At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New England has continuity and cohesion on defense with a unit that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Bill Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 PPG. The offense is trying to put the defense in a position to succeed by running the football, limiting turnovers, and burning time off the clock. The Patriots are averaging 37.5 rushing attempts per game which has resulted them in being on offense for just under 35 minutes per game. This is a recipe for lower-scoring games. New England has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. But the Patriots are only generating 300.0 total Yards-Per-Game with this approach which is resulting in just 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Aaron Rodgers is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The Jets' defense remains good after holding the Titans last week to just 300 yards. They lead the NFL with a pressure rate of 44% against opponent dropbacks — and that could spell trouble for the Patriots’ Jacoby Brissett. New England ranks third-to-last in the league by allowing a pressure rate on 24% of their dropbacks — and they will be without left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow for tonight’s game. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home after a victory. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals — and they have played 4 straight Unders against the Patriots. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: After 24 years, the Patriots move on to Year One of the post-Bill Belichick era after they bottomed out with a 4-13 record last season. The offense stagnated without Tom Brady under center — they tied for last in the league by scoring only 13.9 Points-Per-Game. Why did this happen? (1) Poor coaching? (2) Mac Jones was not the answer at quarterback? (3) Lack of talent at wide receiver? I tend to think the blame on the coaching staff — even when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were moonlighting as offensive coaches two years ago — was overblown. In hindsight, Jones looks like a head case. Certainly, it is fair to say that Belichick did not put him in a position to succeed with skill position talent — especially at wide receiver. Jones’ lack of mobility compounded that problem. Jones is gone — and rookie Drake May is the future at quarterback. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator — and with the hiring of special assistant Ben McAdoo, the offense adopted the West Coast principles of the Green Bay offense before Matt LaFleur arrived. McAdoo was the previous Packers' offensive coordinator with Van Pelt the Quarterbacks Coach. Van Pelt is deploying a run-first approach that will set up play-action passes. He has emphasized more wide zone run schemes than this offense had used previously — and this seems to have unlocked running back Rhamondre Stevenson who has rushed for 201 yards so far this season. Stevenson ranks eighth in the NFL for rushers with at least 20 carries by generating +3.09 yards after contact — and now he faces a Jets’ defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed after contact against opposing rushers. The Patriots added Antonio Gibson in the offseason as a change of pace back — and he rushed for 96 yards from 11 carries last week. Pelt is also committing to the run with his personnel choices as they have deployed six or more offensive linemen 26 times this season while running the ball in 25 of those occasions — that leads the league. The offensive line is solid but banged up for this game — but there is depth and run-blocking is easier than pass-blocking. The team also signed Jacoby Brissett as a veteran placeholder at QB who enjoyed his best professional season in 2022 under Van Pelt’s guidance. He has not thrown an interception this season (knock on wood …). New England has continuity and cohesion on the other side of the ball with a defense that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 Points-Per-Game. Better play at quarterback from a year ago with at least some upgrade at the skill positions along with another tough defense could have the Patriots fighting for a playoff spot — remember, they made the playoffs three years ago and were still mathematically alive going into Week 17 two seasons ago. New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after a loss at home. They have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. In last year’s offseason in the first year with Aaron Rodgers under center, I questioned how the locker room would deal with all the distractions that have become part of the package of having the former MVP at quarterback. General manager Joe Douglass and head coach Robert Saleh were on the hot seat and seemingly going all-in on the Rodgers gamble. I also wondered if the Rodgers reconnection with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator during some of his best seasons in Green Bay, would be fruitful or was Hackett simply his “yes man” who got exposed as a coach out of his element in his one season as the Denver head coach. A year later, we lack answers to those questions since Rodgers lasted only four snaps before he suffered his season-ending Achilles injury. Douglass, Saleh, and even Hackett were given mulligans after that injury on Monday Night Football. But now the seats are even hotter with everything banking on Rodgers successfully recovering from a serious leg injury at 40 years old. And the distractions keep marching on. Rodgers kept teasing that his recovery was ahead of schedule and that he could make a near-miraculous return late in the season. While less than a fourth-month recovery from a torn Achilles is rare, Rodgers claimed his innovative training and healing techniques (including listening to dolphin sounds) would have him ready. But inevitably in a scene reminiscent of NBA players begging to “hold me back” from on-the-court fights that no one ever planned to initiate, Rodgers’ services were never required in late December with the Jets limping to another 7-10 record. Since then, some of Rodgers’ antics include a few days where he was being considered to be the Vice Presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy’s vanity presidential bid before later blowing off mandatory training camp sessions for his “previously scheduled” trip to Egypt. It is hard not to consider Rodgers simply a carnival barker at this point of his career when he keeps on sounding like a carnival barker. He is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The pressure cooker is tight for teams that are in Super Bowl or bust mode  — especially ones that have not even made the playoffs since 2010. This team knows it is under the national spotlight tonight for Thursday Night Football. A big concern is that the defense has not played as well as last season. They rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 5.4 Yards-Per-Play. They also lost defensive end Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending Achilles injury last week. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings against the Jets. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 18-10 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 34-29 win against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite in Brazil last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Falcons' defense for the loss last week — they held the Steelers to just 270 yards of offense despite being on the field for 35:36 minutes of that game. The Falcons have a good defense that ranked 12th in the NFL in Expected Points Allowed per Play and fifth in Opponent Success Rate against the Pass — and they added two quality veterans last month by trading for defensive end Matthew Judon and strong safety Justin Simmons. The problem for Atlanta was their sluggish offense which only gained 226 yards of offense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins only completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards — and he looked limited with his mobility in his return from his Achilles injury last season. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49-point range, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Philadelphia survived their game in Brazil against the Packers despite a -2 net turnover margin — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Head coach Nick Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown (and, BTW, he is out for tonight’s game with an injury) or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high — and he threw two more picks against Green Bay. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? They failed to get a first down on their lone push-tush last week.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football — and the Falcons have played 9 straight Unders when playing in Prime-Time. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (291) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 18-10 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 34-29 win against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite in Brazil last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: I did not like the decision to sign Kirk Cousins as a free agent and then draft Michael Penix in the first round because of the opportunity costs. Sacrificing either a first round pick for a Cousins-led team or $100 million in guaranteed money against the salary cap with Penix under center limits the potential ceiling regarding how far this team can go in the next two seasons. But moves were fine if just looking at them in a vacuum. It was always unreasonable to expect Cousins to be at peak play in his first game back from his Achilles injury while adjusting to a new system. And facing a stout Steelers defense led by T.J. Watt was as bad an opening matchup as could have been drawn up. Cousins should play better this week — especially since the Eagles lack a pass rusher who is near the level of of Watt. Head coach Raheem Morris should have this team ready to compete tonight. His previous teams when he was the head coach for Tampa Bay covered the point spread in 10 of their 16 games after a loss at home — and they covered the point spread in all 4 of their games after an upset loss. Additionally, Morris’ teams have covered the point spread in 17 of their 28 games on the road as an underdog. The Falcons have a good defense that ranked 12th in the NFL in Expected Points Allowed per Play and fifth in Opponent Success Rate against the Pass — and they added two quality veterans last month by trading for defensive end Matthew Judon and strong safety Justin Simmons. Those were moves that would only be made by general manager Terry Fontenot if the coaching staff was pleased with the progress of Cousins in training camp. Philadelphia got outgained last week by four yards in their victory against the Packers — and they somehow won that game despite a -2 net turnover margin. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover. Of note in that game last week was that the Philly defense surrendered 414 total yards of offense. My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season; They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox retired and linebacker Hassan Reddick was traded to the New York Jets. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown (and, BTW, he is out for tonight’s game with an injury) or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high — and he threw two more against the Packers. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. Now after a big win last week, the Eagles return home as conquering heroes with everything supposedly fixed — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against an NFC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against the NFC. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (291) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (290) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (289). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: I found it hard to be optimistic about the Texans going into last year after a three-year run where they had an 11-38-1 record. But rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans had an immediate impact on this team — and C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. But, on the other hand, general manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level of this roster. He traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to offer more weapons for Stroud. He signed 14 free agents and drafted another five players for a defense that ranked 14th in the NFL by allowing 330.7 total YPG. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. There may be too much talent in the locker room with Stroud that can push away the Regression Gods. The Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set higher than 41. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games following a game against an AFC South rival. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Bears. The Chicago hype revolves around Caleb Williams whom the Bears selected in the first pick in the NFL draft — and general manager Ryan Poles will not be accused of not putting their next potential franchise quarterback into a position to succeed this time around. After trading for wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster an anemic wide receiver room for Justin Fields last year, Poles traded for Keenan Allen from the Chargers and signed running back D’Andre Swift as a free agent who can catch balls out of the backfield. Poles also drafted Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth pick in the draft — and the fully-capable X wideout as the third option in this attack along with tight end Cole Kmet who caught 73 balls last year makes this offense look much, much better than in years past. The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One — and now he is playing his first NFL game in a hostile environment. The Bears enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Williams inherits a dismal Chicago legacy in prime-time games as the Bears are just 12-28-2 ATS in their last 42 games played at night. The Bears have also lost and failed to cover the point spread in all 7 of their appearances on Sunday Night Football — and they lost all seven of those games by double-digits. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (290) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One. But don’t sleep on this Bears defense that made dramatic improvements in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — and they held the Titans to just 244 yards of offense. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home. They also enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Houston held the Colts to only 303 total yards in their narrow victory last week. The Texans ranked 11th in the NFL last season by allowing just 20.8 Points-Per-Game — and they should be better this year. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Houston scored 24.5 PPG at home in their nine regular season games last year — but they did not score more than 22 points in six of those nine home games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range — and the Bears have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (281) plus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (282). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 28-6 loss at home to Minnesota as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (0-1) opened their season with a 37-20 loss at Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINT(S): It was as bad a start as possible for the Giants in Week One with confidence in quarterback Daniel Jones perhaps hitting an all-time low after he completed only 22 of 42 passes for 186 with two interceptions last week. But the books have New York as just a small underdog in this game for a reason. The Giants did not nearly as bad as they did in their opener last year where they got humiliated at home against Dallas by a 40-0 score. The following week, they went on the road to beat Arizona by a 31-28 score. There are five other teams in the history of the NFL to lose two straight openers by 20 or more points — and those teams have won and covered the point spread in 4 of those 5 games. New York has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss under head coach Brian Daboll. Even with Jones as their QB, the Giants have rebounded to cover the point spread in 21 of their 35 games after a loss. Daboll, Jones, and general manager Joe Shoen and Jones are all on the hot seat in a make-it-or-break-it year. Daboll has reshuffled his coaching staff headlined by new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. Injuries played a big role in their 6-11 campaign last season — so the offensive line could improve if they stay healthy. Jones regressed after an encouraging first year under Daboll — but better protection could get him back to his 2022-23 form. Saquon Barkley was not resigned with the offense turning to a running back by committee approach. After ranking last in Explosive Plays, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers was drafted in the first round — and he is healthy to play this afternoon after dealing with an injury. The Giants have been more effective on the road relative to point spread expectations as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against fellow NFC East rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 30 games as an underdog. The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator to help the former college head coach of Patrick Mahomes continue his failing upward career trajectory. Kingsbury has been in the same room with some talented quarterbacks — but now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line that allowed Sam Howell to get sacked a league-leading 65 times last year. Daniels is thin and took too many hits last year — if his breakout senior season was a product of great talent at wide receiver at LSU, it could be a long season for the Commanders. He ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns last week as he drew comparisons as the next Lamar Jackson — but while he completed 17 of 24 passes, he was too often simply dumping the ball off as he only threw for 184 yards. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a loss by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after allowing 30 or more points. The Commanders make their debut at home at FedEx Field in the Quinn and Daniels era — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. Quinn’s journey to rebuild this defense looks to be a long one after they allowed Baker Mayfield to torch them for 392 total yards. And Washington already has kicker issues after cutting Cade York this week after he missed two field goals. They signed Austin Siebert off the street to take over the place-kicking duties.

FINAL TAKE: Jones is never more confident than when he is playing the Commanders — he is 5-1-1 straight up in his seven starts while covering the points spread in 6 of those 7 games. Daboll has covered the point spread in all 4 of his games against Washington (as an underdog in all four games, BTW) — covering the point spread by 11.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (281) plus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 9/14:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the Virginia Cavaliers plus (or minus) the points versus the Maryland Terrapins. Virginia (2-0) looks to build off their 31-30 win at Wake Forest as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They return home looking to avenge their 42-14 loss at Maryland last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Maryland (1-1) looks to rebound from a 27-24 upset loss at home to Michigan State as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Terrapins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. Take Virginia plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is now on a 66 of 110 (60%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after CA$HING the Washington State-Washington Under in the Apple Cup in college football just now! Now Frank has tonight’s Toledo-Mississippi State ATS winner on ESPNU at 7:30 PM ET for his 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-23 loss at Arizona State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Toledo (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 38-23 win against UMass as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a get-right game for Mississippi State under rookie head coach Jeff Lebby. The former offensive coordinator at Oklahoma and Ole Miss mentioned in his press conference after last week’s game that he is focusing on getting off to a better start by his team this week. The Bulldogs went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score before they made it a game in the second half by outscoring the Sun Devils on the road by a 16-3 score. They nearly overcame a devastating fumble on their one-yard line that Arizona State scooped up to score a defensive touchdown. Senior transfer quarterback from Baylor Blake Shapen played well in a hostile environment by completing 18 of 28 passes for 268 passing yards while throwing two touchdown passes without an interception. Mississippi State returns home to Davis Wade Stadium where they crushed Eastern Kentucky two weeks ago by a 56-7 score. The Bulldogs have covered the points spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 range. Toledo was fortunate to get past the Minutemen after they outgained by -126 net yards. The Rockets only gained 258 yards of offense and lost the first down battle by a 12 to 23 margin. They only produced a 26% Success Rate on their offensive plays. They benefitted from a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that immediately restored their seven-point lead in the second quarter. And the final score was deceptive since UMass failed at an onside kick after scoring a late touchdown with less than three minutes to go which gave Toledo a short field from which they scored a final touchdown to ice the game. Quarterback Tucker Gleason completed only 8 of 23 passes for 175 yards — he has completed less than 50% of his passes in over 200 career passes. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road after a victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win on their home field. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 37 or more points. Now after playing Duquesne and then the Minutemen at home, they go on the road for a big step up in competition against a Power Four program. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog under head coach Jason Candle. This is a rebuilding year for Candle with just eight starters back from their 11-3 team from last season. They lost three of their four starters in the secondary with two now playing in the NFL and one leaving in the transfer portal — and that leaves an inexperienced defensive backfield against this Bulldogs passing attack under Lebby.

FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played in September — and Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (137) and the Washington Huskies (138). THE SITUATION: Washington State (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 37-16 upset win against Texas Tech as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Washington (2-0) has won their first two games after their 30-9 win against Eastern Michigan as a 24.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars' defense has been of the bend-but-don’t-break variety as they have only given up 46 points despite ranking 124th in the nation in yards allowed. The formula for success in their “Super Bowl” game this season with the Pac-12 in transition will be to run the football and burn time off the clock. Washington State rushed for 301 yards against the Red Raiders last week. Sophomore quarterback Josh Mateer has struggled with his accuracy. He only completed 9 of 19 passes for 115 yards last week. This is a much different offense for head coach Jake Dickert after quarterback Cam Ward left the program in the offseason for Miami (FL). The Cougars have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 15 games in the first half of the season, Washington State has played 10 of these games Under the Total. Washington held the Eagles to just 204 yards of offense last week in their 21-point win. Two games into the Jedd Fisch era as the Huskies new head coach and it has been the defense that has stood out. They have held their first two opponents to just 228.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 3.4 Yards-Per-Play — and neither of those teams reached the end zone against them. Fisch’s teams have 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing in September. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have also played 4 straight Unders after a victory at home by 17 or more points. Former Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers is the new starting quarterback for this program — he completed 21 of 26 passes for 261 yards with four touchdown passes last week. But after playing Weber State and Eastern Michigan, this is the first big test for this new offense and their first game played away from Husky Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: The Apple Cup involves a team from the Big Ten as we enter a Brave New World. Fisch’s teams have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and the Cougars have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12. 10* CFB Washington State-Washington O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (137) and the Washington Huskies (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). THE SITUATION: Kansas (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 23-17 upset loss at Illinois as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. UNLV (2-0) comes off a 72-14 victory at home against Utah Tech as a 41.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played at the Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City since Kansas is building a new football stadium this year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Lance Leipold will have his team ready to play in this rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last December. Leipold’s teams going back to his previous tenure at Buffalo have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games after an upset loss on the road. His Kansas teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with six days or less of rest.  Leipold has miraculously transformed the Jayhawks into a College Football Playoff contender with the expanded field coinciding with his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters return from the group that finished 9-4 after their 49-36 victory against this UNLV team in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. He now has a veteran roster with 30 seniors including up to 15 who will be starters. Three of their four losses were decided by just one scoring possession. But how far this team can go will likely be determined by the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels who only played in three games last season. The dual-threat junior ranked third in the nation in Total QBR in his nine games played two seasons ago which was good enough for him to be named to the second All-Big 12 squad. Last year, he completed 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception before going down with an injury. On the other side of the ball, Kansas gave up -9.0 fewer Points-Per-Game and -91.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game than their previous season with defensive coordinator Brian Borland more comfortable in varying his schemes given his talent base. The front seven remains small with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, but more improvement with this unit will make things easier for an explosive offense that ranked fourth and third in the nation by scoring 41.7 PPG and generating 507.0 YPG. Daniels can be loose with the football — he threw three interceptions last week with the Fighting Illini returning one for a touchdown in what ended up being the difference in the game. The Jayhawks did hold Illinois to just 271 yards while outgaining them by +56 net yards. Tonight’s game presents a good opportunity for Daniels to learn from those mistakes and get on the same page with first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. Kansas ranks 20th in Success Rate on offense so far this season — and they are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. After ranking 11th in Explosiveness last season, they already have eight explosive plays this year. UNLV opened their season with a 27-7 upset win at Houston before their glorified scrimmage against an FCS school last week. My fundamental question regarding the Rebels last season was whether first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas. The answer was a resounding “Yes!” UNLV won nine of their first 11 games with their two losses being to eventual National Champion Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and at Fresno State. They reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where they lost at Boise State by a 44-20 score. Eleven starters return — and Odom is doing a nice job of using the transfer portal to poach offensive skill position talent from the FCS level and former blue-chip defensive backs who are looking for second chances after struggling at Power Four schools. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a rising star with his “Go-Go” up-tempo run-first offense that is heavy on pre-snap motion and flexible formations. The front seven was solid — UNLV ranked 33rd in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 42nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. But the Rebels ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing 415.5 total Yards-Per-Game because of their pass defense that ranked 111st by surrendering 253.7 passing YPG. The biggest loss in the offseason was sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava transferring to USC after being named the MWC Freshman of the Year. Odom dipped into the FCS ranks to bring in two transfer quarterbacks with dual-threat skills — and Patriot League Player of the Year Matthew Sluka seized the starting job in the fall. Sluka has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 46.7% of his passes. Last week’s game should have been an opportunity for him to build some confidence in the passing game — but he only completed 8 of 17 passes against the Utah Tech defense. Let’s remember that the Rebels lost their last three games of the season and only beat two of the seven teams who played in bowl games last year. They were 6-2 in conference play — but they only outgained MWC opponents by just 31 YPG. The defense got exposed when facing good offenses. Michigan scored 31 points against them while generating 8.1 Yards-Per-Play. Fresno State scored 31 points and averaged 5.1 YPP. San Jose State averaged 7.3 YPP en route to their 37 points. Boise State’s 44 points came from them generating 8.0 YPP. And in the bowl game, the Jayhawks gained 591 total yards by averaging 10.2 YPP while generating 449 yards in the air with six touchdown passes.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has revenge on their minds but it may be Borland and the Kansas defensive coaches who will benefit more from recently facing Marion’s Go-Go approach on offense. The Rebels only rushed for 95 yards in that game from a 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry average — so the onus may be on Sluka to win this game with his arm. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UNLV-Kansas ESPN Special with the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (103) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The conventional wisdom is that the Bills began running the ball more when Ken Dorsey was fired and replaced by Joe Brady as offensive coordinator on November 14th — but I witnessed the seeds of this transformation earlier in the season in the second half of their game against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football after going into halftime trailing by a 6-0 score. Buffalo patiently leaned on their running game to grind out a 14-9 victory in what I saw as a foreshadowing of what this team will become moving forward. I can only imagine the verbal lashing head coach Sean McDermott unleashed on Dorsey at halftime of that game. Dorsey was fired about a month later. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are now gone — but I am encouraged by these moves. Sure, these changes can be evaluated as “addition via subtraction.” Diggs was inefficient and a diva wanting the ball — and Allen froze him out in the second half of the season. Davis perpetually underachieved. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applaud McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons. I think a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world. I like the shift in direction of this team as it better synchs with McDermott’s defensive tendencies. This approach may be grounded from their ability to dominate this Dolphins team. Buffalo has beaten Miami in 10 of their last 11 games against them while generating 417 Yards-Per-Game and scoring 34 Points-Per-Game. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game and they outgained by the Dolphins by +198 net yards. The Bills gained 473 yards in that game while holding Miami to just 275 total yards despite that game being played at Hard Rock Stadium. They held the Dolphins to just 20 points in their 48-20 victory in October. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season. For Miami, the biggest priority in the offseason last year seemed to be figuring out how to keep quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy after he suffered what was probably three concussions during the season. He is the essential point guard that makes head coach Mike McDaniels’ offense go — and he played an entire season for the first time since 2018. But it is fair to say the offense is limited at times since McDaniels and Tagovailoa are highly reluctant to attempt to gain yards from QB run plays. And while the media proclaimed McDaniels an offensive genius by his second game as head coach of the Dolphins, the dirty little secret is that his play-calling tends to get predictable in short-yardage, on third downs, and in the red zone. I wonder if the urgency to keep his quarterback safe limits his flexibility in these moments. Miami loves to emphasize their speed — but perhaps their league-leading 401.3 Yards-Per-Game last season is more a reflection of them being Flat Track Bullies than the genius of McDaniels? The Dolphins won 10 of their 11 games against sub-.500 teams last year — but they lost six of their seven games against teams with a winning record including that 28-point loss to Buffalo, a 37-point loss to Baltimore, and then their 26-7 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs. The problems Miami has in cold weather are well-documented with those conditions neutralizing their speed advantage. But good teams tend to have speed too — so maybe this offense simply hits a wall when facing similar talent? And good teams tend to expose the Dolphins' defense which was supposed to significantly improve under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. While Miami gave up -0.5 fewer Points-Per-Game and -19.5 YPG, their defense ranked just 19th in Defensive DVOA — and there was speculation that Fangio clashed with players inside the building. I wonder if Fangio’s frustration was a by-product of the culture McDaniel has fostered. Fangio is now gone — and McDaniels’ third defensive coordinator in three seasons is Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver. Gone is star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who signed for a big payday in Las Vegas. Cornerback Xavien Howard was a salary cap casualty. The unit was not helped late in the season when both Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb suffered season-ending injuries — and Chubb has started the season on the PUP list. There are injuries in the running back room as well with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. Being less than at full strength at running back is not a good development for this team since Tagovailoa only averages 207.7 passing Yards-Per-Game with a Passer Rating of 77.4 in his seven games against the Bills.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 5-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing at home. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (103) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 270 total yards of offense. One of the Arizona touchdowns came from a 96-yard kickoff return. Defensive end Greg Rousseau registered three sacks — but it was Von Miller’s one sack and five hits on the quarterback that might be the most encouraging aspect of their play on defense last week. Von Miller only played 258 snaps in an injury-plagued season last year — it would be a boon for this defense if he regains the form he enjoyed when playing for the Los Angeles Rams in their Super win three years ago. The offense continued their focus on running the football under offensive coordinator Joe Brady who took over in November for Ken Dorsey. The Bills ran the ball 33 times while asking Josh Allen to pass only 23 times. Running the ball is a recipe for lower-scoring games — and it has the additional benefit of keeping the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game. The Bills have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range with Sean McDermott as their head coach. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. Miami’s defense played well last week as they held the Jaguars to just 267 total yards for former Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver who has taken over as their defensive coordinator. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster their defense led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. The offense is dealing with injuries at running back with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. The Dolphins have played 13 of their 18 games Under the Total when playing at home under head coach Mike McDaniel — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 6 of their 7 games played on a Thursday Under the Total in the McDermott era — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins anew after missing the playoffs for the 13th straight season with their 7-10 record last year. San Francisco (0-0) comes off their 25-22 loss in overtime against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York gets Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a season-ending injury on the first Monday night last year. Multiple reports indicate he looked very sharp in training camp — but it might be too much to expect a 40-year-old coming off major leg surgery to retain his same mobility. I expect the Jets to lean heavily on running back Breece Hall and their outstanding defense to grind out games. They only scored 15.8 Points-Per-Game last season while ranking second-to-last in the NFL by generating just 268.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Jets’ defense remains elite after only giving up 209 PPG and 292.3 total YPG — both marks were third best in the league and they also ranked third in the NFL in the Football Outsiders DVOA ranking and third in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total. It has been a noisy offseason for the 49ers. Running back Christian McCaffrey strained his Achilles early in training camp so he has not practiced much — and his health for this game remains a question. Left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out for the entire training camp demanding to renegotiate their contracts. While both stars eventually got their way in the last few days, they have not practiced much at all and may get limited action on the field tonight. As we witnessed last night, even the explosive Detroit Lions offense was sluggish last night in their opener despite playing at home against a defense with two rookies starting in the front seven (only 20 points in regulation!?!). The Niners’ offense looks primed to experience some rough patches as they get back in sync. And if Williams cannot anchor the offensive line, this team struggles as San Francisco has lost five straight games when Williams is not on the field for at least 50% of the snaps — and they averaged only 17.4 PPG in those games by scoring just 20, 19, 17, 17, and 14 points in those contests. The 49ers defense remains very good after allowing only 17.5 PPG last season which was the third-lowest mark in the league. There should be better cohesion on that side of the ball after some philosophical differences between head coach Kyle Shanahan and previous defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Nick Sorensen got promoted to run the defense. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams deployed their version of the four-corners offense in basketball last night by burning time off the clock when they had the ball last night — and I expect both teams to deploy similar strategies tonight. In Rodgers’ last full season in 2022 with Green Bay, they ranked tied for last (with the 49ers) in the NFL by averaging 31.0 seconds per play. San Francisco led the league last year by averaging 30.8 seconds per play. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins anew after missing the playoffs for the 13th straight season with their 7-10 record last year. San Francisco (0-0) comes off their 25-22 loss in overtime against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a noisy offseason for the 49ers. Left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out for the entire training camp demanding to renegotiate their contracts. While both stars eventually got their way in the last few days, they have not practiced much at all and may get limited action on the field tonight. Running back Christian McCaffrey strained his Achilles early in training camp so he has not practiced much — and his health for this game remains a question. Mounting injuries in the preseason led to head coach Kyle Shanahan having to cancel a joint scrimmage with New Orleans. There was the emotional shock of Ricky Pearsall getting shot last week. Those are plenty of distractions for any team — but for an organization coming off an overtime loss in the Super Bowl, it may only fuel the typical Super Bowl hangover the loser of that game tends to suffer. The loser of the Super Bowl has lost 14 of the last 24 opening games to the new season — and these runner-ups have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of those 24 games. And when these Super Bowl losers are favored by more than three points, while they have won 9 of their 13 games in Week One, they failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those 13 contests. If Williams cannot anchor the offensive line, this team struggles as San Francisco has lost five straight games when Williams is not on the field for at least 50% of the snaps. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games of a new season under Shanahan. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those games. New York gets Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a season-ending injury in the first Monday night last year. Multiple reports indicate he looked very sharp in training camp. He has won his last ten appearances on Monday Night Football. He certainly has plenty of weapons including wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams and running back Breece Hall. Rodgers’ teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing the role of the underdog. Rodgers also benefits from the luxury of an outstanding defense that ranked third in the NFL in the Football Outsiders DVOA ranking as well as third in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. The Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in the first half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers had covered the point spread in ten straight games at home culminating in a 42-10 win against Dallas on October 8th — but they have since failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games at home. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Jets (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-0) returns to the field after their heartbreaking 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog the previous week.

REASONS TO THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit plays their first home game since beating Matthew Stafford and this Rams team in the postseason last January. The Lions have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams from the NFC. It is going to be difficult for the Los Angeles defense to slow down this explosive Detroit offense as they learn to live life without future Hall-of-Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. They traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones with a looming expiring contract with him —  and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. Expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing in a domed stadium.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Detroit (0-0) lost the next week in a 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have played 8 of their last 19 games Over the Total when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Lions now get a playoff rematch against a Rams team learning to live life without future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Los Angeles also traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones they were facing a looming expiring contract with him —  and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. There are issues with the Rams’ offensive line that gave me pause as well — but right tackle Rob Havenstein who is listed as questionable looks to play which minimizes the loss of suspended left tackle Alaric Jackson. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford should be fine — and he will never be healthier than he in Week One. He has plenty of motivation in another return to Detroit to play against his former team. When Stafford had wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua along with running back Kyren Williams on the field, the Rams generated a whopping 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Los Angeles will move the ball in the air against this suspect Lions defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 247.4 passing YPG. Once again, Detroit rebuilt their secondary which included drafting two rookies in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. But it will take time for them to get up to speed against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. The Lions were last in the league by allowing 69 receptions of 20 or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and Detroit has played 15 of their last 17 opening weeks to the new season Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (470) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (469). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (0-0) comes off a 9-8 season where they missed the playoffs after a 23-19 loss at home to the Texans as a 1-point underdog in the final week of the regular season. Houston (0-0) finished 10-7 in the regular before advancing to the AFC Divisional Round where they lost on the road against Baltimore by a 34-10 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans have been one of the most hyped-up teams in the offseason given their 45-14 victory against Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs and the vast potential of C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. But Gardner Minshew was a dropped pass away from leading the Colts to victory and taking Houston’s spot in the playoffs. Indianapolis outgained the Texans by 54 net yards in that game as well — and they held Stroud and the Houston offense to just 306 total yards. Now this Indy team gets Anthony Richardson back at quarterback who led the team to a fast start in the first half before getting knocked out of that game with an injury in their 31-20 victory at home against Houston in Week Two last year. The easy question regarding the Colts is how good Richardson can be in his second season after only throwing 84 passes last season (and can he stay healthy?). I think the real question is how good the supporting cast is for him or the 39-year-old Joe Flacco beyond the quarterback position. General manager Chris Ballard’s priorities in the offseason were resigning wide receiver Michael Pittman, defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and linebacker Zaire Franklin. Indianapolis ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 349.8 Yards-Per-Game — but that number rose to 371.1 YPG when playing at home which helped them generate 25.7 Points-Per-Game. They outgained their guests by +18.4 net YPG when playing at home at Lucas Oil Stadium. What makes Richardson a potential generational talent is his dual-threat capabilities. He generated 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry while rushing for four touchdowns in his four games last year. I’m not down on Houston — I just think they are overvalued in this opening game spot as a road favorite against a divisional rival pining for this revenge opportunity for the entire offseason. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They had a 7-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were outclassed in the AFC Divisional Playoff round in a 34-10 loss to Baltimore. The Texans struggled to offer Stroud a credible rushing attack — they failed to rush for at least 100 yards in 12 of their games. They did sign Joe Mixon from Cincinnati in the offseason — but he has not generated more than 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry since the 2018 season. Offensive coordinator deploys a zone-blocking run scheme which is an approach Mixon has struggled with in his career. The Texans were a better statistical team at home last season. On the road, Houston only scored 18.4 PPG and generated 301.6 YPG  — and they were outscored by -4.3 net PPG while getting outgained by -29.8 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games as a favorite last season — and the Colts covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games when playing with equal rest. 25* NFL AFC South Underdog of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (470) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). THE SITUATION: California (1-0) won their opening game of the season in a 31-13 win against UC-Davis as a 20.5-point favorite last Saturday. Auburn (1-0) began their season with a 73-3 victory against Alabama A&M as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal looked sluggish last week by only gaining 281 yards of offense against the Aggies — but they were holding some things back to save for this game. First-team All-Pac 12 running back Jaydn Ott only ran the ball 14 times for 49 yards — but he did score two touchdowns. The Golden Bears went into halftime with just a 14-13 lead — but they controlled the second half by outscoring UC-Davis by a 17-0 margin to pull away for the comfortable victory. They held the Aggies to just 304 total yards of offense — and they gave up only one offensive touchdown with UC-Davis scoring on a six-yard fumble recovery. Head coach Justin Wilcox has 15 starters back from the team that finished 6-7 after a 34-14 loss to Texas Tech as a 3-point underdog in the Independence Bowl. The Golden Bears did win their final three games of the regular season to become bowl-eligible. This may be Wilcox’s best team at Cal since his 2019 team that finished 8-5. The offensive line returns seven players with starting experience who entered the year with 117 combined starts. While Wilcox brought in former North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers in the transfer portal, it was sophomore Fernando Mendoza under center again after starting eight games last season. He was efficient last week by completing 15 of 22 passes for 158 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. The defense has eight starters back. Cal has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing with equal rest with their opponent. The Golden Bears have been very reliable in spots like this having covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games on the road as an underdog under Wilcox. They have also won four of their last seven games on the road against teams outside their conference — and they have covered the point spread in all 7 of those games. Auburn’s offense was only on the field for 13:26 minutes last week but still racked up 728 yards of offense in their glorified scrimmage against Alabama A&M. Hosting cupcakes before taking on SEC opponents has been the standard operating procedure for the Tigers — this game is the first time they are playing at home against a non-conference Power Five/Power Four program scene 2016. They have 17 starters back from the group that finished 6-7 last season after getting upset by Maryland in the Music City Bowl by a 31-13 score as a 4-point favorite. The defense replaced five players who got drafted into the NFL. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored by at least a touchdown up to -37 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Berkeley last season with the Tigers pulling out a 14-10 victory as a 6-point road favorite — so Cal will have revenge on their mind while confident they can compete after outgaining the Tigers by 43 net yards on the strength of their defense that gave up only 230 yards of offense. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against opponents outside the SEC. 10* CFB California-Auburn ESPN2 Special with the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (453) and the Philadelphia Eagles (454). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) finished 10-9 last season after their 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) finished 11-7 last year after their 32-9 loss in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers in the NFC Wildcard Round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This opening game involves two veteran head coach who should see significant improvement on the defensive side of the football after hiring new defensive coordinators who are immediate upgrades. Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni was bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season. And to no surprise, the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving. They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. Sirianni tapped Vic Fangio to run his defense this season — the 65-year-old is considered the architect of the two-high safety shell defense that is all the rage right now to limit big-play explosiveness in the modern pass-happy league. General manager Howie Roseman also addressed the embattled defensive secondary by drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the first two rounds of the NFL draft and resigning C.J. Gardner-Johnson who left the team two years ago to sign as a free agent in Detroit. On the other side of the ball, the offense may struggle to adapt to new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Quarterback Jalen Hurts described the offense as 95% new — and he did not play a snap in the preseason so rust is likely. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when favored by up to a touchdown. The Green Bay offense may also be rusty out of the gate since quarterback Jordan Love only threw two passes in the preseason. Head coach Matt LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42 to 51-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I suspect both offenses will be sluggish in their execution playing in Brazil in this opener after getting very little action in the preseason exhibition games. These two teams have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against each other — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing against each other away from Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Friday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (453) and the Philadelphia Eagles (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (453) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (454). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) finished 10-9 last season after their 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) finished 11-7 last year after their 32-9 loss in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers in the NFC Wildcard Round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, I think LaFleur deserves a ton of credit — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers which makes me still consider if the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers' defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games away from home if not favored by three or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with equal rest as their opponent. My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season. They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox returned and linebacker Hassan Reddick. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Despite how ugly Philadelphia looked last season, DraftKings opened with them as a 1.5-point favorite back in April — and the betting public has been on the Eagles ever since in expecting them to bounce back from their slide. If they do, it will take some time given all the changes. They are just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC rivals — and the Packers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against NFC foes. 25* NFL Peacock Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (453) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) looks to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at home against the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 4.5-point underdog on January 28th. Kansas City (0-0) begins their quest for a three-peat after their 25-22 victory in overtime against San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog in the Super Bowl last February.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 22 points that the 49ers scored against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl was just the third time all season that they had given up more than 21 points — and the most points they gave up all season was the 27 points that Green Bay scored against them at Lambeau Field in December. They held seven of their last nine opponents last season to 20 or fewer points. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City scored 21 points or less in 11 of their games. Veach addressed that unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. In theory, the deep threat both players offer will open things up — but Brown remains out from the injury he suffered in the opening week of the preseason. Worthy is an intriguing prospect — but it is unlikely the rookie will unlock this offense by himself in Week One. The Chiefs have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning their previous game on the road. And while Kansas City closed out last season on a six-game winning streak, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when riding a winning streak of four or more games. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And in their last 9 games at home, they have played 8 of these games Under the Total. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when Spagnuolo had two or more weeks to prepare for their opponent. Spags may simply have Jackson’s number. Jackson has only completed 55.7% of his passes against the Chiefs in his career while averaging only 204.4 passing YPG. He has five touchdown passes but three interceptions — and his Passer Rating against them is only 78.1. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The Ravens defense does have nine starters back from their unit that led the NFL by giving up only 16.4 Points-Per-Game — and they were second in the league in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in the Ravens’ last 14 games against fellow AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total against Baltimore. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) begins their quest for a three-peat after their 25-22 victory in overtime against San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog in the Super Bowl last February. Baltimore (0-0) looks to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at home against the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 4.5-point underdog on January 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons. Now Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. Brown is injured for this game but Worthy will play and Reid has indicated that Justin Watson will get plenty of snaps taking Brown’s role on the field after he generated 17.0 Yards-Per-Reception last season. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. Rice will play tonight — he has a looming suspension for off-the-field issues but the league has not resolved that matter. The Chiefs closed the season on a six-game winning streak — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or more games in a row while covering the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning five or more games in a row. While Week One is not an official bye week, Reid has had at least two weeks to prepare which invokes his 22-14 ATS mark with Kansas City when has had extra time to prepare for his next game. In season openers with the Chiefs, Reid’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their 11 games with nine straight-up wins. After getting upset last season by Detroit, Kansas City should have an extra chip on their shoulder to get an opening night win in front of their home fans. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against conference opponents. For Baltimore in hindsight, the philosophical change on offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken was (mostly) wildly successful. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. The Baltimore offense ranked third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. But after a dominant 13-4 regular season where they outscored their opponents by +12.1 Points-Per-Game and then blowing out Houston by a 34-10 score in the AFC Divisional playoff round, the struggles in the playoffs reared its ugly head again for Jackson against his arch-nemesis in the Chiefs. Why was it that the Ravens only handed the ball off to a running back eight times in that game despite a good offensive line that helped them lead the league in rushing? Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took away the run and dared Baltimore to win the game behind Jackson’s arm — and they couldn’t do it. Again. Spagnuolo may simply have Jackson’s number. Jackson has only completed 55.7% of his passes against the Chiefs in his career while averaging only 204.4 passing YPG. He has five touchdown passes but three interceptions — and his Passer Rating against them is only 78.1. Mahomes, on the other hand, has a 72.8% completion percentage while averaging 344.0 passing YPG against the tough Ravens’ defenses over the years. He has thrown 13 touchdown passes against Baltimore with only two interceptions — and he has a 115.5 Passer Rating against them in his career. And then there were the losses in the offseason for the Ravens. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The defense returns nine starters from a group that led the league by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG — but that unit will miss linebacker Patrick Queen who signed with their arch-rival Pittsburgh. The bigger concern on that side of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr takes over defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. General manager Eric DeCosta signed the 30-year-old Derrick Henry to a two-year deal — but he is coming off a career-low 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry and has plenty of tread on the tires. Perhaps the second half mistakes against the Chiefs were just part of the journey this franchise needs to take under Jackson before climbing the mountain. But it sure seems like a missed opportunity, in hindsight. The Ravens have now failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Kansas City — and they do not appear to be as good an overall team on September 5th as they were back on January 28th.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (220) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (219). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 24-21 upset loss against Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland last Saturday. Boston College (0-0) makes their season debut tonight returning 17 starters from the group that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 win against SMU in the Fenway Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Yellow Jackets last week after concluding they were undervalued in that game. I also worried about Florida State perhaps looking past that team that has been rebuilding for years in the post-Paul Johnson era. The Seminoles may think they have become a top-five program — and they treated that game like it would be easy for them. My biggest question with this team in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 games in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players, including five from Alabama. Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. Former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien returns to the college ranks as a head coach where he previously was the head coach at Penn State for two seasons after the Joe Paterno controversy. He has also served as the offensive coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban and most recently was the offensive coordinator under Bill Belichick for the New England Patriots last season. But after agreeing to take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State, he then took this job at Boston College on February 9th to give him a late start on this new challenge. What does it say that previous head coach Jeff Hafley concluded that the defensive coordinator job for the Green Bay Packers was a better gig? Are the pressures of coaching in college with the transfer portal and NIL too demanding? Or did Hafley see the writing on the wall given the roster next season after years of him living-and-dying using the transfer portal? The Eagles return 17 starters from the team that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 victory against SMU in the Fenway Bowl. They had a 5-2 record in games decided by seven points or less which covered up for them getting outgained by -3.9 Yards-Per-Game. It was the first time in five seasons that they won more than six games. The defense has continued to slide as they ranked 83rd in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game and they ranked 70th in the country by surrendering 385.1 YPG. Even worse, the Eagles ranked 117th in the nation by giving up 6.1 Yards-Per-Play. The last time Boston College ranked in the top 40 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings was in 2017. O’Brien brought in three transfers to bolster the talent and depth in the defensive backfield, but the front seven may be the bigger concern. The Eagles ranked 118th in the nation by giving up 181.4 rushing YPG and their mere 13 sacks ranked last in the country in Sacks Per Game. Fixing the defense is going to be a long-term project for O’Brien and defensive coordinator Tim Lewis. Florida State should get their ground game tonight against that suspect run defense — and that should set up Uigalelei to have a better game with the running game established. He was solid if unspectacular last week by completing 19 of 27 passes without an interception.

FINAL TAKE: Boston College has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games against the Seminoles — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against them in Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State is the vastly superior team in terms of talent — and they will take their frustrations out on an Eagles team making their season debut with a new coaching staff. 10* CFB Boston College-Florida State ESPN Special with the Florida State Seminoles (220) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) returns 14 starters from a team that finished 9-4 last season culminating in a 16-15 victory against Toledo in the Arizona Bowl. Arizona State (0-0) has ten starters back from their group that finished 3-9 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS:   WYOMING: It is the beginning of a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired in the offseason to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. The team may have peaked last season after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Wyoming has finished .500 or better in seven of the last eight years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. They also have reached a bowl game in six of their last seven (non-pandemic shortened) seasons. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel takes over as the head coach and is not likely to change the core identity of this team. But the offense is not likely to be as conservative as in the past under former Michigan State offensive coordinator Jay Johnson. He will likely bring more spread and tempo concepts to an offense that will still want to impose their will in the ground game. The Cowboys’ running back room has depth and the offensive line returns four starters. Wyoming fans hope that Evan Svoboda wearing #17 will evoke memories of Josh Allen. The junior quarterback has a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He started the game at Texas — and it was 10-10 in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns pulled away — and orchestrated the two winning drives in their bowl game. The defense returns 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. The Cowboys ranked 36th in the nation by holding their opponents to 22.6 Points-Per-Game. The Sun Devils suffered through their second straight 3-9 campaign, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. The former Oregon offensive coordinator also saw his team pull off upsets against Washington State and UCLA. The 34-year-old is working hard on the recruiting trail while being very active in the transfer portal to improve the depth of the roster. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. The defense was reported to have played much better in spring practice. The offense will be led by Sam Leavitt who transferred in from Michigan State after Jaden Rashada left the program for Georgia in the spring. The redshirt freshman has potential but did not get much playing time for the Spartans last season. Both sides of the ball have a long way to go still — and cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing so with many new players. The Sun Devils should be much better — but that does not necessarily mean they will win (or cover the point spread) in more games this season. Arizona State has lost and failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference FBS opponents. They are also 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home against FBS foes. Furthermore, the Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have gone 4-4 in their last eight games on the road against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of those 8 games. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (0-0) returns 18 starters from a team that finished 7-6 last season in their 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 10-3 after a 40-8 victory against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: This game offers a fresh start for a Texas A&M program that remains loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Head coach Jimbo Fisher took his powder keg of a situation in College Station last season and threw dynamite on it by hiring two new coordinators (and former head coaches) with sketchy backgrounds in OC Bobby Petrino and DC D.J. Durkin. After the Aggies lost four the fourth time to Ole Miss in early November, Fisher was fired the next week. Texas A&M finished the season 7-6 but played with heart in a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl despite being without 30 of their players including 12 starts even before starting quarterback Jaylen Henderson left the game on the first play because of injury. The new head coach is Mike Elko who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher from the 2018 through 2021 season. He exceeded expectations at Duke by overseeing a 16-9 record in his two seasons there. Elko inherits an Aggies roster still loaded with talent from years of top-ten recruiting classes assembled by Fisher. Eighteen starters are back from last year’s team that outgained SEC opponents by +74 net Yards-Per-Game. The negative culture in College State during Fisher’s reign might have contributed to the Aggies losing all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings still placed Texas A&M as the 16th-best team in the country at the end of the season. Elko was aggressive in the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he brought in 14 new players including eight in the defensive backfield. Injuries at the quarterback position marred Fisher’s tenure as well with seven different quarterbacks having to play in the last two seasons due to injuries. Junior Conner Weigman was ranked third in the nation in Total QBR before his season-ending broken foot in Game Four last season. He is a former 5-star recruit with NFL potential. In his nine career games, Weigman has thrown for 1875 yards with 16 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. The biggest concern remains the offensive line which was an area that Fisher struggled to get right. Three starters return from that unit — and when considering the transfer players Elko brought in, there are 112 combined starts represented from the group. New offensive coordinator Collin Klein will have the element of surprise tonight implementing a new offensive scheme for this team after finding success the last two seasons as the offensive coordinator at Kansas State. Don’t be surprised if he deploys an aggressive run scheme leaning on a crowded running back room of blue-chip talent. For Notre Dame, excitement is sky-high in South Bend in what could be their deepest roster in three decades. Third-year head coach Marcus Freeman has done a nice job mixing old-school recruiting of high schoolers enamored with the Notre Dame brand with targeting areas of need in high-profile transfer players. But is his looking for the shiny object at quarterback thwarting the development of potentially better options under center? My biggest question regarding the Fighting Irish in the offseason last year was whether “the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season. After an 0-3 start in 2022, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense.” Hartman was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the year but inconsistent play and a bad interception in the loss at Clemson had him drawing criticism for much of the season. Such is life as the quarterback for the Golden Domers. But there was plenty of blame to cast. The wide receiver room continued to lack explosiveness and a reliable number-one option. And despite having two tackles drafted into the NFL, it was only Joe Alt who was reliable in pass protection for the Fighting Irish. Now Freeman has responded by tapping LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to run the offense in South Bend. This is Denbrock’s third tour of duty for the Irish after serving as offensive coordinator from 2002-2004 and then from 2010-2016. But bringing him back now certainly seems like Freeman’s desire to install the vertical passing attack that helped Jayden Daniels have so much success last year. Yet even after hitting the transfer portal with three more incoming wide receivers, the room probably does not have anyone approaching the talent of Mike Nabors or Brian Thomas. Freeman turned to the ACC again by inking Duke’s Riley Leonard to the program after he entered the portal. Leonard has a big arm and nice mobility, who put up some good numbers with the Blue Devils — but accuracy and durability are concerns. He was not as highly touted or recruited as redshirt sophomore Steve Angeli who played well in the Irish’s 40-8 win against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. A further move away from the power run game that worked so well in the second half of 2022 may not be playing into the talent on the roster. The Fighting Irish defense could be the foundation forming the identity of this team under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have nine starters back to build on a ground that ranked fifth in the nation by holding their opponents 276.4 Yards-Per-Game. I remain perplexed regarding how close this team is to making a deep run in the new College Football Playoffs. On the one hand, their average margin of victory in their ten wins was by +33 Points-Per-Game. They beat three opponents that finished in the SP+ top-40 by at least three touchdowns. Yet the Irish may simply have become Flat Track Bullies under Freeman with their three losses last year by an average margin of -8.0 PPG. This brings me to this question: what is the signature victory for Notre Dame in the two seasons under Freeman? A 48-20 victory last year against an 8-5 USC team? Their 34-14 win against Clemson the year before probably tops the list. Yet the Irish started that year 0-2 after an upset loss at home as a 20-point favorite against Marshall before later getting upset by Stanford as a 16-point favorite. Last year, a coaching blunder left only 10 Irish defenders on the field on the crucial fourth down play in which Ohio State scored their game-winning touchdown with just one second left in the game. The Fighting Irish would later get overmatched in a 33-20 loss at Louisville. And then in Clemson’s opportunity for revenge, Notre Dame spotted them an 18-point lead in the first half before their comeback fell short. Perhaps these are all just the growing pains of a program that is about to become mainstays in the 12-team playoff year-after-year. On the other hand, what if this is a program that simply hits a ceiling when facing top-15 opponents? If that is the case, then Freeman’s short-term decisions at quarterback and the looming change in focus in philosophy on offense could make them more vulnerable to taking a step or two in the wrong direction. That all said, this is a huge game for the Irish since their relatively easy schedule the rest of the way may put them on the College Football Playoff bubble if they have two losses at the end of the year (and a 10-3 record would probably leave them out — especially with later opponent Florida State already with one loss).

FINAL TAKE: These two are very familiar with each other. Denbrock had great success scheming against this Texas A&M defense with LSU last season — but he had the benefit of three first-round NFL draft picks in Daniels, Nabors, and Thomas. There may be no head coach better prepared to devise a game plan against Leonard than Elko after he was his head coach for the last two seasons. And, of course, Elko has familiarity with Notre Dame after serving as their defensive coordinator. Finally, the atmosphere at Kyle Field should be electric where the Aggies have won 11 home openers in a row while covering the point spread in 7 of those games. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (0-0) returns 13 starters from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Central Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl by a 30-17 score. Florida State (0-0) has ten starters back from their group that lost to Georgia in the Orange Bowl by a 63-3 score. This game is being played on a neutral field at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: My biggest question with Florida State in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 games in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players, including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point — and the reports suggested he was inconsistent in spring practice. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. This is a challenging trip to Europe — and the team will be without offensive coordinator Alex Atkins who is suspended for the first three games this season for recruiting violations. Now they face an improving Georgia Tech team that upset Wake Forest, Miami (FL), and Virginia on the road last season. Any concern that the Yellow Jackets jumped the gun on giving Brent Kay the permanent head coaching job after a small sample size in 2022 when he went 4-4 down the stretch taking over for the fired Geoff Collins was put to rest last season. For the first time in five seasons, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24.0 Points-Per-Game with sophomore quarterback Haynes King leading the way to a 31.1 PPG scoring average. The former four-star recruit from Texas A&M is poised for a breakout campaign in his junior season under second-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and co-coordinator and quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke. The dual-threat QB accounted for 35 total touchdowns — and he has seven starters back to join him. It is the other side of the ball that remains the work in progress. Georgia Tech ranks 120th in the nation by allowing 437.1 Yards-Per-Game. Five starters return — and Kay brought in nine transfers and hired Tyler Santucci as the new defensive coordinator after he oversaw a good Duke defense last year. The group needs more depth and playmakers — but improving on their run defense that ranked 128th in the FBS by allowing 221.3 YPG with opposing rushers generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Kay was able to retain several important players from the temptations of the transfer portal. He is building a culture focused on toughness and doing an admirable job bringing in talent despite the high academic standards in the Admissions Office.

FINAL TAKE: The weather forecasts in Dublin call for wind gusts of up to 20 miles per hour — and that element adds volatility to the mix to this Seminoles team that has national championship aspirations. I’m not sure Florida State is at the level from season-to-season — and the Yellow Jackets probably have the better quarterback in this one. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in all 4 of their games against ranked ACC opponents under Key’s leadership — and they pulled off the upset in all four contests. 10* CFB Florida State-Georgia Tech ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: The so-called “sharps” are on the 49ers for this game — but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about out half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. I think the sharps and the computer models are failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs have been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It’s chip time now — so the Chiefs will be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season.  This team is different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group has faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team has found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it’s chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They face a San Francisco team that has good underlying numbers — but what if they are being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia do not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes is a mismatch. I appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that is no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. But take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completes 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left Spagnuolo will be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson is likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.

FINAL TAKE: No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but Kansas City has the edge in both coaching and the defensive unit. The 49ers have the better skill position players — but then there is Mahomes versus Purdy. Even if Purdy is as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it’s another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (102) and the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs found themselves in a defensive struggle in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Ravens — and a similar game script appears likely in the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense only generated 319 yards despite being on the field for 37:30 minutes of that game. They generated only 4.49 Yards-Per-Play but were happy to control the time of possession by running 71 offensive plays including 32 rushing attempts. The Chiefs' lack of a vertical passing attack helped the Ravens contain big plays. Marques Valdes-Scantling was the deep threat in their previous game against Buffalo but he does not demand double teams.  They used rookie Rashee Rice on some deep throws against Baltimore — but they did not connect and he is more adept as a possession receiver. However, when in the past the lack of explosive plays would frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he now seems quite comfortable grinding out first downs while not forcing the action. They have scored 20 points or less ten times this season. It helps Mahomes that he now has confidence in the Kansas City defense which is the best unit in his tenure in the NFL. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 16.8 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed more than 21 points only twice all season. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business — and now he has two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan’s offense and quarterback Brock Purdy’s tendencies. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when given two weeks of rest and preparation. The 49ers have an explosive offense that generates 396.4 total YPG and 28.9 PPG — but Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. For San Francisco, there are signs that their offense is slowing down a bit. They had not scored more than 27 points in four straight games before the NFC Championship Game. They gained 413 total yards against the suspect Lions' defense — but 51 of those yards came from that lucky tipped ball from Purdy’s overthrown pass that somehow landed in the hands of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Take away that play — and Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the next series that set the Niners up for a short touchdown drive — and the 49ers only score 17 points from 361 total yards. But don’t sleep on this 49ers defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in eight of their last 11 games. San Francisco only gives up 316.2 YPG when playing away from home resulting in 16.1 PPG. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BONUS SUPER BOWL PROPS REPORT:

I used the prop bets at DraftKings as a guide. I know that not everyone will have accounts with that book so please deploy the logic behind each bet to the appropriate and available prop bet at the book you are using.

BEST BET: Brandon Aiyuk Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings).

Our Best Bet for Super Bowl props is Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yardage for the game finishing Under the Total (-115 at DraftKings). Aiyuk is likely to be the primary defensive assignment for Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is one of the best in the business. Aiyuk only has 100 receiving yards in his two playoff games this season — although he did have 68 receiving yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The more glaring number is that he was only targeted by Brock Purdy three times in each game — and that is not a great recipe to get 61 or more receiving yards. In his 18 games played this season, this Under wins nine times. Perhaps more importantly, this Under hits in six of Aiyuk’s nine games played away from Levi’s Stadium. In general, I am expecting a heavy run script from 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Chiefs' run defense is their bigger vulnerability and Shanahan has been living with the criticism of too quickly abandoning the run not only in the 2021 Super Bowl when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons but also in their earlier loss this season to Baltimore. Furthermore, while Shanahan needs big plays, he tends to find solutions from pass plays — but I think “now or never” aspect of the Super Bowl means more of his trick plays using gadget players like Kyle Jusszczyk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery (his favorite player). Additionally, I suspect that Shanahan will be very sensitive about putting Purdy in a position to succeed in this game — and that means safer play calls, especially early in the game. Aiyuk’s primary role in this game may be as a decoy and as the magnet that draws Sneed’s attention away from where Shanahan wants the ball to go.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings).

Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Mahomes to throw Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes nine times this season — including two of his three playoff games. Furthermore, Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes in four of his last five games as well as six of his last eight contests. The focus of the offense has shifted from explosive plays when they had Tyreek Hill to now their running game behind Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice remain threats in the passing game — but the Niners will focus on stopping them. The lack of a great third-receiving option will help us win this prop. Getting this prop at plus money (+130) presents great value.

BONUS LONG SHOT BETS:

(1) Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+7000 at DraftKings). This one is worth a lottery ticket flyer. The lack of a third Chiefs’ receiving option does open up space for players like Gray to step up — and head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up trick plays to get guys like him involved (as he did Kadarius Toney in last year’s Super Bowl). Kansas City is playing more 12 and 13 personnel sets with two or three tight ends on the field. Gray is the second tight end on the depth chart — and he has played 58.5% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. He has seen three or more targets in 55% of his games this season. He has two targets in the Red Zone in these playoffs. And most importantly, Mahomes trusts him — he has only one drop in his 41 targets this season.

(2) Isaiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player (+2500 at DraftKings). Pacheco has averaged 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last eight games. In his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests as well. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that surrendered 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 93 rushing yards to Detroit’s David Montgomery, and 45 rushing yards to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in their last two games. The Niners are surrendering 159.0 rushing YPG in the playoffs. I expect Pacheco to feature prominently in the Chiefs’ game plan. If Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes’ passing numbers are only modest, then Pacheco becomes a prime candidate to win MVP — especially if he scores a touchdown.

Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has given up at least 384 yards of offense in five straight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after giving up 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two or more games in a row at home. The Lions have averaged 27.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games away from home — and center Frank Ragnow will play in this game despite dealing with several injuries. San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel will also take the field in this game. He got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. The 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco generated 416.6 total Yards-Per-Game when playing at home resulting in 26.9 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wide receiver Deebo Samuel got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. The Niners have an 8-9 straight-up record in their last 17 games without Samuel — so his presence is critical. Head coach Kyle Shanahan removed him from the injury list on Friday — so I am comfortable endorsing San Francisco in this contest. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Shanahan is going to ride McCaffrey, particularly in this game with everything on the line and with two weeks between this contest and the Super Bowl. In his last four games, McCaffrey is generating 6.03 Yards-Per-Carry — and he is being used more in the passing game and averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Reception. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. When playing at home at Levi’s Stadium, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 Points-Per-Game with their defense limiting their opponents to 294.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 19.3 PPG. The addition of Chase Young has given the defense a second pass rusher to complement Nick Bosa on the other side of the defensive line. While Young does not have huge sack numbers, he has made an impact with 74 pressures on the quarterback since his arrival in November. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. Purdy now has a 4-1 straight-up record against quarterbacks drafted in the first round. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Lions have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 33 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after not allowing 100 or more yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in their last three games. Despite winning three games in a row, they got outgained in each of those contests — and they have an unsustainable -58.3 net YPG clip during that stretch despite all three of those games being played at home. Injuries on the offensive line are a significant concern since this was one of the team’s biggest strengths. Underrated left guard Jonah Jackson is out for this game which means undrafted journeyman Kayode Awosokika gets the start after the Lions picked up off waivers after Philadelphia cut him in the preseason. Center Frank Ragnow will play despite several injuries slowing him down — but he is far from 100% and did not have the same push-off last week after injuring his ankle and knee against the Buccaneers. Now the Lions go back on the road for the first time in 2024 where they got outscored in the regular season. Jared Goff was much more effective when playing at Ford Field where he posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating while completing 70.1% of his passes and averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt — but on the road, his QBR drops to 107.9 while completing 64.8% of his passes and averaging just 7.1 YPA. Detroit is playing with house money after winning playoff games for the first time since 1991 — but this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 playoff games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have a 5-3 straight-up win against teams who made the playoffs — but they have a net point differential of 0.0 by scoring and allowing 22 PPG. The 49ers have a 6-3 straight-up record against playoff teams — but they have an averaging winning margin of +9.5 PPG by scoring 28 PPG and allowing just 18.5 PPG in those contests. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City comes into this game with momentum after upsetting the Bills on the road. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 292.5 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 17.1 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 22 of their 31 road games in the Reid as an underdog — and they covered all four of their road games as an underdog in the last three seasons. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by 21 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Ravens outrushed the Texans last week by +191 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after outrushing their last opponent by +100 or more yards. Baltimore earned the right to host this game with the best record in the AFC — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half. The defending Super Bowl champions have experimented for much of the year with their revamped wide receiver corps — and this group has been plagued by drops since the opening week of the season since playing Detroit on that opening Thursday Night game. But head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have settled on their group. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat third option. Reid has made an addition by subtraction by simply removing the human drop machine that has been Kadarius Toney from the mix all together — he is banished to the injured list. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last five games excluding the Week 17 game against Las Vegas where starters were rested, he has averaged 20.4 touches per game and 106.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 20 targets and 19 receptions in his last four contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while Kansas City has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Mahomes has only been an underdog 11 times as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback — and he has led his team to 34.6 PPG in those contests with the final score finishing Over the Total 8 times by an average of +13.9 points. Kansas City has played 17 of their last 26 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Baltimore earned the right to host this game by posting the best record in the AFC — and they have generated 387.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home resulting in 32.1 PPG. Tight end Mark Andrews will play in this game after being activated from the injured list. Lamar Jackson is enjoying a Most Valuable Player season — in his last four games against teams who reached the plays this year, he has 12 touchdown passes to just one interception with another 245 rushing yards on 35 carries including two more touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these defenses are great — but both can be run on. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the league by allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City ranks 25th in the NFL by allowing 4.5 YPC. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or more points nine times — and the Ravens have allowed 19 or more points eight times. If both teams reach those point thresholds, the game script should ensure we reach our Over. Kansas City has played 13 of their 16 games in the Reid era Over the Total when they are an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to seven points. Finally, there is a 70% chance of rain for this game — and that helps both offenses since it slows down pass rushers in pursuit and helps mobile quarterbacks. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: I appreciate what this Bills team has done in the second half of the season — and after enduring a torturous campaign last year where they were dealt emotional challenge after emotional challenge while still trying to get over psychic trauma of losing in the final nine seconds to this Chiefs team in the playoffs — this team has a better perspective that a season is a marathon rather than a sprint. If both teams were at full health and playing on equal rest, I might have invested in Buffalo in this showdown. But I do not like this situation for the Bills — especially when now laying up to a field goal. The Chiefs have two extra days of rest for this contest after completing their win against the Dolphins last Saturday afternoon as opposed to the Bills finishing their game with the Steelers two days later given the postponement from the Sunday kickoff due to weather. Then there is the Buffalo injury list with various maladies beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo. The Bills come on a six-game winning streak — but too often they perform better after facing recent adversity. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they have covered the spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. No one embodies this maddening inconsistency than Josh Allen who is responsible for 41 turnovers in the last two seasons including 22 this year. The Chiefs offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But what should not be underestimated about this Kansas City team is the defense under Steve Spagnuolo who has won four Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator for the New York Giants and now the Chiefs. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 straight Unders after not allowing more than nine points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games coming off a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in their last two games. Led by Mahomes, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs will also be looking to avenge two straight losses to the Bills since their epic 42-36 victory in the 2022 playoffs — they last played on December 10th last month with Buffalo pulling off a 20-17 upset victory as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven or more points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo raced out to a 21-7 halftime lead against the Steelers last week — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding a halftime lead of 14 or more points in their last contest. The Bills have also played 30 of their last 43 home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 14 and 17 points — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Injuries are beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo — but their offense is clicking. Running back James Cook has 139 touches in his last seven games while averaging 5 yards per touch. Quarterback Josh Allen has added 16 touchdowns with his legs — and his willingness to take off and run adds an extra dimension to the explosiveness of their offense as evidenced by his 52-yard touchdown run last week. The Bills are generating 372.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 29.7 Points-Per-Game at home. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Chiefs' offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But the defense will not be at full strength with nose tackle Derrick Nnadi out with a tricep injury and linebacker William Gay questionable with a neck issue. Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-8) has won two games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 32-9 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Monday. Detroit (13-5) has won straight games as well as four of their last five games after their 24-23 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions earned their first playoff victory since 1991 with their triumph last week. How did they respond? Cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson called out Tampa Bay Baker Mayfield by suggesting how good the Buccaneers wide receivers could be if they had a better quarterback. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took two Zoom interviews on Friday for potential head coaching jobs. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn took an interview as well. These are the actions of a losing franchise. Head coach Dan Campbell can declare he has changed the culture — but talk is cheap. He still lost his cool a few weeks ago in the game at Dallas by recklessly doubling down by going for the win even though it was fourth and seven (then fourth and four after a Cowboys penalty) after suffering the cosmic injustice of a bad call from the referees after the Lions too clever for its own good tackle-eligible receiver play. You know what teams that have won a playoff game since the final years of the George Herbert Walker Bush administration all have in common: a long list of bad officiating calls that went against them. Get over it. Well, Detroit did — they defeated Matthew Stafford last week in the Prodigal Son’s return to the Motor City for the first time since the blockbuster trade that sent him to Los Angeles. It is as if the Lions won their Super Bowl last Sunday — so cue the job interviews and the trash talk. And I see this as a gigantic letdown spot — especially at this number of laying close to a touchdown. As it is, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win three points or less. They have also fueled to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games at home after no-cover win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Moving forward, Gardner-Johnson might want to worry about his own play rather than opposing quarterbacks — the Lions have allowed at least 323 passing yards in four straight games while surrendering 353 passing Yards-Per-Game during that stretch. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after giving up at least 275 passing yards in three or more games in a row. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the postseason. Now here comes a gritty Tampa Bay team that comes in under the radar. With cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamal Dean healthy again, the Buccaneers may have the best defense in the league. They have held their last three opponents to just 261.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 10.7 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in Red Zone Defense and tied for fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. On the other side of the ball, second-year running back Rachaad White has emerged by rushing for at least 75 yards in five of his last seven games. With wide receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs still have star power that are holdovers from their Super Bowl championship team three years ago. And then Mayfield is at his best when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder rather than with five national television commercial spots. In his last seven games, Mayfield has 16 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay will have revenge on their minds as well after losing at home to the Lions by a 20-6 score on October 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Detroit NBC-TV Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th. Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Let’s talk weather first — there is a 75% chance of rain with winds gusting up to 16 miles per hour. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled in the rain earlier in the season at Cleveland when he completed only 12 of 27 passes for 125 yards with only one touchdown pass and an interception in the Niners’ 19-17 loss to the Browns. There are plenty of caveats from that situation. Cleveland’s defense was playing as good as any team in the league at that point of the season — especially at home. Both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got injured and left that game — and San Francisco’s offense is much different without either one of those players. And Purdy still orchestrated a late drive to put his team in position to win the game but rookie kicker Jake Moody missed the potential game-winning kick as time expired. Weather is tricky to assess — while the kicking game could be impacted by the wind and rain, the pass rush slows down in wet conditions. The books have not adjusted the point spread nor the Total given these weather updates — so I am not persuaded to change my side assessment. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset loss to an NFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning vie or six of their last seven games. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game. They are outscoring their guests by +12.2 Points-Per-Game when playing at home — and they are outgaining them by +134.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Green Bay pulled off the shocker last week in Dallas despite surrendering 510 yards and getting outgained by -95 net yards. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after giving up 500 or more yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning four of their last five games. Now Green Bay stays on the road on a short week and travels west to play the 49ers. The Packers are getting outgained on the road by -12.0 net YPG. Green Bay is very vulnerable on defense. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also suspect— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week. They allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.7% of their passes against them — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. Head coach Matt LaFleur was aggressive with his play-calling last week against the Cowboys — and his offense has generated 7.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games. But Green Bay has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 6.0 or more YPP under LaFleur.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers' offense has blossomed in the second half of the season with the light having turned on for Jordan Love and his understanding of head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Love was forcing the ball earlier in the season — but perhaps the midseason injury to wide receiver Christian Watson was a blessing in disguise since it helped coax him to rely on simply feeding the ball to the open receiver. With rookies Jaylen Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft along with second-year pros Romeo Doubs and Watson, the Packers have one of the best groups of wide receivers and tight ends in the league. Love has thrown 21 touchdown passes with only one interception in his last nine games. The play-action passing attack has been devastating — Green Bay leads the NFL in total offense and third down offense in the last month. They have scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while generating 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game with the offense gaining at least 415 yards in each contest. Credit goes to LaFleur who finally is seeing the true vision of his offense unleashed after having to make compromise after compromise previously with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after pulling off an upset win. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs after averaging at least 375 YPG in their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road against fellow NFC rivals. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense that has some weaknesses. The Niners' pass defense is not nearly as good since the season-ending injury to safety Talanga Hufanga in mid-November. San Francisco ranks 21st in the NFL by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and they are just middle of the pack ranking 13th in the league by giving up 214.2 passing YPG. In a four-game stretch from December 3rd through December 25th, the 49ers allowed 246 passing YPG with opponents exposing their pass defense. Teams can also run on the Niners — they rank 14th in the league by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry. But the Packers are vulnerable on defense as well. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also vulnerable— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week leading Dallas to a whopping 510 total yards in a losing effort. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game on offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 5 of their 8 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5-9.5 points. The Packers generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. And in Green Bay’s last 37 road games against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes, they have played 25 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE:  I don’t think these conditions warrant getting off the Over (nor taking the Under) — and the oddsmakers have not adjusted the line so I remain comfortable with the Over. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 17-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on January 6th. Houston (11-7) has won three games in a row after their 45-14 upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Houston last week — but their triumph last week likely sets them up for a big emotional letdown now. As it is, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit upset win. The final score is deceiving since Houston only outgained the Browns by +32 net yards. Joe Flacco threw two pick-sixes in the second half to account for 14 of the Texans' points in the end. Houston only managed 14 first downs and generated only 356 yards of offense in the win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has been a much better team at home where they have a 7-3 record — but they are just 4-4 on the road where they are getting outscored by -1.8 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -16.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is a much better quarterback at this point of the season than he was in Week One when he played on the road against the Ravens in a 25-9 loss. But Stroud has not nearly been as effective when playing on the road this season. Stroud posted a 108.3 Quarterback Rating in his ten games at home where he completed 65.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes while averaging 310.8 passing YPG on 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. But in his eight games on the road, his QBR drops to 91.5 as he completes only 62.0% of his passes with only six touchdown passes while averaging 231.7 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set from 42.5-45. Baltimore earned the luxury to rest their starters two weeks ago with the number seed in the AFC locked up — so they are rested and ready for this matchup. As it is, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Texans have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season — they rank last in the league by allowing seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And while their run defense has improved, they did surrender 227 rushing yards to the Colts two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of play-action pass plays from Lamar Jackson as well since Houston ranks 30th in the league action play-action pass plays. Baltimore outscores their opponents by +14.1 PPG and outgains them by +80.0 YPG when playing at home. They generate 391.3 YPG resulting in 31.9 PPG at home. They also hold their guests to just 311.3 total YPG resulting in 17.8 PPG.  The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: There may not be a defensive coordinator in the NFL that is more familiar with Stroud than Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald who probably scouted him daily for an entire year when Stroud was a junior at Ohio State and Macdonald was the Michigan defensive coordinator looking to break their long-losing streak to the Buckeyes three years ago. Macdonald was able to update his book on Stroud for their opening game this season — and he will be well aware of his improvements with the deep ball now. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding opposing QBs to just a 74 Passer Rating — and they only allow 192 passing YPG. The Texans average 7.3 YPA in the passing game — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.  Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles have devolved into a big mess with chaos running through the organization. After beginning the season with Super Bowl aspirations, the team has collapsed — and the finger-pointing is rampant. The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. There is a school of thought that the postseason could refocus this team — but it is also possible that the team fails to provide maximum effort in this lost season with coaching changes seeming on the table. Resiliency has not been a characteristic of this team recently. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss against an NFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or more games in a row. And while they got outgained by -116 net yards by the Giants, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants. The Eagles stay on the road where they are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. While the Buccaneers' defense does not get talked about enough, they may have the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG when playing at home — and they have held their last three opponents to just 271.3 total YPG resulting in 11.7 PPG. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers lost at home to the Eagles by a 25-11 score as a 5-point underdog back on September 25th when both of these teams were playing under much different circumstances. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss of 14 or more points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. With running back D’Andre Swift returning to action tonight after he was out with an injury — look for the Eagles to lean heavily on him and their rushing attack to keep their defense off the field. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points to an NFC East rival. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. Philadelphia has played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two or more games in a row including four of those last five circumstances. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. On the road, the Philly defense has played better as they have held their home hosts to 329.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 21.4 Points-Per-Game. But the Eagles are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Tampa Bay has played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are generating 317.1 total YPG resulting in 17.6 PPG — but they are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Eagles have played 5 straight Unders in January. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the xBuffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win on the road against an AFC North rival. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game while leading the offense to 473 total yards — and Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG which has helped them post a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +98.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers will be without their best defensive player T.J. Watt given his MCL knee injury. They lost six of their seven games when he was out with an injury last season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Buffalo CBS-TV Special with the Buffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after a win against an AFC North rival. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games after a point spread win, Pittsburgh has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game — and Buffalo has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 300 or more passing yards. And while they averaged 6.39 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10  home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit comes into this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Lions have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. This Lions team has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace. Detroit will play before a rabid crowd tonight that has not hosted a playoff game in the downtown area since the Bobby Layne era (their last playoff game took place at the Silverdome about an hour north in Pontiac). Detroit is generating 408.8 total YPG at home resulting in 30.5 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +8.9 PPG. The Lions have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win by three points or less against an NFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games following a win on the road against a divisional foe. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they generated 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They have also played 6 straight Overs at home after a double-digit victory. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win at home. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games. Their offense has generated 432 and 470 yards in their last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Packers have only given up 19 combined points in their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total. And while Dallas averages only 0.9 turnovers per game, Green Bay has played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against opponents who do not average more than one turnover per game. Unfortunately for Green Bay, their secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 8* NFL Green Bay-Dallas Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they outgained them by +260 net yards while generating 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after beating a fellow NFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional rival. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning two of their last three games. They limited Washington to just 50 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they have been dominant this season with an 8-0 record along with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The smartest thing head coach Mike McCarthy did in the offseason was to clean up the Cowboys’ pre-snap routine with Dak Prescott’s verbal cue of “here we go” indication the snap is coming soon. The process seems to have given the offense both a comfortable rhythm and an identity — and the results speak for themselves as they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense also shines a home where they are holding their opponents to just 305.8 YPG and 15.9 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home including six of their eight home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games against fellow NFC opponents. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at Lambeau Field in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning at home in their last game. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.  The Green Bay defense has held their last two opponents to 192 and 211 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. The secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month. Running back A.J. Dillon is also doubtful with a thumb and neck leaving the running back duties to Aaron Jones. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +10.4 net YPG this season — and they got outgained by -2.7 net YPG when playing on the road. They have been fortunate to win five of their last six games decided by one-scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +11.4 net PPG while generating 29.9 PPG. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against opponents who are scoring 29 or more PPG. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday. Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins had an opportunity to claim the second seed and face the Bills once again in South Beach this week — but their loss last Sunday night puts them very much behind the eight ball in the Wild Card round. It’s bad enough for them that they played the late game on Sunday night and now play on the road on a short week against the Chiefs. And the weather conditions in Kansas City are perhaps their worst nightmare. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. Miami is also a M*A*S*H unit right now with a bevy of injuries headlined by Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard out on defense — and they had to sign veterans off the street this week to fill out their defensive end depth chart (and they are expected to play tonight). Head coach Mike McDaniel is optimistic wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. Now it is dangerous to discount a team in wounded animal mode like the Dolphins are — but this sentiment helped motivate my backing them last Sunday night at home in that crucial game against Buffalo. Perhaps they win (or at least cover the point spread as the home underdog) if not for the Bills’ 96-yard punt return for a touchdown in the second half that changed the momentum of that game. But the fact remains that the Dolphins did not score in the second half while getting outgained by -198 net yards with the offense only generating 275 total yards. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 road games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last contest. The Dolphins' defense is faltering lately as they have given up 434.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. Kansas City has experience playing in this cold weather — especially in the postseason. Patrick Mahomes commented that the practices in these conditions are worse because they do not have the benefit of heaters on the sidelines. Mahomes also throws a crisper ball than Tagovailoa bites through the wind — so the Chiefs should have a net edge in the passing game. Playing at Arrowhead Stadium already gives Kansas City a big advantage as it is — they are outscoring their guests by +6.2 net PPG and outgaining them by +106 net YPG due to their outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by three points or less. And while they have not allowed more than 20 points in five straight games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver  — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) enters the postseason coming off their 23-19 victory at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (11-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has been playing good football down the stretch with seven victories in their last ten games — and they won a de-facto playoff game on the road last week in their victory against the Colts. Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to impress for this team as he completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes — and he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The rookie does not make many mistakes with only five interceptions this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his last 144 throws. Winning the AFC South title earned them the right to host a playoff game at home at NRG Stadium where they had a 6-3 record this season. They outscored their guests by +4.3 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +36.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Houston has underrated defense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans — they held their last three opponents to just 321.7 YPG resulting in 19.3 PPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland rested key starters last week after having already clinched an AFC wildcard spot. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Browns surrendered 183 rushing yards to the Bengals last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a surprise for this team as the fifth starting quarterback they have needed this season. But injuries on both sides of the ball may be taking a toll. Cleveland was a much better team when playing at home this season where they finished 8-1 while holding their opponents to 13.9 PPG. But they were just 3-5 in their eight games on the road while getting outscored by -5.2 net PPG due to their defense giving up 29.6 PPG. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to seven points.  Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Browns’ 36-22 victory in Houston as a 3-point road favorite back on December 24th. Stroud did not play in that game as he was still in concussion protocol — and Flacco outplayed Davis Mills and Case Keenum in what was his fourth start for Cleveland at the time. Flacco did throw two interceptions in that game — and his eight interceptions in his five starts could be a canary in the coal mine in this rematch. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 28 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss where they gave up 35 or more points. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total between the Washington Huskies (287) and the Michigan Wolverines (288) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies generated 532 yards of offense last week against a Longhorns team that allowed only 17.5 Points-Per-Game and 322.5 total Yards-Per-Game at the time. But the Washington defense gave up 490 yards against Texas and almost blew the game in some anxious late moments. Head coach Kalen DeBoer will play tonight’s game aggressively — and he will ride on the talent of his quarterback Michael Penix. The Huskies survived another shootout in their 34-31 victory against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. Washington generated 7.6 Yards-Per-Play against the Longhorns — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Over the Total this season after averaging 6.75 or more YPP in their last game. One of the reasons why the Huskies offense is so successful is that they do not turn the ball over — they have not committed more than one turnover in six straight games. Washington has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not committing more than one turnover in five or more games in a row. Michigan has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 19 of their last 25 road games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. Their victory against Alabama last week came on the heels of their 26-0 victory against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game as a 22-point favorite — and the Wolverines have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field as the favorite — and Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 20* CFB Washington-Michigan ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total between the Washington Huskies (287) and the Michigan Wolverines (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan survived their sloppiest game of the season — and probably the worst special teams performance in the Jim Harbaugh era — to rally and beat the Crimson Tide. The Wolverines muffed a punt in the first quarter that led to Alabama scoring a touchdown. They flubbed an extra point and then missed a field goal to spot Alabama another four points. And then Michigan almost suffered their most embarrassing loss in the history of their athletic program — putting Chris Webber’s time out to rest — when punt returner Jake Thaw muffed that punt with under two minutes to go which almost handed the Crimson Tide the winning score. But Thaw salvaged the moment with a great play by recovering the ball and avoiding the safety to keep his team alive for overtime. The surprising aspect to those events is that the Wolverines have been outstanding with their special teams this season — they ranked fourth in the nation in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for special teams before that game and still rank seventh afterward . I suspect that was a nightmare outlier that will not be repeated. Moving to their matchup with the Huskies, this Michigan program has been built to compete against an explosive pass-first offense like what Washington has since it closely resembles Ohio State under head coach Ryan Day — and the Wolverines have dominated the Buckeyes for three straight seasons. While the Ohio State team this season did not have a quarterback as nearly as accurate and effective as the Huskies’ Michael Penix, the Wolverines successfully dealt with the Buckeyes’ CJ Stroud who was throwing to at least two future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. Michigan has two high draft picks cornerback Will Johnson and slot corner Mike Sainristil to address Washington’s outstanding trio of wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been great in deploying sophisticated blitz schemes coming from all angles like the Wolverines’ previous defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is now executing with the Baltimore Ravens. After sacking Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times last week, they have 16 sacks in their last four games. The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the nation — but redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford is a weak link at center. Senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was considered Michigan’s best defensive lineman before the season started but he may have been overtaken by sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham. If — and when — the Wolverines establish pressure in the middle, then Penix may experience more disruption than he has all season, especially since the inside pass rush is most lethal to quarterbacks. If these contests between elite teams are decided by who wins the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, Michigan has the edge after proving themselves against Ohio State and now Alabama. Schematically, the Wolverines threw a wrinkle at the Crimson Tide by deploying three wide receivers and then relying heavily on pre-snap motion to divorce the Alabama defenders from their coaches' instructions. Nick Saban lamented afterward that Michigan’s reliance on the traditional huddle actually hurt his coaching since it delayed the deployment of their scheme and afforded him not enough time to communicate adjustments to his defensive players on the fly. Washington’s defense is not at that level — but the Wolverines returning to their base two tight-end formation will allow them to play heavy while being comfortable using tempo and going to a passing attack since both their tight ends, Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner, will get drafted into the NFL because of their pass-catching skills. Michigan’s bread-and-butter is inside zone rushing plays — and the Huskies went into the playoff ranking 132nd in Opponent Offensive Line Years and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate. Running back Blake Corum (and Donovan Edwards, little used versus Alabama only because of the game script and the 11 personnel wrinkle) is poised for a big game. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. One of the underrated aspects of this Michigan team is their lack of mistakes (making the special teams blunders on Monday such an aberration). They have only committed eight turnovers all season after the one blunder with the punt return against Alabama (with their only multi-turnover game occurring in September against Bowling Green) — and they have not committed a turnover in nine of their games this season. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Furthermore, Michigan ranks second in the nation by committing only 40 penalties all season and averaging just 26.2 penalty Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who do not commit more than 42 penalty YPG. And while the Wolverines led the nation by allowing only 243.1 YPG, they held their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who do not allow more than 4.5 YPP. I appreciate — and I have spent a few days considering — that Penix is similar to Joe Burrow whose transcendent talents can elevate everyone around him. On the other hand, the power of the Regression Gods is usually more powerful in the end — so I worry about the Huskies perfect 8-0 record in one-possession games being a bubble that is about to burst. While I think the Huskies' defense is underrated, one cannot hide around the fact that they allow 407.4 YPG — and they have given up 414.0 YPG in their last three games. The margin for error is so small for Penix — and Michigan has five defensive touchdowns and relied on their special teams to turn games in their favor (even after Monday’s debacle). Washington surrendered 498 yards against the Longhorns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last game. They almost gave the game away to Texas in those final few minutes which questions their championship mettle. While they will come into the game hopeful and confident, they lack experience at this level — and that makes a difference against a Wolverines that made winning this game their goal after losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. And then there is the injury to running back Dillon Johnson who could not stand on his injured foot/leg at the end of the game on Monday. He is listed as probable in the National Championship, but if he is not close to 100 or re-injures this lingering ongoing for him late in the season, then the Huskies will be left one-dimensional since his 222 carries overwhelms his backup, freshman Tybo Rogers’ 43 carries.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field when favored. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing vUnder the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by six points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Buffalo has played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where their 24.3 Points-Per-Game scoring average is -2.3 PPG below their season average. The Bills have played 12 of their last 16 games — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 35 or more points in their last contest. And while they gave up 491 yards of offense last week against the Ravens, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Miami offense is undermanned tonight with both running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle not expecting to play. But the Dolphins' defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins lost on the road to the Bills by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a loss by 14 or more points to their opponent. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The decks seem stacked against Miami tonight. They are undermanned with several significant injuries. The defense is without cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb. The offense will miss wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. The team has earned the reputation of folding against good teams — they have three losses by 14 or more points and they have just one victory in five games against teams that entered the week in playoff position. The Bills mafia play to make their presence felt in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. And quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has lost five of his six starts against Josh Allen. But we bet numbers — not teams — and I like the Dolphins as a home underdog in this position as a cornered animal that everyone seems to be doubting. Miami is in the playoffs — but a victory clinches the AFC East title which has them host the Bills again next week which is a much better alternative rather than traveling to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes in cold weather. The Dolphins still have Tyreek Hill. And they still have running back De’Von Achane who generated 137 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches last week with Mostert out. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they endured a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. The Dolphins have a 7-1 record at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 net Points-Per-Game. Their defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in six of their eight home games this season. Furthermore, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home with the Total in the 45.5-49 point range. Buffalo has lifted themselves off the mat after a midseason stretch where they lost five of eight games to clinch their spot in the postseason. But consistency remains an issue for this group. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Bills go back on the road where they have not been nearly as good this season with a 3-5 record away from home. They are allowing 18.6 PPG and 309.2 YPG this season — but those numbers by +3.8 PPG and +34.7 YPG when they are on the road. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games in January. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have something to prove tonight since one of their three bad losses this season was in Buffalo when the Bills destroyed them by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st. Miami demonstrated they could hang with Buffalo last season as all three of their games including in the playoffs were decided by three points or less. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 14 or more points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 37-17 victory against Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-8) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven games with their 33-10 victory at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears get to play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Packers team that ensures their spot in the playoffs with a victory. Detroit was in this position last year — and they spoiled Green Bay’s playoff aspirations on Sunday Night Football in what was Aaron Rodgers' last game with the franchise. Chicago is playing good football for head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears outgained the Falcons by +125 net yards by holding them to just 307 yards. Chicago’s improvement has started on the defensive side of the field. Since Week 12, they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 14.6 Points-Per-Game — and they are tied for first in the league with 14 takeaways during that span. Acquiring Montez Sweat from Washington midseason was the beginning of the transformation for what is now a very physical defense. After allowing 24 PPG pre-trade, the Bears have given up 18 PPG since that trade. Chicago has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bears' rushing attack has fueled their offense — they have generated 177 rushing YPG in their last three games with their rushers averaging 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago has outrushed each of those opponents by at least +59 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing three straight opponents by +50 or more yards. Furthermore, the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Green Bay had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their 23-point win against the Vikings — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Packers rushed for 177 yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. Green Bay's rushing attack will be without running back A.J. Dillon who had seven carries last week — so their ground game is not at full strength. Additionally, the Packers held the Vikings to only a field goal in the first half of that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their previous contest. Green Bay’s defense is a liability — they have surrendered 352.3 YPG in their last three games resulting in 24.7 PPG. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 65.6% of their passes in the last three games resulting in 265 passing YPG and 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has the pressure on this afternoon — Chicago is in the cat bird’s seat with this opportunity to screw their rival while playing consequence-free since they are already out of the playoff race. Furthermore, the Bears have something to prove after suffering a humiliating 38-20 upset loss at home to the Packers as a 1-point favorite back in Week One on September 10th. The Bears have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to exact some in-season revenge. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game and they have not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in four straight contests. The Texans have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in four games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 or more points in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Colts stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. They have also played 26 of their last 39 home games Under the Total against opponents who are not giving up more than 90 rushing Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on their mind. The Texans have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Houston went into halftime last week with a 20-3 halftime lead — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Stroud was sold in his return from missing time after suffering a concussion — he completed 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He has 21 touchdown passes this season with only five interceptions. Like most quarterbacks, his numbers decline when facing a pass rush — but the Colts do not thrive in this area. Indianapolis ranks 21st in  Pressure Rate according to the Pro Football Reference metrics — and they fall to 24th in pressure rate according to DVOA. Stroud is completing 68.3% of his passes when in a clean pocket with a 9.3 Yards-Per-Attempt rate, 19 touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 111.3. Additionally, left tackle Laremy Tunsil was back in practice later this week after dealing with an injury — so he is expected to play. The Texans are 11th in the NFL with the lowest Pressure Rate on the QB Allowed and in the top ten in Pass Blocking according to Pro Football Focus. Stroud also leads the NFL with a 122.8 Passer Rating when trailing or when the score is tied — so he should outduel the Colts’ Gardner Minshew. While the veteran backup quarterback ranks 11th in the NFL with an interception rate of 1.9%, the deeper analytics suggest he has been fortunate to not throw more picks. He is committing turnover-worthy plays in 4.0% of his pass attempts which is the fourth-highest mark for quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. Only Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, and Josh Dobbs have a higher turnover-worthy play percentage — and that is not good company with a playoff spot on the line. First-year head coach Shane Steichen has done a great job with this team — especially after rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending injury early on. But Indianapolis is still getting outscored by -0.9 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -17.3 net YPG. The Texans, on the other hand, are outscoring their opponents by +1.2 PPG and outgaining them by +15.7 net YPG. The Colts get this game at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when an underdog of up to three points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The Texans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC South rivals. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 against division foes. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (468) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (467). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-3) has won five straight games and nine of their last 10 contests with their 56-19 victory against Miami as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (9-7) has won two straight games after their 30-23 upset victory at Seattle as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs — so head coach John Harbaugh has the luxury of resting several of his key starters. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, wide receivers            Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and safety Kyle Hamilton are not expected to play — and players like left tackle Ronnie Stanley may not get much playing time when push comes to shove. But roster limits prevent head coaches from benching all their starters in situations like this. Baltimore prides themselves on their roster depth — and they have demonstrated during their 24-game winning streak in the preseason that they do not compromise on their commitment to winning games. So while their best players will not play in this one — don’t underestimate how much they would like to ruin their arch-rival's opportunity to make the playoffs. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after scoring 40 or more points. Tyler Huntley is a capable backup quarterback who has a career 65.6% completion percentage. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread 6 straight games at home as an underdog. Furthermore, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Pittsburgh will have the burden of expectations since they must win this game — and then get help from some other results — to have a chance to earn a wild card spot in the AFC playoff race. The Steelers have pulled off two straight upset victories to create this opportunity after their 34-11 upset win at home against Cincinnati two weeks ago. But Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Pittsburgh has scored 64 combined points in their last two games — but this remains an offense that had not scored more than 16 points in their previous three games on the road. Mason Rudolph has provided a spark for the offense — but he has not been nearly as effective on the road in his career than he has at home, despite his good performance against the Seahawks last week. Rudolph completes 65.6% of his passes at home with 12 touchdown passes and only four interceptions in his career — but on the road, he is completing only 58.7% of his passes with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions.   

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens not only want to screw their arch-rival's playoff chances — but they will also want to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 5-point road favorite on October 8th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the opportunity to exact revenge — and the underdog is 23-5-2 ATS in the last 30 meetings between these AFC North rivals. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Baltimore ABC-TY/ESPN Special with the Baltimore Ravens (468) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (467). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281) and in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Texas is riding high after their triumph in the Big 12 Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after beating two or more conference rivals in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning five or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Quarterback Quinn Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has failed to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 350 or more yards in their last contest. Longhorns’ safety Derek Williams, Jr. will miss the first half of this game after getting suspended during the Big 12 Championship Game for targeting — and that will leave a suspect Texas secondary even more vulnerable. The Longhorns rank 86th in the nation in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. The Huskies generate 470.4 total Yards-Per-Game with 344 of those yards coming in the air. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against opponents generating 450 or more YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row against Pac-12 opponents. And while the Huskies have not turned the ball over more than once in five straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not turning the ball over more than once in four or more games in a row. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies will have the better quarterback on the field in Michael Penix, Jr. who outdueled Bo Nix twice in their two showdowns with Oregon. The Huskies rank 6th in Passing Success Rate — and they rank 7th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate to keep defenses honest. Running back Dillon Johnson averages more than 3.0 Yards after contact. The Washington offensive line won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the country — and this was a unit that protected Penix for just five pressures in his 55 dropbacks in the Alamo Bowl last season against Texas which the Huskies won by a 27-20 score. Washington leads the nation with a pressure-to-sack ratio of only 3.2%. Penix will have plenty of time to pick apart this vulnerable Longhorns pass defense. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Texas-Washington ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282) in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits expect this contest to be a high-scoring game — but there are clues from when these teams played in the Alamo Bowl that suggest this will be lower-scoring than expected. Despite these two teams each gaining at least 420 yards and combining for 865 total yards of offense, only 47 combined points were scored in Washington’s 27-20 victory. Texas could not run the ball against the Huskies’ defensive front as they only gained 51 yards on 18 carries as the offense became one-dimensional. The Longhorns were committed to limiting the explosiveness of the Washington passing attack so they played a quarters scheme in their secondary which stymied quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. to just one completion of 20 or more air yards. The Huskies moved the ball methodically with Penix completing all 11 of his screen passes to wide receivers and the ground game gobbling up 158 yards on 28 carries. Washington controlled time of possession by having the ball for 35:46 minutes of that game to keep Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers off the field. The Huskies deployed a similar strategy against the Ducks last month as their offense was on the field for 37:08 minutes of that game — and that helped them limit the explosive Oregon offense to just 17 first downs and only 363 total yards. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival by seven points or less. And while their win against Oregon was preceded by a narrow 24-21 victory against Washington State in the Apple Cup, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals by seven points or less. Additionally, Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road on field turf. And while the Longhorns score 36.2 PPG, the Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 34 or more PPG. Washington generates 470.4 total YPG — but Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average 450 or more YPG. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for 325 or more yards in their last contest. The Longhorns have scored 106 combined points in their last two games while gaining 662 and 528 yards in those contests — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards of offense in two games in a row. Despite these dynamic offensive numbers, there are some concerns underneath the hood. Texas ranks 121st in the country in Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they are only 72nd in the country in Finishing Drives. Long possessions that end in field goals ruin Overs when the Total is set in the 60s or higher. Ewers only averages 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which is the lowest of the four quarterbacks playing in the semifinals — and his Total QBR ranking of 15th in the nation is also the lowest of the final four QBs. The Longhorns rank 89th in the nation in Explosiveness in the passing game. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Texas boasts an elite run defense led by their two anchors on the defensive line, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. They only allow 80.8 rushing YPG so the Huskies may struggle to match their rushing numbers from the Alamo Bowl last year. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a bye week.  

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams play at a blindingly fast pace. Red Zone stops, limited explosiveness, and both teams working the Time of Possession battle is a great recipe for a lower-than-expected combined score. Texas has played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total when favored — and Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) and the Michigan Wolverines (280) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after beating an SEC rival in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row. Quarterback Jalen Milroe improved significantly after being reinserted into the starting lineup and first-year offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his schemes to his skill set. Milroe profiles similarly Jalen Hurts as a mobile quarterback with a huge frame. He ran for 747 non-sack yards this season. He also has a big arm with 15 completions of 40 or more yards. The Crimson Tide ranked 6th in the nation in Explosiveness in the Passing game. Alabama generated 444.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 40.0 Points-Per-Game. Michigan has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win against a Big Ten rival — and they have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total on the road after a bye week. Their passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Michigan scored 37.8 Points-Per-Game in their six games played away from the Big House.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolverines have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on a neutral field with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* CFB Alabama-Michigan ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) and the Michigan Wolverines (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): There have been plenty of casual dismissals of this Michigan team despite their being ranked at the top of most analytics-based power rankings. Anonymous Big Ten coaches were quoted in an article in The Athletic earlier this month where they predicted an easy Alabama victory. It’s funny how these coaches know more about the intricacies of the Crimson Tide than they do the Wolverines considering Michigan has won 24 games in a row in conference play. There are a lot of haters in the Big Ten against Jim Harbaugh right now — epitomized by the moral panic surrounding the pending investigation regarding overzealous sign decoding schemes (every football team attempts to “steal” signs — and it is mostly a legal practice). Any doubt that the Wolverines' recent success was due to an illegal or unethical theft of inside information was debunked in November when they soundly defeated Penn State and Ohio State. Critics downplay their strength of schedule — but the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are widely considered two of the top-ten teams in the nation and that Iowa team they beat in the Big Ten Championship Game had the best statistical defense in the nation. The passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Only throwing the ball eight times against Penn State but still winning on the road by nine points is a sign of domination. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Critics also reference Michigan’s six-game losing streak in bowl games. The loss in the playoffs against Georgia two years ago was not unexpected — but last year’s loss to TCU was reflective of an arrogant offensive game plan that was compounded by McCarthy throwing two pick-sixes. Both Harbaugh and McCarthy have waited all season to redeem themselves from that game — and the entire team should benefit from their recent playoff experience that these Alabama players do not have. The other four bowl game losses mean next to nothing since they were pre-COVID and during a period when Harbaugh began using lesser-tiered bowl games as the audition for the upcoming season. Three straight victories against Ohio State demonstrate Harbaugh can prepare his team for big games. Michigan has been the most consistent team in the country this season. While they want to win behind their dominant offensive line and two-headed monster of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, McCarthy has demonstrated he can win games with his arm and with his mobility. The Wolverines' defense is elite after allowing only 239.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 9.5 Points-Per-Game. Harbaugh claimed there are at least 17 players on the roster who will be drafted into the NFL in April. While Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, their player development takes a back seat to no program. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a victory against a Big Ten rival. Protecting the football has been a priority since the loss to TCU last year. Michigan has only seven turnovers all season — and they did not turn the ball over in nine of their games including against Ohio State and Iowa. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. Alabama deserves plenty of credit for upsetting Georgia — but the narrative all season was how down this team was from previous seasons. They needed a miracle final pass play from Jalen Milroe to beat Auburn. And while Milroe improved as offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his game plans for his skill set, and he struggles with accuracy and reading defenses. He had only one Big Time Throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in his 62 passes in the 10-19 yard range. His offensive line is not as stout as in previous seasons — they ranked 128th in sacks allowed. The wide receiver unit has lacked elite talent for two years and is no longer an NFL factory. The secondary remains outstanding — but the defensive line is not nearly as stout. Alabama ranks 58th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Line Yards — and they rank 103rd in Stuff Rate. They have struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Auburn’s Payton Thorne who is not as dangerous as McCarthy. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory. And while they have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck declared that this Michigan team may be the best college team he has ever coached against after playing them earlier in the season. I think the notion of SEC dominance is already dead in the NIL and transfer portal era. What was Georgia’s best win this season? What was Alabama’s second-best win? Are they being elevated because of legacy? Granted, the same can be said about Michigan and Ohio State — and that is where laptops come in which generally project a point spread larger than the market’s betting line. The Buckeyes might have outplayed Georgia in the semifinals last year (and won that game if Marvin Harrison does not get injured). The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 7 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-3) had their four-game winning streak snapped in their 26-0 loss to Michigan as a 21.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Tennessee (8-4) ended their two-game losing streak in a 48-24 victory against Vanderbilt as a 27-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa is many bettor’s Kryptonite because of their anemic offense — and they are an even uglier underdog coming off a shutout loss to Michigan. But the Hawkeyes defense is one of the best in the nation — and they are balanced as they rank 12th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 7th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They held their opponents to only 274.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 13.2 Points-Per-Game. Iowa also has an elite special teams unit. The key to playing against a Kirk Ferentz-coached team is to not play aggressively since they feast on mistakes — but I am not sure that is in Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s DNA, especially in a bowl game with little at stake. Given that Heupel is turning to his blue-chip freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava in this game only compounds this potential problem for the Volunteers. Look for much of Iowa’s scoring coming from exploiting mistakes Tennessee makes in this game. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss including four of these last five circumstances. They have not allowed more than 264 yards in their last two games after the Wolverines only managed to gain 213 yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two or more games in a row. Admittedly, Iowa has not scored more than 15 points in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than 17 points in three or more games in a row. And while they have only averaged 234.4 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games for failing to average more than 250 YPG in their last three contests. The Hawkeyes' only significant player not playing in this game is wide receiver Diante Vines who entered the transfer portal. The Iowa offensive line is healthy again after the month off. Tennessee has had some defections that will be impactful. Quarterback Joe Milton has opted out of this game which is why Iamaleava is getting his shot. The Volunteers will also be without their top two running backs after Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small opted out of this game. Additionally, the Tennessee defense has taken some hits with defensive end Tyler Baron, safety Wesley Walker, and cornerback  Doneiko Slaughter heading the long list of players that entered the transfer portal. The Volunteers surrendered 376.6 YPG and 27.8 PPG in their five games away from home. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. And while they outgained the Commodores by +311 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Ferentz has won ten bowl games in his long tenure at Iowa — and the Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 10* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (132) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota’s 390 yards last week against the Lions was one more yard than they allowed — but they fell short because of a -3 net turnover margin. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss at home. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. Mullens threw for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have given up 57 combined points in two straight games — they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests. The Vikings stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. Green Bay got outgained by -25 net yards last week after surrendering 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (132) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers surrendered 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. They have given up 64 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two games in a row. Additionally, Green Bay has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Vikings are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will dial up plenty of blitzes tonight — but Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has had success this season against the blitz. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in December. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. The Vikings have played 6 straight Overs when playing at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. The Vikings gained 390 net yards last week against the Lions with Mullens throwing for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota stays at home where they have played 6 straight Overs in December — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. The Packers allow their opponents to complete 65.9% of their passes and generate 352.0 total YPG — and the Vikings have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow 350 or more YPG. Minnesota has also played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th. The Packers have played 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (130) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (129). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-8) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-23 upset loss to New England as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-10) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 24-22 loss to Buffalo as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Chargers last week with the expectation that the team would play better after Brandon Staley was finally fired. Getting rid of the proverbial Wicked Witch of the West united the team much like the Las Vegas Raiders have rallied around each other after their hated head coach Josh McDaniels was let go. While the Raiders continue to fight for their interim head coach Antonio Pierce with the hope that owner Mark Davis will tap him as their permanent boss, there is little chance that the Chargers interim head coach Giff Smith will be given the permanent job. Last week was likely a dead cat’s bounce for this team. As it is, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss by seven points or less. The Chargers benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against the Bills — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. They only rushed for 98 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in their last game. This group is a M*A*S*H unit right now. The offense is without quarterback Justin Herbert along with wide receivers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and now even Joshua Palmer who played last week. The defense is missing Joey Bosa and Kenneth Murray among several players. Denver has their opportunity to demonstrate how good they can be once a toxic individual is removed from the equation with Russell Wilson now benched to ensure he does not get injured which would trigger a $37 million guarantee in his contract in March. Many of Wilson’s teammates consider him phony with his NDAs and past disclosures that he was celibate before marrying his supermodel wife (I’m not throwing shade about celibacy — but bragging about it begins to draw attention). It was only last week when Wilson proclaimed how happy he was to be running his Seattle offense again where he could take advantage of his legs. That, frankly, is a lie since he was very vocal about wanting to emulate the second half of his career like Drew Brees where he relied on his arm — it’s the entire foundation for him getting out of Seattle because they would not “let him cook.” These teammates saw Wilson sign his $242 million extension while gaining 20 pounds last year — that must have been Nathaniel Hackett’s fault too. Yep, I think the Broncos are going to step up their effort with Wilson exiled. Head coach Sean Payton likes Jarrett Stidham which is why he signed him as a free agent away from the Raiders. Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss by six points or less. Denver has not covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against AFC rivals. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (130) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost two games in a row after their 33-25 loss at Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog last Monday. Los Angeles (8-7) has won two in a row and five of their last six games after their 30-22 victory against New Orleans as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York kept things too close for comfort for the Eagles last week despite getting outgained by -173 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they still covered the point spread. This team has exceeded point spread expectations lately having only failed to cover the point spread once in their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. New York returns home where they have won three of their last four games. The Giants' defense has been under-the-radar tough at home where they are holding their opponents to 279.8 total Yards-Per-Game and just 18.8 Points-Per-Game this season. Tyrod Taylor gets the start at quarterback — and the veteran should stabilize the position for head coach Brian Daboll. In his last three starts, Taylor has a 92.8 Passer Rating with no interceptions. Los Angeles is riding high right now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 34 passes for 328 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Saints last week — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Rams have only given up seven combined points in the first half of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. But the Los Angeles defense has been leaky lately — and Aaron Donald has taken a step back in his production with him no longer being the best defensive player in the NFL. The Rams have surrendered 26.3 PPG in their last three games — and they rank 27th in the NFL during that span by allowing 5.8 Yards-Per-Play. They also rank 30th in the last three weeks by giving up 277.3 passing YPG. Los Angeles has not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Los Angeles team that has playoff aspirations — and with their five victories, they are out of the Caleb Williams chase for the top pick in the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). THE SITUATION: Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions generated 389 yards against the Vikings last week with the offensive line playing better together now that center Frank Ragnow is healthy again. But Detroit gave up 390 yards to the Vikings offense in the victory. The Lions go back on the road where they are allowing 25.3 PPG — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home. But Detroit has rushed for at least 140 yards in five straight games behind their two-headed monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs — and three of those games were on the road. The Cowboys can be run on as the Buffalo Bills demonstrated by gouging them for 266 yards on 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry two weeks ago. The Lions have played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a victory on the road over a divisional rival. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. And in their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher, Detroit has played 4 of these games Over the Total. The Lions are completing 67.7% of their passes this season — and the Cowboys have played 26 of their last 38 home games in the second half of the season Over the Total against opponents who are completing 64% or more of their passes. Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. They have been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 15 of their last 23 home games Over the Total when favored. Dallas has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Lions have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Dallas has been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense limits their opponents to only 289.7 total YPG and just 15.4 PPG at home. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. Detroit may be due to an emotional letdown after clinching the NFC North title last week in what was their first division title since 1993. As it is, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road after winning two games in a row. And while Detroit has won six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Lions go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.5 PPG. Detroit is allowing 25.3 PPG on the road — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games against fellow NFC rivals. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Toledo (11-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 23-14 loss to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Wyoming (8-4) has won two games in a row after their 42-6 victory at Nevada as an 11-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets will be without their top two offensive players in this game after both starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone entered the transfer portal. Finn was the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year while Boone rushed for 1400 yards on 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Their losses are significant. As it is, while Toledo generated 428.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 33.6 Points-Per-Game, those drop to 399.3 YPG and 25.9 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Toledo has a tough defense that held their opponents to just 329.7 total YPG and 20.6 PPG. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is expected to opt-put — but the Rockets' secondary is loaded with experience and talent led by safety Maxen Hook who is a two-time All-MAC award winner. Toledo has only forced one turnover in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight games. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game. Wyoming held the Wolf Pack to just 201 yards in their most recent game. The Cowboys held their opponents to only 22.9 PPG this season. Wyoming has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they limited Nevada to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 4 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to 4.0 or fewer YPP. They outgained the Wolf Pack by +208 net yards — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG. The Cowboys have only given up 85 total rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. With this being head coach Craig Bohl’s final game with the team before his retirement, a spirited effort is expected. But the offensive side of the ball has faced some turmoil after offensive coordinator Tim Polasek left to take the head coaching job at North Dakota State. In their five games away from home, the Cowboys generated only 286.6 total YPG resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Wyoming has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo is outscoring their opponents by +13.0 PPG — and the Cowboys have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Rockets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total against opponents winning 60-75% of their games. 25* CFB Group of Five Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) looks to rebound from their 30-24 loss at Michigan as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. Missouri (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 48-14 win at Arkansas as a 9-point favorite on November 24th. This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State outgained the Wolverines by a +38 net yards but was held back by a -2 net turnover margin. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. This team is dealing with several opt-outs and transfers. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. and defensive tackle Mike Hall are opting out for the NFL. The long transfer portal list includes starting quarterback Kyle McCord, wide receiver Julian Fleming, and reliable running back Chip Trayanum. But Ohio State still has plenty of high-end talent playing in this game who are future NFL players. Star running back TreVeyon Henderson has decided to play in this game — and that speaks loudly as to how seriously this team is treating this contest. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is playing and will use this game to showcase his skills as the clear number one option. The defense still has defensive end Jack Sawyer, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, and cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock. This bowl game offers head coach Ryan Day to begin auditioning for starting jobs for next season. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of bowl practices is redshirt freshman quarterback Devin Brown. While he lost the competition for the starting job to McCord in the spring, his athleticism still got him onto the field for 72 snaps including some important goal-line sequences before he got injured in the Penn State game. Brown is yet another blue-chipper — and he may not be a drop off from McCord whose up-and-down play led to him leaving the program (for Syracuse!). Ohio State does significantly better than Missouri in recruiting season after season. Look for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to get back to his roots regarding aggressive schemes after he scaled things back after Michigan and Georgia consistently burned them on explosive plays. The Buckeyes have not forced more than one turnover in seven straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing three or more games in a row after failing to force more than one turnover in a game. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting two or more weeks of rest and preparation. Missouri only gained 370 total yards against the Razorbacks despite scoring 48 points. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. Their win against Arkansas came after a 33-31 win against Florida the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two or more games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored. Missouri was one of the surprise teams in the country this season — they pulled off three upset victories to reach ten wins. They also benefited from a 4-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession — and they also enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin. First-year offensive coordinator Kirby Moore did a nice job installing game plans that put junior quarterback Brady Cook into a position to succeed — and five-start wide receiver Luther Burden III is a future NFL start. But the Buckeyes have studied these schemes for a month. The Tigers' defense will be down to starters with cornerback Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’ron Hopper dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in non-conference play. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field with the Total set at 49.5-52. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-3) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 45-21 victory at Temple as a 13-point favorite on November 24th. Iowa State (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 42-35 upset win at Kansas State as a 10-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Tigers home field at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis hosts this game — and while I do not expect a rowdy afternoon crowd for this game, I find much of the home-field advantage in football coming from familiarity and lack of travel which the Tigers will enjoy for this contest. The Tigers won four of their five home games this season to extend their home winning streak since 2017 to 29-5 straight-up — and they have a 55-11 record at home in the last ten seasons. Furthermore, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Tigers have played four straight Overs after their final regular season game with the Owls flew Over the 64-point Total — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. Head coach Ryan Silverfield is dealing with some missing players including two starters on the offensive line who are in the transfer portal. But junior quarterback Seth Henigan is playing after passing for 3519 yards with 28 touchdown passes, four rushing touchdowns, and only nine interceptions. He has his two favorite targets for this game in Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee who combined for 1806 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back Blake Watson is also playing in this game after rushing for 104 yards with 14 touchdowns. Memphis ranked tenth in the nation in Points-Per-Play on offense while generating 453.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 39.7 Points-Per-Game. The Cyclones struggle against potent offensive teams as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against opponents who generate 450 or more YPG. To make matters worse, they will be without their star cornerback T.J. Tampa who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spreading in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State Matt Campbell usually gets the most out of his roster - but the overall athleticism on the roster remains a question that was only made worse by the gambling scandal that impacted the team early in the season. It is telling that the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Memphis-Iowa State ESPN Special with the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 69-45 victory as a 10-point favorite against TCU on November 24th. Arizona (9-3) has won six games in a row with their 59-23 victory at Arizona State as a 10.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma has two new faces playing big roles with their offense since the victory against the Horned Frogs. Offensive coordinator Jeff Libby left the program to take the head coaching job at Mississippi State — so head coach Brent Venables tapped offensive analyst Seth Littrell as the new play-caller and offensive coordinator. Venables hired Littrell after he was let go as the North Texas head coach. He has previous experience as an offensive coordinator at Arizona, Indiana, and then North Carolina which got him the head coaching gig at North Texas. He runs an Air Raid offense as well — so there should be no drop-off. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel entered the transfer portal and will play at Oregon next season — so that opens the door for the Sooners to begin the Jackson Arnold era. The five-star freshman is considered a potential future first-round draft pick in the NFL. He completed 18 of 24 passes this season for 202 yards with an 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt average with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He is a threat with his legs as well with 78 rushing yards in his limited time on the field — and he thrives in operating within inside zone read rushing schemes. The Wildcats are vulnerable in this area — they allowed an Opponent Success Rate of 41% against inside zone rushing plays. If this was an early September game, Arnold would be given much respect — and after a few weeks of practice with the first team for bowl prep after being with the team all year, he should be ready to roll. Oklahoma has a long transfer and opt-out list — but the biggest losses are three starters on the offensive line. Arnold still has great weapons at his disposal in Drake Stoops, Nic Anderson, and Jalil Farooq. The defense got some great news when junior linebacker Danny Stutsman and junior safety Billy Bowman both announced they were returning for their senior seasons — and both are playing in this game. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in a victory as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. Additionally, Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Arizona may be due for an emotional letdown after their surprising regular season in the Pac-12 where they upset Oregon State, UCLA, and Utah. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning five games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after scoring 35 or more points in a victory over a Pac-12 rival. Arizona covered the point spread in ten of their twelve games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. Before beating the Sun Devils to conclude their regular season, they upset Utah by a 42-18 score — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two games in a row by double-digits against Pac-12 opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games on the road after scoring 37 or more points in their last two contests. The offense improved when head coach Jedd Fisch turned to redshirt freshman Noah Fifita as his starting quarterback — but the underlying metrics do raise some concerns. He had seven “Big Time” throws but eight turnover-worthy plays despite only five interceptions. That negative ratio is worrisome — especially with the Sooners given a month of preparation time. Fifita has a low adjusted completion percentage of 34% on his 38 throws of 20 or more air yards. To compound matters, Arizona star left tackle Jordan Morgan opted out for this game leaving the blind side duties to sophomore Joseph Borjon who only was involved in 175 plays this season.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored on a neutral field. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). THE SITUATION: New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland held the Texans to just 250 total yards last week — a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Browns return home where they have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. The Browns have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. New York has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury.  

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks 14-17 of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland dominated the Texans in yardage by generating 418 total yards and outgaining Houston by +168 net yards. A 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns are getting great play from quarterback Joe Flacco who completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards with three touchdowns. Flacco is 3-1 in his four starts for the team while averaging 326.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. He has unlocked the vertical passing game for head coach Kevin Stefanski that even Deshaun Watson was not able to accomplish. In his last three starts, Flacco is leading an offense that is generating 394.7 total YPG and 29.0 PPG. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Browns return home where they have been outstanding. They have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 PPG and outgaining them by +119.9 YPGG. The Browns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games with the Total set in the 32.5-35 point range. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by three points or less. The Jets held the ball for 36:16 minutes while gaining 26 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the time of possession for 34 or more minutes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread just once in their last four contests. The Jets were dominating the Commanders by going into halftime with a 27-7 score — but they almost gave the game away by getting outscored by a 21-3 margin in the second half. Their good defense is regressing after being asked to do so much this season — New York has given up 61 combined points in their last two games while surrendering 27 or more points in five of their last eight contests. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. In his lone start on the road this season, Trevor Siemian completed only 14 of 26 passes for just 110 yards with two interceptions in a 30-0 shutout loss at Miami. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New York can play the role of the spoiler tonight — but after the announcement this week from owner Woody Johnson that Aaron Rodgers will get his way with general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will return next season, I’m not sure the sense of urgency is as strong with this group. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The Rebels have allowed 477.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. Kansas held the Bearcats to just 111 passing yards in their final regular season game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing no more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Jayhawks generated 562 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after gaining 525 or more yards in their last game. The program has since lost offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. The offense also suffered a blow with starting left tackle Dominick Puni opting out for this game leaving them having to start a freshman to protect quarterback Jason Bean’s blind side. The Jayhawks rushed for 312 yards against Cincinnati — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after rushing for 300 or more yards in their last game. And while they rushed for 234 yards in their previous game against Kansas State, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after rushing for 225 or more yards in two straight games. The Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 straight games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. 8* CFB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks generated 562 total yards against the Bearcats — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Big 12 conference rival — and they have played 6 straight Overs after losing two of their last three games. The program did lose offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. Quarterback Jason Bean will lead an offense that ranks ninth in Pass Success Rate. Bean joins running back Devin Neal to form an explosive rushing attack that ranks 17th in Rushing Success Rate. By deploying plenty of counter schemes, Kansas sees 25% of their rushing plays go for at least 12 yards. But the Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in  28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight games. And in their last 33 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games, they played 23 of those games Over the Total. UNLV has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss to a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference opponent. They have also played 39 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. But the UNLV defense is vulnerable as they have given up 477.0 YPG and 36.0 PPG in their last three contests. They rank 126th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Rebels allowed 8.24 Yards-Per-Play to the Broncos in the MWC Championship Game — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP in their last contest. That game against Boise State finished Over the 62.5-point Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has scored 31 or more points in nine of their games — and Kansas has scored 31 or more points in eight of their contests. The Jayhawks have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when getting at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Rice (6-6) won their final two games of the season after a 24-21 victory against Florida Atlantic as a 4-point favorite on November 25th. Texas State (7-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 52-44 upset win against South Alabama as a 6-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an important game for Rice after they won their final two games of the season to become bowl-eligible. Winning this game would secure the Owls their first winning season in their six seasons under head coach Mike Bloomgren. They reached a bowl game last year despite a 5-7 record but lost 38-24 to Southern Mississippi in what was their first bowl game in eight seasons. Bloomgren is recruiting well — and this game offers an opportunity to showcase his program to a national audience and potential recruits. It is telling that he has no players opting out or entering the transfer portal. Sixth-year senior quarter J.T. Daniels did announce his retirement from college football due to medical reasons — but the offense is in good hands in redshirt freshman  A.J. Padgett who has 225 snaps under his belt after starting the last few games. Padgett completed 24 of 37 passes for 255 yards with three touchdowns and one interception against FAU. Padgett started in the Owls’ bowl game last year — and this start gives him a head start to claim the starting QB job next season. Rice usually builds off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And while they outgained FAU by +194 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +175 or more Yards-Per-Game. They did not force a turnover in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last contest. Florida Atlantic did average 6.49 Yards-Per-Play against them — but Rice has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. Texas State will be playing in their first-ever bowl game in what has been a triumphant season under first-year head coach G.J. Kinne. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent. Texas State generated 479 total yards against the Jaguars in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring 50 or more points in their last game. The Bobcats have a dynamic offense — but they are vulnerable against good passing teams as they rank 105th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Rice ranks 28th in Pass Success Rate. The Owls should be able to slow down the Texas State passing attack as well — they rank 35th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Rice has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing on field turf which is the surface at Gerald Ford Stadium. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl ESPN Special with the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-3) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 23-7 victory at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (11-3) has won six games in a row with their 45-29 win at Arizona as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Lamar Jackson has had great success in his career against teams from the NFC opponents — Baltimore has a 16-1 straight-up record in non-conference games with Jackson under center. The conventional wisdom is that teams unfamiliar with Jackson struggle to adapt to his unique skill set. Most teams do not have a player close to his talents who can come close to replicating his actions to practice against. The 49ers lack a speedy linebacker or safety who can effectively spy against him during the game. Furthermore, in Jackson’s last five games against teams ranking in the top-five in total defense, the Ravens have won all five of those games while scoring more than 25 Points-Per-Game with Jackson accounting for 11 touchdowns. While that 16-1 straight-up record against the NFC does not take into account the point spread, it certainly is an intriguing number when Baltimore is an underdog. Jackson combines with an outstanding defense that leads the NFL in scoring defense and sacks. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore rushed for 251 yards against the Jaguars — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 road games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. San Francisco actually got outgained by -30 net yards last week against the Cardinals. While nitpicking a 16-point win on the road against a division rival might be making too much of things, the fact that Arizona did generate 436 yards of offense against the 49ers' defense is cause for concern. The Cardinals generated 6.32 Yards-Per-Play against them after Seattle averaged 6.35 YPP the previous week — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after giving up 6.0 or more YPP in two straight games. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. And while the 49ers have scored 27 or more points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. 20* NFL Baltimore-San Francisco ABC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-3) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 23-7 victory at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (11-3) has won six games in a row with their 45-29 win at Arizona as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Ravens generated 396 yards of offense last week but did not push things with the scoreboard with them dominating the Jaguars. Baltimore has scored 31 or more points in six of their last eight games — and they are scoring 27.4 Points-Per-Game. In Lamar Jackson’s last five games against teams ranking in the top five in total defense, the Ravens are averaging more than 25 Points-Per-Game with Jackson accounting for 11 touchdowns. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Ravens have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Despite leading the NFL in scoring defense, Baltimore can get embroiled in shootouts. Cleveland scored 33 points against them in their upset victory that saw 64 combined points scored and the Los Angeles Rams scored 31 points against them two weeks ago in the Ravens win that had 68 combined points scored. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog. San Francisco has scored 27 or more points in six straight games. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory when they covered a double-digit point spread win. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. While nitpicking a 16-point win on the road against a division rival might be making too much of things, the fact that Arizona did generate 436 yards of offense against the 49ers' defense is cause for concern. The Cardinals generated 6.32 Yards-Per-Play against them after Seattle averaged 6.35 YPP the previous week — far above their 5.2 YPP defensive average for the season. The 49ers return home where have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when the favorite. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — and Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (6-8) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 63-21 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point favorite on December 14th. Kansas City (9-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 27-17 victory at New England as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders' unlikely offensive explosion was due primarily to the Chargers lack of focus in head coach Brandon Staley’s final game with the team — and their +5 net turnover margin helped put them in scoring position (and they scored a defensive touchdown on an interception). Las Vegas only gained 378 total yards in the game. They had not scored more than 17 points in four straight games and six of their last seven before that outburst on Thursday night. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. While the offense has been mostly subpar with rookie Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, the Las Vegas defense has been much better since Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach. Under his leadership, the Raiders are holding their opponents to 15.5 Ppints-Per-Game after giving up more than 24 PPG under previous head coach Josh McDaniels. Now Las Vegas goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.  Kansas City held the Patriots to just 206 total yards last week in their 10-point victory. The Chiefs have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 21 points. But it is the offense that has been the bigger surprise for the defending Super Bowl champions as they have not scored more than 21 points in five of their last seven contests. Tight end Travis Kelce is beginning to show his age and the wide receiver corps has not seen a reliable second option emerge. Head coach Andy Reid is so fed up with Kadarius Toney’s mistakes that he did not even practice this week — and he is not active for this game. Rookie Rashee Rice has shown flashes — but this team would be much better off if he was the third option rather than the second. Kansas City has not rushed for more than 82 yards in two straight games as well — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than  99 yards in two straight games. The Chiefs have lost the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 5 straight Unders after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in three or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.8 total YPG resulting in just 16.2 PPG. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Monday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Denver Broncos (476). THE SITUATION: New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos gave up 185 rushing yards last week to the Lions — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Denver has covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games including four of these last five circumstances. Denver generated only 297.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game. But their defense is holding their opponents to 330.9 total YPG resulting in 20.1 PPG for these foes. Now they host a Patriots offense decimated by injuries. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns. Bailey Zappe remains their starting quarterback with Mac Jones permanently benched. Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. As it is, the Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: We have gotten burned with our Under plays lately — but following the evidence remains the best long-term approach for success. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. The Broncos have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Denver Broncos (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Lions last Saturday night — but I like the bounce-back spot for Denver who return home again after playing their last three games on the road. The Broncos have a 4-3 record against teams who were in a position to make the playoffs before games started today. They have beaten both Kansas City and Cleveland at home by 15 and 17 points respectively — so this revamped group under head coach Sean Payton that is emphasizing ball control, running the football, and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much has proven capable of covering a point spread of seven or so points when playing at home. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing by ten or more points in their last game. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 21-0 score last week, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than three points in their last game. The Broncos did not force a turnover last week — but they still have 17 takeaways in their last seven games while forcing multiple turnovers in five of those contests. Now they host a Patriots team that has committed at least one turnover in 11 straight games — and they have only played one clean game where they did not turn the ball over. They are averaging 1.6 turnovers per game. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after losing three of their last four games. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Patriots are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG. Bailey Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are getting outscored by -7.4 PPG when playing on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog. It is a drag to play on the road in high altitude in Denver on Christmas Eve — especially when it has already been a lost season. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (469) minus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (470). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (8-6) has lost three games in a row after their 23-7 loss to Baltimore as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-7) has won three games in a row with their 34-20 upset victory at Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINT(S): Jacksonville is expected to play this afternoon after clearing the concussion protocol yesterday and then getting through the pre-game drills on the field earlier this afternoon. Obviously, his presence on the field makes a big difference in backing the Jaguars as a road favorite as opposed to C.J. Beathard. Jacksonville was held scoreless in the first half last week in their loss to the Ravens — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their previous game. Now they go back on the road where they have played well by winning five of their six games. They are outgaining their home hosts by +28.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They are also outscoring the home teams by +6.8 Points-Per-Game while holding them to just 19.1 PPG. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Additionally, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. Baker Mayfield completed 22 of 28 passes for 381 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in his spectacular effort against the Packers — but Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tampa Bay returns home where they are just 3-3 and scoring only 16.3 PPG. The Bucs are getting outscored by -0.7 PPG and outgained by -21.2 net YPG. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when they are the underdogs.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (469) minus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-9) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 63-31 loss at Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog on December 14th. Buffalo (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 31-10 victory against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: A periodic reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams — and these are too many points for a home dog that will have something to prove now that their unpopular head coach is now gone. Brandon Staley was finally fired last Friday after the team sent their message to ownership in their complete and utter no-show against the Raiders on prime-time television. We were on Las Vegas for that game — but now after that public embarrassment, expect one of the hardest efforts from this Los Angeles team now that the proverbial Wicked Witch of the West is finally dead. The coordinators' responsibilities remain basically in tact with outside linebackers coach Giff Smith being tapped as the interim head coach for the rest of the season. Like interim head coach Antonio Pierce with the Raiders, Smith is very popular in the locker room — I expect this group to play hard out of professional pride. Frankly, the defense cannot play worse — and I expect a much better performance now that defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley is calling plays rather than Staley’s schemes that seemed to be Aaron Donald-dependent from his one year as the DC with the Los Angeles Rams. As it is, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. Furthermore, while Los Angeles has not covered the point spread in their last two games and they have covered the point spread only once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Look for the Chargers to attempt to run the ball more to protect their defense and ask less of backup quarterback Easton Stick (playing for Justin Herbert who is out the season) as they have not rushed for more than 92 yards in four straight games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after failing to rush for 100 or more yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for 100 or more yards in three straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bills have not allowed more than 17 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in their last two games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a home game that finished Under the Total. Buffalo got their ground game going by rushing for 266 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after rushing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Much of the Bills’ success has been protecting the football as they have won the turnover battle in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Buffalo has not been dominant on the road this season where they have a 2-5 record. While they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +64.0 net Yards-Per-Game, they are outscoring their home hosts by just +1.9 PPG and outgaining them by +14.0 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: After a three-week gauntlet where they played at Philadelphia, at Kansas City, and then home at Dallas in a must-win game, don’t be surprised if the Bills exhale in this contest. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Buffalo-LA Chargers Peacock Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Los Angeles Chargers (456). THE SITUATION:  Buffalo (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 31-10 victory against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-9) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 63-31 loss at Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog on December 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Since replacing fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, new OC Joe Brady has committed to running the ball more. In the Bills' last five games, they have rushed for 879 yards for a 176 rushing Yards-Per-Game average. This has helped the Bills' defense as they have held their last four opponents to 17.5 Points-Per-Game. They limited the Cowboys to just 195 total yards last week. Now they go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total — and they have played 38 of their last 59 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. Additionally, Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games overall Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And in their last 12 road games against AFC opponents, the Bills have played 10 of those games Under the Total. Across the sidelines, Brandon Staley was finally fired last Friday after the team sent their message to ownership in their complete and utter no-show against the Raiders on prime-time television. Frankly, the defense cannot play worse — and I expect a much better performance now that defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley is calling plays rather than Staley’s schemes that seemed to be Aaron Donald-dependent from his one year as the DC with the Los Angeles Rams. The Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed Las Vegas to generate 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. The defense was not really the problem last week as the Raiders only generated 378 total yards — it was their -5 net turnover margin that gave Las Vegas short fields as they raced out to a 42-0 halftime lead. The Chargers return home where they have played 31 of their last 47 home games Under the Total after a game where they posted a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Los Angeles Chargers (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (454) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (453). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bengals outlasted the Vikings last week despite getting outgained by -46 net yards and allowing the Nick Mullens-led offense to gain 424 yards against them. Cincinnati has averaged 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after generating 375 or more YPG in their last three contests. Quarterback Jake Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Cincinnati is also allowing their home hosts to average 380.8 YPG and 25.5 PPG. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC North rivals. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Furthermore, while the Steelers have not covered the point spread during their three-game losing streak, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight contests. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. If there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG. But after gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured, Rudolph does have experience as he has ten career NFL starts under his belt — and he is trusted by Tomlin which is why he has remained with the franchise over his six-year career. The Steelers have a good opportunity to have success running the football given the season-ending injury to defensive tackle D.J. Reader who is one of the best run defenders in the league. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score 14 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh generated 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry for 153 rushing yards against the Bengals defense even with Reader patrolling the line of scrimmage in their 16-10 victory in Cincinnati on November 26th. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss by seven points or less. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Pittsburgh NBC-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (454) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a victory by three points or less at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while quarterback Jake Browning has led his team to at least 27 points in three straight games, Cincinnati has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a two-game home stand. As it is, Cincinnati is generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Steelers have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 11 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two more Overs in a row. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog. After gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 18 points in five straight games — and now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured. But if there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Cincinnati has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-4) limps into this game on a four-game losing streak after their 27-19 loss at Boise State as a 7-point underdog on November 24th. James Madison (11-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to Appalachian State with a 56-14 victory at Coastal Carolina as an 8.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Air Force opened their campaign with eight straight victories before a demoralizing 24-3  loss to Army that jeopardized their ability to claim their second-straight Commanders Cup. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier then got injured the next week at Hawai’i and did not play in the final two games of the regular season which played a big role in the Falcons slide. Larrier is expected to take the field this afternoon after taking part in bowl practices and being listed atop the quarterback depth chart of head coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force generated 33.6 Points-Per-Game during their eight-game winning streak while scoring at least 30 points five times — so Larrier’s return is a big boost to their offensive attack as the former 200-meter track champion is a threat with his legs in the flexbone system. And with Larrier’s arm, this offense led the nation in Passing Explosiveness for the times they did go to the air. The Falcons will also bring a very good defense with them that held their opponents to 278.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 17.9 PPG. Air Force ranks 34th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 30th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to three points. Air Force should have close to a full roster for this game with opt-outs and transfers rarely an issue for service academy programs — and the injury list is light. James Madison has many players entering the transfer portal — but all of these players are still playing in this game as they try to end a great season on a high note. But they will not have head coach Curt Cignetti who left the program to take the Indiana head coaching job — and he took offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, quarterbacks coach Tino Sunseri, and defensive coordinator Bryant Haines with him. Offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski serves as the interim head coach — but only four other assistant coaches remain which required the program to hire five temporary coaches to help prepare for this game. I don’t love that dynamic for the Dukes — and I have no idea how effective the coaching will be on defense to address the unique Air Force flexbone triple option attack. It is fair to say that this is less than ideal. James Madison has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they held a 28-0 halftime lead against the Chanticleers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. Having senior quarterback Jordan McCloud under center one more time before he transfers away from the program certainly helps — but while the Dukes’ passing attack ranked fifth in Passing Success Rate, they ranked just 91st in Pass Explosiveness. Their rushing game ranked just 101st in Rushing Explosiveness as well.

FINAL TAKE: While many think the name of the game in handicapping college bowl games is assessing “motivation”, I consider that folly. First, it just guessing — and if you are guessing, you are losing. Most of the time, there is a lack of evidence for the guess since it is impossible to read the hearts and minds of the players. Secondly, the oddsmakers already take the “motivation” narrative into account — so basing bets on that analysis is actually counter-productive since one is simply doubling down on that guess.  That said, I suspect the James Madison players will be motivated. But we don’t have to guess about Air Force as Calhoun consistently has his teams ready to play in bowl games. Here is actual evidence: the Falcons have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games in December including 11 of their last 17 bowl games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 bowl games under Calhoun — and that is a trend that refutes the trendy conventional wisdom that Air Force loses its strategic edge with their unique offensive schemes since their opponents have more time to prepare. 25* CFB Group of Five Game of the Year with the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.                                              

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-23 loss to Georgia as a 24-point underdog on November 25th. Central Florida (6-6) has won three of their last four games after their 27-13 victory against Houston as a 14-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech was inconsistent this season — they upset Miami (FL) and North Carolina while playing Georgia close but got blown out by Clemson and Ole Miss while losing by double-digits to Bowling Green. This is an important game in the first full season under head coach Brent Key — so I look for a strong effort tonight. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded whether their 4-4 record after Key took over as the interim head coach last season was a product of a genuine turnaround of the program or just the proverbial dead cat bounce after the end of the Geoff Collins four-era era with the program? Key seems to have this program moving in the right direction. With former Texas A&M transfer Hunter King at quarterback, the Yellow Jackets finally found a consistent offensive identity in the aftermath of moving away from the Paul Johnson triple option era of the last decade that led to hiring Geoff Collins from Temple to attempt to oversee the transition to a pro-style offense. Georgia Tech generated 432.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 31.2 Points-Per-Game. King tossed 26 touchdown passes. The primary strength of the offense comes from their rushing attack which ranks 22nd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate and sixth in Offensive Line Yards. They have rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their last six contests. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Central Florida gained 476 total yards in their win against the Cougars — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Led by quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, the Knights enjoy a good balanced offense — but the Yellow Jackets should have success running the ball against them. Central Florida ranks 124th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 112th in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. They allowed four Big 12 foes to rush for at least 200 yards against them including Kansas to rolled up 399 rushing yards against them. The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The transfer portal and opt-out situation for this game are relatively minor and pretty balanced. UCF will miss four players who entered the transfer portal with the biggest loss being starting cornerback Corey Thornton. Georgia Tech will be without defensive end Kyle Kennard and cornerback Kenan Johnson who are in the transfer portal. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral field as an underdog — and the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a favorite laying up to seven points. 10* CFB Gasparilla Bowl ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans remains firmly in the NFC playoff race as they are tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South while being in a multi-team tie for the second and third spots in the NFC wildcard race. The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans preceded their dominant victory against the Giants with a 28-6 victory against Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after winning their last two games by 14 or more points. The Saints have failed to rush for more than 97 yards in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not rushing for 100 or more yards in two straight games. They go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG resulting in only 19.0 PPG — and they are outscoring these teams by +3.3 PPG and outgaining them by +47.6 net YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Rams are healthy again and feasting on subpar teams — but quarterback Matthew Stafford has lost all four of his starts this season against a top-ten scoring defense. And on the other side of the ball, Aaron Donald has not been as dominant — in his last four games, he has only eight tackles, one tackle for loss, and just 0.5 sacks. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not retain much home-field advantage in that market — they have failed to cover the point spread in 45 of their last 70 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The good news on the injury front for New Orleans is that wide receiver Chris Olave is “good to go” to take the field tonight after he missed last week’s game due to an ankle injury. The Saints have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the final four weeks of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans has played 6 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to under ten points. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Saints have played two straight Unders — and not only have them played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game, they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. The problem for this team is that they managed only 296 total yards in beating the Giants last week. New Orleans is generating only 288.3 total YPG in their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. The Saints have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles held the Commanders to just 297 total yards in their win last week. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Los Angeles offense has generated 418.9 total YPG in their last three games — and they have gained at least 399 yards in four straight contests. But the Rams have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. The Rams are only scoring 23.0 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium — but they are holding their guests to 20.1 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 straight Unders in the final four weeks of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (327) and the Seattle Seahawks (328). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given both of these quarterback situations, I expect both of these teams to attempt to impose their physicality by running the football and controlling the line of scrimmage. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Philadelphia defense needs help after allowing 451.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Head coach Nick Sirianni has shaken things up by moving defensive coordinator Sean Desai up to the booth to be able to observe the field better. It’s unclear if Matt Patricia will now be calling the plays or if he will be on the sidelines to relay the defensive play calls to the defense. At the very least, I suspect the Eagles' defense to shake some things up tonight. Not playing the Buffalo, San Francisco, and Dallas offenses will certainly help as Sirianni’s group has gone through a gauntlet recently. Philly stays on the road where they have played 15 of their last 25 road games Under the Total. Seattle has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous two games. The Seahawks surrendered 354 passing yards last week to the 49ers — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game.  Seattle returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have played 4 straight Unders on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (327) and the Seattle Seahawks (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given the number of more than a field goal, I like the Seahawks as a home underdog. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have gone through a gauntlet of a schedule that started at home against Dallas before playing at Kansas City, going home for Buffalo and San Francisco before traveling to Dallas last week. While some observers think this is their “get-right” game, I do not consider playing in Seattle for a prime-time game against a Seahawks team playing for their playoff lives to be an easy assignment. Philly has their two games with the New York Giants coming up with Arizona sandwiched in the middle — those are the “get-right” opportunities. The Eagles have been outscored by -43 combined points in their last two games. And while I still consider them a legitimate threat to return to win the NFC and return to the Super Bowl, their ten victories are accompanied by historic numbers of underachievement. Since 2000, there have been 107 teams to win at least 10 games after the first 14 weeks of the season — and Philadelphia ranks 104th of those 107 teams with just a +21 net point differential. The Eagles defense is simply getting pounded. They have allowed 156 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Their weak secondary is giving up 260 passing YPG. Opponents are converting on 48.1% of their third down opportunities — and the Eagles' sack rate of 6.3% on opponent third down pass plays is last in the league. They are also allowing their opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the Red Zone. Resiliency has not been a feature for head coach Nick Sirianni’s team lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to an NFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, the Eagles have scored only six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Moving forward, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season. Seattle is desperate for a victory tonight to keep them on pace with the NFC logjam for the three wildcard slots with Minnesota, the LA Rams, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all at 7-7 (with the Saints or Buccaneers likely to win the NFC South). Lock did not play badly against the stout 49ers defense last week — while he did throw two interceptions in a losing effort, he completed 22 of 31 passes for 269 yards with two touchdown passes. He has great wide receivers to help him out — especially D.K. Metcalf who has been outstanding lately. Running back Kemba Walker returned to action last week — and he should be closer to full health tonight with another week (and a day) to rest up for this showdown. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after losing two games in a row under head coach Pete Carroll — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in all 6 of their games under Carroll after losing three or more games in a row (including last week). And while Seattle has allowed 28 or more points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their 27 games in the Carroll era after allowing 24 or more points in two straight games including 8 of these last 9 circumstances. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are allowing 353.9 total YPG, Seattle has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: There are some fascinating historical numbers behind this game. Carroll’s teams have an 18-6 straight-up record against opponents who have lost two games in a row by 20 or more points. And then there is the Seahawks' remarkable record in prime-time games. Seattle leads the NFL with a 29-12 all-time record on Monday Night Football. Since 2010, Seattle has a 34-16-1 straight up record in prime time with a 13-4 record on Monday Night Football. It will be rockin’ at Lumen Field tonight in what is one of the true home-field advantages in the NFL. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (330) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (329). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ravens generated 449 yards of offense against the Rams' defense despite being without the injured tight end Matt Andrews. Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season — but now they go on the road where those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning four of their last five games. Jacksonville has only won two of their last four games — but they have amped things up on the offensive side of the ball as they are scoring 29.0 PPG since only managing a field goal in their loss to San Francisco back on November 12th. The Jaguars have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Jacksonville Jaguars (330) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (329).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While Lamar Jackson gets most of the attention, it is the Ravens' defense that has led the way for them this season. The Baltimore defense ranks second in the league in efficiency according to the DVOAS metrics at the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is dialing up impressive schemes that have generated 49 combined sacks from 15 different players and each position group. The Ravens have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they scored 31 or more points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Ravens go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 15.7 Points-Per-Game. But while Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season, those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Jacksonville managed only 293 total yards last week in their loss a Cleveland. Now they return home where they are generating 315.7 total YPG resulting ing 21.8 PPG — those are drops by -2.2 PPG and -27.0 YPG from their season averages. The Jaguars have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Denver Broncos (311) and the Detroit Lions (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday. Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a win by double-digits. The Broncos have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, Denver has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos have held their last three opponents to just 301.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 13.7 Points-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Lions are only scoring 22.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they return home where they are holding their opponents to 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 22.7 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing a team from the AFC. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Denver Broncos (311) and the Detroit Lions (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). THE SITUATION: Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: I have been skeptical of the enormous hype surrounding this Detroit team ever since they played the role of the spoiler in beating Green Bay in Lambeau Field to ruin their postseason aspirations in the final game of the regular season last year — and as many supporters jump off their bandwagon now after a difficult stretch, this looks like a great opportunity to back them as they return home to Ford Field after a two-game road trip. As it is, the Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Turnovers have been one of the big issues as Detroit has 13 turnovers in their last six games while posting a -8 net turnover margin during that span. A -3 net turnover margin last week played a big role in their loss to the Bears — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Lions return home having covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game road trip. Detroit is outscoring their guests by +6.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +107.1 net Yards-Per-Game with them generating 406.8 YPG resulting in 28.7 PPG. And the Lions' defense has been much better at home where they allowing only 297.7 YPG. Quarterback Jared Goff plays at his best when at home in the controlled temperature of an indoor stadium — he is completing  69.8% of his passes with a QBR of 99.6 at home as compared to his 64.4% completion percentage and QBR of 90.8 when on the road this season. Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points. Hosting the Broncos who have forced 17 turnovers in their last six games offers head coach Dan Campbell the opportunity to stress the importance of protecting the football. Injuries have played a role in the Lions' subpar play recently — but they get perhaps the best center in the league back with Frank Ragnow returning from injury. The Lions should get back to running the football against this suspect Broncos run defense that is allowing 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry and 162 rushing YPG when on the road this season. And even if one wants to throw out their disaster in Miami where they lost by a 70-20 score while giving up 350 rushing yards, Denver still allowed 192 rushing yards to Buffalo and 175 to Minnesota — and now they play a Detroit team that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 137.5 rushing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset win by ten or more points as an underdog on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. If head coach Sean Payton has “fixed” Russell Wilson, it has been by having him run the Taysom Hill offense from his Saints-coaching days. While Wilson had 33 pass attempts in their easy win against the Chargers, that game was just the second time in his last eight games that he had more than 29 passes. The Broncos have scored more than 24 points only once in their last nine games despite their defense forcing turnovers at a very high rate. They have generated only 299.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they average just 295.8 total YPG when playing on the road. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of seven points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit plays their first game at home since embarrassing themselves in front of their home fans against Chicago on Thanksgiving — and it should be an electric atmosphere for this Saturday night prime-time game on national television. The Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (305) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (306). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6) has lost two straight games and three of their last four contests after their 21-18 upset loss to New England as a 5.5-point favorite back on December 7th. Indianapolis (7-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 34-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: I expected Pittsburgh to respond to their upset loss at home to Arizona with another flat effort at home as a favorite to a struggling Patriots team. The Steelers did not seem ready to play in that game on a short week despite playing at home in a prime time audience. They dug themselves a big hole by spotting New England a 21-3 lead midway through the second quarter. Usually, this team responds with good efforts after a bad performance under head coach Mike Tomlin — so that loss to the Patriots was out of character. But Pittsburgh has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home by three points or less. The Steelers have only covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Despite their recent struggles, Pittsburgh is still outgaining their opponents by +65.0 net Yards-Per-game. While Mitchell Trubisky has been spotty in replacing the injured Kenny Pickett at quarterback, the Steelers' defense remains stout. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.0 total YPG resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they have a 3-2 record due to their defense holding their home hosts to only 17.6 PPG. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog of up to three points. The Steelers should be able to get their ground game going with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren against this Colts defense that allows 132 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has been pretty fortunate to remain in the AFC playoff hunt as they got outgained in yardage in four of their last five games despite winning four of those contests. The Colts have won five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. Winning close games has obscured that they are getting outscored and outgained in yardage for the season. Indy has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they are only 2-4 this season. They are getting outscored by -2.3 net PPG at home while getting outgained in yardage. The Colts are allowing their guests to generate 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in the ground game and 380.3 total YPG resulting in 28.8 PPG. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is out with a thumb injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Indianapolis NFL Network Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (305) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206) in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won five games in a row after their 23-14 upset victory against Toledo as a 6.5-point underdog in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Appalachian State (8-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 49-23 loss at Troy as a 5.5-point underdog in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) will be using sophomore Henry Hesson at quarterback this afternoon given Aveon Smith’s decision to enter the transfer portal. Smith had been the team’s starting quarterback since Brett Gabbert suffered a season-ending leg injury. Frankly, while Smith was productive with his legs, he was not offering the RedHawks much offense in the passing game. Miami (OH) was always going to rely on the other two phases of the game. They are allowing only 16.2 Points-Per-Game this season while giving up just 326.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The RedHawks also have an outstanding special teams unit under head coach Chuck Martin. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 41 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Total was set in the 43.5 range against the Rockets in the MAC Championship Game — and they held Toledo to only 97 rushing yards on 29 carries. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Appalachian State may have trouble getting up for this game after getting blown out in their championship game. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. And while Appalachian State had covered the point spread in four straight contests before the loss to the Trojans, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Mountaineers are down four players who entered the transfer portal since that game with the biggest loss being their top running back Nate Noel who gained 834 rushing yards this season. Appalachian State is not a good defensive team as they allow their opponents to generate 389.9 total YPG which results in 28.4 PPG after Troy generated 463 yards against them — and they allow 30.9 PPG when playing on the road. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favorite — and Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5-10 points. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in all 4 of their bowl games under Martin’s tenure. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206). Best of luck for us — Frank.