10-21-24 |
Ravens v. Bucs +4.5 |
|
41-31 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (475). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-2) has won two of their last three games after their 51-27 victory at New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (4-2) has won four games in a row after their 30-23 victory at home against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay is a bit underrated. They are on the team in the NFL that ranks in the top-11 in the NFL in rushing and passing on offense as well as run defense and pass defense. They upset the Detroit Lions and they should be 5-1 except for a somewhat fluky loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Wide receiver Mike Evans is off the injury list — and defensive tackle Vita Vea is expected to play tonight after being listed as questionable all week. The offense generated a whopping 594 yards last week against the Saints — and they scored 114 combined points in their last three games. With the emergence of Sean Tucker last week, the Buccaneers have a three-headed monster at running back with Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and him. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning on the road in their previous game. Additionally, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. I don’t have much bad to say about Baltimore — but the concerns I had about their defense in my offseason deep-dive on the team seem to be coming to fruition. I worried about the brain drain on that side of the ball from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over the defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. The Ravens are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 7.5 yards per pass attempt which ranks 28th in the NFL. They also rank last in the league by surrendering 275.7 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who are giving up 235 or more passing YPG. And while Baltimore is averaging 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt this season, Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are averaging 7.0 or more YPA. Furthermore, while Lamar Jackson has an incredible 22-1 straight-up record against teams from the NFC, he is also just 21-31-1 ATS in his 53 starts in the NFL when favored by more than three points.
FINAL TAKE: With Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 10 of their 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 games as a dog getting more than three points with Mayfield under center. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tampa Bay ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-24 |
Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 51 |
|
41-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (475) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-2) has won four games in a row after their 30-23 victory at home against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-2) has won two of their last three games after their 51-27 victory at New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding rookie Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense to just 305 yards of offense. They lead the NFL in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They have been particularly stout against the run as they are holding their opponents to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry and 59.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. And while the Buccaneers are giving up 252.3 passing YPG, the Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are surrendering 235 or more passing YPG. Additionally, Baltimore has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Tampa Bay held the Saints to just 303 yards last week. The Buccaneers have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 straight Unders after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. The Bucs defense looks likely to get a boost tonight with defensive tackle Vita Vea expected to play after being listed as questionable all week. His return helps a defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards Allowed per opponent rushing attempt.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (475) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-24 |
Jets v. Steelers +2.5 |
|
15-37 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) plus the points versus the New York Jets (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. While the Jets are playing with a huge sense of urgency this week — that was also the case last week when they hosted Buffalo with first place in the AFC East on the line. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record. Russell Wilson gets the start tonight — but look for Justin Fields to still be on the field for special packages that take advantage of his running skills. Whether it is Fields or Wilson, the Pittsburgh offense is going to a run-first attack executing offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s game plan.
FINAL TAKE: The pressure cooker of this New York Jets team is even growing hotter and hotter the more they lose and then make more changes. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) plus the points versus the New York Jets (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-24 |
Jets v. Steelers UNDER 39.5 |
Top |
15-37 |
Loss |
-111 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York continues to play great defense — they are limiting their opponents to just 273.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.0 PPG. And while the Steelers are generating 131.5 rushing YPG, the Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG. Pittsburgh only gained 293 yards last week in their 19-point victory against the Raiders. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Pittsburgh held the Raiders to just 275 yards of offense last week. This stout Steelers defense is giving up only 294.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.3 PPG. The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 17 PPG. The sluggish offense has compelled head coach Mike Tomlin to bench Justin Fields in lieu of Russell Wilson at quarterback. It’s not surprising that the team wants to see if Wilson can jumpstart this offense. I am not optimistic. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' old seminar in his last few seasons in Green Bay on stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions in Denver last season under head coach Sean Payton — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continued to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. There is a reason that Payton concluded the best decision for the franchise was to eat his big contract and move on. Don’t be surprised if Wilson continues to take sacks and throw shorter passes in the Arthur Smith offense — but, hey, his front-line completion numbers won’t be too bad. Since 2022, Wilson is completing only 63.3% of his passed while averaging 219.8 passing YPG and posting a 90.9 Passer Rating. And while Wilson will still move in the pocket, he has lost a step (or two) from the secret sauce that made him so effective when he was a younger player with Seattle. The offense loses the x-factor of the rushing quarterback without Fields under center. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total between Weeks Five and Nine.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Jets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in that 35.5-42 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-24 |
Eagles v. Giants +3 |
Top |
28-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (466) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (465). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-7 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 4-point underdog last Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York outgained the Bengals last Sunday night by + 5 net yards. Despite their 2-4 record, the Giants are outgaining their opponents this season by +5.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Injuries have hit this team hard with passer rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and now left tackle Andrew Thomas out — but the offense is getting rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Devin Singletary back for this game. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games after losing their last game. They stay at home to play for just the third time this season. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after the first month of the season. Additionally, they have covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are generating 366.8 total Yards-Per-Game, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who average 350 or more YPG. Philadelphia is getting outscored this season by -1.2 Points-Per-Game despite their 3-2 record. The Eagles will be without tight end Dallas Goedert due to injury in this game. That’s not good news for an offense that is just the fourth NFL team in the last 15 years to fail to score in the first quarter after five games. I suspect this speaks to the lack of chemistry between embattled head coach Joe Sirianni, quarterback Jalen Hurts, and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games against NFC East rivals under Sirianni.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record. The Giants have covered the point spread in 14 of their 20 games against teams with a winning record under head coach Brian Daboll — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. 25* NFC East Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (466) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-24 |
Kansas State v. West Virginia +3 |
Top |
45-18 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (3-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 28-16 loss at home to Iowa State as a 3-point underdog. Kansas State (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 31-28 victory at Colorado as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia’s three losses are all against ranked teams — Penn State, Pittsburgh, and the Cyclones last week — who all remained undefeated so far this season. They are outscoring their opponents by +4.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +50.7 net Yards-Per-Game given a powerful offense that generates 428.5 YPG. The Mountaineers have a Thunder and Lightning backfield of Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson, Jr. along with dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene who rushed for 87 yards on ten carries last week against Iowa State. They rank 24th in the nation in Rush Success Rate. West Virginia should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing to a Big 12 rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Kansas State won a thriller on the road against the Buffaloes last week — but they have failed to cover the point spreads in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win against a Big 12 opponent. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Quarterback Avery Johnson can be inconsistent — especially on the road. In their 38-9 loss at BYU, Johnson threw two interceptions and only averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Wildcats are also vulnerable with their pass defense as they rank 104th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed while giving up 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has their in-state rivalry game against Kansas on deck next week — so they may be looking ahead. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Month is with the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-24 |
Broncos -1.5 v. Saints |
|
33-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (311) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) had won three games in a row before their 23-16 loss at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans (2-4) has lost four games in a row after their 51-27 loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Chargers last week coming off their bye week and getting healthier against their AFC West rivals. In this turnaround game on a short week, Denver’s defense is — by far — the best unit in this contest. With the Saints absolutely ravaged by injuries, head coach Sean Payton will manage this game effectively and limit big mistakes to help his rookie quarterback Bo Nix win this game. The Broncos' defense ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Denver ranks fourth in the league in pressure rate — and in the last four weeks, they lead the NFL with 93 pressures on the quarterback. The Saints will privilege running the football with rookie Spencer Rattler making his second professional start tonight. The Broncos are second in the NFL in stuffing the run at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, Denver is giving up only 284.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.0 Points-Per-Game. Nix is doing his job in limiting mistakes and making smart plays with his arm or his legs. He has seven touchdowns and only one interception in his last four games. He threw two touchdown passes last week and added another 61 yards on the ground from six carries. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road following a loss. And while they suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Chargers, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home following a loss. The Saints are simply ravaged by injuries right now. Quarterback Derek Carr is out once again which means Rattler will be under center. The offense gained only 303 total yards last week against the Buccaneers in his first career start. Starting wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Sheehan are both out leaving Rattler without their top two weapons in the passing game. The offensive line is banged up with starters Cesar Ruiz out and Lucas Patrick questionable. Even their joker threat Taysom Hill is doubtful to play which likely removes their short-yardage do-it-all threat. Rattler is going to struggle with the Broncos great pass rush. New Orleans ranks 29th in the league in Passing Blocking Win Rate — and they have given up 78 pressures on the quarterback in their last four games which is the fifth worst in the NFL during that span. The Saints offense has the second-fewest gains of 20 or more yards in the league. And after a good start to the season, the defense has plummeted quickly. New Orleans has allowed 457.3 YPG in their last four games — and their last two opponents have generated 319 passing YPG against them. Their run defense ranks third-worst in the league in stuff rate at or behind the line of scrimmage. Kansas City and Tampa Bay generated 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry against them in their last two games. The Saints stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in the first half of the season. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are giving up 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and the Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are surrendering 4.5 or more YPC. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with Denver Broncos (311) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-24 |
Broncos v. Saints UNDER 37 |
|
33-10 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) had won three games in a row before their 23-16 loss at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans (2-4) has lost four games in a row after their 51-27 loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver’s defense is — by far — the best unit in this contest. With the Saints absolutely ravaged by injuries, head coach Sean Payton will manage this game effectively and limit big mistakes to help his rookie quarterback Bo Nix win this game. The Broncos' defense ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Denver ranks fourth in the league in pressure rate — and in the last four weeks, they lead the NFL with 93 pressures on the quarterback. The Saints will privilege running the football with rookie Spencer Rattler making his second professional start tonight. The Broncos are second in the NFL in stuffing the run at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, Denver is giving up only 284.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.0 Points-Per-Game. But the offense ranks just 26th in Offensive DVOA — and they are only generating 278.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.7 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Saints are simply ravaged by injures right now. Quarterback Derek Carr is out once again which means Rattler will be under center. The offense gained only 303 total yards last week against the Buccaneers in his first career start. Starting wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Sheehan are both out leaving Rattler without their top two weapons in the passing game. The offensive line is banged up with starters Cesar Ruiz out and Lucas Patrick questionable. Even their joker threat Taysom Hill is doubtful to play which likely removes their short-yardage do-it-all threat. Rattler is going to struggle with the Broncos great pass rush. New Orleans ranks 29th in the league in Passing Blocking Win Rate — and they have given up 78 pressures on the quarterback in their last four games which is the fifth worst in the NFL during that span. The Saints offense has the second fewest gains of 20 or more yards in the league. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-24 |
Bills -1 v. Jets |
|
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (287) minus the point spread versus the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a gut-check game for both these divisional rivals. The situation says to take the Jets — but Buffalo is just as desperate to get things going again after losing two games in a row. The critics of head coach Sean McDermott for attempted three pass plays deep in the Bills’ end of the field late in the game against the Texans are ankle-biters. While I would have probably run the ball once to create some room for Josh Allen to make some passes while not standing in his end zone — and help out an eventual punt, if necessary — even running the ball three times and forcing Houston to burn all three of their timeouts was going to give C.J. Stroud enough time to get within field goal range. The Bills needed a first down — so keeping the ball in the hands of his superstar Allen makes sense. He looked hurt last week — but he should be a bit better this week with the opportunity to rest. Running back James Cook claims he is going to play tonight despite his turf toe. Curtis Samuel is ready to take more of a role in the passing game if Khalil Shakir cannot go. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as a favorite of up to seven points. And in their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range, the Bills have covered the point spread in 10 of those games. The culture McDermott has built in Buffalo is much better than with New York. The Jets are a hot mess. It looks like Aaron Rodgers got head coach Robert Saleh fired. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is the interim head coach — and he used his momentary position of leverage to take the play-calling duties away from Nathaniel Hackett, yet who will still stay employed by the team to do who knows what besides being Rodgers buddy. Rodgers denies all this — as if lying is an impossible act when speaking to NFL “insiders.” Maybe I have this situation wrong — but how many of Rodgers’ teammates will it take to believe that he is the de-facto general manager of the team for more dissension to mount? Saleh was popular in the locker room! Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. The Jets have played four straight Unders -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: I am well aware that NFL teams turning to an interim head coach have covered the point spread in 17 of the last 30 games in the first week after sacking the previous coach. I have often endorsed those sides! In this instance — with the Rodgers’ dynamic (and health), with Hackett still in the building, the pressure of being at home, and the absurdity of hiring a popular head coach whose defense has been playing great — I am skeptical that this is the move that (once again) finally compels this team to flip the switch and live to their preseason hype. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (287) minus the point spread versus the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-24 |
Bills v. Jets UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
23-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 276 yards of offense against the Texans. Josh Allen played his worst game of the season by completing just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards. Frankly, he looks injured and not playing close to 100% health. He has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 59 pass attempts. Now he faces a tough Jets defense that has held him to just a 74 Passer Rating in his last four games against them. The Bills offense may also be without wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook who are listed as questionable with the injuries. As it is, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders when on the road as the favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Bills defense has been playing well. That unit ranks tenth in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the pass using the metrics of the Football Outsiders. They also rank sixth in the league in fewest plays of 20 or more yards allowed. New York only gained 254 yards last week which led to the firing of head coach Robert Saleh and the removal of Nathaniel Hackett of the play-calling duties. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Aaron Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. But this Jets’ defense remains outstanding. They lead the league by holding their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play. They rank second in the NFL by allowing only 255.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 133.6 passing YPG. They are tied for fifth by giving up just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. The Jets have played four straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog of seven points or less. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-24 |
Bengals v. Giants +3.5 |
|
17-7 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (286) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (285). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: This Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game — but both of these players were unavailable last week in their upset win on the road against Seattle. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. He has Daniel Jones playing better at quarterback this season by, first and foremost, limiting his mistakes. He has thrown only two interceptions and has not lost a fumble in his five games this season. New York is getting better play on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The offensive line was battered with injuries last season, so being healthy this year has helped the cohesion of that group. The defensive line is much better after trading for Brian Burns in the offseason. The Giants return home to play for just the second time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at MetLife Stadium. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 10 games in October, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. Cincinnati is scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three games with a healthy wide receiver corps again — but their defense has been a disaster by allowing 29.0 PPG which is the second-highest mark in the league. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — and this plays right into Daboll’s desire to shorten this game by burning time off the clock. At first glance in my preseason deep dive on this team, I wanted to consider the Bengals on the short list of teams to overtake Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was slowed by a calf injury suffered early in last year’s training camp that helps explain Cincinnati’s 1-3 start where they generated only 12.3 Points-Per-Game. Burrow only completed 576% of his passes for 728 yards during that stretch. But after recovering, he completed 72.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in his next seven games before suffering his season-ending wrist injury. I remain concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while running back Joe Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? Then there is the defense that ranked 31st in the league by allowing 374.6 Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, losing safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell took away too much leadership (and play-calling) for an inexperienced defensive backfield that was starting rookies or second-year players by the end of the season. Covering for their mistakes could explain the down seasons for linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. After committing only 76 missed tackles in 2022-23, the Bengals missed 124 tackles last year, the second-highest jump in the NFL. Cincinnati has spent eight of their last ten draft picks in the first three rounds on the defensive side of the ball — so perhaps a growth spurt is coming from this investment in talent. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is as good as it gets. They brought back Bell in free agency while adding former Baltimore free safety Geno Stone to fortify the group with veterans. And while the Bengals faced 11 of 17 teams that ranked in the top 12 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, they still got outscored by 1.1 PPG and outgained by -55.7 net YPG. After more than a quarter into the season, the defense remains a significant problem. Could they count on a +10 net turnover margin again? Nope — so far they have five turnovers and five takeaways. Will team cohesion take a hit with both wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson wanting new deals? The team chemistry looks fragile with Burrow being caught on camera marching into the coach’s office after a recent loss. I concluded that the seeds are certainly in place for why this team once again sputters — and an overtime loss to Baltimore to see them drop to 1-4 has this team starting into the abyss. Their backers seem to think they can flip this switch as a road favorite of more than a field goal despite their only victory being against Carolina. The Giants think they can win this game against a struggling team.
FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (286) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (285). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-24 |
Bengals v. Giants UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
17-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I looked very closely at the Over for this game — how could one not after the Bengals have seen four straight games with at least 51 combined points scored with them scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three with the wide receivers back and healthy. But I also have my own database of empirical NFL angles to help inform my decisions — and in the last 47 NFL games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range involving one team that has played four or more games in a row with 50 or more combined points scored, 37 of those games finished Under the Total. Even with my long reports, I leave much of the evidence out that helped form my conclusion — and I rarely invoke empirical situational angles like this since so often it is just data-mining. But in this instance, I found it highly relevant. Why didn’t the books place the Total in the 50s given Cincinnati’s recent run? Well, as I argued when proffering the question as to why the Los Angeles Chargers were favored despite being on the road with a losing streak facing a home team on a winning streak, because the Chargers are going to cover the point spread — or, in this instance because tonight’s game is likely going to be lower scoring. New York had not scored more than 21 points in their first four games before last week — and they held the ball for an uncharacteristic 37:22 minutes in that game. Now this Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game. They are averaging only 321.4 total Yards-Per-Game. But the New York defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG which is resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. This dynamic has helped the Giants play 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the goal will certainly be to keep Joe Burrow off the field tonight. Furthermore, New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home. The Giants are allowing their opponents to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry -- and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — so don’t expect tons of Cincinnati possessions tonight which will help keep the score down.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-13-24 |
Chargers -3 v. Broncos |
Top |
23-16 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 17-10 loss at home to Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog back on September 29th. Denver (3-2) has won three games in a row after their 34-18 win at home against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Why is a team on the road who is on a two-game losing streak favored against a home team with a better record who is on a three-game winning streak? Well, the short answer is because they are going to cover the point spread. Here is the longer answer. Los Angeles has the better quarterback in Justin Herbert and the better roster overall — and they are coming off their bye week in much better health. Injuries have hit this team hard early on — especially on the offensive line with both left tackle Rashawn Slater and rookie right tackle Joe Alt having to miss the game against the Chiefs. But the Chargers were still competitive with the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. Herbert is not 100% either with his lingering ankle injury — so getting the week off should really help him. Head coach Jim Harbaugh gets both his starting tackles back for this game — and that can only help running back J.K. Dobbins. The former Ohio State star is finally healthy and demonstrating his vast potential by generating 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Los Angeles’ offensive numbers are not very good — but they should be taken with a grain of salt given their injuries. Their defensive numbers, on the other hand, are quite impressive so far this season despite the offense not offering much help. The Chargers lead the NFL by allowing only 12.5 Points-Per-Game and 282.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They also lead the league with their opponents only scoring touchdowns on 28.6% of their visits inside the Red Zone. These numbers are validated by the analytics at Football Outsiders that rank their defense as the second best in the league in Defensive DVOA. That unit gets safety, Derwin James, back as well after he was suspended last week for the Kansas City game. This team should take a step or two forward schematically under Harbaugh and his coaching staff coming off the bye week. And the veterans will remember that the Broncos won both games against them last season. Denver beat the Raiders last week despite only gaining 289 yards of offense and getting outgained by -41 net yards. Their 100-yard interception returned for a touchdown was a 14-point turnaround in that game — and the Broncos benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. Head coach Sean Payton is finding success employing the Harbaugh formula (and Bill Belichick, for that matter) of limiting mistakes, relying on their defense, and waiting for their opponents to start doing dumb stuff. The Denver defense ranks fourth in Defensive DVOA. But the offense is a bee-bee gun with rookie Bo Nix under center. To his credit, he has not thrown an interception in his last three games. But he is averaging only 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in his last four games which continues the concern I had about him in the preseason. Nix was praised for his football lQ and the operation of a rhythm-and-timing offense with the Oregon Ducks last season that relied on his great accuracy. That may be another way of saying he lacks a big arm (and neither did Brees when compared to Dan Marino). But 152 of Nix’s passes last year in college were at or behind the line of scrimmage and another 128 pass attempts were no more than five air yards. That kinda sounds like Russell Wilson last year whose average depth of target continued to decline but whose strong-armed moon shots to Courtland Sutton could make the final raw numbers look better by the end of the game. Nix does not have that moonshot in his arsenal which seems to put a hard ceiling on the potential of this offense. Denver ranks 29th in the league this season by averaging only 1.49 Points-Per-Drive. Overall, they are generating only 270.6 total YPG which is resulting in 19.2 PPG. The offense ranks 25th in Offensive DVOA. And while the defensive numbers have been great, they have played the New York Jets, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay in their three wins along with Pittsburgh. The most potent offense they have defended was Seattle in Week One. Under Sean Payton, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games played on grass in the Payton regime.
FINAL TAKE: Harbaugh’s teams in the NFL have covered the point spread in 22 of their 36 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their 18 games on the road when favored by up to six points. His teams have also covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games played in October. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (278). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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10-12-24 |
Boise State v. Hawaii +21 |
|
28-7 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-24 loss at San Diego State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (4-1) has won three games in a row after their loss to Oregon with their 62-30 victory as a 28-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i could be 4-1 with just a couple of breaks. Against both UCLA and then the Aztecs last week, they blew fourth quarter leads in eventual losses by three-point losses. They outgained San Diego State last week by +27 net yards. Quarterback Brayden Schager has seen his wide receivers drop 18 passes which is the most in the FBS. The Rainbow Warriors are a pretty good football team that is being lifted up by a surprisingly stout defense. Hawai’i ranks 12th in the nation Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They rank 14th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. Against FBS opponents, they are allowing just 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which ranks in the top 60 in the nation. They are holding their opponents to just 309.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.0 Points-Per-Game. The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring their opponents by +5.2 PPG and outgaining them by +50.8 net YPG. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games off a win by 17 or more points. The Broncos are lead by running back Ashton Jeanty who is a leading early candidate to win the Heisman Trophy — but they are vulnerable on defense. The Aggies gained 507 yards against them including 371 yards in the air from a 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Georgia Southern scored 45 points against them. They rank 106 in Pass Success Rate Allowed and outside the top 100 in Expected Points Allowed per Opponent Pass Attempt. They rank 92nd in Explosiveness Allowed. They also rank 82nd in Finishing Drives Allowed — and the Rainbow Warriors rank a solid 40th in Finishing Drives. Overall, Boise State is surrendering 402.6 YPG which is resulting in 30.0 PPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road in the first half of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. Led by Jeanty, the Boise State offense is explosive — but he did not play in the second half last week after getting rested in the second half earlier in the year against Portland State. With a big showdown with UNLV on deck, Jeanty is not likely to play if the Broncos are cruising — and that should set up, at worst, a decent back door cover opportunity when considering the state of the Boise State defense.
FINAL TAKE: Under head coach Tommy Chang, the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents with two outright upset victories. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout is with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-24 |
Ole Miss v. LSU +4 |
|
26-29 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). THE SITUATION: LSU (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 42-10 victory against South Alabama as a 21-point favorite back on September 28th. Mississippi (5-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to win at South Carolina by a 27-3 score as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU has the benefit of the extra week to rest and prepare for this game. Head coach Brian Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 23 games with the benefit of the bye week. The Tigers offense is transitioning to a new run blocking scheme which will play to the strengths of freshman Caden Durham who is emerging as the team’s best running back. He rushed for 128 yards on just seven carries against the Jaguars two weeks ago. A more effective rushing attack will only help quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in the passing game. He is completing 70% of his passes and averaging 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he is completing over 50% of his passes of ten or more air yards. As it is, LSU ranks fifth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after winning their previous game at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after a win by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — including Ole Miss’ 55-49 upset win at home as a 2.5-point underdog on September 30th last season. LSU has won 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when attempting to avenge a loss to their opponent. 10* CFB Ole Miss-USC ABC-TV Special with the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-24 |
Florida v. Tennessee -14 |
|
17-23 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-1) lost their first game of the season last Saturday in a 19-14 upset loss at Arkansas as a 14-point favorite. Florida (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 24-13 upset victory against Central Florida as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Much of the shine has been taken off this Tennessee team after their supposed high-powered offense only managed to score 39 combined points in their last two games after putting up 191 combined points in their first three contests. But their last two games have been on the road against two of the better defenses in the nation against Oklahoma and Arkansas last week. Those are tough assignments for any quarterback — but especially for a freshman QB like Nico Iamaleava playing in hostile environments for the first time. Returning home should help the talented rookie where he has completed 32 of 44 passes (72.7%) with four touchdown passes, no interceptions, just one sack, and an 11.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. On the road, he has completed 46 of 73 passes (63.0%) with three touchdown passes but two interceptions and seven sacks along with a 7.7 YPA average. Now Iamaleava gets to throw against a suspect Gators 'defense that ranks 86th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. This is a nice get-right game for the Volunteers who have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home in the first half of the season. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Tennessee was probably a bit overrated after their first three games at home — but this team is different under head coach Josh Heupel because they are finally legit on the defensive side of the football. The Volunteers are one of five teams in the nation holding their opponents to single digits with the 9.4 Points-Per-Game they are allowing. They rank second in the FBS by giving up just 227.4 total Yards-Per-Game. The tempo-free analytics are also quite good for this defense. They lead the nation in Rush Success Rate Allowed. They rank second in Finishing Drives Allowed. They rank sixth in Havoc Rate. They rank 36th in Pass Success Rate Allowed — and while that is still pretty, pretty good, Florida is probably not the team to take advantage of this relative weakness. Florida does rank 20th in Pass Success Rate — but their embattled head coach Billy Napier is now rotating quarterbacks Graham Mertz and D.J. Lagway. Napier looked like he was about to get fired this month before Mississippi State and Central Florida popped up on the schedule. Both of those teams are struggling (especially the Bulldogs) — and that does place a grain or two of salt on their recent passing numbers. I worry about quarterbacks finding their rhythm when they are getting rotated in and out. As it is, the Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. Florida has a good pass rush — but their defense gets burned if the rush fails. The Gators rank outside the top 100 teams in the nation in Opponent Quarterback Rating, Rush Success Rate Allowed, and Opponent Third Down Rate.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home as a favorite. 20* CFB Florida-Tennessee ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-24 |
49ers v. Seahawks +4 |
|
36-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (106) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (105). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. Expect a heavy dose of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet tonight against a Niners defense that has been vulnerable against the run. San Francisco is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense which is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the first half of the season. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road in the first half of the season. And while the Seahawks are generating 264.0 passing Yards-Per-Game, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams averaging 235 or more passing YPG — and they are without safety Talanoa Hufanga to injury who plays a critical role in their secondary.
FINAL TAKE: This is a bounce-back spot for both teams in a crucial divisional game early in the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (106) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-24 |
49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 49 |
Top |
36-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. But the Seahawks also need to run the ball to neutralize the huge advantage the Niners' defense has in this game with Nick Bosa. Seattle is without right tackles Abraham Lucas and George Fant due to injuries which means they will start Stone Forsythe once again at the position. Forsythe is last in the NFL by being responsible for 20 Quarterback Hurries and 25 QB Pressures. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense that is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy — and they will be without cornerback Tariq Woolen tonight. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home at Lumen Field. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Additionally, Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals. And while the 49ers are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play, the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco had a -2 net turnover margin in their loss to the Cardinals — and they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. The 49ers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the number at 49.5 or higher. San Francisco is only scoring 20.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Niners defense continues to play at a high level this season. They are holding their opponents to just 307.8 YPG — and they rank fifth in Defensive DVOA.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total when favored by seven points or less — and the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-24 |
Saints +5.5 v. Chiefs |
|
13-26 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. Defenses caught up a bit — and they are now dealing with several injuries on their offensive line — but this unit is in better shape with Kubiak designing the schemes and calling the plays than they were under previous offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week while outgaining them by +51 net yards. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road after losing on the road in their last game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when getting up to seven points as the underdog. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. Even with Rice healthy the majority of the time, he is averaging only 226 passing Yards-Per-Game which would be a career-low. He has only six touchdown passes — and he has already thrown five interceptions. As a team, the Chiefs have seven turnovers in their four games. They rank just 15th in the NFL by generating 5.7 Yards-Per-Play. They rank third to last in the league in Rushing Explosiveness. Without the injured Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and now Rice, there is simply no juice to this offensive attack — a problem they have had since not resigning Tyreek Hill. Mahomes ranks 25th in the league in adjusted Yards-Per-Attempt. He ranks 32nd of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks by averaging only 5.8 intended air yards per pass attempt. And his 5.4 average depth of target yards per pass attempt ranks last of all starting quarterbacks.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs are 18-31-2 ATS in their last 51 games when favored by more than three points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-24 |
Saints v. Chiefs UNDER 43 |
Top |
13-26 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. But defenses quickly caught up with those schematic changes. And they also lost center Erick McCoy to an injury which was a devastating loss. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top offensive line in the NFL after the first two games of the season. In their last two games, New Orleans has scored only 36 combined points. Quarterback Derek Carr averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first two games with five touchdown passes and just one interception. But in his last two games, he has averaged only 6.1 YPA with just one touchdown pass and two interceptions. His offensive line is really banged up now. That unit is on their third-string center with Shane Lemieux out with an injury — it will be Connor McGovern snapping to Carr tonight. Starting right guard Cesar Ruiz is also out for tonight’s game and starting left guard Lucas Patrick is questionable. Swiss army knife Taysom Hill is also out for tonight’s game with an injury. Now Carr faces Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is very familiar with him from preparing to play against him for years when he played for the Raiders. Spags has coached against Carr in 17 games — his defenses have sacked him 41 times while forcing 21 turnovers against him. This Kubiak offense for the Saints is leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara and the running game. New Orleans leads the NFL by averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game — and they are second-to-last in the league by averaging only 25.3 passing attempts per game. Now the Saints face the stout Kansas City run defense that ranks second in DVOA Run Defense using the metrics of the Football Outsiders and third in the NFL with opposing rushers averaging just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. This commitment to rushing is also keeping the opposing offense off the field for almost 33 minutes per game. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass (as opposed to the field turf at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). They have also played 7 of the 10 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. But the Chiefs’ defense remains outstanding as they are only allowing 326.8 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after beating an AFC West rival. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Kansas City has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams who are averring 5.65 or more YPP. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-24 |
Cowboys v. Steelers UNDER 43.5 |
|
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (474) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) evened their record at 2-2 with a 20-15 victory in New York against the Giants as a 5-point favorite last Thursday. Pittsburgh (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 upset loss at Indianapolis last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys only generated 293 yards of offense in their win against the Giants last week. Dallas cannot run the ball — and it is impacted everything they do. They are generating just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 75.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They ranked 14th in the NFL last season by averaging 112.9 rushing YPG. This is putting the onus on quarterback Dan Prescott to do more with his arm — but he has been much more effective when playing at home at AT&T Stadium. Last season, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes at home with 20 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while averaging 308.8 passing YPG and generating a 120.0 Quarterback Rating in eight regular season games at home. But in his nine games on the road, his completion percentage dropped to 65.9% while averaging only 227.3 passing YPG with 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions and generating a 92.4 QBR. On the road this season, the Cowboys are only averaging 279.0 YPG — and now wide receiver Brandin Cooks is injured reserve. Dallas stays on the road for the second straight week — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road after playing on the road the previous week. They have also played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Pittsburgh played their best game on offense in a losing effort last week. They are generating only 317.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 18.8 PPG. But they continue to play great defense under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are holding their opponents to just 261.8 total YPG which is resulting in just 13.3 PPG. The Steelers return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (474) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-24 |
Cowboys v. Steelers -2.5 |
Top |
20-17 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 upset loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. Dallas (2-2) evened their record at 2-2 with a 20-15 victory in New York against the Giants as a 5-point favorite last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh fell behind early and were staring at a 17-0 deficit early in the second quarter before almost coming all the way back to steal that game. The Steelers did outgain the Colts by +46 net yards with their offense generating 404 yards. Justin Fields may have played his game at quarterback for both the Steelers and in his career by completing 22 of 34 passes for 312 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He added another 55 rushing yards and scored twice his legs. Credit goes to offensive coordinator Arthur Smith who has Fields making quicker decisions in the passing game. The loss presents head coach Mike Tomlin a good opportunity to have an attentive audience this week — and that is something that he typically takes successful advantage. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have cocked the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home after a straight-up loss. They return home to play for just the second time all season after three of their first four games were on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when the Total is listed in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the NFC. Dallas beat the Giants despite losing the first down battle and getting outgained by -10 net yards. The Cowboys only generated 293 yards of offense in that game. Dallas cannot run the ball — and it is impacted everything they do. They are generating just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 75.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They ranked 14th in the NFL last season by averaging 112.9 rushing YPG. This is putting the onus on quarterback Dan Prescott to do more with his arm — but he has been much more effective when playing at home at AT&T Stadium. Last season, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes at home with 20 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while averaging 308.8 passing YPG and generating a 120.0 Quarterback Rating in eight regular season games at home. But in his nine games on the road, his completion percentage dropped to 65.9% while averaging only 227.3 passing YPG with 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions and generating a 92.4 QBR. Prescott has an 8-8 record straight-up in his last 16 games on the road — and he has an 8-13 record in his last 21 games against teams from the AFC. On the road this season, the Cowboys are only averaging 279.0 YPG. And then there is the matter of the declining Dallas defense. Everything seemed great after their opening week win against Cleveland. But since that game, the Cowboys are allowing 29.0 PPG (29th in the NFL), 397.0 YPG (last), 6.6 Yards-Per-Play (last), and have only registered 2.0. sacks. That unit will not have its best player, Micah Parsons, who is out with an ankle injury. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks is injured reserve. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas is getting outscored by -1.7 PPG and getting outgained by -24.5 net YPG this season. On the other hand, the Steelers are outscoring their opponents by +5.5 PPG and outgaining their opponents by +56.0 net YPG. Furthermore, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-24 |
Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers |
Top |
24-23 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (467) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (468). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-3) has lost two games in a row after their 42-14 upset loss against Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 30-13 victory at home against New England as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have made several teams look bad early on in this season. Arizona had lost one-possession games at Buffalo and against Detroit prior to that loss — and those were both teams that won playoff games last season. Quarterback Kyler Murray was missing tight end Trey McBride who was in the concussion protocol last week. McBride cleared the protocol this week and was a full participant in practice — but he did pop up on the injury report yesterday with a rib injury. He is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last night that he is expected to play. McBride emerged as a favorite target for Murray in the second half of last season. The Cardinals offense had been humming this season before stalling without McBride last week. The second-year pro had 14 catches from 21 targets in his first three games. Running back James Conner has been spectacular leading a ground game that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 153.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Arizona is scoring touchdowns on 72.7% of their drives inside the red zone which ranks tied for fourth in the league. They have generated 29 big plays (rushing plays of 10 or more yards or pass plays of 20 or more yards) which is the sixth most in the league. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. And while Arizona is generating 6.0 Yards-Per-Play, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP. The Niners are still banged up dealing with several injuries. Running back Christian McCaffrey is still out while tight end George Kittle and linebacker Fred Warner are questionable and may be limited if they do play. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after the first month of the season. And in their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: With only one win on the season, this is a critical game for the Cardinals — especially against an NFC West rival that embarrassed them by 16 and 19 points last season. Scouting this team had to be one of the highest priorities for head coach Jonathan Gannon in the offseason — and Arizona has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 trips to San Francisco to play the Niners. Expect a close game. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (467) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-24 |
Jets v. Vikings -2 |
|
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (452) minus the points versus the New York Jets (451). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after their 31-29 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-2) looks to rebound from their 10-9 loss at home to Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Vikings are the technical home team with this game being played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The situation says to take the Jets after their ugly loss against the Broncos where they generated only 248 yards of offense. But I am skeptical this team can just flip the switch. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and I see that as a failure of head coach Robert Saleh to refocus his team. He continues to bicker with Aaron Rodgers in the media — this time it was about Rodgers’ use of cadence which contributed to several false start penalties. Rodgers also got banged up in that game — he was sacked five times and was hit another 14 times. He has a sore knee and a hamstring injury but will try to play through those injuries. Now he faces a Vikings defense that has already resisted 16 sacks and hit the quarterback another 31 times. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams from the NFC. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after pulling off an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Weeks Five through Nine under head coach Kevin O’Connell — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after the first month of the season under Saleh. 8* NFL NY Jets-Minnesota London Calling Special with the Minnesota Vikings (452) minus the points versus the New York Jets (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-24 |
Texas Tech v. Arizona UNDER 64 |
Top |
28-22 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-41 victory against Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (3-1) comes off a 23-10 upset victory at Utah as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is easy to see why many bettors expect this game to be a shootout — but the deeper analytics suggest these respective offenses are not quite as explosive as some of their final scores indicate. The Red Raiders may be scoring 41.6 Points-Per-Game — but they rank just 42nd in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 63rd in Passing Success Rate. In their only game away from home this season, they scored just 16 points at Washington State. One of their touchdowns last week against the Bearcats came from a 51-yard interception return. Texas Tech has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. They play their second game on the road where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when getting 3.5 to 10 points as an underdog. Arizona only gained 358 yards last week in their victory against the Utes. They have scored no more than 23 points in three of their four contests this season. They rank 102nd in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Pass Success Rate. The Wildcats are settling for too many field goal attempts as they rank 91st in the FBS in Finishing Drives. But their defense has been solid as they are holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 4 straight home games Under the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats are playing their first season under new head coach Brent Brennan who took over for Jedd Fisch who left to take the Washington job. Brennan’s teams going back to his previous tenure at San Jose State have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and his teams have played 5 straight Unders when playing at home with the Total set in that 63.5-70 point range. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-24 |
Miami-FL v. California +10.5 |
|
39-38 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). THE SITUATION: California (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 14-9 loss at Florida State as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 21st. Miami (5-0) remained unbeaten with their 38-34 win against Virginia Tech as a 17.5-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal was dealing with a bevy of injuries to begin the season — but they still upset Auburn on the road despite those issues. They are getting healthier now coming off the bye week. As it is, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games off a loss on the road to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after playing on the road in their last game. Cal has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games when getting 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as a double-digit underdog under head coach Justin Wilcox. Miami trailed by a 34-24 score in the fourth quarter to the Hokies before rallying to win that game with a final touchdown with less than two minutes in the game. That Virginia Tech team entered the week with a losing record. The Hurricanes' strength of schedule does not look nearly as formidable from the view of the rearview mirror. Florida is a mess. South Florida has a losing record. Florida A&M and Ball State were easy ones. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win against an ACC rival. Fast starts are not uncommon for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after the first month of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games between Week Five and Week Nine of the season. Furthermore, head coach Mario Cristobal’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games played in October.
FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. And while the Hurricanes are outscoring their opponents by +35.4 Points-Per-Game, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-24 |
Michigan State v. Oregon UNDER 53.5 |
|
10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (311) and the Oregon Ducks (312). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 38-7 loss at home against Ohio State as a 23.5-point underdog last Saturday. Oregon (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-13 win at UCLA as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans had a difficult assignment in attempting to slow down the Buckeyes’ explosive offense last week. Sparty has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. And while they suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Despite the 31-point loss, this team is moving in the right direction once again under first-year head coach Jonathan Smith — and it starts on the defensive side of the football. The slide this program has taken from its peak seasons under head coach Mark Dantonio has been on defense. Sparty was a top-ten statistical defense in 2017 and 2018 while ranking tied for 18th in YPG Allowed in 2019 in Dantonio’s last season. Yet despite previous head coach Mel Tucker being a Nick Sagan protege who had defensive coordinating experience in the NFL and at Georgia, the defense collapsed in his tenure at East Lansing. Michigan State ranked 54th in total defense in his first season with the team before falling to 111th and 100th in his final two full seasons with the team. Only seven of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps on defense returned from last season. Smith brought in 15 transfers to bolster that side of the ball. The back seven should be capable enough, but the defensive line was the biggest question mark heading into the season. That group has held up as Michigan State ranks 18th in Opponent Rush Success Rate and 30th in Opponent Line Yards. They also rank 20th in Opponent Finishing Drives. Outside of Ohio State last week, the Spartans have not allowed more than 24 points. But the offense has struggled after failing to score more than 19 points in three of their four games against FBS opponents. These struggles are not a surprise as the offensive line had only two returning starters and was joined by just three transfers in the offseason. The unit has a mere 31 starts at the FBS level to start the season. The Spartans rank 121st in Line Yards and 81st in Rushing Success Rate. Smith did bring former four-star dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles with him from Oregon State — but he takes over an offense that ranked 128th and 125th in the nation by scoring 15.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 289.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Chiles has struggled as Pro Football Focus's 67.7 grade for his performance so far this season indicates. He has 14 turnover-worthy plays already this year. Michigan State has played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Oregon flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Bruins to just 172 yards of offense in their 21-point victory. UCLA’s only touchdown came from a 96-yard interception return. The Ducks have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. The defense has held three of their four opponents to 14 or fewer points so far this season. That unit made a big leap in head coach Dan Lanning’s second year with the program last season by ranking ninth in the FBS by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG and ranking 22nd by limiting these teams to 318.4 YPG. The former Georgia defensive coordinator’s defense allowed -10.9 fewer PPG and -61.2 YPG than in his second season as head coach. The biggest question is on the defensive line with that unit replacing four of the top five players from last season. Lanning brought in two transfers to bolster the depth, but it will be up to some of the 11 blue-chippers he has recruited in the last two seasons to step up and play key roles. On paper, the talent is there — and so far, that group is meeting the challenge. Oregon ranks 26th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate. They also rank fourth in Havoc Rate. The Ducks rank 12 in Opponent Pass Success Rate — so it will be difficult for Chiles to move the the ball with his arm. And while the Oregon offense remains explosive with Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, their 36.0 PPG scoring average and 455.3 total YPG mark are both -8.2 PPG and -76.1 YPG below last season’s numbers with Bo Nix running the offense. The Spartans are giving up only 119.0 rushing YPG — and the Ducks have played 5 straight Unders against teams not allowing more than 120 rushing YPG. Oregon has also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 PPG — and Michigan State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Spartans have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. 10* CFB Michigan State-Oregon Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (311) and the Oregon Ducks (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-24 |
Bucs v. Falcons UNDER 44 |
|
30-36 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. The Buccaneers' offense is only generating 319.0 YPG — and they are without right tackle Luke Goedeke to injury and left tackle Tristan Wirfs was limited in practice this week. As it is, the Tampa Bay rushing attack ranks 24th in DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics — and their running backs are getting hit behind the line of scrimmage at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total in that 42.5-49 point range. They have played 6 straight Unders after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in October. Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in October.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-24 |
Bucs +2.5 v. Falcons |
|
30-36 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored by up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games between Weeks Five and Nine. The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after a straight-up victory. Now after completing a two-game home stand, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games against fellow NFC rivals.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-24 |
Seahawks +4.5 v. Lions |
|
29-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (291) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road. To compound their challenge tonight, they will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. I am not terribly surprised that this team has taken a step back. For a franchise to win their first playoff game since 1991 and then just miss a shot at the Super Bowl when head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness backfired (another topic altogether), the foundation may not be nearly as firm now that linebacker Alex Anzalone is declaring this season as “Super Bowl or bust” when this is the first time in a very long time where they will be the chased rather than an afterthought. If things begin to unravel from more injuries (exposing depth problems), more game management mishaps from the biting knees guy to failures to solve the WR2, DE2, or cornerback issues (two rookies and Davis III who has been shaky since winning the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers), and just bad luck courtesy of the Regression Gods, then the wheels could fall off rather quickly. It would not be the first time flash in the pans bottom in this league. And now the injuries are beginning to mount. Besides the Ragnow situation, the Lions will be without defensive end Marcus Davenport, linebacker Derrick Barnes, and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu who are all on the injured list. To make matters worse, second-year safety Brian Branch caught an illness over the weekend and is doubtful to play tonight. Seattle contained the Dolphins offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spreads in 5 of their last 6 road games against NFC rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (291) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-24 |
Seahawks v. Lions UNDER 47 |
Top |
29-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks contained the Dolphins' offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Detroit will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top-five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. On the other hand, the Lions have improved to 11th in Defensive DVOA so far this season. Detroit played a ton of Overs last year — but they have now played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season as the trends seems to have turned against market expectations.
FINAL TAKE: A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald-operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 Prime Time games Under the Total with Goff as their starting quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-24 |
Bills v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 |
|
10-35 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the Baltimore Ravens (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-0) remains undefeated after their 47-10 victory against Jacksonville as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Baltimore (1-2) won their opening game of the season last week in a 28-25 victory at Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has made a strong statement against those pundits who thought they would be taking a step back this season after moving on from several players including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. They held the Jaguars to only 239 yards in their victory on Monday — and they are only giving up 286.7 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.0 Points-Per-Game for their opponents. But quarterback Josh Allen has struggled against the Ravens by completing only 52% of his passes against them in four games while covering only 188 passing YPG and posted a Passer Rating of 72 in those contests. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Ravens return home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games at home Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 12 of their last 17 games in the first half of the season Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the Baltimore Ravens (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-24 |
Bills v. Ravens -2 |
Top |
10-35 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (288) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (287). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-2) won their opening game of the season last week in a 28-25 victory at Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (3-0) remains undefeated after their 47-10 victory against Jacksonville as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore raced out to a 21-6 halftime lead before holding on for the victory against the Cowboys. They generated 456 yards of offense while controlling the time of possession by being on offense for 34:45 minutes of that game. While the 1-2 record so far is a disappointment, the offense has continued to develop in the second year under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio last season, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. So far this season, he is completing 65.6% of his passes — and he is generating 318 total Yards-Per-Game between his arm and his legs. The Baltimore offense ranked third last season in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. They were also seventh with 132 Explosive Plays. So far this season, they lead the NFL by generating 430.3 YPG coming from 6.7 Yards-Per-Play which also leads the league. The Ravens return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Bills are scoring 37.3 PPG, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams scoring 24 or more PPG. Buffalo has made a strong statement against those pundits who thought they would be taking a step back this season after moving on from several players including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. I was encouraged by those moves and am not surprised by their start. But this is a spot to fade them in this difficult assignment at Baltimore. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three or more games in a row. I did worry about a defense entering the season that was replacing their All-Pro safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde along with linebacker Leonard Floyd who had 10.5 sacks last year. Their run defense is a concern as they are surrendering 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and now they face the Ravens’ Derrick Henry who was acquired for games like this. The former Tennessee running back is generating 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry and has already reached the end zone four times. The Bills are dealing with injuries with two defensive starters, middle linebacker Terrel Bernard and nickelback Taron Johnson, out for this game. And quarterback Josh Allen has struggled against the Ravens by completing only 52% of his passes against them in four games while covering only 188 passing YPG and posted a Passer Rating of 72 in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +21.3 net PPG, they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (288) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-24 |
Vikings v. Packers -2.5 |
Top |
31-29 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (270) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (269). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 30-14 upset win at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 34-7 upset win at home against Houston as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay expects to get Jordan Love back this afternoon for this game — he might have been able to play last week if the challenge was greater than the struggling Titans. Love is a significant upgrade over Malik Willis under center — but the former Tennessee quarterback’s play after getting acquired by the Packers in a trade was a pleasant surprise as he led the team to two victories. One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” With even Willis thriving in his system, LaFleur deserves a tremendous amount of credit. With Willis — and now again with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, LaFleur has been fully vindicated in the Rodgers divorce — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. So far this season, Green Bay leads the NFL with seven interceptions. They held the Titans last week to just 237 yards of offense while helping them secure a +2 net turnover margin. Their momentum should carry over into this game. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games. Minnesota is one of the surprises of the league as one of the remaining undefeated teams — and they get tight end Tyler Hockensen back for this game. I’m not terribly surprised that the Vikings have started strong — I think that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah wisely did not take the bait from that 13-4 campaign two years ago to conclude that his team was close and they should pay big new contracts to quarterback Kirk Cousins and running back Dalvin Cook. But this looks like the game where the Vikings come back to earth and rather unbeaten season ends. Sam Arnold is playing efficient football under center — but Minnesota only gained 274 total yards of offense last week and they were outgained by -22 net yards. Now this team plays just their second game away from home after a relatively easy one away from home in the Meadowlands against the New York Giants. I also appreciate defensive coordinator Brian Flores who does a great job in disguising and misdirecting his schemes — and he is great at tailoring his game plans to the talent of his players. But LaFleur is certainly aware of the tactics that expose his schemes. Pre-snap motion can often reveal defensive coverages — and the Packers’ success against the Vikings on December 31st last year may be telling as Love completed 24 of 33 passes for 256 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. All the distinct weapons at Love’s disposal come in handy against Flores’ schemes. Green Bay is generating 204.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against fellow NFC North rivals.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is outscoring their opponents by +18.3 Points-Per-Game — but the Packers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (270) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-24 |
Georgia -1 v. Alabama |
|
34-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (201) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (202). THE SITUATION: Georgia (3-0) has had two weeks off to recover and prepare for this showdown after their 13-12 win at Kentucky as a 21.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago. Alabama (3-0) comes off their bye week as well after a 42-10 win at Wisconsin as a 14-point favorite on September 14th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia struggled on the road against the Wildcats two weeks ago — but I think that speaks to their early season injuries and the challenge of playing on the road in the SEC. Remember that the most impressive victory either of these teams has registered this season was the Bulldogs’ 34-3 victory against Clemson who have since dominated their opponents. While Georgia is not at full strength, they are getting healthier — and the headline is their star defensive tackle Warren Brinson is expected to return to action after playing only three snaps against Clemson this season. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their 19 games with two or more weeks to prepare under head coach Kirby Smart. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Crimson Tide dominated Wisconsin on the road -- and they benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that contest. But first-year head coach Kalen DeBour’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. I am not giving DeBour an immediate benefit of the doubt when it comes to continuing the legacy of Nick Saban with this program. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in Weeks Five through Nine. Alabama remains very talented — although DeBour had to lean on the transfer portal, so the issue of their new culture remains a question. This ain’t Saban’s team anymore. This Crimson Tide team has issues on the offensive line and at cornerback.
FINAL TAKE: This game is crucial for the Bulldogs after their 27-24 upset loss as a 5.5-point favorite to Saban’s Alabama team in the SEC Championship Game cost them the opportunity to compete in the College Football Playoff. The revenge angle is huge — and Smart’s teams at Georgia have covered the point spread in 31 of their 47 games against ranked opponents including covering the point spread in 25 of those 37 games when favored. Smart’s coaching staff and culture are proven in games like this — and while the Crimson Tide may want it, the Bulldogs need it. 10* CFB Georgia-Alabama ABC-TV Special with the Georgia Bulldogs (201) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-24 |
BYU v. Baylor -3 |
Top |
34-28 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). THE SITUATION: Baylor (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 38-31 loss at Colorado in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (4-0) remained unbeaten after their 38-9 upset win at home against Kansas State as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has been fortunate to remain unscathed this season — but this is the spot where they should be exposed by an angry Baylor team. BYU opened their season with an easy one against Southern Illinois from the FCS. They then played on the road against an SMU team that is already on their second quarterback and who were the beneficiaries of five TCU giveaways in their upset victory against them before disposing of one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far in a Wyoming team struggling to move on in the post-Craig Bohl era. And then last week, the Cougars survived getting outgained by a 367 to 241 margin in yardage to stun the Wildcats. Some fluky plays changed the tenor of that game. Trailing by a 6-3 score, BYU scooped up a Kansas State fumble to score a 30-yard defensive touchdown with 1:08 left in the half. They immediately were then given a short field by the Wildcats and scored another touchdown with 0:29 left to take a 17-6 lead. They then scored on a 90-yard punt return for a touchdown early in the third quarter to take control of the game with a 24-6 lead. If that was not enough, the Cougars were gifted another 50 yards on eight Kansas State penalties. I am not letting a deceiving final score last week sway me from my preseason thoughts on this team. After playing only five Power-Five conference opponents in 2022, I was concerned about how the Cougars would handle their move to the Big 12 with ten Power-Five opponents on their schedule going into last season. BYU started fast with a 5-2 record — but their three upset victories against Arkansas, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech were in games where they got outgained in yardage. The Regression Gods made their presence felt in the second half of the season with the Cougars surrendering 38 Points-Per-Game in their final five games — all losses — to finish the season with a 5-7 record. This team ran out of steam lacking the depth of their conference rivals. They were outgained by -141 Yards-Per-Game against Big 12 opponents. BYU ranked 118th in the FBS by generating only 309.8 YPG — and they ranked 106th by giving up 417.7 YPG. Head coach Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters in his ninth year with the program. There are reasons for optimism with 13 of the players on defense who logged in at least 100 snaps including seven who were freshman or sophomore last year. But line play is the final step that this program needs to improve to become more competitive against the (now) Power Four programs. Their offensive line was a weak link last season prompting Sitake to hire T.J. Woods from Georgia Southern to coach that unit. Junior college transfers join two returning starters on the defensive line — but they only have one player per 300 pounds in that group. The Cougars ranked 109th by allowing 177.7 rushing YPG — and their 11 sacks were the fewest in the country. BYU should be better this season — but the gap was very wide between them and the best teams in the Big 12. Now they play their second traditional Power Five/Four program in the Bears who will challenge them on both lines of scrimmage. As it is, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. And while they enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when playing during those weeks. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Junior quarterback Jake Retzlaff has thrown nine touchdown passes with only three interceptions — but those numbers look much better than his only five “big time” throws and six turnover-worthy plays. Now he faces his toughest defense this season with this Baylor team that is holding their opponents to just 283.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 16.8 Points-Per-Game. This Bears defense has significantly improved with head coach Dave Aranda taking over the play-calling duties. They rank 11th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Baylor was a prime candidate to rebound from their 3-9 campaign last season with 19 returning starters from that very young team. They lost a heartbreaker last week on the road against the Buffaloes after they missed a late game-sealing field goal which created the opportunity for quarterback Shadeur Sanders to complete a 43-yard Hail Mary pass to force overtime on the final play in regulation. A botched fumble on the one-yard line in overtime led to them losing the game. If there was a silver lining, it was the play of junior quarterback Sawyer Robertson who completed 11 of 21 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns while adding another touchdown and 82 yards on the ground. The former Mississippi State transfer is a better fit to execute the quick passing game Baylor wants to deploy than previous starter Dequan Finn who may lack the requisite passing skills after transferring from Toledo. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 37 or more points. And in their last 16 games at home as the favorite, they have covered the point spread in 10 of those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-24 |
Cowboys v. Giants +5.5 |
|
20-15 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: New York (1-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 21-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 28-25 loss at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: My initial reaction was breaking this game down was to suspect it was a “get-right” game for the Cowboys after dropping two games in a row. Now they face a New York team that they have beaten in 12 of their last 13 contests — including two romps last year by 49-17 and 40-0 scores. And then I realized that my sentiment was exactly the same as most bettors in this spot — so I conducted a major rethink. Upon closer analysis, Dallas traveling to New York to face a team that usually dominates may be the worst thing for this franchise that may be experiencing an existential crisis. Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have mastered the art of the Flat Track Bully. They have gone 12-5 in the regular season for three straight seasons. Last year, they outscored their opponents by +11.4 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +71.9 net Yards-Per-Game. Yet they have lost six of their nine games in the postseason in the last 11 seasons after a humiliating 48-32 loss at home to Green Bay in the NFC Wildcard round that seemed to serve as an indictment for every member of the organization. Yet rather than cleaning house, owner/president/general manager/podcaster Jerry Jones translated his initial “all-in” mantra to only signing three free agents while losing five starters to the market. After giving up 432 yards of offense and 44 points two weeks ago in New Orleans in a 25-point loss, the Cowboys surrendered 456 total yards and another 28 points last week against the Ravens. Now, on a short week, the general expectation that they will simply flip the switch? The concerns about the offense are troubling. Dallas does not have a reliable lead running back with Rico Dowdle suddenly their main rusher. They brought back an over-the-hill Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason — but his strengths are in pass blocking and short-yardage at this stage of his career. Change-of-pace back Deuce Vaughn has not developed. The Cowboys are third to the bottom in the league by both rushing for only 73.7 Yards-Per-Game and averaging just 20.7 rush attempts per game. Dowdle is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The offensive line is no longer the strength for this team, which it once was after losing two starters in the offseason. Rookie Tyler Guyton has replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle — but he has already allowed three pressures in his first three games in the NFL. This spells trouble for quarterback Dak Prescott who already tends to play better at home. Perhaps it is the rhythm he finds with his “here we go” cadence. Last year in eight regular season games at home, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes while averaging 308.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions helped him register a 120.0 Quarterback Rating. But in his nine starts on the road last regular season, he only completed 65.4% of his passes while averaging 65.4% of his passes — and he had 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions while posting a 92.4 QBR. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road after playing their previous game at home. New York flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Browns to 217 total yards. The Giants defense is much better this season after acquiring defensive end Brian Burns from Carolina in the offseason. He already has 15 pressures which ranks ninth in the NFL. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games after a straight-up win on the road. And after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after playing their last two games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have been reliable underdogs under head coach Brian Daboll — they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5. points while only losing those games, straight-up, by -1.0 Points-Per-Game. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-24 |
Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45 |
Top |
20-15 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 28-25 loss at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 21-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 432 yards of offense and 44 points two weeks ago in New Orleans, the Cowboys surrendered 456 total yards and another 28 points last week against the Ravens. First-year defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer needs to get this defense on the same page after the early reviews were great when they held Cleveland to just 230 yards and 17 points in their opener. Getting an appearance from the Regression Gods regarding their Red Zone defense will help immensely. Dallas’ opponents have scored touchdowns on 90% of their trips inside their 20-yard line this season. The NFL average tends to be in the 55% range regarding touchdown proficiency once in the Red Zone. The Browns had the worst Red Zone defense last season with opponents scoring touchdowns in 71% of their trips inside the Cowboys’ 20-yard line — so that 90% clip is, thankfully for Dallas fans, unsustainable. Dallas ranked fifth in the league by only giving up 299.7 total Yards-Per-Game last season — and they ranked fifth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Facing the new Saints offense that is leaning heavily into pre-snap motion and play-action passes in Week Two before the always difficult task for NFC teams in playing Lamar Jackson who presents such a unique threat with his legs probably explains the slow start on that side of the ball. As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The concerns about the offense are more troubling. Dallas does not have a reliable lead running back with Rico Dowdle suddenly their main rusher. They brought back an over-the-hill Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason — but his strengths are in pass blocking and short-yardage at this stage of his career. Change-of-pace back Deuce Vaughn has not developed. The Cowboys are third to the bottom in the league by both rushing for only 73.7 Yards-Per-Game and averaging just 20.7 rush attempts per game. Dowdle is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The offensive line is no longer the strength of this team, which it once was after losing two starters in the offseason. Rookie Tyler Guyton has replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle — but he has already allowed three pressures in his first three games in the NFL. This spells trouble for quarterback Dak Prescott who already tends to play better at home. Perhaps it is the rhythm he finds with his “here we go” cadence. Last year in eight regular season games at home, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes while averaging 308.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions helped him register a 120.0 Quarterback Rating. But in his nine starts on the road last regular season, he only completed 65.4% of his passes while averaging 65.4% of his passes — and he had 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions while posting a 92.4 QBR. New York flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Browns to 217 total yards. The Giants' defense is much better this season after acquiring defensive end Brian Burns from Carolina in the offseason. He already has 15 pressures which ranks ninth in the NFL. New York has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Quarterback Daniel Jones posted a Passer Rating of 110 last week — but let’s not read too much into that since Pro Football Focus assigned him the third worst grade last week ahead of just Anthony Richardson and Skylar Thompson. Jones is another QB with disparate home-road splits — but Jones tends to play better away from the New York fans at MetLife Stadium. In his career 32 games on the road, Jones has a 91.2 QBR while completing 64.4% of his passes and averaging 213.2 passing YPG — and he has 39 touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions. But in his 31 career games at home, his QBR drops to 78.6 with a 63.6% completion percentage and a 202.9 passing YPG mark — and he has thrown 27 touchdown passes while throwing 28 picks.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-24 |
Commanders +8.5 v. Bengals |
|
38-33 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (479) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 after their 21-18 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 loss at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: I am not terribly surprised that the Bengals have started slow this season. At first glance when I conducted my offseason deep dive on the team, I wanted to consider them on the short list of teams to overtake Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was slowed by a calf injury suffered early in last year’s training camp that helps explain Cincinnati’s 1-3 start where they generated only 12.3 Points-Per-Game. Burrow only completed 576% of his passes for 728 yards during that stretch. But after recovering, he completed 72.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in his next seven games before suffering his season-ending wrist injury. I remained concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while running back Joe Mixon was probably past his prime, did the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? Then there was the defense that ranked 31st in the league by allowing 374.6 Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, losing safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell took away too much leadership (and play-calling) for an inexperienced defensive backfield that was starting rookies or second-year players by the end of the season. Covering for their mistakes could explain the down seasons for linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. After committing only 76 missed tackles in 2022-23, the Bengals missed 124 tackles last year, the second-highest jump in the NFL. And while the Bengals faced 11 of 17 teams that ranked in the top 12 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, they still got outscored by 1.1 PPG and outgained by -55.7 net YPG. Can they count on a +10 net turnover margin again? Will team cohesion take a hit with wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins along with defensive end Trey Hendrickson all wanting to renegotiate their contract for new deals? If the young defensive players take the next step, then Cincinnati can certainly compete for a Super Bowl — assuming Burrow fully recovers. I concluded my thoughts on this team by writing: “But the seeds are certainly in place for why this team once again sputters.” Two games into the season with some hindsight, this team does appear to be not on the same page. The chemistry appears off. Granted, Tee Higgins being out with an injury in the first two games has not helped — and they get him back tonight. But I don’t think his return simply allows this offense to flip the switch. It looks like Burrow missed wide receiver Tyler Boyd who played an important role in their three-headed monster at wide receiver in his career at Cincinnati. The ground game has not been the same without Mixon. As it is, the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the opening month of the season. The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. After the team traded away defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, the writing was on the wall and the remaining players were listless in some blowout losses. So the Washington defense ranking last by allowing 30.5 Points-Per-Game, 388.9 total Yards-Per-Game, and 262.2 Passing YPG should probably be taken with a grain of salt. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator — and now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line. Daniels is a legitimate dual-threat QB who could jumpstart this offense like C.J. Stroud last year. In his first two games in the NFL, he is completing 75% of his passes — and, perhaps more impressively, he has completions to eight different receivers. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team. They could not find the end zone last week — and if Malik Nabors simply holds on to a fourth down pass from Daniel Jones, the Giants may have pulled the upset (and we cover the darn spread in that) — but they did outgain New York by +121 net yards while generating 425 yards of offense. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are desperate to not drop to 0-3 — but their winning the game is one thing, them covering the point spread is quite another. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points under head coach Zac Taylor. Look for the Commanders to keep this one closer than expected. 10* NFL Washington-Cincinnati ABC-TV Special with the Washington Commanders (479) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-24 |
Commanders v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 |
|
38-33 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 after their 21-18 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 loss at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders held the Giants to just 304 yards of offense last week in their three-point victory. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn seems to have already made his presence known as the new head coach for this team. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team. But the offense could not find the end zone last week as they settled for seven field goals to pull out that game. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has not thrown a touchdown pass yet. The Commanders have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 3 of their 4 games on the road Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and his teams as a head coach have played 4 of their 6 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Cincinnati only gained 320 yards last week against the Chiefs after only generating 224 yards in their opening game against New England. Granted, Tee Higgins being out with an injury in the first two games has not helped — and they get him back tonight. But I don’t think his return simply allows this offense to flip the switch. It looks like Burrow missed wide receiver Tyler Boyd who played an important role in their three-headed monster at wide receiver in his career at Cincinnati. The ground game has not been the same without running back Joe Mixon. I remained concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? The Bengals have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing in September. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-24 |
Jaguars +6 v. Bills |
Top |
10-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (477) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (478). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 18-13 upset loss at home to Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 31-10 upset loss at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on September 12th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville will be playing with full desperation tonight to do everything they can to avoid starting the season at 0-3 which then places their chances of making the playoffs at very low odds according to the historical numbers. There were seven teams with 0-2 records facing that prospect yesterday. Six of those seven teams won their games — Indianapolis as a home favorite were the only team to fall to 0-3. Denver, the New York Giants, Carolina, Baltimore, and the Los Angeles Rams all pulled off upsets wins to avoid going 0-3 — and all but the Rams were playing on the road (and there were probably more San Francisco fans at SoFi Stadium yesterday). I’ll confess that I am not bullish on this Jaguars team this season. In my preseason deep dive on them, I concluded that general manager Trent Baalke has been lazy in his roster construction — seven of his nine draft picks last April were from the SEC and he has only drafted one non-Power Five conference player in his 22 selections in the last two seasons. I have questions about quarterback Trevor Lawrence who led the NFL with 21 turnovers while struggling in the second half of the season. So far this year, he is completing only 51% of his passes. But there are silver linings for tonight’s game. Lawrence has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception in his NFL career when playing in prime-time. While his accuracy numbers are down, the Jaguars offense is generating big plays — they lead the league with 12 plays that have churned out 20 or more yards from scrimmage. Lawrence played the second half of last season gutting through several injuries — so not being close to full strength could explain his second-half struggles last season. Jacksonville has lost to two playoff teams to start the season. Their 20-17 loss at Miami was a nail-biter that they could have pulled out. They had a 17-7 lead at halftime and a 17-14 lead with less than five minutes to go in the fourth quarter before surrendering two late field goals to blow that game. Against the Browns last week, they outgained Cleveland by 323 to 297 margin in yards. They were down 16-3 before rallying to make it 16-13 midway through the fourth quarterback. Maybe the story of this team is that they will find ways to lose games all season — but taking them as an underdog may be profitable. I expect them to play their best game of the season tonight. They did rank 10th in total DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders last season. Defensive end Travon Walker is developing into a force, even if the team should have drafted Adrian Hutchinson as the number one pick in the draft three years ago. Jacksonville has been reliable on the road by covering the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against fellow AFC rivals. Regarding Buffalo, I like this team and am intrigued by their commitment to running the football more than when Ken Dorsey was their offensive coordinator. We were on the Bills last week against the Dolphins — and they have now won nine of their 11 games with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. For the record, they were helped by a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they were outgained by -104 net yards. This may be a bit of a letdown spot for them tonight. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a win against an AFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point. The Bills defense will be missing two starters on defense tonight with nickleback Taron Johnson and middle linebacker Terrel Bernard both dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: We bet numbers rather than teams — and I like the number with the Jaguars tonight given the conundrum they now find themselves under. Jacksonville usually plays their best football early in the year as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road in the first half of the season. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (477) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-22-24 |
Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 46.5 |
|
22-17 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 win against Cincinnati as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) won their first game of the season on Monday with their 22-21 upset win at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs' offense has yet to find midseason form as they only gained 286 yards from 19 first downs last week against the Bengals. But Patrick Mahomes has gotten very comfortable playing in lower-scoring games given the strength of the Kansas City defense. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. And while a revenge-motivated Ravens team led by Lamar Jackson moved the ball against them two weeks ago, they held the Bengals to just 320 total yards last week. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. It took some spectacular game mismanagement from Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni to even give the Falcons the opportunity to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. But after Sirianni bypassed running the ball on third down to continue to burn time off the clock and set up a fourth down Push-Tush with Jalen Hurts icing the game with a first down, he dialed up a pass play and re-learned the hard lesson that when you pass the ball, three things can happen — and two are bad. That set up Kirk Cousins to orchestrate his best drive yet in a Falcons uniform to lead the offense for a game-winning touchdown — but we are all left wondering what would have happened if defensive coordinator Vic Fangio would have sent pressure rather than playing soft coverage with his quarters pass coverage with two high safety engaging in the dreaded “prevent” defense. Cousins ended up with 20 completions from his 29 passes for 241 passing yards and two touchdown passes — but that solid stat line looks much different if he was not gifted the opportunity to complete 5 of 6 passes for 70 yards and a TD on that final drive. The eye-test from Monday observed a struggling Falcons offense that only gained 315 yards before that final drive. Tight end Kyle Pitts remains an afterthought. Robinson’s play-calling is a work in progress. We are left to wonder why he had Cousins in shotgun in the opening week against Pittsburgh before reverting back to him under center last week. Cousins' mobility remains limited. And now here comes Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who loves to send pressure — and he knows Cousins well from his time as the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants when Cousins entered the league with Washington. In Spags’ eight games against Cousins, his defense has sacked him eight times and limited him to 12 touchdown passes while picking off eight of his passes. The Steelers demonstrated the limitations this offense will face if Cousins is under duress. But the under-appreciated strength of this Atlanta team may be their defense that ranked 11th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 321.1 total Yards-Per-Game — and they added veteran pass rusher Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons in August. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points — and the Chiefs have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored including five of their last eight games on the road when not laying more than seven points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-24 |
Chiefs -2.5 v. Falcons |
Top |
22-17 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (475) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 win against Cincinnati as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) won their first game of the season on Monday with their 22-21 upset win at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: It took some spectacular game mismanagement from Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni to even give the Falcons the opportunity to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. But after Sirianni bypassed running the ball on third down to continue to burn time off the clock and set up a fourth down Push-Tush with Jalen Hurts icing the game with a first down, he dialed up a pass play and re-learned the hard lesson that when you pass the ball, three things can happen — and two are bad. That set up Kirk Cousins to orchestrate his best drive yet in a Falcons uniform to lead the offense for a game-winning touchdown — but we are all left wondering what would have happened if defensive coordinator Vic Fangio would have sent pressure rather than playing soft coverage with his quarters pass coverage with two high safety engaging in the dreaded “prevent” defense. Cousins ended up with 20 completions from his 29 passes for 241 passing yards and two touchdown passes — but that solid stat line looks much different if he was not gifted the opportunity to complete 5 of 6 passes for 70 yards and a TD on that final drive. So now the narrative is that the Falcons look dangerous and Cousins (much like Aaron Rodgers on Thursday) appears to be regaining his form recovering from his season-ending torn ACL last year. But if Atlanta did not steal that game on Monday, they would be 0-2 with serious questions regarding offensive coordinator Zac Robinson along with Cousins' health — and the calls to turn to rookie Michael Penix would already be starting with their season on the line to avoid that hypothetical 0-3 start. The eye-test from Monday observed a struggling Falcons offense that only gained 315 yards before that final drive. Tight end Kyle Pitts remains an afterthought. Robinson’s play-calling is a work in progress. We are left to wonder why he had Cousins in shotgun in the opening week against Pittsburgh before reverting back to him under center last week. Cousins' mobility remains limited. And now here comes Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who loves to send pressure — and he knows Cousins well from his time as the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants when Cousins entered the league with Washington. In Spags’ eight games against Cousins, his defense has sacked him eight times and limited him to 12 touchdown passes while picking off eight of his passes. The Steelers demonstrated the limitations this offense will face if Cousins is under duress. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Kansas City may be one Bengals’ point and one Isaiah Likely toe away from being 0-2 this season — but instead, the two-time defending champions are unbeaten this year despite not playing close to their best game yet. They certainly deserve credit for outlasting two of the best teams in the NFL with their victories against Baltimore and then a desperate Cincinnati team last week. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road. They proved their mettle and resolve on the road in the postseason last year with consecutive playoff wins against Buffalo and Baltimore. They will be without running back Isiah Pacheco tonight — but they have solid options in rookie Carson Steele and the return of third-down back Samaji Perine who they picked up again off waivers after Denver released him. Steele was explosive in the preseason for the Chiefs after being signed as an undrafted free agent from UCLA where he transferred to after playing at Toledo — he may very well be yet another diamond in the rough this organization discovered like Pacheco who they drafted in the sixth round. Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full-rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons by beating San Francisco in overtime by a 25-22 score. Now Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Spagnuolo, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. And while a revenge-motivated Ravens team led by Lamar Jackson moved the ball against them two weeks ago, they held the Bengals to just 320 total yards last week. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. Rice is developing into Mahomes’ favorite option with 12 receptions and 178 receiving yards so far this season.
FINAL TAKE: Mahomes has thrown three interceptions so far this season — but that is something he should reign in moving forward, especially against a suspect Falcons defense that had blown tackle after blown tackle in their first two games. Mahomes has a 17-4 record in September along with a 22-6 mark against the NFC — and while those numbers are straight-up rather than against-the-spread, they should offer confidence that he will, once again, lead his team to victory. Look for the Chiefs to play their cleanest game of the season without the comfort of a game in Arrowhead Stadium. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Kansas City Chiefs (475) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-22-24 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
24-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 upset loss at Minnesota as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 41-10 loss at Arizona as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Francisco is likely missing three important pieces to their dynamic offense with running back Christian McCaffrey on the injured list, wide receiver Deebo Samuel declared out for this game, and tight end George Kittle listed as doubtful. That takes away three of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s “jokers” where he can comfortably line them up in multiple offensive positions to stress the defense. Shanahan still has wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and fullback Kyle Juszczyk — but they are not as formidable without those other three versatile players on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy has already taken eight sacks this season. Expect a game plan similar to what the 49ers deployed against the New York Jets when they rushed for 180 yards — this game should be about smash-mouth football for the Niners after they gave up 403 yards to the Vikings last week. This remains a good 49ers defense that is only allowing 334.5 Yards-Per-Game this season. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored by seven points or less. Los Angeles is decimated with injuries. With the offensive line depleted and quarterback Matthew Stafford missing his top two wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams are likely to focus on running the ball behind Kyren Robinson and rookie Blake Corum to protect the offensive line (run blocking is easier to execute) and their veteran quarterback. The injuries have left this Los Angeles offense punchless — they are generating only 316.0 YPG this season which is resulting in 15.0 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to an NFC West rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-21-24 |
Toledo v. Western Kentucky +2.5 |
|
21-26 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (410) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (409). Western Kentucky (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 49-21 victory at Middle Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Toledo (3-0) continued their unbeaten season last week with their 41-17 upset victory at Mississippi State as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky generated 631 yards of offense to overwhelm the Blue Raiders. Junior quarterback T.J. Finley got injured in that game — but that opens up space for redshirt sophomore quarterback Caden Veltkamp to run the offense after being the hero for the team in last year’s Famous Toastery Bowl. Veltkamp completed 27 of 30 passes last week for 398 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played in September. Toledo dominated what turned out to be a hapless Bulldogs team (mental note: lesson learned) last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win by 17 or more points. And in their last 6 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games. This is a tough situational spot for the Rockets. Not only are they playing their second straight game on the road against a non-conference, but they have their revenge opportunity next week against Miami (OH) who beat them in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game last season. Quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for 285 yards last week — but he has yet to register a pass that qualifies as a “Big Time Throw” by Pro Football Focus this season. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in September.
FINAL TAKE: In their 21 games under head coach Tyson Helton as a single-digit favorite, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 16 of those contests by an average of +5.4 points versus the spread. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (410) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (409). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-21-24 |
Arizona State v. Texas Tech -4 |
|
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (384) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (383). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (2-1) rebounded from their 21-point loss at Washington State two weeks ago with a 66-21 throttling of North Texas as an 11-point home favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (3-0) remained unbeaten so far this season with their 31-28 upset win at Texas State as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas Tech dominated the Mean Green last week by generating 586 yards of offense and outgaining them by +233 net yards. One of the touchdowns they allowed was from a 44-yard interception by the North Texas defense. That pick-six came from backup quarterback Cameran Brown. Junior quarterback Behren Morton is a two-year starter leading this offense who has already thrown for 973 yards in three games with 10 touchdown passes. He completed 15 of 19 passes last week for 273 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The final score in the loss on the road to the Cougars two weeks ago was a bit deceptive since they won the yardage battle by +75 net yards. A -3 net turnover margin played a big role in that setback as well as fourth down proficiency. Texas Tech failed to convert in four of their five fourth down attempts in that game while Washington State was successful on two of their three fourth down attempts to help swing the game in their favor. The Red Raiders have been banged up this season. Running back Tahj Brooks did not suit up against the Cougars — and they lost four starters to injury during that game including the entire left side of the offensive line. Brooks returned last week to rush for 109 yards with a touchdown. While not back to 100%, Texas Tech is getting back injured players on both sides of the ball. Arizona State survived the Bobcats last week despite getting outgained by -53 net yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have a +6 net turnover margin so far this season. The Sun Devils have scored three defensive touchdowns this year — and they have converted on five of their six fourth down attempts. Now Arizona State stays on the road for the second straight week — and they may be due for an appearance from the Regression Gods. The Sun Devils suffered through their second-straight 3-9 campaign last year, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt has been their starting quarterback this season. While he offers a dual threat with his legs, he ranks 107th in the nation in Expected Points Added per dropback. Cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing so with many new players. I expected the Sun Devils to be much better — albeit that would not necessarily mean translate into more victories or point spread covers. About everything has gone right for this team to win and cover the point spread in their first three games, but their formula for success is unsustainable. Arizona State has still failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech is 22-11-1 ATS in their 34 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Arizona State-Texas Tech FS1-TV Special with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (384) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-21-24 |
Memphis v. Navy +10 |
Top |
44-56 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) has won their opening three games of the season after their 20-12 upset victory at Florida State as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. Navy (2-0) returns to the field after beating Temple by a 38-11 score two weeks ago as an 11.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers dominated time of possession last week while enjoying a +2 net turnover margin in pulling off the signature victory against the Seminoles. Florida State is reeling amidst a start to the season that has exposed the inattention to recruiting under head coach Mike Norvell. In hindsight, the talent level in Tallahassee is not nearly the same as it was last season after losing ten players in the NFL including six in the first three rounds. The Seminoles have become overly dependent on the transfer portal which is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Norvell seems to have missed at quarterback after bringing in former Clemson and then Oregon State’s D.J. Uigalelei. The Tigers come off their best season under head coach Ryan Silverfield in his four seasons with the program after a 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 36-26 victory against Iowa State at home in the Liberty Bowl. With 17 starters back led by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, Memphis was already a trendy pick to represent the Group of Five programs in the expanded College Football Playoffs — and now those playoff expectations fall firmly on their shoulders. Notre Dame felt similar pressure after their beating Texas A&M in their opening game — and they got upset the next week despite being nearly a four-touchdown favorite. The Tigers are just one of eight FBS programs that have been bowl-eligible for at least ten straight seasons. But while the offense was prolific with Henigan under center — ranking 14th in the nation generating 458.5 total Yards-Per-Game, the defense allowed too many big plays en route to surrendering 423.2 YPG, ranking 111th in the nation. A new NIL deal with FedEx helped Henigan become very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 29 players featuring 11 who were previous starters at FBS programs along with another five from the junior college ranks. Nine transfers add depth to the offense headlined by senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Silverfield added another 20 transfers to help improve the defense while promoting linebackers coach Jordan Hawkins to defensive coordinator to address the woes on that side of the ball. But with all these new additions to what had been a stable program, there is the question regarding the chemistry between the old guard and new players with everyone dealing with higher expectations. Despite going 6-2 in conference play last year, the Tigers got outscored by American Athletic Conference opponents by -6.0 YPG. I have worried about the underlying culture of this program under Silverfield in the past. They began last season having lost eight of their last ten games decided by one-scoring possession before winning four of their six games decided by a touchdown or less last year. Perhaps, as the analytics community preaches, the Regression Gods were simply due to even out that record in games decided by one scoring possession. On the other hand, if losing close games under Silverfield in the past had anything to do with underlying positive culture and cohesion issues, then the influx of all these new players and the expectations surrounding it could become a volatile mix that has not even played in an American Athletic Conference Championship Game in the Silverfield era. This is a very challenging spot for the Tigers staying on the road for a second week on the road against a team running a gimmicky new offense. It is highly doubtful that Silverfield and his coaching staff had anything other than Florida State on their minds last week. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on field turf. So far, so good for Navy after following up their victory against Bucknell with a dominant victory against the Owls in conference play. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at home. Navy has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home after a win by 17 or more points. The Midshipmen have been one of the hardest-hit programs given events outside of their control the last few seasons. Spring practices are crucial to the service academies since talent development is vital to replace what are typically starting lineups that feature seniors. Conducting zero practices in the spring of 2020 because of COVID coming off an 11-2 campaign set this program back. Even during their 2020 fall season, they experienced a 28-day midseason hiatus because of the ongoing pandemic that fall which completely disrupted their progress. The new era of the transfer portal or even the waived season of eligibility in 2020 are two areas that service academy programs can not utilize given the military service obligations. And then the NCAA’s cut block rule change two years ago took away one of the secret advantages for this program which was their spread triple option attack. First-year head coach Brian Newberry hired former Kennesaw State offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut to modernize the offense with more passing and they ditched the triple option. However, the experiment failed as Navy only generated 300.3 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 123rd and 122nd in the FBS. Newberry did not retain Chestnut and replaced him with Mercer head coach Drew Cronic who led the Tigers to the FCS playoffs last season. Cronic’s specialty is a hybrid wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass — the plan in Annapolis is to return to the triple-option but with spread principles. With an extra week to prepare for this game, expect many new schemes, formations, and plays from Cronic in what is this team’s biggest game of the season so far this year. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball with the defense also seeing six reserves on defense who got plenty of action in the two-deep last year. The Midshipmen’s defense remained the strength of the team last season by ranking 44th in the nation by allowing just 353.7 total YPG. There is stability on that side of the ball after Newberry had been the defensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over as head coach. Navy has had four straight losing seasons — and that 2019 season with 11 wins is their only winning season in the last six seasons. But their five victories last year were the most they have had since that 2019 campaign — so Newberry may have this program moving in the right direction again. Often the Midshipmen go only as far as their quarterback — and they may have found a good one in junior Blake Horvath who only played in one game last year before suffering a season-ending injury. Horvath took control of the starting job in the spring and held off sophomore Braxton Woodson in the fall. He ran for 112 yards with three touchdowns last week on 15 carries. But the exciting dynamic for this program is his passing threat as he completed 5 of 9 passes for 112 yards with a touchdown pass as well. Against Bucknell in their opening game, Horvath completed 7 of 12 passes for 168 yards with another two touchdown passes.
FINAL TAKE: Navy has lost five straight games to the Tigers — so snapping that losing streak would go a long way to re-establish this program. But they will come into this game with confidence after only losing 28-24 at Memphis as an 11.5-point underdog last September 14th. The Midshipmen were able to run the ball for 299 yards on 50 carries for a 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry average in that game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 meetings against the Tigers. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-24 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 38.5 |
|
3-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New England has continuity and cohesion on defense with a unit that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Bill Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 PPG. The offense is trying to put the defense in a position to succeed by running the football, limiting turnovers, and burning time off the clock. The Patriots are averaging 37.5 rushing attempts per game which has resulted them in being on offense for just under 35 minutes per game. This is a recipe for lower-scoring games. New England has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. But the Patriots are only generating 300.0 total Yards-Per-Game with this approach which is resulting in just 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Aaron Rodgers is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The Jets' defense remains good after holding the Titans last week to just 300 yards. They lead the NFL with a pressure rate of 44% against opponent dropbacks — and that could spell trouble for the Patriots’ Jacoby Brissett. New England ranks third-to-last in the league by allowing a pressure rate on 24% of their dropbacks — and they will be without left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow for tonight’s game. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home after a victory. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals — and they have played 4 straight Unders against the Patriots. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-24 |
Patriots +6.5 v. Jets |
Top |
3-24 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: After 24 years, the Patriots move on to Year One of the post-Bill Belichick era after they bottomed out with a 4-13 record last season. The offense stagnated without Tom Brady under center — they tied for last in the league by scoring only 13.9 Points-Per-Game. Why did this happen? (1) Poor coaching? (2) Mac Jones was not the answer at quarterback? (3) Lack of talent at wide receiver? I tend to think the blame on the coaching staff — even when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were moonlighting as offensive coaches two years ago — was overblown. In hindsight, Jones looks like a head case. Certainly, it is fair to say that Belichick did not put him in a position to succeed with skill position talent — especially at wide receiver. Jones’ lack of mobility compounded that problem. Jones is gone — and rookie Drake May is the future at quarterback. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator — and with the hiring of special assistant Ben McAdoo, the offense adopted the West Coast principles of the Green Bay offense before Matt LaFleur arrived. McAdoo was the previous Packers' offensive coordinator with Van Pelt the Quarterbacks Coach. Van Pelt is deploying a run-first approach that will set up play-action passes. He has emphasized more wide zone run schemes than this offense had used previously — and this seems to have unlocked running back Rhamondre Stevenson who has rushed for 201 yards so far this season. Stevenson ranks eighth in the NFL for rushers with at least 20 carries by generating +3.09 yards after contact — and now he faces a Jets’ defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed after contact against opposing rushers. The Patriots added Antonio Gibson in the offseason as a change of pace back — and he rushed for 96 yards from 11 carries last week. Pelt is also committing to the run with his personnel choices as they have deployed six or more offensive linemen 26 times this season while running the ball in 25 of those occasions — that leads the league. The offensive line is solid but banged up for this game — but there is depth and run-blocking is easier than pass-blocking. The team also signed Jacoby Brissett as a veteran placeholder at QB who enjoyed his best professional season in 2022 under Van Pelt’s guidance. He has not thrown an interception this season (knock on wood …). New England has continuity and cohesion on the other side of the ball with a defense that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 Points-Per-Game. Better play at quarterback from a year ago with at least some upgrade at the skill positions along with another tough defense could have the Patriots fighting for a playoff spot — remember, they made the playoffs three years ago and were still mathematically alive going into Week 17 two seasons ago. New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after a loss at home. They have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. In last year’s offseason in the first year with Aaron Rodgers under center, I questioned how the locker room would deal with all the distractions that have become part of the package of having the former MVP at quarterback. General manager Joe Douglass and head coach Robert Saleh were on the hot seat and seemingly going all-in on the Rodgers gamble. I also wondered if the Rodgers reconnection with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator during some of his best seasons in Green Bay, would be fruitful or was Hackett simply his “yes man” who got exposed as a coach out of his element in his one season as the Denver head coach. A year later, we lack answers to those questions since Rodgers lasted only four snaps before he suffered his season-ending Achilles injury. Douglass, Saleh, and even Hackett were given mulligans after that injury on Monday Night Football. But now the seats are even hotter with everything banking on Rodgers successfully recovering from a serious leg injury at 40 years old. And the distractions keep marching on. Rodgers kept teasing that his recovery was ahead of schedule and that he could make a near-miraculous return late in the season. While less than a fourth-month recovery from a torn Achilles is rare, Rodgers claimed his innovative training and healing techniques (including listening to dolphin sounds) would have him ready. But inevitably in a scene reminiscent of NBA players begging to “hold me back” from on-the-court fights that no one ever planned to initiate, Rodgers’ services were never required in late December with the Jets limping to another 7-10 record. Since then, some of Rodgers’ antics include a few days where he was being considered to be the Vice Presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy’s vanity presidential bid before later blowing off mandatory training camp sessions for his “previously scheduled” trip to Egypt. It is hard not to consider Rodgers simply a carnival barker at this point of his career when he keeps on sounding like a carnival barker. He is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The pressure cooker is tight for teams that are in Super Bowl or bust mode — especially ones that have not even made the playoffs since 2010. This team knows it is under the national spotlight tonight for Thursday Night Football. A big concern is that the defense has not played as well as last season. They rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 5.4 Yards-Per-Play. They also lost defensive end Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending Achilles injury last week. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings against the Jets. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-24 |
Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 48.5 |
|
22-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 18-10 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 34-29 win against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite in Brazil last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Falcons' defense for the loss last week — they held the Steelers to just 270 yards of offense despite being on the field for 35:36 minutes of that game. The Falcons have a good defense that ranked 12th in the NFL in Expected Points Allowed per Play and fifth in Opponent Success Rate against the Pass — and they added two quality veterans last month by trading for defensive end Matthew Judon and strong safety Justin Simmons. The problem for Atlanta was their sluggish offense which only gained 226 yards of offense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins only completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards — and he looked limited with his mobility in his return from his Achilles injury last season. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49-point range, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Philadelphia survived their game in Brazil against the Packers despite a -2 net turnover margin — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Head coach Nick Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown (and, BTW, he is out for tonight’s game with an injury) or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high — and he threw two more picks against Green Bay. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? They failed to get a first down on their lone push-tush last week.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football — and the Falcons have played 9 straight Unders when playing in Prime-Time. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-24 |
Falcons +6.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
22-21 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (291) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 18-10 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 34-29 win against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite in Brazil last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: I did not like the decision to sign Kirk Cousins as a free agent and then draft Michael Penix in the first round because of the opportunity costs. Sacrificing either a first round pick for a Cousins-led team or $100 million in guaranteed money against the salary cap with Penix under center limits the potential ceiling regarding how far this team can go in the next two seasons. But moves were fine if just looking at them in a vacuum. It was always unreasonable to expect Cousins to be at peak play in his first game back from his Achilles injury while adjusting to a new system. And facing a stout Steelers defense led by T.J. Watt was as bad an opening matchup as could have been drawn up. Cousins should play better this week — especially since the Eagles lack a pass rusher who is near the level of of Watt. Head coach Raheem Morris should have this team ready to compete tonight. His previous teams when he was the head coach for Tampa Bay covered the point spread in 10 of their 16 games after a loss at home — and they covered the point spread in all 4 of their games after an upset loss. Additionally, Morris’ teams have covered the point spread in 17 of their 28 games on the road as an underdog. The Falcons have a good defense that ranked 12th in the NFL in Expected Points Allowed per Play and fifth in Opponent Success Rate against the Pass — and they added two quality veterans last month by trading for defensive end Matthew Judon and strong safety Justin Simmons. Those were moves that would only be made by general manager Terry Fontenot if the coaching staff was pleased with the progress of Cousins in training camp. Philadelphia got outgained last week by four yards in their victory against the Packers — and they somehow won that game despite a -2 net turnover margin. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover. Of note in that game last week was that the Philly defense surrendered 414 total yards of offense. My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season; They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox retired and linebacker Hassan Reddick was traded to the New York Jets. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown (and, BTW, he is out for tonight’s game with an injury) or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high — and he threw two more against the Packers. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. Now after a big win last week, the Eagles return home as conquering heroes with everything supposedly fixed — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against an NFC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against the NFC. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (291) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-24 |
Bears v. Texans -5.5 |
|
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (290) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (289). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: I found it hard to be optimistic about the Texans going into last year after a three-year run where they had an 11-38-1 record. But rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans had an immediate impact on this team — and C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. But, on the other hand, general manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level of this roster. He traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to offer more weapons for Stroud. He signed 14 free agents and drafted another five players for a defense that ranked 14th in the NFL by allowing 330.7 total YPG. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. There may be too much talent in the locker room with Stroud that can push away the Regression Gods. The Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set higher than 41. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games following a game against an AFC South rival. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Bears. The Chicago hype revolves around Caleb Williams whom the Bears selected in the first pick in the NFL draft — and general manager Ryan Poles will not be accused of not putting their next potential franchise quarterback into a position to succeed this time around. After trading for wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster an anemic wide receiver room for Justin Fields last year, Poles traded for Keenan Allen from the Chargers and signed running back D’Andre Swift as a free agent who can catch balls out of the backfield. Poles also drafted Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth pick in the draft — and the fully-capable X wideout as the third option in this attack along with tight end Cole Kmet who caught 73 balls last year makes this offense look much, much better than in years past. The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One — and now he is playing his first NFL game in a hostile environment. The Bears enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Williams inherits a dismal Chicago legacy in prime-time games as the Bears are just 12-28-2 ATS in their last 42 games played at night. The Bears have also lost and failed to cover the point spread in all 7 of their appearances on Sunday Night Football — and they lost all seven of those games by double-digits. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (290) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-24 |
Bears v. Texans UNDER 46 |
Top |
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One. But don’t sleep on this Bears defense that made dramatic improvements in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — and they held the Titans to just 244 yards of offense. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home. They also enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Houston held the Colts to only 303 total yards in their narrow victory last week. The Texans ranked 11th in the NFL last season by allowing just 20.8 Points-Per-Game — and they should be better this year. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Houston scored 24.5 PPG at home in their nine regular season games last year — but they did not score more than 22 points in six of those nine home games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range — and the Bears have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-24 |
Giants +1.5 v. Commanders |
Top |
18-21 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (281) plus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (282). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 28-6 loss at home to Minnesota as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (0-1) opened their season with a 37-20 loss at Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINT(S): It was as bad a start as possible for the Giants in Week One with confidence in quarterback Daniel Jones perhaps hitting an all-time low after he completed only 22 of 42 passes for 186 with two interceptions last week. But the books have New York as just a small underdog in this game for a reason. The Giants did not nearly as bad as they did in their opener last year where they got humiliated at home against Dallas by a 40-0 score. The following week, they went on the road to beat Arizona by a 31-28 score. There are five other teams in the history of the NFL to lose two straight openers by 20 or more points — and those teams have won and covered the point spread in 4 of those 5 games. New York has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss under head coach Brian Daboll. Even with Jones as their QB, the Giants have rebounded to cover the point spread in 21 of their 35 games after a loss. Daboll, Jones, and general manager Joe Shoen and Jones are all on the hot seat in a make-it-or-break-it year. Daboll has reshuffled his coaching staff headlined by new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. Injuries played a big role in their 6-11 campaign last season — so the offensive line could improve if they stay healthy. Jones regressed after an encouraging first year under Daboll — but better protection could get him back to his 2022-23 form. Saquon Barkley was not resigned with the offense turning to a running back by committee approach. After ranking last in Explosive Plays, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers was drafted in the first round — and he is healthy to play this afternoon after dealing with an injury. The Giants have been more effective on the road relative to point spread expectations as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against fellow NFC East rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 30 games as an underdog. The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator to help the former college head coach of Patrick Mahomes continue his failing upward career trajectory. Kingsbury has been in the same room with some talented quarterbacks — but now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line that allowed Sam Howell to get sacked a league-leading 65 times last year. Daniels is thin and took too many hits last year — if his breakout senior season was a product of great talent at wide receiver at LSU, it could be a long season for the Commanders. He ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns last week as he drew comparisons as the next Lamar Jackson — but while he completed 17 of 24 passes, he was too often simply dumping the ball off as he only threw for 184 yards. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a loss by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after allowing 30 or more points. The Commanders make their debut at home at FedEx Field in the Quinn and Daniels era — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. Quinn’s journey to rebuild this defense looks to be a long one after they allowed Baker Mayfield to torch them for 392 total yards. And Washington already has kicker issues after cutting Cade York this week after he missed two field goals. They signed Austin Siebert off the street to take over the place-kicking duties.
FINAL TAKE: Jones is never more confident than when he is playing the Commanders — he is 5-1-1 straight up in his seven starts while covering the points spread in 6 of those 7 games. Daboll has covered the point spread in all 4 of his games against Washington (as an underdog in all four games, BTW) — covering the point spread by 11.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (281) plus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-24 |
Maryland v. Virginia +1 |
|
27-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 9/14:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the Virginia Cavaliers plus (or minus) the points versus the Maryland Terrapins. Virginia (2-0) looks to build off their 31-30 win at Wake Forest as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They return home looking to avenge their 42-14 loss at Maryland last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Maryland (1-1) looks to rebound from a 27-24 upset loss at home to Michigan State as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Terrapins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. Take Virginia plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is now on a 66 of 110 (60%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after CA$HING the Washington State-Washington Under in the Apple Cup in college football just now! Now Frank has tonight’s Toledo-Mississippi State ATS winner on ESPNU at 7:30 PM ET for his 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month! DO NOT MISS OUT!
|
09-14-24 |
Toledo v. Mississippi State -10 |
Top |
41-17 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-23 loss at Arizona State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Toledo (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 38-23 win against UMass as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a get-right game for Mississippi State under rookie head coach Jeff Lebby. The former offensive coordinator at Oklahoma and Ole Miss mentioned in his press conference after last week’s game that he is focusing on getting off to a better start by his team this week. The Bulldogs went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score before they made it a game in the second half by outscoring the Sun Devils on the road by a 16-3 score. They nearly overcame a devastating fumble on their one-yard line that Arizona State scooped up to score a defensive touchdown. Senior transfer quarterback from Baylor Blake Shapen played well in a hostile environment by completing 18 of 28 passes for 268 passing yards while throwing two touchdown passes without an interception. Mississippi State returns home to Davis Wade Stadium where they crushed Eastern Kentucky two weeks ago by a 56-7 score. The Bulldogs have covered the points spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 range. Toledo was fortunate to get past the Minutemen after they outgained by -126 net yards. The Rockets only gained 258 yards of offense and lost the first down battle by a 12 to 23 margin. They only produced a 26% Success Rate on their offensive plays. They benefitted from a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that immediately restored their seven-point lead in the second quarter. And the final score was deceptive since UMass failed at an onside kick after scoring a late touchdown with less than three minutes to go which gave Toledo a short field from which they scored a final touchdown to ice the game. Quarterback Tucker Gleason completed only 8 of 23 passes for 175 yards — he has completed less than 50% of his passes in over 200 career passes. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road after a victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win on their home field. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 37 or more points. Now after playing Duquesne and then the Minutemen at home, they go on the road for a big step up in competition against a Power Four program. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog under head coach Jason Candle. This is a rebuilding year for Candle with just eight starters back from their 11-3 team from last season. They lost three of their four starters in the secondary with two now playing in the NFL and one leaving in the transfer portal — and that leaves an inexperienced defensive backfield against this Bulldogs passing attack under Lebby.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played in September — and Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-24 |
Washington State v. Washington UNDER 54.5 |
|
24-19 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (137) and the Washington Huskies (138). THE SITUATION: Washington State (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 37-16 upset win against Texas Tech as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Washington (2-0) has won their first two games after their 30-9 win against Eastern Michigan as a 24.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars' defense has been of the bend-but-don’t-break variety as they have only given up 46 points despite ranking 124th in the nation in yards allowed. The formula for success in their “Super Bowl” game this season with the Pac-12 in transition will be to run the football and burn time off the clock. Washington State rushed for 301 yards against the Red Raiders last week. Sophomore quarterback Josh Mateer has struggled with his accuracy. He only completed 9 of 19 passes for 115 yards last week. This is a much different offense for head coach Jake Dickert after quarterback Cam Ward left the program in the offseason for Miami (FL). The Cougars have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 15 games in the first half of the season, Washington State has played 10 of these games Under the Total. Washington held the Eagles to just 204 yards of offense last week in their 21-point win. Two games into the Jedd Fisch era as the Huskies new head coach and it has been the defense that has stood out. They have held their first two opponents to just 228.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 3.4 Yards-Per-Play — and neither of those teams reached the end zone against them. Fisch’s teams have 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing in September. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have also played 4 straight Unders after a victory at home by 17 or more points. Former Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers is the new starting quarterback for this program — he completed 21 of 26 passes for 261 yards with four touchdown passes last week. But after playing Weber State and Eastern Michigan, this is the first big test for this new offense and their first game played away from Husky Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: The Apple Cup involves a team from the Big Ten as we enter a Brave New World. Fisch’s teams have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and the Cougars have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12. 10* CFB Washington State-Washington O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (137) and the Washington Huskies (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-24 |
UNLV v. Kansas -9 |
|
23-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). THE SITUATION: Kansas (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 23-17 upset loss at Illinois as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. UNLV (2-0) comes off a 72-14 victory at home against Utah Tech as a 41.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played at the Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City since Kansas is building a new football stadium this year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Lance Leipold will have his team ready to play in this rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last December. Leipold’s teams going back to his previous tenure at Buffalo have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games after an upset loss on the road. His Kansas teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with six days or less of rest. Leipold has miraculously transformed the Jayhawks into a College Football Playoff contender with the expanded field coinciding with his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters return from the group that finished 9-4 after their 49-36 victory against this UNLV team in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. He now has a veteran roster with 30 seniors including up to 15 who will be starters. Three of their four losses were decided by just one scoring possession. But how far this team can go will likely be determined by the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels who only played in three games last season. The dual-threat junior ranked third in the nation in Total QBR in his nine games played two seasons ago which was good enough for him to be named to the second All-Big 12 squad. Last year, he completed 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception before going down with an injury. On the other side of the ball, Kansas gave up -9.0 fewer Points-Per-Game and -91.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game than their previous season with defensive coordinator Brian Borland more comfortable in varying his schemes given his talent base. The front seven remains small with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, but more improvement with this unit will make things easier for an explosive offense that ranked fourth and third in the nation by scoring 41.7 PPG and generating 507.0 YPG. Daniels can be loose with the football — he threw three interceptions last week with the Fighting Illini returning one for a touchdown in what ended up being the difference in the game. The Jayhawks did hold Illinois to just 271 yards while outgaining them by +56 net yards. Tonight’s game presents a good opportunity for Daniels to learn from those mistakes and get on the same page with first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. Kansas ranks 20th in Success Rate on offense so far this season — and they are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. After ranking 11th in Explosiveness last season, they already have eight explosive plays this year. UNLV opened their season with a 27-7 upset win at Houston before their glorified scrimmage against an FCS school last week. My fundamental question regarding the Rebels last season was whether first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas. The answer was a resounding “Yes!” UNLV won nine of their first 11 games with their two losses being to eventual National Champion Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and at Fresno State. They reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where they lost at Boise State by a 44-20 score. Eleven starters return — and Odom is doing a nice job of using the transfer portal to poach offensive skill position talent from the FCS level and former blue-chip defensive backs who are looking for second chances after struggling at Power Four schools. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a rising star with his “Go-Go” up-tempo run-first offense that is heavy on pre-snap motion and flexible formations. The front seven was solid — UNLV ranked 33rd in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 42nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. But the Rebels ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing 415.5 total Yards-Per-Game because of their pass defense that ranked 111st by surrendering 253.7 passing YPG. The biggest loss in the offseason was sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava transferring to USC after being named the MWC Freshman of the Year. Odom dipped into the FCS ranks to bring in two transfer quarterbacks with dual-threat skills — and Patriot League Player of the Year Matthew Sluka seized the starting job in the fall. Sluka has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 46.7% of his passes. Last week’s game should have been an opportunity for him to build some confidence in the passing game — but he only completed 8 of 17 passes against the Utah Tech defense. Let’s remember that the Rebels lost their last three games of the season and only beat two of the seven teams who played in bowl games last year. They were 6-2 in conference play — but they only outgained MWC opponents by just 31 YPG. The defense got exposed when facing good offenses. Michigan scored 31 points against them while generating 8.1 Yards-Per-Play. Fresno State scored 31 points and averaged 5.1 YPP. San Jose State averaged 7.3 YPP en route to their 37 points. Boise State’s 44 points came from them generating 8.0 YPP. And in the bowl game, the Jayhawks gained 591 total yards by averaging 10.2 YPP while generating 449 yards in the air with six touchdown passes.
FINAL TAKE: UNLV has revenge on their minds but it may be Borland and the Kansas defensive coaches who will benefit more from recently facing Marion’s Go-Go approach on offense. The Rebels only rushed for 95 yards in that game from a 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry average — so the onus may be on Sluka to win this game with his arm. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UNLV-Kansas ESPN Special with the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-24 |
Bills +2.5 v. Dolphins |
|
31-10 |
Win
|
102 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (103) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The conventional wisdom is that the Bills began running the ball more when Ken Dorsey was fired and replaced by Joe Brady as offensive coordinator on November 14th — but I witnessed the seeds of this transformation earlier in the season in the second half of their game against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football after going into halftime trailing by a 6-0 score. Buffalo patiently leaned on their running game to grind out a 14-9 victory in what I saw as a foreshadowing of what this team will become moving forward. I can only imagine the verbal lashing head coach Sean McDermott unleashed on Dorsey at halftime of that game. Dorsey was fired about a month later. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are now gone — but I am encouraged by these moves. Sure, these changes can be evaluated as “addition via subtraction.” Diggs was inefficient and a diva wanting the ball — and Allen froze him out in the second half of the season. Davis perpetually underachieved. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applaud McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons. I think a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world. I like the shift in direction of this team as it better synchs with McDermott’s defensive tendencies. This approach may be grounded from their ability to dominate this Dolphins team. Buffalo has beaten Miami in 10 of their last 11 games against them while generating 417 Yards-Per-Game and scoring 34 Points-Per-Game. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game and they outgained by the Dolphins by +198 net yards. The Bills gained 473 yards in that game while holding Miami to just 275 total yards despite that game being played at Hard Rock Stadium. They held the Dolphins to just 20 points in their 48-20 victory in October. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season. For Miami, the biggest priority in the offseason last year seemed to be figuring out how to keep quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy after he suffered what was probably three concussions during the season. He is the essential point guard that makes head coach Mike McDaniels’ offense go — and he played an entire season for the first time since 2018. But it is fair to say the offense is limited at times since McDaniels and Tagovailoa are highly reluctant to attempt to gain yards from QB run plays. And while the media proclaimed McDaniels an offensive genius by his second game as head coach of the Dolphins, the dirty little secret is that his play-calling tends to get predictable in short-yardage, on third downs, and in the red zone. I wonder if the urgency to keep his quarterback safe limits his flexibility in these moments. Miami loves to emphasize their speed — but perhaps their league-leading 401.3 Yards-Per-Game last season is more a reflection of them being Flat Track Bullies than the genius of McDaniels? The Dolphins won 10 of their 11 games against sub-.500 teams last year — but they lost six of their seven games against teams with a winning record including that 28-point loss to Buffalo, a 37-point loss to Baltimore, and then their 26-7 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs. The problems Miami has in cold weather are well-documented with those conditions neutralizing their speed advantage. But good teams tend to have speed too — so maybe this offense simply hits a wall when facing similar talent? And good teams tend to expose the Dolphins' defense which was supposed to significantly improve under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. While Miami gave up -0.5 fewer Points-Per-Game and -19.5 YPG, their defense ranked just 19th in Defensive DVOA — and there was speculation that Fangio clashed with players inside the building. I wonder if Fangio’s frustration was a by-product of the culture McDaniel has fostered. Fangio is now gone — and McDaniels’ third defensive coordinator in three seasons is Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver. Gone is star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who signed for a big payday in Las Vegas. Cornerback Xavien Howard was a salary cap casualty. The unit was not helped late in the season when both Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb suffered season-ending injuries — and Chubb has started the season on the PUP list. There are injuries in the running back room as well with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. Being less than at full strength at running back is not a good development for this team since Tagovailoa only averages 207.7 passing Yards-Per-Game with a Passer Rating of 77.4 in his seven games against the Bills.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 5-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing at home. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (103) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-24 |
Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
31-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 270 total yards of offense. One of the Arizona touchdowns came from a 96-yard kickoff return. Defensive end Greg Rousseau registered three sacks — but it was Von Miller’s one sack and five hits on the quarterback that might be the most encouraging aspect of their play on defense last week. Von Miller only played 258 snaps in an injury-plagued season last year — it would be a boon for this defense if he regains the form he enjoyed when playing for the Los Angeles Rams in their Super win three years ago. The offense continued their focus on running the football under offensive coordinator Joe Brady who took over in November for Ken Dorsey. The Bills ran the ball 33 times while asking Josh Allen to pass only 23 times. Running the ball is a recipe for lower-scoring games — and it has the additional benefit of keeping the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game. The Bills have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range with Sean McDermott as their head coach. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. Miami’s defense played well last week as they held the Jaguars to just 267 total yards for former Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver who has taken over as their defensive coordinator. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster their defense led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. The offense is dealing with injuries at running back with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. The Dolphins have played 13 of their 18 games Under the Total when playing at home under head coach Mike McDaniel — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 6 of their 7 games played on a Thursday Under the Total in the McDermott era — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-24 |
Jets v. 49ers UNDER 44 |
|
19-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins anew after missing the playoffs for the 13th straight season with their 7-10 record last year. San Francisco (0-0) comes off their 25-22 loss in overtime against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York gets Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a season-ending injury on the first Monday night last year. Multiple reports indicate he looked very sharp in training camp — but it might be too much to expect a 40-year-old coming off major leg surgery to retain his same mobility. I expect the Jets to lean heavily on running back Breece Hall and their outstanding defense to grind out games. They only scored 15.8 Points-Per-Game last season while ranking second-to-last in the NFL by generating just 268.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Jets’ defense remains elite after only giving up 209 PPG and 292.3 total YPG — both marks were third best in the league and they also ranked third in the NFL in the Football Outsiders DVOA ranking and third in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total. It has been a noisy offseason for the 49ers. Running back Christian McCaffrey strained his Achilles early in training camp so he has not practiced much — and his health for this game remains a question. Left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out for the entire training camp demanding to renegotiate their contracts. While both stars eventually got their way in the last few days, they have not practiced much at all and may get limited action on the field tonight. As we witnessed last night, even the explosive Detroit Lions offense was sluggish last night in their opener despite playing at home against a defense with two rookies starting in the front seven (only 20 points in regulation!?!). The Niners’ offense looks primed to experience some rough patches as they get back in sync. And if Williams cannot anchor the offensive line, this team struggles as San Francisco has lost five straight games when Williams is not on the field for at least 50% of the snaps — and they averaged only 17.4 PPG in those games by scoring just 20, 19, 17, 17, and 14 points in those contests. The 49ers defense remains very good after allowing only 17.5 PPG last season which was the third-lowest mark in the league. There should be better cohesion on that side of the ball after some philosophical differences between head coach Kyle Shanahan and previous defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Nick Sorensen got promoted to run the defense. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in September.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams deployed their version of the four-corners offense in basketball last night by burning time off the clock when they had the ball last night — and I expect both teams to deploy similar strategies tonight. In Rodgers’ last full season in 2022 with Green Bay, they ranked tied for last (with the 49ers) in the NFL by averaging 31.0 seconds per play. San Francisco led the league last year by averaging 30.8 seconds per play. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-24 |
Jets +4.5 v. 49ers |
Top |
19-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins anew after missing the playoffs for the 13th straight season with their 7-10 record last year. San Francisco (0-0) comes off their 25-22 loss in overtime against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a noisy offseason for the 49ers. Left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out for the entire training camp demanding to renegotiate their contracts. While both stars eventually got their way in the last few days, they have not practiced much at all and may get limited action on the field tonight. Running back Christian McCaffrey strained his Achilles early in training camp so he has not practiced much — and his health for this game remains a question. Mounting injuries in the preseason led to head coach Kyle Shanahan having to cancel a joint scrimmage with New Orleans. There was the emotional shock of Ricky Pearsall getting shot last week. Those are plenty of distractions for any team — but for an organization coming off an overtime loss in the Super Bowl, it may only fuel the typical Super Bowl hangover the loser of that game tends to suffer. The loser of the Super Bowl has lost 14 of the last 24 opening games to the new season — and these runner-ups have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of those 24 games. And when these Super Bowl losers are favored by more than three points, while they have won 9 of their 13 games in Week One, they failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those 13 contests. If Williams cannot anchor the offensive line, this team struggles as San Francisco has lost five straight games when Williams is not on the field for at least 50% of the snaps. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games of a new season under Shanahan. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those games. New York gets Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a season-ending injury in the first Monday night last year. Multiple reports indicate he looked very sharp in training camp. He has won his last ten appearances on Monday Night Football. He certainly has plenty of weapons including wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams and running back Breece Hall. Rodgers’ teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing the role of the underdog. Rodgers also benefits from the luxury of an outstanding defense that ranked third in the NFL in the Football Outsiders DVOA ranking as well as third in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. The Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in the first half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers had covered the point spread in ten straight games at home culminating in a 42-10 win against Dallas on October 8th — but they have since failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games at home. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Jets (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-08-24 |
Rams v. Lions -4.5 |
|
20-26 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-0) returns to the field after their heartbreaking 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog the previous week.
REASONS TO THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit plays their first home game since beating Matthew Stafford and this Rams team in the postseason last January. The Lions have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams from the NFC. It is going to be difficult for the Los Angeles defense to slow down this explosive Detroit offense as they learn to live life without future Hall-of-Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. They traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones with a looming expiring contract with him — and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. Expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing in a domed stadium.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-08-24 |
Rams v. Lions OVER 52 |
Top |
20-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Detroit (0-0) lost the next week in a 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have played 8 of their last 19 games Over the Total when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Lions now get a playoff rematch against a Rams team learning to live life without future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Los Angeles also traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones they were facing a looming expiring contract with him — and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. There are issues with the Rams’ offensive line that gave me pause as well — but right tackle Rob Havenstein who is listed as questionable looks to play which minimizes the loss of suspended left tackle Alaric Jackson. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford should be fine — and he will never be healthier than he in Week One. He has plenty of motivation in another return to Detroit to play against his former team. When Stafford had wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua along with running back Kyren Williams on the field, the Rams generated a whopping 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Los Angeles will move the ball in the air against this suspect Lions defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 247.4 passing YPG. Once again, Detroit rebuilt their secondary which included drafting two rookies in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. But it will take time for them to get up to speed against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. The Lions were last in the league by allowing 69 receptions of 20 or more yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and Detroit has played 15 of their last 17 opening weeks to the new season Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-08-24 |
Texans v. Colts +3 |
Top |
29-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (470) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (469). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (0-0) comes off a 9-8 season where they missed the playoffs after a 23-19 loss at home to the Texans as a 1-point underdog in the final week of the regular season. Houston (0-0) finished 10-7 in the regular before advancing to the AFC Divisional Round where they lost on the road against Baltimore by a 34-10 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans have been one of the most hyped-up teams in the offseason given their 45-14 victory against Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs and the vast potential of C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. But Gardner Minshew was a dropped pass away from leading the Colts to victory and taking Houston’s spot in the playoffs. Indianapolis outgained the Texans by 54 net yards in that game as well — and they held Stroud and the Houston offense to just 306 total yards. Now this Indy team gets Anthony Richardson back at quarterback who led the team to a fast start in the first half before getting knocked out of that game with an injury in their 31-20 victory at home against Houston in Week Two last year. The easy question regarding the Colts is how good Richardson can be in his second season after only throwing 84 passes last season (and can he stay healthy?). I think the real question is how good the supporting cast is for him or the 39-year-old Joe Flacco beyond the quarterback position. General manager Chris Ballard’s priorities in the offseason were resigning wide receiver Michael Pittman, defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and linebacker Zaire Franklin. Indianapolis ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 349.8 Yards-Per-Game — but that number rose to 371.1 YPG when playing at home which helped them generate 25.7 Points-Per-Game. They outgained their guests by +18.4 net YPG when playing at home at Lucas Oil Stadium. What makes Richardson a potential generational talent is his dual-threat capabilities. He generated 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry while rushing for four touchdowns in his four games last year. I’m not down on Houston — I just think they are overvalued in this opening game spot as a road favorite against a divisional rival pining for this revenge opportunity for the entire offseason. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They had a 7-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were outclassed in the AFC Divisional Playoff round in a 34-10 loss to Baltimore. The Texans struggled to offer Stroud a credible rushing attack — they failed to rush for at least 100 yards in 12 of their games. They did sign Joe Mixon from Cincinnati in the offseason — but he has not generated more than 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry since the 2018 season. Offensive coordinator deploys a zone-blocking run scheme which is an approach Mixon has struggled with in his career. The Texans were a better statistical team at home last season. On the road, Houston only scored 18.4 PPG and generated 301.6 YPG — and they were outscored by -4.3 net PPG while getting outgained by -29.8 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games as a favorite last season — and the Colts covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games when playing with equal rest. 25* NFL AFC South Underdog of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (470) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-24 |
California +12.5 v. Auburn |
|
21-14 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). THE SITUATION: California (1-0) won their opening game of the season in a 31-13 win against UC-Davis as a 20.5-point favorite last Saturday. Auburn (1-0) began their season with a 73-3 victory against Alabama A&M as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal looked sluggish last week by only gaining 281 yards of offense against the Aggies — but they were holding some things back to save for this game. First-team All-Pac 12 running back Jaydn Ott only ran the ball 14 times for 49 yards — but he did score two touchdowns. The Golden Bears went into halftime with just a 14-13 lead — but they controlled the second half by outscoring UC-Davis by a 17-0 margin to pull away for the comfortable victory. They held the Aggies to just 304 total yards of offense — and they gave up only one offensive touchdown with UC-Davis scoring on a six-yard fumble recovery. Head coach Justin Wilcox has 15 starters back from the team that finished 6-7 after a 34-14 loss to Texas Tech as a 3-point underdog in the Independence Bowl. The Golden Bears did win their final three games of the regular season to become bowl-eligible. This may be Wilcox’s best team at Cal since his 2019 team that finished 8-5. The offensive line returns seven players with starting experience who entered the year with 117 combined starts. While Wilcox brought in former North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers in the transfer portal, it was sophomore Fernando Mendoza under center again after starting eight games last season. He was efficient last week by completing 15 of 22 passes for 158 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. The defense has eight starters back. Cal has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing with equal rest with their opponent. The Golden Bears have been very reliable in spots like this having covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games on the road as an underdog under Wilcox. They have also won four of their last seven games on the road against teams outside their conference — and they have covered the point spread in all 7 of those games. Auburn’s offense was only on the field for 13:26 minutes last week but still racked up 728 yards of offense in their glorified scrimmage against Alabama A&M. Hosting cupcakes before taking on SEC opponents has been the standard operating procedure for the Tigers — this game is the first time they are playing at home against a non-conference Power Five/Power Four program scene 2016. They have 17 starters back from the group that finished 6-7 last season after getting upset by Maryland in the Music City Bowl by a 31-13 score as a 4-point favorite. The defense replaced five players who got drafted into the NFL. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored by at least a touchdown up to -37 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Berkeley last season with the Tigers pulling out a 14-10 victory as a 6-point road favorite — so Cal will have revenge on their mind while confident they can compete after outgaining the Tigers by 43 net yards on the strength of their defense that gave up only 230 yards of offense. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against opponents outside the SEC. 10* CFB California-Auburn ESPN2 Special with the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-24 |
Packers v. Eagles UNDER 49.5 |
|
29-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (453) and the Philadelphia Eagles (454). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) finished 10-9 last season after their 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) finished 11-7 last year after their 32-9 loss in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers in the NFC Wildcard Round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This opening game involves two veteran head coach who should see significant improvement on the defensive side of the football after hiring new defensive coordinators who are immediate upgrades. Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni was bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season. And to no surprise, the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving. They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. Sirianni tapped Vic Fangio to run his defense this season — the 65-year-old is considered the architect of the two-high safety shell defense that is all the rage right now to limit big-play explosiveness in the modern pass-happy league. General manager Howie Roseman also addressed the embattled defensive secondary by drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the first two rounds of the NFL draft and resigning C.J. Gardner-Johnson who left the team two years ago to sign as a free agent in Detroit. On the other side of the ball, the offense may struggle to adapt to new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Quarterback Jalen Hurts described the offense as 95% new — and he did not play a snap in the preseason so rust is likely. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when favored by up to a touchdown. The Green Bay offense may also be rusty out of the gate since quarterback Jordan Love only threw two passes in the preseason. Head coach Matt LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42 to 51-point range.
FINAL TAKE: I suspect both offenses will be sluggish in their execution playing in Brazil in this opener after getting very little action in the preseason exhibition games. These two teams have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against each other — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing against each other away from Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Friday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (453) and the Philadelphia Eagles (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-24 |
Packers +2 v. Eagles |
Top |
29-34 |
Loss |
-101 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (453) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (454). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) finished 10-9 last season after their 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) finished 11-7 last year after their 32-9 loss in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers in the NFC Wildcard Round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, I think LaFleur deserves a ton of credit — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers which makes me still consider if the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers' defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games away from home if not favored by three or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with equal rest as their opponent. My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season. They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox returned and linebacker Hassan Reddick. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Despite how ugly Philadelphia looked last season, DraftKings opened with them as a 1.5-point favorite back in April — and the betting public has been on the Eagles ever since in expecting them to bounce back from their slide. If they do, it will take some time given all the changes. They are just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC rivals — and the Packers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against NFC foes. 25* NFL Peacock Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (453) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-05-24 |
Ravens v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 |
|
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) looks to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at home against the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 4.5-point underdog on January 28th. Kansas City (0-0) begins their quest for a three-peat after their 25-22 victory in overtime against San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog in the Super Bowl last February.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 22 points that the 49ers scored against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl was just the third time all season that they had given up more than 21 points — and the most points they gave up all season was the 27 points that Green Bay scored against them at Lambeau Field in December. They held seven of their last nine opponents last season to 20 or fewer points. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City scored 21 points or less in 11 of their games. Veach addressed that unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. In theory, the deep threat both players offer will open things up — but Brown remains out from the injury he suffered in the opening week of the preseason. Worthy is an intriguing prospect — but it is unlikely the rookie will unlock this offense by himself in Week One. The Chiefs have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning their previous game on the road. And while Kansas City closed out last season on a six-game winning streak, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when riding a winning streak of four or more games. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And in their last 9 games at home, they have played 8 of these games Under the Total. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when Spagnuolo had two or more weeks to prepare for their opponent. Spags may simply have Jackson’s number. Jackson has only completed 55.7% of his passes against the Chiefs in his career while averaging only 204.4 passing YPG. He has five touchdown passes but three interceptions — and his Passer Rating against them is only 78.1. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The Ravens defense does have nine starters back from their unit that led the NFL by giving up only 16.4 Points-Per-Game — and they were second in the league in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in the Ravens’ last 14 games against fellow AFC rivals.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total against Baltimore. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-05-24 |
Ravens v. Chiefs -3 |
Top |
20-27 |
Win
|
104 |
14 h 29 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) begins their quest for a three-peat after their 25-22 victory in overtime against San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog in the Super Bowl last February. Baltimore (0-0) looks to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at home against the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 4.5-point underdog on January 28th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons. Now Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. Brown is injured for this game but Worthy will play and Reid has indicated that Justin Watson will get plenty of snaps taking Brown’s role on the field after he generated 17.0 Yards-Per-Reception last season. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. Rice will play tonight — he has a looming suspension for off-the-field issues but the league has not resolved that matter. The Chiefs closed the season on a six-game winning streak — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or more games in a row while covering the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning five or more games in a row. While Week One is not an official bye week, Reid has had at least two weeks to prepare which invokes his 22-14 ATS mark with Kansas City when has had extra time to prepare for his next game. In season openers with the Chiefs, Reid’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their 11 games with nine straight-up wins. After getting upset last season by Detroit, Kansas City should have an extra chip on their shoulder to get an opening night win in front of their home fans. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against conference opponents. For Baltimore in hindsight, the philosophical change on offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken was (mostly) wildly successful. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. The Baltimore offense ranked third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. But after a dominant 13-4 regular season where they outscored their opponents by +12.1 Points-Per-Game and then blowing out Houston by a 34-10 score in the AFC Divisional playoff round, the struggles in the playoffs reared its ugly head again for Jackson against his arch-nemesis in the Chiefs. Why was it that the Ravens only handed the ball off to a running back eight times in that game despite a good offensive line that helped them lead the league in rushing? Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took away the run and dared Baltimore to win the game behind Jackson’s arm — and they couldn’t do it. Again. Spagnuolo may simply have Jackson’s number. Jackson has only completed 55.7% of his passes against the Chiefs in his career while averaging only 204.4 passing YPG. He has five touchdown passes but three interceptions — and his Passer Rating against them is only 78.1. Mahomes, on the other hand, has a 72.8% completion percentage while averaging 344.0 passing YPG against the tough Ravens’ defenses over the years. He has thrown 13 touchdown passes against Baltimore with only two interceptions — and he has a 115.5 Passer Rating against them in his career. And then there were the losses in the offseason for the Ravens. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The defense returns nine starters from a group that led the league by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG — but that unit will miss linebacker Patrick Queen who signed with their arch-rival Pittsburgh. The bigger concern on that side of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr takes over defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. General manager Eric DeCosta signed the 30-year-old Derrick Henry to a two-year deal — but he is coming off a career-low 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry and has plenty of tread on the tires. Perhaps the second half mistakes against the Chiefs were just part of the journey this franchise needs to take under Jackson before climbing the mountain. But it sure seems like a missed opportunity, in hindsight. The Ravens have now failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Kansas City — and they do not appear to be as good an overall team on September 5th as they were back on January 28th.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-02-24 |
Boston College v. Florida State -15 |
|
28-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (220) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (219). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 24-21 upset loss against Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland last Saturday. Boston College (0-0) makes their season debut tonight returning 17 starters from the group that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 win against SMU in the Fenway Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Yellow Jackets last week after concluding they were undervalued in that game. I also worried about Florida State perhaps looking past that team that has been rebuilding for years in the post-Paul Johnson era. The Seminoles may think they have become a top-five program — and they treated that game like it would be easy for them. My biggest question with this team in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 games in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players, including five from Alabama. Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. Former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien returns to the college ranks as a head coach where he previously was the head coach at Penn State for two seasons after the Joe Paterno controversy. He has also served as the offensive coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban and most recently was the offensive coordinator under Bill Belichick for the New England Patriots last season. But after agreeing to take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State, he then took this job at Boston College on February 9th to give him a late start on this new challenge. What does it say that previous head coach Jeff Hafley concluded that the defensive coordinator job for the Green Bay Packers was a better gig? Are the pressures of coaching in college with the transfer portal and NIL too demanding? Or did Hafley see the writing on the wall given the roster next season after years of him living-and-dying using the transfer portal? The Eagles return 17 starters from the team that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 victory against SMU in the Fenway Bowl. They had a 5-2 record in games decided by seven points or less which covered up for them getting outgained by -3.9 Yards-Per-Game. It was the first time in five seasons that they won more than six games. The defense has continued to slide as they ranked 83rd in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game and they ranked 70th in the country by surrendering 385.1 YPG. Even worse, the Eagles ranked 117th in the nation by giving up 6.1 Yards-Per-Play. The last time Boston College ranked in the top 40 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings was in 2017. O’Brien brought in three transfers to bolster the talent and depth in the defensive backfield, but the front seven may be the bigger concern. The Eagles ranked 118th in the nation by giving up 181.4 rushing YPG and their mere 13 sacks ranked last in the country in Sacks Per Game. Fixing the defense is going to be a long-term project for O’Brien and defensive coordinator Tim Lewis. Florida State should get their ground game tonight against that suspect run defense — and that should set up Uigalelei to have a better game with the running game established. He was solid if unspectacular last week by completing 19 of 27 passes without an interception.
FINAL TAKE: Boston College has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games against the Seminoles — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against them in Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State is the vastly superior team in terms of talent — and they will take their frustrations out on an Eagles team making their season debut with a new coaching staff. 10* CFB Boston College-Florida State ESPN Special with the Florida State Seminoles (220) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-31-24 |
Wyoming +7 v. Arizona State |
|
7-48 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) returns 14 starters from a team that finished 9-4 last season culminating in a 16-15 victory against Toledo in the Arizona Bowl. Arizona State (0-0) has ten starters back from their group that finished 3-9 last year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: WYOMING: It is the beginning of a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired in the offseason to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. The team may have peaked last season after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Wyoming has finished .500 or better in seven of the last eight years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. They also have reached a bowl game in six of their last seven (non-pandemic shortened) seasons. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel takes over as the head coach and is not likely to change the core identity of this team. But the offense is not likely to be as conservative as in the past under former Michigan State offensive coordinator Jay Johnson. He will likely bring more spread and tempo concepts to an offense that will still want to impose their will in the ground game. The Cowboys’ running back room has depth and the offensive line returns four starters. Wyoming fans hope that Evan Svoboda wearing #17 will evoke memories of Josh Allen. The junior quarterback has a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He started the game at Texas — and it was 10-10 in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns pulled away — and orchestrated the two winning drives in their bowl game. The defense returns 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. The Cowboys ranked 36th in the nation by holding their opponents to 22.6 Points-Per-Game. The Sun Devils suffered through their second straight 3-9 campaign, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. The former Oregon offensive coordinator also saw his team pull off upsets against Washington State and UCLA. The 34-year-old is working hard on the recruiting trail while being very active in the transfer portal to improve the depth of the roster. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. The defense was reported to have played much better in spring practice. The offense will be led by Sam Leavitt who transferred in from Michigan State after Jaden Rashada left the program for Georgia in the spring. The redshirt freshman has potential but did not get much playing time for the Spartans last season. Both sides of the ball have a long way to go still — and cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing so with many new players. The Sun Devils should be much better — but that does not necessarily mean they will win (or cover the point spread) in more games this season. Arizona State has lost and failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference FBS opponents. They are also 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home against FBS foes. Furthermore, the Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have gone 4-4 in their last eight games on the road against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of those 8 games. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-31-24 |
Notre Dame v. Texas A&M -3 |
Top |
23-13 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (0-0) returns 18 starters from a team that finished 7-6 last season in their 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 10-3 after a 40-8 victory against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: This game offers a fresh start for a Texas A&M program that remains loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Head coach Jimbo Fisher took his powder keg of a situation in College Station last season and threw dynamite on it by hiring two new coordinators (and former head coaches) with sketchy backgrounds in OC Bobby Petrino and DC D.J. Durkin. After the Aggies lost four the fourth time to Ole Miss in early November, Fisher was fired the next week. Texas A&M finished the season 7-6 but played with heart in a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl despite being without 30 of their players including 12 starts even before starting quarterback Jaylen Henderson left the game on the first play because of injury. The new head coach is Mike Elko who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher from the 2018 through 2021 season. He exceeded expectations at Duke by overseeing a 16-9 record in his two seasons there. Elko inherits an Aggies roster still loaded with talent from years of top-ten recruiting classes assembled by Fisher. Eighteen starters are back from last year’s team that outgained SEC opponents by +74 net Yards-Per-Game. The negative culture in College State during Fisher’s reign might have contributed to the Aggies losing all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings still placed Texas A&M as the 16th-best team in the country at the end of the season. Elko was aggressive in the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he brought in 14 new players including eight in the defensive backfield. Injuries at the quarterback position marred Fisher’s tenure as well with seven different quarterbacks having to play in the last two seasons due to injuries. Junior Conner Weigman was ranked third in the nation in Total QBR before his season-ending broken foot in Game Four last season. He is a former 5-star recruit with NFL potential. In his nine career games, Weigman has thrown for 1875 yards with 16 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. The biggest concern remains the offensive line which was an area that Fisher struggled to get right. Three starters return from that unit — and when considering the transfer players Elko brought in, there are 112 combined starts represented from the group. New offensive coordinator Collin Klein will have the element of surprise tonight implementing a new offensive scheme for this team after finding success the last two seasons as the offensive coordinator at Kansas State. Don’t be surprised if he deploys an aggressive run scheme leaning on a crowded running back room of blue-chip talent. For Notre Dame, excitement is sky-high in South Bend in what could be their deepest roster in three decades. Third-year head coach Marcus Freeman has done a nice job mixing old-school recruiting of high schoolers enamored with the Notre Dame brand with targeting areas of need in high-profile transfer players. But is his looking for the shiny object at quarterback thwarting the development of potentially better options under center? My biggest question regarding the Fighting Irish in the offseason last year was whether “the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season. After an 0-3 start in 2022, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense.” Hartman was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the year but inconsistent play and a bad interception in the loss at Clemson had him drawing criticism for much of the season. Such is life as the quarterback for the Golden Domers. But there was plenty of blame to cast. The wide receiver room continued to lack explosiveness and a reliable number-one option. And despite having two tackles drafted into the NFL, it was only Joe Alt who was reliable in pass protection for the Fighting Irish. Now Freeman has responded by tapping LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to run the offense in South Bend. This is Denbrock’s third tour of duty for the Irish after serving as offensive coordinator from 2002-2004 and then from 2010-2016. But bringing him back now certainly seems like Freeman’s desire to install the vertical passing attack that helped Jayden Daniels have so much success last year. Yet even after hitting the transfer portal with three more incoming wide receivers, the room probably does not have anyone approaching the talent of Mike Nabors or Brian Thomas. Freeman turned to the ACC again by inking Duke’s Riley Leonard to the program after he entered the portal. Leonard has a big arm and nice mobility, who put up some good numbers with the Blue Devils — but accuracy and durability are concerns. He was not as highly touted or recruited as redshirt sophomore Steve Angeli who played well in the Irish’s 40-8 win against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. A further move away from the power run game that worked so well in the second half of 2022 may not be playing into the talent on the roster. The Fighting Irish defense could be the foundation forming the identity of this team under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have nine starters back to build on a ground that ranked fifth in the nation by holding their opponents 276.4 Yards-Per-Game. I remain perplexed regarding how close this team is to making a deep run in the new College Football Playoffs. On the one hand, their average margin of victory in their ten wins was by +33 Points-Per-Game. They beat three opponents that finished in the SP+ top-40 by at least three touchdowns. Yet the Irish may simply have become Flat Track Bullies under Freeman with their three losses last year by an average margin of -8.0 PPG. This brings me to this question: what is the signature victory for Notre Dame in the two seasons under Freeman? A 48-20 victory last year against an 8-5 USC team? Their 34-14 win against Clemson the year before probably tops the list. Yet the Irish started that year 0-2 after an upset loss at home as a 20-point favorite against Marshall before later getting upset by Stanford as a 16-point favorite. Last year, a coaching blunder left only 10 Irish defenders on the field on the crucial fourth down play in which Ohio State scored their game-winning touchdown with just one second left in the game. The Fighting Irish would later get overmatched in a 33-20 loss at Louisville. And then in Clemson’s opportunity for revenge, Notre Dame spotted them an 18-point lead in the first half before their comeback fell short. Perhaps these are all just the growing pains of a program that is about to become mainstays in the 12-team playoff year-after-year. On the other hand, what if this is a program that simply hits a ceiling when facing top-15 opponents? If that is the case, then Freeman’s short-term decisions at quarterback and the looming change in focus in philosophy on offense could make them more vulnerable to taking a step or two in the wrong direction. That all said, this is a huge game for the Irish since their relatively easy schedule the rest of the way may put them on the College Football Playoff bubble if they have two losses at the end of the year (and a 10-3 record would probably leave them out — especially with later opponent Florida State already with one loss).
FINAL TAKE: These two are very familiar with each other. Denbrock had great success scheming against this Texas A&M defense with LSU last season — but he had the benefit of three first-round NFL draft picks in Daniels, Nabors, and Thomas. There may be no head coach better prepared to devise a game plan against Leonard than Elko after he was his head coach for the last two seasons. And, of course, Elko has familiarity with Notre Dame after serving as their defensive coordinator. Finally, the atmosphere at Kyle Field should be electric where the Aggies have won 11 home openers in a row while covering the point spread in 7 of those games. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-24 |
Florida State v. Georgia Tech +10.5 |
|
21-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (0-0) returns 13 starters from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Central Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl by a 30-17 score. Florida State (0-0) has ten starters back from their group that lost to Georgia in the Orange Bowl by a 63-3 score. This game is being played on a neutral field at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: My biggest question with Florida State in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 games in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players, including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point — and the reports suggested he was inconsistent in spring practice. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. This is a challenging trip to Europe — and the team will be without offensive coordinator Alex Atkins who is suspended for the first three games this season for recruiting violations. Now they face an improving Georgia Tech team that upset Wake Forest, Miami (FL), and Virginia on the road last season. Any concern that the Yellow Jackets jumped the gun on giving Brent Kay the permanent head coaching job after a small sample size in 2022 when he went 4-4 down the stretch taking over for the fired Geoff Collins was put to rest last season. For the first time in five seasons, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24.0 Points-Per-Game with sophomore quarterback Haynes King leading the way to a 31.1 PPG scoring average. The former four-star recruit from Texas A&M is poised for a breakout campaign in his junior season under second-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and co-coordinator and quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke. The dual-threat QB accounted for 35 total touchdowns — and he has seven starters back to join him. It is the other side of the ball that remains the work in progress. Georgia Tech ranks 120th in the nation by allowing 437.1 Yards-Per-Game. Five starters return — and Kay brought in nine transfers and hired Tyler Santucci as the new defensive coordinator after he oversaw a good Duke defense last year. The group needs more depth and playmakers — but improving on their run defense that ranked 128th in the FBS by allowing 221.3 YPG with opposing rushers generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Kay was able to retain several important players from the temptations of the transfer portal. He is building a culture focused on toughness and doing an admirable job bringing in talent despite the high academic standards in the Admissions Office.
FINAL TAKE: The weather forecasts in Dublin call for wind gusts of up to 20 miles per hour — and that element adds volatility to the mix to this Seminoles team that has national championship aspirations. I’m not sure Florida State is at the level from season-to-season — and the Yellow Jackets probably have the better quarterback in this one. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in all 4 of their games against ranked ACC opponents under Key’s leadership — and they pulled off the upset in all four contests. 10* CFB Florida State-Georgia Tech ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-24 |
49ers v. Chiefs +2 |
Top |
22-25 |
Win
|
100 |
205 h 45 m |
Show
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At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: The so-called “sharps” are on the 49ers for this game — but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about out half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. I think the sharps and the computer models are failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs have been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It’s chip time now — so the Chiefs will be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season. This team is different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group has faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team has found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it’s chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They face a San Francisco team that has good underlying numbers — but what if they are being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia do not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes is a mismatch. I appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that is no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. But take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completes 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left Spagnuolo will be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson is likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.
FINAL TAKE: No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but Kansas City has the edge in both coaching and the defensive unit. The 49ers have the better skill position players — but then there is Mahomes versus Purdy. Even if Purdy is as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it’s another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-11-24 |
49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
22-25 |
Win
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100 |
164 h 12 m |
Show
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At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (102) and the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs found themselves in a defensive struggle in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Ravens — and a similar game script appears likely in the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense only generated 319 yards despite being on the field for 37:30 minutes of that game. They generated only 4.49 Yards-Per-Play but were happy to control the time of possession by running 71 offensive plays including 32 rushing attempts. The Chiefs' lack of a vertical passing attack helped the Ravens contain big plays. Marques Valdes-Scantling was the deep threat in their previous game against Buffalo but he does not demand double teams. They used rookie Rashee Rice on some deep throws against Baltimore — but they did not connect and he is more adept as a possession receiver. However, when in the past the lack of explosive plays would frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he now seems quite comfortable grinding out first downs while not forcing the action. They have scored 20 points or less ten times this season. It helps Mahomes that he now has confidence in the Kansas City defense which is the best unit in his tenure in the NFL. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 16.8 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed more than 21 points only twice all season. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business — and now he has two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan’s offense and quarterback Brock Purdy’s tendencies. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when given two weeks of rest and preparation. The 49ers have an explosive offense that generates 396.4 total YPG and 28.9 PPG — but Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. For San Francisco, there are signs that their offense is slowing down a bit. They had not scored more than 27 points in four straight games before the NFC Championship Game. They gained 413 total yards against the suspect Lions' defense — but 51 of those yards came from that lucky tipped ball from Purdy’s overthrown pass that somehow landed in the hands of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Take away that play — and Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the next series that set the Niners up for a short touchdown drive — and the 49ers only score 17 points from 361 total yards. But don’t sleep on this 49ers defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in eight of their last 11 games. San Francisco only gives up 316.2 YPG when playing away from home resulting in 16.1 PPG. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. BONUS SUPER BOWL PROPS REPORT: I used the prop bets at DraftKings as a guide. I know that not everyone will have accounts with that book so please deploy the logic behind each bet to the appropriate and available prop bet at the book you are using.
BEST BET: Brandon Aiyuk Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings).
Our Best Bet for Super Bowl props is Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yardage for the game finishing Under the Total (-115 at DraftKings). Aiyuk is likely to be the primary defensive assignment for Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is one of the best in the business. Aiyuk only has 100 receiving yards in his two playoff games this season — although he did have 68 receiving yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The more glaring number is that he was only targeted by Brock Purdy three times in each game — and that is not a great recipe to get 61 or more receiving yards. In his 18 games played this season, this Under wins nine times. Perhaps more importantly, this Under hits in six of Aiyuk’s nine games played away from Levi’s Stadium. In general, I am expecting a heavy run script from 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Chiefs' run defense is their bigger vulnerability and Shanahan has been living with the criticism of too quickly abandoning the run not only in the 2021 Super Bowl when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons but also in their earlier loss this season to Baltimore. Furthermore, while Shanahan needs big plays, he tends to find solutions from pass plays — but I think “now or never” aspect of the Super Bowl means more of his trick plays using gadget players like Kyle Jusszczyk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery (his favorite player). Additionally, I suspect that Shanahan will be very sensitive about putting Purdy in a position to succeed in this game — and that means safer play calls, especially early in the game. Aiyuk’s primary role in this game may be as a decoy and as the magnet that draws Sneed’s attention away from where Shanahan wants the ball to go.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings).
Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Mahomes to throw Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes nine times this season — including two of his three playoff games. Furthermore, Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes in four of his last five games as well as six of his last eight contests. The focus of the offense has shifted from explosive plays when they had Tyreek Hill to now their running game behind Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice remain threats in the passing game — but the Niners will focus on stopping them. The lack of a great third-receiving option will help us win this prop. Getting this prop at plus money (+130) presents great value.
BONUS LONG SHOT BETS:
(1) Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+7000 at DraftKings). This one is worth a lottery ticket flyer. The lack of a third Chiefs’ receiving option does open up space for players like Gray to step up — and head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up trick plays to get guys like him involved (as he did Kadarius Toney in last year’s Super Bowl). Kansas City is playing more 12 and 13 personnel sets with two or three tight ends on the field. Gray is the second tight end on the depth chart — and he has played 58.5% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. He has seen three or more targets in 55% of his games this season. He has two targets in the Red Zone in these playoffs. And most importantly, Mahomes trusts him — he has only one drop in his 41 targets this season.
(2) Isaiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player (+2500 at DraftKings). Pacheco has averaged 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last eight games. In his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests as well. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that surrendered 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 93 rushing yards to Detroit’s David Montgomery, and 45 rushing yards to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in their last two games. The Niners are surrendering 159.0 rushing YPG in the playoffs. I expect Pacheco to feature prominently in the Chiefs’ game plan. If Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes’ passing numbers are only modest, then Pacheco becomes a prime candidate to win MVP — especially if he scores a touchdown.
Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-28-24 |
Lions v. 49ers OVER 51 |
|
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 12 m |
Show
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At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has given up at least 384 yards of offense in five straight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after giving up 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two or more games in a row at home. The Lions have averaged 27.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games away from home — and center Frank Ragnow will play in this game despite dealing with several injuries. San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel will also take the field in this game. He got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. The 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco generated 416.6 total Yards-Per-Game when playing at home resulting in 26.9 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-28-24 |
Lions v. 49ers -7 |
Top |
31-34 |
Loss |
-100 |
33 h 43 m |
Show
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At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wide receiver Deebo Samuel got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. The Niners have an 8-9 straight-up record in their last 17 games without Samuel — so his presence is critical. Head coach Kyle Shanahan removed him from the injury list on Friday — so I am comfortable endorsing San Francisco in this contest. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Shanahan is going to ride McCaffrey, particularly in this game with everything on the line and with two weeks between this contest and the Super Bowl. In his last four games, McCaffrey is generating 6.03 Yards-Per-Carry — and he is being used more in the passing game and averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Reception. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. When playing at home at Levi’s Stadium, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 Points-Per-Game with their defense limiting their opponents to 294.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 19.3 PPG. The addition of Chase Young has given the defense a second pass rusher to complement Nick Bosa on the other side of the defensive line. While Young does not have huge sack numbers, he has made an impact with 74 pressures on the quarterback since his arrival in November. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. Purdy now has a 4-1 straight-up record against quarterbacks drafted in the first round. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Lions have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 33 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after not allowing 100 or more yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in their last three games. Despite winning three games in a row, they got outgained in each of those contests — and they have an unsustainable -58.3 net YPG clip during that stretch despite all three of those games being played at home. Injuries on the offensive line are a significant concern since this was one of the team’s biggest strengths. Underrated left guard Jonah Jackson is out for this game which means undrafted journeyman Kayode Awosokika gets the start after the Lions picked up off waivers after Philadelphia cut him in the preseason. Center Frank Ragnow will play despite several injuries slowing him down — but he is far from 100% and did not have the same push-off last week after injuring his ankle and knee against the Buccaneers. Now the Lions go back on the road for the first time in 2024 where they got outscored in the regular season. Jared Goff was much more effective when playing at Ford Field where he posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating while completing 70.1% of his passes and averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt — but on the road, his QBR drops to 107.9 while completing 64.8% of his passes and averaging just 7.1 YPA. Detroit is playing with house money after winning playoff games for the first time since 1991 — but this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 playoff games.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have a 5-3 straight-up win against teams who made the playoffs — but they have a net point differential of 0.0 by scoring and allowing 22 PPG. The 49ers have a 6-3 straight-up record against playoff teams — but they have an averaging winning margin of +9.5 PPG by scoring 28 PPG and allowing just 18.5 PPG in those contests. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-28-24 |
Chiefs +4.5 v. Ravens |
|
17-10 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 28 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City comes into this game with momentum after upsetting the Bills on the road. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 292.5 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 17.1 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 22 of their 31 road games in the Reid as an underdog — and they covered all four of their road games as an underdog in the last three seasons. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by 21 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Ravens outrushed the Texans last week by +191 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after outrushing their last opponent by +100 or more yards. Baltimore earned the right to host this game with the best record in the AFC — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-28-24 |
Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 44.5 |
Top |
17-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
38 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half. The defending Super Bowl champions have experimented for much of the year with their revamped wide receiver corps — and this group has been plagued by drops since the opening week of the season since playing Detroit on that opening Thursday Night game. But head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have settled on their group. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat third option. Reid has made an addition by subtraction by simply removing the human drop machine that has been Kadarius Toney from the mix all together — he is banished to the injured list. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last five games excluding the Week 17 game against Las Vegas where starters were rested, he has averaged 20.4 touches per game and 106.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 20 targets and 19 receptions in his last four contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while Kansas City has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Mahomes has only been an underdog 11 times as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback — and he has led his team to 34.6 PPG in those contests with the final score finishing Over the Total 8 times by an average of +13.9 points. Kansas City has played 17 of their last 26 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Baltimore earned the right to host this game by posting the best record in the AFC — and they have generated 387.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home resulting in 32.1 PPG. Tight end Mark Andrews will play in this game after being activated from the injured list. Lamar Jackson is enjoying a Most Valuable Player season — in his last four games against teams who reached the plays this year, he has 12 touchdown passes to just one interception with another 245 rushing yards on 35 carries including two more touchdowns.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these defenses are great — but both can be run on. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the league by allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City ranks 25th in the NFL by allowing 4.5 YPC. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or more points nine times — and the Ravens have allowed 19 or more points eight times. If both teams reach those point thresholds, the game script should ensure we reach our Over. Kansas City has played 13 of their 16 games in the Reid era Over the Total when they are an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to seven points. Finally, there is a 70% chance of rain for this game — and that helps both offenses since it slows down pass rushers in pursuit and helps mobile quarterbacks. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-24 |
Chiefs +3 v. Bills |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: I appreciate what this Bills team has done in the second half of the season — and after enduring a torturous campaign last year where they were dealt emotional challenge after emotional challenge while still trying to get over psychic trauma of losing in the final nine seconds to this Chiefs team in the playoffs — this team has a better perspective that a season is a marathon rather than a sprint. If both teams were at full health and playing on equal rest, I might have invested in Buffalo in this showdown. But I do not like this situation for the Bills — especially when now laying up to a field goal. The Chiefs have two extra days of rest for this contest after completing their win against the Dolphins last Saturday afternoon as opposed to the Bills finishing their game with the Steelers two days later given the postponement from the Sunday kickoff due to weather. Then there is the Buffalo injury list with various maladies beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo. The Bills come on a six-game winning streak — but too often they perform better after facing recent adversity. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they have covered the spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. No one embodies this maddening inconsistency than Josh Allen who is responsible for 41 turnovers in the last two seasons including 22 this year. The Chiefs offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But what should not be underestimated about this Kansas City team is the defense under Steve Spagnuolo who has won four Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator for the New York Giants and now the Chiefs. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 straight Unders after not allowing more than nine points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games coming off a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in their last two games. Led by Mahomes, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs will also be looking to avenge two straight losses to the Bills since their epic 42-36 victory in the 2022 playoffs — they last played on December 10th last month with Buffalo pulling off a 20-17 upset victory as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven or more points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-24 |
Chiefs v. Bills OVER 45.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo raced out to a 21-7 halftime lead against the Steelers last week — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding a halftime lead of 14 or more points in their last contest. The Bills have also played 30 of their last 43 home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 14 and 17 points — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Injuries are beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo — but their offense is clicking. Running back James Cook has 139 touches in his last seven games while averaging 5 yards per touch. Quarterback Josh Allen has added 16 touchdowns with his legs — and his willingness to take off and run adds an extra dimension to the explosiveness of their offense as evidenced by his 52-yard touchdown run last week. The Bills are generating 372.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 29.7 Points-Per-Game at home. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Chiefs' offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But the defense will not be at full strength with nose tackle Derrick Nnadi out with a tricep injury and linebacker William Gay questionable with a neck issue. Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.
FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-24 |
Bucs +7 v. Lions |
|
23-31 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-8) has won two games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 32-9 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Monday. Detroit (13-5) has won straight games as well as four of their last five games after their 24-23 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions earned their first playoff victory since 1991 with their triumph last week. How did they respond? Cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson called out Tampa Bay Baker Mayfield by suggesting how good the Buccaneers wide receivers could be if they had a better quarterback. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took two Zoom interviews on Friday for potential head coaching jobs. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn took an interview as well. These are the actions of a losing franchise. Head coach Dan Campbell can declare he has changed the culture — but talk is cheap. He still lost his cool a few weeks ago in the game at Dallas by recklessly doubling down by going for the win even though it was fourth and seven (then fourth and four after a Cowboys penalty) after suffering the cosmic injustice of a bad call from the referees after the Lions too clever for its own good tackle-eligible receiver play. You know what teams that have won a playoff game since the final years of the George Herbert Walker Bush administration all have in common: a long list of bad officiating calls that went against them. Get over it. Well, Detroit did — they defeated Matthew Stafford last week in the Prodigal Son’s return to the Motor City for the first time since the blockbuster trade that sent him to Los Angeles. It is as if the Lions won their Super Bowl last Sunday — so cue the job interviews and the trash talk. And I see this as a gigantic letdown spot — especially at this number of laying close to a touchdown. As it is, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win three points or less. They have also fueled to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games at home after no-cover win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Moving forward, Gardner-Johnson might want to worry about his own play rather than opposing quarterbacks — the Lions have allowed at least 323 passing yards in four straight games while surrendering 353 passing Yards-Per-Game during that stretch. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after giving up at least 275 passing yards in three or more games in a row. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the postseason. Now here comes a gritty Tampa Bay team that comes in under the radar. With cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamal Dean healthy again, the Buccaneers may have the best defense in the league. They have held their last three opponents to just 261.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 10.7 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in Red Zone Defense and tied for fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. On the other side of the ball, second-year running back Rachaad White has emerged by rushing for at least 75 yards in five of his last seven games. With wide receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs still have star power that are holdovers from their Super Bowl championship team three years ago. And then Mayfield is at his best when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder rather than with five national television commercial spots. In his last seven games, Mayfield has 16 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay will have revenge on their minds as well after losing at home to the Lions by a 20-6 score on October 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Detroit NBC-TV Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-24 |
Packers v. 49ers -9.5 |
|
21-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th. Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Let’s talk weather first — there is a 75% chance of rain with winds gusting up to 16 miles per hour. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled in the rain earlier in the season at Cleveland when he completed only 12 of 27 passes for 125 yards with only one touchdown pass and an interception in the Niners’ 19-17 loss to the Browns. There are plenty of caveats from that situation. Cleveland’s defense was playing as good as any team in the league at that point of the season — especially at home. Both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got injured and left that game — and San Francisco’s offense is much different without either one of those players. And Purdy still orchestrated a late drive to put his team in position to win the game but rookie kicker Jake Moody missed the potential game-winning kick as time expired. Weather is tricky to assess — while the kicking game could be impacted by the wind and rain, the pass rush slows down in wet conditions. The books have not adjusted the point spread nor the Total given these weather updates — so I am not persuaded to change my side assessment. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset loss to an NFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning vie or six of their last seven games. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game. They are outscoring their guests by +12.2 Points-Per-Game when playing at home — and they are outgaining them by +134.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Green Bay pulled off the shocker last week in Dallas despite surrendering 510 yards and getting outgained by -95 net yards. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after giving up 500 or more yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning four of their last five games. Now Green Bay stays on the road on a short week and travels west to play the 49ers. The Packers are getting outgained on the road by -12.0 net YPG. Green Bay is very vulnerable on defense. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also suspect— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week. They allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.7% of their passes against them — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. Head coach Matt LaFleur was aggressive with his play-calling last week against the Cowboys — and his offense has generated 7.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games. But Green Bay has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 6.0 or more YPP under LaFleur.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-24 |
Packers v. 49ers OVER 50 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers' offense has blossomed in the second half of the season with the light having turned on for Jordan Love and his understanding of head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Love was forcing the ball earlier in the season — but perhaps the midseason injury to wide receiver Christian Watson was a blessing in disguise since it helped coax him to rely on simply feeding the ball to the open receiver. With rookies Jaylen Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft along with second-year pros Romeo Doubs and Watson, the Packers have one of the best groups of wide receivers and tight ends in the league. Love has thrown 21 touchdown passes with only one interception in his last nine games. The play-action passing attack has been devastating — Green Bay leads the NFL in total offense and third down offense in the last month. They have scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while generating 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game with the offense gaining at least 415 yards in each contest. Credit goes to LaFleur who finally is seeing the true vision of his offense unleashed after having to make compromise after compromise previously with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after pulling off an upset win. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs after averaging at least 375 YPG in their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road against fellow NFC rivals. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense that has some weaknesses. The Niners' pass defense is not nearly as good since the season-ending injury to safety Talanga Hufanga in mid-November. San Francisco ranks 21st in the NFL by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and they are just middle of the pack ranking 13th in the league by giving up 214.2 passing YPG. In a four-game stretch from December 3rd through December 25th, the 49ers allowed 246 passing YPG with opponents exposing their pass defense. Teams can also run on the Niners — they rank 14th in the league by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry. But the Packers are vulnerable on defense as well. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also vulnerable— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week leading Dallas to a whopping 510 total yards in a losing effort. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game on offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 5 of their 8 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5-9.5 points. The Packers generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. And in Green Bay’s last 37 road games against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes, they have played 25 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t think these conditions warrant getting off the Over (nor taking the Under) — and the oddsmakers have not adjusted the line so I remain comfortable with the Over. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-24 |
Texans v. Ravens -9 |
Top |
10-34 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 17-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on January 6th. Houston (11-7) has won three games in a row after their 45-14 upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Houston last week — but their triumph last week likely sets them up for a big emotional letdown now. As it is, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit upset win. The final score is deceiving since Houston only outgained the Browns by +32 net yards. Joe Flacco threw two pick-sixes in the second half to account for 14 of the Texans' points in the end. Houston only managed 14 first downs and generated only 356 yards of offense in the win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has been a much better team at home where they have a 7-3 record — but they are just 4-4 on the road where they are getting outscored by -1.8 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -16.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is a much better quarterback at this point of the season than he was in Week One when he played on the road against the Ravens in a 25-9 loss. But Stroud has not nearly been as effective when playing on the road this season. Stroud posted a 108.3 Quarterback Rating in his ten games at home where he completed 65.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes while averaging 310.8 passing YPG on 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. But in his eight games on the road, his QBR drops to 91.5 as he completes only 62.0% of his passes with only six touchdown passes while averaging 231.7 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set from 42.5-45. Baltimore earned the luxury to rest their starters two weeks ago with the number seed in the AFC locked up — so they are rested and ready for this matchup. As it is, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Texans have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season — they rank last in the league by allowing seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And while their run defense has improved, they did surrender 227 rushing yards to the Colts two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of play-action pass plays from Lamar Jackson as well since Houston ranks 30th in the league action play-action pass plays. Baltimore outscores their opponents by +14.1 PPG and outgains them by +80.0 YPG when playing at home. They generate 391.3 YPG resulting in 31.9 PPG at home. They also hold their guests to just 311.3 total YPG resulting in 17.8 PPG. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: There may not be a defensive coordinator in the NFL that is more familiar with Stroud than Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald who probably scouted him daily for an entire year when Stroud was a junior at Ohio State and Macdonald was the Michigan defensive coordinator looking to break their long-losing streak to the Buckeyes three years ago. Macdonald was able to update his book on Stroud for their opening game this season — and he will be well aware of his improvements with the deep ball now. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding opposing QBs to just a 74 Passer Rating — and they only allow 192 passing YPG. The Texans average 7.3 YPA in the passing game — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-24 |
Eagles v. Bucs +3 |
|
9-32 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles have devolved into a big mess with chaos running through the organization. After beginning the season with Super Bowl aspirations, the team has collapsed — and the finger-pointing is rampant. The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. There is a school of thought that the postseason could refocus this team — but it is also possible that the team fails to provide maximum effort in this lost season with coaching changes seeming on the table. Resiliency has not been a characteristic of this team recently. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss against an NFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or more games in a row. And while they got outgained by -116 net yards by the Giants, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants. The Eagles stay on the road where they are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. While the Buccaneers' defense does not get talked about enough, they may have the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG when playing at home — and they have held their last three opponents to just 271.3 total YPG resulting in 11.7 PPG. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers lost at home to the Eagles by a 25-11 score as a 5-point underdog back on September 25th when both of these teams were playing under much different circumstances. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss of 14 or more points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-24 |
Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
9-32 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. With running back D’Andre Swift returning to action tonight after he was out with an injury — look for the Eagles to lean heavily on him and their rushing attack to keep their defense off the field. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points to an NFC East rival. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. Philadelphia has played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two or more games in a row including four of those last five circumstances. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. On the road, the Philly defense has played better as they have held their home hosts to 329.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 21.4 Points-Per-Game. But the Eagles are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Tampa Bay has played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are generating 317.1 total YPG resulting in 17.6 PPG — but they are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Eagles have played 5 straight Unders in January. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-24 |
Steelers v. Bills -9.5 |
|
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the xBuffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win on the road against an AFC North rival. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game while leading the offense to 473 total yards — and Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG which has helped them post a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +98.3 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers will be without their best defensive player T.J. Watt given his MCL knee injury. They lost six of their seven games when he was out with an injury last season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Buffalo CBS-TV Special with the Buffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-24 |
Steelers v. Bills UNDER 39 |
Top |
17-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after a win against an AFC North rival. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games after a point spread win, Pittsburgh has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game — and Buffalo has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 300 or more passing yards. And while they averaged 6.39 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-24 |
Rams v. Lions -3 |
|
23-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit comes into this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Lions have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. This Lions team has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace. Detroit will play before a rabid crowd tonight that has not hosted a playoff game in the downtown area since the Bobby Layne era (their last playoff game took place at the Silverdome about an hour north in Pontiac). Detroit is generating 408.8 total YPG at home resulting in 30.5 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +8.9 PPG. The Lions have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win by three points or less against an NFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games following a win on the road against a divisional foe. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-24 |
Rams v. Lions OVER 51.5 |
Top |
23-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-24 |
Packers v. Cowboys OVER 49.5 |
|
48-32 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they generated 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They have also played 6 straight Overs at home after a double-digit victory. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win at home. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games. Their offense has generated 432 and 470 yards in their last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Packers have only given up 19 combined points in their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total. And while Dallas averages only 0.9 turnovers per game, Green Bay has played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against opponents who do not average more than one turnover per game. Unfortunately for Green Bay, their secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 8* NFL Green Bay-Dallas Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-24 |
Packers v. Cowboys -7 |
Top |
48-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they outgained them by +260 net yards while generating 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after beating a fellow NFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional rival. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning two of their last three games. They limited Washington to just 50 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they have been dominant this season with an 8-0 record along with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The smartest thing head coach Mike McCarthy did in the offseason was to clean up the Cowboys’ pre-snap routine with Dak Prescott’s verbal cue of “here we go” indication the snap is coming soon. The process seems to have given the offense both a comfortable rhythm and an identity — and the results speak for themselves as they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense also shines a home where they are holding their opponents to just 305.8 YPG and 15.9 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home including six of their eight home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games against fellow NFC opponents. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at Lambeau Field in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning at home in their last game. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. The Green Bay defense has held their last two opponents to 192 and 211 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. The secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month. Running back A.J. Dillon is also doubtful with a thumb and neck leaving the running back duties to Aaron Jones. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +10.4 net YPG this season — and they got outgained by -2.7 net YPG when playing on the road. They have been fortunate to win five of their last six games decided by one-scoring possession.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +11.4 net PPG while generating 29.9 PPG. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against opponents who are scoring 29 or more PPG. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-24 |
Dolphins v. Chiefs -3.5 |
|
7-26 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday. Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins had an opportunity to claim the second seed and face the Bills once again in South Beach this week — but their loss last Sunday night puts them very much behind the eight ball in the Wild Card round. It’s bad enough for them that they played the late game on Sunday night and now play on the road on a short week against the Chiefs. And the weather conditions in Kansas City are perhaps their worst nightmare. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. Miami is also a M*A*S*H unit right now with a bevy of injuries headlined by Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard out on defense — and they had to sign veterans off the street this week to fill out their defensive end depth chart (and they are expected to play tonight). Head coach Mike McDaniel is optimistic wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. Now it is dangerous to discount a team in wounded animal mode like the Dolphins are — but this sentiment helped motivate my backing them last Sunday night at home in that crucial game against Buffalo. Perhaps they win (or at least cover the point spread as the home underdog) if not for the Bills’ 96-yard punt return for a touchdown in the second half that changed the momentum of that game. But the fact remains that the Dolphins did not score in the second half while getting outgained by -198 net yards with the offense only generating 275 total yards. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 road games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last contest. The Dolphins' defense is faltering lately as they have given up 434.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. Kansas City has experience playing in this cold weather — especially in the postseason. Patrick Mahomes commented that the practices in these conditions are worse because they do not have the benefit of heaters on the sidelines. Mahomes also throws a crisper ball than Tagovailoa bites through the wind — so the Chiefs should have a net edge in the passing game. Playing at Arrowhead Stadium already gives Kansas City a big advantage as it is — they are outscoring their guests by +6.2 net PPG and outgaining them by +106 net YPG due to their outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by three points or less. And while they have not allowed more than 20 points in five straight games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-24 |
Dolphins v. Chiefs UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
7-26 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-24 |
Browns v. Texans +2.5 |
Top |
14-45 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) enters the postseason coming off their 23-19 victory at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (11-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has been playing good football down the stretch with seven victories in their last ten games — and they won a de-facto playoff game on the road last week in their victory against the Colts. Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to impress for this team as he completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes — and he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The rookie does not make many mistakes with only five interceptions this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his last 144 throws. Winning the AFC South title earned them the right to host a playoff game at home at NRG Stadium where they had a 6-3 record this season. They outscored their guests by +4.3 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +36.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Houston has underrated defense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans — they held their last three opponents to just 321.7 YPG resulting in 19.3 PPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland rested key starters last week after having already clinched an AFC wildcard spot. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Browns surrendered 183 rushing yards to the Bengals last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a surprise for this team as the fifth starting quarterback they have needed this season. But injuries on both sides of the ball may be taking a toll. Cleveland was a much better team when playing at home this season where they finished 8-1 while holding their opponents to 13.9 PPG. But they were just 3-5 in their eight games on the road while getting outscored by -5.2 net PPG due to their defense giving up 29.6 PPG. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Browns’ 36-22 victory in Houston as a 3-point road favorite back on December 24th. Stroud did not play in that game as he was still in concussion protocol — and Flacco outplayed Davis Mills and Case Keenum in what was his fourth start for Cleveland at the time. Flacco did throw two interceptions in that game — and his eight interceptions in his five starts could be a canary in the coal mine in this rematch. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 28 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss where they gave up 35 or more points. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-08-24 |
Washington v. Michigan OVER 55.5 |
|
13-34 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total between the Washington Huskies (287) and the Michigan Wolverines (288) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies generated 532 yards of offense last week against a Longhorns team that allowed only 17.5 Points-Per-Game and 322.5 total Yards-Per-Game at the time. But the Washington defense gave up 490 yards against Texas and almost blew the game in some anxious late moments. Head coach Kalen DeBoer will play tonight’s game aggressively — and he will ride on the talent of his quarterback Michael Penix. The Huskies survived another shootout in their 34-31 victory against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. Washington generated 7.6 Yards-Per-Play against the Longhorns — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Over the Total this season after averaging 6.75 or more YPP in their last game. One of the reasons why the Huskies offense is so successful is that they do not turn the ball over — they have not committed more than one turnover in six straight games. Washington has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not committing more than one turnover in five or more games in a row. Michigan has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 19 of their last 25 road games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. Their victory against Alabama last week came on the heels of their 26-0 victory against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game as a 22-point favorite — and the Wolverines have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field as the favorite — and Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 20* CFB Washington-Michigan ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total between the Washington Huskies (287) and the Michigan Wolverines (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-08-24 |
Washington v. Michigan -4 |
Top |
13-34 |
Win
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100 |
60 h 27 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan survived their sloppiest game of the season — and probably the worst special teams performance in the Jim Harbaugh era — to rally and beat the Crimson Tide. The Wolverines muffed a punt in the first quarter that led to Alabama scoring a touchdown. They flubbed an extra point and then missed a field goal to spot Alabama another four points. And then Michigan almost suffered their most embarrassing loss in the history of their athletic program — putting Chris Webber’s time out to rest — when punt returner Jake Thaw muffed that punt with under two minutes to go which almost handed the Crimson Tide the winning score. But Thaw salvaged the moment with a great play by recovering the ball and avoiding the safety to keep his team alive for overtime. The surprising aspect to those events is that the Wolverines have been outstanding with their special teams this season — they ranked fourth in the nation in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for special teams before that game and still rank seventh afterward . I suspect that was a nightmare outlier that will not be repeated. Moving to their matchup with the Huskies, this Michigan program has been built to compete against an explosive pass-first offense like what Washington has since it closely resembles Ohio State under head coach Ryan Day — and the Wolverines have dominated the Buckeyes for three straight seasons. While the Ohio State team this season did not have a quarterback as nearly as accurate and effective as the Huskies’ Michael Penix, the Wolverines successfully dealt with the Buckeyes’ CJ Stroud who was throwing to at least two future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. Michigan has two high draft picks cornerback Will Johnson and slot corner Mike Sainristil to address Washington’s outstanding trio of wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been great in deploying sophisticated blitz schemes coming from all angles like the Wolverines’ previous defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is now executing with the Baltimore Ravens. After sacking Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times last week, they have 16 sacks in their last four games. The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the nation — but redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford is a weak link at center. Senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was considered Michigan’s best defensive lineman before the season started but he may have been overtaken by sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham. If — and when — the Wolverines establish pressure in the middle, then Penix may experience more disruption than he has all season, especially since the inside pass rush is most lethal to quarterbacks. If these contests between elite teams are decided by who wins the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, Michigan has the edge after proving themselves against Ohio State and now Alabama. Schematically, the Wolverines threw a wrinkle at the Crimson Tide by deploying three wide receivers and then relying heavily on pre-snap motion to divorce the Alabama defenders from their coaches' instructions. Nick Saban lamented afterward that Michigan’s reliance on the traditional huddle actually hurt his coaching since it delayed the deployment of their scheme and afforded him not enough time to communicate adjustments to his defensive players on the fly. Washington’s defense is not at that level — but the Wolverines returning to their base two tight-end formation will allow them to play heavy while being comfortable using tempo and going to a passing attack since both their tight ends, Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner, will get drafted into the NFL because of their pass-catching skills. Michigan’s bread-and-butter is inside zone rushing plays — and the Huskies went into the playoff ranking 132nd in Opponent Offensive Line Years and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate. Running back Blake Corum (and Donovan Edwards, little used versus Alabama only because of the game script and the 11 personnel wrinkle) is poised for a big game. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. One of the underrated aspects of this Michigan team is their lack of mistakes (making the special teams blunders on Monday such an aberration). They have only committed eight turnovers all season after the one blunder with the punt return against Alabama (with their only multi-turnover game occurring in September against Bowling Green) — and they have not committed a turnover in nine of their games this season. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Furthermore, Michigan ranks second in the nation by committing only 40 penalties all season and averaging just 26.2 penalty Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who do not commit more than 42 penalty YPG. And while the Wolverines led the nation by allowing only 243.1 YPG, they held their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who do not allow more than 4.5 YPP. I appreciate — and I have spent a few days considering — that Penix is similar to Joe Burrow whose transcendent talents can elevate everyone around him. On the other hand, the power of the Regression Gods is usually more powerful in the end — so I worry about the Huskies perfect 8-0 record in one-possession games being a bubble that is about to burst. While I think the Huskies' defense is underrated, one cannot hide around the fact that they allow 407.4 YPG — and they have given up 414.0 YPG in their last three games. The margin for error is so small for Penix — and Michigan has five defensive touchdowns and relied on their special teams to turn games in their favor (even after Monday’s debacle). Washington surrendered 498 yards against the Longhorns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last game. They almost gave the game away to Texas in those final few minutes which questions their championship mettle. While they will come into the game hopeful and confident, they lack experience at this level — and that makes a difference against a Wolverines that made winning this game their goal after losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. And then there is the injury to running back Dillon Johnson who could not stand on his injured foot/leg at the end of the game on Monday. He is listed as probable in the National Championship, but if he is not close to 100 or re-injures this lingering ongoing for him late in the season, then the Huskies will be left one-dimensional since his 222 carries overwhelms his backup, freshman Tybo Rogers’ 43 carries.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field when favored. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-07-24 |
Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 48 |
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21-14 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing vUnder the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by six points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Buffalo has played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where their 24.3 Points-Per-Game scoring average is -2.3 PPG below their season average. The Bills have played 12 of their last 16 games — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 35 or more points in their last contest. And while they gave up 491 yards of offense last week against the Ravens, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Miami offense is undermanned tonight with both running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle not expecting to play. But the Dolphins' defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins lost on the road to the Bills by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a loss by 14 or more points to their opponent. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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