At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (109) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (110) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Seattle (16-3) has won nine games in a row after their 31-27 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point favorite on January 25th. New England (17-3) has won six games in a row after their 10-7 win at Denver as a 3.5-point favorite two Sundays ago. The Super Bowl is being played on a neutral field at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: As I watched both conference championship games, my immediate reaction was to smash Seattle. My considerable concerns about the Patriots' regular season schedule were not assuaged during their playoff run — and I think Drake Maye is overrated, given his MVP considerations after watching him in three playoff games. The lookahead line for this potential matchup had the Seahawks as a -3/-3.5 point favorite. When Seattle opened at -4.5, the urgency to invest in them dampened since they were far off a key number — I had the luxury to wait (and the objective is to get it right, rather than simply get it in quickly). Sharp and public money coming in initially on the Seahawks waved a potential red flag. But it should not be underestimated how much uncertainty the books encounter with this matchup. How much information is there to be gleaned from the Patriots' win in a second-half blizzard against a backup quarterback who had not played in two seasons? There are other questions that deserve consideration. How much better is the New England defense with defensive end Milton Williams and cornerback Christian Gonzalez fully healthy (and together) again? Williams missed five games late in the regular season before returning for the season finale. Gonzalez missed the first three games of the season. Additionally, how big of an impact is the season-ending injury to Seattle running back Zach Charbonnet? Furthermore, while Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold played great against the Rams in the NFC championship, does it really make sense to double down on him after perhaps the best game of his life? I thought I would make a decision, invest, and release my conclusions by midweek (which became Thursday) — and then Seattle’s rookie safety, Nick Emmanwori, got injured in practice. He is the key piece that unlocks this Seahawks defense since head coach Mike Macdonald can play a 4-2-5 base formation with two high safeties without adjusting for running situations, since the former South Carolina star is great against both the run and in pass coverage. So, since I have already gone this far into the second week, I want to make sure I am comfortable in all my answers before committing (as always). In reverse order, Emmanwori’s absence in practice to end the week appears precautionary as he is listed as probable with him declaring he expects to play despite tweaking his ankle. On Darnold, the discourse bothers me so much since it is so much all-or-nothing “bust” or “GOAT” hyperbole. Unquestionably, he has played better under pressure in this postseason, which had been his main weakness in the past. Under pressure this postseason, Darnold had a 102.6 Passer Rating, going 9 of 19 while averaging 9.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Against blitzing in these playoffs, he has a Passer Rating of 154.2 by completing 12 of 17 passes for 139 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Even if I am not ready to lobby for Darnold to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, he has now outdueled the league MVP, Matthew Stafford, in two straight games since December 18th. He is as confident as he has ever been — and everyone should get some benefit of the doubt of getting better on a learning curve. I was very impressed with the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator’s game calling against the Rams — not only putting Darnold in a position to succeed but also scheming wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba into advantageous situations. I like Darnold over Maye — and I like the Seattle defense and special teams over those Patriots’ units, so even if some warts reappear, I remain very comfortable with the Seahawks. I prefer them if Charbonnet was available to offer a change of pace — but Walker was a bell-cow running back in college who excelled in that role for Michigan State against top-level competition. He is fine in short-yardage — but Kubiak will turn to his A.J. Barner short-yardage packages when needed. Walker getting at least 15 carries offers more opportunities to unlock his unique explosiveness. He has 33 rushes of at least 10 yards and played with tons of energy as the bell-cow against the Rams. With two weeks' rest, he could handle even 25 or more carries. Regarding the improvement of the New England defense, I do think it is legitimate. However, as I will detail below, I don’t think there is enough in the recent resume to conclude that the unit has become the 1986 Bears. For me, it is too much of a leap of faith to then conclude that unit will overwhelm the Seattle offense that has scored 36.0 Points-Per-Game in the playoffs. Finally, to answer the question about line movement and where the money is going, it has become fishy that the line remains -4.5 for the Seahawks despite the handle on their side. It sure began to look like the books were expecting late money on the Patriots — and that is exactly what is happening as I track the DraftKing numbers. So, I am not spooked by the line nor the money movement on this game.

My main argument is that I remain steadfast in my skepticism regarding how good this New England team is on both sides of the football. Not only did the Patriots enjoy the easiest regular season schedule this year according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN), but their opponents represented the third-easiest slate of games in hindsight, going all the way to 1978. They set an NFL record by playing 14 opponents that ended the season with a losing record. Only Pittsburgh (in Week Two) and then their pair of games against Buffalo presented opponents that finished the season with a winning percentage over .500 — and the Steelers did not exactly sport the Greatest Show on Turf with their offense. Eleven of their 14 regular season victories came against quarterbacks that were either rookies, backups, or starters who eventually got benched. Quinn Ewers, Brady Cook, Justin Fields, Dillon Gabriel, Spencer Rattler, Tyler Huntley — so I am taking all the Patriots’ defensive numbers with a grain of salt — and there are plenty of red flags when looking at the efficiency numbers. Their Red Zone defense ranked 31st in the NFL. Their Run Defense DVOA ranked fifth in the league through the first nine weeks — but that unit dropped to 18th in that metric since (before the AFC championship game blizzard). And then let’s contextualize their three playoff victories. The Los Angeles Chargers were the lowest-rated team of all the AFC squads that made the postseason — and the score was still 9-3 with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter before New England scored their final touchdown. It was a prehistoric rock fight before the Chargers’ injuries on the offensive line were simply too much for them to overcome. The Patriots were 0-5 in the Red Zone, which continued their mediocrity inside their opponent’s 20-yard line, where they rank 15th in DVOA. New England only managed 248 total yards. Then, in their 28-16 victory against Houston, they only managed 248 total yards in a game where Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud hit rock bottom with four interceptions. New England deserves some credit for disrupting Stroud — but those who watched the game also know their eye-test suggests he was a disaster. That leaves us with their victory against the Broncos, where they scored their only touchdown after backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham’s amateur mistake of trying to force an incomplete pass instead of taking the sack, which resulted in a devastating turnover deep in their end. Denver head coach Sean Payton had previously passed up an easy field goal attempt to make the score 10-0. The Patriots secured a 23-yard field goal in the snow midway through the third quarter — and stopping a backup quarterback in a blizzard secured their place in the Super Bowl, despite them gaining only 206 yards. Sorry, not impressed. Frankly, in a transition in the NFL, I suspect Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore all beat this team. And that is all before my thoughts on Drake Maye. 

I’m not a hater. Maye is a fine second-year quarterback with an extremely bright future. But his MVP case was on the back of (a) getting to play a slew of losing teams and (b) the lack of compelling alternatives in this transition year in the league. Maye’s baseline numbers against the Chargers looked solid — but his Success Rate in the passing game of 42% was the lowest since early November. He needs to send Stroud birthday cards as a perpetual “thank you” since that nightmare performance offered him cover for his four fumbles and an interception in that game. That performance was telling since it was the first time all season he played against a top-eight defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). And then encountering a Denver defense that ranks fifth in Defensive DVOA. Maye should probably thank Mother Nature, too, for the second-half blizzard giving him an excuse for his 10-of-21 performance with just 86 passing yards. Even if that was just first-half numbers rather than the full game, it would be underwhelming. Overall, in the postseason, Maye completed only 56% of his passes and averaged 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 70% completion percentage and 8.0 YPA mark in the regular season. Perhaps most concerning, he was sacked five times in each of his three playoff games. Blame playing great competition. Blame the weather. But this may simply be the case of the inevitable reappearance of the Regression Gods. Maye’s 31 touchdown passes and eight interceptions in the regular season need to be tempered by the deeper metrics that indicate he only had 27 “Big-Time Throws” and committed 17 Turnover-Worthy Plays. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell deserves some of the blame for the sacks after getting exposed in the postseason. Texans defensive end Will Anderson made him look silly against a pass rusher who can quickly convert speed to power — and now here comes the Seahawks’ Dexter Lawrence! Perhaps the concerns about his smaller hands before he got drafted were valid after all. Now the Patriots face a Seattle defense that ranks number one in Total DVOA, Rushing DVOA, and Passing DVOA — and with two weeks to prepare. Ultimately, what really worries me is that Maye has overseen victories in the postseason that had less to do with his efforts than those of the rest of his team. Is he ready to deliver in “gotta have it” moments when the pressure is on? Darnold’s resume addressing that question is much better.

FINAL TAKE: Just some final comparative numbers. Taking the cumulative win percentage of New England’s opponents this season, there have been only two teams to win the Super Bowl with a lower number than their -4.49 mark. On the other hand, only 11 of the 120 teams playing in the Super Bowl had a more difficult challenge than Seattle’s +1.61 mark. Eight of those teams then won the Super Bowl. Lastly, not only do the Seahawks have the best net DVOA in the NFL this season, they possess the sixth-best net DVOA mark in NFL history since 1978 (tied with the 1996 Brett Favre/Reggie White/Desmond Howard Green Bay Packers). So, it’s not only how suspicious I am about the Patriots, but also I am compelled by the possibility that this Seattle team may truly be historic. This analysis does not take into account the points were are laying — but the Super Bowl winner is also 50-7-2 ATS through the first 59 Super Bowls, so the winner almost always covers. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (109) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (110) in the Super Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (109) and the New England Patriots (110) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Seattle (16-3) has won nine games in a row after their 31-27 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point favorite on January 25th. New England (17-3) has won six games in a row after their 10-7 win at Denver as a 3.5-point favorite two Sundays ago. The Super Bowl is being played on a neutral field at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This contest features two defensive head coaches who mentored under fantastic game-manager head coaches who shared at least one main thing in common: wait for the dope head coach on the other side of the field to panic and start making risky decisions. Bill Belichick was a master of this — and he learned from Bill Parcells. While New England head coach Mike Vrabel can be aggressive, he appreciates this mentality coming from the Parcells/Belichick coaching tree. Seattle head coach Mike MacDonald has been the defensive coordinator for both John Harbaugh with the Baltimore Ravens and Jim Harbaugh with the Michigan Wolverines. While both Harbaugh brothers can be aggressive at times, they learned from their father, Jack, the value of not being the first team to start making mistakes. With both teams featuring young quarterbacks new to this ultimate stage, I expect both teams to be relatively cautious, waiting for the other side to make the first mistake. It is telling that both teams are leaning on the run. In their last ten games, the Seahawks are running the ball in 51.3% of their snaps from center. The Patriots are running the ball in 51.6% of their offensive plays. For Seattle, their dirty little secret is that they got exposed in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, who did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations regarding the heavy personnel multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they have ranked 18th in that metric since (before the NFC championship game). Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he has since dropped to 18th (before the NFC championship game). The lack of a reliable second target after the sublime Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a problem. Darnold ranks 29th in Passing DVOA to non-JSN targets in the second half of the season, even removing sacks or his throwaways. The New England defense is underrated now that defensive end Milton Williams and cornerback Christian Gonzalez are fully healthy and together again. Williams missed five games late in the regular season before returning for the season finale. Gonzalez missed the first three games of the season. This unit is peaking at the right time of the season. But Vrabel has his own reasons not ask too much of quarterback Drake Maye. Overall, in the postseason, Maye completed only 56% of his passes and averaged 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 70% completion percentage and 8.0 YPA mark in the regular season. Perhaps most concerning, he was sacked five times in each of his three playoff games. Blame playing great competition. Blame the weather. But this may simply be the case of the inevitable reappearance of the Regression Gods. Maye’s 31 touchdown passes and eight interceptions in the regular season need to be tempered by the deeper metrics that indicate he only had 27 “Big-Time Throws” and committed 17 Turnover-Worthy Plays. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell deserves some of the blame for the sacks after getting exposed in the postseason. Texans defensive end Will Anderson made him look silly against a pass rusher who can quickly convert speed to power — and now here comes the Seahawks’ Dexter Lawrence! Perhaps the concerns about his smaller hands before he got drafted were valid after all. Now the Patriots face a Seattle defense that ranks number one in Total DVOA, Rushing DVOA, and Passing DVOA — and with two weeks to prepare. 

FINAL TAKE: In the last 52 NFL games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range involving one team that comes off a game where neither team scored more than 14 points, facing a team that comes off a win by six points or less, those games finished Under the Total in 37 of those 52 circumstances. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (109) and the New England Patriots (110) in the Super Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (103) and the Seattle Seahawks (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-5) has won three games in a row after their 20-17 victory in overtime at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (15-3) has won eight games in a row after their 41-6 victory against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks continue to flex their muscles after holding the 49ers to just 236 yards of offense last week. They have not allowed an explosive play (10+ yards rushing or 20+ yards passing) in three straight games. While this unit has not registered a sack in their two previous games against the Rams this season using a four-man front — I suspect that may compel head coach Mike Macdonald to turn to a three-man front and use that extra defender in pass coverage (to double-team Puka Nacua?). Seattle gave up 585 yards against the Rams in their 38-37 win in overtime on December 18th, but Nick Emmanwori, Riq Woolen, and Coby Bryant either did not play in that game or could not finish the game because of injuries. Their formula for success in this third encounter with Los Angeles will be to run the football after rushing for 175 and 180 yards in their last two games. Seattle’s offense is not at full strength without running back Zach Charbonnet after his season-ending knee injury last week. Their top three left tackles did not practice on Thursday due to injury. The dirty little secret about Seattle is that they got exposed in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, who did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations regarding the heavy personnel multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they have ranked 18th in that metric since. Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he has since dropped to 18th. The lack of a reliable second target after the sublime Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a problem. Darnold ranks 29th in Passing DVOA to non-JSN targets in the second half of the season, even removing sacks or his throwaways. Darnold’s struggles against pressure have also been a significant issue. In his 333 passes in a clean pocket in the regular season, he has thrown for 3119 yards with 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 110.7. But in his 144 passes under pressure in the regular season, he has only 929 yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 72.4. Last week, it sure helped to score a kickoff return for a touchdown on the first play of the game to immediately change the game script for that game. Darnold only passed the ball 17 times in that route. But if there is one individual who has become the pre-eminent expert in the world in making Darnold’s world a nightmare, it is the Rams’ defensive coordinator Chris Shula (who may soon be a head coach as well). In his two games against Los Angeles this season, Darnold has thrown six interceptions and been sacked four times. And remember, it was Shula’s defense last year that sacked Darnold nine times in his nightmare playoff game against the Rams when he was playing with Minnesota. I think Darnold has gotten better this season. But the numbers don’t lie: in his nine games against teams that made the playoffs this season, he has been sacked 17 times while throwing 10 interceptions and fumbling the ball another five times. Overall, Darnold is responsible for 20 turnovers via 14 interceptions and six lost fumbles this season. The lack of a reliable second target after JSN, the loss of Charbonnet, the left tackle issues — these are not helping Darnold against a sharp defensive coordinator who seems to have his number. Seattle only generated 281 total yards of offense last week. The loss of Charbonnet not only puts more pressure on Kenneth Walker to be the bell-cow back, but it probably removes the option of using 21 (two running back) personnel, which the Seahawks have amped up to 15.5% of their snaps since Week 10 after only using that formation in 11.9% of their snaps prior. Seattle has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games, including four of those six games when playing at home. Los Angeles survived two straight playoff games decided by a field goal after their 34-31 victory at Carolina two weeks ago — and they have played 6 straight Unders under head coach Sean McVay after two straight victories by six points or less. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, while they have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. And in their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. The Rams' offense has been out of synch lately after punting the football eight times against the mediocre Bears defense last week. But while there are some concerns about Los Angeles’ defensive play in the second half of the season, safety Quentin Lake missed the final seven games of the regular season to injury before returning to action for the playoffs.  

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. These two teams have also played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing in Seattle. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (103) and the Seattle Seahawks (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (103) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-5) has won three games in a row after their 20-17 victory in overtime at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (15-3) has won eight games in a row after their 41-6 victory against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Marinating on this game all week, I am struck by the fact that most books opened the line with the Seahawks laying 2.5 points and, despite a majority of the money and bets (certainly at DraftKings, for instance) being on Seattle, the books have not budged on enticing more Rams money my moving the line to the key number of +/- 3. This is despite Los Angeles failing to cover the point spread in either of their two playoff games — and the Seahawks coming off what the Football Outsiders (now at FTN) grade as almost a “perfect” game last week in their blowout victory against the 49ers. Seattle will be without running back Zach Charbonnet after his season-ending knee injury last week. Their top three left tackles did not practice on Thursday due to injury. There are compelling situational reasons to back the Seahawks at home in this conference championship game. Ultimately, I cannot overcome the advantage Los Angeles has with their duo of head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford in this matchup. They have won a Super Bowl together. I like Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald — but this is his first playoff run. Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak seems destined to become a head coach for one of the four remaining teams looking for a new skipper. But Kubiak and quarterback Sam Darnold just don’t match up against the McVay/Stafford duo — and I suspect that will become important in “gotta have it” moments. It does not have to be all-or-nothing regarding Darnold as our 24/7 Hot Take Sports Industrial Complex suggests. If you give Darnold time, he has more than enough talent to torch opposing defenses. But he does get frenetic if pressured in the pocket. He can force things and try to do too much. It happens to most quarterbacks. It’s not a death sentence — and, yo, have I criticized Stafford over his mistakes over the years. But Stafford, at this point in his career, is more seasoned to handle this moment than Darnold is (who never played in a big game in college, outside the USC-UCLA rivalry games). If you don’t believe me, then just look at Macdonald and Kubiak’s behavior as they have asked less and less of Darnold in the second half of the season. The dirty little secret about Seattle is that they got exposed in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, who did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations regarding the heavy personnel multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they have ranked 18th in that metric since. Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he has since dropped to 18th. The lack of a reliable second target after the sublime Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a problem. Darnold ranks 29th in Passing DVOA to non-JSN targets in the second half of the season, even removing sacks or his throwaways. Darnold’s struggles against pressure have also been a significant issue. In his 333 passes in a clean pocket in the regular season, he has thrown for 3119 yards with 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 110.7. But in his 144 passes under pressure in the regular season, he has only 929 yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 72.4. Last week, it sure helped to score a kickoff return for a touchdown on the first play of the game to immediately change the game script for that game. Darnold only passed the ball 17 times in that route. But if there is one individual who has become the pre-eminent expert in the world in making Darnold’s world a nightmare, it is the Rams’ defensive coordinator Chris Shula (who may soon be a head coach as well). In his two games against Los Angeles this season, Darnold has thrown six interceptions and been sacked four times. And remember, it was Shula’s defense last year that sacked Darnold nine times in his nightmare playoff game against the Rams when he was playing with Minnesota. I think Darnold has gotten better this season. But the numbers don’t lie: in his nine games against teams that made the playoffs this season, he has been sacked 17 times while throwing 10 interceptions and fumbling the ball another five times. Overall, Darnold is responsible for 20 turnovers via 14 interceptions and six losses fumbles this season. The lack of a reliable second target after JSN, the loss of Charbonnet, the left tackle issues — these are not helping Darnold against a sharp defensive coordinator who seems to have his number. Seattle only generated 281 total yards of offense last week. The loss of Charbonnet not only puts more pressure on Kenneth Walker to be the bell-cow back, but it probably removes the option of using 21 (two running back) personnel, which the Seahawks have amped up to 15.5% of their snaps since Week 10 after only using that formation in 11.9% of their snaps prior. Seattle has the 12th man advantage at Lumen Field — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 11 games at home under Macdonald at home when the Total is set from 42.5-49. After beating the Seahawks by a 21-19 score on November 16th, they blew a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter a month later in a 38-37 loss in overtime in the rematch. Hey, we were on Seattle in that game — but I certainly noticed the Rams generating 585 total yards of offense (457 passing yards) despite being without wide receiver Davante Adams and starting right guard Kevin Dotson (who Pro Football Focus ranks as the third-best right guard in the NFL) due to injury in that game. McVay’s use of 13 (three tight end) personnel exposed the Seahawks defense. Most of the football analytics guys tend to fetishize formations — it makes them sound smart by describing what happened. McVay resorted to 13 personnel out of desperation midseason due to injuries. It worked because he has accumulated tight ends who can catch the football. Macdonald’s defenses are effective because he looks for versatile personnel who can play multiple positions that help his pre-snap disguised looks. After my due diligence review of my go-to sources regarding the specific matchup of this game, what I think most of these folks are missing is that McVay has a great opportunity to line up in 12 personnel (two tight ends) to find the best of both worlds with a healthy Adams at wide receiver subbing for (a rotating) third tight end in this rematch. With two tight ends on the field, the Seahawks still have to worry about defending the run — but with Puka Nacua, Adams, and two pass-catching tight ends, the threat Stafford presents in the passing game under those circumstances remains severe. Nacua caught 12 balls for 225 yards and two touchdowns in December — he remains a severe problem. Macdonald’s scheme works because it remains effective against the run or the pass despite changing offensive personnel. But I think McVay has the tactical advantage now with the flexibility to deploy 13, 12, or his baseline 11 (one running back, three wide receiver) personnel. And he has Stafford, who has not had a turnover-worthy play in his two games against the Seahawks this season. Seattle has only given up 44 explosive plays this season — but eight of them have come from Stafford’s arm. Furthermore, while the Seahawks have a pressure rate of 34.2% of opposing QB dropbacks which has resulted in 47 sacks, they have not sacked Stafford this season and their pressure rate against him is just 20.3% of his dropbacks. So, not only do I think McVay has the tactical edge in this third showdown contest, but he has had his way against Macdonald in their two previous games. Protecting the football is essential -- and I trust Stafford over Darnold in that regard: in the last 38 conference championship games, the team that committed fewer turnovers covered the point spread in 33 of those contests. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: In the 19 revenge opportunities under McVay, the Rams have covered the point spread in 12 of those 19 opportunities. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 rematch games when playing on the road. Lastly, the underdog has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (103) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (102) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Denver (15-3) has won three games in a row after their 33-30 victory in overtime against Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. New England (16-3) has won five games in a row after their 28-16 victory against Houston as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: New England only managed 248 total yards last week in their victory against the Texans. Head coach Mike Vrabel has to be concerned about the play of his second-year quarterback, Drake Maye. While Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is getting criticized for his mistakes last week, for some reason, Maye is getting a pass for his four fumbles and an interception. Playing against the Houston defense last week was the first time he faced a top-eight defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN) — and now he encounters a Denver defense that ranks fifth in Defensive DVOA. Maye’s 31 touchdown passes and eight interceptions in the regular season need to be tempered by the deeper metrics that indicate he only had 27 “Big-Time Throws” and committed 17 Turnover-Worthy Plays. He is taking too many sacks — he has been sacked 19 times in his last seven games, including nine in the postseason. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell deserves some of that blame after getting exposed in the last two weeks — and perhaps the concerns about his smaller hands before he got drafted are valid. Now the Patriots face the best pass rushing unit in the NFL as the Broncos led the league in both sacks (68) and Adjusted Pass Rush Rate. I also am not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when now playing in temperatures in the 20s for this game with a decent possibility of snow. Maye talks a good game about needing to embrace these conditions — but his collegiate experiences at North Carolina did not prepare him for playoff football in the snow. There were flurries in his game with Buffalo last month at Gillette Stadium — and he completed only 14 of 23 passes for 155 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception in the Bills’ comeback 35-31 victory. Last week in the cold, he only threw for 179 yards. I expect the Broncos' offensive playbook to be fully open for backup Jarrett Stidham, who takes the place of injured quarterback Bo Nix in this game. What Stidham lacks in game experience with just four NFL starts, he makes up for in a $7 million salary, which makes him almost the highest-paid backup in the league. Head coach Sean Payton must like him for that deal to have been made. He has been in the Denver organization since 2023 — and I suspect Payton has dedicated plenty of time in the offseason to how he would construct a game plan around him if Nix ever got injured. From that, Payton has the advantage of surprise in this game. Dissecting Stidham’s deeper metrics, what is interesting is that he ranks tied for 18th of the 91 quarterbacks who have taken at least 100 snaps since 2022 with an average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 8.4 yards per pass — placing him in the Jordan Love and Derek Carr territory. Don’t be surprised if the Broncos present more of a vertical threat in the passing game this afternoon. Payton seems to relish the advantage his team has playing at home in the high altitude (probably from his previous experiences as the visitor in Denver during his tenure as the head coach for the New Orleans Saints). He expects his team to be less fatigued later in the game since they are conditioned for the thinner air. Denver only gives up 287.7 total Yards-Per-Game which results in 18.9 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games since Payton took over as their head coach as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their 21 games against teams with a winning record, including five of those seven games against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games at home as an underdog played after October — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home as an underdog played in January. 10* NFL Sunday Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (102) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Denver Broncos (102). THE SITUATION: New England (16-3) has won five games in a row after their 28-16 victory against Houston as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (15-3) has won three games in a row after their 33-30 victory in overtime against Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I expect the Broncos' offensive playbook to be fully open for backup Jarrett Stidham, who takes the place of injured quarterback Bo Nix in this game. However, I do not think head coach Sean Payton will ask too much of Stidham in this game. Instead, he is going to rely on his running game and his defense to keep this game competitive going into the fourth quarter. Payton seems to relish the advantage his team has playing at home in the high altitude (probably from his previous experiences as the visitor in Denver during his tenure as the head coach for the New Orleans Saints). He expects his team to be less fatigued later in the game since they are conditioned for the thinner air. It is the same mentality that helps explain why Nix engineered seven game-winning drives this season. Payton may have confidence in Stidham — but the fact remains that he has a career 59.4% completion percentage in the NFL. He also has a career sack rate of 8.8% of his dropbacks as opposed to Nix of 3.9% this season. To put this in perspective, Nix was sacked 17 times in 22 games this season, while Stidham has been sacked 13 times in his four career starts in the league — so Payton is likely to run the ball a little more often and not ask too much of Stidham to get this game into the fourth quarter. Pulling out low-scoring games has been the modus operandi for the Broncos this season as they have failed to score more than 21 points nine times. Denver only gives up 287.7 total Yards-Per-Game which results in 18.9 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos have played 18 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. New England only managed 248 total yards last week in their victory against the Texans. The Patriots won that game because of their defense that held C.J. Stroud to completing just 20 of his 47 passes for 212 yards — and they picked him off four times. New England’s defense has been outstanding in the postseason — they have held their two opponents to 229.0 total YPG, which has resulted in just 9.5 PPG. They have registered nine sacks, forced two fumbles, and intercepted four passes. Getting back defensive end Milton Williams has really helped after he missed six games in a row in the second half of the season. The Patriots have played their best four defensive games in a row because of an improved pass rush. After posting a pass run win rate of 35% through the first 16 weeks of the season, they have improved to a 41% pass rush win rate in their last four games. Head coach Mike Vrabel has also overseen his defense ramping up their blitz rate lately. After sending extra pass rushers 25.5% of the time through Week 13, ranking 26th in the NFL, they have since blitzed in 39.4% of their opponent’s dropbacks, the sixth-highest mark over that span. On the other side of the football, Vrabel has to be concerned about the play of his second-year quarterback, Drake Maye. While Stroud is getting criticized for his mistakes last week, for some reason, Maye is getting a pass for his four fumbles and an interception last week. Playing against the Houston defense last week was the first time he faced a top-eight defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN) — and now he encounters a Denver defense that ranks fifth in Defensive DVOA. Maye’s 31 touchdown passes and eight interceptions in the regular season need to be tempered by the deeper metrics that indicate he only had 27 “Big-Time Throws” and committed 17 Turnover-Worthy Plays. He is taking too many sacks — he has been sacked 19 times in his last seven games, including nine in the postseason. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell deserves some of that blame after getting exposed in the last two weeks — and perhaps the concerns about his smaller hands before he got drafted are valid. Now the Patriots face the best pass rushing unit in the NFL as the Broncos led the league in both sacks (68) and Adjusted Pass Rush Rate. I also am not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when now playing in temperatures in the 20s for this game with a decent possibility of snow. Maye talks a good game about needing to embrace these conditions — but his collegiate experiences at North Carolina did not prepare him for playoff football in the snow. There were flurries in his game with Buffalo last month at Gillette Stadium — and he completed only 14 of 23 passes for 155 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception in the Bills’ comeback 35-31 victory. Last week in the cold, he only threw for 179 yards. 

FINAL TAKE: The weather is not going to help either offense. The wind is expected to be mild — but with temperatures dropping below 20 degrees for this game, catching the football will be more of a challenge. I don’t think either head coach wants to ask too much of their quarterbacks, who are inexperienced in playoff games like this. In Vrabel’s 7 playoff games as a head coach, 5 of those games finished Under the Total. The Broncos have played 14 of their 21 games under Payton Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Denver Broncos (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (287) and the Indiana Hoosiers (288) in the National Championship Game of the college football playoffs. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (13-2) has won seven games in a row after their 31-27 victory against Mississippi as a 3.5-point favorite in the college football semifinals on January 8th. Indiana (15-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 56-22 victory against Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite in their semifinals contest. This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, which happens to be the home of the Hurricanes. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hoosiers scored 56 points against the Ducks despite only gaining 362 yards against them. One of their touchdowns was on that opening play from scrimmage in a 25-yard interception return. They scored three other touchdowns on drives of less than 20 yards stemming from two takeaways and a blocked punt. But let’s remember that the Hoosiers scored no more than 27 points four times this season. Four of their victories were decided by 10 points or less — including two wins against Ohio State and Penn State by just a field goal and one win (against Iowa!) by only five points. The common thread in those four games is that Indiana failed to rush for more than 118 yards in those contests — and they did not generate more than 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry in those four games. Now they face a Miami (FL) run defense that ranks sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Hurricanes give up only 292.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and the Hoosiers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who do not give up more than 310 YPG. And while Miami scores 31.6 Points-Per-Game, Indiana has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams that score 31.0 or more PPG. Additionally, in their six games since Curt Cignetti took over as their head coach, the Hoosiers have played 4 of those games Under the Total. Miami head coach Mario Cristobal will not engage in the fast pace as his team did against Ole Miss. Instead, he will manage this game with the hope of keeping it close heading into the fourth quarter and get Indiana worried that their perfect season is slipping away! Miami’s strength is their physicality on both sides of the line of scrimmage — something that Alabama and Oregon lacked. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. may be the best player on the field. The Hurricanes have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. The Hoosiers generate 7.0 Yards-Per-Play — and Miami (FL) has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.9 or more YPP. Indiana also averages 9.6 passing Yards-Per-Attempt — and the Hurricanes have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who average 9.6 or more YPA.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher — and Miami (FL) has played 7 straight Unders against teams ranked in the top-five in the Associated Press poll. 10* CFB Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (287) and the Indiana Hoosiers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (287) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (288) in the National Championship Game of the college football playoffs. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (13-2) has won seven games in a row after their 31-27 victory against Mississippi as a 3.5-point favorite in the college football semifinals on January 8th. Indiana (15-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 56-22 victory against Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite in their semifinals contest. This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, which happens to be the home of the Hurricanes. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana is a really good team — but my instincts do not like this situation for them at all. In fact, this situation reminds me of the 2003 Fiesta Bowl when Ohio State upset an undefeated Miami (FL) team that was the reigning national champions, which was loaded with future NFL players as an 11.5-point underdog. This Hoosiers team is not as talented as that historic Hurricanes team — but the circumstances are similar, with this game risking seeming to be a fait accompli after their blowout victories against Alabama and Oregon in their two playoff games. I don’t love that this is just their third game since December 6th. In hindsight, I’m not sure either victory will age well. The Crimson Tide could not run the ball — and that left their offense exposed against well-coached top-level defenses. And then it only took five minutes into their game with the Ducks that I was cursing myself for backing a Dan Lanning-coached team in a big game. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore made costly mistakes early and often in that game, which immediately impacted the game script. The Ducks’ defensive line is not as stout as previous incarnations under Lanning. Those two victories helped inflate the line and probably push it past the touchdown key number. But let’s remember that the Hoosiers scored no more than 27 points four times this season. Four of their victories were decided by 10 points or less — including two wins against Ohio State and Penn State by just a field goal and one win (against Iowa!) by only five points. The common thread in those four games is that Indiana failed to rush for more than 118 yards in those contests — and they did not generate more than 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry in those four games. Now they face a Miami (FL) run defense that ranks sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Head coach Curt Cignetti’s teams at James Madison and now Indiana have been point spread covering machines — his teams have a 33-19 ATS mark in his head coaching career, including an 18-10 ATS record with the Hoosiers. But the cracks in the armor, where his teams do not consistently overachieve, are against teams with tough run defenses. In his career, his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 10 games against teams that hold their opponents to no more than 3.5 YPC, including a 3-3 ATS mark with Indiana. In his six games with the Hoosiers when the Total is set in the 42.5-49 point range, they are just 3-3 ATS. God help us, as we are backing Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal with his sketchy game management — and the penalties his team is going to commit will be infuriating. But I do have confidence that Cristobal will not engage in the fast pace as his team did against Ole Miss, but instead manage this game to get into the fourth quarter. Get Indiana worried that their perfect season is slipping away! Inspire confidence in his players, who should have their beliefs enabled by the NFL Hall of Fame alumni patrolling the sidelines next to them. Miami’s strength is their physicality on both sides of the line of scrimmage — something that Alabama and Oregon lacked. For the sake of argument, I will concede that the Hoosiers are the better-coached team (but it may not be by as wide a margin as one may assume). But there is a solid case that the Hurricanes have more top end talent with three projected first round NFL draft picks. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. may be the best player on the field. These are the type of games that Cristobal gets Miami to overachieve. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams ranked in the top 25 in the Associated Press poll. Indiana generates 6.25 Yards-Per-Play and 9.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but Miami (FL) has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who average 6.25 or more YPP, and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams who average 8.3 or more YPA. And while the Hoosiers score 42.6 Points-Per-Game, the Hurricanes under Cristobal have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams that score 37 or more PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: Playing on their home field certainly helps — while I am not expecting an overly partisan crowd given the huge Indiana alumni base, the Miami players will have the advantage of familiarity and comfort playing on their home field (and perhaps embrace a sense of destiny as they stand next to Michael Irvin). Lastly, I think it would be a mistake to quickly dismiss the Hurricanes as simply an also-ran ACC team. They lost two one-possession games against Louisville and SMU — but their resume featuring victories against Ohio State, Mississippi (who beat Georgia), Texas A&M, and even Notre Dame to begin the season stacks up favorably to Indiana’s best wins. ACC teams may have entered this postseason with only nine victories in their last 39 games against teams from the Big Ten or SEC, with an 11-28 ATS mark in those contests, but the ACC has won and covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games against the Big Ten and SEC this postseason. I think one of the lessons of this Indiana team is that success in this new era of the transfer portal and NIL means that national champions require a roster full of blue-chip players. But the flip side of that coin is that programs that recruit well — especially on the line of scrimmage — have closed the gap because the best teams are just not quite as elite as they once were. And I did not even yet mention Carson Beck, who has a 36-6 record as a starting quarterback and will have a chip on his shoulder as the once projected first-round NFL draft pick. I expect a close game. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (287) plus the points versus Indiana Hoosiers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (394) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (393). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-6) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 31-27 upset victory against Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (13-5) has won four of their last six contests after their 34-31 win at Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Weather will play a factor in tonight’s game, with the forecast calling for temperatures to fall into the teens with winds at 22 miles per hour and gusting to 27 MPH. Snow is possible, and the wind chill will make it feel much colder. Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter en route to their 445 yards and upset victory despite the cold temperatures approaching freezing and winds over 20 MPH. Caleb Williams threw for 361 yards. In eight-degree temperatures in Cleveland, he threw for 242 yards and posted a 112.5 Quarterback Rating against the stout Browns defense. Rookie head coach Ben Johnson has incorporated having his team practice in the cold without the heaters they will have tonight — and Williams has commented that this tactic has made the players quite used to these conditions. Frankly, Johnson probably cemented this head coaching job last December as the offensive coordinator for Detroit when he was dialing up trick play after trick play as the Lions scored 34 points in those freezing temperatures. Williams, by the way, passed for 334 yards in that game and posted a 107.7 Passer Rating. The Rams defense is showing plenty of cracks in the armor. While they do a good job of stopping explosive plays, they still rank 27th in opponent Power Success Rate allowed, 31st in Stuff Rate, and 20th in Adjusted Line Yards. Chicago ranks fifth in Rushing DVOA and Adjusted Line Yards. Johnson will keep his offense on schedule, which will set up explosive plays against a now vulnerable LA pass defense. In the last six weeks, the Rams have surrendered 25 explosive plays of at least 20 yards, representing 41% of their opponents' pass attempts — that is the second most explosive pass plays allowed (with the Bears being the worst, BTW). Their defense is getting pressure on 36.9% of their opponent’s dropbacks — but they are registering sacks in only 6.8% of those plays. In those last six weeks, they have the sixth-worst Pass DVOA when getting pressure on the QB. In their last seven games, they rank 20th in EPA per play allowed despite playing four games against the mediocre offenses of Carolina and Arizona. And even if Chicago starts slow and finds themselves in a hole, Johnson’s play-calling demonstrates the potential of his offense. The Bears rank second in Offensive DVOA in the fourth quarter — and they are sixth in that metric in the fourth quarter when trailing despite the defense defending the pass. Williams leads the NFL with 25 converted third downs in the fourth quarter — and one of the reasons he moves the chains late in games is that he is given the green light to use his legs. Johnson also opens up the passing game in those moments — and Williams ranks ninth in the league in Explosive Pass plays after generating a whopping nine explosive pass plays last week. Wide receiver Rome Adunze’s return to action tonight only helps their offensive attack. Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory against a fellow NFC North rival. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing with extra rest under head coach Sean McVay. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is making his sixth start in temperatures under 30 degrees — his teams have lost and failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those 5 games. 
 
FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 meetings between these two teams — and the Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games at home this season. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (394) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (393) and the Chicago Bears (394). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-5) has won four of their last six contests after their 34-31 win at Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Chicago (12-6) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 31-27 upset victory against Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Weather will play a factor in tonight’s game with the forecast calling for temperatures to fall into the teens with winds at 22 miles per hour and gusting to 27 MPH. Snow is possible, and the wind chill will make it feel much colder. Wind does not help the kicking or passing games — but we are betting numbers. Both of these teams have demonstrated that their offenses do not slow down in conditions like this. The Rams generated 411 yards last week in cold weather in Charlotte, which was windy. Matthew Stafford has played six games in his professional career in temperatures no higher than 20 degrees. He has averaged 253.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in those games with 15 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Frankly, I put a lot of weight into their playoff game in Philadelphia last January. In that 28-22 loss to an Eagles team with a much better defense than what he will face tonight, Stafford completed 26 of 44 passes for 324 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in cold temperatures in the low 30s and wind at 23 MPH (per my notes) — and he almost rallied his team for a last minute victory in those conditions before that drives stalled deep in Philly territory. The Rams are a run-first offense that has scored at least 26 points 13 times — and they have scored 33 or more points nine times. Take away their games against the elite defenses of Seattle, Philadelphia, and Houston, and their scoring average rises to 32.4 Points-Per-Game. The offensive line gets a shot in the arm with the return of right guard Kevin Dotson from injury. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the third-best guard in the NFL. Los Angeles should move the ball at will against this suspect Bears defense that ranks 24th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Chicago has stayed competitive because of their league-leading 33 takeaways — but remove their forced turnovers from the equation, and they drop to 29th in Defensive DVOA and 30th in opponent Expected Points Added per play. They rank 27th in Rush Defense DVOA and opponent EPA per rush attempt. They are also last in the league in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. Head coach Sean McVay added the three-tight-end 13-personnel into their bag of tricks midway through the season to great success in both their pass and rushing attacks. The Bears lack the personnel or the experience to handle this formation. The most times they defended against 13 personnel was against Pittsburgh in Week 12 in a shootout, they survived by a 31-28 score. The Rams have played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 12 of their last 19 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And while they play their home games on artificial turf at SoFi Stadium, they have still played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total on grass. Chicago gave up 421 yards last week to the Packers. But their offense scored 25 points in the fourth quarter en route to their 445 yards and upset victory despite the cold temperatures approaching freezing and winds over 20 MPH. Caleb Williams threw for 361 yards. In eight-degree temperatures in Cleveland, he threw for 242 yards and posted a 112.5 Quarterback Rating against the stout Browns defense. Rookie head coach Ben Johnson has incorporated having his team practice in the cold without the heaters they will have tonight — and Williams has commented that this tactic has made the players quite used to these conditions. Frankly, Johnson probably cemented this head coaching job last December as the offensive coordinator for Detroit when he was dialing up trick play after trick play as the Lions scored 34 points in those freezing temperatures. Williams, by the way, passed for 334 yards in that game and posted a 107.7 Passer Rating. My initial concern about the weather is gone. The Rams defense is showing plenty of cracks in the armor. While they do a good job of stopping explosive plays, they still rank 27th in opponent Power Success Rate allowed, 31st in Stuff Rate, and 20th in Adjusted Line Yards. Chicago ranks fifth in Rushing DVOA and Adjusted Line Yards. Johnson will keep his offense on schedule, which will set up explosive plays against a now vulnerable LA pass defense. In the last six weeks, the Rams have surrendered 25 explosive plays of at least 20 yards, representing 41% of their opponents' pass attempts — that is the second most explosive pass plays allowed (with the Bears being the worst, BTW). Their defense is getting pressure on 36.9% of their opponent’s dropbacks — but they are registering sacks in ony 6.8% of those plays. In those last six weeks, they have the sixth-worst Pass DVOA when getting pressure on the QB. In their last seven games, they rank 20th in EPA per play allowed despite playing four games against the mediocre offenses of Carolina and Arizona. And even if Chicago starts slow and finds themselves in a hole, Johnson’s play-calling demonstrates the potential of his offense. The Bears rank second in Offensive DVOA in the fourth quarter — and they are sixth in that metric in the fourth quarter when trailing despite the defense defending the pass. Williams leads the NFL with 25 converted third downs in the fourth quarter — and one of the reasons he moves the chains late in games is that he is given the green light to use his legs. Johnson also opens up the passing game in those moments — and Williams ranks ninth in the league in Explosive Pass plays after generating a whopping nine explosive pass plays last week. Wide receiver Rome Adunze’s return to action tonight only helps their offensive attack. But they lost their stud linebacker T.J. Edwards to a season-ending to a broken fibula last week — and their defense surrenders 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry without him on the field. 

FINAL TAKE: Cold weather impacts both sides of the football. It can be harder to both tackle and establish a firm footing for defensive positions in the cold and snow. Chicago has played 7 of their 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (393) and the Chicago Bears (394). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (387) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (388). THE SITUATION: Houston (13-5) has won ten games in a row after their 30-6 victory at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite in their wildcard playoff game last Monday. New England (15-3) has won four games in a row after their 16-3 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Patriots should have scored more points on Sunday as they generated 381 yards of offense, but too often stalled in the Red Zone. The game script devolved into a prehistoric rock fight before the Chargers’ injuries on the offensive line were simply too much for them to overcome. I remain skeptical about the Patriots' defensive numbers given their strength of schedule. They set an NFL record by playing 14 opponents that ended the season with a losing record. Only Pittsburgh (in Week Two) and then their pair of games against Buffalo finished the season with a winning percentage over .500 — and the Steelers did not exactly sport the Greatest Show on Turf with their offense. Eleven of their 14 victories came against quarterbacks that were either rookies, backups, or starters who eventually got benched. Quinn Ewers, Brady Cook, Justin Fields, Dillon Gabriel, Spencer Rattler, Tyler Huntley — so I am taking all the Patriots’ defensive numbers with a grain of salt — and there are plenty of red flags when looking at the efficiency numbers. Their Red Zone defense ranks 31st in the NFL. Their Run Defense DVOA ranked fifth in the league through the first nine weeks — but that unit dropped to 24th in the NFL since then through last week. In their two games against Buffalo, they surrendered 27.5 Points-Per-Game. New England has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have also played 13 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored. Houston demonstrated their style of play can function when playing in cold weather on Monday as they gained 408 yards of offense. I am choosing to blame quarterback C.J. Stroud’s fumble issues on Monday on it being a full moon (or something) since fumbling has not been an issue in the past. I don’t love that wide receiver Nico Collins is out for this game with a concussion — but the offense has been better since the veteran Christian Kirk returned from injury, and rookie Jayden Higgins has emerged as a reliable option. After ranking 19th in Pass DVOA in the first nine weeks of the season, the Texans have improved to 10th in the metric since. Kirk’s presence helped the vertical passing game as well — Stroud’s Yards-Per-Attempt on deep passes rose from 9.4 to 12.6 since Week 10. 

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and New England has played 7 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in that 35.5-42 point range. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (387) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (388). THE SITUATION: Houston (13-5) has won ten games in a row after their 30-6 victory at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite in their wildcard playoff game last Monday. New England (15-3) has won four games in a row after their 16-3 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Not only did the Patriots enjoy the easiest regular season schedule this year according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN), but their opponents represented the third-easiest slate of games in hindsight going all the way to 1978. I remain skeptical that their victory against the Chargers last week suddenly validated them. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team was the lowest-rated team of all the AFC squads that made the postseason — and the score was still 9-3 with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter before New England scored their final touchdown. It was a prehistoric rock fight before the Chargers’ injuries on the offensive line were simply too much for them to overcome. The Patriots were 0-5 in the Red Zone, which continued their mediocrity inside their opponent’s 20-yard line, where they rank 15th in DVOA. There were plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Patriots' 14-win regular season heading into last week. They set an NFL record by playing 14 opponents that ended the season with a losing record. Only Pittsburgh (in Week Two) and then their pair of games against Buffalo finished the season with a winning percentage over .500. They lost two of those three games. Eleven of their 14 victories came against quarterbacks that were either rookies, backups, or starters who eventually got benched. Quinn Ewers, Brady Cook, Justin Fields, Dillon Gabriel, Spencer Rattler, Tyler Huntley — so I am taking all the Patriots’ defensive numbers with a grain of salt — and there are plenty of red flags when looking at the efficiency numbers. Their Red Zone defense ranks 31st in the NFL. Their Run Defense DVOA ranked fifth in the league through the first nine weeks — but that unit dropped to 24th in the NFL since then through last week. Overall, their DVOA net efficiency numbers ranked just 15th in the league. Head coach Mike Vrabel’s team also enjoyed some of the best fumble luck in the league by recovering 61.8% of the fumbles in their games, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. Quarterback Drake Maye has yet to play against a defense ranked in the top eight in Defensive DVOA — before today’s game. His 31 touchdown passes and eight interceptions are tempered by the deeper metrics that indicate he only had 27 “Big-Time Throws” and committed 17 Turnover-Worthy Plays. He is taking too many sacks. After the Chargers got to him five times, he has been sacked 15 times in his last six games. I also am not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when now playing in temperatures in the 30s for this game with a decent possibility of snow. Maye talks a good game about needing to embrace these conditions — but his collegiate experiences at North Carolina did not prepare him for playoff football in the snow. There were flurries in his game with Buffalo last month at Gillette Stadium — and he completed only 14 of 23 passes for 155 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception in the Bills’ comeback 35-31 victory. New England has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 5 games this season after covering the point spread in three games in a row. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home when listed in the +/- 3—point range. Houston demonstrated their style of play can function when playing in cold weather on Monday. The Texans are outscoring their opponents by +6.5 Points-Per-Game when playing on the road — and they are outgaining these opponents by +64.5 net Yards-Per-Game by holding their home hosts to 260.4 YPG, which is resulting in 14.3 PPG. Houston has covered the point spread in 10 of their 12 games on the road under Ryans with the total set in the 35.5-42 point range. I am choosing to blame quarterback C.J. Stroud’s fumble issues on Monday on it being a full moon (or something) since fumbling has not been an issue in the past. I don’t love that wide receiver Nico Collins is out for this game with a concussion — but the offense has been better since the veteran Christian Kirk returned from injury, and rookie Jayden Higgins has emerged as a reliable option. After ranking 19th in Pass DVOA in the first nine weeks of the season, the Texans have improved to 10th in the metric since. Kirk’s presence helped the vertical passing game as well — Stroud’s Yards-Per-Attempt on deep passes rose from 9.4 to 12.6 since Week 10. The best unit on the field will be the Houston defense that ranks second in DVOA and opponent Expected Points Added per play. They have the best secondary in the NFL — and because they can generate a pass rush from their outstanding defensive line, they blitz at a league-low 21.2% of their opponent’s snaps. And while one of Maye’s strengths is his ability to decipher disguised coverages, the Houston defense rarely dabbles in those dark arts and relies on sound fundamental principles. In their six games against top ten Pass DVOA offenses, those quarterbacks had this average stat line: 19 of 31 for 229 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns per game, 0.8 interceptions per game, 2.8 sacks per game. 

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have been very reliable in situations like this under Ryans. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their 25 games with him against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Houston earned their first win on the road in the postseason with him as their head coach last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 playoff games under his leadership. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (387) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (388). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (389) and the Seattle Seahawks (390). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-19 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (14-3) enters the postseason on a seven-game winning streak after their 13-3 win at San Francisco against these 49ers as a 2.5-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 4th. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks completely shut down the Niners' offense two weeks ago in what was a dismal effort. It was the first time since head coach Kyle Shanahan’s first season that his team did not score a touchdown. Their nine first downs were the second fewest of the season. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted his worst DVOA passing number using the metrics of Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Overall, San Francisco only generated 173 yards of offense in that game, which was the lowest of the season and the second-lowest in Shanahan’s head coaching career. To make things even worse, the injury bug continues to ravage San Francisco, with the latest casualty being George Kittle, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week. Not only is Kittle their most effective target in the passing game, he also plays a huge role in the run game with his blocking. And on the plus side, the offense gets star left tackle Trent Williams back for this game after he missed time with an injury, including that Week 18 game against Seattle. I suspect Shanahan leans very heavily into the ground game with Williams back to slow this game down and hopes to make this a rock fight by controlling time of possession. Don’t be surprised if the game plan is constant Christian McCaffrey for three yards and a cloud of dust. The 49ers have played 18 of their last 27 road games Under the Total as an underdog of seven points or less. They have also played 5 of their 8 games played on a Saturday with Shanahan as their head coach. The dirty little secret about Seattle is that they got exposed in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, who did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations regarding the heavy personnel multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Quarterback Sam Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they have ranked 18th in that metric since. Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he has since dropped to 18th. The lack of a reliable second target after the sublime Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a problem. Darnold ranks 29th in Passing DVOA to non-JSN targets in the second half of the season, even removing sacks or his throwaways. Darnold’s struggles against pressure have also been a significant issue. In his 333 passes in a clean pocket this season, he has thrown for 3119 yards with 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 110.7. But in his 144 passes under pressure, he has only 929 yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 72.4. The season-ending injury to Nick Bosa has contributed to the Niners having one of the worst pass rushes in the league. But credit defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, as he has schemed his way to dial up pressure in 41.1% of the Seahawks dropbacks in their two games this season — including getting a pressure rate on Darnold in 43.3% of their dropbacks two weeks ago. It is very telling that Darnold has not even attempted a pass of 20 or more air yards against the Niners this season. With 14 interceptions and another 11 fumbles, Macdonald has pivoted and not asked Darnold to do too much since the Rams discovered their trick to unleash him mostly in heavy sets when the defense was worried about stopping the run. To compound matters, Darnold suffered an oblique injury that kept him out of practice this week — so he may not be at 100% and feeling off tonight. I expect Macdonald will be fine with a rock fight because he fears a critical mistake will be made by his quarterback. He is confident he can slow down McCaffrey. More importantly, head coach Mike Macdonald has demonstrated that his defensive schemes can slow down Kyle Shanahan’s offense. In his first game against the 49ers as Seattle’s head coach in early October, the Niners did score 36 points. I will note that this game was played a couple of weeks before the Seahawks acquired middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Miami, which allowed Macdonald to make some midseason adjustments, which led to some significant improvements from his defense. Seattle held San Francisco to just 17 points in their rematch last season — and the 49ers only scored 17 points in the first game between these teams in September. Even going back to Macdonald’s time as the defensive coordinator for Baltimore, when the Ravens played the Niners on Christmas Day in 2023, San Francisco scored only 19 points in that game. Then in Week 18 two weeks ago, CMC ran the ball only eight times for 23 yards. The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow NFC West rival. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Niners under Shanahan have been a reliable Over team — but in their 13 playoff games under his tenure, 9 of those games finished Under the Total. Even more telling, in their four previous games as a #6 seed, they have played all 4 of those games Under the Total. In the role of the underdog, Shanahan will want to shorten this game. 10* NFL Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (389) and the Seattle Seahawks (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (389) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (390). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-19 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (14-3) enters the postseason on a seven-game winning streak after their 13-3 win at San Francisco against these 49ers as a 2.5-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 4th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Seahawks completely shut down the Niners' offense two weeks ago in what was a dismal effort. It was the first time since head coach Kyle Shanahan’s first season that his team did not score a touchdown. Their nine first downs were the second fewest of the season. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted his worst DVOA passing number using the metrics of Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Overall, San Francisco only generated 173 yards of offense in that game, which was the lowest of the season and the second-lowest in Shanahan’s head coaching career. But all those red flags were waving last week as the 49ers traveled to Philadelphia to face defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who had consistently had Shanahan’s number in their previous battles. And all the injured riddled Niners did was gain 361 yards despite a -2 net turnover margin and only have their offense on the field for 24:21 minutes. All Shanahan’s offense did last week was post their best Success Rate in his career against a Fangio-coached defense. So underestimate Shanahan’s ability to make adjustments to what the Mike Macdonald defense did to his group two weeks ago at your own peril — because Fangio had that tape too. If I knew what changes Shanahan was going to make, then I would be an offensive coordinator somewhere. I just know that the Niners have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 rematch games on the road. Of course, the injury bug continues to ravage San Francisco, with the latest casualty being George Kittle, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week. But that injury took place midway through the second quarter — and the 49ers still pulled out that game. And on the plus side, the offense gets star left tackle Trent Williams back for this game after he missed time with an injury, including that Week 18 game against Seattle. His return is massive. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road against fellow NFC West rivals — and they have won seven of their last nine games against the Seahawks in Seattle while covering the point spread in 6 of those contests. The dirty little secret about Seattle is that they got exposed in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, who did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations regarding the heavy personnel multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Quarterback Sam Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they have ranked 18th in that metric since. Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he has since dropped to 18th. The lack of a reliable second target after the sublime Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a problem. Darnold ranks 29th in Passing DVOA to non-JSN targets in the second half of the season, even removing sacks or his throwaways. Darnold’s struggles against pressure have also been a significant issue. In his 333 passes in a clean pocket this season, he has thrown for 3119 yards with 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 110.7. But in his 144 passes under pressure, he has only 929 yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 72.4. The season-ending injury to Nick Bosa has contributed to the Niners having one of the worst pass rushes in the league. But credit defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, as he has schemed his way to dial up pressure in 41.1% of the Seahawks dropbacks in their two games this season — including getting a pressure rate on Darnold in 43.3% of their dropbacks two weeks ago. It is very telling that Darnold has not even attempted a pass of 20 or more air yards against the Niners this season. With 14 interceptions and another 11 fumbles, Macdonald has pivoted and not asked Darnold to do too much since the Rams discovered their trick to unleash him mostly in heavy sets when the defense was worried about stopping the run. To compound matters, Darnold suffered an oblique injury that kept him out of practice this week — so he may not be at 100% and feeling off tonight. Seattle has been road warriors this season — but they are only outgaining their opponents by +1.0 net Yards-Per-Game at home, where their defense is giving up +44.5 Yards-Per-Game above their season average. The Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams with a winning record. 

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have a 7-0 straight-up record in the Wild Card and Divisional Round in the postseason under Shanahan — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of those 7 games. They have also won all three of those games played on the road after last week — and the Niners have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games in the playoffs. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (389) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (392) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (391). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-3) has won 13 of their last 14 games after their 19-3 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 15.5-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 4th. Buffalo (13-5) won for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 27-24 upset victory at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The temptation to back Josh Allen in a virtual pick ‘em game is strong — especially after watching him last week. I passed on that game after concluding that I leaned to the Jaguars but just did not want to fade Allen in that spot. Staying on the road to play in the high altitude in Denver against a team coming off a bye week is a stiffer challenge. Certainly, Allen could play Superman again as he did last week — but he is so banged up that perhaps expecting him to simply carry his team (again) is too much to ask. He suffered a left knee and jammed right finger last week — and he has been playing through a right foot sprain for weeks. The wide receiver room is very thin without Josh Palmer, Gabe Davis, and Tyrel Shavers all out with injuries (although Curtis Samuel is expected to be activated). The defense is without linebacker Terrel Bernard, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, and safety Jordan Power (although defensive tackle Ed Oliver is expected to return). Buffalo’s win last week was just their first victory on the road in the postseason in their last nine games. Now they are on the road again on a short week, playing in the afternoon Saturday game — and NFL teams playing on a short week in the divisional round have lost 15 of those last 21 games. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory on the road. And while they scored touchdowns on all three of their Red Zone trips last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when scoring touchdowns on all three (or more) of their Red Zone trips in their last game. Buffalo’s offense is trending in the wrong direction. After ranking sixth in Offensive DVOA through the first nine weeks using the analytics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN), they have dropped to 13th in that metric through last week. They got outgained by -19 yards against Jacksonville. Allen does his best work against zone defenses, against which the Bills rank sixth in Offensive DVOA. But the Broncos play the second most man coverage in the league — and Buffalo drops to 25th in Offensive DVOA against man coverage. On the other side of the ball, Denver is going to stay on schedule with head coach Sean Payton calling plays against the Bills’ suspect run defense that ranks 31st in Run Defense DVOA. The Broncos deploy both man blocking and outside zone schemes in their ground game — and Buffalo surrenders 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry against man blocking and 5.1 YPC very outside zone. The Bills also give up 9.4 yards per quarterback scramble — so Bo Nix will have his opportunities to move the ball. Buffalo’s defense faces a dilemma — they prefer to play two-high safety looks that can frustrate Nix (he ranks 22nd in DVOA versus that look but improves to 13th in DVOA against single-high safety). But that shell defense simply invites Denver to run the ball more. They could choose to blitz — but Nix ranks seventh in DVOA against the blitz and is helped by an offensive line that ranks eighth in the NFL in pass blocking win rate. What Payton likes about Nix coming out of college is his ability to decipher disguised coverages — something that stymied Trevor Lawrence last week. Buffalo ranks 27th in pass rush win rate, which forces them to blitz at the 10th highest rate in the NFL. Nix should be able to punish those decisions by finding the open routes. The Denver defense gets back linebacker Dre Greenlaw this afternoon — and they rank fourth in the league by allowing only 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry against outside zone run schemes, which is the Bills’ preferred approach. The Broncos have won all three of their games when coming off a bye week with Payton as their head coach — and his teams have won all four of their playoff games played with extra rest going back to his tenure with New Orleans. I certainly considered Denver’s 11-2 record in games decided by one-scoring possession — but, like with Andy Reid, I do consider it a skill to pull out close games. I don’t think an 85% clip is sustainable — but Payton is a protege of Bill Parcells, who preached to stay patient and wait for the dopes on the other sideline to start panicking and make mistakes. There are a lot of dopes in the league right now that leave points on the field, get too aggressive with fourth downs, and commit the Gambler’s Fallacy when it comes to 2-point attempt logic. The Broncos are outscoring their guests by +7.8 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +95.4 net Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home, where they do enjoy an altitude advantage against teams not used to playing in the thin air (another reason why they pull out close games). Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when favored. 

FINAL TAKE: Sure, with Kansas City and Baltimore failing to make the playoffs — the door is wide open for Allen to finally make his run to the Super Bowl that has cruelly eluded him. But why isn’t the deeper message from the Chiefs and Ravens that the league is in transition — and time has also passed this Bills team by? As I wrote in my preseason deep-dive on this team: “Buffalo has been an elite team for five straight seasons — but it is their defense that is holding them back.  In their 12 playoff games since 2020, they are surrendering 24.2 PPG — and in their five losses, they have given up 33.2 PPG … Improving the defense will help Allen succeed — and seizing home-field advantage in the playoffs would be a good idea as well.” Well, the defense isn’t any better, they gave up another 24 points in a playoff game last week, and their route to a Super Bowl requires winning three straight road games. It is asking so much of Allen. At a certain point, the Bills’ 12-13-1 ATS record under head coach Sean McDermott against teams winning 75% or more of their games becomes too persuasive. I am a believer in Payton’s game management — and his Broncos teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 games at home against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Buffalo-Denver CBS-TV Special with the Denver Broncos (392) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (391). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (391) and the Denver Broncos (392). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (13-5) won for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 27-24 upset victory at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (14-3) has won 13 of their last 14 games after their 19-3 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 15.5-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 4th. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After going into halftime with a 10-7 lead, the Bills outlasted the Jaguars in a second-half shootout. I suspect this game will follow a similar script where both offenses trade more and more points in the second half as the urgency rises. Last week’s game was the ninth time in quarterback Josh Allen’s ten playoff games when Buffalo scored at least 24 points. But heading into that game last week, the Bills had surrendered 24.2 Points-Per-Game in their 12 playoff games since 2020. The defense is without linebacker Terrel Bernard, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, and safety Jordan Power (although defensive tackle Ed Oliver is expected to return). Buffalo has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have also played 7 of their 9 games under head coach Sean McDermott in games played on Saturday. Additionally, the Bills have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games, including four of those five games played on the road. They have also played 8 of their 13 playoff games Over the Total under McDermott. The wide receiver room is thin after several injuries, but Curtis Samuel will get active off the injured list. The Bills' offense has the opportunity to take advantage of this Broncos defense. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady relies heavily on pre-snap motion to identify the opposing defense's pass coverage while creating the opportunity for on-field mismatches. Running back James Cook ran the ball 204 times after pre-snap motion for 1084 yards, 584 yards after the first contact, and reached the end zone 10 times. Allen has ran the ball 63 times for 451 yards, 263 yards after contact, and reached the end zone 12 times. Denver surrenders only 2.4 yards after contact in standard formations — but when the opposing offense deploys pre-snap motion, they then allow 3.2 rushing yards after contact. On the other side of the ball, Denver is going to stay on schedule with head coach Sean Payton calling plays against the Bills’ suspect run defense that ranks 31st in Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The Broncos deploy both man blocking and outside zone schemes in their ground game — and Buffalo surrenders 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry against man blocking and 5.1 YPC very outside zone. The Bills also give up 9.4 yards per quarterback scramble — so Bo Nix will have his opportunities to move the ball. Buffalo’s defense faces a dilemma — they prefer to play two-high safety looks that can frustrate Nix (he ranks 22nd in DVOA versus that look but improves to 13th in DVOA against single-high safety). But that shell defense simply invites Denver to run the ball more. They could choose to blitz — but Nix ranks seventh in DVOA against the blitz and is helped by an offensive line that ranks eighth in the NFL in pass blocking win rate. What Payton likes about Nix coming out of college is his ability to decipher disguised coverages — something that stymied Trevor Lawrence last week. Buffalo ranks 27th in pass rush win rate, which forces them to blitz at the 10th highest rate in the NFL. Nix should be able to punish those decisions by finding the open routes. The Broncos have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a straight-up win, including 8 of those 11 games played at home. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. Unleashing their running game is critical. The Bills are giving up 5.2 YPC, which is resulting in 137.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who surrender 130 or more rushing YPG, including all four of those games played at home. They have also played 5 straight Overs at home against teams who give up 4.5 or more YPC. 

FINAL TAKE: The conventional wisdom is that Denver boasts an elite defense but merely a suspect offense — but the numbers reveal the opposite to be the case. Since Week 11, the Broncos rank 11th in Offensive DVOA, but their defense drops to 18th in Defensive DVOA. Hidden within a late schedule that included struggling AFC West offenses, Las Vegas, the LA Chargers, and Kansas City (after the Patrick Mahomes injury). But since November 30th, Denver has surrendered 26 points to both Washington and Green Bay, along with 34 points against Jacksonville. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (391) and the Denver Broncos (392). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (385) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (386). THE SITUATION: Houston (12-5) has won nine games in a row after their 38-30 victory against Indianapolis as a 9.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (10-7) has won four of their last five games after their 26-24 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans’ defense showed some warts last week by surrendering 354 yards of offense against rookie quarterback Riley Leonard. But Houston has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow AFC South rival, including four of those five games played at home. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has some severe home/road splits this season. At home, he sports a 107.4 Quarterback Rating, completes 69.1% of his passes, averages 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt, and has a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But on the road, his QBR drops to 81.3, his completion percentage falls to 60.9%, his YPA lowers to 6.8, and he has nine touchdown passes but seven interceptions. In his two career games on the road in the playoffs, Houston has scored only 24 combined points and no more than 14 points in either game. The Texans have played 16 of their last 26 games on the road Under the Total. Additionally, while the Houston offensive line has improved with the emergence of Ed Ingram, that group remains a weakness. Even with T.J. Watt missing time due to an injury, the Steelers rank sixth in the league by generating 2.8 sacks per game. Where the Texans’ offensive line issues really show up is in short-yardage situations, especially at the goal line. They only have four rushing touchdowns inside their opponent’s five-yard line — and that mark is four touchdowns fewer than the second closest team that made the playoffs. In their 24 rushes inside their opponent’s five-yard line, they have only six total rushing yards with a 0.25 Yards-Per-Carry average, which is the second-lowest in the NFL. Their running backs account for 21 of those attempts — and they only have four rushing yards. Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Despite not having T.J. Watt healthy all season, the Steelers defense ranks 11th in the league according to the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Pittsburgh has played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against fellow AFC rivals. They have played 8 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also played 10 of their last 16 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Texans have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (385) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (386) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (385). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won four of their last five games after their 26-24 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (12-5) has won nine games in a row after their 38-30 victory against Indianapolis as a 9.5-point favorite. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans’ defense showed some warts last week by surrendering 354 yards of offense against rookie quarterback Riley Leonard. They got outgained by -15 yards and survived the game due to a +3 net turnover margin. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring 30 or more points, including three straight point spread losses this season. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has some severe home/road splits this season. At home, he sports a 107.4 Quarterback Rating, completes 69.1% of his passes, averages 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt, and has a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But on the road, his QBR drops to 81.3, his completion percentage falls to 60.9%, his YPA lowers to 6.8, and he has nine touchdown passes but seven interceptions. In his two career games on the road in the playoffs, Houston has scored only 24 combined points and no more than 14 points in either game. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their 27 games with Stroud under center when favored. The road team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games in this rivalry. And while the Houston offensive line has improved with the emergence of Ed Ingram, that group remains a weakness. Even with T.J. Watt missing time due to an injury, the Steelers rank sixth in the league by generating 2.8 sacks per game. Where the Texans’ offensive line issues really show up is in short-yardage situations, especially at the goal line. They only have four rushing touchdowns inside their opponent’s five-yard line — and that mark is four touchdowns fewer than the second closest team that made the playoffs. In their 24 rushes inside their opponent’s five-yard line, they have only six total rushing yards with a 0.25 Yards-Per-Carry average, which is the second-lowest in the NFL. Their running backs account for 21 of those attempts — and they only have four rushing yards. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after pulling off an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory against a fellow AFC North rival. The Steelers welcome back wide receiver D.J. Metcalf for this game after completing his two-game suspension. He is needed. The team’s completion percentage above league expectation is +0.08 through Week 16, but dropped to -0.052 in the last two weeks without him. Their Expected Points Added per play was +0.087 through Week 16, but fell to -0.052 in the last two games without him. Metcalf leads the team in the following categories: 21.1% target share; 40.6% air yards share; 11 end zone targets; 85 first-read targets. Pittsburgh’s offense has improved in the second half of the season, as they have scored 26 or more points in five of their last six games. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, they are 41-19-1 ATS as a single-digit underdog. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their 31 games at home as an underdog under Tomlin. They are 20-12-1 ATS in their last 33 games against teams with a better record than them. Pittsburgh should be confident in this game since they have won 23 straight games at home on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers may be the X-factor in this game. While he is not as mobile as he was in his prime, he remains as savvy as ever. He has a 12-2 straight-up record on Monday Night Football with his teams covering the point spread in 9 of those 14 contests. He has a 12-8-1 ATS mark in the playoffs — and his teams are 6-3-1 ATS in the ten games as they are an underdog. Furthermore, while the Texans only give up 17.4 Points-Per-Game, Rodgers’ teams have a 9-1-1 ATS mark in 11 games against defenses that do not give up more than 18 PPG, including five straight point spread covers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Pittsburgh Steelers (386) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (385). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (383) and the New England Patriots (384). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 19-3 loss at Denver as a 15-point underdog last Sunday. New England (14-3) has won three games in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests after their 38-10 victory at home against Miami as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Rookie quarterback Drake Maye looks like a keeper and is a legitimate MVP candidate — but he was able to feast on a lot of bad defenses. He played 14 opponents that ended the season with a losing record. Only Pittsburgh (in Week Two) and then their pair of games against Buffalo finished the season with a winning percentage over .500. So I am taking all the Patriots’ defensive numbers with a grain of salt. His 31 touchdown passes and eight interceptions are tempered by the deeper metrics that indicate he only had 27 “Big-Time Throws” and committed 17 Turnover-Worthy Plays. Now Maye makes his postseason debut against what may very well be the best defense he has ever played against. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow AFC East rival, including three of those four games this season. Head coach Mike Vrabel played 4 of his 5 playoff games Under the Total in his time with the Tennessee Titans. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. In Jim Harbaugh’s head coaching career, his teams have played 19 of their 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Achilles heel of this team is their banged-up offensive line, missing tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt due to season-ending injuries. Harbaugh does not want a game plan that asks him to throw 40 or more times. The Chargers have not scored more than 22 points in their last five games, which were not against Las Vegas or Dallas, who were burdened by two of the worst defenses in the league (and both those defensive staffs have been fired this week). The Chargers' defense ranks second in the NFL in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed in the last ten weeks. And after ranking second best in opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s unit ranks fourth in that metric this season. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: The weather will not help scoring. It will be cold at 32 degrees — but the bigger issue is the wind that is forecast at 22 miles per hour and gusting into the 30s miles per hour. The Chargers have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight Unders as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (383) and the New England Patriots (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (384) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (383). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 19-3 loss at Denver as a 15-point underdog last Sunday. New England (14-3) has won three games in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests after their 38-10 victory at home against Miami as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Patriots' 14-win regular season. They set an NFL record by playing 14 opponents that ended the season with a losing record. Only Pittsburgh (in Week Two) and then their pair of games against Buffalo finished the season with a winning percentage over .500. They lost two of those three games. Eleven of their 14 victories came against quarterbacks that were either rookies, backups, or starters who eventually got benched. Quinn Ewers, Brady Cook, Justin Fields, Dillon Gabriel, Spencer Rattler, Tyler Huntley — what all those QBs have in common is that they are not in the same class as the Chargers’ Justin Herbert. The only quarterback that New England played this season that is in the same tier as Herbert is the Bills’ Josh Allen. Buffalo scored 27.5 Points-Per-Game against them. So I am taking all the Patriots’ defensive numbers with a grain of salt. Using the DVOA net efficiency numbers by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN), New England ranks just 15th in the league. Head coach Mike Vrabel’s team also enjoyed some of the best fumble luck in the league by recovering 61.8% of the fumbles in their games, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye looks like a keeper and is a legitimate MVP candidate — but he was able to feast on a lot of bad defenses. His 31 touchdown passes and eight interceptions are tempered by the deeper metrics that indicate he only had 27 “Big-Time Throws” and committed 17 Turnover-Worthy Plays. Now Maye makes his postseason debut against what may very well be the best defense he has ever played against. The Patriots have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after covering the point spread in three games in a row. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home when laying up to seven points. Los Angeles head coach Jim Harbaugh was able to rest his key starters last week. Quarterback Justin Herbert claims the injured left hand he is playing through feels better than at any time since that mishap. Running back Omarion Hampton returns from his injury to bolster the backfield. The Achilles heel of this team is their banged-up offensive line, missing tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt due to season-ending injuries. But that has been a problem for over half the season — and here they still are. Furthermore, this is a nice matchup for Herbert since the Patriots rank in the bottom-five in the league in Adjusted Pressure Rate — and they rank 31st in the NFL since Week Nine in Pressure Rate when not sending extra rushers. The Chargers defense should keep them in this game — they rank second in the NFL in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed in the last ten weeks. And after ranking second best in opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s unit ranks fourth in that metric this season. New England, on the other hand, ranks 30th this season in opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate. If you do not think the Chargers have the better quarterback tonight, at this point in their respective careers, then I will need the contact information of your supplier. With Herbert under center, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 14 of their 20 games on the road as an underdog — and they are 12-2-1 ATS in their 15 games as a dog getting more than three points with Herbert.  

FINAL TAKE: Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans teams failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 5 playoff games — and they never advanced farther than the AFC championship game. Harbaugh got the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl (and then won a national championship at Michigan). In his NFL head coaching career, Harbaugh’s team has covered the point spread in 12 of their 17 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (384) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (377) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (379). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-7-1) has lost four games in a row after their 16-3 loss at Minnesota as a 13-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 19-16 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay is stumbling into the playoffs with four straight losses — and they did not cover the point spread in any of those four games. But head coach Matt LaFleur did get to rest starters last week. The Packers have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games when failing to cover the point spread in four games in a row since LaFleur took over. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in all 5 games in his tenure after playing a game where they did not score more than nine points. With running back Josh Jacobs declaring his injured knee finally feels healthy again after not playing last week, expect a heavy run script from the Packers that will be looking to win that battle at the line of scrimmage. The Bears surrender 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. Chicago played their starters last week against the Lions, striving to secure the number one seed in the NFC playoff bracket, but they only gained 267 yards against the suspect Detroit defense. Quarterback Caleb Williams has made significant strides in his sophomore season in the NFL — but most notably, his brightest moments have been in clutch situations. He still remains a quarterback that is just one of three who have a “Bad Throw Rate” over 20% this season, joining J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix. I worry about him throwing into the expected wind tonight. Williams also ranks 28th in the league in the composite Expected Points Added per Dropback + completion percentage above expected completion percentage metric. The weather is not going to help the offenses or kicking games. The temperature is expected to be in the low-30s tonight in Chicago. That’s good football weather — but catching the ball becomes trickier when the ball gets that cold. The bigger concern is the winds that will start at 15 miles per hour and gust into the mid-20 MPH range. That impacts both the accuracy of the passes and the accuracy of field goals and extra points. I think Love is in a better position to adapt to the weather, given his six years in the league playing at Lambeau Field (three as a starter) and his three playoff games. This is the biggest game in Williams’ life after never competing in the college football playoffs with USC. The Bears thrived due to their league-leading +22 net turnover margin — but that is not a sustainable advantage they can maintain. Winning the turnover battle helped them win seven games by six points or less. But Chicago has just a 2-4 record against fellow NFC North rivals — and they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 6 games. They also got outscored by -6.0 Points-Per-Game and got outgained by -37.2 net Yards-Per-Game in those six contests. Excluding forcing turnovers, the Bears’ defense ranks 30th in Opponent Expected Points Added per play. 

FINAL TAKE: While the Packers won the first meeting between these two teams by a 28-21 score at Lambeau Field on December 7th, the rematch in Chicago two weeks later on December 20th saw the Bears win by a 22-16 score in overtime. That game was brutal for us because there were several coin flip plays that went Chicago’s way, even before they recovered an onside kick. Green Bay dominated most of that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opportunities to avenge a loss. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (377) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (377) and the Chicago Bears (379). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-7-1) has lost four games in a row after their 16-3 loss at Minnesota as a 13-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 19-16 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather, the expected game script, and the familiarity of both those teams should lead to a lower scoring game — and it would not be very surprising if one or both of these teams fails to reach 20 points. The weather is not going to help the offenses or kicking games. The temperature is expected to be in the low-30s tonight in Chicago. That’s good football weather — but catching the ball becomes trickier when the ball gets that cold. The bigger concern is the winds that will start at 15 miles per hour and gust into the mid-20 MPH range. That impacts both the accuracy of the passes and the accuracy of field goals and extra points. It also impacts the game management of two head coaches who range from pretty aggressive on fourth downs (Matt LaFleur) to maniacal (Ben Johnson). Frankly, I don’t trust either head coach when it comes to fourth down play-calling because they too often think about their gimmicks. Former head coach Marty Schottenheimer used to preach that is “gotta have it moments, think players, not plays.” In those moments, LaFleuer thinks plays, not players — and Johnson too often thinks high-risk trick plays, not just plays, and certainly not players (Johnson still thinks he is the star of the show — and it is one of his weaknesses early in his head coaching career). The Packers come into this game rested — and that should help their defense step up after struggling a bit after the season-ending injury to Micah Parsons. Green Bay has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road after a straight-up loss to a fellow NFC North rival. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. With running back Josh Jacobs declaring his injured knee finally feels healthy again after not playing last week, expect a heavy run-script from the Packers that will be looking to win that battle at the line of scrimmage. The Bears surrender 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and Green Bay has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who give up 4.5 or more YPC, including five of those seven games played on the road. Despite all the weapons this team has on offense, they are only generating 332.6 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 23.0 Points-Per-Game. Their defense does rank in the top ten in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Chicago played their starters last week against the Lions, striving to secure the number one seed in the NFC playoff bracket, but they only gained 267 yards against the suspect Detroit defense. Quarterback Caleb Williams has made significant strides in his sophomore season in the NFL — but most notably, his brightest moments have been in clutch situations. He still remains a quarterback that is just one of three who have a “Bad Throw Rate” over 20% this season, joining J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix. I worry about him throwing into the expected wind tonight. Williams also ranks 28th in the league in the composite Expected Points Added per Dropback + completion percentage above expected completion percentage metric. Even without those underlying numbers, I was expecting a heavy run-script from Johnson, where he is quite savvy in drawing up plays. In their two previous games against Green Bay this season, they generated 4.97 Yards-Per-Carry with 288 rushing yards on 58 carries. While the trade for Micah Parsons was mostly lauded by the national media as the greatest sports heist since the Los Angeles Lakers decided to pay Luka Doncic $165 million dollars to lost the 30 pounds he was unwilling to drop with Dallas, the dirty little secret regarding this trade was that it would expose the Packers run defense by sending back nose tackle Kenny Clark in the deal. Baltimore ran for 307 yards against them last month — and Carolina also gouged them for 163 yards in November. The formula for success is running on Green Bay and wearing them down. Johnson will appreciate this. As it is, Chicago has played 6 of their 8 games Under the Total at home this season. They have also played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total this season against fellow NFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: While the Packers won the first meeting between these two teams by a 28-21 score at Lambeau Field on December 7th, the rematch in Chicago two weeks later on December 20th saw the Bears win by a 22-16 score. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (377) and the Chicago Bears (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (275) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (276) in the semifinals of the college football playoffs. THE SITUATION: Oregon (13-1) has won eight games in a row after their 23-0 shutout upset victory as a 1-point underdog on January 1st. Indiana (14-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 38-3 win against Alabama as a 7.5-point favorite on January 1st. The Peach Bowl takes place at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks completely stymied Texas Tech in their shutout win by limiting them to 215 total yards. The Ducks rank fourth in the nation in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed and fifth in Opponents Yards Per Play Allowed. They should build on their momentum for this rematch with Indiana. Oregon has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games after a win by 17 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Despite losing at home by a 30-20 score as a 7-point favorite back on October 11th, the Ducks’ defense was largely successful against the Hoosiers in that first game. Indiana was held to just 326 yards — and one of their touchdowns came from an interception returned for a touchdown. They averaged only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in their ground game, and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza gained only 215 yards in the air with zero Big-Time Throws. Since that game, Oregon has shifted from Cover-3 to Cover-2 in their pass coverage to allow safety Dillon Thieneman to freelance and roam the field. He had a season-high in tackles last week. Indiana held the Crimson Tide to just 193 yards last week. The Ducks generate 7.0 Yards-Per-Play this season — and Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games since Curt Cignetti took over as head coach last season against teams who average 5.9 or more YPP. Oregon holds their opponents to 4.3 YPP — and the Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games against teams that do not allow more than 6.0 YPP. This will be the seventh time that Indiana will be playing a team with a winning percentage of 75% or higher under Cignetti — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 6 previous contests. 

FINAL TAKE: Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 opportunities for revenge since Lanning took over as their head coach. And while the Hoosiers are the number one ranked team in the nation, the Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams who are ranked higher than them in the Associated Press top 25. 10* CFB Oregon-Indiana ESPN Special with the Oregon Ducks (275) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (275) and the Indiana Hoosiers (276) in the semifinals of the college football playoffs. THE SITUATION: Oregon (13-1) has won eight games in a row after their 23-0 shutout upset victory as a 1-point underdog on January 1st. Indiana (14-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 38-3 win against Alabama as a 7.5-point favorite on January 1st. The Peach Bowl takes place at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Oregon may generate 38.0 Points-Per-Game — but that is mostly a product of them being flat-track bullies. This Ducks team can get stuck into rock fights. They only gained 309 total yards against the Red Raiders last week. There were only 34 combined points scored in their 18-16 victory against Iowa. There were only 28 combined points scored in their 21-7 victory against Wisconsin in a game where they only gained 335 yards. And in their first meeting with the Hoosiers, they scored only 20 points in their 10-point loss. That contest was telling as their offensive line looked slow and weak against the Indiana defensive front. Oregon averaged only 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry in that game. The Hoosiers pressured quarterback Dante Moore on 20 of his 42 dropbacks — and they registered six sacks. Moore’s 35.1 Quarterback Rating that game was a season-low. So were his team’s 267 total yards and 4.2 Yards-Per-Attempt. Now, with running back Jordan Davidson out for the season due to an injury, it is difficult to be overly optimistic about the Ducks’ offense faring much better in this rematch (and their running back room is suddenly thin after three backs left the team for the transfer portal). Against Indiana, Texas Tech, Iowa, and Penn State — all top 25 defenses — Moore’s QBR was just 51.8. He had just four touchdown passes and a 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average in those four games. It’s not complicated. When enjoying a clean pocket this season on 77% of his dropbacks, Moore ranks third in Pro Football Focus’ Passer Grade — and his 27 Big-Time Throws lead the nation when not facing pressuring. But in 23% of times when he did face pressure from a pass rush, his PFF grade plummets to 51st in the nation — and he had only two Big-Time Throws under those circumstances. As it is, Oregon has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Ducks completely stymied Texas Tech in that shutout win by limiting them to 215 total yards. The Ducks rank fourth in the nation in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed and fifth in Opponents Yards Per Play Allowed. Their defense was largely successful against the Hoosiers in that first game. Indiana was held to just 326 yards — and one of their touchdowns came from an interception returned for a touchdown. They averaged only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in their ground game, and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza gained only 215 yards in the air with zero Big-Time Throws. Since that game, Oregon has shifted from Cover-3 to Cover-2 in their pass coverage to allow safety Dillon Thieneman to freelance and roam the field. He had a season-high in tackles last week. Indiana held the Crimson Tide to just 193 yards last week. Head coach Curt Cignetti embraced a ball-control approach by running the ball on 43 of their 66 snaps from scrimmage, which helped them control time of possession with their offense on the field for 34:21 minutes of that game. Mendoza threw the ball only 16 times. This will likely be the game plan for the Hoosiers again this week since the Oregon defensive line is their relative weakness — they rank 63rd in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed — and that should help shorten this game down. Indiana played in two rock fights this season — a 13-10 victory against Ohio State and a 20-15 win against Iowa. Only Penn State scored more than one touchdown against them this season — and only Michigan State gained more yards than their season average against them. The Hoosiers played four ranked opponents this season — Ohio State, Alabama, Illinois, and the Ducks — and they held all four of those teams to season lows in points scored. The Buckeyes, Crimson Tide, and Fighting Illini combined for only 23 points and 83 rushing yards against them. Indiana leads the nation in Havoc Rate and Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed — and they rank fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 29% conversion rate on third downs. It will be a struggle for Oregon to score — but their style of play should frustrate the Hoosiers' zeal to score their share of points. Indiana has played 6 of their 9 games under Cignetti Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. Oregon generates 206.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game and 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Hoosiers have played all 3 games Under the Total against teams that average 200 or more rushing YPG and 4 of their 6 games Under the Total against teams that average 4.75 or more YPC in the Cignetti era. The Ducks hold their opponents to only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and Indiana has played all 4 of their games Under the Total under Cignetti against teams who do not allow more than 5.7 YPA. 

FINAL TAKE: The Hoosiers have played only two games on a neutral field since Cignetti took over — they were favored in both those games and both of those contests finished Under the Total. The Ducks have played 7 games on a neutral field in Lanning’s tenure — and 5 of those games finished Under the Total. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (275) and the Indiana Hoosiers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (273) minus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (274) in the college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (12-2) has won six games in a row after their 24-14 upset victory against Ohio State as an 8-point underdog in the quarterfinals on December 31st. Mississippi (13-1) has won seven games in a row after their 39-34 upset victory against Georgia as a 6-point underdog in their quarterfinals contest on January 1st. The Fiesta Bowl is played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami (FL) became the first team in eight years to hold the Buckeyes scoreless in the first half last week. They held the explosive Ohio State offense to just 332 total yards. Fourth-year head coach Mario Cristobal declared in his sideline interview for that game that the winner of that game will be the side that is more physical — and I do not think he will be changing his tune against Ole Miss. From my vantage point, the Hurricanes have the better offensive and defensive lines in this matchup. Miami (FL) has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning three or more games in a row. Running back Mark Fletcher has emerged in the two playoff games with 262 rushing yards. Miami will continue to feed Fletcher against a suspect Rebels run defense that ranks just 67th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and opposing rushers generate 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Cristobal will not want too much asked of fifth-year senior quarterback Carson Beck, who can get into trouble with interceptions. He has only thrown for 241 passing yards and averaged 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in his two playoff games — but he has not thrown an interception. He is 36-5 as a starting quarterback with plenty of big-game experience. On defense, defensive end Rueben Bain, Jr. and defensive tackle Akeem Mesidor have dominated both the Texas A&M and Ohio State offensive lines. Just in the playoffs, they have combined for 33 pressures on the quarterback, eight sacks, and nine tackles for loss. They are giving up only 285.1 total YPG, which is resulting in 13.1 PPG — and they have only given up 17 combined points in both playoff games. The Ole Miss offense is explosive as they generate 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But Miami has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams that average 7.9 or more YPA. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Ole Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Senior quarterback Trinidad Chambliss looked outstanding last week in his ability to improvise and make big plays with his arm and his legs. But Georgia’s pass rush was their weakness this season — the test Bain and Mesidor will present to Chambliss tonight is much tougher. I appreciate that Mississippi gets into a bunch of high-scoring games — but those were against opponents looking to attack their defense. I suspect they will get lulled into the rock fight that Cristobal wants this game to become. I have given much thought to the Hurricanes not stacking up well against a team from the SEC in this matchup. But Miami has the better resume with victories against Texas A&M and Ohio State, while the Rebels beat a flawed Georgia team (in a revenge game) and Tulane in the playoffs. Furthermore, while the ACC has struggled against the Big Ten and SEC in past postseason showdowns, ACC teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games against those two conferences this year. I’m not sure that reflects the improvement of the ACC as much as the negative effect of the transfer portal and NIL bringing Big Ten and SEC programs back to the pack. What I do know is that the weakest link in this game is the Mississippi defense. That unit ranks 126th in Havoc Rate (after ranking third in that metric last season) and 77th in Pro Football Focus’s tackling grading system. On the road, they are surrendering 417.8 total YPG, which is resulting in 27.8 PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, I just can’t get over the intangibles in this game. Ole Miss has lost two assistant coaches on offense this week, Joe Cox and George McDonald, who are moving with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, Jr., to join Lane Kiffin’s staff at LSU. While Kiffin granted permission for Weis to continue this week, he did not do the same for Cox and McDonald after both coached the game against Georgia. Cox was the tight ends coach and co-offensive coordinator. McDonald was the wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator. Sure, Weis calls the plays — and there will be other assistants now picking up that slack. But this is an Ole Miss offense now missing two important assistant coaches — and they already lost Kiffin, who was the supposed guru of this entire operation. The inexperience of new head coach Pete Golding was already a red flag for the Rebels — and they have to play this game with one day less of rest and preparation than Cristobal’s crew. Then there is this: the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams ranked in the Associated Press top 25 rankings. With --3s now the consensus line for Miami, I endorse (and bet). 10* CFB Miami (FL)-Mississippi ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (273) minus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (273) and the Mississippi Rebels (274) in the college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (12-2) has won six games in a row after their 24-14 upset victory against Ohio State as an 8-point underdog in the quarterfinals on December 31st. Mississippi (13-1) has won seven games in a row after their 39-34 upset victory against Georgia as a 6-point underdog in their quarterfinals contest on January 1st. The Fiesta Bowl is played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes became the first team in eight years to hold the Buckeyes scoreless in the first half last week. They held the explosive Ohio State offense to just 332 total yards. But they only managed to generate 291 yards of offense themselves. Fourth-year head coach Mario Cristobal declared in his sideline interview for that game that the winner of that game will be the side that is more physical — and I do not think he will be changing his tune against Ole Miss. The former Miami (FL) offensive lineman is not afraid of getting into rock fights — and that was exactly what they found themselves in the first round of the playoffs in their 10-3 win at Texas A&M. The Hurricanes already rank 130th in the nation in seconds per play. Running back Mark Fletcher has emerged in the two playoff games with 262 rushing yards. Miami will continue to feed Fletcher against a suspect Rebels run defense that ranks just 67th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and opposing rushers generate 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Cristobal will not want too much asked of fifth-year senior quarterback Carson Beck, who can get into trouble with interceptions. He has only thrown for 241 passing yards and averaged 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in his two playoff games. Beck faced the Ole Miss defense last season in a 28-10 loss in a game where his mistakes helped put the game out of reach. Away from home, Miami (FL) only generates 376.6 total Yards-Per-Game which results in 26.0 Points-Per-Game. The Hurricanes have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Additionally, in Cristobal’s head coaching career in the 38 games where his team was laying 3.5 to 10 points, 27 of those games finished Under the Total. On defense, defensive end Rueben Bain, Jr. and defensive tackle Akeem Mesidor have dominated both the Texas A&M and Ohio State offensive lines. Just in the playoffs, they have combined for 33 pressures on the quarterback, eight sacks, and nine tackles for loss. They are giving up only 285.1 total YPG, which is resulting in 13.1 PPG — and they have only given up 17 combined points in both playoff games. The Ole Miss offense is explosive as they generate 6.7 Yards-Per-Play and 37.6 PPG. But Miami has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG, including six of those nine games played on the road. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.9 or more YPP — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road against those offenses. Mississippi held the Bulldogs to just 343 total yards last week. They are holding their opponents to 340.4 total YPG which is resulting in 20.4 PPG. The Rebels have played 13 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total after beating a fellow SEC rival. They have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have then played 4 straight Unders after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with six days or less between contests. The short turnaround is compounded by the loss of two assistant coaches on offense, Joe Cox and George McDonald, who are moving with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, Jr., to join Lane Kiffin’s staff at LSU. While Kiffin granted permission for Weis to continue this week, he did not do the same for Cox and McDonald after both coached the game against Georgia. Cox was the tight ends coach and co-offensive coordinator. McDonald was the wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator. Sure, Weis calls the plays — and there will be other assistants now picking up that slack. But this is an Ole Miss offense now missing two important assistant coaches — and they already lost Kiffin who was the supposed guru of this entire operation. Granted, senior quarterback Trinidad Chambliss looked outstanding last week in his ability to improvise and make big plays with his arm and his legs. But Georgia’s pass rush was their weakness this season — the test Bain and Mesidor will present to Chambliss tonight is much tougher. I appreciate that Mississippi gets into a bunch of high-scoring games — but those were against opponents looking to attack their defense. I suspect they will get lulled into the rock fight that Cristobal wants this game to become. 

FINAL TAKE: Despite their high-flying offense in the last six seasons directed by former head coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels have played 5 straight bowl games/playoff games Under the Total. With new head coach Pete Golding, also the defensive coordinator, I continue to expect his defensive mindset to impact his game management — especially when it comes to going for it on fourth down. Kiffin’s fondness for going for it on fourth downs generated 79 additional points from those successful extended drives this season before he defected to LSU. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (273) and the Mississippi Rebels (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (350) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (349). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (9-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 13-6 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (8-8) has won two of their last three games after their 41-24 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday night. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: It was the Derrick Henry show for the Ravens last week as offensive coordinator Todd Monken finally dialed up plenty of touches for the running back, who responded with 216 yards and four touchdowns on 36 carries. The Steelers will be prepared for Henry to likely get north of 30 touches in this contest — and it remains to be seen how his endurance will hold up. Quarterback Lamar Jackson returns to the field for Baltimore after missing time due to his back injury. He is likely not close to 100% but will return for this must-win game to make the postseason. His sore back will limit his mobility, which is pretty much his superpower. Frankly, he has been slowed all season by various ailments, which explains why he has only rushed for more than 27 yards once in his last eight games after beginning the regular season with 70 rushing yards in that 41-40 scoring best in Week One at Buffalo. Since Jackson’s initial return from injury in late October, the Ravens are scoring only 20.6 Points-Per-Game in his starts while never scoring more than 28 points (and that was his first start back on October 30th at Miami). On the other hand, Baltimore has scored 30 or more points without him twice after last week. Furthermore, there is the ongoing stat regarding the Ravens’ outstanding win-loss record with Jackson under center against NFC teams that are not familiar with him and his unique mobility skills — that is something that those NFC teams cannot replicate in practice in the lead-up to the game. But the flip side of this is that opponents who are familiar with Jackson tend to have more success in slowing him down. There is no team that is more familiar with frustrating Jackson and his specific tendencies than the Steelers. In his career, Jackson has a 101.9 Quarterback Rating, he averages 194.5 passing Yards-Per-Game, and he generates 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry. In his nine career regular season games against Pittsburgh, Jackson’s QBR drops to 72.8 — and he averages just 167.0 passing YPG and 5.1 YPC. He has thrown only nine touchdown passes and ten interceptions in those nine regular season games — and his 57.4 completion percentage in those contests is his lowest of any opponent that he has played at least three times. With Jackson under center, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the Steelers while losing five of those games outright. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win this season. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 13 games when favored, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those contests. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 25 of their 34 games under head coach Mike Tomlin after failing to score 14 or more points, including seven of their last eight games when playing at home. Wide receiver D.K. Metcalf remains suspended for this game, which does not help the Steelers' cause — but the defense should get a shot in the arm with the expected return of linebacker T.J. Watt for this game. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They are 40-19-1 ATS in their 60 games as a single-digit underdog under Tomlin — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their 29 games at home as a dog getting up to seven points in his tenure. Furthermore, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 8 straight games at home against fellow AFC North rivals. And in their last 26 games in January under Tomlin’s leadership, they have covered the point spread in 17 of those games.   

FINAL TAKE: In the Tomlin era, Pittsburgh is 14-4-2 ATS in their 20 games against the Ravens as an underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (350) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (349). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (349) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (350). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-8) has won two of their last three games after their 41-24 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday night. Pittsburgh (9-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 13-6 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It was the Derrick Henry show for the Ravens last week as offensive coordinator Todd Monken finally dialed up plenty of touches for the running back, who responded with 216 yards and four touchdowns on 36 carries. The Steelers will be prepared for Henry to likely get north of 30 touches in this contest — and it remains to be seen how his endurance will hold up. Quarterback Lamar Jackson returns to the field for Baltimore after missing time due to his back injury. He is likely not close to 100% but will return for this must-win game to make the postseason. His sore back will limit his mobility, which is pretty much his superpower. Frankly, he has been slowed all season by various ailments, which explains why he has only rushed for more than 27 yards once in his last eight games after beginning the regular season with 70 rushing yards in that 41-40 scoring best in Week One at Buffalo. Since Jackson’s initial return from injury in late October, the Ravens are scoring only 20.6 Points-Per-Game in his starts while never scoring more than 28 points (and that was his first start back on October 30th at Miami). On the other hand, Baltimore has scored 30 or more points without him twice after last week. Furthermore, there is the ongoing stat regarding the Ravens’ outstanding win-loss record with Jackson under center against NFC teams that are not familiar with him and his unique mobility skills — that is something that those NFC teams cannot replicate in practice in the lead-up to the game. But the flip side of this is that opponents who are familiar with Jackson tend to have more success in slowing him down. There is no team that is more familiar with frustrating Jackson and his specific tendencies than the Steelers. In his career, Jackson has a 101.9 Quarterback Rating, he averages 194.5 passing Yards-Per-Game, and he generates 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry. In his nine career regular season games against Pittsburgh, Jackson’s QBR drops to 72.8 — and he averages just 167.0 passing YPG and 5.1 YPC. He has thrown only nine touchdown passes and ten interceptions in those nine regular season games — and his 57.4 completion percentage in those contests is his lowest of any opponent that he has played at least three times. The Steelers allow their opponents to average 246.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — but Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road against opponents who surrender 235 or more passing YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens struggled early in slowing down their opponents — but, just like last season, they used their bye-week to self-scout and make some critical adjustments. Acquiring free safety Aldhi Gilman was a big boost since he was trusted to roam the backside, which freed up Kyle Hamilton to move closer to the line of scrimmage and deploy his multiple talents in a variety of ways. In the last two months, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 333.3 total YPG, resulting in 19.5 PPG. The Ravens are generally an Over team under head coach John Harbaugh — but that changes in January, when they have played 23 of their 32 games Under the Total in his tenure. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home for this final game of the regular season where they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total after a two-game road trip. Without wide receiver D.K. Metcalf last week, the Steelers managed only 291 yards of offense in their loss to the Browns. He remains suspended for this game, and his loss is devastating since he is the team’s only credible deep threat. Aaron Rodgers completed 21 of 39 passes for 168 yards — and those were the fewest passing yards in his career when attempting at least 39 passes. He completed only 3 of his 15 passes of more than 10 air yards in that game. Opposing defenses can cheat closer to the line of scrimmage because Rodgers simply is not going to beat them over the top. The two and three-tight end sets are interesting counters as offensive coordinator Arthur Smith tries to basketball way through with a horizontal passing attack — but even that will be limited this week with Darnell Washington out with a forearm injury. The Steelers only generate 281.0 total YPG when playing at home. The defense should get a shot in the arm with the expected return of linebacker T.J. Watt for this game. Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 15 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 22 of their 34 games Under the Total at home as an underdog under head coach Mike Tomlin, including 8 of those last 12 games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as a dog getting up to seven points. Baltimore scores 25.0 PPG — and the Steelers have played 8 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. And while the Ravens generate 157.8 rushing YPG, Pittsburgh has played 10 of their 12 games at home with Tomlin Under the Total against teams that average 150 or more rushing YPG. Additionally, the Steelers have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against AFC North rivals. 

FINAL TAKE: The temperature will be in the mid-20s for this contest, although the winds will be light and rain is not expected. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total, including four straight Unders when playing at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (349) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (350). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (363) plays the points versus the Denver Broncos (364). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-5) had won four games in a row before their 20-16 upset loss at home against Houston as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Denver (13-3) has won 12 of their last 13 games after their 20-13 victory at Kansas City as a 13.5-point favorite on Christmas Day two Thursdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles head coach Jim Harbaugh is resting his starters for this game, with his team qualified to play in the postseason next week but with not great chances to improve on their seeding position. Because of this decision, the line has moved to the Broncos now laying around 14 points — and that is simply too many points even for this situation. Roster size limitations mean that Harbaugh cannot rest every starter even if he wanted to because there is simply not enough backup room for position groups — especially if he wants to not play banged-up players who are on the second unit. Quarterback Justin Herbert will not play — but this gives Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman the opportunity to test backup Trey Lance in case he is needed at some point in the playoffs. Lance has not shown much in mostly mop-up duty this season — but I am not going to be surprised if he has developed as a quarterback with another year under Harbaugh’s guidance. I also suspect Roman will have a specific set of plays unique to him to take advantage of his mobility. One thing we know for sure is that Harbaugh will be coaching his team to win this game even if he is resting key players. As it is, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. They are also 10-0-1 ATS in their 11 games against fellow AFC West rivals under Harbaugh. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their 14 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games as an underdog under Harbaugh, including four of those five games played on the road. Denver needs to win this game to clinch the number one seed for the AFC side of the playoff bracket. But if and when the Broncos seize control of this game, head coach Sean Payton has similar incentives to get his key players off the field and not risk injury. He just cares about the win — not covering the point spread. As it is, Denver has only two victories this season of more than one scoring possession. Their net point differential is only +4.6 Points-Per-Game this season. As we frustratingly experienced on Christmas Day in their game against the Chiefs, this team finds ways to keep their opponents around, even if they are overmatched. They only gained 303 yards against Kansas City in that game despite having their offense on the field for 39:28 minutes. The Chargers' defense will remain tough to move the ball on, even if several key players are on the bench. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC, including four of their last five games against fellow AFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The betting public tends to overvalue the impact of resting starters in Week 18. Road teams resting their starters in the final week of the regular season remain 24-12-1 ATS. Denver does remember losing in Los Angeles against the Chargers by a 23-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on September 21st — but the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 26 same-season rematch contests. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (363) plays the points versus the Denver Broncos (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (361) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (362). THE SITUATION: Seattle (13-3) has won six games in a row after their 27-10 win at Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (12-4) has won six games in a row as well with their 42-38 victory against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle continues to flex their muscles on defense as they held the Panthers to just 139 yards last week. The Seahawks rank second in the NFL in both opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed and in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). More importantly, head coach Mike Macdonald has demonstrated that his defensive schemes can slow down Kyle Shanahan’s offense. In his first game against the 49ers as Seattle’s head coach in early October, the Niners did score 36 points. I will note that this game was played a couple weeks before the Seahawks acquired middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Miami which allowed Macdonald to make some midseason adjustments which led to some significant improvements from his defense. Seattle held San Francisco to just 17 points in their rematch last season — and the 49ers only scored 17 points in the first game between these teams in September. Even going back to Macdonald’s time as the defensive coordinator for Baltimore, when the Ravens plays the Niners on Christmas Day in 2023, San Francisco scored only 19 points in that game. Seattle has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road when the Total is set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. San Francisco generated 7.4 Yards-Per-Play against the Bears last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after generating 7.0 or more YPP in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a straight-up win at home. The 49ers’ injury list remains long — and the status of both left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall remains questionable. San Francisco really misses Nick Bosa since he was their best rusher. The Niners are last in the league with a sack rate of 3.13% of their opponents' dropbacks. Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold can make mistakes when under pressure — but he can light up opposing defenses if he is given time to find open receivers. The Seahawks average 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games at home against opponents who average 7.0 or more Yards-Per-Attempt. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home against fellow NFC West rivals. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: It has been rainy in the Bay Area for the last day, but things have let up a bit. The field at Levi’s Stadium may be soggy. Rain could reappear as this game goes on — and there may be wind gusts up to 15 miles per hour. Those conditions will not help the 49ers continue to score 40 points per game — advantage Seahawks. Seattle is looking to avenge a 17-13 loss at home against San Francisco as a 1.5-point home underdog on September 7th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The road team has also covered the point spread in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 20* NFL Seattle-LA Rams ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Seattle Seahawks (361) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (362). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (361) and the San Francisco 49ers (362). THE SITUATION: Seattle (13-3) has won six games in a row after their 27-10 win at Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (12-4) has won six games in a row as well with their 42-38 victory against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle continues to flex their muscles on defense as they held the Panthers to just 139 yards last week. The Seahawks rank second in the NFL in both opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed and in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). More importantly, head coach Mike Macdonald has demonstrated that his defensive schemes can slow down Kyle Shanahan’s offense. In his first game against the 49ers as Seattle’s head coach in early October, the Niners did score 36 points. I will note that this game was played a couple of weeks before the Seahawks acquired middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Miami, which allowed Macdonald to make some midseason adjustments, which led to some significant improvements from his defense. Seattle held San Francisco to just 17 points in their rematch last season — and the 49ers only scored 17 points in the first game between these teams in September. Even going back to Macdonald’s time as the defensive coordinator for Baltimore, when the Ravens played the Niners on Christmas Day in 2023, San Francisco scored only 19 points in that game. The Seahawks have played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when favored by up to seven points. Additionally, Seattle has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 29 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have played three straight Overs, they have then played both games Under the Total in the last three seasons after playing three or more Overs in a row. The 49ers’ injury list remains long — and the status of both left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall remains questionable (update: both are out for tonight’s game). The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals. 

FINAL TAKE: It has been rainy in the Bay Area for the last day, but things have let up a bit. The field at Levi’s Stadium may be soggy. Rain could reappear as this game goes on — and there may be wind gusts up to 15 miles per hour. Those conditions will not help the 49ers continue to score 40 points per game — advantage the Seahawks’ defense. In taking the Over in the Bears-49ers Sunday night game last week, I mentioned that I needed to raise the threshold of evidence I need to take Unders when getting involved with Kyle Shanahan teams. Here is it for this contest: the 49ers have played 31 of their 53 games Under the Total under Shanahan when listed in the +/- 3-point range, including five of those last eight games at home. 10* NFL Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (361) and the San Francisco 49ers (362). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (346) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (345). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (7-9) has lost four games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss at Miami as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Carolina (8-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 27-10 loss at home against Seattle as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Tampa Bay last week — and they have been a frustrating team in the second half of the season by failing to cover the point spread in eight straight games. But injuries have ravaged this team. On paper, this offense should be explosive now that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are healthy again. I think quarterback Baker Mayfield is playing through some injuries. He is being asked to do too much — he threw the ball 44 times last week, despite it being a close game. The Buccaneers only ran the ball 16 times for 53 yards despite Bucky Irving, Rashaad White, and Sean Tucker all being healthy. They need to run the ball more. Some of their problems have been a banged-up offensive line — but with left tackle Tristan Wirfs practicing this week and now listed as probable, that unit is as healthy as it has been all season. During Tampa Bay’s recent four-game losing streak, all four of those games were decided by four points or less. Six of their nine losses have been by six points or less. Carolina only generated 139 yards of offense last week. Now the Panthers go on the road where they are only generating 312.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.3 Points-Per-Game. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win this afternoon. They won the first meeting at home by a 23-20 score as a 3-point favorite on December 21st last month — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 rematch contests when they won the first meeting. The Buccaneers must win this game, and then New Orleans must beat Atlanta tomorrow to win the NFC South and qualify for the postseason. Under head coach Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their 14 opportunities for revenge. 25* NFC South Game of Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (346) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (345). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (271) and the SMU Mustangs (272) in the Holiday Bowl. THE SITUATION: Arizona (9-3) has won five games in a row after their 23-7 victory at Arizona State as a 2-point favorite on November 28th. SMU (8-4) saw their two-game losing streak snapped in a 38-35 upset loss at California as a 13.5-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held their in-state rival Sun Devils to just 214 yards of offense in their last game. That side of the ball has played very well in the second half of the season by holding their final five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game and no more than 24 points in any of those contests. They are holding their opponents to just 301.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.9 PPG. Their defense ranks 13th in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed — and they rank in the top six in opponent EPA allowed on early downs. They also rank third in the nation in opponent EPA per dropback allowed. Arizona has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Head coach Brent Brennan’s teams in his head coaching career have played 21 of their 31 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow conference rival, including five of those eight games with the Wildcats. Arizona enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin against Arizona State — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Additionally, Brennan’s teams have played 19 of their 30 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents, including three of those four games since taking over the Wildcats. SMU had not allowed more than 24 points in seven straight games before their upset loss against Cal. The Mustangs' bend but don’t break defense gave up 391.3 total YPG, but that only resulted in 20.7 PPG. Their defense ranks fourth in the nation in opponent EPA per rushing attempt allowed. SMU has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing on the road. They have played 5 straight Unders when coming off a bye week. Furthermore, head coach Rhett Lashlee teams have played 14 of their 19 games Under the Total when playing a non-conference opponent. 

FINAL TAKE: Lashlee’s teams have played all 10 of their games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field against a non-conference opponent. Brennan’s teams have played 4 of their 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. 10* CFB Arizona-SMU Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (271) and the SMU Mustangs (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (263) and the Georgia Bulldogs (264) in the quarterfinals of the college football playoffs. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (12-1) has won six games in a row after their 41-10 win against Tulane as a 16.5-point favorite in the first round of the college football playoffs on December 20th. Georgia (12-1) has won nine games in a row after their 28-7 victory against Alabama as a 1-point favorite in the SEC championship game on December 6th. This Sugar Bowl is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs held the potent Crimson Tide offense to just 209 total yards and 3.8 Yards-Per-Play. Their defense has transformed into an elite unit in the second half of the season — and it may have been the fourth quarter against Ole Miss that triggered the improvement. Georgia got torched in the first three quarters of that game by giving up 35 points. But they held the Rebels scoreless in the final 15 minutes and rallied from a nine-point deficit to win that game by a 43-35 score. Since that game, the Bulldogs are only giving up 11.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games. In their 27 quarters played, they have only given up seven touchdowns — and two of those TDs were in garbage time by Mississippi State. In their last four games, they have not allowed more than 10 points while holding those opponents to just 7.3 PPG, 4.3 YPP, and 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Their last four opponents have converted on just 10 of 47 attempts on third down — and they have scored on only one of seven trips inside the Red Zone. Georgia has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. On the other side of the ball, there are two red flags that concern me in this rematch contest. The Bulldogs offense ranks just 86th in Explosiveness. They also rank just 130th in Yards per Successful play which is another measure of their drives tending to be more methodical. Georgia has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 10 points. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on field turf where their speed on defense gets to thrive. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 7 games on the road against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or higher, 6 of those games finished Under the Total. Ole Miss has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when on the road after a win by 17 or more points. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Green Wave, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. This will be Pete Golding’s second game as their head coach? I suspect his defensive background as the team’s defensive coordinator will result in a more conservative game management, which will result in more Unders for this program until the market adjusts. I do not think Golding will be as aggressive on fourth downs as previous head coach Lane Kiffin, whose fondness for going for it on fourth downs generated 79 additional points from those successful extended drives this season before he defected to LSU.

FINAL TAKE: I worry about what adjustments offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. will make in this game after getting blanked in the fourth quarter in the first meeting between these two teams. Weis may be a fine coordinator who will be joining Kiffin in Baton Rouge — but Kiffin is considered the offensive guru. As it is, the Rebels have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (263) and the Georgia Bulldogs (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (259) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (260) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oregon (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 51-34 win against James Madison as a 20.5-point favorite in the first round of the college football playoffs. Texas Tech (12-1) has won six games in a row after their 34-7 win against BYU as a 13.5-point favorite in the Big 12 championship game on December 6th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: James Madison had a strong defensive line akin to good Power Four conference units — but Oregon made their defense look silly by generating 514 yards of offense in just 24:10 minutes. And while the Dukes gained 509 yards against them, most of that production came in the second half when the Ducks were in complete control and cruising. Oregon has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a blowout victory by 17 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after scoring 37 or more points, including 8 of those 12 games played on the road. Their offense ranks fourth in the nation in Points Per Drive, fueled by a diverse rushing attack that ranks second in the nation by generating 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Their defense ranks second in the nation in limiting explosive plays and fifth in avoiding missed or broken tackles. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Texas Tech has won all their games by 22 or more points — and their lone loss against Arizona State was when starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured. But the Red Raiders’ schedule was not challenging as it ranked just 68th toughest in the nation using the Jeff Sagarin rankings. Of more concern is that it is the worst ranking in Sagaran’s top 27 teams in the nation. Their non-conference schedule was against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State. They played four games against ranked opponents: BYU (twice), Utah, and Houston. Oregon’s schedule ranks 17th toughest in the nation according to Sagarin, featuring Penn State (pre-implosion in September) and USC. I suspect the Texas Tech defense will stand up — although the 26 points the Sun Devils put up against them may be a canary in the coal mine. But the offense can get stuck. The portal acquisitions for their offensive line have not been nearly as rewarding as those for their defensive line. Texas Tech ranks outside the top 95 in the nation in both Adjusted Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed. More concerning is that they rank 101st in the nation by only scoring touchdowns in 56% of their trips inside the Red Zone. They settled for field goals in their Red Zone trips at the 12th-highest rate in the FBS. In their three games against BYU (twice) and Utah, they scored touchdowns in only five of their 14 Red Zone trips for a 35% touchdown rate. The Ducks do rank 70th in opponent Red Zone touchdown rate — but they are also top ten in the nation by allowing only 2.3 Red Zone trips per game. If the Red Raiders do not improve their efficiency when they do get inside Oregon’s 20-yard line, they will be in trouble. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 15 games under head coach Joey McGuire in his tenure when the Total is set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range under McGuire. 


FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, I have two lingering concerns about the Red Raiders. All of their blowout victories leaves them untested in the fourth quarter in clutch time. That then combines with their lack of experience on the big stage like this. Taking on Oregon in the college football quarterfinals on New Year’s Day is not the same thing as playing BYU again in the Big 12 championship game. The Ducks played in the playoffs last season and have gutted out close games this year. Oregon has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage at 75% or higher. 10* CFB Oregon-Texas Tech ESPN Special with the Oregon Ducks (259) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (258) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) (257) in the quarterfinals of the college football playoffs. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (12-1) lost their first game of the season in the Big Ten championship game in their 13-10 upset loss against Indiana as a 3-point favorite. Miami (FL) reached the quarterfinals of the college football playoffs with their 10-3 upset win at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog on December 20th. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I’m still not sure what happened to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. They went into halftime with a 10-6 lead. They surrendered the lead midway through the third quarter and failed to score in the second half. Freshman quarterback Julian Sayin put up fine numbers as he completed 21 of 29 passes for 258 yards. He did take five sacks — and the strength of the Ohio State offensive line is a question when facing elite defensive fronts (like the Hurricanes). But I still left that game thinking the Buckeyes left a lot on the table — as if they were sandbagging their best tactics for the playoffs. This is a team that won all four of their playoff games to take the title last season after losing twice in the regular season — so it could be that head coach Ryan Day has simply decided the season is a marathon where some things need to be held back. He is calling the offensive plays again after offensive coordinator Brian Hartline was named the new head coach for South Florida — although he is staying on as the offensive coordinator, doing double duty until the Ohio State season is done. Day had called plays until last season when he hired Chip Kelly as his OC. I have never been more impressed with Day than in their redemption victory against Michigan last month, both with his game management against the Wolverines and with his post-game comments. OK, admittedly, I wish he would stop using the word toughness when it was obvious — and the final step when embracing “humility” is simply being humble rather than wearing Dan Campbell’s “Grit” t-shirt or the frat boys wearing “Big Johnson” t-shirts on spring break. But Day has come a long way from strutting about “toughness” in calling out octogenarian Lou Holtz as he did just last season. I think the existential crisis Day encountered after losing to Michigan last season triggered the soul-searching he and his club needed to fully define who they wanted to be moving forward. They handled all four of their opponents in the college football playoff pretty easily en route to their national championship last season (+70 against the spread). His decision not to take back the play-calling on offense after Chip Kelly called the plays last year, but instead let Brian Hartline return to offensive coordinator with the added responsibility of calling the plays, was mature and best for the team — and I think it is appropriate he is taking on the play-calling now given Hartline’s new circumstances (and I think it’s good for Campbell to take accountability for his offense by taking over the play-calling, although I do note it is the second time he has done that which suggests he is hiring the wrong guys). Ohio State began this season with a 14-7 victory against Texas in that opening game showdown in redshirt freshman Julian Sayin’s first collegiate start —  but, whatever, the assignment for Day in that game was to secure the win rather than worry about style points. Sayin has been great while leading the Buckeyes to another 11 straight wins, all decided by at least 18 points. I am a believer in this quarterback who ended the regular season leading the FBS in on-target pass rate. In his 348 dropbacks, he had a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.4% —  and that mark only increases to 2.2% when under pressure. This dude is special — and he has two NFL-ready wide receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Sayin led the nation in QBR and completion percentage in the regular season. The Buckeyes also found their answer at running back with freshman Bo Jackson emerging in the second half of the season. Miami (FL) is only giving up 281.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams who are not giving up more than 310 YPG. What is even more remarkable about this team is that they are probably more dominant on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes have not allowed more than 16 points in any game all season — and they lead the nation by surrendering only 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. I’m not ready to say that first-year defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is the best defensive mind in the world — but he has coordinated defenses that won Super Bowls. Middle linebacker Arvell Reese may be the first defensive player drafted next April in the NFL draft — and free safety Caleb Downs will soon be a back-to-back All-American. Ohio State has not surrendered more than 13 points in five straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last game as well as having covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after not giving up more than 14 points in three or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Miami upset the Aggies despite only gaining 278 yards of offense and getting outgained by -48 net yards. They failed to generate a methodical drive of ten or more plays in that game — and that is not a good sign for an offense that lacks explosiveness. The Hurricanes rank in the bottom 15 in the FBS in Explosive Plays on standard downs. They benefited from playing a limited Texas A&M offense — and they enjoyed a + 2 net turnover margin in that game. But Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after getting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when playing on field turf. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 bowl games. 

FINAL TAKE: Needless to say, fading Miami head coach Mario Cristobal in a high-profile game is, how can I say, comfortable? His game management remains sketch. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 16 of their 19 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games under Day — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their 14 games on the road against teams with a winning record with Day as their head coach. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (258) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (255) and the Utah Utes (256) in the Las Vegas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Nebraska (7-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 40-16 loss at home against Iowa as a 5.5-point underdog on November 28th. Utah (10-2) has won five games in a row after their 31-21 win at Kansas as a 10.5-point favorite on November 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers managed only 300 yards of offense in their loss to the Hawkeyes. Freshman quarterback T.J. Lateef only completed 9 of 24 passes for 69 yards in that game. He will be under center for this bowl game with incumbent starter Dylan Raiola still injured and now in the transfer portal, abandoning head coach Matt Rhule and this Nebraska program. While the Cornhuskers scored 29.3 Points-Per-Game, that number dropped by almost 10 PPG to 19.5 PPG when they played away from home. Their 338.5 total YPG average on the road was -35.3 net Yards-Per-Game below their season average. They did not score more than 17 points in four of their last six games. Nebraska has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a loss to a Big Ten rival. The Cornhuskers have played all 5 of their games Under the Total since Rhule took over the program when the Total was set in the 49.5-56 point range. Utah will be playing their first game with defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley as their head coach after Kyle Whittingham stepped down for him to take over, only for him to take the Michigan job two weeks later. The Utes have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win, including 7 of those 11 games played on the road. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Despite moving to an up-tempo spread offense under first-year offensive coordinator Jason Beck, the Utah defense remained stout by ranking 24th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. They held their opponents to 18.7 PPG — and nine of their 12 opponents failed to score more than 24 points. The Utes have played 16 of their 27 games Under the Total when favored, including 7 of those 11 games played on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: Nebraska has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten — and Utah has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (255) and the Utah Utes (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (432) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (431). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (6-9) has won two games in a row after their 26-19 victory at Arizona as a 2.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (11-4) had won two games in a row before their 38-37 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 2-point underdog on December 18th.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession this season. They are outgaining their opponents by +17.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They are much closer to an 8-7/7-8 team than their 6-9 record suggests. They have a legitimate pass rush after striking gold in the NFL draft by grabbing pass rushers, James Pearce, Jr. and Jalon Walker, in the first round — they have combined for 14 sacks. The Falcons rank second in the league in Adjusted Sack Rate. On the other side of the ball, Kirk Cousins is very motivated to demonstrate to a national audience that he can still play at a high level and deserves to be signed to another contract. He has wide receiver Drake London back from injury as well. The Falcons are 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles is dealing with several injuries on offense — and head coach Sean McVay may choose to be very cautious about using some of these players since they have been eliminated in the NFC West race, so they are destined to be on the road in two weeks as either the fifth or the sixth seed. Wide receiver Davante Adams is doubtful to play due to his hamstring injury. The LA offensive line is also banged up. Right guard Kevin Dotson is out, and left tackle Alaric Jackson is questionable. Right tackle Rob Havenstein is on the injured list, and while he is trending to return soon, McVay may decide not to risk things this week. On defense, defensive end Braden Fiske is questionable with an ankle injury. Cornerback Josh Wallace is out with an ankle injury. As it is, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 15 games when playing with extra rest since McVay became their head coach. And while they have outgained three straight opponents by at least +123 net yards, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 of their games on the road under McVay after outgaining two or more opponents in a row by at least +100 yards.  

FINAL TAKE: A couple of empirical NFL angles support the Falcons tonight. NFL home teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range who have won two of their last three games have covered the point spread in 28 of those last 36 (78%) situations. The Rams are outscoring their opponents by +15.6 Points-Per-Game — but NFL favorites laying 3.5 to 10 points who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG have failed to cover the point spread in 96 of those last 152 (63%) circumstances. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Falcons (432) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (431). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (431) and the Atlanta Falcons (432). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-4) had won two games in a row before their 38-37 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 2-point underdog on December 18th. Atlanta (6-9) has won two games in a row after their 26-19 victory at Arizona as a 2.5-point road favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams need to tighten things up on defense after blowing a 16-point lead against the Seahawks and surrendering 415 yards of offense. Los Angeles still has a very good defense that ranks third in the NFL using the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). They are only giving up 327.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.9 Points-Per-Game. The Rams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss since Sean McVay took over as their head coach — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss to a fellow NFC West rival. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after giving up 30 or more points in their last contest. Los Angeles is dealing with several injuries on offense — and McVay may choose to be very cautious about using some of these players since they have been eliminated in the NFC West race, so they are destined to be on the road in two weeks as either the fifth or the sixth seed. Wide receiver Davante Adams is doubtful to play with his hamstring injury. The LA offensive line is also banged up. Right guard Kevin Dotson is out, and left tackle Alaric Jackson is questionable. Right tackle Rob Havenstein is on the injured list, and while he is trending to return soon, McVay may decide not to risk things this week. A run-heavy approach may be prudent since it will also help to protect quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Rams have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total under McVay. They have also played 34 of their 51 games Under the Total in the McVay era, including 11 of those last 16 contests. Atlanta has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last game. And while the Falcons have covered the point spread in two games in a row — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two games in a row. Atlanta has a legitimate pass rush after striking gold in the NFL draft by grabbing pass rushers James Pearce, Jr. and Jalon Walker in the first round — they have combined for 14 sacks. The Falcons rank second in the league in Adjusted Sack Rate. On the other side of the ball, I remain skeptical about quarterback Kirk Cousins despite his recent success. Three of his last five games have come against teams in the bottom-nine in the league in points allowed. Against Seattle three weeks ago, he completed only 15 of 30 passes for 154 yards in a game where Atlanta scored only nine points. Cousins punishes defenses that blitz him since he can find open receivers and get the ball out quickly. The Rams are in the middle of the pack when it comes to blitz rate — and they can generate pressure without relying on extra pass rushers. The Falcons have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 20 games Under the Total played in prime-time. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total played in prime-time, including 9 of their last 13 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (431) and the Atlanta Falcons (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (430) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (429). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (11-4) has won five games in a row after their 48-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. Chicago (11-4) has won seven of their last eight games after their 22-16 win in overtime at home against Green Bay last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago’s victory against the Packers was agonizing for those of us on Green Bay. Jordan Love got injured in the first half — but the Packers were still competitive with backup Malik Willis under center. Green Bay took a 16-6 lead with just over five minutes left in the fourth quarter — but they squandered that lead, and the game went into overtime when Willis then injured his throwing shoulder, hindering the Packers' opportunity to win that game. The Bears ended up outgaining Green Bay by +16 net yards — and they benefited from a +1 net turnover margin. To paraphrase Jessie from Breaking Bad: “(Chicago) can’t keep getting away with this!” This is a team fueled by an incredible — and likely unsustainable — +21 net turnover margin. That is not only the best mark in the NFL, but it is +6 turnovers over the second-best team in terms of this metric. Their 31 takeaways lead the league. Yes, credit goes to rookie head coach Ben Johnson for helping second-year quarterback Caleb Williams not to force passes and risk interceptions. But they are recovering 64.5% of their fumbles so far this season. C’mon, the Regression Gods are on high alert. Chicago is only outgaining their opponents by +23.0 net Yards-Per-Game, which more often equates to teams with a 9-6 or 8-7 8-6. They have a 7-2 record in games decided by one-scoring possession after last week, including five too close for comfort wins against Las Vegas, Washington, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and the New York Giants, who are already out of the playoff hunt. The Bears are only tied for 14th in Net Expected Points Added per Play. The 49ers rank sixth in that metric, despite all their injuries, which include having to play Mac Jones at quarterback for several games. Chicago is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after playing the Packers in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. And with Williams under center, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games when playing with extended rest — and all six of those games were on the road when they were getting the points. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games with Brock Purdy under center when playing on short rest. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games following a game against an opponent from the AFC. The 49ers are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while putting up at least 26 points in each of those games. At home, they are outgaining their opponents by +59.5 net Yards-Per-Game due to their defense that is only giving up 302.3 total YPG. 

FINAL TAKE: The favorite has won and covered the point spread in 7 of the last 8 games between these two teams. That is not a good sign for this Bears team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 appearances on Sunday Night Football. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (430) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (429). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (429) and the San Francisco 49ers (430). THE SITUATION: Chicago (11-4) has won seven of their last eight games after their 22-16 win in overtime at home against Green Bay last Saturday. San Francisco (11-4) has won five games in a row after their 48-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I am a bit wary of falling into an “over trap” when one of the teams involved (San Francisco) comes off an impressive offensive display. The 49ers’ offense looked unstoppable against the Colts in a game particularly frustrating to me since I was on Indianapolis and the Under. I don’t want to be overreacting to recency bias. The case supported the Over is bolster that in NFL games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, when the road team has a winning percentage in the 60-75% range, comes off a win, and is now facing a winning team, that game finished Over the Total in 26 of those last 34 (77%) circumstances. That empirical angle suggests that in expected high-scoring games, if the road is good and playing with momentum against another quality team, the scoring should go back and forth. I got the game script all wrong last week, as I presumed Indianapolis would try to slow the game down with Jonathan Taylor running the ball. Instead, Philip Rivers defied time by passing for 277 yards. I wanted to see how Rivers would perform today against Jacksonville — and he only threw for 147 yards this afternoon. Perhaps Rivers' turning back time had more to do with the banged-up 49ers defense that is missing several key players, including Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. I definitely need to raise the threshold of evidence of when I endorse Unders in Niners’ games under head coach Kyle Shanahan — especially against good teams. San Francisco has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in December. With team trends like that demonstrating the personality of the Niners under Shanahan, it is tough for me to get off the Over in this spot. Chicago’s improving rushing attack has helped their defense and contributed to their playing two straight Unders. After holding Cleveland scoreless in the first half two weeks ago, they went into halftime last week trailing by a 6-0 score to the Packers. But those strong defensive efforts trigger an empirical angle supporting the Over that has been 81% effective since 2016. The 49ers are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while putting up at least 26 points in each of those games — and in the last 31 games involving one team that has scored at least 25 points three straight games facing a team that has not allowed more than seven points in the first half in their last two games, 25 of those contests finished Over the Total. The Chicago defense is surrendering 370.8 total Yards-Per-Game on the road, which is resulting in 29.0 PPG. In their 8 games on the road this season under head coach Ben Johnson, they have played 5 of those games Over the Total. And while the 49ers are allowing their opponents to generate 5.7 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams who give up 5.65 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: In the 49ers last 18 games at home when favored by -3 to -7 points, they have played 16 of those games Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (429) and the San Francisco 49ers (430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (421) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (422). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (7-8) has lost six of their last seven games after their 23-20 upset loss at Carolina as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (6-9) has lost two games in a row after their 45-21 loss against Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay was one of my sleeper teams to make a run to the Super Bowl this season, but injuries decimated their roster midway through the season. They have failed to meet point spread expectations in seven straight games — but at least I got off the bandwagon before that run. After suffering three straight upset losses against fellow NFC South rivals, I think this is a good “get right” game for them. They still control their own destiny — winning this game and then beating Carolina for the NFC South title places them as the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs and hosting a postseason game in two weeks. That the Buccaneers are still favored in this game is telling — NFL favorites coming off three straight losses to divisional rivals have covered the point spread in 8 straight games with those eight teams covering the spread by a comfortable +15.8 PPG. Tampa Bay is slowly getting healthier — their talented wide receiver room is back to full strength, and running back Bucky Irving is healthy again. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games after a straight-up loss. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by six points or less, including six of those eight games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games, including six of their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Miami surrendered 407 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. Rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers was better than I expected him to be, as he completed 20 of 30 passes for 260 yards. But he did throw two interceptions without a touchdown pass. In hindsight, it makes sense why the team selected him in the seventh round of the NFL draft last April, since his good accuracy with intermediate passes is similar to Tua Tagovailoa’s strength. In theory, he could operate in the same system. But he is not as talented as Tagovailoa — and he has flaws that, when other NFL observers fail to recognize, only reaffirm my discovery that these folks do not watch much college football. As was made painfully evident in Texas’s college football playoff run last year, Ewers does not have the strongest of arms — and he is not accurate in a more vertical passing game. He also was not able to execute the timing routes that head coach Steve Sarkisian likes to install. Too often, he resorts to playground antics in the pocket — and I still don’t think McDaniel has had enough time to coach this out of him. He is going to face a ton of blitzes from Buccaneers’ head coach Todd Bowles — and the Tampa Bay defense is better than Cincinnati’s defensive unit (even when banged up). Miami under McDaniel has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games when Tagovailoa is not their starting quarterback. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their 41 games when listed in the +/- 4-point range. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their 22 games under McDaniel when getting single digits as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: A trip to Miami may be just what the doctor ordered for the Buccaneers since they have beaten them in seven straight occasions while covering the point spread in 6 of those contests. 25* NFL Non-Conference Blowout of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (421) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (422). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (418) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (417). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-12) has lost four games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (9-6) has won three games in a row after their 29-24 upset win at Detroit on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: The weather should play in the hands of the underdogs this afternoon. While the temperature will be in the 60s, rain is expected with 20 miles per hour winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour. Cleveland should be motivated to screw their rival in this one. The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a victory — but a loss would then force an all-or-nothing showdown with Baltimore next week. Despite losing to Buffalo at home last week, they outgained them by +35 net yards. The Browns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home after losing two or more games in a row. At home, they are outgaining their opponents by +22.3 net Yards-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to just 249.1 total YPG, which is resulting in just 19.4 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against fellow AFC North rivals. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. The Steelers are playing this game shorthanded. Wide receiver D.J. Metcalf is suspended after his altercation with a fan last week. Wide receiver Calvin Austin III is out with an injury. That leaves the wide receivers available to quarterback Aaron Rodgers pretty light — and passing downfield will already be a challenge given the strong winds. All this will allow the Browns' defense to stack the box to defend against the horizontal offensive approach this offense will take with two and three tight ends on the field. Pittsburgh’s offensive line and defense are also missing starters. With the Total set in the 34.5 point range, it is the lowest over/under number in a game Rodgers has ever played in. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games with the Total set no higher than 35. 

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers won the first meeting between these two teams back on October 12th by a 23-9 score as a 6.5-point favorite at home. But the Browns have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when avenging a loss. The home team has covered the point spread in 13 of the last 16 meetings between these AFC North rivals. 25* AFC North Game of the Month is with the Cleveland Browns (418) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (417). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (409) and the Green Bay Packers (410). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 28-24 upset loss at home against New England as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-5-1) has lost two games in a row after their 22-16 loss at Chicago as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Two backup quarterbacks, two solid defenses, run scripts for both teams, and cold weather with temperatures expected in the 30s with the wind around 10 miles per hour — after overthinking this situation for a while, I decided not to overthink it. No one loves betting the Under when the Total is in the 30s — but that is the point since the books know that. Frankly, it would not be a surprise if one of these teams fails to score double-digits — and that would all but ensure our Under. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to a fellow NFC North rival — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home, where their defense is holding their guests to just 251.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is, resulting in only 14.6 Points-Per-Game. The only team to score more than 18 points against them at home was the Bears, who scored 21 points against them. The Packers have played 10 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. The Green Bay defense is the number one ranked tackling unit according to the Pro Football Focus grading system. Even without Micah Parsons last week, they pressured Caleb Williams on 47% of his dropbacks last week. The top assignment this week is slowing down the Ravens’ Derrick Henry. The Packers’ run defense is the second best in the NFL in limiting explosive plays in their opponent’s rushing attack — and the 199 yards they have surrendered on rushing gains of 15 or more yards is the fewest in the league. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay is scoring touchdowns on just 58% of their trips inside the Red Zone — and they have scored only one touchdown in their nine Red Zone trips in their last two games. Running back Josh Jacobs only gained 36 yards on 12 carries last week, as he does not look to be 100% as he plays through a knee injury. It will be Malik Willis under center tonight since Jordan Love did not clear the concussion protocol. He is playing through a shoulder injury that he suffered late in last week’s game. He completed 9 of 11 passes for 121 yards — but remember that the Bears were preparing for a rematch against Love. Now the Ravens have spent the week preparing for Willis, and the set of plays head coach Matt LaFleur has arranged for him in the past. In his two starts last season, LaFleur dialed up pass plays only 33% of the time, making the offense predictable. Tyler Huntley gets the start for the Ravens tonight with Lamar Jackson unable to play because of a back injury. In his previous start this season, offensive coordinator Todd Monken called passing plays -9.0% below league expectation. He only had one touchdown pass in his 36 attempts this season. Baltimore’s defense has played much better since the bye week, when they repositioned safety Kyle Hamilton away from a free safety role and closer to the line of scrimmage. On the road, the Ravens are only giving up 19.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 13 of their 22 games in Week 17 and beyond Under the Total under head coach John Harbaugh. They have also played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have played 11 of their 16 games played on a Saturday Under the Total in the Harbaugh era — and the Packers have played 5 of their 6 games played on a Saturday Under the Total since LaFleur has been their head coach. 10* NFL Baltimore-Green Bay O/U Peacock Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (409) and the Green Bay Packers (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (410) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (409). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-5-1) has lost two games in a row after their 22-16 loss at Chicago as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (7-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 28-24 upset loss at home against New England as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: With both teams relying on backup quarterbacks, the home team should have the edge tonight. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games at home in December under head coach Matt LaFleur. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing the Bears in their previous game. The Packers blew a 10-point lead last week — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their 14 games after blowing a lead of six or more points in a straight-up loss under LaFleur.  They return home where they have covered the point spread 9 of their last 12 home games when favored by seven points or less. Their defense is holding their guests to just 251.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is, resulting in only 14.6 Points-Per-Game. The only team to score more than 18 points against them at home was the Bears, who scored 21 points against them. The Green Bay defense is the number one-ranked tackling unit according to the Pro Football Focus grading system. Even without Micah Parsons last week, they pressured Caleb Williams on 47% of his dropbacks last week. The top assignment this week is slowing down the Ravens’ Derrick Henry. The Packers’ run defense is the second best in the NFL in limiting explosive plays in their opponent’s rushing attack — and the 199 yards they have surrendered on rushing gains of 15 or more yards is the fewest in the league. It will be Malik Willis under center tonight since Jordan Love did not clear the concussion protocol. He completed 9 of 11 passes for 121 yards and added another 44 rushing yards on ten carries. Tyler Huntley gets the start for the Ravens tonight with Lamar Jackson unable to play because of a back injury. He only has one touchdown pass in his 36 attempts this season. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 expected low-scoring games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. In the 6 games in the last three seasons when they were an underdog on the road, they have failed to cover the point spread 4 times. Furthermore, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on grass this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road when playing on grass.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (410) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (409). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (233) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (234) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (6-6) had won two games in a row before their 23-13 loss against Western Michigan as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mid-American Conference championship game on December 6th. Fresno State (8-4) has won three of their last four games after their 41-14 win at San Jose State as a 3-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) typically engages in a challenging non-conference campaign to prepare for the rigors of Mid-American Conference play under head coach Chuck Martin. The RedHawks lost their opening three games of the season with losses at Wisconsin and Rutgers before returning home and playing UNLV tough in a three-point loss. Miami (OH) then won six of their eight games in conference play and won a three-way tie-breaker to earn the right to play for another MAC title. The Redhawks lost in the MAC championship game last season by 35 points against Ohio and then participated in the Arizona Bowl and pulled off a dominant 43-17 victory against another Mountain West Conference team, Colorado State. Martin will have his team ready to play as he takes bowl games very seriously as an opportunity for additional practice time and early preparation for next season. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 7 straight bowl games, with Martin their head coach in the last six of those games. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss on the road under Martin, including seven of those last contests. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a fellow MAC rival. Miami (OH) does have several players opt-out of this game after entering the transfer portal — including their leading wide receiver, Cam Perry, and their best defensive player, defensive end Adam Trick. But Martin sees the bowl game as the opportunity to develop the talent that has to step up now. After senior quarterback DeQaun Finn abruptly left the program in late November to prepare for the NFL draft, Martin has used both senior Henry Hesson and freshman Thomas Gotkowski under center. Gotkowski started in the MAC championship game but got benched for Hesson. That quarterback competition surely continued into the bowl practices. The strength of Martin’s team is on the other side of the ball, where they are holding their opponents to just 329.8 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 22.0 Points-Per-Game. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games under Martin in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Fresno State will not have free safety Jayden Davis, who entered the transfer portal — but the interesting development is at quarterback. First-year head coach Matt Entz has listed freshman Carson Conklin as his starting quarterback, bumping senior E.J. Warner, the former transfer from Temple and Rice. While Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner’s son has shown flashes in his collegiate career, his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 12:11 this season is not very impressive. In four seasons, Warner has thrown 48 interceptions. It is not surprising that Entz would use this bowl game to give Conklin a tryout for the job next season. But the former Sacramento State transfer completed only 49% of his 96 pass attempts in the regular season with one touchdown pass and two interceptions. He is not mobile — and he averaged only 3.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. Despite Warner being too loose with the football, he did complete 69.4% of his passes and averaged 7.1 YPA. As it is, the Bulldogs ranked just 117th in Expected Points Added per Rush Attempt and 121st in EPA per Dropback in the passing game. They also ranked 108th in average third down yardage needed — and that could spell trouble against a Miami (OH) defense that ranked in Opponent EPA on Early Downs. The strength of this Fresno State team has been their defense, which held their opponents to 20.1 PPG — but they show cracks on third down as they rank 126th in Opponent Success Rate on third downs. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win against a fellow MWC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. And while they generated 23 takeaways, including five against the Spartans and enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after posting a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with two or more weeks between games. Their ability to force turnovers helped mask the fact that they got outgained by -11.5 net YPG when playing on the road. The RedHawks only turned the ball over 13 times this season. 

FINAL TAKE: The Mid-American Conference has fared well so far in the bowl season. Western Michigan crushed the Sun Belt Conference champion, Kennesaw State, by 35 points. Ohio upset UNLV. Toledo only lost to Louisville by five points as a double-digit dog. The Mountain West Conference has struggled. Besides the Rebels' upset loss, Boise State lost by 28 points to Washington, and Utah State lost by 13 points to Washington State. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (233) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (234). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Florida International Golden Panthers (223) and the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: FIU (7-5) has won four games in a row after their 56-16 win at Sam Houston as an 11-point favorite on November 29th. UTSA (6-6) had won two games in a row before their 27-27 upset loss at home to Army as a 9-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL:The Golden Panthers generated 594 yards of offense against the Bearkats to continue a scoring surge in the back half of the season. In their last four games, FIU has scored 40.8 Points-Per-Game while reaching at least 27 points in all four contests. Head coach Willie Simmons dealt with injuries at the quarterback position with both Keyone Jenkins and Joe Pesansky banged up. Simmons indicated that if this bowl game was played last week, he may have to use third-stringer Clayton Dees — but Simmons has said both Jenkins and Pesansky are improved now and he is being coy which one or if both will play. This is the Golden Panthers first bowl game since 2019, so they should be very motivated for this game in Simmons first season with the program. On the other side of the ball, four defensive backs are not playing in this game after entering the transfer portal. As it is, FIU allowed their opponents to gain 406.4 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 27.8 PPG. They also allowed their opponents to gain 47% of the available yards from their starting field position — so the Roadrunners are going to get their share of yards (and points). The Golden Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win against a fellow Conference USA rival. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games  Over the Total after a victory by 17 or more points. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams outside Conference USA. UTSA has played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss to a fellow American Athletic Conference rival. They have also played 4 straight Overs after an upset loss. Head coach Jeff Traylor indicated that his team will be a “shell of themselves” for this game, given transfers, opt-outs, and injuries — but most of the attrition is on the defensive side of the ball. That is not good news for a unit that gave up 384.2 total YPG, which resulted in 29.6 PPG — and they surrendered 42 or more points four times. But quarterback Owen McCown will play in this game along with almost all his skill position players (outside injured third-string tight end, Dan Dishman). UTSA generates 413.8 total YPG, which results in 33.6 PPG — and they have scored 48 or more points four times. The Roadrunners sport a balanced offense that ranks 32nd in Expected Points Allowed per Rush Attempt and 44th in EPA per dropback in the passing game. They also stay on schedule with an EPA on early downs, ranking 18th in the nation. UTSA has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. 

FINAL TAKE: The Roadrunners have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Golden Panthers have played 13 of their last 22 games Over the Total as an underdog. 10* CFB FIU-UTSA O/U ESPN Special with Over the Total in the game between the Florida International Golden Panthers (223) and the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (405) and the Kansas City Chiefs (406). THE SITUATION: Denver (12-3) had won 11 games in a row before their 34-20 upset loss against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (6-9) has lost four games in a row after their 26-9 upset loss at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos are mad after seeing their winning streak snapped despite holding the Jaguars to just 346 yards of offense. The Denver defense is outstanding. This unit ranks 10th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. Good luck running the ball — Denver ranks fifth in Opponent EPA per Rush Attempt Allowed. They are holding their opponents to 291.6 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 19.7 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total in prime-time. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC West opponents, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Kansas City has played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoff race and dealing with a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball. The margins are thinner on offense — and the losses on that side are more significant. Patrick Mahomes’ season is over. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew is now out. Wide receivers Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton were just put on the injured list yesterday. And the fundamental problem regarding the state of their offensive line remains. Josh Simmons, Jawaan Taylor, and Wanya Morris are out. Jaylon Moore is questionable. Their quarterback will be Chris Oladokun, a four-year veteran originally drafted in the seventh round from South Dakota State. I give little weight to his 11 of 16 for 111 passing yards stat line last week in garbage time. When playing future bartenders in mop-up time in the preseason this year, he completed only 11 of 23 passes for 120 yards. So that leaves Oladokun now behind that banged-up offensive line, having to navigate cornerback Patrick Surtain II, taking away his number one target. Kansas City gained only 133 yards last week … against the Titans.

FINAL TAKE: I am reminded of last year’s Week 18 meeting between these teams when the Broncos needed the win to make the playoffs, and Kansas City was resting its starters. The Chiefs were shutout in that game and gained less than 100 yards of offense despite having a better quarterback, Carson Wentz, under center. Kansas City has played 5 straight Unders at home with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 8 straight Unders at home against fellow AFC West rivals. 10* NFL Thursday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (405) and the Kansas City Chiefs (406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (405) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (406). THE SITUATION: Denver (12-3) had won 11 games in a row before their 34-20 upset loss against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (6-9) has lost four games in a row after their 26-9 upset loss at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: No, this Report is not my attempt to communicate I have been kidnapped — I am really investing heavily in Denver tonight. I appreciate any concern, as I used to be adamant about not laying big numbers in the NFL like this. But then I realized that these double-digit favorites in the NFL were close to 50-50% propositions (and it turns out there were plenty of bettors like me who were reticent to ever lay wood like this). But after Buffalo and New England were heavy favorites for Thursday night games early in the season, I discovered that favorites laying 10.5 or more points when playing with just four days of rest are an incredible 27-9 ATS run (updated) since 1983. With an empirical trend like that, even I am willing to reconsider. And all the other pieces for this play quickly fall into place. The Broncos are mad after seeing their winning streak snapped — at home, of all places. Head coach Sean Payton is a Bill Parcells disciple — and this is his last likely opportunity before the playoffs to let his team know that their sh*t does, in fact, stink and to get them to refocus on some areas of concern he has identified. With Bo Nix under center, Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games after suffering a loss in their last contest. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 17 of their 27 games with Nix at quarterback when the Total is set at 44.5 or lower. I have argued previously that Nix is at his best when he can operate as a flat-track bully. Admittedly, he has been clutch in the fourth quarter in crunch time. It is when he is in obvious passing downs when his efficiency has waned. When Payton can dial up passing plays for him in situations when the opposing defense has to defend against the run, Nix has thrived. This game should be filled with those opportunities — and Payton is not one to put his foot on the brakes. Nix also performs better against man coverage — and that is the preferred pass coverage of Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Kansas City is playing just their second game in head coach Andy Reid’s 13-year tenure when they were eliminated from the postseason. I double-checked. In his second season in the 2014-15 campaign, a loss at Pittsburgh in Week 17 dropped their record to 8-8, which put them officially out of the playoff race. The Chiefs did finish the season with a 19-7 win against the then San Diego Chargers as a 3-point favorite. A couple of items about that situation. First, it was Reid’s second year with Kansas City — a few years before they would draft Patrick Mahomes — and he was still building his winning culture. Ensuring a second-straight winning record with a victory at Arrowhead meant something. Second, the win ruined the Chargers’ playoff aspirations. Eleven years later, the situation is much different. The Chiefs have since won three Super Bowls. They cannot play spoiler to the Broncos' postseason. A winning record is mathematically impossible (and inching their way up the draft board is not the worst thing in the world). To compound matters, it’s the holiday week — and they are playing with just four days between games. I don’t think Reid and company tanked their preparation — but I would be surprised if they burned the midnight oil for this. Even if they had the overwhelming desire to screw Denver’s drive to win home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs, they simply don’t have the players to pull it off. I am not even going to get deep into their injured list. Mahomes is out. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew is out. Wide receivers Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton and cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson were just put on the injured list yesterday. There is a long line of players listed as questionable — and I’m not sure why Reid risks sending many of those guys out there. And the fundamental problem regarding the state of their offensive line remains. Josh Simmons, Jawaan Taylor, and Wanya Morris are out. Jaylon Moore is questionable. Their quarterback will be Chris Oladokun, a four-year veteran originally drafted in the seventh round from South Dakota State. I give little weight to his 11 of 16 for 111 passing yards stat line last week in garbage time. When playing future bartenders in mop-up time in the preseason this year, he completed only 11 of 23 passes for 120 yards. Now he faces this stout Broncos defense that ranks 10th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. Good luck running the ball — Denver ranks fifth in Opponent EPA per Rush Attempt Allowed. So that leaves Oladokun behind that banged-up offensive line, having to navigate cornerback Patrick Surtain II, taking away his number one target. Kansas City gained only 133 yards last week … against the Titans. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in all 6 games in Reid’s tenure when they lost double-digits in their previous game. They are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow AFC West rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Denver from which their is little love lost. 

FINAL TAKE: I am reminded of last year’s Week 18 meeting between these teams when the Broncos needed the win to make the playoffs, and Kansas City was resting its starters. Denver won by a 38-0 score — and, frankly, that Chiefs team would beat the players Reid has at his disposal tonight. The books have responded by making both Kansas City and Reid the biggest home underdog in franchise and professional history, respectively — and I think they would go higher, if they had to, to draw money on both sides. In the 10 games in Reid’s tenure as a home dog, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 times. The Broncos have covered the point spread in both games as a double-digit favorite with Payton. Even if KC had the will, I don’t see how they have the way. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (405) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (218) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the California Golden Bears (217) in the Hawai’i Bowl. THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (8-4) has won five of their last seven games after their 27-7 victory against Wyoming as an 8.5-point favorite on November 29th. California (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 38-35 upset win against SMU as a 13.5-point underdog on November 29th. This game is a true home game for the Rainbow Warriors since their Clarence T.C. Ching Complex is the traditional host site for this holiday bowl game. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i should be very motivated to play hard tonight in their first appearance in their local bowl game since 2019, when they beat BYU by a 38-34 score. Wide receiver Jackson Harris is in the transfer portal after catching 12 touchdown passes — but slot receiver Pofele Ashlock remains the go-to target for freshman quarterback Micah Alejado. Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele gets more of the national attention as a potential future NFL draft pick — but this is an opportunity for Alejado to draw some national attention with this game owning a monopoly regarding the major sports today. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win against a fellow Mountain West Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 11 straight games at home after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Hawai’i has developed into a very tough out when playing at home under head coach Timmy Chang, a former quarterback for this team. They have won and covered the point spread in six of their seven home games this season. They are outgaining their opponents by +103.9 net Yards-Per-Game at home, which is resulting in them outscoring their guests by +15.4 Points-Per-Game. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home against teams with a winning record. Chang has brought back the run-and-shoot passing attack that he thrived on under former head coach June Jones, giving this program a unique identity. But don’t sleep on this Hawai’i defense that is holding their opponents to just 288.0 total YPG, which is resulting in 15.0 PPG when playing at home. California fired head coach Justin Wilcox after they lost their rivalry game to Stanford. Quarterbacks coach Nick Rolovich was named the interim head coach — he was a former head coach at both Hawai’i and Washington State — and he guided the team to the upset victory against the Mustangs to end their regular season. But Rolovich’s teams in his head coaching career have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games after an upset victory as a double-digit underdog. His teams have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 9 games on the road with the Toal set in the 49.5-56 point range. Since then, Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi has been named the next Cal head coach. Rolovich will stay on as the quarterbacks coach. The motivation level for this team on their holiday trip to Hawai’i is in question — and there is a long line of names, even this afternoon, that have the questionable designation on the injured list. The Golden Bears upset SMU despite getting outgained by 25 net yards and surrendering 447 yards in that game. Cal has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win against a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by six points or less. The Golden Bears offense can get itself into trouble since they rank 114th in Expected Points Added per Play on 1st and 2nd downs and then 86th in Success Rate on 3rd and 4th downs. They were outscored by -1.7 PPG and outgained by -11.1 net YPG this season — and on the road, they got outscored by -6.2 PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i should have success moving the football tonight. Cal is a bottom-20 tackling unit — and losing Wilcox last month does not help their defense because he is a well-respected defensive mind. The Rainbow Warrior ranks sixth in forcing missed tackles — and they rank 35th in the nation in Success Rate on 3rd and 4th downs. And while the Golden Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.6% of their passes — and Hawai’i has won seven of their last 11 games against pass defenses that allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 58% or more of their passes. The Rainbow Warriors should be able to get their run-and-shoot passing attack going. 10* CFB California-Hawai’i ESPN Special with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (218) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the California Golden Bears (217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (131) and the Indianapolis Colts (132). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (10-4) has won four games in a row after their 37-24 win against Tennessee as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. Indianapolis (8-6) has lost four games in a row after their 18-16 loss at Seattle as a 13-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Philip Rivers put his team in a position to win that game with a late drive that resulted in a field goal and a 15-14 lead. Seattle simply answers with a game-winning field goal. Granted, Rivers’ numbers were not going to help anyone win their fantasy football playoff game — and it seems that the only way that the Colts can win tonight is in a low-scoring game. But the Indianapolis defense should be able to slow down the 49ers offense — as they did against the Seahawks last week. The Colts rank 11th in Defensive DVOA. They stymied Seattle on 11 of their 13 third down attempts and both of their trips inside the Red Zone last week. They also rank fourth in the league in Opponent EPA Allowed versus 21 (two running back, one tight end) personnel — and San Francisco leads the NFL by using 21 personnel in 22.6% of their snaps from their offensive snaps. At home, Indianapolis holds their guests to just 322.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.2 PPG, the fifth-lowest home mark in the NFL. And now this defense gets back one of the best defensive tackles in the league, DeForest Buckner, back from injury. The Colts have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. San Francisco has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home, including all three of those games played on the road. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. The 49ers are really banged up on both sides of the ball. The offense is without wide receiver Ricky Pearsall and left guard Ben Bartch. The defense is still playing well despite the attrition. They held the Titans to just 3-6 yards — and they are only giving up 263.0 total YPG in their last four games, which has resulted in just 13.7 PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers are scoring 24.6 PPG — and the Colts have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (131) and the Indianapolis Colts (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (132) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (131). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (8-6) has lost four games in a row after their 18-16 loss at Seattle as a 13-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (10-4) has won four games in a row after their 37-24 win against Tennessee as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Any doubts that Indianapolis can remain competitive despite relying on a 44-year-old quarterback signed off the street on December 10th were removed in their narrow loss against the Seahawks. Philip Rivers put his team in a position to win that game with a late drive that resulted in a field goal and a 15-14 lead. Seattle simply answers with a game-winning field goal. Granted, Rivers’ numbers were not going to help anyone win their fantasy football playoff game — but he was going against perhaps the best defense in the league. The Seahawks’s defense ranks number one in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Seattle also ranks second in Pass Defense DVOA — and their pressure rate on 35.1% of opponent dropbacks is the second-best in the NFL. Now they host a 49ers defense that ranks just 25th in Defensive DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA. Their pressure rate of 22.1% is second-to-last in the NFL. Since we are on the subject, the Niners also rank 25th in Run Defense DVOA, 29th in Opponent Adjusted Line Yards, and 31st in Opponent Expected Points Added per Outside Rush Attempt. Indianapolis can pull the upset in this game by feeding the rock to Jonathan Taylor behind their excellent offensive line, getting smart play from their future Hall of Fame quarterback, and leaning on their good defense. That offensive line ranks fifth in the league in run block win-rate. The Colts rank 11th in Defensive DVOA. They stymied the Seahawks on 11 of their 13 third down attempts and both of their trips inside the Red Zone last week. They also rank fourth in the league in Opponent EPA Allowed versus 21 (two running back, one tight end) personnel — and San Francisco leads the NFL by using 21 personnel in 22.6% of their snaps from their offensive snaps. At home, Indianapolis holds their guests to just 322.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.2 PPG, the fifth-lowest home mark in the NFL. And now this defense gets back one of the best defensive tackles in the league, DeForest Buckner, back from injury. With backup quarterbacks, the Colts have covered the point spread in 10 of their 18 games since Shane Steichen took over as their head coach. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, including 8 of those 12 games played at home. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring 30 or more points. The 49ers are really banged up. On defense, they are without defensive end Nick Bosa, defensive end Mykel Williams (their first round draft pick), and middle linebacker Fred Warner. Defensive tackle Jordan Elliott, defensive end Sam Okuayinou, and backup middle linebacker Tatum Bethune are all doubtful. The offense is without wide receiver Ricky Pearsall and left guard Ben Bartch. On the road, the Niners are getting outgained by -27.8 net YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road in the second half of the season. And while Indianapolis is outscoring their opponents by +6.4 PPG, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their 47 games under head coach Kyle Shanahan when laying 5.5 or more points — and the Colts have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month is with the Indianapolis Colts (132) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (113) and the Baltimore Ravens (114). THE SITUATION: New England (11-3) saw their 10-game winning streak end in a 35-31 loss at home against Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog. Baltimore (7-7) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 24-0 shutout win against Cincinnati as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Lots of due diligence were needed for this game. First, let’s talk about the weather. The temperature will be in the mid-30s, and the wind will be at 15 miles per hour at 8:00 PM ET before dropping as the game goes on. That temperature is good football weather. I don’t love the wind, but it is all relative to the number (it is ill-advised to blindly bet Unders if the wind is over 10 MPH). I check where the public and “sharp” money is going — and that action triggers one of my Over angles. Finally, both defenses are dealing with impactful injuries — advantage offense, to be discussed below. The Ravens are finally committing to running the ball and leaning on Derrick Henry (perhaps they were keeping him fresh for the second half of the season?). He comes into this game fresh after only rushing the ball 11 times last week for 100 yards. In the last two weeks, Baltimore’s ground attack has averaged 32 attempts per game, 203 rushing Yards-Per-Game, and a robust 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Since Week Eight, they are second in the NFL in Rushing Success Rate, after ranking only 22nd in that metric prior. The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Baltimore has also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season. Safety Kyle Hamilton is listed as questionable for this game — but the latest news this afternoon indicates he is trending towards taking the field tonight. But if he gets knocked out of the game, the Ravens lose their best player on defense. Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is doubtful with a foot injury. The New England defense is even more banged up. Defensive end Milton Williams is on the injured list with an ankle injury. Linebackers Robert Spillane and Harold Landry, defensive end Christian Barmore, and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Marcus Jones are all listed as questionable — and while all have practiced in some capacity this week and will probably take the field, they are less than 100% and at risk of not finishing the game. This defense has regressed since losing Williams up front. Since Week Eight, the Patriots rank 30th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. As it is, the pass defense ranks 26th in DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (not at FTN). New England is also last in the league in Red Zone Touchdown Rate allowed. The Patriots have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread setback. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total as an underdog. And in their last 11 games in December, they have played 9 of these games Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their last 5 games against each other Over the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (113) and the Baltimore Ravens (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (114) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (113). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-7) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 24-0 shutout win against Cincinnati as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. New England (11-3) saw their 10-game winning streak end in a 35-31 loss at home against Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Do not count out this Baltimore team to make a deep postseason run. Quarterback Lamar Jackson looked his best under center last week since he got injured — and he has declared that he is finally feeling injury-free. The Ravens are finally committing to running the ball and leaning on Derrick Henry (perhaps they were keeping him fresh for the second half of the season?). He comes into this game fresh after only rushing the ball 11 times last week for 100 yards. In the last two weeks, Baltimore’s ground attack has averaged 32 attempts per game, 203 rushing Yards-Per-Game, and a robust 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Since Week Eight, they are second in the NFL in Rushing Success Rate, after ranking only 22nd in that metric prior. They have rushed for at least 189 yards in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. And just like last season, the Ravens’ defense made significant improvements after their bye week when they tinkered with their scheme. This season, they moved safety away from the free safety spot he shifted to last season back to playing close to the line of scrimmage, where he can be used in a variety of roles. In the first five weeks of the season, Baltimore ranked 30th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play, 29th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed, and 30th in Opponent EPA per Rush Attempt Allowed. Since then, their defense ranks fifth in Opponent EPA per Play Allowed, fifth in Opponent Success Rate Allowed, and first in Opponent Rush EPA per Rush Attempt Allowed. Hamilton is listed as questionable for this game — but the latest news this afternoon indicates he is trending towards taking the field tonight. The Ravens covered the point spread last week for the first time in their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. With Jackson under center, Baltimore has an 16-0 straight-up record in Weeks 15-18  in his career — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their 26 games in December with Jackson. New England has enjoyed the easiest schedule to date — and they have benefited from playing seven quarterbacks who were either rookies or have since been benched. They also have been fortunate with fumbles — they have lost only 7 of their 17 fumbles while recovering 67% of their opponent’s fumbles. This team is banged up. Left tackle Will Campbell and defensive end Milton Williams are on the injured list. Linebackers Robert Spillane and Harold Landry, defensive end Christian Barmore, and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Marcus Jones are all listed as questionable — and while all have practiced in some capacity this week and will probably take the field, they are less than 100% and at risk of not finishing the game. This defense has regressed since losing Williams up front. Since Week Eight, the Patriots rank 30th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. As it is, the pass defense ranks 26th in DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (not at FTN). New England is also last in the league in Red Zone Touchdown Rate allowed. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And in their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have failed to cover the point spread 10 times. BTW, quarterback Drake Maye has only won one game in five starts in December in his career.   

FINAL TAKE: In the head coach John Harbaugh era, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 20 of their 27 games against teams winning 67% or more of their games. And while the Patriots are scoring 27.3 Points-Per-Game, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 games under Harbaugh against teams that score 27 or more PPG. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (114) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (129) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (130). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-10) has lost two games in a row after their 24-0 loss at home against Baltimore as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (6-8) had won four games in a row before their 28-15 loss at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday night. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Before last week’s game, quarterback Joe Burrow conceded that he was “not having fun” playing right now. Whether he was simply whining or perhaps calling out the stinginess of ownership for not investing in better players on defense, the results on the field against the Ravens were dismal. It was the first time that Burrow got shut out since he entered the league — and Cincinnati had not been shut out in a game since 2017. It was embarrassing — and I expect Burrow to lead the charge in this game out of professional pride. Head coach Zac Taylor usually gets his team to play well after setbacks. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games after a loss at home to a fellow AFC North rival in his tenure. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games on the road after losing two or more games in a row under Taylor. Additionally, Cincinnati is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after playing Baltimore or Pittsburgh in their last contest. And while last week’s game finished Under the Total, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 21 of their 28 road games in the Taylor regime after playing an Under. Burrow will not have Tee Higgins for this game as he remains in the concussion protocol — but he still has Ja’Marr Chase. Besides, Cincinnati has found success running the ball more midway through the season. The Dolphins surrendered 132.1 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and the Bengals have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road against teams that give up 130 or more rushing YPG. Cincinnati does not have a good defense — but running the ball more 4.9 times per game in their last four games has helped them hold their opponents to -36.0 YPG versus their season average during that span. With Burrow under center, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 22 of their 31 games against non-divisional AFC rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. Miami managed only a field goal in the first half last week in their 13-point loss against the Steelers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 of their games at home under head coach Mike McDaniel when they fail to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. That was probably the last time Tua Tagovailoa will take the field in a Miami uniform — he was demoted to third string afterwards because he will likely be waived after the season, like Denver moved on from Russell Wilson a few years ago. The organization cannot risk Tagovailoa getting hurt on the field since that would incur an even bigger salary cap hit. The Dolphins turn to rookie Quinn Ewers under center, who they drafted in the seventh round last April. In hindsight, it makes sense why the team selected him since his good accuracy with intermediate is similar to Tagovailoa’s strength. In theory, he could operate in the same system. But he is not as talented as Tagovailoa — and he has flaws that, when other NFL observers fail to recognize, only reaffirm my discovery that these folks do not watch much college football. As was made painfully evident in Texas’ college football playoff run last year, Ewers does not have the strongest of arms — and he is not accurate in a more vertical passing game. He also was not able to execute the timing routes that head coach Steve Sarkisian likes to install. Too often, he resorts to playground antics in the pocket — and McDaniel has not had enough time to coach this out of him. I am not expecting much — especially on a short week. As it is, Miami has just a 3-10 record on short rest with McDaniel as their head coach, with an average losing margin of -8.2 Points-Per-Game — and they have lost seven of those games in a row. In those eight games when the Dolphins were an underdog, they lost seven of those games — and the average margin in those eight contests was -14.3 PPG. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their 40 games at home under McDaniel when listed in the +/- 4-point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point in 12 of their last 18 games with the Total set at 47 or higher. To compound matters, cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick is out with a calf injury. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 19 road games when favored in the -3 to -7 point range. 25* National Football League Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (129) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (103) and the Chicago Bears (104). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-4-1) had won four games in a row before their 34-26 upset loss at Denver as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (10-4) has won six of their last seven games after their 31-3 win against Cleveland as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears’ opportunistic defense did it again last week by generating a +3 net turnover margin. They lead the NFL with 30 takeaways this season. Chicago has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin, including five of those seven games played at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. Quarterback Caleb Williams is without two key wide receivers, Rome Odunze and rookie Luther Burden III, tonight. Additionally, running back D’Andre Swift is questionable with a groin — and while rookie Kyle Monangi has emerged, his backup would be someone off the practice squad if Swift can’t go, since Roschon Johnson is on the injured list. The Packers are not at 100% either. Of course, defensive end Micah Parsons is out for the season. But, remember, nine starters are back from last year’s defense that tanked sixth and fifth in the NFL by allowing 19.9 Points-Per-Game and 314.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Wide receiver Christian Watson and running back Josh Jacobs are also questionable. Green Bay has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss, including six of those nine games played at home. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. And in their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 60-75% of their games. 10* NFL Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (103) and the Chicago Bears (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (103) plus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (104). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-4-1) had won four games in a row before their 34-26 upset loss at Denver as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (10-4) has won six of their last seven games after their 31-3 win against Cleveland as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Chicago’s victory against the Browns was typical: they only gained 361 yards but benefited from a +3 net turnover margin. This is a team fueled by an incredible — and likely unsustainable — +20 net turnover margin. That is not only the best mark in the NFL, but it is +6 turnovers over the second-best team in terms of this metric. Their 30 takeaways lead the league. Their 10 turnovers are the second-fewest in the NFL — and the fewest turnovers after 14 games in franchise history. Yes, credit goes to rookie head coach Ben Johnson for helping second-year quarterback Caleb Williams to not force passes and risk interception. But they are recovering 67% of the fumbles on both sides of the ball so far this season. C’mon, the Regression Gods are on high alert. And even if you think that recovering fumbles is a 100% skill and the Regression Gods are akin to Santa Claus, they now take on a Packers team that is also recovering an unsustainable 67% of the fumbles in their game. Something's gotta give, so let’s look at yardage and efficiency. Chicago is only outgaining their opponents by -23.6 net Yards-Per-Game which more often equates to teams with an 8-6 record. They have a 6-2 record in games decided by one-scoring possession, including five too close for comfort wins against Las Vegas, Washington, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and the New York Giants, who are already out of the playoff hunt. The Bears are only tied for 14th in Net Expected Points Added per Play. They are a solid tied for 13th in EPA per play on offense and tied for 11th in Opponent EPA per Play Allowed. But then there is the history of ineptitude of this Chicago team against NFC North rivals. They are just 9-18-1 ATS in their last 28 games and 12-26-2 ATS in their 40 games against divisional opponents. And you can say: “But Frank, Johnson as their head coach changes everything from that futility of the past!” Maybe, but while Johnson’s Bears are 7-2-1 ATS this season in their 10 games against outside the division, they have failed to cover the point spread in three of their four division games. You then might say: “Yo, Sawyer, sample size!” Maybe, but what Minnesota, Detroit, and the Packers all have in common is their familiarity with Johnson when he was the offensive coordinator for the Lions the last few seasons. Chicago is just 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games at home against divisional opponents. And in their last 40 games against Green Bay, they have failed to cover the point spread 28 times. Williams is only completing 58.0% of his passes — this is not the Johnson offense he had with Jared Goff in Detroit. The Bears are also dealing with several impactful injuries. Middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is on injured reserve with a groin injury — his loss is massive. Williams is also without two key wide receivers, Rome Odunze and rookie Luther Burden III. Additionally, running back D’Andre Swift is questionable with a groin — and while rookie Kyle Monangi has emerged, his backup would be someone off the practice squad if Swift can’t go, since Roschon Johnson is on the injured list. To be fair, the Packers are not at 100% either. Of course, defensive end Micah Parsons is out for the season. But, remember, nine starters are back from last year’s defense that tanked sixth and fifth in the NFL by allowing 19.9 Points-Per-Game and 314.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Wide receiver Christian Watson and running back Josh Jacobs are also questionable. Watson is trending in the right direction, even if he mostly deserves to be a decoy for the recently returned Jayden Reed. Jacobs played last week, and he is tough as nails, so his not practicing on a short week this week because of a knee is not terribly concerning. The Packers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. For comparison's sake, Green Bay is outgaining their opponents by +47.3 net YPG. They are tied for eighth in Net EPA per Play. On offense, they are tied for second for Opponent EPA per Play Allowed and second in EPA per drop back in the passing game. And while the Bears rank tied for third in EPA per Rushing Attempt, the Packers rank tied for seventh in Opponent EPA per Rushing Attempt (and stopping the run is not Parsons strength). They have a 4-4-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession, so they are not experiencing late game luck, despite their fumble recovery success. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. They are also 24-15-1 ATS in their last 40 games against fellow NFC North rivals, including covering the point spread in all four of their games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against the NFC North. 

FINAL TAKE: The Packers won the first meeting between these two teams on December 7th by a 28-21 score as a 6.5-point favorite at home at Lambeau Field. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 same-season rematch games — and they are 9-18-1 ATS in their last 28 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 meetings with the Bears — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 trips to Soldier Field to take them on in Chicago. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (103) plus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the James Madison Dukes (291) and the Oregon Ducks (292) in the First Round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: James Madison (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 31-14 win against Troy as a 24.5-point favorite in the Sun Belt Conference championship game on December 5th. Oregon (11-1) has won six games in a row after their 26-14 win at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on November 29th. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Oregon is laying around three touchdowns in this game not because their offense is likely to put up a big number, but because the Dukes are going to struggle to score. The Ducks can get into low-scoring rock fights. They only beat Iowa an 18-16 margin. They beat Wisconsin by a 21-17 score. Their most recent game against the Huskies was low-scoring. Head coach Dan Lanning’s team is a flat-track bully when they can run the ball. In their eight point spread victories, they have generated 237.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game and 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. In their four point spread losses, they only averaged 180.3 rushing YPG and 5.1 YPC. Now here comes a James Madison defense that ranked second in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate and second in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. They held their opponents to just 76.2 Rushing YPG and 2.48 YPC. Now we need to give those numbers a grain of salt since most of their opponents were from Group of Five programs — but we do have a game against Louisville who rank 22nd in the FBS in Rush Success Rate to offer insight. James Madison limited the Cardinals to just 3.8 YPC and 113 rushing yards in that game — and 70% of that rushing production came from one play! Otherwise, Louisville averaged a mere 1.0 rushing YPC and only gained 264 total yards in their 28-14 victory. Oregon has played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 120 rushing YPG. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. Additionally, the Ducks have played 22 of their last 36 games Under the Total when favored. The Oregon defense has an elite secondary that helps limit explosive plays. They have allowed gains of 20 or more yards in just 3.3% of their opponent’s offensive snaps. At home, they are giving up only 243.7 total YPG, which is resulting in 14.3 PPG. Unfortunately for James Madison, in their game, they are big-play dependent. They rank outside the top 40 in the FBS in Quality Drives. They can also get into low-scoring rock fights — even against lesser competition. They only beat Georgia State by a 14-7 score. They beat UL-Lafayette by a 24-14 margin. They only played two defenses ranked in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’ SP+ top 30. Against Washington State and Louisville, they scored only 19 PPG and generated just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. And they do not have much of a passing game since they run the ball 63% of the time. James Madison has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, they have played 6 of those games Under the Total. But this Dukes' defense should frustrate the Oregon offense. They have not allowed more than 28 points all season. They lead the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed — and they are fourth in the nation by surrendering only 4.1 YPP. They rank eighth in Opponent Explosive Plays Allowed while giving up the 10th fewest plays of 20 or more yards. They rank fifth in Stuff Rate with eight different players with five or more Tackles for Loss. They also rank in the top 15 in Havoc Rate. In all, I think the James Madison defense compares to the Iowa and Wisconsin units that slowed the Ducks down. But they are going to struggle to score.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at slow and methodical paces. The Ducks rank outside the top 100 in seconds per play. The Dukes' rank 122nd in seconds per play — and they rank third in the nation in average Time of Possession. 25* CFB First Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the James Madison Dukes (291) and the Oregon Ducks (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (293) and the Mississippi Rebels (294) in the First Round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Tulane (11-2) has won five games in a row after their 34-21 upset win against North Texas as a 1-point underdog in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game on December 5th. Mississippi (11-1) has won five games in a row after their 38-19 win at Mississippi State as a 7-point favorite on November 28th. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rebels won the first meeting between these two teams on September 20th by a 45-10 score in a game where they generated 548 yards of offense. There are several regarding both teams to think that Ole Miss will not have as much success on offense in this rematch. Senior quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, a transfer from Ferris State, was an unknown quantity in head coach Lane Kiffin’s offense as he was just taking over for the injured Austin Simmons. Now the Green Wave defensive coaching staff have an entire season of game tape on him, including their experience with him. Head coach Jon Sumrall is a very good tactician — there is a reason why Florida just hired him as their head coach. He is still coaching Tulane throw their playoff run. After returning only three starters on defense but adding several talented transfers on that side of the ball, it took some time for that unit to gel. But the Green Wave held the Mean Green, the top statistical offense in the nation, to just 21 points in their last game. Since the beginning of November, they have held opposing rushers to just 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Tulane has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow American Athletic Conference rival. They have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. The offensive approach will likely be plenty of outsize zone rush attempts in two-tight end personnel utilizing the legs of quarterback Jake Rentzlaff. And Sumrall will certainly want to burn time off the clock and shorten this game. Mississippi has scored more than 38 points just once in their last eight games — and they have only given up more than 26 points twice this season. The Green Wave cannot get into a shootout. But what will be the approach of new Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding? Kiffin is gone to LSU — and he will take offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. with him once the Rebels’ playoff run is over. While Weis will still call plays, the game management philosophy now belongs to Golding, their defensive coordinator and protege of Nick Saban. I suspect that if Mississippi does get a big lead, his defensive mindset to protect the lead will kick in, rather than Kiffin’s tendency to begin recruiting by running up the scoreboard. Will Golding be as aggressive on fourth downs? Kiffin’s fondness to go for it on fourth downs generated 79 additional points from those successful extended drives this season. As it is, Ole Miss has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow SEC rival. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. And in their last 7 games after a bye week, they have played 5 of those games Under the Total. The Rebels get to host this game where they are holding their guests to 291.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.3 Points-Per-Game. Mississippi has played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total when favored, including 13 of those 20 games played at home. When these two teams played in September, the Rebels held the Green Wave to just 282 total yards with their lone touchdown being in garbage time against backups. There are several ways this game stays Under the Total — and I just don’t think Mississippi reaches the Over mostly by themselves given the circumstances of this rematch. 

FINAL TAKE: Ole Miss has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points, including five of those seven games played at home. 8* CFB Tulane-Ole Miss TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (293) and the Mississippi Rebels (294). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (296) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (295) in the First Round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (10-2) has won four games in a row after their 17-13 victory against LSU as a 12-point favorite on November 29th. Alabama (10-3) saw their two game winning streak snapped in their 28-7 loss against Georgia as a 1-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game on December 6th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINT(S): On my initial glance, I didn’t love fading an Alabama team coming off an upset loss and motivated to avenge a loss last month to their opponent. I address the revenge angle in my Final Take. I am wary that this is a proverbial “buy-low” spot on the Crimson Tide — especially when considering they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games after an upset loss under head coach Kalen DeBoer. On the other hand, Alabama has underachieved ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s pregame predictive metrics in four of their last six games — and they have only covered the point spread twice in those six contests. But are we just ignoring canaries in the coal mine? And do the normal bounce-back motivations for teams in this spot get corrupted by the long shadow on DeBoer coming from Ann Arbor? If the Tide loses this game, does DeBoer defect to take the Michigan job in the next week? Will the Alabama administration be happy to see him go? The loss against the Bulldogs was the fifth time in DeBoer’s two-year tenure that the Crimson Tide lost by at least 14 points. Under Nick Saban, Alabama lost only three times by 14 or more points in his 139 games. It’s bad vibes — making it even more difficult to overcome some fundamental problems with this football. The Tide can’t run the ball — they rank 131st in Rush Success Rate. They no longer have an endless supply of future NFL players rushing the passer — they have registered only two sacks in their last two games. The injury to defensive end L.T. Overton is not helping. After a strong start to the season, junior quarterback Ty Simpson is in a funk (and there are whispers he is playing through an injury). Half of his Turnover Worthy Plays this season have taken place in his last four games. His wide receivers have dropped 26 of his passes — including eight drops in their last two games. Sophomore Ryan Williams has not had the expected breakout season. And the Alabama special teams are not good at all — they rank 113th in Connelly’s SP+ rankings. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games played on grass. They have played five Unders in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing four or more Unders in a row. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl/playoff games. And in their last 8 bowl games, the underdog has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Oklahoma has a significant situational edge tonight with an extra week to rest for this contest — and the extra time to recover allows for their star defensive end R. Mason Thomas to return from injury after being out since November 1st. Head coach Brent Venables is one of the best defensive minds in college football — and he benefits from calling plays against Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb once already. And it is also another three weeks for quarterback John Mateer to rest the hand injury he played through in the second half of the season. The best unit on the field is the Sooners’ defense that ranks second in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and fifth in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. Their run defense leads the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate and Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They ranked third in Havoc Rate and registered 42 sacks. At home, they are holding their guests to 255.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 12.3 Points-Per-Game. They are outgaining their guests by +111.0 net YPG and outscoring them by +14.4 PPG. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home when favored. While they endured a -2 net turnover margin against the Tigers, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. And while the Tide are outscoring their opponents by +13.8 net PPG, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against opponents who outscore their opponents by +10 or more PPG. And don’t underestimate the edge the Sooners enjoy in special teams in this rematch. Oklahoma ranks 21st in SP+ for special teams — and they probably have the best placekicker in the nation, Tate Sandell. 

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, I am dismissing the revenge angle the Crimson Tide have in this game. The Sooners are not going to take this rematch lightly since they got outgained by -196 net yards. While many observers find those numbers as evidence that Oklahoma was the far inferior team — I give some benefit of the doubt to Venables with game management since they were already benefiting from a +3 net turnover margin. Venables’ Sooners upset DeBoer’s Alabama team last year by a 24-3 score despite being a 14-point underdog. Alabama is 2-2 ATS in their four revenge games since DeBoer took over last season. The only revenge opportunity in the playoffs last year was when Ohio State got the chance to avenge their regular season loss against Oregon — and while they thumped the Ducks in that quarterfinals showdown, that was on a neutral field at the Rose Bowl. Exacting revenge in a hostile environment in a virtual pick ‘em game is an entirely different matter. The Crimson Tide were outgained by -28.6 net YPG when playing on the road this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 9 games on the road in the DeBoer era. 10* CFB Alabama-Oklahoma ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (296) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (295). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (295) and the Oklahoma Sooners (296) in the First Round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Alabama (10-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their 28-7 loss against Georgia as a 1-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game on December 6th. Oklahoma (10-2) has won four games in a row after their 17-13 victory against LSU as a 12-point favorite on November 29th. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables is one of the best defensive minds in college football — and he benefits from calling plays against Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb once already. The extra time to recover allows for their star defensive end, R. Mason Thomas, to return from injury after being out since November 1st. The Sooners have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home after winning at home in their last game. And while they suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Tigers in the last game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Sooners’ defense ranks second in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and fifth in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. Their run defense leads the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate and Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They ranked third in Havoc Rate and registered 42 sacks. At home, they are holding their guests to 255.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 12.3 Points-Per-Game. But the offense has struggled in the second half of the season. In the last month of the regular season, Oklahoma ranked outside the top 100 in the nation in Rush Success Rate, Offensive Line Yards, and Stuff Rate Allowed. In their last three games, they only generated 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Overall, they rank 128th in Rush Success Rate — and they rank just 79th in Pass Success Rate. Oklahoma has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games at home when favored by up to seven points. Alabama also became one-dimensional with their offense. The Tide can’t run the ball — they rank 131st in Rush Success Rate. Furthermore, after a strong start to the season, junior quarterback Ty Simpson is in a funk (and there are whispers he is playing through an injury). Half of his Turnover Worthy Plays this season have taken place in his last four games. His wide receivers have dropped 26 of his passes — including eight drops in their last two games. Sophomore Ryan Williams has not had the expected breakout season. Alabama has played 9 straight Unders after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they have played five straight Unders in a row, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last contest. The Crimson Tide defense remains very good. They rank 12th in the nation in both giving up only 17.4 Points-Per-Game and 284.3 total Yards-Per-Game. They rank 26th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 36th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Alabama has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams from the SEC. 

FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when coming off a bye week — and the Sooners have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a bye week. Oklahoma won the first meeting between these teams by a 23-21 score in Tuscaloosa as a 6.5-point underdog on November 15th. Head coach Kalen DeBoer’s teams in his career have played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge, including all four of those games with Alabama. 8* CFB Friday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (295) and the Oklahoma Sooners (296). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-3) has won four games in a row after their 18-16 victory as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (11-3) has won two games in a row after their 41-34 victory against Detroit as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Weather will play a role in tonight’s game with rain expected. It will be windy at 15 to 20 miles per hour with gusts as high as 30 miles per hour. This does not help the team that plays their games at home indoors. To compound matters, Los Angeles had significant challenges getting to Seattle after their airplane needed repair. Bad vibes on a short week are not a good combination. The Rams have covered the point spread in their last two games while outgaining them both by +216 and +123 net yards. But Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games away from home after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 more net yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their 37 games under head coach Sean McVay after covering the point spread in their last two games. Rams’ wide receiver Davante Adams is doubtful to play in this game after re-aggravating a hamstring injury on Sunday. His absence will impact the explosive Los Angeles offense since he is quarterback Matthew Stafford’s primary target in the red zone. Adams leads the NFL with 14 touchdown catches and with 32 targets inside the red zone (six more targets than any other NFL player with at least 12 total touchdowns). Of the 32 targets in the red zone from Stafford, 25 of them were when Adams was his first read. Wide receiver Puka Nacua is great — but he does not thrive in catching touchdown passes. He only has six touchdown receptions this season after reaching the end zone only three times last year. Seattle held the Colts to just 215 total yards last week. They have held their last three opponents to only 25 combined points and 217.0 total YPG. This Seahawks defense is just getting better and better — rookie strong safety Nick Emmanwori is a rising star. They rank second in Opponent EPA per Play Allowed — and they are tops in Opponent EPA per Rush Allowed and fifth in Opponent EPA per Drop Back Allowed. Seattle has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. The Seahawks are also 9-6-2 ATS in their last 17 appearances on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks will be without starting left tackle Charles Cross, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. That is far from ideal. But Seattle should still be confident they can avenge their 21-19 loss in Los Angeles on November 16th in the first meeting between these teams since they outgained the Rams by +165 net yards. Back at home at Lumen Field in this rematch, the Seahawks are outscoring their opponents by +11.7 net PPG. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 9 of their 14 games under Macdonald when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (101) and the Seattle Seahawks (102). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-3) has won two games in a row after their 41-34 victory against Detroit as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (11-3) has won four games in a row after their 18-16 victory as a 13-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Weather will play a role in tonight’s game with rain expected. It will be windy at 15 to 20 miles per hour with gusts as high as 30 miles per hour. This does not help the team that plays their games at home indoors. Rain and wind are not helpful for passing attacks or kicking field goals — and those conditions may force both offenses to become one-dimensional running the ball. Rams’ wide receiver Davante Adams is doubtful to play in this game after re-aggravating a hamstring injury on Sunday. His absence will impact the explosive Los Angeles offense since he is quarterback Matthew Stafford’s primary target in the red zone. Adams leads the NFL with 14 touchdown catches and with 32 targets inside the red zone (six more targets than any other NFL player with at least 12 total touchdowns). Of the 32 targets in the red zone from Stafford, 25 of them were when Adams was his first read. Wide receiver Puka Nacua is great — but he does not thrive in catching touchdown passes. He only has six touchdown receptions this season after reaching the end zone only three times last year. Los Angeles’ defense should play better in this crucial NFC West rematch after last week’s shootout with the Lions. The Rams still rank fourth in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed with a balanced defensive unit that ranks fifth in Opponent EPA per Rush Allowed and eighth in Opponent EPA per Drop Back Allowed. They are surrendering just 326.8 total Yards-Per-Game, which is resulting in 18.6 Points-Per-Game — and they are limiting their home hosts to 316.8 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest, including five of those six games played on the road. The Seahawks are scoring 28.9 PPG — but the Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Seattle also generates 6.1 Yards-Per-Play — and LA has played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total against teams who average 5.65 or more YPP. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range, including six of those nine games played on the road. The Seahawks have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range, including five of those seven games played at home. Seattle held the Colts to just 215 total yards last week. They have held their last three opponents to only 25 combined points and 217.0 total YPG. This Seahawks defense is just getting better and better — rookie strong safety Nick Emmanwori is a rising star. They rank second in Opponent EPA per Play Allowed — and they are tops in Opponent EPA per Rush Allowed and fifth in Opponent EPA per Drop Back Allowed. On the other side of the ball, the offensive line will be without starting left tackle Charles Cross, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Not only does his absence threaten quarterback Sam Darnold’s blind side, but that will not help a rushing attack that ranks 28th in EPA per Rush Attempt. Seattle averages 350.6 total YPG — but that mark drops to 319.1 total YPG when playing at home. The Rams are scoring 30.0 PPG — but the Seahawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 24.0 or more PPG. Under head coach Mike Macdonald, Seattle has played 9 of their 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals, including five of those eight games played at home. Furthermore, these two teams have played 10 of their last 13 meetings Under the Total, including the Rams’ 21-19 victory in Los Angeles on November 16th when the Total was set at 49.5. 

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have scored at least 41 points in two straight games, with both those games seeing 62 or more combined points scored — but those big scoring numbers actually trigger a contrarian empirical angle supporting the Under that has been 89% effective since 1983. In games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, when one team has played two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored and now faces a team coming off a close win of three points or less, these games finished Under the Total in 24 of 27 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (101) and the Seattle Seahawks (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (483) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (484). THE SITUATION:  Miami (6-7) has won four games in a row after their 34-10 win in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (7-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 27-22 upset victory at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are playing better lately, with head coach Mike McDaniel doubling down on running the football. They controlled the time of possession last week by having their offense on the field for 36:07 minutes — and that helped them hold the Jets to just 207 yards of offense. With the temperatures dropping into the 20s tonight in Pittsburgh, expect Miami to continue to run the football. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown only one touchdown pass in his six starts with the temperature no higher than 40 degrees. The Dolphins have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow AFC East rival. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has played 6 straight Unders after pulling off an upset win on the road. They upset the Ravens last week despite only gaining 318 yards of offense and just 13 first downs. The Steelers are only generating 271.8 total Yards-Per-Game when playing at home, which is resulting in just 16.2 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Dolphins have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (483) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (484) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (483). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 27-22 upset victory at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (6-7) has won four games in a row after their 34-10 win in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are playing better lately, with head coach Mike McDaniel doubling down on running the football. But they are also feasting on bad teams with backup quarterbacks. In the last three weeks, they have played Washington using Marcus Mariota, New Orleans with Tyler Shough, and the Jets using Brady Cook at quarterback. Those three teams have combined for a 3-10 record — and yet two of Miami’s wins against those clubs were by just a field goal. The Dolphins benefited from a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a straight-up win against a divisional rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a win by 14 or more points. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 13 of 21 passes last week but for only 127 yards. The passing game is simply not as explosive with wide receiver Tyreek Hill out with an injury. Tagovailoa has not thrown for 200 or more yards in four straight games. Miami has lost 12 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record with Tagovailoa under center — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those 14 games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. On the road, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Furthermore, in their 20 games under McDaniel, when they are a single-digit underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those contests. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset victory, including four of those five games played at home. The encouraging aspect from last week’s win was that Aaron Rodgers not only threw the ball downfield, but he also completed all four of his passes of 20 or more air yards. The Steelers offense did not turn the ball over or suffer a quarterback sack last week — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games in the Mike Tomlin era after playing a game where they did not turn the ball over or endure a quarterback sack. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. The Steelers are only laying a field goal in this game. In their last 35 victories since 2022, when Pittsburgh wins the game outright, they have also covered the point spread in 34 of those games. Since Tomlin took over as their head coach, the Steelers have a 22-5 straight-up record on Monday Night Football, including an 11-1 mark when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: Tagovailoa still does not seem comfortable playing in the cold weather. It will be in the 20s tonight in Pittsburgh. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 9 games when the temperature was under 50 degrees with Tagovailoa under center — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games with the temperature under 40 degrees with Tagovailoa, with an average losing margin of -19.2 Points-Per-Game. Tagovailoa only has one touchdown and 12 interceptions when playing in under 40-degree weather. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (484) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (483). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (482) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (481). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-6-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 44-30 loss at Detroit as a 4-point underdog back on December 4th. Minnesota (5-8) ended their four-game losing streak in a 31-0 win at home against Washington as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has endured a difficult recent schedule against Philadelphia, Kansas City, and then the Lions to kick off week 14 last week. Dallas did outgain the Lions last week by +9 net yards by generating 417 yards of offense despite being without left tackle Tyler Guyton due to an injury. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games with Dak Prescott under center when playing with extra rest. Dallas should benefit from the mini-bye after playing the Thursday night game last week. The Cowboys caught an angry Lions last week, whose playoff aspirations are in jeopardy after losing to Green Bay on Thanksgiving. Their defense had been playing better after acquiring defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson in early November. In their previous six games before playing Detroit, they had allowed 340.7 total Yards-Per-Game, which is -37.9 YPG less than their season average. Now they return home, where they are generating 431.0 YPG, which is resulting in 32.7 Points-Per-Game. Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games at home this season, with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record, including five of those seven games played at home. Minnesota benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin last week in their shutout win against the Commanders. J.J. McCarthy comes off perhaps the best game in his professional career by completing 69.6% of his passes with three touchdown passes. But he still only threw the ball 23 times — and the Vikings only gained 313 total yards of offense despite having their offense on the field for 34:52 minutes in that game. McCarthy is still not on the same page with Justin Jefferson, who has only caught four passes for 15 yards in his last two games. Head coach Kevin O’Connell finally adapted his play-calling to draw up some plays that would create some quick targets for McCarthy — but that meant a lot of targets for the tight ends that were not the primary targets that Washington was defending. The offensive line is finally healthy for the Vikings — but this remains a work in progress. Long term, I remain high on McCarthy. But as of now, this offense is still not in sync between the play-caller, the star wide receivers, and the young quarterback. This is the first time in McCarthy’s career that he is dealing with week-to-week adversity. Now he goes back on the road where Minnesota is only generating 196.6 total YPG, which is resulting in a mere 14.0 PPG. I appreciate that those numbers are impacted by their banged-up offensive line, which is finally at full strength again. But still, they are getting outgained by -112.0 net YPG and outscored by -12.8 PPG when playing on the road. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in all 4 of their games this season after winning their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 15 prime-time games under O’Connell — and the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games in prime-time. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (482) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (481) and the Dallas Cowboys (482). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-8) ended their four-game losing streak in a 31-0 win at home against Washington as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (6-6-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 44-30 loss at Detroit as a 4-point underdog back on December 4th. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Minnesota benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin last week in their shutout win against the Commanders — and their defense held them to just 206 yards of offense. J.J. McCarthy comes off perhaps the best game in his professional career by completing 69.6% of his passes with three touchdown passes. But he still only threw the ball 23 times — and the Vikings only gained 313 total yards of offense despite having their offense on the field for 34:52 minutes in that game. McCarthy is still not on the same page with Justin Jefferson, who has only caught four passes for 15 yards in his last two games. Head coach Kevin O’Connell finally adapted his play-calling to draw up some plays that would create some quick targets for McCarthy — but that meant a lot of targets for the tight ends that were not the primary targets that Washington was defending. The offensive line is finally healthy for the Vikings — but this remains a work in progress. Long term, I remain high on McCarthy. But as of now, this offense is still not in sync between the play-caller, the star wide receivers, and the young quarterback. This is the first time in McCarthy’s career that he is dealing with week-to-week adversity. I suspect O’Connell’s game plan will once again be to lean on his now healthy offensive line to run the ball, control the time of possession, and keep the Cowboys’ offense off the field. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win. The Vikings have also played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total in the second half of the season. Minnesota is only generating 196.6 total YPG away from home, which is resulting in a mere 14.0 PPG. Dallas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 3 of their last 4 games at home Under the Total in December. The Cowboys caught an angry Lions last week, whose playoff aspirations are in jeopardy after losing to Green Bay on Thanksgiving. But their defense had been playing better after acquiring defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson in early November. In their previous six games before playing Detroit, they had allowed 340.7 total Yards-Per-Game, which is -37.9 YPG less than their season average. 

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 26 of their last 40 games in prime-time Under the Total — and the Cowboys have played 16 of their last 25 games on Sunday Night Football Under the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (481) and the Dallas Cowboys (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-9) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 37-9 loss at home against Seattle as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-20 upset loss at home against New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers continue to underachieve despite outgaining the Saints last week by +41 net yards. They continue to struggle out of the gates — they were tied with New Orleans by a 7-7 score after the first quarter. After covering the 1st Quarter point spread in 11 of their 17 regular season games last season, they have failed to cover the 1st Quarter point spread in 11 of their 13 games this season. This failure to meet early expectations changes the game script while giving hope to their opposition. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has looked banged up recently. He is averaging only 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in his last seven starts, which ranks last for qualifying quarterbacks over that span. Tampa Bay is generating only 4.4 Yards-Per-Play during that span, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL. The offense is getting healthy again — but the Falcons defense presents a challenge given their excellent pass rush. Atlanta ranks eighth in the league in pressure rate and sixth in pass rush win rate. Mayfield’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games at home when favored. Under head coach Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against fellow NFC South rivals. It’s Kirk Cousins under center for Atlanta after Michael Penix’s season-ending injury — and he struggled last week against the outstanding Seahawks’ defense. But Cousins is performing much better against teams that blitz — and the Buccaneers blitz at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Cousins has a Quarterback Rating of 115 this season against the blitz when he can use his veteran savvy to find the open receiver from the open space caused by rushing the extra pass rusher. His QBR drops to 60.8 when facing a four-man pass rush. Cousins torched the Buccaneers in his two starts last season. He posted a 127.8 QBR in those two games — he completed 74.7% of his passes for 785 yards with eight touchdown passes and only one interception. The Falcons scored 36 and 31 points in those two games last season. Cousins led Atlanta to 24 points in each of his first two starts since the Penix injury — and he completed 66.0% of his passes in those two games. Wide receiver Drake London is out for tonight’s game — but tight end Kyle Pitts is expected to take the field tonight, and he is playing better. It should be a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the ground game to take advantage of what should be a vulnerable Tampa Bay run defense. The Buccaneers rank second in the league in Opponent Rush Success Rate — but they will be without linebacker SirVocea Dennis due to a hip injury, and safety Tykee Smith is doubtful with a neck/shoulder issue. Dennis ranks fourth of all linebackers in the NFL with a missed tackle rate of 2.2% — and his 9.3% run stop rate ranks in the top ten. Former Falcons linebacker Deion Jones will step into his spot, who does not have a reputation as a strong run defender. Smith has a run stop rate of 6.5% which ranks second amongst safeties. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games under head coach Raheem Morris after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a loss at home. And while the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight contests. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 appearances in prime-time — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-9) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 37-9 loss at home against Seattle as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-20 upset loss at home against New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Falcons have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have lost and failed to cover the point spread in two games in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two games in a row. It’s Kirk Cousins under center for Atlanta after Michael Penix’s season-ending injury — and he struggled last week against the outstanding Seahawks’ defense. But Cousins is performing much better against teams that blitz — and the Buccaneers blitz at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Cousins has a Quarterback Rating of 115 this season against the blitz when he can use his veteran savvy to find the open receiver from the open space caused by rushing the extra pass rusher. His QBR drops to 60.8 when facing four-man pass rush. Cousins torched the Buccaneers in his two starts last season. He posted a 127.8 QBR in those two games — he completed 74.7% of his passes for 785 yards with eight touchdown passes and only one interception. The Falcons scored 36 and 31 points in those two games last season. Cousins led Atlanta to 24 points in each of his first two starts since the Penix injury — and he completed 66.0% of his passes in those two games. Wide receiver Drake London is out for tonight’s game — but tight end Kyle Pitts is expected to take the field tonight and he is playing better. It should be a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the ground game to take advantage of what should be a vulnerable Tampa Bay run defense. The Buccaneers rank second in the league in Opponent Rush Success Rate — but they will be without linebacker SirVocea Dennis due to a hip injury and safety Tykee Smith is doubtful with a neck/shoulder issue. Dennis ranks fourth of all linebackers in the NFL with a missed tackle rate of 2.2% — and his 9.3% run stop rate ranks in the top ten. Former Falcons linebacker Deion Jones will step into his spot who does not have a reputation as a strong run defender. Smith has a run stop rate of 6.5% which ranks second amongst safeties. Atlanta has played 8 of their 12 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points under head coach Raheem Morris. They have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Buccaneers are reeling right now — but their offense will be as healthy as it all season with wide receivers Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan expected back from injury. Suddenly, Mayfield may have a loaded group for his wide receiver corps with those two players joining Chris Godwin, rookie phenom Emeka Egbuka, and emerging players who were relied upon after the injury bug like rookie Tez Johnson. They have three running backs who have all had great games this season in Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker. Injuries on the offensive line have also played a role — but their outstanding left tackle Tristan Wirfs was a full go in practice yesterday and should return to action tonight. In my summer deep dive of this team, I described the offensive talent as an embarrassment of riches. Not that they are getting healthy, I would not be surprised to see a breakout game. Tampa Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, including seven of those nine games played at home. Under head coach Todd Bowles, they have played 10 of their 15 games Over the Total in December — and they have played 4 of their 5 games Over the Total against teams winning 25-40% of their games. The Falcons surrender 131.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and the Buccaneers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams that allow 130 or more rushing YPG, including five of those six games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay won the first meeting between these games on September 7th by a 23-20 score as a 1-point underdog. Atlanta has played 8 of their last 12 opportunities for revenge Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games under Morris Over the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (146) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (145). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won four of their last five games after their 31-14 win against Las Vegas as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (8-4) had won four games in a row before their 24-15 upset loss at home against Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite two Fridays ago. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Justin Herbert is expected to take the field tonight despite fracturing his left hand in last week’s game. He had surgery on Monday after playing through the injury against the Raiders. Los Angeles did activate rookie running back Omarian Hampton for tonight’s game -- so the running back room gets back their first-round draft pick. The Chargers held the Raiders to just 156 total yards last week. Their defense has not allowed more than 20 points in four of their last five games — and they have held three of those opponents to 14 or fewer points. At home, they are surrendering 266.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 19.8 Points-Per-Game. They are outgaining their opponents by +45.8 net YPG game at home, which is resulting in them outscoring their opponents by +5.2 PPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range, including all five of those games played at home. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December since head coach Jim Harbaugh arrived. Philadelphia only gained 317 total yards last week against the Bears in what has become an existential crisis about the state of their offense. I admit I don’t know what exactly is going on yet. It has been rumored for years that head coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts have a chilly relationship. Things went south two years ago when offensive coordinator Shane Steichen left to take the Indianapolis Colts head coaching position. Sirianni tapped quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson to be the OC — but that was a disaster. Hurts had thrived in RPO formations where he could audible out of the play based on the look of the defense. But the Baltimore Ravens' defensive revolution of changing formation post-snap foils these pre-snap reads. The Chargers’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter comes from that school of thought, circa replacing Seattle head coach Mike MacDonald as the defensive coordinator at Michigan after years as an assistant coach with the Ravens. Sirianni brought in Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator last year — and he was able to design an offense that Hurts was successful in, albeit while asking less of him and more of newly acquired running back Saquon Barkley in free agency. Barkley had 46 rushes of more than 10 yards last year — and that home run threat compelled opposing defenses to stack the box. Hurts then found success in the passing game against the single high safety looks he would then face, especially in the Super Bowl. But this year is different. Hurts has his fourth offensive coordinator in four years, and Kevin Patulla appears too similar to Johnson from two years ago. Sirianni and Patulla may not be offensive geniuses — and they appear not to trust Hurts with decision-making. The game tape experts who know more about studying the all-22 tape than I have been vocal in decrying the Eagles’ schematic concepts are basic. They certainly seem predictable. They still don’t use motion — and I think that is because Sirianni does not trust Hurts to interpret the defense after the movement. Barkley has not been the same this season — and it is hard to argue with the fantasy football folks who were concerned that his 485 touches last season triggered some concerning regression trends following historically great seasons. After averaging 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season, he is down to 3.7 YPC this year. Compounding the problem is that the offensive line is not nearly as dominant this season after losing Mekhi Bechton in free agency. Now their elite right tackle, Lane Johnson, is out with a foot injury for this game. So while Barkley is not as fresh as he was last year, the offensive line is not as stout, the braintrust is not as good in scheming and calling plays, there is something deeper rotting in Denmark regarding the chemistry of the main characters in this story, including wide receiver A.J. Brown. They have not scored more than 21 points in four straight games — and they are averaging just 15.5 PPG during that stretch. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles will not have defensive tackle Jalen Carter — and he has emerged as one of the best players for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. This Philadelphia team has similar vibes to the one that imploded two years ago in that embarrassing loss at Tampa Bay in the playoffs. Do the players even respect Sirianni? Under his leadership, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. 

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football — and their lone win during that stretch was a game where they only scored 10 points. Philly is also just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Chargers. And in the Eagles’ last five games played in the Mountain or Pacific time zones, they have not given up more than 20 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (146) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (145) and the Los Angeles Chargers (146). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-4) had won four games in a row before their 24-15 upset loss at home against Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite two Fridays ago. Los Angeles (8-4) has won four of their last five games after their 31-14 win against Las Vegas as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Jim Harbaugh is willing to zig with his offense when the expectation is that he will jag. After establishing a firm reputation as a run-first team in his final two seasons at Michigan, his A-Plan against Ohio State in both those final two years (and against TCU and Alabama in both college football semifinal games) was to pass early and often behind J.J. McCarthy (trust me, the proof is on YouTube). And after establishing a run-first approach even with Justin Herbert at quarterback last season, Harbaugh had Herbert firing early this season with 33 or more pass attempts in six of their first seven games, including 41 or more passes in three of those games. But after season-ending injury to left tackle Rashawn Slater was followed up by the season-ending injury to second-year tackle (and former first round draft pick) Joe Alt in early November, the offense has not passed for more than 212 yards and not asked their quarterbacks to throw more than 33 times in their last five contests. Herbert is questionable after fracturing his left hand in last week’s game. He had surgery on Monday and is expected to play. If he does not play, then it will be Trey Lance making his sixth start in the NFL — and he has only engineered five touchdown drives in his career. So, not good, Bob. Assuming Herbert does play after just a week removed from surgery, look for another conservative game plan from Harbaugh to protect his quarterback from this banged up offensive line. The Chargers are finding success grinding out low-scoring games. They held the Raiders to just 156 total yards last week. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total. Their defense has not allowed more than 20 points in four of their last five games — and they have held three of those opponents to 14 or fewer points. At home, they are surrendering 266.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 19.8 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow AFC West rival. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Philadelphia only gained 317 total yards last week against the Bears in what has become an existential crisis about the state of their offense. I admit I don’t know what exactly is going on yet. It has been rumored for years that head coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts have a chilly relationship. Things went south two years ago offensive coordinator Shane Steichen left to take the Indianapolis Colts head coaching position. Sirianni tapped quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson to be the OC — but that was a disaster. Hurts had thrived in RPO formations where he could audible out of the play based on the look of the defense. But the Baltimore Ravens' defensive revolution of changing formation post-snap foils these pre-snap reads. The Chargers’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter comes from that school of thought, circa replacing Seattle head coach Mike MacDonald as the defensive coordinator at Michigan after years as an assistant coach with the Ravens. Sirianni brought in Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator last year — and he was able to design an offense that Hurts was successful in, albeit while asking less of him and more of newly acquired running back Saquon Barkley in free agency. Barkley had 46 rushes of more than 10 yards last year — and that home run threat compelled opposing defenses to stack the box. Hurts then found success in the passing game against the single high safety looks he would then face, especially in the Super Bowl. But this year is different. Hurts has his fourth offensive coordinator in four years, and Kevin Patulla appears too similar to Johnson from two years ago. Sirianni and Patulla may not be offensive geniuses — and they appear not to trust Hurts with decision-making. The game tape experts who know more about studying the all-22 tape than I have been vocal in decrying the Eagles’ schematic concepts are basic. They certainly seem predictable. They still don’t use motion — and I think that is because Sirianni does not trust Hurts to interpret the defense after the movement. Barkley has not been the same this season — and it is hard to argue with the fantasy football folks who were concerned that his 485 touches last season triggered some concerning regression trends following historically great seasons. After averaging 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season, he is down to 3.7 YPC this year. Compounding the problem is that the offensive line is not nearly as dominant this season after losing Mekhi Bechton in free agency. Now their elite right tackle, Lane Johnson, is out with a foot injury for this game. So while Barkley is not as fresh as he was last year, the offensive line is not as stout, the braintrust is not as good in scheming and calling plays, there is something deeper rotting in Denmark regarding the chemistry of the main characters in this story, including wide receiver A.J. Brown. They have not scored more than 21 points in four straight games — and they are averaging just 15.5 PPG during that stretch. They are generating only 291.5 total YPG on the road. But the defense is keeping this team competitive — and that group got even better after acquiring linebacker Jaelan Phillips and cornerback Michael Carter II at the trade deadline. They have held their last six opponents to 17.5 PPG, with none of those opponents scoring more than 24 points. In the Eagles’ last five games played in the Mountain or Pacific time zones, they have not given up more than 20 points. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also played 12 of their 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss since Sirianni took over as their head coach, including five of those seven games played on the road. With Hurts under center, the Eagles have played 22 of their last 34 games on the road Under the Total. The Chargers control time of possession for almost 33 minutes per game — and Philadelphia has played all 6 of their games Under the Total under Sirianni against teams who average 32 or more minutes per game. And while Los Angeles 5.7 Yards-Per-Play, the Eagles have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams who are generating 5.65 YPP. 

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 13-3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 17 games on Monday Night Football, including five straight unders when playing on the road. The Chargers have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football, including four of their last five contests. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (145) and the Los Angeles Chargers (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (143). THE SITUATION:  Kansas City (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-28 upset loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday. Houston (7-5) has won four games in a row after their 20-16 upset win at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs are now really banged up on their offensive line. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons was placed on injured reserve last week after suffering a wrist injury on Thanksgiving. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor and their elite right guard Trey Smith are also doubtful with knee and ankle injuries, respectively. But in head coach Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, we trust. Or maybe I have even more distrust for the Texans' offensive line, which has general manager Nick Caserio rather than injuries to blame. The good news is that right tackle Jaylon Moore has been upgraded to probable despite dealing with an illness. Wanya Morris will get the nod at left tackle after starting 11 games last season. Backup Mike Caliendo will get slotted into the right guard spot. Far from ideal, but Kansas City did win nine of Moore's ten starts last season (not counting their 38-0 loss in the final week of the regualr season when Reid rested his starters and Morris played). The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 19 of the 31 games played with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range since Reid took over as their head coach. On the other side of the ball, I also trust defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Chiefs’ defense surrendered more than 22 points for just the second time in their last seven games. When playing at home, Kansas City is giving up only 247.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.0 Points-Per-Game. Houston is getting nice play out of free agent signee Ed Ingram at right guard — but they have still not scored more than 23 points in three straight contests and four of their last five contests. On the road, the Texans are generating only 314.3 total YPG, which is resulting in 19.7 PPG. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Texans are also 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games played on Sunday Night Football. 

FINAL TAKE: The temperature will be in the high-20s tonight — so we have a dome team led by C.J. Stroud facing Mahomes and a team that has weathered these conditions many times. In 26 career starts indoors, he has a 98.4 QBR with a 66.1% completion percentage, an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average, and averages 262.2 passing YPG. In his 15 starts outdoors, his QBR drops to 83.6 with a 60.4% completion percentage, a 6.4 YPA, and a 198.6 passing YPG mark. This is just his fourth NFL start when the temperature was not higher than 40 degrees. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Houston (7-5) has won four games in a row after their 20-16 upset win at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-28 upset loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs are now really banged up on their offensive line. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons was placed on injured reserve last week after suffering a wrist injury on Thanksgiving. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor and their elite right guard Trey Smith are also doubtful with a knee and ankle injuries, respectively. The good news is that right tackle Jaylon Moore has been upgraded to probable despite dealing with an illness. But Moore is the tackle notorious for committing false start penalties — so when head coach Andy Reid was asked about the possibility of moving Moore to left tackle if Taylor was unable to go this week, he indicated that he would keep Moore at right tackle and insert backup Wanya Morris at left tackle. Morris was the starting left tackle last season — but after allowing five sacks, 35 pressures, and committing ten penalties in 11 games last year, he seemed to be the reason the team drafted Simmons and signed Taylor in free agency to have double protection from having to return to Morris. Backup Mike Caliendo will get slotted into the right guard spot. Far, far, away from ideal. I think this development will compel Reid to embrace a heavy run script to protect quarterback Patrick Mahomes from this ferocious Texans defensive line. As it is, the Chiefs have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their 18 games under Reid’s tenure Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. They have played 21 of their 32 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road since Reid took over. Additionally, they have played 6 straight games at home Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ defense surrendered more than 22 points for just the second time in their last seven games. When playing at home, Kansas City is giving up only 247.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.0 Points-Per-Game. The Chiefs have played 18 of their last 25 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Houston held the Colts to just 281 yards last week in their four-point victory. The Texans are holding their opponents to just 265.7 total YPG, which is resulting in 16..9 PPG — and their defense travels as they are limiting their home hosts to only 16.2 PPG. They have not given up more than 19 points in three straight games and five of their last six contests. On the other side of the ball, Houston is getting nice play out of free agent signee Ed Ingram at right guard — but they have still not scored more than 23 points in three straight contests and four of their last five contests. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow AFC South rival. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting seven points or less. On the road, the Texans are generating only 314.3 total YPG, which is resulting in 19.7 PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is outscoring their opponents by +6.1 net PPG — and the Texans have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams that are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. The Chiefs have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record, including 8 of those 10 games played at home. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (120) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (119) in the Big Ten championship game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (12-0) overcame their white whale last Saturday in their 27-9 victory on the road against Michigan as a 9-point favorite. Indiana (12-0) continued their unbeaten season in their 56-3 win against Purdue as a 28-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I have never been more impressed with Ohio State head coach Ryan Day last Saturday, both with his game management against the Wolverines and with his post-game comments. OK, admittedly, I wish he would stop using the word toughness when it was obvious — and the final step when embracing “humility” is simply being humble rather than wearing Dan Campbell’s “Grit” t-shirt or the frat boys wearing “Big Johnson” t-shirts on spring break. But Day has come a long way from strutting about “toughness” in calling out octogenarian Lou Holtz as he did just last season. I think the existential crisis Day encountered after losing to Michigan last season triggered the soul-searching he and his club needed to fully define who they wanted to be moving forward. They handled all four of their opponents in the college football playoff pretty easily en route to their national championship last season (+70 against the spread). His decision not to take back the play-calling on offense after Chip Kelly called the plays last year, but instead let Brian Hartline return to offensive coordinator with the added responsibility of calling the plays, was mature and best for the team. Day needs to run the team, not the offense. And the Buckeyes are now 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 games since that upset loss to the Wolverines last season. They began this season with a 14-7 victory against Texas in that opening game showdown in redshirt freshman Julian Sayin’s first collegiate start —  but, whatever, the assignment for Day in that game was to secure the win rather than worry about style points. Now the Longhorns are sweating out making the college football playoff, while Day was able to gradually build Sayin’s confidence while knowing they could lose twice and still make the playoff. And Sayin has been great while leading the Buckeyes to another 11 straight wins, all decided by at least 18 points. Ohio State experienced the worst start imaginable against their arch rivals last week. Michigan scored a field goal on their first drive and then picked off Sayin on his first pass. The snow was falling in Ann Arbor. The circumstances were in place for yet another Buckeyes choke job. Instead, the outstanding Ohio State defense held the Wolverines to a field goal — and then the Buckeyes proceeded to outscore Michigan by a decisive 27-3 margin the rest of the way. Sayin was not fazed as he completed 19 of his 26 passes for 244 yards with three touchdowns. He can win the Heisman Trophy with a big game, as he currently leads the FBS in on-target pass rate. In his 348 dropbacks, he has a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.4% —  and that mark only increases to 2.2% when under pressure. This dude is special — and he has two NFL-ready wide receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Sayin leads the nation in QBR and completion percentage — and he possesses a 66% success rate in the passing game against Cover-2 pass coverages, which is the Hoosiers’ preferred look. The Buckeyes have also found their answer at running back with freshman Bo Jackson emerging in the second half of the season. Indiana is only giving up 251.8 total Yards-Per-Game — but Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams who are not giving up more than 310 YPG. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a win by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road. What is even more remarkable about this team is that they are probably more dominant on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes have not allowed more than 16 points in any game all season — and they lead the nation by surrendering only 3.77 Yards-Per-Play. I’m not ready to say that first-year defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is the best defensive mind in the world — but he has coordinated defenses that won Super Bowls. It’s just a big edge over the Hoosiers’ offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, who was coordinating the James Madison offense only two years ago. Middle linebacker Arvell Reese may be the first defensive player drafted next April in the NFL draft — and free safety Caleb Downs will soon be a back-to-back All-American. Ohio State has not surrendered more than 10 points in four straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last game as well as having covered the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after not giving up more than 14 points in three or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Regarding Indiana, one has to be impressed by what head coach Curt Cignetti has done in his two seasons in Bloomington. But I’m not ready to buy that the Hoosiers are on the elite level of teams like the Buckeyes. They only beat Iowa on the road by a 20-15 score. They survived a 27-24 scare at Penn State, playing without quarterback Drew Allar — and Ohio State beat the Nittany Lions by 24 points. Indiana’s signature win was against Oregon — but, frankly, I’m not sure about the Ducks at this point either. Cignetti has thrived off the portal — but the Buckeyes' high school recruiting is elite before they poach players to fill specific roster needs in the portal. Former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza may have shorter odds to win the Heisman right now versus Sayin — but six of his nine turnover-worthy plays have taken place in his last four games. Nine of the 15 sacks he has taken have also taken place in his last four contests. Against Oregon, he only passed 215 yards after completing 20 of 31 passes. The NFL scouts I pay attention to are not gushing over his prospects at the next level. The Buckeyes are scoring 37.0 PPG — and the Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games against teams scoring 31 or more PPG since Cignetti took over last year. Indiana is just 1-2 ATS in their three games as an underdog under Cignetti and they did not cover the point spread in their playoff last year in their 27-17 loss at Notre Dame. Weather was an issue in their 38-15 loss at Ohio State last year — but they did get outgained by -165 net yards. I’m just not buying that beating this season’s Origin team proves the Hoosiers have arrived to keep things close with Ohio State, finally.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher since Cignetti took over. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 24 of their 37 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games since Day took over, including 12 of those last 13 contests. And while the Hoosiers are outscoring their opponents by +33.4 net PPG this season, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (120) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (109) in the Mountain West Conference championship game. THE SITUATION: Boise State (8-4) has won two games in a row after their 25-24 win at Utah State as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. UNLV (10-2) has won four games in a row after their 42-17 victory at Nevada as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rebels may have only lost twice this season, but a deeper look at their resume reveals some concerning elements. They began their season by beating Idaho State by only a touchdown. They then beat Sam Houston and were fortunate to catch UCLA when that program hit rock bottom and fired their head coach. They then escaped on the road against Miami (OH) by a field goal despite the RedHawks losing starting quarterback DeQuan Finn to injury midway through that game — and Miami (OH) was driving for a potential winning or tying score before fumbling the ball away in the red zone late in that game. Then, in a hail storm in Wyoming, they returned to blocked punts for a touchdown to beat the Cowboys by 14 points despite getting outgained by 101 yards. They returned home to beat Air Force by a field goal despite getting outgained again by surrendering 602 yards of offense. At 6-0, they traveled to Albertson’s Stadium to face this Broncos team — and they got blown out by a 56-31 score (more on that game below). They then returned home, where they lost to New Mexico by five points. UNLV has since won four games in a row with their defense playing better by only giving up 16 Points-Per-Game — but Colorado State, Utah State, Hawai’i, and then the Wolf Pack last week combined for just a 12-20 record in conference play. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against a fellow Mountain West Conference rival. It is big games like this that are why the UNLV administration has to get out their checkbooks to lure Dan Mullen away from the cushy ESPN studios. But Mullen developed a reputation for not being able to deliver in big games in his previous stint at Florida. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 11 games in December in his head coaching career. His teams have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games on the road with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of the 4 contests this season against teams with a winning record. The UNLV defense is the weak link in this game — that unit ranks outside the top 100 in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and Opponent Explosive Plays Allowed. Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 straight games against conference rivals following a victory by seven points or less. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. And while they did not force a turnover last week against the Aggies, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games under head coach Spencer Danielson after not forcing a turnover in their previous game. The offense gets starting quarterback Maddux Madsen back from the ankle injury suffered at the beginning of November. He passed for 253 yards with four touchdowns in the earlier game against UNLV this season. The Broncos are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and the Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against opponents who average 425 or more YPG. And while UNLV averages 463.3 total YPG and 37.2 PPG, Boise State has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams scoring 34.0 PPG, and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams that are averaging 425 or more YPG. At home, the Broncos are outscoring their opponents by +19.3 PPG and outgaining them by +175.5 net YPG due to their stingy defense that is holding their guests to 290.0 YPG and 22.5 PPG. Boise State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when laying 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home against Mountain West Conference rivals.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV does have the revenge angle — but teams playing with same-season revenge in conference championship games are a flat 29-29 ATS in those last 58 situations. The Rebels were in a revenge spot in last year’s MWC championship game after a 29-24 loss in Las Vegas in the regular season — but they lost the rematch by a 21-7 score as a 4-point underdog. The Broncos own the Rebels with nine straight victories against them — and UNLV has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against them despite the revenge motivation. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (102) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Detroit (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset loss at home against Green Bay as a 3-point favorite on Thursday. Dallas (6-5-1) has won three games in a row after their 31-28 upset victory at home as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit is really banged up on both sides of the football — but they still have quarterback Jared Goff, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and pass rush extraordinaire Aiden Hutchinson. The Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after playing on Thanksgiving. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after losing their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their 19 games after surrendering 30 or more points since Dan Campbell took over as their head coach. Detroit failed to convert on their two fourth down attempts against the Packers last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game where they attempted to convert on at least one fourth down but failed to deliver even once. The Lions have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games played at home. Dallas is not at full strength with left tackle Tyler Guyton out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys are averaging 355.2 total YPG on the road, which is -37.9 net YPG below their season average — and the 25.8 PPG they are scoring away from home is -3.5 net PPG below their season average. Quarterback Dak Prescott’s 232.2 passing YPG average on the road is -79.1 net YPG below what he is averaging at home. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as a single-digit underdog with Prescott under center.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games against teams with a winning record — and the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record with Prescott starting at quarterback. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (102) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-5-1) has won three games in a row after their 31-28 upset victory at home as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday. Detroit (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset loss at home against Green Bay as a 3-point favorite on Thursday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys' defense has significantly improved after acquiring defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson at the trade deadline. In their last three games with those two on the field, they are only giving up 21.7 Points-Per-Game and 312.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The run defense -- a big weakness when they had Micah Parsons — is holding opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three contests. On the other side of the ball, Dallas is not at full strength with left tackle Tyler Guyton out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys are averaging 355.2 total YPG on the road, which is -37.9 net YPG below their season average — and the 25.8 PPG they are scoring away from home is -3.5 net PPG below their season average. Quarterback Dak Prescott’s 232.2 passing YPG average on the road is -79.1 net YPG below what he is averaging at home. Dallas has played only 4 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 higher since the beginning of the 2023 season — and they have played 3 of those games Under the Total. They have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing on turf. And in their last 8 games played in December, they have played 5 of those contests Under the Total. Detroit is dealing with several injuries that will limit what they want to do on offense. Tight end Sam LaPorta is already on injured reserve with a back injury. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is doubtful with the ankle injury that he suffered last week against the Packers. Those absences leave the remaining targets for quarterback Jared Goff pretty thin. The offensive line is banged up as well, with left tackle Frank Ragnow, right tackle Penei Sewell, and center Graham Glasgow all questionable with injuries. Left guard Kayoffe Awosika is out with an injury as well — and he was spelling for Christian Mahogany, who is on the injured list, leaving the Lions to their third stringer at that position. As it is, Detroit is only scoring 22.3 PPG in their last three games — and some of that may be due to head coach Dan Campbell taking over the play-calling duties. In their last two games, the Lions have not converted even once in their seven fourth down attempts — but the stubborn Campbell is likely to continue to bypass three points to take the chance that his offense can extend drives and get closer to the end zone. Detroit has played 16 of their 24 games Under the Total after surrendering 30 or more points in their last game since Campbell took over, including three of their last four games Under the Total when played at Ford Field. 

FINAL TAKE: The Lions are scoring 29.2 PPG this season — and that helps to trigger an empirical situational angle that has been 75% effective since 2021. In the last 52 NFL games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, when one of the teams is scoring 24 or more PPG and comes off a game where they gave up 30 or more points in their last contest, those games finished Under the Total 39 times. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (483) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (484). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost six games in a row after their 34-27 loss in overtime at Detroit as a 14-point underdog last Sunday. New England (10-2) has won nine games in a row after their 26-20 victory at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York is much better than their 2-10 record. They outgained the Lions last week at Ford Field by +23 net yards and won the first down battle by a 25-23 margin. They have lost five of their six games decided by one scoring possession — and four of those losses have been in each of their last four games. Head coach Brian Daboll was finally fired on November 10th — he was a hot head who did not do a good job of nurturing a winning culture in his four seasons. The team is playing hard for offensive coordinator and interim head coach Mike Kafka. After last week’s game, Kafka fired defensive coordinator Shane Bowens — and that move is probably addition by subtraction. The knock on Bowens is that he does not adjust his scheme to his players — and there is talent on the defensive roster. Outside linebacker coach Charlie Bullen takes over running the defense, and I am expecting an immediate improvement. Bowens deserves some of the blame for all the double-digit blown leads this team has suffered this season. In their last six games, they have lost four of them despite possessing the lead in the fourth quarter. In Denver, the Giants were up 26-8 before losing by a 33-32 score. At home against Chicago, they had a 20-10 lead before losing, 24-20. They had a 20-19 lead at home against Green Bay before giving up the final eight points. Against the Lions last week, they were up 27-16. Veteran quarterback Jameis Winston played well for them in the last two games, but rookie Jaxson Dart will return under center tonight. He should expose a suspect Patriots secondary that ranks 27th in DVOA defense against deep passes using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Dart ranks fifth in the NFL in completion rate of deep passes of 20 or more air yards. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games with Dart under center as an underdog getting three or more points. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road, including five of those seven games played on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in December. New England is missing two starters on the left side of their offensive line with left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson injured and out for tonight’s game. Against the suspect Bengals defense (playing without pass rush extraordinaire Trey Hendrickson), quarterback Drake Maye was pressured on 43.6% of his dropbacks. The Patriots have been the beneficiaries of one of the easiest schedules in the league so far this season. They have only beaten three teams with a winning record (and just one team with a winning percentage of .667 or higher. Six of their other victories are against teams with a combined winning record of 17-55 with four of those opponents with a winning percentage of .250 or less. Their two losses were against Las Vegas (!) and Pittsburgh — and neither of those teams have a winning percentage over .500. Despite the soft slate of opponents, they have still had to eke out six of their eight games decided by one scoring possession — and four of those wins were against teams with losing records. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams from the NFC. And while the Giants are surrendering 27.8 Points-Per-Game, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams who are giving up 24 or more PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: NFL teams that have won eight or more games in a row are currently on an 11-21-1 ATS in those last 33 circumstances. 20* NFL NY Giants-New England ESPN Special with the New York Giants (483) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (483) and the New England Patriots (484). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost six games in a row after their 34-27 loss in overtime at Detroit as a 14-point underdog last Sunday. New England (10-2) has won nine games in a row after their 26-20 victory at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After last week’s game, Kafka fired defensive coordinator Shane Bowens — and that move is probably addition by subtraction. The knock on Bowens is that he does not adjust his scheme to his players — and there is talent on the defensive roster. Outside linebacker coach Charlie Bullen takes over running the defense, and I am expecting an immediate improvement. Bowens deserves some of the blame for all the double-digit blown leads this team has suffered this season. In their last six games, they have lost four of them despite possessing the lead in the fourth quarter. The Giants finally get their bye week after tonight’s game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total prior to their bye week. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. New England is missing two starters on the left side of their offensive line with left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson injured and out for tonight’s game. Against the suspect Bengals defense (playing without pass rush extraordinaire Trey Hendrickson), quarterback Drake Maye was pressured on 43.6% of his dropbacks. The Patriots have quickly embraced the hard-nosed defensive mentality of first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. When playing at home at Gillette Stadium this season, they are holding their opponents to just 277.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 17.3 Points-Per-Game. New England has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored. The Giants are surrendering 27.8 PPG this season — but the Patriots have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are giving up 24 or more PPG. And in Vrabel’s 17 games in his head coaching career against teams who are not winning more than 25% of their games, his teams have played 11 of those games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: I appreciate that the Over is tempting given the state of the Giants' defense — but in the last 33 NFL games that featured a road team coming off a game on the road where both teams scored 24 or more points and they are now playing a team coming off a win on the road, those games finished Under the Total 26 times. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (483) and the New England Patriots (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-8) has lost six games in a row after their 16-13 loss in Madrid, Spain, as a 2.5-point underdog on November 16th. Denver (9-2) has won eight games in a row after their 22-19 upset win at home against Kansas City as a 4.5-point underdog back on November 16th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Second-year quarterback Bo Nix has been reliable in the fourth quarter — but before the final 15 minutes of the game, he ranks just 29th of the 32 qualifying quarterbacks in Pass Success Rate. Nix ranks 28th in the league as well, with 13% of his passes deemed inaccurate. On the road, the Broncos are generating only 304.5 total YPG, which is -30.8 net YPG below their season average. They are only outscoring their opponents by +0.8 net Points-Per-Game when playing away from home — and they are getting outgained by -50.3 net YPG in those four games. Denver has a 7-2 record in games decided by one-scoring possession — and they have won six straight games decided by eight points or less. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 13 games on the road. Washington’s defense played much cleaner last week after head coach Dan Quinn took over calling the plays on defense. They held the Dolphins to only 311 total yards. I’m not expecting this defense to suddenly become the 1985 Chicago Bears, but I do think the bad mistakes will diminish and the play-calling will be better from the former Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator with Seattle under Pete Carroll. Quinn’s teams in his head coaching career, going back to his first stint with Atlanta, have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games at home as an underdog. The Commanders have also covered the point spread in 9 of their 14 games at home since Quinn became their head coach. 

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos are just 11-19-2 ATS in their last 32 games played in prime-time — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 appearances on Sunday Night Football. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Washington Commanders (482). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-2) has won eight games in a row after their 22-19 upset win at home against Kansas City as a 4.5-point underdog back on November 16th. Washington (3-8) has lost six games in a row after their 16-13 loss in Madrid, Spain, as a 2.5-point underdog on November 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos held the Chiefs to just 311 total yards last week — and now their defense gets its superstar cornerback Patrick Surtain II back from injury. They are holding their opponents to just 274.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.5 Points-Per-Game. Their pass rush is going to get after the Commanders’ quarterback Marcus Mariota — they rank fourth in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate. Denver has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Under is also 12-4-1 in their last 17 games coming off their bye week. On the other side of the ball, second-year quarterback Bo Nix has been reliable in the fourth quarter — but before the final 15 minutes of the game, he ranks just 29th of the 32 qualifying quarterbacks in Pass Success Rate. Nix ranks 28th in the league as well, with 13% of his passes deemed inaccurate. On the road, the Broncos are generating only 304.5 total YPG, which is -30.8 net YPG below their season average. Denver has played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November. The Broncos have also played 19 of their last 25 games in prime-time Under the Total. Washington’s defense played much cleaner last week after head coach Dan Quinn took over calling the plays on defense. They held the Dolphins to only 311 total yards. I’m not expecting this defense to suddenly become the 1985 Chicago Bears, but I do think the bad mistakes will diminish and the play-calling will be better from the former Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator with Seattle under Pete Carroll. Quinn’s teams in his head coaching career, going back to his first stint with Atlanta, have played 13 of their 21  games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Commanders endured a -2 net turnover margin against Miami — and Quinn’s teams have played 12 of their 19 games Under the Total after a game where his team posted a -2 or worse net turnover margin. His teams have played 6 of their 9 games at home Under the Total as an underdog. And in his 19 games as a head coach against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher, 12 of those games finished Under the Total. The Washington has only scored 14.0 PPG in their last three games. Marcus Mariota started three of those four games (with Washington scoring an identical 14.0 PPG), including the last two contests — and he will be under center again tonight with Jayden Daniels still recovering from his left elbow injury. 

FINAL TAKE: This is a relatively uncommon instance when both teams are coming off their bye week. In those 197 circumstances, the Under is 119-75-3. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Washington Commanders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (477) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (478). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-19 upset loss at Houston as a 5.5-point favorite back on November 20th. Pittsburgh (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-28 loss at Chicago as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills only managed 14 first downs and just 326 total yards of offense last week against the Texans. One of their touchdowns came from a 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Buffalo is a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when it comes to their offensive home/road splits. They are scoring 32.5 Points-Per-Game at home while scoring at least 28 points in five of those six contests and over 40 points twice. But on the road, they are only scoring 23.2 PPG — and they have failed to score more than 19 points in three of their last four games away from home. To make things even worse this afternoon, quarterback Josh Allen will be without his two outstanding tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, due to a concussion and a shoulder injury, respectively. Tight end Dalton Kinkaid is also out with an injury. The Bills have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And in their last 12 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have played 8 of these games Under the Total. Pittsburgh gets Aaron Rodgers back under center after missing last week’s game with a wrist injury. Big deal, as Check Down Charlie is overseeing a water pistol offense that is generating only 292.2 total YPG — and that number only improves by +0.2 net YPG when playing at home. Even if Rodgers was willing to hurt his stat line by throwing an interception downfield, the Steelers lack a reliable vertical threat. Instead, Pittsburgh is relying on a horizontal scheme where the goal is to get the ball into their array of tight ends or wide receiver D.J. Metcalf and hope for yards after the catch. Defenses are not threatened as Pittsburgh has not generated more than 202 passing yards in four of their last five games (too bad they cannot always play the Cincinnati defense). The Steelers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Bills are scoring 28.3 PPG overall this season, Pittsburgh has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against fellow AFC rivals — and the Steelers have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against AFC foes. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (477) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (470) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (469). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-7) has won three of their last four games after their 16-13 victory in overtime against Washington as a 2.5-point favorite back on November 16th. New Orleans (2-9) has lost five of their last six contests after their 24-10 upset loss at home against Atlanta as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: This Miami team was presumed left for dead after general manager Chris Grier was fired on October 31st after a 26-8 loss to Baltimore. That loss dropped the Dolphins to 2-7 on the season — and it is assumed that head coach Mike McDaniels will be one of the head coaches fired on black Monday the day after the regular season ends. Certainly McDaniels has looked like a defeated man as he avoids eye contact with reporters in press conferences. Yet a funny thing has happened along the way of this fait accompli: McDaniels has continued to coach his football team — and they appear to have rallied behind him despite their slim prospects of the playoffs. Miami has won three of their last four games — and they are getting it done by emphasizing their running game. The Dolphins have generated 148.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Running back De’Von Achane has taken his game to another level in his last two contests by generating 294 rushing yards on a 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. Including his 11 receptions in the passing game in the last two games, he is averaging 27 touches per game and 195 yards from scrimmage per game in these last two contests. Rookie running back Ollie Gordon II got more involved in their last game as well, with nine carries for 45 yards. Now, with the Dolphins coming off their bye, look for more sophisticated run concepts from McDaniels, who may be auditioning for an offensive coordinator job now. Remember, he was the run-game coordinator for Kyle Shanahan for the San Francisco 49ers before getting the Dolphins head coaching gig. The emphasis on running the football has produced residual benefits for their defense as they have held their last four opponents to just 16.0 Points-Per-Game. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after their bye week when taking on a fellow AFC East rival. And while the Dolphins have generated 7.0 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their two games since Grier was fired, they have covered the point spread in 5 games in a row after averaging 6.0 or more YPP in two straight games. Miami has covered the point spread in 25 of their 38 games at home with Tua Tagovailoa under center. They have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 50 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 55 games against teams with a losing record. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks 10 through 13, in a period where McDaniels seems to shine. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a fellow NFC South rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after losing three of their last four contests. The Saints may have the worst roster in the league, which was a direct result of general manager Mickey Loomis' continued attempts to game the salary cap and kick the can down the road. Well, judgment day is now upon this organization. New Orleans is now eating over $100 million in dead cap space just this season on players who are no longer on the roster, like the now-retired quarterback Derek Carr, wide receiver Michael Thomas (last relevant in 2019), traded cornerback Marshon Lattimore, and quarterback Jameis Winston. When adding bloated contracts to aging veterans past their prime, like running back Alvin Kamara and defensive end Cameron Jordan, there is over $120 million dedicated this season to sunk costs or deteriorating assets, representing over one-third of their overall player budget. Kamara is out for this game with an injury. Rookie head coach Kellen Moore has moved on to rookie quarterback Tyler Shough as his starting quarterback in their last three games. He shows some moxie, but he is not demonstrating that he has enough to be a starting quarterback in the league. His Passer Rating is 81.1 in his five appearances — and the Saints have scored only 37 combined points in his three starts. I preach patience when it comes to young quarterbacks, but Shough was a former backup to Justin Herbert at Oregon, the journeyman played seven mostly nondescript seasons in a collegiate career that endured three season-ending injuries. As a 25-year-old last year, a solid season at Louisville put him on the radar of NFL executives. I’m just not sure he ever put much in his resume. Maybe he still works out in the long run — but right now he is leading an offense that is scoring only 10.8 PPG in the last five games. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And while the Saints are getting outscored by -9.9 PPG (and -13.8 PPG when on the road), the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. I have criticized McDaniels' teams at Miami as simply flat-track bullies. Well, let’s not forget that in this is a nice opportunity for them. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (470) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (384) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (383). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (9-2) has won three games in a row after their 17-6 victory against Missouri as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (7-4) has won two games in a row after their 13-10 victory against Western Kentucky as a 24.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma is in a strange spot in the college football playoff race — they are probably on the outside looking in with losses against a three-loss Texas team and Ole Miss. But that probably removes the pressure that this team faces in this final regular season game at home. Instead, they can attempt to put up some style points — and, heck, maybe their victory against Michigan and Alabama will look better by the end of the day, especially if they put up a big number against this reeling Tigers team. So, I like the situational spot for Oklahoma. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Brent Venables has assembled one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank third in the nation in Opponent Expected Points Allowed per Play and lead the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Against the run, Oklahoma ranks second in the nation in Opponent EPA per Rush and leads the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Against the pass, they rank 13th in both Opponent EPA per Dropback and Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. At home, they are holding their guests to just 265.5. total Yards-Per-Game and 12.2. Points-Per-Game. The offensive numbers are not as good, but quarterback John Mateer has been playing through injuries in the back half of the season. He is making strides every week. Against the Tigers, he threw two touchdown passes without an interception and added 60 yards on the ground on 18 carries. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home in November. LSU only gained 328 yards last week against the Hilltoppers despite controlling the time of possession for 35:54 minutes in that game. Sophomore quarterback Michael Van Buren, Jr. was under center in that game, given the abdominal injury to Grant Nussmeier — he completed 25 of 42 passes for just 202 yards with a touchdown pass and an interception. The Sooners present a much bigger challenge than the Western Kentucky defense did last week — and Nussmeier is not expected to play. This is a team in flux since head coach Brian Kelly was let go last month. Running backs coach (and former UTSA head coach) Frank Wilson is serving as the interim head coach — but everyone is waiting with bated breath regarding Lane Kiffin’s future head coaching plans, which he has said he will not make clear today. Who knows if the administration has already decided to bypass playing in a bowl game under these circumstances — this could be their lame duck last game of the season. The vibes are not the best. LSU’s offense only generates 22.6 PPG — and they are scoring -7.1 PPG below their season defensive average even before Van Buren took over the offense. On the road, the Tigers are only generating 292.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.3 PPG. They are getting outscored by -4.0 net PPG on the road while getting outgained by -86.2 net YPG in those contests. Their offense ranks 107th in EPA per Play and 109th in Success Rate. The problem was that Nussmeier might have been their best player on that side of the ball. LSU ranks 120th in EPA per Rush and 129th in Rush Success Rate. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. 

FINAL TAKE: The Sooners will have a little extra motivation to avenge a 37-17 loss at LSU as a 6-point underdog last year on November 30th. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher, including six of those seven games played on the road. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (384) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (417) and the Missouri State Bears (418). THE SITUATION: Louisiana State (6-5) snapped their two game losing streak with a 34-28 victory in overtime in a pick ‘em contest last Saturday. Missouri State (7-4) saw their five-game winning streak end in a 41-34 loss at Kennesaw State as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Louisiana Tech has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when on the road after a straight-up win. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against the Flames — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Once again, the strength of this team under fourth-year head coach Sonny Cumbie is their defense despite him being an offensive coach and former protege under Mike Leach. After ranking 114th and 117th in the nation by giving up 33.4 PPG and 418.2 YPG two years ago, they gave up only 308.4 total YPG, which resulted in 21.0 PPG, ranking 12th and 26th in the FBS. This year’s numbers are not quite as good as they are giving up 372.9 total YPG — but they are limiting their opponents to just 20.5 PPG. They rank 44th in the nation in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play and 28th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They rank in the top 49 in the FBS in both those metrics when it comes to slowing down the pass — and they rank 12th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held four of their opponents to no more than 14 points. But Cumbie still needs to fix his side of the ball. The former TCU and Texas Tech offensive coordinators’ Air Raid attack only generated 332.9 total YPG and 20.9 PPG, ranking 111th and 118th in the FBS last season. This year, Louisiana Tech has been a little better by generating 354.5 total YPG which has resulted in the 26.4 PPG. But most of that production took place at home. On the road, they are averaging only 238.2 total YPG which has resulted in just 14.2 PPG. They rank 100th in EPA per Play and 108th in Success Rate. The season-ending knee injury to sophomore quarterback Blake Baker did not help matters. Junior college transfer Try Kukuk was under center last week. The dual-threat ran the ball 19 times for 143 yards but he is limited in the passing game after throwing for only 118 yards on 20 attempts. The Bulldogs rank 123rd in EPA per Dropback and 96th in Pass Success Rate which is a shame since stopping the pass is the weakness of the Bears defense. Louisiana Tech has played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Missouri State has failed to score more than 22 points in six of their games this season in their inaugural season in the FBS and Conference USA. Their offense ranks 70th in EPA per Play and 91st in Success Rate. They are going to struggle to run the ball since they rank 110th in EPA per Rush and 124th in Rushing Success Rate. They are going to try to pass the ball with seventh-year senior Jacob Clark — but that plays into the strength of the Bulldogs’ defense. On the other side of the ball, the Bears have held their opponents to no more than 21 points in six games. At home, they are holding their guests to 346.6 total YPG which is resulting in 22.0 PPG. Missouri State has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored. And in their 7 games against fellow Conference USA rivals, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: In the last 91 games between Conference USA rivals with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range, the Under is 56-34-1. The Bulldogs have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (417) and the Missouri State Bears (418). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (330) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (329). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (9-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-28 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Georgia (10-1) has won seven games in a row after their 35-3 victory at home against Charlotte as a 42.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech was trailing the Panthers by a 28-14 score, but was driving to score a touchdown to make it a one-possession game in the third quarter. But senior quarterback Haynes King made a costly mistake by throwing an interception at the goal line that was returned for a touchdown and represented a 14-point swing in the game. After starting the season with eight straight victories, losses at NC State and then last week to Pittsburgh mean that the Yellow Jackets need some help to reach the ACC championship game. But pulling off an upset against the Bulldogs would certainly help a lot in making the case that Georgia Tech should make the college football playoff. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing 37 or more points. And while Georgia Tech suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Panthers, they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. King makes the Yellow Jackets dangerous in this game — he is completing 71.8% of his passes and leads an offense that ranks in the top 15 in the FBS in both Expected Points Added per Dropback and Pass Success rate. This is not the Georgia defense we are used to seeing. While they are very good at stopping the run, they rank just 78th in Opponent EPA per Dropback. Their secondary is mediocre, ranking just 56th in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage grading scale. But the biggest problem is their pass rush, which PFF grades out as the 120th worst in the nation. When King has operated in a clean pocket this season, he has passed for almost 2000 yards with a 9.2 Yards-Per-Attempt average — and he has 11 Big Time Throws and zero Turnover Worthy Plays when not facing pressure. The Georgia Tech defense is not great and the Bulldogs do generate 431.0 Yards-Per-Game — but the Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 9 straight games against teams who average 425 or more YPG. Georgia is in a strange spot right now. They need either Texas A&M or Alabama to lose to then earn the right to play in the SEC championship game. They are in a good position to earn one of the top four seeds in the college football playoffs and a bye in the first round. But if the Bulldogs get upset this afternoon and then lose in the SEC championship game, are we sure they still make the playoffs? This game can only hurt their cause. As it is, Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in the last three meetings between these two teams — and the last two games have been decided by eight points or less. King almost led Georgia Tech to an upset victory last year as a 17.5-point underdog before Georgia survived in double-overtime by a 44-42 score. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning 75% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (330) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (314) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (313). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 24-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (8-3) has won four games in a row after their 31-28 win against Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The Bears beat the Steelers despite getting outgained by -17 net yards. It was also Mason Rudolph under center for Pittsburgh with Aaron Rodgers out with an injury for that game. Chicago has won eight of their last nine games — but they are just getting by a slew of teams that are not very good. Those eight victories were against: a now 6-5-1 Dallas team before they improved their defense at the trade deadline; the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders; the 3-8 Washington Commanders; the 2-9 New Orleans Saints; the 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals when quarterback Joe Burrow was still out; the 2-10 New York Giants; the 4-7 Minnesota Vikings; the 6-5 Steelers without Rodgers. According to the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at DVOA), this is the worst 8-3 team in the history of the NFL, at least as far back as their statistics go. Despite the soft schedule, they are still getting outscored by -0.2 net Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by just +7.0 net Yards-Per-Game. They have a 6-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession — and all four of their games during their recent winning streak were decided by five points or less and just 14 total points. Their +16 net turnover margin is helping them pull out these close games — but turnover margin is a fickle dance partner. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. The Bears reached 31 points last week despite only gaining 328 total yards. Now they go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -6.0 PPG and outgained by -8.8 net YPG. Chicago remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. They are also 12-24-1 ATS in their last 37 games played on an early week before a Sunday. Philadelphia has their issues — and the 63 rushing yards they gained last week from 18 carries were the fewest in they have gained under head coach Nick Sirianni in the 82 games they have played with him leading the charge when they ran the ball at least 18 times. But what this team is not going to do with Jalen Hurts under center is give the ball away to the Bears. The Eagles did turn the ball over twice last week en route to blowing their 21-0 lead against the Cowboys — but they have only turned the ball over four other times all season. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 straight games after playing a fellow NFC East rival. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games since Sirianni took over as their head coach. Their defense is only giving up 15.0 PPG in their last four games, with that side of the ball even better after acquiring linebacker Jaelan Phillips from Miami and cornerback Michael Carter from the New York Jets — and that side of the ball is healthy again after dealing with some injuries. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 17 of their 21 home games under Sirianni when favored by up to seven points— and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games at home when favored by single digits with Sirianni. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played in November. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games against fellow NFC rivals, including eight of those 12 games played at home. 

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record, including five of those six games when playing at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games, including four of those five games played at home. Remember, Philadelphia just beat the Detroit team two weeks ago that handed the Bears a 31-point loss earlier in the season. Yes, I think Caleb Williams and this Chicago team are better now than they were in September — but the Super Bowl champs are a battle-tested group, and Chicago has been the benefactor of an easy schedule where they have skated by. 25* National Football League Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (314) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (309) and the Baltimore Ravens (310). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (3-8) has lost four games in a row after their 26-20 loss against the New England Patriots on Sunday. Baltimore (6-5) has won five games in a row after their 23-10 win against the New York Jets as a 14-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Baltimore’s defensive problems, which they experienced earlier in the season, are a thing of the past. Their defense was ravaged by injuries early on — but that unit is healthy again. Head coach John Harbaugh also moved safety Kyle Hamilton’s position on the field once again this season to jumpstart that unit. Last year, the key move was moving Hamilton to a traditional free safety role that transformed their defense in the second half of the season. This year, the Ravens moved Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage, where he could cover slot receivers, defend the run, or rush the passer. Drafting Georgia safety Malaki Starks and the midseason trade this year for Chargers’ safety Aldhi Gilman gave them the luxury to reposition Hamilton. Baltimore held the Jets to just 282 yards last week. In their last six games, the Ravens are holding their opponents to just 14.0 Points-Per-Game — and none of those six opponents have scored more than 19 points against them. On the other side of the ball, it is clear that quarterback Lamar Jackson is not at full strength, playing through injuries. He only rushed for 10 yards last week. Against this terrible Bengals defense, it should be the Derrick Henry Show — and that will burn time off the clock. He has averaged 92.3 Rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last six games with a 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry average. Baltimore has played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total in the second half of the season under head coach John Harbaugh against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Cincinnati gets Joe Burrow back at quarterback tonight — but he may have some rust to shake off after not playing since Week Two. Recovering from his toe surgery may also limit his mobility in the pocket, which is a critical part of his game since he plays behind a subpar offensive line. Burrow will not have wide receiver Tee Higgins, who is still in the concussion protocol — and that will make it easier for the Ravens to double-team wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals have played 12 of their last 12 games Under the Total with Zac Taylor as their head coach after losing two or more games in a row. And in their last 7 games away from the field turf at their home at Paycor Stadium when they are playing on grass, Cincinnati has played 5 of those games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road against fellow AFC North rivals. And while this is just the fifth time since Taylor took over as their head coach when they were playing on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, 3 of those previous games 4 finished Under the Total. 10* NFL Thursday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (309) and the Baltimore Ravens (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (310) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (309). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-5) has won five games in a row after their 23-10 win against the New York Jets as a 14-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (3-8) has lost four games in a row after their 26-20 loss against the New England Patriots on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore’s defensive problems, which they experienced earlier in the season, are a thing of the past. Their defense was ravaged by injuries early on — but that unit is healthy again. Head coach John Harbaugh also moved safety Kyle Hamilton’s position on the field once again this season to jumpstart that unit. Last year, the key move was moving Hamilton to a traditional free safety role that transformed their defense in the second half of the season. This year, the Ravens moved Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage, where he could cover slot receivers, defend the run, or rush the passer. Drafting Georgia safety Malaki Starks and the midseason trade this year for Chargers’ safety Aldhi Gilman gave them the luxury to reposition Hamilton. Baltimore held the Jets to just 282 yards last week. In their last six games, the Ravens are holding their opponents to just 14.0 Points-Per-Game — and none of those six opponents have scored more than 19 points against them. On the other side of the ball, it is clear that quarterback Lamar Jackson is not at full strength, playing through injuries. He only rushed for 10 yards last week. But the Baltimore offense should be seeing better results. They have averaged an expected 27 PPG in their last four contests — and their expected points against Miami, Minnesota, and Cleveland were 30, 32.5, and 26. Against this terrible Bengals defense, it should be the Derrick Henry Show. He has averaged 92.3 Rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last six games with a 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry average. Cincinnati allows opposing rushers to average 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry and 156.0 rushing YPG — and they have surrendered 147 or more rushing yards in six of their 11 games. Baltimore averages 4.9 YPC — and the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who generate 4.5 or more YPC. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams that allow 4.5 or more YPC. Cincinnati gives up 6.4 Yards-Per-Play — and Baltimore has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams who are giving up 5.65 or more YPP. The temperature in Baltimore tonight will drop into the low-30s — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in all six of their games at home with Jackson under center when the temperature is 35 degrees or less, with an average winning margin of +19.7 PPG. Baltimore has also won all five of Jackson’s starts at home on a short week before Sunday with an average winning margin of +14.0 PPG. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati gets Joe Burrow back at quarterback tonight — but he may have some rust to shake off after not playing since Week Two. Recovering from his toe surgery may also limit his mobility in the pocket, which is a critical part of his game since he plays behind a subpar offensive line. Burrow will not have wide receiver Tee Higgins, who is still in the concussion protocol — and that will make it easier for the Ravens to double-team wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals will also be without defensive end Trey Hendrickson, who is out with a hip injury. This defense cannot afford to be without their best player. As it is, Cincinnati ranks last in the league in both Opponent Expected Points Added per Play and Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The Bengals' pass defense gives up 259.8 passing YPG with opposing quarterbacks completing 66.8% of their passes. Jackson should be able to pick apart this group through play-action passes without needing to rely on his legs. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road against fellow AFC rivals. 

FINAL TAKE: With Burrow healthy and under center, Cincinnati has still failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against fellow AFC North rivals — and they fail to cover the point spread by -3.0 PPG in those contests. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Bengals. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (310) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (265) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (266). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-5) has won two of their last three games after their 30-27 upset victory in overtime at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (7-4) has won two of their last three contests after their 41-22 win at Arizona as a 3.5-favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Panthers’ quarterback Bryce Young comes off his best game as a professional after completing 31 of 45 passes for 448 yards, along with three touchdown passes. He has led Carolina to scoring 30 points three times this season. Head coach Dave Canales' move to make this offense run-first behind Rico Dowdle has made things easier on his third-year quarterback — and rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan has been as good as advertised. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win, including 12 of those 15 games played at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win on the road. The 49ers' defense is struggling. They rank 25th in Opponent EPA per Play and 29th in Opponent EPA per Dropback. To compound matters now, defensive end Nick Bosa remains out indefinitely with a knee injury, and four-time All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner is out with an ankle injury. They gave up 488 yards to the Cardinals last week. Since Week Seven, they rank 30th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and Opponent EPA per Play — only Washington and Cincinnati rank worse if you want to know the company this defense is not keeping. In the last six weeks, their defense ranks 30th in Opponent EPA per Dropback. Since losing Bosa to injury in late September, the Niners are last in Pressure Rate on the quarterback -- and they are only registering sacks in 2.3% of their opponent's dropbacks since Bosa went down. Overall, San Francisco also ranks last in Opponent Adjusted Line Yards — so Dowdle is poised to have a big day. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games played at home.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL  Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (265) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-5) has won two of their last three games after their 30-27 upset victory in overtime at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (7-4) has won two of their last three contests after their 41-22 win at Arizona as a 3.5-favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be a high-scoring game given two subpar defenses dealing with injuries. For the Panthers, their linebacker room is a mess, given the season-ending injury to edge rusher Patrick Jones II, along with Trevion Wallace and Christian Rozeboom being out with hip injuries. Facing head coach Kyle Shanahan calling plays is the wrong time to be down three linebackers. Panthers’ quarterback Bryce Young comes off his best game as a professional after completing 31 of 45 passes for 448 yards, along with three touchdown passes. He has led Carolina to scoring 30 points three times this season. Head coach Dave Canales' move to make this offense run-first behind Rico Dowdle has made things easier on his third-year quarterback — and rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan has been as good as advertised. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Niners are surrendering 352.9 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and Carolina has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams that are surrendering 350 or more YPG. The 49ers are also giving up 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and the Panthers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are giving up 5.65 or more YPP. On the other side of the ball, Carolina ranks 24th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play. They rank just 25th in Pass Rush Win Rate and 25th in Pressure Rate, which is a big reason why they rank 24th in Opponent EPA per Dropback. The Panthers have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total as an underdog. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total coming off a game against a fellow NFC West rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a divisional opponent. The 49ers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Injuries have held back the San Francisco offense — but they still rank third in EPA per Play since Week Seven. They are one of just two teams with a Success Rate over 50% on offense since Week Seven as well. Whether it is Mac Jones or now Brock Purdy again, the Niners lead the NFL in Pass Success Rate. But the defense is another matter. The 49ers rank 25th in Opponent EPA per Play and 29th in Opponent EPA per Dropback. To compound matters now, defensive end Nick Bosa remains out indefinitely with a knee injury, and four-time All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner is out with an ankle injury. They gave up 488 yards to the Cardinals last week. Since Week Seven, they rank 30th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and Opponent EPA per Play — only Washington and Cincinnati rank worse if you want to know the company this defense is not keeping. In the last six weeks, their defense ranks 30th in Opponent EPA per Dropback. Since losing Bosa to injury in late September, the Niners are last in Pressure Rate on the quarterback -- and they are only registering sacks in 2.3% of their opponent's dropbacks since Bosa went down. Overall, San Francisco also ranks last in Opponent Adjusted Line Yards — so Dowdle is poised to have a big day. The 49ers have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5-9.5 point range, including 8 of those 11 games played on the road. The 49ers have played 16 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total when laying -3 to -7 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263) and the Los Angeles Rams (264). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-32 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 21-19 victory at home against Seattle as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers surrendered 414 yards to the Bills last week — and it was even worse than that raw number suggests since Tampa Bay had their offense on the field for over 35 minutes in that game. Buffalo averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Play in that game. I was bullish on this Buccaneers defense in the preseason — but it was mostly predicated on getting a pass rush from free agent signee Haason Reddick. But Reddick has missed the last three games due to a knee injury and has only registered 1.5 sacks in his first seven games. Tampa Bay is just middle of the pack, ranking 14th in sack percentage. This team has been ravaged by injuries — and now the defense takes another major hit with cornerback Jamel Deal out with a hip injury. The Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game, including five of those seven games played on the road. But Baker Mayfield should keep his team competitive in this game — especially with some key players coming back on his side of the ball. Tampa Bay expects left tackle Tristan Wirfs and right tackle Luke Goedeke to return for this game. Wide receiver Chris Godwin will also be active again for this game, although he may be on a snap count. The Buccaneers have played 9 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as an underdog of seven points or less. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. And while they enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin against the Seahawks, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, since head coach Sean McVay took over as their head coach, they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win against a fellow NFC West rival. Their win against the Seahawks came on the heels of their 42-26 victory against San Francisco — and they have played all 5 of their games under McVay Over the Total after beating two straight division opponents in their last two contests. They had scored at least 34 points and averaged 37.0 PPG in a three-game stretch before dealing with the rugged Seattle defense. The Rams are generating 360.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 27.2 Points-Per-Game. At home, they are averaging +19.3 more net YPG than their season average. They suffered a tough injury on defense, with their versatile safety Quentin Lake going on the shelf with an elbow injury. 

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 60-75% of their games. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams winning 70% or more of their contests. 20* NFL Tampa Bay-LA Rams NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263) and the Los Angeles Rams (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be the Los Angeles Rams (264) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 21-19 victory at home against Seattle as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (6-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-32 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should continue to cruise tonight since they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. Head coach Sean McVay should have his team locked in for this challenge despite coming off two important divisional games. The Rams are 30-17-4 ATS in their 51 games under McVay following a game against a fellow NFC West rival — and they are 9-6-1 ATS after playing the Seahawks. They had scored at least 34 points and averaged 37.0 PPG in a three-game stretch before dealing with the rugged Seattle defense. The Rams are generating 360.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 27.2 Points-Per-Game. At home, they are averaging +19.3 more net YPG than their season average. The Buccaneers surrendered 414 yards to the Bills last week — and it was even worse than that raw number suggests since Tampa Bay had their offense on the field for over 35 minutes in that game. Buffalo averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Play in that game. I was bullish on this Buccaneers defense in the preseason — but it was mostly predicated on getting a pass rush from free agent signee Haason Reddick. But Reddick has missed the last three games due to a knee injury and has only registered 1.5 sacks in his first seven games. Tampa Bay is just middle of the pack, ranking 14th in sack percentage. This team has been ravaged by injuries — and now the defense takes another major hit with cornerback Jamel Deal out with a hip injury. Starting guard Ben Bredeson is also out for tonight’s game. It has just been a grueling schedule in their last seven games with a gauntlet that featured Philadelphia, at Seattle, San Francisco, at Detroit, then a break at New Orleans before taking New England, before their trip to Buffalo last week. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game, including failing to cover the point spread in five of those seven games played on the road. Quarterback Baker Mayfield’s play has declined in the last month, facing these opponents while playing through injuries. He has only averaged 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt in those games and has only run the ball five times. Mayfield’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of his 13 starts in prime-time — and his teams have lost eight of their games as underdogs of 3.5 or more points when playing at night. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games played in prime-time. Another interesting component to this game relates to the Rams having a season win total set at 9.5 in August. In Todd Bowles’ head coaching career, playing a team with a preseason win total at 9 or higher, his teams are just 9-18-1 ATS in those games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in seven of those nine games as an underdog.    

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Buccaneers. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (264) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (253) and the Kansas City Chiefs (254). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (8-2) has won five of their last six games after their 31-25 win in overtime against Atlanta as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-5) suffered their second-straight upset loss in a 22-19 loss at Denver as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: A new book regarding how to expose Colts’ quarterback Daniel Jones may have been written this month. He was tearing up the league in his first eight games, leading the best statistical offense in the NFL. His 109.5 Passer Rating in those first eight games was sixth-best of all qualifying quarterbacks. Yet in his last two games against Pittsburgh and then the Falcons last week, his Passer Rating plummeted to 76.5. Perhaps an unusually easy early schedule finally caught up to Jones. Five of his first seven victories this season were against teams that entered this week with a 10-31 record (not counting Tennessee twice). But it was probably the blueprint from the Steelers that has been the game changer to slow down Jones and this Colts’ offense when he threw three interceptions in a 27-20 loss. Against the Falcons, he threw another interception and fumbled the ball three times. In his last two games, Jones has fumbled the ball six times, with the defense recovering the ball three times. He has four interceptions. What Atlanta did last week was to blitz him on 46.2% of his dropbacks. That was the first time since Week Two that Jones got blitzed on at least 40% of his dropbacks. He had been posting a better Expected Points Added per Dropback rating of +0.12 under pressure before the Pittsburgh game, which is a rarity since it is only Josh Allen in 2020 or Patrick Mahomes in 2019 who registered a positive EPA mark per Dropback when under pressure. Credit Falcons’ head coach Raheem Morris for concluding that Jones was experiencing outlier numbers. Certainly, more tape on head coach Shane Steichen’s schemes and play-calling helped. Jones’ shaky ball security seems to be a direct result of the pressure, since five of his seven turnovers in the last two weeks were when he was experiencing pressure under center. The timing on his throws is off as well, which suggests the pressure is getting to him. Kansas City defense coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have studied these last two games closely. In Indianapolis’ two toughest road games this season, in Los Angeles against the Chargers and in Pittsburgh, they have scored only 20 points in both games. They are generating -30.1 net Yards-Per-Game when playing on the road. Jones has played 33 of his 48 starts Under the Total as an underdog. The Colts have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a game where they scored at least 30 points. On the other side of the ball, I am not surprised that defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has had an immediate positive impact. Indianapolis is holding their opponents to just 327.6 total YPG, which has resulted in just 20.6 PPG. Trading for cornerback Sauce Gardner makes this unit even better. The Chiefs are scoring 25.4 PPG — and the Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against opponents who are scoring 24 or more PPG. And while the Chiefs are generating 5.9 Yards-Per-Play, Indy has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP. Kansas City only managed 311 total yards last week against the Broncos. Their offense misses running back Isiah Pacheco, who returned to practice this week, recovering from a knee injury, but will not be active for this game. The Chiefs have only scored 40 combined points in their last two games. Kansas City has played 5 straight home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after suffering an upset loss. Additionally, they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They return home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after playing their previous two games on the road. At home, the Chiefs are holding their guests to 245.6 total YPG, which is resulting in 12.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total as a favorite. And while the Colts are scoring 32.1 PPG, the Chiefs have played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total since head coach Andy Reid took over against teams who are scoring 27 or more PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. Kansas City has played 6 straight Unders when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total since 2022 with Mahomes under center with the Total set at 50 or higher, including six straight Unders in a row. The Colts have played just three games with Steichen as their head coach, with the Total set at 50 or higher — and all 3 of those games finished Under the Total. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (253) and the Kansas City Chiefs (254). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the BYU Cougars (135) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (136). THE SITUATION: BYU (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season against Texas Tech two weeks ago with a 44-13 victory against TCU as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (7-3) has lost two games in a row after their 30-24 upset loss at home against Arizona as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cougars were very efficient in generating 447 yards against the Horned Frogs last week. They converted 8 of their 15 third and fourth down plays while scoring on all five of their trips inside the Red Zone. BYU ranks in the top ten in the nation in Quality Drives. They have scored at least 33 points in six of their ten games. The Cougars have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win, including five of those seven games on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 37 or more points. Led by freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, BYU has a balanced offense that ranks in the top 43 or better in the nation in Expected Points Added per Rush and EPA per Pass, along with ranking in the top 36 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. This offense is very effective in executing inside run zone concepts in 11 or 12 formations that can still effectively pass the ball with either three wide receivers or two tight ends on the field. Bachmeier completed 23 of 33 passes for 296 yards with a touchdown last week, and he added 59 rushing yards with another touchdown on the ground. The Cougars are going to score their share of points against a suspect Bearcats defense. Cincinnati ranks 116th in Opponent EPA per Play and 110th in Opponent Success Rate — and their defense struggles against both the rush and the pass. They rank 101st in Opponent EPA per Rush and 116th  in Opponent Rush Success. They also rank 98th in Opponent EPA per Dropback and 83rd in Opponent Pass Success Rate. BYU is going to be able to establish the run pretty easily, which will set up Bachmeier punishing them with his arm. The Bearcats rank outside the top 110 in the FBS in Defensive Line Yards Allowed and Stuff Rate — and they allow their opponents a Success Rate of 62% when operating inside zone run schemes. The Cougars have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road against fellow Big 12 rivals. Cincinnati has surrendered 75 combined points in their last two games — and they have given up at least 30 points in seven of their games. The Wildcats generated 475 yards against them. But they have also scored at least 37 points in four of their last seven games. They get back senior running back Evan Pryor and junior wide receiver Caleb Goode for this game, which should be a shot in the arm for this offense that missed them when they were both out with injuries. This Bearcats offense does not usually beat themselves as they rank fourth in the nation in Avoiding Momentum Killing Plays. They are scoring 4.9 points per trip inside their opponents' 40-yard line. They also play at a quick pace by averaging only 24.5 seconds per play. At home, they are generating 424.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 37.8 Points-Per-Game. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby leads a passing attack that ranks 12th in the nation in EPA per Dropback. But where Cincinnati should find immediate success with their ground game that ranks 6th in EPA per Rush and 4th in Rushing Success Rate. Stopping the run is where the Cougars are vulnerable — they rank 73rd in Opponent EPA per Rush and 71st in Opponent Rushing Success Rate. On the road, BYU is surrendering 388.2 total YPG. The Cougars generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Bearcats have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Additionally, they have played all 3 of their games this season Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. 

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield has seen his teams play 9 of their 13 home games Over the Total as an underdog of up to seven points in his head coaching career. BYU has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range, including five of those six games played on the road. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the BYU Cougars (135) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (136). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (182) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (181). THE SITUATION: Oregon (9-1) has won four games in a row after their 42-13 win against Minnesota as a 27-point favorite last Friday. USC (8-2) has won three games in a row after a 26-21 victory against Iowa as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans escaped their game with the Hawkeyes despite a post-game win expectancy of just 45%. They remain alive for the College Football Playoff — but this is a must-win game, as is their traditional showdown with UCLA next week. Responding positively to pressure has not been a strength of this football team under fourth-year head coach Lincoln Riley (or under any USC head coach since Pete Carroll) — and consistency has been a particular problem since Riley took over. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning here or more games in a row. USC comes into this game at less than full strength. Junior running back Waymond Jordan remains out — but freshmen King Miller has been a revelation. But the loss of strong safety Bishop Fitzgerald from an injury last week, which will keep him out, really hurts. The Trojans' defense is improved from last year, but that unit remains below average when it comes to potential playoff teams. Their defense ranks 50th in Opponent Expected Points per Play and 79th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They particularly struggle in stopping the run, where they rank 101st in Opponent EPA per Rush and 115th in Opponent Rush Success Rate — and that plays right into Oregon’s strength on offense, detailed below. The hope is that the explosive USC offense that generates 490.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 38.2 Points-Per-Game which simply puts more points on the scoreboard — but ranking 125th in starting field position does them no favors against the best defense they have played all season. The Trojans' offense is much better at home, where they are scoring 45 PPG — but on the road, that mark drops by almost 17 PPG to a 27.5 PPG mark. Their defense also surrenders -46.5 net YPG versus their season average when on the road. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. And while they seem most comfortable playing on the Bermuda grass at home in the LA Coliseum, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played on field turf like what they will experience at Autzen Stadium. Oregon should continue to build off their momentum in this contest. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home after a victory by 28 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 18 of their 27 games since Dan Lanning took over as their head coach after winning three or more games in a row. Oregon boasts one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank second in the FBS by holding their opponents to 3.99 Yards-Per-Play — and they rank 8th in Opponent EPA per Play. USC wants to throw the ball with quarterback Jayden Maiava — but the Ducks lead the nation by limiting their opponents to just 4.9 passing Yards-Per-Attempt. They also rank second in Opponent EPA per Dropback and sixth in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Oregon only gives up 127.3 passing YPG — and the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who are not giving up more than 150 passing YPG. And while the Ducks are holding their opponents to only 235.4 total YPG this season, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are not giving up more than 350 YPG. On the other side of the ball, it all starts with Oregon’s ground game with three capable running backs that have them leading the nation in Rushing Success Rate and 11th in EPA per Rush. Now they face a Trojans' defense that just let Iowa run the ball 33 times for 183 rushing yards while enjoying a success rate of 67% on those rushes. At home, the Ducks are outgaining their opponents by +252.6 net YPG and outscoring them by +29.8 PPG. Take your pick on whether their 42.0 PPG/473.3 YPG on offense or their 12.2 PPG/220.7 YPG on defense at home is gaudier. Oregon has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected higher-scoring games with the total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 

FINAL TAKE: It is a testament to fourth-year head coach Dan Lanning that his football team’s only losses in the last two seasons were either to the eventual national champion or a team that reached the championship game (two losses to Washington two seasons ago) — and their lone loss this season was against Indiana that is one of the three remaining unbeaten teams in college football. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games — and the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams winning 75% or more of their contests. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (182) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (116) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (115). THE SITUATION:  FSU (4-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-14 win against Virginia Tech as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. NC State (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 41-7 loss at Miami (FL) as a 14.5-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: FSU looks good on the laptops, which is why the betting public has pushed them up to laying close to a touchdown on the road in this contest. A few things about those metrics. While they may be generating 6.8 Yards-Play this season, that production drops a full yard to 5.8 YPP when on the road — more on the disparate home/road splits below. Second, they are only generating 4.8 YPP in their three games this month as they embark on another fade in performance under head coach Mike Norvell. Bettors still remember their 14-point win at home against Alabama to begin the season (against a Kalen DeBoer squad that has its own home/road split issues). They then got to pad their stats against East Texas A&M and Kent State before embarking in conference play, where they promptly lost four games in a row. It is telling that FSU has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their 48 games under Norvell after the first month of the season. Norvell is a fugazi — and he has made this program completely in his image. He is completely dependent on living - and dying — on the transfer portal. Last year, he mostly struck out — most notably with quarterback D.J. Uigalelei. He is failing with high school recruiting — and the program under his leadership is not developing talent. There have been zero high school recruits on offense who were later drafted into the NFL in his five seasons. There are two fundamental problems with the transfer portal for a program like Florida State that fancies itself as a top ten national program. First, the elite college players are not likely to leave the program they initially chose to attend from high school because they are happy with their role and prospects at places like Ohio State or Georgia. And while the opportunity to poach talent from less prestigious programs is plentiful, there is a reason why these players were not recruited by the big boys. Second, it is difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture when the player turnover (and the inherent lack of loyalty from this approach) requires a reset from year to year. I certainly thought Florida State would be better this year after their collapse to 2-10 last year — but it is a roster dominated by new players from other programs. The coaching staff was overhauled despite them being the ones who were in charge during their 13-1 campaign two years ago. Just looking at the quarterback situation demonstrates the crapshoot Norvell is now in. He brought in senior Tommy Castellanos, who, on paper, seems like a great fit with new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The mobile quarterback was originally recruited by Malzahn at Central Florida. He later transferred to Boston College, where head coach Bill O’Brien still eventually benched him. Using the portal can certainly uncover hidden gems like Jared Key. But it is hard to bank on uncovering gem after gem. More often, assembling an island of misfit toys year after year leads to wild volatility, as last season demonstrated. So the misfit toys pulled off a big upset against the Crimson Tide — and they immediately bought the hype that they were poised to make the college football playoffs again. And then played Virginia to begin a four-game losing streak that culminated in a loss at Stanford. Stanford? Stanford! But here we go again, beating Wake Forest and the Hokies in between a loss at Clemson (but it’s so hard to win in Death Valley!) — and bettors are buying the hype again, at least for tonight, since they need this win to become bowl eligible. But because the only culture Norvell has established is as a frontrunner with zero resiliency when the going gets tough for the misfit toys, they are rarely consistent. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a fellow ACC rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game, including five of those six games played on the road. And the moment things begin to get tough, they fold — as demonstrated by Florida State’s 4-11 record in one-score games since Norvell took over this program — including an 0-4 mark this season. This team has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Now FSU goes on the road again, where they are winless in three games with an average losing margin of -9.7 Points-Per-Game. Castellanos is inconsistent. He is completing 63.0% of his passes with a 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. But in his three games on the road, he is only completing 53.4% of his passes with a 7.2 YPA, just two touchdown passes, and three interceptions. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against fellow ACC rivals. North Carolina State returns home after playing three of their last four games on the road. Yes, their lone victory during that stretch was their one game at home at Carter-Finley Stadium, where they upset Georgia Tech by a 48-36 score as a 4.5-point underdog. They also beat Virginia at home, 35-31. Their bad double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and the Hurricanes last week were all on the road. At home, the Wolfpack have a 4-1 record with an average winning margin of +13.4 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 game after a straight-up win against an ACC rival. There is no question that their defense has taken a step back since defensive coordinator Tony Gibson left to take the head coaching job at Marshall. But at least they are holding their guests to 23.4 PPG when playing at home. The biggest problem is their pass defense, which ranks 125th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. But their run defense is good — and they rank eighth in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. This matches up well with the Seminoles since it will likely put the pressure on Castellanos to beat them with his arm. FSU ranks 11th in Rushing Success Rate but only 58th in Passing Success Rate. Florida State’s defense is mediocre — they rank 69th in Opponent EPA per Play Allowed and 51st in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. NC State has a good quarterback, sophomore C.J. Bailey, who has thrown for over 2500 yards with 19 touchdowns. NC State ranks 19th in EPA per Dropback and 38th in Pass Success Rate. Bailey should have success against this FSU defense that ranks 65th in Opponent EPA per Dropback and 70th in Opponent Pass Success Rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored. The Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (116) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (112) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (111). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-5) has won three of their last four contests after their 16-13 win at Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (7-3) has won three of their last four games after their 44-32 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Buffalo averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Play last week in a game where quarterback Josh Allen registered six touchdowns. But tape gurus like Greg Cosell are on the record that he left too many plays on the field by missing open receivers. Part of the Bills’ inconsistency is that Allen too often fails to make the routine play look routine. Furthermore, the wide receiver room is a mess. Tight end Dalton Kinkaid, Curtis Samuel, and the recently signed Mecole Hardman are all out. Keon Coleman is inactive as he continues to be punished for missing a meeting last week. Khalil Shakir is questionable due to personal reasons. And while Buffalo scores 29.2 PPG, that number drops by -4.9 PPG to a 24.3 PPG clip when playing on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road against fellow AFC rivals. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road after a straight-up win at home. Houston has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a fellow AFC South rival, including five of those six games played at home. Their win against the Titans followed a touchdown victory against Jacksonville — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after back-to-back wins against division opponents. The Texans only managed 315 yards of offense last week — but they held the Titans to just 229 yards to pull out the win. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is once again out for tonight’s game as he remains in the concussion protocol. Davis Mills is a former starter in the league (for Houston) who has led this team to both wins against AFC South opponents. The game plan will still be to run the ball since that is the weakness of the Bills’ defense, which ranks 30th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN) — and Buffalo allows their opponents to generate 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. The Texans will run the ball, protect Mills from the Bills’ pass rush, and lean on their outstanding defense. The Texans have the best pass defense in the NFL, according to DVOA and Opponent EPA per Dropback Allowed. They also rank fifth in Opponent EPA per Rush Allowed. They are holding their opponents to 258.1 total YPG, which is resulting in 16.3 Points-Per-Game. 

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games at home as an underdog since DeMeco Ryans took over as their head coach — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams who are winning 60-75% range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (112) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (111). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (111) and the Houston Texans (112). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-3) has won three of their last four games after their 44-32 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (5-5) has won three of their last four contests after their 16-13 win at Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans only managed 315 yards of offense last week — but they held the Titans to just 229 yards to pull out the win. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is once again out for tonight’s game as he remains in the concussion protocol. Davis Mills is a capable backup — but don’t get too excited by his 283.0 passing Yards-Per-Game average the last two weeks. He benefited from facing mediocre Jacksonville and Tennessee defenses. He is a downgrade at the position. If he had enough snaps to qualify, he would rank 26th of the 34 qualifying NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per Dropback. For comparisons sake, Stroud ranks 12th in that metric. Mills will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. I have written about this previously — general manager Nick Caserio has not done a good job assembling talent at that position. Houston is one of only two teams in the league that have only rushed for one touchdown when inside their opponent’s five-yard line. What is even more damning about that statistic is that they are tied with New Orleans, which has only five attempts inside the five-yard line, while the Texans have had 13 tries at it. To compound matters, starting left guard Tytus Howard is questionable with an ankle and a concussion. Houston has played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total at home with a quarterback other than Stroud starting under center. The game plan will still be to run the ball since that is the weakness of the Bills’ defense, which ranks 30th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Buffalo allows their opponents to generate 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Texans have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who are surrendering 4.5 or more YPC. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against fellow AFC East rivals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Houston will run the ball, protect Mills from the Bills’ pass rush, and lean on their outstanding defense. The Texans have the best pass defense in the NFL, according to DVOA and Opponent EPA per Dropback Allowed. They also rank fifth in Opponent EPA per Rush Allowed. They are holding their opponents to 258.1 total YPG, which is resulting in 16.3 Points-Per-Game. The Texans have played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 17 of their 23 games Under the Total since DeMeco Ryans as their head coach against teams with a winning record. Buffalo averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Play last week in a game where quarterback Josh Allen registered six touchdowns. But tape gurus like Greg Cosell are on the record that he left too many plays on the field by missing open receivers. Part of the Bills’ inconsistency is that Allen too often fails to make the routine play look routine. Furthermore, the wide receiver room is a mess. Tight end Dalton Kinkaid, Curtis Samuel, and the recently signed Mecole Hardman are all out. Keon Coleman is inactive as he continues to be punished for missing a meeting last week. Khalil Shakir is questionable due to personal reasons. And while Buffalo scores 29.2 PPG, that number drops by -4.9 PPG to a 24.3 PPG clip when playing on the road. In Allen’s last 59 games on the road, 37 of those games finished Under the Total. The Bills have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 

FINAL TAKE: Home underdogs playing on Thursday Night Football have scored only 16.2 PPG in those last 31 contests. The Texans have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home, with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (111) and the Houston Texans (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (478) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (477). Las Vegas (2-7) has lost three games in a row after their 10-7 loss at Denver as an 8.5-point underdog on November 6th. Dallas (3-5-1) has lost two games in a row after their 27-17 upset loss at Arizona as a 3-point favorite back on November 3rd. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dallas offense has slowed down a bit after a fast start. They only gained 333 yards two weeks ago against the Cardinals — and they have scored just 41 combined points in their last two games. Playing the New York Giants, the New York Jets, and the Washington Commanders helps an offense put up gaudy numbers. It is telling that they are only scoring 23.7 Points-Per-Game in their other six games. On the road, the Cowboys are generating 350.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 24.4 PPG — and those numbers are -28.4 YPG and -4.8 PPG below their season average. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, including three in a row when playing on the road. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season when favored. Las Vegas comes off the mini-bye from playing on a Thursday the previous week. They only gained 188 yards in that game against the tough Denver defense — but their defense played very well by holding the Broncos to just 220 total yards. Led by pass rush extraordinaire Maxx Crosby, they have a solid defense that is holding their opponents to just 320.8 total YPG. The Raiders are better than their record suggests, as three of their losses have been by three points or less — and their last two games were losses by four combined points. Las Vegas covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. 

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been hit hard by injuries this season — but getting Brock Bowers back at tight end makes a huge difference for them since the offense is centered on his talents as a wide receiver. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last games at home against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (478) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.