At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (207) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (208) in the New Mexico Bowl. THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (8-5) looks to bounce-back from being upset in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game to Miami (OH) by a 26-21 score despite being a 5.5-point favorite. San Diego State (9-3) looks to build off their 13-3 upset victory BYU as a 4-point underdog on November 30th. The New Mexico Bowl takes place in Albuquerque.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Michigan was upset by the Red Hawks despite outgaining them by +83 net yards in that game. The Chippewas limited Miami (OH) to just 272 total yards in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Central Michigan has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team is led by MAC Coach of the Year, Jim McElwain, who is very familiar with Rocky Long’s coached-teams at San Diego State after his tenure in the Mountain West Conference as the head coach at Colorado State. Long deploys a tricky 3-3-5 defense that McElwain has spent many hours dissecting even before this bowl matchup was announced. This team has steadily improved this season after suffering a 1-10 record last season. Former Tennessee quarterback Quentin Dormady has completed 71% of his passes over his last three games and will not shrink under the scrutiny of this game given his previous starting experience in SEC play. Over their last three games, the Chippewas are averaging 467.3 total YPG while outgaining their opponents by +120 net YPG. This team has a stout defense that ranked 20th in the nation by allowing only 115.1 rushing YPG — and they rank 38th in the nation in total defense by giving up one y351.7 total YPG. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the MAC. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. And while the Aztecs surrendered 338 passing yards to the Cougars which is not a good sign for this game considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. San Diego State upset BYU despite being without their starting quarterback Ryan Agnew. While Agnew has recovered and will play in this game, he leads an anemic offense the did not score more than 20 points in five games this season. Don’t be surprised if Long uses this game to get his freshman QB Carson Baker more playing time after he started against BYU. This is an offense that is 119th in the nation by averaging just 19.0 PPG while also ranking 115th in the FBS by averaging only 329.3 total YPG. And over their last three games, the Aztecs are scoring only 13.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State was embarrassed last season in their bowl game against Ohio which ended in a 27-0 loss. But the Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in December. Expect Central Michigan to keep this game close. 10* CFB New Mexico Bowl ESPN Special with the Central Michigan Chippewas (207) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (7-7) has won four straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 38-17 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (9-5) has won three of their last four games with their 24-21 upset win at Tennessee last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans may be due for an emotional letdown on this short week after pulling off that big upset victory that was critical for their AFC South title aspirations. But Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after pulling off an upset victory over an AFC South foe. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Houston was outgained by the Titans by -58 net yards after surrendering 432 total yards. Defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed 27.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 423.7 total YPG which is -44.6 YPG worse than their season average that already ranked 28th in the league. This is not a good sign for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And while Houston has allowed their last two opponents to average 7.24 and 6.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6 YPP. The Texans are unreliable as a favorite considering that they are being outgained in yardage overall this season. They are also being outscored and outgained on the road while being outscored and outgained in their last three contests despite winning two of those games. Seven of Houston’s victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession — and they have four net close wins decided by one possession. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. They are also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in December. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. The Buccaneers are significantly undermanned at wide receiver for this game with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out for this game. But in head coach Bruce Arians I trust when it comes to devising an offensive game plan with a week to prepare. Expect a creative use of tight ends and running backs in the passing game. The under-appreciated aspect of this Bucs team is the continuing improved play of their defense that ranks tops in the NFL by allowing only 73.3 rushing YPG under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay is allowing only 21.0 PPG along with just 282.0 total YPG. This solid play on defense helps explain why the Bucs are outgaining their opponents by +50.0 net YPG this season. Of course, Winston’s turnovers tend to ruin the good work this team does in the yardage battle — but the Texans have only had three takeaways over their last five games. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when getting no more than 7 points as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. While quarterback Jameis Winston has not been in many games that had playoff implications, he does seem to relish the role of playing the spoiler. Expect a close game where Tampa Bay has a late chance to pull the upset. 10* NFL Houston-Tampa Bay NFL Network Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (203) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (204) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kent State (6-6) has won three games in a row with their 34-26 upset win at Eastern Michigan as a 4-point underdog on November 29th. Utah State (7-5) has won three of their last four games with their 38-25 win at New Mexico as a 12-point favorite on November 30th. This bowl will take place in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINTS: Kent State became bowl-eligible by pulling upsets in their last three games of the season. The Golden Flashes upset Buffalo by a 30-27 score getting +6.5 points before stunning Ball State by a 41-38 score as a +3 point dog before their upset win against the Eagles to close out the regular season. Some may look at those results and expect this team to experience an emotional letdown after reaching the mountain of a bowl game. However, this is a team that continued to improve and develop during the regular season after facing a very difficult non-conference schedule that featured Wisconsin, Auburn, and Arizona State. At 32-years old, Sean Lewis is the youngest head coach in the FBS in his second-year with the program. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while Kent State has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Over their last three games, the Golden Flashes are scoring 35.0 PPG while averaging 456.3 total YPG which is +7.6 PPG and +62.7 YPG above their season average. This team is led by an underrated junior quarterback in Dustin Crum who beat out a former Auburn transfer in Woody Barrett during fall practice. Crum threw 18 touchdown passes this season while tossing just two interceptions while completing 68.2% of his passes and averaging a robust 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt. His 156.07 Passer Rating was tops in the Mid-American Conference. The dual-threat QB also led the team with 560 rushing yards entering this game. Crum’s offensive talent should keep Kent State competitive in this game. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Kent State has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. This team has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog when facing a non-Power Five opponent. The Golden Flashes have rushed for 266 and 253 yards in each of their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 225 yards in two straight games. Kent State is 44th in the nation by averaging 181.3 rushing YPG — and they will be facing an Aggies defense that has been vulnerable against the run by allowing 197.8 rushing YPG which is 103rd in the FBS. Utah State has allowed 297 and 276 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 225 rushing yards in two straight games. Additionally, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against conference opponents. This is a team that appears to be a prime candidate to be taking this bowl game lightly. They are distracted after four players were busted for pot possession on Saturday including their junior quarterback Jordan Love. This program peaked last season with their 11-2 campaign that ended with a 52-13 win over North Texas in the New Mexico Bowl. That team averaged 48 PPG — but with only two starters back on offense and their offensive guru in head coach Matt Wells leaving the program for Temple, the scoring plummeted to just 28.3 PPG this season (68th in the nation). Love had an uninspiring 17:16 touchdown-to-interception ratio after boasting a 32:6 ratio last season — yet he is still bailing on his senior year to enter the NFL draft while the iron remains (relatively) hot. The Regression Gods were expected to visit this team this season — but even with former head coach Gary Andersen returning to the program, this team was outscored and outgained in yardage this season. Three net close victories by one scoring possession were essential in them becoming bowl eligible. The Aggies were outscored by -7.0 PPG when playing on the road while being outgained by -113.0 net YPG. Utah State was also outscored by -6.7 PPG over their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Losing their All-American linebacker, David Woodward, midseason certainly did not help the development of the Aggies in Andersen’s return to the program. Utah State ranks 96th in the nation by allowing 431.4 total YPG. This is Kent State’s just third bowl game appearance in program history with this being their first bowl opportunity since 2012. They should be fired up — and their skill on offense should keep this game close. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the Kent State Golden Flashes (203) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte 49ers (202) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Charlotte (7-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-22 win at Old Dominion to close out their regular season on November 30th as a 10.5-point favorite. Buffalo (7-5) has won their last two games as well as five of their last six contests with their 49-7 win over Bowling Green as a 28-point favorite back on November 29th. This game is being played in Nassau in the Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte is a team that got significantly better as the season went on under first-year head coach Will Healy. After allowing at least 30 points in five of their first six games against FBS opponents, the 49ers did not allow more than 22 points in their final four games while holding both their last two opponents in Marshall and the Monarchs to below 5.0 Yards-Per-Play. Charlotte had nine starters back from a defense that ranked 22nd in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 337.3 total YPG last season but it took that group some time to adapt to the new 4-2-5 scheme implemented by defensive coordinators Brandon Cooper and Marcus West. The extra defensive back helped as the 49ers limited their opponents to just 198.3 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. Slowing down the run will be critical against the Bulls but this was a group that was 9th in the FBS two seasons ago by allowing just 105.7 rushing YPG so don’t be surprised if they deploy some of their familiar 5-2-4 looks that they used two years ago with three returning starters on that defensive line. Healy’s bigger assignment in his first season was improving an offense that scored just 21.7 PPG (tied for 113th in the FBS) last season. Mission accomplished: Charlotte raised that mark 31.6 PPG this season which was tied for 41st best. The offense is led by senior running back Benny LeMay who led a ground attack that averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 24th in the nation by averaging 213.3 rushing YPG. LeMay missed two games midseason but came back to put together back-to-back 100 yard plus rushing games to end the regular season. The improvement in the offense can be traced to the improved play of sophomore quarterback Chris Reynolds who completed 62.2% of his passes while throwing 21 touchdown passes to 10 interceptions while adding 757 rushing yards with 6 rushing touchdowns. Over Reynolds' last five games, he threw 9 TD passes with two games where he passed for 336 and 354 yards while adding a minimum of 94 rushing yards in each contest. Over their last three games, the 49ers outscored their opponents by +12.3 PPG while outgaining them by +122.3 net YPG. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win over a Conference USA rival. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, the 49ers have covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point sped in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least four touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Bulls were an impressive 6-1 at home this season — but they were only 2-4 away from home while being outscored by -2.8 PPG in those games. The weakness of this team is when they have to rely on their passing attack. Sophomore Kyle Vantrease did not win the starting quarterback job out of camp but took over after the season-ending injury to redshirt freshman Matt Myers. Vantrease averaged only 155 passing YPG in his seven starters. More telling, while Buffalo averaged just 18.7 passing attempts per game in their seven wins, that number rose to 26 passing attempts per game in their five losses — so the ability of the 49ers to slow down their rushing attack looks critical. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when getting at least two weeks to prepare.

FINAL TAKE: This is Buffalo’s first back-to-back bowl appearance in program history after playing and losing in last year’s Dollar General Bowl to Troy by a 42-32 score after blowing a 4th quarter lead. Buffalo is looking to win their first bowl game in their fourth try this afternoon. This will be the first bowl game for Charlotte in just their fifth year in the FBS — and the players will be excited to trigger the strobe light post-victory ritual that has been implemented by Healy. The first five Bahamas Bowls have all been decided by 4 points or less — expect another close game in the sixth incarnation of this bowl game. 20* CFB Bahamas Bowl ESPN Special with the Charlotte 49ers (202) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints may have a hard time recovering from the physical and emotionally draining experience of that showdown with the 49ers last week — and facing another physical team with this Indianapolis team will be a tough test. As it is, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games coming off a loss at home in their last game. And while the Saints have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Injuries are beginning to play a bigger role with this team. Not only is the offensive line banged up, but now they have lost defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins may be out for the rest of the season. The Saints stay at home where they are 5-2 in the Superdome but they are only outscoring their visitors by +2.5 net PPG. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Indianapolis will be playing with desperation tonight to keep their playoff hopes alive — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Colts have allowed 69 combined points over their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games. Indianapolis is also 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The encouraging aspect of this team is they are finding success on offense despite being without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (who is not likely to play tonight). Getting Marlon Mack at running back last week helped — and the Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Indianapolis stays on the road where they are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Look for Indianapolis to keep this game closer than expected. 10* NFL Indianapolis-New Orleans ESPN Special with the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While last week saw 94 combined points scored in a scoring fest between two NFC powers, history is not likely to repeat itself tonight back in the Big Easy. mNot only have the Saints played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game but they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Drew Brees led an offense that generated 465 yard of offense — but New Orleans has then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they gained at least 400 yards. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points in their last contest. And while New Orleans has scored at least 26 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. The Saints offensive line is banged up right now so it may be difficult for them to continue to put up these big offensive numbers. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record overall, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Indianapolis game plan will be to run the football with a healthy Marlon Mack working behind their great offensive line with the goal of controlling possession and burning time off the clock. The Colts have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total in December. With the Colts unlikely to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton tonight with head coach Frank Reich claiming he would only play if he was 100% again, the Indianapolis offense will be limited and unlikely willing to try to get into a shootout after losing in a high-scoring game with the Buccaneers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Buffalo should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss. And while the Bills could only manage 209 yards of offense against the tough Ravens’ defense, they are then 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo has a team that is built to play well on the road with their strong defense and good running game. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL by allowing just 16.3 PPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by holding their opponents to just 296.3 total YPG. Buffalo is also 5th in the NFL by averaging 135.3 rushing YPG. Buffalo is 5-1 on the road this season while outscoring their home hosts by +7.8 PPG. The Bills are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Buffalo has has six games decided by one scoring possession this season — they are 3-3 in those games. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has had nine games decided by one scoring possession where they have won six of those contests — so a double bad breaks going the other way and this could be a 6-7 football team. The Steelers are being outgained by -20.8 net YPG. Pittsburgh is getting it done despite having an anemic offense. Since Week 10, the Steelers are scoring only 16.6 PPG which is tied for 28th in the league during that span while averaging a mere 289.0 total YPG which is also 28th in the NFL. Even worse, Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 10 times since Week 10 which is tied for fourth worst during that span and their quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of just 74.5 in those games which is 29th. Rookie QB Devlin Hodges has been a gamer for this team — he completed 16 of 19 passes last week for 152 yards. But as the game tape grows on him, good defenses will begin to devise more specific game plans. Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott is one of the brightest defensive minds in the business — they held the juggernaut Baltimore offense led by likely league MVP Lamar Jackson to just 257 total yards last week. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Pittsburgh has responded from an 0-3 start with eight wins in their last ten games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning eight of their last ten contests. Furthermore, they managed only 135 net passing yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 150 net yards. The Steelers do expect to get running back James Conner back for this game but wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster has been downgraded to doubtful as he continues in the concussion protocol.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders with them winning five of their last six games decided by one scoring possession. Look for the Steelers good fortunes to run out tonight. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We bet numbers — and an Over/Under set in the mid-30s is simply too low in a game between two teams that is expected to be highly competitive between two potential playoff teams. The Steelers have played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. And while the Bills are allowing only 16.3 PPG this season, Pittsburgh has played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 17 PPG — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games in the second half of the season against opponents not allowing more than 17 PPG. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 37 of their last 56 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 38 point range — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as the favorite. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning eight of their last ten games. And while Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders which has helped drive this betting number down, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing five straight Unders. The Steelers’ offense will get a jump start with the return of running back James Conner. Buffalo only managed 209 yards of offense last week while averaging just 3.37 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 29 of their last 51 games Over the Total after failing to average at least 4.0 YPP in their last game including playing four of these last six games Over the Total. Buffalo does average 23.0 PPG when playing on the road — and while that is not a huge number, it does look more impressive when confronting a Total below 40. The Bills are conservative on offense given their outstanding defense but they have scored at least 17 points in eleven of their games while reaching at least 20 points in seven of their contests.

FINAL TAKE: Because this is expected to be a close game, the scoring should continue to trickle in during all 60 minutes of this contest — and this logic is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving a team that has won at least three of their last four games now facing a team that has won at least four of their last five games have then finished Over the Total in 55 of these last 81 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NFL Buffalo-Pittsburgh NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (330) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (329). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-7) has lost three straight games after their 31-24 upset loss at Chicago back on December 5th where they were 3-point favorites. Los Angeles (8-5) has won two straight games as well as five of their last seven with their 28-12 win over Seattle as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is being given zero respect by many bettors right now with the oddsmakers installing them as a 3-point favorite before bet down to a home underdog against this hot Rams team. Look for the Cowboys to respond with an inspired effort. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after dropping three of their last four contests. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And Dallas should benefit from the extra days off since playing that Thursday night game as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing on a Thursday night. The Cowboys did out gain the Bears by +26 net yards in that loss. In fact, Dallas has outgained each of their last nine opponents — and only New Orleans has won the yardage battle against them all season (by just 9 yards)! Perhaps the talent on this roster has been overrated — but the coaching and special teams on both sides of the ball in key circumstances have also let this team down. Despite losing their last three games, the Cowboys have outgained those opponents by +45.0 net YPG. This character certainly makes Dallas unreliable when laying points — but the flip side is that they do offer value as an underdog (especially if they will come close to winning the yardage battle). Not surprisingly then, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. Look for Dallas to get their rushing attack going after they managed only 82 rushing yards on just 22 carries against the Bears. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. While the Rams’ defense has been outstanding this season, they are only middling against the run by allowing 104.3 rushing YPG which is 12th in the league. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 contests after covering the point spread in three of their last four. Quarterback Jared Goff has played better as of late by leading his offense to average 303 passing YPG over their last three games — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG over their last three contests. And while Los Angeles has averaged 502 total YPG in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 500 YPG in their last two contests. Furthermore, the Rams have only allowed 19 combined points over their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas will have the extra motivation to avenge last year’s loss in the playoffs in Los Angeles by a 30-22 score. The Cowboys host this rematch where despite being just 3-3 this season they are outscoring their guests by +7.5 PPG and outgaining them by +118.5 YPG. 10* NFL LA Rams-Dallas Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (330) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (8-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week at home against Denver in an embarrassing 38-24 loss despite being an 8-point underdog. Tennessee (8-5) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-21 win at Oakland as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they have not lost two straight games in their last twenty-seven contests. The Texans have been consistently reliable this season coming off a loss this season. They have won all four of their games after a defeat so far this season while averaging 28.3 PPG along with 409.8 total YPG fueled by a ground game that has averaged 130.3 rushing YPG in those contests. Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 ames after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss as a favorite laying at least 6 points. Additionally, the Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. And Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on their home field. The Texans did end up outgaining the Broncos by 23 net yards but could not dig themselves out of the hole from their 31-3 halftime deficit. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Tennessee has been one of the hottest teams in the league since Ryan Tannehill has taken over as the starting quarterback — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three games in a row. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, Tennessee is just 16-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Tannehill was spectacular against the porous Raiders’ defense as he completed 21 of 27 passes for 391 yards while leading an offense that generated 552 total yards. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense after they allowed Oakland to gain 355 yards. Tennessee is just 19th in the NFL this season by allowing 361.5 total YPG — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Opponents have found success in the passing game against this Titans defense that allows 259.9 passing YPG which is 25th in the NFL — and their secondary is banged up entering this game. Tennessee is also being outgained at home by -44.9 net YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Texans. And wide receiver Will Fuller is expected to play again for the Texans — and they have won eleven of their last fourteen games with a healthy fuller complement wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Expect a close game where Houston will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (303) plus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army outgained Hawai’i by +46 net yards but managed to lose the game — although allowing a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown reversed what could have been a 45-38 score late in the 4th quarter. The Black Knights did rush for 411 yards in that game —and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home after rushing for at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. This Army team has improved on offense as the season has continued — they have generated at least 500 yards of offense in three straight games while averaging 47.0 PPG along with 575.2 total YPG in those games. But the Black Knights need to play better on defense after surrendering 492 yards to the Rainbow Warriors. Army has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 50 points in their last game. The Black Knights do have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. This was a disappointing season for an Army team that returned eleven starters from last year’s group that finished 11-2 after winning their final nine games. Monken has made this program into a juggernaut as they had won 29 games in their previous three seasons. The Black Knights endured four close losses decided by one scoring possession including a double-overtime loss at Michigan. But a victory over Navy offers this team an opportunity to salvage their season. Army is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December. The Black Knights are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog. Navy enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin against the Cougars but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after having at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last game. And while the Midshipmen have played five straight games where at least 66 combined points were scored, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Navy is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. The Midshipmen have slipped on defense to close out this season — they have allowed 40.3 PPG along with 427.0 total YPG over their last three contests. Navy has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. Additionally, the Midshipmen are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Army has won the last three meetings between these two teams — and the seniors will be motivated to graduate with an undefeated record against the Midshipmen. Navy will be very motivated to end their losing streak to the Black Knights — but this should be a close game with Army having covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Together, these team trends produce our specific 58-17-4 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Army Black Knights (303) plus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Black Knights surrendered 359 passing yards to the Rainbow Warriors in their last game — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his defense ready to play in this game as Army has played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a bye week. Despite surrendering 492 total yards to Hawai’i, the Black Knights have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. But the struggle for this team may be on the other side of the ball as Army averages just 20.8 PPG along with 338.8 total YPG away from home which is -9.5 PPG and -59.4 YPG below their season average. The Black Knights have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. Furthermore, Army has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Navy surrounded 393 passing yards to the Cougars in their last game — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Under is also 19-7-1 in the Midshipmen’s last 27 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Navy thrives with their run defense as they hold their opponents to only 109.7 rushing YPG which is 17th best in the nation. The most rushing yards they allowed all season was against Tulane who ran for 187 yards which was far below their 249.8 rushing YPG which is 13th best in the nation. The Midshipmen have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in December. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total playing on a neutral field as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 16 meetings Under the Total. With both teams deploying a spread triple option offensive attack, not only is the typical element of surprise gone for these respective offensive attacks who usually face opponents unfamiliar with their unique schemes but they are facing defenses that practice every day against their style. Army won last year’s game by a 17-10 score despite generating only 283 yards of offense with just 59 plays from scrimmage. Navy only had 208 total yards in that game on 54 plays. And in the Black Knights’ 14-13 victory in 2017, they had only 296 yards of offense on 48 plays but they limited the Midshipmen to just 241 total yards on 50 plays. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: In theory, I don’t love laying all these points in an NFL game. However, in practice, NFL teams laying at least 14 points are 20-13 ATS in these last 33 situations since the start of the 2017-18 season with favorites laying at least two touchdowns this season being 6-3 ATS. This is the first favorite laying at least 14 points since Week 8 when Minnesota was laying around -16.5 points for a Thursday night game against Washington. We took the underdog Skins that night in the Vikings’ 19-9 victory — but I am taking the chalk in this game under these different circumstances. The Jets are a M*A*S*H unit with a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve or otherwise out for the rest of the season. Those missing players do not include safety Jamal Adams cornerback Brian Poole, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, and tack Chuma Edoga who are four more starters declared out or doubtful for this game. This is bad news for a team that is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Jets now go back on the road where they are just 1-5 while scoring just 15.5 PPG and averaging a mere 239.7 total YPG. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Jets are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a double-digit underdog. And New York is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Defense is consistent on a week-to-week basis — and so are strong rushing attacks which is what this Baltimore team possesses behind Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram as they lead the NFL by averaging 200.8 rushing YPG. Perhaps this is why the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Baltimore returns home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +8.5 PPG. This team is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games under head coach John Harbaugh when playing on a Thursday night.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least seven games in a row. And while Baltimore has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. 10* NFL NY Jets-Baltimore Fox-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Baltimore offense leads the NFL by scoring 33.1 PPG — but they have only averaged 22 PPG in their last two contests while generating just 270.4 total YPG. The Ravens have played two outstanding defenses in their last two games against San Francisco and then the Bills last week — but those defenses also provided a blueprint as to how to slow down Lamar Jackson and this unique Baltimore offense. For starters, defenses are having their athletic defensive ends play “cat-and-mouse” with Jackson to not overcommit in their actions to contain the speedy QB in the pocket and force him to pass or run for a shorter gain. Second, pass coverages deploying quarter-quarter-half schemes which are pushing Jackson’s passing options to one side of the field. Lastly, Buffalo began to commit earlier to shifting a few defenders to the other side of the field in response to the Baltimore Escort Motion where a tight end (or wide receiver) goes in motion to offer a run-blocker on the other side of the field. The problem with that Bills’ tactic of shifting defenders before the man-in-motion passes the center will be that the Ravens will eventually reverse that motion and catch defenders moving too quickly to the wrong side. However, I don’t think Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman wastes that wrinkle on the Jets tonight — so the Jets should have some success copy-catting this and these other new defensive strategies. As it is, New York has an outstanding run defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 78.8 rushing YPG — and they lead the league by holding opposing rushers to use 3.03 Yards-Per-Carry. The Ravens return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. While Jackson gets most of the attention, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. The Bills passed for only 105 yards against them last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Darnold did complete 20 of 36 passes last week against the Dolphins for 270 yards — but the Jets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now New York goes on the road where they are scoring just 15.5 PPG along with averaging just 239.7 total YPG. The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New York’s defense does travel as they are holding their home hosts to just 308.8 total YPG. And in their last three games, the Jets are allowing only 15.3 PPG and just 282.2 total YPG. Additionally, New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t see the Jets scoring much tonight. Even if the Ravens put up a big number against this good New York defense, head coach John Harbaugh will likely call off the proverbial dogs early in this one with it being played on a short week. Jackson is not 100% with sore quads and getting him to the bench better takes advantage of the extra time off he will have before his next game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (159) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Eli Manning will be back under center for this game with rookie Daniel Jones out with an ankle injury. I expect Manning to be solid tonight and careful with the football after not playing for most of the year. The Giants have been a reliable road team relative to point spread expectations. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Giants’ defense has also played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. The Giants are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Eagles surrendered 409 yards of offense to the Dolphins last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Philadelphia did gain 386 yards in the loss — but they have then failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Eagles are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. They lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. The Eagles return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will probably win this game — but the Giants should revel in the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL NY Giants-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the New York Giants (159) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles should respond with a better effort tonight after that humiliating loss to the Dolphins — and their improved level of play will most likely translate on the defensive side of the football. Philadelphia had held their previous four opponents to no more than 17 points before allowing those 37 points to Miami. They also had not allowed more than 225 passing yards in five straight games before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 351 yards against them last week. The Eagles have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they gave played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where they both scored and allowed at least 30 points. Philadelphia has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Eagles return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 270.5 total YPG which is the third lowest number at home in the NFL. Philadelphia has played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as the favorite. But while Philly should play better on defense, they are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. The Eagles lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. They have played a decisive 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New York will be turning to Eli Manning back under center tonight with rookie Daniel Jones out with his ankle injury. Remember, Manning lost his job in September given his declining throwing skills made his lack of mobility a significant liability. Manning will also be without the top two tight ends on the roster with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison out with injuries tonight. This is not good news for an offense that has scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 286.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Giants’ defense has played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. New York held the Packers to just 79 rushing yards last week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least eight of their last ten games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% percentage in the second half of the season, New York has played all 6 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total — and in their last 9 opportunities to host the Giants in Philadelphia, the game finished Under the Total 7 times. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Rams bounced-back from their embarrassing 45-6 loss at home to Baltimore by crushing the Cardinals — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in their last game. Arizona has the worst defense in the NFL by allowing 426.3 total YPG — and they have surrendered 482.7 total YPG over their last three games in what are Texas Tech-like numbers for rookie head coach Kliff Kingbury so I am not ready to read too much into the Rams’ offense after that effort. Remember, the Rams had averaged 10.7 PPG in their previous three games before that date while averaging a mere 270 YPG in those contests. So while QB Jared Goff completed 32 of 43 passes for 424 yards, it is telling that LA is then 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they are scoring just 19.4 PPG while averaging just 313.4 total YPG. Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points including seven of these last nine situations. The Seahawks got it going with their ground game as they outrushed the Vikings by +140 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards. Seattle is a perfect 6-0 on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +6.8 net PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 8 straight road games with the Total set in the 45 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be looking to avenge a 30-29 loss in Seattle back on October 3rd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 58 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* NFL Seattle-LA Rams NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be tempting for many bettors to take the Over in this game with the Over Machine that is the Seahawks facing a Rams team that put up 34 points in a rematch from a 30-29 scoring fest that Seattle pulled out back on October 3rd. The historical numbers for situations like this (too valuable to share) strongly suggest that these games most likely finish Under the Total. These circumstances are certainly helping us to get some value with the Under with the number creeping up in the high-40s still. Seattle enters this game on a short week — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks are playing increasingly better on the defensive side of the football — they have held their last three opponents to just 333.3 total YPG which is -35.6 net YPG below their season average. Seattle goes back on the road where they are allowing just 19.5 PPG. The Seahawks have played 25 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 to 49. The Rams will want to run the football after rushing the ball 30 times last week for 132 yards in their blowout victory over the Cardinals. Head coach Sean McVay commented this week about not being an “idiot” by not feeding running back Todd Gurley the football (despite the loss in his lateral mobility with his arthritis). Los Angeles has run the ball at least 26 times in four of their last six games — and they have not so coincidentally played six of their last seven games Under the Total. But they will now be facing a Seattle defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing just 99.6 rushing YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They also held Arizona to just 74 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The LA defense is much improved after the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey which gave them an elite cover-corner. Over their last three games, the Rams have held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG along with only 315.0 total YPG. Los Angeles returns home where they are scoring only 19.4 PPG while averaging a mere 313.4 total YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. They also have played 29 of their last 43 games in December Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Ramsey did not play in the first meeting between these two teams — so his ability to bottleneck the Seahawks’ wide receiver Tyler Lockett as a deep threat from Russell Wilson. The Rams threw the ball in 49 of their 67 offensive plays in that opening game. I will be shocked if the skewed Run/Pass ratio will resemble that tonight. Look for LA to use their running game to burn time off the clock which is usually the Seahawks game plan as well (especially when they are playing on the road). The Rams have played 5 straight Unders when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-6) has lost two straight games after their 40-9 loss at Kansas City last week as an 11-point underdog. Tennessee (7-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-17 win at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oakland has been outscored by a humiliating 74 to 12 margin over their last two games with trips to coach weather New York against the Jets before their trip to a chilly Kansas City last week. Perhaps the playoff talk for this team was premature — but this is still a hardworking and well-coached team. They should rebound with a stronger effort today as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. They did outgain the Chiefs last week by +73 net yards so that final score was much worse than the reality on the ground where a Kansas City interception return for a touchdown along with some big plays on offense made the difference. Now Oakland returns home to the Coliseum where they are 4-1 this season to begin a final two-game homestand before moving to Las Vegas next season. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. Oakland has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when getting 3 points or less. Tennessee has won five of their last six games behind quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has jumpstarted the offense — but this team looks primed for an emotional letdown after defeating an AFC South rival on the road. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They only gained 292 yards of offense last week against the Colts in a game where they were outgained by -99 net yards — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They are also 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Now this team goes back on the road for just the third time in their last seven contests after playing four of their last six games in Nashville. UPDATE: Runnin back Josh Jacobs has been declared inactive for this game with his shoulder that now looks like he re-injured last week. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury for weeks that has not stopped him from playing. While disappointing, the Raiders remain a 25* play — Oakland has serviceable replacement level players at running back while this is a bounce-back situation for QB Derek Carr (and the Raiders defense) playing back at home after two bad games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is being outgained on the road by -20.0 YPG — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 road games as the favorite. 25* AFC Underdog of the Year on the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (147) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (148). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 31-17 loss to Tennessee last week as a 1-point underdog. Tampa Bay (5-7) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 28-11 win in Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis is just ravaged with injuries on offense with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton along with tight end Eric Ebron and running back Marlon Mack all on the shelf with injuries. There is no question that the Colts are limited with their skill position players to help out quarterback Jacoby Brissett. But even with those limitations last week, Brissett still completed 25 of 40 passes for 319 yards while leading an offense that generated 391 yards against the Titans defense. Indianapolis outgained Tennessee by +99 net yards. Look for head coach Frank Reich to inspire a big effort from his team to stop this losing streak in this winnable game. The Titans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games. The Colts are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has been consistently inconsistent this season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Now this team returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. The Buccaneers are very unreliable when laying the points as well. Not only has Tampa Bay failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as the favorite but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers won the turnover battle against the Jaguars last week with a +3 net turnover margin — but that was the first time they had more takeaways than giveaways in seven games. Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 28 times this season for an ugly 2.3 turnovers per game margin with Jameis Winston throwing 20 interceptions this season. That Indy loss last week was their first loss this season decided more than 6 points. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Indianapolis Colts (147) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-8-1) has lost five games in a row with their 24-20 loss at home to Chicago on Thanksgiving as a 5.5-point underdog. Minnesota (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-30 loss at Seattle as a 3-point underdog on Sunday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They did get a surprisingly good performance from undrafted rookie free agent David Blough at quarterback who completed 22 of 38 passes for 280 yards. But after Blough led the team to a 17-10 halftime lead, Detroit only scored a field goal in the second half with the Bears slowing down the Lions offense. Now this stout Vikings’ defense has had ten days to study the game tape of the former Purdue quarterback to dissect for this contest. Detroit gained 364 yards in that contest — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC North opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Minnesota will be looking to get back to playing outstanding defense after surrendering 444 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week. The Vikings have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now Minnesota returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 15.6 PPG along with only 331.4 total YPG. The Vikings have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Minnesota has paled 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents. And in their last 9 games in December, the Vikings have played 7 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota won the first meeting between these two teams by a 42-30 sore as a 2.5-point favorite back on October 20th. Head coach Matt Patricia should dial-up some better schemes on defense for this rematch. These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — and these two teams have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-7) has lost four games in a row with their 29-21 upset loss to Washington as a 10.5-point favorite last week. Atlanta (3-9) has lost two in a row with their 26-18 loss at home to New Orleans on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina fired their long-time head coach, Ron Rivera, this week in this lost season. Perry Fewell takes over as the interim head coach in a role he also served on an interim basis in Buffalo back in 2009. Scott Turner has also been elevated to the interim offensive coordinator with his father, Norv, installed as an assistant to the head coach. Now the everyone’s job on the line, look for an inspired effort from this Panthers’ team today — and they also will have an element of surprise with the changes that will come from the assistant coaching staff changes. Carolina has bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Panthers surrendered 362 yards to the Skins last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been a solid road team this season — they are 3-3 on the road while averaging a healthy 25.2 PPG. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, while Carolina has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Falcons are playing for next year with an offensive line that was not fixed in the offseason (albeit, injuries did not help). Atlanta has allowed 40 sacks this season after the Saints dropped Matt Ryan nine times last week. The Falcons are just 1-5 at home this season where they are scoring only 17.3 PPG while being outgained by -10.9 PPG. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the favorite. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will also be motivated to avenge an ugly 29-3 upset loss at home to the Falcons as a 4.5-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 54 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NFC South Underdog of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (119) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (120). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (10-2) has won four straight games after their 38-17 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite. Ohio State (12-0) defeated Michigan in Ann Arbor last Saturday by a 56-27 score as an 8.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field in Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin played the Buckeyes close for 35 minutes in the first meeting between these two teams before they game got out of control late in a 38-7 loss on October 26th. Ohio State had just a 10-7 lead in the 3rd quarter of that game. The Badgers’ physical style of defense and running the football has helped them go 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the Big Ten Championship or a bowl game as an underdog with Wisconsin pulling the upset five times. The Badgers has scored at least 37 points in each of their last three games — and they are tough to handle when they get their offense going. Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight games. They generated 453 yards in their win against the Golden Gophers — and they are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while Wisconsin has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 34 of their last 48 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning at least five games in a row. They dominated the Wolverines last week with 28 first downs while controlling the clock for 36:25 minutes — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after holding the ball for at least 34 minutes and gaining at least 24 first downs in their last game. The Buckeyes did show some vulnerability in that game as they surrendered 305 passing yards to the Michigan offense — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing  yards in their last game. Quarterback Justin Fields did not leave that game 100% either with a knee injury which may limit his mobility tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 8 straight games on the road when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. With superstar running back Jonathan Taylor, the Badgers have the ability to control the clock to stay competitive with the Buckeyes. 10* CFB Wisconsin-Ohio State Fox-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (119) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-1) has won six straight games with their 52-7 win over Georgia Tech last week as a 28.5-point favorite. LSU (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 50-7 win over Texas A&M last week as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs’ biggest question mark is with their skill players on offense. Wide receiver Lawrence Cager is out the season with an ankle injury and wide receiver George Perkins will miss the first half in this game to serve out a suspension. Furthermore, running back D’Andre Swift is dealing with a shoulder injury but it looks like he will be able to play in this game. Georgia did generate 500 yards against the Yellow Jackets — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback in Jake Fromm who has the experience of a National Championship Game as well as two prior SEC Championship Games. But is the Georgia defense that should keep them in this game. They rank 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.4 PPG — and they rank 4th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to only 257.0 total YPG. The Bulldogs also may very well have the best special teams unit in the nation. This combination of elite defense and special teams has helped Georgia cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games played on a neutral field, Georgia has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Tigers held the football for 34:38 minutes against the Aggies while generating 31 first downs, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes in their last game. The Tigers also gained 553 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Remember that while LSU has been explosive on offense often this season, they narrowly got by Auburn by a 23-20 score — and the Tigers are a defense-first run team like the Bulldogs. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia is a dangerous underdog that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when getting the points since 2016 with them pulling the outright upset three times. 25* CFB Power-Five Conference Championship Game of the Year is with the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (9-4) has won four straight games with their 52-31 win over Army last week as a 2.5-point favorite. Boise State (11-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Colorado State on the road by a 31-24 score as a 13.5-point favorite. The Broncos earned the right to host this Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their better record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Don’t be scared off going against home teams in conference championship games. Home teams are now just 18-20 ATS in the thirty-right times that one has hosted a conference championship contest. Only one home team covered the point spread last year in the Conference Championship games (Central Florida) with the three other home teams failing to cover the point spread with Middle Tennessee and this Boise State team losing outright despite being a home favorite. The Broncos are not a reliable big favorite as they have failed to covert point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. With freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier still recovering from his shoulder injury, 5th year senior quarterback Jaylon Henderson will make his fourth straight start for this team. The Broncos are averaging 43 PPG in his three starts with the 31 points they put up last week being their lowest number — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Boise State was outgained by 35 yards last week by a mediocre Rams team that then let their head coach go. The Broncos surrendered 289 passing yards with Colorado State averaging 6.32 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. This leaky pass defense presents a scary proposition when facing the Rainbow Warriors’ junior quarterback Cole McDonald that leads an offense that is 6th in the nation by averaging 332.5 passing YPG. It will be a chilly night in Boise with temperatures in the 40s — but I watched McDonald complete 31 of 36 passes for 373 yards on a cold night in Reno earlier this season against Nevada. Hawai’i has four receivers with at least 50 catches. I was also impressed with the Rainbow Warriors’ ability to move the football against a strong Army defense in what was a lame-duck game for them with this MWC Championship Game already clinched. Hawai’i gained 492 yards against the Black Knights while only having the ball for 24:40 minutes in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Rainbow Warriors did surrender 411 rushing yards to Army’s spread triple option — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 375 rushing yards in their last game. The Hawai’i defense has improved — they held their last two conference opponents in UNLV and San Diego State to just 18 combined points along with only 4 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. The Rainbow Warriors have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road with the Total set at 63 to 70 including covering the point all three times in that situation this season.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State won the first meeting between these two teams at home by a 59-37 score back on October 12th. But Hawai’i has covered the point spread in their last 5 opportunities to exact same-season revenge. The Broncos may be taking the Rainbow Warriors lightly while dreaming of the Cotton Bowl as the Group of Five representative in the New Year’s Six bowls — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. Hawai’i is a very dangerous underdog giving the potency of their offensive attack. 25* CFB Underdog of the Year with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (114) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (113). THE SITUATION: Memphis (11-1) has won six straight games with their 34-24 win over Cincinnati last week as a 13.5-point favorite. The Tigers get to stay at home for this immediate rematch for the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats may have held back some of their tricks last week with their spot in this game already clinched. Quarterback Desmond Ridder did not play last week with his shoulder injury but Cincinnati got better play in the passing game with freshman Ben Bryant completing 20 of 32 passes for 229 yards. Ridder will be back under center for this game but he has just a 64.6 Passer Ratlin in his last two games against South Florida and Temple. Despite their 10-2 record, the Bearcats only outgained their opponents by +8.5 net YPG. They won all four of their close games decided by one scoring possession. Cincinnati also struggled on the road where they were outgained by -55.3 net YPG. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in December, Cincinnati is just 0-5-1 ATS. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They get to stay at home where they have lost only once since the 2017 season. The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 at home this year with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. Memphis has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has lost the last two American Athletic Conference Championship Games to Central Florida — so this should be a very determined team to finally climb the hump to with a conference title. 10* CFB Cincinnati-Memphis ABC-TV Special with the Memphis Tigers (114) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (112) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (111). THE SITUATION: FAU (9-3) has won five straight games with their 34-17 win over Southern Mississippi last week as a 9-point favorite. UAB (9-3) has won three straight games with their 26-21 win at North Texas last week as a 3.5-point favorite. The Owls host this Conference USA Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE FAU MINUS THE POINTS: The Owls have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win by at least 17 points. And while FAU has scored at least 31 points in six straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. This team has steadily improved under head coach Lane Kiffin. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after the first month of the season. In Kiffin’s two teams that were bowl eligible at FAU, they are 18-6-1 ATS in those 25 games with an average winning margin of +24.1 PPG. The Owls have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to14 points, FAU has covered the point spread in 5 of these games. UAB has played one of the softest schedules in the nation this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have won their last two games by 6 points or less — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. And while the Blazers are outgaining their opponents by +161 YPG at home, they are only outgaining their opponents on the road by +27 YPG while being outscored by -5.0 PPG. UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Blazers have been outscored by -21.7 PPG against the three teams they have faced that are bowl eligible. They also got crushed by a 37-2 score to the Southern Miss team that FAU just clobbered. 20* CFB UAB-FAU CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida Atlantic Owls (112) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (111). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (109) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (110). THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-1) has won their last two games with their 61-6 win over Kansas last week as a 14-point favorite. Oklahoma (11-1) has won four in a row with their 34-16 win at Oklahoma State as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. The Big 12 Championship Game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. With Utah’s loss last night, Oklahoma may be in the driver’s seat to earn the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff with a victory in this game. But with high expectations comes more pressure as the Utes found out last night. This Sooners team has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They have benefited from three net close victories decided by one scoring possession. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of 9 games against Big 12 opponents this season. And in their last 13 games played on a neutral field as the favorite, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread 10 times. Baylor has picked themselves up off the mat after blowing a 28-3 lead against the Sooners in their 34-31 loss at home back on November 16th. The Bears have outscored their Kansas and Texas by a combined 69 points. Baylor generated 507 yards against the Jayhawks — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in December. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 23 of the last 32 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor head coach Matt Rhule thrives when preparing his team in the role of the underdog. In his coaching career going back to his time at Temple, Rhule’s teams are 33-14 ATS with sixteen upset victories. Rhule’s Baylor teams have covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog with five upset victories included. 10* CFB Baylor-Oklahoma ABC-TV Special with the Baylor Bears (109) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (107) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (108). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (10-2) has won six straight games with their 31-30 win over UL-Monroe as a 20.5-point favorite last week. Appalachian State (11-1) has won four straight games after their 48-13 win at Troy last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Lafayette has raised their level of play after losing to the Mountaineers by a 17-7 score back on October 19th. They have scored at least 31 points in each of their last six games with an average winning score of 40-15. The Ragin’ Cajuns should enter this game with confidence — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. And while they gained 522 yards last week to the Warhawks, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. The Ragin’ Cajuns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning three straight games in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after playing two straight Sun Belt foes. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they dominated the Trojans last week by holding the ball for 34:30 minutes while generating 27 first downs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. Appalachian State hosts this Sun Belt Championship Game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games when laying up to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Mountaineers may be in line to earn the Group of Five bid to a New Year’s Six bowl — and they may get caught looking ahead when hosting a team that they have defeated by double-digits in their last three meetings including last year’s Sun Belt Championship Game by a 30-18 score. But Lafayette head coach Billy Napier has led his teams to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and his teams have pulled the upset in three of their last four games as a dog getting less than 7 points. 20* CFB Lafayette-Appalachian State ESPN Special with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (107) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (103) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (104). THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) reached the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 24-10 win over Oregon State last Saturday as a 20.5-point favorite. Utah (11-1) joined them with their 45-15 win over Colorado as a 27.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while the Ducks went into halftime with a 17-3 lead over the Beavers last week, they have then covered the point spread in a decisive 44 of their last 58 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Oregon defense should keep the Ducks in a close game tonight. First-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has done a fantastic job with a unit that returned seven starters from last year’s squad. Oregon ranks 10th in the nation by allowing just 15.8 PPG. It starts up from for the Ducks with nose guard Jordan Scott who leads a defensive line that holds their opponents to only 106.1 rushing YPG which is 10th in the nation. This stout run defense forces opponents to pass — and Oregon has picked off 17 passes this season. The Utes’ senior quarterback Tyler Huntley will be challenged by the toughest defense that he has faced all season in this Ducks’ unit. Huntley completed 14 of 17 passes last week against the Buffaloes for 165 passing yards — but Utah has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last contest. The Utes are a senior-laden squad that will be looking to redeem themselves from losing to Washington by a 10-3 score in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game. But this group is also facing the pressure of needing this win to keep their College Football Playoff aspirations alive — and these expectations are new to this program that has not won more than 10 games in the Kyle Whittingham era. Strength of schedule is also an issue for this Utes team whose best opponent may have been the USC that they lost to by a 30-23 score. Utah’s most impressive wins were at Washington an BYU. Oregon is, by far, the best team that the Utes will have faced all season.

FINAL TAKE: I have thought that the Ducks’ quarterback, Justin Herbert, has been a bit overrated which is why I have faced Oregon in some of their big games this season. But I think Herbert is much more dangerous leading his team in the role of the underdog — and the Ducks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to 7 points. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (103) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) reached the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 24-10 win over Oregon State last Saturday as a 20.5-point favorite. Utah (11-1) joined them with their 45-15 win over Colorado as a 27.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Utes’ gameplan is to control Time of Possession while crushing the will of their opponent in this game of keep away by employing a very physical style of defense. Utah plays the slowest tempo in the FBS while averaging 34:52 minutes per game with the football. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home. Additionally, the Utes have played 16 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home by at least 28 points. Utah held the Buffaloes last week to just 217 yards of offense — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Utes have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Utah has not allowed more than 15 points in seven of their last eight games. Kyle Whittingham’s defense ranks third in the nation by holding their opponents to just 11.3 PPG — and they also rank 3rd in the FBS by allowing just 241.6 total YPG. The Utes have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against Pac-12 opponents. Furthermore, Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field when favored by up to 7 points. Senior quarterback Tyler Huntley will be challenged by the toughest defense that he has faced all season in this Ducks’ unit. First-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has done a fantastic job with a unit that returned seven starters from last year’s squad. Oregon ranks 10th in the nation by allowing just 15.8 PPG. It starts up from for the Ducks with nose guard Jordan Scott who leads a defensive line that holds their opponents to only 106.1 rushing YPG which is 10th in the nation. This stout run defense forces opponents to pass — and Oregon has picked off 17 passes this season. The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Oregon is led by senior quarterback Justin Herbert who is touted as a high NFL draft prospect but who has underperformed in big games throughout his career. While the Ducks average 452.3 total YPG at home in Autzen Stadium, that number drops by over 60 YPG to just 389.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. Oregon has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Utah played in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game and lost to Washington by a 10-3 score. While this game should see more offense, expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. This is also a team that has lost the turnover battle in four straight games after not generating even one takeaway over that stretch. Dallas has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a losing the turnover battle in their last game — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after suffering a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The defense remains very good for this team — they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing 19.7 PPG and by limiting their opponents to just 321.6 total YPG. The Dallas defense has been even better on the road where they hold their opponents to just 19.2 PPG along with only 294.7 total YPG. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed the Lions’ behind rookie quarterback David Blough to generate 364 yards last week, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This unit should be up for the challenge tonight — while Dallas averages 25.8 PPG, the Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. Chicago did gain 419 yards last week against a bad Lions defense — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team turns home where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as a small underdog getting up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: The cold weather should play a role in slowing down both offenses that struggle in translating their drives into touchdowns. Dallas ranks 24th in the NFL in Yards-Per-Point with Chicago ranking 19th in that metric — and the Cowboys are 31st in the league in that metric over their last three games while the Bears rank 28th. Chicago has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Dallas-Chicago Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: After starting the season with three straight wins by double-digits, the Cowboys have lost six of their last nine games. Frankly, if Dallas was going to step-up, the moment was last week at home against a solid Bills team. And they outplayed the Bills by winning the first-down battle by a 32 to 22 margin while outgaining them by +70 yards. Yet this team is finding ways to lose. Dallas has not forced a turnover in four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Head coach Jason Garrett is clearly on the hot seat but perhaps the players are ready for a change. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The Bears average only 281.8 total YPG — but Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games against teams who do not average more than 285 total YPG. And while the Cowboys surrendered 356 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The team got more bad news this week with their star linebacker, Leighton Vander Esch, declared out for tonight’s game with a neck injury. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on Thursday Night Football. This has also been an unreliable team in expected close games as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by up to 3 points. Chicago has gotten back to winning helped by facing a weak schedule — but that has given this team confidence. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 6 of the last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less. Mitchell Trubisky has been playing with more confidence and verve as well as of late. Over his last four games, he has completed 94 of his 145 passes (65%) for 979 yards with eight TD passes and just four interceptions for a solid 91.1 Quarterback Rating. Over their last three games, the Bears are averaging 340.3 total YPG which is almost 60 YPG above their 281.8 total YPG season average. Just average production on offense will make a big difference for this team that is still playing outstanding defense. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This elite defense makes this team a very dangerous home dog — they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home while going 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 42.5 to 49. And while the Cowboys average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry, Chicago has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog getting up to a field goal. These are two playoff teams from last season who had deeper metrics that predicted the downturn we are now witnessing. However, Chicago is feeling a little better about themselves right now — and Dallas is a dome team favored on the road in cold weather with temperatures expected in the low-40s. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, Minnesota has played 20 of their last 25 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Ever since getting called out by wide receiver Adam Thielen for not being aggressive enough in the passing game, Kirk Cousins has been on fire. Since Week Five, Cousins is completing 73% of his passes with 18 touchdowns passes and just one interception. Those 18 TD passes are most in the NFL over that span and his 75 Quarterback Rating since Week Five is the fourth-best in the NFL. The Vikings are 6th in the NFL by averaging 378.6 total YPG — and they are generating 384.7 YPG when playing on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. But a concern for the Vikings as of late has been the play of their defense. over their last three games, Minnesota is allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average. Seattle has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Now the Seahawks return home where their defense has been surprisingly shaky. Seattle is allowing its visitors to score 29.2 PPG while averaging 385.8 total YPG. But behind Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are outscoring their opponents as they are 3rd in the NFL by averaging 385.4 total YPG — and they are scoring 26.8 PPG while generating 403.2 total YPG when playing at home. Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Seattle. 10* NFL Minnesota-Seattle ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: With Seattle being around a field goal favorite at home in this NFC showdown, I expect Russell Wilson to outduel Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks have won twenty of their last twenty-two games in Prime-Time. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Wilson is leading an offense that is 3rd in the league by averaging 385.4 total YPG. The Seahawks defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to 22.3 PPG along with 354.7 total YPG which is -1.6 PPG and -15.6 YPG below their season averages. This Seattle defense has also been more opportunistic as of late as well as they have forced sixteen turnovers over their last six games as well triggering eight takeaways in their last two games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Weeks 10 through 13 of the regular season under head coach Pete Carroll — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 appearances on Monday Night Football. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Minnesota does have an elite roster — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Cousins has lost eight of his last twelve starts over the last two seasons against teams with a winning record as well. And despite their string of victories, there are some warning signs for this team. The offense is averaging just 331.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -47.6 net YPG below their season mark. The Vikings are also allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG over those last three contests which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. I am not standing in the way of that evidence. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (473) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The weather played a role for the Patriots gaining only 282 yards last week against the Cowboys. But the ability of Tom Brady to move the ball down the field should improve with Isaiah Wynn healthy again at left tackle. Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett will be both be active for this game as well — and rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry continues to get more involved with this offense after being injured for the first part of the season. New England has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England goes back on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +16.3 PPG. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a close win at home by 3 points or less. The Texans outgained the Colts by +100 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Houston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Despite winning two of their last three games, the Texans have been outgained by -35.0 net YPG over that stretch. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. This Houston team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in December. Look for Brady to do what it takes to outduel Deshaun Watson. 10* NFL New England-Houston NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (473) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The New England offense is not operating close to peak levels right now with Tom Brady lacking reliable vertical targets. The Patriots are scoring only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 307.3 total YPG. Remember that New England has scored six non-offensive touchdowns this season from their defense or special teams — so while they are scoring 27.3 PPG, that number drops 23.5 PPG when only accounting for offensive touchdowns. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans offense has slowed as of late as they are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 346.0 total YPG. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. Houston does play better defense at home — they are holding their visitors to just 20.2 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. The Texans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: In New England’s last 12 games in December, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. And in the Texans’ last 11 games played in December, Houston has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (461) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (462). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 34-3 upset loss in New York against the Jets as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (7-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 win over the Chargers in Mexico City back on November 18th as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Andy Reid is renowned for his amazing 22-4 straight-up record after a bye week but he has led the Chiefs to a milder 5-3 record in his eight games coached after a bye week in Kansas City. More importantly for our purposes, the Chiefs are just 4-4 ATS in those 8 games after a bye week under Reid’s leadership — so we should not be scared off betting against this team simply because Reid has had more time to prepare. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when playing after a game on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs were outgained by -128 net yards to the Chargers due to their leaky defense allowing 438 yards in that game. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Oakland should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Oakland should have success running the football behind rookie phenom Josh Jacobs against this Chiefs’ defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 143.1 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will also be looking to avenge a 28-10 loss to Kansas City back on September 15th. The Chiefs are just 2-2 at home this season where they are actually being outgained by -17.4 net YPG. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Oakland Raiders (461) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-5) has won five of their last six games with their 16-10 win in Cincinnati last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Cleveland (5-6) has won three straight games with their 41-24 win over Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is the old saying: “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.” A pissed off Mike Tomlin might come in a close second. The Pittsburgh head coach was seething after the Thursday night game back on November 14th between these two teams that ended with the ugly fight on the field that resulted in the Browns’ star defensive end Myles Garrett being suspended indefinitely for using his helmet as a weapon. The rough-house did not start then — Cleveland had already knocked out the Steelers’ top two wide receivers in that game with cheat shots to the helmet. The Browns beat-up Tomlin’s team before the final events of that game. And Tomlin will have his team ready to respond. I don’t quote players or coaches often in my Reports but here is Tomlin this week: “We love being in hot-button games. We love being in hotly contested AFC North games … To be quite honest with you, we're not a group that runs from these types of games. We're the type of group that runs to these types of games. We view it as an honor to be the consistent team in these battles.” Add into this volatile mix that the Steelers are a home underdog to the Browns for the first time since 1989 and Tomlin has a treasure trove of items to motivate his team. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They also are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Now they return home after playing their last two games on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Tomlin has also benched the ineffective Mason Rudolph at quarterback by tapping Devlin Hodges as the starter. Hodges is a gunslinger who broke FCS passing records at Samford before wowing coaches who have loved his moxie. It is hard to bench a high draft choice for an FCS guy — but Tomlin’s move in this situation speaks to his coaching staff’s confidence in his skills. In a previous start this season in a victory against the Chargers, the Pittsburgh offensive playbook seemed closer to the one Ben Roethlisberger uses as compared to the lack of a vertical passing game that has been a problem with Rudolph. Hodges completed 15 of 20 passes in the win over the Chargers — and he has completed 27 of his 40 passes this season for a 67.5% completion percentage while averaging a healthy 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt for 318 passing yards. He has thrown only one interception this season. Injuries have hurt this team on the offensive side of the ball with wide receiver Juju Shuster now declared out for this game as he recovers from his concussion and running back James Conner not doubtful with his shoulder. But the Steelers did rush for 159 yards last week — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is scoring 24.3 PPG in their six home games — and they are holding their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 290.2 total YPG. This Steelers’ defense has developed into a top unit with the continued development of rookie linebacker Devin Bush and the midseason acquisition of cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick — they rank 6th in the league by allowing just 320.6 total YPG. Pittsburgh has held its last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with just 281.6 total YPG. Cleveland has been inconsistent this season with their talent on paper not matching their mental discipline nor leadership from their rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while Cleveland’s win over the Dolphins came on the heels of their victory over the Steelers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. The Browns gained 467 yards against Miami — but they are 13-30-1 ATS in their last 44 games after gaining at least 350 yards and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Browns go back on the road where they are just 2-3 while scoring only 19.6 PPG. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. This also remains a team that is just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings of these divisional rivals. Tomlin’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC North foes. And in the Steelers’ last 43 opportunities to avenge a loss where they scored no more than 14 points, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). THE SITUATION: Alabama (10-1) enters their final game of the regular season coming off a 66-3 warmup victory over Western Carolina last week as a 58.5-point favorite. Auburn (8-3) hosts this year’s Iron Bowl coming after their 52-0 shutout victory over Samford last week as a 45.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The big question for Alabama is just how much of a drop-off will they experience without Tua Tagovailoa who suffered a season-ending hip injury in their win over Mississippi State. But it is pretty much situation normal for Alabama to thrive under head coach Nick Saban when they have the proverbial “game manager” under center. What made Tagavailoa such an exciting talent is that Saban had never had a quarterback quite so dynamic as him in his thirteen-year tenure in Tuscaloosa. Tagavailoa broke the NCAA record in passing efficiency last year before producing another outstanding season this year before suffering an ankle injury midseason. But remember that Alabama did plenty of winning with A.J. Mccarran and Greg McElroy as the signal-caller. Here is something that I have never written or uttered before: I think this offense will benefit from the experience of offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. I was not a fan of his work as the OC with the Atlanta Falcons — but his Red Zone issues there did get better over time. But Sarkisian is unquestionably a wily veteran at this point in his career which includes him serving as the offensive coordinator for Alabama in the 2017 National Championship Game where they lost to Clemson by a 35-31 score. I have confidence that he can dial-up a game plan to help put sophomore Mac Jones in a position to succeed. The Crimson Tide may very well have the most talented wide receiver group in the nation with four future NFL players in Jerry Judy, Henry Ruggs III, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle. Auburn has an outstanding defense but it is difficult for any unit to provide ample coverage to all that talent. Don’t be surprised if Sarkisian has plenty of new schemes that get the ball quickly to these talented skill position players in ways different than the skills Tagovailoa offered. It is not as if Jones lacks talent himself — of course, he was highly recruited coming out of high school (Phil Steele ranked him his #25th incoming QB). Jones has completed 28 of 34 passes for 510 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his two starts this season against Arkansas and Western Carolina. And he will get help from running back Najee Harris who has quietly averaged 6 Yards-Per-Carry. I still see an offense very similar to the one that Saban won four National Championships here at Alabama before he called on Tagovailoa to come in relief in the second half to rally his team to defeat Georgia two years ago for his fifth championship for the Crimson Tide. Alabama has still averaged 530.7 total YPG over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three contests. And while the Tide has averaged 8.5 Yards-Per-Play and 9.49 YPP in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in two straight games. Furthermore, the Alabama defense will be playing with a chip on their shoulders to make things happen. While injuries early in the season required younger players in the front seven to take on more playing time, this unit ranks 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 315.4 total YPG. The Crimson Tide has forced 25 turnovers this season — and they lead the nation by averaging +1.55 net turnovers per game. The weak link for this Auburn team is their offense that ranks just 54th in the nation by averaging 427.2 total YPG. While the Tigers have speed to burn at the skill positions, they are not nearly as talented at the wide receiver positions with reliable ball catchers. Furthermore, freshman quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in big games in his rookie season without the elite talent at his disposal that Jones will enjoy. In losses to Florida and LSU, Nix completed just 26 of 62 passes with just two touchdown passes and four interceptions. And while the Tigers forced Georgia to punt eleven times when hosting the Bulldogs, they still only managed 14 points in that loss. Nix completed 15 of 23 passes last week against Samford — but don’t be fooled by those numbers as he generated only 150 passing yards in that warmup game. Pro Football Focus rated that performance as the lowest-graded of all SEC quarterbacks last week — so it is safe to say that he is not entering the biggest game of his career with tons of momentum. As it is, Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win at home. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 28 points. Auburn’s play on defense has helped them play four straight Unders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Auburn played LSU close in a 23-20 loss — but they also survived one-possession games in wins over Oregon, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Some pundits think the Tide needs a big win in this game to keep their playoff hopes alive but I suspect that all they need is a victory to remind the Playoff Committee and the potential audience in the National Semifinals that this team was on-target for one of the best seasons in college football history before their surprising 44-16 loss to Clemson in the championship game. This team remains chippy for the opportunity for a rematch — and that drive should lead them to victory this afternoon. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UNLV Rebels (389) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (390). THE SITUATION: UNLV (3-8) snapped their four-game losing streak last week with their 38-35 upset win over San Jose State as a 7-point underdog. Nevada (7-4) has won their last three games with their 35-28 upset win at Fresno State last Saturday as a 12-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rebels have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset win as a home dog. Additionally, UNLV has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. And while the Rebels gained 455 yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UNLV goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played also played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 12 games again teams with a winning record, the Rebels have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Nevada has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team is playing much better defense to end their regular season as they have held their last three opponents to just 17.0 PPG along with only 328.7 total YPG. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolf Pack have also played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders in this series. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the UNLV Rebels (389) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (368) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (367). THE SITUATION: Michigan (9-2) has won four straight games after their 39-14 win at Indiana last week as a 10-point favorite. Ohio State (11-0) looks to remain unbeaten heading into their clinched slot in the Big Ten Championship Game next Saturday after their 28-17 win over Penn State last week as a 20-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan is playing their best football at this point of the season. Since the halftime of their eventual loss at Penn State, the Wolverines have outscored their opponents over those last 18 quarters by a 180 to 52 margin. Over their last four games, this team is scoring 41.5 PPG. In large part, the team finally began to click with the new system of rookie offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. But Gattis also saw improvement in his first year calling plays by adjusting to the Michigan talent while also adding some plays where the quarterback was under center to improve their ability to execute in situation football. However, the under-appreciated element to this improvement was the improved health of some of the key players on offense. Junior wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones did not play early in the season as he recovered from an injury while quarterback Shea Patterson finally got back to full health after battling a chest injury that impacted both his throwing motion and his mobility for the first half of the season. Turnovers were a killer for this team early in the season as well — but this team has committed only two turnovers in those 18 quarters since halftime in Happy Valley. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. Additionally, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home where they are a perfect 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.3 PPG. Michigan once again has an elite defense that is 4th in the nation by allowing just 267.0 total YPG. They hold their visitors to just 11.5 PPG along with only 226.2 total YPG this season in the Big House. This defense was exposed last season against the Buckeyes when they used their speedy wideouts to quick crossing routes than defensive coordinator Don Brown’s man-to-man schemes could not keep up with. Florida then burned the Wolverines in the Peach Bowl with similar concepts. But Brown adjusted for the Notre Dame game this season by deploying zone concepts that stymied the Irish’s crossing schemes in their dominant 45-14 victory. Michigan has now covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Ohio State has looked dominant this season — but the talk that this may be one of the best Buckeyes’ teams ever is premature. Despite having some potentially scary moments against the Nittany Lions, this Ohio State team has not endured the proverbial punch in the face that truly measured their character to handle adversity. The Buckeyes have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Ohio State has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. And while Ohio State has not allowed more than 3.75 Yards-Per-Play in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing four straight opponents to average more than 4.25 YPP. The Buckeyes have failed also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Michigan as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State was the home underdog last season which helped motivate them to crush the Wolverines by a 62-39 score as a 4-point dog. The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this rivalry game. As if Michigan was not motivated enough to avenge that loss, but their long-time defensive coach, Greg Mattison, defected to Columbus in the offseason to become the co-defensive coordinator for the Buckeyes to pour fuel on the fire of this rivalry. With temperatures in the low-30s for this game, expect a close game. 20* CFB Ohio State-Michigan Fox-TV Special with the Michigan Wolverines (368) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (367). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). THE SITUATION: Troy (5-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their ugly 53-3 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 13-point underdog. Appalachian State (10-1) has won three straight games with their 35-13 win over Texas State last week as a 28-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: What happened to Troy last week. For starters, they ran into a juggernaut which is that Ragin’ Cajuns team that may very well be the best non-Power Five in the nation this year. Senior quarterback Kaleb Barker also suffered his worst game of the season by throwing two picks and completing just 15 of 32 passes. This team endured a -3 net turnover margin in that contest — but not only have they covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin but they also have covered 18 of their last 24 games after suffering a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. The Trojans were also completing a gauntlet of a schedule that had them on the road for the second straight week as well as the fourth time in five games. Troy should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss by at least 20 points and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a loss by at last four touchdowns. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score at least 20 points. This is a proud, veteran team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that finished the season 10-3.  Barker leads a passing attack that remains 12th in the nation by averaging 314.0 passing YPG. They return home where they are scoring 47.8 PPG while averaging 520.0 total YPG. They are outscoring their guests by +17.4 PPG while outgaining them by +132.8 net YPG. Troy has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after allowing at least 37 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after allowing at least 50 points in their last contest. Appalachian State has clinched their date with Lafayette next week in the Sun Belt Conference championship game next Saturday — but they need to win this game to secure hosting that game. The Mountaineers also have a chance to represent the Group of Five schools in their automatic bid for a New Year’s Six Bowl — so they will have much to play for in this contest. Yet the pressure of the moment might put this team in a difficult situation. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while they outgained Texas State last week by +260 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. 

FINAL TAKE: Troy has the talent to hang with the Mountaineers as they crushed the lone team to beat Appalachian State this year by a whopping 49-28 margin. The Trojans should put up plenty of points as they have not scored at least 30 points only twice this season. Things could have been much different for this Troy team that has lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. The opportunity to pull the upset offers the Trojans not only redemption from last week but a sixth win on the season to become bowl eligible while also giving them a measure of revenge from their 21-10 loss to the Mountaineers last season. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). THE SITUATION: Virginia (8-3) has won three straight games after their blowout 55-27 win over Liberty last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Virginia Tech (8-3) has won three games in a row with their 28-0 win over Pittsburgh last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The winner of this game between these two teams with 5-2 conference records wins the Coastal Division and will advance to the ACC Championship Game next week. Virginia is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cavaliers raced out to a 24-14 halftime lead in that contest against the Flames — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Virginia is tough to beat when they get their offense cranking given the consistency of their defense. The Cavaliers rank 22nd in the nation by allowing only 323.2 total YPG. Virginia stays at home for this rivalry game where they are a perfect 6-0 while scoring 41.2 PPG. They are outscoring their guests by +20.0 PPG at home while outgaining them by +97.2 net YPG. The Cavaliers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last three games, Virginia is scoring 42.0 PPG while averaging a robust 476.3 total YPG. Under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall, the Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 10 points to an ACC rival in their last game. The Hokies have pitched two straight shutouts but these were not against the most powerful offenses in the league against the Panthers and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech held Pittsburgh to just 177 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. But this remains a team that is allowing 394.0 total YPG in their four road games which is why they are being outgained by -24.0 net YPG away from home. The Hokies only generated 263 total yards last week in the win with redshirt sophomore quarterback Hendon Hooker passing for 153 yards. But Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. The Hokies offense is averaging just 381.4 total YPG which is 86th in the nation. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has dominated this series having won fifteen meetings in a row going back to 2003. The Hokies pulled off a 34-31 upset win over the Cavaliers last year as a 5.5-point favorite. But with Virginia Tech feeling as much pressure in this game as the Cavs — look for the home dog to finally earn a big win in this rivalry (but take the points for some insurance). 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (310) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. And while the Falcons surrendered 446 yards to the Buccaneers last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on Thursday Night Football. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. The Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average.

FINAL TAKE: This is the Saints’ fourth straight game against an NFC South opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least their last two games against a divisional rival. New Orleans will want to avenge their 26-9 loss at home to the Falcons back on November 10th — but Atlanta can play loose with the opportunity to play the role of spoiler once again to their arch rival. Expect a close game. 10* NFL New Orleans-Atlanta NBC-TV Special with Atlanta Falcons (310) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while New Orleans averaged 418 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.33 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Saints will look to run the ball more in this rematch of their 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta back on November 10th. New Orleans only ran the ball 11 times in that game with Drew Brees since commenting that the offense needs more balance this time around. Running the ball will not only burn more time off the clock but it will help the Saints defense that surrendered more than 300 yards offense in that game for the first time in five contests. New Orleans then gave up 351 yards last week to the Panthers — but the Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for the New Orleans defense is that they will get cornerback Marshon Lattimore who has missed the last few games since being injured in that first encounter with the Falcons where he exited the game holding Julio Jones without a catch. He will help a defense that still ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing 321.3 total YPG. But the Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Atlanta did allow 446 yards last week to the Bucs, they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Falcons have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. The Under is also 7-0-1 in the Saints’ last 8 games played on a Thursday — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games played on Thursdays. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (311) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (312). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (4-7) has lost four of their last five games with their 58-37 loss to LSU back on November 16th as a 21.5-point underdog. Mississippi State (5-6) has won two of their last three games with their 45-7 win over Abilene Christian last Saturday as a 37-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi has nothing to play for but pride as well as spoiling the bowl plans of their arch-rival. This is a similar setup to Northern Illinois’ upset win over Western Michigan on Tuesday. Expect this Rebels team to play inspired football. They have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Ole Miss has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. And while the Rebels surrendered 716 total yards to the Tigers’ powerful offense, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Mississippi is better than their losing record — they are outgaining their opponents by +25.1 net YPG but have been snake-bit by losing all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. The Rebels have been clicking as of late under offensive coordinator’s Rich Rodriguez’s run-oriented spread offense. They have averaged 495.3 total YPG over their last three games after ripping the LSU defense for a whopping 614 yards of offense. Ole Miss has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against SEC opponents. Mississippi State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they gained 577 yards last week against an FCS opponent, Mississippi State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs host this game but they are just 3-3 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by just +2.5 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Look for a close game that Ole Miss has the opportunity to pull the outright upset in the Egg Bowl. 10* CFB Ole Miss-Mississippi State ESPN Special with the Mississippi Rebels (311) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 13-9 loss in New England on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 20-3 win over Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas is feeling the heat this week with owner (and general manager!) Jerry Jones making his frustration with the coaching of Jason Garrett after the loss to the Patriots last week. Expect this team to play with a sense of urgency in this game. Many pundits have noted that the Cowboys are 0-4 this season in their four games against teams with a winning record. However, these “experts” are not observing that Dallas has actually outgained these four winning teams by +84.2 net YPG. The Cowboys outgained the Patriots last week by +39 net yards. Dallas also outgained Minnesota by +228 net yards while winning the yardage battle with Green Bay by +230 net yards. New Orleans is the only one of the four winning teams that the Cowboys have faced that outgained them in yardage — and they only managed to so so by 9 yards. Put another way, if a pundit’s hot take this week had been that Dallas is averaging 396 total YPG against teams with a winning record while holding these winning teams to just 311.8 total YPG, then taking the Cowboys would start to look pretty, pretty, pretty good (to quote Larry David). Garrett’s in-play decision-making is probably not helping matters. Dallas also has the worst Special Teams unit as measured by Football Outsiders (for what that is worth). But they are hosting a Bills team that FO ranks only at 26th in Special Teams this season. Frankly, I suspect Dallas’ 0-4 record versus teams with a winning record speaks largely to some bad luck that is due for regression. The Cowboys have played their last two games on the road — and now they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net YPG while outgaining these opponents by +128.6 net YPG. Dallas’ offense has been tough to stop at home where they are scoring 30.2 PPG while averaging 475.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November. And it is not as if these Bills are battle-tested. Buffalo has only faced one team with a winning record — and they lost to the Patriots at home by a 16-10 score. So the Bills are scoring only 21.0 PPG while averaging 352.7 total YPG — ranking 21st and 18th in the NFL — despite playing ten of eleven teams that do not have winning records. This lack of quality of competition puts the development of quarterback Josh Allen in his second season into a bleaker perspective. Buffalo did outgain the Broncos on the ground last week by 145 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. The Bills win last week came on the heels of their 37-20 win in Miami the previous week as a touchdown favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two straight games where they also covered the point spread as the favorite. This is a challenging situation for this team to be plashing their third game in eighteen days on the road on a short week of rest and preparation. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday. And in their last 13 games played with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: Having watched Dak Prescott a bunch this season, I have been impressed — he passes my “eyeball test” when it comes to whether Dallas should sign him to a long-term deal. The Cowboys are more desperate and have the better quarterback — look for them to secure a decisive win at home. 25* NFL Thursday Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-6) enters this game coming off a 19-14 win over the New York Giants on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Detroit (3-7-1) has lost four straight games with their 19-16 upset loss at Washington as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With Matthew Stafford possibly out the season with his hip injury and backup, Jeff Driskel, dealing with a bad hamstring injury he suffered last week, the Lions will be starting rookie David Blough at quarterback for this game. Blough was a part-time starter last year for Purdue who was drafted by Cleveland before being traded to Detroit in late August. Blough has not played a down in a regular-season game yet. Driskel is available as the backup but tight end Logan Thomas will be the emergency QB if something happens to Blough and Driskel is unavailable. This is yet the next disaster for a disastrous franchise that has signed and cut six other quarterbacks in 2019. It is not just the utter failure of this regime under general manager Bob Quinn to identify and develop backup talent quarterback behind Stafford, it is that they are relying on guys like Driskell and now Blough who did not have the benefit of training camp. Then again, maybe that would not have helped much — the football culture in Detroit is the polar opposite of the one in New England where Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia were imported (because they had once been in the same rook as Bill Belichick). The Lions are also dealing with below replacement level talent at running back after the injury to Kerryon Johnson. They did manage 364 yards last week against the hapless Skins in that losing effort — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Detroit defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 321.7 total YPG which is -74.5 net YPG below their season average. But the Lions are scoring just 18.7 PPG in those three games before relying today on the guy who could not beat out Elijah Sindelar for the starting gig at Purdue last year. Detroit has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight contests, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least five straight games. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games against fellow opponents from the NFC North, Detroit has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Chicago has played 6 straight games Under the Total against divisional opponents. The Bears have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chicago offense is also a mess under the regressing Mitchell Trubisky — they are scoring only 15.3 PPG while averaging 276.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Bears defense has stepped up in their last three games by allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 294.0 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Bears go on the road where they are scoring just 17.8 PPG along with averaging 247.6 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 5 games in November, the Bears have played all 5 games Under the Total. Furthermore, while Chicago has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total after the Bears won the first meeting between these two teams on November 12th by a 20-13 score. With this game being played on a short week with an early afternoon start, expect lots of stalled drives and mostly field goal attempts. Even with the low number, take the Under. 10* NFL Chicago-Detroit Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (4-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 45-17 upset loss to Eastern Michigan last Tuesday as a 3.5-point favorite. Western Michigan (7-4) has won three straight games with their 37-34 win in overtime at Ohio two Tuesdays ago as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos need to win tonight’s game to clinch a spot in the Mid-American Conference championship game as the winner of the West Division — so this team will be feeling the pressure to succeed. But Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less to a MAC foe. This team has had an extra week to rest and prepare for this crucial game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after their bye week. Western Michigan has only won once away from home this season in five games — they are being outscored on the road by -12.8 PPG due to their defense surrendering 40.4 PPG along with 518.0 total YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois will have a losing season under first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. This game is about their pride and the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. The Huskies can also take some solace in the opportunity to avenge their 28-21 upset loss at Western Michigan last season. Northern Illinois has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Despite last week’s loss, Northern Illinois is still outscoring their visitors at home by +7.0 PPG while outgaining them by +94.7 net YPG. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting 7 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan has not won in Dekalb since 2007 — they are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Huskies while failing to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played at Northern Illinois. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite. Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game by at least two touchdowns. Their win over the Texans came on the heels of a 49-13 win at Cincinnati — and Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, the Ravens have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. With Baltimore averaging 42.3 PPG over their last three games, it is certainly very tempting to expect another higher-scoring game from them tonight. But the Ravens have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. While Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense is getting most of the attention, the Ravens’ defense has been playing quite well as of late. Baltimore has held its last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 293.7 total YPG. The Ravens have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Rams are scoring 24.3 PPG, Baltimore has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 24 PPG. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a points spread victory. Head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. This will likely continue to be the strategy tonight to keep Jackson off the field for the Ravens. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home this week where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: While the Ravens lead the NFL by scoring 34.1 PPG, the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 27 PPG. And while Baltimore averages 24.3 first downs per game along with controlling the clock for 34.36 minutes per game, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 32 Minutes Per Game while gaining at least 21 first downs per game. 10* NFL Baltimore-LA Rams ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a handicapper play tonight — with the public and the so-called “sharps” on the side of the Ravens, this appears to be a situation where taking the contrarian route will prove to be fruitful. Los Angeles has been playing better football as of late. They have outscored their last three opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining these foes by +39.3 net YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The conventional wisdom on the Rams has been their play-action offense has been slowed down since the tail end of last season when defenses started playing 6-1 fronts. But head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. A commitment to running the football has many non-tangible advantages (that continue to elude the football analytics community). Run-blocking is an easier skill to accomplish — so more running helps to put a struggling offensive line in a better position to succeed. With two second-year players entering the starting lineup this season, the play of the offensive line has been an issue. More running of the football also decreased the pressure and expectations on quarterback Jared Goff. During their three-game losing streak earlier in the season, Goff attempted a combined 117 passes in losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle — and that was simply asking too much of this quarterback. Running the football also burns time off the clock which keeps the team’s defense rested. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Goff will benefit from the return of wide receiver Robert Woods who missed the last few games due to personal issues. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has also been upgraded to probable after getting cleared from the concussion protocol. Moving forward, the Rams have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after having -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Baltimore has looked invincible as of late with wins over Seattle and New England followed up by 36 and 34 point blowout victories over their last two games. The Ravens have covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Baltimore had a 28-10 halftime lead over Cincinnati two weeks ago before taking a 14-0 halftime lead over the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after having double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. The Ravens dominated Houston last week by generating 25 first downs while holding the ball for 36:19 minutes and totaling 491 yards of offense. But Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. The Ravens also held the Texans to just 110 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore has been vulnerable against opposing passing attacks as they are allowing 238.8 passing YPG which is 17th in the NFL. And while Baltimore has only allowed 20 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last two opponents to 14 or fewer points.

FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have not looked as formidable this season as they did last year in making their Super Bowl run, they still are loaded with talent on both sides of the football. And they have plenty of big-game experience. Look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to dial-up a scheme that slows down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites. San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. San Francisco misses the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander who suffered a season-ending chest injury at the beginning of the month. The Niners have allowed 26.0 PPG over their last three games which is over 10 PPG above their 15.5 PPG season average. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight on the other side of the ball with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. San Francisco has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as the favorite. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have also played 18 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing their last game at home. And while the Packers have played two straight Unders, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Packers did give up 401 total yards against the Panthers — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also allowed their four home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG — that helps explain why they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. In an expected close game, look for a back-and-forth game that will finish above the number. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites. Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: It is foolish to finish handicapping many of these NFL games without first getting the final M*A*S*H* unit reports for both teams. Philadelphia was tempting to me this afternoon — but they simply lacked the reliable healthy targets on offense to make that a worthwhile play even with the avalanche of public money going on the Seahawks. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers will look to run the ball more tonight after they attempted only 19 rushes for 34 yards last week. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they enjoy a situational advantage by playing at home for their third straight week. The Niners are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +14.4 net PPG due to their stifling defense that limits their guests to just 17.8 PPG along with only 250.2 total YPG. Green Bay is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye week. This team traveled just yesterday to the west coast from Milwaukee with head coach Matt Nagy not trusting his players to not party all night as they did in their trip to Los Angeles where they preceded to lay an egg against the Chargers. Don’t be surprised if this team struggles with jet lag. More importantly, one of the reasons we took the Chargers in that game three weeks ago was that the underlying members are not great for this team cruising with just two losses. Five of their wins are by one scoring possession — and the Packers are actually being outgained this season by -18.7 net YPG which usually translates into a 4-6 record after ten games. And while Green Bay is 3-1 on the road, they are being outgained by a whopping 399 to 276.5 yardage margin in those four games. Furthermore, the Packers are being outgained by 78.0 net YPG over their last three contests. Somehow this team continues to win despite leading the league with 2 false starts on offense.

FINAL TAKE: The challenging travel arrangements for the Packers compounds the fact that this is the team’s fourth road game in their last five games. That is not a good sign for a team that faces an opponent that will look to out-muscle them in the trenches. Green Bay is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-4) has won three of their last four games after their 35-27 win in Detroit last week as a 7.5-point favorite against the Lions. New England (9-1) returns home after playing their last two games on the road which culminated in a 17-10 win at Philadelphia last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have now covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering point spread expectations in three of their last four games. Dallas has been an Over machine this season having played three straight Overs as well as in seven of their ten games this season. But these higher scoring games may be, in some part, reflective of their soft schedule that has featured only three teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7 points or less. Additionally, while the Patriots are holding their opponents to just 4.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Cowboys have then played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total when facing a defense that is not allowing more than 5.2 YPA. Dallas has averaged 6.42 and then 7.27 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 22 of the last 31 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6 YPP in two straight games. The Cowboys have an underrated defense that is 7th in the NFL by allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 322.1 total YPG. And while the Patriots only average 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game, Dallas has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams that do not average more than 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game. New England has now covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Patriots’ offensive numbers are propped up a bit with their combination of five defensive and special teams touchdowns. The offense lacks a deep threat — and they will be undermanned with wide receiver Phillip Dorsett out and Mohamad Sanu questionable and limited as he deals with an injury. The Patriots defense has been not quite as spectacular as of late as their strength of schedule has dialed up — but they are still only allowing 20.0 PPG along with 312.3 total YPG over their last three games. They also hold their visitors to just 11.0 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. New England has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points overall. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, the Patriots have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The cold weather will make the Dallas offense uncomfortable — a familiar foe for dome teams. Don’t be surprised if the tone of this game resembles the Cowboys’ 12-10 win in New Orleans earlier this season (although I lean to the Patriots). 10* NFL Dallas-New England Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 37-20 loss to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (4-6) has won two straight games after they defeated Pittsburgh on November 14th by a 21-7 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Browns has been inconsistent this season — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. This team benefitted from playing a depleted Steelers' offense that lost more players in that game after some questionable cheap shots that left Pittsburgh without their three best offensive weapons to complement quarterback Mason Rudolph who was starting in just his second game on the road. The Browns held the Steelers to just 236 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards. Cleveland stays at home where they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Browns have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 26 games in November, Cleveland is just 7-18-1 ATS. Miami should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Despite the tanking strategy by management, rookie head coach Brian Flores has this team playing hard — and they are dangerous with the savvy veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Over their last three games with Fitzpatrick back as the starting quarterback, the Dolphins are scoring a healthy 20.7 PPG. The Miami defense is also playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG along with only 348.3 total YPG which is -46.2 net YPG below their season average. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after the first month of the season. Miami has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 20 road games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. And in their last 5 games against AFC opponents, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be without their top three pass rushers in this game with Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi suspended for this game after last week’s debacle at the end of the Steelers game and with Olivier Vernon out with a knee injury. This takes a big chunk out of the talent edge this Browns’ roster has against many teams. When considering that Cleveland gives back 103 yards in penalties when playing at home, take the double-digit underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). THE SITUATION: New York (2-8) has lost six straight games after their 34-27 upset loss to the Jets two weeks ago back on November 10th as a 3-point favorite. Chicago (4-6) us reeling as well with five losses in their last six games after their 17-7 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are a risky favorite laying close to a touchdown against any NFL opponent right now because of the utter collapse in the confidence of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The third-year pro completed 24 of 43 passes last week for 190 yards while leading his offense to just 267 total yards. Chicago is 28th in the NFL by averaging 16.9 PPG — and they are 30th in the legacy by averaging only 262.7 total YPG. Things do not get better at home where they are scoring only 16.0 PPG while averaging winning just 277.8 total YPG. It has become clear that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in Trubisky as he has taken plays out of the playbook — yet the stubborn offensive “genius” is unwilling to adapt the play-calling to Trubisky’s skill set because (and I am paraphrasing) he was not hired by the franchise to deviate from his basic offensive principles. We all can be geniuses if Patrick Mahomes is the one executing our chicken scratches in the sand. With defenses daring the Trubisky to throw the ball down field as they stack the box, the Bears are scoring a mere 13.7 PPG while averaging 219.0 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago rushed for only 74 yards last week — and they have not topped 81 rushing yards in each of their last three games. That is a bad sign for this team moving forward as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to top 99 rushing yards in their last two games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not averaging more than 225 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The defense has been helping the offense out as of late with the Bears winning the turnover battle in two straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing six games in a row. This team should benefit from their bye week — and head coach Pat Shurmur certainly used the time to vigorously prepare for this game with him being on the hot seat for next season. Expect running back Saquon Barkley to also benefit from the extra week off after he was embarrassed with just one rushing yard against the Jets in 13 carries. The Giants managed only 23 rushing yards overall in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 road games after only rushing for up to 75 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been playing better as of late Since Week Eight, Jones has completed 65.6% of his passes while averaging 280.0 passing YPG with 9 TD passes and only one interception. He has a nice Passer Rating of 100.6 over that span. He will not have tight end Evan Engram for this game as he still deals with his injured foot but wide receiver Sterling Shepard is set to return to the field after clearing the concussion protocol. The Giants have been a good road team relative to the point spread as of late — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home while also covering the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. And while the Giants have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants just 27th in the league in total defense — but facing Trubisky will help them this afternoon. Chicago cannot even bank on piling up field goals with kicker Eddie Pineiro having missed three straight field goals along with four of his last seven attempts. New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Bears — expect a close game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (215) plus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (216). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (8-2) looks to build off their 17-7 win over Fresno State last Friday as a 2-point favorite. Hawaii (7-4) has won their last two games with their 21-7 win at UNLV as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: I have been waiting on two of these late games for updated information. For Boise State-Utah State, I tried to get a better read on the injury front for both teams dealing with injuries at quarterback (and some other key positions) — but with no new information, I am not risking being on the wrong end of who ends up playing and who sits between two head coaches not revealing much about the status of their players. For this San Diego State situation, I wanted to watch line movement (which I often do with some of the plays released close to kickoff). With the Aztecs still listed as a dog in most locations, this is a simple value play behind the strength of Rocky Long’s program. San Diego State is 8th in the nation by allowing 13.7 PPG — and they are 8th in the FBS by allowing just 270.1 total YPG. This is one of the best defensive units Long has had in his nine years with the program. The Aztecs held the Bulldogs last week to just 206 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Defense travels — and San Diego State is 5-0 on the road while holding their home hosts to just 13.6 PPG along with only 294.6 total YPG. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. San Diego State has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on field turf. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They did hold the Rebels to just 237 yards of offense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 total yards. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where are just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: These teams trends indicate this is a solid value play — and the situation is improved with San Diego State motivated to avenge a 31-30 upset loss at home last season to the Rebels as an 18.5-point favorite. The Aztecs are still 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against them in Hawai’i. San Diego State needs this win to clinch their spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game as well. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (215) plus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (196) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (195). THE SITUATION: Missouri (5-5) has lost four games in a row with their 23-6 loss to Florida last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Tennessee (5-5) has won three games in a row with their 17-13 upset win at Kentucky as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: After winning five of their first six games, this Missouri team has fallen off the map by losing their last four games by an average score of 25-7. Part of the problem has been that three of those games were all on the road in a row before they finally returned home last week. Then hosting a talented Gators team was not what the doctor ordered for this team last week who was outgained by -130 net yards. The Tigers’ offense has been the problem as they have averaged only 259 total YPG during their losing streak. Some of that decline can be explained by the hamstring injury to quarterback Kelly Bryant. While the former Clemson quarterback did return last week, he only passed for 204 yards after completing 25 of 39 passes. Perhaps Bryant was rusty — or perhaps he is still slowed with that injury. Or, perhaps facing the Gators stout defense was the problem. Now on Senior Night with this team needing one more victory to become bowl eligible, look for the Tigers to play their best offensive game in their last five games. Remember, they were scoring 38.8 PPG while averaging 474 YPG after their first six games. Missouri has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing four games in a row. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Missouri is much better at home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +21.2 net YPG due to an offense that averages 34.7 PPG along with 427.5 total YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games as the favorite. Missouri has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after pulling the upset two weeks ago. The Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while Tennessee has covered the point spread in five straight games as well as six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Volunteers did surrender a whopping 302 rushing yards to the Wildcats — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 300 rushing yards in their last game. Missouri did average 6.43 Yards-Per-Play despite only being on offense for 18:23 minutes in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP. Now this team stays on the road where they are just 1-2 with an average losing margin of -16.3 net PPG due to their anemic offense that scores just 11.0 PPG in those games while averaging 255.3 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on turf.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri does have a strong defense that should stifle this Volunteers offense. The Tigers are 19th in the nation by allowing just 19.5 PPG — and they also rank 9th in total defense by giving up just 297.6 total YPG. Tennessee scores only 23.9 PPG while averaging 343.5 total YPG which is 101st and 109th in the nation. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the  Missouri Tigers (196) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (195). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (5-5) has lost four straight games with their 35-34 upset loss at Washington State last week as a 1-point favorite. Oregon (9-1) still has College Football Playoff aspirations after their 34-6 win over Arizona last week as a 27-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks have clinched the Pac-12 North title so they will be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game in two weeks. With the season-ending injury to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon might have the inside track to claim one of the four playoffs spots if they win the rest of their games — but a loss in Tempe who ruin those ambitions. Don’t be surprised if the Ducks feel the pressure in this nationally televised game at night against a feisty Sun Devils team. As it is, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a victory by at least three touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Quarterback Justin Herbert completed 20 of 28 passes last week for 333 yards — but Oregon is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And while the Ducks held the Wildcats to only 240 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Oregon defense has taken a step back over the last month. While allowing just 14.8 PPG and 306.1 total YPG this season which ranks 10th and 14th in the nation, the Ducks have allowed their last three opponents to score 21.7 PPG while averaging 347.0 total YPG. Oregon also allows their home hosts to average 22.0 PPG while averaging 346.5 total YPG. The Ducks have thrived with a +1.30 net turnover margin per game which is tied for second-best in the nation — but the bouncing ball can be fickle especially with the pressure on in hostile environments. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 games as an underdog under head coach Herm Edwards with the Sun Devils pulling off six straight upset victories. This team has been a double-digit underdog three times in those games with them finished 2-1 ATS while upsetting Michigan State this season as a +15.5 point underdog. Additionally, since 2014, Arizona State has been a double-digit do eleven times — and they have covered the point spread 9 times while pulling off the outright upset six times. The Sun Devils should respond well from their disappointing loss last week as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by 3 points or less on the road. Arizona State has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points. The Sun Devils should be able to keep up with the Ducks with their offense that has averaged 30.7 PPG over their last three games. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels experienced some growing pains against the outstanding Utah defense four games — but he has since completed 69% of his passes with 9 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his three games since that start.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a close game with the Sun Devils in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 34-27 loss at Penn State as a 15-point underdog. Michigan (8-2) has won three games in a row with their 44-10 win at home against Michigan State as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a challenging sandwich game for the Wolverines where they may be caught dealing with the emotional letdown of their big in-state rivalry game with the Spartans while possibly looking ahead to their showdown with Ohio State next week. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games preceding their big rivalry game with the Buckeyes — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in these last three situations under head coach Jim Harbaugh. That win against Sparty came on the heels of their 38-7 win at Maryland as a three-touchdown favorite — but the Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Michigan has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least five of their last six games. The Wolverines offense has played better as of late — whether as a result of a better understanding of rookie offensive coordinator Josh Gattis’ principles and/or the improved health of quarterback Shea Patterson who was banged up early in the season. Patterson completed 24 of 33 passes last week for 384 yards — but not only has Michigan failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 375 yards in their last game. The Wolverines have scored at least 38 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight contests. The Michigan defense has also played well as they have not allowed more than 14 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing at least 14 points in three straight contests. Now the Wolverines go back on the road where their scoring drops to 28.7 PPG. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Peyton Ramsey was very effective last week as the new starting quarterback after the season-ending injury to Michael Penix, Jr. Ramsey completed 31 of 41 passes for 371 yards against the Nittany Lions’ defense while leading the Hoosiers to 462 yards of offense. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards. This is a dangerous team in the third season under head coach Tom Allen. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against ranked opponents under Allen but remain hungry to pull the straight-up upset having lost their last seventeen games against ranked foes. The Hoosiers are balanced on both sides of the football as they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 448.0 total YPG while also ranking 18th in the nation by allowing just 316.3 total YPG. They return home where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG due to an offense that scores 33.0 PPG. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: It is Senior Day in Bloomington with the Hoosiers honoring sixteen seniors whose career will be capped by pulling the upset this afternoon. The Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Indiana which includes a loss in Ann Arbor in overtime in Allen’s first year with the program. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Year with the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (113) plus the points versus Wyoming Cowboys (114). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (4-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 38-21 loss at home to the Air Force as a 10-point underdog. Wyoming (6-4) has lost their last two games with their 26-21 loss at Utah State last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State should respond with a strong effort after their bad loss last week as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread setback. Junior quarterback Patrick O’Brien did have a good game against the Falcons as he completed 28 of 43 passes for 347 passes in the loss. Colorado State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. O’Brien is leading an offense that is 12th in the nation by averaging 315.7 passing YPG — and he should have success with his arm against a Cowboys defense that is allowing 282.1 passing YPG which is 120th in the FBS. Colorado State goes back on the road where they are scoring 33.0 PPG while averaging a robust 455.4 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against conference opponents. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a Mountain West Conference rival. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. Wyoming was fortunate to be in as close a game as they were with the Aggies last week as they were outgained by -103 net yards after surrendering 448 total yards. The Cowboys scored on a 10-yard interception which helped them keep it closer than expected. But Wyoming still committed four turnovers in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after committing at least four turnovers in their last game. Moving forward, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Despite their 6-4 record, the Cowboys are being outgained by -26.4 net YPG this season. The Rams, on the other hand, are outgaining their opponents by +69.3 net YPG. The offensive prowess of this Colorado State team should keep this game close. 10* CFB Colorado State-Wyoming ESPN2 Special with the Colorado State Rams (113) plus the points versus Wyoming Cowboys (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (110) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (109). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Texans should respond with a strong effort after their embarrassing effort on Sunday as they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They also are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games are failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 18 of 29 passes against the Ravens for just 169 yards in that game with Houston only finishing with 110 net passing yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to pass for at least 150 passing yards. Now the Texans return home where they are 3-1 this season where they are outgaining their opponents by +44.5 net YPG. Houston has been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. They were gouged for 263 rushing yards to the Ravens’ rushing attack last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And while Houston has given up 408.3 total YPG over their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at last 400 YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home. And while the Colts have won four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. QB Jacoby Brissett completed 15 of 24 passes for 148 passing yards last week — and Indy has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after a two-game homestand. And while Indianapolis has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 win over the Texans back on October 20th in Indianapolis where they were 1.5-point favorites. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Houston Fox-TV Special with the Houston Texans (110) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played been playing defense as of late. They are 11th in the NFL by allowing 325.6 total YPG but over their last three games that mark has lowered to just 270.0 total YPG — and they have held their last there opponents to only 18.3 PPG. But the Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Indianapolis has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Texans managed only 232 yards last week — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Houston has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. The Texans are scoring just 20.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 343.3 total YPG with both marks far below their 24.5 PPG and 380.2 total YPG season averages. Now Houston returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Texans have been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. Houston has allowed 408.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games against AFC South opponents, Houston has played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 victory over Houston back on October 20th. But despite that game finished above the 46.5 point Total, these team two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (111) and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (112). THE SITUATION: NC State (4-6) has lost four games in a row with their 34-20 loss to Louisville last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Georgia Tech (2-8) has lost three straight games after their 45-0 loss at home to Virginia Tech last Saturday as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolfpack are relying on a redshirt freshman quarterback in Devin Leary as they hope to make it to a bowl game for a sixth straight season. NC State is scoring only 22.9 PPG this year which is 104th in the nation — and they are scoring just 18.5 PPG while averaging 342.5 total YPG in their four games on the road. Leary will likely struggle in this nationally televised game on the road tonight behind a team that has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total away from home. The Wolfpack has also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the NC State has played 19 of their last 26 games under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 22 games in conference play, the Wolfpack have played 15 of these games Under the Total. Georgia Tech is also relying on a redshirt freshman in quarterback James Graham who hit rock bottom after completing just 7 of 14 passes for 43 yards before being benched on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets trailed by a 21-0 score to the Hokies before even getting their first 1st down. Georgia Tech has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Toal after a loss by at least four touchdowns in their last game. The Yellow Jackets stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. Georgia Tech has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. This Yellow Jackets team has struggled to move the football in the transition from a spread triple-option attack to a pro-style formation in the first year under head coach Geoff Collins. Georgia Tech is scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging 290.2 total YPG which is tied for 124th and 125th in the FBS. In their five games at home, the Yellow Jackets are scoring only 14.0 PPG along with just 241.4 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Tech has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night — and the Under is an incredible 19-1-1 in NC State’s last 21 games played on a Thursday. 10* CFB NC State-Georgia Tech ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (111) and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (105) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (106). THE SITUATION: Toledo (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 31-28 upset loss at home to Northern Illinois as a 1.5-point favorite. Buffalo (5-5) had their three-game winning streak end last Thursday in their 30-27 upset loss at Kent State where they were a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulls were leading 24-6 to the Golden Flashes in the 4th quarter last week in a game I gave up on (we had Kent State) — yet they collapsed to lose that game. Not only did that loss help Miami (OH) clinch the Mid-American Conference East Division but it put Buffalo’s bowl aspirations in jeopardy as they will likely have to win their last two games to reach seven wins to ensure a bowl bid this year. This is a situation ripe for a big emotional hangover after last week’s disappointing finish. As it is, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a loss by 7 points or less against a Mid-American Conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less to conference opponent. Buffalo did rush for 245 yards last week in the loss but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. But now the Bulls return home where they are averaging only 346.7 total YPG which is -21.3 net YPG below their season average which ranks 98th in the nation. Buffalo is 5th in the nation in run defense by allowing just 88.4 rushing YPG. They have not allowed more than 119 rushing yards in each of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least three straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 32 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Toledo should respond better to their upset loss last week with one win ensure they will be invited to a bowl game. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. Furthermore, Toledo has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Rockets did generate 508 yards last week while outgaining the Huskies by +64 net yards. Toledo has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rockers have outgained their last three opponents by +56.7 net YPG due to their offense averaging 498.3 total YPG. Junior quarterback Eli Peters continues to improve — he completed 26 of 38 passes for 300 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions last week against Northern Illinois.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Expect a close game with the Rockets having the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* CFB Toledo-Buffalo ESPN2 Special with the Toledo Rockets (105) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (103) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (5-5) had their two-game losing streak with their 42-14 win at Akron last Tuesday as a 17-point favorite. Northern Illinois (4-6) has won two of their last three games with their 31-28 win at Toledo last Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Huskies remain alive in the Mid-American Conference West division race as they tied for third place with a 3-3 record but just one game behind Central Michigan and Western Michigan with a game with the Broncos on deck next week. Northern Illinois may get caught looking ahead to that important showdown. As it is, the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Northern Illinois defense has shown cracks as of late — the Rockets generated 508 yards of offense last week after the Huskies surrendered 627 yards the week before against Central Michigan. Northern Illinois allowed those two opponents to average 8.20 and 6.68 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. The Huskies have not done well when favored as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Eastern Michigan may be out of the MAC West race with their 2-4 record but they remain motivated to win one more game to become bowl eligible for the third time in four seasons. The Eagles have been capable road warriors as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games away from home. Led by senior quarterback Mike Glass III, Eastern Michigan is scoring 28.8 PPG whole averaging 403.0 total YPG in their six games on the road. Led by a rushing attack that churned out 252 yards last week, the Eagles generated 498 total yards of offense. Eastern Michigan has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Eagles are dangerous underdogs as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road when getting the points. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played at Northern Illinois. They should revel in the opportunity to spoil the Huskies’ MAC championship game aspirations. 10* CFB Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois ESPN2 Special with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (103) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-6) has lost their last two games are their 37-34 upset loss at home to Western Michigan last Tuesday as a 1.5-point favorite. Bowling Green (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-3 loss at Miami (OH) as a 17-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats are looking to salvage their season with a potential bowl bid still after getting upset in two straight games by a combined 6 points. Their loss to the Broncos finished well above the 59 point Total — and they have played 29 of their last 43 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Ohio has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Bobcats allowed 322 passing yards in that game to the Broncos — but they have then seen the Under go 24-10-1 in their last 35 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite that effort last week, Ohio has been playing better defense as of late. They have held their last three opponents to 368.7 total YPG which is -63.9 net YPG below their season average. Now the Bobcats go on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 359.5 total YPG — and those numbers are -5.8 PPG and -51.3 net YPG below their season averages. Ohio also holds their home hosts to just 23.5 PPG which is -6.2 PPG below their season defensive average. The Bobcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Ohio did rush for 216 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bobcats average 6.89 Yards-Per-Play in that contest — and they have played 25 of their last 36 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in Ohio’s last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Bowling Green has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bobcats have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. Despite last week’s result, the Falcons have also played a bit better on the defensive side of the football. While Bowling Green ranks 105th in the nation by allowing 441.1 total YPG, they have held their last three opponents to just 366.3 total YPG. The Falcons have played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Bowling Green does play much better defense at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 313.6 total YPG in their five games this season. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. The bigger issue for Bowling Green is their lack of productivity on offense as they rank 125th in the nation by scoring only 16.1 PPG. The Falcons have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score at least 14 points in their last contest. Bowling Green was trailing by a 37-3 score at halftime of that game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after trailing by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (475). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering an upset loss. Additionally, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a close loss by 3 points or less. Los Angeles is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a point spread setback. The Chargers are playing better football as they get relatively healthy and running back Melvin Gordon gets himself into playing shape after ending his contractual holdout. Gordon comes off his best game this season with 108 rushing yards against the Raiders. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including covering the point spread in these last five situations. Kansas City has failed to cove the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The suspect Chiefs defense gave up 371 yards to the Titans last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Kansas City is 23rd in the NFL by allowing 369.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have surrendered 29.7 PPG over their last three games. Kansas City’s biggest vulnerability with their defense is in stopping the run as they are allowing 148.1 rushing YPG which is 30th in the NFL. The Chiefs lean on Patrick Mahomes to bail their defense out — and they have averaged 453.5 YPG over their last two contests. But Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last two games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Week 10 through 13.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers practiced all week at the football facilities at the Air Force Academy in Colorado where the altitude is similar to what they will experience tonight in Mexico City. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs struggle a bit in the second half of this game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Kansas City-LA Chargers ESPN Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. But Los Angeles has also averaged only 329.3 total YPG over their last three games which is over 25 YPG below their season average. The Chargers’ star left tackle, Russell Okung has been downgraded to doubtful for this game with his ankle injury. That is not a good turn of events for a team that is just 21st in the NFL by averaging 20.7 PPG. Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. The Chargers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Kansas City had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Chargers’ game plan will surely be to run the football against the Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 148.1 rushing YPG. LA running the football will burn time off the clock while keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Kansas City allowed the Titans to rush for 225 yards last week — and they have then played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to rush for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played nine straight games where no more than 50 combined points have been scored. The Chiefs have played three of their last six games where no more than 49 combined points were scored. With this game being played in altitude of 7200 square feet, the Chargers will be looking to slow this game down to a crawl to tire out the Kansas City defense. They may not be able to stop down the Mahomes — but fewer possessions for the Chiefs offense should help this game finish below the number. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (473). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should rebound with a strong effort. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams rushed for only 88 yards in that game against the Steelers — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after win by no more than 7 points against an NFC North rival. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Chicago defense allowed a Lions; offense playing with the injured Stafford to gain 357 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears’ rushing attack did not do much to help Trubisky out last week as they managed only 81 yards on the ground. Chicago has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards. Furthermore, the Bears only gained 164 yards the previous week in Philadelphia against the Eagles — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Sean McVay and the rest of this Rams team will have revenge on their mind from their embarrassing 15-6 loss in the frigid December weather in Chicago at night last season. It was just a short week ago where the conventional wisdom had evolved that the Rams had turned the corner from their slow start with a two-game winning streak. Look for LA to earn a decisive victory. 10* NFL Chicago-LA Rams NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has clearly lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. Chicago was outgained by 309 net yards in their previous game against Philadelphia — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards in two straight contests. The Bears have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears are still playing good defense this season — they rank 4th in the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG and they have held their last three opponents to just 320.3 total YPG. Los Angeles managed only 306 yards last week in their loss at Pittsburgh. Jared Goff completed only 22 of 41 passes for 243 yards in that loss with him struggling behind an injured offensive line. The Rams are also missing wide receiver Brandin Cooks which allows opposing defenses to double cover Cooper Krupp who did not have a reception last season. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Chicago’s 15-6 upset victory over the Rams last December 9th. That was the game where Bears’ defensive coordinator installed a 6-1 defensive front with six defenders on the line stymying the Rams play-action pass attack. The Sean McVay offense has not been quite the same since that contest in this copycat league. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: New England (8-1) returns to the field again after their bye week which came after their first loss of the season in Baltimore by a 37-20 score. Philadelphia (5-4) also comes off their bye week as well after their 22-14 win over Chicago as a 5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have worked on getting his defense back into shape after Lamar Jackson and the Ravens rushing attack put up 30 points against them (with 7 points coming from a defensive touchdown by Baltimore). The Patriots have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Additionally, New England has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New England remains the best statistical defense in the league as they are allowing 10.9 PPG and just 249.3 total YPG which are both best in the NFL. The Patriots are also 2nd in the NFL by scoring 30.0 PPG — but those numbers include six non-offensive touchdowns from special teams and their defense. Tellingly, New England is 15th in the NFL by averaging just 366.8 total YPG — and they are averaging just 342.4 total YPG on the road and only 327.7 total YPG over their last three games. Tom Brady lacks credible deep threats from his wide receivers — and this is allowing opponents to stack the box to put more pressure on their ground game. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Philadelphia is also a team that has been limited on offense given the lack of deep threats given the injury abdominal injury to DeSean Jackson that has placed him on IR. The Eagles are just 19th in the NFL by averaging 347.0 total YPG. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after their bye week. The Philly defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 273.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have also played 9 of their last 111 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL New England-Philadelphia CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (456) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (455). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last week as a 5-point underdog. Atlanta (2-7) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 26-9 loss at New Orleans as a 14-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort as they have consistently done under the leadership of head coach Ron Rivera. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 100 games after a loss on the road including covering point spread expectations in seven of these last ten situations. And while Carolina has won five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last three games but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. Quarterback Kyle Allen completed 28 of 43 passes for 307 yards against the Packers while displaying grit by almost leading his team to victory in the snowy conditions at Lambeau Field before seeing his last-minute drive fall one yard short as time expired. Carolina gained 401 yards against Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. And while Carolina endured a -2 net turnover margin, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Atlanta will likely suffer a letdown after their emotional upset win in the Big Easy last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. This team stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games when playing at least two straight games away from home. The Falcons running game is in shambles with Devonta Freeman out for this game with his ankle injury. With his primary backup, Ito Smith, on Injured Reserve, it looks like the primary ball-handling chores will go to Brian Hill whose experience escapes me right now (and no time to check …). Quarterback Matt Ryan will also be without the most productive tight end in fantasy football in this game in Austin Hooper — and remember that this team traded away Mohamad Sanu which leaves the supporting cast with this loaded offense suddenly a bit thin. The Falcons defense played their best game of the season last week by limiting the Saints to just 310 yards after head coach Dan Quinn handing over playcalling duties to his assistant coaches (Raheem Morris is now responsible for calling the plays on passing downs). That one trick pony worked as a surprise last week against New Orleans but now Rivera and company can adapt. Atlanta is 28th in the NFL by allowing 28.8 PPG. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won six of the last seven meetings between these two teams — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Carolina against the Panthers. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Carolina Panthers (456) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak two weeks ago with their 24-19 win over Cleveland as a 4-point underdog. Minnesota (7-3) has won five of their last six games with their 28-24 upset win last Sunday night in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 11-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while the Denver defense surrendered 351 yards in that game, the Under is then 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie QB Brandon Allen was solid but unspectacular in his first career start by completing 12 of his mere 20 passes in that game for 193 yards. I expect him to struggle against this Panthers defense that now can study him on tape executing the Denver offense in a regular-season game. The Broncos are scoring only 16.2 PPG on the road — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games on the road. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after their bye week. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as the underdog. Minnesota’s defense will be make it tough on Allen — they are holding their visitors to just 13.7 PPG along with only 315.7 total YPG. The Vikings have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Vikings’ game with the Cowboys finished Over the 48.5 point total with all but one scoring drive in that game stalling for a field goal. But Minnesota has then played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Kirk Cousins targeted 16 of his 23 completions last week to tight ends or running backs with Adam Thielen on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He led the Vikings’ offense to 364 total yards in that game — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Thielen is once again out for this game — and Minnesota is facing a tough Denver defense that is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 309.7 total YPG. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (7-2) saw their six-game winning streak snapped last week with their surprising 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 14-point favorite. Tampa Bay (3-6) ended their four-game losing streak last week with their 30-27 win at home over Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is, in part, a contrarian play after considering that the Buccaneers have played seven straight Overs entering this game. Tampa Bay did generate 457 yards last week but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Buccaneers have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tampa Bay is allowing 32.0 PPG which is the worst in the NFL — but this defense also leads the NFL by giving up just 77.8 rushing YPG and that is not just about the opponents not rushing very much as opposing rushers are averaging just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. I suspect that Sean Paton will want to get his running game going after the Saints managed only 310 total yards last week. The New Orleans offense was only on the field for 26:14 minutes in that game with Drew Brees attempting 45 passes (for 287 yards) — so the Saints will likely try to re-establish their commitment to running the football to help their defense. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while the Saints are averaging 414.7 total YPG over their last three games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. This team has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The New Orleans defense ranks 5th in the league by holding their opponents to just 316.6 total YPG. And in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, the Saints have played 9 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 15 of their last 22 meetings Under the Total — and they have played five of their last six encounters in Tampa Bay Under the Total. With the number in the 50 range, expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in London with their 26-3 loss to Houston as a 1-point favorite. Indianapolis (5-4) has lost two straight games with their 16-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The team does get Jacoby Brissett back under center after he missed the last two games. But he will be without his best weapon in wide receiver T.Y. Hilton who is out for this game — and his absence has had a significant impact on the ability of this offense to move down the field. The Colts defense has been keeping this team competitive — they have held their last five opponents to just 18.2 PPG with that number including an interception returned for a touchdown which was not the fault of the defense. Indianapolis is 10th in the NFL by allowing just 327.6 total YPG — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average just 260.3 total YPG. The Colts stay at home where they have played 21 of their last 31 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 15 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 4 straight games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Jaguars have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss as the favorite in their last contest. The team gets back Nick Foles at quarterback in this game — but it is not as if Gardner Minshew was playing bad for this team since Week One. He threw for 309 yards last week while leading an offense that generated 309 yards against the Texans — but the Jags have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 14 points in their last game. Foles threw only 11 passes in Week One before he suffered his injury. Now this team goes back not he road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. This team will still rely on running back Leonard Fournette and their strong defense that has held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with only 304.7 total YPG. Moving forward, the Jaguars have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: These teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after last year’s 6-0 win by Jacksonville back on December 21st. While I expect more scoring than that, these two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Indy. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (361) and the California Golden Bears (362). THE SITUATION: USC (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 31-26 win at Arizona State last Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Cal (5-4) snapped a four-game losing streak last week with their 33-20 upset win over Washington State as an 8.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Cal has also now played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total in Pac-12 play. The Golden Bears rank 25th in the nation by allowing only 20.7 PPG this season. They stay at home where they are limiting their visitors to just 19.0 PPG along with only 332.6 total YPG. But Cal is struggling to move the football as they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging a mere 263.7 total YPG. Sophomore quarterback Chase Garbers has been upgraded to probable with his shoulder injury that has kept him out but head coach Justin Wilcox has been cagey regarding if he will take the place of UCLA graduate transfer Devon Modster who led the team to victory last week. Either way, both quarterbacks are combining to average just 182.9 passing YPG which is 109th in the nation. Overall, the Golden Bears are 119th in the nation by averaging just 308.6 total YPG. Cal has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Golden Bears have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. USC raced out to a 28-13 lead last week against the Sun Devils — and they have played a decisive 45 of their last 67 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game including playing three of their last four of these situations Under the Total. The Trojans held Arizona State to just 47 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. But while USC did surrender 292 passing yards to the Sun Devils in that game, the Under is then 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. The Trojans stay on the road where they are scoring 26.8 PPG which is -3.8 PPG below their season average. Additionally, USC has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: Cal won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 15-14 score. These two teams have played 16 of their last 21 encounters Under the Total including 6 of their last 7 clashes Under the Total when playing in Berkeley. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (361) and the California Golden Bears (362). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). THE SITUATION: Baylor (9-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 29-23 win in overtime at TCU as a 1-point favorite. Oklahoma (8-1) survived a 42-41 win at home against Iowa State as a 14-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor demonstrated grit to rally from a 9-0 halftime deficit on the road to a good Horned Frogs team before pulling that game out in overtime. The Bears may lose this game — but they will go down fighting in what should be a one-possession game. Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Bears have struggled on offense over the last two weeks by scoring only 26 combined points in regulation over their last two games. But this remains a team that is 26th in the nation by averaging 35.3 PPG — and they score 38.4 PPG at home in Waco while generating 490.6 total YPG. Turnovers have played a role in these last two games as they have given the ball up five times in those contests. They now host this Sooners team that has not earned even one takeaway in their last five games. And what has kept head coach Matt Rhule’s team undefeated this season is the strong play of their defense. Baylor ranks 17th in the nation by allowing only 19.0 PPG — and they are 31st in the nation by allowing just 337.4 total YPG. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. Oklahoma had failed to over the pint spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. The Sooners defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this program in the Lincoln Riley era — and they have allowed 903 yards of offense which has translated into 99 combined points in their last two games. The Cyclones generated 477 yards against them last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. But new concerns have developed with their offense as of late. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has become too reliant on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb as his go-to target — he has caught thirteen balls over the last two weeks — which has made the Riley offense a bit too predictable. The play of the offensive line has not been as strong as in previous seasons either with Hurts facing pressure from opposing pass rushers. Now this team goes on the road where they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games — and they are just 1-3-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with winning record at home. Furthermore, the Sooners are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma is just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games under Riley when favored in a regular-season game. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog in the Rhule era with five of those games resulting in an outright upset victory. The Bears are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as a dog. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). THE SITUATION: Iowa (6-3) saw their two-game losing streak snapped last Saturday with their narrow 24-22 loss at Wisconsin as a 7.5-point underdog. Minnesota (9-0) remained undefeated last week with their 31-26 upset win over Penn State as a 6.5-point home underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: It was tempting for a majority of bettors last week to fade the Golden Gophers considering a slew of factors that had them fortunate to still be unbeaten heading into their showdown with the Nittany Lions. Minnesota had orchestrated a slew of comeback victories albeit against dubious opponents like Fresno State in which they needed double overtime to win that game. Their strength of schedule had been very light with Nebraska possibly being their best opponent (according to the laptops) and Illinois offering their stiffest defensive challenge.
Remarkably, the Golden Gophers had not played a full game against a team that did not need to use their backup quarterback since the second game of the season. But I still considered Minnesota a dangerous home underdog against an (overrated) Penn State team in what was their biggest game yet in the P.J. Fleck era as a head coach. Fleck is a great football coach who has quickly put his stamp on the culture of this Golden Gophers program after previously building Western Michigan into a non-Power Five conference powerhouse. Yet Minnesota was very fortunate to pull off the upset last week as they needed three interceptions in the Red Zone to stifle Nittany Lion drives and overcome getting outgained by -58 net yards. The Minnesota defense was exposed along the way by surrendering a whopping 518 yards at home to the Penn State offense. This Golden Gophers team has now won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But the assignment gets even tougher with this trip to Iowa City to play in Kinnick Stadium where they have not won more than once in the last thirty years. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. The Golden Gophers has had Lady Luck on their side all season — they are 13th in the nation by averaging +0.78 net turnovers per game this year. But the bouncing football can be fickle as to where it travels — especially in hostile environments. Minnesota has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight contests. Iowa is just 1-3 in games decided by one scoring possession — so a few lucky breaks going their way would have dramatically changed the stakes they have in this game. Yet they can still play the role of spoiler which this Hawkeyes program often relishes when playing at home. They return home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a two-game road stand. Iowa plays outstanding defense — they rank 4th in the nation by allowing just 11.7 PPG. They are 10th in the nation in total defense by surrendering only 288.9 total YPG with a balanced unit that is 20th in the FBS against the run (111.3 rushing YPG) and 10th against the pass (177.6 passing YPG). Their three losses have been decided by a mere 14 combined points. They are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +20.0 PPG due to their offense that plays much better in those friendly environments where they are scoring 30.8 PPG along averaging 453.0 total YPG. Iowa has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as the favorite — and they are a perfect 6-0 straight-up while covering the point spread in 5 of those 6 games when favored by no more than 3 points since 2015. The Hawkeyes also do a great job in protecting the football as they have only committed two combined turnovers in their last three-games after turning the ball over once against the Badgers. Iowa has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. And while the Hawkeyes have won the turnover battle in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in at least two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa won last year’s battle for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy with their 48-31 win at Minnesota in a game where junior quarterback Nate Stanley passed for 314 yards with four touchdowns. Stanley will certainly be confident he can lead his team to another victory today. Look for the Gophers’ luck to run out and their bubble to burst. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (377) and the Iowa State Cyclones (378). THE SITUATION: Texas (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 27-24 win over Kansas State as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa State (5-4) has lost two in a row after their narrow 42-41 loss at Oklahoma as a 14-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win. And while Texas has not covered the point spread in three straight games, Texas has played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total after covering the point spread just once in their last four games. The defense has been a disappointment for head coach Tom Herman as they rank 109th in the nation by allowing 447.6 total YPG. But injuries have played a big role in the play of this defense. The Longhorns got safeties Caden Sterns and B.J. Foster back on the field last week — and they limited the Wildcats to just 304 total yards last week in that win. Now Texas looks to get safety Chris Brown and linebacker Jeffrey McCullough back on the field as they return from their respective injuries. That will help this Longhorns team even more than has played a decisive 38 of their last 54 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Texas did generate 477 yards of offense last week but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Longhorns have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total as the underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Over/Under set at 63 or higher. And in their last 30 games played in November, Texas has played 23 of these games Under the Total. Iowa State has seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after a point spread win — and the Under is 18-8-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Cyclones generated 477 yards of offense last week, the Over is then 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and the Over is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. That game with the Sooners flew Over the 71 point Total last week — and Iowa State has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game that combined for at least 70 points. The Cyclones return home where their defense plays better by allowing just 24.4 PPG along with only 346.2 total YPG. They have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the number set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their last 4 meetings Under the Total. 10* CFB Texas-Iowa State FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (377) and the Iowa State Cyclones (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-1) has won three straight games since their loss to South Carolina after their 27-0 shutout victory over Missouri as an 18.5-point favorite last week. Auburn (7-2) has won two of their last three games with their 20-14 win over Ole Miss two weeks ago as a 17-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Georgia has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs sport an elite defense that has not allowed more than 20 points all season. Georgia ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.1 PPG while also ranking 5th in the nation with a total defense of 260.3 YPG. Over their last three games, the Bulldogs are giving up a mere 5.7 PPG along with just 217.7 total YPG. Georgia is growing more and more reliant on their defense as their offense is scoring -4.0 PPG over their last four games than their season average up to that point. The Bulldogs have been exposed in lacking vertical threats in their passing game which has allowed their opponents to push one of their defensive backs into the box. Over their last three games, Georgia is scoring just 24.0 PPG along with averaging only 335.7 total YPG. The Bulldogs have played 4 straight games Under the Total against conference opponents — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Georgia has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as the favorite. Auburn has seen the Under go 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after a point spread win. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix might have played his best game of the season last week by completing 30 of 44 passes for 340 yards while leading the Tigers offense to generate 507 total yards. But Auburn has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Nix has still been up-and-down this season as he is completing only 56.5% of his passes. The Tigers put up big numbers against their weaker competition — but they are scoring only 20 PPG against ranked opponents while scoring just 16.5 PPG in their two losses. This Auburn team is also outstanding on the defensive side of the football. The Tigers rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 17.4 PPG while also ranking 28th in the FBS by giving up only 333.4 total YPG. In their four games at home, they are limiting their visitors to just 14.7 PPG and 286.0 total YPG. Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They held the Rebels two weeks ago to 266 total yards — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Remember, Auburn limited an LSU offense that just torched Alabama to just 23 points. Moving forward, the Under is 23-10-1 in the Tigers’ last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Auburn has played 35 of their last 54 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have defenses that are continuing to improve. Georgia has allowed -4.7 PPG over their last four games while Auburn has given up -4.0 PPG over their last four contests. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (326) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (325). THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-2) takes the field again after their 34-3 win at home over Northwestern two weeks ago as an 8.5-point favorite. Penn State (8-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week with their 31-26 upset loss at Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Nittany Lions had their bubble burst last week with that defeat to the Golden Gophers. As it is, Penn State is 2-12-3 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up loss. The Nittany Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss against a Big Ten foe where they were favored by at least 6 points. Penn State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference rival. I have considered sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford a bit overrated after a soft opening five games to the season that fluffed up his numbers. Clifford completed only 23 of 43 passes last week while throwing three devastating interceptions in the Red Zone. The Nittany Lions have faced three quality defenses over the last three weeks against Michigan, Michigan State, and the Gophers — and they are scoring 27.3 PPG along with averaging 367.7 YPG which is -9.8 PPG and -65.1 YPG below their season average. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in November. Indiana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning four of their last five contests. This team suffered a tough injury with the season-ending shoulder injury to sophomore Michael Penix, Jr. But head coach Tom Allen has a capable backup in junior Peyton Ramsey who made all twelve starts last season for this team. This is a team on the rise under Allen’s leadership who have played Michigan and Ohio State very tough over the last few seasons. The Hoosiers are an ugly 1-48 straight-up in their last forty-nine games against ranked opponents but they are also 7-3 ATS in those last ten opportunities with three straight point spread covers versus ranked opponents. Indiana ranks 33rd in the nation by scoring 33.0 PPG. But what makes this team dangerous is their play on defense as they are allowing only 20.0 PPG which is 23rd in the nation — and they also rank 16th in the nation by allowing only 310.2 total YPG. The Hoosiers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow Big Ten foes.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana is already destined to break their 27-year bowl drought later this season — but this is an opportunity to finally register a signature victory. Penn State may be hungover from their deflating loss last week — and they may be looking ahead to Ohio State next week. 10* CFB Indiana-Penn State ABC-TV Special with the Indiana Hoosiers (326) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (325). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (387) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (388). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-5) has lost four straight games with their 37-34 upset loss at home to Illinois as a 15.5-point favorite last week. Michigan (7-2) comes off a 38-7 win at Maryland two weeks ago as a 21.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State may have hit rock bottom last week by blowing a 31-10 4th quarter lead. But there is nothing like the opportunity to find redemption by playing a bitter rival. As it is, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. If there was a silver lining in that game with the Fighting Illini, it was that Sparty got their offense going by generating 526 yards against a solid Illinois defense. Michigan State scored 28 points in the first half last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after scoring at least 24 first-half points in their last game. Sparty generated 27 first downs last week while controlling the clock for 37:44 minutes in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home — and they have coved the point spread 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 42.5 to 45. Michigan has responded to their 7-point loss at Penn State with a 45-14 win at home against Penn State before last week’s victory. But the Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last two contests by at least four touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 37 points in two straight games. And while Michigan has covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Wolverines return home to the Big House where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings against the Wolverines while pulling the upset eight times. Sparty has also covered the point spread in their last 5 games against Michigan when playing in Ann Arbor. 10* CFB Michigan State-Michigan Fox-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (387) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (316) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (315). THE SITUATION: Marshall (6-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 win at Rice as an 11.5-point favorite back on November 2nd. Louisiana Tech (8-1) has won eight straight games with their 52-17 win over North Texas last Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD MINUS THE POINTS: Upon my first look at this game, this appeared to be a letdown situation for this Louisiana Tech team who has their last four games by more than two touchdowns including a 42-21 win at UTEP two weeks ago. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory over a conference opponent by at least 35 points. Louisiana Tech has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by at least 21 points. And while the Bulldogs held the Mean Green last week to just 74 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing at least 100 rushing yards in their last game. But this situation became worthy of investment after the Louisiana Tech Athletic Department suspended quarterback J’Mar Smith, wide receiver Adrian Hardy, and linebacker James Jackson for internal violation of their guidelines. Hardy is the team’s leading receiver but the loss of Smith is devastating. The three-year starting quarterback was completing 65.1% of his passes with 14 touchdown passes and just four interceptions during his senior year while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt. He will be replaced by redshirt freshman Aaron Allen who has attempted only nine passes this season. Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium for this nationally televised night game was already going to be a difficult assignment before asking their backup quarterback to make his first career start. The Bulldogs average 38.1 PPG this season — but that number drops almost 10 full points to 28.5 PPG in their four games on the road. Louisiana Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 27 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Marshall covered the point spread two weeks ago for just the second time in their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games including covering point spread expectations in five of these last seven situations. The Thundering Herd returns home after the benefit of a bye week where they are 4-1 this season. Marshall is scoring 32.0 PPG at home this year while outgaining their opponents by +76.0 net YPG — so it will be asking a lot of Allen to keep up with the Thundering Herd offense. Marshall is 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams control their fate to win their respective divisions in Conference USA to reach the conference championship game. It is possible that a Marshall victory could set up a rematch of these two teams in that Championship Game. Led by ten-year head coach Doc Holliday, the Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Friday night. 10* CFB Louisiana Tech-Marshall CBS Sports Network Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (316) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There are some situational aspects to this game which I think I give the Browns the edge. However, in what is considered a coin flip outcome by the oddsmakers, I think there are some overwhelming intangibles where the Steelers have the edge. First, Mike Tomlin and his staff have a significant advantage in preparing for this game on a short week. Rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is experiencing growing pains going from a running backs coach at the beginning of last season to now being a deal head coach and offensive coordinator for the first time (for an entire season) this year — and his job is complicated by all the personalities on his roster along with the unreasonable expectations placed on this squad which would be a challenge for even the most savvy veteran NFL coach. Second, Cleveland gives away tons of yardage in their mistakes via penalties. They are averaging nine penalties a game which is accounting for 78 YPG — and they have averaged 10 penalties per game over their last three contests which has accounted for 99 YPG. The Browns have been consistently inconsistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Third, Cleveland’s proclivity to make mistakes extends to turning the ball over — they are averaging 1.9 turnovers per game with a -0.90 net turnover margin per game. The Steelers are second in the league with 26 takeaways which have all taken place after the first week of the season. Pittsburgh averages 2.9 takeaways per game with that number rising to a 3.7 average over their last three games. There is a reason this underachieving franchise is now 5-21-2 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. The Browns are also just 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as the favorite. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as the favorite. And while the Browns gained 368 yards last week against the Bills, they are then just 12-30-4 ATS in their last 46 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh’s winning culture has helped them go 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Thursday night. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The surging Steelers’ defense is holding their opponents to just 16.7 PPG over their last three games along with only 288.0 total YPG over that span. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow opponents from the AFC North. With James Connor returning to the field to jumpstart their running game, look for Pittsburgh to be in position to pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Cleveland Fox-TV Special with Pittsburgh Steelers (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after point spread win — and with Pittsburgh having covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Steelers have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after playing a game against an NFC opponent. This is a team that became a defense-first run team after the season-ending injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steel Curtain defense had been playing better after a slow start — but this unit has gone to another level with the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is allowing only 16.7 PPG along with just 288.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Steelers are scoring only 23.3 PPG while averaging a mere 313.3 total YPG over those last three games. Overall, Pittsburgh is just 28th in the NFL by averaging 288.8 total YPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, this team goes back on the road where their offense struggles even more as they are scoring just 15.3 PPG while averaging 267.7 total YPG in their three games away from home. Surprisingly, this will be Mason Rudolph’s just second start on the road in his career after he completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards in Week Three this season in their loss in San Francisco. The Steelers have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Pittsburgh has also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. Cleveland has played 22 of their last 31 home games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Browns ranks just 26th in the league by scoring only 19.0 PPG — and they are scoring just 17.0 PPG over their last three games. The defense has played better as of late as they are allowing only 321.3 total YPG over those last three games which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. Cleveland stays at home where the are scoring just 18.2 PPG. The Under is 17-7-1 in the Browns’ last 25 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Cleveland has also played 31 of their last 43 home games Under the Total when favored by up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if plenty of scoring drives end up in field goals. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the NFL by scoring touchdowns in just 39.3% of their Red Zone drives — and Cleveland ranks 26th in the league with a TD rate of only 46.7% of their Red Zone drives after a meager 30% conversion rate over their last three games (including a brutal stalled drive inside the 10-yard line against the Bills’ last week). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Cleveland Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (312) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (311). THE SITUATION: Kent State (3-6) has lost three straight games after their 35-33 loss at Toledo back on November 5th as a 3-point underdog. Buffalo (5-4) has won three straight games with their 43-14 win at Eastern Michigan as a 1-point favorite on November 2nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINTS: There are a few reasons to suspect that this Kent State team is a bit better than their underlying numbers suggest. Their non-conference schedule including road games at Arizona State, Auburn, and Wisconsin. When only looking at their conference statistics, the Golden Flashes are outscoring their opponents by +9.8 PPG while outgaining them by +38.8 net YPG. Second-year head coach Sean Lewis oversaw a 2-10 team last year that suffered four losses by one scoring possession. Fifteen starters are back from that team — and they have lost three straight games by a touchdown or less. But these losses were against three of the better teams in the Mid-American Conference in Ohio, Miami (OH), and then the Rockets last week — so this team has been very competitive after a very tough non-conference schedule. Kent State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing their last two games to conference foes. Additionally, the Golden Flashes have endured a front-loaded schedule that had then play away from home in six of their first nine games. Now they return home to play for only the fourth time this season — and just their third time at home in conference play. Kent State has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Furthermore, the Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in MAC play. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 28 points. And while they raced out to a 29-7 halftime lead in their last game against the Eagles, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a halftime lead of 17 or more points. The Bulls held Eastern Michigan to just 25 rushing yards which helped them outrush them by +227 net yards. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +225 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. And while the Bulls have not allowed more than 73 rushing yards in each of their last three games after allowing Ohio to generate 186 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo had eight starters return from last year’s 10-2 team that blew out this Golden Flashes team by a 48-14 score — but Kent State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Buffalo-Kent State CBS Sports Network Special with the Kent State Golden Flashes (312) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (307) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (308). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (3-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-10 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 1-point favorite back on November 2nd. Toledo (6-3) has won their last two games after their 35-33 win over Kent State as a 3-point favorite back on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois is realistically out of the Mid-American Conference West division title race — but they still have bowl aspirations. Look for this team to respond with a strong effort after their embarrassing loss to the Chippewas under first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. The Huskies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. And while they managed only 251 yards of offense against Central Michigan, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Northern Illinois 615 total yards in a terrible defensive effort in that game with 288 of those yards in the air — but they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This was a surprising effort considering that they had only allowed 244.5 total YPG in their last previous two games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games played in November. Furthermore, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. Toledo may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win at home. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 35 points in a win over a Mid-American Conference foe. And while Toledo generated 289 rushing yards in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. But defense remains a big concern for this team that ranks 118th in the nation by allowing 467.7 total YPG. The Rockets have allowed at least 33 points in three straight games while surrendering an average of 487.3 total YPG in those contests. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. And while the Rockets have played three straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after playing at least two straight Overs — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in six of these last seven situations.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo is being outgained by -18.5 net YPG this season but they have won all five of their close games that were decided by one scoring possession. Northern Illinois has lost three games decided by 8 points or less this year. While defending their MAC Championship from last year is likely no longer in the cards, the Huskies can still play the role of spoiler against their Mid-American Conference rival. 10* CFB Northern Illinois-Toledo ESPN2 Special with the Northern Illinois Huskies (307) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 24-21 upset loss at home to Miami (OH) as a 7-point favorite. Western Michigan (6-4) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four games with their 35-31 win over Ball State last Tuesday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Ohio outplayed the Redhawks in that game last week — they outgained them by a 374 to 278 yardage margin while controlling the clock for over 36 minutes and they won the first down battle by a 25 to 14 margin. A -2 net turnover margin played a big role in the Bobcats downfall. But Ohio has rebounded to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. The Bobcats have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, Ohio has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. Western Michigan may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a victory over a conference rival. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two of their last three games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 this season with an average losing margin of -16.8 PPG. Western Michigan allows their home hosts to score 42.0 PPG along with averaging 537.2 total YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. And in their last 5 games in November, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will be very cold tonight in Athens with the temperatures dropping into the teens. Ohio has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Western Michigan-Ohio ESPN2 Special with the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. The Seahawks have also played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Russell Wilson should keep his team within one scoring possession (at least) in this game — he leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in the 2-minute drill. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in their last two games as well as in seven of their nine contests this season — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Wilson completed 29 of 43 passes last week against the Buccaneers for 378 yards with five touchdown passes and no interceptions — and the Seahawks are 27-12-3 ATS in their last 42 games after a game where they generated at least 250 passing yards. Seattle goes back on the road where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +7.5 PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Moving forward, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Seattle is also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 411 yards last week against the Cardinals — but they are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Furthermore, this franchise has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least eight straight games. San Francisco has only covered the point spread once in their last three games as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread 8 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Niners also lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. Now they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home laying no more than 7 points. San Francisco is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams from the NFC West, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the 49ers — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against the Niners in San Francisco. 10* NFL Seattle-San Francisco ESPN Special with the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in seven of their last nine games. They are 5th in the NFL by averaging 395.5 total YPG — and they also rank 7th in the league by scoring 27.6 PPG. But the concern for this team is their defense as they have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine contests this season. The Seahawks rank 29th in the NFL by allowing 278.1 passing YPG. Atlanta’s aging backup quarterback, Matt Schaub, tore their defense up for 460 yards two weeks ago before Jameis Winston passed for 335 yards against them last week. Seattle has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Seahawks are allowing 28.0 PPG along with 423.3 total YPG. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 28.5 PPG — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road. Seattle has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC West — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total in November. San Francisco has played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. The 49ers have played outstanding defense this season — they rank first in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 241.0 total YPG. But the Niners lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. San Francisco returns home where they are scoring 35.3 PPG while averaging 423.3 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. Hopefully, we will start seeing more Red Zone trips end in touchdowns rather than short field goals (and then maybe our Unders will start seeing some Red Zone drives stall and settle for field goals). Sooner or later, the Regression Gods always reappear! In the meantime, let's stick to solid fundamentals. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. The Vikings have also rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This is a dreaded prime-time game for quarterback Kirk Cousins. He has 5-12 straight-up record as the starting QB in televised prime-time games — but the underlying numbers are not bad that accompany those seventeen starts. Cousins was very sharp in his prime-time game last month against Washington where he completed 23 of 26 passes for 285 passing yards on Thursday Night Football. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game — but Minnesota is likely to lean heavily on their dynamic rushing attack with Delvin Cook leading the way for them to average a robust 153.0 rushing YPG which is third in the NFL. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And the field turf will not be anything new for this team that plays on this same surface for their home games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games played on field turf. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Dallas dominated the Giants last week by outgaining them by a 429 to 271 yardage margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards in their last game. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a short week after a game on Monday Night Football. Dallas has benefited from a soft schedule so far this season that has included the Giants twice along with the Jets, Washington and Miami who entered the day with a combined 6-30 record with none of those four teams having won more than two victories. Of course, the Cowboys lost to that Jets team that later handed the Dolphins their first win of the season. Dallas’ only win against a team with a winning record this year was against the Eagles — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 36 home games when favored to up to 3 points, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have covered the point spread in their last 4 meetings with the Cowboys. Look for a close game where Minnesota will have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* NFL Minnesota-Dallas NBC-TV Special with the Minnesota Vikings (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys preceded their victory on Monday Night Football with a 37-10 win on Sunday Night Football two weeks prior against the Eagles. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 28 points in a victory over an NFC East rival in their last game. Additionally, not only have the Cowboys played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games but they have also played 5 straight Unders after winning two straight games by double-digits. Dallas has had their offense cranking as of late — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. Dallas has averaged 6.6 and 6.4 Yards-Per-Play respectively in each of their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Cowboys also rushed for 172 yards last week against the Giants — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Dallas returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. QB Kirk Cousins will be without wide receiver Adam Thielen who is out for this game with a hamstring injury. Look for the Vikings to run the football to keep the Cowboys’ offense off the field. That will be easier said than done — Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 17.8 PPG and they also rank 6th in the league by giving up just 318.1 total YPG. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Minnesota did allow the Chiefs to average 7.1 YPP — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 7 points. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total. Look for this game to resemble the Cowboys prime-time game in New Orleans at the end of September which resulted in a 12-10 score. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (202) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (201). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-8) returns to the field after their bye week after a 24-10 loss in London to the Los Angeles Rams as a 12-point underdog. Baltimore (6-2) has won four games in a row after their triumphant 37-20 win over New England last Sunday night as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Nothing like taking a winless NFL team after a dreary Saturday in College Football! I would hate myself more for not endorsing this play (and the Bengals cover) than I will if the Ravens blow out this team today. If we are not willing to invest in this fantastic “play-against” situation, then it is time to get out of the business. Baltimore’s value with the betting public will never be higher after they pulled off two straight upset victories with their win over the Patriots preceded by a 30-16 upset win at Seattle as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago. But the personality of this team suggests they will suffer an emotional letdown. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after winning two straight games by at least 14 points. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Baltimore defense surrendered 268 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow AFC North foes. They have had the benefit of their bye week to prepare against the Ravens’ ground game behind Lamar Jackson. They also should have a specific offensive game plan for rookie quarterback Ryan Finley who takes over for Andy Dalton. I like Finley from his NC State days — and he played well in the preseason. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing at least eight straight games. They do return home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And while they allowed 372 passing yards to the Rams in London, the Bengals have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch from the Ravens’ 23-17 win last month on October 13th played in Baltimore. But this Baltimore team has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played in Cincinnati. Hold your nose if it helps (I will …) but this is too many points to pass up for a home dog in a divisional matchup playing with revenge and off their bye week. 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Cincinnati Bengals (202) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost four games in a row with their 22-14 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (3-4-1) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-24 loss in Oakland last week as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Taking Chicago was on my short list of sides to still consider this morning after taking into account the final injury reports — and, lo and behold, Matthew Stafford will not playing in this game with doctors ruling him out because of some broken vertebrae in his back. That makes a potentially good play into a great situation. Stafford has been quietly having an MVP level season for this Lions team that ranks 5th in the NFL in total offense. Jeff Driskel will be the quarterback under center for this team despite him not taking part in training camp as he signed with the team during the regular season. Driskel played in nine games with five starts last year for the Bengals where he completed 59.7% of his passes but averaged only 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. It is not encouraging that he was cut by Cincinnati after their second preseason game this season after completing just 13 of 27 passes for 136 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. I also assign zero credibility to the fact that he was picked up by the Lions as their management has been disorganized with many/most of their personnel decisions (not involving former Patriots players) — Detroit has rolled through at least three backup quarterbacks this season with Tom Savage, David Fales, and Josh Johnson (offhand) who have all been cut since. Perhaps Driskel is an upgrade over that list of names (perhaps) but he did not have the benefit of training camp to learn the Darrell Bevell offense. Quite simply, Plan A for this team has been Stafford at quarterback — and Plan B is to not worry about Plan B. For a fragile team about ready to form a mutiny against head coach Matt Patricia, this is not a good turn of events. As it is, Stafford was holding things together for this team that has collapsed on the defensive side of the football. The Lions are allowing 27.1 PPG (27th in the NFL) while ranking second-to-last by giving up 424.1 total YPG. They have allowed 33.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 441.0 total YPG — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Their beleaguered secondary is also 31st in the NFL by surrendering 288.4 passing YPG after giving up at least 277 passing yards in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight contests. Additionally, Detroit is just 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Lions are also 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC North opponents. This defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back on track. Chicago managed just 164 yards of offense last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after failing to generate at least 200 total yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. And while Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after not covering point spread expectations in three straight contests. Returning home will help this team as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And look for the Bears’ defense to help by forcing Driskel and this Lions’ offense (without their injured running back Kerryon Johnson) to force mistakes and turnovers in this one. Chicago has lost the turnover battle in three straight games — but not only have they covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games but they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after losing the turnover war in three straight contests. This is also a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams from the NFC North — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bears after getting swept last season — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at Soldier Field playing the Bears. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (197). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (7-1) has won four straight games with their 20-17 win at UNLV as a 10.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Nevada (5-4) snapped a two-game losing streak last week with their 21-10 win over New Mexico as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego State are favorites in the 17-point range despite having an offense that averages just 21.8 PPG. That may make it look easy to take the underdogs in this contest but I am going to trust the wisdom of the oddsmakers in setting this line. The Aztecs are not going to surrender many points in this game — they rank 8th in the FBS by allowing just 14.1 PPG and they also rank 12th in the nation by surrendering just 283.5 total YPG. Additionally, San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. While the Aztecs are playing very conservatively on offense, the flip side of that coin is that they have only turned the ball over four times this season — and never more than once in a game. San Diego State has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. The Aztecs are also 11-5-1 in their last 17 games played in November. Nevada may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory at home. The Wolf Pack have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Now this team goes back on the road — with a redshirt freshman quarterback in Carson Strong who has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5) this season — where they are just 1-3. Nevada is being outscored by -27.2 PPG and outgained by -135.5 net YPG on the road this season as they are scoring just 14.0 PPG in these games while allowing their home hosts to generate 449.5 total YPG along with 41.2 PPG. The Wolf Pack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Nevada has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 17.5 to 21 points. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Mountain West Conference opponents — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State will also be looking to avenge a 28-24 upset loss at Nevada last October 27th where they were laying two points. But the Wolf Pack are just 2-5-1 ATS still in their last 8 meetings with the Aztecs which includes them being 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games played at San Diego State. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). THE SITUATION: Boise State (7-1) rebounded from their 3-point loss at BYU last week with a 52-42 win at San Jose State last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Wyoming (6-2) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-3 win over Nevada as a 12-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s victory over the Wolf Pack was preceded by a 23-10 win at home over New Mexico the previous week — but that might be setting them up for a letdown now. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two straight games by at least 10 points against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. Now Wyoming goes back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season while being outgained by -98.0 total YPG. This Cowboys team typically enjoys a nice home-field advantage when playing in the high altitude in Laramie — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Compounding the matter for this Wyoming team is that they lost their starting quarterback, Sean Chambers, to a season-ending knee injury in that victory over Nevada. Tyler Vander Waal takes over again under center after completing just 3 of 10 passes against the Wolf Pack after the Chambers injury. Vander Waal was initially the starting quarterback last year but after an 0-4 start where the Cowboys were scoring only 11.5 PPG, he was benched for Chambers. Vander Waal made nine starts last year but eclipsed 200 passing yards only twice in those games. Perhaps the biggest spark that Chambers provided this team was with his mobility — he has rushed for 567 yards with 10 touchdowns on the ground this season. Wyoming is only completing 40.6% of their passes this season so the lack of mobility with Vander Waal limits the Cowboys’ effectiveness in obvious passing situations. Wyoming will be challenged by a stout Broncos run defense that is tied for 23rd in the nation by allowing only 116.3 rushing YPG. Boise State should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Boise State has not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Broncos did generate 468 yards last week — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the defense has been an issue for this team as of late as they surrendered 497 yards to the Spartans. Boise State is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards in four straight games which should serve them well against this Cowboys team — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Boise State returns home where they are 4-0 with an averaging winning margin of +18.8 PPG. The Broncos are scoring 37.0 PPG at home while limiting their guests to just 18.2 PPG along with only 302.2 total YPG — they are outgaining their visitors by +148.0 net YPG. Boise State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. With the Broncos still controlling their fate to reach the Mountain West Conference championship game, look for them to secure a dominant victory against an undermanned Cowboys offense. 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (194) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (193). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (6-2) has lost two straight games after their 38-7 win at Ohio State two weeks ago as a 14.5-point underdog. Iowa (6-2) has won two straight games after their 20-0 win at Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: It was just three short weeks ago that this Wisconsin team was considering as possible one of the best this football team has ever assembled in school history. Then the Badgers were upset at Illinois as a 29-point favorite in what was considered them looking ahead to their showdown with the Buckeyes. In hindsight, that Fighting Illini team appears to be much improved under former NFL head coach Lovie Smith than we realized at the time. Wisconsin then did not have the talent to keep up with Ohio State for 60 full minutes two weeks ago — but this team should be ready to play good football again this afternoon especially with their Big Ten Championship Game aspirations still very much alive. The Badgers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after their bye week. The Badgers return home to Madison for the first time since October 12th where they shut out Michigan State by a 38-0 score. Wisconsin is 5-0 at home this year where they are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 450.2 total YPG — and they are holding their guests to only 5.8 PPG along with just 177.0 total YPG. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while they held the Wildcats to just 202 total yards two weeks ago, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game. Now this team goes on the road again where they are scoring just 13.7 PPG along with averaging only 292.0 total YPG. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November under head coach Kirk Ferentz.

FINAL TAKE: The Hawkeyes have not been a very good underdog as of late. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when they were getting the points as the dog. Iowa has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road as the underdog where they (obviously) also lost all seven games. 20* CFB Iowa-Wisconsin Fox-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (194) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (193). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (168) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (167). THE SITUATION: Alabama (8-0) takes the field again after their 48-7 win over Arkansas as a 32-point favorite two weeks ago. LSU (8-0) comes off a 23-20 win over Auburn back on October 26th where they were 11.5-point favorites at home.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: It looks like Tua Tagovailoa will play in this game after taking part in practice this week. Head coach Nick Saban has been cagey about his status — his mobility will likely be not at 100%. Tagovailoa underwent the same tight rope procedure on his ankle as he did last December which allowed him to play in the National Semifinals against Clemson. Most importantly for the Crimson Tide offense, Tagovailoa should be able to execute the Alabama passing attack that ranks 5th in the nation by averaging 338.0 passing YPG. The Crimson Tide are scoring 50.6 PPG while averaging 504.4 total YPG at home this year. They have scored at least 35 points in all eight of their games this season — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in at least five straight games. This offense has also done an outstanding job of protecting the football as they have only turned the ball over five times this year while never turning the ball over more than once in their eight games. Saban’s teams are very tough to beat when they protect the football as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not turning the ball over more than once in three straight games. The freshmen linebackers who have been pressed into duty early this season are also continuing to improve. Over their last three games, the Tide are surrendering just 277.7 total YPG which is -29.8 total YPG better than their season average. LSU did gain 508 yards against the Auburn defense two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers get off schedule in this game and face more 2nd/3rd and long situations than they have been used to. LSU is not gaining positive yards in 17% of their rushing attempts this season (38th in the nation) — and quarterback Joe Burrow is getting sacked on 6% of standard passing downs which is 81st in the FBS. Joe Brady is getting plenty of accolades of him bringing in a sophisticated passing attack to this team after serving as an assistant offensive coach for the New Orleans Saints — but the shotgun heavy scheme has struggled in the Red Zone close to the goal line. The Tigers rank 50th in the Success Rate once inside the 10-yard line — and they rank 80th in Success Rate when reaching 1st-and-Goal. This is not a good sign for a team that has scored only 26 combined points in their last four meetings with Alabama. LSU has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Saban has a big edge in coaching expertise with his staff over the Tigers under Ed Orgeron (even with Brady who is not calling plays). The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Tide. And Saban makes sure the LSU showdown occurs in as optimal of conditions as possible. This is Alabama’s third straight home game as they have been at home in Tuscaloosa since their game at Texas A&M on October 12th. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games after playing their last two games at home. And the Tide have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after their bye week. The extra time will help them scheme against the Brady passing attack — but they were already familiar with that approach which is not uncommon outside the LSU football offices before this season. 10* CFB LSU-Alabama CBS-TV Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (168) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (167). Best of luck for us — Frank.