At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-19 loss at Boise State last week as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. San Jose State (2-1) looks to build off their 31-24 upset win in Fayetteville against Arkansas as a 20-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Spartans surprising upset victory was validation for a football program under head coach Brent Brennan that had lost twenty-three of their last twenty-five games in his first two seasons with the program. Brennan has played 48 freshmen in those two years in completely rebuilding this program. Yet this remains a team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that was outgained by -148 net yards in Mountain West Conference play. Improvement should have been expected from this team — but they have still have a long way to go. A big emotional letdown is likely for this team after they pulled off their first victory over a Power Five conference team since 2006 when they knocked off Stanford. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Josh Love enjoyed the best passing day in his career by completing 32 of 49 passes for 402 yards against the Razorbacks — but the Spartans are just 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. San Jose State has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games in the month of September. I hate this situation for this team now. This is a very challenging travel schedule for this west coast team who had to travel east last week and now has to play on a short week on the road again. And one less day to prepare for the Air Force spread triple option certainly does not help things. San Jose State was torched by Army’s similar offense last year in a 52-3 loss where they allowed 341 rushing yards on 65 carries for a 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Spartans have been vulnerable against aggressive rushing attacks this season as well — Tulsa generated 256 rushing yards against them on 54 carries and three touchdowns back on September 7th. Air Force is averaging 316 rushing YPG this season behind junior quarterback Donald Hammond III who has jumpstarted this offense. In his five starts last season, Hammond III led an offense that averages 470 YPG with the team also running at a 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry clip. Hammond III is a great fit for the spread triple option of head coach Troy Calhoun given his arm strength and quick release which compliments his speed and power as a runner. There is no shame losing at Boise State on their blue field — and they matched the Broncos 355 yards of offense while controlling the football for 34:12 minutes. The Falcons held Boise State to just 95 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Air Force ranks 22nd in the nation by allowing just 91.7 rushing YPG — and they are limiting opposing rushers to only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons run defense that returned four of their top five tacklers from last season should make the Spartans one-dimensional with their passing attack tonight. Air Force also has a geographical on their home field in the high altitude of Colorado Springs, Colorado where they are 54-20 in their last seventy-four games. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams who are winning at least 50% of their games at home. This is just Air Force’s second game at home this season — and hosting this Spartans team playing with one less day of rest gives them a nice advantage.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons were 5-7 last year with their seven losses determined by just -6.3 PPG. Five of their losses were determined by one scoring possession — so they could have finished with a much better record. Fourteen returning starters for a military academy football team is a very high number — and this team demonstrated their big potential this season with their 30-23 upset victory at Colorado earlier this month. Air Force is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points as the favorite. While I am cautious in laying this many points, I think the Falcons grinding and tricky rushing attack will overwhelm this Spartans team due for a letdown who are playing on a short week. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have been hampered by injuries on both sides of the football. They will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. While the team expects to get wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game, the offense will miss Jackson who offers the team the deep threat they need to stretch out the opposing defense. Mike Wallace was supposed to fill this role last season — but his season-ending ankle injury limited their offense last year with the late acquisition of Golden Tate not really working as a remedy. Philadelphia averaged only 22.9 PPG which was just 18th in the NFL. The Eagles were also just 17th in the NFL in Red Zone production after leading the league in that level of production in their Super Bowl year. Philly did lead the NFL by averaging 32:25 minutes in time of possession — and controlling the clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will likely be the plan tonight. The Eagles’ offense last week was slowed down by seven dropped passes. Philly did outgain the Lions by +86 net yards but surrendering a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown ultimately served as the difference in that game. The Eagles defense has been playing well despite the injuries. In their two road games this year, they have allowed 22.0 PPG along with just 329.7 total YPG. They have been particularly stingy against the run as they are allowing only 57 rushing YPG on 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The 87 rushing yards the Lions generated against them was the most they have allowed all season —but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing ads in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Green Bay’s defense has been a pleasant surprise for them so far this season. They are tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions and 12 sacks — and the 11.7 PPG they are allowing this season is tops in the NFC. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. But the offense has remained a work in progress in the marriage between Rodgers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Green Bay is scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. Perhaps more tellingly, the Packers are converting on just 25% of their 3rd downs which is 29th in the league. Green Bay is running the ball more in this new offensive system — but they gained only 77 rushing yards on 23 carries last week. The Packers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Green Bay’s Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Green Bay NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia will be desperate tonight to not fall to 1-3 this season. They have suffered two straight upset losses — both decided by one scoring possession — after they lost to the Falcons in Atlanta the week before for Sunday Night Football by a 24-20 score where they were laying a 1-point favorite. Injuries have battered this team — they will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. Dealing with injuries is not new for head coach Doug Pederson and his coaching staff as the Eagles lost 198.5 adjusted games to injury last season which was the most in the NFL. Yet this Philly roster is one of the deepest in the league — and the quality of their overall roster helped them return to the playoffs last season to avoid becoming the ninth team in the last nineteen seasons to miss the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl the previous season. Philadelphia will be getting wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game which will help after quarterback Carson Wentz saw seven of his passes dropped last week against the Lions. The Eagles dominated the Lions last week by outgaining them by +86 net yards. Philly has been tough with their run defense this season as they have held their three opponents to just 57 rushing YPG on only 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The Eagles have not allowed more than 86 rushing yards in any of their three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Green Bay benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win over the Broncos — that made up for them only outgaining the Denver by 2 yards. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. On the short week, the Eagles have a significant edge with their coaching staff preparing for this game versus the Green Bay rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Defenses have been adjusting to the Packers in the second half as they have only scored 13 of their 58 points this year in the second half. Green Bay has scored 21 and 17 points in the first half of their last two contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not yet clicked with the LaFleur’s system as the Packers are scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. The Green Bay defense has been a pleasant surprise this season — but they have also had Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco as their opposing quarterbacks. The Packers are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won their four Thursday night games with Pederson as their head coach. The Eagles won three of those games outright as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of those games. Expect a close game with Philly having the chance to pull out this game even in Lambeau Field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) looks to build off their 42-6 win at South Alabama back on September 14th as a 20.5-point favorite. Navy (2-0) comes off a 42-10 win over East Carolina two Saturdays ago back on the 14th as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Midshipmen are looking to rebound from just their second losing season since 2003. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo has eight starters back from last year’s 3-10 team that lost nine of their last ten games after a 2-1 start to the year. Navy has lost sixteen of their last twenty-one games after starting the 2017 season 5-0 which ranked them 25th in the nation which was their highest national standing in Niumatalolo’s twelve years with the program. Perhaps part of the problem is fellow American Athletic Conference opponents are getting come comfortable defending their unique spread triple-option attack? Talent may be an issue on defense after this team surrendered 33.5 PPG which was the most points they have allowed since 2007. Niumatalolo hired a new defensive coordinator in Brian Newberry who ran the defense for the previous four seasons at Kennesaw State. Newberry wants to deploy an aggressive and attacking system — but he may not have the playmakers yet to execute this scheme against the better teams in the conference. The Midshipmen opened the season with an easy one against Holy Cross who they crushed by a 45-7 score before their big victory over the Pirates. But Navy may be due to a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their previous two games by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. This will be Navy’s first game away from home this season — and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. Memphis has started the season strong with an opening 15-10 victory over Ole Miss laying 3 points and then an easy 55-24 victory over Southern before their road games against the Jaguars. The Tigers generated 530 yards of offense at South Alabama while holding them to just 248 yards of offense. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This offense does not seem to have missed a beat with junior quarterback Brady White back as the starting quarterback from last year’s team that scored 42.9 PPG while ranking 4th in the nation by averaging 523.1 total YPG. White is completing 72.2% of his passes while averaging 10.2 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdowns to two interceptions. But the exciting thing about this team in head coach Mike Norvell’s team in his fourth season with the program is the improved play of the defense. Memphis is allowing only 13.3 PPG along with just 226.3 total YPG this year. The Tigers were young on that side of the ball last year — they have eight starters back from that group that allowed -37.9 fewer Yards-Per-Game than in 2017. This year’s defense is allowing only 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry which is very encouraging when facing the Navy spread triple option. The extra days to prepare for this defense will also help defensive coordinator Adam Fuller for the Midshipmen attack — and Memphis has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when playing off their bye week. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including seven of these last eight situations.

FINAL TAKE: Norwell should have his team chomping at the bit to play this game after they suffered three net close losses determined by just one scoring possession last year. Memphis was 8-6 last year with three of those losses decided by a combined 5 points. One of those defeats was at Navy where they lost by a 22-21 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Look for the Tigers to get their revenge tonight. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (490) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (489). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week. Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are precarious road favorites when playing more than 4 points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They were outgained by 99 net yards last week against the (winless) Broncos while losing the first down battle by a 27 to 16 margin but still managed to pull out that game. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky was just 16 of 27 last week for 120 yards — and he only ran the ball once for 8 yards. Chicago’s offense was entirely dependent on their ground game as they rushed the ball 29 times for 153 yards — but they are just 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Of concern was also the Bears defense as they gave up 372 yards including 282 yards in the air which is not a good sign for this team. They are just 19-42-1 ATS in their last 62 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the month of September. Washington is a desperate team that needs to put together four straight quarters of good play after blowing leads in two straight games. Look for this team to rally with their most complete effort of the season tonight. The Skins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. They need to play better on defense after allowing 474 total yards with the Cowboys averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Play. Washington has covered the point spread in 8 straight games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Skins are still capable when playing at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games against the Skins. Expect a close game from a Washington team that really needs to get a win. 10* NFL Chicago-Washington ESPN Special with the Washington Redskins (490) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (489). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky’s best passing games last year were at home — so expect another conservative game plan from Nagy tonight as Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. This is likely the smart move given the outstanding defense that the Bears possess. Chicago is 4th in the league in total defense while also ranking 6th in rushing defense — and they have registered seven sacks in their first two games. The Bears held the Broncos to only a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Chicago has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bears did allow 372 total yards last week as they bent frequently to the Broncos while rarely breaking — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total wit the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games. The Skins are ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. The offense is on their third quarterback with Alex Smith out the year and Colt McCoy out with a leg injury. Case Keenum is solid but not spectacular — but he lacks dynamic weapons with running back Derrius Guice once again on Injured Reserve with a knee injury and tight end Jordan Reed still in the concussion protocol. And this offense really misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues to hold out — his absence has left the Skins’ offensive line a mess. They gained only 255 yards of offense last week against the Cowboys while rushing for only 47 yards. Washington has attempted only 30 rushing plays this season for a mere 75 yards. The Skins have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Washington was outrushed by -166 yards last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. The Skins have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. Frankly, Washington needs to play better on the defense. Missing Reuben Foster and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who are both injured hurts — but there is still talent on that side of the ball. The Skins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be looking to establish their ground game to help put their quarterbacks in better positions to succeed. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (487) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Now this team returns home with huge expectations this season given the accumulation of talent they have acquired on both sides of the football. But I worry that this organization has put the cart ahead of the horse when it comes to building a winning culture. With the personalities of Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham (among many) along with a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens, it is a volatile mix in Cleveland. They have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns are also just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. And while this Cleveland team has a very good defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This team goes back not he road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: Look for this to be a close game before the Rams’ eventually pull away. I don’t like the situation for the Browns — playing this game on a short week from Monday Night with the weight of the world on their shoulders with their thirsty fan base. The Rams have a significant edge in coaching with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips along with head coach Sean McVay battling wits with rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens with his coordinators, Todd Monken and Steve Wilks (who I like — but Phillips is the Dean of defensive coaches in the NFL). With LA also enjoying an experience edge with a host of big games under their belts, look for them to pull out the win. 10* NFL LA Rams-Cleveland NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (487) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And despite gaining 375 yards of offense last week, the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is experiencing some growing pains in this offense executing the passing game. He completed only 19 of 35 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week. He is dropping too far deep in the pocket on too many of his passing attempts. And when he stays in the pocket, he is too often bailout out with his left leg in his follow-through which is impacting is accuracy. Both of these bad habits can be attributed to his concerns about the opposing team’s pass rush. One of the big costs in acquiring wide receiver Odell Beckham was that had to ship off their solid right guard, Kevin Zeitler, to the Giants to complete the deal. Mayfield has been sacked eight times already this season — he has been sacked once in every ten pass plays this season as compared to his being sacked once every twenty pass plays last year. Those are ominous numbers when now facing Aaron Donald and this Rams defense. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best in the business — expect him to take Beckham away as a deep threat while daring Mayfield to be willing to be patient with his targets underneath. The Browns have a dynamic pass rush as well led by emerging star Myles Garrett who already has registered five sacks this season. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to just 300.5 total YPG. They return home where the Under is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Los Angeles is also playing outstanding defense after limiting the Saints to just 244 total yards last week (while knocking Drew Brees out of that game). The Rams have held their first two opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 293.5 total YPG. They have become a run-heavy team behind Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown who are both averaging over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry this season. But this Rams team is being challenged with their depth on their offensive line with a rash of injuries at that position. Rookie Jamil Demby, a sixth-round pick, may have to make his first professional start at right guard for Austin Blythe who is out with a left ankle. The LA offense is not as dynamic on the road where they scored a nice 28.4 PPG last season but averaged only 387.6 total YPG — and that was -4 PPG below their season average along with over -30 YPG less than their overall average. QB Jared Goff averaged 342.1 passing YPG at home last year — but that number dropped to just 238 passing YPG on the road. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have outstanding defenses. Both of these offenses have dynamic playmakers but are limited a bit given the respective state of their offensive lines. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-2) remained winless this season after their 28-26 upset loss at home to Seattle as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (2-0) comes off a 41-17 blowout victory at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was beating the Seahawks before Big Ben Roethlisberger suffered his season-ending elbow injury in that game. Now this organization is in a desperate situation with their franchise quarterback out and with them winless so far this season with a challenging trip out west on deck against an undefeated team. But the reason why we should have confidence that this football team has not thrown in the towel is that they traded valuable draft picks this week for Dolphins’ cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick who will offer the team an immediate upgrade in their secondary. The Steelers have a 10-6 straight-up record in their last sixteen games played without Roethlisberger — they are essentially a playoff team without him still. This team feels good enough about backup Mason Rudolph running the offense that they traded away their other young backup in Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 passes last week against Seattle for 112 yards with two touchdown passes. He will have the benefit of a strong offensive line as well. Look for the Steelers to rally around each other and head coach Mike Tomlin in this moment of adversity — they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games after an upset loss. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 103 road games as the underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as the dog. And while Pittsburgh has allowed 61 points this season, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. San Francisco returns home after a successful two-game road trip out east with wins in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. But this team has not enjoyed much of a home-field advantage at Levi Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is a young team that does not have much of a track record handling success — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games as the favorite. Even without running back Tevin Coleman, the 49ers rushed for 259 yards last week against the Bengals defense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards. Coleman will still be out this week with his ankle injury — but the bigger concern is with the fibula injury to left tackle Joe Staley that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks. San Fran also has injuries on their defensive line after allowing the Bengals to pass for 291 yards. The Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is committing too many penalties right now — they are averaging 10 penalties per game which is accounting for 80 Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers may win this game — but this should be a dog fight against a desperate but veteran Steelers team with a winning culture. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (479) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Carolina (0-2) looks to bounce-back from their 20-14 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 6.5-point underdog back on September 12th. Arizona (0-1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 loss at Baltimore last Sunday as a 13-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a gut check game for this Carolina team after also losing their opening game of the season at home to the Los Angeles Rams by just a field goal. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing those two games at home by 7 points or less. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 57 games after a point spread loss under head coach Ron Rivera. The team will be without quarterback Cam Newton who is being given time off given a bevy of injuries including his leg and his shoulder. Frankly, the Panthers will likely be better off with Kyle Allen under center since he is at least healthy. Newton is at his most effective when he offers a legitimate running option but his bum ankle has neutralized that part of his game as he only had one rushing attempt last week. Newton’s shoulder injury has negatively impacted his accuracy — and he has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 178 pass attempts. Look for offensive coordinator Norv Turner to have a nice game plan for his second-year QB in Allen.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-1) looks to build off their 24-20 upset win over Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog last Sunday night. Indianapolis (1-1) comes off a 19-17 upset victory of their own at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Atlanta has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Falcons defense played well to shut down the Eagles offense as they allowed only 286 total yards. Philly managed to gain just 49 rushing yards on 21 carries — and the Under is a decisive 61-26-4 in their last 91 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. QB Matt Ryan passed for 320 yards victory — but they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Atlanta goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Last week’s game finished below the 53 point Total as well — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the game finished Under the Total 11 times. Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after an upset victory as an underdog. The Colts held the Titans offense to just 242 total yards including just 119 yards in the air. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. And while that game fell well below the 43.5 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Colts return home for this one where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Indy will want to run the ball to keep the Falcons’ potent offense off the field. They managed only 288 total yards in their victory over the Titans. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Kickoff with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 24-20 upset loss in Atlanta last Sunday night as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (1-0-1) looks to build off a 13-10 upset victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit should be 2-0 if not for their 4th quarter collapse in Arizona where they allowed rookie quarterback Kyler Murray to rally his team from a 24-6 4th quarter deficit to eke out a tie. The Lions then upset the Chargers playing in an early 1 PM ET kickoff game despite getting outgained by a 424 to 339 yardage margin. Detroit is likely due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win at home by no more than a field goal. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 43 road games after a win by 6 points or less. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The biggest issue with this team is their lack of playmakers on both sides of the football. Quarterback Matthew Stafford remains solid if not spectacular and a bit of a disappointment as a former number one pick in the league. He lacks targets in the passing game that demands a double-team. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Detroit’s defense has been built of capable playmakers but none strike fear in an offense. They are just 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents. Philadelphia will be looking to get back their winning ways after laying an egg in Atlanta. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries including their top two wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both likely out for this game and defensive tackle Tim Jernigan out for four to six weeks. But this Philly team has one of the deepest rosters in the NFL — particularly on both lines of scrimmage. Quarterback Carson Wentz still has tight end Zack Ertz as well as a deep cadre of running backs. The Eagles enter this game 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down offense. And while they surrendered 310 passing yards last week to the Falcons, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. Philly did hold the Falcons to just 58 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Eagles have held their first two opponents to just 42 rushing YPG which is third-best in the NFL. Detroit has become a run-first offense under head coach Matt Patricia with Stafford becoming more of a game-manager. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And don’t underestimate the value of the inside knowledge defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz possesses on Stafford after serving as his first head coach in his tour of duty as the Lions head coach from 2009 to 2013.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Philadelphia. The Eagles would likely be laying at least a touchdown if not for their injuries. While I don’t love the fact that they did not scrimmage in pads on Wednesday, the effect of that is probably overvalued. The Philadelphia depth along with their edges in coaching should lead them to a relatively easy victory. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (351) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (352). THE SITUATION: Colorado (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 30-23 upset loss at home to Air Force last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. Arizona State (3-0) pulled off a 10-7 upset victory at Michigan State last week as a 15.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: The Sun Devils pulled out that upset in East Lansing despite being outgained by 188 net yards. The Arizona State offense managed only 216 yards of offense against Sparty while picking up only fourteen first downs. If not for an extremely conservative offensive game plan from Michigan State along with a +1 net turnover margin that was critical in the wining this game. The Sun Devils have a talented freshman leading their offense in quarterback Jayden Daniels who coveted 15 of 26 passes for 140 yards against the Spartans defense. While the dual-threat QB has a high ceiling, he is still green — and he has two other fellow freshmen starting on the offensive line. The Arizona State looked shaky two weeks ago in a 19-7 victory over an FCS school in Sacramento State. These question marks on offense make the Sun Devils precarious favorites of at least a touchdown — they have not covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Arizona State returns home to Tempe where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Head coach Herm Edwards is doing a fine job with this football team in his second season with the program. Fifteen starters return from last year’s group that was 7-6 — but that team also benefited from a +10 net turnover margin which was tied for 11th best in the FBS. That number was rather fortunate considering that their expected net turnover margin was projected at just +0.4 — and that -9.7 net differential in expected turnover margin with actual turnover margin was the 4th highest in the nation. The Buffaloes were caught flat last week as they went into halftime at home against the Falcons trailing by a 20-10 score. Colorado looked emotionally spent from their 34-31 comeback victory at Nebraska that required overtime two weeks ago. First-year head coach Mel Tucker inherited eleven starters from last year’s 5-7 team. But that group would likely have gotten to a bowl game if their star wide receiver, Laviska Shenault, Jr., had been healthy all season. After a dynamic start to the season that put him in the Heisman Trophy buzz, a toe injury limited his effectiveness in the second half of the season until he was finally shut down after nine games. He still caught 86 balls for 1011 receiving yards. So far this season, Shenault has caught 16 balls for 203 yards with two touchdown passes. He will be the most dynamic player on the field tonight. The Buffaloes also have an edge at quarterback in fifth-year senior Steven Montez who is completed 64.7% of his passes last year. The dual-threat QB is an NFL prospect with a significant edge in experience over Daniels.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 28-21 score in Boulder as a 2-point favorite. With the Buffaloes having a significant edge in experience at QB, expect a close game between these two teams in their opening game in Pac-12 play. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Colorado Buffaloes (351) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (3-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-27 clubbing at home against Stanford last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 17-10 loss at Penn State last week as a 17-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. UCF is using their third-string (or fourth string) quarterback this season with freshman Dillon Gabriel getting the snaps. Senior QB McKenzie Milton is out the season with a knee injury and his backup, Darriel Mack, missed all of training camp with an ankle injury. Second-year head coach Josh Heupel brought in Brandon Wimbush from Notre Dame as a transfer student to compete for the starting job but Gabriel’s ability to operate the up-tempo RPO system inspired by the Art Briles school of offense has kept him on the field. But this is still a true freshman playing in a hostile environment for this contest. The Knights have played 4 straight games on the road Under the Total. Gabriel led an offense that generated 545 yards of offense against the Cardinal — but UCF has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Knights have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. While the offense has been getting most of the headlines for this UCF team, they have been outstanding on defense. The Knights limited the Cardinal to just 349 yards of offense last week. While they have allowed just 41 points in their three games this season, most of those points have been surrendered in garbage time in the season half. UCF has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Junior QB Kenny Pickett completed 35 of 51 passes for 372 yards in a losing effort last week — but the Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Fifth-year head coach Pat Narduzzi received plenty of criticism for going for a field goal in the 4th quarter on a 4th-and-one play on the one-yard line — an attempt that was missed — rather than going for the potential game-tying touchdown. While he deserves all the heat for that decision, it demonstrated his confidence in his defense since he assumed his offense would get the ball back again. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator is overseeing a defensive unit this year that is allowing only 19.0 PPG along with just 303.7 total YPG — and that number drops to 261.0 total YPG in their two games at home. The Panthers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But a troubling observation about this team is that they have not scored an offensive touchdown in the second half of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: Pitt has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They will be looking to avenge a 45-13 loss at UFC last season as a 13.5-point dog. The Total of that game was in the 65.5 range — expect another lower scoring game in this one. 25* CFB Television Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Syracuse (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-6 loss at home last Saturday night to Clemson as a 28-point underdog. Western Michigan (2-1) comes off a 57-10 win over Georgia State as a 9-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE MINUS THE POINTS: Syracuse should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. There is no shame to losing the reigning National Champions —but that setback came after a brutal 63-20 loss at Maryland the previous week. Expectations were high entering the season in what was considered the best roster yet for head coach Dino Babers in his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s 10-3 team that crushed West Virginia in the Camping World Bowl by a 34-18 score. Perhaps the loss to the Terrapins will help the team recover from the disappointment of not pulling the upset over the Tigers last week in a game they had circled on their calendar. The Orange need to get back to playing good football with sophomore quarterback Tommy Devito making good decisions, his wide receivers hanging on to the football, and the offensive line doing a better job of blocking. Syracuse has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two straight games by at least three touchdowns. They should get their offense going after only managing 187 yards against Clemson. The Orange have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 275 yards of offense in their last game. And while the Syracuse defense allowed Clemson to average 8.6 Yards-Per-Play for 612 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after surrendering at least 475 yards in their last contest. The Orange do stay at home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Broncos may be just what the doctor ordered with their porous defense that allowed 50.8 PPG in their six losses last season. Western Michigan allowed 51 points along with 582 yards of offense in their 41-point loss to a Michigan State team that could not move the football last week in their meager 10-7 loss at home to Arizona State. That was the only Power Five conference opponent that the Broncos have faced so far this season. They did crush the Panthers last week with the help of a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning losing record at home. Additionally, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in expected shootouts with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Syracuse is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 16 of their last 19 games against teams from the Mid-American Conference. The Orange soundly defeated the Broncos in Kalamazoo last August 31st by a 55-42 score. Look for a similar result this afternoon. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (3-0) has won their first three games this season after their 31-0 shutout win over Idaho State last week as a 36.5-point favorite. USC (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-27 upset loss at BYU in overtime last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Utes have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Utah has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Utes have scored at least 30 points in all three of their games this season in what have been all easy victories by at least 18 points. The ceiling is higher for this Utah offense led by senior quarterback Tyler Huntley and senior running back Zack Moss. Those two helped the Utes score at last 40 points in four straight games during a stretch last year before they both suffered season-ending injuries. Moss has rushed for 371 yards in his three career contests against the Trojans. Huntley is completing 78% of his passes behind an offensive line that has not allowed a sack this year. Huntley has also not thrown an interception. This offense should put up plenty of points against a suspect USC defense that allowed BYU to generate 430 yards last week. The talent at the defensive line has declined under head coach Clay Helton’s tenure — and the secondary had no returning starters from last year along with eight newcomers at cornerback in the fall. Greg Johnson was the only cornerback on the roster with starting experience but he is listed as questionable as he goes through the concussion protocol. And the Trojans’ best defensive lineman, Christian Rector, is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury after not playing last week. The USC defense struggled against dual-threat QB Jorge Reyna to open the season so Huntley is poised to have a big night. Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans did generate 452 yards against the Cougars defense in that loss with freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis completing 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Slovis did throw three interceptions in that game — and USC has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The Trojans have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team is left with Slovis being under center after sophomore Jack Sears entered the transfer portal window after losing the starting gig to J.T. Daniels who then suffered a season-ending knee injury in that opening game against Fresno State. Slovis demonstrated he can operate the new Air Raid offense under head coach Graham Harrell in his first start two weeks ago as he passed for 377 yards three touchdown passes against Stanford. Additionally, the Over is 21-9-2 in the Trojans’ last 32 home games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight contests against each other Over the Total. USC will be feisty to win this game — but they may not be able to keep up with the Utah offense. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida International Golden Panthers (307) plus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (308). THE SITUATION: Florida International (1-2) looks to build off a 30-17 victory over New Hampshire last Saturday as a 13.5-point favorite. Louisiana Tech (2-1) comes off a 35-7 win at Bowling Green as a 12.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an urgent game for head coach Butch Davis’ team after they opened the season with losses at Tulane and at home to Western Kentucky. Expectations were high for this team entering the season as they returned sixteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that defeated Toledo by a 35-32 score in the Bahamas Bowl. The Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. And while they have yet to cover the point spread in their three games this season, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. This team was without their senior quarterback James Morgan last week but he has been upgraded to probable with his ankle recovering nicely. FIU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow Conference USA foes. Louisiana Tech played their best game of the season last week after suffering a 45-14 loss at Texas to being the season before struggling at home in a 20-14 loss to Grambling. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Louisiana Tech has been consistently good in the seven years under head coach Skip Holtz — but they rarely have been great in that period of time. The Bulldogs offense is skilled but lacks dynamic playmakers. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 49.5 to 56. Louisiana Tech has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: FIU is 8-3 in games decided by one scoring possession in Davis’ three seasons with the program. While maybe that suggests that the Golden Panthers are due for some regression when it comes to winning close games, this is a team that finds themselves in close contests. Florida International has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as the underdog. 10* CFB Florida International-Louisiana Tech CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida International Golden Panthers (307) plus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (302) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (301). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog. Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Jacksonville finds themselves in a desperate situation after losing the first two games of their season. This team is seventeen months removed from playing in the AFC Championship Game. The Jaguars took a few steps back last season with a 5-11 mark — but they suffered four net close losses in games decided by one scoring possession. They were only outgained by -9.4 net Yards-Per-Game last season which generally equates with teams finishing with a 7-9 record. A plethora of injuries on offense along with a -12 net turnover margin (tied for 29th in the league) did not help matters. Jacksonville remains an elite defensive team that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks along the way. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a game where neither team scored nor allowed more than 14 points. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less — and this includes them covering the point spread in three straight games after a loss by a field goal or less on the road. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. While I think the former Washington State quarterback has potential to be successful in the league, expect a heavy dose of running back Leonard Fournette tonight. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home by 3 points or less. The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. The ineptness of the Titans offense is illustrated by their failures on 3rd down — they have converted only three 3rd down plays in twenty chances this season. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also are just 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 games again teams with a losing redo. And in their last 5 games against fellow teams from the AFC South, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. 10* NFL Tennessee-Jacksonville NFL Network Special with the Jacksonville Jaguars (302) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite. Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Head coach Mike Vrabel is likely to continue to rely on his defense that was 8th in the NFL last year by allowing only 333.4 total YPG while also ranking 3rd in the league by giving up just 18.9 PPG. The Titans limited Indianapolis to only 288 total yards last week. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game against an AFC South rival. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. And in their last 7 road games when favored by no more than 3 points, Tennessee has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games after a point spread victory, Jacksonville has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. But as the regular-season game tape begins to accrue on the rookie quarterback from Washington State, Minshew will experience growing pains. And he is a QB who could certainly use the benefit from a full week of practice given his inexperience at the professional level. He led an offense that managed only 281 yards last week. Now the Jags return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Head coach Doug Marrone will also be happy to lean on his defense that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey has requested for a trade this week — but he looks likely to remain on the roster for at least this game and he should be very motivated to play in front of a nationally televised audience as he auditions for his next team.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Jacksonville last season. These two teams split their two meetings last year with the Jaguars winning by a 9-6 score last September 23rd before the Titans avenged that loss on December 6th with a 30-9 victory. Expect another low scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday played on a neutral field at NRG Stadium. Tulane (2-1) comes off a 58-6 blowout win at home over Missouri State last Saturday as a 31.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars are allowing 32.6 PPG along with 506.0 total YPG in their first three games this season — but two of those games were against two of the most potent offenses in the nation in the Cougars and Oklahoma. I have actually been a bit encouraged by the play of this unit that returned only four starters. An influx of six junior college transfers has helped new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen begin to stabilize this unit. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The bigger concern for the Cougars has been integrating senior quarterback D’Eriq King into the first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen’s version of the Air Raid offense. Houston is averaging only 146 passing YPG this season (which includes a cupcake game against Prairie Valley A&M) which is 120th in the nation. King is completing only 54.5% of his passes which is almost a 10% decline from last season. King passed for just 128 yards last week against Washington State — and the Cougars have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Houston did rush for 239 yards last week — they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The Cougars are averaging 239 rushing YPG this season with an incredibly consistent output of 241, 236, and 239 rushing yards this season — so expect more of the same from this team with the added benefit of a ground game moving the clock and keeping the Green Wave offense off the field. The Under is 7-3-1 in Houston’s last 11 games in the month of September. Tulane has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Green Wave held the Tigers last week to just 182 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Tulane defense has played well this season — they limited Auburn to 379 total yards which include a mere 207 yards in the air so their ability to limit the Cougars passing attack is pretty good. On offense, senior quarterback Justin McMillan has passed for only 424 yards in his three games with just two touchdown passes. The Green Wave have played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Tulane rushed for 298 yards in that contest last week — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Green Wave have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total after Houston’s 48-17 victory last season fell Under the 68 point Total. The Cougars offense is still working out some kinks this year — expect a lower scoring contest. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (290) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (289). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points. Cleveland (0-1) also looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Browns entered this season with sky-high expectations after being just two years removed from a winless season. Despite all the talent on the roster, these players simply cannot fiat a culture change without going through the process of learning how to win games. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 46 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. The Browns have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. Cleveland was completely undisciplined last week as they committed eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. Facing an uninspiring opponent dealing with a bevy of injuries may not be the assignment that scares this overconfident team straight. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 8 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and he does have 24 career starts under his belt with his time in Denver. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder — but he has been upgraded to probable tonight. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. The Jets have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after a loss at home — and they have coved the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 3 points or less at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a dog getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: This will be an emotional night for the Browns with them facing their ex-interim head coach in Williams — and this is also Odell Beckham’s first return to MetLife Stadium since being traded by the Giants in the offseason. This is also a must-win game for Cleveland with a brutal stretch of games coming up against the Rams, then a trip to Baltimore and San Francisco before hosting Seattle and New England and then a trip to Denver — so a loss tonight puts them in a very precarious situation. I don’t think this team has the maturity to convincingly win a game on the road against another desperate team. Expect a close (and ugly) game. 10* NFL Cleveland-NY Jets ESPN Special with the New York Jets (290) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (289). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (0-1) also looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and with check down Charlie in Adam Gase calling the plays, don’t be surprised if the former Denver starting quarterback never throws a pass past the first down marker. Even with Sam Darnold under center last week, the Jets offense managed just 223 yards in their first regular-season under Gase who is the master of 8-yard pickup on 3rd-and-12. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. Bell has been upgraded to probable so expect the Jets to give a healthy dose to the running back as they look to control the clock and keep the Browns’ offense off the field. New York has played 14 of their last 31 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss to an AFC East rival as a home favorite. The Jets have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of September. Gase’s teams in Miami also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in September — and they played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Browns have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cleveland defense did not play bad last week — they allowed only 339 total yards. But with eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. The Browns should respond with a strong defensive effort after all that — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. On offense, Mayfield may not be 100% after suffering a thumb injury in that game. Moving forward, the Under is 5-1-1 in Cleveland’s last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: With both of these teams coming off upset losses last week, the Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. In games involving a team that suffered an upset loss facing an opponent that comes off a double-digit upset loss, these games then finished Under the Total in 30 of these last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (288) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (287). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINT(S): Atlanta should respond with a strong effort after getting routed in the first half of that game by a 21-0 score. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, the Falcons should get their offense cranking back at home in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Quarterback Matt Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games as a home dog getting up to a field goal. Philadelphia has now failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of September.  The Philly pass defense was torched by Skins’ quarterback Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team who were 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games are allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons were ravaged by injuries last year with eight major contributors to the team hitting the Injured Reserve list at one point in the season. With head coach Dan Quinn now on the hot seat in his fifth year in Atlanta, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Atlanta NBC-TV Special with the Atlanta Falcons (288) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite. Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles where slugging on offense in the first half by scoring only 7 points. Perhaps Carson Wentz and company were rusty after not getting much playing time in the preseason — but they exploded in the second half by scoring 25 points en route to 436 yards of offense against an underrated Washington defense. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense also held the Skins to just 28 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 30 rushing yards. But the Philly pass defense was torched by the mighty Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team behind Matt Ryan who was 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. Philadelphia goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have also played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 13-3-1 in the Eagles’ last 17 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Atlanta has played 32 of their last 48 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons scored a robust 29.6 PPG when playing at home last year.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (283) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (284). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) looks to build off their 30-27 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans (1-0) comes off a dramatic last-second 30-28 win over Houston at home as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Saints were fortunate to pull out that victory over the Texans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. And while their offense generated 510 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Despite his 370 passing yards in that game, the ole eyeball test has me worried that quarterback Drew Brees has lost arm strength which diminishes his capacities to throw the long ball — and that allows defenses to creep in a bit closer. Brees has also been a different quarterback when playing on the road versus at home in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. While Brees averaged 321.6 passing YPG last year with an 11.1 Yards-in-the-Air Average and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 21:1, those numbers plummet on the road where he averaged just 217.6 passing YPG with just a 7.0 Yards-in-the-Air average and just 11 touchdown passes. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Jared Goff, on the other hand, gets to play his first game back at home since he led his team to the 26-23 victory in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game — and he plays much better on his home field. Goff was 7-1 at home last year while averaging 342.1 passing YPG with a 116.7 Passer Rating while passing for 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints will have revenge on their minds for this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against the Rams. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in Los Angeles against the Rams. 20* NFL New Orleans-LA Rams Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (283) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 21-20 narrow loss at Seattle last week as a 9.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-0) looks to build off their 31-17 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati had a moral victory by outplaying the Seahawks in their own stadium as they outgained them by a whopping 429 to 233 yardage margin while holding on to the football for 35:50 minutes of that game. A -2 net turnover margin was what held the Bengals back in that game. Now this team returns home with renewed optimism in the post-Marvin Lewis era under new head coach Zac Taylor. The offensive-minded head coach did a great job to put quarterback Andy Dalton into positions to succeed as he completed 35 of 51 passes for 418 yards which was a career-high. That is a good sign for this team moving forward as they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. Additionally, this team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bengals defense played well in shutting down the Seahawks ground game — Seattle wants to run the ball to control the Time of Possession yet that rushed for a mere 72 yards. That is another good sign for Cincy as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. San Francisco has stayed out east this week making their base camp in lovely Youngstown. I worry about how younger teams respond to being on the road for two straight weeks. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 50 road games coming off a victory by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Niners are a trendy pick to see a significant improvement in their win-loss record this season — but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did not have a good training camp and he continued to look rusty coming off knee surgery last week by passing for only 166 yards on 18 of 27 passing against the suspect Buccaneers defense. San Francisco generated only 256 yards of offense — but they scored two touchdown passes from pick-sixes at the hands of Jameis Winston. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have injuries at running back with Tevin Coleman out for San Francisco with an ankle and Joe Mixon questionable with an ankle. Mixon will be a game-time decision as he wants to take the field. The Bengals do have a quality running back still available in Giovani Bernard. Home field should make the difference with a big crowd expected to provide new energy for the Bengals who have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 33-3 loss at New England last Sunday night as a 5.5-point underdog. Seattle (1-0) looks to build off their 21-20 win at home over Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should respond with a strong effort after being embarrassed on national television. The Steelers have won eight of their nine games in the Ben Roethlisberger era straight-up after enduring a loss by at least 20 points. That number does not take into account the point spread — but it does point to the resolve this team should have this afternoon under his leadership. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by at least 21 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. I just think they got caught by a good team with a great defense — and playing in Foxboro did not help matters as that is a place where they have always struggled in the Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin era. The Steelers have a good defense that should take the next step this season after they drafted linebacker Devin Bush out of Michigan who gives them the speed in the middle of the field that they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh allowed the Patriots to generate 465 yards last week with a 7.01 Yards-Per-Play clip — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. There is a concern that JuJu Smith-Shuster does not have the skills to take over the number one receiving job for the departed Antonio Brown. I think he will be fine — especially when Pittsburgh gets their rushing attack going. The Steelers only ran the ball 13 times last week for a meager 32 rushing yards. Look for Pittsburgh to get back to running the football behind their big offensive line — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 50 yards. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the NFC. Seattle faces a situational challenge having to fly to the east coast to play in the 1 PM ET window of games. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a good job of preparing his team for the body clock issues of these early Sunday games out east. However, the Seahawks have been poor starters under Carroll when it comes to meeting point spread expectations in the early part of the season. Seattle is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games in the month of September. They were fortunate to escape last Sunday with a victory considering that they were outgained by a 429 to 233 yardage margin. Cincinnati dominated the Time of Possession — an aspect of the game that Carroll finds very important — as they held the ball for almost 36 minutes of that game. Seattle was able to survive given a +2 net turnover margin — yet they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last game. It is not a good sign for the Seahawks defense that they allowed Andy Dalton to shred them apart for 418 passing yards with him averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt even without an injured A.J. Green at wide receiver. Dalton had a Passer Rating of 143.9 when targeting Seahawks cornerback Tre Flowers — expect James Washington or Donte Moncrief to have a big game this afternoon depending on who Seattle elects Flowers to cover (I doubt they will have him assigned to Shuster). Seattle is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games gains teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. Despite their 10-6 record last year, they were a team that did not outgain their opponents in total yardage last year as they averaged 353.3 total YPG while allowing the same number. Look for an angry Pittsburgh team to take out their frustrations against the traveling Seahawks. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (156) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (155). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-17 loss at Ole Miss last Saturday as a 5-point underdog. Colorado State (1-1) won their first game of the season last week with their 38-13 triumph over Western Illinois as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for second-year head coach Chad Morris with his team not looking very good either last week or in their meager 20-13 win over Portland State in their opening game. Arkansas was just 2-10 last year in his first year with the program. Narrow 7-point losses to LSU and Texas A&M continued to four net close losses decided by one scoring possession suggested this team was much better than their record. A -10 net turnover margin along with a bevy of injuries did not help matters either. But Morris needs to have his team respond this week after getting outgained by the Rebels by -122 net yards due to their defense surrendering 483 yards of offense. The Razorbacks have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing by double-digits to an SEC rival. Look for the Arkansas defense to play better for their veteran coordinator John Chavis. While they allowed 237 rushing yards last week, they are then 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Returning home will help where the Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set at 63 to 70. Arkansas has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Don’t be surprised if Morris taps Nick Starkel to be the starting quarterback this afternoon after he completed 17 of 24 passes for 201 yards to spark the offense in the second half. The grad transfer from Texas A&M has been in competition with another grad transfer in Ben Hicks who played for Morris at SMU. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while the Rams have raced out to score 28 and 21 points in the first half of their first two games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 20 points in the first half of two straight games. Colorado State generated 585 yards last week against their FCS opponent — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 20 points in their last game. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of last year’s 34-27 upset victory for Colorado State as a 14-point underdog on September 8th. This will be the Rams’ first true road game this season traveling to Fayetteville to face a Razorbacks team that will be using this revenge opportunity as a measuring stick for the development of the program in Morris’ second season. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Arkansas Razorbacks (156) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (111) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (112). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (2-0) looks to build off their 52-0 victory over Bowling Green last Saturday as a 25-point favorite. Mississippi State (2-0) has also won their first two games of the season after defeating Southern Mississippi last week by a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Wildcats have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Most of those team trends were under the watch of their legendary head coach Bill Snyder who retired after last season. First-year head coach Chris Klieman takes over the program after winning four FCS national championships in five seasons at North Dakota State. Ordinarily, I ignore team trends when new head coaches take over — but Klieman is continuing Snyder’s philosophy of winning through defense and running the football. Kansas State has averaged controlling the football for 42 minutes per game in their first two contests — and keeping the opposing offense off the field while watching the clock move is a good formula for Unders. The Wildcats held the Falcons to just 140 yards of offense in their dominant win last week. Kansas State has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 20 points in their last contest. The Wildcats are averaging a whopping 347 rushing YPG in their first two games after generating 333 rushing yards against Bowling Green — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, Kansas State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 8 games in the month of September, the Wildcats have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Mississippi State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Mississippi State defense was bound to take a step back this season after returning only four starters and losing three players to the first round of the NFL draft. They have held their first two opponents to 387 total YPG. But they have still played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Second-year head coach Joe Moorhead is dealing with injuries on his offense with quarterback Tommy Stevens having to leave last game with a shoulder injury and his offensive line having multiple players banged up. Stevens has been upgraded to probable for this game but the Penn State transfer may not be at full strength. Moorhead will likely look to run the ball as well with his offense averaging 235 rushing YPG after gaining 210 yards on the ground last week. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Mississippi State stays home for this game where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulldogs have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State won the meeting between these two teams last year by a 31-10 score on the road in Manhattan. Expect this game to become a battle of Time of Possession with both head coaches looking to protect their defenses by trying to keep them fresh. 10* CFB Kansas State-Mississippi State O/U ESPN Special with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (111) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (2-0) enters this game coming off their dominant 42-0 shutout victory over Cincinnati last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indiana (2-0) is also undefeated so far this season after they crushed Eastern Illinois last week by a 52-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes offense generated 508 yards of offense against what had been considered a stout Cincinnati defense last week. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields has fit right into first-year teach coach Jason Day’s offense. The transfer from Georgia has passed for 561 yards in his first two games while throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also added 42 yards on the ground last week against the Bearcats while finding the end zone two times in displaying in his dual-threat capabilities. The Over is 3-0-1 in Ohio State’s last 4 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes also flexed their muscles on defense by holding Cincinnati to just 273 yards of offense. But this Ohio State defense has regressed as of late. They allowed 25.5 PPG last year which was the highest number they have allowed since 1999 while placing them a mediocre tied for 51st in the nation. Even worse, the 403.4 total YPG that the Buckeyes allowed last year was the most they have allowed in 50 years. Nine starters return from that unit that is now operating under new defensive coordinators in Jeff Hafley and Greg Mattison who was poached from Michigan to help with recruiting given his knowledge of the midwest as well as his Super Bowl ring coordinating the Ray Lewis Baltimore Ravens over a decade ago. Frankly, there has been a drop off in recruiting over the years at linebacker and defensive back. So while the Buckeyes held the Bearcats to just 273 yards of offense last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Ohio State has also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road. And in their last 5 games played on field turf, the Over is 3-1-1. Indiana has also been impressive on offense after gaining 555 yards last week against Eastern Illinois. The Hoosiers have then played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Indiana will push the tempo against Ohio State with the hopes of tiring out their athletes on defense. They averaged one play per 22.8 seconds last season which was the 20th fastest tempo in the FBS last year. The third-year head coach has quarterback talent at his disposal with junior Peyton Ramsey back after making all twelve starts last season along with freshman Jack Tuttle who was a four-star recruit who transferred from Utah. But Allen and offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer decided on freshman Michael Penix, Jr. to be their starter given his strong arm and dual-threat running capabilities. He played in three games last year before suffering a season-ending injury that allowed him to redshirt the season. All three quarterbacks played last week but it will likely be Penix under center for this game with Ramsey possibly getting in the game as a change of pace or in mop-up work. The Hoosiers only allowed 116 yards last week to that FCS opponent so let's take that with a grain of salt. Indiana has played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also played 25 of their last 32 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Hoosiers returned seven starters on defense but it was from a group that allowed their opponents to average +28 YPG above their offensive YPG season average last season which was 93rd worst in the nation. Indiana has played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in Big Ten play.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State won last year’s meeting by a 49-26 score as a 27.5-point favorite in Columbus. While Indiana may need garbage time to do it, I do expect them to approach that 26 scoring figure at home this season in what looks like a more dynamic offense. But the Buckeyes will likely reach 40 points in this one — and the Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in Bloomington. With Indiana playing at a fast tempo and Ohio State happy to take the extra possessions, expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). THE SITUATION: Washington State (2-0) has won their first two games this season after their 59-17 win over Northern Colorado last Saturday as a 43-point favorite. Houston (1-1) bounced-back from their nationally televised loss at Oklahoma by defeating Prairie View A&M by a 37-17 score as a 36-point favorite. This game will be playing on a neutral field at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE WASHINGTON STATE MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Mike Leach returned thirteen starters from last year’s team that finished 11-2. The biggest challenge Leach had in the offseason was finding his new quarterback after he found so much success with grad transfer Gardner Minshew who now finds himself the starting quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The expectation was that Leach would use another grad transfer Gage Gubrond who starred at Eastern Washington. But an impressive fall camp compelled Leach to tap fifth-year senior, Anthony Gordon, as his starter. In Leach, We Trust at this point when it comes to operating his version of the Air Raid offense. He has long been preparing for the post-Luke Falk era who was a three-year starter for this program. He brought in Gordon and Trey Tinsley (another fifth-year senior) as junior college transfers two years ago — and he believes in competition with the Gubrond transfer along with recruiting a talented younger quarterback in redshirt freshman Cammon Cooper. Gordon has validated Leach’s decision as he has thrown for 884 yards with nine touchdown passes and just one interception in his first two starts. Gordon found nine different receivers last week and looks well-equipped to run Leach’s offense. With the top four receivers back from last year along with talented rusher and pass-catching threat in running back Max Borghi along with a strong offensive line that returned four starters from last year, this offense should continue to put up big numbers — and that makes this Cougars team dangerous even when playing on the road. Washington State has covered the points read in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. These Cougars generated 594 yards last week — and not only have they covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Gordon has passed for 481 and 507 passing yards in his two starts — and Washington State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 325 passing yards in two straight games. These Cougars have raced out to fast starts as well as they have scored 24 and 35 points in the first half of their first two games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 20 points in the first half in two straight games. Washington State usually fares well in these expected higher scoring games as well as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. Gordon and this Air Raid offense should shred this Houston defense that surrendered 686 yards to the Sooners in their first game. While Oklahoma makes many defenses look bad, these Cougars’ defenders made it easy for Jalen Hurts in his debut with his new team as he had wide-open wide receivers all night. Houston returned only four starters from last year’s defense while losing future NFL players at all three levels of the unit making this a major rebuilding job for new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen. I put little stock in their holding Prairie Valley A&M to just 318 yards of offense last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by at least 17 points. Furthermore, while these Cougars raced out to a 34-10 lead last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last contest. Houston potentially has a dynamic offense of their own with senior D’Eriq King under center — but he has struggled at times to get in synch with the new offensive system of first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. King passed for only 139 yards last week on 15 of 26 passing against an FCS opponent while not rushing for positive yards. That is not a good sign for what is shaping up to be a shootout — and this Washington State defense has been much improved over the last few seasons after seeing improvements in points allowed in four straight games. Six starters return from that unit for second-year defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys from a group that led the FBS by generating sacks in 14% of their opponents in Passing Down situations. Washington State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State usually thrives in situations like this — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in September while also covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 non-conference games. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on field turf. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (2-0) looks to build off their 41-21 win at Rice last week as a 20-point favorite last Friday. North Carolina (2-0) looks to build off their 28-25 upset win at home to Miami (FL) last Saturday as a 5-point underdog. This is officially considered a non-conference game when it comes to these in-state rivals who wanted to get on each other's schedule again despite being in opposite divisions in the ACC — so the result will not count for the conference record of either team.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels have been a nice story to start the season with their prodigal son in head coach Mack Brown returning to the program he had great success with (before taking the Texas job) — they have pulled off two straight upset victories over South Carolina and then the Hurricanes last week. But with this North Carolina now playing their first true road game of the season, look for the bubble to burst tonight. Fourteen starters returned from last year’s 2-9 team that imploded last year in Larry Fedora’s seventh season with the program with injuries and suspensions. Fedora clearly lost the locker room — and things could have been much better without a 2-8 record in games decided by one possession over the last two seasons. But the talent level has declined on the defensive side of the football over the years with the group Brown inherited being on the small side. The Tar Heels surrendered 309 passing yards to the Hurricanes last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Since 2013, North Carolina has also finished last or second to last in run defense in the ACC. Brown has entrusted the offense to a true freshman in Sam Howell who completed 16 of 24 passes for 274 yards against the Miami defense. This will be his first start in a hostile environment after the neutral site game with South Carolina was played in Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium. This remains a program that is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of September. The Tar Heels have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in expected high-scoring contests with the Total set at 63 or higher. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Head coach Dave Clawson returns twelve starters from last year’s team that finished 7-6 after their 37-34 victory over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl. That Demon Deacons team was also hit hard by injuries with 34 starts lost from initial starters. Clawson has the decisive edge at quarterback in this game with junior Jamie Newman seizing the job in the offseason after winning three of his last four games last year playing in relief for the injured Sam Hartman including winning MVP in their bowl game. Newman completed 21 of 27 passes last week for 317 yards with three touchdown passes against Rice. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Demon Deacons have only committed one turnover in their first two games as well — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest is dealing with some injuries with running back Cade Carney and wide receiver Kendall Hinton both having issues. Freshman running back Kenneth Walker stepped up last week in Carney’s absence last week but the senior has been upgraded to probable for tonight. Hinton is doubtful with his hamstring injury but Newman still has two reliable targets in wide receivers Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington. 10* CFB North Carolina-Wake Forest ESPN Special with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should respond with a strong effort tonight as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Bucs actually outgained the 49ers last week by 39 net yards by it was a -2 net turnover margin stemming from three interceptions from Jameis Winston that made the difference in that game. San Francisco scored two touchdowns from interceptions in that game. First-year head coach Bruce Arians inherited a team that was probably much better than their 5-11 record suggests. The Buccaneers were ravaged by injuries last season as they lost 109.3 adjusted games to injury including 92.0 games on defense which was the highest in NFL history according to that metric. Turnovers put this team too far in a hole last year as well as their -18 net turnover margin was second-to-last in the league. Tampa Bay had a -3 net close losses in their games decided by one scoring possession — and they outgained their opponents by +32.1 net YPG which typically translates into a 9-7 season. One of Arians' main assignments is to get Winston to reduce his turnovers so that has absolutely been a topic of a few conversations this week. The encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Week Two of a new season. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Thursday night.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The underdog has also covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these NFC South rivals. Expect a close game between these two teams. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Carolina NFL Network Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jameis Winston was not magically transformed in his first game under new head coach Bruce Arians as he completed just 20 of 36 passes for 194 yards while throwing three interceptions in that loss to the 49ers. Arians has had success with some big names quarterbacks in the past — but the growth of Peyton Manning did not demonstrate itself until his second season with Arians while Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer did not see their big bumps in play until their third with the coach. The Buccaneers generated only 295 yards of offense in that game with one of their touchdowns coming from a 15-yard interception return. But the encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. This defense had nowhere to go but up after being at the bottom of the league over the last two seasons — but this group was also hit hard by the injury bug as they lost 92 adjusted games to injury according to the analytics (which was the most in NFL history using that measurement). Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Niners put 31 points up on the board but two of those touchdowns came from two pick-sixes surrendered by Winston (which was clearly a topic of conversation with Arians this week). As it is, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total suffering an upset loss at home by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bucs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Panthers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Moving forward, Carolina has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games played in Carolina Under the Total. With the Total set in the high 40s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season. Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos will bring a very good defense into Oakland tonight under first-year head coach Vic Fangio. The former Chicago defensive coordinator is one of the best defensive minds in the business — and Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay both claim that his coverage schemes are the most difficult to decipher. He inherits a defense with great potential after ranking 13th in the NFL by allowing only 21.8 PPG. Over their last three games, the Broncos held their opponents to just 286 total YPG with rookie Bradley Chubb playing very comfortably next to Von Miller at linebacker. Denver will need their defense to play well given that they scored only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 313.7 total YPG over their last three contests. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. A slow start is likely for this team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 8 of their last 9 opening weeks to a new season Under the Total. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 5 games on the road. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new season Under the Total. The Raiders also played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog. The big news for this team is that will not be playing this season with Antonio Brown as their best weapon on offense. Oakland also has issues on their offensive line tonight with both expected starters, Richie Incognito and Gabe Jackson unavailable to play: Jackson is dealing with an MCL injury while Incognito is serving a two-game suspension. That is not good news for an offense that failed to score at least 20 points nine times last year — and they averaged just 15.3 PPG along with 282.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Raiders have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland has played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents — and these two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season. Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It should be an energetic environment in the Coliseum in what will be the last home opener for these fans before the franchise relocates to Las Vegas. Oakland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. This should be an improved football team in the second year under head coach Jon Gruden with groups usually making a big jump in Year Two under new systems. I also expect this group of players to rally around each other to play inspired football in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. It is hard to call his departure to New England to be a big loss since he never really practiced with the team in the preseason. Tyrell Williams was a nice pickup from the Los Angeles Chargers which upgrades the wide receiver corps from last season and tight end Darren Waller looks poised to enjoy a breakout season after a strong training camp. But I expect the gem in this offense to be rookie running back Josh Jacobs who was sensational for Alabama in what was often a reserved role under head coach Nick Saban. Look for Gruden to fully unleash Jacobs now. The Raiders have also covered the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Denver is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September. The Broncos should improve under new head coach Vic Fangio who has finally received a chance to be a head coach. Fangio is one of the best defensive coaches in the business but it often takes a year for his players to fully embrace his complex schemes. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. These are all troubling issues for a team that failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road. Denver also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC West — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 appearances on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when not laying more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Oakland. With the Raiders motivated by the home crowd and to prove themselves with the Brown drama behind them, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (480) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (479). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl. Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should be very fired up to get the bad taste out of their (and their fans) mouth from that disastrous finish in the NFC Championship Game. The Saints scored 31.6 PPG at home last year while averaging 391.6 total YPG — and they outscored their opponents by +7.1 PPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. While it looked like quarterback Drew Brees tired last year as the season went on, he was on fire for the first half of the year as they won ten of their first eleven games. The Saints have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the first half of the regular season. Yet this is also a team that has lost five straight opening games in a row. After getting upset at home last year to Tampa Bay, this New Orleans team should be very focused to start this season with a decisive victory. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. I like the trades they made in the preseason to bring on Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills in the Jadeveon Clowney move — while they might have mortgaged their future, they improved their team this year. However, it might take some time for Tunsil to get completely in-synch with his mates on the offensive line along with quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Texans are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games played in a dome.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on Monday Night Football. Look for the Saints to win comfortably. 10* NFL Houston-New Orleans ESPN Special with the New Orleans Saints (480) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs. New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints averaged 30.4 PPG last season which is one of the reasons that the Total is set in the 50s for this contest. But New Orleans closed out last season playing 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Over their last three games, the Saints scored only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 334.7 total YPG. It appeared that quarterback Drew Brees tired as the season moved on. But this is also a team that relied on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense fresh and off the field. This was a possession-based offense under head coach Sean Payton — and this will likely continue tonight with Deshaun Watson the opposing quarterback. It was not just the home stretch of the season where the Saints’ offense slowed down — they averaged only 19.6 PPG over their last seven contests. Another problem for this offense was that it became apparent that the team lacked a reliable third option after wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. The organization attempted to address that situation with the free-agent signing of tight end Jared Cook after his breakout season with the Raiders. Maybe — but Cook was the beneficiary of an offense that lacked significant threats at wide receiver (which is why Oakland signed Antonio Brown and Tyrel Williams at that position in the offseason). The conventional was once that this New Orleans offense thrived when playing on field turf — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on turf. The Saints have also played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Houston started slowly last season as they scored only 19.7 PPG in their first three games of the season. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Texans’ last 12 games in the month of September under head coach Bill O’Brien — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. Houston also scored only 19.0 PPG over their final three games last season culminating in their disappointing effort at home against the Colts in the playoffs. The offense suffered a big blow with the injury to running back Lamar Miller. Acquiring Duke Johnson was helpful but his skills are more as a receiver than as a rusher — and the recently added Carlos Hyde has failed to stick with his previous three teams in the league. The Texans will lean on their defense that was tied for 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.8 PPG. This defense will still be good despite trading away Jadeveon Clowney as this move will allow the talented Whitney Mercilus to take over his role on the defense next to J.J. Watt.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total as the dog getting 3.5 to 7 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (478) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (477). THE SITUATION: New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England starts slow in September, right? That was my first reaction when looking at this matchup from afar. But let’s look closer as to how the Patriots have faired in their five previous openers — all at home — after winning the Super Bowl in the previous season. And these are all in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, of course. In a situation very similar to this one, New England covered the point spread as a 6-point favorite hosting Houston in 2018 (after their comeback victory over Atlanta in the Super Bowl) by a 27-20 score despite the storyline of Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien knowing all the Belichick secret sauce. The Patriots were clocked in 2017 by Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs by a 42-27 score (as an 8-point favorite) after they defeated Seattle in the Super Bowl (when the Seahawks did not continue to feed Marshawn Lynch as the goal line). In 2005, New England beat Oakland by a 30-20 score as a 7.5-point favorite. In 2004, the Patriots beat Indianapolis with Peyton Manning by a 27-24 score laying 3 points. Finally, in 2002, New England upset the Steelers as a 2.5-point underdog in the idyllic days when the conventional wisdom was that the Pats were fortunate to upset the St. Louis Rams behind a young QB that was only drafted in the 6th round. That makes New England 3-1-1 ATS in their previous five home openers when celebrating a Super Bowl win. While that does not make us zombies to take the Patriots in this spot, it should make us take serious pause regarding the “start slow” theory for the defending champs. In fact, New England is 27-22 ATS in their last forty-nine games in the first two weeks of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 40 of their last 58 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying no more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Pittsburgh is actually the slower starting team under head coach Mike Tomlin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opening weeks to a new season. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games in the month of September. The assumption with this team is that the offense will be just fine without Antonio Brown with JuJu Shuster easily becoming the go-to wideout with Donte Moncrief and James Washington all ready to step up. Those are all roles none of these players have proven in the past that they can handle — so, in practice, this might be easier said than done. The Steelers averaged only 20.3 PPG in their last three games last season — and they also only scored 23.5 PPG on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have been the thorn in the side for this Pittsburgh team more often than not. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 meetings with Pittsburgh — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Foxboro to play New England. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-New England NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (478) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year. New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots won the Super Bowl on the strength of their outstanding defense that limited the powerful Rams offense to just 260 total yards. This young unit is only getting better. New England held their last three opponents to only 295.0 total YPG. The Patriots’ defense was also very tough to move the ball against when playing at home in Gillette Stadium where they limited the visitors to only 17.9 PPG along with just 321.2 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as the favorite laying 7 or fewer points. But don’t be surprised if the Patriots are not crisp on offense. Tom Brady is adjusting to a new philosophy after the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski. It has not been a smooth preseason for Brady in getting comfortable with his wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas has been injured along with rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry. Josh Gordon has been cleared by the NFL to be eligible to play once again in the league but he did not take much part of training camp. And then the team signed Antonio Brown yesterday who will not be eligible to play tonight since the league deadline for rosters this week already passed. As it is, New England uses the first few weeks of the regular season to continue to install their offense — so this will very much be a work in progress. Expect the Patriots to rely on their power running game to keep the Steelers offense off the field (and that will keep the clock moving). New England has played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Under the Total. Pittsburgh had an underrated defense last season that led the NFL with 52 sacks. The Steelers limited their home hosts to just 22.5 PPG last year along with only 325.0 total YPG — and they held their last three opponents to just 311.3 total YPG. This defense will improve with the addition of rookie first-round draft pick Devin Bush who provides them the ball-hawking linebacker they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and this includes them playing 9 straight games on the road Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 16th in Pittsburgh where the Steelers pulled off a 17-10 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys scored 24.4 PPG while averaging 365.2 total YPG last season. Much of those numbers were without the services of wide receiver Amari Cooper who they acquired midseason from the Raiders. The former Alabama star was just what the Dallas offense needed as it provided quarterback Dak Prescott a legitimate target who could still get open against the opposing teams best man-to-man defender. The Cowboys scored 27.3 PPG while averaging 369.0 total YPG in their last three games of the season. Cooper’s presence also forces opposing defenses to not play eight defenders in the box to slow down running back Ezekiel Elliott who is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. The initial plan is for Elliott to play 20 to 25 snaps — and he should be effective since it is pretty seamless for running backs to get back into the flow of the offense even without much practice time. Dallas has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC East. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against NFC foes. The Giants offense will center around Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The last time we saw the Cowboys run defense, they allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing in Dallas. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys have the swagger of a team that believes they will pick right up where they left off after losing on the road to the eventual NFC representative in the Super Bowl in the Rams. But teams that treat Week One of the new season as just the carryover of the previous week of last year tend to get bit — Chicago was the latest example of this phenomenon on Thursday night when they were upset at home against a divisional rival in the Packers. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening weeks to a new season. This is a new that has some kinks to still work out with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. But not only will he have some game rust but there has not been much practice time for him to get back into synch with QB Dak Prescott and the rest of this offense. Elliott will likely get 20 to 25 touches in this game. The Cowboys host this contest but they have only failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Dallas defense is a concern as well entering the new season. They entered that playoff game with the Rams having allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.1% of their passes since Week 13 with those QBs averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt along with seven touchdown passes to just one interception. They also had registered just five sacks in their previous five games before failing to sack Jared Goff even once in that loss. The Cowboys run defense then allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. Here comes Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The defense should be much improved with the additions of Jabrill Peppers (in the Odell Beckham trade) along with the drafting of Clemson’s massive defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and Georgia cover cornerback Deandre Baker in the first round of the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: New York has certainly had this opening game circled after getting swept by the Cowboys last year. The Giants played in twelve games last year decided by one scoring possession — and they lost eight of those contests for a -4 net close loss number. They should be very competitive in this contest (and don’t be shocked if they follow Green Bay’s lead and pull off the road upset against a divisional rival coming off a playoff run — but still take the points for some insurance). 25* NFL NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (455) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (456). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) looks to improve their 7-9 record from last season where they missed the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) comes off a 9-7 season where they lost in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs in a 20-14 loss in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles are a trendy pick to return to the Super Bowl with quarterback Carson Wentz healthy again at quarterback. But after playing much in the preseason, Wentz made still be a bit rusty for this opening game after not playing in last year’s playoffs because of injury. Timing is important when executing Run-Pass Option plays so the lack of repetitions in the preseason exhibition games where the conditions more closely approximate the regular-season atmosphere (as compared to inter-team scrimmages which remain controlled environments). Philadelphia was 5-3 at home last year but they only outscored their eight guests by +2.1 PPG — so asking them to cover a point spread of more than a touchdown against a division rival is asking a lot of this team. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of September. Washington is an ugly dog opening the season after the highly publicized holdout of their left tackle Trent Williams that remains unresolved. The Skins are also without one of their best-receiving targets in tight end Jordan Reed who is still in the concussion protocol. And the new Washington quarterback is Case Keenum who no one gets excited about. But the Skins have running back Derrius Guice healthy again who looked poised for an outstanding season before suffering a season-ending leg injury last year. Washington also has a very underrated with Alabama alumni Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen up front and Josh Norman still patrolling the secondary. The Skins held their home hosts to only 20.2 PPG last year which helped them be dangerous road warriors where they won four of their games. This unit should be improved with the addition of first-round draft pick in defensive end Montez Sweat from Mississippi State and strong safety Landon Collins from the Giants via free agency. Washington has covered the point spread in 3 straight games on the road getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games in the month of September, the Skins have covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: Washington certainly had this game circled in the offseason after being swept by the Eagles in their two regular-season games by 28-13 and then 24-0 scores. That shutout loss at home on December 30th really stung — look for the Skins to be a very tough out for Philly this afternoon. 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Washington Redskins (455) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Tulane (1-0) enters this game looking to build off their 42-14 win over Florida International as a 3-point favorite back on August 29th. Auburn (1-0) eked out a 27-21 win over Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday against Oregon.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Freshman quarterback Bo Nix was shaky in his collegiate debut — he completed only 13 of 31 passes for 177 yards. Head coach Gus Malzahn kept the playbook limited with his freshman with the team doing little to stretch the field against a Ducks defense that is certainly not elite. While I expect Nix to get more of the playbook tonight, it is telling that Malzahn did not feel comfortable in his quarterback to start airing the ball out — even when they were trailing for most of that game with Oregon. But perhaps that is because he had complete confidence in his defense that returned seven starters including an outstanding defensive line from a unit that ranked 14th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 19.2 PPG. The Tigers held the Ducks with their Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Justin Herbert to just 332 yards of offense in that victory. Moving forward, Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now the Tigers return home from that game played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total. Auburn has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September after last week’s game fell below the 55.5 point Total. Furthermore, the Under is 18-7-2 in the Tigers’ last 27 games against teams outside the SEC — and the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. Tulane has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with eight days of rest and preparation. The Green Wave generated 545 yards of offense against the Golden Panthers under senior quarterback Justin McMillan. Tulane has then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Green Wave gained 350 of those yards on the ground as they flexed their muscles in controlling the line of scrimmage — and this will likely be the strategy in pulling this upset. Tulane plays at a fast tempo under new offensive coordinator Will Hall — but running the football still shortens the game with the clock continually moving. The Green Wave have played 5 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Tulane has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams from the SEC. 25* CFB ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas State Bobcats (354) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (353). THE SITUATION: Texas State (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 41-7 loss at Texas A&M two Thursdays ago as a 33.5-point underdog. Wyoming (1-0) comes off a 37-31 upset victory at home over Missouri as a 15-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s victory was the result of a number of very fortunate events for them. They surrendered 537 yards to the Tigers while gaining just 389 yards of offense — and 136 of those yards came off two long broken tackle touchdown runs of 61 and 75 yards. The Cowboys enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in that game while scoring on a 30-yard fumble recovering. Wyoming only generated 15 first downs while giving up 28 first downs to Mizzou. Laramie is often a difficult place to play for teams traveling from out east — playing 7200 square feet above sea level is a challenging experience for players unfamiliar with those conditions. The Cowboys are 23-15 straight-up in their last thirty-eight games at home. But the flip side of that coin is that Wyoming is just 9-26 in their last thirty-five games on the road. It is even worse for this team in the rare times they are favored away from home as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games laying 3.5 to 7 points. QB Kelly Bryant torched this Cowboys defense for 423 yards — and they have then failed to chef the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Wyoming had one of the most underrated defenses in the nation last year that ranked 19th in the nation by allowing just 326.2 total YPG but they lost five multiyear starters from that team. Furthermore, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in the month of September. I am comfortable giving Texas State a pass last week after getting blown out on the road to Texas A&M. This team should be much better from their 3-9 team from last season with nineteen starters back from that group. First-year head coach Jake Spavital along with offensive coordinator Bob Stitt should get this offense moving sooner rather than later. The Bobcats suffered three net close losses decided by one scoring possession which obscured that they were only outgained by -60.8 net YPG in Mountain West Conference play which usually produces a much better record than their 1-7 conference mark. Texas State did not score in the first half of their game with the Aggies — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Bobcats have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring double-digits in their last game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming will be mistaking a mistake if they take Texas State lightly — but it will likely be difficult for them to not suffer an emotional letdown after knocking off an SEC team. The Bobcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Don’t be surprised if Spavital rallies his team to pull the upset this week — but take the points for valuable insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Texas State Bobcats (354) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (353).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (314) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (313). THE SITUATION: Purdue (0-1) looks to rebound from a 34-31 upset loss at Nevada last Friday night as an 11-point underdog. Vanderbilt (0-1) enter this game coming off a 30-6 loss at home to Georgia as a 22-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue held a 24-7 halftime lead over the Wolf Pack along with a 31-14 third-quarter lead before a rash of turnovers let Nevada get back into that game before they stole that game with a last-second field goal. A -5 net turnover margin spoiled the Boilermaker’s 519 to 404 net yardage edge in that game on the road. Third-year head coach Jeff Brohm should ensure his team responds well in this game — they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Purdue has also won 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. The Boilermakers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Now Purdue returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Twelve starters return from last year’s 6-7 team that got crushed in the Music City Bowl to Auburn by a 63-14 score but who also upset Ohio State earlier in the year by a 49-20 score. The Boilermakers are led by senior quarterback Elijah Sindelar who completed 34 of 52 passes for 423 yards and four touchdown passes last week. Purdue should move the ball again against this Commodores defense that surrendered 481 yards to the Bulldogs last week. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in the last game. Purdue has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the month of September — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Big Ten. Vanderbilt may struggle to pick themselves off the mat from their loss to Georgia has this have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns against an SEC rival. Head coach Derek Mason had to replace a four-year starter at quarterback in Kyle Shurmur in the offseason. He brought in grad transfer Riley Neal from Ball State who won the job over Shurmur’s backup last season in Deuce Wallace — but Neal might have very well lost his starting gig with the Cardinals if he had stayed with that program. Neal completed 14 of 25 passes but for only 85 yards last week while leading an offense that generated just 225 total yards. The Commodores have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. Vanderbilt was 6-7 last year after losing to Baylor in the Texas Bowl by a 45-38 score. Mason has only twelve starters back from that team — and only two of the top seven tacklers on defense returned. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. The Commodores have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important non-conference game for both teams who do not want to start the season 0-2 with challenging conference games looming which will make returning to a bowl game difficult. Purdue has better starting talent than Vandy — and home-field advantage should help them win this game by more than a touchdown. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Purdue Boilermakers (314) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). THE SITUATION: Missouri (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an upset 37-31 loss at Wyoming last Saturday despite being a 15-point favorite. West Virginia (1-0) comes off a 20-13 win at home over James Madison as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Missouri raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter while dominating the yardage battle with the Cowboys by a 144 to 28 margin. But then the turnover bug hit the Tigers with Wyoming taking full advantage to go into halftime with a 27-17 lead. Missouri outgained the Cowboys by a dominant 537 to 389 yardage margin but their -3 net turnover margin cost them the game — including a fumble that Wyoming returned for a 33-yard touchdown. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss on the road laying at least a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Missouri has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 33 of their last 49 home games after a loss on the road. The silver lining for this team was the strong play under center of quarterback Kelly Bryant. The former Clemson quarterback completed 31 of 48 passes for 423 yards with two touchdowns. The transfer looks to be a fine replacement for the graduated Drew Lock who was drafted by the Denver Broncos. Thirteen starters returned from an 8-5 team last year with seven joining Bryant on offense and six starters along with five of the top seven tacklers back on defense. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia escaped suffering an upset loss to a James Madison team that ranks #2 in the nation in the FCS. But it is not a good sign for this team that the Dukes dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. That does not bode well when now traveling to face an SEC team with five offensive linemen that all weigh at least 310 pounds. The Mountaineers survived that game through special teams and turnovers. West Virginia blocked a field goal and recovered a muffed point en route to a +3 net turnover advantage. The Mountaineers only generated 13 first downs against the Dukes defense while losing the yardage battle by a 328 to 294 margin. This is a football program in transition after head coach Dana Holgorsen departed on his own volition to take the head coaching job at Houston after an 8-4 season that finished with a 34-18 loss to Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. Perhaps Holgorsen saw the writing on the wall this year with only three starters returning on offense from a group that lost its top five players including QB Will Grier, their top three wide receivers, and left tackle Yodney Cajuste. The new head coach is Neal Brown who did a good job at Troy — but only after enduring a 4-9 record in his first year rebuilding that program. Brown brought in Oklahoma grad transfer Austin Kendall to be his starting quarterback — but he kept him on a short leash least week with him mostly dinking-and-dunking to completing 27 passes of his 42 attempts for 260 yards. West Virginia only rushed for 34 yards in that game which is not a good sign traveling on the road to Mizzou — they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: West Virginia is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They face a more talented team that will be very angry after suffering a bad upset loss on the road. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Marshall (1-0) looks to build off their 56-17 win over VMI last Saturday as a 44-point favorite. Boise State (1-0) is riding high after pulling off a 36-31 upset win in Tallahassee against Florida State as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos found themselves trailing by 24-6 and 31-13 scores in the second quarter before skunking the Seminoles in the second-half by a 17-0 score to pull off that 18-point comeback for the upset win. Florida State head coach Willie Taggart blamed a lack of conditioning for his team’s collapse with many players dealing with cramps in the August Florida heat. Boise State will not receive similar luck this week against this well-coached Marshall team in the tenth season under head coach Doc Holliday. The key for this Broncos team this year will be the play of their quarterback after seeing their four-year starter in Brett Rypien finally graduate and move on to the NFL in the offseason. The highly touted true freshman, Hank Bachmeier, played as great as could possibly be expected on Saturday by completing 30 of 51 passes for 407 yards. But this sets up this very young quarterback and the rest of this team to suffer a huge emotional letdown after last week’s second-half triumph. Remember, these are the same players that dug that 18-point hole. Despite the mystique of the blue field in Boise, the Broncos have not been a very good team relative to point spread expectations at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. This remains a team that lost a number of important pieces on offense last year from their 10-3 team. Besides replacing the four-year starting quarterback, the Broncos lost their workhorse running back, Alexander Mattison, who rushed for over 1400 yards last year along with their top two receivers. These veterans helped the offense convert on 52.5% of their 3rd downs which was 3rd best in the nation — that is a number that is bound to regress. Boise State is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The defense returns seven starters but lost four of their top five players in tackles-for-loss. But this is a unit that only picked off seven passes which is the fewest for this program since 1968. The Broncos were also third-best in the nation by recovering 74% of the fumbles they saw on the field. If that number regresses back to the expected 50% mean, this team probably does not win 10 times last year. Marshall should be very excited to prove that they belong in the conversation regarding the top non-Power Five conference teams in the FBS. They return fourteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that concluded their season by crushing South Florida in their stadium by a 38-20 score in the Gasparilla Bowl. Quarterback Isaiah Green led an offense that generated 503 yards against the Bulls — he enters his sophomore year with confidence who will likely take a big step in his development. Green completed 18 of 28 passes (to eleven different targets) for 238 yards and four touchdown passes while adding another 46 yards on the ground in a good tune-up for this team. The Thundering Herd bring an underrated defense into this game as well with six starters back from last year’s group that was tied for 27th in the nation by limiting opponents to just 338.7 total YPG. The Marshall run defense ranked 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 104.3 rushing YPG — and this was no fluke after ranking 19th in the nation in run defense in 2017. The Thundering Herd held VMI to only 56 rushing yards while outrushing them by 222 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Marshall has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in fifteen straight games — so they will likely force the true freshman quarterback to beat them. The Thundering Herd forced 24 turnovers last season — don’t be surprised if an overconfident Bachmeier makes some mistakes tonight. Holliday usually has his team ready to play in the early part of the season — they are 15-7-3 ATS in their last 25 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall embraces the role of the underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games getting the points which include them covering the point spread in five of their last six games on the road as an underdog. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) looks to improve on a disappointing 6-9-1 campaign last year. Chicago (0-0) enters the new season looking to build off their 12-5 season that culminated in their heartbreaking 16-15 loss in the NFC Wildcard playoff game at home in Soldier Field against Philadelphia where a missed field goal that hit the uprights cost them the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It may be surprising to some that the oddsmakers have installed the Over/Under for this game to begin at 46 (or higher) in most locations. The Bears only had three games all of last season where the Total was set at 46 or higher. Chicago led the NFL last year by allowing just 17.7 PPG. The DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders to measure defensive efficiency ranks that Bears’ defense last season as one of the ten best ever since 1998. And while there are good reasons to be bullish on the defense again this year with Khalil Mack taking part in a full offseason, negative regression remains highly likely. Historically dominant defenses more often than not find it difficult to maintain that uber-elite level of play. Chicago ended opposing drives with an interception in 14.8% of their drives which was not only the best mark in the NFL but the highest mark in the last four seasons. This defense is simply not likely to kill as many drives with interceptions this year. This defense suffered four big losses in the offseason. The first two were with their coaching staff with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio taking the head coaching job in Denver with him taking defensive backs coach Ed Donatell with him. Donatell is an outstanding skills development coach. Sean McVay considers the Fangio defenses the most difficult to scheme against given the sophisticated ways he disguises his coverages. Remember, Fangio was the defensive architect for those outstanding 49ers defenses in the Jim Harbaugh era. Chuck Pagano takes over as defensive coordinator — and while he had good defenses in his tenure as the coordinator in Baltimore, only one of his six defenses in his tenure at Indianapolis ranked in the top half of the NFL. Chicago also lost two good players in their secondary in strong safety Adrian Ames and nickel back Bryce Callahan. Ames was the best tackler in their secondary while Callahan provided elite slot coverage skills. Replacements Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Buster Skrine are serviceable but still downgrades in talent. On offense, second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky did his best work at home where he led an offense that scored 26.7 PPG while averaging 365.7 YPG which was over +20 net YPG above their season average. Trubisky enjoyed an encouraging sophomore campaign in the league where he made significant strides after a shaky rookie campaign under NFL Coach of the Year Matt Nagy. Over his last four regular-season games, Trubisky averaged a nice Passer Rating of 102.4. He should have success against this Packers defense that Football Outsiders ranked as fourth-worst in the NFL last year with their metrics. This unit did add Ames from the Bears via free agency to bolster their secondary — but this group has also seen attrition with them cutting veteran defensive lineman Mike Daniels and then losing starting linebacker Oren Burks to a pectoral injury. Green Bay drafted Rashan Gary as the 13th pick in the first round of the NFL draft — but he struggled in training camp while adapting to a new position at outside linebacker which is a strange way to deploy a player who was at best at Michigan when playing defensive tackle. The Packers allowed their home hosts to score 29.4 PPG last year while averaging 374 total YPG. But the Green Bay offense should see significant improvement in an updated offense of rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers has a down year last season while clearly fed up with previous head coach Mike McCarthy. But don’t underestimate the negative impact of the knee injury he sustained early in the season. With a chip on his shoulder in the aftermath of the McCarthy dismissal, Rodgers looked poised for a big bounce-back season. The Packers averaged 383 YPG on the road last year which was over 10 YPG more than what they averaged at home in Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played a decisive 37 of their last 55 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Additionally, Green Bay has played 11 of their last 14 games over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Packers have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this included them playing seven of their last 8 opening weeks to a new season Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Despite being slowed with that bum knee last year, Rodgers was careful with the football as he only threw two interceptions. His sound decision making helps explain why these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (452) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (451). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) enters the new season looking to build off their 12-5 season that culminated in their heartbreaking 16-15 loss in the NFC Wildcard playoff game at home in Soldier Field against Philadelphia where a missed field goal that hit the uprights cost them the victory. Green Bay (0-0) looks to improve on a disappointing 6-9-1 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: There are a host of reasons why Chicago will have a worse record this season despite possibly being a better team overall. For starters, the Bears lost the second-fewest number of starters games to injuries last season which will be difficult for them to sustain. But this is a healthy team now that has been anxious to get back to Soldier Field to redeem themselves from that devastating playoff loss to the Eagles. Chicago was outstanding at home last year where they finished 7-2 with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The Bears outgained their visitors by +78.5 net YPG as well given the strength of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s better play at home at Soldier Field. Chicago averaged 26.7 PPG at home while generating 365.7 total YPG. The Bears are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games as the favorite. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Bears will once again have an outstanding defense led by Khalil Mack — they led the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG. And while they also allowed 299.7 total YPG (3rd in the NFL), that number dropped to 287.2 total YPG when playing at home. Furthermore, Chicago typically plays very well against fellow NFC North foes as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against divisional foes. Green Bay hopes to bounce-back from a 6-9-1 season — but this may be a team moving in the wrong direction considering that they are just 13-18-1 over the last two seasons. They only defeated one team with a winning record last year. Matt LaFleur will be making his debut as an NFL head coach in this game despite overseeing an offense in Tennessee last year that ranked just 25th in the league. But the offense looks in far better shape than the Packers defense that Football Outsiders ranked as fourth-worst in the NFL last year with their metrics. This unit did add Ames from the Bears via free agency to bolster their secondary — but this group has also seen attrition with them cutting veteran defensive lineman Mike Daniels and then losing starting linebacker Oren Burks to a pectoral injury. Green Bay drafted Rashan Gary as the 13th pick in the first round of the NFL draft — but he struggled in training camp while adapting to a new position at outside linebacker which is a strange way to deploy a player who was at best at Michigan when playing defensive tackle. The Packers allowed their home hosts to score 29.4 PPG last year while averaging 374 total YPG. Green Bay is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings last year with Green Bay winning their first meeting in September by a 24-23 score before the Bears avenged that loss in December back at Soldier Field with their 24-17 victory as a 5.5-point favorite. The Packers have been overvalued in these divisional rivalries as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 meetings with an NFC North opponents — including failing to cover the point spread in their last four divisional games. 10* NFL Green Bay-Chicago NBC-TV Special with the Chicago Bears (452) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville was a complete dumpster fire last year under head coach Bobby Petrino who checked out from working hard as a football coach a number of years ago. The Cardinals were kryptonite to bettors last year as they suffered point spread losses by an average of -17.5 PPG — and they failed to cover the point spread by -21.8 PPG over their last five games when the players had clearly quit on the team. Kudos to those who consistently bet against Louisville down the stretch of the season (I just stayed away since any nominal increase in effort would have likely produced a point spread cover as double-digit dogs in those games). The Cardinals still have talent that first-year head coach Scott Satterfield has inherited including fourteen returning starters. While the Louisville defense allowed at least 52 points in each of their last five games, they held their first five opponents to a more manageable 26.0 PPG along with 385.8 total YPG — and those numbers are a better guide as to what to expect this season before this team went off the rails. Satterfield did a great job rebuilding the Appalachian State program — and while it will take awhile to rebuild the culture at Louisville, he will get this team playing hard again. The defense seems rejuvenated playing for defensive coordinator Bryan Brown after their humiliating end to last season — he brings an attacking system that emphasizes speed and smarts that was very effective for the Mountaineers. Satterfield also tapped Cort Dennison to serve as the co-defensive coordinator as he returns to the program after coaching at Oregon last year after a four-year stint as an assistant defensive coach for Petrino with the Cardinals — so he knows the players when they were younger and playing in a much more confident group. Notre Dame may be looking past this Louisville team after losing to the eventual national champions in the College Football Semifinals in their last game. Facing the Cardinals is a steep drop in glamour after hosting Michigan to begin last season. The Fighting Irish defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. On offense, the Irish are excited about what senior Ian Book can do as the starter for the entire season — they averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight regular-season starts last year (before being exposed by the outstanding Clemson defense). But Book is missing two of his important targets in wide receiver Michael Young and tight end Cole Kmet who are both out with collarbone injuries. Notre Dame is also dealing with some significant attrition on offense with running back Dexter Williams along with wide receiver Miles Boykin and tight end Alize Mack moving on to the NFL. The Irish are not quite at the level of the elite college football teams in their ability to just reload after seeing significant losses to the NFL. The last time Notre Dame lost this much talent, they suffered a 4-8 season the next year.

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have won twenty-two of their last twenty-six games — but they have also won their last seven games decided by one possession including four net close wins by 8 points or less last season. While Kelly deserves credit for the leadership he has provided for this team to win these close games, those results help to inflate the perceived value of this team. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when laying 14.5 or more points. 10* CFB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish return seven starters with an offense that might be the most potent in head coach Brian Kelly’s ten years with the program. Kelly’s decision to elevate Ian Book to be his starting quarterback despite a 3-0 start to the season was inspired as the team averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight starts. The move to Book gave the Notre Dame offense a legitimate passing threat that they have not had in years to balance their strong rushing attack. Book threw at least two touchdown passes in all eight of his regular-season starts. While the Irish are dealing with injuries to junior wide receiver Michael Young and junior tight end Cole Kmet, the Irish have depth at the running back and wide receiver skill positions. The offense also has the benefit of four returning starters on offense. However, the Notre Dame defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Notre Dame has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and this includes them playing four of their last five games on the road Over the Total with the number set in that range. Louisville cannot help but be better on defense this season after they ranked 122nd in the nation by allowing 483.6 total YPG. While ten starters return from that group, new head coach Scott Satterfield and his defensive coordinator at Appalachian State, Bryan Brown, have a major rebuilding task to clean up the hot mess that Bobby Petrino left behind after being fired late in the season. The Cardinals surrendered at least 52 points in each of their last five games — so it will likely be a long road back for this group. Louisville’s improvement should happen faster on the offensive side of the football under Satterfield who emphasized more running in the spread offensive attacks as the head coach at Appalachian State. Satterfield has tapped junior quarterback Jawon Pass to be his starter with a simplified playbook from the 2007 NFL playbook Petrino was still relying on from his year with the Atlanta Falcons. Satterfield will likely also give reps to Malik Cunningham who led the team in rushing last year and can better execute the rushing attack under center. The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Louisville has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing four of their last five home games Over the Total as the dog. And in their last 22 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, the Cardinals have played 14 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville averaged just 19.8 PPG last year (tied for 121s in the nation) while Notre Dame surrendered just 18.2 PPG (13th in the nation). Look for the Cardinals to score at least 20 points tonight with their offense improved and the Irish defense losing three players to the NFL. With the Irish a favorite approaching 20 points, Louisville scoring 20 points should put this game way Over the number given the number the Notre Dame is likely to put up in this game. 25* CFB ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 8-5 after suffering a humiliating 70-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. Oklahoma (0-0) has twelve starters back from the group that lost to Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinals by a 45-34 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners led the nation last year by averaging 48.4 PPG along with generating 570.3 total YPG. After seeing their offense improve their numbers in each of the last four seasons, the Regression Gods were likely to make a visit to Norman this year. But with Jalen Hurts the new starting quarterback for this team after his transfer from Alabama. Hurts has outstanding leadership skills as he led (the uber-talented) Crimson Tide to a 24-2 record as a starter. But Hurts does not have the same talent as Tua Tagovailoa nor Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray who have been the two Heisman Trophy winners that Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley has had at his disposal over the last two years. In four playoff game appearances, Hurts completed just 43% of his passes for the Tide while averaging just 3.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. There is a reason he was benched at halftime of the 2017 National Championship game against Georgia. The Sooners are also almost completely rebuilding their offensive line with four starters from last year departed to play in the NFL. Mayfield had the benefit of five returning starters on the offensive line two years with Murray having three returning starters last year. Hurts is not getting the same good opening hand as his two predecessors at Oklahoma. Even if the Sooners just reach their 48.4 PPG scoring mark from last year in this game, the Under should still be in pretty good shape with them being 23 or so point favorites against the Cougars. Of course, the Oklahoma defense was a mess last year as they ranked last in the Big 12 by allowing 33.3 PPG along with 453.8 total YPG. This unit can probably not help but improve under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who oversaw a very good defense in a previous stint at Washington State. Grinch has installed a new “positionless” scheme that emphasizes aggressiveness and play-making. This may be a better fit than the staler ideas of previous coordinate Mike Stoops. The Sooners’ secondary should be better with three juniors returning as starters who have received a baptism by fire last year. Houston will be installing a new offensive Air Raid scheme under new head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars are happy to have a fully-healthy D’Eriq King back under center after he suffered a season-ending injury in mid-November. But this is an offense that Oklahoma is very familiar with given its deployment by many of the teams in the Big 12. Houston also had defensive issues last season after allowing 37.2 PPG along with 496.4 total YPG. That unit was ravaged by injuries — they allowed a more manageable 28.0 PPG in their first six games before their depleted unit surrendered 45.0 PPG in their final seven games. This defense will have something to prove after their embarrassing effort against Army in their bowl game where the team had checked out on head coach Major Applewhite. Holgorsen has proclaimed that playing good defense is a “high priority” for him — he has hired a good defensive coordinator in Joe Cauthen whose attacking style running the defense at Arkansas State led to 146 sacks over the last four seasons. Holgorsen has added six junior college transfers to improve the talent of this group led by cornerback Damarion Williams who was a junior college All-American last year. The Cougars have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the first half of the regular season. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the Big 12.

FINAL TAKE: With the Total eclipsing the 80 point mark in some spots, it will take a high level of offensive production of both teams to reach the Over. Don’t be surprised if both of these potent offenses make some execution mistakes in this opening game. This logic helps to inform a historical angle supporting the Under that has been 75% effective since 1992. In games in the first two weeks of the season with the Total set at 63 or higher between two teams from major 1-A conferences, when at least one of the teams returns a starting quarterback from the previous season, the game finished Under the Total in 40 of these last 53 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:44 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). THE SITUATION: Auburn (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished off an 8-5 season by destroying Purdue by a 63-14 score in the Music City Bowl. Oregon (0-0) has seventeen starters back from their 9-4 campaign last year that concluded with a 7-6 win over Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Ducks are intriguing to many bettors with all those returning starters to a program that once represented the Pac-12 on the national stage in high profile games like this. Oregon also has one of the top NFL quarterback projects in Justin Herbert who bypassed going pro to return to this team. But this Ducks team has made most of their noise as of late when playing at home in Autzen Stadium where they enjoy a significant advantage. But Oregon has lost eight of their last twelve games away from home on neutral fields or hostile environments. The Ducks were outscored in those games by -5.1 net PPG while scoring just 25 PPG. Oregon has also been outgained by -61 net YPG in those twelve away games. This compares unfavorably to their 12-2 record in their last fourteen games at home where they are scoring 44.4 PPG while outscoring their opponents by +19.4 PPG. Herbert was not nearly as effective away from home last year as well. The Ducks scored only 27.3 PPG on the road last year which was -7.5 PPG lower than their season average — and they also averaged just 209 passing YPG in those games which was almost 40 yards less than their 248 passing YPG mark overall. The Oregon defense is also an issue for this team if they wish to take a step up in competition — they ranked just 55th in the nation by allowing 385.9 total YPG. The Ducks have lost four straight games away from home when facing a ranked opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Auburn will be starting a freshman at quarterback in Bo Nix after he enjoyed a prolific high school career in Alabama. But this is a program that is well versed in high profile games like this. Besides their SEC competition including the Iron Bowl with Alabama every year, the Tigers defeated Washington in Atlanta on the neutral field of Mercedez Benz Stadium last year by a 21-16 score — and I consider that Huskies team to be much better than this Ducks team now. Auburn has won eleven of their last thirteen opening games to a new season. Oregon has received tons of accolades in the offseason with their five returning starters on the offensive line who lead the entire FBS with 153 combined starts between them. But the Tigers have five 5th year senior starters on their offensive line to help protect Nix. Furthermore, Auburn may very well have the best defensive line in the country. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have won six straight games straight-up against Pac-12 opponents when playing on a neutral field with their win over the Huskies adding to that streak last year. While the departed Jarrett Stidham has looked very good in the preseason for the Patriots (and he just won the backup job today with New England releasing Brian Hoyer), Nix may be a better fit for the Gus Malzahn offense given his ability to move the ball with his legs. 10* CFB Oregon-Auburn ABC-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). THE SITUATION: Toledo (0-0) returns eleven starters from last year’s 7-6 team that lost to Florida International in the Bahamas Bowl by a 35-32 score. Kentucky (0-0) has ten starters back from last year’s triumphant 10-3 squad who defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl by a 27-24 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are the only team in the nation to not take a step backward regarding their win-loss record in the last six seasons. Seventh-year head coach Mark Stoops has done a fantastic job building this program. But this Kentucky team will be very hard-pressed to keep that streak alive this season. This is a program that is simply not used to losing All-SEC talent — but Stoops must replace three players on defense who have taken their talents to the NFL in safety Mike Edwards, linebacker Jordan Jones and their leader on defense in linebacker Josh Allen who bypassed going to the NFL as a junior last season. The Wildcats return only four starters on defense. The identity of the offense will also change with running back Benny Snell decided to go pro. Kentucky will rely on a committee of running backs this season while putting more of the onus on offense on junior quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats were a defense-first team last year that leaned heavily on Snell — a change in identity may not fit the skill set of Wilson who passed for only 1889 yards last year while throwing just 11 touchdowns along with eight interceptions. Kentucky finished 5-3 in SEC play last year but they were outgained by -18 net YPG in those games. This team has pulled ten upset victories in the last three years under Stoops — but being a double-digit favorite is a role they are not nearly as comfortable with embracing. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games when laying the points. Additionally, Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in six straight non-conference games at home. Toledo will be relishing this opportunity to knock off a Power-Five school. They should get much better play from quarterback Mitchell Guadagni who returns for his senior season. Guadagni was slowed by both a concussion and a broken collarbone last year but still managed an efficient 13-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. He is supported by a backfield of Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour who combined to rush for 1482 yards last year. The Rockets have typically been tough road warriors under Candle as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road. Toledo has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the month of August.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky would like to think they are simply reloading this season — but this is a program that more often than not finds themselves rebuilding after outlier seasons like last year. Look for the Rockets to give this Wildcats team all that they can handle. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). THE SITUATION: Ball State (0-0) returns seventeen starters from their team that finished 4-8 last season. Indiana (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s 5-7 team. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals were hit hard by transfers in the offseason with six players leaving the program. The offense lost two incumbent starters from last year in senior quarterback Riley Neal who transferred to Vanderbilt and senior running back James Gilbert who moved to Kansas State. There is an argument to be had that perhaps both these players were going to lose their jobs this season. On the other hand, Neal had started 32 games for Ball State while throwing for 7393 yards and 46 touchdown passes while Gilbert rushed for 2806 yards in his career with the program — and that was good enough to entice two football programs in Power Five conferences. Ball State was just 102nd in the FBS last year by scoring just 4.2 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. Any improvements on offense will likely not materialize right away. As it is, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. I do expect to see significant improvements from the Ball State defense that returns nine starters. This is the second year for this unit playing in a 3-4 formation. This move worked for the first seven games last year under defensive coordinator David Elson as they hold those first seven opponents to just 23.9 PPG. But injuries eventually took their toll as the Cardinals allowed their last five opponents to score 44.4 PPG as their lack of depth was exposed. Back at full health and with better depth from the experiences from last season, Ball State should be much improved in the second year playing in the 3-4 look. They return seventeen players who registered at teals ten tackles last year. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against Big Ten foes. Ball State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. The Hoosiers defense regressed last year with only three returning starters — they allowed 423.8 total YPG which was 83.7 YPG more than what they surrendered in 2017 when they ranked 27th in the nation in total defense. Don’t be surprised if this unit approaches those strong defensive numbers from two years ago with seven starters back along with eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year. Tom Allen feels confident enough with this group that he promoted linebackers coach Kane Wommack to defensive coordinator to free up his time focus exclusively with his head coaching duties. Allen has already made a big move by tapping redshirt freshman Michael Penix as the starting quarterback to replace returning starter Peyton Ramsey. Penix has a better runner with a stronger arm — but with this team playing in a new system under first-year offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, it might take some time for this unit to gel. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They also have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana won last year’s rivalry game between these two schools by a 38-10 score with that result falling well short of the 62.5 point Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 7-6 after upsetting Missouri in the Liberty Bowl by a 38-33 score. Oregon State (0-0) returns sixteen starters from last year’s team that stumbled to a 2-10 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State is usually a reliable double-digit favorite even on the road under head coach Mike Gundy beginning his fifteenth year with the program. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After three straight seasons with double-digit victories, Oklahoma State took a step back last year. Despite scoring 38.4 PPG (13th in the FBS) and averaging 500.2 total YPG (10th in the FBS), the offense took a step back from the previous season in large part because their quarterbacks completed only 59.4% of their passes while throwing 13 interceptions. In 2017, the Cowboys scored 45.0 PPG while generating 569.8 total YPG which was 4th and 2nd best in the country. Gundy may have found a gem to be his new offensive coordinator in Sean Gleeson who ran a very innovative offense at Princeton. Oklahoma State will have the benefit of surprise regarding what specialty plays Gleeson unveils in his debut with this offense. The Cowboys have not named a starting quarterback between redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and graduate transfer Dru Brown who both were on the roster last season learning this offense. Gleeson often used more than one QB at Princeton so don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State rotates both quarterbacks tonight to confuse the Beavers with different looks. The Cowboys remain loaded with talent at the skill positions with three of their top four receivers returning this season — headlined by junior All-American Tylan Wallace — along with running back Chuba Hubbard who averaged over 100 rushing YPG against the gauntlet of Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU and Missouri. Gundy’s teams start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of August. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside the Big-12. And in their last 17 contests in expected high-scoring affairs with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. The defense should improve in the second season under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Oregon State’s passing attack is the strength of their offense with returning starters at wide receiver and a sixth-year senior Jake Luton who has received medical exemptions after injuries have limited him to just nine starters in the last two seasons. But the strength of the Cowboys defense will likely be their secondary with all four starters returning. Oregon State will be without their top wideout in the speedy Trevon Bradford as the senior is out with a back injury. The Beavers may also be without their senior safety Jalen Moore who is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. These are two tough opening week injuries that will make it more difficult for Oregon State to stay competitive in this game. The Beavers were outscored by -20 PPG last season while also losing the yardage battle by -132 net YPG — and that margin was even worse in Pac-12 play where they were outgained by -178 YPG. Moore had 102 tackles last season — and even with him on the field, Oregon State allowed their opponents to have a Success Rate of 53.4% which was 129th in the FBS. That is an ominous number when facing this powerful Cowboys offensive attack. The Beavers allowed 45.7 PPG along with 536.8 total YPG which both ranked 128th in the nation. Home field has not been much of an advantage for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August.

FINAL TAKE: While the Cowboys allowed 452.5 total YPG last year, they do return five starters from that group which is a good sign for improvement (or at least that this team is undervalued right now) — and that helps place Oklahoma State into an early-season historical angle that has been 69% effective since 1992. In games played in the first two weeks of the season, road teams who allowed at least 400 YPG last season but return at least five defensive starters have then covered the point spread in 61 of the last 88 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (0-0) return thirteen starters from a team that finished just 1-11 last season. UMass (0-0) has eight starters returning from a team that was 4-8 last year playing as an independent.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chris Ash is on the hot seat in his fourth year in the program with a 7-29 record in his tenure. Rutgers has particularly struggled in Big Ten play where they are just 3-24 in the Ash era. It is very important for this team to get off to a good start which is why I expect a blowout tonight. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August. There are reasons for optimism. The Rutgers defense made dramatic improvements midseason last year when Ash started working directly with the group. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator saw that group allow 26.5 PPG over their last six games which was almost a 10 PPG improvement over the 36.3 PPG they allowed in their first six games. There is also continuity on offense for the first time in a decade with coordinator John McNulty returning for his second season overseeing that group. While the Scarlet Knights have not named a starter, don’t be surprised if McLane Carter is tapped over redshirt sophomore Artur Sitkowski who struggled last year. Carter is a graduate transfer from Texas Tech who was brought in to offer competition to Sitkowski who was last in the nation with a 76.4 Passer Efficiency Rating. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at home. UMass is an appetizing opponent for the Scarlet Knights as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played in the opening two weeks of the season. Former Arkansas State offensive coordinator Walt Bell makes his debut as a head coach tonight for this program that lost all eight of their games last year by double-digits. Bell is considered a good recruiter but it will take time for that strength to start paying dividends wit this program. I expect a significant decline in the offensive production of this team with three-year starter, Andrew Ford, finally graduating. Bell has yet to name a starter between Michael Curtis, Randall West, and junior college transfer Andrew Brito. Without Ford under center, it will be very difficult for UMass to continue to average 7.2 Yards-Per-Play on first down as they did last season which was 8th best in the FBS. On defense, is it good news or bad news that the Minutemen return only three starters from last years team that ranked 123rd in the FBS by allowing 484.8 total YPG? UMass surrendered at least 55 points in six games last season. The cupboard may be very bare for this independent program that lost seven of their top eleven tacklers from last year. The Minutemen registered only ten sacks last year while ranking 125th in the FBS by allowing 274.8 rushing YPG. UMass has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. The Minutemen have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: UMass has lost seven straight road openers since joining the FBS in 2012 — with the average losing margin being -26 PPG. Ash and this Scarlet Knights program needs a blowout victory to establish positive momentum so expect them to keep their foot on the accelerator all night. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-0) looks to build off a 9-5 season that concluded on a down note with a 31-20 loss to Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl. BYU (0-0) finished 7-6 last season after defeating Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 49-18 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: BYU returns seventeen starters from last year’s team along with twenty-six sophomores that played in games last season. But this team still lacks in experience and talent when compared to their in-state rival that is loaded with senior talent and future NFL players. The Cougars have lost eight straight Holy Wars against Utah. They lack a bell-cow running back with Squally Canada graduated from last year’s team. BYU will have a hard time running the football against a stout Utah defense that returns all four starters on the defensive line that finished 5th in the nation by allowing only 100.3 rushing YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the first month of the season. BYU has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight home games as the underdog. Furthermore, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Utah is a sleeper team to make a run for the College Football Playoffs with fourteen returning starters. The Utes won their first nine games last year before enduring two tough injuries to QB Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss with both unable to play the final five games of the season. The Utah offense rattled off five straight games where they scored at least 40 points with a healthy Huntley and Moss. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has bolstered this offense by getting Andy Ludwig to return to the program to serve as their offensive coordinator. Utah averaged 36.9 PPG in their 2008 Sugar Bowl season with Ludwig coordinating the offense. The Utes defense is always quite good under Whittingham — they have held their opponents to under 20 PPG ten times in the past twenty-two seasons while surrounding more than 25.0 PPG just twice during that long span. Utah returns seven starters from a group that ranked 17th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG — and they also ranked 14th in the nation by limiting opponents to only 315.6 total YPG. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: BYU will be looking to avenge a 35-27 loss at Utah last November where they blew a 27-7 third-quarter lead. But the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 meetings with the Utes including their last four opportunities to host Utah. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) looks to rebound from a 3-9 campaign last season. Cincinnati (0-0) enjoyed an 11-2 record last season that was capped by a 35-31 victory over Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA started the season losing seven straight games last year under first-year head coach Chip Kelly. But a rotation of players loaded with freshmen and sophomores continued to improve with the Bruins winning three of their last five games including a 34-27 upset win over USC in the second-to-last game of their season. This should be a vastly improved team this year under a very good head coach in Kelly. The UCLA offense now has a clear direction with sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center who is a great fit for Kelly’s up-tempo spread offense schemes. The Bruins started last year with senior transfer from Michigan Wilton Speight as the starting quarterback who was not a great fit for Kelly’s typical offense since he lacked mobility as a pocket passer. UCLA also saw the emergence of senior running back Joshua Kelley who shined during conference play (including 289 yards against USC) en route to 1243 rushing yards. The Bruins offense averaged only 312 YPG in their first four games but generated 432 total YPG over their last eight games. With nine starters returning this season in the second-year of Kelly’s system, that level of productivity is probably the floor for this team. The defense should also be better after Kelly inherited a unit that allowed 36.6 PPG while ranking 122nd in the FBS by allowing 483.7 total YPG. Last year’s group allowed -2.5 fewer PPG along with 90 less rushing YPG — and with ten starters back which includes four sophomores who started as a freshman last season, this group should also make a big jump in their quality of play. UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Cincinnati returns fourteen starters from last year’s team including redshirt sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who led the team last season. This was an offense that was perhaps too dependent on big plays last season — they averaged 3rd and long on 46.7% of their third downs last year. The biggest concern for the offense is the offensive line that returns only two starters. The defense returns seven starters from an outstanding group that was 11th in the nation by allowing just 303.5 total YPG. But the stout Bearcats defensive line from last season must replace all three of their starters including two outstanding leaders in defensive tackles Cortez Broughton and Marquise Copeland. Cincinnati has not retained much of a home-field advantage as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Furthermore, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening game between these two teams last season where Cincinnati pulled the upset on the road in a Rose Bowl by a 26-17 score despite being a two-touchdown underdog. Too much was being expected about that Kelly team in his first year with the Bruins program — but with an entire offseason to prepare for this rematch, look for UCLA to be primed to pull the upset in this revenge opportunity that can immediately launch this program into gear in Kelly’s second season. But take the points for a little road dog insurance. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) looks to build off an 8-6 campaign last year the culminated in a 31-14 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Hawai’i Bowl. Arizona (0-0) looks to improve on a 5-7 campaign last year where they failed to reach a bowl game in the first year under head coach Kevin Sumlin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are expected to improve this season to at least be bowl eligible this year with fifteen starters back. The hope is that senior quarterback Khalil Tate will return to his 2017 form after an early ankle injury limited his ability to move the ball with his legs. Tate rushed for only 224 yards last year after gaining 1141 yards on the ground in 2017. But Tate regressed as a passer as well as he completed only 56% of his passes which was a 6.2% drop from his 62% completion percentage in his sophomore season. While some of that can be explained away from being stuck in the pocket dependent on his arm, it seems also true that Tate simply struggled to adjust to offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone’s system. Tate is a phenomenal athlete — but he is not the most cerebral of quarterbacks. The pressure will be on him to keep Arizona one step ahead of their opponents with a suspect defense that was 92nd in the nation last year by allowing 432.0 total YPG. Eight starters return for defensive coordinator Marcel Yates — but this is a small unit that still lacks an identity. Sumlin’s teams tend to underachieve on the road — the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by more than a touchdown but no more than 14 points. This is expected to be a high-scoring contest — but the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 63 or higher. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the number set at 70 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at least at 70. Fourth-year head coach Nick Rolovich returns eighteen starters from last year’s group that far exceeded preseason expectations. Junior quarterback Cole McDonald is not being given nearly as much benefit of the doubt as Tate is for Arizona despite his dealing with injuries last season that impacted his productivity in the second half of the season. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 42.0 PPG in their first eight games last year — and McDonald is fully healthy again with eight other returning starters on offense. I expect a big day from the dual-threat QB against this suspect Wildcats defense that finished second-to-last in the Pac-12 in defensive pass efficiency. I also think the defense will take a step in the right direction under Corey Baton who is the first returning coordinator in nine years for this unit. Baton has nine returning starters back.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i typically starts the season strong as they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games in the first two weeks of a new season which includes five straight point spread covers in the month of August. This is a dangerous opening contest on the road for this Arizona team. Expect a close game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) kicks off their season looking to improve on a 7-6 campaign last year that concluded with a 35-3 loss to Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl. Florida (0-0) ended last year on a high note with a 41-15 blowout victory over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field in Orlando, Florida at Camping World Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: The Gators come off a strong final impression from last season with their high profile victory over Michigan on New Year’s Day — but that result probably inflates their value for this opening contest. The Wolverines saw a number of their best players sit out that game to protect their potential draft value including two future first-round NFL picks in Rashan Gary and Devin Bush. And, frankly, Michigan was simply uninspired to play that game after suffering a humiliating loss at Ohio State to close out their season and ruin their potential College Football playoff chances. The bowl committee then linked the Wolverines with a Florida team that they had crushed by a 41-7 score in the 2015 Citrus Bowl before soundly defeating them again to open the 2017 season in AT&T Stadium in Dallas by a 33-17 score. For head coach Dan Mullen, it was easy to motivate his team to pull the upset over Michigan as a measuring stick for the growth of the program in his first year. The Gators return five starters on offense led by junior quarterback Feleipe Franks — but the biggest question mark for that unit is an offensive line that replaces four multi-year starters who had combined for 141 starts in their tenure. Outside of right tackle Jack Delance who is a former four-star recruit who transferred to Gainesville, Mullen has a crop of former three-star recruits who were previously relegated to backup roles before this season. This is a very difficult opening assignment against a stout Miami defense that once again likely sports one of the top ten defensive lines in the country. The Florida defense lost three players to the NFL. While they return eight starters, that unit has holes to fill at linebacker. Miami brings a renewed sense of optimism this season under first-year head coach  Manny Diaz who was the defensive coordinator last season. Diaz accepted the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason before the Hurricanes accepted third-year head coach Mark Richt’s sudden “retirement” which compelled them to reach out to Diaz to wiggle out of his deal with the Owls and return to South Beach as the lead man. Diaz returns six starters from his defense that was 4th in the nation by holding opponents to just 278.9 total YPG. The offense was the bigger problem for the Hurricanes under Richt. Last year, Miami endured a four-game stretch where they failed to eclipse 21 points. Diaz addressed that issue by poaching Dan Enos who was Alabama’s quarterback coach last season (after first agreeing to join the offensive coaching staff at Michigan). The former Central Michigan head coach will install a “spread coast” offense that should be more dynamic. Diaz has also broken from the past by naming redshirt freshman Jarren Williams his starting quarterback. The dual-threat QB must have impressed in fall camp because he had stiff competition from returning starter in N’Kosi Perry and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell who was likely the incumbent quarterback in Columbus this year before the Buckeyes acquired Justin Fields in his transfer from Georgia. Williams has talent at his disposal at the skill positions that Enos’ new offense is designed to get into space.

FINAL TAKE: This Miami team suffered five net upset losses last season as they were a program that expected to find ways to lose games given the quarterback struggles of Perry and the graduated Malik Rosier. The slate is now clean — and this is a great opportunity to hit the ground running by pulling the upset against a high-profile in-state rival in the first meeting between these blue blood programs since 2013. The Gators benefitted from a +12 net turnover margin last year which was tied for 7th best in the nation. But on a neutral field in what will be very hot temperatures, their offensive line will be severely challenged by a tough defensive line that can rotate plenty of bodies. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and the underdog has also covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two rivals. 10* CFB Miami (FL)-Florida ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: In theory, these are two teams that like to run the ball first to establish their passing game. Both these teams have two of the best offensive lines in the NFL. New England lacks a dynamic deep threat after they lost the services of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Los Angeles has evolved into a power run team with the addition of C.J. Anderson to complement running back Todd Gurley. Yet even if this is a low scoring game early on, I expect the final score to reach the Over. In part, because this game shapes up to be very competitive, the closeness of the game should push the scoring up. And as things get more desperate as the game gets into the 4th quarter, both teams’ passing games should take over. We certainly got burned in the AFC Championship Game with New England going into the 4th quarter with a 17-7 score before 38 combined points were scored to ruin our Under play. The Patriots scored 31 points in regulation away from the Meadowlands in less cold weather while reaching 524 total yards of offense after their overtime touchdown drive. Offensive proficiency like that from Tom Brady typically is a sign that New England should be able to keep their offense clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots have played 53 of their last 79 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 40 of their last 61 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Patriots also lit up the good Chargers defense for 41 points in their 13-point win in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points in two straight contests. The extra week of preparation should help Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels scheme for the Rams defense as they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with two weeks of preparation. Additionally, the Patriots have played 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Over the Total. This Super Bowl will feature two defenses that are middle of the pack — the metrics from Football Outsiders ranks New England 16th in the league in defensive DVOA while the Rams rank 19th in that metric. The Patriots allowed 24.8 PPG when playing away from home this season while Los Angeles gives up 24.0 PPG overall for the year. The Rams should dial up a great offensive game plan to take advantage of the Patriots defense that could not stop the Chiefs in the 4th quarter. Los Angeles has played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. The Rams got sensational play from Jared Goff in the second-half of their victory over the Saints. Goff completed 25 of 40 passes for 297 yards after leading his team to their game-winning field goal in overtime. Los Angeles has then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. And while the Rams have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the high-50s for this Super Bowl — but that is warranted given the ideal conditions in the dome stadium and the high level of proficiency from both these offenses. Expect a high-scoring game. 25* NFL Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it being attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play).

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS POINTS: The Rams were one of the top two betting favorites to win the Super Bowl before the season started but I always considered them overrated. Playoff wins over a Cowboys team that finished 3-6 on the road while scoring 17.4 PPG in those contests and then the controversial way they won in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game did little to change this initial opinion. The travesty non-call on wide receiver Tommylee Lewis likely cost the Saints the game — and that call obscured another bad non-call penalty interference on Ted Ginn on the previous drive that probably sets up another New Orleans scoring drive. Admittedly, the officials missed a face mask call on Jared Goff in their game-tying drive that ended in a field goal — but the terrible officiating did more to keep the Rams in the game, all things considered. This represents the signature victory for Los Angeles this season — yet it lacks any definitive statement moving forward given the shaky circumstances from which they escaped with the win. The Rams defeated a still-improving Chargers team earlier in the season before beating Kansas City at home who proved to be a team that simply could not stop any quality offense. I had concerns over whether the Rams’ collections of free agent splurges could come together to form a cohesive unit given the history of Dan Snyder’s teams in Washington and the so-called “dream team” of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles. I have never loved the collection of egos that were assembled with this team — and the two weeks of Super Bowl hype is not the best way for hired guns to mentally prepare for a game of this magnitude. And given that this franchise is facing a salary cap crunch in the offseason, there is tremendous pressure on this team to take advantage of this moment. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Patriots have a substantial advantage at quarterback given the experience of Tom Brady versus a Jared Goff playing in just his fourth playoff game. Goff was exposed late in the season when made uncomfortable against the Bears and Eagles in a game plan that Bill Belichick will have completely mastered. While Goff made some great plays in the second-half against the Saints, this is still a quarterback who did not play nearly as well on the road and who clearly missed his security blanket in wide receiver Cooper Kupp who suffered a season-ending injury midseason. The weakness of the Rams’ defense has always been their linebackers after they traded Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree in the offseason to clear cap room space. That left that group thin on the edge which has been compounded by the decline of inside linebacker Mark Barron whose past Achilles’ injury has seen his speed and athleticism dwindle to subpar levels. Los Angeles is second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt from play-action passes. Brady is going to pick apart this Rams’ defense in the middle of the field with his assortment of weapons that feasts on mismatches like this. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has been stubborn with his cornerback positioning by keeping Talib Aqib on the left side of the field which allowed opponents to exploit Marcus Peters. LA ranked 2nd in the NFL in pass defense on Aqib’s side of the field when he was healthy while ranking 24th in the league on Peters’ left side — and these vulnerabilities are exactly the things that Brady will have a field day exploiting. This is an opportunity for New England to redeem themselves from last year’s loss in the Super Bowl. While the final score indicated that the Eagles won by 8 points, remember that the Patriots had a 33-32 lead with under 3 minutes to go before letting that game slip away. Brady was sensational in that game against a defense better than this Rams’ unit — he completed 28 of 48 passes for 505 yards with three touchdowns all without the services of the injured Julian Edelman. Brady’s offensive support is better this time around with a healthy Edelman and an improved offensive line. Brady was not sacked in 90 passing attempts in this year’s playoffs. And don’t underestimate the positive impact of rookie running back Sony Michel who has given the Patriots their most talented running back in years. Finally, I just find the playoff experience that this New England team enjoys to offer this franchise a decisive edge. This is Brady and Belichick’s ninth Super Bowl appearance in eighteen seasons. Belichick’s assistants have been with him for years as well: offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been with New England for fifteen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons there; offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia has been with them for seventeen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons; running backs coach Ivan Fears has been there for all nineteen seasons. From the two weeks of preparation and planning for the Super Bowl to the management of the game, the Patriots simply have a huge edge. While Sean McVay is the wunderkind of the league now, his reputation was saved by the bad non-call late in the game against the Saints that pushed to the background his bad decision to not go for the touchdown earlier in the 4th quarter when he elected to kick a tying field goal. Rams’ backers for this game mention things like the “value” they offer as a small underdog. I think those are sentiments that are rationalizing hype from the preseason. Let’s also remember that New England has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams opened as a 1.5-point favorite but were quickly bet down to a 1-point underdog to the Patriots. Since that time, New England has been bet up to 2.5 to 3-point favorites as of a week before the game. This line movement is consistent with how I initially handicapped this matchup. I did consider a contrarian angle regarding the Rams being pushed by the commentary that New Orleans was robbed by the referees but I quickly dismissed it. I don’t think the Rams need any more bulletin board material for them to get motivated to win a championship. Besides, the referee's storyline from last week will be old news by kick off for this game. The Patriots traveled to Arrowhead Stadium and outgained Kansas City by a decisive 524 to 290 margin. With the edges in coaching, quarterback, and playoff experience (after losing last year’s Super Bowl that I saw as basically a coin flip or two away from them winning), New England is the strong play. 25* NFL Super Bowl A-List Special with the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite.  This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I would have raced to make a call on this game earlier in the week, I might have endorsed the Patriots. With the weather projections being of an Arctic Blast that would see wind chill temperatures well below zero degrees, I needed to strongly consider that Tom Brady’s experience with below-freezing weather could be overwhelming for Patrick Mahomes and the high-precision Kansas City offense to overcome. But the 48-hour projection is for highs to be in the low-30s with game-time temperatures expected to stay in the 20s. It will be difficult for the Patriots to come close to replicate the near-perfect game they played against the Chargers last Sunday. It certainly helped that Los Angeles was traveling east for the second straight week to play in an earlier 1 PM ET kickoff with that being their third straight game on the road. The Chargers only flew in the day before — so their travel management did themselves no favors to get ready for that showdown. But now the Patriots go on the road where they have not won a playoff game since 2007. New England was a perfect 9-0 at home this season where they scored 33.8 PPG — but the Patriots were just 3-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -2.4 PPG. New England only scores 21.6 PPG while allowing their home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG The DVOA defensive ranking by the analytics folks at Football Outsiders ranks the Patriots as the second worst defensive unit on the road this season. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 opportunities to play in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Mahomes was more than capable playing in temperatures in the 20s against the Colts by completing 27 of 41 passes for 278 yards while leading the offense to 433 yards (which was above their league-leading yardage average). Kansas City is now 8-1 at home with an average winning margin of +14.8 PPG. The Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in every game this season — but it is the play of their defense that home has them so tough to beat in Arrowhead Stadium. While KC allows 34.3 PPG on the road, that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: While the Chiefs defense plays much better when playing at home when they are bolstered by the crowd noise, Kansas City’s formula for success still requires their offense to outperform what Brady can do with the Patriots’ offense. While the cold is not ideal for Mahomes, the prospect of temperatures below 10 degrees would have been a much more difficult challenge. This year’s Patriots’ team has not been nearly as good when playing away from Foxboro. 25* NFL Sunday Night Special Feature with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While an Arctic blast will not be hitting Arrowhead Stadium for this game, the temperature will still be in the 20s during this game to produce less than ideal conditions for both offenses. It is telling this is the highest over/under number for a game with the temperatures expected to be below 30 degrees since the Patriots played the Packers at Lambeau Field back on 2014 which New England lost by a 26-21 score. It would be foolish to take the Under only because that Under came through — but that comparison does underscore that the number is unseasonably high despite these weather conditions. This rematch is unlikely to approach the 83 combined points that were scored in Foxboro. The Patriots scored just under 10 points more than their season average at home in Foxboro for that game — but they see their scoring drop to just 21.6 PPG on the road. They have only scored 28 or more points once away from home this year. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road while also playing 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. New England’s lack of a vertical threat on offense after the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon will make moving the ball much more difficult this time around. They ate up a KC defense in that first meeting that allows 34.3 PPG on the road — but that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the Arrowhead home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs have also played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Kansas City has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. Don’t underestimate what Belichick will be able to do to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ defense in this rematch — and his experience coaching games in cold weather will likely make the challenge on the young quarterback even more difficult. Mahomes was tearing up the league by averaging 9.34 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first eleven weeks of the season — but defenses have caught up a bit since he has seen that number drop to 7.6 YPA in his last six starts.

FINAL TAKE: While 83 combined points were scored between these two teams in their first meeting, this rematch should seem far fewer points this time around. 25* AFC Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-3) has won three straight games with their 30-22 win over Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. New Orleans (14-3) reached the NFC Conference Championship Game with their 20-14 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Saints’ 45-35 win in New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles ran the ball 48 times for 273 yards in their win over the Cowboys which allowed them to control the Time of Possession for 36:13 minutes of that game. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Since Jared Goff suffered disappointing games against Chicago and Philadelphia, head coach Sean McVay has transitioned the offense into a run-oriented team. In their last four games, Los Angeles has run the ball in 131 of their 212 offensive plays for a 61.7% of their plays some scrimmage. It is likely that McVay will want to continue this commitment to running the football. Rushing the football also allows them to take full advantage of their offensive line that might be the best in the NFL. The late-season acquisition of running back C.J. Anderson has given them a power back that is a nice complement to Todd Gurley. Controlling the Time of Possession can help keep the New Orleans crowd out of the game while keeping Drew Brees off the field. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Los Angeles has held their eight home opponents to just 19.9 PPG along with only 338.4 total YPG. The Rams defense has been even better since the return of cornerback Aqib Talib. While LA was allowing 30.8 PPG while surrendering 272.6 passing YPG in the games they have played this season without an injured Talib on the field, those numbers improved significantly to them allowing just 17.8 PPG along with only 206.3 passing YPG with Talib healthy and supporting Marcus Peters as the second starting cornerback. Furthermore, the Rams have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. New Orleans gained 425 yards in their victory over the Eagles last week. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Saints have also evolved into a control the clock offensive team that was best embodied by an eighteen play drive in the 3rd quarter against Philadelphia that lasted over 11 minutes. New Orleans held the football for 37:15 minutes which helped them hold the Eagles to just 250 yards of offense — and only 100 yards over the final three-quarters of that game. This zeal to control Time of Possession is one of the reasons why the Saints have averaged just 19 PPG over their last eight games. Their defense should get some of the credit for the drop in the Saints’ scoring numbers as well since head coach Sean Payton does not have to game plan to reach 30 points to have a chance to win. Throw out that Week 17 game with the Panthers and the Saints have allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last eight contests while holding seven of those opponents to under 17 points. New Orleans is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by limiting opposing rushers to just 3.98 Yards-Per-Carry. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: While the first meeting between these two teams was one of the highest-scoring games of the season, this rematch profiles differently with both offensive head coaches enamored with the prospect of controlling Time of Possession by sustaining longer drives. With the number again in the high-50s, expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL LA Rams-New Orleans O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). New Orleans (14-3) reached the NFC Conference Championship Game with their 20-14 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (14-3) has won three straight games with their 30-22 win over Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. This is a rematch of the Saints’ 45-35 win in New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans showed resiliency to pull out that game last week despite falling behind 14-0 in the first-quarter. The Saints surrendered 150 yards in the opening quarter to the reigning Super Bowl Champions before clamping down to limit the Eagles offense to only 100 more yards of offense. The officials certainly did New Orleans few favors as they were pretty whistle-happy in calling holding penalties on their offensive line — yet Drew Brees and this team could not be denied winning this game on their home field. Remember, the Saints cover the point spread if they hit a late field goal attempt. They out-gained Philly by a 420 to 250 yards margin. They also took the lead and seized control of this game with an eighteen play drive in the 3rd quarter that ate over 11 minutes of time off the clock while overcame 25 yards in penalties to result in a touchdown that started on their 8-yard line. Those efforts are good signs for New Orleans today as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. And while the Saints have not covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Much has been said this week about the “struggling” Saints offense that has scored only 19 PPG over their last six games. Some caveats should be offered when presenting that statistic — most notably, that the offense was missing their top offensive lineman in Terron Armstead to close out the the regular season before getting him back on the field last week. Furthermore, we can throw out the meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina while remembering two of those games were on the road against two good defenses with Carolina and Dallas. New Orleans did put up 31 points at home in an important win over the Steelers during this final stretch that never seems to get mentioned. The Saints score 32.6 PPG at home this season — and the 420 yards they generated last week were higher than their 402.9 YPG season average in the Superdome. Brees completes 75.9% of his passes in the dome while averaging 9.31 Yards-Per-Attempt with an incredible 23 touchdown passes to just 2 interceptions. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense should get some of the credit for the drop in the Saints’ scoring numbers, as well, since head coach Sean Payton does not have to game plan to reach 30 points to have a chance to win. Throw out that Week 17 game with the Panthers and the Saints have allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last eight contests while holding seven of those opponents to under 17 points. Los Angeles has won and covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three in a row. That victory over the Cowboys was against a team that finished just 3-6 on the road while averaging only 17.9 PPG in those contests. The Rams have morphed into a rushing team to close out the season — they have rushed for at least 155 yards in three straight games. But while LA has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight contests. Of course, one of the reasons why head coach Sean McVay has decided to run the ball more is to hide quarterback Jared Goff who was exposed in a two-game stretch against the Bears and Eagles. Goff struggles against teams with good pass rushes — he ranks 28th in the league in Passer Rating when facing pressure and gets off the McVay script. The Saints' defense rank 5th in the NFL when playing at home in both sacks and QB Pressures. Goff has thrown for more than 220 yards only once in his last six games. Goff clearly misses wide receiver Cooper Cupp who was his security blanket. In his six career starts without Cupp, Goff sees his passing YPG drop by 22.6 yards while his Yards-Per-Attempt drops a whopping 1.3 YPA. Goff also is a much better passer at home where he averages 8.8 YPA with a 22:3 TD-to-interception ratio — but those numbers plummet to just 7.56 YPA with a middling 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio when he is playing on the road. Those are ominous numbers for this young quarterback now playing in one of the loudest football stadiums in the NFL. Goff may be required to win this game with his arm considering this Saints’ defense is outstanding against the run. New Orleans is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by limiting opposing rushers to just 3.98 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an expected higher-scoring game with the Total set in the high-50s — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And while LA has revenge on their minds from the first meeting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when attempting to avenge a same-season upset loss as a road favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are very reliable in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is their fourth straight game at home as well so they hold a big situational edge which afforded them the opportunity to coast out the close of the regular season. New Orleans will miss defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week — but he was often double-team which put the onus on his teammates to make plays. With their playoff experience and the better quarterback, look for the Saints to seize this moment and play their best game since peaking with that 48-7 win over the Eagles in mid-November. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score.

REASONS TO TAKE NEW ORLEANS MINUS THE POINTS: If I am going to play-against a team with a chip on their shoulder looking to avenge a 41-point same-season loss — with the point spread value that often creates in the betting market — I am going to very comfortable with that decision. I am. We can’t be zombies in these situations — especially because appealing betting situations often run into conflict other reliable betting situations pointing to the other side. Playoff teams looking to avenge a loss of at least 30 points in the regular season have lost nine of those fourteen showdowns. I never researched the against-the-spread numbers on those — but seeing five outright wins is certainly not an argument against the Eagles. Frankly, I just assumed the worst about how these avenging dogs generally do in these playoff situations. But that the personality of this Philly team goes the other way as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. I also am not going to haphazardly bet against any team that has pulled off four straight upset victories in the playoffs while winning five of their last six games outright when getting the points. I was on the wrong side of too many of those playoff upset victories. But each new situation is unique — and I hate the circumstances this Eagles team faces entering this game. This is Philly’s third straight game on the road — and it is their fifth game in their last six contests away from home. And let’s remember that despite all the Foles magic, this is a team that needed a missed game-ending field goal to escape Chicago with that win. They were out-gained by the Bears by 56 net yards after gaining just 300 yards in that game. Philly is going to struggle to run the football this afternoon as they have averaged just 3.23 Yards-Per-Carry since Foles took over at quarterback. They now face a stout Saints’ run defense that is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG and third best in the league using the advanced metrics by Football Outsiders. New Orleans allows opposing rushers to average just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. Making the Eagles one-dimensional was one of the keys to their blowout victory in November. Furthermore, the Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these remains NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards. And don’t underestimate the problem playing on the faster field turf in the Superdome presents to this Philly team as it will exacerbate the speed issues they have with their backup in their secondary. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on field turf. Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers that should be ignored when handicapping this game. The New Orleans starters have essentially has had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when they are playing at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of the last 31 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Saints defense has also been underappreciated down the stretch of the season. Take out the meaningless Carolina game in Week 17 and New Orleans has held their last seven opponents to just 14.6 PPG while ranking 5th in the NFL with 49 sacks and 101 quarterback hits over that span. This team under Payton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of January.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles were my Best Bet to win the Super Bowl back in August — so I really appreciate what Doug Pederson has done with this franchise. Too many injuries, too many road games, too many hurdles to overcome — and now they run into a rested, tanned and ready Saints bulldozer of a team at home. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers. The New Orleans starters have essentially had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs — and this is a team that has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when coming off a bye week. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has played 21 of their 30 games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 straight playoff games at home Over the Total. They face a Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these three players remain NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees again. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. I do expect the Nick Foles-led offense to keep pace with the Saints scoring as the New Orleans defense gives up 25.6 PPG along with 373.4 total YPG when playing at home. Besides the calming presence Foles apparently provides his teammates in the huddle, a big strength he provides to head coach Doug Pederson and this Eagles offense is his quick decision-making and release. In this last four-game stretch, Foles is averaging just 2.2 seconds per pass attempt which is the fastest rate in all the NFL during that span. This skill is liberating the Philly offensive coaching brethren to get creative with their play-calling. The Eagles’ offensive line has responded as well — Foles is seeing a clean pocket in 70.4% of his passing plays over their last four games in a metric that is even more impressive considering that they played the ferocious Bears’ defense and three other defenses that rank in the Top 15 in sacks. Philadelphia has played 22 of their last 30 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes them playing five of their last seven home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road and four of their last five games Over the Total when playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t think the Saints get to 48 points again today — but they should approach their 34.1 PPG scoring average when playing at home. The Philly offense will be much better in this rematch — and I see them scoring in the 25.6 PPG range that the Saints are giving up at home. If both those projections are accurate, we get our Over with room to spare. 10* NFL Philadelphia-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the New England Patriots (306). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (13-4) has won six of their last seven games with their 23-17 upset win at Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog. New England (11-5) has won two straight games to close out the regular season with their 38-3 win over the New York Jets as a 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Los Angeles’ decision to deploy seven defensive backs maximized their speed on the field — and it stymied the Baltimore innovative rushing attack behind rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Look for similar six and seven defensive back schemes against the Patriots this week. Tom Brady’s physical skills have (finally!) begun to decline — and they lack a dynamic deep threat with the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Patriots’ tight end Rob Gronkowski has also seen a significant decline in his skills. The Chargers can sub defensive backs for linebackers and let Brady dink-and-dunk them to death — which means long scoring drives and a running clock helping our Under. The Los Angeles defense ranks 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.6 PPG while also ranking 9th in the league by giving up just 333.7 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are giving up only 16.0 PPG along with just 320.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. The Patriots generated 375 yards of offense in their last game against the Jets — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Patriots have allowed only 32 combined points over their last three games with none of those three teams scoring more than 17 points. The New England defense is very stingy at home as they hold their guests to just 16.6 PPG along with a mere 319.5 total YPG — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total at home. Bill Belichick has done a great job of containing Rivers as well. In his last four starts against the Patriots, Rivers has led his team to only 17.0 PPG. And to compound matters, even more, he is facing a New England defense that leads the NFL by playing man-to-man in 57% of their defensive snaps. All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore may be enjoying his best season — he has allowed the second fewest yards after catch this year. He will make things very difficult for wide receiver Keenan Allen. And Rivers averages 7.99 Yards-Per-Attempt against man-to-man coverage this season as compared to his 9.55 YPP mark against zone defenses. Rivers has seen his production decline as of late — he only has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Over that span, the Chargers are scoring just 18.7 PPG over these last three games while average just 239.0 total YPG. Rivers has averaged just 153.7 passing YPG in those last three games with a Passer Rating of only 55.2. In this team’s first fourteen games, they averaged 28.2 PPG along with 392.0 total YPG with Rivers averaging 270.1 passing YPG and posting a 112.4 Passer Rating.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters Under the Total. Playing in cold weather in the 20s, expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NFL LA Chargers-New England CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the New England Patriots (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). THE SITUATION: New England (11-5) has won two straight games to close out the regular season with their 38-3 win over the New York Jets as a 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Los Angeles (13-4) has won six of their last seven games with their 23-17 upset win at Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: I like this Chargers team behind Philip Rivers — they have made us a lot of money this season. However, this is just too challenging of circumstances. It is just brutal to ask this west coast team to travel east for the second straight week to play in an early 1 PM ET contest. Los Angeles will have traveled over 10,000 miles over their three-game road trip since Week 17 of the regular season — now they have to play in cold weather with temperatures projected to be in the 20s. It is so hard for the best of teams to play close to their maximum ability with these sets of obstacles. As it is, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game on the road — and they have failed to cover there point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. And while the Chargers defense held the Ravens to just 229 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in each of their last two games. Rivers has seen his production decline as of late — he only has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Over that span, the Chargers are scoring just 18.7 PPG over these last three games while average just 239.0 total YPG. Rivers has averaged just 153.7 passing YPG in those last three games with a Passer Rating of only 55.2. In this team’s first fourteen games, they averaged 28.2 PPG along with 392.0 total YPG with Rivers averaging 270.1 passing YPG and posting a 112.4 Passer Rating. Maybe Rivers is fatiguing? These are simply far from ideal conditions for a veteran quarterback who has a career 1-8 mark against the Patriots. In his last four starts against a Bill Belichick defense, Rivers has led his team to only 17.0 PPG. And to compound matters even more, he is facing a New England defense that leads the NFL by playing man-to-man in 57% of their defensive snaps. All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore may be enjoying his best season — he has allowed the second fewest yards after catch this year. He will make things very difficult for wide receiver Keenan Allen. And Rivers averages 7.99 Yards-Per-Attempt against man-to-man coverage this season as compared to his 9.55 YPP mark against zone defenses. New England has allowed only 32 combined points over their last three games. This Patriots team is very tough to beat when the defense is playing well. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight contests. The New England defense is very stingy at home as they hold their guests to just 16.6 PPG along with a mere 319.5 total YPG. While we are witnesses the inevitable deterioration of Tom Brady’s skills — this remains a Patriots team was unbeaten at home this year with a +16.3 net point differential in those games. But the Patriots offense still cranks it up when playing in Foxboro as they average 32.9 PPG along with 430.6 total YPG. New England is 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when favored by no more than 7 points. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Playing the physical Ravens team on both sides of the ball in two of their last three games may be yet another under- appreciated concern for this Chargers team. They now face the gauntlet of this New England team that has won eleven of their last twelve home playoff games in the AFC Divisional playoffs. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (304) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (303). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-3) takes the field again after their 48-32 victory over San Francisco two weeks ago to close out their regular season. Dallas (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last Saturday with their 24-22 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles rebounded from a late-season swoon by winning their last two games of the season. Their 16-point win over the 49ers was preceded by a decisive 31-9 victory at Arizona. Those wins are a good sign for the Rams now as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at last four touchdowns in their last game against an NFC West rival. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning their last two games over divisional rivals. And while the Rams have raced out to 12 and 21 point halftime leads in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after holding double-digit leads in two straight games. Quarterback Jared Goff was exposed in losses at Chicago and home to Philadelphia down the stretch of the season. While I considered Goff a bit overrated in relation to the peak of Rams/Sean McVay worship earlier this season, there has been an overreaction to Goff’s struggles against two good defenses with that Bears game being in a very chilly environment. McVay made some adjustments to help Goff play better over his final two games where he completed 68% of his passes with an 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt average while tossing 5 touchdown passes with no interceptions and just one sack. Goff has been a much better quarterback this season when playing at home where he enjoys an incredible 22-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 9.03 Yards-Per-Attempt — as compared to his 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a 7.56 YPA mark. He is supported by what might be the best offensive line in football along with a rested Todd Gurley who torched this Dallas defense last year for 215 yards. The Rams are very tough when playing at home where they are 7-1 with an average winning margin of +9.0 PPG due to their explosive offense that scores 37.1 PPG while averaging 452.3 total YPG. Admittedly, the Cowboys will have plenty of fan support in this game — the crowd advantage will be minimal at best for the Rams. But many observers fail to appreciate that one of the main sources of advantage that home teams seize when they play at home comes from familiarity and routine. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. They enter this game having won eight of their last nine games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight of their last ten contests. The Cowboys ended the regular season with a 36-35 win in New York against the Giants in their most recent game away from home. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning their last two contests by no more than 6 points in both games. The Cowboys have struggled on the road where they are just 3-5 this season with an average losing margin of -4.6 PPG. Dallas only scores 17.4 PPG when playing on the road while averaging just 324.2 total YPG. Wide receiver Amari Cooper averaged just 4.5 receptions per game since joining the Cowboys when playing on the road for just a 43.5 receiving YPG while failing to score a touchdown. Those numbers are in stark contrast to the 7.0 receptions per game he averaged at home in Dallas with a 109.5 receiving YPG mark while averaging a touchdown per game. The Cowboys defense also allows 367.6 YPG when playing away from home which is almost 40 YPG higher than their season average. The Dallas pass defense has declined down the stretch of the season after peaking in that big Thursday night win when they hosted New Orleans. Since that victory in Week 13, the Cowboys have allowed opposing passers to complete 65.1% of their passes while averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. These opposing QBs have thrown 7 touchdown passes with just one interception while the Dallas defense has registered only seven sacks in those last five games. The Cowboys rush defense has also struggled as of late when playing on the road. In their last four road games, Dallas has allowed 105.5 rushing YPG along with a 5.02 Yards-Per-Carry average against the middling rushing attacks of Atlanta, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Indianapolis. Dallas has allowed their last three opponents to score 25.7 PPG along with 374.3 total YPG which is more than 5 PPG and 40 YPG more than their season averages. Those are not encouraging trends for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has been a much better team at home this year than they have been on the road. After their win over the Seahawks last week, the pressure is off this franchise. While some would say that they are playing with the proverbial house money, I suspect this lack of urgency will result in a loss of edge when facing this Rams’ team that absolutely must win this game after being upset at home to the Falcons in their lone playoff game last year. 10* NFL Dallas-LA Rams Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (304) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last Saturday with their 24-22 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (13-3) takes the field again after their 48-32 victory over San Francisco two weeks ago to close out their regular season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Los Angeles should the pace-setters when it comes to scoring in this game as they average a robust 37.1 PPG along with 453.2 total YPG when playing at home. The Rams have played 4 straight home games Over the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 29 of their last 44 home games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 7 point range. But defense has been a concern for this team who allows 28.1 PPG on their home field along with 378.7 total YPG. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball against the Rams’ defense that ranks just 23rd in the NFL by allowing 122.2 rushing YPG. LA allows opposing rushers to average 4.88 Yards-Per-Carry — so Ezekiel Elliott has a good opportunity to have his running the football. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas enters this game having won eight of their last nine games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Cowboys have also played 5 of the last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Dallas generated 380 yards of offense last week in their victory over the Seahawks — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Over their last three contests, this Cowboys offense that was jumpstarted with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper has averaged 29.0 PPG. But their vaunted defense has surrendered 25.7 PPG along with 374.3 total YPG over those last three games as well. The Dallas pass defense has declined down the stretch of the season after peaking in that big Thursday night win when they hosted New Orleans. Since that victory in Week 13, the Cowboys have allowed opposing passers to complete 65.1% of their passes while averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. These opposing QBs have thrown 7 touchdown passes with just one interception while the Dallas defense has registered only seven sacks in those last five games. The Cowboys rush defense has also struggled as of late when playing on the road. In their last four road games, Dallas has allowed 105.5 rushing YPG along with a 5.02 Yards-Per-Carry average against the middling rushing attacks of Atlanta, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Indianapolis. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: This should be a competitive game — so look for Dallas to keep up with the Rams’ offense that should be rested and ready for this showdown. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) closed out their regular season with a 35-3 victory over Oakland back on December 30th as 14.5-point favorites. Indianapolis (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs with their 21-7 upset win at Houston last Saturday as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Colts have won two crucial de-facto playoff games in a row with their triumph in Houston last week preceded by their victory at Tennessee for Sunday Night Football two weeks ago that was necessary for them to clinch the sixth and final AFC playoff spot. It is very hard to continue to be road warriors like this in single-elimination football games — a bad break or two can offer the home team insurmountable momentum. Indianapolis looks due for a letdown after covering the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after they covered the point spread in at least three of their last four games. And while the Colts rushed out to a 21-0 halftime lead last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying at least a two-touchdown lead in the first-half of their last game. Andrew Luck led the offense 422 yards in that win but Indy has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after they gained at least 400 yards in their last game. Remember that the Colts offense stalled in the second-half as they did not score a single point. Indianapolis has benefited from the second easiest regular season record according to some of the analytical breakdowns with some of the metrics grading out the opposing quarterbacks they encountered as the easiest cast of characters as any team faced this season. The best statistical offense they faced was against the Patriots — and Tom Brady lit up the Colts defense for 38 points. These are all ominous circumstances for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chiefs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while KC has only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five contests. Patrick Mahomes may be set up to enjoy a fantastic game against this Colts team that leads the NFL in playing Cover-2 or Cover-3 zone defenses. These schemes that dedicate two or three defensive backs in zone coverage leaves the middle of the field in intermediate areas wide open. Andy Reid’s schemes rip these defenses apart with Mahomes quickly mastering these skills. Mahomes has averaged an 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt this season — and that number rises to a 9.2 YPA mark when he is facing Cover-2 or Cover-3 schemes this year. Furthermore, in their five games against teams that rank in top-eight in the frequency of deploying zone schemes, Mahomes has completed 64.5% of the 167 passes he has attempted while generating 14 touchdown passes to zero interceptions. Reid’s effectiveness in coaching with the benefit of the bye week is legendary — his teams have won twenty-one of their twenty-five games when playing with this advantage. Reid has also overseen four victories in five playoff games with the benefit of a second week of prep.

FINAL TAKE: Lastly, it is going to be cold in Kansas City for this game with temperatures topping in the mid-30s with a 90% chance of precipitation (as of this writing) with a good possibility of snow. Those are not ideal conditions for a dome team, to say the least. The Chiefs should win and cover the spread. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs with their 21-7 upset win at Houston last Saturday as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City (12-4) closed out their regular season with a 35-3 victory over Oakland back on December 30th as 14.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: My first point is my last argument — as of this writing, there is a 90% of precipitation with the high in Kansas City being the mid-30s. If there is snow, that very much helps our Under play with the number currently set in the high-50s. I recommend getting down on this play ASAP — because if flurries appear, this number will go down. That said, even if there is no snow during this game, the Under is a strong play (and it is a strong play with a lower number if it does, in fact, snow). Cold weather does not help passing games with quarterbacks and receivers playing with cold hands and less than ideal conditions — remember the Rams playing in chilly Chicago for Sunday Night Football last month. Patrick Mahomes had three of his five games where he failed to generate at least 300 passing yards in the cooler December weather. The Chiefs’ offensive numbers dipped a bit over their last three games as they scored 31.3 PPG while averaging 374.0 total YPG which was 4.0 PPG and over 50 YGP below their season averages. Mahomes may also have some jitters and rust with the extra week off before making his playoff debut — and it does not take many failed drives to make the Over with this high Total unlikely. The Kansas City defense is not great — but they were significantly better at home where they held their opponents to just 18.0 PPG/354.7 YPG as compared to the 34.3 PPG/456.3 YPG they surrendered when playing on the road. The tendency for games played at Arrowhead Stadium trend strongly to the Under as those tickets are 49-22-1 in the last 72 games played there. The Under is also 16-7-1 in KC’s last 24 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total in the playoffs. Indianapolis has played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. The Colts generated 422 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been great all season — but he has thrived at home where he is completing 70.7% of his passes with that number dropping to a 64.2% mark when playing on the road. Wide receiver certainly sees his production decline when playing outside where he averages 24.8 receiving YPG — and he is slowed with an ankle injury still. Indianapolis has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing a winning record at home. The Colts formula for success will likely be to run the football to burn clock and keep Mahomes off the field — especially when playing in a hostile environment. They score only 23.9 PPG when playing away from home. Indy holds their home hosts to scoring just 20.9 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 17.0 PPG along with 324.0 total YPG. Indianapolis should be able to slow down Kansas City offensive juggernaut living life now without running back Kareem Hunt as they are 8th in the NFL by allowing 101.8 rushing YPG — and they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry.

FINAL TAKE: Defenses have caught up a bit with the explosive Chiefs offense — but the Total remains historically high for this divisional round playoff game. Indy wants a shorter game to put Luck in a position to outduel Mahomes — and that is a formula for the Under. And if there is snow, both of these offenses might slow significantly down. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Back in August, my Best Bet to win the National Championship was on Clemson because I preferred the value in their future odds in the 4:1 to 5:1 range as more appetizing than Alabama’s odds in the 2:1 to 3:1 range. With this final pairing set, I have observed some pundits claim that there is little value in Clemson getting +4.5 to +6 or so points. Say what? The Tigers lost the first playoff meeting between these two teams in 2016 by a 45-40 score before upsetting the Tide by a 35-31 score in the second meeting the next year. Nick Saban then had a month to prepare for last year's third showdown which Bama won by a 24-6 score — and that game exposed the limitations of Clemson QB Kelly Bryant. It is with this fourth chapter in mind that Dabo Swinney made the difficult decision to bench an effective Bryant this season for freshman Trevor Lawrence. In hindsight, that move looks brilliant as it jumpstarted the Tigers offense who they closed the season ranked 4th in the nation by scoring 44.3 PPG while ranking above Bama at 3rd in the FBS by averaging 530.4 total YPG. Lawrence looked great in decimating a good Notre Dame defense by completing 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards while tossing three touchdown passes. He now faces a vulnerable Crimson Tide secondary that has surrendered 308 and 301 passing yards to Oklahoma and Georgia in their last two games. The Alabama defensive backfield was an initial concern for me this season considering that they replaced their top four starters along with their top six on the depth chart. It is more difficult to repeat as champions since it is challenging to muster the same level of energy and urgency as that which drove the team in their first triumph over the proverbial mountain. And I see red flags when defending champions start losing focus by getting chippy with trash talk and cheap shots — and that is exactly what happened to Alabama when they blew their point spread cover against the Sooners. Rather than tactics of intimidation, I fount it indicated a lack of confidence — or, perhaps it displayed chemistry issues for a group with national championship or bust expectations that has played all season with a divided locker room over their two quarterbacks? Something seems off — and now they will face a program that has reached their level over the last four seasons. That is not a good sign for the Crimson Tide who have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by less than 7 points. Clemson has notched 54 victories over the last four seasons while perhaps being more talented than the team that won the 2016 National Championship. Even without Dexter Lawrence with his PED suspension, this could be their best defense under star defensive coordinator Brent Venables. This group ranks above Bama in all major defensive categories for what that is worth. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 bowl games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games as the underdog while winning six of those games straight-up.

FINAL TAKE: I lean to Clemson to win this game outright given the lingering chemistry/cohesion issues with Alabama that reared its ugly head in the Semifinals along with the motivational edge this team has in revenge against a reigning champion that might be just a little less hungry this time around. But please take as many points as you can for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB National Championship A-List Special with Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams have top-five scoring offenses and defenses — but I think both teams’ offenses seem a little of their defense and the urgency of this contest should eventually push the scoring Over the Total. Alabama is second in the nation by scoring 47.7 PPG while ranking fourth in the FBS by averaging 527.6 total YPG. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa competed 24 of 27 passes against the Sooners defense last week for 318 yards with four touchdown passes to lead the Crimson Tide to victory. The Over is 19-9-1 in Alabama’s last 29 games after they pass for at least 280 yards in their last game. This dynamic passing attack is a new wrinkle for a Nick Saban Crimson Tide team as they rank 6th in the nation by averaging 325.6 passing YPG. While Bama has sported elite wide receivers who have found great success in the NFL, Saban may have recruited his most diverse set of receiver targets for this season’s offense. They should exploit a vulnerable Clemson secondary that was torched for 430 passing yards by Texas A&M and 510 passing yards by South Carolina. Alabama has played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field when favored — and they have played eleven of their last sixteen bowl games Over the Total including six of their last seven major bowl games played in January. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Furthermore, Alabama has played 7 straight games Over the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 points range. But the Crimson Tide displayed some weaknesses in their defense again Oklahoma by allowing 471 yards of offense. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bama secondary was a question mark for this team entering the season with them losing their top six defensive backs from last year’s depth chart. Alabama allowed the Sooners to pass for 308 yards after Georgia passed for 301 yards in their last two games. Dabo Swinney made the move at quarterback early in the season to prepare freshman Trevor Lawrence for this potential rematch because of his strong arm. The 6’5 gunslinger completed 27 of 39 passes against the Fighting Irish for 327 yards with three touchdowns. He leads an offense that has averaged 567.0 total YPG over their last three games. Overall, Clemson ranks 4th in the nation by averaging 44.3 PPG while generating 530.4 total YPG which ranks 3rd in the FBS. The Tigers have only allowed 13 combined points over their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in two straight games. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 5 games played in the month of January, the Tigers have played 4 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is the fourth straight season that these two teams have met in the College Football Playoffs. Alabama won the first game by a 45-40 score before Clemson won the rematch in January 2017 in a 35-31 contest. The Tide won in last year’s Semifinals in a defensive contest with Clemson using Kelly Bryant at quarterback in a 24-6 result. Expect the fourth chapter of this series to resemble the first two in it being a high-scoring shootout. 25* College Football Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (108) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (107). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-4) has won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 24-10 upset at Minnesota last week as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 24-0 win at Washington as a 6-point favorite last week to sneak into the playoffs with that Vikings loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while the Bears held the Vikings to just 164 yards of offense last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Chicago defense is outstanding — they are holding their opponents to less than 1.5 points-per-drive while forcing a turnover in almost 20% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank first in the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the NFL by giving up just 299.7 total YPG. Furthermore, over their last three games, the Bears are allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 255.3 total YPG. Chicago has been very tough to beat at home where they are 7-1 with an average winning margin of +10.6 PPG. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky plays his best at home where he leads an offense that scores 28.1 PPG along with averaging 366.9 total YPG. The Bears are a decisive 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home — and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point spread. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia took care of business against a Washington team ravaged with injuries — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a win by at least three touchdowns. The Eagles held the Skins to just 21 rushing yards along with only 68 passing yards in their win — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 30 rushing yards in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. While it may be tempting to think this team is set up to make another improbable playoff run with Nick Foles again under center, keep in mind that the deeper metrics for this team indicate this is a completely average football team which is a stark contrast from what those numbers were indicating at this time last season. Injuries have hit this team very hard particularly in their secondary with Rodney McLeod, Ronald Darby, and Jalen Mills out the season and now cornerback Sidney Jones out for this game with a hamstring injury. On offense, their rushing attack misses Jay Ajayi from last year while the offensive line has not been as dominant as last year’s group. The Eagles’ offense tends to stall if they cannot establish a credible rushing attack — and they are now facing the NFL stingiest run defense in the league as the Bears allow only 80.0 rushing YPG. Philadelphia has only scored more than 24 points twice in their eight road games this season — and they have yet to play a defense as stout as this Chicago unit. The Bears have the personnel to not have to blitz Foles. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP has struggled when facing zone defenses against which he averages just 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt with zero touchdown passes with three interceptions and five sacks — as compared to his 10.6 YPA mark against man-to-man defense with 5 five touchdown passes, zero interceptions and just one sack. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia’s run as reigning Super Bowl champions likely ends tonight. They have a -6 net turnover margin for the season which is an ominous number when facing this Bears team that enjoys a +12 net turnover margin. Expect Chicago to eventually pull away for an easy win. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (108) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-4) has won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 24-10 upset at Minnesota last week as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 24-0 win at Washington as a 6-point favorite last week to sneak into the playoffs with that Vikings loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset win as an underdog. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they held the Vikings to just 63 rushing yards last week, Chicago has then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, while the Bears have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of the last five games. This Chicago defense is outstanding — they are holding their opponents to less than 1.5 points-per-drive while forcing a turnover in almost 20% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank first in the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the NFL by giving up just 299.7 total YPG. Furthermore, over their last three games, the Bears are allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 255.3 total YPG. Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 4 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bears have played all 4 games Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Eagles outrushed the Skins by 108 net yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 100 yards in their last game. But this Eagles’ offense tends to stall if they cannot establish a credible rushing attack — and they are now facing the NFL stingiest run defense in the league as the Bears allow only 80.0 rushing YPG. Philadelphia has only scored more than 24 points twice in their eight road games this season — and they have yet to play a defense as stout as this Chicago unit. The Bears have the personnel to not have to blitz Nick Foles and drop back linebackers into pass coverage. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP has struggled when facing zone defenses against which he averages just 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt with zero touchdown passes with three interceptions and five sacks — as compared to his 10.6 YPA mark against man-to-man defense with 5 five touchdown passes, zero interceptions and just one sack. Foles too often becomes a dink-and-dunker as he is last in the NFL by averaging a mere 6.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Lastly, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Eagles’ last 8 games in the month of January.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will have trouble scoring against this stout Bears’ defense. But the Bears are likely to struggle to move the ball as well with Mitchell Trubisky playing in his first playoff game. The weather looks to be in the low-40s with it pretty windy at 15 Miles-Per-Hour which might impact his deeper passes down the field. Chicago also has a host of injuries at wide receiver — and while Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel are all listed as probable, their effectiveness for today’s game remains in doubt. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Chicago NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (105) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (106). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-4) has won five of their last six games with their 23-9 win at Denver as a 7-point favorite last week. Baltimore (10-6) has won three games in a row with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. This is a rematch of the Ravens’ 22-10 upset victory in Los Angeles back on December 22nd as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 49 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Head coach Anthony Lynn should have this team ready to play in this revenge spot from two weeks ago as the Chargers have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. Los Angeles stays on the road for the third time in four weeks — but this team under veteran quarterback Philip Rivers are the epitome of road warriors. The Chargers are 8-1 this season with an average winning margin of +7.1 PPG due to a defense that limits their home hosts to just 19.8 PPG. Los Angeles is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road — and this includes them covering the point spread in seven of their last eight games away from home. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. The Chargers have a huge benefit in facing the new run-dominant Ravens offense two weeks ago. It is a challenge to prepare for this Baltimore offense since practice squads do not have players that can adequately replicate rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson’s skill set. In this quick turnaround rematch, look for the Chargers’ defense to stay committed to assignment football which is the most effective way to slow down these wishbone style rushing attacks. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles also has their defensive backs employ inside presses along while running some corner or safety blitzes to put the pressure on Jackson. The rookie has completed only 17 of 34 passes when facing a blitz this season while getting sacked 5 times. The Chargers should force Jackson to beat him with his arm — and he was not adept in his college career in accurately delivering fade route passes that he should be forced into making this afternoon. 115 of Jackson’s 185 pass attempts this season (68%) have been no longer than 10 passing yards — so daring him to execute medium and longer passes should be the order of the day. Baltimore allowed only a touchdown to the Browns in the first-half last week after holding the Chargers scoreless in the first-half in the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first-half in two straight games. And while the Ravens have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Despite the winning streak this team has enjoyed behind Jackson, they have averaged just 22.7 PPG over their last three games. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, this playoff game comes down to a rookie quarterback who is untested in winning games with his arm versus a likely first-ballot Hall of Famer. It is telling that the Ravens have not won a game this season if they trailed in it after the end of the third quarter. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers pull the upset but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL LA Chargers-Baltimore CBS-TV Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (105) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-4) has won five of their last six games with their 23-9 win at Denver as a 7-point favorite last week. Baltimore (10-6) has won three games in a row with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. This is a rematch of the Ravens’ 22-10 upset victory in Los Angeles back on December 22nd as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have seen the Under go a decisive 35-15-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Under is also 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Los Angeles defense is one of the best in the league by allowing just 20.1 PPG which is 8th in the NFL — and that number drops to 19.8 PPG when playing on the road. The Chargers have a huge benefit in facing the new run-dominant Ravens offense two weeks ago. It is a challenge to prepare for this Baltimore offense since practice squads do not have players that can adequately replicate rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson’s skill set. In this quick turnaround rematch, look for the Chargers’ defense to stay committed to assignment football which is the most effective way to slow down these wishbone style rushing attacks. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles also has their defensive backs employ inside presses along while running some corner or safety blitzes to put the pressure on Jackson. The rookie has completed only 17 of 34 passes when facing a blitz this season while getting sacked 5 times. The Chargers should force Jackson to beat him with his arm — and he was not adept in his college career in accurately delivering fade route passes that he should be forced into making this afternoon. 115 of Jackson’s 185 pass attempts this season (68%) have been no longer than 10 passing yards — so daring him to execute medium and longer passes should be the order of the day. However, a problem for the Chargers has been that their offense has been sputtering as of late after suffering their worst points and yardage games for the season in each of the last two seasons. 7 of their points last week against the Broncos were from an 18-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown — and their only touchdown the previous week against the Ravens was from a short drive after recovering a fumble at the 17-yard line. Quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown for less than 220 yards in three of his last four starts while tossing six interceptions over his last three games. To compound matters, Los Angeles will be traveling east to play this 1 PM ET game with their body clocks thinking it is 10 AM (with me). The Chargers have played two straight games Under the Total — and they have then played 7 straight road games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. And while LA has only allowed two field goals in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. And while the Broncos gained 370 yards against them last week, the Chargers have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Baltimore gave up an uncharacteristic 426 yards last week to the Browns — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Cleveland only had 56 offensive plays in that game which was 10.6 snaps below their season average. One of the benefits of the Ravens’ commitment to running the football is burning time off the clock. Baltimore has averaged 45.1 rushes per game in the seven games that Jackson has started — and this has correlated to opposing offenses averaging 10.9 fewer offensive plays during that span. The Ravens have the best statistical defense in the NFL by allowing 292.0 total YPG and they rank second in the league by giving up only 17.9 PPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has allowed just 15.3 PPG along with only 288.3 total YPG. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total when playing at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in the month of January.

FINAL TAKE: This game features two good defenses that just faced the respective offenses two weeks ago. Combine that dynamic with a Chargers team that likes to control Time of Possession facing a Baltimore team obsessed with controlling the clock — and the result is a great formula for the Under. 25* AFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-6) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 36-35 upset win in New York against the Giants as a 7.5-point underdog. Seattle (10-6) has also won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-24 win over Arizona as a 14-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Dallas closed out their season with a win over a divisional rival despite resting much of their players — that is why they closed that game as an underdog getting around a touchdown. The Cowboys are such a fragile team — they feel great about winning that meaningless way given the way they celebrated afterward — and they should feed off that momentum for this contest. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset victory — and they have also covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory over an NFC East rival. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Dallas will benefit from having a fresh Ezekiel Elliott in this game. This team is also getting as healthy again on their offensive line with Tyron Smith, Connor Williams and Zack Martin all upgraded to probable for this game. The Cowboys should be able to find success running the football against this Seahawks defense that has allowed opposing rushers to average 5.13 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Nine. Dallas gets to host this game where they score 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. Of course, the Cowboys season numbers on offense are skewed down because their acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper transformed their offense by offering QB Dak Prescott a legitimate number one wide receiver target — and the mere threat of Cooper down the field opens the running game up for Elliott. In their three-game home stand from Thanksgiving until the second Sunday in December against Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, Dallas averaged 429.3 YPG which demonstrates the positive impact Cooper had on their offense. Dallas is a near perfect 7-1 at home with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG where they are scoring 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has been very stingy at home as well as they hold their opponents to just 18.5 PPG along with limiting them to only 290.9 total YPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC foes. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home — and they may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning four of their last five games. Their narrow win over the Cardinals followed up that 38-31 win at home over Kansas City — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after winning their last two games at home by 7 points or less. Seattle has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys used to have middling results when playing at home in AT&T Stadium but Jerry’s World has finally given this team a significant home-field advantage behind an exuberant crowd that helps their role players play better. Dallas is a much-improved team with Cooper in the mix than they were when these two teams first played in late September. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a great job with the Seahawks this season — but look for them to fall short on the road against a Dallas team that is very tough at home these days. 10* NFL Seattle-Dallas Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-6) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 27-24 win over Arizona as a 14-point favorite last week. Dallas (10-6) has also won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 36-35 victory in New York against the Giants as a 7.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Seahawks 24-13 win at home in Seattle as a 2-point favorite back on September 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has become a power running team that has averaged at least 28 rushing attempts per game since Week Two. But this team’s ability to burn time off the clock does not necessarily translate into a bunch of Unders. The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against NFC rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. This running of the football sets up their play-action passing which they deploy in 32% of their pass attempts which is the second most in the NFL — and they are sixth in the league by averaging 8.8 Yards-Per-Play from play-action. The Cowboys are vulnerable against play-action passing — they have only seen in it 21% of their opponent’s pass attempts but they are in the bottom half of the league by allowing 7.9 YPP against play-action. Play-action also sets up QB Russell Wilson to throw the deep ball — and he ranks second in the NFL by averaging 15.6 YPP when throwing at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage. The Seattle play-action game is so dangerous because opposing defenses have to commit to slow down their rushing attack that leads the NFL by averaging 160.0 rushing YPG. The Seahawks trio of running backs of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashard Penny combine to average 4.6 YPC. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed 26.0 PPG along with 398.0 total YPG over their last three games. Seattle has averaged 29.3 PPG along with 380.0 total YPG over their last three contests. They go on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in the playoffs. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Cowboys will have a rested Ezekiel Elliott who got last week off to mend and rest for this game. They managed just 51 rushing yards last week — but they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Dallas is getting as healthy again on their offensive line with Tyron Smith, Connor Williams and Zack Martin all upgraded to probable for this game. The Cowboys should be able to find success running the football against this Seahawks defense that has allowed opposing rushers to average 5.13 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Nine. Dallas gets to host this game where they score 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. Of course, the Cowboys season numbers on offense are skewed down because their acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper transformed their offense by offering QB Dak Prescott a legitimate number one wide receiver target — and the mere threat of Cooper down the field opens the running game up for Elliott. In their three-game homestand from Thanksgiving until the second Sunday in December against Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, Dallas averaged 429.3 YPG which demonstrates the positive impact Cooper had on their offense. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams seem likely to be able to move the ball running the football — and that will open up their respective passing attacks. This shapes up to be a close game — and the urgency of this single-elimination playoff game should push the scoring into the high-40s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Houston Texans (102). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indianapolis has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a victory over a fellow AFC South rival. And while the Colts generated 436 yards in that contest, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. While QB Andrew Luck gets most of the attention, their defense has been playing quite well as of late. Over their last three games, Indy is allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 314.0 total YPG. In their last eight games, the Colts are allowing just 74.6 rushing YPG while limiting opposing rushers to only 3.47 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Indianapolis stays on the road where have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Colts have also played 7 of their last 9 playoff games on the road Under the Total. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and in their last 15 games against AFC South rivals, the Colts have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South opponents. The Texans have also played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Houston stays at home for this game where they are holding their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 total YPG. The Texans are 3rd in the league by limiting their opponents to just 82.7 rushing YPG. But Houston is averaging only 333.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -29.6 net YPG below their season average. The Texans leaky offensive line is taking a toll on quarterback DeShaun Watson as he has been sacked a whopping 32 times over his last seven starts. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. While the first game between these two teams was a shootout, the second game in Houston saw 45 combined points. Look for the defenses to have a small net advantage in the third meeting between these two teams. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Houston O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Houston Texans (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON MINUS THE POINT(S): This is a tough spot for Indianapolis who stay on the road for the second straight week in a must-win situation. It might be difficult for the Colts to maintain the intensity they needed to bring last Sunday night to defeat the Titans in Nashville. As it is, Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Colts rushed for 158 yards in that game as this has become a team that likes to run the ball to establish their offense. But getting their ground game going will be difficult against this Texans defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 82.7 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering three of their last four contests. Quarterback Andrew Luck is having a great comeback season but he is leading a team that is just 4-4 on the road this season while scoring 24.2 PPG and averaging 369.4 total YPG — and those numbers are -2.9 PPG and -16.8 YPG below their overall season averages. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The team is getting relatively healthy for this game with running back Lamar Miller returning to the field last week while rookie slot receiver Keke Coutee (who caught 10 passes in the first encounter with the Colts this year) looks set to finally play again after missing significant time with his hamstring. One of the reasons I give the Texans the edge in this game is they have more established star talent. This is the first season that head coach Bill O’Brien has had the services of defensive ends J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney for the entire season along with linebacker Whitney Mercilus healthy and playing together. I expect defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will dial up a good scheme in his third opportunity to slow down Luck on offense. Houston also has DeAndre Hopkins who might have enjoyed the best season of all the wide receivers in the NFL simply because he catches everything thrown his way. Second-year DeShaun Watson is also a dynamic player who can match Luck on the field. Home field advantage certainly plays a role in this game as the Texans are 6-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG — and they out-gain their opponents by +52.2 net YPG. Houston’s defense flexes their muscles at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 YPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 opportunities to avenge a loss when playing on their home field. While Watson lacks the playoff experience of Luck, the core of this Texans team got playoff experience after winning two straight AFC South titles before injuries derailed their campaign last year. Expect home field advantage to make the difference between these two teams. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (277) and the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Georgia generated 454 yards in that loss to the Crimson Tide — and they have seen the Under go 4-1-2 in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Georgia plays outstanding defense as they rank 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG and limiting them to only 311.2 total YPG. The Bulldogs’ pass defense is particularly stout as they hold their opponents to only 180.5 passing YPG which is 12th best in the country. Texas may struggle to move the football as they relied heavily on their passing attack. The Longhorns averaged 264.5 passing YPG which ranked 33rd in the nation — and they often went to the pass because they average only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry when running the football. Georgia has played three straight games Over the Total — but they have then played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. And in their last 10 bowl games, the Bulldogs have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Texas has played three straight games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing an Under while they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Longhorns have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while Texas surrendered 508 yards to the Sooners in that game, they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that game with Oklahoma, the Longhorns have played better on the defensive side of the football where they have held their last three opponents to just 22.0 PPG along with only 338.0 total YPG. This is a team that has played 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog on a neutral field getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Longhorns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are run-first oriented teams. With the Total in the high-50s approaching 60, expect a lower-scoring contest. 10* CFB New Year’s Day Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (277) and the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia fancies themselves as an elite program despite rarely winning a big game since Hershel Walker led them to a national championship just before Ronald Reagan took office as President of the United States. The Bulldogs feel they were robbed out of being one of the top four teams in the country tapped to play in the College Football Playoffs despite blowing a 28-14 lead to the Crimson Tide and despite a 20-point loss to LSU (and playing a weakling non-conference schedule). Georgia are worse than blue bloods because they think they have earned the privileges of the elite without putting in any of the work to garner requisite achievements. If only the Bulldogs could rely on nepotism to get into the playoffs! This is all to say that I expect Georgia to be over-confident in this matchup as they will likely expect the Longhorns to faint at the sight of them taking the field. Star cornerback DeAndre Baker might have set the tone for this team when he decided to bypass this game to stay healthy for the upcoming NFL draft. His absence does leave the Bulldogs secondary vulnerable to Texas’ pair of big wide receivers in Collin Johnson (6’6) and Jordan Humphrey (6’4) who combined to accumulate 1964 receiving yards with 16 combined touchdowns. Georgia also displayed some issues in their run defense against the better teams on their schedule as they allowed Alabama, Auburn, and LSU to rush for over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs allowed 25.2 PPG when away from home which is almost a touchdown more than their season average. Georgia got into some high-scoring affairs down the stretch of the season with at least 63 combined points scored in each of their last three games. That is not exactly the style of play that Kirby Smart likes to nurture as a defensive-minded head coach — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Quarterback Jake Fromm completed 25 of 39 passes for 301 yards in their loss to Alabama — and Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Their sophomore QB Sam Ehlinger played well in defeat by completing 23 of 36 passes for 349 yards while adding another 42 rushing yards and accounting for four overall touchdowns in their loss to the Sooners. The Longhorns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Ehlinger has done a very good job of protecting the football as he threw 25 TD passes while tossing only five interceptions with eleven games this season where he did not throw an interception. But Texas did surrender 379 passing yards to Oklahoma in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 19 games after allowing at least 375 passing yards in their last game. This Texas defense has steadily improved as they held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Longhorns play well in these big games under head coach Tom Herman as they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 62 point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five games played on a neutral field as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: Herman has certainly thrived in these underdog situations in his head coaching tenure at Houston and now in Austin, Texas. His teams are 12-3 ATS in their fifteen games as an underdog with Herman leading his team to the upset victory in ten of these contests. Texas certainly has more to prove in this game with a high-profile win in this bowl game doing wonders for their psyche and recruiting profile moving forward — while Georgia still complains that they would have beaten Notre Dame and Oklahoma last Saturday. Expect a close game. 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (275) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won four straight games after they defeated Utah by a 10-3 score back on November 30th in the Pac-12 Championship Game where they were 4.5-point favorites. Ohio State (12-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 1st by a 45-24 score as a 16.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Washington held the Utes to just a 188 yards of offense in that contest — and they have played  8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies are one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they hold their opponents to just 15.4 PPG which is 4th best in the nation while also holding these foes to only 301.8 total YPG which is 10th best in the country. This defense travels as they only allow 16.0 PPG when on the road along with just 307.0 total YPG. And in their last three contests, Washington is allowing only 13.7 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. But the Huskies offense has held them back this season — they are scoring only 20.4 PPG when away from home while averaging just 381.0 total YPG which is over 30 YPG less than their season average. Washington has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when facing a team with a winning record. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field, the Huskies have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Ohio State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Buckeyes generated 525 yards of offense against the Wildcats’ defense — but they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Many bettors will take the Over based on the explosiveness of the Ohio State offense that ranks second in the nation by averaging 548.8 total YPG. The 62 points they put on Michigan was certainly impressive. But the Wolverines suffered some key injuries to a few of the best players on their defense in that game — and the unwillingness of their defensive coordinator to not get out of man coverage facilitated the Buckeyes’ ability to continually burn the Michigan secondary. Washington has perhaps the best secondary in the country and plays a base nickel scheme which should mitigate the advantages Ohio State enjoyed in their big rivalry game. The Buckeyes defense underperformed all season as well — the talent that team has on defense is much better than the 25.7 PPG they allowed suggests. Ohio State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after their bye week. The Buckeyes have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State’s defense should play better with the extra weeks of preparation against a specific offense. Washington allowed more than 24 points only once this season. 20* CFB Washington-Ohio State ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (275) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (275) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won four straight games after they defeated Utah by a 10-3 score back on November 30th in the Pac-12 Championship Game where they were 4.5-point favorites. Ohio State (12-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 1st by a 45-24 score as a 16.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a victory by no more than a touchdown against a Pac-12 rival. The Huskies dominated the Utes in that game by limiting them to just 188 yards of offense while out-gaining them by +118 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards. The Huskies are one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they hold their opponents to just 15.4 PPG which is 4th best in the nation while also holding these foes to only 301.8 total YPG which is 10th best in the country. This defense travels as they only allow 16.0 PPG when on the road along with just 307.0 total YPG. And in their last three contests, Washington is allowing only 13.7 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. But the Huskies offense has held them back this season — they are scoring only 20.4 PPG when away from home while averaging just 381.0 total YPG which is over 30 YPG less than their season average. Washington entered the year with high expectations — they were my Top Underlay Bet regarding future wagers to win the National Championship. Their opening game 5-point loss in Atlanta to Auburn placed those plays aspirations in jeopardy right away — but this is still a team that was three plays away from being undefeated this season with their other two losses occurring by just 3 and 2 points. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by at least three touchdowns against a Big Ten rival. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after winning at least five games in a row. And while Ohio State has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the spread in three of their last four. The Buckeyes have an explosive offense but the defense has underachieved all season by allowing 400.3 total YPG which ranks 68th in the nation. It was even worse away from the Horseshoe for this team as they surrendered 465.5 total YPG when playing on the road. Too often, the four and five-star players did not respond to coaching by committing fundamental blunders when it comes to assignment football. Ohio State gave up 38.0 PPG over their last three games. The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: This will be Urban Meyer’s last game coaching the Buckeyes with him retiring after this game. While there are certainly sentiments inside the program that would love to have him go out a winner, wasn’t there a similar motivation to redeem Meyer after the scandals in the fall that triggered his three-game suspension? I find that analysis overplayed and likely accounted for in the point spread where they are laying around 7 points. This game presents the Washington football team the opportunity to earn another signature win after losses to Alabama in the College Playoff two years ago before their loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl last season and their opening week loss to Auburn this year. 10* CFB Washington-Ohio State ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (275) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (273) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has once again feasted on non-Power Five Conference competition this season. While the Knights put up Top-Five offensive numbers this season, they only faced one team ranked in the top-25 statistical defenses in the nation — and that was a Cincinnati team that surrendered 31 points to a Virginia Tech team that few would describe as an offensive dynamo this season. On paper, the Knights have a strong defense that ranked 25th in the nation by allowing only 21.3 PPG. But their defense also ranked 83rd in the FBS by allowing 423.6 total YPG. The huge weakness of this UCF defense is their run defense as they ranked 117th in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 227.4 rushing YPG. Lazy observers might attribute that terrible number on them playing the strong rushing attack of Memphis twice who gashed them for 280 and then 401 yards in their two meetings. OK … and I suppose we get to throw out the 374 rushing yards Navy gouged them for because they run the run-dominant spread triple option. Well, what is the excuse for the 320 rushing yards Florida Atlantic racked up against them? Or the 252 rushing yards accumulated by Cincinnati? Or the 226 rushing yards that Temple produced? Or the 220 yards that the offensive juggernaut of UConn managed to compile? Or South Florida’s 196 rushing yards? LSU’s running back Nick Brossette should have a big day against the Knights’ defensive line that was run over by the smaller offensive line and less talented tailbacks. The reason that UCF was able to survive from their bend but not break defense was in large part due to some fortunate bounces with turnovers as they are 3rd in the nation by a +1.17 net turnover margin. Unfortunately for the Knights, outlier turnovers margins like that are rarely sustainable — and they do not face a friendly competitor this afternoon when it comes to giving the ball away. LSU averages 0.9 turnovers per game this season — and UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against opponents who do not turn the ball over more than 1.0 times per game. On offense, Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. UCF has averaged 7.76 and 6.80 Yards-Per-Play over their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. LSU should be playing with a chip on their shoulder after their infuriating seven overtime loss to Texas A&M to end their season. They now face the intriguing fashion of attempting to expose the weaknesses of this upstart Group of Five Conference opponent has not lost a game in two seasons. Auburn appeared to be unmotivated by this challenge last season in the Peach Bowl as they were upset by 34-27 score. If that does not get the Tigers’ attention, I think they have the perfect head coach for this situation in Ed Orgeron who is a motivator and well-liked by his players — and his humble background should ensure he does not take this UCF team lightly. LSU is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Furthermore, LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on grass. And in their last 6 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points, the Tigers have covered the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: LSU hammered Georgia by 20 points — so they have the talent still that can hang with the very best teams in College Football. Central Florida’s twenty-five game winning streak has seen more than its share of good bounces and beats. I think the luck finally runs out against an LSU team coached by an individual who will not let them make the mistakes Auburn did last year. 10* CFB LSU-Central Florida ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (273) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (271) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (272). Kentucky (9-3) has won two straight games with their 56-10 victory at Louisville as a 17-point favorite to close out their regular season back on November 24th. Penn State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 38-3 victory against Maryland back on November 24th as a 12-point favorite. These two teams meet in Orlando for the Citrus Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games away from home after a game where they did not allow more than 6 points. And while the Nittany Lions have not allowed more than 269 total yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in three straight games. Penn State has a 4-1 record on the road this year but they are only out-gaining these opponents by +0.8 net YPG. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 meetings with a team from the SEC. Run defense is an area of concern for this team as they allowed their opponents to rush for 168.4 rushing YPG. Enter running back Benny Snell and this Kentucky offense that ranked 35th in the nation by averaging 201.3 rushing YPG. The Wildcats gobbled 300 rushing yards in their victory over the Cardinals in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Kentucky has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 17 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Wildcats dominated that game with Louisville as they out-gained them by +296 net yards which is a good sign for them now as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. This Kentucky team plays outstanding defense as they ranked 7th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 16.3 PPG — and they also ranked 21st in the FBS by allowing only 332.2 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Wildcats outscored their five opponents on the road by +7.0 PPG. This stout defense should keep them in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has lost two bowl games in a row in the last two seasons after losing a heartbreaker to Northwestern by a 24-23 score in last year’s Music City Bowl. With star linebacker Josh Allen shunning the en vogue trend of NFL-caliber players skipping this game to “prepare” for the NFL draft, look for his teammates to rally around him as they look to finally win a bowl game in the six-year tenure of head coach Mike Stoops. 10* CFB Kentucky-Penn State ABC-TV Special with the Kentucky Wildcats (271) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: LSU has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games after a game where at least a combined 60 points were scored. The LSU defense was once again one of the best units in the nation as they ranked 24th in the nation by allowing only 20.9 PPG and they also ranked 29th in the FBS by giving up just 346.1 total YPG. Even with that multiple overtime game against the Aggies, the Tigers only allowed 311.7 total YPG over their last three games. Their secondary will be without their two starting cornerbacks with Greedy Williams taking the game off to prepare for the NFL draft and Kristian Fulton dealing with a foot injury. But LSU always has talent at the cornerback position — and the Tigers coaching staff has had a month to develop the next players up on the depth chart. LSU has played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least two weeks between games. The Tigers outstanding defensive line will help alleviate some of the pressure that the Knights wide receivers will offer to their secondary. LSU has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the favorite. The Tigers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Central Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Knights have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points. And while UCF generated a whopping 698 yards of offense against the Memphis defense, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the Knights surrendered 583 yards to the Memphis offense with 401 yards being on the ground. UCF has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after giving up at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. The Knights have had a bend but not break defense that has allowed only 21.3 PPG which is 25th best in the nation. UCF has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. The big question for this game is how this Group of Five team will handle the significant step up in competition against an elite Power-Five Conference opponent. This year’s UCF team faced only one top-25 statistical defense in Cincinnati (who just surrendered 31 points to a mediocre Virginia Tech offense). Tellingly, the Knights have seen the Under go 8-0-1 in their last 9 games against fellow SEC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: LSU will commit to running the football to control the line of scrimmage and keep the explosive UCF offense off the field. That dynamic should help contribute to this being a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (269) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (270). Iowa (8-4) has won two straight games with their 31-28 win over Nebraska to close out their regular season back on November 23rd as a 7.5-point favorite. Mississippi State (8-4) has won two games in a row as well with their 35-3 win at Ole Miss back on November 22nd as a 12.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Tampa Bay in the Outback Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State preceded their big rivalry game win over the Rebels in the Egg Bowl with a 52-6 win over Arkansas. But the Bulldogs may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference rivals. Mississippi State has won four of their last five games while covering the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs are led by their defense that is tops in the nation by allowing only 12.0 PPG and just 268.4 total YPG. They have held their last three opponents to only 237.7 YPG — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after holding their last three opponents to no better than 250 YPG. Furthermore, while Mississippi State has allowed just a field goal in the first-half of two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after not allowing more than 7 first-half points in two straight games. The problem for this Bulldogs team is that when they are playing away from home, they are scoring only 15.2 PPG while averaging just 317.6 total YPG. Their offense is too one-dimensional as they are averaging just 175.6 passing YPG behind senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald which ranks 110th in the nation. Mississippi State has committed no more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 major bowl games played in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field when the favorite. Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a narrow win at home by 3 points or less. And while the Hawkeyes have not covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. This Iowa team has an outstanding defense themselves that ran 11th in the nation by allowing just 17.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the FBS by giving up only 289.7 total YPG. Their defensive line has racked up an impressive 28.5 combined sacks. This strong defense helps them play well on the road — the Hawkeyes are outscoring teams by +19.6 PPG when playing away from Iowa City while out-gaining these opponents by +83.0 net YPG. Iowa has also outscored their last three opponents by +20.7 PPG while out-gaining them by +71.7 net YPG. Junior QB Nate Stanley will not have the services of his star tight end Noah Gant who is skipping this game to stay healthy for the NFL draft — but he still has Mackey Award winner T.J. Hockenson as another tight end target which is not too shabby. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take an underdog getting around 7 points in an expected low-adoring game offers us nice value. Mississippi State’s lack of a potent passing attack should help head coach Kirk Ferentz oversee a defensive scheme that will limit the Bulldogs’ scoring chances which will keep the Hawkeyes in this game. 20* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa Hawkeyes (269) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). NC State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 58-3 win over East Carolina back on December 1st as a 24.5-point favorite. Texas A&M (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 74-72 win in multiple overtimes against LSU as a 3-point favorite back on November 24th. These two teams meet in Jacksonville for the Taxslayer Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by senior quarterback Ryan Finley, the Wolfpack offense scores 35.6 PPG while averaging 471.3 total YPG — those numbers rank 20th and 15th best in the nation. Over their last three games, this offense was clicking on all cylinders by scoring 48.0 PPG while averaging 526.7 total YPG. Finley will be without wide receiver Kelvin Harmon who is skipping this game to avoid injury prior to the NFL draft but he still has a host of other weapons including a 1000-yard receiver in Jakobi Meyers. He will be using this game to build his own NFL draft resume — and he should feast off an Aggies secondary that ranked 111th in the nation by allowing 262.7 passing YPG. Opposing quarterbacks completed 61% of their passes against the Texas A&M defense while throwing 25 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions. But the Wolfpack defense will likely struggle to slow down the Aggies’ offense. In their five games on the road, NC State surrendered 30.0 PPG while allowing those opponents to average 439.2 total YPG. Their defense will be without their best player and top tackler in linebacker Germaine Pratt who is also bypassing this game for NFL prep. This is a defense that was torched by opposing quarterbacks as they ranked 120th in the nation by allowing 271.2 passing YPG. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Wolfpack’s last 16 games against non-conference opponents. NC State has also played 6 straight bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. The Wolfpack have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing as an underdog on a neutral field. Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. Texas A&M has their own dynamic quarterback in Kellen Mond who threw 23 touchdown passes while leading an offense that scored 34.7 PPG (26th in the nation) and averaged 465.8 total YPG (19th in the FBS). The Aggies have played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: NC State and Texas A&M have run defense that rank 13th and 2nd in the nation respectively — so don’t be surprised if the running games are abandoned for more passing. More passing means more possessions which helps our Over play. This shapes up to be a wild high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Michigan State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season on November 24th with their 14-10 win over Rutgers as a 24.5-point favorite. Oregon (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 55-15 win at Oregon State on November 23rd as an 18-point favorite. These two teams meeting Santa Clara’s Levi Stadium for the newly named Redox Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State had sky-high expectations this season with nineteen starters back from a team that went 10-3 last season which culminated in a 42-17 drubbing of a Washington State team in the Holiday Bowl who then defeated these Ducks this season by double-digits. Injuries on offense held Sparty back this year with quarterback Brian Lewerke and running back L.J. Scott both battling injuries all season. Both players have had five weeks to heel and both should as healthy as they have been in months for this bowl game as the Spartans look to end their season on a high note. There is little wrong with the Michigan State defense that ranked 12th in the nation by allowing just 18.0 PPG while also ranking 14th in the FBS by allowing their opponents to average just 311.5 total YPG. Sparty was also 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to -106 YPG below their season offensive average. They limited Ohio State to just 347 yards of offense — so they should be able to contain Justin Herbert and this Ducks’ offense with the few weeks of preparation. Michigan State has allowed only four offensive touchdowns in their last five games. After shutting down the Buckeyes offense, the Spartans then limited Nebraska to 248 yards of offense before allowing Rutgers to gain a mere 217 yards in their final regular season game. Michigan State is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This defense travels as well as they only allowed 13.2 PPG in their five games away from East Lansing while limiting those opponents to just 294.0 YPG. The Spartans out-gained their five opponents on the road by +64.0 net YPG. Head coach Mark Dantoni should have his team ready to play this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games when played on a neutral field. Oregon has been reliably inconsistent as of late. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Oregon is just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. And while the Ducks offense generated 510 yards against Beavers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. This Oregon team was riding high after they pulled off an upset win over Washington — but then they fell to earth with double-digit losses to Washington State and Arizona while allowing an offensively-challenged Utah team score 32 points against them. In their five games away from home, the Ducks were out-gained by -24.8 net YPG. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when favored by no more than 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State is a very physical team with five weeks to rest up and heal for this game. The team with the closest profile to their style of play that Oregon played was Stanford — and the Cardinal defeated the Ducks by a 38-31 score. Dantoni relishes the underdog role for his Spartans. His teams have covered the point spread in their last five bowl games as the dog with Dantoni leading his team to the straight-up upset win in those last four bowl contests. Expect another upset — but take the points for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB Bowl Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (260). Pittsburgh (7-6) has lost two straight games after their 42-10 loss to Clemson as a 27-point underdog on December 1st in the ACC Championship Game. Stanford (8-4) has won three straight games with their 23-13 win at California on December 1st as a 3-point favorite. These two teams meet in El Paso, Texas in the Sun Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh had won four straight games to put themselves in position to play for the ACC Championship before a 21-point loss at Miami preceded their blowout loss to the Tigers. Head coach Pat Narduzzi should have his team ready to play in this game as his team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. Quarterback Kenny Pickett suffered an embarrassing game against the outstanding Clemson defense as he completed only 4 of 16 passes for a mere 8 yards. That eye-popping stat line should have served as motivation for Pickett to work even harder in bowl practices for this game. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to pass for at least 75 yards in their last game. While the play of Narduzzi’s defense remains a disappointment given the reputation he established as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State, the young talent on that unit should have benefitted from the extra weeks of bowl preparation. Pittsburgh saw their nine-year bowl streak snapped last year so this group should have something to prove in this game. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win on the road — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last games after a point spread win. Frankly, the Cardinal was fortunate to pull off that final win over the Golden Bears as they were out-gained by -23 net yards. A +2 net turnover margin helped to make up that difference in yardage — but Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where they had a +2 or better turnover margin. This is not a typical team for head coach David Shaw in his eighth year with the program. This Cardinal group ranked 122nd in the FBS by averaging just 108.3 rushing YPG. Superstar running back Bryce Love battled injuries all season — and he has decided to skip this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Stanford is very vulnerable on pass defense as they allowed 274.7 passing YPG which ranked 121st in the FBS. And when this team played away from Palo Alto, the Cardinal were out-gained by -90.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Motivation has to be questioned for this underachieving Stanford team as they will be playing their third straight bowl game in a second-tier contest hosted in the State of Texas. This is the Cardinal’s second appearance at the Sun Bowl in the last three years as well. Pitt is motivated to redeem themselves from two bad losses to end the season — and the opportunity to knock off a blue-blood like Stanford has to be appealing. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Pittsburgh-Stanford CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (258). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning their last two games of the season culminating in their 41-20 blowout win over Marshall on December 1st as a 3.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (10-2) has won four of their last five games with their 56-6 blowout win over East Carolina as a 15.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Annapolis in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech ended the season with just twelve starters back from last year’s 9-4 season. Three-fourths of the incoming roster was just freshman and sophomores — so depth was very thin. Unfortunately for the Hokies, this team was hit hard with injuries including three starters on defense and their incumbent starting quarterback all being lost for the season. A handful of other contributors were also dismissed by third-year head coach Justin Fuente. This team could have folded up the tent and gone home to end their season after upsetting a solid Virginia team at the end of November — but this team played hard with the opportunity to play the Thundering Herd in a rescheduled game from earlier in the season and they earned the opportunity to play in this game. I think the extra week of bowl preparation will be of enormous benefit for Fuente defensive coordinator Bud Foster further develop this young team with the benefit of tailoring their practices to a specific opponent in the Bearcats. So, throw out the Hokies underwhelming offensive and defensive numbers for this one. Virginia Tech disappointed with six straight point spread losers before covering the point spread in their final two games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Virginia Tech is seeing the continued development of their 6’4 junior quarterback Ryan Willis who completed 18 of 26 passes for 312 with four touchdown passes against Marshall. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Virginia Tech has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two straight Overs. Furthermore, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of December which is good evidence of the continued development this coaching staff sees in their players. Cincinnati has enjoyed a surprising 10-win season after only winning eight of their previous twenty-four games over the last two seasons. They fit the blueprint of a team happy to reach a bowl game for the first time in three seasons and may let up a bit when reading that they are nearly a touchdown favorite in this game. As it is, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home against an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Cincinnati has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. The Bearcats average 34.9 PPG and 458.2 total YPG this season which is 25th and 24th in the nation respectively — but those numbers plummeted in their six games away from home to just 25.3 PPG and 393.8 total YPG marks. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Additionally, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games — and they are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of December. Lastly, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech certainly played the more difficult schedule this season with the ACC being a better conference than the American Athletic Conference. Expect the Hokies to be an improved team this afternoon after a month of additional practice — they should (at least) keep this game close. 10* CFB Virginia Tech-Cincinnati ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (321) and the Tennessee Titans (322). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Indianapolis generated 402 yards in that contest against the Giants — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indianapolis allowed Eli Manning and the New York offense to gain 392 yards in that contest — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Colts are playing great defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 16.0 PPG along with only 333.0 total YPG. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Indianapolis has valued 23 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Tennessee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Titans stay at home for this game this week — and they have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last week’s game at home. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. Tennessee has played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total as the underdog. This team will also be looking to avenge a 38-10 loss to the Colts back on November 18th. The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least four touchdowns to their opponent — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss.

FINAL TAKE: The Tennessee offense received a bad piece of news with this afternoon’s announcement that QB Marcus Mariota would not be able to play given his concerning stinger injury. They will be relying on Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback — and that likely will be all the more reason for them to rely heavily on Derrick Henry and their ground attack which helps our Under with the running clock. Expect a lower-score game. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Tennessee NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (321) and the Tennessee Titans (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: It certainly is tempting to take Andrew Luck with the Colts in this game as he offers a significant edge at the quarterback position over Blaine Gabbert who was named the starter this afternoon after Marcus Mariota was officially ruled out with his stinger injury. This situation is a perfect example why it is often prudent to wait on the decision to invest in certain situations. And after the news of Gabbert being the quarterback, I had to get in the trenches with research to block my natural inclination to want to bet-against this quarterback that has failed to meet his prior expectations. All the while, I have watched most of the betting world take the Colts in this game — and that has compelled me to believe that it looks awfully easy to take that side of the equation right now. Well, let’s not forget that it is this Tennessee team that has the playoff team — and it is this Titans team with the better defense that will also have the benefit of home field and an energetic crowd for this nationally-televised night game. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. They limited the Skins to just 131 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Admittedly, this Tennessee defense is dealing with some tough injuries with defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, cornerback Logan Ryan and linebacker Brian Orakpo all out for this game. With everything at stake, head coach Mike Vrabel will be preaching the “next man up” — and it helps that this team is playing at home with these subs being energized by the crowd. The Titans are 6-1 at home this year with an average winning margin of +6.1 PPG. Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. This team is further motivated to avenge their ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis back on November 18th. The embarrassment of that loss should ensure this team is primed and ready for this game. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging a loss where their opponent allowed at least 35 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. Going full circle back to Gabbert, the fact is that he has been a capable professional quarterback since leaving the team that drafted him in Jacksonville. Gabbert completed 11 of 16 passes in relief in that game last month with the Colts albeit in garbage time. Gabbert has won his two starts for this team this season when playing for Mariota. He has completed 18 of 27 passes over his last two appearances for 219 yards for a nice 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average while completing 67% of those passes. He has two TD passes and only one interception in those games. He is capable — but perhaps his presence on the field will ensure that Tennessee commits to pounding the football. Running back Derrick Henry is in the zone right now with 492 rushing yards in his last three games. A decision to use heavy personnel with Henry leading the way can exploit the Colts’ Tampa-2 defense which is a scheme that is vulnerable to teams that decide to run the ball since the onus becomes so important on the weak side linebacker to be the primary help in stopping the rushing attack — and that is rookie Darius Leonard who has played very well this season but it is not quite Derrick Brooks or Lance Briggs at that position. Indianapolis is just 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home. Furthermore, the Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games coming off a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Luck passed for 357 yards last week while leading an offense that gained 402 yards. But Indy has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 300 yards — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Colts have been much better at home in Lucas Oil Stadium: on the road, they are just 3-4 while being outscored by -0.4 PPG. Indianapolis had that stinker of a game last month where they were shutout on the road in Jacksonville. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games after winning at least eight of their last ten games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after gaining at least 400 yards.

FINAL TAKE: I recommend holding out as long as possible to see if you can grab a +6 with the Titans — all anything at +4.5 points or higher is nice for this situation. The question is not “who will win this game” — it is whether or not Luck and company cover the point spread they are being required to lay with Mariota out against a team with a great home field edge and an even better defense that is through-the-roof motivated to avenge a loss and get back to the playoffs. The value is all on the side of the Titans given this situation. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.