At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (341) and the Kentucky Wildcats (342). THE SITUATION: Mississippi (1-0) kicked off their season with a 63-7 victory at home against Georgia State as a 33.5-point favorite last Saturday. Kentucky (1-0) began their year with a 24-16 victory at home against Toledo as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rebels generated 695 yards against the Panthers — and redshirt freshman Austin Simmons completed 20 of 31 passes for 341 yards. I’m intrigued by the southpaw —but the offensive effort might speak more about the state of the Georgia State defense than the level of the polish in his game. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. I suspect that head coach Lane Kiffin will lean on the rushing attack in his first start on the road — especially against a fellow SEC rival. Kiffin lost 18 starters from that team, including quarterback Jaxson Dart and three of his targets in the passing game, who all got drafted into the NFL. But the talent in the wide receiver room seems to have taken a step back (it’s not a great sign when transfers are coming in from Penn State’s underwhelming group of wideouts last year). The offensive line may be an even bigger concern. After returning 222 combined starts last year, this year’s group only has 78 combined starts from one returning starter and the transfers. Cohesion will be an issue -- and the whispers remain that the work rate of Kiffin’s offensive lines over the years can be underwhelming. The Ole Miss defense stepped up by holding the Panthers to just 260 yards of offense. Third-year defensive coordinator Pete Golding is fantastic — one of the best things Kiffin has done is poaching him away from Nick Saban and Alabama. His defense ranked second in the FBS by giving up only 14.4 PPG — and they ranked third in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SPE defensive rating system. The Rebels have played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight games on the road Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. And in their last 10 games on the road, they have played 8 of those games Under the Total — and they have only scored more than 28 points once in the last two seasons on the road against a fellow SEC rival. Kentucky managed only 305 total yards last week in the victory against the Rockets. Expectations were high for seventh-year senior quarterback Zach Calzada, who is a former Texas A&M recruit who played his last two seasons at Incarnate Word. He completed only 10 of 23 passes for 85 yards with an interception and no throws deemed “Big-Time.” Against the Rockets' pass defense, he took 3.1 seconds per throw. Now he faces this Golding defense that led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss — and while much of that production went on to the NFL, junior linebacker Suntarine Perkins remains after the former five-star recruit registered 10.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss last year. Golding has designed the defense this season around his future NFL talents. Calzada failed against SEC competition early in his career when playing for the Aggies and then Auburn. It may be too much to ask for him to thrive when inheriting a Wildcats team that averaged only 330.4 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 20.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking 114th and 119th in the nation. The Kentucky defense earned them the victory against one of the best Group of Five football programs — they held Toledo to just 329 total yards. The Wildcats run defense registered a stuff rate in 42% of the Rockets rushes — and they limited them to just 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Perhaps even more encouraging head coach Mark Stoops, Toledo only executed on 8 of their 31 third or fourth down attempts. Stoops brought in defensive end Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, who might have been the best player in the FCS after registering 18.5 tackles for loss at South Dakota last season, to take a central role in his defense this season. Stoops knows to slow down Kiffin’s zone-read option attack — even with Dart at quarterback, Ole Miss has scored only 19.5 PPG in the last two seasons against the Wildcats defense. Kentucky has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 7 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total. And in their last 30 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, the Wildcats have played 19 of those games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: After Mississippi beat Kentucky two years ago by a 22-19 score, the Wildcats upset the Rebels last year by a 20-17 score at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on September 28th last season. Kentucky has played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total in the first month of the season — and Ole Miss has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in September. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (341) and the Kentucky Wildcats (342). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (454) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (453). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) was 11-7 in their first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh after losing by a 33-12 score at Houston in the AFC wildcard round of the playoffs. Kansas City (0-0) comes off a 17-3 season that ended in their 40-22 loss against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo, Brazil.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Deciding to pay for a professional football coach did wonders for the Chargers last season as they upped their win total by six victories — and their 11-6 regular season record got them into the playoffs. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s immediate change of culture with an approach that emphasizes winning the battle at the line of scrimmage while running the ball and limiting mistakes was effective. While the Chargers got outgained by -0.2 net Yards-Per-Game, they still outscored their opponents by +5.9 Points-Per-Game. While the media lionizes most of the head coaches in the NFL, it is amazing how successful Bill Belichick’s old “wait for the other guy to start making mistakes” philosophy still works. With Najee Harris signed in free agency and Omarion Hampton drafted from North Carolin in the first round, the running back room is improved. Herbert’s targets in the passing game are better with the additions of rookie Tre Harris (who led the FBS with 128.8 passing Yards-Per-Game at Ole Miss) and tight end Tyler Conklin, along with the return of veteran wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. They join second-year breakout star Ladd McConkey, along with the former first-round pick Quentin Johnson, in the receiving corps. Herbert needed more reliable targets in the end zone after the team only had 13 touchdown passes inside the red zone last year. On the other side of the ball, it will probably be too much to ask for the Chargers to once again lead the NFL by limiting their opponents to 17.7 PPG. That was almost a touchdown better than the 23.4 PPG they surrendered the previous season. The plexiglass principle is sound in that dramatic improvements in one area tend to regress a bit the following season. However, there was a qualitative difference with the defense last year, with the defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying the Michigan/Baltimore Ravens’ innovative scheme that emphasizes deceptive post-snap adjustments and positional flexibility. Strong safety Derwin James Jr. thrived with this opportunity to demonstrate his flexibility. Harbaugh’s run-first philosophy that emphasized protecting the football certainly helped as well. The unit is now replacing defensive linemen Poona Ford and Morgan Fox, linebacker Joey Bosa, and cornerbacks Asante Samuel Jr. and Kristian Fulton. It’s not too difficult to put a positive spin on those chances. Bosa is getting old and struggles to stay on the field. Samuel remained unsigned heading into the fall training camps. The players may not have been the best fits for Minter’s scheme, which requires players to have multiple skill sets. There appear to be rising stars at defensive end with third-year-pro Tuli Tuipulotu and linebacker Daiyan Henley complementing proven veterans Khalil Mack and James. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams from the AFC, including all five of those games played on the road. I backed Kansas City in the Super Bowl last February — so I sure got that one wrong. They entered that game with a 12-0 record in games decided by one-scoring possession, so perhaps they were living on borrowed time. The Chiefs certainly got exposed by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. The problems at tackle on the offensive line were evident all season — for several years, in fact, since not re-signing left tackle Orlando Brown — yet the Chiefs kept on winning two Super Bowls in a row and then 17 of their first 19 games last year. Not only did the Eagles' rotation of pass rushers make Mahomes look silly, but the Philly offense carved up the interior of the Kansas City defensive line. Reid and general manager Brett Veach attacked the offensive line problem in the offseason. They signed left tackle Jaylon Moore from San Francisco, who has spent the past few seasons serving as the understudy to future Hall of Famer Trent Williams. He has not been a full-time starter in the league, but he brings promise after being responsible for only five sacks in 446 dropbacks. Veach then drafted Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons, at the end of the first round. If not for a season-ending knee injury in October, he might have been one of the first ten players selected in the draft. But the offensive line did lose All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, who signed a big contract with Chicago. The plan is for last year’s second-round pick, Kingsley Suamataia, to move to left guard after struggling at left tackle last year. Until proven otherwise, I suspect the new offensive line will be a work in progress — and that will hold the offense back from rediscovering the explosiveness in their passing game. They did not score 30 or more points even once in the regular season — wide receiver Rashee Rice begins serving his six-game suspension, leaving Mahomes' list of targets once again less than full strength. Kansas City’s defense ranked 28th in the league in Opponent Power Run Success Rate Allowed. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road against fellow AFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: In Harbaugh’s head coach tenure with San Francisco and then Los Angeles last season, he has his teams ready to play early in the season. Harbaugh’s NFL teams have covered the point spread in 25 of their 35 games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 games in the first two weeks of the season. 10* NFL Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (454) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (453) and the Los Angeles Chargers (454). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) comes off a 17-3 season that ended in their 40-22 loss against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Los Angeles (0-0) was 11-7 in their first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh after losing by a 33-12 score at Houston in the AFC wildcard round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo, Brazil.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City’s offense was certainly exposed by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. The problems at tackle on the offensive line were evident all season — for several years, in fact, since not re-signing left tackle Orlando Brown — yet the Chiefs kept on winning two Super Bowls in a row and then 17 of their first 19 games last year. Not only did the Eagles' rotation of pass rushers make Patrick Mahomes look silly, but the Philly offense carved up the interior of the Kansas City defensive line. Head coach Andy Reid and general manager Brett Veach attacked the offensive line problem in the offseason. They signed left tackle Jaylon Moore from San Francisco, who has spent the past few seasons serving as the understudy to future Hall of Famer Trent Williams. Veach then drafted Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons at the end of the first round. But the offensive line did lose All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, who signed a big contract with Chicago. The plan is for last year’s second-round pick, Kingsley Suamataia, to move to left guard after struggling at left tackle last year. Until proven otherwise, I suspect the new offensive line will be a work in progress — and that will hold the offense back from rediscovering the explosiveness in their passing game. They did not score 30 or more points even once in the regular season — wide receiver Rashee Rice begins serving his six-game suspension, leaving Mahomes' list of targets once again less than full strength. On the other side of the ball, Veach added defensive tackle Jerry Tillery from Minnesota and then drafted defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott from Tennessee in the second round to bolster their run defense, which the Eagles pounded them on. Kansas City surrendered only 320.6 total Yards-Per-Game last season which resulted in 19.2 Points-Per-Game, ranking ninth and fourth in the league. The Chiefs have 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Deciding to pay for a professional football coach did wonders for the Chargers last season as they upped their win total by six victories — and their 11-6 regular season record got them into the playoffs. But Los Angeles got exposed in the playoffs in a 32-12 loss at Houston. It was the eighth time that they failed to score more than 17 points. The 110.7 rushing Yards-Per-Game they averaged were the lowest total for a Harbaugh-coached team at the collegiate or NFL level — and the season-ending injury to left tackle Rashawn Slater early in training camp does not help that cause. The interior of the line remains a question. It will probably be too much to ask for the Chargers to once again lead the NFL by limiting their opponents to 17.7 PPG — but they should still have a good defense. The plexiglass principle indicates that dramatic improvements in one area tend to regress a bit in the following season. Using the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders, Los Angeles ranked 21st in Defensive DVOA in 2022-23 and 26th in ’23-24 before improving to ninth last season. However, there was a qualitative difference with the defense last year, with the defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying the Michigan/Baltimore Ravens’ innovative scheme that emphasizes deceptive post-snap adjustments and positional flexibility. Strong safety Derwin James Jr. thrived with this opportunity to demonstrate his flexibility. Harbaugh’s run-first philosophy that emphasized protecting the football certainly helped as well. The unit is now replacing defensive linemen Poona Ford and Morgan Fox, linebacker Joey Bosa, and cornerbacks Asante Samuel Jr. and Kristian Fulton. It’s not too difficult to put a positive spin on those chances. Bosa is getting old and struggles to stay on the field. Samuel remained unsigned heading into the fall training camps. The players may not have been the best fits for Minter’s scheme, which requires players to have multiple skill sets. There appear to be rising stars at defensive end with third-year pro Tuli Tuipulotu and linebacker Daiyan Henley complementing proven veterans Khalil Mack and James. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first half of the season - and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. They have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Chargers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. This game is being played on a neutral field that has slick grass appropriate for soccer. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on grass — and Kansas City has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total on grass, including eight of those 11 games played on the road. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (453) and the Los Angeles Chargers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) comes off a 7-10 season last year. Philadelphia (0-0) returns to the field as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 40-22 victory against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: From their 82-year-old owner/President/General Manager to the seemingly hours of daily coverage in the Sports Hot Take Industrial Complex, the Cowboys have devolved into a franchise that is high on its own supply. Winning games seems to be besides the point, a worthy pursuit only if it will generate more clicks somewhere. But this has become such a conventional wisdom talking point that relying on this argument is assessing the point spread in most likely counter-productive. The seemingly near-unanimous opinion that Dallas just got crushed in the Micah Parsons trade only confounds this perception. Quarterback Dan Prescott experienced another season spending significant time on the shelf due to an injury. But when he is healthy, the Cowboys are a competitive team, as evidenced by their 36-15 record in the previous three seasons before last year. The hope then is that Prescott stays healthy and regains his form from 2023 — and that the offense will be reignited with the acquisition of wide receiver George Pickens from Pittsburgh. Talent is not the question with Pickens — but he was a malcontent with the Steelers. And the individual deputized to keep Pickens in line is first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who is going to modernize the offense with pre-snap motions and play-action passing that previous head coach Mike McCarthy eschewed. The players were strong advocates for Schottenheimer to replace McCarthy as head coach. Now they have to put their money where they were mouths were by playing hard for him. Favorites in the opening game of the NFL season have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of those last 10 games going to 2015. With Philadelphia being the public’s overwhelming side for this game, how they are being overrated (while the Cowboys are being discounted) is fairly apparent. The defense lost several contributors. Edge rushers Milton Williams and Josh Sweat were both lost in free agency — and they accounted for 4.5 of the six sacks of Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Cornerback Darius Slay was released in a salary cap move, and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson was traded away. Much is now being asked of nose tackle Jordan Davis, who is the remaining early draft pick from Georgia who has yet to blossom. Linebacker Nakobe Dean will miss much of the season after a torn patellar injury in the playoffs. Hurts has his fourth offensive coordinator in four years, with passing game coordinator Kevin Patullo taking over for Moore, who took the head coaching job in New Orleans. While Hurts posted the sixth-lowest interception rate in the league, his 3.6% turnover-worthy throw rate was 23rd and very close to the 3.7% turnover-worthy throw rate the previous year when he tossed 15 interceptions. Patullo is a Sirianni guy — and his promotion may result in returning to some of the principles that Moore successfully moved away from (like not using motion as much or relying on RPOs as the main mesh between the rushing and passing schemes). It was just two years ago that Sirianni led this team to the Super Bowl for the first time in his tenure. When he promoted from within by choosing Brian Johnson as their next offensive coordinator, the Eagles lost six of their last seven games, leading to that debacle against the Buccaneers. One wonders if this team wins because of Sirianni in the CEO head coaching role — or in spite of him?

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow NFC East rivals. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) comes off a 7-10 season last year. Philadelphia (0-0) returns to the field as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 40-22 victory against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After winning the Super Bowl by beating their last two opponents by 50 combined points, it is safe to say that general manager Howie Roseman pushed the right buttons. He was responsible for the two most important moves last offseason. The first was signing Saquon Barkley as a free agent. Behind an elite offensive line, the running back led the league by averaging 3.0 yards before contact en route to his 2005 rushing yards in the regular season. In the postseason, he averaged 125 rushing Yards-Per-Game. More importantly, his ability to generate big plays even against stacked boxes allowed the offense to ask less of quarterback Jalen Hurts. In my deep dive last year, I voiced concern about Hurts’ career-high 15 interceptions, with opposing defenses too often goading him into bad decisions in the passing game against stacked boxes. With Barkley, Philly could still stick with the run against stacked boxes — he averaged 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry against stacked boxes, with that number rising to an 8.1 YPC clip in the fourth quarter. The Eagles averaged a league-low 26.3 pass attempts per game. But Hurts only threw five interceptions all season. After struggling against the blitz the previous year, Hurts was more effective when facing additional rushers last season — and he did not throw an interception against the blitz after tossing seven picks against additional rushers two years ago. He also thrived in the passing game against single safety coverage that stacked the box to slow Barkley down. Philadelphia scored 27.2 Points-Per-Game in the regular season, ranking seventh in the league, before amping that up to 36.3 PPG in their four playoff games. Yet their defense may take a step back after losing several contributors. Edge rushers Milton Williams and Josh Sweat were both lost in free agency — and they accounted for 4.5 of the six sacks of Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Cornerback Darius Slay was released in a salary cap move, and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson was traded away. Much is now being asked of nose tackle Jordan Davis, who is the remaining early draft pick from Georgia who has yet to blossom. Linebacker Nakobe Dean will miss much of the season after a torn patellar injury in the playoffs. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games against fellow NFC East rivals/ Dallas quarterback Dan Prescott experienced another season, spending significant time on the shelf due to an injury. The hope is that Prescott stays healthy and regains his form from 2023 — and that the offense will be reignited with the acquisition of wide receiver George Pickens from Pittsburgh. Talent is not the question with Pickens — but he was a malcontent with the Steelers. And the individual deputized to keep Pickens in line is first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who is going to modernize the offense with pre-snap motions and play-action passing that previous head coach Mike McCarthy eschewed. The players were strong advocates for Schottenheimer to replace McCarthy as head coach. Their defense will not be better after trading away pass rusher Micah Parsons. But the Cowboys' defense was not very good, even with Parsons. They surrendered 355.2 Yards-Per-Game last season, which resulted in 27.5 PPG, ranking 28th and 31st in the NFL last year. Now they are on their third defensive coordinator in the last three seasons, with Matt Eberflus taking over calling plays for that unit. Without Parsons, Dallas will not rank third in the league with 52 sacks as it did last year. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 10 games played on grass, Dallas has played 8 of those games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total against fellow NFC rivals — and the Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total against NFC opponents. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (233) minus the points versus North Carolina (234). THE SITUATION: TCU (0-0) comes off a 9-4 campaign that culminated in their 34-3 victory against UL-Lafayette in the New Mexico Bowl. North Carolina (0-0) settled for a 6-7 record after losing to UConn in the Fenway Bowl by a 27-14 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU started the season 3-3 last year — but they won six of their final seven games, culminating in a dominant 34-3 victory against UL-Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl. The defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos continued to improve. In their last seven games, they held their opponents to 19 Points-Per-Game with four of those opponents failing to score more than 13 points. Six starters and 11 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return from that side of the ball. The offense has four starters back, headlined by quarterback Josh Hoover. The junior passed for 3949 yards with 27 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions while completing 66.5% of his passes. Fourth-year head coach Sonny Dykes is recruiting well, three years removed from reaching the national championship game in his first year with the program. His faith in the roster he has constructed compelled him to only bring in ten players from the transfer portal, but two of those players were added to fortify the wide receiver room for Hoover. This is a stable group — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points under Dykes. North Carolina hit the reset button. I have little doubt that if Bill Belichick wanted to develop an elite college football program at the University of North Carolina, he could do it. As the son of two parents who were college professors, he is a football lifer who considers himself first and foremost a teacher. He has forgotten more about teaching (and football) than these loudmouth critics in the Sports Hot Take Industrial Complex have ever known about this or any other subject. But how serious is he about the responsibility of this job? I initially thought this was an easy answer. But when I conducted my deep-dive on this team in mid-July, it was just after Belichick felt the need to rebut on ESPN mostly innocent comments made by New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. Maybe the year off from coaching last year changed the priorities of this 73-year-old in the twilight of his life, with nothing to prove regarding coaching? He became a media star on multiple platforms. He has a 24-year-old girlfriend. He has empowered her to become his social media agent. All the drama … it is definitely not the “Patriots way” blueprint. And the “No Days Off” mantra may still apply — just not for football. I’m sure when it is time to work on football, he is putting in 100% effort. But is the fire in the belly still there? Because if the idea was to go from NFL star to media star, one probably could not find a better group of marks than the administration at North Carolina. They gave the bag to Mack Brown at 68 years old to leave his cushy job occasionally talking about football on ESPN to return as their head coach six years ago. Brown was able to sell his “CEO” style for six years of utter mediocrity, where the Tar Heels always qualified for a bowl game, yet never won more than nine games. This football team has not enjoyed a ten-win season since 2015. If a cynic wanted to argue that, at 73 years old, Belichick is content to simply get paid and go through the motions now while promoting his Q rating, the evidence supporting this is growing. His new coaching staff remains a blend of nepotism or “Yes Men” (best exemplified by former Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens, who Belichick promoted to be his offensive coordinator even though Brown did not ever elevate him higher than the tight ends coach and run game coordinator). More red flags continue to emerge. The high school recruiting front has been meager, despite new general manager Michael Lombardo boasting about their establishment of an advanced pro-level scouting program that implements NIL better than their peers. And then perhaps the biggest tell: nearly two dozen players left the program after spring practice. Maybe old school tactics like not assigning jersey numbers until the player “earned it” was simply following the advice of his parents, who knew that it is much easier to loosen restrictions as a teacher than attempt to get stricter after initial expectations are established. But the defense lost two of their best defensive players with defensive end Beau Atkinson and linebacker Amare Campbell transferring to Ohio State and Penn State, respectively, who were both very happy to assign these players a jersey with a number. Perhaps that is the inevitable attrition still playing out in establishing a winning culture. It certainly was not there under Brown. Belichick knows defense and can teach it. They have been very active in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball. Belichick added eight new transfers on the offensive line that are big with lots of starting experience (and two All-Conference awardees). Belichick brought in an intriguing talent at quarterback after spring practice with Gio Lopez from South Alabama. The sophomore dual-threat QB passes for 2559 yards and rushed for 547 non-sack rushing yards while accounting for 25 touchdowns. But the skill position players on offense are mostly unproven in a bad look that looks suspiciously like his final teams with the Patriots. Many things have to go right to immediately build a winning team from the transfer portal. Chemistry, cohesion, culture — these are never guaranteed, even if the head coach is a future NFL Hall of Famer. Maybe Belichick already knows that — and his girlfriend has the perfect meme to post about it?

FINAL TAKE: Taking a step back from the Belichick analysis, teams with almost entirely new coaching staffs and only six returning starters from last year tend to struggle out of the gate. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread at home in 7 straight games — so Kenan Stadium has not offered much advantage lately. 10* CFB TCU-North Carolina ESPN Special with the TCU Horned Frogs (233) minus the points versus North Carolina (234). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (231) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (232). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns to action after their 14-2 season that culminated in their 24-23 loss against Ohio State in the national championship game. Miami (FL) (0-0) comes off a 10-3 season that ended in a 42-411 loss to Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: I have considered the Fighting Irish “flat-track bullies” who too often fold when facing elite competition — but I concede this is a perspective that requires re-evaluation after they reached the National Championship Game before losing a closely contested contest against Ohio State by a 24-23 score. I consider their semifinals victory against Penn State as mostly a “someone had to win the Spiderman versus Spiderman pointing meme” result — but Notre Dame did beat Georgia to reach that game. We are in a new paradigm — and in a world where the bluest of blue bloods simply do not have the same elite depth, programs like the Fighting Irish are helped. No longer is an Alabama team going to be able to bring Tua Tagovailoa off the bench in the National Championship Game to replace Jalen Hurts and rally to win that game. Great players not getting playing time are going to go get paid with NIL money and get their playing time at competitive alternatives. I happen to think the Ohio State and Michigan teams that won the last two national championships ended an era of truly elite, talented teams. They were the final exceptions of a bygone era whose foundations were laid as the transition of this sport was underway. So while the elite are dropping back to Notre Dame’s level, it must be recognized that the Fighting Irish are poised to thrive in this new era. Head coach Marcus Freeman is winning the transfer portal. He’s a great recruiter — and players choosing to play in South Bend, generally, do not want to leave. He did lose a few players in the portal in the offseason — but these were players who lost their starting jobs. And Freeman is doing a great job in targeting key players in the transfer portal to fill holes. With their rabid alumni base, the Fighting Irish NIL program is strong. The result is what appears to be the ideal situation in this new era: strong recruiting classes, high retention of those players, and then targeted but aggressive transfer portal work. After not winning a major bowl game since 1993, Notre Dame accumulated high-profile wins in both the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl by beating Georgia and Penn State. Winning big games is what this is all about. Six starters return on offense — and the biggest question will be at quarterback. I criticized Freeman for bypassing younger quarterbacks for the quick sugar high fix of limited QBs like Sam Hartman and Riley Leonard — but he is likely turning to redshirt freshman C.J. Carr to run the offense this season. The grandson of former national champion-winning head coach Lloyd Carr at Michigan, he has elite arm talent and a high football IQ. I like this move — although the loss of Leonard’s success rate with the tush-push in short yardage situations may be underrated. The Irish have a spectacular backfield of juniors Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price, along with ball catcher Aneyas Williams. The offensive line should be one of the best in the county. The emergence of wide receiver junior Jaden Greathouse in the playoffs last year, along with some portal wins, is making the relative liability of the wide receiver room against the top competition into a strength. The Notre Dame defense has consistently been quite good. They recruit very well and now bring back 12 of the 20 players who played 200 or more snaps. They lose NFL talent with defensive tackle Rylie Mills, linebacker Jack Kiser, cornerback Benjamin Morris, and safety Xavier Watts, along with captain at nose tackle Howard Cross III, all moving on — but the Irish have been able to reload on this side of the ball. Perhaps the bigger loss was defensive coordinator Al Golden, who replaced Lou Anarumo as the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. Freeman turned to Chris Ash to run his defense, who has a similar profile as Golden as a defensive coach with NFL experience, with a turn as a head coach in college. I credit Freeman for elevating this program to a level that should ensure consistent playoff berths, given their soft schedules as an independent. How will Notre Dame do against the big boys? In this new paradigm, I’m higher on their chances, yet retain a healthy skepticism of “I will believe it when I see it.” They should outclass Miami (FL). The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. And in their last 8 games on the road, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those contests. As some things change with the Hurricanes, other things frustratingly remain the same under head coach Mario Cristobal. In his fourth year with the program, he is doing a good job bringing talent into the program from both recruiting high school players and being aggressive in the transfer portal. But blown leads and game management remain significant problems. Two years ago, in their 7-6 campaign, in their four losses decided by seven points, the Miami (FL) blew a second-half lead in each contest. The failure to simply take a knee and run the clock out against Georgia Tech that season was inexcusable — and the subsequent fumble, which gave the Yellow Jackets the opportunity to win that game on a Hail Mary was a gaffe that can trigger long-term psychic damage to a team. The Hurricanes opened up last season by going 9-0. Then Miami lost on the road against Georgia Tech. At 10-1 and a berth in the ACC championship game on the line, they blew a 21-point lead at Syracuse in an upset loss that cost them a spot in the College Football Playoff. Cristobal made another controversial decision with under four minutes left in the game, trailing by seven points, to take the ball out of quarterback Cam Ward’s hand and settle for a field goal on fourth down at the 10-yard line. While the odds of success in executing a fourth-and-10 are not high, were they much worse than the chances of the Miami defense stopping the Orange’s offense, which had scored touchdowns on four of their previous five possessions to take the lead? Besides, failing on fourth down requires the defense to step up as much as cutting the deficit to four points with the field goal, albeit with Syracuse pinned back deep on their side of the field. The Hurricanes then blew another lead in a 42-41 loss to Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl (although Ward did not play in the second half of that game). Ward is gone to the NFL after leading a Miami offense that led the nation in scoring and total offense. Cristobal looked to the transfer portal as well to bring in Georgia quarterback Carson Beck for his final season. Beck bypassed the NFL to take what has been reported as a $4.2 million NIL deal — but he was not getting drafted before Day Three, so he is making more money this year by staying in school. South Beach was an attractive choice because his girlfriend played basketball for the Hurricanes —but the rumors are that the couple has since split up. Beck is also coming off elbow surgery on his throwing hand. With all this static, it is not given that he is a simple plug-and-play replacement for Ward. Decision-making was an issue last year as he threw 12 interceptions for Georgia. The wide receiver room lost their top five targets last season — it is a vastly more inexperienced room than the one Ward enjoyed. The defense continued to struggle against good teams as they surrendered 31 or more points six times. Cristobal turned to Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman to run his defense after the Golden Gophers ranked fifth in the nation in total defense — but he is their third DC in four years. Four starters are back on that side of the ball — and Cristobal added nine more players in the transfer portal, including five in the defensive secondary. Miami finally won 10 games under Cristobal -- but with big questions at wide receiver and the secondary, the likely downgrade at the quarterback position after Ward's spectacular season, and the proclivity to find ways to blow leads, it is difficult to expect an improvement on last year's results. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog under Cristobal. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games in the first half of the season in the Cristobal era.

FINAL TAKE: Heavy rain is expected at some point in this game — the latest weather report I saw calls for a heavy downpour around 9 PM ET. I think the inclement weather favors Notre Dame, which can rely on their running backs and great offensive line, along with their defense. The Hurricanes are an error-prone team — and the bad weather just adds to the chaos. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Miami (FL) ABC-TV Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (231) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (199) minus the point(s) versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (200). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (0-0) kicks off their season after an 8-5 season that ended in a 31-26 upset loss as a 4-point favorite against Sam Houston in the New Orleans Bowl. Fresno State (0-1) began their season last Saturday in a 31-7 loss at Kansas as a 13.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia Southern has reached a bowl game in three straight seasons — and head coach Clay Helton believes this is his best team yet in his fourth year with the program. The Eagles have 13 starters back, led by quarterback J.C. French IV. The junior quarterback was efficient in operating the Air Raid offensive attack — he completed 65.6% of his passes for 2831 yards last year. Helton typically gets his team to play well out of the gates. Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 13 of their 18 games in the first half of the season under his tenure — and they have covered the point spread in all six of their games in the first two weeks of the season. They also covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games on the road last year. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. Fresno State struggled on offense last week as they only managed 216 yards of offense from just 13 first downs. They got outgained by -167 net yards. The Bulldogs suffered their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark last year after losing in double overtime against Northern Illinois by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. It was a snakebitten season that started in mid-June when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down because of health reasons and was replaced by defensive coordinator Tim Skipper on an interim basis. After scoring at least 30 Points-Per-Game in six straight seasons, Fresno State’s 26.1 PPG scoring average was their lowest since 2016. In comes first-year head coach Matt Entz, who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turn around the defense at USC last year as their linebackers coach. Nine starters are back from last year’s group — and Entz has brought in more than 20 transfers, including quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who has thrown 8814 passing yards as a three-year starter at Temple and Rice. Frankly, Warner’s name recognition surpasses his productivity on the field. He only threw for 179 yards last week with two interceptions. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State does have a game under their belt — but, in practice, that is not helpful relative to point spread expectations when taking on a team that is making their season debut. The advantage of being able to scout the game tape may be more beneficial for teams like Georgia Southern in spots like this. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Georgia Southern Eagles (199) minus the point(s) versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (200). Best of luck for us —  Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (187) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (188). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns to action after winning the national championship with their 34-23 victory against Notre Dame last January in the title game. Texas (0-0) wants to avenge their 28-14 loss to the Buckeyes as a 6.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the college football playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: The Longhorns are many pundits' pick to win the national championship after getting so close the last two seasons in losses in the College Football Playoff semifinals to Washington two years ago and then to the Buckeyes in a contest that was much closer than the final score. Remember, Texas was about ready to punch it in for a late game-tying score before Jack Sawyer scooped up a fumble and returned it 99 yards for the touchdown in a game-defining moment. Fifth-year head coach Steve Sarkisian brought in the top high school class in the nation in 2025. Between his recruiting, his winning the transfer window by targeting specific talent to fill holes while retaining the vast majority of his roster, and the university’s strong commitment to its NIL program, Texas may be leading the way in how to thrive in the new competitive environment. And now they begin the Arch Manning era. Manning has dual-threat skills with mobility that is reminiscent of his grandfather, Archie, who had a long NFL career as the quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. His accuracy on deep balls brings a new dynamic to the offense that was not available the last two seasons with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. It may be very possible that Manning under center unlocks new levels of Sarkisian’s offensive genius that were held back the last two seasons. The defense lost all three starters — but Sarkisian did identify this area of need by bringing in five transfers with starting experience for the defensive line room. Perhaps the biggest question mark is the line on the other side of the ball after losing four starters on the offensive line from last year. This will be a young group — but having established chemistry and synergy with Manning by taking the second team reps with him last season should pay dividends that are not yet fully appreciated by the pundits. Sarkisian consistently has his team play well early in the season — his teams in his head coaching career have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 games in the first two weeks of the season. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread 5 of their last 6 season openers (winning all six of those games outright). They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games in the first half of the season. Texas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Buckeyes pushed all their chips in to win the National Championship last season with four stars on defense, bypassing the NFL to return for a final season. Once again, the roster is loaded with talent — but there are far more questions than answers regarding how this year’s team will fare against elite competition. With only eight starters from last year’s team back, new leaders will have to emerge to help manage adversity. The defense lost nine players to the NFL. Free safety Caleb Downs is one of the best players in the country — but the defensive line is the biggest question on that side of the ball, with depth at defensive tackle being a real concern. The offense lost senior quarterback Will Howard as well as running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to the NFL. Second-year freshman quarterback Julian Sayin most certainly has higher upside than Howard, but he is wet under the years. Led by the phenomenal sophomore Jeremiah Smith, the wide receiver room is loaded, but how quickly Sayin can take advantage of this group remains a question. The offensive line lost two starters to the NFL after being the weak link of this unit against their top competition (ask Michigan). Henderson and Judkins' innate talent out of the backfield helped neutralize this weakness in the playoffs, but Ohio State is starting over with their backfield now. What helped the Buckeyes rebound from the late-season loss to the Wolverines was their veteran coaching staff, with Chip Kelly at offensive coordinator and Jim Knowles running the defense to support all the criticism Ryan Day was receiving. Now Kelly is the OC for the Las Vegas Raiders, and Knowles defected to run the Penn State defense. Day reinstalled Brian Hartline as the offensive coordinator after being demoted back to just the tight ends coach last year. Hartline has been an assistant offensive coach here since 2017. I do like that Day is not going back to calling plays — outside of Andy Reid, all these offensive coaches are better served concentrating on running the entire team and avoiding the allure to also free-lance and call every offensive play. Deferring the play-calling to Kelly last year was prudent — and now giving those duties to Hartline is the best long-term move. But Hartline is a first-time play-caller. On the other side of the ball is now Matt Patricia. I don’t love what it says that Knowles did not want to stay with the program where he oversaw the best scoring defense and total defense in the nation. Patricia is undoubtedly a brilliant defensive mind. I even defended Bill Belichick’s decision to anoint him the offensive coordinator for New England by buying the argument that teachers teach. But Patricia has mostly been a complete failure when outside the purview of Belichick as his defensive coordinator. His time as the Detroit Lions’ head coach was a disaster, and after helping to orchestrate the ousting of defensive coordinator Sean Desai to take over the Philadelphia Eagles' defense two years ago, the result was the team hitting rock bottom in the playoffs against Tampa Bay. When the Eagles cut ties with Patricia last offseason, they went on to win the Super Bowl. I have serious reservations that Patricia can (a) nurture collegiate talent and (b) tailor his sophisticated schemes to the collegiate level. Day finally has a national title under his belt, but I am not sure he has the leadership skills to handle the challenges of two new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Losing 14 players to the NFL draft is tough for any team to overcome. However, with the new expanded playoff system, Ohio State may be an intriguing team to reconsider once the postseason begins. Right now, the market may be living off the vapors of last year’s playoff. The Buckeyes tend to be a slow-starting team relative to expectations as well. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the opening two weeks of the season — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 opening games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: There is so much turnover with the Buckeyes — a new play-caller on offense, a new defensive coordinator who lacks recent collegiate coaching experience, and a freshman quarterback. Fourteen new starters. And in the back of their minds, they know they can lose a couple of games in the regular season before stepping up in the college football playoffs — as they did last year after an early loss against Oregon, before that devastating upset loss at home to Michigan. The Longhorns have been thinking about this revenge opportunity every day in practice. They have more stability at quarterback since Manning got into a handful of games last year — and their defense is probably the best unit on the field. 10* CFB Texas-Ohio State Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (187) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (188). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (158) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (157). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (0-0) comes off a 7-6 campaign that ended in a five overtime loss against South Florida in the Hawai’i Bowl. Central Michigan (0-0) suffered their third straight losing season with a 4-8 record last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: First-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo did a fantastic job last replacing seven-year head coach Brent Brennan who took the head coaching job at Arizona. The Spartans had lost 12 starters to graduation and then another six starters in the transfer portal. The former 15-year head coach at Navy proved he had more than one trick up his sleeve by abandoning the spread triple option rushing attack for a quick-passing Run-and-Shoot and Air Raid hybrid scheme. He found the right offensive coordinator in Chris Stutzmann who had been the passing game coordinator at Texas State. San Jose State generated 321.8 passing Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking fifth in the FBS. This passing attack really took off when Walker Eget took over under center in the sixth game. The senior returns at quarterback with four other starters on offense having averaged 301 passing yards YPG in his seven starts. The defense returns 14 of the 22 players who got at least one start last season including seven players who had seven or more starts. The Spartans have registered seven-win seasons in three straight seasons for the first time since 1980-1982. Niumatalolo and this coaching staff deserve some benefit of the doubt that they can coach this group up. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored. After overseeing a 20-13 record in his first three seasons (including the shortened 2020 campaign), Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain just seemed to lose steam over the last few years. The Chippewas have a 13-23 record in the last three seasons after their 4-8 campaign last year — and that prompted McElwain to retire after six seasons. Injuries on offense did not help matters as they were down to their fourth quarterback at one point while losing their top five wide receivers to injury. In comes first-year head coach Matt Drinkall, who served as the offensive line coach at Army for the last six seasons. He was promoted to co-offensive coordinator in 2023 and enlisted to adapt the spread triple-option to a new blocking scheme after the NCAA implemented new cut-blocking rules — but his shift to a shotgun-styled attack failed, and he was demoted back to just the offensive line coach last year. How the offense will develop will be interesting, as Drinkall does not plan to go all-in on a nearly complete rushing attack like the one at Army. Former Iowa transfer Joe Labas was the initial starting quarterback last year but suffered a season-ending injury in the sixth game of the season. He completed 59% of his passes and is not very mobile — so he may not fit in Drinkall’s more comfortable schematic approaches. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. The Chippewas face challenging circumstances traveling out west for a night game on the West Coast since their body clocks will think it is 1:30 AM when this game kicks off. As it is, Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog  — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have covered the point spread in five straight games on the road against non-conference opponents from a Group of Five conference. 8* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Jose State Spartans (158) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (157). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (164) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (163). THE SITUATION: Baylor (0-0) comes off an 8-5 season that ended with a 44-31 loss against LSU in the Texas Bowl. Auburn (0-0) looks to rebound from a 5-7 season where they did not play in a bowl game for the second time in the last three years.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINT(S): Head coach Dave Aranda went into the offseason of the 2024 season on the hot seat — and the best decision he made was hiring California offensive coordinator and former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital, with the offense returning to the Air Raid but with up-tempo principles. The Bears lost four of their first six games before the offense really started to click — and they won their final six games of the regular season, with five of those victories being by double-digits. The offense generated 440.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 34.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 20th and tied for 19th in the nation — and they scored at least 31 points nine times. Senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson took over under center in their third game — and he thrived in Spavital’s system by completing 62% of his passes for 3071 yards with 28 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. The offensive line improved dramatically along the way from previous seasons. Eight starters are back from that group, including Robertson — and Aranda was active in the transfer portal to bring in more talent for the wide receiver room. Aranda is considered a defensive guru from the great job he did as the defensive coordinator for LSU in their national championship run. His defense hit rock bottom two years ago, ranking 113th and 110th by surrendering 33.3 Points-Per-Game and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The “fix” last year was for Aranda to call the defensive plays this year while also coaching the linebackers. The Baylor defense took a few steps forward last season by surrendering 386.2 total YPG (87th in the FBS) and ranking 63rd in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive ratings. Aranda replaced a few of the assistant coaches on that side of the ball. With eight players on defense with starting experience, including a couple of players added in the transfer portal, the expectation is that this group will take another step forward. Aranda usually gets his team to start the season well (despite last year’s slow start). The Bears have covered the point spread in 10 of their 15 games in the first month of the season under Aranda, including three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on turf. For the second-straight season, Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze brought in a haul of talent from both the freshman class and the transfer portal. But Freeze is fast running out of excuses after a 5-7 season that followed a 6-7 campaign in his first year with the program. It was the fourth straight losing season for this program. The Tigers did outgain their SEC opponents by +62 net Yards-Per-Game — but too often this team found ways to lose. Three of their losses were accompanied by postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76%, and 61%. On offense, the question will be at quarterback, where Freeze brought in former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. He should be an immediate upgrade over Payton Thorne, who I considered the weak link of this offense last season. Arnold’s mobility makes him a better fit for the RPO-heavy Freeze offense. Arnold played very well in leading the Sooners to an upset victory against Alabama. But he demonstrated some impatience with his decision-making in the pocket, and playing behind a porous offensive line left him skittish with his pocket awareness and internal clock by the end of the season. If those issues linger into some PTSD under pressure this year, then the Tigers may continue to struggle to finish over .500. Losing running back Jarquez Hunter to the NFL will hurt — especially since the Auburn offense ranked 115th in Finishing Drives last season. The defense must replace seven starters from last year’s group that held their opponents to 21.3 PPG. This is the Tigers’ first opening game away from Jordan-Hare Stadium since 2019 — and it is their first opener played in a hostile environment since 2003 when they opened at USC. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games in the first month of the season since Freeze took over as their head coach including both of those games played on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home, with the Total set in the 52.5 to 63 point range, including six of those last nine contests. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month is with the Baylor Bears (164) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (163). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (172) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (171). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (0-0) comes off a 5-7 season last year, missing a bowl game for the third straight season. Western Michigan (0-0) settled for a 6-7 record after losing to South Alabama in the Salute to Veterans Bowl by a 30-23 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: Second-year head coach Jonathan Smith inherited a proud program that had hit rock bottom. Previous head coach Mel Tucker was fired after four seasons, amidst a sexual harassment lawsuit (and three losing seasons in four years). The Spartans finished in 2023 4-8 while getting outgained by -133 YPG. It is important to consider that the 11-2 season in 2021, which led to Tucker getting a ten-year, $95 million contract, was the team’s only winning season in the previous five years and the only time they won more than seven games since 2017. After Tucker got dismissed, 12 players entered the transfer portal in April, leaving an already depleted roster from years of high school recruiting neglect by Tucker even worse off. Tucker lived and died relying on the portal. But the problems Smith inherited go farther back than that. The “more with less” dogma of previous head coach Mark Dantonio grew stale less than a decade ago with the Spartans falling further and further behind their conference rivals when it came to developing elite talent -- particularly at quarterback and the skill positions on offense. Furthermore, their defenses took a step back from their peak seasons in the Dantonio era. Rebuilding a healthy culture takes time. Smith is committed to patiently doing things the right way, as he previously did in building Oregon State into a contender. The Spartans did not get to a bowl game, but the quality of play was better in a 5-7 season. There are reasons for optimism. Despite the secondary losing nine players on the depth chart at one point — including three starters — the defense ranked 34th in the nation by giving up 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their opponents to -29 YPG below their season average. The unit ranked 32nd in run defense by giving up 125.1 rushing YPG. Those are Sparty’s best defensive numbers since 2019 — and with the excellent Joe Rossi as defensive coordinator, the defense should continue to improve. Five starters are back — and Smith was aggressive in the transfer portal by adding four outside linebackers and four cornerbacks. The offense needs to take a step (or two) forward after only scoring 19.3 PPG and generating 333.4 total YPG, ranking tied 123rd and 110th in the nation.  Sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles was inconsistent in his first year as a starter. The former Oregon State transfer only completed 56% of his passes in his first five games, with five touchdown passes and eight interceptions. He did improve in the final seven games by completing 61% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and only three interceptions. As Smith tries to develop homegrown talent, he was aggressive in bringing in transfers to bolster that unit. Better play from that unit will help Chiles — and with their defense, the Spartans could start becoming a bit dangerous. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the first half of the season. Smith’s teams have also covered the point spread in 15 of their 22 games at home when favored. Progress seems to be taking place for the Broncos’ head coach, Lance Taylor, in his third year with the program. But with a 6-7 record, Western Michigan did suffer their third-straight losing season — and a closer look at their victories does not offer positive context. After starting the season 1-3, the Broncos rattled off four wins in a row against the four bottom teams in the Mid-American Conference. They lost four of their final five games. In their six games against teams that ranked outside the top 100 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, they had a 5-1 record. Is the talent improving for Western Michigan under Taylor’s leadership — or are they simply getting better at being bottom-feeders? The offense returns only four starters, but Taylor did bring in two transfers from the Big Ten to bolster the offensive line, along with former Michigan blue-chipper Colt Cabana at running back. The defense continues to live and die from the transfer portal, with only three starters back and plenty of new players coming in, although most are not from FBS programs. Taylor is also on his third defensive coordinator already, after Scott Power was tapped as the next defensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Former Notre Dame analyst Chris O’Leary, who was the safeties coach for the Los Angeles Chargers last season, takes over running the defense. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games in the first month of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams outside the Mid-American Conference.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home against the Broncos. 8* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Michigan State Spartans (172) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (151) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (152). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-0) comes off a 7-6 season that culminated in a 20-15 victory against Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl. Cincinnati (0-0) lost their last five games of the season in a disappointing 5-7 campaign last year. This game is being played on a neutral field at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers finally got over the hump by becoming bowl eligible in a late November victory against Wisconsin — and after their victory in the Pinstripe Bowl, they secured their first winning season in nine years and their first bowl win since the Obama Administration in 2016. Now comes the high expectations of the third-year Matt Rhule bounce after he led both Temple and then Baylor to the conference championship games with 10-4 and 11-3 campaigns in his third year as the head coach at the programs. Getting the benefit of bowl practices will help — but the challenge to reach the Big Ten championship game is much steeper. The defense is a complete rebuild in the front seven, with the only returning starters being in the secondary — and that unit lost defensive coordinator Tony White and their defensive line coach to Florida State, where they will have the same responsibilities. Rhule promoted defensive backs coach John Butler to run the defense — he had nine years of NFL coaching experience after running the Penn State defense in 2013. After ranking in the top 18 in total defense the last two seasons, this unit may take a step back. On the other hand, this group was not as physical and aggressive last year as they were in 2023 — and Butler had the defense getting back some of their aggression in spring practice. The offense returns offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen for his first full season after he took over for the fired Marcus Satterfield after the ninth game. He drew up more quick passes with shorter routes to put freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola in a better position to succeed. The former five-star recruit was inconsistent last year and too often missed big throws — and the Cornhuskers scored more than 21 points only once in the four games when Holgorsen called plays. Rhule was more aggressive in the transfer portal by adding 18 players, which was ten more than the previous offseason. But this remains an offense that scored only 23.5 Points-Per-Game and generated 359.0 total Yards-Per-Game, ranking 103rd and 94th in the nation. There still may not be enough firepower at the skill positions to compete with the top-end teams in the loaded Big Ten. Is it telling that Nebraska lost four of their last six games? The Cornhuskers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Unders with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. The Bearcats made the four-team college football playoff four seasons ago. A year later, Luke Fickell left the program to take the head coaching job at Wisconsin. In came Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield, who had great success at Appalachian State before mixed results in four seasons with the Cardinals. Satterfield is now on the hot seat after two straight losing seasons and an 8-16 combined record. What’s the problem? Was the move to the Big 12 a big ask for this previous Group of Five heavyweight? Fickell got out of Dodge after Cincinnati’s last season in the American Athletic Conference. Or is perhaps the problem Satterfield, who had similar issues — and plenty of excuses — in his tenure at Louisville? The Bearcats opened the season by winning five of seven games — but they lost their last five games and failed to make a bowl game. They only scored 19.3 Points-Per-Game in their last seven contests. On the one hand, they did outgain their Big 12 opponents by +26 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 3-6 record in conference play. They only won one of their four games decided by seven points or less. But this is a team that is heavily dependent on the transfer portal. Losing these close games may be symptomatic of culture issues on the team — something Satterfield struggled with at Louisville. He added speed in the wide receiver room in the offseason after last year’s offense lacked explosiveness. The excuse for a defense that ranked 85th in the nation by surrendering 385.4 total Yards-Per-Game is that new defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt got started late after only getting hired in January. More transfers were trucked in during the offseason, especially in the secondary. Getting nose tackle Dontay Corleone back will make a big difference. “The Godfather” is a beast in the middle and registered 27 pressures last season and was named to the first team All-Big 12 team despite missing time due to injuries. This is Satterfield’s most talented team since arriving here — but the fundamental questions regarding his leadership abilities and this program’s ability to survive and thrive in the Big East remain unanswered. The quarterback play is also a question mark. Junior quarterback Brendan Sorsby had seven turnovers -- but he committed 13 turnover-worthy plays. He only registered one “Big-Time” throw in his last six contests. Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: While both teams return their starting quarterback from last year, both these offenses struggled in finishing drives. The Cornhuskers ranked 114th in Finishing Drives last season, while the Bearcats ranked 118th in that metric. 25* CFB ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (151) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (148) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (147). THE SITUATION: Akron (0-0) comes off a 4-8 campaign last season. Wyoming (0-0) finished 3-9 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ZIPS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been one small step forward and seemingly two steps back for head coach Joe Moorhead in his fourth year as head coach of the Zips. Akron finished 2-10 in each of the first two seasons under Moorhead, although three of their losses were in overtime in 2023, and they outgained their Mid-American opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 1-7 record. Last year, the Zips improved to 4-8 overall — and they won three games in conference play for the first time since 2017, headlined by an upset win in overtime at home against Toledo to conclude their season. Once again, a -10 net turnover margin held them back. And now they only return seven starters after losing seven players in the transfer portal to Power Four conference teams. Moorhead worked the portal hard to bring in players — there are 17 new faces on defense after the Zips returned two starters. Former Cal and NC State quarterback Ben Finley returns at quarterback after passing for 2604 yards and posting a 16:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The offensive line is improving after Moorhead made that an area of emphasis last year — they cut down their sacks allowed from 46 to 30 last season, and the room is getting better. But Akron is ineligible to play in a postseason bowl game after failing to meet NCAA standards for academic progress — so games like this take on added meaning. The Zips did end the year winning three of their last five games while scoring 26 Points-Per-Game which was almost six PPG above their season average. Akron covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games at home as an underdog, including their season-ending upset victory against Toledo. In Moorhead’s 23 games in his head coaching career when his team was playing at home, his teams covered the point spread in 9 of those games. For Wyoming, expectations were high last season for first-year head coach Jay Sawvel, who was beginning a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams, while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. I was worried that the program may have peaked in 2023 after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Sawvel thought his group could contend for the Mountain West Conference championship. That defense returned 19 of the 22 in the two-deep, including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. There was hope Evan Svoboda, wearing #17, would evoke memories of Josh Allen with the junior quarterback holding a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He had shown flashes in a close contest against Texas and then in their bowl game. But Wyoming lost their first four games of the season, and the offense opened up employing more spread and up-tempo concepts, which was a complete flop by ranking just tied for 123rd in the nation by scoring just 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The defense took a step back by surrendering 410.6 Yards-Per-Game, which was -52.8 net YPG more than in 2023 and ranked 103rd in the FBS. They also ranked 91st by giving up 28.3 PPG, which was -6.0 more PPG than the previous season. Only one starter returns on that side of the ball, with second-year defensive coordinator Aaron Bohl losing 11 of the 14 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Sawvel attempted to add length and size by bringing in 13 transfers and another three junior college players — but only five of those players come from FBS programs. The plan on offense is to return to the conservative power rushing attack of previous Cowboys teams while giving the keys to the offense to redshirt sophomore Kaden Anderson, who started three games in a row late in the season before his year ended with a concussion. Wyoming typically starts slow — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the first month of the season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have been a much better team when playing at home at War Memorial Stadium over the years — but they have lost 38 of their last 56 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. 8* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Akron Zips (148) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (308) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (307). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (0-0) comes off an 8-6 season that culminated in a 27-17 loss against James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl. Sam Houston (0-0) finished 10-3 last year after a 31-26 victory against Georgia Southern in the New Orleans Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Seventh-year head coach Tyson Helton has grown accustomed to massive roster turnover due to the transfer portal — he has led the Hilltoppers to four-straight seasons with eight or more victories. Western Kentucky has averaged 18 players lost a year to the transfer portal over the last four years; they have averaged 21 players brought in per year from the portal. For this season, Helton lost 37 players to the transfer portal, including seven players who seemingly upgraded to Power-Four conference opponents. He brought in 43 new transfers. At least Helton brought back 14 starters for last year’s team that finished 8-6. Helton reached into his bag of tricks by bringing in senior quarterback Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian, along with his offensive coordinator, Rick Bowie, this season. This formula was very successful for the Hilltoppers in 2021 when Helton brought in quarterback Bailey Zappe and offensive coordinator Zach Kittley from Houston Baptist. McIvor passed for more than 3800 yards last year with 30 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions — and he passed for 508 yards in a shootout 52-51 loss to Texas Tech. Helton’s teams usually find ways to score in Helton’s hybrid “pro-raid” offense that mixes Air Raid principles within a pro-style offense. The other side of the ball is usually the bigger challenge — and Helton had to replace defensive coordinator Tyson Summers, who took the same job at Colorado State. Helton promoted position coaches Da’von Brown and Davis Merritt to run a defense that lost its top 12 tacklers from last year. Two starters are back — and Helton added 16 transfers (four starters from FBS programs) and another three junior college players to help rebuild the defense. Helton should have his team ready to play this game — and having North Alabama on deck should help the cause. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in the first half of the season. After a 10-3 season that concluded with the program’s first bowl victory in a 31-26 win against Georgia Southern, 12-year head coach K.C. Keeler left Sam Houston to take the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason. The Bearkats turned to a former offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, as their next head coach after he endured a difficult mix of cultures as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Longo had previous success as the offensive coordinator at North Carolina, but his head coaching experience is limited. His Air Raid offense inherits five starters, including senior quarterback Hunter Watson, who accounted for 21 touchdowns last year. The defense presents a bigger challenge with six players joining defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, who all moved to North Texas — no starters are back for this unit for new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Linsday, who takes over after coaching the nickelbacks at North Carolina State since 2020. With only four defensive players on the roster after the spring transfer portal who have taken more than 110 snaps at the FBS level, this unit looks to be extremely vulnerable, even before the additional burden of having to take the field after Longo’s up-tempo offense will either score quickly or suffer an even quicker three-and-out. The Bearkats were just 3-9 two seasons ago before their seven-win turnaround was jettisoned by a perfect 6-0 record in one-possession games (second-best in the FBS), a +12 net turnover margin (tied for eighth-best in the FBS), and precious few injuries. Under new leadership, those fortunate occurrences are unlikely to continue. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Month with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (308) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (305) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (306). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (0-0) enjoyed their first double-digit win season in program history with their 11-3 mark last year that culminated in a 42-41 victory against Miami (FL) in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Kansas State (0-0) comes off a 9-4 campaign that ended with a 44-41 victory against Rutgers in the Rate Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Early games are often the best times to back Iowa State with Matt Campbell as their head coach. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the first half of the season in Campbell’s tenure. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog. They return 12 starters from last year’s team, headlined by junior quarterback Rocco Becht, who passed for 3505 yards with 25 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. The defense has six starters back from a group that defensive coordinator Jon Heacock used 21 different starters for the season. Iowa State suffered through losing 12 of 13 games by one scoring possession from the middle of 2021 through early 2023 before now winning seven of their last nine games decided by eight points or less. Head coach Matt Campbell probably wants to credit this turnaround to more difficult spring practice sessions, where he emphasized putting his players into situations of adversity. Former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard may have won a national championship for Ohio State last season, but he was likely going to be benched if he stayed for his final collegiate season in Manhattan. Avery Johnson was ranked as the number three dual-threat quarterback coming out of high school. His athleticism pushes his ceiling of potential very high. He has a good arm and is speedy with his legs. Johnson threw for 2712 passing yards, added 605 rushing yards, and accounted for 32 overall touchdowns. But the junior needs to improve as a passer this season. He completed only 58% of his passes and threw 10 interceptions. Too often, it was feast or famine for the offense. In their nine victories, Kansas State scored 37.6 Points-Per-Game — but in their four losses, they managed only 15.8 PPG. Former Utah State and Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells takes over as the offensive coordinator after sharing those duties last year. As the team’s passing game coordinator, he is expected to open up the passing game a bit more. The offensive line should remain one of the strengths of this team under head coach Chris Kleinman in his seventh year with the program. He brought in four transfers from Power Four conferences to join two returning starters from last season — but cohesion on the offensive line could be an issue, especially in games played in August. The other side of the ball is the bigger question mark overall, with only five starters back. The Wildcats must replace two defensive backs, Jacob Parrish and Marques Sigle, who got drafted into the NFL — and they also lost their sack leader, Brendan Mott. But four of the six players who registered at least six sacks last year are back, and the secondary too often got burned last year. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road against fellow Big 12 rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams — and the underdog has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 Farmageddons between these opponents. 10* CFB Iowa State-Kansas State ESPN Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (305) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (109) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (110) in the Super Bowl LIX. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (17-2) has won eight of their last nine games after their 32-29 victory against Buffalo as a 1-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game on January 26th. Philadelphia (17-3) has won five games in a row after their 55-23 win at home against Washington as a 6-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINT(S): This is the Super Bowl match I expected when the playoffs — and I felt strongly about what my Side and Total plays would be for this potential matchup before the Conference Championship Games were played. Frankly, my convictions only grew when watching both of those games — and that worried me that I was getting tunnel-visioned. Usually, I post my Super Bowl Side and Total picks by the next day since I am in the zone from so much research — and that approach has been successful. But I decided this year that it would be prudent to marinate on my Super Bowl plays to make sure I was not simply trying to confirm my prior convictions. I have listened to, read, and reconsidered the case to take Philadelphia — while watching line movement — and I just can’t get there to back and invest in the Eagles. Sure, they can win — and they played the Chiefs close two years ago in Super Bowl 57 in a 38-35 l loss. But in the hypothetical ten to 100 matchups between these two teams right now, I suspect that Kansas City wins — and covers the point spread — much more often than the implied odds from the small point spread suggest. For starters, I consider some of the season-long statistics for Philadelphia — many of which trigger empirical angles specific to the Super Bowl — to be skewed. Frankly, the Eagles have enjoyed a fairly easy schedule. Their most impressive victory was a 24-19 win at Baltimore on December 1st in a game where they got outgained by -120 yards while only managing 252 yards of offense. Philly did not play Kansas City or Buffalo or even Minnesota. They dodged a game with Detroit in both the regular season and the playoffs. Their losses were to solid but flawed playoff teams, Washington and Tampa Bay, along with Atlanta early in the season. I appreciate their defense became better when rookie Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup with their base defense shifting to a 4-2-5 nickel look. But their season-long defensive stats benefitted from two games apiece against the New York Giants and Dallas (combined 10-24 record) along with contests against cupcakes like Cleveland, Carolina, New Orleans, and Jacksonville who combined for a 17-51 record. The season-ending injury last month to Nakobe Dean should not be underestimated either since he was the jack-of-all-trades linebacker that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was featuring in his blitz packages. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will be healthier with two weeks to rest — but I am not sure he will be at full strength still regarding his mobility (outside the tush-push) given the knee injury he suffered in the playoffs. I worry that the Eagles passing game is limited — they only passed for more than 236 yards five times this season (and two of those games were in the first month of the season). What if Hurts is only a B+ passer? Sure, I don’t want to punish Philly for evolving into a run-first team when Saquon Barkley had a career year. But if Philadelphia gets into a situation where they have to pass — either because they fall behind by more double-digits (remember their scoring woes in the first quarter) or because it is late in the game — can Hurts win the game with his arm in a facet of his game that has been off going back to the second half of last season? And this raises another point: I’m not sure this Eagles squad is battle-tested. While they were 9-2 in games decided by one-scoring possession, only four of their victories were against teams who made the playoffs (Washington twice, LA Rams, Green Bay). Remember all those cupcakes they got to play? Their remaining five wins decided by eight points or less were against New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Carolina, and the New York Giants who all failed to win more than five games. I worry that after playing five straight games at home, the Eagles are playing their first game away from Lincoln Financial Field since December 22nd (a loss at Washington). Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing their last two games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games after playing two or more games in a row at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home against teams with a winning record. On the flip side, I think — somehow — this Kansas City team remains underrated by the market. Whether it is the 12-0 record in one-score games this season, the hindsight bias regarding the favorable calls from the officials they seem to always get (Michael Jordan’s Bulls had a similar phenomenon), or just the fatigue of this dynasty and all the TV commercials it leads, a common sentiment is that the Chiefs’ “luck” is due to run out. I could not disagree more. I think they are much better than their season-long statistics. In my AFC Conference Championship Game Report, I wrote: “Don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos.” Against the Bills, they scored a season-high 32 points. An underappreciated aspect of that game was that the Kansas City starters had 24 days off from their last meaningful regular season game to their opening playoff game with the Texans — and that is a ton of time for Reid to prepare his postseason game plans. Frankly, this is a different offense in 2025 than it was in 2024. The Chiefs now have wide receiver Hollywood Brown back from injury. Rookie Xavier Worthy is breaking out right in front of our eyes with 11 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs. Travis Kelce is peaking right now — and he seems to play better when his girlfriend is in the house. In the last three games of importance (not including Week 18 against Denver), he has 23 targets with 17 catches for 220 yards and two touchdowns. Don’t forget about the reliable JuJu Smith-Schuster, veteran DeAndre Hopkins, and even running back Samaje Perine in the passing game. As I wrote two weeks ago: “After dealing with injuries all season, this Kansas City offense has more skill position players at Mahomes’ disposal than at any time since Hill was not re-signed for the 2022-23 season. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs’ offensive strategy is to unleash Mahomes in the passing attack like it’s the old Tyreek Hill days.” Sure enough, Reid had Kansas City back 11 personnel with one running back and three wide receivers. Kelce only had four targets — but this offense has become “pick your poison” again for opposing defenses with all these skill position players at Reid and Mahomes’ disposal. Brown and Worthy are both threats in the deep passing game unlocks everything in the middle. Furthermore, the move of left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has stabilized the pass protection. The “underwhelming” offensive statistics that this team compiled while only losing one game in which Mahomes started are simply garbage data now in 2025. And don’t forget that the Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls because of their defense which remains elite (and might be the better unit in this game). Like the New England Patriots with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and even the Seattle Seahawks with Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson (where Carroll just wanted to be in a close game going into the fourth quarter before he “Let Russ Cook” in the passing game and with his legs), winning close games is the darn formula for success for this Kansas City dynasty rather than a function of simplistic “good luck.” They win these games because they don’t make mistakes and beat themselves. They had not committed a turnover in eight straight games before losing a fumble against the Bills. Mahomes waits until “gotta have it” moments to move the ball with his legs. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and Reid may end up being the best head coach in the history of the NFL. Coaching matters in games like this. I like Fangio, but he’s not better than Spags. And, by the way, this Chiefs’ offense has spent two years adapting to the Fangio-inspired two-high safety shell looks that initially frustrated Mahomes after Hill left the team. We’ll see how offensive coordinator Kellen Moore does as the likely next head coach for New Orleans. Let’s just say it’s "advantage Kansas City" in terms of offensive coaching. Head coach Nick Sirianni deserves credit for reaching the Super Bowl for the second time in three years — but he’s looking up at Reid. I considered Buffalo in a better position to dethrone the Chiefs two weeks ago: when compared to the Eagles, the Bills were more battle-tested, had come closer to climbing the mountain, and Josh Allen is the better quarterback versus Hurts. Maybe Barkley is the difference-maker for Philly — but scheming winning defensive plays in key moments of big games like five previous Super Bowl victories (two as the defensive coordinator for the NY Giants) is what Spaguolo does.

FINAL TAKE: We bet numbers rather than teams — but the opportunity to back Kansas City when not laying a field goal or more is darn near irresistible (and I still waited almost two weeks). With this team on the cusp of making NFL history by being the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, I am not going against Mahomes when the point spread is so small. Mahomes has a 30-4 straight-up record as a starter when playing with extra rest. Mahomes has a 16-2 straight-up record at home or at a neutral site in January and February. In games when the Chiefs are an underdog or favored by no more than a field goal, Mahomes has a 28-9-1 straight-up record. In his 8 games in the postseason when Kansas City is listed in the +/- 2.5-point range, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to the win and point spread cover in all 8 contests. Lastly, the Chiefs have covered the point spread 50 of their 73 games in Reid’s tenure when listed in the +/- 3-point range including 16 in those last 21 circumstances. I think the motivation to three-peat is sky-high for this team — it’s why they have lost only one game this season when the starters played. It’s legacy time — and Reid and Spags have saved many of their best tricks for this moment. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (109) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110) in the Super Bowl LIX. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (17-2) has won eight of their last nine games after their 32-29 victory against Buffalo as a 1-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game on January 26th. Philadelphia (17-3) has won five games in a row after their 55-23 win at home against Washington as a 6-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: What did the four teams that reached the Conference Championship Games all have in common? Washington, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Kansas City were the top four teams in the NFL in fourth-down success rate as each of them converting on at least 70% of their fourth-down attempts. The Chiefs and the Eagles are not shy about going for it on fourth down — and I expect both head coaches to be very aggressive in this game. This aggressiveness should result in fewer punts with both offenses likely to generate points on each of their drives. However, the flip side of this equation is that the occasional failure to convert on fourth down could create short fields for their opponent. Philadelphia gained 459 yards of offense against the Commanders despite quarterback Jalen Hurts being less than 100 percent with the knee injury he suffered the previous week against Green Bay. I worried that his passes would sail high with his front left leg not completely stable. Instead, he completed 20 of 38 passes for 246 yards. With two weeks of rest and recovery, he should be closer to full health. The Eagles have played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total after a victory by two or more touchdowns. They have played 16 of their last 27 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC. In regards to Kansas City, we were on the Over in the AFC Championship Game. In that Report, I wrote: “Don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos.” Against the Bills, they scored a season-high 32 points with the offense as healthy as they have been all season. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And while the Eagles hold their opponents to 5.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are not allowing more than 5.7 YPA. Philadelphia is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Part of the dynamic in Kansas City’s 12-0 record in one-score games this season is they score just enough points to outlast their opponent. Against a healthy Eagles offense that scored 35 points against them in the Super Bowl two years ago, I suspect that head coach Andy Reid will conclude that it will take at least 30 points to win this game — and that will impact the game script (just like it did in the AFC Championship Game against the Bills). In Reid’s head coaching career in the playoffs when his team was the number one seed and facing a number two seed (like against Buffalo two weeks ago), 4 of those 5 playoff games finished Over the Total — including all three of those games with the Chiefs. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-4) won for the fifth time in their last six games after their 27-25 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (16-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-14 win against Houston as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I think this is another playoff shootout between these two heavyweights where both quarterbacks will throwing haymakers and scoring touchdowns by the fourth quarter — and there is very good evidence that this kind of games go Over in conference championship games in my Final Take. This is the fourth playoff showdown between these two teams in the Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes saga — and the first three games saw 62, 78, and 51 combined points scored. These two teams did play on November 17th in the regular season with Buffalo winning by a 31-20 score. In head coach Andy Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, his teams have played 11 of their 16 opportunities to exact same-season revenge Over the Total. The Bills are going to get their points again. They are scoring 30.7 Points-Per-Game this season while reaching the 30-point threshold 13 times and the 27-point threshold 14 times. They have scored 28.3 PPG in the four playoff games with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. The Chiefs allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and the Bills have played 14 of their last 18 games away from home against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of their passes. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Overs away from home against teams winning 75% or more of their games. An underappreciated aspect of this game is that the Kansas City starters had 24 days off from their last meaningful regular season game to last week’s playoff game with the Texans — and that is a ton of time for Reid to prepare his playoff game plans. The Chiefs did not yet have wide receiver Hollywood Brown back from injury in the first meeting between these teams. They gained 5.0 Yards-Per-Play in that game while surrendering 5.2 YPP to the Bills — but the difference was Buffalo had 72 plays from scrimmage while KC only had 52 plays from scrimmage. That ain’t happening again. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs’ offensive strategy is to unleash Mahomes in the passing attack like it’s the old Tyreek Hill days — and, at the very least, that produces a game script friendly to the Over. After dealing with injuries all season, this Kansas City offense has more skill position players at Mahomes’ disposal than at any time since Hill was not re-signed for the 2022-23 season. The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls because of their defense — but now they have rookie Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brown added to the mix from last season to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Brown and Worthy are deep threats that open up the middle of the field. Kelce is peaking right now — and he’s got his girlfriend in the house against — in the last two games of importance (not including Week 18 against Denver), he has 19 targets with 15 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The move of left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has stabilized the pass protection — but it has impacted the Chiefs’ inside rushing attack. Running back Isiah Pacheco generates 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry with Thuney at left guard — but at left tackle, Pacheco is only generating 2.8 YPC. Reid knows those numbers — and he knows that the Bills pass defense is vulnerable. Detroit passed for 473 yards against Buffalo. The Los Angeles Rams passed for 320. Houston passed for 331 yards. The Ravens passed for 240 yards en route to the 416 yards they gained last week. The Bills have surrendered 31.7 PPG against the six playoff teams they have played this season. To compound matters, Buffalo free safety Taylor Rapp is out for this game — and cornerback Christian Benford is questionable since he needs to pass the concussion protocol before the game (I assume he plays — but, whoah, if he is out, too). Reid is going to attack this vulnerable and injured secondary. And don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. That’s Over country. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos. If they needed to score more points in those games, they would have. The Chiefs have had three games at home this season with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. All three contests went Over: 27-20 versus Baltimore; 26-25 versus Cincinnati; 30-24 versus Tampa Bay. Those games seem similar to this one — albeit with Kansas City probably needing to score even more points to survive and advance.

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these heavyweights are going down without a fight. Reid has played four games in his coaching career where his team was the number one seed playing the number two seed in a conference championship game — and the Over is 3-1 in those two games with a 2-0 mark with the Chiefs. The Bills have played 5 of their 8 playoff games Over the Total as a number two seed (never the top seed) under head coach Sean McDermott. Here’s the kicker: in the last 19 Conference Championship Games between the top two seeds, the Over is 13-5-1. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (104) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (103). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-14 win against Houston as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (15-4) won for the fifth time in their last six games after their 27-25 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I was high on this Bills team in the preseason since I thought the tactical decision to ask quarterback Josh Allen to do a little less by running the ball more would reap dividends on both sides of the ball. I just think it is too much to ask to beat a great Ravens team and then follow that up by dethroning the two-time defending champions in Arrowhead Stadium. They played nearly a perfect game when it comes to avoiding mistakes — but they did not take many chances either. But Buffalo only gained 273 yards last week — and they got outgained by -43 net yards. They benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road against fellow AFC rivals. The Chiefs stay at home in what is a very advantageous situational edge. An underappreciated aspect of this game is that the Kansas City starters had 24 days off from their last meaningful regular season game to last week’s playoff game with the Texans — and that is a ton of time for Reid to prepare his playoff game plans. The Chiefs did not yet have wide receiver Hollywood Brown back from injury in the first meeting between these teams. They gained 5.0 Yards-Per-Play in that game while surrendering 5.2 YPP to the Bills — but the difference was Buffalo had 72 plays from scrimmage while KC only had 52 plays from scrimmage. That ain’t happening again. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs’ offensive strategy is to unleash Mahomes in the passing attack like it’s the old Tyreek Hill days. After dealing with injuries all season, this Kansas City offense has more skill position players at Mahomes’ disposal than at any time since Hill was not re-signed for the 2022-23 season. The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls because of their defense — but now they have rookie Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brown added to the mix from last season to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Brown and Worthy are deep threats that open up the middle of the field. Kelce is peaking right now — and he’s got his girlfriend in the house against — in the last two games of importance (not including Week 18 against Denver), he has 19 targets with 15 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The move of left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has stabilized the pass protection — and the Bills pass defense is vulnerable. Detroit passed for 473 yards against Buffalo. The Los Angeles Rams passed for 320. Houston passed for 331 yards. The Ravens passed for 240 yards en route to the 416 yards they gained last week. The Bills have surrendered 31.7 PPG against the six playoff teams they have played this season. To compound matters, Buffalo free safety Taylor Rapp is out for this game — and cornerback Christian Benford is questionable since he needs to pass the concussion protocol before the game (I assume he plays — but, whoah, if he is out, too). Reid is going to attack this vulnerable and injured secondary. And don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos. The talk all week in the media about the favorable officiating they seem to always get will probably just add another chip on their shoulder. Kansas City is not 11-0 in one-score games this season after winning the last two Super Bowls because of the referees. They win these games because they don’t make mistakes and beat themselves. They have not committed a turnover in eight straight games. Mahomes waits until “gotta have it” moments to move the ball with his legs. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and Reid may end up being the best head coach in the history of the NFL (and he got an extra day of rest and prep for this game — and home teams in the Conference Championship Game who get the extra day of rest versus their opponent are on a 20-7 straight-up run). The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.  

FINAL TAKE: If this game was being played in Buffalo, then perhaps I would conclude that this is finally their time to reach the Super Bowl. But with this team on the cusp of making NFL history by being the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, I am not going against Mahomes when the point spread is so small. Mahomes has a 29-4 straight-up record as a starter when playing with extra rest. When playing with same-season revenge as an underdog or a favorite of up to a field goal, Mahomes’ Chiefs have covered the point spread in 9 of their 12 games. When playing at home past November 1st with the temperature no higher than 40 degrees, Mahomes has a 23-2 straight-up record — and when the temperature is no higher than 25 degrees, Kansas City has a 9-1 straight-up record with 7-point spread covers with Mahomes under center. Mahomes has a 15-2 straight-up record at home or at a neutral site in January and February. In games when the Chiefs are an underdog or favored by no more than a field goal, Mahomes has a 27-9-1 straight-up record. Lastly, in his seven games in the postseason when Kansas City is listed in the +/- 2.5-point range, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to the win and point spread cover in all 7 contests. I think the motivation to three-peat is sky-high for this team — it’s why they have lost only one game this season when the starters played. It’s legacy time. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Kansas City Chiefs (104) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (103). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (14-5) has won seven straight contests after their 45-31 upset win at Detroit as an 8-point underdog last Saturday. Philadelphia (16-3) has won four games in a row as well as 14 of their last 15 contests after their 28-22 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders pulled off their second-straight upset victory in the postseason by following up their win at Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round with their second-straight upset win at Detroit. Head coach Dan Quinn deserves a ton of credit for learning from some mistakes in his Super Bowl run as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. He has this team believing they can do anything. And rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is amazing. But it’s not as if this team was dominating their opponents before stunning the Lions. Before their win last week, Daniels passed for no more than 196 yards in four of those five games — so it’s not like he has been dominant statistically from week-to-week. They only scored 23 points in each of their previous two games against the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas. The Commanders offense was red hot last week against an injury-riddled Detroit defense — but perhaps facing a familiar opponent that has already played them twice in the last ten weeks is the worst-case scenario, especially with a rookie quarterback. As it is, Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games on the road after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Philadelphia has a big edge in this third meeting with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio matching wits with Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury deserves plenty of credit for helping to guide Daniels’ success. And he has made some adjustments in the second half that have paid dividends — such as (finally) using wide receiver Terry McLaurin in motion and designing some empty set formations for Daniels in designed running plays. But let’s just say Kingsbury can be slow in making these adjustments. I will note that Kingsbury benefited from the Thursday mini-bye after the first time these two teams play for Thursday Night Football on November 14th before their actual bye week took play in early December before the rematch. I question Kingsbury’s ability to make effective adjustments on the fly. Fangio is a veteran Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator — and he has the advantage of making the next move to Kingsbury’s adjustments. Fangio blitzed more in the rematch — and the Eagles' 42.4% pressure rate was the fourth-highest the Commanders endured all season. The weather is not doing Washington any favors with the cold temperatures not helping the Daniels’ passing attack (after playing a game indoors and in Tampa Bay the last two weeks). The loss of starting right guard Sam Cosmi complicates things for Kingsbury while giving Fangio more options to attack the Commanders' offensive line that tied for 25th in the league by giving up 55 sacks. Washington may have to double-team defensive tackle Jalen Carter even more after doubling in 53 snaps in the first two meetings — but that takes away a player elsewhere for them and creates more opportunities for Fangio to exploit. I suspect Fangio is going to away McLaurin in the passing game and bank on wide receiver Dyami Brown not being able to beat them down the field. Brown has caught 11 balls for 187 yards in the two playoff games — but cornerbacks Darius Slay and Quinton Mitchell are significant upgrades in talent he now faces. Fangio rarely spies mobile quarterbacks — but his zone scheme will keep Daniels' rushing threat into account. He is the architect of two-high safety shell concepts that (briefly) frustrated Patrick Mahomes in his first season without wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Look for Fangio to dare Daniels to dink-and-dunk him to death — and not make a mistake in far-from-ideal conditions against a defense that has forced 11 turnovers in their last four games. Washington may still move the ball — but the drives will be long and burn time off the clock. The Commanders will likely play plenty of eight defenders in the box to slow down running back Saquon Barkley and force quarterback Jalen Hurts playing through injuries to beat them himself. The Eagles have only passed for 186 yards in their two playoff games -- and with wide receiver A.J. Brown seemingly in a rut as he battles through a knee injury, they may stick to just feeding Barkley the ball and hope he busts for a big game while attempting to wear down the Washington defensive front. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.

FINAL TAKE: Going back to his previous tenure as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Quinn’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Eagles have played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total in January including 5 of their 7 playoff games with Nick Sirianni as their head coach. 10* NFL Sunday Daily O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (102) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (101). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (16-3) has won four games in a row as well as 14 of their last 15 contests after their 28-22 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (14-5) has won seven straight contests after their 45-31 upset win at Detroit as an 8-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Commanders pulled off their second-straight upset victory in the postseason by following up their win at Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round with their second-straight upset win at Detroit. Head coach Dan Quinn deserves a ton of credit for learning from some mistakes in his Super Bowl run as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. He has this team believing they can do anything. And rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is amazing. But it’s not as if this team was dominating their opponents before stunning the Lions. Before their win last week, their previous five victories had all been by just one scoring possession — and New Orleans, Atlanta, and Dallas failed to make the playoffs. Daniels passed for no more than 196 yards in four of those five games — so it’s not like he has been dominant statistically from week-to-week. And while I endorsed and invested in Detroit last week (despite my being skeptical of their Super Bowl chances), I lowered my rating of the play when concluding that the Lions may be ripe for the upset after putting up so many regular season banners like avenging their losses to Dallas and San Francisco (and risking injury by playing the starters) against losing teams this season. Let’s remember that Washington was outgained by -40 net yards after giving up a whopping 521 total yards of offense last week. The +5 net turnover margin was overwhelming. Now they face an Eagles team that has not turned the ball over in four straight games. The Commanders are red hot — but perhaps facing a familiar opponent that has already played them twice in the last ten weeks is the worst-case scenario, especially with a rookie quarterback. Philadelphia has a big edge in this third meeting with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio matching wits with Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury deserves plenty of credit for helping to guide Daniels’ success. And he has made some adjustments in the second half that have paid dividends — such as (finally) using wide receiver Terry McLaurin in motion and designing some empty set formations for Daniels in designed running plays. But let’s just say Kingsbury can be slow in making these adjustments (Who am I to talk? It took me five days to finally get this Report done from the beginning of the week. Maybe we are both simply “methodical”?). I will note that Kingsbury benefited from the Thursday mini-bye after the first time these two teams play for Thursday Night Football on November 14th before their actual bye week took play in early December before the rematch. I question Kingsbury’s ability to make effective adjustments on the fly. Fangio is a veteran Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator — and he has the advantage of making the next move to Kingsbury’s adjustments. Fangio blitzed more in the rematch — and the Eagles' 42.4% pressure rate was the fourth-highest the Commanders endured all season. The weather is not doing Washington any favors with the cold temperatures not helping the Daniels’ passing attack (after playing a game indoors and in Tampa Bay the last two weeks). The loss of starting right guard Sam Cosmi complicates things for Kingsbury while giving Fangio more options to attack the Commanders' offensive line that tied for 25th in the league by giving up 55 sacks. Washington may have to double-team defensive tackle Jalen Carter even more after doubling in 53 snaps in the first two meetings — but that takes away a player elsewhere for them and creates more opportunities for Fangio to exploit. Don’t be surprised if the Commanders suffer an emotional letdown this week amidst the challenge of being on the road for the fourth straight game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games on the road this season after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. I suspect Fangio is going to take away McLaurin in the passing game and bank on wide receiver Dyami Brown not being able to beat them down the field. Brown has caught 11 balls for 187 yards in the the two playoff games — but cornerbacks Darius Slay and Quinton Mitchell are significant upgrades in talent he now faces. Fangio rarely spies mobile quarterbacks — but his zone scheme will keep Daniels' rushing threat into account. He is the architect of two-high safety shell concepts that (briefly) frustrated Patrick Mahomes in his first season without wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Look for Fangio to dare Daniels to dink-and-dunk him to death — and not make a mistake in far-from-ideal conditions against a defense that has forced 11 turnovers in their last four games. The Commanders will likely play plenty of eight defenders in the box to slow down running back Saquon Barkley and force quarterback Jalen Hurts playing through injuries to beat them himself. But maybe not — Barkley ranked fifth in the NFL by averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry against eight-men boxes. Philly’s sophisticated blocking techniques along with the threat Hurts presents with his legs neutralizes much of the tactical benefit of loading the box. Barkley rushed for 296 yards on 55 carries with four rushing touchdowns in the first two meetings. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games after winning at home in their last game. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games at home when favored by up to seven points. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC East rivals, they have covered the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season contests with Philly winning the opening game by a 26-18 score before the Commanders got revenge in the rematch on December 22nd by a 36-33 score as a 4-point underdog. Washington trailed by 14 points in that became conducted another fourth quarter rally to steal that game. The third quarter ejection of cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson did play a role in that outcome as the Philadelphia pass defense blew several pass coverages late in that game. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge. 25* NFC Game of the Year is with the Philadelphia Eagles (102) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (13-2) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 28-14 win against Texas in the College Football Semifinals as a 4.5-point favorite on January 10th. Notre Dame (14-1) has won 13 games in a row after their 27-24 upset win against Penn State as a 1-point underdog on January 9th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish held the Nittany Lions to just 339 yards last week. They have a sound fundamental defense with an outstanding secondary that limited their opponents to 301.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulting in only 14.3 Points-Per-Game. They have held their three playoff opponents to 304.3 total YPG which has resulted in just 17.0 PPG. Overall, they ranked fifth in the nation in SP+ defense according to the metrics of ESPN’s Bill Connelly. They are particularly tough on third down where they hold their opponents to under a 30% conversion rate — and Georgia and Penn State only converted 5 of their 23 third downs (21.7%) in their last two games. This is an area of vulnerability for the Buckeyes who are dependent on quarterback Will Howard’s legs to move the football on key downs. When Ohio State does not need more than six yards and his scrambling is still a legitimate threat, the Buckeyes are converting 50% of those plays. But when it is third-and-seven or more yards, the Buckeyes are converting only 22.4% of those plays. Head coach Marcus Freeman is going to attempt to slow this game to a stall. They rank 41st in run rate as it is — so the clock will keep moving then they have the ball. In their three playoff games, the Irish have held the ball for just under 32:30 minutes per contest. The Fighting Irish lacks wide receivers who can separate — and this lack of explosiveness and a reliable number one option allows defenses to play their strong safety in the box. Leonard is not a dynamic passer either with accuracy issues and not a particularly strong arm. He is more of a running threat — but a spy can address that. He has passed for only 514 passing yards in the three playoff games. The best unit in this game is the Ohio State defense. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago after generating 496 total yards from 7.3 YPP in their earlier meeting. The Buckeyes' pass rush has been ferocious in the postseason led by defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Knowles' decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss to the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field — and Downs will be given the spy responsibilities on Leonard to prevent him from big gains from his legs. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. They hold their opponents to just under 23 points below their season scoring average. A limited offense is not going to score on an elite defense like this — especially given Irish running back Jeremiah Love’s knee injury leaving him far from 100% and fellow sophomore Jadarian Price’s struggles to take over as the lead back. The Buckeyes’ Red Zone defense is particularly stout with his high-profile goal-line stands this season against Penn State and Texas. They lead the nation by limiting their opponents to just 15 touchdowns in their 36 trips inside their 20-yard line. The Irish do not have the same type of weapons in the passing game — whether it be wide receivers or tight ends — to offer diversity in these “red area” plays to quote Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and those others in the Patriots learning tree. As it is, Ohio State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame needs to play a third-straight lower-scoring game against Ohio State to keep this one close — and they do rank second in the nation by only giving up 14.3 PPG. The last two games between these two teams since 2021 saw 31 combined points scored in both contests. The Buckeyes have played 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field as a favorite Under the Total. 10* CFB Ohio State-Notre Dame O/U ESPN Special with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (13-2) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 28-14 win against Texas in the College Football Semifinals as a 4.5-point favorite on January 10th. Notre Dame (14-1) has won 13 games in a row after their 27-24 upset win against Penn State as a 1-point underdog on January 9th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: On paper, there is a talent mismatch between these two teams. Ohio State has 15 players on their roster who are graded as a five-star recruit coming out of high school. Notre Dame has only one five-star recruit— and injuries all season have diluted their ideal talent base for this ultimate game. And I remain steadfast that this Fighting Irish team reached this championship game because of a favorable schedule. In my deep dive on them in the preseason, I observed that the closest thing to a signature victory in the first two seasons under head coach Marcus Freeman was either a victory against a mediocre Clemson team two seasons ago or a win against a mediocre USC team last year. They beat another mediocre Texas A&M team to begin the season before getting upset by Northern Illinois. Granted they then went on to beat all the service academy and second-tier ACC opponents on their schedule. They beat USC again — but surrendering 360 passing yards to a former UNLV quarterback who began the season as a second-stringer raises serious doubt about the quality of their pass defense. In the playoffs, they overwhelmed an Indiana team that also benefited from a soft schedule. Then the Irish beat Georgia in what is now the top victory in the Freeman era — but that Bulldogs team did not have any first-team All-Americans in what was the least threatening roster head coach Kirby Smart has had in his tenure there perhaps ever. Georgia also had a sophomore quarterback make his first career start in that game — and yet except for a 54-second span to end the half and start the second half when Notre Dame scored 17 unanswered points, that game was even. And then in the Spiderman Social Media Meme Bowl against Penn State (I consider both programs to be mirror images of each other), somebody had to win — and the unity and cohesion that Freeman has brought to his team was just enough to overcome the Nittany Lions finding ways to lose big games under head coach James Franklin. In this instance, it was the luck of the Irish that led to Penn State quarterback Drew Allar’s bad interception late in that game on a potential game-winning drive which gave Freeman’s team the ball almost already in field goal position. Sorry, I just don’t give much credit for salvaging a victory against Penn State after trying to give that game away in the fourth quarter themselves — and due to quarterback Riley Leonard throwing two interceptions, it was the first time since the upset loss to Northern Illinois when Notre Dame lost the turnover battle. Can the Irish win this game without winning the turnover battle? The Buckeyes have only five turnovers in their last six games — and two of those giveaways were against Michigan. So perhaps the deeper question is: can Notre Dame replicate the Wolverines' formula for success? These two teams are now playing each other for the third time in three straight seasons. Ohio State won at home by a 21-10 score in 2022 before pulling out a 17-14 win in South Bend last season. Three points from those games. First, the Fighting Irish scored only 24 combined points in those two games (more on that below) Second, both were played in September when Buckeyes’ head coach Ryan Day was still keeping his playbook limited. Third, after former Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz called out Day’s team for being too soft, Day became obsessed with proving how tough he/his team was — and that dictated a run-heavy game script. Day would after the game call out the septuagenarian for daring to challenge the toughness of his group (something only insecure people feel the need to do). Day’s demons would later get the best of him this season as his obsession to prove to the world how tough his team/he is played right into Michigan’s hands in that upset loss in late November. Day was made into a laughingstock after that loss — but the playoffs are his redemption tour. If there is one thing he is not going to do in this game, it is not getting his uber-talented wide receivers involved enough. Relying on pass-first game plans in the playoffs, the Buckeyes raced out to a 21-0 first quarter lead against Tennessee, a 34-8 halftime against Oregon, and then a 7-0 lead and a 14-7 lead against the Longhorns. Notre Dame cannot afford to fall behind by more than one score because they are very limited in the passing game. The Fighting Irish lacks wide receivers who can separate — and this lack of explosiveness and a reliable number one option allows defenses to play their strong safety in the box. Leonard is not a dynamic passer either with accuracy issues and not a particularly strong arm. He is more of a running threat — but a spy can address that. He has passed for only 514 passing yards in the three playoff games. The best unit in this game is the Ohio State defense. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago after generating 496 total yards from 7.3 YPP in their earlier meeting. The Buckeyes' pass rush has been ferocious in the postseason led by defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Knowles' decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss to the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field — and Downs will be given the spy responsibilities on Leonard to prevent him from big gains from his legs. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. They hold their opponents to just under 23 points below their season scoring average. A limited offense is not going to score on an elite defense like this — especially given Irish running back Jeremiah Love’s knee injury leaving him far from 100% and fellow sophomore Jadarian Price’s struggles to take over as the lead back. The last 16 teams to win the National Championship Game who failed to score at least 21 points have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of those games. Ohio State has scored at least 31 points in 11 of their 15 games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Fighting Irish are outscoring their opponents by +22.7 Points-Per-Game — but the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame needs to play a third-straight lower-scoring game against Ohio State to keep this one close — and they do rank second in the nation by only giving up 14.3 PPG. But the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games the last three seasons against teams who do not allow more than 17.0 PPG (and two of those games were against Michigan). 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (393) and the Buffalo Bills (394). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-5) has won five games in a row after their 28-14 win against Pittsburgh as a 9.5-point favorite in their wildcard playoff game last Saturday. Buffalo (14-4) has won four of their last five games after their 31-7 win against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite in the wildcard playoff round last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills generated 471 yards of offense in their victory against the Broncos last week. Buffalo has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. And in their last 11 games at home after scoring 30 or more points, they have played 8 of these games Over the Total. They have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total where they are scoring 33.9 Points-Per-Game this season. Against teams with a winning percentage of .667 or higher, the Bills are averaging 31.8 PPG — and that scoring average rises to 34.2 PPG if they are playing at home. Buffalo led the NFL by scoring at least 30 points in 13 games in the regular season. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have covered the point spread in five straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They are generating 427.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 30.3 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and the Bills have played 4 of their last games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (393) and the Buffalo Bills (394). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (394) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (393). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (14-4) has won four of their last five games after their 31-7 win against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite in the wildcard playoff round last Sunday. Baltimore (13-5) has won five games in a row after their 28-14 win against Pittsburgh as a 9.5-point favorite in their wildcard playoff game last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Because this is a heavyweight fight, I went back to my original notes from my preseason deep-dives on both teams. The conventional wisdom was this was a rebuilding year for Buffalo — but I was bullish on them. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applauded head coach Sean McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey midseason last year. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons — and this sentiment was validated by him throwing only six picks so far this season which is the lowest of his career. I thought a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world — and after they acquired Amari Cooper from Cleveland midseason, the wide receiver room is more than fine. Allen threw 96 fewer passes in the regular season compared to last year — but he raised his Yards-Per-Attempt mark from 7.4 to 7.7 which is the second-highest clip in his career. Buffalo led the NFL in the regular season with the fewest giveaways and the fewest sacks allowed — exactly what McDermott was hoping to achieve with his stylistic changes. Getting this game at home at Highmark Stadium is huge — and they will feel very comfortable with the temperatures dropping into the teens with a chance of snow flurries. The Bills were 9-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of +17.5 Points-Per-Game. They score 33.9 PPG at home — and their defense really tightens up on their home field where they are holding their guests to just 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.4 PPG. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams with a winning record. Against teams with a winning percentage of .667 or higher, the Bills are averaging 31.8 PPG — and that scoring average rises to 34.2 PPG if they are playing at home. Buffalo led the NFL by scoring at least 30 points in 13 games in the regular season. They are a confident team that beat both number-one seeds, Kansas City and Detroit, earlier in the year. And I think they are a step or two closer to winning a Super Bowl than the Ravens are. In the last three seasons, they have lost two coin-flip games with the Chiefs — the epic overtime game with the Patrick Mahomes 13-second drive and then a heartbreaking 27-24 loss at home last year. If the Bills win those games, they may have won both Super Bowls. In his 11 playoff games in his career, Allen has a 103.2 Passer Rating — he has completed 65.3% of his passes with 28 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. And while the Ravens only give up 20.8 PPG this season, Allen has a 27-12-1 ATS in his 40 games in his career against teams who are not allowing more than 21.0 PPG. Lamar Jackson has lost four of his seven starts in the postseason — and all those victories were in their opening game in the playoffs against Tennessee in 2021, Houston last year, and then against the Steelers last week. Their 17-10 loss at home against Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game was the first time in the Jackson era that they lost to the eventual Super Bowl winner. That game was not as close as the final score appeared. The game plan was a mess with the Ravens’ running backs only carrying the ball eight times. Jackson struggled in the passing game with the goal seeming to prove that he could win playoff games with his arm. In his seven career playoffs starts, he is completing only 59.3% of his passes with 11 touchdowns but nine giveaways and an 81.2 Passer Rating. He has admitted that he gets too amped up in these big playoff games which makes him a work in progress — and that is a net disadvantage versus where Allen is right now. Baltimore signed running back Derrick Henry in the offseason to address those mistakes against Kansas City — and they will feed Henry tonight. But the Bills' run defense is underrated — they rank sixth in the league in Opponent Expected Points Added per rushing attempt. Buffalo also held their last three opponents to 271.3 total YPG and 14.7 PPG. Jackson is not likely to have wide receiver Zay Flowers tonight with him being downgraded to doubtful with his knee injury. The Bills defense has struggled against teams like Detroit and the LA Rams with multiple wide receiver threats — so this injury really hurts. Maybe the presence of Henry is the game-changer that solves Jackson’s postseason struggles — but this remains an unknown which really worries me when they are now laying the points. The Ravens have lost three of their last four games on the road against teams winning 75% or more of their games. They played their last two games at home — but they have lost three of their last four games on the road after a two-game home stand. They have lost five of their last seven games in January. And while I know their defense has been night and day after they added Dean Pees as a senior analyst and then moved Kyle Hamilton to free safety, their number one ranking in Opponent EPA allowed since Week 11 was against a schedule that included Pittsburgh (twice), the LA Chargers, Houston, Cleveland, and the New York Giants — not exactly the best offenses in the league. In the 46 games the Bills have played under McDermott when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Buffalo has covered the point spread 29 times including five of their last seven.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played early on the season on September 29th for Sunday Night Football in a game the Ravens got off to a fast start and dominated in a 35-10 victory as a 2.5-point favorite. The Bills were down three defensive starters in that game with defensive end A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Matt Milano, and nickelback Taron Johnson all out for that game. Having all three players in this rematch will help slow down Henry. Allen had five of his passes dropped in that game as well — and it was before the team traded for Cooper to give the offense a true X receiver. Buffalo has won nine of their last 13 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (394) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (391) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (392). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 27-9 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) has won three games in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests after their 22-10 victory against Green Bay as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only gained 292 yards of offense last week despite the easy victory. Their pass rush sacked Sam Darnold nine times — and they held the Vikings to just 269 yards. Minnesota averaged a mere 3.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. In the last six weeks of the regular season, their defense ranked 11th in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. Snow is expected this afternoon — and that is not ideal for the veteran Matthew Stafford who played indoors for most of his games when playing with Detroit. But Stafford won’t mind the cold weather. In his 12 career games played in temperates no higher than 40 degrees, he has averaged 265.3 passing Yards-Per-Game from completing 63.1% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions — and he has a 96.6 Quarterback Rating in those games. The Rams have covered the point spread in 12 of their 19 games after a straight-up win. They stay on the road after playing last week’s game in Glendale, Arizona — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia only gained 290 yards last week in their win against the Packers. Jalen Hurts has been in a bit of a funk in the second half of the season in the passing game and he may still be recovering from a concussion. He has not been great in cold weather either. In his ten career games in temperatures under 40 degrees, Hurts is completing only 57.8% of his passes with five touchdown passes and seven interceptions — and he averages only 127.7 passing Yards-Per-Game. In his three games this season with the temperature no higher than 40 degrees, he has averaged just 139.7 passing YPG. If the Philly game script is to abandon the pass, the Rams can cheat their strong safety into the box to help stop running back Saquon Barkley. The Eagles have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles on the first meeting between these two teams on November 24th by a 37-20 score as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games on the road in rematch situations — and Philadelphia is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games when it is a rematch. 10* NFL LA Rams-Philadelphia NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (391) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (392). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (391) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (392). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 27-9 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) has won three games in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests after their 22-10 victory against Green Bay as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only gained 292 yards of offense last week despite the easy victory. Their pass rush sacked Sam Darnold nine times — and they held the Vikings to just 269 yards. Minnesota averaged a mere 3.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. In the last six weeks of the regular season, their defense ranked 11th in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. Snow is expected this afternoon — and that is not ideal for the veteran Matthew Stafford who played indoors for most of his games when playing with Detroit. But Stafford won’t mind the cold weather. In his 12 career games played in temperates no higher than 40 degrees, he has averaged 265.3 passing Yards-Per-Game from completing 63.1% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions — and he has a 96.6 Quarterback Rating in those games. The Rams have covered the point spread in 12 of their 19 games after a straight up win. They stay on the road after playing last week’s game in Glendale, Arizona — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia only gained 290 yards last week in their win against the Packers. Jalen Hurts has been in a bit of a funk in the second half of the season in the passing game and he may still be recovering from a concussion. He has not been great in cold weather either. In his ten career games in temperatures under 40 degrees, Hurts is completing only 57.8% of his passes with five touchdown passes and seven interceptions — and he averages only 127.7 passing Yards-Per-Game. In his three games this season with the temperature no higher than 40 degrees, he has averaged just 139.7 passing YPG. If the Philly game script is to abandon the pass, the Rams can cheat their strong safety into the box to help stop running back Saquon Barkley. The Eagles have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles on the first meeting between these two teams on November 24th by a 37-20 score as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games on the road in rematch situations — and Philadelphia is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games when it is a rematch. 10* NFL LA Rams-Philadelphia NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (391) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (392). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (390) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (389). THE SITUATION: Washington (13-5) has won six games in a row after their 23-20 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (15-2) comes off the bye last week after ending their regular season with a 31-9 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on January 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Commanders' defense has played better lately as they rank in the top ten in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders in their last six games of the regular season. They limited the Buccaneers to just 284 yards of offense in a strange game where both teams were uncharacteristically sluggish in the first half. Outside of that game against what had been a good offensive team. Washington has enjoyed a favorable schedule during that span against backup quarterbacks for Dallas (twice), New Orleans, and Tennessee, and a rookie quarterback for Atlanta. The only quarterback they faced during that span who was a Week One starter was Jalen Hurts — and Philadelphia scored 33 points against them. Now the Commanders stay on the road for the third straight game — and they play at Ford Field which is one of the most intimidating home environments in the NFL. Because that stadium is built like a warehouse with a lower roof than most other indoor stadiums, the noise reverberates even more than in domes. This will be the loudest stadium Jayden Daniels has ever played in — and he is not experienced when operating with silent counts. The Commanders are just 12-22-1 ATS in their last 35 games played in Prime-Time. Head coach Dan Quinn has overseen 20 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher going back to his previous stint with Atlanta — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those games. Detroit has covered the point spread in 17 of their 21 games after a double-digit win. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their 22 games when playing with extra rest. In their two previous games this season coming off a bye week, they scored at least 40 points. With head coach Dan Campbell proudly splitting kings at the blackjack table, the Lions rank second in the NFL in Fourth Down Conversion Rate. They also rank second in Third Down Conversion Rate and seventh in Red Zone Touchdown Rate with offensive coordinator and future head coach Ben Johnson calling the plays. Detroit ranks third in the league in Expected Points Added per play — and they have scored points on 51.6% of their possessions. They have scored at least 31 points in ten straight games — and they have scored at least 34 points in four straight games. The defense is getting healthier after Alex Anzalone returned for the showdown with the Vikings two weeks ago and now rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold coming back from injury for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also expected back. The Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit is 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games at home since 2021 — and they are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (390) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). THE SITUATION: Washington (13-5) has won six games in a row after their 23-20 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (15-2) comes off the bye last week after ending their regular season with a 31-9 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on January 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams have high-powered offenses — and both these teams are aggressive on fourth downs. The high-risk/high-reward tactics of going for it on fourth down leads to more scoring either from extending drives or offering short fields to their opponent when the conversion attempt fails. The Commanders were three-of-five on fourth down last week against the Buccaneers — and it led to 14 points. For the season, Washington has converted 23 of their 28 (82%) fourth down attempts — and it has generated an additional 129 points for them. Having Jayden Daniels helps — and it is often on fourth downs when the threat he presents with his legs comes to fruition. The Commanders rank fourth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play. They have scored points on 50% of their possessions this season. They have scored at least 26 points in ten of their games. Washington has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Commanders' defense has played better lately as they rank in the top ten in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders in their last six games of the regular season. But they enjoyed a favorable schedule during that span against backup quarterbacks for Dallas (twice), New Orleans, and Tennessee, and a rookie quarterback for Atlanta. The only quarterback they faced during that span who was a Week One starter was Jalen Hurts — and Philadelphia scored 33 points against them. Washington has played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total when playing on short rest. Detroit has played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points. With head coach Dan Campbell proudly splitting kings at the blackjack table, the Lions rank second in the NFL in Fourth Down Conversion Rate. They also rank second in Third Down Conversion Rate and seventh in Red Zone Touchdown Rate with offensive coordinator and future head coach Ben Johnson calling the plays. Detroit ranks third in the league in Expected Points Added per play — and they have scored points on 51.6% of their possessions. They have scored at least 31 points in ten straight games — and they have scored at least 34 points in four straight games. However, the defense ranks in the bottom five in Defensive DVOA in the final six weeks of the regular season, and they ranked 30th in that metric over the final three weeks. Looking at Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed, they ranked 28th in that metric since Week 13. Against teams ranking in the top ten in Offensive DVOA, they surrendered 27.8 Points-Per-Game. Green Bay, Buffalo, and San Francisco scored 31, 48, and 34 points against them in games since December. And while the defense looked great against the Vikings, I think that speaks more to the state of the Minnesota offensive line along with Sam Darnold seeing ghosts again than it does about the quality of this defense. Opponents have completed 69.3% of their passes against them on first down — so I suspect that will be the game script for the Commanders to throw on first down which will lead to more passing and more stoppage of the clock. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against winning teams.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Washington has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points including five of those six games this season. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (388) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (387). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-2) had won six games in a row before their 38-0 loss at Denver as an 11.5-point underdog two weeks ago in a game where they rested their starters. Houston (11-7) has won two games in a row after their 32-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Texans last week in a game where the rest of the world seemed to be on the Chargers. But a letdown now is likely. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. The Texans offense has struggled this season amidst a sophomore slump from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Injuries have played a role with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out the season. It does not help for today’s game that running back Joe Mixon is nursing an ankle injury. Stroud has not been as effective on the road this season. In eight games at home, he has completed 64.6% of his passes for 252.0 passing Yards-Per-Game — and he has a Quarterback Rating of 89.6. But in his nine starts on the road, he has completed only 61.6% of his passes for 190.1 passing YPG — and he has a QBR of 84.3. Kansas City had held five straight opponents to no more than 19 points before head coach Andy Reid rested his key starters against the Broncos two weeks ago. Their defense does get back cornerback Jaylen Watson — and that unit ranked in the top eight in pass defense in the first seven weeks of the season before losing him to injury. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Houston wants to avenge a 27-19 loss at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog on December 21st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 attempts to get revenge from a loss on the road. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (388) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (387). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-7) has won two games in a row after their 32-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas City (15-2) had won six games in a row before their 38-0 loss at Denver as an 11.5-point underdog two weeks ago in a game where they rested their starters.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Chargers to just 261 yards of offense. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and their last two opponents have only scored 26 combined points against them. Houston has an outstanding defense that is balanced. They rank sixth in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and seventh in the league in Opponent EPA per pass attempt. Defensive end Willie Anderson has taken his game to the next level. In his last six contests, the second-year pro has five sacks, 12 hits on the quarterback, and six tackles for loss. The Texans rank third in the NFL in both sacks and takeaways. Houston has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points. But the Texans offense has struggled this season amidst a sophomore slump from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Injuries have played a role with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out the season. It does not help for today’s game that running back Joe Mixon is nursing an ankle injury. Stroud has not been as effective on the road this season. In eight games at home, he has completed 64.6% of his passes for 252.0 passing Yards-Per-Game — and he has a Quarterback Rating of 89.6. But in his nine starts on the road, he has completed only 61.6% of his passes for 190.1 passing YPG — and he has a QBR of 84.3. Under head coach DeMeco Ryan, the Texans have played 12 of their 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City had held five straight opponents to no more than 19 points before head coach Andy Reid rested his key starters against the Broncos two weeks ago. The Chiefs offense is likely to start this game sluggish after not playing a meaningful game since Christmas Day. Their defense does get back cornerback Jaylen Watson — and that unit ranked in the top eight in pass defense in the first seven weeks of the season before losing him to injury. Kansas City has played 12 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: In Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, Kansas City has paled 33 of their 44 home games Under the Total when favored by at least seven points. The weather will not help the scoring with the temperature in the low-20s — and the wind is over 10 miles per hour. 25* NFL AFC Divisional Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (397) and the Los Angeles Rams (398). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (14-3) picks themselves up from their 31-9 loss at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped after their 30-25 loss at home against Seattle as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. This game was moved to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, because of the fires in the greater Los Angeles area.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Minnesota has scored at least 27 points in four straight games struggling against the Lions last week. Crowd noise played a significant role in that game — I was very concerned about the communication between head coach Kevin O’Connell and quarterback Sam Darnold being impaired in what was rabid crowd noise in Detroit last week. Crowd noise is rarely a problem for visiting teams to SoFi Stadium — and with this game now moving to State Farm Stadium in Arizona, the Vikings may have the crowd edge tonight. The Vikings have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played all 4 of their games against teams with a winning record Over the Total this season. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Vikings score 25.4 Points-Per-Game, the Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. With offensive lineman Rob Havenstein probable to play and quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams, and wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua all rested and ready after getting last week off, the Los Angeles offense is as healthy as it has been all season. The young defense had held three straight opponents to just 24 combined points before the Seahawks put up 30 points against them — but that may say more about the state of the San Francisco, New York Jets, and Arizona offenses that were all held to single digits by the Rams. Both Buffalo and Philadelphia scored 42 and 37 points against them since late November — so this unit is vulnerable.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the regular season with the Rams winning at home by a 30-20 score as a 3-point underdog on October 24th. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (397) and the Los Angeles Rams (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (398) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (397). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped after their 30-25 loss at home against Seattle as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (14-3) picks themselves up from their 31-9 loss at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game was moved to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, because of the fires in the greater Los Angeles area.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: The Vikings may have gotten exposed last week against the Lions who held them to only 262 yards of offense despite all their injuries on defense. I was worried about quarterback Sam Darnold going into that game since he had been elevated into the MVP conversation that week after completing 33 of 43 passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers. There was a stretch when Darnold threw five interceptions in a two-game stretch in early November — but after playing four games in a row, many pundits concluded that this problem of turnover the ball over was mostly over. I wasn’t buying it. He threw only one interception against the Packers — but I saw several more turnover-worthy plays that he got away with in that game. With the top seed in the NFC playoffs on the line, last week’s game against the Lions was the biggest in Darnold’s career — and he laid an egg by completing only 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards. He was high on many of the incompletions. He was missed open receivers — most notably Jordan Addison who head coach Kevin O’Connell schemed wide open inside the five-yard line in one of the Vikings’ several Red Zone drives that came up empty. I don’t think the problem was that Darnold was simply too amped up for this game. I think he is streaky and inconsistent. When things are going well, he plays with confidence — and acts like he won the Super Bowl afterward like he did in a post-game locker room celebration after the win against Green Bay. But when things go bad as they did last week in Detroit, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk — and what his midseason slump demonstrated to me is that he cannot simply flip the switch. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside. Minnesota’s 10-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession this season. They are only outgaining their opponents by +11.3 net Yards-Per-Game this season. This team reminds me of the Vikings team two years ago with Kirk Cousins at quarterback that went 11-0 in one-score games despite being outscored and outgained in the regular season. That team would then get exposed at home against Daniel Jones and a mediocre New York Giants squad in the playoffs. The common denominator in that team and now is head coach Kevin O’Connell who was in his rookie season that year. He is so good — and I have concluded that his game management and play-calling go a long way to explain their great record in close games. But there is only so much he can do — especially against great teams. If there is one area where O’Connell has not been elite, it is galvanizing his team again after losses. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 30 or more points. I suspect this speaks to the market overvaluing O’Connell’s team given the won-loss record rather than other indicators just as raw yardage. Now this inexperienced roster when it comes to playoff experience and success plays a Rams’ group led by the trio of head coach Sean McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford, and wide receiver Cooper Kupp that has a Super Bowl championship under their belts. Los Angeles’ veterans will be rested and ready to play this game after head coach Sean McVay decided to rest his key starters last week in lieu of trying to improve their seeding position. The Rams have covered the point spread in 24 of their 39 games after a loss in the McVay era — and they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a fellow NFC West rival at home. McVay’s teams usually exceed expectations against good offensive teams like the Vikings. Minnesota generates 5.9 Yards-Per-Play while getting 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game for 237.8 passing YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who generate 5.5 or more YPP. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who average 235 or more passing YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who average 7.0 or more YPA.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are better than their season numbers given the injuries they have endured this season along with the development of their great rookie class. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in January. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January. The move to Glendale is inconvenient for Los Angeles — and I think it is something that would have been a negative earlier in McVay’s career. But after enduring a losing season the year after their Super Bowl triumph at a time when he contemplated retiring from coaching to go into broadcasting with a lucrative offer purported offer from Amazon Prime, McVay has become a much better culture builder — and he appears to have a special group who seem extra-inspired to play for their home town tonight. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (398) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (397). Best of luck for — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (383). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-7) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 27-19 win against New Orleans as a 15-point favorite on Sunday. Washington (12-5) has won five games in a row after their 23-19 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay stays at home this week to play their third straight game on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. They are scoring 31.9 PPG in their last seven games. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 16 touchdowns in his last five games — and he has also added a threat with his legs during that span by rushing for 149 yards from 8.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He has helped the Bucs average 220.3 rushing YPG in their last three games. The Buccaneers offense is scoring 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, they are generating 452.0 total YPG which is resulting in 33.0 PPG. They lead the NFL in Third Down Conversion Rate Percentage. They rank fifth in EPA on offense and seventh in DVOA. They rank top five in Points-Per-Drive and fourth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Rage. On the other side of the ball, the Bucs' defense is getting healthier again with both Antoine Winfield and Jamal Dean returning from injury to bolster their secondary. They have held their last three opponents to just 271.0 rushing YPG which has resulted in 19.7 PPG. It is once again difficult to run against a Todd Bowles-coached defense. Tampa Bay is limiting their opponents to 97.8 rushing YPG and 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry ranking fourth and ninth in the league. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. The Commanders have only played three offenses this season that rank in the top ten in DVOA — and they surrendered 30 or points in all three of those games. They also rank just 22nd in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Allowed. Washington stays on the road for the second straight week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games. Head coach Dan Quinn’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 19 games on the road in his career going back to his tenure with Atlanta when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of their opening week contest back on September 8th when the Buccaneers won by a 37-20 score in Tampa Bay. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). THE SITUATION: Washington (12-5) has won five games in a row after their 23-19 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-7) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 27-19 win against New Orleans as a 15-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Don’t read too much into the Commanders' narrow win against the Cowboys where they only gained 269 yards of offense. Washington had nothing to play for in that game having already qualified for the postseason — and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels did not play the entire game. The Commanders had scored at least 30 points in three of their four previous games. They are scoring 28.5 Points-Per-Game with the various metrics measuring offensive strength validating how good they are at putting up points. They rank sixth in Offensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they rank fourth in Expected Points Added per play. They rank sixth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They also rank in the top five in Points-Per-Drive — and lead the NFL by scoring 2.8 Points-Per-Possession when playing on the road. But Washington is also giving up 373.9 total Yards-Per-Game on the road which is resulting in 25.0 Points-Per-Game. The Commanders have only played three offenses this season that rank in the top ten in DVOA — and they surrendered 30 or points in all three of those games. They also rank just 22nd in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Allowed. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total as a dog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay is scoring 31.9 PPG in their last seven games. They have played four straight Overs — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 16 touchdowns in his last five games — and he has also added a threat with his legs during that span by rushing for 149 yards from 8.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He has helped the Bucs average 220.3 rushing YPG in their last three games. Washington gives up 137.5 rushing YPG — and Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams who are allowing 130 or more rushing YPG. The Buccaneers offense is scoring 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, they are generating 452.0 total YPG which is resulting in 33.0 PPG. They lead the NFL in Third Down Conversion Rate Percentage. They rank fifth in EPA on offense and seventh in DVOA. They rank top five in Points-Per-Drive and fourth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Rage. The Commanders have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. And while Tampa Bay averages 250.4 passing YPG, Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are averaging 235 or more passing YPG. The Commanders generate 5.0 YPC themselves — and the Bucs have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. Additionally, head coach Todd Bowles has seen this team play 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against a team with a better record.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of their opening week contest back on September 8th when the Buccaneers won by a 37-20 score in Tampa Bay. Daniels is certainly more comfortable and confident over four months later after his professional debut. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (381) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (382). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-22 upset loss against Chicago as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (14-3) has won two games in a row after their 20-13 win against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Jordan Love is off the injury report — so he should be good to go in this game. Like the Houston Texans yesterday, the postseason offers new life for this Green Bay team that began the season with Super Bowl aspirations. They only won two of their seven games against playoff teams — but their five losses including walk-off field goal loss against Detroit, two losses against Minnesota by two points in each game, and a loss to these Eagles in Week One in that game in Brazil. The Packers faced the second most difficult schedule according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. Their upset loss to the Bears took place despite outgaining them by +143 net yards — giving up a 94-yard punt return for a touchdown played a big role in that game. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 25 of their 38 games after a loss under head coach Matt LaFleur. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to an NFC North rival. The Packers defense has steadily improved this season. Since Week Six, they ranked third in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and they also ranked third in Points Allowed per Drive. Additionally, they lead the NFL in Stuff Rate of opponent rushing attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage since Week Six. Since Week 10, Green Bay ranks fourth in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. And while the Eagles only allow 174.2 passing Yards-Per-Game, the Packers have won seven of their 11 games against teams who do not allow more than 180 passing YPG under LaFleur including four of their five games with Love starting under center. Green Bay will not be intimidating playing on the road after they dusted the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the playoffs last year before almost pulling off the upset the next week at San Francisco against the 49ers. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road when playing with normal rest — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games against fellow NFC rivals. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 19 of their 28 games on the road as an underdog in the LaFleur era. They are also 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 games under LaFleur as an underdog getting +3 to +7 points — and they have pulled off 13 upset victories in those 19 games. LaFleur’s teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 playoff games in the Wildcard or Divisional round — and while they have a 3-2 record in those five games, both losses were by just a field goal. Philadelphia gets quarterback Jalen Hurts back from the concussion protocol — but he may be rusty in this game after not playing for a few weeks. I worry that this team is one side-eye look away from imploding once again as they did last year under head coach Nick Sirianni. He’s a hot head — and while some players claim that they admire his energy, but when assistant coaches are yelling at him to go away, it’s not a good sign. The players quit on him in the playoffs last year. So, I worry. The Eagles have covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games under Sirianni after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have played their last two games at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games at home. Their defense played much better after their bye week when they moved Cooper DeJean into the starting lineup as a nickel back in a base 4-2-5 formation. But they ranked just 22nd in Stuff Rate since making that move. Philly played a bottom-five schedule — and they played the easiest defensive schedule according to DVOA. In Hurts 38 starts at home when favored by more than a field goal, the Eagles are just 16-20-2 ATS. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 10 games in January under Sirianni.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles won that first meeting between these teams by a 34-29 score in Brazil as a 1.5-point favorite on September 6th. The Packers have covered the point spread in 25 of their 39 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of those 11 games when an underdog on the road. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (381) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (382). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (378) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (377). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (12-5) has won four games in a row after their 35-10 win against Cleveland as a 20-point favorite on Saturday. Pittsburgh (10-7) limps into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak after their 19-17 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore should build off the momentum they have established as they enter the postseason. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game with quarterback Lamar Jackson under center. Baltimore continued their defensive resurgence in the second half of the season by holding the Browns to just 230 total yards of offense. After struggling early defending the pass, head coach John Harbaugh brought back veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to serve as a special advisor to first-year defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. That brain trust decided to move Kyle Hamilton to the free safety position during their bye week — and this tactical change has transformed their defense. Baltimore had the following defensive rankings through the first ten weeks of the regular season: 25th in Points-Per-Game allowed; 27th in Total Yards-Per-Game allowed; 32nd in Passing YPG allowed; 30th in opponent 3rd Down Rate allowed; tied-20th in opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage allowed; 26th in opponent Passer Rating allowed. Since Week 13, the Ravens' defense ranked number one in six of those categories. They have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held those last four opponents to 10.8 PPG. The Ravens stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. Furthermore, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home against teams with a winning record. The Steelers want revenge for their 34-17 loss at Baltimore on December 21st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their 34 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road under head coach Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh managed only 193 total yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The midseason decline of quarterback Russell Wilson is real, and it is spectacular. In his first seven starts since taking over for Justin Fields, he averaged 254.9 passing YPG by completing 64.8% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while posting a 103.9 Passer Rating. But during this four-game losing streak, he has averaged only 174.5 passing YPG and completed just 61.8% of his passes with four TD passes and two interceptions — and he has posted an 81.3 Passer Rating. Opposing defenses have caught up to his moon-ball or bust approach in the passing game. As I picked up in his tenure in Denver, Wilson has mastered stuffing his stats as best he can with these deep shots peppered with very few passes in the middle of the field — and he takes too many sacks. But as long as his interception numbers stay relatively low and his completion percentage is solid — at the expense of being a Check-Down Charlie — he remains relevant and in line to getting yet another overpriced contract. In his two starts against Baltimore this season, he has taken seven sacks. Wide receiver George Pickens seems checked out himself with only one catch and three bad drops last week. The Steelers are scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last four games while never scoring more than 17 points in those games. The three previous NFL teams entering the playoffs having not scored more than 17 points in four straight games once again did not eclipse 17 points in their playoff game. During their four-game losing streak, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in the league in both Expected Points Added per play and Expected Points Added per dropback in the passing game. Running back Najee Harris averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry in his two games against the Ravens this season. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 9 games on the road under Tomlin as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has lost and failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the postseason — and four of their losses were by at least 11 points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games in the Wildcard round under Tomlin. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the Wildcard round under Harbaugh. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (378) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) limps into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak after their 19-17 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (12-5) has won four games in a row after their 35-10 win against Cleveland as a 20-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens continued their defensive resurgence in the second half of the season by holding the Browns to just 230 total yards of offense. After struggling early defending the pass, head coach John Harbaugh brought back veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to serve as a special advisor to first-year defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. That brain trust decided to move Kyle Hamilton to the free safety position during their bye week — and this tactical change has transformed their defense. Baltimore had the following defensive rankings through the first ten weeks of the regular season: 25th in Points-Per-Game allowed; 27th in Total Yards-Per-Game allowed; 32nd in Passing YPG allowed; 30th in opponent 3rd Down Rate allowed; tied-20th in opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage allowed; 26th in opponent Passer Rating allowed. Since Week 13, the Ravens' defense ranked number one in six of those categories. They have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held those last four opponents to 10.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win at home against a divisional opponent. Now comes the postseason where quarterback Lamar Jackson has struggled in the past — and he admitted this week that he gets very amped up for these games which may be impacting his performances. And he faces a Steelers team that has done a good job of containing him over the year. In his regular season career, Jackson has completed 64.9% of his passes and averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt while posting a 102.0 Quarterback Rating. In the playoffs, Jackson’s QBR drops to a 75.7 mark with him completing only 57.4% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He has only six touchdown passes in his six playoff games — and he has been sacked 26 times. The corollary of Jackson’s great winning percentage against NFC opponents is that a very familiar opponent like Pittsburgh who plays against him at least twice a year defends him quite well. In his eight career starts against head coach Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, he has a QBR of 73.1 while completing only 58.0% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He averages only 160.5 passing YPG in his career against Pittsburgh with eight TD passes by nine interceptions — and he has been sacked 23 times. To compound the challenge for Jackson in this game, he will be without injured wide receiver Zay Flowers who averaged 14.3 Yards-Per-Reception for 1059 receiving yards this season. In his two games against Pittsburgh this season, he has thrown for 207 passing yards in each game but only completed 55.3% of his passes. Pittsburgh managed only 193 total yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The midseason decline of quarterback Russell Wilson is real, and it is spectacular. In his first seven starts since taking over for Justin Fields, he averaged 254.9 passing YPG by completing 64.8% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while posting a 103.9 Passer Rating. But during this four-game losing streak, he has averaged only 174.5 passing YPG and completed just 61.8% of his passes with four TD passes and two interceptions — and he has posted an 81.3 Passer Rating. Opposing defenses have caught up to his moon-ball or bust approach in the passing game. As I picked up in his tenure in Denver, Wilson has mastered stuffing his stats as best he can with these deep shots peppered with very few passes in the middle of the field — and he takes too many sacks. But as long as his interception numbers stay relatively low and his completion percentage is solid — at the expense of being a Check-Down Charlie — he remains relevant and in line to getting yet another overpriced contract. In his two starts against Baltimore this season, he has taken seven sacks. Wide receiver George Pickens seems checked out himself with only one catch and three bad drops last week. The Steelers are scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last four games while never scoring more than 17 points in those games. The three previous NFL teams entering the playoffs having not scored more than 17 points in four straight games once again did not eclipse 17 points in their playoff game. During their four-game losing streak, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in the league in both Expected Points Added per play and Expected Points Added per dropback in the passing game. Running back Najee Harris averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry in his two games against the Ravens this season. The Steelers have played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 5 of their 7 games under head coach John Harbaugh in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (376) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (375) in the Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs. THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 23-14 upset win at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (11-60 has won two games in a row after their 34-20 victory at Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston may not be meeting their potential Super Bowl expectations this season — but they are being too easily dismissed in this game as a home underdog getting up to a field goal. They have had the AFC South wrapped up for weeks — which has allowed them to regroup and prepare for the postseason. Expect plenty of touches for running back Joe Mixon who has only had 40 carries in the last month. The Texans are missing two starting wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell but they still have their best wideout Nico Collins. The defense is stacked at defensive end and cornerback — Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are elite pass rush inners and Derek Stingley, Jr. is one of the best cover corners in the league. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after beating an AFC South rival in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against fellow divisional rivals. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has also covered the point spread in 9 of his 15 starts as an underdog. The Chargers are allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Texans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who allow 4.5 or more YPC. Los Angeles is playing their third game in a row away from home — and the players have endured a difficult week with the local fires. They have overachieved expectations in the first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh — but they have lost five of their seven games against teams in the playoffs with their only victories being against Denver. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who are winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (376) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (375). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (286) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286) in the Cotton Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 39-31 win in overtime against Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Ohio State (12-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 41-21 victory against Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals contest on New Year’s Day last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Can Texas survive the Mike Tyson first-round fury that the explosive Ohio State offense will try to unleash early in this game? The Buckeyes floored the Ducks last week by scoring the game’s first two touchdowns and then countering Oregon’s first score with another 20 points to go into the locker room with a 34-8 lead. Longhorns’ head coach Steve Sarkisian will want to slow this game down with long possessions to keep the explosive Ohio State offense off the field — and he shifted to a power run ball control offense in the second half of the season. The Longhorns rushed for at least 210 yards in four of their last seven games. Running the ball will also protect his elite defense and keep them fresh in the second half. Texas ranks second in the nation in Yards-Per-Play Allowed and Points-Per-Drive Allowed — and they rank third in Opponents Expected Points per Play Allowed. The beleaguered Buckeyes offensive line has not allowed a sack in their two playoff games — but this remains a shaky unit that lost its best two players to injury before getting exposed by Michigan. The Texas defensive front is one of the best in the nation — they ranked 14th in the nation Sacks per opponent dropback. They have registered multiple sacks in six straight games after registering three sacks and 18 Quarterback Pressures last week. When Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has a clean pocket, he is lethal - but he becomes very ordinary when under pressure as the Wolverines demonstrated. Howard now faces the best secondary he will have faced all season. Cornerback Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award and has the talent to match up with freshman phenom wideout Jeremiah Smith. With cornerback Malik Muhammed and free safety Andrew Mukaba, the Longhorns ranked third in the nation in Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed per dropback. The Buckeyes’ offense can struggle if they get off schedule. They rank just 85th in the nation on third down needing seven or more yards from which they convert only 23.3% of the time. Howard is not as effective in the passing game if his scrambling is less of a threat. Texas has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents. Ohio State does generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry — but the Longhorns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. The Buckeyes limit their opponents to 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but Texas is 12-2-1 ATS in their 15 games under Sarkisian against teams who are not allowing more than 5.9 YPA. If this game remains close at halftime, then I expect it to be a nailbiter the rest of the way as the weight of the world begins to fall on Ohio State head coach Ryan Day. In Day’s 6 games as a favorite on a neutral field with the Buckeyes, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 14 games against teams from the SEC with ten straight-up losses. Ohio State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home after beating a Big Ten rival.

FINAL TAKE: Sarkisian has an ace-in-the-hole with backup quarterback Arch Manning — and I suspect he has been sandbagging using him until a playoff moment just like this. It reminds me of when Alabama benched quarterback Jalen Hurts for Tua Tagovailoa in the National Championship Game against Georgia. Sarkisian was an offensive analyst for Nick Saban that season. Manning offers a unique threat over Quinn Ewers with his legs — and he opens up the playbook since he has a big arm that can throw wide receivers open. It is the curveball that would disrupt Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' plans. 10* CFB Ohio State-Texas ESPN Special with the Texas Longhorns (286) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (285). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286) in the Cotton Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (12-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 41-21 victory against Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals contest on New Year’s Day last Wednesday. Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 39-31 win in overtime against Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes’ explosive offense may get most of the attention but it is their defense that I consider the most underrated unit in this contest. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards last week from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. Oregon went into that game scoring 35.9 Points-Per-Game. The Buckeyes pass rush was ferocious last week as they registered 13 tackles for loss. Defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have taken their games to another level in the playoffs by combing for 7.5 sacks, 16 Quarterback Pressures, and seven batted down passes. Knowles decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. In the playoffs, they have held their two opponents to -7 fewer points than even the bullish SP+ ratings projected. The 3.8 Yards-Per-Play allowed in the playoffs is also the lowest of all qualifying teams. The Longhorns offensive line may not be at full strength given the knee injury of right tackle Cameron Williams. He has practiced all week after not playing last week against the Sun Devils. Regardless, he was the weak link in Texas’ two losses to Georgia this season. Left tackle Kelvin Banks is good — but he can’t block both Tuimoloau and Sawyer. The Longhorns scored only 15 and 19 points against the Bulldogs — and they only managed to score 17 points against a Texas A&M team that also had an elite defensive front. Ohio State has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Texas scores 34.4 Points-Per-Game — and the Buckeyes have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams scoring 37 or more PPG. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian shifted to a power run ball control offense in the second half of the season — and he will want to slow this game down with long possessions to keep the explosive Ohio State offense off the field. The Longhorns rushed for at least 210 yards in four of their last seven games. Running the ball will also protect his elite defense and keep them fresh in the second half. Texas ranks second in the nation in Yards-Per-Play Allowed and Points-Per-Drive Allowed — and they rank third in Opponents Expected Points per Play Allowed. The beleaguered Buckeyes offensive line has not allowed a sack in their two playoff games — but this remains a shaky unit that lost its best two players to injury before getting exposed by Michigan. The Texas defensive front is one of the best in the nation — they ranked 14th in the nation Sacks per opponent dropback. They have registered multiple sacks in six straight games after registering three sacks and 18 Quarterback Pressures last week. When Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has a clean pocket, he is lethal - but he becomes very ordinary when under pressure as the Wolverines demonstrated. Howard now faces the best secondary he will have faced all season. Cornerback Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award and has the talent to match up with freshman phenom wideout Jeremiah Smith. With cornerback Malik Muhammed and free safety Andrew Mukaba, the Longhorns ranked third in the nation in Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed per dropback. The Buckeyes’ offense can struggle if they get off schedule. They rank just 85th in the nation on third down needing seven or more yards from which they convert only 23.3% of the time. Howard is not as effective in the passing game if his scrambling is less of a threat. Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They hold their opens to 111.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game —  and Ohio State has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 120 rushing YPG. The Buckeyes score 36.4 PPG and generate 263.4 passing YPG. The Longhorns have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG. Ohio State gives up only  246.4 total YPG — and in their 7 games under Sarkisian playing a team that does not allow more than 310 YPG, 5 of those games finished Under the Total. The Longhorns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of those 11 games Under the Total when played away from home. In their 6 games played on a neutral field under head coach Ryan Day as a favorite, 4 of those games finished Under the Total. In the 6 games Texas has played under Sarkisian as an underdog, 4 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (284) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (283) in the Orange Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Penn State (13-2) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven after their 31-14 victory against Boise State as an 11.5-point favorite in the College Football Quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve last Tuesday. Notre Dame (13-1) has won 12 games in a row after their 23-10 victory as a 1-point favorite against Georgia in their quarterfinals contest last Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINT(S): I consider these two teams (and programs) to be mirror images of each other (or the Spiderman social media meme). These are two football teams that tend to be flat-track bullies against lesser competition who then get overwhelmed by the elite teams that season. The Fighting Irish pulled off their best victory by beating Georgia under head coach Marcus Freeman in his three years with the program. I don’t know what to make of that victory other than it was Notre Dame who made the big plays in a game-changing minute stretch where they kicked a late field goal in the first half before intercepting a pass deep in the Bulldogs side of the field to score a touchdown and then returned the opening kick off for another touchdown. That 17-0 swing in points decoded the game. It was a stalemate for the other 59 minutes of the game. Georgia outgained the Fighting Irish in yardage by a 296-244 margin — and they won the first down battle by a 16-14 margin. Notre Dame benefited from a +2 net turnover margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Just how impressive was this victory against a  Georgia team with an inexperienced quarterback and no first-team All-Americans for the first time in years? The one clear difference between these two Spiderman programs pointing at each other is that Penn State does have more experience in these heavyweight showdown fights against elite competition. They played Ohio State and Michigan for many years in a row with "weight of the world" stakes since the loser was likely eliminated from the four-team college football playoff. They did not play the Wolverines this season — but they did face Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. While they lost to both the Ducks and the Buckeyes, both losses were by one scoring possession. What are those analogous experiences for Notre Dame under Freeman? Granted, they had the Lou Holtz Bowl last year against Ohio State (when Ryan Day called out Holtz after the game in his rant about “toughness”) — marred by the 10-men on the field debacle when trying to stop the Buckeyes winning touchdown. In a game big game last season against Clemson, the Irish quacky fell behind by 18 points in last year’s big game against Clemson. The quality of Notre Dame’s competition in Freeman’s three years: (1) Ohio State last year (2) Georgia last week; (3) the other Clemson game three years ago (4) one of the mediocre USC teams (5) Indiana two weeks ago?!? (6) Navy this year? You get the point. I worry that this is the game when the smaller Fighting Irish defensive line gets exposed by a physical offensive line that the Nittany Lions possess. The season-ending injury to rugged defensive tackle Rylie Mills really hurts for this contest. Led by running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, Penn State rushed for 293 yards against Oregon. The Nittany Lions lack explosive threat from their wide receivers, but they still rank third in the nation in Pass Success Rate with quarterback Drew Allar. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava threw for 360 yards against the Notre Dame defense. Defensive end Abdul Carter may be a top-five pick in the NFL draft — and he is probably the best defensive lineman the Irish offensive line will face this season. Can the Irish win this game if it is close without getting more from their passing game? Quarterback Riley Leonard only passed for 90 yards last week -- but that 17-0 point swing in that magical minute gave the offense the security blanket they needed to survive scoring just two more field goals the rest of the way. Notre Dame lacks explosiveness from their wide receivers as well — but they lack the talent at tight end that Penn State has with Tyler Warren.

FINAL TAKE: The Nittany Lions have been knocking on the door for years under head coach James Franklin. I suspect Penn State is at the point where they can see “If we just do this, then we can beat Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and everyone else.” Does Notre Dame have that same level of conviction of “thinking they see it” or merely hoping/wishing that they are finally there after beating Georgia (and, if so, does that instigate a short-term letdown since they finally feel they have arrived)? And this afternoon there are reports of a flu bug in the Irish locker room. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Big Ten. With more big-game experience and with more top-level NFL talent, they find a way to finally open that door. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Penn State ESPN Special with Penn State Nittany Lions (284) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (283). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (283) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (284) in the Orange Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Penn State (13-2) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven after their 31-14 victory against Boise State as an 11.5-point favorite in the College Football Quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve last Tuesday. Notre Dame (13-1) has won 12 games in a row after their 23-10 victory as a 1-point favorite against Georgia in their quarterfinals contest last Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I expect a rock fight between two head coaches whose formula for success is to impose their will by winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. And I just do not see either head coach taking big swings on offense since it risks their quarterback making a big mistake — and I suspect both Marcus Freeman and James Franklin think winning the turnover battle will decide this game. Two head coaches expecting the other to blink first is a recipe for a lower-scoring game. Penn State’s offensive line averages 318 pounds per player — and grinding things out against an undersized Fighting Irish defensive front might create scoring opportunities late in the game. Their running back dynamic dup of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen have scored eight of their 17 rushing touchdowns this season in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame allowed only 13.6 Points-per-Game this season — and the Nittany Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 17 PPG. Their defense only gives up 15.8 PPG. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. Furthermore, Penn State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. Notre Dame limited the Bulldogs to just 296 yards last week. They have one of the best defensive coordinators in the business, Al Golden. What they lack in an explosive future NFL pass rusher, they make up for in a group effort. They pressured Georgia quarterback Gunnar Stockton on 53.8% of his dropbacks and sacked him four times. They also limited Georgia to only 99 rushing yards (non-sack). Now they face a Nittany Lions offensive line that is not as imposing as what the Bulldogs offered. Penn State only surrendered eight sacks in Big Ten play — but they have given up seven sacks in their first two playoff games. While the Nittany Lions may struggle in passing downs — especially against Notre Dame’s two great safeties Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler, this has been a problem for the Irish. Quarterback Riley Leonard’s legs make him a threat, that is neutralized on third-and-long situations. The Fighting Irish convert on third down when needing six yards or less 54% of the time. But when it is third-and-seven or more yards, they only have converted on 11 of their 74 opportunities for a low 14.8% success rate. The Fighting Irish have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Penn State has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range including six Unders in those last seven circumstances. 10* CFB Thursday Daily O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (283) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (363) and the Detroit Lions (364). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (14-2) has won nine games in a row after their 27-25 victory at home against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (14-2) has won two games in a row after their 40-34 win at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: When the Total opened at 51 last Sunday, I was initially considering endorsing and investing in the Over for this showdown. But with the market betting the number up to the 56.5-point range, it’s just too high. I concluded that taking the contrarian route with the Under was more prudent. There are simply too many ways that a two-touchdown per-quarter pace can get derailed. One way is by turnovers that kill drives. Minnesota has forced 31 turnovers this season at a 1.9 Turnover-Per-Game rate. On the road, they are forcing 2.1 Turnovers-Per-Game. They have forced at least one turnover in every game this season. I also suspect that head coach Kevin O’Connell does not want to get into a shooting — so look for him to burn clock and keep the Lions offense off the field. The Vikings did generate 441 yards last week against the Packers — but they have played all 5 games under O’Connell Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. Detroit’s defense could not slow down Brock Purdy and the San Francisco offense last week — but they do get some help this week from their battered group with Alex Anzalone returning at linebacker from his injury. But what defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s group is doing well is forcing turnovers. They have forced two turnovers in their last two games after posting a +2 net turnover margin against the 49ers. The Lions have played 9 of their last 15 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions allowed 400 passing yards to Brock Purdy last week who averaged 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt — but that helps trigger an empirical situational angle supporting the Under that has been 72% effective since 2020. In games with the Total set at 49.5, when the home team comes off a game where they allowed 8.0  or more Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, those games finished Under the Total in 44 of these last 61 situations. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (363) and the Detroit Lions (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (364) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (363). THE SITUATION: Detroit (14-2) has won two games in a row after their 40-34 win at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (14-2) has won nine games in a row after their 27-25 victory at home against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: The NFL has declared this contest the most consequential final game in the history of the regular season since the winner seizes the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage until the Super Bowl. It is going to be a madhouse at Ford Field which is already one of the loudest stadiums in the league. The construction is similar to a warehouse — and the lower-than-usual ceiling reverberates noise more distinctly than in most stadiums. I suspect this is going to create problems for the Vikings — especially on offense. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been elevated into the MVP conversation after completing 33 of 43 passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers. There was a stretch when Darnold threw five interceptions in a two-game stretch in early November — but after playing four games in a row, many pundits concluded that this problem of turnover the ball over was mostly over. I’m not sure. He threw only one interception last week — but I saw several more turnover-worthy plays that he got away with in that game. We were on the Packers in that game. I cannot get over that Minnesota has a 10-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession this season. They are only outgaining their opponents by +20.4 net Yards-Per-Game this season. This team reminds me of the Vikings team two years ago with Kirk Cousins at quarterback that went 11-0 in one-score games despite being outscored and outgained in the regular season. That team would then get exposed at home against Daniel Jones and a mediocre New York Giants squad in the playoffs. The common denominator in that team and now is head coach Kevin O’Connell who was in his rookie season that year. He is so good — and I have concluded that his game management and play-calling go a long way to explain their great record in close games. But there is only so much he can do — especially against great teams. If the communication between Darnold and himself is impaired because of the crowd noise, then I expect Darnold to make more mistakes (and, I know, Darnold made a great throw two weeks ago against Seattle when his communication system got temporarily derailed). This is the biggest game Darnold has ever played in what will be a very hostile environment. I think he feels empowered to “go for it” right now — and I expect he will make mistakes that he will pay for against this Lions team. I’m skeptical the Minnesota offense is equipped to hang on and win in a shootout. They have not scored more than 30 points in 11 of their last 12 games. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in all 6 games under O’Connell when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher. And while Detroit averages 266.1 passing YPG, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams who average 235 or more passing YPG. The Lions, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 19 of their 25 games under head coach Dan Campbell with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And while the Vikings generate 243.8 passing YPG, Detroit has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams who generate 235 or more passing YPG. The Lions feel very good about themselves after avenging their NFC Championship Game against the 49ers without injuring any players last week in a game that would not impact the stakes for this game. Detroit has scored at least 34 points in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home having covered the point spread in 5 straight games after completing a two-game road trip. The Lions have covered the point spread in 29 of their 41 games played in a dome in the Campbell era. Their defense could not slow down Brock Purdy and the San Francisco offense last week — but they do get some help this week from their battered group with  Alex Anzalone returning at linebacker from his injury. But what defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s group is doing well is forcing turnovers. They have forced two turnovers in their last two games without a giveaway themselves — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their 16 games under Campbell after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Detroit does not turn the ball over — besides the one outlier game when quarterback Jared Goff threw five interceptions (in a winning effort), they have only turned the ball over five other times all season.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings are scoring 26.6 Points-Per-Game this season — but the Lions have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who score 24 or more PPG. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Detroit Lions (364) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (363). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (355) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (356). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 30-24 win in overtime against Denver as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Pittsburgh (10-6) has lost three straight games after their 29-10 loss at home to Kansas City as a 1.5-point underdog on December 25th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh has lost three straight games by 14 or more points while surrendering 30.0 Points-Per-Game during that stretch — but they have had a tough stretch of games against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and then the Chiefs last week. Head coach Mike Tomlin has had extra time to get his team rested and focused for this game. While winning the AFC North and taking the third seed in the AFC playoffs would require the minor miracle of Cleveland upsetting Baltimore this afternoon, beating the Bengals would set up a date next week in Houston against the Texans which is a far better first-round opponent than playing on the road against the Ravens. Cincinnati is generating 398.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but the Steelers held them to 375 yards in their 44-38 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on December 1st. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against familiar AFC opponents. The Bengals are scoring 28.3 Points-Per-Game — and the Steelers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. And while Cincinnati gives up 26.1 PPG, Pittsburgh has played 6 straight Unders against teams who give up 24 or more PPG. Additionally, the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. Cincinnati is still technically alive to make the playoffs — but they need lots of unlikely help besides winning this game. The Bengals would also need Kansas City playing backups to upset Denver along with the New York Jets to beat Miami tomorrow. That is an uphill battle. They have held their last four opponents to just 19.3 Points-Per-Game, those games were against Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, and then the Broncos. They rank 18th in Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed in those last four games which does represent an improvement. Cincinnati has played 7 of their 11 games Under the Total in January in head coach Zac Taylor’s tenure.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are giving up 335.4 total YPG at home which is resulting in just 17.4 PPG. They have played 5 straight Unders at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. With the weather dropping to a low of 16 degrees tonight with winds at 15 miles per hour gusting to 29 MPH, the conditions will not help Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game. 10* NFL Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (355) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (356). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (356) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (355). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-6) has lost three straight games after their 29-10 loss at home to Kansas City as a 1.5-point underdog on December 25th. Cincinnati (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 30-24 win in overtime against Denver as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has lost three straight games by 14 or more points — but they have had a tough stretch of games against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and then the Chiefs last week. They only got outgained by -25 yards against Kansas City but a -2 net turnover margin played a significant role in the loss. Head coach Mike Tomlin has had extra time to get his team rested and focused for this game. The Steelers need to get back to playing good football — and they need to win this game. While winning the AFC North and taking the third seed in the AFC playoffs would require the minor miracle of Cleveland upsetting Baltimore this afternoon, beating the Bengals would set up a date next week in Houston against the Texans which is a far better first-round opponent than playing on the road against the Ravens. Tomlin has addressed some internal locker room issues since the loss to Kansas City. And he needs quarterback Russell Wilson to stop turning the ball over. But Tomlin is as good as it gets in getting his team to bounce back. In his tenure, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their 20 games under Tomlin after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score at least 14 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 contests when those games were at home. This is the Steelers’ just third game at home since November 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow AFC North rivals including 5 straight point spread covers when playing at home. In the 26 games at home under Tomlin when they were the underdog, they have covered the point spread 18 times. Cincinnati is still technically alive to make the playoffs — but they need lots of unlikely help besides winning this game. The Bengals would also need Kansas City playing backups to upset Denver along with the New York Jets to beat Miami tomorrow. That is an uphill battle. Cincinnati has only beaten one team this season in their eight games against teams currently making the playoffs. Their defense has been a nightmare for most of the season. And while they have held their last four opponents to just 19.3 Points-Per-Game, those games were against Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, and then the Broncos. They rank 18th in Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed in those last four games which does represent an improvement but it is still in the bottom half of the league. Injuries have not helped matters on that side of the ball with defensive end Sam Hubbard and linebacker Logan Wilson out the year. Cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt is questionable to play with an ankle injury. This unit has still not recovered from letting safety Jessie Bates walk in free agency two years ago. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road against AFC North rivals. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when listed in that +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have won and covered the point spread in all three of their games played with extended rest and preparation this season. Tomlin is one of just three head coaches who have covered the point spread in all three of their Week 18 games since the league moved to 17 regular season games. Lastly, Pittsburgh has a 26-10-2 ATS mark in their 38 games played under Tomlin as a divisional underdog — and they have pulled off upsets in 22 of those contests against AFC North rivals. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (356) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (355). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (343) and the Baltimore Ravens (344). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-13) has lost five games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 20-3 loss to Miami as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (11-5) has won three games in a row after their 31-2 victory at Houston as a 6.5-point favorite back on December 25th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens need to win this game to clinch first place in the AFC North and the third seed in the AFC playoffs. They are now a ridiculous 20-point favorite — and a point spread I am highly reluctant to touch. But investing in the Under probably is a prudent way to capture how this game will go down. Baltimore should take a lead in this game — and once their lead is safe, head coach John Harbaugh will call off the proverbial dogs and bench his starters. At that point, both teams will probably just want to get this game completed as soon as possible and not risk injuries. Harbaugh has no interest in embarrassing his opponents — especially AFC North rivals who may use any slights to forge deals with the devil moving forward. The Ravens are not going to take this game lightly with the third seed on the line — and they have revenge on their mind to keep them sharp in practice this week after losing to the Browns by a 29-24 score as a 7.5-point favorite on October 27th. Baltimore should shut down the Cleveland offense this afternoon after holding their last three opponents to 11.0 Points-Per-Game. After a slow start to the season, Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for rookie defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. That helped. And after Joe Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 171.2 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 6.7 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s pass defense giving up 248.5 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now. Moving forward, with Hamilton playing at free safety and Pees providing his insight on a weekly basis, this Ravens team may have one of the best defenses in the league — despite what the season-long statistics may suggest. The Ravens have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Cleveland will start Bailey Zappe at quarterback this afternoon although Dorian Thompson-Robinson is expected to get some snaps. The Browns only gained 276 yards last week in their loss to the Dolphins. They have scored only 16 combined points in their last three games. The Cleveland defense will still be playing with pride in this game. Myles Garrett has registered six sacks, four more tackles for loss, and ten hits on the quarterback in his last four games against the Ravens. The Browns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three in a row. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and in their last 12 games as an underdog, they have played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 16 of their 20 games Under the Total in January with Harbaugh as their head coach — and they have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total in his tenure when playing on a Saturday. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (343) and the Baltimore Ravens (344). Best of luck for us — Frank.

AAt 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils (275) and the Mississippi Rebels (276) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Duke (9-3) has won three games in a row after their 23-17 win at Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite on November 30th. Mississippi (9-3) has won four of their last five contests after their 26-14 win against Mississippi State as a 26-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Duke will be without starting quarterback Malik Murphy who transferred to Oregon State after playing in the Wake Forest game. Sophomore Henry Belin IV will get the start under center after throwing only one pass in the regular season. The former three-star recruit completed 13 of 26 passes last season in a 24-3 win against North Carolina State. The Blue Devils will also be without starting running back Star Thomas who also entered the transfer portal. As it is, Duke only ranked 68th in Pass Success Rate. The problem they will have tonight is that they cannot lean on their rushing attack. The Blue Devils ranked 130th in Rush Success Rate — and they ranked 132nd in Line Yards. But the Duke defense should prevent this game from being a blowout. They have held eight of their 12 opponents to 21 or fewer points. The Blue Devils rank third in the nation in Havoc Rate — and they rank 10th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 30th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed — and they rank 18th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. Their defense comes into this game with perhaps an injury to a cornerback but no opt-outs or players in the transfer portal. Duke has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. This undermanned Blue Devils offense now faces one of the best defenses in the nation. Ole Miss held their opponents to just 315.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 13.9 Points-Per-Game. They have held nine of their last 12 opponents to no more than 20 points. Head coach Lane Kiffin made it a point to get bigger and faster on defense in the offseason so he added five transfers who were five-star or four-star recruits coming out of high school. The Rebels lead the nation with 52 sacks — and they also lead the nation in Havoc Rate. Additionally, they ranked sixth in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and ranked seventh in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They also ranked 14th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. As a 17-point favorite, a blowout win for Ole Miss is a concern — but they scored no more than 28 points in seven of their last eight games. There is some talk that Kiffin will want to put up a big number to make a statement about their not making the college football playoffs — but he had more incentive to send that message in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State since they still had the opportunity to impress the committee. The Rebels have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a bye week. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: In the 7 bowls Ole Miss has played with Kiffin as their head coach, 5 of those contests finished Under the Total. 10* CFB Duke-Ole Miss ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils (275) and the Mississippi Rebels (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273) in the Sugar Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-2) has won four games in a row after their 22-19 upset win against Texas as a 3-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game on December 7th. Notre Dame (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 27-17 win against Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a strange Georgia team this season. None of their players were consensus All-Americans which is a first for head coach Kirby Smart in his ninth year running the program. But the roster is still stacked with blue-chip talent — and they will be the more talented team on the field today. But what this team lacks in star power this season, it makes up for in grit. The Bulldogs have won four games this season after trailing or tied in the fourth quarter. The season-ending injury to quarterback Carson Beck is a tough blow — but the team still rallied from a 6-3 halftime deficit to beat Texas with sophomore Gunner Stockton under center. The loss of Beck will certainly remove any level of complacency for the rest of the roster — everyone has to step up. And it’s not like Stockton is a bum. He is a four-star recruit who college football analyst Phil Steele listed as his second-rated quarterback in the 2023 class. He completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards in the second half against the Longhorns. He is a dual-threat so expect him to be used in the ground game. The Bulldogs may have an initial edge in this game since offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has had almost a month to develop a new game plan specific to his skillset. He will lack the vertical threat in the passing game that Beck offered — but against the Fighting Irish whose strength is their secondary, perhaps that is a blessing in disguise. Besides, it’s not as if Georgia’s blueprint for success under Smart is a gunslinging quarterback. The program that has won national championships with Stetson Bennett and reached the championship game with Jake Fromm will be just fine if Stockton is only a vanilla Jake Fromm (which, I know, is redundant). With Nick Saban retired and Jim Harbaugh back in the NFL, Smart is hands down the best coach in college football — and that starts schematically and continues with preparation and then motivation. Now let’s talk about Marcus Freeman whose biggest victory in his three seasons as Notre Dame’s head coach was when they beat the Hoosiers 12 days ago. The only team that finished in the College Football Playoff Committee’s top 25 final rankings was Army — and that was before they got upset by Navy. While I don’t blame them for Texas A&M, USC, Florida State, and Louisville not meeting preseason expectations, I don’t give them a ton of credit for beating them either. The Fighting Irish are Flat Track Bullies whose physical style of play overwhelms most of their opponents — but now they play a team that is bigger, more skilled, and who play better competition on a week-to-week basis. And now they are without their best pass rusher after defensive tackle Rylie Mills’ season-ending injury against Indiana. Georgia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: If a college football team is playing in January, then they are likely to be big games (save for the few minor bowl games being played in the next few days). Georgia has played seven games in January under Smart — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of those 7 contests. Notre Dame has only played one game in January under Freeman — and they did not cover. The Bulldogs were built for this moment while the Irish are hoping they are prepared for the step up in competition. 25* CFB Playoff Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (271) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (272) in the Rose Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-2) won for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 42-17 victory against Tennessee as a 7-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. Oregon (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 45-37 victory against Penn State as a 3-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State found new life after their demoralizing loss to Michigan by making a statement in front of their home fans and the nation in their destruction of the Volunteers. I was on the wrong side in that one with one of the biggest reasons being the vulnerability of their banged-up offensive line against an outstanding Tennessee defensive front. But inserting left guard Luke Montgomery into the starting lineup and then rotating the embattled Tegra Tshabola with previous starting left guard Austin Siereveld at right guard. That worked wonders as quarterback Will Howard was not sacked once. Credit goes to Chip Kelly who constructed a game plan that got Howard to get the ball out fast to help protect him and the offensive line. The Buckeyes have renewed momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win by 17 or more points. I think the big edge comes in the coaching staff making adjustments for this rematch of Oregon’s 32-31 victory as a 3-point underdog on October 12th. Kelly has two stints as a head coach in the NFL — and he has coached in national championship games when he was running the Oregon program. That level of experience and savvy makes a difference. And then Buckeyes’ defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is one of the best in the business. He made a great adjustment after the Oregon game by moving nickel back Jordan Hancock to a single high safety role in his Cover-1 scheme. That opened up space for super start safety Caleb Downs to play all over the field including stunts up front. Ohio State has played three teams with an offense ranked in the top 25 according to the SP+ metrics by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Buckeyes held those three opponents to just 45 combined points. Oregon’s brain trust is simply not the same. Head coach Dan Lanning is lauded as one of the best minds in college football, but the 38-year old simply lacks experience in big games like this outside serving as Kirby Smart’s defensive coordinator at Georgia for three seasons. This is the Duck’s first playoff game under Lanning. They lost both their games against Washington last season. The win at home against Ohio State is his best win on his resume. Offensive coordinator Will Stein in his second year with the program after the 34-year old served as the offensive coordinator at UTSA. Defensive coordinator Josh Lupoi does have NFL experience along with a stint under Nick Saban as the defensive coordinator at Alabama — but he does not have the same talent level with his unit as Knowles does. The Ducks defense has regressed in the second half of the season. Penn State torched them for 518 yards of offense. They have called outside the top 50 in Contested Catches Allowed and Broken Tackles Allowed. They rank 92nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They only sacked Howard once in the first meeting. Lanning seems to realize this concern and managed games realizing he has to win shootouts with quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Oregon scores 35.9 Points-Per-Game and average 278.0 passing Yards-Per-Game. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 31 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Ohio State-Oregon ESPN Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (271) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (269) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (270) in the Peach Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football  Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 38-24 victory against Clemson as a 13.5-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. Arizona State (11-2) has won six games in a row after their 45-19 upset win against Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 7th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: I hate this spot for the Sun Devils. This was a team riding high with momentum with six straight victories that transformed their 5-2 season. Now they shake off the rust against a battle-tested Longhorns team who just played another big game 11 days ago. As it is, Arizona State is a team that was thriving off great starts. Except against Central Florida during their six-game winning streak, they raced out to a lead at the end of the first quarter by an average of +7.6 points — and they had leads of at least three touchdowns in three of those contests. Turnover luck has also played a role. They have 11 takeaways in their last six games with only two turnovers themselves — and that +9 net turnover margin leads the nation. Nothing like an extended break to wake up the Regression Gods. And this is a team that simply lacks big-game experience. Their highest-profile game was against the Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game — and while they did play their best game of the season in that contest, that was more likely an outlier than a feature of coming attractions. The Big 12 is now several notches below the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma switching conferences. Arizona State’s highest-profile victory in non-conference play was a 30-23 win against a Mississippi State team that was at the bottom of the SEC. And it is this lack of experience on the biggest stages where the team cohesion of a group assembled mostly through the transfer portal plays a role. Of the 40 players for second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham who logged-in at least 100 snaps this season, only two of these players were on the roster in December of 2022 at the end of the Herm Edwards era. This team is now without their best wide receiver Jordyn Tyson due to injury — he accounted for 20% of the total yardage for this team this season. Redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt is a gamer who punished Iowa State’s defense when they stacked the box to slow down running back Cam Skattebo — but now he faces a much stiffer test in the Longhorns’ secondary. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game. Texas is one of the most experienced teams in the nation when it comes to dealing with high stakes like this. They have 15 starters back from the team that lost to Washington in the College Football Semifinals last season — and they are the only team in this year’s playoff to have competed in the playoffs last year. They have already been through the gauntlet of playing Georgia twice this season — and they now benefit from playing in the first round of the playoffs last week. The Longhorns offense comes into this game with renewed confidence after generating 494 yards against a good Clemson defense. Texas should start fast being comfortable in this environment — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against non-conference opponents.  

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State needs to keep this game close so that they can continue to rely on Skattebo. They are not equipped to keep up with the Longhorns if they have to bank on Leavitt and their passing attack — especially now without their best wide receiver Tyson. The Sun Devils generate 200.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game from 4.8 yards-Per-Carry. Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams who generate 4.75 or more YPC. 20* CFB Texas-Arizona State ESPN Special with the Texas Longhorns (269) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (268) in the Fiesta Bowl and Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Penn State (12-2) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs with their 38-10 victory against SMU as a 9-point favorite on December 21st. Boise State (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-7 victory against UNLV as a four-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Penn State are flat track bullies that almost always take care of business in spots like this. Head coach James Franklin minimizes unnecessary risk-taking — which gives life to underdogs if the over-aggressiveness fails — and his teams tend to not beat themselves with mistakes. Their patience eventually gets rewarded — and their superior talent eventually begins to pull away on the scoreboard. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 22 of their 30 games under Franklin when favored by 10.5 to 21 points — and all of his teams in his head coaching career going back to his previous tenure at Vanderbilt have covered the point spread in 28 of their 37 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their 41 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December. What Penn State lacks in explosiveness, they make up for in ruthless efficiency. They rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate behind the one-two punch of running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They combined to rush for 293 yards against the Ducks. The passing game ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Broncos defense does rank 23rd in Havoc Rate and second in total sacks — but Nittany Lions’ quarterback Drew Allar has not thrown an interception in his 125 dropbacks when facing pressure. Penn State ranks 22nd by scoring touchdowns on 71.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. And Boise State may be giving in the Big Plays department since they rank 109th in Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 130th by allowing 7.6% of their opponent’s plays to result in 20 or more yards. One of the biggest problems is simply fundamental tackling which is an issue that seems to follow the Broncos defensive coordinator Erik Chinander wherever he goes. Their defense ranks second-to-last in Pro Football Focus’ Tackling Grade — and they are also second-to-last in broken and missed tackles after blowing 29 tackles in their last two games. Penn State is the wrong offense to make tackling mistakes with since it offsets the lack of speed they have at wide receiver which can make them too dependent on long drives. I do not like this spot for Boise State. As a Group of Five program, they do not get many opportunities to play in heavyweight matchups — and they may come into this game rusty having not played in 25 days. The Nittany Lions usually play Michigan and Ohio State every season — and they got a nice 10 days off for this game so they are relatively rested. Don’t be surprised if the Broncos are shellshocked early. They lack a signature victory this season having only three power conference opponents on their schedule. They do not recruit at the same level as top-tier Big Ten or SEC programs. Sophomore quarterback Maddux Madsen may have thrown 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions — but he only has nine Big-Time Throws and has committed 16 Turnover-Worthy Plays this season. It gets even worse under pressure where he has only one Big-Time Throw but eight Turnover-Worthy Plays. Now here comes the Nittany Lions loaded defensive line led by a future first-round NFL pick in defensive end Abdul Carter. I don’t put too much weight on their three-point loss at Oregon early in the season since the Ducks were still working out some early kinks with their offensive line. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight bowl games. 10* CFB Penn State-Boise State ESPN Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) and the Boise State Broncos (268) in the Fiesta Bowl and Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Penn State (12-2) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs with their 38-10 victory against SMU as a 9-point favorite on December 21st. Boise State (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-7 victory against UNLV as a four-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both teams should score their share of points tonight. No one has been able to slow down the Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty. San Diego State did everything they could to tempt Boise State into avoiding handing him the ball and relying on quarterback Maddux Nelson — but Jeanty still rushed for 149 yards from 4.8 Yards-Pe-Carry against stacked boxes. Jeanty ran for 192 yards from 7.7 YPC early in the season against Oregon. On paper, the Nittany Lions rank fourth in Opponent Line Yards Allowed — but they are only 45th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed in 43% of their carries. But digging deeper, those numbers may be propped up by the softer opponents on their schedule. USC ran for 186 yards against them before Ohio State rushed for 176 yards two weeks later. In the Big Ten Championship Game, Oregon rushed for 183 yards against them. Say what you want about Boise State not having the same level of talent on their offensive line (although injured center Mason Randolph returned in their last two games) — but Jeanty does so much of his work after the first contact. Almost 1900 of his 2497 rushing yards this season were after contact. The Broncos deploy outside zone reads much like the Ducks, as opposed to the inside zone, reads that SMU relied on. If Jeanty has success and can approach or eclipse the 176 rushing yards mark by the Buckeyes, that should unlock the Boise State passing attack. USC, Ohio State, and Oregon generated 6.3 Yards-Per-Play and scored 31.7 Points-Per-Game against this Nittany Lions defense. The Broncos rank fifth in the nation by scoring touchdowns in 76.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. They generate 251.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and Penn State has played 4 straight Overs against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. Boise State has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. What Penn State lacks in explosiveness, they make up for in ruthless efficiency. They rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate behind the one-two punch of running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They combined to rush for 293 yards against the Ducks. The passing game ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Broncos defense does rank 23rd in Havoc Rate and second in total sacks — but Nittany Lions’ quarterback Drew Allar has not thrown an interception in his 125 dropbacks when facing pressure. Penn State ranks 22nd by scoring touchdowns on 71.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. And Boise State may be giving in the Big Plays department since they rank 109th in Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 130th by allowing 7.6% of their opponent’s plays to result in 20 or more yards. One of the biggest problems is simply fundamental tackling which is an issue that seems to follow the Broncos defensive coordinator Erik Chinander wherever he goes. Their defense ranks second-to-last in Pro Football Focus’ Tackling Grade — and they are also second-to-last in broken and missed tackles after blowing 29 tackles in their last two games. Penn State is the wrong offense to make tackling mistakes with since it offsets the lack of speed they have at wide receiver which can make them too dependent on long drives. The Nittany Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by 28 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs away from home after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 8 straight games away from home Over the Total when the Total is set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 PPG — and Penn State has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. Boise State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) and the Boise State Broncos (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (412) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (411). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (6-9) has lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 29-17 upset loss at Miami as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (13-2) rebounded from their loss to Buffalo with a 34-17 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco will only be playing for pride tonight — but in their last home game of the season on Monday Night Football, they should be highly motivated to make a statement against the Lions before Detroit embarks on their playoff push. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home against fellow NFC rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 appearances on Monday Night Football. The 49ers have been playing better defense lately since the return of safety Talonoa Hufanga. They have held their last three opponents to just 281.7 total Yards-Per-Game since his return. The Niners rank fifth in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. At home, they are holding their opponents to 276.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 19.1 Points-Per-Game. The Lions are still ravaged by injuries. Running back David Montgomery is out. The defense is missing four critical starters with Adrian Hutchinson and Alim McNeill on the defensive line, linebacker Alex Anzalone, and cornerback Carlton Davis III all on the shelf. Green Bay and Buffalo averaged 39.5 Points-Per-Game against this battered unit this month. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a straight-up win against a fellow NFC North rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams winning 25-40% of their games including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last five games.  

FINAL TAKE: I could be wrong — but I just don’t think Lions head coach Dan Campbell is going to keep Jared Goff and other essential offensive players on the field for the entire game. I know he claimed that he was going to use all his starters throughout this game even if a win would not help their playoff positioning. After Minnesota’s (infuriating) two-point victory against Green Bay (+1.5) yesterday, the Lions take the top seed in the NFC playoffs only by beating the Vikings on Sunday. If Hendan Hooker plays a significant amount of time at quarterback tonight with backups on offense, then the 49ers as a home dog is sweeter than ever. Even if Campbell defies all logic and reason and plays his offensive first-string all night, I think the Niners keep this game close — but after losing two +3.5 underdogs in overtime this weekend, I am in no mood to risk my money solely on the prospect that Dan Campbell will resist his machismo. On the other hand, if I endorsed and invested in the Lions tonight — only to see Goff and company on the sidelines before the end of the first quarter, I would be apoplectic (especially after watching two favorites win games in overtime from touchdowns to cover -3.5 point spreads). The Regression Gods do even things out in the wash … sooner or later. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (412) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (411). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). THE SITUATION: Detroit (13-2) rebounded from their loss to Buffalo with a 34-17 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (6-9) has lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 29-17 upset loss at Miami as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: When the Total is set at 50 or higher, there are many routes for the game to finish Under the Total. A few stalled red zone drives. Turnovers. Long drives that burns significant time off the clock. One particular dynamic for this game is the prospect that the Lions head coach Dan Campbell will ultimately decide to rest his key players on offense. I’ll get to that in the Final Take. After giving up 382 yards to the Bears last week, Detroit needs to use this game to find some answers and develop some momentum on defense — so I do not expect any let up on that side of the football. The Lions did enjoy +2 net turnover margin against Chicago — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. Furthermore, while Detroit has played three straight Overs, they have then played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. And in their last 11 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, they have played 7 of those games Under the Total. San Francisco has been playing better defense lately since the return of safety Talonoa Hufanga. They have held their last three opponents to just 281.7 total Yards-Per-Game since his return. The Niners rank fifth in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The 49ers can be run on — they ran 24th in Run Defense DVOA. I suspect that the Lions will run the ball to get backup running back Craig Reynolds plenty of reps because they will need to use him in the postseason to give Jahmyr Gibbs some help — and that should mean longer drives (which also gets Detroit out of this game faster). San Francisco has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 276.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 19.1 Points-Per-Game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Lions are generating 6.4 Yards-Per-Play and 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt this season — and San Francisco has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.65 or more YPP and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 7.0 or more YPA. The 49ers have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total as a single-digit underdog under head coach Kyle Shanahan.

FINAL TAKE: I could be wrong — but I just don’t think Campbell is going to keep Jared Goff and other essential offensive players on the field for the entire game. I know he claimed that he was going to use all his starters throughout this game even if a win would not help their playoff positioning. After Minnesota’s (infuriating) two-point victory against Green Bay (+1.5) yesterday, the Lions take the top seed in the NFC playoffs only by beating the Vikings on Sunday. If Hendan Hooker plays a significant amount of time at quarterback tonight with backups on offense, then the final score hitting 50 becomes very difficult. Even if Campbell defies all logic and reason and plays his offensive first-string all night, I think the game stays below 50 combined points — but after losing two +3.5 underdogs in overtime this weekend, I am in no mood to risk my money solely on the prospect that Dan Campbell will resist his machismo. On the other hand, if I endorsed and invested in the Over tonight — only to see Goff and company on the sidelines before the end of the first quarter, I would be apoplectic (especially after watching two favorites win games in overtime from touchdowns to cover -3.5 point spreads). The Regression Gods do even things out in the wash … sooner or later. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will playing the Atlanta Falcons (413) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (414). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (8-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 34-7 victory against the New York Giants as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (10-5) has won three games in a row after their 36-33 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Commanders are ripe for an emotional letdown after rallying from a 21-7 deficit to shock the Eagles. NFL teams after beating Philadelphia are just 9-21-2 ATS including failing to cover the point spread in both games this season. Washington is a banged-up football team with starting safety Marshon Lattimore, starting right tackle Andrew Wylie, and two of their top three wide receivers, Dyami Brown and Noah Brown, are out for this game with injuries. Four of their last five victories have been by five points or less including three of those wins by a field goal or less. The Commanders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. Despite the spectacular plays from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, Washington’s offense has taken a step back lately as they rank only 16th in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play since Week Ten. The Commanders' defense has surrendered 26.5 Points-Per-Game in their last six games — and their biggest weakness has been against defending the run. Washington is surrendering 137.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they rank 29th in terms of league by surrendering 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. They rank 25th in Opponent EPA per rush attempt allowed and 25th in Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The Commanders also rank 24th in Opponent EPA per pass attempt allowed. Now here comes one of the best running backs in the league Bijan Robinson who rushed for 94 yards on 22 carries last week with two touchdowns. The Falcons were last in play-action pass rate with the immobile Kirk Cousins under center — but they dialed up play-action passes on 22% of their dropbacks last week with Michael Penix at quarterback. The rookie’s frontline numbers look pedestrian: he went 18 of 27 for 202 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. But digging deeper, he had 11% of his passes dropped including one by Kyle Pitts in the end zone (and his interception came later on that drive). He ranked ninth in EPA per dropback of all quarterbacks last week — and he ranked eighth in success rate. He did not take a sack. There was a lot to like. Under the radar, the Falcons defense is playing much better. Wince Week 13, Atlanta leads the league in Opponent EPA allowed — they rank fifth in Opponent EPA per rush attempt allowed and second in Opponent EPA per dropback allowed. And while the Falcons’ strength of schedule can be scrutinized during that span, it does include holding Justin Herbert to just 187 yards of offense. Since Week 15, the Falcons are second in the NFL by limiting their opponents to 241.5 total YPG and 4.0 Yards-Per-Play.

FINAL TAKE: Given the 14 MPH wind tonight in Washington, the passing game will be more difficult for both teams. It should be a heavy dose of the Atlanta rushing attack — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who are allowing at least 130 or more rushing YPG. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games under head coach Raheem Morris as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 20* NFL Atlanta-Washington NBC-TV Special with Atlanta Falcons (413) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (414). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (413) and the Washington Commanders (414). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (8-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 34-7 victory against the New York Giants as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (10-5) has won three games in a row after their 36-33 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders held the explosive Eagles offense to just 338 yards last week despite Philly’s  33 points in that game. We were on the Under for that game which got crushed — but both teams averaged only 353 Yards-Per-Game in that contest. Washington held Philadelphia to just 5.08 Yards-Per-Play which was far below their 5.9 YPP season average. We observed last week that Washington’s defense continued to improve under first-year head coach Dan Quinn. They had held each of their last two opponents to exactly 245 total yards and 19 points. Since surrendering 484 yards at Baltimore, the Commanders had since held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 332 total yards before their showdown with the Eagles. Their defense thrives at home where they went into last only giving up 4.7 Yards-Per-Play which is the second-lowest mark in the league and a big contrast to the 6.2 YPP they have given up when playing on the road. The Commanders are banged-up on offense with starting right tackle Andrew Wylie and two of their top three wide receivers, Dyami Brown and Noah Brown, out for this game with injuries. Despite the spectacular plays from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, their offense has taken a step back lately as they rank only 16th in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play since Week Ten. Washington had five turnovers last week and endured a -3 net turnover margin — and Quinn’s teams in his career have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win under head coach Raheem Morris. Under the radar, the Falcons defense is playing much better. Wince Week 13, Atlanta leads the league in Opponent EPA allowed — they rank fifth in Opponent EPA per rush attempt allowed and second in Opponent EPA per dropback allowed. And while the Falcons’ strength of schedule can be scrutinized during that span, it does include holding Justin Herbert to just 187 yards of offense. Since Week 15, the Falcons are second in the NFL by limiting their opponents to 241.5 total YPG and 4.0 Yards-Per-Play. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their 8 games Under the Total as an underdog with Morris as their head coach. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Given the 14 MPH wind tonight in Washington, the passing game will be more difficult for both teams. The Falcons have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (413) and the Washington Commanders (414). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (425) plus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (426). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-4) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last six games after their 34-0 victory at home against New Orleans as a 14-point favorite on Monday night. Minnesota (13-2) rides an eight-game winning streak after their 27-24 victory at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay is clicking on all cylinders right now having scored 30 or more points in five straight games. Quarterback Jordan Love has not thrown an interception in this span — and the Packers’ pivot to a power running team has not only helped Love by asking him to do less, but it has also helped their defense. Green Bay has held four of their last five opponents to 17 or fewer points. The Packers' defense now ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they rank third using their weighted Defensive DVOA numbers that privilege recent results. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games after scoring 30 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. The Packers enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Saints — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their previous game. Green Bay has covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or more games in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games if they have covered the point spread in five straight games in the head coach Matt LaFleur era. The Packers have covered the point spread in 25 of their 37 games as an underdog under LaFleur. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games in Weeks 16 or 17 under LaFleur. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games as an underdog including eight of their last eleven contests getting points on the road. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against fellow NFC rivals. Minnesota beat the Seahawks last week despite getting outgained by -63 net yards in that game. Despite their 13-2 record, the Vikings are only outgaining their opponents by +10.3 net Points-Per-Game. This team is reminding me of Kevin O’Connell’s squad in his rookie season as the team’s head coach with Kirk Cousins at quarterback when they went 13-4 in the regular season despite getting outgained in yardage. Minnesota has won eight of their nine games decided by one scoring possession. At home, the Vikings are outgaining their opponents by just +1.6 net PPG. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games at home when favored. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Weeks 16-17 under O’Connell. The Packers rank fourth in Rushing DVOA and are generating 147.3 rushing YPG — and the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay wants to avenge a 31-29 upset loss at home against Minnesota as a 2-point favorite on September 29th. The Packers outgained the Vikings by +91 net yards and put up 465 total yards against their defense — but Love was coming off an injury and threw three interceptions. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge under LaFleur. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (425) plus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (426). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (415) and the Los Angeles Rams (416). THE SITUATION: Arizona (7-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 36-30 upset loss in overtime at Carolina as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-6) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles only gained 242 yards of offense last week with quarterback Matthew Stafford only attempting 19 passes in that game. The Rams are running the ball more to protect their young defense. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They return home after completing a two-game road trip — and they have played 11 of their 15 games under head coach Sean McVay Under the Total after completing a two-game road trip. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when at home as the favorite. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Arizona has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on the road after a straight-up loss. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on turf. Furthermore, the Cardinals have a 25-13-1 Under mark when on the road with quarterback Kyler Murray under center.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is motivated to avenge a 41-10 loss at Arizona in a pick ‘em contest back on September 15th — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 10* NFL Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (415) and the Los Angeles Rams (416). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (415) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (416). THE SITUATION: Arizona (7-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 36-30 upset loss in overtime at Carolina as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-6) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona looked dejected last week after getting upset by the lowly Panthers. That loss eliminated them from the playoffs. Despite having nothing to play for, the Cardinals now have the opportunity to screw their rival — and that often provides more than enough motivation to step up their game. If there is any doubt about the mood of this team after losing to Carolina, look no further than running back James Conner who was not expected to play in this game earlier in the week due to a knee injury but now claims he is going to take the field. Don’t be surprised if Arizona plays their best game in weeks now that the pressure is off them — especially in a stand-alone prime-time game. As it is, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after suffering an upset loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. On the road, Arizona has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games as an underdog this season. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. Furthermore, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Here is another periodic reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. Los Angeles has won eight of their last ten games — but five of those victories have been by six points or less. With this line now reaching +7 in many spots, there is too much value on the dogs in this situation. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning three games in a row under head coach Sean McVay. And while they have covered the point spread in all four of their games during their current winning streak, they have then failed to cover the point spread after covering the point spread in four games in a row. The Rams return home after a two-game road trip — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after completing a two-game road trip under McVay. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is motivated to avenge a 41-10 loss at Arizona in a pick ‘em contest back on September 15th — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 opportunities to avenge a loss including all three games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road under McVay. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (415) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (416). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (411) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (412). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-6) saw their four-game winning streak end in a 34-27 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog back on December 19th. Cincinnati (7-8) has won three games in a row after their 24-6 win against Cleveland as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver head coach Sean Payton will have his team ready to play this afternoon. In his career, his teams have covered the point spread in 19 of their 23 games after a loss on the road. The Broncos also enjoy a three-day edge in rest and preparation after playing on Thursday of last week and the Bengals playing on a short week. Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 42 of their 63 games in his career when playing on extended rest including winning and covering the point spread in all three games with extended rest this season. Denver stays on the road this week where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games this season. Payton’s teams have a 33-16-1 ATS mark in his 50 games coached on the road — and while Cincinnati is scoring 28.2 Points-Per-Game this season, Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 29 of their 42 games on the road in his career when their opponent is averaging 24 or more PPG. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has played seven teams currently in the playoffs — and they have lost all seven games. In theory, their beleaguered defense has played better by only giving up 53 combined points in their last three games — but they also got three backup quarterbacks in their last three contests. In their three games against Baltimore, the Los Angeles Chargers, and Pittsburgh who were using their first-string quarterback, they surrendered 113 combined points and at least 34 points in each game. The Bengals' defense is banged up as well on their defensive line with Sheldon Rankins dealing with an illness and Sam Hubbard out with an injury. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are surrendering 359.9 Yards-Per-Game and 5.7 Yards-Per-Play. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who are giving up 240 or more YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams giving up 5.65 or more Yards-Per-Play. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (411) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (412). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (405) and the Chicago Bears (406). THE SITUATION: Seattle (8-7) has lost two games in a row after their 27-24 loss at home against Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (4-11) has lost nine games in a row after their 34-17 loss at home against Detroit as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Seahawks’ defense last week as they held the Vikings to just 298 total yards. Quarterback Geno Smith threw two interceptions and is playing through an injury. While he has 15 interceptions this season, only two of those picks were in games on the road. His offensive line is not helping as much lately since he is getting sacked once in every 12 dropbacks in his last five games. For the season, they have the ninth-highest Adjusted Sack Rate so don’t be surprised if their drives stall out. This looks like a game where Zach Charbonnet will get plenty of touches in a safe game plan against an overmatched Bears team with nothing to play for after being eliminated from the playoff race. Chicago is giving up 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are giving up 7.0 or more YPA. The Seahawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on grass. They have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Chicago has only scored more than 20 points once since their Week Seven bye week — and they are scoring just 15 Points-Per-Game during that span. Since interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown was elevated to interim head coach, the Bears are generating only 276.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 14.0 PPG in their three games. Now Brown has to prepare his team under circumstances that would challenge even the most experienced and savviest head coach. Not good, Bob. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And while Seattle averages 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Seahawks have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (405) and the Chicago Bears (406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (405) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (406). THE SITUATION: Seattle (8-7) has lost two games in a row after their 27-24 loss at home against Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (4-11) has lost nine games in a row after their 34-17 loss at home against Detroit as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: I am not scared to take ugly underdogs — as proven by my (incorrect) endorsement and investment in New Orleans on Monday. And I like to be contrarian to public sentiment. But the public wins a lot of the time  — and the sharps lose a lot of the time. For this game, the most compelling dynamic is my consideration of an overloaded and under-qualified interim head coach preparing his team on a second-straight short week for a Thursday night game against a non-divisional opponent — and one day after the Christmas holiday. I don’t blame Thomas Brown. His primary responsibility should be preparing rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. It was fine for Matt Eberflus to elevate him from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator when he fired Shane Waldron in that position. But the Bears should have made their special teams coordinator the interim head coach when they fired Eberflus at the end of November. Instead, they are asking Brown to take on two new major responsibilities he was not doing just six weeks ago. Chicago was still competitive under Eberflus. They lost at Green Bay, at home to Minnesota, and at Detroit on Thanksgiving by seven combined points. But the botched final drive against the Lions as time expired for yet another late-game mismanagement error was the final straw. Since that game, the Bears have been blown out 25, 18, and 17 points — all under Brown’s interim watch. Now Brown has to prepare his team under circumstances that would challenge even the most experienced and savviest head coach. Nope. As it is, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home after losing two games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing three games in a row. Additionally, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after allowing 30 or more points. And in their last 9 games as an underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those games. Seattle certainly took their preparation seriously this week since they are very much alive in the NFC playoff race. The Seahawks outgained the Vikings by +63 net yards after holding them to just 298 total yards — it was a -2 net turnover margin that did them in. Quarterback Geno Smith threw two interceptions — but he has been more reliable on the road this season. While he has 13 interceptions and an 85.8 Passer Rating in his nine games at home, he sports a 96.9 Passer Rating on the road with six touchdown passes and only two interceptions in his six games on the road. Seattle has won five of their six games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games away from home including their last four road games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against fellow NFC rivals. Additionally, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two games in a row. We bet numbers rather than teams — and it is worth mentioning here that road favorites have a 53-38 ATS record this season so I am comfortable laying a number that is less than a touchdown.

FINAL TAKE: If the Bears’ obstacles this week were not already overwhelming, they come off a game with the physical Lions team — and NFL teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of the 14 games this season after playing Detroit in the previous week. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (405) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (403) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (404). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four games after their 34-17 win against Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Houston (9-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 loss at Kansas City as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens held the Steelers to just 315 yards of offense last week as they continue to play much better on the defensive side of the football. I was worried about Baltimore’s defense heading into the season because of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over defense — but the 32-year-old had never called plays. Their defense last year was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. Predictably, things started slow for the Ravens' defense especially when defending the pass. Dak Prescott threw for 361 yards against them in Week Three. Two weeks later, Joe Burrow tore them up for another 359 yards. That’s when the ever-savvy John Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for Orr. That helped. And after Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 174.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 7.0 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s second-to-last pass defense giving up 259.4 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now. As it is, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as a favorite of up to seven points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Houston only managed 311 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Chiefs. Their offense is missing two key pieces with guard Shaq Mason out with an injury and wide receiver Tank Dell suffering his terrible season-ending leg injury that may end his career. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against fellow AFC rivals. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when not playing with additional rest before the game.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 8* NFL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (403) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (404). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four games after their 34-17 win against Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Houston (9-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 loss at Kansas City as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens held the Steelers to just 315 yards of offense last week as they continue to play much better on the defensive side of the football. I was worried about Baltimore’s defense heading into the season because of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over defense — but the 32-year-old had never called plays. Their defense last year was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. Predictably, things started slow for the Ravens' defense especially when defending the pass. Dak Prescott threw for 361 yards against them in Week Three. Two weeks later, Joe Burrow tore them up for another 359 yards. That’s when the ever-savvy John Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for Orr. That helped. And after Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 174.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 7.0 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s second-to-last pass defense giving up 259.4 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win versus an AFC North rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after a victory against a divisional rival. Not surprisingly given Harbaugh’s penchant for making positive changes as the season moves on, Baltimore has played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total in Weeks 16 and 17. Houston only managed 311 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Chiefs. Their offense is missing two key pieces with guard Shaq Mason out with an injury and wide receiver Tank Dell suffering his terrible season-ending leg injury that may end his career. But the Texans' defense should keep them competitive in this game as they lead the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Houston should keep Baltimore’s Derrick Henry in relative check. They rank second in Opponent Adjusted Line Yards Allowed — and they stuff opposing rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage 19% of the time. They held Detroit’s dynamic duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry from 31 attempts earlier this season — and De’Von Achane to just 3.4 YPC. The Texans have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record under head coach DeMeco Ryans.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that range. Lastly, the Texans have played straight home games Under the Total when the Total set is set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (223) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (224) in the Hawai’i Bowl. THE SITUATION: South Florida (6-6) had won two games in a row before their 35-28 upset loss at Rice as a 5.5-point favorite on November 30th. San Jose State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-31 win against Stanford as a 2.5-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played at the Clarence T.C. Ching Field in Honolulu, Hawai’i.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulls experienced an instant and incredible turnaround last season in the first year under new head coach Alex Golesh by posting a 7-6 record that culminated in a triumphant 45-0 blowout victory against Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. Golesh inherited a program that went just 4-29 in the three seasons under previous head coach Jeff Scott and who had lost 33 of their last 34 games against FBS opponents since 2019. The former Tennessee offensive coordinator installed a simple but effective up-tempo offense that ranks seventh in pace of play this season. He should have his team very motivated to close this season out with another bowl victory to secure a second-straight 7-6 campaign to help with recruiting. The Bulls do have three starters on defense in the transfer portal and not on the depth chart for this game: defensive tackle Doug Blue-Eli, safety Tawfiq Byard, left guard Andrew Kilfoyl. Quarterback Byrum Brown is listed as questionable to return after being out with an injury since Week Five. He has taken part in practices — but I am still comfortable with investing in the Bulls if it is sophomore Bryce Archie under center. With Golesh as their head coach, South Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. They have also covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games played after a bye week. Furthermore, the Bulls have covered the point spread in 4 straight games away from home when listed in the +/- 3-point range under Golesh. San Jose State faces the more significant loss of players with star wide receiver Nick Nash opting out to prepare for the NFL draft. He received 37% of the targets and 35% of the yards — so his loss is significant. Center Hudson Mesa is also opting out which leaves their porous offensive line even more suspect. The Spartans are also losing two starters on defense who entered the transfer portal: cornerbacks D.J. Harvey and Michael Dansby. First-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo had a great bowl record in his 15-year tenure previously at Navy — but his teams in his head coaching career have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 8 games played on a neutral field when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Perhaps it is something about the favorites in the Hawai’i Bowl getting distracted by the environment but underdogs in this bowl game have pulled off upsets and covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 incarnations of this game. 8* CFB South Florida-San Jose State ESPN Special with South Florida Bulls (223) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (131) and the Green Bay Packers (132). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-19 loss against Washington as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (10-4) has won four of their last five games after their 30-13 win at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints were competitive with the Commanders last week despite only gaining 245 total yards in that game. But the New Orleans did a nice job of slowing down Washington phenom quarterback Jayden Daniels by holding the Commanders to just 326 yards of offense despite them being on the field for over 40 minutes of that game. The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. This is a team that has played 4 of their 5 games Under the Total since interim head coach Darren Rizzi took over for Dennis Allen. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have played 4 straight Unders on Monday Night Football. And in their last 11 games in December, they have played 9 of these games Under the Total. A dome team with a rookie at quarterback, Spencer Rattler, playing without running back Alvin Kamara and their top two wide receivers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheen) now playing outside in cold weather does not excite me. Green Bay ranks sixth in the NFL in Opponent’s Expected Points Added per play Allowed this season. Since returning from their bye week, they rank in the top five in the league in both Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and by holding their opponents to just 3.42 Yards-Per-Carry. The Packers have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total after winning on the road in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home after a win by 14 or more points. Green Bay has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering four or more games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home after playing their last two games on the road where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after completing a two-game road trip. Furthermore, the Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 18 of their last 23 games on the road Under the Total when playing in prime-time — and they have played 15 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with extra rest of at least seven days between games. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with the Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (131) and the Green Bay Packers (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (131) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (132). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-19 loss against Washington as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (10-4) has won four of their last five games after their 30-13 win at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: My regular reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. Hold your nose if you want to after backing this New Orleans team ravaged with injuries — but it was only yesterday when New England covered the point spread as a 14-point underdog on the road against the supposedly invincible Buffalo Bills. Home favorites laying double-digits have won eight of those last 12 games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of those 12 games after the Bills escaped with a 24-21 win against the Patriots yesterday. Double-digit home favorites against conference opponents have a 39-12 record straight-up — but they are 19-31-1 ATS in those 51 games. Double-digit favorites in prime-time games are just 33-56-2 ATS in those last 91 games — and double-digit favorites on Monday Night Football are 13-32 ATS in those last 45 games. Prime-time underdogs getting 14 or more points have covered the point spread on 7 straight occasions going back to 2017. Back to the Saints, interim head coach Darren Rizzi has his players playing hard for him — he is not the first special teams coach to get his team to rally around him after the head coach got fired midseason (the Raiders Nick Bisaccia comes to mind after Jon Gruden got fired a few years ago). Rookie Spencer Rattler gets the start at quarterback — and he is highly motivated to audition for the team’s full-time starter. Green Bay is dealing with some injuries on their defense with safety Javon Bullard and linebacker Quay Walker out tonight and safety Evan Williams and cornerback Jaire Alexander questionable. The Packers have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 51 home games — but they are just 3-3 ATS in their six games under head coach Matt LaFleur when playing at home as a double-digit favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The last two favorites laying 13 or more points on Monday Night Football have gotten upset outright. Miami was upset laying -13.5 points last year at home against Tennessee — and Cincinnati upset Pittsburgh as a +14.5 point underdog in 2022. Double-digit favorites on Monday Night Football are just 10-26-2 ATS in those last 38 situations — and favorites laying -13 or more points on Monday Night Football are just 1-7-1 ATS in those last nine games with those favorites failing to cover the spread by an average of 7.4 points. I’m not calling for the upset — just happy to see the Saints lose by ten points! 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (131) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (130) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 30-14 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (8-6) has won four games in a row after their 40-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay had been beating up on lesser competition — but scoring 40 points against the tough Chargers defense raised eyebrows. But this is a very difficult scheduling stretch of games playing on the road for a second straight week after their cross-country jaunt to the West Coast — and this is their fourth game on the road in their last five games. They are vulnerable to a letdown in this spot. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and head coach Todd Bowles' teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after pulling off an upset win in his career going back this initial tenure with the New York Jets. Tampa Bay has won two straight games by double-digits — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Bowles’ teams are just 3-6-1 ATS in their 10 games when they are favored after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Cowboys are surrendering 27.1 Points-Per-Game, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams who are allowing 24 or more PPG. Dallas is eliminated from the NFC playoff race which was something that was all but official after dropping to 3-7 this season in a loss to Houston and with the injured quarterback Dak Prescott out the season. But the removal of the constant pressure to meet (unreasonable) Super Bowl expectations seems to have liberated this team as they are playing looser and better. Getting defensive end Micah Parsons back from injury certainly helps. Since his return in Week 10, the Cowboys lead the NFL with 24 sacks and they rank eighth in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. Buccaneers’ quarterback tears apart opposing defenses when throwing from a clean pocket where he has a 111.7 Passer Rating this season. But when under pressure, Mayfield sees his Passer Rating drop to a 62.8 mark this season. A schematic change on offense has made a difference as well with head coach Mike McCarthy elevating Rico Dowdle to the primary running back while asking less of quarterback Cooper Rush. In his last four games, Dowdle is averaging 21.5 rush attempts per game which has resulted in 119.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game and 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Since taking on this elevated role in Week Nine, he is second in the NFL by averaging +4.2 Yards After Contact — and he leads all running backs in Rushing Success Rate. In a five-game stretch beginning with Rush passing for 354 yards against the Texans, Rush has nine touchdown passes and only two interceptions — and he has averaged a healthy 236.8 passing YPG in those five games. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning on the road in their previous game. Admittedly, the AT&T Stadium has been a House of Horrors this season for the Cowboys — but we bet numbers rather than teams and there are some reasons for optimism. The Buccaneers are giving up 244 passing YPG — and Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home against teams who are giving up 235 or more passing YPG. Tampa Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.5 YPC — and the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home against teams who are giving up 4.5 or more YPC. The Buccaneers are 21st in the league in YPC allowed from running backs.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 12 of their 17 games in December under McCarthy’s leadership. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (130) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-2) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 48-42 upset loss at home against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (4-10) has lost eight games in a row after their 30-12 loss at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago only managed 284 yards on Monday in their loss to the Vikings. Interim head coach Thomas Brown is simply over his head right now. Don’t blame him — he was the passing game coordinator earlier this season before becoming the interim offensive coordinator when Shane Waldron was fired. His main responsibility had been to work with rookie Caleb Williams to get him prepared each week. That is probably the most important job in the organization right now. Not only is he now running the offense, he has head coaching responsibilities — and this is simply not helping put Williams in the best position to succeed. The Bears have scored only 25 combined points in their last two games. They have scored more than 20 points only once in their last seven games. Chicago has played 4 straight Unders after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit needs to get back to a ball-control attack on offense given all their injuries on defense. The temperature will be in the 30s this afternoon at Soldier Field — and quarterback Jared Goff is not nearly as effective when playing in colder weather. In his career when playing in temperates no higher than 40 degrees, he is completing only 59.8% of his passes with an 83.5 Passer Rating. He averages only 236.9 passing Yards-Per-Game and just 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in that cold weather which are numbers far below his 261.0 passing YPG and 7.5 YPA career averages. The Lions have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss at home. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on grass. Furthermore, they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when on the road as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: When these teams played on Thanksgiving, Detroit won at home by a 23-20 score. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (12-2) has won ten games in a row after their 27-13 win against Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (9-5) has won two games in a row after their 20-19 victory at New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The stout Eagles defense held the Steelers to just 163 yards of offense last week. During their ten-game winning streak, Philadelphia has 14 takeaways and has held their opponents to just 15 Points-Per-Game. Since rookie cornerback Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup for a base nickel defense, this unit has been outstanding. There usually is a learning curve when players first begin working for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, but his concepts in his first year with the Eagles are beginning to gel — and he is unlocking the talents of the young players drafted from Georgia that had been underachieving a bit until now. After ranking tenth in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders through Week 10, they have since risen to number one in that category. Philly lead the league by giving up only 172 passing Yards-Per-Game and they rank seventh in rushing defense by giving up 102.2 rushing YPG. They are one of just four defenses since 2010 to have not given up more than 2500 passing yards and 1500 rushing yards after Week 14. The Eagles have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Philadelphia goes back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a road favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Washington’s defense continues to improve under first-year head coach Dan Quinn. They have held each of their last two opponents to exactly 245 total yards and 19 points. Since surrendering 484 yards at Baltimore, the Commanders have since held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 332 total yards. Their defense thrives at home where they are only giving up 4.7 Yards-Per-Play which is the second-lowest mark in the league and a big contrast to the 6.2 YPP they given up when playing on the road. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 31 passes against the Saints but for only 226 yards which was the second most passing yards he has thrown for in the last six games. The narrative that the league catches up to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s schemes in the second half of the season — and that he fails to adapt — continues to see evidence supporting it grow. When Daniels faced this Eagles defense for Thursday Night Football on November 14th, he only threw for 191 yards and generated just 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt which was his second-lowest mark in any game he finished this season. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Washington has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Furthermore, in Quinn’s head coaching career, his teams have played 6 of their 7 games Under the Total as a home dog — and his teams have played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles won the first meeting with the Commanders by a 26-18 score last month — and Washington has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Quinn’s teams have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (217) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (218) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 36-23 victory at Vanderbilt as a 10-point favorite on November 30th. Ohio State (10-2) picks themselves off the mat after their 13-10 upset loss at home to Michigan as a 19.5-point favorite on November 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Some pundits — like former Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer — were claiming in August that this Buckeyes team may have the best roster in the history of college football. Cut to four months later — and while the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, they have significant issues at quarterback and on the offensive line. I was always a bit skeptical of Kansas State transfer Will Howard. Howard was losing reps to Avery Johnson late last year and he struggled with his deep passes in spring practice with the Buckeyes. He only completed 61% of his passes last season while throwing 10 interceptions. Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse as he became the scapegoat for the loss at Michigan last year — but there is a good argument to be had that he was and is the better quarterback over Howard. McCord ranked seventh in the nation in Total Quarterback Rating while Howard ranked 23rd in that metric. Howard completed only 19 of 33 passes against the Wolverines three weeks ago and threw two interceptions. He is not the best game manager and delivery mechanism to unlock all the dynamic talent the Buckeyes enjoy at wide receiver. Clearly, head coach Ryan Day did not trust Howard against Michigan and assumed their defense would bail them out. But the even bigger concern is with their banged-up offensive line. Starting left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury in the Oregon game. Center Seth McLaughlin, their prized transfer from Alabama, suffered a season-ending injury in November. These injuries exposed the depth and talent issues the Buckeyes have with this unit. The dirty little secret is that offensive line coach Justin Frye is not getting the job done. In his third year with the program after coming over from UCLA where he held the same position for Chip Kelly (who now is the offensive coordinator for his former pupil, Day), he is failing to develop the players he has recruited. Even worse, recruiting is down. Only one of his players, sophomore Luke Montgomery, was ranked in the top 100 players overall. The average rank of his 2024 offensive line class was 320.5 at 247 Sports Composite which is way below the other position rooms at Ohio State. Michigan registered four tackles for loss and 13 quarterback pressures against this group — and their star running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson combined to run for only 67 yards in that game. Not only are the Buckeyes down their top two linemen now, but there are also two weak links on the line after left guard Austin Siereveld and right guard Tegra Tshabola got exposed by Michigan. It looks like Montgomery will get his first career start tonight at left guard while Tshabola (rated the team’s worst-rated pass blocker and run blocker by Pro Football Focus) may split time with Siereveld at right guard. Maybe this is an upgrade — but cohesion and chemistry now become bigger concerns as well. This group may now have to face the best defensive line in the nation — and with a rotation that goes ten deep. James Pearce, Jr. anchors the unit — and the first-team All-SEC defensive end may be one of the top ten picks in the next NFL draft. The ability and the willingness to rotate these defensive linemen will give Tennessee a big edge late in this game. Meyer thinks the Buckeyes' game plan has to be to rely on quick passes on nearly every down to neutralize the Volunteers' huge edge at the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, the cold weather in the low-20s with some wind gusts up to 15 MPH will make this challenge even more difficult. Tennessee freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has an 11-2 record as a starter after winning last year’s Citrus Bowl against the stout Iowa defense by a 35-0 score — and he led the Volunteers to a win against Alabama. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. Under head coach Josh Heupel, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their 19 games against teams outside the SEC. And while the Buckeyes hold their opponents to just 2.95 Yards-Per-Carry, the Vols have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who do not allow more than 3.25 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: I certainly considered the bounce-back factor for Ohio State to get the bad taste out of their mouth after the humiliating loss to the Wolverines — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game. Even worse, in the 4 games after an upset loss in Day’s tenure, the Buckeyes failed to cover the point spread 3 times. Like the teenage boys going to spring break wearing Big Johnson t-shirts, Day seems to hope that he just mentions how tough his team is a few dozen more times (and maybe even challenge octogenarian Lou Holtz into a fight), that this will manifest toughness in his players. The toughness problem is now with his players — so I remain skeptical that he is the galvanizing leader equipped for this moment. 10* CFB Tennessee-Ohio State ABC-TV Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (217) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (215) and the Texas Longhorns (216) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-3) has won four of their last five games after their 34-31 upset win against SMU as a 2.5-point underdog in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Texas (11-2) had won five games in a row before their 22-19 upset loss in overtime against Georgia as a 3-point favorite on December 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Steve Sarkisian has reigned in his offensive play-calling as the season has moved on — this appears to be a reflection of his thoughts on quarterback Quinn Ewers. Since his 43 attempts in the Longhorns' first meeting with the Bulldogs on October 13th, Ewers did not throw more than 37 times in his next five games — and he averaged only 31 attempts per game during that stretch. But in the rematch against Georgia, Ewers was asked to throw the ball 46 times because the running game did not get any traction against the Bulldogs’ defensive front. Texas only gained 31 rushing yards from 28 carries. Ewers did throw for 358 yards but he also threw two interceptions. He has nine interceptions on the season. In the overtime session, Sarkisian was dialing up safe but frustratingly ineffective fade routes — and that seemed to be indicative of a lack of trust in Ewers. Too often, Ewers floats his throws. He also struggles to throw the ball to make his receivers separate and get open. These weaknesses in his game limit the viable options Sarkisian can use in his playbook. Ewers lacks mobility as well. It is telling that the Longhorns did not score more than 20 points in three of their last four games. But their defense remains elite. They limited Georgia to just 277 yards of offense. The 22 points they gave up (after overtime) were the third most points they have surrendered all season. They held ten of their opponents to 17 points or less. For the season, they only gave up 249.9 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 12.5 Points-Per-Game. Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They have also played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Clemson only gained 326 yards of offense in their upset win against SMU. The Tigers' offense has hit a wall when facing top-level competition. In their two games against SEC opponents, Georgia and South Carolina, they only scored 17 combined points. They failed to score more than 24 points on five occasions this season.  Clemson generated 454.9 total YPG which resulted in 35.5. PPG — but those numbers drop by -70.9 YPG and -8.2 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Tigers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow ACC rival. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Mustangs — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Clemson’s defense remains very good led by several talented sophomores. They held eight of their opponents to no more than 20 points. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns score 33.6 PPG — and Clemson has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. Texas has played 5 straight Unders against teams who score 31 or more PPG. 25* CFB Playoff First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (215) and the Texas Longhorns (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (211) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Indiana (11-1) bounced back from their loss to Ohio State with a 66-0 victory against Purdue as a 29-point favorite to conclude their regular season on November 30th. Notre Dame (11-1) rides a ten-game winning streak after their 49-35 win at USC as a 7-point favorite to complete their regular season on November 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The challenging aspect of assessing this Indiana is determining just how good they are after playing a schedule that had only two teams finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top fifty. With head coach Curt Cignetti bringing with him 13 players from his James Madison squad from last year, are these Hoosiers just a glorified, albeit talented, Group of Five opponent — or does the mix of 30 transfers onto a Power Five/Four conference roster enough to make this group a legitimate contender against the best teams in the country. I thought their 20-15 win against Michigan was impressive. While the Wolverines were held back by the lack of a quality quarterback, they were good to outstanding everywhere else on the field — and that is why they upset Ohio State in Columbus. The Michigan defense remained elite all season. If the Hoosiers lose that game, then Alabama probably takes their spot in the playoff. But Kurtis Rourke — a 24-year-old quarterback with tons of experience — led them down the field in key drives to withstand the pressure and win that game. Indiana’s 38-15 loss at Ohio State exposed some warts — but the Buckeyes’ have much more future NFL talent level than what the Fighting Irish bring to this game. Even still, the Hoosiers held the Buckeyes explosive offense to just 316 total yards — and the Buckeyes ran for just 115 yards on 29 carries. Interestingly, Indiana only trailed Ohio State by a 14-7 score going into halftime — and the combined first-half scores in both games put the Hoosiers up by a 24-17 margin. That is a reflection of how well Cignetti and his coaching staff prepared this team for those showdowns. It was in the second half that things went south with them getting outscored by a 36-11 margin in both games. But if something similar happens tonight and Indiana starts out well, then I suspect the humongous pressure that Notre Dame faces in this game begins to weigh heavily. This Fighting Irish has no claim on playing a more difficult schedule. Under head coach Marcus Freeman, they have been flat-track bullies — but I continue to wonder what the biggest win has been for this team with him as a head coach. Nine of their victories during their ten-game winning streak were by 14 or more points. Was the biggest victory in Freeman’s tenure that opening victory at Texas A&M this season. If that is not the one, then it probably prior wins against less-than-stellar Clemson or USC teams. Seriously. And there are always these bad clunkers along the way in pressure moments. After upsetting the Aggies, the Fighting Irish returned home to get upset by Northern Illinois despite being a four-touchdown favorite. They got upset as a double-digit favorite against Marshall and Stanford in his first season coaching the Irish. They laid eggs and blew their chance at the College Football Playoffs with clunkers against Louisville and Clemson last year. Even in their 49-35 win against the Trojans to end the season, they needed a 99-yard and a 100-yard interception returned for touchdowns to flip the script and pull away. USC (and former UNLV) quarterback Jayden Maiava passed for 360 yards against them — and the Trojans generated 557 yards overall in the loss. I am a Riley Leonard skeptic — and the Notre Dame quarterback saw only 13% of his completions go for more than 20 yards this season, ranking 116th in the nation. The weather will contribute to a lack of explosive plays tonight. The Fighting Irish’s last two opponents ran for 197 and 207 yards against them.

FINAL TAKE: The temperature will be in the 20s in South Bend tonight with the wind chill dropping into the teens. I suspect the Hoosiers keep this a close game in the first half — and when the realization that another big upset may be brewing on Freeman’s watch, I expect things will get very tight. I give the edge at quarterback and coaching to Indiana. Cignetti will have this team ready and prepared to win — schematically and emotionally. His teams have covered the point spread in 11 of their 15 games on the road and 5 of their 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range in his career. 10* CFB Indiana-Notre Dame ABC-TV Special with Indiana Hoosiers (211) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (124) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (123). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 40-17 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (9-5) has won four games in a row after their 31-13 win against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS THE POINTS: The Chargers played their worst game of the season on Sunday in their 23-point loss at home to the Buccaneers. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing two or more games in a row. Despite their recent slide, head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team can still clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win tonight. Quarterback Justin Herbert is 6-0-1 ATS in his seven starts coming off a loss by double-digits. Los Angeles should bounce back on defense after getting carved by Baker Mayfield in explosive plays. They are still only giving up 17.6 Points-Per-Game which is tied for the best mark in the league. They rank ninth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games at home when favored this season. Furthermore, in Harbaugh’s career as a head coach in the NFL, his teams have covered the point spread in 25 of their 34 games when favored by three to seven points. Denver only gained 193 yards last week despite scoring 31 points. One of their touchdowns came from a 50-yard fumble recovery. Rookie Bo Nix only threw for 130 yards in that game — and he has five interceptions in his last two weeks after throwing three picks against the Colts. Now the Broncos' offense will be without running back Jaleel McLaughlin who is out with an injury — and head coach Sean Payton has been relying on him as his go-to back in crunch time lately. Much of the success of the offense this season against the bottom-tiered defenses in the league. In their five games against teams that rank in the top 13 in Defensive DVOA, they are only scorn 13.2 PPG. Their offensive numbers are propped up by scoring 30 PPG in their other nine games against bottom 19 teams in Defensive DVOA. Their defense has been a bit of mirage given their friendly strength of schedule. Using the Adjusted DVOA metrics for opposing offenses, the Broncos have faced the 30th most difficult schedule for their defense. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road after a straight-up win in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Broncos go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their two previous games at home. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers won the first meeting between these teams by a 23-16 score as a 3-point favorite in Denver by a 23-16 score. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (124) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-5) has won four games in a row after their 31-13 win against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (8-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 40-17 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers had averaged 27 Points-Per-Game during a five-game stretch until running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending torn MCL injury. Los Angeles has since scored only 17 points in each of their three games since losing him for the year. They generated only 206 yards of offense last week in their blowout loss to the Buccaneers. In his last four games, quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked once in every nine dropbacks — and he is now dealing with an ankle injury that is slowing him down. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Los Angeles should bounce back on defense after getting carved by Baker Mayfield in explosive plays. They are still only giving up 17.6 Points-Per-Game which is tied for the best mark in the league. They rank ninth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Los Angeles has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with six days or less between games. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Denver only gained 193 yards last week despite scoring 31 points. One of their touchdowns came from a 50-yard fumble recovery. Rookie Bo Nix only threw for 130 yards in that game — and he has five interceptions in his last two weeks after throwing three picks against the Colts. Now the Broncos' offense will be without running back Jaleel McLaughlin who is out with an injury — and head coach Sean Payton has been relying on him as his go-to back in crunch time lately. Much of the success of the offense this season against the bottom-tiered defenses in the league. In their five games against teams that rank in the top 13 in Defensive DVOA, they are only scoring 13.2 PPG. Their offensive numbers are propped up by scoring 30 PPG in their other nine games against the bottom 19 teams in Defensive DVOA. Denver’s defense has been outstanding this season as they lead the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. They have given up the fewest explosive plays this season — and their 14.8% stuff rate of opposing rushing attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage is the fifth-best mark in the league. The Broncos are surrendering only 17.6 PPG — and Harbaugh-coached NFL teams have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 19.0 PPG. Denver has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, in Payton’s head coaching career, his teams have played 13 of their 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 5 straight games at home against divisional rivals. They have played 12 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against division opponents when favored. These two teams have played 10 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (203) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (204) in the LA Bowl. THE SITUATION: California (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 38-6 loss at SMU as a 12.5-point underdog on November 30th. UNLV (9-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 21-7 loss at Boise State as a 4-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal head coach Justin Wilcox was on the hot seat entering the 2023-24 season but he oversaw his team rally when their record fell to 3-6 by winning three straight games to become bowl-eligible before losing to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl by a 34-14 score. It has been a challenge this season for a team on the west coast playing many of their games on the East Coast in their first year in the ACC. But Wilcox got this group to a second straight bowl game with six wins — and now this game is an opportunity to for the Golden Bears to win their first bowl game in five seasons. There are questions at quarterback after Fernando Mendoza entered the transfer portal and backup Chandler Rogers is questionable to play after getting injured in the game against the Mustangs. Wilcox has gotten more aggressive in the transfer portal with an Admissions Office that has been more cooperative regarding their rigorous academic standards. He brought in C.J. Harris in the portal who did have some starting experience as a backup to Kurtis Rourke at Ohio. He has split reps with freshman E.J. Caminong. This game may be an opportunity for running back Jaydn Ott to re-establish himself after an underwhelming injury-riddled season. He rushed for 1305 yards last season. One of the priorities for Wilcox this season was to reverse the negative slide on the defensive side of the ball after the defense did not play up to Wilcox’s expectations last year by ranking 111th and 102nd in the nation by surrendering 32.8 Points-Per-Game and 414.1 Yards-Per-Game. This season, Cal gave up only 341.3 total YPG which resulted in 22.2 PPG. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by 17 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents. UNLV has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing to a Mountain West Conference rival. The Rebels are a program that is very much in flux after Barry Odom departed to take the Purdue head coaching job after two seasons in Las Vegas. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion will not call plays tonight after he was passed over for the head coaching job when the administration hired Dan Mullen. Wide receivers coach Del Alexander is the interim head coach for this game. It appears unlikely that wide receiver Ricky White or strong safety Jalen Catalon will play in this game since they are likely to turn to the NFL. After a flat effort in the MWC Championship Game and the disruption in their coaching staff, UNLV is a shaky favorite in this game.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points in Wilcox’s tenure. 8* CFB California-UNLV ESPN Special with the California Golden Bears (203) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Frisco Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (199) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (200). THE SITUATION: Memphis (10-2) has won three straight games and seven of their last eight contests after their 34-24 upset victory at Tulane as a 12.5-point underdog on November 28th. West Virginia (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 52-15 loss at Texas Tech as a 2.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers generated 454 yards of offense against what had been a pretty good Green Wave defense. Led by senior quarterback Seth Henigan playing in his last game for Memphis tonight, the offense should light up a vulnerable Mountaineers defense. They have scored at least 33 points eight times this season. The Tigers have played 11 straight games Over the Total after beating a conference rival in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Overs after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored. West Virginia will be playing for offensive coordinator Chad Scott who was tapped as the interim head coach for this game after Neal Brown was fired after their embarrassing loss at Texas Tech. The Mountaineers’ players should be motivated to play well as their first opportunity to audition for Rich Rodriguez who was hired to return to the program as their head coach. The offense should be fine — they gained 423 yards against the Red Raiders but were held back by a -2 net turnover margin. They had scored 31 or more points in four straight contests before that game — and they have scored 31 or more points eight times this season. Garrett Greene is a senior dual-threat quarterback who put up better numbers last season — but he can still operate a competent offense. What got Brown fired was the play of their defense that ranked 133rd in the nation in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed. Overall, they surrendered 410.8 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 31.1 Points-Per-Game. That unit will be far from full strength with many of their players expected to opt out of this game before kick-off as they enter the transfer portal. The Mountaineers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: West Virginia has a dynamic Thunder and Lightning duo at running back with C.J. Donaldson and Jaheim White — they generate 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry as a team. Memphis has played 7 straight games Over the Total against teams who average 4.75 or more YPC. 8* CFB Memphis-West Virginia Frisco Bowl ABC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the Frisco Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (199) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (481) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) has lost seven games in a row after their 38-13 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (11-2) has won six games in a row after their 42-21 win against Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: It is time for another reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. It is tough to take Chicago tonight given all their problems and how bad they looked against a 49ers team that was completely inept on offense last Thursday against the Los Angeles Rams. Interim head coach Thomas Brown simply has too much on his plate after first being elevated to be the interim offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron before taking over the head coaching duties when Matt Eberflus was sacked. His primary responsibility should be to prepare his rookie quarterback Caleb Williams since he is the future of the franchise. But I do think Brown hit the bottom last week regarding his learning curve and he should better prepare and lead the team this week. Facing a divisional rival that they played less than a month ago should help. Remember that before their bad loss at San Francisco, they lost to Green Bay, these Vikings, and then at Detroit on Thanksgiving by a combined seven points — and they were in a position to win or go into overtime late in the game in all three of those contests. Chicago has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after the first month of the season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road against fellow NFC North rivals. Minnesota has been fortunate to win seven of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. They are only outgaining their opponents by +13.3 net Yards-Per-Game which is akin to a team with a 7-6 record after 13 games. All six of their games during their current winning streak have been against teams with a losing record. They only have three games against teams that would currently make the playoffs. The Vikings rushing attack only ranks 24th in Expected Points Added per play — and their offensive line has taken a step back since Cam Robinson replaced the injured Christian Darrisaw at left tackle. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games at home when favored. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 25-40% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings won the first meeting between these two teams with a 30-27 victory in Chicago as a 3-point favorite on November 24th — but the Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (481) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) has lost seven games in a row after their 38-13 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (11-2) has won six games in a row after their 42-21 win against Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears gained only 162 yards of offense last week against the 49ers’ defense. Interim head coach Thomas Brown simply has too much on his plate after first being elevated to be the interim offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron before taking over the head coaching duties when Matt Eberflus was sacked. His primary responsibility should be to prepare his rookie quarterback Caleb Williams since he is the future of the franchise. Chicago has scored more than 20 points only once in their last seven games. On the road, they are generating only 283.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Williams averages only 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt when on the road which ranks 30th in the league. The Vikings rank in the top-ten in deploying zone defenses against pass under defensive coordinator Brian Flores — and Williams ranks 30th in Passer Rating when facing zone defenses. Williams is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this season after getting sacked seven times last week — and now this offensive line has to try to protect him against a Minnesota defense that blitzes almost half the time in passing situations. To compound matters, center Ryan Bates and running back Roschon Johnson are out tonight with injuries — and running back D’Andre Swift is questionable. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road against divisional rivals. Minnesota is only allowing 18.5 PPG — and their defense ranks number one according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. But the Vikings rushing attack only ranks 24th in Expected Points Added per play — and their offensive line has taken a step back since Cam Robinson replaced the injured Christian Darrisaw at left tackle. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 34 games played in Prime-Time, they have played 22 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings won the first meeting between these two teams with a 30-27 victory in Chicago as a 3-point favorite on November 24th. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (480) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (479). THE SITUATION: Seattle (8-5) has won four games in a row after their 30-18 upset win at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 34-31 loss at Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has now raised their record to 8-3 when playing with a healthy D.K. Metcalf is playing. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Seattle has not allowed more than 21 points in their four games since returning their bye week in Week 10 — and they have held their four opponents to just 15.5 Points-Per-Game. They went into their bye week ranked 15th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they have risen all the way up to second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA now. They also rank second in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed since their bye week. General manager John Schneider and head coach Mike Macdonald made several crucial moves to set up this dramatic improvement. They traded for middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Tennessee on October 23rd who they acquired from the Los Angeles Rams in the preseason. They cut bait on two of the linebackers they acquired in free agency in the offseason who were not fitting Macdonald’s system. Jerome Baker was dealt away in the Jones IV trade and they released Tryel Dodson on November 11th. Macdonald then elevated rookie Tyrice Knight from UTEP as the second starting interior linebacker next to Jones IV. The positive results from these moves have been stark. After ranking 31st in Opponent EPA per Rushing Attempt Allowed from Weeks One through Eight, they have ranked fourth in that metric since. They also rank third in Opponent Early Down Rush Success Rate Allowed since the bye week after previously ranking last in that category. Jones IV is averaging 10.5 tackles per game. Because Jones IV and Knight are slowing down the run, Macdonald does not have to cheat safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant into the box — and that has helped their pass defense. After ranking 19th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed before their bye, they have ranked fifth in that metric since. Green By only gained 298 yards against an injury-riddled Lions defense last week — one of their touchdowns was courtesy of another reckless failed fourth down attempt called by Detroit head coach Dan Campbell deep inside their side of the field. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a straight-up loss in their last game. They stay on the road this week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after the first month of the season. Quarterback Jordan Love has played better at home where he is completing 64.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and seven interceptions — but he is only completing 59.7% of his passes on the road and averaging -33.4 fewer passing Yards-Per-Game with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when favored by up to seven points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (480) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 34-31 loss at Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on December 5th. Seattle (8-5) has won four games in a row after their 30-18 upset win at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have not allowed more than 21 points in their four games since returning their bye week in Week 10 — and they have held their four opponents to just 15.5 Points-Per-Game. They went into their bye week ranked 15th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they have risen all the way up to second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA now. They also rank second in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed since their bye week. General manager John Schneider and head coach Mike Macdonald made several crucial moves to set up this dramatic improvement. They traded for middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Tennessee on October 23rd who they acquired from the Los Angeles Rams in the preseason. They cut bait on two of the linebackers they acquired in free agency in the offseason who were not fitting Macdonald’s system. Jerome Baker was dealt away in the Jones IV trade and they released Tryel Dodson on November 11th. Macdonald then elevated rookie Tyrice Knight from UTEP as the second starting interior linebacker next to Jones IV. The positive results from these moves have been stark. After ranking 31st in Opponent EPA per Rushing Attempt Allowed from Weeks One through Eight, they have ranked fourth in that metric since. They also rank third in Opponent Early Down Rush Success Rate Allowed since the bye week after previously ranking last in that category. Jones IV is averaging 10.5 tackles per game. Because Jones IV and Knight are slowing down the run, Macdonald does not have to cheat safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant into the box — and that has helped their pass defense. After ranking 19th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed before their bye, they have ranked fifth in that metric since. Seattle enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Packers average 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams generating 7.0 or more YPA. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Geno Smith has not been as effective at home as he has been on the road. Smith is completing 71.5% of his passes with six touchdown passes and only two interceptions on the road with a 96.9 Passer Rating — but when at home, he is completing 67.8% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and ten interceptions with an 84.5 Passer Rating. Green By only gained 298 yards against an injury-riddled Lions defense last week — one of their touchdowns was courtesy of another reckless failed fourth down attempt called by Detroit head coach Dan Campbell deep inside their side of the field. The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Quarterback Jordan Love has played better at home where he is completing 64.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and seven interceptions — but he is only completing 59.7% of his passes on the road and averaging -33.4 fewer passing Yards-Per-Game with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (452) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (451). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (6-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 38-13 win against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (7-6) has won six of their last eight games after their 44-42 upset win against Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles comes off their best effort of the season in their upset victory against the Bills on Sunday. They generated 457 yards of offense against a good Bills defense last week — but they also surrounded 445 yards in that game in what turned out to be a shootout. One of their touchdowns came from a blocked punt. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 15 games following an upset win under head coach Sean McVay. Going on the road on a short week adds to the challenge. The Rams are giving up 25.4 PPG in their last seven games — and six of those seven opponents have scored at least 20 points. Now this defense will be without their standout cornerback Cobe Durant to a chest injury. He has been holding opposing quarterbacks throwing at him to just a 58% completion percentage and a Passer Rating of 75.6. Los Angeles ranks 30th in Points Allowed per Drive. Their opponents are also ranked 30th in Opponent EPA Allowed per dropback in the passing game. Their opponents are either scoring touchdowns or reaching the end zone in 44% of their possessions. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road as the underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. San Francisco rediscovered their offense last week by generating 452 yards against a solid Bears defense (even without injured left tackle Trent Williams). Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo played well as the lead back in that game — and while he is listed as questionable with a leg injury for this game, he has vowed to play. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games at home against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against fellow NFC West rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (452) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-6) has won six of their last eight games after their 44-42 upset win against Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (6-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 38-13 win against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams generated 457 yards of offense against a good Bills defense last week — but they also surrounded 445 yards in that game in what turned out to be a shootout. Los Angeles finally has a healthy offensive line to give quarterback Matthew Stafford more time to find wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Since Week Eight, the Rams ranks third in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play after ranking in the bottom half of the league before that with their wide receiver room not at full strength. They are scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game in their last seven games and have scored at least 26 points in four of those games. But Los Angeles is also giving up 25.4 PPG in their last seven games — and six of those seven opponents have scored at least 20 points. They have seen 51.7 combined points scored on average in their last seven games — and they have seen 57 combined points scored on average in their last four contests. In a game between two teams desperate for the victory tonight, both teams should score (at least) in the 20s and playing with scoring urgency in the fourth quarter. The Rams' defense will be without their standout cornerback Cobe Durant to a chest injury. He has been holding opposing quarterbacks throwing at him to just a 58% completion percentage and a Passer Rating of 75.6. Los Angeles ranks 30th in Points Allowed per Drive. Their opponents are also ranked 30th in Opponent EPA Allowed per dropback in the passing game. Their opponents are either scoring touchdowns or reaching the end zone in 44% of their possessions. The Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total when not playing with extended rest — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total when not playing with extended rest. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. San Francisco rediscovered their offense last week by generating 452 yards against a solid Bears defense (even without injured left tackle Trent Williams). Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo played well as the lead back in that game — and while he is listed as questionable with a leg injury for this game, he has vowed to play. But the 49ers defense has struggled lately by allowing 35 and 38 points before holding the Bears to 13 points. Defensive end Nick Bosa is questionable to play with a hip and oblique injury. San Francisco has played five games against teams who rank in the top in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are allowing 30.4 PPG against those five opponents with each of those teams scoring at least 24 points. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after winning at home in their last game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a home favorite of up to seven points. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow NFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in December — and the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (143) and the Dallas Cowboys (144). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-8) has lost three games in a row after their 44-38 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (5-7) has won two games in a row after their 27-20 loss against the New York Giants as a 4-point favorite back on Thanksgiving to start Week 13.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It is hard to not expect the Bengals to continue to get into high-scoring game shootouts. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have scored at least 27 points in their last four games during a stretch where they have averaged 35.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have surrendered at least 34 points in five straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. If the Bengals had simply split their eight games decided by one scoring possession, they would be in the heart of the AFC playoff race with a 7-5 record and Burrow would be in the MVP conversation. He has thrown 30 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. In his last four games, he has 15 touchdown passes and only two interceptions while averaging 336 passing Yards-Per-Game. Now he gets to face a Cowboys defense that ranks 28th in the league in Opponents Expected Points Added per play. Dallas has surrendered touchdowns in 30 of the 39 trips by their opponents into the Red Zone. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in Red Zone Touchdown Rate and fifth in Third Down Conversion Rate — so look for Cincinnati’s drives to not have to settle for field goals. Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer loves to blitz — and they lead the NFL in pressure rate. If they don’t send extra rushers, they get carved up as opposing quarterbacks lead the league in Yards-Per-Attempt against them in those circumstances. But here comes Burrow who punishes teams that blitz. While Burrow has a 107 Passer Rating when throwing in a clean pocket, that mark rises to a 108 Passer Rating when he is under pressure while ranking fourth in the NFL in YPA in those situations. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. The Bengals go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC. Dallas has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Giants — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +2 net turnover margin. The Cowboys have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 11 of their last 15 games at home Over the Total including five of their last six games finished Over the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (143) and the Dallas Cowboys (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (143) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (144). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-8) has lost three games in a row after their 44-38 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (5-7) has won two games in a row after their 27-20 loss against the New York Giants as a 4-point favorite back on Thanksgiving to start Week 13.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati is better than their record — they have played eight games decided by one score but have only won one of those games. They have also played a brutal schedule with seven games against teams that would currently make the playoffs: Baltimore (twice), Pittsburgh, the LA Chargers, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Washington. The Bengals with quarterback Joe Burrow has been resilient after setbacks. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. If this team had simply split their eight games decided by one scoring possession, they would be in the heart of the AFC playoff race with a 7-5 record and Burrow would be in the MVP conversation. He has thrown 30 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. In his last four games, he has 15 touchdown passes and only two interceptions while averaging 336 passing Yards-Per-Game. Now he gets to face a Cowboys defense that ranks 28th in the league in Opponents Expected Points Added per play. Dallas has surrendered touchdowns in 30 of the 39 trips by their opponents into the Red Zone. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in Red Zone Touchdown Rate and fifth in Third Down Conversion Rate — so look for Cincinnati’s drives to not have to settle for field goals. Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer loves to blitz — and they lead the NFL in pressure rate. If they don’t send extra rushers, they get carved up as opposing quarterbacks lead the league in Yards-Per-Attempt against them in those circumstances. But here comes Burrow who punishes teams that blitz. While Burrow has a 107 Passer Rating when throwing in a clean pocket, that mark rises to a 108 Passer Rating when he is under pressure while ranking fourth in the NFL in YPA in those situations. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road in non-conference play. Dallas has a 2-2 record since Cooper Rush took over at quarterback for Dak Prescott — but he is a check-down Charlie. Of the 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks this season, he ranks 37th by averaging only 5.4 YPA. He also ranks 36th of those 37 QBs in EPA per dropback. In the Cowboys’ last 20 games on Monday Night Football with Prescott under center, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those games. Dallas has been a disaster when playing at home this season with a 1-5 record where they are getting outscored by -19.5 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -83.1 net Yards-Per-Game. They are only gaining 311.2 total YPG at home which is resulting in just 16.0 PPG — and their defense is surrendering 394.3 YPG and a whopping 34.5 PPG. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati is outscoring their home hosts by +3.0 PPG and outgaining these teams in yardage. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 road games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road when favored. Lastly, the Bengals have won and covered the point spread in an incredible 15 of their last 16 games on the road when favored by 3 to 7 seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (143) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (141) and the Kansas City Chiefs (142). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won five of their last six games after their 17-13 upset victory at Atlanta as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (11-1) has won two games in a row after their 19-17 win against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite two Fridays ago on November 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers only gained 187 net yards last week against a Falcons defense that Sam Darnold just enjoyed a career day against this afternoon. They are generating only 298.5 total YPG on the road — and they are banged up on that side of the ball. Running back J.K. Dobbins is on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey is a game-time decision with shoulder and knee injuries. McConkey accounted for 117 of their 187 yards last week. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road after a victory in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. On the road, the Chargers are only giving up 13.2 Points-Per-Game — and head coach Jim Harbaugh’s game plan will most likely be to engage in a ball control offense that keeps Patrick Mahomes off the field. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Kansas City remains tough to move the ball on — they are holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 19.6 Points-Per-Game. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They are holding their visitors to just 18.8 PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West rivals — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home against divisional rivals. These lower-scoring games against familiar rivals have much to do with the game-planning and scheming of Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is as good as it gets -- and he is even better when more familiar with the opposing team.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are avenging a 17-10 loss at home to the Chiefs back on September 29th — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their mind. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (141) and the Kansas City Chiefs (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (142) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (141). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-1) has won two games in a row after their 19-17 win against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite two Fridays ago on November 29th. Los Angeles (8-4) has won five of their last six games after their 17-13 upset victory at Atlanta as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: For just the second time in Andy Reid’s coaching career, his team has failed to cover the point spread in six straight games. In both those previous occasions, his team covered the point spread to snap that streak. His team has the extra couple of days off for this game after playing on Black Friday — and his teams are 51-39-1 ATS when playing on eight or more days of rest and preparation. Admittedly, Kansas City has been the king of winning but not covering larger point spreads with Patrick Mahomes their starting quarterback — they are 24-39-2 ATS in their 65 games as a favorite of more than a field goal in his career under center. But I suspect that trend is helping to give us some point spread value tonight. The Chiefs have won all six of their games at home this season with an average winning margin of +5.2 Points-Per-Game by holding their guests to just 18.8 PPG. This is the time of the season when Kansas City kicks things into another gear — and they have a 23-6 straight-up record at home from December through the rest of the season with Mahomes at QB. The Chiefs are also 27-19-1 ATS in their 47 games at night with Mahomes with three-point spread covers in four prime-time games this season. In his last five games this season, Mahomes is completing 68% of his passes and has posted a 100 Passer Rating. Things are trending upward for this offense. Running back Isiah Pacheco returned to action last week after missing much of the season due to injury. Kansas City is also inserting D.J. Humphries at left tackle tonight which should be a significant upgrade over second-year starter Wanya Morris who has struggled in that spot. Humphries is a former Pro Bowler with Arizona who the Chiefs signed in the off-season hoping that he could recover from the back injury that derailed his career with the Cardinals. He appears healthy. In his career 98 starts, he has only been called for 18 holding penalties. Even with their recent point spread covering problems lately, Kansas City has still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Los Angeles has thrived off a soft schedule in the first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Their win against Denver represents their only victory against a team with a record over .500 — and they have lost three of their four games against teams that would currently make the playoffs.  They are getting outgained by -14.3 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The Chargers only gained 187 net yards last week against the Falcons — and they got outgunned by -163 net yards in that game. A +3 net turnover margin along with a 64-yard interception return from a Kirk Cousins pass helped overcome that yardage differential. In terms of post-game win expectancy, Los Angeles’ win last week was the luckiest victory for all teams in the last three NFL seasons. The Chargers are generating only 298.5 total YPG on the road — and they are banged up on that side of the ball. Running back J.K. Dobbins is on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey is a game-time decision with shoulder and knee injuries. McConkey accounted for 117 of their 187 yards last week. This is a difficult travel spot for Los Angeles as well after accumulating frequent flier miles from LA to Atlanta back to LA and now Kansas City in the last week. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as a dog of up to seven points. Harbaugh’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 16 games in Weeks 14 through 17.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles wants to avenge a 17-10 loss at home against the Chiefs on September 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to avenge a loss at home. Harbaugh’s teams in his NFL coaching career are just 2-3 ATS in the five games attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (142) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 17-14 upset loss at home against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (11-1) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 38-6 win against California as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is an incorrect narrative regarding this game that there is public money on Clemson simply because of their brand name. The books initially made the Tigers the favorite in this game — the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas which caters to sharp bettors and is happy to take big action made Clemson a field goal favorite in this game. It has been “sharp” money and the public that has prompted the books to move the line to where SMU is the favorite. I think the original assumptions that led to the Tigers being made the favorite are sound. The Mustangs have thrived on a weak strength of schedule that Jeff Sagarin ranks as the 63rd most difficult and that ESPN ranks as the 75th most difficult in the nation. Their best victories have been against who? Louisville? Pittsburgh. They lost to BYU. Their inaugural season in the ACC fetid a conference schedule that avoided Miami (FL), Clemson, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech. And while their athletic director gets into social media scuffles regarding the strength of their resume, the players and coaching staff are under enormous pressure that a loss in this game will not just cost them a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff but outside of the 12-team tournament all together (as playoff commissioner Wade Manuel confirmed as being very possible). This is a lot of pressure for any football team — especially one making their debut in a Power Five/Four conference. As it is, SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. All those past games were played since Rhett Lashlee took over as their head coach. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after holding their last opponent to 14 or fewer points. I suspect that the Clemson brand is pretty toxic right now amongst bettors given their three losses, the lack of recent playoff appearances, and head coach Dabo Swinney’s stubbornness to get active in the transfer portal. But this is a great rebound spot for his team that does not feel the same pressure as SMU after their loss last week to the Gamecocks — but the Tigers still make the playoffs by taking the ACC title with a win tonight. Clemson has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss in the last three seasons. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game home stand. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home when playing on six days of rest between games. The Tigers still have a solid defense that ranks 30th in Opponent Expected Points Added Per Play Allowed — and they rank 20th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. This defense is an opportunistic unit whose 23 takeaways rank as the 12th most in the nation. They rank 21st in interception rate and rank in the top ten in Havoc Rate. The Clemson offense is showing signs of getting more explosive. Freshman wide receiver Bryant Wesco was targeted ten times last week — he is averaging a healthy 2.3 Yards-Per-Route-Run this season. Even in the loss to the Gamecocks they generated 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry and gained at least two first downs in six of their 12 drives. They enjoyed a Success Rate of 65% on their 54 standard downs last week. Quarterback Clint Klubnik has eight touchdown passes and only two interceptions since Week 11 — and he has gotten more aggressive in moving the ball with his legs. He ran ten times for 62 yards last week and scored two touchdowns. The Tigers have been tested in games against Georgia and South Carolina. Clemson has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games away from home either in true road games or on neutral fields. They have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral field as an underdog of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have a huge edge in coaching experience in big games with Swinney and his staff. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December which are all either ACC Championship Games, bowl games, or playoff games. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 29-21 victory against Kansas State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (10-2) has won five games in a row after their 49-7 victory at Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Iowa State has never won a Big 12 championship in the 110 years in the conference — but they have been in this position recently under head coach Matt Campbell who led them to the championship game in 2020. The Cyclones have scored 32.5 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. They rank ninth in the nation by going three-and-out on offense in only 18.9% of their possessions. Their defense ranks 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 19.6 PPG. They rank second in the country by limiting opposing passers to completing just 52.0% of their passes. They also rank 22nd in the FBS by giving up only 5.2 Yards-Per-Dropback. The Iowa State defense gets two key contributors back for this contest as well. Safety Malik Verdon returns to action after missing last week’s game due to an injury. Middle linebacker Caleb Bacon also is healthy again after being out since Week One. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 12 games on the road against Big 12 rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home as an underdog. Arizona State overachieved preseason and point-spread expectations most of the season with their 10-2 ATS mark. Second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham did a masterful job improving the talent level of the roster in the transfer portal from last year’s 3-9 team. But there are plenty of red flags that their bubble is about to burst. The Sun Devils won six of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. They benefited from a +11 net turnover margin. They have covered the point spread in five straight games. They overachieved Bill Connelly’s SP+ scoring projections by +17.9 PPG in those five games. But now their top wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson, is out the season with an injury. Quarterback Sam Leavitt will miss his 75 catches, 1101 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. No other wide receiver has caught more than 17 passes this season — and Tyson is the only wideout with at least ten targets on third down. The Arizona State passing attack can already be a bit limited since 31% of their pass attempts are at or behind the line of scrimmage as opposed to the national average of 21%. The Sun Devils defense ranks just 86th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Their defense also ranks 117th in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate Allowed. The Arizona State special teams unit ranks 131st in the nation according to Connelly’s SP+ rankings. And, finally, this is far from an ideal start time for the Sun Devils since their body clock will think it is 10 AM.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones thrive in the role of the underdog under Campbell as they are 36-23-3 ATS in their 62 games when getting the points in his tenure — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Tulane (9-3) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 34-24 upset loss at home against Memphis as a 12.5-point favorite last Thursday. Army (10-1) rebounded from their loss against Notre Dame two weeks ago with a 29-24 win against UTSA as a 6-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall knows how to prepare his teams to defend against the triple option offense. In his three games against service academy teams going back to his previous tenure as the head coach at Troy, his teams have given up only nine combined points with two shutout wins on the road. That mark includes a 35-0 victory at Navy three weeks ago in a game where they held the Midshipmen to only 100 rushing yards from 35 carries. Not only has his defense prepared for the triple option recently, but the coaching staff can use that experience to adjust for this contest. Army generates 312.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game — but Sumrall’s teams have played all 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. Sumrall’s teams have also played 10 of their 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 4 of their 5 games on the road Under the Total when laying up to seven points. The Green Wave holds their opponents to 3.72 Yards-Per-Carry. They rank seventh in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 29th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They rank in the top 15 in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed — and they lead in the nation in Opponent Fourth Down Conversion Rate Allowed after thwarting 16 of the 23 fourth down attempts by their opponents this season. Tulane is holding their opponents to just 304.7 total YPG which has resulted in just 18.4 Points-Per-Game. The Green Wave run the ball on offense as they have the 10th lowest pass rate in the FBS. Tulane has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Army ranks eighth in the nation by allowing only 15.1 PPG — and they are limiting their opponents to 295.5 YPG. The Black Knights have played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. And while the Green Wave averages 214.3 rushing YPG, Army has played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. They have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 310 YPG. Furthermore, the Black Knights have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their 18 games under head coach Jeff Monken against teams winning 75% or more of their games. And in their last 15 games in December, Army has played 10 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will not be conducive to passing the football with the temperatures dropping into the 20s and winds at 9 miles per hour. As it is, Army scores 32.7 PPG — and Tulane has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. The Green Wave averages 6.7 Yards-Per-Attempt and 430.7 YPG —  and the Black Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 425 or more YPG and 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.9 or more YPP. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Jacksonville State (8-4) had won eight games in a row after their 19-17 loss on the road against the Hilltoppers as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Western Kentucky (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville State had already clinched the right to host the Conference USA Championship Game before last week’s game so they had nothing at stake. They got to run the base offense and keep things vanilla while saving all their tricks for this rematch. Head coach Rich Rodriguez certainly picked up a few things about the Hilltoppers defense that he could exploit — and rather than take advantage of that knowledge last week in key situations, all those plays remain uncorked for tonight’s game. Even given that, the Gamecocks generated 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which was more than Western Kentucky’s 5.1 YPP mark. Jacksonville State’s offense was only on the field for 23:23 minutes of that game which explains why they got outgained in raw yardage. The Gamecocks only converted 2 of their 13 third down attempts — and they failed to convert on five of their six attempts on third down with six yards or less to go. Look for Jacksonville State to be better on third down tonight — especially against this Hilltoppers defense that ranks 111th in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed. The Gamecocks are a run-first offense that runs the ball on 66% of their snaps while playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the nation to wear down opposing defenses. This approach was effective last week as they generated 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry for 229 rushing yards. Western Kentucky allows 208.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game from 4.8 YPC — and they rank 115th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Jacksonville State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home against teams who allow 200 or more rushing YPG. Gamecocks’ quarterback Tyler Huff is questionable tonight after leaving last week’s game with an ankle injury. I don’t know if Rodriguez was just cautious with him or if he really may not play tonight — he is a game-time decision. We have to assume he does not play (or his mobility is not 100%) and be pleasantly surprised if he can go and be effective. His backup is Logan Smothers who is a former blue-chip recruit who transferred in from Nebraska. He is in the second-year in this program and split time as the starting quarterback despite battling injuries and Rodriguez playing the hot hand. Smothers is not as dynamic a runner as Huff although he did rush for 32 yards with a touchdown on five carries last week — but he may offer more in the passing game. Rodriguez has plenty of running backs in his zone-read spread offensive attack. Jacksonville State generates 461.0 YPG when playing at home which is resulting in 37.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +14.2 PPG and outgaining them by +99.3 net YPG. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Western Kentucky had to win last week to get this opportunity to win the conference championship — so they had to deploy their best offensive and defensive looks. Running back Elijah Young ran the ball 19 times which was the third-highest mark for him all season and just the fifth time all year he ran the ball at least 15 times. Despite having their offense on the field for over 36 minutes, they still needed a 21-yard field goal to win the game with three seconds left. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw the ball 47 times for 301 yards but only averaged 6.4 Yards-Per-Completion. Now with a week to study that game tape along with the weather dropping into the 20s tonight in Jacksonville, Alabama, it will be more difficult for the Hilltoppers to move the ball in the air. As it is, Western Kentucky has struggled on offense lately as they have only generated 336.3 total YPG in their last three games for 15.7 PPG which is more than 50 YPG and 11.0 PPG below their season averages. On the road, the Hilltoppers are getting outscored by -3.8 PPG and getting outgained by -81.0 PPG. Their defense on the road is the problem as they are allowing their home hosts to gain 468.2 YPG which is resulting in 30.8 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Revenge is not a huge factor in these Conference Championship Games as teams looking to avenge a same-season loss are a flat 27-27 ATS since 2005 in those situations. But, it is telling that 36 of those 54 teams motivated by revenge improved their game score by +7.7 PPG in those contests. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season while the Hilltoppers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the second half of the season — and those trends suggests that Rodriguez and his staff do a better job with adjustments than Western Kentucky’s Tyson Helton and his staff. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (101) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won three games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 30-17 win against Miami as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday. Detroit (11-1) has won ten games in a row after their 23-20 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay comes into this game with momentum having lost only once in their last eight games (albeit, to these Lions). The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And while Detroit averages 31.9 Points-Per-Game, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 24 or more PPG. The Lions have 17 players on Injured Reserve including 12 players on defense. In addition, three more defensive linemen in their two-deep rotation (including two starters) are out tonight: defensive tackle D.J. Reader, defensive end Josh Paschall, and defensive end Levi Onwuzurike. Overall, they are missing six of their opening-day starters on defense (but, to be fair, their acquisition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith last month adds a legitimate starter back into the mix). But even counting Smith as a legit opening-day starter over Marcus Davenport (on IR), the Lions only have two starters still from that opening front six (two linebackers with a nickel defensive back package as their base defense). The depth of this unit has been significantly hampered, requiring general manager Brad Holmes to raid the practice squads of other teams just to find bodies. And while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job adjusting to the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson, the injuries last week to those three defensive linemen out tonight along with linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez on top of the previous week's injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone just seems to much to overcome now. Glenn has been blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL since the Hutchinson injury — but that may no longer be effective with so many bench players now in starting roles. And while Jordan Love has not been as effective against man coverage which Glenn has schemed up 43% of the time (the highest in the NFL), that may be a luxury he can no longer afford. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home against fellow NFC North rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained 411 yards of offense against a healthier Lions defense despite being in difficult rainy conditions when they played last month on November 3rd in a 24-14 loss at Lambeau Field — and they outgained them by +150 net yards in that game. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (101) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won three games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 30-17 win against Miami as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday. Detroit (11-1) has won ten games in a row after their 23-20 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The biggest storyline for this NFC North showdown is the injury situation. The Lions have 17 players on Injured Reserve including 12 players on defense. In addition, three more defensive linemen in their two-deep rotation (including two starters) are out tonight: defensive tackle D.J. Reader, defensive end Josh Paschall, and defensive end Levi Onwuzurike. Overall, they are missing six of their opening-day starters on defense (but, to be fair, their acquisition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith last month adds a legitimate starter back into the mix). But even counting Smith as a legit opening-day starter over Marcus Davenport (on IR), the Lions only have two starters still from that opening front six (two linebackers with a nickel defensive back package as their base defense). The depth of this unit has been significantly hampered, requiring general manager Brad Holmes to raid the practice squads of other teams just to find bodies. And while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job adjusting to the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson, the injuries last week to those three defensive linemen out tonight along with linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez on top of the previous week's injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone just seems to much to overcome now. Glenn has been blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL since the Hutchinson injury — but that may no longer be effective with so many bench players now in starting roles. And while Jordan Love has not been as effective against man coverage which Glenn has schemed up 43% of the time (the highest in the NFL), that may be a luxury he can no longer afford. I do expect the Lions to keep scoring. They lead the NFL in Points Per Drive and Pass Success Rate. They are fourth in Expected Points Added Per Play. Quarterback Jared Goff has a 121.7 Passer Rating in his last ten games — and he has always thrived when playing indoors. I expect this game to be a barn-burner between two good teams. Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Lions have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. In their last 28 games at home, Detroit is scoring 32.3 Points-Per-Game — and those games generated 54.6 combined PPG. The Packers are scoring 26.5 PPG with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG — and the Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who outscore their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Green Bay is missing two defensive starters with cornerback Jaire Alexander and middle linebacker Edgerrin Cooper out tonight with injuries. That hurts a defense that already ranks 19th on the road in Points Allowed Per Drive. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight road games over the Total after a win at home. They have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road against fellow NFC rivals Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained 411 yards of offense against a healthier Lions defense despite being in difficult rainy conditions when they played last month on November 3rd in a 24-14 loss at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an earlier loss in the season — and the Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (483) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (484). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 24-19 upset victory at home against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 21st. Denver (7-5) has won two games in a row after their 29-19 win at Las Vegas as a 5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has the benefit of the mini-bye having played the Thursday game to begin Week 12 and now closing out Week 13 on Monday Night Football. They overcame a -2 net turnover margin against the Steelers — but the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz should be able to disrupt Broncos quarterback Bo Nix tonight. Led by Myles Garrett, Cleveland leads the NFL with a Pressure Rate of 43% on the opposing team’s dropbacks -- and they also lead the league in Pass Rush Win Rate. Nix is tearing up opposing defenses when in a clean pocket — he has a Passer Rating over 100 in those situations. But when under pressure, his Passer Rating drops to 55.9. Furthermore, Nix has the third-lowest Passer Grade from Pro Football Focus when under pressure (minimum of 50 dropbacks). He has an adjusted completion percentage of 56.4% when facing pressure with just one Big-Time Throw and four Turnover-Worthy Plays. The Browns have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record under head coach Kevin Stefanski. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the second half of the season under Stefanski — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Denver got outgained in their win against the Raiders last week by -44 net yards. They only generated 5.1 Yards-Per-Play which was just below their season average of 5.2 YPP. The Broncos benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Denver has been one of the surprises of the league — but they have feasted on a weak schedule with six of their seven wins coming against all four mediocre teams from the NFC South along with Las Vegas twice. Nix has only played against one defense ranked in the top ten using the Defensive DVOA rankings by the Football Outsiders. The Broncos have played the seventh-easiest cumulative offensive schedule according to DVOA. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog laying 3.5 to 9.5 points in the last three seasons. The Browns are only scoring 16.9 Points-Per-Game — and the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who are not scoring more than 17 PPG. Additionally, head coach Sean Payton has not enjoyed great success when his teams play at night. Payton’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 games played at night — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 14 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland quarterback Jameis Winston is just 13-28-1 ATS as a starting quarterback in games where his team is favored or an underdog of less than a field. But when he is the starter as an underdog getting more than a field goal, his teams are 21-10-1 ATS — and his teams are 13-5-1 ATS in his career when he is starting as an underdog getting more than five points. 20* NFL Cleveland-Denver ESPN Special with the Cleveland Browns (483) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (483) and the Denver Broncos (484). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 24-19 upset victory at home against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 21st. Denver (7-5) has won two games in a row after their 29-19 win at Las Vegas as a 5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is too low a number tonight in what will be fine weather. While the temperatures will drop into the 30s, the skies will be clear and the wind minimal at three miles per hour. Cleveland gave up 368  yards of offense against the Steelers last week which was 23 more yards than their season average. The Browns have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road after a straight-up win. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Cleveland has also played  8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Denver offense continues to trend upwards with Bo Nix making significant strides in his rookie season. Since Week Five, the Broncos rank 15th in the NFL with an Expected Points Added per play of 0.039 — and their EPA in the last two games is 0.167. They ranked sixth in EPA per dropback in November. In his last ten starts, Nix is completing 66.1% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and only two interceptions for a 99.2 Passer Rating. Nix is smashing the narrative that he was a product of a short passing game last year with Oregon as well. In his last five games on passes of 10 or more air yards, he has accumulated 716 passing yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions and a Passer Rating of 126.9. In his last three games, Nix has eight touchdown passes and no interceptions — and he has thrown for 580 yards in his last two contests. The Broncos have scored at least 28 points in four of their last six and five of their last eight games. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when favored. The Browns are scoring only 16.9 Points-Per-Game but giving up 24.3 PPG. Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams giving up 24 or more PPG — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams who are not scoring more than 17 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. The Broncos have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in that range. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (483) and the Denver Broncos (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (481) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (482). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-10 loss at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (9-2) comes off their bye week on a six-game winning streak after their 30-21 win against Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: This situation reminds me of the Sunday Night Football game three weeks ago when Detroit traveled to Houston and most of the betting public was on the Lions — and it also reminds me of the Monday Night Football game the next night when the betting public was all over the Los Angeles Rams at home against Miami. In both instances, the underdog covered the point spread to the dismay of the majority of bettors. The 49ers are ugly right now. Brock Purdy is playing through a shoulder injury and the team is riddled with injuries most notably left tackle Trent Williams and pass rusher Nick Bosa. But we bet numbers — not teams — and it is probably too much to ask for the Bills to win this game by more than six points. San Francisco still has plenty of good players — and they will be playing this game with desperation. The 49ers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 games under head coach Kyle Shanahan after failing to cover the point spread in three games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their 23 games in the Shanahan era on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Buffalo may come out flat after the extra week off to rejoice in their triumph against their white whale in the two-time Super Bowl champion Chiefs. As it is, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home after winning their previous game at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Bills are dealing with their own injuries on offense with tight end Dalton Kinkaid out for this game and wide receiver Keon Coleman questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams from the NFC. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (481) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-10 loss at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (9-2) comes off their bye week on a six-game winning streak after their 30-21 win against Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This was a tricky one to handicap since my initial take was to lean to the Over since both these teams tend to play in higher-scoring games. But both the weather and injuries play a big role in assessing the over/under number for tonight’s game. It will be cold with the temperatures dropping into the mid-20s. There is a 77% chance of precipitation so some snow is likely — but snow often helps the offense since it impairs the ability of defenders to react to playmakers. Dan Marino was quoted as saying: “If it’s snowing, I’m throwing.” Wind can be a problem. The afternoon forecast for this evening projects winds at 11 miles per hour which is not too bad. But wind gusts of up to 29 MPH are also expected — and that is a problem. The biggest argument that convinced me to endorse the Under is the injury situation. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to play tonight — but I do not like what is going on with the mysterious shoulder injury that kept him out of last week’s game. He may not be close to 100%. The 49ers are also without two starting offensive linemen with left tackle Trent Williams and left guard Aaron Brooks out. The loss of Williams is devastating as he is the best left tackle in the world. In the two games Purdy played without Williams last season, he had two touchdown passes and four interceptions — and the Niners only scored 17 points in both games. Their offense has already been slowed down by the season-ending injury to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Running back Christian McCaffrey is back after missing the first eight games of the season — but he does not appear to be at full strength as he is generating only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry and has yet to score a touchdown. The Niners are scoring only 16.7 Points-Per-Game since McCaffrey returned — and they have scored no more than 18 points in three of their last five games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is dealing with several injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well, with the biggest loss being Nick Bosa. Given all this, I expect Shanahan to shorten this game by running the football and leaning heavily on McCaffrey to carry the offense. Shanahan has not found himself in a situation like this often — and the past results are telling. In his career as the head coach for San Francisco, there have been 23 games when the 49ers were on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points — and 16 of those games finished Under the Total. The 49ers have played 16 of their 24 games in the Shanahan era Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, in their 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points under Shanahan, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Buffalo is dealing with their own injuries on offense with tight end Dalton Kinkaid out for this game and wide receiver Keon Coleman questionable. Their defense may be bolstered with the return of linebacker Matt Milano who has yet to play this season — he is listed as questionable. The Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last six games. They are allowing only 286.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Buffalo has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. San Francisco is averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 384.8 total YPG this season. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who generate 5.65 or more YPP — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: I expect the 49ers to rely on their ground game which generates 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry against a vulnerable Bills defense that surrenders 4.78 YPC. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total against teams who allow 4.5 or more YPC. Buffalo has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who generate 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against these teams. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.