At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (287) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (288). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) won their opener with a 19-10 upset win against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay looks to rebound from their 23-7 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers should be more effective on offense this week after Aaron Rodgers was ineffective in his first game playing without his security blanket Davante Adams. But Rodgers is clearly not comfortable with the two rookies the team drafted, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he does not have the same confidence in veterans like Sammie Watkins or Randall Cobb as he did with Adams. Unlike Patrick Mahomes who had his group of wide receivers spend time with him in Fort Worth, Texas to bond and develop some passing chemistry with him, Rodgers did whatever he does in the offseason that is away from football. His tough-love approach to freeze out Watson after he dropped a likely touchdown pass from a bomb from Rodgers in his first target in the game was not the best way to nurture his confidence. The passing game is going to be a work in progress for the Packers for a while. Granted, injuries played a role last week with both starting tackles, David Bakhtiari and Elton Jenkins, not playing and wide receiver Allen Lazard — perhaps the top receiver for the team this season — also out with an ankle. Lazard took part in practice but was limited on Friday — if he plays, he will probably not be 100%. It looks like Jenkins will play but not sure about Bakhtiari who was limited in his first practice this week on Friday. It’s still far from ideal for this team with their best players banged up learning to live life without Adams. Green Bay’s formula for success will be to run the football behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — but the Bears know this. San Francisco stymied the Packers in the playoffs last year by keying on Adams and Jones. As he enters the “get off my lawn” stage of his career, Rodgers has not demonstrated that he is willing to give what the defense gives him. As it is, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while their defense allowed 395 yards to the Vikings last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while they got outgained by -127 net yards last week to the 49ers, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outgained by at least 75 yards. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times — and they are 3-1 ATS in those circumstances when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Despite their 6-11 record last year, the Bears only got outgained by -9.3 net yards last season. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +37.4 net YPG last year — their 13-4 record overall was buoyed by a 6-3 record in games decided by one possession. The Rodgers-to-Adams connection played a large role in that overachievement. I’m not selling my Packers stock, long-term, but beating division rivals by more than a touchdown is a tough business — and I don’t think Green Bay is stable enough to get that done, especially when all they really want (and need) is to win the scoreboard. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (287) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) won their opener with a 19-10 upset win against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay looks to rebound from their 23-7 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers should be more effective on offense this week after Aaron Rodgers was ineffective in his first game playing without his security blanket Davante Adams. But Rodgers is clearly not comfortable with the two rookies the team drafted, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he does not have the same confidence in veterans like Sammie Watkins or Randall Cobb as he did with Adams. Unlike Patrick Mahomes who had his group of wide receivers spend time with him in Fort Worth, Texas to bond and develop some passing chemistry with him, Rodgers did whatever he does in the offseason that is away from football. His tough-love approach to freeze out Watson after he dropped a likely touchdown pass from a bomb from Rodgers in his first target in the game was not the best way to nurture his confidence. The passing game is going to be a work in progress for the Packers for a while. Green Bay’s formula for success will be to run the football behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — and for Rodgers to continue their touches in the passing game. Expect longer possessions from them tonight as they burn the clock. But the Packers need to play better on defense after they allowed the Vikings to generate 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 395 total yards against them. The Green Bay defense should be a strength after they drafted two of the hot shots from the Georgia defense in the first round of the NFL draft, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and linebacker Quan Walker, to help a group that ranked ninth in the league by allowing 328.2 Yards-Per-Game. The Packers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Kirk Cousins passed for 269 yards against them — just under 50 passing YPG above their season average last year. But Green Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Chicago only gained 204 yards last week in their upset win against the 49ers. That mark along with their 3.8 Yards-Per-Play average was the lowest offensive numbers in the league last week. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The second-year quarterback completed 8 of 17 passes for 121 yards dealing with the rainstorm conditions in the south of Chicago during that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. He lacks reliable weapons in the passing game outside of wide receiver Darnell Mooney. But expect more solid defensive efforts from this team moving forward under a defensive head coach in Matt Eberflus who inherited a defense that ranked sixth in the NFL by allowing 316.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Chicago has played 37 of their last 58 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 12th when Green Bay won by a 45-30 score at Lambeau Field in a game that Fields was under center for the Bears. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry can use that game tape to slow down Fields this time around. The Packers did respond to their 38-3 loss to New Orleans in the opener last year by returning home to Lambeau where they crushed Detroit by a 35-17 score — but he had Adams in that game who caught eight of his nine targets for 121 receiving yards. Rodgers is going to continue to eye-roll at his wide receivers failing him tonight because he wants the world to know that it is not his fault (it never is) — so expect more offensive drives that settle for field goals rather than five touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 20-7 loss in Miami to the Dolphins as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 23-20 upset victory in overtime at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England fell behind early and went into halftime trailing by a 17-0 score. One of those Dolphins’ touchdowns came from a fumble recovery on the Patriots' 2-yard line that they scooped a returned into the end zone. New England had a -3 net turnover margin. It was a disappointing effort — and the critics of Bill Belichick were quick to use this first game as evidence that he is past his prime. Look, I’m not a fan of Matt Patricia — but his impact as the team’s offensive coordinator is overblown. Belichick started as a wide receiver’s coach in the 70s. Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coached the offensive side of the ball when on the Atlanta Falcons’ staff during the Dan Quinn era. Coaches like Belichick simply think that “coaching is coaching” — and that a defensive coach moving to the other side of the ball is akin to a prosecutor moving into private practice as a defense attorney. It is simply too early to pass judgment — especially when Belichick has declared on many occasions that he does not finish the installation of the offense each season until the end of September. So, let’s not overreact. New England has often struggled when playing at Miami. Tom Brady lost ten of his eighteen starts on the road against the Dolphins when playing for the Patriots. In those ten losses, New England scored just 17.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 293.5 total Yards-Per-Game. In Brady’s trip to Miami in 2006, the Dolphins shut him out while holding him to 189 total yards. For the record, the Patriots finished 12-4 that season before losing to Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. New England only ran the ball 22 times against the Dolphins — and the strength of this team will be them running the ball and leaning on their outstanding defense. The Patriots were second in the league by allowing 17.8 PPG. Belichick is not receiving enough credit for leading his team into the playoffs last year with a rookie quarterback. They outscored their opponents by +9.4 PPG with them generating 27.2 PPG and ranking 15th in the NFL by averaging 353.4 total YPG. It is telling that despite all the naysayers about this team this week, the bookies still list New England as the road favorite for this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while they held the Dolphins to just 65 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the regular season under Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. We were on Pittsburgh last week — and it was great to see them benefit from a +5 net turnover margin including a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Steelers got outgained by -165 net yards. It was a huge win for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by seven points or less. The Steelers only gained 267 yards of offense with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky averaging just 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They allowed the Bengals to gain 432 total yards — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Now Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt who is on Injured Reserve after tearing his pectoral muscle last week.

FINAL TAKE: While Belichick tends to struggle on the road against the Dolphins, he has a great track record when coaching against Tomlin. New England has beaten Pittsburgh in five of their last six meetings with the average score being 30-18.7 — they have a +68 net point differential in those six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh. The last time New England began the season 0-2 was in 2001 which happens to the season Brady took over as the team’s quarterback. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-32 loss at home to Oregon State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. USC (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 41-28 victory at Stanford as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: USC has declared their program back to national prominence after following up their 66-14 victory against Rice two weeks ago with a 41-28 win at Stanford last week. First-year head coach Lincoln Riley was not saying anything to tap the breaks on all the accolades that have been offered to him in the interviews I saw of him this week. But this is the biggest test the Trojans will have so far this season against a Bulldogs team with a senior quarterback who will be drafted into the NFL. The Cardinal program has taken a step back in the last few seasons — so big wins against Rice and them are just not that big a deal. As it is, USC has failed to cover the point seeped in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams who came over with Riley from Oklahoma completed 20 of 27 passes for 341 yards with four touchdowns last week — but USC is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Riley developed a reputation for having his teams underperform in critical games when he was coaching the Sooners. The Trojans led Rice at halftime by a 31-14 score before taking a 35-14 halftime lead last week — but Riley’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a two-touchdown lead or better in two straight games. The underlying numbers suggest that this team may soon get a visit from the Regression Gods. USC has enjoyed a +8 net turnover margin this year — despite the expected turnover margin being just +2.5. The bouncing ball from fumbles and tipped passes tends to even out over time. Stanford turned the ball over twice inside the Trojans’ 5-yard line last week — and while the Trojans had a +4 net turnover margin in that game, the expected turnover margin was just +1.6. USC has intercepted six balls despite only having seven pass breakups — and the metrics indicate that teams get one interception per four pass breakups. The Trojans host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. Fresno State has 15 starters back from the team that finished 10-3 last year with a victory against UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl by a 31-24 score. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. And while they generated 492 yards against the Beavers last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jake Haener completed 29 of 45 passes for 360 yards in a losing effort. He has an elite group of wide receivers led by Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly. Haener is a gunslinger who will be able to move the ball against this USC defense that allowed 5.5 Yards-Per-Play and 441 total yards against Stanford. And the Bulldogs should have success running the football. Led by running backs Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod who combined to average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry, Fresno State ranks seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Despite Rice and Stanford being suspect running teams last year, both those teams averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry in non-sack rushing attempts this season — and the Trojans rank 119th in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road — and they have covered 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State will be very motivated to make a statement against the biggest in-state program. They upset UCLA by a 40-37 score in Los Angeles last season with Haener having a big day. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). THE SITUATION: UTSA (1-1) looks to rebound from their 41-38 upset loss in overtime at Army last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Texas (1-1) comes off a 20-19 loss at home to Alabama as a 21-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: Once again, Texas has declared themselves “back” as a national power — this time this proclamation is being made despite not winning their last game. Admittedly, the Longhorns played their best game on defense in a long time — but that may speak more to the state of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line and talent at wide receiver than it does regarding the Texas defense that ranked 100th in the nation last year by allowing 425.6 total Yards-Per-Game. For a defensive unit that was called out last year for not playing hard, coming off a “successful” setback to now host a Group of Five opponent might be a recipe for disaster. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian has been anointed as a brilliant leader more than one time — only to find another way to fail. After the chaos under his watch as the head coach at USC, he was given another chance as the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons before taking the same job at Alabama under Nick Saban. He took over the Texas program last year after Tom Herman, the previous “savior” who “resurrected the program to national stature” after beating Georgia in the 2020 Sugar Bowl to complete a four-loss season, was fired after four seasons. Despite having 15 starters back, the Longhorns settled for their first losing season in five seasons after the team lost six in a row in the second half of the season. Off-the-field chaos continued to follow Sarkisian  — and the team lost at home to Kansas. But forget all that. A win against UL-Monroe before the “triumph” of losing to Alabama in a close game changes everything … once again. Concerns remain from last week’s game. Texas only rushed for 79 yards on 33 carries despite having junior phenom Bijan Robinson who is now dealing with an injury that may slow him down in this game. They are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The bigger news is that freshman Quinn Ewers suffered a broken clavicle that will keep him out for four to six weeks. Redshirt sophomore Hudson Card gets the start for this game after he came on in relief to complete 14 of 22 passes for 158 yards. But he is dealing with a nagging ankle injury that might limit his mobility which is central to his skill set. Card was benched after the section game last year because he was lacking in pocket presence. His confidence could easily get shot if this becomes a close game. UTSA is a very dangerous opponent. The reigning Conference USA champions return 13 starters from the team that finished 12-2 last year. This group is already battle-tested with both of their games this season going to overtime after losing their opening game against Houston despite outgaining them by 101 net yards. The Roadrunners then outgained the Black Knights last week by 28 net yards in pulling out that win. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and after gaining 513 yards against the solid Army defense, they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed 485 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have a sixth-year senior at quarterback with plenty of experience in Frank Harris. He is having an outstanding season. He is averaging 348 passing Yards-Per-Game with six touchdown passes to one interception — and he is adding 46.5 rushing YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September.

FINAL TAKE: While Texas just played their proverbial “Super Bowl” last week, this is the Roadrunners’ big opportunity to make a statement now. This is the first time that UTSA will be playing at Texas Memorial Stadium as they make the 80-mile trip north from San Antonio to Austin. This team will not be intimidated. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents under third-year head coach Jeff Traylor — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on turf where their team speed on offense can be better deployed. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (103) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) began the regular season with a 24-19 victory against Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (1-0) opened the season with a 44-21 win at Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory against an AFC West rival in their last game. The Chargers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just 320 yards of total offense. Linebacker Khalil Mack looked rejuvenated in a Chargers uniform after being signed in the offseason from Chicago. He joined linebacker Joey Bosa to combine for 16 hits on Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr. I am expecting a significant bump in the play of this Los Angeles defense in the second season under head coach Brandon Staley. The team hopes to have free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson take the field tonight after he missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. The former New England star is one of the best cover corners in the league. Losing Keenan Allen to a hamstring injury is significant — but with the addition of Sony Michel who was cut by Miami, look for the Chargers to run the ball more with a rotation of Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Michel. I definitely expect Staley to have his defense play a two-high safety zone that frustrated Patrick Mahomes last season. Inexplicably the Cardinals opted to play a single high safety and bring the blitz early and often against Mahomes last week. I like Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph — but I would sure like to hear his rationale for bypassing the two high safeties and opting to blitz on 53% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. Mahomes punishes the blitz. Opposing defenses found success against him by playing that two-high safety zone defense that takes away the deep ball. With Justin Herbert under center, the Chargers are consistently live underdogs — even on the road. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they are 36-16-4 ATS in their last 57 road games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Chiefs generated 33 first downs and controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes in their easy win against the Cardinals, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they gained at least 24 first downs and controlled the clock for at least 34 minutes. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Additionally, Kansas City kicker (and fantasy gem) Harrison Butker is out for this game — they activated Matt Ammendola from the practice squad to kick field goals and extra points (which does not hurt our case for the Chargers).

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers will not be intimidated playing at Arrowhead Stadium — they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road against the Chiefs including last season when they upset them by a 30-24 score as a 7-point underdog on September 26th. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (103) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) began the regular season with a 24-19 victory against Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (1-0) opened the season with a 44-21 win at Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just 320 yards of total offense. Linebacker Khalil Mack looked rejuvenated in a Chargers uniform after being signed in the offseason from Chicago. He joined linebacker Joey Bosa to combine for 16 hits on Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr. I am expecting a significant bump in the play of this Los Angeles defense in the second season under head coach Brandon Staley. The team hopes to have free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson take the field tonight after he missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. The former New England star is one of the best cover corners in the league. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in September. The LA offense was not dynamic last week against the Raiders as they only gained 355 total yards — down more than 35 yards from their season average last year. They did control time of possession for 32:32 minutes in that game which will probably be their formula tonight. Wide receiver Keenan Allen has been declared out with a hamstring injury which will make Mike Williams the primary option and elevate Joshua Palmer into the starting lineup. Losing Allen is significant since Williams had seven drops last year and Palmer lacks down-the-field speed. Allen is the glue to this group. With the addition of Sony Michel who was cut by Miami, look for the Chargers to run the ball more with a rotation of Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Michel. I definitely expect Staley to have his defense play a two-high safety zone that frustrated Patrick Mahomes last season. Inexplicably the Cardinals opted to play a single high safety and bring the blitz early and often against Mahomes last week. I like Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph — but I would sure like to hear his rationale for bypassing the two high safeties and opting to blitz on 53% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. Mahomes punishes the blitz. Opposing defenses found success against him by playing that two-high safety zone defense that takes away the deep ball. Now I do believe Mahomes put himself in a much better position than say, Aaron Rodgers, to be patient and take what the defense will give him this season in the first year without Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs generated 33 first downs and controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes in their easy win against the Cardinals. Mahomes had a fantastic statistical afternoon — going 30 of 39 for 360 yards with five touchdown passes — but the drives were not as quick-strike without Hill. And, hey, what do ya know? The defense benefited from the long drives as they held Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense to just 282 total yards. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 24 first downs while having the offense on the field for at least 34 minutes in their last previous game. The Chiefs ranked 8th in the NFL last year by allowing 21.4 Points-Per-Game — and they performed much better when they acquired Melvin Ingram midseason which allowed them to move Chris Jones back to defensive tackle. While Ingram is now gone, they drafted Purdue’s disruptive defensive tackle George Karlaftis in the first round to replace him and keep Jones at his preferred inside position. Additionally, Kansas City kicker (and fantasy gem) Harrison Butker is out for this game — they activated Matt Ammendola from the practice squad to kick field goals and extra points (which does not hurt our case for the Under).

FINAL TAKE: Both games between these two teams had at least 54 combined points scored — so I understand the arguments for the Over. But Staley is leaning-in to light boxes to defend against the pass which begs opposing offenses to run the ball. The Chargers allowed opponents to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry against their light boxes last year. I expect Kansas City to have success on offense — but with long drives and less explosiveness. It does not take much in the game script to get off the pace to finish Over 54 points. And then when you add the short week for both teams and my expectation that Staley calms down on his zeal to go for it on every fourth down, look for a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Seattle Seahawks (482). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year. Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as a road favorite. The Under is also 37-17-1 in the Broncos’ last 55 games when favored. And in their last 4 games in September, Denver has played all four games Under the Total.  Seattle is definitely experiencing a downgrade at quarterback in moving to Geno Smith. What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. He wants to play lower-scoring games that remain close — and he is confident he can outcoach his opponents in the fourth quarter. Seattle has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football — and Denver has played 4 straight Unders on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Seattle Seahawks (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season. Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. The Denver defense is overrated with good frontline numbers bolstered by a ball control offense. The Broncos' offense under head coach Vic Fangio ranked 5th in the league by averaging 29.45 seconds per play last year. Their opponent’s average starting position was on the 26.0-yard line, the second-best mark in the league. Denver ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game but they also lead the league by holding their opponents to just 16.2 drives per game. They ranked 8th in total defense — but the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders ranked their defense as 20th in the league which is probably a more accurate measure as to what to expect this season. Now a rookie head coach takes over the team with first-time offensive and defensive coordinators. Maybe this team makes a deep playoff run — but at the very least I expect some growing pains. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett will be an instant success — but I remain puzzled how he is the boy genius as the Green Bay offensive coordinator who gets none of the blame for the Packers' postseason issues while all the blame goes to Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur. Seems pretty convenient  — and Sutton and Jeudy were innocent victims of bad quarterback play. And, of course, Russell Wilson is the only reason why Seattle enjoyed nine-straight winning seasons with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll holding him back from even more success because he simply would not “let him cook.” To buy into the Denver hype, one must be willing to assess all blame elsewhere. I’m skeptical that it is that simple. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. And in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football, the Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS. Seattle needed the influx of young talent after years of decline in the quality on the roster. Wilson’s big contract did not help the organization’s ability to manage the salary cap. The Seahawks had their first top-ten draft pick in a decade in the spring — and they brought in several rookies who will make an impact tonight. Seattle had 9.3 wins using the Pythagorean model — so this was probably a better team than their 7-10 record suggests. They lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. They outscored their opponents by +1.7 Points-Per-Game. Yes, moving to Geno Smith at quarterback is a downgrade to Wilson with the team likely to draft a rookie in the first round to become their franchise quarterback next year. But Smith did have a Passer Rating of 103.0 last year as compared to Wilson’s 103.1 Passer Rating (albeit playing through an injury). What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. Rashaad Penny rushed for 671 yards with seven touchdowns in his final seven games last year — and he averaged +2.1 yards-per-carry above the metrics expected yards-per-carry. The offensive line has been significantly upgraded with free agent Austin Blythe from Kansas City at center and two early draft picks in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas joining the mix. The defense will be better simply by being on the field less. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. No, this is not a Super Bowl team — but the rebuild begins and this defense shapes up to be sneaky better than expected. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Wilson will feel some pressure returning to Lumen Field — and he is the one with Super Bowl expectations. Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September — and no one knows Wilson better than Carroll who has had the entire offseason to prepare to defend against his former quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. He will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new season Over the Total. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in September. While I am concerned about the injuries on their offensive line, this is still going to be a team that generates at least 25 Points-Per-Game. They led the NFL last year with a 31.2 PPG scoring average — so if there is some drop-off, this team should still be reliable with Overs. I am expecting the Regression Gods to visit this team when it comes to the play of their defense in the second year under defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. They led the NFL with 34 takeaways last year. The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 19 games at home Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 31-29 barnburner in the opening week last season in Tampa Bay. I expect a similar level of scoring in this rematch. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. This is a redemption season for Brady and this team after they seemed to lose focus last year after winning the Super Bowl. The Bucs were flat in the first half when hosting the Rams in the playoffs before almost pulling off a big rally in the second half. The sting of that loss and the reset this organization made by elevating Todd Bowles from defensive coordinator to their head coach should motivate this team. Brady will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers’ defense should be outstanding after ranking 5th in the league by allowing 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Injuries played a role in their Super Bowl hangover last year — but this team still outscored their opponents by +9.3 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC opponents. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has even more troubling offensive line issues. Left tackle Tyron Smith injured his hamstring in the preseason which will keep him out indefinitely — and the Cowboys have historically seen a significant dip in their scoring output when Smith is not available. Frankly, quarterback Dan Prescott is likely playing behind the worst offensive line since being drafted by Dallas. His early success with the team came with him playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Only right guard Zack Martin remains from those units (with Smith injured). They cut right tackle La’El Collins in the offseason. The Cowboys will be relying on rookie first-round draft pick Tyler Smith at left tackle — but he committed 12 penalties in his 12 starts for Tulsa last year. Jason Peters may eventually be their left tackle after he was signed off the street — but the 40-year-old is on the practice squad getting into shape. The Dallas wide receiver room lost two key contributors in Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in the offseason — and they will not have the injured Michael Gallup for this game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. In Brady, I Trust for this one. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus (or minus) the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season where they lost to San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Playoff round by a 13-10 score. Minnesota (0-0) missed the playoffs after an 8-9 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Don’t be surprised to see Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers come out with a chip on their shoulder in this game after an offseason where the team was being discounted after making the decision to not pay the big contract to wide receiver Davante Adams. Certainly, the Packers will miss his 123 receptions for 1553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. But the Green Bay offense stalled at times last year even with Adams. Green Bay lost at home in the NFC Championship Game despite the 49ers failing to score an offensive touchdown. It was the second-straight time that Aaron Rodgers saw his team get upset at home at Lambeau Field in the postseason. Rodgers has won two-straight Most Valuable Player Awards, but he underachieved in the playoffs for the second-straight season. Since leading Green Bay to the Super Bowl twelve years ago, Rodgers has a 7-9 record in his 16 playoff games. Firing Mike McCarthy and bringing in a head coach who had lunch once with Sean McVay was supposed to be the solution for the Packers’ offense when they hired  Matt LeFleur in 2019. But despite a 39-10 regular season record, the offense has stagnated for this team in the playoffs. The now 38-year-old veteran seems to have become finicky in his later years in the league. His “trust” factor with his wide receivers seems to be much higher than it is for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning back in his day who both seemed to need to a few workout sessions before being comfortable in throwing the ball to (wide open) secondary targets. Of course, Brady and Manning are notorious for vigorous offseason programs designed to facilitate this trust and comfort. That’s not necessarily Rodgers’ thing. He seems to need years of experience and familiarity with his wide receivers before he develops trust. That helps explain why he drew a line in the sand last year for management to support his wishes by acquiring former Packer Randall Cobb as a free agent from Dallas despite his being on the wrong side of 30 years-old. Cobb caught 28 balls for 375 yards last year. It is easy to understand why Rodgers would key-on Adams. The now-former Packer has great hands with a huge catch-radius and runs very precise routes. But when it becomes clear to everyone — including the 49ers defense and the bettors backing the Packers in the NFC Championship Game — that Rodgers is either going to throw the ball to Adams, running back, Aaron Jones, or an occasional lob to the 37-year-old tight end Marcedes Lewis, good defenses are capable enough to stop that. Like a parent hiding the video game console to get their child to do their home work, Rodgers will have to find new receivers to move the ball downfield if he wants to counting to throw the football in 61% of their snaps. Allen Lazard has potential to step up as a primary option (although his availability is in question for this afternoon’s game). Second round pick Christian Watson from North Dakota State has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in college. Amari Rodgers is a second-year player from Clemson who was drafted with fanfare but only caught four balls last year. Sammy Watkins was signed as a free agent from Baltimore with still tremendous albeit unfulfilled upside. Cobb is still around, as is Jones and A.J. Dillon catching balls out of the backfield. Green Bay is going to run the ball and lean on their outstanding defense that may be the best group they had since their last Super Bowl. And Rodgers will throw the ball to open receivers from the schemes of LaFleur and his adjustments at the line of scrimmage. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in September. Minnesota was outgained by -19.8 net Yards-Per-Game last season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home. They have a rookie head coach in Kevin O’Connell who is implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball. I expect a bumpy road for this team out of the gates. And while I have heard the narrative that Minnesota will finally “Let Kirk Cook” regarding Kirk Cousins getting an offensive coach who will not hurt his feelings and make him feel insecure. But wasn’t that what he had in Washington with head coach Jay Gruden? How did that work out? Maybe the “You like that!” guy who put his team at risk for missing games last year by not getting vaccinated is exactly the type of player who needs some tough love rather than 100% affirmation? O’Connell comes from the Sean McVay school as the Rams offensive coordinator last year. How many interceptions did Matthew Stafford throw on Thursday (answer: three)? Maybe, just maybe, 100% positive reinforcement is the formula  for a ton of interceptions for guys like Cousins.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will remember their embarrassing 38-3 loss to New Orleans in the opening week of last year’s season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC North opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus (or minus) the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (461) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (462). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) begins the post-Ben Roethlisberger era coming off a 9-7-1 campaign where they made the playoffs but got soundly defeated at Kansas City in the AFC Wildcard round by a 42-21 score. Cincinnati (10-7) comes off their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.

THE SITUATION: Not many are giving the Steelers much of a shot this year with many publications picking them fourth in the AFC North with their season victory total topping out in the eight-win range. But Pittsburgh continues to have confidence and the resolve of a winning franchise that sets their own standards. They have not had a losing season in the 15 years under head coach Mike Tomlin. The reports out of training camp were that they were an angry and focused group looking to prove something after their three-touchdown loss to the Chiefs. They are the only team in the NFL to engage in tackling each and every day in practice during the preseason. The retirement of Roethlisberger provides the team the opportunity to reset themselves and look in new directions.  Offensive coordinator Matt Canada appears anxious to modernize the offense with plenty of quarterback run option plays  — something they can deploy with Mitchell Trubisky. I am not expecting Trubisky to play like a Hall of Famer. However, a year removed from his exit from Chicago does have him looking in a better light after the disastrous coaching job Matt Nagy did with Justin Fields last year. Remember, Trubisky had a career 29-21 record with the Bears despite Nagy. Pittsburgh also has a big edge in this opening game with the element of surprise since the Bengals lack game tape of how the new offense will operate. The Steelers have an underrated wide receiver room with Deontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and the preseason rookie phenol, George Pickens. With Trubisky under center, Pittsburgh has a quarterback with the arm strength to open up the vertical passing game — something Roethlisberger could not do in the twilight of his career. The defense should be a strength of the team. For the fifth straight season, they led the league in sacks. Despite dealing with a host of injuries, the Steel Curtain improved over the final six weeks of the season where they forced 17 turnovers. Pittsburgh loves spots like this where they are discounted — they are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog. Furthermore, they are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games under Tomlin when an underdog against an AFC North rival. I thought Cincinnati should have won the Super Bowl if not for the ill-advised running back rotation of head coach Zac Taylor which convinced him to keep Joe Mixon off the field in crucial down-and-distance situations against the Los Angeles Rams. I love Burrow — but the offense was too often boom-or-bust which I think is a function of Taylor’s play-calling (one of many offensive “geniuses” head coaches who would better serve to let their offensive coordinator call plays so that they can full attention to the game management responsibilities of a head coach. The Bengals brass attempted to upgrade the offensive line with three free agent signings along with a fourth-round draft pick. The group should be better — but since Taylor is a Sean McVay disciple (save for relying on play-action which would have helped the suspect offensive lines of the past perform better), he did not play his offensive line together much in the preseason leaving cohesion issues against hostile competition still an issue. The Cincinnati defense was middling last year — they ranked 18th in total defense by allowing 350.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the best in the business in play design — but the talent of this unit remains a concern. They ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 24th in the passing defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They ranked 26th in completion rate allowed which may be a problem against a Steelers’ offense that likes to get the ball to their speedy receivers in space to take advantage of YAC (yards after the catch). And then there is the fact that the loser of the Super Bowl has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of the last 22 opening weeks to the new season.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati dominated Pittsburgh in their two meetings last year — winning both games by a combined 65-10 score. Tomlin certainly used this as a constant reminder to his team in the preseason. The Steelers have still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against division rivals. Expect a close game. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (461) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (348) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (347). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 38-31 win at home against West Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite on September 1st. Tennessee (1-0) defeated Ball State by 59-10 score as a 37-point favorite two Thursdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Mountaineers in that Thursday night game who covered the point spread by a half-point — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. The encouraging development for Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi was the play of senior quarterback Kedon Slovis. The transfer from USC completed 16 of 24 passes for 308 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions to outplay J.T. Daniels, the quarterback he replaced for the Trojans when both were in that program. The Panthers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Pitt returns 15 starters from the team that finished 11-3 and won the ACC championship. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee was dominant on offense last week by gaining 569 total yards against an overmatched Cardinals defense. But the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory under second-year head coach Josh Heupel. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last game. And while Tennessee held Ball State to just 343 total yards, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Volunteers' defense will likely remain the downfall of this team after they ranked 99th in the nation last year by allowing 421.7 total Yards-Per-Game. They did not register a sack last week — and they missed 11 tackles. Tennessee was flat-track bullies last year that beat up on lesser teams before shrinking against better competition. They scored 53 Points-Per-Game while averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Play against teams outside ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top-40 SP+ analytics system — but those numbers dropped to 29 PPG and 6.2 YPP against teams inside the SP+ top-40. While they held their first seven opponents to 22.9 PPG and 4.9 YPP, those defensive numbers exploded to them giving up 39.3 PPG and 6.0 YPP in their last six games when they started playing quality SEC opponents. They lost four of their five games last year against ranked opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last year with Pitt winning on the road in Knoxville by a 41-34 score. It was that loss that prompted Heupel to make a change at quarterback with Hendon Hooker taking over for Joe Milton — but that angle may be overrated in this rematch since Hooker played for much of that game. This will be a clash of styles between the fast-tempo of the Volunteers' offense facing the ball control slog that the Panthers want to play. Pitt ran the ball on 61% of their plays last week — and this style may frustrate Tennessee who is used to getting their way. The laptops tend to overvalue the Volunteers given their blowout victories against lesser teams in which they play fast and do not take their foot off the accelerator. The Panthers have six All-ACC selections back on defense — and the Pitt defense generated eight tackles-for-loss last week. 10* CFB Tennessee-Pittsburgh ABC-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (348) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (347). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-14 loss at South Carolina as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (2-0) survived a 63-61 upset win at Appalachian State as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels were very fortunate to leave Boone, North Carolina with a victory last week. The Mountaineers missed a two-point conversion at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. Not only did the Tar Heels get outgained by 82 net yards, but they also surrendered a whopping 649 yards in that game with Appalachian State scoring an incredible 40 points in the fourth quarter alone. Fourth-year head coach Mack Brown brought in Gene Chizik as his new defensive coordinator to fix a defense that ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game last year. It is safe to say that remains a work in progress. The 11 starters that returned from last year’s team that settled for a 6-7 record may have learned the wrong lesson last week. They stay on the road this week to play another Sun Belt Conference team who they crushed by 32 points last year — so they may not be completely focused with a bye on deck before a showdown with Notre Dame. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This team has not fared well after playing a wild high-scoring game. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. They did gain 567 yards last week — and they have averaged 8.85 and 9.45 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Their defense is a big problem — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road games when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Georgia State should have a chip on their shoulder for this game after losing to an SEC opponent last week in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Panthers outgained the Gamecocks by a 311-306 margin but had two punts blocked in the second half that were returned for touchdowns. Georgia State opened the game by driving inside South Carolina’s 10-yard line before turning the ball over on downs. The Gamecocks also nailed two field goals from beyond 50 yards. But this is a resilient team under head coach Shawn Elliott in his sixth year with the program. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games last year — including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl — to finish the season with an 8-5 record. Fourteen starters return from that group including senior quarterback Darren Grainger. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while last week’s game finished Under the 55-point Total, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their previous game. They should have success running the football against a Tar Heels defense that allowed Appalachian State to generate 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia State has four starters back and their top two rushers from last year, Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, from an offense that was 8th in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing YPG. Grainger is a mobile quarterback who ran for 660 yards last season and who gained 43 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.                         

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will not be intimidated by hosting a Power-Five team this afternoon. The Panthers outgained a Gamecocks team last week that soundly defeated the Tar Heels in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by a 38-21 score last season. Georgia State upset Tennessee in Knoxville in 2019 — and they played Auburn tough on the road last season before losing by a 34-24 score. The Panthers will have revenge on their minds as well after getting embarrassed in Chapel Hill to the Tar Heels by a 59-17 score. That game was played early in the season before Grainger took over as the starting quarterback which helped turn their season around. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off an 11-6 season where they lost on the road at Kansas City by a 42-36 score in the AFC Divisional round. Los Angeles (0-0) are the reigning Super Bowl Champions after beating Cincinnati in the Super Bowl by a 23-20 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL:  The Bills are favorites in the betting market to win the Super Bowl this season with the expectation being that they will have a chip on their shoulder after their heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs when their defense allowed a game-tying field goal with just 13 seconds left in regulation. After Kansas City scored a game-tying field goal to force overtime, they won the coin flip and Patrick Mahomes did not let Josh Allen get the ball again by leading the Chiefs on a touchdown drive that ended the game — and prompted a change in the NFL overtime rules (by kicking the can on the inevitable “but why can’t the other team get one more chance” dilemma when removing the clock, even if for good reasons). Allen and the Bills’ offense should be loaded for bear this season. They were 3rd in the NFL last year by scoring 28.4 Points-Per-Game — and they were 5th by generating 408.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Allen was transcendent in the playoffs last year with nine touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 149.0. The interesting thing about him is that he tended to save his best games for the national spotlight. According to the metrics at Football Outsiders, while he had a DVOA of 27.8% for the season overall, that mark rose to a 43.5% clip when playing in prime-time games on national television. Nine starters return on offense — and while offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is the head coach for the New York Giants, his quarterback coach and now offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in the game. He should have more reliable weapons to compliment Stefon Diggs in the passing game this season. Gabriel Davis had a breakout game against the Chiefs in the playoffs with four touchdown catches. Buffalo added slot receiver, Jamison Crowder, from the New York Jets in the offseason. The Bills have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road including four of their last five games away from home — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles was tied for 7th in the NFL by scoring 27.1 PPG last year — and they scored 26.8 PPG in their four playoff games. Reports from the Rams camp were that they were one of the most impressive teams in the preseason practice — and the injured right elbow that has been nagging quarterback Matthew Stafford is not an issue (at least for this week). Stafford should be even better the season year in head coach Sean McVay’s system — and Cam Akers should be more effective at running back after a disappointing postseason where he averaged just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry after his quicker-than-expected return from the Achilles injury that kept him out for the regular season. The team is without Robert Woods and Odell Beckham from the wide receiver group but they did add Allen Robinson from Chicago in the offseason. The defense still has Aaron Donald — but this unit may take a step back after losing Von Miller and Sebastian Joseph-Day from the front seven. The Rams ranked just 17th in the league last year by allowing 344.9 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight Overs in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills led the NFL in scoring defense and total defense — but those numbers were propped up by a fairly easy strength of schedule against some of the weakest offensive units in the league. Tennessee scored 34 points against them, Indianapolis scored 41 points, and Tampa Bay put up 33 points before the playoff game with Kansas City who scored at will against them in the second half. Six games against the other three AFC East teams along with games against the NFC South (Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina), along with Jacksonville, Houston, Washington, and Pittsburgh is an ideal recipe for inflated defensive numbers. I think both teams will suspect that 30 points will be needed to win and make their in-game decisions accordingly — making the Over a self-fulfilling prophecy. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (451) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off an 11-6 season where they lost on the road at Kansas City by a 42-36 score in the AFC Divisional round. Los Angeles (0-0) are the reigning Super Bowl Champions after beating Cincinnati in the Super Bowl by a 23-20 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills are favorites in the betting market to win the Super Bowl this season with the expectation being that they will have a chip on their shoulder after their heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs when their defense allowed a game-tying field goal with just 13 seconds left in regulation. After Kansas City scored a game-tying field goal to force overtime, they won the coin flip and Patrick Mahomes did not let Josh Allen get the ball again by leading the Chiefs on a touchdown drive that ended the game — and prompted a change in the NFL overtime rules (by kicking the can on the inevitable “but why can’t the other team get one more chance” dilemma when removing the clock, even if for good reasons). Allen and the Bills’ offense should be loaded for bear this season. They were 3rd in the NFL last year by scoring 28.4 Points-Per-Game — and they were 5th by generating 408.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Allen was transcendent in the playoffs last year with nine touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 149.0. The interesting thing about him is that he tended to save his best games for the national spotlight. According to the metrics at Football Outsiders, while he had a DVOA of 27.8% for the season overall, that mark rose to a 43.5% clip when playing in prime-time games on national television. Nine starters return on offense — and while offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is the head coach for the New York Giants, his quarterback coach and now offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in the game. He should have more reliable weapons to compliment Stefon Diggs in the passing game this season. Gabriel Davis had a breakout game against the Chiefs in the playoffs with four touchdown catches. Buffalo added slot receiver, Jamison Crowder, from the New York Jets in the offseason. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in September. Los Angeles returns to SoFi Stadium where they had the advantage of playing the Super Bowl against one of the weakest opponents in years (decades?) in the Bengals (apologies to Joe Burrow — and we covered with Cincinnati!). Cincinnati had a below-average offensive line and just a middle-of-the-road — but they still were in a position to win that game before head coach Zac Taylor bungled his play-calling and kept Joe Mixon off the field on crucial third and fourth downs. And remember that Matthew Stafford is not the new Baker Mayfield selling everything he can in advertisements (with his T-Mobile smirk dogging Detroit seemingly on perpetual loop) — if only the 49ers’ Jaquiski Tartt catches the wounded duck of a pass he threw up in the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship Game. Remember, Stafford led the NFL with 17 interceptions last year — and four were returned for pick-sixes. He becomes a national goat (the bad kind, not the G.O.A.T. kind) if Tartt catches that ball. This is a game defined by moments — and the Rams were beneficiaries of many fortunate breaks while winning their final three playoff games by just a field goal last year. Los Angeles only outgained their opponents by +27.2 Yards-Per-Game last year — and the roster has sustained some significant losses.

FINAL TAKE: It will be foolish to be committed to a “Fade Rams” campaign — it always is shortsighted to become an ideologue to these initial assumptions. Besides, we bet for or against numbers — not for or against teams. For this opener, I think it is the Rams who are overvalued against a Bills team not laying a field goal. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (451) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns 12 starters from their team that finished 11-2 after beating Utah in the Rose Bowl by a 48-45 score. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from a team that finished 11-2 after a 37-35 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State enters this season chippy after losing to Michigan last year and missing the College Football Playoff. Six starters are back on offense from a unit that led the nation by scoring 45.7 Points-Per-Game and 531.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud erased any doubt if the Buckeyes’ offense would slow down after the departures of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in the Rose Bowl — he completed 37 of 46 passes for a whopping 573 yards with six touchdown passes and one interception despite those star wide receivers opting out of that game. Stroud shredded a strong Utah defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba demonstrated he could handle the top dog responsibilities at wide receiver by catching 15 balls for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State also returns running back TreVeyon Henderson who ran for 1248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Henderson forced 50 missed tackles on his 183 carries. The Buckeyes' offense is going to be just fine. And their defense should be much improved with nine of their top ten tacklers back from a group that allowed 22.8 PPG, ranking 38th in the nation. Fourth-year head coach Jason Day tapped one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation Jim Knowles to come to Columbus to upgrade the defense. Ohio State had the top statistical defense in 2019 while serving as a pipeline into the NFL — so their decline the last two seasons maybe just a product of regression after so much attrition. The Buckeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Notre Dame is full of optimism under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman — but the 36-year-old may experience growing pains in learning these new responsibilities. He was the Irish’s head coach in the Fiesta Bowl when they blew a 28-7 first-half lead. Eight starters return on defense from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by allowing just 19.7 PPG — but they fall to 43rd in the country in giving up 359.5 total YPG so this may be an overrated group that got exposed by the Cowboys in the bowl game. The loss of safety Kyle Hamilton to the NFL will really hurt. On offense, Freeman has tapped sophomore Tyler Buchner as his starting quarterback. He is a dual-threat QB who too often wanted to run the ball in his time on the field last season. Accuracy is an issue for him — as well as three interceptions in his 35 pass attempts. To compete with the Buckeyes, he will need to be productive with the passing game — and that is a skill set he has yet to demonstrate at a high level. He does have the best tight end in the nation in All-American Michael Mayer — but the Irish lack explosive talent at wide receiver to complement his skills. Senior Avery Davis is out the year with a torn ACL. Perhaps sophomore Lorenzo Styles has a breakout season? It is the lack of skill position talent that played a role in Brian Kelly defecting to LSU before the bowl game. And it is this perpetual lack of top-end talent that explains why Notre Dame tends to fall flat against elite competition after beating up on their usual schedule of Purdue, Navy, and Boston College. The Fighting Irish have lost ten straight games on the road against top-ten teams with an average losing margin of -16.4 PPG. They have lost 11 games in a row on the road against top-five opponents with an average losing margin of -19.6 PPG — and seven of those losses were by 17 or more points. Notre Dame just seems to hit a ceiling against the best teams in the nation. They lost at home to Cincinnati by a 24-13 score last year. They lost 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game in 2020 before getting smoked by Alabama in the Playoff Semifinals by a 31-14 score. They got crushed in Ann Arbor against Michigan by a 45-14 score in 2019. They lost to Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals in 2018 by a 30-3 score. Even in 2018 at Miami (FL), they lost by a 41-8 score. This team is no stranger to blowout losses. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games with the total set in the 56.5 to 63 range. And they may be without their potential All-American center Jarrett Patterson who is dealing with a foot sprain. He was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Two intangibles favor Ohio State. Knowles was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl — so not only did he prep extensively against the Irish but the early failures of his defense will remain fresh in his mind. Notre Dame only scored seven points in the scorn half of that game. Additionally, Day has experience coaching against Freeman’s defense back in 2019 when the Irish played Cincinnati. The Buckeyes raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead before cruising to a 42-0 victory. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (223). THE SITUATION: UTSA (0-0) returns 13 starters from the 12-2 team that won the Conference USA title before losing to San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl by a 38-24 score. Houston (0-0) has 11 starters back from their 12-2 team that lost to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game before beating Auburn by a 17-13 score in the Birmingham Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA returns eight starters on offense from the unit that finished 11th in the nation by scoring 36.9 Points-Per-Game. Sixth-year super senior Frank Harris is still under center — and he has his top four targets return in the passing game. Harris threw for 27 touchdowns last year while averaging 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. The dual-threat QB added 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground with 24 runs of more than 10 yards. The Roadrunners do lose running back Sincere McCormick to the NFL — but head coach Jeff Traylor brought in Trelon Smith from Arkansas as a transfer who has a career 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry mark. He will run behind an offensive line that has four returning starters and 121 combined starts of experience. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home at the Alamodome — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting up to seven points. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in September. Houston comes off an impressive season — but they benefited from playing the 67th hardest schedule in the nation. Senior Clayton Thune returns at quarterback for a team that scored 35.9 PPG — but the Cougars ranked just 58th in the nation by generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play and they only ranked 68th in Success Rate on offense. Houston only averaged 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground — and they were just 115th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. The defense under head coach Dana Holgorsen was quite good as they ranked sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to 301.1 total YPG — but this unit is going to take a step or two back. The Cougars lost two All-AAC players on the defensive line in Logan Hall and David Anehih — and the secondary must replace their starting cornerback duo.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 road games when favored by up to 7 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Roadrunners are a talented and dangerous home dog who would love to knock off the Cougars. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (223). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Old Dominion Monarchs (156) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (155). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (0-0) returns 17 starters from a team that finished 6-7 last year after a 30-17 loss to Tulsa in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Virginia Tech (0-0) has 11 starters back from their team that also finished 6-7 after a 54-10 loss to Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MONARCHS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a sneaky hard game for the Hokies who begin the tenure of first-year head coach Brent Pry. The defensive coordinator for Penn State for the last 11 seasons is considered a genius on that side of the ball — but not only will the assistant coach for more than 30 seasons now have the challenge of being the head coach, but he will also no longer have blue-chip recruits on defense to implement his game plans. Recruiting declined significantly for this program under head coach Justin Fuente who was let go before completing his sixth year with the program. Virginia Tech had below .500 season in three of the last four seasons. Seven starters return on defense but this is a major rebuild for Pry and defensive coordinator Chris Marve from a unit that ranked 76th in the nation by allowing 393.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Long gone are the days of Bud Foster with his “lunch pail defense” identity implanted on the defensive unit. The offense was bleak last season with the Hokies scoring only 23.7 PPG. Pry brought in third-year sophomore Grant Wells as a transfer from Marshall to run the offense — but while he demonstrated promise as a freshman with his strong arm, he is too loose with the football with 22 interceptions in his career including 13 last year. Wells will be throwing to a revamped group of receivers after 103 of the 173 catches last year came from players that are no longer on the team including do-it-all running back Raheem Blackshear. It looks like Pry wants the offense to become a run-first attack — and he poached Wisconsin offensive line coach Joe Rudolph to coach the offensive line — but it will take time to build this offense into something like how the Badgers operate. In the meantime, Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road. They will face a feisty and confident opponent in Old Dominion. After not playing in 2020 because of the pandemic, the Monarchs understandably started slowly under first-year head coach Ricky Rahne. But the team kept fighting and won five of their last six games after Rahne made a change at quarterback by turning to sophomore Hayden Wolff. After only averaging 19 PPG and 300.4 total YPG in their first five games, Old Dominion scored 28.1 PPG and generated 399.7 total YPG in their seven contests. Junior running back Blake Watson up his rushing average from 84.8 rushing YPG to 111.7 rushing YPG after Wolff took over as the starting quarterback. Ten starters are back on offense for this team including four on the offensive line. Five of the top six receivers are back as well. On defense, five of the top six tacklers are back from a group that held their final six opponents to 22 PPG. All four starters return on the defensive line from a group that ranked 29th in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 11th in opponent Rush Explosiveness. The Monarchs also ranked 16th in the nation by giving up just 41 plays of 20 or more yards. Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Pry and Rahne coached together at Penn State when Rahne was an offensive coordinator in Happy Valley from 2018-2019. While there will be familiarity between these two coaches, Rahne has the edge when it comes to knowing his players. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the ACC — and the Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside their conference (as they enter the Sun Belt from Conference USA this season). 10* CFB Virginia Tech-Old Dominion ESPNU Special with the Old Dominion Monarchs (156) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (143) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (144). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (0-0) returns 11 starters from the team that finished 6-7 after an 18-6 loss to Minnesota in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Pittsburgh (0-0) has 15 starters return from their group that finished 11-3 after a 31-21 loss to Michigan State in the Peach Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat in his fourth season in Morgantown — but he made two significant moves for the offensive side of the ball to improve a unit that ranked 87th in the FBS last season by allowing 371.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Brown lured offensive coordinator Graham Harrell to install his Air Raid offense after he was let go from USC when they brought in Lincoln Riley. Harrell is considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in college football (and perhaps the brains behind the Kliff Kingsbury offenses at Texas Tech). But an even bigger get was the acquisition of quarterback J.T. Daniels from Georgia. I think Daniels is a credible Long Shot Bet to win the Heisman Trophy (200-1 odds at the Westgate earlier this week). He graduated early from his high school in South Anaheim and was recruited to play at USC as the High School National Player of the Year. He threw for over 12,000 yards in high school with 152 touchdown passes — and he was groomed to be the Trojans’ immediate starter as a freshman as they began their post-Sam Darnold era in 2018. He had 11 starts in that first year while showing flashes of brilliance including completing 26 of 31 passes in the first half of the Notre Dame game. But injuries held him back — and in his sophomore season with Harrell in his first year at USC as the offensive coordinator, he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the 2019 season. That injury cost him the starting job — so he entered the transfer portal and chose Georgia. But coming off knee surgery, the onset of the COVID pandemic with its impact on practice time did Daniels no favors when competing against the steady hand of senior Stetson Bennett IV. When the Bulldogs fell to 4-2 on the season after a 44-29 loss to Florida, head coach Kirby Smart turned to Daniels as his starting quarterback for the final four games. Not only did Georgia win all four games, but Daniels demonstrated his vast potential by completing 80 of 119 passes for 1231 yards with ten touchdown passes and just two interceptions. The Bulldogs' offense averaged 37.3 Points-Per-Game in those final four games with Daniels’ strong arm unlocking a big-play element to the offense that did not exist with Bennett. Many forget that Daniels began last season as the incumbent starter for Georgia to open the 2021 season. The Bulldogs pulled off a 10-3 upset win in that game — but Daniels did not lead the team to a touchdown drive (Georgia’s defense set the tone that would define their National Championship season by scoring on a pick-six). Daniels completed 22 of 30 passes but in what was a low-risk game plan from offensive coordinator Todd Monken as he passes for just 135 yards. An oblique injury kept him out of the following game against UAB which gave Bennett another chance under center — and the former walk-on and fifth-year senior took full advantage by completing 10 of 12 passes for 288 yards and five touchdown passes. Daniels was ready to play the next week against South Carolina — and he completed 23 of 31 passes for 303 yards with three touchdown passes in the start to lead the Bulldogs to a 40-13 victory. But then a lat injury held him back the next week in a game where he split time with Bennett who continued to play at a very high level while protecting the football. Daniels would only throw 94 passes all season with 68 completions, 722 yards, and seven touchdown passes. He was perched to reclaim the starting quarterback job from Bennett if the Bulldogs ever stumbled — but Georgia had a spot in the playoffs locked before the SEC Championship Game where they lost to Alabama but having it only cost them in the final four seeding. Bennett would lead Georgia to the National Championship and was coming back as a super sixth-year senior. Daniels decided to transfer to a program where he could win the starting job while showing off his talents for the next level. He has three returning starters at wide receiver and a potential rising star in sophomore Kaden Prather who had a big spring. Junior Tony Mathis, Jr. is back at running back after peaching at the end of last season. All five starters return on the offensive line. Defense has been the calling card for Brown’s teams at West Virginia. After finishing fourth in the nation in total defense in 2020, the Mountaineers held their opponents to 350.1 total YPG, ranking 37th in the nation. This unit was 12th in the nation by allowing just 3.78 points per opponent’s quality possession. Four starters return — but Brown brought in seven FBS transfers and three junior college players to bolster the unit in this critical season. Six of the top seven players on the depth chart return on their defensive line which should help them tonight against a Panthers team that will likely return to focusing on their ground game. Pittsburgh is learning to live life without Kenny Pickett under center after he has been their starting quarterback for the last five seasons. Not only did he leave for the NFL, but offensive coordinator Mark Whipple left to become the OC at Nebraska. The Panthers were third in the nation by scoring 41.4 PPG — but without Whipple to challenge head coach Pat Narduzzi to embrace some of the principles of modern football, Pitt may return to “three yards and a cloud of dust”. Given that Narduzzi replaced Whipple with Boston College offensive coordinator and the former OC for Jeff Fisher for the St. Louis Rams, the successful passing attack that the Panthers had last year may be history. Remember, Pitt averaged only 21.2 PPG just two seasons ago. Ironically, Narduzzi recruited Kedon Slovis to transfer over to take over under center from USC — and it was Slovis who took the job away from Daniels in 2019 after his early season-ending injury. Slovis struggled last year during the Trojans’ 4-8 season — he completed 193 of 297 passes for 2153 yards with 11 touchdown passes but eight interceptions in a lost season where they lost four of their first seven games en route to a 4-8 finish with Helton fired midseason. Slovis was eventually benched for yet another highly touted freshman in Jaxson Dart — and he was not in the team’s plans when Riley brought his star sophomore quarterback with him from Oklahoma, Caleb Williams. The Panthers return seven on defense — but they may have lost two much star power from last year’s unit. The decision of former captain Cam Bright to transfer to Washington may be telling. The linebacker led a stout front seven — but this defense too often got burned when playing too aggressively. They ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 264.3 passing YPG — a bright sign for Daniels to open his season on a strong note. Pitt has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The X-factor tonight is Harrell who not only has a previous history coaching Daniels — but he has been Slovis’ offensive coordinator for the entirety of his collegiate career. He will have the insight to help the Mountaineers’ defense. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB West Virginia-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (143) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (0-0) returns 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. FAU (0-0) has 14 starters back as well from their team that finished 5-7 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers need to improve a defensive unit that allowed 34.0 PPG and that ranked 120th in the FBS by giving up 465.0 total YPG — but head coach Will Nealy has reasons for optimism in his fourth year with the program. He brought a wily veteran with plenty of experience in the NFL and the FBS level in Greg Brown to coordinate his defense this season. Brown served as the defensive coordinator for Arizona in 2018 -- and he has over a decade of experience as a defensive coach in the NFL. He has experienced players that he should be able to coach up as eight seniors who played at least 250 snaps last year returned. Injuries did not help Charlotte’s cause last year with the team losing 46 total games to injuries from their starters. Getting Davondre “Tank” Robinson back at strong safety after the former East Carolina transfer suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week One will help. Healy also brought in a four-year player in defensive end Amir Siddiq from Central Michigan to add a pass rush threat to a line that has two starts returning. He joins defensive end Markees Watts to give the team an intriguing pass rush combination who combined for ten sacks last year. The 49errs offense returns Chris Reynolds at quarterback for his sixth year with the program and his fifth as a starter. At this point, we know what we are going to get with the fifth-year starter (with the COVID season where no player lost eligibility). He completed 215 of 337 yards for 2648 yards — but the offense only scored 27.2 PPG which ranked 79th in the nation. Charlotte has palled 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. And in their last 7 games, as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, they have played 5 of those games Under the Total. FAU returns eight starters from their offense that only scored 25.4 PPG last year, ranking 84th in the FBS. Former Miami (FL) quarterback N’Kosi Perry returns under center after he completed only 60.7% of his passes for 2771 yards. Perry has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in his career — but his inconsistency is why he lost the starting job with the Hurricanes and eventually transferred to a Group of Five program. He plays behind an offensive line that allowed 35 sacks last year. The Owls' defense gave up 409.2 total YPG last year (90th in the FBS) but they only gave up 25.8 PPG which was tied for 58th in the nation. Third-year head coach Willie Taggart retooled his defense by bringing in Todd Orlando as the new defensive coordinator after previous stints with USC, Texas, and the University of Houston. The veteran has six returning starters plus a slew of transfers led by sophomore linebacker Jamie Pettway from Missouri. FAU held their first eight opponents to only 21.5 PPG last year — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Owls have also played 18 of their last 26 games at home Under the Total with the Total in the 56.5-63 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. FAU dominated Charlotte last year by a 38-9 score as a 6.5-point favorite on the road with that Total set at 58. Healy has probably reminded himself every day in the offseason that his team has a 6-3 record in the last two seasons if they do not allow more than 35 points — but they are 1-8 in their last nine games when their opponent scores more than 35 points. The 49ers need to control the clock to help Reynolds stay within striking distance. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The best player on the field in the AFC Championship Game was Joe Burrow. The stats say he completed 23 of 38 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He miraculously avoided defensive tackle, Chris Jones, twice on a crucial play to run for a first down in the second half — part of the 25 yards he added on the ground. But his biggest influence remains in his unwavering belief that he will lead his team to a victory. This is what he did at LSU — and he is already doing it in Cincinnati. It is time to jump on board — and the evidence is staring at us. The Bengals have nine games this season against teams who made the playoffs. They won and covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. They beat and covered the point spread twice against Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh — and they beat and covered the point spread on the road against the AFC top-seeded team in Tennessee (that beat Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and these Rams in Los Angeles during the regular season). Furthermore, their two losses to playoff teams were against Green Bay and the 49ers by just a field goal in each occasion. The debate over whether or not this Bengals team is battle-tested is over. And while I was already sold on Burrow, the convincing case made by Cincinnati in their victory against the Chiefs was the play of their defense in holding Patrick Mahomes to just a field goal in the entire second half for the second time this month. The Bengals have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last seven games — those two exceptions were against Kansas City in games where they still pulled off the victory. Cincinnati has now covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games if they are riding a point spread streak of at least three games (they enter the Super Bowl on a 7-0 ATS run). Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cincinnati is a dangerous underdog playing with house money this early in Burrow’s career after entering the season with 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, and the rest of this Los Angeles team, on the other hand, have the weight of the world on them to win the Super Bowl. For the second straight season, a team will be playing in their home stadium for the Super Bowl — but I do not see the Rams enjoying the same advantage as the Buccaneers did last season. Los Angeles did not have the home crowd edge in their two games with the 49ers this month — it is highly unlikely they will have an overly partisan crowd advantage now. Staying at home in Los Angeles leaves this Rams roster full of big personalities with plenty of distractions that did not exist in Tampa Bay last year — and they do not have a Tom Brady providing executive leadership either. Playing at home may play into the pressure issues the Rams are already facing. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Regarding Stafford and his ability to handle pressure, if Jaquiski Tartt does not drop the wounded duck of a pass that he threw midway through the fourth quarter, the Niners might/probably win that game. The last time McVay had his team in the Super Bowl, they only scored three points in their 13-3 loss to New England in 2018. Looking at the team trends evidence, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have won six of their last seven games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Stafford did pass for 337 yards against San Francisco — but Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Rams played ten games against teams who made the playoffs this season — but they won only five of those contests (after winning three games in the postseason) while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Underdogs have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games in this postseason starting in the divisional round of the playoffs. While I don’t consider that actionable evidence by itself, I do think it is illustrative that this NFL season has consisted of flawed teams competing for the championship. I don’t think either of these teams would fare well against the recent Super Bowl winners — but maybe that assessment is still under-appreciating what the Bengals have accomplished. Cincinnati has the edge at quarterback. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Super Bowl between the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford may get most of the attention for both these teams — but both of these offensive head coaches value their running game to help their underrated defenses. The Bengals controlled the Time of Possession by being on offense for 35:56 minutes against the Chiefs to hold them just under 40 yards below their season Yards-Per-Game average. Cincinnati has held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 21 points. The Bengals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a close win by six points or less — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in seven straight games — and they have payed 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three games in a row. And while their game with Kansas City finished below the 54.5. point total, they have then played 8 of their 11 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. This is a true road game for the Bengals playing the Rams in their SoFi Stadium — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has held six of their last eight opponents to no more than 23 points after their victory against the 49ers — and they only gave up only 27 points in those other two contests. The Rams have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Los Angeles has won six of their last seven games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Rams have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored — and Cincinnati has palled 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Super Bowl between the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (324) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (323) in the NFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-5) won their fifth game in their last six with their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Francisco (12-7) won their fourth straight game with their 13-10 upset victory at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: This is just a very tough set of circumstances for the 49ers. To advance to the Super Bowl, they have to pull off their fourth straight upset while playing their fourth straight game on the road. While I appreciate that the Niners are a veteran team that runs the ball and plays stout defense — two skill sets that tend to travel — the wear and tear of all that travel is bound to take a toll on San Francisco. They have a ceiling in their passing game with Jimmy Garoppolo, who had the opportunity to win a Super Bowl a few seasons ago if he could successfully execute Kyle Shanahan’s plays in the fourth quarter against Kansas City. Garoppolo only passed for 130 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception against the Packers last week — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while the Niners have not allowed more than 27 combined points in the playoffs, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 combined points in their last two games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored by seven points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home with the Total in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Additionally. the Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has lost their last six games against San Francisco after following up their 31-10 loss on the road to the Niners on November 15th with their 27-24 loss in overtime at home in the final week of the regular season on January 9th. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (324) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (323) and the Los Angeles Rams (324) in the NFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-7) won their fourth straight game with their 13-10 upset victory at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (14-5) won their fifth game in their last six with their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers grinded out a low-scoring game where they only managed 212 yards while failing to score an offensive touchdown — but they held the Packers to just 263 total yards. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 total yards in their last game. They held Green Bay to just 67 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing at least 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Niners’ improvement on defense corresponds with the decision to move Arik Armstead into the interior of their defensive line. Since Week Nine, San Francisco is second in the NFL to Tampa Bay with 222 pressures on the quarterback. And after allowing 4.4 rushing Yards-Per-Carry in the first eight weeks of the season, the 49ers held their opponents to just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry since — and their two playoff opponents have only averaged 3.5 YPC. Armstead thrives against the Rams. In his five games against them, he has 23 tackles, four hits on the quarterback, three sacks, two more tackles for loss, a forced fumble, and two knockdowns on passes. Armstead’s partnership with Nick Bosa allows the Niners to only rush three or four rushers — and this approach stymies Matthew Stafford and the Sean McVay offense. When only rushing three or four defenders, San Francisco still generates pressure in the 30% of their pass rushes in their two games against the Rams this season. Stafford has a 140 Passer Rating when blitzed this season — he chews up a defense with fewer defenders. But the Niners only blitzed 12.5% of the time against Stafford in their first two games. While holding Los Angeles to just 17.0 PPG, they sacked Stafford seven times while inducing four interceptions from three or four-man pressure. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They held the Buccaneers to just 51 rushing yards — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. And while Tom Brady passed for 308 net yards against them last week, they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at last 250 passing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They hold their guests to just 19.7 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams very familiar with the approaches of the two offensive head coaches. This is the third matchup between these two teams in 11 weeks. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (323) and the Los Angeles Rams (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (321) and the Kansas City Chiefs (322) in the AFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (12-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 19-16 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas City (14-5) won their 11th game in their last 12 contests with their 42-36 victory in overtime against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played seven straight Overs which might compel some technical handicappers to endorse the Under for this game. With the Total set at 54.5 in most spots, the number is not artificially inflated by bettors expecting the roulette wheel to continue to land on red. Kansas City has had eight of their 19 games see a Total of 54 or higher — and another four of their games were just a point lower at 53 or 53.5. A Total in the mid-50s is the standard operating procedure for the Chiefs. This is a team that has scored 42 points in each of their playoff games this postseason — and if they approach that number this afternoon, we are already in Over territory. Kansas City has played 4 straight Overs after playing at least three straight Overs in their previous games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Overs after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 straight Overs when playing at home as the favorite — and they have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Safety Tyron Mathieu is expected to play this afternoon according to the Chiefs’ comments yesterday afternoon. While that will help in their pass defense, I concluded that the Bengals will likely have to abandon their attempts to control the Time of Possession to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Cincinnati’s banged-up offensive line has contributed to them having just a 51% success rate in Power Rushing situations — the second-worst mark in the NFL. The Kansas City run defense improved in the second half of the season after the acquisition of defensive end Melvin Ingram, which allowed them to move Chris Jones back to his preferred spot on the interior of the line. After ranking 30th in Run Defense in the first half of the season according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders, they improved to 15th in that metric over the second half of the season. The Bengals ran the ball just 19 times for 60 yards in their meeting on January 2nd. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win on the road. And while the Bengals have won five of their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. They did give up 353 yards to the Titans last week — and they have played 5 straight Overs after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati upset Kansas City in Week 17 in a 34-31 victory where they rallied from a 28-17 halftime deficit to win the game as a 3.5-point underdog. Joe Burrow completed 30 of 39 passes for 446 yards with four touchdowns to lead the Bengals to the victory. After failing to score more than a field goal in the second half, look for Kansas City to get off to a fast start again — but with Burrow keeping up again but with the offense abandoning the run. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (321) and the Kansas City Chiefs (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321) in the AFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-5) won their 11th game in their last 12 contests with their 42-36 victory in overtime against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cincinnati (12-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 19-16 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City’s ability to survive their instant-classic with the Bills should only embolden them to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight season. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. And while they have covered the point spread in both their playoff games as a favorite this postseason, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. The Chiefs did surrender 422 yards to Josh Allen and the Bills — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has a significant experience edge with this team playing in their fourth straight AFC Championship Game. It starts with Patrick Mahomes who owns an 8-2 record in the postseason with his two lone losses being to Tom Brady. In his eight playoff games at home, Mahomes is 7-1 with 23 touchdown passes, just one interception, and a Passer Rating of 120.5. In the playoffs this year, Mahomes is completing 76% of his passes for 782 yards with 10 touchdown passes and one interception in his two games. The early-season problems he was encountering with two-high safety looks are long gone. The emergence of two dangerous counter options to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have helped. In the last five games, wide receiver Byron Pringle had 24 receptions from 33 targets for 232 yards with five touchdowns. Running back Jerick McKinnon has 33 touches for 220 yards in the two playoff games. And Mahomes brings two additional important intangibles to these playoff games. First, he is more likely to do damage with his legs. He ran the ball seven times for 69 yards against the Bills. In his ten playoff games, he has 52 rush attempts with a 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average with five touchdowns — as opposed to the 3.8 rush attempts he averages per game in the regular season with only eight touchdowns in those 63 games. Second, Mahomes protects the football. He has thrown only one interception in his last 192 pass attempts. In his postseason career, he throws an interception once in every 77 throws and he has never fumbled. Kansas City hosts this game at Arrowhead Stadium where they will enjoy a significant home-field edge with a very loud crowd disrupting Joe Burrow. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games at home. Cincinnati is happy to be in this position — but they might impact their sense of urgency. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. I love Burrow — but they beat a flat Titans team last week that was the lowest-rated number one or two seed according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati only outgained their opponents in the regular season by +5.1 net Yards-Per-Game. On the road, the Bengals are getting outgained by -18.1 net YPG despite playing only two playoff teams away from home in the regular season (and they got outgained last week to the Titans). Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans with head coach Zac Taylor failing to change schemes to offer him more short or intermediate routes (or a screen pass!) rather than condemning him to yet another coverage sack. Cincinnati does not have a good offensive line. And I think the Chiefs’ have a significant advantage with Andy Reid along with his coordinators Eric Bienemy and Steve Spagnuolo. The Bengals are an organization that is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City will not take this Bengals team lightly after getting upset by them in Cincinnati on January 2nd by a 34-31 score as a 3.5-point underdog. The Chiefs blew a 14-point lead in that game while committing 10 penalties and too many mental errors in that game. Mahomes has won four of his five opportunities in the playoffs to avenge a regular-season loss to their opponent — and Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (317) and the Kansas City Chiefs (318) in their AFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Buffalo (12-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 47-17 win against New England as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Kansas City (13-5) has won ten of their last eleven games after their 42-21 victory against Pittsburgh last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills are scoring 33.4 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have scored at least 27 points in six straight games. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Now they go on the road where they are scoring 30.8 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Buffalo has also played 6 straight road games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 straight Overs after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. They host this game where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Bills’ 38-20 upset victory in Kansas City on October 10th as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chiefs have played 4 straight Overs when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (317) and the Kansas City Chiefs (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317) in their AFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-5) has won ten of their last eleven games after their 42-21 victory against Pittsburgh last Sunday as an 11-point favorite. Buffalo (12-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 47-17 win against New England as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: After an early-season slide where they lost four of their six games, this Kansas City team was driven to redeem themselves from losing in last year’s Super Bowl are clicking on all cylinders now. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kansas City seized the better record over the Bills in the regular season which allows them to host this crucial showdown. Patrick Mahomes has won six of his seven starts at home at Arrowhead Stadium while averaging 310.3 passing Yards-Per-Game. He has thrown 20 touchdown passes to just one interception in his seven home playoff games while posting a 120.1 Passer Rating. Head coach Andy Reid will give him the green light to run the ball more given the winner-takes-all stakes of this game. The Chiefs’ defense has been tough at home as well as they hold their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game and just 337.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. The Chiefs have also found themselves yet another weapon on offense with the emergence of running back Jerick McKinnon. The former Vikings and Niners player had 18 touches for 143 yards from scrimmage against the Steelers last week while giving Mahomes a nice weapon in the screen passing game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo propped up their stats with some blowout wins (mostly against lesser opponents) this season. But they lost all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — one of the biggest reasons why I side with Mahomes versus Josh Allen tonight. The Bills are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week against the Patriots, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. But now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Buffalo has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Bills’ 38-20 upset victory in Kansas City on October 10th as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chiefs left many points on the field with many mental miscues and a few bad bounces that ruined drives. KC was also missing defensive stars Chris Jones and Charvarius Ward to injury in that game — and they had yet to acquire Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh. After adding Ingram to their defensive line, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo moved Jones back to his preferred inside position on the line — and the defense immediately improved. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (315) in their NFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (14-4) has won four in a row and eight of their last nine with their 31-15 victory against Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (13-5) won their sixth game in their last seven with their 34-11 victory against Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while their game with the Eagles finished just Under the 47.5 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. The Buccaneers get to host this game at Raymond James Stadium where they are 8-1 this season with a +16.1 net point differential. They score 33.0 Points-Per-Game and average 409.8 total Yards-Per-Game at home while holding their opponents to just 16.9 PPG and 328.9 total YPG. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 9 games after winning at least five or six of their last seven contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. The Rams will be without left tackle Andrew Whitworth for this game which will put pressure on Matthew Stafford without the All-Pro protecting his blindside. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 range. Interestingly, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (315) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316) in their NFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-5) won their sixth game in their last seven with their 34-11 victory against Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Tampa Bay (14-4) has won four in a row and eight of their last nine with their 31-15 victory against Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams score 27.4 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored 28 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Over is 9-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a victory by double-digits. Furthermore, the Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 14 points. And while their win against the Cardinals finished Under the 48.5 point total, Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Rams travel east for this game — the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games on the road. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5. to 49 point range. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog in all situations — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.0 PPG and averaging 409.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Buccaneers have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams won the first meeting between these two teams on September 26th in a 34-24 victory with the Total set at 55. That was the 5th straight Over between these two teams. The Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (315) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (303) and the Green Bay Packers (304) in their NFC Divisional playoff series. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (11-7) won their third straight game and fifth of their last six contests with their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog in the wild card playoff round last Sunday. Green Bay (13-4) take the field again after their 37-30 upset loss at Detroit as a 4-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 9th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have scored at least 23 points in nine of their last ten games after their victory in Dallas last week. San Francisco has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay on the road where they have played 12 of their last 18 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5. or higher. The Niners have also played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Packers return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in six of their last seven games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight games in the playoffs Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (303) and the Green Bay Packers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303) in their NFC Divisional playoff series. THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-4) takes the field again after their 37-30 upset loss at Detroit as a 4-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 9th. San Francisco (11-7) won their third straight game and fifth of their last six contests with their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog in the wild card playoff round last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Even assuming that Jimmy Garoppolo is close to full strength with his nagging thumb and shoulder injuries that have kept him questionable to play all week, this is a very challenging set of circumstances for the 49ers. They have pulled off two straight upset victories in must-win circumstances after reaching the playoffs in Week 18 with their underdog win in Los Angeles against the Rams. This is the third straight game on the road for the Niners — and that is a ton of air travel for a team that has flown back home after their last two wins. Now San Francisco travels across the country east for the second straight week — albeit on a short six-day week as well. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least two straight games on the road. And while San Francisco has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their only three games in the last three seasons under head coach Kyle Shanahan when they had covered the point spread three games in a row. I do worry about an even 100% Garoppolo if asked to keep up with Aaron Rodgers tonight. How will he perform in weather conditions in the single digits and probably below zero with the wind chill? He struggles when put off script — he is completing just 54% of his passes in the second half in playoff games when off script with a low Passer Rating of 49 in those situations. Green Bay is rested and ready for the challenge — and they should be feisty after getting upset by the Lions. Granted, head coach Matt LaFleur rested starters in the second half of that game — but the Packers went into halftime trailing by a 17-13 score despite Rodgers playing the entire first half. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Packers get some reinforcements back on defense with linebacker Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus and cornerback Jaire Alexander all expected to return to action tonight. The offensive line also gets starters David Bakhtiari, Billy Turner, and Josh Myers back from injury. Rodgers will not mind the frigid temperatures — he has a 29-1 record straight-up when the temperature is no higher than 32 degrees. Against playoff teams this season, Green Bay has a 5-0 record with Rodgers throwing 10 touchdown passes with only one interception. The Packers are 8-0 at home in Lambeau Field this season with a +15.8 net point differential. Rodgers has 20 touchdown passes and just one interception in those games with the offense scoring 30.6 PPG. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to just 16.8 PPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Dealing with the physical style of play that the 49ers bring to the table under Shanahan had been a problem for the Packers — highlighted by their 37-20 loss in the playoffs two years ago when they gave up 285 rushing yards. But that game was in San Francisco — and Green Bay has won both meetings with the Niners since including a 30-28 victory back at Levi’s Stadium on September 26th. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Television Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (301) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (302) in their AFC Divisional Round playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (11-7) advanced from the AFC Wild Card playoffs with their 26-19 win against Las Vegas as a 6-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (12-5) returns to action after their 28-25 victory at Houston as an 11-point favorite on January 9th in their final regular-season game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati should continue to build off the momentum they have built late in the season. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And while they allowed 385 yards to the Raiders last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow has passed for 525, 446, and then 244 yards last week in his last three starts (he did not play in the Bengals’ final regular-season game against Cleveland). He has 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions in these last three starts — and completed at least 70.6% of his passes with at least a 110.4 Passer Rating in each of those three games. Burrow may have the best trip of wide receivers in the NFL with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd of the Bengals. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee is on a three-game winning streak — but they were almost upset for the second time this season by the lowly Texans in their narrow three-point win to end the regular season. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Tennessee only outgained their opponents by +12.7 net Yards-Per-Game. Their record was propped up by a 6-2 record in games decided by one possession. The analytics do not look at this team well. Not only do the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders consider the Titans the weakest top seed in the conference playoffs ever, but they also rank below all previous AFC or NFC playoff second seeds.

FINAL TAKE: I do take DVOA with a grain or two of salt. That metric does not attempt to incorporate Time of Possession finding it either too not relevant or difficult to measure its impact accurately. That is a problem when attempting to assess the value of a running team like Tennessee. And the Titans have not been at full strength on offense for most of the season. But Julio Jones has largely been a disappointment even when on the field this season — and there sure seems to be an assumption that running back Derrick Henry can simply flip the switch and immediately return to midseason form. I am skeptical he can be that good. I know that the Titans are 8-0 straight and ATS when head coach Mike Vrabel has at least eight days to prepare. But the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. I’m siding on Burrow as an underdog against Tannehill. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (301) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (301) and the Tennessee Titans (302) in their AFC Divisional Round playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (11-7) advanced from the AFC Wild Card playoffs with their 26-19 win against Las Vegas as a 6-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (12-5) returns to action after their 28-25 victory at Houston as an 11-point favorite on January 9th in their final regular-season game.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While the Titans’ offense has not been at full-strength often this season, Ryan Tannehill will have all his weapons this afternoon with running back Derrick Henry and wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones all expected to play. Tennessee scored 27.3 Points-Per-Game even at less than full strength on offense in their four victories against playoff teams in San Francisco, the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City, and Buffalo. The Titans enter the postseason averaging 27.3 PPG in their last three games after scoring 34 and 28 points in their last two contests. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The Titans are on a three-game winning streak — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tannehill completed 23 of 32 passes for 287 yards with four touchdown passes while leading the offense to 425 total yards in their final regular-season game. Tennessee has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Titans have also played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. And while the Texans gained 353 yards against the Tennessee defense, the Titans have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Davis Mills led a Houston offense that passed for 289 yards in that game. While Tennessee has a potent pass rush, their defensive backs do get burned — they rank 25th in the NFL by allowing 245 passing YPG. Here comes perhaps the most dynamic trio of wider receivers in the NFL in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd of the Bengals. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow has passed for 525, 446, and then 244 yards last week in his last three starts (he did not play in the Bengals’ final regular-season game against Cleveland). He has 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions in these last three starts — and completed at least 70.6% of his passes with at least a 110.4 Passer Rating in each of those three games. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while the Bengals have won four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least four or five of the last six games. But the Cincinnati defense did give up 385 yards to the Raiders last week — and they have played 5 straight Overs after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The injuries to defensive tackles Larry Ogunjobi and Mike Daniels further expose a suspect defense that already ranked just 25th in the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 trips to Nashville to play the Titans. The Over is 12-5-1 in Tennessee’s last 18 games against teams with a winning record. The Titans will score their share of points in this game with their weapons back in tow — but Burrow should be able to keep things interesting for the Bengals. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (301) and the Tennessee Titans (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (151) and the Los Angles Rams (152) in their NFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Arizona (11-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 38-30 upset loss to Seattle as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped with their 27-24 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arizona was hit hard by injuries in the second half of the season including playing three games with quarterback Kyler Murray. The loss of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has hurt the offensive significantly — but it does look like defensive end J.J. Watt will be available to play some snaps tonight. The decline on defense corresponded to Watt’s shoulder injury.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152) in their NFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Arizona (11-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 38-30 upset loss to Seattle as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped with their 27-24 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona took a step back in the second half of the season with five losses in their last eight games after an 8-1 start. I thought the Cardinals were overvalued after that fast start (and I am not the biggest Kliff Kingsbury fan) — but they are bit undervalued in this spot. Arizona was hit hard by injuries in the second half of the season including playing three games with quarterback Kyler Murray. The loss of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has hurt the offensive significantly — but it does look like defensive end J.J. Watt will be available to play some snaps tonight. The decline on defense corresponded to Watt’s shoulder injury. The pressure appears to be off this team — and that makes them dangerous. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Cardinals defense should play better after allowing the Seahawks (emboldened in the role of the spoiler in what Pete Carroll described as their “Super Bowl”) to generate 431 yards with a 7.70 Yards-Per-Play average. Arizona has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And in their last 38 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP, they  have covered the point spread in 27 of these contests. The Cardinals played their best football on the road where they were 8-1 with an average winning margin of +10.8 net Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit holds their home hosts to just 18.9 Points-Per-Game and 319.0 total YPG. They are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as the underdog. Furthermore, Arizona is 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Cardinals had a 5-2 record against the playoff teams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of these 7 games. Los Angeles only won twice in their seven games against playoff teams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 7 games against playoff teams. The Rams took a 17-3 lead into the first half last week against the 49ers before getting outscored by a 24-7 margin in the second half. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after taking a two-touchdown lead or more in the first half of their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Despite pundits wanting to believe in the high-ceiling of this LA All-Star team, there are significant flaws. Matthew Stafford has demonstrated that perhaps he was not an innocent victim during his time playing for the Detroit Lions after committing nine turnovers in the last four games. He has thrown four pick-sixes this season — yet head coach Sean McVay continues to call plays that put his new shiny toy at quarterback in the best position to succeed. Stafford struggles against pressure up the middle — and that is an area where the return of Watt could make a big difference. The season-ending injury to Robert Woods has played a role in Stafford’s inconsistent play in the second half of the season. He has thrown 11 interceptions in since Week 10 — and his Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game has dropped a full yard to 7.6 YPA over that span. While Stafford was lighting up the league with a Passer Rating of 111.6 in the first nine weeks of the year, he only had a Passer Rating of 93.7 in the final nine weeks. A decline of the running game has not helped with Darrell Henderson going on Injured Reserve. Los Angeles has only ran for 73 and 64 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not rushing for more than 75 yards in two straight games. The defense has underperformed expectations as well. They allowed 449 yards to San Francisco last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where, as Stafford’s wife will attest, they will not necessarily have a vociferous crowd advantage. Arizona fans will travel as Niners fans did last week. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona upset the Rams in LA in the first meeting on October 3rd by a 37-20 score. Los Angeles won the rematch on December 13th in Glendale by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing on the road motivated to avenge a loss to their opponent. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (150) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-5) won their ninth game in their last ten in a 28-24 win at Denver as an 11-point favorite on Saturday. Pittsburgh (9-7-1) has won two games in a row to sneak into the playoffs after their 16-13 victory in overtime at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh seemed resigned that their season was over after they upset the Ravens last week — but the Colts getting upset by the Houston Texans changed their playoff odds dramatically. Now Big Ben Roethlisberger and this Steelers’ team is playing with proverbial house money — but the casinos on the strip also give away “house money” for a reason. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and the have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games. Pittsburgh lost five of their seven games against teams who made the playoffs — and they failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 7 games. They got outscored in the regular season by -3.2 net Points-Per-Game — and they were outgained by -45.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Steelers are also just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the Wild Card round. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win against an AFC West rival - and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Kansas City has won six of their nine games against playoff teams this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against these playoff teams.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss in Kansas City on December 26th when they were 10-point underdogs. The Steelers are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — so I am not assigning them much value on that front. The Chiefs have an extra day of rest to prepare for this game — and I expect the game script where Kansas City takes a lead and Roethlisberger will need to rally his team with his arm will produce the events where the double-digit point spread is covered. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (150) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and the Kansas City Chiefs (150) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (9-7-1) has won two games in a row to sneak into the playoffs after their 16-13 victory in overtime at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (12-5) won their ninth game in their last ten in a 28-24 win at Denver as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers made the playoffs on the strength of their defense. They held their last two opponents to just 27 combined points — and three of their last four opponents have not scored more than 14 points. The formula for success tonight for Pittsburgh will be give rookie running back Najee Harris plenty of carries in the attempt to slow this game down to a crawl. The Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played Pittsburgh has played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total after a win on the road against an AFC North opponent. The Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 10 games after winning three of their last four (as they have), the Steelers have played 7 of these games Under the Total. But scoring will be an issue for this Pittsburgh team that averages just 20.2 Points-Per-Game and 315.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Those numbers drop to 19.5 PPG and 312.1 total YPG in their eight games on the road. The Under is a decisive 38-15-1 in their last 54 games on the road — and they have played 29 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. The offense has not picked up during this last season run — they have only scored 19 or fewer points in three of their last four games while not scoring more than 20 points in five of their last seven games. In their last 5 games as a double-digit underdog, the Steelers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chiefs have played their last two games on the road where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after completing a two-game road trip. They allowed 6.87 and 8.05 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games on defense — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The defense has been a bright spot for this team in the second half of the season — they have held seven of their last ten opponents to 17 points or less with four settling for single digits. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Kansas City has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when a double-digit favorite. And in their last 5 games in the wild card round of the playoffs, the Chiefs have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City dominated the Steelers in a 36-10 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on December 26th last month. These teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in KC Under the Total despite that game sneaking over the 44 point total. Pittsburgh has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 35 points. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and the Kansas City Chiefs (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) enters the postseason having won four of their last five games after their 51-26 win at Philadelphia as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. San Francisco (10-7) has won two in a row and seven of their last nine contests after their 27-24 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas should build off the momentum they continued last week in their easy victory against an undermanned Eagles team. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Cowboys earned the right to host this game where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game. The 49ers may be 6-3 on the road — but Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents. Dak Prescott has his offense clicking right now as they averaged 424.4 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 400 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games. Prescott gives Dallas a significant advantage at quarterback in this game. He has thrown 13 touchdown passes without an interception in his last four starts. The 49ers primarily play cover-3 zone defenses — and Prescott has generated 30 explosive passing plays against zone defenses this season. Furthermore, Prescott has completed 97 of 174 passes for 1357 yards with 17 touchdown passes and just three interceptions against Cover-3 this year. His Passer-Rating of 106.4 against Cover-3 is the fourth best mark this season for all quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 pass attempts. Then there is Jimmy Garoppolo who continues to demonstrate a ceiling to his potential at quarterback. His 10 interceptions he has thrown out of play-action this season have been infuriating. And Jimmy G simply lacks a credible vertical threat for the 49ers. In his 33 passes of more than 20 yards in the air, he has completed 11 of them for 392 yards with three touchdowns but three interceptions. His Passer Rating of 71.8 on passes of 20 or more air yards ranks 28th in the league. Just as importantly when it comes to dictating defensive schemes. Garoppolo only throws it 20 or more yards in the air in 7.8% of his attempts. That number is tied with Tau Tagavailoa and just ahead of Andy Dalton and Daniel Jones in a neighborhood that does not smell of deep playoff run. Garoppolo did completed 23 of 32 passes for 316 yards last week against the Rams while leading the Niners offense to 449 total yards. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (143) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (144) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: New England (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after a 33-24 upset loss at Miami as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (11-6) won their fourth straight game with their 27-10 win against the New York Jets as a 16-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills enter the postseason feeling very good about themselves after holding the hapless Jets to just 53 total yards of offense. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after winning at least four games in a row. But the pressure is on this team and quarterback Josh Allen to reach the AFC Conference Championship Game — at least. Allen enjoyed his nest postseason last year — but remember that those games were played without packed stadiums. The weight of expectations could become heavy on Allen especially with this being a home game. In that respect, facing off against the Patriots in this opening round for the third time this season might very well be the worst-case scenario for this franchise. The Patriots’ defense was tough to score against especially on the road they allowed only 16.0 PPG and 284.1 total YPG. Bill Belichick has had great success in frustrating Allen in his career. Allen completes only 57.1% of his passes against New England in his career while averaging just 215.9 passing YPG and a QBR of 82.7. Allen has not been great in his career in cold weather despite his college experience at Wyoming and his strong arm. His career completion percentage of 62.3% drops to 50.3% in his five games played in below-freezing temperatures. He averages only 166.6 passing YPG in those games with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Belichick should have the Patriots ready to play in this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New England is a tough opponent in the playoffs under Belichick — they have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 14 postseason games including four of their last five playoff games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: While it will not be as windy as the first game between these teams in Buffalo, it will be colder with temperatures dropping into the single digits. Belichick out-coached Sean McDermott in that game — it is hard to match his big-game experience when dealing with the elements like what will be experienced tonight. The Patriots have a situational edge with Belichick calling the shots — expect him to channel the Bill Parcels philosophy of letting the other guy start making coaching mistakes. New England has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games when avenging a loss. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 trips to Buffalo. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (143) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (143) and the Buffalo Bills (144) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: New England (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after a 33-24 upset loss at Miami as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (11-6) won their fourth straight game with their 27-10 win against the New York Jets as a 16-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Josh Allen may garner most of the headlines for the Bills — but don’t sleep on the Buffalo defense under head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Bills have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 Points-Per-Game and 202.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo has allowed just 25 combined points in their last two games. Additionally, the Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests. Buffalo hosts the third meeting between these AFC East rivals where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. Buffalo has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in January. McDermott and Frazier should have their best game plan yet to challenge Patriots’ rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Throw out the first game between these two teams when Jones only attempted three passes in the wind and cold in Buffalo (although that effort does not inspire confidence). In the rematch on December 26th which the Bills won by a 33-21 score as a 1-point underdog, Jones completed only 14 of 32 passes for 145 yards with two interceptions. The former Alabama quarterback might have hit a wall to close out the season. Since Week 14, Jones only completed 59.9% of his passes as compared to his 67.6% completion percentage for the season. Jones was much more effective when playing at home as well where completed 68.1% of his passes while averaging 249.1 passing Yards-Per-Game with 16 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. His Quarterback Rating at home is 97.5. But on the road, while Jones’ completion percentage only drops to 66.8%, he averages just 194.9 passing YPG with six TD passes and six interceptions — and his QBR falls to 85.4. Jones will not have Isaiah Wynn protecting his blind side either with the left tackle out with a hip and ankle injury. The Patriots were content to grind out lower-scoring games on the road with their defense that allowed only 16.0 PPG and 284.1 total YPG. Bill Belichick has had great success in frustrating Allen in his career. Allen completes only 57.1% of his passes against New England in his career while averaging just 215.9 passing YPG and a QBR of 82.7. Allen has not been great in his career in cold weather despite his college experience at Wyoming and his strong arm. His career completion percentage of 62.3% drops to 50.3% in his five games played in below-freezing temperatures. He averages only 166.6 passing YPG in those games with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: New England has palled 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Buffalo. The temperatures will be in the single digits for this game although the wind will not be nearly the factor that it was in the first game between these teams this season. Weather conditions must be considered in relation to the subsequent Over/Under number — but suffice to say that frigid temperatures harden the football which negatively impacts placekicking and makes it harder to catch the football. In other words, freezing temperatures certainly do not help produce higher-scoring games. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (143) and the Buffalo Bills (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (141) and the Cincinnati Bengals (142) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (10-7) won their fourth game in a row with their 35-32 upset victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (10-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 21-16 loss at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders had only scored more than 17 points twice in their previous nine games before reaching 35 points in overtime against the Chargers last Sunday night. Las Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Raiders have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Raiders go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Weather will be a factor with temperates expected to drop below freezing with a chance of snow. Quarterback Derek Carr has played five games when the temperature was under at 37 degrees or less: the Raiders never scored more than 17 points in all five of those games. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Bengals won the first meeting between these two teams by a 32-13 score as a 2-point road favorite in Las Vegas on November 21st — but that was a low-scoring contest before Cincinnati scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to pull away. The Bengals only generated 288 total yards in that game — 73.5 yards below their season average. Quarterback Joe Burrow completed 20 of 29 passes but for only 148 yards with Raiders’ defensive coordinate single-high safety coverage and the lowest-blitz rate in the NFL frustrated Burrow with so many pass defenders. Las Vegas is still successfully generating a pass rush with Max Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue without blitzing. The offensive line is an area of weakness for the Cincinnati offense as the 51 sacks that Burrow has suffered is the most in the NFL. The Bengals have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams after the game in November finished well below the 51-point total. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (141) and the Cincinnati Bengals (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (10-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 21-16 loss at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Las Vegas (10-7) won their fourth game in a row with their 35-32 upset victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas benefited from Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley misreading analytics by taking silly chances like going for it on 4th-and-2 on their own 18-yard line to pull the upset last week. Coaching mistakes like that helped the Raiders overcome getting outgained by 94 net yards — but a +2 net turnover margin helped even that game as well. The result had a feel of Las Vegas winning their Super Bowl by giving the home fans their first taste of the playoffs since the club moved from Oakland — made all the sweeter given all the turmoil this team has encountered this season starting with the removal of Jon Gruden as their head coach. An emotional letdown is likely — especially for a team that has pulled off three straight upset wins to reach the playoffs. All four of their games during their current winning streak were decided by just a field goal — and they have benefited from a 7-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession including a 4-0 mark in games that went to overtime. In other words, the Raiders are a few breaks going against them from being an 8-9 (or worse) football team. There were outscored by -3.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and they were outscored by -4.1 PPG when playing on the road. And on the road this teams goes under very challenging circumstances coming from a long overtime game on Sunday Night Football to the opening playoff context on Saturday afternoon — and they have to travel across the country to boot! As it is, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after upsetting a divisional rival as a home underdog. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a close win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in each of their last three games. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Weather will be a factor with temperates expected to drop below freezing with a chance of snow. Quarterback Derek Carr has played five games when the temperature was under at 37 degrees or less: he lost all five games with the Raiders never scoring more than 17 points. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow grew up in Ohio — so he is used to the cold weather. Burrow comes into this game rested after the Bengals clinched home field in the opening round of the playoffs two weeks ago. Their team dominated by second-stringers still were competitive against the Browns — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: These teams played in Las Vegas on November 21st when the Bengals scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to pull away with a 32-13 victory. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — including six of these last nine circumstances. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia dominated a stout Wolverines team — they went into the locker room with a 27-3 lead. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after scoring at least 24 points in the first half in their last game. Georgia has one of the best defenses in college football in years — they held their opponents to just 9.6 Points-Per-Game and 259.4 total Yards-Per-Game this season. But the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are tough to beat when they have a strong offensive attack that comes close to matching their elite defense from season to season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread 22 of their last 32 games on the road after passing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. The X-factor for this Bulldogs’ team is having fourth-year junior J.T. Daniels as an option if Georgia falls behind early once again in this rematch of the SEC Championship Game. The former five-star USC recruit is a gunslinger who led the Bulldogs to a 4-0 record in his four starts last year with the team scoring 37.3 PPG. Daniels unlocks the big-play potential of this offense with his strong arm. Head coach Kirby Smart has been reluctant to turn to Daniels since it would throw fuel on the fire of a quarterback controversy — but that concern goes out the window in the final game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games this season with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 15 games played on a neutral field when favored, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. It is telling that the bookies installed Georgia as the small favorite. Outside the Sagarin Power Ratings (one I don’t pay much attention to, for what that is worth), most of the various power ranking systems conclude that the Bulldogs should be favored (by at least three points). While that does not mean everything to me, it does mean something. Alabama has probably played their best two games of the season in their last two in beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and then overwhelming Cincinnati. Do these two games represent the continued growth and development of this team under head coach Nick Saban? Sure, I give credit to Saban for having his team peaking at the right time. On other hand, college football teams tend to not play their best three games consecutively — so I do expect a performance that comes back down to the season-long numbers that the Crimson Tide demonstrated (that the power rankings systems are evaluating in listing them as a dog now). This Alabama team that survived close scares against LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida (and who lost to a backup quarterback leading Texas A&M) may not be able to help themselves from suffering a letdown. As it is, the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 21 points. They raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead against the Bearcats — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their last opponent to no more than three points in the first half of their last game. Alabama dominated Cincinnati in the ground game by rushing for 301 yards and outgaining them by +227 net rushing yards. But the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. Alabama dominated the Bearcats by outgaining them by +264 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January (when they tend to be overvalued by the betting public) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances in the National Championship Game. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia will have an extra edge on their mind in wanting revenge from their 41-21 upset loss as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Remember, the Bulldogs did not need to win that game — so some of their best plays and concepts (especially on defense) were held back in case of this rematch. Alabama had to leave everything on the table in that game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Georgia Bulldogs (287) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I think the most important evidence in assessing the Over/Under proposition for this game is a quote from Nick Saban when assessing the philosophical shift he oversaw at Alabama in the last few seasons. Saban said: "It used to be if you had a good defense, other people weren't going to score. You were always going to be in the game. I'm telling you. It ain't that way anymore." When confronted with the must-win game for them in the SEC Championship Game against a Georgia defense some were describing as the best unit in college football in years, Saban took an aggressive stance against Kirby Smart’s defense. The Crimson Tide used pace to their advantage by averaging about one additional play for every two minutes their offense was on the field. While Alabama averaged 2.32 plays per minute during the regular season, they amped that up to 2.75 plays per minute against Georgia. The Tide raced out to a 24-17 lead at halftime which helped to get the Bulldogs out of rhythm — and they then controlled the second half. Saban has commented that recent rule changes make it tough even on the best defenses. Playing at a fast tempo puts defenses on their heels and prevents them from substituting players until there is a dead ball. Alabama is highly likely to deploy this strategy again. Against Cincinnati, the formula for success was running the football since the strength of the Bearcats defense was their secondary. The strength of the Bulldogs defense is their front seven — so going after their secondary makes sense. Quarterback Bryce Young passed for 421 yards against Georgia with a 9.64 Yards-Per-Attempt average with seven passes generating at least 20 yards. Granted, he had the services of junior wide receiver John Metchie who caught six passes in the first half before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. Alabama still has an embarrassment of riches in talent at wide receiver — especially with some freshmen who have had more than a month to continue their development. The Crimson Tide was third in the nation by scoring 41.4 Points-Per-Game— they are prepared to survive high-scoring games. It is telling that Alabama has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing in January. They have also played 33 of their last 55 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. Additionally, the Crimson Tide have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win by at least 21 points. And while Alabama flexed their muscles on defense by holding Cincinnati to just 218 total yards, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 225 total yards in their last game. The Crimson Tide has also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Georgia took a page out of the Alabama playbook by using tempo to put the Michigan defense on their heels early and often. the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. Bennett had eight receivers with multiple catches against the Wolverines. This is the approach I expect to see from the Bulldogs in this rematch — and I suspect Smart will think he needs to put 30 points on the scoreboard to win this game even with his elite defense. Georgia averaged 7.73 Yards-Per-Play against Michigan — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their last game. And while the Bulldogs have generated 328 and 340 passing yards in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 325 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is the second-lowest total in an Alabama game all season with the SEC Championship being the only game when the Tide had an Over/Under in the 40s. The Crimson Tide have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. I expect both teams to get at least into the mid-20s in what should be a fast-paced game. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Georgia Bulldogs (287) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (481) and the Las Vegas Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (9-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-13 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (9-7) is on a three-game winning streak after their 23-20 upset win at Indianapolis as an 8.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a road underdog — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Over the Total when playing at home after a win on the road. Las Vegas has only allowed 15.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have benefited from some favorable opponent quarterback situations during their winning streak. They beat a Cleveland Browns team ravaged by COVID three weeks ago who had to resort to three-stringer Nick Mullens at quarterback. They faced Broncos’ backup quarterback Drew Lock two weeks ago — and they then got Carson Wentz not at 100% last week after the unvaccinated quarterback returned from his inevitable case of COVID. They return home where the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Over is also 11-2-1 in their last 14 home games as an underdog. The Raiders do expect to play tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs who are both listed as questionable — so that should help their offensive attack. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games. Since Week 11, the Chargers lead the NFL in total offense and rank second in scoring. They are scoring 30.3 PPG and averaging 395.3 total YPG in their last three games. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert leads the NFL in third-down effectiveness — and that includes Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 4 straight Overs against AFC foes — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in January. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against fellow AFC West rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (481) and the Las Vegas Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (9-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-13 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (9-7) is on a three-game winning streak after their 23-20 upset win at Indianapolis as an 8.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders come off two straight upset wins after they beat Denver at home by a 17-13 score as a 1-point underdog two weeks ago. Las Vegas has benefited from some favorable opponent quarterback situations during their winning streak. They beat a Cleveland Browns team ravaged by COVID three weeks ago who had to resort to three-stringer Nick Mullens at quarterback. They faced Broncos’ backup quarterback Drew Lock two weeks ago — and they then got Carson Wentz not at 100% last week after the unvaccinated quarterback returned from his inevitable case of COVID. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least two games in a row. Las Vegas got outgained in yardage by the Colts, 362-326. The Raiders have been fortunate with a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game on the season. They only managed to rush for 85 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has not been an effective team on offense — especially after Jon Gruden was let go by the franchise. The Raiders rank 25th in Third Down Percentage and 29th in Red Zone Scoring. They expect to play tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs who are both listed as questionable — but it remains a question how effective they can be playing through their injuries. Las Vegas is scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have scored more than 17 points just twice in their last eight games. They are 4-4 at home despite getting outscored by -4.4 PPG. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games. Since Week 11, the Chargers lead the NFL in total offense and rank second in scoring. They are scoring 30.3 PPG and averaging 395.3 total YPG in their last three games. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert leads the NFL in third-down effectiveness — and that includes Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC West opponents — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in January. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against the Raiders.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas wants to avenge a 28-14 loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles on October 4th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 14 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). Best of luck for us  — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-7) won their third game in their last four contests with a 23-7 win against Houston as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-4) is on a five-game winning streak after their 20-19 win at Baltimore as a 7-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The news I was waiting on has just been confirmed this afternoon — the 49ers will be without left tackle Trent Williams. The future Hall of Famer who has probably been the most effective left tackle in the game this season is out with an elbow injury that left him questionable all week. Not only does that hurt in the protection against Aaron Donald in the San Francisco passing game, but Williams plays a vital role in the Niners’ run-blocking. Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting quarterback despite his painful thumb injury — but it remains a question how effective he can be with this injury. Garoppolo playing this game probably speaks more to the readiness of rookie quarterback Trey Lance. While he is uber-athletic, Lance holds on to the ball too long and lacks a firm grasp of playing the position at the NFL level after not playing in almost two years after taking last year off with North Dakota State. As it is, the 49ers have only averaged 20.4 Points-Per-Game in their five divisional matchups this season. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by double-digits. The 49ers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. San Francisco’s defense has been playing well — they have held their last four opponents to no more than 23 points. They have held their last three opponents to 13.3 PPG and 266.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as a road underdog. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Niners have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has held their last five opponents to no more than 23 points — and they lead the NFL in sacks which make the loss of Williams on the offensive line for San Francisco a game-changer. the Rams have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 300.3 total YPG. Matthew Stafford completed 26 of 35 passes for 309 yards in their win against the Ravens last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Rams have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games, Los Angeles has played all 6 games Under the Total. The Rams go back home where they have played a decisive 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be motivated to avenge a 31-10 loss in San Francisco on November 15th — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-8) is on a five-game losing streak after their 20-19 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 26-14 upset win against Cleveland as a 1-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams have slim playoff hopes still alive — the winner of this game needs Indianapolis to get upset by Jacksonville as a two-touchdown underdog. That is not likely to happen, of course. And it sure looked like the Steelers put everything into their Monday night win against the Browns in what was Ben Roethlisberger’s likely last game at home in Heinz Field. An emotional letdown appears imminent. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -9.6 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 29.6 PPG and generate 398.0 total Yards-Per-Game. I have little doubt that head coach John Harbaugh will have his team ready to play. The Ravens want to end their losing streak — and they would love to end Roethlisberger’s career with a loss. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. It will be Tyler Huntley under center with Lamar Jackson still nursing his ankle injury. The backup has played well in Jackson’s absence — he has completed 67.5% of his 162 passes with 955 passing yards and another 222 rushing yards on a 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry average in six games. Baltimore is 5-3 at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh won the first game between these two teams by a  20-19 score as a 4-point underdog on December 5th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (469) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 25-22 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (9-7) is on a four-game winning streak after their 20-16 win at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Injuries and COVID plays a defining role in this game — but it is Philadelphia that is impacted more heavily. The Eagles have 11 players on the COVID list. Running back Miles Sanders is out with a hand injury — and Philly may only have rookie Kenneth Gainwell healthy and available in their backfield tonight. Right tackle Lane Johnson is dealing with a knee - and Jalen Hurts is less than 100% with an ankle injury. Given that Philadelphia has already clinched a wildcard spot in the NFC playoffs but they cannot secure a home game next week and have little idea who they will be playing, rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may opt to rest key players including Hurts. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row. And while Philadelphia has only allowed 26 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. This is the 4th time this season that the Eagles are playing at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. Dallas has some COVID issues themselves most notably with rookie sensation Micah Parsons out for this game. Running back Tony Pollard is questionable with a foot injury — and Ezekiel Elliott has been saddled with a knee injury for much of the season. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is out the season with a torn ACL. But Dallas still has quarterback Dan Prescott along with wide receivers Cee Dee Lamb and Amari Cooper. And the Cowboys have plenty to play for despite having clinched the NFC East title when ensures them no worse than the fourth seed. Losses by Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday would put the Cowboys in the position to take the second seed in the NFC playoffs — so head coach Mike McCarthy needs to play for the win tonight. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when they are favored. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — including seven of these last nine occasions. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games this season when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Cowboys have covered the point spread all 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against NFC East opponents — and Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against divisional rivals. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the Eagles in Philadelphia. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (469) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 25-22 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (9-7) is on a four-game winning streak after their 20-16 win at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Injuries and COVID play a defining role in this game. The Eagles have 11 players on the COVID list. Running back Miles Sanders is out with a hand injury — and Philly may only have rookie Kenneth Gainwell healthy and available in their backfield tonight. Right tackle Lane Johnson is dealing with a knee - and Jalen Hurts is less than 100% with an ankle injury. Given that Philadelphia has already clinched a wildcard spot in the NFC playoffs, but they cannot secure a home game next week and have little idea who they will be playing, rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may opt to rest key players including Hurts. As it is, the Eagles have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Philadelphia has played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after a win by seven points or less against an NFC East rival — and they have played 25 of their last 36 home games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Eagles have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two in a row — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after winning two in a row against NFC East foes. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. Philadelphia does not have too much luxury to rest all their starters on defense given roster limitations. They have not allowed more than 18 points in five straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 14.3 Points-Per-Game and 247.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Dallas has some COVID issues themselves most notably with rookie sensation Micah Parsons out for this game. Running back Tony Pollard is questionable with a foot injury — and Ezekiel Elliott has been saddled with a knee injury for much of the season. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is out the season with a torn ACL. But Dallas still has plenty to play for despite having clinched the NFC East title when ensures them no worse than the fourth seed. Losses by Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday would put the Cowboys in the position to take the second seed in the NFC playoffs — so head coach Mike McCarthy needs to play for the win tonight. Outside of their 56-point outburst against a Washington team ravaged by COVID and playing after limited practice time, Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five games. The Cowboys have not given up more than 20 points in six of their last eight contests. Dallas has played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 range.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas won the first meeting between these two teams by a 41-21 score. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road to their opponent. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NFL Saturday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (131) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 loss at Green Bay as a 7.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (7-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 36-10 loss at Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns have not scored more than 24 points in six straight games after their 22 points against the Packers last week. But the Cleveland defense has not allowed more than 24 points in five straight games. The Browns have lost two in a road despite covering the point spread in both those games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing but covering the point spread as an underdog in their last two games. Cleveland did gain 408 yards in Green Bay last Saturday — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Despite their yardage numbers last week, the Browns are still only averaging 311.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games and just 20.0 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5-45 point range. The Browns have played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total in the final two weeks of the season. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 20 points in five of their last six games. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Steelers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They return home where they are allowing only 20.5 PPG — but they are only scoring 20.1 PPG. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. In their last three games, the Steelers are scoring only 19.0 PPG and averaging just 282.0 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be motivated to avenge a 15-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh on October 31st — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (131) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 36-10 loss at Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (7-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 loss at Green Bay as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh still has a narrow path to make the playoffs — but the chances are remote so the weight of playoff expectations are not likely to be heavy. Instead, tonight’s game is being viewed as Big Ben Roethlisberger’s final game at home at Heinz Field. It should be a wild and emotional night for the fans and the team that will want to send out the future Hall of Fame a winner. Roethlisberger loves playing against his childhood team. Big Ben has a 24-2-1 against the Browns in his career with 42 touchdown passes and just 22 interceptions. He has a career Passer Rating of 94.2 against the Browns. Even better, the Steelers have a perfect 14-0 record at home against Cleveland under head coach Mike Tomlin. They should play well tonight after getting handled by the Chiefs last week. Pittsburgh has covered the point speed in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 21 points. The Steelers fell behind early and went into halftime with a 23-0 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game. Pittsburgh had a -2 net turnover margin in that game as well — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Steelers should also play better defense — they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Pittsburgh does get back T.J. Watt back on defense — and they have a 7-2 straight up record this season when Watt plays at least 60% of the snaps on defense. The Steelers are 5-2 at home this year — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored at home by up to three points. Cleveland may be flat after getting eliminated from the playoff race after yesterday’s results. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road. And while Cleveland has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering two of their last three games. The Browns stay on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the last two weeks of the season. They are also just 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games against AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be motivated to avenge a 15-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh on October 31st. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (129) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (130). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (12-3) is on a four-game winning streak with their 24-22 victory against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a mystifying season for Minnesota with all eight of their losses decided by one-scoring margin — and they have held a lead at one in each of those games. But the Vikings have been consistently resilient under head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 43 of their last 62 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings will have to rely on backup Sean Mannion at quarterback with Kirk Cousins out after a positive COVID test. Minnesota is going to rely heavily on running back Dalvin Cook who was removed from the COVID list and will play tonight — but he will be running against a Packers run defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.8 yards-per-carry. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Despite enjoying a +4 net turnover margin at home last week against the Browns, the Packers only managed to gain 311 yards in their narrow victory against a Cleveland team hit hard by COVID. Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 34 passes but for only 202 yards. Green Bay needs to tighten up on defense after allowing the Browns to gain 408 total yards in that game. They seized an early lead and took a 21-12 advantage into halftime before only scoring a field goal in the second half. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game as a favorite but failing to cover the point spread as a favorite. And while Green Bay will be motivated to avenge their 34-31 loss at Minnesota where they were a 1-point favorite, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Mike Zimmer has had success slowing Rodgers down in his coaching career. Zimmer has led Minnesota to a 6-4-1 record against the Packers in his last 11 games as head coach of the Vikings. Getting 13 or so points in a divisional rivalry is a ton -- especially for this talented Minnesota roster that plays everybody close. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (129) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (129) and the Green Bay Packers (130). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (12-3) is on a four-game winning streak with their 24-22 victory against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite enjoying a +4 net turnover margin at home last week against the Browns, the Packers only managed to gain 311 yards in their narrow victory against a Cleveland team hit hard by COVID. Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 34 passes but for only 202 yards. Green Bay needs to tighten up on defense after allowing the Browns to gain 408 total yards in that game. They seized an early lead and took a 21-12 advantage into halftime before only scoring a field goal in the second half. Expect a similar game script against a Vikings’ team playing without Kirk Cousins. Mistakes may be the biggest threat to the Packers tonight — so they are likely to rely heavily on their running game and be satisfied with grinding out a lower-scoring game that re-establishes the confidence of their defense. Green Bay allows only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 338.9 total Yards-Per-Game at home at Lambeau Field. They have played 4 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota will have to rely on backup Sean Mannion at quarterback with Cousins out after a positive COVID test. The former Oregon State has not taken a snap in a regular-season game since 2019. In his career, he has completed only 57.5% of his 74 NFL passes with a mild 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. The Vikings are going to rely heavily on running back Dalvin Cook who was removed from the COVID list and will play tonight. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want to shorten the game by burning time off the clock — and he has had success slowing Rodgers down in his coaching career. Zimmer has led Minnesota to a 6-4-1 record against the Packers in his last 11 games as head coach of the Vikings. Green Bay has only scored more than 23 points against Zimmer’s Minnesota teams twice in their last six encounters. The Packers average 21.6 first downs per game with their offense on the field for 32:34 minutes per game — and the Vikings have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 32 minutes in Time of Possession and 21 first downs per game. Green Bay only averages 0.7 turnovers per game with Rodgers rarely throwing interceptions — and Minnesota has played 6 straight games Under the Total against opponents who do not commit more than 0.75 turnovers per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games — and the Packers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (129) and the Green Bay Packers (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Football Team (114). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-7) has won three in a row with their 34-10 victory against the New York Giants as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (6-9) is on a three-game losing streak after their 56-14 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Football Team is a mess on offense right now after posting their three lowest yardage totals in the last three weeks. They managed only 224 total yards against the Cowboys on December 12th before picking up just 237 yards against the Eagles in a 27-17 loss in Philadelphia on December 21st. Washington only gained 257 yards last week in their debacle in Dallas. The Football Team wants to run the ball to set up the pass but they have only gained 148 yards on the ground in their last two games. To compound matters, star running back Antonio Gibson has been declared out for this game due to COVID. The Football Team has played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Washington has also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss by 21 or more points to an NFC East foe. At least the Football Team should play better on defense after getting embarrassed last week. Dallas generated 497 yards of offense against them — but Washington has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Philadelphia has not allowed more than 18 points in four straight games. They should stymie the Football Team this afternoon with their stout run defense that ranks fourth in the league by allowing only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Philly held the Giants to just 108 passing yards and 192 total yards last week — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles held Washington to just 237 total yards two weeks ago — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 350 yards in two straight games. But look for the Philly offense to struggle — they have played 55 of their last 79 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Jalen Hurts is not 100% with an ankle issue that has limited him to just 45 rushing yards on ten carries in his last two games. Hurts is also regressing in the passing game. Since Week 11, he is completing only 58.2% of his passes which is 26th in the NFL during that span. He has thrown only three touchdown passes with four interceptions since Week 11 — and his Passer Rating of 73.7 since that time ranks 24th in the league. He will also be without his best running back in Miles Sanders who is out with a hand injury. The Eagles have played three straight Overs — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after playing at least three Overs in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Washington is a mess at quarterback with the league seeming to get a book on journeyman quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Head coach Ron Rivera suggested both Heinicke and Kyle Allen could play today. I do expect a spirited effort — and the Football Team has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Football Team (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (283) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (284) in the Sugar Bowl. THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) won their fourth straight game with their 21-16 upset victory as a 7-point underdog against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 4th. Mississippi (10-2) is on a four-game winning streak with seven victories in their last eight game with their 31-21 upset win at Mississippi State as a 2.5-point underdog on November 25th in the Egg Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor should build off their momentum in this game as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win as a 7-point underdog against a Big 12 rival. The Bears have relied on redshirt freshman Blake Shapen at quarterback in the last two games due to the hamstring injury suffered by incumbent starter Gerry Bohanon. But while Shapen is dealing with a shoulder injury now, Bohanan is expected to play which gives Baylor more of a running threat under center as well as the quarterback who engineered their upsets of Oklahoma and Kansas State in November along with Iowa State in October. Led by head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor allows only 19.2 PPG — and that number drops to 17.8 PPG they allowed in their six games played away from home. The Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Mississippi got outgained by Mississippi State five weeks ago by a 420-88 yardage margin while losing the first down battle, 30-23. They won that game by thwarting the Bulldogs in the red zone. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win as a road underdog. Ole Miss has won all four of their games in their winning streak by double-digits — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two in a row by 10 or more points against conference rivals. The Rebels have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games played after a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Baylor Bears (283) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Baylor Bears (283) and the Mississippi Rebels (284). THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) won their fourth straight game with their 21-16 upset victory as a 7-point underdog against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 4th. Mississippi (10-2) is on a four-game winning streak with seven victories in their last eight game with their 31-21 upset win at Mississippi State as a 2.5-point underdog on November 25th in the Egg Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a strong technical play — and we are getting some value with the number with bettors enamored with Lane Kiffin’s offensive acumen. Baylor has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears upset the Cowboys despite only gaining 242 total yards in the game — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They forced four turnovers to help them enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Led by head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor allows only 19.2 PPG — and that number drops to 17.8 PPG they allowed in their six games played away from home. They held their last three opponents to just 16.7 PPG. Mississippi has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rebels did allow 420 yards to the Bulldogs with 336 of those yards in the air. Ole Miss has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 yards in their last game. Despite those numbers, the Rebels’ defense has steadily improved as the season went on under defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. Their bend-but-don’t-break 3-3-5 defense held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG. Mississippi only allowed three opponents to score more than 26 points against them — and that only happened once after October 9th. The Ole Miss scoring has been down as well — they have not scored more than 31 points in seven straight contests. The Rebels have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total playing away from home when playing with at least two weeks in-between games. Ole Miss has played 4 straight Unders when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Baylor has played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Baylor Bears (283) and the Mississippi Rebels (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Rose Bowl between the Utah Utes (281) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (282). THE SITUATION: Utah (10-3) is on a six-game winning streak after winning the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 38-10 victory against Oregon as a 3-point favorite on December 3rd. Ohio State (10-2) had their nine-game winning streak end with their 42-27 upset loss at Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Ohio State may be deflated after missing out on their chance to win the Big Ten Championship and earn a spot in the College Football Semifinals — but this game is an opportunity to get the bad taste out of their mouth from that loss. The Buckeyes have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Ohio State has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after an upset loss where they were favored by at least six points. The Buckeyes gained 458 yards against the tough Wolverines defense — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Redshirt freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud completed 34 of 49 passes for 394 yards in the loss — and the Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Ohio State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after passing for at least 375 yards in their last contest. Stroud will be without two of his targets in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson — but don’t feel sorry for Buckeyes’ fans (ever). Slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is still around after catching 80 balls for 1259 yards. The opt-outs create an opportunity for the top-rated wide receiver in each of the last two season national classes to get more playing time. The Buckeyes scored 45.5 PPG and averaged 551.1 total Yards-Per-Game — and they still have freshman running bac TreVeyon Henderson who was tied for the fourth-best YPC average in the nation. Ohio State has seen at least 63 combined points scored in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Utah has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Utes have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory against a Pac-12 opponent. The Utah offense took another step when head coach Kyle Whittingham inserted quarterback Cameron Rising into his starting lineup in their fourth game. Utah scored at least 28 points in each of their last nine games — and they scored at least 34 points in eight of their last contests. The Utes ranked 19th in the nation in Expected Points Added in the passing attack. They also ranked 10th in Rush Success Rate behind a strong offensive line that helped them fourth in Sack Rate Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: The Ohio State defense got exposed by Michigan who controlled the line of scrimmage against them. Utah’s offensive line should have similar success (which is why I am passing on a Buckeyes’ side play). Michigan rushed for 297 yards — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Ohio State’s defense ranked just 70 in Success Rate Allowed — and they will be without defensive tackle in All-American Haskell Garrett who opted out for the NFL draft. 20* CFB Utah-Ohio State ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the Rose Bowl between the Utah Utes (281) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (280) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (279) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-3) looks to bounce-back from their 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 4th. Kentucky (9-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 52-21 upset victory at Louisville as a 3-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa will have something to prove to get the bad taste out of their mouth from the ugly loss to the Wolverines four weeks ago. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 35 points to a Big Ten rival in their last game. Iowa is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Hawkeyes should respond with a strong effort on defense after not allowing more than 27 points all season before the Big Ten Championship Game. Iowa ranks 12th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed Per Play — and they only allowed 19.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Hawkeyes thrive when they force turnovers — they had a +22 net turnover margin to begin the season which fueled their 6-0 start. They forced multiple turnovers in eight games and ended the season with a +14 net turnover margin. They now face a Wildcats team prone to turning the ball over. Kentucky has a -13 net turnover margin after playing five games where they turned the ball over at least three times. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory by at least 14 points. Kentucky overwhelmed Louisville by controlling the clock for 35:04 minutes and generating 29 first downs. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing a game where they had at least 24 first downs and were on offense for at least 34 minutes. Kentucky has scored 108 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight contests. They will be without their second wideout target in Josh Ali who is out with an injury. But the Wildcats pass defense is vulnerable as they rank 110th in Pass Success Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Iowa has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 bowl games under head coach Kirk Ferentz. 10* CFB Kentucky-Iowa ABC-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (280) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (276) plus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (275) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Penn State (7-5) has dropped two of their last three games after their 30-27 upset loss at Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State is dealing with a handful of opt-outs on both sides of the ball — but this bowl game is the first opportunity for head coach James Franklin to begin working for next season after being on the shortlist for several of the high-profile head coaching jobs last month. This will be a motivated team, particularly on defense with new defensive coordinator Manny Diaz already coaching his first game after he was let go as the Miami (FL) head coach. Franklin recruits well — the cupboard is not bare despite the opt-outs. And this is a team that lost four games by one scoring possession including a four-point loss to Michigan and a field goal loss at Iowa. The Nittany Lions also endured a heartbreaking loss to Illinois in nine overtimes — so this could easily be a nine or ten-win team. They should play well this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread twice in their last three games. Penn State only gained 61 yards on the ground against the Spartans — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game. Franklin will have the best quarterback on the field in this game in junior Sean Clifford who completed 23 of 34 throws for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions against Michigan State. He has blossomed this season under first-year offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich with 20 Big Time Throws which were more than what he had accomplished in his previous two seasons as the Penn State starting quarterback. It is the defense that is the stronger unit for this team. The Nittany Lions ranked fifth in the nation by allowing just 16.8 Points-Per-Game — they are in the top-38 nationally in both run and pass defense. Arkansas is just 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Razorbacks are dealing with several opt-outs as well including their top wide receiver Treylon Burks and defensive lineman Tre Williams who is in trouble with Johnny Law after getting arrested for DUI. The loss of Burks is troublesome since no other wide receiver on the team had more than 33 targets this season. Arkansas does lean heavily on the run as they ran the ball 64% of the time this season — but they will be facing a stout Penn State defense that holds opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Razorbacks have allowed their last three opponents to 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Arkansas is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas is 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored on a neutral field. Penn State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Arkansas-Penn State ESPN Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (276) plus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (269) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (270) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-1) looks to rebound from their 41-24 upset loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan (12-1) won their fifth straight game with their 42-3 victory against Iowa as an 11.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia did not need to beat the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship since their spot in the college football playoff was assured with their undefeated record at the time. Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs coaching staff likely saved some of their tricks for the playoffs and a possible rematch with Alabama in a potential National Championship Game. The 17-point loss with the defense surrendering 536 total yards should have ensured that Smart had a captive audience in practice in preparation for this game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a point spread loss. The encouraging aspect of that setback was the play of quarterback Stetson Bennett who completed 29 of 48 passes for 340 yards with three touchdown passes against the Alabama defense. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Georgia had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack — but they shellshocked the Bulldogs’ defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I do not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan has thrown the ball more than 38 times twice this season. They want to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines want to run inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 34-7 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. Michigan offense slows down significantly if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. Georgia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field when favored. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Georgia Bulldogs (269) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (269) and the Michigan Wolverines (270) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-1) looks to rebound from their 41-24 upset loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan (12-1) won their fifth straight game with their 42-3 victory against Iowa as an 11.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. Alabama only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack — but they shellshocked the Georgia defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I do not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan has thrown the ball more than 38 times twice this season. They want to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines want to run inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 3-47 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Michigan averages 5.3 YPC in their ground game — but Georgia has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 4.75 YPC and they have played 6 straight Unders against opponents who average at least 5.25 YPC. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing games in two straight games. Michigan offense slows down significantly if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team.

But this is also a flawed Georgia offense. They did not score an offensive touchdown against Clemson to open the season. And while they averaged 39.4 PPG for the season, the defenses in the SEC do not appear very stout in hindsight. Alabama was the best defense that the Bulldogs played after that opening game — and after scoring on two of their first three drives, Georgia failed to score on seven of their last nine drives despite trailing in the game. Quarterback Stetson Bennett is not nearly as effective when given a comfortable cushion on the scoreboard. Remove Alabama from consideration and the Michigan defense is better than all the other defenses in the SEC that the Bulldogs have played. They allowed only 16.1 PPG and 316.3 total YPG. Ohio State is the highest-rated scoring and yardage offense in the nation — but they only scored 27 points and ran for 64 yards despite trailing most of that game against the Wolverines. Michigan’s star safety Daxton Hill appears cleared to play tonight after being in the COVID protocols — reports from last night are that he participated in team meetings in Miami after not being with the team most of the week (and the updated CDC guidelines would have required him to be in quarantine if he was still symptomatic and lacked a negative COVID test). The Wolverines have played three straight Overs — but they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. And while Michigan has scored at least 42 points in three straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has played 6 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Head coach Kirby Smart will want to run the football, limit mistakes, and lean on his outstanding defense that will be chippy to re-establish themselves after getting embarrassed by Alabama. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field by 7.5 to 10 points. Michigan’s offense can sputter — but they make big plays in their pass rush led by potential top-five pick Aidan Hutchinson. 25* CFB Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (269) and the Michigan Wolverines (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) in the college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 35-20 victory against Houston in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point favorite on December 4th. Alabama (12-1) won their seventh straight game with a 41-24 victory against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 6-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bearcats held Houston to just 336 total yards in their dominant victory in the AAC Championship Game. Cincinnati has a stout defense that allows only 16.1 Points-Per-Game and just 305.1 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bearcats have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while that game finished Over the 52 point total, Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing their previous game Over the Total. The Bearcats rushed for 210 yards in that win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. And while Cincinnati has scored at least 35 points in four straight games, they have then played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total on the road after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. Additionally, the Under is a decisive 24-5-1 in the Bearcats’ last 390 games as an underdog — and they have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Alabama generated a surprising 536 yards of offense against a shellshocked Georgia defense in the SEC Championship Game. Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards in the win — but the Crimson Tide have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after passing for at least 375 yards in their last contest. Alabama did give up 449 yards with 340 of those yards coming in the air. But the Tide have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite allowing the big numbers, Alabama is still allowing only 20.2 PPG and 304.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has played 5 straight Unders in the College Football Semifinals under head coach Nick Saban. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the Crimson Tide’s last 6 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders on a neutral field as an underdog. 10* CFB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) in the Cotton Bowl college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 35-20 victory against Houston in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point favorite on December 4th. Alabama (12-1) won their seventh straight game with a 41-24 victory against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 6-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama played the best game of their season to overwhelm the Bulldogs and secure their spot in the playoffs. Even with Nick Saban having four weeks to prepare for this game, a letdown is likely. The Crimson Tide is staring at a Group of Five opponent — even after Saban warning them how good this Bearcats team is. As it is, Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they raced out to a 24-17 halftime lead, Alabama has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Generating a +2 net turnover edge in that game played a big role — but the Tide have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover advantage. This remains a team that was just 5-5 ATS against teams playing in bowl games this season. Besides losing to a multi-loss Texas A&M team using a backup quarterback, they survived one-possession games against LSU, Arkansas, Florida and a four-overtime affair with Auburn. Incidentally, they were laying at least 14.5 points as the favorite in all those games. Up until this point, this year’s incarnation is not as dominant as Saban’s National Championship group last season. The offensive line has been given up too many sacks — Bama ranks 67th in Sack Rate allowed and that drops to 75th on passing downs. The running back room is depleted with injures. Drives stall inside the 10-yard line given their ranking 66th in the nation in Goal-to-Go scoring rate. And there are some tough injuries on both sides of the ball with starting cornerback Josh Jobe out with a foot injury and wide receiver John Metchie out the season with the torn ACL he suffered against Georgia. Alabama may not have a reliable second option at receiver (even with all the young talent) to compliment Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams. Cincinnati is loaded with talent in their secondary — headlined by three future NFL players in cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant along with safety Bryan Cook. This gives defensive coordinator Mike Tressel some intriguing matchup options. Tressel is one of the best in the business with an established track record as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State. He can do some things to make sophomore quarterback Bryce Young uncomfortable. Cincinnati has momentum with three straight point spread covers after their comfortable victory against a talented Cougars team. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Despite being on offense for only 19:41 minutes, they averaged 8.89 Yards-Per-Play to generate 400 yards of offense against Houston — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. They held the Cougars to just 86 rushing yards in that game as well — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing at least 100 rushing yards in their last game. The defense allows only 16.1 PPG. They are led by a four-year starting quarterback in Desmond Ridder who will be drafted into the NFL. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against non-conference opponents, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has proven they can match the physicality of elite programs in their 24-13 victory against Notre Dame this season and their 3-point loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl last year. The Bearcats might have upset the Bulldogs last year if not for the first half injury to left tackle James Hudson — they surrendered six sacks in the second half. The Fighting Irish have only lost twice in South Bend in the last four seasons — to Georgia and this Cincinnati team. The Bearcats will not be intimidated. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (261) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (262) in the Las Vegas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Arizona State (8-4) won their third game in their last four games after their 38-15 win against Arizona as a 20-point favorite on November 27th. Wisconsin (8-4) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 23-13 upset loss at Minnesota as a 7-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: There has been a COVID outbreak with the Badgers team — and I still cannot get credible information regarding the extent of this situation. So, it is prudent to assume that key Wisconsin is not impacted (and so I am not upgrading the rating of this play). Regardless of that, this is a letdown spot for the Badgers after they blew their golden opportunity to play for a Big Ten championship if they would have just taken care of business against the Golden Gophers. Motivation is a question in a second-tier bowl game. As it is, Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. The Badgers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. Scoring has been a persistent problem for this team as they averaged only 25.8 Points-Per-Game this season. They scored no more than 20 points five times. Sophomore quarterback Graham Mertz was supposed to raise the level of play on offense for this program as their most decorated incoming recruit at quarterback two years ago — prompting Jack Coan to transfer to Notre Dame. But Wisconsin ranks 116th in the nation in Pass Success Rate and 123rd in the nation in Pass Explosiveness. The Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring no more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 14 points in their last game. The laptops have loved Wisconsin all season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Arizona State had high expectations this season but was a disappointment with four losses. The down point of the year was two nightmare halves of football where they were outscored by Utah and Washington State by a 56-7 margin. But a bowl game offers this team an opportunity to make some amends to underachieving relative to their preseason hype. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. They have opt-outs at running back, wide receiver, and in their back-seven on defense. Those were all positions that were considered areas of depth going back to August — so this game offers opportunities to those players who did not get as much playing time as they hoped. Head coach Herm Edwards is recruiting well for this program. They are led by a third-year starting quarterback in Jayden Daniels — and he is supported by an offensive line that led the nation in Line Yards and helped them rank seventh in the nation in Rush Success Rate. The Sun Devils have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 42 or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has been shaky as a favorite — but they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Arizona State Sun Devils (261) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-2) is on a five-game winning streak after their 45-21 victory against Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan State (10-2) won their second game in their last three games with their 30-27 upset win against Penn State as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite before the news that quarterback Kenny Pickett would forego this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Spartans are now laying about 3.5 points in most locations — and they will be without their top offensive player in running back Kenneth Walker who is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. So, is the value of Pickett worth 8 points plus the loss of Walker? I like Pickett — but I don’t think so. Let’s talk Pitt. They have a capable backup in redshirt junior Nick Patti who has been Pickett’s backup for three seasons. Patti completed 23 of 37 passes substituting for Pickett in September of his freshman year against Delaware in 2017 for 271 yards with two touchdown passes. Patti has completed 12 of 14 passes for 140 yards this season. In his career, Patti has completed 40 of 62 passes for a 64.5% completion percentage, a 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt mark, and only one interception. A key tell regarding how Pitt feels about him was on a fourth-and-one in the second half against Virginia when Pickett had to leave the field because of a short-term injury. Rather than kick a field goal or dial up a running play, offensive coordinator Mark Whipple trusted Patti to deliver a pass — and he drew a pass interference penalty for the first down. Patti has practiced with the first-team offense preparing for this game — and that includes Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison who caught 93 balls for 1479 yards and 17 touchdowns. Patti should have success against a Spartans defense that ranked 106th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 17 or more points. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they held the Demon Deacons to just 295 yards on a just 3.47 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 3.75 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. Michigan State relied on Walker to take almost 60% of their rushing attempts this season — he averaged a robust 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Freshman Jordan Simmons averages 4.2 YPC — but he is a dropoff. The Spartans will struggle to run the football against this stout Panthers' run defense that ranked fifth in the nation by allowing just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Pitt has had a top-ten run defense for two straight seasons under head coach Pat Narduzzi — and they have held their last six opponents to under 3.0 YPC. Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has not been as effective when relied on to be the primary source of the offense. He comes off his two worst games this season in a drubbing against Ohio State before their upset win against Penn State. Pro Football Focus gave him grades below 60 for both games — and he had three turnover-worthy plays with zero Big Time Throws in those contests. Sparty relies on big plays — Thorne had a PFF rating of 92.0 on throws of at least air yards. But on throws less than 20 air yards, his PFF grade drops to 72.0 (C- range if graded by a teacher). The Panthers rank a solid 36th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win at home. They are also just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Look for the Panthers to be inspired to prove they were more than just a Heisman Trophy Finalist at quarterback — and Narduzzi would love to beat his old team where he served as defensive coordinator for years. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (257) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (258) in the Music City Bowl. THE SITUATION: Purdue (8-4) is on a two-game winning streak after their 44-7 victory against Indiana as an 18.5-point favorite on November 27th. Tennessee (7-5) has won two in a row after their 45-21 victory against Vanderbilt as a 33-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue has a gunslinger quarterback and a stout defense -- this combo should keep them competitive in this bowl game. Aidan O’Connell completed 73.5% of his passes for 3178 yards with 28 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions while averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. In his last four games, O’Connell completed 77% of his passes with a 407 passing YPG average with 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions. He will be without two of his favorite targets in David Bell and Milton Wright. Bell is opting out to prepare for the NFL and Wright is injured. But O’Connell still has plenty of reliable targets in an offense that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 340.2 passing Yards-Per-Game: Jackson Anthrop caught 48 passes for 496 yards with five touchdowns; wide receiver T.J. Sheffield caught 33 passes for 264 yards with four touchdowns; tight end Payne Durham caught 40 passes for 382 yards and four touchdowns. The Boilermakers’ defense held opponents to just 20.5 PPG and 341.7 total YPG. Purdue was 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 194.6 passing YPG. They rank 28th in opponent’s Success Rate on defense — and they rank 20th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per Play. The Boilermakers pulled off upsets against Michigan State and Iowa earlier in the season when they were both ranked in the top-five in the nation at the time. After losing to Ohio State in mid-November, Purdue bounced back to beat Northwestern by a 32-14 score before their win against the Hoosiers to end their regular season. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row by double-digits against Big Ten opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog under head coach Jeff Brohm. Tennessee has been inconsistent all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Volunteers rushed for 285 yards against the Commodores — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Tennessee has a potent offense that averages 38.8 PPG — but they also allow 27.5 PPG and 404.6 total YPG. On the road, the Volunteers give up 39.0 PPG and 521.8 total YPG in their four games away from Knoxville. The Tennessee pass defense allows 251.4 passing YPG — they allow 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt and rank 62nd in Pass Success Rate allowed. The Vols fail to generate much of a pass rush — they rank 116th in their Pass Rush Grade. O’Connell thrives in clean pockets — Pro Football Focus grades him at 92.2 when not under pressure with an adjusted completed percentage of 80.8%.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and Purdue has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Volunteers have a geographical advantage with this game being played a few hours west in Nashville from their Knoxville campus — but if you think this afternoon game is going to attract enough Tennessee fans who are going to be consistently loud enough for this bowl game to disrupt the snap count of the Boilermakers on offense, then I have some beachside property in Tennessee I would like to sell you. Most of the Tennessee players have probably never played in Nissan Stadium — so there is not a familiarity advantage. The relative advantage of having more fans cheering in a bowl game is perhaps the most overrated intangible deployed by lazy pundits. This is not “white-out” night game in Knoxville against a hated rival; it's a quicker bus ride. 10* CFB Music City Bowl ESPN Special with the Purdue Boilermakers (257) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (255) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (256) in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. THE SITUATION: South Carolina (6-6) enters this bowl game coming off a 30-0 shutout loss to Clemson as an 11.5-point underdog on November 27th. North Carolina (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-30 loss at North Carolina State as a 5.5-point underdog on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina exceeded expectations this season in the first year of rookie head coach Shane Beamer. The son of legendary head coach Frank Beamer lacked head coaching experience after serving as the assistant head coach and tight end’s coach at Oklahoma from 2018-2020. Beamer inherited 14 starters from a team that finished 2-8 last season. The Gamecocks have steadily improved this season — and upset victories against Florida and Auburn in November put them in a position to be bowl eligible. Beamer will be using sixth-year senior Zeb Noland at quarterback this afternoon after injuries at the position compelled him to the graduate assistant to remove his coaching duties to take the field. Noland was originally recruited by Iowa State before playing at North Dakota State. In four starts, Noland made six “big-time” throws while only committing one turnover-worthy play. He protects the football which will help the defense keep South Carolina in the game. The Gamecocks only gained 206 yards against the stout Clemson defense — but they are then 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jason Brown is in the transfer portal and sophomore quarterback Luke Doty suffered a season-ending injury in October — so this will be Noland’s game. Running back ZaQuandre White is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL — but South Carolina has freshman MarShawn Lloyd to turn to as he prepares to take on the lead back role next season. Lloyd is a former top-50 recruit. The Gamecocks have a good defense that ranks in the top-30 in opponent Finishing Drives. South Carolina also ranked seventh in the nation by allowing only 178.8 passing YPG — and they were tied for tenth in the FBS with 15 interceptions. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Tar Heels generated 299 yards on the ground against the Wolfpack — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. North Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a bye week. Quarterback Sam Howell is playing in his last game for the Tar Heels before preparing for the NFL draft — but the problem for this team all season has been their defense. North Carolina allows 31.6 PPG and 407.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Tar Heels were also winless in their five games away from home with the offense sputtering with just 23.8 PPG. Pass protection was an ongoing problem with North Carolina surrendering 45 sacks. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC.

FINAL TAKE: South Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field as an underdog. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Duke’s Mayo Bowl ESPN Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (255) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) won their fifth straight game to close out the regular season with a 30-0 victory at South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on November 27th. Iowa State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 48-14 victory against TCU as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson took a step back this season due to the drop-off in play at quarterback. Sophomore D.J. Uiagalelei struggled to fill the big shoes left by Trevor Lawrence who left for the NFL after his junior season. Yet the Tigers got their offense going late in the season by scoring at least 30 points in each of their games during their five-game winning streak. Led by the running back duo of Kobe Pace and Will Shipley, Clemson became run-focused who averaged 171 rushing YPG for the season with 598 rushing yards in their last two contests. And the Tigers defense remained elite all season — they allowed only 15.0 Points-Per-Game and 309.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Clemson defense ranked third in the nation in Rush Success Rate allowed and third in Finishing Drives. They also only allowed eight “explosive” drives that averaged at least 10 Yards-Per-Play in the 154 drives they defended. Head coach Dabo Swinney lost both his coordinators, Tony Elliott and Brent Venables, to head coaching jobs at Virginia and Oklahoma — but he promoted from within with assistants very familiar with the schemes and hungry to make an impression. None of Swinney’s players opted out for this bowl game — this is the first game of the 2021-22 season for this group who should be very motivated. The Tigers should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa State had high expectations but those dreams were snatched from early losses to Iowa and Baylor in their first four games. They crushed the Horned Frogs to end their regular season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Iowa State offense will be without star running back Breece Hall who has opted out for the NFL draft. The Cyclones are left with just sophomore Jirehl Brock at running back who averaged only 2.1 yards after contact in a disappointing campaign this season. Senior quarterback Brock Purdy was also underwhelming this year — he had 11 turnover-worthy plays and fumbled the football another seven times. He was sacked 21 times behind an offensive line that ranked only 47th in Havoc Rate Allowed — a frightening number when facing this elite Clemson defensive line. The Cyclones defense ranked outside the top-70 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed — and they were 74th in Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record  — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (249) and the Virginia Tech Hokies (250) in the Pinstripe Bowl. THE SITUATION: Maryland (6-6) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 40-16 upset win at Rutgers as a 2-point underdog on November 27th. Virginia Tech (6-6) has won two of their last three games after their 27-24 upset win at Virginia as a 7-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: A solid technical play this afternoon. The Terrapins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, Maryland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win against a Big Ten rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Terrapins have also played 4 of their 5 games Under after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Maryland has some unattractive defensive numbers — but they played the 12th most difficult schedule according to Pro Football Focus. Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Iowa put up big numbers against the Terrapins defense — but they will not face as potent an offense this afternoon. They have played three straight Overs — but they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing three straight Overs. Maryland did generate 575 yards against the Scarlet Knights — but they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Virginia Tech enters this game missing key pieces of its offense. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister is in the transfer portal. The Hokies top two wide receivers in Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson with Turner opting out for the NFL draft and Robinson transferring to Kentucky. Burmeister accounted for 64% of the team’s total yards and those two wide receivers caught 57% of the team’s receiving yards and eight of their 17 touchdown catches. Former Texas A&M transfer Connor Blumrick will be the starting quarterback after attempting only 16 passes in the regular season. As it is, Virginia Tech scored only 24.8 Points-Per-Game — and that scoring number dropped to 21.0 PPG in their five games on the road. The Hokies have played 4 straight Unders after an upset win against a conference rival — and they have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Virginia Tech will likely rely on their rushing attack behind running back Raheem Blackshear given the absences in the passing attack. The Hokies have gained at least 227 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 225 yards in at least two straight games. Virginia Tech has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in non-conference play.

FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Maryland has played 5 straight Unders after a bye week. 10* CFB Pinstripe Bowl ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (249) and the Virginia Tech Hokies (250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (245) plus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (246) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: West Virginia (5-6) is on a two-game winning streak after their 34-28 win at Kansas as a 15.5-point favorite on November 27th. Minnesota (8-4) is also on a two-game winning streak after their 23-13 upset win against Wisconsin as a 7-point underdog on November 27th. This game takes place on a neutral field at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia started slow this season with four losses in their first five games but they eked by to become bowl eligible by winning four of their last six games including upset wins against TCU and Iowa State along with a late November victory against Texas. After not scoring more than 27 points in their first five games, the West Virginia offense behind senior quarterback Jarret Doege scored at least 29 points in four of their last six contests. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Doege is a former transfer from Bowling Green who has been a two-year starter in this program. He completed 65.4% of his passes this season. He will not have the services of top running back Leodie Brown who is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL — but head coach Neal Brown has options in sophomore Tony Mathis, Jr. and freshman A’Varius Sparrow. Brown developed a strong program at Troy which he used as a stepping stone to get this Power Five conference job. He will have relished the additional practice time to prepare for a crucial fourth year in his tenure in Morgantown. Minnesota may be due for a letdown after upsetting the Badgers to spoil their opportunity to play in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. The Golden Gophers have six of their last eight games to close out the regular season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Minnesota only managed 282 yards in their upset win against Wisconsin. The Gophers can struggle to generate points as they have not topped 23 points in five of their last eight games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field when favored. 10* CFB Guaranteed Rate Field ESPN Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (245) plus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (246). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (238) minus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (237) in the Birmingham Bowl. THE SITUATION: Auburn (6-6) is on a four-game losing streak after their 24-22 loss in overtime to Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog on November 27th. Houston (11-2) comes off a 35-20 loss to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the new Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Tigers demonstrated their vast potential in almost upsetting the Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl a month ago. They sacked Alabama quarterback Bryce Young seven times while holding the Tide to just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries. This should be a motivated Auburn team with first-year head coach Bryan Harsin using this game as a lift-off point for next season. Harsin fired offensive coordinator Mike Bobo after the Alabama game — he will call the plays this afternoon and he has already brought in Bobo’s replacement in former NFL quarterback Austin Davis who served as the quarterbacks' coach for the Seattle Seahawks this season. Harsin does not want to go into his first offseason with a losing record. And this game is an opportunity to further develop former LSU transfer, T.J. Finley, at quarterback with the enigmatic Bo Nix in the transfer portal. The Tigers are down three starting offensive tackles for this game — and their star cornerback Roger McCreary has opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. But this is an SEC power that is loaded for talent — and this is the first game for the 2022-23 season in Harsin’s mind. Harsin and his coaching staff did convince sophomore running back Tank Bigsby to not enter the transfer portal — he will be anchoring the offense in this game. The Tigers’ defense is battle-tested from the rigors of SEC play and a non-conference game against Penn State. They only allowed 22.2 Points-Per-Game and just 309.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they rank 15th in the nation in Tackles-For-Loss. Their point spread cover against Alabama was the first time they covered the point spread in four games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Houston lost their opening game at Texas Tech by a 38-21 score before rattling off 11 straight wins before their loss to the Bearcats. This is just the second game the Cougars will be playing all season against a Power Five conference opponent — and it may be telling that their two losses were by double-digits. They had three net close wins decided by one scoring possession against their Group of Five opponents. And they will be playing this game without their star cornerback Marcus Jones who also generated tons of hidden yards when returning kicks on special teams. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and the Tigers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams in his career have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games. 10* CFB Birmingham Bowl ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (238) minus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (237). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (481) and the New Orleans Saints (482). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-7) won their sixth straight game last Sunday in a 31-29 victory against the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (7-7) won their second-straight game with their 9-0 upset win at Tampa Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins held the Jets to just 228 yards last week — they have held their last three opponents to just 14.3 Points-Per-Game and 225.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they gained 379 yards against New York, they also had their offense on the field for 34:22 minutes in that game. The Dolphins averaged only 5.49 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they average only 19.5 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored. Miami’s defense leads the NFL during that span in Expected Points Allowed per snap. New Orleans has 20 players out because of COVID including quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. Head coach Sean Payton is on to his fourth-string quarterback in rookie Ian Book. The former Notre Dame star is an interesting project — but he left South Bend with a ceiling to his talents and there is a reason that there was little to no consideration of using him at quarterback up until tonight despite all the attrition at this position starting with the season-ending injury to Jameis Winston. In the preseason, Book completed 9 of 16 passes for 126 yards and an interception. Payton is an offensive wizard — but Book lacks Hill’s mobility to run the “Cam Newton Carolina” offense and his passing skillset is similar to Siemian’s but without the NFL experience. The Saints have Alvin Kamara back — but the Dolphins are likely to put eight men in the box to slow him down and dare New Orleans to beat them with Book’s arm (with a suspect receiving corps still missing Michael Thomas). New Orleans also remains without their starting tackles with Ryan Ramczyk out with COVID and Terron Armstead still dealing with a knee injury. That is not a good sign for a team that ranks second to last in the league over the last six weeks in Expected Points Added per snap on offense. New Orleans managed only 212 total yards in their upset win against the Buccaneers. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring at least 250 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Saints have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the high-30s for this game which makes it very hard to take the Under — but that is one of the motivations for the bookmakers to list the Total this low. The Army-Navy game earlier this month had a Total drop into the 30s — and Army won that game by a 17-13 score. That is only one example — but is illustrative that these numbers get this low for a reason. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (481) and the New Orleans Saints (482).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-7) won their sixth straight game last Sunday in a 31-29 victory against the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (7-7) won their second-straight game with their 9-0 upset win at Tampa Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: If the Dallas Cowboys (unfortunate, for us) blowout victory against Washington last night re-affirmed to me, it is to not underestimate the physical, mental, and emotional toll COVID outbreaks have on teams. Not that we should become zombies to simply fade teams dealing with significant outbreaks — and good luck finding matchups where only one team is dealing with that problem — but it is certainly a factor. We hope that Omicron is resulting in milder cases, but we just don’t know yet (the “analytics” are too early to evaluate). And we think professional athletes are in the best position to overcome. But dudes are still getting sick for a few days. A momentum swing like an early interception (as from last night) can play into the game script putting one team on defense for an extended period — and then suddenly a team dealing with the challenges and complications from COVID all week can find themselves on their heels. New Orleans has 20 players out because of COVID including quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. On defense, stalwarts in linebackers Demario Davis and Kaden Ellis along with strong safety Malcolm Jenkins who all played important roles in shutting out Tom Brady last week are now out as well. Head coach Sean Payton is on to his fourth-string quarterback in rookie Ian Book. The former Notre Dame star is an interesting project — but he left South Bend with a ceiling to his talents and there is a reason that there was little to no consideration of using him at quarterback up until tonight despite all the attrition at this position starting with the season-ending injury to Jameis Winston. In the preseason, Book completed 9 of 16 passes for 126 yards and an interception. Payton is an offensive wizard — but Book lacks Hill’s mobility to run the “Cam Newton Carolina” offense and his passing skillset is similar to Siemian’s but without the NFL experience. The Saints have Alvin Kamara back — but the Dolphins are likely to put eight men in the box to slow him down and dare New Orleans to beat them with Book’s arm (with a suspect receiving corps still missing Michael Thomas). Besides all that, the Saints are in a letdown spot after the shocking shutout victory against the Buccaneers. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as an underdog of six or more points against an NFC South rival. The Saints have covered the point spread in their last two games but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering point spread expectations in two of their last three games. New Orleans benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints return home where they are just 1-4 this season while getting outscored by 27.8 Points-Per-Game and surrendering 402.0 total Yards-Per-Game. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 38 point range. The Saints also remain without their starting tackles with Ryan Ramczyk out with COVID and Terron Armstead still dealing with a knee injury. That is not a good sign for a team that ranks second to last in the league over the last six weeks in Expected Points Added per snap on offense. Miami’s defense leads the NFL during that span in Expected Points Allowed per snap. Admittedly, the Dolphins have been feasting on the lesser teams in the league with less than ideal quarterback situations — but this is a team that is confident with a formula for success. And this team is pretty healthy with few COVID cases. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory at home. They had covered the point spread in five straight games before their narrow win over the Jets last week - and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points. Tua Tagovailoa has found a rhythm under center as of late — he has completed 100 of his 129 passes in his last four games for a 77.8% completion percentage with 943 passing yards, seven touchdown passes, and just three interceptions. And while Miami allowed just 228 yards to the Jets last week, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games under head coach Brian Flores in December. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (479) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-8) lost their second straight game in a 27-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (10-4) won their third straight game with a 21-6 victory in New York against the Giants as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: Washington is a tough out under head coach Ron Rivera. The Football Team has covered 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season. They did allow 519 total yards to the Eagles on Tuesday — but they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stayed competitive against Philadelphia with their +2 net turnover margin — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after owning a +2 or better turnover margin in their last game. Washington managed only 237 yards in that game with Garrett Gilbert signed just days earlier as an emergency quarterback. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not gaining more than 350 yards in their last game. The good news for the Football Team is that starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke and backup Kyle Allen have been cleared off the COVID list to play tonight. Dallas is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. But injuries are slowing this team down on offense. The biggest loss is Tyron Smith at left tackle — he might be the most important player on the team outside of Dak Prescott. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has been slowed with injuries this season. The Cowboys do get running back Tony Pollard back tonight but it remains a question how effective he will be with his foot injury. Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests. They did benefit from a +3 net turnover margin against the Giants last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning the turnover battle in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys won the first meeting between these two teams just two weeks ago in a 27-20 victory in Washington on December 12th. The Football Team has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when motivated to avenge a loss at home to their opponent. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Football Team (479) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-8) lost their second straight game in a 27-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (10-4) won their third straight game with a 21-6 victory in New York against the Giants as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys continue to excel on defense after holding the Giants to just 302 total yards. Dallas forced four turnovers in the game — they lead the NFL with 31 takeaways and 21 interceptions. They have held their last three opponents to just 14.3 Points-Per-Game and 310.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Cowboys have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Dallas has won four of their last six games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six contests. But injuries are slowing this team down on offense. The biggest loss is Tyron Smith at left tackle — he might be the most important player on the team outside of Dak Prescott. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has been slowed with injuries this season. The Cowboys do get running back Tony Pollard back tonight but it remains a question how effective he will be with his foot injury. Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored. Washington only managed 237 yards in their loss at Philadelphia. Granted, the Football Team had journeyman Garrett Gilbert under center — but he played well in completing 20 of 31 passes for 194 yards in numbers that looked similar to what Taylor Heinicke was providing them. Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen have been cleared to play — but Heinicke has not practiced all week. Aaron Rodgers is the exception that proves the rule that quarterbacks can avoid practice all week and still have their “A-Game” on Sunday. COVID has limited Washington’s ability to prepare and even game-plan. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner had to tentatively prepare three approaches since he had no idea if it would be Heinicke, Allen, or Gilbert again under center. These two teams played just two weeks ago in a 27-20 victory for the Cowboys in a game where the Football Team only gained 224 yards with both Heinicke and Allen getting snaps. Washington is scoring only 18.3 PPG and averaging 253.o total YPG in their last three games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two in a row. And while the Football Team surrendered 519 yards to the Eagles last week, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. Washington stayed competitive by forcing turnovers and not giving the ball up themselves — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record, the Football Team has played 14 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC East rivals — and Dallas has played 5 straight Unders against teams from the NFC. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6-1) has won two of their last three games after a 19-13 win against Tennessee as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (10-4) has won seven straight games after their 34-28 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on December 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh eked out that game with the Titans despite only gaining 170 total yards. They have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Under is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Steelers enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin in that game which was the third straight game where they won the turnover battle — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after having a +1 or better net turnover margin in at least two straight games. The Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They go back on the road where the Under is 37-14-1 in their last 52 games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Patrick Mahomes completed 31 of 47 passes for 410 yards in the win — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Kansas City did allow 192 rushing yards in the game — but they have played 37 of their last 55 games under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Chiefs have played two straight Overs — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Kansas City defense is playing much better at this part of the season — they have held six of their last seven opponents to no more than 17 points. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a double-digit dog. And in the last 8 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 6 times. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (468) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (467). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-7) has won two in a row after their 17-9 win at Chicago as a 7-point favorite last Monday. Los Angeles (10-4) has won three in a row with their 20-10 win against Seattle as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a challenging situation for the Rams traveling east to play in Minnesota on a short week — made all the worse with a COVID outbreak on the team. Star left tackle Andrew Whitworth is out to significantly impact an offensive line that was already dealing with COVID issues. As it is, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 10 or more points at home. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. And while the Rams have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Minnesota only needed 193 yards of offense in their victory against the Bears on Monday. The Vikings have still covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games as an underdog. They will be without running back Delvin Cook who is on the COVID list — but backup Alexander Mattison is more than capable in his absence. The team does get back wide receiver Adam Thielen who was out last week on the COVID list.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Minnesota Vikings (468) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (471) and the New England Patriots (472). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 31-14 victory against Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite last Sunday. New England (9-5) had their seven-game winning streak end last Saturday with their 27-17 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills should build off their momentum from last week as they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. The Over is also 16-7-1 in their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 30.4 Points-Per-Game and averaging 397.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are missing two wide receivers this afternoon with both Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley on the COVID list — but they do get Emmanuel Sanders back from a knee injury that kept him out last week and they still have Stefon Diggs. Buffalo will be missing a key piece on defense with linebacker Star Lotulelei for reasons only detailed as “personal.” Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bills have also played 7 straight Overs as an underdog. New England gained 365 yards last week in their loss to the Colts — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones completed 26 of 45 passes for 299 yards with two touchdown passes in a losing effort — a far cry from the mere three passes he threw against the Bills the prior week. Now Jones returns home to Foxboro where he has been more prolific with head coach Bill Belichick seemingly more comfortable to let him air it out. Jones is completing 70.7% of his passes with a 267.1 passing YPG mark with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions and a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in his seven starts at home. In his seven starts on the road, Jones’ completion percentage drops to 66.8% with a 185.4 passing YPG mark with five touchdown passes and five interceptions and a QBR of 84.5. The Patriots are scoring 30.0 PPG and averaging 388.4 total YPG at home. They have played 4 straight Overs when playing a home — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when getting up to three points as an underdog. Running back Damien Harris is expected to play this afternoon with his improving hamstring. New England did give up 226 rushing yards last week to the Colts — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on Monday Night Football back on December 6th in the cold and heavy winds in Buffalo in a game the Patriots won by a 14-6 score. The temperatures in Foxboro today will be in the 40s with the winds in the low-teens — so the offenses should be able to function much better in this rematch. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (471) and the New England Patriots (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (456) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (455). THE SITUATION: Arizona (10-4) has lost two straight games after their 30-12 upset loss in Detroit as a 13-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (8-6) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 27-17 win against New England as a 1-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cardinals have now suffered two straight upset losses after beginning last week with a 30-23 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams as a 3-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Arizona has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting upset in two straight games as the favorite. The Cardinals have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Arizona has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in the last game. The Cardinals did generate 398 yards in the losing effort to the Lions — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indianapolis has won two games in a row after their triumph against the Patriots last Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row. The Colts have covered the point spread in their last two games as well as four of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The defense for Indianapolis has played great during this stretch as they have only allowed more than 17 points once in their last six games. But the Colts did give up 284 passing yards to the Patriots and Mac Jones last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Indianapolis gained only 275 yards in that game with 226 of them coming from their rushing attack. It will be difficult for Indy to replicate that performance on the ground tonight with them missing three starting offensive linemen. Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski are on the COVID list while Ryan Kelly is taking personal time after the death of his child. The pressure will be on Carson Wentz to make plays with his arm after he completed only five passes in his 12 attempts for 57 yards last week. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not passing for more than 100 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Arizona NFL Network Special with the Arizona Cardinals (456) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (455) and the Arizona Cardinals (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (8-6) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 27-17 win against New England as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (10-4) has lost two straight games after their 30-12 upset loss in Detroit as a 13-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts only managed 275 yards in their victory against the Patriots last week. Carson Wentz only attempted 12 passes for a mere 57 yards in the win. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not passing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Colts did rush for 226 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. It will be difficult for Indy to replicate that performance on the ground tonight with them missing three starting offensive linemen. Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski are on the COVID list while Ryan Kelly is taking personal time after the death of his child. The Indianapolis defense should keep them in this game — they have not allowed more than 17 points in four of their last five games. They did allow 284 passing yards to Mac Jones last week — but they have then played 5 straight Unders after surrendering at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Colts go back on the road where they are allowing only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 303.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Arizona has suffered two straight upset losses after getting beat by the LA Rams by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite the previous week. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting upset in two straight games. Furthermore, Arizona has played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cardinals are only allowing 20.3 PPG this season — but they are scoring just 22.7 PPG in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (455) and the Arizona Cardinals (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (453) and the Green Bay Packers (454). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-7) lost their second game in their last three with their 16-14 loss to Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. Green Bay (11-3) won their third straight game with their 31-30 victory at Baltimore as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns activated both Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum off the COVID list — so they will not have to rely on third-string quarterback Nate Mullens this afternoon after he completed 20 of 30 passes for 147 yards against the Raiders. Mayfield gets the starting nod — but he will likely be rusty and has not practiced much with the team in the last two weeks. Cohesion on offense will likely be a problem for him. While the quarterbacks and wide receiver Jarvis Landry return to action, Cleveland is still missing key pieces from their starting offensive unit. The offensive line is hit hard with let tackle Jedrick Wills, Jr., and center J.C. Tretter out with COIVD — both losses are tough to swallow and the loss of Tretter should not be underestimated since Mayfield will be working with a new center to coordinate plays at the line of scrimmage. The Browns were already without starting right tackle Jack Conklin who is out the season with a right knee injury. And kicker Chase McLaughlin is on the COVID list which means head coach Kevin Stefanski will be relying on Chris Naggar despite him never having taken a kick in an NFL game. This is all happening to an offense that scores only 20.9 PPG — and they averaged just 16.0 PPG and 262.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Cleveland only gained 236 yards last week against Las Vegas — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Browns do get some key players on defense back for this game. Cornerback Denzel Ward returns from a groin injury and safety Grant Delpit was removed from the COVID list. Despite all their attrition of late, Cleveland has only allowed 18.0 PPG in their last three games. And the Under is a decisive 44-18-3 in their last 65 games in December. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in December. The Packers have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two in a row — and they have played 5 straight Unders after winning three games in a row. They allowed 354 yards to the Ravens in their narrow win last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they have scored at least 31 points in each of their last four games — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are holding their guests to just 17.0 PPG and 327.3 total YPG. Aaron Rodgers is missing some important players on offense as well for this game with right tackle Billy Turner and wide receiver Randall Cobb out with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (453) and the Green Bay Packers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (231) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (232) in the Camellia Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ball State (6-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 20-3 victory against Buffalo as a 6-point favorite on November 23rd in their last regular-season game. Georgia State (7-5) won their last three games to end their regular season after a 37-10 victory against Troy as a 6.5-point favorite on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State won the Mid-American Conference championship last season before beating San Jose State by a 34-13 score in Arizona Bowl to secure the first bowl victory in the program’s history. The Cardinals did not meet expectations this season — but 16 fifth and six-year seniors have the opportunity to end their legacies on a high note in this game. In hindsight, perhaps regression should have been expected for head coach Mike Neu’s team after four net close victories and three net upset wins last year. They only outgained their seven conference opponents by +21.3 net Yards-Per-Game despite winning six of those games. This group has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win against a conference opponent. Ball State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win -- and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point spread victory. They are led by a senior quarterback in Drew Plitt who threw 17 touchdown passes and only threw five interceptions. The Cardinals are a dangerous underdog because they limit their mistakes. They rank in the top-20 in the nation by averaging only 41.6 penalty Yards-Per-Game and by only committing 10 turnovers all season. They also are efficient in the Red Zone by registering points in 33 of their 38 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Ball State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Georgia State started the season 1-4 before winning six of their last seven — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Panthers' improvement coincided with head coach Shawn Elliott’s decision to bench incumbent starter Cornelius Brown for Furman transfer Darren Grainger. While the team raised their scoring average to 32.5 Points-Per-Game with the junior as a starter, the Georgia State offense revolves around their rushing attack. In his last five games, Grainger has only accounted for six touchdowns — and he completed only 55.8% of his 113 passes over that span while averaging just 145.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 6.45 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Panthers were outscored and outgained this season — and they were outgained by -7.64 net YPG in their six games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State’s offense averaged 4.98 Yards-Per-Carry and 2245 rushing YPG behind the two-headed monster of Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams — but Ball State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who average at least 200 rushing YPG and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against opponents who average at least 4.15 YPC. 10* CBB Camellia Bowl ESPN Special with the Ball State Cardinals (231) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (452) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (451). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-5) lost their third game in their last four in a 19-13 loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. San Francisco (8-6) has won five of their last six games after a 31-13 win against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: The Titans went into halftime with a 13-3 lead against the Steelers but did not score in the second half in their loss last week. A -4 net turnover margin spoiled Tennessee winning the yardage battle by a 318 to 170 margin. They did rush for 201 yards in the setback with D’Onta Foreman running the ball 22 times for 108 yards — and that is a good sign for this team if they can avoid fumbling the ball three times like they did last week. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. Injuries have depleted the skill position players on offense — but the running game is still functioning even without Derrick Henry and after getting wide receiver Julio Jones back last week, wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to return to the field this week after dealing with a chest injury. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games on the road after a win by at least 14 points. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Titans are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with three players out including two starters — but they can move some players around to still form a capable starting five which will now likely include their second-round draft pick, Dillon Radunz. The Niners are dealing with several missing pieces on defense including recent injuries to two of their starters at linebacker (and Dre Greenlaw has been declared out). I concluded the impact of the losses still offers us value relative to the line.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco travels east on a short week to Nashville — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 appearances on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Tennessee Titans (452) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (8-6) has won five of their last six games after a 31-13 win against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (9-5) lost their third game in their last four in a 19-13 loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers gained 397 total yards last week in their victory against the Falcons. They have scored at least 30 points in four of their last six games and five of their last eight contests. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Niners have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Even without an injured Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco ran for 162 yards against Atlanta. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is using wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, out of the backfield to great success. In Samuel’s last five games — all victories for the 49ers where they have scored at least 26 points (he did not play in their loss to Seattle on December 5th) — he has run the ball 33 times for 247 yards with six touchdowns including a score in each of those five games. Running back Jeff Wilson ran the ball 21 times for 110 yards with a touchdown in his best game of the season after missing the first half of the year to an injury. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when favored. The Titans went into halftime with a 13-3 lead against the Steelers but did not score in the second half in their loss last week. They did rush for 201 yards in the setback with D’Onta Foreman running the ball 22 times for 108 yards. Tennessee has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tennessee returns home where the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Injuries have depleted the skill position players on offense — but the running game is still functioning even without Derrick Henry and after getting wide receiver Julio Jones back last week, wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to return to the field this week after dealing with a chest injury. The Over is 19-7-1 in the Titans’ last 27 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 games in December, Tennessee has played 9 of these games Over the Total. The Titans are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with three players out including two starters — but they can move some players around to still form a capable starting five which will now likely include their second-round draft pick, Dillon Radunz. The Niners are dealing with several missing pieces on defense including recent injuries to two of their starters at linebacker (and Dre Greenlaw has been declared out). I concluded the impact of the losses still offers us value relative to the line.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday night — and the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (291) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (292) in the Frisco Football Classic. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (5-6) lost their chance to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game with a 48-47 upset loss in overtime at Kent State as a 1-point favorite on November 27th. North Texas (6-6) won their fifth straight game with a 45-23 upset win against UTSA as a 9.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Miami should respond with a strong effort for head coach Chuck Martin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a loss by seven points or less to a conference rival. This has been an explosive team on offense since sophomore quarterback Brett Gabbert returned from injury on October 23rd. They have scored more than 37 Points-Per-Game in their last six games while averaging 6.8 Yards-Per-Play in their last five contests. Gabbert has thrown 24 touchdown passes to just six interceptions won the season — and he has averaged 9.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in his last five starts since returning from injury. He completed 26 of 51 passes for 405 yards with four touchdown passes in the loss to the Golden Flashes. He should have success against the suspect Mean Green secondary that allows 7.9 YPA and ranks 123rd in the nation in Explosiveness Allowed in the passing game. The issue for Miami (OH) is to play better on the defensive side of the football. They allowed a power Kent State offense to gain 303 yards on the ground and 339 yards in the air — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. North Texas may have upset the Roadrunners in their last game — but they were facing a UTSA team that had already clinched their spot in the Conference USA Championship Game and who rested their key starters in the second half of the game. The Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. North Texas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Mean Green allowed 205 rushing yards in their victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. North Texas had failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in December. The Mean Green have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when playing on grass. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl Classic ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (291) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (223) minus the points versus the UTSA Roadrunners (224) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (11-2) looks to rebound from a 46-13 upset loss to Utah State as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 4th. UTSA (12-1) won the Conference USA Championship Game with their 49-41 upset win against Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on December 3rd. This game is being played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego State was without 20 players on the COVID list including quarterback Lucas Johnson in their loss to the Aggies. The roster appears to be mostly healthy again for this opportunity to end the season on a positive note after that disappointment in their conference championship game. Winning this game would also give this team 12 wins to break a school record for victories. As it is, the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a double-digit loss. San Diego State is also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 AS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Aztecs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Head coach Brady Hoke has a stout defensive unit that holds their opponents to just 19.5 Points-Per-Game and 319.5 total Yards-Per-Game — they should play much better tonight back at full strength. San Diego State also has a secret weapon to complement their defensive approach with punter Matt Araiza who averages 51.4 yards per punt this season — and he has 36 punts that landed inside their 20-yard line. UTSA may be due for a letdown after winning their conference championship. The Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win against a Conference USA opponent. UTSA generated 556 total yards against the Hilltoppers in that triumph — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 525 total yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing at least three straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA running back Sincere McCormick has opted-out of this game to enter the NFL draft — the Roadrunners will miss his 3900 career rushing yards after he generated 1479 rushing yards this season with 15 touchdowns on 299 carries. They score 37.8 Points-Per-Game this year — but they play an angry Aztecs team that has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games against teams who score at least 34 PPG. 20* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the San Diego State Aztecs (223) minus the points versus the UTSA Roadrunners (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (337) and the Los Angeles Rams (338). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-8) has won two games in a row with their 33-13 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-23 upset victory at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Seahawks generated 453 yards of offense against the Texans — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Seattle did allow 380 yards to Houston — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. And in their last 8 games in December, the Under is 5-2-1. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Rams do get Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey back from the COVID list to bolster their defense. They return home to SoFi Stadium — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total. Los Angeles has also played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 10* NFL Tuesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (337) and the Los Angeles Rams (338). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (339) and the Philadelphia Eagles (340). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-7) ended their four-game winning streak with a 27-20 loss to Dallas as a 6.5-point underdog on December 12th. Philadelphia (6-7) has won three of their last four games with a 33-18 victory in New York against the Jets as a 5-point favorite on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 47 combined points scored in the Football Team’s loss to the Cowboys included a fumble recovery touchdown for both teams. Washington only managed 224 total yards in the loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Football Team has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. Washington will be without Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen tonight as with players who did not get cleared to be removed from the COVID list — so it will be Garrett Gilbert under center after he was signed to the team on Friday. The Football Team is not going to ask Gilbert to do much tonight with his limited arm strength and lack of familiarity with the offense. Washington is going to attempt to run the football and shorten the game. The good news for the Football Team is they are getting their defensive line room back who tested positive for COVID including Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis. But they are missing skill position players on offense like wide receiver Curtis Samuel and third-down running back J.D. McKissic. They go on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 straight Unders in December. Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. The Eagles will be content to grind this game out as they have evolved into a running team with second-year pro Jalen Hurts under center. Philadelphia rushed for at least 176 yards in six straight games after generating 185 yards against the Jets — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when playing a team with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC East opponents — and Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (339) and the Philadelphia Eagles (340). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-8) has won two games in a row with their 33-13 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-23 upset victory at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: After struggling initially after his faster-than-expected return from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has regained his old form after completing 17 of 28 passes for 260 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Texans. Wilson is completing more than 70% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 109 in his last three starts. He has averaged 246 passing Yards-Per-Game in those contests with six touchdown passes and just one interception. The Seahawks are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While this game was originally postponed because of a COVID outbreak in the Rams’ locker room, it is now Seattle that has been hit harder with positive cases. The Seahawks are without a handful of players including wide receiver Tyler Lockett, running back Alex Collins, cornerback D.J. Reed, and right tackle Brandon Shell. The absence of Lockett hurts but Wilson still has D.J. Metcalf as a prime target. The loss of Collins is not as big a deal with the emergence of running back Rashaad Penny who rushed the ball 16 times for 137 yards last week. The line has moved to account for the players Seattle will not have tonight — but they still have Wilson who usually makes them dangerous underdogs. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Seattle is also a dangerous dog since they protect the football — they are tied for the fewest giveaways in the league. The national punditry seems to believe the Rams have solved all their problems after beating and covering the point spread in their last two games against Jacksonville and the Cardinals last week. We had LA against Arizona in that game — but the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Consistency has not been a hallmark for this team under head coach Sean McVay. And problems remain — a +2 net turnover margin helped them overcome betting outgained by 89 yards to the Cardinals. Arizona generated 447 yards against them — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Los Angeles still has many players out on the COVID list including starting tight end Tyler Higbee — but they do expect to get Von Miller back.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (331) and the Chicago Bears (332). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) won their third game in their last five contests with a 36-28 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football last week. Chicago (4-9) lost their second straight game win a 45-30 loss at Green Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chicago is dealing with some significant injuries on defense. Several players are on IR including linebacker Khalil Mack and Danny Trevathan. Defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebacker Roquan Smith are questionable. This attrition has played a large role in the Bears giving up 88 combined points in the last two weeks. They gave up 439 total yards to the Packers. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Despite two interceptions last week, rookie quarterback Justin Fields has played well as the Bears’ starting quarterback. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and another 74 rushing yards. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 straight Overs in December. Minnesota has played 47 of their last 67 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. They gained 458 yards against the Steelers last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh gained 375 yards against the Vikings' defense — and Minnesota has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings have allowed at least 28 points in four straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games. Minnesota has also scored at least 26 points in six straight contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring and allowing at least 24 points in three straight games. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their 9 road games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 20th last season when the Bears upset the Vikings on the road by a 33-27 score as a 3-point underdog. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC North. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (331) and the Chicago Bears (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) lost their second straight game win a 45-30 loss at Green Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-7) won their third game in their last five contests with a 36-28 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago has lost seven of their last eight games — but they have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler tonight. The Bears have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago has suffered -4 and -3 net turnover margins in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. They host a Vikings team that is just 2-5 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Despite two interceptions last week, rookie quarterback Justin Fields has played well as the Bears’ starting quarterback. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and another 74 rushing yards. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game at home. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 points. And while Minnesota has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They allowed the Steelers to gain 375 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Vikings have gained 426 and 458 yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a losing record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on Monday Night Football — and Kirk Cousins has lost nine of his ten starts in prime-time. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Vikings at Soldier Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (329). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-3) won their fourth straight game with their 33-27 victory against Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite last week. New Orleans (6-7) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 30-9 win at New York against the Jets as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in all four of their wins on this streak — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in at least three straight games. Tampa Bay is a perfect 6-0 at home with an average winning margin of +19.0 Points-Per-Game — so I am comfortable laying double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games - and they habit veered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. The Buccaneers do have Vita Vea back on their defensive line who helps them become very tough to run on. Tampa Bay is third in the NFL by allowing only 91.2 rushing YPG — it will be a challenge to run the ball against this team without a credible passing attack. The Saints’ pass attack has averaged only 180 YPG in their last three games with a low 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average and a 55.4% completion percentage. The Bucs will be able to put eight defenders in the box in this rematch. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win. A big concern for New Orleans in this game is their anemic offensive under quarterback Taysom Hill. The Saints are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging 313.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the NFC.

FINAL TAKE: The Halloween meeting between these teams was a game that Jameis Winston started but got injured in before Trevor Siemian came off the bench to play one of his best games in his career in unusual circumstances. Brady will be motivated to make a statement in these revenge circumstances — and the Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as a double-digit favorite. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (6-7) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 30-9 win at New York against the Jets as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-3) won their fourth straight game with their 33-27 victory against Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Jets to just 256 yards last week in a strong defensive effort. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Saints have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points, New Orleans has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they are allowing only 18.3 PPG and 300.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does a good job devising schemes against Tom Brady — his zone defense limits the effectiveness of the crossing routes that the Buccaneers love and New Orleans has the players to generate an inside pass rush which gets Brady out of his rhythm. The Saints contained Brady to completing just 60.8% of his passes which averaged only 6.05 Yards-Per-Attempt in their two meetings last season. Brady put up better numbers in their first meeting this season on October 31st — but he did throw two interceptions in a 36-27 upset loss when the Bucs were laying 3.5 points. The bigger concern for New Orleans in this game is their anemic offensive under quarterback Taysom Hill. The Saints are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging 313.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Hill is an effective runner — but he is limited in the passing game. New Orleans operates an offensive akin to the Cam Newton offenses with Carolina — and that does mean longer possessions of offense as they attempt to win the Time of Possession battle. The Saints were on offense for 38:52 minutes against the Jets after rushing for 202 yards — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay did allow 173 rushing yards last week to the Bills — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. The Buccaneers do have Vita Vea back on their defensive line who helps them become very tough to run on. Tampa Bay is third in the NFL by allowing only 91.2 rushing YPG — it will be a challenge to run the ball against this team without a credible passing attack. The Saints’ pass attack has averaged only 180 YPG in their last three games with a low 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average and a 55.4% completion percentage. The Bucs will be able to put eight defenders in the box in this rematch. Josh Allen led a Bills offense to average 6.4 Yards-Per-Play last week — but Tampa Bay has played 6 straight Unders after a game where they allowed at least 6.0 YPP. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against NFL opponents — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Halloween meeting between these teams was a game that Jameis Winston started but got injured in before Trevor Siemian came off the bench to play one of his best games in his career in unusual circumstances. These teams have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing in Tampa Bay. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Mistake ... wrong game.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (313) and the New York Giants (314). THE SITUATION: Dallas (9-4) has won two in a row after their 27-20 win at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (4-9) lost their third game in their last four in a 37-21 loss at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 9.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas held the Football Team to just 224 total yards in the victory last week. They have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 30 points. The Cowboys have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring only 23.9 PPG — a far cry from their 29.2 PPG scoring average overall this season. The offense will be without their glue on the offensive line in left tackle Tyron Smith — and running back Tony Pollard is questionable with a foot injury.  The Cowboys have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored. New York only managed 316 yards last week with backup Mike Glennon under center. He completed only 17 of 36 passes for 191 yards in the loss. The Under is 9-3-1 in the Giants’ last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Under is 11-3-1 in New York’s last 15 games after a point spread loss. The Giants allowed the Chargers to gain 423 yards — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. New York enters that game not allowing more than 20 points in five of their previous six games. They return home where they score just 16.5 PPG and average 288.7 total YPG — but they do hold their guests to just 18.0 PPG. The Under is 10-1-1 in the Giants’ last 12 games at home — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Daniel Jones is out once again — so the Giants offense is again in the hands of Glennon. Rookie wide receiver and playmaker Kadarius Toney is also unavailable on the COVID list. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (313) and the New York Giants (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 53-21 loss to Western Kentucky as a 1-point underdog on November 27th. UL-Lafayette (12-1) won the Sun Belt Championship Game with their 24-16 upset win against Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall should play well after their embarrassing loss to the Hilltoppers. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss by 21 or more points against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 28 or more points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Allowing Western Kentucky to score on a 43-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown did not help the Marshall cause under rookie head coach Charlies Huff. Despite their 7-5 record, this team is outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +82.8 net Yards-Per-Game. In their six games away from home, the Thundering Herd outscored their opponents by +16.5 PPG and +62.0 net YPG. Led by second-year freshman quarterback Grant Wells, the Thundering Herd ranks 27th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. UL-Lafayette finally beat their White Whale in Appalachian State in a conference championship game after falling twice against them prior under head coach Billy Napier. Their head coach has since moved on to Gainesville to begin his journey as the head coach for the University of Florida — and he took a handful of assistants with him including defensive coordinator Patrick Toney. Co-offensive coordinator Michael Desormeaux takes over as the interim head coach. I suspect an emotional letdown is coming for a team that appeared disinterested at times after losing their opener to Texas. The following week, they only beat Nicholls State by three points. They later defeated South Alabama, Arkansas State, Georgia State, and UL-Monroe by five points or less despite being a double-digit favorite on each occasion. As it is, the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Louisiana has not committed a turnover in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in at least three straight games. Running back Chris Smith is another key piece to the team that won the conference title who will not be in the Big Easy as he has opted-out of this game. This is a team that has not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Conference USA opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns have not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.