11-16-24 |
Kansas +2.5 v. BYU |
|
17-13 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (363) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (364). THE SITUATION: Kansas (2-6) has won two of their last three games after their 45-36 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (9-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 22-21 victory at Utah as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas generated 532 yards against the Cyclones last week and outgained them by +71 net yards. They are playing much better over their last three games as they seem to have clearly benefited from their bye week that preceded this run. Quarterback Jalon Daniels is playing much better after some inconsistent play early on when he might have been less than 100% health-wise. He completed 12 of 24 passes for 295 yards with two touchdown passes last week — and he added 68 rushing yards with another touchdown with his legs. The Jayhawks should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after scoring 31 or more points in their last game. They have played six straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after playing three or more Overs in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road in the second half of the season. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. BYU’s good fortunes continued last week as they survived a potential game-ending sack with a defensive holding penalty on fourth down which kept their final drive alive. We were on the Utes last week so fortunately they still covered the field goal point spread. The Cougars got outgained by -80 net yards but benefited from a +3 net turnover margin. But BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Cougars have been fortunate to not lose a game this season. They beat Oklahoma State on a last-second game-winning touchdown against an injury-riddled Cowboys. Their victory against Kansas State was fluky as they scored 38 points from non-offensive touchdowns that helped them overcome only gaining 241 yards in that game. They have won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession — and they have benefited from a now +10 net turnover margin. These are all areas where the Regression Gods eventually appear to even things out. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. And while the Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +13.9 net Points-Per-Game, Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Kansas Jayhawks (363) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-24 |
James Madison v. Old Dominion +2.5 |
Top |
35-32 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (4-5) had won three games in a row before a 28-20 upset loss at Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 2nd. James Madison (7-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-7 win against Georgia State as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONARCHS PLUS THE POINTS: Old Dominion outgained the Mountaineers two weeks ago by +102 net yards after generating 498 yards against them. A -3 net turnover margin was too much to overcome. The result was the Monarchs’ fourth loss by one scoring possession this season including an impressive four-point loss at South Carolina in August to open their season. With an extra week to prepare, they should be ready to pull the upset this afternoon. Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after enduring a net turnover margin of -2 or worse in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games coming off their bye week. The Monarchs have been much more explosive on offense since dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph took over under center in October. He completed 27 of 38 passes for 332 yards with two touchdown passes (and an interception) against Appalachian State — and he added an additional 42 rushing yards. Old Dominion is generating 378.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.4. Points-Per-Game this season — but in their last five games since Joseph took over as the starter, they are averaging 437.0 total YPG which is producing 29.8 PPG. The Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting up to seven points. James Madison has registered two straight wins against two bad teams in Southern Mississippi and Georgia State in their last two games. They caught the Panthers last week at the tail end of a rare four-game road swing which was pretty fortunate. This team has been catching breaks all season as they lead the nation with a +18 net turnover margin. Averaging a +2 net turnover margin per game is simply not sustainable — so I am expecting the Regression Gods to make their presence known sooner rather than later. As it is, the Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Quarterback Alonza Barrett has 21 touchdown passes and only three interceptions this season — but most of that production came earlier in the season when he registered 11 Big-Time throws and only three turnover-worthy plays in his first four games. In his last five games against Sun Belt opponents, Barrett has only six Big-Time throws with six turnover-worthy plays. The Dukes rank just 91st in Pass Success Rate so they may hope to get most of their yards on the ground — but Old Dominion ranks 23rd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. James Madison has only scored 33 combined points in their two conference games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Dukes are outscoring their opponents by +18.9 PPG — but the Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. Under head coach Ricky Rahne, the Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 22 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their 21 games as an underdog in Sun Belt Conference play with ten outright upset victories. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Year with the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-24 |
Commanders +4.5 v. Eagles |
|
18-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (313) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-3) had won three games in a row before their 28-27 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-2) has won five games in a row after their 34-6 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: But perhaps what is underrated about this Commanders team is the continued development of their defense under head coach Dan Quinn. Washington held the Steelers to just 312 yards last week — and Pittsburgh averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Play and 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Quinn coaches his defense against two Eagles players he became very familiar with in his time as the defensive coordinator for Dallas. In his five games against quarterback Jalen Hurts, Quinn’s Cowboys sacked him 18 times, intercepted five of his passes, and held him to nine touchdown passes. In his six games against running back Saquon Barkley when he was playing for the New York Giants, Quinn’s defense held him to only two rushing touchdowns from 86 carries. Washington has held five of their opponents to no more than 18 points. Led by Dante Fowler, Jr. who played for Quinn in Atlanta and Dallas as well, the Commanders are doing a great job pressuring the quarterback. Washington has a pressure rate of 40% of their opponent’s drop backs — and they rank fourth in pass rush win rate. Hurts thrives in a clean pocket where he has a Passer Rating of 114.5 while completing 79% of his passes — but when pressured, Hurts' Passer Rating drops to an 80.3 mark and he is completing only 52% of his passes. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. Hurts has been putting up great numbers lately — but he has benefited from an easy schedule as his last four opponents rank 26th or lower in Defensive DVOA. In their first five games against defenses ranking in the 18th to 23rd range as of now in Defensive DVOA, the Eagles only scored 17 PPG. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after winning their last game. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games under head coach Nick Sirianni. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (313) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-24 |
Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 50 |
Top |
18-26 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-3) had won three games in a row before their 28-27 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-2) has won five games in a row after their 34-6 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only gained 242 yards of offense last week with rookie phenom Jayden Daniels only completing 17 of 34 passes for just 202 yards. He gained just five yards on the ground on three carries and no scrambles. One dynamic I have been on alert for is how this Washington offense under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury would continue to develop in the second half of the season. Kingsbury earned the reputation as the head coach in Arizona as someone who did not continue to innovate and adapt in the second half of the season. Defensive head coaches catchup to his concepts — and his Cardinals’ teams saw a reduction in offensive production in the second half of the season. Daniels is only averaging 195.5 passing Yards-Per-Game in his last two games — and he has thrown for no more than 219 yards in six of his nine starts. But perhaps what is underrated about this Commanders team is the continued development of their defense under head coach Dan Quinn. Washington held the Steelers to just 312 yards last week — and Pittsburgh averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Play and 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Quinn coaches his defense against two Eagles players he became very familiar with in his time as the defensive coordinator for Dallas. In his five games against quarterback Jalen Hurts, Quinn’s Cowboys sacked him 18 times, intercepted five of his passes, and held him to nine touchdown passes. In his six games against running back Saquon Barkley when he was playing for the New York Giants, Quinn’s defense held him to only two rushing touchdowns from 86 carries. Washington has held five of their opponents to no more than 18 points. Led by Dante Fowler, Jr. who played for Quinn in Atlanta and Dallas as well, the Commanders are doing a great job pressuring the quarterback. Washington has a pressure rate of 40% of their opponent’s drop backs — and they rank fourth in pass rush win rate. Hurts thrives in a clean pocket where he has a Passer Rating of 114.5 while completing 79% of his passes — but when pressured, Hurts Passer Rating drops to an 80.3 mark and he is completing only 52% of his passes. Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. His teams have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total in Weeks 10 through 13. Philadelphia held the Cowboys to only 2.6 Yards-Per-Play last week which resulted in just 146 yards of offense. The young Eagles defense appears to be maturing under the guidance of veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. They have not allowed more than 23 points in five straight games — and they have held four of those opponents to 17 or fewer points. Philly enjoys the third lowest opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they rank 11th in the NFL Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Hurts has been putting up great numbers lately — but he has benefited from an easy schedule as his last four opponents rank 26th or lower in Defensive DVOA. In their first five games against defenses ranking in the 18th to 23rd range as of now in Defensive DVOA, the Eagles only scored 17 PPG. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. And while the Commanders generate 153.5 rushing YPG, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 22 of their 34 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-24 |
Dolphins +3 v. Rams |
|
23-15 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (285) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (286). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-6) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 30-27 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles Rams (4-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 26-20 win at Seattle in overtime as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a fishy line. Miami is on a three-game losing streak and has won only two games this season — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision. The Rams are riding a three-game winning streak and are getting healthy on both sides of the ball, especially with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacau back from their injuries. The Dolphins are crushing their bettors this season — they are getting outscored by -8.2 Points-Per-Game relative to the point spread. The betting public is all over the Rams tonight. At DraftKings, 80% of the money and 77% of the bets are on Los Angeles — and yet most books including DraftKings have not even moved the Rams to a field goal favorite? I smell a rat — and I am fading the public. I see enough to justify this decision. Miami has plenty of offensive weapons outside of Hill. Tua Tagovailoa completed 25 of his 28 passes last week. They outgained the Bills by +48 net yards while generating 373 total yards of offense. In the last two weeks since Tagovailoa returned from the concussion protocol, their offense ranks second in Expected Points Added per play on offense. The Dolphins defense has played a bit better than expected as well. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They are only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they hold their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami comes into this game desperate — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. I appreciate that the Los Angeles offense is much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy and on the field. But the Rams are still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. The Rams got outgained by -58 net yards in their win against the Seahawks last week — but a +2 net turnover margin including a 103-yard interception return for a touchdown helped them overcome that yardage deficit. It is telling that Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games under head coach Sean McVay against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (285) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-24 |
Dolphins v. Rams UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
23-15 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-6) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 30-27 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles Rams (4-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 26-20 win at Seattle in overtime as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have a good young defense that is underrated and getting healthier. They lead the NFL in sacks, hits on the quarterback, and interceptions. They rank second in the league with a pressure rate of 29.1% of their opponent’s dropbacks. Since returning from their bye week in Week Seven, they rank second in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 339.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Rams have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. I appreciate that the Los Angeles offense is much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy and on the field. But the Rams are still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. Miami is without right tackle Austin Jackson — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision with a wrist injury he re-aggravated on Friday. He says he “will try” to play tonight — but the signs are not looking good. Even if he takes the field, he will probably not be 100% since catching the football requires using one’s wrist. The Dolphins defense has played a bit better than expectation. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They are only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they hold their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road after allowing 30 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Rams are giving up 360.1 total YPG, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 25% of their games under head coach Sean McVay. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-24 |
Lions v. Texans UNDER 49.5 |
|
26-23 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (283) and the Houston Texans (284). THE SITUATION: Detroit (7-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-14 win at Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (6-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 21-13 loss in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 31st.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston held the Jets to just 293 yards of offense last week. The Texans are holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Houston has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total played on grass. Detroit has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on grass which tends to slow down their speedy skill players on offense. The Lions may be scoring 32.3 PPG but they are only generating 369.6 total YPG. They only gained 261 yards last week in their win against Green Bay. Much of their scoring has been dependent on forcing turnovers. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown last week — and they have forced 13 turnovers in their alt five games. The underappreciated aspect of this Detroit team has been how good their defense has played since the injury to Adrian Hutchinson. In the three games since that injury, the Lions have registered five sacks and another 12 hits on the quarterback. Detroit ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Detroit has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. They are allowing 357.1 total YPG — and the Texans have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Houston has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Toal set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (283) and the Houston Texans (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-24 |
Lions v. Texans +4 |
Top |
26-23 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (284) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (283). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 21-13 loss in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 31st. Detroit (7-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-14 win at Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: I do not like the “sell high” or “buy low” rationales in sports betting. I think it is a flawed analogy to suggest sports teams are like stocks — as if their performances are destined to rise and fall like a price in the stock market. I also do not think the betting market (or the stock market) is necessarily rational. So-called “sharps” lose all the time — and square bettors win their share of games (which keeps them gambling). Bettors “selling high” on the Detroit Lions would likely be bankrupt by now considering they are on a 33-12 ATS run over the last three seasons — and these bettors thinking they are sharp by only fading them away from Ford Field would have lost 12 of their last 14 bets. These caveats aside, we may be seeing the peak of the Lions' perceived value by the betting market after their resounding victory in the rain against the Packers — and that presents us some point spread value with the line being pushed past some key numbers. But that dynamic is not enough for me to endorse the Texans. The second factor that persuades me is simply that Detroit’s underlying numbers suggest their recent success will be difficult to replicate. For starters, the Lions are thriving in winning the turnover battle. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown last week — and that event helped obscure that their defense surrendered 411 yards and they actually got outgained by -150 net yards. Despite their 7-1 record, Detroit is only outgaining their opponents by +12.5 net Yards-Per-Game. The Lions lead the NFL in net turnover margin — and they are averaging a +1.4 net turnover margin per game. That is simply unsustainable as the season moves on. In their last five games, Detroit has forced 12 turnovers while committing just one turnover. Now I don’t expect Jared Goff to become midseason Sam Darnold suddenly, but a few interceptions here, a few lost fumbles there, and fewer takeaways along the way quickly evens out that recent turnover edge — and the Lions' meager edge in yards results in them being in coin flip games. On the other hand, we are catching Houston a bit undervalued relative to what I expect to be long-term market expectations. They outgained the Jets last week by +29 net yards despite the loss. The Texans have not paid off bettors in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team expects wide receiver Tank Dell to return to the field tonight — and they hope Nico Collins joins him at wide receiver with him being a game-time decision after he has missed the last few games. Expect plenty of touches from running back Joe Mixon who is averaging over 100 rushing YPG this season. Detroit can be run on — opposing rushers are generating 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. And then there is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud who still is exhibiting extreme home/road splits in his young career. In 12 games on the road, Stroud is completing only 60.7% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. But in his 12 starts at home in his career, he enjoys a 66.4% completion percentage with 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Houston is 4-0 this season at home with an average winning margin of +4.0 PPG. They are outgaining their guests by +109.0 net YPG due to the strength of their defense. The Texans are holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. And, by the way, the 383.3 total YPG they average at home is more than the Lions’ 379.3 YPG that they generate on the road. Houston has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And while Detroit is outscoring their opponents by +13.8 PPG, the Texans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Houston tends to do well against high-scoring teams that rely on winning the turnover battle. The Lions are scoring 32.3 PPG — but the Texans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who enjoy a +1.0 or better turnover margin per game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Houston Texans (284) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (283). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-24 |
Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 44 |
|
34-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (279) and the Dallas Cowboys (280). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-2) has won four games in a row after their 28-23 win against Jacksonville as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (3-5) has lost three games in a row after their 27-21 loss at Atlanta on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Falcons to just 310 yards of offense last week despite the injuries they have sustained on defense. Now they look to get defensive end Micah Parsons and cornerback Trevon Diggs back with this unit starting to get healthy again. But Dallas will be playing without quarterback Dak Prescott moving forward with him going on the injured list with his hamstring injury. Cooper Rush will be under center for the Cowboys. He completed only 13 of 25 passes in relief last week for just 115 passing yards and a low 4.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Dallas has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Eagles score 24.9 Points-Per-Game — and the Cowboys have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Eagles are running the ball more which is helping to keep their defense rested. Their offense has been on the field for over 35 minutes per game in their last three games which is about three minutes above their season average. Not coincidentally, they have held their last three opponents to 204.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in these foes scoring just 14.3 PPG. Philadelphia goes back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. They have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And while the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play, Philly has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 5.65 or more YPP.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (279) and the Dallas Cowboys (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-24 |
Bills v. Colts +4.5 |
|
30-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (264) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (263). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 21-13 loss at Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (7-2) has won four games in a row after their 30-27 win at home against Miami as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a tough spot for a Bills team that had 19 players on their injured list during the week. Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is out for this game and now Adam Schefter is reporting that wide Amari Cooper is not expected to play in this game as well. As it is, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against AFC East rivals. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Indianapolis has bounced back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco remains under center as long as this team is alive in the AFC playoff race. In his last two seasons as a starter with the Colts and with Cleveland last year, he has a 5-3 record with those teams scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game. He has averaged 292.9 passing Yards-Per-Game in those contests with 18 touchdowns and a 90.8 Passer Rating. Running back Jonathan Taylor has rushed for at least 100 yards in four of his last five games. He should have success against this Bills team that can be run on. Buffalo is allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Dolphins ran 31 times for 149 yards against them last week. Indianapolis has covered the point spread 8 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games against fellow AFC rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams from the AFC — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after the first month of the season — and the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Indianapolis Colts (264) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-24 |
BYU v. Utah +3.5 |
Top |
22-21 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-4) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss at Houston as a 4.5-point favorite back two weeks ago on October 26th. BYU (8-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 37-24 upset win at Central Florida as a 3-point underdog on October 26th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: After winning their first four games this season, injuries have played a role in them losing four games in a row — but their last three losses to Arizona State, TCU, and then the Cougars were all by one scoring possession. The Utes did outgain Houston by +17 net yards by holding them to just 289 yards of offense. Utah still has an outstanding defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. The Utes are holding their opponents to 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 16.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank seventh in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 11th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Additionally, they rank sixth in Finishing Drives Allowed — and they rank second in 3rd Down Defense. The problem has been the offense with quarterback Cam Rising once again out of the season with injuries. Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig stepped down a few weeks ago — so interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has used the extra week to adjust the offense to the skillsets of either Isaac Wilson or freshman Brandon Rose. In Whittingham, I trust, to right the ship this week. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games with an extra week to prepare under Whittingham. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. BYU has been fortunate to not lose a game this season. They beat Oklahoma State on a last-second game-winning touchdown against an injury-riddled Cowboys. Their victory against Kansas State was fluky as they scored 38 points from non-offensive touchdowns that helped them overcome only gaining 241 yards in that game. They have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and they have benefited from a +7 net turnover margin. They have also converted on 15 of their 18 fourth down attempts. These are all areas where the Regression Gods eventually appear to even things out — and it could get ugly for the Cougars when it happens. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has 18 touchdown passes — but he has not registered a “Big Time Throw” all season and has seven turnover-worthy plays. The Cougars have an excellent pass defense that ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — but that is not the strength of this Utes team. Utah wants to run the football — and BYU ranks just 84th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 87th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but the Utes have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games against teams who are not allowing more than 5.75 YPA. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games against teams not allowing more than 17.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams not giving up more than 310 YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Whittingham will have his team ready to play in the Holy War with the motivation to ruin BYU’s perfect season. Utah has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games as an underdog getting four or more points under Whittingham. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-24 |
Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 54 |
|
34-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (109) and the Baltimore Ravens (110). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-24 win against Las Vegas last Sunday. Baltimore (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 41-10 victory as a 9-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens held the Broncos to just 319 yards last week with only 192 yards coming in the air. Baltimore ranks third in the NFL in Run Defense DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. But they also rank just 23rd in Pass Defense DVOA. After the Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow threw for a season-high 392 yards against them on October 6th in their 41-38 overtime win at home last month, head coach John Harbaugh brought in veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to serve as a senior advisor to rookie defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. The Ravens should have a better defensive plan in this rematch. At home, they are only giving up 280.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring just 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record including 5 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati is also playing better defense since the scoring fest between these two teams last month. The Bengals are giving tip 342.9 total YPG but they have held their last four opponents to 314.8 YPG in their last four games since the loss to the Ravens. In their four games on the road, they are allowing their home hosts to generate just 326.5 YPG which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. Cincinnati has played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as a dog getting up to seven points. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals will likely be without wide receiver Tee Higgins who is listed as doubtful with a quad injury — and starting left tackle Orlando Brown is questionable with a knee injury. They are scoring 26.2 PPG — but Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are scoring 24.0 or more PPG. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (109) and the Baltimore Ravens (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-24 |
Bengals v. Ravens -5.5 |
Top |
34-35 |
Loss |
-120 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (110) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (109). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 41-10 victory as a 9-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-24 win against Las Vegas on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Lamar Jackson is enjoying another MVP season. He leads the NFL with a Passer Rating of 120.7 — and he has registered seven straight games with a Passer Rating of at least 100. He ranks third in the league with 2379 passing yards — and he has thrown for 275 or more yards in five straight games. For the season, he has 20 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Jackson loves the prime-time stage where he has an 18-5 straight-up record as a starter — and the Ravens have won nine of his ten starts at home in prime-time. Furthermore, Jackson won nine of his 11 starts against the Bengals — and he has thrown 18 touchdown passes to just four interceptions and added 750 rushing yards with two touchdowns on the ground against Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s defense. Additionally, Baltimore has rushed for at least 100 yards in 25 straight games. Running back Derrick Henry has rushed for 214 yards from 37 carries for a 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average in his two previous games against Anarumo’s Bengals defense. The Ravens have scored 41 or more points in three of their last five games — and they have scored 28 or more points in six of their last seven games. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the Total at 45.5 or higher — and they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the second half of the season under head coach John Harbaugh. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a straight-up win at home. They come into this game at less than 100%. Wide receiver Tee Higgins is doubtful with his quad injury that kept him out the last two games. Left tackle Orlando Brown is questionable with a left knee. It is interesting to note that star defensive end Trey Hendrickson has only one sack in the Ravens’ last 134 dropbacks when these two teams are playing each other. That is not a good sign for a team that is getting outgained by -12.3 net Yards-Per-Game this season despite their winning record — and they are getting outgained by -21.5 net YPG in their four games on the road. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against AFC North opponents. The Bengals are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play which is helping them generate 26.2 PPG — but these are the type of teams that the Ravens handle. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 straight games against teams who score 24 or more PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams averaging 5.6 or more YPP.
FINAL TAKE: The Ravens won the first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 41-38 win in overtime on October 6th. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 25* AFC North Game of the Month is with the Baltimore Ravens (110) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-24 |
Bucs +9.5 v. Chiefs |
|
24-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss to Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (7-0) has won their first seven games of the season after their 27-20 win at home against Las Vegas as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay outgained the Falcons last week by +38 net yards but could not overcome a -3 net turnover margin. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after losing their last game. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was able to move the offense despite the absences of wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin due to injuries. He completed 37 of 50 passes for 330 yards — and the Bucs generated 432 yards in that contest last week. Now they go on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +7.4 net Points-Per-Game with their offense scoring 33.7 PPG. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after the first month of the season. Kansas City only gained 334 yards last week in their victory against the Raiders. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after Week Eight in the regular season. And while the Buccaneers are allowing 131.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams who allow 130 or more rushing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs may be 7-0 but only two of those victories were by more than seven points. Kansas City is a 19-32-2 ATS in Patrick Mahomes’ last 53 starts when favored by more than three points. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Kansas City ESPN Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-24 |
Bucs v. Chiefs UNDER 46 |
|
24-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss to Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (7-0) has won their first seven games of the season after their 27-20 win at home against Las Vegas as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City held the Raiders to just 228 yards last Sunday — but they only managed 334 yards themselves despite scoring 27 points. The Chiefs have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win against an AFC West rival. They stay at home where they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine. Kansas City’s defense should dominate this game. They are holding their opponents to 295.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.6 Points-Per-Game — and they rank second in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are only giving up 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank second in Defensive DVOA against the run. Furthermore, KC ranks third in pressure rate — and they play man-to-man pass coverage that the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield has struggled against. Mayfield’s Expected Points Added per dropback are higher when he is playing against zone schemes. He has faced zone defenses for the last five games — but when he played against man schemes in Weeks Two and Three against Detroit and Denver, Tampa Bay generated only 219.5 total YPG which resulted in 13.5 PPG. While the Buccaneers gained 432 yards against the Falcons’ defense despite the injuries to wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, matching that production will be more difficult against this Steve Spagnuolo defense. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. And while the Bucs endured a -3 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a two-game home stand. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49-point range. And in their last 7 games in November, the Bucs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. The Tampa Bay pass defense is vulnerable as they are surrendering 255.4 passing YPG — but Kansas City has played 6 straight Unders against teams who are giving up 235 or more passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are scoring 29.4 PPG this season — but the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. Rain is expected at Arrowhead Stadium tonight which may play a role in slowing down one or both of these offenses tonight. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-24 |
Colts v. Vikings -5.5 |
|
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-2) has lost two games in a row after their 30-20 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 24th. Indianapolis (4-4) had won two games in a row before their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Colts head coach Shane Steichen turns to Joe Flacco under center moving forward as he is benching Anthony Richardson after the second-year quarterback’s struggles culminated in him taking himself out of last week’s game after getting winded on a long play. Steichen needed to make that decision to keep the faith of his locker room — especially with the team still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. Indianapolis has a 2-1 record in the three games that he has played this season — but they lost the yardage battle in two of those contests. The Colts have a 4-4 record but they are getting outgained by -53.6 net Yards-Per-Game. Their defense is giving up 379.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and that unit ranks 19th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games away from home against teams from the NFC — and this will be their fourth game on the road in the last five weeks. Minnesota will be a bit more rested after playing the Thursday game last week. They have scored 28 or more points in four of their seven games — and reinforcements are coming to help out quarterback Sam Darnold. After losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury, they acquired tackle Cam Robinson from Jacksonville. Tight end T.J. Hockenson makes his season debut tonight as well. The Colts primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone schemes against the pass — and Darnold thrives against zone coverages. He is completing over 75% of his passes and averaging over 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt against zone defenses. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games from Week Five to Week Nine.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-24 |
Colts v. Vikings OVER 45 |
Top |
13-21 |
Loss |
-112 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-4) had won two games in a row before their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (5-2) has lost two games in a row after their 30-20 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 24th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Head coach Shane Steichen turns to Joe Flacco under center moving forward as he is benching Anthony Richardson after the second-year quarterback’s struggles culminated in him taking himself out of last week’s game after getting winded on a long play. Steichen needed to make that decision to keep the faith of his locker room — especially with the team still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. In the three games that Flacco has played this season, the Colts have scored 81 combined points for a 27.0 Points-Per-Game average. Those three games saw an average of 53 combined points scored. For the season, he has seven touchdown passes and only one interception. He was never very mobile — so there could be concern about him facing the blitz-heavy Vikings defense under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But Flacco brings plenty of savvy with him — and he knows he has to get the ball out early and attack the blitz. He is averaging only one sack per 21 throws this season which is much better than Richardson’s sack rate despite his great mobility. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in adjusted sack rate allowed. They should also get plenty of production from running back Jonathan Taylor who returned from his three-game absence by rushing for 105 yards on 20 carries. The Minnesota run defense has been exposed lately as they surrendered 250 rushing yards in their last two games. The Colts' defense is giving up 379.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and that unit ranks 19th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have suffered two straight upset losses, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. This Flores defense is showing signs of vulnerability lately having surrendered 29 or more points in three of their last four games. The Vikings are giving up 263.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 235 or more passing Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has scored 28 or more points in four of their seven games — and reinforcements are coming to help out quarterback Sam Darnold. After losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury, they acquired tackle Cam Robinson from Jacksonville. Tight end T.J. Hockenson makes his season debut tonight as well. The Colts primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone schemes against the pass — and Darnold thrives against zone coverages. He is completing over 75% of his passes and averaging over 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt against zone defenses. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 28.7 PPG at home this season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total as a home favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-24 |
Pittsburgh v. SMU -7 |
|
25-48 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the SMU Mustangs (366) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (365). THE SITUATION: SMU (7-1) has won five games in a row after their 28-27 victory in overtime at Duke as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 41-13 win against Syracuse as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSTANGS MINUS THE POINTS: SMU endured a brutal -6 net turnover margin against the Blue Devils last week — but they still won that game because they won the yardage battle by +76 yards. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games after beating a conference rival. SMU was very active in the transfer portal two off-seasons ago with head coach Rhett Lashlee poaching several players from Miami (FL) where he had previously been the offensive coordinator. He employed a similar strategy on defense by using Liberty as his minor league program where defensive coordinator Scott Symons had previously run the defense. It worked. SMU won the American Athletic Conference regular season and Conference Championship Game en route to an 11-3 record. It was the play of the defense that transformed this program. After ranking 111th in the nation in 2022 by surrendering 431.2 total Yards-Per-Game, the Mustangs improved to 12th in the FBS by giving up only 304.1 YPG. Lashlee has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding the transfer portal — and he was very active once again this offseason. With only two starters returning on the offensive line, he brought in five transfers on the offensive line from Power Five conference programs. He added double-digit transfers on defense including eight linemen from Power Five conference teams. Lashlee certainly understands the challenge in SMU’s move to the ACC and they have won their first four games in the conference this season. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after the first month of the season. Pittsburgh benefited from a +5 net turnover margin last week — and that helped them overcome only gaining 217 yards in that contest and losing the yardage battle -110 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road in ACC play.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog — and SMU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the SMU Mustangs (366) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-24 |
USC v. Washington +2.5 |
|
21-26 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (378) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (377). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-17 loss at Indiana as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. USC (4-4) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 42-20 win at home against Rutgers as a 14-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington fell behind early in Bloomington last week when Will Rogers threw an interception that the Hoosiers returned for a 67-yard touchdown. The Huskies won the yardage battle by +6 net yards while holding the explosive Indiana offense to just 312 yards. Washington leads the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Huskies return home for a critical game for bowl eligibility with tough assignments still looming at Oregon and at Penn State. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. Despite their record, the Huskies have a powerful and balanced offensive attack. They rank eighth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. They also rank 15th in the FBS in Rush Success Rate and eighth in Line Yards. Running back Jonah Coleman is generating 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He should generate plenty of yards against a Trojans defense that ranks 59th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 61st in Line Yards Allowed. USC only ranks 78th in Havoc Rate as well — so Rogers should also have a good game. USC will be playing for the seventh straight week with their bye coming up next week — and they have traveled to Michigan and Maryland during that stretch. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road after winning their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after beating a conference rival. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 10 road games when favored in head coach Lincoln Riley’s tenure. USC has lost all three of their games this season as a road favorite.
FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Jedd Fisch has had plenty of success in situations like this. His teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games at home as an underdog including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home getting up to seven points. Fisch’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with Washington Huskies (378) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-24 |
Texans v. Jets -1.5 |
|
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (312) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (311). THE SITUATION: New York (2-6) has lost five games in a row after their 25-22 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Houston (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 23-20 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS: No, this is not my wink-wink message for someone to call the police because I have been kidnapped by saying someone very much out of character. I have been quite skeptical about this New York Jets team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. But they are favored tonight for a reason. It is not often teams with a 2-6 record are favored against teams with a 6-2 record. I do not invoke empirical situational angles often — but I do track this information in my database. In the last 20 years in the NFL games played in October, November, or December, there have been only eight teams who were not winning more than 25% of their games favored against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Those favorites with bad records have a 5-2-1 ATS mark going into tonight’s game. New York held the Patriots to just 247 yards last week and did not commit a turnover despite losing that game. In that “accomplishment”, they became the first team since 2013 to lose an NFL game despite holding their opponent to under 250 yards and not committing a turnover in that game. Before that game last Sunday, NFL teams who did not commit a turnover and did not allow 250 or more yards were 220-0 straight up. I do not like the chemistry and cohesion of this team at all — but perhaps that there are now 2-6 on the season, it fits their character to finally pull out a win in prime-time on Halloween night. The pressure is off at this point. They are not going to make the playoffs since that would require them to most likely reel off eight wins in their final nine games. They have an 0-4 record in games decided by six-points or less. And now they play a wounded Texans team that is without C.J. Stroud’s top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. Now Houston goes back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. The Texans are getting outscored on the road by -1.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Jets are outscoring their opponents at home by +5.6 PPG and winning the yardage battle by +119.0 net Yards-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (312) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-24 |
Texans v. Jets UNDER 43 |
Top |
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 23-20 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (2-6) has lost five games in a row after their 25-22 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans held the Colts to just 303 yards of offense in their three-point victory last week. While quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention for this team, the Houston defense under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans is outstanding. The Texans rank second in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. General manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level on that side of the ball. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair came over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgraded Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. So far this season, Houston already has 27 sacks — and they have another 54 hits on the quarterback and 52 tackles for loss. Now they face the aging Aaron Rodgers who has been sacked 13 times in his last five games while taking another 39 hits to the quarterback over that span. The Texans are allowing only 280.3 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and they are holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG in their four games on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. Now the Texans go back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. To compound matters, Stroud will be without his top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. The Texans have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York held the Patriots to only 247 yards last week but discovered another way to lose. The Jets are generating only 310.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.8 Points-Per-Game. But the New York defense is giving up only 286.8 total YPG — and they are holding their visitors to just 228.0 YPG at home which is resulting in their guests scoring only 12.0 PPG. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing at home. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored — and Houston has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-24 |
Giants v. Steelers UNDER 37.5 |
|
18-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 28-3 loss to Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (5-2) has won two games in a row after their 37-15 upset win at home against the New York Jets as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York plays lower-scoring games because they combined a solid defense with an inept offense. They rank 14th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are generating only 290.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 14.1 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their opponents to 317.6 YPG overall and 18.7 PPG when playing on the road. New York leads the league with 31 sacks. The Giants have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Additionally, New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in October. Pittsburgh ranks 10th in the league in Defensive DVOA — but they are just 21st in Offensive DVOA which is why they tend to play Unders. The Steelers hold their opponents to 298.6 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.4 PPG. Pittsburgh has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Jets last week — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored overall.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 7 straight Unders in non-conference play — and Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in non-conference action. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-24 |
Giants +6 v. Steelers |
Top |
18-26 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (291) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 28-3 loss to Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (5-2) has won two games in a row after their 37-15 upset win at home against the New York Jets as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York looked ugly last Sunday — but head coach Brian Daboll usually gets his team to respond after bad efforts. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing to an NFC East rival. New York often plays better on the road where they are 2-1 this season while outscoring their opponents by +4.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +29.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Giants have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents. Pittsburgh is the highest point spread favorite tonight in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. For the record, in the two previous games when they were the largest favorite since he retired, they got upset in both games. Many observers are bullish on what they saw with Russell Wilson last week. He completed 16 of 29 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. For me, he did not pass the eye-test so I remain very skeptical. He was dreadful in the first half of that game. He got better in the second half — but, let’s be honest, he was also the beneficiary of some incredible finger-tip catches that tipped the balance in that game. To quote Ric Flair after losing a wrestling match: “You did it once, now do it again (Whoo!).” The Wilson hype has helped push this number so high with the hope that he will find new life with the Steelers. There are many folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. The Giants only average 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are not averaging 5.7 or more YPA.
FINAL TAKE: New York is getting outscored by -7.2 Points-Per-Game — but Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams who are getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New York Giants (291) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-24 |
Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46.5 |
|
24-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (289) and the San Francisco 49ers (290). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-3) had won two games in a row before their 47-9 loss at home against Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Sundays ago. San Francisco (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-15 upset loss against Kansas City as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense is struggling as well with several key injuries. Safety Talanoa Hufanga will miss his third straight game. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrove will miss his fifth straight game tonight. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw has not played all season. Their absences help explain why San Francisco has allowed 25.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. Their defense ranks 21st in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The Niners have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total under head coach Kyle Shanahan when they are favored by 3.5 to7 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has a real predicament on defense given the injuries to linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback DaRon Bland. And in hindsight, perhaps that unit was destined to take a step back after defensive coordinator Dan Quinn left to take the Washington head coaching job. The Cowboys have surrendered 44 or more points twice this season after the Lions generated 492 yards against them. Dallas has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. They have also played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Niners average 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry while the Cowboys are allowing their opponents to generate 4.5 YPC. Dallas has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who are generating 4.5 or more YPC — and San Francisco has played 4 straight Overs against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more YPC. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (289) and the San Francisco 49ers (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-24 |
Cowboys +6 v. 49ers |
Top |
24-30 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (289) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (290). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-3) had won two games in a row before their 47-9 loss at home against Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Sundays ago. San Francisco (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-15 upset loss against Kansas City as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams come off bad losses — and both of these teams need the victory to keep pace in the NFC playoff race. The loser is in serious trouble. I expect a close game. I am not surprised about the struggles of this Dallas team — and their predicament is made all the worse with the injuries to linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback DaRon Bland. But this team was humiliated two weeks ago by the Lions. With two weeks to rest and prepare, I suspect we will see the very best version of what this Cowboys team can be. Don’t underestimate head coach Mike McCarthy’s abilities to self-scout his team on the bye week. His teams going back to Green Bay have covered the point spread in 14 of their 19 games with two weeks to prepare including covering the point spread in three of the four games with the Cowboys. Furthermore, McCarthy’s teams are 38-23-3 ATS in their 64 games when he has had extra time to prepare — and his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games with extra time with Dallas. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 18 of their 24 games in the regular season played with extra rest with Dak Prescott their starting quarterback — and Dallas has covered 12 of their last 15 regular season games since 2019 with Prescott at QB including those last six occasions. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a losing record. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least .500 of their games with Brock Purdy at quarterback. While the hyperventilating in the national media continues regarding whether or not the former Iowa State quarterback is overrated or underrated, the numbers indicate that he has a 6-6 record in his last 12 starts while completing only 63.5% of his passes with 14 touchdown passes and 14 turnovers. His Passer Rating in his last 12 games is just 87.8. His better numbers — along with head coach Kyle Shanahan — tend to arrive when running back Christian McCaffrey is healthy and playing. Now not only McCaffrey is still on the shelf this season but wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings are both out for this game. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is questionable but expected to play after being in the hospital with pneumonia earlier in the week. Tight end George Kittle is also questionable but expected to play. It is reasonable to conclude neither is close to 100%. This is not good news for a Niners offense that is the sixth-worst in the Red Zone this season. The defense is struggling as well with several key injuries. Safety Talanoa Hufanga will miss his third straight game. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrove will miss his fifth straight game tonight. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw has not played all season. Their absences help explain why San Francisco has allowed 25.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. Their defense ranks 21st in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Dallas generates 259.3 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who average 235 or more passing YPG. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (289) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-24 |
Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
27-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-0) remained undefeated this season after their 28-18 upset victory at San Francisco as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-5) has lost three games in a row after their 20-15 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the 49ers’ offense to joust 310 yards. But the Kansas City offense only managed 329 yards of offense despite being on the field for over 35 minutes of that game. Patrick Mahomes only passed for 154 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The team did acquire wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins this week which will help — but he will not immediately replace the production of injured wideout Rashee Rice. The defense is carrying this team. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to 306.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.2 Points-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 18 points in four straight contests. They rank fourth in DVOA defense using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and now he faces a limited Raiders offense that he prepares against twice a season. Kansas City has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, while the Chiefs have played four straight Unders, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks Five through Nine. Las Vegas has not scored more than 18 points in three straight games as they learn to live life without wide receiver Davante Adams. They are scoring just 15.3 PPG in those last three games. For the season, the Raiders are generating just 296.7 total YPG which is resulting in 17.7 PPG. Their offense ranks 29th in DVOA. With second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell injured, it will be Gardner Minshew back under center — he has a career-low 73.2 Quarterback Rating this season. But the Las Vegas defense has been solid under head coach Antonio Pierce. They held the Rams to just 259 yards last week — and they are giving up only 316.9 total YPG this season. Pierce knows this Chiefs offense — he was the interim coach last Christmas when the Raiders upset Kansas City by a 20-14 score. Minshew was responsible for four turnovers last week in a game that Las Vegas ended with a -3 net turnover margin — and Las Vegas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Raiders are giving up 26.1 PPG — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders against teams giving up 24 or more PPG. Kansas City is generating 350.3 YPG which is resulting in 24.3 PPG — and Las Vegas has played 4 straight Unders against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who generate 350 or more YPG. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Lastly, KC has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC West rivals. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-24 |
Kansas v. Kansas State OVER 55.5 |
|
27-29 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (181) and the Kansas State Wildcats (182). THE SITUATION: Kansas (1-5) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 42-14 victory against Houston as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Kansas State (6-1) has won three games in a row after their 45-18 win at West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks generated 467 yards last week against the Cougars with quarterback Jalon Daniels completing 16 of 21 passes for 247 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Daniels is inconsistent — he can lead an offense that puts up plenty of points but his mistakes too often put the opponent in scoring position. Kansas has scored 73 combined points in their last two games — and they have scored at least 27 points in four games in a row. But they had given up at least 32 points in three straight games before last week. Overall, they are scoring and surrendering 27.5 Points-Per-Game. Against fellow Big 12 rivals, are scoring 32.0 PPG but giving up 29.8 PPG. The Jayhawks have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total in conference play. They have also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight Overs on the road getting 7.5 to 14 points as the dog. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in October. The Wildcats are scoring 33.3 PPG — and Kansas has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams scoring 31 or more PPG including seven of their last eight games on the road Over the Total against those teams. Kansas State has scored 118 combined points in their last three games for a 39.3 PPG scoring average. They return home where they are generating 467.0 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 38.0 PPG. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against Big 12 rivals. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Under head coach Lance Leipold, Kansas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Kansas State has played 5 of the last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (181) and the Kansas State Wildcats (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-24 |
Kansas v. Kansas State -9.5 |
|
27-29 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/26:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Kansas State minus the points versus Kansas. Kansas State (6-1) has won three games in a row after a 45-18 victory at West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Wildcats return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Kansas (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 42-14 victory at home against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. The Jayhawks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Take Kansas State minus the points. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month last night with Chicago’s UPSET WIN against Milwaukee! Frank is on a 5 of 8 (63%) College Football run to continue his 8 of 13 (62%) CFB winning mark — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month for Saturday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!
|
10-26-24 |
Auburn v. Kentucky -1.5 |
Top |
24-10 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (3-4) has lost two games in a row after their 48-20 upset loss at Florida as a 2.5-point road favorite last Saturday. Auburn (2-5) has lost four games in a row after their 21-17 loss at Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Kentucky got upset at home to what looks like a pretty good Vanderbilt team two weeks ago — and they laid an egg last week by getting upset for the second straight week at Florida against the Gators. Look for head coach Mark Stoops to right the ship tonight. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after getting upset by an SEC rival in the Stoops era. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after getting beat in their last contest. Kentucky has been inconsistent with bad losses like last week — but remember that this group has also upset Ole Miss this season and lost by only one point at home to Georgia. Their defense is the best unit on the field in this one — they are holding their opponents to just 283.6 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats return home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games when favored by up to seven points. They are outscoring their opponents by +6.6 PPG when playing at home — and they are outgaining their guests by +87.6 net YPG. Kentucky is very tough to move the ball on when they are playing at home — they are limiting their visitors to just 231.2 total YPG resulting in 14.0 PPG. This is a good matchup for the Wildcats. Led by running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, they rank 13th in Rushing Success Rate. Quarterback Brock Vandergriff has been inconsistent — but he has been effective in play-action with the Wildcats ranking 21st in the nation in Pass Explosiveness. The Tigers rank 44th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have allowed 130 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games. Auburn is a mess after losing for their fourth game in a row. Their victory against New Mexico last month represents their only win against a team from the FBS. Second-year head coach Hugh Freeze is at risk of getting fired — he replaced a head coach who was let go in his second season. The vibes aren’t good. The Tigers blew a 17-6 lead entering the fourth quarter to Missouri — and they also blew a 21-10 fourth quarter lead against Oklahoma. These problems speak to a lack of team confidence and chemistry with the players making too many mistakes down the stretch. Quarterback Payton Thorne has thrown six interceptions. Auburn wants to run the ball behind running ball Jarquez Hunter -- but he will face one of the best defensive fronts in the FBS tonight. Kentucky ranks 17th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They also rank 16th in Havoc Rate — and that spells trouble for the mistake-ridden Tigers team that ranks 103rd in Havoc Rate Allowed. To compound matters, Auburn is playing their third straight game away from home.
FINAL TAKE: This is simply a bad matchup for the Tigers who struggle against stout defenses that thrive in stopping the run. The Wildcats are giving up only 105.7 rushing YPG. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams not giving up more than 120 rushing yards per game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against opponents like this. Lastly, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who do not give up more than 310 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against opponents like this. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-24 |
Vikings v. Rams +3 |
|
20-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (110) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (109). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 20-15 victory at home against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. Minnesota (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak to start the season snapped on Sunday in a 31-29 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a tough spot for the Vikings to recover from their tough loss at home against the Lions by traveling to Los Angeles on a short week. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Despite only one loss this season, the Vikings are getting outgained by -7.6 net Yards-Per-Game. They are also getting outgained by -6.7 net YPG when playing on the road. Quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 50 throws — and he will still not have tight end T.J. Hockenson with the team declining to move him off the injured list for tonight’s game. Darnold thrives against man-to-man pass defense against which he generates 10.6 Yards-Per-Attempt, ranking second in the NFL. But now he faces a Rams defense that plays zone defense against the pass 76% of the time which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Darnold only averages 7.8 YPA against zone defenses this season, ranking 14th in the league. Darnold also struggles against pressure against which he ranks 28th amongst NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per dropback — as opposed to his rating fifth amongst quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when operating in a clean pocket. He is getting sacked 25% of the time when facing pressure. Here comes this Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate led by Jared Verse. The rookie from Florida State being counted on to fill some of the void in the pass rush after Aaron Donald retired in the offseason has 29 pressures already this season. The Rams are getting good news with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua activated to play this game (although Nacua may not be able to go when push comes to shove tonight). A more credible passing attack will make running back Kyren Williams even more dangerous out of the backfield. In his last four games, Williams has 401 yards and seven touchdowns from 93 touches. Minnesota is scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game — but Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams scoring 24 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games under head coach Sean McVay when playing on a short week with four days of preparation. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (110) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-24 |
Vikings v. Rams UNDER 48 |
Top |
20-30 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak to start the season snapped on Sunday in a 31-29 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 1-point favorite. Los Angeles (2-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 20-15 victory at home against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings surrendered 31 points last week which was the second time all season they have given up more than 17 points this season. When not playing the Lions or Green Bay, then Minnesota is only giving up 11.7 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores' defense ranks number one in the NFL in both Run Defense DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. On the road, the Vikings are surrendering just 319.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 6 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. Quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 50 throws — and he will still not have tight end T.J. Hockenson with the team declining to move him off the injured list for tonight’s game. Darnold thrives against man-to-man pass defense against which he generates 10.6 Yards-Per-Attempt, ranking second in the NFL. But now he faces a Rams defense that plays zone defense against the pass 76% of the time which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Darnold only averages 7.8 YPA against zone defenses this season, ranking 14th in the league. Darnold also struggles against pressure against which he ranks 28th amongst NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per dropback — as opposed to his rating fifth amongst quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when operating in a clean pocket. He is getting sacked 25% of the time when facing pressure. Here comes this Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate led by Jared Verse. The rookie from Florida State being counted on to fill some of the void in the pass rush after Aaron Donald retired in the offseason has 29 pressures already this season. Los Angeles only generated 259 yards last week with one of their touchdowns coming from a 33-yard fumble recovery. The Rams are getting good news with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua activated to play this game (although Nacua may not be able to go when push comes to shove tonight). But the team did not activate starting tackle Joe Noteboom from the injured list — and the porous offensive line has played a big role in holding back their offense. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 114 throws. They have scored more than 20 points only once this season. But the defense continues to improve — especially since Week Five after cornerback Tre’Davious White was benched. The Rams held Green Bay to just 323 total yards two weeks ago before limiting the Raiders to 317 yards last week. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home in October. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total. And while the Vikings are allowing 260.8 passing YPG, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 235 or more passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Minnesota has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-24 |
UTEP v. Louisiana Tech OVER 48.5 |
Top |
10-14 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). THE SITUATION: UTEP (1-6) snapped their six-game losing streak to start the season with a 30-21 upset victory as a 7-point underdog last Wednesday. Louisiana Tech (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after a 33-30 loss in overtime at New Mexico State last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent going into their bye week at the end of last month. Third-year head coach Sonny Cumbie took advantage of that reset by benching junior Jack Turner and turning to redshirt freshman Evan Bullock at quarterback. Louisiana Tech responded by scoring 48 points in a 27-point victory at home against Middle Tennessee. Their 30 points were not enough to stave off the upset loss to the Aggies last week — but the Bulldogs have played 4 straight Overs after an upset loss in their last game. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has played 7 of their last 8 games in October Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Conference USA rivals. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. On paper, the Bulldogs are playing much better defense than they did last season. They have held four of their six opponents to 23 or fewer points — and they rank 19th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. But they have benefited from an easy strength of schedule so far with four of their opponents ranked 117th or worse in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rating system. UTEP generated 372 yards and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week in their nine-point upset win against the Golden Panthers. The Miners go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5-10 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is generating 254.5 passing Yards-Per-Game this season — and UTEP has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. The Miners are giving up 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Bulldogs have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams who generate 4.75 or more YPC. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-24 |
Ravens v. Bucs +4.5 |
|
41-31 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (475). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-2) has won two of their last three games after their 51-27 victory at New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (4-2) has won four games in a row after their 30-23 victory at home against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay is a bit underrated. They are on the team in the NFL that ranks in the top-11 in the NFL in rushing and passing on offense as well as run defense and pass defense. They upset the Detroit Lions and they should be 5-1 except for a somewhat fluky loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Wide receiver Mike Evans is off the injury list — and defensive tackle Vita Vea is expected to play tonight after being listed as questionable all week. The offense generated a whopping 594 yards last week against the Saints — and they scored 114 combined points in their last three games. With the emergence of Sean Tucker last week, the Buccaneers have a three-headed monster at running back with Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and him. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning on the road in their previous game. Additionally, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. I don’t have much bad to say about Baltimore — but the concerns I had about their defense in my offseason deep-dive on the team seem to be coming to fruition. I worried about the brain drain on that side of the ball from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over the defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. The Ravens are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 7.5 yards per pass attempt which ranks 28th in the NFL. They also rank last in the league by surrendering 275.7 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who are giving up 235 or more passing YPG. And while Baltimore is averaging 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt this season, Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are averaging 7.0 or more YPA. Furthermore, while Lamar Jackson has an incredible 22-1 straight-up record against teams from the NFC, he is also just 21-31-1 ATS in his 53 starts in the NFL when favored by more than three points.
FINAL TAKE: With Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 10 of their 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 games as a dog getting more than three points with Mayfield under center. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tampa Bay ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-24 |
Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 51 |
|
41-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (475) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-2) has won four games in a row after their 30-23 victory at home against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-2) has won two of their last three games after their 51-27 victory at New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding rookie Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense to just 305 yards of offense. They lead the NFL in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They have been particularly stout against the run as they are holding their opponents to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry and 59.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. And while the Buccaneers are giving up 252.3 passing YPG, the Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are surrendering 235 or more passing YPG. Additionally, Baltimore has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Tampa Bay held the Saints to just 303 yards last week. The Buccaneers have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 straight Unders after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. The Bucs defense looks likely to get a boost tonight with defensive tackle Vita Vea expected to play after being listed as questionable all week. His return helps a defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards Allowed per opponent rushing attempt.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (475) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-24 |
Jets v. Steelers +2.5 |
|
15-37 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) plus the points versus the New York Jets (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. While the Jets are playing with a huge sense of urgency this week — that was also the case last week when they hosted Buffalo with first place in the AFC East on the line. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record. Russell Wilson gets the start tonight — but look for Justin Fields to still be on the field for special packages that take advantage of his running skills. Whether it is Fields or Wilson, the Pittsburgh offense is going to a run-first attack executing offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s game plan.
FINAL TAKE: The pressure cooker of this New York Jets team is even growing hotter and hotter the more they lose and then make more changes. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) plus the points versus the New York Jets (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-24 |
Jets v. Steelers UNDER 39.5 |
Top |
15-37 |
Loss |
-111 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York continues to play great defense — they are limiting their opponents to just 273.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.0 PPG. And while the Steelers are generating 131.5 rushing YPG, the Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG. Pittsburgh only gained 293 yards last week in their 19-point victory against the Raiders. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Pittsburgh held the Raiders to just 275 yards of offense last week. This stout Steelers defense is giving up only 294.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.3 PPG. The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 17 PPG. The sluggish offense has compelled head coach Mike Tomlin to bench Justin Fields in lieu of Russell Wilson at quarterback. It’s not surprising that the team wants to see if Wilson can jumpstart this offense. I am not optimistic. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' old seminar in his last few seasons in Green Bay on stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions in Denver last season under head coach Sean Payton — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continued to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. There is a reason that Payton concluded the best decision for the franchise was to eat his big contract and move on. Don’t be surprised if Wilson continues to take sacks and throw shorter passes in the Arthur Smith offense — but, hey, his front-line completion numbers won’t be too bad. Since 2022, Wilson is completing only 63.3% of his passed while averaging 219.8 passing YPG and posting a 90.9 Passer Rating. And while Wilson will still move in the pocket, he has lost a step (or two) from the secret sauce that made him so effective when he was a younger player with Seattle. The offense loses the x-factor of the rushing quarterback without Fields under center. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total between Weeks Five and Nine.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Jets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in that 35.5-42 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-24 |
Eagles v. Giants +3 |
Top |
28-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (466) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (465). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-7 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 4-point underdog last Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York outgained the Bengals last Sunday night by + 5 net yards. Despite their 2-4 record, the Giants are outgaining their opponents this season by +5.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Injuries have hit this team hard with passer rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and now left tackle Andrew Thomas out — but the offense is getting rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Devin Singletary back for this game. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games after losing their last game. They stay at home to play for just the third time this season. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after the first month of the season. Additionally, they have covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are generating 366.8 total Yards-Per-Game, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who average 350 or more YPG. Philadelphia is getting outscored this season by -1.2 Points-Per-Game despite their 3-2 record. The Eagles will be without tight end Dallas Goedert due to injury in this game. That’s not good news for an offense that is just the fourth NFL team in the last 15 years to fail to score in the first quarter after five games. I suspect this speaks to the lack of chemistry between embattled head coach Joe Sirianni, quarterback Jalen Hurts, and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games against NFC East rivals under Sirianni.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record. The Giants have covered the point spread in 14 of their 20 games against teams with a winning record under head coach Brian Daboll — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. 25* NFC East Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (466) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-24 |
Kansas State v. West Virginia +3 |
Top |
45-18 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (3-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 28-16 loss at home to Iowa State as a 3-point underdog. Kansas State (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 31-28 victory at Colorado as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia’s three losses are all against ranked teams — Penn State, Pittsburgh, and the Cyclones last week — who all remained undefeated so far this season. They are outscoring their opponents by +4.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +50.7 net Yards-Per-Game given a powerful offense that generates 428.5 YPG. The Mountaineers have a Thunder and Lightning backfield of Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson, Jr. along with dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene who rushed for 87 yards on ten carries last week against Iowa State. They rank 24th in the nation in Rush Success Rate. West Virginia should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing to a Big 12 rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Kansas State won a thriller on the road against the Buffaloes last week — but they have failed to cover the point spreads in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win against a Big 12 opponent. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Quarterback Avery Johnson can be inconsistent — especially on the road. In their 38-9 loss at BYU, Johnson threw two interceptions and only averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Wildcats are also vulnerable with their pass defense as they rank 104th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed while giving up 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has their in-state rivalry game against Kansas on deck next week — so they may be looking ahead. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Month is with the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-24 |
Broncos -1.5 v. Saints |
|
33-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (311) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) had won three games in a row before their 23-16 loss at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans (2-4) has lost four games in a row after their 51-27 loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Chargers last week coming off their bye week and getting healthier against their AFC West rivals. In this turnaround game on a short week, Denver’s defense is — by far — the best unit in this contest. With the Saints absolutely ravaged by injuries, head coach Sean Payton will manage this game effectively and limit big mistakes to help his rookie quarterback Bo Nix win this game. The Broncos' defense ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Denver ranks fourth in the league in pressure rate — and in the last four weeks, they lead the NFL with 93 pressures on the quarterback. The Saints will privilege running the football with rookie Spencer Rattler making his second professional start tonight. The Broncos are second in the NFL in stuffing the run at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, Denver is giving up only 284.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.0 Points-Per-Game. Nix is doing his job in limiting mistakes and making smart plays with his arm or his legs. He has seven touchdowns and only one interception in his last four games. He threw two touchdown passes last week and added another 61 yards on the ground from six carries. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road following a loss. And while they suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Chargers, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home following a loss. The Saints are simply ravaged by injuries right now. Quarterback Derek Carr is out once again which means Rattler will be under center. The offense gained only 303 total yards last week against the Buccaneers in his first career start. Starting wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Sheehan are both out leaving Rattler without their top two weapons in the passing game. The offensive line is banged up with starters Cesar Ruiz out and Lucas Patrick questionable. Even their joker threat Taysom Hill is doubtful to play which likely removes their short-yardage do-it-all threat. Rattler is going to struggle with the Broncos great pass rush. New Orleans ranks 29th in the league in Passing Blocking Win Rate — and they have given up 78 pressures on the quarterback in their last four games which is the fifth worst in the NFL during that span. The Saints offense has the second-fewest gains of 20 or more yards in the league. And after a good start to the season, the defense has plummeted quickly. New Orleans has allowed 457.3 YPG in their last four games — and their last two opponents have generated 319 passing YPG against them. Their run defense ranks third-worst in the league in stuff rate at or behind the line of scrimmage. Kansas City and Tampa Bay generated 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry against them in their last two games. The Saints stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in the first half of the season. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are giving up 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and the Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are surrendering 4.5 or more YPC. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with Denver Broncos (311) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-24 |
Broncos v. Saints UNDER 37 |
|
33-10 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) had won three games in a row before their 23-16 loss at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans (2-4) has lost four games in a row after their 51-27 loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver’s defense is — by far — the best unit in this contest. With the Saints absolutely ravaged by injuries, head coach Sean Payton will manage this game effectively and limit big mistakes to help his rookie quarterback Bo Nix win this game. The Broncos' defense ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Denver ranks fourth in the league in pressure rate — and in the last four weeks, they lead the NFL with 93 pressures on the quarterback. The Saints will privilege running the football with rookie Spencer Rattler making his second professional start tonight. The Broncos are second in the NFL in stuffing the run at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, Denver is giving up only 284.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.0 Points-Per-Game. But the offense ranks just 26th in Offensive DVOA — and they are only generating 278.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.7 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Saints are simply ravaged by injures right now. Quarterback Derek Carr is out once again which means Rattler will be under center. The offense gained only 303 total yards last week against the Buccaneers in his first career start. Starting wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Sheehan are both out leaving Rattler without their top two weapons in the passing game. The offensive line is banged up with starters Cesar Ruiz out and Lucas Patrick questionable. Even their joker threat Taysom Hill is doubtful to play which likely removes their short-yardage do-it-all threat. Rattler is going to struggle with the Broncos great pass rush. New Orleans ranks 29th in the league in Passing Blocking Win Rate — and they have given up 78 pressures on the quarterback in their last four games which is the fifth worst in the NFL during that span. The Saints offense has the second fewest gains of 20 or more yards in the league. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-24 |
Bills -1 v. Jets |
|
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (287) minus the point spread versus the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a gut-check game for both these divisional rivals. The situation says to take the Jets — but Buffalo is just as desperate to get things going again after losing two games in a row. The critics of head coach Sean McDermott for attempted three pass plays deep in the Bills’ end of the field late in the game against the Texans are ankle-biters. While I would have probably run the ball once to create some room for Josh Allen to make some passes while not standing in his end zone — and help out an eventual punt, if necessary — even running the ball three times and forcing Houston to burn all three of their timeouts was going to give C.J. Stroud enough time to get within field goal range. The Bills needed a first down — so keeping the ball in the hands of his superstar Allen makes sense. He looked hurt last week — but he should be a bit better this week with the opportunity to rest. Running back James Cook claims he is going to play tonight despite his turf toe. Curtis Samuel is ready to take more of a role in the passing game if Khalil Shakir cannot go. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as a favorite of up to seven points. And in their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range, the Bills have covered the point spread in 10 of those games. The culture McDermott has built in Buffalo is much better than with New York. The Jets are a hot mess. It looks like Aaron Rodgers got head coach Robert Saleh fired. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is the interim head coach — and he used his momentary position of leverage to take the play-calling duties away from Nathaniel Hackett, yet who will still stay employed by the team to do who knows what besides being Rodgers buddy. Rodgers denies all this — as if lying is an impossible act when speaking to NFL “insiders.” Maybe I have this situation wrong — but how many of Rodgers’ teammates will it take to believe that he is the de-facto general manager of the team for more dissension to mount? Saleh was popular in the locker room! Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. The Jets have played four straight Unders -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: I am well aware that NFL teams turning to an interim head coach have covered the point spread in 17 of the last 30 games in the first week after sacking the previous coach. I have often endorsed those sides! In this instance — with the Rodgers’ dynamic (and health), with Hackett still in the building, the pressure of being at home, and the absurdity of hiring a popular head coach whose defense has been playing great — I am skeptical that this is the move that (once again) finally compels this team to flip the switch and live to their preseason hype. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (287) minus the point spread versus the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-24 |
Bills v. Jets UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
23-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 276 yards of offense against the Texans. Josh Allen played his worst game of the season by completing just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards. Frankly, he looks injured and not playing close to 100% health. He has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 59 pass attempts. Now he faces a tough Jets defense that has held him to just a 74 Passer Rating in his last four games against them. The Bills offense may also be without wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook who are listed as questionable with the injuries. As it is, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders when on the road as the favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Bills defense has been playing well. That unit ranks tenth in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the pass using the metrics of the Football Outsiders. They also rank sixth in the league in fewest plays of 20 or more yards allowed. New York only gained 254 yards last week which led to the firing of head coach Robert Saleh and the removal of Nathaniel Hackett of the play-calling duties. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Aaron Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. But this Jets’ defense remains outstanding. They lead the league by holding their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play. They rank second in the NFL by allowing only 255.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 133.6 passing YPG. They are tied for fifth by giving up just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. The Jets have played four straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog of seven points or less. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-24 |
Bengals v. Giants +3.5 |
|
17-7 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (286) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (285). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: This Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game — but both of these players were unavailable last week in their upset win on the road against Seattle. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. He has Daniel Jones playing better at quarterback this season by, first and foremost, limiting his mistakes. He has thrown only two interceptions and has not lost a fumble in his five games this season. New York is getting better play on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The offensive line was battered with injuries last season, so being healthy this year has helped the cohesion of that group. The defensive line is much better after trading for Brian Burns in the offseason. The Giants return home to play for just the second time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at MetLife Stadium. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 10 games in October, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. Cincinnati is scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three games with a healthy wide receiver corps again — but their defense has been a disaster by allowing 29.0 PPG which is the second-highest mark in the league. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — and this plays right into Daboll’s desire to shorten this game by burning time off the clock. At first glance in my preseason deep dive on this team, I wanted to consider the Bengals on the short list of teams to overtake Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was slowed by a calf injury suffered early in last year’s training camp that helps explain Cincinnati’s 1-3 start where they generated only 12.3 Points-Per-Game. Burrow only completed 576% of his passes for 728 yards during that stretch. But after recovering, he completed 72.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in his next seven games before suffering his season-ending wrist injury. I remain concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while running back Joe Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? Then there is the defense that ranked 31st in the league by allowing 374.6 Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, losing safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell took away too much leadership (and play-calling) for an inexperienced defensive backfield that was starting rookies or second-year players by the end of the season. Covering for their mistakes could explain the down seasons for linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. After committing only 76 missed tackles in 2022-23, the Bengals missed 124 tackles last year, the second-highest jump in the NFL. Cincinnati has spent eight of their last ten draft picks in the first three rounds on the defensive side of the ball — so perhaps a growth spurt is coming from this investment in talent. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is as good as it gets. They brought back Bell in free agency while adding former Baltimore free safety Geno Stone to fortify the group with veterans. And while the Bengals faced 11 of 17 teams that ranked in the top 12 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, they still got outscored by 1.1 PPG and outgained by -55.7 net YPG. After more than a quarter into the season, the defense remains a significant problem. Could they count on a +10 net turnover margin again? Nope — so far they have five turnovers and five takeaways. Will team cohesion take a hit with both wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson wanting new deals? The team chemistry looks fragile with Burrow being caught on camera marching into the coach’s office after a recent loss. I concluded that the seeds are certainly in place for why this team once again sputters — and an overtime loss to Baltimore to see them drop to 1-4 has this team starting into the abyss. Their backers seem to think they can flip this switch as a road favorite of more than a field goal despite their only victory being against Carolina. The Giants think they can win this game against a struggling team.
FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (286) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (285). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-24 |
Bengals v. Giants UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
17-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I looked very closely at the Over for this game — how could one not after the Bengals have seen four straight games with at least 51 combined points scored with them scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three with the wide receivers back and healthy. But I also have my own database of empirical NFL angles to help inform my decisions — and in the last 47 NFL games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range involving one team that has played four or more games in a row with 50 or more combined points scored, 37 of those games finished Under the Total. Even with my long reports, I leave much of the evidence out that helped form my conclusion — and I rarely invoke empirical situational angles like this since so often it is just data-mining. But in this instance, I found it highly relevant. Why didn’t the books place the Total in the 50s given Cincinnati’s recent run? Well, as I argued when proffering the question as to why the Los Angeles Chargers were favored despite being on the road with a losing streak facing a home team on a winning streak, because the Chargers are going to cover the point spread — or, in this instance because tonight’s game is likely going to be lower scoring. New York had not scored more than 21 points in their first four games before last week — and they held the ball for an uncharacteristic 37:22 minutes in that game. Now this Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game. They are averaging only 321.4 total Yards-Per-Game. But the New York defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG which is resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. This dynamic has helped the Giants play 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the goal will certainly be to keep Joe Burrow off the field tonight. Furthermore, New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home. The Giants are allowing their opponents to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry -- and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — so don’t expect tons of Cincinnati possessions tonight which will help keep the score down.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-24 |
Chargers -3 v. Broncos |
Top |
23-16 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 17-10 loss at home to Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog back on September 29th. Denver (3-2) has won three games in a row after their 34-18 win at home against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Why is a team on the road who is on a two-game losing streak favored against a home team with a better record who is on a three-game winning streak? Well, the short answer is because they are going to cover the point spread. Here is the longer answer. Los Angeles has the better quarterback in Justin Herbert and the better roster overall — and they are coming off their bye week in much better health. Injuries have hit this team hard early on — especially on the offensive line with both left tackle Rashawn Slater and rookie right tackle Joe Alt having to miss the game against the Chiefs. But the Chargers were still competitive with the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. Herbert is not 100% either with his lingering ankle injury — so getting the week off should really help him. Head coach Jim Harbaugh gets both his starting tackles back for this game — and that can only help running back J.K. Dobbins. The former Ohio State star is finally healthy and demonstrating his vast potential by generating 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Los Angeles’ offensive numbers are not very good — but they should be taken with a grain of salt given their injuries. Their defensive numbers, on the other hand, are quite impressive so far this season despite the offense not offering much help. The Chargers lead the NFL by allowing only 12.5 Points-Per-Game and 282.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They also lead the league with their opponents only scoring touchdowns on 28.6% of their visits inside the Red Zone. These numbers are validated by the analytics at Football Outsiders that rank their defense as the second best in the league in Defensive DVOA. That unit gets safety, Derwin James, back as well after he was suspended last week for the Kansas City game. This team should take a step or two forward schematically under Harbaugh and his coaching staff coming off the bye week. And the veterans will remember that the Broncos won both games against them last season. Denver beat the Raiders last week despite only gaining 289 yards of offense and getting outgained by -41 net yards. Their 100-yard interception returned for a touchdown was a 14-point turnaround in that game — and the Broncos benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. Head coach Sean Payton is finding success employing the Harbaugh formula (and Bill Belichick, for that matter) of limiting mistakes, relying on their defense, and waiting for their opponents to start doing dumb stuff. The Denver defense ranks fourth in Defensive DVOA. But the offense is a bee-bee gun with rookie Bo Nix under center. To his credit, he has not thrown an interception in his last three games. But he is averaging only 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in his last four games which continues the concern I had about him in the preseason. Nix was praised for his football lQ and the operation of a rhythm-and-timing offense with the Oregon Ducks last season that relied on his great accuracy. That may be another way of saying he lacks a big arm (and neither did Brees when compared to Dan Marino). But 152 of Nix’s passes last year in college were at or behind the line of scrimmage and another 128 pass attempts were no more than five air yards. That kinda sounds like Russell Wilson last year whose average depth of target continued to decline but whose strong-armed moon shots to Courtland Sutton could make the final raw numbers look better by the end of the game. Nix does not have that moonshot in his arsenal which seems to put a hard ceiling on the potential of this offense. Denver ranks 29th in the league this season by averaging only 1.49 Points-Per-Drive. Overall, they are generating only 270.6 total YPG which is resulting in 19.2 PPG. The offense ranks 25th in Offensive DVOA. And while the defensive numbers have been great, they have played the New York Jets, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay in their three wins along with Pittsburgh. The most potent offense they have defended was Seattle in Week One. Under Sean Payton, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games played on grass in the Payton regime.
FINAL TAKE: Harbaugh’s teams in the NFL have covered the point spread in 22 of their 36 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their 18 games on the road when favored by up to six points. His teams have also covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games played in October. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (278). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
10-12-24 |
Boise State v. Hawaii +21 |
|
28-7 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-24 loss at San Diego State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (4-1) has won three games in a row after their loss to Oregon with their 62-30 victory as a 28-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i could be 4-1 with just a couple of breaks. Against both UCLA and then the Aztecs last week, they blew fourth quarter leads in eventual losses by three-point losses. They outgained San Diego State last week by +27 net yards. Quarterback Brayden Schager has seen his wide receivers drop 18 passes which is the most in the FBS. The Rainbow Warriors are a pretty good football team that is being lifted up by a surprisingly stout defense. Hawai’i ranks 12th in the nation Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They rank 14th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. Against FBS opponents, they are allowing just 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which ranks in the top 60 in the nation. They are holding their opponents to just 309.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.0 Points-Per-Game. The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring their opponents by +5.2 PPG and outgaining them by +50.8 net YPG. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games off a win by 17 or more points. The Broncos are lead by running back Ashton Jeanty who is a leading early candidate to win the Heisman Trophy — but they are vulnerable on defense. The Aggies gained 507 yards against them including 371 yards in the air from a 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Georgia Southern scored 45 points against them. They rank 106 in Pass Success Rate Allowed and outside the top 100 in Expected Points Allowed per Opponent Pass Attempt. They rank 92nd in Explosiveness Allowed. They also rank 82nd in Finishing Drives Allowed — and the Rainbow Warriors rank a solid 40th in Finishing Drives. Overall, Boise State is surrendering 402.6 YPG which is resulting in 30.0 PPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road in the first half of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. Led by Jeanty, the Boise State offense is explosive — but he did not play in the second half last week after getting rested in the second half earlier in the year against Portland State. With a big showdown with UNLV on deck, Jeanty is not likely to play if the Broncos are cruising — and that should set up, at worst, a decent back door cover opportunity when considering the state of the Boise State defense.
FINAL TAKE: Under head coach Tommy Chang, the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents with two outright upset victories. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout is with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-24 |
Ole Miss v. LSU +4 |
|
26-29 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). THE SITUATION: LSU (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 42-10 victory against South Alabama as a 21-point favorite back on September 28th. Mississippi (5-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to win at South Carolina by a 27-3 score as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU has the benefit of the extra week to rest and prepare for this game. Head coach Brian Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 23 games with the benefit of the bye week. The Tigers offense is transitioning to a new run blocking scheme which will play to the strengths of freshman Caden Durham who is emerging as the team’s best running back. He rushed for 128 yards on just seven carries against the Jaguars two weeks ago. A more effective rushing attack will only help quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in the passing game. He is completing 70% of his passes and averaging 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he is completing over 50% of his passes of ten or more air yards. As it is, LSU ranks fifth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after winning their previous game at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after a win by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — including Ole Miss’ 55-49 upset win at home as a 2.5-point underdog on September 30th last season. LSU has won 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when attempting to avenge a loss to their opponent. 10* CFB Ole Miss-USC ABC-TV Special with the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-24 |
Florida v. Tennessee -14 |
|
17-23 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-1) lost their first game of the season last Saturday in a 19-14 upset loss at Arkansas as a 14-point favorite. Florida (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 24-13 upset victory against Central Florida as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Much of the shine has been taken off this Tennessee team after their supposed high-powered offense only managed to score 39 combined points in their last two games after putting up 191 combined points in their first three contests. But their last two games have been on the road against two of the better defenses in the nation against Oklahoma and Arkansas last week. Those are tough assignments for any quarterback — but especially for a freshman QB like Nico Iamaleava playing in hostile environments for the first time. Returning home should help the talented rookie where he has completed 32 of 44 passes (72.7%) with four touchdown passes, no interceptions, just one sack, and an 11.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. On the road, he has completed 46 of 73 passes (63.0%) with three touchdown passes but two interceptions and seven sacks along with a 7.7 YPA average. Now Iamaleava gets to throw against a suspect Gators 'defense that ranks 86th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. This is a nice get-right game for the Volunteers who have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home in the first half of the season. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Tennessee was probably a bit overrated after their first three games at home — but this team is different under head coach Josh Heupel because they are finally legit on the defensive side of the football. The Volunteers are one of five teams in the nation holding their opponents to single digits with the 9.4 Points-Per-Game they are allowing. They rank second in the FBS by giving up just 227.4 total Yards-Per-Game. The tempo-free analytics are also quite good for this defense. They lead the nation in Rush Success Rate Allowed. They rank second in Finishing Drives Allowed. They rank sixth in Havoc Rate. They rank 36th in Pass Success Rate Allowed — and while that is still pretty, pretty good, Florida is probably not the team to take advantage of this relative weakness. Florida does rank 20th in Pass Success Rate — but their embattled head coach Billy Napier is now rotating quarterbacks Graham Mertz and D.J. Lagway. Napier looked like he was about to get fired this month before Mississippi State and Central Florida popped up on the schedule. Both of those teams are struggling (especially the Bulldogs) — and that does place a grain or two of salt on their recent passing numbers. I worry about quarterbacks finding their rhythm when they are getting rotated in and out. As it is, the Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. Florida has a good pass rush — but their defense gets burned if the rush fails. The Gators rank outside the top 100 teams in the nation in Opponent Quarterback Rating, Rush Success Rate Allowed, and Opponent Third Down Rate.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home as a favorite. 20* CFB Florida-Tennessee ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-24 |
49ers v. Seahawks +4 |
|
36-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (106) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (105). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. Expect a heavy dose of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet tonight against a Niners defense that has been vulnerable against the run. San Francisco is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense which is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the first half of the season. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road in the first half of the season. And while the Seahawks are generating 264.0 passing Yards-Per-Game, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams averaging 235 or more passing YPG — and they are without safety Talanoa Hufanga to injury who plays a critical role in their secondary.
FINAL TAKE: This is a bounce-back spot for both teams in a crucial divisional game early in the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (106) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-24 |
49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 49 |
Top |
36-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. But the Seahawks also need to run the ball to neutralize the huge advantage the Niners' defense has in this game with Nick Bosa. Seattle is without right tackles Abraham Lucas and George Fant due to injuries which means they will start Stone Forsythe once again at the position. Forsythe is last in the NFL by being responsible for 20 Quarterback Hurries and 25 QB Pressures. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense that is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy — and they will be without cornerback Tariq Woolen tonight. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home at Lumen Field. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Additionally, Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals. And while the 49ers are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play, the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco had a -2 net turnover margin in their loss to the Cardinals — and they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. The 49ers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the number at 49.5 or higher. San Francisco is only scoring 20.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Niners defense continues to play at a high level this season. They are holding their opponents to just 307.8 YPG — and they rank fifth in Defensive DVOA.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total when favored by seven points or less — and the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-24 |
Saints +5.5 v. Chiefs |
|
13-26 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. Defenses caught up a bit — and they are now dealing with several injuries on their offensive line — but this unit is in better shape with Kubiak designing the schemes and calling the plays than they were under previous offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week while outgaining them by +51 net yards. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road after losing on the road in their last game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when getting up to seven points as the underdog. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. Even with Rice healthy the majority of the time, he is averaging only 226 passing Yards-Per-Game which would be a career-low. He has only six touchdown passes — and he has already thrown five interceptions. As a team, the Chiefs have seven turnovers in their four games. They rank just 15th in the NFL by generating 5.7 Yards-Per-Play. They rank third to last in the league in Rushing Explosiveness. Without the injured Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and now Rice, there is simply no juice to this offensive attack — a problem they have had since not resigning Tyreek Hill. Mahomes ranks 25th in the league in adjusted Yards-Per-Attempt. He ranks 32nd of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks by averaging only 5.8 intended air yards per pass attempt. And his 5.4 average depth of target yards per pass attempt ranks last of all starting quarterbacks.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs are 18-31-2 ATS in their last 51 games when favored by more than three points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-24 |
Saints v. Chiefs UNDER 43 |
Top |
13-26 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. But defenses quickly caught up with those schematic changes. And they also lost center Erick McCoy to an injury which was a devastating loss. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top offensive line in the NFL after the first two games of the season. In their last two games, New Orleans has scored only 36 combined points. Quarterback Derek Carr averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first two games with five touchdown passes and just one interception. But in his last two games, he has averaged only 6.1 YPA with just one touchdown pass and two interceptions. His offensive line is really banged up now. That unit is on their third-string center with Shane Lemieux out with an injury — it will be Connor McGovern snapping to Carr tonight. Starting right guard Cesar Ruiz is also out for tonight’s game and starting left guard Lucas Patrick is questionable. Swiss army knife Taysom Hill is also out for tonight’s game with an injury. Now Carr faces Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is very familiar with him from preparing to play against him for years when he played for the Raiders. Spags has coached against Carr in 17 games — his defenses have sacked him 41 times while forcing 21 turnovers against him. This Kubiak offense for the Saints is leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara and the running game. New Orleans leads the NFL by averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game — and they are second-to-last in the league by averaging only 25.3 passing attempts per game. Now the Saints face the stout Kansas City run defense that ranks second in DVOA Run Defense using the metrics of the Football Outsiders and third in the NFL with opposing rushers averaging just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. This commitment to rushing is also keeping the opposing offense off the field for almost 33 minutes per game. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass (as opposed to the field turf at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). They have also played 7 of the 10 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. But the Chiefs’ defense remains outstanding as they are only allowing 326.8 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after beating an AFC West rival. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Kansas City has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams who are averring 5.65 or more YPP. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-24 |
Cowboys v. Steelers UNDER 43.5 |
|
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (474) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) evened their record at 2-2 with a 20-15 victory in New York against the Giants as a 5-point favorite last Thursday. Pittsburgh (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 upset loss at Indianapolis last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys only generated 293 yards of offense in their win against the Giants last week. Dallas cannot run the ball — and it is impacted everything they do. They are generating just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 75.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They ranked 14th in the NFL last season by averaging 112.9 rushing YPG. This is putting the onus on quarterback Dan Prescott to do more with his arm — but he has been much more effective when playing at home at AT&T Stadium. Last season, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes at home with 20 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while averaging 308.8 passing YPG and generating a 120.0 Quarterback Rating in eight regular season games at home. But in his nine games on the road, his completion percentage dropped to 65.9% while averaging only 227.3 passing YPG with 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions and generating a 92.4 QBR. On the road this season, the Cowboys are only averaging 279.0 YPG — and now wide receiver Brandin Cooks is injured reserve. Dallas stays on the road for the second straight week — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road after playing on the road the previous week. They have also played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Pittsburgh played their best game on offense in a losing effort last week. They are generating only 317.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 18.8 PPG. But they continue to play great defense under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are holding their opponents to just 261.8 total YPG which is resulting in just 13.3 PPG. The Steelers return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (474) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-24 |
Cowboys v. Steelers -2.5 |
Top |
20-17 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 upset loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. Dallas (2-2) evened their record at 2-2 with a 20-15 victory in New York against the Giants as a 5-point favorite last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh fell behind early and were staring at a 17-0 deficit early in the second quarter before almost coming all the way back to steal that game. The Steelers did outgain the Colts by +46 net yards with their offense generating 404 yards. Justin Fields may have played his game at quarterback for both the Steelers and in his career by completing 22 of 34 passes for 312 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He added another 55 rushing yards and scored twice his legs. Credit goes to offensive coordinator Arthur Smith who has Fields making quicker decisions in the passing game. The loss presents head coach Mike Tomlin a good opportunity to have an attentive audience this week — and that is something that he typically takes successful advantage. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have cocked the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home after a straight-up loss. They return home to play for just the second time all season after three of their first four games were on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when the Total is listed in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the NFC. Dallas beat the Giants despite losing the first down battle and getting outgained by -10 net yards. The Cowboys only generated 293 yards of offense in that game. Dallas cannot run the ball — and it is impacted everything they do. They are generating just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 75.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They ranked 14th in the NFL last season by averaging 112.9 rushing YPG. This is putting the onus on quarterback Dan Prescott to do more with his arm — but he has been much more effective when playing at home at AT&T Stadium. Last season, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes at home with 20 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while averaging 308.8 passing YPG and generating a 120.0 Quarterback Rating in eight regular season games at home. But in his nine games on the road, his completion percentage dropped to 65.9% while averaging only 227.3 passing YPG with 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions and generating a 92.4 QBR. Prescott has an 8-8 record straight-up in his last 16 games on the road — and he has an 8-13 record in his last 21 games against teams from the AFC. On the road this season, the Cowboys are only averaging 279.0 YPG. And then there is the matter of the declining Dallas defense. Everything seemed great after their opening week win against Cleveland. But since that game, the Cowboys are allowing 29.0 PPG (29th in the NFL), 397.0 YPG (last), 6.6 Yards-Per-Play (last), and have only registered 2.0. sacks. That unit will not have its best player, Micah Parsons, who is out with an ankle injury. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks is injured reserve. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas is getting outscored by -1.7 PPG and getting outgained by -24.5 net YPG this season. On the other hand, the Steelers are outscoring their opponents by +5.5 PPG and outgaining their opponents by +56.0 net YPG. Furthermore, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-24 |
Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers |
Top |
24-23 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (467) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (468). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-3) has lost two games in a row after their 42-14 upset loss against Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 30-13 victory at home against New England as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have made several teams look bad early on in this season. Arizona had lost one-possession games at Buffalo and against Detroit prior to that loss — and those were both teams that won playoff games last season. Quarterback Kyler Murray was missing tight end Trey McBride who was in the concussion protocol last week. McBride cleared the protocol this week and was a full participant in practice — but he did pop up on the injury report yesterday with a rib injury. He is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last night that he is expected to play. McBride emerged as a favorite target for Murray in the second half of last season. The Cardinals offense had been humming this season before stalling without McBride last week. The second-year pro had 14 catches from 21 targets in his first three games. Running back James Conner has been spectacular leading a ground game that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 153.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Arizona is scoring touchdowns on 72.7% of their drives inside the red zone which ranks tied for fourth in the league. They have generated 29 big plays (rushing plays of 10 or more yards or pass plays of 20 or more yards) which is the sixth most in the league. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. And while Arizona is generating 6.0 Yards-Per-Play, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP. The Niners are still banged up dealing with several injuries. Running back Christian McCaffrey is still out while tight end George Kittle and linebacker Fred Warner are questionable and may be limited if they do play. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after the first month of the season. And in their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: With only one win on the season, this is a critical game for the Cardinals — especially against an NFC West rival that embarrassed them by 16 and 19 points last season. Scouting this team had to be one of the highest priorities for head coach Jonathan Gannon in the offseason — and Arizona has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 trips to San Francisco to play the Niners. Expect a close game. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (467) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-24 |
Jets v. Vikings -2 |
|
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (452) minus the points versus the New York Jets (451). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after their 31-29 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-2) looks to rebound from their 10-9 loss at home to Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Vikings are the technical home team with this game being played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The situation says to take the Jets after their ugly loss against the Broncos where they generated only 248 yards of offense. But I am skeptical this team can just flip the switch. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and I see that as a failure of head coach Robert Saleh to refocus his team. He continues to bicker with Aaron Rodgers in the media — this time it was about Rodgers’ use of cadence which contributed to several false start penalties. Rodgers also got banged up in that game — he was sacked five times and was hit another 14 times. He has a sore knee and a hamstring injury but will try to play through those injuries. Now he faces a Vikings defense that has already resisted 16 sacks and hit the quarterback another 31 times. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams from the NFC. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after pulling off an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Weeks Five through Nine under head coach Kevin O’Connell — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after the first month of the season under Saleh. 8* NFL NY Jets-Minnesota London Calling Special with the Minnesota Vikings (452) minus the points versus the New York Jets (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-24 |
Texas Tech v. Arizona UNDER 64 |
Top |
28-22 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-41 victory against Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (3-1) comes off a 23-10 upset victory at Utah as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is easy to see why many bettors expect this game to be a shootout — but the deeper analytics suggest these respective offenses are not quite as explosive as some of their final scores indicate. The Red Raiders may be scoring 41.6 Points-Per-Game — but they rank just 42nd in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 63rd in Passing Success Rate. In their only game away from home this season, they scored just 16 points at Washington State. One of their touchdowns last week against the Bearcats came from a 51-yard interception return. Texas Tech has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. They play their second game on the road where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when getting 3.5 to 10 points as an underdog. Arizona only gained 358 yards last week in their victory against the Utes. They have scored no more than 23 points in three of their four contests this season. They rank 102nd in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Pass Success Rate. The Wildcats are settling for too many field goal attempts as they rank 91st in the FBS in Finishing Drives. But their defense has been solid as they are holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 4 straight home games Under the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats are playing their first season under new head coach Brent Brennan who took over for Jedd Fisch who left to take the Washington job. Brennan’s teams going back to his previous tenure at San Jose State have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and his teams have played 5 straight Unders when playing at home with the Total set in that 63.5-70 point range. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-24 |
Miami-FL v. California +10.5 |
|
39-38 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). THE SITUATION: California (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 14-9 loss at Florida State as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 21st. Miami (5-0) remained unbeaten with their 38-34 win against Virginia Tech as a 17.5-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal was dealing with a bevy of injuries to begin the season — but they still upset Auburn on the road despite those issues. They are getting healthier now coming off the bye week. As it is, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games off a loss on the road to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after playing on the road in their last game. Cal has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games when getting 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as a double-digit underdog under head coach Justin Wilcox. Miami trailed by a 34-24 score in the fourth quarter to the Hokies before rallying to win that game with a final touchdown with less than two minutes in the game. That Virginia Tech team entered the week with a losing record. The Hurricanes' strength of schedule does not look nearly as formidable from the view of the rearview mirror. Florida is a mess. South Florida has a losing record. Florida A&M and Ball State were easy ones. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win against an ACC rival. Fast starts are not uncommon for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after the first month of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games between Week Five and Week Nine of the season. Furthermore, head coach Mario Cristobal’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games played in October.
FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. And while the Hurricanes are outscoring their opponents by +35.4 Points-Per-Game, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-24 |
Michigan State v. Oregon UNDER 53.5 |
|
10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (311) and the Oregon Ducks (312). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 38-7 loss at home against Ohio State as a 23.5-point underdog last Saturday. Oregon (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-13 win at UCLA as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans had a difficult assignment in attempting to slow down the Buckeyes’ explosive offense last week. Sparty has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. And while they suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Despite the 31-point loss, this team is moving in the right direction once again under first-year head coach Jonathan Smith — and it starts on the defensive side of the football. The slide this program has taken from its peak seasons under head coach Mark Dantonio has been on defense. Sparty was a top-ten statistical defense in 2017 and 2018 while ranking tied for 18th in YPG Allowed in 2019 in Dantonio’s last season. Yet despite previous head coach Mel Tucker being a Nick Sagan protege who had defensive coordinating experience in the NFL and at Georgia, the defense collapsed in his tenure at East Lansing. Michigan State ranked 54th in total defense in his first season with the team before falling to 111th and 100th in his final two full seasons with the team. Only seven of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps on defense returned from last season. Smith brought in 15 transfers to bolster that side of the ball. The back seven should be capable enough, but the defensive line was the biggest question mark heading into the season. That group has held up as Michigan State ranks 18th in Opponent Rush Success Rate and 30th in Opponent Line Yards. They also rank 20th in Opponent Finishing Drives. Outside of Ohio State last week, the Spartans have not allowed more than 24 points. But the offense has struggled after failing to score more than 19 points in three of their four games against FBS opponents. These struggles are not a surprise as the offensive line had only two returning starters and was joined by just three transfers in the offseason. The unit has a mere 31 starts at the FBS level to start the season. The Spartans rank 121st in Line Yards and 81st in Rushing Success Rate. Smith did bring former four-star dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles with him from Oregon State — but he takes over an offense that ranked 128th and 125th in the nation by scoring 15.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 289.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Chiles has struggled as Pro Football Focus's 67.7 grade for his performance so far this season indicates. He has 14 turnover-worthy plays already this year. Michigan State has played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Oregon flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Bruins to just 172 yards of offense in their 21-point victory. UCLA’s only touchdown came from a 96-yard interception return. The Ducks have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. The defense has held three of their four opponents to 14 or fewer points so far this season. That unit made a big leap in head coach Dan Lanning’s second year with the program last season by ranking ninth in the FBS by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG and ranking 22nd by limiting these teams to 318.4 YPG. The former Georgia defensive coordinator’s defense allowed -10.9 fewer PPG and -61.2 YPG than in his second season as head coach. The biggest question is on the defensive line with that unit replacing four of the top five players from last season. Lanning brought in two transfers to bolster the depth, but it will be up to some of the 11 blue-chippers he has recruited in the last two seasons to step up and play key roles. On paper, the talent is there — and so far, that group is meeting the challenge. Oregon ranks 26th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate. They also rank fourth in Havoc Rate. The Ducks rank 12 in Opponent Pass Success Rate — so it will be difficult for Chiles to move the the ball with his arm. And while the Oregon offense remains explosive with Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, their 36.0 PPG scoring average and 455.3 total YPG mark are both -8.2 PPG and -76.1 YPG below last season’s numbers with Bo Nix running the offense. The Spartans are giving up only 119.0 rushing YPG — and the Ducks have played 5 straight Unders against teams not allowing more than 120 rushing YPG. Oregon has also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 PPG — and Michigan State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Spartans have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. 10* CFB Michigan State-Oregon Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (311) and the Oregon Ducks (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-24 |
Bucs v. Falcons UNDER 44 |
|
30-36 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. The Buccaneers' offense is only generating 319.0 YPG — and they are without right tackle Luke Goedeke to injury and left tackle Tristan Wirfs was limited in practice this week. As it is, the Tampa Bay rushing attack ranks 24th in DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics — and their running backs are getting hit behind the line of scrimmage at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total in that 42.5-49 point range. They have played 6 straight Unders after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in October. Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in October.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-24 |
Bucs +2.5 v. Falcons |
|
30-36 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored by up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games between Weeks Five and Nine. The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after a straight-up victory. Now after completing a two-game home stand, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games against fellow NFC rivals.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-24 |
Seahawks +4.5 v. Lions |
|
29-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (291) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road. To compound their challenge tonight, they will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. I am not terribly surprised that this team has taken a step back. For a franchise to win their first playoff game since 1991 and then just miss a shot at the Super Bowl when head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness backfired (another topic altogether), the foundation may not be nearly as firm now that linebacker Alex Anzalone is declaring this season as “Super Bowl or bust” when this is the first time in a very long time where they will be the chased rather than an afterthought. If things begin to unravel from more injuries (exposing depth problems), more game management mishaps from the biting knees guy to failures to solve the WR2, DE2, or cornerback issues (two rookies and Davis III who has been shaky since winning the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers), and just bad luck courtesy of the Regression Gods, then the wheels could fall off rather quickly. It would not be the first time flash in the pans bottom in this league. And now the injuries are beginning to mount. Besides the Ragnow situation, the Lions will be without defensive end Marcus Davenport, linebacker Derrick Barnes, and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu who are all on the injured list. To make matters worse, second-year safety Brian Branch caught an illness over the weekend and is doubtful to play tonight. Seattle contained the Dolphins offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spreads in 5 of their last 6 road games against NFC rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (291) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-24 |
Seahawks v. Lions UNDER 47 |
Top |
29-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks contained the Dolphins' offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Detroit will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top-five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. On the other hand, the Lions have improved to 11th in Defensive DVOA so far this season. Detroit played a ton of Overs last year — but they have now played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season as the trends seems to have turned against market expectations.
FINAL TAKE: A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald-operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 Prime Time games Under the Total with Goff as their starting quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-24 |
Bills v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 |
|
10-35 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the Baltimore Ravens (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-0) remains undefeated after their 47-10 victory against Jacksonville as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Baltimore (1-2) won their opening game of the season last week in a 28-25 victory at Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has made a strong statement against those pundits who thought they would be taking a step back this season after moving on from several players including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. They held the Jaguars to only 239 yards in their victory on Monday — and they are only giving up 286.7 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.0 Points-Per-Game for their opponents. But quarterback Josh Allen has struggled against the Ravens by completing only 52% of his passes against them in four games while covering only 188 passing YPG and posted a Passer Rating of 72 in those contests. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Ravens return home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games at home Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 12 of their last 17 games in the first half of the season Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the Baltimore Ravens (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-24 |
Bills v. Ravens -2 |
Top |
10-35 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (288) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (287). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-2) won their opening game of the season last week in a 28-25 victory at Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (3-0) remains undefeated after their 47-10 victory against Jacksonville as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore raced out to a 21-6 halftime lead before holding on for the victory against the Cowboys. They generated 456 yards of offense while controlling the time of possession by being on offense for 34:45 minutes of that game. While the 1-2 record so far is a disappointment, the offense has continued to develop in the second year under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio last season, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. So far this season, he is completing 65.6% of his passes — and he is generating 318 total Yards-Per-Game between his arm and his legs. The Baltimore offense ranked third last season in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. They were also seventh with 132 Explosive Plays. So far this season, they lead the NFL by generating 430.3 YPG coming from 6.7 Yards-Per-Play which also leads the league. The Ravens return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Bills are scoring 37.3 PPG, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams scoring 24 or more PPG. Buffalo has made a strong statement against those pundits who thought they would be taking a step back this season after moving on from several players including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. I was encouraged by those moves and am not surprised by their start. But this is a spot to fade them in this difficult assignment at Baltimore. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three or more games in a row. I did worry about a defense entering the season that was replacing their All-Pro safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde along with linebacker Leonard Floyd who had 10.5 sacks last year. Their run defense is a concern as they are surrendering 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and now they face the Ravens’ Derrick Henry who was acquired for games like this. The former Tennessee running back is generating 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry and has already reached the end zone four times. The Bills are dealing with injuries with two defensive starters, middle linebacker Terrel Bernard and nickelback Taron Johnson, out for this game. And quarterback Josh Allen has struggled against the Ravens by completing only 52% of his passes against them in four games while covering only 188 passing YPG and posted a Passer Rating of 72 in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +21.3 net PPG, they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (288) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-24 |
Vikings v. Packers -2.5 |
Top |
31-29 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (270) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (269). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 30-14 upset win at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 34-7 upset win at home against Houston as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay expects to get Jordan Love back this afternoon for this game — he might have been able to play last week if the challenge was greater than the struggling Titans. Love is a significant upgrade over Malik Willis under center — but the former Tennessee quarterback’s play after getting acquired by the Packers in a trade was a pleasant surprise as he led the team to two victories. One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” With even Willis thriving in his system, LaFleur deserves a tremendous amount of credit. With Willis — and now again with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, LaFleur has been fully vindicated in the Rodgers divorce — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. So far this season, Green Bay leads the NFL with seven interceptions. They held the Titans last week to just 237 yards of offense while helping them secure a +2 net turnover margin. Their momentum should carry over into this game. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games. Minnesota is one of the surprises of the league as one of the remaining undefeated teams — and they get tight end Tyler Hockensen back for this game. I’m not terribly surprised that the Vikings have started strong — I think that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah wisely did not take the bait from that 13-4 campaign two years ago to conclude that his team was close and they should pay big new contracts to quarterback Kirk Cousins and running back Dalvin Cook. But this looks like the game where the Vikings come back to earth and rather unbeaten season ends. Sam Arnold is playing efficient football under center — but Minnesota only gained 274 total yards of offense last week and they were outgained by -22 net yards. Now this team plays just their second game away from home after a relatively easy one away from home in the Meadowlands against the New York Giants. I also appreciate defensive coordinator Brian Flores who does a great job in disguising and misdirecting his schemes — and he is great at tailoring his game plans to the talent of his players. But LaFleur is certainly aware of the tactics that expose his schemes. Pre-snap motion can often reveal defensive coverages — and the Packers’ success against the Vikings on December 31st last year may be telling as Love completed 24 of 33 passes for 256 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. All the distinct weapons at Love’s disposal come in handy against Flores’ schemes. Green Bay is generating 204.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against fellow NFC North rivals.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is outscoring their opponents by +18.3 Points-Per-Game — but the Packers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (270) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-24 |
Georgia -1 v. Alabama |
|
34-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (201) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (202). THE SITUATION: Georgia (3-0) has had two weeks off to recover and prepare for this showdown after their 13-12 win at Kentucky as a 21.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago. Alabama (3-0) comes off their bye week as well after a 42-10 win at Wisconsin as a 14-point favorite on September 14th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia struggled on the road against the Wildcats two weeks ago — but I think that speaks to their early season injuries and the challenge of playing on the road in the SEC. Remember that the most impressive victory either of these teams has registered this season was the Bulldogs’ 34-3 victory against Clemson who have since dominated their opponents. While Georgia is not at full strength, they are getting healthier — and the headline is their star defensive tackle Warren Brinson is expected to return to action after playing only three snaps against Clemson this season. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their 19 games with two or more weeks to prepare under head coach Kirby Smart. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Crimson Tide dominated Wisconsin on the road -- and they benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that contest. But first-year head coach Kalen DeBour’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. I am not giving DeBour an immediate benefit of the doubt when it comes to continuing the legacy of Nick Saban with this program. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in Weeks Five through Nine. Alabama remains very talented — although DeBour had to lean on the transfer portal, so the issue of their new culture remains a question. This ain’t Saban’s team anymore. This Crimson Tide team has issues on the offensive line and at cornerback.
FINAL TAKE: This game is crucial for the Bulldogs after their 27-24 upset loss as a 5.5-point favorite to Saban’s Alabama team in the SEC Championship Game cost them the opportunity to compete in the College Football Playoff. The revenge angle is huge — and Smart’s teams at Georgia have covered the point spread in 31 of their 47 games against ranked opponents including covering the point spread in 25 of those 37 games when favored. Smart’s coaching staff and culture are proven in games like this — and while the Crimson Tide may want it, the Bulldogs need it. 10* CFB Georgia-Alabama ABC-TV Special with the Georgia Bulldogs (201) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-24 |
BYU v. Baylor -3 |
Top |
34-28 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). THE SITUATION: Baylor (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 38-31 loss at Colorado in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (4-0) remained unbeaten after their 38-9 upset win at home against Kansas State as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has been fortunate to remain unscathed this season — but this is the spot where they should be exposed by an angry Baylor team. BYU opened their season with an easy one against Southern Illinois from the FCS. They then played on the road against an SMU team that is already on their second quarterback and who were the beneficiaries of five TCU giveaways in their upset victory against them before disposing of one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far in a Wyoming team struggling to move on in the post-Craig Bohl era. And then last week, the Cougars survived getting outgained by a 367 to 241 margin in yardage to stun the Wildcats. Some fluky plays changed the tenor of that game. Trailing by a 6-3 score, BYU scooped up a Kansas State fumble to score a 30-yard defensive touchdown with 1:08 left in the half. They immediately were then given a short field by the Wildcats and scored another touchdown with 0:29 left to take a 17-6 lead. They then scored on a 90-yard punt return for a touchdown early in the third quarter to take control of the game with a 24-6 lead. If that was not enough, the Cougars were gifted another 50 yards on eight Kansas State penalties. I am not letting a deceiving final score last week sway me from my preseason thoughts on this team. After playing only five Power-Five conference opponents in 2022, I was concerned about how the Cougars would handle their move to the Big 12 with ten Power-Five opponents on their schedule going into last season. BYU started fast with a 5-2 record — but their three upset victories against Arkansas, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech were in games where they got outgained in yardage. The Regression Gods made their presence felt in the second half of the season with the Cougars surrendering 38 Points-Per-Game in their final five games — all losses — to finish the season with a 5-7 record. This team ran out of steam lacking the depth of their conference rivals. They were outgained by -141 Yards-Per-Game against Big 12 opponents. BYU ranked 118th in the FBS by generating only 309.8 YPG — and they ranked 106th by giving up 417.7 YPG. Head coach Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters in his ninth year with the program. There are reasons for optimism with 13 of the players on defense who logged in at least 100 snaps including seven who were freshman or sophomore last year. But line play is the final step that this program needs to improve to become more competitive against the (now) Power Four programs. Their offensive line was a weak link last season prompting Sitake to hire T.J. Woods from Georgia Southern to coach that unit. Junior college transfers join two returning starters on the defensive line — but they only have one player per 300 pounds in that group. The Cougars ranked 109th by allowing 177.7 rushing YPG — and their 11 sacks were the fewest in the country. BYU should be better this season — but the gap was very wide between them and the best teams in the Big 12. Now they play their second traditional Power Five/Four program in the Bears who will challenge them on both lines of scrimmage. As it is, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. And while they enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when playing during those weeks. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Junior quarterback Jake Retzlaff has thrown nine touchdown passes with only three interceptions — but those numbers look much better than his only five “big time” throws and six turnover-worthy plays. Now he faces his toughest defense this season with this Baylor team that is holding their opponents to just 283.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 16.8 Points-Per-Game. This Bears defense has significantly improved with head coach Dave Aranda taking over the play-calling duties. They rank 11th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Baylor was a prime candidate to rebound from their 3-9 campaign last season with 19 returning starters from that very young team. They lost a heartbreaker last week on the road against the Buffaloes after they missed a late game-sealing field goal which created the opportunity for quarterback Shadeur Sanders to complete a 43-yard Hail Mary pass to force overtime on the final play in regulation. A botched fumble on the one-yard line in overtime led to them losing the game. If there was a silver lining, it was the play of junior quarterback Sawyer Robertson who completed 11 of 21 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns while adding another touchdown and 82 yards on the ground. The former Mississippi State transfer is a better fit to execute the quick passing game Baylor wants to deploy than previous starter Dequan Finn who may lack the requisite passing skills after transferring from Toledo. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 37 or more points. And in their last 16 games at home as the favorite, they have covered the point spread in 10 of those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-24 |
Cowboys v. Giants +5.5 |
|
20-15 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: New York (1-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 21-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 28-25 loss at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: My initial reaction was breaking this game down was to suspect it was a “get-right” game for the Cowboys after dropping two games in a row. Now they face a New York team that they have beaten in 12 of their last 13 contests — including two romps last year by 49-17 and 40-0 scores. And then I realized that my sentiment was exactly the same as most bettors in this spot — so I conducted a major rethink. Upon closer analysis, Dallas traveling to New York to face a team that usually dominates may be the worst thing for this franchise that may be experiencing an existential crisis. Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have mastered the art of the Flat Track Bully. They have gone 12-5 in the regular season for three straight seasons. Last year, they outscored their opponents by +11.4 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +71.9 net Yards-Per-Game. Yet they have lost six of their nine games in the postseason in the last 11 seasons after a humiliating 48-32 loss at home to Green Bay in the NFC Wildcard round that seemed to serve as an indictment for every member of the organization. Yet rather than cleaning house, owner/president/general manager/podcaster Jerry Jones translated his initial “all-in” mantra to only signing three free agents while losing five starters to the market. After giving up 432 yards of offense and 44 points two weeks ago in New Orleans in a 25-point loss, the Cowboys surrendered 456 total yards and another 28 points last week against the Ravens. Now, on a short week, the general expectation that they will simply flip the switch? The concerns about the offense are troubling. Dallas does not have a reliable lead running back with Rico Dowdle suddenly their main rusher. They brought back an over-the-hill Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason — but his strengths are in pass blocking and short-yardage at this stage of his career. Change-of-pace back Deuce Vaughn has not developed. The Cowboys are third to the bottom in the league by both rushing for only 73.7 Yards-Per-Game and averaging just 20.7 rush attempts per game. Dowdle is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The offensive line is no longer the strength for this team, which it once was after losing two starters in the offseason. Rookie Tyler Guyton has replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle — but he has already allowed three pressures in his first three games in the NFL. This spells trouble for quarterback Dak Prescott who already tends to play better at home. Perhaps it is the rhythm he finds with his “here we go” cadence. Last year in eight regular season games at home, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes while averaging 308.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions helped him register a 120.0 Quarterback Rating. But in his nine starts on the road last regular season, he only completed 65.4% of his passes while averaging 65.4% of his passes — and he had 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions while posting a 92.4 QBR. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road after playing their previous game at home. New York flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Browns to 217 total yards. The Giants defense is much better this season after acquiring defensive end Brian Burns from Carolina in the offseason. He already has 15 pressures which ranks ninth in the NFL. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games after a straight-up win on the road. And after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after playing their last two games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have been reliable underdogs under head coach Brian Daboll — they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5. points while only losing those games, straight-up, by -1.0 Points-Per-Game. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-24 |
Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45 |
Top |
20-15 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 28-25 loss at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 21-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 432 yards of offense and 44 points two weeks ago in New Orleans, the Cowboys surrendered 456 total yards and another 28 points last week against the Ravens. First-year defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer needs to get this defense on the same page after the early reviews were great when they held Cleveland to just 230 yards and 17 points in their opener. Getting an appearance from the Regression Gods regarding their Red Zone defense will help immensely. Dallas’ opponents have scored touchdowns on 90% of their trips inside their 20-yard line this season. The NFL average tends to be in the 55% range regarding touchdown proficiency once in the Red Zone. The Browns had the worst Red Zone defense last season with opponents scoring touchdowns in 71% of their trips inside the Cowboys’ 20-yard line — so that 90% clip is, thankfully for Dallas fans, unsustainable. Dallas ranked fifth in the league by only giving up 299.7 total Yards-Per-Game last season — and they ranked fifth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Facing the new Saints offense that is leaning heavily into pre-snap motion and play-action passes in Week Two before the always difficult task for NFC teams in playing Lamar Jackson who presents such a unique threat with his legs probably explains the slow start on that side of the ball. As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The concerns about the offense are more troubling. Dallas does not have a reliable lead running back with Rico Dowdle suddenly their main rusher. They brought back an over-the-hill Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason — but his strengths are in pass blocking and short-yardage at this stage of his career. Change-of-pace back Deuce Vaughn has not developed. The Cowboys are third to the bottom in the league by both rushing for only 73.7 Yards-Per-Game and averaging just 20.7 rush attempts per game. Dowdle is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The offensive line is no longer the strength of this team, which it once was after losing two starters in the offseason. Rookie Tyler Guyton has replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle — but he has already allowed three pressures in his first three games in the NFL. This spells trouble for quarterback Dak Prescott who already tends to play better at home. Perhaps it is the rhythm he finds with his “here we go” cadence. Last year in eight regular season games at home, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes while averaging 308.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions helped him register a 120.0 Quarterback Rating. But in his nine starts on the road last regular season, he only completed 65.4% of his passes while averaging 65.4% of his passes — and he had 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions while posting a 92.4 QBR. New York flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Browns to 217 total yards. The Giants' defense is much better this season after acquiring defensive end Brian Burns from Carolina in the offseason. He already has 15 pressures which ranks ninth in the NFL. New York has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Quarterback Daniel Jones posted a Passer Rating of 110 last week — but let’s not read too much into that since Pro Football Focus assigned him the third worst grade last week ahead of just Anthony Richardson and Skylar Thompson. Jones is another QB with disparate home-road splits — but Jones tends to play better away from the New York fans at MetLife Stadium. In his career 32 games on the road, Jones has a 91.2 QBR while completing 64.4% of his passes and averaging 213.2 passing YPG — and he has 39 touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions. But in his 31 career games at home, his QBR drops to 78.6 with a 63.6% completion percentage and a 202.9 passing YPG mark — and he has thrown 27 touchdown passes while throwing 28 picks.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-24 |
Commanders +8.5 v. Bengals |
|
38-33 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (479) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 after their 21-18 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 loss at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: I am not terribly surprised that the Bengals have started slow this season. At first glance when I conducted my offseason deep dive on the team, I wanted to consider them on the short list of teams to overtake Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was slowed by a calf injury suffered early in last year’s training camp that helps explain Cincinnati’s 1-3 start where they generated only 12.3 Points-Per-Game. Burrow only completed 576% of his passes for 728 yards during that stretch. But after recovering, he completed 72.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in his next seven games before suffering his season-ending wrist injury. I remained concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while running back Joe Mixon was probably past his prime, did the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? Then there was the defense that ranked 31st in the league by allowing 374.6 Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, losing safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell took away too much leadership (and play-calling) for an inexperienced defensive backfield that was starting rookies or second-year players by the end of the season. Covering for their mistakes could explain the down seasons for linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. After committing only 76 missed tackles in 2022-23, the Bengals missed 124 tackles last year, the second-highest jump in the NFL. And while the Bengals faced 11 of 17 teams that ranked in the top 12 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, they still got outscored by 1.1 PPG and outgained by -55.7 net YPG. Can they count on a +10 net turnover margin again? Will team cohesion take a hit with wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins along with defensive end Trey Hendrickson all wanting to renegotiate their contract for new deals? If the young defensive players take the next step, then Cincinnati can certainly compete for a Super Bowl — assuming Burrow fully recovers. I concluded my thoughts on this team by writing: “But the seeds are certainly in place for why this team once again sputters.” Two games into the season with some hindsight, this team does appear to be not on the same page. The chemistry appears off. Granted, Tee Higgins being out with an injury in the first two games has not helped — and they get him back tonight. But I don’t think his return simply allows this offense to flip the switch. It looks like Burrow missed wide receiver Tyler Boyd who played an important role in their three-headed monster at wide receiver in his career at Cincinnati. The ground game has not been the same without Mixon. As it is, the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the opening month of the season. The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. After the team traded away defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, the writing was on the wall and the remaining players were listless in some blowout losses. So the Washington defense ranking last by allowing 30.5 Points-Per-Game, 388.9 total Yards-Per-Game, and 262.2 Passing YPG should probably be taken with a grain of salt. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator — and now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line. Daniels is a legitimate dual-threat QB who could jumpstart this offense like C.J. Stroud last year. In his first two games in the NFL, he is completing 75% of his passes — and, perhaps more impressively, he has completions to eight different receivers. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team. They could not find the end zone last week — and if Malik Nabors simply holds on to a fourth down pass from Daniel Jones, the Giants may have pulled the upset (and we cover the darn spread in that) — but they did outgain New York by +121 net yards while generating 425 yards of offense. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are desperate to not drop to 0-3 — but their winning the game is one thing, them covering the point spread is quite another. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points under head coach Zac Taylor. Look for the Commanders to keep this one closer than expected. 10* NFL Washington-Cincinnati ABC-TV Special with the Washington Commanders (479) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-24 |
Commanders v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 |
|
38-33 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 after their 21-18 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 loss at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders held the Giants to just 304 yards of offense last week in their three-point victory. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn seems to have already made his presence known as the new head coach for this team. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team. But the offense could not find the end zone last week as they settled for seven field goals to pull out that game. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has not thrown a touchdown pass yet. The Commanders have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 3 of their 4 games on the road Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and his teams as a head coach have played 4 of their 6 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Cincinnati only gained 320 yards last week against the Chiefs after only generating 224 yards in their opening game against New England. Granted, Tee Higgins being out with an injury in the first two games has not helped — and they get him back tonight. But I don’t think his return simply allows this offense to flip the switch. It looks like Burrow missed wide receiver Tyler Boyd who played an important role in their three-headed monster at wide receiver in his career at Cincinnati. The ground game has not been the same without running back Joe Mixon. I remained concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? The Bengals have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing in September. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-24 |
Jaguars +6 v. Bills |
Top |
10-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (477) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (478). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 18-13 upset loss at home to Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 31-10 upset loss at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on September 12th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville will be playing with full desperation tonight to do everything they can to avoid starting the season at 0-3 which then places their chances of making the playoffs at very low odds according to the historical numbers. There were seven teams with 0-2 records facing that prospect yesterday. Six of those seven teams won their games — Indianapolis as a home favorite were the only team to fall to 0-3. Denver, the New York Giants, Carolina, Baltimore, and the Los Angeles Rams all pulled off upsets wins to avoid going 0-3 — and all but the Rams were playing on the road (and there were probably more San Francisco fans at SoFi Stadium yesterday). I’ll confess that I am not bullish on this Jaguars team this season. In my preseason deep dive on them, I concluded that general manager Trent Baalke has been lazy in his roster construction — seven of his nine draft picks last April were from the SEC and he has only drafted one non-Power Five conference player in his 22 selections in the last two seasons. I have questions about quarterback Trevor Lawrence who led the NFL with 21 turnovers while struggling in the second half of the season. So far this year, he is completing only 51% of his passes. But there are silver linings for tonight’s game. Lawrence has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception in his NFL career when playing in prime-time. While his accuracy numbers are down, the Jaguars offense is generating big plays — they lead the league with 12 plays that have churned out 20 or more yards from scrimmage. Lawrence played the second half of last season gutting through several injuries — so not being close to full strength could explain his second-half struggles last season. Jacksonville has lost to two playoff teams to start the season. Their 20-17 loss at Miami was a nail-biter that they could have pulled out. They had a 17-7 lead at halftime and a 17-14 lead with less than five minutes to go in the fourth quarter before surrendering two late field goals to blow that game. Against the Browns last week, they outgained Cleveland by 323 to 297 margin in yards. They were down 16-3 before rallying to make it 16-13 midway through the fourth quarterback. Maybe the story of this team is that they will find ways to lose games all season — but taking them as an underdog may be profitable. I expect them to play their best game of the season tonight. They did rank 10th in total DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders last season. Defensive end Travon Walker is developing into a force, even if the team should have drafted Adrian Hutchinson as the number one pick in the draft three years ago. Jacksonville has been reliable on the road by covering the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against fellow AFC rivals. Regarding Buffalo, I like this team and am intrigued by their commitment to running the football more than when Ken Dorsey was their offensive coordinator. We were on the Bills last week against the Dolphins — and they have now won nine of their 11 games with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. For the record, they were helped by a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they were outgained by -104 net yards. This may be a bit of a letdown spot for them tonight. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a win against an AFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point. The Bills defense will be missing two starters on defense tonight with nickleback Taron Johnson and middle linebacker Terrel Bernard both dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: We bet numbers rather than teams — and I like the number with the Jaguars tonight given the conundrum they now find themselves under. Jacksonville usually plays their best football early in the year as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road in the first half of the season. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (477) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-24 |
Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 46.5 |
|
22-17 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 win against Cincinnati as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) won their first game of the season on Monday with their 22-21 upset win at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs' offense has yet to find midseason form as they only gained 286 yards from 19 first downs last week against the Bengals. But Patrick Mahomes has gotten very comfortable playing in lower-scoring games given the strength of the Kansas City defense. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. And while a revenge-motivated Ravens team led by Lamar Jackson moved the ball against them two weeks ago, they held the Bengals to just 320 total yards last week. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. It took some spectacular game mismanagement from Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni to even give the Falcons the opportunity to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. But after Sirianni bypassed running the ball on third down to continue to burn time off the clock and set up a fourth down Push-Tush with Jalen Hurts icing the game with a first down, he dialed up a pass play and re-learned the hard lesson that when you pass the ball, three things can happen — and two are bad. That set up Kirk Cousins to orchestrate his best drive yet in a Falcons uniform to lead the offense for a game-winning touchdown — but we are all left wondering what would have happened if defensive coordinator Vic Fangio would have sent pressure rather than playing soft coverage with his quarters pass coverage with two high safety engaging in the dreaded “prevent” defense. Cousins ended up with 20 completions from his 29 passes for 241 passing yards and two touchdown passes — but that solid stat line looks much different if he was not gifted the opportunity to complete 5 of 6 passes for 70 yards and a TD on that final drive. The eye-test from Monday observed a struggling Falcons offense that only gained 315 yards before that final drive. Tight end Kyle Pitts remains an afterthought. Robinson’s play-calling is a work in progress. We are left to wonder why he had Cousins in shotgun in the opening week against Pittsburgh before reverting back to him under center last week. Cousins' mobility remains limited. And now here comes Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who loves to send pressure — and he knows Cousins well from his time as the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants when Cousins entered the league with Washington. In Spags’ eight games against Cousins, his defense has sacked him eight times and limited him to 12 touchdown passes while picking off eight of his passes. The Steelers demonstrated the limitations this offense will face if Cousins is under duress. But the under-appreciated strength of this Atlanta team may be their defense that ranked 11th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 321.1 total Yards-Per-Game — and they added veteran pass rusher Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons in August. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points — and the Chiefs have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored including five of their last eight games on the road when not laying more than seven points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-24 |
Chiefs -2.5 v. Falcons |
Top |
22-17 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (475) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 win against Cincinnati as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) won their first game of the season on Monday with their 22-21 upset win at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: It took some spectacular game mismanagement from Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni to even give the Falcons the opportunity to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. But after Sirianni bypassed running the ball on third down to continue to burn time off the clock and set up a fourth down Push-Tush with Jalen Hurts icing the game with a first down, he dialed up a pass play and re-learned the hard lesson that when you pass the ball, three things can happen — and two are bad. That set up Kirk Cousins to orchestrate his best drive yet in a Falcons uniform to lead the offense for a game-winning touchdown — but we are all left wondering what would have happened if defensive coordinator Vic Fangio would have sent pressure rather than playing soft coverage with his quarters pass coverage with two high safety engaging in the dreaded “prevent” defense. Cousins ended up with 20 completions from his 29 passes for 241 passing yards and two touchdown passes — but that solid stat line looks much different if he was not gifted the opportunity to complete 5 of 6 passes for 70 yards and a TD on that final drive. So now the narrative is that the Falcons look dangerous and Cousins (much like Aaron Rodgers on Thursday) appears to be regaining his form recovering from his season-ending torn ACL last year. But if Atlanta did not steal that game on Monday, they would be 0-2 with serious questions regarding offensive coordinator Zac Robinson along with Cousins' health — and the calls to turn to rookie Michael Penix would already be starting with their season on the line to avoid that hypothetical 0-3 start. The eye-test from Monday observed a struggling Falcons offense that only gained 315 yards before that final drive. Tight end Kyle Pitts remains an afterthought. Robinson’s play-calling is a work in progress. We are left to wonder why he had Cousins in shotgun in the opening week against Pittsburgh before reverting back to him under center last week. Cousins' mobility remains limited. And now here comes Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who loves to send pressure — and he knows Cousins well from his time as the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants when Cousins entered the league with Washington. In Spags’ eight games against Cousins, his defense has sacked him eight times and limited him to 12 touchdown passes while picking off eight of his passes. The Steelers demonstrated the limitations this offense will face if Cousins is under duress. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Kansas City may be one Bengals’ point and one Isaiah Likely toe away from being 0-2 this season — but instead, the two-time defending champions are unbeaten this year despite not playing close to their best game yet. They certainly deserve credit for outlasting two of the best teams in the NFL with their victories against Baltimore and then a desperate Cincinnati team last week. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road. They proved their mettle and resolve on the road in the postseason last year with consecutive playoff wins against Buffalo and Baltimore. They will be without running back Isiah Pacheco tonight — but they have solid options in rookie Carson Steele and the return of third-down back Samaji Perine who they picked up again off waivers after Denver released him. Steele was explosive in the preseason for the Chiefs after being signed as an undrafted free agent from UCLA where he transferred to after playing at Toledo — he may very well be yet another diamond in the rough this organization discovered like Pacheco who they drafted in the sixth round. Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full-rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons by beating San Francisco in overtime by a 25-22 score. Now Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Spagnuolo, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. And while a revenge-motivated Ravens team led by Lamar Jackson moved the ball against them two weeks ago, they held the Bengals to just 320 total yards last week. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. Rice is developing into Mahomes’ favorite option with 12 receptions and 178 receiving yards so far this season.
FINAL TAKE: Mahomes has thrown three interceptions so far this season — but that is something he should reign in moving forward, especially against a suspect Falcons defense that had blown tackle after blown tackle in their first two games. Mahomes has a 17-4 record in September along with a 22-6 mark against the NFC — and while those numbers are straight-up rather than against-the-spread, they should offer confidence that he will, once again, lead his team to victory. Look for the Chiefs to play their cleanest game of the season without the comfort of a game in Arrowhead Stadium. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Kansas City Chiefs (475) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-24 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
24-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 upset loss at Minnesota as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 41-10 loss at Arizona as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Francisco is likely missing three important pieces to their dynamic offense with running back Christian McCaffrey on the injured list, wide receiver Deebo Samuel declared out for this game, and tight end George Kittle listed as doubtful. That takes away three of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s “jokers” where he can comfortably line them up in multiple offensive positions to stress the defense. Shanahan still has wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and fullback Kyle Juszczyk — but they are not as formidable without those other three versatile players on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy has already taken eight sacks this season. Expect a game plan similar to what the 49ers deployed against the New York Jets when they rushed for 180 yards — this game should be about smash-mouth football for the Niners after they gave up 403 yards to the Vikings last week. This remains a good 49ers defense that is only allowing 334.5 Yards-Per-Game this season. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored by seven points or less. Los Angeles is decimated with injuries. With the offensive line depleted and quarterback Matthew Stafford missing his top two wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams are likely to focus on running the ball behind Kyren Robinson and rookie Blake Corum to protect the offensive line (run blocking is easier to execute) and their veteran quarterback. The injuries have left this Los Angeles offense punchless — they are generating only 316.0 YPG this season which is resulting in 15.0 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to an NFC West rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-24 |
Toledo v. Western Kentucky +2.5 |
|
21-26 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (410) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (409). Western Kentucky (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 49-21 victory at Middle Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Toledo (3-0) continued their unbeaten season last week with their 41-17 upset victory at Mississippi State as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky generated 631 yards of offense to overwhelm the Blue Raiders. Junior quarterback T.J. Finley got injured in that game — but that opens up space for redshirt sophomore quarterback Caden Veltkamp to run the offense after being the hero for the team in last year’s Famous Toastery Bowl. Veltkamp completed 27 of 30 passes last week for 398 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played in September. Toledo dominated what turned out to be a hapless Bulldogs team (mental note: lesson learned) last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win by 17 or more points. And in their last 6 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games. This is a tough situational spot for the Rockets. Not only are they playing their second straight game on the road against a non-conference, but they have their revenge opportunity next week against Miami (OH) who beat them in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game last season. Quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for 285 yards last week — but he has yet to register a pass that qualifies as a “Big Time Throw” by Pro Football Focus this season. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in September.
FINAL TAKE: In their 21 games under head coach Tyson Helton as a single-digit favorite, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 16 of those contests by an average of +5.4 points versus the spread. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (410) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (409). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-24 |
Arizona State v. Texas Tech -4 |
|
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (384) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (383). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (2-1) rebounded from their 21-point loss at Washington State two weeks ago with a 66-21 throttling of North Texas as an 11-point home favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (3-0) remained unbeaten so far this season with their 31-28 upset win at Texas State as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas Tech dominated the Mean Green last week by generating 586 yards of offense and outgaining them by +233 net yards. One of the touchdowns they allowed was from a 44-yard interception by the North Texas defense. That pick-six came from backup quarterback Cameran Brown. Junior quarterback Behren Morton is a two-year starter leading this offense who has already thrown for 973 yards in three games with 10 touchdown passes. He completed 15 of 19 passes last week for 273 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The final score in the loss on the road to the Cougars two weeks ago was a bit deceptive since they won the yardage battle by +75 net yards. A -3 net turnover margin played a big role in that setback as well as fourth down proficiency. Texas Tech failed to convert in four of their five fourth down attempts in that game while Washington State was successful on two of their three fourth down attempts to help swing the game in their favor. The Red Raiders have been banged up this season. Running back Tahj Brooks did not suit up against the Cougars — and they lost four starters to injury during that game including the entire left side of the offensive line. Brooks returned last week to rush for 109 yards with a touchdown. While not back to 100%, Texas Tech is getting back injured players on both sides of the ball. Arizona State survived the Bobcats last week despite getting outgained by -53 net yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have a +6 net turnover margin so far this season. The Sun Devils have scored three defensive touchdowns this year — and they have converted on five of their six fourth down attempts. Now Arizona State stays on the road for the second straight week — and they may be due for an appearance from the Regression Gods. The Sun Devils suffered through their second-straight 3-9 campaign last year, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt has been their starting quarterback this season. While he offers a dual threat with his legs, he ranks 107th in the nation in Expected Points Added per dropback. Cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing so with many new players. I expected the Sun Devils to be much better — albeit that would not necessarily mean translate into more victories or point spread covers. About everything has gone right for this team to win and cover the point spread in their first three games, but their formula for success is unsustainable. Arizona State has still failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech is 22-11-1 ATS in their 34 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Arizona State-Texas Tech FS1-TV Special with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (384) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-24 |
Memphis v. Navy +10 |
Top |
44-56 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) has won their opening three games of the season after their 20-12 upset victory at Florida State as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. Navy (2-0) returns to the field after beating Temple by a 38-11 score two weeks ago as an 11.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers dominated time of possession last week while enjoying a +2 net turnover margin in pulling off the signature victory against the Seminoles. Florida State is reeling amidst a start to the season that has exposed the inattention to recruiting under head coach Mike Norvell. In hindsight, the talent level in Tallahassee is not nearly the same as it was last season after losing ten players in the NFL including six in the first three rounds. The Seminoles have become overly dependent on the transfer portal which is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Norvell seems to have missed at quarterback after bringing in former Clemson and then Oregon State’s D.J. Uigalelei. The Tigers come off their best season under head coach Ryan Silverfield in his four seasons with the program after a 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 36-26 victory against Iowa State at home in the Liberty Bowl. With 17 starters back led by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, Memphis was already a trendy pick to represent the Group of Five programs in the expanded College Football Playoffs — and now those playoff expectations fall firmly on their shoulders. Notre Dame felt similar pressure after their beating Texas A&M in their opening game — and they got upset the next week despite being nearly a four-touchdown favorite. The Tigers are just one of eight FBS programs that have been bowl-eligible for at least ten straight seasons. But while the offense was prolific with Henigan under center — ranking 14th in the nation generating 458.5 total Yards-Per-Game, the defense allowed too many big plays en route to surrendering 423.2 YPG, ranking 111th in the nation. A new NIL deal with FedEx helped Henigan become very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 29 players featuring 11 who were previous starters at FBS programs along with another five from the junior college ranks. Nine transfers add depth to the offense headlined by senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Silverfield added another 20 transfers to help improve the defense while promoting linebackers coach Jordan Hawkins to defensive coordinator to address the woes on that side of the ball. But with all these new additions to what had been a stable program, there is the question regarding the chemistry between the old guard and new players with everyone dealing with higher expectations. Despite going 6-2 in conference play last year, the Tigers got outscored by American Athletic Conference opponents by -6.0 YPG. I have worried about the underlying culture of this program under Silverfield in the past. They began last season having lost eight of their last ten games decided by one-scoring possession before winning four of their six games decided by a touchdown or less last year. Perhaps, as the analytics community preaches, the Regression Gods were simply due to even out that record in games decided by one scoring possession. On the other hand, if losing close games under Silverfield in the past had anything to do with underlying positive culture and cohesion issues, then the influx of all these new players and the expectations surrounding it could become a volatile mix that has not even played in an American Athletic Conference Championship Game in the Silverfield era. This is a very challenging spot for the Tigers staying on the road for a second week on the road against a team running a gimmicky new offense. It is highly doubtful that Silverfield and his coaching staff had anything other than Florida State on their minds last week. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on field turf. So far, so good for Navy after following up their victory against Bucknell with a dominant victory against the Owls in conference play. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at home. Navy has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home after a win by 17 or more points. The Midshipmen have been one of the hardest-hit programs given events outside of their control the last few seasons. Spring practices are crucial to the service academies since talent development is vital to replace what are typically starting lineups that feature seniors. Conducting zero practices in the spring of 2020 because of COVID coming off an 11-2 campaign set this program back. Even during their 2020 fall season, they experienced a 28-day midseason hiatus because of the ongoing pandemic that fall which completely disrupted their progress. The new era of the transfer portal or even the waived season of eligibility in 2020 are two areas that service academy programs can not utilize given the military service obligations. And then the NCAA’s cut block rule change two years ago took away one of the secret advantages for this program which was their spread triple option attack. First-year head coach Brian Newberry hired former Kennesaw State offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut to modernize the offense with more passing and they ditched the triple option. However, the experiment failed as Navy only generated 300.3 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 123rd and 122nd in the FBS. Newberry did not retain Chestnut and replaced him with Mercer head coach Drew Cronic who led the Tigers to the FCS playoffs last season. Cronic’s specialty is a hybrid wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass — the plan in Annapolis is to return to the triple-option but with spread principles. With an extra week to prepare for this game, expect many new schemes, formations, and plays from Cronic in what is this team’s biggest game of the season so far this year. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball with the defense also seeing six reserves on defense who got plenty of action in the two-deep last year. The Midshipmen’s defense remained the strength of the team last season by ranking 44th in the nation by allowing just 353.7 total YPG. There is stability on that side of the ball after Newberry had been the defensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over as head coach. Navy has had four straight losing seasons — and that 2019 season with 11 wins is their only winning season in the last six seasons. But their five victories last year were the most they have had since that 2019 campaign — so Newberry may have this program moving in the right direction again. Often the Midshipmen go only as far as their quarterback — and they may have found a good one in junior Blake Horvath who only played in one game last year before suffering a season-ending injury. Horvath took control of the starting job in the spring and held off sophomore Braxton Woodson in the fall. He ran for 112 yards with three touchdowns last week on 15 carries. But the exciting dynamic for this program is his passing threat as he completed 5 of 9 passes for 112 yards with a touchdown pass as well. Against Bucknell in their opening game, Horvath completed 7 of 12 passes for 168 yards with another two touchdown passes.
FINAL TAKE: Navy has lost five straight games to the Tigers — so snapping that losing streak would go a long way to re-establish this program. But they will come into this game with confidence after only losing 28-24 at Memphis as an 11.5-point underdog last September 14th. The Midshipmen were able to run the ball for 299 yards on 50 carries for a 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry average in that game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 meetings against the Tigers. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-24 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 38.5 |
|
3-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New England has continuity and cohesion on defense with a unit that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Bill Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 PPG. The offense is trying to put the defense in a position to succeed by running the football, limiting turnovers, and burning time off the clock. The Patriots are averaging 37.5 rushing attempts per game which has resulted them in being on offense for just under 35 minutes per game. This is a recipe for lower-scoring games. New England has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. But the Patriots are only generating 300.0 total Yards-Per-Game with this approach which is resulting in just 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Aaron Rodgers is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The Jets' defense remains good after holding the Titans last week to just 300 yards. They lead the NFL with a pressure rate of 44% against opponent dropbacks — and that could spell trouble for the Patriots’ Jacoby Brissett. New England ranks third-to-last in the league by allowing a pressure rate on 24% of their dropbacks — and they will be without left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow for tonight’s game. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home after a victory. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals — and they have played 4 straight Unders against the Patriots. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-24 |
Patriots +6.5 v. Jets |
Top |
3-24 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: After 24 years, the Patriots move on to Year One of the post-Bill Belichick era after they bottomed out with a 4-13 record last season. The offense stagnated without Tom Brady under center — they tied for last in the league by scoring only 13.9 Points-Per-Game. Why did this happen? (1) Poor coaching? (2) Mac Jones was not the answer at quarterback? (3) Lack of talent at wide receiver? I tend to think the blame on the coaching staff — even when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were moonlighting as offensive coaches two years ago — was overblown. In hindsight, Jones looks like a head case. Certainly, it is fair to say that Belichick did not put him in a position to succeed with skill position talent — especially at wide receiver. Jones’ lack of mobility compounded that problem. Jones is gone — and rookie Drake May is the future at quarterback. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator — and with the hiring of special assistant Ben McAdoo, the offense adopted the West Coast principles of the Green Bay offense before Matt LaFleur arrived. McAdoo was the previous Packers' offensive coordinator with Van Pelt the Quarterbacks Coach. Van Pelt is deploying a run-first approach that will set up play-action passes. He has emphasized more wide zone run schemes than this offense had used previously — and this seems to have unlocked running back Rhamondre Stevenson who has rushed for 201 yards so far this season. Stevenson ranks eighth in the NFL for rushers with at least 20 carries by generating +3.09 yards after contact — and now he faces a Jets’ defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed after contact against opposing rushers. The Patriots added Antonio Gibson in the offseason as a change of pace back — and he rushed for 96 yards from 11 carries last week. Pelt is also committing to the run with his personnel choices as they have deployed six or more offensive linemen 26 times this season while running the ball in 25 of those occasions — that leads the league. The offensive line is solid but banged up for this game — but there is depth and run-blocking is easier than pass-blocking. The team also signed Jacoby Brissett as a veteran placeholder at QB who enjoyed his best professional season in 2022 under Van Pelt’s guidance. He has not thrown an interception this season (knock on wood …). New England has continuity and cohesion on the other side of the ball with a defense that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 Points-Per-Game. Better play at quarterback from a year ago with at least some upgrade at the skill positions along with another tough defense could have the Patriots fighting for a playoff spot — remember, they made the playoffs three years ago and were still mathematically alive going into Week 17 two seasons ago. New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after a loss at home. They have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. In last year’s offseason in the first year with Aaron Rodgers under center, I questioned how the locker room would deal with all the distractions that have become part of the package of having the former MVP at quarterback. General manager Joe Douglass and head coach Robert Saleh were on the hot seat and seemingly going all-in on the Rodgers gamble. I also wondered if the Rodgers reconnection with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator during some of his best seasons in Green Bay, would be fruitful or was Hackett simply his “yes man” who got exposed as a coach out of his element in his one season as the Denver head coach. A year later, we lack answers to those questions since Rodgers lasted only four snaps before he suffered his season-ending Achilles injury. Douglass, Saleh, and even Hackett were given mulligans after that injury on Monday Night Football. But now the seats are even hotter with everything banking on Rodgers successfully recovering from a serious leg injury at 40 years old. And the distractions keep marching on. Rodgers kept teasing that his recovery was ahead of schedule and that he could make a near-miraculous return late in the season. While less than a fourth-month recovery from a torn Achilles is rare, Rodgers claimed his innovative training and healing techniques (including listening to dolphin sounds) would have him ready. But inevitably in a scene reminiscent of NBA players begging to “hold me back” from on-the-court fights that no one ever planned to initiate, Rodgers’ services were never required in late December with the Jets limping to another 7-10 record. Since then, some of Rodgers’ antics include a few days where he was being considered to be the Vice Presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy’s vanity presidential bid before later blowing off mandatory training camp sessions for his “previously scheduled” trip to Egypt. It is hard not to consider Rodgers simply a carnival barker at this point of his career when he keeps on sounding like a carnival barker. He is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The pressure cooker is tight for teams that are in Super Bowl or bust mode — especially ones that have not even made the playoffs since 2010. This team knows it is under the national spotlight tonight for Thursday Night Football. A big concern is that the defense has not played as well as last season. They rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 5.4 Yards-Per-Play. They also lost defensive end Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending Achilles injury last week. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings against the Jets. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-24 |
Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 48.5 |
|
22-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 18-10 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 34-29 win against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite in Brazil last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Falcons' defense for the loss last week — they held the Steelers to just 270 yards of offense despite being on the field for 35:36 minutes of that game. The Falcons have a good defense that ranked 12th in the NFL in Expected Points Allowed per Play and fifth in Opponent Success Rate against the Pass — and they added two quality veterans last month by trading for defensive end Matthew Judon and strong safety Justin Simmons. The problem for Atlanta was their sluggish offense which only gained 226 yards of offense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins only completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards — and he looked limited with his mobility in his return from his Achilles injury last season. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49-point range, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Philadelphia survived their game in Brazil against the Packers despite a -2 net turnover margin — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Head coach Nick Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown (and, BTW, he is out for tonight’s game with an injury) or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high — and he threw two more picks against Green Bay. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? They failed to get a first down on their lone push-tush last week.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football — and the Falcons have played 9 straight Unders when playing in Prime-Time. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-24 |
Falcons +6.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
22-21 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (291) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 18-10 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 34-29 win against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite in Brazil last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: I did not like the decision to sign Kirk Cousins as a free agent and then draft Michael Penix in the first round because of the opportunity costs. Sacrificing either a first round pick for a Cousins-led team or $100 million in guaranteed money against the salary cap with Penix under center limits the potential ceiling regarding how far this team can go in the next two seasons. But moves were fine if just looking at them in a vacuum. It was always unreasonable to expect Cousins to be at peak play in his first game back from his Achilles injury while adjusting to a new system. And facing a stout Steelers defense led by T.J. Watt was as bad an opening matchup as could have been drawn up. Cousins should play better this week — especially since the Eagles lack a pass rusher who is near the level of of Watt. Head coach Raheem Morris should have this team ready to compete tonight. His previous teams when he was the head coach for Tampa Bay covered the point spread in 10 of their 16 games after a loss at home — and they covered the point spread in all 4 of their games after an upset loss. Additionally, Morris’ teams have covered the point spread in 17 of their 28 games on the road as an underdog. The Falcons have a good defense that ranked 12th in the NFL in Expected Points Allowed per Play and fifth in Opponent Success Rate against the Pass — and they added two quality veterans last month by trading for defensive end Matthew Judon and strong safety Justin Simmons. Those were moves that would only be made by general manager Terry Fontenot if the coaching staff was pleased with the progress of Cousins in training camp. Philadelphia got outgained last week by four yards in their victory against the Packers — and they somehow won that game despite a -2 net turnover margin. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover. Of note in that game last week was that the Philly defense surrendered 414 total yards of offense. My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season; They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox retired and linebacker Hassan Reddick was traded to the New York Jets. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown (and, BTW, he is out for tonight’s game with an injury) or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high — and he threw two more against the Packers. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. Now after a big win last week, the Eagles return home as conquering heroes with everything supposedly fixed — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against an NFC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against the NFC. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (291) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-24 |
Bears v. Texans -5.5 |
|
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (290) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (289). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: I found it hard to be optimistic about the Texans going into last year after a three-year run where they had an 11-38-1 record. But rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans had an immediate impact on this team — and C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. But, on the other hand, general manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level of this roster. He traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to offer more weapons for Stroud. He signed 14 free agents and drafted another five players for a defense that ranked 14th in the NFL by allowing 330.7 total YPG. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. There may be too much talent in the locker room with Stroud that can push away the Regression Gods. The Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set higher than 41. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games following a game against an AFC South rival. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Bears. The Chicago hype revolves around Caleb Williams whom the Bears selected in the first pick in the NFL draft — and general manager Ryan Poles will not be accused of not putting their next potential franchise quarterback into a position to succeed this time around. After trading for wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster an anemic wide receiver room for Justin Fields last year, Poles traded for Keenan Allen from the Chargers and signed running back D’Andre Swift as a free agent who can catch balls out of the backfield. Poles also drafted Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth pick in the draft — and the fully-capable X wideout as the third option in this attack along with tight end Cole Kmet who caught 73 balls last year makes this offense look much, much better than in years past. The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One — and now he is playing his first NFL game in a hostile environment. The Bears enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Williams inherits a dismal Chicago legacy in prime-time games as the Bears are just 12-28-2 ATS in their last 42 games played at night. The Bears have also lost and failed to cover the point spread in all 7 of their appearances on Sunday Night Football — and they lost all seven of those games by double-digits. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (290) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-24 |
Bears v. Texans UNDER 46 |
Top |
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One. But don’t sleep on this Bears defense that made dramatic improvements in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — and they held the Titans to just 244 yards of offense. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home. They also enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Houston held the Colts to only 303 total yards in their narrow victory last week. The Texans ranked 11th in the NFL last season by allowing just 20.8 Points-Per-Game — and they should be better this year. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Houston scored 24.5 PPG at home in their nine regular season games last year — but they did not score more than 22 points in six of those nine home games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range — and the Bears have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-24 |
Giants +1.5 v. Commanders |
Top |
18-21 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (281) plus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (282). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 28-6 loss at home to Minnesota as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (0-1) opened their season with a 37-20 loss at Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINT(S): It was as bad a start as possible for the Giants in Week One with confidence in quarterback Daniel Jones perhaps hitting an all-time low after he completed only 22 of 42 passes for 186 with two interceptions last week. But the books have New York as just a small underdog in this game for a reason. The Giants did not nearly as bad as they did in their opener last year where they got humiliated at home against Dallas by a 40-0 score. The following week, they went on the road to beat Arizona by a 31-28 score. There are five other teams in the history of the NFL to lose two straight openers by 20 or more points — and those teams have won and covered the point spread in 4 of those 5 games. New York has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss under head coach Brian Daboll. Even with Jones as their QB, the Giants have rebounded to cover the point spread in 21 of their 35 games after a loss. Daboll, Jones, and general manager Joe Shoen and Jones are all on the hot seat in a make-it-or-break-it year. Daboll has reshuffled his coaching staff headlined by new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. Injuries played a big role in their 6-11 campaign last season — so the offensive line could improve if they stay healthy. Jones regressed after an encouraging first year under Daboll — but better protection could get him back to his 2022-23 form. Saquon Barkley was not resigned with the offense turning to a running back by committee approach. After ranking last in Explosive Plays, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers was drafted in the first round — and he is healthy to play this afternoon after dealing with an injury. The Giants have been more effective on the road relative to point spread expectations as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against fellow NFC East rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 30 games as an underdog. The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator to help the former college head coach of Patrick Mahomes continue his failing upward career trajectory. Kingsbury has been in the same room with some talented quarterbacks — but now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line that allowed Sam Howell to get sacked a league-leading 65 times last year. Daniels is thin and took too many hits last year — if his breakout senior season was a product of great talent at wide receiver at LSU, it could be a long season for the Commanders. He ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns last week as he drew comparisons as the next Lamar Jackson — but while he completed 17 of 24 passes, he was too often simply dumping the ball off as he only threw for 184 yards. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a loss by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after allowing 30 or more points. The Commanders make their debut at home at FedEx Field in the Quinn and Daniels era — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. Quinn’s journey to rebuild this defense looks to be a long one after they allowed Baker Mayfield to torch them for 392 total yards. And Washington already has kicker issues after cutting Cade York this week after he missed two field goals. They signed Austin Siebert off the street to take over the place-kicking duties.
FINAL TAKE: Jones is never more confident than when he is playing the Commanders — he is 5-1-1 straight up in his seven starts while covering the points spread in 6 of those 7 games. Daboll has covered the point spread in all 4 of his games against Washington (as an underdog in all four games, BTW) — covering the point spread by 11.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (281) plus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-24 |
Maryland v. Virginia +1 |
|
27-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 9/14:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the Virginia Cavaliers plus (or minus) the points versus the Maryland Terrapins. Virginia (2-0) looks to build off their 31-30 win at Wake Forest as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They return home looking to avenge their 42-14 loss at Maryland last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Maryland (1-1) looks to rebound from a 27-24 upset loss at home to Michigan State as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Terrapins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. Take Virginia plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is now on a 66 of 110 (60%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after CA$HING the Washington State-Washington Under in the Apple Cup in college football just now! Now Frank has tonight’s Toledo-Mississippi State ATS winner on ESPNU at 7:30 PM ET for his 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month! DO NOT MISS OUT!
|
09-14-24 |
Toledo v. Mississippi State -10 |
Top |
41-17 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-23 loss at Arizona State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Toledo (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 38-23 win against UMass as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a get-right game for Mississippi State under rookie head coach Jeff Lebby. The former offensive coordinator at Oklahoma and Ole Miss mentioned in his press conference after last week’s game that he is focusing on getting off to a better start by his team this week. The Bulldogs went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score before they made it a game in the second half by outscoring the Sun Devils on the road by a 16-3 score. They nearly overcame a devastating fumble on their one-yard line that Arizona State scooped up to score a defensive touchdown. Senior transfer quarterback from Baylor Blake Shapen played well in a hostile environment by completing 18 of 28 passes for 268 passing yards while throwing two touchdown passes without an interception. Mississippi State returns home to Davis Wade Stadium where they crushed Eastern Kentucky two weeks ago by a 56-7 score. The Bulldogs have covered the points spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 range. Toledo was fortunate to get past the Minutemen after they outgained by -126 net yards. The Rockets only gained 258 yards of offense and lost the first down battle by a 12 to 23 margin. They only produced a 26% Success Rate on their offensive plays. They benefitted from a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that immediately restored their seven-point lead in the second quarter. And the final score was deceptive since UMass failed at an onside kick after scoring a late touchdown with less than three minutes to go which gave Toledo a short field from which they scored a final touchdown to ice the game. Quarterback Tucker Gleason completed only 8 of 23 passes for 175 yards — he has completed less than 50% of his passes in over 200 career passes. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road after a victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win on their home field. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 37 or more points. Now after playing Duquesne and then the Minutemen at home, they go on the road for a big step up in competition against a Power Four program. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog under head coach Jason Candle. This is a rebuilding year for Candle with just eight starters back from their 11-3 team from last season. They lost three of their four starters in the secondary with two now playing in the NFL and one leaving in the transfer portal — and that leaves an inexperienced defensive backfield against this Bulldogs passing attack under Lebby.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played in September — and Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-24 |
Washington State v. Washington UNDER 54.5 |
|
24-19 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (137) and the Washington Huskies (138). THE SITUATION: Washington State (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 37-16 upset win against Texas Tech as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Washington (2-0) has won their first two games after their 30-9 win against Eastern Michigan as a 24.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars' defense has been of the bend-but-don’t-break variety as they have only given up 46 points despite ranking 124th in the nation in yards allowed. The formula for success in their “Super Bowl” game this season with the Pac-12 in transition will be to run the football and burn time off the clock. Washington State rushed for 301 yards against the Red Raiders last week. Sophomore quarterback Josh Mateer has struggled with his accuracy. He only completed 9 of 19 passes for 115 yards last week. This is a much different offense for head coach Jake Dickert after quarterback Cam Ward left the program in the offseason for Miami (FL). The Cougars have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 15 games in the first half of the season, Washington State has played 10 of these games Under the Total. Washington held the Eagles to just 204 yards of offense last week in their 21-point win. Two games into the Jedd Fisch era as the Huskies new head coach and it has been the defense that has stood out. They have held their first two opponents to just 228.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 3.4 Yards-Per-Play — and neither of those teams reached the end zone against them. Fisch’s teams have 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing in September. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have also played 4 straight Unders after a victory at home by 17 or more points. Former Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers is the new starting quarterback for this program — he completed 21 of 26 passes for 261 yards with four touchdown passes last week. But after playing Weber State and Eastern Michigan, this is the first big test for this new offense and their first game played away from Husky Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: The Apple Cup involves a team from the Big Ten as we enter a Brave New World. Fisch’s teams have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and the Cougars have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12. 10* CFB Washington State-Washington O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (137) and the Washington Huskies (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-24 |
UNLV v. Kansas -9 |
|
23-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). THE SITUATION: Kansas (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 23-17 upset loss at Illinois as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. UNLV (2-0) comes off a 72-14 victory at home against Utah Tech as a 41.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played at the Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City since Kansas is building a new football stadium this year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Lance Leipold will have his team ready to play in this rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last December. Leipold’s teams going back to his previous tenure at Buffalo have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games after an upset loss on the road. His Kansas teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with six days or less of rest. Leipold has miraculously transformed the Jayhawks into a College Football Playoff contender with the expanded field coinciding with his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters return from the group that finished 9-4 after their 49-36 victory against this UNLV team in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. He now has a veteran roster with 30 seniors including up to 15 who will be starters. Three of their four losses were decided by just one scoring possession. But how far this team can go will likely be determined by the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels who only played in three games last season. The dual-threat junior ranked third in the nation in Total QBR in his nine games played two seasons ago which was good enough for him to be named to the second All-Big 12 squad. Last year, he completed 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception before going down with an injury. On the other side of the ball, Kansas gave up -9.0 fewer Points-Per-Game and -91.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game than their previous season with defensive coordinator Brian Borland more comfortable in varying his schemes given his talent base. The front seven remains small with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, but more improvement with this unit will make things easier for an explosive offense that ranked fourth and third in the nation by scoring 41.7 PPG and generating 507.0 YPG. Daniels can be loose with the football — he threw three interceptions last week with the Fighting Illini returning one for a touchdown in what ended up being the difference in the game. The Jayhawks did hold Illinois to just 271 yards while outgaining them by +56 net yards. Tonight’s game presents a good opportunity for Daniels to learn from those mistakes and get on the same page with first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. Kansas ranks 20th in Success Rate on offense so far this season — and they are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. After ranking 11th in Explosiveness last season, they already have eight explosive plays this year. UNLV opened their season with a 27-7 upset win at Houston before their glorified scrimmage against an FCS school last week. My fundamental question regarding the Rebels last season was whether first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas. The answer was a resounding “Yes!” UNLV won nine of their first 11 games with their two losses being to eventual National Champion Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and at Fresno State. They reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where they lost at Boise State by a 44-20 score. Eleven starters return — and Odom is doing a nice job of using the transfer portal to poach offensive skill position talent from the FCS level and former blue-chip defensive backs who are looking for second chances after struggling at Power Four schools. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a rising star with his “Go-Go” up-tempo run-first offense that is heavy on pre-snap motion and flexible formations. The front seven was solid — UNLV ranked 33rd in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 42nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. But the Rebels ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing 415.5 total Yards-Per-Game because of their pass defense that ranked 111st by surrendering 253.7 passing YPG. The biggest loss in the offseason was sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava transferring to USC after being named the MWC Freshman of the Year. Odom dipped into the FCS ranks to bring in two transfer quarterbacks with dual-threat skills — and Patriot League Player of the Year Matthew Sluka seized the starting job in the fall. Sluka has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 46.7% of his passes. Last week’s game should have been an opportunity for him to build some confidence in the passing game — but he only completed 8 of 17 passes against the Utah Tech defense. Let’s remember that the Rebels lost their last three games of the season and only beat two of the seven teams who played in bowl games last year. They were 6-2 in conference play — but they only outgained MWC opponents by just 31 YPG. The defense got exposed when facing good offenses. Michigan scored 31 points against them while generating 8.1 Yards-Per-Play. Fresno State scored 31 points and averaged 5.1 YPP. San Jose State averaged 7.3 YPP en route to their 37 points. Boise State’s 44 points came from them generating 8.0 YPP. And in the bowl game, the Jayhawks gained 591 total yards by averaging 10.2 YPP while generating 449 yards in the air with six touchdown passes.
FINAL TAKE: UNLV has revenge on their minds but it may be Borland and the Kansas defensive coaches who will benefit more from recently facing Marion’s Go-Go approach on offense. The Rebels only rushed for 95 yards in that game from a 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry average — so the onus may be on Sluka to win this game with his arm. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UNLV-Kansas ESPN Special with the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-24 |
Bills +2.5 v. Dolphins |
|
31-10 |
Win
|
102 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (103) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The conventional wisdom is that the Bills began running the ball more when Ken Dorsey was fired and replaced by Joe Brady as offensive coordinator on November 14th — but I witnessed the seeds of this transformation earlier in the season in the second half of their game against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football after going into halftime trailing by a 6-0 score. Buffalo patiently leaned on their running game to grind out a 14-9 victory in what I saw as a foreshadowing of what this team will become moving forward. I can only imagine the verbal lashing head coach Sean McDermott unleashed on Dorsey at halftime of that game. Dorsey was fired about a month later. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are now gone — but I am encouraged by these moves. Sure, these changes can be evaluated as “addition via subtraction.” Diggs was inefficient and a diva wanting the ball — and Allen froze him out in the second half of the season. Davis perpetually underachieved. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applaud McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons. I think a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world. I like the shift in direction of this team as it better synchs with McDermott’s defensive tendencies. This approach may be grounded from their ability to dominate this Dolphins team. Buffalo has beaten Miami in 10 of their last 11 games against them while generating 417 Yards-Per-Game and scoring 34 Points-Per-Game. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game and they outgained by the Dolphins by +198 net yards. The Bills gained 473 yards in that game while holding Miami to just 275 total yards despite that game being played at Hard Rock Stadium. They held the Dolphins to just 20 points in their 48-20 victory in October. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season. For Miami, the biggest priority in the offseason last year seemed to be figuring out how to keep quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy after he suffered what was probably three concussions during the season. He is the essential point guard that makes head coach Mike McDaniels’ offense go — and he played an entire season for the first time since 2018. But it is fair to say the offense is limited at times since McDaniels and Tagovailoa are highly reluctant to attempt to gain yards from QB run plays. And while the media proclaimed McDaniels an offensive genius by his second game as head coach of the Dolphins, the dirty little secret is that his play-calling tends to get predictable in short-yardage, on third downs, and in the red zone. I wonder if the urgency to keep his quarterback safe limits his flexibility in these moments. Miami loves to emphasize their speed — but perhaps their league-leading 401.3 Yards-Per-Game last season is more a reflection of them being Flat Track Bullies than the genius of McDaniels? The Dolphins won 10 of their 11 games against sub-.500 teams last year — but they lost six of their seven games against teams with a winning record including that 28-point loss to Buffalo, a 37-point loss to Baltimore, and then their 26-7 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs. The problems Miami has in cold weather are well-documented with those conditions neutralizing their speed advantage. But good teams tend to have speed too — so maybe this offense simply hits a wall when facing similar talent? And good teams tend to expose the Dolphins' defense which was supposed to significantly improve under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. While Miami gave up -0.5 fewer Points-Per-Game and -19.5 YPG, their defense ranked just 19th in Defensive DVOA — and there was speculation that Fangio clashed with players inside the building. I wonder if Fangio’s frustration was a by-product of the culture McDaniel has fostered. Fangio is now gone — and McDaniels’ third defensive coordinator in three seasons is Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver. Gone is star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who signed for a big payday in Las Vegas. Cornerback Xavien Howard was a salary cap casualty. The unit was not helped late in the season when both Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb suffered season-ending injuries — and Chubb has started the season on the PUP list. There are injuries in the running back room as well with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. Being less than at full strength at running back is not a good development for this team since Tagovailoa only averages 207.7 passing Yards-Per-Game with a Passer Rating of 77.4 in his seven games against the Bills.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 5-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing at home. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (103) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-24 |
Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
31-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 270 total yards of offense. One of the Arizona touchdowns came from a 96-yard kickoff return. Defensive end Greg Rousseau registered three sacks — but it was Von Miller’s one sack and five hits on the quarterback that might be the most encouraging aspect of their play on defense last week. Von Miller only played 258 snaps in an injury-plagued season last year — it would be a boon for this defense if he regains the form he enjoyed when playing for the Los Angeles Rams in their Super win three years ago. The offense continued their focus on running the football under offensive coordinator Joe Brady who took over in November for Ken Dorsey. The Bills ran the ball 33 times while asking Josh Allen to pass only 23 times. Running the ball is a recipe for lower-scoring games — and it has the additional benefit of keeping the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game. The Bills have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range with Sean McDermott as their head coach. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. Miami’s defense played well last week as they held the Jaguars to just 267 total yards for former Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver who has taken over as their defensive coordinator. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster their defense led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. The offense is dealing with injuries at running back with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. The Dolphins have played 13 of their 18 games Under the Total when playing at home under head coach Mike McDaniel — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 6 of their 7 games played on a Thursday Under the Total in the McDermott era — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-24 |
Jets v. 49ers UNDER 44 |
|
19-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins anew after missing the playoffs for the 13th straight season with their 7-10 record last year. San Francisco (0-0) comes off their 25-22 loss in overtime against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York gets Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a season-ending injury on the first Monday night last year. Multiple reports indicate he looked very sharp in training camp — but it might be too much to expect a 40-year-old coming off major leg surgery to retain his same mobility. I expect the Jets to lean heavily on running back Breece Hall and their outstanding defense to grind out games. They only scored 15.8 Points-Per-Game last season while ranking second-to-last in the NFL by generating just 268.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Jets’ defense remains elite after only giving up 209 PPG and 292.3 total YPG — both marks were third best in the league and they also ranked third in the NFL in the Football Outsiders DVOA ranking and third in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total. It has been a noisy offseason for the 49ers. Running back Christian McCaffrey strained his Achilles early in training camp so he has not practiced much — and his health for this game remains a question. Left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out for the entire training camp demanding to renegotiate their contracts. While both stars eventually got their way in the last few days, they have not practiced much at all and may get limited action on the field tonight. As we witnessed last night, even the explosive Detroit Lions offense was sluggish last night in their opener despite playing at home against a defense with two rookies starting in the front seven (only 20 points in regulation!?!). The Niners’ offense looks primed to experience some rough patches as they get back in sync. And if Williams cannot anchor the offensive line, this team struggles as San Francisco has lost five straight games when Williams is not on the field for at least 50% of the snaps — and they averaged only 17.4 PPG in those games by scoring just 20, 19, 17, 17, and 14 points in those contests. The 49ers defense remains very good after allowing only 17.5 PPG last season which was the third-lowest mark in the league. There should be better cohesion on that side of the ball after some philosophical differences between head coach Kyle Shanahan and previous defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Nick Sorensen got promoted to run the defense. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in September.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams deployed their version of the four-corners offense in basketball last night by burning time off the clock when they had the ball last night — and I expect both teams to deploy similar strategies tonight. In Rodgers’ last full season in 2022 with Green Bay, they ranked tied for last (with the 49ers) in the NFL by averaging 31.0 seconds per play. San Francisco led the league last year by averaging 30.8 seconds per play. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-24 |
Jets +4.5 v. 49ers |
Top |
19-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins anew after missing the playoffs for the 13th straight season with their 7-10 record last year. San Francisco (0-0) comes off their 25-22 loss in overtime against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a noisy offseason for the 49ers. Left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out for the entire training camp demanding to renegotiate their contracts. While both stars eventually got their way in the last few days, they have not practiced much at all and may get limited action on the field tonight. Running back Christian McCaffrey strained his Achilles early in training camp so he has not practiced much — and his health for this game remains a question. Mounting injuries in the preseason led to head coach Kyle Shanahan having to cancel a joint scrimmage with New Orleans. There was the emotional shock of Ricky Pearsall getting shot last week. Those are plenty of distractions for any team — but for an organization coming off an overtime loss in the Super Bowl, it may only fuel the typical Super Bowl hangover the loser of that game tends to suffer. The loser of the Super Bowl has lost 14 of the last 24 opening games to the new season — and these runner-ups have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of those 24 games. And when these Super Bowl losers are favored by more than three points, while they have won 9 of their 13 games in Week One, they failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those 13 contests. If Williams cannot anchor the offensive line, this team struggles as San Francisco has lost five straight games when Williams is not on the field for at least 50% of the snaps. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games of a new season under Shanahan. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those games. New York gets Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a season-ending injury in the first Monday night last year. Multiple reports indicate he looked very sharp in training camp. He has won his last ten appearances on Monday Night Football. He certainly has plenty of weapons including wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams and running back Breece Hall. Rodgers’ teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing the role of the underdog. Rodgers also benefits from the luxury of an outstanding defense that ranked third in the NFL in the Football Outsiders DVOA ranking as well as third in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. The Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in the first half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers had covered the point spread in ten straight games at home culminating in a 42-10 win against Dallas on October 8th — but they have since failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games at home. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Jets (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-24 |
Rams v. Lions -4.5 |
|
20-26 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-0) returns to the field after their heartbreaking 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog the previous week.
REASONS TO THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit plays their first home game since beating Matthew Stafford and this Rams team in the postseason last January. The Lions have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams from the NFC. It is going to be difficult for the Los Angeles defense to slow down this explosive Detroit offense as they learn to live life without future Hall-of-Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. They traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones with a looming expiring contract with him — and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. Expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing in a domed stadium.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-24 |
Rams v. Lions OVER 52 |
Top |
20-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Detroit (0-0) lost the next week in a 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have played 8 of their last 19 games Over the Total when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Lions now get a playoff rematch against a Rams team learning to live life without future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Los Angeles also traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones they were facing a looming expiring contract with him — and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. There are issues with the Rams’ offensive line that gave me pause as well — but right tackle Rob Havenstein who is listed as questionable looks to play which minimizes the loss of suspended left tackle Alaric Jackson. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford should be fine — and he will never be healthier than he in Week One. He has plenty of motivation in another return to Detroit to play against his former team. When Stafford had wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua along with running back Kyren Williams on the field, the Rams generated a whopping 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Los Angeles will move the ball in the air against this suspect Lions defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 247.4 passing YPG. Once again, Detroit rebuilt their secondary which included drafting two rookies in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. But it will take time for them to get up to speed against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. The Lions were last in the league by allowing 69 receptions of 20 or more yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and Detroit has played 15 of their last 17 opening weeks to the new season Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-24 |
Texans v. Colts +3 |
Top |
29-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (470) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (469). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (0-0) comes off a 9-8 season where they missed the playoffs after a 23-19 loss at home to the Texans as a 1-point underdog in the final week of the regular season. Houston (0-0) finished 10-7 in the regular before advancing to the AFC Divisional Round where they lost on the road against Baltimore by a 34-10 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans have been one of the most hyped-up teams in the offseason given their 45-14 victory against Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs and the vast potential of C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. But Gardner Minshew was a dropped pass away from leading the Colts to victory and taking Houston’s spot in the playoffs. Indianapolis outgained the Texans by 54 net yards in that game as well — and they held Stroud and the Houston offense to just 306 total yards. Now this Indy team gets Anthony Richardson back at quarterback who led the team to a fast start in the first half before getting knocked out of that game with an injury in their 31-20 victory at home against Houston in Week Two last year. The easy question regarding the Colts is how good Richardson can be in his second season after only throwing 84 passes last season (and can he stay healthy?). I think the real question is how good the supporting cast is for him or the 39-year-old Joe Flacco beyond the quarterback position. General manager Chris Ballard’s priorities in the offseason were resigning wide receiver Michael Pittman, defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and linebacker Zaire Franklin. Indianapolis ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 349.8 Yards-Per-Game — but that number rose to 371.1 YPG when playing at home which helped them generate 25.7 Points-Per-Game. They outgained their guests by +18.4 net YPG when playing at home at Lucas Oil Stadium. What makes Richardson a potential generational talent is his dual-threat capabilities. He generated 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry while rushing for four touchdowns in his four games last year. I’m not down on Houston — I just think they are overvalued in this opening game spot as a road favorite against a divisional rival pining for this revenge opportunity for the entire offseason. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They had a 7-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were outclassed in the AFC Divisional Playoff round in a 34-10 loss to Baltimore. The Texans struggled to offer Stroud a credible rushing attack — they failed to rush for at least 100 yards in 12 of their games. They did sign Joe Mixon from Cincinnati in the offseason — but he has not generated more than 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry since the 2018 season. Offensive coordinator deploys a zone-blocking run scheme which is an approach Mixon has struggled with in his career. The Texans were a better statistical team at home last season. On the road, Houston only scored 18.4 PPG and generated 301.6 YPG — and they were outscored by -4.3 net PPG while getting outgained by -29.8 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games as a favorite last season — and the Colts covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games when playing with equal rest. 25* NFL AFC South Underdog of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (470) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-24 |
California +12.5 v. Auburn |
|
21-14 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). THE SITUATION: California (1-0) won their opening game of the season in a 31-13 win against UC-Davis as a 20.5-point favorite last Saturday. Auburn (1-0) began their season with a 73-3 victory against Alabama A&M as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal looked sluggish last week by only gaining 281 yards of offense against the Aggies — but they were holding some things back to save for this game. First-team All-Pac 12 running back Jaydn Ott only ran the ball 14 times for 49 yards — but he did score two touchdowns. The Golden Bears went into halftime with just a 14-13 lead — but they controlled the second half by outscoring UC-Davis by a 17-0 margin to pull away for the comfortable victory. They held the Aggies to just 304 total yards of offense — and they gave up only one offensive touchdown with UC-Davis scoring on a six-yard fumble recovery. Head coach Justin Wilcox has 15 starters back from the team that finished 6-7 after a 34-14 loss to Texas Tech as a 3-point underdog in the Independence Bowl. The Golden Bears did win their final three games of the regular season to become bowl-eligible. This may be Wilcox’s best team at Cal since his 2019 team that finished 8-5. The offensive line returns seven players with starting experience who entered the year with 117 combined starts. While Wilcox brought in former North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers in the transfer portal, it was sophomore Fernando Mendoza under center again after starting eight games last season. He was efficient last week by completing 15 of 22 passes for 158 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. The defense has eight starters back. Cal has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing with equal rest with their opponent. The Golden Bears have been very reliable in spots like this having covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games on the road as an underdog under Wilcox. They have also won four of their last seven games on the road against teams outside their conference — and they have covered the point spread in all 7 of those games. Auburn’s offense was only on the field for 13:26 minutes last week but still racked up 728 yards of offense in their glorified scrimmage against Alabama A&M. Hosting cupcakes before taking on SEC opponents has been the standard operating procedure for the Tigers — this game is the first time they are playing at home against a non-conference Power Five/Power Four program scene 2016. They have 17 starters back from the group that finished 6-7 last season after getting upset by Maryland in the Music City Bowl by a 31-13 score as a 4-point favorite. The defense replaced five players who got drafted into the NFL. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored by at least a touchdown up to -37 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Berkeley last season with the Tigers pulling out a 14-10 victory as a 6-point road favorite — so Cal will have revenge on their mind while confident they can compete after outgaining the Tigers by 43 net yards on the strength of their defense that gave up only 230 yards of offense. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against opponents outside the SEC. 10* CFB California-Auburn ESPN2 Special with the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-24 |
Packers v. Eagles UNDER 49.5 |
|
29-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (453) and the Philadelphia Eagles (454). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) finished 10-9 last season after their 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) finished 11-7 last year after their 32-9 loss in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers in the NFC Wildcard Round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This opening game involves two veteran head coach who should see significant improvement on the defensive side of the football after hiring new defensive coordinators who are immediate upgrades. Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni was bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season. And to no surprise, the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving. They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. Sirianni tapped Vic Fangio to run his defense this season — the 65-year-old is considered the architect of the two-high safety shell defense that is all the rage right now to limit big-play explosiveness in the modern pass-happy league. General manager Howie Roseman also addressed the embattled defensive secondary by drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the first two rounds of the NFL draft and resigning C.J. Gardner-Johnson who left the team two years ago to sign as a free agent in Detroit. On the other side of the ball, the offense may struggle to adapt to new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Quarterback Jalen Hurts described the offense as 95% new — and he did not play a snap in the preseason so rust is likely. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when favored by up to a touchdown. The Green Bay offense may also be rusty out of the gate since quarterback Jordan Love only threw two passes in the preseason. Head coach Matt LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42 to 51-point range.
FINAL TAKE: I suspect both offenses will be sluggish in their execution playing in Brazil in this opener after getting very little action in the preseason exhibition games. These two teams have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against each other — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing against each other away from Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Friday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (453) and the Philadelphia Eagles (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-06-24 |
Packers +2 v. Eagles |
Top |
29-34 |
Loss |
-101 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (453) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (454). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) finished 10-9 last season after their 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) finished 11-7 last year after their 32-9 loss in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers in the NFC Wildcard Round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, I think LaFleur deserves a ton of credit — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers which makes me still consider if the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers' defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games away from home if not favored by three or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with equal rest as their opponent. My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season. They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox returned and linebacker Hassan Reddick. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Despite how ugly Philadelphia looked last season, DraftKings opened with them as a 1.5-point favorite back in April — and the betting public has been on the Eagles ever since in expecting them to bounce back from their slide. If they do, it will take some time given all the changes. They are just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC rivals — and the Packers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against NFC foes. 25* NFL Peacock Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (453) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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