At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 54-30 win against Kent State as a 2.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Ball State (5-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-29 upset loss at Northern Illinois as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chippewas generated 505 yards against the Golden Flashes last week with quarterback Daniel Richardson completing 21 of 27 passes for 268 yards with four touchdown passes. But Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Chippewas are scoring 32.8 PPG and averaging 447.5 total YPG — but those numbers drop by -6.0 PPG and -39.7 YPG in their five games on the road. Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Ball State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed 475 yards to the Huskies last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite returning 20 starters from the squad that won the Mid-American Championship last season, head coach Mike Neu has found things more difficult this year back to a full conference schedule after the COVID-shortened campaign last season. After scoring 34.2 PPG last year, the Cardinals are scoring only 25.6 PPG this year — that number drops to 22.2 PPG at home in their four games. They rank 106th in the nation by averaging 347.2 total YPG — and they averaging -19.2 fewer YPG at home. Third-year starting quarterback Drew Plitt leads an offense that is averaging just 206.0 passing YPG this season, ranking 96th in the nation. He has passed for less than 200 yards in two straight games as Neo pivots the offense around freshman running back Carson Steele. Ball State has rushed for at least 200 yards in three of their last four games. Continuing this ground attack will not exploit the vulnerable Chippewas ‘ pass defense that ranks 122nd in the nation by allowing 280.5 passing YPG. Central Michigan does defend the run well after returning ten starters from a defense that ranked ninth in the nation last year by holding their opponents to 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. The Chippewas are holding conference opponents to 3.8 YPC this year. The high-risk/high-reward aggressive tactics under head coach Jim McElwain is giving up too many big plays in the passing game — but Central Michigan does rank in the top ten in the nation in Tackles for Loss fueled by their 27 sacks. The Cardinals rushed for 246 yards last week — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ball State returns home where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Weather looks to play a role tonight with rain expected with winds in the 10-15 miles-per-hour range. The kicking and passing games may be negatively impacted. The Chippewas have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in that 56.5 to 63 range. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 34-26 upset loss to Ohio as a 6-point favorite last Tuesday. Western Michigan (6-4) ended their two-game losing streak with a 45-40 win against Akron as a 26-point favorite last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan still has plenty to play for this season even if their 3-3 conference record likely has them out of contention to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Reaching eight wins would be a milestone for this program as would winning the Michigan MAC Title involving the four directional teams from the state in the conference. Reaching a fourth bowl in the last six seasons under head coach Chris Creighton would cement his legacy. The Eagles have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Ben Bryant complete 41 of 57 passes for 354 yards in the losing effort to the Bobcats. The graduate transfer quarterback from Cincinnati is completing 69.7% of his passes and has thrown for at least 300 yards in four straight games. He leads an offense ranked 27th in the nation by scoring 34.0 PPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after passing for at least 280 yards. They return home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 PPG. Eastern Michigan rarely gets soundly defeated — they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. Western Michigan has been inconsistent under head coach Tim Lester. They are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival. The defensive play of the Broncos has been holding them back. They are tied for 91st in the nation by allowing 30.0 PPG — and they surrender 34.8 PPG and 413.3. total YPG in their four games on the road. Western Michigan has allowed at least 31 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after giving up at least 31 points in their last two contests. The offense has taken a step back this year as well. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby led the team to score 41.7 PPG last season — but the loss of two players to the NFL from that group may be playing a role in their averaging 11.0 fewer PPG this season. On the road, the Broncos are scoring just 24.3 PPG. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan was a favorite to win the MAC West Title — so their 3-3 record in the MAC has been another disappointment under Lester. It could be worse — the Broncos have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Eastern Michigan has played an incredible 45 of their last 58 games within one scoring possession. They are 2-3 in their five one-score games this year continuing a string of tough luck where they have won only four of their last fourteen games decided by eight points or less. Eastern Michigan has upset Miami (OH) and Toledo this year making it 15 upset wins under Creighton in the last six seasons. Getting 5.5 to 6 or so points offers a nice cushion in a game where the Eagles should be in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (266) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (265). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 31-17 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (7-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 28-16 upset loss to Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Matthew Stafford had his worst game in a Los Angeles uniform by completing 31 of 48 passes for 294 yards but with two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. The Rams’ offensive line struggled to slow down the Tennessee four-man rush and Stafford’s play reminded Detroit Lions fans of the quarterback they would often witness. Stafford will be without Robert Woods for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL on Friday. That injury came a day after the team signed Odell Beckham. I am skeptical but keeping an open mind on how Beckham will work with the Rams. There may be early growing pains in getting Stafford and Beckham on the same page. Stafford struggled at times keeping the Lions' offense in synch under the pressure of feeding Calvin Johnson the football. Los Angeles only gained 347 total yards last week with head coach and play-caller Sean McVay abandoning the run game and the play-action game that brought him so much initial success with this offense. Scoring 38 points against the New York Giants and Houston Texans is great — but the Rams have not scored more than 28 points in their other four games since peaking in a 34-24 win against Tampa Bay the last Sunday night in September. Those 28 points were scored at home against Detroit, by the way. Los Angeles did hold the Titans to just 194 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The Rams are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November under McVay. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after getting upset by an NFC West rival in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival as a home favorite. The 49ers only gained 337 yards against the Cardinals but they only had the ball on offense for 23:13 minutes. They averaged a healthy 6.6 Yards-Per-Play last week after averaging 8.6 YPP the previous week in a 33-22 win at Chicago. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. San Francisco has lost eleven of their last twelve games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They may be winless at home this season but they are outgaining their opponents by +13.2 net YPG. The Niners are outgaining their opponents by +27.5 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 meetings with the Rams while sweeping them in both divisional games the last two seasons. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (266) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 28-16 upset loss to Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 31-17 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ defense held the Titans to just 194 total yards but were stagnant on offense. Matthew Stafford had his worst game in a Los Angeles uniform by completing 31 of 48 passes for 294 yards but with two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. The Rams’ offensive line struggled to slow down the Tennessee four-man rush and Stafford’s play reminded Detroit Lions fans of the quarterback they would often witness. Stafford will be without Robert Woods for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL on Friday. That injury came a day after the team signed Odell Beckham. I am skeptical but keeping an open mind on how Beckham will work with the Rams. There may be early growing pains in getting Stafford and Beckham on the same page. Stafford struggled at times keeping the Lions' offense in synch under the pressure of feeding Calvin Johnson the football. Los Angeles only gained 347 total yards last week with head coach and play-caller Sean McVay abandoning the run game and the play-action game that brought him so much initial success with this offense. Scoring 38 points against the New York Giants and Houston Texans is great — but the Rams have not scored more than 28 points in their other four games since peaking in a 34-24 win against Tampa Bay the last Sunday night in September. Those 28 points were scored at home against Detroit, by the way. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Rams have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Now Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored. San Francisco only gained 337 yards last week in their loss to a Colt McCoy-led Cardinals. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did complete 28 of 40 passes for 326 yards in the losing effort — but the Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total hosting the Rams. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have seen 49 or fewer combined points in three of their four games at home in Levi Stadium. They have not scored more than 21 points in five of their eight games. The Rams have seen 51 or fewer points in three of their four games on the road. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 24 or fewer points. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-4) has won two games in a row with their 13-7 victory against Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (5-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 23-16 upset loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. Kansas City has also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 14 points. The Chiefs have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played four straight Unders. Kansas City has then played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders — and they have played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. How long with the Patrick Mahomes slump continue? The Chiefs have only scored 36 combined points in their last three games. Facing the familiar Raiders’ defense may be just what the doctor ordered. Kansas City scored 35 and 32 points in their two games against Las Vegas last season. Mahomes has 15 touchdown passes in his six previous games against the Raiders. And while the Chiefs defense has only allowed 17 PPG in their last three games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Derek Carr completed 30 of 46 passes for 296 yards in the loss while leading the Raiders offense to 403 total yards. Las Vegas has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after gaining at least 400 yards run their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Raiders have averaged 423.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Las Vegas returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and the Over is 10-0-1 in their last 11 home games when they are the underdog. The Over is also 8-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas should be able to move the football against this Chiefs defense that allows 396.6 total YPG on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City sees 54.3 combined points scored when playing on the road while Las Vegas averages 50.6 combined points when playing at home. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Chiefs. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (264) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (263). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-3) had their two-game losing streak snapped with a 23-16 loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (5-4) has won two in a row after their 13-7 win against Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas dominated the statistics against the Giants last week. They won the first down battle by a 24-16 margin — and they outgained them by a 403 to 245 margin in yards. A -2 net turnover margin did the Raiders in — including a 41-yard interception returned for a touchdown by the Giants. Las Vegas returns home where they are 3-1 this season while outgaining their opponents to +85.8 net Yards-Per-Game. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Las Vegas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City beat a Packers team playing without Aaron Rodgers despite only gaining 237 yards and getting outgained by -64 net yards. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in November. Furthermore, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC West rivals — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against division foes. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (264) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (255) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (256). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) looks to rebound from a 34-31 loss in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog against Baltimore last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-24 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: All of Minnesota’s losses this season have been by a touchdown or less this season. They should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 59 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two in a row. Minnesota was outgained by -182 yards against the Ravens after being outgained by -141 yards to Dallas in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 points in two straight games. The Vikings are still outgaining their opponents overall this season. They have forced multiple turnovers in four straight games — and they lead the NFL by averaging 3.4 sacks per game. Minnesota has also scored at least 30 points in four of their games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 68.8% of his passes on the road with a 111.3 Passer Rating — the fourth-best QB mark on the road this season. He has ten passing touchdowns on the road and no interceptions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record a home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles generated 445 yards last week against the Eagles en route to outgaining them by +114 net yards. But the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Los Angeles returns home where they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL as they are allowing 162 rushing YPG. Minnesota should have success in this department as they average 143 rushing YPG on the road — and they have generated 550 rushing yards in their last four games. Vikings running back Delvin Cook may come out with a big game in response to the off-the-field problems he had this week. Los Angeles is also banged up in their secondary with at least two cornerbacks out and more defensive backs questionable with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November — and Minnesota has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings win this game — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Minnesota Vikings (255) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). THE SITUATION: Utah State (7-2) has won four games in a row after their 35-13 win at New Mexico State as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday. San Jose State (5-5) had their two-game winning streak end with their 27-24 loss at Nevada as a 12.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Quarterback Lucas Bonner completed 23 of 32 passes for 349 yards in the victory against the Aggies — but Utah State has played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Bonner passed for 406 yards in their previous game against Hawai’i -- but the Aggies have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 yards in two straight games. Utah State stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 61 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Aggies have played 40 of these games Under the Total. San Jose State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road —  and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Spartans have also played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. San Jose State has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 6 straight home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Spartans scoring numbers on the season are lower than expected because quarterback Nick Starkel has missed a handful of games. He was back last week to help the offense pass for 288 yards — but San Jose State has played 8 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Spartans return home where they hold their opponents to just 21.3 PPG — and the 319.0 total Yards-Per-Game they give up to their guests is -36.0 net YPG below their season average. San Jose State has played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record Utah State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-24 loss at Utah as a 6.5-point underdog two weeks ago. Colorado (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 37-34 upset victory against Oregon State in double-overtime as an 11.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chip Kelly’s seat is getting warmer in Los Angeles after a two-game slide — although both losses were without quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The bye week helped DTR and some other injured players get healthy again for the stretch run of the season that will determine whether or not this has been a successful season. With USC on deck, UCLA will want to establish some momentum. They narrowly lost at home to Oregon by a 34-31 score in their previous game before being flat against the Utes. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they spotted Utah 28 points in the first half in their last game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two in a row to a Pac-12 foe while allowing at least 31 points in both contests . Hosting the Buffaloes may be just what the doctor ordered as they have allowed at least 200 rushing yards five times in this season including in each of their last three games. In their last seven contests, Colorado is giving up 211 rushing YPG with their opponent scoring at least three rushing touchdowns in four of those games. UCLA running backs Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown along with Thompson-Robinson combine to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry with 20 rushing touchdowns. They host the Buffaloes at the Rose Bowl where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Colorado is getting better play from freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis who has led them to score 33 PPG in their last two games after they averaged just 12 PPG in their first six games against FBS opponents. But the Buffaloes winless on the road in four games with an average losing margin of -17.8 PPG. They only score 13.0 PPG and average 238.8 total YPG on the road — and they allow their home hosts to average 433.3 total YPG. This will be Colorado’s third game in their last four on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. The Buffaloes surrendered 475 yards to the Beavers in their upset win — and they have failed to cover the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not committing a turnover.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has lost by at least 22 points in all four of their setbacks in the Pac-12 this season. UCLA has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (6-3) has won two straight games after their 31-28 win against Mississippi State as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (4-5) looks to rebound from their 20-14 loss at Alabama as a 29.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while Arkansas has not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Razorbacks go back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season in their three games away from home. They score only 23.7 PPG in these three away games — and their defense allows 33.0 PPG and 409.3 total YPG. Playing away from Fayetteville has been a problem for this program — they have won just once in their last fifteen road games since 2018. This team has won only one road game in their seven played under head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas has lost both of their two true road games when playing in a hostile environment rather than a neutral field. Now they are favored despite having failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored. LSU may have lost last week — but they feel good about themselves for holding the potent Crimson Tide offense to just 308 total yards. The Tigers stuffed Alabama in 14 of their 22 rushing attempts while holding them to only 3.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. LSU dialed up their pressure by generating four sacks and eight tackles for loss against the Tide — and Razorbacks’ QB K.J. Jefferson struggles against the blitz. While the Tigers are playing for a lame-duck head coach in Ed Orgeron who will not be retained at the end of the season, I expect the players to rally around him and each other in this night game in Death Valley. This group does not want the embarrassment of not becoming bowl eligible. As it is, LSU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And while the offense has only scored 31 points in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Orgeron is looking for a spark on offense which is why freshman quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will get plenty of snaps tonight — and he has a cannon for an arm.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Arkansas is just 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games when favored. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 20* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). THE SITUATION: Baylor (7-2) looks to rebound from a 30-28 upset loss at TCU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 52-21 victory against Texas Tech as a 19.5-point favorite as a 19.5-point favorite on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners are right in the heart of the College Football Playoff conversation with their unbeaten record — but this will be the most difficult game they have played so far this year when considering that their eight FBS opponents have combined for a 28-45 record (not including their victory against Western Carolina from the FCS). Their best win up to this point is probably their six-point win against a 6-3 Kansas State team. Five of their victories have been by a touchdown or less. Even with this soft schedule, the play of the Oklahoma defense once again appears to be a liability. They allow 24.2 Points-Per-Game and 383.9 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking 60th and 63rd in the nation. Injuries have not helped matters — but this remains a defense that is allowing 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt from opposing quarterbacks while ranking 113th in the nation by giving up 272.9 passing YPG. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch lost two cornerbacks to the NFL from last year — and sophomore cornerback Woodi Washington has been out with an injury — but these are ominous numbers heading into the most difficult part of their schedule. They do come off a bye week — but they are just 6-6 ATS in the 12 games under Lincoln Riley with an extra week to prepare. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. And while freshman quarterback Caleb Williams passed for over 400 yards against the Red Raiders to lead an offense that generated 541 yards, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 375 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma has scored at least 37 points in seven straight games after their narrow 16-13 escape at home against West Virginia in early September — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in five straight games. Baylor may have been caught looking ahead to this showdown last week in their upset loss to a Horned Frogs team motivated to play for head coach Gary Patterson who resigned after their previous game. The Bears can remove the bad taste in their mouth from that disappointing performance by stunning the undefeated Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a Big 12 rival where they were laying at least six points. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Bears need to tighten up on defense after allowing TCU gain 570 yards. Baylor has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards. Head coach Dave Aranda has talent on defense with ten starters back from the COVID-marred rookie campaign with the team last year. The Bears had not allowed 30 points before last week with only Iowa State scoring more than 24 points against them. Baylor has a potent rushing attack that averages 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry and ranks seventh in the nation by generating 230.9 rushing YPG. By not asking junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon to do too much, the Bears are averaging a healthy 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, Baylor has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Aranda schemed a defense last year that limited the Sooners to just 269 total yards and 10 points in the first half in a 27-14 Oklahoma victory in Norman. Now the Bears host Oklahoma in Norman where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Sooners. The inexperience of Williams at quarterback may lead to some nervy moments for the National Championship aspirations of Oklahoma. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (5-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 31-17 upset win against Colorado State as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (5-4) has won two in a row with their 40-14 upset win at Fresno State as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys had their second-highest scoring game this season with the 31 points they put on the scoreboard against the Rams. They are still averaging just 23.0 PPG this season — and they have scored 18.0 PPG in their last three games even after their 31 points last week. Wyoming has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory.  And while the Cowboys generated 477 yards of offense last week, the Under is a decisive 40-18-1 in their last 59 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The strength of Wyoming is their defense as they hold their opponents to 21.3 PPG. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 22 or fewer points — and their last three opponents averaged just 19.3 PPG. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Wyoming is fourth in the nation by allowing only 157.9 passing YPG — and they rank 22nd in Opponent’s Pass Success Rate so the low counting pass yards they allow is not purely a function of slower-paced games. The Cowboys do run the ball 63% of the time — so the clock will keep running tonight. Head coach Craig Bohl has moved to Levi Williams as his starting quarterback in the last two games — but he is completing only 55% of his passes. Wyoming goes on the road where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 road games as an underdog. Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 24 points in eight of their last nine games — and they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG. Boise State gained 470 yards against the Cowboys — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This is not a good matchup for the Broncos since they are so dependent on the arm of quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Boise State only averages 110 rushing YPG with their rushers averaging 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry. Not only are they 117th in rushing YPG but they are 114th in Rush Success Rate. They host this game where they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total on the blue turf against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Expect plenty of stalled drives tonight as Wyoming and Boise State rank 20th and 29th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drives. The last four meetings between these two teams have averaged only 37 combined points. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against each other — and there have been 6 straight Unders between these two teams when playing in Boise. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (114) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (113). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-7) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 17-9 win against Houston as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (6-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 34-31 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami should build off their recent momentum as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games in the second half of the season. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when getting 7.5 to 14 points as an underdog. The biggest difference between Brian Flores' team this season and last year has been the turnover game. Miami led the NFL by forcing 29 turnovers last season. The Dolphins have forced only 13 turnovers in their nine games this year — but they have also committed 18 turnovers to saddle them with a -5 net turnover margin. Now they host a Ravens team that has only forced seven turnovers this season — and they have not had more than one takeaway in six straight games. If Miami can just stay even in the turnover battle, they should be competitive tonight. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last four games at home, the Ravens return to the road where they have scored 23 or fewer points in two of their three games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a game-time decision with his finger injury that kept him out last week. Jacoby Brissett is one of the better backups in the league — so if he plays, the Dolphins should still be competitive after he led them to victory against the Texans last week. Brissett also kept Miami alive in a tight game in Las Vegas earlier in the season before the Raiders won in overtime by a 30-27 score. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. 10* NFL Baltimore-Miami Fox-TV Special with the Miami Dolphins (114) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (113) and the Miami Dolphins (114). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 34-31 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Miami (2-7) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 17-9 win against Houston as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. Baltimore has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. The Ravens did gain 500 yards of offense against the Vikings but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 adds in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are scoring 23.0 Points-Per-Game in their three previous games away from home — and they have only topped that number once this season. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. Miami has played 38 of their last 58 games Under the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. Tua Tagovailoa will be active tonight but he is not expected to start with his finger injury still limiting the throws he can make in this offense. Jacoby Brissett passed for 244 yards against the Texans — yet the Dolphins managed only 262 total yards due to their anemic rushing attack. The Dolphins score only 15.5 PPG at home with a 273.3 total YPG average.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (113) and the Miami Dolphins (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2) has won five of their last six games with their 54-29 win at Duke as a 21-point road favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (5-4) has won two of their last three games with their 58-55 win against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 home games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. Led by quarterback Kenny Pickett, the Panthers generated 638 yards of offense against the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Pitt returns home where they are scoring 46.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging 569.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +23.4 PPG due to a defense that is only allowing 22.6 PPG. Despite the Panthers being coached by a defensive guru in Pat Narduzzi, they are thriving due to the play of their offense and the emergence of Pickett at quarterback. Pitt has averaged 562.3 total YPG in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last three contests. We had North Carolina last Saturday in their victory against the Demon Deacons — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against an ACC foe and in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are winless in three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games. The weak link for North Carolina is their defense that allows 35.3 PPG and 404.3 total YPG on the road. The Tar Heels do not disrupt the quarterback — they rank 109th in the Pass Rush Pressure Rate. They also don’t protect their quarterback enough with their Havoc Rate Allowed that ranks 106th — and Narduzzi’s defense is 17th in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB North Carolina-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 15-10 upset victory at Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (3-5) has lost three in a row with their 33-22 loss to San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing better football due to improved play from their offensive line. After not rushing for more than 75 yards in their first four games, the Steelers have rushed for at least 115 yards in their three-game winning streak while averaging 127 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Rookie running back Najee Harris has been the main beneficiary as he has gained 294 rushing yards in these last three games. They have averaged 368.7 total YPG during their winning streak — a +38.4 net YPG bump over their season average. The improved rushing attack has taken some of the pressure off Ben Roethlisberger. While the veteran quarterback is in decline, he still can be effective in leading the passing game. He has not thrown an interception in 99 straight passes. Pittsburgh should build off their momentum tonight. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team continues to be built around their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 16.3 PPG and 329.7 total YPG. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 10th in the NFL in the DVOA metric by the Football Outsiders. They rank 6th in DVOA run defense which will offer a challenge to the Bears’ offense. Chicago is 30th in offensive DVOA and last rushing DVOA. Rookie Justin Fields may have played his best game as a pro last week against the 49ers. He completed 19 of 27 passes but for just 175 yards. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor finally got Fields using his legs in some designed run plays as he gained 103 yards on ten carries. Head coach Matt Nagy was not on the sidelines last week due to his testing positive for COVID. Nagy is back with the team tonight — so he may impose the offensive game plan for Patrick Mahomes he borrowed from Andy Reid when getting the Bears coaching gig. After failing with Mitchell Trubisky, Nagy has not gotten much from Fields. The former Ohio State star is completing only 59.5% of his passes and averaging 123.9 passing YPG. He has only thrown three touchdown passes but he has seven interceptions. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after a loss at home. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is averaging only 15.4 PPG and 264.0 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 10.8 PPG and 233.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The play of the Chicago defense is a concern tonight as well with linebacker Khalil Mack out with a foot injury and safety Eddie Jackson doubtful with a hamstring. The loss of Mack particularly stings since he is vital to the Bears’ run defense. Even with Mack, the Bears rank 18th in DVOA run defense. Chicago allowed 467 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games under Tomlin. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost three in a row with their 33-22 loss to San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 15-10 upset victory at Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss - and they have palled 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Chicago has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Bears have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Chicago is 30th in offensive DVOA and last rushing DVOA. Rookie Justin Fields may have played his best game as a pro last week against the 49ers. He completed 19 of 27 passes but for just 175 yards. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor finally got Fields using his legs in some designed run plays as he gained 103 yards on ten carries. Head coach Matt Nagy was not on the sidelines last week due to his testing positive for COVID. Nagy is back with the team tonight — so he may impose the offensive game plan for Patrick Mahomes he borrowed from Andy Reid when getting the Bears coaching gig. After failing with Mitchell Trubisky, Nagy has not gotten much from Fields. The former Ohio State star is completing only 59.5% of his passes and averaging 123.9 passing YPG. He has only thrown three touchdown passes but he has seven interceptions. The Bears have played 4 straight Unders after passing for no more than 150 yards in their last game. Chicago is averaging only 15.4 PPG and 264.0 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 10.8 PPG and 233.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record, the Bears have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Pittsburgh has seen the Under go 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. The Steelers generated 370 yards against the Browns last week — and the Under is 36-14-2 in their last 52 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Under is also 20-8-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 29 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team continues to be built around their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 16.3 PPG and 329.7 total YPG. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 10th in the NFL in the DVOA metric by the Football Outsiders. They rank 6th in DVOA run defense which will offer a challenge to the Bears’ offense. The Steelers return home where the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games when favored — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football — and Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Chicago-Pittsburgh ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-2) has won four straight games after their 34-31 upset win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-1) has won four straight games after their 38-22 win at Houston as a 17-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tennessee has scored at least 24 points in seven straight games — but they have given up at least 27 points five times already this season. The Over is 21-8-1 in the Titans’ last 31 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after a point spread victory. The Tennessee offense will be learning to live life without running back Derrick Henry for an extended period given his foot injury. The reports this week indicate that Adrian Peterson looked good in practice after he was signed to take on the rushing duties — he should be at least serviceable. I do expect the Titans to lean more on their passing attack. Wide receiver Julio Jones is healthy again — and the reports I am seeing indicate that wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to play tonight despite being limited in practice this week. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is 6-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 8 games after a straight-up win. Matthew Stafford completed 21 of 32 passes for 305 yards with three touchdown passes in the win against the Texans last week — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Rams have the best offense in the NFL according to the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders — and they are averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. They are scoring 30.6 PPG — and they have scored at least 26 points in seven of their eight games. But Los Angeles gave up 279 passing yards to Houston last week — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. The Rams are allowing 23.5 PPG and a 412.0 total YPG in their four games at home. Their run defense ranks 18th in DVOA — so I do think Tennessee will still be able to run the ball even without Henry.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 15-5-1 in the Titans’ last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-1) has won four straight games after their 38-22 win at Houston as a 17-point favorite last week.
Tennessee (6-2) has won four straight games after their 34-31 upset win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles did not cover the 17-point spread despite the victory by two touchdowns last week — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. And while the Rams have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Rams have the best offense in the NFL according to the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders — and they are averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. They are scoring 30.6 PPG — and they have scored at least 26 points in seven of their eight games. Now they will be playing a Titans defense that has allowed at least 27 points five times. Los Angeles leads the NFL in sacks — and they added Von Miller this week in a swap with Denver at the trade deadline. Will Tennessee be able to score into the 20s without Derrick Henry who is out with a foot injury? Ryan Tannehill’s Passer Rating drops by 20 points in his Titans’ career in games when he did not have Henry available in the backfield. After pulling off three straight upsets against Buffalo and Kansas City before the Colts last week, the bubble may be about ready to burst for this team. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Titans have not allowed more than 83 rushing yards in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in two straight games. These nice run defense numbers may say more about the lack of a rushing attack from Buffalo and Kansas City than it does about the effectiveness of the Tennessee run defense. That unit ranks 28th in DVOA in run defense.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 19-13 upset loss to Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-2) has won three games in a row after their 36-27 upset win against Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are missing key players on offense. For the Falcons, it is wide receiver Calvin Ridley who is out indefinitely for personal reasons. With Julio Jones gone from the team, quarterback Matt Ryan is suddenly without reliable weapons at wide receiver. They gained only 213 yards last week against the Panthers. Atlanta has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss to an NFC South rival. To compound matters for the Falcons’ offense, Ryan is dealing with a hand injury after getting cleated last week. He has stitches in his hand from that mishap which may impact his throwing. The Atlanta defense is improving under defensive coordinator Dean Pees. They have held their last three opponents to 22.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Falcons have also not allowed an opposing rusher to gain at least 100 yards on the ground in 23 straight games — so Alvin Kamara may not be able to carry the Saints offense with his rushing. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight Unders after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The New Orleans offense will be quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian given the season-ending knee injury to Jameis Winston. The Saints’ offense has already been limited this season with Michael Thomas on the shelf — and the wide receiver will not be returning this season after a mishap in his recovery. New Orleans is averaging 25.1 PPG but they rank 29th in the NFL by averaging only 305.9 total YPG and second-to-last with a 180.9 passing YPG mark. They are last in the league with just 15 Big Plays on offense this year. The Saints defense surrendered 421 yards last week to the Buccaneers — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans holds their opponents to just 18.3 PPG and 344.3 total YPG. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC South opponents. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (399) and the Washington Huskies (400). THE SITUATION: Oregon (7-1) has won three straight games after their 52-29 win against Colorado as a 24.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (4-4) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset win at Stanford as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington held the Cardinal to just 261 total yards in the victory. The Huskies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Washington only gives up 146.9 passing YPG this season — the lowest mark in the nation. The Huskies give up 18.9 PPG and 325.4 total YPG — ranking tied for 18th and 24th in the nation. But the Washington offense is limited after scoring just 19.3 PPG and averaging 315.7 total YPG in their last three games. The Huskies have played 5 straight Unders against winning teams. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they generated 568 total yards against the Buffaloes last week, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Ducks defense has not allowed more than 117 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game.  They are holding their opponents to just 3.5 rushing Yards-Per-Carry which will put pressure on Huskies’ quarterback Dylan Morris to move the ball with his arm. Oregon has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Weather will play a role in Seattle tonight — rain is expected with winds at 14 MPH and gusting to 22 MPH. Both of these teams already have limited vertical passing attacks — so the weather will allow both defenses to cheat another defender in the box. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at Washington. 10* CFB Oregon-Washington ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (399) and the Washington Huskies (400). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) enters this game coming off three 28-23 upset victory at Nebraska as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday. Michigan State (8-0) comes off a 37-33 upset win at home against Michigan as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue committed five turnovers two weeks ago in a loss to Wisconsin — but they turned the turnover tables on the Cornhuskers last week by generating a +4 net turnover margin. The Boilermakers handed Iowa their first loss of the season by a 24-7 score in Iowa City three weeks ago. Purdue returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog. The Boilermakers are stout on defense. They hold their opponents to just 17.1 Points-Per-Game and 313.8 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking tied for 10th and 17th in the nation respectively. They also rank 16th in the nation by averaging 307.0 passing  YPG. This combination of defense and a potent passing attack makes them a dangerous underdog. Purdue has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They may be catching Michigan State on a hangover after their emotional comeback victory against their hated rival Michigan last week. The Spartans were trailing by two touchdowns in the second half before outscoring the Wolverines by a 23-3 margin to pull out the victory. Michigan State has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Spartans defeated Michigan despite getting outgained by -157 net yards. Michigan State surrendered 552 yards in that game. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense. Opponents average 424.6 total YPG against them — ranking 101st in the nation. Sparty is particularly vulnerable against the pass as they rank 127th in the nation by allowing 300.5 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State ranks third in the first College Football Playoff poll which may add some pressure on them for this game as they go from feisty overachievers under second-year head coach Mel Tucker to controlling their destiny to reach the playoffs. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at Purdue. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (4-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 44-34 loss at Notre Dame as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 45-7 victory at home against Duke as a 16-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Demon Deacons raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead last week against the Blue Devils — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after taking at least a 24 point lead at halftime of their last game. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. Quarterback Sam Hartman had another big game as he completed 24 of 37 passes for 402 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that generated 677 total yards. But Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Turnover luck has helped the Demon Deacons cause as they have not committed more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in five straight games. Wake Forest has benefited from a soft schedule up to this point. Only Virginia and Army are FBS opponents that they have beaten that currently have winning records. While the Demon Deacons score plenty of points, that has overshadowed their suspect play on defense. They rank 99th in the FBS by allowing 421.5 total YPG. They have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.3 PPG and 474.4 total YPG. In their three road games, they have allowed their home hosts to score 36.7 PPG and average 538.3 total YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass (with their home games at Truist Field being played on field turf). North Carolina may possess the most potent offense that they placed all season. The Tar Heels are 12th in the nation by averaging 482.8 total YPG. Sam Howell completed 24 of 31 passes for 341 yards and added another 101 yards on the ground in their loss in South Bend. North Carolina has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. The Tar Heels did outgain the Fighting Irish last week by 39 yards by generating 564 yards of offense. They should be able to move the ball at will against the Demon Deacons. This team began the season with National Championship aspirations but an opening loss to Virginia Tech changed their realistic expectations. Ruining Wake Forest’s perfect season would give this group something to hang their hats on. North Carolina has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Tar Heels return home where they are 4-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.2 PPG. They average 45.2 PPG and 512.5 total YPG at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest could not stop Howell and the Tar Heels’ offense last season — they lost in Chapel Hill by a 59-53 score. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at North Carolina. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 34-31 upset loss in overtime to Tennessee on Sunday. New York (2-5) comes off a 31-24 upset win against Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Perhaps the best thing for this Indianapolis team is to get back on the field as soon as possible after the sting of losing their second game this season to their AFC South divisional rival in the Titans. Head coach Frank Reich should have his team ready to go in a must-win game for them to keep their playoff hopes alive. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home. They are also 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Colts got lulled away from their rushing attack in that game as they ran the ball only 20 times for 83 yards. Expect more touches for Jonathan Taylor tonight — and Indy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Colts should have a big edge in the turnover battle which should help them cover a double-digit spread. Indianapolis ranks second in the NFL with a +8 net turnover margin — and the Jets are 30th in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. Enter Mike White who will be making his second career start on a short week. He surprised in his first career start on Sunday by completing 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes — but he did throw two interceptions. The former Western Kentucky quarterback lived off short passes against the Bengals -- running back Michael Carter had 14 targets with nine receptions and running back Ty Johnson had another five catches from six targets out of the backfield. Jamison Crowder also had eight catches for 84 yards coming mostly from short routes. With White under center again this week since Zach Wilson is still injured, the Colts’ defense will adjust to this short game and dare White to throw the ball vertically down the field — and the Jets will once again be without their best deep threat in Corey Davis. Indianapolis has the fifth-best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they lead the league in Run Defense DVOA. The Jets are 28th in DVOA Offense with their best work coming from their rushing attack that ranks 19th in DVOA — but running the ball against the Colts will be problematic as they hold their guests to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. New York scores only 16.3 PPG and averages 235.6 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 11.8 PPG and 235.6 total YPG in their four road games. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are just 9-23-3 ATS in their last 35 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. New York’s defense is an issue after allowing their last three opponents to score 37.3 PPG and generate 439.7 total YPG. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New York goes back on the road on this short week where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -19.7 PPG. They allow their home hosts to score 31.5 PPG. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 14-33-4 ATS in their last 51 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and the Colts are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) comes off a 31-24 upset win against Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indianapolis (3-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 34-31 upset loss in overtime to Tennessee on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Bengals to just 318 total yards in the upset win. New York has played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Mike White surprised in his first career start by completing 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes. The former Western Kentucky quarterback lived off short passes against the Bengals -- running back Michael Carter had 14 targets with nine receptions and running back Ty Johnson had another five catches from six targets out of the backfield. Jamison Crowder also had eight catches for 84 yards coming mostly from short routes. With White under center again this week since Zach Wilson is still injured, the Colts’ defense will adjust to this short game and dare White to throw the ball vertically down the field — and the Jets will once again be without their best deep threat in Corey Davis. Indianapolis has the fifth-best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they lead the league in Run Defense DVOA. The Jets are 28th in DVOA Offense with their best work coming from their rushing attack that ranks 19th in DVOA — but running the ball against the Colts will be problematic as they hold their guests to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. New York scores only 16.3 PPG and averages 235.6 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 11.8 PPG and 235.6 total YPG in their four road games. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New York has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. And while rookie head coach Robert Saleh’s team has attempted 42 and 49 passes in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. Saleh is a defensive head coach after serving for years as the defensive coordinator in San Francisco — he does not want this game on the road to get into a shootout. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Colts have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Indy offense will be without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton once again as he goes through the concussion protocol. In their 3-point loss to the Titans, the Colts gained only 307 total yards. They only average 346.3 total YPG in their four games at home. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 14 points — and they have played 4 straight Unders as a favorite laying more than 10 points in all situations. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (3-4) has won two in a row after their 24-17 upset win at Ball State as a 3.5-point underdog on October 23rd. Ohio (1-7) has lost three in a row after their 34-27 loss to Kent State as a 5-point underdog on October 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks held the Cardinals to just 329 total yards in that victory. Miami (OH) has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Additionally, the RedHawks have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory against a conference rival. Miami did get quarterback Brett Gabbert back last week after the third-year sophomore quarterback missed the previous two games to injury. While he completed 20 of 24 passes in the win, he is still only completing 58.8% of his passes this season. The RedHawks are scoring only 21.1 PPG — and that average drops to just 17.2 PPG along with a 319.2 total YPG mark in their three previous road games with Gabbert the starter in two of those games. Gabbert is an upgrade over fourth-year sophomore A.J. Mayer  — but Brett is not the prospect that his brother, Blaine, was. Miami (OH) has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The RedHawks have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored. Ohio has palled 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss. And while the Bobcats generated 457 yards in their loss to the Golden Flashes, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This has been a lost season for the Bobcats after the surprise retirement of head coach Frank Solich in July after serving as the head coach for the program for 16 years. Offensive coordinator Tim Albin inked a four-year deal to become the new head coach — but this team is scoring only 21.1 PPG while averaging just 360.1 total YPG. Ohio wants to run the football — they average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Sophomore Kurtis Rourke, another younger brother of a quarterback with higher stature as he follows Nathan’s career as the Bobcats’ signal-caller, is overseeing an offense that averages just 166.8 passing YPG, 115th in the nation. Rourke will probably struggle against this RedHawks team that ranks 15th in the nation in Havoc Rate. Ohio stays at home where they have played13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will be chilly in Athens tonight with temperates dropping into the 30s as the game goes on. Cold weather does not help the passing game — especially when the players are not the best in the world in adapting to harder footballs. Ohio has played 4 straight Unders against Mid-American Conference opponents — and the Under is 10-3-1 in Miami (OH)’s last 14 games in November. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-3 upset win against Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week. Kansas City (3-4) looks to rebound from their 27-3 upset loss at Tennessee last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Many observers expect the Chiefs to take out the frustration of their 24-point loss last week — but Kansas City just needs a win more than they need to make any statements. Be careful laying double-digit points with a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Kansas City will probably still make the playoffs — but they have some fundamental problems they need to address. Their defense cannot stop anyone — they are allowing 29.0 Points-Per-Game. Using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the second-to-worst defense in the league while ranking 31st in both run defense and pass defense. The Titans gained 369 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. To make matters worse, Kansas City is turning the ball over too much. Patrick Mahomes has nine interceptions already this season. Mahomes is great — but he is trying to do too much behind a rebuilding offensive line. He might have been lulled into thinking he can consistently avoid trouble after only throwing six interceptions last year. He was very fortunate last season since he had another eight likely interceptions that were dropped by the defensive player. Kansas City has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in at least four straight games. The Chiefs have attempted at least 47 passes in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. Kansas City needs to run the ball more — we will see if that happens. They only ran the ball 13 times last week for 77 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Chiefs return home where they have lost two of their three games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. New York will be confident entering this game after playing their best game of the season last week. But with just two wins on the season, there is little room for complacency for this group in the second season under head coach Joe Judge. They held the Panthers to just 173 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The Giants have been a surprisingly reliable team on the road with Daniel Jones at QB. New York has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games as an underdog including twelve of the last sixteen of those circumstances. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5. or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when laying the points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (277) and the Kansas City Chiefs (278). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-3 upset win against Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week. Kansas City (3-4) looks to rebound from their 27-3 upset loss at Tennessee last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They should be playing catch-up in this game — this will not be a defensive struggle. The Giants are scoring 19.9 PPG — and they see that mark rise to a 25.3 PPG mark in their three games on the road this season. While the Chiefs are just 1-2 at home this season, New York has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Giants have also played 4 of their last 6 games on the road Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 15 points in their last game. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while Kansas City allowed 266 passing yards to the Titans last week en route to their 369 total yards of offense, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after giving up at least 350 total yards in their last contest. The Chiefs' defense cannot stop anyone — they are allowing 29.0 Points-Per-Game. Using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the second-to-worst defense in the league while ranking 31st in both run defense and pass defense.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total when the Total is set at 45.5 or higher. I think the Giants score at least 20 points with the Chiefs scoring at least 30 points -- so that floor should be enough to cash over tickets. This game looks reminiscent of the Giants’ 44-20 loss at Dallas on October 10th with the Total set at 53 — and the Cowboys’ defense is significantly better than the Kansas City defense. 10* NFL NY Giants-Kansas City ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (275). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-3) has won three of their last four games after their 34-28 win at Carolina in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Dallas (5-1) has won five in a row after their 35-29 win at New England in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: I am assuming that Dak Prescott will play — although his calf injury may limit his ability to scramble and keep him from being close to 100%. If the Cowboys opt to rest him another week and play Cooper Rush at quarterback, that only makes this Minnesota investment more attractive. The Vikings are underrated after three losses all decided by seven points or less. Minnesota is outgaining their opponents by +55.9 net Yards-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after a win by six points or less. In generating 571 yards against the Panthers, the Vikings rushed for 198 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. Kirk Cousins is enjoying a big season that is going mostly under the radar. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes only two interceptions. Minnesota returns home where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Vikings are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games in October. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing a game where at least 50 points were scored. The Cowboys gained 567 yards in that game against the Patriots — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Dallas outgained New England by +232 net yards despite needing overtime to pull out that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards including failing to cover the point spread in five of these last seven circumstances. And while the offense is averaging 7.2 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last three games — a situation made even worse if Rush is their quarterback.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played at Minnesota. Even with a healthy Prescott, I was liking the Vikings in this spot all week. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Dallas Cowboys (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-1) has won five in a row after their 35-29 win at New England in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Minnesota (3-3) has won three of their last four games after their 34-28 win at Carolina in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even if it is Cooper Rush at quarterback tonight, I like the Over. Dak Prescott will go through his pre-game gyration workout to see if he thinks he can give it a go. I suspect he will. But, I am handicapping this game on the assumption that Rush will make his first career NFL start. The former Central Michigan star was a bit of a gunslinger in college — and he has had two weeks to prepare for this game getting all the first-team reps. And offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has had the extra week to prepare a specific game plan to take advantage of his skillset. The Over is 14-3-1 in the Cowboys’ last 18 games after a bye week. Rush has the benefit of throwing to the terrific Dallas wide receivers with CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and the newly healthy Michael Gallup. Left tackle Tyron Smith returns to anchor the offensive line. And the Cowboys still have running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard leading an attack that is generating 164 rushing YPG. The Vikings are allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank just 24th in the league in run defense according to the DVOA metrics used by the Football Outsiders. So while I don’t expect Dallas to score at least 35 points for the fifth time this season if Rush is under center, I do think he can get them in the high-20s. As it is, the Cowboys have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Furthermore, Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. Minnesota should score their share of points against this Cowboys defense that is allowing 24.3 PPG with three of their opponents scoring at least 28 points. Kirk Cousins is enjoying a big season that is going mostly under the radar. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes only two interceptions. He completed 33 of 48 passes against the Panthers for 373 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the offense to 571 total yards. The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. Minnesota has played 5 straight games Over the Total after their bye week.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Cowboys have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total against the NFC. Dallas has also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. I did note that while the news of Prescott’s potential absence moved the Cowboys from being a small favorite to a 3-point dog, the Total barely moved. With either Prescott or Rush at QB, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Dallas Cowboys (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-2) has won two games in a row — both on the road — after a 13-10 win at Seattle as a 6-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay (6-1) has won four in a row after their 38-3 victory against Chicago last Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay benefited from an overwhelmed rookie at quarterback in the Bears Justin Fields who helped them earn a +4 net turnover margin in that game. But the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Now this team goes on the road where they are being outscored this season by -0.6 net Points-Per-Game. Tom Brady and company lost by 10 points in Los Angeles against the Rams before beating New England in overtime by two points and defeating Philadelphia by just six points 2 1/2 weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. The high-powered Patriots offense is scoring only 23.7 PPG in their three road games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been piling up style points against weak competition — they have played Miami, the Eagles, and the Bears in the last three weeks after the Brady versus Bill Belichick overtime thriller in Foxboro that began their winning streak. The Bucs are not at full health with Antonio Brown out at wide receiver and the secondary banged up including last year’s starting cornerbacks, Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting on IR. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, cornerback Richard Sherman, and linebacker Lavonte David are among the players listed as questionable. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games after winning their last two games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has transformed this team into a defense-first group that is risk-averse on offense. The Saints defense is allowing only 16.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the Football Outsiders DVOA metric for defense. Jameis Winston has been underappreciated at quarterback this season — he has not turned the ball over in his six of his games and he has 10 touchdown passes without an interception in the red zone. The organization made a savvy trade this week by re-acquiring veteran running back Mark Ingram from Houston to spell Alvin Kamara who cannot keep touching the ball 30 times per game. Now New Orleans returns to the Big Easy for just the second time all season given a front-loaded road schedule compounded by them playing their opening game in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. The Saints have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games as an underdog including seven of their last eight games. And in their last 9 home games as an underdog, New Orleans has covered the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints' defense did a good job of containing Brady in their three games last year. While the Buccaneers beat New Orleans in the playoffs last year by a 30-20 score as a 2.5-point underdog, they lost both regular-season games while scoring just 26 combined points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Buccaneers — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (270) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (269). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in their 34-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog. New England (3-4) has won two of their last three games after their 54-13 win against the New York Jets as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should respond with a vengeance after getting embarrassed by the Ravens. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after their bye week. The team is getting healthier with linebacker Drue Tranquill and safety Nasir Adderley returning to action and running back Austin Ekeler expected to be active for this game. They return home where they are scoring 30.7 PPG and generating 427.0 total YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored. The Chargers are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October. New England dominated the Jets last week — but all their wins have been against rookie quarterbacks in Zach Jones twice and Davis Mills. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are also 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers’ Justin Herbert is no rookie any longer — and he will be motivated to exact revenge from the 45-0 thumping Bill Belichick and the Patriots exacted on him and his team on December 6th last year. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Los Angeles Chargers (270) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (264). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-3) has won two games in a row after their 23-20 win in overtime against Seattle as a 5.5-point favorite back on Monday Night Football on October 17th. Cleveland (4-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 17-14 win against Denver as a 1.5-point favorite back on Thursday Night Football on October 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win at home. The Steelers are undervalued right now because Ben Roethlisberger is underrated at this point in his career. While Big Ben’s fantasy value has declined as he continues to age, he is a savvy veteran under center who can still move the offense when he has to. Pittsburgh upset Buffalo to begin the season. Roethlisberger’s problems have more to do with the Steelers' offensive line — but that unit is improving which also helps rookie running back Najee Harris make an impact on the game. Pittsburgh still has a top-ten defense — they rank ninth in Football Outsiders DVOA metric and they also rank ninth in run defense DVOA. The Steelers are dangerous underdogs under head coach Mike Tomlin — they are 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 games as the dog while covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the over/under in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Baker Mayfield will be under center again after backup Case Keenum looked just as capable in leading the offense against the Broncos — but he is still not at full strength with that bum shoulder. The Browns stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total in the 42.5-49 point range. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Roethlisberger has a 24-3-1 straight-up record against the Browns in his career after growing up in the Cleveland suburbs. Cleveland is just 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 games against AFC North competition. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (5-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 31-30 loss at Miami (FL) as a 3.5-point favorite. Louisville (4-3) has won four in a row after a 28-14 win against Boston College as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK MINUS THE POINTS: NC State suffered their second upset loss this season with their loss to the Hurricanes. But the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. NC State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Quarterback Devin Leary completed 24 of 42 passes for 310 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Leary is completing 65% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Wolfpack also has a stout defense. They are fourth in opponent’s Rush Success Rate — and they are allowing only 93.3 rushing YPG which is the tenth lowest in the nation. NC State is also 22nd in the nation in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. They return home where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.0 PPG. They are holding their guests to just 13.8 PPG and 290.3 total YPG — and they are scoring 37.8 PPG and 458.5 total YPG at home. The Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in all 6 games at home against ACC opponents. Louisville held the Eagles to just 266 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite that good effort, the Cardinals are still allowing 27.0 PPG ranking 76th in the nation — and they have given up at least 30 points four times this season. They lack a pass rush to put pressure on Leary. They also go on the road where they allow their home hosts to average 34.3 PPG and 507.7 YPG. Louisville is just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games on the road — and they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Cardinals are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: NC State did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. Louisville committed four turnovers last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after committing at least four turnovers in their last game. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). THE SITUATION: Florida (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 49-42 upset loss at LSU as a 12.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Georgia (7-0) remained unbeaten with their 30-13 win against Kentucky two Saturdays ago as a 21.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Turnovers did Florida in on the road in Baton Rouge two weeks ago. The Gators suffered a -4 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games away from home after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The ex-factor for head coach Dan Mullen is freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson who completed 10 of 19 passes for 167 yards while adding 37 rushing yards with a touchdown on the ground. The bye week should allow them time to develop more plays tailored for the exciting player who is averaging 12.6 Yards-Per-Carry and 18.7 Yards-Per-Completion. Florida gained 488 total yards against the Tigers in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Gators have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival. Additionally, Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 20 games after a bye week, the Gators have covered the point spread in 14 of these games. Georgia dominated the Wildcats two weeks ago by averaging 8.9 Yards-Per-Play while holding them to 3.5 YPP — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP and limiting their last opponent to 3.75 YPP in their last game. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in five of their seven games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Georgia is outstanding on defense as they have not allowed more than 13 points in a game all season — and they have held their last five opponents to 96 or fewer rushing yards. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Georgia has not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Quarterback J.T. Daniels is available to play this afternoon — but that may add some chaos into the equation for the favorites who have been riding senior Stetson Bennett for most of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has the pressure of being the number one ranked team in the nation — and they have never been favored by more than 13 points against Florida in program history. Their 10-7 opening week win against Clemson does not look nearly as impressive two months later. The Gators will have the confidence that they can pull the upset. After playing Alabama close in the SEC Championship Game last year, Florida lost to the Crimson Tide by a 31-29 score as a 14-point underdog back on September 18th this season. And the Gators upset this Bulldogs team last year by a 44-28 score as a 3-point favorite in last year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. 10* CFB Georgia-Florida CBS-TV Special with the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (3-4) return to action on a four-game losing streak after their 21-7 upset loss at Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Illinois (3-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-18 upset win at Penn State in nine overtimes as a 24.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The bye week could not come soon enough for head coach Greg Schiano in his second year back coaching the Rutgers program. Injuries had hit both sides of the ball including quarterback Noah Vedral who played against Northwestern despite a nagging arm injury. The Scarlet Knights have already endured most of the brutal part of the Big Ten schedule against the powers in the East Division having played Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State during their recent losing streak. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And while they managed only 222 total yards against the Wildcats, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. The Scarlet Knights thrive at defending against the run — they rank 21st in the nation in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. Illinois is one-dimensional on offense running the ball 58% of the time. They lost quarterback Artur Sitkowksi to a season-ending broken arm in the upset win against the Nittany Lions last week. The former Rutgers transfer took the starting job away from Brandon Peters early in the season. Peters, a former transfer from Michigan, is completing under 49% of his passes while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt this season. He has not thrown for more than 200 yards this season. There is a reason he left the Wolverines program. The Fighting Illini have passed for just 280 combined yards in their last four games. This group may be due for an emotional letdown after surviving the 2-point contest that their overtime game with Penn State devolved into. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit road underdog. The Fighting Illini ran the ball 67 times for 357 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after rushing for at least 300 yards. They only gained 38 yards in the air last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. They host this game at Memorial Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 42 or less.

FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Brett Bielema caught Penn State relying on quarterback Sean Clifford who was not 100% dealing with an undisclosed injury that clearly limited his mobility. Rutgers may be winless in Big Ten play — but they swept their three non-conference games including an impressive victory at Syracuse. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (107) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (108). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) won their sixth game in a row with their 24-10 victory against Washington as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (7-0) won their seventh straight game to start the season with their 31-5 win against Houston as a 20.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has experienced two big losses themselves this week with wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard both entering COVID protocol this week. The duo has caught more than 50% of Rodgers’ passes this season. But Rodgers has been in this situation before — and he does what it takes to keep moving the football down the field. In his six games played without his favorite target in Adams, Rodgers has completed over 70% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just one interception. Even more interesting, while Rodgers averages 246 passing Yards-Per-Game with Adams playing, he averages 310 passing YPG in these six games without Adams. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is expected back at wide receiver after he has been out with a hamstring injury — he joins Randall Cobb, Equanimeous St. Brown, and tight end Robert Tonyan as reliable targets. This shapes up to be a big game for Aaron Jones not only running the football but catching the ball out of the backfield. Forcing Rodgers to be more creative in finding other targets and doing more with his legs is not necessarily a bad thing. This is a much different challenge for the quarterback who was threatening to sit out the season to force a trade in the summer. The same competitive juices that had him taunting Chicago fans with “I still own you” should motivate him tonight. As it is, the Packers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They are also 39-19-2 ATS in their last 61 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Green Bay is allowing only 316.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. Aaron Rodgers is second in the NFL over the last two seasons with 15 victories as the starting quarterback on the road. The Packers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road — including four of their last five. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona is the lone undefeated team in the league — but I think this speaks more to the opponents they have drawn rather than a significant improvement in their defense. They faced two rookie backup quarterbacks last week in rookie Davis Mills with the Texans and Trey Lance with San Francisco three weeks ago. They caught a Cleveland offense ravaged with injuries at running back, the offensive line (both starting tackles were out), and at wide receiver two weeks ago. They even got the Los Angeles Rams flat in a letdown situation after they had just upset Tampa Bay the previous week. Throw in a third rookie quarterback in Week Three when they played Trevor Lawrence at Jacksonville — that is what Arizona has faced since a narrow 34-33 win at home against Minnesota in Week Two. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win by 21 or more points at home in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 home games following a victory at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored. The Cardinals suffered a big loss Wednesday night with the announcement that not only would J.J. Watt miss this game with a shoulder injury but he needs shoulder surgery that will keep him out the rest of the season. Watt has lost a step or two — but he is a savvy veteran who was drawing tons of attention so this is a big loss. Arizona held the hapless Texans to just 160 total yards last week — but they are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC opponents — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on Thursday Night Football. In Rodgers, We Trust to keep it close tonight. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (107) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (107) and the Arizona Cardinals (108). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) won their sixth game in a row with their 24-10 victory against Washington as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (7-0) won their seventh straight game to start the season with their 31-5 win against Houston as a 20.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have covered the point spread in five straight games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Arizona outgained the outmatched Texans by +237 yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 net yards. The Cardinals offense has been nearly unstoppable behind Kyler Murray who is healthy and continuing to improve in his third season in the league. Murray started fast last year as well but he appeared slowed by injury in the second half of the season which restricted his mobility. With the additions of wide receivers A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore, Murray has more reliable targets than just DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk this year — and the team just added tight end, Zach Ertz, in a trade from Philadelphia who was overjoyed with all the green grass he had when running routes amidst all this talent. The Cardinals have scored at least 31 points in six of their seven games this season. The play of the Arizona defense has been the bigger surprise as they have not allowed more than 20 points in five straight games. I think this speaks more to the opponents they have drawn rather than a significant improvement in their defense. They faced two rookie backup quarterbacks last week in rookie Davis Mills with the Texans and Trey Lance with San Francisco three weeks ago. They caught a Cleveland offense ravaged with injuries at running back, the offensive line (both starting tackles were out), and at wide receiver two weeks ago. They even got the Los Angeles Rams flat in a letdown situation after they had just upset Tampa Bay the previous week. Throw in a third rookie quarterback in Week Three when they played Trevor Lawrence at Jacksonville — that is what Arizona has faced since a narrow 34-33 win at home against Minnesota in Week Two. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held Houston to just 160 total yards and only 118 yards in the air, they have played 5 straight Overs after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The Cardinals suffered a big loss Wednesday night with the announcement that not only would J.J. Watt miss this game with a shoulder injury but he needs shoulder surgery that will keep him out the rest of the season. Watt has lost a step or two — but he is a savvy veteran who was drawing tons of attention so this is a big loss. Green Bay has experienced two big losses themselves this week with wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard both entering COVID protocol this week. The duo has caught more than 50% of Rodgers’ passes this season. But Rodgers has been in this situation before — and he does what it takes to keep moving the football down the field. In his six games played without his favorite target in Adams, Rodgers has completed over 70% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just one interception. Even more interesting, while Rodgers averages 246 passing Yards-Per-Game with Adams playing, he averages 310 passing YPG in these six games without Adams. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is expected back at wide receiver after he has been out with a hamstring injury — he joins Randall Cobb, Equanimeous St. Brown, and tight end Robert Tonyan as reliable targets. This shapes up to be a big game for Aaron Jones not only running the football but catching the ball out of the backfield. Forcing Rodgers to be more creative in finding other targets and doing more with his legs is not necessarily a bad thing. The Packers were outlined by -126 net yards in their win against the Football Team last week — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Over the Total after being outgained by at least 100 net yards. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs as a road underdog. Despite the Packers allowing only 20.9 PPG this season, they rank 24th in the Football Outsiders DVOA defensive metric.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona should once again score into the 30s with Rodgers playing catch-up to try to keep his team in the game. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (107) and the Arizona Cardinals (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-4) has lost two straight games and four of their last five after their 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 33-22 victory at Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on October 10th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle started slowly against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football last week as they went into the locker room trailing by a 14-0 deficit. But the Seahawks remained resilient to outscore Pittsburgh in the second half by a 20-6 score to force overtime. Geno Smith was solid under center as the proverbial “game manager.” He completed 23 of 32 passes for 209 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He did lose the football in overtime paving the way for the Steelers’ winning field goal — but that play had a lot more to do with the greatness of linebacker T.J. Watt than it did Smith making a mistake. Smith now has 32 career starts in the NFL under his belt. He will be supported by a Seattle rushing attack that gets former first-round pick, Rashaad Penny, back from injury tonight. Alex Collins was very effective last week as the lead back for the Seahawks as he ran the ball 20 times for 101 yards with a touchdown. While he has been slowed in practice all week with a groin injury, head coach Pete Carroll says he is “ready to go” tonight. This is a “gotta have it” game for Seattle with four losses in their first six games. The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss with seven-point spread covers in their last ten games after getting beat in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. We had Seattle last week. One of my arguments was the absence of Russell Wilson would actually help the defense since there would be less pressure to “Let Russ Cook.” The Seahawks went into that game averaging just 25:16 minutes per game on offense. The bad defensive numbers the team was putting up were made worse by requiring them to be on the field for almost 35 minutes per game. Seattle did lose the time of possession battle to Pittsburgh last week — but they did hold Pittsburgh to just 345 total yards of offense. The 5.8 Yards-Per-Play they held the Steelers to was half a yard less than the 6.3 YPP their opponents were averaging entering that game. The 20 points allowed in regulation and 345 yards allowed was the Seahawks’ best defensive effort since the opening week of the season when they beat Indianapolis on the road by a 28-16 score. Carroll is happiest when he can run the football to control the time of possession and keep his defense off the field. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. New Orleans returns to action after their bye week having beaten the Football Team despite getting outgained in yardage in that game. The Saints also lost the first down battle by a 26 to 18 margin. New Orleans is 3-2 but they are getting outgained by -58.2 net Yards-Per-Game. The Saints have been outgained in four of their five games this season. They are averaging just 295.2 total Yards-Per-Game with head coach Sean Payton keeping a short leash on quarterback Jameis Winston. New Orleans is running the ball in 54.9% of their plays on offense — and they are averaging only 24 pass attempts per game. Payton is trying to keep Winston from reverting back to his form with Tampa Bay when he was an interception machine. Keeping Winston from making mistakes in the Bomb Cyclone conditions tonight may be impossible. Like last night in Santa Clara, rain is expected all game with winds averaging 18 miles per hour and gusting to 23 miles per hour. Payton will not have his short-yardage specialist Taysom Hill tonight who is out as he recovers from a concussion. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is also still on Injured Reserve leaving the Saints without threats at wide receiver. New Orleans’ elite left tackle, Terron Armstead is also out indefinitely with an elbow injury. Even with the bye week, the Saints continue a challenging stretch of game with this being their second straight and fifth of their first six games away from New Orleans.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football -- and Seattle owns MNF. Not only are the Seahawks 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games on Monday Night Football, but they have won eleven of their thirteen appearances on MNF in the Carroll regime. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (473) and the Seattle Seahawks (474). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 33-22 victory at Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on October 10th. Seattle (2-4) has lost two straight games and four of their last five after their 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Orleans returns to action after their bye week having beaten the Football Team despite getting outgained in yardage in that game. The Saints also lost the first down battle by a 26 to 18 margin. New Orleans is averaging just 295.2 total Yards-Per-Game with head coach Sean Payton keeping a short leash on quarterback Jameis Winston. New Orleans is running the ball in 54.9% of their plays on offense — and they are averaging only 24 pass attempts per game. Payton is trying to keep Winston from reverting back to his form with Tampa Bay when he was an interception machine. Keeping Winston from making mistakes in the Bomb Cyclone conditions tonight may be impossible. Like last night in Santa Clara, rain is expected all game with winds averaging 18 miles per hour and gusting to 23 miles per hour. Payton will not have his short-yardage specialist Taysom Hill tonight who is out as he recovers from a concussion. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is also still on Injured Reserve leaving the Saints without threats at wide receiver. New Orleans’ elite left tackle, Terron Armstead is also out indefinitely with an elbow injury. At is is, the Saints have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also played 5 straight Unders after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. With their first game of the season moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, this will be the Saints’ fifth game away from New Orleans in their first six games of the season. They have played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total. Seattle has played 6 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by six or fewer points. Geno Smith was solid under center as the proverbial “game manager.” He completed 23 of 32 passes for 209 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. We had Seattle last week with one of my arguments was the absence of Russell Wilson would actually help the defense since there would be less pressure to “Let Russ Cook.” The Seahawks went into that game averaging just 25:16 minutes per game on offense. The bad defensive numbers the team was putting up were made worse by requiring them to be on the field for almost 35 minutes per game. Seattle did lose the time of possession battle to Pittsburgh last week — but they did hold Pittsburgh to just 345 total yards of offense. The 5.8 Yards-Per-Play they held the Steelers to was half a yard less than the 6.3 YPP their opponents were averaging entering that game. The 20 points allowed in regulation and 345 yards allowed was the Seahawks’ best defensive effort since the opening week of the season when they beat Indianapolis on the road by a 28-16 score. Carroll is happiest when he can run the football to control the time of possession and keep his defense off the field. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. Seattle returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against NFC rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (473) and the Seattle Seahawks (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (471) and the San Francisco 49ers (472). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 31-17 win against Houston as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-3) comes off their bye week looking to snap a three-game losing streak after a 17-10 loss at Arizona as a 6-point underdog on two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while they have scored 25 and 31 points in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight contests. The offense is without T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell at wide receiver. Right tackle Braden Smith is also out. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been playing better — but perhaps his four straight games without an interception only indicate he is well overdue. The weather forecast calls for a bomb cyclone on the west coast tonight — meaning high winds and perhaps lots of rain. Wentz does not handle adversity very well. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Niners have played 5 straight Unders when coming off their bye week. The San Francisco defense has been stout this season. They are holding their opponents to just 329.8 total YPG — and that mark lowers to 293.5 total YPG when playing at home. Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center for the 49ers tonight — but the high winds will do him no favors in the passing game, especially for a quarterback who throws up his share of wounded ducks even in pristine playing conditions.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. San Francisco has played 4 straight Unders in October. With the rain and wind likely contributing to missed field goals and shoddy passing, expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (471) and the San Francisco 49ers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) comes off their bye week looking to snap a three-game losing streak after a 17-10 loss at Arizona as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago. Indianapolis (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 31-17 win against Houston as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers need a victory desperately in the uber-competitive NFC West after losing at home to Seattle before their loss to the Cardinals. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after losing two in a row to division rivals. Additionally, the 49ers have covered the point spread in their last 3 games after a bye week under head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco is the only team with a losing record in the league to be outgaining their opponents in yardage. They have a +38.4 net YPG mark due to their defense that is holding their opponents to just 329.8 total YPG. And while they are winless at home in their first two games, they have outgained Green Bay and the Seahawks by +84.0 net YPG while holding them to just 293.5 total YPG. They get Jimmy Garoppolo back under center for this game. The main reason why the franchise felt the need to trade up in the draft to select Trey Lance is because of Garoppolo’s injury history. When he is healthy, he is good. Garoppolo has a 24-10 record as a starting quarterback since 2017 with a 98 Passer Rating and a completion percentage of 67%. The Colts average 4.7 Rushing Yards-Per-Carry this season — but the Niners have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. But the Colts have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. This is a tough spot for Indianapolis with them playing their fourth game on the road in their last five games. And with a showdown with Tennessee on deck, the urgency of this game is lessened. Sure, Indy wants to win this game — but having already lost to the Titans earlier this year, being ready to play that game is of higher importance. That could impact the playing time for some of their injured players. As it is, safety Julian Blackman is out for the rest of the season with an Achilles’ injury. Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin is also out tonight. The offense is without T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell at wide receiver. Right tackle Braden Smith is also out. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been playing better — but perhaps his four straight games without an interception only indicate he is well overdue. The weather forecast calls for a bomb cyclone on the west coast tonight — meaning high winds and perhaps lots of rain. Wentz does not handle adversity very well.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (453) and the New York Giants (454). THE SITUATION: Carolina (3-3) has lost three games in a row after their 34-28 loss in overtime against Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-5) has lost two in a row with their 38-11 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have been terrific on defense this season — but they have some things to clean up this week. The Vikings gouged them for 571 total yards including 198 yards on the ground on Sunday. Carolina has played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Unders after giving up at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. The Panthers are sixth in the NFL by allowing 20.2 PPG and they are third in the league by giving up just 308.3 total YPG. Additionally, Carolina leads the NFL with 38% of their opponent’s possessions ending in a three-and-out — and they are 2nd in third-down defense with an opponent conversion rate of 29.6%. The Panthers’ offense misses Christian McCaffrey who is critical in both their ground game and passing attack. Head coach Matt Rhule wants his team running the ball more and relying less on Sam Darnold’s arm after he has thrown six interceptions in his last three games. Expect plenty of rushing attempts from rookie Chuba Hubbard this afternoon. Carolina has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored. The Under is 6-2-1 in New York’s last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Under is 10-3-1 in the Giants’ last 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York gave up 365 yards to the Rams — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Giants are banged up on offense with running back Saquon Barkley and wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney all out with injuries leaving the team thin when it comes to talent at the skill positions. They are scoring only 19.0 PPG — and they return home to the Meadowlands where they are scoring 12.7 PPG and averaging 307.0 YPG. The Under is 6-0-1 in New York’s last 7 games at home — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents. With the Panthers committed to running more and putting less on Darnold’s shoulders against a Giants team ravaged with injuries, expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (453) and the New York Giants (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). THE SITUATION: USC (3-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-26 upset loss at home to Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on October 9th. Notre Dame (5-1) takes the field again after their 32-29 upset win at Virginia Tech as a 1-point underdog on October 9th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC outgained the Utes two weeks ago by seven yards but lost the turnover battle en route to losing the game. The Trojans are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. USC has also covered the pint spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. The Trojans are in transition after firing head coach Clay Helton earlier in the season. Interim head coach Donte Williams is auditioning for a head coaching gig moving forward — and both coordinators have plenty to work for regarding future coaching gigs. USC seems to always be inconsistent — but after losing to Utah, the players should be motivated to play in South Bend against an arch-rival on national television. USC has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Trojans have played three straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 13  of their last 16 road games after playing at least three straight overs. Quarterback Kedon Slovis was banged up earlier in the season — but he is getting healthy again. He completed 33 of 53 passes for 401 yards with two touchdowns against a good Utah defense. The extra week of rest should help — and USC has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a close win by three points or less on the road. That was the Fighting Irish’s third victory this season by just a field goal against mediocre competition after also just getting by Florida State and Toledo before the Hokies. Notre Dame is younger this year — and they are dealing with injuries. This Trojans team has more talent than those three teams they beat by a field goal — USC’s issue is focus. The Irish return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Notre Dame pinned their hopes on Wisconsin grad transfer Jack Coan at quarterback who lost his job to the guy struggling under center for the Badgers now. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: USC has lost by just seven and three points — while covering the point spread — in their previous two encounters when unranked against an Irish team ranked in the top-15. 10* CFB USC-Notre Dame NBC-TV Special with the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State (383) and the Iowa State Cyclones (384). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 33-24 upset win at Texas as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa State (4-2) enters this game coming off a 33-20 win at Kansas State as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys contained the potent Longhorns offense coached by Steve Sarkisian to just 317 total yards last week. This could be the best defensive team under head coach Mike Gundy in Stillwater. Oklahoma State is holding their opponents to just 19.5 Points-Per-Game and 307.2 total Yards-Per-Game this season. They rank ninth in the nation by forcing three-and-outs in 43% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 11th in the nation in run stuff rate and 17th in sack rate. But the typical high-powered Cowboys offense under Gundy has been mostly absent this year. Oklahoma State is scoring only 26.5 PPG this season — and they generate just 363.0 YPG on the road. The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Oklahoma State has played 24 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 18 road games as a road underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Iowa State held Kansas State to just 342 total yards in their road victory in that Big 12 rivalry game. The Under is 24-6-2 in their last 32 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 21-6-1 in their last 28 games after a point spread victory. The Cyclones have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win against a Big 12 rival. Iowa State is allowing only 16.3 PPG and 250.7 total YPG this season — and they have held three of their six opponents to 10 points or less. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Cyclones have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by no more than seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State won last year’s meeting in a relatively low-scoring 24-21 victory in Stillwater back on October 24th. The Under is 19-6-1 in Iowa State’s last 26 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State (383) and the Iowa State Cyclones (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). THE SITUATION: Army (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-14 loss at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (6-0) returns to action after surviving a 40-37 win at Syracuse in overtime on October 9th as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army opened the season winning their first four games before getting upset at Ball State two weeks ago before their challenging trip to Madison to play the Badgers. The Black Knights managed only 266 total yards last week against the stout Wisconsin run defense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Army once again is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as they are averaging 295 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Army returns home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Army also plays tough defense. They are allowing only 20.7 PPG along with 281.7 total YPG — and they have held four of their six opponents to 21 points or less. Army limited Wisconsin to just 310 yards last week. Wake Forest remained unbeaten two weeks ago with their victory at Syracuse despite being outgained by -88 net yards. The Demon Deacons were also outgained by Louisville three weeks ago but also survived that game with a narrow win by a field goal. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less on the road. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 19 of 32 passes for 330 yards against the Orange — but the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last  8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The play of the Wake Forest defense is a significant cause for concern after allowing the Cardinals and Orange to each generate over 500 yards. Both Louisville and Syracuse exposed the Wake Forest run defense by generating 213 and 354 rushing yards. Head coach Dave Clawson does have the extra week to prepare for the unique Army spread triple offense — but how much can be done to fix a defense that is allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry? The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Wake Forest stays on the road for the second straight game where they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in then 52.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Army has been an underdog against a Power Five conference team 9 times since 2016. They have covered the point spread in 7 of these games with two upset victories. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 34-24 upset loss at home to Las Vegas last week as a 5-point favorite. Cleveland (3-3) has lost two in a row after their 37-14 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Before assessing the respective M*A*S*H* units for both teams, the weather forecast hovers over this situation tonight. Rain is expected with winds in the 17 miles-per-hour range with gusts adding another 10 MPH to the air currents at times. This game has “first one to score 20 points wins” written all over it — and I will not be surprised if one of the teams fails to score in double-digits. The wind and rain will impact the passing games for both teams while negatively impacting field goal attempts. If this game featured Dan Marino with his credo: “if it’s snowin’, I’m throwin’”, then I might not worry too much about the weather. But tonight’s game features Teddy Bridgewater (or maybe Drew Lock, especially by the end of the game given Bridgewater’s foot injury) against Case Keenum. And both these head coaches prefer to run the football — so they are not likely to engage in higher-risk passing attacks in these conditions coming off upset losses where they lost the turnover battle by -4 and -3 margins respectively. Who would be the targets anyways? Denver is without wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (Courtland Sutton is healthy but he is more of a possession receiver) and Cleveland looks to be without Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry is still on IR (UPDATE: Landry was activated from IR this afternoon although his effectiveness remains a question -- his availability does not impact this play). Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio wants to get his team back to playing good defense after allowing 426 yards to the Raiders last week. While the Denver defense is banged up (especially at linebacker), they still have Von Miller — and they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Under is also 21-6-1 in the Broncos’ last 28 games after a game where they allowed at least 350 yards. Denver did hold the Raiders to just 86 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Broncos are allowing opposing rushers to average 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry — the Browns will likely struggle to try to run the football without both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at running back given their injuries. Denver goes back on the road where they are allowing only 17.7 PPG and 298.0 total YPG. But they are scoring just 16.7 PPG in their last three games. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Cleveland has played 25 of their last 33 home games Under the Total after a loss at home in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. The Browns only managed 290 total yards last week against the Cardinals' defense. The problem is not just being without Chubb, Hunt, Landry, and probably Beckham. And the problem is not really about Baker Mayfield being out since I consider Case Keenum a quality backup playing under his former offensive coordinator at Minnesota in Kevin Stefanski. The issue is the Browns’ offensive line that was without both starting tackles last week (despite both being listed as questionable on game day — that usually means the player takes the field despite the injury). The news this morning is that left tackle Jedrick Wills will try to play tonight — but right tackle Jack Conklin and center J.C. Tretter are highly questionable. Conklin did not play on Sunday and Tretter did not take part in practice yesterday. Even with Mayfield, Cleveland is scoring only 23.8 PPG at home this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on Thursday night. The Under is 27-13-1 in the Broncos’ last 41 games against AFC opponents. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 34-24 upset loss at home to Las Vegas last week as a 5-point favorite. Cleveland (3-3) has lost two in a row after their 37-14 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an interesting game since both teams enter with similar profiles: both dealing with a ton of injuries, both coming off upset losses, both on multi-game losing streaks, both committed multiple turnovers last week. And the weather is going to be rough with rain and high winds. After conducting the due diligence regarding who should play tonight from the questionables (after getting burned on Sunday with both Cleveland tackles listed as questionable did not play against Arizona; "questionable" in the NFL generally means the player is taking the field), I am not sure the Browns have much of a team out there tonight. It does look like LT Jedrick Wills will play (but the RT and center are doubts), but their offenses consist of quarterback Case Keenum (who I am fine with — but Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater is better) with backup running backs and backup wide receivers (UPDATE: Jarvis Landry was activated from IR this afternoon although his effectiveness remains a question -- his availability does not impact this play) behind a banged-up line. And the defense is banged up (a unit I think was overrated to start the season). The Denver injury situation is not good either (in particular, the linebackers are decimated). But the deciding factor is the team trends -- the Broncos are reliable in these situations and the Browns are awful. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss to an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Broncos suffered a -4 net turnover margin against the Raiders — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. Denver goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. And while the Browns had a -3 net turnover margin against the Cardinals, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Cleveland has the advantage of staying at home on the short week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored. 

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing between Week Five and Week Nine. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 4-point favorite last Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (6-0) remained unbeaten this season by winning their seventh game in their last eighteen since the start of last season with their 52-20 victory at Arkansas State as a 20-point favorite back on October 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State was flat on the road against a Ragin’ Cajuns team motivated to avenge a loss against them last year. We had Louisiana last week in that spot — and that loss sets up a nice situation for the Mountaineers. Head coach Shawn Clark can still have his team in the driver’s seat to win the Sub Belt East Division with a victory tonight. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and in their three losses by at least four touchdowns in program history, they have responded to cover the point spread all 3 times. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Appalachian State returned ten starters and their top seven tacklers from their defense that was 18th in the nation by allowing only 328.8 total YPG. The bigger concerns may be on offense after former Clemson and Duke transfer quarterback Chase Brice may have played the worst game of his career by throwing two interceptions to the Ragin’ Cajuns while completing 15 of 27 passes for only 135 yards. The Mountaineers are banged up at running back as well with Camerun Peoples missing the last two games and Daetrick Harrington and Nate Noel questionable. Former Notre Dame transfer Jahmir Smith is healthy — so Appalachian State still has talent at the position even if all three of those other backs cannot take the field. The Mountaineers rank 20th in the nation in Offensive Success Rate. They should play better. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. And while sophomore quarterback Grayson McCall completed 18 of 23 passes for 365 yards against the Red Wolves — but the Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Coastal Carolina has benefited from a soft early schedule — their wins have come against one FCS program in The Citadel and just one FBS team in Kansas. Their Group of Five campaign so far has been against Massachusetts, UL-Monroe, Buffalo, and then Arkansas State. This is — by far — their biggest test this season after being a two-touchdown favorite or better in their first six games. The Chanticleers are playing their second straight game on the road — and playing in hostile environments is not a normal occurrence for this team that benefited from limited crowds in their road games during the pandemic in their 11-1 season a year ago. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State is not an underdog often when playing at home at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone. The Mountaineers have lost only five times at home since 2015. Appalachian State has covered the point s spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Note to subscribers: due to a clerical mistake on my end, I cannot load my 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month report. The Reasons to Take Over the Total for Buffalo-Tennesse are provided after the Titans Report (and it is a bonus for those purchasing this package). I apologize for the confusion (and my clerical mistake that is not easily rectified) -- Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (276) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (275). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 37-19 win at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week. Buffalo (4-1) has won four in a row with their 38-20 upset win at Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win against an AFC South rival. The Titans did allow 256 passing yards to the Jaguars — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Tennessee has seen at least 51 combined points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Both of those games were on the road — now the Titans return home for just the third time this season. Tennessee has not been a home underdog often in the last few seasons — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Buffalo comes off their triumphant victory against a Chiefs team that beat them in the playoffs last season — but they may be due for an emotional letdown playing their second straight game on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning at least four games in a row. The Buffalo defense has been lauded for its two shutouts this season — yet they were both against backup quarterbacks. The Bills are only allowing 12.8 PPG — but they have played backup quarterbacks in Jacoby Brissett (for the majority of their game with the Dolphins), Taylor Heinecke, and Davis Mills. While I expected the Buffalo defense to be improved this season under head coach Sean McDermott with their influx of rookies on the defensive line and the return of Star Lotulelei and Matt Milano who did not play much (or at all) last season, this was still a middling defense that ranked 16th and 14th in the NFL by allowing 23.4 PPG and 352.5 YPG. The Bills have benefited from a bunch of giveaways during their winning streak. Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions last week with Buffalo enjoying a +4 net turnover margin in that game. The Bills had at least three giveaways in four straight games for a +12 net turnover margin over that span. Not coincidentally, Buffalo lost the turnover battle in their opening game against Pittsburgh in their line loss of the season. They now play a Titans team that has not committed a turnover in two straight games. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tennessee Titans (276) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Hollywood Sports’ 25* NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (275) and the Tennessee Titans (276). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-1) has won four in a row with their 38-20 upset win at Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Tennessee (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 37-19 win at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills generated 436 yards of offense against the Chiefs despite only being on offense for 27:35 minutes in that game. Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Over is also 14-5-1 in their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. But Buffalo also gave up 392 yards in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills’ defense has been lauded for its two shutouts this season — yet they were both against backup quarterbacks. Buffalo is only allowing 12.8 PPG — but they have played backup quarterbacks in Jacoby Brissett (for the majority of their game with the Dolphins), Taylor Heinecke, and Davis Mills. While I expected the Bills’ defense to be improved this season under head coach Sean McDermott with their influx of rookies on the defensive line and the return of Star Lotulelei and Matt Milano who did not play much (or at all) last season, this was still a middling defense that ranked 16th and 14th in the NFL by allowing 23.4 PPG and 352.5 YPG. Now this team stays on the road where they have scored 37 PPG in their last six games going back to last season. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. Tennessee has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and the Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread win. Led by Derrick Henry, the Titans rushed for 184 yards last week — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tennessee gained 368 yards last week against the Jaguars — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Titans gave up a whopping 4554 yards to Jacksonville in that game — and they have then played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tennessee is allowing 26.0 PPG and 377.4 total YPG. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total when an underdog. These are two high scoring teams whose explosive offenses outshine their middling defenses. Expect both teams to score both score in the high-20s (at least). 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (275) and the Tennessee Titans (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 26-17 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 7th. Pittsburgh (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-19 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Seahawks will be without Russell Wilson in this game — but I think this presents an opportunity for Seattle to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. The Seahawks’ offense is on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game this season. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game is wearing them out. The Seahawks have allowed at least 457 yards in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in two straight games. “Let Russ Cook” can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. Don’t be surprised if Geno Smith plays well at quarterback for this team — especially in a more structured offense under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. He had some good moments last week in leading the Seahawks offense to one touchdown drive and keeping them competitive after the Wilson injury. He completed 10 of 17 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown and an interception — and he added 23 rushing yards. Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an underdog loss. And while they enjoyed their best offensive game of the season by generating 391 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers’ defense has not been as stout this season as they are giving up 361.7 total YPG — way above their 305.8 total YPG defensive mark last season which was third-best in the NFL. The Broncos gained 374 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is averaging only 18.8 PPG and 319.6 total YPG at home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Expect a close game where having the points will offer valuable insurance. 20* NFL Seattle-Pittsburgh NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 26-17 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 7th. Pittsburgh (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-19 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Seahawks generated 354 yards last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Seattle’s offense will be less explosive with quarterback Russell Wilson out for at least the next month— but I think this presents an opportunity for Seattle to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. The Seahawks’ offense is on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game this season. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game is wearing them out. “Let Russ Cook” can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. Look for the Seahawks to run the ball more behind running back Alex Collins and slow the game down to help their beleaguered defense. Seattle goes on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Under is 5-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers had their best offensive game of the season by generating 391 total yards — but the Under is also 35-14-2 in their last 51 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh gave up 268 passing yards to Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Steelers host this game where the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has seen the Under go 23-9-1 in their last 33 games in October — and Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 October games Under the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 47-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Arizona (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 victory at home against San Francisco as a 6-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland lost to the Chargers despite outgaining them by +38 net yards. The Browns have won the yardage battle in all five of their games this season — but two blown double-digit leads represent the two blemishes on their record. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Browns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. This is a bad matchup for the Cardinals who allowed their opponents to average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Cleveland leads the NFL by averaging 188 rushing YPG and 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Granted, the Browns are missing Nick Chubb for this game — but this is an opportunity for Kareem Hunt to be the featured back. Cleveland’s ground game thrives from one of the best offensive lines in the league. They rushed for 230 yards last week against the Chargers — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. And while they outrushed the Chargers by +118 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Arizona may be due for a letdown after their undefeated start to the season. They have covered the point spread in three straight games with their last two games against the Rams and 49ers. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games against NFC West opponents. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And in their last 36 games after winning three games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of these games. As if traveling east was enough of a challenge, the Cardinals are dealing with a COVID outbreak that will keep not only head coach Kliff Kingsbury but also their quarterbacks' coach from traveling with the team. My cynical reaction to this news is that Arizona may be better off without Kingsbury — but he is the play-caller for the team. The loss of the QB coach is also big since he is the one who communicates Kyler Murray’s in-game thoughts and preferences to the play-caller. The loss of these coaches on the sidelines creates chaos — the Saints got beat badly by 19 points at Carolina in Week Two after their COVID outbreak left them without some coaches on the sidelines. Their best pass rusher Chandler Jones is also out with COVID. Murray is not 100% either as he is dealing with an arm injury. Murray only ran for one yard last week while dealing with that injury. Arizona is just 1-7-1 straight-up when Murray does not rush for at least 15 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters even more for the Cardinals, high winds in the 20 miles-per-hour range are expected in Cleveland this afternoon — making a good rushing attack even more valuable with the wind impacting balls in the air. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (262) minus the points versus the Los Angles Chargers (261). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-1) won their fourth game in a row on Monday with their 31-25 win against Indianapolis in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 47-42 victory at home against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore should build off their momentum after playing a bad game for three quarters against the Colts. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning at least four games in a row. And in their last 5 games after a point spread loss, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore averages 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry and 168 rushing Yards-Per-Game when playing at home which will present a challenge for this Chargers team that struggles to stop the run. Los Angeles ranks second-to-last in run defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They are last in the NFL by allowing 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have allowed at least 180 rushing yards in three of their five games. The Chargers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they generated 493 yards last week, they have failed to cover the appoint spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Special teams are also an issue for this team with four missed extra points already this season. Los Angeles ranks 29th in the special teams in DVOA — and the Ravens are 2nd in the NFL in special teams DVOA.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Baltimore Ravens (262) minus the points versus the Los Angles Chargers (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (251) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (252). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-4) has lost four in a row after their 45-17 loss at Tampa Bay as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (0-5) has lost 20 games in a row going back to last season after their 37-19 loss to Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: In this battle of struggling AFC teams, I side with the better head coach and better team culture in Brian Flores in his third year with Miami — especially in handling the challenge of traveling across the Atlantic Ocean to play in this game. Perhaps regression was due for the Dolphins after their 10-6 campaign last year — but injuries have played a role in their four-game losing streak. Miami should play better this morning. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Flores is a defensive coach — he will address this unite that got shredded by Tom Brady for 558 total yards last week. Miami does get Tua Tagovailoa back for this game after he was knocked out early in Week Two. I guess I am a Tua supporter only because I find the arguments that he is a bust to be vastly premature. Without the benefit of training camp last season and coming off his hip injury that shortened his career at Alabama, he still completed 64.1% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and just five interceptions in a timeshare with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He won six of the nine games he started — and he won his first start this season at New England. But this is an In Flores I Trust situation. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Miami has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games under Flores between Weeks Five and Nine. Urban Meyer needs to send Thank You notes to Jon Gruden for bumping his name off the Coaches in Crisis headlines this week. After Meyer’s controversy with not flying back with his team after their loss at Cincinnati, it was telling that the Jaguars did not rally around their career-college head coach in their 18-point loss to the Titans. There are numerous reports that Meyer has lost the room. This was not the first controversy that Meyer has had since taking the job with the Jaguars. From hiring the strength coach from Iowa with a history of “racially-charged” language to then the Tim Tebow vanity project in August, Meyer has consistently demonstrated that he thinks he is above normal professional behavior in the league. That is the wrong look for college head coaches attempting to make the jump to the league. The long trip to London tends to expose internal disfunction. As it is, this is a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. Jacksonville has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Trevor Lawrence did complete 23 of 33 passes for 273 yards last week in a losing effort — but the Jaguars are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. After the New York Jets loss to Atlanta last Sunday morning with rookie Bryce Wilson under center, teams using a rookie quarterback are 0-5 when playing in London while being outscored by -85 net points in those games. Rookies QBs have not passed for more than more touchdown passes in any of those five games. 20* NFL Miami-Jacksonville London Special with the Miami Dolphins (251) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 37-31 loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago on October 2nd as a 12-point underdog. Iowa State (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 59-7 win against Kansas as a 34.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas State lost to the Sooners despite outgaining them by +28 net yards. Quarterback Skylar Thomson completed 29 of 41 passes for 320 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in a losing effort. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their las 5 games after losing two of their last three games. This program under head coach Bill Snyder and now Chris Klieman have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a bye week. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.3 PPG and outgaining their guests by +66.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as a dog overall — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against Big 12 opponents. And in their last 55 games in October, the Wildcats are 37-16-2 ATS. Iowa State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 28 or more points. Additionally, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. After committing four turnovers in their showdown with Iowa last month, the Cyclones have not committed more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has likely had this game circled after getting embarrassed in Ames last year where the Cyclones crushed them by a 45-0 score. The Wildcats will have revenge on their mind — and they upset Iowa State two years ago in Manhattan by a 27-17 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). THE SITUATION: Purdue (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-13 upset loss to Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (6-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 23-20 win against Penn State as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Boilermakers lost to the Golden Gophers despite holding them to just 300 total yards. Purdue has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a  home favorite against a Big Ten opponent. And while quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed 34 of 52 passes for 371 yards in the losing effort, they have then played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Boilermakers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Purdue has an underrated defense that is fifth in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate and tenth in points allowed per drive. They are allowing 15.4 PPG and 299.6 total YPG. But the Boilermakers’ offense is scoring just 23.6 PPG and only 5.5 Yards-Per-Play. They average just 90.2 rushing YPG with a 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry rushing clip. Furthermore, they play at a very slow pace averaging 25.5 seconds per play. They go back on the road where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Purdue has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against conference opponents. Iowa beat the Nittany Lions despite only gaining 305 yards in that game — but they held Penn State to just 287 total yards. The Hawkeyes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home against a Big Ten foe. Iowa has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Iowa has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Hawkeyes are not efficient on offense with just a 36.5% success rate. They also play at a slow pace as they average 29.2 seconds-per-play. Iowa may score 31.5 PPG but they are generating just 317.5 total YPG. But the Hawkeyes’ defense is elite as they hold their opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 270.4 total YPG. They are tenth in the nation by allowing just 90.3 rushing YPG. Iowa has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games when favored — and they had played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and Purdue has played 5 straight Unders in October. While the number in the low-40s for this game makes the Under bet ominous, both these teams have great defenses and limited offenses that play at a slow pace. The first team to 20 points probably wins. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). THE SITUATION: Texas (4-2) looks to rebound from their 55-48 loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry as a 4-point underdog last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-0) remained undefeated two weeks ago with their 24-114 win against Baylor as a 4-point favorite on October 2nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas blew a 41-23 lead to lose to the Sooners last week. The Longhorns did eclipse the 45 point mark last week for the third time this season. Under first-year head coach Steve Sarkisian, Texas has been explosive on offense averaging 44.5 PPG, fifth-best in the nation. Sarkisian has one of the best running backs in the nation in Bijan Robinson who is third in the nation in rushing yards. But this offense became even more potent when Sarkisian moved to Casey Thompson as his starting quarterback. The fourth-year junior averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt last week against the Sooners’ defense. He completed 20 of 34 passes for 388 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Longhorns are scoring 52 PPG and generating 547.3 total YPG since Thompson became the starting quarterback. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Longhorns averaged 8.6 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last game. Texas did not commit more than one turnover last week for the sixth straight time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than one turnover in four straight games. Oklahoma State committed three turnovers in their win against the Bears two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after committing at least three turnovers in their last game. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Oklahoma State is playing great defense this season — they are holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG. But despite that nice number, they rank just 105th in the nation in tackling effectiveness — a daunting metric when now facing Robinson who broke ten tackles last week. And while the Cowboys have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least four straight games. The Oklahoma State offense will struggle to keep up with the Longhorns. Their four victories against FBS opponents were by only 1, 5, 10, and 11 points. They are scoring just 25.4 PPG and averaging only 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has only thrown for five touchdown passes in five games — and he has committed six turnover-worthy plays. He threw three picks against Baylor in his last game. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time all season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. Look for the unbeaten Cowboys to get exposed this afternoon. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-Texas Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-18 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-1) has won their last two games after their 45-17 victory against Miami as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles pulled off a nice win against a solid Panthers team last week. They held Carolina to just 267 yards in the win. Philadelphia had lost three games in a row where they did not cover the point spread — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 65 home games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games, the Eagles have covered the point spread a decisive 42 times. Philly is winless at home this year in difficult games against San Francisco and Kansas City — but they outgained both those teams by a combined +6.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. Tampa Bay may be due for a letdown after their blowout win against the Dolphins. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. The Buccaneers have a stout run defense — but they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for a whopping 314 Yards-Per-Game in the air. The Tampa Bay defense will be without two important starters in linebacker Lavonte David and free safety Antoine Winfield as they are dealing with injuries. Now they go on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.0 PPG. They are scoring just 21.5 PPG in their first two games away from home — and quarterback Tom Brady is dealing with an injured right hand which may slow him down in the passing game. His safety valve in Rob Gronkowski is also still out tonight with a rib injury. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Tampa Bay is also 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have been inconsistent this season which is not a big surprise for teams coming off Super Bowl triumphs. These are the types of games where these champions tend to underachieve — especially when on a short week. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a Thursday night. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-1) has won their last two games after their 45-17 victory against Miami as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-18 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers held the Dolphins to just 301 yards in their blowout victory on Sunday. Miami managed only 39 rushing yards in that contest. Tampa Bay led the NFL in rushing defense last season by holding their opponents to just 80.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game. This season, the Buccaneers have been even better by holding their opponents to just 46 rushing YPG on 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tampa Bay is making teams one-dimensional on offense — allowing their pass rush to take over. The Buccaneers have held their last two opponents to just 17 points in each contest. Tom Brady is dealing with a nagging injury with his throwing hand which may slow down their passing attack and/or compels them to run the ball more. The Eagles allow 142 rushing Yards-Per-Game this season — and Tampa Bay has played 39 of their last 62 games Under the Total against teams who allow at least 130 rushing YPG. Philadelphia’s defense is playing better this season — after allowing 363.1 total YPG last season, they have held their five opponents this year to 336.8 total YPG for an improvement of 26.3 net YPG. The Eagles have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing at home after a straight-up victory. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread wins -- and they have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory when playing at home. The Eagles return home where they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Buccaneers score 33.4 PPG, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 24 PPG. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 20-18 win at South Alabama as a 12-point favorite on October 2nd. Appalachian State (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 45-16 win against Georgia State as a 10.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana is not being given much respect by bettors after three of their victories have been by eight points or less. The Ragin’ Cajuns have only covered the point spread in a 49-14 blowout win against Ohio this season — by they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The team misses their running back duo from last season in Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas who moved on to the NFL (with Mitchell now a primary back for San Francisco). But in head coach Billy Napier I trust — and he has a senior-laden team with 20 starters back from last year’s group that qualified for the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game for the third straight season. The offense is led by fifth-year senior and third-year starter Levi Lewis who has won a bunch of games for this team. The dual-threat quarterback only passed for 49 yards last week — but Louisiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. Lewis is completing 62.7% of his passes with only one interception in his 150 pass attempts. The Ragin’ Cajun defense has not allowed more than 24 points in their last four games after giving up 38 points in their opening game loss at Texas to begin the season. Louisiana has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games when getting up to 7 points. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 21 or more points against a conference rival. The Mountaineers generated 502 yards against the Panthers last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Second-year head coach Shawn Clark has 17 starters back from the team that finished 9-3 last year. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana had lost all eight of their games with Appalachian State since 2014 -- including twice in 2019 including the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game — before avenging that loss last season with a 24-21 upset win in Boone on December 4th as a 3-point underdog. This is a crucial game for the Mountaineers who have Coastal Carolina on deck and little wiggle-room in the SBC West Division to take a loss. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. The Ragin’ Cajuns are in better shape in the East Division to reach the championship game for a fourth straight season (last year’s game was a COVID cancellation) — but the Mountaineers remain their white whale even after last year’s triumph. Expect a close game with Louisiana in a position to win late. 10* CFB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (479) and the Baltimore Ravens (480). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 27-17 upset win at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog. Baltimore (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 23-7 upset win at Denver as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as a road underdog. And while that game finished Over the low 41.5 point total, the Colts have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Over the Total. This team is scoring just 20.8 Points-Per-Game and averaging only 326.0 total YPG. They gained only 349 yards against the Dolphins despite holding the ball for 37:09 minutes. This will be a Jonathan Taylor game with Indy looking to once again win the time of possession battle to keep Lamar Jackson and the potent Ravens offense off the field. The Colts have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Ravens have also played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points at home. Baltimore has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have held their last two opponents to just 24 combined points despite being on the road for both games. Now Baltimore returns home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. They have played 4 of their last  5 games Under the Total when favored. Lamar Jackson completed 22 of 37 passes for 316 yards against the Broncos — but the Ravens have played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 12 of their last 13 meetings Under the Total including four straight Unders when playing in Baltimore. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (479) and the Baltimore Ravens (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (480) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (479). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 23-7 upset win at Denver as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 27-17 upset win at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore is dealing with injuries — but head coach John Harbaugh has instilled the “next man up” culture with his team. The Ravens outgained the Broncos by +152 net yards by holding Denver to just 254 total yards. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by +150 or more yards. Quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to improve in the passing game. He leads the NFL by averaging 12.1 air-yards per pass attempt — and his 14.4 yards-per-completion also leads the league. He completed 22 of 37 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions while only running for an additional 28 yards — he beat the tough Broncos defense with his arm. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Ravens return home for just the second time this season. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games — and they have coiffed the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after the first month of the season under Harbaugh. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while they held the Dolphins to just 35 yards, they have then lost 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. This Colts team is riddled with injuries — and they do not have the quality of depth that the Ravens do. Twelve players are on  Injured Reserve — and starting guard Braden Smith and cornerback Rock Ya-Son and first-round draft pick defensive end Kity Paye are all out for tonight. Indianapolis is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis is being outgained and outscored this season — and Baltimore is outgaining their opponents by +61.2 net Yards-Per-Game. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on Monday Night Football. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (480) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (478) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (477).  THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 42-30 win at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Buffalo (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 40-0 shutout win against Houston as a 19-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills look amazing on paper — they lead the NFL in point differential and they have only trailed in 11 total minutes in their first four games. But after a flat opening week performance against a Steelers team that is winless ever since, Buffalo has feasted on three backup quarterbacks in the last three weeks in Jacob Brissett (off the bench for most of that game after the Tua Tagovailoa injury), Taylor Heinicke, and then Davis Mills last week. Sorry, I am not ready to anoint this unit the second coming of the 1986 Bears — and their star linebacker Matt Milano is questionable with a hamstring injury. They are also benefiting from turnovers against these backup quarterbacks — they won the turnover battle in each of those three games while sporting a +3 and +4 net turnover margin in the last two weeks. But the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. And while Buffalo outrushed the Texans by +151 net yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards. Additionally, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two of their last three games. The Chiefs got their ground game going by rushing for a season-high 199 yards to help them generate 471 total yards. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott may be tempted to play two-high safeties to dare the Chiefs to run the football — but KC can still gouge them for first down after first down gobbling up five yards at a time. Defense is the concern for the Chiefs after allowing at least 29 points in all four of their games. But Kansas City has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will be motivated to avenge a 38-24 loss at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against the Chiefs. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Let’s back Patrick Mahomes at home laying no more than a field goal. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (478) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 40-0 shutout win against Houston as a 19-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 42-30 win at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 13-5-1 in the Bills’ last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a point spread victory. Buffalo has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by at least four touchdowns. After their opening loss at home to Pittsburgh, the Bills have won three straight all by at least 22 points — and they have scored at least 35 points in all three games. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning three in a row by double-digits — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points in three straight games. I believe in Josh Allen and this Bills offense that is scoring 33.5 PPG after finishing second in the NFL last year by scoring 31.3 PPG. But I am not yet a believer in this defense that has pitched two shutouts in the last three weeks. They have benefited from playing three backup quarterbacks in the last three weeks in Jacob Brissett (off the bench for most of that game after the Tua Tagovailoa injury), Taylor Heinicke, and then Davis Mills last week. Sorry, I am not ready to anoint this unit the second coming of the 1986 Bears — and their star linebacker Matt Milano is questionable with a hamstring injury. As it is, Buffalo has played 4 straight Overs after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held the hapless Texans' offense to 109 total yards, they have then played 5 straight Overs after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after shutting out their last opponent. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Patrick Mahomes completed 24 of 30 passes for 278 yards with five touchdown passes — and the Chiefs have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Kansas City is scoring 33.5 PPG this season after averaging 29.6 PPG last year while leading the NFL by averaging 415.8 total YPG — and they have added wide receiver Josh Gordon into the mix to offer them an additional red-zone threat. But the Chiefs' defense remains their Achilles’ heel as they are allowing 31.3 PPG and 432.8 total YPG. The Eagles (!) did not punt against them last week while gaining 461 yards with 365 of those in the air. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after giving up at least 350 passing yards in their last game. The Chiefs host this game in Arrowhead Stadium where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Kansas City’s 38-24 victory over the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs as an underdog — and the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. The Bills should approach or eclipse their scoring average in what should be a shootout. I will be prepared to watch Kansas City run the ball often against a Buffalo defense that may play two-high safeties to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off. Even so, I think the Chiefs still reach their season average. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (470) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (469). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-1) lost their first game of the season after their 28-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog for Monday Night Football. Chicago (2-2) evened their record with a 24-14 win against Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Chicago gave up 351 yards to the Lions with their banged-up offensive line and limited weapons at wide receiver — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears travel west with some difficult injuries. Defensive end Akiem Hicks is out with a groin injury which will hurt their defense. They are also without their top running back David Montgomery who is on IR with a knee injury. And while Justin Fields is in much better hands with offensive coordinator taking over the play-calling duties for head coach (and “My Way or the Highway” schemes that he permanently borrowed from Andy Reid), he is still a rookie quarterback making a start in a hostile environment (and it is loud here in Allegiant Stadium). Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Chicago is 0-2 on the road where they are getting outscored by -20 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by —217.5 net YPG. The Bears are giving up 30 PPG on the road while scoring just 10.0 PPG from 184.5 total YPG. They face an angry Raiders team that is 2-0 in their new building with fans allowed to attend while scoring 32.0 PPG and generation 494.0 total YPG. Las Vegas was flat on Monday in their loss against the Chargers after falling behind by at least two touchdowns for the third time in four games. Their ability to rally from deficits has led to the Raiders getting too complacent — and the lightning weather delay that night did them no favors to offset their growing habit of starting slow. Spotting Justin Herbert three touchdowns was too much to overcome. The slow start contributed to Las Vegas only running the ball 18 times for 48 rushing yards — and they were outgained by 120 rushing yards by the Chargers. Gruden’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of their 22 games in his coaching history after a game where they were outrushed by at least 100 yards. Gruden believes in the run game — and he has a healthy Josh Jacobs who should be in good shape after playing on Monday.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in Weeks 5-9 — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in October. I suspect that the Raiders finally get off to a fast start in this one. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (470) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (347) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (348). THE SITUATION: Utah (2-2) comes off a 24-13 win against Washington State as a 15-point favorite back on September 25th. USC (3-2) beat Colorado by a 37-14 score in Boulder as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLSU THE POINTS: Utah lost two non-conference games at BYU and San Diego State — but they are unbeaten in Pac-12 play. Head coach Kyle Whittingham will have his team ready to play with an extra week to rest and prepare. The Utes have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after a bye week. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win in conference play. Utah has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win in Pac-12 play. The Utes defense is consistently good — and they are allowing only 22.3 PPG and 304.0 total YPG despite a challenging early schedule. Utah has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They are stable at quarterback now under sixth-year senior Cameron Rising being the clear starter after Charlie Brewer left the team (after losing this job). Now this team goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Utah is 46-22-2 ATS in their last 70 games as an underdog — and they are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games as an underdog. The Utes have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in October under Whittingham. USC may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Interim head coach Donte Williams called out his team this week despite the victory given the group’s loose play with fumbles, penalties, and too many celebrations. The players are behaving like they have a substitute teacher — and that is not a good way to then play a well-coached team like Utah. The Trojans are 1-2 at home in the Coliseum where they are getting outscored by a field goal and surrendering 31.3 PPG and 428.7 total YPG. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to a field goal.

FINAL TAKE: Utah will be motivated to avenge a 33-17 loss at home to USC last season as a 1-point underdog. The Utes have cord the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games under Whittingham in conference play. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Utah Utes (347) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (348). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (359) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (360). THE SITUATION: LSU (3-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 24-19 upset loss at home to Auburn as a 3-point favorite. Kentucky (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 20-13 upset win at home against Florida as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU suffered their second upset loss this season after opening the year with an upset loss at UCLA. The Tigers have been resilient under head coach Ed Orgeron. LSU has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread 16 of their last 22 games on the road after an upset loss. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LSU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Tigers are scoring 31.4 PPG this season. They are getting good play from sophomore quarterback Max Johnson who is completing 62.4% of their passes with 16 touchdowns. He completed 26 of 46 passes for 325 yards in the loss to Auburn. LSU’s defense gave up 453 yards to Auburn — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite the loss, they have not given up more than 25 points in four straight games. The Tigers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games against teams with a winning record at home. LSU has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October. Kentucky enjoyed their biggest victory of the season buy upsetting the Gators — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after an upset victory against an SEC rival where they were getting at least six points. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a conference rival. Kentucky pulled off the upset despite getting outgained by -158 net yards and losing the first down battle, 21-13.3 The Wildcats upset a Florida team that was competitive against Alabama — but they also only beat UT-Chattanooga by five points despite being a 31-point favorite. Kentucky is living dangerously with a -9 net turnover margin. They have only forced three turnovers all season with one takeaway in three games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing more than one turnover in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for this LSU program since they will likely be underdogs in the subsequent three games over a difficult stretch where they play Florida then at Mississippi and at Alabama. 25* CFB SEC Underdog of the Month with the LSU Tigers (359) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (360). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (341) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (342). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-31 upset loss at home to Nevada as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-20 victory at Utah State as an 8.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State outgained the Wolf Pack by +57 yards but they were undone by a -3 net turnover margin. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. Boise State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three contests. It has been a disappointing start for new head coach Andy Avalos — but his team has played a tough schedule. Their three losses were to Oklahoma State, Central Florida, and then a solid Nevada team last week. Boise State can rack up points with Hank Bachmeier under center. They rank 17th in Success Rate in the passing game with a star wide receiver in Khalil Shakir and Bachmeier averaging 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. He completed 34 of 48 passes for 388 yards with four touchdowns against the Wolf Pack. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread 7 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog. BYU got the benefit of a +2 net turnover margin in their win against the Aggies on October 1st. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games at home after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. BYU has only committed two turnovers all season — and they have not turned the ball over in their last two games. But the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not turning the ball over in two straight games. BYU is only outgaining their opponents by +27.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Boise State should be able to move the ball in the air against this Cougars defense that ranks 98th in Success Rate in the passing game. BYU is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Boise State Broncos (341) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (342). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (309) and the Florida International Golden Panthers (310). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-14 loss at Illinois as a 10-point underdog last Saturday. FIU (1-4) has lost nine of their last ten games going back to last season after a 58-21 loss at FAU as a 10.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Charlotte managed only 263 yards of offense against the Fighting Illini defense — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. They are scoring 26.8 Points-Per-Game while generating 411.8 total YPG. Quarterback Chris Reynolds is averaging a robust 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game with 11 touchdown passes. He faces a porous Golden Panthers pass defense that lacks a pass rush and allows opposing quarterbacks to average 8.9 YPA. FIU is giving up 41.5 PPG and 555.8 total YPG. They have allowed at least 397 passing yards against their last three opponents. Charlotte has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a favorite. FIU has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. The Owls generated a whopping 704 yards against them last week — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. After playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Between Max Bortenschlager and Grayson Games, they passed for 319 yards last week — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They face a suspect 49ers defense that ranks 111th in the nation in Big Plays Allowed. Charlotte is surrendering 7.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — 125th in the FBS. Their run defense is giving up 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry and a whopping 255 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. Expect a competitive and high-scoring game. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (309) and the Florida International Golden Panthers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (301) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 37-20 upset loss to Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite. Seattle (2-2) comes off a 28-21 upset at San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINT(S): Los Angeles should bounce-back after losing their first game of the season five days ago. The Rams have rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Additionally, Los Angeles is 12-3-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams typically respond well to setbacks under head coach Sean McVay. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles did gain 401 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Rams defense disappointed by surrendering 465 yards and 37 points. Los Angeles is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Seattle only gained 234 yards last week against the 49ers but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Russell Wilson passed for just 149 yards in the game. The Seahawks may be without running back Chris Carson who is questionable with a neck injury which would leave them to just Alex Collins with Rashaad Penny on IR. But the bigger issue for Seattle has been on defense with them allowing 444.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They are being outgained by -94.5 net YPG. The 49ers gained 457 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Seahawks have allowed at least 313 passing yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Seahawks including their 30-20 win in Seattle in the playoffs last January. The Rams are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against NFC West opponents — and the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (301) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 37-20 upset loss to Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite. Seattle (2-2) comes off a 28-21 upset at San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams need to tighten things up on defense after the Cardinals generated 465 yards against them last week. Regression was expected for that unit after they led the NFL by allowing only 4.6 Yards-Per-Play which was +0.33 YPP better than the next best defensive team in that metric. Los Angeles still has defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey. After only having the ball for 24:50 minutes against Arizona, head coach Sean McVay may look to run the ball a bit more to keep his defense rested and off the field. Their 23 rushing attempts last week were tied for the lowest in a game so far this season. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. And in their last 27 games when favored, they have played 20 of these games Under the Total. Seattle only gained 234 yards last week against the 49ers but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Russell Wilson passed for just 149 yards in the game. The Seahawks may be without running back Chris Carson who is questionable with a neck injury which would leave them to just Alex Collins with Rashaad Penny on IR. After averaging 28.7 Points-Per-Game and 369.5 total YPG last season, Seattle is down to scoring 25.8 PPG and averaging 350.3 total YPG this season. The Seahawks gave up 314 yards in the air to the Niners last week — the third week in a row that they have given up at least 300 passing yards — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after giving up at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and the Under is 3-1-1 in Seattle’s last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Seahawks have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Seattle has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total for Thursday Night Football. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in October — and the Rams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (304) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (303). THE SITUATION: Tulane (1-4) looks to bounce-back from their 52-29 upset loss at East Carolina as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Houston (4-1) won their fourth game in a row after their 45-10 upset victory at Tulsa as a 3.5-point underdog last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Green Wave has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Willie Fritz. Tulane started the season with optimism with 16 starters back from a team that finished 6-6 after losing to Navy, SMU, and Tulsa on the final play of the game. A 40-35 loss in Norman at Oklahoma to begin the season was encouraging before they crushed Morgan State. They had a tough assignment at Ole Miss the next week — but they have been favored the last two weeks at home against UAB and then at East Carolina last week. The schedule has been a challenge. Turnovers are killing this team — they are fourth in the nation by averaging three turnovers per game with second-year freshman quarterback Michael Plitt responsible for nine of them. The defense is getting mauled — but the schedule has not helped. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Tulane has been a much more reliable team at home under Fritz where they are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in October. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Houston has had just a 7-13 record in the first two seasons under head coach Dana Holgorsen. He has talent with a bevy of transfers adding to his slew of redshirts from two seasons ago when he shut a bunch of players down in his first year with the team after four games to maintain their eligibility. After a 17-point loss at home Texas Tech, a favorable schedule against Rice, Grambling, a struggling Navy team, and then the Golden Hurricane has helped them put up great numbers on both sides of the football. But in Houston’s last 16 games on the road when favored, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has won and covered the point spread in the last four meetings between these two teams. Fritz will remind his team of their 49-31 loss at Houston last season. 10* CFB Houston-Tulane ESPN Special with the Tulane Green Wave (304) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-0) won their third straight game with their 31-28 win in overtime against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-1) comes off a 30-24 upset win at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders rallied from a two-touchdown deficit for the second time this season as they spotted the Dolphins a 14-0 lead before scoring 25 unanswered points. Miami got on the board with an 85-yard interception return for a touchdown that served as a 14-point swing in the first quarter as Las Vegas appeared poised to score the opening touchdown. The Raiders outgained the Dolphins by +167 net yards. Las Vegas is outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG and they are dominating their opponents in yardage by a +115.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Raiders were top-ten in scoring and total offense last year — but it is the improved play of their defense that has made the winning difference this season. It starts with the pass rush under first-year defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Despite only blitzing 9% of the time, the Las Vegas defense is generating pressure in 44% of opposing snaps. Now the Raiders go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when priced in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Chargers have covered the point spread in two of three games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Los Angeles has two upset wins so far this season — but they are only outscoring their opponents by +2.3 PPG and outgoing them by +23.0 net YPG. The defense has been hit with injuries with starters Kenneth Murray and cornerback Chris Harris questionable. Depth defensive tackle Justin Jones is out with a calf injury. The Chargers are also giving away too many yards in penalties to their opponents. They are averaging 8.7 penalties per game which is producing 81 penalty Yards-Per-Game which is the most in the league. Los Angeles returns home where they are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings last season with the road team winning both times. The underdog has covered the point spread in 18 of the last 24 meetings between these two teams. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Los Angeles Chargers (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-0) won their third straight game with their 31-28 win in overtime against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-1) comes off a 30-24 upset win at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This game should be a shootout. The Raiders have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a point spread loss. Las Vegas has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Derek Carr completed 26 of 43 passes for 386 yards in the victory — and the Raiders have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Carr is averaging over 400 passing YPG this season — and he has topped at least 350 passing yards in five straight games going back to last year. Las Vegas has played 7 straight Overs after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. Carr is playing at a very high level — he is a smart player who has mastered Jon Gruden’s offense in their fourth year together. Now the Raiders go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total. Furthermore, the Over is 8-2-1 in Las Vegas’ last 11 games as an underdog — and the Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Chargers gained 352 yards against the Chiefs last week in their win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The quarterback battle between Carr and Justin Herbert should be dynamic — a race to reach (at least) 30 points. The Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC West opponents. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Los Angeles Chargers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (278) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to rebound from their 28-13 upset loss at home to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite last week. Tampa Bay (2-1) lost their first game since winning the Super Bowl last season in a 34-24 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point road favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: If the choice is between Tom Brady and Mac Jones, then the answer is easy. If the choice is between Brady and Bill Belichick, the answer gets tougher. But if the choice is between Brady or Belichick at home getting points, then I will take Belichick coaching as a home dog. New England has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games getting the points — including nine of these last eleven situations. The Patriots are also 42-18-2 ATS in their last 62 games in October under Belichick. He will have his team ready to play after their disappointing effort at home against the Saints last week. New England has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points at home. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Don’t underestimate the quality of this Patriots defense as they are allowing only 17.0 PPG and 282.3 total Yards-Per-Game. It will be fascinating to observe what Belichick has in store in defending against his former quarterback. Jones has been impressive as a rookie quarterback — he completed 30 of 51 passes for 270 yards while rushing for another 28 yards in a losing effort to the Saints. His three interceptions hurt — but the Patriots have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers are dealing with some injuries on defense. Linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul is out with a shoulder injury and the Bucs are dealing with other injuries at cornerback including Sean Murphy-Bunting who is IR. Tampa Bay is allowing 29.3 PPG and 402.2 YPG — and they have allowed at least 25 points in all three of their games this season. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight games. The Rams averaged 6.56 Yards-Per-Play against this defense last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. Tampa Bay is giving up 338 passing YPG with all three of their opponents passing for at least 293 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in a three-game stretch.

FINAL TAKE: Brady has failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight appearances on Prime-Time television. That probably speaks to a “Brady tax” that bettors must swallow if wanting to back the G.O.A.T. with their bet. Either way, the value is with the Patriots tonight. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (278) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277) and the New England Patriots (278). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (2-1) lost their first game since winning the Super Bowl last season in a 34-24 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point road favorite last Sunday. New England (1-2) looks to rebound from their 28-13 upset loss at home to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T. but I do expect him to be emotional in his first return to Gilette Stadium since leaving the Patriots organization. Remember, he has a history of slow starts in the Super Bowl. We will also witness the fascinating matchup of him going up against a Bill Belichick defense. Brady is on record indicating that the Miami Dolphins’ defenses tend to give him the most trouble despite deploying a basic scheme against him. I am not smarter than Belichick but I would guess he will focus on taking away either wide receiver Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. Rob Gronkowski did not even make the trip to Foxboro given his broken ribs — so Brady’s safety valve is gone. Belichick might also dare the Buccaneers to run the football and take the ball out of Brady’s hands. Tampa Bay is not running the ball well this season — they are averaging just 56 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Buccaneers have not rushed for more than 82 yards in a game this season — and head coach Bruce Arians’ teams have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a three-game stretch where they did not rush for at least 100 yards even once. The Patriots are playing great defense this season — they are allowing only 17.0 PPG and 282.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. New England has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. While almost all the attention this week has been on Brady v. Belichick, an underplayed narrative is how rookie Mac Jones will handle the pressure of this moment as the literal heir apparent to Brady. I suspect he will be nervous. As it is, New England is scoring only 18.0 PPG and averaging 317.7 total YPG. They are 27th in the NFL by averaging just 4.8 Yards-Per-Play. To compound matters, Jones will be without running back James White after a season-ending injury — and he creates a void since he is a reliable safety valve catching the ball out of the backfield. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total. They have played 5 straight Unders as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games against teams from the NFC, New England has played 7 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay’s defense has underachieved this season — they are allowing 29.3 PPG this season. The talent on that side of the ball is still elite — and they are holding opposing rushers to just 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry after leading the NFL in run defense last season. They are going to force Jones to beat them with his arm. The Patriots have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams who allow at least 27 PPG. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277) and the New England Patriots (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (251) and the Atlanta Falcons (252). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-2) looks to rebound from their flat 43-21 loss at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog. Atlanta (1-2) won their first game of the season on Sunday with their 17-14 upset win at New York against the Giants as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Football Team gave up a whopping 481 yards to the Bills last week in what has been a surprising turn of events for this team’s defense. After finishing second in the league last year by holding opponents to 304.6 total YPG, the defense this season in second-to-last by allowing 432.0 total YPG. But in Ron Rivera I trust — and I expect him along with defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio to right the ship. There is too much talent on this unit — especially on the defensive line with four former first-round draft picks. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed the Bills to gain 481 yards against them, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Football Team has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in October. They have also played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They now face a Falcons team that is one-dimensional relying too much on Matt Ryan’s arm. The Mike Davis-led rushing attack is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Falcons are scoring only 16.0 PPG and generating just 301.3 total YPG. Rookie head coach Arthur Smith does seem to want to run the football to protect his suspect defense — although defensive coordinator Dean Pees is doing about as good a job as possible with that unit. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Falcons had only 296 yards in their win last week. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as a dog. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Washington held their final seven opponents last season to 20 or fewer points. With Taylor Heinicke under center, Rivera does not want to have this game get into a shootout with Ryan. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (251) and the Atlanta Falcons (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (256) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (255). THE SITUATION: New York (0-3) remained winless on the season after their embarrassing 26-0 shutout loss at Denver last Sunday as a 10.5-point underdog. Tennessee (2-1) comes off a 25-16 win against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: NFL teams coming off shutouts tend to respond with a strong effort the next week. This was the case for our 25* play on Miami last week who got shutout 35-0 the week before against Buffalo. For what it is worth, NFL teams have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games after getting shut out in their previous game. The Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 21 points on the road in their previous game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. They have played a tough schedule against Carolina, New England, and the Broncos who all feature tough defenses. That is not the case this afternoon against the Titans who are allowing 28.0 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee will be without their starting wide receivers with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones out with injuries. This leaves them one-dimensional on offense. This is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when favored — and they are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets are desperate for a win — and they are playing hard for head coach Robert Saleh. The former San Francisco defensive coordinator has his team playing solid defense — they are holding their opponents to 328.3 total YPG. With the Titans missing their two wide receivers, the Titans just need to escape with a win. Take the points! 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the New York Jets (256) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (214) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (213). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (1-3) looks to rebound from their 42-39 loss at Charlotte as a 2.5-point underdog last Friday. Marshall (2-2) comes off a 31-30 loss at Appalachian State as a 7-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss to a conference opponent by seven points or less. After winning their opening game at home at Monmouth, the Blue Raiders have lost three in a row — all on the road — to Virginia Tech, UTSA, and the 49ers last week. Tough stretch. Veteran head coach Rick Stockstill will tell his team to take advantage of playing back at home at Floyd Stadium since they head back on another three-game road swing. This is the middle of a brutal stretch where six of their seven games are away from home. Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in October under Stockstill, coaching the team in his sixteenth season. Quarterback Bailey Hockman left the team after the loss at UTSA to tend his new family — but the Blue Raiders are in fine hands under Chase Cunningham. The redshirt junior completed 28 of 40 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns without an interception last week. Middle Tennessee needs to shore up their defense after allowing 559 yards including 330 yards in the air. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. The Thundering Herd got outgained by -169 net yards after surrendering 566 yards to the Mountaineers last week. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outgained by at least 125 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Thundering Herd has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Former Alabama running backs coach Charles Huff is in his first season as the Marshall head coach — but his football team has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when favored including four of these last five situations. Stockstill has 19 starters back from the team that lost at Marshall last November 14th by a 42-14 score. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (214) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (204) minus the point(s) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (203). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 28-20 loss to Louisiana as a 14.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arkansas State (1-3) has also lost their last three games after their 41-34 loss at Tulsa as a 14.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia Southern won the yardage battle, 453 to 378, against a Ragin’ Cajuns team that fancies themselves as the best Group of Five football team in the nation this season (despite an opening loss at Texas). But after blowout losses on the road at FAU and Arkansas before that loss, the Eagles administration decided to relieve head coach Chad Lunsford of his duties. Georgia Southern has not been satisfied with its football program since Willie Fritz left for Tulane in 2016. They brought in Colorado State defensive coordinator Tyson Summers but he was not a good fit for the program. Lunsford took over midway through Summers’ second season after a disastrous 0-6 start. The longtime assistant did a fine job of re-establishing the culture that Fritz had established — but he was probably not the coach to keep this program at the level it had been under Fritz. Georgia Southern will likely take a long time in conducting a national search to correct the mistake they made in tapping Summers over five years ago. Cornerbacks coach Kevin Whitley takes over as the interim head coach in the meantime. Lunsford was liked by the players — but his firing also called out the 16 starters returning from last year’s 8-5 team. Look for this team to rally around each other — and Whitley — in this important game for the program. As it is, the Eagles have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games when playing with six days or less of rest. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Arkansas State covered the two-touchdown spread against the Golden Hurricane last week benefitting from a 63-yard punt return for a touchdown and a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. But the Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. Arkansas State surrendered a whopping 663 yards of offense to Tulsa while getting outgained by 304 net yards. The Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Arkansas State surrendered 8.96 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate at least 7.25 YPP. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games coming off a road game where both teams scored at least 31 points. Arkansas State opened their season by defeating Central Arkansas, an FCS opponent. After losing by just five points to Memphis, they got housed on the road at Washington two weeks ago by a 52-3 score against a previously winless Huskies team.

FINAL TAKE: This is a tough situational spot for the Red Wolves with this being their third straight game away from home and out-of-state. And Whitley will be able to squeeze out some extra motivation from his team by reminding them of their 38-33 loss at Arkansas State two years ago as a 1-point underdog in their last meeting on November 23rd of 2019. 20* CFB Saturday Discounted Deal with the Georgia Southern Eagles (204) minus the point(s) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (165) and the Stanford Cardinal (166). THE SITUATION: Oregon (4-0) has won their first four games of the season with their 41-19 win against Arizona as a 29.5-point favorite last Saturday. Stanford (2-2) looks to bounce back from heir 35-24 loss at home to UCLA as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight-road games Over the Total after a win at home. Oregon has also played 4 straight Overs after a blowout win by 20 or more points. The Ducks’ offense is predicated on running the football under head coach and former Alabama offensive line coach Mario Cristobal. Oregon averages 5.2 rushing Yards-Per-Carry to lead them to generate 204 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they will be running against a porous Cardinal run defense that is allowing their opponents to average 5.2 YPC. The Ducks are scoring 38.8 PPG — and they have scored at least 31 points in all four of their games. Oregon’s defense would have surrendered more points if not for the Wildcats’ five turnovers last week — Arizona gouged them for 435 total yards. As it is, the Ducks have played 6 straight games Over the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. Fresno State and Ohio State scored 24 and 28 points respectively — so Stanford scoring in the mid-20s as a floor is a reasonable expectation. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when the favorite. Stanford has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Cardinal has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Stanford went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 21-7 score — but Tanner McKee rallied the team in the third quarter with two unanswered touchdowns to tie the game. The sophomore quarterback completed 19 of 32 passes for 293 yards and three touchdown passes. He also added 42 yards on the ground. Since McKee took over the starting job after the Cardinal’s 24-7 opening loss at Kansas State, Stanford is scoring 35.7 PPG and averaging 385.7 total YPG — and the Cardinal scored 42 and 41 points on the road against both USC and Vanderbilt. McKee is completing 68% of his passes without an interception — and head coach David Shaw appears very comfortable with the offense revolving around his arm, especially with some injuries at running back. While the final score against the Bruins finished just under the 60.5 point total, Stanford has played 7 straight Overs after playing an Under in their last game. The Cardinal defense has not been great — they are allowing 27.5 PPG and 401.3 total YPG. Stanford stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. The Cardinal has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon scored five touchdowns last season in their 35-14 victory at Eugene with the Total closing around 40. These two teams have played 11 of their last 16 meetings Over the Total. The Ducks are 8-point road favorites — but Stanford should be a feisty dog that will push them to score more points. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (165) and the Stanford Cardinal (166). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season with a 31-19 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (2-1) comes off a 24-10 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Successful long-term gambling in football requires the willingness to back bad teams — the ones that the betting public does not want to touch. Two bad teams are playing tonight — so taking the one getting a touchdown in points offers value. This is just the fourth time in head coach Zac Taylor’s three-year year tenure as the head coach of the Bengals — and this is the first time that Cincinnati is laying more than a field goal. The Bengals lost the two games they were favored in Taylor’s rookie season. Their lone win and point spread cover as a favorite under Taylor was their 33-25 win against the Jaguars last October as a 1-point favorite. With Urban Meyer now the head coach and Trevor Lawrence under center, this is a different Jacksonville team. Frankly, the Bengals are primed for a letdown after their triumph against their heated AFC North rival in the Steelers. Did Cincinnati win that game — or did Pittsburgh lose it? The Bengals gained only 268 yards. They ran only 42 plays while the Steelers took 77 snaps under center. Cincy converted only three of nine of their third-down opportunities — a disturbing continuation from last season when they were 30th in the NFL by converting 36.2% of their third-down opportunities. But the Bengals pulled off their second upset victory of the season after beating Minnesota in Week One as an underdog. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. I like quarterback Joe Burrow — and would like him even more if played behind an even average offensive line. The Bengals allowed 48 sacks last season — and they have surrendered 10 sacks so far this season despite the Steelers failing to sack Burrow even once. Cincinnati got the memo to run the ball more after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year just to keep Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals are running the ball 52% of the time. But that also means that they are scoring only 22.7 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 291.0 total YPG. I am not sold on Taylor as a head coach, yet another beneficiary of once being in the same room as Sean McVay. With offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, he has assembled a support staff that will not threaten his authority. The Bengals are dealing with injuries in their secondary as well. Two starters are likely out with cornerback Chidobe Awuzie doubtful with a groin and free safety Jessie Bates out with a neck injury. Backup safety Ricardo Allen, a free agent signing from Atlanta in the offseason, is on IR. Cincinnati gave up 297 passing yards last week (after surrendering 336 passing yards to the Vikings in Week One) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Jacksonville held a 19-10 lead against an undefeated Arizona team midway through the third quarter. A 29-yard interception returned for a touchdown near the end of the third quarter gave the Cardinals the lead for good. Turnovers are killing the Jaguars — their nine giveaways are most in the NFL. Lawrence has thrown seven interceptions already this season after not having a problem with picks in his college career at Clemson. Jacksonville had five net close losses within one scoring possession last season. They lost at home to Denver the previous week by a 23-13 score — but the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row by double-digits at home. Jacksonville did rush for 159 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Running the football will protect Lawrence from trying to do too much — and Chicago was able to rush for 123 yards against the Bengals in their only loss so far this season. Cincinnati was 29th in the NFL last year by allowing 148.0 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Meyer is not used to losing — and this is one of the most getable games on the Jacksonville schedule. With veteran offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and former Baltimore defensive backs coach Joe Cullen as the defensive coordinator, Meyer has a veteran staff with experience operating on a short week. This should be a close game against a Bengals team feeling very good about themselves. And Burrow is without one of his important weapons in wide receiver Tee Higgins who is out with a shoulder injury. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season with a 31-19 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (2-1) comes off a 24-10 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Jacksonville is scoring only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and generating just 315.0 total Yards-Per-Game so far this season. The defense has been the bigger concern as they are surrendering 30.3 PPG — but their nine turnovers have played a large role in that number. The Cardinals took the lead near the end of the third quarter last week with a 29-yard interception return for a touchdown. Holding Kyler Murray and the explosive Arizona offense to just 24 offensive points is encouraging. Jacksonville did give up 316 passing yards last week — but they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while their last two opponents have averaged 6.2 and 6.3 Yards-Per-Play, the Jaguars have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.0 YPP. Jacksonville goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Jaguars have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. The Bengals gained only 268 yards in their upset win on Sunday. They ran only 42 plays while the Steelers took 77 snaps under center — but they only gave up 342 yards to a Pittsburgh offense that generated only 4.4 YPP. Cincy converted only three of nine of their third-down opportunities — a disturbing continuation from last season when they were 30th in the NFL by converting 36.2% of their third-down opportunities. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bengals' last 5 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. I like quarterback Joe Burrow — and would like him even more if played behind an even average offensive line. The Bengals allowed 48 sacks last season — and they have surrendered 10 sacks so far this season despite the Steelers failing to sack Burrow even once. Cincinnati got the memo to run the ball more after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year just to keep Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals are running the ball 52% of the time. But that also means that they are scoring only 22.7 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 291.0 total YPG. Running the ball more is helping the Cincinnati defense since it is helping to keep them rested. The Bengals are allowing just 18.0 PPG along with 312.0 total YPG. They did give up 297 passing yards last week — but they have then played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Bengals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (498) and the Dallas Cowboys (497). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to rebound from their 17-11 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Don’t blame the Philly defense last week as they held the 49ers to just 306 yards and a mere 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Graham’s defense is allowing only 11.5 Points-Per-Game and 283.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles rushed for 151 yards in that game after rushing for 173 rushing yards in their opening win at Atlanta. Philadelphia has played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. The Eagles are going to run the football tonight — they are taking full advantage of Jalen Hurts’ skills as a rusher. But while Philly is averaging 381.0 total Yards-Per-Game, they are struggling to finish drives as they are scoring just 21.5 Points-Per-Game. The Eagles have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing on Monday Night Football. Dallas’ defense bent last week — but they did not break. They limited the Chargers to just 17 points despite Justin Herbert passing for 313 yards. Tom Brady passed for 379 yards in their opening game against Tampa Bay — but the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to pass for at least 300 yards. And while Dallas is allowing 419.5 total YPG this season, they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over a two-game stretch. The Cowboys have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow NFC East opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (498) and the Dallas Cowboys (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (498) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (497). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to rebound from their 17-11 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is highly valued by the betting public right now after following up their nationally-televised 2-point loss at Tampa Bay to open the season with an upset win on the road against Justin Herbert’s Chargers. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 69 home games when laying the points. Even if you like the potential of this Cowboys’ team, they have already been hit hard by injuries. Starting defensive linemen DeMarcus Lawrence and Neville Gallimore are both on IR. So is cornerback Kelvin Joseph, their second-round draft pick from Kentucky. Three more depth defensive linemen are out with injuries. Starting strong safety Donovan Wilson is doubtful with a groin injury. A COVID outbreak will keep linebacker Keanu Allen and defensive end Bradley Anae out tonight. On offense, right tackle La’el Collins is suspended for missing drug tests and backup tackle Ty Nsekhe is out with an illness. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is on IR and fellow starting wide receiver Amari Cooper is dealing with a ribs injury (but it looks like he will play). This is just a bunch of attrition for an organization that has not met point spread expectations in situations like this. Dallas did gain 419 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Cowboys allowed 408 yards to the Chargers — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Dallas defense gave up 431 yards to the Buccaneers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Philadelphia outgained the 49ers last week by a 328-306 margin despite only having the ball for 25:06 minutes of the game. They averaged 6.2 Yards-Per-Play while holding the Niners to just 4.0 YPP. They crushed Atlanta on the road in their opening game by a 32-6 score. This appears to be a well-coached team. Rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may not be ready for prime-time when it comes to televised press conferences, but his game plans have been sound — and the players seem to have completely bought in. Coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Graham have been effective. Graham’s defense is allowing only 11.5 Points-Per-Game and 283.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Steichen’s offense is generating 381.0 total YPG. They have schemed well for quarterback Jalen Hurts who has been effective with his passing and his rushing. The Eagles hit rock bottom last season but the impact of injuries should not be underestimated. Philadelphia was last in the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury on offense with the wide receiver and offensive line unites decimated. While right guard Brandon Brooks went on IR this week, the line is in much better shape now as is the wide receiver room which was bolstered with the drafting of DeVonta Smith in the first round. Sirianni inherited a pretty good roster. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games played on Monday Night Football. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 appearances on Monday Night Football. And in the Cowboys’ last 6 games against NFC East rivals, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (498) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (495) and the San Francisco 49ers (496). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (1-1) comes off a 35-17 win at home against Detroit as an 11.5-point favorite for Monday Night Football. San Francisco (2-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-11 victory at Philadelphia last Sunday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers found their offensive rhythm in the second half on Monday with three offensive touchdowns. Green Bay has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Now the Packers go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs as an underdog. Green Bay has also played a decisive 36 of their last 53 games Over the Total in September. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread win. The 49ers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 14 or fewer points. Now after playing their first two games on the road, they return home for the first time this season — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Packers have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (495) and the San Francisco 49ers (496). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (496) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (495). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-11 victory at Philadelphia last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (1-1) comes off a 35-17 win at home against Detroit as an 11.5-point favorite for Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers are dealing with injuries which is situation normal for head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco had 161.6 adjusted games lost to injury last season — and that is before looking at lost time because of COVID — which was the most games lost since the Chicago Bears in 2017. Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have done a great job in establishing depth and developing a next-man up mentality. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when favored under Shanahan’s leadership. While San Francisco led the NFL with 32 players in Injured Reserve last season, it was the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo that was the biggest loss. Much was made of the Niners selected quarterbacks Trey Lance as the third pick in the NFL, that pick said more about Garoppolo’s propensity to get injured than it did about his talent. Garoppolo led this team to a Super Bowl — and he is healthy right now. Lance offers the team a threat with his legs under center. After not playing much last week, don’t be surprised if Shanahan rope-a-doped the Packers’ coaching staff and will have some special Lance packages for this showdown. The 49ers have been hit hard with injuries at running back — but this is the position on the field most resilient to injuries. Ohio State rookie Trey Sermon oozes with talent after being picked in the third round — and Shanahan has claimed he has looked great in practice this week. The running game is predicated on the offensive line — and this unit is heathy and clicking for the Niners. San Francisco has allowed only one sack so far this season. The 49ers will be playing with revenge from their 34-17 loss at home to Green Bay last year — but that game was played on November 5th when the team was already decimated with injuries. San Francisco not only swept the Packers in their two meetings at Levi’s Stadium in the 2019-20 season, they overwhelmed them by a 74-28 scoring edge. The 49ers controlled the line of scrimmage in both games — and they rushed for 285 yards on 42 carries in the NFC Championship Game that year. Green Bay is soft — they struggle against physical teams. Their best chance of fighting back has been their good offensive line — but injuries and free agent defections leaves them without their three best lineman from the 2019-20 team that got embarrassed. ,b>All-Pro center Corey Linsley was allowed to sign with the Chargers. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered on December 31st. And now their emerging stud at left guard (playing left tackle for Bakhtiari), Elgton Jenkins, is out with an ankle which leaves them relying on Yosh Nijman on the left side. I think the Aaron Rodgers drama is a distraction that is eroding the chemistry and morale of this team — but do not underestimate the simple loss of talent on the offensive line for this team. Here comes Nick Bosa and three other former first round picks on the offensive line. In Rodgers’ last four games against the Niners since October 2018, he has been sacked 12 times while losing four fumbles. The Packers were losing at halftime against Detroit on Monday before the Lions’ failed fourth down within field goal range changed the momentum of that game. Green Bay’s defense has surrendered 17 points in the first half in each of their first two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after giving up 17 or more first half points in two straight contests. The Packers’ defense has registered only one sack this season. Cornerback Kenny King has become a liability after getting burned at the end of the first half against Tampa Bay in last year’s NFC Championship Game. Green Bay is also missing their second-best defensive player (to cornerback Jaire Alexander) in linebacker Za’Darius Smith who is on IR with a back injury. Former Michigan first-round draft pick Rashan Gary has disappointed in his development as a pass rusher. Now Green Bay goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The weight of losing two straight NFC Conference Championship Games seems to be too much for the Packers. General manager Brian Gutenkunst poured gasoline on this situation by wasting a precious first round draft pick (and the traded draft picks) for quarterback Jordan Love. Head coach Matt LaFleur demonstrated a lack of confidence in Rodgers by electing to kick a field goal down 8 points late in the NFC Championship Game against Tampa Bay despite being inside the 10-yard line. And now after the team claimed to “not ready to play” in San Francisco in the 2020 NFC Championship Game, this group is going to rally with all this going on — on a short week? I don’t think so. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the  San Francisco 49ers (496) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (495). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (492) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (491). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-0) won their second-straight game to start the season with their 27-24 win at Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite last week. Tampa Bay (2-0) comes off a 48-25 win against Atlanta as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): After Los Angeles demonstrated their potential with Matthew Stafford under center in the first week of the season, they played poorly last week but did enough to beat the Colts. Indianapolis recovered a fumble in the end zone to score a touchdown to keep the game close. The Rams have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles did generate 371 yards against the Colts defense — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home to SoFi Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. The Los Angeles Rams defense led the NFL by holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG and 281.9 total YPG — and they led the league by holding their opponent’s to just 4.6 Yards-Per-Play. They are allowing 19.0 PPG so far this season. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by two or more touchdowns. I do worry about the Super Bowl hangover effect for this team. This is a team that already had the most game-to-game variance using the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders. They were up by a 27-24 score against the winless Falcons early in the fourth quarter. They needed Tom Brady heroics with less than two minutes left in the game to rally to defeat the Cowboys at home. Now the Buccaneers play their first game of the season on the road — and with the looming media circus drama upcoming the following week when the team travels to New England in Brady’s first game back in Foxboro against the Patriots. Tampa Bay lost only 30.6 adjusted games to injury last season — the lowest number in the league. But they will be without pass rush special Jason Pierre-Paul to injury and wide receiver Antonio Brown to the COVID list for this showdown.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record under McVay. This is a statement game for McVay’s team — but it is just another game to the Super Bowl champions. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-LA Rams’ Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (492) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (491). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (487) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (488). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-1) looks to pick themselves off the mat after a 35-0 loss at home to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in their 26-17 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a situation too good to pass up despite some injury and offensive line concerns. I am trusting the process — and the wisdom of the point spread — in this one. The Dolphins were completely flat last week in their divisional loss to the Bills. They may have been suffering the hangover of returning from New England where they just beat the Patriots. The early injury to Tua Tagovailoa did not help matters. But Miami ran into a buzzsaw that was an angry Bills team coming off an upset loss to Pittsburgh. There is nothing like an NFL team getting shut out that will generate attentive minds in practice the next week. In Brian Flores, I Trust in righting the Dolphins’ ship this week. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 11 games after surrendering at least 30 points, Miami has covered the point spread 10 times. The Dolphins have a good defense that was tied for fifth in the league by allowing 21.1 PPG last season. Miami led the NFL in third-down defense, three-and-outs, and yards allowed per drive, and takeaways last season. They were also fourth in the league in Red Zone points allowed. They held the Bills to just 314 yards last week despite the 35 points. After gaining only 214 total yards, the Dolphins need to reconfigure their offense. Flores has overseen the reshuffling of their offensive line. Getting wide receiver Will Fuller into the mix after the former Houston Texan missed the opening two games help — he is a speedster who had eight touchdowns in eleven games last year. Fuller alongside rookie Jaylen Waddle could be a game-changer for this offense. Jacoby Brissett completed only 24 of 40 passes for 169 yards in relief last week — but the veteran is one of the better backups in the league with 32 career starts. He has tossed 31 career touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions — and he adds a threat with his legs. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 straight road games with the Total set at 42.5 to 45 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas may be due for an emotional letdown after pulling off two straight upset victories. We had the Raiders in their home opener with fans finally in Allegiant Stadium in their Monday night upset win against Baltimore. And while most of the world faded Las Vegas last week at Pittsburgh, we successfully avoided that trap (the Steelers' side of that situation was unappealing). Now the Raiders return home triumphant heroes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after two straight upset wins. Las Vegas has not been a reliable favorite under head coach Jon Gruden. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. They will likely be without starting running back Josh Jacobs and right guard Richie Incognito. Missing Jacobs will put more pressure on Derek Carr.  the Raiders only rushed for 52 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while Carr has passed for at least 373 yards in his first two games, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. The Raiders’ defense has played better (the August acquisitions of linebackers K.J. Wright and Denzel Perryman was massive for this team to overcome general manager Mike Mayock’s whiffs in the draft) — but I am not sold that this is an elite unit quite yet. Baltimore gained 406 yards against them before Ben Roethlisberger passed for 292 yards last week.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Raiders. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (487) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (415) and the Washington Huskies (416). THE SITUATION: California (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 42-30 victory against Sacramento State as a 23.5-point favorite. Washington (1-2) got their first victory of the year last week as well after their 52-3 win against Arkansas State as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies only scored 17 combined points in their first two games against Eastern Washington and Michigan before their offensive outburst against the Red Wolves. But the Under is 11-4-1 in Washington’s last 16 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total at home after scoring at least 42 points. The Huskies generated 598 yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Head coach Jimmy Lake is a defensive coach who wears “Run the Damn Ball” baseball caps to communicate his philosophy. He hired the former Penn State offensive coordinator John Donovan who could not get work after a failed stint there under head coach James Franklin before being replaced by Joe Moorehead who had an immediate impact on the their offensive production by bringing the Nittany Lions into the 21st century. Sophomore Dylan Morris has been inconsistent this season but he does come off his best game. What remains dominant is the Washington defense that has elite future NFL talent in defensive end Zion Tupola-Fetui and cornerback Trent McDuffie. Washington is allowing only 15.7 PPG and 295.7 total YPG. They held Arkansas State to just 268 total yards — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the Huskies’ last 26 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore. Washington has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games in September Under the Total. Cal rushed for 248 yards last week in their victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 200 yards. The Golden Bears will look to run the football in this game to control time of possession. Quarterback Chase Garbers completed 22 of 34 passes for 288 yards last week — and Cal has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Bears gave up 467 yards last week to Sacramento State — but they have then played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after giving up at least 450 yards in their last contest. Head coach Justin Wilcox returns eight starters from a unit that held their opponent’s 67 Yards-Per-Game below their season average, 18th best in the nation. Cal goes back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have upset the Huskies in the last two meetings between these two teams with 39 and 22 combined points scored in those games. These two teams have played 10 of 11 meetings Under the Total including 6 straight Unders when playing in Seattle. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (415) and the Washington Huskies (416). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (387) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (388). THE SITUATION: UTSA (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-13 victory against Middle Tennessee as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. Memphis (3-0) comes off a 31-28 upset win at home against Mississippi State as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers were very fortunate to pull off the upset victory against an SEC opponent last week. They needed a 49-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 94-yard punt return for a touchdown to overcome them getting outgained by -222 net yards. Memphis only gained 246 yards and 12 first downs in the game. Now off the emotional high from a signature win against a Power-Five conference opponent and with a date at conference rival Temple next week, this is a dangerous sandwich game against a talented UTSA squad that has had this game circled to make the statement they hope to make this season. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. After Brady White graduated, head coach Ryan Silverfield hoped to place another former Arizona State transfer under center in Grant Gunnell — but a preseason leg injury has kept him out of action. Silverfield has turned to true freshman Seth Henigan as his starting quarterback. While the rookie has passed for 841 yards, he struggled last week by passing for just 159 yards despite completing 16 of 28 passes. The running game did not offer much help either as the Tigers ran for just 87 yards on 25 carries. The Memphis pass defense has been exposed so far this season as well — they rank 102nd in opponent’s Pass Success Rate and 82nd in Havoc Rate. The Tigers do have a 17-game winning streak at home at the Liberty Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. UTSA wants to claim the prize of being the best Group of Five teams in the nation. Second-year head coach Jeff Taylor has 21 starters back from the team that finished 7-5 that only lost to Louisiana by a 31-24 score in the First Responder Bowl. They opened their season by upsetting Illinois on the road. The Roadrunners returned their top 14 tacklers from last year and added three transfers from Power-Five programs. They held the Blue Raiders to just 199 yards last week. The offense has all five starters back on the offensive line plus both quarterbacks who played last year. Dual-threat Frank Harris ran for 56 yards last week — and he completed 24 of 39 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes. Running back Sincere McCormick rushed for 1476 yards last season. Traylor did not have the benefit of spring practices due to COVID — so this season has presented his first offseason with the program from the former SMU running backs coach. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Roadrunners have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. UTSA wants to make a similar statement that the Tigers were fortunate to make last week. With Memphis perhaps looking ahead to American Athletic Conference play — and relying on a true freshman in what may become an anxious game — don’t be surprised if the Roadrunners pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (387) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (390) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). THE SITUATION: TCU (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 34-32 win against California two weeks ago as an 11.5-point favorite. SMU (3-0) is also unbeaten this year after their 39-37 win at Louisiana Tech last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU outgained the Golden Bears by a 505-442 yardage mark two weeks ago — but Max Duggan throwing an 84-yard interception that was returned for a touchdown helped Cal stay competitive in the game. TCU controlled possession for 36:23 minutes in the game which is a good sign for head coach Gary Patterson. The extra week to rest and prepare for the Mustangs will help the defensive mastermind shore up a unit that gave up an uncharacteristic 442 total yards. TCU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 68 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Horned Frogs gained 505 total yards against Cal — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. TCU’s offense had to overcome many injuries early in the season last year. After a rough 1-3 start, the Horned Frogs finished strong by winning five of their last six games — so they enter this contest on a seven of eight-run overall. Duggan is a third-year sophomore quarterback who looks poised for a breakout season. He completed 17 of 31 passes for 2234 yards with three touchdowns against Cal while adding 71 rushing yards with another touchdown on the ground. Running back Zach Evans added 190 rushing yards in that game. The Horned Frogs’ defense should play better with seven starters back from the unit that allowed 24.2 PPG and 351 total Yards-Per-Game. TCU hosts this game where they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when favored. SMU got a 33-yard hail mary touchdown pass from quarterback Tanner Mordecai on the final play of the game to avoid being upset by Louisiana Tech last weekend. But the Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road after a victory where they did not cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 21 games after a close win decided by three points or less. The defense for head coach Sonny Dykes looks to be a problem once again this season. After giving up 506 yards to North Texas two weeks ago, Louisiana Tech generated 483 yards. Now they face another spread offensive attack but now with Power-Five conference recruits. The deeper metrics indict the unit. The Mustangs are just 88th in the nation in Adjusted Line Yards allowed indicating their struggles in stopping the run. They rank 74th in opponent’s Success Rate against the pass — and they are just 96th in Havoc Rate on defense. They have allowed 384 and 351 passing yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. SMU stays on the road for the second straight week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Patterson has had two weeks to pound into his team the memory of their 41-38 loss at home to SMU back on September 21st in the last meeting between these two teams. TCU was a 7.5-point favorite in that game. 25* CFB Saturday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (390) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (308) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (307). THE SITUATION: Virginia (2-1) lost the first game of their season last Saturday with their 59-39 loss at North Carolina as a 7.5-point underdog. Wake Forest (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-14 victory at home against Florida State as a 4.5-point favorite as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia was facing a Tar Heels team already with one loss on the season highly motivated to avenge a loss from last year — so that was a tough situation (and we had North Carolina in that one). The Cavaliers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Virginia generated 574 yards against the Tar Heels defense in the loss — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Cavaliers return home where they have won 19 of their last 21 games under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia may have been just 5-5 last year in the season impacted by COVID following their big 2019 campaign where they made it to the ACC Championship Game and played in the Orange Bowl — but they were 5-1 straight-up at home. The Cavaliers are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. Virginia is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Mendenhall has 14 starters back plus some high-profile transfers back this season that won four of their last five games after a rough 1-4 start in an injury-riddled campaign. Junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong is back after he passed for at least 200 yards while rushing for at least 45 yards six times last year. He completed 39 of 54 passes for 554 yards with four touchdown passes against North Carolina last week. The play of the Virginia defense should improve under Mendenhall who is one of the best defensive teachers in the nation. The Cavaliers are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest comes off a big win against a reeling Seminoles team that remains winless this season — and they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin in that contest. Now the Demon Deacons play their first game away from Winston Salem this season — and they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road this season. Wake Forest has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Demon Deacons are tough to beat at home where they now have an 11-2 straight-up record in the last three seasons — but they have only won three of their last eleven games on the road during that span. Head coach Dave Clawson has 19 starters back from the group that finished 4-5 last year after a 45-28 loss to Wisconsin in the Mayo Bowl. Wake Forest was 3-4 in ACC play — but they were outgained by -55 net Yards-Per-Game. They were also outscored by -23 Points-Per-Game in their eight games against FBS opponents last year. They allowed 37 or more points five times last season. Their first two games this season were against Old Dominion and Norfolk State before their victory against Florida State last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia will be motivated to avenge a 40-23 loss at Wake Forest as a 2.5-point underdog last season on October 17th. After the Cavaliers lost to a one-loss Tar Heels team playing at home with the opportunity to avenge a loss from last year, now Virginia finds themselves in that same spot. While that scenario is certainly not an auto-bet situation, the Cavaliers are tough at home at Scott Stadium and the Demon Deacons struggle on the road. 25* CFB Friday Television Game of the Month with the Virginia Cavaliers (308) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (302) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (301). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-1) looks to rebound from a 31-21 loss at Cleveland as a 13.5-point underdog on Sunday. Carolina (2-0) comes into this game after a 26-7 upset win against New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: The Panthers are the toast of the NLF right now with their 2-0 start after their decisive victory against the Saints. But that win against New Orleans was against a team that was without eight coaches due to a COVID outbreak — wreaking havoc on their in-game coaching, sideline management, and who knows what else. The Saints were also dealing with some tough injuries on defense with Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Davenport, and Kwon Alexander all out. The Panthers held New Orleans to just 128 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Sam Darnold has played well so far in his liberation from the Jets and Adam Gase — but this will be his first game in a hostile environment after Carolina’s first two games were at home. The schedule for the Panthers has been fortunate with them hosting the hapless Jets and then the undermanned Saints last week. While the defensive numbers have improved, this remains a team that was bottom-five in opponents rushing Yards-Per-Carry for two straight seasons. Carolina was 27th in Red Zone Offense and 30th in goal-to-go situations last season despite having wunderkind Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator last year. The Panthers’ defense was second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to convert on 49.2% of their third downs. I am just not ready to buy that Carolina should be laying more than a touchdown on the road in a short week. As it is, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games playing on a Thursday Night. Houston beat Jacksonville at home before covering the point spread but losing to the Browns on the road last week. The Texans will be without starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor who will be out at least four weeks after being put on IR for a hamstring injury. That means rookie Davis Mills will be the starting quarterback. The third-round pick from Stanford has upside — but he is raw after not playing much in his collegiate career after COVID shortened his junior season as a Cardinal to just five games. Houston is not going to ask Mills to win this game with his arm — they will likely deploy their rushing attack behind Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and David Johnson being a solid offensive line that features Laremy Tunsil at left tackle and Tytus Howard at right tackle. Mills completed 8 of 18 passes for 102 yards with a touchdown and an interception in relief of Taylor last week. In the preseason, Mills completed 31 of 65 yards for 333 yards with two touchdowns (and four interceptions). There have been comparisons with him and Andrew Luck besides the obvious same alma mater. Mills is smart and has arm talent — offensive coordinator Tim Kelly will likely not ask him to do more than what he is capable of. They prepared for this possibility/eventuality of Mills playing in the preseason — so the short week probably helps the Texans than it does the Panthers in preparing for the new quarterback.

FINAL TAKE: Houston is a mess of a franchise with the Deshaun Watson issues and the creepy Jack Easterby having too much influence over team decisions despite having no football background. This is an Island of Misfit Toys — but they have brought in a bunch of castoff veterans who have bought in 65-year-old rookie head coach David Culley. This team is going to play hard — and they have covered the point spread 4 straight games as an underdog. Carolina is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games as a favorite. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (302) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (301) and the Houston Texans (302). THE SITUATION: Carolina (2-0) comes into this game after a 26-7 upset win against New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Houston (1-1) looks to rebound from a 31-21 loss at Cleveland as a 13.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Houston has also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Texans will be without starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor who will be out at least four weeks after being put on IR for a hamstring injury. That means rookie Davis Mills will be the starting quarterback. The third-round pick from Stanford has upside — but he is raw after not playing much in his collegiate career after COVID shortened his junior season as a Cardinal to just five games. Houston is not going to ask Mills to win this game with his arm — they will likely deploy their rushing attack behind Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and David Johnson being a solid offensive line that features Laremy Tunsil at left tackle and Tytus Howard at right tackle. The Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Houston defense did give up 156 rushing yards last week to the Browns ground game — but the Texans have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Houston added 19 free agents on defense in the offseason for new defensive coordinator Lovie Smith to revamp a unit that allowed 29.0 PPG. Carolina has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread victory. The Panthers have also played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after an upset win against an NFC South opponent. Sam Darnold has played well for the team in his first two starts after coming over after his failed stint with the New York Jets. But this will be his first start on the road for Carolina. The Panthers averaged only 5.25 Yards-Per-Play while gaining 373 yards last week while controlling the clock for 38:32 minutes of their win against the Saints. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they only rushed for 89 yards against New Orleans, they have played 5 straight Unders after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Second-year head coach Matt Rhule is likely to lean on running back Christian McCaffrey in this game with this being Darnold’s first start on the road. Expect plenty of running from both teams and stalled drives in the red zone from both these quarterbacks. The one unit that appears reliable is the Carolina defense that has allowed only 21 points in there first two games. Rhule’s commitment to youth last year seems to have paid off — the Panthers led the NFL with 287 tackles from rookies last season. Third-year defensive end Brian Burns out of Florida State appears to be a rising superstar in the league. The Panthers have allowed only 47 rushing yards on 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have already generated 10 sacks. They are giving up only 190 total YPG — and they are facing a rookie quarterback without too many starts in college. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when favored — and the Texans have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (301) and the Houston Texans (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (297) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (298). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-1) enters this game coming off a 41-33 loss to San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 38-3 upset loss against New Orleans in Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers were complacent traveling to Jacksonville to play a Saints team learning to live life without Drew Brees. And when teams get close to winning a championship, they can get lulled into thinking the first game of the new season is the continuation of the previous season — so they can just flip the switch. Green Bay has lost in the NFC Championship Game two years in a row. After a tumultuous offseason where Aaron Rodgers threatened retirement, the culture inside the room is not very good for this team. But this team was still in first place after Week One with all four of the NFC North teams losing. Now returning home to host Detroit, I do not see the team suddenly embracing a sense of urgency. I will not be surprised if they remain somewhat complacent tonight. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Despite winning 13 games in the regular season last year, they only outgained their opponents by +55.0 net Yards-Per-Game — and that is not the formula to cover a point spread this big. A strength of this team has been their offensive line — but they are now without two All-Pros from last year with left tackle Davis Bakhtiari on IR and center Corey Linsley gone in free agency. But the defense of the Packers is perhaps the bigger issue. After nose tackle Kenny Clark and cornerback Jaire Alexander, the talent level of this group assembled by general manager Brian Gutekunst is questionable — and they are dealing with injuries. Linebacker Za’Darius Smith is on Injured Reserve and depth safety Vernon Scott is out with a hamstring. Additionally, starting safety Darnell Savage is questionable with a shoulder leaving the Pack thin at the position. LaFleur hired Joe Barry, the former defensive coordinator of the winless Lions team under Rod Marinelli as his defensive coordinator. At least Marinelli had the excuse of Barry being his son-in-law. Barry has never coached a defense that finished better than 27th in total defense in his time with Detroit and later with Washington. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. It was encouraging for the Lions not ever giving up as they scored 33 points and gained 430 yards against the stout San Francisco defense. Quarterback Jared Goff was effective even without being scripted to death by boy-genius Sean McVay. Goff completed 38 of 57 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns operating the Anthony Lynn-coached offense. Wide receiver Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol and out for this game — but his presence on the field was never going to transform this Lions’ offense. Detroit is going to run the football and pass the ball to tight end T.J. Hockenson before looking for open wide receivers — and a majority of their points last week was after the former Raiders’ wide receiver left the game. The Lions have an underrated offensive line — and rookie Penei Sewell thrived at left tackle replacing the injured Taylor Decker. After struggling in the preseason in making the move to right tackle, Sewell eased back into the left tackle slot and handled Nick Bosa. D’Andre Swift is expected to play tonight at running back joining a dynamic duo with Jamaal Williams.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the NFC. Detroit is undervalued right now — while this is not a playoff team, this organization is so much better off simply by getting rid of Patricia and Quinn. The players hated them both, and that impacted how hard they would play. This group is playing hard for Campbell, who they think is one of them. Addition by subtraction. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (297) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (297) and the Green Bay Packers (298). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-1) enters this game coming off a 41-33 loss to San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 38-3 upset loss against New Orleans in Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers were out-of-synch last week against the Saints. New Orleans took them out of their game in the first half of that game by running the ball and controlling the time of possession. Green Bay was only on offense for 25:24 minutes in that game. Back at home in Lambeau Field on national television, the Packers should start fast and remain furious all night. The Packers have played 45 of their last 70 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 6 points in their last contest. And while Green Bay managed only 3 points in the first half last week, they have then played a decisive 43 of their last 60 games Over the Total after not scoring more than a field goal in their last game. But the defense of the Packers is an issue. After nose tackle Kenny Clark and cornerback Jaire Alexander, the talent level of this group assembled by general manager Brian Gutekunst is questionable — and they are dealing with injuries. Linebacker Za’Darius Smith is on Injured Reserve and depth safety Vernon Scott is out with a hamstring. Additionally, starting safety Darnell Savage is questionable with a shoulder leaving the Pack thin at the position. LaFleur hired Joe Barry, the former defensive coordinator of the winless Lions team under Rod Marinelli as his defensive coordinator. At least Marinelli had the excuse of Barry being his son-in-law. Barry has never coached a defense that finished better than 27th in total defense in his time with Detroit and later with Washington. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Over the Total in September. Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in September after last week’s game that saw 74 combined points scored. The Lions have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Detroit was last in the NFL last season by allowing 32.4 PPG and 419.8 total YPG in the last year under defensive wunderkind Matt Patricia. He inherited a unit that allowed 23.5 PPG. It will take time for the stink of Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn to leave this organization. One of Quinn’s mistakes was drafting Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah when Justin Herbert was available in the 2020 draft. Okudah is now out the season after an Achilles tear last week — and while he has underperformed his top-three draft pick status, it is still a significant loss in the secondary. The 49ers gained 442 yards against them. But what was encouraging was the Lions not giving up as they scored 33 points and gained 430 yards against the stout San Francisco defense. Quarterback Jared Goff was effective even without being scripted to death by boy-genius Sean McVay. Goff completed 38 of 57 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns operating the Anthony Lynn-coached offense. Wide receiver Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol and out for this game — but his presence on the field was never going to transform this Lions’ offense. Detroit is going to run the football and pass the ball to tight end T.J. Hockenson before looking for open wide receivers — and a majority of their points last week was after the former Raiders’ wide receiver left the game. The Lions have an underrated offensive line — and rookie Penei Sewell thrived at left tackle replacing the injured Taylor Decker. After struggling in the preseason making the move to right tackle, Sewell eased back into the left tackle slots and handled Nick Bosa. D’Andre Swift is expected to play tonight at running back joining a dynamic duo with Jamaal Williams. Detroit has played 4 straight Overs after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against NFC North opponents — and the Packer have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (297) and the Green Bay Packers (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (295) and the Baltimore Ravens (296). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (1-0) comes off a 33-29 win against Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (0-1) looks to rebound from their 33-29 upset loss in overtime at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs started slow last week by scoring only 10 points in the first 30 minutes of that game. But Patrick Mahomes did what he needed to do in the second half to lead his team to the comeback victory after trailing by 12 points at halftime. Kansas City scored 29.6 PPG last season and they ended up topping that number against a good Browns defense. The Chiefs also led the NFL last season by generating 415.8 total YPG. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Mahomes’ final numbers once again looked great — he completed 27 of 36 passes for 337 yards and three touchdowns. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Mahomes plays a Wink Martindale-coached defense who led the league by blitzing on 44.1% of their opponents’ dropbacks — and Mahomes is notorious for shredding defenses that blitz him since he is mobile enough to create extra time to exploit the pass coverage that is down at least one man. Mahomes has been incredible in his career in his September games. He entered the regular season with a 124.4 Passer Rating in September while completing 67.6% of his passes. He now has 35 touchdown passes and no interceptions in September. But of concern is the Chiefs’ defense that allowed 457 yards to the Browns last week. The deeper analytics exposed the KC defense as worse than their raw numbers suggest. They ranked 22nd last season in the Football Outsiders DVOA numbers — and they were 31st in run defense DVOA. There is a fundamental flaw with the Chiefs’ defense with their reliance on linebacker William Gay. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo needs Gay on the field to help shore up his run defense — yet he is a liability in the pass coverage. KC was second-to-last in the NFL last season in DVOA in pass coverage against running backs. These are weaknesses that the Baltimore run-oriented offensive attack can exploit. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Kansas City has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Ravens are ravaged with injuries — they are without lockdown cornerback Marcus Peters (a crushing loss for this matchup) after his season-ending torn ACL. They are also without linebacker L.J. Fort who is on IR — and four players in the two-deep are questionable including starting defensive end Derek Wolfe and starting cornerback Jimmy Smith. Derek Carr passed for 409 yards against them on Monday en route to the Raiders’ 491 total yards. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards — and they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Ravens still have quarterback Lamar Jackson who accounted for 321 total yards combined from the air and ground last week. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens will be looking to avenge a 34-20 loss at home to the Chiefs on September 20th last season. What was memorable from that game was how aggressive John Harbaugh was regarding going for it on fourth down and attempting 2-point conversions. He leads the way with the mentality that beating KC is a race to score at least 35 points. That is the formula for another Over between these two teams. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (295) and the Baltimore Ravens (296). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (296) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (295). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-1) looks to rebound from their 33-29 upset loss in overtime at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Kansas City (1-0) comes off a 33-29 win against Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs overcame a slow start at home against the Browns by rallying from their 12-point halftime deficit to win that game. But Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. But of concern is the Chiefs’ defense that allowed 457 yards to the Browns last week. The deeper analytics exposed the KC defense as worse than their raw numbers suggest. They ranked 22nd last season in the Football Outsiders DVOA numbers — and they were 31st in run defense DVOA. There is a fundamental flaw with the Chiefs’ defense with their reliance on linebacker William Gay. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo needs Gay on the field to help shore up his run defense — yet he is a liability in the pass coverage. KC was second-to-last in the NFL last season in DVOA in pass coverage against running backs. These are weaknesses that the Baltimore run-oriented offensive attack can exploit. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Kansas City goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Baltimore averaged 6.3 Yards-Per-Play last week en route to ganging 406 yards against the Raiders. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after generating at least 6.0 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. Quarterback Lamar Jackson accounted for 321 total yards combined from the air and ground last week. But the Baltimore defense gave up 491 yards in that game with Las Vegas playing catchup all night before winning the game in OT. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Baltimore is dealing with many injuries — but head coach John Harbaugh is fully committed to the “next man up” mentality.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog — and the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (296) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (295). Best of luck for us — Frank.