At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (345) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (346). THE SITUATION: Cal (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 22-17 upset loss to Nevada last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. TCU (1-0) comes off a 45-3 thrashing of Duquesne last week as a 42-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal jumped out to a 13-point lead before going away from their rushing attack that was finding success. Red Zone problems played a role as well — but coaches often find they see the biggest jump in execution from the first to the second game of the season. The Golden Bears are not always reliable favorites — but they have consistently overachieved under head coach Justin Wilcox when getting the points. Cal has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games as an underdog with twelve upset wins. They have pulled off seven upsets over that span when getting more than a touchdown. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as a dog since 2019 with six outright wins. Wilcox has seventeen starters back from the team that finished a disappointing 1-3. They have a third-year starting quarterback in Chase Garbers. Cal has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. TCU took care of business against their FCS opponent last week — but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Horned Frogs have eighteen starters back from their 6-4 campaign last year. But TCU has not been a reliable favorite when played at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Horned Frogs are just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games when getting 10.5 to 14 points. 10* CFB Cal-TCU ESPNU Special with the California Golden Bears (345) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (346). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (451). THE SITUATION: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) won the Super Bowl on their home field at Raymond James Stadium — and their first game defending that championship will be in the same building tonight. Dallas (0-0) comes off a 6-10 season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has all 22 starters back from last year’s Super Bowl team (although Whitehead is out). After their bye week in Week Twelve, Tom Brady sat down with head coach Bruce Arians to tinker with the offensive game-planning to incorporate more of the concepts that Brady thrived in when playing in New England: more play-action pass, more pre-snap motion, and a bigger commitment to running the football earlier in the game. In their last eight games including their four playoff contests, the Buccaneers scored 33.9 PPG while reaching the 30-point threshold seven times. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season.

FINAL TALE: Dallas will likely be without right guard Zach Martin who is on their COVID list — and that does not help their cause against the outstanding Buccaneers’ pass rush. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC foes. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) comes of a 6-10 campaign last season. Tampa Bay (0-0) won their final eight games last season culminating in their 31-23 win over Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys get Dak Prescott back on the field to begin the regular season after he missed the final eleven games of the year last year after he fractured his right ankle. Prescott had a shoulder issue in the preseason that kept him from playing in the preseason, but the reports are that he has looked good in practice this week after resting his arm for the last few weeks. Prescott was on a record-setting pace in generating passing yards last year before the injury — he had passed for 1856 yards in five games. Dallas was scoring over 33 Points-Per-Game and generating more than 490 Yards-Per-Game in Prescott’s five games before his season-ending injury. He might have the best wide receiver corps in the NFL with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Cee Dee Lamb who may be on the verge of a breakout season. Prescott will be passing against a Buccaneers’ secondary that will be without starting strong safety Jordan Whitehead who is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Tampa Bay defense was great in the playoffs last year — but pass defense was their biggest vulnerability. They ranked 21st in the NFL by allowing 244.6 passing YPG. Dallas will likely be without their star right guard Zack Martin who is in COVID quarantine — but right tackle La’el Collins is expected to play after dealing with a stinger injury. Conner McGovern is a quality backup who will take Martin’s spot if he tests positive on game day. Martin’s absence hurts — but the loss takes more away from the run game than the passing attack. The Cowboys will likely be relying on their passing game given the state of the defense that first-year defensive coordinator Dan Quinn inherited. They allowed 29.6 PPG last season. Dallas has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when the Total set in at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 8 games in the opening month of the season, Dallas has played 5 of these games Over the Total. Tampa Bay has all 22 starters back from last year’s Super Bowl team (although Whitehead is out). After their bye week in Week Twelve, Tom Brady sat down with head coach Bruce Arians to tinker with the offensive game-planning to incorporate more of the concepts that Brady thrived in when playing in New England: more play-action pass, more pre-snap motion, and a bigger commitment to running the football earlier in the game. In their last eight games including their four playoff contests, the Buccaneers scored 33.9 PPG while reaching the 30-point threshold seven times. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Buccaneers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season Over the Total. And in their last 10 appearances on Thursday Night Football. Tampa Bay has played 7 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC — and Tampa Bay has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total against conference opponents. The Buccaneers should score at least 30 points and the Cowboys should score at least 20 points playing catchup trying to stay within single digits. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (225) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (226). THE SITUATION: Louisville (0-0) returns thirteen starters from their team that finished 4-7 last season. Mississippi (0-0) has seventeen starters back from the team that completed their 5-5 campaign with a 26-20 victory over Indiana in the Outback Bowl. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville overachieved in their first season under head coach Scott Satterfield — but they underachieved last year by settling with a 4-7 record. The Cardinals outgained their opponents in yardage in nine of their eleven games — but turnovers often neutralized that edge. Louisville had their offensive possessions end in a turnover 18.2% of the time, the sixth-worst mark in the FBS. With 24 turnovers, the Cardinals had a -12 net turnover margin that overwhelmed their +75 net YPG clip. Louisville appears to be moving in the right direction on the field under Satterfield. They got in seven of their fourteen spring practices last year before COVID shut things down — but a full offseason should help the coaching staff address this problem. Junior quarterback Malik Cunningham was the main culprit — he threw 12 interceptions and lost another three fumbles. A year of maturity should help. He will be playing behind the best Cardinals’ offensive line in years with four starters back and another four with starting experience including a transfer from Virginia Tech. The defense has improved under Satterfield as well — Louisville ranked 39th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.1 total YPG. Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. His teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral field going back to his time at Appalachian State. Mississippi has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the first month of the season — and Lane Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of his team’s last 16 games played in the first two weeks of the season. Kiffin had an immediate impact on the offense last season in his first year with the program — but that success may have raised expectations too high for bettors this season. It is just not likely that this team will average 555.5 total YPG again — third-best in the FBS. I don’t like the circumstances regarding Kiffin dismissing his offensive line coach days after spring practice ended. And Kiffin will not be on the sidelines tonight after testing positive for COVID. I don’t think his absence hurts the offense much — but he is a great play-caller, so there will be key moments in the game when the team needs a big play where they will not have insight. The Rebels’ defense is the real concern after they allowed 38.3 PPG and 519.0 total YPG last year — ranking 117th and 126th in the FBS. The unit lacks the size and grit in their front seven after years of a recruiting decline at the position when the program imploded under head coach Hugh Freeze. Senior linebacker Jacquez Jones’ late spring decision to transfer to Kentucky does not help the situation. Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in expected high-scoring shootouts where the Total was set at 70 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents — and Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Louisville-Mississippi ESPN Special with the Louisville Cardinals (225) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (223) and the Florida State Seminoles (224). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns eight starters from the team that finished 10-2 after losing to Alabama by a 31-14 score in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Florida State (0-0) has fourteen starters back from the group that finished 3-6 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Brian Kelly has settled into a reliable formula to get the most out of his talent in South Bend. Kelly has overseen some elite defenses coached by the best young defensive minds in college football while operating a ball-control run-first offense that limits mistakes and burns time off the clock. With only three starters back on offense and starting over with the offensive line with just one starter back, Kelly is likely to be happy to grind out games early in the season — especially when he thinks he has an edge in talent. If there was any doubt about this approach, it should have been rescinded when he brought in senior graduate transfer Jack Coan. The former Wisconsin quarterback was the epitome of the game-manager when playing for the Badgers. He completed nearly 70% of his passes in 2019, the year he led Wisconsin to ten wins and the Rose Bowl. But he is not about to air out for the Irish — and, even if Kelly had a change of personality, Notre Dame does not have the established talent at wide receiver to embrace that strategy in the opening game of the season. Notre Dame has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the first two games of the season. Kelly lost his star defensive coordinator, Clark Lea, who took the head coaching job at Vanderbilt. But Kelly might have poached the best defensive coordinator in the country at a Group of Five program when inked Cincinnati’s Marcus Freeman to take over the Notre Dame defense. Freeman has an All-American he can rely on his secondary in junior free safety Kyle Hamilton. The defensive front for the Irish should be stout again with two returning starters and two blue-chippers being promoted to a unit that was sixth in the FBS last year by generating a tackle-for-loss at a 12.1% rate last season. Notre Dame was 14th in the nation by allowing 19.7 PPG. With six starters back and young talent ready to take on new roles, it will be difficult for this Seminoles team to top that number. The Irish offense is not likely to match their 33.4 PPG scoring average from last year — especially when playing on the road. Notre Dame has played a decisive 37 of their last 57 games Under the Total against ACC opponents — including four of their last five games from last season in their dalliance with the conference as a one-time member given the pandemic. Florida State should be much better on defense after a full set of practices in the spring and fall under head coach Mike Norvell in his second year with the program. Norvell and defensive coordinator Adam Fuller only had three spring practices with their new team last year. Fuller did a fine job of improving the defense at Memphis when Norvell hired him for that job the prior season. The Seminoles allowed 36.0 Points-Per-Game which was the most in school history. Seven starters are back — and Norvell brought in five impact transfers including Georgia defensive end Jermaine Johnson and South Carolina nickel back Jammie Robinson. Florida State was also hit hard by COVID throughout the season before injuries, transfers, and opt-outs compounded the problem. Some teams just need a mulligan from last year — and Norvell’s Seminoles is likely one of them. His teams have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season. He is not naming his starting quarterback until tonight — but he is likely to use both McKenzie Milton and Jordan Travis. Milton is the former Central Florida quarterback who suffered a devastating knee injury. Travis was one of the four quarterbacks Norvell used last season. Both have upside — but this offense will be a work-in-progress still.

FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles have played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total when an underdog getting up to seven points. Expect a lower-scoring game between these two teams. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Florida State ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (223) and the Florida State Seminoles (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (207). THE SITUATION: Clemson (0-0) returns 14 starters from the team that finished 10-2 after a 49-28 loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Georgia (0-0) has 13 starters back from their 8-2 campaign last year which ended with them beating Cincinnati by a 24-21 score in the Peach Bowl. This game will be played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia recruits like a National Championship team. In terms of core talent, the Bulldogs rosters compare with Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State in the Kirby Smart era. Yet this program cannot yet get over the hump — and that nagging insecurity will not help them in this opening heavyweight fight. Smart realized that he needed to evolve his offense — so he brought in offensive coordinator Todd Monken who was able to match his schemes with quarterback J.T. Daniels when the former USC transfer took over under center. What took so long to make that change from Stetson Bennett? The losses to Florida and Alabama? Daniels is a former 5-star recruit — but he was losing favor with the Trojans even before his knee injury that kept him out a year. He is lacking weapons for this showdown. His favorite target last year was George Pickens who caught 23 balls for 373 yards after Daniels assumed the starting QB duties. Pickens suffered a torn ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent at wide receiver — but the group is young and the cohesion with Daniels is not as developed. Georgia has a great tight ends room with sophomore Darnell Washington and LSU transfer Arik Gilbert — but both players are out for this game. Ouch. The defense has elite talent — and they think they can simply reload once again despite losing six players to the NFL. But while the total defense of allowing 321.0 total YPG ranked 12th in the FBS, the more sophisticated Expected Points Allowed per Play metric drops them to 27th in the nation. A hidden flaw that may speak to defensive coordinator Dan Lanning’s schemes relates to the Red Zone performance. Georgia allowed 14 touchdowns and seven field goals in the 22 Red Zone trips their opponents made — that 95.5% scoring rate was 124th in the nation. The Bulldogs lost their top four cornerbacks, with two going to the NFL and one transferring. In theory, there is great freshman talent — and Smart is aggressive in the transfer market by bringing in former Clemson cornerback Darion Kendrick and West Virginia nickel back Tykee Smith. Are any of these players lockdown corners? The Bulldogs would have been better served with this showdown occurring later in the season. I have more faith in Clemson’s reload — six straight appearances in the playoffs will do that (with two National Championships). Sophomore quarterback D.J. Uiagalelelei is proven with two starts last season against Boston College and Notre Dame where he completed 78 of 117 passes for 914 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. He threw for 438 yards on the road at night in South Bend against a good Fighting Irish defense. And both those games were tight (including a double-overtime loss to the Irish) — so he has experience playing under pressure in tight games. Clemson missed wide receiver Justyn Ross who missed last season with an injury — but he appears ready to return to the field tonight to challenge the Bulldogs’ secondary. He is a likely future first-round pick in the NFL draft. The Tigers defense has something to prove after getting burned for 639 yards by the Buckeyes — but led by perhaps the best defensive front in the nation, this may be their most talented defense since their 2018 National Championship team.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field when the Total is in the 49.5 to 56 range. Now they play at a familiar field for Clemson where they have won the ACC Championship Game the last four seasons. The Tigers have covered the point spread in all 6 games under Dabo Swinney on a neutral field with the Total in that 49.5 to 56 range. And Clemson has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 postseason games consisting of conference championship games, playoff games, and bowl games — and while this contest does not fit that template, it speaks to how Swinney gets his team prepared for big games. 20* CFB Georgia-Clemson ABC-TV Special with the Clemson Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (165) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (166). THE SITUATION: Penn State (0-0) returns 16 starters from the team that finished 4-5 last season. Wisconsin (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that finished 4-3 after a 42-28 win against Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State started 0-5 last season in a snake-bitten start of bad luck involving injuries, turnovers, and COVID complications. When their star linebacker Micah Parsons opted-out of the season, the team was left without their best player. Indiana upset them at home in overtime in the opening game of the season as a 6-point dog despite being outgained by +277 net yards. Penn State had Ohio State next who they were competitive against in a 38-25 loss as a 10-point dog. The season was lost after two games — and they were flat in a 35-19 upset loss to Maryland where they were laying 27 points. They then got upset at Nebraska by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite despite outgaining the Cornhuskers by 203 yards. Wounded with an 0-4 record, they then hosted Iowa where they lost by a 41-21 score. But give James Franklin credit for rallying this team after this disastrous 0-5 start. They upset Michigan on the road in a battle of bruised blue bloods which began their four-game winning streak to end the season. There are definitely problems — and the lack of spring practice hampered Franklin’s hiring of Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca. A lack of explosiveness on offense was one of the reasons that Franklin did not retain Ciarocca (now the head coach of West Virginia). Franklin tapped Texas offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich as his new OC. Turnovers played a big role as the Nittany Lions lost eight of their ten fumbles on offense en route to 17 turnovers. Junior quarterback Sean Clifford probably tried to do too much early as well — but after throwing eight interceptions in his first five games, he had only one interception in his last four games with five touchdown passes. The Penn State defense also held their last five opponents to just 17.3 PPG. Overall, the Nittany Lions may have allowed 27.7 PPG (with turnovers hurting the cause) — but they ranked 17th in the nation by giving up just 328.8 total YPG. They have one of the most underrated defensive coordinators in the business in Brent Pry. Nine starters return on offense including a third-year starter in Clifford. This is a team that outgained their opponents by +102 net YPG. Penn State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in September. Wisconsin was also hit hard by COVID — so perhaps that explains why they scored in single-digits in three straight games midway through the year. But don’t read too much into their 42-28 closing win against Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl since they got outgained by a 577 to 266 yardage margin. Sophomore quarterback Graham Mertz returned from his positive COVID test (and not getting to play Illinois again) by completing only 56.9% of his passes with four touchdown passes and five interceptions in his last six games. Perhaps it was just a nagging shoulder injury for the highly touted phenom? The running backs averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry amidst speculation that the typical stout Badgers’ offensive line has taken a step back in talent. Wisconsin started fast amidst a favorable schedule in 2019 — but they gave up 26 PPG in their final eight games before they could grab on COVID excuses last year. The data says they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against Big Ten opponents — and Penn State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against conference opponents. While both these teams have much to prove in this game. the Nittany Lions still recruit better than the Badgers. Expect a close game where getting the points offers much value. 20* CFB Penn State-Wisconsin Fox-TV Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (165) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (166). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (0-0) returns eight starters from the team that finished 7-2 last season with a 35-19 win over Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan State (0-0) has 16 starters back from their team that finished 2-5.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, bettors appear to be undervaluing the program that head coach Pat Fitzgerald has built in Evanston. In his sixteenth year with the program, Fitzgerald led a Wildcats team to finish in the top 25 for the fourth time since 2015 last year after playing for the Big Ten Championship where they lost to Ohio State by a 22-10 score. Now this program is laying only a field goal to a rebuilding Michigan State team? Fitzgerald can make the argument that he has assembled a coaching staff that gets the most out of their talent in the conference (and the nation?). And this new era of the transfer portal helps a program like Northwestern that cannot hang with the blue bloods in attracting blue-chippers — but now becomes attractive for the talent who needs the spotlight with a starting assignment with a coaching staff that just sent saw two players drafted in the first round in the NFL draft. The Wildcats’ defense has always been fundamentally sound under Fitzgerald — and they were 5th in the nation last year by allowing only 15.9 PPG. This year’s defense is as athletic as any of the units in the Fitzgerald tenure — and the defensive line may be the best yet in his sixteen years. They bring back defensive end Samdup Miller who opted out last year. Safety Brandon Joseph is an All-American — and they have a breakout star in cornerback Cameron Mitchell. A Northwestern program may have been in a better position to navigate COVID-ball last year — but a full offseason can only help a program that thrives when they can coach up their players. Fitzgerald brought in former South Carolina Ryan Hilinski to compete for the starting QB job. The fact that fifth-year senior Hunter Johnson has been named the starting QB suggests to me that the veteran has earned the spot. Johnson is a former five-star recruit that transferred to the program from Clemson — and while he has yet to achieve his vast potential, he has now been under Fitzgerald’s mentorship for three years (including a pandemic). This is a team that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they are a dominant 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games in conference play under Fitzgerald. I am optimistic about what Michigan State can do under second-year head coach Mel Tucker. I like the direction — but I think the betting market is mistaking long-term optimism with short-term rationality. Sparty has endured a decline in talent for years under the bloat of Mike Dantonio for years — especially on the offensive line. The recruiting war arms race in the Big Ten East with Michigan and Penn State investing furiously to try to catch up to Ohio State left Sparty far behind while Dantonio preached an outdated model while fueling all his attentions on his in-state rival. The paradigm where Michigan State played Alabama in the BCS college football playoff in 2016 has long since been transformed. It will take longer than a year for Tucker to rebuild this program. He is trying to ride transfer roulette wheel for this year — and he may have improved the program he inherited. More than 20 players left the program in the offseason but he brought in more than 20. Whoo-hoo! I mean, guys aren’t leaving starting jobs at elite programs. The Michigan State defense has declined — they allowed 35.1 PPG last year (100th FBS and the worst mark in program history) and lost the best player on all three levels. I think second-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton is great who will benefit from a full year of teaching — but he can only do so much. The talent on offense may not yet fit the scheme of second year offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who brought 21st century principles with him when he came over with Tucker from Colorado. The rushing attack has ranked 122nd, 113th, and 114th in the nation in the last three seasons. Tucker brought in Temple QB Anthony Russo as a graduate transfer — but he agrees with all of us in wondering if that was an upgrade over sophomore Payton Thorne who made one start last year. Tucker has yet to name a starter as of my last deep dive — but it doesn’t matter, let him start the turnover machine from Temple. Or not. There is simply a talent deficit still between these two teams. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in Big Ten play.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake is that Northwestern will be motivated to avenge a 29-20 upset loss in East Lansing against Sparty as a 13.5-point favorite. The Wildcats fell behind by a 17-0 score before scoring 20 unanswered points — but turnovers in the fourth quarter led to their 9-point loss. The grind of the Big Ten — where emotions at home can play a big role. Northwestern has that emotional edge this time around — something that Fitzgerald has been pounding into his team since August practices started. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). THE SITUATION: Boise State (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that finished 5-2 after a 34-20 loss to San Jose State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Central Florida (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that ended the season with a 6-4 record after a 49-23 loss to BYU in the Boca Raton Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State is under new management after Bryan Harsin took the head coaching job at Boise State. The Broncos hired a former player and defensive coordinator in Andy Avalos to rework their defense that allowed 27.1 PPG last season. Those were the most points that Boise State surrendered since 1998. Avalos was previously the defensive coordinator at Oregon. He should improve a defense that allowed at least 30 points in four of their seven games last year. It was a lost season for the Broncos that started on the wrong foot when COVID led to them canceling their entire spring practice schedule. The team was hit hard by COVID and injuries during the regular season with both their highly-touted quarterbacks, Hank Bachmeier and Jack Sears, missing time. Sears, a former USC transfer, only played one game. Bachmeier started four games last season including the end of the season despite not being 100%. He has been tabbed the starter for this game. He displayed a big upside in his freshman season as one of the biggest recruits in the history of the program by averaging 8.6 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. He has two returning starters at wide receiver in seniors Khalil Shakir and C.T. Thomas who have combined for 248 receptions and 24 touchdown catches in their career. The Boise State offense has a new offensive coordinator in Tim Plough who brings his Air Raid attack to Boise from UC-Davis. In his time as the Aggies' offensive coordinator, they averaged just 23 seconds between plays — so except a very fast pace. The Broncos should carve up a suspect Knights pass defense that was 110th in the nation last year by allowing 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Central Florida’s best defensive back last season was free safety Richie Grant who was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. The Knights will miss the three-time All-Conference player. Boise State opted out from playing in a bowl game — so this nationally televised game is important for them to re-establish themselves on the national stage. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 range. Central Florida also has a new coach in Gus Malzahn — the guy that Boise State’s previous coach is replacing at Auburn. He replaces Josh Heupel who took the Tennessee head coaching job. While the Knights bring back 17 starters, they lost talent on both sides of the ball to the NFL — and this is not a program that simply reloads. UCF lost their top two running backs in Greg McRae and Otis Anderson and their leading receiver in Marlon Williams who had five 100-yards receiving games last year. Expectations are high for the Knights with junior Dillon Gabriel under center — but he is adjusted to the new Malzahn system on offense. It is the Knights’ defense that will likely be their downfall in this game. They allowed their opponents to average +86 YPG above their season average last year — 123rd in the nation. They allowed at least 30 points six times. UCF benefited from a +12 net turnover margin last year that made up for their defense that allowed 491.8 total YPG (123rd in the FBS). The Knights cannot rely on having the fifth-best net turnover margin once again this season. This shapes up to be a shootout — but that usually does not bode well for this football team. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the Total at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games when an underdog getting up to 7 points. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (146) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (145). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) returns 20 starters from a team that finished 3-4 last season. Ohio State (0-0) has 11 starters back from their group that lost to Alabama in the National Championship Game by a 52-24 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations have been raised for this program under head coach P.J. Fleck after their 11-2 campaign in 2019 that concluded a victory against Auburn in the Outback Bowl. The team was likely going to take a step back last year given the loss of five of their top six tacklers on defense and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca to Penn State. But this program was given no favors when the pandemic hit. The team kept fighting and ended the season playing good football — they took Wisconsin to overtime in their last game before losing by a 20-17 score. Now with a full offseason again and more time to learn second-year offensive coordinator Mike Sanford’s schemes, Minnesota should be very confident tonight as they begin the fifth season under Fleck. His teams at Minnesota and Western Michigan have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in September. He has a senior quarterback in Tanner Morgan who is a four-year starter. They have the reigning Big Ten Running Back of the Year in Mohamad Ibrahim. They have three returning starters at wide receiver in a unit blessed with speed — and senior Chris Autman-Bell is a game-time decision from the latest reports after he suffered a leg injury in camp last month. The Gophers have four starters back on an offensive line that is big, deep, and experienced — and they get right tackle Daniel Faalele and his 6’9, 400-lb frame after he opted out last season. The defense played better in the second half of the season — they held their last five opponents to just 23.4 PPG. Ten starters return — and they brought in one of the most impactful grad transfers in defensive tackle Nyles Pinckney who was the captain of the Clemson defense. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Ohio State usually does not schedule as strong as an opponent as this in their opening game. They especially do not schedule road games in conference play as their opening game. While the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, they have ten new starters including redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud. Remember, Ohio State did not play in front of hostile crowds against Big Ten foes last year given conference restrictions on attendance. They lost ten players who were drafted into the NFL. With a showdown with Oregon next week, the Buckeyes just need to survive this game. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The weather influenced my decision to sign off on this play today — there is a 50% chance for rain in Minneapolis tonight at Huntington Bank Stadium. Rain creates chaos — and I don’t like road favorites amidst chaos playing at night in a hostile environment. I especially do not like chaos with a freshman quarterback making his first career start under expectations that he is supposed to lead his team to a national championship. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Minneapolis to play the Golden Gophers. 10* CFB Ohio State-Minnesota Fox-TV Special with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (146) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (301) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (302). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) returns 18 starters from the team that finished 5-4 last year after a 28-14 win against Houston in the New Mexico Bowl. UCLA (0-0) comes off a 3-4 campaign in the third year under head coach Chip Kelly.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: There seems to be more excitement about what the Bruins may finally accomplish in the fourth year under Kelly nationally than there is in Los Angeles where the Rose Bowl will not offer a strong home-field edge. The biggest problem with this UCLA team starts with Kelly’s stubbornness to continue to employ his buddy Jerry Azzinaro as his defensive coordinator. Entering last season, Azzinaro had overseen six straight college defenses that ranked 113th, 102nd, 100th, 89th, 105th, and 110th in total defense. Some might say that the Azzinaro-way finally started to demonstrate itself last year when the Bruins “improved to 69th in the nation by holding their opponents to 409.9 total YPG. Unfortunately, that number may have more to do with playing opponents slow to get up to speed on offense in a pandemic. UCLA allows 482 YPG in their final three games against Arizona State, USC, and Stanford — not exactly an endorsement of coaching improvements out of one’s players. The UCLA defense also lost their best player in defensive end Osa Odighizuwa who got drafted by Dallas. Kelly’s recruiting classes have catered amidst losing seasons — and he has lost talent from the loosened transfer rules. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the returning starter at quarterback — but he has failed to meet the expectations of operating the Chip Kelly dual-threat offense. Pro Football Focus graded four of his five starts last year below 57.0 (which is bad). Injuries have held him back — but when he has been the starter in his career, the Bruins’ pass attack ranks second-to-last in the Pac-12 on efficiency. Kelly’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the opening two weeks of the season. UCLA has not covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 non-conference games with Kelly as their head coach. And in Kelly’s last 22 home games as a head coach with his team playing at home with the Total set at 63 or higher, his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those games. Hawai’i deployed a new up-tempo attack against Houston in their bowl game to success that will carry over into this season. Say what you want about head coach Todd Graham after his tenure at Arizona State — but the dude can coach up football teams as he owns a 100-65 overall record with 11 bowl appearances in his 12 seasons coaching at Rice, Tulsa, and Pittsburgh before the Sun Devils and Rainbow Warriors. Graham has tightened the ship by making things a family affair with him placing his eldest son, Bo, as offensive coordinator while he takes over the defensive coordinating duties. Graham brought in six Division-I transfers to a defense that returns 11 starters. The defense will be better. The offense brings back fourth-year QB Chevan Cordeiro who threw for over 2000 yards and ran for more than 480 yards in nine games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games in the first two weeks of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in August. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in non-conference play — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Graham’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. UCLA has a big game with LSU on deck, which may compel Kelly to call off the dogs if they are winning easily — so a back door cover is alive in this one. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (301) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that settled for a 3-5 record in a COVID-shortened season last year. Illinois (0-0) begins the Bret Bielema head coaching era after Lovie Smith was sacked before the final game of the 2020 season where they finished 2-6.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS MINUS THE POINTS: If fourth-year head coach Scott Frost was not on the hot seat after posting a 12-20 record in his first three seasons at his alma mater in Lincoln, the NCAA violations issued against the football program under his watch certainly raised the stakes this season for Frost with another album as athletic director in Trev Alberts who did not hire him. After four straight losing seasons, Frost must deliver — and the schedule gets tougher in the second half of the season with dates Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This is a must-win situation for the Cornhuskers. Frost has problems — players are transferring and his recruitment has waned. But 17 starters return from a group that outgained their opponents last season by +5 net Yards-Per-Game. Nebraska was just 1-4 in close games decided by one possession. Turning the ball over in 18.95% of their possessions on offense was a killer. Yet there is stability on offense under senior quarterback Adrian Martinez. While the dual-threat QB is not likely to meet the expectations surrounding his early hype, he is a veteran who completed 71.5% of his passes last season while running for another 521 yards with his 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. With a wide receiving corps that is the most talented in the Frost era, this should be a better offensive team. With USC transfer Markese Stepp and a handful of talented freshmen at running back, someone should step up. The defense has 90% of their production return led by five “super seniors” playing in their sixth season. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Scott Frost’s teams at Nebraska and Central Florida have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Lovie Smith did not leave the cupboard bare for Bielema at Illinois — in fact, I think Smith was moving this program in the right direction before COVID put a monkey wrench in many coaches' plans last season (especially the ones who are effective teachers who rely on practices). In comes Bielema who bolted from his success at Wisconsin for the money in the SEC where he failed to elevate the Arkansas program. He returns to Big Ten country where he is moving from a spread offense to probably more of a power running game. The defense moves from a 4-3 to a 3-4 — and these system changes on both sides of the ball can see transition problems in these early games. As it is, Bielema’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in the opening two weeks of the season. His quarterback is sixth-year senior Brandon Peters who transferred from Michigan a few years ago when the writing was on the wall that he would not get the starting job after a bad bowl game sealed his fate. The inconsistent QB has averaged only 144.6 passing YPG with the Illini. He led an offense last year that ranked 119th in the FBS in Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt — and the returning wide receiving corps lacks a clear number one option. The Illini defense has finished 12th or worse in total yardage in four of the last five seasons under a former NFL head coach whose defensive acumen propelled the Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl with a defense that carried Rex Grossman at QB. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, previously the coordinator of the Missouri defense the last six seasons, is not an upgrade. Bielema is in a rebuild — so he has time. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home where they do not retain a great home edge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 37 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The Illini have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in August.

FINAL TAKE: If the stakes were not high enough for Nebraska, they will have revenge on their mind after getting upset by Illinois last year at home by a 41-23 score as a 16-point underdog on November 21st. Good bulletin board material for Frost in a game Bielema had no connection with. 25* CFB Television Game of the Month is with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City played their best game of the 2020-21 season against the Bills in their two-touchdown victory. That is the Chiefs’ team I expected to show-up in the second half in our 25* play on KC against Cleveland. And we had Patrick Mahomes and company against Buffalo last week — so I do not recommend betting against the reigning champs lightly. I was tickled when hearing the pundits talk about the Chiefs inability to cover point spreads as of late — they went into the AFC Championship Game having only covered the spread once in their previous nine games. As if just winning 15 of 17 games was not impressive enough. Yet it took 45 minutes of great football from the Chiefs (after falling behind 9-0) for the conventional wisdom to dramatically shift to just how invincible they are. The truth is somewhere in the middle. But it remains hard to repeat as a Super Bowl champion — and Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread more than once in their last three games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home — which is usually when the public starts bandwagoning Mahomes again. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsider consider the Buccaneers the best team in the NFL (and before home field advantage). I do take their numbers with a few grains of salt — a bettor will go bankrupt fast relying exclusively on them. But, their analytics provide evidence that the Chiefs are perhaps overvalued in this game. And that is before the injury situation — which I consider severe. I have worried all postseason about KC being without right tackle Mitchell Schwartz who is on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Head coach Andy Reid said that he did not expect Schwartz to be available for the Super Bowl. The Achilles’ injury to Eric Fisher late in the Bills’ game leaves the Chiefs without their starting tackles — and the Buccaneers’ pass rush is ferocious now that have Vita Vea and Shaq Barrett back from injury to join Ndamukong Suh clogging the middle and Jason Pierre-Paul rushing from the outside. I do begin to worry about Mahomes’ left toe a bit when thinking about him missing both tackles — he was better on Sunday but not 100%. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is 7-0 with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG while averaging 34.3 PPG and 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. Home field is also significant — not for the cheering crowd, which doesn’t hurt. The Buccaneers getting to play in a Super Bowl in their comfortable and familiar facilities while sleeping in their own beds is a big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they will be a bit better on February 7th than they were when they last played over two months ago. 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City scored 21 points in the second quarter en route to their easy victory over the Bills while demonstrating just how good their offense is when full-engaged. The Chiefs scored 32.1 PPG in their first ten games of the season before going on cruise control a bit which coincided with their 27-24 victory at Tampa Bay on November 29th in Week 12. Kansas City also raced out to a 19-3 halftime lead in their previous game against Cleveland. A fast start for Patrick Mahomes should help ensure this becomes a high-scoring game — they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Since the Chiefs “flipped the switch” in the postseason again, they have averaged 7.06 and 6.97 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in two straight games. Kansas City has also scored 31.6 PPG in their eight games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Chiefs’ defense allowed 363 yards to the Bills — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown (who should be healthy again for the Super Bowl) midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is scoring 34.3 PPG while averaging 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in six straight games — win or lose, I suspect they will hit the 30-point threshold for a seventh straight game. And I expect Mahomes to at least be able to keep up since KC will keep their foot on the gas pedal all game — ensuring our Over. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. The Buccaneers defense allowed the Packers to gain 381 yards — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards. Tampa Bay has seen at least 50 points in six straight games — and not only have they played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing four straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Buccaneers have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. Giving head coach Bruce Arian to dial-up plays and a strategy to react to their loss just over two months ago should ensure the Bucs’ score more points this time around — and that should push this rematch above the number. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite. Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. He will not be 100% with the pain and discomfort that he will experience — yet I still expect Kansas City to cover point spread expectations. I do think the reigning Super Bowl champions were able to flip a switch once the playoffs started last week. They raced out to a 19-3 lead at halftime (which could have been an even bigger lead if not for missed kicks). This is a good sign for them this week — the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after owning a halftime lead by at least two touchdowns. KC has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Chiefs gained 438 yards overall even with Mahomes leaving the game in the third quarter — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Many observers fading Kansas City in this game cite that they have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games. But the Chiefs have coved the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. So much criticism for a team that won fifteen of their seventeen games this season. And they will be playing in Arrowhead Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when laying no more than 7 points. Buffalo has won eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning at least four in a row. And after playing their last three games at home, the Bills go back on the road for the first time since December 28th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Kansas City to play the Chiefs.

FINAL TAKE: Josh Allen and the Bills have been a great story in the second half of this season — but they face a significant disadvantage in playoff experience. This is all new territory for Allen, head coach Sean McDermott, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (as an OC), and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Chiefs’ Andy Reid has been the head coach in two Super Bowls and eight championship games between his time with Philadelphia and Kansas City. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has won two Super Bowls running the defense for the Chiefs last year and previously with the New York Giants. And then there is the battle between Allen and Mahomes. Kansas City should win this game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. While Mahomes has said it feels better, this is an injury that needs a few weeks to heal — and numbing drugs can only do so much. Mahomes will not be at 100% — and his mobility will be limited. As it is, Kansas City has transformed into more of a ball-control offense in the second half of the season. In Mahomes’ last five starts (which excludes Week 17) since the Chiefs’ 35-31 win against Las Vegas, they are scoring only 25.5 PPG while not scoring more than 33 points during that stretch. Head coach Andy Reid is letting the clock burn when Mahomes is on the field in what appears to me to be an attempt to keep his defense fresh. This has helped the defense put up better numbers in the second half of the season. Kansas City has held these last six opponents (excluding the Chargers in Week 17 since Mahomes did not play) to 345.7 Yards-Per-Game with five of those opponents not gaining more than 367 yards. While not elite numbers, this approach is leading to lower-scoring games. Cleveland managed only 308 total yards last week against the Chiefs’ defense. The Bills score 30.3 PPG — but Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 29 PPG. And while the Chiefs gained 438 yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Tellingly, Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, there is the issue of the sputtering KC offense in the Red Zone. Since Week 12, the Chiefs possess just the 26th most effective Red Zone offense in scoring touchdowns. This is not a good sign when facing this Bills’ defense that has had the best Red Zone defense since Week 12. These two teams played on October 19th with Kansas City winning by a 26-17 score. Despite the final result, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is likely to consider the defensive game plan a success. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier did not blitz at all in that game. The Bills’ begged Mahomes to hand off the football — and he did 46 times which resulted in 245 rushing yards. Yet KC scored a field goal below their season average. Given their improved Red Zone defense since that game, McDermott is likely to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off again while giving him the short passing game but not letting him burn the defense from the mismatches that ensue from using linebackers as pass rushers. Other defenses began copying this defensive approach which has also played a role in Kansas City’s declining offensive numbers in the second half of the season. This Buffalo defense will healthier in this rematch with linebacker Matt Milano playing in this game amongst others. Getting back to full strength helped the Bills’ defense rank sixth in the NFL since Week Seven using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Buffalo held the Ravens last week to just 340 yards. Yet Buffalo managed only 220 yards on their own while benefiting from their 100-yard interception return for a touchdown — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Bills’ first 20 plays from scrimmage were pass plays for Josh Allen — and that 21st play was a broken pass play that Allen then rushed for positive yardage. Buffalo runs the ball only 30% of the time in their offensive plays in the first half. I expect this playscript to change in this game against the suspect Chiefs’ run defense that ranks as the sixth-worst in the NFL using DVOA. The Bills’ attention to run the ball a bit more will also help them burn time off the clock to limit the offensive possessions Mahomes will enjoy. The Under is 9-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 30 of their last 42 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and Kansas City has played 4 of the last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tom Brady is operating the Tampa Bay offense at its most optimal level as he has all season. The Buccaneers went into last week averaging 526.7 Yards-Per-Game in their previous three contests — and his offense is scoring 35.0 PPG over their last three games after scoring 30 last week against the stout Saints’ defense. That was the fifth game in a row that Tampa Bay scored at least 30 points. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are scoring 32.5 PPG while averaging 417.1 total YPG. Tampa Bay has played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total as an underdog of 7 points or less. Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. The lone exception was when they only scored 24 points in their 8-point win against Carolina on that Saturday game on December 19th — and they have then won their next three games by at least two touchdowns. The Packers have then played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning their last three games by at least 14 points. Green Bay is scoring 35.7 PPG in these most recent three games while averaging 416.0 total YPG. They stay at home where they are scoring 31.7 PPG at Lambeau Field while averaging 415.4 YPG. The Packers have played 4 straight home games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total in the playoffs. Green Bay has also played 6 straight playoff games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on October 18th with Tampa Bay winning at home by a 38-10 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Both Brady and Rodgers only passed for 166 and 160 yards in that game — but both quarterbacks have overseen adjustments since that game which should help them be more effective in this rematch. The Packers have played 8 straight games Over the Total in January — and Tampa Bay has played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total against fellow NFC rivals. Look for both teams to score at least 25 points in this shootout. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Green Bay Fox-TV O/U Special with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311) with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312).. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are playing the best football of their season right now which is just how head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady planned. However, this is a very challenging situation for them to travel up to Lambeau Field under their recent circumstances. They overcame a huge obstacle in upsetting the Saints on the road after they had lost the previous two times against this season by a combined 72-26 score. They also benefited from a +4 net turnover margin on Sunday. They are not likely to be so fortunate against a Packers team that has a +6 net turnover margin this season and that has only turned the ball over 12 times all year. Green Bay has committed only two turnovers in their last seven games — and Aaron Rodgers has just five interceptions all season. Part of head coach Matt LaFleur’s system is to ask Rodgers to do less in the passing game. It is working. And Tampa Bay is now playing their third straight game away from home which adds to the stress and complications of their situation. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games this season after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Buccaneers are also surviving high-scoring games with at least 50 combined points scored in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. We had Tampa Bay last week — but did so understanding that the Bucs had a 1-5 record against teams that made the playoffs (during the regular season). Every other team playing in the divisional round had registered at least four victories against teams that made the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s six-game winning streak came against Atlanta (twice), Detroit, Minnesota, and then Washington and New Orleans in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 7 points. Green Bay will be very comfortable in this situation being led by Rodgers. They dominated the Rams by a 484 to 244 margin in yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. And in their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers will retain a significant home-field edge — not only in not traveling this week and playing in front of a loud crowd (as were the reports last week) even if not at full capacity at Lambeau Field last week. Yet the biggest edge for Green Bay in this game is that they will be very comfortable in playing in the cold weather. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in January — and Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-5) advanced from the NFC Wild Card playoffs last Saturday night with their 31-23 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans (13-4) has won three straight games after their 21-9 victory against Chicago last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay is playing their best football of the season with five straight victories. They generated 507 yards against a good Washington defense with one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. The Buccaneers have then covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 69 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Buccaneer’s offense hit rock bottom on November 8th in their most recent encounter with the Saints in a 38-3 loss at home as a 3-point underdog. Tampa Bay was simply a mess on offense in that game with Tom Brady making ill-advised deep passes on short third-down situations. The Buccaneers ran the ball a mere five times — making a mockery of the analytics grifters who write articles every couple of years calling for offenses to pass on every down (as if there is not an adequate sample size from the Big 12 conference to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy). That game was also the debut of Antonio Brown with the team with the Bucs seeming to think he was just a “plug-and-play” solution. If there was a silver lining from that humiliation, it was that it forced Brady to get on the same-page Bruce “no risk it, no biscuit” Arians on the offensive philosophy of this team. Slowly, this offense is looking more like the ones he operated in New England — albeit with more deep throws still (but he has the talent to do it with his receiving corps). I expect this game plan to rely plenty on Brady’s assessment regarding how to attack this Saints’ defense he has played twice already — and that has just the 29th ranked Red Zone defense. The Tampa Bay offense enters this game clicking on all cylinders by scoring 40.7 PPG and averaging 527.6 total YPG. Brown has found his niche as one of the weapons at Brady’s disposal. Brady has been more accurate with his deep balls — he is averaging 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt since their bye in Week 13 which is over 2.0 YPA above what he was averaging before the extra time to self-audit the offense. Granted, Brady’s recent success has been against teams with losing records in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington (with Minnesota and the Falcons again since the bye week). How much of Brady’s success is legitimate and how much of it was a product of playing the Lions, et al, defenses? The metrics at Football Outsiders say the improvement is legit with the Buccaneers’ weighted DVOA on offense now ranked second in the NFL. Maybe the Tampa Bay offensive problems is as simple as two grizzled veterans in Brady and Arians needing (and using) the regular season to figure out how to mesh philosophies without the benefit of a normal offseason? The Bucs’ defense gets a shot in the arm with linebacker Devin White returning to action after testing positive for COVID. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set at 49.5. They are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread covers as a double-digit underdog. Brees has not looked 100% since his return from his rib injury — the Football Outsiders’ folks have assessed him a negative DVOA game grade in two of his four starts since his return. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Additionally, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 home games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: While it may not be impossible to defeat a team three times in one season, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from two straight losses to their opponent where they allowed at least 28 points. Tampa Bay has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when averaging a loss at home by at least three touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss at home by at least four touchdowns. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-5) advanced from the NFC Wild Card playoffs last Saturday night with their 31-23 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans (13-4) has won three straight games after their 21-9 victory against Chicago last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneer’s offense hit rock bottom on November 8th in their most recent encounter with the Saints in a 38-3 loss at home as a 3-point underdog. Tampa Bay was simply a mess on offense in that game with Tom Brady making ill-advised deep passes on short third-down situations. The Buccaneers ran the ball a mere five times — making a mockery of the analytics grifters who write articles every couple of years calling for offenses to pass on every down (as if there is not an adequate sample size from the Big 12 conference to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy). That game was also the debut of Antonio Brown with the team with the Bucs seeming to think he was just a “plug-and-play” solution. If there was a silver lining from that humiliation, it was that it forced Brady to get on the same-page Bruce “no risk it, no biscuit” Arians on the offensive philosophy of this team. Slowly, this offense is looking more like the ones he operated in New England — albeit with more deep throws still (but he has the talent to do it with his receiving corps). I expect this game plan to rely plenty on Brady’s assessment regarding how to attack this Saints’ defense he has played twice already — and that has just the 29th ranked Red Zone defense. The Tampa Bay offense enters this game clicking on all cylinders by scoring 40.7 PPG and averaging 527.6 total YPG. Brown has found his niche as one of the weapons at Brady’s disposal. Brady has been more accurate with his deep balls — he is averaging 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt since their bye in Week 13 which is over 2.0 YPA above what he was averaging before the extra time to self-audit the offense. Granted, Brady’s recent success has been against teams with losing records in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington (with Minnesota and the Falcons again since the bye week). How much of Brady’s success is legitimate and how much of it was a product of playing the Lions, et al, defenses? The metrics at Football Outsiders say the improvement is legit with the Buccaneers’ weighted DVOA on offense now ranked second in the NFL. Gaining 507 yards last week against the Football Team was impressive since they have a very good defense — and that effort was encouraging regarding how Brady will handle the pass rush this week since Washington is top-ten in pressure rate. Maybe the Tampa Bay offensive problems is as simple as two grizzled veterans in Brady and Arians needing (and using) the regular season to figure out how to mesh philosophies without the benefit of a normal offseason. The team trends suggest the Bucs will score their share of points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 25 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Buccaneers have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total as an underdog including 6 straight Overs when not getting more than 3 points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in their last three games as a favorite — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight when laying the points. The Saints are going to score their share of points in this game — they average 30.4 PPG at home. Drew Brees is also averaging 35.3 PPG in his last three games while averaging 438.3 YPG and he is getting his weapons like Michael Thomas back for the playoff run. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 7 points. The Saints have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in New Orleans. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog. Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Cleveland generated 390 yards in the win — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But while the Browns raced out to their 28-0 lead in the first quarter benefiting from some Steelers’ turnovers, they ended allowing Pittsburgh to gain 501 yards against them. Cleveland has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last contest. And while they enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin in that game, the Browns have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +3 or better net turnover margin. Cleveland stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Additionally, the Browns have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Kansas City has played 7 straight home games Over the Total after playing their last game at home at Arrowhead Field. And while the Chiefs have not covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Browns are 6-3 away from home where they score 27.9 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing in January. Even with the Total set in the high-50s, expect a higher scoring game that reaches that plateau. 10* NFL Cleveland-Kansas City CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I really liked the situation for the Browns in that playoff game playing with no pressure given all the COVID adversity with the Steelers seeming to dismiss that their AFC North “younger brother” offered any threat with Ben Roethlisberger owning a 13-0 record at home against Cleveland in his career. Well, I “so right” about the Browns that it ruined our bigger play on the Under. With hindsight being 20/20, upgrading the Under play above the Cleveland side play was the sound fundamental play given the evidence at hand. That opening fumble in the end zone that the Brown recovered and then Roethlisberger throwing four interceptions to help Cleveland go into halftime with a 35-10 lead changed the entire dynamic of that game (while forcing the Steelers to abandon the run for their 2-minute offense). In winning that playoff game under those circumstances — without their head coach Kevin Stefanski — against their most-hated division rival was not only the Browns winning their Super Bowl but may very well be the biggest victory in the Super Bowl era. I like Baker Mayfield and this team when they can play with a chip on their shoulder about being disrespected. I hate Baker Mayfield and this team when they start feeling themselves after experiencing positive results. It will be an emotional two weeks by kickoff — and that is difficult to sustain for even the most battle-tested veteran group. The team hopes Stefanski returns to the building on Thursday. I expect Cleveland to be flat in this game despite playing with the proverbial “house money”. Let’s look at the team trends regarding how this team responds to situations like this. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win on the road by at least 10 points against an AFC North rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while Cleveland needed to defeat Pittsburgh in Week 17 to make the playoffs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two against divisional opponents. And remember how unimpressive the Browns were in eking out that 24-22 win against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers’ second string? This is a team with Bluto for Animal House’s 0.0 when it comes to their net PPG differential — and they are outgained in yardage on the season. On the road, Cleveland was outscored and outgained. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and this is an uber-difficult fourth game in their last five away from home. Winning the turnover battle in the last two weeks certainly helps — but the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover edge in their last two games. Here comes rested Kansas City under head coach Andy Reid who has covered the point spread in 19 of his 29 games when getting the benefit of a bye week. Worried about the Chiefs only covering the point spread once in their last eight games? KC has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Worried about the Browns running the ball against a run defense that experts at Football Outsiders (who do not incorporate Time of Possession into their metrics) rank as the 31st in the NFL in DVOA? Well, this was an issue last year as well in their Super Bowl championship run. Cleveland won’t be running the ball when down 10 points. The bigger question is how will the Browns’ pass defense that allows 262.5 passing YPG which is 25th in the league (and DVOA! ranks this unit 25th against the pass, as well) stop Patrick Mahomes? Not only has their secondary been banged up all year, but the Browns also lost their second-best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon to a season-ending injury. The Cleveland defense is not good at this point of the season. Big Ben passed for 501 yards against them on Sunday — and Rudolph passed for 309 yards while leading an offense that gained 394 yards. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 450 YPG. Cleveland is also 9-26-2 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. And all this assumes the best case scenario with Cleveland getting everyone back who were in quarantine last week because of COVID. To quote Larry David, this situation is “pretty, pretty, pretty good” (with the caveat that there are never anything “sure things” — but this is as good as it gets. Please don’t bet the house). 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (304) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (303). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (14-3) defeated Indianapolis at home last Saturday in their Wild Card playoff game by a 27-24 score as a 7-point favorite. Baltimore (12-5) has won six games in a row with their 20-13 win at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I hate this situation for the Ravens as they will be playing their third straight games on the road in this one. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games on the road. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in in 35 of their last 55 games after being on the road in their last two contests — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in three of those last four situations. And while they have covered the point spread for bettors in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. It will be cold with flurries in this game — and quarterback Lamar Jackson has said he has never played in snow in his career. Some quarterbacks love the cold and snow — Josh Allen has performed well in these conditions. This remains to be seen for Jackson — and he may lose mobility playing in these conditions if he is not wearing the correct cleats for his game (and this is not a given that he and the trainers will easily figure it out in this initial trial). Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Bills have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 52 games after a close win by a field goal or less — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a win at home by 3 points or less. Buffalo hosts this game where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has become a juggernaut with the maturation of Josh Allen this season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against AFC foes while also covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Home field edge probably makes the difference in this one — not the fans (although Buffalo is allowing limited attendance for this game) but the cold weather and avoiding continued travel like the Ravens are enduring simply puts the Bills is a better position to execute this week. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (304) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (12-5) has won six games in a row with their 20-13 win at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Buffalo (14-3) defeated Indianapolis at home last Saturday in their Wild Card playoff game by a 27-24 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The weather is going to be cold with a decent chance of flurries in this game. To quote Dan Marino: “if it’s snowing’, I’m throwin’!” I do not worry about playing Overs in snowy conditions if the supporting evidence points strongly to the Over — which is the case for this situation. The Over is 11-2-1 in the Bills’ last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win at home. Buffalo generated 395 yards of offense in that game while averaging 7.09 Yards-Per-Play. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. Buffalo has scored at least 26 points in nine straight games while eclipsing 30 points in six of those contests. The Bills have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. But Buffalo surrendered 309 passing yards en route to the Colts’ 472 total yards in that game. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has allowed 50 combined points in their last two games while giving up at least 24 points nine times this season. Last week’s game just made it Over the 50.5 point Total — and the Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Baltimore has played three straight Unders after last week’s game finished below the 53.5 total — but they have played 24 of their last 41 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. The Ravens have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last two games on the road. Baltimore had scored at least 27 points in five straight games before only reaching 20 points last week in what turned out to be a game where both teams wanted to control the clock. And while the Ravens’ defense has only surrendered 18.6 PPG this season, they have given up at least 28 points five times. Buffalo averages 290 passing YPG — and Baltimore has played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. The Ravens score 28.2 PPG on the road — and while they average 194 rushing YPG, the Bills have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams who average at least 170 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 playoff games when they were the underdog. Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is a heavyweight contest — and both these teams will keep fighting to win which should push the final score Over the Total. 25* NFL Saturday Night Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Green Bay Packers (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles may be allowing only 18.6 PPG this season — but they have allowed at least 20 points in six of their last eight games. The Rams’ defensive numbers are helped by them holding New England to just a field goal and Arizona to only a touchdown since December. Los Angeles allows their the nine teams they played on the road to 23.1 PPG — so Green Bay scoring at least in the mid-20s is likely. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has also played 32 of their last 49 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Additionally, the Rams have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall under the leadership of head coach Sean McVay. And in their last 5 games in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, Los Angeles has played all 5 games Over the Total. Green Bay has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning at least six games in a row. The Packers are scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. The Packers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 40 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 straight games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Over the Total when favored. 10* NFL LA Rams-Green Bay Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Green Bay Packers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams may be due for a letdown after pulling off that upset victory against their NFC South rival — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset win on the road against a divisional foe. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games — and while they covered the point spread in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. With John Wolford dealing with the neck injury he suffered against the Seahawks, Jared Goff will be the starting quarterback in this game. Under normal circumstances, I worry about the California product playing in cold weather — he does not have a great history playing in the cold in those rare occasions in his career. Yet asking Goff to control a hardened ball from the cold with screws in his hand may be too much to ask. Highs are expected to be in the 30s for this game. Goff completed just 9 of 19 passes last week for 155 yards. The Rams’ offense relied on their ground game as they rushed for 164 yards — but Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. This is an offense that is scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG in those games. This is old hat for Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a divisional rival. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.1 net PPG. They are holding their guests to just 19.5 PPG along with 308.9 total YPG. They are also scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. Furthermore, the Packers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoffs games at home in the Green Bay cold weather. Aaron Rodgers’ team has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The favorite has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in the last 6 of these games. It is tough to see Goff at less than 100% keeping up with Rodgers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We had the Buckeyes in their revenge opportunity defeat a Tigers team that beat them in last year’s Semifinals by a 29-23 score. I loved Ohio State in that situation as an underdog — but I hate this spot for them now. Head coach Ryan Day and his team just triumphed against their proverbial white whale — but the job is not done. I worry about a big emotional letdown for this team. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. The continued COVID situation for Ohio State adds a very troubling complication for this team. Remember, it was the surprise announcement of a slew of Buckeyes’ players dealing with COVID that contributed to their sluggish effort in the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern. Fields struggled without his top weapons in that game — and he may be slowed in this game with the ribs injury he suffered against Clemson. If he is not 100%, the Buckeyes are in trouble. I was unwilling to make a call on the Total for this game without knowing if there is a position group that will not be available to play in this game — if an offensive position group is out, then that helps the Under; if a defensive position group is out, then it helps the Over. Either way, if Ohio State goes into this game undermanned, it could be devastating. Even if everyone takes the field on Monday, the practice and preparation for this team have been less than ideal. Alabama will be primed and ready for this game. Head coach Nick Saban’s team comes into this contest having not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, the Tide have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 67 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in a dominant 23 of their last 28 games after winning but not covering the point spread in their last two games. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on a neutral field favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the SEC. Alabama has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Big Ten foes. 25* CFB National Championship *A-List* Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide flexed their muscles on defense against the Fighting Irish offense by limiting them to 375 yards and just the two scores. Alabama has not only then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. And while that game flew Under the 65.5 point Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Under. The Crimson Tide has been vulnerable against explosive offenses — Florida generated 462 yards against the Bama defense (including 408 in the air) while Ole Miss put up 268 rushing yards and another 379 passing yards for 647 total yards of offense against a Nick Saban-defense. There is no question that Ryan Day and his offensive coaching staff have dissected the Lane Kiffin game plan he installed for his Rebels’ offense in that game. Alabama has won the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 40 games on the road Over the Total after enjoying a +1 or better turnover battle in two straight contests. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. The Over is 22-9-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last 33 games played on a neutral field — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total on a neutral field as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. Ohio State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset win by at least two touchdowns. And while they generated 639 yards against the Clemson defense — the Over is then 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes have gained at least 491 yards in all seven of their games this season — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Ohio State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Yes, this is a biggggg number in the mid-70s. But Ohio State has scored at least 38 points in six of their seven games with their COVID-impacted Big Ten Championship Game against a Northwestern team slowing the game down being the exception. Notre Dame deployed a similar strategy in “holding” Alabama to their lowest scoring total of the season — but the Tide has scored at least 41 points in their other ten games. If both teams hit those floors, the Over comes in. Both of these teams are going to try to “out-offense” the other in what should be a very competitive contest. Tellingly, Saban’s teams have played 13 of their last 19 January Bowl games Over the Total — and this includes all 4 National Championship Games. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (151) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (11-5) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Steelers at home last Sunday by a 24-22 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (12-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: The COVID situation that has hit this Cleveland organization is far from ideal. The Browns have lost eight players to COVID quarantine including Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio and cornerback Denzel Ward. They will also be without head coach Kevin Stefanski who has tested positive. Special teams coach Mike Priefer will be the acting head coach for this game with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt calling the plays. I think that the coaching situation will be fine in-game. The fact that Stefanski prepared and coached against the Steelers for their must-win contest last week really helps to soften the blow — this Cleveland team will be well prepared for this game. Will all the absences make Pittsburgh just a bit more complacent after almost pulling the upset last week despite benching some starters including Ben Roethlisberger? Back to that point in a moment. I love these circumstances for the Browns as they play this game without any pressure coming from expectations. This team in the Baker Mayfield era tends to be at their worst after success when they start believing their hype. Now the only hype is how outclassed they will be — so Myles Garrett and company can play with a chip on their shoulder. As it is, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Furthermore, the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. This team still has the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield who helped them rush for 192 yards against this defense last week with a 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. The Browns generated 358 yards last week — and Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. This is a team that stumbled down the stretch with four losses in their last five games. Can they just flip the switch? Yes, Big Ben Roethlisberger should be in better health this week after getting last week off to rest with Pittsburgh already locked as the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Outside a second half against the Colts where Roethlisberger ignored his offensive coordinator to lead the offense to 17 points, the Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is struggling to run the football — they are averaging only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This has contributed to the Steelers’ relying on quick passing routes — but with Roethlisberger’s struggles to execute the vertical passing game because of his health, a decline in his skills, or the lack of balance in the Pittsburgh offense — and that has made their offensive attack too predictable. The Steelers failed to score more than 19 points in five straight games before that second half against Indianapolis produced their 28 points in the final score. Pittsburgh has a COVID issue of their own with cornerback Joe Haden out for this game. The Steelers’ outstanding defense continues to get depleted with linebackers Devin Bush and Marcus Dupree already out the year.

FINAL TAKE: Roethlisberger is a perfect 13-0 at home in his career against the Browns — but I think this history of success may only serve to fuel the hints of complacency the players may have for this game. The Steelers have a recent history of underachievement in the playoff as well. They are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in the postseason — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games when favored. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (151) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (11-5) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Steelers at home last Sunday by a 24-22 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (12-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. The Under is also a decisive 39-19-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 60 games after a point spread win. That game with the Browns finished Over the 44.5 point Total — but the Steelers have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Big Ben Roethlisberger should be in better health this week after getting last week off to rest with Pittsburgh already locked as the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Outside a second half against the Colts where Roethlisberger ignored his offensive coordinator to lead the offense to 17 points, the Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is struggling to run the football — they are averaging only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This has contributed to the Steelers’ relying on quick passing routes — but with Roethlisberger’s struggles to execute the vertical passing game because of his health, a decline in his skills, or the lack of balance in the Pittsburgh offense — and that has made their offensive attack too predictable. The Steelers failed to score more than 19 points in five straight games before that second half against Indianapolis produced their 28 points in the final score. Pittsburgh has thrown the ball 44 and 49 times in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing the ball at least 40 times in two straight games. The Steelers return home where they have been very tough to score on — they are holding their visitors to 18.6 PPG along with 295.1 YPG. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games when favored. And in their last 26 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Pittsburgh has played 17 of these games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Browns have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The COVID outbreak will certainly not make things easier for the Cleveland offense. While having offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt calling plays is a fine alternative, head coach Kevin Stefanski was hired for the job for this organization in part because of his acumen at calling plays. Having Stefanski away from the team given COVID protocols is far from ideal. Losing Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio to COVID also hurts this Browns’ offense. Tackle Jack Conklin is also questionable with an unrelated illness. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has averaged only 165.0 passing YPG in his three starts in Pittsburgh with a low 70.6 Passer Rating while getting sacked 11 times — he needs all the help he can get. The Cleveland defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 17.0 PPG along with 338.3 YPG. The Browns' strategy will be to lean heavily on their ground game and out-physical their divisional rival. Cleveland has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by a field goal or less. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (149) and the New Orleans Saints (150). THE SITUATION: Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog. New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Bears will likely try to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep Drew Brees off the field. They are averaging 144.2 rushing YPG since Week 12 which is the sixth-best mark in the NFL. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Chicago has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Saints have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Their win against the Panthers came on the heels of their 52-33 win against the Vikings — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after two straight wins by at least 14 points. While Brees gets most of the attention, the New Orleans’ defense has been quite good this year as they are holding their opponents to just 21.1 PPG along with 310.8 total YPG which ranks fourth and third-best in the league respectively. The Saints have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They also have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. New Orleans does expect to get running back Alvin Kamara back from COVID quarantine for this game. Even without him, they rushed for 156 yards against Carolina — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on November 1st when the Saints won in Chicago by a 26-23 score as a 5-point favorite. The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (149) and the New Orleans Saints (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should build off their momentum off a divisional game where I thought they might be vulnerable against an underdog playing the role of the spoiler. Instead, the Saints outclassed their NFC South rival who, like the Bears, were motivated by same-season revenge. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New Orleans is scoring 38.0 PPG in their last three games while averaging 405.0 Yards-Per-Game over that span. They return home where they are scoring 31.6 PPG. The Saints are also fourth in the league by allowing only 310.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago backed into the playoffs despite the loss to the Packers. They have been outgained by -13.5 net YPG this season. The Bears are not likely to respond with an inspired effort after their loss to Green Bay as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a double-digit loss at home. Mitchell Trubisky completed 33 of 42 passes for 252 yards in the losing effort — but he did throw an interception without a touchdown pass. Improved play from the offensive line has helped Trubisky to put up better numbers in this second stint as the Bears’ starting quarterback this season. But that game against the Packers was the first time this team played a playoff team since November 29th when they lost at home to Green Bay by a 41-26 score. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. In theory, the Bears’ defense is supposed to keep them in games — and their frontline numbers looked decent last week as they only gave up 316 yards to the Packers. But Chicago allowed Green Bay to average 7.34 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Bears stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 8 games in the playoffs, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the total set in that 42.5 to 49 range. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (147) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (148). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-3 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. Tennessee (11-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-38 win at Houston as a 7-point favorite as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: The Titans have been living dangerously in outlasting their opponents in high-scoring games. They generated 492 yards against the Texans while surrendering 457 yards along the way. But Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games including five of their last seven after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. But the Titans have given up 40 points along with 448 yards in their previous game against the Packers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last two contests. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a game where at least 70 points were scored. This team does not fare well relative to point spread expectations with the number high — they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games with the number at 49.5 or higher and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home with the Total at 49.5 or higher. Let’s fade the inferior defense in this game that lacks a pass rush and allows opponents to score 28.3 PPG along with 414.6 total YPG when playing at home — and they have allowed 445.0 YPG in their last three contests. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Over their last five games, they are averaging 37.2 PPG while converting 61.3% of their third-down opportunities. They stay on the road where they are scoring 29.3 PPG. This team is tough to beat when they get their ground game going — and they can rotate three running backs for fresh legs. Baltimore has rushed for at least 150 yards in five straight games after rolling up an incredible 404 yards last week against the Bengals. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight games. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games in the playoffs. Furthermore, the Ravens are 32-13-6 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record under head coach John Harbaugh — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: This is the most important game for this Baltimore franchise all year after getting upset against the Titans in the playoffs last year by a 28-12 score as a 10-point favorite. They blew their opportunity for revenge in November when they were upset at home against Tennessee by a 30-24 score in overtime as a 6-point favorite. The third installment in this trilogy moves to Nashville — and the road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tennessee ABC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (147) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-3 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. Tennessee (11-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-38 win at Houston as a 7-point favorite as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Tennessee has also played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less in their last contest. This Titans’ offense is a juggernaut deploying the running game behind Derrick Henry that also sets up the play-action pass for Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee scores 30.7 PPG — and they are scoring 32.9 PPG at home. They are also scoring 33.7 PPG in their last three games. They generated 492 yards last week against the Titans — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Tennessee has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. But the Titans defense cannot generate a pass rush — they gave up 457 yards to the Texans last week. Tennessee has then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after giving up 30 points in their last contest. Green Bay put up 40 points against them in their previous game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. The Titans give up 28.3 PPG along with 414.6 total YPG when playing at home — and they have allowed 445.0 YPG in their last three contests. They return home where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. After playing three straight Overs, the Ravens have played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. Over their last five games, they are averaging 37.2 PPG while converting 61.3% of their third-down opportunities. They stay on the road where they are scoring 29.3 PPG. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 3 points — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and in their last 5 games when playing at home as a dog, all 5 games finished Over the Total. I think both teams score above 25 points in this game which should push the final score at least into the mid-50s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145) and the Washington Football Team (146). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite. Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After the Buccaneers’ offense hit rock bottom in a divisional game against New Orleans where they only scored a field goal, head coach Bruce Arians and Tom Brady retweaked things to better accommodate the veteran’s skill set. In the seven games since, Tampa Bay has scored at least 24 points in each of those games while averaging 34.6 PPG over that span. The Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Tampa Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Bucs gained 485 yards last week against the Falcons, they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay goes back on the road where they have played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a losing record at home. Washington defense has carried them this season — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Football Team has also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against team with a winning record on the road. Washington will not be playing a team tanking for a better draft pick this week — so the defense the surrendered 14 points in the first half to Jalen Hurts will have to play football for a full 60 minutes tonight. But the flip-side of that coin is that the Football Team will have to be more aggressive in their passing attack. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The veteran is completing 66.7% of his passes which has helped Washington have team completion percentage of 64.7% — and the Buccaneers have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes. Tampa Bay’s defense has surrendered at least 23 points in seven of their last nine games — if they do that again, we should get our Over.

FINAL TAKE: I think Washington’s defense slows down Brady — but the Football Team will be playing from behind and have to rely on Smith’s arm. That dynamic should lead to an Over. Tampa Bay has played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total against NFC foes — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145) and the Washington Football Team (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: I am not a zombie blindly following these numbers — but Tom Brady has been underachieving in night games. Not only have the Buccaneers lost three of their four prime-time games but they have not covered the spread in all 4 games. Furthermore, Brady has not covered the point spread in 7 straight prime-time games going back to his New England days last season. Those numbers are not encouraging — and I do give even more stock into the fact that Tampa Bay lost five of their six games against teams that made the playoffs. Brady and head coach Bruce Arians just want to win — they don’t care about covering a point spread. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. They may due for an emotional letdown as well as they are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in their last two games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Washington is a much better team with Alex Smith at quarterback — they have won five of the six games he has started this season. His numbers are not great — but I think he can move the team down the field if pressed to be more than a game manager not making mistakes. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The Football Team has an outstanding defense that it is second in the NFL by allowing only 304.6 YPG. They have a great pass rush that fits the profile that has given Brady problems in the past in that they can rotate fresh bodies while generating pressure from a four-man front without relying on a blitz that takes away someone in pass coverage. Washington is sixth in the NFL with 47 sacks. In their last three games, the Football Team has only allowed 18.0 PPG along with just 266.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I love this situation for Washington who can play in their familiar building without any pressure. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. 25* NFL ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (145). THE SITUATION: THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-4) has won four games in a row with their 26-23 win at San Francisco as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 18-7 win against Arizona as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against an NFC West foe — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Seahawks are also 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. Russell Wilson seems to be in a slump with the team scoring only 22.0 PPG in their last three games. But he did not suddenly forget how to play football — and the Seahawks were cruising into the playoffs in the second half of the season while intentionally working on improving their running game (which will help their defense). Yet Seattle remains a team that is scoring 29.6 PPG at home — and I have full faith in Wilson to continue to score points if the Rams are scoring in a competitive game. The Seahawks return home where they were 7-1 this season even without fans with an average winning margin of +9.1 net PPG. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when favored by up to 7 points. In Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll, I trust in situations like this. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 7 games in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs, the Seahawks have covered the point spread 6  times. Whoever Los Angeles starts at quarterback, they will be at a significant disadvantage in comparison to Wilson. Jared Goff plays better at home — and he will not be close to 100% with screws in his throwing hand even if he plays. John Wolfed will be playing in his first playoff game if he takes the field. The former Wake Forest QB only completed 22 of his 38 passes last week against the Cardinals defense. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is scoring only 15.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 323.3 YPG in that stretch. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in Seattle. And while they will be looking to avenge their 20-9 loss in Seattle two weeks ago on December 27th, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 opportunities to avenge a loss. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 18-7 win against Arizona as a 1-point favorite. Seattle (12-4) has won four games in a row with their 26-23 win at San Francisco as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win at home over an AFC North foe. This is a bit contrarian play with the number dropping into the 42 range. Los Angeles has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. Granted, the Rams are averaging only 15.7 PPG in their last three games — and head coach Sean McVay has not committed to a starting quarterback with Jared Goff getting screws in his throwing hand and John Wolford having no experience in the playoffs. But the offense is getting healthier around these quarterbacks with left tackle Andrew Whitworth and wide receiver Cooper Krupp expected back on the field for this one and rookie running back Cam Akers established their lead running back. McVay seems to like Wolford — he can make some throws that Goff is not great at executing. The Rams are scoring 25.8 PPG on the road — and their pass attack is predicated on their play-action from their rushing attack being credible which should be the case in this game. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Rams have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as a dog. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win over a divisional rival — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a narrow win by a field goal or less. The Seahawks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Russell Wilson seems to be in a slump with the team scoring only 22.0 PPG in their last three games. But he did not suddenly forget how to play football — and the Seahawks were cruising into the playoffs in the second half of the season while intentionally working on improving their running game (which will help their defense). Yet Seattle remains a team that is scoring 29.6 PPG at home — and I have full faith in Wilson to continue to score points if the Rams are scoring in a competitive game. The Seahawks are dealing with injuries on defense including Jamal Adams dealing with a shoulder. Their win over the 49ers did finish Over the Total — and they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs. These teams did just play to a 20-9 score two weeks ago — and their first meeting this season finished Under the Total with the Rams’ 23-16 win. I think this one goes Over — with both teams scoring at least 20 points. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (141) and the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Indianapolis generated 437 yards of offense against the Jaguars in the win — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Led by the veteran Philip Rivers under center, the Colts are scoring 28.2 PPG — and this offensive prowess travels on the road where Indy is scoring 28.9 PPG while averaging 378.8 YPG. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road. Running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. But the Indianapolis defense has been vulnerable against good passing attacks in their last five games. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 70% of their passes while averaging 311 passing YPG in those last five games. Enter the Buffalo offense that leads the NFL by scoring 38.2 PPG since Week 12. Quarterback Josh Allen is completing 70% of his passes over his last five games with 15 touchdown passes while averaging over 300 YPG and posting a QBR of 117. The Over is 10-2-1 in the Bills’ last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. Buffalo tore up the good Dolphins’ defense for 455 yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills did surrender 454 yards to Miami — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Buffalo allows their visitor to average 376.4 YGP.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 5-2-1 in the Bills’ last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and Indianapolis has played 5 straight games Over the Total against a team with a winning record. Expect a higher-scoring game. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Buffalo CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (141) and the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills have been a freight-train in the second half of the season with all six of their victories being by double-digits. Quarterback Josh Allen has taken his game to the next level — fueled by a rigorous offseason program motivated by his embarrassing performance in the playoffs last year. But I expect things to become more difficult for Buffalo — especially against this Indianapolis team that can deploy the strategy that has given them the biggest problems this season. The Bills are small upfront on defense after losing some important players from last season that were then magnified when defensive tackle Star Lotulelei opted-out this season. Buffalo is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is 26th in the league. In their three losses this season, the Bills were torched on the ground. Tennessee ran the ball 34 times for 139 yards while also using the commitment to their ground game to set up play-action passes in their 42-16 thrashing of Buffalo. Kansas City ran the ball 46 times for 245 yards in their 26-17 victory over the Bills. And Arizona ran the ball 35 times for 257 yards in a 32-30 upset victory that ended with that Hail Mary touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins. Indy can deploy a similar strategy with rookie running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. As it is, Buffalo looks primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five in a row. And while the Bills were underdogs against the Dolphins because they had little at stake last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win at home by at least two touchdowns. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after a double-digit win over an AFC East foe. Additionally, while the Bills are 7-1 at home, they are being outgained by -18.3 net YPG in those games. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win over an AFC South rival — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a double-digit win over a divisional rival. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Indy has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is averaging 396.4 YPG — but Indy has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who average at least 350 YPG. The Bills are banged up at wide receiver Stefan Diggs probable but dealing with an oblique and Cole Beasley questionable with a knee. Allen needs both at peak effectiveness. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (101) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-13 loss to Carolina as a 1-point underdog. Philadelphia (4-10-1) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven games after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point underdog. Washington must win this game to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thoughts on this game earlier this week was that the home dog tonight would be intriguing against this Washington team that must win this game to make the playoffs. But I hate this situation for the Eagles. Philadelphia declared nine players out yesterday — and this list includes running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and tight end Dallas Goedert no offense. The Eagles are simply getting very thin when it comes to injuries their skill position and offensive line units. The losses on defense are just as significant with defensive linemen Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett out along with linebacker Duke Riley. There goes the potent Philly pass rush. What will the morale be for this team at this point? Sure, they want to play the role of the spoiler. But defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz declaring he plans on taking next year off (and leave the team) sends a strange message. So too does the rumors that head coach Doug Pederson will be retained for next season — OK, but does that take him off the hook for this game? The nine players declared out combined with cornerback Jalen Mills being on the COVID list and the 14 other players this season they have lost — this is beginning to look like the junior varsity. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played quite well in his first three starts at quarterback — he led the Philly offense to 477 total yards last week. But expect head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington defensive staff to have a good game plan against Hurts. It is usually about three games worth of tape in the NFL before opposing defenses begin to get a good book on quarterbacks to design more effective schemes. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC East foes. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. They gained 386 yards last week in the loss to the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. It does look like it will be Alex Smith back under center for this game with his taking part in a limited practice on Friday after missing the last two games with a calf injury. This team also looks to get back running back Antonio Gibson and wide receiver Terry McLaurin. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Look for a conservative game plan that limits mistakes and leans heavily on the Football Team’s outstanding defense that ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 310.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: I expect an inspired effort from the Football Team. Sure, they need the win to make the playoffs. But with Smith’s comeback from his gruesome leg injury along with Rivera getting cancer treatments during the season, I just think there is a different resolve for this team. And Rivera dared to dump the apparent dead weight that was Dwayne Haskins — I think the locker room will appreciate no longer coddling the former top draft pick. Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing in Philadelphia. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Football Team (101) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-13 loss to Carolina as a 1-point underdog. Philadelphia (4-10-1) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven games after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point underdog. Washington must win this game to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles declared nine players out yesterday — and this list includes running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and tight end Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia is getting very thin when it comes to injuries their skill position and offensive line units. They have played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing at home after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played quite well in his first three starts at quarterback — he led the Philly offense to 477 total yards last week. But the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Expect head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington defensive staff to have a good game plan against Hurts. It is usually about three games worth of tape in the NFL before opposing defenses begin to get a good book on quarterbacks to design more effective schemes. The Philly defense also gave up 513 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home where they hold their guests to just 23.4 PPG along with 336.3 YPG. The Eagles have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Football Team has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Washington has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Football Team has managed only 15 and 13 points in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Washington did gain 386 yards last week but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. It does look like it will be Alex Smith back under center for this game with his taking part in a limited practice on Friday after missing the last two games with a calf injury. With second-year QB Dwayne Haskins cut earlier this week, it will be Taylor Heinicke as the backup quarterback if Smith gets re-injured. Look for a conservative game plan that limits mistakes and leans heavily on the Football Team’s outstanding defense that ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 310.5 total YPG. Washington is scoring only 17.0 PPG while averaging 310.7 YPG in their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a favorite. They upset the Eagles by a 27-17 score as a 5.5-point favorite on September 3rd - and Philly has played 3 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (113). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-10) snapped a three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 20-13 win at Washington as a 1-point favorite. New Orleans (11-4) ended a two-game losing streak with their 52-33 win against Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie head coach Matt Rhule has said he will play his starters in this game as he tries to instill a winning culture with his program. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. And while that game flew Under the 41.5 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Panthers did surrender 386 yards in that game while being outgained by -106 net yards. But Carolina has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games at home after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. The Panthers are dangerous underdogs who have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when at least 50 combined points were scored. The Saints took a terrible blow to their offense with the news that Alvin Kamara tested positive for COVID. The offense is already without their top wide receiver, Michael Thomas. And Drew Brees has not been the same after returning from his broken ribs injury. He is completing only 56% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 83 since getting back on the field. It is not only Kamara but the entire running back department that is out for this game given tracing protocols — so it will not be Latavious Murray who running the football. Instead, it will be practice squad running backs and Taysom Hill supporting Brees in the backfield. They did outrush the Vikings by +174 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards in their last game. The Saints’ defense has taken a step back as of late as well — they have allowed 55 combined points in their last two games. New Orleans has also allowed their last three opponents to average 171 rushing YPG. In those three games, the Saints allowed 29.7 PPG along with 396.0 total YPG. They allowed 274 passing yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be looking to play spoiler for the Saints’ attempt to earn the top-seed in the NFC playoffs. They are also motivated to avenge a 27-24 loss at New Orleans on October 25th as a 7-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-14) lost their fourteenth straight game this season with their 41-17 loss to Chicago as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-24 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars’ soft-tanking job consists of somehow deciding Mike Glennon is a better choice to be their quarterback than Gardner Minshew. Sure, if the goal is to never score enough points to threaten to win a second game this season. Jacksonville has scored 41 combined points in their last three games while never topping 17 points in those three contests. They are averaging only 300.0 YPG in those games. To make matters worse this week, running back James Robinson and wide receiver D.J. Chark are out with injuries. The Jaguars defense is a mess — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played two straight Overs, they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing an Over — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road after playing two straight Overs. The Jags have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in January. Indianapolis has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Colts’ offense has taken a massive blow with left tackle Anthony Castonzo who went on Injured Reserve this week with a knee injury. The strength of the Indianapolis offense is their line with Castonzo being the key member. Indianapolis still has a strong defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 335.3 YPG. The Colts return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total in the last two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Indianapolis. With Buffalo beating Miami, it looks like the Colts will already be in the playoffs before this game kicks off — and that may come to head coach Frank Reich to bench Philip Rivers and other key starters on offense. Indy will likely run and grind their way to victory. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (123) and the Buffalo Bills (124). THE SITUATION: Miami (10-5) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 26-25 win in Las Vegas last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Buffalo (12-3) has won five games in a row after their 38-9 win at New England on Monday as a 7-point favorite. The Bills have won the AFC East — and they clinch the second seed in the AFC playoffs with a win. The Dolphins make the playoffs as a wildcard with a victory

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The rub with the Buffalo is that they also clinch the second seed if Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland as a double-digit underdog because they are resting starters including Big Ben Roethlisberger. Head coach Sean McDermott has not indicated how long he will play his starters — but he will likely scoreboard watch and best Josh Allen, et al if the Browns take control of that game. As it is, the Bills have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Their defense is playing much better as of late as they have not allowed more than 20 points in four of their last five games — and over their last three games, they have given up just 14.3 PPG along with 226.7 total YPG. They held the Patriots to just 56 passing yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a two-game road trip. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a dog. Miami has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as an underdog. The Dolphins gained 383 yards in that game — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. 182 those yards were from Ryan Fitzpatrick who is out of this game because of COVID. Fitzpatrick averages 232.8 passing YPG with a 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt average — but Tua Tagovailoa is averaging only 161.4 passing YPG with a 6.3 YPA mark when he is the starter. Miami averages only 323.1 YPG when playing on the road. But the Dolphins are built on defense as they hold their opponents to just 18.8 PPG. They did give up 418 yards to the Raiders — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. They look to avenge a 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo on September 20th — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (123) and the Buffalo Bills (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost three straight games after their 27-13 loss at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (6-9) has won three straight games with their 37-17 upset win at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog. The winner of this game puts themselves in position to make the playoffs from winning the NFC East if Washington loses on Sunday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New York has lost three straight games — but they have all been against good teams looking to qualify for the playoffs in Arizona, Cleveland and then the Ravens last week. And while Daniel Jones was at his best this season before his hamstring injury since he was a threat with his legs, he still has been solid in the passing game since his return. He completed 25 of 41 passes for 252 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions last week — and he has not thrown an interception in five straight games. I thought the Giants were perhaps overvalued during their four-game winning streak in the second-half of the season — but they are being too quickly dismissed now. This is a gritty team under first-year head coach Joe Judge that plays solid fundamental football. They should play their best game in a month this afternoon. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They fell behind at halftime by a 20-3 score to the Ravens after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime to Cleveland the week before — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight games. Additionally, New Giants have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Look for the New York offense to center around Wayne Gallman who has rushed for 617 yards in place of the injured Saquon Barkley. He will be going against the worst run defense in the league that allows 161.1 rushing YPG this season. Facing the Cowboys may be just what the doctor ordered after this difficult stretch of games as the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in January. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Dallas is the toast of the town — again — right now with three straight wins including the last two as upset victories over the 49ers and then the Eagles last week. Their victory over the Bengals started the winning streak — but the Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record over this stretch. Don’t be surprised if and when Dallas disappoints yet again after playing themselves back into the playoff picture. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Dallas offense has found a rhythm as of late with Andy Dalton under center as they have scored at least 30 points in three straight games. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They generated 513 yards again the Eagles’ defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Cowboys have up 477 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road in January. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last six situations.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. They did defeat the Giants at home on October 11th by a 37-34 score as a 7.5-point favorite — but New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (8-1) enters the postseason coming off a 34-13 win at Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite on December 19th. North Carolina (8-3) comes off a 62-26 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 3-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M has a chip on their shoulder for this game after not getting what they considered to be the “second” automatic bid into the College Football Playoff semifinals after getting bypassed by Notre Dame and an Ohio State team that “only” played six games (after seeing their non-conference schedule consisting of Bowling Green and Buffalo cut due to COVID). Will the Aggies come into this game with something to prove — or will they be complacent? The history of Jimbo Fisher teams is to take bowl games seriously. Fisher’s teams have won seven of their nine bowl games while covering the point spread in 6 of these 9 bowl games. And Fisher is regime building in College Station with a 25-10 record in his first three seasons there including two bowl wins after they crushed NC State in the Gator Bowl last year by a 55-13 score. This is a prestigious New Year’s Six bowl game in the cushy Saturday night prime-time slot with plenty of eyeballs from recruits to playoff committee members to AP voters that will make their preseason rankings which sets the table to rig the game for Power Five conference teams for playoff considerations — and the rich Texas A&M alumni are always watching with interest. So, yeah, I think Fisher has had his whip out for his team in practice to prepare for this game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they gained 497 yards against the Volunteers, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. Senior Kellen Mond completed 26 of 32 passes for 281 yards in the win — and Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Aggies also have an outstanding defense that ranks 11th in the nation by allowing 316.6 YPG. North Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory on the road by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling off an upset win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Additionally, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win over an ACC opponent. UNC exploded for 778 yards against the Hurricanes while outgaining them by +464 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Head coach Mack Brown is dealing with several opt-outs for this game with three of his top skill players on offense in wide receiver Dyami Brown and running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams and his best defensive player in linebacker Chazz Surratt bypassing this game. Brown has young but untested talent filling their shoes. The Tar Heels rushed for a whopping 554 yards against Miami — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Now they face a stout Aggies run defense that holds opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry — while ranking second in the nation by allowing only 92.2 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (496) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (495) in the Fiesta Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (8-3) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the Big 12 Championship Game with their 27-21 loss to Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog on December 18th. Oregon (4-2) ended their two-game losing streak in the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 31-24 upset win against USC on December 18th as a 3-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State should bounce-back with a strong effort for head coach Matt Campbell. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after winning at least three of their last four games. Quarterback Brock Purdy completed 27 of 40 passes for 322 yards against a quality Oklahoma defense but his three interceptions did the Cyclones in — including one in the waning moments of the game when Iowa State was driving for the potential winning score. Iowa State outgained Oklahoma by +43 net yards in the Sooners’ opportunity to avenge their earlier loss to them. The Cyclones have held their last two opponents to just 120 and 54 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games are not allowing their last two opponents to rush for at least 125 yards. Oregon was did not earn the right to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game but took full advantage of their opportunity after Washington had to pull out of that game because of COVID. But the Ducks needed a +2 net turnover margin in that game overcome the Trojans outgaining them by 115 net yards. Oregon was outgained by -27.3 net YPG in their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. The Ducks did surrender 320 passing yards to USC which is not an encouraging sign now when facing the gunslinger Purdy. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 280 yards in their last game. QB Tyler Shough struggled in the game as well as he completed only 8 of 15 passes for 91 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against non-conference opponents — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field with a total set at 56.5 to 63. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa State Cyclones (496) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (495). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (4-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 19th with their 53-48 upset loss at LSU as a 1-point favorite. Indiana (6-1) has won their last two games with their 14-6 upset victory at Wisconsin on December 5th as a 12-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss surrendered 593 yards against the Tigers in what has been a horror show of a season for them on defense. But they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels committed six turnovers in that game with quarterback Matt Corral throwing five interceptions in the loss. He should clean that up a bit in this bowl game. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a game where they turned the ball over at least four times — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Corral will be without his top two targets in wide receiver Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah who have opted out for the NFL draft. But those two did not play against LSU — and they still gained 558 total yards with 251 of those yards in the air. Corral needs to make better decisions — and head coach Lane Kiffin’s offensive schemes should generate plenty of yardage no matter who is out there. The Rebels rushed for 307 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. They may be without running back Jerron Early who is questionable with an injury. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after pulling off an upset win as a double-digit dog. The Hoosiers won that game despite being outgained by -125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Indiana defeated Maryland in their previous game by a 27-11 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. This team did most of their good work this season with the dynamic Michael Penix, Jr. but he is out the season with an ankle injury. The offense is simply not the same with Jack Tuttle under center. The Hoosiers gained only 217 yards against Badgers — and they have thrown for only 130 and 115 yards in their two games since Tuttle inherited the quarterbacking gig. Indiana is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be motivated since the Hoosiers have not won a bowl game since 1991 while the Rebels have not won a bowl game since 2016. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and Ole Miss is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on a neutral field. The Rebels are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Look for a close game with Ole Miss’ offense keeping them in this game. 25* CFB ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (491) minus the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (492) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kentucky (4-6) looks to close out their season after a 41-18 win against South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on December 5th. NC State (8-3) has won four games in a row with their 23-13 win against Georgia Tech as a 7-point favorite on December 5th. The Gator Bowl is played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kentucky looks pretty unappealing to bettors with their 4-6 record — but they are battle-tested from their SEC schedule. Head coach Mark Stoops’ team should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Wildcats did get their offense cranking as they generated 492 yards against the Gamecocks. Kentucky is tough when they can match some scoring punch with their consistent quality defense. The Wildcats have covered the  point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 475 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kentucky’s spread option attack was good for 291 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They will have an interim offensive coordinator for this game after Stoopes sacked their current OC for the quarterbacks coach for the Los Angeles Rams. They should have some wrinkles for this game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing for more than 20 points in their last game. They are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a win at home against a conference rival. The Wolfpack have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite their 8-3 record, NC State is being outgained by -26.7 net YPG — and they were outgained by -58.2 net YPG in their five games away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a dog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the ACC. Kentucky has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams outside the SEC — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Gator Bowl ESPN Special with the Kentucky Wildcats (491) minus the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (492). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) and the Clemson Tigers (334) in the Sugar Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (6-0) won the Big Ten Championship Game with their 22-10 win over Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite on December 19th. Clemson (10-1) won the ACC Championship Game with their 34-10 win against Notre Dame on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers cruise into this game with three straight point spread covers since Trevor Lawrence returned to action after his positive COVID test. Clemson has played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. They crushed Virginia Tech by a 45-10 score prior to the ACC Championship Game — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games on the road after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. The Tigers have not allowed more than 17 points in their last three games — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight games. Clemson did generate 541 yards against the Irish — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tigers are fifth in the nation by allowing only 298.5 YPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field as a favorite — and they have played 19 of their last 28 game Under the Total in bowl games. Ohio State rushed for 399 yards in the Big Ten Championship Game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes will want to build off that effort to keep Trevor Lawrence off the field. They have gained at least 491 yards in all six of their games — but they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in four straight games. Additionally, Ohio State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in bowl games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is Clemson’s sixth straight College Football Semifinals appearance — and the previous five Semifinals all finished Under the Total. The Tigers’ defensive coordinator Brent Venables is the best in the business — and he has his defenses ready to go on all cylinders for these games. This is a rematch of last year’s College Football Semifinals which Clemson won by a 29-23 score. Stalled drives kept that game Under (frustratingly for us, last year). Ohio State generated 516 yards but only scored those 23 points. With both Josh Fields and Trevor Lawrence playing once again in this rematch, both teams’ defensive coaching staffs have worked on this hypothetical rematch against these specific quarterbacks for over a calendar year. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) and the Clemson Tigers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334) in the Sugar Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (6-0) won the Big Ten Championship Game with their 22-10 win over Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite on December 19th. Clemson (10-1) won the ACC Championship Game with their 34-10 win against Notre Dame on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: It cannot be understated how significant a negative impact it was for Ohio State to have 22 players out in the Big Ten Championship Game — including their best wide receiver Chris Olave and one of their best defensive players in linebacker Baron Browning. Now, more than ever, I am embracing patience and due diligence before releasing plays after getting burned that morning (and we still should have covered that game with the Buckeyes’ final offensive drive stopping at the 1-yard line as time expired). A few important thoughts guided my decision this morning. The Buckeyes declared wide receiver Chris Olave as available to play this morning (along with their other players including Browning). Many of the 22 players impacted by COVID did not take part in full practice -- but that is not all that uncommon during the season (although not ideal). Now there is a narrative developing that Clemson has a situational advantage for this game having played in five more games. Maybe — although I have never heard the same argument made in college basketball (e.g. Duke has played in five more games than North Carolina — edge Blue Devils!). I just think this intangible is being significantly overplayed. Even though Ohio State has played six fewer games, they have been practicing the entire time! I mean, Ryan Day was pulling two-a-days in August even when the Big Ten canceled their darn season. And it is not as if Ohio State has been practicing against the local Columbus high school team in place of getting those five extra games against The Citadel and Syracuse that Clemson enjoyed. They were practicing and being coached-up playing against each other. Yes, statistically-speaking, elite teams improve in their efficiency numbers as the season moves forward — but not all of that improvement is contained to their game-day experiences. And, by-the-way, if we are going to become laptop fundamentalists on this point (despite the lack of data distinguishing between more practice time experience versus more practice and game time experience, then I would like to gently suggest that those same laptops give the edge to Opponent Adjusted Efficiency to the Buckeyes rather than the Tigers (with Pitt and Boston College and Syracuse and the Citadel). Furthermore, won't the five fewer games played now make this Buckeyes’ team relatively fresher? I remember all the darn Hot Takes four months ago that the potential postponement of the fall season until the spring would be devastating to the “student-athletes” who did not get a full offseason to recover before the fall because the regular season is so grueling. These are just bullshit arguments. What edge Clemson has in being a bit more battle-tested is likely mitigated with Ohio State being a little fresher. The Buckeyes have been motivated by revenge for this potential rematch for over a calendar year — with QB Josh Fields particularly anxious to redeem himself from that late interception in their 29-23 loss in the College Football Semifinals. Clemson has been mediocre at running the football as they average just 163.8 rushing YPG (68th in the nation) with little explosiveness as they had only three rushes for more than 40 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops think this is closer to a coin flip game — and I agree. It not often that the Buckeyes are getting around a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog when getting 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in their last 4 games played in January. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (332) in the Rose Bowl in the College Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-1) looks to bounce back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 19th. Alabama (11-0) won the SEC Championship on December 19th with their 52-46 win over Florida as a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH PLUS THE POINTS: Notre Dame will not be intimidated playing Alabama after two showdowns with a Clemson team that is as talented as the Crimson Tide. The Fighting Irish should come out swinging in this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 9 straight games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Additionally, the Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in January. The Crimson Tide has scored at least 42 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in four straight games. Bama has been fortunate in the turnover battle having at least a +1 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. They will be without starting center Landon Dickerson who suffered a season-ending injury against Florida — and he was the glue of that elite offensive line who called the line formations. Tide quarterback Mac Jones has been vulnerable when facing pressure — and the Irish rank 8th in the nation in pressure rate while also ranking 32nd in sack rate. Both Florida and OIe Miss proved that good offenses can move the ball against their defense: the Gators generated 462 yards of offense (with their 46 points) while the Rebels gained a whopping 647 yards against them for 48 points. The other nine teams Alabama played this season combined to average only 13.3 PPG along with just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Tide’s defensive numbers appear inflated by a weak strength of schedule.

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, the Irish appear undervalued in this spot against all might Alabama that the public loves to support. The laptops project this to be closer to a two-touchdown spread — so the value is on Notre Dame. Considering that there is a decent chance of some backdoor cover action even if Bama rolls since Nick Saban will want to conserve energy while Ian Book will still be airing it out, I expect the Irish to stay within the inflated number. 10* CFB Rose Bowl ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332) in the Rose Bowl in the College Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-1) looks to bounce back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 19th. Alabama (11-0) won the SEC Championship on December 19th with their 52-46 win over Florida as a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide are going to score their share of points. They have scored at least 38 points in all eleven of their games while reaching at least 41 points in each of their games since their opening contest. They have the top Success Rate in the country which suggests they will convert first downs and score touchdowns in the Red Zone. Alabama has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in their last game — and they have scored at least 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. And while they have scored at least 42 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in four straight contests. They raced out to a 35-17 lead at halftime against Florida — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after leading by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game. Both Florida and OIe Miss proved that good offenses can move the ball against their defense: the Gators generated 462 yards of offense (with their 46 points) while the Rebels gained a whopping 647 yards against them for 48 points. The other nine teams Alabama played this season combined to average only 13.3 PPG along with just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Tide’s defensive numbers appear inflated by a weak strength of schedule. Can Notre Dame approach 30 points in this game? I think so. The most impressive thing about their upset victory against Clemson was the 90-yard drive they executed late in the game to force overtime after the Tigers had rallied in that game after their offense slowed down. The Fighting Irish scored less than 27 just twice this season. Perhaps head coach Brian Kelly will try to slow this game down by running the ball? Well, he didn’t try that against Clemson in that upset win. And playing conservatively fails as soon as a team trails by double-digits — so the Irish may not have a choice in how aggressive they play. Notre Dame has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. And while that game finished Under the 58 point total, the Irish have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Irish have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.4 and 8.2 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.25 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has seen the Over go 22-8-2 in their last 32 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in January. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on the faster field turf rather than the grass field like at their home field. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (329) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (330) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Auburn (6-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on December 12th with a 24-10 win at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 22-10 loss to Ohio State as a 16.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Northwestern’s effort and final score against the Buckeyes is skewed to all the surprise players out for Ohio State because of the COVID outbreak that impacted that program. They played — and lost by 12 points (which should have been at least by another, infuriating, touchdown with that game ending on the Wildcats’ 1-yard line). This is an overvalued team. Remember, they lost by nine points at a Michigan State team that finished 2-5 (and we were on Sparty that day!). Northwestern won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their 6-2 record, they only outgained their opponents by +9.8 net YPG. They have a profile of a 4-4 Big Ten WEST team. Not East. West Division. And whatever weight we could put on their elite defense that was 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 15.5 PPG (total defense: 338.8 YPG, ranking 21st in the nation), they will be out starting defensive end Eku Leota and cornerback Greg Newsome who opted-out of this game to enter the transfer window. Teams that have players transferring in lieu of their New Year’s Day bowl game usually lack the roster depth to just “plug-and-play.” As it is, Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Wildcats possess a below-average offense that ranked 99th in the nation by averaging just 348.6 YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring at least 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, this team has lost the turnover battle in three straight games which is a big red flag for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing the turnover battle in at least three straight games. Auburn has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 6 games played with at least two weeks of rest and preparation, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. This team lost their head coach when Gus Malzahn was fired. Boise State’s Bryan Harsin will take over next season with the interim head coach being Kevin Steele. I expect the Tiger players to rally around each other and their coordinators to make a statement after their head coach was sacked (the ole “don’t blame us, blame the idiot who got sacked” principle). Steele is feisty and should have his team fired up. And this entire coaching staff is using this game to audition for their next job. Auburn is dealing with opt-outs with running back Tank Bigsby joining wide receiver Anthony Schwarz and cornerbacks Christian Tuitt and Roger McCreary in choosing to not play in this game. Two things here: (1) these absences have been built into the line and (2) I trust the roster depth of Auburn far more than I do of Northwestern. The Tigers got some good news when safety James Sherwood confirmed he would play today.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn has a big edge at quarterback with Bo Nix having more talent and having played in many more big games than former Indiana transfer Patrick Ramsey for Northwestern. The Wildcats are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games outside the Big Ten while the Tigers have covered the point spread 6 of their last 7 games against non-conference foes. 10* CFB Citrus Bowl ABC-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (329) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (327) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (328) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (9-0) maintained their unbeaten season on December 19th by defeating Tulsa in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game by a 27-24 score as a 13.5-point favorite. Georgia (7-2) closed out their regular season with a 49-14 win at Missouri as a 14-point favorite on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: We have seen this movie before: a Group of Five upstart feeling snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee and the football punditry getting their opportunity to flex their muscles against a disappointed SEC team with questionable motivation experiencing a handful of opt-outs. Georgia will be without the following starters who have opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft: All-SEC right guard Ben Cleveland; linebacker (and heart of their defense) Monty Rice; cornerback Eric Stokes; running back James Cook; tight end Tre McKitty. The Bulldogs have also dealt with some tough injuries with starting defensive tackle Julian Rochester out with a knee and starting center Trey Hill out with his knee. Cornerback Richard LeCounte is questionable with a concussion. Those are a lot of starters not playing in this game — and it neutralizes the “SEC talent edge” against this Cincinnati team since the players Georgia will call on lack the big-time playing experience that helps make that conference the best in the country. I do appreciate that the Bulldogs’ offense is much better with former USC transfer J.T. Daniels under center. I considered this closely. Keep in mind that Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 35 points against an SEC rival in their last game. Daniels completed 16 of 27 passes for 299 yards with three touchdowns in the win against the Tigers — and he led a Bulldogs’ offense that racked up 615 yards. But Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. A powerful passing game is simply not the blueprint that has brought this program their best success under defensive head coach Kirby Smart. They beat South Carolina on the road in their previous game by a 45-16 score — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games on the road by double-digits. The red flag with this team is their pass defense that has allowed 253.4 passing YPG which is 92nd in the nation — and that is before their opt-outs on that side of the football. Behind junior quarterback Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati averages 242.2 passing YPG which is 48th in the nation. He leads a balanced offense that scores 39.3 PPG and averages 467.2 total YPG which is  15th and 20th in the nation. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 269 yards with a touchdown with the win over Tulsa. He also is a dangerous threat with his legs as he ran for 609 yards with 12 touchdowns on a 7.3 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a conference rival. Cincinnati has an outstanding defense as well which has held their opponents to 16.0 PPG along with 310.8 total YPG which ranks 6th and 8th in the nation. This stout defense has helped them cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This game will be played in Atlanta — but I usually think the “home crowd edge” is overrated in bowl games even with stadiums at full capacity. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field with the total set in the 49.5 to 56 range. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the AAC. 10* CFB Peach Bowl ESPN Special with the Cincinnati Bearcats (327) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (328). Best of luck for us — Frank (PS: I will have a busy Friday card with at least one big 25* play in the CFB playoffs with likely the side and total in both games).

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) and the Army Black Knights (212) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: West Virginia (5-4) has lost three of their last five games after their 42-6 loss at Iowa State as a 6-point underdog on December 5th. Army (9-2) has won three straight games after their 10-7 upset win against Air Force as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, West Virginia has played 6 straight games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have scored only 14.8 PPG in those four road games. They are also scoring just 14.3 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 338.3 Yards-Per-Game during that span. West Virginia has a good statistical defense as they rank 5th in the nation by giving up just 297.2 total YPG. And while they gave up six touchdowns to the Cyclones in their last game, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Army has played a decisive 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Black Knights have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They will bring an outstanding defense into this game that ranks second in the nation by both holding their opponents to 14.0 PPG and by allowing just 271.1 total YPG. The Black Knights have the best statistical defense in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 149.9 passing YPG. And while those numbers were improved by facing four triple-option teams this season, they picked off 13 passes this season. But the Army offense is limited as they have only scored 17.7 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 240.0 YPG during that span. They have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total one playing on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Army has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total in December — and West Virginia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in December. Even with the total in the low-40s, expect this game to stay Under in this battle of two stout defensive teams that can struggle in moving the ball on offense. 10* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) and the Army Black Knights (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Army (9-2) has won three straight games after their 10-7 upset win against Air Force as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. West Virginia (5-4) has lost three of their last five games after their 42-6 loss at Iowa State as a 6-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This bowl game presents the Mountaineers the opportunity to redeem themselves from an embarrassing loss — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing by at least four touchdowns on the road in their last game. West Virginia had covered the point spread in their previous three games before that bad loss to the Cyclones — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -15.2 PPG. The Mountaineers have scored only 14.8 PPG in those four road games. They are also scoring just 14.3 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 338.3 Yards-Per-Game during that span. West Virginia has a good statistical defense as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 126.2 rushing YPG. But they have surrendered 183 rushing YPG over their last three contests in getting exposed by Texas, TCU, and then Iowa State. Now this Mountaineers team faces a triple-option rushing attack for the first time since 2015. Furthermore, they will face this challenge without one of their best defensive players in linebacker Tony Fields, Jr. who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Army should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a contest where neither team scored more than 17 points. Additionally, Army has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They will bring an outstanding defense into this game that ranks second in the nation by both holding their opponents to 14.0 PPG and by allowing just 271.1 total YPG. The Black Knights have the best statistical defense in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 149.9 passing YPG. And while those numbers were improved by facing four triple-option teams this season, they picked off 13 passes this season.

FINAL TAKE: Army is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral field. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his team ready to play. West Virginia is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in December and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight bowl games. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field when favored. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (321) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (322). THE SITUATION: Ball State (6-1) looks to build off their 38-28 upset win against Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as a 12.5-point underdog on December 18th. San Jose State (322) remained unbeaten this season after they upset Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by a 34-20 score as a 6.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at Arizona Stadium in Tuscon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State is a feisty veteran team that put it all together this season. Head coach Mike Neu got a two-year extension last year despite never posting a winning record in his first four years with the Cardinals program. Ball State finished 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference last season after losing three games in November by just eight combined points. Fourteen starters returned from that group — and after an opening loss to Miami (OH), this group rattled off six straight wins to get this opportunity to play in this bowl game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Ball State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least two straight games against conference rivals. And while the Cardinals allowed 499 yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 405 yards in their last game. Ball State will not have running back Caleb Huntley who opted-out for this game but they have a capable backup in Tye Evans. Moving forward, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. San Jose State may be due for a letdown after continuing their perfect season by upsetting Boise State. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after pulling off an upset loss to a conference rival as an underdog getting at least 6 points. San Jose State has also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after pulling off an upset win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Spartans held the Broncos to just 258 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. This San Jose State team may be too one-dimensional as they ranked only 85th in the nation by averaging 141.6 rushing YPG. I am skeptical of the strength of the Mountain West Conference this season — and this is the Spartans’ first non-conference game this season. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. The Cardinals have a gunslinger of a quarterback in Drew Plitt. Ball State should keep this game close against a San Jose team that is an unreliable favorite laying more than a touchdown. 10* CFB Arizona Bowl CBS-TV Special with the Ball State Cardinals (321) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (317) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (318) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (3-7) snapped a three-game losing streak on December 19th with a 51-32 upset win at home against Missouri as a 1-point underdog. Tulsa (6-2) looks to bounce back from a 27-24 loss at Cincinnati as a 13.5-point underdog on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOG PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): On paper, it may look easy to take a 6-2 team against the first-ever 3-7 team to play in a bowl game (I think … at least in my memory). Yet this Tulsa team was very fortunate to achieve six wins after winning three of their four games decided by one scoring possession. They pulled off a miracle comeback victory in double-overtime against Tulane. The analytics folks project a Golden Hurricane victory in the 7-point range — but the laptops do not have the benefit of a robust non-conference schedule to enrich its data. The anecdotal evidence so far in the bowl games does not suggest that the American Athletic Conference was strong this year. AAC teams have lost three of their four bowl games with a -34 net point differential in those games. The lone victor was Memphis who defeated Florida Atlantic representing Conference USA that is generally considered a step down in competition. The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by a field goal or less. And with senior quarterback Zach Smith completed only 13 of 30 passes against the Bearcats for just 166 yards with two interceptions in the loss, Tulsa has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Tulsa has lost seven of their ten games — but these were all against SEC opponents. This is a team that upset LSU and played Georgia to just a 7-point loss in Athens. This is a roster of SEC talent which is generally a few notches above the quality of player in the American Athletic Conference. And the Bulldogs lost three of their four games decided by one scoring possession — this could have been a team with a 5-5 record with a couple of breaks. The offense improved under first-year head coach Mike Leach as he transitioned away from K.J. Costello to freshman Will Rogers at quarterback. Mississippi State scored 28.3 PPG while averaging 388.3 total YPG over their last three games which was +7.6 PPG and +41.1 YPG above their season averages. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game at home where both teams scored at least 31 points. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games are losing five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in December. For Tulsa, this is their first bowl game since 2016 in the second-season under head coach Philip Montgomery. The weather will also be a bit dicey with rain expected and high winds in Fort Worth. The better athletes that were faced tougher tests this season will be on the Mississippi State sidelines — and Leach will want to go out a winner to build momentum for next season. 10* CFB Armed Forces Bowl ESPN Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (317) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (316) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (315) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (8-2) won the Big 12 Conference Championship Game on December 19th with their 27-21 win over Iowa State as a 5-point favorite. Florida (8-3) lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on December 19th by a 52-46 score as a 16.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a  neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gators have seen eight players opt-out of this game as of this writing on Wednesday afternoon. The losses are significant. On offense, quarterback Kyle Trask has lost his top four targets in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receivers Trevon Grimes and Kadarius Toney. Jacob Copeland is already out tonight due to COVID. These four players account for 174 receptions for 2778 yards with 34 touchdowns. Th cupboard is not dry for Trask — former Penn State transfer Brandon Shorter along with some intriguing freshman will get their opportunity in this game. But these are untested players. None of Trask’s targets tonight have caught more than 13 passes on third down or more than 13 passes of at least 20 yards. The Florida defense will be without leading tackler in linebacker Ventral Miller and senior nose tackle Kyre Campbell. They depart a disappointing Gators’ defense that allowed 28.6 PPG and 404.7 total YPG with both marks ranking 86th in the nation. These losses are simply too much to overcome for a team that got upset against LSU before being overrun by the Crimson Tide. As it is, Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games are losing two in a row to SEC rivals. The Gators surrendered 89 points in their last two games after giving up 37 to the Tigers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. Florida has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Sooners have won seven games in a row after losing two of their first three games. This group is much better now at the end of December as compared to where they were in October. Redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler has steadily improved this season — he has completed 68.0% of his passes for 2784 yards with 25 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Oklahoma also got back running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins in Game Six after both served five-game suspensions. Stevenson rushed for 479 yards with six touchdowns on a  5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. Perkins registered 5.5 sacks. Under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, this Oklahoma defense has made significant improvements. They ranked 19th in the nation by allowing only 334.6 YPG and they held their opponents to just 21.9 PPG. They will be without cornerback Tre Brown but he is their only opt-out as of this writing. Under Grinch, the Sooner rank in the top-ten in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma has lost three straight College Football Semifinals — they should be very motivated to get a win in a bowl game to end their season. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against SEC foes — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Cotton Bowl ESPN Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (316) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (312) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (311) in the Mayo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (3-3) evened their record at 3-3 on December 19th with their 20-17 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 10.5-point favorite. Wake Forest (4-4) looks to rebound from their 45-21 upset loss at Louisville as a 1-point favorite on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin enters this game having failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. While this has been disappointing to bettors, it does offer a good sign for this game. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Additionally, Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 49 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Badgers’ defense will be the best unit in this game — by far. Wisconsin leads the nation by only allowing 263.5 total YPG. They are also 6th in the country by holding their opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonard is one of the best in the business. The Badgers rank 5th in the nation in stopping both the run and the pass as they are allowing just 93.7 rushing YPG and 169.8 passing YPG. Redshirt freshman Graham Mertz began the season with a strong effort against Illinois before struggling the rest of the season. But this remains the Badgers’ most highly-coveted recruit at the quarterback position so his ceiling is high. Wisconsin should be playing better on offense than their 22.3 PPG scoring average suggests. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 bowl games played in December. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. Rust is a significant concern for this team as they have played only once since November 14th. Their strength of schedule also raises red flags. One of their four victories was against an FCS school in Campbell. Their three remaining wins against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse were versus teams that did not end the year with a record over .500 — and those three teams combined for an 11-21 mark. Facing the Demon Deacons’ defense may be just what the doctor ordered for Wisconsin. Wake Forest allows 456.9 total YPG along with 31.6 PPG which ranks 107th and 77th in the FBS. Mertz should find success in the passing game against this Demon Deacons defense that allows 265.9 passing YPG which is 107th in the nation. Wake Forest ranks 93rd in the country in opponent’s Success Rate against the pass and the run. And in their four games away from home, the Demon Deacons allowed 40.8 PPG along with 469.8 YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: There may be few head coaches that get more out of his talent that Dave Clawson — but he will be challenged in this game. Running back Kenneth Walker III and defensive end Carlos Basham, Jr. are both opting out of this game. 20* CFB Mayo Bowl ESPN Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (312) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (298) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (297) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Colorado (4-1) lost their first game of the season on December 12th with their 38-21 loss to Utah as a 3-point favorite. Texas (6-3) closed out their regular season on December 5th with a 69-31 win at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado has been one of the surprises of the season with first-year head coach Karl Dorrell taking this job in late February just a few weeks before COVID would shut things down but still leading his team to four wins in five games. The Buffaloes are 16th in the nation by averaging 218.4 rushing YPG. This will be a highly-motivated football team playing in just their second bowl game in the last 13 seasons. Colorado likes to recruit in Texas which was an important source of players back in their Big 8 conference days — so they will want to take full advantage of the opportunity to play in San Antonio. The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Longhorns have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while the Texas offense exploded for 608 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game. This team has been pretty fortunate with turnover luck. They rank 18th in the nation with a +0.78 net turnover margin per game mark. They forced three turnovers for a +3 net turnover mark against the Wildcats to help fuel that victory. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games are forcing at least three turnovers in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 55 road games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Texas did not turn the ball over again Kansas State — and they have not turned the ball over more than once in five straight games. Yet the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not turning the ball over in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not committing more than one turnover in at least five straight games. Texas had turned the ball over seven times in a three-game stretch before this recent five-game run. The Longhorns run defense surrendered 274 yards to the Wildcats which is a dangerous sign when facing this Colorado team. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. And their pass defense ranks 115th in the nation by allowing 274.2 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has also faced a handful of opt-outs in what has been a disappointing three-loss season. How motivated will they be to face a Pac-12 team that had three straight 5-7 seasons before this year? The Longhorns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Alamo Bowl ESPN Special with the Colorado Buffaloes (298) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (297). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (296) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (295) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (8-2) gets to take the field again after being embarrassed in their last game on December 12th in a 62-26 upset loss to North Carolina as a 3-point favorite. Oklahoma State (7-3) comes off a 42-3 victory at Baylor on December 12th as a 6-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Miami should be motivated to get the bad taste out of their mouths in this bowl game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Their defense was simply a mockery against the Tar Heels as they surrendered 778 yards. The Hurricanes are dealing with some opt-outs with defensive linemen Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche not playing to prepare for the NFL draft. While those two players combined for 12.5 sacks and 30 tackles-for-loss, what Miami needs is a better effort from players who want to be on the field after the performance against North Carolina. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. The Tar Heels raced out to a 34-10 halftime lead in that game — but Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They also surrendered a remarkable 555 yards on the ground in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. The good news for the Hurricanes is that D’Eriq King will be playing in this game and returning for a final season next year. The quarterback has completed 64% of his passes for 2573 passing yards with 22 touchdowns while adding 526 rushing yards with another four touchdowns. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread after winning two of their last three games. The Cowboys did not cover the point spread in their win over the Bears — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. Oklahoma State will have their star wide receiver, Tylan Wallace, playing in this game but their star running back, Chuba Hubbard, has opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in  4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. The Hurricanes have only won one bowl game since 2006 — and with big motivation to redeem themselves from their bad loss against the Tar Heels and a geographical edge for this game being played in their home state, they should win this game (but take the points for some insurance!). 10* CFB Cheez-It Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (296) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (295). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). THE SITUATION: New England (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 22-12 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite at the kickoff of that game. Buffalo (11-3) has won four straight games with their 48-19 win at Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills are the trendy team many observers are tabbing as the best team in the NFL as they ride their four-game winning streak while paying off bettors in six straight weeks. But these are the circumstances that could lead to an emotional letdown for this team — especially after an easy 29-point victory against a Broncos team with almost their entire secondary wiped out by injury. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after they won at least four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in six straight games. Despite their 11 wins this season, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +30.7 net YPG. They have won five of their six games decided by one scoring possession. This team now plays on Monday Night Football where they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The Bills are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC East foes. New England has rebounded to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after an upset loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a road favorite. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Patriots return home where they are 4-2 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should stay competitive in this game because of their defense — they limit their visitors to just 19.3. They have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG along with 319.7 YPG. They held the Dolphins to just 133 passing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Remember, the Patriots have won their last two games at home against Baltimore and Arizona who are looking to make the playoffs this weekend. They are 38-13-3 ATS  in their last 54 games as an underdog under Bill Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home as an underdog. New England has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games in the final two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick has been coy about who his starting quarterback will be tonight — but I do expect his team to revel in the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler. The Patriots lost the first meeting between these two teams on November 1st by a 24-21 score — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when avenging a loss by a field goal or less. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-3) has won four straight games with their 48-19 win at Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. New England (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 22-12 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite at the kickoff of that game.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. New England has also played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Patriots’ offense is sputtering with mediocre quarterback play combining with a lack of talent at the skill positions. They are generating just 271.3 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Head coach Bill Belichick has been coy this week about who his starting quarterback will be as he may use these final two games to let Jarett Stidham audition for the job next season now that they have been eliminated from the playoffs. Stidham is completing just 54.5% of his passes in limited action this season while lacking the mobility of Newton. New England has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Patriots have played six straight games Under the Total, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. New England is playing well on defense — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG along with 319.7 YPG. They did give up 383 yards to the Dolphins last week but they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Patriots return home where they holding their guests to just 19.3 PPG. New England has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two in a row away from home. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Buffalo held the Broncos to just 255 yards of offense including only 115 yards in the air. The Bills have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has steadily improved their play on defense after seeing some significant turnover from that unit from last season. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with 293.7 total YPG. Head coach Sean McDermott is making things easier on his defense by leaning more on their running game. The Bills are second in the NFL in passing but just 21st in rushing YPG. But Zack Moss rushed for 81 yards last week which was a season-high for the former Utah running back. Look for Buffalo to use this game to continue to develop and fine-tune their ground game as they prepare to make a deep playoff run — and this commitment to running the football will burn time off the clock to help our Under. The Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49.5 range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the total in that 42.5 to 49.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo won the first meeting between these two teams by a 24-21 score on November 1st. New England has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (480) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (479). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 24-16 win over Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (10-4) has won four of their last five games with their 46-25 win over Detroit last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. The Packers won this game despite Aaron Rodgers passing for just 143 yards. He was efficient — he completed 20 of 29 passes. And he was supported by an effective rushing attack that generated 195 yards on 27 carries. These are good signs for this game as the Packers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they did not pass for at least 150 yards. They stay at home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +10.1 net PPG. They are also outgaining their visitors by +86.1 net YPG. The Green Bay defense is playing better as the season moves on as they have held their last three opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with 311.7 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 65 home games after winning at least five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not covered the point spread in four of the last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games at Lambeau after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. And while they raced out to a 24-15 lead in the first half last week against the Lions, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against Detroit last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after a turnover margin of +3 or better in their last game. The Titans lack a pass rush — even when their supposed specialist, Jadeveon Clowney was not on Injured Reserve. When Tennessee takes the lead, their opponents can keep scoring relying on their passing attack. The Titans are 29th in the NFL by allowing 276 passing YPG — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their passes against their defense. Tennessee is 27th in the league by allowing 390.5 total YPG — and they are giving up 414.0 YPG over their last three contests. Now Tennessee goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (480) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-4) has won four of their last five games with their 46-25 win over Detroit last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite. Green Bay (11-3) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 24-16 win over Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have scored at least 30 points in five straight games while averaging a robust 37.4 PPG over that stretch. Yet the Tennessee defense has allowed at least 24 points in five of their last six games. The Titans lack a pass rush — even when their supposed specialist, Jadeveon Clowney was not on Injured Reserve. When Tennessee takes the lead, their opponents are able to keep scoring relying on their passing attack. The Titans are 29th in the NFL by allowing 276 passing YPG — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their passes against their defense. Tennessee is 27th in the league by allowing 390.5 total YPG — and they are giving up 414.0 YPG over their last three contests. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans’ last 26 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Titans ran for 195 yards led by Derrick Henry’s 147 yards, they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Henry’s rushing sets up Ryan Tannehill’s play-action passing — there is a reason that Tennessee is scoring 31.1 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road. Green Bay is scoring 31.0 PPG themselves. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Packers have played three straight Unders, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. Their 24 points scored last week was the first time in their last five games where they did not score at least 30 points. Once Green Bay gets rolling with Aaron Rodgers under center, they are happy to engage in scoring contests if necessary. The Packers have played 19 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. Furthermore, Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while it might snow tonight at Lambeau Field, Rodgers has thrown 99 touchdown passes in his 43 games played inclement weather at home in Green Bay.

FINAL TAKE: Bad weather will also likely play right into the hands of Henry and the Titans’ play-action game — so I see the potential for snow as a net-plus regarding this Over play. Tennessee has played 5 straight games Over the Total as an underdog and 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played in December, the game finished Over the Total 8 times. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

A 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-10) has lost three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Washington (6-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-15 loss at home to Seattle.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The news that Alex Smith would be out for the Football Team leaving Dwayne Haskins as their starting quarterback is enough to push the Panthers from a 10*/20* range to a strong 25* play. Carolina is underrated. They have been in a position to win or tie the game in the fourth quarter in all eight of their losses — and they are a frustrating 2-8 in games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their record, the Panthers are only being outgained by -2.3 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle by just -1.7 net YPG in their seven road games. Despite losing three in a row, they have outgained their opponents by +21.6 net YPG after dominating the Packers last Saturday in that department by a 364 to 291 yardage margin. These are the underlying numbers of a team that would usually be 7-7. In an expected close game that will likely be decided in the fourth quarter, I will take Teddy Bridgewater over Haskins. The veteran is completing 69.8% of his passes for 3360 yards this season. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they trailed at halftime last week by a 21-3 score, the Panthers have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Football Team gave up 181 rushing yards to the Seahawks last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Haskins completed 38 of 55 passes for 295 yards last week — but he also threw two interceptions. He is completing only 62.9% of his passes this season with just a 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has five interceptions along with five touchdown passes. He also seems to have completely lost the confidence of the coaching staff and teammates. Remember, he was relegated to the third-string quarterback early in the season — he is starting this game only because of injuries to Smith and Kyle Allen. Haskins breaking COVID protocols by visiting an adult establishment last week does not inspire confidence about his leadership skills. The announcement that Smith cannot play was likely demoralizing for this team fighting for a playoff spot. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be doubly motivated — not only to play the role of spoiler to Washington’s playoff hopes but in facing their former coach in Ron Rivera. While Rivera was well-liked, facing their old coach should ensure a spring in the steps of this Panthers team. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-3) is reeling with three straight losses after their embarrassing 27-17 upset loss at Cincinnati on Monday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (10-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 27-20 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: We had the Bengals as out AFC North Game of the Year — so I am well aware of the problems of this Steelers’ team right now. They are decimated by injuries at linebacker and their offensive line is beat-up. And Big Ben Roethlisberger looks old and cannot deliver the ball down the field. Got it. But this a good buy-low spot for Pittsburgh. Part of the problem with the Bengals’ game was that the Steelers were taking them lightly while it was the de-facto Super Bowl for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh did play better in the second half of that game but could not rally from the 17-0 hole they dug themselves at halftime. The Steelers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games at home after an upset loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional foe. Part of the problem for Pittsburgh has been their lack of running game — their 86 rushing yards last week were the most they generated in their last four contests. But the Steelers have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. Pittsburgh does expect a healthier James Connor for this game which should help them get their ground game going again. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. And while the Colts have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Indianapolis defeated the Texans last week despite being outgained by -75 net yards after surrendering 42 yards. The Colts gave up 362 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. And while Indy has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in at least three straight games. The Colts’ defense has taken a step back as of late as they have allowed their last three opponents to average 415.7 total YPG. Indy is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC opponents. Look for a desperate and angry Steelers team to play their best game in a month. 20* NFL Indianapolis-Pittsburgh CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (462) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (461). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (7-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 30-27 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami (9-5) has won three of their last four games with their 22-12 upset win against New England that closed with them being a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are due for an emotional letdown after defeating Bill Belichick and his Patriots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory as a home dog against a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after pulling an upset against an AFC East foe. The Dolphins got a surprising rushing effort from undrafted rookie Salvon Ahmed who ran for 122 yards while leading an attack that generated 250 yards on the ground. But Miami has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. And while rookie Tua Tagovailoa completed 20 of 26 passes, it was for only 145 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not passing for more than 150 yards. This team is living off forcing turnovers — they lead the NFL with 26 takeaways. But turnovers are fickle — and if they dry up, the Dolphins are a team that has to win games despite being outgained by -30.5 net YPG. On the road, it is even worse as Miami is being outgained by -36.0 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Las Vegas has likely played themselves out of the playoffs — but they can still play the role of spoiler. Despite the losing streak, they have outgained their last three opponents by +26.4 net YPG. The Raiders allowed 402 yards to the Chargers in that heartbreaking loss last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 402 yards in their last game. Derek Carr is available to play in this game after leaving the game last week with a groin injury. Marcus Mariota was impressive in relief as he completed 17 of 28 passes for 226 yards while adding another 88 yards on the ground. But it is the running game that will be key for the Raiders in this game. They rushed for 173 yards against the Chargers — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They also outrushed LA by 77 net yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The pressure is off the Raiders given their recent slide — but they can make things difficult for Miami who is not used to playing games with playoff implications. The Dolphins control their fate to claim the final wildcard spot in the AFC — but a loss would put Baltimore back in play to take their spot. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Month with the Las Vegas Raiders (462) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (283) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (284) in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (8-1) bounced-back from their 15-14 loss at North Carolina State to shut out UMass at home by a 45-0 score on November 27th. Coastal Carolina (11-0) remained undefeated this season with the 42-38 win at Troy on December 12th as a 12-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty should build off the momentum of their shutout win as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a victory by at least 17 points. The Flames not only narrowly lost to the Wolfpack but they defeated Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. While the Chanticleers are getting all the Group of Five love for being undefeated, this Liberty team behind head coach Hugh Freeze wants more respect. They have averaged 513.7 total YPG over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 475 YPG in their last three games. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Chanticleers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 31 points. Furthermore, Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when at least 80 combined points were scored. Quarterback Grayson McCall completed 24 of 29 passes for 338 yards in the win over Troy — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And while Troy has averaged 484 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG over a three game-stretch.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Liberty has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Cure Bowl ESPN Special with the Liberty Flames (283) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (459) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (460). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-9) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 41-33 upset loss at Dallas as a 4-point favorite. Arizona (8-6) has won their last two games with their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco has suffered three straight upset losses to eliminate them from the playoff race. The reigning NFC champions have simply been ravaged by injuries. Yet they can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a divisional rival. They have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Niners have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset loss on the road as the favorite. The 49ers’ defense is playing pretty well — hey are allowing only 311.0 net YPG in their last three games while holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG. Third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard will be under center given injuries to Jimmy Garappolo and Nick Mullens. This is his first start since 2018 — but he does have ten professional starts under his belt. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in the last 10 road games as an underdog, the Niners have covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games after a win at home. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 36 passes for 406 yards last week against the Eagles, the Cardinals have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona gained 526 yards against the Eagles after gaining 390 yards against the New York Giants in their previous game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (459) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-9) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 41-33 upset loss at Dallas as a 4-point favorite. Arizona (8-6) has won their last two games with their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Turnovers are killing head coach Mike Shanahan’s team. The Niners have lost the turnover battle in three straight games while being burdened with a -2 or wore net turnover margin in two straight games. San Francisco has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least three games with a -1 or worse net turnover margin — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two straight games with a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard will be under center given injuries to Jimmy Garappolo and Nick Mullens. This is his first start since 2018. Look for Shanahan to commit to running the football to take some pressure off the former Iowa quarterback. San Francisco needs to limit turnovers since their defense is playing well. They are allowing only 311.0 net YPG in their last three games — and they hold their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Niners’ last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 36 passes for 406 yards last week against the Eagles, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona tallied 526 total yards against Philly but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Cards’ defense gave up 305 yards to Jalen Hurts in the win — but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games against fellow NFC West foes. Arizona won the first meeting between these two teams by a 26-20 score. Expect a similar result. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UTSA Roadrunners (286) plus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (285) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: The University of Texas-San Antonio (7-4) has won three games in a row with their 49-17 win over North Texas as a 1.5-point favorite on November 28th. UL-Lafayette (9-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-21 upset win at Appalachian State on December 4th as a 3.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: I worry about the motivation for the Ragin’ Cajuns who entered the season trying to prove they were the best football team not representing a Power Five conference. They avenged two straight Sun Belt Conference championship game losses to the Mountaineers in their most recent game — and they had the chance to avenge their lone loss this season to Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. Yet that opportunity was canceled because of COVID leaving these players with a lackluster game against a four-loss UTSA team where they are two-touchdown favorites. Meh. But the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning six games in a row. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. And while UL-Lafayette has forced three turnovers in each of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after forcing at least three turnovers in two straight games. UTSA generated 624 yards in their win over the Mean Green in their last contest — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have got their offense cranking during their three-game winning streak as they are averaging 41.3 PPG over that stretch while averaging 509.3 total YPG. They also have held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG. They did not commit a turnover against North Texas — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not committing a turnover in their last game. Furthermore, UTSA has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. UL-Lafayette has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl ABC-TV Special with the UTSA Roadrunners (286) plus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (285). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (287) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (288) in the Lending Tree Bowl. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 37-19 win at Charlotte as a 3-point underdog on December 6th. Georgia State (5-4) has won three of their last four games after their 30-24 win against Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite on November 28th. This game will be played at Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky should build off their momentum in this game. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after winning two games in a row — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games on the road after a point spread cover. Western Kentucky possesses an outstanding defense that is 17th in the nation in Success Rate against the pass and 7th in the FBS in opponent’s pass completion rate. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 58 games as an underdog, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 39 of these games. Georgia State victory the Eagles flew Over the 51 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Panthers’ surrendered a whopping 296 rushing yards to Georgia Southern while being outgained on the ground by -251 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after being outrushed by at least 150 yards in their last game. Additionally, Georgia State is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and Western Kentucky is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December. 10* CFB Lending Tree Bowl ESPN Special with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (287) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (451) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (452). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-8) has lost two games in a row with their 33-27 loss to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (10-4) has lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two games in a row. Head coach Mike Zimmer’s team has started slow in both losses as they trailed the Bears by a 20-10 score at halftime last week after being behind to Tampa Bay by a 17-6 halftime score in their previous game. But the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight contests. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to an NFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a point spread loss. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 home games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 56 home games in the final four weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (451) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-8) has lost two games in a row with their 33-27 loss to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (10-4) has lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Minnesota did gain 397 yards in the loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Kirk Cousins has been a turnover machine being responsible for 18 giveaways including his 13 interceptions which is tied for the second-most in the NFL. But he is leading an offense that has scored at least 27 points in four of their last five games. Yet the depleted Vikings’ defense has allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five contests. Minnesota is running out of linebackers. Both Eric Kendricks and Troy Dye are out for this game while Todd Davis is doubtful. Anthony Barr is already out the season — as is defensive end Danielle Hunter. The Vikings were already allowing 27.7 PPG to the dismay of head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against NFC opponents. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Drew Brees was rusty in his first game back on the field after missing four straight games with his rib injuries — but he played better as that game went on by leading his team to 20 points in the second half. New Orleans was outgained by -126 net yards but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after being outgained by at least -100 yards in their last game. The Saints’ defense has surrendered at least 179 yards in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last  5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total. With Brees starting under center, the Saints have scored at least 24 points in all ten of his games — and they have scored at least 27 points in eight of those contests. And outside of a five-game stretch from November 8th through December 6th where the New Orleans’ defense allowed just 44 combined points, they allowed at least 23 points in each of their remaining nine games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Expect New Orleans to at least reach their 28.4 PPG scoring average against this injury-ravaged Vikings’ defense with Cousins scoring enough points to keep it interesting. 25* NFL Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (279) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (280) in the Camellia Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-2) has suffered two straight upset losses after losing in the Conference USA championship game last Friday night to UAB by a 22-13 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Buffalo (5-1) was also upset last Friday in the Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-28 as a 12.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Cramton Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall had won their first seven games this season before getting upset at home to Rice by a 20-0 score before the Conference USA championship game. The Thundering Herd should get their offense going again after two subpar games as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Marshall does have running back Brenden Knox opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft but they still have Sheldon Evans who ran for 248 yards with four touchdowns splitting time with Knox. The Thundering Herd still averaged 30.6 PPG this season. Redshirt freshman Grant Wells should play better in this bowl game after struggling in these last two contests. Marshall has only covered the point spread once in their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games after playing at least three straight games against conference rivals. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Bulls’ live off running the football — they lead the nation by averaging 309.5 rushing YPG. They expect to have Jaret Patterson for this game despite an injured leg that limited him to only 47 yards on 18 carries last week. He may not be at 100% — and he may only see limited action this afternoon. Marshall is outstanding in stopping the run — they are second in the nation by allowing only 88.9 rushing YPG. They hold opposing rushers to just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to rush for more than 2.75 YPC. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Camellia Bowl ESPN Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (279) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (277) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (276) in the New Mexico Bowl. THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (4-4) has won two of their last three games with their 38-12 win over UNLV as an 18.5-point favorite on December 12th. Houston (3-4) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-27 upset loss at Memphis as a 7-point favorite on December 12th. The New Mexico Bowl was moved to a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, given COVID restrictions in Albuquerque.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: These are far from ideal circumstances for the Cougars. Houston has had eight games either canceled, postponed, or moved due to COVID this fall. This will be just their second game since November 14th so rust is a significant concern. As it is, this is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. Head coach Dana Holgorsen is also experiencing a handful of opt-outs from some of his best players. Two-time All-American Athletic Conference wide receiver Marquez Stevenson will bypass this game to focus on the Senior Bowl. Defensive end Payton Turner with his team-leading 5.0 sacks along with linebacker Grant Stuard who led the conference with 8.7 tackles per game will not play in this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Houston holds a geographical advantage with this game being played about 265 miles from campus. But the Cougars were outscored by -5.0 PPG while outgained by -20.0 net YPG when playing away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. And after their upset loss to the Tigers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Hawai’i had their offense cranking against the Rebels as they generated 530 yards in that victory — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while Houston is 31st in the FBS by averaging 268.1 passing YPG, the Rainbow Warriors are 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 190.6 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing a team from the American Athletic Conference. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the Mountain West Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 bowl games. With this being the Rainbow Warriors’ first bowl game on the mainland since 2008 and with them being coached by a veteran in Todd Graham in his first year with the program, expect a spirited effort from the underdogs. 10* CFB New Mexico Bowl ESPN Special with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (277) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276) in the Montgomery Bowl. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-3) aw their four-game winning streak snapped on December 10th with a 45-31 upset loss at home to Southern Mississippi as a 9.5-point favorite. Memphis (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 30-27 upset win against Houston as a 7-point underdog on December 12th. This game is being played at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: FAU has suffered two straight upset losses with their setback to the Golden Eagles preceded by a 20-9 upset loss at Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. These disappointments should ensure that head coach Willie Fritz will have his team ready to play in this bowl game. After his unceremonious departure from Florida State last season, Fritz cannot afford to let up in the slightest. As it is, Florida Atlantic has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting upset twice in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing two games in a row by double-digits. And in their last 9 games after a point spread loss, the Owls have played 7 of covered the point spread in 7 of these games. FAU should be able to slow down the Tigers’ offensive attack. With former South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt as his defensive coordinator, the Owls have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They rank 9th in the nation by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank 15th in the FBS by giving up just 326.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play has helped them cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Memphis is 26th in the nation with a total offense that averages 451.5 YPG. But the Tigers have scored only 20.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 296.7 total YPG. They managed just 300 total yards in their upset victory over Houston. Memphis has then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win over an American Athletic Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a narrow win by three points or less at home. Memphis goes back on the road for this bowl game where they have lost three of their four games this season while scoring just 17.0 PPG and averaging -80 YPG below their season average. Opt-outs have taken away some of the best skill position talents from the offense of Ryan Silverfield’s team in his first year as the head coach of the program. Running back Kenneth Gainwell along with wide receivers Damonte Coxie and John Williams are no longer with the team despite starting the year on the roster. The Tigers were outgained by the Cougars in their last game by -109 net yards but eked out that game with the help of an 85-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Memphis defense is sketchy as they are allowing 448.7 YPG which is 102nd in the nation. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in December including five of their last six games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight bowl games. FAU has won and covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (274) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (273) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (5-4) looks to rebound from a 52-10 loss at TCU as a 21-point underdog to close out their regular season on December 12th. Georgia Southern (7-5) has lost three of their last four games with their 34-26 loss at home to Appalachian State as an 8.5-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Southern has serious injuries at quarterback. Their four-year starter, Shai Werts, is doubtful because of a shoulder injury that has kept him out of the last two games. I have waited on this game for updates on Werts status — as of 1:30 PM ET, I am seeing speculation that he is listed as number one on the depth chart but that could be a symbolic gesture. Even if he plays, he may not be at 100% and head coach Chad Lunsford may limit his time on the field. This is far from ideal for the Eagles even if he plays. The offense would be down to third-stringer Miller Mosley if Werts cannot go since second-stringer Justin Tomlin is out with an ankle. Werts has been the engine behind this offense for four years. Mosley completed only 5 of 14 passes in relief against the Mountaineer for 122 yards with a touchdown but two interceptions. He added 49 rushing yards but on 13 carries — he lacks the mobility of Werts and Tomlin. Georgia Southern managed only 349 yards against Appalachian State without Werts. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing three of their last four games. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. And while the Eagles have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least four or five of their last six contests. Louisiana Tech will benefit from the time to prepare for the Georgia Southern shotgun/pistol spread offense. They surrendered 333 rushing yards to the Horned Frogs in their last game but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 333 rushing yards in their last contest. Three turnovers played a large role in that blowout loss to TCU — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Louisiana Tech has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And while the Bulldogs have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Head coach Skip Holtz will not have senior quarterback Luke Anthony available for this game given his leg injury but that just means the keys to the offense go to sophomore Aaron Allen who has split time under center this season. Allen has completed 64.1% of his passes for 561 yards with four touchdown passes but five interceptions. The game plan should be tailored to better take advantage of Allen’s dual-threat strengths. Frankly, Holtz may also give snaps to one of the two freshman quarterbacks on the roster. No matter what, we can be confident that Holtz will be taking this game very seriously. Louisiana Tech has won six straight bowl games which is the longest streak in the nation. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on a neutral field. Holtz’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games playing off a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern won five of their seven games decided by one-scorning possession — and they were outscored by -4.0 PPG and outgained by -45.2 net YPG when playing away from home. Expect a close game. 10* CFB New Orleans Bowl ESPN Special with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (274) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272) in the Boca Raton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Central Florida (6-3) enters this bowl game coming off a 58-46 win at South Florida on November 27th as a 25-point favorite. BYU (10-1) rebounded from their 22-17 loss at Coastal Carolina to defeat San Diego State by a 28-14 score on December 12th as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And while UCF raced out to a 31-14 halftime lead against the Bulls, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after leading by at least 17 points in the first half of their last game. The Knights saw 17 players opt-out from the team by October either from COVID concerns or legal problems — but head coach Josh Heupel has been able to roll with it with the deep roster he has assembled. Wide receiver Marlon Williams opted-out for this game to prepare for the NFL — but this group looks pretty much intact from the one that lost to Cincinnati by just three points. Heupel is 41-6 in his three seasons as the head coach of this program. It is rare that his team is not in a position to win in the fourth quarter. The Regression Gods were on his side early in his career here as the Knights enjoyed a five-game winning streak in games decided by one scoring possession during their 25-game unbeaten streak in 2017-18. The fickle Regression Gods were bound to make their presence known — and UCF lost all three of their games last year by seven combined points. These Gods were not done with the Knights this season as their three losses to Tulsa, Memphis, and Cincinnati were by just 12 combined points. UCF is now 1-7 in their last eight games decided by one scoring possession under Heupel. So don’t bet the money-line (PS: don’t do that anyway) — grab the points and be happy with cashing a winning ticket. The Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Led by sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel, UCF is second in the nation by averaging 585.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are fifth in the nation with a 44.3 PPG scoring average. Gabriel has seven games where he has passed for at least 300 yards — and he topped 400 passing yards in four of those games. BYU has thrived in being opportunistic on defense — they are 18th in the nation with a +0.82 net turnover margin. But the Knights have not turned the ball over more than once in six straight games. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least four or five of their last six games. And while BYU has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game, BYU is just 1-3-1 ATS. Junior QB Zach Wilson did pass for 310 yards with three touchdowns against the Aztecs — but they are just 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 70 or higher — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops love this BYU team — but those analytics are relying on limited data from non-conference games that serves to vet out relative conference strength (already the college basketball quantitative projections are much better given the much larger sample size even by December). Central Florida has a geographical edge with a short trip from Orlando to Boca Raton. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. THE SITUATION: Nevada (6-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-20 upset loss against San Jose State (in the Spartans’ temporary home in La Vegas) as a 2.5-point favorite on December 11th. Tulane (6-5) has won four of their last five games after their 35-21 win over Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite on December 5th. This game is played on Boise State’s neutral blue field in Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Jay Norvell should have his team ready to play in this game as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after suffering an upset loss against a conference rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in these last three situations. Nevada has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against a loss to a Mountain West foe. Additionally, the Wolf Pack is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Nevada is led by sophomore quarterback Carson Strong who is completing 69.4% of his passes for 2587 yards. The Wolf Pack did surrender 506 yards against the Spartans in their last game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Norvell’s teams usually play well in situations like this. Nevada has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in December. Additionally, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when they are an underdog on a neutral field. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. The Green Wave have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against an American Athletic Conference opponent. Head coach Willie Fritz had to deal with instability in his coaching staff on both sides of the ball in preparation for this game. Offensive coordinator Will Hall left the program to take the head coaching gig at Southern Miss. Fritz dismissed defensive coordinator Jeff Curtis after the Memphis game. Tulane is also dealing with attrition on their defensive line with defensive tackles De’Andre Williams and Jeffery Johnson out for this game with injuries while Cameron Sample is questionable. The Green Wave registered 36 sacks this season but 10 of them were from another five came from Sample — and Williams is the straw that stirs the drink in the middle. Despite their winning record, Tulane was outgained by -23.1 net YPG. And in their six games away from Orleans on the road, the Green Wave were outgained by -92.5 net YPG. The Tulane pass rush has been their only salvation from a porous pass defense that ranks 115th in the nation by allowing 279.5 passing YPG. And this deficiency plays right into the hands of Nevada who rank 9th in the nation by averaging 325.1 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Nevada lost a close game to Ohio in last year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 30-21 score — so not only is this team familiar with the blue field in Boise but they have the opportunity to redeem themselves from that loss. The Wolf Pack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. Tulane has won their last two bowl games under Fritz so the urgency of this opportunity may not be as great. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potato Bowl ESPN Special with the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (369) and the Cincinnati Bengals (370). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog. Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch after managing only 224 yards last week against the Bills. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have not rushed for more than 68 yards in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Steelers have also played 25 of their last 30 road games Under the Total when favored. Cincinnati has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Bengals are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Yet he is averaging only 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt and completing just 48.1% of his passes. He takes over an offense that has not scored more than 17 points in five straight games while averaging just 10.3 PPG along with 220.0 total YPG in their last three contests. Finley is going to struggle against the Steel Curtain defense that is allowing only 18.2 PPG along with 303.1 total YPG this season. The Bengals have seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a double-digit dog.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati is looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 21 points. The Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters in Cincinnati Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (369) and the Cincinnati Bengals (370). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good opportunity to offer the reminder that we don’t bet on teams — we bet on point spreads. The Steelers are in no position to be a favorite of around two touchdowns to anybody right now. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while these problems on offense has contributed to them playing four straight Unders, Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing four straight Unders. Furthermore, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games in December, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Cincinnati should play well after their embarrassing effort at home. Not only have the Bengals covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Cincinnati has been pretty sneaky good at home this season before laying an egg against the Cowboys in that Andy Dalton revenge game. The Bengals have a 2-point loss to New England and a 3-point loss to Cleveland at home — and their two wins against Tennessee and Tennessee were at home. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Finley cannot be much worse than Allen as the Bengals have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 17 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). THE SITUATION: North Texas (4-5) became bowl eligible in this unusual COVID-ridden season with their 45-43 win at UTEP in their last regular-season game on December 11th as a 10-point favorite. Appalachian State (8-3) enters this game coming off a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern as an 8.5-point favorite on December 12th. The inaugural Myrtle Beach Bowl will be played at the home of Coastal Carolina at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State will likely be flat in this less than prestigious bowl game in this bizarre season. As it is, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while Appalachian State has only covered the point spread once in their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Additionally, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. North Texas has not covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Mean Green have allowed their last three opponents to score at least 42 points, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 42 points in three straight games. North Texas should be able to score points — they are averaging 35.1 PPG along with 515.0 total YPG this season. Head coach Seth Littrell has been rotating quarterbacks this season between sophomores Austin Aune and Jason Bean — but with Aune declared out for this game, Bean should get the majority of snaps and a game-plan tailored to his skill set. This will be Bean’s sixth straight start — he is completing only 52.4% of his passes but he averages 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt with 12 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Bean is the more mobile of the two QBs as well — he has rushed for 336 yards this season. He will be without his best weapon in wide receiver Jaelon Darden who leads the nation with 19 touchdowns but the Mean Green have other options at the position that will get an opportunity. Appalachian State is the type of team that North Texas has success against. The Mountaineers average 23.5 first downs per game while being on offense for 32:40 minutes per game. The Mean Green has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense while tallying at least 21 first downs per game.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has won five straight bowl games but this will be the first one with veteran offensive line coach Shawn Clark will be the head coach in his first year with the program. North Texas has played in a bowl game in four of the last five seasons — but they missed out last year after losing to Utah State in the New Mexico Bowl in 2018. Littrell is on the hot seat in Denton in his fifth year with the program — he needs to end the year on a good note. I am not predicting an upset here — but I am very confident that this North Texas team is taking this game very seriously. Getting 21 or so points is too many to pass up. 10* CFB Myrtle Beach Bowl ESPN Special with the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (362) and the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog. New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight games Under the Total. The Giants have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. And while New York allowed 231 rushing yards in that game, they have then played 38 of their last 56 games Over the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants only rushed for 78 yards in that game after topping 100 rushing yards in their previous seven straight games. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be the starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. New York has also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in December. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Browns gained 493 yards against the Ravens, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Cleveland has scored at least 40 points in two straight games — but they have given up 107 combined points in their last three games. The Browns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. With both these teams facing playoff implications for this game, expect the scoring to push the combined number above the number. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (362) and the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has plenty to play for in this game with a victory giving them a tie for first place in the NFC East after Washington lost to Seattle this afternoon. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants managed only 159 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. The New York defense has been the catalyst to their improved play. They have held their last three opponents to jut 18.3 PPG along with 290.7 total YPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Cleveland is vulnerable to being satisfied with their competitive loss to the Ravens on Monday — this is a group that too often makes their own announcement as to just how good they are. Yet the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are just 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Despite their 9-4 record, the Browns are being outscored by -1.5 PPG. They go on the road where they are being outgained by -24.2 net YPG while being outscored by -6.9 PPG despite their 4-2 record. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Cleveland may win this game — but this should be a close game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-3) looks to rebound from their 24-21 upset loss at Philadelphia last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (12-1) looks to build off their 33-27 win at Miami last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should respond with a big effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss —and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less on the road. The Saints’ defense surrendered 413 yards against the Eagles but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gained 358 yards behind Taysom Hill at quarterback, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards. New Orleans does not play at home often as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Drew Brees returns under center for this team in this game but he will not have Michael Thomas who will not play because of an injury until the playoffs. The Saints’ defense should play better in this one. They are holding their opponents to just 20.4 PPG along with 298.3 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with 285.7 total YPG. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win where they did not cover the point spread. The Chiefs are getting comfortable living dangerously with five straight victories by six points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games by six points or fewer. And while Kansas City is getting used to their offense bailing them out by averaging 479.3 total YGP, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG in three straight contests. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range including four of these last five situations. 10* NFL Kansas City-New Orleans CBS-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (357) and the Minnesota Vikings (358). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog. Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce-back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have found a spark with Mitchell Trubisky back as their starting quarterback. He completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Texans last week. He also rushed for 23 yards on four carries with the reckless abandon of someone who has nothing to lose. Chicago generated 410 yards in that game while averaging 7.32 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Bears are scoring 30.3 PPG over their last three games with a retooled offensive line. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points at home. And while the defense played well last week, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They go back on the road for this one where they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Minnesota is just 3-4 at home this season — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total. The Vikings have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Their loss to the Buccaneers finished 12 points below the 52 point total — and Minnesota has also played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Vikings return home where they are scoring 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG — but they are also allowing 30.9 PPG along with 427.0 total YPG. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home. They also have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC North — and Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (357) and the Minnesota Vikings (358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog. Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when placed in the bounce-back mode as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Minnesota did get 162 rushing yards last week with Delvin Cook leading the way which is a good sign for this game as they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home for the last time for this game where they are scoring a healthy 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range including covering the spread in five of these last six situations. Chicago enjoyed a transcendent game from Mitchell Trubisky who completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. But look for the Bears to take a step back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Bears dominated the Texans by outgaining them by +153 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. That game was the first time that Chicago had met point spread expectations in their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. They go back on the road where they are being outscored by -3.7 net PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC North foes — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. Chicago will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing at home to Minnesota by a 19-13 score as a 3-point underdog — but the home team has still covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). THE SITUATION: Florida (8-2) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at home to LSU last Saturday as a 24-point underdog. Alabama (10-0) completed their undefeated regular season last week with their 52-3 win at Arkansas as a 28-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for this Florida team to play one of their best games of the season after getting embarrassed last week in a game that ruined their college football playoff aspirations. The Tigers were extremely fortunate to win that when considering that they were outlined by -291 net yards. The win probability metrics given the underlying stats are quite low for LSU after that game — and they needed that personal foul penalty resulting from a thrown shoe after a Florida defensive stop to keep their winning drive alive that culminated in a 57-yard field goal. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a double-digit favorite. Florida has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on the road after a loss by a touchdown or less to a conference opponent. The Gators were without tight end Kyle Pitts in that game but he is expected to play and is the most dangerous target in their passing game. I am not sure that Florida can slow down the Alabama offense — although they have held their last three opponents to only 22.0 PPG and 324.3 total YPG. But Florida should be able to keep this game competitive due to their explosive offense behind quarterback Kyle Trask. The Gators racked up a whopping 609 yards last week against LSU. They are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 513.5 total YPG. Florida has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Trask is completing 70.2% of his passes for 3717 yards with 40 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. Alabama is playing their third straight game away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Alabama offense appears unstoppable — but the Razorbacks did a decent job of holding them to 433 yards last week which is over 100 yards below their season average. One of their touchdowns came from an 84-yard punt return for a touchdown. And while the Tide has scored at least 42 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 42 points in at least four games in a row. Alabama forced four Arkansas turnovers last week for a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 45 games after forcing at least four turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite in the 14.5 to 17 point range. Too many points to pass up for a team that will likely put up a big number on the scoreboard tonight. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Year with the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). THE SITUATION: Denver (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 32-27 upset victory at Carolina as a 4-point underdog. Buffalo (10-3) comes off a high-profile victory last Sunday night against Pittsburgh by a 26-13 score as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills doubled-up the Steelers score last week despite gaining only 334 yards of offense. But this Buffalo team may be due for an emotional letdown now facing a 5-8 Broncos team on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after winning at least four of their last five games — including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last six circumstances. Buffalo has won ten of their thirteen games despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.6 net YPG. And while they are 4-2 in their six games on the road, they have a flat net PPG margin of 0.0 in those contests. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Buffalo is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their passes, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of his passes. Drew Lock comes off his best game in the NFL last week as he completed 21 of his 27 passes of 280 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He led an offense that generated 365 yards — and Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Broncos have lost four of their last six games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Denver has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight contests. The Broncos have suffered some key injuries on defense this season — but they have still held their guests to just 336.0 YPG when playing at home. This Denver is dealing with some significant injuries (and one suspension) — and they are particularly thin at cornerback for this game. That is certainly not ideal — but head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive coach who is as good as it gets in finding solutions. Remember, we are not betting teams, we are betting point spreads that take into account injuries before the market gets involved. The good news is that Denver does expect to have their vastly improved left tackle Grant Bolles as well as tight end Noah Fant available for this game (and I am not too worried about them not having their top place kicker, Brandon McManus, either — they have been working with a backup kicker after their quarterback debacle that left them without options a few weeks ago).

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Look for the Broncos to keep this game close as they embrace the role of the spoiler without any pressure in this game. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (5-0) takes the field again after remaining unbeaten this season two weeks ago with their 52-12 victory against Michigan State as a 21.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) comes off a 28-10 win over Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I am not a believer in the Wildcats. Their 6-1 start is impressive — but I suspect this is a team we would have made money on when fading them in their late Big Ten conference games after a start like this. Instead, with the COVID-shortened season, they show up in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. Maybe head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team makes it to this game under normal circumstances — but that is a testament to the weakness of the Big Ten West where Northwestern compiled their impressive stats in this shortened season. The only team that the Wildcats have played from the Big Ten East was a bad Michigan State team — and somehow Sparty scored 29 points against this supposed elite defense! Nebraska tallied 442 total yards against this Wildcats’ defense as well. I suspect Ohio State is going to expose this unit. And Northwestern simply does not have the talent on offense to reach 30 points the way Indiana did against the Buckeyes to keep things relatively close. Their quarterback Patrick Ramsey transferred away from the Hoosiers because he was losing his job to Michael Penix, Jr. who is a dynamic dual-threat. Ramsey is a classic drop-back passer who lacks mobility. And while he has passed for 1218 yards, he is averaging only 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with only nine touchdown passes and six interceptions in his seven starts. Northwestern scored only 22.7 PPG in their last three contests — and they average just 283.3 total YPG in their three games away from Evanston. Those are all ominous numbers for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. They are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Wildcats did not force a turnover last week against the Illini — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. And while they rushed for 411 yards last week while tapping into their younger running backs on their depth chart like freshman Cam Porter, they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ohio State’s defense has another level of athlete than what Illinois had to offer. The Buckeyes’ have been adjusting to life without Chase Young — but they still rank second in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt. They are also holding opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game after holding Sparty to just 261 yards. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by quarterback Justin Fields, the Buckeyes are an offensive juggernaut who is scoring 46.6 PPG while averaging 532.4 total YPG. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. Ohio State usually saves a few tricks for their rivalry game with Michigan that they still have yet to unveil since that game was canceled. And the Buckeyes need style points to ensure they are one of the four teams in the playoff. Expect a blowout where head coach Ryan Day never has his team take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (7-2) has won six straight games after their 27-14 win over Baylor two weeks ago on December 5th as a 23-point favorite. Iowa State (8-2) has won five straight games with their 42-6 win against West Virginia as a 6-point favorite two weeks ago. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma lost two of their first three games this season — including a 37-30 setback to the Cyclones on October 3rd as a 7.5-point favorite. There are three reasons why I am willing to give the Sooners a pass for that slow start. First, COVID has been a challenge for everyone — and it has had a disproportionate effect on many football programs. I think it particularly hit many outstanding football coaches who rely on their abilities to coach up talent — and being robbed of teaching time played a toll. Second, I think it is underappreciated how much some coaches nurture improvement from their players as the season goes on. If (and when) the College Football Playoff expands beyond four teams to allow for teams with more than one loss, we will likely witness more teams make deep postseason runs benefited from the improvement that comes from great coaching. We see this all the time in college basketball. Third, this Sooners team added two key players in the sixth game of the season in running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins who were both suspended for the first three games. Perkins has tallied four sacks in four games with a pressure rate per pass rush of 16% (for comparison's sake, Chase Young had an 18% clip last year with Ohio State). Stevenson has rushed for 557 yards in four games with six touchdowns and a 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. These two players are difference-makers who did not play in the first meeting between these two teams. Oklahoma should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. Iowa State is just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least four games in a row. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Iowa State outgained the Mountaineers by a 483 to 264 yardage margin, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game. The Cyclones hosted the first encounter between these two teams in Ames — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State lost to the Oklahoma State team that got easily defeated against this Sooners team a month later by a 41-13 score in mid-November. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Iowa State ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (3-2) has lost two straight games entering this game after their 21-17 upset loss at California as a 9-point favorite on December 5th. USC (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 43-38 win at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon was placed into this game on Monday when the COVID outbreak in the Washington program forced them to pull out of that game. The Ducks thought they were going to be given the chance to earn the opportunity to play in this game with a showdown with the Huskies their scheduled game last week — but that game was canceled given the COVID issues in the Washington program. That game offered Oregon the chance to redeem themselves from suffering two straight upset losses at Oregon State and then at California two weeks ago. While the circumstances are less than ideal, this game does offer the Ducks the opportunity to salvage their season. Expectations were high for this group with 12 starters back from the team that finished 12-2 after winning both the Pac-12 Championship Game and then the Rose Bowl with a victory against Wisconsin. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. And while the Ducks have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Oregon outgained the Golden Bears in their last game by +97 net yards but red zone problems and a -2 net turnover margin held the Ducks back. Regression was expected for this team in the turnover department this season after they enjoyed a +16 net turnover margin last year. However, the Regression Gods may have overcorrected with Oregon ranking 123rd in the nation with a -1.40 net turnover margin per game. The Ducks are averaging 34.2 PPG which is 27th in the FBS — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 road games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games on the road as an underdog of 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 48 of their last 72 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. USC was very fortunate to escape last week’s game with a victory as they were outgained by UCLA by -105 net yards. Over their last three games, the Trojans are being beaten in the yardage battle by -19.6 net YPG. The Bruins exposed a soft USC defense last week by amassing 549 total yards. The Trojans generated 364 of those yards allowed were in the air — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. Sophomore Kedon Slovis did complete 30 of 47 passes for 344 yards last week but the Trojans are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games in December, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Trojans have been benefited from a +7 net turnover margin this season — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone tonight with some bounces that go the Ducks' way.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon will have plenty of confidence in this game as they crushed USC last season by a 56-24 score on the Trojans’ home field with a packed stadium. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with USC. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but (always!) take the insurance with the points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ball State (5-1) has won five games in a row with their 30-27 upset win over Western Michigan last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Buffalo (5-0) remained unbeaten this season last week with their 56-7 win over Akron as a 33-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State will have plenty of momentum and confidence entering this game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by 3 points or less. Additionally, Ball State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. This is a team that returned 14 starters from a group that finished 4-4 in MAC play last year despite outgaining their opponents by +31 net YPG. Six of their returning players were all-conference. They have a dynamic quarterback back in senior Drew Plitt who leads a passing attack that is 23rd in the nation Passing Success Rate and 24th in the nation with an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He leads an offense that scores 34.3 PPG while averaging 481.3 YPG in their three road games. The Cardinals did give up 491 yards last week but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Ball State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last game by at least 28 points. And while the Bulls raced out to a 35-0 halftime lead last week against the Zips, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 24 points in their last game. Buffalo dominated Akron with a +302 net yardage edge — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Bulls’ numbers are a bit skewed by playing only five games with two of them against the woeful Akron and Bowling Green teams. They have played only one game against a team in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top 100 in SP+ offense — and that Kent State team scored 41 points against them. The Buffalo defense ranks 75th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt and 83rd in the nation in Explosive Plays allowed. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 straight games between these two teams. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (2-5) looks to bounce back from their 24-17 upset loss at home to Minnesota last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. Rutgers (3-5) looks to build off their 27-24 upset win in overtime at Maryland last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. This Cornhuskers’ offense averages only 22.4 PPG. They managed just 308 total yards against a Golden Gophers’ defense that has struggled this season. Their defense has played better as the season has moved on — they have held their last three opponents to just 25.7 PPG along with 347.0 total YPG which are much better numbers than the 30.6 PPG and 405.7 total YPG they have allowed for the season. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total as a favorite. Rutgers has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home after an upset win as an underdog. The Scarlet Knights have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Rutgers rushed for 224 yards last week in the victory — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. And while the Cornhuskers surrendered 206 yards on the ground last week, Nebraska has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Scarlet Knights have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in New Jersey tonight with the temperatures starting in the low-30s. Expect a quick game tonight with plenty of rushing plays. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year within the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UAB (5-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 21-16 win over Rice as a 7-point favorite. Marshall (7-1) was embarrassed the previous week against that same Owls team on December 5th in a 20-0 upset loss as a 24.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a win against a conference rival. And while the Blazers have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They are also 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. And while that game finished Under the 42 point total, UAB has then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. This team has played only once since Halloween — but this time off afforded them to get healthy again. Junior quarterback Tyler Johnston returned last week in that game against the Owls. The Blazers did lose senior wide receiver Austin Watkins who decided to opt-out the rest of the season. But UAB has depth at wide receiver and two pass-receiving tight ends to pick up the slack. This is a veteran team that has played in the Conference USA Championship Game in two straight seasons — and eighteen starters returned in the fall from the group that lost to Florida Atlantic last year. This team was just a couple of good bounces away from being 7-1 entering this game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in expected low-scoring games with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. What happened to Marshall two weeks ago in their shocking shutout loss? For starters, their redshirt freshman quarterback, Grant Wells, threw five interceptions. This team has also been hit with injuries, particularly on their offensive line. This team may have peaked too soon for 11th-year head coach Doc Holliday. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. And while that game flew Under the 42 point total, Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Thundering Herd do get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Coming off a shutout loss, a big Marshall bounce-back is certainly possible. This is why I look closely at team trends in an attempt to ascertain if there is a team personality or culture under a head coach that helps assess how a group will respond to specific circumstances. We have plenty of data to assess Holiday’s teams at Marshall. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UAB-Marshall CBS Sports Network Special with the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196). Best of luck for us — Frank.