At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303) in Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UTSA (11-1) comes off their first loss of the season last week in a 45-23 upset loss at North Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won seven straight games after their 53-21 win at Marshall as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA had little at stake last week after clinching the opportunity to host this conference championship game the previous week with a 34-31 victory against UAB. While a perfect record would be nice for head coach Jeff Traylor, the most important goals are winning the first conference championship in program history and then winning the first bowl game in conference history. After committing some early turnovers in bad weather in Denton last week, Traylor pulled his starters with the writing on the wall for that game (against a Mean Green team motivated to become bowl eligible) to rest for this showdown. UTSA should respond with a strong effort. The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. UTSA has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss to a conference rival. Now the Roadrunners return home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.2 net Points-Per-Game. They outgain their visitors by +162.0 net Yards-Per-Game because of their defense that holds these guests to just 13.0 PPG and 239.5 total YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Roadrunners bring a balanced offense into this game led by quarterback Frank Harris and running back Sincere Mitchell. Harris is a dual-threat who is completing 66.3% of his passes — and he has 23 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. McCormick has rushed for more than 1000 yards in two straight seasons. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road in conference play. With their new Air Raid offense this season led by quarterback Bailey Zappe, the Hilltoppers are second in the nation by scoring 43.2 PPG. But UTSA has seen this offense already in their 52-46 victory at Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on October 9th. The Hilltoppers’ defense is a concern as they are tied for 87th in the nation by allowing 407.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Their ability to stop the pass is the biggest concern as they rank 113th in the nation by allowing 261.9 passing YPG. Harris completed 28 of 38 passes for 349 yards with six touchdown passes in the first meeting. Western Kentucky is surviving high-scoring games with their last four contests seeing at least 63 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is the trendy pick in this game because of the revenge angle and that they have lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and UTSA has won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But don’t underestimate the confidence of an older team in their ability to win close games — especially when they are playing at home (and at night). The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (301) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (302). THE SITUATION: Dallas (7-4) has lost two straight games and three of their last four after a 36-33 upset loss at home to Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. New Orleans (5-6) has lost three in a row after their 31-6 loss to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The injury update for the Saints this morning was not good. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his fourth straight game — he is the team’s best weapon on offense. New Orleans will also be without their bookend tackles with Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk out again this week with knee injuries. It is not just that the Saints are missing starting tackles, it is that Armstead and Ramczyk are two of the best offensive linemen in football. These absences simply cripple this offense that is already without top wide receiver Michael Thomas and starting quarterback Jameis Winston. But it is not just the offense that is missing key players. Their best pass rusher, Marcus Davenport, is out once again with a shoulder. New Orleans is also without defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon and linebacker Kaden Ellis. This is just too much for head coach Sean Payton to overcome in what was already a rebuilding season. Taysom Hill gets the start at quarterback — but he was unable to win the job in the preseason over Jameis Winston. Hill has thrown only eight passes with 20 rushing attempts this season. If he was such a dangerous threat as a dual-threat, he would be averaging more than 4.5 touches of the football per game (when healthy). Who is he going to throw to? And it is not as if Hill is the only mobile quarterback in the league. Having to defend running quarterbacks is standard fare in the NFL. New Orleans is scoring only 18.7 PPG and averaging 295.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. They have allowed 31 PPG in their last four games — and they have surrendered 167.5 rushing YPG in their last two games. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a double-digit loss at home. They are 1-3 at home this season where they have failed to cover the point spread 3 times. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Dallas is getting healthier with wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb expected back on the field and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence healthy again. The Cowboys need a win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points. Dak Prescott played much better last week after looking rusty two weeks ago. He completed 32 of 47 passes for 375 yards with two touchdown passes despite not having Cooper and Lamb as targets. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 509 yards to the Raiders with 366 coming in the air, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after allowing at least 350 passing yards. Dallas goes back on the road where they are 3-2 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored by up to seven points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Dallas-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (301) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (301) and the New Orleans Saints (302). THE SITUATION: Dallas (7-4) has lost two straight games and three of their last four after a 36-33 upset loss at home to Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. New Orleans (5-6) has lost three in a row after their 31-6 loss to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dak Prescott played much better last week after looking rusty two weeks ago. He completed 32 of 47 passes for 375 yards with two touchdown passes despite not having Cooper and Lamb as targets. But the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 509 yards to the Raiders with 366 coming in the air, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. Dallas has still only allowed 19.3 PPG in their last three contests. The Cowboys go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a favorite. New Orleans has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. The injury update for the Saints this morning was not good. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his fourth straight game — he is the team’s best weapon on offense. New Orleans will also be without their bookend tackles with Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk out again this week with knee injuries. It is not just that the Saints are missing starting tackles, it is that Armstead and Ramczyk are two of the best offensive linemen in football. These absences simply cripple this offense that is already without top wide receiver Michael Thomas and starting quarterback Jameis Winston. But it is not just the offense that is missing key players as they are missing some of their best players on defense. New Orleans allowed 361 yards to the Bills last week — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Taysom Hill gets the start at quarterback — but he was unable to win the job in the preseason over Jameis Winston. Hill has thrown only eight passes with 20 rushing attempts this season. If he was such a dangerous threat as a dual-threat, he would be averaging more than 4.5 touches of the football per game (when healthy). Who is he going to throw to? And it is not as if Hill is the only mobile quarterback in the league. Having to defend running quarterbacks is standard fare in the NFL. New Orleans is scoring only 18.7 PPG and averaging 295.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 9-1-1 in the Saints’ last 11 games when playing on a Thursday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (301) and the New Orleans Saints (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-7) lost their fifth game in their last six after their 23-13 upset loss to Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (4-6) pulled off their second straight upset victory with their 27-21 win at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS: This is a fishy line at first glance. The Football team has just upset Tampa Bay and Carolina — and now they host a reeling Seahawks team but they are not favorite? This is a “gotta have it” game for Seattle — and they have been pretty reliable in these situations under head coach Pete Carroll who has overseen this franchise with the most active consecutive winning seasons in the NFL. Bill Belichick does not hold that distinction. Nor does Mike Tomlin or Andy Reid or Sean Payton. It’s Pete Carroll. Seattle is 36-16-4 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up win. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a NFC West opponent. Furthermore, Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled in his two games since returning, perhaps prematurely, from his finger injury. He did play better last week against the Cardinals than he did in his first game back against Green Bay in a shutout loss. In hindsight, those were two tough assignments against the stout Packers and Cardinals defenses. And the Seahawks only had the ball for 19:38 minutes in the game. In his third week back, I do expect Wilson to look closer to his old self. Seattle has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. The Seahawks go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Seattle’s defense has steadily improved this season — they have held their last three opponents to 15.7 PPG. Washington controlled time of possession against the Panthers in their six-point victory — they were on offense for 35:53 minutes. The Football Team rushed for 190 yards in the win — but they have failed to cover the point spread 19 of their last 25 home games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. Washington allowed only 297 yards to Carolina but they did give up 6.2 Yards-Per-Play. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 6.2 YPP in their last game. Washington returns home where they are 2-3 while allowing 26.7 PPG and 391.2 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on Monday Night Football. Wilson has led the Seahawks to victory in ten of his twelve starts on Monday Night Football — and Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (273) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Washington Football Team (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-7) lost their fifth game in their last six after their 23-13 upset loss to Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (4-6) pulled off their second straight upset victory with their 27-21 win at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up loss. Seattle has also played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. The Seahawks have only scored 13 points in their two games since Russell Wilson returned to action from his finger injury. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Seattle is playing better on defense — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Now Seattle goes on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They held the Panthers to just 297 total yards last week by controlling the time of possession as they were on offense for 35:53 minutes of that game. The Football Team rushed for 190 yards in that game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Washington returns home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Football Team has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Seahawks have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Washington Football Team (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (271) and the Baltimore Ravens (272). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-5) has won two of their last three games after a 13-10 win at home against Detroit as a 14-point favorite last week. Baltimore (7-3) has also won two of their last three games with their 16-13 win at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland has played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Browns held the Lions to just 245 total yards last week, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Cleveland limited Detroit to only 77 passing yards in that game — and they have then played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. But the Lions did rush for 168 yards against them — and the Browns have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their last game. Baker Mayfield is in a funk as of late — he completed 15 of 29 passes for just 176 yards against the Lions' defense while throwing two interceptions last week. Mayfield does not appear to be liberated in the Cleveland offense after the dismissal of Odell Beckham. The Browns are scoring only 20.3 PPG with just a 309.0 total YPG mark in their last three games. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Ravens have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Baltimore did allow the Bears to gain 353 total yards last week — but they have then played thirteen of their last nineteen games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens have still held their last three opponents to just 22.0 PPG and 240.3 total YPG. Baltimore has failed to score more than 17 points in three of their last four games. Lamar Jackson is expected to play tonight (he claimed to be “120%” confident he will play) after missing last week because of a non-COVID illness. But the Ravens have yet to demonstrate they have the full fix to the eight-man front that Miami deployed against them in their loss on Thursday Night Football that took away Jackson’s rushing lanes and forced him to pass. Baltimore scored only 10 points with 304 total yards against the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings in Baltimore Under the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (271) and the Baltimore Ravens (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-5) has won two of their last three games after a 13-10 win at home against Detroit as a 14-point favorite last week. Baltimore (7-3) has also won two of their last three games with their 16-13 win at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has not looked very good in the last two weeks. They were flat against the winless Lions last week despite wanting to make a statement after their embarrassing 45-7 loss in New England the prior week. But injuries have played a role in the Browns’ subpar play — and they are getting healthy again. Nick Chubb returned to action last week to run the ball 22 times for 130 yards. Now both All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin and running back Kareem Hunt are expected to play tonight. Cleveland is a different team when their potent ground game is at full strength. The Browns have scored 41 or more points twice this season. They should raise their level of play in this AFC North showdown as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Cleveland held the Lions to only 245 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Baker Mayfield has been in a funk — but he loves playing against the Ravens. In his six career starts against Baltimore, Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards four times — and he has averaged 297 passing YPG in those six games. The rushing attack of the Browns travels — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. And while Baltimore gave up 353 yards to Bears’ defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens return home after a two-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens have failed to score more than 17 points in three of their last four games. Lamar Jackson is expected to play tonight (he claimed to be “120%” confident he will play) after missing last week because of a non-COVID illness. But the Ravens have yet to demonstrate they have the full fix to the eight-man front that Miami deployed against them in their loss on Thursday Night Football that took away Jackson’s rushing lanes and forced him to pass. Baltimore scored only 10 points with 304 total yards against the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-31 upset loss at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (7-3) looks to rebound from a 31-10 upset loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite back on November 15th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has been very reliable in bounce-back situations coming off a loss. Since 2019, the Packers are 7-0 off a loss while averaging 30.0 Points-Per-Game and topping the 31-point threshold five times. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. The Packers should play better on defense after allowing the Vikings to generate 408 yards of offense. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after giving up at least 30 points in their last contest. The Packers did gain 467 yards against the Minnesota defense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after gaining at least 350 yards. Green Bay has their ground game cranking behind A.J. Dillon who will have an elevated role this afternoon given the injury to Aaron Jones. The Packers are averaging 118 rushing YPG in their last four contests. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +15.0 PPG. Green Bay holds their guests to 11.0 PPG and 316.0 total YPG. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has an 18-2 record straight-up at home in his last 20 starts which makes the Pack a surprising underdog in this one. The Packers have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Part of the brilliance of Rodgers is that he is so careful with the football. He has thrown only one interception in his last 198 pass attempts (knock on wood …). Los Angeles may lead the NFL in Yards-Per-Play — but their only victory against a team with a winning record is Tampa Bay. The Rams have lost two in a row which halted a four-game winning streak — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning four or five of their last six games. I think “offensive genius” Sean McVay has become too enamored with the dopamine hit he receives when Matthew Stafford connects on a long pass. In his jouissance of no longer having to manage the play of Jared Goff, McVay has abandoned the play-action rushing attack that made the offense so effective in propelling the Rams’ Super Bowl run. The Rams only rushed for 52 yards against the 49ers — and they have failed to generate more than 94 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. I also think that McVay has overrated the talents of Stafford. I like Stafford — and I think he has incredible natural ability. His decision-making was sometimes questionable with Detroit — and he certainly lacks big-time playoff experience even going back to his days with Georgia. I think he got lulled into forcing the football to Calvin Johnson when those two stars were paired together — and I think he matured as a quarterback and as a leader after Johnson’s premature retirement. The addition of Odell Beckham worries me because it may play into McVay’s dopamine addiction for the long ball and because Stafford may succumb to the pressure to get him the football rather than taking what the defense offers him. Maybe the Rams are the organization where Beckham will stop being failed by everyone around him — or perhaps Beckham is part of the problem. Granted, they need him now after the season-ending injury to Robert Woods. Stafford’s four interceptions in his last two starts are as many as he had in his first eight starts with his new team. He has also been sacked seven times in the last two games. These mistakes have helped their opponents score 17 and 21 points in the first half in the last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Maybe McVay fixed these problems during the bye week — but the Rams are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored — and Green Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Packers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (264). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4-1) looks to rebound from a 41-37 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (6-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Pittsburgh defense was hit hard with injuries last week but head coach Mike Tomlin expects T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick to be back for this game (but cornerback Joe Haden appears doubtful to play). Fitzpatrick is an outstanding safety — but getting Watt back on the field is a game-changer. The Steelers are 0-4 without Watt this season — and he loves playing against the Bengals. Pittsburgh has a 7-1 record with Watt against Cincinnati — and he has eight sacks, 12 quarterback hits, eight more tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles in those contests. The encouraging aspect of the Steelers' loss last week was the offense scoring 37 points. Ben Roethlisberger completed 28 of 44 passes for 273 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the loss in his return to action after being out with COVID. In his last five starts, Roethlisberger has nine touchdown passes — and he is the only quarterback in the league without an interception during that span. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Steelers are a reliable road team under Tomlin. They are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games. Pittsburgh is also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games as an underdog. Cincinnati only gained 288 total yards in their victory against the Raiders last week despite controlling the clock for 37:20 minutes in that game. They averaged a mere 4.2 Yards-Per-Play. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Cincinnati has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Joe Mixon led the way for the Bengals last week as he spearheaded a ground game that generated 159 rushing yards — but Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they have a 2-2 record but they are getting outscored by -4.9 PPG and getting outgained by -17.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Cincinnati only scores 22.3 PPG at home. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 upset loss at home to Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite on September 26th. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge on their minds from a loss at home by at least 14 points. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). THE SITUATION: California (4-6) has won three of their last four games with their 41-11 victory at Stanford last week as a 2.5-point favorite. UCLA (7-4) has won two in a row with their 62-33 win at USC as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal is playing their best football of the season — and they should build off their momentum tonight. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Cal got their senior quarterback Chase Garbers back last week after he was injured for their previous game against Arizona when the team was hit hard by COVID in a 10-3 upset loss. The Bears had over 20 players out for that game with the Wildcats. Now with four wins and with their postponed game with USC on deck next week, bowl eligibility remains a real possibility. Garbers completed 17 of 26 passes for 246 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards on the ground. Garbers has posted a QBR of 82 or better in each of his last three starts with seven touchdown passes and one interception. Cal gained 636 yards in the win against the Cardinal — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Golden Bears gained 325 of those yards on the ground — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Cal’s defense has played better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG and 330.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Cal has been a very tough underdog over the years as they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 road games as a dog. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. UCLA comes off the rivalry game win against USC —  but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Bruins have won and covered the point spread as a favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 16 of 22 passes for 349 yards in the win last week — but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But the play of the defense has regressed as of late. In their last three games, UCLA has allowed 32.3 PPG and 437.3 total YPG. The Bruins rank just 112th in the nation in Opponent’s Rush Success Rate. UCLA hosts this game at home in the Rose Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Five of Cal’s six losses have been by one scoring possession. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. UCLA’s motivation for this game is questionable after their rivalry game and a bowl game clinched but with no chance of playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game next week. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (176) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (175). THE SITUATION: Virginia (6-5) has lost three straight games after their 48-38 loss at Pittsburgh as a 13-point underdog last week. Virginia Tech (5-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-26 loss at Miami (FL) as a 7-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia did get back quarterback Brennan Armstrong after he missed time with an injury. The southpaw completed 36 of 49 passes for 487 yards with three touchdown passes in the loss. The Cavaliers were only outgained by -4 yards to the Panthers by generating 504 total yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Virginia has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. And they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Armstrong threw an interception which accounted for the lone Cavaliers turnover — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. They return home where they are 4-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG — and they outgain their guests by +123.0 Yards-Per-Game. Virginia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Hokies committed only one turnover against the Hurricanes, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. This team is playing under interim head coach J.C. Price who took over after Justin Fuente was fired two weeks ago. Virginia Tech stays on the road where they are just 1-3 with an average losing margin of -5.8 PPG. They only score 19.0 PPG while averaging 317.5 total YPG on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia will be looking to avenge a 33-15 loss to the Hokies last season — so they will be very motivated to end their struggles against this team. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Virginia Cavaliers (176) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (175). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (226) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (225). THE SITUATION: Florida (5-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-23 upset loss at Missouri in overtime last Saturday. Florida State (5-6) has registered two straight upset victories after their 26-23 upset win at Boston College as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS THE POINTS: The streaking Seminoles upset Miami (FL) two weeks ago by a 31-28 score. But Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset win against an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a road underdog. They stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.5 PPG and getting outgained by -76.3 net YPG. The Seminoles defense gives up too many big plays — they rank 120th in Explosiveness Allowed. They give up 402.8 total YPG and 28.3 PPG in their four games on the road. They are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games — and they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games as an underdog. Florida plays their first game since Dan Mullen was fired as their head coach in just his second season with the team. It sure looks like many of the players stopped playing for him two weeks ago when they were getting trounced at home against Samford. The Gators rebounded in the second half to win that game by 18 points — but giving up 52 points to an FCS team is troubling. They had not allowed more than 31 points at home all season before that game — and that was in a 2-point loss to mighty Alabama. This remains one of the most talented teams in the nation who played the Crimson Tide tough earlier this year and in last year’s SEC Championship Game. A tough loss at LSU and then getting crushed against Georgia seems to have broken the team — and the players stopped responding to Mullen. Expect a spirited effort with Mullen now gone for interim head coach Greg Knox — it is the player’s way of communicating that he was the problem. Florida has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by seven points or less to a conference opponent. The Gators have only played one of their last six games at home — so getting back to the Swamp will help. They are 4-1 at home with an average winning margin of +20.6 net PPG and +155 net YPG marks. They score 42.8 PPG at home while generating 539.8 total YPG. With Emory Jones nursing an ankle injury, the talented Anthony Richardson gets the start at quarterback (which is fine). Florida has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Florida will be motivated to play on Senior Day with the opportunity to stick it to Mullen — and these players do not want the shame of not even becoming bowl eligible. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in games outside the ACC. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Florida Gators (226) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). THE SITUATION: Boston College (6-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 26-23 upset loss to Florida State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Wake Forest (9-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 48-27 loss at Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Boston College fell behind in the first half and went into the locker room with a 19-3 deficit before rallying to pull within three points with 10 minutes left to go in the game. But the Eagles could not score again to get upset by the Seminoles. That was the first loss for this team with a healthy Phil Jurkovec under center. Boston College is significantly better when he is leading the offense. Jurkovec averages 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game while generating 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry when rushing out of the backfield. The Eagles should bounce back this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after suffering an upset loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after by three points or less. Boston College gets to host this game in the cold weather where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Furthermore, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when getting up to 7 points as a home dog. The Boston College defense will play a big role in this showdown in slowing down the Demon Deacons’ quarterback Sam Hartman. The Eagles rank 26th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate — and they limit their opponents to just 6.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, ranking 33rd in the nation. Boston College holds their guests to just 19.2 PPG and 312.2 total YPG at home. Wake Forest has the pressure of needing to win this game to clinch their spot in the ACC Championship Game against Pittsburgh next week. While Hartman has led a powerful offense, it is the subpar play of the Demon Deacons’ defense that has exposed them against Clemson and North Carolina earlier this month. The Tigers rank just 117th in the nation in Pass Success Rate but were able to torch the Wake Forest defense for 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game and 543 total yards of offense. Clemson averaged 7.33 Yards-Per-Play last week — and the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Hartman tried to keep up as he completed 27 of 43 passes for 312 yards — but Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Hartman has been pressing with the defense being so easy to score on — he has six interceptions in his last three games. The Demon Deacons allow 30.8 PPG and 449.8 total YPG — and it is even worse away from home as they surrender 43.2 PPG and 540.8 total YPG in their five road games. Predictably, Wake Forest is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Demon Deacons are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Besides the opportunity to play the role of spoiler to Wake Forest’s ACC title chances, Boston College can avenge their 27-24 loss at home to the Demon Deacons on September 28th, 2019 in the last meeting between these two teams. Hartman quarterbacking in the cold Boston weather against an Eagles team that will score points may be too much to ask for the NFL prospect. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). THE SITUATION: Washington State (6-5) has won two of their last three games with their 44-19 win against Arizona as a 15-point favorite last Friday. Washington (4-7) has lost three in a row after a 20-17 upset loss as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This year’s version of the Apple Cup will feature two defensive coordinators serving as interim head coaches for programs working through a tumultuous season. Given some weather conditions that I will detail in the Final Take, I expect both teams to embrace a conservative defensive mentality in this rivalry game. Washington State has run the ball more since Jake Dickert was given the head coaching duties. In his four games, the Cougars had their first and third-highest rushing games in terms of attempts with 42 carries against Arizona State and 36 carries last week against the Wildcats — and this is despite them ranking 71st in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. As a defensive coach, Dickert appreciates the benefits running the ball does for his defense. They have held three of these four opponents to no more than 21 points after allowing 24 or more points in six of their first seven games. When now facing an outstanding Huskies secondary filled with future NFL players who rank fifth in the nation in Opposing Pass Success Rate and third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grading, Washington State will likely run the ball plenty tonight — and burn time off the clock limited offensive possessions along the way. The Cougars did gain 482 yards last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Washington State has also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cougars score only 23.0 PPG and average 355.3 total YPG on the road. Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by a touchdown or less against Pac-12 rivals. The Huskies held the Buffaloes to 183 yards in the loss last week. The Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Washington allows only 21.1 PPG and 325.9 total YPG on the season. But despite quarterback Dylan Morris passing for 387 yards, his two interceptions played a large role in their scoring just 17 points. The Huskies average just 1.4 Yards-Per-Carry. With this being the team’s final game, interim head coach Bob Gregory may give playing time to freshman QB Sam Huard. Either way, expect more long drives from an offense that ranks outside the top-115 in Standard Down Explosiveness, Rushing Explosiveness, and Passing Explosiveness. Washington is scoring only 21.0 PPG and averaging 286.0 total YPG in their last three games. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Huskies have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: There is a 50% chance for rain in Seattle for this game which will likely hurt the passing game for both teams. I suspect both defensive coaches will not take as many chances throwing the ball in the rain. And if you watched Washington play in Ann Arbor in the rain against Michigan earlier this year, you witnessed how ineffective Morris and their receivers were dealing with a wet football. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings at Washington Under the Total. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). THE SITUATION: East Carolina (7-4) has won four games in a row with their 38-35 win at Navy as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (11-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 48-14 victory against SMU as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats made a statement with their emphatic 34-point victory against a quality Mustangs team that entered that game with an 8-2 record. Cincinnati now finds themselves in the College Football Playoff top-four rankings this week — and they are locked into the American Athletic Conference Championship Game next week against Houston. Alas, the Bearcats walk into this emotional letdown and a look-ahead spot against the Pirates. Now road favorites still manage to cover all the time in these situations — so the issue becomes how vulnerable is Cincinnati in this spot and how dangerous of an underdog is East Carolina. On Issue One, the Bearcats are vulnerable to letdowns. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. And while they have gained at least 506 yards in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight contests. They held the Mustangs pass offense to just 66 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Bearcats have experienced scares from some middle-of-the-road conference opponents. They only beat Navy on the road by a touchdown. They defeated Tulsa at home by eight points. While they are scoring 40.0 PPG and averaging 429.7 total YPG, those numbers drop by a touchdown and more than 60 total YPG to 33.0 PPG and 368.4 total YPG marks when playing on the road. They also allow just under 26 more YPG away from home. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. On Issue Two, East Carolina does have the pedigree of a dangerous but under-appreciated opponent. After a 3-6 campaign last year, head coach Mike Houston had 20 starters return for what is likely his best roster in his three years with the program. They are playing their best football at this point of the season having outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 PPG and outgaining them by +208.5 net YPG. After opening the season with understandable losses at Appalachian State and home to South Carolina, they have pulled off three upset victories against Memphis, Marshall, and Tulane. They lost on the road to Houston in overtime. They enter this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They generated 563 yards against the Midshipmen last week while outgaining them by +181 net yards. The Pirates are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. Quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 27 of 32 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes in the win last week. He leads an offense scoring 37.7 PPG and generating 505.5 total YPG in their last three games. He can keep East Carolina competitive in this contest with his deep balls — he leads an offense that ranks 18th in the nation in Explosiveness. The Bearcats have played only two teams ranked in the top-25 in Offensive Explosiveness — and they rank 71st in the Pass Defense Explosiveness. The Pirates are 4-1 at home at Dowdy-Ficken Stadium where they outscore their opponents by +16.0 PPG. East Carolina has an underrated defense that holds their visitors to just 18.8 PPG -- and they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG and 297.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina had 21 first-time starters last season, the fifth-most in the nation. The fruits of that commitment to go young are coming into place now. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 conference games. Lastly, East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a dog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Yes, this is a dangerous team. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (109) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-15 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (5-5) lost their third straight game with their 40-29 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo should respond with a strong effort tonight as they are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The formula for success for head coach Sean McDermott tonight will likely be to play conservative, get a lead, and then don’t risk losing it. After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score three weeks ago, the Bills finally made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Brieda in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. But the Bills got away from that last week as they ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. The Bills have been outstanding on defense for most of the season — they should bounce-back after giving up 370 yards last week. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after surrendering at least 30 points in their last game. They are allowing just 17.6 PPG along with 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 16.0 PPG and 310.8 total YPG in their five road games. New Orleans only gained 323 yards last week in their loss at Philadelphia. The Saints’ offense is ravaged with injuries in their first year in the post-Drew Brees era. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game with a knee. Mark Ingram is questionable with his knee injury — and he was simply a rotation running back with Houston before being re-acquired by New Orleans midseason. Quarterback Jameis Winston is out the season with his torn ACL and Taysom Hill is not 100% with a foot injury that limits his mobility. The offensive line is banged up — and wide receiver unit lacks a true number one with Michael Thomas not playing this year. Quarterback Trevor Siemian was effective early coming on in relief in the Saints’ upset win against Tampa Bay — but he is winless in his three starts while regressing in his quality of play as opposing defenses build their book up against him. He completed only 22 of 40 passes for 214 yards with two interceptions last week. That 5.4 yards-per-attempt passing average he had against the Eagles is sub-standard. He is ineffective if placed into obvious passing downs when playing from behind. New Orleans. The Bills are 3-2 on the road this season — and the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in non-conference play. They should overwhelm a struggling and undermanned Saints’ team that head coach Sean Payton has been using mirrors to get by with this season. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (109) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-15 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (5-5) lost their third straight game with their 40-29 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Unders after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The formula for success for head coach Sean McDermott tonight will likely be to play conservative, get a lead, and then don’t risk losing it. After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score three weeks ago, the Bills finally made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Brieda in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. But the Bills got away from that last week as they ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. The Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Bills have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They are allowing just 17.6 PPG along with 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 16.0 PPG and 310.8 total YPG in their five road games. New Orleans only gained 323 yards last week in their loss at Philadelphia. The Saints’ offense is ravaged with injuries in their first year in the post-Drew Brees era. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game with a knee. Mark Ingram is questionable with his knee injury — and he was simply a rotation running back with Houston before being re-acquired by New Orleans midseason. Quarterback Jameis Winston is out the season with his torn ACL and Taysom Hill is not 100% with a foot injury that limits his mobility. The offensive line is banged up — and wide receiver unit lacks a true number one with Michael Thomas not playing this year. Quarterback Trevor Siemian was effective early coming on in relief in the Saints’ upset win against Tampa Bay — but he is winless in his three starts while regressing in his quality of play as opposing defenses build their book up against him. He completed only 22 of 40 passes for 214 yards with two interceptions last week. That 5.4 yards-per-attempt passing average he had against the Eagles is sub-standard. He is ineffective if placed into obvious passing downs when playing from behind. New Orleans returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Saints’ defense is allowing only 21.8 PPG — but they need to bounce-back after getting embarrassed by Philadelphia. They allowed 383 total yards to the Eagles with 242 of them coming on the ground last week. New Orleans has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards. Turnovers are hurting this team as they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games. That explains why the Saints have allowed 30.0 PPG in those three games despite only giving up 336.7 total YPG during that span. New Orleans has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing the turnover battle in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total played on a Thursday. Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5. to 49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-7) lost their fifth straight game with a 16-13 loss to Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (0-9-1) comes off a 13-10 loss at Cleveland as a 14-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. And in their last 24 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Justin Fields was knocked out of the Ravens game with a rib injury that will keep him out this afternoon. Andy Dalton will be under center for this game after completing less than 50% of his passes (11 of 23) against Baltimore. Chicago is scoring only 16.3 PPG and averaging 287.9 total Yards-Per-Game under offensive “guru” May Nagy — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG and 269.2 total YPG in their five games on the road. They have not scored more than 27 points all season while scoring 22 or fewer points in eight of their ten games and 20 points or less in seven of their games. The Bears did gain 353 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Chicago is they did hold Baltimore to only 299 total yards. They did not allow more than 17 points for the fourth time this season. Detroit has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least two in a row. The Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. It looks like it will be Jared Goff under center for this one with him being listed as questionable with the oblique injury that kept him out against the Browns. Backup quarterback Tim Boyle completed 15 of 23 passes but for only 77 yards with two interceptions against Cleveland in demonstrating that he is not as effective as even a limited Goff. Detroit is scoring only 16.0 PPG — and they score just 16.8 PPG at home while averaging 292.8 total YPG. The Lions have not topped 19 points in nine straight games — and they are averaging a mere 10.7 PPG and 259.7 total YPG in their last three contests. Detroit has scored 26 points in their last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. The Lions’ defense has played better lately by only allowing 29 combined points in their last two contests. They did allow 184 rushing yards to the Browns last week but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and Chicago has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Total is low for this one — but it simply would not be a shock if one (or both) of these teams failed to score double-digits especially after Nagy canceled team meetings on Tuesday amidst the rumors he was going to be fired after this game (although the Lions offense is not in better shape even with full meetings on Tuesday). 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (477) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New York (3-6) has won two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog back on November 7th. Tampa Bay (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 29-19 upset loss at Washington as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 54 games on the road after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. The Giants are likely undervalued right now — they have three losses to Washington, Atlanta, and Kansas City decided by a combined seven points. Injuries have hit this team hard but they hope to get left tackle Andrew Thomas and running back Saquon Barkley back on the field tonight. New York’s defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 314.7 total YPG. The Giants have been very consistent when playing on the road where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have suffered two straight upset losses after losing in New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite on October 31st. Tom Brady misses his security blankets in wide receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brown remains out tonight but Gronkowski could return to the field with his being listed as questionable — although how effective he will be with his sore back remains an issue. Tampa Bay gained only 273 yards against the Football Team. Maybe the Buccaneers can simply flip the switch and cover a double-digit spread tonight — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering two straight upset losses. Tampa Bay has not covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games. Tampa Bay misses Vita Tea on their defensive line who has been out with a knee injury. He is doubtful to play tonight. The Buccaneers' defense has allowed 122 rushing YPG in their last four games after holding their first five opponents to just 46 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in November. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (477) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New York (3-6) has won two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog back on November 7th. Tampa Bay (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 29-19 upset loss at Washington as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have suffered two straight upset losses after losing in New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite on October 31st. Tom Brady misses his security blankets in wide receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brown remains out tonight but Gronkowski could return to the field with his being listed as questionable — although how effective he will be with his sore back remains an issue. Tampa Bay gained only 273 yards against the Football Team. They were only on offense for 20:52 minutes. The Buccaneers only ran the ball 13 times for 53 yards — and they only had 14 rushes for 71 yards in their loss to the Saints. Look for Tampa Bay to get back to running the football. They had averaged 29.3 rushing attempts in their four games which were all victories. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay has also played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Running the ball will also help the Buccaneers defense that has allowed 122 rushing YPG in their last four games after holding their first five opponents to just 46 rushing YPG. Tampa Bay misses Vita Tea on their defensive line who has been out with a knee injury. He is doubtful to play tonight — but asking the defense to be on the field five to ten minutes less than they were last week will help. So will returning home help where the Buccaneers hold their guests to just 18.5 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Giants managed only 247 total yards in the win last week with Daniel Jones completing 15 of 20 passes but for only 110 yards. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. And while the Giants surrendered 403 yards to the Raiders, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. New York’s defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 314.7 total YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 straight games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against NFC foes. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-3-1) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 16-16 tie with Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Pittsburgh gained 387 yards against the Lions' defense last week, the Under is 37-14-2 in their last 53 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This will be just their fourth game on the road this season — and they are scoring just 18.3 PPG and averaging 301.3 total YPG in their three road games. The Under is a decisive 42-13-1 in the Steelers’ last 56 games on the road — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC foes — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in November. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Their loss to the Vikings fell below the 53.5 point Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Chargers stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 14-5-1 in their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 4 straight Unders when hosting the Steelers on their home field.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5. or higher. Pittsburgh has played 29 of their last 40 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 to 49.5. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (5-3-1) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 16-16 tie with Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: I consider the Steelers a bit overrated — and they are ravaged with injuries for this one. Big Ben Roethlisberger will play after being removed from the COVID list — but he has not practiced in a couple of weeks. Granted, Roethlisberger is not a gym rat — but I still expect him to be rusty after being in quarantine. Left guard Kevin Dotson is out with a foot injury. The Pittsburgh defense is without their three best players in linebacker T.J. Watt, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and cornerback Joe Haden. Those losses on defense are devastating. As it is, Pittsburgh is being outscored and outgained this season. They are getting outgained by -46.7 net Yards-Per-Game on the road. The Steelers winning record is due to their 5-0-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. Mike Tomlin’s team could easily be 3-6 instead of 5-3-1. Their record is also skewed when considering that six of their nine games have been at home at Heinz Field. They are scoring just 18.3 PPG and averaging 301.3 total YPG in their three road games. Pittsburgh did game 387 yards last week against the Lions — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last game Under the Total including failing to cover the point spread in four of their five games this season after an Under. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after an upset loss at home as the favorite. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles gave up 278 passing yards to the Vikings last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. The good news for the Chargers is that they expect defensive end Joey Bosa to be back on the field after being on the COVID list. On their home field, Los Angeles is scoring 27.2 PPG while averaging 380.6 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents. Against a depleted Steelers’ defense, Los Angeles should reach their home scoring average in the high-20s — and that is a mark that will be hard for Pittsburgh to match. The Steelers have not scored more than 17 points in five of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (461) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (462). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 22-10 upset loss at Miami as an 8.5-point underdog on November 11th. Chicago (3-6) has lost four in a row after their 29-27 loss at Pittsburgh as a 7-point underdog on November 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINT(S): This situation probably triggers a 25* play on Baltimore if Lamar Jackson is playing in this game. But Jackson has been declared out this morning with a non-COVID illness — so it will be Tyler Huntley under center. I still like the Ravens now as a small favorite in this game (albeit, as a 20* play). Baltimore likes the former Utah Utes’ quarterback because he is mobile and can operate the basic schemes designed for Jackson. In offensive coordinator Greg Roman, I trust, for this one. Look for Huntley to be very active in the run game this afternoon against a depleted Bears defense missing Khalil Mack (out the season) and Akeem Hicks. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. The Ravens defense surrendered 290 passing yards to the Dolphins last week — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored by 7 points or less. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread win — and in their last 16 home games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these games. I expect rookie QB Justin Fields to struggle in this one. He has thrown seven interceptions this season while being sacked 27 times. He has struggled against man-to-man coverage and pressure — and the Ravens will offer heavy doses of both this afternoon. Baltimore is third in the NFL by playing man-defense 40% of the time. They blitz 30.4% of the time on passing downs, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL — and their 31.8% pressure rate is ninth-best in the league. The Bears are coming off their bye week — but they are winless in seven games played off the bye under head coach Matt Nagy and they are just 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games coming off a bye. They are banged up on defense, as mentioned above, and they have surrendered 586 rushing yards in their last four games. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. While it is a disappointment that Jackson is not playing, that is why the line dropped to the Ravens laying just a point or so. John Harbaugh will find a way for his team to win this game. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (461) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (372) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (371). THE SITUATION: Utah (7-3) has won three games in a row with their 38-29 win at Arizona last week as a 24-point favorite. Oregon (9-1) has won five games in a row with their 38-24 victory against Washington State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should continue to build off its momentum. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road against a Pac-12 rival. The Utes have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after winning two in a row against Pac-12 foes. Utah is a better team now that they have settled their quarterback situation. Former Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer was under center early in the season — but the offense has improved after a disgruntled Brewer left the program because he was being outplayed by Cameron Rising. The former Texas recruit completed 19 of 30 passes last week for 294 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Rising has 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions — and he has made 13 Big-Time Throws with only three turnover-worthy plays. Utah is 3-3 on the road this year after starting the season 1-2 — but they are an unbeaten 4-0 at home with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. They generate 430.8 total YPG at home while allowing just 340.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored. The Utes defense has held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG and 323.0 YPG. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in conference play. Oregon has covered the point spread in their last two games after their narrow cover against the Cougars last week. But the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while their win against Washington State finished Over the 58 point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Ducks defense has some issues despite having a likely top-ten pick in the next NFL draft in defensive lineman Kayvan Thibodeaux. Oregon is 95th in the nation in defensive touchdown rate in the Red Zone. They are also 73rd in Havoc Rate — and Utah is 18th in Havoc Rate Allowed on offense. The Ducks goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Utah is in the driver’s seat to win the Pac-12 South with a one-game lead against Arizona State while controlling the tie-breaker with their victory against the Sun Devils. But Kyle Whittingham does not have his team take their foot off the gas pedal this time of the season. The Utes have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. And Whittingham will motivate his team to avenge the 37-15 loss to the Ducks in their last meeting on December 6th in 2019 by a 37-15 score. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Utah Utes (372) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (371). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (384) plus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (383). THE SITUATION: Navy (2-7) has lost four of their last five games after their 34-6 loss at Notre Dame as a 21-point underdog two weeks ago. East Carolina (6-4) has won three in a row after their 30-29 upset win in overtime against Memphis as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the disappointing record, Navy still has their showdown with Army to think about — so this is an important game to establish some momentum for that final rivalry game in three weeks. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Navy has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. The Midshipmen only gained 184 yards against the Irish in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. Despite their seven losses, Navy has been competitive — they lost by one score to the powers in the American Athletic Conference in Cincinnati, Houston, and SMU. They are 19th in the nation in Red Zone defense by keeping their opponents scoreless in 25% of their trips. It is Senior Day in Annapolis this afternoon — and the Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. East Carolina quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 29 of 46 passes for 317 yards in leading the Pirates to the upset win against the Tigers — but they are just 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The boxscore indicates that East Carolina outgained Memphis by a 502 to 341 yards margin — but they only averaged 4.9 Yards-Per-Play while allowing the Tigers to average 6.4 YPP. The Pirates are not likely to win the time of possession against a Navy team who average 35:34 minutes per game behind their triple-option rushing attack. After the emotional victory last week — and Cincinnati on deck — East Carolina may not have had their full attention during the week in preparing for the Midshipmen’s unique offense. They allow 4.4 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and they have surrendered 226 rushing yards to Appalachian State, 204 rushing yards to Marshall, and 199 rushing yards to South Florida. The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when favored overall.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina has not beaten Navy since 2011. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Midshipmen after losing at home to them last season by a 27-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Don’t be surprised if Navy wins this game outright — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Navy Midshipmen (384) plus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (409) and the UTSA Roadrunners (410). THE SITUATION: UAB (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 21-14 upset win at Marshall as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. UTSA (10-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 27-13 win against Southern Mississippi as a 32.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers controlled the clock by being on offense for 37:43 minutes last week which helped them hold the Thundering Herd to just 269 total yards to help them pull off the upset. That will be the formula for success again today for head coach Bill Clark. UAB has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Blazers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. UAB leads Conference USA by allowing only 320.2 total YPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play. In their six road games, the Blazers are allowing just 16.2 PPG and 280.7 total YPG. The Blazers have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total -- and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Under is 15-5-1 in UAB’s last 21 games as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. UTSA has not allowed more than 17 points in three of their last four games. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win. The Roadrunners held the Golden Eagles to just 189 yards of offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The UTSA defense has been particularly tough at home where they hold their guests to just 9.4 PPG and 192.6 total YPG. The Roadrunners have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. UTSA is fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 2.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. They will make thinks difficult on the Blazers who only average 85th in the nation by averaging 213 passing YPG — and UAB is just 56th in Passing Success Rate. The Roadrunners have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA clinches a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game with a win — but UAB is still alive to defend their conference title just one game behind the Roadrunners in the West Division. The Blazers defeated UTSA last year by a 21-13 score in Birmingham as a 21.5-point favorite on October 3rd. UAB has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in UTSA’s last 9 games against teams with winning records. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (409) and the UTSA Roadrunners (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (311) and the Atlanta Falcons (312). THE SITUATION: New England (6-4) has won four in a row with their 45-7 win against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (4-5) looks to rebound from their 43-3 loss at Dallas an 8-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots held the Browns to just 217 yards last week in their blowout victory. New England is allowing only 327.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game for their opponents. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now they go on the road where they are allowing just 326.3 total YPG — and they are holding their home hosts to just 14.5 PPG. New England has played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored. The Patriots have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG and 275.3 total YPG. Atlanta only managed 214 yards last week with their offense sputtering as it continues to be hit hard with the loss of key players. Wide receiver Calvin Ridley is out indefinitely dealing with personal issues. Running back/wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Hayden Hurst are both questionable this week with ankle injuries they suffered against the Cowboys. They are scoring only 14.3 PPG and 264.3 total YPG. They return home where they are winless in three games while only scoring 16.3 PPG and generating just 282.3 YPG. Atlanta has played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total in November — and New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (311) and the Atlanta Falcons (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) looks to rebound from their 43-3 loss at Dallas an 8-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won four in a row with their 45-7 win against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have lost two of their last three games after catching an angry Cowboys team that was coming off their worst game of the season in an upset loss at home to Denver. Despite Atlanta being hit hard by injuries, rookie head coach Arthur Smith has done a good job with this team. After losing their first two games of the season by 49 combined points, the Falcons won four of their next six games with each of those contests decided by one-scoring possession. If there was a silver lining from Sunday’s blowout loss, it was that Matt Ryan left the game in the third quarter. The veteran quarterback will be rested and ready for this game on a short week. Atlanta went into halftime trailing by a 36-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns at halftime in their last game. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a -2 net turnover margin did not help matters — but Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Falcons only gained 214 total yards in the loss — but they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Cowboys gained 431 yards against them last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New England is peaking in terms of market value after their 38-point win against the Browns — but they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. Additionally, New England is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now they go back on the road where they are 4-0 — but they are gaining just 309.3 total YPG in those contests. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has played much better than expected under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels — but New England has supported him with a quality rushing attack. The Patriots rushed for 184 yards last week after gaining 151 yards on the ground in their previous game at Carolina. The Patriots are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: After playing their last two games on the road, Atlanta returns home which gives them a situational edge in this matchup. The concept of selling high and buying low when handicapping football gets thrown around too loosely in my opinion — but this is a genuine opportunity to take advantage of that axiom fading a Patriots team that opened around a 4-point favorite but has been bet up to a touchdown or so favorite on the road on a short week. The market is overreacting to the blowout results both teams incurred last week. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 54-30 win against Kent State as a 2.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Ball State (5-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-29 upset loss at Northern Illinois as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chippewas generated 505 yards against the Golden Flashes last week with quarterback Daniel Richardson completing 21 of 27 passes for 268 yards with four touchdown passes. But Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Chippewas are scoring 32.8 PPG and averaging 447.5 total YPG — but those numbers drop by -6.0 PPG and -39.7 YPG in their five games on the road. Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Ball State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed 475 yards to the Huskies last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite returning 20 starters from the squad that won the Mid-American Championship last season, head coach Mike Neu has found things more difficult this year back to a full conference schedule after the COVID-shortened campaign last season. After scoring 34.2 PPG last year, the Cardinals are scoring only 25.6 PPG this year — that number drops to 22.2 PPG at home in their four games. They rank 106th in the nation by averaging 347.2 total YPG — and they averaging -19.2 fewer YPG at home. Third-year starting quarterback Drew Plitt leads an offense that is averaging just 206.0 passing YPG this season, ranking 96th in the nation. He has passed for less than 200 yards in two straight games as Neo pivots the offense around freshman running back Carson Steele. Ball State has rushed for at least 200 yards in three of their last four games. Continuing this ground attack will not exploit the vulnerable Chippewas ‘ pass defense that ranks 122nd in the nation by allowing 280.5 passing YPG. Central Michigan does defend the run well after returning ten starters from a defense that ranked ninth in the nation last year by holding their opponents to 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. The Chippewas are holding conference opponents to 3.8 YPC this year. The high-risk/high-reward aggressive tactics under head coach Jim McElwain is giving up too many big plays in the passing game — but Central Michigan does rank in the top ten in the nation in Tackles for Loss fueled by their 27 sacks. The Cardinals rushed for 246 yards last week — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ball State returns home where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Weather looks to play a role tonight with rain expected with winds in the 10-15 miles-per-hour range. The kicking and passing games may be negatively impacted. The Chippewas have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in that 56.5 to 63 range. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 34-26 upset loss to Ohio as a 6-point favorite last Tuesday. Western Michigan (6-4) ended their two-game losing streak with a 45-40 win against Akron as a 26-point favorite last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan still has plenty to play for this season even if their 3-3 conference record likely has them out of contention to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Reaching eight wins would be a milestone for this program as would winning the Michigan MAC Title involving the four directional teams from the state in the conference. Reaching a fourth bowl in the last six seasons under head coach Chris Creighton would cement his legacy. The Eagles have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Ben Bryant complete 41 of 57 passes for 354 yards in the losing effort to the Bobcats. The graduate transfer quarterback from Cincinnati is completing 69.7% of his passes and has thrown for at least 300 yards in four straight games. He leads an offense ranked 27th in the nation by scoring 34.0 PPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after passing for at least 280 yards. They return home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 PPG. Eastern Michigan rarely gets soundly defeated — they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. Western Michigan has been inconsistent under head coach Tim Lester. They are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival. The defensive play of the Broncos has been holding them back. They are tied for 91st in the nation by allowing 30.0 PPG — and they surrender 34.8 PPG and 413.3. total YPG in their four games on the road. Western Michigan has allowed at least 31 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after giving up at least 31 points in their last two contests. The offense has taken a step back this year as well. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby led the team to score 41.7 PPG last season — but the loss of two players to the NFL from that group may be playing a role in their averaging 11.0 fewer PPG this season. On the road, the Broncos are scoring just 24.3 PPG. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan was a favorite to win the MAC West Title — so their 3-3 record in the MAC has been another disappointment under Lester. It could be worse — the Broncos have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Eastern Michigan has played an incredible 45 of their last 58 games within one scoring possession. They are 2-3 in their five one-score games this year continuing a string of tough luck where they have won only four of their last fourteen games decided by eight points or less. Eastern Michigan has upset Miami (OH) and Toledo this year making it 15 upset wins under Creighton in the last six seasons. Getting 5.5 to 6 or so points offers a nice cushion in a game where the Eagles should be in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (266) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (265). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 31-17 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (7-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 28-16 upset loss to Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Matthew Stafford had his worst game in a Los Angeles uniform by completing 31 of 48 passes for 294 yards but with two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. The Rams’ offensive line struggled to slow down the Tennessee four-man rush and Stafford’s play reminded Detroit Lions fans of the quarterback they would often witness. Stafford will be without Robert Woods for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL on Friday. That injury came a day after the team signed Odell Beckham. I am skeptical but keeping an open mind on how Beckham will work with the Rams. There may be early growing pains in getting Stafford and Beckham on the same page. Stafford struggled at times keeping the Lions' offense in synch under the pressure of feeding Calvin Johnson the football. Los Angeles only gained 347 total yards last week with head coach and play-caller Sean McVay abandoning the run game and the play-action game that brought him so much initial success with this offense. Scoring 38 points against the New York Giants and Houston Texans is great — but the Rams have not scored more than 28 points in their other four games since peaking in a 34-24 win against Tampa Bay the last Sunday night in September. Those 28 points were scored at home against Detroit, by the way. Los Angeles did hold the Titans to just 194 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The Rams are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November under McVay. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after getting upset by an NFC West rival in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival as a home favorite. The 49ers only gained 337 yards against the Cardinals but they only had the ball on offense for 23:13 minutes. They averaged a healthy 6.6 Yards-Per-Play last week after averaging 8.6 YPP the previous week in a 33-22 win at Chicago. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. San Francisco has lost eleven of their last twelve games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They may be winless at home this season but they are outgaining their opponents by +13.2 net YPG. The Niners are outgaining their opponents by +27.5 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 meetings with the Rams while sweeping them in both divisional games the last two seasons. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (266) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 28-16 upset loss to Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 31-17 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ defense held the Titans to just 194 total yards but were stagnant on offense. Matthew Stafford had his worst game in a Los Angeles uniform by completing 31 of 48 passes for 294 yards but with two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. The Rams’ offensive line struggled to slow down the Tennessee four-man rush and Stafford’s play reminded Detroit Lions fans of the quarterback they would often witness. Stafford will be without Robert Woods for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL on Friday. That injury came a day after the team signed Odell Beckham. I am skeptical but keeping an open mind on how Beckham will work with the Rams. There may be early growing pains in getting Stafford and Beckham on the same page. Stafford struggled at times keeping the Lions' offense in synch under the pressure of feeding Calvin Johnson the football. Los Angeles only gained 347 total yards last week with head coach and play-caller Sean McVay abandoning the run game and the play-action game that brought him so much initial success with this offense. Scoring 38 points against the New York Giants and Houston Texans is great — but the Rams have not scored more than 28 points in their other four games since peaking in a 34-24 win against Tampa Bay the last Sunday night in September. Those 28 points were scored at home against Detroit, by the way. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Rams have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Now Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored. San Francisco only gained 337 yards last week in their loss to a Colt McCoy-led Cardinals. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did complete 28 of 40 passes for 326 yards in the losing effort — but the Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total hosting the Rams. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have seen 49 or fewer combined points in three of their four games at home in Levi Stadium. They have not scored more than 21 points in five of their eight games. The Rams have seen 51 or fewer points in three of their four games on the road. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 24 or fewer points. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (264) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (263). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-3) had their two-game losing streak snapped with a 23-16 loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (5-4) has won two in a row after their 13-7 win against Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas dominated the statistics against the Giants last week. They won the first down battle by a 24-16 margin — and they outgained them by a 403 to 245 margin in yards. A -2 net turnover margin did the Raiders in — including a 41-yard interception returned for a touchdown by the Giants. Las Vegas returns home where they are 3-1 this season while outgaining their opponents to +85.8 net Yards-Per-Game. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Las Vegas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City beat a Packers team playing without Aaron Rodgers despite only gaining 237 yards and getting outgained by -64 net yards. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in November. Furthermore, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC West rivals — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against division foes. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (264) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-4) has won two games in a row with their 13-7 victory against Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (5-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 23-16 upset loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. Kansas City has also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 14 points. The Chiefs have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played four straight Unders. Kansas City has then played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders — and they have played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. How long with the Patrick Mahomes slump continue? The Chiefs have only scored 36 combined points in their last three games. Facing the familiar Raiders’ defense may be just what the doctor ordered. Kansas City scored 35 and 32 points in their two games against Las Vegas last season. Mahomes has 15 touchdown passes in his six previous games against the Raiders. And while the Chiefs defense has only allowed 17 PPG in their last three games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Derek Carr completed 30 of 46 passes for 296 yards in the loss while leading the Raiders offense to 403 total yards. Las Vegas has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after gaining at least 400 yards run their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Raiders have averaged 423.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Las Vegas returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and the Over is 10-0-1 in their last 11 home games when they are the underdog. The Over is also 8-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas should be able to move the football against this Chiefs defense that allows 396.6 total YPG on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City sees 54.3 combined points scored when playing on the road while Las Vegas averages 50.6 combined points when playing at home. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Chiefs. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (255) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (256). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) looks to rebound from a 34-31 loss in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog against Baltimore last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-24 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: All of Minnesota’s losses this season have been by a touchdown or less this season. They should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 59 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two in a row. Minnesota was outgained by -182 yards against the Ravens after being outgained by -141 yards to Dallas in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 points in two straight games. The Vikings are still outgaining their opponents overall this season. They have forced multiple turnovers in four straight games — and they lead the NFL by averaging 3.4 sacks per game. Minnesota has also scored at least 30 points in four of their games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 68.8% of his passes on the road with a 111.3 Passer Rating — the fourth-best QB mark on the road this season. He has ten passing touchdowns on the road and no interceptions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record a home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles generated 445 yards last week against the Eagles en route to outgaining them by +114 net yards. But the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Los Angeles returns home where they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL as they are allowing 162 rushing YPG. Minnesota should have success in this department as they average 143 rushing YPG on the road — and they have generated 550 rushing yards in their last four games. Vikings running back Delvin Cook may come out with a big game in response to the off-the-field problems he had this week. Los Angeles is also banged up in their secondary with at least two cornerbacks out and more defensive backs questionable with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November — and Minnesota has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings win this game — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Minnesota Vikings (255) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). THE SITUATION: Utah State (7-2) has won four games in a row after their 35-13 win at New Mexico State as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday. San Jose State (5-5) had their two-game winning streak end with their 27-24 loss at Nevada as a 12.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Quarterback Lucas Bonner completed 23 of 32 passes for 349 yards in the victory against the Aggies — but Utah State has played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Bonner passed for 406 yards in their previous game against Hawai’i -- but the Aggies have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 yards in two straight games. Utah State stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 61 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Aggies have played 40 of these games Under the Total. San Jose State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road —  and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Spartans have also played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. San Jose State has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 6 straight home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Spartans scoring numbers on the season are lower than expected because quarterback Nick Starkel has missed a handful of games. He was back last week to help the offense pass for 288 yards — but San Jose State has played 8 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Spartans return home where they hold their opponents to just 21.3 PPG — and the 319.0 total Yards-Per-Game they give up to their guests is -36.0 net YPG below their season average. San Jose State has played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record Utah State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-24 loss at Utah as a 6.5-point underdog two weeks ago. Colorado (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 37-34 upset victory against Oregon State in double-overtime as an 11.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chip Kelly’s seat is getting warmer in Los Angeles after a two-game slide — although both losses were without quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The bye week helped DTR and some other injured players get healthy again for the stretch run of the season that will determine whether or not this has been a successful season. With USC on deck, UCLA will want to establish some momentum. They narrowly lost at home to Oregon by a 34-31 score in their previous game before being flat against the Utes. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they spotted Utah 28 points in the first half in their last game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two in a row to a Pac-12 foe while allowing at least 31 points in both contests . Hosting the Buffaloes may be just what the doctor ordered as they have allowed at least 200 rushing yards five times in this season including in each of their last three games. In their last seven contests, Colorado is giving up 211 rushing YPG with their opponent scoring at least three rushing touchdowns in four of those games. UCLA running backs Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown along with Thompson-Robinson combine to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry with 20 rushing touchdowns. They host the Buffaloes at the Rose Bowl where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Colorado is getting better play from freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis who has led them to score 33 PPG in their last two games after they averaged just 12 PPG in their first six games against FBS opponents. But the Buffaloes winless on the road in four games with an average losing margin of -17.8 PPG. They only score 13.0 PPG and average 238.8 total YPG on the road — and they allow their home hosts to average 433.3 total YPG. This will be Colorado’s third game in their last four on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. The Buffaloes surrendered 475 yards to the Beavers in their upset win — and they have failed to cover the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not committing a turnover.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has lost by at least 22 points in all four of their setbacks in the Pac-12 this season. UCLA has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (6-3) has won two straight games after their 31-28 win against Mississippi State as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (4-5) looks to rebound from their 20-14 loss at Alabama as a 29.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while Arkansas has not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Razorbacks go back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season in their three games away from home. They score only 23.7 PPG in these three away games — and their defense allows 33.0 PPG and 409.3 total YPG. Playing away from Fayetteville has been a problem for this program — they have won just once in their last fifteen road games since 2018. This team has won only one road game in their seven played under head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas has lost both of their two true road games when playing in a hostile environment rather than a neutral field. Now they are favored despite having failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored. LSU may have lost last week — but they feel good about themselves for holding the potent Crimson Tide offense to just 308 total yards. The Tigers stuffed Alabama in 14 of their 22 rushing attempts while holding them to only 3.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. LSU dialed up their pressure by generating four sacks and eight tackles for loss against the Tide — and Razorbacks’ QB K.J. Jefferson struggles against the blitz. While the Tigers are playing for a lame-duck head coach in Ed Orgeron who will not be retained at the end of the season, I expect the players to rally around him and each other in this night game in Death Valley. This group does not want the embarrassment of not becoming bowl eligible. As it is, LSU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And while the offense has only scored 31 points in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Orgeron is looking for a spark on offense which is why freshman quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will get plenty of snaps tonight — and he has a cannon for an arm.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Arkansas is just 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games when favored. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 20* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). THE SITUATION: Baylor (7-2) looks to rebound from a 30-28 upset loss at TCU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 52-21 victory against Texas Tech as a 19.5-point favorite as a 19.5-point favorite on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners are right in the heart of the College Football Playoff conversation with their unbeaten record — but this will be the most difficult game they have played so far this year when considering that their eight FBS opponents have combined for a 28-45 record (not including their victory against Western Carolina from the FCS). Their best win up to this point is probably their six-point win against a 6-3 Kansas State team. Five of their victories have been by a touchdown or less. Even with this soft schedule, the play of the Oklahoma defense once again appears to be a liability. They allow 24.2 Points-Per-Game and 383.9 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking 60th and 63rd in the nation. Injuries have not helped matters — but this remains a defense that is allowing 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt from opposing quarterbacks while ranking 113th in the nation by giving up 272.9 passing YPG. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch lost two cornerbacks to the NFL from last year — and sophomore cornerback Woodi Washington has been out with an injury — but these are ominous numbers heading into the most difficult part of their schedule. They do come off a bye week — but they are just 6-6 ATS in the 12 games under Lincoln Riley with an extra week to prepare. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. And while freshman quarterback Caleb Williams passed for over 400 yards against the Red Raiders to lead an offense that generated 541 yards, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 375 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma has scored at least 37 points in seven straight games after their narrow 16-13 escape at home against West Virginia in early September — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in five straight games. Baylor may have been caught looking ahead to this showdown last week in their upset loss to a Horned Frogs team motivated to play for head coach Gary Patterson who resigned after their previous game. The Bears can remove the bad taste in their mouth from that disappointing performance by stunning the undefeated Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a Big 12 rival where they were laying at least six points. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Bears need to tighten up on defense after allowing TCU gain 570 yards. Baylor has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards. Head coach Dave Aranda has talent on defense with ten starters back from the COVID-marred rookie campaign with the team last year. The Bears had not allowed 30 points before last week with only Iowa State scoring more than 24 points against them. Baylor has a potent rushing attack that averages 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry and ranks seventh in the nation by generating 230.9 rushing YPG. By not asking junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon to do too much, the Bears are averaging a healthy 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, Baylor has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Aranda schemed a defense last year that limited the Sooners to just 269 total yards and 10 points in the first half in a 27-14 Oklahoma victory in Norman. Now the Bears host Oklahoma in Norman where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Sooners. The inexperience of Williams at quarterback may lead to some nervy moments for the National Championship aspirations of Oklahoma. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (5-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 31-17 upset win against Colorado State as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (5-4) has won two in a row with their 40-14 upset win at Fresno State as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys had their second-highest scoring game this season with the 31 points they put on the scoreboard against the Rams. They are still averaging just 23.0 PPG this season — and they have scored 18.0 PPG in their last three games even after their 31 points last week. Wyoming has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory.  And while the Cowboys generated 477 yards of offense last week, the Under is a decisive 40-18-1 in their last 59 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The strength of Wyoming is their defense as they hold their opponents to 21.3 PPG. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 22 or fewer points — and their last three opponents averaged just 19.3 PPG. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Wyoming is fourth in the nation by allowing only 157.9 passing YPG — and they rank 22nd in Opponent’s Pass Success Rate so the low counting pass yards they allow is not purely a function of slower-paced games. The Cowboys do run the ball 63% of the time — so the clock will keep running tonight. Head coach Craig Bohl has moved to Levi Williams as his starting quarterback in the last two games — but he is completing only 55% of his passes. Wyoming goes on the road where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 road games as an underdog. Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 24 points in eight of their last nine games — and they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG. Boise State gained 470 yards against the Cowboys — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This is not a good matchup for the Broncos since they are so dependent on the arm of quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Boise State only averages 110 rushing YPG with their rushers averaging 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry. Not only are they 117th in rushing YPG but they are 114th in Rush Success Rate. They host this game where they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total on the blue turf against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Expect plenty of stalled drives tonight as Wyoming and Boise State rank 20th and 29th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drives. The last four meetings between these two teams have averaged only 37 combined points. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against each other — and there have been 6 straight Unders between these two teams when playing in Boise. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (114) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (113). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-7) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 17-9 win against Houston as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (6-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 34-31 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami should build off their recent momentum as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games in the second half of the season. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when getting 7.5 to 14 points as an underdog. The biggest difference between Brian Flores' team this season and last year has been the turnover game. Miami led the NFL by forcing 29 turnovers last season. The Dolphins have forced only 13 turnovers in their nine games this year — but they have also committed 18 turnovers to saddle them with a -5 net turnover margin. Now they host a Ravens team that has only forced seven turnovers this season — and they have not had more than one takeaway in six straight games. If Miami can just stay even in the turnover battle, they should be competitive tonight. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last four games at home, the Ravens return to the road where they have scored 23 or fewer points in two of their three games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a game-time decision with his finger injury that kept him out last week. Jacoby Brissett is one of the better backups in the league — so if he plays, the Dolphins should still be competitive after he led them to victory against the Texans last week. Brissett also kept Miami alive in a tight game in Las Vegas earlier in the season before the Raiders won in overtime by a 30-27 score. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. 10* NFL Baltimore-Miami Fox-TV Special with the Miami Dolphins (114) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (113) and the Miami Dolphins (114). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 34-31 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Miami (2-7) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 17-9 win against Houston as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. Baltimore has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. The Ravens did gain 500 yards of offense against the Vikings but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 adds in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are scoring 23.0 Points-Per-Game in their three previous games away from home — and they have only topped that number once this season. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. Miami has played 38 of their last 58 games Under the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. Tua Tagovailoa will be active tonight but he is not expected to start with his finger injury still limiting the throws he can make in this offense. Jacoby Brissett passed for 244 yards against the Texans — yet the Dolphins managed only 262 total yards due to their anemic rushing attack. The Dolphins score only 15.5 PPG at home with a 273.3 total YPG average.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (113) and the Miami Dolphins (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2) has won five of their last six games with their 54-29 win at Duke as a 21-point road favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (5-4) has won two of their last three games with their 58-55 win against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 home games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. Led by quarterback Kenny Pickett, the Panthers generated 638 yards of offense against the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Pitt returns home where they are scoring 46.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging 569.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +23.4 PPG due to a defense that is only allowing 22.6 PPG. Despite the Panthers being coached by a defensive guru in Pat Narduzzi, they are thriving due to the play of their offense and the emergence of Pickett at quarterback. Pitt has averaged 562.3 total YPG in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last three contests. We had North Carolina last Saturday in their victory against the Demon Deacons — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against an ACC foe and in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are winless in three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games. The weak link for North Carolina is their defense that allows 35.3 PPG and 404.3 total YPG on the road. The Tar Heels do not disrupt the quarterback — they rank 109th in the Pass Rush Pressure Rate. They also don’t protect their quarterback enough with their Havoc Rate Allowed that ranks 106th — and Narduzzi’s defense is 17th in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB North Carolina-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 15-10 upset victory at Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (3-5) has lost three in a row with their 33-22 loss to San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing better football due to improved play from their offensive line. After not rushing for more than 75 yards in their first four games, the Steelers have rushed for at least 115 yards in their three-game winning streak while averaging 127 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Rookie running back Najee Harris has been the main beneficiary as he has gained 294 rushing yards in these last three games. They have averaged 368.7 total YPG during their winning streak — a +38.4 net YPG bump over their season average. The improved rushing attack has taken some of the pressure off Ben Roethlisberger. While the veteran quarterback is in decline, he still can be effective in leading the passing game. He has not thrown an interception in 99 straight passes. Pittsburgh should build off their momentum tonight. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team continues to be built around their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 16.3 PPG and 329.7 total YPG. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 10th in the NFL in the DVOA metric by the Football Outsiders. They rank 6th in DVOA run defense which will offer a challenge to the Bears’ offense. Chicago is 30th in offensive DVOA and last rushing DVOA. Rookie Justin Fields may have played his best game as a pro last week against the 49ers. He completed 19 of 27 passes but for just 175 yards. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor finally got Fields using his legs in some designed run plays as he gained 103 yards on ten carries. Head coach Matt Nagy was not on the sidelines last week due to his testing positive for COVID. Nagy is back with the team tonight — so he may impose the offensive game plan for Patrick Mahomes he borrowed from Andy Reid when getting the Bears coaching gig. After failing with Mitchell Trubisky, Nagy has not gotten much from Fields. The former Ohio State star is completing only 59.5% of his passes and averaging 123.9 passing YPG. He has only thrown three touchdown passes but he has seven interceptions. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after a loss at home. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is averaging only 15.4 PPG and 264.0 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 10.8 PPG and 233.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The play of the Chicago defense is a concern tonight as well with linebacker Khalil Mack out with a foot injury and safety Eddie Jackson doubtful with a hamstring. The loss of Mack particularly stings since he is vital to the Bears’ run defense. Even with Mack, the Bears rank 18th in DVOA run defense. Chicago allowed 467 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games under Tomlin. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost three in a row with their 33-22 loss to San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 15-10 upset victory at Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss - and they have palled 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Chicago has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Bears have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Chicago is 30th in offensive DVOA and last rushing DVOA. Rookie Justin Fields may have played his best game as a pro last week against the 49ers. He completed 19 of 27 passes but for just 175 yards. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor finally got Fields using his legs in some designed run plays as he gained 103 yards on ten carries. Head coach Matt Nagy was not on the sidelines last week due to his testing positive for COVID. Nagy is back with the team tonight — so he may impose the offensive game plan for Patrick Mahomes he borrowed from Andy Reid when getting the Bears coaching gig. After failing with Mitchell Trubisky, Nagy has not gotten much from Fields. The former Ohio State star is completing only 59.5% of his passes and averaging 123.9 passing YPG. He has only thrown three touchdown passes but he has seven interceptions. The Bears have played 4 straight Unders after passing for no more than 150 yards in their last game. Chicago is averaging only 15.4 PPG and 264.0 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 10.8 PPG and 233.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record, the Bears have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Pittsburgh has seen the Under go 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. The Steelers generated 370 yards against the Browns last week — and the Under is 36-14-2 in their last 52 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Under is also 20-8-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 29 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team continues to be built around their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 16.3 PPG and 329.7 total YPG. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 10th in the NFL in the DVOA metric by the Football Outsiders. They rank 6th in DVOA run defense which will offer a challenge to the Bears’ offense. The Steelers return home where the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games when favored — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football — and Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Chicago-Pittsburgh ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-1) has won four straight games after their 38-22 win at Houston as a 17-point favorite last week.
Tennessee (6-2) has won four straight games after their 34-31 upset win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles did not cover the 17-point spread despite the victory by two touchdowns last week — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. And while the Rams have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Rams have the best offense in the NFL according to the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders — and they are averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. They are scoring 30.6 PPG — and they have scored at least 26 points in seven of their eight games. Now they will be playing a Titans defense that has allowed at least 27 points five times. Los Angeles leads the NFL in sacks — and they added Von Miller this week in a swap with Denver at the trade deadline. Will Tennessee be able to score into the 20s without Derrick Henry who is out with a foot injury? Ryan Tannehill’s Passer Rating drops by 20 points in his Titans’ career in games when he did not have Henry available in the backfield. After pulling off three straight upsets against Buffalo and Kansas City before the Colts last week, the bubble may be about ready to burst for this team. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Titans have not allowed more than 83 rushing yards in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in two straight games. These nice run defense numbers may say more about the lack of a rushing attack from Buffalo and Kansas City than it does about the effectiveness of the Tennessee run defense. That unit ranks 28th in DVOA in run defense.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-2) has won four straight games after their 34-31 upset win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-1) has won four straight games after their 38-22 win at Houston as a 17-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tennessee has scored at least 24 points in seven straight games — but they have given up at least 27 points five times already this season. The Over is 21-8-1 in the Titans’ last 31 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after a point spread victory. The Tennessee offense will be learning to live life without running back Derrick Henry for an extended period given his foot injury. The reports this week indicate that Adrian Peterson looked good in practice after he was signed to take on the rushing duties — he should be at least serviceable. I do expect the Titans to lean more on their passing attack. Wide receiver Julio Jones is healthy again — and the reports I am seeing indicate that wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to play tonight despite being limited in practice this week. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is 6-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 8 games after a straight-up win. Matthew Stafford completed 21 of 32 passes for 305 yards with three touchdown passes in the win against the Texans last week — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Rams have the best offense in the NFL according to the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders — and they are averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. They are scoring 30.6 PPG — and they have scored at least 26 points in seven of their eight games. But Los Angeles gave up 279 passing yards to Houston last week — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. The Rams are allowing 23.5 PPG and a 412.0 total YPG in their four games at home. Their run defense ranks 18th in DVOA — so I do think Tennessee will still be able to run the ball even without Henry.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 15-5-1 in the Titans’ last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 19-13 upset loss to Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-2) has won three games in a row after their 36-27 upset win against Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are missing key players on offense. For the Falcons, it is wide receiver Calvin Ridley who is out indefinitely for personal reasons. With Julio Jones gone from the team, quarterback Matt Ryan is suddenly without reliable weapons at wide receiver. They gained only 213 yards last week against the Panthers. Atlanta has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss to an NFC South rival. To compound matters for the Falcons’ offense, Ryan is dealing with a hand injury after getting cleated last week. He has stitches in his hand from that mishap which may impact his throwing. The Atlanta defense is improving under defensive coordinator Dean Pees. They have held their last three opponents to 22.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Falcons have also not allowed an opposing rusher to gain at least 100 yards on the ground in 23 straight games — so Alvin Kamara may not be able to carry the Saints offense with his rushing. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight Unders after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The New Orleans offense will be quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian given the season-ending knee injury to Jameis Winston. The Saints’ offense has already been limited this season with Michael Thomas on the shelf — and the wide receiver will not be returning this season after a mishap in his recovery. New Orleans is averaging 25.1 PPG but they rank 29th in the NFL by averaging only 305.9 total YPG and second-to-last with a 180.9 passing YPG mark. They are last in the league with just 15 Big Plays on offense this year. The Saints defense surrendered 421 yards last week to the Buccaneers — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans holds their opponents to just 18.3 PPG and 344.3 total YPG. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC South opponents. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (399) and the Washington Huskies (400). THE SITUATION: Oregon (7-1) has won three straight games after their 52-29 win against Colorado as a 24.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (4-4) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset win at Stanford as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington held the Cardinal to just 261 total yards in the victory. The Huskies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Washington only gives up 146.9 passing YPG this season — the lowest mark in the nation. The Huskies give up 18.9 PPG and 325.4 total YPG — ranking tied for 18th and 24th in the nation. But the Washington offense is limited after scoring just 19.3 PPG and averaging 315.7 total YPG in their last three games. The Huskies have played 5 straight Unders against winning teams. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they generated 568 total yards against the Buffaloes last week, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Ducks defense has not allowed more than 117 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game.  They are holding their opponents to just 3.5 rushing Yards-Per-Carry which will put pressure on Huskies’ quarterback Dylan Morris to move the ball with his arm. Oregon has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Weather will play a role in Seattle tonight — rain is expected with winds at 14 MPH and gusting to 22 MPH. Both of these teams already have limited vertical passing attacks — so the weather will allow both defenses to cheat another defender in the box. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at Washington. 10* CFB Oregon-Washington ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (399) and the Washington Huskies (400). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) enters this game coming off three 28-23 upset victory at Nebraska as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday. Michigan State (8-0) comes off a 37-33 upset win at home against Michigan as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue committed five turnovers two weeks ago in a loss to Wisconsin — but they turned the turnover tables on the Cornhuskers last week by generating a +4 net turnover margin. The Boilermakers handed Iowa their first loss of the season by a 24-7 score in Iowa City three weeks ago. Purdue returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog. The Boilermakers are stout on defense. They hold their opponents to just 17.1 Points-Per-Game and 313.8 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking tied for 10th and 17th in the nation respectively. They also rank 16th in the nation by averaging 307.0 passing  YPG. This combination of defense and a potent passing attack makes them a dangerous underdog. Purdue has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They may be catching Michigan State on a hangover after their emotional comeback victory against their hated rival Michigan last week. The Spartans were trailing by two touchdowns in the second half before outscoring the Wolverines by a 23-3 margin to pull out the victory. Michigan State has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Spartans defeated Michigan despite getting outgained by -157 net yards. Michigan State surrendered 552 yards in that game. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense. Opponents average 424.6 total YPG against them — ranking 101st in the nation. Sparty is particularly vulnerable against the pass as they rank 127th in the nation by allowing 300.5 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State ranks third in the first College Football Playoff poll which may add some pressure on them for this game as they go from feisty overachievers under second-year head coach Mel Tucker to controlling their destiny to reach the playoffs. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at Purdue. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (4-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 44-34 loss at Notre Dame as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 45-7 victory at home against Duke as a 16-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Demon Deacons raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead last week against the Blue Devils — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after taking at least a 24 point lead at halftime of their last game. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. Quarterback Sam Hartman had another big game as he completed 24 of 37 passes for 402 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that generated 677 total yards. But Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Turnover luck has helped the Demon Deacons cause as they have not committed more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in five straight games. Wake Forest has benefited from a soft schedule up to this point. Only Virginia and Army are FBS opponents that they have beaten that currently have winning records. While the Demon Deacons score plenty of points, that has overshadowed their suspect play on defense. They rank 99th in the FBS by allowing 421.5 total YPG. They have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.3 PPG and 474.4 total YPG. In their three road games, they have allowed their home hosts to score 36.7 PPG and average 538.3 total YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass (with their home games at Truist Field being played on field turf). North Carolina may possess the most potent offense that they placed all season. The Tar Heels are 12th in the nation by averaging 482.8 total YPG. Sam Howell completed 24 of 31 passes for 341 yards and added another 101 yards on the ground in their loss in South Bend. North Carolina has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. The Tar Heels did outgain the Fighting Irish last week by 39 yards by generating 564 yards of offense. They should be able to move the ball at will against the Demon Deacons. This team began the season with National Championship aspirations but an opening loss to Virginia Tech changed their realistic expectations. Ruining Wake Forest’s perfect season would give this group something to hang their hats on. North Carolina has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Tar Heels return home where they are 4-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.2 PPG. They average 45.2 PPG and 512.5 total YPG at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest could not stop Howell and the Tar Heels’ offense last season — they lost in Chapel Hill by a 59-53 score. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at North Carolina. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 34-31 upset loss in overtime to Tennessee on Sunday. New York (2-5) comes off a 31-24 upset win against Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Perhaps the best thing for this Indianapolis team is to get back on the field as soon as possible after the sting of losing their second game this season to their AFC South divisional rival in the Titans. Head coach Frank Reich should have his team ready to go in a must-win game for them to keep their playoff hopes alive. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home. They are also 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Colts got lulled away from their rushing attack in that game as they ran the ball only 20 times for 83 yards. Expect more touches for Jonathan Taylor tonight — and Indy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Colts should have a big edge in the turnover battle which should help them cover a double-digit spread. Indianapolis ranks second in the NFL with a +8 net turnover margin — and the Jets are 30th in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. Enter Mike White who will be making his second career start on a short week. He surprised in his first career start on Sunday by completing 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes — but he did throw two interceptions. The former Western Kentucky quarterback lived off short passes against the Bengals -- running back Michael Carter had 14 targets with nine receptions and running back Ty Johnson had another five catches from six targets out of the backfield. Jamison Crowder also had eight catches for 84 yards coming mostly from short routes. With White under center again this week since Zach Wilson is still injured, the Colts’ defense will adjust to this short game and dare White to throw the ball vertically down the field — and the Jets will once again be without their best deep threat in Corey Davis. Indianapolis has the fifth-best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they lead the league in Run Defense DVOA. The Jets are 28th in DVOA Offense with their best work coming from their rushing attack that ranks 19th in DVOA — but running the ball against the Colts will be problematic as they hold their guests to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. New York scores only 16.3 PPG and averages 235.6 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 11.8 PPG and 235.6 total YPG in their four road games. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are just 9-23-3 ATS in their last 35 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. New York’s defense is an issue after allowing their last three opponents to score 37.3 PPG and generate 439.7 total YPG. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New York goes back on the road on this short week where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -19.7 PPG. They allow their home hosts to score 31.5 PPG. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 14-33-4 ATS in their last 51 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and the Colts are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) comes off a 31-24 upset win against Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indianapolis (3-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 34-31 upset loss in overtime to Tennessee on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Bengals to just 318 total yards in the upset win. New York has played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Mike White surprised in his first career start by completing 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes. The former Western Kentucky quarterback lived off short passes against the Bengals -- running back Michael Carter had 14 targets with nine receptions and running back Ty Johnson had another five catches from six targets out of the backfield. Jamison Crowder also had eight catches for 84 yards coming mostly from short routes. With White under center again this week since Zach Wilson is still injured, the Colts’ defense will adjust to this short game and dare White to throw the ball vertically down the field — and the Jets will once again be without their best deep threat in Corey Davis. Indianapolis has the fifth-best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they lead the league in Run Defense DVOA. The Jets are 28th in DVOA Offense with their best work coming from their rushing attack that ranks 19th in DVOA — but running the ball against the Colts will be problematic as they hold their guests to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. New York scores only 16.3 PPG and averages 235.6 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 11.8 PPG and 235.6 total YPG in their four road games. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New York has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. And while rookie head coach Robert Saleh’s team has attempted 42 and 49 passes in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. Saleh is a defensive head coach after serving for years as the defensive coordinator in San Francisco — he does not want this game on the road to get into a shootout. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Colts have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Indy offense will be without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton once again as he goes through the concussion protocol. In their 3-point loss to the Titans, the Colts gained only 307 total yards. They only average 346.3 total YPG in their four games at home. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 14 points — and they have played 4 straight Unders as a favorite laying more than 10 points in all situations. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (3-4) has won two in a row after their 24-17 upset win at Ball State as a 3.5-point underdog on October 23rd. Ohio (1-7) has lost three in a row after their 34-27 loss to Kent State as a 5-point underdog on October 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks held the Cardinals to just 329 total yards in that victory. Miami (OH) has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Additionally, the RedHawks have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory against a conference rival. Miami did get quarterback Brett Gabbert back last week after the third-year sophomore quarterback missed the previous two games to injury. While he completed 20 of 24 passes in the win, he is still only completing 58.8% of his passes this season. The RedHawks are scoring only 21.1 PPG — and that average drops to just 17.2 PPG along with a 319.2 total YPG mark in their three previous road games with Gabbert the starter in two of those games. Gabbert is an upgrade over fourth-year sophomore A.J. Mayer  — but Brett is not the prospect that his brother, Blaine, was. Miami (OH) has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The RedHawks have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored. Ohio has palled 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss. And while the Bobcats generated 457 yards in their loss to the Golden Flashes, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This has been a lost season for the Bobcats after the surprise retirement of head coach Frank Solich in July after serving as the head coach for the program for 16 years. Offensive coordinator Tim Albin inked a four-year deal to become the new head coach — but this team is scoring only 21.1 PPG while averaging just 360.1 total YPG. Ohio wants to run the football — they average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Sophomore Kurtis Rourke, another younger brother of a quarterback with higher stature as he follows Nathan’s career as the Bobcats’ signal-caller, is overseeing an offense that averages just 166.8 passing YPG, 115th in the nation. Rourke will probably struggle against this RedHawks team that ranks 15th in the nation in Havoc Rate. Ohio stays at home where they have played13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will be chilly in Athens tonight with temperates dropping into the 30s as the game goes on. Cold weather does not help the passing game — especially when the players are not the best in the world in adapting to harder footballs. Ohio has played 4 straight Unders against Mid-American Conference opponents — and the Under is 10-3-1 in Miami (OH)’s last 14 games in November. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-3 upset win against Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week. Kansas City (3-4) looks to rebound from their 27-3 upset loss at Tennessee last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Many observers expect the Chiefs to take out the frustration of their 24-point loss last week — but Kansas City just needs a win more than they need to make any statements. Be careful laying double-digit points with a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Kansas City will probably still make the playoffs — but they have some fundamental problems they need to address. Their defense cannot stop anyone — they are allowing 29.0 Points-Per-Game. Using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the second-to-worst defense in the league while ranking 31st in both run defense and pass defense. The Titans gained 369 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. To make matters worse, Kansas City is turning the ball over too much. Patrick Mahomes has nine interceptions already this season. Mahomes is great — but he is trying to do too much behind a rebuilding offensive line. He might have been lulled into thinking he can consistently avoid trouble after only throwing six interceptions last year. He was very fortunate last season since he had another eight likely interceptions that were dropped by the defensive player. Kansas City has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in at least four straight games. The Chiefs have attempted at least 47 passes in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. Kansas City needs to run the ball more — we will see if that happens. They only ran the ball 13 times last week for 77 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Chiefs return home where they have lost two of their three games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. New York will be confident entering this game after playing their best game of the season last week. But with just two wins on the season, there is little room for complacency for this group in the second season under head coach Joe Judge. They held the Panthers to just 173 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The Giants have been a surprisingly reliable team on the road with Daniel Jones at QB. New York has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games as an underdog including twelve of the last sixteen of those circumstances. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5. or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when laying the points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (277) and the Kansas City Chiefs (278). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-3 upset win against Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week. Kansas City (3-4) looks to rebound from their 27-3 upset loss at Tennessee last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They should be playing catch-up in this game — this will not be a defensive struggle. The Giants are scoring 19.9 PPG — and they see that mark rise to a 25.3 PPG mark in their three games on the road this season. While the Chiefs are just 1-2 at home this season, New York has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Giants have also played 4 of their last 6 games on the road Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 15 points in their last game. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while Kansas City allowed 266 passing yards to the Titans last week en route to their 369 total yards of offense, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after giving up at least 350 total yards in their last contest. The Chiefs' defense cannot stop anyone — they are allowing 29.0 Points-Per-Game. Using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the second-to-worst defense in the league while ranking 31st in both run defense and pass defense.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total when the Total is set at 45.5 or higher. I think the Giants score at least 20 points with the Chiefs scoring at least 30 points -- so that floor should be enough to cash over tickets. This game looks reminiscent of the Giants’ 44-20 loss at Dallas on October 10th with the Total set at 53 — and the Cowboys’ defense is significantly better than the Kansas City defense. 10* NFL NY Giants-Kansas City ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (275). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-3) has won three of their last four games after their 34-28 win at Carolina in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Dallas (5-1) has won five in a row after their 35-29 win at New England in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: I am assuming that Dak Prescott will play — although his calf injury may limit his ability to scramble and keep him from being close to 100%. If the Cowboys opt to rest him another week and play Cooper Rush at quarterback, that only makes this Minnesota investment more attractive. The Vikings are underrated after three losses all decided by seven points or less. Minnesota is outgaining their opponents by +55.9 net Yards-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after a win by six points or less. In generating 571 yards against the Panthers, the Vikings rushed for 198 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. Kirk Cousins is enjoying a big season that is going mostly under the radar. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes only two interceptions. Minnesota returns home where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Vikings are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games in October. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing a game where at least 50 points were scored. The Cowboys gained 567 yards in that game against the Patriots — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Dallas outgained New England by +232 net yards despite needing overtime to pull out that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards including failing to cover the point spread in five of these last seven circumstances. And while the offense is averaging 7.2 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last three games — a situation made even worse if Rush is their quarterback.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played at Minnesota. Even with a healthy Prescott, I was liking the Vikings in this spot all week. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Dallas Cowboys (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-1) has won five in a row after their 35-29 win at New England in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Minnesota (3-3) has won three of their last four games after their 34-28 win at Carolina in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even if it is Cooper Rush at quarterback tonight, I like the Over. Dak Prescott will go through his pre-game gyration workout to see if he thinks he can give it a go. I suspect he will. But, I am handicapping this game on the assumption that Rush will make his first career NFL start. The former Central Michigan star was a bit of a gunslinger in college — and he has had two weeks to prepare for this game getting all the first-team reps. And offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has had the extra week to prepare a specific game plan to take advantage of his skillset. The Over is 14-3-1 in the Cowboys’ last 18 games after a bye week. Rush has the benefit of throwing to the terrific Dallas wide receivers with CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and the newly healthy Michael Gallup. Left tackle Tyron Smith returns to anchor the offensive line. And the Cowboys still have running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard leading an attack that is generating 164 rushing YPG. The Vikings are allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank just 24th in the league in run defense according to the DVOA metrics used by the Football Outsiders. So while I don’t expect Dallas to score at least 35 points for the fifth time this season if Rush is under center, I do think he can get them in the high-20s. As it is, the Cowboys have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Furthermore, Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. Minnesota should score their share of points against this Cowboys defense that is allowing 24.3 PPG with three of their opponents scoring at least 28 points. Kirk Cousins is enjoying a big season that is going mostly under the radar. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes only two interceptions. He completed 33 of 48 passes against the Panthers for 373 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the offense to 571 total yards. The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. Minnesota has played 5 straight games Over the Total after their bye week.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Cowboys have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total against the NFC. Dallas has also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. I did note that while the news of Prescott’s potential absence moved the Cowboys from being a small favorite to a 3-point dog, the Total barely moved. With either Prescott or Rush at QB, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Dallas Cowboys (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-2) has won two games in a row — both on the road — after a 13-10 win at Seattle as a 6-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay (6-1) has won four in a row after their 38-3 victory against Chicago last Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay benefited from an overwhelmed rookie at quarterback in the Bears Justin Fields who helped them earn a +4 net turnover margin in that game. But the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Now this team goes on the road where they are being outscored this season by -0.6 net Points-Per-Game. Tom Brady and company lost by 10 points in Los Angeles against the Rams before beating New England in overtime by two points and defeating Philadelphia by just six points 2 1/2 weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. The high-powered Patriots offense is scoring only 23.7 PPG in their three road games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been piling up style points against weak competition — they have played Miami, the Eagles, and the Bears in the last three weeks after the Brady versus Bill Belichick overtime thriller in Foxboro that began their winning streak. The Bucs are not at full health with Antonio Brown out at wide receiver and the secondary banged up including last year’s starting cornerbacks, Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting on IR. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, cornerback Richard Sherman, and linebacker Lavonte David are among the players listed as questionable. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games after winning their last two games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has transformed this team into a defense-first group that is risk-averse on offense. The Saints defense is allowing only 16.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the Football Outsiders DVOA metric for defense. Jameis Winston has been underappreciated at quarterback this season — he has not turned the ball over in his six of his games and he has 10 touchdown passes without an interception in the red zone. The organization made a savvy trade this week by re-acquiring veteran running back Mark Ingram from Houston to spell Alvin Kamara who cannot keep touching the ball 30 times per game. Now New Orleans returns to the Big Easy for just the second time all season given a front-loaded road schedule compounded by them playing their opening game in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. The Saints have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games as an underdog including seven of their last eight games. And in their last 9 home games as an underdog, New Orleans has covered the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints' defense did a good job of containing Brady in their three games last year. While the Buccaneers beat New Orleans in the playoffs last year by a 30-20 score as a 2.5-point underdog, they lost both regular-season games while scoring just 26 combined points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Buccaneers — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (270) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (269). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in their 34-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog. New England (3-4) has won two of their last three games after their 54-13 win against the New York Jets as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should respond with a vengeance after getting embarrassed by the Ravens. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after their bye week. The team is getting healthier with linebacker Drue Tranquill and safety Nasir Adderley returning to action and running back Austin Ekeler expected to be active for this game. They return home where they are scoring 30.7 PPG and generating 427.0 total YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored. The Chargers are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October. New England dominated the Jets last week — but all their wins have been against rookie quarterbacks in Zach Jones twice and Davis Mills. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are also 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers’ Justin Herbert is no rookie any longer — and he will be motivated to exact revenge from the 45-0 thumping Bill Belichick and the Patriots exacted on him and his team on December 6th last year. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Los Angeles Chargers (270) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (264). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-3) has won two games in a row after their 23-20 win in overtime against Seattle as a 5.5-point favorite back on Monday Night Football on October 17th. Cleveland (4-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 17-14 win against Denver as a 1.5-point favorite back on Thursday Night Football on October 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win at home. The Steelers are undervalued right now because Ben Roethlisberger is underrated at this point in his career. While Big Ben’s fantasy value has declined as he continues to age, he is a savvy veteran under center who can still move the offense when he has to. Pittsburgh upset Buffalo to begin the season. Roethlisberger’s problems have more to do with the Steelers' offensive line — but that unit is improving which also helps rookie running back Najee Harris make an impact on the game. Pittsburgh still has a top-ten defense — they rank ninth in Football Outsiders DVOA metric and they also rank ninth in run defense DVOA. The Steelers are dangerous underdogs under head coach Mike Tomlin — they are 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 games as the dog while covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the over/under in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Baker Mayfield will be under center again after backup Case Keenum looked just as capable in leading the offense against the Broncos — but he is still not at full strength with that bum shoulder. The Browns stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total in the 42.5-49 point range. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Roethlisberger has a 24-3-1 straight-up record against the Browns in his career after growing up in the Cleveland suburbs. Cleveland is just 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 games against AFC North competition. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (5-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 31-30 loss at Miami (FL) as a 3.5-point favorite. Louisville (4-3) has won four in a row after a 28-14 win against Boston College as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK MINUS THE POINTS: NC State suffered their second upset loss this season with their loss to the Hurricanes. But the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. NC State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Quarterback Devin Leary completed 24 of 42 passes for 310 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Leary is completing 65% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Wolfpack also has a stout defense. They are fourth in opponent’s Rush Success Rate — and they are allowing only 93.3 rushing YPG which is the tenth lowest in the nation. NC State is also 22nd in the nation in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. They return home where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.0 PPG. They are holding their guests to just 13.8 PPG and 290.3 total YPG — and they are scoring 37.8 PPG and 458.5 total YPG at home. The Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in all 6 games at home against ACC opponents. Louisville held the Eagles to just 266 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite that good effort, the Cardinals are still allowing 27.0 PPG ranking 76th in the nation — and they have given up at least 30 points four times this season. They lack a pass rush to put pressure on Leary. They also go on the road where they allow their home hosts to average 34.3 PPG and 507.7 YPG. Louisville is just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games on the road — and they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Cardinals are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: NC State did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. Louisville committed four turnovers last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after committing at least four turnovers in their last game. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). THE SITUATION: Florida (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 49-42 upset loss at LSU as a 12.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Georgia (7-0) remained unbeaten with their 30-13 win against Kentucky two Saturdays ago as a 21.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Turnovers did Florida in on the road in Baton Rouge two weeks ago. The Gators suffered a -4 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games away from home after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The ex-factor for head coach Dan Mullen is freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson who completed 10 of 19 passes for 167 yards while adding 37 rushing yards with a touchdown on the ground. The bye week should allow them time to develop more plays tailored for the exciting player who is averaging 12.6 Yards-Per-Carry and 18.7 Yards-Per-Completion. Florida gained 488 total yards against the Tigers in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Gators have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival. Additionally, Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 20 games after a bye week, the Gators have covered the point spread in 14 of these games. Georgia dominated the Wildcats two weeks ago by averaging 8.9 Yards-Per-Play while holding them to 3.5 YPP — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP and limiting their last opponent to 3.75 YPP in their last game. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in five of their seven games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Georgia is outstanding on defense as they have not allowed more than 13 points in a game all season — and they have held their last five opponents to 96 or fewer rushing yards. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Georgia has not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Quarterback J.T. Daniels is available to play this afternoon — but that may add some chaos into the equation for the favorites who have been riding senior Stetson Bennett for most of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has the pressure of being the number one ranked team in the nation — and they have never been favored by more than 13 points against Florida in program history. Their 10-7 opening week win against Clemson does not look nearly as impressive two months later. The Gators will have the confidence that they can pull the upset. After playing Alabama close in the SEC Championship Game last year, Florida lost to the Crimson Tide by a 31-29 score as a 14-point underdog back on September 18th this season. And the Gators upset this Bulldogs team last year by a 44-28 score as a 3-point favorite in last year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. 10* CFB Georgia-Florida CBS-TV Special with the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (3-4) return to action on a four-game losing streak after their 21-7 upset loss at Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Illinois (3-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-18 upset win at Penn State in nine overtimes as a 24.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The bye week could not come soon enough for head coach Greg Schiano in his second year back coaching the Rutgers program. Injuries had hit both sides of the ball including quarterback Noah Vedral who played against Northwestern despite a nagging arm injury. The Scarlet Knights have already endured most of the brutal part of the Big Ten schedule against the powers in the East Division having played Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State during their recent losing streak. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And while they managed only 222 total yards against the Wildcats, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. The Scarlet Knights thrive at defending against the run — they rank 21st in the nation in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. Illinois is one-dimensional on offense running the ball 58% of the time. They lost quarterback Artur Sitkowksi to a season-ending broken arm in the upset win against the Nittany Lions last week. The former Rutgers transfer took the starting job away from Brandon Peters early in the season. Peters, a former transfer from Michigan, is completing under 49% of his passes while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt this season. He has not thrown for more than 200 yards this season. There is a reason he left the Wolverines program. The Fighting Illini have passed for just 280 combined yards in their last four games. This group may be due for an emotional letdown after surviving the 2-point contest that their overtime game with Penn State devolved into. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit road underdog. The Fighting Illini ran the ball 67 times for 357 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after rushing for at least 300 yards. They only gained 38 yards in the air last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. They host this game at Memorial Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 42 or less.

FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Brett Bielema caught Penn State relying on quarterback Sean Clifford who was not 100% dealing with an undisclosed injury that clearly limited his mobility. Rutgers may be winless in Big Ten play — but they swept their three non-conference games including an impressive victory at Syracuse. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (107) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (108). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) won their sixth game in a row with their 24-10 victory against Washington as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (7-0) won their seventh straight game to start the season with their 31-5 win against Houston as a 20.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has experienced two big losses themselves this week with wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard both entering COVID protocol this week. The duo has caught more than 50% of Rodgers’ passes this season. But Rodgers has been in this situation before — and he does what it takes to keep moving the football down the field. In his six games played without his favorite target in Adams, Rodgers has completed over 70% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just one interception. Even more interesting, while Rodgers averages 246 passing Yards-Per-Game with Adams playing, he averages 310 passing YPG in these six games without Adams. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is expected back at wide receiver after he has been out with a hamstring injury — he joins Randall Cobb, Equanimeous St. Brown, and tight end Robert Tonyan as reliable targets. This shapes up to be a big game for Aaron Jones not only running the football but catching the ball out of the backfield. Forcing Rodgers to be more creative in finding other targets and doing more with his legs is not necessarily a bad thing. This is a much different challenge for the quarterback who was threatening to sit out the season to force a trade in the summer. The same competitive juices that had him taunting Chicago fans with “I still own you” should motivate him tonight. As it is, the Packers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They are also 39-19-2 ATS in their last 61 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Green Bay is allowing only 316.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. Aaron Rodgers is second in the NFL over the last two seasons with 15 victories as the starting quarterback on the road. The Packers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road — including four of their last five. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona is the lone undefeated team in the league — but I think this speaks more to the opponents they have drawn rather than a significant improvement in their defense. They faced two rookie backup quarterbacks last week in rookie Davis Mills with the Texans and Trey Lance with San Francisco three weeks ago. They caught a Cleveland offense ravaged with injuries at running back, the offensive line (both starting tackles were out), and at wide receiver two weeks ago. They even got the Los Angeles Rams flat in a letdown situation after they had just upset Tampa Bay the previous week. Throw in a third rookie quarterback in Week Three when they played Trevor Lawrence at Jacksonville — that is what Arizona has faced since a narrow 34-33 win at home against Minnesota in Week Two. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win by 21 or more points at home in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 home games following a victory at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored. The Cardinals suffered a big loss Wednesday night with the announcement that not only would J.J. Watt miss this game with a shoulder injury but he needs shoulder surgery that will keep him out the rest of the season. Watt has lost a step or two — but he is a savvy veteran who was drawing tons of attention so this is a big loss. Arizona held the hapless Texans to just 160 total yards last week — but they are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC opponents — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on Thursday Night Football. In Rodgers, We Trust to keep it close tonight. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (107) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (107) and the Arizona Cardinals (108). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) won their sixth game in a row with their 24-10 victory against Washington as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (7-0) won their seventh straight game to start the season with their 31-5 win against Houston as a 20.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have covered the point spread in five straight games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Arizona outgained the outmatched Texans by +237 yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 net yards. The Cardinals offense has been nearly unstoppable behind Kyler Murray who is healthy and continuing to improve in his third season in the league. Murray started fast last year as well but he appeared slowed by injury in the second half of the season which restricted his mobility. With the additions of wide receivers A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore, Murray has more reliable targets than just DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk this year — and the team just added tight end, Zach Ertz, in a trade from Philadelphia who was overjoyed with all the green grass he had when running routes amidst all this talent. The Cardinals have scored at least 31 points in six of their seven games this season. The play of the Arizona defense has been the bigger surprise as they have not allowed more than 20 points in five straight games. I think this speaks more to the opponents they have drawn rather than a significant improvement in their defense. They faced two rookie backup quarterbacks last week in rookie Davis Mills with the Texans and Trey Lance with San Francisco three weeks ago. They caught a Cleveland offense ravaged with injuries at running back, the offensive line (both starting tackles were out), and at wide receiver two weeks ago. They even got the Los Angeles Rams flat in a letdown situation after they had just upset Tampa Bay the previous week. Throw in a third rookie quarterback in Week Three when they played Trevor Lawrence at Jacksonville — that is what Arizona has faced since a narrow 34-33 win at home against Minnesota in Week Two. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held Houston to just 160 total yards and only 118 yards in the air, they have played 5 straight Overs after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The Cardinals suffered a big loss Wednesday night with the announcement that not only would J.J. Watt miss this game with a shoulder injury but he needs shoulder surgery that will keep him out the rest of the season. Watt has lost a step or two — but he is a savvy veteran who was drawing tons of attention so this is a big loss. Green Bay has experienced two big losses themselves this week with wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard both entering COVID protocol this week. The duo has caught more than 50% of Rodgers’ passes this season. But Rodgers has been in this situation before — and he does what it takes to keep moving the football down the field. In his six games played without his favorite target in Adams, Rodgers has completed over 70% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just one interception. Even more interesting, while Rodgers averages 246 passing Yards-Per-Game with Adams playing, he averages 310 passing YPG in these six games without Adams. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is expected back at wide receiver after he has been out with a hamstring injury — he joins Randall Cobb, Equanimeous St. Brown, and tight end Robert Tonyan as reliable targets. This shapes up to be a big game for Aaron Jones not only running the football but catching the ball out of the backfield. Forcing Rodgers to be more creative in finding other targets and doing more with his legs is not necessarily a bad thing. The Packers were outlined by -126 net yards in their win against the Football Team last week — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Over the Total after being outgained by at least 100 net yards. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs as a road underdog. Despite the Packers allowing only 20.9 PPG this season, they rank 24th in the Football Outsiders DVOA defensive metric.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona should once again score into the 30s with Rodgers playing catch-up to try to keep his team in the game. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (107) and the Arizona Cardinals (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (473) and the Seattle Seahawks (474). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 33-22 victory at Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on October 10th. Seattle (2-4) has lost two straight games and four of their last five after their 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Orleans returns to action after their bye week having beaten the Football Team despite getting outgained in yardage in that game. The Saints also lost the first down battle by a 26 to 18 margin. New Orleans is averaging just 295.2 total Yards-Per-Game with head coach Sean Payton keeping a short leash on quarterback Jameis Winston. New Orleans is running the ball in 54.9% of their plays on offense — and they are averaging only 24 pass attempts per game. Payton is trying to keep Winston from reverting back to his form with Tampa Bay when he was an interception machine. Keeping Winston from making mistakes in the Bomb Cyclone conditions tonight may be impossible. Like last night in Santa Clara, rain is expected all game with winds averaging 18 miles per hour and gusting to 23 miles per hour. Payton will not have his short-yardage specialist Taysom Hill tonight who is out as he recovers from a concussion. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is also still on Injured Reserve leaving the Saints without threats at wide receiver. New Orleans’ elite left tackle, Terron Armstead is also out indefinitely with an elbow injury. At is is, the Saints have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also played 5 straight Unders after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. With their first game of the season moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, this will be the Saints’ fifth game away from New Orleans in their first six games of the season. They have played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total. Seattle has played 6 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by six or fewer points. Geno Smith was solid under center as the proverbial “game manager.” He completed 23 of 32 passes for 209 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. We had Seattle last week with one of my arguments was the absence of Russell Wilson would actually help the defense since there would be less pressure to “Let Russ Cook.” The Seahawks went into that game averaging just 25:16 minutes per game on offense. The bad defensive numbers the team was putting up were made worse by requiring them to be on the field for almost 35 minutes per game. Seattle did lose the time of possession battle to Pittsburgh last week — but they did hold Pittsburgh to just 345 total yards of offense. The 5.8 Yards-Per-Play they held the Steelers to was half a yard less than the 6.3 YPP their opponents were averaging entering that game. The 20 points allowed in regulation and 345 yards allowed was the Seahawks’ best defensive effort since the opening week of the season when they beat Indianapolis on the road by a 28-16 score. Carroll is happiest when he can run the football to control the time of possession and keep his defense off the field. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. Seattle returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against NFC rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (473) and the Seattle Seahawks (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-4) has lost two straight games and four of their last five after their 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 33-22 victory at Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on October 10th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle started slowly against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football last week as they went into the locker room trailing by a 14-0 deficit. But the Seahawks remained resilient to outscore Pittsburgh in the second half by a 20-6 score to force overtime. Geno Smith was solid under center as the proverbial “game manager.” He completed 23 of 32 passes for 209 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He did lose the football in overtime paving the way for the Steelers’ winning field goal — but that play had a lot more to do with the greatness of linebacker T.J. Watt than it did Smith making a mistake. Smith now has 32 career starts in the NFL under his belt. He will be supported by a Seattle rushing attack that gets former first-round pick, Rashaad Penny, back from injury tonight. Alex Collins was very effective last week as the lead back for the Seahawks as he ran the ball 20 times for 101 yards with a touchdown. While he has been slowed in practice all week with a groin injury, head coach Pete Carroll says he is “ready to go” tonight. This is a “gotta have it” game for Seattle with four losses in their first six games. The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss with seven-point spread covers in their last ten games after getting beat in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. We had Seattle last week. One of my arguments was the absence of Russell Wilson would actually help the defense since there would be less pressure to “Let Russ Cook.” The Seahawks went into that game averaging just 25:16 minutes per game on offense. The bad defensive numbers the team was putting up were made worse by requiring them to be on the field for almost 35 minutes per game. Seattle did lose the time of possession battle to Pittsburgh last week — but they did hold Pittsburgh to just 345 total yards of offense. The 5.8 Yards-Per-Play they held the Steelers to was half a yard less than the 6.3 YPP their opponents were averaging entering that game. The 20 points allowed in regulation and 345 yards allowed was the Seahawks’ best defensive effort since the opening week of the season when they beat Indianapolis on the road by a 28-16 score. Carroll is happiest when he can run the football to control the time of possession and keep his defense off the field. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. New Orleans returns to action after their bye week having beaten the Football Team despite getting outgained in yardage in that game. The Saints also lost the first down battle by a 26 to 18 margin. New Orleans is 3-2 but they are getting outgained by -58.2 net Yards-Per-Game. The Saints have been outgained in four of their five games this season. They are averaging just 295.2 total Yards-Per-Game with head coach Sean Payton keeping a short leash on quarterback Jameis Winston. New Orleans is running the ball in 54.9% of their plays on offense — and they are averaging only 24 pass attempts per game. Payton is trying to keep Winston from reverting back to his form with Tampa Bay when he was an interception machine. Keeping Winston from making mistakes in the Bomb Cyclone conditions tonight may be impossible. Like last night in Santa Clara, rain is expected all game with winds averaging 18 miles per hour and gusting to 23 miles per hour. Payton will not have his short-yardage specialist Taysom Hill tonight who is out as he recovers from a concussion. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is also still on Injured Reserve leaving the Saints without threats at wide receiver. New Orleans’ elite left tackle, Terron Armstead is also out indefinitely with an elbow injury. Even with the bye week, the Saints continue a challenging stretch of game with this being their second straight and fifth of their first six games away from New Orleans.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football -- and Seattle owns MNF. Not only are the Seahawks 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games on Monday Night Football, but they have won eleven of their thirteen appearances on MNF in the Carroll regime. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (471) and the San Francisco 49ers (472). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 31-17 win against Houston as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-3) comes off their bye week looking to snap a three-game losing streak after a 17-10 loss at Arizona as a 6-point underdog on two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while they have scored 25 and 31 points in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight contests. The offense is without T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell at wide receiver. Right tackle Braden Smith is also out. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been playing better — but perhaps his four straight games without an interception only indicate he is well overdue. The weather forecast calls for a bomb cyclone on the west coast tonight — meaning high winds and perhaps lots of rain. Wentz does not handle adversity very well. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Niners have played 5 straight Unders when coming off their bye week. The San Francisco defense has been stout this season. They are holding their opponents to just 329.8 total YPG — and that mark lowers to 293.5 total YPG when playing at home. Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center for the 49ers tonight — but the high winds will do him no favors in the passing game, especially for a quarterback who throws up his share of wounded ducks even in pristine playing conditions.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. San Francisco has played 4 straight Unders in October. With the rain and wind likely contributing to missed field goals and shoddy passing, expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (471) and the San Francisco 49ers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) comes off their bye week looking to snap a three-game losing streak after a 17-10 loss at Arizona as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago. Indianapolis (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 31-17 win against Houston as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers need a victory desperately in the uber-competitive NFC West after losing at home to Seattle before their loss to the Cardinals. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after losing two in a row to division rivals. Additionally, the 49ers have covered the point spread in their last 3 games after a bye week under head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco is the only team with a losing record in the league to be outgaining their opponents in yardage. They have a +38.4 net YPG mark due to their defense that is holding their opponents to just 329.8 total YPG. And while they are winless at home in their first two games, they have outgained Green Bay and the Seahawks by +84.0 net YPG while holding them to just 293.5 total YPG. They get Jimmy Garoppolo back under center for this game. The main reason why the franchise felt the need to trade up in the draft to select Trey Lance is because of Garoppolo’s injury history. When he is healthy, he is good. Garoppolo has a 24-10 record as a starting quarterback since 2017 with a 98 Passer Rating and a completion percentage of 67%. The Colts average 4.7 Rushing Yards-Per-Carry this season — but the Niners have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. But the Colts have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. This is a tough spot for Indianapolis with them playing their fourth game on the road in their last five games. And with a showdown with Tennessee on deck, the urgency of this game is lessened. Sure, Indy wants to win this game — but having already lost to the Titans earlier this year, being ready to play that game is of higher importance. That could impact the playing time for some of their injured players. As it is, safety Julian Blackman is out for the rest of the season with an Achilles’ injury. Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin is also out tonight. The offense is without T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell at wide receiver. Right tackle Braden Smith is also out. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been playing better — but perhaps his four straight games without an interception only indicate he is well overdue. The weather forecast calls for a bomb cyclone on the west coast tonight — meaning high winds and perhaps lots of rain. Wentz does not handle adversity very well.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (453) and the New York Giants (454). THE SITUATION: Carolina (3-3) has lost three games in a row after their 34-28 loss in overtime against Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-5) has lost two in a row with their 38-11 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have been terrific on defense this season — but they have some things to clean up this week. The Vikings gouged them for 571 total yards including 198 yards on the ground on Sunday. Carolina has played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Unders after giving up at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. The Panthers are sixth in the NFL by allowing 20.2 PPG and they are third in the league by giving up just 308.3 total YPG. Additionally, Carolina leads the NFL with 38% of their opponent’s possessions ending in a three-and-out — and they are 2nd in third-down defense with an opponent conversion rate of 29.6%. The Panthers’ offense misses Christian McCaffrey who is critical in both their ground game and passing attack. Head coach Matt Rhule wants his team running the ball more and relying less on Sam Darnold’s arm after he has thrown six interceptions in his last three games. Expect plenty of rushing attempts from rookie Chuba Hubbard this afternoon. Carolina has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored. The Under is 6-2-1 in New York’s last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Under is 10-3-1 in the Giants’ last 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York gave up 365 yards to the Rams — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Giants are banged up on offense with running back Saquon Barkley and wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney all out with injuries leaving the team thin when it comes to talent at the skill positions. They are scoring only 19.0 PPG — and they return home to the Meadowlands where they are scoring 12.7 PPG and averaging 307.0 YPG. The Under is 6-0-1 in New York’s last 7 games at home — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents. With the Panthers committed to running more and putting less on Darnold’s shoulders against a Giants team ravaged with injuries, expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (453) and the New York Giants (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). THE SITUATION: USC (3-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-26 upset loss at home to Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on October 9th. Notre Dame (5-1) takes the field again after their 32-29 upset win at Virginia Tech as a 1-point underdog on October 9th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC outgained the Utes two weeks ago by seven yards but lost the turnover battle en route to losing the game. The Trojans are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. USC has also covered the pint spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. The Trojans are in transition after firing head coach Clay Helton earlier in the season. Interim head coach Donte Williams is auditioning for a head coaching gig moving forward — and both coordinators have plenty to work for regarding future coaching gigs. USC seems to always be inconsistent — but after losing to Utah, the players should be motivated to play in South Bend against an arch-rival on national television. USC has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Trojans have played three straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 13  of their last 16 road games after playing at least three straight overs. Quarterback Kedon Slovis was banged up earlier in the season — but he is getting healthy again. He completed 33 of 53 passes for 401 yards with two touchdowns against a good Utah defense. The extra week of rest should help — and USC has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a close win by three points or less on the road. That was the Fighting Irish’s third victory this season by just a field goal against mediocre competition after also just getting by Florida State and Toledo before the Hokies. Notre Dame is younger this year — and they are dealing with injuries. This Trojans team has more talent than those three teams they beat by a field goal — USC’s issue is focus. The Irish return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Notre Dame pinned their hopes on Wisconsin grad transfer Jack Coan at quarterback who lost his job to the guy struggling under center for the Badgers now. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: USC has lost by just seven and three points — while covering the point spread — in their previous two encounters when unranked against an Irish team ranked in the top-15. 10* CFB USC-Notre Dame NBC-TV Special with the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State (383) and the Iowa State Cyclones (384). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 33-24 upset win at Texas as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa State (4-2) enters this game coming off a 33-20 win at Kansas State as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys contained the potent Longhorns offense coached by Steve Sarkisian to just 317 total yards last week. This could be the best defensive team under head coach Mike Gundy in Stillwater. Oklahoma State is holding their opponents to just 19.5 Points-Per-Game and 307.2 total Yards-Per-Game this season. They rank ninth in the nation by forcing three-and-outs in 43% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 11th in the nation in run stuff rate and 17th in sack rate. But the typical high-powered Cowboys offense under Gundy has been mostly absent this year. Oklahoma State is scoring only 26.5 PPG this season — and they generate just 363.0 YPG on the road. The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Oklahoma State has played 24 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 18 road games as a road underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Iowa State held Kansas State to just 342 total yards in their road victory in that Big 12 rivalry game. The Under is 24-6-2 in their last 32 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 21-6-1 in their last 28 games after a point spread victory. The Cyclones have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win against a Big 12 rival. Iowa State is allowing only 16.3 PPG and 250.7 total YPG this season — and they have held three of their six opponents to 10 points or less. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Cyclones have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by no more than seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State won last year’s meeting in a relatively low-scoring 24-21 victory in Stillwater back on October 24th. The Under is 19-6-1 in Iowa State’s last 26 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State (383) and the Iowa State Cyclones (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). THE SITUATION: Army (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-14 loss at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (6-0) returns to action after surviving a 40-37 win at Syracuse in overtime on October 9th as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army opened the season winning their first four games before getting upset at Ball State two weeks ago before their challenging trip to Madison to play the Badgers. The Black Knights managed only 266 total yards last week against the stout Wisconsin run defense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Army once again is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as they are averaging 295 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Army returns home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Army also plays tough defense. They are allowing only 20.7 PPG along with 281.7 total YPG — and they have held four of their six opponents to 21 points or less. Army limited Wisconsin to just 310 yards last week. Wake Forest remained unbeaten two weeks ago with their victory at Syracuse despite being outgained by -88 net yards. The Demon Deacons were also outgained by Louisville three weeks ago but also survived that game with a narrow win by a field goal. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less on the road. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 19 of 32 passes for 330 yards against the Orange — but the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last  8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The play of the Wake Forest defense is a significant cause for concern after allowing the Cardinals and Orange to each generate over 500 yards. Both Louisville and Syracuse exposed the Wake Forest run defense by generating 213 and 354 rushing yards. Head coach Dave Clawson does have the extra week to prepare for the unique Army spread triple offense — but how much can be done to fix a defense that is allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry? The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Wake Forest stays on the road for the second straight game where they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in then 52.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Army has been an underdog against a Power Five conference team 9 times since 2016. They have covered the point spread in 7 of these games with two upset victories. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 34-24 upset loss at home to Las Vegas last week as a 5-point favorite. Cleveland (3-3) has lost two in a row after their 37-14 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an interesting game since both teams enter with similar profiles: both dealing with a ton of injuries, both coming off upset losses, both on multi-game losing streaks, both committed multiple turnovers last week. And the weather is going to be rough with rain and high winds. After conducting the due diligence regarding who should play tonight from the questionables (after getting burned on Sunday with both Cleveland tackles listed as questionable did not play against Arizona; "questionable" in the NFL generally means the player is taking the field), I am not sure the Browns have much of a team out there tonight. It does look like LT Jedrick Wills will play (but the RT and center are doubts), but their offenses consist of quarterback Case Keenum (who I am fine with — but Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater is better) with backup running backs and backup wide receivers (UPDATE: Jarvis Landry was activated from IR this afternoon although his effectiveness remains a question -- his availability does not impact this play) behind a banged-up line. And the defense is banged up (a unit I think was overrated to start the season). The Denver injury situation is not good either (in particular, the linebackers are decimated). But the deciding factor is the team trends -- the Broncos are reliable in these situations and the Browns are awful. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss to an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Broncos suffered a -4 net turnover margin against the Raiders — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. Denver goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. And while the Browns had a -3 net turnover margin against the Cardinals, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Cleveland has the advantage of staying at home on the short week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored. 

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing between Week Five and Week Nine. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 34-24 upset loss at home to Las Vegas last week as a 5-point favorite. Cleveland (3-3) has lost two in a row after their 37-14 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Before assessing the respective M*A*S*H* units for both teams, the weather forecast hovers over this situation tonight. Rain is expected with winds in the 17 miles-per-hour range with gusts adding another 10 MPH to the air currents at times. This game has “first one to score 20 points wins” written all over it — and I will not be surprised if one of the teams fails to score in double-digits. The wind and rain will impact the passing games for both teams while negatively impacting field goal attempts. If this game featured Dan Marino with his credo: “if it’s snowin’, I’m throwin’”, then I might not worry too much about the weather. But tonight’s game features Teddy Bridgewater (or maybe Drew Lock, especially by the end of the game given Bridgewater’s foot injury) against Case Keenum. And both these head coaches prefer to run the football — so they are not likely to engage in higher-risk passing attacks in these conditions coming off upset losses where they lost the turnover battle by -4 and -3 margins respectively. Who would be the targets anyways? Denver is without wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (Courtland Sutton is healthy but he is more of a possession receiver) and Cleveland looks to be without Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry is still on IR (UPDATE: Landry was activated from IR this afternoon although his effectiveness remains a question -- his availability does not impact this play). Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio wants to get his team back to playing good defense after allowing 426 yards to the Raiders last week. While the Denver defense is banged up (especially at linebacker), they still have Von Miller — and they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Under is also 21-6-1 in the Broncos’ last 28 games after a game where they allowed at least 350 yards. Denver did hold the Raiders to just 86 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Broncos are allowing opposing rushers to average 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry — the Browns will likely struggle to try to run the football without both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at running back given their injuries. Denver goes back on the road where they are allowing only 17.7 PPG and 298.0 total YPG. But they are scoring just 16.7 PPG in their last three games. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Cleveland has played 25 of their last 33 home games Under the Total after a loss at home in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. The Browns only managed 290 total yards last week against the Cardinals' defense. The problem is not just being without Chubb, Hunt, Landry, and probably Beckham. And the problem is not really about Baker Mayfield being out since I consider Case Keenum a quality backup playing under his former offensive coordinator at Minnesota in Kevin Stefanski. The issue is the Browns’ offensive line that was without both starting tackles last week (despite both being listed as questionable on game day — that usually means the player takes the field despite the injury). The news this morning is that left tackle Jedrick Wills will try to play tonight — but right tackle Jack Conklin and center J.C. Tretter are highly questionable. Conklin did not play on Sunday and Tretter did not take part in practice yesterday. Even with Mayfield, Cleveland is scoring only 23.8 PPG at home this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on Thursday night. The Under is 27-13-1 in the Broncos’ last 41 games against AFC opponents. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 4-point favorite last Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (6-0) remained unbeaten this season by winning their seventh game in their last eighteen since the start of last season with their 52-20 victory at Arkansas State as a 20-point favorite back on October 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State was flat on the road against a Ragin’ Cajuns team motivated to avenge a loss against them last year. We had Louisiana last week in that spot — and that loss sets up a nice situation for the Mountaineers. Head coach Shawn Clark can still have his team in the driver’s seat to win the Sub Belt East Division with a victory tonight. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and in their three losses by at least four touchdowns in program history, they have responded to cover the point spread all 3 times. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Appalachian State returned ten starters and their top seven tacklers from their defense that was 18th in the nation by allowing only 328.8 total YPG. The bigger concerns may be on offense after former Clemson and Duke transfer quarterback Chase Brice may have played the worst game of his career by throwing two interceptions to the Ragin’ Cajuns while completing 15 of 27 passes for only 135 yards. The Mountaineers are banged up at running back as well with Camerun Peoples missing the last two games and Daetrick Harrington and Nate Noel questionable. Former Notre Dame transfer Jahmir Smith is healthy — so Appalachian State still has talent at the position even if all three of those other backs cannot take the field. The Mountaineers rank 20th in the nation in Offensive Success Rate. They should play better. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. And while sophomore quarterback Grayson McCall completed 18 of 23 passes for 365 yards against the Red Wolves — but the Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Coastal Carolina has benefited from a soft early schedule — their wins have come against one FCS program in The Citadel and just one FBS team in Kansas. Their Group of Five campaign so far has been against Massachusetts, UL-Monroe, Buffalo, and then Arkansas State. This is — by far — their biggest test this season after being a two-touchdown favorite or better in their first six games. The Chanticleers are playing their second straight game on the road — and playing in hostile environments is not a normal occurrence for this team that benefited from limited crowds in their road games during the pandemic in their 11-1 season a year ago. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State is not an underdog often when playing at home at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone. The Mountaineers have lost only five times at home since 2015. Appalachian State has covered the point s spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Note to subscribers: due to a clerical mistake on my end, I cannot load my 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month report. The Reasons to Take Over the Total for Buffalo-Tennesse are provided after the Titans Report (and it is a bonus for those purchasing this package). I apologize for the confusion (and my clerical mistake that is not easily rectified) -- Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (276) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (275). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 37-19 win at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week. Buffalo (4-1) has won four in a row with their 38-20 upset win at Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win against an AFC South rival. The Titans did allow 256 passing yards to the Jaguars — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Tennessee has seen at least 51 combined points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Both of those games were on the road — now the Titans return home for just the third time this season. Tennessee has not been a home underdog often in the last few seasons — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Buffalo comes off their triumphant victory against a Chiefs team that beat them in the playoffs last season — but they may be due for an emotional letdown playing their second straight game on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning at least four games in a row. The Buffalo defense has been lauded for its two shutouts this season — yet they were both against backup quarterbacks. The Bills are only allowing 12.8 PPG — but they have played backup quarterbacks in Jacoby Brissett (for the majority of their game with the Dolphins), Taylor Heinecke, and Davis Mills. While I expected the Buffalo defense to be improved this season under head coach Sean McDermott with their influx of rookies on the defensive line and the return of Star Lotulelei and Matt Milano who did not play much (or at all) last season, this was still a middling defense that ranked 16th and 14th in the NFL by allowing 23.4 PPG and 352.5 YPG. The Bills have benefited from a bunch of giveaways during their winning streak. Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions last week with Buffalo enjoying a +4 net turnover margin in that game. The Bills had at least three giveaways in four straight games for a +12 net turnover margin over that span. Not coincidentally, Buffalo lost the turnover battle in their opening game against Pittsburgh in their line loss of the season. They now play a Titans team that has not committed a turnover in two straight games. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tennessee Titans (276) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Hollywood Sports’ 25* NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (275) and the Tennessee Titans (276). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-1) has won four in a row with their 38-20 upset win at Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Tennessee (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 37-19 win at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills generated 436 yards of offense against the Chiefs despite only being on offense for 27:35 minutes in that game. Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Over is also 14-5-1 in their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. But Buffalo also gave up 392 yards in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills’ defense has been lauded for its two shutouts this season — yet they were both against backup quarterbacks. Buffalo is only allowing 12.8 PPG — but they have played backup quarterbacks in Jacoby Brissett (for the majority of their game with the Dolphins), Taylor Heinecke, and Davis Mills. While I expected the Bills’ defense to be improved this season under head coach Sean McDermott with their influx of rookies on the defensive line and the return of Star Lotulelei and Matt Milano who did not play much (or at all) last season, this was still a middling defense that ranked 16th and 14th in the NFL by allowing 23.4 PPG and 352.5 YPG. Now this team stays on the road where they have scored 37 PPG in their last six games going back to last season. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. Tennessee has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and the Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread win. Led by Derrick Henry, the Titans rushed for 184 yards last week — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tennessee gained 368 yards last week against the Jaguars — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Titans gave up a whopping 4554 yards to Jacksonville in that game — and they have then played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tennessee is allowing 26.0 PPG and 377.4 total YPG. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total when an underdog. These are two high scoring teams whose explosive offenses outshine their middling defenses. Expect both teams to score both score in the high-20s (at least). 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (275) and the Tennessee Titans (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 26-17 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 7th. Pittsburgh (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-19 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Seahawks will be without Russell Wilson in this game — but I think this presents an opportunity for Seattle to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. The Seahawks’ offense is on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game this season. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game is wearing them out. The Seahawks have allowed at least 457 yards in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in two straight games. “Let Russ Cook” can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. Don’t be surprised if Geno Smith plays well at quarterback for this team — especially in a more structured offense under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. He had some good moments last week in leading the Seahawks offense to one touchdown drive and keeping them competitive after the Wilson injury. He completed 10 of 17 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown and an interception — and he added 23 rushing yards. Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an underdog loss. And while they enjoyed their best offensive game of the season by generating 391 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers’ defense has not been as stout this season as they are giving up 361.7 total YPG — way above their 305.8 total YPG defensive mark last season which was third-best in the NFL. The Broncos gained 374 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is averaging only 18.8 PPG and 319.6 total YPG at home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Expect a close game where having the points will offer valuable insurance. 20* NFL Seattle-Pittsburgh NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 26-17 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 7th. Pittsburgh (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-19 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Seahawks generated 354 yards last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Seattle’s offense will be less explosive with quarterback Russell Wilson out for at least the next month— but I think this presents an opportunity for Seattle to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. The Seahawks’ offense is on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game this season. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game is wearing them out. “Let Russ Cook” can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. Look for the Seahawks to run the ball more behind running back Alex Collins and slow the game down to help their beleaguered defense. Seattle goes on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Under is 5-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers had their best offensive game of the season by generating 391 total yards — but the Under is also 35-14-2 in their last 51 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh gave up 268 passing yards to Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Steelers host this game where the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has seen the Under go 23-9-1 in their last 33 games in October — and Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 October games Under the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 47-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Arizona (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 victory at home against San Francisco as a 6-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland lost to the Chargers despite outgaining them by +38 net yards. The Browns have won the yardage battle in all five of their games this season — but two blown double-digit leads represent the two blemishes on their record. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Browns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. This is a bad matchup for the Cardinals who allowed their opponents to average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Cleveland leads the NFL by averaging 188 rushing YPG and 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Granted, the Browns are missing Nick Chubb for this game — but this is an opportunity for Kareem Hunt to be the featured back. Cleveland’s ground game thrives from one of the best offensive lines in the league. They rushed for 230 yards last week against the Chargers — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. And while they outrushed the Chargers by +118 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Arizona may be due for a letdown after their undefeated start to the season. They have covered the point spread in three straight games with their last two games against the Rams and 49ers. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games against NFC West opponents. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And in their last 36 games after winning three games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of these games. As if traveling east was enough of a challenge, the Cardinals are dealing with a COVID outbreak that will keep not only head coach Kliff Kingsbury but also their quarterbacks' coach from traveling with the team. My cynical reaction to this news is that Arizona may be better off without Kingsbury — but he is the play-caller for the team. The loss of the QB coach is also big since he is the one who communicates Kyler Murray’s in-game thoughts and preferences to the play-caller. The loss of these coaches on the sidelines creates chaos — the Saints got beat badly by 19 points at Carolina in Week Two after their COVID outbreak left them without some coaches on the sidelines. Their best pass rusher Chandler Jones is also out with COVID. Murray is not 100% either as he is dealing with an arm injury. Murray only ran for one yard last week while dealing with that injury. Arizona is just 1-7-1 straight-up when Murray does not rush for at least 15 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters even more for the Cardinals, high winds in the 20 miles-per-hour range are expected in Cleveland this afternoon — making a good rushing attack even more valuable with the wind impacting balls in the air. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (262) minus the points versus the Los Angles Chargers (261). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-1) won their fourth game in a row on Monday with their 31-25 win against Indianapolis in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 47-42 victory at home against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore should build off their momentum after playing a bad game for three quarters against the Colts. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning at least four games in a row. And in their last 5 games after a point spread loss, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore averages 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry and 168 rushing Yards-Per-Game when playing at home which will present a challenge for this Chargers team that struggles to stop the run. Los Angeles ranks second-to-last in run defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They are last in the NFL by allowing 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have allowed at least 180 rushing yards in three of their five games. The Chargers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they generated 493 yards last week, they have failed to cover the appoint spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Special teams are also an issue for this team with four missed extra points already this season. Los Angeles ranks 29th in the special teams in DVOA — and the Ravens are 2nd in the NFL in special teams DVOA.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Baltimore Ravens (262) minus the points versus the Los Angles Chargers (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (251) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (252). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-4) has lost four in a row after their 45-17 loss at Tampa Bay as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (0-5) has lost 20 games in a row going back to last season after their 37-19 loss to Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: In this battle of struggling AFC teams, I side with the better head coach and better team culture in Brian Flores in his third year with Miami — especially in handling the challenge of traveling across the Atlantic Ocean to play in this game. Perhaps regression was due for the Dolphins after their 10-6 campaign last year — but injuries have played a role in their four-game losing streak. Miami should play better this morning. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Flores is a defensive coach — he will address this unite that got shredded by Tom Brady for 558 total yards last week. Miami does get Tua Tagovailoa back for this game after he was knocked out early in Week Two. I guess I am a Tua supporter only because I find the arguments that he is a bust to be vastly premature. Without the benefit of training camp last season and coming off his hip injury that shortened his career at Alabama, he still completed 64.1% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and just five interceptions in a timeshare with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He won six of the nine games he started — and he won his first start this season at New England. But this is an In Flores I Trust situation. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Miami has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games under Flores between Weeks Five and Nine. Urban Meyer needs to send Thank You notes to Jon Gruden for bumping his name off the Coaches in Crisis headlines this week. After Meyer’s controversy with not flying back with his team after their loss at Cincinnati, it was telling that the Jaguars did not rally around their career-college head coach in their 18-point loss to the Titans. There are numerous reports that Meyer has lost the room. This was not the first controversy that Meyer has had since taking the job with the Jaguars. From hiring the strength coach from Iowa with a history of “racially-charged” language to then the Tim Tebow vanity project in August, Meyer has consistently demonstrated that he thinks he is above normal professional behavior in the league. That is the wrong look for college head coaches attempting to make the jump to the league. The long trip to London tends to expose internal disfunction. As it is, this is a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. Jacksonville has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Trevor Lawrence did complete 23 of 33 passes for 273 yards last week in a losing effort — but the Jaguars are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. After the New York Jets loss to Atlanta last Sunday morning with rookie Bryce Wilson under center, teams using a rookie quarterback are 0-5 when playing in London while being outscored by -85 net points in those games. Rookies QBs have not passed for more than more touchdown passes in any of those five games. 20* NFL Miami-Jacksonville London Special with the Miami Dolphins (251) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 37-31 loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago on October 2nd as a 12-point underdog. Iowa State (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 59-7 win against Kansas as a 34.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas State lost to the Sooners despite outgaining them by +28 net yards. Quarterback Skylar Thomson completed 29 of 41 passes for 320 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in a losing effort. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their las 5 games after losing two of their last three games. This program under head coach Bill Snyder and now Chris Klieman have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a bye week. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.3 PPG and outgaining their guests by +66.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as a dog overall — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against Big 12 opponents. And in their last 55 games in October, the Wildcats are 37-16-2 ATS. Iowa State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 28 or more points. Additionally, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. After committing four turnovers in their showdown with Iowa last month, the Cyclones have not committed more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has likely had this game circled after getting embarrassed in Ames last year where the Cyclones crushed them by a 45-0 score. The Wildcats will have revenge on their mind — and they upset Iowa State two years ago in Manhattan by a 27-17 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). THE SITUATION: Purdue (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-13 upset loss to Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (6-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 23-20 win against Penn State as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Boilermakers lost to the Golden Gophers despite holding them to just 300 total yards. Purdue has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a  home favorite against a Big Ten opponent. And while quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed 34 of 52 passes for 371 yards in the losing effort, they have then played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Boilermakers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Purdue has an underrated defense that is fifth in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate and tenth in points allowed per drive. They are allowing 15.4 PPG and 299.6 total YPG. But the Boilermakers’ offense is scoring just 23.6 PPG and only 5.5 Yards-Per-Play. They average just 90.2 rushing YPG with a 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry rushing clip. Furthermore, they play at a very slow pace averaging 25.5 seconds per play. They go back on the road where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Purdue has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against conference opponents. Iowa beat the Nittany Lions despite only gaining 305 yards in that game — but they held Penn State to just 287 total yards. The Hawkeyes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home against a Big Ten foe. Iowa has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Iowa has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Hawkeyes are not efficient on offense with just a 36.5% success rate. They also play at a slow pace as they average 29.2 seconds-per-play. Iowa may score 31.5 PPG but they are generating just 317.5 total YPG. But the Hawkeyes’ defense is elite as they hold their opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 270.4 total YPG. They are tenth in the nation by allowing just 90.3 rushing YPG. Iowa has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games when favored — and they had played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and Purdue has played 5 straight Unders in October. While the number in the low-40s for this game makes the Under bet ominous, both these teams have great defenses and limited offenses that play at a slow pace. The first team to 20 points probably wins. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). THE SITUATION: Texas (4-2) looks to rebound from their 55-48 loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry as a 4-point underdog last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-0) remained undefeated two weeks ago with their 24-114 win against Baylor as a 4-point favorite on October 2nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas blew a 41-23 lead to lose to the Sooners last week. The Longhorns did eclipse the 45 point mark last week for the third time this season. Under first-year head coach Steve Sarkisian, Texas has been explosive on offense averaging 44.5 PPG, fifth-best in the nation. Sarkisian has one of the best running backs in the nation in Bijan Robinson who is third in the nation in rushing yards. But this offense became even more potent when Sarkisian moved to Casey Thompson as his starting quarterback. The fourth-year junior averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt last week against the Sooners’ defense. He completed 20 of 34 passes for 388 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Longhorns are scoring 52 PPG and generating 547.3 total YPG since Thompson became the starting quarterback. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Longhorns averaged 8.6 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last game. Texas did not commit more than one turnover last week for the sixth straight time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than one turnover in four straight games. Oklahoma State committed three turnovers in their win against the Bears two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after committing at least three turnovers in their last game. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Oklahoma State is playing great defense this season — they are holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG. But despite that nice number, they rank just 105th in the nation in tackling effectiveness — a daunting metric when now facing Robinson who broke ten tackles last week. And while the Cowboys have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least four straight games. The Oklahoma State offense will struggle to keep up with the Longhorns. Their four victories against FBS opponents were by only 1, 5, 10, and 11 points. They are scoring just 25.4 PPG and averaging only 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has only thrown for five touchdown passes in five games — and he has committed six turnover-worthy plays. He threw three picks against Baylor in his last game. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time all season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. Look for the unbeaten Cowboys to get exposed this afternoon. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-Texas Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-1) has won their last two games after their 45-17 victory against Miami as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-18 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers held the Dolphins to just 301 yards in their blowout victory on Sunday. Miami managed only 39 rushing yards in that contest. Tampa Bay led the NFL in rushing defense last season by holding their opponents to just 80.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game. This season, the Buccaneers have been even better by holding their opponents to just 46 rushing YPG on 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tampa Bay is making teams one-dimensional on offense — allowing their pass rush to take over. The Buccaneers have held their last two opponents to just 17 points in each contest. Tom Brady is dealing with a nagging injury with his throwing hand which may slow down their passing attack and/or compels them to run the ball more. The Eagles allow 142 rushing Yards-Per-Game this season — and Tampa Bay has played 39 of their last 62 games Under the Total against teams who allow at least 130 rushing YPG. Philadelphia’s defense is playing better this season — after allowing 363.1 total YPG last season, they have held their five opponents this year to 336.8 total YPG for an improvement of 26.3 net YPG. The Eagles have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing at home after a straight-up victory. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread wins -- and they have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory when playing at home. The Eagles return home where they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Buccaneers score 33.4 PPG, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 24 PPG. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-18 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-1) has won their last two games after their 45-17 victory against Miami as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles pulled off a nice win against a solid Panthers team last week. They held Carolina to just 267 yards in the win. Philadelphia had lost three games in a row where they did not cover the point spread — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 65 home games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games, the Eagles have covered the point spread a decisive 42 times. Philly is winless at home this year in difficult games against San Francisco and Kansas City — but they outgained both those teams by a combined +6.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. Tampa Bay may be due for a letdown after their blowout win against the Dolphins. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. The Buccaneers have a stout run defense — but they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for a whopping 314 Yards-Per-Game in the air. The Tampa Bay defense will be without two important starters in linebacker Lavonte David and free safety Antoine Winfield as they are dealing with injuries. Now they go on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.0 PPG. They are scoring just 21.5 PPG in their first two games away from home — and quarterback Tom Brady is dealing with an injured right hand which may slow him down in the passing game. His safety valve in Rob Gronkowski is also still out tonight with a rib injury. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Tampa Bay is also 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have been inconsistent this season which is not a big surprise for teams coming off Super Bowl triumphs. These are the types of games where these champions tend to underachieve — especially when on a short week. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a Thursday night. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 20-18 win at South Alabama as a 12-point favorite on October 2nd. Appalachian State (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 45-16 win against Georgia State as a 10.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana is not being given much respect by bettors after three of their victories have been by eight points or less. The Ragin’ Cajuns have only covered the point spread in a 49-14 blowout win against Ohio this season — by they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The team misses their running back duo from last season in Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas who moved on to the NFL (with Mitchell now a primary back for San Francisco). But in head coach Billy Napier I trust — and he has a senior-laden team with 20 starters back from last year’s group that qualified for the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game for the third straight season. The offense is led by fifth-year senior and third-year starter Levi Lewis who has won a bunch of games for this team. The dual-threat quarterback only passed for 49 yards last week — but Louisiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. Lewis is completing 62.7% of his passes with only one interception in his 150 pass attempts. The Ragin’ Cajun defense has not allowed more than 24 points in their last four games after giving up 38 points in their opening game loss at Texas to begin the season. Louisiana has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games when getting up to 7 points. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 21 or more points against a conference rival. The Mountaineers generated 502 yards against the Panthers last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Second-year head coach Shawn Clark has 17 starters back from the team that finished 9-3 last year. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana had lost all eight of their games with Appalachian State since 2014 -- including twice in 2019 including the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game — before avenging that loss last season with a 24-21 upset win in Boone on December 4th as a 3-point underdog. This is a crucial game for the Mountaineers who have Coastal Carolina on deck and little wiggle-room in the SBC West Division to take a loss. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. The Ragin’ Cajuns are in better shape in the East Division to reach the championship game for a fourth straight season (last year’s game was a COVID cancellation) — but the Mountaineers remain their white whale even after last year’s triumph. Expect a close game with Louisiana in a position to win late. 10* CFB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (479) and the Baltimore Ravens (480). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 27-17 upset win at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog. Baltimore (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 23-7 upset win at Denver as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as a road underdog. And while that game finished Over the low 41.5 point total, the Colts have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Over the Total. This team is scoring just 20.8 Points-Per-Game and averaging only 326.0 total YPG. They gained only 349 yards against the Dolphins despite holding the ball for 37:09 minutes. This will be a Jonathan Taylor game with Indy looking to once again win the time of possession battle to keep Lamar Jackson and the potent Ravens offense off the field. The Colts have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Ravens have also played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points at home. Baltimore has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have held their last two opponents to just 24 combined points despite being on the road for both games. Now Baltimore returns home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. They have played 4 of their last  5 games Under the Total when favored. Lamar Jackson completed 22 of 37 passes for 316 yards against the Broncos — but the Ravens have played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 12 of their last 13 meetings Under the Total including four straight Unders when playing in Baltimore. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (479) and the Baltimore Ravens (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (480) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (479). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 23-7 upset win at Denver as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 27-17 upset win at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore is dealing with injuries — but head coach John Harbaugh has instilled the “next man up” culture with his team. The Ravens outgained the Broncos by +152 net yards by holding Denver to just 254 total yards. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by +150 or more yards. Quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to improve in the passing game. He leads the NFL by averaging 12.1 air-yards per pass attempt — and his 14.4 yards-per-completion also leads the league. He completed 22 of 37 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions while only running for an additional 28 yards — he beat the tough Broncos defense with his arm. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Ravens return home for just the second time this season. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games — and they have coiffed the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after the first month of the season under Harbaugh. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while they held the Dolphins to just 35 yards, they have then lost 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. This Colts team is riddled with injuries — and they do not have the quality of depth that the Ravens do. Twelve players are on  Injured Reserve — and starting guard Braden Smith and cornerback Rock Ya-Son and first-round draft pick defensive end Kity Paye are all out for tonight. Indianapolis is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis is being outgained and outscored this season — and Baltimore is outgaining their opponents by +61.2 net Yards-Per-Game. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on Monday Night Football. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (480) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (478) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (477).  THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 42-30 win at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Buffalo (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 40-0 shutout win against Houston as a 19-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills look amazing on paper — they lead the NFL in point differential and they have only trailed in 11 total minutes in their first four games. But after a flat opening week performance against a Steelers team that is winless ever since, Buffalo has feasted on three backup quarterbacks in the last three weeks in Jacob Brissett (off the bench for most of that game after the Tua Tagovailoa injury), Taylor Heinicke, and then Davis Mills last week. Sorry, I am not ready to anoint this unit the second coming of the 1986 Bears — and their star linebacker Matt Milano is questionable with a hamstring injury. They are also benefiting from turnovers against these backup quarterbacks — they won the turnover battle in each of those three games while sporting a +3 and +4 net turnover margin in the last two weeks. But the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. And while Buffalo outrushed the Texans by +151 net yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards. Additionally, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two of their last three games. The Chiefs got their ground game going by rushing for a season-high 199 yards to help them generate 471 total yards. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott may be tempted to play two-high safeties to dare the Chiefs to run the football — but KC can still gouge them for first down after first down gobbling up five yards at a time. Defense is the concern for the Chiefs after allowing at least 29 points in all four of their games. But Kansas City has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will be motivated to avenge a 38-24 loss at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against the Chiefs. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Let’s back Patrick Mahomes at home laying no more than a field goal. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (478) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 40-0 shutout win against Houston as a 19-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 42-30 win at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 13-5-1 in the Bills’ last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a point spread victory. Buffalo has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by at least four touchdowns. After their opening loss at home to Pittsburgh, the Bills have won three straight all by at least 22 points — and they have scored at least 35 points in all three games. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning three in a row by double-digits — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points in three straight games. I believe in Josh Allen and this Bills offense that is scoring 33.5 PPG after finishing second in the NFL last year by scoring 31.3 PPG. But I am not yet a believer in this defense that has pitched two shutouts in the last three weeks. They have benefited from playing three backup quarterbacks in the last three weeks in Jacob Brissett (off the bench for most of that game after the Tua Tagovailoa injury), Taylor Heinicke, and then Davis Mills last week. Sorry, I am not ready to anoint this unit the second coming of the 1986 Bears — and their star linebacker Matt Milano is questionable with a hamstring injury. As it is, Buffalo has played 4 straight Overs after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held the hapless Texans' offense to 109 total yards, they have then played 5 straight Overs after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after shutting out their last opponent. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Patrick Mahomes completed 24 of 30 passes for 278 yards with five touchdown passes — and the Chiefs have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Kansas City is scoring 33.5 PPG this season after averaging 29.6 PPG last year while leading the NFL by averaging 415.8 total YPG — and they have added wide receiver Josh Gordon into the mix to offer them an additional red-zone threat. But the Chiefs' defense remains their Achilles’ heel as they are allowing 31.3 PPG and 432.8 total YPG. The Eagles (!) did not punt against them last week while gaining 461 yards with 365 of those in the air. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after giving up at least 350 passing yards in their last game. The Chiefs host this game in Arrowhead Stadium where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Kansas City’s 38-24 victory over the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs as an underdog — and the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. The Bills should approach or eclipse their scoring average in what should be a shootout. I will be prepared to watch Kansas City run the ball often against a Buffalo defense that may play two-high safeties to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off. Even so, I think the Chiefs still reach their season average. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (470) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (469). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-1) lost their first game of the season after their 28-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog for Monday Night Football. Chicago (2-2) evened their record with a 24-14 win against Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Chicago gave up 351 yards to the Lions with their banged-up offensive line and limited weapons at wide receiver — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears travel west with some difficult injuries. Defensive end Akiem Hicks is out with a groin injury which will hurt their defense. They are also without their top running back David Montgomery who is on IR with a knee injury. And while Justin Fields is in much better hands with offensive coordinator taking over the play-calling duties for head coach (and “My Way or the Highway” schemes that he permanently borrowed from Andy Reid), he is still a rookie quarterback making a start in a hostile environment (and it is loud here in Allegiant Stadium). Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Chicago is 0-2 on the road where they are getting outscored by -20 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by —217.5 net YPG. The Bears are giving up 30 PPG on the road while scoring just 10.0 PPG from 184.5 total YPG. They face an angry Raiders team that is 2-0 in their new building with fans allowed to attend while scoring 32.0 PPG and generation 494.0 total YPG. Las Vegas was flat on Monday in their loss against the Chargers after falling behind by at least two touchdowns for the third time in four games. Their ability to rally from deficits has led to the Raiders getting too complacent — and the lightning weather delay that night did them no favors to offset their growing habit of starting slow. Spotting Justin Herbert three touchdowns was too much to overcome. The slow start contributed to Las Vegas only running the ball 18 times for 48 rushing yards — and they were outgained by 120 rushing yards by the Chargers. Gruden’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of their 22 games in his coaching history after a game where they were outrushed by at least 100 yards. Gruden believes in the run game — and he has a healthy Josh Jacobs who should be in good shape after playing on Monday.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in Weeks 5-9 — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in October. I suspect that the Raiders finally get off to a fast start in this one. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (470) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (347) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (348). THE SITUATION: Utah (2-2) comes off a 24-13 win against Washington State as a 15-point favorite back on September 25th. USC (3-2) beat Colorado by a 37-14 score in Boulder as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLSU THE POINTS: Utah lost two non-conference games at BYU and San Diego State — but they are unbeaten in Pac-12 play. Head coach Kyle Whittingham will have his team ready to play with an extra week to rest and prepare. The Utes have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after a bye week. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win in conference play. Utah has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win in Pac-12 play. The Utes defense is consistently good — and they are allowing only 22.3 PPG and 304.0 total YPG despite a challenging early schedule. Utah has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They are stable at quarterback now under sixth-year senior Cameron Rising being the clear starter after Charlie Brewer left the team (after losing this job). Now this team goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Utah is 46-22-2 ATS in their last 70 games as an underdog — and they are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games as an underdog. The Utes have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in October under Whittingham. USC may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Interim head coach Donte Williams called out his team this week despite the victory given the group’s loose play with fumbles, penalties, and too many celebrations. The players are behaving like they have a substitute teacher — and that is not a good way to then play a well-coached team like Utah. The Trojans are 1-2 at home in the Coliseum where they are getting outscored by a field goal and surrendering 31.3 PPG and 428.7 total YPG. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to a field goal.

FINAL TAKE: Utah will be motivated to avenge a 33-17 loss at home to USC last season as a 1-point underdog. The Utes have cord the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games under Whittingham in conference play. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Utah Utes (347) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (348). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (359) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (360). THE SITUATION: LSU (3-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 24-19 upset loss at home to Auburn as a 3-point favorite. Kentucky (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 20-13 upset win at home against Florida as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU suffered their second upset loss this season after opening the year with an upset loss at UCLA. The Tigers have been resilient under head coach Ed Orgeron. LSU has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread 16 of their last 22 games on the road after an upset loss. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LSU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Tigers are scoring 31.4 PPG this season. They are getting good play from sophomore quarterback Max Johnson who is completing 62.4% of their passes with 16 touchdowns. He completed 26 of 46 passes for 325 yards in the loss to Auburn. LSU’s defense gave up 453 yards to Auburn — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite the loss, they have not given up more than 25 points in four straight games. The Tigers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games against teams with a winning record at home. LSU has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October. Kentucky enjoyed their biggest victory of the season buy upsetting the Gators — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after an upset victory against an SEC rival where they were getting at least six points. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a conference rival. Kentucky pulled off the upset despite getting outgained by -158 net yards and losing the first down battle, 21-13.3 The Wildcats upset a Florida team that was competitive against Alabama — but they also only beat UT-Chattanooga by five points despite being a 31-point favorite. Kentucky is living dangerously with a -9 net turnover margin. They have only forced three turnovers all season with one takeaway in three games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing more than one turnover in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for this LSU program since they will likely be underdogs in the subsequent three games over a difficult stretch where they play Florida then at Mississippi and at Alabama. 25* CFB SEC Underdog of the Month with the LSU Tigers (359) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (360). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (341) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (342). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-31 upset loss at home to Nevada as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-20 victory at Utah State as an 8.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State outgained the Wolf Pack by +57 yards but they were undone by a -3 net turnover margin. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. Boise State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three contests. It has been a disappointing start for new head coach Andy Avalos — but his team has played a tough schedule. Their three losses were to Oklahoma State, Central Florida, and then a solid Nevada team last week. Boise State can rack up points with Hank Bachmeier under center. They rank 17th in Success Rate in the passing game with a star wide receiver in Khalil Shakir and Bachmeier averaging 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. He completed 34 of 48 passes for 388 yards with four touchdowns against the Wolf Pack. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread 7 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog. BYU got the benefit of a +2 net turnover margin in their win against the Aggies on October 1st. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games at home after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. BYU has only committed two turnovers all season — and they have not turned the ball over in their last two games. But the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not turning the ball over in two straight games. BYU is only outgaining their opponents by +27.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Boise State should be able to move the ball in the air against this Cougars defense that ranks 98th in Success Rate in the passing game. BYU is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Boise State Broncos (341) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (342). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (309) and the Florida International Golden Panthers (310). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-14 loss at Illinois as a 10-point underdog last Saturday. FIU (1-4) has lost nine of their last ten games going back to last season after a 58-21 loss at FAU as a 10.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Charlotte managed only 263 yards of offense against the Fighting Illini defense — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. They are scoring 26.8 Points-Per-Game while generating 411.8 total YPG. Quarterback Chris Reynolds is averaging a robust 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game with 11 touchdown passes. He faces a porous Golden Panthers pass defense that lacks a pass rush and allows opposing quarterbacks to average 8.9 YPA. FIU is giving up 41.5 PPG and 555.8 total YPG. They have allowed at least 397 passing yards against their last three opponents. Charlotte has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a favorite. FIU has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. The Owls generated a whopping 704 yards against them last week — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. After playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Between Max Bortenschlager and Grayson Games, they passed for 319 yards last week — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They face a suspect 49ers defense that ranks 111th in the nation in Big Plays Allowed. Charlotte is surrendering 7.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — 125th in the FBS. Their run defense is giving up 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry and a whopping 255 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. Expect a competitive and high-scoring game. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (309) and the Florida International Golden Panthers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (301) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 37-20 upset loss to Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite. Seattle (2-2) comes off a 28-21 upset at San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINT(S): Los Angeles should bounce-back after losing their first game of the season five days ago. The Rams have rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Additionally, Los Angeles is 12-3-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams typically respond well to setbacks under head coach Sean McVay. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles did gain 401 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Rams defense disappointed by surrendering 465 yards and 37 points. Los Angeles is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Seattle only gained 234 yards last week against the 49ers but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Russell Wilson passed for just 149 yards in the game. The Seahawks may be without running back Chris Carson who is questionable with a neck injury which would leave them to just Alex Collins with Rashaad Penny on IR. But the bigger issue for Seattle has been on defense with them allowing 444.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They are being outgained by -94.5 net YPG. The 49ers gained 457 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Seahawks have allowed at least 313 passing yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Seahawks including their 30-20 win in Seattle in the playoffs last January. The Rams are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against NFC West opponents — and the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (301) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 37-20 upset loss to Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite. Seattle (2-2) comes off a 28-21 upset at San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams need to tighten things up on defense after the Cardinals generated 465 yards against them last week. Regression was expected for that unit after they led the NFL by allowing only 4.6 Yards-Per-Play which was +0.33 YPP better than the next best defensive team in that metric. Los Angeles still has defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey. After only having the ball for 24:50 minutes against Arizona, head coach Sean McVay may look to run the ball a bit more to keep his defense rested and off the field. Their 23 rushing attempts last week were tied for the lowest in a game so far this season. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. And in their last 27 games when favored, they have played 20 of these games Under the Total. Seattle only gained 234 yards last week against the 49ers but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Russell Wilson passed for just 149 yards in the game. The Seahawks may be without running back Chris Carson who is questionable with a neck injury which would leave them to just Alex Collins with Rashaad Penny on IR. After averaging 28.7 Points-Per-Game and 369.5 total YPG last season, Seattle is down to scoring 25.8 PPG and averaging 350.3 total YPG this season. The Seahawks gave up 314 yards in the air to the Niners last week — the third week in a row that they have given up at least 300 passing yards — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after giving up at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and the Under is 3-1-1 in Seattle’s last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Seahawks have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Seattle has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total for Thursday Night Football. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in October — and the Rams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.