At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (8-6) has won five of their last six games after a 31-13 win against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (9-5) lost their third game in their last four in a 19-13 loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers gained 397 total yards last week in their victory against the Falcons. They have scored at least 30 points in four of their last six games and five of their last eight contests. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Niners have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Even without an injured Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco ran for 162 yards against Atlanta. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is using wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, out of the backfield to great success. In Samuel’s last five games — all victories for the 49ers where they have scored at least 26 points (he did not play in their loss to Seattle on December 5th) — he has run the ball 33 times for 247 yards with six touchdowns including a score in each of those five games. Running back Jeff Wilson ran the ball 21 times for 110 yards with a touchdown in his best game of the season after missing the first half of the year to an injury. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when favored. The Titans went into halftime with a 13-3 lead against the Steelers but did not score in the second half in their loss last week. They did rush for 201 yards in the setback with D’Onta Foreman running the ball 22 times for 108 yards. Tennessee has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tennessee returns home where the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Injuries have depleted the skill position players on offense — but the running game is still functioning even without Derrick Henry and after getting wide receiver Julio Jones back last week, wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to return to the field this week after dealing with a chest injury. The Over is 19-7-1 in the Titans’ last 27 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 games in December, Tennessee has played 9 of these games Over the Total. The Titans are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with three players out including two starters — but they can move some players around to still form a capable starting five which will now likely include their second-round draft pick, Dillon Radunz. The Niners are dealing with several missing pieces on defense including recent injuries to two of their starters at linebacker (and Dre Greenlaw has been declared out). I concluded the impact of the losses still offers us value relative to the line.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday night — and the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (452) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (451). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-5) lost their third game in their last four in a 19-13 loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. San Francisco (8-6) has won five of their last six games after a 31-13 win against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: The Titans went into halftime with a 13-3 lead against the Steelers but did not score in the second half in their loss last week. A -4 net turnover margin spoiled Tennessee winning the yardage battle by a 318 to 170 margin. They did rush for 201 yards in the setback with D’Onta Foreman running the ball 22 times for 108 yards — and that is a good sign for this team if they can avoid fumbling the ball three times like they did last week. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. Injuries have depleted the skill position players on offense — but the running game is still functioning even without Derrick Henry and after getting wide receiver Julio Jones back last week, wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to return to the field this week after dealing with a chest injury. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games on the road after a win by at least 14 points. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Titans are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with three players out including two starters — but they can move some players around to still form a capable starting five which will now likely include their second-round draft pick, Dillon Radunz. The Niners are dealing with several missing pieces on defense including recent injuries to two of their starters at linebacker (and Dre Greenlaw has been declared out). I concluded the impact of the losses still offers us value relative to the line.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco travels east on a short week to Nashville — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 appearances on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Tennessee Titans (452) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (291) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (292) in the Frisco Football Classic. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (5-6) lost their chance to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game with a 48-47 upset loss in overtime at Kent State as a 1-point favorite on November 27th. North Texas (6-6) won their fifth straight game with a 45-23 upset win against UTSA as a 9.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Miami should respond with a strong effort for head coach Chuck Martin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a loss by seven points or less to a conference rival. This has been an explosive team on offense since sophomore quarterback Brett Gabbert returned from injury on October 23rd. They have scored more than 37 Points-Per-Game in their last six games while averaging 6.8 Yards-Per-Play in their last five contests. Gabbert has thrown 24 touchdown passes to just six interceptions won the season — and he has averaged 9.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in his last five starts since returning from injury. He completed 26 of 51 passes for 405 yards with four touchdown passes in the loss to the Golden Flashes. He should have success against the suspect Mean Green secondary that allows 7.9 YPA and ranks 123rd in the nation in Explosiveness Allowed in the passing game. The issue for Miami (OH) is to play better on the defensive side of the football. They allowed a power Kent State offense to gain 303 yards on the ground and 339 yards in the air — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. North Texas may have upset the Roadrunners in their last game — but they were facing a UTSA team that had already clinched their spot in the Conference USA Championship Game and who rested their key starters in the second half of the game. The Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. North Texas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Mean Green allowed 205 rushing yards in their victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. North Texas had failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in December. The Mean Green have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when playing on grass. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl Classic ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (291) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (223) minus the points versus the UTSA Roadrunners (224) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (11-2) looks to rebound from a 46-13 upset loss to Utah State as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 4th. UTSA (12-1) won the Conference USA Championship Game with their 49-41 upset win against Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on December 3rd. This game is being played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego State was without 20 players on the COVID list including quarterback Lucas Johnson in their loss to the Aggies. The roster appears to be mostly healthy again for this opportunity to end the season on a positive note after that disappointment in their conference championship game. Winning this game would also give this team 12 wins to break a school record for victories. As it is, the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a double-digit loss. San Diego State is also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 AS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Aztecs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Head coach Brady Hoke has a stout defensive unit that holds their opponents to just 19.5 Points-Per-Game and 319.5 total Yards-Per-Game — they should play much better tonight back at full strength. San Diego State also has a secret weapon to complement their defensive approach with punter Matt Araiza who averages 51.4 yards per punt this season — and he has 36 punts that landed inside their 20-yard line. UTSA may be due for a letdown after winning their conference championship. The Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win against a Conference USA opponent. UTSA generated 556 total yards against the Hilltoppers in that triumph — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 525 total yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing at least three straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA running back Sincere McCormick has opted-out of this game to enter the NFL draft — the Roadrunners will miss his 3900 career rushing yards after he generated 1479 rushing yards this season with 15 touchdowns on 299 carries. They score 37.8 Points-Per-Game this year — but they play an angry Aztecs team that has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games against teams who score at least 34 PPG. 20* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the San Diego State Aztecs (223) minus the points versus the UTSA Roadrunners (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (337) and the Los Angeles Rams (338). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-8) has won two games in a row with their 33-13 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-23 upset victory at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Seahawks generated 453 yards of offense against the Texans — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Seattle did allow 380 yards to Houston — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. And in their last 8 games in December, the Under is 5-2-1. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Rams do get Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey back from the COVID list to bolster their defense. They return home to SoFi Stadium — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total. Los Angeles has also played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 10* NFL Tuesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (337) and the Los Angeles Rams (338). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-8) has won two games in a row with their 33-13 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-23 upset victory at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: After struggling initially after his faster-than-expected return from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has regained his old form after completing 17 of 28 passes for 260 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Texans. Wilson is completing more than 70% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 109 in his last three starts. He has averaged 246 passing Yards-Per-Game in those contests with six touchdown passes and just one interception. The Seahawks are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While this game was originally postponed because of a COVID outbreak in the Rams’ locker room, it is now Seattle that has been hit harder with positive cases. The Seahawks are without a handful of players including wide receiver Tyler Lockett, running back Alex Collins, cornerback D.J. Reed, and right tackle Brandon Shell. The absence of Lockett hurts but Wilson still has D.J. Metcalf as a prime target. The loss of Collins is not as big a deal with the emergence of running back Rashaad Penny who rushed the ball 16 times for 137 yards last week. The line has moved to account for the players Seattle will not have tonight — but they still have Wilson who usually makes them dangerous underdogs. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Seattle is also a dangerous dog since they protect the football — they are tied for the fewest giveaways in the league. The national punditry seems to believe the Rams have solved all their problems after beating and covering the point spread in their last two games against Jacksonville and the Cardinals last week. We had LA against Arizona in that game — but the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Consistency has not been a hallmark for this team under head coach Sean McVay. And problems remain — a +2 net turnover margin helped them overcome betting outgained by 89 yards to the Cardinals. Arizona generated 447 yards against them — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Los Angeles still has many players out on the COVID list including starting tight end Tyler Higbee — but they do expect to get Von Miller back.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (339) and the Philadelphia Eagles (340). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-7) ended their four-game winning streak with a 27-20 loss to Dallas as a 6.5-point underdog on December 12th. Philadelphia (6-7) has won three of their last four games with a 33-18 victory in New York against the Jets as a 5-point favorite on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 47 combined points scored in the Football Team’s loss to the Cowboys included a fumble recovery touchdown for both teams. Washington only managed 224 total yards in the loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Football Team has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. Washington will be without Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen tonight as with players who did not get cleared to be removed from the COVID list — so it will be Garrett Gilbert under center after he was signed to the team on Friday. The Football Team is not going to ask Gilbert to do much tonight with his limited arm strength and lack of familiarity with the offense. Washington is going to attempt to run the football and shorten the game. The good news for the Football Team is they are getting their defensive line room back who tested positive for COVID including Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis. But they are missing skill position players on offense like wide receiver Curtis Samuel and third-down running back J.D. McKissic. They go on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 straight Unders in December. Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. The Eagles will be content to grind this game out as they have evolved into a running team with second-year pro Jalen Hurts under center. Philadelphia rushed for at least 176 yards in six straight games after generating 185 yards against the Jets — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when playing a team with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC East opponents — and Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (339) and the Philadelphia Eagles (340). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) lost their second straight game win a 45-30 loss at Green Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-7) won their third game in their last five contests with a 36-28 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago has lost seven of their last eight games — but they have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler tonight. The Bears have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago has suffered -4 and -3 net turnover margins in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. They host a Vikings team that is just 2-5 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Despite two interceptions last week, rookie quarterback Justin Fields has played well as the Bears’ starting quarterback. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and another 74 rushing yards. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game at home. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 points. And while Minnesota has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They allowed the Steelers to gain 375 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Vikings have gained 426 and 458 yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a losing record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on Monday Night Football — and Kirk Cousins has lost nine of his ten starts in prime-time. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Vikings at Soldier Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (331) and the Chicago Bears (332). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) won their third game in their last five contests with a 36-28 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football last week. Chicago (4-9) lost their second straight game win a 45-30 loss at Green Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chicago is dealing with some significant injuries on defense. Several players are on IR including linebacker Khalil Mack and Danny Trevathan. Defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebacker Roquan Smith are questionable. This attrition has played a large role in the Bears giving up 88 combined points in the last two weeks. They gave up 439 total yards to the Packers. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Despite two interceptions last week, rookie quarterback Justin Fields has played well as the Bears’ starting quarterback. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and another 74 rushing yards. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 straight Overs in December. Minnesota has played 47 of their last 67 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. They gained 458 yards against the Steelers last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh gained 375 yards against the Vikings' defense — and Minnesota has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings have allowed at least 28 points in four straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games. Minnesota has also scored at least 26 points in six straight contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring and allowing at least 24 points in three straight games. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their 9 road games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 20th last season when the Bears upset the Vikings on the road by a 33-27 score as a 3-point underdog. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC North. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (331) and the Chicago Bears (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (329). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-3) won their fourth straight game with their 33-27 victory against Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite last week. New Orleans (6-7) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 30-9 win at New York against the Jets as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in all four of their wins on this streak — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in at least three straight games. Tampa Bay is a perfect 6-0 at home with an average winning margin of +19.0 Points-Per-Game — so I am comfortable laying double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games - and they habit veered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. The Buccaneers do have Vita Vea back on their defensive line who helps them become very tough to run on. Tampa Bay is third in the NFL by allowing only 91.2 rushing YPG — it will be a challenge to run the ball against this team without a credible passing attack. The Saints’ pass attack has averaged only 180 YPG in their last three games with a low 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average and a 55.4% completion percentage. The Bucs will be able to put eight defenders in the box in this rematch. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win. A big concern for New Orleans in this game is their anemic offensive under quarterback Taysom Hill. The Saints are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging 313.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the NFC.

FINAL TAKE: The Halloween meeting between these teams was a game that Jameis Winston started but got injured in before Trevor Siemian came off the bench to play one of his best games in his career in unusual circumstances. Brady will be motivated to make a statement in these revenge circumstances — and the Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as a double-digit favorite. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (6-7) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 30-9 win at New York against the Jets as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-3) won their fourth straight game with their 33-27 victory against Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Jets to just 256 yards last week in a strong defensive effort. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Saints have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points, New Orleans has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they are allowing only 18.3 PPG and 300.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does a good job devising schemes against Tom Brady — his zone defense limits the effectiveness of the crossing routes that the Buccaneers love and New Orleans has the players to generate an inside pass rush which gets Brady out of his rhythm. The Saints contained Brady to completing just 60.8% of his passes which averaged only 6.05 Yards-Per-Attempt in their two meetings last season. Brady put up better numbers in their first meeting this season on October 31st — but he did throw two interceptions in a 36-27 upset loss when the Bucs were laying 3.5 points. The bigger concern for New Orleans in this game is their anemic offensive under quarterback Taysom Hill. The Saints are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging 313.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Hill is an effective runner — but he is limited in the passing game. New Orleans operates an offensive akin to the Cam Newton offenses with Carolina — and that does mean longer possessions of offense as they attempt to win the Time of Possession battle. The Saints were on offense for 38:52 minutes against the Jets after rushing for 202 yards — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay did allow 173 rushing yards last week to the Bills — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. The Buccaneers do have Vita Vea back on their defensive line who helps them become very tough to run on. Tampa Bay is third in the NFL by allowing only 91.2 rushing YPG — it will be a challenge to run the ball against this team without a credible passing attack. The Saints’ pass attack has averaged only 180 YPG in their last three games with a low 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average and a 55.4% completion percentage. The Bucs will be able to put eight defenders in the box in this rematch. Josh Allen led a Bills offense to average 6.4 Yards-Per-Play last week — but Tampa Bay has played 6 straight Unders after a game where they allowed at least 6.0 YPP. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against NFL opponents — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Halloween meeting between these teams was a game that Jameis Winston started but got injured in before Trevor Siemian came off the bench to play one of his best games in his career in unusual circumstances. These teams have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing in Tampa Bay. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Mistake ... wrong game.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (313) and the New York Giants (314). THE SITUATION: Dallas (9-4) has won two in a row after their 27-20 win at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (4-9) lost their third game in their last four in a 37-21 loss at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 9.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas held the Football Team to just 224 total yards in the victory last week. They have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 30 points. The Cowboys have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring only 23.9 PPG — a far cry from their 29.2 PPG scoring average overall this season. The offense will be without their glue on the offensive line in left tackle Tyron Smith — and running back Tony Pollard is questionable with a foot injury.  The Cowboys have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored. New York only managed 316 yards last week with backup Mike Glennon under center. He completed only 17 of 36 passes for 191 yards in the loss. The Under is 9-3-1 in the Giants’ last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Under is 11-3-1 in New York’s last 15 games after a point spread loss. The Giants allowed the Chargers to gain 423 yards — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. New York enters that game not allowing more than 20 points in five of their previous six games. They return home where they score just 16.5 PPG and average 288.7 total YPG — but they do hold their guests to just 18.0 PPG. The Under is 10-1-1 in the Giants’ last 12 games at home — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Daniel Jones is out once again — so the Giants offense is again in the hands of Glennon. Rookie wide receiver and playmaker Kadarius Toney is also unavailable on the COVID list. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (313) and the New York Giants (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 53-21 loss to Western Kentucky as a 1-point underdog on November 27th. UL-Lafayette (12-1) won the Sun Belt Championship Game with their 24-16 upset win against Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall should play well after their embarrassing loss to the Hilltoppers. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss by 21 or more points against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 28 or more points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Allowing Western Kentucky to score on a 43-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown did not help the Marshall cause under rookie head coach Charlies Huff. Despite their 7-5 record, this team is outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +82.8 net Yards-Per-Game. In their six games away from home, the Thundering Herd outscored their opponents by +16.5 PPG and +62.0 net YPG. Led by second-year freshman quarterback Grant Wells, the Thundering Herd ranks 27th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. UL-Lafayette finally beat their White Whale in Appalachian State in a conference championship game after falling twice against them prior under head coach Billy Napier. Their head coach has since moved on to Gainesville to begin his journey as the head coach for the University of Florida — and he took a handful of assistants with him including defensive coordinator Patrick Toney. Co-offensive coordinator Michael Desormeaux takes over as the interim head coach. I suspect an emotional letdown is coming for a team that appeared disinterested at times after losing their opener to Texas. The following week, they only beat Nicholls State by three points. They later defeated South Alabama, Arkansas State, Georgia State, and UL-Monroe by five points or less despite being a double-digit favorite on each occasion. As it is, the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Louisiana has not committed a turnover in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in at least three straight games. Running back Chris Smith is another key piece to the team that won the conference title who will not be in the Big Easy as he has opted-out of this game. This is a team that has not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Conference USA opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns have not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (7-6) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory at Houston as a 10-point favorite on December 5th. New England (9-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 14-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 games after a double-digit win against an AFC South Rival. The Colts generated 389 yards against Texas to outgain them by +248 net yards. Indy has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts' offense has started to crank with Carson Wentz more comfortable running head coach Frank Reich’s offense. Indianapolis has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. Since Week Six, this team leads the NFL in points scored and touchdowns and they are second in rushing yards. They held Houston to just 141 total yards — and they are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They return home where they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts may only have two wins in their seven games against teams with a winning record — but they have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. New England had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not score more than 14 points. Some might be surprised that the red hot Patriots are the underdogs in this game — but it relates to rookie quarterback Mac Jones’ home/road splits this season. At home, Jones is averaging 267.1 passing YPG with 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions. He has a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in those seven home games. But in his six games on the road, Jones sees his QBR drop to 87.7. Even after tossing out his 2 of 3 passing performance in the wind in Buffalo in his last game, Jones is still only averaging 196 passing YPG in his other five road games with just three touchdown passes and three interceptions. New England ran their way to victory against the Bills in that game as they gained 222 yards on the ground. But the Patriots are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in December under head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots will be without Damien Harris in this game as he is out with a hamstring injury.  

FINAL TAKE: The Colts surge has been led by running back Jonathan Taylor — they are 7-0 straight-up when he rushes for at least 100 yards. The Patriots have a great defense — but they are vulnerable against the run as they allow 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry and rank 18th in the NFL by giving up 114 rushing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). THE SITUATION: New England (9-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 14-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog. Indianapolis (7-6) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory at Houston as a 10-point favorite on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. New England held the Bills to just 230 total yards in that game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 250 total yards. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has not been as impressive when playing away from home. At Gillette Stadium, Jones is averaging 267.1 passing YPG with 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions. He has a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in those seven home games. But in his six games on the road, Jones sees his QBR drop to 87.7. Even after tossing out his 2 of 3 passing performance in the wind in Buffalo in his last game, Jones is still only averaging 196 passing YPG in his other five road games with just three touchdown passes and three interceptions. New England has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Indianapolis held the Texans to just 141 total yards in their last game to outgain them by +248 net yards. They have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least 200 net yards. The Colts return home where they have played 37 of their last 54 games Under the Total in the final four weeks of the season — and they have played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: I suspect both teams will attempt to take the air out of the ball by running the football and burning time of the clock to keep their defenses fresh. Even ignoring the wind game in Buffalo — the Patriots have averaged 34.5 rushing attempts in their last four road games. The Colts have averaged 38 rushing attempts per game in their last three contests. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (211) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (212) in the Independence Bowl. THE SITUATION: UAB (8-4) won their third game in their last four with their 42-25 win against UTEP as a 14-point favorite on November 26th. BYU (10-2) won their fifth straight game with a 35-31 victory at USC as an 8-point favorite on November 27th. This game is being played at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB should build off the momentum of the close of their good regular-season finish. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Blazers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games under head coach Bill Clark when getting at least two weeks to prepare for the game. This could very well be Clark’s best team at UAB in his six years with the program. He returned 17 starters from last season’s team that finished 6-3 but did not get to play in the Gasparilla Bowl when it got canceled because of COVID. The UAB offense scores 29.4 PPG while averaging a healthy 5.9 Yards-Per-Play. They rank fifth in the nation in Expected Points per rushing attempt — and they have the 11th highest rush rate on offense in the country. The Blazers should be able to run the ball against this Cougars’ defense that allows their opponents to average 4.4 Yards-Per-Carr and who rank 93rd in the FBS in Rush Success Rate allowed. The UAB defense is stout — they are 19th in the nation by allowing only 4.8 YPP. They hold opposing rushers to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank third in the nation in Rushing Explosiveness allowed. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. This is the Cougars’ third straight game on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 games playing their last two games on the road. BYU has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning their last two games on the road. They did allow the Trojans to gain 458 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they have scored at least 34 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. BYU was expected to take a step back this season after losing five players to the NFL draft from the team that finished 11-1 last year against a schedule that did not include a Power 5 opponent. A +0.83 net turnover margin that was 10th best in the nation helped. But the Cougars were also fortunate to win all four of their games that were decided by one scoring possession. They scored 33.5 Points-Per-Game but saw that scoring average fall by -4.8 PPG and their yardage plummet by -24.7 net Yards-Per-Game when playing away from home. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored — and UAB has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. 20* CFB UAB-BYU ABC-TV Special with the UAB Blazers (211) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (6-6) became bowl eligible to conclude their regular season with a 27-17 win at FAU as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. Toledo (7-5) is on a three-game winning streak after a 49-14 win against Akron as a 28.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee lost four of their first six games before salvaging their season by winning four of their last six games. Head coach Rick Stockstill hit the transfer portal in the offseason to inject more talent into what has been a sleepy program as of late. But his teams typically end strong — the Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season. They outscored their last three opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game and they outgained these foes by +94.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Stabilizing play at quarterback has been a season-long journey. Former NC State QB Bailey Hockman left the team in September after having a baby. Redshirt junior QB Chase Cunningham suffered a season-ending leg injury in early November. Freshman QB Nicholas Vattiato started the final four games — and after a rough debut at Western Kentucky, he has since completed 63 of 89 passes for 553 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception in his last three games. He was benched for sophomore Mike Diliello in the game against the Owls — and it was Diliello who led the comeback win by completing 12 of 19 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown pass. Diliello adds mobility to the offense — he ran 12 times for 43 yards with a touchdown. Both QBs hold play this afternoon — and a quarterback competition in a bowl game building into the following season is not a bad thing in these situations. Middle Tennessee is a good defensive team — they rank 24th in the nation by allowing only 5.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Blue Raiders also rank sixth in the nation by averaging +0.92 net turnovers per game. And while fumble luck played a role, the Middle Tennessee defense was fifth in the nation by picking off 16 passes. The Blue Raiders did not force a turnover in their win at FAU — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Toledo failed to meet their high expectations this season after returning 21 starters. They were 0-4 in one-possession games. So while this could have been a 10-win team, how motivated will this group be in Bahamas now? As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. And while the Rockets outgained the Zips by +217 net yards by generating 582 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +225 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards. Toledo has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning at least three games in a row. Toledo is a program that is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee is playing in their first bowl game since 2018 — and they have not won a bowl game since 2017. They are a team looking to build momentum into next season while this is a coda for many of these Rocket players. High winds up to 15 miles per hour will likely contribute to chaos — and chaos tends to help big underdogs. 10* CFB Toledo-Middle Tennessee ESPN Special with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (301) and the Los Angeles Chargers (302). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-4) has won six straight games after their 48-9 win against Las Vegas as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (8-5) won their third game in their last four with their 37-21 win against the New York Giants as a 9.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 7 straight Unders on the road after a double-digit victory. Kansas City has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Chiefs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Kansas City may not have pass rusher, Chris Jones, tonight after testing positive for COVID earlier this week. There is an outside chance that Jones can be cleared to play tonight if he is asymptomatic with two negative tests — if so, then the Under looks even better. But the Chiefs defense is playing better for reasons outside of Jones moving back to defensive tackle since the midseason acquisition of defensive end Melvin Ingram. Year after year, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo oversees the steady improvement of his unit as the season moves on. Kansas City has held their last three opponents to just 9.0 Points-Per-Game and 323.0 total Yards-Per-Game. While they will miss Jones, the defense will not fall apart without him if he does not play. Spagnuolo’s group has held their divisional opponents to just 15.5 PPG and 336.3 total YPG  in their four games this season. They held the Raiders to just 44 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Justin Herbert completed 23 of 31 passes for 275 yards in the win against the Giants — but the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers stay at home where they have played 19 of their last 25 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Under is also 14-6-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles’ defense has been playing better as of late after holding their last three opponents to 23.7 PPG and 324.7 total YPG — that is -2.1 PPG and -23.7 net YPG below their season averages. They have also held their three divisional games this season to 22.0 PPG and 327.3 YPG. The Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC West foes. The Under is also 20-9-1 in their last 30 games in December. Los Angeles’ offense is not at full strength with their star rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater out tonight and running back Austin Ekeler not at 100% with a high ankle sprain. Ekeler will play but not get a full workload.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (301) and the Los Angeles Chargers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (302) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (301). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-5) won their third game in their last four with their 37-21 win against the New York Giants as a 9.5-point favorite last week. Kansas City (9-4) has won six straight games after their 48-9 win against Las Vegas as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: I thought Los Angeles was in a letdown situation last week against a Giants team that had been playing well on defense — but the Chargers dominated with 423 yards of offense which helped them win the yardage battle by +107 net yards. Los Angeles had a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Chargers stay at home where they are scoring 30.6 Points-Per-Game and averaging 408.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. The Chargers are not at full strength with rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater out due to his being on the COVID list. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was out with COVID last week — but he is back. Running back Austin Ekeler should also be able to play despite an ankle injury. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Chiefs benefited from a +5 net turnover margin to easily defeat the Raiders last week. Kansas City has won the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in five straight games. The Chiefs will likely be without defensive tackle Chris Jones who is on the COVID list with the team not optimistic he can clear the protocols in time for tonight’s game. The Kansas City’s defense made their transformation this season when Jones moved back to defensive tackle after the team picked up defensive end Melvin Ingram from Baltimore. The Chiefs will also be without starting linebacker Willie Gay, Jr. who is on the COVID list, and starting cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is dealing with a personal family issue. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the Chargers. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (302) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (129) and the Arizona Cardinals (130). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) ended a three-game losing streak with a 37-5 victory against Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (10-2) has won two games in a row after their 33-22 win at Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams held the Jaguars to just 197 yards in their victory last week. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a win by at least 21 points in their last game. The Rams have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Los Angeles has also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. And in their last 10 games against fellow NFC West rivals, the Rams have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Arizona has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Cardinals have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while Arizona’s victory was a 23-13 win at Seattle, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by double-digits. The Cardinals return home where they are scoring only 22.6 PPG and averaging just 335.6 total YPG. Arizona has played 19 of their last 28 home games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 8 straight Unders on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals won the first meeting between these two teams by a 37-20 score in Los Angeles as a 3.5-point underdog. The Rams have played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (129) and the Arizona Cardinals (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) ended a three-game losing streak with a 37-5 victory against Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (10-2) has won two games in a row after their 33-22 win at Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles dominated the Jaguars last week by outgaining them by +221 net yards. The Rams have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. Los Angeles covered the point spread for the first time in their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. What was encouraging from the Jaguars game was that Los Angeles ran the ball 28 times for 128 yards. That was the most rushing attempts and yards for the Rams in four games. They will be without Darrell Henderson tonight with him being on the COVID list — but Sony Michel is capable in taking on the lead back role. Their 6.3 Yards-Per-Play average is the best in the NFL — and they average 6.3 YPP on the road with the offensive execution not dropping off. Los Angeles is 4-2 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Rams are also 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games in the NFC — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December. Arizona has won three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7games after winning three of their last four games. The Cardinals host this game where they are just 3-2 this season with an average winning margin of +1.4 net Points-Per-Game. They are only scoring 22.6 PPG at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals won the first meeting between these two teams by a 37-20 score in Los Angeles as a 3.5-point underdog. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cardinals — and they have covered their last 6 games against them in Arizona. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-8) lost their sixth contest in their last seven games after their 33-22 loss at home to Arizona as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (9-3) won their second game in their last three with a 36-287 upset win against the Los Angeles Rams as a 2-point underdog on November 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Bears' defense for the loss against the Cardinals — despite injuries, they only surrendered 14 first downs and 257 total yards to Arizona. Giving up 192 yards in returns yards on special teams played a big role. That is something that will be easier for Chicago to clean up this week. The Bears have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is holding their last three opponents to just 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game. But the Bears are scoring only 16.8 Points-Per-Game and averaging 298.8 total YPG — and now they go back on the road where those numbers drop to 14.3 PPG and 287.3 total YPG. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Packers gained 399 yards against the Rams defense two weeks ago, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles gained 353 yards against them — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Packers stay at home at Lambeau Field where they are holding their opponents to just 14.4 PPG. And the dynamic offense led by Aaron Rodgers is only scoring 27.8 PPG at home while averaging just 23.6 PPG on the season. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised to see the Packers running the ball a ton tonight as they look to rev up their two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon for the playoffs — and that likely means fewer offensive possessions. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams won are winning 25-40% of their games — and Chicago has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (127) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-8) lost their sixth contest in their last seven games after their 33-22 loss at home to Arizona as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (9-3) won their second game in their last three with a 36-287 upset win against the Los Angeles Rams as a 2-point underdog on November 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago outgained the Cardinals by +72 net yards last week but a -4 net turnover margin dug them into a hole they could not climb out. Andy Dalton threw four interceptions in the game — and he will not be playing tonight with Justin Fields recovered from the rib injury that kept him out last week. Fields is playing better since offensive coordinator Bill Lazor took over calling the plays for him — he is not allergic to calling plays that take advantage of Fields’ mobility. The Bears have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in their last three games. Chicago signed fullback Ben Mason off the Baltimore practice squad which is a good indicator that they are going to offer Fields an extra blocker and threat with the football out of the backfield after he thrived in a similar role in college at the University of Michigan. The Bears have outgained their last three opponents by +88.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week. And while the Packers have covered the point spread in ten of their twelve games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least eight of their last ten games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Green Bay may be 5-0 at home — but they are only outgaining their guests by +33.8 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained only 323 total yards in their 24-14 win at Chicago on October 13th. While the Bears may be getting outscored by -7.1 net PPG this season, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home in the second half of the season when hosting a team getting outscored by at least -6.0 PPG. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (127) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has lost two of their last three games after a 20-9 loss at Miami as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of three with a 41-22 upset win at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Giants’ last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Giants have only scored 32 combined points in their last three games — and they will have backup quarterback Mike Glennon under center this afternoon with Daniel Jones out with a neck injury. The Giants stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has seen the Under go a decisive 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Los Angeles returns home where they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total when favored. The Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 20-8-1 in Los Angeles’ last 29 games in December — and New York has played 5 straight Unders in December. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-9 loss at Miami as a 6.5-point underdog last week. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games with their 41-22 win at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite their losing record, New York is playing much better on defense as of late. They have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 20 points. The Giants have forced multiple turnovers in five of their last eight games. Since Week Seven, New York is allowing just 16.0 Points-Per-Game and 4.8 Yards-Per-Play which both rank fourth-best in the NFL during that span. Opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 70.7 since Week Seven as well — the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The Giants should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. New York has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. With quarterback Daniel Jones still nursing a neck injury, the Giants will have Mike Glennon under center once again this week. Glennon was just OK last week — he completed 23 of 44 passes for 187 yards with an interception. One of the problems for the Giants is that Jones is not putting up much better numbers at this point in his career. Glennon is a capable backup with a completion percentage of 60.8% in 1049 career passing attempts. He has 44 touchdown passes to just 28 interceptions. The Giants have been ravaged with injuries but they are getting healthier with Saquon Barkley getting 17 touches last week in his third week back since missing over a month. It was encouraging for New York to limit the Dolphins to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have been reliable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Los Angeles has been inconsistent this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers are also only 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points. After taking a 24-0 lead against the Bengals, Los Angeles let the Bengals back in the game with Cincinnati scoring a potential game-tying touchdown before they missed the two-point conversion. The Chargers then recovered a fumble on their 39-yard line which they returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to take a nine-point lead and re-take control of the game. That upset victory was Los Angeles’ first point spread cover in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Chargers return home where they are only 3-3 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home when favored. The Chargers’ challenge is complicated with a COVID outbreak in their locker room. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out and wide receiver Mike Williams is among a handful of players questionable as they look to clear quarantine protocols.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Giants’ defense should keep them in this game against a Chargers’ team that had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before the Bengals only scored 22 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-7) has lost two games in a row after their 29-27 upset loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (6-5-1) snapped a three-game winless streak with a 20-19 upset win against Baltimore as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has a losing record despite outscoring and out-gaining their opponents this season. All seven of their losses have been by one-scoring possession. They have scored at least 26 points in five straight games. This is as near a “gotta have it” game for the Vikings as there will be. They have typically played well under situations like this under head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 42 of their last 61 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a division rival. And in their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less, the Vikings have covered the point spread 4 times. Minnesota has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. Quarterback Kirk Cousins will not have wide receiver Adam Thielen tonight with him being out with an ankle injury — but his productivity outside the Red Zone has declined this season. Dalvin Cook is a game-time decision to return to action earlier than expected from his shoulder injury — but Alexander Mattison is a very good running back if he does play. Cousins is enjoying a great season, albeit under the radar. He is completing 68.4% of his passes for over 3300 yards with 25 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. He has not tossed an interception in 246 straight pass attempts. Pittsburgh may be due for an emotional letdown after grinding out a win against their arch-rivals in the Ravens. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Steelers go back on the road for the third time in their last four games — and doing so on a short week will be a challenge. Pittsburgh has surrendered 41 points in each of their last two games away from home — and they are giving up 27.0 PPG and 389.4 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Injuries have made things worse for the Steel Curtain — they are without cornerback Joe Haden and linebacker Robert Spillane. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have been a disappointment in losing seven closes games this season — but they have finally completed a difficult stretch with four of their last five games being on the road. The last time they played at home, they upset Green Bay — and this will be an angry and embarrassed team after they shipped the Lions their first win of the year. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-5-1) snapped a three-game winless streak with a 20-19 upset win against Baltimore as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Minnesota (5-7) has lost two games in a row after their 29-27 upset loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers held the Ravens to just 326 total yards last week despite their defense being on the field for 36:30 minutes in that game. The Under is 8-2-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory against an AFC North rival. Now the Steelers go back on the road for the third game in their last four contests. They are averaging just 301.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. The Under is 37-13-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 51 games on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 range. Minnesota has played 17 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total after an upset loss. The Vikings have also played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after losing two in a row on the road. They return home where they are just 19.8 PPG. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total for Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Buffalo Bills (476). THE SITUATION: New England (8-4) won their sixth straight game in a row with their 36-13 victory against Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (7-4) has won two of their last three games after their 31-6 win at New Orleans as a 7-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: My initial thought for MNF was with the Over but I do like to make final decisions with fresh eyes. The biggest questions for tonight's game are (1) how significant of an impact will the weather have on the game and (2) how significant is the line movement in reaction to the weather? After waiting for the early afternoon forecast to make my final calls, the temperates appear destined to be in the 20s (wind chill in the teens) with winds 25-35 MPH and gusting up to 40 MPH. Precipitation does not seem likely by game-time -- so probably not blizzard conditions. The wind negatively impacts field goal attempts and deeper passes. But the conditions also promote chaos for turnovers and special teams. I think the number has dropped too low -- so I am sticking with the over (and if I was leaning Under initially, then the low number would not scare me off). New England gained 394 yards in their victory against the Titans last week — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots also forced four turnovers last week (+4 net turnover margin) — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after enjoying at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last game. New England has won the turnover battle in each game of their six-game winning streak — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after having at least a +1 net turnover margin in five straight games. Turnovers could play a role in getting the final score of this game into the 40s. Buffalo has seen the Over go 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after a straight-up win. The Bills held the Saints to just 190 total yards last week — but they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They return home where they are scoring 28.0 PPG and averaging 392.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo has not played a game with a Total this low all season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total with the Total in the 38.5 to 42 range.

FINAL TAKE: New England has played 5 straight games Over the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Buffalo Bills (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-4) has won two of their last three games after their 31-6 win at New Orleans as a 7-point favorite last week. New England (8-4) won their sixth straight game in a row with their 36-13 victory against Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thought for this situation was to prefer Buffalo but I do like to make final decisions with fresh eyes. The biggest questions for tonight's game are (1) how significant of an impact will the weather have on the game and (2) how significant is the line movement in reaction to the weather? After waiting for the early afternoon forecast to make my final calls, the temperates appear destined to be in the 20s (wind chill in the teens) with winds 25-35 MPH and gusting up to 40 MPH. Precipitation does not seem likely by game-time -- so probably not blizzard conditions. I think there is a significant edge at Quarterback tonight. Josh Allen played four years in the cold at Wyoming. His big arm can cut through the wind a bit more -- and he has a few more years of big games under his belt. I like Mac Jones but his arm strength is not one of his best qualities (accuracy, decision-making, intellect) -- and his background is Florida then Alabama. Will these be the coldest temperatures he has ever played in? As it is, the New England offense only averages 309.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road — a drop-off of -46.3 net YPG from their season average. Jones averages only 178 passing YPG in his five starts on the road with his 231 passing yards at Houston being his season-high away from home. The Patriots' recent winning streak has been fueled by them winning the turnover battle in each of those six games. They have forced four turnovers in two straight games while committing just one turnover themselves in those two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in each of their last two games. New England surrendered 270 rushing yards to a Titans team without Derrick Henry last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a victory by 14 or more points. The Bills are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Buffalo gained 361 yards against the Saints last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Bills held New Orleans to just 190 total yards — and they are 9-1-2 ATS after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo held the Saints to just 44 rushing yards as well — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots will lean heavily on running the football on the road and in these weather conditions — but the Bills are fourth in the NFL by allowing just 3.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Buffalo returns home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 Points-Per-Game and outgains them by +135.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (457) and the Kansas City (458). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-5) has won three of their last four games after their 28-13 upset win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (7-4) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 4 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Under is also 15-5-1 in Denver’s last 21 games after not allowing more than 14  points in their last game. The Broncos have held four of their last five opponents to 17 or fewer points. They are third in the league by allowing just 17.8 Points-Per-Game. They also have the third-best opposing quarterback Passer Rating of 82.7 in the NFL. They go on the road tonight where they are holding their home hosts to just 17.2 PPG and 312.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. But the Broncos' offense is limited with Teddy Bridgewater under center. They are scoring just 20.7 PPG — and they have scored under 20 points in five of their last eight games. Bridgewater completed 11 of 18 passes for 129 yards last week. While a quarterback that is allergic to taking chances is a good fit with a defense-first team, his unwillingness to throw the ball down the field makes it difficult to stay competitive with a team that averages 25.5 PPG. Denver has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after a bye week. The Chiefs host this game where they are only scoring a surprising 21.5 PPG this season. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Mahomes has been in a mini-slump this season after being frustrated with the two-high safety cover-2 looks he is facing. But it is not just that — defenses have finally realized that blitzing Mahomes is too dangerous a proposition since he can evade the rush and torch the defense with Travis Kelce or Tyreeke Hill getting a few more seconds to evade fewer defenders. It is the cover-2 combined with the standard pass rush which is frustrating Mahomes. The Chiefs have not scored more than 20 points in four of their last five games and five of their last seven. But Kansas City is on a winning streak due to the improved play of their defense. Acquiring linebacker defensive end Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh allowed Chris Jones to move back inside to defensive tackle where he prefers — and he has thrived. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 10.0 PPG and just 292.0 total YPG. Don’t count out a defense coached by Steve Spagnuolo to improve as the season moves on. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 14-5-1 in Denver’s last 20 games against AFC West foes — and the Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (457) and the Kansas City (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City (458) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (457). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-4) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Denver (6-5) has won three of their last four games after their 28-13 upset win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City has won their last two games by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games by 10 or more points. The Chiefs gained 370 yards against the Cowboys' defense — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City is on a winning streak due to the improved play of their defense. Acquiring linebacker defensive end Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh allowed Chris Jones to move back inside to defensive tackle where he prefers — and he has thrived. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 10.0 PPG and just 292.0 total YPG. Don’t count out a defense coached by Steve Spagnuolo to improve as the season moves on. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in December. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Chiefs stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Denver is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a win by 14 or more points. The Broncos offense is limited with Teddy Bridgewater under center. They are scoring just 20.7 PPG — and they have scored under 20 points in five of their last eight games. Bridgewater completed 11 of 18 passes for 129 yards last week. While a quarterback that is allergic to taking chances is a good fit with a defense-first team, his unwillingness to throw the ball down the field makes it difficult to stay competitive with a team that averages 25.5 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City (458) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (471) and the Los Angeles Rams (472). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-9) has lost three games in a row after their 21-14 loss to Atlanta as a 1-point underdog last week. Los Angeles (7-4) has lost three games in a row as well after their 36-28 upset loss at Green Bay as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a point spread loss. Additionally, Jacksonville has palled 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Jaguars did generate 357 total yards last week — but they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has not scored more than 17 points in five straight games. They are scoring just 15.7 PPG this season — and they are averaging 13.7 PPG in their last three games. The Jags defense is playing better — the 320.0 Yards-Per-Game they are allowing in their last three games is -40.3 net YPG below their season average. Jacksonville has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Jaguars have also played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Rams are slumping on offense under some stagnant play-calling from “offensive genius” Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford. Los Angeles is scoring only 18.0 PPG and averaging just 326.0 total YPG in their last three contests. Stafford has thrown pick-sixes in each of those games which provides context for the 31.7 PPG they are allowing in their last three games. The Rams defense has held their last three opponents to just 309.3 total YPG. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: After rushing the ball at least 23 times in their first six games, the Rams have only run the ball more than 21 times once in their last five games. Look for McVay to get back to running the ball more to steady Stafford and the slumping Los Angeles offense — and that will burn more time off the clock after being on offense for just 20:20 minutes against the Packers last week. The Under is 22-8-1 in the Rams’ last 31 games when favored. Jacksonville has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (471) and the Los Angeles Rams (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 28-13 upset loss at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last week. Cincinnati (7-4) has won two in a row after their 41-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles outgained the Broncos last week by +55 net yards after holding Denver to just 302 yards. Denver benefited from a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown to flip the score. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles is playing close games — two of their losses were by just three points apiece. They are outgaining their opponents by +33.6 net Yards-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Cincinnati dominated their arch-rivals in the Steelers last week which may set them up for an emotional letdown. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while Cincinnati has scored at least 73 combined points in their last two weeks, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. Led by Joe Mixon, the Bengals rushed for 198 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chargers give up a lot of rushing yards — but that is because they are focusing on defending the pass. Los Angeles only allows 331.2 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Cincinnati is only outgaining their opponents by +7.3 net YPG despite their 7-4 record — and they are getting outgained when playing at home. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road (Chargers: 3-2 on the road). Four of Cincinnati’s wins have come against Detroit, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh twice. They are just 3-4 against the rest of their competition. And Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times in the last four weeks — the second-most of all quarterbacks during that span. Now here comes the Chargers’ Joey Bosa.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 35-16-4 ATS in their last 55 road games as an underdog. 25* AFC Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (321) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (322) in the Big Ten Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-2) has won four straight games after their 28-21 upset win at Nebraska as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Michigan (11-1) upset Ohio State by a 42-27 score as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: The Wolverines slayed their proverbial white whale in the Buckeyes last week. I expect an emotional letdown — and then the pressure will kick in that losing this game will spoil their college playoff aspirations. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset victory. The Wolverines have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games on the road after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while their win against Ohio State came after a 59-18 win at Maryland, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after playing at least two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Michigan did allow 394 passing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 375 passing yards in their last contest. The Wolverines allow 17.2 Points-Per-Game and 319.4 total Yards-Per-Game — but those numbers rise to 23.6 PPG and 345.4 total YPG when playing away from the Big House. Nebraska scored 29 points against them and Michigan State put up 37 points against them with those games not in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after a win on the road in their last game. Scoring is the biggest concern for this team — but head coach Kirk Ferentz is turning to Spencer Petras as his starter who has a better deep ball. The Hawkeyes have been better on offense in their last four games where they are averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Play and 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry — as opposed to the 4.0 YPP and 2.8 rushing YPC averages in their first eight games. Iowa is elite with their other two phases of the game with their defense and special teams. They hold their opponents to 17.3 PPG — and they are ninth in the nation in points allowed per drive. They generate points from their defense and special teams units — they have six non-offensive touchdowns this season and that is not a fluke under Ferentz. The Hawkeyes are third in the nation with a +13 net turnover margin. The analytics community is too quick to consider this “luck” — but forcing turnovers is a skill that is taught. Where the bouncing (or tipped) ball goes can be a function of luck — but forcing the fumble or tipped pass is a skill. Iowa has won the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. ESPN’s SP+ metrics rate Iowa’s special teams as the fifth-best unit in the nation. This formula for success is why Iowa is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has not been a double-digit underdog since 2017. Michigan only beat teams with a similar profile — Nebraska and Penn State — by 3 and 4 points. Mistakes and turnovers were the reason why they lost to Michigan State. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games when favored on a neutral field. Michigan just wants to escape with a win — covering doesn’t matter. Expect plenty of nervy moments for the Wolverines tonight. 20* CFB Iowa-Michigan Fox-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (321) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (313) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (314) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Houston (11-1) has won eleven straight games after their 45-17 win at UConn as a 32-point favorite on Saturday. Cincinnati (12-0) remained unbeaten with their 35-13 win at East Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: I expect this to be a nervy game for the Bearcats with their spot in the college football playoff likely secured with a victory. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least seen in a row. After a stretch of games that included one-score wins against Navy and Tulsa, Cincinnati has outgained their last three opponents by at least +150 yards. But the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last three opponents by at least 150 net yards. Cincinnati has shown some cracks in their armor when playing teams who can get to the quarterback. Desmond Ridder has been sacked 18 times this season — and he was sacked eight times in their bowl game loss against Georgia last year. The Bearcats score 46 PPG when Ridder faces a pressure rate no higher than 15% — but that scoring average drops by 11 PPG in the games when he faced a pressure rate higher than 15%. Here comes Houston that has a pressure rate of 40% on the quarterback. The Cougars are sixth in the nation by sacking the quarterback in 10% of their dropbacks. Houston is second in the nation in Havoc Rate and fifth in Pressure Rate. They have seven players with at least 3.5 sacks — so this is a balanced unit that does not rely heavily on the blitz to apply pressure. Overall, “Sack Avenue” is fourth in the nation with 41 team sacks. Houston is seventh in the nation by holding their opponents to 4.6 Yards-Per-Play. They are tough against the run and the pass — they rank 12th in the nation in opponent Rush Success Rate and second in the FBS in opponent Pass Success Rate. The Cougars' offense is dynamic as well as they have scored at least 40 points seven times. Quarterback Clayton Tune is completing 69% of his passes and averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. In his last seven starts, Tune has 19 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. In their eleven-game winning streak, Houston has outscored their opponents by +22.1 PPG. They gained 472 yards last week against the Huskies — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win where they did not cover the point spread. Houston is also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen assembled a bunch of talent taking full advantage of the transfer portal started by his de-facto tank job in 2019 when he redshirted a number of his players before using up their eligibility. The fruits of those efforts are now being realized. Cincinnati is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December. 20* CFB Houston-Cincinnati ABC-TV Special with Houston Cougars (313) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311) in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (11-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-16 win against UL-Monroe as a 21.5-point favorite on Saturday. Appalachian State (10-2) has won six straight games after their 27-3 win against Georgia Southern as a 24.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: This will be head coach Billy Napier’s last game with Louisiana before he takes on his new job as head coach of the Florida Gators. Napier has been pulling double-duty this week getting his new staff together in Gainesville while beginning his recruiting for Florida — and that may scare off some bettors. His coordinators are still on the case for this game — and Napier is quite familiar with Appalachian State. I see things in the opposite way — this contest offers Napier and his players the culmination of a long journey where beating the Mountaineers in the championship game and winning a Sun Belt championship is the final goal for this program. The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost twice to Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game under Napier before not getting the chance to play for the title last season against Coastal Carolina due to a COVID outbreak canceling the game. UL-Louisiana has appeared to lack motivation at times this season. They have five wins against inferior opponents by just one scoring possession — however, they also crushed Appalachian State and Liberty in statement victories by 28 points apiece. Being listed as the underdog should stick anger them — and they have pulled the upset in five of their last seven games in the role of the underdog under Napier. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They get to host this game where they are 6-0 with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game and a ++143.8 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Ragin’ Cajuns hold their guest to just 14.0 PPG and 301.5 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 10 points in their last game against a conference opponent. They held the Eagles to just 194 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. And in their last 12 games after winning at least five straight games, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games. The Mountaineers play on the road for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette finally defeated Appalachian State last December in a regular-season game to avenge those two previous losses in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in 2018 and 2019. The Ragin’ Cajuns followed that up with a 41-13 throttling of the Mountaineers at home on October 12th this season in a game where they outgained them by +244 yards despite being a +4.5-point underdog. Appalachian State has revenge on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss. The dog has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in this series. The Louisiana players love Napier — I think they play hard for him today in a program-defining moment. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (10-2) has won six straight games after their 27-3 win against Georgia Southern as a 24.5-point favorite last week. UL-Lafayette (11-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-16 win against UL-Monroe as a 21.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Appalachian State held the Eagles to just 194 total yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers allow only 18.9 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 12th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 315.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense ranks third in the nation in Tackles-For-Loss — and they are 12th in Opponents Success Rate. They have held their last three opponents to single digits. They play on the road for this one where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 to 52. UL-Lafayette has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Ragin’ Cajuns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. UL-Louisiana allows just 18.5 PPG. They host this game where they have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total. The Ragin’ Cajuns have also played 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing at UL-Louisiana. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (305) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) comes off a 38-29 win against Oregon State as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Utah (9-3) has won five straight games after their 28-13 victory against Colorado as a 24-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon gets the opportunity to redeem themselves from a 38-7 loss to the Utes in Salt Lake City back on November 20th. That was probably the Ducks’ worst game of the season. The wheels fell off in the second quarter where Utah scored two touchdowns to take a 21-0 lead before returning a punt for 78 yards at the end of the half to go into the locker room down 28-0. We had the Utes that game — I liked the situation for them then. I like the Ducks now in what I see as a coin flip game on a neutral field. Oregon rebounded last week in their rivalry game with Oregon State. The Ducks generated 506 yards in the contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Oregon has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home against a conference rival. They held a 24-3 halftime lead in the game — and they have covered the point spread in 46 of their last 60 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. And while the Ducks had been on a five-game winning streak before their loss to the Utes, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a favorite. The Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Buffaloes to just 148 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Utah plays their best defense in the high altitude in Salt Lake City where they hold their opponents to just 15.8 PPG. But in their six games on the road, they are just 3-3 while allowing their opponents to score 27.2 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored. Oregon has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (305) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303) in Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UTSA (11-1) comes off their first loss of the season last week in a 45-23 upset loss at North Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won seven straight games after their 53-21 win at Marshall as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA had little at stake last week after clinching the opportunity to host this conference championship game the previous week with a 34-31 victory against UAB. While a perfect record would be nice for head coach Jeff Traylor, the most important goals are winning the first conference championship in program history and then winning the first bowl game in conference history. After committing some early turnovers in bad weather in Denton last week, Traylor pulled his starters with the writing on the wall for that game (against a Mean Green team motivated to become bowl eligible) to rest for this showdown. UTSA should respond with a strong effort. The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. UTSA has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss to a conference rival. Now the Roadrunners return home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.2 net Points-Per-Game. They outgain their visitors by +162.0 net Yards-Per-Game because of their defense that holds these guests to just 13.0 PPG and 239.5 total YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Roadrunners bring a balanced offense into this game led by quarterback Frank Harris and running back Sincere Mitchell. Harris is a dual-threat who is completing 66.3% of his passes — and he has 23 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. McCormick has rushed for more than 1000 yards in two straight seasons. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road in conference play. With their new Air Raid offense this season led by quarterback Bailey Zappe, the Hilltoppers are second in the nation by scoring 43.2 PPG. But UTSA has seen this offense already in their 52-46 victory at Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on October 9th. The Hilltoppers’ defense is a concern as they are tied for 87th in the nation by allowing 407.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Their ability to stop the pass is the biggest concern as they rank 113th in the nation by allowing 261.9 passing YPG. Harris completed 28 of 38 passes for 349 yards with six touchdown passes in the first meeting. Western Kentucky is surviving high-scoring games with their last four contests seeing at least 63 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is the trendy pick in this game because of the revenge angle and that they have lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and UTSA has won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But don’t underestimate the confidence of an older team in their ability to win close games — especially when they are playing at home (and at night). The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (301) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (302). THE SITUATION: Dallas (7-4) has lost two straight games and three of their last four after a 36-33 upset loss at home to Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. New Orleans (5-6) has lost three in a row after their 31-6 loss to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The injury update for the Saints this morning was not good. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his fourth straight game — he is the team’s best weapon on offense. New Orleans will also be without their bookend tackles with Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk out again this week with knee injuries. It is not just that the Saints are missing starting tackles, it is that Armstead and Ramczyk are two of the best offensive linemen in football. These absences simply cripple this offense that is already without top wide receiver Michael Thomas and starting quarterback Jameis Winston. But it is not just the offense that is missing key players. Their best pass rusher, Marcus Davenport, is out once again with a shoulder. New Orleans is also without defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon and linebacker Kaden Ellis. This is just too much for head coach Sean Payton to overcome in what was already a rebuilding season. Taysom Hill gets the start at quarterback — but he was unable to win the job in the preseason over Jameis Winston. Hill has thrown only eight passes with 20 rushing attempts this season. If he was such a dangerous threat as a dual-threat, he would be averaging more than 4.5 touches of the football per game (when healthy). Who is he going to throw to? And it is not as if Hill is the only mobile quarterback in the league. Having to defend running quarterbacks is standard fare in the NFL. New Orleans is scoring only 18.7 PPG and averaging 295.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. They have allowed 31 PPG in their last four games — and they have surrendered 167.5 rushing YPG in their last two games. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a double-digit loss at home. They are 1-3 at home this season where they have failed to cover the point spread 3 times. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Dallas is getting healthier with wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb expected back on the field and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence healthy again. The Cowboys need a win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points. Dak Prescott played much better last week after looking rusty two weeks ago. He completed 32 of 47 passes for 375 yards with two touchdown passes despite not having Cooper and Lamb as targets. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 509 yards to the Raiders with 366 coming in the air, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after allowing at least 350 passing yards. Dallas goes back on the road where they are 3-2 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored by up to seven points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Dallas-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (301) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (301) and the New Orleans Saints (302). THE SITUATION: Dallas (7-4) has lost two straight games and three of their last four after a 36-33 upset loss at home to Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. New Orleans (5-6) has lost three in a row after their 31-6 loss to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dak Prescott played much better last week after looking rusty two weeks ago. He completed 32 of 47 passes for 375 yards with two touchdown passes despite not having Cooper and Lamb as targets. But the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 509 yards to the Raiders with 366 coming in the air, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. Dallas has still only allowed 19.3 PPG in their last three contests. The Cowboys go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a favorite. New Orleans has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. The injury update for the Saints this morning was not good. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his fourth straight game — he is the team’s best weapon on offense. New Orleans will also be without their bookend tackles with Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk out again this week with knee injuries. It is not just that the Saints are missing starting tackles, it is that Armstead and Ramczyk are two of the best offensive linemen in football. These absences simply cripple this offense that is already without top wide receiver Michael Thomas and starting quarterback Jameis Winston. But it is not just the offense that is missing key players as they are missing some of their best players on defense. New Orleans allowed 361 yards to the Bills last week — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Taysom Hill gets the start at quarterback — but he was unable to win the job in the preseason over Jameis Winston. Hill has thrown only eight passes with 20 rushing attempts this season. If he was such a dangerous threat as a dual-threat, he would be averaging more than 4.5 touches of the football per game (when healthy). Who is he going to throw to? And it is not as if Hill is the only mobile quarterback in the league. Having to defend running quarterbacks is standard fare in the NFL. New Orleans is scoring only 18.7 PPG and averaging 295.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 9-1-1 in the Saints’ last 11 games when playing on a Thursday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (301) and the New Orleans Saints (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-7) lost their fifth game in their last six after their 23-13 upset loss to Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (4-6) pulled off their second straight upset victory with their 27-21 win at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS: This is a fishy line at first glance. The Football team has just upset Tampa Bay and Carolina — and now they host a reeling Seahawks team but they are not favorite? This is a “gotta have it” game for Seattle — and they have been pretty reliable in these situations under head coach Pete Carroll who has overseen this franchise with the most active consecutive winning seasons in the NFL. Bill Belichick does not hold that distinction. Nor does Mike Tomlin or Andy Reid or Sean Payton. It’s Pete Carroll. Seattle is 36-16-4 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up win. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a NFC West opponent. Furthermore, Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled in his two games since returning, perhaps prematurely, from his finger injury. He did play better last week against the Cardinals than he did in his first game back against Green Bay in a shutout loss. In hindsight, those were two tough assignments against the stout Packers and Cardinals defenses. And the Seahawks only had the ball for 19:38 minutes in the game. In his third week back, I do expect Wilson to look closer to his old self. Seattle has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. The Seahawks go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Seattle’s defense has steadily improved this season — they have held their last three opponents to 15.7 PPG. Washington controlled time of possession against the Panthers in their six-point victory — they were on offense for 35:53 minutes. The Football Team rushed for 190 yards in the win — but they have failed to cover the point spread 19 of their last 25 home games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. Washington allowed only 297 yards to Carolina but they did give up 6.2 Yards-Per-Play. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 6.2 YPP in their last game. Washington returns home where they are 2-3 while allowing 26.7 PPG and 391.2 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on Monday Night Football. Wilson has led the Seahawks to victory in ten of his twelve starts on Monday Night Football — and Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (273) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Washington Football Team (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-7) lost their fifth game in their last six after their 23-13 upset loss to Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (4-6) pulled off their second straight upset victory with their 27-21 win at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up loss. Seattle has also played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. The Seahawks have only scored 13 points in their two games since Russell Wilson returned to action from his finger injury. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Seattle is playing better on defense — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Now Seattle goes on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They held the Panthers to just 297 total yards last week by controlling the time of possession as they were on offense for 35:53 minutes of that game. The Football Team rushed for 190 yards in that game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Washington returns home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Football Team has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Seahawks have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Washington Football Team (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-5) has won two of their last three games after a 13-10 win at home against Detroit as a 14-point favorite last week. Baltimore (7-3) has also won two of their last three games with their 16-13 win at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has not looked very good in the last two weeks. They were flat against the winless Lions last week despite wanting to make a statement after their embarrassing 45-7 loss in New England the prior week. But injuries have played a role in the Browns’ subpar play — and they are getting healthy again. Nick Chubb returned to action last week to run the ball 22 times for 130 yards. Now both All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin and running back Kareem Hunt are expected to play tonight. Cleveland is a different team when their potent ground game is at full strength. The Browns have scored 41 or more points twice this season. They should raise their level of play in this AFC North showdown as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Cleveland held the Lions to only 245 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Baker Mayfield has been in a funk — but he loves playing against the Ravens. In his six career starts against Baltimore, Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards four times — and he has averaged 297 passing YPG in those six games. The rushing attack of the Browns travels — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. And while Baltimore gave up 353 yards to Bears’ defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens return home after a two-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens have failed to score more than 17 points in three of their last four games. Lamar Jackson is expected to play tonight (he claimed to be “120%” confident he will play) after missing last week because of a non-COVID illness. But the Ravens have yet to demonstrate they have the full fix to the eight-man front that Miami deployed against them in their loss on Thursday Night Football that took away Jackson’s rushing lanes and forced him to pass. Baltimore scored only 10 points with 304 total yards against the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (271) and the Baltimore Ravens (272). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-5) has won two of their last three games after a 13-10 win at home against Detroit as a 14-point favorite last week. Baltimore (7-3) has also won two of their last three games with their 16-13 win at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland has played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Browns held the Lions to just 245 total yards last week, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Cleveland limited Detroit to only 77 passing yards in that game — and they have then played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. But the Lions did rush for 168 yards against them — and the Browns have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their last game. Baker Mayfield is in a funk as of late — he completed 15 of 29 passes for just 176 yards against the Lions' defense while throwing two interceptions last week. Mayfield does not appear to be liberated in the Cleveland offense after the dismissal of Odell Beckham. The Browns are scoring only 20.3 PPG with just a 309.0 total YPG mark in their last three games. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Ravens have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Baltimore did allow the Bears to gain 353 total yards last week — but they have then played thirteen of their last nineteen games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens have still held their last three opponents to just 22.0 PPG and 240.3 total YPG. Baltimore has failed to score more than 17 points in three of their last four games. Lamar Jackson is expected to play tonight (he claimed to be “120%” confident he will play) after missing last week because of a non-COVID illness. But the Ravens have yet to demonstrate they have the full fix to the eight-man front that Miami deployed against them in their loss on Thursday Night Football that took away Jackson’s rushing lanes and forced him to pass. Baltimore scored only 10 points with 304 total yards against the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings in Baltimore Under the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (271) and the Baltimore Ravens (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-31 upset loss at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (7-3) looks to rebound from a 31-10 upset loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite back on November 15th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has been very reliable in bounce-back situations coming off a loss. Since 2019, the Packers are 7-0 off a loss while averaging 30.0 Points-Per-Game and topping the 31-point threshold five times. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. The Packers should play better on defense after allowing the Vikings to generate 408 yards of offense. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after giving up at least 30 points in their last contest. The Packers did gain 467 yards against the Minnesota defense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after gaining at least 350 yards. Green Bay has their ground game cranking behind A.J. Dillon who will have an elevated role this afternoon given the injury to Aaron Jones. The Packers are averaging 118 rushing YPG in their last four contests. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +15.0 PPG. Green Bay holds their guests to 11.0 PPG and 316.0 total YPG. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has an 18-2 record straight-up at home in his last 20 starts which makes the Pack a surprising underdog in this one. The Packers have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Part of the brilliance of Rodgers is that he is so careful with the football. He has thrown only one interception in his last 198 pass attempts (knock on wood …). Los Angeles may lead the NFL in Yards-Per-Play — but their only victory against a team with a winning record is Tampa Bay. The Rams have lost two in a row which halted a four-game winning streak — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning four or five of their last six games. I think “offensive genius” Sean McVay has become too enamored with the dopamine hit he receives when Matthew Stafford connects on a long pass. In his jouissance of no longer having to manage the play of Jared Goff, McVay has abandoned the play-action rushing attack that made the offense so effective in propelling the Rams’ Super Bowl run. The Rams only rushed for 52 yards against the 49ers — and they have failed to generate more than 94 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. I also think that McVay has overrated the talents of Stafford. I like Stafford — and I think he has incredible natural ability. His decision-making was sometimes questionable with Detroit — and he certainly lacks big-time playoff experience even going back to his days with Georgia. I think he got lulled into forcing the football to Calvin Johnson when those two stars were paired together — and I think he matured as a quarterback and as a leader after Johnson’s premature retirement. The addition of Odell Beckham worries me because it may play into McVay’s dopamine addiction for the long ball and because Stafford may succumb to the pressure to get him the football rather than taking what the defense offers him. Maybe the Rams are the organization where Beckham will stop being failed by everyone around him — or perhaps Beckham is part of the problem. Granted, they need him now after the season-ending injury to Robert Woods. Stafford’s four interceptions in his last two starts are as many as he had in his first eight starts with his new team. He has also been sacked seven times in the last two games. These mistakes have helped their opponents score 17 and 21 points in the first half in the last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Maybe McVay fixed these problems during the bye week — but the Rams are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored — and Green Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Packers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (264). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4-1) looks to rebound from a 41-37 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (6-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Pittsburgh defense was hit hard with injuries last week but head coach Mike Tomlin expects T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick to be back for this game (but cornerback Joe Haden appears doubtful to play). Fitzpatrick is an outstanding safety — but getting Watt back on the field is a game-changer. The Steelers are 0-4 without Watt this season — and he loves playing against the Bengals. Pittsburgh has a 7-1 record with Watt against Cincinnati — and he has eight sacks, 12 quarterback hits, eight more tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles in those contests. The encouraging aspect of the Steelers' loss last week was the offense scoring 37 points. Ben Roethlisberger completed 28 of 44 passes for 273 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the loss in his return to action after being out with COVID. In his last five starts, Roethlisberger has nine touchdown passes — and he is the only quarterback in the league without an interception during that span. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Steelers are a reliable road team under Tomlin. They are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games. Pittsburgh is also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games as an underdog. Cincinnati only gained 288 total yards in their victory against the Raiders last week despite controlling the clock for 37:20 minutes in that game. They averaged a mere 4.2 Yards-Per-Play. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Cincinnati has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Joe Mixon led the way for the Bengals last week as he spearheaded a ground game that generated 159 rushing yards — but Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they have a 2-2 record but they are getting outscored by -4.9 PPG and getting outgained by -17.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Cincinnati only scores 22.3 PPG at home. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 upset loss at home to Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite on September 26th. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge on their minds from a loss at home by at least 14 points. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). THE SITUATION: California (4-6) has won three of their last four games with their 41-11 victory at Stanford last week as a 2.5-point favorite. UCLA (7-4) has won two in a row with their 62-33 win at USC as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal is playing their best football of the season — and they should build off their momentum tonight. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Cal got their senior quarterback Chase Garbers back last week after he was injured for their previous game against Arizona when the team was hit hard by COVID in a 10-3 upset loss. The Bears had over 20 players out for that game with the Wildcats. Now with four wins and with their postponed game with USC on deck next week, bowl eligibility remains a real possibility. Garbers completed 17 of 26 passes for 246 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards on the ground. Garbers has posted a QBR of 82 or better in each of his last three starts with seven touchdown passes and one interception. Cal gained 636 yards in the win against the Cardinal — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Golden Bears gained 325 of those yards on the ground — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Cal’s defense has played better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG and 330.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Cal has been a very tough underdog over the years as they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 road games as a dog. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. UCLA comes off the rivalry game win against USC —  but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Bruins have won and covered the point spread as a favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 16 of 22 passes for 349 yards in the win last week — but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But the play of the defense has regressed as of late. In their last three games, UCLA has allowed 32.3 PPG and 437.3 total YPG. The Bruins rank just 112th in the nation in Opponent’s Rush Success Rate. UCLA hosts this game at home in the Rose Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Five of Cal’s six losses have been by one scoring possession. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. UCLA’s motivation for this game is questionable after their rivalry game and a bowl game clinched but with no chance of playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game next week. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (176) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (175). THE SITUATION: Virginia (6-5) has lost three straight games after their 48-38 loss at Pittsburgh as a 13-point underdog last week. Virginia Tech (5-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-26 loss at Miami (FL) as a 7-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia did get back quarterback Brennan Armstrong after he missed time with an injury. The southpaw completed 36 of 49 passes for 487 yards with three touchdown passes in the loss. The Cavaliers were only outgained by -4 yards to the Panthers by generating 504 total yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Virginia has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. And they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Armstrong threw an interception which accounted for the lone Cavaliers turnover — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. They return home where they are 4-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG — and they outgain their guests by +123.0 Yards-Per-Game. Virginia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Hokies committed only one turnover against the Hurricanes, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. This team is playing under interim head coach J.C. Price who took over after Justin Fuente was fired two weeks ago. Virginia Tech stays on the road where they are just 1-3 with an average losing margin of -5.8 PPG. They only score 19.0 PPG while averaging 317.5 total YPG on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia will be looking to avenge a 33-15 loss to the Hokies last season — so they will be very motivated to end their struggles against this team. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Virginia Cavaliers (176) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (175). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). THE SITUATION: Boston College (6-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 26-23 upset loss to Florida State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Wake Forest (9-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 48-27 loss at Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Boston College fell behind in the first half and went into the locker room with a 19-3 deficit before rallying to pull within three points with 10 minutes left to go in the game. But the Eagles could not score again to get upset by the Seminoles. That was the first loss for this team with a healthy Phil Jurkovec under center. Boston College is significantly better when he is leading the offense. Jurkovec averages 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game while generating 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry when rushing out of the backfield. The Eagles should bounce back this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after suffering an upset loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after by three points or less. Boston College gets to host this game in the cold weather where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Furthermore, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when getting up to 7 points as a home dog. The Boston College defense will play a big role in this showdown in slowing down the Demon Deacons’ quarterback Sam Hartman. The Eagles rank 26th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate — and they limit their opponents to just 6.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, ranking 33rd in the nation. Boston College holds their guests to just 19.2 PPG and 312.2 total YPG at home. Wake Forest has the pressure of needing to win this game to clinch their spot in the ACC Championship Game against Pittsburgh next week. While Hartman has led a powerful offense, it is the subpar play of the Demon Deacons’ defense that has exposed them against Clemson and North Carolina earlier this month. The Tigers rank just 117th in the nation in Pass Success Rate but were able to torch the Wake Forest defense for 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game and 543 total yards of offense. Clemson averaged 7.33 Yards-Per-Play last week — and the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Hartman tried to keep up as he completed 27 of 43 passes for 312 yards — but Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Hartman has been pressing with the defense being so easy to score on — he has six interceptions in his last three games. The Demon Deacons allow 30.8 PPG and 449.8 total YPG — and it is even worse away from home as they surrender 43.2 PPG and 540.8 total YPG in their five road games. Predictably, Wake Forest is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Demon Deacons are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Besides the opportunity to play the role of spoiler to Wake Forest’s ACC title chances, Boston College can avenge their 27-24 loss at home to the Demon Deacons on September 28th, 2019 in the last meeting between these two teams. Hartman quarterbacking in the cold Boston weather against an Eagles team that will score points may be too much to ask for the NFL prospect. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (226) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (225). THE SITUATION: Florida (5-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-23 upset loss at Missouri in overtime last Saturday. Florida State (5-6) has registered two straight upset victories after their 26-23 upset win at Boston College as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS THE POINTS: The streaking Seminoles upset Miami (FL) two weeks ago by a 31-28 score. But Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset win against an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a road underdog. They stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.5 PPG and getting outgained by -76.3 net YPG. The Seminoles defense gives up too many big plays — they rank 120th in Explosiveness Allowed. They give up 402.8 total YPG and 28.3 PPG in their four games on the road. They are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games — and they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games as an underdog. Florida plays their first game since Dan Mullen was fired as their head coach in just his second season with the team. It sure looks like many of the players stopped playing for him two weeks ago when they were getting trounced at home against Samford. The Gators rebounded in the second half to win that game by 18 points — but giving up 52 points to an FCS team is troubling. They had not allowed more than 31 points at home all season before that game — and that was in a 2-point loss to mighty Alabama. This remains one of the most talented teams in the nation who played the Crimson Tide tough earlier this year and in last year’s SEC Championship Game. A tough loss at LSU and then getting crushed against Georgia seems to have broken the team — and the players stopped responding to Mullen. Expect a spirited effort with Mullen now gone for interim head coach Greg Knox — it is the player’s way of communicating that he was the problem. Florida has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by seven points or less to a conference opponent. The Gators have only played one of their last six games at home — so getting back to the Swamp will help. They are 4-1 at home with an average winning margin of +20.6 net PPG and +155 net YPG marks. They score 42.8 PPG at home while generating 539.8 total YPG. With Emory Jones nursing an ankle injury, the talented Anthony Richardson gets the start at quarterback (which is fine). Florida has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Florida will be motivated to play on Senior Day with the opportunity to stick it to Mullen — and these players do not want the shame of not even becoming bowl eligible. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in games outside the ACC. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Florida Gators (226) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). THE SITUATION: Washington State (6-5) has won two of their last three games with their 44-19 win against Arizona as a 15-point favorite last Friday. Washington (4-7) has lost three in a row after a 20-17 upset loss as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This year’s version of the Apple Cup will feature two defensive coordinators serving as interim head coaches for programs working through a tumultuous season. Given some weather conditions that I will detail in the Final Take, I expect both teams to embrace a conservative defensive mentality in this rivalry game. Washington State has run the ball more since Jake Dickert was given the head coaching duties. In his four games, the Cougars had their first and third-highest rushing games in terms of attempts with 42 carries against Arizona State and 36 carries last week against the Wildcats — and this is despite them ranking 71st in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. As a defensive coach, Dickert appreciates the benefits running the ball does for his defense. They have held three of these four opponents to no more than 21 points after allowing 24 or more points in six of their first seven games. When now facing an outstanding Huskies secondary filled with future NFL players who rank fifth in the nation in Opposing Pass Success Rate and third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grading, Washington State will likely run the ball plenty tonight — and burn time off the clock limited offensive possessions along the way. The Cougars did gain 482 yards last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Washington State has also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cougars score only 23.0 PPG and average 355.3 total YPG on the road. Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by a touchdown or less against Pac-12 rivals. The Huskies held the Buffaloes to 183 yards in the loss last week. The Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Washington allows only 21.1 PPG and 325.9 total YPG on the season. But despite quarterback Dylan Morris passing for 387 yards, his two interceptions played a large role in their scoring just 17 points. The Huskies average just 1.4 Yards-Per-Carry. With this being the team’s final game, interim head coach Bob Gregory may give playing time to freshman QB Sam Huard. Either way, expect more long drives from an offense that ranks outside the top-115 in Standard Down Explosiveness, Rushing Explosiveness, and Passing Explosiveness. Washington is scoring only 21.0 PPG and averaging 286.0 total YPG in their last three games. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Huskies have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: There is a 50% chance for rain in Seattle for this game which will likely hurt the passing game for both teams. I suspect both defensive coaches will not take as many chances throwing the ball in the rain. And if you watched Washington play in Ann Arbor in the rain against Michigan earlier this year, you witnessed how ineffective Morris and their receivers were dealing with a wet football. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings at Washington Under the Total. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). THE SITUATION: East Carolina (7-4) has won four games in a row with their 38-35 win at Navy as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (11-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 48-14 victory against SMU as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats made a statement with their emphatic 34-point victory against a quality Mustangs team that entered that game with an 8-2 record. Cincinnati now finds themselves in the College Football Playoff top-four rankings this week — and they are locked into the American Athletic Conference Championship Game next week against Houston. Alas, the Bearcats walk into this emotional letdown and a look-ahead spot against the Pirates. Now road favorites still manage to cover all the time in these situations — so the issue becomes how vulnerable is Cincinnati in this spot and how dangerous of an underdog is East Carolina. On Issue One, the Bearcats are vulnerable to letdowns. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. And while they have gained at least 506 yards in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight contests. They held the Mustangs pass offense to just 66 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Bearcats have experienced scares from some middle-of-the-road conference opponents. They only beat Navy on the road by a touchdown. They defeated Tulsa at home by eight points. While they are scoring 40.0 PPG and averaging 429.7 total YPG, those numbers drop by a touchdown and more than 60 total YPG to 33.0 PPG and 368.4 total YPG marks when playing on the road. They also allow just under 26 more YPG away from home. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. On Issue Two, East Carolina does have the pedigree of a dangerous but under-appreciated opponent. After a 3-6 campaign last year, head coach Mike Houston had 20 starters return for what is likely his best roster in his three years with the program. They are playing their best football at this point of the season having outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 PPG and outgaining them by +208.5 net YPG. After opening the season with understandable losses at Appalachian State and home to South Carolina, they have pulled off three upset victories against Memphis, Marshall, and Tulane. They lost on the road to Houston in overtime. They enter this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They generated 563 yards against the Midshipmen last week while outgaining them by +181 net yards. The Pirates are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. Quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 27 of 32 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes in the win last week. He leads an offense scoring 37.7 PPG and generating 505.5 total YPG in their last three games. He can keep East Carolina competitive in this contest with his deep balls — he leads an offense that ranks 18th in the nation in Explosiveness. The Bearcats have played only two teams ranked in the top-25 in Offensive Explosiveness — and they rank 71st in the Pass Defense Explosiveness. The Pirates are 4-1 at home at Dowdy-Ficken Stadium where they outscore their opponents by +16.0 PPG. East Carolina has an underrated defense that holds their visitors to just 18.8 PPG -- and they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG and 297.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina had 21 first-time starters last season, the fifth-most in the nation. The fruits of that commitment to go young are coming into place now. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 conference games. Lastly, East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a dog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Yes, this is a dangerous team. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-15 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (5-5) lost their third straight game with their 40-29 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Unders after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The formula for success for head coach Sean McDermott tonight will likely be to play conservative, get a lead, and then don’t risk losing it. After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score three weeks ago, the Bills finally made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Brieda in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. But the Bills got away from that last week as they ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. The Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Bills have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They are allowing just 17.6 PPG along with 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 16.0 PPG and 310.8 total YPG in their five road games. New Orleans only gained 323 yards last week in their loss at Philadelphia. The Saints’ offense is ravaged with injuries in their first year in the post-Drew Brees era. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game with a knee. Mark Ingram is questionable with his knee injury — and he was simply a rotation running back with Houston before being re-acquired by New Orleans midseason. Quarterback Jameis Winston is out the season with his torn ACL and Taysom Hill is not 100% with a foot injury that limits his mobility. The offensive line is banged up — and wide receiver unit lacks a true number one with Michael Thomas not playing this year. Quarterback Trevor Siemian was effective early coming on in relief in the Saints’ upset win against Tampa Bay — but he is winless in his three starts while regressing in his quality of play as opposing defenses build their book up against him. He completed only 22 of 40 passes for 214 yards with two interceptions last week. That 5.4 yards-per-attempt passing average he had against the Eagles is sub-standard. He is ineffective if placed into obvious passing downs when playing from behind. New Orleans returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Saints’ defense is allowing only 21.8 PPG — but they need to bounce-back after getting embarrassed by Philadelphia. They allowed 383 total yards to the Eagles with 242 of them coming on the ground last week. New Orleans has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards. Turnovers are hurting this team as they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games. That explains why the Saints have allowed 30.0 PPG in those three games despite only giving up 336.7 total YPG during that span. New Orleans has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing the turnover battle in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total played on a Thursday. Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5. to 49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (109) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-15 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (5-5) lost their third straight game with their 40-29 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo should respond with a strong effort tonight as they are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The formula for success for head coach Sean McDermott tonight will likely be to play conservative, get a lead, and then don’t risk losing it. After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score three weeks ago, the Bills finally made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Brieda in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. But the Bills got away from that last week as they ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. The Bills have been outstanding on defense for most of the season — they should bounce-back after giving up 370 yards last week. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after surrendering at least 30 points in their last game. They are allowing just 17.6 PPG along with 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 16.0 PPG and 310.8 total YPG in their five road games. New Orleans only gained 323 yards last week in their loss at Philadelphia. The Saints’ offense is ravaged with injuries in their first year in the post-Drew Brees era. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game with a knee. Mark Ingram is questionable with his knee injury — and he was simply a rotation running back with Houston before being re-acquired by New Orleans midseason. Quarterback Jameis Winston is out the season with his torn ACL and Taysom Hill is not 100% with a foot injury that limits his mobility. The offensive line is banged up — and wide receiver unit lacks a true number one with Michael Thomas not playing this year. Quarterback Trevor Siemian was effective early coming on in relief in the Saints’ upset win against Tampa Bay — but he is winless in his three starts while regressing in his quality of play as opposing defenses build their book up against him. He completed only 22 of 40 passes for 214 yards with two interceptions last week. That 5.4 yards-per-attempt passing average he had against the Eagles is sub-standard. He is ineffective if placed into obvious passing downs when playing from behind. New Orleans. The Bills are 3-2 on the road this season — and the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in non-conference play. They should overwhelm a struggling and undermanned Saints’ team that head coach Sean Payton has been using mirrors to get by with this season. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (109) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-7) lost their fifth straight game with a 16-13 loss to Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (0-9-1) comes off a 13-10 loss at Cleveland as a 14-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. And in their last 24 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Justin Fields was knocked out of the Ravens game with a rib injury that will keep him out this afternoon. Andy Dalton will be under center for this game after completing less than 50% of his passes (11 of 23) against Baltimore. Chicago is scoring only 16.3 PPG and averaging 287.9 total Yards-Per-Game under offensive “guru” May Nagy — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG and 269.2 total YPG in their five games on the road. They have not scored more than 27 points all season while scoring 22 or fewer points in eight of their ten games and 20 points or less in seven of their games. The Bears did gain 353 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Chicago is they did hold Baltimore to only 299 total yards. They did not allow more than 17 points for the fourth time this season. Detroit has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least two in a row. The Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. It looks like it will be Jared Goff under center for this one with him being listed as questionable with the oblique injury that kept him out against the Browns. Backup quarterback Tim Boyle completed 15 of 23 passes but for only 77 yards with two interceptions against Cleveland in demonstrating that he is not as effective as even a limited Goff. Detroit is scoring only 16.0 PPG — and they score just 16.8 PPG at home while averaging 292.8 total YPG. The Lions have not topped 19 points in nine straight games — and they are averaging a mere 10.7 PPG and 259.7 total YPG in their last three contests. Detroit has scored 26 points in their last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. The Lions’ defense has played better lately by only allowing 29 combined points in their last two contests. They did allow 184 rushing yards to the Browns last week but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and Chicago has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Total is low for this one — but it simply would not be a shock if one (or both) of these teams failed to score double-digits especially after Nagy canceled team meetings on Tuesday amidst the rumors he was going to be fired after this game (although the Lions offense is not in better shape even with full meetings on Tuesday). 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (477) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New York (3-6) has won two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog back on November 7th. Tampa Bay (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 29-19 upset loss at Washington as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 54 games on the road after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. The Giants are likely undervalued right now — they have three losses to Washington, Atlanta, and Kansas City decided by a combined seven points. Injuries have hit this team hard but they hope to get left tackle Andrew Thomas and running back Saquon Barkley back on the field tonight. New York’s defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 314.7 total YPG. The Giants have been very consistent when playing on the road where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have suffered two straight upset losses after losing in New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite on October 31st. Tom Brady misses his security blankets in wide receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brown remains out tonight but Gronkowski could return to the field with his being listed as questionable — although how effective he will be with his sore back remains an issue. Tampa Bay gained only 273 yards against the Football Team. Maybe the Buccaneers can simply flip the switch and cover a double-digit spread tonight — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering two straight upset losses. Tampa Bay has not covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games. Tampa Bay misses Vita Tea on their defensive line who has been out with a knee injury. He is doubtful to play tonight. The Buccaneers' defense has allowed 122 rushing YPG in their last four games after holding their first five opponents to just 46 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in November. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (477) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New York (3-6) has won two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog back on November 7th. Tampa Bay (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 29-19 upset loss at Washington as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have suffered two straight upset losses after losing in New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite on October 31st. Tom Brady misses his security blankets in wide receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brown remains out tonight but Gronkowski could return to the field with his being listed as questionable — although how effective he will be with his sore back remains an issue. Tampa Bay gained only 273 yards against the Football Team. They were only on offense for 20:52 minutes. The Buccaneers only ran the ball 13 times for 53 yards — and they only had 14 rushes for 71 yards in their loss to the Saints. Look for Tampa Bay to get back to running the football. They had averaged 29.3 rushing attempts in their four games which were all victories. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay has also played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Running the ball will also help the Buccaneers defense that has allowed 122 rushing YPG in their last four games after holding their first five opponents to just 46 rushing YPG. Tampa Bay misses Vita Tea on their defensive line who has been out with a knee injury. He is doubtful to play tonight — but asking the defense to be on the field five to ten minutes less than they were last week will help. So will returning home help where the Buccaneers hold their guests to just 18.5 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Giants managed only 247 total yards in the win last week with Daniel Jones completing 15 of 20 passes but for only 110 yards. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. And while the Giants surrendered 403 yards to the Raiders, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. New York’s defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 314.7 total YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 straight games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against NFC foes. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (5-3-1) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 16-16 tie with Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: I consider the Steelers a bit overrated — and they are ravaged with injuries for this one. Big Ben Roethlisberger will play after being removed from the COVID list — but he has not practiced in a couple of weeks. Granted, Roethlisberger is not a gym rat — but I still expect him to be rusty after being in quarantine. Left guard Kevin Dotson is out with a foot injury. The Pittsburgh defense is without their three best players in linebacker T.J. Watt, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and cornerback Joe Haden. Those losses on defense are devastating. As it is, Pittsburgh is being outscored and outgained this season. They are getting outgained by -46.7 net Yards-Per-Game on the road. The Steelers winning record is due to their 5-0-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. Mike Tomlin’s team could easily be 3-6 instead of 5-3-1. Their record is also skewed when considering that six of their nine games have been at home at Heinz Field. They are scoring just 18.3 PPG and averaging 301.3 total YPG in their three road games. Pittsburgh did game 387 yards last week against the Lions — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last game Under the Total including failing to cover the point spread in four of their five games this season after an Under. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after an upset loss at home as the favorite. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles gave up 278 passing yards to the Vikings last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. The good news for the Chargers is that they expect defensive end Joey Bosa to be back on the field after being on the COVID list. On their home field, Los Angeles is scoring 27.2 PPG while averaging 380.6 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents. Against a depleted Steelers’ defense, Los Angeles should reach their home scoring average in the high-20s — and that is a mark that will be hard for Pittsburgh to match. The Steelers have not scored more than 17 points in five of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-3-1) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 16-16 tie with Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Pittsburgh gained 387 yards against the Lions' defense last week, the Under is 37-14-2 in their last 53 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This will be just their fourth game on the road this season — and they are scoring just 18.3 PPG and averaging 301.3 total YPG in their three road games. The Under is a decisive 42-13-1 in the Steelers’ last 56 games on the road — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC foes — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in November. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Their loss to the Vikings fell below the 53.5 point Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Chargers stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 14-5-1 in their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 4 straight Unders when hosting the Steelers on their home field.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5. or higher. Pittsburgh has played 29 of their last 40 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 to 49.5. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (461) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (462). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 22-10 upset loss at Miami as an 8.5-point underdog on November 11th. Chicago (3-6) has lost four in a row after their 29-27 loss at Pittsburgh as a 7-point underdog on November 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINT(S): This situation probably triggers a 25* play on Baltimore if Lamar Jackson is playing in this game. But Jackson has been declared out this morning with a non-COVID illness — so it will be Tyler Huntley under center. I still like the Ravens now as a small favorite in this game (albeit, as a 20* play). Baltimore likes the former Utah Utes’ quarterback because he is mobile and can operate the basic schemes designed for Jackson. In offensive coordinator Greg Roman, I trust, for this one. Look for Huntley to be very active in the run game this afternoon against a depleted Bears defense missing Khalil Mack (out the season) and Akeem Hicks. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. The Ravens defense surrendered 290 passing yards to the Dolphins last week — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored by 7 points or less. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread win — and in their last 16 home games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these games. I expect rookie QB Justin Fields to struggle in this one. He has thrown seven interceptions this season while being sacked 27 times. He has struggled against man-to-man coverage and pressure — and the Ravens will offer heavy doses of both this afternoon. Baltimore is third in the NFL by playing man-defense 40% of the time. They blitz 30.4% of the time on passing downs, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL — and their 31.8% pressure rate is ninth-best in the league. The Bears are coming off their bye week — but they are winless in seven games played off the bye under head coach Matt Nagy and they are just 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games coming off a bye. They are banged up on defense, as mentioned above, and they have surrendered 586 rushing yards in their last four games. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. While it is a disappointment that Jackson is not playing, that is why the line dropped to the Ravens laying just a point or so. John Harbaugh will find a way for his team to win this game. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (461) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (372) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (371). THE SITUATION: Utah (7-3) has won three games in a row with their 38-29 win at Arizona last week as a 24-point favorite. Oregon (9-1) has won five games in a row with their 38-24 victory against Washington State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should continue to build off its momentum. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road against a Pac-12 rival. The Utes have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after winning two in a row against Pac-12 foes. Utah is a better team now that they have settled their quarterback situation. Former Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer was under center early in the season — but the offense has improved after a disgruntled Brewer left the program because he was being outplayed by Cameron Rising. The former Texas recruit completed 19 of 30 passes last week for 294 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Rising has 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions — and he has made 13 Big-Time Throws with only three turnover-worthy plays. Utah is 3-3 on the road this year after starting the season 1-2 — but they are an unbeaten 4-0 at home with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. They generate 430.8 total YPG at home while allowing just 340.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored. The Utes defense has held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG and 323.0 YPG. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in conference play. Oregon has covered the point spread in their last two games after their narrow cover against the Cougars last week. But the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while their win against Washington State finished Over the 58 point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Ducks defense has some issues despite having a likely top-ten pick in the next NFL draft in defensive lineman Kayvan Thibodeaux. Oregon is 95th in the nation in defensive touchdown rate in the Red Zone. They are also 73rd in Havoc Rate — and Utah is 18th in Havoc Rate Allowed on offense. The Ducks goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Utah is in the driver’s seat to win the Pac-12 South with a one-game lead against Arizona State while controlling the tie-breaker with their victory against the Sun Devils. But Kyle Whittingham does not have his team take their foot off the gas pedal this time of the season. The Utes have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. And Whittingham will motivate his team to avenge the 37-15 loss to the Ducks in their last meeting on December 6th in 2019 by a 37-15 score. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Utah Utes (372) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (371). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (409) and the UTSA Roadrunners (410). THE SITUATION: UAB (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 21-14 upset win at Marshall as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. UTSA (10-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 27-13 win against Southern Mississippi as a 32.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers controlled the clock by being on offense for 37:43 minutes last week which helped them hold the Thundering Herd to just 269 total yards to help them pull off the upset. That will be the formula for success again today for head coach Bill Clark. UAB has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Blazers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. UAB leads Conference USA by allowing only 320.2 total YPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play. In their six road games, the Blazers are allowing just 16.2 PPG and 280.7 total YPG. The Blazers have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total -- and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Under is 15-5-1 in UAB’s last 21 games as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. UTSA has not allowed more than 17 points in three of their last four games. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win. The Roadrunners held the Golden Eagles to just 189 yards of offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The UTSA defense has been particularly tough at home where they hold their guests to just 9.4 PPG and 192.6 total YPG. The Roadrunners have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. UTSA is fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 2.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. They will make thinks difficult on the Blazers who only average 85th in the nation by averaging 213 passing YPG — and UAB is just 56th in Passing Success Rate. The Roadrunners have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA clinches a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game with a win — but UAB is still alive to defend their conference title just one game behind the Roadrunners in the West Division. The Blazers defeated UTSA last year by a 21-13 score in Birmingham as a 21.5-point favorite on October 3rd. UAB has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in UTSA’s last 9 games against teams with winning records. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (409) and the UTSA Roadrunners (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (384) plus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (383). THE SITUATION: Navy (2-7) has lost four of their last five games after their 34-6 loss at Notre Dame as a 21-point underdog two weeks ago. East Carolina (6-4) has won three in a row after their 30-29 upset win in overtime against Memphis as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the disappointing record, Navy still has their showdown with Army to think about — so this is an important game to establish some momentum for that final rivalry game in three weeks. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Navy has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. The Midshipmen only gained 184 yards against the Irish in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. Despite their seven losses, Navy has been competitive — they lost by one score to the powers in the American Athletic Conference in Cincinnati, Houston, and SMU. They are 19th in the nation in Red Zone defense by keeping their opponents scoreless in 25% of their trips. It is Senior Day in Annapolis this afternoon — and the Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. East Carolina quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 29 of 46 passes for 317 yards in leading the Pirates to the upset win against the Tigers — but they are just 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The boxscore indicates that East Carolina outgained Memphis by a 502 to 341 yards margin — but they only averaged 4.9 Yards-Per-Play while allowing the Tigers to average 6.4 YPP. The Pirates are not likely to win the time of possession against a Navy team who average 35:34 minutes per game behind their triple-option rushing attack. After the emotional victory last week — and Cincinnati on deck — East Carolina may not have had their full attention during the week in preparing for the Midshipmen’s unique offense. They allow 4.4 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and they have surrendered 226 rushing yards to Appalachian State, 204 rushing yards to Marshall, and 199 rushing yards to South Florida. The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when favored overall.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina has not beaten Navy since 2011. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Midshipmen after losing at home to them last season by a 27-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Don’t be surprised if Navy wins this game outright — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Navy Midshipmen (384) plus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) looks to rebound from their 43-3 loss at Dallas an 8-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won four in a row with their 45-7 win against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have lost two of their last three games after catching an angry Cowboys team that was coming off their worst game of the season in an upset loss at home to Denver. Despite Atlanta being hit hard by injuries, rookie head coach Arthur Smith has done a good job with this team. After losing their first two games of the season by 49 combined points, the Falcons won four of their next six games with each of those contests decided by one-scoring possession. If there was a silver lining from Sunday’s blowout loss, it was that Matt Ryan left the game in the third quarter. The veteran quarterback will be rested and ready for this game on a short week. Atlanta went into halftime trailing by a 36-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns at halftime in their last game. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a -2 net turnover margin did not help matters — but Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Falcons only gained 214 total yards in the loss — but they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Cowboys gained 431 yards against them last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New England is peaking in terms of market value after their 38-point win against the Browns — but they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. Additionally, New England is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now they go back on the road where they are 4-0 — but they are gaining just 309.3 total YPG in those contests. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has played much better than expected under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels — but New England has supported him with a quality rushing attack. The Patriots rushed for 184 yards last week after gaining 151 yards on the ground in their previous game at Carolina. The Patriots are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: After playing their last two games on the road, Atlanta returns home which gives them a situational edge in this matchup. The concept of selling high and buying low when handicapping football gets thrown around too loosely in my opinion — but this is a genuine opportunity to take advantage of that axiom fading a Patriots team that opened around a 4-point favorite but has been bet up to a touchdown or so favorite on the road on a short week. The market is overreacting to the blowout results both teams incurred last week. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (311) and the Atlanta Falcons (312). THE SITUATION: New England (6-4) has won four in a row with their 45-7 win against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (4-5) looks to rebound from their 43-3 loss at Dallas an 8-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots held the Browns to just 217 yards last week in their blowout victory. New England is allowing only 327.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game for their opponents. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now they go on the road where they are allowing just 326.3 total YPG — and they are holding their home hosts to just 14.5 PPG. New England has played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored. The Patriots have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG and 275.3 total YPG. Atlanta only managed 214 yards last week with their offense sputtering as it continues to be hit hard with the loss of key players. Wide receiver Calvin Ridley is out indefinitely dealing with personal issues. Running back/wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Hayden Hurst are both questionable this week with ankle injuries they suffered against the Cowboys. They are scoring only 14.3 PPG and 264.3 total YPG. They return home where they are winless in three games while only scoring 16.3 PPG and generating just 282.3 YPG. Atlanta has played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total in November — and New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (311) and the Atlanta Falcons (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 54-30 win against Kent State as a 2.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Ball State (5-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-29 upset loss at Northern Illinois as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chippewas generated 505 yards against the Golden Flashes last week with quarterback Daniel Richardson completing 21 of 27 passes for 268 yards with four touchdown passes. But Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Chippewas are scoring 32.8 PPG and averaging 447.5 total YPG — but those numbers drop by -6.0 PPG and -39.7 YPG in their five games on the road. Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Ball State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed 475 yards to the Huskies last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite returning 20 starters from the squad that won the Mid-American Championship last season, head coach Mike Neu has found things more difficult this year back to a full conference schedule after the COVID-shortened campaign last season. After scoring 34.2 PPG last year, the Cardinals are scoring only 25.6 PPG this year — that number drops to 22.2 PPG at home in their four games. They rank 106th in the nation by averaging 347.2 total YPG — and they averaging -19.2 fewer YPG at home. Third-year starting quarterback Drew Plitt leads an offense that is averaging just 206.0 passing YPG this season, ranking 96th in the nation. He has passed for less than 200 yards in two straight games as Neo pivots the offense around freshman running back Carson Steele. Ball State has rushed for at least 200 yards in three of their last four games. Continuing this ground attack will not exploit the vulnerable Chippewas ‘ pass defense that ranks 122nd in the nation by allowing 280.5 passing YPG. Central Michigan does defend the run well after returning ten starters from a defense that ranked ninth in the nation last year by holding their opponents to 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. The Chippewas are holding conference opponents to 3.8 YPC this year. The high-risk/high-reward aggressive tactics under head coach Jim McElwain is giving up too many big plays in the passing game — but Central Michigan does rank in the top ten in the nation in Tackles for Loss fueled by their 27 sacks. The Cardinals rushed for 246 yards last week — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ball State returns home where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Weather looks to play a role tonight with rain expected with winds in the 10-15 miles-per-hour range. The kicking and passing games may be negatively impacted. The Chippewas have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in that 56.5 to 63 range. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 34-26 upset loss to Ohio as a 6-point favorite last Tuesday. Western Michigan (6-4) ended their two-game losing streak with a 45-40 win against Akron as a 26-point favorite last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan still has plenty to play for this season even if their 3-3 conference record likely has them out of contention to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Reaching eight wins would be a milestone for this program as would winning the Michigan MAC Title involving the four directional teams from the state in the conference. Reaching a fourth bowl in the last six seasons under head coach Chris Creighton would cement his legacy. The Eagles have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Ben Bryant complete 41 of 57 passes for 354 yards in the losing effort to the Bobcats. The graduate transfer quarterback from Cincinnati is completing 69.7% of his passes and has thrown for at least 300 yards in four straight games. He leads an offense ranked 27th in the nation by scoring 34.0 PPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after passing for at least 280 yards. They return home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 PPG. Eastern Michigan rarely gets soundly defeated — they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. Western Michigan has been inconsistent under head coach Tim Lester. They are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival. The defensive play of the Broncos has been holding them back. They are tied for 91st in the nation by allowing 30.0 PPG — and they surrender 34.8 PPG and 413.3. total YPG in their four games on the road. Western Michigan has allowed at least 31 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after giving up at least 31 points in their last two contests. The offense has taken a step back this year as well. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby led the team to score 41.7 PPG last season — but the loss of two players to the NFL from that group may be playing a role in their averaging 11.0 fewer PPG this season. On the road, the Broncos are scoring just 24.3 PPG. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan was a favorite to win the MAC West Title — so their 3-3 record in the MAC has been another disappointment under Lester. It could be worse — the Broncos have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Eastern Michigan has played an incredible 45 of their last 58 games within one scoring possession. They are 2-3 in their five one-score games this year continuing a string of tough luck where they have won only four of their last fourteen games decided by eight points or less. Eastern Michigan has upset Miami (OH) and Toledo this year making it 15 upset wins under Creighton in the last six seasons. Getting 5.5 to 6 or so points offers a nice cushion in a game where the Eagles should be in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 28-16 upset loss to Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 31-17 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ defense held the Titans to just 194 total yards but were stagnant on offense. Matthew Stafford had his worst game in a Los Angeles uniform by completing 31 of 48 passes for 294 yards but with two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. The Rams’ offensive line struggled to slow down the Tennessee four-man rush and Stafford’s play reminded Detroit Lions fans of the quarterback they would often witness. Stafford will be without Robert Woods for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL on Friday. That injury came a day after the team signed Odell Beckham. I am skeptical but keeping an open mind on how Beckham will work with the Rams. There may be early growing pains in getting Stafford and Beckham on the same page. Stafford struggled at times keeping the Lions' offense in synch under the pressure of feeding Calvin Johnson the football. Los Angeles only gained 347 total yards last week with head coach and play-caller Sean McVay abandoning the run game and the play-action game that brought him so much initial success with this offense. Scoring 38 points against the New York Giants and Houston Texans is great — but the Rams have not scored more than 28 points in their other four games since peaking in a 34-24 win against Tampa Bay the last Sunday night in September. Those 28 points were scored at home against Detroit, by the way. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Rams have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Now Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored. San Francisco only gained 337 yards last week in their loss to a Colt McCoy-led Cardinals. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did complete 28 of 40 passes for 326 yards in the losing effort — but the Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total hosting the Rams. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have seen 49 or fewer combined points in three of their four games at home in Levi Stadium. They have not scored more than 21 points in five of their eight games. The Rams have seen 51 or fewer points in three of their four games on the road. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 24 or fewer points. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (266) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (265). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 31-17 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (7-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 28-16 upset loss to Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Matthew Stafford had his worst game in a Los Angeles uniform by completing 31 of 48 passes for 294 yards but with two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. The Rams’ offensive line struggled to slow down the Tennessee four-man rush and Stafford’s play reminded Detroit Lions fans of the quarterback they would often witness. Stafford will be without Robert Woods for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL on Friday. That injury came a day after the team signed Odell Beckham. I am skeptical but keeping an open mind on how Beckham will work with the Rams. There may be early growing pains in getting Stafford and Beckham on the same page. Stafford struggled at times keeping the Lions' offense in synch under the pressure of feeding Calvin Johnson the football. Los Angeles only gained 347 total yards last week with head coach and play-caller Sean McVay abandoning the run game and the play-action game that brought him so much initial success with this offense. Scoring 38 points against the New York Giants and Houston Texans is great — but the Rams have not scored more than 28 points in their other four games since peaking in a 34-24 win against Tampa Bay the last Sunday night in September. Those 28 points were scored at home against Detroit, by the way. Los Angeles did hold the Titans to just 194 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The Rams are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November under McVay. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after getting upset by an NFC West rival in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival as a home favorite. The 49ers only gained 337 yards against the Cardinals but they only had the ball on offense for 23:13 minutes. They averaged a healthy 6.6 Yards-Per-Play last week after averaging 8.6 YPP the previous week in a 33-22 win at Chicago. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. San Francisco has lost eleven of their last twelve games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They may be winless at home this season but they are outgaining their opponents by +13.2 net YPG. The Niners are outgaining their opponents by +27.5 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 meetings with the Rams while sweeping them in both divisional games the last two seasons. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (266) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-4) has won two games in a row with their 13-7 victory against Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (5-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 23-16 upset loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. Kansas City has also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 14 points. The Chiefs have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played four straight Unders. Kansas City has then played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders — and they have played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. How long with the Patrick Mahomes slump continue? The Chiefs have only scored 36 combined points in their last three games. Facing the familiar Raiders’ defense may be just what the doctor ordered. Kansas City scored 35 and 32 points in their two games against Las Vegas last season. Mahomes has 15 touchdown passes in his six previous games against the Raiders. And while the Chiefs defense has only allowed 17 PPG in their last three games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Derek Carr completed 30 of 46 passes for 296 yards in the loss while leading the Raiders offense to 403 total yards. Las Vegas has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after gaining at least 400 yards run their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Raiders have averaged 423.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Las Vegas returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and the Over is 10-0-1 in their last 11 home games when they are the underdog. The Over is also 8-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas should be able to move the football against this Chiefs defense that allows 396.6 total YPG on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City sees 54.3 combined points scored when playing on the road while Las Vegas averages 50.6 combined points when playing at home. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Chiefs. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (264) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (263). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-3) had their two-game losing streak snapped with a 23-16 loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (5-4) has won two in a row after their 13-7 win against Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas dominated the statistics against the Giants last week. They won the first down battle by a 24-16 margin — and they outgained them by a 403 to 245 margin in yards. A -2 net turnover margin did the Raiders in — including a 41-yard interception returned for a touchdown by the Giants. Las Vegas returns home where they are 3-1 this season while outgaining their opponents to +85.8 net Yards-Per-Game. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Las Vegas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City beat a Packers team playing without Aaron Rodgers despite only gaining 237 yards and getting outgained by -64 net yards. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in November. Furthermore, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC West rivals — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against division foes. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (264) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (255) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (256). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) looks to rebound from a 34-31 loss in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog against Baltimore last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-24 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: All of Minnesota’s losses this season have been by a touchdown or less this season. They should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 59 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two in a row. Minnesota was outgained by -182 yards against the Ravens after being outgained by -141 yards to Dallas in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 points in two straight games. The Vikings are still outgaining their opponents overall this season. They have forced multiple turnovers in four straight games — and they lead the NFL by averaging 3.4 sacks per game. Minnesota has also scored at least 30 points in four of their games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 68.8% of his passes on the road with a 111.3 Passer Rating — the fourth-best QB mark on the road this season. He has ten passing touchdowns on the road and no interceptions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record a home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles generated 445 yards last week against the Eagles en route to outgaining them by +114 net yards. But the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Los Angeles returns home where they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL as they are allowing 162 rushing YPG. Minnesota should have success in this department as they average 143 rushing YPG on the road — and they have generated 550 rushing yards in their last four games. Vikings running back Delvin Cook may come out with a big game in response to the off-the-field problems he had this week. Los Angeles is also banged up in their secondary with at least two cornerbacks out and more defensive backs questionable with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November — and Minnesota has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings win this game — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Minnesota Vikings (255) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). THE SITUATION: Utah State (7-2) has won four games in a row after their 35-13 win at New Mexico State as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday. San Jose State (5-5) had their two-game winning streak end with their 27-24 loss at Nevada as a 12.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Quarterback Lucas Bonner completed 23 of 32 passes for 349 yards in the victory against the Aggies — but Utah State has played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Bonner passed for 406 yards in their previous game against Hawai’i -- but the Aggies have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 yards in two straight games. Utah State stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 61 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Aggies have played 40 of these games Under the Total. San Jose State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road —  and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Spartans have also played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. San Jose State has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 6 straight home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Spartans scoring numbers on the season are lower than expected because quarterback Nick Starkel has missed a handful of games. He was back last week to help the offense pass for 288 yards — but San Jose State has played 8 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Spartans return home where they hold their opponents to just 21.3 PPG — and the 319.0 total Yards-Per-Game they give up to their guests is -36.0 net YPG below their season average. San Jose State has played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record Utah State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-24 loss at Utah as a 6.5-point underdog two weeks ago. Colorado (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 37-34 upset victory against Oregon State in double-overtime as an 11.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chip Kelly’s seat is getting warmer in Los Angeles after a two-game slide — although both losses were without quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The bye week helped DTR and some other injured players get healthy again for the stretch run of the season that will determine whether or not this has been a successful season. With USC on deck, UCLA will want to establish some momentum. They narrowly lost at home to Oregon by a 34-31 score in their previous game before being flat against the Utes. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they spotted Utah 28 points in the first half in their last game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two in a row to a Pac-12 foe while allowing at least 31 points in both contests . Hosting the Buffaloes may be just what the doctor ordered as they have allowed at least 200 rushing yards five times in this season including in each of their last three games. In their last seven contests, Colorado is giving up 211 rushing YPG with their opponent scoring at least three rushing touchdowns in four of those games. UCLA running backs Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown along with Thompson-Robinson combine to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry with 20 rushing touchdowns. They host the Buffaloes at the Rose Bowl where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Colorado is getting better play from freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis who has led them to score 33 PPG in their last two games after they averaged just 12 PPG in their first six games against FBS opponents. But the Buffaloes winless on the road in four games with an average losing margin of -17.8 PPG. They only score 13.0 PPG and average 238.8 total YPG on the road — and they allow their home hosts to average 433.3 total YPG. This will be Colorado’s third game in their last four on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. The Buffaloes surrendered 475 yards to the Beavers in their upset win — and they have failed to cover the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not committing a turnover.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has lost by at least 22 points in all four of their setbacks in the Pac-12 this season. UCLA has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (6-3) has won two straight games after their 31-28 win against Mississippi State as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (4-5) looks to rebound from their 20-14 loss at Alabama as a 29.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while Arkansas has not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Razorbacks go back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season in their three games away from home. They score only 23.7 PPG in these three away games — and their defense allows 33.0 PPG and 409.3 total YPG. Playing away from Fayetteville has been a problem for this program — they have won just once in their last fifteen road games since 2018. This team has won only one road game in their seven played under head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas has lost both of their two true road games when playing in a hostile environment rather than a neutral field. Now they are favored despite having failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored. LSU may have lost last week — but they feel good about themselves for holding the potent Crimson Tide offense to just 308 total yards. The Tigers stuffed Alabama in 14 of their 22 rushing attempts while holding them to only 3.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. LSU dialed up their pressure by generating four sacks and eight tackles for loss against the Tide — and Razorbacks’ QB K.J. Jefferson struggles against the blitz. While the Tigers are playing for a lame-duck head coach in Ed Orgeron who will not be retained at the end of the season, I expect the players to rally around him and each other in this night game in Death Valley. This group does not want the embarrassment of not becoming bowl eligible. As it is, LSU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And while the offense has only scored 31 points in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Orgeron is looking for a spark on offense which is why freshman quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will get plenty of snaps tonight — and he has a cannon for an arm.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Arkansas is just 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games when favored. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 20* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). THE SITUATION: Baylor (7-2) looks to rebound from a 30-28 upset loss at TCU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 52-21 victory against Texas Tech as a 19.5-point favorite as a 19.5-point favorite on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners are right in the heart of the College Football Playoff conversation with their unbeaten record — but this will be the most difficult game they have played so far this year when considering that their eight FBS opponents have combined for a 28-45 record (not including their victory against Western Carolina from the FCS). Their best win up to this point is probably their six-point win against a 6-3 Kansas State team. Five of their victories have been by a touchdown or less. Even with this soft schedule, the play of the Oklahoma defense once again appears to be a liability. They allow 24.2 Points-Per-Game and 383.9 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking 60th and 63rd in the nation. Injuries have not helped matters — but this remains a defense that is allowing 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt from opposing quarterbacks while ranking 113th in the nation by giving up 272.9 passing YPG. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch lost two cornerbacks to the NFL from last year — and sophomore cornerback Woodi Washington has been out with an injury — but these are ominous numbers heading into the most difficult part of their schedule. They do come off a bye week — but they are just 6-6 ATS in the 12 games under Lincoln Riley with an extra week to prepare. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. And while freshman quarterback Caleb Williams passed for over 400 yards against the Red Raiders to lead an offense that generated 541 yards, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 375 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma has scored at least 37 points in seven straight games after their narrow 16-13 escape at home against West Virginia in early September — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in five straight games. Baylor may have been caught looking ahead to this showdown last week in their upset loss to a Horned Frogs team motivated to play for head coach Gary Patterson who resigned after their previous game. The Bears can remove the bad taste in their mouth from that disappointing performance by stunning the undefeated Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a Big 12 rival where they were laying at least six points. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Bears need to tighten up on defense after allowing TCU gain 570 yards. Baylor has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards. Head coach Dave Aranda has talent on defense with ten starters back from the COVID-marred rookie campaign with the team last year. The Bears had not allowed 30 points before last week with only Iowa State scoring more than 24 points against them. Baylor has a potent rushing attack that averages 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry and ranks seventh in the nation by generating 230.9 rushing YPG. By not asking junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon to do too much, the Bears are averaging a healthy 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, Baylor has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Aranda schemed a defense last year that limited the Sooners to just 269 total yards and 10 points in the first half in a 27-14 Oklahoma victory in Norman. Now the Bears host Oklahoma in Norman where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Sooners. The inexperience of Williams at quarterback may lead to some nervy moments for the National Championship aspirations of Oklahoma. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (5-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 31-17 upset win against Colorado State as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (5-4) has won two in a row with their 40-14 upset win at Fresno State as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys had their second-highest scoring game this season with the 31 points they put on the scoreboard against the Rams. They are still averaging just 23.0 PPG this season — and they have scored 18.0 PPG in their last three games even after their 31 points last week. Wyoming has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory.  And while the Cowboys generated 477 yards of offense last week, the Under is a decisive 40-18-1 in their last 59 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The strength of Wyoming is their defense as they hold their opponents to 21.3 PPG. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 22 or fewer points — and their last three opponents averaged just 19.3 PPG. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Wyoming is fourth in the nation by allowing only 157.9 passing YPG — and they rank 22nd in Opponent’s Pass Success Rate so the low counting pass yards they allow is not purely a function of slower-paced games. The Cowboys do run the ball 63% of the time — so the clock will keep running tonight. Head coach Craig Bohl has moved to Levi Williams as his starting quarterback in the last two games — but he is completing only 55% of his passes. Wyoming goes on the road where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 road games as an underdog. Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 24 points in eight of their last nine games — and they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG. Boise State gained 470 yards against the Cowboys — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This is not a good matchup for the Broncos since they are so dependent on the arm of quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Boise State only averages 110 rushing YPG with their rushers averaging 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry. Not only are they 117th in rushing YPG but they are 114th in Rush Success Rate. They host this game where they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total on the blue turf against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Expect plenty of stalled drives tonight as Wyoming and Boise State rank 20th and 29th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drives. The last four meetings between these two teams have averaged only 37 combined points. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against each other — and there have been 6 straight Unders between these two teams when playing in Boise. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (114) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (113). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-7) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 17-9 win against Houston as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (6-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 34-31 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami should build off their recent momentum as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games in the second half of the season. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when getting 7.5 to 14 points as an underdog. The biggest difference between Brian Flores' team this season and last year has been the turnover game. Miami led the NFL by forcing 29 turnovers last season. The Dolphins have forced only 13 turnovers in their nine games this year — but they have also committed 18 turnovers to saddle them with a -5 net turnover margin. Now they host a Ravens team that has only forced seven turnovers this season — and they have not had more than one takeaway in six straight games. If Miami can just stay even in the turnover battle, they should be competitive tonight. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last four games at home, the Ravens return to the road where they have scored 23 or fewer points in two of their three games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a game-time decision with his finger injury that kept him out last week. Jacoby Brissett is one of the better backups in the league — so if he plays, the Dolphins should still be competitive after he led them to victory against the Texans last week. Brissett also kept Miami alive in a tight game in Las Vegas earlier in the season before the Raiders won in overtime by a 30-27 score. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. 10* NFL Baltimore-Miami Fox-TV Special with the Miami Dolphins (114) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (113) and the Miami Dolphins (114). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 34-31 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Miami (2-7) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 17-9 win against Houston as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. Baltimore has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. The Ravens did gain 500 yards of offense against the Vikings but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 adds in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are scoring 23.0 Points-Per-Game in their three previous games away from home — and they have only topped that number once this season. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. Miami has played 38 of their last 58 games Under the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. Tua Tagovailoa will be active tonight but he is not expected to start with his finger injury still limiting the throws he can make in this offense. Jacoby Brissett passed for 244 yards against the Texans — yet the Dolphins managed only 262 total yards due to their anemic rushing attack. The Dolphins score only 15.5 PPG at home with a 273.3 total YPG average.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (113) and the Miami Dolphins (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2) has won five of their last six games with their 54-29 win at Duke as a 21-point road favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (5-4) has won two of their last three games with their 58-55 win against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 home games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. Led by quarterback Kenny Pickett, the Panthers generated 638 yards of offense against the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Pitt returns home where they are scoring 46.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging 569.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +23.4 PPG due to a defense that is only allowing 22.6 PPG. Despite the Panthers being coached by a defensive guru in Pat Narduzzi, they are thriving due to the play of their offense and the emergence of Pickett at quarterback. Pitt has averaged 562.3 total YPG in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last three contests. We had North Carolina last Saturday in their victory against the Demon Deacons — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against an ACC foe and in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are winless in three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games. The weak link for North Carolina is their defense that allows 35.3 PPG and 404.3 total YPG on the road. The Tar Heels do not disrupt the quarterback — they rank 109th in the Pass Rush Pressure Rate. They also don’t protect their quarterback enough with their Havoc Rate Allowed that ranks 106th — and Narduzzi’s defense is 17th in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB North Carolina-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 15-10 upset victory at Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (3-5) has lost three in a row with their 33-22 loss to San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing better football due to improved play from their offensive line. After not rushing for more than 75 yards in their first four games, the Steelers have rushed for at least 115 yards in their three-game winning streak while averaging 127 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Rookie running back Najee Harris has been the main beneficiary as he has gained 294 rushing yards in these last three games. They have averaged 368.7 total YPG during their winning streak — a +38.4 net YPG bump over their season average. The improved rushing attack has taken some of the pressure off Ben Roethlisberger. While the veteran quarterback is in decline, he still can be effective in leading the passing game. He has not thrown an interception in 99 straight passes. Pittsburgh should build off their momentum tonight. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team continues to be built around their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 16.3 PPG and 329.7 total YPG. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 10th in the NFL in the DVOA metric by the Football Outsiders. They rank 6th in DVOA run defense which will offer a challenge to the Bears’ offense. Chicago is 30th in offensive DVOA and last rushing DVOA. Rookie Justin Fields may have played his best game as a pro last week against the 49ers. He completed 19 of 27 passes but for just 175 yards. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor finally got Fields using his legs in some designed run plays as he gained 103 yards on ten carries. Head coach Matt Nagy was not on the sidelines last week due to his testing positive for COVID. Nagy is back with the team tonight — so he may impose the offensive game plan for Patrick Mahomes he borrowed from Andy Reid when getting the Bears coaching gig. After failing with Mitchell Trubisky, Nagy has not gotten much from Fields. The former Ohio State star is completing only 59.5% of his passes and averaging 123.9 passing YPG. He has only thrown three touchdown passes but he has seven interceptions. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after a loss at home. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is averaging only 15.4 PPG and 264.0 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 10.8 PPG and 233.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The play of the Chicago defense is a concern tonight as well with linebacker Khalil Mack out with a foot injury and safety Eddie Jackson doubtful with a hamstring. The loss of Mack particularly stings since he is vital to the Bears’ run defense. Even with Mack, the Bears rank 18th in DVOA run defense. Chicago allowed 467 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games under Tomlin. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost three in a row with their 33-22 loss to San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 15-10 upset victory at Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss - and they have palled 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Chicago has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Bears have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Chicago is 30th in offensive DVOA and last rushing DVOA. Rookie Justin Fields may have played his best game as a pro last week against the 49ers. He completed 19 of 27 passes but for just 175 yards. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor finally got Fields using his legs in some designed run plays as he gained 103 yards on ten carries. Head coach Matt Nagy was not on the sidelines last week due to his testing positive for COVID. Nagy is back with the team tonight — so he may impose the offensive game plan for Patrick Mahomes he borrowed from Andy Reid when getting the Bears coaching gig. After failing with Mitchell Trubisky, Nagy has not gotten much from Fields. The former Ohio State star is completing only 59.5% of his passes and averaging 123.9 passing YPG. He has only thrown three touchdown passes but he has seven interceptions. The Bears have played 4 straight Unders after passing for no more than 150 yards in their last game. Chicago is averaging only 15.4 PPG and 264.0 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 10.8 PPG and 233.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record, the Bears have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Pittsburgh has seen the Under go 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. The Steelers generated 370 yards against the Browns last week — and the Under is 36-14-2 in their last 52 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Under is also 20-8-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 29 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team continues to be built around their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 16.3 PPG and 329.7 total YPG. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 10th in the NFL in the DVOA metric by the Football Outsiders. They rank 6th in DVOA run defense which will offer a challenge to the Bears’ offense. The Steelers return home where the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games when favored — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football — and Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Chicago-Pittsburgh ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-1) has won four straight games after their 38-22 win at Houston as a 17-point favorite last week.
Tennessee (6-2) has won four straight games after their 34-31 upset win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles did not cover the 17-point spread despite the victory by two touchdowns last week — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. And while the Rams have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Rams have the best offense in the NFL according to the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders — and they are averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. They are scoring 30.6 PPG — and they have scored at least 26 points in seven of their eight games. Now they will be playing a Titans defense that has allowed at least 27 points five times. Los Angeles leads the NFL in sacks — and they added Von Miller this week in a swap with Denver at the trade deadline. Will Tennessee be able to score into the 20s without Derrick Henry who is out with a foot injury? Ryan Tannehill’s Passer Rating drops by 20 points in his Titans’ career in games when he did not have Henry available in the backfield. After pulling off three straight upsets against Buffalo and Kansas City before the Colts last week, the bubble may be about ready to burst for this team. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Titans have not allowed more than 83 rushing yards in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in two straight games. These nice run defense numbers may say more about the lack of a rushing attack from Buffalo and Kansas City than it does about the effectiveness of the Tennessee run defense. That unit ranks 28th in DVOA in run defense.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-2) has won four straight games after their 34-31 upset win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-1) has won four straight games after their 38-22 win at Houston as a 17-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tennessee has scored at least 24 points in seven straight games — but they have given up at least 27 points five times already this season. The Over is 21-8-1 in the Titans’ last 31 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after a point spread victory. The Tennessee offense will be learning to live life without running back Derrick Henry for an extended period given his foot injury. The reports this week indicate that Adrian Peterson looked good in practice after he was signed to take on the rushing duties — he should be at least serviceable. I do expect the Titans to lean more on their passing attack. Wide receiver Julio Jones is healthy again — and the reports I am seeing indicate that wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to play tonight despite being limited in practice this week. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is 6-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 8 games after a straight-up win. Matthew Stafford completed 21 of 32 passes for 305 yards with three touchdown passes in the win against the Texans last week — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Rams have the best offense in the NFL according to the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders — and they are averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. They are scoring 30.6 PPG — and they have scored at least 26 points in seven of their eight games. But Los Angeles gave up 279 passing yards to Houston last week — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. The Rams are allowing 23.5 PPG and a 412.0 total YPG in their four games at home. Their run defense ranks 18th in DVOA — so I do think Tennessee will still be able to run the ball even without Henry.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 15-5-1 in the Titans’ last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 19-13 upset loss to Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-2) has won three games in a row after their 36-27 upset win against Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are missing key players on offense. For the Falcons, it is wide receiver Calvin Ridley who is out indefinitely for personal reasons. With Julio Jones gone from the team, quarterback Matt Ryan is suddenly without reliable weapons at wide receiver. They gained only 213 yards last week against the Panthers. Atlanta has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss to an NFC South rival. To compound matters for the Falcons’ offense, Ryan is dealing with a hand injury after getting cleated last week. He has stitches in his hand from that mishap which may impact his throwing. The Atlanta defense is improving under defensive coordinator Dean Pees. They have held their last three opponents to 22.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Falcons have also not allowed an opposing rusher to gain at least 100 yards on the ground in 23 straight games — so Alvin Kamara may not be able to carry the Saints offense with his rushing. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight Unders after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The New Orleans offense will be quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian given the season-ending knee injury to Jameis Winston. The Saints’ offense has already been limited this season with Michael Thomas on the shelf — and the wide receiver will not be returning this season after a mishap in his recovery. New Orleans is averaging 25.1 PPG but they rank 29th in the NFL by averaging only 305.9 total YPG and second-to-last with a 180.9 passing YPG mark. They are last in the league with just 15 Big Plays on offense this year. The Saints defense surrendered 421 yards last week to the Buccaneers — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans holds their opponents to just 18.3 PPG and 344.3 total YPG. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC South opponents. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (399) and the Washington Huskies (400). THE SITUATION: Oregon (7-1) has won three straight games after their 52-29 win against Colorado as a 24.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (4-4) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset win at Stanford as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington held the Cardinal to just 261 total yards in the victory. The Huskies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Washington only gives up 146.9 passing YPG this season — the lowest mark in the nation. The Huskies give up 18.9 PPG and 325.4 total YPG — ranking tied for 18th and 24th in the nation. But the Washington offense is limited after scoring just 19.3 PPG and averaging 315.7 total YPG in their last three games. The Huskies have played 5 straight Unders against winning teams. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they generated 568 total yards against the Buffaloes last week, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Ducks defense has not allowed more than 117 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game.  They are holding their opponents to just 3.5 rushing Yards-Per-Carry which will put pressure on Huskies’ quarterback Dylan Morris to move the ball with his arm. Oregon has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Weather will play a role in Seattle tonight — rain is expected with winds at 14 MPH and gusting to 22 MPH. Both of these teams already have limited vertical passing attacks — so the weather will allow both defenses to cheat another defender in the box. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at Washington. 10* CFB Oregon-Washington ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (399) and the Washington Huskies (400). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) enters this game coming off three 28-23 upset victory at Nebraska as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday. Michigan State (8-0) comes off a 37-33 upset win at home against Michigan as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue committed five turnovers two weeks ago in a loss to Wisconsin — but they turned the turnover tables on the Cornhuskers last week by generating a +4 net turnover margin. The Boilermakers handed Iowa their first loss of the season by a 24-7 score in Iowa City three weeks ago. Purdue returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog. The Boilermakers are stout on defense. They hold their opponents to just 17.1 Points-Per-Game and 313.8 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking tied for 10th and 17th in the nation respectively. They also rank 16th in the nation by averaging 307.0 passing  YPG. This combination of defense and a potent passing attack makes them a dangerous underdog. Purdue has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They may be catching Michigan State on a hangover after their emotional comeback victory against their hated rival Michigan last week. The Spartans were trailing by two touchdowns in the second half before outscoring the Wolverines by a 23-3 margin to pull out the victory. Michigan State has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Spartans defeated Michigan despite getting outgained by -157 net yards. Michigan State surrendered 552 yards in that game. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense. Opponents average 424.6 total YPG against them — ranking 101st in the nation. Sparty is particularly vulnerable against the pass as they rank 127th in the nation by allowing 300.5 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State ranks third in the first College Football Playoff poll which may add some pressure on them for this game as they go from feisty overachievers under second-year head coach Mel Tucker to controlling their destiny to reach the playoffs. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at Purdue. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (4-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 44-34 loss at Notre Dame as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 45-7 victory at home against Duke as a 16-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Demon Deacons raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead last week against the Blue Devils — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after taking at least a 24 point lead at halftime of their last game. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. Quarterback Sam Hartman had another big game as he completed 24 of 37 passes for 402 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that generated 677 total yards. But Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Turnover luck has helped the Demon Deacons cause as they have not committed more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in five straight games. Wake Forest has benefited from a soft schedule up to this point. Only Virginia and Army are FBS opponents that they have beaten that currently have winning records. While the Demon Deacons score plenty of points, that has overshadowed their suspect play on defense. They rank 99th in the FBS by allowing 421.5 total YPG. They have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.3 PPG and 474.4 total YPG. In their three road games, they have allowed their home hosts to score 36.7 PPG and average 538.3 total YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass (with their home games at Truist Field being played on field turf). North Carolina may possess the most potent offense that they placed all season. The Tar Heels are 12th in the nation by averaging 482.8 total YPG. Sam Howell completed 24 of 31 passes for 341 yards and added another 101 yards on the ground in their loss in South Bend. North Carolina has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. The Tar Heels did outgain the Fighting Irish last week by 39 yards by generating 564 yards of offense. They should be able to move the ball at will against the Demon Deacons. This team began the season with National Championship aspirations but an opening loss to Virginia Tech changed their realistic expectations. Ruining Wake Forest’s perfect season would give this group something to hang their hats on. North Carolina has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Tar Heels return home where they are 4-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.2 PPG. They average 45.2 PPG and 512.5 total YPG at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest could not stop Howell and the Tar Heels’ offense last season — they lost in Chapel Hill by a 59-53 score. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at North Carolina. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 34-31 upset loss in overtime to Tennessee on Sunday. New York (2-5) comes off a 31-24 upset win against Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Perhaps the best thing for this Indianapolis team is to get back on the field as soon as possible after the sting of losing their second game this season to their AFC South divisional rival in the Titans. Head coach Frank Reich should have his team ready to go in a must-win game for them to keep their playoff hopes alive. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home. They are also 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Colts got lulled away from their rushing attack in that game as they ran the ball only 20 times for 83 yards. Expect more touches for Jonathan Taylor tonight — and Indy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Colts should have a big edge in the turnover battle which should help them cover a double-digit spread. Indianapolis ranks second in the NFL with a +8 net turnover margin — and the Jets are 30th in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. Enter Mike White who will be making his second career start on a short week. He surprised in his first career start on Sunday by completing 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes — but he did throw two interceptions. The former Western Kentucky quarterback lived off short passes against the Bengals -- running back Michael Carter had 14 targets with nine receptions and running back Ty Johnson had another five catches from six targets out of the backfield. Jamison Crowder also had eight catches for 84 yards coming mostly from short routes. With White under center again this week since Zach Wilson is still injured, the Colts’ defense will adjust to this short game and dare White to throw the ball vertically down the field — and the Jets will once again be without their best deep threat in Corey Davis. Indianapolis has the fifth-best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they lead the league in Run Defense DVOA. The Jets are 28th in DVOA Offense with their best work coming from their rushing attack that ranks 19th in DVOA — but running the ball against the Colts will be problematic as they hold their guests to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. New York scores only 16.3 PPG and averages 235.6 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 11.8 PPG and 235.6 total YPG in their four road games. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are just 9-23-3 ATS in their last 35 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. New York’s defense is an issue after allowing their last three opponents to score 37.3 PPG and generate 439.7 total YPG. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New York goes back on the road on this short week where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -19.7 PPG. They allow their home hosts to score 31.5 PPG. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 14-33-4 ATS in their last 51 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and the Colts are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) comes off a 31-24 upset win against Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indianapolis (3-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 34-31 upset loss in overtime to Tennessee on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Bengals to just 318 total yards in the upset win. New York has played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Mike White surprised in his first career start by completing 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes. The former Western Kentucky quarterback lived off short passes against the Bengals -- running back Michael Carter had 14 targets with nine receptions and running back Ty Johnson had another five catches from six targets out of the backfield. Jamison Crowder also had eight catches for 84 yards coming mostly from short routes. With White under center again this week since Zach Wilson is still injured, the Colts’ defense will adjust to this short game and dare White to throw the ball vertically down the field — and the Jets will once again be without their best deep threat in Corey Davis. Indianapolis has the fifth-best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they lead the league in Run Defense DVOA. The Jets are 28th in DVOA Offense with their best work coming from their rushing attack that ranks 19th in DVOA — but running the ball against the Colts will be problematic as they hold their guests to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. New York scores only 16.3 PPG and averages 235.6 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 11.8 PPG and 235.6 total YPG in their four road games. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New York has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. And while rookie head coach Robert Saleh’s team has attempted 42 and 49 passes in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. Saleh is a defensive head coach after serving for years as the defensive coordinator in San Francisco — he does not want this game on the road to get into a shootout. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Colts have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Indy offense will be without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton once again as he goes through the concussion protocol. In their 3-point loss to the Titans, the Colts gained only 307 total yards. They only average 346.3 total YPG in their four games at home. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 14 points — and they have played 4 straight Unders as a favorite laying more than 10 points in all situations. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (3-4) has won two in a row after their 24-17 upset win at Ball State as a 3.5-point underdog on October 23rd. Ohio (1-7) has lost three in a row after their 34-27 loss to Kent State as a 5-point underdog on October 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks held the Cardinals to just 329 total yards in that victory. Miami (OH) has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Additionally, the RedHawks have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory against a conference rival. Miami did get quarterback Brett Gabbert back last week after the third-year sophomore quarterback missed the previous two games to injury. While he completed 20 of 24 passes in the win, he is still only completing 58.8% of his passes this season. The RedHawks are scoring only 21.1 PPG — and that average drops to just 17.2 PPG along with a 319.2 total YPG mark in their three previous road games with Gabbert the starter in two of those games. Gabbert is an upgrade over fourth-year sophomore A.J. Mayer  — but Brett is not the prospect that his brother, Blaine, was. Miami (OH) has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The RedHawks have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored. Ohio has palled 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss. And while the Bobcats generated 457 yards in their loss to the Golden Flashes, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This has been a lost season for the Bobcats after the surprise retirement of head coach Frank Solich in July after serving as the head coach for the program for 16 years. Offensive coordinator Tim Albin inked a four-year deal to become the new head coach — but this team is scoring only 21.1 PPG while averaging just 360.1 total YPG. Ohio wants to run the football — they average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Sophomore Kurtis Rourke, another younger brother of a quarterback with higher stature as he follows Nathan’s career as the Bobcats’ signal-caller, is overseeing an offense that averages just 166.8 passing YPG, 115th in the nation. Rourke will probably struggle against this RedHawks team that ranks 15th in the nation in Havoc Rate. Ohio stays at home where they have played13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will be chilly in Athens tonight with temperates dropping into the 30s as the game goes on. Cold weather does not help the passing game — especially when the players are not the best in the world in adapting to harder footballs. Ohio has played 4 straight Unders against Mid-American Conference opponents — and the Under is 10-3-1 in Miami (OH)’s last 14 games in November. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (277) and the Kansas City Chiefs (278). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-3 upset win against Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week. Kansas City (3-4) looks to rebound from their 27-3 upset loss at Tennessee last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They should be playing catch-up in this game — this will not be a defensive struggle. The Giants are scoring 19.9 PPG — and they see that mark rise to a 25.3 PPG mark in their three games on the road this season. While the Chiefs are just 1-2 at home this season, New York has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Giants have also played 4 of their last 6 games on the road Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 15 points in their last game. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while Kansas City allowed 266 passing yards to the Titans last week en route to their 369 total yards of offense, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after giving up at least 350 total yards in their last contest. The Chiefs' defense cannot stop anyone — they are allowing 29.0 Points-Per-Game. Using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the second-to-worst defense in the league while ranking 31st in both run defense and pass defense.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total when the Total is set at 45.5 or higher. I think the Giants score at least 20 points with the Chiefs scoring at least 30 points -- so that floor should be enough to cash over tickets. This game looks reminiscent of the Giants’ 44-20 loss at Dallas on October 10th with the Total set at 53 — and the Cowboys’ defense is significantly better than the Kansas City defense. 10* NFL NY Giants-Kansas City ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-3 upset win against Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week. Kansas City (3-4) looks to rebound from their 27-3 upset loss at Tennessee last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Many observers expect the Chiefs to take out the frustration of their 24-point loss last week — but Kansas City just needs a win more than they need to make any statements. Be careful laying double-digit points with a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Kansas City will probably still make the playoffs — but they have some fundamental problems they need to address. Their defense cannot stop anyone — they are allowing 29.0 Points-Per-Game. Using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the second-to-worst defense in the league while ranking 31st in both run defense and pass defense. The Titans gained 369 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. To make matters worse, Kansas City is turning the ball over too much. Patrick Mahomes has nine interceptions already this season. Mahomes is great — but he is trying to do too much behind a rebuilding offensive line. He might have been lulled into thinking he can consistently avoid trouble after only throwing six interceptions last year. He was very fortunate last season since he had another eight likely interceptions that were dropped by the defensive player. Kansas City has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in at least four straight games. The Chiefs have attempted at least 47 passes in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. Kansas City needs to run the ball more — we will see if that happens. They only ran the ball 13 times last week for 77 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Chiefs return home where they have lost two of their three games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. New York will be confident entering this game after playing their best game of the season last week. But with just two wins on the season, there is little room for complacency for this group in the second season under head coach Joe Judge. They held the Panthers to just 173 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The Giants have been a surprisingly reliable team on the road with Daniel Jones at QB. New York has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games as an underdog including twelve of the last sixteen of those circumstances. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5. or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when laying the points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Dallas Cowboys (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-1) has won five in a row after their 35-29 win at New England in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Minnesota (3-3) has won three of their last four games after their 34-28 win at Carolina in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even if it is Cooper Rush at quarterback tonight, I like the Over. Dak Prescott will go through his pre-game gyration workout to see if he thinks he can give it a go. I suspect he will. But, I am handicapping this game on the assumption that Rush will make his first career NFL start. The former Central Michigan star was a bit of a gunslinger in college — and he has had two weeks to prepare for this game getting all the first-team reps. And offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has had the extra week to prepare a specific game plan to take advantage of his skillset. The Over is 14-3-1 in the Cowboys’ last 18 games after a bye week. Rush has the benefit of throwing to the terrific Dallas wide receivers with CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and the newly healthy Michael Gallup. Left tackle Tyron Smith returns to anchor the offensive line. And the Cowboys still have running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard leading an attack that is generating 164 rushing YPG. The Vikings are allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank just 24th in the league in run defense according to the DVOA metrics used by the Football Outsiders. So while I don’t expect Dallas to score at least 35 points for the fifth time this season if Rush is under center, I do think he can get them in the high-20s. As it is, the Cowboys have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Furthermore, Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. Minnesota should score their share of points against this Cowboys defense that is allowing 24.3 PPG with three of their opponents scoring at least 28 points. Kirk Cousins is enjoying a big season that is going mostly under the radar. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes only two interceptions. He completed 33 of 48 passes against the Panthers for 373 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the offense to 571 total yards. The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. Minnesota has played 5 straight games Over the Total after their bye week.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Cowboys have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total against the NFC. Dallas has also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. I did note that while the news of Prescott’s potential absence moved the Cowboys from being a small favorite to a 3-point dog, the Total barely moved. With either Prescott or Rush at QB, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Dallas Cowboys (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (275). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-3) has won three of their last four games after their 34-28 win at Carolina in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Dallas (5-1) has won five in a row after their 35-29 win at New England in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: I am assuming that Dak Prescott will play — although his calf injury may limit his ability to scramble and keep him from being close to 100%. If the Cowboys opt to rest him another week and play Cooper Rush at quarterback, that only makes this Minnesota investment more attractive. The Vikings are underrated after three losses all decided by seven points or less. Minnesota is outgaining their opponents by +55.9 net Yards-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after a win by six points or less. In generating 571 yards against the Panthers, the Vikings rushed for 198 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. Kirk Cousins is enjoying a big season that is going mostly under the radar. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes only two interceptions. Minnesota returns home where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Vikings are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games in October. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing a game where at least 50 points were scored. The Cowboys gained 567 yards in that game against the Patriots — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Dallas outgained New England by +232 net yards despite needing overtime to pull out that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards including failing to cover the point spread in five of these last seven circumstances. And while the offense is averaging 7.2 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last three games — a situation made even worse if Rush is their quarterback.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played at Minnesota. Even with a healthy Prescott, I was liking the Vikings in this spot all week. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-2) has won two games in a row — both on the road — after a 13-10 win at Seattle as a 6-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay (6-1) has won four in a row after their 38-3 victory against Chicago last Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay benefited from an overwhelmed rookie at quarterback in the Bears Justin Fields who helped them earn a +4 net turnover margin in that game. But the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Now this team goes on the road where they are being outscored this season by -0.6 net Points-Per-Game. Tom Brady and company lost by 10 points in Los Angeles against the Rams before beating New England in overtime by two points and defeating Philadelphia by just six points 2 1/2 weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. The high-powered Patriots offense is scoring only 23.7 PPG in their three road games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been piling up style points against weak competition — they have played Miami, the Eagles, and the Bears in the last three weeks after the Brady versus Bill Belichick overtime thriller in Foxboro that began their winning streak. The Bucs are not at full health with Antonio Brown out at wide receiver and the secondary banged up including last year’s starting cornerbacks, Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting on IR. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, cornerback Richard Sherman, and linebacker Lavonte David are among the players listed as questionable. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games after winning their last two games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has transformed this team into a defense-first group that is risk-averse on offense. The Saints defense is allowing only 16.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the Football Outsiders DVOA metric for defense. Jameis Winston has been underappreciated at quarterback this season — he has not turned the ball over in his six of his games and he has 10 touchdown passes without an interception in the red zone. The organization made a savvy trade this week by re-acquiring veteran running back Mark Ingram from Houston to spell Alvin Kamara who cannot keep touching the ball 30 times per game. Now New Orleans returns to the Big Easy for just the second time all season given a front-loaded road schedule compounded by them playing their opening game in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. The Saints have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games as an underdog including seven of their last eight games. And in their last 9 home games as an underdog, New Orleans has covered the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints' defense did a good job of containing Brady in their three games last year. While the Buccaneers beat New Orleans in the playoffs last year by a 30-20 score as a 2.5-point underdog, they lost both regular-season games while scoring just 26 combined points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Buccaneers — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (270) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (269). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in their 34-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog. New England (3-4) has won two of their last three games after their 54-13 win against the New York Jets as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should respond with a vengeance after getting embarrassed by the Ravens. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after their bye week. The team is getting healthier with linebacker Drue Tranquill and safety Nasir Adderley returning to action and running back Austin Ekeler expected to be active for this game. They return home where they are scoring 30.7 PPG and generating 427.0 total YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored. The Chargers are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October. New England dominated the Jets last week — but all their wins have been against rookie quarterbacks in Zach Jones twice and Davis Mills. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are also 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers’ Justin Herbert is no rookie any longer — and he will be motivated to exact revenge from the 45-0 thumping Bill Belichick and the Patriots exacted on him and his team on December 6th last year. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Los Angeles Chargers (270) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (264). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-3) has won two games in a row after their 23-20 win in overtime against Seattle as a 5.5-point favorite back on Monday Night Football on October 17th. Cleveland (4-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 17-14 win against Denver as a 1.5-point favorite back on Thursday Night Football on October 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win at home. The Steelers are undervalued right now because Ben Roethlisberger is underrated at this point in his career. While Big Ben’s fantasy value has declined as he continues to age, he is a savvy veteran under center who can still move the offense when he has to. Pittsburgh upset Buffalo to begin the season. Roethlisberger’s problems have more to do with the Steelers' offensive line — but that unit is improving which also helps rookie running back Najee Harris make an impact on the game. Pittsburgh still has a top-ten defense — they rank ninth in Football Outsiders DVOA metric and they also rank ninth in run defense DVOA. The Steelers are dangerous underdogs under head coach Mike Tomlin — they are 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 games as the dog while covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the over/under in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Baker Mayfield will be under center again after backup Case Keenum looked just as capable in leading the offense against the Broncos — but he is still not at full strength with that bum shoulder. The Browns stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total in the 42.5-49 point range. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Roethlisberger has a 24-3-1 straight-up record against the Browns in his career after growing up in the Cleveland suburbs. Cleveland is just 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 games against AFC North competition. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.