At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Last week, the Bears were upset, 38-20, by their rival, Green Bay, while Tampa upset Minnesota, 20-17.  If one looks at the yardage stats, however, one will see that Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards (329-311), while Tampa was outgained by 127 (369-242).  The difference in the two games, of course, was turnovers.  Chicago committed 2 turnovers (vs 0 for Green Bay), while Tampa forced 3 turnovers, and didn't commit any, itself.  We'll fade Tampa off its upset win, as home favorites have covered just 31% since 1980 in Week 2 off an upset road victory, if its opponent was off an upset defeat.  Grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Detroit.  The Lions upset the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs to kick off their season.  But off that upset victory, we'll fade Detroit on Sunday.  Indeed, over the past 43 years, home favorites have covered just 30.7% off an upset win over the defending Super Bowl champs, if they were matched up against a foe off an upset defeat.  With Seattle in off an upset loss at the hands of the Rams, we'll grab the points with Pete Carroll's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Josh Allen could not have played worse last Monday, as he committed a key fumble, and also threw 3 interceptions.  We didn't mind, as we had a big play on the Jets.  But we'll switch gears, and take Buffalo to bounce back here, at home, in Week 2.  The Bills are a solid 20-6 ATS as a home favorite off a road loss, when playing an opponent off a win.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers have been installed as a small road favorite following their upset win, 38-20, over division rival, Chicago.  We'll fade Green Bay, as road favorites have covered just 33% since 1980 in Week 2 off upset wins on the road over a division rival to start the season.  I look for Green Bay to have a letdown on Sunday.  Take Atlanta.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii/Oregon game Under the total.  Both of these teams come into this Saturday night game off Unders:  the Ducks outlasted the Texas Tech Red Raiders, 38-30, and the game went under by a half-point, while Hawaii defeated Albany, 31-20, and that game went under by 5.5 points.  The Rainbows have historically been an Over team at home, but have gone Under more often than not on the road.  We'll take the UNDER, as it falls into an 81-29 Totals system of mine

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Bowling Green.  This will be the 3rd (and final) game of Jim Harbaugh's suspension for alleged NCAA violations.  The Wolves have won both games in his absence, but have failed to cover the spread.  I like Michigan to break through today with an ATS win, as it is 12-0 ATS as a home favorite of -14 (or more) points off back to back ATS defeats.  Lay the wood.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Brigham Young Cougars + the points over Arkansas.  These two teams met last season in Provo, and the Razorbacks won, 52-35.  We'll take the revenge-minded Cougars + the points in Fayetteville, as BYU is 22-4 ATS as revenge-minded road underdogs, including 8-0 ATS its last eight in this situation.  Grab the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Syracuse.  The Orange have been stellar defensively to start the season.  They allowed just 7 points last week in a 48-7 victory over Western Michigan, and shut out Colgate, 65-0, to kick off the season.  They're now favored by a small amount on the road vs. Purdue, which won, 24-17, as a 1-point favorite last week at Virginia Tech.  This is a revenge match for Purdue, which lost, 32-29, at Syracuse last season.  We'll take the home underdog Boilermakers, as home dogs off a SU/ATS win have cashed 66% since 1981 in non-conference games vs. foes that gave up less than 10 points in their two previous games.  Additionally, the Orange are 14-28-1 ATS in their last 43 games vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take the Boilermakers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks + the points over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats pulled off a huge upset of the Pitt Panthers last week, 27-21.  But off that upset win, we'll fade the Bearcats as a big favorite on Saturday.  The RedHawks are playing with revenge from a 38-17 loss last season.  And revenge-minded double digit underdogs have 65.6% since 1980 against non-conference foes off an upset win as a 3.5-point (or greater) underdog.  Take Miami-Ohio.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Western Kentucky.  Ryan Day's Buckeyes have gotten off to a slow start this season -- at least in Las Vegas -- as they're 0-2 ATS (though 2-0 SU).  And they've failed to cover the point spread by double-digits in each win.  Notwithstanding this lack of point spread success, we'll take Ohio State on Saturday, as it's 8-0 ATS its last eight (and 50-38-2 ATS its last 90) off back to back point spread defeats.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers have been installed as a favorite of more than a TD vs. East Carolina, and we'll happily take the underdog Pirates, as Appalachian State is a horrid 0-13 ATS its last 13 when priced from +4 to -8.5 points.  Take East Carolina.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Duke.  The Duke Blue Devils are 2-0 and ranked #21 in the country, and own an impressive win over then-No. 9 Clemson. On Saturday, the Blue Devils will host a Northwestern team in transition this season following the firing of longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats and Blue Devils have met each of the previous two seasons, and six of the last eight. And what’s most unusual is that Duke has won outright as an underdog in each of the last four meetings, including 31-23 as a double-digit road underdog last season. This year, of course, it’s Northwestern catching double-digits, and I’ll take the points with the Wildcats. For technical support, consider that teams playing with revenge that were upset in each of the previous three meetings have covered 58.3% the past 43 years, including 34-18-1 ATS, 65%, on the road. I know that Duke has been an ATM machine under 2nd-year head coach Mike Elko, as it’s gone 10-3 ATS. But it was only favored by more than 10 points one other time, and it failed to cover that game vs. Boston College as an 11.5-point favorite. Here, it’s laying considerably more than that, and my numbers say It’s too many points. Take Northwestern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts/Eastern Michigan game UNDER the total.  The Minutemen have gone Over the total in three straight games to start the season, as their first three games totaled 71, 73 and 69 points.  Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan has played each of its games Under the total, including a 25-6 loss at Minnesota last week, which went Under by 16.5 points.  I look for UMass to play a relatively low-scoring game vs. the Eagles on Saturday afternoon, as teams off 3+ Overs have gone 561-497 Under the total, including 139-106 UNDER if their opponent was off back to back Unders.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  The Badgers were upset by the Washington State Cougars, 31-22, as a 5.5-point road favorite last Saturday.  And that was the 2nd straight ATS defeat for Luke Fickell's men.  We'll lay the points with Wisky in this game, as favorites of 14+ points have covered 83% since 1980 in Week 3, if they were off an upset loss, and were 0-2 ATS on the season.  Last year, Wisconsin was upset four times, and was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS off those upset defeats, winning by an average of 28 points (and covering by an average of 14.25).  This will be a rout.  Take the Badgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Kansas State.  The Tigers had a scare last week, as it won, 23-19, as a 21-point home favorite vs. Middle Tennessee.  This Saturday, it will be a home underdog vs. the 15th-ranked Wildcats, who are 2-0 SU/ATS. I love Missouri in this game, as it's covered 75% over the past 43 years as a home dog off an ATS loss vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, K-State is a wallet-crushing 7-19 ATS on the non-conference road when not getting 17+ points, including 3-7 ATS as a road favorite.  Take Missouri.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the OVER in the Ohio/Iowa State game.  These two teams' games have averaged 33.8 ppg this season, and all five of those games went under the total.  That has led to this O/U line being depressed, and my math says the value is clearly on the Over.  MAC Conference home teams have gone OVER the total 58.1% in non-conference games, and we'll look for a relatively high-scoring game on Saturday.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls + the points over Liberty.  The Bulls was shocked last week in an upset home loss to Fordham, 40-37, as a 22.5-point favorite.  The Bulls are now installed as a home underdog vs. the 2-0 SU/ATS Flames, and we'll grab the points, as home dogs have cashed 60% since 1980 off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite if matched up against a non-conference foe off back to back ATS wins.  Buffalo's also cashed 82% the last 22 years as underdogs vs. non-conference foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Bulls.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Florida State.  The Seminoles have sprinted out to a 2-0 SU/ATS start with blowout wins over LSU (45-24) and Southern Miss (66-13).  In contrast, the Eagles are 0-2 ATS after being upset, 27-24, by Northern Illinois in Week 1, and narrowly defeating Holy Cross last week, 31-28, as as 10.5-point favorite.  We'll fade Florida State as a big favorite on Saturday, as ACC Conference favorites of -7 (or more) points have gone 21-49-1 ATS off back to back ATS wins when playing an opponent off back to back ATS losses, including 0-9 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.  Take Boston College.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Virginia.  The Terps will host a former ACC Conference rival, Virginia, on Friday night.  Maryland left the ACC for the Big 10 Conference in 2014, but has gone 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC since then.  And the Terrapins have also been terrific since 1980 as a home favorite of -7 (or more) points vs. ACC schools, as they've covered 63.8%.  Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS as road underdogs vs. foes off back to back ATS losses.  Take Maryland minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Texas San Antonio.  QB Frank Harris suffered a toe injury in last week's win, but managed to play through the pain, and guided the Roadrunners to the win over Texas State.  He's questionable to play tonight.  Regardless, we're going to go against Texas San Antonio, and grab the points with Army.  The Black Knights play this game with revenge from a 41-38 loss at home to UTSA last season, and fall into a 228-145-5 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Roadrunners are a dismal 1-15 ATS their last 16 when priced from -6.5 to -10.5 points.  Take Army.  Good luck, a always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Jets are looking for big things this season behind newly-acquired QB Aaron Rodgers.  And it all starts tonight, in a Week 1 game against division rival, Buffalo.  We'll grab the points with New York, as Aaron Rodgers has gone 73-43-4 ATS at home in his career starts, including 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog, and 29-13 ATS in division games.  Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are a wallet-busting 9-16-1 ATS as a division road favorite.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Chargers are my Futures Pick this season at 25-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.  I expect a major leap forward for Brandon Staley’s men and one of my primary reasons is the hire of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.  When Moore was with the Cowboys the past 4 seasons, Dallas’s offense ranked among the Top 4 in the league over that 4-year stretch.  The Chargers added rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnson, who was their first round draft pick, and he’ll team up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to give 4th year QB Justin Herbert a trio of quality receivers to throw downfield.  And, of course, the Chargers have Austin Ekeler in the backfield, so the pieces are there to make a Super Bowl run.  The Chargers are 15-2-1 ATS in season openers when not favored by 4+ points, including a perfect 10-0 ATS in non-division games.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Miami.   Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Philadelphia.  The Patriots have been installed as a home underdog vs. the defending NFC Conference champs, and I’ll grab the points with Bill Belichick's men.  New England is 31-16-1 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 23-7 ATS vs. non-division foes, while Philly is a poor 10-22 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points, including 3-12 ATS in non-division games.  Even worse for the Eagles:  the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year have gone 12-32-2 ATS as a non-division road favorite of -4 or less points vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Underdog is 8-3 ATS in this series.  Take the Patriots + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  Division home dogs in the month of September are 51-29 ATS their last 80. And the underdog
in this Buckeye State rivalry has gone 20-11-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings, and 6-1 ATS in the last seven.  Take the Browns + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Auburn.  We played on the Tigers last week as our NCAA Football Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 59-14 massacre of UMass.  But off that 45-point triumph, we'll switch gears, and fade the Tigers in Berkeley on Saturday night.  Like Auburn, California's offense was in high gear last weekend, as they annihilated North Texas, 58-21, as a 5-point road favorite.  California piled up 669 yards of offense, and allowed the Mean Green just 225.  Auburn is 0-6 ATS its last six non-conference road games, and has covered just 28% as a non-conference road favorite over the last 40 seasons.  Take California + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the USC/Stanford game.  Caleb Williams & Co. exploded for 66 points in last week's thrashing of Nevada.  And that game went way over the total of 63.5.  Dating back to last season, the Trojans have now gone over the total in 10 straight games, including their previous three which totaled 80, 84 and 91 points.  And the last three meetings between these two Pac-12 rivals have also gone over the total.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, on Saturday night.  But I'm going to run the other way, and play on the UNDER, as the oddsmakers have set this number too high.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into totals systems of mine with records of 81-29, 44-11 and 55-20.  And, finally, the Trojans are 12-5 UNDER when the O/U line is greater than 67 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls + the points over Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights won their season-opener, 24-7, at home vs. Northwestern.  But Rutgers is a poor 3-12 ATS off a point spread win, including 1-8 ATS at home.  Temple also will be looking to avenge a home loss to the Scarlet Knights last season.  And the Owls are a sensational 75-34-5 ATS when playing with revenge, and priced as an underdog of less than 23 points.  Take Temple.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Oregon.  The Ducks put up 81 points last week in an 81-7 pummeling of Portland State.  We'll go against Oregon on the road in Lubbock, as NCAA road teams have covered just 36% in Week 2 since 1990 after scoring more than 65 points in their season opener.  Even better:  Texas Tech is 15-0 ATS as a home underdog priced from +4 to +18 points off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Red Raiders + the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs blew out Louisiana Tech, 38-14, last Saturday, in their season opener.  Unfortunately, SMU is a wallet breaking 0-9 ATS its last nine (and 13-25 ATS its last 38) road games off a win by 15+ points, and 6-22 ATS on the road after scoring 38+ points.  Take Oklahoma minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes + the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies walloped New Mexico, 52-10, as a 38-point home favorite last Saturday.  But the Aggies have a massive step-up in class this weekend, as they will have to go into Hard Rock Stadium to take on a Hurricanes squad riding high after its season-opening 38-3 win over Miami-Ohio.  The Hurricanes have cashed 68% since 1980 as home underdogs vs. non-conference foes, while Texas A&M is 0-15 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .600 (or better) foes, if the Aggies weren't getting more than 14 points.  Take Miami-Fla + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Colorado.  The Buffaloes pulled off a massive upset last week, when they went into Fort Worth, and knocked off the Horned Frogs, 45-42, as a 21-point underdog.  But off that stunning win, I'll look for a letdown on Saturday, as home favorites off an upset win as a double-digit underdog to kick off the season have covered just 35 percent over the last 43 years.  Grab the points with Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Notre Dame.  NC State kicked off its season with a win at Connecticut, 24-14, last week, and will welcome the 2-0 Fighting Irish into Carter-Finley Stadium for their home opener.  The Irish come into Raleigh off back to back stifling defensive performances.  Notre Dame blew out Navy, 42-3, in Dublin, and then trounced Tennessee State, 56-3, in South Bend.  But off those two games, we'll fade the Irish as a road favorite on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1980, road favorites have covered just 25% vs. winning teams in Game 3, if our road favorite didn't give up more than 7 points combined in their first two games.  NC State has won its last 13 home openers, straight-up, and I look for an upset win in this early game on Saturday.  Grab the points with NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over the Massachusetts Minutemen.  Last week, we had our College Football Game of the Month on UMass +7 over New Mexico State, and were rewarded with a 41-30 upset win by Don Brown's troops.  UMass has now matched its win total for each of the last three full seasons, as it went 1-11 in each of 2019, 2021 and 2022 (it went 0-4 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season).  But even though victorious, the Minutemen were out-yarded by the Aggies, 458-389.  The difference in the game, of course, was turnovers.  UMass held onto the ball, while New Mexico State coughed it up 3 times.  It would be folly to expect that kind of turnover luck to continue here, at Jordan-Hare Stadium.  Moreover, since 2019, the Minutemen have been miserable against the spread, including 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS when priced from +23 to +38 points.  Meanwhile, Auburn has gone 26-19 ATS in that point spread range.  Off that big upset win, we'll fade UMass, as it falls into a 'letdown' system of mine which has cashed 69.6% since 1988.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen + the points over New Mexico State.  After coaching UMass from 2004 to 2008 (the best 5-year period in UMass' football history), Don Brown returned to Amherst last season to man the sidelines again.  Last season, UMass struggled to a 1-11 record, which was the 3rd straight full season it went 1-11.  This year, UMass will look to improve on that record, and it will open the 2023 season against a team which it lost to each of the past two years.  The Aggies won, 44-27, in 2021, as a 7 point home favorite.  And then, last season, they went into Amherst, and down the Minutemen, 23-13, in a PK'em game.  We'll play on the double-revenge-minded Minutemen, as the Aggies are a poor 3-17 ATS at home when playing an opponent it defeated the previous season, including 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of less than 8 points.  And they're 4-11 ATS vs. teams they defeated each of the two previous seasons, including 1-7 ATS at home.  Grab the points with UMass.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on February 12, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to go OVER the total.  The Chiefs were the #1 offensive team in the league this past season, as they scored 29.1 ppg.  The Eagles finished #3, with an average of 28.05 ppg.  But the Chiefs failed to reach 28 points in either of their two playoff games, and both went under the total.  Indeed, the Chiefs have now gone under the total in each of their last three games by 5.5, 5.0 and 8.0 points.  But off those three games, we'll look for a much higher scoring game on Super Bowl Sunday, as Andy Reid-coached teams have gone Over the total 63% off 3+ Unders.  Additionally, NFL games with Over/Under lines of 50+ points have gone OVER the total 84.2% since 1980 if a team averaged at least 23 ppg on offense, and each of its three previous games went UNDER the total by more than 4 points.  And, finally, NFL match-ups between two exceptional offensive teams with scoring averages at 27.0 ppg (or better) have gone OVER the total 75.8% since 2003 if neither team went OVER the total in its previous game.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take Super Bowl 57 OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals to go OVER the total.  These two AFC powerhouses met three times in 2022.  The Bengals won all three meetings by a field goal.  And all three games went for a total score NORTH of 50 points, as they totaled 65, 51 and 51 points.  The Over/Under line for this AFC Championship game is south of 50 points.  And the Chiefs have gone OVER in 9 of 11 games when the O/U line was 50 points or less.  We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Sunday.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the OVER in the Philadelphia/San Francisco game.  NFC Championship games have largely been high-scoring affairs.  Indeed, the last 31 NFC Title games have gone OVER 21-8-2.  It's true that the 49ers only scored 19 points last week, and their game went Under the total.  But they've still gone OVER in 9 of 13 games since trading for Christian McCaffrey.  And they're 5-0 OVER since October 9 following a game which went Under.  Additionally, the Eagles are 14-4 OVER when matched up against .700 (or better) foes when the O/U line was 48 or less.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Dallas Cowboys/San Francisco 49ers game.  Since trading for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense has received a major lift.  Prior to the trade, the Niners averaged 20.33 ppg, and SF went Under in five of its six games.  But following the trade, the 49ers' offense has averaged 30.75 ppg, and nine of the 12 games have gone Over the total.   Likewise, since QB Dak Prescott returned from injury, the Cowboys have averaged 32.33 ppg on offense, and seven of their 12 games have gone Over the total.  Last week, both the Cowboys and 49ers had high-scoring offensive performances in the Wild Card round.  Dallas defeated Tampa 31-14, while San Francisco bested Seattle, 41-23.  Since 1980, NFL Playoff games have gone OVER the total 63% if each team scored more than 30 points its previous game, and the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  And, finally, the 49ers have gone OVER 10-1-1 when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -6 points, including 7-0 OVER at home.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals to go OVER the total.  When these two teams met in Cincinnati 20 days ago, the O/U line was 50.5.  And when the game was stopped in the first quarter, the in-game O/U line was 56.5.  Now, for this playoff game, the O/U line has been installed at a number less than the regular season meeting.  By my math, the value rests with the Over in this game.  Additionally, Bills have scored 32, 35, 35 and 34 points in their last four games, all of which went Over the total.  And the Bills have gone OVER in 11 of 14 home playoff games since 1980.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the New York Giants.  This is the Giants' 3rd straight road game, while Philly will be playing at home for its 3rd straight game.  Since 1980, whether in the regular season or playoffs, NFL teams (like New York) playing their 3rd straight road game have covered just 32% vs. foes who were playing their 3rd straight home game.  (In the playoffs, the record of our road teams is 4-13-2 ATS, including 0-5 ATS vs. .700 (or better) foes).  Last week, the Giants took advantage of a defensively-challenged Vikings team.  Minnesota made the playoffs even though it had a negative scoring margin (minus 0.17), and was giving up 25.11 ppg.  Indeed, the Vikings were just the 12th team since 1980 to earn a playoff berth with a defense that gave up more than 25 ppg.  So, kudos to New York for pulling the upset.  But also take that win with a boulder of salt.  This will be a much more difficult match-up for the Giants, as Philly's scoring margin rates 7.76 ppg better than New York's.  And, had QB Jalen Hurts played in the Eagles' two losses to Dallas + New Orleans, then that 7.76 number would be likely larger.  Since October 30, the Giants have gone 4-6-1 straight-up.  And in their last 11 games, they did not earn a single win against a team with a positive season scoring margin.  Their 4 wins were against the Houston Texans (minus 7.7 scoring margin), Washington Commanders (minus 1.29 scoring margin), Indianapolis Colts (minus 8.11 scoring margin), and the Vikings (minus 0.17 scoring margin).  New York lost both games this season to Philadelphia by an average of 16 ppg, and I don't believe it will be up to the task on Saturday night.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Jaguars improbably roared back from a 27-0 deficit to stun the Los Angeles Chargers, 31-30.  That was the 3rd biggest comeback in the post-season (following Buffalo's comeback from a 32-point deficit on the Houston Oilers (Tennessee Titans) in the 1993 playoffs, and the Indianapolis Colts' comeback from a 28-point deficit on the Kansas City Chiefs.  And it was one of 26 comeback wins in NFL history by teams trailing by at least 24 points in the game.  However, when one looks at how those teams do the following week, they don't do very well.  Indeed, since 1980, they've covered the spread the following week just 30.7% of the time.  But that's not the worst part.  If a team came back from a 24-point (or worse) deficit, and was on the road in their next game, they've covered just 14%. And if they were playing a .615 (or better) opponent in their next game, then they've covered just 1 of 9.  And if they were an underdog of +4 (or more) points in their next game -- whether home or away -- then they've gone 0-6 ATS.  None of this bodes well for a Jaguars team playing a well-rested, Andy Reid-coached team.  In Reid's career, his teams have gone 29-6 SU and 22-13 ATS when playing with a week of rest, including 9-1 straight-up with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, and 13-0 straight-up when priced from -3.5 to -9.5 points.  It's true that the Jaguars are playing with revenge from a 10-point loss suffered here earlier this season.  But Reid's teams have gone 83-65-3 ATS against revenge-minded foes, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. foes off an upset home win.  Finally, the over/under line for this game is north of 50 points.  Unfortunately for Jacksonville, it's 0-16 straight-up and 2-14 ATS in games with an over/under line of 49+ points.  And it's 0-7 SU/ATS as an underdog of +13 or less points when matched up against an offense that scores > 27.75 ppg.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs and Dallas Cowboys to go OVER the total.  These playoff games have all gone over the total thus far, and we'll look for the Bucs and Cowboys to make it a perfect 6-0 SWEEP for the Overs in the Wild Card round.  The Cowboys have played five of their last six (and seven of their last nine) OVER the total, while the Bucs have gone OVER in four of their last five.  And the OVER also falls into a 77-45 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game.  We played on the Over last week in the Bengals/Ravens game, and got the $$$ with Cincy's 27-16 win.  And we'll come right back with the Over in this Playoff game rematch.  Indeed, there have been 15 playoff games since 1980 where the teams also met in the final regular season game, and 12 of those 15 playoff games went Over the total.  Even better, the Bengals have gone Over the total 9 straight division games when the O/U line was between 38 and 44 points.  Take the Ravens/Bengals Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings Under the total.  The New York Giants went under the total in 10 of their 17 games this season, and have gone under 106-79-1 their last 186 games.  Even better:  when priced as an underdog of less than 4 points (or PK), New York has gone under 32-13-1, including 10-0 under its last 10.  And, finally, the Giants have also gone under in nine of their last 12 playoff games.  Likewise, Minnesota has gone under the total in nine of their last 12 playoff games.  This will be a low-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars Over the total.  The Jaguars come into this game off 3 straight Unders, and they also won each of those games SU.  But off that string of low-scoring victories, we'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Saturday, as NFL teams off 3 straight wins, and 3 straight unders have proceeded to go OVER the total 69.2% since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Chargers flew over the total in their previous game by 20 points, as they lost 31-28 to Denver, when the O/U line was just 39.  That also bodes well for the Over, as teams off high-scoring games that went over the total by 20+ points have also gone Over in their next game in the Playoffs 59% of the time.  The meeting between these teams earlier this season went over the total by 2.5 points, and 11 of the 13 meetings in this series have gone Over.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Saturday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs are the defending champs, and are a deserved favorite.  But they've been an average team against the point spread this year.  They're 7-7 ATS, and have gone 4-4 ATS away from home, with an average point spread differential of 1.75.  In contrast, TCU is 10-2-2 ATS, and has gone 5-0-2 ATS away from home, with an average point spread differential of 7.00.  Additionally, Big 12 Conference teams have gone 14-5 ATS in the Bowls when installed as an underdog of more than 9 points.  We'll take the points with the Horned Frogs.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings were blown out last week, and they’re now a road favorite against Nathan Peterman and the Bears.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, it’s 0-12 ATS as a division road favorite of -3 (or more) points if Minnesota lost its previous game.  And it’s 0-2 ATS this year, and 2-9 ATS its last 11 when favored by more than 5 points.  Meanwhile, the Bears are 21-5 ATS as a home dog if they were off back to back losses, and failed to cover the spread by more than 3 points in their previous game.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New York Jets/Miami Dolphins game.  These two teams met in Week 5, and the Jets bombed Miami, 40-17, and went over the total of 46 by 11 points.  The Dolphins will have the same quarterback (Skylar Thompson) they did for that game, while the Jets will be led by Joe Flacco (who started New York's first three games this season) rather than Zach Wilson.  Thompson actually was not the starter in that game, but he took over for an injured-Teddy Bridgewater on Miami's 2nd offensive play.  Thompson was 19 of 33 for 166 yards and an interception in that game.  With Flacco under center, New York's first three games this season averaged 44.3 ppg, and I expect New York's offense to move the ball against a Dolphins' defense which has allowed 33, 23, 32, 26 and 23 points in its last five games.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens Over the total.  This is the lowest Over/Under the Bengals have had since last year's final regular season game, when they matched up against the Cleveland Browns.  For my money, the number is too low.  Yes, Baltimore's offense is greatly hampered by the absence of Lamar Jackson.  But there's two sides to every coin, and Cincy's offense is humming right now.  Even last week against a good Buffalo defense, Cincinnati scored a touchdown on its first possession, and was on its way to a touchdown or field goal on its second possession when the game was halted.  The in-game Over/Under line was at 56.5 at the time the game was stopped.  The Bengals have scored an average of 29.28 ppg over their previous seven games, and I believe they'll find the end zone often this afternoon.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  This will likely be the first of back-to-back meetings between these AFC North rivals, as Cincinnati will probably be seeded #3, while the Ravens will probably earn the #6 seed in the conference seedings.  Anything could happen, of course, but that's the most likely scenario.  If they meet next week, there would also possibly be a major change in the Ravens' on-field personnel, as QB Lamar Jackson would make his return from injury.  For this game, Baltimore will once again start Tyler Huntley.  That gives the decided edge in this game to Cincinnati, which is playing the best of any team in the league.  Last Monday, in the cancelled game vs. Buffalo, the Bengals had scored a touchdown on their first possession, and looked to be on their way to scoring at least a field goal, if not a touchdown, on their second possession.  When the Bengals/Bills game was halted, the in-game line was Cincinnati -3.5, with an over/under of 56.5.  I believe the Bengals would have gone on to win that game.  This Bengals team is just not one I want to step in front of right now.  They’ve covered 12 of their last 13, with their only loss coming on Monday Night Football in a horrible situation against the Browns, who were looking to snap a 4-game losing streak.  The Bengals are an incredible 9-0 ATS their last 9 (and 20-4 ATS their last 24) when playing a winning opponent, if the Bengals were not getting more than 5 points.  Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, in the Cotton Bowl, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave and USC Trojans to go Under the total.  The Trojans had a meltdown in the 2nd half of the Pac-12 Championship game, as they allowed 30 points en route to a 47-24 loss.  Utah bullied the Trojans on the ground with 223 yards on 35 rushes, and Utes QB Cam Rising threw for 310 yards on 22-34 passing.  That was the Trojans' worst defensive performance of the season -- in terms of points surrendered -- and I expect that they will tighten things up today on that side of the ball.  Pac-12 teams have gone 19-8 Under their last 27 Bowl games, while American Athletic Conference teams have gone Under in 16 of their last 19 Bowl games.  Take the Cotton Bowl Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers OVER the total.  The Ravens come into this game off 4 straight unders, including a 17-9 win over the Atlanta Falcons last Saturday.  Lamar Jackson will once again be sidelined, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for yet another low-scoring game tonight.  And especially because the Steelers + Ravens went Under earlier this season in Baltimore's 16-14 win.  But the Steelers have gone Over the total 60% of their rematches the past 23 seasons if the previous meeting went Under the total.  And the Over also falls into Totals system of mine which is 102-55 since 1980.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Packers and Vikings met in Week #1.  Early in that game, rookie WR Christian Watson dropped a sure TD pass as he sprinted wide open down the right sideline.  That miscue was the key play in that game, and the Packers could never get their offense on track in the 23-7 loss.  Fast forward to mid-November, and Watson had still never hauled in a TD pass.  But he had his coming-out party in Green Bay's 31-28 overtime win vs. Dallas, as he caught 3 TD passes of 58, 39 and 7 yards.  The Packers snapped their five-game losing streak that afternoon, and have won three of their five games since to pull into the Playoff picture.  Should the Packers win today and next week, and the Commanders lose once more, the Packers would qualify for the playoffs.  So, today's game is huge for Aaron Rodgers & Co.  And the Packers are an awesome 72-42-4 ATS at home with Rodgers under center, including 29-10-2 ATS in the regular season vs. an opponent off a SU win.  Lay the points with Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indianapolis/NY Giants game.  Last week, I had my Monday Night Football Total of the Year on the UNDER in the Colts/Chargers game, and was rewarded with a 20-3 Chargers victory.  The Colts managed just 69 rushing yards and 104 passing yards for the entire game.  I don’t see much more scoring here, as the Giants generally play Unders.  New York is 36-16 Under at home, including 18-5 Under when the line was less then 44 points.  And it's also 12-0 Under at home off a straight up loss.  Meanwhile, the Colts have gone 8-3 Under their last 11 on the road, and 31-18 Under off a loss.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Georgia.  The Buckeyes were a whopping 9-point home favorite, but were blown out in the 2nd half of their season-ending game vs. rival Michigan.  Ohio State actually held the lead, 20-17, at the break.  But it couldn't find the end zone after intermission, and lost, 45-23.  The Buckeyes, though, have excelled as an underdog in Bowl games, including 9-1 ATS when getting 4 or more points!  Even better:  Bowl underdogs, priced from +3.5 to +8 points, off an upset loss as a 9-point (or greater) favorite, have gone 10-0 ATS.  This will be a difficult match-up for the Bulldogs, who are 2nd in scoring defense (12.77 ppg), but whose pass defense ranks 51st, surrendering 215.1 passing yards per game.  Ohio State will be able to exploit Georgia's secondary, as OSU boasts the nation's top QB in passer efficiency rating (CJ Stroud), and a brilliant route-runner (Marvin Harrison, Jr) at WR.  Stroud threw for 3,340 yards, 37 TDs (and just six INTs), while Harrison had 72 receptions for 1,157 yards (16.1 avg yds), and 12 TDs.  Ohio State's covered 15 of 18 away from home off a home loss, including 9-0 ATS vs. .666 (or better) foes.  And, finally, defending National Champs are a wallet-busting 22-44 ATS away from home off a win, if priced from -4.5 to -14 points.  Take the Buckeyes + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, in the Music City Bowl, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Kentucky.  The Over/Under line (currently 31) is the lowest OU Line for any FBS game in the past 10 seasons.  And the Hawkeyes have excelled in games with low OU lines, as they're 7-1 ATS their last eight when the line has been less than 42 points.  Iowa's also 7-0-1 ATS their last eight in 'win situation' games where the line was less than 3 points.  The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread by an average of 4.70 ppg away from home this season, while Kentucky's point spread differential away from home has been -0.75.  That bodes well for the Hawkeyes.  As does the fact that they're 13-7-1 ATS their last 21 bowl games.  Take Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the OVER in the Iowa/Kentucky game.  This is the lowest OU line over the past 10 years in a game matching two FBS schools -- in part, due to the fact that each team will be playing without their starting quarterbacks.  Iowa will turn to 3rd string QB, Joe Labas, while Kentucky will have Destin Wade under center.  Still, by my math, the line is too low, and confers value on the OVER.  For technical support, consider that 63% of Big 10/SEC Conference matchups have gone OVER the total the past 10 seasons when the line was less than 60 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio Bobcats minus the points over Wyoming.  These two teams will meet in the Arizona Bowl, in Tucson, this afternoon.  We'll go against a Cowboys team which laid an egg (literally, a 'Goose Egg'), as it was shut out, 30-0, by Fresno in its final regular season game.  Wyoming is a horrid 8-27 ATS away from home off a SU/ATS loss, if it wasn't getting 5+ points.  And the Cowboys are 3-18 ATS away from home after scoring 14 points or less, if they weren't getting 4+ points in their current game.  Lay the points with Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over South Carolina.  The Gamecocks come into this game off back to back upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson.  But I expect Notre Dame to halt their win streak, as the Irish are a perfect 13-0-1 ATS, if they owned a winning record, and were installed as a favorite of less than 14 points vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  We played against the Irish last Bowl season, in Marcus Freeman's debut as Notre Dame head coach, and got the $$$ with Oklahoma State as our 5* NCAA Football Game of the Year.  The Irish blew a big, 21-point lead in that Bowl game.  Rest assured that Freeman won't let that happen here.  Notre Dame is a spotless 5-0 SU/ATS in Bowl games when priced from -2 to -6 points (but 6-18 ATS when it wasn't).  And South Carolina is a wallet-busting 9-27-2 ATS off back to back ATS wins, when the point spread was 13 points or less (or PK).  Take Notre Dame minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Notre Dame/South Carolina game.  This Gator Bowl game will be played in Jacksonville, FL this afternoon.  Seven of the last nine Gator Bowls have gone Under, and we'll look for another relatively-low scoring game today.  Admittedly, it's true that South Carolina's offense has posted back-to-back high-scoring games, in wins over Tennesse (63-38) and Clemson (31-30).  And both of those games went Over the total.  But post-season games have gone Under 61.4% the past 10 seasons if a team has scored, in the aggregate, 85+ points over its two previous games.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Pittsburgh/UCLA game.  Over the last 8 seasons, Pac-12 teams have gone Under the total 69% in Bowl games when the O/U Line was 50+ points, including 4-0 Under already this Bowl season.  And when a Pac-12 team has been favored in a Bowl game, regardless of the OU Line, the bowl game has gone Under 70% of the time, including 6-0 Under the last six.  The Sun Bowl game, in El Paso, has had a long Bowl history.  There has often been issues with weather at this time of year in El Paso, and today will be no different.  Rain is in the forecast early in the morning, but should recede by game time.  However, winds will be around 15 miles per hour, with gusts upwards of 20 miles per hour (wind has the most impact on the passing game).  Five of the last six Sun Bowl games have gone Under the total, and that's the way we'll look for this Pitt/UCLA game.  Take the Under.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Over in the Maryland/NC State game.  Both of these teams ended the season with high-scoring wins.  Maryland tallied 37 in its win against Rutgers, while NC State scored 30 in its upset victory at North Carolina.  We'll look for both offense to continue to play well on this Friday, as post-season games have gone Over the total 88% the past 10 years if both teams scored 30+ points in their previous game, and the O/U line was 47 or less points.  Take the Over.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Texas/Washington game.  The Longhorns come into this game off back to back OVERS, as they defeated Kansas, 55-14, and then bested Baylor, 38-27.  Texas has gone UNDER in 8 straight games (and 31 of 46) following back to back games where 49+ points were scored.  And the UNDER also falls into a system of mine which has won 72.9%.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners + the points over Florida St.  Over the last 42 years, Bowl underdogs of +8.5 (or more) points have gone 84-50-2 ATS if they weren't off back to back wins.  Take the Sooners + the points.

>At 2 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Minnesota/Syracuse game.  Both of these teams played Overs to end the regular season, and that's the way we'll look in this Pinstripe Bowl game.  The Over falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 67.7% since 2013.  And Syracuse has gone OVER the total 83% the past 10 seasons when the line has been less than 50 points.  Take the OVER.

At 9 pm, on Wednesday, in the Texas Bowl, our selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders ended their season by scoring the most points they had all season vs. an FBS school, when they upset Oklahoma, 51-48, as a 2.5-point home dog.  Unfortunately for Texas Tech, it's 1-7-1 ATS after scoring 37+ points in its previous game.  And it's 12-25 ATS after an upset win, including 2-11 ATS when priced from +2 to +10 points.  Finally, the Red Raiders are 1-9-1 ATS in the Bowls when priced from +7 to -3.5 points, while the Rebels are 11-3-1 ATS their last 15 Bowl games.  Take Ole Miss minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, on Wednesday, in the Liberty Bowl, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Arkansas.  The Jayhawks greatly overachieved this season.  Picked by the media to finish last in the Big 12 conference, Kansas went 5-0 SU/ATS out of the gate, and was competitive in defeat vs. teams like TCU and Oklahoma.  Kansas did stumble badly its last two games, as it lost to Texas (55-14) and Kansas St (47-27), but still finished 6-6 to earn a bowl bid.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS their last six post-season games, while Arkansas is 8-18-1 ATS its last 27 post-season games.  That bodes well for the Jayhawks as an underdog in this game.  As does the fact that the Underdog has gone 13-5 ATS in the Liberty Bowl games since 2004.  Finally, underdogs that were outscored, in the aggregate, by more than 40 points in their two previous games, have covered 62% in the post-season.  Take Kansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, in the Liberty Bowl, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks and Arkansas Razorbacks UNDER the total.  This Bowl game will match-up the Razorbacks from the SEC vs. the Jayhawks from the Big 12.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game, as Bowl games involving SEC teams are currently riding a 17-5-1 UNDER run, including 9-0 UNDER if our SEC team was priced between +3 to -7 points.  Likewise, Bowl games involving Big 12 teams have gone 21-5 UNDER, if our Big 12 team was installed as an underdog (or PK), including 14-1 UNDER their last 15.  Four of the last five Liberty Bowl games have gone Under the total.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, on Wednesday, in the Military Bowl, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights + the points over Duke.  The Knights owned the nation's 7th most prolific rushing attack, as they averaged 235.6 yards on the ground this season.  And they've been installed as an underdog vs. Duke in this Bowl game.  We'll take the underdog, as we note that Bowl underdogs of +3 (or more) points, that averaged 235+ yards rushing on the season, have gone 77-56-1 ATS over the last 43 seasons.  Take UCF.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Under in the Colts/Chargers game.  The Colts were stunned last week by Minnesota, which roared back from a 33-0 deficit to down the Colts, 39-36.  We'll look for a much lower scoring game on Monday, as Indy has gone Under the total 47-27 at home off a loss in which it gave up 30+ points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, on Monday, in the Quick Lane Bowl, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Bowling Green.  After going 2-10 last year under coach Doug Martin, the Aggies turned to veteran head coach Jerry Kill to lead the team in 2022.  Kill previously manned the sideline at Northern Illinois (2008-2010) and Minnesota (2011-2015), and as an interim head coach last season at TCU.  Not including TCU, where he coached just 4 games, and went 2-2 ATS, Kill's teams have always been profitable.  Overall, he's gone 63-48-2 ATS, including 44-25 ATS when priced from -6 to +17 points.  His Aggies ended this season in impressive fashion, with a 65-3 blowout of Valparaiso, and a 49-14 upset win (as a 24-point underdog) at Liberty in their penultimate game.  They also were 5-1 ATS down the stretch.  In contrast, Bowling Green was 4-7-1 ATS this season, and 1-3 ATS in their final four games.  They scored just 14 points in their final game of the season -- a 24 point loss at Ohio, as a 5.5-point underdog.  The Mid-American Conference is, generally speaking, a horrible football conference.  And it's teams have gone 12-25-1 ATS as a favorite in the Bowls, if they were off a straight-up loss in their previous game.  Take the Aggies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Over in the Denver/Los Angeles Rams game. The Broncos opened the season with 11 unders in their first 12 games. And after that start to the season, the oddsmakers continually adjusted the Over/Under lines to get us to the point today where we are at. By my math, the value in Denver's Over/Unders has been on the Over the last two games, and not surprisingly, both went Over the total.  I think there's also value on the Over in this game, as the line is still just too low.  Indeed,it's been 11 seasons since the Rams have seen an Over/Under line this low. And it's tied for the lowest Over/Under line in a Broncos game over the past 11 seasons. Take the Rams & Broncos to go Over the total. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St Blue Raiders + the points over San Diego St.  The Blue Raiders ended the season on a 3-game win streak (2-1 ATS) to finish 7-5 on the season.  The Aztecs also were 7-5, but ended the season with a whimper, as they lost, 13-3, to Air Force.  They're laying a sizable amount of points today to Middle Tennessee, but I can't get behind an SDSU team which was 2-4 ATS as a favorite.  Even worse:  Mountain West Conference favorites of more than 3 points have gone 6-19 ATS in bowl games vs. foes not off a SU/ATS loss.  And Mountain West teams are 4-9 ATS their last 13 vs. Conference USA foes in Bowl games.  With San Diego State entering with a 1-6 ATS mark in the post-season when favored by more than 3 points, we'll take the Underdog Blue Raiders tonight.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Philadelphia.  We played against the Eagles last week, and cashed our NFC Underdog of the Month on the Chicago Bears.  This will be Philly's 3rd straight road game, and underdogs playing their 3rd straight road game, off back to back wins, have gone 24-37-1 ATS since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys lost, 40-34, at Jacksonville.  But the Cowboys are 25–12-1 ATS off an upset road loss, if they were playing an opponent off a SU win, including 7-0 ATS if they allowed 34+ points in that upset loss.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders and San Francisco 49ers Over the total.  Since trading for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense has scored 23, 31, 22, 38, 13, 33, 35 and 21 points, for an average of 27 points per game.  Before getting McCaffrey, the Niners' offense averaged 20.33 ppg.    Not surprisingly, five of San Francisco's first six games went under the total, but since the trade, it has gone OVER the total in five of eight games.  I look for another high-scoring game on Saturday.  Take Washington & San Francisco Over the total

At 1 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Tennessee.  The Titans are 7-7, but mired in a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak.  They now will be hosting a Texans team which is 1-12-1, but still playing hard, as evidenced by their last two losses to the KC Chiefs (30-24, overtime) and Dallas Cowboys (27-23).  I don't want any part of a Titans team without its #1 signal caller, Ryan Tannehill, who underwent ankle surgery, and will be unlikely to play the remainder of this season.  Tennessee will be quarterbacked this afternoon by rookie Mailk Willis.  Houston will be familiar with Willis, as he led Tennessee to a 17-10 win at Houston earlier this season (his first-ever NFL start), as a 1.5-point road favorite.  But non-winning NFL teams off a loss have covered just 34% at home vs revenge-minded foes, if they were favored by less than 7 points (or PK).  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Baltimore/Atlanta game.  The Ravens come into this game off 3 low-scoring contests vs. Denver (10-9), Pittsburgh (16-14) and Cleveland (13-3).  And each went under the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game, here.  But NFL games have gone OVER the total 58% over the past 43 seasons if a team didn't score 17+ points in any of its three previous games, and those 3 games went Under the total, and totaled, in the aggregate, 80 or less points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Detroit.  This is Carolina's final home game of the season, and they're off a loss to Pittsburgh where they failed to cover the spread by 11 points.  Meanwhile, Detroit’s off three straight wins, and has won 6 of 7.  We’ll take Carolina, as home teams have covered 59% of their final home games of the season if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Take the Panthers.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Houston/Louisiana Lafayette game.  This Independence Bowl match-up will pit 9-3 Houston (from the American Athletic Conference) vs. 6-6 Louisiana (from the Sun Belt).  When the Cougars have been installed as a double-digit favorite, their games have generally been high-scoring, and have gone 11-3-1 ATS Over the total, including 4-0-1 Over their last 5.  BUT when Houston's been installed as a favorite of LESS than 10 points, they've gone Under 30-11 their last 41.  Here, of course, Houston is a single-digit favorite, which bodes well for the Under.  As does the fact that Louisiana is 28-16-1 Under its last 45, including 9-2 Under as an underdog of less than 13 points.  Finally, American Athletic Conference teams have played 7 straight Unders in Bowl games since 2021; are 8-0 Under their last 8 as a favorite in the Bowls; and have gone 13-2 Under their last 15 Bowl games, overall.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Air Force.  The Falcons were 9-3 on the season, while Baylor was 6-6.  But the Bears played a rugged Big 12 schedule (as well as a road game at BYU), while Air Force played a comparatively-easy Mountain West schedule.  The Falcons played 4 teams that earned a bowl bid this season:  Wyoming, San Diego St, Boise St. and Utah St.  And Air Force went 1-3 in those games, with its lone win coming against San Diego St.  This is a big step-up in class for Air Force, and I don't think they'll get the job done tonight.  And especially not with Baylor coming into this game off a SU/ATS loss to Texas.  Key stat:  Baylor's 13-0-1 off an ATS loss when matched up against a foe with a W/L percentage greater than .600.  Take the Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames plus the points over Toledo.  The Flames have been installed as an underdog for this Boca Raton Bowl.  And Liberty is a solid 14-4 ATS its last 18 when not favored by more than 3 points.  Toledo, on the other hand, is 18-32-1 ATS in Non-Conference games when playing away from home.  Take Liberty.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose St Spartans minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles won their last 3 games, including a 38-19 win vs. Central Michigan to end its season.  Unfortunately, Eastern Michigan is a wallet-breaking 30-50 ATS off a win, including 5-18 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points with San Jose St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies + the points over Marshall.  It's never been a bad idea to take double-digit underdogs in Bowl games.  And that's because they've gone 85-64-3 ATS since 1980.  So, while I will go with a double-digit Bowl favorite on occasion, it's not something I will do with regularity.  Moreover, Connecticut was blown out, 34-17, by Army in its season-ending game.  And double-digit Bowl dogs have cashed 63% if they didn't win their previous game (compared to 54% if they were off a win).  Meanwhile, Marshall is 17-26 ATS away from home as a favorite of -7+ points, while UConn is 11-5 ATS as an underdog.  Finally, Sun Belt Conference favorites (or PK) are a dismal 41-75-3 ATS in non-conference games, if our Sun Belt team didn't own a losing record.  Take UConn + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, our selection is on the OVER in the Connecticut/Marshall game.  Both of these teams had mid-season stretches where they played a streak of Unders.  UConn went under the total 5 straight games starting on October 1, while Marshall went under in 6 straight games starting on September 24.  But both teams ended the season with high-scoring games that went over the total.  Marshall's season-ending game vs. Georgia St went over the total of 45.5 by 5.5 points, as the Herd lost, 28-23, to the Panthers.  Likewise, Connecticut's season-ending game vs. Army went over the 45-point total by 6 points, as Connecticut lost, 34-17.  And its next-to-last regular season game went over the total of 45 by 24 points, as it upset Liberty, 36-33.  In its last 10 seasons, Marshall has NEVER had a Total this low.  But it's gone Over the total 65% since 2013 when the Over/Under line was less than 48 points.  We'll look for a relatively high scoring game this afternoon.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Washington/New York Giants game.  The Giants' last four games have averaged 51.75 ppg, and three of the four have gone 'over' the total.  We'll look for another relatively-high scoring game on Sunday night, as the Over falls into a 98-53 Totals system of mine.  Take the Over.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Washington.  Last week, the Giants were mauled at home by the Philadelphia Eagles, 48-22.  New York now sits with a 7-5-1 record, and would earn the 7th (and final) NFC playoff berth, based on the current standings.  We'll grab the points with New York, as it's 14-4 ATS off a home loss by 20+ points.   And it's also 27-11 ATS as an underdog of +2.5 (or more) points vs. division rivals, if New York owned a winning record.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/Cincinnati game.  We played on the Buccaneers to go Over the total last week, in their game against San Francisco, and were rewarded with a 35-7 49ers blowout.  We'll look for this game to go Over the total, as well, as Tom Brady's teams have gone OVER 11 of 14 games after scoring less than 10 points, including 6-0 OVER if they lost that previous game by 17+ points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  Last week, Tom Brady & Co. played about as bad a game as they could have, and were destroyed by San Francisco, 35-7.  But off that 28-point blowout loss, we'll take the Bucs to bounce back on this afternoon.  Indeed, over the last 43 years, home dogs of more than 3 points that scored 7 or less, and allowed 35 or more in their previous game, have covered 62%.  We saw this situation earlier this season when Pittsburgh was blown out, 38-3, by Buffalo.  They played these Bucs in their next game, and we had a huge play on the Steelers as a 9.5-point underdog.  They won outright, 20-18.  Coincidentally, that game marked the start of Tampa's decline this season.  The Bucs were 3-2 entering that contest, but have gone 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS from that point.  Of course, the oddsmakers have significantly adjusted the numbers for Tampa, such that it's now installed as a home dog vs. Cincy.  I won't pass up this opportunity to play on Tampa, as Tom Brady's teams are 16-0 ATS their last 16 (and 25-2 ATS their last 27) off a straight-up loss, if they weren't favored by more than 1 point!  Take the Buccaneers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New England.  The Raiders were upset by the Rams last Thursday night, as a road favorite, while New England won and covered as a road favorite at Arizona.  We'll take the Raiders, as teams off an upset loss as a road favorite have gone 54-33 ATS vs. foes off an SU/ATS win as a road favorite.

At 1:00 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Philadelphia.  The Bears come into this game on a 6-game losing streak.  And they've also failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.  We'll take Chicago as a big home dog, as it's cashed 83% over the last 43 seasons as a home underdog of +6 (or more) points, if it didn't cover the spread in its two previous games.  Even better:  the Bears had their Bye week last weekend.  And NFL teams off their Bye week have cashed 67.7% as a home dog of more than 5 points.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Boise St.  The Mean Green won't have to travel far from their Denton campus to this Frisco Bowl game, so they'll have most of today's crowd rooting for them.  We'll fade Boise St, as the Broncos have burned money in the post-season when favored by less than 12 points, as they're 1-8 ATS their last nine!  And double-digit Conference USA underdogs have gone 14-7 ATS in Bowl games.  Take North Texas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins to go OVER the total.  Yes, it's the month of December, and wintry weather conditions are afoot.  But the forecast for Saturday night isn't horribly bad.  There's a little bit of snowfall in the forecast, with winds in the 10 mph to 15 mph range, and a temperature of 22 degrees.  I like the Over in this game, as this is a relatively-low total for a Bills game.  Indeed, in the past three seasons only eight Buffalo games have had a lower number than what we currently see for this game.  And the Bills went OVER the total in six of those eight games.  Similarly, the Dolphins have played 30 games over the past two seasons.  Only 7 of those 30 had a lower number than this game, and Miami went Over the total in four of those seven.  Earlier this season, the number posted for the Bills game in Miami was 54; last year, the two games had lines of 48.5 and 48.  By my math, the value clearly is on the side of the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:45 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls + the points over Southern Miss.  These two teams know each other well, as they battled virtually every year as members of Conference USA.  But Southern Miss left this year for the Sun Belt Conference, so this meeting will be the first time they met in a Bowl game.  Rice won each of the past two seasons (both SU and ATS), and is 8-4 ATS vs. Southern Miss in this series.  It's true that the Owls ended their season with 3 straight losses.  But College football underdogs of 6+ points have covered 68% in post-season games since 1980 off 3+ losses.  Take Rice + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington St Cougars + the points over Fresno St.  The Bulldogs are a horrid 4-15 ATS away from home, when favored against a non-conference foe, including 1-7 ATS in Bowl games.  Take Washington St.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Oregon State.  The Gators are 18-7 ATS as underdogs of +5 (or more) points away from home, when matched up against a foe off a point spread win.  And Oregon State is 2-14 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes off a loss, including 0-8 ATS when favored by 7+ points.  Grab the points with the Gators.

At 1 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Minnesota.  I continue to believe the Vikings are overrated.  Last week, I played on the Lions -2.5 over Minnesota as my NFC North Division Game of the Year, and the Lions shellacked the Vikings, 34-23.  This week, Minny returns home to face the well-rested Colts, who are off their Bye week.  Two weeks ago, the Colts were blown out by the Cowboys, 54-19.  But that was a highly misleading final, as the score was 21-19 with 14 minutes left in the game, before Dallas exploded for 33 points in the fourth quarter.  We'll take Jeff Saturday's men to bounce back, as Indianapolis is a wallet-fattening 32-8 ATS off a straight-up loss, if it failed to cover the spread by 8 or more points in that defeat.  Additionally, NFL teams that gave up more than 52 points in their previous game have rebounded to go 10-0 ATS their last 10 (and 21-3 ATS their last 24), provided they weren't playing a revenge-minded opponent which they beat in the same, or prior season.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 11 am, our selection is on the Over in the Louisville/Cincinnati game.  This Fenway Bowl game matches Louisville from the ACC against Cincinnati from the American Athletic Conference.  In games between schools from the ACC and AAC, the OVER has cashed 69% when the Over/Under line was 51 points or less. The Over/Under line in this game actually opened at 45, but has been significantly lowered from that opener.  By my math, the current number confers great value on the Over, and I'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on this Saturday.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over San Francisco.  The Seahawks received welcome news this week when RB Kenneth Walker III returned to practice.  And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Seattle, as it has been hampered without its top 2 running backs (Walker, Rashaad Penny) on the field.  The 49ers, of course, have their own injury problems.  WR Deebo Samuel went down last week, and will miss tonight's game.  QB Brock Purdy is questionable (though I assume he will play).  Last week, the Seahawks lost here, at home, to Carolina, as a 3.5-point favorite.  We'll take Seattle to bounce back, as winning teams are 62% ATS at home since 1980 off an upset loss, if their opponent won its previous game by more than 14 points.  With SF in off a 28-point blowout win over Tampa, grab the points with Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/San Francisco 49ers game.  Prior to acquiring star running back, Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense averaged just 20.3 ppg, their games averaged 35.1 ppg, and five of the six went Under the total.  Now, since the trade, their offense is averaging 26.6 ppg, while their games have averaged 43.5 ppg, and four of the six have gone Over the total.  So, while it's true that Tampa's last four games have been low-scoring, and have gone Under the total, Tom Brady's teams have gone Over the total 29-16 off back-to-back Unders, and 12-4 following 3+ Unders.  Take the Bucs and 49ers Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.