>At 2 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Minnesota/Syracuse game.  Both of these teams played Overs to end the regular season, and that's the way we'll look in this Pinstripe Bowl game.  The Over falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 67.7% since 2013.  And Syracuse has gone OVER the total 83% the past 10 seasons when the line has been less than 50 points.  Take the OVER.

At 9 pm, on Wednesday, in the Texas Bowl, our selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders ended their season by scoring the most points they had all season vs. an FBS school, when they upset Oklahoma, 51-48, as a 2.5-point home dog.  Unfortunately for Texas Tech, it's 1-7-1 ATS after scoring 37+ points in its previous game.  And it's 12-25 ATS after an upset win, including 2-11 ATS when priced from +2 to +10 points.  Finally, the Red Raiders are 1-9-1 ATS in the Bowls when priced from +7 to -3.5 points, while the Rebels are 11-3-1 ATS their last 15 Bowl games.  Take Ole Miss minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, on Wednesday, in the Liberty Bowl, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Arkansas.  The Jayhawks greatly overachieved this season.  Picked by the media to finish last in the Big 12 conference, Kansas went 5-0 SU/ATS out of the gate, and was competitive in defeat vs. teams like TCU and Oklahoma.  Kansas did stumble badly its last two games, as it lost to Texas (55-14) and Kansas St (47-27), but still finished 6-6 to earn a bowl bid.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS their last six post-season games, while Arkansas is 8-18-1 ATS its last 27 post-season games.  That bodes well for the Jayhawks as an underdog in this game.  As does the fact that the Underdog has gone 13-5 ATS in the Liberty Bowl games since 2004.  Finally, underdogs that were outscored, in the aggregate, by more than 40 points in their two previous games, have covered 62% in the post-season.  Take Kansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, in the Liberty Bowl, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks and Arkansas Razorbacks UNDER the total.  This Bowl game will match-up the Razorbacks from the SEC vs. the Jayhawks from the Big 12.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game, as Bowl games involving SEC teams are currently riding a 17-5-1 UNDER run, including 9-0 UNDER if our SEC team was priced between +3 to -7 points.  Likewise, Bowl games involving Big 12 teams have gone 21-5 UNDER, if our Big 12 team was installed as an underdog (or PK), including 14-1 UNDER their last 15.  Four of the last five Liberty Bowl games have gone Under the total.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, on Wednesday, in the Military Bowl, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights + the points over Duke.  The Knights owned the nation's 7th most prolific rushing attack, as they averaged 235.6 yards on the ground this season.  And they've been installed as an underdog vs. Duke in this Bowl game.  We'll take the underdog, as we note that Bowl underdogs of +3 (or more) points, that averaged 235+ yards rushing on the season, have gone 77-56-1 ATS over the last 43 seasons.  Take UCF.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Under in the Colts/Chargers game.  The Colts were stunned last week by Minnesota, which roared back from a 33-0 deficit to down the Colts, 39-36.  We'll look for a much lower scoring game on Monday, as Indy has gone Under the total 47-27 at home off a loss in which it gave up 30+ points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, on Monday, in the Quick Lane Bowl, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Bowling Green.  After going 2-10 last year under coach Doug Martin, the Aggies turned to veteran head coach Jerry Kill to lead the team in 2022.  Kill previously manned the sideline at Northern Illinois (2008-2010) and Minnesota (2011-2015), and as an interim head coach last season at TCU.  Not including TCU, where he coached just 4 games, and went 2-2 ATS, Kill's teams have always been profitable.  Overall, he's gone 63-48-2 ATS, including 44-25 ATS when priced from -6 to +17 points.  His Aggies ended this season in impressive fashion, with a 65-3 blowout of Valparaiso, and a 49-14 upset win (as a 24-point underdog) at Liberty in their penultimate game.  They also were 5-1 ATS down the stretch.  In contrast, Bowling Green was 4-7-1 ATS this season, and 1-3 ATS in their final four games.  They scored just 14 points in their final game of the season -- a 24 point loss at Ohio, as a 5.5-point underdog.  The Mid-American Conference is, generally speaking, a horrible football conference.  And it's teams have gone 12-25-1 ATS as a favorite in the Bowls, if they were off a straight-up loss in their previous game.  Take the Aggies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Over in the Denver/Los Angeles Rams game. The Broncos opened the season with 11 unders in their first 12 games. And after that start to the season, the oddsmakers continually adjusted the Over/Under lines to get us to the point today where we are at. By my math, the value in Denver's Over/Unders has been on the Over the last two games, and not surprisingly, both went Over the total.  I think there's also value on the Over in this game, as the line is still just too low.  Indeed,it's been 11 seasons since the Rams have seen an Over/Under line this low. And it's tied for the lowest Over/Under line in a Broncos game over the past 11 seasons. Take the Rams & Broncos to go Over the total. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St Blue Raiders + the points over San Diego St.  The Blue Raiders ended the season on a 3-game win streak (2-1 ATS) to finish 7-5 on the season.  The Aztecs also were 7-5, but ended the season with a whimper, as they lost, 13-3, to Air Force.  They're laying a sizable amount of points today to Middle Tennessee, but I can't get behind an SDSU team which was 2-4 ATS as a favorite.  Even worse:  Mountain West Conference favorites of more than 3 points have gone 6-19 ATS in bowl games vs. foes not off a SU/ATS loss.  And Mountain West teams are 4-9 ATS their last 13 vs. Conference USA foes in Bowl games.  With San Diego State entering with a 1-6 ATS mark in the post-season when favored by more than 3 points, we'll take the Underdog Blue Raiders tonight.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Philadelphia.  We played against the Eagles last week, and cashed our NFC Underdog of the Month on the Chicago Bears.  This will be Philly's 3rd straight road game, and underdogs playing their 3rd straight road game, off back to back wins, have gone 24-37-1 ATS since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys lost, 40-34, at Jacksonville.  But the Cowboys are 25–12-1 ATS off an upset road loss, if they were playing an opponent off a SU win, including 7-0 ATS if they allowed 34+ points in that upset loss.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders and San Francisco 49ers Over the total.  Since trading for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense has scored 23, 31, 22, 38, 13, 33, 35 and 21 points, for an average of 27 points per game.  Before getting McCaffrey, the Niners' offense averaged 20.33 ppg.    Not surprisingly, five of San Francisco's first six games went under the total, but since the trade, it has gone OVER the total in five of eight games.  I look for another high-scoring game on Saturday.  Take Washington & San Francisco Over the total

At 1 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Tennessee.  The Titans are 7-7, but mired in a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak.  They now will be hosting a Texans team which is 1-12-1, but still playing hard, as evidenced by their last two losses to the KC Chiefs (30-24, overtime) and Dallas Cowboys (27-23).  I don't want any part of a Titans team without its #1 signal caller, Ryan Tannehill, who underwent ankle surgery, and will be unlikely to play the remainder of this season.  Tennessee will be quarterbacked this afternoon by rookie Mailk Willis.  Houston will be familiar with Willis, as he led Tennessee to a 17-10 win at Houston earlier this season (his first-ever NFL start), as a 1.5-point road favorite.  But non-winning NFL teams off a loss have covered just 34% at home vs revenge-minded foes, if they were favored by less than 7 points (or PK).  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Baltimore/Atlanta game.  The Ravens come into this game off 3 low-scoring contests vs. Denver (10-9), Pittsburgh (16-14) and Cleveland (13-3).  And each went under the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game, here.  But NFL games have gone OVER the total 58% over the past 43 seasons if a team didn't score 17+ points in any of its three previous games, and those 3 games went Under the total, and totaled, in the aggregate, 80 or less points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Detroit.  This is Carolina's final home game of the season, and they're off a loss to Pittsburgh where they failed to cover the spread by 11 points.  Meanwhile, Detroit’s off three straight wins, and has won 6 of 7.  We’ll take Carolina, as home teams have covered 59% of their final home games of the season if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Take the Panthers.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Houston/Louisiana Lafayette game.  This Independence Bowl match-up will pit 9-3 Houston (from the American Athletic Conference) vs. 6-6 Louisiana (from the Sun Belt).  When the Cougars have been installed as a double-digit favorite, their games have generally been high-scoring, and have gone 11-3-1 ATS Over the total, including 4-0-1 Over their last 5.  BUT when Houston's been installed as a favorite of LESS than 10 points, they've gone Under 30-11 their last 41.  Here, of course, Houston is a single-digit favorite, which bodes well for the Under.  As does the fact that Louisiana is 28-16-1 Under its last 45, including 9-2 Under as an underdog of less than 13 points.  Finally, American Athletic Conference teams have played 7 straight Unders in Bowl games since 2021; are 8-0 Under their last 8 as a favorite in the Bowls; and have gone 13-2 Under their last 15 Bowl games, overall.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Air Force.  The Falcons were 9-3 on the season, while Baylor was 6-6.  But the Bears played a rugged Big 12 schedule (as well as a road game at BYU), while Air Force played a comparatively-easy Mountain West schedule.  The Falcons played 4 teams that earned a bowl bid this season:  Wyoming, San Diego St, Boise St. and Utah St.  And Air Force went 1-3 in those games, with its lone win coming against San Diego St.  This is a big step-up in class for Air Force, and I don't think they'll get the job done tonight.  And especially not with Baylor coming into this game off a SU/ATS loss to Texas.  Key stat:  Baylor's 13-0-1 off an ATS loss when matched up against a foe with a W/L percentage greater than .600.  Take the Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames plus the points over Toledo.  The Flames have been installed as an underdog for this Boca Raton Bowl.  And Liberty is a solid 14-4 ATS its last 18 when not favored by more than 3 points.  Toledo, on the other hand, is 18-32-1 ATS in Non-Conference games when playing away from home.  Take Liberty.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose St Spartans minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles won their last 3 games, including a 38-19 win vs. Central Michigan to end its season.  Unfortunately, Eastern Michigan is a wallet-breaking 30-50 ATS off a win, including 5-18 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points with San Jose St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies + the points over Marshall.  It's never been a bad idea to take double-digit underdogs in Bowl games.  And that's because they've gone 85-64-3 ATS since 1980.  So, while I will go with a double-digit Bowl favorite on occasion, it's not something I will do with regularity.  Moreover, Connecticut was blown out, 34-17, by Army in its season-ending game.  And double-digit Bowl dogs have cashed 63% if they didn't win their previous game (compared to 54% if they were off a win).  Meanwhile, Marshall is 17-26 ATS away from home as a favorite of -7+ points, while UConn is 11-5 ATS as an underdog.  Finally, Sun Belt Conference favorites (or PK) are a dismal 41-75-3 ATS in non-conference games, if our Sun Belt team didn't own a losing record.  Take UConn + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, our selection is on the OVER in the Connecticut/Marshall game.  Both of these teams had mid-season stretches where they played a streak of Unders.  UConn went under the total 5 straight games starting on October 1, while Marshall went under in 6 straight games starting on September 24.  But both teams ended the season with high-scoring games that went over the total.  Marshall's season-ending game vs. Georgia St went over the total of 45.5 by 5.5 points, as the Herd lost, 28-23, to the Panthers.  Likewise, Connecticut's season-ending game vs. Army went over the 45-point total by 6 points, as Connecticut lost, 34-17.  And its next-to-last regular season game went over the total of 45 by 24 points, as it upset Liberty, 36-33.  In its last 10 seasons, Marshall has NEVER had a Total this low.  But it's gone Over the total 65% since 2013 when the Over/Under line was less than 48 points.  We'll look for a relatively high scoring game this afternoon.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Washington/New York Giants game.  The Giants' last four games have averaged 51.75 ppg, and three of the four have gone 'over' the total.  We'll look for another relatively-high scoring game on Sunday night, as the Over falls into a 98-53 Totals system of mine.  Take the Over.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Washington.  Last week, the Giants were mauled at home by the Philadelphia Eagles, 48-22.  New York now sits with a 7-5-1 record, and would earn the 7th (and final) NFC playoff berth, based on the current standings.  We'll grab the points with New York, as it's 14-4 ATS off a home loss by 20+ points.   And it's also 27-11 ATS as an underdog of +2.5 (or more) points vs. division rivals, if New York owned a winning record.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/Cincinnati game.  We played on the Buccaneers to go Over the total last week, in their game against San Francisco, and were rewarded with a 35-7 49ers blowout.  We'll look for this game to go Over the total, as well, as Tom Brady's teams have gone OVER 11 of 14 games after scoring less than 10 points, including 6-0 OVER if they lost that previous game by 17+ points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  Last week, Tom Brady & Co. played about as bad a game as they could have, and were destroyed by San Francisco, 35-7.  But off that 28-point blowout loss, we'll take the Bucs to bounce back on this afternoon.  Indeed, over the last 43 years, home dogs of more than 3 points that scored 7 or less, and allowed 35 or more in their previous game, have covered 62%.  We saw this situation earlier this season when Pittsburgh was blown out, 38-3, by Buffalo.  They played these Bucs in their next game, and we had a huge play on the Steelers as a 9.5-point underdog.  They won outright, 20-18.  Coincidentally, that game marked the start of Tampa's decline this season.  The Bucs were 3-2 entering that contest, but have gone 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS from that point.  Of course, the oddsmakers have significantly adjusted the numbers for Tampa, such that it's now installed as a home dog vs. Cincy.  I won't pass up this opportunity to play on Tampa, as Tom Brady's teams are 16-0 ATS their last 16 (and 25-2 ATS their last 27) off a straight-up loss, if they weren't favored by more than 1 point!  Take the Buccaneers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New England.  The Raiders were upset by the Rams last Thursday night, as a road favorite, while New England won and covered as a road favorite at Arizona.  We'll take the Raiders, as teams off an upset loss as a road favorite have gone 54-33 ATS vs. foes off an SU/ATS win as a road favorite.

At 1:00 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Philadelphia.  The Bears come into this game on a 6-game losing streak.  And they've also failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.  We'll take Chicago as a big home dog, as it's cashed 83% over the last 43 seasons as a home underdog of +6 (or more) points, if it didn't cover the spread in its two previous games.  Even better:  the Bears had their Bye week last weekend.  And NFL teams off their Bye week have cashed 67.7% as a home dog of more than 5 points.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Boise St.  The Mean Green won't have to travel far from their Denton campus to this Frisco Bowl game, so they'll have most of today's crowd rooting for them.  We'll fade Boise St, as the Broncos have burned money in the post-season when favored by less than 12 points, as they're 1-8 ATS their last nine!  And double-digit Conference USA underdogs have gone 14-7 ATS in Bowl games.  Take North Texas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins to go OVER the total.  Yes, it's the month of December, and wintry weather conditions are afoot.  But the forecast for Saturday night isn't horribly bad.  There's a little bit of snowfall in the forecast, with winds in the 10 mph to 15 mph range, and a temperature of 22 degrees.  I like the Over in this game, as this is a relatively-low total for a Bills game.  Indeed, in the past three seasons only eight Buffalo games have had a lower number than what we currently see for this game.  And the Bills went OVER the total in six of those eight games.  Similarly, the Dolphins have played 30 games over the past two seasons.  Only 7 of those 30 had a lower number than this game, and Miami went Over the total in four of those seven.  Earlier this season, the number posted for the Bills game in Miami was 54; last year, the two games had lines of 48.5 and 48.  By my math, the value clearly is on the side of the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:45 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls + the points over Southern Miss.  These two teams know each other well, as they battled virtually every year as members of Conference USA.  But Southern Miss left this year for the Sun Belt Conference, so this meeting will be the first time they met in a Bowl game.  Rice won each of the past two seasons (both SU and ATS), and is 8-4 ATS vs. Southern Miss in this series.  It's true that the Owls ended their season with 3 straight losses.  But College football underdogs of 6+ points have covered 68% in post-season games since 1980 off 3+ losses.  Take Rice + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington St Cougars + the points over Fresno St.  The Bulldogs are a horrid 4-15 ATS away from home, when favored against a non-conference foe, including 1-7 ATS in Bowl games.  Take Washington St.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Oregon State.  The Gators are 18-7 ATS as underdogs of +5 (or more) points away from home, when matched up against a foe off a point spread win.  And Oregon State is 2-14 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes off a loss, including 0-8 ATS when favored by 7+ points.  Grab the points with the Gators.

At 1 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Minnesota.  I continue to believe the Vikings are overrated.  Last week, I played on the Lions -2.5 over Minnesota as my NFC North Division Game of the Year, and the Lions shellacked the Vikings, 34-23.  This week, Minny returns home to face the well-rested Colts, who are off their Bye week.  Two weeks ago, the Colts were blown out by the Cowboys, 54-19.  But that was a highly misleading final, as the score was 21-19 with 14 minutes left in the game, before Dallas exploded for 33 points in the fourth quarter.  We'll take Jeff Saturday's men to bounce back, as Indianapolis is a wallet-fattening 32-8 ATS off a straight-up loss, if it failed to cover the spread by 8 or more points in that defeat.  Additionally, NFL teams that gave up more than 52 points in their previous game have rebounded to go 10-0 ATS their last 10 (and 21-3 ATS their last 24), provided they weren't playing a revenge-minded opponent which they beat in the same, or prior season.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 11 am, our selection is on the Over in the Louisville/Cincinnati game.  This Fenway Bowl game matches Louisville from the ACC against Cincinnati from the American Athletic Conference.  In games between schools from the ACC and AAC, the OVER has cashed 69% when the Over/Under line was 51 points or less. The Over/Under line in this game actually opened at 45, but has been significantly lowered from that opener.  By my math, the current number confers great value on the Over, and I'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on this Saturday.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over San Francisco.  The Seahawks received welcome news this week when RB Kenneth Walker III returned to practice.  And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Seattle, as it has been hampered without its top 2 running backs (Walker, Rashaad Penny) on the field.  The 49ers, of course, have their own injury problems.  WR Deebo Samuel went down last week, and will miss tonight's game.  QB Brock Purdy is questionable (though I assume he will play).  Last week, the Seahawks lost here, at home, to Carolina, as a 3.5-point favorite.  We'll take Seattle to bounce back, as winning teams are 62% ATS at home since 1980 off an upset loss, if their opponent won its previous game by more than 14 points.  With SF in off a 28-point blowout win over Tampa, grab the points with Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/San Francisco 49ers game.  Prior to acquiring star running back, Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense averaged just 20.3 ppg, their games averaged 35.1 ppg, and five of the six went Under the total.  Now, since the trade, their offense is averaging 26.6 ppg, while their games have averaged 43.5 ppg, and four of the six have gone Over the total.  So, while it's true that Tampa's last four games have been low-scoring, and have gone Under the total, Tom Brady's teams have gone Over the total 29-16 off back-to-back Unders, and 12-4 following 3+ Unders.  Take the Bucs and 49ers Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Kansas City/Denver game.  The Broncos have played their last 8 games under the total.  But I'll look for a high-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL teams off 6+ Unders have gone Over the total 55.4% since 1980 if the O/U line was 47 or less points.  Even better:  the Broncos have gone Over 55-32 at home when the line ranged from 42.5 to 45.5 points.  And the Chiefs have gone Over 13-5 their last 18 as a road favorite (and 70-47 Over their last 117 as a road favorite).  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Minnesota.  The Vikings come into this road game off 3 straight home games.  And unrested road teams off 3 home games — including a SU/ATS win at home the previous week — have gone 67-96 ATS since 1980.  That doesn't bode well for the Vikings here, at Ford Field.  Detroit has quietly covered its last five games.  And, at home this season, the Lions have outscored their foes 223-195, even though its opponents have included the likes of four current playoff teams (Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Seahawks), as well as the Commanders and Packers.  For the season, the Lions are 8-3 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 2.70 ppg (Minnesota has a negative point spread differential of -1.20).  At home, Detroit's spread margin improves to +6.71, while Minnesota's road point spread differential is minus 0.30.  The Lions lost a heartbreaker earlier this season, 28-24, but covered the number in defeat.  And they've won the last 4 ATS vs. the Vikings.  The revenge-minded team in this NFC North division rivalry which lost the season's earlier meeting has gone 26-13-2 ATS.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles come into this game off back to back high-scoring home wins.  They defeated the Packers two weeks ago, 40-33.  And they blew out Tennessee, 35-10, last week.  But NFL road favorites have covered just 35.2% since 1980 off back to back home wins in which they scored more than 30 points.  That doesn't bode well for Philly in this divisional game.  Nor does the fact that the Giants are 63-40 ATS as an underdog vs. .700 (or better) foes.  Take the New York Giants + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  Both of these teams were blown out last week.  The Jags lost by 26 to Detroit, while Tennessee lost by 25 to Philly.  This is the first meeting of the season between these division rivals.  They’ll also meet in the last week of the regular season.  The Titans shut out Jacksonville, 20-0, in the previous meeting last season.  And revenge-minded, road underdogs that were shut out in the previous meeting have gone 64-48 ATS in the regular season since 1980.  That bodes well for the underdog Jaguars this afternoon.  As does the fact that Tennessee is a horrible 34-54 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -3 to -12.5 points.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Buffalo/New York Jets game.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Jets pulled off a huge upset, 20-17, and held the Bills to their season-low in points.  That game went Under the total of 46 by 9 points.  Today's number is lower, and the Over falls into a 113-69 Totals system of mine, which is the way we'll look here.  Additionally, the Bills are 82-55 Over the total when priced as a favorite of -4 to -11 points, while the Jets have gone Over the total 67% since 1987 when playing a revenge-minded foe it upset earlier in the year.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Army Black Knights minus the points over Navy.  The Midshipmen come into this game -- at Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field -- off an upset win over Central Florida, 17-14, as a 14.5-point underdog.  But that was just Navy's 4th win on the season (against 7 losses).  They'll now face an Army team which is a red-hot 5-0 ATS its last five after blowing out UMass, 44-7.  We'll lay the points with Army, as NCAA favorites (or PK) off 4 ATS wins have gone 79-42 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. foes that don't have a winning record (including 7-0 ATS the last 7).  And if our red-hot team was playing a non-conference opponent, then our 79-42 record moves to a perfect 8-0 ATS.  Take Army.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game.  These two NFC South division rivals met earlier in the season, and the Bucs triumphed, 20-10.  The Over/Under line in that game was 43.5, so it went under the total.  I look for a much higher scoring game on Monday, as NFL games have gone OVER the total 11 straight games (and 60% since 2011) if the season's previous meeting totaled 38 or less points, and also went under the total.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Colts were upset on Monday Night Football by the Pittsburgh Steelers, 24-17.  But off that loss, we'll take Indy on Sunday night, as it's 33-8 ATS off a straight-up loss, if it failed to cover the point spread in that previous game by 7+ points.  Even better:  NFL double-digit underdogs have cashed 66.1% the past 43 years off back to back home losses, if they were playing an opponent off back to back wins.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Denver/Baltimore game.  The Broncos have played their last 7 games under the total.  But after playing 5 straight games where their defense held their opponents to less than 20 points, the Broncos have surrendered 22 and 23 points in their two previous games.  And this weekend, they're playing a Ravens team which is averaging 25.0 ppg, and has scored 20+ points in nine of its 11 games.  Baltimore will put points on the board.  And I expect a relatively-high scoring game, as NFL teams on a streak of 6+ Unders have proceeded to go Over the total 55.5%.  Take the Ravens/Broncos over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Clemson.  The Tar Heels come into this ACC Championship game off back to back losses to Georgia Tech and NC State.  I look for North Carolina to rebound on Saturday night, as it's 37-19 ATS off back to back losses, including 22-10 ATS as an underdog of 7+ points.  Meanwhile, Clemson is a soft 19-36-1 ATS as a favorite of -7 (or more) points when playing a foe off back to back losses.  Even worse:  the Tigers are 11-30 ATS as a favorite away from home, if it was off an ATS loss in its previous game (and 1-12 ATS if the Tigers were off a SU loss).  Take North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Michigan.  Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines won their school's biggest game since they defeated Washington State on January 1, 1998 to earn their last National Championship.  Michigan was a 9-point road underdog, but routed its biggest rival, Ohio State, 45-23, last Saturday in a dominant performance.  It's widely accepted that even a loss to Purdue won't injure Michigan's chances to be in the 4-team playoffs later this month.  So, given this backdrop, we'll have no problem pulling the trigger on the double-digit underdog Boilermakers.  Last week, we had our Big 10 Conference Game of the Year on Purdue, and it rewarded us with a 14-point win over Indiana.  We'll grab the points with the Boilermakers here, and note that Michigan is an awful 0-7 ATS off an upset win over a previously undefeated Big 10 foe.  Additionally, the underdog has gone 7-3-1 in Big 10 Championship games.  And Purdue is 14-1-1 ATS away from home as an underdog of more than 12 points in Big 10 games, if its opponent was off a win.  Take the Boilermakers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Troy.  Coastal Carolina was bombed, 47-7, by James Madison last week, while Troy routed Arkansas State, 48-19.  We'll take Coastal Carolina to bounce back, as road underdogs of more than 4 points in Sun Belt Conference games have gone 83-42 ATS off a loss, if they failed to cover the spread by 5+ points in that defeat.  Take Coastal Carolina.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets + the points over Ohio.  Last week, Toledo mustered just 14 points, and was upset, 20-14, by Western Michigan, as a 9.5-point road favorite.  Meanwhile, Ohio put up 38 points in a blowout win over Bowling Green.  We'll lay the points with Toledo, as it's 11-0 ATS as a favorite of -3 (or more) points, if it scored less than 17 points in its previous game.  Even better:  NCAA teams have covered 71% of Conference Title games since 2009 if they scored 20+ less points in their final regular season game than did their current opponent.  Take the Rockets minus the points.

At 1 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Akron/Buffalo game.  Five of the last six meetings (and 10 of the last 15) between these two Mid-American Conference rivals have gone Under the total.  And that's the way we'll look, here.  It's true that Buffalo has played its last four games over the total.  But Mid-American Conference teams are 20-10 UNDER their last 30 after playing their three previous games over the total.  And the Under also falls into one of my favorite Totals systems which has cashed 64%.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMcMordie

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Defending Super Bowl champions have never — at least not since 1980 which is when my database starts — been an underdog of +14 (or more) points….until now.  But they have done well as an underdog of +5 or more points, as they’ve gone 17-9 ATS.  And defending champs have also gone 28-15-2 ATS on the road off a loss vs. a foe off a win.  The Rams fall into two of my favorite systems, with records of 156-85 and 337-232 ATS, that play on certain losing teams off losses.  We'll grab the points with L.A.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Cards were blown out by San Francisco this past Monday in Mexico, 38-10.  But off that loss, we'll step in and take Kyler Murray & Co. this afternoon.  Indeed, home underdogs are 60.1% ATS if they gave up 38+ points in their previous game, and failed to cover the spread in that game by 10 or more points.  Additionally, Arizona is 12-0 ATS following a loss by 17 or more points, if it was playing a .500 (or worse) foe in its current game.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans over the Cincinnati Bengals.  When these two teams last met, the Bengals bounced the #1-seeded Titans out of the Playoffs.  We'll take Tennessee this afternoon, as home teams are 62% ATS when playing with revenge from an upset playoff loss, if they were off a win.  Even better:  Tennessee comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins over Denver and Green Bay.  And home dogs/pk are 121-90 ATS in non-division games off back to back wins.  Take the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Denver/Carolina game.  The Broncos come into this game off six straight Unders, while Carolina enters off back to back Unders.  Last week, the Broncos scored just 16 points, while the Panthers scored just three.  The result is that this O/U line is the lowest Total for the Broncos in 11 seasons, and the lowest Total for the Panthers in 12 seasons!  By my math, it's too low.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 11 forward, NFL teams that averaged less than 15.9 ppg on offense, and whose games totaled, on average, less than 32 ppg, have gone OVER the total 65.1%.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the USC/Notre Dame game.  Last week, the Trojans outlasted rival, UCLA, 48-45, while Notre Dame blew out Boston College, 44-0.  These two teams tend to play lower-scoring games, and have gone Under each of the last three meetings, and are 17-10-1 Under the last 28.  Additionally, the Fighting Irish are 17-3 Under when playing an opponent which scored more than 42 points in its previous game.  We'll look for another relatively-low scoring game on Saturday evening.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies + the points over LSU.  Brian Kelly's Tigers are having a super season.  They're 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS.  But the one negative spot for them is that they're 0-3 ATS as a favorite away from Baton Rouge.  They lost SU/ATS against Florida St, and also didn't cover as a favorite vs. Auburn and Arkansas.  At 4-7, Texas A&M won't be going to a bowl game this season.  So, tonight's game IS its "Bowl Game."  And the Aggies are a solid 18-6 ATS their last 24 as home underdogs of more than 5 points.  Take Texas A&M + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over TCU.  All good things must eventually come to an end, so don't be surprised if TCU's win streak goes by the wayside on this Saturday.  Iowa State is giving up just 16.5 ppg this season (TCU gives up 25.5).  And at Game 11 forward, NCAA underdogs/pk off a loss, with a defense that gives up less than 17.5 ppg, have gone 57-24-3 ATS vs. foes off a win.   Take Iowa State + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Michigan State.  The Nittany Lions have won all nine games this season other than the two they played against the #2 (Ohio State) and #3 (Michigan) teams in the country.  And dating back to December 5, 2020, the Nittany Lions are 12-0 SU/ATS when priced from -4 to -24 points!  Lay the wood with Penn State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon St. Beavers + the points over Oregon.  The Beavers have been a point spread covering machine in Corvallis.  Over the last 2 seasons, they're a perfect 11-0 ATS.  Even better:  the revenger in this rivalry is 16-7-1 ATS.  With Oregon State off a 38-29 loss to the Ducks last season, we'll take the Beavers + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Indiana.  The Hoosiers snapped their 7-game losing streak last week when they upset Michigan St, 39-31, as a 12.5-point road underdog.  We'll look for Indiana to go back to its losing ways on Saturday, as it's 47-74 ATS as a home underdog, and 0-8 ATS after winning a game, straight-up, as a 9-point (or greater) dog.  Lay the points with Purdue.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors are on a 6-1 ATS run, including back to back ATS wins over Utah St and UNLV in their previous two games.  But the Rainbows are 2-15 SU and 4-13 ATS as an underdog on the road off back to back ATS wins.  And they're 9-16 ATS vs. San Jose.  Lay it.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes + the points over Buffalo.  Both of these teams enter today's game off a loss.  Buffalo fell, 31-27, at Central Michigan in its previous game.  Meanwhile, the Golden Flashes were upset, 31-24, by Eastern Michigan last week.  But off that upset loss, we'll grab the points with Kent St, as MAC Conference teams have gone 58-32-1 ATS on the road off an upset loss, when playing an opponent also off a loss.  Take Kent St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Clemson/South Carolina Under the total.  Eight of the last 11 games in this Palmetto State rivalry have gone Under the total, including last year's 30-0 win by the Tigers.  Both teams did go Over the total last week.  But Clemson is 20-11 UNDER off an Over, while South Carolina is 24-12 Under off an Over.  Take the UNDER.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Georgia Tech.  Georgia played (for it) a lackluster game last week.  It won by 10 points over Kentucky, 16-6, as a 22-point favorite.  Still, the Bulldogs have been the best team in football over the past two seasons.  They're 25-1 SU and 16-10 ATS.  And they're 8-1 ATS off a point spread defeat. This afternoon, they'll welcome their cross-state rival, Georgia Tech, to Athens.  But it hasn't been much of a rivalry the past 31 seasons.  Since 1991, Georgia is 24-6 SU and 21-8-1 ATS vs. the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech is a wallet-breaking 21-36 ATS its last 57, including 5-17 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points with Georgia.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Florida St.  The Gators were upset by Vandy last week, as a double-digit favorite.  This week, they're an underdog, and the Gators are 12-4 ATS their last 16 as a dog (compare to 3-16-1 ATS their last 20 as a favorite).  Take Florida + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the California/UCLA game Under the total.  The last nine meetings (and 11 of the last 12) between the Bruins and Bears have gone UNDER the total.  And that's the way we'll look in this game, as the UNDER also falls into a 62% Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Western Michigan.  The Broncos come into this game off an upset road win at Central Michigan.  But they're back home today, and they're a horrid 8-22 ATS as a home underdog.  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Baylor.  The Bears defeated Texas, 31-24, last season.  We'll lay the points in this revenge match, as Baylor's 0-26 straight-up, an 8-16-2 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe, and getting 6+ points.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati/Tulane game UNDER the total.  The winner of this game will claim the AAC regular season title, so the stakes are high.  The game is priced near Pk'em.  And that bodes well for a low-scoring game, as the Bearcats have gone UNDER 33-16 in competitively-priced games with a spread of 3 or less.  They've also gone UNDER 88-63 vs. conference foes.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots over the total.  The Patriots come into this game off 3 straight unders.  But the Pats have gone OVER the total 65% since 2010 if they were off 3+ unders.  Even better:  the Vikings were blown out last week by Dallas, 40-3.  But Minnesota has gone OVER the total 15 of 18 off a loss, including 7 straight off a double-digit loss.  Finally, the Over falls into two of my favorite Totals systems with records of 114-79 and 53-28.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Bowling Green.  This game is between the top 2 teams in the MAC East division.  Ohio comes in with a 6-1 conference record, while Bowling Green enters with a 5-2 record.  Last week, Bowling Green upset Toledo, 42-35, as a 14.5-point underdog.  But MAC road underdogs of +4 (or more) points have covered just 34% off a win, if they were matched up against an opponent with a better conference record playing its final home game of the season.  The Bobcats are riding a 6-game win streak, and have covered each of their last seven games.  Take Ohio minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Washington Commanders.  The Commanders upset the then-undefeated Philadelphia Eagles last week, 33-21, and are now 5-5 on the season.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Washington on the road against Houston.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL road favorites of less than 6 points (or PK) have covered just 29.6% off an upset win on Monday Night Football.  Even better:  Houston's 16-7 ATS at home off back to back losses, when not favored by more than 7 pionts vs. a foe off a win.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons are 6-4 ATS this season, but all six of their ATS wins have come when they were an underdog.  Today, Atlanta is favored.  And the Falcons have been horrible as a favorite, as they’re 28-50 ATS including 6-23 ATS as a home favorite when laying 3.5 or less points.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  When we last saw the Jets, they were upsetting the Buffalo Bills as a 10.5-point road underdog.  We'll fade the Flyboys off that upset win, as winning NFL teams have cashed just 33% on the road since 1980 off a win as an underdog of more than 10 points.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Chicago Bears/Atlanta Falcons game.  Nine of the last 11 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER the total, and we'll look for this game to follow suit.  It's true that the Bears come into this game off 4 straight Overs.  But NFL teams off 4+ Overs tend to go UNDER the total in their next game, and especially when the line was > 46 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado/Washington game Under the total.  These two teams have generally played low-scoring contests, as the last 5 meetings have all gone UNDER the total.  And that's the way we will look here, as the Under falls into a 62% totals system of mine.  For their part, the Huskies have played their last 3 games Under, and are also 14-9 Under off 3+ unders.  Meanwhile, the Buffaloes have gone Under in 10 of 13 November home games.  Take the Under.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Under in the USC/UCLA game. It’s true that USC has gone OVER the total in its last 4 games, and that the last 4 meetings between these two schools have also gone OVER. But teams off 3 or more overs have gone UNDER the total 61.9% when the OU line was greater than 71 points.  Take the Under.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Wake Forest.  The Orange come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, and only scored 12 points combined in their 2 previous games.  But we'll grab the points, as road underdogs are 108-82 ATS in conference games, if they were off back to back SU/ATS losses, and failed to score 10+ points in each of their two previous games.  Take Syracuse.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over New Mexico St.  The Tigers were blown out last week, 66-24, by Tennessee.  The good news is that the Aggies are nowhere near as talented as Tennessee.  We'll take Missouri to bounce back in a big way on Saturday night, as it's 14-1 ATS at home off a loss the previous week, if it was favored by 13 or more points in its current game.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri/New Mexico St game to go UNDER the total. Missouri had gone UNDER 8 straight games before last week's game at Tennessee, while New Mexico St had gone UNDER in 3 straight games (and 6 of 8) before last week's game vs. Lamar.  I look for these teams to play to form on Saturday night, and for this to be a low-scoring game.  For technical support, consider that Missouri has gone under 16-0-1 since October 26, 2013 at home, if it wasn't getting 7+ points in the game, and the OU Line was 54 or less points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Temple.  The Bearcats have lost each of their last 5 games ATS.  And this long ATS losing streak is working to confer betting value on the side of the Bearcats.  We'll lay the points today, as we note that Temple is a wallet-busting 7-15 ATS its last 22 as underdogs.  Take the Bearcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Iowa.  The Gophers will look to snap their 7-game losing streak to Iowa today.  And I think they'll get the job done, as the Gophers have given up just 6.67 ppg in their six home games this season (5-1 ATS).  Minnesota is 17-10-1 ATS at home vs. FBS schools the past 5 seasons, including 6-3 ATS with revenge.  And revenge-minded teams with stellar defenses that allow less than 14.6 ppg, have covered 65% of their final home games of the season.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over Louisiana Monroe.  The Warhawks upset Georgia State last week, 31-28, as a 13.5-point road underdog.  We'll fade Monroe on this Saturday afternoon, as Troy has gone 18-7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 7-0-1 ATS if Troy owned a W/L percentage of .700+.  Additionally, Sun Belt teams have covered just 10 of 35 games off an upset win as an underdog of more than 9 points, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes with a W/L percentage > .700.  Take Troy minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Boston College.  BC upset NC State last week, 21-20, as an 18-point underdog.  We'll fade the Eagles on Saturday in South Bend, as underdogs of +15 (or more) points have gone 1-12 ATS in non-conference games off an upset road win as a 15-point (or greater) underdog.  Take Notre Dame minus the points

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Arizona.  Last week, the Wildcats shocked UCLA as a 20-point underdog, 34-28.  But Pac-12 teams with a losing record are a horrid 17-40 ATS off an upset win as an underdog of +8 (or more) points.  Before last week's upset, Arizona had lost its four previous games -- each by more than 7 points -- so I expect it to revert to form on Saturday.  Lay the points with Washington St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Kansas St.  The Wildcats blew out Baylor, 31-3, as a 2.5-point road underdog last week.  We'll fade Kansas State here, as road favorites have covered just 36% since 1980 in conference games following an upset win by 28+ points against a conference foe.  Take West Virginia + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Houston/East Carolina game.  The Cougars have scored 42, 63 and 43 in their last three games.  And they've given up 27, 77 and 36.  Dating back to 2013, NCAA Football games have gone Under 67% of the time if a team scored 140+ points, and gave up 140+ points in its three previous games.  And the Under also falls into one of my two favorite College Football totals systems, which has cashed 62%.  Take the Under.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes are having a nice season, with a 6-3 SU/ATS record.  But we'll fade them in this game, as the Panthers are 24-12-1 ATS away from home vs. .500 (or better) teams.  Take Georgia State.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Texas-San Antonio/Rice game.  The Roadrunners have gone under in four of their last five games and that's the way we'll look for this game vs. the Owls.  This will be the 10th meeting between these schools since 2012, and seven of the previous nine have gone under the total (including all four games played here, at Rice).  The Under also falls into a College Football totals system of mine which has cashed 61.8% since 2013.  Take the Under.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over TCU.  Baylor's 3-game win streak was snapped by Kansas State last week, as the Wildcats blew out the Bears, 31-3.  They'll now take on undefeated TCU.  The Horned Frogs upset Texas last week, 17-10, as a 7.5-point underdog, and have a clear path toward the playoffs if they can continue to win.  Of course, that's easier said than done.  And we'll look for the mild upset in Waco, on Saturday.  Indeed, Big 12 teams have covered just 22.7% since 1981 off an upset win as a dog of more than 5 points, if they were playing an opponent off a SU loss, and weren't getting more than 4 points in the current game.  Take Baylor + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Commodores snapped their 5-game losing streak last week, as they went into Lexington, and upset Kentucky, 24-21, as a 17-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, SEC teams off an upset conference win as a dog of more than 9 points have fallen flat the next week when matched up against winning SEC teams, as they've gone 9-24 ATS (and 0-7 ATS when getting more than 10 points).  Moreover, the Commodores are 4-16 ATS their last 20 home games, including 0-9 ATS when not getting 16+ points.  Take Florida minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Tennessee.  We played on the Packers last Sunday as our NFC Game of the Month, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Dallas Cowboys in overtime.  We'll come right back with Green Bay tonight, as it's 64-41 ATS with Aaron Rodgers under center, as a favorite of less than 13 points vs. a foe not off an ATS loss.  Even better:  with Rodgers, Green Bay is an awesome 30-11-2 ATS at home vs. a foe off a SU/ATS win.  And, finally, the Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in Thursday games with Rodgers, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. a foe off a win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  We played on the Packers as a big underdog vs. Buffalo, and got the $$$$ with Aaron Rodgers & Co.  Unfortunately for Green Bay, it faltered last week as a favorite in the Motor City against the Lions.  Now, Green Bay has been installed as a home underdog, and we'll once again take the points with Green Bay.  Indeed, the Packers are 70-41-4 ATS in Aaron Rodgers' home starts, including 5-1-1 ATS as an underdog!  And they're 8-1 ATS (whether home or away) as an underdog off an upset loss.  Green Bay also falls into 306-202, 372-274 and 195-101 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams against superior opponents.  Finally, Dallas has covered just 33% since 1980 as a road favorite off a SU win, if they were matched up against a foe off an upset loss.  Grab the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears minus the points over the Detroit Lions.  The Bears come into this game off back to back losses to Dallas and Miami, while Detroit upset the Packers last week.  The good news for Justin Fields & Co. is that Chicago is 44-22 ATS at home off 2 or more losses, if the Bears weren’t favored by 3.5 (or more) points, including 23-6 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.  Take Chicago minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New York.  After pulling upset wins in five of their first seven games, the Giants finally came back down to Earth in their last game, and were blown out by the Seattle Seahawks.  This game against Houston will be the first time this season that the Giants are favored by more than a field goal in almost 2 years!  I hate laying a lot of points with teams that are unaccustomed to doing so.  And the Giants are a horrible 4-16 ATS at home when they owned a winning record, and were favored by more than a field goal (compared to 11-1-1 ATS their last 12 at home when NOT favored by more than 3 points).  Take Houston + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  Last week, the Broncos had their bye week following their upset win against Jacksonville, 21-17.  Denver has historically been terrific in the regular season off its bye week, as it's 25-7 ATS, including 12-1 ATS when not laying more than 3 points.  Last Sunday night, the Titans almost pulled off a big upset at Kansas City, as a 14-point underdog, but ended up losing by 3 points, 20-17.  It's true that the Titans covered the spread for the 6th straight game last week.  But unrested NFL favorites, off 6 (or more) ATS wins, are a soft 56-71-2 ATS since 1980, including 6-15 ATS if they scored less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Denver + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers over the New Orleans Saints.  The Steelers come into this game off a 22-point blowout loss at Philadelphia.  But the good news for Pittsburgh is that it has been dominant at home in the regular season in matchups between non-winning teams, if Pittsburgh was off a point spread loss, as it's gone 38-13 ATS, including 19-0 ATS if it lost its previous game by 18+ points.  Take the Steelers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + Detroit Lions to go UNDER the total.  Detroit's first four games this season were extremely high scoring, as they averaged 70.25 ppg.  But its last four games have seen a precipitous drop-off in points, as they've averaged a mere 35.25 ppg -- which is 50.1% of the number of points scored in the first four games.  Last week, Detroit played its lowest-scoring game yet, as it defeated Aaron Rodgers & the Packers, 15-9.  I look for this game to be relatively-low scoring as well.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Minnesota.  QB Josh Allen has been upgraded to 'probable,' which is all I needed to pull the trigger on Buffalo this afternoon.  The Bills suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Jets last week.  But the Bills are 16-4 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss, if they’re playing a non-division opponent off a SU win.  And they're 11-0-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU win, if the Bills owned a .600 (or better) win percentage, and were off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points with Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, in a game played in Munich, Germany, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Seattle.  The Bucs won last week, 16-13, vs. the LA Rams, but pushed against the spread.  And they have not covered since Week 2 vs. New Orleans.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 4-0 SU/ATS their last four.  I'll lay the points with Tampa, as teams off back to back wins have covered just 22% of NFL games played overseas (vs. foes not off back to back wins).  That doesn't bode well for Seattle.  Even worse, teams off 3 (or more) SU/ATS wins have covered just 27% vs. foes on a 6-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Lay the points with Tom Brady & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Florida St.  We played against the Orange last week, and got the $$$$ with Pittsburgh in its 19-9 triumph.  Today, we'll back Syracuse as Florida State is a dreadful 35-62-4 ATS vs. conference foes not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Syracuse + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.