At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Texans are 0-3 straight-up and ATS this season.  But Indianapolis isn't much better, as it's won just once this season.  And one of the things I love to do is play on winless SU/ATS teams, at Game 4 forward, on the road, as underdogs (or PK) vs. losing teams.  Our winless teams have covered 65.5% since 1980 in this situation, so that bodes very well for Houston on Sunday.  Moreover, Houston lost last week, at home, as a 6.5-point favorite.  And road underdogs (or PK) off an upset home loss, as a 6.5 point (or bigger) favorite, have covered 58% over the last 38 years.  Take Houston. NFL Division Game of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Buffalo.  Last week, the Bills pulled off the biggest upset in 23 years, as they won outright as a 16.5-point underdog at Minnesota.  The last team to achieve such a victory was Washington, back in 1995, when it upset Dallas, 24-17, as a 17.5-point dog.  But what was most impressive wasn't that Buffalo won, it was that it won by 21 points.  Unfortunately, I don't think it will win back-to-back games.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off upset wins as double-digit road underdogs have gone 56-80 ATS in their next game, including 17-33 ATS if they were playing back-to-back road games.  And the Packers have gone 47-25 ATS at home with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback, including 14-2 ATS vs. opponents off a road win.  Take Green Bay.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  The Dolphins have sprinted out to a 3-0 start this season, while New England is lagging behind with a 1-2 record. But I believe the Dolphins will come back down to earth on Sunday. Indeed, since 2002, there have been 15 undefeated teams, with a record of 3-0 or better that have been installed as an underdog of +5 or more points.  Those 15 teams have gone 1-14 straight-up, and 5-9-1 ATS.  Also, the Patriots have gone 8-0 straight-up, and 7-1 ATS since November 2002 when they were off back to back losses. Finally, home teams have cashed 37 of 54 off upset losses on the road, if their opponent was off three SU/ATS wins.  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Detroit Lions.  Matt Patricia's Lions upset his former team -- the New England Patriots -- as a 7-point underdog last Sunday night.  However, teams that pull off such big upsets rarely win back to back games in the underdog role.  In fact, since 1980, road underdogs have cashed just 42% off a home underdog outright win as a 7-point (or bigger) dog.  And Detroit's a poor 28-56-3 ATS on the road off a win.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  This is a rematch of last year's game, when the Nittany Lions also entered it undefeated, but were handed their first loss, 39-38, by the Buckeyes.  This season, the stakes are just as high, as both teams are unbeaten after four games.  After squeaking by Appalachian State in its opener, Penn State has demolished its last three opponents.  It's won its last three games by a combined 177-40, and has covered the spread by an average of 22.16 ppg.  In contrast, the Buckeyes, who have won their last three games by a combined 141-37, have only had a point spread differential of + 6.5 ppg in their last three.  Unfortunately, for Ohio State, teams playing away from home have gone 0-15 SU/ATS against a revenge-minded foe which scored 122+ points in its two previous games, if our road team didn't score 100+ points in its two previous games.  Even worse for the Buckeyes:  home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points, that average more than 29.5 ppg on offense, off back-to-back wins, have gone 236-164 ATS.  Over the last 3 seasons, Penn State is 13-1 ATS off back-to-back wins, and has covered by an average of 10.66 ppg.  Take the Nittany Lions.  Big 10 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Owls are 2-2 this year, with 2 home wins and 2 road losses. This will be the Owls' 3rd road game of the season. However, in their first two road games they played Oklahoma (currently ranked #6) and Central Florida (currently ranked #13). This road game will be much easier, as Middle Tennessee is unranked, and has nowhere near the talent level of those two other schools. The Owls have been installed as a small favorite in this game. And since November 12, 2016, Florida Atlantic has had a sharp dichotomy in how its performed as a favorite or an underdog. Indeed, the Owls are 14-0 straight-up (9-4-1 ATS) as a favorite, compared to 0-7 straight-up (1-6 ATS) as an underdog. Take the Owls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over Texas El Paso. On the surface, it might look difficult to play on Texas San Antonio, given that it's 0-4 ATS this season. But the Roadrunners fall into a 65% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses. Meanwhile, UTEP has been the worst team in College Football since last season. It's now lost its last 16 games, straight-up, and is 2-23 SU and 6-17-2 ATS its last 25 lined games. Take the Roadrunners minus the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Florida. Last week, Mississippi State was upset, 28-7, as a double-digit favorite at Kentucky, while Florida won, 47-21, as a 4.5-point favorite at Tennessee. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Gators as a touchdown underdog, given that it covered by more than 21 points, while Mississippi State failed to cover last week by 31 points. However, underdogs of 7 or more points off a cover by 21 or more points have cashed just 38% over the last 30 years vs. opponents off a point spread loss by 21 or more points. That's one reason I favor the Bulldogs. Another is that teams off an upset conference loss by 18 or more points, have covered just 24 of 78 conference games since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up and against the spread win. This will be a rout. Lay the points with the Bulldogs. SEC Conference Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Northern Illinois. The Eagles have lost 10 straight games in this series, but have been installed as the favorite. And I love them to finally break through with a win vs. the Huskies, as they fall into a 43-16 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favored teams playing with revenge. Even better: the Eagles have continued to "pay off" in Vegas this season, as they're 3-1 ATS this year, and 20-8 ATS dating back to November 27, 2015 (including 12-2 ATS off a straight-up loss). This will also be the Eagles' first home game after three straight road games. In their only other home game this season, they won 51-17, as a 22.5-point favorite vs. Monmouth. They didn't find the same success away from home, as they went 1-2 SU (but 2-1 ATS). However, I expect them to blow out Northern Illinois, which is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five games away from home. Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Baylor. The Sooners have started this season perfectly, as they're 4-0. But they have failed to cover the point spread for their last three straight games. They'll try to get back into the win column "in Vegas" vs. Baylor this Saturday. Baylor comes into Norman off a 26-7 win over Kansas last week. And we'll lay the points with the Sooners, as undefeated teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record, off three ATS losses, have covered 60% since 1980 vs. foes off a win. Take Oklahoma.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over the Texas Longhorns. Last week, the Longhorns upset TCU, 31-16, as a 2.5-point home underdog. But off that win, we will fade the Longhorns at Kansas State. This will actually be the Longhorns first true road game, played on an opponent's home field, this season. And Texas falls into negative 11-41 and 7-29 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams, off upset wins, playing on the road vs. conference foes. Additionally, Kansas State is an awesome 27-6 ATS in conference games off a loss by 20 or more points. Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have cashed just 42% as road favorites off an upset win since 1980. Take the Wildcats + the points. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over South Alabama. Appy State exploded for 72 points last week, and has covered each of its first three games this season. The Mountaineers are averaging 51.67 points this season, and I love playing on teams that score a lot of points. Indeed, since 1980, NCAA teams have covered the spread 60% in Game 4, if they averaged 50+ points in their first three games, including 71% if they were favored by 25 points or more. And double-digit favorites, after scoring 70+ points in a home win which they covered by 10+ points, have gone 30-11 ATS since 1980. It's true that South Alabama covered a big number at Memphis last week when it was a 31.5-point dog, and only lost by 17. But the Jaguars are a awful 1-12 ATS their last 13 off a point spread win, including 0-8 ATS as an underdog. Take Appalachian State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers upset Louisiana-Lafayette, 30-28, on the road last week, as a 3-point underdog. And they also won and covered at Campbell the previous week. Unfortunately, they now are tasked with playing their third straight road game. And teams off back-to-back SU/ATS road wins, off an upset win, have covered just 37% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game. Lay the points with Troy State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Colorado.  On the surface, the Buffaloes look to be the much stronger team.  After all, the Buffaloes are 3-0, while Chip Kelly's UCLA Bruins are 0-3.  But they've played vastly different schedules, in terms of strength of opponent.  Colorado has played Colorado St, which is 1-4 SU and 1-3 ATS; Nebraska, which is 0-3 SU and ATS; and New Hampshire, which is a division II team, and also 0-3 SU.  In contrast, UCLA has played Cincinnati, which is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS; #6-ranked Oklahoma, which is 4-0; and Fresno St., which is 2-1 SU and ATS.  Thus, Colorado's opponents are a combined 1-10 straight-up, while UCLA's previous foes have a current, combined record of 10-1.  One of my favorite NCAA systems goes against Colorado in this game.  That angle is 73-44 ATS, and goes against certain undefeated teams against foes off an ATS loss.  Take UCLA.  NCAA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over Los Angeles.  The Rams have been the league's best team thus far, but they will be given a stiff test tonight by the Minnesota Vikings.  And the Vikes will no doubt be in an ornery mood after laying an egg last week, at home, vs. the Buffalo Bills.  Indeed, that 21-point loss to Buffalo was the most shocking NFL result in decades, as Minnesota was a 16.5-point favorite.  And no greater NFL favorite had been upset in the last 23 years.  We'll grab the points with Minnesota, as single-digit underdogs have cashed 67.1% in the regular season vs. non-division foes after failing to cover the spread by 26+ points.  Minnesota's also won and covered each of the last five meetings in this series, including a 24-7 blowout last year.  Take the Vikings.  NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over North Carolina.  We played on the Tar Heels last week, and were rewarded with an outright upset win (38-35) by N. Carolina over Pitt.  The Heels now have to travel down to Miami to battle the #16-ranked Hurricanes, who won, 31-17, but failed to cover as a 26-point favorite last week.  That relatively-narrow win by Miami sets up the 'Canes in a 84-37 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that failed to cover by 10+ points their previous game.  Additionally, North Carolina falls into a negative 29-65 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off a win that are playing poor defense (UNC gives up 33.33 ppg).  Finally, in this series, road teams that won their previous game are 0-8 ATS since 2007.  Take Miami-Fla.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Chicago Bears/Arizona Cardinals game.  The Chicago Bears have scored 23 and 24 points in their first two games, while Arizona has given up 24 and 34 in its first two.  Arizona ranks among the bottom 7 teams in defensive efficiency, so I have no doubt the Bears are going to be able to move the ball into the end zone.  Arizona also should bounce back on offense after its shutout loss.  After all, that shutout was against the Rams, who own the league's very best scoring defense, and who were widely projected going into the season to have the #1 defense this year.  And it also was in Arizona's first road game of the year, while this game is at home.  Indeed, since 1980, teams that were shut out in their first road game of the season have rebounded to score, on average, 19.93 points per game, if that next game was at home.  Finally, teams (like Arizona) off back-to-back unders to start the season tend to go 'over' the total in Week 3, including 82-51 since 1980 if the line was less than 40 points, and 26-12 (regardless of the O/U line) the last five seasons.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the LA Rams.  The Rams were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, at 10-1 odds.  And, so far, so good, as they're 2-0, and have the league's #1-ranked scoring defense, and also rank first in overall efficiency and scoring margin.  This week, they'll try to move to 3-0, but will be tasked with a much more difficult opponent than they saw in their first two games.  In Weeks 1 and 2, the Rams faced two below-average teams in the Raiders and Cardinals.  Now, they'll face the Chargers, who are scoring 29.5 points per game, and who rank among the Top 3 in offensive efficiency, and among the Top 10 in overall efficiency.  In this battle between offense and defense, we'll grab the points, as NFL road underdogs (or PK) are 16-0 ATS since 2006, at Game 3 forward, if they score 27.7 points per game, and their foe gives up 15 or less points per game.  Take the Chargers.  NFL Rivalry Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Indianapolis. We played on the Colts last week, and were rewarded with a 21-9 upset win over Washington by Indy. Can Indy make it two upsets in a row? Unfortunately, it's not likely, as road teams off upset wins have only cashed 37% since 1980 against an opponent coming off an upset loss on the road. Moreover, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 43-30, 58.9% ATS off a road upset loss since 1980. With Philly off an upset loss at Tampa Bay last week, we'll lay the points with the Eagles on Sunday. NFL Roadkill Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Atlanta. The Saints enter this game with a 1-1 record, but have yet to cover the point spread. However, they are an underdog here, compared to being a double-digit favorite in each of their first two games. We'll take New Orleans + the points, as underdogs (or PK) have cashed 73% over the past 38 years off back to back ATS losses as double-digit favorites. Additionally, New Orleans falls into 41-21 and 97-49 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off ATS losses. Finally, New Orleans is 38-27 ATS as an underdog, while Atlanta is a money-burning 19-31 ATS as a favorite. Take the Saints. NFL Division Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Air Force. The Falcons have won the last three meetings in this series, but I love Utah State to get revenge on Saturday night. Utah State is 3-0 ATS this season, and comes into this game off back to back blowout wins, in which Utah State scored 60 and 73 points! For the season, Utah State has scored a whopping 164 points (54.67 ppg). I love offensive-minded College teams, and it's been very profitable to play on favorites of -30 points or less that scored 150+ points over their previous three games. Indeed, since 1990, they've cashed 67.1% at home in the regular season when not favored by more than 30 points if they were playing a non-winning opponent. Even better: if our team was also playing with revenge, then our system moves to 77% ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS its last seven. Take the Aggies. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Army. The Black Knights are 2-1 this season after winning back-to-back home games over Liberty and Hawaii. Now, they'll hit the road to play the #5-ranked Oklahoma Sooners, who are 3-0 this season. Army has had its troubles on the road over the last eight years. This season, it was blown out by the Duke Blue Devils, 34-14. And Army is 8-31 straight-up, and 13-25-1 ATS its last 39 on the road. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 10-2 ATS their last 12 at home. And they fall into 49-15, 64-27 and 55-18 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off wins. Take Oklahoma minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over LSU. Last week, the Tigers shocked Auburn as a double-digit underdog, and won 22-21. But off that big upset win, we will fade LSU as a big favorite vs. Louisiana Tech (which is also undefeated this season). Indeed, home teams have cashed just 28% in the regular season since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off a win, if our home team won outright as a double-digit road dog their previous game! Take Louisiana Tech. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State. The Wildcats are 3-0 this season, including an impressive 27-16 victory at Florida, which snapped a 31-game losing streak to the Gators. Now, the Wildcats will attempt to move to 2-0 in SEC Conference play by avenging a 38-point loss to the Bulldogs last season. They've been installed as a double-digit home underdog. And we'll grab the points, as double-digit home underdogs off a win, with a .666 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 57% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a conference opponent. Take Kentucky. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Texas A&M. The Tide have run roughshod over their first three opponents, with wins by 37 (Louisville), 50 (Arkansas State) and 55 (Mississippi) points. And with those blowouts, the Tide has covered the point spread by an average of 20.5 points per game. I look for Alabama to make it four in a row on Saturday, as NCAA Football teams off 3 SU/ATS wins, that scored 50+ points in each of those three games, have cashed 65.7% in the regular season since 1980. Lay the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Virginia. The Cardinals come into this game off three straight ATS losses, while Virginia comes in off three straight ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Cavaliers, but winless ATS teams (at Game 4 forward) actually cover the spread more often than not! And Louisville falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winless ATS teams. Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino will start redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham this week after the young QB was impressive as a back-up in Louisville's last two games (both wins). The Cards have scored on eight of Cunningham's 12 drives, and has been the most effective rusher (183 yards on 33 carries) this season. In contrast, the erstwhile starter, Jawon Pass, did not lead a drive that ended in points in either of the last two games. This will no doubt be a positive move for Louisville's offense, which has averaged just 5.02 yards per play this season. Take the Cardinals on Saturday.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Pittsburgh. UNC has dominated this series since Pittsburgh joined the ACC Conference, with five straight wins since 2013 (4-1 ATS). I look for that dominance to continue today, as Pitt falls into a negative 6-24 ATS system of mine following its upset win over Georgia Tech last week. Additionally, the Tar Heels fall into 75-20 and 90-32 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams in conference games off losses. Finally, Pitt's cashed just 25% as conference road favorites over the past 38 years off an upset win, while North Carolina is 10-1 ATS as home/neutral field underdogs vs. foes off an upset win the previous week. Take North Carolina.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Georgia.  The Tigers have rolled to an impressive 3-0 record to start the season, and have scored 40+ points in each of their three victories.  Now, they'll face the #3-ranked Bulldogs, who are also 3-0 this season.  These two teams met last season, and Missouri lost, 53-28, in Athens.  But that was the last time the Tigers lost a regular season game.  Since then, they've reeled off nine straight wins.  Don't be surprised if Mizzou pulls off the shocker in Columbia on Saturday afternoon, as NCAA Football teams have cashed 67.05% since 1980 off three straight games where they scored more than 38 points, if they were not playing on the road, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  And if our team was also playing with revenge against a conference foe, then our 67% system zooms to 78%.  Take Missouri + the points.  SEC Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Akron. The Cyclones are 0-2 this year following double-digit losses to Iowa and Oklahoma. But ISU was an underdog in each of those two games; they're going 'down in class,' and favored by double-digits here. Since 1980, Game 3 favorites off back to back losses as underdogs, have covered 80% vs. foes off back to back wins! And that's the situation here, as Akron comes in off wins over Morgan State and Northwestern. Even worse for the Zips: they were a 21-point underdog last week, but won, 39-34. However, teams off back to back wins are an awful 19-41 ATS if they won outright as an 18-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game. Take Iowa State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Ohio. Last week, the Bearcats drilled Alabama A&M, 63-7, and moved to 3-0 on the season. And it was also the second straight game the Bearcats didn't give up 10 points to their opponent. For the season, Cincy's defense is giving up just eight points per game. And College Football single-digit home favorites (or PK) have cashed 61.5% over the last 38 seasons after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous game. And our angle zooms to 89% ATS if our team also owns a defense that surrenders 8 points or less per game! Lay the points with the Bearcats. NCAA Football High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Central Florida.  The Owls have won their last two games on the scoreboard, but are 0-3 "in Vegas," as they've yet to cover the point spread in the season's first three weeks.  They'll try to finally cash a ticket on Friday night when they travel to Orlando to play Central Florida, which had last weekend off after its 38-0 win vs. South Carolina State.  And that was the 15th straight win for the Knights, dating back to last season.  However, when teams (like Florida Atlantic) start the season 0-3 ATS (or worse), I'll definitely start to look to play on them (for reasons of "point spread value") if certain, other factors are present.  Here, Florida Atlantic falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .500 (or better) teams that have failed to cover any of their games.  That doesn't bode well for the Knights on Friday.  And neither does the fact that Central Florida has not fared well over the years vs. other Florida universities, as it's gone 7-12 ATS, including 2-10 ATS vs. foes off a win.  Take Florida Atlantic + the points.  NCAA ELITE INFO. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Seattle/Chicago game.  The Seahawks and Bears both lost their openers last week.  Chicago fell, 24-23, to Green Bay, while Seattle lost at Denver, 27-24.  Certainly, NFL teams are especially desperate in Week 2 coming off a loss in Week 1, as an 0-2 start to a season is a huge hole out of which to dig, should one aspire to make the Playoffs.  So, it's not surprising that match-ups between 0-1 teams have tilted toward the 'under' 57% of the time since 1980 (and 63% if both teams also happened to go 'over' in Week 1).  Likewise, Monday Night Football match-ups have also gone 'under' 65.2% since 1980 if both combatants are off a loss, and each went 'over' the total in their previous game.  Finally, Chicago's played 19 of its last 30 home games 'under' the total, while Seattle's gone 'under' in seven of its last eight road games off a loss.  Take the 'under.'  MNF Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars over New England.  The Jaguars' success last season was largely a result of its 2nd-ranked defense, as it gave up just 268 points in the regular season.  Jacksonville got this year off to a similar start, as it gave up just 15 points in last week's victory over the New York Giants.  This week, the Jags will open their home schedule, and take on Bill Belichick's Patriots, who won against Houston in Week 1. This is a great situation to take Jacksonville, as .500 (or better) home teams with defenses that give up less than 20 ppg, have gone 117-80 ATS since 1980 if they were an underdog (or PK) vs. a non-division foe off a win.  Moreover, these two teams met in last year's Playoffs in Foxboro, and the Patriots won, 24-20, but didn't cover the 7-point spread.  Thus, the Jags will be looking to avenge that defeat on Sunday.  Jacksonville is a super 11-3 ATS its last 14 when not laying more than three points, while New England is a poor 3-10-1 ATS off a win, if it was favored on the road vs. a team with a better defense.  Take Jacksonville. NFL Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over San Francisco.  The Lions were thoroughly embarassed on National TV last Monday Night, when they lost, 48-17, at home to the New York Jets.  However, underdogs generally bounce back after an awful Monday Night Football performance.  Indeed, since 1981, underdogs (or PK) that failed to cover the spread by more than 20 points in a Monday Night game have gone 70.5% ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Los Angeles.  The Chargers blew out the Bills last season, 54-24, as a 7-point favorite.  Couple that with the fact that Buffalo lost, 47-3, at Baltimore last Sunday, and it's easy to see why some might be attracted to the road team, here.  But we are going to run the other way with the Bills, as they fall into 144-66 and 52-13 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off losses.  Also, the Bills were 9-7 last year.  And home teams that were a winning team the previous season, and playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat from a loss that season to their current opponent, have cashed 65.4% since November 1983.  Take the home underdog Bills.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Washington.  Last week, the Redskins opened their 2018 campaign with an upset win at Arizona.  Washington was a 2.5-point underdog in that game, but walloped the Cardinals, 24-6.  Meanwhile, Indy fell at home, 34-23, to the Cincinnati Bengals.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Redskins off their impressive performance last week.  But be careful, as home favorites off an upset road win to open their season have generally stumbled when matched up against foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Since 1980, they've covered just 34.4% of the time.  That doesn't bode well for Washington this afternoon.  And nor does the fact that Washington has covered just 30 of 101 home games vs. non-winning opposition, if Washington wasn't getting 2 points in the game.  Finally, Indianapolis is 33-13 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 14-2 when the Colts are getting 4+ points.  Take Indy. NFL Underdog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Chiefs went into Los Angeles, and upset the Chargers, 38-28.  Meanwhile, the Steelers stumbled in their opening game -- also against a division foe -- as Pittsburgh tied Cleveland, 21-21, which certainly felt like a loss, as Cleveland was 0-16 last season.  I'm going to go against KC on the road, as AFC West teams have cashed just 34.6% the past 38 years off an upset division win, if they're playing a non-division foe on the road.  Also, these two teams have met three times in the past two seasons, and the Steelers have won all three games, both straight-up and ATS.   Finally, Pittsburgh is 21-6 ATS at home off a division game where it was favored, but did not win.  Take the Steelers.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes didn't need their suspended head coach, Urban Meyer, in their first two games.  But they may come to rue the fact he wasn't available for this game, as TCU could very well pull the outright upset.  Of course, we don't need TCU to win outright -- we just need it to cover this bloated, double-digit point spread.  And I think it will, as TCU enters off a 30-point win (42-12) at SMU last Friday.  And that followed up another impressive effort in Week 1, when TCU shut down Southern University, 55-7.  Thus, TCU's given up just 9.5 ppg, on defense.  And that bodes well for them, here, as College Football underdogs of more than three points, are 68-38 ATS if they give up 9.5 ppg (or less).  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Alabama.  This is a big revenge game for Mississippi, which lost by 63 points to 'Bama last season.  And that was the worst defeat by Ole Miss in the 123-year history of this series.  Alabama, the defending National Champion, is now 2-0 SU/ATS this season, with blowout wins over Louisville and Arkansas State.  But off those two wins, we'll fade the Crimson Tide, as defending National Champs are an awful 31.8% ATS away from home over the past 38 seasons off back to back SU/ATS wins!  Even better:  Ole Miss is 33-18 ATS as a revenge-minded underdog in SEC Conference games, if Ole Miss was off a win.  Take Mississippi + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars are 0-2 on the season, and a horrid 0-10 ATS their last 10 Sun Belt games as favorites of -4+ points, yet have been installed as a big favorite over Sun Belt conference rival, Texas State.  That doesn't bode well for South Alabama this evening.  And neither does the fact that Sun Belt home favorites of -7 (or more) points are a dreadful 70-102 ATS.  Finally, the Jaguars fall into negative 31-80 and 29-104 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Bobcats + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  Both Buffalo and EMU come into this Mid-American Conference opener with 2-0 records.  And each also comes into this game off upset wins:  Eastern Michigan stunned Purdue, 20-19, as a 15-point underdog last week, while Buffalo pulled off a milder upset, with a 36-29 victory at Temple, as a 4-point dog.  We'll go against the Eagles on this Saturday evening, as teams off upset wins by less than 10 points, as double-digit dogs, have gone just 77-137 ATS as dogs in the regular season vs. foes off a straight-up win.  Additionally, the Bulls are 21-11 ATS their last 32 games at home, including 7-0 ATS their last seven when they lost the previous meeting to their opponent.  And the Eagles are an awful 0-11 straight-up and 1-10 ATS off a win vs. Mid-American Conference foes also off a win.  Take Buffalo.  MAC Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Colorado State.  Last week, the Gators were upset at home, 27-16, as a 13.5-point favorite by the Kentucky Wildcats.  Meanwhile, the Rams pulled their own upset last week, 34-27, as a 14-point underdog over Arkansas.  Can Colorado State make it two upsets in a row over an SEC Conference foe?  Not likely, as underdogs of +12 or more points, off an upset win as an underdog of +12 points or more, have cashed just 19.1% over the past 38 years vs. foes off an upset loss.  Yikes!  Moreover, the Gators are a solid 21-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes in the regular season when priced from -3.5 to -23 points, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when the Gators were off a point spread defeat. NCAA Game of the Week.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over BYU.  Last week, we had our College Football Game of the Month on California against BYU, as we faded the Cougars off their upset win over Arizona as a double-digit underdog.  And it was an easy win for us, as California's defense completely shut down BYU in a 21-18 victory which wasn't as close as the final score indicated.  Indeed, BYU's only offensive touchdown of the game came with under a minute to play, as its first touchdown came off an interception return, so California held BYU's offense out of the end zone for the first 59 minutes of the game.  Now BYU will have to travel to Madison to take on the 2-0 Badgers.  These two teams met last season in Utah, and the Cougars couldn't find the end zone for that game, either, as they lost 40-6, and were held to 192 yards of offense, though it's true that BYU QB Tanner Mangum wasn't available for that game.  It's also true that Wisconsin has lost both of its games against the spread.  But undefeated teams off back to back ATS losses that are also winless against the spread for the season, have covered 59.2% as favorites over the past 38 years.  I like Wisconsin here.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Boise State.  This is a great match-up of two Top 25-ranked teams.  Okie State is led by senior QB Taylor Cornelius, who has masterfully directed the Cowboys' up-tempo offense in their first two games.  Cornelius has passed for 728 yards, with six touchdown passes.  Last week, Oklahoma State rolled up 55 points vs. an outmatched South Alabama squad.  And Okie State is 36-11 ATS off a win, in which it scored 50+ points.  Meanwhile, Boise's covered just 17 of 46 road games vs. foes off a win, if Boise wasn't getting 3.5 (or more) points.  And the Broncos have also just covered 36% on the road vs. foes that scored 42+ in their previous game.  Take Oklahoma St.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Last week, we played against Ga Tech, and got the $$$ when South Florida came back from a double-digit, 4th quarter deficit to upset the Jackets, 49-38.  If there was a silver lining for Paul Johnson's squad, it was that it out-gained South Florida on offense, 602 yards to 426.  Unfortunately, they coughed up 2 interceptions and 1 fumble (while only forcing 1 turnover on defense).  And they allowed 2 kick returns to go for touchdowns.  Johnson stated in his press conference that personnel changes (e.g., using more veterans) would be made to shore up his kick return defense, so that should help.  It's also worth noting that Georgia Tech is 5-0 ATS the last couple of years after a game where it had a negative 2 (or worse) turnover differential.  Last season, Georgia Tech blew out Pitt, 35-17, and out-yarded the Panthers 484 to 235.  This will be a similar beatdown.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Florida State.  The Orange are 2-0 SU and ATS after smashing Western Michigan and Wagner the last two weekends.  In contrast, Florida State has gotten out of the gate slowly, with an upset loss to ACC Conference foe Virginia Tech on Labor Day, followed by an unimpressive 36-26 win last week, at home, vs. Samford.  The Seminoles have not covered an ACC Conference game in their last nine, which certainly doesn't bode well for them, here.  And neither does the fact that the Orange have piled up 117 points in their first two games, as home dogs of more than 2 points, with a scoring average greater than 29.5 points, are 229-152-4 ATS!  Take Syracuse.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Both of these teams finished last season with winning records.  But KC (10-6) earned a trip to the Playoffs, while the Chargers (9-7) barely missed out.  And the fact that Los Angeles lost both regular season games to the Chiefs is the main reason which KC was able to edge out the Chargers for that post-season berth.  I love the Chargers to avenge those two losses, as home favorites of less than 7 points (or PK) have cashed 75.5% ATS when playing with double revenge from two losses to a division rival the previous season, if our home team also had a winning record in that previous season.  Take the Chargers.  NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over BYU.  Last Saturday, the Cougars went into Arizona and upset the Wildcats, 28-23, as an 11.5-point underdog.  BYU now returns home to take on another Pac-12 Conference team in the California Golden Bears, who also won last week -- by 7 -- at home vs. North Carolina.  I look for BYU to have a major letdown on Saturday night, as favorites of less than 16 points have covered just 20.6 percent of the time since 1980 off an upset win (as a dog of +6 or more points) in their season opener.  Additionally, Pac-12 Conference underdogs of +11 (or less) points are a solid 162-115, 58.4% ATS since 1980 in non-conference games, including 67-38 ATS vs. foes off an ATS win.  Take California + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks over the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Last week, the Bearcats went into the Rose Bowl, and upset UCLA, 26-17, as a 14-point underdog.  Now, they'll come back to the Queen City to play their rival, Miami-Ohio, at Paul Brown Stadium.  This is the most-played, currently active rivalry between non-conference teams, as this will be the 123rd meeting.  Miami leads the series 59-56-7, but Cincinnati has won the last 12 games in a row.  I look for Miami to snap this long losing streak, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 74.1% since 1982 vs. non-conference foes off an upset win as a 2-touchdown underdog!  Moreover, Cincy has covered just 25 of 63 off a road win, while Miami-Ohio has gone 21-10 ATS off a SU/ATS home loss.  Take the Red Hawks.  NCAA Rivalry Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over TCU.  Last week, in its home opener, TCU smashed Southern U., 55-7, while SMU lost at North Texas, 46-23.  This Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex rivalry has been owned by the Horned Frogs for the last six years, including a 56-36 victory last season.  But even though the Mustangs haven't won outright since 2011, they've covered the point spread for three of the last six seasons (and 10 of the last 15 meetings).  As with many heated rivalries, the underdog has brought home the bacon in this series, as the dog has gone 22-12-1 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for TCU:  double-digit Road Favorites, off a home win in their season opener the previous week, have cashed just 26% since 1980 against revenge-minded foes off a loss!  Finally, SMU falls into a 126-68 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams playing with revenge from a blowout loss by more than 15 points.  Take the Mustangs.  Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Vanderbilt.  This will be the final season that Middle Tennessee coach Rick Stockstill will have his son, Brent Stockstill, as the team's starting QB.  And his son is one of 16 returning starters (eight offensive; eight defensive) for the Blue Raiders (in contrast, Vandy returns just 12 starters).  Stockstill's accomplished a lot in his MTSU career as the QB, including setting school records for touchdowns (77), passing yards per game (288.7) and completions (729).  However, one thing he's never done is defeat Vanderbilt.  Last season, the Commodores blew out Middle Tennessee, 28-6, as a 2.5-point favorite.  And they also defeated the Blue Raiders, 47-24, two seasons ago, and 17-13 the year before that.  We'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee in a revenge role on Saturday night, as they fall into a 54-23 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take Middle Tennessee.  NCAA Football Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines over Notre Dame.  When these two midwest rivals last met, the Fighting Irish whitewashed Michigan, 31-0.  I look for Michigan to avenge that defeat, as teams that were shutout in their previous meeting have gone 128-93-6 ATS if they weren't an underdog of 4+ points in the current game.  Moreover, in a season's opening game for both teams, it's been extremely profitable to play on teams that were shutout in the previous meeting, as they've gone 61.6% ATS the past 38 seasons, including a perfect 8-0 ATS since 2012.  Finally, the team that lost the previous meeting in this series has gone 20-7 ATS since 1981, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from PK to +7.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over SMU.  Last year, the Mean Green lost by 22 points to their Dallas Metroplex rival, SMU.  And that was the 3rd straight loss suffered by North Texas to SMU over the last three seasons.  But SMU was favored in each of those games.  And the favorite has actually won and covered four straight in this series.  This season, the Mean Green have been installed as the favorite, and North Texas has cashed 64.7% the past seven years as a home favorite (and 60% the past 18 years).  Additionally, SMU has been very poor as a road underdog or 10 points or less (or PK), as it's covered just 9 of 42 games since 1994, including 0-12 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Finally, North Texas falls into a 34-12 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with double-revenge.  Take the Mean Green.  Perfect 10 Club play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers over Washington.  It's easy to forget just how good the Auburn Tigers were last season, given how they finished (with two straight losses).  But at the end of the last year's regular season, the Tigers were ranked 2nd in the nation, and owned wins over both Alabama (26-14) and Georgia (40-17) -- the two teams that eventually competed in the Championship Game.  Unfortunately for Auburn, it had to defeat Georgia a second time in the SEC Championship game, but fell to the Bulldogs, 28-7.  And it, not surprisingly, had a letdown in the Peach Bowl and lost to Central Florida, 34-27.  But it's a new season, and the Tigers enter it ranked 9th in the AP's Poll, and 10th in the Coaches' Poll.  On Saturday afternoon, they'll play the 6th-ranked Washington Huskies at a neutral (but SEC friendly) site -- Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium.  The SEC has long been the best football conference in the country, while the Pac-12 Conference hasn't won a National Championship in 14 seasons (the longest, current stretch of failure among the Power 5 Conferences).  With that as a backdrop, it's awfully tough to go against a great SEC team at this price.  Indeed, since 1981, SEC teams that had a win percentage of .700 (or better) the previous season, have gone 46-12 straight-up and 39-18-1 ATS in their opening game, if against a non-conference foe, and priced from +3.5 to -21 points (and 16-5 ATS if their opponent also had a win percentage the previous year of .700+).  Take Auburn.  NCAA Elite Info Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over New England.  The Eagles upset the Vikings as 3-point home underdogs.  And it wasn't even close, as the Eagles won by 31 points (38-7).  Meanwhile, the Patriots failed to cover vs. Jacksonville, as they won by just four (24-20), as a 7.5-point favorite.  That doesn't bode well for New England in the Super Bowl, as teams off a point spread defeat in the Conference Championship round have covered just 25% in Super Bowls since 1980.  Moreover, it's tough to play away from home in the post-season, and lay points to a team -- like Philadelphia -- with the better defense (the Eagles' defense rates 1.0 ppg better than the Patriots' defense).  Indeed, Playoff teams that owned the better defense have covered 73% in this situation over the last 38 years (and 85% if they were getting 3+ points).  Finally, teams (like Philadelphia) off back to back wins in which they weren't favored by 3+ points in either of those victories, have gone 8-0-1 ATS in Super Bowls since 1998.  Take Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles to go OVER the total.  The Over falls into several of my best Totals systems, with records of 49-15, 90-62 and 98-58 since 1980.  Also, over the past six Playoff seasons, Bill Belichick's Patriots have gone 'over' the total 9-4-1, including a perfect 5-0 'over' if New England didn't go 'over' in its previous game.  Meanwhile, the Eagles have gone 'over' the total in 16 of their last 20 games away from home, including 10-0 'over' if the Eagles were an underdog of +6 points or less.  Finally, the Patriots have generally gone 'over' the total when Belichick has had two weeks to prepare, as they've gone 'over' 12-2 the past six seasons in this situation, including 6-0 'over' the past three seasons.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Philadelphia/Minnesota game.  The Eagles have played three extremely low-scoring games in a row.  Last week, they defeated Atlanta, 15-10.  Prior to that, they were shut out by Dallas, 6-0, and won 19-10 vs. Oakland.  Those three games went 'under' their respective totals by 15, 35 and 17 points.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 'under' in this game, but the Over falls into a 65.3% Totals system of mine which plays on certain teams off Unders to reverse course and play a high-scoring game.  Also, the Eagles have gone 'Over' 81% since 1999 off 3 or more Unders, while Playoff favorites (like Minnesota) off a high-scoring playoff game in which more than 51 points were scored, have gone 'Over' the total 64% since 1997.  Take the Over.  NFL Total of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New England/Jacksonville game.  We played on the Over last week in both the New England/Tennessee game, and the Jacksonville/Pittsburgh game, and got the cash in each.  And we'll come right back with the Over for this game.  The Patriots have now gone 8-0-1 Over in their last nine Playoff games at home or on a neutral field!  And the Jaguars are currently riding a 4-2 Over streak.  Also, since 1988, NFL Playoff teams have gone 'Over' the total 70% of the time after scoring 44+ points in their previous playoff game (and 79% if the Over/Under line was 45+ points).  Take the 'Over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, we played on both Jacksonville and New England, and easily got the $$$ with both.  As I mentioned last week, in our analysis of the Tennessee/New England game, in the NFL Playoffs, road underdogs of +3.5 or more points are awful off an upset win (now 39-80-1 ATS).  That same angle applies to Jacksonville, here, off its upset win at Pittsburgh.  Moreover, the Jaguars fall into a negative 2-23 ATS Playoff system of mine, as well as a 33-88 ATS angle.  Finally, favorites priced from -2.5 to -9.5 are 37-19 ATS in the Conference Championship round since 1984.  Take the Patriots.  Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the 'over' in the Minnesota/New Orleans game, as it falls into 46-19, 47-15 and 96-57 Totals systems of mine.  The Saints are averaging over 28 points per game this season.  And in the NFL playoffs, teams that average more than 27.45 ppg have gone 'Over' the total 62.26% of the time when the over/under line is more than 43 points.  Additionally, New Orleans is 9-2 'Over' its last 11 when the line was between 42 and 49 points.  And Playoff games where at least one team is rested have gone 'over' the total 57% since 1980.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Jaguars come into today's game off three straight point spread defeats.  That will keep many bettors off Jacksonville.  But not me.  Indeed, since 1984, NFL Playoff teams have cashed 15 of 19 if they were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, provided they were not favored by 3 or more points.  And if their opponent was off back to back wins, then our system zooms to 11-1 ATS.  Jacksonville also falls into 30-1 and 82-22 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Jags + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the 'Over' in the Pittsburgh/Jacksonville game.  In the Jaguars' last game, they managed to score just 10 points, in a 10-3 win.  That game's combined point total of 13 points will keep many bettors off the 'Over' here, but that knee-jerk reaction will more than likely be the wrong move.  Indeed, NFL games have gone 'Over' in 46 of 70 games, with Over/Under lines less than 43 points, if one of the teams played a game the previous week which didn't total 14+ points.  Moreover, the Steelers are 26-8 'Over' the total in the Playoffs when the line was less than 47 points, including 13-0 'Over' since Jan. 11, 1998 when they played at home, or on a neutral field.  And the Jags have gone 'Over' the total 44 of 71 when the Over/Under line was 44 or less, and the Jags went 'Under' the total in their previous game.  Finally, the Over falls into a 51-24 Playoff Totals system of mine.  Take the 'Over.'  NFL Elite Info Totals Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'Over' in the New England/Tennessee game.  The Patriots have played 15 home playoff games over the last 11 seasons.  And just three of those 15 games have gone 'Under' the total!  That bodes well for this being a high-scoring game.  Additionally, the 'Over' falls into a 61-29 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'Over.'  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Tennessee.  Last week, the Titans came back from an 18-point deficit to stun the Kansas City Chiefs, 22-21, as an 8.5-point underdog.  Unfortunately, since 1982, in the NFL Playoffs, road underdogs of +3.5 or more points are an awful 39-77-1 ATS off an upset win.  That doesn’t bode well for the Titans on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that the Patriots are 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 ATS at home in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs the past six seasons.  Finally, over the past 26 years, NFL double digit road underdogs, with a win percentage less than .700, have covered just 4 of 24 Playoff games, including 0-7 ATS the past seven seasons.  Take New England.

At 4:35 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Atlanta.  The Eagles are the #1 seed in the NFC, but stumbled into the playoffs with three straight ATS defeats to end the season, including a 6-0 shutout loss in their final game.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Philly.  But NFL teams have gone 10-0 ATS in their initial playoff game, if they lost against the point spread in their last three regular season games; they weren't favored by 3+ points; and their foe was NOT off back to back ATS losses.  Additionally, the Eagles fall into 76-16, 29-1 and 81-22 ATS systems of mine.  Finally, home underdogs are a solid 24-13 ATS in the Playoffs, while home teams are 12-1 ATS off shutout home losses, when matched up against foes off SU/ATS wins.  Take Philly + the points.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'Over' in the Atlanta/Philadelphia game.  The Falcons have gone 'Under' in six straight games.  But this should be a relatively high-scoring game, as NFL teams have gone 'Over' in 141 of 250 games off 5+ 'Unders' when the line was 42 or less points.  Take the 'Over.'

At 8:45 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Georgia.  Back in late November, I recommended a futures wager on the Crimson Tide +425 to win the National Championship, as I thought it was the best team in the country, and I had no doubt it would be eventually selected for the Playoffs ahead of the team which would win the Ohio State/Wisconsin game.  The Crimson Tide easily blew out the team (Clemson) which ranked #2 in my power ratings, and now they'll face a very solid Georgia ballclub.  But, as I wrote in my analysis last week for the 'Bama/Clemson game, Nick Saban (along with Urban Meyer) is one of the two best coaches in College Football.  And he excels in competitively-priced games, with point spreads less than five points.  In that situation, he's a fantastic 36-17 SU/ATS, including a PERFECT 8-0 SU/ATS in the Post-Season!  That bodes well for the Crimson Tide in this Championship game.  As does the fact that the Tide has won the last three meetings vs. the Bulldogs, by an average of 14.33 ppg.  Finally, the Tide has the best scoring defense in the country, as it gives up just 11 ppg.  And, since 1989, favorites of -10 or less points have cashed 64.5% in the Bowls (including a perfect 4-0 this season) if they don't give up more than 19 ppg, and their defense is at least 4.5 points better than their opponent's defense.  Take Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Atlanta.  It's true that the Rams have not made the Playoffs in 13 years, while the Falcons reached the Super Bowl last season.  But I believe Playoff "experience" is vastly over-rated.  Instead, I prefer to back the much better team.  And that's surely the Los Angeles Rams.  LA had a better W/L record (11-5), a better ATS win percentage (.562), a better scoring margin (+6.93), and a better point spread differential (+8.90).  The most significant difference was on the offensive side of the ball, as LA scored 29.8 ppg, while Atlanta managed to score just 22.0 ppg.  And NFL home teams have cashed 63% in the Playoffs over the last 34 years if they weren't favored by 8+ points, and they averaged at least 27.3 ppg.  Moreover, notwithstanding its post-season success last year, Atlanta's still a money-burning 6-14 ATS in the Playoffs its last 20, including 1-9 ATS off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Rams.  NFL High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Tennessee.  The Chiefs' roller-coaster season was bookended with 5 SU/ATS wins at the front, and 4 SU/ATS wins at the end (with a 1-6 SU/ATS stretch in the middle).  I look for them to annihilate the Titans, as Tennessee enters the Playoffs with the 2nd-worst scoring defense of all the Playoff teams.  And Playoff road underdogs of 7+ points, that give up 21.75 (or more) points per game, have covered just 25 percent since 1984!  Even worse:  the Titans defeated Jacksonville, 15-10, last week at home.  But the Titans are an awful 1-15 ATS off a home win by more than three points!  Take Kansas City.  NFL Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, on New Year's Day, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Clemson.  Nick Saban (along with Urban Meyer) is one of the two best coaches in College Football.  And he excels in competitively-priced games, with point spreads less than five points.  In that situation, he's a fantastic 35-17 SU/ATS, including a PERFECT 7-0 SU/ATS in the Post-Season!  I won't fade those numbers.  Moreover, Alabama is 58-26 ATS since 1984 when playing away from home off a point spread defeat.  And teams off upset losses to end their season have cashed 62% in bowl games when not laying 3.5+ points.  Finally, defending National Champions (like Clemson) are an awful 9-26-1 ATS off a SU/ATS win when not laying more than 10 points, including 0-7-1 ATS as an underdog. Take Alabama.  BOWL FAVORITE OF THE YEAR!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Rams and 49ers to go 'under' the total.  These two teams met earlier this season in San Francisco, and the Rams came away with a 41-39 victory.  I look for a much lower scoring game on Sunday, as rematches of games where each team scored 28+ points have gone 'under' the total 61.4% since 1980 when the line was greater than 41 points.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami Fla Hurricanes + the points over Wisconsin.  The Hurricanes stumbled down the stretch with back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Clemson end their season.  But I love Miami to rebound here, as Bowl teams off back to back SU/ATS losses have cashed 61% since 1980 when not favored by 3+ points.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Iowa State.  The Tigers ended their season with a loss at Central Florida in the American Athletic Conf. Championship game, while ISU fell by a point, at Kansas State.  But even though Memphis lost in the American Athletic Conf. Title game, just playing in that sort of atmosphere generally is of great benefit to teams in the Bowl games.  Indeed, if one plays on a Bowl team which made its Conference Championship game, one would have cashed 55% in the Bowls, including 62% if our team wasn't favored by more than 4 points.  That bodes well for the Tigers this afternoon.  As does the fact that the Tigers will be playing at home, in the Liberty Bowl.  And home teams off losses have cashed 63.1% in Bowl games since 1980.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Louisville.  The Cardinals and Bulldogs both finished the season with solid 8-4 records, though Miss State owned the better ATS mark (7-5 ATS compared to Louisville's 5-7 ATS).  The Bulldogs, though, were upset in their last game, 31-28, by Ole Miss, while Louisville blew out Kentucky, 44-17.  Unfortunately for Louisville, teams off SU/ATS wins have been dreadful away from home in Bowl games vs. foes off upset losses, when favored by 3+ points, as they've cashed just 20.5% over the last 37 years.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Northwestern.  Kentucky was 7-5 on the season, but finished its regular season with back-to-back losses, at Georgia, and at home vs. Louisville.  However, those two opponents were superior to Kentucky, which as installed as a double-digit underdog in each game, so there was no great shame in losing each of them.  In contrast, Northwestern ended its regular season with two dominant defensive performances:  a 39-0 shutout of the Golden Gophers, and a 42-7 blowout of Illinois, and finished the season with a 9-3 record.  But it must be noted that neither of Northwestern's last two opponents was very good this season.  Illinois was 2-10, and finished the year on an 10-game losing streak (and averaged just 13.1 ppg over its last nine games).  Minnesota was better than Illinois, but it still only won five of its 12 games (and only won two of its nine Big 10 Conference games).  It also ended the season with back-to-back shutout losses, and scored 10 points or less in four of its final five games.  So, all of this puts Northwestern's last two defensive games in a better perspective.  We'll fade Northwestern, as .900 (or worse) Bowl teams have gone 0-15 ATS over the last 21 years if they didn't give up 13+ points in each of their two previous games, and they were not playing an opponent with a better record.  Also, underdogs off back to back losses have covered 69% in the Bowls over the last 38 years vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Kentucky.  NCAA FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars + the points over Michigan State.  Wazzu has been installed as the underdog in this match-up vs. the Spartans.  But we'll grab the points, as rested Pac-12 Conference teams have gone 21-0 ATS since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off a win, if our Pac-12 team owned a W/L percentage of .600 (or better).  Take Washington State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Naval Academy over Virginia.  There are two things that I try to not do when betting the Bowl games.  One is to go against a Service Academy.  As I mentioned last weekend in my write-up for my NCAA Game of the Week Winner on Army, the Service Academies have excelled in the Bowls.  They're now 32-14 ATS (following Army's win) since 1980.  And the other thing I will rarely do in Bowl games is go against a team playing at home.  This game, of course, is being played in Annapolis, at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.  And that's a big disadvantage for Virginia, which is 7-27 ATS on the road when priced from +1 to -11 points vs. .375 (or better) foes.  Take Navy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Boston College.  The Iowa Hawkeyes' senior class has lost Bowl games each of the past three seasons, so I expect the Hawkeyes to be extremely motivated this afternoon to break their losing streak in the Bowls.  Iowa falls into 135-84, 36-25 and 89-38 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Hawkeyes. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Duke.  The Huskies were upset, 31-24, as a 2.5-point favorite in their final regular season game by Central Michigan.  Meanwhile, Duke stunned Wake Forest, 31-23, as a 10.5-point underdog to end its regular season.  Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, teams have covered just 34.7% in the Bowls since 1980 off an upset win, if they covered by more than 10 points in that upset, and they're now matched up against an opponent off an upset loss.  Additionally, the Huskies are 7-0 ATS since 2012 vs. foes off an upset win.  Take the Huskies + the points.

At 4:30 pm, on Christmas Day, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Texans were walloped by Jacksonville last week, 45-7.  And that was Houston’s fourth straight loss.  But this is a perfect spot to take Houston to bounce back, and I think they’ll easily cover vs. the Steelers.  Last week, Pittsburgh suffered, perhaps, the most brutal loss of the entire season, as they seemingly scored the game winning touchdown vs. New England, but had it overturned on a technicality by the replay officials.  I’ve always found that close losses are more difficult to bounce back from than blowout losses, and the way the Steelers lost will surely affect them emotionally.  The other big factor here is that Houston is at home, and getting points, while the Steelers are laying points on the road.  And home underdogs generally bounce back off blowout losses.  Indeed, for technical support, consider that NFL home underdogs of +4 or more points, off a loss by 28 or more points, are 20-1 ATS their last 21 vs. opponents also off a loss.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars over the Fresno State Bulldogs.  The Bulldogs have had no success in the Bowl games over the past nine years.  They've played in six Bowl games and are a horrid 0-6 SU/ATS.  And they've lost by an average of 19.5 ppg!  Even worse:  since 1980, Fresno State has made 16 bowl games, but it is 0-8 ATS in the Bowls when it wasn't getting 3+ points.  We'll take Houston tonight, as it falls into several of my favorite systems, with records of 112-56, 53-17 and 89-37 ATS.  Take the Cougars.  NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Arizona.  We played on the Giants last week, and got the $$$, even though New York lost outright, 34-29, to the Eagles (but covered as a 7-point underdog).  The Giants have dropped their last four games, straight-up, and are 2-12 on the season.  But I love them to pull the outright upset this afternoon vs. the 6-8 Cardinals, as they fall into a 102-42 ATS system of mine.  Even better:  NFL road teams off 4+ losses, and not getting more than 4 points, have covered 81% since 1980 if they're matched up against a foe whose W/L percentage is more than 25% better.  Take New York.  Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Minnesota.  The Packers lost at Carolina last week, but they're back home at Lambeau Field for this game against their NFC North division rival.  And NFC North division teams are 58-30 ATS off a loss vs. a division foe off a win!  Even better:  Green Bay plays with revenge vs. Minnesota from an upset loss earlier this season.  And teams from the NFC North (or its forerunner, the NFC Central) are 29-6 ATS as underdogs of more than 6 points when playing with revenge vs. a division foe.  Take Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Appalachian State.  These two teams met in last year's Camellia Bowl.  The Mountaineers were favored by a point, and won that game, 31-28.  Thus, Toledo will look to avenge that defeat.  And I think they'll get it, as teams playing with revenge from a loss in the same, or previous season, have generally performed well in Bowl games.  And especially if they didn't lose the previous meeting by 17+ points.  In that situation, they're 13-1-1 ATS since 2008.  Lay the points with Toledo. NCAA Bowl Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Ravens blew out Cleveland, 27-10, last week, while Indy fell to the Broncos, 25-13.  We'll lay the points with the Ravens, as they are 17-0 ATS at home off a win by more than 15 points, when playing an opponent off a loss.  Take Baltimore.  NFL High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over San Diego State.  The Service Academies (Army, Navy and Air Force) have always excelled in the Bowl games, no doubt due to the extreme discipline and preparedness that permeate the programs.  Indeed, dating back to 1980, the three academies are 31-14 ATS in the Bowl games, with Army leading the pack at 5-1, 83% ATS.  And they're a combined 14-3 ATS when getting more than six points.  That bodes well for the Black Knights on Saturday.  As does the fact that the Aztecs are 2-5 ATS their last seven as a favorite in the post-season.   Finally, Army led the nation with 356 rushing yards per game, and also was among the Top 5 in yards per rush, with 6.1.  And over the last 22 seasons, underdogs of more than four points have cashed 100% (10-0 ATS) in the Bowls if they average at least 5.75 yards per rush.  Take Army.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Central Michigan.  Wyoming ended its season with two straight defeats.  It lost 13-7, at home, to Fresno State.  And then was upset, 20-17, as an 18-point favorite at San Jose St.  But QB Josh Allen didn't play in either game.  He's expected to be back under center this afternoon, and that will greatly help the Cowboys' offense.  Meanwhile, Central Michigan upset Northern Illinois, 31-24, as a 2.5-point underdog in its last regular season game.  Unfortunately, since 1980, teams off upset wins to end their regular season have cashed just 36% in Bowl games away from home vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Wyoming.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs and Atlanta Falcons to go 'under' the total.  This play is purely technical in nature, and based on the season stats of Tampa and Atlanta.  It falls into 116-60 and 169-111 Totals systems of mine (both of which supported our play last Monday on the 'under' in the Miami/New England game).  Interestingly, these two teams have combined for 54, 71 and 55 points in their three previous meetings.  The knee-jerk reaction, then, might be to look for another high-scoring game tonight.  But consider that division games that have combined for 54+ points in each of the three previous meetings have gone 'under' the total 67.6% of the time over the past 27 years.  Finally, Tampa Bay is a solid 19-9 'under' the total its last 28 division games at home (including 8-2 'under' its last 10), while Atlanta is 8-3-2 'under' its last 13 division road games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Dallas, as Oakland falls into a 124-55 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs.  Dallas does come into this game off back to back blowout wins, as it defeated Washington, 38-14, two weeks ago.  And it smashed the Giants, 30-10, last Sunday.  Unfortunately for the Cowboys, unrested NFL road teams off back to back SU/ATS wins, in which they scored 30+ points in each game, have gone 121-162 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for the Cowboys at Oakland.  And neither does the fact that, late in the season, NFL home underdogs have excelled, as they've cashed 57.4% off a straight-up loss, at Week 14 forward.  Finally, Dallas is 7-6 SU/ATS this season.  But it's a woeful 24-41 ATS as a road favorite if it owned a winning SU/ATS record.  Take the points with the Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Minnesota.  The Bengals' 4-game point spread win streak was snapped last Sunday by the Chicago Bears, as Cincy lost, 33-7, as a 6-point favorite.  But underdogs of more than 3 points, off a double-digit loss as a favorite of -6 points (or more), have cashed 63.3% over the last 30 years.  And the Bengals also fall into a 140-62 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Finally, Cincinnati is 19-5 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points vs. non-division foes off a loss (including 9-0 ATS their last nine), while the Vikings have covered just 10 of 37 as a 7-point (or greater) favorite off a loss.  Take Cincy.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  It's true that the Browns are 0-13 on the season (and 1-28 the past two seasons).  But it's also a team which is still playing hard.  Last week, it fought gamely against a Green Bay team still in the Playoff hunt, and lost in overtime, 27-21.  The week before, it played a Chargers squad that's currently won 7 of 9, yet lost by just nine points, 19-10.  This week, it will take on the Baltimore Ravens, who lost, 39-38, at Pittsburgh last week.  And the fact that Cleveland has yet to win means that it will continue to fight hard for that maiden victory.  Indeed, 0-13 (or worse) teams have gone 8-2 ATS in the season's final three weeks.  Even more impressive is the fact that those teams went 5-5 straight-up, notwithstanding the fact that they were underdogs in each game (with an average point spread of +9.15).  Finally, the Ravens have covered just six of 24 games off back-to-back point spread wins.  Don't be surprised if Cleveland wins, straight-up.  Take the points with the Browns.  NFL Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  Certainly, Philadelphia caught a tough break last week when its 1st string quarterback, Carson Wentz, was lost to injury for the remainder of the season.  So, now, the Eagles will turn to their 2nd string QB, Nick Foles.  Interestingly, the NFC’s top two teams — Minnesota and Philadelphia — both have backup quarterbacks as their starter, so it may be premature to shovel dirt on the Eagles’ grave, as the Vikings are clearly proving that you can have extreme success with a back-up QB.  That being said, I’m still going to take the points with the New York Giants on Sunday.  One reason is that this will be the Eagles’ third straight road game.  And NFL teams are a wallet-busting 71-121 ATS when playing their 3rd straight road game, provided they’re not off back to back losses in the previous two.  That bodes well for the Giants.  As does the fact that home underdogs (or PK) are 169-123 ATS at Week 14 forward, if they’re off a SU/ATS loss.  Take New York.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  The Jets were shutout, 23-0, in an upset loss last week at Denver.  But teams off a 21-point (or worse) upset shutout loss have covered 63% over the past 25 years.  Take the New York Jets.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins minus the points over Arizona.  The Redskins return home off back to back road losses at Dallas, and at the Chargers.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals are off an upset win over Tennessee.  But .260 (or better) teams have gone 48-22 ATS off back to back road losses, when matched up against foes off upset wins.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Chicago/Detroit game.  Both of these teams went 'under' the total last week.  Chicago defeated Cincy, 33-7, and that game went under the posted total of 40.5 by a half-point.  Meanwhile, Detroit and Tampa Bay combined for 45 points, which stayed under that game's total of 48.  The Bears are 9-4 'under' this season, and have also gone 'under' in 31 of 54 division games.  And this game also falls into a 157-94 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts Over the total.  The Colts lost in overtime to Buffalo last week, 13-7.  And that was the fifth straight 'Under' played by the Colts.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play this game 'Under' the total as well, especially since Denver was also involved in a very low-scoring game (23-0) last week vs. the Jets.  But consider that NFL teams off 4 straight 'Unders' have gone 'OVER' THE TOTAL 133-86-6 (60.7%) if they scored less than 13 points in their previous game, including 92-46-3 'OVER' if the line was 37+ points!  Take the 'Over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Miami/New England game, as it falls into a 90-55 Totals System of mine.  Additionally, both of these teams come into Monday's game off stellar defensive performances.  The Dolphins held Denver to just 9 points last week, while New England surrendered just 3 points to Buffalo.  And NFL match-ups, between two teams that each held their respective previous opponent to less than 10 points, have gone 'Under' 77% of the time since 1980 when the Over/Under line was 45+ points!  Moreover, New England is currently on an 8-game win streak keyed by its defense.  The Patriots' stop unit hasn't allowed any opponent to score more than 17 points throughout this stretch, and has gone 'Under' in six of the eight games.  Take the 'Under.'  Monday Night Football Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over Baltimore.  Pittsburgh was our preseason pick (at 12-1 odds) to win the Super Bowl, and it has done nothing to disappoint thus far.  Mike Tomlin's men are 10-2 straight-up, including 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS here at home.  And Pittsburgh has long had tremendous success at home, especially in this price range, as it is 89-27-1 SU and 72-44-1 ATS when priced between -3.5 and -7 points!  That bodes well for Pittsburgh on Sunday night.  As does the fact that the Steelers are 18-7-1 ATS as a home favorite of -2.5 (or more) points vs. Baltimore, including 10-1-1 ATS if the Ravens were off a point spread win.  Finally, Baltimore comes into this game off a 44-20 blowout win over Detroit.  But the Ravens are a woeful 8-25-4 ATS on the road off a win by more than 18 points, including 0-11 ATS when getting more than 3 points.  Take Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Seattle.  Last week, we had a big play on the Seattle Seahawks as a home underdog vs. Philadelphia.  And Seattle rewarded us with an upset win at home.  Unfortunately, they now have to go on the road.  And winning teams are a dreadful 39-74 ATS on the road vs. other winning teams, if our road team was off an upset win at home in its previous game.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck as always…Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos over the NY Jets.  Last week, the Denver Broncos were favored by 1.5 points at Miami, but lost, 35-9.  Meanwhile, the New York Jets upset Kansas City, 38-31, as a 4-point home underdog.  Now, Denver has been installed as a home underdog, and we'll grab the points, as NFL home teams have cashed 80% over the past 17 years off an upset road loss if they're now matched up against an opponent off an upset win, and are not favored by 3+ points.  Also, Denver's 27-14-2 ATS its last 43 as home underdogs.  Take Denver.  NFL Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.