At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Dallas Cowboys/Atlanta Falcons game.  The Cowboys enter this game off back to back Overs, as they were blown out, 47-9, by Detroit, and lost to San Francisco, 30-24.  I will take this game UNDER, as Dallas is 29-17 Under the total off back-to-back Overs, while Atlanta is 33-21 Under vs. an opponent off back-to-back Overs.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to go UNDER the total.  The first meeting between these two NFC South division rivals was in Week 1, and the Saints blew out the Panthers, 47-10.  That game went over the total of 41.5 by 15.5 points.  But prior to that meeting, these two teams had gone Under in 7 straight games.  I'll look for a reversion to the norm on Sunday, as the Under falls into a 339-255 Totals system of mine, as well as another 145-87 system.  Take the Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans to go UNDER the total.  Both of these teams come into this game off a string of Overs.  The Pats have gone Over in 3 straight, while the Titans have gone Over in 2 straight, including last week's 52-14 blowout loss to the Detroit Lions.  I'll look for a lower-scoring game on Sunday, as teams off back-to-back Overs that gave up more than 38 points in their previous game have gone Under 58.6% vs. foes off 3+ Overs.  Take the Pats/Titans game to go UNDER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Denver Broncos.  Last week, the Broncos moved to 5-3 with a 28-14 win over Carolina, while Baltimore was upset by Cleveland, 29-24.  I like the Ravens to bounce back, as they have dominated winning teams outside their division, going 84-49 ATS, including 48-15 ATS if the Ravens were not off an ATS win.  Denver also falls into negative 36-102 and 62-135 ATS systems of mine. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers to go OVER the total.  The Chargers went under the total of 41.5 last week vs. New Orleans, as they won, 26-8.  And that was L.A.'s 6th under in their 7 games.  A lot of bettors might look to play the under in this game, especially because the Browns are 5-3 under, themselves.  I'm going to look for a relatively high-scoring game, as the Over falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 59.2% of the time.  Additionally, the Chargers tend to go Under at home in non-division games (101-53 Under), but Over on the road outside the division (114-93 Over).  Take the Browns/Chargers game Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  The Saints have lost 6 straight since their 2-0 start, and have been installed as a big road favorite at Carolina.  The Saints' scoring margin is -2.62 ppg, and I won't lay this many points with teams that have negative scoring margins.  And especially not on the road vs. foes off back to back losses, as they've covered just 26.3% since 1980.  We saw this exact situation last week, when the Jets were favored by 7 at New England, even though the Jets' scoring margin was -2.42 ppg.  The Patriots won that game outright, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Carolina do the same.  We'll take the Panthers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Pittsburgh.  This is a great match-up in the ACC Conference.  Both SMU (4-0) and Pittsburgh (3-0) enter with undefeated conference records, and Pitt is also undefeated on the season, with a 7-0 mark (SMU is 7-1).  The Panthers are outscoring their foes by 18.85 ppg, which ranks 13th in NCAA (and betters SMU's mark of 17.75 ppg).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on Pitt as an underdog.  But consider that road underdogs with an 18.85 (or better) scoring margin (as well as a better scoring margin than their opponent) have cashed just 39% over the last 45 years (and just 31.5% when getting 7+ points).  That doesn't bode well for Pitt on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that the Panthers fall into a negative system of mine which is 26-76-2 ATS since 1980 (the same angle I used last week for my SEC Game of the Year Winner on Texas A&M over SMU).  The Mustangs are 11-4 ATS in conference games off a conference win (including a perfect 5-0 ATS at home).  Lay the points with SMU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over Colorado St.  The Rams have covered the spread in their last five games.  They're now favored on the road against Nevada, which was blown out by 21 last week in Hawaii.  We'll fade Colorado St., as Mountain West road favorites have covered just 10 of 36 after 3 straight ATS wins.  Even better:  the Rams are an ugly 0-6 ATS their last six (and 1-8 ATS their last nine) off 3 SU/ATS wins, while Nevada is 31-15 ATS off a loss by more than 17 points.  Take the Wolf Pack.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over TCU.  The Bears were blown out by the Horned Frogs, 42-17, last season in Fort Worth, as a 13-point dog.  Last week, Baylor beat Oklahoma St., 38-28, while TCU won a thriller vs. Texas Tech, 35-34, as a 5-point home favorite.  That was TCU's 2nd straight win, and it will look for #3 in a row at Baylor on Saturday night.  We'll side with the homestanding Bears, as Baylor is 17-3 ATS at home vs. .875 (or worse) foes off a SU win, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing with revenge.  And Baylor also falls into 197-111 and 149-71 ATS systems of mine, that play on certain home teams off back-to-back wins.  Take the Bears minus the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over Texas A&M.  The Gamecocks had last week off after blowing out Oklahoma, in Norman, 35-9, in a Pk'em game.  We played on Texas A&M last Saturday over LSU, as our SEC Game of the Year, and were rewarded with a big 38-23 win.  This week, we'll switch gears and fade the Aggies on the road in Columbia.  Since 1980, the Aggies are an awful 1-16 ATS on the road vs. rested foes off a SU win.  Take South Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan St. Spartans + the points over Indiana.  Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers are off to an 8-0 start, and have covered the spread in their last seven.  And they rank #1 in scoring margin (inclusive of FCS games) with a 32.37 margin of victory.  The Spartans, meanwhile, are 4-4 SU/ATS after losing to Michigan, 24-17, as a 3-point road dog.  We'll take the home dog, as NCAA road favorites have covered just 27% since 1980 vs. conference foes off an ATS loss, if our road fave owned a scoring margin of 24.0 ppg (or better).  Take the Spartans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over the Oregon Ducks.  The Ducks were my preseason pick (at 8-1 odds) to win the National Championship.  They're currently ranked #1, and will face a stiff test on Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor, against the defending champs.  Oregon's been installed as a double-digit road favorite, and we'll grab the points with the Wolverines, as defending champs have gone 17-5 ATS in home conference games vs. undefeated foes.  Additionally, Michigan is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine vs. foes off back to back ATS wins.  And it's also 26-18-1 ATS vs. foes off 3+ point spread wins.  Take Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers lost to Ohio State last week, 27-24 (but covered the spread), while the Bruins snapped a 5-game losing streak with a 35-32 upset win at Rutgers.  We'll fade the 'Huskers, as Nebraska is an ugly 5-16-1 ATS when favored in Big 10 Conference games, including 0-7-1 ATS off a point spread win.  Take UCLA.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over North Carolina.  We played on the Tar Heels last week, and were rewarded with a blowout, 41-14, upset win over Virginia.  Florida State, meanwhile, dropped its fourth straight game, in a 22-point loss at Miami.  But despite its down year, the Seminoles are still 31-14-3 ATS off a road loss the previous week.  And North Carolina is a miserable 0-8-1 ATS off a road upset win, if it wasn't favored by more than 7 in its current game.  Take Florida State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Houston.  The Wildcats edged their rival, Kansas, 29-27, as a 10-point favorite last week, while Houston upset Utah, 17-14, as a 4.5-point dog.  The Wildcats are a super 86-51-1 ATS off a point spread defeat, including 20-2-1 ATS their last 23 vs. .375 (or better) foes.  And Houston is a woeful 0-12 ATS as an underdog of 20 or less points (or PK).  Take Kansas State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm (time change), our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Oklahoma State.  This is the first season these two teams have been conference rivals.  But they did meet each of the last two seasons when ASU was a Pac-12 Conference school.  Oklahoma State won each of those two meetings, by scores of 34-17 and 27-15.  We'll take the Sun Devils to avenge those defeats, as they fall into a revenge system of mine which is 256-193 ATS since 1980.  ASU has also cashed 78% since 1980 as a revenge-minded road favorite vs. conference foes.  Take Arizona State.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian St. Mountaineers + the points over Old Dominion.  The Monarchs pulled off their third straight upset win last week, when they walloped Georgia Southern, 47-19.  They're now favored on the road at App State, and we will happily grab the points.  Last season, App State was favored by 6 points, but upset by ODU, 28-21.  I look for the Mountaineers to avenge that defeat, as NCAA road favorites have covered just 37% over the last 42 years off 3 straight underdog covers.  Moreover, Appalachian State is 6-0 ATS as an underdog vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  And it's 3-0 ATS as a revenge-minded underdog.  Take the Mountaineers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:45 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Tigers had an impressive win at Kentucky last week, as they blew out the Wildcats, 24-10, as a 1.5-point underdog.  Vandy also impressed in defeat, as it lost by just three to Texas, as a 17-point dog.  Auburn is an awesome 13-0-1 ATS its last 14 (and 18-3-1 its last 22) as a favorite at home, or on neutral fields vs. conference foes off a point spread win, if Auburn was off a conference win.  And Vandy is a wallet-breaking 1-11 ATS on the SEC road off a home game where it covered the spread by more than 9 points.  Take Auburn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Houston.  The Jets are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak and their last two losses were both as road favorites.  The Jets lost, 37-15, at Pittsburgh, as a 2.5-point favorite, and fell last week at New England, 25-22, as a 7-point fave.  I'll take New York to get off the schneid tonight, as home teams have cashed 61% since 1980 off back-to-back losses as road favorites.  Additionally, the Jets are 5-0-1 ATS vs. Houston in the last six meetings, when not favored by 4+ points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Kennesaw St.  Last week, the Owls pulled off the 2nd biggest upset of the season when they upended the then-undefeated Liberty Flames, 27-24, as a 27-point home dog.  Only Northern Illinois' upset of Notre Dame, as a 28-point dog, was bigger.  But off that win, we'll fade Kennesaw vs. a Hilltoppers team which has won 5 of its last 6, straight-up, and six straight ATS.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off wins as 7-point (or greater) underdogs have gone 427-532-19 ATS vs. winning foes.  Look for Western Kentucky to cover its seventh straight.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Bobcats come into this game off a 24-14 upset loss at Old Dominion, as a 10.5-point favorite, while the Cajuns have won four straight, including a 34-24 triumph at Coastal Carolina their last game.  We'll lay the points with the Bobcats, as teams off double-digit losses, as double-digit favorites the previous week, have cashed 66.2% of regular season games vs. conference foes off back to back wins.  Additionally, the Bobcats have cashed 70% of conference games off upset defeats, while the Cajuns are 3-10-1 ATS vs. foes off upset losses.  Take Texas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Pittsburgh.  The New York Giants mustered just 3 points last week, in a 25-point loss to the Eagles, while the Steelers went for 37 in a 22-point win vs. the New York Jets.  Given the disparate results, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the home team in this Monday Night Football game.  But I will grab the points with New York, as underdogs off losses by more than 20 points have gone 40-24-1 ATS vs. foes off wins by more than 20 points.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/New York Giants game.  Last week, in Russell Wilson's debut for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin's men racked up 37 points in a 22-point win over the Jets.  And that was the most points that the Steelers scored in a win since October 18, 2020, when they blew out Cleveland, 38-7.  I expect a relatively high-scoring game on Monday, and will take the OVER, as Pittsburgh has gone 75-51-2 OVER the total when the O/U line was less than 40 points, including 30-8-2 OVER when the Steelers were favored between -3.5 and -8.5 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over San Francisco.  Dallas was blown out, 47-9, two weeks ago, and had last week off to lick their wounds and regroup for this huge game against San Francisco.  The Cowboys have been installed as a road underdog.  And NFL dogs of +4 (or more) points have cashed 72.7% ATS off losses by more than 37 points.  We'll take the Cowboys on this Sunday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Denver Broncos.  The Panthers are in a tailspin, and have failed to cover the spread by 23, 12, and 22 points in their last 3 games.  They're now getting more than a touchdown from the Broncos, and underdogs of more than 4 points that failed to cover the spread by 12+ points in each of their last three games, have gone 16-4 ATS their last 20, including 9-1 ATS on the road.  Take Carolina.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Carolina/Denver game.  The Panthers' defense is giving up 34.7 ppg this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for their games to go Over the total.  But consider that NFL teams with horrid defenses that give up more than 34 ppg, have gone 160-106 UNDER the total.  We played on Carolina/Washington UNDER last week, and got the $$$ in the Commanders' 40-7 win.  We'll take the UNDER once again, as it falls into a 112-55 totals system of mine.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New Orleans/LA Chargers game.  The Chargers are 5-1 Under this season.  And their one game which went Over -- their 23-16 win at Denver -- only did so when the Broncos kicked a FG with 1:03 left in the game.  For those who follow coach Jim Harbaugh, this isn't a surprise, as the 49ers went 21-13 Under his last 2 seasons with them, as head coach.  I'll look for another low-scoring Chargers game on this Sunday.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Saints were blown out in their Thursday night football game, 33-10, by the Denver Broncos.  I like playing on NFL teams off huge blowout losses on Thursdays, and especially when they're installed as an underdog vs. an unrested opponent.  One reason is that teams that get embarrassed are highly-motivated to redeem themselves in their next game.  And when you are able to get points as a dog, and play a team which isn't as well-rested, it adds up to an advantageous situation, which has cashed north of 60% over the last 45 years.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Atlanta/Tampa Bay game.  The Bucs lost their top 2 receivers when Chris Godwin and Mike Evans went down with injuries in Monday's loss to Baltimore.  QB Baker Mayfield will now have to rely on rookie Jalen McMillan, ex-NY Giant, Sterling Shepard, and 2nd year-pro, Trey Palmer.  Although the Buccaneers have played their last four games Over the total, including a 36-30 overtime loss at Atlanta three games ago, I expect their offense to take a major step backwards on Sunday.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Arizona/Miami game.  Tua Tagovailoa is set to return from the injured reserve this week, and I'll pull the trigger on the Dolphins and Cards to go Over the total.  Without their star QB under center, the Dolphins' offense has sputtered in their last four games, and averaged just 10 points.  Three of those four games went Under the total.  For the season, Miami is averaging just 11.66 ppg.  And NFL teams that average 11.66 (or less) points, and have gone Under their previous two games, have proceeded to play OVERS in their next game 66% of the time.  Take the Over.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over LSU.  Last week, the Aggies were a 21.5-point favorite at Mississippi St.  They won, 34-24, but failed to cover the point spread by 11.5 points.  Off that ATS defeat, we'll look for the Aggies to bounce back in College Station on Saturday.  Texas A&M is an awesome 7-0 ATS its last seven, and 35-18-1 ATS its last 54, at home off a point spread loss when playing an opponent off a SU win.  LSU, meanwhile, enters off 6 straight wins and 3 straight covers.  Unfortunately, though, the Tigers are an ugly 11-22 ATS if they covered the spread in each of their 3 previous games.  Finally, Texas A&M falls into one of my favorite systems, which is 74-23-2 ATS.  Lay the points with the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears minus the points over Oregon State.  The Golden Bears kicked off 2024 with three wins, but have dropped their last four games, including an upset loss last week to NC State, as a 9.5-point home favorite.  And their four defeats this season were all narrow.  They lost by 1 point to Miami-Fla and NC State; by 2 points to Pittsburgh; and by 5 points to Florida St.  We'll lay the points with California against former conference foe, Oregon State, as California is 12-3 ATS off 3+ losses, when not getting 10+ points.  And the Golden Bears are also a solid 14-7-1 ATS off an upset loss.  Finally, the Golden Bears play this game with revenge from a 52-40 loss to the Beavers last season.  And Cal falls into a 34-8 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams off SU losses.  Take the Golden Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Illinois.  Dan Lanning's Ducks keep on rolling along, as they blew out Purdue, 35-0, in West Lafayette last week.  Oregon currently sits at #1 in the national polls with a 7-0 record, and they'll welcome the Illini to Autzen Stadium on Saturday afternoon.  We'll lay the points with Oregon, as NCAA teams off a road shutout win over a conference foe the previous week have gone 136-82-5 ATS since 1980.  Additionally, the Illini are a poor 12-25 ATS in conference road games when priced from +16 to +28 points.  Take Oregon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over TCU.  Last week, we played on TCU, as a 3-point underdog at Utah, and were rewarded with a 13-7 upset win.  We also played against the Red Raiders, and got the $$$ when Baylor walloped the Red Raiders, 59-35, as a 4.5-point road dog.  But off that 24-point upset loss, we'll grab the points with Texas Tech at TCU.  Indeed, the Red Raiders are a solid 61-37 ATS in conference games after failing to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game (including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +5.5 to +8 points).  And TCU is a nasty 1-15-1 ATS when favored by more than 3 points off an upset win.  Take Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Missouri.  The Tide were rolled by Tennessee last Saturday, as the Vols upset them, 24-17, as a 3.5-point home dog.  Meanwhile, Missouri won (and covered) its second straight game, with a 21-17 win over Auburn, as a 3-point home favorite.  We'll take 'Bama to bounce back, as it's 22-3 ATS in SEC Conference games off a point spread loss, if it was playing an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Crimson Tide.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over BYU.  We played against the Cougars last week, and got the $$$ with Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys almost pulled off the big upset, but #11-ranked BYU escaped with a 38-35 win after scoring the game-winning TD with 10 seconds left.  This week, the 7-0 Cougars will travel cross-country to take on the Knights. Unfortunately for BYU, undefeated NCAA teams, at Game 8 forward, have covered just 25% since 1980 as underdogs vs. conference foes off a SU loss.  Lay the points with UCF.

At 12:45 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Mississippi St.  The Razorbacks come into this game in Starkville off a 34-10 loss to #8-ranked LSU.  And they'll be out for revenge as, last season, the Bulldogs upset Arkansas, 7-3, in Fayetteville.  We'll take Arkansas on Saturday afternoon, as it is a super 33-17-1 ATS on the SEC road when playing with revenge.  Even better:  the Razorbacks are 16-6-1 ATS in SEC games off a conference defeat, including 8-1-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  The Bulldogs are a poor 4-15-1 ATS their last 20 when not getting more than 21 points.  And they're 14-24-1 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe.  We'll lay the points with Arkansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Virginia.  North Carolina has lost four straight games, and is 0-5 ATS its last 5 FBS games.  Two weeks ago, the Tar Heels fell at home to Georgia Tech, 41-34, as a 3.5 point dog.  They'll travel to Charlottesville to face a Cavaliers squad on Saturday afternoon.  And UVa has covered its last four games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Cavaliers, and against the ice-cold Tar Heels.  However, consider that NCAA teams on a 4-game (or better) ATS losing streak have cashed 56% since 1980 vs. foes on a 4-game (or better).  Virginia is a wallet-busting 34-65-4 ATS as a single-digit favorite against .400 (or better) foes.  Take the Tar Heels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels + the points over Boise State.  These two teams met last season in the Mountain West Championship game, and Boise blew out UNLV, 44-20.  The Rebels have had this rematch circled on their calendar, and we'll grab the points with the revenge-minded home team.  Indeed, UNLV is a super 20-6 ATS at home, when playing with revenge, if it was priced from +3 to +14 points.  Even better:  the Rebels return home following back-to-back road games.  And UNLV is 7-0-1 ATS its last eight (and 17-7-1 ATS its last 25) home games after playing back-to-back on the road.  Take the Rebels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Jacksonville State/Middle Tennessee State game.  The Gamecocks come into this game off 3 straight blowout wins over Southern Miss (44-7), Kennesaw State (63-24) and New Mexico State (54-13).  The Gamecocks have played five of their six games Over the total this season, but we'll look for a much lower-scoring game tonight.  Indeed, NCAA teams off back to back games where they topped 50 points have gone Under 56%.  Additionally, the Under falls into 126-61 and 141-73 Totals systems of mine.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks minus the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The Gamecocks enter tonight's game off 3 SU/ATS wins, in which they've covered the spread by 31, 22, and 20 points, including wins in their last two games where they've scored 63 and 54 points.  We'll lay the points with the Gamecocks tonight, as home teams have cashed 58% in conference games the last 45 years after scoring more than 48 in each of their two previous games.  Take Jacksonville State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Bucs.  Each of these two teams comes into back to back high-scoring games that went over the total.  The Ravens' last two games totaled 53 and 79, while the Bucs' previous two games went for 78 and 66.  We'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Monday night, as Baltimore is 32-13 UNDER the total off back-to-back overs, including 23-6 UNDER its last 29 when the O/U line was 42+ points.  Even better:  NFL Monday games have gone Under 67.6% the last 41 years if both teams were off back to back overs, and each team's previous two games combined for more than 100 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Pittsburgh. Last week, the Jets lost to the Buffalo Bills, 23-20, as a 1-point home dog. I like New York to bounce back this Sunday night, as road favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) have cashed 59.1% since Sept 29, 1992 off a SU loss if they were playing a foe off a SU win. Additionally, in Aaron Rodgers’ career starts, his teams have gone 58-31-1 ATS following a point spread defeat. And Rodgers has also gone 3-0 ATS vs. the Steelers. Lay the points. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Washington Commanders. Carolina was blown out by 18 points at home by the Falcons last week, while Washington lost by 7 at Baltimore. The Commanders are favored by more than a touchdown, which is the biggest number they’ve laid this season. Unfortunately for the Commanders, they’re 15-46 ATS when favored by more than 5 points, including 1-17 ATS when they were playing an opponent that failed to cover the spread by 10 or more points in its previous game. Take Carolina + the points. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Washington/Carolina game. Each of these two teams has played five of their six games Over the total. Of course, the reasons for this are vastly different. The Commanders' games have been going over due to an offense which has averaged 29.66 ppg, while the Panthers' games have been going over due to a defense which has given up 33.83 ppg. But teams with horrible defenses that give up more than 31 ppg tend to go under the total (371-297 UNDER), as do match-ups between teams that average 29+ points and teams that give up 29+ points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Indianapolis Colts. Last week, the Colts upset the Tennessee Titans, 20-17, as a 2.5-point underdog. And that was the 3rd straight game that the Colts covered the point spread as an underdog. In this game, however, the Colts are favored. And NFL favorites (or PK’em teams) off 3 straight dog covers are a poor 50-71 ATS. Take Miami + the points.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the under in the Atlanta/Seattle game. Both of these teams come into this game off 3 straight overs. And their games last week were very high-scoring, as Seattle’s game went over the total by 11 points, while Atlanta’s game went over by 12 points. Dating back to 1980, NFL games have tended to go under the total when each team was off 3 overs, and especially if they both went over the total by 10+ points in their previous game. In that situation, the under has cashed 69 percent over the last 45 seasons. We’ll take the UNDER in Seattle/Atlanta.

At 9:30 am, in an early game played in London, England, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are playing back to back games across the pond. Last Sunday, they were favored vs. Chicago, but were blown out, 35-16. They're now 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite, and 12-23 ATS their last 35. I can't trust the Jaguars when laying points, especially given they've only won 2 of their previous 12 games, straight-up. Moreover, this NFL season, underdogs of more than 5 points have gone 19-8-1 ATS, including 17-5-1 ATS away from home. We'll take the Patriots + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points against Utah.  Both of these teams will be looking for redemption after getting upset in their previous game.  But we will look the way of the underdog in this game.  This season, TCU is 0-4 ATS as a favorite, but 1-0 ATS as an underdog in its five FBS games.  And Utah is 1-0 ATS this season when not favored, but 0-4 ATS this season when laying points.  We'll stick with these trends and play on TCU as a dog, as it falls into 126-46, 70-17 and 175-82 ATS systems of mine that take certain teams off upset losses, while Utah falls into a negative 49-127 ATS system of mine, based on its upset loss in its previous game.  Take the Horned Frogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Florida.  The Wildcats are licking their wounds after getting stomped at home by Vanderbilt last weekend.  We'll lay the points on the road with Kentucky, as SEC Conference teams have gone 61-39 ATS on the road off an upset loss, when matched up against an SEC foe off an ATS win.  Take Kentucky.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights + the points over Iowa State.  The 9th-ranked Cyclones are undefeated, at 6-0, and will welcome UCF to Ames on Saturday night.  The Knights will be looking to bounce back off 3 straight upset losses, at the hands of Colorado, Florida and Cincinnati.  The good news for UCF is that college teams off 3 upset losses have cashed 73% since 1983 when installed as a road underdog vs. foes off a SU/ATS win (and 86% if they were getting more than 9 points).  Take Central Florida.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Vanderbilt.  The Commodores come into this game off not 1, but 2 upsets over SEC Conference rivals -- each as a double-digit underdog.  Now, in a role reversal, they're laying double-digits to a non-conference foe.  But SEC Conference teams are an ugly 1-9-1 ATS off back-to-back upset wins.  And Vandy is also a wallet-busting 5-11 ATS when favored by 14+ points.  Take Ball State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over USC.  The four Big 10 teams from the Pac-12 have been great at home (6-3 ATS), but terrible on the road (1-5 ATS) in conference games this season.  This week, USC will have to travel to Maryland to take on a Terrapins team looking to make amends for an embarrassing 37-10 loss last week to Northwestern, as an 11-point home favorite.  We'll grab the points, as home teams have cashed 61% the past 45 years off 13-point (or worse) defeats as favorites of 11+ points (including 20-10 ATS as a home underdog).  Take Maryland.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Texas Tech.  We played on the Red Raiders in their previous game, and were rewarded with a 28-22 upset win over Arizona, as a 6.5-point underdog.  But we'll fade Texas Tech off that upset win, as they're a soft 13-26 ATS following an outright win as a dog.  Meanwhile, the Bears were steamrolled by Iowa State, 43-21, in their previous game.  They're now getting points from Texas Tech in Lubbock, and we'll happily take Baylor dressed up as an underdog.  The Bears are a solid 24-8-2 ATS off a point spread loss, when matched up against foes with a win percentage greater than .600, including 17-3-1 ATS as a conference underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Houston.  Both of these teams come into this game with a week of rest.  Kansas lost, 35-31, at Arizona St., as a 2-point underdog, on October 5.  Meanwhile, the Cougars pulled off a massive upset in their previous game when they went into Fort Worth, and upset TCU, 30-19, as a 16-point underdog.  They're getting much less than that here, and we'll fade the Cougars, as single-digit underdogs have cashed just 42% in the last 45 seasons off an upset win as a 16-point (or greater) underdog.  Kansas is a solid 25-16 ATS as a home favorite, including a perfect 4-0 ATS vs. foes off an upset win.  And Houston is a horrid 42-74-1 ATS vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Lay the points with the Jayhawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Rice.  The Green Wave come into this game off two huge wins, as they defeated South Florida, 45-10, as as 4-point favorite.  And then they followed that up with a 71-20 demolition of UAB, as a 19.5-point favorite.  For the season, Tulane ranks #6 in the country in point spread differential, as it's covered its FBS games by an average of 13.8 ppg.  In contrast, the Owls rank as the 5th worst team in point spread differential, as it has failed to cover the spread by 13.1 ppg in its FBS games.  We'll fade Rice, as underdogs of 19+ points, that have failed to cover the spread by an average of at least 11.63 ppg, at Game 7 forward, have covered just 34%.  Lay the points with Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Roadrunners are 2-0 at home, with wins over Kennesaw St (28-16) and Houston Christian (45-7), and 0-4 on the road.  The good news for Jeff Traylor's men, then, is that they've back home at the Alamodome on Saturday.  UTSA has covered 70% of its home conference games that were competitively-priced with point spreads of 5 or less, while Florida Atlantic is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games where the spread was 5 or less.  Lay the points with the Roadrunners.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets + the points over Northern Illinois.  The Rockets were upset at Buffalo, 30-15, as a 10.5-point road favorite last week.  Off that clunker, we'll take the Rockets at Northern Illinois this afternoon.  The Rockets are a super 14-6 ATS off an upset loss.  And, even better, NCAA teams with a .666 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 61.6% since 1980 as road underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 10 points.  Toledo is also 8-4 ATS at Northern Illinois, including 3-0 ATS off a straight-up loss.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Virginia.  The Tigers have rebounded nicely after getting annihilated by Georgia, 34-3, in their season opener.  Since that debacle, they've gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS.  Their last two games were on the road, so Clemson will be excited to be back home in Death Valley, where they've covered 6 straight.  Meanwhile, Virginia hits the road after back to back ATS wins at home.  The Tigers are 18-11 ATS their last 29 games vs. Virginia.  And they've also cashed 61% of their home ACC games off back-to-back road games.  Finally, Virginia is 1-7 ATS on the road off back-to-back home ATS wins.  Take Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Arizona State. Last week, the Sun Devils pulled off an upset as a 6-point home dog when they upended Utah, 27-19. But off that upset win, we'll fade ASU on the road in Ohio. The Sun Devils are a wallet-lightening 7-18 ATS away from home off an upset win. And Cincy is 30-14 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points vs. foes off a SU win. Take the Bearcats to blow out the Sun Devils. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Oklahoma St. Cowboys + the points over the BYU Cougars.  The Cougars are off to a 6-0 start this season, and have covered all five of their FBS games.  We'll go against the Cougars on Friday night, and grab the points with Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys were upset at home last week, 38-14, as a 3-point home favorite.  But Okie State is a solid 10-0 ATS as an underdog off an upset loss, when playing a foe off a SU win.  That bodes well for the Cowboys on Friday night.  As does the fact that BYU has covered just 25% since 1980 as a home favorite of =10 (or less) points, if BYU was off a SU/ATS win, and its opponent was off a SU/ATS loss.  Grab the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Denver. The Saints were blown out last week in quarterback Spencer Rattler’s first start, and lost 51-27 to the Tampa Bay Bucs. Denver also lost last week, as they fell by 7 to the Chargers as a home underdog. The Broncos are favored on the road, even though they are 9-22-1 ATS away from home when not getting 4 (or more) points. I’ll take the Saints to bounce back, as underdogs of less than 9 points have gone 39-22 ATS after giving up more than 48 points in their previous game. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Sam Houston St. Bearkats minus the points over Western Kentucky.  This is a great match-up in Conference USA action, as both teams come into the game with undefeated (2-0) conference records.  I like the homestanding Bearkats, as they've covered the spread in four straight, including by 10+ points in each of their two previous games.  And this has triggered a solid 'momentum' system, as home teams off 2 wins and 4 straight covers have cashed 57.3% vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home team covered the spread in its two previous games by double-digits.  The Bearkats are 8-1 ATS their last nine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars minus the points over Troy.  The Trojans enter this game with an 0-5 record vs. FBS opponents and a 1-4 ATS ledger.  And they've failed to cover the spread by 4.5 ppg.  I expect South Alabama to have a lot of success in the ground game, as it is averaging 7.1 ypr this season, while the Trojans are allowing 5.1 ypr in their six games.  Although both teams do enter this game off back-to-back ATS losses, the Jaguars are a solid 11-3 ATS in conference games off two ATS defeats.  Finally, the Jaguars fall into a 56-27 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/New York game.  I'll look for a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday night, as the Giants have gone 68-45 Under the total when the O/U line was greater than 46 points, while the Bengals are 37-10 Under on the road when the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  Additionally, the Under falls into a 336-233-12 Totals system of mine.  Take the Giants and Bengals Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Giants.  Cincy lost to the Baltimore Ravens, 41-38, in overtime last week, while the Giants upset the Seahawks, 29-20.  We'll take the Bengals to bounce back in the Meadowlands, on Sunday night, as they're 16-8-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 8-2 ATS off a SU loss.  Additionally, NFL teams off a SU loss, in which they scored more than 36 points, have covered 64.6%.  Finally, over the last 45 years, the Giants have covered just 39% of home non-division games, if they were off an upset win, and their opponent was off a SU loss.  Lay the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Denver Broncos.  The Broncos blew out Las Vegas, 34-18, last week.  They'll now host the rested Chargers, who had last week off to rest and regroup following their 17-10 loss to the defending champion Chiefs two weeks ago.  I'll take Los Angeles, as the Broncos are a brutal 4-18 ATS at home off an ATS win, if they were playing a .500 (or better) foe in their current game.  Additionally, each of these teams is playing the 2nd of back to back division contests.  And AFC West teams have covered 62% of division games, if they were off a division loss, and their opponent was off a division win.  Take L.A. minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles are 2-2 on the season, and have been outscored by 2.4 ppg. They're now favored by more than a touchdown against Cleveland, which is 1-4 SU/ATS.  I'm not a fan of laying 7+ points with teams that have negative scoring margins, and especially not against opponents with worse won/loss records, as our favorites have covered just 35.7% since 1980.  This season, underdogs in the +7 to +10 price range are a staggering 7-0 SU/ATS!  We'll grab the points with the Browns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, on Sunday morning, in a game played in London, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Chicago.  The Bears blew out Carolina, 36-10, and that was their 2nd straight win and cover.  I'll fade Chicago in this game across the pond, as Chicago is a wallet-crushing 35-54 ATS off a win by more than 10 points, including 2-14-1 ATS away from home off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.  And it is 0-8-1 ATS its last 9 after covering the spread by 10+ points in its previous game.  Take the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Vanderbilt. The Commodores stunned #1-ranked Alabama last week, 40-35, as a 23-point home underdog. I look for a letdown on Saturday night in Lexington, as winning teams, off an upset win as an underdog of more than 18 points, have gone 2-18 ATS when priced from +3 to +17 points vs. a foe off a SU win. That doesn't bode well for Vandy on Saturday. Nor does the fact that the Commodores are 0-8 SU/ATS as underdogs away from home off an upset win. Lay the points with Kentucky. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Ohio State. The Ducks were my preseason pick (at 8-1 odds) to win the National Championship. They're currently ranked #3 in the country, and this game vs. the #2-ranked Buckeyes will go a long way toward determining the seeds in the 12-team tournament at season's end. We'll happily grab the points as home underdogs have gone 10-0-1 ATS their last 11 if they were off 5+ wins, and playing an undefeated foe. Likewise, home underdogs with scoring margins of 18+ points (like Oregon), off back to back wins, have cashed 65% since 1985 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Finally, the Ducks are 27-14 ATS in conference games off 4+ wins, while Ohio State is 1-5 ATS on the Big 10 road vs. undefeated foes, when the spread was 4 points or less. Take Oregon + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over BYU. We played against Arizona last Saturday, and cashed a huge play on Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were a 6.5-point underdog, and won that game outright, 28-22. Off that upset loss, we'll take the Wildcats to bounce back at BYU. Since 1980, the Cougars have covered just 25% as a home favorite off a SU win, vs. opponents off home upset defeats. Meanwhile, Arizona is an awesome 17-6 ATS as an underdog in conference games off an upset loss. Grab the points with Arizona. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over California. The Golden Bears suffered a heartbreaking loss, 39-38, to the undefeated Miami-Fla Hurricanes last Saturday. They now have to play another undefeated team -- the #22-ranked Panthers. We'll fade California, as it's an awful 0-8 ATS its last 8 (and 1-11 ATS its last 12) off a home game where it lost SU and covered the spread. And Pitt is 5-0 ATS its last 5 home games. Finally, at Game 6 forward, NCAA home teams with a win percentage greater than .750, have cashed 58% when favored by 7 or less points against foes off an ATS win. Lay the points with Pitt. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  We played against the Niners last Sunday, and got the $$$ when Arizona pulled off a 24-23 upset, as a 7-point road underdog.  But off that big upset defeat, we'll take San Francisco to bounce back at Seattle.  Indeed, the Niners are a sensational 71-33-2 ATS off an upset loss, if they were favored by 3+ points in their previous game, including 28-7 ATS if the 49ers owned a losing record off the defeat.  San Francisco has also won five straight vs. the Seahawks (covering four of the five).  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Jacksonville St. Gamecocks minus the points over New Mexico St.  The Aggies have been competitive at home this season, with a narrow, 30-24, loss to Liberty (as a 22-point dog), and a 50-40 loss to New Mexico (as a 9.5-point dog).  But on the road, it's been a different story.  The Aggies were shut out, 48-0, by Fresno (as a 20-point dog), and blown out, 31-11, by Sam Houston St. (as a 15-point dog).  Taken together, the Aggies have covered the spread by an average of 7.75 ppg in their home FBS games, but have FAILED to cover the spread in their road FBS games by 16.5 ppg.  Given that this game is being played in Jacksonville, New Mexico St.'s home/road splits don't bode well for it on Wednesday night.  Even worse:  the Aggies are 21-42 ATS when getting 20+ points, including 0-5 ATS when rested.  Lay the points with Jacksonville St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Cowboys come into this game off 3 straight ATS losses to the Saints, Ravens, and Giants, though they did win straight-up, 20-15, in the Thursday Night Football game vs. New York.  We'll take Dallas to get off the point spread schneid tonight, and grab the points with the underdog.  Indeed, Dallas is a solid 61.2% since 1980 off back-to-back ATS losses, if they won their previous game, straight-up (and 73% off 3 ATS losses).  Also, in NFL match-ups between .500 (or better) teams, underdogs of less than 6 points off 3 ATS losses have gone 68-46-3 ATS, including 31-9-1 ATS off a straight-up win.  Take Dallas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over San Francisco.  The Cardinals were favored by 3.5 at home vs. Washington last Sunday, but were blown out 42-14.  Meanwhile, San Francisco smashed New England, 30-13.  We'll take Arizona to rebound , as road underdogs off double-digit upset losses have covered 63% since 1980 vs. division foes off double-digit wins.  That bodes well for Arizona.  As does the fact that San Francisco is 4-18 ATS at home when favored against an opponent not off a win.  Take the Cardinals + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Jaguars have started the 2024 season with four straight losses.  We did play on the Jags last week, and were rewarded with an ATS win when the Jags fell by just four points, 24-20.  Here, they're favored vs. Indianapolis, and we'll lay the points, as winless teams (at Game 5 forward) have gone 83-59 ATS vs. division rivals.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game.  The Ravens have been installed as a small road favorite at Cincinnati.  And when the Ravens are a road favorite, they've gone UNDER the total 50-31-2.  That bodes well for a low-scoring game on Sunday.  As does the fact that division games that are competitively-priced with point spreads of 3 or less, have gone 211-156 (57.4%) UNDER when the O/U line was 45 (or more) points.  Take the Ravens + Bengals Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins over the New England Patriots.  Miami was embarrassed on Monday Night Football when they got blown out by Tennessee, 31-12, as a 2.5-point home favorite.  We'll look for the Fish to bounce back on Sunday, as underdogs (or Pk'em teams) off upset losses by more than 17 points on MNF have gone 10-1 ATS.  Even better:  the Patriots are a poor 0-8 SU/ATS vs. losing teams.  Take Miami.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Washington.  The Browns were a 2.5-point road favorite at Las Vegas, but were upset by the Raiders, 20-16.  They're now a road underdog at Washington, which comes into this game off back to back upset wins.  We'll grab the points with Cleveland as underdogs off upset losses have cashed 60% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Additionally, Washington is a woeful 31-72 ATS as a home favorite (or PK) vs. opponents that don't own a winning record.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Chicago.  The Panthers were 2-15 last season, and scored just 13 points in their first two games this season before benching QB Bryce Young.  With Andy Dalton under center, the offense has looked much better, and the Panthers scored 36 at Las Vegas, and then put up 24 in defeat vs. Cincy.  This week, the Panthers have been installed as a road underdog at Chicago.  We'll grab the points, as Carolina is 49-30 ATS as a road dog vs. .500 (or worse) teams, including a perfect 8-0 ATS off a point spread loss, if their foe was off a SU win.  Additionally, the Bears are a brutal 43-64-4 ATS off a SU/ATS win if their foe was off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Panthers.

At 9:30 am, on Sunday morning (in a game played in London, England), our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Minnesota.  The Jets were upset, 10-9, by the Denver Broncos last week.  But off that upset loss, we'll take New York to bounce back on Sunday.  Indeed, Aaron Rodgers' teams have been terrific with him under center when coming off a SU/ATS loss, as they've gone 58-29 ATS, including 10-3 ATS as an underdog.  And Rodgers' teams have also gone 56-35 ATS in his starts vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Arizona.  The Wildcats stunned Utah, 23-10, as a 7.5-point road underdog last Saturday.  Off that big upset win, we'll fade Arizona as a home favorite this weekend.  Indeed, the Wildcats are a woeful 4-17-1 ATS as a favorite off an outright win as an underdog (or PK), including 1-12 ATS when favored by 4+ points.  Take Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Miami-Fla.  Something's gotta give on Saturday night in Berkeley, as California owns the 12th-best scoring defense (12.7 ppg), while Miami owns the 2nd-best scoring offense (49.4 ppg).  I like the defensive-minded home dog, as California is 16-7-1 ATS its last 24 as a home dog, while Miami is 2-14 ATS away from home off an ATS loss.  Additionally, underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, with a defense that gives up < 14 ppg, have cashed 60% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU win.  Take California.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Michigan.  This is a rematch of the National Championship game won by the Wolverines last January.  Michigan is off to a 3-1 start this season after downing Minnesota, 27-24, last Saturday, in Ann Arbor.  Meanwhile, Washington is 3-2, and enters off a tough loss at Rutgers last week.  We'll fade Michigan, as defending National Champs are a dismal 16-37 ATS away from home off back-to-back wins, when not favored by 7+ points (including 0-6 ATS vs. a foe off a SU loss).  Lay the points with Washington.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Minnesota.  We played on the Gophers last week, and got the $$$ in a 27-24 loss to the Michigan Wolverines.  Minnesota is back home on Saturday, and will welcome the USC Trojans to Huntington Bank Stadium.  Unfortunately for the Gophers, they're a brutal 0-6 SU/ATS at home when not favored by 3+ points.  And Minnesota also falls into a negative 103-182-6 ATS system of mine, which fades certain teams off losses.  Lay the points with the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over San Jose St.  The Spartans are 3-0 ATS this season in its FBS games, after covering the spread at Washington State, in a 54-52 overtime defeat its last time on the field.  Meanwhile, Nevada is 2-2 ATS in its 4 FBS games, but did blow out FCS Eastern Washington, 49-16, its most recent game.  Even though San Jose is 3-0 ATS, we'll fade it on Saturday night, as the Spartans are a wallet-busting 6-17 ATS after covering the spread in its three previous games.  And Nevada is a solid 13-7 ATS vs. opponents that did cover the spread in each of their three previous games.  The Spartans also fall into a negative 24.1% ATS system of mine that fades certain home favorites off road losses.  Grab the points with Nevada.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Iowa State.  The Bears enter this game off an upset home loss to Big 12 Conference rival, BYU, last Saturday.  But off that upset defeat, we'll take the Bears to bounce back in Ames on Saturday night, as Baylor is a super 14-3-2 ATS as an underdog in conference games off an upset loss.  The Bears also play this game with revenge from a 30-18 loss in Waco last October.  And the revenger in this rivalry is 11-2-1 ATS, including 6-0-1 ATS as an underdog.  Take Baylor.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles enter this game off back to back SU/ATS losses, including a 44-7 blowout loss at Jacksonville St. in their last game.  Officially, the Golden Eagles are 0-2 SU/ATS in their FBS games this season.  But they were on their way to another SU/ATS loss in their season opener at Kentucky, before that game was halted in the 3rd quarter due to lightning strikes.  Dating back to 2019, the Golden Eagles are 19-29 ATS, including 4-19 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.  And they're also 0-9 ATS in home conference games off a double-digit non-conference loss.  Lay the points with Louisiana-Lafayette.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers + the points over Marshall.  Appalachian State got a much needed week off after losing to South Alabama 16 days ago.  The Mountaineers were favored by 8.5 points at home vs. the Jaguars, but fell behind, 28-0, in the 2nd quarter, and got buried, 48-14.  I like the Mountaineers to bounce back in Huntington.  App State is 12-4 ATS its last 16 as an underdog, and is 11-1 SU and 8-2 ATS off a double-digit loss.  Even better:  the Thundering Herd are a wallet-breaking 8-23 ATS as a home favorite.  Take Appalachian State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the UNDER in the North Carolina/Pittsburgh game.  The Panthers rolled up 73 points in their last game.  But that was against Youngstown St., an FCS division school.  Pitt will find the sledding a lot more difficult Saturday at North Carolina, and I look for a relatively low-scoring game.  Indeed, road favorites have gone UNDER 68% in FBS games following an FCS win, in which they scored more than 50 points, if the O/U line was > 59 points.  And North Carolina has gone 27-16 UNDER as a home underdog, and also 67% UNDER vs. foes that topped 50 points in their previous game.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels minus the points over Syracuse.  The Rebels routed Fresno State, 59-14, last Saturday and are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this year.  Off that 45-point win, we'll ride with the Rebels on Friday night.  Syracuse will make the trek out West after starting the season with four straight home games.  The Orange hammered Holy Cross last week, 42-14, and are 3-1 on the season.  UNLV has been dominant in its non-conference games, going 21-7 ATS its last 28 vs. non-conference FBS foes.  Even better:  the Rebels are 15-0 ATS off a win by more than 28 points, if their opponent wasn't off an upset loss.  Lay the points with UNLV.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Tampa Bay.  This is Atlanta's 3rd straight home game.  And perhaps the 3rd time will be the charm.  The Falcons didn't cover the spread two games back vs. Kansas City.  And they also didn't cover the closing line last week vs. New Orleans.  But home teams playing their 3rd straight home game, that failed to cover the spread in the previous two, have gone 65-42-3 ATS.  Additionally, Tampa blew out Philly last week, 33-16.  But road underdogs (or PK) off 14-point (or greater) upset wins have gone 111-166 ATS.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over the Troy Trojans.  Last season, the Trojans blew out the Bobcats, 31-13, in San Marcos.  We'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Bobcats tonight, as favorites of more than 7 points have gone 75-42-1 ATS their last 118 when playing away from home with revenge.  Additionally, Troy has been terrible in front of its home faithful, as it's gone 26-45-1 ATS its last 72 at home.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tennessee/Miami game.  The Dolphins come into this game off an outing where they scored just 3 points (a 24-3 loss to the Seahawks).  And Miami has played each of its first three games Under the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially with backup QB Tyler Huntley getting the start.  But NFL teams tend to go OVER the total in Week 4 after commencing a season with 3 straight Unders, and especially when the O/U line is in the 35 to 42.5-point range (42-22-1 OVER).  Indeed, yesterday, the Falcons, Steelers, Vikings and Bears all went Over the total after starting the season with 3 Unders (only the Chargers went Under on Sunday after starting with 3 Unders).  Take the Titans/Dolphins OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Browns were upset by the New York Giants last week, 21-15. I like Cleveland to bounce back, as it’s 13-2 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against an opponent which isn’t a winning team. Also, the Raiders have been horrible at home vs. losing teams when not getting 3 or more points, as they’ve gone 24-60 ATS. Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington.  The Cardinals lost at home to Detroit, 20-13, last week, while the Commanders upset Cincy on Monday Night, 38-33.  We’ll take Arizona to bounce back at home, as it is 35-11 ATS at home off a home loss when it wasn’t favored by 6 or more points.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Houston.  The Jaguars were annihilated on Monday Night Football by the Buffalo Bills.  Buffalo scored touchdowns on its first 5 possessions, and had a 34-3 lead at halftime. The final score was 47-10, and the Jaguars are now 0-3 on the season. We’ll take Jacksonville to bounce back off that embarrassing loss, as underdogs have gone 48-28 ATS following a blowout loss on Monday Night Football by 20+ points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game.  The Steelers have the best defense in the league, as they’re giving up just 8.66 points per game. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here. But consider that great defensive teams with scoring averages of less than 11.6 points per game, have gone OVER the total 130-99 since 1980, at Game 4 forward.  I’ll take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.