At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New Orleans.  New York is 0-3 to start the season.  But I won't pass up taking points from a Saints team which is an ugly 29-60 ATS as a home favorite vs. .500 (or worse) foes off a loss.  Moreover, winless teams are a superb 241-176 on the non-division road since 1980.  And, finally, the Giants are a wallet-fattening 17-0 ATS their last 17 NFC conference road games when they've owned a losing record.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans to go OVER the total.  Both of these teams come into this game off low-scoring games.  The Jets were shutout, 26-0, as a 10-point road underdog in Denver, while Tennessee won, 25-16, as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. the Colts.  New York has played each of its three games under the total, while the Titans have played two of their first three under the total.  And this general paucity of scoring in the games played by these teams thus far has led to the number on this game moving 2 to 3 points down from the opener.  I think this is a severe over-reaction to the fact that the Jets have scored just 20 points this season.  Indeed, New York's first 3 opponents (Denver, Carolina, New England) currently rank #1, #2 and #5 in scoring defense!  The Titans, on the other hand, are giving up a whopping 28 points per game, and rank #25 in scoring defense.  I fully expect the Flyboys to be able to put up some points here, at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  Tennessee has played 7 of its last 8 (and 12 of its last 16) road games over the total, and has surrendered an average of 28.63 ppg in its last eight road games.  And it's 9-0-1 'over' the total its last 10 games off a home win.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners minus the points over Old Dominion.  UTEP fell behind early last week here, at home, to New Mexico, but stormed back for a 20-13 upset victory.  They'll now welcome Conference USA rival, Old Dominion, to El Paso.  And Conference USA teams are a fantastic 76-41 ATS at home off an upset win, if they're playing an opponent not off back to back wins.  Moreover, the Miners fall into a super 69% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset wins.  Take UTEP minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS, while Boston College is 4-0 straight-up.  Clearly, the two teams are going in opposite directions.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Eagles, especially after their impressive win over Missouri last week.  But Boston College falls into a negative 47-74 ATS system of mine which goes against certain undefeated teams against winless ATS foes.  And even though I greatly respect the job that Jeff Hafley is doing in Chestnut Hill, this will be the first time his team is an underdog this season.  For technical support, consider that undefeated underdogs of more than 3 points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a woeful 31.5% ATS since 1985 when matched up against .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take Clemson minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Baylor.  We played on the Bears as a home underdog last Saturday vs. Iowa State, and were rewarded with a 31-29 win, as a 7-point dog.  Baylor is undefeated at 4-0, and once again installed as an underdog - this time in Stillwater vs. the similarly-unbeaten Cowboys.  Unfortunately for the Bears, single-digit Big 12 Conference underdogs have covered just 31% of conference games off an upset win.  Even worse:  undefeated teams are a nasty 12-24 ATS at Oklahoma State.  And, finally, undefeated teams have cashed 69% at home vs. foes off upset home wins where they were at least a touchdown underdog.  Lay the points with Oklahoma State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A&M.  Both of these teams enter Saturday's game in College Station off losses.  Miss State fell at home, 28-25, to LSU, while A&M lost in Arlington to the Arkansas Razorbacks, 20-10.  The Aggies' offense has left a lot to be desired this season.  After losing starter Haynes King to a broken leg earlier this season, the Aggies are trying to make do with backup Zach Calzada.  But he was just 20-for-36 for 151 passing yards vs. Arkansas.  That won't cut it in the rugged SEC Conference.  Miss State is 2-2, but could easily be 4-0 this season.  It lost 31-29 at Memphis, in part due to a blown call by the officials which allowed a Tigers punt return touchdown to stand.  The Bulldogs outyarded Memphis, 468-246 (!), and didn't lose the turnover battle, but somehow lost.  Then last week, Miss State outyarded LSU 486-343, but came away empty.  Texas A&M has covered just 7 of 24 SEC Conference games when favored by 7+ points.  We'll take the Bulldogs as a big road underdog on Saturday night.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over North Carolina State.  The Wolfpack snapped an 8-game losing streak to Clemson, with a 27-21 overtime win as a double-digit underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we will fade NC State in this non-conference game.  Indeed, since 1980, home teams have covered just 33.8% vs. non-conference foes, if they won outright as a double-digit underdog in their previous game.  And if they were off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, then our home teams have only covered 21% (NC State fits this 21% ATS tightener, as well).  Louisiana Tech's QB, Austin Kendall (63-for-104, 837 yds, 7 TDs, 144 QB rating) has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the Bulldogs.  Take LA Tech + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over South Florida.  SMU stunned its metroplex rival, TCU, last Saturday, in Fort Worth, as the Mustangs won by 8, as a 9.5-point underdog.  That moved the record of Sonny Dykes' troops to 4-0 this season.  They're now healthy home favorites against the Bulls, who are 2-2 on the season.   We'll take the homestanding Mustangs, as home favorites of 17+ points, off an upset road win, have cashed 64% since 1980 vs. .500 (or worse) conference foes.  Take SMU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Ole Miss.  Alabama comes into this game off a 63-14 pasting of Southern Mississippi.  I won't step in front of Nick Saban's men here, as his teams are 77-44 ATS when laying between 10 and 29 points.  Even better:  defending National Champs have gone 24-7 ATS in conference games after scoring more than 56 points in their previous game.  Finally, SEC Conference road underdogs of +7 (or more) points are an awful 61-93 ATS against foes off 33+ point victories.  Take Alabama to roll over Ole Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over South Carolina.  Troy was upset last week, 29-16, by Louisiana-Monroe, and will look to bounce back on the road in Columbia against the 2-2 Gamecocks.  Prior to surrendering those 29 points to Monroe, the Trojans had allowed their three previous foes to score just 33 combined.  And that bodes well for Troy here, as .500 (or better) underdogs that allow less than 17.3 ppg have gone 138-92 ATS off an upset loss.  Also, the Trojans are an awesome 7-0 ATS as an underdog off an upset loss, when matched up against .666 (or worse) foes, while South Carolina is 0-8 ATS vs. .666 (or worse) foes off an upset road loss.  And, finally, Troy falls into 220-119 and 91-37 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off SU defeats.  Grab the points with the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Owls are favored by double-digits over the 0-3 Panthers, but fall into an ugly 0-13-1 ATS situation.  Since 2004, Florida Atlantic is 0-13-1 ATS at home vs. losing teams, when favored by less than 12 points.  Even worse:  the Owls come into this game off a blowout, 31-7, loss to Air Force.  But Conference USA favorites of 11 or less points have gone 49-89-4 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference foes.  With the Panthers, indeed, playing with revenge from a 19-point loss last season, we'll grab the double-digits with Florida International.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Kansas State. Lincoln Riley's men will enter Manhattan this afternoon with major revenge, as Kansas State has won the last two years. And the Sooners were favored by 28 and 23.5 points in those two defeats. Never before in the history of my database -- which dates back to 1980 -- has a team lost back to back meetings where it was favored by more than 20 points. We'll step in and play on Oklahoma here, as double-revengers have cashed 55.5 percent if they were upset at home in the previous season. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe.  Dating back to last season, Coastal Carolina has quietly gone 6-0-2 ATS here, at home, in Conway.  Meanwhile, the Warhawks are a wallet-busting 8-15 ATS their last 23 on the road.  Last week, Monroe was at home, and pulled off a stunning upset, 29-16, over Troy, as a 23.5-point dog.  But off that win, we will fade Monroe here, as double-digit underdogs have cashed just 40.2% over the last 42 years vs. winning conference foes, if they were off an upset win the previous week as a two-touchdown underdog.  Take the Chanticleers minus the points.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Cincinnati.  Jack Coan is now listed as 'probable' to play in this match-up between top 10-ranked squads, and we'll grab the points with the homestanding Irish.  Notre Dame has been a very reliable home underdog here, in South Bend, over the years.  And especially when the Irish didn't own a losing record, as they're 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 in that situation.  Even better:  undefeated teams, with a 3-0 (or better) record, have cashed 62 of 100 as home dogs vs. opponents that are also unbeaten, including a perfect 6-0 ATS since Sept 29, 2018.  Take Notre Dame + the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Louisville.  Wake Forest comes into this game off four straight blowout wins (by 20+ points each).  And they've covered the spread by 23.5 and 16.5 their past two games.  I won't step in front of this freight train here, in Winston-Salem, as home teams have covered 60% over the last 42 years in conference games, if they were off back to back 20-point wins, covered the spread by 10+ points in each, and weren't favored by more than 7 points.  Lay the points with Wake Forest.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over the Arkansas Razorbacks, as the Bulldogs fall into several of my best systems, including ones with records of 281-195, 124-59, 96-34 and 93-24 ATS.  Sam Pittman's Razorbacks upset Texas A&M last Saturday in Arlington (for their 4th straight win and cover), but will face a much stiffer test on Saturday in Athens.  The #2-ranked Bulldogs have given up just 23 points and 278 rushing yards (2.29 ypr) in their four games this season, including a total of 2 yards rushing vs. #25-ranked Clemson.  That doesn't bode well for an Arkansas offense which wants to run the football 70% of the time.  The Razorbacks are averaging just 21 pass attempts per game (compared to 47 runs).  Georgia, on the other hand, has a more balanced offense, and throws the ball 43% of the time.  The Bulldogs whitewashed Vanderbilt, 62-0, in Nashville, last week.  And NCAA teams off 50-point road wins have covered 74% of conference games over the last 42 years.  Meanwhile, NCAA teams (like Arkansas) off back-to-back wins, and 4 ATS wins have covered just 33% as underdogs of 14+ points since 1980.  Arkansas is also 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS as a .500 (or better) team getting 17+ points.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Georgia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Duke.  North Carolina began its season as the 10th-ranked team in the country, but has stumbled to a 2-2 record.  Its only wins have com at home, where it defeated Georgia State, 59-17, and Virginia, 59-39.  On the road, the Heels are 0-2, with losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  So, the good news for UNC fans is that the Tar Heels are back in Chapel Hill on Saturday to take on the Duke Blue Devils, who are riding a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  Unfortunately for Duke, over the last 35 years, underdogs of more than 19 points, off 3 ATS wins, have covered just 40.9% of the time.  Additionally, North Carolina is 20-6 ATS at home off a road loss by 17+ points.  Lay the points with the Tar Heels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Bengals went into the Steel City, and upset Pittsburgh, 24-10, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, the Bengals are a horrid 0-11 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points off a division win by more than 6 points.  The Jaguars are off to an 0-3 start in the Urban Meyer era, and each loss has been by double-digits.  But we'll step in and take the Jags as a big road underdog in this Nationally Televised game.  Over the years, the league's worst teams have stepped up when the spotlight was on, as teams with a win percentage less than .200 are 15-4 ATS as underdogs of more than 7 points on Monday/Thursday night games.  Even better:  winless road underdogs are 212-152-6 ATS in non-division games, including 16-5 ATS if they were off three straight double-digit defeats.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Buccaneers come into this game off a blowout, 48-25 win over Atlanta.  That was also the 10th straight win by the Buccaneers dating back to last season.  But defending Super Bowl champs have struggled off blowout wins by 20+ points, and especially on the road vs. non-division foes, as they've covered just 34.3% over the last 42 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Tom Brady & Co. on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that NFL road favorites, off back to back wins, in which they scored more than 30 points, have covered just 48 of 125 vs. non-division foes.  Take the Rams as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Raiders come into this game off back-to-back upset wins to start the season.  And they've been installed as a home favorite over Miami, which was shutout last week by Buffalo, 35-0.  We'll play on the Dolphins to bounce back in this game, as .500 (or better) single-digit road underdogs are 91-59 ATS in regular season, non-division games since 1980 after failing to cover the spread by more than 14 points in their previous game.  Even better:  the Raiders have been huge money-burners as favorites, as they're 20-39-1 ATS their last 60 as chalk, including 10-33-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a winning ATS record.  The Dolphins are 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS off a loss.  And they're 17-6 ATS their last 23 games as an underdog.  Take Miami + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Denver Broncos.  This is the only match-up this week which pits a 2-0 SU/ATS team vs. an 0-2 SU/ATS team.  Many bettors might rush to the side of the Broncos, given that they will be playing their home opener off two impressive road wins to start the season.  But 2-0 NFL teams have only covered 28% as home favorites over the last 42 years vs. foes off to an 0-2 SU/ATS start!  And home favorites playing their home opener after starting the season with 2 (or more) road games have also been horrible, as they've gone 8-23-2 ATS since 2005 (and 39-61-3 ATS since 1980).  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New York Giants.  Atlanta has opened the 2021 season with back to back blowout losses -- by 26 to Philly, and by 23 to Tampa Bay.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Falcons here, as a small road underdog.  But consider that, in Week 3, NFL teams that lost their first two games each by 9+ points, and also failed to cover the spread in each game by 9+ points, have covered 70.9% as an underdog in Week 3.  The Giants have covered just one of their last eight games as a non-division favorite.  And they're 25-37-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. non-division foes off a loss, including 4-15-1 ATS when favored by 3 points or less.  Take Atlanta.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Football Team over the Buffalo Bills.  We played on the Bills last week, as it was a perfect "bounce-back" spot following their upset loss in Week 1, as the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  And Buffalo rewarded us with a 35-0 victory.  Unfortunately, NFL teams off shutout wins have covered just 73 of 181 games vs. .333 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including just 3-23 ATS if our 'play-against' team (here, Buffalo) scored 35+ points in its shutout victory.  Grab the points with Washington.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  The Colts should be starting QB Carson Wentz this afternoon, and that's enough for us to pull the trigger on Indianapolis as a road underdog.  Indianapolis has a brutal opening schedule this season (the hardest in the NFL), with its first five games against teams with winning records last season (Seahawks, Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens).  The only other team to even come close to this difficult of an opening schedule is the Raiders, who opened with three teams that had winning records last season (Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins).  So, one shouldn't necessarily over-react to the fact that the Colts are 0-2 to start the season.  They'll play their first division contest of 2021 this afternoon when they travel to Nashville to take on the 1-1 Titans, who upset Seattle, 33-30, as a 6.5-point road underdog last week.  Unfortunately for Tennessee, teams off big upset wins over superior teams generally have letdowns when matched up against inferior teams in their next game, as they cover only 40.8% of the time since 1980.  And Tennessee has historically been a poor favorite, as it's 32-53-2 ATS when laying more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, Indy is 44-21 ATS off a loss, including 23-8-1 ATS on the road.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over West Virginia.  The #4-ranked Sooners have sandwiched two point spread losses around a 76-0 blowout of Western Carolina.  They'll look to play much better in this -- their Big 12 opener -- than they did last week against Nebraska.  The Sooners were favored by 23 in that game, yet won by just seven, 23-16.  But .500 (or better) Big 12 home favorites of more than 5 points have cashed 64% over the last 42 seasons after failing to cover by more than 14 points in their previous game.  And Oklahoma also falls into a 63% ATS system of mine which plays on certain undefeated teams off ATS defeats.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Oklahoma.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Florida.  Last week, the Gators came within two points of upsetting #1-ranked Alabama.  Now, they're favored by a bunch against Tennessee -- a team they've defeated 15 of the last 16 meetings -- but it's a classic letdown spot.  We'll grab the points with the Volunteers, as Florida tends to not bounce back at home vs. SEC foes if Florida lost its previous game.  The Gators are a horrid 9-24-1 ATS in this situation.  Moreover, this is Tennessee's conference opener.  And SEC road underdogs have gone 65-37-1 ATS in their conference opener, provided their opponent wasn't playing with revenge from a loss the previous season.  Take Tennessee + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  Jim Harbaugh has his troops off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start after crushing Northern Illinois, 63-10, last Saturday.  That was the 2nd highest point total by a Wolverines team in the coach Harbaugh era, bettered only by a 78-0 win over these Scarlet Knights in 2016.  Like Michigan, Rutgers is also off to a 3-0 start this season, and is also undefeated ATS.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams that are undefeated -- both SU and ATS -- with a 2-0 (or better) SU/ATS record have burned money as underdogs of +11 (or more) points, as they've covered just 41.2% over the last 42 seasons.  And undefeated teams, off 35-point (or greater) home wins the previous week, have cashed 60% of conference home games since 1980.  Take Michigan to rout Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Iowa State.  Baylor comes into this game with an undefeated, 3-0 record, after blowing out Kansas last week, 45-7.  For the season, Baylor's outscoring its foes by 35.33 ppg, and that bodes well for it as a home dog on Saturday.  Indeed, over the last 42 seasons, home dogs of +2 (or more) points have covered 67.9% vs. unrested foes, if our home dog's scoring margin was 32+ points per game!  Even better:  Big 12 home underdogs off back to back wins have gone 31-10 ATS in the regular season vs. unrested conference foes not off an ATS loss.  Take Baylor.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Colorado State.  The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU/ATS to start the season, and will welcome the Rams to Iowa City on Saturday afternoon.  Colorado State did upset Toledo, 22-6, as a 14.5-point underdog last week, but I don't expect lightning to strike twice in successive weeks.  Indeed, NCAA teams are 0-27 SU and 9-17-1 ATS as road dogs of more than 13 points, if they won outright as a road dog of more than 13 points the previous week (including 1-10 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins).  And Iowa is a reliable 21-1 SU and 17-5 ATS when favored by more than 21 points vs. non-conference foes.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles over Louisville.  The Seminoles have gotten off to an 0-3 start after succumbing, 35-14, at Wake Forest last Saturday.  But we'll take FSU in this match-up against a Louisville team coming into Tallahassee off an upset home win over UCF.  Indeed, NCAA teams are 1-22-1 ATS away from home vs. the Seminoles after winning ATS at home in their previous game, if Florida State was off an ATS loss.  Take Mike Norvell's Seminoles to get into the win column.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Western Michigan.  Both of these teams enter Saturday's game off road wins.  The Spartans went out to Honolulu, and dispatched the Rainbow Warriors, 17-13, while Western Michigan shocked Pittsburgh, 44-41, as a two touchdown underdog.  Each team now stands at 2-1 on the season.  Dating back to November 2017, the Spartans are a fantastic 21-11-2 ATS, while the Broncos are 12-20 ATS.  And Western Michigan is also an awful 1-12 ATS off a point spread cover by 10+ points.  Finally, over the last 42 years, home teams have covered just 32.7% off an upset non-conference win as a road dog of +7 (or more) points, if they were matched up against another non-conference opponent in their current game.  Take the Spartans.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Wake Forest.  Last week, the Cavaliers were blown out, 59-39, by the North Carolina Tar Heels, while Wake Forest thrashed Florida State, 35-14.  But off those results, we'll take the Cavaliers to rebound on Friday, as they fall into a 99-49 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in conference games off double-digit conference losses the previous week.  Moreover, the Cavaliers are 19-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS their last 21 home games.  And they're 8-0 ATS their last eight at home (and 20-6-1 ATS their last 27 home games) when not favored by 7+ points.  Take Virginia to rout the Demon Deacons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State.  Last week, Marshall was stunned, 42-38, as a 10.5-point home favorite by East Carolina.  But I love Marshall to rebound tonight in Boone, as Conference USA teams have cashed 57% in non-conference road games off an upset home loss.  These two schools met last season in Huntington, and the Herd upset the Mountaineers, 17-7, as a 6.5-point home underdog.  They are once again installed as an underdog, and we'll grab the points with Marshall on Thursday.  Indeed, Sun Belt conference teams are a horrible 32-67 ATS when favored against a non-conference foe, if that foe didn't own a losing record (including 0-11 ATS their last 11 as a home favorite, priced from -2.5 to -12.5).  That doesn't bode well for Appalachian State on Thursday night.  Nor does the fact that Marshall is a fantastic 11-1-1 ATS its last 13, and 16-5-1 ATS its last 21 in non-conference games when off a straight-up loss, and not favored by more than 3 points.  Finally, App State is a wallet-busting 3-14 ATS at home off a win, when playing an opponent which doesn't own a winning ATS record.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Detroit.  Last week, Aaron Rodgers played one of the worst games of his storied career.  The Packers were favored by 3.5 points against New Orleans, yet only scored three in a blowout loss by 35 points.  But one of the things I often like to do is play on teams that scored less points in an upset loss than they were actually favored by, as those teams have bounced back in their next game much more often than not.  Even better:  Green Bay is a jaw-dropping 34-6 ATS its last 40 (and 10-0 ATS its last 10) with Rodgers at QB, following a game in which it scored less than 23 points!  And Green Bay is also an awesome 50-21-1 ATS in Rodgers' starts when favored by less than 13 points against a foe off an ATS win, including 10-1 ATS if the Packers were upset in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Ravens were upset, in overtime, by Las Vegas, while Kansas City eked out a 4-point win over a very good Browns team.  The good news for the Ravens is that NFL home teams off a upset road loss have cashed 60.3% since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And Baltimore has cashed 76.4% as an underdog over the last 42 years off an upset loss, when matched-up against a non-division foe off a SU win.  Take the Ravens + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Last week, the Dolphins were out-yarded, 393-259, by New England, but benefited from two fumbles by the Patriots to escape with a 17-16 upset win.  This week, they'll take on a Bills team which is no doubt smarting from its 23-16 upset home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday.  And the Bills also had tough luck, as they out-yarded the Steelers, 371 to 252, but lost the turnover battle (and the war).  Over the last 42 seasons, Game 2 road teams off upset losses have cashed 61% vs. foes off upset wins.  Even better:  Buffalo's 13-2 ATS vs. the Dolphins, if Miami was off an upset win in its previous game.  And the Bills are 33-13-1 ATS off a loss, if their opponent was off an upset win.  Take Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Houston pulled off one of Week 1's biggest shockers when they upset Jacksonville, 37-21, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for Houston, double-digit road underdogs, off a double-digit upset win at home, have covered just 32.2% over the past 42 NFL seasons, including just 23% vs. a foe off a point spread win.  Take Cleveland to rout the Texans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last week, the Saints routed Green Bay, which was the #1 NFC seed in the previous season's playoffs.  But NFL road favorites (or PK) that upset an opponent in Week 1, which won 10+ games the previous games, have generally had a letdown in Week 2, as they've cashed just 38% since 1980.  Take the Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Brigham Young.  BYU notched a huge, emotional win last Saturday, when it defeated its Beehive State rival, Utah, 26-17, as a 7-point underdog.  That moved BYU's record to 2-0 on the season.  But .800 (or better) NCAA home underdogs (or PK) have covered just 16% over the past 42 years off an upset, non-conference home win.  And the Cougars have covered just 6 of 22 off an upset win, when they were matched up against an opponent off a SU win.  Take Arizona State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Stanford.  David Shaw's Cardinal pulled off a massive upset last weekend, as they went into the Coliseum, and upset USC, 42-28, as an 18-point underdog.  And they did more than just win the game.  They also got USC head coach Clay Helton fired!  Stanford will now travel east to Nashville to play the Vanderbilt Commodores, who also pulled off a road upset win last week, when they went into Fort Collins, and upended the Colorado State Rams, 24-21.  This is a big letdown spot for Stanford, as this non-conference road game is sandwiched in between conference games vs. USC and UCLA.  For technical support, consider that Pac-12 teams have covered just 15.3% since 1980 as a non-conference road favorite after a SU/ATS conference win, if they also have a Pac-12 conference game on deck.  Take Vanderbilt as a big home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Mississippi State.  We played on the Bulldogs last Saturday as a home underdog vs. NC State.  And Mike Leach's men got the $$$ vs. NC State.  But off that home upset win, we will fade Miss State on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1980, SEC Conference teams are a horrible 30.4% ATS in their first road game of the season, if they're off back to back home wins.  Take the home dog Memphis Tigers + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Tulsa.  We played against the Buckeyes last Saturday, and easily got the $$$ with Oregon, which upset Ohio State, 35-28, as a 14.5-point road underdog.  This Saturday, we'll switch gears, and lay the points with Ohio State, which is 28-12 ATS off a SU loss  Take Ohio State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Washington State.  The Trojans lost more than a conference game last Saturday.  They also lost their head coach, Clay Helton, as he was summarily fired on Tuesday by Mike Bohn, the school's athletic director.  So, USC's cornerbacks coach, Donte Williams, will assume the head role for the remainder of the season.  And Williams' first game will be this week at Washington State.  The Trojans are a superb 39-19-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 15-3-1 ATS on the Pac-12 road.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Virginia Tech.  The Mountaineers had a breather last Saturday, as Long Island visited Morgantown, and were annihilated by WVU, 66-0.  The Hokies will now pay a visit to Morgantown, after going 2-0 SU/ATS at home to start their 2021 season.  Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, NCAA teams off back-to-back SU/ATS home wins to start their seasons, are a horrible 30.7% ATS since 1980 in Game 3 when not getting more than 4 points, and also matched up against an opponent off a win.  Moreover, NCAA teams have cashed 79% at home since 1992 off a win by more than 56 points, when matched up against a winning, non-conference foe.  Take the Mountaineers.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Cincinnati.  Indiana lost its season opener, but bounced back last Saturday with a blowout win over Idaho, 56-14.  The Hoosiers have been installed as a home underdog in this game against the #8-ranked Bearcats, which bodes well for Tom Allen's men.  Indeed, since 1980, .500 (or worse) underdogs off a 40+ point win have covered 63.3% vs. opponents also off a win.  Moreover, dating back to Sept 28, 2019, Indiana is now 8-2 ATS its last 10 as an underdog.  And it's 23-11 ATS off a straight-up win, when priced from +10 to -27 points.  Finally, Cincinnati is a wallet-breaking 15-27 ATS as a road favorite priced from -2.5 to -12 points.  Take the Hoosiers as a home dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers come into this road game off back to back home wins over Fordham and Buffalo.  But in their lone road game this season, they were soundly beaten by Illinois, 30-22, as a 7-point favorite.  They'll now be tasked with going into Norman to take on a juggernaut Oklahoma team coming off a 76-0 whitewash of Western Carolina.  We'll lay the points with the Sooners, as the 'Huskers have covered just 20 of 57 games away from home off a double-digit home win.  Even better:  NCAA home favorites of 35 points or less (or PK) have cashed 70.2% of non-conference games since 1980 off a win by 60+ points.  Lay the points with the Sooners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last season, the Raiders were a .500 ball club, and missed the playoffs, while Baltimore went 11-5, and reached the Divisional round of the playoffs.  Over the years, it's been unprofitable to back playoff teams from the previous season in Game 1, if they were matched up against non-playoff teams.  This is the 4th of such meetings this season, and the point spread result of the first three (Cowboys over Bucs, Cardinals over Titans, and Chargers over Football Team) all went the way of the team which failed to make the playoffs last season.  And when such Game 1 meetings have occurred on Monday Night Football, our non-playoff teams have gone 14-6 ATS.  That bodes well for Las Vegas today.  As does the fact that Vegas is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 Monday Night games, and 16-11 ATS as a non-division home dog of +4 (or more) points, while Baltimore is a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a non-division road favorite priced at -4 (or more) points.  Take the Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  When these two AFC East division rivals last met, the Dolphins pounded the Patriots, 22-12, as a 2-point home underdog.  That defeat prevented Bill Belichick's men from having their 20th consecutive winning season.  With revenge on their mind, I expect the Patriots to make a statement here, at home.  Indeed, New England is 20-4 ATS when playing with revenge against a division opponent which upset it in the previous meeting.  And it's also 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings at home vs. Miami, and 16-5-3 ATS in its home openers when priced from -3 to -10 points.  Lay the points with New England. 

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the New York Giants.  This past preseason, the Giants failed to win a game.  And that doesn't bode well for New York in this season opener, as NFL teams have gone 7-24 ATS their last 31 season openers after going winless in the preseason.  Even worse:  New York is 3-14 ATS its last 17 as a single-digit home underdog, including 0-8 ATS its last eight vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, Denver is 16-9-1 ATS in its season-openers vs. non-division opponents, and it's 19-12 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points.  Ultimately, this will be a difficult match-up for Daniel Jones, who will be without injured TE Evan Engram as an option.  Denver's secondary is going to give New York's receivers fits.  With guys like Callahan, Surtain and Fuller, the Broncos will contain Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.  The Giants will no doubt lean heavily on Saquon Barkley this afternoon, but he is coming off major surgery, and could be on a snap count.  All in all, Denver has a clear advantage in this match-up, and should win the game going away.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our AFC South Game of the Month is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Last season, the Jaguars won just one game (which enabled them to draft QB Trevor Lawrence in the Draft), while Houston wasn't much better at 4-12.  But the fact that the Jaguars are favored on the road in this season opener should tell you what most expect from the Texans this season (and it isn't much).  Last year, Houston won both meetings vs. the Jaguars.  Unfortunately, NFL teams have covered just 36% in Game 1 over the last 31 years if their opponent was a double-revenging division rival.  Take Jacksonville to blow out Houston on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Falcons have dominated their home openers over the years, as they're 17-5 ATS their last 22.  And this is a good set-up for the homestanding team, given Philadelphia's road woes, of late (0-6 SU/ATS last six).  Both teams will be breaking in new head coaches:  Arthur Smith in Atlanta, and Nick Sirianni in Phiily.  But Smith has the huge benefit of having a much more experienced quarterback in Matt Ryan.  And Ryan will be able to pick apart the Eagles' shaky secondary this afternoon, as I expect Calvin Ridley to torment Eagles CB Darius Slay.  And rookie TE Kyle Pitts also should be in for a big afternoon in his NFL debut, as the Eagles don't have anyone who can stay with him.  The Falcons are a solid 30-16-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 points when they didn't own a losing record.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over North Carolina State.  Both of these teams come into this game in Starkville off season-opening wins last week.  But how they reached those wins was vastly different.  NC State blew out South Florida, 45-0, as a 20-point home favorite.  In contrast, Mississippi State had to storm back from a 20 point, 4th quarter deficit to eke out a 35-34 win against Louisiana Tech.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the Bulldogs as a short home underdog on Saturday night.  But the Wolfpack are a wallet-busting 13-33 ATS on the road in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 8 points.  And Game 2 road favorites, off a double-digit home win the previous week, have cashed just 34.4% of non-conference games vs. winning opposition, dating back 32 seasons.  Finally, Mississippi State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in non-conference games at home, off a win, when not favored by 7+ points.  Grab the points with Mike Leach's Bulldogs on this Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over Liberty.  Troy smashed Southern U., 55-3, last Saturday, and has been installed as a home underdog vs. Liberty in this game.  The Flames went 10-1 last season, but this is their road opener for 2021.  And NCAA teams have cashed just 32.5% in their road openers if they won 87+ percent of their games the previous season, and were not favored by 7 or more points in the current game.  Take Troy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Penn State.  The Cardinals have been extremely profitable over the last 16 seasons when installed as an underdog of +3 (or more) points in regular season non-conference games, as they're 23-6 ATS.  And I love this situation on Saturday, as it's a potential scheduling "flat spot" for the Nittany Lions, as Penn State defeated then-No. 12-ranked Wisconsin last week, and has #25-ranked Auburn on deck.  Grab the points with Ball State.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders + the points over Virginia Tech.  Rick Stockstill's Blue Raiders blew out Monmouth last Saturday, 50-15, as an 8.5-point home favorite.  And they've now been installed as a big road underdog in Blacksburg against the Hokies.  We'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee, as underdogs of +14 (or more) points have gone 108-67 ATS in non-conference games off a win by more than 30 points in their previous game.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies shocked Georgia Tech in Atlanta last week, as they won, 22-21, as a 19-point road underdog.  But when you look through the final score to the stats, you'll notice that Georgia Tech actually out-yarded Northern Illinois 429 to 301.  The Huskies have been installed as a home underdog in this non-conference tilt vs. Wyoming.  Unfortunately for Thomas Hammock's Huskies, home dogs have covered just 29.4% over the last 32 seasons off an upset win as a 14-point (or greater) underdog, when matched up against a non-conference opponent off a SU win.  And Wyoming is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 vs. foes off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Ohio State.  Both of these teams come into Columbus off wins to start the 2021 season.  Oregon downed Fresno St., 31-24, while Ohio State went into Minneapolis and defeated the Golden Gophers, 45-31.  The fact that Oregon struggled last week in its 7-point win will keep many bettors away from the Ducks this week.  It shouldn't.  Indeed, Game 2 non-conference underdogs of +20 or less points (or PK) have covered 66.1% over the last 32 seasons after failing to cover the spread in their opener against a non-conference foe, if they were now matched up against an opponent off a double-digit win.  Even better:  the Ducks are 44-31-2 ATS their last 77 off a point spread loss, including 19-11-1 ATS on the road.  And, finally, Pac-12 teams with a winning record have gone 45-19-1 ATS as an underdog vs. Big 10 foes.  Take Oregon + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Illinois.  The Illini kicked off the Bret Bielema era with a 30-22 upset win over Nebraska, and will look to make it 2-in-a-row for their new head coach.  On Saturday night, Texas-San Antonio will come into Champaign, and it will look to continue the success it had last season (7-5 SU and 7-4 ATS).  Even better, the Roadrunners are 10-3 ATS their last 13 in the underdog role, while Illinois is a nasty 27-46 ATS its last 73 as a favorite (compared to 11-7 its last 18 as an underdog).  And since 1980, Big 10 Conference teams have covered just 31% of their non-conference games off an upset conference win.  Take Texas San Antonio + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on February 7, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Kansas City.  These two teams played here, in Tampa, back in late November.  And the Chiefs won a 27-24 game, as a 3.5-point road favorite.  But that was the last game the Buccaneers have lost, as they've ripped off seven straight wins to reach the Super Bowl.  And they'll have the unusual benefit of playing the game in their home stadium, which will be the first time in Super Bowl history that a team has played the game in its home stadium (though others have played in their home region before).  The most impressive thing about Tampa's path to this game is that it had to win all three playoff games on the road.  And the Bucs scored 30+ points in each of their Playoff wins.  The win vs. Green Bay was especially impressive given that the Packers hadn't allowed an opponent to score more than 28 points at Lambeau Field in their previous 15 games.  The Chiefs, by virtue of their #1 seed, had a much easier path to this title game.  They played through an injury to Patrick Mahomes in their 5-point win over the Cleveland Browns.  And then they played, perhaps, their best game of the season when they routed a very good Buffalo Bills squad, 38-24, in the AFC Championship game.  Unfortunately, though, for Kansas City, NFL teams are a soft 23-37-1 ATS on the road after scoring 35+ points at home in their previous game.  And, even worse, in non-division match-ups between winning teams, favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) are a woeful 20-47-1 ATS away from home vs. revenge-minded clubs.  Certainly, Kansas City is the league's most dangerous offensive team, with Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce.  It averages 29.6 ppg, which is in line with last year's title-winning club (29.8 ppg).  But the Chiefs' defense dropped off a little this season, as it's giving up 22.38 ppg, which ranks as the 6th-worst such mark of the 82 teams over the past 41 seasons.  And that doesn't bode well for Kansas City, as NFL teams are 0-8 ATS in Super Bowls when priced from -2.5 to -6 points, if they give up 18+ points on defense.  Finally, Tom Brady's teams have gone 18-5 ATS when playing with revenge, and not favored by more than 1 point, including 6-0 ATS the last six at home, or on a neutral field.  Grab the points with Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills to go 'over' the total.  This play is largely technical in nature, as it falls into two very good Playoff totals systems of mine that are 33-15 and 73-38 since 1991.  And we'll look for a high-scoring game regardless of who is under center for Kansas City on Sunday.  For further technical support, consider that the Chiefs are 19-12 'over' the total in games after both they and their opponent went 'under' in their previous games, while Playoff games have sailed 'over' the total 62% since 1980 when the line was greater than 53 points, and the two teams averaged a combined 59+ points on offense.  Finally, NFL Conference Championship games have gone 'over' 63% when the line was greater than 46 points.  Take the Bills and Chiefs to go over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Tampa Bay.  Two weeks ago, in the Wild Card round, we played on the Rams to upset Seattle as our #1 Side Play in the opening round of the Playoffs.  Then, last week, we tabbed Green Bay over the Rams as our top Side play in the quarterfinals.  For the semi-finals, we'll once again take the Packers as our #1 play, and go against a Buccaneers team playing its 3rd straight road game.  Last Saturday, the Ravens also were saddled with their 3rd straight road game, and they were annihilated by Buffalo, 17-3.  In the NFL Playoffs, since 1980, teams playing their 3rd straight game on the road are a woeful 22-40-3 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Tampa Bay at Lambeau.  And neither does the fact that Green Bay is an awesome 11-0 ATS with Aaron Rodgers under center, if the Packers weren't favored by 13+ points, and their opponent was off a point spread win, and playing their 2nd straight road game.  Of course, it's true that Tampa Bay handed the Packers their worst loss of the seasons -- a 38-10 trouncing.  But Green Bay has gone 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS with Rodgers at QB, when playing with revenge, and favored between -2 and -7 points. Take the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over New Orleans.  This is a big revenge game for Tom Brady & Co., as they were blown out, 38-3, at home in the previous meeting.  We played on New Orleans in that game, but will take Tampa Bay this evening.  For technical support, consider that revenge-minded teams that lost by 30+ points earlier in the season, have gone 6-0 ATS as single-digit underdogs.  Even better:  Tom Brady's a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 13+ points, and 11-1 SU/ATS his last 12 games vs. division rivals when playing with revenge (regardless of the margin of defeat).  And, finally, NFC South division teams have gone 10-0 ATS since 2003 when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season.  Take Tampa Bay + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Cleveland.  Last week, the Browns won their biggest game in decades when they went into Pittsburgh, and upset their rivals, 48-37, as a 5-point underdog.  But off that huge win, we'll fade the Browns this afternoon.  In general, I prefer to go against teams off big offensive playoff wins.  And especially when such teams don't have great defenses to match their high-octane offenses.  And Cleveland does not.  The Browns are scoring 26.82 ppg this season, but also giving up the exact amount, on defense.  In contrast, Kansas City only gives up 22.62 ppg.  And to put the Browns' defense into context, consider that there have been just 6 NFL teams of 480 that made the playoffs over the last 41 seasons to have given up more than 26 points per game!  We'll go against Cleveland, as NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in their previous game are 0-11 ATS on the road if they didn't have a better defense than their opponent.  That doesn't bode well for Cleveland at Arrowhead this afternoon.   Nor does the fact that teams that covered the spread by more than 13 points the previous week have cashed just 16% in the Playoffs vs. defending Super Bowl champions.  And, finally, Andy Reid-coached teams have gone 67% ATS, including 6-2, 75% ATS in the Playoffs, when they were off a bye week, which gave Reid an extra week to prepare.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Buffalo/Baltimore game.  Last week, the Ravens were favored by 3.5 points against Tennessee, and won a low-scoring game, 20-13.  And that was the eighth straight Playoff game (and 10th of the last 11) where the Ravens went 'UNDER' the total as a favorite.  But when the Ravens have been installed as an underdog (as they are, here), then it's been a completely different story, as they've gone OVER in those games 6-3-1.  Likewise, the Bills have gone OVER 29-14-1 as a favorite (compared to 18-8 'under' as an underdog).  We'll take the OVER on Saturday night, as each of these teams average more than 28 points per game on offense.  And in match-ups between two teams that average 28+ points, NFL games have gone 'over' the total 61% of the time since 1985.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Green Bay/Los Angeles Rams game, as it falls into a 52-24 Totals system of mine.  This game has all the earmarks of a high-scoring game.  The Packers are averaging 31.8 ppg, and will be playing at home following a Bye week last weekend.  And high-octane NFL offenses that average more than 31 ppg have gone 'over' the total 23-11-1 since 1985 when playing at home in the Playoffs.  Moreover, in his career, Aaron Rodgers has gone 'over' the total 32-14 when the Packers were favored from -4.5 to -7 points, including 14-2 'over' their last 16.  And, with Rodgers at the helm, Green Bay has gone 'over' the total in 12 of 18 playoff games.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, January 11, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Alabama.  This selection certainly won't come as a surprise to anyone who joined us for our huge play on the Buckeyes + over Clemson.  In my discussion of that game, I highlighted that Ohio State was 13-0 ATS its last 13 as underdogs of more than 3 points.  Well, after its 49-28 blowout of Clemson, that mark is now 14-0 ATS its last 14.  Ohio State just destroyed Trevor Lawrence & Co., so why not Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, et al?  It's true that Alabama didn't play its best game vs. Notre Dame.  The Tide went up 28-7 on a Jones-to-Smith TD pass, with 4:58 left in the 3rd quarter, but never scored another TD.  They did tack on a 4th quarter field goal, but a late touchdown by Notre Dame rewarded Irish bettors.  I was one of those bettors, as I took Notre Dame + the large number.  And we'll grab the points here, as well.  For technical support, consider that .928 (or better) teams are 0-9 ATS in the post-season as a favorite of less than 13 points vs. foes off a momentum-building upset win.  Additionally, I love playing on bowl underdogs with good defenses, and strong rushing attacks.  This season, Ohio State's offensive YPR is 6.0, while Bama's is 5.1, and each gives up 3.2 YPR on defense.  The Buckeyes' relative Total YPR is +0.927.  With this as a backdrop, consider that Bowl underdogs of more than 4 points, with a powerful rushing attack that garners 6+ yards per rush, have cashed 89% in the bowls since 1993, while single-digit bowl underdogs have gone 123-83-3 ATS if their defense gave up 22 or less ppg, and their relative YPR (yards per rush) was better than their opponent's.  Take Ohio State + the points in the Championship game on Monday, Jan. 11.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Baltimore/Tennessee game.  The Titans have gone 12-3-1 'over' the total this season, including 3-0 'over' their last three, and 7-1 'over' their last eight.  The only game the Titans have played in the season's 2nd half which didn't go 'over' the total was their 31-10 victory over the offensively-challenged Jaguars (who averaged just 19.1 ppg this year).  But Tennessee will be playing the Ravens this Sunday afternoon.  And John Harbaugh's men have scored 29.25 ppg, including 37.2 ppg over their last five games.  For technical support, consider that, over the last 41 seasons, NFL teams that played 80+ percent of their games 'over' the total, have gone 'over' in their Playoff game 71% of the time.  Even better:  the Titans come into this game off a 41-38 win at Houston last Sunday.  And the Titans have now gone 'over' the total 10-0-1 off a win.  Finally, NFL Playoff games have gone 'over' the total 80% of the time over the past 20 years if a team's previous game totaled more than 76 points.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take the Ravens/Titans 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Washington Football Team + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Football Team was fortunate it played in the NFC (L)East division this season, as it qualified for the Playoffs with a 7-9 record.  But every team is 0-0 when the Playoffs start, so there's no reason Washington can't find success in this tournament.  And, historically, mediocre teams have done VERY WELL in the NFL Playoffs, provided they played AT HOME.  Indeed, sub-.560 NFL teams have gone 5-0-1 SU/ATS at home in the NFL playoffs, including outright wins as a +7.5-point underdog (Denver/Pitt, 2012) and as a +10-point home underdog (Seattle/N.O., 2011).  In contrast, on the road, such teams have covered just 5 of 20 games.  The Buccaneers erupted for 44 points last week, in a 17-point win over Atlanta.  Unfortunately, NFL playoff teams have gone 34-51 ATS away from home after scoring 35+ points in their previous game (against an opponent which didn't score 35+ points in its previous game).  And Tampa's opponent last week -- Atlanta -- had a defensive average of 24.66 ppg, so it wasn't surprising the Bucs were able to post a lot of points.  But Tampa has struggled this season vs. foes (like Washington) with defensive averages of less than 21 ppg, as it's 0-4 ATS (compared to 9-3 ATS vs. foes with defenses that gave up 21+ ppg).  Meanwhile, Washington has excelled vs. high-octane offenses (like Tampa's) that score at least 28 ppg, as it's 4-0 ATS (compared to 5-7 ATS vs. foes with offense that don't score 28+ ppg).  And the Football Team held those 4 explosive offenses to just 17.75 ppg.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  These two teams met just two weeks ago, and Seattle held the Rams to just 9 points, in a 20-9 win.  But playoff rematches of games involving a team which scored less than 10 points in the previous matchup have gone over the total 61% since 1980 due, in part, to that team's offense being much more productive in the Playoff game.  And .600 (or better) teams -- like the Rams -- that managed to score no more than 50 points combined over their three previous games, have gone 'over' the total 59-33, including over the total in 7 of 8 Playoff games!  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Seattle.  These two teams met two weeks ago in Seattle, and the Seahawks won, 20-9, as a 1.5-point home favorite.  The line for this game is slightly higher, given the injuries on the side of the Rams.  I like the underdog here, as revenge-minded NFL underdogs off a SU win have cashed 80% in the Wild Card round vs. division foes.  And the revenger in this NFC West division rivalry is 9-5 ATS, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog.  Even better:  the Rams own the superior defense, as it allows just 18.5 ppg (Seattle's defense allows 23.18).  And Playoff underdogs of +4 or less points, with a defense which rates at least 4.5 ppg better, have covered 71% over the last 41 years.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Washington.  The Eagles suffered an upset loss to Dallas last week, as they succumbed 37-17, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But off that defeat, we'll take Philly as a home underdog on Sunday night.  Indeed, over the past 36 years, NFL underdogs (or PK) off an upset loss by more than 10 points have gone 123-78-5 ATS vs. division rivals.  And the Football Team has covered just 59 of its last 158 games as a favorite, including 19 of 63 vs. division foes.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  It seems like ages ago, but the Jaguars won their first game of the season (and their ONLY game this season) when they upset the Colts in Week 1, as a big home underdog.  I expect the Colts to avenge that loss today with a big victory at home.  Indeed, favorites of more than 13 points have covered 86% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Colts minus the points.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Broncos have been terrific as home underdogs, or small favorites over the years.  And especially if their opponent wasn't off a momentum-building SU/ATS win.  In that instance, the Broncos have gone 31-7 ATS at home when not favored by 2+ points, including 21-1-2 ATS when matched up against an opponent with a .625 (or worse) record.  Meanwhile, the Raiders are a dismal 12-22 ATS in their final road game of the season, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite.  Take Denver to blow out Las Vegas.

At

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indianapolis Colts/Jacksonville Jaguars game.  This should be one of those games where the Colts can "name their score." Certainly, a blowout at half-time would not surprise.  And first-half blowouts often result in the leading team taking its foot off the gas in the 2nd half.  Dating back to 1985, NFL games with point spreads of 14+ points have gone 'under' the total 65.7% of the time in the season's final two weeks.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game.  These two teams met four weeks ago, and the Rams won a 38-28 shootout.  The line for that game was 55 points, so it sailed over the total by 11 points.  Yes, a lot of offensive pieces are missing for this game (e.g., Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, etc.), but the oddsmakers' movement of this number down to this level was a vast over-reaction.  The 'over' falls into a 28-7 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Kansas City will be resting most of its better players, so they have been installed as a home underdog today vs. its division rival, the LA Chargers.  We'll lay the points with the Chargers, as underdogs off 5+ wins -- like Kansas City -- are a wallet-breaking 13-33 ATS when installed as an underdog of 3+ points.  And defending Super Bowl champs are a poor 4-13 ATS off back to back wins, if they are an underdog vs. an opponent off a win, including 1-7 vs. division rivals.  Finally, road favorites have covered 63% over the previous 20 seasons in the final week of the season, if they owned a WORSE record than the home team.  Take the Chargers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants over the Dallas Cowboys.  Both of these NFC East division rivals have hopes of making the Playoffs.  And we'll take the homestanding Giants this afternoon.  It's true that Dallas has a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, while the NY Giants are on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But over the last 41 years, road favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) are an unsightly 25% ATS vs. foes that were on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak!  Even worse, the Cowboys are 0-16 ATS in their final road game of the season when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of less than 4 points!  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the under in the Minnesota/Detroit game.  Both of these also-rans have dismal defenses.  Minnesota gives up 29.3 ppg, while Detroit gives up 32.1 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game in this meaningless, final game of the season.  But final games of the NFL season that involve at least one team with a defense which give up 28+ points have gone 'under' 67.3% since 1981.  The 'under' also falls into 113-74 and 103-47 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Indiana.  The 4-5 Rebels have been installed as a huge underdog vs. Indiana, which finished #11 in the final CFP rankings, and #7 in the AP Poll.  And, by my numbers, it's an overlay.  It's true that Lane Kiffin's Rebels were upset at LSU to end their regular season.  And that may keep a number of bettors away from the Ole Miss side.  But teams off upset defeats have gone 65.8% ATS in the Bowls since 1981 if they were playing at a home or neutral site, and their opponent wasn't off an upset loss.  That bodes well for Ole Miss on Saturday.  As does the fact that SEC Conference underdogs of +3 (or more) points are a perfect 11-0 ATS in the post-season if they lost their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Grab the points with Ole Miss!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over North Carolina State.  The Wildcats were 4-6 on the season, while NC State was 8-3.  Yet Kentucky played the MUCH MORE difficult schedule (comprised wholly of SEC Conference foes), which is why it is favored by a small amount this afternoon.  Indeed, Kentucky's six losses were to such powers as Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri.  We'll take the team from the stronger conference, as SEC Conference teams are 73-47 ATS in the bowls when not laying 3+ points, or off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 3-12 ATS their last 15 away from home, including 0-6 ATS when the line was less than 7 points.  Take Kentucky to blow out NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Clemson.  The Buckeyes were provided a lot of bulletin board material from the words of Clemson coach, Dabo Swinney.  And I'm sure the Ohio State team wasn't happy to hear Swinney's thoughts.  But, at the end of the day, when the players take the field, those words stay behind on the bulletin board, and a team's success (or failure) will largely come down to execution.  And over the last decade, it's hard to find a team which is better at execution than three of the four teams in this NCAA Football semi-final (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State).  Those three programs have been heads-and-shoulders above their brethren for years.  And one of the lessons gleaned over the years is that you don't want to give ANY of these team points -- regardless of the talent on the other side.  To wit:  the Buckeyes are 15-3 ATS their last 18 as underdogs, including 13-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points!  (Likewise, Alabama is 12-7-1 ATS its last 20 as an underdog, and Clemson is 33-13 its last 46 as a dog.)  Last year, of course, when these two teams met in the semifinal round, Ohio State did suffer a rare ATS defeat as an underdog (one of the Buckeyes' three ATS losses of their last 18 as underdogs).  But Ohio State was only getting 2.5 in that game.  And it only lost by six.  So, if it was getting the number of points as it is in tonight's game, then it would have covered.  So, yes, Clemson has the much better quarterback, and the better overall team.  But so did most of the last 13 opponents the Buckeyes faced when they were installed as an underdog greater than 3 points.  And Ohio State still managed to cover the spread in each of them.  The bottom line is that there's too much success on the side of the Buckeyes as an underdog (or with any of the NCAA blue bloods) to lay a significant amount of points to them.  Now, it's also true that Ohio State struggled in the Big 10 Championship game vs. Northwestern, and mustered just 22 points in a 12-point win (as a 16.5-point favorite).  But the Buckeyes are a fantastic 53-25 ATS after scoring 24 or less points in their previous game.  Take Ohio State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Alabama.  The Irish come into this game off a blowout loss at the hands of Clemson, 34-10.  That was Notre Dame's first loss of the season.  And one of the things I love to do in the Bowls is take teams that haven't lost more than 1 time on the season, if they're an underdog, and off an ATS defeat.  Since 1980, these teams have covered 61.2% in the Bowls.  Additionally, big Bowl underdogs of +16 (or more) points have covered 70% over the past 41 years.  And Bowl teams with defenses that give up 21 or less points have gone 64-37 ATS off a SU loss, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Irish + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Georgia.  The Bearcats are giving up just 16 points per game, and have yet to taste defeat on the season.  And that bodes well for the Bearcats as, in the Bowls, .680 (or better) teams have covered 65.3% over the last 41 years, if they surrendered, on average, less points than their opponent, and were getting 7+ points in the game.  Moreover,  SEC Conference teams have covered just five of 19 Bowls when installed as a favorite, if they won their previous game before the Bowl season.  And American Athletic Conference teams off a SU win have gone 43-22 ATS vs. non-conference foes with a scoring margin of +13 (or better), including 8-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +13.5 points.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over San Jose State.  Both teams come into this game off big upset wins in their respective conference championship game.  Ball State claimed the Mid-American Conference title with a 38-28 upset of Buffalo, as 12-point underdogs.  And that was Ball State's sixth straight win, and fourth straight ATS win.  Likewise, the undefeated (7-0) Spartans won the Mountain West Conference for the first time in their history when they upset Boise State, 34-20, as a 6.5-point underdog in the title game.  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) Mountain West favorites have been dreadful vs. .500 (or better) non-conference foes when both teams entered the game off a SU win, as the Mountain West has cashed just 25 of 80 games.  That doesn't bode well for San Jose today.  Nor does the fact that bowl favorites of more than 6 points have gone 0-6 ATS off an upset win in their conference title game.  Or that .850 (or better) bowl underdogs of +7 (or more) points have cashed 69% in the bowls since 1980 against foes off SU/ATS wins.  But the clincher is that .800 (or better) bowl teams off an upset win (like Ball State) have gone 12-0 ATS their last 12 when not favored by more than 4 points.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Thursday, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Tulsa.  Mike Leach has always been one of my favorite football coaches, with his Air Raid offenses at Texas Tech and Washington State.  This was his first year in Starkville and, although his 3-7 season was his worst since Washington State's 3-9 record in 2014, he was able to lead the Bulldogs to their 11th straight Bowl appearance.  Miss State will face the 6-2 Golden Hurricane, which bookended two losses against Oklahoma State (in their season opener) and Cincinnati (in the AAC Championship game) with a six-game win streak in the middle.  And Tulsa was 7-1 ATS, and covered by an average of 10.5 ppg.  But Leach has been at his best when matched up against opponents with much better records, as he's gone 16-4-1 ATS vs. foes that owned a win percentage at least 40% better than his team, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS if that foe covered the spread for the season by at least 10 ppg.  Even worse for Tulsa:  teams that lost their conference title game have gone 10-25 ATS in their next game against foes that did not lose a title game, including 1-10 ATS when priced as a favorite of 7 or less points!  Finally, the American Athletic Conference has not had great success vs. the SEC, as its teams have gone 1-5 ATS in the Bowls, and 1-9 ATS their last 10 away from home (including a 23-0 loss by Tulsa at Arkansas two seasons ago).  Meanwhile, the SEC has gone 8-1 ATS its last nine as Bowl underdogs.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Wisconsin.  Wake Forest ended its season with back to back losses to North Carolina and Louisville.  But both of those were road games; the Demon Deacons were 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at home, or on neutral fields this season.  And NCAA teams have gone 34-20 ATS in the Bowls if they lost their last two games away from home to end their season.  Meanwhile, the Badgers ended on an 0-4 ATS run, and they lost three of their last four straight-up.  It's hard to make a case for laying points with Wisconsin, as .666 (or worse) teams have been historically poor in the Bowls when laying more than 7 points (33-61-2 ATS).  And Bowl teams off 4 ATS losses have gone 13-26-1 ATS when priced from +3 to -13 points.  Take Wake Forest + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Miami Hurricanes over the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Miami was annihilated in its last game, an embarrassing 36-point upset loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys blew out Baylor, 42-3.  On the surface, it may look easy to play on Okie State given the results of the two teams' most recent games.  But consider that teams off a loss by 23+ points have actually covered 71% in the post-season over the past 41 years when matched up against an opponent off a 23+ point victory, including 7-0 ATS their last seven when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 3 points.  Moreover, Miami's an awesome 12-0 ATS away from home off a loss when it was an underdog of +10 or less points , and its opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Hurricanes in the Cheez-It Bowl.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Los Angeles Chargers/Denver Broncos game.  These two 5-9 teams are playing out the string at this point after having a disappointing season.  Last week, Denver was routed by Buffalo, 48-19, while the Chargers won, 30-27, in overtime against Las Vegas.  However, but for the overtime session, the Chargers game would have gone 'under' the total, which would have been its fourth straight 'under.'  We'll play on the 'under' in this penultimate game of the season, as the Chargers have gone under 79-33-1 at home vs. division rivals, including each of the last seven vs. the Broncos.  Even better: NFL games with O/U lines of 45+ points have gone 'under' 58.2% if one team's most recent game totaled more than 65 points, while its opponent's most recent game totaled 55+ points.  Finally, the 'under' also falls into a 129-77 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over Indianapolis.  After streaking out to an 11-0 record, the Steelers have dropped each of their last three games.  But the last two were both on the road, so I expect the Steelers to rebound at home this afternoon.  Indeed, since Dec. 20, 1981, winning teams have covered 69.0% at home, if they lost their two previous games on the road, and were favored by less than 10 points (or PK).  Take the Steelers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals seemingly did the Jaguars a favor when the upset the Steelers to move the Jaguars into the pole position to draft Clemson's star QB, Trevor Lawrence.  Of course, if the Jaguars upset the Bears this afternoon, those future plans would likely be dashed.  On the surface, it certainly looks like a tall task.  After all, the Jaguars have lost 13 straight games, while Chicago is making a late push for the playoffs.  But there's great risk in laying a lot of points with the Bears.  They have a negative scoring margin for the season.  And NFL teams with negative scoring margins are a horrid 1-19 ATS their last 20 on the road, when favored by 7+ points, at Game 6 forward, vs. an opponent not off a win.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and NY Giants to go OVER the total.  Lamar Jackson & Co. have now scored 34, 47 and 40 points in their last three games.  Not surprisingly, each went 'over' the total.  And that's the way we will look in this game vs. New York, as five of the last six meetings between these teams have sailed 'over' the total.  It's true that the Giants' last few games have gone 'under,' but they've now gone 'over' 29-11 in games with O/U lines less than 48 points, if their two previous games went 'under.'  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins upset division rival New England, 22-12, as a 1-point home dog last week.  And they've now been installed as a road favorite at Las Vegas.  We will go against Miami on Saturday night, as non-division road favorites have covered just 35.2% over the last 40 years if they were off an upset win at home over a division rival.  Even worse:  Miami has covered just 9 of 37 games, itself, off an upset win the previous week against a division foe, including 1-10 ATS its last 10 as a favorite of more than 2 points.  Take the Raiders + the points as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, in the LendingTree Bowl, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Georgia State.  This is another "offense vs defense" matchup in the Bowls.  The Panthers are the offensive-minded team, as they score 32.7 ppg (against foes that give up 27.7), while the Hilltoppers are the defensive-minded squad, as they give up just 18 ppg (against foes that score 24.1 ppg).  And, as faithful followers know, in College Football, I will take the points with the better defensive team more often than not.  Indeed, post-season favorites of 5 or less points, with defenses that give up more than 3 points than their opponent's defense, have gone 6-29 ATS.  The Hilltoppers come into this game off back to back double-digit blowout wins against Florida International and Charlotte.  And the Hilltoppers are 24-11 ATS off back to back wins, including 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +6 points.  Take Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Cajuns come into this game off an upset road win at Appalachian State, and have been installed as a two-touchdown favorite vs. the Roadrunners in this First Responder Bowl game in Dallas, Texas.  But off that upset victory, we will fade the Cajuns on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, favorites of more than 9 points off a road win have gone 2-16 ATS away from home in a bowl game.  That doesn't bode well for Louisiana on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that it's covered just 2 of 8 (and just 9 of 25) as favorites of more than 13 points.  Finally, Sun Belt Conference teams are a horrid 15-38 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) points vs. non-conference foes.  Take the Roadrunners + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'under' the total.  Last week, the Buccaneers spotted the Atlanta Falcons 17 points, and trailed 17-0 at the half, before storming back in the 2nd half for a 31-27 victory.  They're now installed as a double-digit favorite at Detroit, which lost 46-25 at Tennessee last Sunday.  Both of these teams have played their games predominantly over the total this season.  Detroit has gone 9-5 'over,' while Tampa has gone 8-6 'over.'  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here.  But be careful, as NFL games between two teams whose previous games both totaled 58+ points have also gone 'under' the total 57% over the last 41 years.  The 'under' also falls into 102-47, 107-76 and 267-211 Totals systems of mine.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the Lions and Bucs 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Buffalo.  Both of these teams come into this Christmas Day game off upset losses.  Marshall was defeated, 22-13, by UAB, as a 4.5-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Bulls were 5-0, and favored by double-digits in the Mid-American Conference championship game last weekend, but fell by 10 points to Ball State, 38-28.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, NCAA Bowl favorites generally don't bounce back from Conference Championship game blowout losses, as they're 12-28 ATS off a double-digit loss in their Conference Title game.  Even worse:  Buffalo's favored in this game, even though its defense rates poorer than Marshall's.  The Bulls have given up 23.8 ppg (against foes that average 27.7).  And while that's really good, Marshall's has been much better, as it's only given up 12.6 ppg (against foes that average 21 ppg).  We'll grab the points with the Herd, as NCAA Bowl teams -- not favored by more than 10 points -- have cashed 65 of 95 if their defense gave up less than 14.7 ppg, and their defense also gave up at least 5.83 ppg less than their opponent's.  Even better:  if our 'play-on' team (here, Marshall) failed to cover its previous game by more than 8 points, then our 65-30 ATS angle zooms to 14-1 ATS!  Finally, dating back 15 years, Mid-American Conference teams have gone 3-15 SU and 5-12-1 ATS vs. Conference USA foes in the Bowls, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Houston.  For the season, the Cougars had a losing record (3-4), a negative scoring margin (-0.28), a negative ATS record (3-4 ATS), and a negative point spread differential (-4.14).  Yet they find themselves hefty favorites this afternoon vs. the Rainbow Warriors.  We will fade Houston, as Bowl favorites (or PK), with a negative scoring margin, and a point spread differential of -1.75 (or worse) have covered a paltry 26.3% over the last 41 seasons.  Even worse:  Houston's defense surrenders north of 32.5 ppg.  Unfortunately, Bowl favorites (or PK) with a defense that gives up more than 31.5 ppg have gone 0-17 ATS their last 17.  Take Hawaii + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Memphis.  The Owls are giving up just 16.5 points per game (against oppoents that average 22.8), and have a much better defense than do the Tigers.  Memphis surrenders 29.7 ppg (against foes that average 29.4).  Last week, we played on Northwestern against Ohio State, and what I wrote then in my analysis also applies here.  Basically, when wagering on post-season games, it's dangerous to give the much better defensive team a lot of points, as underdogs of 7+ points that surrender at least 7 less points than their opponent have covered 73% over the last 41 years.  Florida Atlantic is 6-0 SU/ATS its last six post-season games, while Memphis is 1-7 straight-up and 0-8 ATS its last eight post-season games.  Take the Owls as a big underdog this evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals to go 'over' the total.  Both of these teams come into this Monday night game off a string of 4 unders in a row.  The Steelers' last four games have averaged 36 ppg, while Cincinnati's last four have averaged just 32 ppg.  Pittsburgh's problems have largely been on the offensive side of the ball, as they've not scored 20+ points in any of their last 3 games (after scoring 24+ in each of their first 10 games this season).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here.  But consider that NFL games have gone over the total 58% of the time over the last 41 seasons if both teams were riding an 'under' streak of at least four games.  That bodes well for the 'OVER' tonight.  As does the fact that the Steelers have sailed 'over' the total in 26 of 44 if they were on a 2-game (or worse) losing streak.   Take the Monday Night game 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.