At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Missouri.  The Tigers almost pulled off the season's biggest upset last week when they took #1 Georgia down to the wire before falling, 26-22, as a 31-point home dog.  That will be a tough game to bounce back from, as NCAA teams have covered just 31.8% after losing to the defending National Champs by a touchdown or less.  And the SEC road has not been kind to Missouri, as the Tigers are a dismal 7-20 SU and 8-19 ATS at SEC rivals, including 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points.  Florida is a powerful 71% since 1980 as a double-digit home favorite vs. losing teams off an ATS win.  Lay the points with the Gators.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs and Jayhawks are both undefeated SU and ATS this season.  TCU is 4-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over the Oklahoma Sooners, 55-24, while Kansas is 5-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over Iowa State, 14-11.  We'll fade TCU as road favorites off an upset win in which they scored 50+ points are an abysmal 1-12 ATS their last 13.  Take Kansas + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Memphis.  The Coogs have largely stumbled this season, as they're 1-4 ATS, and have lost two games outright as 8.5 and 4.5-point favorites.  Their lone point spread win this season was when they were installed as a 4-point underdog at Texas Tech.  And they covered the spread in that game -- a 33-30 loss.  Houston is 22-11-1 ATS its last 34 as an underdog, including 14-4-1 ATS on the road.  That bodes well for Houston here.  As does the fact that the Cougars are 10-2 ATS off an upset loss at home to a conference rival.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are a wallet-breaking 10-35-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite!  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Carolina Panthers.  The Cardinals made the playoffs last season, but one of their not-so-good games came at the hands of the Panthers, who blew them out, 34-10, as a 7-point road underdog.  And, improbably, that was the sixth straight double-digit win (including 3 straight upsets) by Carolina over Arizona in this series.  The Cardinals have surely gotten off to a worrisome 1-2 start this year.  They know they can’t fall to 1-3 as that might be too deep of a hole from which to dig out.  Part of the reason Arizona is 1-2 is that it was saddled with a difficult opening schedule.  Indeed, its first 3 opponents (Chiefs, Raiders, Rams) also made the Playoffs last season.  But this week's opponent -- Carolina -- was just 5-12 last season, so it's a step-down in class for Arizona.  For technical support, consider that NFL underdogs with a losing record, that made the Playoffs the previous season, have gone 19-2 ATS in Week 4, if they were playing another losing team.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Houston.  The Chargers were upset at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, 38-10.  But off that upset loss, I’ll look for Los Angeles to rebound here, as road favorites off 17-point (or worse) upset losses have covered 72% since 1998.  Even better:  the Chargers are 49-29-6 ATS off an upset loss.  And they're also 27-6-2 ATS on the road following a game where they scored less than 14 points, provided they weren't getting more than 10 in the current game.  Lay the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars OVER the total.  The Jaguars are giving up just 12.66 ppg, and outscoring their foes by 15.33 ppg, while Philly is surrendering just 16.66 ppg, and outscoring its foes by 12 ppg.  I think this will be a high scoring affair.  At Game 4 forward, when you get a team (like Jacksonville) holding its opponents to 13 or less points per game, its games have gone Over the total 60.1% since 1980 if the Line was greater than 41 points.  And in matchups between two teams with scoring margins > 7 ppg, those games have gone Over the total 57% since 1980 when the line was greater than 43 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  Washington opened its season with a nice win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but lost to Detroit and Philly in Weeks 2 + 3.  In contrast, the Cowboys opened their season with a loss to Tampa, but rebounded in Weeks 2 + 3 with back to back upset wins, including a 23-16 victory at the New York Giants this past Monday.  Unfortunately for Dallas, NFL teams off a division upset win (and back to back upset wins, overall) have covered just 22% the past 43 seasons vs. division foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for the Cowboys this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that this has been an underdog-oriented rivalry, with the dog going 50-26-1 ATS in the last 77 meetings.  Grab the points with Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30pm, our selection is on the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers minus the points over Rice. This is a huge revenge game for the Blazers, as they were favored by 23.5 points last year at home vs. Rice, but lost, 30-24.  The Owls hung tough at Houston last Saturday, but ultimately succumbed to the Cougars, 34-27, as a 17.5-point road underdog.  UAB had last week off after defeating Georgia Southern two weeks ago, 35-21, as an 11.5-point home favorite.  We played on UAB in that victory, and will come back with them here, on the road, at Rice.  UAB is a solid 14-7-2 ATS when playing with rest vs. a conference foe.  And Rice is a horrid 1-10 ATS when getting 2+ points against a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Alabama-Birmingham.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Clemson/North Carolina State game.  Earlier in the week, it appeared as if Columbia, SC may have been in for some real bad weather today.  And the Over/Under line got as low as 39.5 in anticipation of that.  But the city has been fortunate to largely escape the wrath of Hurricane Ian, and today's game will be played under mostly cloudy skies, and with low wind.  So, the Over/Under line has snapped back to where it was last Sunday night.  Last week, the Wolfpack blew out UConn, 41-10, while the Tigers won, 51-45, over Wake Forest.  But I look for a lower-scoring game here, as the Tigers are 16-9 UNDER after playing a game Over the total.  And they're 28-12 UNDER after scoring 45+ points in their previous game.  Moreover, ACC games have gone 55-30 UNDER if both teams went OVER in their previous game.  Take the Wolfpack/Tigers game UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Baylor.  This game has been circled for months on the Cowboys' calendar, as Baylor knocked it off in the Big 12 Title game last December.  The Bears were a touchdown underdog in that game, but won a thriller, 21-16, when the Cowboys' Dezmon Jackson came up inches short of a game-winning TD when he dove for the pylon on a 4th-and-goal play with less than 30 seconds left in the game.  Two weeks ago, Oklahoma State blew out Pine Bluff, 63-7.  And Okie State is 41-12 ATS off a win in which it scored 50+ points.  Additionally, early in the season, rested, revenging road teams have cashed 65.9% when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if not favored by 7+ points in the current game.  Take the Cowboys + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over James Madison.  This is JMU's first season at the Division 1 (FBS) level, and it's off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start, with three impressive victories over Middle Tenn (44-7), Norfolk (63-7) and Appalachian St (32-28).  We played on the Dukes last week, as a touchdown underdog, and it stormed back from an early 28-3 deficit to upend Appalachian St in Boone.  The Dukes return home to Harrisonburg for this game, and have been installed as a greater-than-three-touchdown favorite against the Bobcats.  Off that big emotional win (its first conference game at this level), I'll look for a letdown on Saturday.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan.  The Hawkeyes come into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, as they held their last two opponents (Rutgers, Nevada) to 10 and 0 points, respectively.  For the season, Iowa's given up just 5.7 ppg.  And they're holding their opponents to a mere 2.2 yards per rush.  I like playing on certain defensive-minded underdogs with strong rush defenses.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 5 forward, NCAA underdogs that give up less than 14 points per game, and less than 2.75 ypr, are 122-68 ATS if they come into the game off a momentum-building win.  Even better:  if our puppy is playing at home vs. a conference foe, then our 122-68 ATS angle zooms to 21-5 ATS.  Take Iowa + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Temple.  This is a big revenge game for Memphis which was upset by Temple last season, 34-31, as an 11-point road favorite.  The Owls do come into this game off three straight ATS wins.  But all three of those games were at home.  In Temple's lone road game this season, it was blown out, 30-0, by Duke.  And that continued the Owls' road woes, as they're 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS away from home, including 0-5 SU/ATS since Oct 8, 2021.  Even worse:  Temple's 0-7 SU/ATS its last seven conference games, while Memphis is a solid 11-6 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Navy.  The Midshipmen upset East Carolina last Saturday, 23-20, while Air Force ran over Nevada, 48-20.  We'll fade Navy, as it's 5-20 ATS in non-conference games off an upset win, if its opponent was also off a SU win.  Take Air Force.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Kansas State.  Both of these teams pulled off upsets last Saturday.  Texas Tech got the better of Texas, in Lubbock, 37-34, as a 7-point dog.  And, not to be outdone, the Wildcats went into Norman, and stunned the highly-ranked Sooners, 41-34, as a 13.5-point underdog.  K-State will try to make it two-conference-wins-in-a-row on Saturday when the Red Raiders pay a visit to Manhattan.  But Big 12 (or Big 8) Conference home favorites have only covered 32.1% since 1980 off a conference upset road win, if they were matched up against a conference foe which also won its previous game.  Grab the points with Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Washington.  Both of these Pac-12 teams sport 4-0 records in the early going.  Last Saturday, Washington blew out Stanford in Seattle to move to 4-0 SU/ATS, while UCLA went into Boulder and crushed Colorado, 45-17.  We'll grab the points with Chip Kelly's men on Friday, and go against Washington, as Pac-12 road favorites of 8 or less points have covered just 27.7% against foes that don't have a worse record, if our road team was off a win + cover as a home favorite.  Even better:  the Bruins are 23-9-2 ATS as a home dog vs. foes off a point spread win.  Take UCLA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Miami.  Last week, in a battle of undefeated, 2-0 teams, Miami bested Buffalo, 21-19, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  But after toppling the Bills from the ranks of the unbeatens, we'll fade Miami on the road tonight.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, at Game 4 forward, .500 (or better) NFL road dogs have cashed just 32.6% after knocking off an undefeated team, provided they weren't favored by 3+ points in that previous game.  And Miami is a miserable 11-31 ATS off an upset win over a division rival.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last year, the Bengals reached the Super Bowl.  This season, they've not yet found similar success.  Indeed, Cincy is 0-2 SU/ATS after its first two games.  But I love the Bengals to bounce back on Sunday.  Since 1980, NFL teams that made the playoffs the previous season have cashed 60% in Game 3 after starting the season winless SU/ATS.  That bodes well for the Bengals here.  As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 66-116-6 ATS at home vs. foes that don’t have a winning record, including 13-32 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Kansas City.  The Colts were shut out, 24-0, by the Jaguars last Sunday.  However, off that embarrassing defeat, we'll take Indy as a big home underdog against the Chiefs.  The Colts are a solid 48-23 ATS off a straight-up loss, while KC has covered just 38 of 93 games as a favorite vs. foes off back to back losses.  And since 1980, NFL teams, like Indianapolis, that scored less than 6 points in an upset loss have gone 104-74-4 ATS in their subsequent game.  Take the home underdog Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Wyoming.  The Cougars were blown out last week, 41-20, at Oregon, while Wyoming upset Air Force, 17-14.  We'll look for BYU to crush the Cowboys, as BYU has covered 70.5% over the last 42 years off a loss, when installed as a home favorite against non-conference foes, including 6-0-1 ATS their last seven when also off a double-digit loss!  Lay the points with Brigham Young.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over USC.  The Beavers enter with a 3-0 SU/ATS record after blowing out Montana State last Saturday, 68-28.  They're a home dog here, so we'll grab the points knowing that conference underdogs of more than 4 points have covered 57% over the last 42 years, if they scored 68+ points in their previous game.  Moreover, USC is an ugly 14-28 ATS away from home off a point spread win.  Take Oregon State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Gamecocks were blown out here, at home in Columbia, last Saturday.  The #1-ranked Georgia Bulldogs rolled into town, and roasted the Gamecocks, 48-7.  But off that debacle, I love Shane Beamer's men to rebound on Saturday night.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NCAA home favorites of -16 (or more) points, off a home loss by 16+ points, have covered 82.3% vs. non-conference foes off a win.  With Charlotte off a 42-41 win at Georgia State, we'll fade the 49ers in this game.  Lay the points with South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Wisconsin.  We played on the Buckeyes last week as our NCAA Favorite of the Month, and were rewarded with a 77-21 blowout over Toledo, as a 31-point favorite.  This Saturday, the Buckeyes are hosting Wisconsin in their Big 10 Conference opener.  Ohio State has won 10 straight conference openers, and is 5-0-1 ATS their last six (and 26-3 SU, 18-7-4 ATS their last 29).  Even better:  the Buckeyes have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, and are 8-3-1 ATS in those games (and 4-0-1 ATS here in Columbus).  We'll lay the points on Saturday night, as undefeated teams have covered 65.1% of conference home games since 1980 off a home game where they covered the spread by 25+ points.  Take the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over LSU.  The Tigers pulled off a big upset win last week vs. SEC rival, Mississippi State.  But off that emotional win, we'll fade the Tigers in this non-conference game.  Since 1980, LSU has covered just 30% of non-conference games off upset wins, while the Lobos are 18-8 ATS vs. foes off an upset win (including 5-0 vs. non-conference foes).  Take New Mexico + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes and Wisconsin Badgers UNDER the total.  Last week, we had our biggest play of the season-to-date on Ohio State, and the Buckeyes rolled up 77 points against the Toledo Rockets — the 5th most points scored in school history. But off that high-scoring win, I’ll look for a much lower-scoring affair here. For technical support, consider that NCAA teams have gone Under 55% over the past 10 years after scoring 60 (or more) points in their previous game.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi + the points over Tulane.  The Green Wave pulled off a big upset last week when it went into Manhattan, KS, and upset the Wildcats, 17-10, as a 13-point road dog.  We'll fade Tulane on Saturday evening, as it's 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS off an upset road win, including 0-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with Southern Mississippi.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Rice.  The Cougars have dominated this cross-town rivalry since 2011, with 6 straight wins (5-1 ATS).  Houston does come into this game off back to back losses, but it's 9-2 ATS off back to back losses, and 19-8 ATS when it owned a losing point spread record.  Look for Houston to rebound off its losses, and blow out Rice.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Toledo/San Diego State game.  We had our biggest play of the season-to-date last week on the Ohio State Buckeyes over Toledo, so we were not surprised when the Buckeyes exploded for 77 points, the 5th-most in school history.  Going into that game, Toledo had allowed just 1 touchdown and 10 total points.  So I expect a much better defensive effort on Saturday vs. the Aztecs, who mustered just 7 points in a 35-7 loss to Utah.  Toledo has gone 7-1 Under as a road favorite of -6 or less points.  Meanwhile, the Aztecs are 40-20-1 Under the total their last 61, 21-7 their last 28 as an underdog, and 18-7 Under their last 25 off a loss.  This will be a very low-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Florida.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 3-0 record, and also play with revenge from a 24-point blowout loss at Florida last season.  It's true that Florida has won the last five meetings.  But revenge-minded favorites, with an .875 (or better) win percentage, have covered 63.8% vs. conference rivals over the last 20 seasons, if they also lost to their opponent two meetings back.  That bodes well for the Volunteers on Saturday.  As does the fact that Florida is a dreadful 0-8 ATS its last eight road games.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over Appalachian State.  James Madison has been impressive in its first two games as a Division 1 FBS team.  It opened with a 44-7 blowout of Middle Tennessee, as a 5-point home favorite.  And then it walloped Norfolk State, 63-7.  It's been installed as a touchdown underdog at 2-1 Appalachian State, which checks in off back to back wins over Texas A&M and Troy State.  We'll grab the points, as .500 (or better) underdogs of +7 (or more) points have covered 60.9% since 1980 after back to back games where they gave up 7 or less points.  Take James Madison.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland.  The Wolves have picked up where they left off last season, as they're 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.  Over the last two seasons, Jim Harbaugh's troops are 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS, including 9-1 ATS when priced from -5 to -50 points.  One of those wins last season was against this Maryland team.  Michigan was favored by 16, and won 59-18.  This season, the point spread is similar to last year.  And I expect a similar result.  Maryland is a horrid 4-29 SU and 7-26 ATS vs. winning teams.  And it's 0-13 ATS when playing a .600 (or better) foe, and getting 14+ points.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, we played on the Minnesota Vikings against Green Bay, and were rewarded with a 23-7 blowout win.  But off that loss, we'll take Aaron Rodgers & Co. to bounce back on Sunday.  And when they're playing the Bears, they generally do bounce back off losses.  Indeed, Green Bay is 19-1-1 ATS its last 21 (including 13-0 ATS its last 13) vs. Chicago if Green Bay failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  And with Aaron Rodgers under center, the Packers are a solid 63-37-3 ATS when not favored by 13 points against an opponent NOT off an ATS loss.  Take Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Las Vegas.  The Cardinals were blown out by Kansas City, 44-21, in Week 1, while Las Vegas lost to the Chargers.  We'll look for Arizona to rebound on Sunday, as underdogs off a double-digit loss in Week 1 have covered 69.4% since 1991 if they owned a winning record the previous season.  Moreover, the Raiders are an atrocious 25-52-1 ATS as a favorite, including 0-9 ATS their last nine.  Grab the points with Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our NFC West Division Game of the Year is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Seattle.  The Niners were surprised by the Chicago Bears in Week 1, as they lost, 19-10, as a 7-point road favorite.  Meanwhile, Seattle upset Denver, 17-16, on Monday night.  We'll take the 49ers to bounce back strong on Sunday afternoon, as they're a spectacular 67-28 ATS off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Moreover, in week 2, NFL teams off a road loss in Week 1, that made the playoffs the previous year, have covered 68% since 1980 against foes off an upset win to start the season.  Finally, the Seahawks are a poor 6-16-1 ATS in their road openers.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  Last week, the Buccaneers played the Cowboys in a match-up of two Playoff teams from the previous season.  Tampa emerged victorious, 19-3, and now travels to play the Saints, who also won its season opener.  We'll fade Tampa Bay, as road favorites have only covered 33% since 1980 in Week 2, if they won SU/ATS in Week 1 against a team that made the playoffs the previous season.  New Orleans is 17-5 SU and 14-8 ATS its last 22 games vs. Tampa Bay, including 2-0 last year, and 7-1 SU/ATS since Dec. 2018.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Bill Belichick's men were blown out, 20-7, by Miami in Week 1, while Pittsburgh upended Cincy, 23-20, in overtime.  But with New England off that loss, we'll lay the short number vs. the Steelers.  For technical support, consider that New England is 23-8 ATS its last 31 (and 10-0 SU/ATS its last 10) non-division games when not favored by 3+ points, if it was off a SU loss, and its foe was off a SU win.  Take the Patriots.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New York Giants.  New York won a thriller last week when it scored a touchdown and two-point conversion to stun the Titans (who owned the AFC's #1 record last season), 21-20.  Unfortunately, Game 2 favorites, that defeated a Playoff team from the previous season in its opener, have covered just 42% against foes off a SU loss.  I look for New York to suffer a letdown on this Sunday.  Take Carolina + the points.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over San Diego State.  Last season, the Aztecs upset the Utes, 33-31, as an 8-point home underdog.  We'll take Utah in this revenge match, as the Utes have cashed 70% at home over the past 42 years when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  And they've cashed 80% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a non-conference foe.  San Diego State, meanwhile, is a soft 37% ATS on the road vs. revenge-minded, non-conference foes.  And Utah also falls into a 75-46 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams in non-conference games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs and Terrapins are both 2-0 on the season.  SMU dispatched North Texas (48-10) in Week 1, and Lamar (45-16) last Saturday, while Maryland blew out Buffalo and Charlotte in its games.  The Terps have been installed as a small favorite here, and that's not good news for SMU.  Indeed, the Mustangs are a wallet-breaking 13-39 ATS as a road underdog of +10 (or less) points.  Even worse, NCAAF underdogs are 0-13 ATS their last 13 (and 8-42 ATS their last 50) off back to back games in which they scored more than 40 points.  Take Maryland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Toledo.  The Rockets come into this game with a 2-0 record, after winning home games vs. Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10.  But this is a monstrous step-up in class for Toledo, which will travel 140 miles south to play the Buckeyes in Columbus.  Toledo's generally been horrible out-of-conference when installed as an underdog of more than 2 points.  And especially when playing a .500 (or better) opponent, as it's gone 4-25 SU and 7-22 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for the Rockets on Saturday night.  Ohio State wasn't at its best last week, as it won by only 33 (as a 44.5-point favorite) vs. Arkansas State.  But the Buckeyes were without WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming, both of whom will play on Saturday night.  The return of All-American Smith-Njigba should be especially impactful, as he led OSU with 1606 receiving yards last season.  After Ohio State failed to cover the spread last week, several of my best NCAAF systems -- with records of 65-22, 277-189 and 30-4 ATS -- have been triggered on the Buckeyes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Liberty.  Wake Forest was impressive last week in its blowout win at Vanderbilt.  The Deacs were favored by 13, and covered the spread in a 45-25 triumph.  They'll look to move their record to 3-0 SU/ATS, as 2-0 Liberty will pay a visit.  Wake is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS at home after scoring more than 30 points in back-to-back games.  And it's 6-0-1 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -28 points.  Lay the points with Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Kansas.  The Cougars will be happy to return to Houston for their 2022 home opener after road games against Texas-San Antonio and Texas Tech.  The Cougars split those two games, and will welcome the 2-0 Jayhawks to TDECU Stadium.  Kansas is 2-0 for the first time since the 2011 season after its upset win as a 2-touchdown underdog at WVU last week.  But Kansas hasn't won 3 straight games since 2009.  And it's a dismal 55-84-1 ATS its last 140, overall, including 7-19-1 ATS off a win, and 2-19-1 ATS if it owned a winning record!  Take Houston minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers + the points over Penn State.  Both of these teams come into this game with 2-0 records.  Penn State notched a Big 10 win at Purdue, 35-31, and then walloped Ohio, 46-10.  Auburn opened its season with a 26-point win over Mercer, and then outlasted San Jose State last Saturday, 24-16.  A year ago, the Nittany Lions bested the Tigers, 28-20, in Happy Valley, as a 4-point home favorite.  This season's game is in Auburn, where the Tigers have won 17 straight vs. non-conference foes.  Even better:  Auburn is 22-10 ATS at home when playing with revenge, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +10 points.  Finally, the Nittany Lions are a dismal 22-36-3 ATS vs. undefeated opponents, including 2-11 ATS on the road if the Nittany Lions were also undefeated, and also 3-15-1 ATS if its foe was off an ATS loss.  Take Auburn + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  Last Saturday, the Eagles went into Lincoln as a 23.5-point underdog, and handed Nebraska a 45-42 loss.  And then Nebraska Athletic Director, Trev Alberts, handed coach Scott Frost his walking papers.  Off that big upset win, I look for a letdown on the road in Birmingham.  Indeed, over the past 42 years, underdogs off upset road wins as 14-point (or greater) underdogs, have covered the spread just 39% in their next game when matched up against a .500 (or better) team.  Lay the points with the Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over South Alabama.  UCLA comes into this game with a 2-0 record following wins over Bowling Green (45-17) and Alabama St. (45-7).  South Alabama is also 2-0, as the Jaguars went up north last weekend and upset Central Michigan, 38-24, as a 6-point dog.  And they won SU/ATS in Week 1 against Nicholls St., 48-7.  Unfortunately, teams off an upset win, that are undefeated SU/ATS on the season, have covered just 41% since 1980 as double-digit dogs vs. foes off a SU win.  Even worse:  South Alabama is a woeful 0-8 ATS off a SU/ATS win when matched up against a foe off a SU win.  And the Bruins are a solid 25-7 ATS at home following a big offensive game where they scored 42+ points.  Take UCLA.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Patrick Mahomes & Co. racked up 44 points last week in a 23-point blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals.  But off that offensive explosion, we will fade KC at home tonight.  Indeed, NFL home teams off a win by more than 20 points to start the season are an awful 1-13-1 ATS.  And the Chargers are 30-14-5 ATS on the road vs. division foes not off a loss.  Grab the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  These two teams split the season series, 1 game apiece.  Minnesota won, 34-31, at home, but Green Bay blew out the Vikings at Lambeau Field, 37-10, in the next-to-last game of the season.  However, QB Kirk Cousins didn’t play in that game due to COVID-19, so Green Bay was installed as a 13-point home favorite, and coasted to an easy win.  After last year's home win, the Vikings have now gone 11-6 ATS as a home dog/pk vs. Green Bay.  And NFC North Division home dogs, as a whole, have gone 91-70-3 ATS in division games.  Finally, in Game 1 divisional matchups between two teams that won at least 8 games the previous season, home dogs have cashed 71% since 1981.  Grab the points with the Vikings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Arizona.  We played on each of these two teams last week -- and won on both of them.  Miss State demolished Memphis 49-23, while Arizona upset San Diego State, 38-20.  But off its huge upset win, we will fade the Wildcats on Saturday night.  Arizona is a wallet-busting 39-76-2 ATS off a point spread win, including 0-7 ATS in non-conference games off a SU win as an underdog/PK.  Additionally, the Wildcats fall into negative 11-66, 89-178 and 53-139 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Baylor.  Last year, the Bears got the better of the Cougars, 38-24.  But that game was in Waco; this game is in Provo.  Baylor has covered just 1 of 8 non-conference games when playing a revenge-minded foe, if Baylor wasn't favored by 20+ points.  And BYU is a solid 33-21-1 ATS when playing with revenge, and not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  The 'Huskers won last week (but didn't cover), and are now 1-1 SU, and 0-2 ATS.  We'll lay the points with Scott Frost's men, as Nebraska has gone 34-1 SU and 28-7 ATS if it didn't cover the point spread in either of its two previous games, and was priced between -9 and -31 points.  Take the Cornhuskers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Monarchs won a big game last week when they upset Virginia Tech, 20-17, at home.  But off that emotional win over an in-state rival, we'll fade ODU on Saturday evening.  Indeed, underdogs have covered just 40% over the last 42 years off an upset home win to open their season.  Lay the points with the Pirates.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Tennessee.  This is a rematch of a game played in Knoxville last September.  Pitt was a 3.5-point road favorite in that game, and won, 41-34.  And that game was representative of Tennessee's problems over the last five seasons.  It just hasn't stepped up vs. winning teams.  Indeed, the Vols are 8-23 SU and 11-20 ATS vs. winning foes, including 3-11 SU/ATS their last 14.  Certainly, the Vols hope to turn things around this season.  They won their opener last Thursday, 59-10, over Ball State.  And they've now been installed as a road favorite against last year's ACC Champ, Pittsburgh, which won, 38-31, vs. rival West Virginia.  Still, we'll go against the Volunteers, as they're an awful 20-36-2 ATS off a home win, including 0-7 ATS since 2020.  And if they won their previous game by 27+ points, then they've gone 3-18 ATS, including 0-9 ATS with revenge.  Grab the points with Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over North Carolina.  Georgia State lost at South Carolina last week, 35-14, while North Carolina upset Appalachian St, 63-61.  The Panthers return home this week, and will seek to avenge a road loss at North Carolina last September.  The Tar Heels were favored by 25.5 last season, and defeated Georgia St, 59-17.  We'll take the Panthers + the points, as home underdogs have covered 61% of their home openers vs. non-conference foes since 1980, when playing with revenge from a 24-point (or worse) defeat.  Even better, the Tar Heels are an awful 11-30-1 ATS off a road win in which they scored more than 30 points.  And they're 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a point spread win.  Take Georgia State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Northwestern.  Duke shut out Temple, 30-0, last week to kick off its 2022 season.  And it now will travel to Evanston to play Northwestern.  The Wildcats also are 1-0, as they upset the Nebraska Cornhuskers, in Dublin, Ireland, to open their season.  They'll try to follow that up with a home win against the Blue Devils, who have won each of the last three meetings between these teams.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they're a woeful 27-46-2 ATS as a home favorite, including 0-9 ATS when priced from -8 to -12.  And Duke is 34-20-1 ATS as an underdog vs. a revenge-minded foe.  Take Duke.

At 12 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Southern Miss.  The 'Canes had a cupcake game to kick off 2022, as they blew out Bethune-Cookman here last Saturday, 70-13.  Southern Miss lost by 2 points to Liberty, but covered the point spread.  Off that 57-point win, we'll lay the wood with Miami today.  Over the last 42 seasons, favorites that scored more than 49 points in Week 1 are 67.1% ATS in Week 2 when playing an opponent off an ATS win that gave up more than 10 points in its previous game.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Notre Dame.  The Marcus Freeman-era will start this Saturday, and it will be at a most difficult venue for visiting teams.  Ohio State is a dominant 134-32-1 straight-up, and 94-64-4 ATS at home when not favored by 22+ points.  Even better:  dating back to 1979, Ohio State has won 34 straight season openers, if it was playing at home, and has gone 21-11 ATS in those games.  Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are a wallet-breaking 15-26-1 ATS in their first road game of the season, including 0-3 SU/ATS as double-digit underdogs.  And they've covered just 21 of 52 road games vs. Big 10 Conference foes.  Lay the points with Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Alabama.  The Aggies won their season opener last week, at home, vs. UConn, 31-20, and outgained the Huskies by 178 yards.  Here, they've been installed as a 6-touchdown underdog vs. the #1-ranked Crimson Tide, and we'll happily grab the points.  Alabama has burned money over the past 42 years in its home openers, including 3-9 ATS when priced as a 28-point (or greater) favorite.  Utah State, on the other hand, is 10-5 ATS its last 15 road openers.  And it's a profitable 33-15 ATS when getting more than 3 points away from home (including 15-5 ATS when getting more than 20).  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Memphis.  These two teams met last season at Memphis, and the Tigers upset Miss State, 31-29.  We had a big play on Memphis in that game, but will reverse course, and take the revenge-minded Bulldogs on Saturday night.  Over the previous 33 years, Mississippi State has cashed 64.2% as a revenge-minded favorite, including 82% in non-conference games!  That bodes well for Miss State on Saturday.  As does the fact that Memphis is 0-8 ATS its last 8 when playing on the road against a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the N. Texas Mean Green + the points over SMU.  The Mean Green play with revenge from three blowout losses to the Mustangs (35-12, 65-35, 49-27) the past three seasons.  Here, the Mean Green will play with a game under its belt (while SMU will be taking the field for the first time this season).  And the Mean Green were impressive in their first game, as they earned a blowout win at UTEP.  North Texas is 17-6 ATS at home off a road win.  Additionally, the Mean Green fall into a 131-74 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a 34-14 ATS 'momentum' angle, based on their 18-point blowout win last week.  Grab the points with North Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over the San Diego State Aztecs.  Last season, San Diego State went into Tucson, and pummeled Arizona, 38-14.  But you know what they say about paybacks!  And Arizona falls into a terrific 95-55 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams in a revenge situation.  The Aztecs, meanwhile, have covered just 40% since 1980 as favorites vs. revenge-minded non-conference foes.  And Arizona has cashed 71% since 1980 as underdogs when playing with revenge vs. non-conference opposition.  Take the Wildcats + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Cincinnati. Luke Fickell's men have gone 22-2 SU and 14-8 ATS the past two seasons, but I expect a big drop-off this season.  The Bearcats lost QB Desmond Ridder, RB Jerome Ford and WR Alec Pierce, among others, on offense.  And they also lost six defensive starters from a unit which finished #5 in scoring defense.  Cincinnati may get better as the season progresses, but it's too much to ask of this team to go into Fayetteville, and win a season opener.  The Razorbacks are a solid 34-5-1 straight-up in their last 40 home openers, and have covered the spread 60% of the time, including 12-3 ATS when priced from +3 to -20.5 points.  Cincinnati, meanwhile, is a soft 14-28 SU and 16-22 ATS in its road openers, including 5-22 SU and 11-16 ATS when priced as an underdog.  Lay the points with Arkansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Houston.  Each of these teams come into 2022 off great seasons last year.  Houston capped off a 12-2 campaign with a 17-13 victory over Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl, while UTSA also went 12-2, but lost in the Frisco Bowl to San Diego St., 38-24.  The Roadrunners have been dominant here in the Alamo City, as they've won 10 straight home games, and have gone 7-3 ATS in this stretch.  Texas-San Antonio has also covered 67% as home dogs of +10 or less points, while Houston has covered just 13 of 37 as a road favorite of 10 or less points.  Finally, in match-ups between two teams that won 80% (or more) of their games the previous season, teams installed as home dogs in their home openers have covered the spread 69% since 1980.  Grab the points with Texas-San Antonio.

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners over the North Texas Mean Green.  Last season, UTEP had a winning campaign (7-6) for the first time since 2014, and earned a New Mexico Bowl bid.  The Miners did lose that bowl game, 31-24, to Fresno State (its 7th straight bowl defeat), but its season was still a success.  This season, the Miners return 15 players for 5th year-head coach, Dana Dimel, who was 5-27 in his first three seasons in El Paso.  The Miners fell to the Mean Green, 20-17, last season on a late field goal.  And that was UTEP's 5th straight defeat in this series.  We'll take UTEP to avenge that defeat as it falls into a 67-36 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, revenge-minded Conference USA teams have gone 175-137 ATS at home vs. conference foes, if our revenger wasn't favored by more than 3 points.  And North Texas is a wallet-busting 4-15 ATS its last 19 road games vs. revenge-minded opponents.  Finally, the Miners are 8-2 ATS in their home openers when installed as a PK/Underdog, while North Texas is a poor 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS vs. an opponent playing its home opener.  Take Texas El Paso.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Bengals continue to step up against the league's best teams.  They're now 9-1 SU/ATS vs. winning opponents!  And that includes impressive upset wins over the Chiefs (twice), Titans and Ravens (with Lamar Jackson).  In contrast, the Rams are 4-6 ATS this season vs. winning opponents, including a horrid 1-6 ATS as a favorite!  And they're 6-12 ATS when laying more than 3 points, and 11-26 ATS off back to back wins under Sean McVay (including 5-19 ATS when the line was 7 or less points).  It's true that the Rams will be playing this game at their home stadium, but home teams are a soft 17-25 in the Playoffs since 2018 when favored by 3+ points.  Take the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams OVER the total.  The Rams held Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers in check in the NFC Conference Championship game, which finished 20-17, and went under the total of 45.5 points by 8.5 points.  But the Rams have tended to go OVER the total when facing the better NFL teams, as they're 10-4 OVER when playing an opponent which averages more than 26.75 ppg, and 7-1 OVER when playing an opponent with a .650 (or better) win percentage.  Additionally, the Rams are now 5-0 OVER following an under in their previous game.  Even better:  NFL teams have gone OVER 67-42 in the Playoffs following a game it went under by more than 8 points, if such Playoff game had a line greater than 42 points.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers over the total.  These two teams met earlier this month, and the Niners upset the Rams here, in Los Angeles, to punch their ticket to the Playoffs.  That regular season game went OVER the total.  And we'll look for a similar result on Sunday, as the NFC Championship games have been extremely high scoring, for the most part, with the OVER cashing 21-7-2 since 1992, including 10-0 OVER if the line ranged from 45 to 54 points.  Even better, in the Playoffs, when the home favorite was playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season, those games have gone OVER 24-11.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total.  These two teams met just four weeks ago, and they played a high-scoring game, won by the Bengals, 34-31.  That game sailed over the total of 51 by 14 points.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday at Arrowhead, as playoff rematches of games that went over, also tend to go over the total, and especially if the O/U line is 50+ points, as those games have gone over 65% since 1990.  Kansas City has now played its last 7 games OVER the total, and is also 6-0 OVER with Patrick Mahomes at QB and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Kansas City.  This is the 2nd match-up this season here, at Arrowhead Stadium, between these two teams, and the Bills won Round 1 by 18 points, 38-20.  My numbers rate the Bills as the AFC's best team, so we will happily take Buffalo as an underdog in this match-up with the back-to-back AFC Conference champion Chiefs.  Indeed, the Bills fall into 81-19, 123-58 and 93-52 ATS systems of mine based on their statistical profile, and also 28-9 and 37-19 ATS Playoff systems, based on this particular game's situation.  It's true that the Chiefs do enter this game on an impressive run, which has seen them win 10 of 11 straight-up, and cover seven of their last nine.  But the Bills are 20-5-2 ATS on the road vs. foes with a .500 SU/ATS record, including a perfect 5-0 ATS when the point spread was less than 3 points.  Admittedly, Kansas City does have one of the best NFL head coaches in Andy Reid.  But all of Reid's point spread profit (135-94 ATS) has been on the road and/or as an underdog.  When installed as a home favorite, Reid's team have gone just 82-83-4 ATS, including 2-14 ATS when priced as a revenge-minded home favorite of less than 4 points.  Last week's game vs. New England -- where Buffalo scored touchdowns on its first seven possessions (against a Patriots defense which was allowing just 17.82 ppg) -- put the league on notice about just how good this Bills team can be.  And this might be the last time in quite a while that we see Josh Allen & Co. priced as an underdog.  Take Buffalo + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  We played on the Bucs here, at home, to end the regular season.  Tampa was a big home favorite vs. Carolina in that game, and in my analysis, I pointed out how the Buccaneers had played much worse on the road this season than at home.  And that's generally to be expected with defending Super Bowl champions, as they tend to mightily struggle on the road.  And these home/road splits carry forward into the Playoffs for defending Super Bowl champs, as they've gone 16-12-1 ATS at home, but just 7-9 ATS on the road.  The good news for the Bucs is this Playoff game is at home.  And Tampa's gone 7-2 ATS at home this season, and has covered the spread in those nine home games by a super 6.11 ppg.  In contrast, the Bucs were 3-6 ATS away from home (including a 34-24 upset loss to these Rams), and failed to cover the spread by -4.33 ppg (for a +10.44 relative home/road point spread differential).  Meanwhile, the Rams also performed better at home this season than on the road, and they failed to cover the spread away from home by -0.33 ppg.  None of this bodes well for Los Angeles in this road game.  And nor does the fact that Tom Brady's teams have gone 17-8 ATS in his career when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 9-1 ATS if they lost that earlier game by 10+ points.  Take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  With Aaron Rodgers as its starting quarterback, Green Bay has gone 131-90-5 ATS.  And while those numbers are certainly impressive, they get even better when one looks at how the Packers have done with Rodgers vs. WINNING opponents, when Green Bay was priced from -4 to -8 points.  In this situation, in Rodgers' career, he's led Green Bay to a 20-1 SU record, and 17-3-1 ATS!  The one straight-up loss was against Dak Prescott's Cowboys, on October 16, 2016.  And since that game, Green Bay's gone 10-0 SU/ATS when priced from -4 to -8 vs. winning opposition.  The Packers did lose their last regular season game, at Detroit, as a 3-point road favorite.  But Green Bay is a powerful 8-0 SU/ATS their last eight off an upset loss; and 35-14 ATS their last 49 off an upset road loss; and a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Playoffs off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game.  These two teams played high scoring games in the regular season, with each team scoring 30+ points in a road victory.  But this is the playoffs, not the regular season, and I expect a much better game today on the defensive side of the football.  And the Rams, especially, have tightened things up defensively following their mid-season three game losing streak.  Los Angeles gave up 28, 31 and 36 points in those defeats, and were being roundly criticized.  But since hitting that rock-bottom level, the Rams have gone 5-1, with their only loss coming in overtime.  And they have given up just 18.16 ppg in this stretch.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 9-1 UNDER on turf, and 11-3 UNDER off a SU loss.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over San Francisco.  This is San Francisco's 2nd straight road game, as it played at Los Angeles last Sunday.  The 49ers upset the Rams, 27-24, in overtime for their second straight win, overall.  We'll go against San Francisco on Sunday, as NFL teams playing back to back road games, have covered just 25 of 73 playoff games if they were off an upset win, and not getting 8+ points in the current game.  Moreover, Dallas has covered the point spread by 7.06 ppg at home this season, while the 49ers have covered by just 1.44 ppg on the road.  And the Cowboys also own the better offensive and defensive scoring numbers, as they're 6.05 ppg better on offense, and 0.41 ppg better on defense.  For the season, Dallas has outscored its foes by 10.11 ppg.  And it's not often you get such a team in this price range, at home, in the playoffs.  But when you do, you should generally consider taking the home team, as they're 10-0 ATS in the Playoffs since 1980 when not laying 4+ points, when they've owned a scoring margin of 9.75 (or better).  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders come into this game off three straight upset wins, including a 35-32 overtime win at home last Sunday vs. the Chargers.  We'll fade Las Vegas on Saturday, as road teams have covered just 60 of 157 non-division game off back to back upset wins, including 3-12 ATS in the Playoffs.  And the Raiders are 1-13 ATS off an upset home win over a division rival.  Take Cincinnati minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide to go UNDER the total.  The storyline for this game is undoubtedly whether Georgia can avenge its loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  So, it's worth noting that, in the Kirby Smart-Era, the Bulldogs are 7-1 SU/ATS when installed as a favorite, and playing with revenge.  In their seven wins, they've held their opponents to 8.28 points per game, even though their opponents averaged north of 29 points per game, on offense.  Of course, the one loss was last month to this Alabama team, when the Crimson Tide scored 41 points against the Bulldogs' defense.  I believe that game was more of an anomaly than anything else.  After all, this is a Georgia team which had given up just 6.9 ppg in its first 12 games this season.  And, importantly, it showed just how dominant it can be when it held an excellent Michigan team -- the 3rd best football team in the country this season -- to a meager 84 rushing yards (139.8 yards below its season average) and 11 points (26.6 points below its season average).  Georgia has gone UNDER the total in nine of its last 13 post-season games.  And NCAA Football teams that gave up 14 or less points per game (thru their first 10 games) have gone UNDER 70.9% since 2014 if the O/U line was 52+ points.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game on Monday night.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Carolina.  After ending last season on a 7-0 SU/ATS run to win the Super Bowl, and bringing back all their starters for this season, the expectation was that Tampa would win the NFC Conference, and compete with Kansas City for the league's best overall record.  But as we see time, and time again, defending Super Bowl champs don't always have great regular seasons.  And they surely don't have great seasons against the point spread.  The Buccaneers are 8-8 ATS this season and, like their defending champion predecessors, they struggled greatly as favorites on the road.  Tampa started out 2021 with five straight ATS defeats (including 0-4 ATS as a favorite) before finishing with a 3-1 ATS road mark (and 3-6 ATS overall).  But things were markedly better at home, where Tampa went 5-2 ATS.  This afternoon, the Bucs will look to bounce back off last week's poor game, where they failed to cover the spread by 10.5 points against the New York Jets.  The good news is that Tampa is back home to host the Carolina Panthers, who have lost  (both SU and ATS) six straight games.  And while it's true that teams on ATS losing streaks of 4+ games are essentially 50% plays toward the end of a season, they perform MUCH better at home than on the road.  And in the season's final week, they're especally BAD on the road, as they're 8-22-1 ATS, including 2-7 ATS if they were on a 5-game (or worse) losing streak.  We'll lay the points with Tampa Bay, as defending Super Bowl champs are a super 29-13 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 9+ points, if matched up against .375 (or worse) opposition.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  The Broncos will wind-up their season this afternoon in front of their home faithful.  And, although it's been a losing season, Denver's defense has played well, and has given up more than 23 points just four times this season.  That bodes well for them as a big underdog, as NFL teams that give up 21 or less points per game have gone 113-81 ATS in the regular season as an underdog of +10.5 (or more) points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on LSU and Kansas State OVER the total.  The Tigers will play this Bowl game with two freshman options at quarterback, neither of whom has played.  And both were walk-ons!  So, interim had coach Brad Davis will have his choice between Tavion Faulk and Matt O'Dowd.  The result of this huge question mark at signal caller is that this Over/Under line is the 2nd lowest of LSU's 13 games this season.  And it represents the 2nd lowest Over/Under line for Kansas State, as well.  By my math, the oddsmakers have adjusted this number downward by too much, and there's significant value on the OVER.  Additionally, there are two other factors that I believe will contribute to a higher-scoring game.  First, Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson is healthy, and at full strength.  And he's been throwing and running the ball extremely well in practice leading up to this game, so that bodes well for the Wildcats' offense tonight.  And the 2nd factor is that Kansas State will have a new offensive coordinator for this game.  Quarterbacks coach Collin Klein (who also was a Heisman Trophy finalist in 2012) will call the offensive plays following the dismissal of Courtney Messingham last month.  I expect Klein to put his stamp on the offense, and possibly go up-tempo.  Indeed, several of Kansas State's beat writers have commented on Messingham's failure to ever play at a fast pace, or even call trick plays -- with the implication that Klein will be much different than Messingham.  I look for a relatively-high scoring game tonight.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  We played on the Vikings in the first meeting, and got the $$$ when Minny upended Green Bay, 34-31, in a wild affair.  But this game should have not near that level of drama, as Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has been sidelined.  Sean Mannion will replace Cousins, so that's a big reason for us to be pulling the trigger on Green Bay.  With Aaron Rodgers at QB, the Packers are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game.  And Green Bay is a virtually perfect 9-1 ATS when priced from -11.5 to -13 points with Rodgers, so that also bodes well for Matt LaFleur's men.  As does the fact that Green Bay is 38-13 ATS at home in the final four regular season games, if the Packers owned a win percentage greater than .625.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  The Saints have scored a grand total of 12 points in their last two games combined.  Yet they're favored by more than 6 points this afternoon against a division rival which held them to 7 points in the first meeting.  Admittedly, Carolina is not a very good team right now, as it's lost five straight games (both SU and ATS).  But I still will happily take the points in this matchup.  Indeed, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS losses have gone 103-68-3 ATS.  Moreover, New Orleans is a wallet-breaking 16-44-1 ATS at home vs. division foe off a loss.  And Carolina is 44-21 ATS as a road underdog vs. opponents that don't have a winning record.  Grab the points with the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Houston.  The Texans pulled off a massive upset last week, when they took down the Los Angeles Chargers, 41-29, as a 13-point underdog.  And that was Houston's 2nd straight upset victory, as it went into Jacksonville two weeks ago and surprised the Jaguars with a 30-16 triumph.  Generally, NFL teams are poor after winning a game as a 13-point (or greater) underdog, as they've gone 12-26 ATS their last 38.  And road teams off back to back upset wins are a soft 49-77-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take San Francisco minus the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers UNDER the total.  The Broncos come into this game off back to back unders, and they've also gone under in 12 of 15 games this season, including 6 of 7 road games.  Even better:  dating back 44 years, the Chargers have gone 'under' 81-34-1 at home vs. division rivals, including 18-5 'under' the past eight seasons, and 26-9 'under' when priced from 44 to 47.5 points.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset Denver at home last week.  Unfortunately, they're a poor 6-26 ATS off a home upset win, so that doesn't bode well for the Silver and Black today.  Also, this season, Indianapolis has been the best point spread team.  It ranks #1 (tied with New England) in average point spread differential (+6.40), but the Colts edge the Patriots' in ATS win percentage, as Indy is 10-5 ATS while New England is 9-6 ATS.  The Colts ATS percentage is tied (with Detroit) for 3rd, and only bettered by Green Bay (11-4 ATS) and Dallas (12-3 ATS).  I look for Indianapolis' success to continue this afternoon, especially since it received welcome news when QB Carson Wentz was upgraded to 'probable.'  Take the Colts.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team to go UNDER the total.  These two teams played a mere two weeks ago.  Washington QB Taylor Heinicke missed that game, with Garrett Gilbert starting in his stead, and the over/under line was set at 39.5 points.  Heinicke is back for this game, so the over/under line has been adjusted higher.  But it's been adjusted a bit too much, very likely due to the two teams' most recent scores.  Philadelphia has played its last three games over the total, and has scored 33, 27 and 34 in its last three games.  Meanwhile, Washington gave up 27, 27 and 56 in its last three games.  But teams have gone 'under' the total in 11 of 15 games following a game in which they allowed 54+ points.  And the Eagles have played their last five UNDER following 3 overs (and 26 of their last 36 UNDER following 3 overs), including 14 of 17 UNDER it it was a division game.  Take Washington and Philly to go UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears and Mississippi Rebels 'OVER' the total.  These two teams have both played a string of unders coming into this Sugar Bowl.  Baylor has gone 'under' in four straight games, while Ole Miss has gone 'under' in seven straight.  The result is that this O/U line is the lowest number for an Ole Miss game this season.  The average line on Ole Miss totals this season has been 70.62.  With Baylor's games, it's been 56.25, for a blended average of 63.43.  So, this line has been significantly adjusted for the two teams' string of unders.  Indeed, at the start of Ole Miss' 7-game 'under' streak, the O/U line for its game against Tennessee was 82.5 points!  At the start of Baylor's 4-game 'under' streak, the O/U line for its game against Oklahoma was 63.5 points.  The 'over' falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 62.6%, which plays on certain games -- with over/under lines greater than 55 -- to go 'over' the total, as well as a 2nd angle which has won 58.4%.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Utah.  The Buckeyes were upset, 42-27, as a 6.5-point road favorite by a Michigan team on a mission to end its long, 8-game losing streak to its rival.  But off that upset loss, we'll step in and take Ohio State in this Rose Bowl matchup vs. Utah.  Ohio State is a solid 12-4 ATS away from home off an upset loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if it failed to cover the spread by 18+ points in its previous game.  And it's 42-19-1 ATS away from home when not laying more than 10 points, including 11-1 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .600 and less than .800.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have reeled off seven straight wins to end their season, but I'm not impressed, given the slate of teams they defeated.  Of the seven teams, only Virginia Tech and North Carolina made a bowl game.  And both were slaughtered this past week, as North Carolina lost by 17 as a 12-point favorite vs. South Carolina (failing to cover by 29), while Virginia Tech was shredded by Maryland, 54-10 (and failed to cover by 39.5 points).  Those were two of the three worst Bowl performances relative to the spread this season (Mississippi State was the 2nd worst, at -36.5 points).  In contrast, Oklahoma State came within inches of finishing the season with its own 6-game win streak.  But Baylor's defense stopped Oklahoma State just short of the goal line in the Big 12 Championship game to preserve the win for the Bears.  But if you look at Oklahoma State's opponents down the stretch, you'll see teams like Baylor, Okahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia.  The Bears have yet to play their Bowl game, but Oklahoma and Texas Tech were both dominant, as they covered the spread by 8 and 36.5 points, respectively.  By my numbers Oklahoma State rates as the better team, yet it's been installed as a small underdog.  For technical support, consider that Oklahoma State is a perfect 12-0 ATS its last 12 off an upset loss, if playing an opponent off a win, if Oklahoma State wasn't favored by 4+ points in the current game.  And the Cowboys also fall into several of my favorite NCAA Bowl systems, with records of 136-69, 39-10, 16-4, and 59-22 ATS since 1980.  Grab the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes and Kentucky Wildcats UNDER the total.  The Wildcats come into this game off back to back high-scoring wins, as they tallied 52 vs. Louisville, and 56 against New Mexico State.  The Over/Under line has been installed well below those offensive totals, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the over.  But consider that NCAA games have gone 'UNDER' 73% since 2013 if a team topped 50 points in each of its two previous games, and the line was 52 or less.  That bodes well for the UNDER on this Saturday afternoon.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into two of my best totals systems, with records of 58-33 and 114-66.  Take Kentucky + Iowa 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Michigan.  Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines have had a tremendous turnaround season, but this will be a most difficult opponent for them to defeat.  Going into the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs were 12-0, and had given up just 6.9 ppg on defense.  Yes, Alabama scored 41 in an upset win, but it was an unusual game for Georgia since it knew it would be in these playoffs, even if it loss (while Alabama knew it had to win to advance).  This evening, Georgia will be fully motivated, and I expect it to shut down Michigan, just as it shut down all of its opponents in the regular season.  Georgia is a spectacular 39-15 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Michigan is 5-35 straight-up, and 14-26 ATS as an underdog of +3 (or more) points.  And the SEC Conference has gone 25-8 SU and 23-10 ATS in the Bowls vs. the Big 10 Conference when the SEC team owned the better defense, and was not the underdog.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Alabama.  The Crimson Tide has been installed as a huge double-digit favorite in this game.  I generally don't like to lay points in bowl games, and especially not when the favored team doesn't own the better defense or the better ground attack.  The Bearcats have given up just 16.1 ppg on the season (against foes that average 26 ppg), and fall into a 73.0% ATS defensive underdog system of mine, as well as a 67.5% ATS system which plays on certain bowl teams with better rushing statistics.  The Bearcats are 14-2 ATS their last 16 when not laying 11+ points, including 5-0 ATS their last five as an underdog.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Central Michigan.  The number on this game has come down signficiantly from where it was earlier this morning, so that's all we need to pull the trigger on Jake Dickert's Cougars.  Washington State ended its season on a 6-2 SU run, and the only game it failed to cover was by a half-point (38-24 loss to Oregon, as a 13.5-point underdog).  Today, Wazzu is favored in the Sun Bowl vs. the Mid-American Conference's Chippewas, who won their final four games of the season.  The Cougars are a solid 21-9 ATS when the game is competitively-priced with a point spread of 7 or less, while the Chippewas are a wallet-breaking 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes when the line was 7 or less.  That bodes well for Washington State.  As does the fact that the Pac-12 has gone 18-9 in Bowl games when priced from -4 to -6 points, while the Mid American Conference has burned money as an underdog in that price range, with a 3-8 ATS record.  Finally, the Cougars were much better this season away from home than Central Michigan.  Washington State was 4-1 ATS in its road games, and covered by an average of 16.0 ppg, while the Chips were 3-3 ATS and only covered by 3.0 ppg.  Lay the points with Washington State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons went 10-3 SU and 6-6-1 ATS on the season, while Rutgers was 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS.  The Scarlet Knights didn't qualify for a bowl game, given their losing record, but were tabbed by the Gator Bowl officials to replace Texas A&M, which pulled out due to COVID-19.  It's true that Rutgers comes into this game off back to back blowout losses to Penn State (28-0) and Maryland (40-16).  But we'll grab the points with the Scarlet Knights, as double-digit underdogs have gone 17-3 ATS in the post-season off a loss by 24+ points.  Even better:  Rutgers is 67-42 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Wake Forest is 4-18-1 ATS as a favorite of -5+ points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State/Wisconsin game to go UNDER the total.  Both of these teams have solid defenses, and give up less than 21 points per game.  And Arizona State has now gone 'under' the total in six straight non-conference games (and has gone 'under' by an average of 14.25 ppg.  Wisconsin also has gone 'under' in 5 of 6 non-conference games vs. foes that give up less than 21 points per game.  And the Badgers are 8-1 'under' after being upset in its previous game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over North Carolina.  Shane Beamer's Gamecocks were saddled with an exceptionally difficult schedule this season, and went 6-6.  Four of their six losses were against #3 Georgia, #19 Clemson, #23 Texas A&M, and #25 Kentucky.  And they also fell to SEC Conference foes Tennessee and Missouri, both of which made a Bowl game.  North Carolina, meanwhile, also played four teams ranked among the Top 25, and lost to three of the four:  #5 Notre Dame, #13 Pittsburgh, and #18 NC State.  The Tar Heels' lone win against a Top 25 team was a 58-55 victory vs. Wake Forest.  But the common thread among North Carolina's games vs. top-level teams was that it gave up a ton of points.  UNC surrendered 44 to Notre Dame, 55 to Wake Forest, 30 to Pittsburgh and 34 to NC State.  For the season, North Carolina went just 5-7 ATS, and gave up 31.5 ppg, yet it's favored by double-digits vs. South Carolina.  I'm generally not a fan of laying a lot of points in Bowl games, and even less so if a team has a swiss cheese defense, and has not shown a propensity to cover the number.  Indeed, NCAA Bowl teams have gone a woeful 0-10 ATS if they were favored by 7+ points, did not own a winning ATS record, and gave up 30+ points per game.  Grab the points with South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:15 pm, on Tuesday, in the First Responder Bowl, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals over Air Force.  The Falcons are 9-3, yet have been installed as an underdog vs. the 6-6 Cardinals, who were blown out by 31 points in their previous game by Kentucky (and failed to cover the spread by 34 points).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with Air Force, but consider that, at Game 10 forward, underdogs that own a W/L percentage of at least .250 greater than their opponent have covered just 28.1% when not playing at home.  Even worse:  winning teams off back to back wins (like Air Force), and not getting more than 3 points, have covered just 37% in the post-season vs. foes off a loss, that failed to cover the spread in their previous game by 14+ points.  Louisville also falls into 154-97, 38-9 and 135-67 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Seattle/Chicago game.  In its last game, the Seahawks managed to score just 10 points, in their 20-10 loss at Los Angeles.   But the Seahawks have gone OVER the total in 30 of 47 home games after scoring 10 or less points the previous week in a game which went under the total.  Additionally, this game falls into two totals systems of mine that are 96-52 and 38-16.  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills OVER the total.  The Patriots have gone 'over' the total in each of their last four home games, while Buffalo is 10-4-2 OVER the total its last 16 road games.  We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on this Sunday afternoon, as the OVER falls into a 71-43 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, Buffalo was upset by New England in the season's first meeting, and scored just 10 points in that game.  And you would have to go back 55 games to find the last time Buffalo scored so few points in a home upset loss.  But NFL teams playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they scored 10 (or less) points tend to bounce back on offense in the season's next meeting, as 59% exceeded their offensive ppg average, and the OVER has cashed 66.1%.  Take the Bills and Patriots to go 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Detroit.  We played on the Lions last week as our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month, and easily got the $$$ as Detroit won outright, 30-12, as a 13-point home underdog.  But that was a perfect set-up for Detroit, as it was blown out by the Broncos the previous week.  And Detroit's now 5-0 ATS this season off a point spread defeat.  But it's also 55-83-4 ATS on the road off a SU win.  That doesn't bode well for the Lions on Sunday.  Nor does that fact that, at Game 7 forward, NFL teams with a .200 (or worse) W/L record have covered just 23.3% after beating the point spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  These two teams met here last season, and Detroit upset the Falcons, 23-22.  But the Lions are an awful 7-19 ATS as an underdog of less than 8 points, if they were off a win, and playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars over the New York Jets.  Last week, the Jaguars lost at home to Houston, 30-16, which was their 6th straight loss and 5th straight ATS defeat.  We played on the OVER 39.5 in that game, so we were thrilled with the result.  This week, we'll take Jacksonville to finally break into the win column for the first time in seven weeks.  And our play is as much a play AGAINST New York, as it is a play ON Jacksonville.  Indeed, the Jets are a horrid 2-12 ATS their last 14 (and have covered just 65 of their last 186) at home vs. foe that didn't have a winning record!  And .333 (or worse) teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have gone 112-74 ATS.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Indianapolis Colts.  Last week, we cashed our NFL Game of the Month on the Colts, who snapped New England's 7-game win streak.  And we also cashed our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month on the Lions against the Cardinals, when Detroit upset Arizona, as a 13-point underdog.  This week, we'll completely reverse course, and TAKE Arizona, and go AGAINST Indianapolis.  The Cardinals are a dominant 29-6-1 ATS at home when not laying 3+ points against a foe off a SU/ATS win, while Indy is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog off a win vs. foes off back to back losses.  And teams (like Indianapolis) off wins over foes that were on a 6-game (or better) win streak have gone 34-50 ATS in their next game when not laying 3+ points. 

At 2:30 pm, on Saturday, in the Camellia Bowl, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Georgia State.  Ball State punched its ticket for the post-season when it defeated Buffalo, 20-3, as a 6-point favorite, to end its season, and reach the .500 mark.  The Panthers were 7-5, and finished second in the Sun Belt's East division, and are in a Bowl game for the third straight year.  We'll fade Georgia State here, as Sun Belt teams are a woeful 1-14-1 ATS in the post-season when favored against foes off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Ball State has been terrific as an underdog off less than 20 points away from Muncie, IN, as it's 9-1 ATS.  And the Cardinals also fall into a 42-17 ATS statistical system of mine, as well as a 156-97-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain bowl underdogs of more than 3 points.