At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the South Alabama/Appalachian State game.  Last week, the Jaguars put up 87 points vs. Northwestern State.  And that was the most points scored by an FBS team since Fresno State walloped New Mexico, 94-17, on October 5, 1991.  We'll look for a much lower-scoring game tonight, as FBS games have gone 62% under when the O/U line was > 60 points, and a team scored more than 70 in its previous game.  Even better:  the Jaguars have gone 32-14-2 UNDER in conference games with O/U lines > 53 points.  Likewise, Appalachian State is 21-12 UNDER in conference games with O/U lines > 53 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

The Bengals suffered the biggest upset loss in Week 1 when they lost to the Patriots as a 7.5-point favorite. But teams that get upset in Week 1 as favorites of more than 6 points tend to bounce back in Week 2, and have gone 27-10 ATS. Additionally, the Bengals are an awesome 14-2 ATS as an underdog of more than 2 points. Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Interestingly, this is the 2nd straight week that the Detroit Lions will be playing an opponent it defeated in last year’s playoffs. Last week, Detroit covered by a half-point in overtime vs. the Rams. And I also like Detroit to cover the spread in this home game vs. Tampa Bay, which blew out Washington, 37-20, last Sunday. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 21-5-1 ATS when playing an opponent not off a straight-up loss.  And teams playing their road openers at Detroit have gone just 12-23-1 ATS, including 4-12-1 ATS off a win by 17+ points.  Take the Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Jacksonville.  The Browns were upset at home by the Dallas Cowboys, 33-17, in Week 1.  I like playing on road teams in Week 2 off double-digit upset losses, as they have bounced back to cover 65.3%.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over New Orleans. The Saints had the biggest margin of victory in Week 1, with a 37-point triumph over Carolina. Now, they’re getting a whopping 6.5 points from Dallas. The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab those points with the Saints. But be careful, as teams off a 20-point (or greater) win in Week 1 are 0-9 ATS their last nine (and 24-42-6 ATS since 1982) when not favored by more than 3 points. I’ll lay the points with Dallas.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Washington Commanders.  Washington has long been horrible at home vs. non-winning teams, if Washington wasn’t an underdog of 2 or more points.  In this situation, Washington has gone 35-81 ATS.  The Giants were a 1-point home favorite last week and were blown out by Minnesota, 28-6.  I’ll take New York to bounce back, as division road underdogs off an upset loss by more than 10 points have gone 109-69 ATS.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Tennessee/Kent State game.  The Golden Flashes have gone 33-19-2 UNDER in FBS games with O/U lines > 55 points, including 5-0 UNDER their last five, and 22-9 UNDER on the road.  We'll look for the Volunteers and Golden Flashes to play a relatively low-scoring game on Saturday night.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Hokies have started slowly this season, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS after failing to get the $$$ last week in a 31-14 win over Marshall.  This evening, the Hokies will battle the Monarchs in Norfolk, and have been installed as a double-digit favorite.  We'll lay the points, as Va Tech is 11-4 ATS on the road off back to back ATS defeats.  And it also falls into a 152-89 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that have underperformed ATS on the season.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Ball State.  The Cardinals have been installed as a massive underdog this afternoon vs. the #10-ranked Hurricanes.  And Ball State has been woeful as big underdogs, going 0-13 SU and 2-10-1 ATS when catching 21+ points, while Mid-American Conference teams are 14-25-1 ATS when installed as underdogs of > 34 points.  Take Miami-Fla.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Oregon State.  Dan Lanning's men have burned bettors the first two weeks, with ATS losses vs. Idaho and Boise State.  We'll look for a bounce-back on this Saturday, as the Ducks are a solid 20-10 ATS off back to back point spread defeats.  Additionally, Oregon is 6-0 ATS its last six, and 20-6-1 ATS its last 27 on the road vs. a foe off a SU win, if Oregon wasn't off a point spread win.  And the Ducks are 8-2-1 ATS in this rivalry when priced from -13.5 to -19.5 points.  We'll take the Ducks to blow out the Beavers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats over the Arizona State Sun Devils.  Last week, the Bobcats had a hugely impressive win, as they throttled Texas-San Antonio, 49-10, as a 2-point home favorite.  The Sun Devils also were victorious, with a 30-23 win at home vs. Mississippi State, as a 6.5-point favorite.  And that followed a home blowout win (48-7) over Wyoming to kick off the season.  We'll fade the Sun Devils in their first road game tonight, as road teams off back to back SU/ATS home wins over FBS teams to start the season have covered just 39.2% since 1980 when they weren't getting > 4 points.  Even better:  Arizona State is a wallet-busting 15-30-2 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins.  We'll take the homestanding Bobcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Atlanta Falcons have not had a winning season since 2017, while Pittsburgh has never had a losing season in Mike Tomlin's 17 years as the head coach.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if Tomlin's 17-season streak ended this year.  We'll lay the points with Atlanta, as NFL teams off back to back losing seasons have covered 80% over the last 43 years in Week 1, when favored (or PK) vs. an opponent off back to back winning seasons.  The Falcons are an awesome 19-6 ATS in their home openers, while the Steelers have started the season off slowly, going 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 season openers.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last season, the Panthers lost both games to their division rival, including a 20-17 defeat in their home opener, and 28-6 in December.  I like playing on revenge-minded underdogs (or PK) in the season opener, as they've cashed 55.2% over the last 34 years.  Even better, if our team lost the previous game to its opponent by double-digits, and is now getting more than 3 points in Week 1, our revengers have cashed 62%.  The road team has dominated this division rivalry, with a 29-16-2 ATS record, including 20-8 ATS as an underdog, 14-3-1 ATS with revenge.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Western Michigan.  The Buckeyes are loaded this season and are one of the favorites to win the NCAA Championship in January.  Ohio State is a reliable 38-22 ATS when priced from -17 to -44 points, including a perfect 3-0 ATS vs. Mid-American Conference foes.  And the Big 10 Conference has generally beat up on MAC opponents when the line was higher than -20 points, going 126-3 straight-up, and 76-53 ATS since 1980.  Lay the lumber with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over Sam Houston St.  Both of these teams kicked off 2024 with a blowout win.  UCF annihilated New Hampshire, 57-3, while the Bearkats routed Rice, 34-14, as a 9-point underdog.  We'll fade Sam Houston St. on Saturday, as teams that won by double-digits in their season opener as 9-point (or greater) underdogs have covered the spread in their next game just 34% since 1980.  Moreover, the Knights are 8-2 ATS their last 10 (including 5-0 ATS their last five) when favored by more than 7 vs. non-conference foes off a win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Marshall.  Last season, the Thundering Herd knocked off Va Tech in Huntington, 24-17.  The Hokies have long been a great bet when playing with revenge, as they're 58-36-2 ATS in that situation, including 22-9 ATS when coming off a SU loss.  And the Hokies are, indeed, coming off a loss, as they were upset by Vanderbilt, in overtime, last Saturday.  That bodes well for Virginia Tech on Saturday.  As does the fact that Marshall is a wallet-breaking 47-66-2 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes, including 26-40-1 ATS on the road.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Maryland.  Last season, Maryland went into East Lansing, and blew out the Spartans, 31-9.  We'll take Michigan State as a revenge-minded road underdog, as the Terrapins have covered just 15 of their last 45 vs. revenge-minded foes.  Even better:  Big 10 underdogs of +10 or less points have cashed 61.3% when playing with revenge from a home loss the previous season.  Take Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets opened the season with a stunning win over Florida State.  But then Boston College also knocked off the Seminoles this past Monday, so Georgia Tech's victory has lost some of its luster.  The Yellow Jackets have been installed as a road favorite at Syracuse.  But Georgia Tech has been woeful has a road fave, with a 2-9 ATS record.  Even worse for the Jackets:  ACC Conference road favorites have gone just 86-134-6 ATS vs. conference foes that weren't off a SU/ATS win.  Finally, the Orange are 28-11-1 ATS at home off a win, when matched up against a foe off back-to-back wins (including 10-0 ATS when priced from -3.5 to +6.5 points).  Take Syracuse + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Florida Atlantic.  Last week, Army blew out Lehigh, 42-7, while the Owls lost by six at Michigan State, 16-10, as a 13-point underdog.  Army has been installed as a road underdog vs. the Owls.  And we'll take the points, as Army is a solid 25-13-2 ATS as an underdog away from home, while Florida Atlantic is an awful 1-9 ATS at home vs. non-division foes.  Army also falls into 95-62 and 158-61 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams (like Florida Atlantic) off ATS wins.  Take the Black Knights.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Texas.  Last season, Michigan went 15-0 to win the National Championship.  This season, the Wolves were ranked #9 in the preseason poll, and got off to a slow start last week vs. Fresno.  Michigan won the game, 30-10, but didn't cover the spread.  I look for the Wolverines to bounce back with a stronger game on Saturday afternoon.  They've been installed as a home dog vs. #3-ranked Texas.  And defending champs have covered 69.5% since 1980 as an underdog off a point spread loss, when matched up against an opponent off a SU win (and 83% as home dogs).  Additionally, Texas has covered just 8 of 25 games as non-conference road favorites.  Grab the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers + the points over James Madison.  The 49ers have been installed as a home underdog to kick off the 2024 season.  We'll grab the points with Biff Poggi's men, as home underdogs of 13 or less points (or PK) have gone 175-130 ATS in Game 1 of the season when not playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Penn State.  These two teams met last season in Happy Valley, and the Nittany Lions mauled the Mountaineers, 38-15.  This rematch will be played in Morgantown, and WVU has been installed as a single-digit home dog.  We'll grab the points, as revenge-minded, single-digit home dogs have cashed 69% ATS in their home opener, dating back to Sept 18, 2010.  Even better:  Penn State is a dismal 16-27-1 ATS as a favorite of 14 or less points vs. a revenge-minded, non-conference foe (including 4-13-1 ATS if it won the previous meeting by 15+ points).  Take West Virginia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers (on the moneyline), to win the game, straight-up, over the Kansas City Chiefs.  This is a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl won by the Chiefs, 31-20, as a 1.5-point favorite.  Since then, the two teams have met once.  And that was last season, in San Francisco, in RB Christian McCaffrey's first game as a 49er following the trade with the Carolina Panthers.  The Chiefs were favored by 1 point, and won, 44-23.  Kansas City is, without a doubt, playing its best football of the season.  It won impressively at Buffalo and Baltimore to reach this game.  And it has been well-chronicled how well the Chiefs have performed in the underdog role (17-4-1 ATS, including 15-1-1 ATS away from home).  But the 49ers have also excelled in the role of small favorite.  San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 4 points.  And it has covered the spread in those games by an average of 16.25 ppg.  Notably, six of those seven games involved opponents that qualified for the playoffs.  The 49ers have also been terrific against teams off upset wins (8-1-1 ATS) and against opponents off back-to-back wins (59-39-3 ATS).  And, while it's true that the Niners failed to cover the spread in their three previous games, the Chiefs are 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off 3 ATS losses!  Even better:  NFL Playoff teams that weren't getting 3+ points, have gone 0-9 ATS if they covered their previous game by 10+ points, and their opponent was on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  The 49ers will no doubt be prepared for Steve Spagnuolo's blitz packages.  And Brock Purdy led the NFL, statistically, this season when facing a blitz.  He ranked #1 with 9.9 yards per attempt, and also had the best QB rating (127.9).  I will take the 49ers to win the game, straight-up, on the moneyline.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Detroit.  This is the 49ers' 3rd straight game at home, and they failed to cover the point spread in the first two (with a 21-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, and a narrow 3-point win last week vs. the Green Bay Packers).  I think the 3rd time will be the charm, as NFL home favorites have covered 65.9% since 1980 off back to back ATS losses at home.  Even better for San Francisco:  its defense ranked among the top 3 in points allowed (17.5) in the regular season, while Detroit's defense ranked in the bottom 10 (23.2).  Detroit was especially poor against the pass, as its defense ranked next-to-last in passing yards per attempt (7.8).  In contrast, the 49ers ranked #5, and gave up just 6.4 yards per pass attempt.  In NFL Conference Championship games, road teams that give up more than 19.3 ppg have covered the spread just 33% of the time.  And, finally, Detroit is a dreadful 14-32-1 ATS on the road if it owned a win percentage of .700 (or better), and it won its previous game, including 0-10 ATS its last 10, if it was an underdog of +5 or more points.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills OVER the total.  Last week, the Chiefs held the high-octane Miami Dolphins' offense -- which was averaging 29 ppg -- to just 7 points.  And that game went under the total of 43.5.  But NFL teams that hold a Playoff opponent to 20+ points less than their scoring average (and went Under the total in that win), have proceeded to go 12-0 OVER the total in their next game.  Moreover, after its 31-17 win against the Steelers, Buffalo's home playoff games have now gone 11-1 Over when the line was 48 or less points.  Take the Chiefs and Bills Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Bucs to go OVER the total.  This game will be played at Ford Field, which is an enclosed stadium.  And enclosed stadia tend to be higher scoring as they're not exposed to the (sometimes) inclement weather, and have gone Over the total 59.5 percent since 1980.  That's one reason I favor a high-scoring game.  Another is that Detroit has gone 18-2 Over at home if it wasn't off a game which went Over the total (including 12-0 Over if the O/U line was 47+ points).  Take the Lions and Bucs Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Tampa Bay.  We played on Detroit last week as a 3-point home favorite and unfortunately lost, as Detroit won that game, 24-23.  We'll come right back with Dan Campbell's men in this Divisional round game.  The Lions are a super 18-5 ATS under Campbell if their opponent wasn't off a straight-up loss.  Additionally, Tampa Bay has held its last two opponents (Eagles, Panthers) to 9 combined points.  And NFL teams have covered just 31% in the Playoffs after not giving up 10+ points in either of their two previous games.  Take Detroit to blow out the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay.  The 49ers had last week off following their 21-20 loss to the LA Rams, as a 6-point home favorite, to end the regular season.  Meanwhile, the Packers went into Dallas and shocked the Cowboys last week, 48-32, as a 7-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, it's tough to pull off two road upsets in a row in the Playoffs.  We'll fade Green Bay, as NFL road teams, with a sub-.666 record, have cashed just 40% on the post-season road since 1980, if they won as a road dog in the Playoffs the previous week.  Even worse for Green Bay:  the 49ers are 70-31 ATS off an upset loss, if the 49ers were favored by 3+ points in their previous game.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Houston.  We had a big play on the Texans last Saturday, and were rewarded with a 45-14 blowout win.  We also played against Baltimore in its last game, and got the $$$ with the Steelers, when they defeated the Ravens, 17-10.  Here, however, we'll take the Ravens and fade Houston off its 31-point victory.  Indeed, underdogs of +5 to +15 points, off a win by 28+ points, have gone 0-13 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss.  That doesn't bode well for Houston.  Nor does the fact that the Ravens are a spectacular 45-14 ATS when playing a non-division foe that owns a winning record, if the Ravens weren't off an ATS win.  And Houston is a horrible 22-39-3 ATS off an upset win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go OVER the total.  Last week, the Tampa Bay Bucs won, 9-0, at Carolina.  Off that extremely low scoring game, we'll look for a bounce higher tonight.  Indeed, NFL games have gone OVER the total 62-40-3 when the line was < 46 points, if a team's prior game totaled less than 14 points (including 4-1 Over in the Playoffs).  Likewise, Tampa has gone Over the total 16 of 21 at home following a low-scoring game which totaled 28 points or less.  Finally, the Eagles are 31-11 Over the total when the line was 44 < points, if the Eagles scored less than 24 points in their previous game.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Over the total.  The weather forecast for Buffalo, NY on Sunday is calling for winds in the 15 to 25 mph range.  This has caused the O/U line to be adjusted downward.  I think the move has been too severe, and that there's value on the over.  Buffalo's home playoff games have also tended to be relatively high scoring, as the Over has cashed 10 straight when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Likewise, the Steelers are 15-1 Over their last 16 Playoff games (and 24-6 Over their last 30) when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Over the total.  The weather forecast for Buffalo, NY on Sunday is calling for winds in the 15 to 25 mph range.  This has caused the O/U line to be adjusted downward.  I think the move has been too severe, and that there's value on the over.  Buffalo's home playoff games have also tended to be relatively high scoring, as the Over has cashed 10 straight when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Likewise, the Steelers are 15-1 Over their last 16 Playoff games (and 24-6 Over their last 30) when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Los Angeles went into San Francisco and upset the 49ers last Sunday, 21-20, while Detroit downed the Minnesota Vikings, 30-20.  The Lions have excelled since Dan Campbell took over as head coach.  They've gone 21-13 SU and 24-9-1 ATS, including an awesome 16-2-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a losing record.  On Sunday night, the Lions will welcome the Rams to Ford Field for Detroit's first home playoff game in 30 years.  This will be the Rams' 3rd straight road game, and NFL single-digit dogs off an upset win, and playing their 3rd straight road game have covered just 35.7% since 1980.  Additionally, the Rams are a poor 14-29 ATS off back to back wins (including 1-7 ATS off an upset win).  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Green Bay.  The Cowboys annihilated their opponents here, at home, this season.  Dallas went 8-0 and covered the point spread by an average of 12.87 ppg!  Dating back to last season, the Cowboys' home win streak is 16 games, and it's gone 12-4 ATS, and has covered the spread in those home games by 9.78 ppg.  Green Bay was 4-5 ATS on the road this season (but 1-5 ATS in non-division road games, compared to 3-0 ATS vs. its division rivals).  Dallas and Green Bay did meet last season at Lambeau Field, and the Packers came away with a 31-28 victory.  Unfortunately for the Packers, revenge-minded favorites of -7 (or more) points have covered 67% in the NFL Playoffs.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs' offense was a mess for much of the season, and it finished the regular season with an offensive average of 21.82 ppg.  In contrast, Miami averaged 29.0 ppg.  To put Kansas City's number into context, it averaged 35.31, 28.18, 29.56, 28.23, and 29.17 ppg over the previous five seasons.  We'll grab the points with the Dolphins as underdogs have cashed 67% the last 44 seasons in the Playoffs, if their offense averaged 4.30+ ppg more than their opponent.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Cleveland.  The Texans punched a spot into the Playoffs with a road win at Indianapolis, while Cleveland rested many of its players, and mailed in its game at Cincy last week, with a 31-14 loss.  These two teams met here, in Houston, three weeks ago, and the Browns were victorious, 36-22.  We'll take Houston to avenge that loss, as revenge-minded NFL home teams have cashed 69% in the Playoffs if the two teams recently met within the three previous games.  Even better:  the Browns are a wallet-breaking 0-12 ATS off a SU/ATS loss if it defeated its opponent earlier in the season.  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Buffalo/Miami game.  Buffalo has been installed as a road favorite.  And it's 8-0 Under its last eight as a road favorite of less than 6 points, while Miami is 42-21 Under at home when playing with revenge.  Take the Under.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Dolphins were blown out last week by Baltimore, 56-19.  But winning teams, off a loss by more than 7 points, have covered 86% as home underdogs since 1980, if they were playing with revenge.  And the Dolphins do, indeed, have revenge, since Buffalo blasted them by 28 points earlier this season.  I'll take the points with the home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers to go Over the total.  The Chiefs are not incentivized to win, so they will turn to QB Blaine Gabbert to line up under center for this game, while Patrick Mahomes will be on the sidelines.  The line has been adjusted, of course, to compensate for the players who won't be available, but I think there's significant value now on the Over, as it falls into a 24-4 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, the Chargers have gone Over the total 14 of the last 17 years in their final game, while KC has gone 6-2 Over in their final road game.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Atlanta/New Orleans game.  The Over falls into a 67-36 Totals system of mine, and I look for a relatively high scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Carolina/Tampa Bay game.  The Panthers and Buccaneers both played poorly on offense last week.  Carolina was shutout, 26-0, by Jacksonville, while Tampa mustered just 13 points in a 10-point home loss to New Orleans.  I expect a higher scoring game this week, as NFL games tend to go over the total more often than not when both teams scored less than 14 points in their previous game.  And the Over also falls into a 109-58 Totals system of mine.  Take Carolina/Tampa Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Detroit.  These two teams met two game ago in Minneapolis, and the Lions came away with a 30-24 victory.  The story of that game was 4 interceptions thrown by Vikings QB Nick Mullens.  That led to Mullens being benched for last week's game vs. Green Bay.  But after the Vikes trailed 23-3 at halftime, coach Kevin O'Connell had second thoughts and inserted Mullens into the game to replace the ineffective Jaren Hall.  Mullens played better vs. Green Bay, as he was 13-of-22 for 113 yards and a TD.  But it was not enough as the Vikes fell, 33-10.  It's unclear who will start at QB for Minnesota in this game, which it must win if it is to have any shot at the Playoffs.  But regardless of who is under center, we'll take the road underdog, as Minnesota falls into a 152-77 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Grab the points with the Vikings.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Cleveland Browns.  Cincy lost at Cleveland, 24-3, to open the season.  We'll take the Bengals to close out the season with some payback, as Cleveland is a poor 5-21 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes that Cleveland defeated earlier in the season.  Additionally, the Bengals are 25-9 ATS in their final home game of the season, if they weren't laying more than 7 points.  Take Cincinnati.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, the Titans were blown out, 26-3, by Houston, while the Jaguars shut out Carolina, 26-0.  We'll take Tennessee to bounce back, as NFL home dogs  (or PK) have cashed 64% since 1980 off a loss by 23+ points, if their opponent was off a win by 23+ points.  Take Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Panthers were shut out, 26-0, by Jacksonville.  I look for Carolina to bounce back as teams off shutout losses have gone 66-40 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Even better, over the last 44 years, home underdogs have cashed 58.0 ATS in the last 3 weeks of the season, if they were off an SU/ATS loss.  Finally, the Panthers fall into 145-67, 84-25 and 157-72 ATS systems of mine.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans Under the total.  These two teams met earlier this season.  The Over/Under for that game was just 40 points. And it went over the total, as the two teams combined to score 51. This O/U line is significantly higher than the first meeting. I think it's too high. The Indianapolis Colts have not played a game with an Over/Under line this high in any of their last 30 games. And the Texans have only played two games this season with an over/under line north of 47 points. Both of those were 48, and Houston went under the total in each game. The Texans are 10-6 Under this season, and are 46-35 Under when the line was greater than 47 points. And the Colts are 86-59 under at home vs. division rivals, including 26-15 Under if the season's first meeting went Over the total.  Take the Under.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens are 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS, and will be the #1 seed in the AFC following their 56-19 blowout of the Miami Dolphins.  The Steelers are still in the running for the Playoffs.  And though they can still get in with a loss (if the Broncos win and the Jaguars lose), their chances will be greatly improved with a win.  We'll lay the points with Pittsburgh, as it's 81-34 ATS vs. foes that scored 23+ points in their previous game, if that foe owned an ATS win pct. of .400 (or better).  Additionally, Baltimore is 2-10 ATS at home vs. the rival Steelers, if Baltimore had a winning record ATS.  Lay the points with Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Washington.  The Longhorns have the better ground game, as they're averaging 189 yards per game (compared to 125.2 by Washington).  And Texas' yards per rush is also favorable (4.9 vs 4.5).  All things being equal, I prefer to play on the team with the better ground game in the semifinals or championship games.  Indeed, the team with the better offensive YPR has gone 27-8 ATS their last 35.  That bodes well for Texas on Monday night.  As does the fact that Washington is a soft 6-12 ATS its last 18 as an underdog of 7 or less points.  Take the Longhorns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Washington/Texas game.  This game falls into my two best College Football Totals systems, which are 124-54 and 84-30.  Additionally, the Longhorns are surrendering just 17.54 ppg, and rank #11 in the country in defense.  This is the highest total they've had this season (and, in my estimation, too high).  Texas is 44-22 Under when the O/U line was greater than 58 points, while Washington is 26-18-3 Under with a line of 58+ points.  And, in the post-season, teams with defenses that give up less than 19 ppg are on a 60.5% under run when the O/U line was 53+ points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Alabama.  This is the 3rd straight season Michigan has made the College Football playoff, but the first that it entered as the #1 team in the country.  And its #1 ranking is warranted.  In 2021, Michigan was overmatched by a dominant Georgia team, which had a defense giving up just 9.5 ppg.  Then, last season, Michigan was really good, and led by its defense which was allowing just 13.3 ppg.  Unfortunately, they couldn't contain TCU's Quentin Johnson, and were burned for 51 points.  But this season, Michigan's defense has been the country's best (and the only defense to allow less than 10.0 ppg).  Texas' defense ranks 11th (17.54 ppg), Alabama's defense ranks 15th (18.38) and Washington's defense ranks 49th (23.62).  This is the 4th time a team was in the NCAA semifinals or championship game with a defense that gave up less than 10 ppg.  All three of the other teams won 15+ point blowouts, and covered by an average of 15.3 ppg.  The Wolverines are 26-13-2 ATS the last 3 seasons, including 14-3 ATS when not favored by 17+ points.  After knocking on the door the past 2 seasons, I expect Jim Harbaugh's men to bang it down this season.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Tennessee.  The Volunteers ended their regular season with 3 straight point spread defeats.  And now they've been installed as a sizable favorite vs. Iowa.  I don't want any part of Tennessee as a favorite, as NCAA teams have covered just 86 of 207 in the post season when favored by more than 1 points, if they were off back to back ATS losses to end the regular season.  Additionally, Iowa is 78-55-4 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, and 14-7-1 ATS its last 22 Bowl games.  Take the Hawkeyes + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Monday, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers + the points over LSU.  The Badgers have been installed as a huge underdog vs. LSU.  We'll happily grab the points with Luke Fickell's men, as Wisconsin is 38-15-2 ATS its last 55 games when getting more than 6 points.  Even better:  its defense gives up 8.83 ppg less than LSU's defense.  And NCAA teams that give up 8.83 points less than their foes are on a 61.4% run in the post-season.  Take Wisconsin + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Kansas City.  The Bengals lost in the Playoffs to the Chiefs last season, so that will be added incentive for Zac Taylor's men on Sunday.  Both of these teams come into this game off losses.  Cincy was blown out by Pittsburgh on Saturday, while the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Monday.  I like the underdog Bengals here, as they're 14-1 ATS when installed as an underdog of more than 2 points.  Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Detroit.  After losing to the Miami Dolphins last week, the Cowboys are now 1-12 ATS their last 13 on the road vs winning teams that were in the Playoffs the previous season. The good news for Dallas, then, in this game is that it is not on the road, and Detroit wasn't in the Playoffs last season. Dallas has played 5 games the past two seasons at home vs. winning clubs, and the Cowboys have won all 5, and have gone 3-2 straight-up. Even better: winning NFL teams have gone 41-20 ATS as a single-digit home favorite (or PK) off back to back SU/ATS road losses. Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Under in the Detroit/Dallas game.  The Lions come into this game off back to back Overs, as they blew out Denver, 42-17, and won at Minnesota, 30-24.  But off those two high-scoring games, we'll take the Under on Saturday night, as Detroit has gone 62-42 Under off back to back Overs, including 8-0 UNDER when the O/U line was 52+ points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets + the points over Wyoming.  The Rockets went 11-1 in the regular season, and reached the Mid-American Conference title game, where they lost to Miami-Ohio, 23-14.  Wyoming ended the season with back to back blowout wins to finish 8-4, but failed to reach the Mountain West championship game.  I like playing on .692 (or better) underdogs in the Bowls that played in their title game against opponents that did not reach their conference championship game.  Our Bowl underdogs have cashed 58.2%.  Moreover, favorites off back to back wins have gone 46-70-3 ATS away from home in the post-season vs. .846 (or better) opponents.  Take Toledo + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Florida St.  The Bulldogs were upset by the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship game.  Off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with Georgia this afternoon, as Georgia is 10-1 ATS off an upset loss against an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if Georgia wasn't getting 7+ points.  Even better:  undefeated teams (like Florida State), with a 5-0 (or better) record, have covered just 21.4% since 1994 when getting more than 14 points.  Take the Bulldogs.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Maryland.  The Tigers suffered a heartbreaking loss to rival Alabama at season's end, and finished with a 6-6 record.  The good news for Auburn is that it will be able to redeem itself in this Music City Bowl game vs. Maryland.  And it's 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS when favored off back to back losses, if it didn't own a winning record.  The Terrapins will play this game without star QB, Taulia Tagovailoa, who is their all-time leader in passing yards (11,356), as well as the Big 10's all time leader.  In his stead will be Billy Edwards Jr., who had a QB rating of 59.4 (compared to Tagovailoa's 73.6 rating).  I expect Maryland to drop off significantly on offense without Tagovailoa, and we'll lay the points with Auburn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio St Buckeyes minus the points over Missouri.  Ryan Day's men had high hopes to be in the FBS playoffs.  They were ranked #1 in the country, but lost their season-ending game at Michigan, 30-24.  I look for Ohio State to bounce back off that defeat, as it's a super 16-5 ATS away from home off a loss.  Meanwhile, Missouri is 2-11 ATS in the post-season off a straight-up win, and 19-40 ATS off a win, if they were playing an opponent off a road loss.  Take Ohio State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Iowa St.  This game will be played at the Tigers' home field in Memphis, so the Tigers will have a very friendly crowd in their corner.  Memphis is a solid 13-5 ATS as a home underdog, including 6-0 ATS when getting more than 5 points, while Iowa State is a soft 5-8 ATS as a double-digit road favorite.  Grab the points with the homestanding Tigers.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Notre Dame.  This Sun Bowl game's over/under line has been installed around 41 points.  And that bodes well for Oregon State, as it's 11-1 ATS in games with O/U lines < 52 points.  Additionally, Oregon State is 17-8-1 ATS as an underdog.  And the underdog has cashed in 30 of 39 Sun Bowls, including 7-0 ATS off back to back losses.  Take the Beavers + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over the Clemson Tigers.  The Wildcats pulled off a big upset to end their season, with a 38-31 win over rival, Louisville.  Kentucky has been installed as an underdog this afternoon in the Gator Bowl, and we'll grab the points, as Kentucky is 35-18-1 ATS in non-conference games, if it won its previous game, straight-up, including 5-1-1 ATS off an upset win.  And Clemson has covered just 3 of 11 bowl games when favored by 3 or more points.  Finally, the SEC conference is a solid 69-50 ATS as a post-season underdog vs. non-conference foes, including 23-11 ATS vs. the ACC conference.  Take Kentucky + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the Alamo Bowl game to go Under the total.  This game will pit the Oklahoma Sooners vs. the Arizona Wildcats.  Each of these teams ended the season with high-scoring victories.  The Sooners put up 69 points in a 24-point win over TCU, while Arizona tallied 59 in a 36-point blowout of rival, Arizona St.  Dating back to 2013, match-ups between teams that scored 54+ points in their previous game have gone under 61% of the time.  Additionally, Arizona is 19-7 Under when the line has been 56+ points.  And the Under falls into a 139-62 Totals system of mine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:45 pm, our selection is on the Kansas St. Wildcats minus the points over NC State.  The Wildcats were a 9.5-point home favorite, but fell by 7 points, 42-35, to Iowa St at the end of the regular season.  But K-State is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS off a loss since 2022, and 81-46-1 ATS off a loss since 1990 (including 17-1 ATS its last 18 when it failed to cover by 13+ points in its previous game).  Additionally, ACC Conference teams off a win have covered just 23% away from home vs. Big 12 foes off a loss.  We'll take the Wildcats to blow out NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over SMU.  This game will be played less than 5 miles from B.C.'s campus, at Fenway Park, so the crowd will be decidedly in the Eagles' corner.  The Mustangs are laying double-digits, which is always a high tariff in a Bowl game.  Indeed, double-digit dogs are 88-67 ATS in the Bowls since 1981.  Even worse:  when SMU has had a winning record, it's a miserable 10-41 ATS away from home when priced from +10.5 to -14 points.  Grab the points with Boston College.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Louisville.  The Trojans lost, 38-20, to rival UCLA at season's end.  We'll grab the points with the Trojans, as they're 25-10 ATS as an underdog off a SU/ATS loss.  Take USC + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over West Virginia.  The Mountaineers have woefully underperformed in the Bowls, as they're 7-24 ATS including 0-14 ATS when not getting 3+ points.  Take North Carolina as a big underdog.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Green Wave lost coach Willie Fritz to the University of Houston, and have a lot of player absences as well, which is why they're catching double-digits this afternoon.  We'll happily take the points, as double-digit Bowl underdogs have gone 83-62 ATS at home, or on neutral fields.  Even better:  Tulane is 10-0 ATS away from home when not laying 10+ points.  Take the Green Wave.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls + the points over Texas State.  This Lone Star State battle in the First Responder Bowl will take place in Dallas, Texas.  We'll grab the points with Rice, primarily because of its advantages on the defensive side of the ball.  Texas State ranks #104 in yards given up, at 414.3 (Rice is #55 at 370.1), and #116 in points allowed, at 33.83 (Rice is #66, at 26.67).  And Texas State's porous defense has triggered negative systems of mine that are 49-103, 34-76 ATS, and 26-60 ATS.  Finally, the Owls are 11-4 ATS as an underdog (or PK), while the Bobcats are a soft 10-16 ATS as a favorite, including 1-8 ATS vs. winning ATS foes.  Grab the points with Rice.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Bowling Green.  The Golden Gophers stumbled at the end of the season, with four straight losses (both SU and ATS).  But we'll still take them as a small favorite over a Mid-American Conference foe.  Big 10 Conference teams have excelled in the Bowls off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, as they've gone 13-4-1 ATS.  And teams off 3+ losses have gone 34-25-1 ATS in the Bowls since 1983.  Meanwhile, MAC Conference teams are a soft 14-30-3 ATS in the post-season vs. an opponent off a SU loss.  Take Minnesota minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders Over the total.  We played on each of these teams to go over the total last week, and cashed both, as the Raiders put up 63 points in a 63-21 win over the Chargers, while the Chiefs tallied 27 in a 27-17 victory over New England.  We'll come right back with the Over in this divisional matchup on Christmas Day as it falls into 67-35 and 109-57 Totals systems of mine.  Additionally, six of the last seven meetings between these two rivals have gone OVER the total.  And those seven games have averaged 57.28 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Chicago Bears.  This is the 3rd time this season the Bears have been installed as a point spread favorite, and they've yet to cover in that role.  Even worse, Chicago is 23-38-2 ATS its last 63 games as a favorite, including 11-25-2 ATS when favored by less than 5 points.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 21-6-1 ATS as a single-digit road underdog, including 13-1 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Grab the points with Arizona.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  I'm well aware of how poor Dallas has done vs. top-level teams.  But off its 21-point loss to Buffalo, we'll step in and take the Cowboys today.  Dallas is 22-12-1 ATS off a 20-point (or worse) loss when not getting 3+ points.  And the Cowboys also fall into a 97-52 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Washington Commanders Under the total.  Both of these teams come into this game with sub-.400 records.  The Jets are 5-9, while the Commanders are 4-10.  Late in the season, when two awful teams match-up, the games tend to be low-scoring, and have gone under the total 57.7% since 1980.  Additionally, the Jets were shutout, 30-0, at Miami last weekend.  And NFL teams off shutout losses have gone 42-27 under their last 69.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over San Jose.  Coastal Carolina lost by 42 points in their final game of the season, as a 4-point underdog vs. James Madison.  We'll take the big underdog tonight, as Bowl underdogs of +8 (or more) points, off a SU/ATS loss, have covered 67% the last 10 seasons.  Take Coastal Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Buffalo.  The Chargers were the 2nd team this NFL season to fall by 40+ points when they were crushed, 63-21, by the Raiders on Thursday Night Football.  Historically, teams do bounce back from such blowout losses when they play at home in their next game, but not when they take to the road.  At home, our teams have gone 34-25-2 ATS, while they they've faltered on the road, to the tune of 6-12-2 ATS.  The Chargers have been installed as a double-digit home dog, which also bodes well, as double-digit home dogs have gone 130-102-2 ATS.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles upset Buffalo, 24-11, to end their regular season.  Unfortunately, they're a paltry 7-18 ATS as an underdog away from home in non-conference games, if they were off a win, including 0-5 ATS off an upset win.  Take South Alabama minus the points.

At 4:30pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  This is the Steelers' final home game of the season.  And they come into the game off 3 SU/ATS losses.  We played against the Black and Gold last week, and got the $$$$ with the Colts.  But we'll switch gears today, and take the points with the home pup.  Indeed, home dogs off 3 SU/ATS losses have covered 64% since 1980 in their final home game of the season.  Take Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves minus the points over Northern Illinois.  Butch Jones' men ended their regular season with a thud, as they lost, 35-21, to Marshall.  We'll take the Red Wolves to bounce back, as they're 11-2 ATS away from home off a double-digit conference defeat.  Take Arkansas St.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights have been installed as a favorite in this Gasparilla Bowl.  But Central Florida is a woeful 0-8 ATS its last 8 when priced from -3.5 to -7 points!  That doesn't bode well for UCF this evening.  Nor does the fact that Georgia Tech is 12-3 ATS its last 15 as an underdog (or PK), including 7-1 ATS off a straight up loss.  Take Georgia Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New Orleans/Los Angeles game.  This game is a technical play, as it falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 65% over the last 44 seasons, as well as a 59% system.  Additionally, the Saints have held their last two opponents to 6 points each.  And NFL teams that have given up less than 13 points in their two previous games have gone 148-121-7 OVER.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks Under the total.  The Eagles' defense has not played well the last three weeks, as it's given up 34, 42 and 33 points.  Off those three dismal performance, we'll take the Eagles and Seahawks to go under the total, as NFL teams that gave up more than 30 points in each of their 3 previous games have gone Under the total 59.5% since 1980.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Baltimore.  The Jaguars come into this Sunday Night game off back to back losses to Cincinnati and Cleveland. They'll now play their 3rd straight game vs. an AFC North division foe, as Baltimore will come into Jacksonville. Since 1980, winning teams (like the Jaguars) have cashed 61 percent at home off back to back losses, if they weren't favored by more than 1 point. Take the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Dallas.  Both Dallas and Buffalo scored their biggest wins of the season last Sunday. The Bills moved to 7-6 with a 20-17 win at Kansas City, while Dallas won at home, 33-13, vs. rival Philadelphia. That was Dallas' 5th straight win, overall. And four of those five wins came at home, including their last three. Now, the Cowboys have to take to the road, and play a Bills team which needs to keep winning to get into the Playoffs. I'll fade Dallas, as road teams off a home win, and 3 home games, overall, have gone 98-133-3 ATS. And the Cowboys are an ugly 1-10 ATS on the road vs winning teams that were in the Playoffs the previous season. Take Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Rams Under the total.  The Commanders had last week off to rest, and regroup after 4 straight losses where they gave up more than 28 points.  They lost 29-26 at Seattle.  Then the New York Giants upset them, 31-19.  On Thanksgiving, Dallas blew them out, 45-10, while Miami put up 45 in a 30-point win two weeks ago.   All four of those games went Over the total.  I like the Under in this game, as teams off 3 straight Overs where they gave up more than 30 points in each of those three games, have then gone under the total 60% since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Rams had a high-scoring game at Baltimore last Sunday.  But Los Angeles is 14-3-1 Under following a game that went Over the total, including 11-0 Under if the O/U line was greater than 42 points.  Take the Under.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Commanders had last week off to rest and prepare for this game, while the Rams lost an overtime affair at Baltimore (but covered the spread in defeat).  The Rams are a poor 8-21 ATS off 3 ATS wins, including 0-8 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -11 points.  And they're 1-12 ATS vs. rested foes when priced from -3 to -13 points.  Admittedly, the Commanders were playing poorly going into their Bye Week, as they had dropped 4 straight games, including their last three ATS.  The good news is that rested underdogs of more than 5 points have cashed 75% since 1990, if they had lost their three previous games SU/ATS.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Kansas City.  Defending Super Bowl champs have not done well as road favorites vs. foes off a straight-up win, and especially not in non-division games, as they've gone 22-41 ATS since 1981, including 0-11 ATS when laying more than 7 points. Take New England + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over the New York Giants.  The Giants pulled off a big upset this past Monday at home vs. Green Bay, as they won 24-22 as a 6-point home underdog. But road teams have had letdowns off upset home wins, if they were an underdog of more than 5 points in that upset win. Since 1980, those teams have gone 88-126-6 ATS. Take the Saints.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Carolina/Atlanta game.  The first meeting between these NFC South division rivals was low-scoring, with just 34 point scored (Atlanta won, 24-10).  Since 1980, subsequent meetings between division rivals have gone Over the total 55% if the prior meeting totaled less than 36 points.  Take the Falcons and Panthers Over the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New England/Kansas City game.  After scoring just 13 points over its three previous games, the New England offense broke out (for it, anyway) in a big way last Thursday.  It scored 21 first-half points, and coasted to a 21-18 victory in a game which went "over' by halftime.  We played on the Over in that Patriots/Steelers game, and will come right back with the Over in this Patriots/Chiefs game, as the number is still too low, by my math.  The Chiefs are also 24-10 Over their last 34 as road favorites of more than 6 points.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New York Giants/New Orleans Saints game.  The Giants had their 2nd best offensive performance of the season, in terms of yards gained, this past Monday.  New York rolled up 367 yards of offense, and tallied 24 points in an upset win of Green Bay.  That game easily went over the posted total of 37.5, and that was the 3rd time in its last four games that New York went Over the total (after playing 7 unders in a row prior to that).  New Orleans has had a similar arc.  After starting the season with 6 straight unders, it has now played Overs in four of its last seven.  We'll ride the current momentum, and look for another high-scoring game here.  Take the Giants and Saints Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Atlanta.  The Panthers have been installed as a home underdog in this NFC South division contest.  We'll grab the points, as home dogs off 3+ losses have done well in the final 4 games of the regular season, with a 95-60-2 ATS record vs. sub-.666 opponents.  That bodes well for Carolina.  As does the fact that the Falcons have covered just 10 of 29 as road favorites.  Take the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over California.  The Red Raiders were annihilated in Austin, Texas, 57-7, at the end of their regular season.  But off that 50-point blowout loss, I expect Tech to bounce back in this bowl game and crush California.  Texas Tech is a super 11-0 ATS off a straight-up loss as a road underdog, if it wasn't favored by double digits.  Lay the points with the Red Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Boise St.  The Bruins were upset at home, 33-7, by California to end their regular season.  And the Bruins were favored by 9.5 points in that game.  Off that defeat, where they failed to cover the spread by 35.5 points, we'll take UCLA to rebound in this de facto home game (at SoFi Stadium), on Saturday.  UCLA is a stellar 29-12-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread by more than 10 points in its previous game (including a perfect 4-0 ATS in the post-season).  And it's 31-17 ATS when playing in Los Angeles vs. non-conference foes, and not favored by 14+ points.  Meanwhile, Boise St. is a brutal 2-9-2 ATS away from home against foes not off a SU/ATS win, including 0-4-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points with Chip Kelly's Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:45 pm, our selection is on the Fresno St Bulldogs + the points over New Mexico St.  The Bulldogs fell flat in the season's final weeks, as they lost their last three games (both SU and ATS).  We'll take Fresno to bounce back, as it's 9-0 ATS when it was off 3+ losses, and not getting more than 7 points from its opponent.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Colts were blown out, 34-14, by Cincinnati last week, as a 3-point road underdog.  So, Indianapolis failed to cover the spread by 17 points.  But that bodes well for them here, at home, vs. Pittsburgh, as the Colts are 35-10 ATS off a straight-up loss, if they failed to cover the spread in that previous game by 8 or more points.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks minus the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Ragin' Cajuns ended their regular season by thumping rival, Louisiana Monroe, 52-21.  Unfortunately, the Cajuns are a horrid 0-10 ATS off a win by more than 17 points.  Lay the points with Jacksonville St.