At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis.  The Mustangs are 3-0, and have been scoring a lot of points this season.  They tallied 50 last week vs. SF Austin, and 65 the previous week at North Texas.  For the season, they're averaging 48.67 ppg.  As faithful followers know, I love playing on NCAA teams that can score.  And NCAA home underdogs off back to back games where they scored 48+ points, have cashed 69.2% since 1980, including 76.1% when playing with revenge.  With SMU, indeed, playing with revenge from a 54-48 loss to Memphis last year, our 76.1% tightener is satisfied.  Take SMU.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over the TCU Horned Frogs.  Texas lost last season, 37-21, to TCU, so it will be out for revenge this afternoon, in Austin.  The Longhorns' offense has been quite impressive this season, as it's averaging 61 ppg, on 582.5 ypg of total offense.  One of the things I like to do is play on revenge-minded teams that can score.  Since 1980, NCAA teams that average 55 ppg have cashed 78.7% when favored, and playing with revenge.  Even better:  TCU is a horrible 16-42-1 ATS vs. .600 (or better) revenge-minded opponents.  Lay the points with the Longhorns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Both of these teams enter today's game with identical 2-0 records.  But the Cougars have played the much more difficult schedule.  BYU opened its season with a 55-3 blowout of Navy.  And then it followed that up with a 48-7 trouncing of Troy State last week.  We played on BYU in last Saturday's victory, and we'll come right back with it tonight, as it's outscored its opponents by 46.5 points per game.  And that bodes well for it here, as teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 44+ points per game have covered 63% since 1980 when they were at home or on a neutral field.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 0-11 ATS when priced between +23 and +31.5 against non-conference foes.  Take Brigham Young.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the New York Jets/Denver Broncos game.  Through the season's first three weeks, the games have gone 'over' in 29 of the 48 games, with overall scoring up this year over last.  Neither of these teams has shown a propensity to stop their opponent's offense.  The Broncos have allowed 70 points over their first three games (and would have allowed much more, but for Titans' kicker Stephen Gostkowski missing several FGs and XPs in Week 1). Meanwhile, the Jets have given up 27, 31 and 36 in their first three games.  This over/under is the 2nd-lowest number of the 64 games scheduled thus far.  And, by my math, it's too low.  Indeed, the 'over' falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 72% since 1996.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Denver.  In this match-up of winless teams, we'll take the homestanding New York Jets minus the points.  It's true that the Jets are 0-3 ATS, while Denver is 2-1 ATS.  But winless SU/ATS teams have cashed 65% over the last 40 years, at Game 3 forward, if they were matched up against a losing team with a .500 (or better) ATS record.  And on Thursday Night Football, teams that have yet to win a game have cashed 70% at home (and 81% if they weren't favored by more than 5 points).  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona.  The Lions are 0-2 (so, what else is new?) to start the year -- the 7th time in 15 seasons they've started 0-2.  But they've been able to move the ball, as they've scored 21+ points in both games (vs. Chicago and Green Bay).  And 0-2 SU/ATS teams have cashed 60% in Week 3 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Detroit is 37-11 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 12 points, while Arizona is 8-18 ATS at home vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .140.  Finally, since 1980, road teams off back to back SU/ATS division losses have cashed 60% vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Last week, the Patriots went into a difficult Seattle venue, and lost to the Seahawks, 35-30, as a road underdog.  Meanwhile, the Raiders christened their new Allegiant Stadium with a 34-24 comeback win over New Orleans.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they will have to face an ornery Patriots team which will not want to fall to 1-2.  And New England is an awesome 10-0 SU and ATS off a straight-up loss when playing an .833 (or better) opponent off a win.  Finally, NFL road underdogs off back to back wins, in which they tallied more than 30 points, have cashed just 31.4% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Patriots.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Rams.  This line opened at -3, and has come way down -- to the point where I want to now step in and take the home team.  I had no interest in laying 3 points, but the value now squarely rests on the Bills.  Indeed, Buffalo falls into a great system of mine which is 74-33 ATS since 1981 which plays on certain winning teams not laying more than 1 points.  Yes, Buffalo failed to cover the spread last week in its win over the Dolphins.  But it still won, and is 2-0 on the season.  And the Bills also are 50-22 ATS at home off a point spread loss, if they're playing a foe off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-0, following their upset win last week vs. Philly.  Unfortunately, winning teams are a soft 256-332 ATS on the road off upset wins, provided they weren't laying more than six points.  Take the Bills at home.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Troy.  Both of these teams come into tonight's affair off blowout wins on the road.  The Trojans trounced Middle Tennessee St. in Murfreesboro, 47-14, while the Cougars annihilated Navy, 55-3, in Annapolis.  One difference, though, between the teams.  BYU has had the last 19 days off, while Troy played last Saturday.  We'll lay the points with the Cougars, as rested NCAA home favorites, of less than 40 points, are 128-76 ATS in non-conference home games, if they own a win percentage greater than .750.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Miami-Fla.  Miami defeated Louisville, 47-34, last Saturday.  But it gave up over 500 yards to Louisville, which outgained Miami, 506 to 485.  The Hurricanes, though, benefited from three Louisvlle turnovers, and that was the Cardinals' undoing.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles had last week off to lick their wounds following a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 12.  There's no doubt that Florida State will be enormously motivated to bounce back today, especially given that it's playing with revenge from a 17-point defeat to these Hurricanes last season.  We'll grab the double-digit with Florida State, as rested, revenge-minded teams, off a season-opening loss, have cashed 66% since 1980 vs. unrested foes.  Even better:  the underdog in this rivalry has gone 26-12-1 ATS over the last 40 years.  Take Florida State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New Orleans.  Last seasons, the Saints won 13 games.  But NFL teams that won 13+ games the previous season have covered just 43 of 108 road openers when installed as a favorite.  Last Sunday, the Raiders went into Charlotte, and defeated the Carolina Panthers, 34-30.  Off that win, we'll play on Las Vegas in its home opener tonight.  Since 1980, winning teams, off a SU/ATS win, have cashed 65.3% at home on Monday Nights.  Even better:  the Saints are 3-10 their last 13 road openers, and they're an awful 0-7 ATS their last seven road openers when favored by 3 or more points.  Take Las Vegas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last year, the Ravens demolished Houston 41-7, as a 3.5-point favorite, which was Houston's worst loss in its franchise history when it had a winning record at the time of the game.  So, Houston's going to be out for revenge, here at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  We'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into a 62.7% ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that had a winning record the previous season.  Additionally, since 1980, home dogs of +6 or more points have cashed 67% if they were off a 14-point (or worse) defeat in Week 1, and their opponent was off a 14-point (or greater) victory.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Kansas City.  We played on the Chiefs in their home opener last week, and they rewarded us with a 34-20 victory over Houston.  And that extended the record of defending Super Bowl champs to 14-4-2 ATS in season openers since 2001.  Unfortunately, defending champs are a horrid 3-13 ATS in Week 2 as a road favorite after winning their season opener, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And .501 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 64.1% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  This is a perfect letdown spot for the Chiefs, and especially because Kansas City also has a Monday Night game next week vs. the Baltimore Ravens, their closest competitor for AFC Conference supremacy.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington.  Both of these teams pulled off upsets in Week 1.  The Cards took down a very good 49ers team, 24-20, while Washington defeated Philly, 27-17 (after initially falling behind, 17-0).  It's exceptionally hard to pull off back to back upsets to start the NFL season.  Indeed, underdogs of more than 5 points in Week 2, that won outright as an underdog of more than 5 points in Week 1, have gone 1-28 straight-up, and 10-18-1 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Washington on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that, since 1980, NFL teams that won 25% (or less) of their games the previous season have gone 0-17 SU and 4-13 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points off an upset win in Week 1.  We'll lay the points with Arizona, as I look for the Cardinals to rout Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers upset the Vikings in Week 1, 43-34, while Detroit fell to Chicago, 27-23.  And that loss by Detroit was after it led by 17 points in the 4th quarter.  Green Bay is favored by almost a touchdown, but it's not defeated Detroit by 7 or more points in any of the last six meetings (and by more than 7 points in any of the last 10 games).  The Lions are 4-2 straight-up in the last six games, and won by an average of 12 points per game.  We'll grab the points with Detroit, as NFC North division teams are a fantastic 63-33-4 ATS off a loss when matched up against a division foe off a win, including 25-9 ATS on the road.  Even better:  the Packers are 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a SU/ATS road win.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last season, the Niners lost just three games.  So, it was a bit of a surprise last week when they were upset at home by the Arizona Cardinals.  The good news for San Francisco is that favorites in Week 2, off an upset loss in Week 1, have cashed 63% over the last 40 years, if they had a .750 (or better) W/L record the previous season.  Additionally, the Niners are 8-0 ATS as a road favorite of -5 (or more) points off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Niners.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Dallas.  Both the Falcons and Cowboys suffered Week 1 losses last Sunday.  Atlanta was upset, 38-25, at home by Seattle, while Dallas fell by three on the road to the L.A. Rams.  We'll grab the points with the Falcons, as road teams have cashed 65.9% over the past 40 years if they were upset in their season opener, and lost by 10+ points.  Additionally, the Falcons fall into 48-9 and 57-17 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road teams off blowout losses.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Titans have dominated their AFC South division rival in Nashville, as the Titans have won six straight (4-1-1 ATS), with the last two by margins of 22 and 21 points.  Since 1999, the Titans are 16-5 SU and 13-7-1 ATS at home vs. Jacksonville.  Last Sunday, the Jaguars stunned Indianapolis, 27-20, as a touchdown underdog.  We'll look for a letdown today, as NFL road underdogs off an upset win by 7+ points over a division rival, are a soft 83-128-4 ATS.  Lay the points with the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  Each of these teams were involved in games with double-digit margins of victory last Sunday.  Miami lost by 10 to New England, while Buffalo won by 10 over the NY Jets.  The Bills, though, have been a horrible team off a double-digit win over a division rival, as they've covered just 12 of 50 since 1981.  Meanwhile, Miami falls into 133-70 and 295-223 ATS systems of mine that play on certain divisional home underdogs vs. unrested winning opponents.  Take the Dolphins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over Georgia Tech.  Not much was expected of the Yellow Jackets this season, as they were picked to finish last in the ACC preseason poll.  But Georgia Tech stunned Florida State in Tallahassee last week, as a 13-point underdog.  Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, teams off an upset conference road win to start the season generally have letdowns their next game, as they've covered just 35% over the past 41 years.  The Knights are 19-6-1 ATS their last 26 when priced from -5.5 to -21.5 points.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State.  Both Marshall and App State opened their 2020 campaigns with solid wins.  Marshall blew out Eastern Kentucky, 59-0, while the Mountaineers took care of Charlotte, 35-20.  We'll fade Appalachian State, as Sun Belt Conference favorites, with a .500 or better record, are an awful 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 1-17 ATS their last 18) as favorites vs. non-conference foes off a straight-up win.  Take Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Navy + the points over Tulane.  The Midshipmen were blown out at home in their first game of the season, 55-3, by BYU, as a 1.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, Tulane went into South Alabama, and defeated the Jaguars by three points, 27-24.  The fact that Navy lost to BYU should not have come as a surprise, as the Midshipmen are 8-16 their last 24 home openers.  But Navy's gone 12-5-1 ATS its last 18 road openers, and it's 119-65 ATS its last 184 away from Annapolis, including 33-8 ATS off a home defeat.  Take Navy to rebound this afternoon.  Grab the points.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Browns were roasted, 38-6, in Week 1 by the Baltimore Ravens.  But I love Cleveland to rebound on this Thursday night vs. its AFC North division rival, Cincinnati.  The last thing any NFL teams wants to do to start a season is go 0-2, and especially if each of its first two games are division contests.  Indeed, over the last 30 years, favorites have cashed 70.3% in division games in Week 2, if they lost to another division foe in Week 1, including 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS the last eight.  That bodes well for Cleveland tonight.  As does the fact that NFL teams that failed to cover the spread by 23+ points in Week 1, have rebounded to go 21-7 ATS in Week 2 vs. an opponent also off a loss, if our team was not getting 10+ points.  Take Cleveland minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Tennessee.  It's tough to make money going against the Broncos at home when they're an underdog, or a short favorite.  Indeed, since 1981, Denver's gone 50-22 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points.  Even better:  Denver's 28-11 ATS its last 37 home openers when not favored by double-digits, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog!  The Broncos have also dominated the Titans, with a record of 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Drew Lock & Co. to upset the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Over the years, Pittsburgh has significantly underperformed as road favorites of -2 or more points vs. non-division foes.  Since 1980, they've covered just 24 of 76 games. Additionally, dating back to 1983, home underdogs of +5 or more points have cashed 59% in September if it was Week 1, or they were not off a straight-up loss.  Yesterday, we saw the two big home underdogs (Jacksonville, Washington) pull off major upsets.  And I look for another upset by the Giants on Monday Night Football this evening.  Take the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Seattle Seahawks.  These two teams met last season here in Atlanta, and the Seahawks came away with a 27-20 victory.  But Atlanta was ravaged with injuries for that game, and was actually installed as a 7.5-point home underdog.  The two teams are much more even in talent for this game, and I have 83-49, 66-35 and 86-53 ATS systems on the Falcons.  Moreover, the Seahawks have always done great in their home opener, and extremely poorly in their road opener.  Dating back to 1999, the Seahawks have covered just 4 of 21 road openers.  Meanwhile, they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 home openers.  Similarly, the Falcons are a fantastic 17-4 ATS their last 21 home openers, but 4-12 ATS their last 16 road openers.  I expect those two trends to stay true to form this afternoon.  Additionally, over the last 16 seasons, in Week 1, non-division home teams have cashed 63% when playing with revenge from a home loss to a non-division foe the previous season.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Green Bay.  Last year, both of these teams made the playoffs, but the Packers defeated Minnesota in both regular season meetings.  I love Minnesota to avenge those defeats, as they fall into a division double-revenge system of mine which is 23-6 ATS since 1987, including a perfect 15-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -7 points!  Even better:  the Packers are 1-7 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS when getting 2+ points from a division rival it defeated twice the previous season.  Finally, the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five home openers, while the Packers are a poor 4-7 ATS their last 11 road openers.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  Last season, the Chanticleers went into Lawrence, and upset the Jayhawks, 12-7, as a 7-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with Kansas in this rematch, as Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 73% over the last 20 years at home when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes.  Even better:  Kansas is an awesome 33-6 SU and 25-14 ATS when favored by 3 or more points, including 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Louisville.  These two Bluegrass State rivals met in Nashville last season, and the Cardinals came out on top, 38-21, as a 10.5-point favorite.  That was the 11th straight time Louisville has defeated Western Kentucky, dating back to 1982.  So, there's nothing the Hilltoppers' coach, Tyson Helton, will want more than to end that losing streak tonight.  Both of these teams had rebirths last season under 1st-year coaches.  Helton led the Hilltoppers to a 9-4 record, following a 3-9 campaign in 2018.  And Scott Satterfield guided Louisville to an 8-5 record after the Cards went 2-10 in 2018.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is to play on certain revenge-minded teams, and the Hilltoppers fall into several of my better revenge angles, with records of 129-72, 22-6, 72-31, 58-22 and 80-37 ATS.  The Cardinals have been installed as a double-digit favorite, but they're a wallet-busting 5-15 ATS their last 20 as a home favorite of more than 10 points.  And they're 3-14 ATS their last 17 as a home favorite, priced from -6 to -13.5, vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane minus the points over South Alabama.  Last week, the Jaguars went into Hattiesburg, and upset Southern Miss, 32-21, as a 12-point underdog.  Prior to that win, the Jaguars had not won away from home in 15 games.  South Alabama will be back home for this game, but I don't believe a 2nd straight upset is in the offing.  Indeed, the Jaguars fall into two negative "letdown" systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins that have records of 106-181 and 67-113 ATS since 1980.  The Jaguars are an awful 35.7% ATS at home off a straight-up win, while Tulane has cashed 75% as a favorite vs. foes off upset wins.  And the Green Wave's coach, Willie Fritz, has gone 28-13 ATS as a favorite in his career, whether here at Tulane (since 2016), or at Georgia Southern before that (2014-15).  Take the Green Wave to blow out South Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston.  Last January, these two teams met in the quarterfinals, and we had a play on Kansas City minus 8.5 points, and also had our NFL Total of the Year on the over 51.  The Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead, but then collapsed, and lost 51-31.  One of the things I highlighted last season in my breakdown of that Playoff game was that Houston was the only team -- of the 12 that qualified for the post-season -- which had a negative scoring differential.  And they also had the 2nd-worst defense of any Playoff team, as they gave up 24.06 ppg in the regular season.  Yes, it's a new season, so Houston's defensive numbers don't carry over to this year.  Still, it's worth noting that the Chiefs have dominated teams that allow 23.66 points or more, as they're 32-8 SU and 26-13-1 ATS their last 40.  Some may look for a Super Bowl hangover in Week 1, but that theory has never actually been validated by the data.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are on a 16-3 SU and 13-4-2 ATS run in Week 1 since 2001.  Kansas City also falls into 11-0, 47-14, 82-49 and 65-28 ATS systems of mine.  And it ended last season on an 8-0-1 ATS run.  I won't step in front of this freight train at home, even with most of the seats empty.  Lay the points with the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay.  Last week, we played on the Packers and were rewarded with a 28-23 victory over Seattle.  And that was Green Bay's 6th straight win, overall.  Unfortunately, its win streak should come to a screeching halt this weekend, as it falls into a negative system, which is 5-35 SU and 9-31 ATS.  What we want to do is play AGAINST any underdog of +3 (or more) points off 5+ wins, if it's now playing a foe with a winning record.  And even though there's nothing wrong with 31-9 ATS, we can improve our situation to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS by solely going against teams that don't average 24.85 points per game on offense.  It's absolutely true that Green Bay will certainly want to avenge its blowout loss here earlier in the season.  But revenge-minded NFL teams have performed very poorly in Conference Championship road games, as they've gone 16-28 ATS.  Also, the 49ers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS as home favorites priced from -3 to -7.5 points in the Playoffs.  And NFL favorites, priced from -3.5 to -9.5 points have gone 30-15 ATS in Conference Championship games.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the West minus the points.  The West has dominated the East-West Shrine game of late, with 4 straight wins.  And, in those four games, the East squad has averaged 9.7 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for the East team on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that the East's three QBs are Tommy Stevens (Miss State), Kevin Davidson (Princeton) and James Morgan (Florida International).  In contrast, the West has the best QB (Mason Fine, North Texas) on its roster, along with Tyler Huntley (Utah) and Kelly Bryant (Missouri).  Lay the points with the West in the Shrine game on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Philadelphia/Seattle game.  These two teams met earlier this season -- here in Philly -- and the Seahawks won a very low-scoring game, 17-9.  And that's been par for the course for Philadelphia here, as the Eagles have now gone 'under' the total in their last six (and in 24 of their last 34) home games.  And they've also gone 'under' the total 7-1-1 in their last nine home NFL Playoff games.  Additionally, the 'under' is 33-18 in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 3.  And this game (to go 'under') also falls into a 23-3 Totals system of mine, which is statistically-based.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Buffalo/Houston game.  The Buffalo Bills have now played six straight games that totaled 41 or less points.  And outside of their two games vs. Miami, none of their other 14 games equaled the posted total for this game.  And it's not just on the defensive side of the ball where points are hard-earned; the Bills, themselves, have scored just 6, 17, and 17 in their three previous games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for yet another low-scoring Buffalo game on this Saturday.  But knee-jerk reactions are often the wrong move.  Indeed, teams (like Buffalo) that scored 42 or less points over their three previous games have gone 'over' the total 75 percent of the time over the last 26 seasons.  And these two teams also fall into 57-33 and 53-32 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Pittsburgh.  This Quick Lane Bowl game will be played in the backyard of Eastern Michigan, as Detroit's Ford Field is just 36 miles away from Ypsilanti.  So, the crowd will definitely lean in favor of the underdog.  Pitt comes into this game off back to back losses -- and failed to cover the spread in those defeats by 16 and 24.5 points -- yet it's laying almost two touchdowns to the Eagles.  I have all the respect in the world for the job Pat Narduzzi is doing at Pittsburgh, as his team ranks #11 in defense this season (302.5 ypg).  But one of the things I will RARELY do in a bowl game is lay a lot of points -- and especially if the favored team isn't one of the best teams in the country (like an Alabama, LSU, Ohio State or Clemson-type of team).  And Pitt is certainly not of that caliber.  Another thing I will rarely do is lay ANY amount of points with a team which isn't playing well.  It's one thing to TAKE points with a team off a loss, or back-to-back losses to end the season.  But quite another to lay points with such clubs.  To wit:  since 2004, Bowl favorites, priced from -7.5 to -17.5 points, off back to back losses, are 0-11 ATS!  And, speaking of 11-0 ATS, that's the Eagles' point spread record away from home vs. non-conference teams when Eastern Michigan wasn't getting more than 15 points.  Finally, Pitt is a wallet-busting 8-22 ATS when laying 8+ points away from home, including 0-10 ATS if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game by double-digits.  Take Eastern Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over BYU.  The Cougars mustered just 3 points in their final regular season game -- a 13-3 defeat at San Diego St.  And that was their fourth straight point spread defeat to end the season.  Hawaii, in contrast, covered three of its last four games (and won four of its last five).  We'll fade BYU tonight, as it's a horrid 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite.  Even worse:  teams that scored less than 7 points in their previous game have covered just 13.3% in the Bowls over the last 40 years provided they weren't getting 5+ points, and also not playing with revenge.  And BYU isn't playing with revenge here, as it defeated Hawaii in Provo last year, 49-23, as an 11-point favorite.  This game, however, is in Honolulu.  And home underdogs have covered 64.1% in the post-season since 1980.  Finally, Hawaii's a super 22-3 ATS at home, if it owned a winning record, and didn't fail to cover the spread in the previous meeting by more than 15 points.  Take the Rainbow Warriors + the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have won 10 straight games (their last loss was to these Browns), and are the odds-on favorite to be the #1 seed in the AFC Conference.  But the point spreads of really good teams tend to be inflated late in the season.  And this game is a perfect example, as Cleveland is getting double-digits at home (which is roughly the same point spread dealt in Baltimore's road game at then-winless Cincinnati in mid-October).  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as home underdogs of +9 (or more) points have gone 14-0 ATS in the season's final four weeks vs. .833 (or better) opponents.  Additionally, the Ravens have covered just 3 of 19 road games off a win by 18+ points, and have also covered just 16 of 41 vs. foes playing their final home game of the season.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Tennessee.  We had our biggest NFL play of the year-to-date two weeks ago when the Texans met the Patriots, and pulled off a 28-22 upset.  We then, not surprisingly, went against the Texans last week vs. Denver, as a letdown was in order, and they certainly had one, as they lost outright to the Broncos, as an 8-point favorite.  But I love Houston to bounce back this afternoon vs. the Titans.  Indeed, since 1980, divisional road underdogs, off an upset loss by more than 10 points the previous week, are 86-49-4 ATS.  It's absolutely true that Tennessee is red-hot, and on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  But unrested teams off 4 SU/ATS wins are a soft 107-138 ATS vs. winning opponents.  Finally, the Texans are 15-6 ATS their last 21 vs. Tennessee, including a perfect 8-0 ATS if the Texans failed to cover their previous game by more than 3 points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Kansas City.  Last week, we had our strongest NFL play of the season-to-date on the Houston Texans + over New England.  And we easily got the $$$ in an outright right by DeShaun Watson & Co.  But we'll switch gears this Sunday, and take the Patriots off that defeat.  Indeed, there's no better coach in the business than Bill Belichick when it comes to readying his troops to rebound off a loss.  To wit:  the Patriots are 49-9 straight-up, and 42-16 ATS (72.4%) when coming off a loss (compared to 175-56 SU and 131-94 ATS (58.2%)) when coming off a win.  It's true that the Chiefs will be playing this game with revenge from last year's playoff defeat.  But New England is 5-1-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 against a foe which has revenge from a playoff loss.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 3-7 SU/ATS when playing with Playoff revenge.  Lay the points with New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs + the points over LSU.  The Bulldogs have lost just once this season.  And that was a 20-17 setback vs. South Carolina, in a game where the Bulldogs committed four turnovers (against 0 for the Gamecocks).  The calling card for this Georgia team is its defense, as the only time it has given up 20 points in a game was that loss to South Carolina.  For the season, Georgia's given up just 10.4 ppg, while LSU's defense rates 11.66 ppg worse, at 22.1.  We'll take the points with the Bulldogs, as underdogs with a defense which gives up, at least, 7.9 less points than its opponent, have gone 35-14-1 ATS in the post-season.  Additionally, the Bulldogs are an awesome 24-7 ATS their last 31 away from home.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Minnesota.  This is a great match-up tonight between two teams that still have an opportunity to get the #1 seed in the NFC.  These teams have met five times this decade, and the Seahawks have won each of those games, and covered all but one.  I look for them to extend their win streak in this series to 6 straight, as the Seahawks are 67-25 SU and 53-36-3 ATS at home their last 92, including 33-17-2 ATS when not favored by 7+ points.  Even better:  Monday Night home teams off back to back road wins have gone 26-9 ATS, while the Vikings have gone 0-8 ATS their last eight Monday Night road games. Take the Seahawks...Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game.  This is a critical game for the AFC Playoff picture.  And the victor will be in a very good position to eventually snag the 6th, and final wild card spot.  Last week, the Cleveland Browns had their best offensive day of the season, when they scored 41 points vs. Miami.  And over his last three games, QB Baker Mayfield has been excellent, with seven touchdowns, and just one interception.  Over those three games, the Browns have averaged 27 ppg on offense.  The Steelers' offense has sputtered lately, so they've made a change at the quarterback position, and will start Devlin "Duck" Hodges, the former Samford star (and all-time FCS passing leader, with 14,584 career yards).  Hodges made one start earlier this season, and it was a positive one, as the Steelers went into Los Angeles, and upset the Chargers, 24-17.  I've liked what I've seen of Hodges when he's played this season (both in that start vs. the Charges, and as a relief QB).  And he's a definite upgrade over the erstwhile starter, Mason Rudolph.  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies are 2-9 on the season, while Liberty is 6-5.  So, this will be the final game of the season for the Aggies.  Interestingly, this will be the 2nd time this season that these two teams have played each other, as they met in Las Cruces back in October.  The Flames won that game, 20-13, as a 4-point favorite.  And I look for them to sweep the season series with a blowout win, on Saturday.  It will be Liberty's final home game of the season, of course.  And New Mexico State is an awful 5-15 ATS on the road against a foe playing its final home game.  Even worse:  it's 4-44 straight-up and 16-35 ATS on the road when not favored by 4+ points.  Finally, Liberty falls into my favorite College Football system, which is 91-41 ATS, and plays on certain teams off a loss when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Take the Flames.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  Both of these teams are mired in long losing streaks.  The Tigers are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five games, while Arkansas has lost its last eight games (2-6 ATS).  But in November, the Tigers have been much more competitive than Arkansas, as Missouri's failed to cover the spread by just 8.3 ppg, while Arkansas has failed to cover the spread by an average of 15.16 ppg.  It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but since 1981, losing teams, off ATS losses in each of their last four games, have actually covered 67.7% as big, double-digit favorites.  And Missouri also falls into an 83-31 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses.  Finally, the Tigers are 9-0 ATS since 1986 off 5 straight losses.  Take Missouri.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills are 8-3 on the season, yet have been installed as a big underdog at Dallas this afternoon.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with Buffalo given that it's lost by more than six points just once this season.  But consider that .700 (or better) road underdogs of 5+ points, off back-to-back wins, have cashed just 22.5% in the regular season since 1986, at Game 12 forward.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills today.  Nor does the fact that they're 0-16-1 ATS off back-to-back point spread wins when matched up against a .666 (or worse) foe not off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Washington.  After a promising 2-0-1 start, which included wins over the Chargers and Eagles, Detroit has dropped six of seven games.  Of course, it also must be noted that Detroit's one win in this stretch was against the Giants, who have a losing record, at 2-8.  And, for the season, Detroit's gone 3-1-1 in its five games against teams that currently have a .500 (or worse) record (Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Bears, Giants).  In contrast, Detroit's 0-5 vs. teams that currently have a winning record (Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Cowboys, Vikings).  That bodes well for the Lions in this game on Sunday afternoon, against the 1-9 Redskins.  As does the fact that losing NFL teams, off back to back losses, have gone 40-15 ATS as road favorites of more than 3 points.  Finally, Washington's 15-31 ATS at home vs. teams that didn't own a winning record.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Boise State.  Both teams come into this game with issues at the quarterback position.  Utah State's Jordan Love suffered an undisclosed injury last Saturday vs. Wyoming, and is questionable for this week.  Likewise, Boise State used its 3rd string quarterback, Jaylon Henderson, vs. New Mexico last week.  Henderson did pass for 3 touchdowns and 292 yards in that game -- a 42-9 win, as a 24.5-point favorite -- to earn Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors.  But it must be said that Henderson's performance came against a Lobos team which is the worst Division I (FBS) team on Boise's schedule this season.  The Aggies, at 5-1 in Mountain West games this year, will be a much more difficult test. Even worse for Boise:  its top defensive player -- Curtis Weaver -- hurt his right leg last week, and also might be in street clothes for this game.  We'll grab the points with Utah State on Saturday night, in its final home game of the season, as the Aggies fall into a strong conference system.  What we want to do is play on Mountain West home teams with a winning record -- both within the conference and overall -- if they're not favored by 6+ points.  Such teams have covered 67 percent, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points in their final home game of the season.  And Mountain West conference teams, regardless of their record, have also gone 41-24 ATS as underdogs in their final home game of the season.  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  We played on Northern Illinois last Wednesday, at Toledo, and got the $$$ with it in a 31-28 victory, as a road underdog.  That moved the Huskies' record to 4-6 on the season.  So, if it wins its final two games, then it will become bowl-eligible.  We'll play on Northern Illinois tonight as a home favorite, as losing teams (at Game 9 forward) have cashed 65.1% since 1980 if they were off a win, and favored at home by 3 (or more) points over a conference foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  Northern Illinois has gone 15-2 ATS off an upset win over a conference foe, including a perfect 11-0 when favored by 3+ points.  And Eastern Michigan is a woeful 12-30 ATS on the road off a straight-up win.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the KC Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Kansas City's last three games have each gone 'over' the total, and those three games combined for 171 total points (55, 49 and 67).  But I look for a lower scoring game tonight, as NFL games have gone UNDER 167-117 (59%) since 1980, including 15-4 (79%) UNDER on Monday Night Football, when the O/U line was 47+ points -- provided one of the teams was off 3 OVERS, and its previous three games combined to exceed 160 total points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Chicago Bears game.  Both of these teams enter tonight's contest off a string of relatively-low scoring games.  The Bears' last three games have all gone 'under' the total, while the Rams have gone 'under' in four straight games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low scoring game here, especially since last season's game between these two teams only produced 21 points (Chicago 15 Los Angeles 6).  But, over the last 40 seasons, match-ups between two teams that have each gone 'under' the total in each of their previous three games actually go 'OVER' the total more often than not.  Even better:  the Rams have gone 'OVER' the total in 12 of their last 13 games when they had gone 'under' in each of their four previous games, and they've also gone 'over' the total 33 of 55 games if their opponent was off three 'unders.'  Likewise, since 1980, the Bears have gone 'over' the total 62% of the time if their opponent was off four 'unders.'  Finally, the 'OVER' falls into a totals system of mine which is 61-34 since 1980.  Take the 'OVER.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Minnesota.  Last week, we played on the Gophers + the points over Penn State, and were rewarded with a 31-26 upset victory over the then-undefeated Nittany Lions.  But off that upset win over Penn State, we'll fade Minnesota on Saturday.  For technical support, consider that teams off upset wins over undefeated opponents (that hadn't lost through at least their first 7 games) have had letdowns the following week, and especially on the road where they've covered just 38.0%.  But that's not the best part.  If our 'play-against' team (here, Minnesota) is now playing an opponent with a .666 (or better) record, then our road teams have covered just 13.3% since 1983.  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs come into this game on an 8-game win streak, and are one game ahead of Southern Miss in the West division race.  Marshall also is in prime contention to make the Conference USA Title game, as it's 4-1 in conference play, and is a half-game behind Florida Atlantic in the East division standings.  We'll take the home team tonight, and go against Louisiana Tech, as unrested underdogs of +3 (or more) points, on a 6-game (or better) win streak, have covered the spread in just 33.9% of their conference games since 1980.  Even worse for the Bulldogs:  they're an awful 4-25 straight-up, and 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of +5 (or more) points off a win.  Take Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Toledo.  The Huskies come into this game off a 48-10 upset loss at Central Michigan.  But off that poor performance, we'll look for Northern Illinois to bounce back tonight.  Indeed, road underdogs off a 37-point (or worse) upset loss, have cashed 75% in Conference games since 1990 vs. opponents off a straight-up win.  Also, Northern Illinois is a super 42-24 ATS their last 66 as road underdogs, including 3-1 ATS off an upset loss.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Buffalo.  The Browns are 2-6 on the season, and lost as a road favorite last week in Denver.  Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-2, and won and covered its last game -- at home -- vs. the Redskins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the 6-2 Bills as an underdog, especially given that the Browns have lost their last four games.  But consider that NFL underdogs have covered 0 of 9 games in the 2nd half of the season if they owned a win percentage at least .400 greater than their opponent.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that teams off 4+ losses, including an upset defeat in their previous game, have cashed 70% since 2001 when not getting more than 3 points.  Take Cleveland to blow out Buffalo.  Lay the points. NFL Favorite of the Month!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Louisville.  Last week, we played on the Cardinals as a home underdog vs. Virginia, and got the $$$ in a 28-21 upset victory.  But we will switch gears, and go against Louisville on the road this week.  They'll travel to south Florida to take on a 5-4 Miami squad playing their final home game of the season.  And the Hurricanes are returning home after upset road wins at Pittsburgh, and at Florida State.  And I love them to extend their win streak on Saturday, as they've cashed 91% over the last 40 seasons off an upset conference win the previous week.  Additionally, winning teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 58% over the last 40 years off back to back road wins, if matched up against a conference foe.  And, finally, Miami also falls into 191-95 and 125-51 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home favorites off wins vs. foes off an upset win.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Washington.  The Beavers have been installed as a double-digit home underdog notwithstanding the fact that they come into this game off back to back upset ROAD wins (at California and Arizona).  Meanwhile, the Huskies enter tonight's fray off back to back HOME losses to Oregon and Utah.  We'll take the points with Oregon State, as home underdogs of more than 7 points, off back to back wins, have covered 78% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take the Beavers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over South Florida.  Temple dropped its last two games -- both SU and ATS -- which lowered its record to 5-3 on the season.  But .600 (or better) teams have gone 71-49 ATS as a road favorite off back to back losses.  And the Owls are an awesome 73-44-1 ATS its last 118 on the road, while the Bulls are a horrid 12-24-1 ATS at home vs. conference rivals, including 0-7 ATS their last seven.  Take Temple.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  In their last game, the Bobcats went into Muncie, Indiana, and upset Ball State, 34-21, as a 2-point underdog.  Off that win, we'll play on Ohio, as it's gone 8-0 ATS at home off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Red Hawks come into Athens off back to back upset wins over Northern Illinois and Kent State.  Unfortunately, they're not likely to make it 3 upset wins in a row.  Indeed, since 1980, road underdogs off an upset road win have cashed just 36% vs. conference foes off a win, if our road dog also won as an underdog two games back.  The Bobcats are also a super 11-2 straight-up, and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Red Hawks.  Take Ohio to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys Under the total.  Each of these two teams come into this game off a string of relatively-high scoring games.  Dallas' last three games have produced 58, 46 and 47 points, while the New York Giants' last three games have generated 49, 48 and 57 points.   The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, especially since the first meeting (in Week 1) between these two teams resulted in a 52-point game.  But match-ups between division rivals -- with Over/Under lines greater than 47 points -- have gone UNDER the total 62% of the time since 1980 if previous three games for each of the two teams resulted in 43+ points being scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over New England.  The Patriots are one of two undefeated teams in the NFL.  And they're 6-2 ATS.  But they've benefited from a ridiculously easy schedule.  Only one of New England's previous eight opponents currently has a winning record.  That would be the Buffalo Bills.  And New England didn't cover the point spread in that game, and was actually out-gained in yardage, 375-224, but was able to win because the Bills committed three more turnovers than did New England.  Baltimore will thus be the 2nd winning opponent which the Patriots will face this season.  The Ravens are 5-2, and come into this game off a bye week following their upset win, at Seattle.  That bodes well for them, as rested teams have gone 11-4 ATS as an underdog vs. New England if the Patriots were unrested.  Also, .700 (or better) teams have gone 17-8 ATS vs. New England as a home underdog.  Those team trends are nice.  But I also have many league-wide NFL systems against New England.  For example, .666 (or better) NFL home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points have cashed 73% since 1980 off a road win, if they're playing an opponent off a home win.  And .666 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 60% of the time (at Week 7 forward) vs. non-division foes.  Admittedly, it's true that the Patriots have won and covered each of their last four games by wide margins (33-7, 35-14, 33-0, 27-13).  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) NFL teams, off 4 straight wins and covers, in which they scored 24+ points in each game, have covered just 30% of the time vs. .666 (or better) foes.   The Patriots win streak will end on Sunday night.  Take the Ravens + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over SMU.  In this battle for American Athletic Conference West division supremacy, we'll side with the homestanding Tigers.  Memphis comes into this game with a 3-1 record in the AAC, one game behind SMU, which is 4-0, and a half-game behind Navy, which is 4-1.  So, this game is a "must-win" for the Tigers if they want to get back to the AAC Championship game in December.  And the Tigers have been a juggernaut at home vs. conference foes, as they've won 10 of the last 11.  Even more impressive is the fact that they've covered 9 straight home conference games -- by an average of 10.04 points per game!  Meanwhile, SMU is a dreadful 2-8 ATS its last 10 road games vs. conference foes, including 0-5 ATS vs. foes with a .400 (or better) win percentage.  And it's also 2-12 ATS in conference road games off back to back conference wins, and 12-34 ATS as road underdogs of +10 or less points (or PK).  Finally, Memphis falls into 82-46, 364-266, 123-73, 184-104 and 66-28 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams with strong offenses (Memphis averages 39.5 ppg).  Lay the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Dolphins are 0-6 on the season, but they've covered the point spread in their last two games.  We stayed away from playing on or against Miami for its first five contests, but stepped in last Sunday and took the points with it against Buffalo (and cashed).  We'll take the Dolphins once again tonight, as winless NFL underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 44-16-2 ATS (at Game 6 forward) on the road vs. non-division opponents.  Also, Monday Night Football underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 22-6-1 ATS.  Take the Dolphins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Indianapolis.  The Broncos were blown out, 30-6, as a 3-point home underdog last week.  But I love them to rebound on Sunday at Indianpolis.  The Colts come into this game off two huge victories:  a 19-13 win at Kansas City, who knocked them out of last year's playoffs, and a 30-23 win over division rival, Houston.  Last week's win moved Indy to 4-2 on the season -- and into first place in the AFC South -- a half-game ahead of the Texans, who fell to 4-3.  But NFL home teams have covered just 32% (at Game 5 forward) over the last 40 years if they were off back to back wins over .666 (or better) opponents.  That doesn't bode well for Indianapolis.  Nor does the fact that favorites off a division win have covered just 42 of 118 games vs. foes off a home loss in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 18 points.  Take the Broncos + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Utah State.  Last year, the Aggies downed Air Force, 42-32, which snapped Air Force's 3-game SU/ATS win streak in this series.  But I love Air Force to avenge that defeat, as it's 9-3-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss.  And this is a huge game for Air Force, as it currently sits one game behind Utah State in the Mountain West's division standings.  And the Aggies fall into a negative 72-123 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams that sit atop their Conference standings.  Last week, Air Force had a nice tune-up for this game when it pasted Hawaii, 56-26.  That was the Falcons' 2nd straight double-digit win, which has triggered a great 69.7% ATS 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any unrested NCAA team off back to back double-digit wins, and back to back double-digit covers, if it was playing at home vs. a conference rival, and not favored by 6+ points.  That bodes well for the Falcons on Saturday.  As does the fact that it's 10-0 ATS the past five years off a 20-point (or greater) win.  Take Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Minnesota. These two teams are obviously heading in opposite directions.  Washington is 1-6 this season, and lost 9-0 at home to the 49ers last week (though it covered the 10-point spread), while the Vikes have won (and covered) each of their last three games.  And over its last two games, Minnesota has had its best offensive outputs (38, 42 points) of the season.  But before one walks to the window and plunks down some $$$ on Minnesota, consider that teams off a shutout defeat at home (like Washington) have gone 69.7% ATS since 2001.  And NFL teams off a win (like Minnesota), who have scored more than 60 points more than their opponent over their two previous games (Minnesota scored 80, Washington just 17), have gone 7-28 ATS if their opponent was off a loss.  Washington also falls into 153-69, 21-3 and 218-130 ATS systems of mine.  Grab the points with the Redskins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over SMU.  Last week, we played on SMU as a 9-point favorite, and got the $$$ in a 45-21 blowout win over Temple, which entered the game with a 5-1 record.  That was a huge win for the Mustangs, as it moved their record to 7-0, and dropped Temple to 5-2.  But off that big win, we'll look for a letdown by SMU on the road on Thursday.  Indeed, over the last 40 seasons, undefeated NCAA teams, with a record of 7-0 (or better), have cashed just 28% on the road following a win (and 14-point cover) over a once-beaten or undefeated team.  Even worse for SMU:  it's an awful 12-33 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 0-11 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -20 points!  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over New England.  Yesterday, we played on the Washington Redskins as a double-digit home underdog vs. San Francisco, and got the $$$$ in a 9-point loss.  Here, the Jets have also been installed as a large home underdog -- currently ranging from +9.5 to +10.5, depending on one's sports book, as of this writing.  We'll grab the points with the Flyboys, as home underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 83-47-2 ATS vs. foes off a home win, including 35-13-1 ATS if their opponent was also off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  the Jets enter this contest off an upset win over Dallas last week, 24-22, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  And Monday Night home dogs of +2 (or more) points have gone 20-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS since 2011!  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Tennessee Titans/Los Angeles Chargers game.  On the surface, this looks like it will be a very low-scoring game.  The Chargers' last five games have averaged 36.8 ppg, while the Titans' last five games have averaged 10 points less, at 26.8 ppg.  And each of those 10 games have gone 'under' the total.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another 'under' here.  But such knee-jerk reactions are often wrong.  Indeed, over the last 40 years, NFL teams have gone 'over' 65% of the time if one team played its last 5 (or more) games 'under' the total, and its opponent played its last 3 (or more) games 'under' the total, and the Over/Under line was 42 or less points.  And the Titans have gone 57-30 'over' the total after scoring less than 14 points in their previous game, if the Over/Under line in their current game was 42 or less points.  Take the Chargers and Titans 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Arizona State.  After being upset on the road by USC, 30-23, as a 3.5-point favorite, the Utes have righted their ship with back-to-back blowout wins over Washington State (38-13) and Oregon State (52-7).  We played on the Utes last week in their 45-point win over the Beavers.  And we'll come right back with them here, at home, vs. Arizona State, which upset Washington State last week.  Indeed, the Utes fall into a great 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any team which scored 87+ points, combined, in their two previous games, while giving up less than 24 points, combined, in those two games, and is now matched up against an opponent playing away from home off an upset win.  That angle's cashed 77.1% over the past 40 seasons.  The Utes currently have the nation's 2nd-ranked rush defense (2.4 yards per rush; 52.8 yards per game), and 8th-ranked scoring defense (13.1 ppg).  I look for them to shut down Arizona State.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over UNLV.  Last week, the Rebels pulled off a huge upset, when they went into Nashville, and defeated Vanderbilt, 34-10, as a 16-point underdog.  But before one gets too excited about that victory, it also must be noted that Vandy is now 1-5 straight-up, and 0-6 ATS on the season.  UNLV has to stay on the road for this game, and travel to Fresno for this Friday night contest.  Once again, UNLV is a double-digit underdog.  Unfortunately, conference underdogs priced from +3.5 to +18.5 points, off a non-conference win as an underdog of more than 14 points, are a horrid 0-14 SU/ATS since 1990!  Even worse for UNLV:  it generally doesn't put back-to-back good games together, as it's a wallet-busting 27-56 ATS off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Fresno's 26-10-1 ATS its last 37.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  Arkansas State returns home tonight after playing its last two games on the road, while Lafayette comes into Jonesboro off a home game last week.  That bodes well for the Red Wolves, as Sun Belt Conference home underdogs have cashed 65.3% off back to back road games, if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  Additionally, La-Lafayette has covered just 30% over the last 19 seasons as favorites vs. Conference foes off upset losses, while Arkansas State has gone 42-29 ATS at home vs. Conference foes, including 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 ATS their last 10 with revenge.  And the Red Wolves do, in fact, have revenge, as they lost 47-43 last season to the Cajuns.  Finally, the Rajin' Cajuns fall into negative 84-162 and 40-111 ATS systems of mine after losing, 17-7, at home last week to Appalachian State.  Take Arkansas State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Washington/Miami game.  These two teams have combined to go 0-9 this season, and are arguably the two worst teams in football.  It's true that each team lacks skilled offensive players, which would greatly explain why Miami has yet to score two touchdowns in a game, and why Washington (after QB Case Keenum's injury) has been unable to score twice in either of its two previous games.  Of course, it must also be noted that both teams have played strong defenses this season.  Washington has faced New England, Chicago, Dallas and Philly, while Miami has also gone up New England and Dallas, and played the Chargers and Baltimore, as well.  Thus, today's game is a significant departure for each team, as far as the defense it will face (Washington gives up 30.2 ppg; Miami surrenders 40.7 ppg).  I expect both offenses to move the ball, and for this game to be relatively high-scoring.  Indeed, since 1986, NFL match-ups (at Game 3 forward) between two teams whose defenses have each given up more than 30 points per game have gone 'over' the total 64.2% of the time.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Cincinnati.  We played on the Bearcats last week in their 27-24 upset win over Central Florida.  Although we certainly won't bemoan the result, it's also true that Cincinnati greatly benefited from the four Central Florida turnovers, as Cincy was outgained by 82 yards.  The Bearcats now have to travel to Houston, and have been installed as a road favorite.  Houston also comes into this game off a win, 46-25, at North Texas.  And the Cougars are 30-11 ATS at home off a road win, including 7-0 ATS their last seven.  More ammunition for taking the points with the home underdog:  Houston's won 25 of its last 28 games at TDECU Stadium.  And two of its three defeats were by just 3 and 4 points.  Finally, American Athletic home underdogs, priced from +4 to +12.5 points, have gone 20-5 ATS off a win.  Take the Cougars.  AAC Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New England.  Last week, the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots blew out Washington, 33-7.  And that moved New England to 5-0 on the season.  On Thursday night, they will face the injury-riddled Giants, and have been installed as a favorite of more than two touchdowns.  It's always dangerous to lay this many points in the NFL, as double-digit favorites fail to cover the spread more often than not.  And we will happily take New York with the points in this game.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs have only covered 29% over the past 40 seasons if they were off a 20-point (or greater) road win, and matched up against an opponent off a loss.  And New England's 1-6 ATS when laying more than 17 points.  None of this bodes well for New England here.  Nor does the fact that the Giants are an awesome 25-9 ATS their last 34 when getting more than 9 points, including a perfect 11-0 ATS since December 18, 2004!  Finally, the Giants fall into 71-34, 231-140 and 76-32 ATS systems of mine based on the two teams' statistical profiles.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Syracuse.  The Wolfpack come into this game off an 18-point blowout loss at Florida State twelve days ago.  And they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games.  But we will take NC State here, at home, as it falls into a 96-33 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Additionally, the Wolfpack are a perfect 10-0-1 ATS at home off a 14-point (or worse) defeat when matched up against a .500 (or better) conference foe off a home win.  Finally, ACC teams on a 3-game (or worse) point spread losing streak are 59-37 ATS in home conference games, if their opponent isn't also on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing with a week of rest.  Take NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns over Appalachian State.  These two teams met twice last season, with the Mountaineers taking both games by similar scored.  They won in the regular season, 27-17, and then prevailed in the inaugural Sun Belt Conference Title game, 30-19.  But both of those games last season were played at home, in Boone, North Carolina.  Tonight's game will be at "The Swamp," in Lafayette, Louisiana, where the Rajin' Cajuns have won six straight games.  Even better:  the Cajuns are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season, and Billy Napier's men also fall into 36-16 and 20-1 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Finally, Lafayette has scored 77, 45 and 37 points in its three previous games.  And rested NCAA teams on a 3-game (or better) win streak, that have scored more than 150 points over their three previous games, have cashed 81.1 percent since 1980 at home.  Take Louisiana-Lafayette.  SUN BELT GAME OF THE WEEK.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Last week, the Steelers blew out division rival, Cincinnati, 27-3, for their first win of the season.  Meanwhile, the Ravens also played a division rival, Cleveland, but were upset, 40-25, as a 7.5-point favorite.  That was Baltimore's 2nd straight defeat, as it also narrowly lost, 33-28, to Kansas City, which is one of the AFC's top two teams.  I love Baltimore to bounce back off those 2 losses, as NFL teams off an upset loss by more than 14 points have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. opponents off a win by 20+ points.  Also, the Ravens are outscoring foes by an impressive 8.75 points per game.  And the Steelers are 0-7 ATS their last seven at home vs. foes that owned a scoring margin of 5.5 (or better).  Finally, Baltimore is a solid 21-11-3 ATS on the road off a home upset defeat, including a perfect 4-0-1 ATS if it was favored by more than 7 points in its previous game.  Take Baltimore minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Auburn.  The Gators come into this match-up of Top 10-rated SEC teams off back-to-back stellar defensive efforts.  Two weeks ago, the Gators held Tennessee to 3 points in a 31-point victory.  Then, last Saturday, Florida shut out the Towson Tigers, 38-0.  The 5-0 Gators are giving up just 8.8 points per game, yet have been installed as a home underdog in this contest.  We'll take the points with Florida, as home underdogs have gone 67.7% ATS, at Game 5 forward, if their defense was surrendering 13.5 (or less) points per game, and they were matched up against a conference foe with a winning SU and ATS record.  Even better:  Florida's an awesome 65-38-2 ATS in SEC Conference games off back to back double-digit wins, while Auburn's 12-25 ATS vs. Conference foes off back-to-back double-digit wins (including 1-6 ATS if Auburn was favored).  Take Florida + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Central Florida.  The Bearcats are 3-1 SU/ATS on the season, with their only SU/ATS defeat to Ohio State.  Of course, a 42-0 loss to Ohio State is not all that bad, given it was the lowest amount of points the Buckeyes scored all season.  Last week, the Bearcats went into Marshall, and blew out the Thundering Herd, 52-14, as a 4-point road favorite.  Off that 38-point blowout win, we'll grab the points with Cincy in this American Athletic Conference opener for the Bearcats.  Since 1980, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 58.1% in home Conference games off a blowout win the previous week by more than 35 points.  That bodes well for the Bearcats on Friday.  As does the fact that Cincy's 27-15 ATS its last 42 as underdogs priced from +3 to +7.5 points, while Central Florida's 4-12 ATS its last 16 as a road favorite of -3 to -7.5 points.  Take the Bearcats.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Both of these teams come into this Monday Night Football game with an 0-3 record.  And each team lost road games in Weeks 1 + 3, and a home game in Week 2.  But even though the profile of these two teams is similar, the Bengals have been the better team as far as the point spread is concerned.  Cincy is 2-1 ATS, while Pittsburgh is 1-2 ATS.  And the Bengals' point spread differential is 4.5 ppg better than that of the Steelers, while its margin of victory is 2.33 ppg better.  We'll grab the points with the Bengals, as winless home favorites have gone 10-20 ATS in Week 4 since 1983, while winless road underdogs have cashed 25 of their last 36 in Week 4.  Even better:  Monday Night Football favorites of 6 points or less have covered just 22% of the time since 1982, provided their win percentage was less than .300.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars + the points over Utah.  Both of these teams were upset last week.  Wazzu blew a 32-point lead in a 67-63 loss to the UCLA Bruins, while Utah fell to USC, 30-23, as a 3.5-point road favorite.  The silver lining for Mike Leach's Cougars is that QB Anthony Gordon established a school record with nine touchdown passes, and he also threw for 570 yards.  Unfortunately, the Cougars committed six turnovers to aid the Bruins' comeback, which was the 3rd largest deficit overcome in NCAA Football Division 1 history.  I love Washington State to rebound on the road as an underdog at Utah.  After all, since 1981, single digit underdogs off a loss as a double-digit conference home favorite, have covered 66% the following week vs. conference foes.  And Washington State is a solid 16-5 ATS its last 21 as a road underdog, while Utah is a dreadful 18-37 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of less than 12 points (or PK) vs. winning foes.  The Cougars have covered the last four meetings vs. Utah, by an average of 8.9 ppg.  Take Washington State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over California.  The Golden Bears are 4-0 and ranked among the Top 20 teams in the country after last week's upset win at Mississippi.  And that was the 2nd upset win on the road this year for Justin Wilcox's men.  Unfortunately, California has not had the same success in front of their home faithful.  In Berkeley this season, the Bears are 0-2 ATS.  And they're a wallet-busting 5-16 ATS their last 21 when favored by less than 7 points (or PK).  Even worse for California:  since 1980, Pac-12 (or Pac-10) Conference teams have cashed just 13.3% at home off an upset road win, if they were matched up against a .666 (or better) foe off a loss.  Last week, Arizona State fell to 3-1 on the season with a 34-31 upset loss to Colorado, so it qualifies in my 86.7% ATS angle.  And the Sun Devils are also a super 16-3-1 ATS off a loss if their opponent is a Pac-12 Conference rival off a SU win, including 9-0 ATS their last nine as an underdog.  Off last weekend's defeat, we'll grab the points with the Sun Devils to bounce back on this Friday.  Take ASU + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals have been installed as a home favorite, notwithstanding the fact that they're winless on the season, and have covered just five of their last 18 games as a home favorite.  Yes, it's true that Carolina's #1 QB, Cam Newton, is sidelined with a foot injury.  But I don't view this entirely as a negative, as Newton was hampering his team with his horrible play.  In the first two games, he was 50-for-89 for 572 yards, but 0 touchdowns, and one interception.  On the ground, Newton was even worse, as he had 5 carries for minus-2 yards, and two fumbles.  His QB rating is 26.9, which ranks #29 in the league!  So, Ron Rivera's club will turn to Kyle Allen, a second-year QB out of the University of Houston.  Allen made one start last season, and was impressive in a 33-14 road victory over New Orleans.  Allen completed 16 of 27 passes for 228 yards, and accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing).  That experience in front of a hostile crowd will stand him in good stead on Sunday, and I expect him to play extremely well.  The Panthers fall into several of my favorite NFL systems, with records of 135-63, 156-70, 107-43, 153-74, 63-25 and 40-19 ATS since 1980.  And the Panthers are also 39-18 ATS as a road underdog vs. foes that don't have a winning record, including 26-9 ATS vs. non-division opponents.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Southern Mississippi.  The Crimson Tide come into this Saturday game off 3 wins, but back to back point spread defeats in their last two games.  However, the good news for Alabama fans is that it is 13-1 ATS in the regular season since 1996 off back to back wins, if they lost against the point spread in each game.  And their only ATS loss over this 14-game stretch was by a mere point (65-31 vs. Arkansas, as a 35-point favorite, in 2018).  Additionally, the Golden Eagles are an awful 1-7 ATS as an underdog of 28+ points.  And Alabama also falls into a super 63-21 ATS system of mine which plays on certain big favorites to blow out their opponent.  Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Houston.  Tulane is off to its best start since 2013 (when it also began the season with a 2-1 record).  And the Green Wave's lone defeat this season was on the road, at #8 Auburn, 24-6.  In its other two games -- both at home -- the Green Wave thrashed Florida International, 42-14, as a 3-point favorite, and also demolished Missouri St., 58-6.  This game will also be played in New Orleans, at Yulman Stadium, where Tulane has won 10 of its last 14 games (7-4 ATS).  Faithful followers know I love playing on teams that can score, and especially when they're matched up against woeful defensive clubs.  Tulane is averaging 35.3 ppg, while Houston is surrendering 32.3 ppg, so I fully expect Willie Fritz's men to light up the scoreboard tonight.  Tulane is a super 7-0-1 ATS at home off a win by 28+ points.  And it's 25-12 ATS when priced between -3 and -7.5 points at home, or on a neutral field.  The favorite in this rivalry has gone 16-2 straight-up, and 14-4 ATS when priced at -3 or higher.  Lay the points with Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs opened up their season with a 40-26 win at Jacksonville, while Oakland upset Denver this past Monday night.  One of the things I love to do is go against teams that scored a lot of points in Week 1.  Indeed, since 1980, the majority of NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in Week 1 have scored less than 23 in Week 2.  So, it's not really a surprise that NFL teams have cashed just 28% in Week 2 as favorites of more than 4 points, if they scored more than 38 points in Week 1.  Last season, for example, the Saints scored 40 in Week 1, and were favored by 10 points vs. Cleveland in Week 2, but scored just 21, in a 3-point win, and failed to cover the point spread.  I look for KC's offense to be held in check by Jon Gruden's men.  Take Oakland + the points.  NFL High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers opened their 2019 campaign with an impressive 10-3 upset win at defending NFC North division champ, Chicago.  On Sunday, the Packers will try to move to 2-0 within the division, as it tackles its other big rival, Minnesota.  Unfortunately, the Packers have gone 0-6 with one Tie after a straight-up win since Dec. 17, 2017.  And they're 0-6-1 ATS off their last seven point spread victories.  Yikes!  Green Bay also has gone 0-5-1 straight-up, and 1-5 ATS vs. the Vikings since 2016 when not favored by 6+ points.  And single-digit home favorites have covered just 41% in Week 2 off an upset victory in Week 1.  Take Minnesota.  NFL Division Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Cornhuskers have yet to break into the point spread win column this year, as they're 0-2 ATS with losses to Colorado and South Alabama, while the Huskies are 2-0 ATS with point spread victories vs. Illinois State and Utah.  Last week, Nebraska was favored by 4 points on the road, but fell to the Buffaloes in overtime, 34-31.  It actually played a great first half, and broke out to a 17-0 lead.  QB Adrian Martinez was key in that first stanza, as he was 9-of-9 for 180 yards, and also ran for 45 yards on six carries.  Unfortunately, he fumbled the ball three times in that game -- and lost two of them -- which was a big part of the Cornhuskers' undoing.  I like Nebraska to rebound this evening, as in Game 3 of the season, College Football home favorites have covered 65% of the time off an upset loss, if they were winless ATS on the season, and their foe was perfect ATS.  That bodes well for Nebraska tonight.  As does the fact that it has covered 69.7% since 1980 off a SU/ATS loss the previous week, if its opponent was off a point spread win (including a perfect 8-0 ATS when priced from -9 to -18.5 points).  Lay the points with Nebraska.  NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Western Kentucky. This game will be played at a neutral site -- Nissan Stadium, in Nashville, Tennessee. Last week, we played on Western Kentucky as a touchdown underdog at Florida International, and were rewarded with a 20-14 upset victory. The Hilltoppers will now try to make it two-upsets-in-a-row tonight, and snap a 10-game losing streak to Louisville in the process. Last year, it started off well enough for WKU, as it broke out to a 14-0 lead. But it couldn't finish the job, and fell 20-17, as a 23.5-point underdog. The point spread is much lower in this game, so there's much less margin for error for the Hilltoppers. The Cardinals are 1-1 on the season, including a 35-17 defeat in Week 1 vs. Notre Dame. But Louisville was only outgained by 40 yards (423-383) in that game, and the Irish are ranked #7 in the country. Louisville did bounce back last Saturday with a 42-0 whitewash of Eastern Kentucky. And NCAA teams are 335-252-6 ATS away from home in the regular season off a shutout win, if matched up against an unrested foe. Lay the points with Scott Satterfield's Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over North Carolina.  Interestingly, these two ACC Carolina rivals have not played since 2015.  The Tar Heels won (and covered) that game, which was the fourth straight meeting won, and fifth straight meeting covered, by the home team.  The Tar Heels are 2-0 after upsetting Miami-Fla last week, and South Carolina in Week 1.  Mack Brown's men will now play their first true road game of the season.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams off back to back upset wins to start a season have cashed just 37% since 1980.  Even worse:  undefeated teams have cashed just 28% since 2001 in Game 3 of the season, if they are off an upset win, and now playing their first road game of the year.  With North Carolina entering this game on a 7-game road losing streak, we'll lay the small number with Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Pittsburgh.  These two teams met last season, and we had a huge play on the Steelers as a 3-point home underdog.  Pittsburgh played without Le'Veon Bell but still won that game, 17-10.  But that game was in the Steel City.  This Sunday night's game is in Foxborough, where the Patriots have never lost to Pittsburgh with Tom Brady at QB (Pittsburgh did win in 2008, but Matt Cassel was New England's QB that day).  With Brady under center, New England has gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS vs. the Steelers.  Even better:  Bill Belichick's Patriots have cashed 76.4% ATS when playing with revenge from an upset defeat, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -8.5 points.  And defending Super Bowl champs have cashed 85% since 1983 in Week 1 when they opened the season at home, and weren't favored by 6.5 (or more) points.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Chargers were a darling among bettors last season, and were widely touted, at the end of the regular season, to reach the Super Bowl from the AFC.  I wasn't as optimistic, as it's virtually impossible to win an NFL Championship as a Wild Card team.  Indeed, I had a big play against the Chargers when they went into New England in the quarter-finals, and was rewarded with an easy 41-28 win.  This season, I believe the Chargers will be one of the league's top teams again.  Unfortunately, they reside in a division with the equally-talented Kansas City Chiefs, so they might be a Wild Card entry once again.  Here, though, in the opening game of the season, they are a decided favorite vs. an Andrew Luck-less Colts team which will now be hard-pressed to earn a 2nd consecutive AFC South division title.  The Chargers have run roughshod over AFC South division foes over the years, as they're 29-5-1 ATS since 2002, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Colts.  And, going back further, one finds that the Chargers are 19-7 ATS vs. the Colts since 1981.  It's true that Los Angeles has stumbled out of the gate with losses in Week 1 each of the previous three seasons.  But they were road underdogs in two of those three games.  For this contest, they're a touchdown favorite.  And NFL teams favored between 6 and 7 points in Week 1, that won a Playoff game the previous season, have gone 12-0 straight-up since 2006, and 30-4 straight-up since 1981.  The Chargers also fall into several of my best Week 1 angles that are 57-28, 75-36 and 72-44 ATS since 1980.  Lay the points with Philip Rivers & Co.  NFL Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Tennessee.  The Cleveland Browns enter 2019 on an 11-season losing streak.  Since 2008, they've gone 45-130-1 straight-up, and 76-95-5 ATS!  The good news, though, for those on Lake Erie is that head coach Hue Jackson was fired midway through last season.  Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator for the season's final eight games.  And then he was named head coach 13 days after the season ended (ex-Tampa Bay offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, will take over as OC for the Browns).  This season, most observers believe the Browns will battle it out with Pittsburgh for the AFC Central division title (both teams are projected to win nine games), and I actually would give the edge to Cleveland in that race.  Notwithstanding Cleveland's poor history since 2008, it's still hard to make a case for Tennessee away from home.  Indeed, the Titans have routinely burned money on the road since 2013, as they're 15-29-1 ATS outside The Volunteer State, including 0-2 ATS vs. these Browns.  Meanwhile, Cleveland falls into several strong angles of mine, with records of 66-33, 61-21, 83-47, 81-47 and 65-26 ATS.  A lot of folks are still in a "wait-and-see" mode with Cleveland, after it added Odell Beckham, Jr. in the offseason to a young, and talented corps of offensive players (e.g., Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb).  I'm not waiting.  I'm "all in" right now.  Lay the points with Cleveland.  NFL Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.       

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last year, the Rams were my preseason pick (at 10-1 odds) to win the Super Bowl.  I also had the New England Patriots at 5-2 odds to win the AFC.  So, I came very close to being perfect on my preseason predictions.  This year, I went with the Saints (at 10-1 odds) as my preseason Super Bowl pick.  One reason I ultimately decided to not go with the Rams this season is that the loser of the Super Bowl has often struggled the following season.  We saw that last season with Atlanta, which had a losing record the year after it lost the Super Bowl, in overtime, to New England.  Another reason is that the Rams have a somewhat difficult non-division schedule this season, as they have to play road games at Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Atlanta and this game vs. the Panthers.  Last season, they had a relatively easy non-division road schedule, including games against the Raiders, Lions and Broncos.  The Panthers are 23-11 ATS at home vs. non-division foes (including 12-2 ATS when not favored by 3+ points), and they're also 6-2 ATS their last eight as a home underdog.  And they're 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 meetings vs. the Rams.  Finally, the Rams fall into negative 2-22 and 6-30 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams in competitively-priced games.  Take Carolina.  NFL High Roller! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Kansas City.  Two years ago, the Jaguars reached the AFC Championship game, and led New England with less than 3 minutes to go before succumbing to defeat, 24-20.  Last season, RB Leonard Fournette went down early with an injury, and the Jaguars' season unraveled from there.  This season, Fournette is healthy, and the Jaguars will also have a better signal caller, as Nick Foles has taken over the reins at QB.  The defense ranked #4 last season in scoring defense, and will once again be fierce, as most of last year's starters are returning.  And the Jaguars also drafted Josh Allen, who was the 2018 Defensive Player of the Year in College Football.  These two teams met last season at Arrowhead Stadium.  Yes, Kansas City won that home game, 30-14.  But it was not a good day for QB Patrick Mahomes.  He was 22 of 38 for 313 yards, and failed to complete a touchdown pass.  He also threw two interceptions, and had the lowest passer rating of his career in that game.  Jacksonville allowed an average of just 195 passing yards per game last season, and I expect it to once again have success vs. Mahomes.  Meanwhile, with Foles and Fournette on the field, Jacksonville should be able to move the ball very well vs. KC's lackluster defense.  Take the home underdog Jaguars.  NFL Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs + the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met last season in Minneapolis, and the Gophers survived to win 21-14, after a trick play went awry in the game's final moments.  The Bulldogs were on Minnesota's 4-yard line and attempted to tie the score with a halfback pass to their tight end, who was stationed in the back of the end zone. Unfortunately, Josh Hokit didn't get enough on his throw, and it was intercepted by Minny's Antoine Winfield, Jr.  We will play on the Bulldogs as a home underdog in this revenge game, as Big 10 teams have been dreadful as non-conference single-digit road favorites vs. revenge-minded foes.  Since 1984 they've covered just 36% of the time.  Take Fresno + the points.  NCAA Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.