At 11:30 am, in an EARLY game, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Air Force.  This game will be played on a neutral field, in Arlington, Texas.  And each of this teams come into this morning's game off losses to what was -- at least then -- an undefeated opponent.  Army was wiped out, 70-56, by unbeaten Wake Forest two weeks ago, while Air Force lost two weeks ago at home, as a 3-point favorite, to then-undefeated San Diego State.  Unfortunately, Air Force's upset defeat sets it up in a negative 43-115 ATS system today which goes against certain winning teams off upset losses.  Even worse:  the Falcons are 1-15 ATS their last 16 away from home off an upset loss!  Grab the points with Army.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Eagles are 0-4 SU in ACC play, with blowout losses (by 14+ points) in each of their last three games.  That sets them up well for this game, as home teams that are off a SU/ATS loss, and are winless in conference play (with an 0-4 or worse record), have cashed 58.4% the past 42 years vs. foes off a point spread win.  Moreover, Boston College falls into a great 196-97 ATS revenge system of mine, based on their 40-14 loss at Virginia Tech last season.  Take the Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts UNDER the total.  The Jets have played their last four games OVER, including a 34-31 upset of the Bengals last week.  Meanwhile, the Colts have played four of their last 5 OVER, including a 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee last week.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game tonight.  But I don't see it that way, as my numbers project a relatively low-scoring game.  Indeed, games involving a team off 4+ overs, with over/under lines of 45+ points, have gone 'under' 57% majority of the time when their opponent was also off 2+ overs.  Likewise, in matchups between two teams that were each involved in high-scoring (59+ points) games their last time out, the 'under' has cashed 67.8% over the past 36+ seasons when the over/under line ranged from 45 to 52 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies won at Central Michigan in their last game, 39-38, as a 6-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, Mid-American Conference road teams have covered just 34% of conference games since 1999 as underdogs following an upset win over a conference foe as a 5-point (or greater) underdog.  Admittedly, the Huskies have dominated this series with 10 straight wins vs. Kent State.  But they were favored to win nine of those 10 games (by an average of 10.5 ppg), including -14.5, -7, -8, -25.5, -7 and -23 in the past six seasons.  Tonight, though, Kent has been installed as a home favorite for the first time in this series.  And they fall into an 81-44 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Golden Flashes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Western Michigan.  The Chips come into this game off an upset home loss at the hands of Northern Illinois.  Central Michigan was favored by 6 points, but lost, 39-38.  Western Michigan also lost its last game, as it fell at Toledo, 34-15, as a 1.5-point favorite.  We'll take the points with the Chippewas, as Mid-American Conference teams are 35-10 ATS off an upset home loss, if they were playing an opponent also off a straight-up loss, including 20-3 ATS if our team was favored by 4+ points in their previous game.  Take Central Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys have won five straight games, yet find themselves installed as a road underdog tonight, as they might be without their quarterback, Dak Prescott, who is a 'game-time decision.'  We'll lay the points with Minnesota, and play against Dallas, as .800 (or better) NFL underdogs, at Game 7 forward, have covered just 31% of non-division games since 1980 when matched up against a non-winning opponent.  Take the Vikings to hand Dallas its first loss since Week 1.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the ponts over Tampa Bay.  The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers routed the Chicago Bears, 38-3, last weekend.  Unfortunately, defending Super Bowl champs have covered just 33% as road favorites the following week after winning by 20+ points.  Moreover, Sean Payton has gone 59-27 ATS as coach of the Saints vs. .500 (or better) foes off a SU win.  Take New Orleans + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Rams are averaging 29.57 ppg, and have scored 28, 38, and 26 over their last three games.  They will surely put up points against a Texans club which has surrendered 31, 31 and 25 over its last three outings.  And while it's true that Houston's offense has its own issues, it did put up 22 vs. a very good Patriots defense here in its most recent home game.  And it's averaging 22.66 ppg at home this season (compared to just 7.25 ppg on the road).  I expect Houston to put up a much better fight this afternoon in front of its home faithful than it did on the road the past two weeks.  And the OVER also falls into a 62-31 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals UNDER the total.  This is the Bengals 3rd straight road game, and they exploded for 34 and 41 points in their first two.  Unfortunately that offensive output is unlikely to occur for a 3rd straight road game, as NFL teams that scored more than 28 in back to back road games only average 15.75 ppg in the 3rd road game.  And those games have gone 'under' the total by an average of 5.06 ppg.  The UNDER also falls into a super 92-46 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a low-scoring game on Sunday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Bills walloped the Dolphins, 35-0.  We'll take Miami in the rematch as a huge double digit underdog, as NFL teams that played with revenge from a shutout loss earlier in the season, have cashed 70% when getting more than 4 points.  Additionally, since 1980, NFL teams playing with revenge from a loss by 35+ points have covered 68.4% vs. .666 (or better) division foes.  Take Miami + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Tennessee.  The Titans pulled off a big upset last week, when they knocked off Kansas City, 27-3, as a 4-point home underdog.  And that was the 2nd straight upset win at home by Tennessee.  But they're now playing on the road, and against a division foe which will seek revenge from a 9-point loss in Nashville, in September.  We'll go against Tennessee, as unrested road underdogs have covered just 38.7% over the last 42 seasons following back to back home upset wins.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Cincinnati.  The 5-2 Bengals come into New York off a huge divisional upset win over the Baltimore Ravens, as they snapped Baltimore's 5-game win streak.  But NFL road favorites have covered just 28% since 1980 after an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog, if that upset win involved two teams with .666 (or better) win percentages.  I look for a big letdown by the Bengals on the road.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  Carolina has lost its last 4 games in a row, but now fall into a 37-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on long losing streaks, as well as a 51-32 ATS angle which plays on teams off outright losses as a road favorite, when matched up against opponents off SU/ATS wins as a road favorite.  With Carolina, indeed, off an upset, 25-3, loss on the road at New York, and Atlanta in off a road favorite SU/ATS win over the Dolphins, we'll grab the points with Carolina this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Cougars over the SMU Mustangs.  This is a great Lone Star State match-up in the American Athletic Conference, as Dana Holgorsen's Cougars are 6-1, while Sonny Dykes' Mustangs are a game better, at 7-0.  The Ponies come into this game off a 55-26 blowout win over Tulane, as a 14-point favorite.  But SMU is an awful 9-28 ATS on the conference road off a win by 7+ points over a conference foe.  And it's 13-37 ATS as a road underdog of +10 points or less (or PK).  Meanwhile, Houston is a powerful 24-10 ATS its last 34 vs. conference foes that were undefeated in conference play, and it's also 9-1 ATS its last 10 vs. conference rivals that owned a .900 (or better) season W/L percentage.  Finally, SMU falls into a negative 6-31-1 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain undefeated teams.  Take Houston to blow out the Mustangs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Kentucky.  Mississippi State lost, 24-2, at Kentucky last season, so they'll be out to avenge that defeat on Saturday.  The task will no doubt be tough, as Mark Stoops' Wildcats are 4-1 in the SEC this season (and 5-0 ATS), and 6-1 overall.  Still, Kentucky finds itself the road underdog in Starkville this evening.  In their last game, they lost for the first time this season, as #1-ranked Georgia handed Kentucky a 30-13 setback.  Off that first defeat, we'll fade Kentucky on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State, as teams that sustain their first loss, following a 5-0 (or better) start to the season have covered just 43% over the last 42 years, including an awful 24 of 70 away from home vs. sub-.600 teams.  This season, there have already been 4 teams that fell into this general "bubble-burst" system, and those teams went 1-3 ATS, including Coastal Carolina not covering this past Thursday vs. Troy (as a 17-point favorite), and Penn State losing outright to Illinois last Saturday as a 24.5-point favorite!  The Bulldogs are also 16-8 ATS their last 24 at home vs. .857 (or better) opposition.  And they're also 26-14 ATS when favored, and playing with revenge.  Take Mississippi State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Texas El Paso.  The Miners are no doubt having strong season, as they're 6-1, including 3 straight wins to open their Conference USA schedule.  But .833 (or better) road underdogs of more than 5 points, with a 2-0 (or better) conference record, have covered just 36.7% of conference road games over the last 42 years.  And double-digit dogs have covered just 32.1% off 4 SU/ATS wins, if they're matched up against a conference foe off a double-digit win.  Florida Atlantic has won its three home games this season by 29, 37 and 32 points, and has won 11 straight at home dating back to November 9, 2019.  Even better:  since 2017, it's 24-4 SU and 15-9 ATS at home (including 7-0 ATS when priced from -8.5 to -15), and has covered the spread at home by an average of 7.34 ppg.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Sooners are a perfect 8-0 on the season, but struggled last week in a 12-point win at Kansas, as a 38-point favorite.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Sooners, who are burning money this season, at 3-5 ATS.  But consider that NCAA teams, off wins by less than 13 points as 35-point (or greater) favorites, have bounced back to cover the spread in their next game 68.4% of the time since 1980.  Additionally, Oklahoma falls into one of my favorite systems which is 278-189-8 ATS which plays on certain teams off ATS defeats.   The Sooners have won 9 straight in this series and they're 7-1 ATS their last 8 at home vs. the Red Raiders.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Florida State.  Dabo Swinney's men have yet to cover the point spread this season.  The result is that we're now getting point spread value on the Tigers in this home game vs. Florida State, as they're favored by less than 10 points.  And winless ATS teams, favored by single digits, with a winning SU record, have covered 63.8% vs. conference foes off a SU win.  Even better:  the Seminoles are 1-6 ATS off a cover by 21+ points, if playing a conference foe off a loss.  And Clemson is 42-23 ATS at home vs. ACC Conference foes when not laying 10+ points.  Take the Tigers.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Florida International.  The Panthers won their opening game vs. Long Island, but have lost all six games since, including a 34-19 defeat at home to Western Kentucky last Saturday.  Florida International is now 0-3 this season in Conference USA games; 0-8 SU since Nov. 9, 2010; and has covered just 3 of its last 13 conference games.  And, to make matters worse, Marshall had last week off to rest and prepare for this game.  That's key, as the Panthers fall into a negative 28-69 ATS system of mine that goes against certain losing teams vs. a rested foe.  Lay the points with Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Wisconsin.  Kirk Ferentz's men have had two weeks to lick their wounds following their 17-point upset loss at the hands of Purdue, in Ames.  Then, the week after that game, Wisconsin blew out that same Purdue team by 17 points.  We actually had a huge play on Wisconsin last week.  But we will switch gears, and go against the Badgers as a home favorite on Saturday.  Indeed, I love playing on great teams, with an .833 (or better) win percentage, off double-digit losses as double-digit favorites, as such teams tend to rebound off those horrid upset defeats more often than not, and especially when not laying 20+ points, as they're 76% ATS over the last 41 seasons.  Moreover, Iowa is 20-8 ATS in Big 10 games off an upset conference loss, if they own a winning record.  Take the Hawkeyes + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Miami-Fla.  The Panthers are on a roll, with 4 straight wins and covers.  And they'll welcome the Hurricanes to the Steel City on Saturday after Miami pulled off an upset against NC State last weekend.  But Miami is a wallet-breaking 1-12 ATS off a home win, while the Panthers are 17-5 ATS in conference games at home off a double-digit conference win.  And Pitt also falls into 113-42 and 270-178 ATS systems of mine that fade certain road teams off upset victories.  It's true that the Panthers' star WR, Jordan Addison (670 Yds, 10 TDs), who suffered a concussion last week, is a 'game-time decision.'  But Addison practiced in pads on Thursday, so even though he'll need medical clearance, there's optimism that he'll be on the field.  Regardless, we'll take Kenny Pickett & Co. on Saturday to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Illinois.  Last week, the Illini won a 9-overtime thriller vs. Penn State.  And the Illini were 24.5-point underdogs in that game.  Unfortunately, home underdogs off upset road wins as 17-point (or greater) underdogs have covered just 37% over the last 42 years.  Take Rutgers minus the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Navy.  Tulsa is 3-4 this season (after winning its last two games), and still has road games at #2 Cincinnati and #19 SMU.  So, unless it can pull a huge upset against either of those two juggernauts, it knows it must win the other 3 games on its schedule to qualify for a bowl game.  The good news is that its other three opponents are Navy (1-6), Tulane (1-6), and Temple (3-4), so there's no reason that Tulsa can't reach the post-season.  In its last game -- 13 days ago -- Tulsa eked out a 1-point win at South Florida, but failed to cover the 7-point spread.  But we'll look for the Golden Hurricane to bounce back on Friday, as it's 25-6-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread vs. a conference foe in its previous game, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS when laying 7+ points.  Additionally, Navy has covered just 5 of 23 off a loss when playing an opponent off back to back wins.  And Tulsa falls into a 271-173-3 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested teams in the regular season.  Lay the points with Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over East Carolina.  The Bulls broke out in a big way in their last game, as they amassed a whopping 421 yards on the ground, in a 34-14 win vs. Temple, as a 1.5-point favorite.  South Florida has been installed as a double-digit underdog here, in Greenville, tonight.  And that bodes well for the Bulls, as East Carolina has covered just six of its last 23 as a favorite, including 0-6 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU win!  Meanwhile, the Bulls are 17-9 ATS on the road vs. conference foes when not laying more than 3 points.  Finally, East Carolina falls into negative 111-210 and 56-125 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off SU losses.  Take The Bulls + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Indianapolis.  Jimmy Garoppolo will be back on the field for this Sunday Night game, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the 49ers.  In their last game, the Niners started rookie Trey Lance and -- though he did some things well -- on balance, he underwhelmed, (15-for-29, 192 yds, 1 INT), and was stopped at the goal line on a key rush attempt.  The 49ers had last week off to regroup from that loss (and the two previous losses before it), so they'll try to snap their 3-game losing streak tonight.  Key stat:  rested teams off 3+ losses are 85-58-2 ATS their last 145.  Even better:  San Francisco 84-57-3 ATS when favored by 3.5 (or more) points off an ATS loss, and it is also 7-0 ATS after not covering the spread in any of their three previous games.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals are undefeated, and outscoring their opponents by 14.16 ppg.  On the opposite end of the spectrum are the Texans, who are being outscored by 13.33 ppg.  Thus, the relative Total Scoring Margin is +27.5 ppg for Arizona, which explains why we have such a high point spread.  But in the NFL, it's tough to lay this many points, regardless of how good (or bad) a team is.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams getting more than 17 points have cashed 21 of 36 games (58.3% ATS).  But if our underdog's relative scoring margin ranged between -20 and -30.5 points, then our underdogs of more than 17 points have gone 17-1 ATS, including an outright win by the Jets (+17.5) over the Rams last December, and another outright win by the Dolphins (+17.5) over the Patriots in December 2019.  Take Houston as a huge underdog.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Las Vegas.  The Eagles last played 10 days ago, when they lost (but covered) in a Thursday Night home game vs. the defending champion, Buccaneers.  And that was the 2nd straight ATS win for Philadelphia.  Meanwhile, the Raiders started the post-Jon Gruden Era with a 34-24 upset win over division rival, Denver.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they've covered just 29 of 84 following an upset win, including just 14 of 48 if their opponent was off a SU loss.  And Philly is an awesome 62-35-1 ATS in non-division games off a SU loss, if it wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  We'll grab the points with the road underdog Eagles.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants UNDER the total.  After giving up 44 points to Dallas and 38 points to the Los Angeles Rams (both of which average more than 400 yards per game), the Giants will no doubt be happy to face a middle-of-the-pack offensive team like Carolina.  Over the last 42 years, the Giants have gone 'under' the total 75% of the time after giving up 34+ points in back to back losses.  And they've also gone under 59% after a loss by 27+ points.  Finally, the Giants have gone 'under' in 19 of 28 games as a home underdog, including the last 6 in a row, while Carolina is 9-2 'under' as a road favorite.  This will be a very low-scoring game.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers are sitting at 5-1, with five straight wins and covers following their season-opening blowout loss vs. New Orleans.  Meanwhile, Washington is off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That's led to this number being inflated, and we'll step in and take Washington + the points.  For technical support, consider that Washington is 46-25 ATS vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  And the Packers have covered just 2 of 12 games vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss, if the Packers were off 4 SU/ATS wins.  Finally, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS wins have covered just 36% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses since 1980.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Tennessee.  We played on the Titans as a home underdog last Monday night, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Buffalo Bills.  But off that victory, we will fade the Titans here, at home, as an underdog against Kansas City.  The fact of the matter is that it's tough for teams to pull off two straight upset wins, when coming off a short week following an upset win on Monday Night Football.  Indeed, consider that, since 1994, at Game 3 forward, NFL home dogs of less than seven points have gone 0-13 SU/ATS after an upset win at home on Monday Night Football the previous week.  That doesn't bode well for Tennessee here.  Likewise, if the short week was Sunday thru Thursday, those teams coming off an upset home win have gone 5-11 ATS as an underdog of less than 7 points (so, 5-24 ATS combined).  Finally, since Andy Reid has been coach of KC, it has gone 27-13 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Take the Chiefs minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Dolphins were upset in London by the previously-winless Jaguars, 23-20, last Sunday.  Atlanta also played in London in its last game -- two weeks ago -- and it was victorious against the New York Jets.  We'll take Miami to bounce back here at home, as it's been installed as a home dog this afternoon.  And home underdogs are 134-103, 57% ATS following an upset loss, if they're playing an opponent off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Falcons are a wallet-busting 10-22 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points against a foe off an upset defeat.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Utah.  The Utes have had an emotional two weeks, as they congregated for a memorial service 12 days ago for defensive back, Aaron Lowe, who died in late September.  On the football field, they've been resilient, as they're on a 3-game win streak to start Pac-12 play (after losing their first two Division 1 games this season to BYU and San Diego St).  They'll now try -- for the first time -- to start the Pac-12 season 4-0.  Unfortunately, teams undefeated in Pac-12 conference play, with a 2-0 (or better) record, have gone 28-47 ATS on the road vs. winning opposition, including 9-25 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins.  This is also a strong situation for Oregon State, as it will be playing with rest and revenge, off an upset loss.  Oregon State has dropped each of the past 5 meetings vs. Utah, and falls into a 61.7% ATS revenge system of mine.  Even better:  Oregon State had last week off to rest, and prepare for this game following its upset loss in Pullman, 31-24, against Washington State.  And the Beavers are 28-14 ATS in the regular season when playing with rest.  More good news for Oregon State:  its upset loss has triggered a 70% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home underdogs off an upset road defeat.  Finally, since 1980, the Beavers have cashed 71% off upset conference defeats, while the Utes are a poor 24-39 ATS as a road favorite of less than 11 points, including 1-5 ATS vs. foes off an upset defeat.  Take Oregon State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Texas San Antonio.  The Roadrunners are ranked 20th in the country on the heels of a 7-0 start to the season.  But this will be a difficult spot for them to run their record to 8-0.  The Bulldogs should be in an ornery mood following their upset loss last week at UTEP -- a game in which they only scored 3 points, as a 6.5-point road favorite, and lost 19-3 (failing to cover by 22.5 points).  But home underdogs have covered 60.2% over the last 42 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home underdog was upset in its previous game, and failed to cover the spread by more than 22 points in that defeat.  Louisiana Tech is a solid 19-6 ATS off an upset loss, while the Roadrunners are a wallet-breaking 0-12 ATS as a favorite priced from -6 to -11 points.  Take Louisiana Tech + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over East Carolina.  After starting the season with a loss to cross-state rival, Texas Tech, the Cougars have ripped off five straight wins, and they've covered four of those games.  And the last two both were blowouts on the road, as Houston won by 35 as a 3-point road underdog vs. Tulsa, and then went into New Orleans to trounce Tulane, 40-22, as a 6.5-point favorite.  Houston did have last weekend off to prepare for this game, and that bodes well for Houston here, as rested home favorites, with a .666 (or better) record, have covered 64.7% of conference games over the last 42 years off back to back road wins, in which they covered the spread by 10+ points.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Oklahoma State.  The Cyclones are 4-2 on the season, as they lost to Iowa in Week 2, and Baylor in Week 4.  But they also outyarded Iowa, 339-173, and outyarded Baylor 479-282.  Unfortunately, the Cyclones committed 5 turnovers in those two game combined, which sealed their fate.  The good news for Matt Campbell's men is that they've not turned it over in any of their last two games.  And if that disciplined play holds on Saturday, then they should hand the 6-0 Cowboys their first loss of the season.  We'll lay the points with Iowa State, as it falls into a 97-52 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams, favored by more than 4 points on home or neutral fields against a .500 (or better) conference foe, that own an inferior record than their opponent.  Additionally, the Cowboys fall into negative 25-64, 62-126 and 28-78 systems following their upset win at Texas last week.  Take Iowa State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks over UCLA.  The Bruins return home off a successful stint of road games, as they won at Arizona, 34-16, and also won at Washington, 24-17, to move to 3-1 SU/ATS in Pac-12 play.  Oregon sits a half-game back, as the Ducks are 2-1 SU (but 0-3 ATS) in conference games after downing California, 24-17, in Eugene last Friday.  We'll take the Ducks, as they're 17-6 ATS in Conference road games, if they owned a worse SU/ATS conference record than their opponent.  Additionally, the Bruins are 33% ATS since 1980 in Pac-12 games off back to back SU/ATS conference road wins.  And Oregon also falls into a 258-164 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .800 (or better) teams against foes off a win.  Take the Ducks to blow out UCLA.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets plus the points over Western Michigan.  The Rockets are 3-4 after dropping back to back MAC Conference games to Northern Illinois and Central Michigan.  And Toledo was favored by 13.5 and 5 points, respectively, in those games.  The good news, though, for the Rockets is that they're 17-2 SU and 12-4 ATS off back to back losses, if they weren't an underdog of more than 5 points.  Even better:  Toledo falls into a 65.4% ATS MAC angle, which plays on Mid-American Conference home dogs off back-to-back ATS losses, if they also lost their previous game SU, while their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Rockets to bounce back on Saturday afternoon.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels minus the points over LSU.  The Rebels won last week at Tennessee, 31-26, but their QB, Matt Corral, got banged-up in the process.  It's unclear whether Corral will line up under center this afternoon.  But, regardless, we will lay the points with Lane Kiffin's men.  The Tigers stunned Florida, 49-42, as a double-digit home underdog last week.  Unfortunately, underdogs have only covered 37% over the past 42 years off an upset win as a double-digit home dog the previous week, if matched up against foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Mississippi minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Purdue.  The Badgers come into this game off back to back wins over Illinois and Army, while the Boilermakers upset the then-undefeated Hawkeyes in their previous game.  We'll fade Purdue off that upset win, as they fall into a negative 28-99 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off big upsets.  Even better:  the Badgers have won 14 straight games vs. Purdue, and have covered their last 8 here in West Lafayette, and have also covered 7 straight when not favored by 17+ points.  Take Wisconsin to blow out the Boilers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats over Texas Tech.  The Wildcats have dropped three straight, including a 13-point loss to Iowa State last weekend.  But Kansas State is super 36-20 ATS in conference road games when the line was 7 points or less.  And it's 20-4 ATS in Big 12 games off a double-digit conference loss.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech comes into this game off a 41-14 blowout of Kansas.  But the Red Raiders are an awful 2-12 ATS off an ATS win, if they weren't getting double-digits.  Take the Wildcats on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Army.  The Demon Deacons are 6-0 following their 40-37 victory at Syracuse two weeks ago.  They'll now take on a Black Knights squad which lost to Wisconsin, 20-14, last Saturday.  The extra week of rest will no doubt have served Dave Clawson's men well, given that they utilized that time to prepare for Army's flexbone triple option run game.  We'll lay the points with the rested Demon Deacons against the unrested Black Knights.  For technical support, consider that undefeated, rested teams have gone 130-93 ATS vs. unrested, non-conference foes, if our rested team wasn't getting more than 3 points.  Also, Wake Forest is 9-1 ATS off a win, when playing with rest, while Army is a poor 4-12 ATS when priced as an underdog of +3 to +14 points vs. rested foes.  Take the Demon Deacons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Colorado State.  The Rams come into this game off back to back blowout wins over San Jose (32-14) and New Mexico (36-7), while the Aggies are on an 0-3 ATS losing streak.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Rams minus the short number.  But NCAA home dogs, with a .666 (or better) record, have covered 60.4% of conference games over the past 42 years off 3 point spread defeats.  Take Utah State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in tonight's game between Denver and Cleveland.  These two teams were both upset last Sunday.  Denver had its worst defensive effort of the season, as it gave up 34 to Las Vegas in a 10-point loss.  And Cleveland's defense was even worse, as it was wrecked by Arizona, 37-14, in a 23-point upset home loss.  But off those upset losses, I expect both teams to play much better defense tonight.  Indeed, Denver is 14-3 UNDER its last 17 off an upset loss, while Cleveland is 23-13 UNDER its last 36 off an upset loss.  And matchups between two teams off upset losses, in which they each gave up 28+ points, have gone UNDER the total 77.4% over the past 33 seasons, including a perfect 5-0 UNDER since last season.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Tennessee returns home off back to back road games vs. the Jets and Jaguars, which they split with a loss at New York, and a 37-19 victory at Jacksonville last Sunday.  The Bills also won last week, as they upset the defending AFC champion, Kansas City Chiefs, 38-20, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  But off that huge upset win over the team that knocked it out of last year's playoffs, we will fade Buffalo on the road against Tennessee.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams off 18-point (or greater) upset wins have cashed just 35% on the road vs. foes off a win.  Even worse, teams off upset wins have cashed just 20% on Monday Night Football since 1980 as road favorites vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, home teams have gone 73-38-3 ATS on Monday Night Football, if they were off a road win, and were not laying more than 5 points.  Take the Titans as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys are on a 4-game win streak after winning 3 home games vs. Philadelphia, Carolina, and the New York Giants.  But from Week 3 forward, the Eagles are 1-3, the Panthers are 1-2, and the Giants are 1-2.  So, not exactly "Murderer's Row."  That's not to imply the Cowboys are playing poorly -- they're not.  But the fact that Dallas has rolled up 41, 36 and 44 points over those last three home games should be taken with a boulder of salt.  They'll now travel to Foxborough to take on a New England team which is giving up just 18.4 ppg (again, a far cry from teams like Philadelphia (25.33) and the Giants (27.8)).  We'll grab the points with New England, as teams (like Dallas) off back to back home wins, are 38% ATS in the regular season after scoring more than 30 points in back to back games.  And > .750 NFL teams playing away from home, without the better defense, have cashed just 37%.  Meanwhile, Bill Belichick's men are 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS at home when not favored by 7+ points vs. an .800 (or better) opponent.  Finally, New England also falls into 363-266, 240-147 and 121-57 ATS systems of mine.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals are riding high with a 5-0 record, but have been installed as an underdog against the 3-2 SU/ATS Browns, who lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers, 47-42, last Sunday.  The Browns easily could also be 5-0, as their other loss was to the defending AFC champion Chiefs, 33-29, in Kansas City.  I look for the Browns to rebound big here, as teams off losses, in which they scored 37+ points, have gone 37-13 ATS vs. .300 (or better) foes, including a perfect 12-0 ATS if our 'play-on' team (here, Cleveland) owned an ATS record of .550 (or better).  That bodes well for the Browns here.  As does the fact that they're 5-0 ATS their last five when favored vs. the NFC.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Ravens were my preseason choice (at 16-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl, and they've won three of four nail-biters (along with one blowout vs. Denver) to move to 4-1 on the season.  Also 4-1 is Los Angeles, which has lost to just Dallas in its first five games.  Los Angeles has won and covered its last three, but road teams off back-to-back SU/ATS wins are a poor 69-102 ATS in the regular season vs. .800 (or better) teams.  Additionally, the Ravens are 30-16 ATS at home vs. winning teams when the Ravens were off an ATS loss, and not favored by 3+ points.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors had last weekend off following their 27-24 upset home win on October 2nd vs. Fresno, while Nevada won by 27 here, in Reno, vs. New Mexico State.  This will be Hawaii's 3rd trip to the mainland this season, and they were smashed in the first two:  44-10 by UCLA, and 45-27 by Oregon State.  Over the years, I've loved playing against Hawaii on the mainland in certain situations, and this Saturday's game in Reno fits many of Hawaii's worst point spread roles, including this 100% perfect angle.  Since 1980, Hawaii is 0-16 ATS on the road, when rested, and installed as an underdog of +20 or less points.  Even better:  double-digit underdogs with a .363 (or better) record are a poor 35-73 ATS off an upset win as a double-digit dog, if their opponent was off back to back wins.  Lay the points with Nevada.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes over Arizona State.  We had a huge play on the Sun Devils last Friday, and won big in a 28-10 blowout win over Stanford.  That was ASU's third straight win and cover.  But this hot streak sets them up in a negative 28.4% system of mine which goes against certain teams that are off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Utah also had an impressive breakout performance last Saturday, as it went into Los Angeles, and upset Southern Cal, 42-26, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  And that moved Utah's conference record to 2-0 this season.  So this "battle of unbeatens" will be a key game in the race for the conference championship.  We'll go against the Sun Devils on the road, as Pac-12 Conference teams, with a 3-0 (or better) conference record, have cashed just 17 of 53 road games vs. .500 (or better) conference foes off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons + the points over Boise State.  Air Force is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS after winning (and covering) at home vs. Wyoming last Saturday.  They'll now travel to Boise to take on a 3-3 Broncos squad.  Last week, the Broncos stunned the then-undefeated BYU Cougars, 26-17, as a 6.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we will look for a letdown by the Broncos on Saturday.  Indeed, that upset win was somewhat fortunate, given that BYU outyarded Boise, 413-312, but were doomed by four turnovers.  Last season, the Broncos went into Colorado Springs, and blew out the Falcons, 49-30.  Unfortunately, since 1980, .500 (or worse) teams are a soft 41% ATS off an upset win, when matched up against a revenge-minded foe off a double-digit win.  Additionally, teams off upset wins, as 6-point (or greater) dogs, over unbeaten teams that were 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 42% over the last 40 years vs. .500 (or better) teams.  Take the points with the Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Louisiana Tech.  We played on the Miners two weeks ago, and were rewarded with a 28-21 win and cover vs. Old Dominion.  The Miners are putting a nice season together, as they're 5-1 straight-up.  But they continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers.  They're a home underdog on this Saturday vs. the 2-3 Bulldogs.  And we will happily grab the points with UTEP, as it falls into a 311-208 'momentum' angle of mine which plays on certain home teams with a win percentage greater than .750.  Moreover, home dogs have cashed 60.4% since 1990 if they owned a better record than their opponent, and were off back to back wins.  Take Texas El Paso + the number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Mississippi.  The Volunteers come into this game vs. Mississippi off back to back blowout wins.  They destroyed Missouri, 62-24, in Columbia, and then smashed South Carolina, 45-20, last week, as a 10.5-point home favorite.  Tennessee is now a small home underdog.  And I love playing on home dogs that can score.  Dating back to 1983, underdogs of more than 2 points have cashed 57% at home if they averaged more than 41 points per game.  Ole Miss can also score, as evidenced by its 52-51 victory last week against Arkansas.  But Ole miss is also 1-8-1 ATS its last 10 after scoring 49+ points, if its current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Volunteers + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State.  It's impossible to be worse than the Lobos have been "in Vegas" this season, as they're 0-6 ATS.  But faithful followers know that I've never shied away from playing on bad teams.  And I won't here, as New Mexico falls into a system which has cashed 58% since 1984, which plays on winless ATS teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) ATS record, against foes that didn't fail to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.   And New Mexico also falls into a 59-18 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off 3+ ATS losses, as well as an 81-37 ATS angle of mine which takes certain teams off 5+ ATS losses.  Take the Lobos as a big home underdog.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Texas A&M.  Last week, we played on the Aggies as an 18-point underdog vs. Alabama, and easily got the $$$ with an outright win vs. the defending national champions.  But off that big victory, we will fade the Aggies today away from home.  Indeed, Texas A&M is a horrid 11-26 ATS on the road vs. a .500 (or better) foe following a home victory at College Station.  And it's 1-4 ATS its last five vs. Missouri.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are 14-3 ATS as a home underdog, priced from +7 to +15 points vs. a foe off a SU win.  And, finally, NCAA teams are an ugly 0-8 ATS away from home following a home win over the defending national champions, if they're priced from -8 to -18 points.  Take the home underdog Tigers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Michigan State.  Mel Tucker's Spartans are a spotless 6-0 on the season, and they're 5-0-1 ATS.  But we will fade Michigan State as a road favorite in Bloomington against a rested Hoosiers squad.  Indiana last took the field against the then-undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions, and was shut out, 24-0 (coincidentally, the same score by which Indiana defeated Michigan State in East Lansing last season).  But over the last 42 years, underdogs of +3 (or more) points off shutout home losses have cashed 63.3% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Indeed, Michigan State was in this exact same situation last season following its 24-0 home loss to Indiana, and rebounded to upset Northwestern, 29-20, as a 13.5-point underdog (when Northwestern was 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS).  Take Indiana to pull off the mild upset.  Grab the points with the Hoosiers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs are 5-0 on the season, with ATS wins in each of their last four games.  In contrast, the Spartans are scuffling, with a 3-3 record, but five straight ATS losses in their last five.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Aztecs.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams playing conference games away from home are a soft 67-97 ATS if they're off a win, and 3+ ATS wins, while their foe is off 3+ ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for San Diego State as a huge road favorite tonight.  Nor does the fact that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, are a wallet-busting 29-59 ATS away from home, if they're off back to back ATS wins, and favored by 7+ points against an opponent with a .444 (or better) record.  Take the Spartans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  We played on Philly last week as a road dog at Carolina, and got the cash with an upset win.  They're now a home underdog vs. the defending Super Bowl champs, and we'll grab the points with Philly tonight.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are a horrid 0-13 ATS following a home win, when favored on the road by 7 or less points vs. non-division foes, provided their opponent wasn't off back-to-back losses.  Even better, home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points, off a SU road win, have gone 142-87 ATS vs. foes off a SU home win.  Take Philadelphia + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Navy.  The Tigers enter tonight's game off 3 SU/ATS losses, while Navy has covered the point spread in each of its last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the underdog Midshipmen here, especially given Navy's vaunted road ATS mark over the last 33 seasons.  But consider that NCAA favorites of 3+ points have covered the spread 64% since 1980 off 3+ losses, if they're playing an opponent off 3 ATS wins.  Additionally, Memphis is a terrific 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS as a favorite of 7+ points off back to back losses, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. conference foes.  Take the Tigers to blow out Navy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns + the points over Appalachian State.  The Cajuns are 4-1, and off back to back road wins over Georgia Southern and South Alabama.  They're also a home underdog tonight.  We'll grab the points with Louisiana, as .800 (or better) teams (at Game 6 forward), off back to back wins, have cashed 57.3% since 1980, including a solid 68.5% if their opponent was off a double-digit win, and a double-digit cover.  With Appalachian State, indeed, off a 45-16 blowout of Georgia State (as a 10-point favorite), our 68.5% tightener is satisfied.  Lafayette is also a solid 19-5 ATS since 2010 in Sun Belt Conference games, priced from -1.5 to +9 points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS at home.  Grab the points with the Cajuns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills will enter Arrowhead on quite a roll, as they've scored 35, 43 and 40 points in their last three games -- all blowout wins by more than 21 points.  But that's not necessarily a good thing, as road underdogs are a soft 24-42-2 ATS after 3 SU/ATS wins, in which they scored more than 95 point combined.  And road teams off three SU/ATS wins by 20+ points are a horrid 2-15-1 ATS if they weren't favored by more than 7 points in their current game.  It's been years since the Chiefs have been priced this inexpensive at home (with a healthy Patrick Mahomes), and we will take full advantage.  Indeed, Kansas City is 46-19 ATS at home if it wasn't off a SU/ATS loss, and it wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  Take the Chiefs to blow out Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Arizona.  Last week, the Cardinals stunned the Los Angeles Rams, 37-20, as a road underdog at SoFi Stadium.  But off that upset win, we will fade the unbeaten Cardinals as a home favorite.  Indeed, the Cardinals are a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a home favorite, including 0-7 ATS vs. a division rival.  And they're 8-28 ATS at home vs. a foe not off a point spread win, including 0-10 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss!  Meanwhile, the 49ers are a reliable 37-12 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Finally, the Cardinals fall into a negative 24-62 ATS system of mine which goes against certain home favorites off upset wins, while the 49ers fall into 363-264 and 132-69 ATS angles that play on certain teams with inferior scoring margins than their opponent.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Cleveland Browns/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The Browns held their two previous opponents -- Chicago and Minnesota -- to 6 and 7 points, respectively.  But neither the Bears nor the Vikings will be in the post-season.  Los Angeles, on the other hand, is looking every bit like a Super Bowl contender.  The Chargers' offense has tallied 30 and 28 points its last two games, and will put pressure on the Browns' defense.  Justin Herbert has completed 69% of his passes for 1178 yards and nine TDs.  I also believe Cleveland will find success on the ground behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, as the Chargers rank 29th against the run, and are giving up 140 yards per game, on a horrid 5.26 yards per carry!  For technical support, consider that NFL teams have gone OVER the total 61.1% of the time when the line was greater than 46 points, if they gave up 15 (or less) points combined over the previous two games.  Take the OVER!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia Eagles/Carolina Panthers game.  After giving up just 6 and 17 points in their first two games, the Eagles' defense has been leaky of late, as it's given up 41 and 42 points the past two weeks -- both double-digit losses.  Likewise, Carolina's defense surrendered 36 points last week to Dallas (in a 36-28 loss), after giving up just 7 and 9 its two previous games.  I look for both defenses to return to form on this Sunday, and play much better than in recent weeks.  For technical support, consider that the Eagles have gone 'UNDER' in 56 of 80 games after playing a game where 58+ points were scored.  And NFL games have gone under the total 58% since 1985 if both teams were off a game where more than 60 points was scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos.  After starting the year with an impressive 23-16 win over (arguably) the AFC's most impressive team, the Steelers have stumbled badly, with three consecutive defeats to the Raiders, Bengals and Packers.  And they scored just 17, 10 and 17 points in those three games.  The good news here is that Pittsburgh tends to bounce back at home off back-to-back losses, as they're 37-17 straight-up, 33-21 ATS, and 34-18-2 OVER the total.  Pittsburgh's also 66-40 OVER the total when the line has been less than 40 points.  Likewise, the Broncos also stumbled on offense last week, as they lost 23-7 to Baltimore.  But the Broncos are 14-1-1 OVER the total after losing a game in which less than 33 total points were scored.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New England Patriots/Houston Texans game.  The Texans were shut out last week, 40-0, by the Buffalo Bills.  So, clearly, their offense behind rookie QB Davis Mills is a mess right now.  Of course, the oddsmakers have made their adjustments, and the over/under line for this game is more than 7 points lower than either game each of these teams played last week.  From my perspective, the oddsmakers have over-reacted, and there's significant value in taking the OVER in this game.  For technical support, consider than NFL games have gone OVER the total 65.5% over the last 42 years, if both teams were coming into the game off an UNDER, and both teams had over/under lines more than 6 points greater in their previous game than the current game.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Carolina Panthers.  The Eagles come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, with each of their two previous defeats coming by double-digits.  But I love the Eagles this Sunday afternoon, as teams off 3+ losses have covered 60% vs. winning foes, if our team wasn't getting 4+ points.  And Philly is 39-21 ATS on the road off back to back defeats, including 22-8 ATS when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 4 points.  Take the Eagles.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Nevada.  This will be the 4th time the Aggies have been an underdog of more than points this season.  And they covered the spread in the first three games.  Last week, the Wolf Pack stunned Boise, 41-31, as a road underdog.  Unfortunately, Mountain West home favorites (or PK) have covered just 8 of 36 after an upset road win.  Also, Nevada's covered just 28% since 1980 as favorites off an upset road win.  Grab the points with New Mexico State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Tulsa.  Tulsa was smashed here, at home, by Houston, 45-10, as a 3-point favorite last Friday.  And the Golden Hurricane are once against installed as a home favorite.  Unfortunately, home teams without a winning record have generally not bounced back off double-digit SU (and double-digit ATS) losses, as they've cashed just 38% of conference games over the last 42 years.  That doesn't bode well for the Golden Hurricane on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Tulsa is 11-44 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -15 to +10 points, if they lost their previous game by more than 5 points.  Grab the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Alabama.  We played against the Aggies last Saturday, and got the $$$ with Mississippi State, which upset A&M as a 7-point underdog.  That was the 2nd straight loss for the Aggies, whose impressive 3-0 start is now largely forgotten.  The Aggies, though, are a super 13-1 ATS as home dogs of more than 2 points when playing a .900 (or better) foe.  Meanwhile, defending national champs (like Alabama) are a soft 12-29 ATS when playing on the road without rest, if they covered the spread in each of their two previous games.  Take the Aggies + the points over the Crimson Tide.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders went into Morgantown last week, and upset the Mountaineers, 23-20, as an 8-point underdog.  But off that big win, we'll fade the Red Raiders tonight against a TCU team looking to get back into the win column off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Indeed, NCAA road favorites of 8 or less points, off exactly 2 SU/ATS losses, have cashed 58% of conference games over the past 42 years.  And the Red Raiders are an ugly 2-16 ATS at home, or on neutral fields, off an upset Big 12 Conference win.  Take TCU minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Texas-San Antonio.  The Roadrunners have sprinted out to a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record, after defeating UNLV in San Antonio last Saturday.  But the Roadrunners have been installed as an underdog vs. a 1-3 Western Kentucky squad.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with the undefeated Roadrunners.  But consider that, at Game 5 forward, NCAA road underdogs of more than 3 points off a home win, with a .750 (or better) SU/ATS record, have covered just 15 of 56 vs. conference foes off a point spread loss.  The reality is that Texas-San Antonio's schedule has been a lot softer than that of Western Kentucky, as the Hilltoppers were saddled with games against Army, Indiana and Michigan State.  When Western Kentucky faced an opponent of equal (or lesser) talent this season, it won in blowout fashion (59-21 vs Tennessee-Martin).  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Illinois.  The Illini snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 24-14 win over Charlotte last weekend.  Meanwhile, the Badgers have taken it on the chin the past two weeks, with back to back upset losses by 28 and 21 points.  But I love them to bounce back this Saturday afternoon, as NCAA road favorites off a loss by more than 18 points, have cashed 71.6% since 1981, when favored by more than 2 points against a foe off a double-digit win.  Likewise, road favorites priced from -9 to -16 points are 16-0 ATS off back to back losses, if their opponent is off a win by more than 8 points.  Take Wisky to roll on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles over Miami-Ohio.  Last Saturday, the RedHawks upset Central Michigan, 28-17, in Oxford.  But off that home upset win, we'll fade Miami in Ypsilanti this weekend.  For technical support, consider that Mid-American Conference teams have covered just 2 of their last 21 (and 21 of their last 65) on the road off a home upset win the previous week, if they covered the spread in that victory by 10+ points.  Take Eastern Michigan.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos over Ball State.  Last year, the Cardinals upset Western Michigan, 30-27.  We'll take the Broncos in this revenge role, as Ball State has covered just 31% over the last 21 years when playing a revenge-minded foe, if the Cardinals were not a winning team.  And Western Michigan is 8-3 ATS its last 11 home games, including a perfect 4-0 ATS vs. foes off a win.  The Broncos have been quite impressive this season in rolling out to a 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS record.  Their only loss was a road game at #8-ranked Michigan, while they went into Pittsburgh, and upset a very good Panthers team, 44-41, as a 14-point underdog.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames minus the points over Middle Tennessee.  Very few teams have played as well "in Vegas" as Liberty over the past couple seasons.  The Flames are 13-2 ATS their last 15, and have covered the spread by an average of 7.12 ppg.  Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders have long under-achieved, and have been particularly bad away from home, when not laying 3 points, against an opponent with a winning ATS record, as they've covered just 12 of 41.  Take the Flames to blow out Middle Tenn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Michigan State.  After starting the 2021 campaign with four straight ATS wins, the Knights were blown out last week here, at home, by Ohio State, 52-13, as a 15-point underdog.  But there's not much shame in that.  Off that point spread loss, we'll take Rutgers to rebound on Saturday, as its defense has been stellar outside of last week's game.  Indeed, Rutgers gave up just 275 yards to #8-ranked Michigan, and just 261, 258 and 260 in its three games prior to that.  The 5-0 Spartans, on the other hand, have given up 440, 442, and 560 in their last three games.  Michigan State has covered just 9 of 28 Big 10 conference games vs. foes off a loss by 25+ points.  And it's 8-20 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points, away from home, vs. Big 10 foes.  Take Rutgers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Stanford.  The Sun Devils and Cardinal both pulled off big upsets last weekend.  Arizona State stunned the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl, 42-23, while Stanford shocked #3-ranked Oregon, 31-24, in overtime.  We'll lay the points with Arizona State, as it's 12-0 ATS as a home favorite vs. a conference opponent off an upset win the previous week.  Additionally, the Cardinal fall into negative 85-157, 41-111, and 61-140 ATS systems of mine based on their upset victory over the Ducks.  Take the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over Houston.  The Green Wave come into this game off a 23-point upset loss at the hands of East Carolina last Saturday, while Houston pulled off a 35-point upset at Tulsa.  But off those two disparate results, we'll step in and take the home dog Green Wave.  Indeed, teams off 20-point upset losses have cashed 10 straight vs foes off 20-point upset wins!  That bodes well for Tulane here, tonight.  As does the fact that home underdogs off 14 or less points, off upset conference losses, have cashed 70% over the last 42 years vs. conference foes off upset wins.  Finally, Tulane is 9-1 ATS off a conference defeat, while Houston is an awful 0-10 ATS off a win, if it's matched up against a conference foe off an upset loss.  Take the Green Wave + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Each of these two AFC West division rivals has gone 'under' the total a significant amount of the time when playing a division foe.  To wit:  the Chargers are 80-33-1 UNDER the total when playing at home vs. an AFC West opponent.  And the Raiders are 62-37-1 UNDER the total on the road in division games.   And the 'under' also falls into a 20-1 Totals system of mine, as well as a 67-35 Monday Night Football Totals system.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New Orleans.  New York is 0-3 to start the season.  But I won't pass up taking points from a Saints team which is an ugly 29-60 ATS as a home favorite vs. .500 (or worse) foes off a loss.  Moreover, winless teams are a superb 241-176 on the non-division road since 1980.  And, finally, the Giants are a wallet-fattening 17-0 ATS their last 17 NFC conference road games when they've owned a losing record.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans to go OVER the total.  Both of these teams come into this game off low-scoring games.  The Jets were shutout, 26-0, as a 10-point road underdog in Denver, while Tennessee won, 25-16, as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. the Colts.  New York has played each of its three games under the total, while the Titans have played two of their first three under the total.  And this general paucity of scoring in the games played by these teams thus far has led to the number on this game moving 2 to 3 points down from the opener.  I think this is a severe over-reaction to the fact that the Jets have scored just 20 points this season.  Indeed, New York's first 3 opponents (Denver, Carolina, New England) currently rank #1, #2 and #5 in scoring defense!  The Titans, on the other hand, are giving up a whopping 28 points per game, and rank #25 in scoring defense.  I fully expect the Flyboys to be able to put up some points here, at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  Tennessee has played 7 of its last 8 (and 12 of its last 16) road games over the total, and has surrendered an average of 28.63 ppg in its last eight road games.  And it's 9-0-1 'over' the total its last 10 games off a home win.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners minus the points over Old Dominion.  UTEP fell behind early last week here, at home, to New Mexico, but stormed back for a 20-13 upset victory.  They'll now welcome Conference USA rival, Old Dominion, to El Paso.  And Conference USA teams are a fantastic 76-41 ATS at home off an upset win, if they're playing an opponent not off back to back wins.  Moreover, the Miners fall into a super 69% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset wins.  Take UTEP minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS, while Boston College is 4-0 straight-up.  Clearly, the two teams are going in opposite directions.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Eagles, especially after their impressive win over Missouri last week.  But Boston College falls into a negative 47-74 ATS system of mine which goes against certain undefeated teams against winless ATS foes.  And even though I greatly respect the job that Jeff Hafley is doing in Chestnut Hill, this will be the first time his team is an underdog this season.  For technical support, consider that undefeated underdogs of more than 3 points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a woeful 31.5% ATS since 1985 when matched up against .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take Clemson minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Baylor.  We played on the Bears as a home underdog last Saturday vs. Iowa State, and were rewarded with a 31-29 win, as a 7-point dog.  Baylor is undefeated at 4-0, and once again installed as an underdog - this time in Stillwater vs. the similarly-unbeaten Cowboys.  Unfortunately for the Bears, single-digit Big 12 Conference underdogs have covered just 31% of conference games off an upset win.  Even worse:  undefeated teams are a nasty 12-24 ATS at Oklahoma State.  And, finally, undefeated teams have cashed 69% at home vs. foes off upset home wins where they were at least a touchdown underdog.  Lay the points with Oklahoma State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A&M.  Both of these teams enter Saturday's game in College Station off losses.  Miss State fell at home, 28-25, to LSU, while A&M lost in Arlington to the Arkansas Razorbacks, 20-10.  The Aggies' offense has left a lot to be desired this season.  After losing starter Haynes King to a broken leg earlier this season, the Aggies are trying to make do with backup Zach Calzada.  But he was just 20-for-36 for 151 passing yards vs. Arkansas.  That won't cut it in the rugged SEC Conference.  Miss State is 2-2, but could easily be 4-0 this season.  It lost 31-29 at Memphis, in part due to a blown call by the officials which allowed a Tigers punt return touchdown to stand.  The Bulldogs outyarded Memphis, 468-246 (!), and didn't lose the turnover battle, but somehow lost.  Then last week, Miss State outyarded LSU 486-343, but came away empty.  Texas A&M has covered just 7 of 24 SEC Conference games when favored by 7+ points.  We'll take the Bulldogs as a big road underdog on Saturday night.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over North Carolina State.  The Wolfpack snapped an 8-game losing streak to Clemson, with a 27-21 overtime win as a double-digit underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we will fade NC State in this non-conference game.  Indeed, since 1980, home teams have covered just 33.8% vs. non-conference foes, if they won outright as a double-digit underdog in their previous game.  And if they were off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, then our home teams have only covered 21% (NC State fits this 21% ATS tightener, as well).  Louisiana Tech's QB, Austin Kendall (63-for-104, 837 yds, 7 TDs, 144 QB rating) has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the Bulldogs.  Take LA Tech + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over South Florida.  SMU stunned its metroplex rival, TCU, last Saturday, in Fort Worth, as the Mustangs won by 8, as a 9.5-point underdog.  That moved the record of Sonny Dykes' troops to 4-0 this season.  They're now healthy home favorites against the Bulls, who are 2-2 on the season.   We'll take the homestanding Mustangs, as home favorites of 17+ points, off an upset road win, have cashed 64% since 1980 vs. .500 (or worse) conference foes.  Take SMU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Ole Miss.  Alabama comes into this game off a 63-14 pasting of Southern Mississippi.  I won't step in front of Nick Saban's men here, as his teams are 77-44 ATS when laying between 10 and 29 points.  Even better:  defending National Champs have gone 24-7 ATS in conference games after scoring more than 56 points in their previous game.  Finally, SEC Conference road underdogs of +7 (or more) points are an awful 61-93 ATS against foes off 33+ point victories.  Take Alabama to roll over Ole Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over South Carolina.  Troy was upset last week, 29-16, by Louisiana-Monroe, and will look to bounce back on the road in Columbia against the 2-2 Gamecocks.  Prior to surrendering those 29 points to Monroe, the Trojans had allowed their three previous foes to score just 33 combined.  And that bodes well for Troy here, as .500 (or better) underdogs that allow less than 17.3 ppg have gone 138-92 ATS off an upset loss.  Also, the Trojans are an awesome 7-0 ATS as an underdog off an upset loss, when matched up against .666 (or worse) foes, while South Carolina is 0-8 ATS vs. .666 (or worse) foes off an upset road loss.  And, finally, Troy falls into 220-119 and 91-37 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off SU defeats.  Grab the points with the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Owls are favored by double-digits over the 0-3 Panthers, but fall into an ugly 0-13-1 ATS situation.  Since 2004, Florida Atlantic is 0-13-1 ATS at home vs. losing teams, when favored by less than 12 points.  Even worse:  the Owls come into this game off a blowout, 31-7, loss to Air Force.  But Conference USA favorites of 11 or less points have gone 49-89-4 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference foes.  With the Panthers, indeed, playing with revenge from a 19-point loss last season, we'll grab the double-digits with Florida International.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Kansas State. Lincoln Riley's men will enter Manhattan this afternoon with major revenge, as Kansas State has won the last two years. And the Sooners were favored by 28 and 23.5 points in those two defeats. Never before in the history of my database -- which dates back to 1980 -- has a team lost back to back meetings where it was favored by more than 20 points. We'll step in and play on Oklahoma here, as double-revengers have cashed 55.5 percent if they were upset at home in the previous season. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe.  Dating back to last season, Coastal Carolina has quietly gone 6-0-2 ATS here, at home, in Conway.  Meanwhile, the Warhawks are a wallet-busting 8-15 ATS their last 23 on the road.  Last week, Monroe was at home, and pulled off a stunning upset, 29-16, over Troy, as a 23.5-point dog.  But off that win, we will fade Monroe here, as double-digit underdogs have cashed just 40.2% over the last 42 years vs. winning conference foes, if they were off an upset win the previous week as a two-touchdown underdog.  Take the Chanticleers minus the points.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Cincinnati.  Jack Coan is now listed as 'probable' to play in this match-up between top 10-ranked squads, and we'll grab the points with the homestanding Irish.  Notre Dame has been a very reliable home underdog here, in South Bend, over the years.  And especially when the Irish didn't own a losing record, as they're 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 in that situation.  Even better:  undefeated teams, with a 3-0 (or better) record, have cashed 62 of 100 as home dogs vs. opponents that are also unbeaten, including a perfect 6-0 ATS since Sept 29, 2018.  Take Notre Dame + the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Louisville.  Wake Forest comes into this game off four straight blowout wins (by 20+ points each).  And they've covered the spread by 23.5 and 16.5 their past two games.  I won't step in front of this freight train here, in Winston-Salem, as home teams have covered 60% over the last 42 years in conference games, if they were off back to back 20-point wins, covered the spread by 10+ points in each, and weren't favored by more than 7 points.  Lay the points with Wake Forest.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over the Arkansas Razorbacks, as the Bulldogs fall into several of my best systems, including ones with records of 281-195, 124-59, 96-34 and 93-24 ATS.  Sam Pittman's Razorbacks upset Texas A&M last Saturday in Arlington (for their 4th straight win and cover), but will face a much stiffer test on Saturday in Athens.  The #2-ranked Bulldogs have given up just 23 points and 278 rushing yards (2.29 ypr) in their four games this season, including a total of 2 yards rushing vs. #25-ranked Clemson.  That doesn't bode well for an Arkansas offense which wants to run the football 70% of the time.  The Razorbacks are averaging just 21 pass attempts per game (compared to 47 runs).  Georgia, on the other hand, has a more balanced offense, and throws the ball 43% of the time.  The Bulldogs whitewashed Vanderbilt, 62-0, in Nashville, last week.  And NCAA teams off 50-point road wins have covered 74% of conference games over the last 42 years.  Meanwhile, NCAA teams (like Arkansas) off back-to-back wins, and 4 ATS wins have covered just 33% as underdogs of 14+ points since 1980.  Arkansas is also 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS as a .500 (or better) team getting 17+ points.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Georgia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Duke.  North Carolina began its season as the 10th-ranked team in the country, but has stumbled to a 2-2 record.  Its only wins have com at home, where it defeated Georgia State, 59-17, and Virginia, 59-39.  On the road, the Heels are 0-2, with losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  So, the good news for UNC fans is that the Tar Heels are back in Chapel Hill on Saturday to take on the Duke Blue Devils, who are riding a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  Unfortunately for Duke, over the last 35 years, underdogs of more than 19 points, off 3 ATS wins, have covered just 40.9% of the time.  Additionally, North Carolina is 20-6 ATS at home off a road loss by 17+ points.  Lay the points with the Tar Heels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Bengals went into the Steel City, and upset Pittsburgh, 24-10, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, the Bengals are a horrid 0-11 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points off a division win by more than 6 points.  The Jaguars are off to an 0-3 start in the Urban Meyer era, and each loss has been by double-digits.  But we'll step in and take the Jags as a big road underdog in this Nationally Televised game.  Over the years, the league's worst teams have stepped up when the spotlight was on, as teams with a win percentage less than .200 are 15-4 ATS as underdogs of more than 7 points on Monday/Thursday night games.  Even better:  winless road underdogs are 212-152-6 ATS in non-division games, including 16-5 ATS if they were off three straight double-digit defeats.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Buccaneers come into this game off a blowout, 48-25 win over Atlanta.  That was also the 10th straight win by the Buccaneers dating back to last season.  But defending Super Bowl champs have struggled off blowout wins by 20+ points, and especially on the road vs. non-division foes, as they've covered just 34.3% over the last 42 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Tom Brady & Co. on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that NFL road favorites, off back to back wins, in which they scored more than 30 points, have covered just 48 of 125 vs. non-division foes.  Take the Rams as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Raiders come into this game off back-to-back upset wins to start the season.  And they've been installed as a home favorite over Miami, which was shutout last week by Buffalo, 35-0.  We'll play on the Dolphins to bounce back in this game, as .500 (or better) single-digit road underdogs are 91-59 ATS in regular season, non-division games since 1980 after failing to cover the spread by more than 14 points in their previous game.  Even better:  the Raiders have been huge money-burners as favorites, as they're 20-39-1 ATS their last 60 as chalk, including 10-33-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a winning ATS record.  The Dolphins are 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS off a loss.  And they're 17-6 ATS their last 23 games as an underdog.  Take Miami + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Denver Broncos.  This is the only match-up this week which pits a 2-0 SU/ATS team vs. an 0-2 SU/ATS team.  Many bettors might rush to the side of the Broncos, given that they will be playing their home opener off two impressive road wins to start the season.  But 2-0 NFL teams have only covered 28% as home favorites over the last 42 years vs. foes off to an 0-2 SU/ATS start!  And home favorites playing their home opener after starting the season with 2 (or more) road games have also been horrible, as they've gone 8-23-2 ATS since 2005 (and 39-61-3 ATS since 1980).  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.