At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Buffalo Bills/Chicago Bears game.  The Bills offense is certainly moribund right now.  They've scored just 6 and 5 points in their last two games.  And their 87-point total through eight games is the lowest in franchise history.  Of course, the over/under line reflects Buffalo's ineptitude.  But we're now at the point where there's value in betting on a relatively high-scoring game.  Indeed, over the last 31 seasons, NFL teams that scored less than 12 points combined over their two previous games have gone 'over' the total 97-62.  Take the 'over' in the Bears/Bills game.  NFL Total of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Oregon St.  The Beavers pulled off a stunning win in overtime last week, when it roared back from a 31-3 deficit to defeat Colorado, 41-34.  Oregon State was a 26.5-point underdog in that game, so that upset ranked as one of the 31 biggest upsets of the past 39 seasons.  Generally speaking, I'll look to go against such teams in their next game, as they often will suffer letdowns following such massive victories.  And such teams have been especially weak against .500 (or better) opponents, as they covered just 22% of those games.  It's true that the Trojans come into this game on a 2-game losing streak.  But USC is 7-2 ATS since 2001 off back to back losses.  This will be a blowout.  Lay the points with USC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Last Friday, Louisiana Tech went into Florida Atlantic, and upset the Owls, 21-13, as a 3.5-point underdog.  Can it pull off back to back road upsets?  It's not likely, as double-digit road underdogs have cashed just 38% since 1980 vs. non-conference foes, if they upset a conference foe on the road in their previous game.  Lay the points with Mississippi State.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are undefeated, with an 8-0 record, while Northwestern is just 5-3.  But both teams are equal in Las Vegas, as each has a 4-4 ATS record.  We'll go against Notre Dame, as undefeated teams, with a record of 8-0 (or better), have cashed just 50 of 131 on the road vs. opponents that owned a .500 (or better) ATS win percentage.  Also, Northwestern's a solid 21-8 ATS as a home underdog priced from +7 to +13.5 points.  Take the Wildcats.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes + the points over Arizona.  The Buffaloes were inexplicably upset by Oregon State last Saturday, 41-34, in overtime, after leading the game by a score of 31-3!  And that was Colorado's 3rd straight loss, overall.  Certainly, last week's defeat was a gut-wrenching game, as it matched the largest blown lead in school history.  But I fully expect Mike MacIntyre's men to rebound on Friday.  For technical support, consider that road underdogs of +6 points or less have cashed 64% over the last 38 years off 3+ losses, if they were upset in their previous game.  Additionally, Arizona's a horrid 0-10 ATS since 1991 as a favorite of more than 2 points off an upset win.  Take the Buffaloes.  Perfect 10 Club play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Panthers upset the Duke Blue Devils, 54-45, last week, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  And they'll now try to make it two upsets in a row when they take on the 23rd-ranked Cavaliers, who are on a 3-game win streak.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, road teams off an upset win as a home dog have cashed just 34% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road team wasn't getting more than 10 points.  Take Virginia to blow out Pitt.  NCAA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers to go over the total.  Both of these teams have had defensive issues this season.  Oakland is giving up 31.1 ppg, while the Niners are surrendering 29.5.  Since 1980, in NFL games with lines of 45 or more points, the OVER has cashed 25 of 33 games if both teams had defenses that gave up 29+ points.  Take the over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo.  Ball State was blown out by 38 points (as a 10-point underdog) in its last game.  And it lost by 22 points (as a 2.5-point dog) in its game two weeks ago.  Thus, over its two previous games, it failed to cover the spread by a combined 47.5 points.  But the Cardinals fall into a 64-32 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses by 19+ points.  And Ball State is also 55-26 ATS on the road since Oct. 29, 2005, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +16 to +19.5 points.  Take Ball State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over New England.  One of the more reliable long-term NFL situations has been to play on double-digit home underdogs against opponents off straight-up wins.  Since 1980, they've gone 87-56-2 ATS.  And though there's nothing wrong with such a record, we can improve it by filtering out double-digit underdogs that were non-competitive in their two previous games (failing to cover each by more than 7+ points).  With that filter in place, our 87-56-2 record zooms to 75-38-2 ATS.  And, yes, it's certainly true that Tom Brady's Patriots have been the standard-bearer in the NFL for the last 18 years.  But New England's been poor lately in the role of a big favorite away from home, as they've cashed just 3 of their last 13 when laying 9 or more points (and just 1 of 9 if it wasn't off a loss).  Take Buffalo.  Monday Night Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over the LA Rams.  The Packers had last week off to rest and prepare for the 7-0 Rams.  Immediately before their bye week, the Packers survived a tough game, at home, vs. San Francisco, and won 33-30, as an 8.5-point favorite.  The Packers are just 2-4 ATS this season, but with Aaron Rodgers as their starting QB, they've been extremely profitable.  In his career, the Packers are 94-66 ATS with him under center, including a fantastic 36-20 ATS off a point spread loss (and 9-2 ATS as an underdog).  And Rodgers is also 10-0 ATS if the Packers had a losing ATS record on the season and were playing an opponent off a win.  Take Green Bay.  Perfect 10 Club Play! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Indianapolis/Oakland game.  The Indianapolis Colts' last four games have produced 71, 62, 76 and 42 points.  And they've gone 'over' the total by an average of 15.38 points per game.  Likewise, Oakland's last four games have gone 'over' the total by an average of 2.75 ppg.  Also, the Colts have gone 'over' 28-15-1 in their last 44 road games, while Oakland's gone 'over' 24-12-2 its last 38 home games.  This will be very high-scoring.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  This is the 2nd meeting this season between these AFC West division rivals.  In the first meeting, the Broncos actually had a lead after three quarters, but KC came back to win, 27-23 (and covered the closing line of -3.5).  Impressively, the Chiefs are the 21st NFL team since 1980 to not lose against the spread in any of its first six games.  But what's remarkable about KC's ATS win streak thus far is that they are doing it in spite of a very leaky defense.  Indeed, of the 21 teams that were undefeated ATS through their first six games, the Chiefs have -- by far  -- the worst defense.  KC is giving up 26 points per game...but none of the other 20 clubs had a defense which gave up more than 21.16 ppg!  This doesn't bode well for the Chiefs going forward.  And especially not in their games, like this particular one, where they are favored by a large amount.  For technical support, consider that NFL favorites of -8 or more points, that give up 23.67 (or more) points per game, are an awful 35-77-1 ATS at Game 6 forward since 1980.  Moreover, AFC West division teams playing with same-season revenge have gone 113-71-5 ATS since 1980 vs. division rivals that did not have a losing ATS record, provided our revenger was not favored by more than 6 points.  Denver did everything BUT win in the first meeting, back on October 1st.  However, I expect the Broncos to not let this game slip away this time.  Take the points. AFC West Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants over the Washington Redskins.  The Redskins come into the Meadowlands off back to back upset wins, at home, vs. Carolina and Dallas.  And they’ve now been installed as a road favorite vs. a Giants team on a 4-game losing streak.  Unfortunately for Washington, teams off back to back upset wins are an awful 52-77 ATS since 1980 vs. opponents off back to back losses.  Likewise, teams off back to back SU/ATS wins, as well as an upset win in their previous game, are 28-47 ATS vs. opponents off 4 or more defeats.  Finally, New York is a solid 37-21 ATS at home vs. division rivals off a point spread win.  Take the Giants.  NFL Roadkill Play.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Florida International.  Last week, the Hilltoppers suffered, perhaps, the most excruciating loss of the season (a game which really needed to be SEEN to be believed).  Indeed, the Hilltoppers actually led 34-27 with 1:37 left in regulation.  But Old Dominion scored a tying TD with nine seconds left, and then a WINNING Field Goal with no time (literally) on the clock, as they game had seemingly ended three plays before.  But because of rules violations on three successive plays (including a game-winning FG attempt by Western Kentucky), there were three untimed downs after the clock had expired.  And on the 3rd untimed down, it was Florida International which kicked the game-winner.  That was the Hilltoppers' 3rd straight loss and, for some, it might be a crushing loss.  But this is actually a perfect spot for Mike Sanford's team to bounce back, as it's homecoming night for Western Kentucky, so the campus will be excited, and the team will be motivated.   Indeed, coach Sanford was asked if he felt his team was snake-bit after last week's loss, and he said, 'no,' that he 'doesn't believe in karma' but rather 'hard work' which his players continue to exude.  Now, it's true that the Panthers are 3-0 in Conference USA, while the Hilltoppers are 0-3 within the Conference.  But, as discussed above, the Hilltoppers were less than two minutes away from a victory (and point spread cover) last week.  And, for the season, the Hilltoppers are 4-3 ATS, with several close losses (four of their six losses were by a mere three points, so they certainly have not played badly).  One of the things I love to do, at Conference Game 4 forward, is play on home teams winless in Conference play, if they were matched up against an opponent which was unbeaten in conference play, and the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 10 points or less.  Over the last 38 seasons, our home teams have covered 80% of the time.  Moreover, Western Kentucky is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of +6 or less points since November 2009.  Take the Hilltoppers.  CUSA Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack minus the points over Syracuse.  The Wolfpack were blown out by Clemson, 41-7, last week, which was their first loss of the season.  However, I look for them to bounce back and get a road victory this evening.  Not only have coach Dave Doreen's Wolfpack won each of the last four meetings vs. Syracuse, but they're also 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 as a road favorite.  And, going back to Doreen's stint as head coach of Northern Illinois, his teams have gone 12-2-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 3-0-1 ATS off a loss.  Finally, winning road favorites have gone 152-112 ATS since 1993 off a conference loss by 10+ points, if they also failed to cover the spread by 12+ points in that loss.  Take NC State.  NCAA Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson.  The Tigers enter this contest on a 7-game win streak, including 63-3 and 41-7 blowout wins over their last two foes (Wake Forest, NC State).  Unfortunately, NCAA favorites (or PK) off back to back stellar defensive performances, where they held their two opponents to less than 10 points, are a poor 29-62-1 ATS away from home since 1982 vs. winning teams off a SU/ATS win.  That's one reason I love the Seminoles.  Another is that Willie Taggart's teams (Western Kentucky, South Florida, Oregon, Florida State) have excelled as underdogs (or as a small favorite of -3 or less points) with him as the head coach, including 31-14-1 ATS their last 46 vs. conference foes.  Take Florida State.  NCAA High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Owls were upset, 31-7, last Saturday on the road by the Marshall Thundering Herd.  They've now been installed as a home favorite vs. LA Tech.  Unfortunately, home favorites of 7 or less points are an awful 108-179 ATS off an upset road loss.  Even worse:  Florida Atlantic is a poor 27-44 ATS at home, including 1-8 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -7 points.  Take Louisiana Tech.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles + the points over Appalachian St.  The Mountaineers are 5-1, and have not lost since their opening day, overtime loss, at Penn State.  Today, they'll take on the 6-1 Eagles, who routed New Mexico St. last weekend, 48-31.  For the season, the Eagles are outscoring their foes, on average, by a score of 31.0 to 19.3.  But at home, those numbers improve to 36.7 ppg, on offense, and just 13.2 ppg, on defense.  Additionally, Georgia Southern falls into a very good 88-28 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams, at home, off a win.  And, finally, since 1980, NCAA underdogs of more than 2 points are 239-167 ATS off back to back wins, if they average more than 29.5 points per game on offense.  Take Georgia Southern.  NCAA Roadkill play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over West Virginia.  The Mountaineers come into tonight's game off a 30-14 loss to Iowa State, which was WVU's first defeat of the season (after starting with 5 straight wins).  One of the things I love to do when betting College Football games is to go against certain teams off their initial loss of the season, if they had a 5-0 (or better) record prior to the defeat.  These teams, more often than not, fail to bounce back from their first loss of the season.  And Baylor is a play out of a super 97-47 ATS system of mine which goes against such teams (like WVU) off their first loss.  Even worse for the Mountaineers:  they have a history of not rebounding off upset losses, as they're 1-9 ATS off an upset loss, generally, and also 2-15 ATS their last 17 off an upset loss by 10+ points.  Take Baylor. Thursday Night Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars come into tonight's game off a blowout win, at home, vs. Alabama State.  Unfortunately, the Jaguars are an awful 1-9 ATS off a point spread win.  And they're just 17-32 ATS in Conference games.  Meanwhile, Troy State is a solid 15-6 ATS its last 21 road games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, early on Sunday morning, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  This game will be played in London, England.  The Chargers are 4-2 on the season, including back to back wins (and covers) in their last two games.  Going in the opposite direction are the Titans, who are 3-3, but off back to back SU/ATS losses.  So, the Titans will be looking to rebound.  And they'll surely be in an ornery mood since they were shutout, 21-0, last week by Baltimore.  The good news, though, for Tennessee fans is that, since 1980, it's been profitable to bet on teams off shutout losses, and especially when priced from +2.5 to +9.5 in non-division games.  Indeed, those teams are 37-8 ATS their last 45!  That's one reason to favor Tennessee in this game.  Another is that the Chargers are a poor 16% ATS away from home since 1980 off back to back SU/ATS wins, if they're playing a non-division foe off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Titans + the points on Sunday morning.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Ohio State.  The Ohio State Buckeyes are ranked 2nd in the country with a 7-0 record.  But they've been ice-cold in Las Vegas, as they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games.  In contrast, Purdue has been paying off its bettors, as the Boilermakers have covered each of their last four games, and have won their last three straight-up.  Even more impressive is the fact that the Boilermakers have covered the spread by double-digits in each of their last three games.  And home teams have gone 147-90 ATS in conference games, if they weren't favored by 6 or more points, and they're off back to back wins, in which they covered the spread by double-digits.  Take Purdue + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Oregon.  We played on Oregon as a home underdog vs. Washington, and got the $$$$ when Oregon won outright, 30-27, in overtime.  But off that upset win, we will fade Oregon against the once-beaten (5-1) Cougars.  A key factor for me in this game is that Washington State had last week off, so it will be well-rested.  And it's awfully difficult to win back to back games vs. excellent teams (and especially if one's opponent is well rested).  Indeed, since 1980, rested .750 (or better) NCAA Teams have cashed 67.7% since 1980 against foes off an upset win as a home underdog vs. another .750 (or better) foe.  Take Washington State minus the points.  Pac-12 Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles minus the points over Texas San Antonio.  The Golden Eagles laid an egg at North Texas last week, as they scored just seven points in a 30-7 defeat.  And that was Southern Miss's second straight loss (it also lost to SEC power Auburn, 24-13, two weeks ago).  But after being installed as an underdog each of the past two weeks, Southern Miss will no doubt be thrilled to play the Roadrunners, here, in Hattiesburg on Saturday evening.  After all, Southern Miss is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS as double-digit favorites this season.  Even better:  over the last 39 seasons, in conference games, NCAA home favorites of 16+ points have covered 68% off conference defeats by 16+ points, if they also lost two games back.  The Golden Eagles are also 60% ATS as double-digit favorites off a loss over the past 39 seasons.  Take Southern Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Florida St.  Both of these two ACC Conference rivals are 3-3 this season.  And each comes into this afternoon's game off straight-up losses.  But the nature of those defeats could not be more different.  Florida State fell by a mere point, 28-27, to Miami-Fla, while Wake Forest was walloped, 63-3, by Clemson.  I look for Wake Forest to bounce back off that 60-point loss, as road underdogs have cashed 63.8% over the last 39 seasons if they lost by more than 40 points in their previous game, and were playing an opponent also off a loss.  This system is already 3-0 this season, including a 45-20 win last week by Louisiana Monroe +6.5 over Coastal Carolina following Monroe's 70-21 blowout loss at the hands of Ole Miss.  The Demon Deacons will bounce back in a similar fashion.  Take Wake Forest.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Western Michigan.  The Chippewas are off 3 straight losses, and are winless in Mid-American Conference play.  Moreover, they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last two games.  Meanwhile, the Broncos come into this afternoon's game with an undefeated Mid-American Conference record, and have won five straight, overall.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Broncos against the ice-cold Chippewas.  But consider that single-digit Mid-American Conference home underdogs, off back-to-back ATS losses, have covered 72.9% since November 1999, if they were off a straight-up loss, and their opponent was off a straight-up win.  Grab the points with Central Michigan.  MAC Game of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Utah State.  On the surface, these two teams are headed in opposite directions.  The Aggies are 5-1, after winning each of their last five games.  Even more impressive is the fact that the Aggies have covered the point spread in all six of their games.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 2-5, on the heels of three straight losses.  And they've failed to cover their last six games.  Of course, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on a team off 6 ATS wins vs. an opponent off 6 ATS losses.  But as Lee Corso might say, "Not so fast."  For example, consider that teams off 5+ ATS defeats have gone 60-36 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins!  And teams off 6+ ATS wins have covered just six of 20 on the road vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Wyoming.

At 12:30, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers upset Miami-Fla last week, 16-13, as a 7-point home underdog.  We had a play on Virginia, so we were not surprised by the result.  Virginia is now 4-2 on the season, and will look for a second straight upset, here, against the 6-1 Blue Devils.  But I look for a letdown on Tobacco Road by Virginia, as .666 (or better) teams have cashed just 20% on the road vs. winning conference foes, if our road team was off an upset win, as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, over another conference foe.  Take Duke.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma.  The Horned Frogs enter this game off an upset loss to Texas Tech (as a 7.5-point favorite), while Oklahoma also enters off an upset loss to Texas.  The Horned Frogs have been installed as a sizable home underdog, notwithstanding the fact that their defense is more than 7 points better than Oklahoma's defense.  And one of the things I love to do is play on .500 (or better) underdogs of +6.5 (or more) points, off an upset loss, that own a defense which gives up at least 6.5 points less than their opponent's defense. Such teams have covered 73.1% since 1982.  Even better:  TCU plays with revenge from two losses suffered at the hands of the Sooners last season (including a loss in the Big 12 Conference Championship game).  But College teams playing at home with revenge from an NCAA post-season defeat have cashed a solid 60%.  Grab the points with TCU.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over Colorado State.  Boise comes into this game off rare (for it) back to back ATS losses.  But the Broncos are 143-105 ATS their last 248.  And they're 18-11 ATS off back to back ATS losses.  Finally, they've won seven straight meetings vs. the Rams, and have gone 5-2 ATS in those games.  Lay the points with Boise.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over Arizona.  The Broncos have lost their last four games, and have been installed as a small favorite on the road vs. Arizona.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the ice-cold Broncos.  But consider that NFL teams off back to back losses have gone 32-6 straight-up and 28-9-1 ATS (including 10-0-1 ATS since 2014) on Thursdays when installed as a favorite (or PK).  Moreover, Denver falls into terrific 211-118 and 306-210 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in non-division games.  Take the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs enter this game with the conference's best record, at 5-0.  And they're also 5-0 ATS.  Unfortunately, they're likely to leave Foxborough with their first loss.  Key for me is the fact that the Patriots have gone 36-12 ATS vs. foes with a superior won/loss percentage.  Even better:  New England plays with revenge from a 42-27 upset loss to the Chiefs last season.  But the Patriots are 14-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge from an 8+ point upset loss the previous season.  Take New England.  Perfect 10 Club Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Baltimore.  This is a horrible scheduling spot for the Ravens, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game.  And one of the things I love to do is play against a team in its 3rd straight road game, and especially if it's matched up against an opponent with a winning record.  Since 1980, our road teams are a dismal 53-91 ATS in this situation.  That bodes well for Tennessee as the home underdog, here.   As does the fact that Tennessee was upset as a road favorite last week, given that home underdogs, off an upset loss as a road favorite the previous week, have gone 79-53 ATS since 1980.  Take the Titans

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Broncos were upset on the road last week by the New York Jets, and are now on a 3-game losing streak (and a 4-game ATS losing streak).  But I love them to bounce back against the NFL's best team.  Indeed, home underdogs of +6 or more points have cashed 67.8% over the last 38 years off an upset road loss.  And Denver is 30-17-3 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 23-11-1 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Finally, undefeated teams (like the Rams) have cashed just 36.8% when laying more than 6 points away from home.  Take Denver + the points.  NFL Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.  And don't miss my Red-Hot Winners, as we are 20-4 our last 24 selections.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/Atlanta game. Both of these teams have been involved in very high-scoring games of late, which has helped to move this total to a very high number. The problem for both teams is primarily on defense. The Falcons are off three straight losses, and have surrendered 121 points over their last 3 games, while Tampa is off two straight defeats, and has given up 78 points over those two games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 'over,' but faithful followers know I'm a contrarian at heart. Indeed, NFL teams that gave up 121+ points over their previous three games have gone 'under' the 70.9% over the past 38 years. Last season, for example, the Buffalo Bills gave up 54, 47 and 34 in their previous three games before holding the Chiefs to 10 points, in a 16-10 win (easily going under the 47.5 point total). Likewise, last season, the Broncos had given up 29, 51 and 41 in their previous three games before holding the Bengals to 20, and also going 'under' the total. I look for a similar result, here. Also, Dan Quinn's Falcons have gone 'under' the total in 19 of 29 games off a loss, while the Buccaneers have gone 'under' 31-13-1 off a loss if the line was 46+ points. Take the 'under.' NFL Division Total of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Game of the Month, as we're on a 20-4 Run.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Cincy Bengals.  The Steelers leveled their record at 2-2-1 last week when they blew out the Atlanta Falcons, 41-17, while Cincy won its second straight game -- 27-17 at home vs. Miami -- to move to 4-1 this season.  This series has been completely dominated by Pittsburgh.  Indeed, since 1991, the Steelers are 42-14 straight-up, and 36-18-2 ATS, including 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS since Dec. 2015.  And even though Pittsburgh is regarded as having one of the stronger home field in the league, it's actually been better on the road (20-7-2 ATS) vs. the Bengals, than at home (16-11 ATS).  Finally, the Steelers fall into a 60.8% ATS "contrarian" system of mine which plays on certain road teams with a worse win percentage than their opponent, provided they weren't getting more than three points.  Take the Steelers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Buffalo/Houston game.  The Texans' quarterback, Deshaun Watson has been upgraded to 'probable,' which was all I needed to pull the trigger on this game to go 'over' the total.  Last year, Deshaun Watson made six starts before he suffered a season-ending injury, and the Texans averaged 34.67 points per game.  Not surprisingly, the 'over' was 5-1.  This season, in five starts, the Texans have gone 'over' in two of the five.  Thus, Houston has gone 'over' in seven of his 10 starts.  But it must be noted that, in two of the three 'unders,' the games came extremely close to going 'over,' missing by 2.5 and 4 points.  Overall, his 10 starts have sailed 'over' the total by an AVERAGE of 11.7 ppg.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Cleveland.  The Cleveland Browns were 0-16 last season, and no doubt are improved this season.  But I question whether they have improved enough to be favored over a team like the L.A. Chargers.  Indeed, for my money, the Chargers are flying a bit under the radar.  They're 3-2 on the year, but consider that their 2 losses were to the league's two undefeated teams (Kansas City + the LA Rams).  And the Chargers actually have out-yarded four of their five opponents this season.  Even though they lost to the Chiefs, they actually out-yarded them 541 to 362, but were done in by two turnovers.  For technical support, consider that teams that didn't win 2 (or more) games the previous season have gone 10-22 ATS as a favorite over the past 28 seasons.  Moreover, Cleveland's 10-19-1 ATS its last 30 as a home favorite.  Take the Chargers as a road underdog.  NFL Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Carolina.  We played against both of these teams last week, and got the cash with the Giants as a touchdown underdog at Carolina, and also with the Saints as a touchdown favorite vs. Washington.  New Orleans blew out Washington, 43-19, this past Monday.  But that defeat sets up our play, here, as home underdogs (or PK) are 72-49 after losing a game in which they gave up 40+ points if they're playing a foe off a straight-up win.  Take the Redskins to bounce back at home this afternoon. NFC Game of the Week. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Miami-Fla.  Virginia had last weekend off to rest and prepare for this game following its blowout, 35-21 loss at NC State. And that was Virginia's first game this season in which it failed to cover the point spread.  I love the Cavaliers to bounce back on Saturday, as it's been installed as a home underdog.  And Virginia's performed much better over the years as a home dog (12-5 Last 17) than as a home favorite (5-16-3 ATS its last 24), so that bodes well for it in this game.  As does the fact that the underdog is 12-2 in this series' last 14 meetings.  Indeed, last year, Virginia was a 20.5-point underdog and actually led by 14 points in the 2nd half.  But Miami stormed back late to win by 16, 44-28 (though it failed to cover).  Finally, single-digit ACC home underdogs off a straight-up loss are 106-53 ATS vs. .500 (or better) conference foes.  Take Virginia.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Iowa State.  The 6th-ranked Mountaineers are 5-0 straight-up, and 4-1 ATS, and have been installed as a road favorite in this game.  I love the Mountaineers to blow out the Cyclones, as Iowa State comes into this game off an outright win as a double-digit underdog at Oklahoma State last week.  And, since 1980, teams off SU wins as a double-digit underdog the previous week have cashed just 40.9% when matched up against an opponent off a win.  This system is already a perfect 3-0 this season, and one of its wins was, coincidentally, in West Virginia's last road game, at Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders had blown out Oklahoma State, 41-17, as a 14.5-point underdog the previous week, and then came home to face WVU.  Unfortunately, they suffered a letdown, and the Mountaineers won (and covered) in a 42-34 victory.  Same result should occur here, in Ames, Iowa.  Take West Virginia.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin Cajuns minus the points over New Mexico State.  We played on the Aggies last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Liberty Flames, 49-41, as a 4-point home underdog.  However, I often like to go against teams off upset wins, as they are susceptible to letdowns.  And that, I believe, will happen here, as New Mexico State falls into a negative 22-72 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams, on the road, off upset wins.  Meanwhile, Lafayette checks in off a 42-27 blowout of Texas State, and falls into a 136-67 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit wins.  Finally, the Aggies are an awful 7-43 straight-up and 18-32 ATS as a road underdog in non-conference games.  Lay the points with the Cajuns.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over New Mexico. Last week, we played on the Lobos in their big upset win, as an 8-point underdog, at UNLV. The Lobos won that game, 50-14, so they covered by 44 points. Off that win, the Lobos have been installed as a PK against the Rams. But teams off upset wins, in which they covered by 39+ points, have cashed just 19.2% since 1980 away from home when PK'em or favored. And the Lobos, themselves, are 0-4 ATS as a road favorite (or PK) off an upset win. Take Colorado St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights are currently riding an 18-game win streak, and are ranked among the Top 10 in the Country, with a 5-0 record this season.  But this is going to be a difficult game to win.  One factor going against them is the fact that they’re on the road after playing their four previous games at home.  And Central Florida covered the spread in each of their last three games vs. Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh and SMU.  Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 38 of 107 games following three straight ATS wins at home, including 8-27 their last 35 when they owned a win percentage greater than .850.   Another factor on the side of Memphis is the fact that it will be playing with revenge from a 62-55 loss to the Knights in last season’s AAC Conference Title game.  And winning teams playing with revenge from a post-season defeat have cashed 62.8% since 1990 when installed as an underdog.  Take Memphis + the points.  AAC Conference Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Washington. The Huskies have rebounded nicely off their opening week loss to Auburn, and are now 5-1 on the season. But this is a major step-up in class from the types of opponents (e.g., Arizona St., BYU, UCLA) that Washington has seen over the last few weeks. Indeed, but for a senseless, last-minute collapse vs. Stanford, the Ducks would be 5-0, and ranked, like Washington, among the Top 10. So, this is a huge game, as it will go a long way toward determining the winner of the Pac-12 North Division. The Ducks have a big advantage in that they had last week off to rest and prepare for this game. And Oregon falls into a super 70-22, 76% ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested teams in Conference games, as well as a 101-48 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded squads (Oregon lost 38-3 last season, so is playing with revenge). Finally, in games between winning teams (that were also both winning teams last season), home teams playing with revenge from a 33-point (or worse) defeat have gone 57-29 ATS since 1998, including 10-2 ATS when playing with rest. Take the Ducks.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Georgia. We played on Florida last week in a home dog role vs. LSU, and got the $$$ when the Gators upset the previously-unbeaten Tigers, 27-19. This week, however, I look for LSU to turn the tables on the undefeated Bulldogs. Indeed, winning teams have cashed 60.0% ATS as conference home underdogs off an upset conference loss on the road the previous week since 1980. Finally, LSU is 15-4-1 as an underdog of +3 or more points off an upset loss, including 9-1 ATS their last 10. Take LSU.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Texas. The Longhorns have reeled off 5 straight wins following their upset loss at Maryland to start the 2018 season. Last week, Texas' victim was Oklahoma, which entered the game undefeated, with a 5-0 record. But Texas upset the Sooners, as a 7-point underdog. And now they'll go for their sixth straight win, at home. vs. the 4-2 Bears. Let's grab the points with the Bears as winning, double-digit underdogs have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. conference foes off an upset conference win. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Florida. We played on the Florida Gators last week in their upset win, at home, vs. the then-undefeated LSU Tigers. However, off that upset win, I look for a letdown this Saturday in Nashville. Indeed, one of the things I love to do is go against college football favorites away from home that upset a previously undefeated foe, if they're now matched up against a .500 (or better) opponent coming off a loss. Since 1982, such teams have covered just 25.4 percent of the time. And, yes, it's true that Florida has dominated this series, including winning the last 13 straight-up here in Nashville. But the Commodores are 12-5 ATS when playing with revenge vs. opponents off an upset win. Take Vanderbilt. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Air Force.  We played on SDSU last week as a huge underdog at Boise State, and were rewarded with a 19-13 upset win.  Some may look for a letdown on Friday night, but not me.  Indeed, winning home favorites of -7+ points, off outright wins as 8-point (or greater) road underdogs the previous week, have cashed 18 in a row vs. losing teams!  Meanwhile, Air Force is a horrid 11-24 ATS away from home vs. conference foes, including 1-8 ATS its last nine.  Lay the points with San Diego State.  Perfect 10 Club.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the New York Giants.  The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles were upset, 23-21, at home last Sunday by the Vikings.  And that was their second straight loss, overall.  But those two defeats set up our play tonight, as defending champs have cashed 60% over the last 37 seasons off back to back losses, including 85% ATS on the road if they entered with a losing record.  The Eagles are 2-3, and know that they have to win tonight, if they are to have any hope of securing a Top 2 Conference record, and the all-important bye in the first round of the playoffs which comes with it.  The Giants are an awful 3-10 ATS their last 13 games as a home underdog of +4 or less points.  Take Philly.  NFL High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Washington.  The New Orleans Saints were expected to be one of the NFL's best teams this season, but did get off to a slow start, as they failed to cover the spread in their first two games -- both at home, by the way -- including a straight-up loss to Tampa Bay, as a 10-point favorite.  But then the Saints bounced back with impressive road wins at Atlanta, and at the New York Giants.  Now, they will try to cash a ticket in front of their home faithful, and they will welcome a Redskins team which upset Green Bay, 31-17, in its last game.   I like the Saints here, as Monday Night home favorites, off back to back road games, are 57-32-3 ATS, including 25-7 ATS if their win percentage was .700 or better.  Likewise, Monday Night home teams, off a SU/ATS win, with a winning record on the season, have gone 67-28 ATS vs. non-division foes.  And, finally, the Redskins have had very little success on Monday Night Football, as they've gone 16-36-1 ATS since 1980, including 2-15 ATS if they covered their previous game by more than 11 points.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always.....Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our NFL Total of the Month is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles Chargers/Oakland Raiders game.  This season, the Oakland Raiders' games have averaged 55 points per game (24.25 offense; 30.75 defense), while the Chargers' games have averaged 57.75 points (27.75 offense; 30 defense).  The knee-jerk reaction, then, might be to play the 'over' in this contest, but consider that games with Over/Under lines greater than 41 points, between two teams that each average 22.8 ppg, have gone 'under' the total 194 of 337 games, if one or both of the teams have gone 'over' the total in each of their three previous games, including a perfect 5-0 'under' last season.  The 'under' has gone 24-6-1 the last 31 times the Raiders have visited the Chargers.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have won the last five games in this series, but that win streak should end this afternoon.  Indeed, this is a horrid scheduling spot for Baltimore.  Last week, it went into Pittsburgh, and upset its division rival, 26-14, as a 3-point underdog.  Now, it has to play a second straight road game, and also against a division rival.  Unfortunately, NFL teams favored against a division foe are an awful 69-96-5 ATS off an upset win on the road vs. a division foe, including 34-57 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Cleveland.  NFL Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Liberty.  The Aggies had last week off following their road win at UTEP two weeks ago.  Meanwhile, the Flames are 2-2 this season with an upset win in their opener vs. Old Dominion, and a 52-43 road upset win at the New Mexico Lobos last weekend.  The Flames were a 7-point underdog last week, and one of the things I love to do is go against .500 (or worse) teams in back-to-back road games, if they won as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and were playing a rested opponent.  Since 1980, our road teams have cashed just 37%.  Take New Mexico State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over Rice.  The Roadrunners have yet to cash a ticket in Las Vegas this season, but it's not because they've been playing exceptionally poorly.  Rather, their games were mostly point spread coin-flips that just happened to result in losses.  Indeed, the Roadrunners failed to cover their last four games by 1, 3, 3.5 and 0.5 points (an average of 2 points per game).  So, while some will stay away from the Roadrunners for their lack of point spread success, I'm not concerned.  Meanwhile, the Rice Owls have been installed as a small favorite, even though they were underdogs of +25, +17, +13.5 and +28 points in their four games vs. Division 1 foes this season.  And teams that were favored (or PK) at home vs. conference foes off a win, after being double-digit underdogs in each of their three previous game, have cashed just 37% the past 38 years.  Take the Roadrunners.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Owls lost a heartbreaker last week when Middle Tennessee scored a touchdown (and a subsequent 2-point conversion) on a 4th-and-goal play with less than a minute left in the game.  That lowered the Owls' road record this season to 0-3, but it returns home this weekend, where it is undefeated on the season (with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman).  Here, Florida Atlantic will welcome Old Dominion, which is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this season, with a negative 15.67 scoring margin, and a negative 15.5 point spread differential.  That doesn't bode well for Old Dominion.  And neither does the fact that Conference USA favorites of -8.5 (or more) points are an awesome 31-10 ATS off an upset loss.  Finally, Florida Atlantic falls into 71-29 and 81-32 ATS systems of mine that go against certain conference foes with a losing record.  Take the Owls.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over UNLV.  Last week, the Lobos were upset, 52-43, at home by the Liberty Flames.  So, they'll look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon in their Mountain West Conference opener.  Since 1980, road underdogs off an upset loss the previous week have covered 67.8% in their conference openers.  Both of these teams are saddled with injuries at the quarterback position.  UNLV, though, should suffer more by losing Armani Rogers, than will New Mexico for its injuries.  The Rebels' top QB has excelled this season, with 857 combined yards and 12 TDs (369 passing yards, 488 rushing yards). He'll be replaced by sophomore Max Gilliam, who doesn't have Rogers' explosive speed to make big plays.  In contrast, New Mexico's Sheriron Jones might be the Lobos' 3rd string QB, but he was great last week in relief.  The Lobos were down 42-10 at the half to Liberty, but he threw for 312 yards and four TDs in slightly more than 30 minutes of action to bring the Lobos back in an eventual 9-point loss.  New Mexico has also cashed 75% over the last 38 years off an upset home loss.  Take the Lobos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over LSU.  I love playing on home underdogs with great defenses.  For the season, Florida has held its opponents to just 14 points per game.  And home underdogs, at Game 6 forward, that have a defense which doesn't give up more than 14 ppg have gone 45-22 ATS vs. undefeated teams.  That's one reason I favor the Gators.  Another is that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record have cashed just 64 of 159 vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Take Florida.  NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Akron.  The Red Hawks have covered 12 of 16 conference road games, including a 38-23 blowout win at Bowling Green two weeks ago.  Last Saturday, though, Miami lost a 1-point game, at home, to Western Michigan.  But I love the Red Hawks to bounce back on the road on Saturday, as road teams have cashed 65.3% in Mid American Conference games off a single-digit home loss the previous week.  Take Miami-Ohio + the points.  Underdog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State.  The Aztecs have won three straight, and had last weekend off to prepare for this big Mountain West game at Boise State.  Last season, Boise went 7-1 inside the Conference and won the title game.  San Diego State was 6-2, including a 31-14 upset loss, at home.  So, this is a big revenge game for the Aztecs.  Since 1999, rested Mountain West conference teams have cashed 75.8% away from home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting 12+ points.  That bodes well for San Diego St.  Also, it's true that Boise has been generally very strong against the spread over the years.  But the reality is that it has beat up on the really bad teams (e.g., 58-35 ATS vs. losing teams), or teams playing poorly (e.g., 51-21 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss), while it has done comparatively worse vs. better teams.  Indeed, Boise has gone 0-12 ATS the last 4 seasons when favored vs. winning teams off a win.  Take the Aztecs.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland.  The Wolves came back from a 17-0 deficit at Northwestern last week, and eked out a 3-point win.  Last week's performance will keep a lot of bettors away from laying double-digits this week with Michigan.  Indeed, the current number, as of this writing, has come down from the opener.  Generally speaking, it's been profitable to back double-digit favorites that failed to cover the spread by 10+ points as a double digit favorite the previous week, if they were now  playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win (which Maryland is).  Since 1980, such double-digit favorites have cashed 57%.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Michigan.  NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Western Michigan.  The Eagles lost a tough game in overtime last week, at home, vs. Northern Illinois.  That lowered EMU's Mid-American Conference record to 0-2 on the season.  But I love the Eagles to bounce back on Saturday, as NCAA Underdogs of +3 or more points, off an upset conference loss, and an 0-2 conference record, have cashed 61% since 1980.  And, although there's nothing wrong with 61%, we can increase our system to 70% if we don't go against any team playing with revenge.  In this series, Eastern Michigan has lost the last four meetings.  The revenger is 13-7 ATS in this series, and the revenger has also cashed 61% of Mid-American Conference games the past 11 years if it was off a home upset loss. Finally, Eastern Michigan falls into 53-15, 84-48 and 54-21 ATS systems that play on certain teams off losses.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Mid American Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincy Bearcats minus the points over Tulane.  The Green Wave shocked the Memphis Tigers, 40-24, last week as a 14.5-point home underdog to move their record to 2-3 on the season.  Unfortunately for Tulane, losing teams rarely pull off two big upsets in a row, and especially not when they're playing on the road against really good teams.  Here, Tulane is tasked with handing the Bearcats their first defeat of the season.  Cincy is 5-0 straight-up (and 4-1 ATS), including wins over UCLA, Miami-Ohio, Ohio U. and UConn.  And, since 1980, underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread just 25% of the time on the road vs. .850 (or better) foes, if they were off an upset win as a 13-point (or greater) underdog.  Take Cincinnati.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas.  We played on Oklahoma last week, and were rewarded with a 66-33 victory over Baylor.  And we also played against Texas, and got the cash with Kansas State, which covered as an 8.5-point underdog.  Once again, we will play on Oklahoma and against Texas.  The Sooners are averaging a whopping 48.6 ppg, and fall into a super NCAA regular season 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any single-digit favorite (or PK) off a SU/ATS win, in which they scored 60+ points, if they are playing a at home, or on a neutral field.  Since 1980, this angle has cashed 72%.  Take Oklahoma to blow out the Longhorns.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Illinois.  Illinois has started the season 2-2 straight-up, and 2-2 ATS.  Yet this will be its first road game of the season, as it had the huge benefit of opening with four straight home games.  I don't like playing on road teams this late in the season, and especially not when installed as a favorite and/or they don't have a winning record.  Indeed, since 1980, road favorites, with a .500 (or worse) record, have cashed just 33% of their conference games, if it was Game 5 forward, and also their first road game of the season.  Even worse for Illinois:  it's been an unreliable favorite, priced from -3 to -10.5 points, with an 18-38 ATS record since 2001.  Take Rutgers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Tulsa.  The Cougars exploded for 70 points last week, and have scored an average of 52.25 ppg this season.  As faithful followers know, I love playing on teams that can score.  And home favorites (or PK), off a win in which they scored 50+ points, have gone 572-426-15 ATS since 1980.  Houston is 35-20 ATS off a win, while Tulsa is 35-63 ATS off back to back losses.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Georgia State.  Last week, the Georgia State Panthers upset Louisiana-Monroe, 46-14, as a 5.5-point home underdog.  But that was the first time (in four games) that the Panthers covered the point spread vs. a Division 1 foe this season.  And its upset win has set it up in a negative, 39-103 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road underdogs off upset wins.  Meanwhile, Troy State has won (and covered) each of its last four games, including a 45-21 blowout of Coastal Carolina last Saturday.  Troy St. has cashed 67% since 2001 vs. foes off a win that had a losing ATS record.  And double-digit underdogs, with a losing SU/ATS record, off an upset win, that covered the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game have cashed just 37.9% since 1980.  Take Troy to blow out Georgia State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs have been the biggest surprise so far this season, as they're 3-0, and have scored 38, 42 and 38 points in their first three contests.  KC has also covered the point spread by an average of 9.33 ppg (while Denver has failed to cover by an average of -4 ppg).  But such an offensive stretch of games typically leads to a poor performance.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off back to back SU/ATS wins, in which they scored more than 30 points in each victory, have covered just 79 of 188 games vs. foes off SU/ATS losses, including 0-6 ATS since 2005 on Monday Night Football.  Moreover, the Broncos are 30-15-2 ATS as a home underdog (or PK) since 1981, and also 18-3-1 ATS at home vs. foes with a relative pointspread differential of +8.33 or more points, including 9-0 ATS their last nine when not laying 3 or more points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Seattle/Arizona game.  The Seattle Seahawks have played their last two games 'under' the total, while Arizona's gone 'under' in each of its last three games.  But we will run the other way, and look for a relatively high-scoring game on Sunday.  Indeed, Seattle has gone 'over' the total EIGHT STRAIGHT times off back to back Unders, while Arizona had gone 'over' the total in seven of its last eight (and 16 of its last 21) games after going 'under' in its last three games.  That's one reason, I like the 'over' in this game.  Another is that the 'over' falls into a Totals System of mine which has cashed 114 of 174 since 1980.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Texans are 0-3 straight-up and ATS this season.  But Indianapolis isn't much better, as it's won just once this season.  And one of the things I love to do is play on winless SU/ATS teams, at Game 4 forward, on the road, as underdogs (or PK) vs. losing teams.  Our winless teams have covered 65.5% since 1980 in this situation, so that bodes very well for Houston on Sunday.  Moreover, Houston lost last week, at home, as a 6.5-point favorite.  And road underdogs (or PK) off an upset home loss, as a 6.5 point (or bigger) favorite, have covered 58% over the last 38 years.  Take Houston. NFL Division Game of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Buffalo.  Last week, the Bills pulled off the biggest upset in 23 years, as they won outright as a 16.5-point underdog at Minnesota.  The last team to achieve such a victory was Washington, back in 1995, when it upset Dallas, 24-17, as a 17.5-point dog.  But what was most impressive wasn't that Buffalo won, it was that it won by 21 points.  Unfortunately, I don't think it will win back-to-back games.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off upset wins as double-digit road underdogs have gone 56-80 ATS in their next game, including 17-33 ATS if they were playing back-to-back road games.  And the Packers have gone 47-25 ATS at home with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback, including 14-2 ATS vs. opponents off a road win.  Take Green Bay.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  The Dolphins have sprinted out to a 3-0 start this season, while New England is lagging behind with a 1-2 record. But I believe the Dolphins will come back down to earth on Sunday. Indeed, since 2002, there have been 15 undefeated teams, with a record of 3-0 or better that have been installed as an underdog of +5 or more points.  Those 15 teams have gone 1-14 straight-up, and 5-9-1 ATS.  Also, the Patriots have gone 8-0 straight-up, and 7-1 ATS since November 2002 when they were off back to back losses. Finally, home teams have cashed 37 of 54 off upset losses on the road, if their opponent was off three SU/ATS wins.  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Detroit Lions.  Matt Patricia's Lions upset his former team -- the New England Patriots -- as a 7-point underdog last Sunday night.  However, teams that pull off such big upsets rarely win back to back games in the underdog role.  In fact, since 1980, road underdogs have cashed just 42% off a home underdog outright win as a 7-point (or bigger) dog.  And Detroit's a poor 28-56-3 ATS on the road off a win.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  This is a rematch of last year's game, when the Nittany Lions also entered it undefeated, but were handed their first loss, 39-38, by the Buckeyes.  This season, the stakes are just as high, as both teams are unbeaten after four games.  After squeaking by Appalachian State in its opener, Penn State has demolished its last three opponents.  It's won its last three games by a combined 177-40, and has covered the spread by an average of 22.16 ppg.  In contrast, the Buckeyes, who have won their last three games by a combined 141-37, have only had a point spread differential of + 6.5 ppg in their last three.  Unfortunately, for Ohio State, teams playing away from home have gone 0-15 SU/ATS against a revenge-minded foe which scored 122+ points in its two previous games, if our road team didn't score 100+ points in its two previous games.  Even worse for the Buckeyes:  home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points, that average more than 29.5 ppg on offense, off back-to-back wins, have gone 236-164 ATS.  Over the last 3 seasons, Penn State is 13-1 ATS off back-to-back wins, and has covered by an average of 10.66 ppg.  Take the Nittany Lions.  Big 10 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Owls are 2-2 this year, with 2 home wins and 2 road losses. This will be the Owls' 3rd road game of the season. However, in their first two road games they played Oklahoma (currently ranked #6) and Central Florida (currently ranked #13). This road game will be much easier, as Middle Tennessee is unranked, and has nowhere near the talent level of those two other schools. The Owls have been installed as a small favorite in this game. And since November 12, 2016, Florida Atlantic has had a sharp dichotomy in how its performed as a favorite or an underdog. Indeed, the Owls are 14-0 straight-up (9-4-1 ATS) as a favorite, compared to 0-7 straight-up (1-6 ATS) as an underdog. Take the Owls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over Texas El Paso. On the surface, it might look difficult to play on Texas San Antonio, given that it's 0-4 ATS this season. But the Roadrunners fall into a 65% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses. Meanwhile, UTEP has been the worst team in College Football since last season. It's now lost its last 16 games, straight-up, and is 2-23 SU and 6-17-2 ATS its last 25 lined games. Take the Roadrunners minus the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Florida. Last week, Mississippi State was upset, 28-7, as a double-digit favorite at Kentucky, while Florida won, 47-21, as a 4.5-point favorite at Tennessee. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Gators as a touchdown underdog, given that it covered by more than 21 points, while Mississippi State failed to cover last week by 31 points. However, underdogs of 7 or more points off a cover by 21 or more points have cashed just 38% over the last 30 years vs. opponents off a point spread loss by 21 or more points. That's one reason I favor the Bulldogs. Another is that teams off an upset conference loss by 18 or more points, have covered just 24 of 78 conference games since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up and against the spread win. This will be a rout. Lay the points with the Bulldogs. SEC Conference Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Northern Illinois. The Eagles have lost 10 straight games in this series, but have been installed as the favorite. And I love them to finally break through with a win vs. the Huskies, as they fall into a 43-16 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favored teams playing with revenge. Even better: the Eagles have continued to "pay off" in Vegas this season, as they're 3-1 ATS this year, and 20-8 ATS dating back to November 27, 2015 (including 12-2 ATS off a straight-up loss). This will also be the Eagles' first home game after three straight road games. In their only other home game this season, they won 51-17, as a 22.5-point favorite vs. Monmouth. They didn't find the same success away from home, as they went 1-2 SU (but 2-1 ATS). However, I expect them to blow out Northern Illinois, which is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five games away from home. Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Baylor. The Sooners have started this season perfectly, as they're 4-0. But they have failed to cover the point spread for their last three straight games. They'll try to get back into the win column "in Vegas" vs. Baylor this Saturday. Baylor comes into Norman off a 26-7 win over Kansas last week. And we'll lay the points with the Sooners, as undefeated teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record, off three ATS losses, have covered 60% since 1980 vs. foes off a win. Take Oklahoma.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over the Texas Longhorns. Last week, the Longhorns upset TCU, 31-16, as a 2.5-point home underdog. But off that win, we will fade the Longhorns at Kansas State. This will actually be the Longhorns first true road game, played on an opponent's home field, this season. And Texas falls into negative 11-41 and 7-29 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams, off upset wins, playing on the road vs. conference foes. Additionally, Kansas State is an awesome 27-6 ATS in conference games off a loss by 20 or more points. Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have cashed just 42% as road favorites off an upset win since 1980. Take the Wildcats + the points. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over South Alabama. Appy State exploded for 72 points last week, and has covered each of its first three games this season. The Mountaineers are averaging 51.67 points this season, and I love playing on teams that score a lot of points. Indeed, since 1980, NCAA teams have covered the spread 60% in Game 4, if they averaged 50+ points in their first three games, including 71% if they were favored by 25 points or more. And double-digit favorites, after scoring 70+ points in a home win which they covered by 10+ points, have gone 30-11 ATS since 1980. It's true that South Alabama covered a big number at Memphis last week when it was a 31.5-point dog, and only lost by 17. But the Jaguars are a awful 1-12 ATS their last 13 off a point spread win, including 0-8 ATS as an underdog. Take Appalachian State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers upset Louisiana-Lafayette, 30-28, on the road last week, as a 3-point underdog. And they also won and covered at Campbell the previous week. Unfortunately, they now are tasked with playing their third straight road game. And teams off back-to-back SU/ATS road wins, off an upset win, have covered just 37% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game. Lay the points with Troy State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Colorado.  On the surface, the Buffaloes look to be the much stronger team.  After all, the Buffaloes are 3-0, while Chip Kelly's UCLA Bruins are 0-3.  But they've played vastly different schedules, in terms of strength of opponent.  Colorado has played Colorado St, which is 1-4 SU and 1-3 ATS; Nebraska, which is 0-3 SU and ATS; and New Hampshire, which is a division II team, and also 0-3 SU.  In contrast, UCLA has played Cincinnati, which is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS; #6-ranked Oklahoma, which is 4-0; and Fresno St., which is 2-1 SU and ATS.  Thus, Colorado's opponents are a combined 1-10 straight-up, while UCLA's previous foes have a current, combined record of 10-1.  One of my favorite NCAA systems goes against Colorado in this game.  That angle is 73-44 ATS, and goes against certain undefeated teams against foes off an ATS loss.  Take UCLA.  NCAA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over Los Angeles.  The Rams have been the league's best team thus far, but they will be given a stiff test tonight by the Minnesota Vikings.  And the Vikes will no doubt be in an ornery mood after laying an egg last week, at home, vs. the Buffalo Bills.  Indeed, that 21-point loss to Buffalo was the most shocking NFL result in decades, as Minnesota was a 16.5-point favorite.  And no greater NFL favorite had been upset in the last 23 years.  We'll grab the points with Minnesota, as single-digit underdogs have cashed 67.1% in the regular season vs. non-division foes after failing to cover the spread by 26+ points.  Minnesota's also won and covered each of the last five meetings in this series, including a 24-7 blowout last year.  Take the Vikings.  NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over North Carolina.  We played on the Tar Heels last week, and were rewarded with an outright upset win (38-35) by N. Carolina over Pitt.  The Heels now have to travel down to Miami to battle the #16-ranked Hurricanes, who won, 31-17, but failed to cover as a 26-point favorite last week.  That relatively-narrow win by Miami sets up the 'Canes in a 84-37 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that failed to cover by 10+ points their previous game.  Additionally, North Carolina falls into a negative 29-65 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off a win that are playing poor defense (UNC gives up 33.33 ppg).  Finally, in this series, road teams that won their previous game are 0-8 ATS since 2007.  Take Miami-Fla.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Chicago Bears/Arizona Cardinals game.  The Chicago Bears have scored 23 and 24 points in their first two games, while Arizona has given up 24 and 34 in its first two.  Arizona ranks among the bottom 7 teams in defensive efficiency, so I have no doubt the Bears are going to be able to move the ball into the end zone.  Arizona also should bounce back on offense after its shutout loss.  After all, that shutout was against the Rams, who own the league's very best scoring defense, and who were widely projected going into the season to have the #1 defense this year.  And it also was in Arizona's first road game of the year, while this game is at home.  Indeed, since 1980, teams that were shut out in their first road game of the season have rebounded to score, on average, 19.93 points per game, if that next game was at home.  Finally, teams (like Arizona) off back-to-back unders to start the season tend to go 'over' the total in Week 3, including 82-51 since 1980 if the line was less than 40 points, and 26-12 (regardless of the O/U line) the last five seasons.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the LA Rams.  The Rams were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, at 10-1 odds.  And, so far, so good, as they're 2-0, and have the league's #1-ranked scoring defense, and also rank first in overall efficiency and scoring margin.  This week, they'll try to move to 3-0, but will be tasked with a much more difficult opponent than they saw in their first two games.  In Weeks 1 and 2, the Rams faced two below-average teams in the Raiders and Cardinals.  Now, they'll face the Chargers, who are scoring 29.5 points per game, and who rank among the Top 3 in offensive efficiency, and among the Top 10 in overall efficiency.  In this battle between offense and defense, we'll grab the points, as NFL road underdogs (or PK) are 16-0 ATS since 2006, at Game 3 forward, if they score 27.7 points per game, and their foe gives up 15 or less points per game.  Take the Chargers.  NFL Rivalry Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Indianapolis. We played on the Colts last week, and were rewarded with a 21-9 upset win over Washington by Indy. Can Indy make it two upsets in a row? Unfortunately, it's not likely, as road teams off upset wins have only cashed 37% since 1980 against an opponent coming off an upset loss on the road. Moreover, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 43-30, 58.9% ATS off a road upset loss since 1980. With Philly off an upset loss at Tampa Bay last week, we'll lay the points with the Eagles on Sunday. NFL Roadkill Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Atlanta. The Saints enter this game with a 1-1 record, but have yet to cover the point spread. However, they are an underdog here, compared to being a double-digit favorite in each of their first two games. We'll take New Orleans + the points, as underdogs (or PK) have cashed 73% over the past 38 years off back to back ATS losses as double-digit favorites. Additionally, New Orleans falls into 41-21 and 97-49 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off ATS losses. Finally, New Orleans is 38-27 ATS as an underdog, while Atlanta is a money-burning 19-31 ATS as a favorite. Take the Saints. NFL Division Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Air Force. The Falcons have won the last three meetings in this series, but I love Utah State to get revenge on Saturday night. Utah State is 3-0 ATS this season, and comes into this game off back to back blowout wins, in which Utah State scored 60 and 73 points! For the season, Utah State has scored a whopping 164 points (54.67 ppg). I love offensive-minded College teams, and it's been very profitable to play on favorites of -30 points or less that scored 150+ points over their previous three games. Indeed, since 1990, they've cashed 67.1% at home in the regular season when not favored by more than 30 points if they were playing a non-winning opponent. Even better: if our team was also playing with revenge, then our system moves to 77% ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS its last seven. Take the Aggies. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Army. The Black Knights are 2-1 this season after winning back-to-back home games over Liberty and Hawaii. Now, they'll hit the road to play the #5-ranked Oklahoma Sooners, who are 3-0 this season. Army has had its troubles on the road over the last eight years. This season, it was blown out by the Duke Blue Devils, 34-14. And Army is 8-31 straight-up, and 13-25-1 ATS its last 39 on the road. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 10-2 ATS their last 12 at home. And they fall into 49-15, 64-27 and 55-18 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off wins. Take Oklahoma minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over LSU. Last week, the Tigers shocked Auburn as a double-digit underdog, and won 22-21. But off that big upset win, we will fade LSU as a big favorite vs. Louisiana Tech (which is also undefeated this season). Indeed, home teams have cashed just 28% in the regular season since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off a win, if our home team won outright as a double-digit road dog their previous game! Take Louisiana Tech. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State. The Wildcats are 3-0 this season, including an impressive 27-16 victory at Florida, which snapped a 31-game losing streak to the Gators. Now, the Wildcats will attempt to move to 2-0 in SEC Conference play by avenging a 38-point loss to the Bulldogs last season. They've been installed as a double-digit home underdog. And we'll grab the points, as double-digit home underdogs off a win, with a .666 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 57% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a conference opponent. Take Kentucky. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Texas A&M. The Tide have run roughshod over their first three opponents, with wins by 37 (Louisville), 50 (Arkansas State) and 55 (Mississippi) points. And with those blowouts, the Tide has covered the point spread by an average of 20.5 points per game. I look for Alabama to make it four in a row on Saturday, as NCAA Football teams off 3 SU/ATS wins, that scored 50+ points in each of those three games, have cashed 65.7% in the regular season since 1980. Lay the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Virginia. The Cardinals come into this game off three straight ATS losses, while Virginia comes in off three straight ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Cavaliers, but winless ATS teams (at Game 4 forward) actually cover the spread more often than not! And Louisville falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winless ATS teams. Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino will start redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham this week after the young QB was impressive as a back-up in Louisville's last two games (both wins). The Cards have scored on eight of Cunningham's 12 drives, and has been the most effective rusher (183 yards on 33 carries) this season. In contrast, the erstwhile starter, Jawon Pass, did not lead a drive that ended in points in either of the last two games. This will no doubt be a positive move for Louisville's offense, which has averaged just 5.02 yards per play this season. Take the Cardinals on Saturday.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Pittsburgh. UNC has dominated this series since Pittsburgh joined the ACC Conference, with five straight wins since 2013 (4-1 ATS). I look for that dominance to continue today, as Pitt falls into a negative 6-24 ATS system of mine following its upset win over Georgia Tech last week. Additionally, the Tar Heels fall into 75-20 and 90-32 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams in conference games off losses. Finally, Pitt's cashed just 25% as conference road favorites over the past 38 years off an upset win, while North Carolina is 10-1 ATS as home/neutral field underdogs vs. foes off an upset win the previous week. Take North Carolina.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Georgia.  The Tigers have rolled to an impressive 3-0 record to start the season, and have scored 40+ points in each of their three victories.  Now, they'll face the #3-ranked Bulldogs, who are also 3-0 this season.  These two teams met last season, and Missouri lost, 53-28, in Athens.  But that was the last time the Tigers lost a regular season game.  Since then, they've reeled off nine straight wins.  Don't be surprised if Mizzou pulls off the shocker in Columbia on Saturday afternoon, as NCAA Football teams have cashed 67.05% since 1980 off three straight games where they scored more than 38 points, if they were not playing on the road, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  And if our team was also playing with revenge against a conference foe, then our 67% system zooms to 78%.  Take Missouri + the points.  SEC Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Akron. The Cyclones are 0-2 this year following double-digit losses to Iowa and Oklahoma. But ISU was an underdog in each of those two games; they're going 'down in class,' and favored by double-digits here. Since 1980, Game 3 favorites off back to back losses as underdogs, have covered 80% vs. foes off back to back wins! And that's the situation here, as Akron comes in off wins over Morgan State and Northwestern. Even worse for the Zips: they were a 21-point underdog last week, but won, 39-34. However, teams off back to back wins are an awful 19-41 ATS if they won outright as an 18-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game. Take Iowa State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Ohio. Last week, the Bearcats drilled Alabama A&M, 63-7, and moved to 3-0 on the season. And it was also the second straight game the Bearcats didn't give up 10 points to their opponent. For the season, Cincy's defense is giving up just eight points per game. And College Football single-digit home favorites (or PK) have cashed 61.5% over the last 38 seasons after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous game. And our angle zooms to 89% ATS if our team also owns a defense that surrenders 8 points or less per game! Lay the points with the Bearcats. NCAA Football High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.