At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Denver/Kansas City game.  Last week, in a Thursday game, the Kansas City Chiefs lost a heartbreaker to the Oakland Raiders, 31-30.  The Chiefs were winning, 30-24, but succumbed on the game's final play, a 2-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr to Michael Crabtree.  That was Kansas City's 2nd straight upset loss, as Pittsburgh stunned it, 19-13, here at Arrowhead 15 days ago.  So, the Chiefs are now 5-2 on the season.  Likewise, the Broncos also suffered their 2nd straight upset defeat, as they lost, 21-0, at the Chargers last weekend.  I expect a high-scoring game tonight, as .700 (or better) teams have gone 'over' the total 65.5% over the past 28 years, if they're off an upset loss, and scored 28+ points in that defeat.  Also, these two teams met twice last season, and both games went 'over' the total, by 17 and 5 points, respectively.  And since 2001, 11 of the 16 meetings here in Kansas City have gone 'over.'  Look for this game to sail 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Pittsburgh.   This Sunday night matchup features two teams with Playoff aspirations.  The Detroit Lions are 3-3, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-2.  And I certainly have all the confidence in the Steelers, as they were my preseason pick (at 12-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl.  But this is a great spot to go against them as a road favorite at Detroit.  The Lions do come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses, but gained an advantage by having last week off to rest, and re-group.  And rested underdogs off a loss have cashed over 57% vs. unrested foes off a win since 1991.  Likewise, in matchups between non-losing teams, it's been extremely profitable (67.5%) over the years to take a team off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins, so that also bodes well for Jim Caldwell's crew on Sunday.  But the clincher for me is that Detroit has covered the pointspread by an average of 4.5 ppg this season, while the Steelers have failed to cover by an average of 0.85 ppg.  And home underdogs off a SU/ATS loss have cashed a staggering 63% of the time over the past 38 years if they also owned an average pointspread differential of +4.29 (or better).  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over the Buffalo Bills, as Oakland falls into 145-67, 23-0 and 63-18 ATS systems of mine, based on various season statistics.  The Raiders are sitting on a losing, 3-4 record, in no small part due to an injury suffered by QB Derek Carr earlier this season.  But Carr is healthy, and back under center now.  And he led the Raiders to a thrilling, last-second win last Thursday vs. division rival, Kansas City.  Oakland still has much work to do if it is to get back into the Playoff picture, so it needs to go into Buffalo and get the upset win.  I believe it will, as Oakland is 28-17-1 ATS its last 46 as road underdogs, while Buffalo is a wallet-busting 7-21 ATS at home off a win, including 1-9 ATS vs. non-winning teams.  Take the points with Oakland.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Colts were blown out, 27-0, at home by Jacksonville, while Cincy lost, 29-14, at Pittsburgh.  That 27-0 defeat, though, has triggered my very best "Blowout Bounce-back" system, which is 138-61 ATS since 1980 -- and 5-0 already this season, including a win two weeks ago on the Cardinals over the Bucs after Arizona was blown out by 27 in Philly the previous week.  For the season, the Colts are 2-5, and are certainly in the league's lower tier so long as QB Andrew Luck remains sidelined.  But they generally rebounc off losses, as they're 3-1 ATS already this season off a loss, and 29-9 ATS off their last 38 defeats (including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting more than 6 points)!  Finally, NFL teams also tend to react well to being shutout at home in their previous games, as they're 57-36-2 ATS in that situation since 1980, including 33-9 ATS vs. non-division foes if our team isn't getting 13+ points.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  We played on the Browns last week, as a home underdog vs. Tennessee, and got the cash when Cleveland fell, 12-9, in overtime, as a 6-point dog.  This week, the Browns have been installed as an even bigger underdog vs. the Vikings, in this early game played in London, England.  In the NFL, it's extremely dangerous to lay this many points away from home.  Indeed, since 1995, NFL underdogs of +9 or more points have covered 61% of the time (107-69 ATS) at home, or on neutral fields, including 26-16 ATS if our underdog is (like Cleveland) winless on the season.  That doesn't bode well for Minnesota on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Vikings have covered just 32 of 90 when favored by 7+ points in the regular season.  Take Cleveland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:15 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over San Diego State.  Hawaii does come into this game off a 37-26 win over San Jose, but it failed to cover the spread in that game, and has dropped five straight to the number, overall.  But we'll step in and take the points with Hawaii, as it falls into an 85% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 5+ ATS losses.  Also, the Rainbow Warriors are a solid 22-9 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a win, while the Aztecs are a money-burning 8-15 ATS as a favorite away from home vs. .401 (or better) teams.  Take Hawaii.

At 10:45 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona State.  USC is 6-2 this season, but hasn't made many friends in Vegas, as it's covered just once (vs. Stanford), and enters this game on a six-game ATS losing streak.  Arizona State, on the other hand, is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS its last four (all Pac-12 Conference games), including upset wins in each of its two previous games (as 17.5 and 9.5-point underdogs).  But those last two upset wins set up our play on Saturday, as NCAA teams off back to back upset wins as an underdog of more than 9 points are a poor 36.6% ATS since 1980.  Additionally, USC is a strong 22-9 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss.  Take Southern Cal minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves have won and covered four in a row in this series.  But they were favored by more than 14 points in the three previous games.  It's a much different story for this game, as the point spread indicates the game should be very competitive.  And College Football teams have covered just 36% since 1995 if they were playing on the road vs. a revenge-minded team which had lost SU/ATS each of the three previous games, if our road team was favored by more than 10 points in those three games, but is not favored by 5+ points for the current game.  New Mexico St. also had last week off, so it will be playing this game with an extra week of rest.  And New Mexico State has cashed 80% when playing with rest, if it was off a win, and its foe was unrested.  Take New Mexico State.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Mississippi State.  Both teams are 5-2 on the season, and come into this game off SEC Conference wins.  The Bulldogs blew out Kentucky, 45-7, at home last week, while Texas A&M upset Florida two weeks ago, 19-17, as a 3.5-point underdog.  The Aggies' extra week off is a big factor for me in this game, as Texas A&M falls into one of my best College Football "Rest" angles, which is 101-45 ATS since 1990.  Moreover, since 1980, the Aggies are a strong 18-3 SU and 14-5 ATS at home when playing with rest vs. an unrested foe.  And they're also 14-2 ATS at home as an underdog (or PK) vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take the points with the home underdog Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers + the points over Southern Miss.  The Blazers lost at Charlotte in their last game, 25-24, as a 9.5-point favorite.  But they now fall into a bounce-back system of mine which is 90-36 ATS.  Take the points with UAB.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over TCU.  Both teams come into this big game with strong records.  Iowa State is 5-2 (3-1 in Conference), and has won and covered its last three games.  Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have opened the season with seven straight wins (4-0 in Conference), and held their last two opponents (Kansas, Kansas State) to 6 points, combined!  Unfortunately, NCAA teams have been awful on the road if they held each of their previous two opponents to 6 points or less, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS win.  Since November 1981, our road teams have covered just 19 of 66 in this role.  Iowa State's also 7-2 its last 9 as home dogs.  Finally, 7-0 (or better) teams are a wallet-busting 18% ATS since 1990 as road favorites of more than 6 points vs. foes that have both a winning SU and winning ATS record.  Take Iowa State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Washington.  The Huskies lost for the first time this season in their last game -- a 13-7 defeat at Arizona State -- after opening the 2017 campaign with six straight wins.  Off that first defeat, we'll fade the Huskies, as they fall into negative 45-94 and 22-65 ATS "Bubble Burst" systems of mine that fade certain teams off their initial loss of the season (following 5+ wins to open the year).  Even worse:  the Huskies are a woeful 6-23 ATS their last 29 home games priced from -9.5 to -21 points.  Take UCLA.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Penn State.  The schedule-maker certainly didn’t do the Nittany Lions any favors when it gave them back to back games against Michigan and Ohio State.  And even worse for Penn State is the fact that Ohio State had last week off, so it will be very well-rested for this game against the undefeated Nittany Lions.  I love Ohio State to blow out Penn State, as coach Urban Meyer’s teams have been terrific when playing with rest.  They’ve gone 27-8 in this situation, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. undefeated opponents.  Additionally, the Buckeyes have been on quite a roll over their last three games.  They covered all three, while scoring 56, 62 and 56 points, and winning by an average of 48.67 points per game.  And College Football teams that scored 168 or more points over their three previous games, combined, have gone 56-24 ATS in the regular season since 1998.  Take the Buckeyes minus the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Pitt, as UVa falls into an 161-87 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses (Virginia was blown out as a 7-point favorite last week, at home, by Boston College).  Take UVa to rebound off that defeat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Louisville.  The Cardinals earned their biggest win of the season last week when they upset the Florida State Seminoles, as a 6.5-point underdog.  But off that win, I expect a big letdown on Saturday in Winston-Salem against a Demon Deacons squad has lost its three previous games.  Notwithstanding its recent performance, Wake Forest is still 4-3 on the season, and needs to win two of its final five games to gain bowl eligibility.  Wake's schedule is difficult down the stretch, so winning this game is critical.  For technical support, Louisville falls into a negative 129-200 ATS situation that goes against road teams off upset wins as 6-point (or greater) underdogs.  And the Demon Deacons also fall into 72-32 and 88-29 ATS Conference revenge angles of mine (the Deacons do play with revenge, as they lost 44-12 to the Cardinals last season).  Finally, the Cardinals are a horrid 0-11 ATS the past 17 years off an upset win when not getting 3+ points!  Yikes.  Take Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the WVU Mountaineers + the points over Oklahoma State, as WVU falls into a 30-0 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs +7 or more points.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles come into this game off back to back wins, and five straight covers.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles are a shocking 2-4 SU and 0-5-1 ATS.  But I like Florida State to get the $$$ on Friday.  Since 1980, teams off 5 ATS defeats are 55-29 ATS vs. foes off 3+ ATS wins.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo.  The Cardinals come into tonight's game on a 4-game losing streak.  And they're also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games (failing to cover by an average of 23.1 ppg).  Meanwhile, Toledo's off 3 straight wins, and two straight covers.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the Rockets.  But Ball State falls into a 179-120 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Likewise, Mid-American Conference home underdogs have cashed 63.4% if they are off back to back SU/ATS losses, and their opponent is off a win.  And College Football teams have won 64.1% the last 29 years if they failed to cover the pointspread by more than 15 points in each of their three previous games.  Take Ball State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New England.  These two teams met in last year's Super Bowl, and the Falcons absolutely blew the game, as they were up 28-3, but lost 34-28.  We had a big play on New England in that game, but we'll switch gears and take the points with the Falcons in this re-match.  Certainly, this is the most important game on the Falcons' schedule this season, as they no doubt want to avenge that stunning defeat.  And I believe they'll get it, as they fall into a 19-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine (the same angle I used as a basis for my play earlier this season on the Houston Texans +13.5 over New England).  Also, underdogs have cashed 83% when playing an opponent off a win, which defeated them in the Super Bowl in the previous meeting between the two teams.  Even better for Atlanta:  it falls into 87-34 and 151-66 ATS "bounce-back" systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off upset losses (Atlanta lost as a 14-point favorite to Miami last week).  Finally, road teams that lost outright as favorites of -11.5 (or more points) are an awesome 88% ATS since 1986 vs. non-division foes, provided they weren't getting more than 7 points.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 6-0, and ranked #4 in the country (after starting the season unranked).  But TCU is 0-3 ATS this season when laying 8 or more points.  And it's also a horrid 0-10 ATS its last 10 games at home.  That doesn't bode well for laying this many points.  Also, Kansas happened to lose by 45 points last week at Iowa State.  But Big 12 teams generally bounce back off blowout losses by 45+ points, as they've cashed 63% since over the past 21 years.  Finally, undefeated teams, with a record of 5-0 (or better) are an awful 35% ATS since 1980 at home vs. foes that failed to cover the spread by 20+ points in their previous game.  Take Kansas + the points.  NCAA Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have been installed as a home favorite vs. the Trojans, and I can’t pass up taking the points with USC.  First, Pac-12 single-digit underdogs are a super 152-107 ATS vs. non-conference foes since 1980, so that bodes well for USC.  Also, Southern Cal has gone 1-6 ATS in its seven games this season, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Notre Dame has won and covered four straight.  Now, on the surface, that may not seem like a good thing.  But pointspread failures also create value and opportunity, and that’s the situation here, on the road at Notre Dame.  Indeed,  teams off 4 or more pointspread losses are a super 73.3% ATS since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off 4 (or more) pointspread wins, including 9-0-1 ATS the last 10 when the game was competitively-priced with a pointspread less than 7 points.  Finally, the Fighting Irish are an awful 19-41 ATS as home favorites vs. winning opposition, including 4-18 ATS vs. foes with a losing pointspread record.  Take Southern California + the points.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks plus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars shocked Troy State last week, 19-8, as a 19-point underdog, to improve their record to 2-4 on the season.  And off that win, South Alabama has been installed as a favorite vs. the 3-3 Warhawks.  Unfortunately, College Football teams generally suffer letdowns following upsets as a 14-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and especially when matched up against .500 (or better) opponents, as they've cashed just 40% since 1980.  Even worse:  the Jaguars have covered just 1 of their last 10 at home when favored by 4+ points.  Take Louisiana Monroe.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green come into this game off back to back upset wins (over Texas San Antonio and Southern Miss), which moved their record to 4-2 on the season.  But those two upsets have placed North Texas in a negative system of mine which has covered just 31% ATS since 1980 (including 0-9 ATS its last 9).  What we want to do is go against any road underdog off back to back upset wins, if it's now playing a conference foe off a double-digit conference win.  With the Owls, indeed, off a 58-28 blowout win over Old Dominion, we'll lay the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State.  Kentucky is off to a great start this season, as it's won five of its six games, with its only loss by a single point to the Florida Gators.  And the Wildcats led by 13 points in the 4th quarter vs. Florida, but gave up two late touchdowns (including the last one with just 43 seconds left) to succumb, 28-27.  With that as a backdrop, it's hard to pass up taking double-digits with Kentucky, given that the Bulldogs are an awful 14-25 ATS as a home favorite of -10 (or more) points, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a win by 6+ points.  Even better:  Kentucky had last week off, so it will be well-rested, while the Bulldogs had to play a game vs. BYU.  And rested SEC Conference teams are a super 88-60 ATS on the road vs. non-rested conference foes, including 37-19 ATS when catching 8+ points.  Finally, the Wildcats fall into a 101-41 ATS System of mine which plays on certain rested teams.  Take Kentucky.  SEC Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on Virginia minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles upset Louisville, 45-42, as an 18.5-point underdog last week.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams off upset wins the previous week, as an underdog of 14+ points, are an awful 40% ATS since 1980 vs. .500 (or better) opponents.  With Virginia 5-1 on the season, including 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, we'll lay the points with the Cavaliers.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Akron.  The Zips pulled off a huge upset last weekend when they went into Western Michigan and won outright, 14-13, as a 12.5-point underdog.  That also was Akron's 3rd straight win (and fourth straight cover).  But we'll fade Akron at Toledo on this Saturday, as underdogs of +3 (or more) points, off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, and on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak, have covered just 28% over the past 38 years vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Meanwhile, Toledo's a perfect 6-0 ATS at home vs. foes off upset wins.  And Akron's a horrid 0-10 ATS off an upset win, if its W/L percentage was .500 (or better).  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Idaho.  After struggling in their first four games, where they went 1-3 straight-up, and 0-4 ATS (failing to cover by 21.0 ppg), the Missouri Tigers have cashed the last two weeks in Vegas, as they lost again straight-up, but snuck inside the number vs. Kentucky and Georgia.  So, the fact that Idaho is coming into town (rather than an SEC Conference foe) must be a welcome sight for the Tigers, as they no doubt would love to snap their 5-game losing streak.  Missouri has been installed as a double-digit home favorite, and it is in its best pointspread role on Saturday.  Since 1997, Missouri is a perfect 13-0 SU/ATS at home when favored by 13+ points, if it lost its previous game!  And it's won those games by an average margin of 30.69 ppg, and covered by an average of 9.64.  Lay the points with Mizzou.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State.  The Lobos were shut out last week by Fresno State, 38-0, as a 2.5-point favorite.  That was by far the worst game the Lobos have played this season.  Indeed, they had covered the pointspread in each of their three games prior to that upset loss.  The good news is that College Football teams generally bounce back from such poor games, and especially if they were a reliable team against the spread theretofore.  For technical support, consider that home teams off losses, that failed to cover by 35+ points in that loss, are 72.2% ATS since 1980 if they also have a winning ATS record on the season.  Take the Lobos.  Mountain West Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs + the points over Western Kentucky.  Old Dominion is 2-4 SU and has dropped its last 4 games (including a 35-3 blowout at Marshall last week), while the Hilltoppers are on a 3-game win streak.  But in Vegas, Western Kentucky has burned just as much money as Old Dominion, as each team is just 1-5 against the spread.  We'll take the points with Old Dominion, as home teams have covered a fantastic 79% of conference games since 1980 if they lost their three previous games, and failed to cover their most recent game by more than 12 points, while their opponent won their three previous games, but owned a losing ATS record on the season.  Take Old Dominion.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City.  We played against the Chiefs last week, and got the $$$ with Pittsburgh.  And we'll play against them once again, tonight, in Oakland, as the Chiefs fall into negative 115-206, 208-281, 126-20, 156-240 and 67-147 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, Oakland comes into tonight's game off an upset loss last week vs. the Chargers, and four straight losses overall (both straight-up and ATS).  Now, on the surface, this may not seem like a good thing.  But consider that home teams are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursday nights off back to back losses, if they were upset in their previous game, and now face a division rival.  Moreover, the Raiders are 25-14-1 ATS as AFC West division dogs off back to back losses, including 14-2 ATS when priced from +2 to + 6 points (and 9-0 ATS if their foe is also off a loss).  Finally, teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have cashed 67.9% the past 18 years if they won at least 10 games in the previous regular season, while teams with a current W/L percentage better than .300 have cashed 63.2% at home off 4 SU/ATS losses.  Take the points with the Raiders.  AFC West Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Titans were upset in each of their last two games -- 57-14 at Houston, and 16-10, at Miami.  But they now return home to take on the Indianapolis Colts, who upended San Francisco last week, 26-23, as a 1-point underdog.  And one of the things I love to do is take favorites of more than 6 points on Monday Night Football that return home off back to back road games.  These teams have cashed 72% since 1980.  Even worse for the Colts:  they're a poor 35.7% ATS off an upset win vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Tennessee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs have played superb football this season, as they're 5-0 SU and ATS (covering by an average of 9.1 ppg), including an opening week win at New England.  Pittsburgh, in contrast, has had an up-and-down season, as it's 3-2 SU, but 2-3 ATS (failing to cover by an average of 5.3 ppg), including a head-scratching home loss to Jacksonville last week.  In that game, The Steelers were favored by 7.5, but lost 30-9 to the Jaguars, so they failed to cover the spread by a whopping 28.5 points.  For the season, the Chiefs, then, have a pointspread differential of +14.4 compared to the Steelers.  But this strong relative success sets up our play, as the Steelers fall into a 79-33-2 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a poor pointspread differential, as well as a 21-0 ATS subset of that general angle (which hasn't lost since 1992).  Finally, the Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS when priced between +7 and -3 points after giving up 28+ points in their previous game.  Take the Steelers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Rams were upset at home last week by Seattle, and fell to 3-2 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Jaguars upset Pittsburgh, 30-9, as a 7.5-point underdog in their previous game, and also have a 3-2 record this year.  But that upset win has set up Jacksonville in several negative systems of mine, with records of 48-92 and 49-91 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for Jacksonville:  it's covered just 9 of 28 off upset wins since 2008, including five of 18 at home.  Finally, .600 (or better) teams off upset losses have cashed 60.3% over the last 38 years vs. .600 (or better) foes off upset wins.  Take the Rams + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay.  The Cardinals have started the season 2-3, and were blown out by 27 points in their last game by Philadelphia, 34-7.  But one of the things I like to do in the NFL is play on home underdogs off blowout losses.  Indeed, we saw on Monday night the Chicago Bears rebound off their 21-point loss to Green Bay to cover the number as a home dog vs. Minnesota.  And, since 1980, teams off a loss by more than 20 points have gone 74-49 ATS as home underdogs if their opponent is also off a straight-up and against the spread loss.  Also, I don’t believe Tampa Bay’s performance warrants that it be favored on the road.  After all, it’s lost its last three games against the spread, and is just 2-2 straight-up this season.  And the Buccaneers have covered just four of their last 18 games when favored on the road.  Meanwhile, Arizona is 31-17 ATS its last 48 as home underdogs.  Take the Cardinals.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Houston.  It's true that the Browns are winless on the season.  But winless teams often confer value, and that's the case on this Sunday.  Indeed, since 1980, winless teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) record, are 63% ATS vs. foes that have a win percentage better than .250, provided our winless team didn't cover the pointspread in its previous game.  With the Browns off a SU/ATS loss to the Jets last week to fall to 0-5 this season, we'll grab the points in this game.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/Minnesota game.  With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Green Bay Packers have gone 'over' the total more often than not.  But the one situation where they've consistently gone 'under' has been on the road vs. division rivals.  And especially when the over/under line has been between 40.5 and 45.5 points.  In that range, Green Bay has gone 'under' in 10 of 11 vs. NFC North rivals on the road.  Indeed, the last three games at Minnesota have all gone 'under' the total (with the games from the last two seasons also falling within our O/U range of 40.5 to 45.5 points).  Last season, Rodgers passed for a pedestrian 213 yards, and threw one interception in a 17-14 defeat.  Green Bay did win the previous two seasons (30-13 and 24-21), but neither game was particularly high-scoring, and each also went 'under' the posted total.  I love the 'under once again in this game, as it falls into an 87-53 Totals system of mine.  Also, Minnesota has gone 'under' the total in 16 of 20 games off a win, including 12-1 'under' vs. foes with a W/L percentage of .571 (or better).  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At midnight, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over San Jose St.  Hawaii was upset by Nevada, 35-21, as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday.  And that loss extended Hawaii's SU/ATS losing streak to four games.  But it's a super 63% ATS over the past 20 years off an upset defeat, while San Jose is a poor 29% ATS vs. foes off upset losses.  Hawaii also falls into a 102-64 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses.  Finally, Hawaii will have a big advantage on the ground, as it averages 5.7 ypg (against foes that give up 4.9 ypr), while San Jose only rushes for 3.2 ypr (against a schedule of opponents that give up 4.0 ypr).  And losing teams, favored by double-digits, that rush for at least 5.5 yards per carry have cashed 68% over the past 21 years vs. conference foes that don't rush for more than 3.5 yards per carry.  Take the Rainbow Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins over Arizona.  Both of these Pac-12 schools are 3-2, with each coming into this game off wins over Colorado.  UCLA played the Buffaloes two weeks ago (and, thus, are rested), while Arizona upset the Buffaloes in Boulder last Saturday.  Unfortunately for Arizona, that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 23-90, 74-159 and 95-169.  Also, the Wildcats are a very poor 2-17 ATS off an upset win when not getting 7+ points, including 0-10 ATS vs. .600 (or worse) opponents.  Take UCLA.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Michigan State.  This is a big letdown spot for the Spartans, who upset their rival -- the Michigan Wolverines -- in Ann Arbor last week, 14-10, as an 11-point underdog.  The Spartans are now 4-1 on the season, while Minnesota is 3-2 after its loss to Purdue last Saturday.  But .600 (or better) teams. off an upset win as a double-digit road underdog, are an awful 28% ATS on the road vs. foes off a loss since 1980.  The Spartans are also 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites.  Take Minnesota.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Utah.  Both teams come into this huge Pac-12 affair with one loss.  The Utes fell by 3, at home, to Stanford, while USC lost at Washington St.  Stanford is the only common opponent of these two teams, and the disparate results are illuminating.  Indeed, USC blew out the Cardinal in Week 2, 42-24, as a 3.5-point favorite (and outgained them by 181 yards), while Utah lost last week, 23-20, as a 3-point underdog (and was outgained by 2 yards).  The Trojans do come into this game off a win, however, as they bombed Oregon State, 38-10, but failed to cover the 33-point spread.  I look for USC to register another blowout this week (and also cover the number), as the Trojans fall into a 64-24 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off pointspread defeats.  Moreover, USC is 10-1 ATS at home as a favorite of 17 or less points off an ATS loss, while Utah is 0-8 ATS vs. Conference foes off back to back ATS defeats.  Finally, it's certainly true that Utah is 4-0-1 ATS this season.  But Utah's unblemished ATS record works to create line value for USC.  And, unfortunately for Utah, Pac-12 road underdogs of +4 (or more) points are a poor 28% ATS over the past 22 years if they're undefeated ATS (at Game 4 forward).  Lay the points with USC.  Pac-12 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on Louisiana Monroe minus the points over Georgia State.  The Warhawks are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak after blowing out Texas State, 45-27, last week, as a 5.5-point road favorite.  And they topped 50 points in their two games before that, with wins over Coastal Carolina (51-43) and La Lafayette (56-50).  I won't step in front of this freight train, as home teams off 3 SU/ATS wins have cashed 61% since 1980 if they scored over 150 points combined in their three previous games.  Take Louisiana Monroe.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Charlotte.  The 49ers are winless this season (0-6), while Western Kentucky is 3-2, including SU wins in its last two games.  But neither team has had much success in Vegas, as the 49ers are 2-4 ATS (covering their last two games), while the Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS.  But I love Western Kentucky to get its first ATS win of the year, as home teams off a win have cashed 71.7% since 1980 vs. winless teams with an 0-6 (or worse) record, if our winless team is off a pointspread win.  Also, Western Kentucky is 16-3 ATS in Conference games off back to back wins, if the pointspread was less than 30 points.  Take the Hilltoppers.  Conference USA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Auburn.  LSU has disappointed this season, with surprising losses to both Mississippi State and Troy State, while Auburn has played well, with its only defeat being a narrow 14-6 loss to defending Champ, Clemson.  But Auburn's three SEC victories (Missouri, Mississippi State, Ole Miss) were against teams that currently have a combined conference record of 1-7.  And it's hard to make a case for Auburn as a big road favorite, given that it's lost its last 8 games at LSU.  I really liked that LSU shook off its upset loss to Troy State with a 1-point road win last week at Florida (though LSU failed to cover the closing line of -1.5, and hasn't covered since its opening week shutout of BYU).  Coach Ed Orgeron didn't hide the fact that the coaching staff had meetings to fix problems on the staff, and one of the things that came out of the sessions was Orgeron's agreement to not micro-manage his coordinators.  Offensive coordinator Matt Canada was given freedom to run his full offense, and the team benefited last week.  There were also two players-only meetings, and the LSU team played noticeably with more toughness and energy vs. Florida than it did to start the season.  LSU falls into 52-25, 102-64 and 64-24 ATS Systems of mine that play on certain teams on ATS losing streaks.  Don't be surprised if there's an upset in Baton Rouge on Saturday.  Take the points.  SEC GAME OF THE WEEK.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan.  The Chippewas leveled their record at 3-3 after upsetting Ohio, 26-23, as a 10-point road underdog last week, while Toledo moved its mark to 4-1 after getting by Eastern Michigan, at home, 20-15.  But it's hard for teams to pull off back to back upset wins, and I look for CMU to suffer a letdown on Saturday.  For technical support, consider that home dogs have covered just 34% since 1980 off an outright win as a double-digit road underdog, if they're matched up against .800 (or better) foes.  Even worse for CMU:  it's 0-9 ATS as an underdog of +6 or more points off an upset win.  Take Toledo.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Virginia, as UNC falls into a 67% ATS system of mine.  What we want to do is go against any team away from home off 3 ATS wins, if it's up against an opponent off 3 ATS losses, and the line is less than 11 points.  And that's the situation today, as Virginia is off 3 ATS wins, while UNC is off 3 ATS losses.  Take North Carolina.  NCAA Roadkill.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats plus the points over TCU.  Last week, the Wildcats fell by 6, in overtime, to Texas, as a 5-point underdog, and are now 3-2 on the season.  The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are undefeated, at 5-0, and have been installed as a road favorite in Manhattan vs. K-State.  However, TCU's been a very weak favorite of late, including 8-23 ATS since 2011 when priced as a favorite of less than 14 points.  And Kansas State has been terrific as a home dog, with a 28-16 record since 1988, including 11-1 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.   Moreover, undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, have cashed a paltry 31% since 1980 as road favorites of -2.5 (or more) points vs. .600 (or better) teams off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the points with Kansas State on Saturday.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over South Carolina.  In their last game, the Volunteers were blanked, 41-0, by Georgia, here at home.  The Gamecocks, meanwhile blew out Arkansas, 48-22, in Columbia last Saturday.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with South Carolina, given that they're 4-2 SU/ATS, while Tennessee is just 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on the season.  But favorites off a 25-point (or worse) defeat have cashed a whopping 70.7% over the past 38 years vs. conference foes off a 25-point (or better) victory.  But that's not the best part.  If our favored team also has a .571 (or better) win percentage, then our 70.7% ATS system zooms to a nearly-perfect 14-1, 93% ATS.  Also, .500 (or better) teams have gone 71% ATS at home since 1980 off a home shutout loss (and 78% in Conference games)!  I look for the Vols to redeem themselves off their 41-0 home defeat.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Minnesota.  Last week, both the Vikings and Bears lost, as Minnesota was upset by Detroit, 14-7, while Chicago lost, 35-14, to Green Bay.  Chicago's now 1-3, so coach John Fox has decided to make a change at signal caller.  Thus, the Mitch Trubisky Era will start tonight at Soldier Field, and  I love Chicago in a home dog role, as it falls into a 136-61 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off losses by 20+ points.  Even worse for Minnesota:  .500 (or better) teams off an upset loss have cashed just 35.4% on Monday nights the past 38 seasons.  And the Bears are 25-7 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a loss by 6+ points, if the Bears' win pct was less than .400.  Also, NFC North Division underdogs have cashed 64 of 107 division games off a loss.  Finally, the Vikings are a woeful 4-16 ATS at Chicago when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-9 ATS if the Vikings weren't off a SU/ATS win.  Take Chicago.  MNF Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  The Rams have been a surprising offensive team this season, as they're averaging 35.5 points per game (after averaging just 14 ppg last season).  But the four teams that Los Angeles has played this year are giving up, on average, 26 points per game.  Seattle, on the other hand, will be the best defense the Rams have faced yet, as it's giving up just 19.25 ppg.  Over the previous seven seasons, 11 of the 14 meetings between these teams have gone 'under' the total.  And the 'under' also falls into a super 86-53 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Baltimore/Oakland game, as it falls into a great Totals system of mine which has cashed 73.3% since 1980.  Additionally, Oakland has gone 'over' the total 21-6-2 in its last 29 home games, including 6-0 its last six, and also a perfect 10-0-2 'over' when priced from 40.5 to 44 points.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Miami/Tennessee game, as it falls into 59-27, 108-69 and 152-102 Totals systems of mine.  It's true that Miami's offense struggled last week, as it was shutout, 20-0, by New Orleans, and is averaging just 8.3 ppg.  But Miami should find the sledding easier against Tennessee.  After all, the Titans gave up more points (57) last week than any other team has given up in almost 5 years!  And that was against a Texans team which had averaged just 17.6 ppg coming into the game.  So, when viewed in that context, it was the most points any team had given up in 21 years vs. a team that averaged less than 18 ppg!  And, for additional technical support, consider that NFL teams (like Miami) have gone 'over' the total 70.2% since 1980 if they don't average more than 10 ppg on offense, and have gone 'under' the total in their 3 previous games.  Finally, seven of Miami's last eight home games, and nine of Tennessee's last 12 road games have sailed 'over' the total.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Last week, the Bills upset the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons, 23-17, as an 8 point underdog.  That moved the Bills' record to 3-1 on the season.  But off that upset win, I look for a letdown in Cincy on Sunday.  Indeed, since 1981, .680 (or better) teams off an upset win on the road as an 8-point (or greater) underdog have cashed an atrocious 15% of the time on the road.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that Buffalo is 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or less off a win as a dog of more than 3 points.  Finally, Cincy is 27-10 ATS when priced between +3 and -9.5 at home vs. a foe off an upset win, including 7-0 ATS if such foe was a dog of more than 6 points in its previous game.  Take the Bengals.  NFL Roadkill Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the New York Giants.  It's absolutely correct that the Chargers have burned money this season, as they're 0-4 straight-up, and 0-3-1 ATS.  But their three ATS losses came at home.  However, it's on the road where the Chargers have made friends in Vegas, as they're 44-22-5 ATS their last 71 when not laying 2+ points, including 29-6-4 ATS if the Chargers were not off a SU/ATS win!  Take the Chargers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the New York Jets.  Last week, we played on the Jets as a home underdog vs. Jacksonville, and were rewarded with a 23-20 overtime victory.  That also was New York’s 2nd straight upset win as a home underdog.  Unfortunately, now the Jets go back on the road where they are 0-2 straight-up and against-the-spread this season.  And while it’s true that the Browns were blown out at home by 24 points last week, and have yet to win a game this season, consider that teams off back to back losses are an awesome 77-49 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins, including 30-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes.  Moreover, home teams have also cashed 71% since 1980 off a home loss by 24 or more points when matched up against an opponent off back to back wins.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles, as Arizona falls into a 67% ATS system of mine, which plays on certain road underdogs that didn't cover the pointspread in their previous game.  It's true that Philly is 3-1 on the season, but Arizona is a sensational 44-26 ATS vs. .750 (or better) teams, including 40-22 ATS as an underdog.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks over the Washington State Cougars.  Mike Leach's Cougars upset previously undefeated Southern Cal last week, 30-27, as a 4.5-point underdog.  Not surprisingly, teams that pull off such upsets generally have letdowns in their next game, and especially when going into revenge.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off home upset wins over previously undefeated opponents have covered just 27.4% on the road when matched up against revenge-minded foes, if priced between -17 and +3.5 points!  Last year, Washington State upset Oregon, 51-33, in Pullman, so the Ducks will be looking to avenge that upset defeat here, at Autzen Stadium, on Saturday.  The Ducks are also a super 23-7 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, and not laying more than 20 points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were favored by more than 2 points in that upset defeat the previous season.  Take Oregon.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Fresno St.  The Spartans come into this home game off 4 straight losses (both SU and ATS), and are now 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season.  They've also failed to cover the spread by 14.58 ppg this season.  But the good news for San Jose is that it's back home on Saturday, where it's gone 2-1 ATS this season.  Also, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take the points with San Jose.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Alabama has certainly impressed over the past two weeks, with back to back blowout wins over Vanderbilt (59-0), as a 19-point favorite, and Ole Miss (66-3), as a 29-point favorite.  But we will play against the Tide on Saturday, as undefeated road favorites of -11 (or more) points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a dreadful 0-19 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road favorite's average margin of victory for the season was 28.8 ppg (or better).  Take the Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas San Antonio.  After winning (and covering) each of their first three games this season, the Golden Eagles were upset at home, 43-28, by North Texas last week.  Meanwhile, the Roadrunners blew out Texas St., 44-14, as a 13.5 point favorite.  We'll take the points with Southern Miss, as winning teams have cashed 68.1% in regular season conference games over the past 33 years off a conference loss in which they failed to cover by 16+ points, if they're now double-digit dogs against a foe off a win, in which that foe covered the spread by 16+ points.  Take Southern Miss.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Colorado State.  Utah State comes into this game off back to back impressive wins.  The Aggies routed San Jose 61-10 two weeks ago, and then blew out BYU 40-24 last Friday.  I love playing on home underdogs that can score, and the Aggies certainly fit the bill as they're averaging 34.4 ppg through their first five games.  And, since 1980, home dogs of more than 7 points that average 32+ ppg after at least 5 games, and are off momentum-building back to back wins, have cashed 72% (including 13-1 ATS the past 4 seasons).  Take the Aggies. Mountain West Dog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland.  Last week, the Buckeyes shut out Rutgers, in Piscataway, 56-0.  I won't step in front of Urban Meyer's men, here, at home, as College Football teams off a 33-point (or better) shutout road win are 38-15 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes.  Take Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Purdue.  The Gophers lost for the first time this season last week when they fell, 31-24, at home to Maryland, as a 13.5-point favorite.  But I look for Minny to bounce back on Saturday, as .600 (or better) single-digit road underdogs have cashed 71.4% in conference games since 1980, if they lost as a double-digit home favorite the week before.  Moreover, Purdue's covered just 31% over the past 38 years vs. winning Big 10 Conference foes off an upset loss.  Take the points with Minnesota.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes + the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies covered the pointspread for the 4th straight time last week when they fell by just six points to San Diego State (as a 9.5-point underdog).  Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, its 4-0 ATS record sets it up in a very poor situation this weekend.  Since 1980, teams off a pointspread win in Game 4, with an undefeated ATS record thru their first 4 games, are an awful 103-147 (41% ATS) in Conference games at Game 5 of the season.  I look for Kent State to sneak in under this inflated number.  Take the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 4-0 on the season following their upset win two weeks ago in Stillwater, where they shocked Oklahoma State, 44-31, as a 9.5-point underdog.  This week, they'll have another high-octane offense with which to contend, as WVU has scored 56, 59 and 56 points in its last three games (all wins by 22+ points).  We'll grab the points with the Mountaineers, as teams that scored 169+ points in their three previous games are an awesome 70.1% ATS in the regular season since 1998.  Take WVU.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Tulsa.  The Green Wave haven't had many winning seasons over the years (just 1 over the past 14 seasons, in fact), but are 2-2 thus far.  In contrast, Tulsa's won 9 of its past 14 seasons, but is off to a 1-4 start.  So, even though Tulane has not been favored in any of the 12 meetings over the past 12 seasons, and has lost 11 of those 12 games, it has been installed as the favorite this year.  One factor in Tulane's favor is that it will be playing with rest, as it had last week off following its win two weeks ago vs. Army.  And Tulane falls into a super 99-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested, revenge-minded teams not favored by more than a touchdown.  Also, the Green Wave are a fantastic 21-9 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -3 to -7 points.  Lay it.  NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars + the points over Boise State.  BYU comes into this game with an 0-5 ATS record, and that's created value for us.  We'll grab the points, as Boise's an awful 3-12 ATS as a favorite.  And the Broncos also fall into a negative 47-88 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road favorites when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Finally, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take BYU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Tampa Bay.  Last week, the Pats lost at home to the Carolina Panthers.  But New England is the league's best franchise at bouncing back off losses.  Indeed, Bill Belichick's crew is 43-7 SU and 37-13 ATS since Dec. 29, 2002 following a defeat (and also fall into 30-0, 35-1 and 29-1 ATS variations of this general angle).  That's one reason to back Tom Brady & Co. on this Thursday.  Another is that defending Super Bowl champs are 19-5 ATS on the road off a loss vs. .615 (or better) foes off a win.  Take New England to blow out the Buccaneers.  NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Washington.  The Chiefs opened this season with a dominant 42-27 win over the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, and haven't looked back since.  They're now 3-0 SU and ATS following a win at the Chargers last Sunday.  Some might look for KC to have a letdown, but not me.  Indeed, since 1980, 3-0 NFL teams are 38-5 SU and 31-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes, including 22-3 ATS if they happen to not be favored by 7+ points, and also 8-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Chiefs.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Denver.  The Raiders were blown out by 17 points on the road at Washington last Sunday night.  And they went into that game as a 3.5-point favorite.  Interestingly, Denver also lost by double-digits on the road as a 3.5-point favorite.  I’ll grab the points with Derek Carr & Co., as AFC West division teams are 120-78 ATS as road underdogs in divisional games off a straight-up loss, including 63-32 ATS if their opponent is also off a loss.  And .666 (or better) teams have cashed 61% as road underdogs since 1980 off a loss by 14 or more points.  Finally, over the past 15 years, the Broncos are a wallet-busting 12-29 ATS as home favorites vs. foe off a loss, including 1-10 ATS if the Broncos are also off a loss.  Take Oakland.  NFL Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, the Jaguars played the best game of any team over the past three years, when they won by 37 points (44-7), as a 3 point underdog, and thus covered by 40 points.  Unfortunately for the Jaguars, teams that cover the spread by 40+ points have sustained their ATS success in their next game just 33% of the time since 1989 (and just 21% if they weren't favored by 3+ points in their previous game).  That doesn't bode well for the Jaguars on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that the Jags are just 26.6% since 1999 as road favorites off an upset win.  Take the Jets.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Last week, the Bills stunned Denver, 26-16, as a 3-point underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade the Bills on Sunday, as they fall into a wallet-busting 0-18 ATS system.  What we want to do is play against any winning team, as a dog of more than 7 points, off a home win by more than 8 points, provided they weren't favored by 2+ points in that previous game.  Take Atlanta. NFL Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Oregon.  We played against Oregon last week, and took the 15 points with Arizona State, which upset the Ducks, in Tempe, 37-35.  As i discussed last week, Oregon's schedule was rather weak to begin the season, so I wasn't very impressed with its 3-0 start.  Of course, now, the Ducks are 3-1, and do return home, but I don't look for them to bounce back, as they fall into a nasty 0-23 ATS system, which plays against certain teams, favored by 7+ points in conference games, off a loss as a 14-point (or greater) favorite.  Moreover, Oregon's just 3-10 ATS its last 13 off an upset loss as a road favorite, while California is 10-1 ATS vs. Conference foes off an upset loss, when Cal is priced from +6 to +16.  Take California.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies pulled off a huge upset as a double-digit dog in their last game, at Nebraska.  But off that upset win, I look for a letdown at SDSU, as teams are 30% ATS since 1980 off an upset win as a double-digit dog, if they're now on the road against a winning, non-conference foe, which is also off a win.  Take San Diego State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over Fresno State.  The Bulldogs come into this game off back to back blowout losses (by 31 and 32 points), and have now been installed as a big favorite vs. Nevada.  But Fresno has been awful when laying 7+ points, as it's covered just 16 of 50, including 1-10 ATS off back to back losses.  Additionally, Fresno falls into negative 43-107 and 86-164 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off losses.  Take Nevada.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies + the points over Clemson.  The Tigers' defense of their National Championship has gotten off to a strong start.  Clemson is 4-0 straight-up, and 3-1 ATS, including SU/ATS wins over Auburn and Louisville.  But I expect its win streak to be halted by the Hokies, as Va Tech is also 4-0, and has pitched shutouts in two of its four games.  These two teams last met in the ACC Championship game last season, when Clemson vanquished Va Tech, 42-35.  Unfortunately for the Tigers, defending National Champs are a soft 26-52 ATS away from home when off back-to-back wins, and not favored by 14+ points.   And home teams have cashed 79% when playing with revenge from a post-season defeat, if priced from -3.5 to +10 points.  Finally, Virginia Tech is a solid 70-38 ATS as home dogs of more than a point, including 29-11 ATS when playing with revenge.  Take Virginia Tech.  NCAA Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over North Texas.  These two teams have traded home wins (and covers) the past two seasons, with North Texas pulling the upset last season in Denton.  This season, both teams are off to decent starts.  Southern Miss has covered each of its three games this season (winning straight-up twice), including a 28-17 win two weeks ago at Louisiana Monroe (Southern Miss had last week off).  North Texas is 2-2 (after going 5-8 last season), and won last week, at home, vs. UAB, but gave up 43 points in the process.  And it has given up 54, 31 and 43 points in its three games this season vs. FBS (Division 1) schools.  That doesn't bode well, here, vs. Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles have cashed 86% since 1980 when playing with rest, if they owned a defense at least 11 ppg better than their foe.  And North Texas is also 0-8 ATS when playing a rested opponent, if the Mean Green are priced from +4.5 to +11.5 points.  Finally, Conference USA home teams are 27-11 ATS when rested, and playing with revenge vs. an unrested conference foe (including 21-5 ATS vs. .400 or better foes).  Take Southern Miss.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan State.  Both the Hawkeyes and Spartans come into Saturday's game off losses.  But Iowa played great in its defeat, with a narrow 2-point loss vs. Penn State.  In contrast, Michigan St was blown out, 38-18, by Notre Dame.  We'll take the points with Iowa, as it falls into 217-109 and 167-89 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams, in conference games, off a loss.  Moreover, this is a series which has been dominated by the Hawkeyes.  Since 1988, Iowa is 15-5-1 ATS vs. Michigan State, including 10-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +21 points!  And Michigan State is a woeful 24-51 ATS off a loss, if its W/L percentage was .500 or better.  Take Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal minus the points over Arizona State.  Last week, we played on the Sun Devils as a 14.5-point underdog, and were rewarded with an outright win over Oregon.  That leveled ASU's record at 2-2, and they'll now travel to Palo Alto to take on Stanford, which is also 2-2 following its 58-34 blowout of UCLA.  We'll play against Arizona State, as it is a poor 0-8 ATS as road underdogs off an upset win vs. foes not off an upset win.  Meanwhile, Stanford is a powerful 50-20 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes, if it's off a win by 13+ points, and also covered the spread in that previous game.  Take Stanford.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Kansas State.  Last week, the Bears played great, and almost upset the Oklahoma Sooners, as a 28-point underdog.  They lost by just eight points, 49-41, but easily covered the spread by 20 points.  Off that impressive game, I look for Baylor to once again get the cash as a double-digit underdog, as it is 14-3 ATS its last 17 conference games when getting 11+ points.  And it's also an awesome 18-0 ATS since 2011 when coming off a double-digit cover in its previous game, provided it's not favored by 32+ points.  Take the points with Baylor.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies blew out Texas El Paso last week, 41-14, as a 17-point favorite.  And that win extended New Mexico State's ATS run to 4-0 this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the double-digits with New Mexico State, especially since Arkansas has yet to cover the pointspread this season.  But consider that, since 1980, College Football underdogs of +14 or more points are an awful 37-62 ATS away from home off 4+ ATS wins in a row!  And New Mexico State's a poor 5-12 ATS on the road off back to back covers.  Take the Razorbacks.  NCAA High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Wisconsin.  Northwestern bounced back off its upset loss at Duke in Week 2 to blow out Bowling Green, 49-7, in its third game.  The Wildcats are now 2-1 SU, and will take on undefeated (3-0) Wisconsin, in Madison, on Saturday.  The Wildcats also had last weekend off, and fall into a 93-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested underdogs of +7 or more points.  Additionally, Big 10 underdogs of 7+ points, with a winning record, have cashed 76.1% since 1980 when playing with rest vs. conference foes off back to back wins.  Take Northwestern.  Big 10 Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois, as Illinois falls into several negative systems of mine, with records of 87-169, 37-107, and 75-176 ATS since 1980.  Nebraska won its Big 10 opener last week vs. Rutgers, but failed to cover the 11-point spread, as it won by just 10, 27-17.  Illinois, meanwhile, plays its conference opener tonight.  So far this season, the Illini have not made many friends in Vegas, as they come into this game with a 1-2 ATS record, which is par for the course, as they have been a consistent money-burner over the years.  Since 2002, Illinois is 65-96 ATS, including 33-64 when the pointspread was less than 11 points.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has been solid as a road team vs. Big 10 Conference foes, including 8-2 ATS vs. foes off a loss.  And the 'Huskers are also 42-24 ATS on the road when favored and not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Texas.  Iowa State comes into this game on a 3-game ATS win streak following its blowout victory at Akron (41-14) on Sept. 16.  Texas also played 12 days ago, and suffered a tough 3-point loss at Southern Cal, 27-24.  That defeat has placed Texas into 3 negative systems of mine, with records of 59-124, 79-142 and 217-336.  Meanwhile, the fact that Iowa State is playing with a week of rest at home, and also with revenge, has triggered several very good systems on the Cyclones with records of 39-10, 50-22, 112-73, 107-56 and 43-23.  Finally, the Cyclones have scored more than 40 points in each of their first three games this season.  And NCAA home underdogs of 5+ points have cashed a super 91% since 1980 vs. conference foes if our home dog scored 40+ points in its three previous games.  Take Iowa State.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Tennessee.  The Seahawks have gotten off to a slow start this season.  They lost, 17-9, at Green Bay in Week 1.  And then only scored 12 points vs. a poor San Francisco team last week, but eked out a 12-9 victory.  But we've seen this before with Pete Carroll's squad.  Indeed, just last season, Seattle scored just 15 points over its first two games.  And the previous year, it actually LOST its first two games outright, but still managed to go 10-6 that season.  So, it's not yet time to panic.  And, for technical support, consider that Seattle is an awesome 54-25-2 ATS after failing to score 20+ points in its two previous games, including a perfect 11-0 ATS under coach Carroll!  Additionally, Tennessee falls into negative 23-59 and 48-95 ATS systems of mine.  Take Seattle.  Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England.  These two teams met in the Playoffs last season, and the Patriots came away with a 34-16 victory.  And they also whitewashed Houston, 27-0, in the regular season last year.  But we'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into an 18-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine.  Moreover, New England's defense has greatly fallen off from last year's numbers.  In 2016, it gave up just 15.6 ppg in the regular season.  But through its first two games this season, New England is surrendering 31 ppg.  That certainly augurs poorly for them.  And with respect to this game, it's worth noting that favorites of -9 or more points are a soft 49-80 ATS since 1980 when they give up more than 24 ppg.  Take Houston.  Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Atlanta.  The Falcons suffered a brutal loss in last year's Super Bowl, as they collapsed after being up by 25 points over New England.  And, generally speaking, the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous season have a somewhat difficult time the next year.  So far, Atlanta hasn't shown any ill effects, as it's 2-0 straight-up and 1-1 ATS.  But I expect it to stumble on Sunday, vs. the undefeated Lions.  Indeed, teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year are a poor 4-27-2 ATS as non-division road favorites priced from PK to -4, including 1-12 ATS if their win percentage was .700 (or better).  Even better:  home underdogs of +3 or more points, with a winning record, off a SU/ATS road win are 64% ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Detroit.  NFL Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon on Sunday, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Connecticut.  The hurricane season wrecked havoc on the College Football schedule, so we'll have a rare Sunday college football game this weekend.  Interestingly, both teams have yet to cover the pointspread this season.  East Carolina is 0-3 SU/ATS, while Connecticut is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS.  We'll grab the points with East Carolina, as UConn falls into a negative 44-124 ATS system of mine, which fades certain home favorites vs. teams with a losing ATS record.  Additionally, East Carolina has excelled as road underdogs of less than 8 points, as it's 28-15 ATS in this role, including 11-0 ATS if it lost its previous game by 9+ points.  Finally, Connecticut is a dreadful 0-7-1 ATS at home when PK/Favored since September 2012.  Take the Pirates.  High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Oregon.  Oregon went 3-0 in its non-conference schedule, and now opens Pac-12 Conference play vs. Arizona State.  It's true the Sun Devils are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS this season.  But Arizona State has played a much more difficult schedule than Oregon, as the Sun Devils' two losses were to San Diego State and Texas Tech, both of which are unbeaten on the season.  We'll grab the double-digits with Arizona State, as ASU falls into an 89-38 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home dogs off 3 ATS losses.  Also, the Sun Devils are a super 25-8-1 ATS at home vs. foes that covered by 10+ points in their previous game, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS if ASA wasn't favored by 3+ points.  Take the Sun Devils.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Last week, we played on Mississippi State, and got the $$$ when it upset LSU, 37-7, as an 8-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Mississippi State, it's cashed just 25% on the road over the past 25 years off an upset win (including 0-5 ATS its last 5).  And NCAA teams are a woeful 0-13 ATS since 2005 off an upset win by more than 28 points, if they were a dog of more than 3 in that upset win, and they're now matched up against a conference foe off back to back wins.  Take Georgia.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Syracuse.  LSU was upset by Mississippi State, 37-7, as an 8.5-point favorite last week, while Syracuse won at home, 41-17, over Central Michigan.  But off their defeat -- where they failed to cover by 38.5 point -- I look for the LSU Tigers to rebound in a big way on Saturday evening.  Indeed, teams off an upset loss are an awesome 51-20 ATS in the regular season if they failed to cover the spread by 35 or more points in their previous game, and their opponent is off a home win.  The Tigers are also a super 13-4 ATS in non-conference games off a pointspread defeat by 14+ points, including 9-1 ATS at home.  Take LSU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs pulled a huge upset last week when they won at home, 20-17, as an 8-point underdog vs. Stanford.  That was also San Diego State's 2nd straight upset win, as they knocked off Arizona State on the road, 30-20, as a 3-point underdog the previous week.  Unfortunately for the Aztecs, road favorites tend to have a difficult time following an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) home dog, as they've covered just 36% since 1980.  Even worse:  Air Force is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS vs. conference foes off upset wins, while San Diego State is an awful 13-27 ATS off an upset win.  Take the Falcons + the points.  NCAA Underdog of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks + the points over the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns.  The Warhawks lost last year to their rival, 30-3, so they'll be looking for some payback on Saturday.  And, like many heated rivalries, the revenge-minded team in this series has gone 12-7 ATS, including 10-2 ATS as an underdog.  Even better:  the road team in this series is a perfect 15-0 ATS when not laying more than 4 points!  Finally, Monroe checks into this game off back to back losses.  But it's a sensational 20-5 ATS on the Conference road when it's lost its previous two games.  Take Monroe + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over TCU.  The Cowboys blew out Pittsburgh last week in the Steel City, 59-21.  And the game wasn't even that close, as Okie State was up 49-7 late in the 2nd quarter before calling off the dogs.  The Cowboys have now scored 59, 44, and 59 in their first three games this season.  They've also won by margins of 35, 37, and 38 points.  Not surprisingly, the Cowboys are a perfect 3-0 ATS.  They'll now take on a fellow Top 25 foe in Big 12 Conference rival TCU.  The Horned Frogs have lost the last two meetings to the Cowboys, and four of the five meetings since TCU joined the Conference in 2012.  Based on their season statistics-to-date, the Cowboys fall into several of my best systems, with records of 111-43, 84-26 and 94-22 ATS.  Additionally, Oklahoma State has been terrific following games in which it scored 50+ points, as it's 35-8 ATS since 1987, including 14-1 ATS if the Cowboys are in off back to back SU/ATS wins.  The Cowboys are also 44-25 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points.  Finally, TCU is 4-10 ATS its last 14 games, while Big 12 Conference teams are a poor 48-78 vs. foes off a win that average 44+ points per game on offense.  Take Oklahoma State.  Big 12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks plus the points over Central Michigan.  The Red Hawks lost their third straight game ATS last week when they were upset, 21-17, by Cincinnati.  But unlike their first three games (where they were favored), the Red Hawks are an underdog at CMU this Saturday.  And Miami's 10-2 ATS their last 12 as an underdog.  Even better:  Mid-American Conference road underdogs are 60-34 ATS on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  Take Miami.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Central Florida.  Both of these teams were off last week (and Central Florida actually hasn't played since August 31, due to the hurricanes).  Maryland comes in off impressive wins over Texas (51-41) and Towson (63-17), while the Knights triumphed in their initial game, 61-17, vs. Florida International.  Last season, these two teams met in Orlando, and the Terps won, 30-24.  I look for them to win again, as home favorites of -10 points or less (or PK) have covered 69.5% in the regular season since 1984 vs. non-conference foes. Additionally, Maryland is 28-13-1 ATS off back to back wins, when favored by more than 3 points.  And they also fall into 300-205, 84-26 and 187-89 ATS systems of mine.  Lay it.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michgian Eagles minus the points over Ohio.  The Eagles had last week off following their upset win at Rutgers in Week 2.  And they're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS on the season.  The Eagles have largely relied on their defense, which is giving up just 10 ppg on the season (Ohio, on the other hand, is giving up 24.67 ppg).  We'll lay the points with Eastern Michigan, as home teams that give up 10.5 or less points per game, are 67% ATS since 1990 at Game 3 forward, if they're undefeated both SU and ATS, and not laying 4+ points.  Take Eastern Michigan.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers to go 'over' the total, as it falls into 57-27 and 106-69 Totals Systems of mine.  The Over/Under line on this game opened at 42, but has dropped considerably since then as a majority of bettors seem to be looking for a low-scoring contest.  It's true that both defenses have played well this season (SF is giving up just 17.5 ppg, while the Rams are allowing 18 ppg).  But I look for a relatively high-scoring game on Thursday, as NFL games have gone 'over' the total 314-231 (57.6) if the defenses of both teams gave up, on average, less than 18.5 ppg, and the over/under line was less than 40 points.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over the Detroit Lions.  Last week, the Giants scored just three points in a 19-3 loss at Dallas, while Detrolt put up 35 points in an upset win vs. Arizona.  But I look for the Giants to bounce back at home, tonight, on Monday.  Indeed, losing teams off a straight-up loss, and an ATS defeat by 8+ points, have covered 68% when favored (or PK) vs. winning foes off a straight-up win.  Moreover, the Giants have cashed 67% as home favorites on Monday Night Football the past 34 seasons, while the Lions are an awful 27% the past 23 years on the road off an upset win, including 0-10 ATS if they covered the spread by more than 11 points in their previous game.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  Last week, the Ravens stunned the Bengals, 20-0.  Though that victory was no doubt impressive, the fact that the Houston Texans also embarrassed the Bengals at home, with a 13-9 victory this past Thursday, combined with the firing of Cincy's offensive coordinator, Ken Zampese on Friday, leads me to believe that Baltimore's victory was primarily a result of Cincy's internal problems.  Cleveland, meanwhile, lost by 3 points to the Steelers in Week 1, but covered the point spread.  And I look for the Browns to make it two straight covers in a row today.  It's true that the Ravens won and covered both meetings last season.  Unfortunately, home favorites off an upset division win have covered just 3 of 25 vs. revenge-minded division rivals not off an upset division win.  Take Cleveland.  NFL Division Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over New Mexico State, as the Trojans fall into 91-23, 165-92, 58-7 and 83-45 ATS Systems of mine.  Both Troy St. and New Mexico St. are 1-1 this season after posting wins last last week.  The Trojans blew out Alabama St, 34-7, at home, while the Aggies went on the road to upset their cross-state rival, New Mexico, 30-28.  Unfortunately for the Aggies, Sun Belt teams are 0-9 ATS in home conference games off an upset win, if they're getting more than 3 points vs. foes also off a win.  Additionally, the Aggies have been destroyed each of the last three years by Troy, and have lost by an average of 36 ppg.  Take the Trojans.  Conf. Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.