At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks minus the points over Cincinnati.  To say that Miami will be out for revenge tonight is a massive understatement.  That's because the Red Hawks have lost the last 11 meetings to the Bearcats.  But they were underdogs in each of those 11 games.  Indeed, the last time they were actually favored vs. Cincy was in 2005, and they blew them out, 44-16.  They're favored again this year, and I love Miami to register another blowout, as it falls into a 60-28 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, it's worth noting the Bearcats are a horrid 28-48-2 ATS since 1984 away from home when installed as an underdog vs. non-conference foes, while Miami's 6-0 ATS its last 6 when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Clemson.  The Cardinals and Tigers each recorded big wins last week.  Louisville outlasted North Carolina, 47-35, while Clemson defeated Auburn, 14-6.  Last year, the Tigers beat the Cardinals, 42-36, en route to a 14-0 Championship season.  And the Tigers are off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start this season.  But that sets up Clemson in a nasty situation on Saturday afternoon.  Since 1981, defending National Champs are a woeful 0-9 ATS away from home, if they're off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, unrested, and not favored by 7+ points.  That doesn't bode well for Clemson vs. Louisville.  And neither does the fact that it hasn't given up 7+ points in either of its first two games.  Indeed, since 1982, teams off back-to-back games where they didn't give up 7+ points, have covered just 9 of 48 road games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win by more than 7 points.  Take Louisville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats minus the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons and Wildcats are both 0-2 ATS on the season following upset losses by each team last week.  Northwestern was drilled 41-17, by Duke, while Bowling Green lost, 35-27, to South Dakota.  We'll lay the points with Northwestern, as favorites of -21+ points, off 21-point (or greater) upset losses, have covered over 65% of the time since 1983.  Take Northwestern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Tulsa, as Tulsa falls into a negative 46-102 ATS system of mine which plays against teams with poor defenses.  And the Golden Hurricane's defense has been a sieve so far this season, as it's given up over 50 ppg.  Unfortunately for Tulsa, teams off wins, that give up more than 43.3 ppg (at Game 3 forward), have covered just 31% since 1980 if they won their previous game.  Even worse:  Toledo's been one of the best home teams (ATS) in College Football over the years, as it's gone 53-35 ATS its last 88, including 14-2 ATS vs. non-winning teams off a straight-up win.  Finally, Toledo has cashed 73.6% vs. non-conference foes when priced as a favorite of 23 or less points.  Take Toledo.  NCAA Roadkill Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over LSU.  Mississippi State is averaging 53 ppg after winning (and covering) their first two games by 49-0 and 57-21 counts.   Off those two big wins, we'll grab the points with Miss State, as teams off back to back SU/ATS wins have cashed 66% since 1980 if they average 45+ ppg, are matched up against an opponent off a SU win, and aren't favored by more than 3 points.  Take Mississippi State.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Western Kentucky.  These two teams met in the Conference USA Championship game last season, and the Hilltoppers downed La Tech, 58-44.  But I look for the Bulldogs to get a measure of revenge on Saturday, as teams playing with revenge from a post-season defeat are 27-11 ATS when priced from -3.5 to +7.5 points.  Moreover, the Bulldogs were blown out at home last week, 57-21, by Mississippi State, while the Hilltoppers lost, 20-7, to Illinois.  But La Tech is a super 10-0 ATS off a home loss, if they're playing an opponent also off a defeat.  Take Louisiana Tech.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Middle Tennessee State, as Minnesota falls into a 112-35 ATS System of mine.  The Gophers are off to a 2-0 start this season, under 1st year coach PJ Fleck, following their blowout, upset win at Oregon State last week, 48-14 (as a 2.5-point underdog).  And this is the first time in over 60 years that a Gophers squad has started 2-0 under a new head coach.  Minnesota has dominated all facets of the game, as they outgained the Beavers last week, 411 yards to 225, and Buffalo, 408-262 the week before that.  Now, Minnesota returns home for the last game on its non-conference slate.  And the Gophers have excelled at home vs. non-conference foes over the years, and especially when matched up against non-winning foes.  In that situation, Minnesota's 28-7 SU and 24-11 ATS.  In the Blue Raiders' last game, 3rd year-QB Brent Stockstill (son of Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill) sustained an injury to his left (throwing) shoulder, but remained in the contest through its conclusion.  He underwent an MRI earlier this week, but the results have not yet been made public.  I do expect him to play, but don't necessarily expect him to be at full strength, so that's a negative for Middle Tenn.  Moreover, even with Stockstill in the lineup, the Blue Raiders' offense has underwhelmed this season.  Middle Tennessee is averaging just 18 ppg, on just 289 yards of offense.  In contrast, Minnesota is averaging 32.5 ppg, on 409.5 yards per game.   It also doesn't hurt that coach Fleck has experience vs. this Stockstill-led Middle Tennessee squad, as his former team (Western Michigan) defeated Middle Tenn., 45-31, two seasons ago in the Bahamas Bowl.  Finally, Conference USA teams are poor 8-41 SU and 18-31 ATS in the regular season vs. Big 10 Conference foes.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  HIGH ROLLER WINNER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over UCLA.  The Bruins are 2-0 on the season, after crushing Hawaii, 56-23.  That was UCLA's 2nd straight home game.  The Bruins will take to the road for the first time this season, and they'll have the disadvantage of facing a well-rested Tigers squad, which was off last week after routing Louisiana-Monroe, 37-29, in their first game.  I look for the Tigers to register an upset, as UCLA's a wallet-busting 14-34-1 ATS away from home off back to back wins, including 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  And it's 0-9 ATS its last 9 after scoring more than 35 points in a SU/ATS Win the previous week.  Additionally, the Tigers fall into a 17-0 ATS system of mine, based on their performance in their first game.  Take Memphis + the points.  NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State, as UNM falls into 195-134, 103-37 and 124-45 ATS Systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 195-134 ATS angle.  That plays on road underdogs, priced from +3.5 to +17.5 points in conference games, off upset home losses, that have a win percentage of .333 (or better).  Last week, New Mexico fell to 1-1 on the season when it lost at home, 30-28, to New Mexico State, as a 7.5-point favorite.  But I love the Lobos to bounce back tonight, as they're 35-17-2 ATS off a home loss, including 10-1 ATS if they were upset in that previous home defeat.  Even better:  Boise's an awful 5-24 ATS its last 29 at home when laying 11+ points.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over New York.  The Cowboys received welcome news when they learned that RB Ezekiel Elliott will be available for this key divisional contest vs. the Giants.  And that was a key factor for me to pull the trigger on Dallas in this opener.  It's true that the Giants upset the Cowboys in both meetings last season, to hand Dallas two of its three regular season losses.  And it's also true that the Giants have won three straight in this series, overall.  But NFC East division teams playing with revenge from 3+ losses to division rivals have gone 105-84-3 ATS since 1981, including 59-45-1 ATS at home.  That bodes well for Jason Garrett's men on Sunday night.  Even better:  teams that won more than 10 games the previous season, and playing with revenge, have cashed 71% at home in Week 1 over the past 30 seasons, including 88% vs. division foes.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Indianapolis.  It may seem strange that the Rams -- a team wich won just four games last season -- has been installed as a big favorite.  But the Colts will be missing several key offensive players in this season opener.  Chief among them, of course, is QB Andrew Luck.  But Chester Rogers, Erik Swoope, Ryan Kelly and Ian Silberman are also injured.  Frankly, I believe the Rams should be favored by even more points than they are.  So, we'll lay the points with Los Angeles, as they also fall into my very best opening week angle, which is 34-12 ATS its last 46.  Take the Rams.

Our selection is on Tennessee. (Analysis to follow.)

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Baltimore.  The Bengals suffered through a miserable 6-9-1 season in 2016, after winning the AFC North division in 2015.  But I love the Bengals to bounce back this season.  And they should get the 2017 campaign off on the right foot, as they've won five straight home meetings vs. Baltimore, while the home team in this series is 17-6 SU and 14-8-1 ATS the last 23 meetings.  Even better:  the Bengals are 23-12-2 ATS as favorites of -3+ points in the regular season, and they also fall into an opening week angle of mine which is 40-22 ATS since 1980.  Take Cincinnati.

Our selection is on Arizona St.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over South Carolina.  Last year, the Missouri Tigers suffered through a 4-8 season -- their first year under coach Barry Odom.  But Mizzou got Odom's sophomore campaign off on the right foot, as it blew out Missouri State, 72-43, last week.  In that game, Drew Lock compiled record numbers for a Missouri QB, as he threw for 521 yards and seven touchdowns, besting the previous marks of 480 yards and five TDs.  Now, Missouri will welcome fellow SEC foe South Carolina to Columbia, and the Tigers have been installed as a small favorite.  Like  Missouri, the Gamecocks won their opener, in upset fashion over the NC State Wolfpack.  Unfortunately for South Carolina, since 1980, single-digit road underdogs are an awful 23-39 ATS vs. conference foes that scored 60+ in their previous game, including 0-7 ATS if our road dog was off an upset win.  That doesn't bode well for South Carolina this Saturday evening.  And neither does the fact that South Carolina is an awful 4-9 ATS off an upset win, including 0-5 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.  Finally, SEC Conference teams are a poor 21.4% ATS since 1980 off an upset win over a non-conference foe, if they're matched up against a rival SEC Conference foe playing with revenge.  With Missouri indeed playing with revenge from a 10-point loss to the Gamecocks last season, we'll lay the points with the Tigers.  Take Missouri.  NCAA Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our selection is on SMU.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 6 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Marshall.  NC State was stunned last week when it was upset, 35-28, as a 7.5-point favorite by South Carolina, while Marshall pulled an upset of its own against Miami-Ohio.  The good news for NC State is that it generally rebounds at home off losses, as it's 48-34 ATS, including 18-6 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  More good news:  since 1997, College Football teams off season-opening upset losses have cashed 83% vs. foes off season-opening upset wins!  Last year, for example, Mississippi State rebounded off its Week 1 loss to South Alabama (as a 27.5-point favorite) to blow out South Carolina, which had upset Vanderbilt to open its season the week before.  Finally, since 1996, Conference USA road underdogs off a SU/ATS win have cashed just 30.7% vs. non-conference foes.  I look for the Wolfpack to bounce back BIG on this Saturday.  Take North Carolina State.  NCAA Football Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Army Black Knights minus the points over Buffalo.  Last year, Army went into Buffalo, and was upset, 23-20, as a 13.5-point favorite.  I look for the Black Knights to avenge that defeat, as they fall into 153-53 and 295-201 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, since 1980, .500 (or better) teams that lost the previous meeting on the road as a 10-point (or greater favorite), have cashed 80% vs. non-conference foes off a loss.  Take Army.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our selection is on Duke.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 7:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have long been a much better pointspread team at home than away from College Station.  And, perhaps, their worst pointspread role is as an underdog away from home when they're not off back to back losses.  Since November 1999, they're a horrid 8-37 ATS, including 0-17 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +8 points.  Yikes!  That doesn't bode well for A&M on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that they defeated the Bruins in College Station last season, 31-24.  The Bruins are a solid 57% ATS when playing with revenge and favored by 4+ points.  And they're an awesome 30-10 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes over the past 37 seasons when not laying 14+ points (and 9-1 ATS their last 10).  Take UCLA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders + the points over Vanderbilt.  It's hard to have confidence in a Vandy squad installed as a road favorite in its season opener, given that the Commies have lost five straight season openers (by an average of 8.6 ppg) -- and they were favored in two of those five games.  Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has won its last four openers, by an average of 46.5 ppg.  The Blue Raiders certainly hope that the "3rd time will be the charm" on Saturday.  And that's because they've lost the past two seasons to the Commodores.  Last year, the game was played in Nashville, and Vandy won 47-24, as a 3-point favorite.  But that score was somewhat misleading, as the Blue Raiders, behind the arm of Brent Stockstill (the coach's son), actually out-yarded Vanderbilt, 495 to 344.  But they lost the turnover battle, and also killed themselves with penalties.  I love Middle Tennessee to avenge that loss and upset the Commodores on Saturday, as they fall into 38-18 and 80-43 ATS systems of mine.  Take Middle Tennessee St.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Southern Mississippi.  Both of these teams went 7-6 last season.  But the Wildcats will be the much better team this season, as they're returning 17 starters, while Southern Miss only returns 12.  Kentucky has been installed as a double-digit road favorite in this season opener for both teams.  And that doesn't bode well for the Golden Eagles, as double-digit home dogs are an awful 61-84, 42% ATS, in season openers, including 36% ATS if they had a winning record the previous season.  These two teams also met in the season opener last year.  That game was played at Kentucky, but Southern Miss upset the Wildcats, 44-35, as a 3.5-point underdog.  I look for Kentucky to avenge that upset loss, as they fall into 55-14 and 59-30 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, the Golden Eagles are an awful 3-10 ATS as home underdogs, priced from +7 to +20, while Kentucky is 30-2 straight-up, and 20-12 ATS when favored by 8+ points.  Finally, since 1990, teams from major conferences (like the SEC) have cashed 58% when playing with revenge vs. foes from minor conferences (like Conference USA), provided our revenger isn't getting 14+ points.  Lay the points with Kentucky.  NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over the Colorado Buffaloes.  We cashed our NCAA Game of the Week on Colorado State -3.5 over Oregon State last Saturday, as CSU blew out the Beavers, 58-27.  They'll have a big advantage vs. their cross-state rival, Colorado, as the Buffaloes won't have had any games yet this season to work out any kinks.  Indeed, over the past 35 years, teams playing their first game have covered just 41% vs. foes that covered the point spread by 7+ points in their season opener the previous week.  Even better:  if our team playing its season opener is priced from -3 to -14.5 points, then our angle zooms from 59% to 83% (and 89% if our 'play-on' team (here, Colorado State), is playing with revenge).  Speaking of revenge, it's not surprising that this "Centennial State" rivalry has seen the revenge-minded team generally get the cash.  These teams have met every season for the past 22 years, and the team that lost the previous year has gone 15-5-1 ATS, including 8-0-1 ATS when priced from -3 to +6.5 points!  With the Rams playing with revenge from a 44-7 loss last season, we'll pull the trigger on the underdog, and grab the points with Colorado State.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Central Florida.  Last year, these two teams met in Miami, and UCF blew out the Panthers, 53-14.  And that continued the trend in this Sunshine State rivalry where the road team has not covered in of the last four seasons.  This game will be played in Orlando, and I look for Florida International to avenge that loss here, as road teams playing with revenge from a game in which they gave up 50+ points have cashed 67% over the past 23 seasons in their season opener.  Even worse:  Central Florida is a wallet-busting 27% ATS since 1999 when priced between -7.5 and -23 points vs. a foe playing with revenge.  Finally, over the past nine years, road dogs have cashed a staggering 72.2% of the time vs. non-conference foes when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 30 points (including 80% ATS if their opponent scored 50+ points in the previous year's meeting)!   Take Florida International + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Month for August.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over Oregon State.  The Rams ended the 2016 regular season on a 7-game ATS win streak (before getting upset by Idaho in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 61-50).  I look for Colorado State to cover the pointspread for their eighth straight regular season game in this, their home opener of 2017.  Indeed, the Rams are a perfect 4-0 ATS their last four lined home openers, and they're 9-1 ATS their last 10 home games vs. non-conference foes (and 18-7 ATS their last 25).  Meanwhile, the Beavers are a wallet-busting 9-19 ATS on the road vs. non-conference opposition.  Finally, Oregon State has lost its last 13 road games, straight-up, which doesn't bode well for covering the pointspread here, given the relatively short number.  Take Colorado State.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday Feb. 5, our selection is on the New England Patriots over the Atlanta Falcons.  We played on the Patriots vs. the Steelers as our NFL Game of the Year, and that play was largely motivated by New England's vastly superior defense (it was 4.08 ppg better than the Steelers' defense).  Well, here, the gap between the Patriots' defense and the Falcons' defense is much larger than that.  New England's given up just 15.72 ppg, while Atlanta's surrendered an ungodly (for a Playoff team) 24.83 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta, as underdogs have covered just 3 of 15 Super Bowls since 1984 if matched up against a foe whose defense gives up less than 16.32 ppg.  And, yes, it's absolutely true that the Falcons have a fantastic offense.  They put up 44 points in their last game, and have scored 33+ points in each of their past six games, and average 34.44 ppg on the season.  Unfortunately for the Falcons, teams off a Playoff win, in which they scored more than 40 points, have gone 0-13 ATS if they also scored more than 100 points in their three previous games, and give up, on defense, at least 15 ppg.  It's often said that 'defense wins championships.'  And that's because we've seen great offenses flounder countless times on the biggest stage.  Indeed, there have been four teams that averaged at least 32.7 ppg to make the Super Bowl, and none has won or covered its game, or even scored 17+ points!  The Redskins lost 38-9 to Oakland; Dan Marino's Dolphins fell, 38-16, to the 49ers; the undefeated, 18-0, Patriots lost 17-14 to the Giants; and Peyton Manning's Broncos (arguably the best offense, ever) lost 43-8 to Seattle.  Combined, those 4 offensive juggernauts failed to cover the spread by an average of 20.6 ppg in the Super Bowl!  New England's now won nine straight games (8-1 ATS), and has given up more than 17 points just once (vs. Baltimore) in those nine games!  But even that game vs. the Ravens, in which New England gave up 23 points, must be assigned an asterisk, as 14 of the Ravens' 23 points were gifted to them on the heels of two fumbles by Patriot kick returners.  Until those two fumbles -- on back to back kickoffs -- the Pats had a 23-3 lead.  Baltimore's offense had been completely shut down by New England, so, without those two gaffes, Baltimore likely would have had just 3 points thru three quarters.  Finally -- and this is not a knock on Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan -- there's just not a better coaching staff in football than the Patriots' staff (HC Bill Belichick, OC Josh McDaniels, DC Matt Patricia).  And if you give Belichick & Co. an extra week to prepare, then you can rest assured they'll have a great game plan in place.  To wit:  New England's 27-9 SU when working with an extra week under Belichick, including 8-3-1 ATS its last 12 when not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Patriots.  NFL Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/New England game.  We played on the 'over' in the Patriots/Texans game, and were rewarded with a 34-16 New England win.  That high-scoring game extended New England's 'over' run to 78-49 its last 127, and 8-2-1 at home in the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have generally been an 'over' team in the Playoffs.  Since 1983, Pittsburgh's gone 'over' 27-12-1, including 10-1 'over' if its opponent's defensive ppg was less than 16.36.  New England, of course, is giving up just 15.64 ppg this season, but teams that give up less than 16 ppg have gone 'over' 57% in the Playoffs the past 37 years (and 67% if the O/U line was 46+ points).  The 'over' falls into 60-29, 37-14 and 50-24 Totals Systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Patriots are a better team across the board.  They own the better offense (27.94 ppg vs 24.83 ppg), better defense (15.64 vs. 19.72), better win percentage (.882 vs. .722), better pointspread differential (5.17 vs. 1.05), better pointspread win percentage (.823 vs. .611).  They're also playing at home, and have been installed as a mid-sized favorite.  In the Playoffs, when you get a team (like Pittsburgh) playing away from home against an opponent which is superior in every single one of these categories, it's not very surprising to learn that our inferior teams don't do very well.  Of course, certain of our statistics bear more importance than others at this stage of the Playoffs.  And one of the things I love to do in the Conference Championship round is play on the teams that own the better defense.  Here, of course, that's New England.  The Patriots have given up just 15.64 ppg this season, and that rates 4.08 ppg better than the Steelers' defense.  And in the Conference Championship round, teams with a defensive ppg at least 1 point better than their opponent's defensive ppg, have cashed 100% (10-0 ATS) at home when priced from -2.5 to -6.5 points.   New England's 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in the Playoffs since 2012.  And it's 10-3-1 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in the last 14 meetings (as well as 4-0 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in the last four post-season meetings).  Finally, road underdogs priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points are a dismal 6-17 ATS in the Conference Championship round if they pulled an upset win in the quarterfinals.   Take New England.  NFL Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Pittsburgh.  This is a very difficult situation for the Steelers, who will be playing their first road game after three straight home games.  And NFL road underdogs have gone 0-11 ATS since 1981 off a home playoff win, if they also were at home in their two games previous to that.  Even worse for the Steelers:  they blew out Kansas City 43-14 in early October.  But the Chiefs are a super 20-10 ATS at home their last 30 when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-0 ATS vs. .715 (or worse) foes off a win.  Take Kansas City.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Dallas/Green Bay game.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Houston Texans to go 'over' the total.  The Houston Texans score just 18.00 ppg, and give up just 20.11 (for 38.11 combined points per game).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game.  But NFL underdogs have gone 'over' in 24 of 32 Playoff games, if their games, on average, generated less than 39.3 ppg.  And teams that average less than 20 points on offense have gone 'over' in seven straight playoff games.  Additionally, six of the last eight meetings between these two franchises have gone 'over' the total.  And New England has gone 'over' in 77 of its last 126 games, including 7-2-1 'under' at home in the playoffs.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Atlanta lost a 26-24 heartbreaker to the Seahawks earlier this year, when Steven Hauschka kicked the game-winner with 1:57 left to cap a 4th quarter rally which saw Seattle outscore the Falcons, 9-0, in the final frame.  But NFL teams, with a win percentage between .600 and .750, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, have cashed 45 of 65 Playoff games, including a perfect 14-0 ATS if they lost by 3 points or less in that earlier game.  Also, Seattle falls into negative 27-75 and 38-88 ATS systems of mine, based on its relatively poor offensive stats.  To wit:  Atlanta's offense has been 11.39 ppg better than Seattle's this season!  And home teams with a much better offense (at least +3.0 ppg) have covered 62% in the Playoffs when not laying more than 7 points.  Take Atlanta.  NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Jan. 9, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 4:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over New York.  Interestingly, these two teams have met seven times since 2008.  In the five regular season meetings, the home team covered all five, but in the two Playoff games, it was the road team (and both times, the New York Giants) that got the cash.  Still, I’m going to back the homestanding Packers in this game.  The Giants are in a horrid situation, as they will be playing their third straight road game, after having to play Philly and Washington away from home in the final two weeks of the regular season.  Unfortunately for New York, teams that ended their regular season with back-to-back road games have been awful on the road in their initial playoff game.  Since 1984, they’ve gone 3-14 straight-up, and have covered just four of those 17 games.  That’s one reason I’m going to fade New York.  Another is that it upset Washington, as a 9.5-point underdog.  And teams off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog in their final regular season game have covered just one of eight Playoff games over the past 30 years.   Finally, Green Bay is 87-57-4 in Aaron Rodgers’ career starts, including 26-8-1 ATS when priced between -3.5 and -6.5 points.  And while it’s easy to focus on the fact that the Eli Manning and the Giants upset the Packers in the Playoffs in 2012, Green Bay has still gone 8-4- ATS in the Playoffs with Rodgers, including 7-1-1, 88% ATS vs. a foe off a pointspread win.  Take Green Bay.  NFL Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Earlier this year, Miami upset Pittsburgh, 30-15, as a 7-point underdog.  We had a huge play on Miami in that game, so the result didn't surprise us.  But we'll lay the points with Pittsburgh here, in this revenge spot.  The Dolphins, of course, are down to their 2nd string QB after Ryan Tannehill sustained ACL and MCL sprains last month vs. Arizona.  Miami's offense wasn't very good to begin with (it only scores 22.7 ppg).  Certainly, that's problematic.  But even more so because Miami's defense is below average, and gives up 23.7 ppg.  So, it won't be able to keep this game within reach should Miami's offense falter.  For technical support, consider that, since 1980, NFL favorites of -8 or more points, playing with revenge, have gone 15-0 ATS if their opponent's offensive scoring average was less than 23.7 ppg.  Also, Pittsburgh has cashed its last 5 Playoff games when playing with revenge, while Miami has gone 0-9 SU/ATS in the Playoffs as a dog of more than 2 points vs. .600 (or better) foes.  Take the Steelers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Seattle.  Detroit has failed to cover its last three games.  But NFL teams off 3 ATS losses to end the regular season have cashed 65.5% in the Playoffs the past 37 years!  With the pointspread up significantly from the opener, we'll grab the points with Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Oakland Raiders.  The Texans were 9-7 on the season, and outscored by 49 points over the course of the season (-3.06 ppg), yet are the decided favorite against the 12-4 Raiders, who outscored their foes by 31 points this season (+1.94 ppg).  Obviously, it's because of Oakland's quarterback situation.  But the Texans shouldn't have to apologize for not having to face Derek Carr.  After all, last season, the Texans had to go into the Playoffs with Bobby Hoyer as their starting QB.  And he doomed Houston by throwing four interceptions.  And this season, they've been without J.J. Watt, their best player, since Week 3, when he suffered a herniated disk in his back.  So, even though the Texans have a relative scoring margin of -5.0 ppg compared to Oakland, we'll lay the points on Saturday.  And that's because teams favored by 3 or more points, off a loss in their last regular season game, have gone 8-0, 100% ATS in the Playoffs since 1980 if they owned a relative scoring margin of -1.38 ppg (or worse) to their foe.  Additionally, the Texans lost, 27-20, at home to Oakland in November.  But Houston falls into a 34-15 ATS revenge system of mine.  Finally, Houston's performed very well in the role of a favorite, as it's cashed 14 of its last 19.  Lay the points.  NFL Wild Card Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, January 2nd, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers over Oklahoma, as Auburn falls into several of my best Bowl systems, with records of 85-34, 71-31, 44-15 and 60-35 ATS.  There are several reasons why I love Auburn in this game, but perhaps the most important is Auburn's stellar defense.  It's allowed just 15.6 ppg against opponents that average 28.1 ppg!  In contrast, Oklahoma has allowed 29.7 ppg (against opponents that average 32.9 ppg).  Thus, Auburn's defense has held its foes to 55.5% of their point production while Oklahoma's stop unit has only held its foes to 90.2% of their offensive production.  That's a huge difference.  Indeed, College Bowl teams have cashed 77% over the past 20 seasons if their defense surrendered, on average, at least 10 less points than their foe, and they weren't favored by 6+ points in the game (including a perfect 12-0-1 ATS the last 12).  Even worse for the Sooners:  Big 12 Conference teams have covered just 6 of their last 29 Bowl games vs. SEC Conference foes, including 0-8 ATS since 2007 if the Big 12 Conference team's defense gave up 25+ ppg!  Take Auburn.  NCAA Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over the Iowa Hawkeyes.  The Big 10 was thought by many to be the best conference in College Football this season, but its member schools have not played well in the post-season.  They've gone 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS, with its two best teams -- Michigan and Ohio State -- both suffering upset losses.  The Big 10 has also underperformed vs. the SEC in Bowl games, and especially in this price range.  Since 1989, the Big 10 has gone 9-18 SU/ATS when priced from PK to +4 in the Bowls vs. the SEC.  It's true that the Iowa Hawkeyes are on a 3-game win streak, while the Gators have dropped their last two (including a 54-16 loss to #1 Alabama in the SEC Title Game).  And that may lead many bettors to plunk down money on Iowa at the betting window.  But in the post-season, teams off 3+ wins have actually cashed just 18 of 49 games vs. opponents off back to back losses (and just one of eight (12%) against foes with a great defense which gives up less than 18 ppg)!  And Florida's also an awesome 63.3% over the past 21 seasons vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  For the Detroit Lions franchise, which hasn't won a division title since 1993, this is the biggest regular season game in more than a generation.  Unless the Redskins lose to the Giants earlier in the day, the loser of this game will miss the Playoffs, while the winner will claim the division crown.  Certainly, the Packers are playing better football.  They've won five straight, including road wins at Chicago and Philadelphia.  But the Eagles are 6-9, while Chicago is 3-12.  And the Packers' only other road win this season came against the 3-12 Jaguars.  Detroit, though, has a winning record, at 9-6.  And the Packers have lost all four road games this season vs. opponents with a .466 (or better) record (Vikings, Falcons, Titans, Redskins).  And Green Bay's lost those four games by an average of 11 ppg.  It's true that Detroit lost its last two games -- 17-6 at New York, and 42-21 at Dallas.  But those two games were on the road.  At home, in Ford Field, the Lions have been dominant, and come into this contest on a 6-game home win streak (4-1-1 ATS).  And winning home teams, off back to back road losses, have covered 64 of 98 dating back to 1981.  Also, Detroit falls into a 31-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off losses, in which they gave up 40+ points.  Before surrendering 42 to Dallas, the Lions' defense had not given up 21+ points in eight consecutive games.  It should rise to the occasion again, here, at home, in this critical game.  Take Detroit + the points.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Arizona.  We played on the Cardinals as an 8-point underdog last week, and they rewarded us with an outright win at Seattle.  But off that division upset, I look for a letdown on Sunday at Los Angeles.  And that's because .401 (or better) teams off an upset win the previous week as a 6-point (or greater) underdog generally do poorly against the spread.  And especially if they're favored against an opponent off a loss, as they're 86-43 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for the Cardinals:  teams favored on the road in their final game of the regular season, off an upset win, are 0-10 ATS since 1990 vs. an opponent off an ATS loss.  Finally, the Rams fall into a 71-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take Los Angeles.  NFC West Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Dallas.  We played on Dallas last Monday in its 42-21 win vs. Detroit.  But we'll switch gears, and go against the Cowboys in this, their final road game of the season.  Dallas has a 13-2 record, so this game is meaningless with respect to Playoff positioning.  The Cowboys have earned the #1 seed, and will enjoy home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.  But since 1990, NFL teams with a win percentage of .750 or better, have been horrid on the road in their final regular season game.  They've gone 9-21 straight-up and 7-22-1 ATS, including 1-7 ATS if our road team's W/L percentage was more than 40 percentage points greater than its opponent's W/L percentage.  Moreover, the Cowboys fall into a negative 15-52 ATS system of mine based on their high-scoring win last week.  Finally, road underdogs have covered just 21% over the past 36 seasons in their final game of the season, if they were working off a short week, due to playing on the previous Monday night.  Take Philly.  NFC East Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at quarterback for New York, and he had his best game of the season back in Week 2 vs. the Bills, when he threw for 374 yards in a 37-31 victory.  Meanwhile, E.J. Manuel will start under center for Buffalo, rather than Tyrod Taylor, as the Bills couldn’t risk a serious injury to Taylor, which would trigger a guaranteed 27.5 million dollar payment for next season.  Last week, we had a big play on New England over the Jets, and were rewarded with a 41-3 blowout win.  But we’ll jump on the Jets this week, as home underdogs (or PK) off a loss by 23 or more points have gone 183-114 ATS since 1980 if they’re playing an opponent with a win percentage better than .400, including 57-23 ATS if that opponent lost its game the previous week.   Finally, the underdog in this rivalry has gone 42-25 ATS, including 31-12 ATS if it had a worse won/loss record.  Take New York.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Ohio State.  At this stage of the season, it's not surprising when both teams have solid defenses.  And that's the case this evening.  Ohio State gives up just 14.2 ppg, while Clemson gives up a few more, but still a very respectable 18.4 ppg.  In Bowl games, it's dangerous to lay points in games between two very good defensive teams, as favorites -- not playing on their home field -- have covered just 31% of the time over the past 19 seasons in games between teams that each give up less than 18.5 ppg.  Additionally, Clemson's a perfect 9-0 ATS its last nine games away from home when playing an opponent which gives up less than 17.5 ppg.  Take the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 11 am, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Georgia Tech.  The Wildcats opened the season with three straight pointspread defeats.  But they got into the win column in Vegas with a 17-10 victory, as a 2-point favorite, vs. South Carolina in Week 4.  And that started a terrific run through the end of the season which saw them go 7-1 ATS vs. Division 1 schools, with their only pointspread defeat by a mere half-point vs. Georgia.  I definitely won't step in front of Kentucky, as an underdog, here.  And especially since they stunned Louisville as a 28.5-point underdog in their last game.  For technical support, consider that teams that won outright as underdogs of more than 14 points in their final regular season game have cashed 73.3% in the Bowls over the past 19 seasons (including Southern Miss, two weeks ago, in this season's New Orleans Bowl).  Take Kentucky.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over LSU.  It's true that Lamar Jackson & Co. stumbled badly down the stretch.  Louisville lost its last two games -- 36-10 at Houston, and 41-38, at home, vs. rival Kentucky.  We had one of our biggest plays of the season on Houston +17.5 against Louisville, so that game didn't really surprise me.  But even though we didn't play the game, the Cardinals' loss to Kentucky, as a 28.5-favorite, certainly did raise my eyebrows.  However, if there's one thing I've learned about College Bowl games, it is that teams that stumble down the stretch often bounce back in the Bowls.  Indeed, Bowl underdogs off back to back upset losses have covered 64.7% over the past 37 years.  Take Louisville.  Even better, underdogs of +3 or more points, off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 21+ points, have covered 84.6% in Bowl games over the past 13 seasons vs. foes off a SU/ATS win (including 2-0 already this season with North Texas and South Carolina getting the $$$).  Take Louisville.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Florida State.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over Air Force.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Tennessee.  The line has reached double-digits (due to Nebraska's QB issues), but we'll still pull the trigger on the underdog Huskers, as it's tough to turn down this amount of points in a bowl game.  And especially when our team has the vastly superior defense (Nebraska gives up 22.7 ppg against opponents that averaged 28.2; Tennessee 29.2 ppg against opponents that averaged 26.6).  Indeed, Nebraska falls into 28-5 and 34-8 ATS systems of mine that play on certain underdogs with good defenses.  Take the Cornhuskers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Stanford.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Virginia Tech.  Both teams lost their last game of the season.  The Hokies lost by 7, as a double-digit underdog vs. Clemson, while Arkansas fell, 28-24, at Missouri, as a 7.5-point road favorite.  I look for the Razorbacks to get the $$$ on Thursday, as College teams off an upset road loss have covered 71% since 1981 as underdogs in the post-season against foes not off a pointspread defeat.  Additionally, the Razorbacks are 9-0 ATS their last nine games off an upset loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a loss.  Take Arkansas.  NCAA High Roller!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over South Florida.  The Bulls lost their head coach, Willie Taggart, to the University of Oregon, so co-offensive coordinator T.J. Wiest will serve as the head coach for this ballgame.  Other Bowl schools that saw their coaches depart this month include Houston (Tom Herman) and Temple (Matt Rhule), and both Houston and Temple lost outright as favorites in their bowl game.  Don't be surprised if South Florida does, as well.  Meanwhile, South Carolina was able to win four of its final six games to reach the .500 mark, at 6-6.  And, as I mentioned yesterday in our discussion of the Indiana/Utah game, College Football teams have done terrific in the Bowls if they didn't own a winning record.  Dating back to 2002, our non-winning bowl teams have cashed 67.2% vs. winning opposition, including 7-1 ATS this season, and 34-13 ATS as an underdog of +10 or less points.  Take the Gamecocks + the points.  NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies minus the points over Kansas State.  The Wildcats upset TCU, 30-6, as a 4-point road underdog to end their season, while Texas A&M lost its last game, 54-39, at home vs. LSU.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats, underdogs off an upset win away from home have burned money in the post-season against foes off a loss by 6+ points.  Since 1980, our dogs have cashed just 28% of the time.  Additionally, the Aggies will have the benefit of the home crowd on Wednesday night, as NRG Stadium is a mere 90 minutes distance from College Station.  Take Texas A&M.  NCAA Favorite of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Utah.  The Hoosiers enter today's game with a 6-6 record, while Utah is 8-4.  And with the proliferation of Bowl games, we're increasingly seeing teams without winning records get invitations to play in these games.  At first, I thought it was sort of ridiculous to have non-winning teams get awarded a Bowl bid.  But then I decided to just make $$$ off of it, and it wasn't too surprising to see these bad teams do extremely well at the betting window.  Of course there could be several reasons why this happens, but perhaps the most simple is also the most accurate:  these teams just want to prove they're deserving of being in the game.  Dating back to 2002, our non-winning bowl teams have cashed 66% vs. winning opposition, including 5-1 ATS this season, and 32-13 ATS as an underdog of +10 or less points.  Even worse for Utah:  it's an awful 21-48 ATS since 1994 when priced from -3 to -9.5 points, including 8-24 ATS away from home.  Take Indiana.  NCAA Football High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Miami.  We played against WVU in its last regular season game.  The Mountaineers were favored by 17 vs. Baylor, but won by just three points, and failed to cover by 14 points.  Meanwhile, Miami cashed its last regular season game with a 40-21 blowout of Duke, as a 16-point favorite.  But teams off ATS wins in their most recent game have covered just 41% in the Bowls over the past 36 years, if they're matched up against an opponent which failed to cover by 14+ points in its previous game.  These two schools actually have a long history vs. one another -- mainly when both were members of the Big East Conference.  They've met 13 times over the previous 25 seasons, and the underdog has covered 10 of 13.  Finally, Miami falls into negative 79-130 and 20-51 ATS systems of mine that play against certain Bowl teams off a double-digit win.  Take the Mountaineers.  NCAA Football Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Washington State.  The dominant storyline, of course, for this game is the suspension of the Minnesota players.  This happens to at least one team every Bowl season, and it's been my perception that the teams with the suspended player(s) rally together, and cover the pointspread more often than not.  For example, in the Alamo Bowl last year, TCU played without QB Trevone Boykin, who was suspended for punching a policeman.  The pointspread was severely adjusted due to his absence, but TCU didn't end up even needing the points, as back-up QB Bram Kohlhausen was spectacular (351 yds, 4 TDs) in leading the Frogs to an upset win.  Similarly, the pointspread on this game was adjusted following the suspensions, and I'm more than happy to take the points with the Gophers.  Washington State dropped its final two games of the season (at Colorado, and at home to Washington).  But since 1984, favorites with a .600 (or better) record are a woeful 6-24 ATS off back to back losses to end their regular season, including 0-7 ATS when favored by more than 7 points.  Take Minnesota.  NCAA Football Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Temple.  It's true that Temple has a stellar season.  The Owls were 10-3 straight-up, compared to Wake Forest's 6-6 record.  But Temple head coach Matt Rhule left to take the same position at Baylor.  That distraction will hurt the Owls in today's game.  Additionally, the Demon Deacons lost their last three games of the season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Wake Forest today.  But NCAA Football teams on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak have gone 65.2% ATS in the post-season since 1980 when getting more than 3 points.  Take Wake Forest.  College Football Underdog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Army.  These two teams met earlier this season, and North Texas won handily, 35-18, as 17.5-point underdogs.  And that game was played at Army.  This afternoon's game will be played in Dallas, just a stone's throw away from North Texas' campus in Denton.  We'll grab the double-digits with North Texas, as College Football teams (like Army) with a .900 (or worse) record are an awful 36-57 ATS when favored by 10+ points in the post-season.  Take North Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Detroit, as the Lions fall into negative 13-58 and 56-109 ATS systems of mine.  Even worse for Detroit:  last week, the Lions lost 17-6 to the New York Giants, while Dallas defeated Tampa Bay, 26-20.  And winning teams (like Dallas), priced from -3 to -12 points, have cashed 17 straight games at home on Monday Night Football vs. non-division foes, if such foe lost its previous game by 7+ points.  Take the Cowboys. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, on Monday, our selection is on the Miami Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Mississippi State.  Miss State comes into this game off a 35-point upset win over their rival, Ole Miss.  But that shocking win only raised Miss State's record to a woeful 5-7 on the season.  So, the Bulldogs, along with Hawaii, were one of the two teams to make a Bowl game with a losing record.  But, unlike Hawaii (on which we played on Saturday), Mississippi State has been installed as a big favorite.  But teams favored by 7+ points in a Bowl game have covered a paltry 40.0% over the past 37 years when matched up against an opponent with a superior record, including 0-2 already this season (Colo State, Louisiana Tech).  That doesn't bode well for the Bulldogs on Monday morning.  And neither does the fact that College Football teams, off a cover by 10+ points, are 37% ATS as Double-Digit Bowl Favorites since 1999.   Take Miami-Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the KC/Denver game.  Neither one of these two teams has been playing high-scoring games, of late.  The Broncos have gone 'under' in three straight, including 13-10 and 16-3 losses the past two weeks to Tennessee and New England, respectively.  And KC checks in off 'unders' in eight of 10 games, including their last two, a 21-13 win over Oakland, and a 19-17 upset loss to Tennessee.  But I look for a much higher scoring game tonight, as NFL games with O/U lines less than 40 points have gone 'over' the total 60.4% of the time if both teams come in off back to back games that didn't generate 37+ points.  Take the 'over.'  AFC Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Middle Tennessee State.  This game will be played in Honolulu, at Aloha Field, so the Warriors will enjoy the home field advantage.  And it's tough to go against a team playing at home in a bowl game, and especially if wasn't an awful team against the spread during the season (and Hawaii was not).  Indeed, teams playing at home, with a .400 (or better) ATS season win percentage, have gone 8-0 ATS in the Bowls when getting more than 3 points, and have covered by an average of 13.44 ppg.  Take Hawaii.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game, as it falls into a 160-101 Totals system of mine.  These two teams met just 13 days ago, and the Bucs won, 16-11, at home.  That game sailed 'under' the total by 25 points, and I look for another low-scoring game on Saturday, notwithstanding the fact that each was just involved in high-scoring games last week.  The Bucs come into this game off a 26-20 loss at Dallas, while New Orleans defeated Arizona, 48-41.  But teams (like New Orleans) that were involved in a game which produced more than 85 points have gone 'under' the total 64% since 1980 if their opponent's previous game generated more than 45 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Last week, the Seahawks demolished Los Angeles, 24-3, as a 15.5-point favorite, while Arizona lost, 48-41, at home to New Orleans.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Arizona on the road, given that it's off back to back SU/ATS losses, and Seattle's off a 21-point win.  But consider that the Seahawks are a miserable 15-42 ATS off a win by 21+ points if they weren't favored by more than 10 points in their current game.  Moreover, teams (like Arizona) that lost a game in which they scored 37+ points, have rebounded to go 31-10 ATS in their next game, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +6 to +10 points.  Take the Cardinals.  NFL Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Atlanta/Carolina game.  These two teams met earlier this season.  Atlanta led 17-10 at the half, but the two teams combined for 54 second-half points to send it 'over' the total.  But prior to that game, these two teams had played six straight 'unders' against each other, and I look for a return to form on this Sunday.  it's true that the Falcons have played all but 2 of their games 'over' the total this season (including their last four in a row).  But this history sets up our play, as teams off 4+ 'overs' have gone 'under' in 18 straight games vs. division rivals, if they weren't favored by more than 7 points, and the O/U line was > 50.5 points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into 65-31, 186-131, 93-53 and 29-6 Totals systems of mine.  Finally, Carolina has gone 'under' 44-25-2 at home vs. division rivals.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the San Diego Chargers.  Admittedly, the Browns are a very bad football team.  But this is still a great situation to take the points with Cleveland as a home underdog.  It's Cleveland's final home game, after all.  And bad NFL teams -- with win percentages less than .400 — are actually very good bets in their final home game.  Since 1998, they've gone 98-74 ATS, including 40-17 ATS vs. other bad teams with win percentages less than .430 (and then 10-0-1 ATS in that subset since 2012).   Additionally, this is the first time in more than two years that the Chargers have been favored by more than 5 points, whether at home, or on the road!  And on the road, when favored by 4 or more points, the Chargers have covered just once in nine games dating back to 2009.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee comes into this game off an upset win over Kansas City, and has been installed as a road favorite vs. the Jaguars.  Unfortunately for the Titans, they're a poor 5-17 ATS off an upset win, including 1-8 ATS when laying more than 3 points.  Jacksonville also falls into an 86-29 ATS late season system of mine.  Take the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  New York is 4-10 on the season following its 21-point home loss to the Dolphins a week ago, while New England is 12-2.  This will be the Jets final road game of the year, and teams off a loss by more than 17 points, have gone 0-12 ATS in their final road games, when matched up against an opponent whose win percentage is at least .400 percentage points better.  That doesn't bode well for the Flyboys on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that New England is 26-10 ATS since 1980 in its final home game of the season, including 8-1 ATS if the Patriots' win percentage was at least .333 better than their opponent's.  Finally, the Patriots fall into 34-5, 97-50 and 45-13 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off losses.  Take New England.  NFL Conference Favorite of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Washington Redskins.  The Bears are 3-11, and won't be going to the Playoffs, but they're still competing at a high level.  Over their last five games, Chicago's 1-4 straight-up, but a perfect 5-0 ATS.  This is its final home game of the season, and I fully expect a great effort in front of its home faithful.  Also, the Bears are 42-14 ATS at home off back to back losses, when not favored by more than three points.  Take Chicago.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins as Buffalo falls into 56-20 and 33-11 ATS systems of mine.  Also, this is Miami's final road game of the season, and NFL underdogs of more than 3 points, with a better season record than their opponent, are a dismal 37% ATS in their final road games, if their opponent is playing with revenge.  With the Bills, indeed, playing with revenge from a 3-point loss at Miami earlier this season, we'll lay the points with Rex Ryan's club.  Take Buffalo. NFL Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Ohio.  Both of these teams lost their most recent game.  The Bobcats fell, 29-23, to Western Michigan, while Troy State lost, 28-24, as a 7-point favorite at Georgia Southern.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with the Trojans, as they're 8-0 ATS their last 8 off an upset loss.  And they also fall into a 94-54 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses immediately before a bowl game.  Take Troy State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on Navy + the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Midshipmen got bit by the injury bug, which was the primary reason they lost their last two games -- vs. Temple in the American Athletic Conf. Title Game and, then, vs. Army a week later.  Of course, the pointspread has been adjusted upward to account for the injuries, and I'm more than happy to grab the points with the underdog in this Armed Forces Bowl.  Navy falls into a 48-22 ATS Bowl system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Moreover, the Middies have been the best team in college football ATS when playing away from home over the past 25 years.  Since 1991, Navy is 106-55 ATS away from home, including 26-12 ATS off back to back losses, and 74-33 ATS as an underdog.  Take Navy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Old Dominion.  Eastern Michigan falls into several of my favorite Bowl Systems, with records of 107-50, 121-67 and 136-89 ATS.  Additionally, Eastern Michigan plays with revenge from a 38-34 home loss suffered to Old Dominion last season, and a 17-3 loss to the Monarchs the year before.  But underdogs of more than 3 points are an awesome 64.2% ATS in the post-season since 1994 when playing with revenge!  Take Eastern Michigan + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the NY Giants.  Philly's dropped 5 in a row (though it covered the spread in last week's loss), while New York's won back to back games (both SU and ATS) vs. Dallas (10-7) and Detroit (17-6).  But we'll fade the G-Men on this Thursday, as the Giants fall into several negative systems of mine.  One is 118-65 ATS and fades certain teams that didn't give up 10 or more points in either of their two previous games.  And another is 86-48 ATS, and that system plays on certain teams off 3+ losses vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Eagles are 13-4 ATS the last 17 meetings with New York, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if the Eagles are off an ATS win.  Take Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over the Colorado State Rams, as Idaho falls into 28-7, 38-16 and 16-0 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins (Colorado State stunned San Diego State, 63-31, as an 11.5-point underdog in its last game).  Let's take a look at our 28-7 ATS angle.  That goes against teams that won outright as underdogs of more than 10 points, if they scored 48+ in that victory.  And if our 'play-against' team (here, Colorado State) has a W/L percentage of .583 (or better) than our 28-7 angle zooms to 12-1 ATS.  The Vandals certainly will be the team most in the stands will be cheering for this evening, as the game will be played less than 300 miles from Idaho's main campus in Moscow.  And we'll grab the points with Idaho.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, in the Poinsettia Bowl, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over BYU.  The Cougars have won four straight games, while Wyoming's dropped its last two.  But none of the Cougars' last four opponents (Cincinnati, Southern Utah, Massachusetts, Utah State) qualified for a Bowl game.  In contrast, Wyoming's two losses to end the season were against New Mexico and San Diego State.  And both of those teams played in a Bowl game.  One of the things I like to do in the post-season is wager on teams off back to back losses, if they're playing a favored opponent off 3+ wins.  Since 1980, our underdogs in this situation have cashed 72% of the time!  Take Wyoming + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers finished the season with a better record (both SU and ATS) than Memphis, but that largely was due to a much easier schedule.  Western Kentucky benefited from playing in a weaker conference (Conference USA) than did Memphis (American Athletic).  Indeed, the 2nd best team (Louisiana Tech) this season in Conference USA would have rated 6th or 7th this year in the American Athletic Conference.  When the Hilltoppers stepped outside of their conference this season, they fared very poorly, with just one ATS win in five games.  Even worse:  in the regular season, they also failed to cover the spread against the teams rated #2 and #3 in power rating in Conference USA (LA Tech and Middle Tennessee St), though they did avenge their regular season defeat with a home win in the Conference USA Title game vs. LA Tech.  Regardless, much of Western Kentucky's success this season was against very soft competition; they didn't cover the spread in any of their four games when they weren't favored by more than 11 points.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Washington Redskins minus the points over Carolina.  After a 3-game road trek at Dallas, Arizona and Philly, the Redskins return home for this game vs. Carolina.  Washington's won its last four games at home (going 4-0 ATS), and falls into a super 38-11 ATS system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any home team on Monday Night Football, if it's off back to back road games, and is playing a team with a worse record.  Even better:  if our team is playing with revenge, then our 38-11 angle zooms to 13-1 ATS.  Last year, the Redskins were blown out, 44-16, at Carolina by the Panthers, so they'll definitely be looking to avenge that defeat on Monday.  And Washington also falls into a 36-20 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that lost by 25+ points the previous year.  Take Washington.  Monday Night Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane laid an egg (at least in Las Vegas) in its last game, as it was favored by 22.5, yet only won by three points vs. Cincinnati, 40-37.  Now, Tulsa is laying double digits to Central Michigan, notwithstanding the fact that the Golden Hurricane's defense leaves much to be desired.  Indeed, Tulsa's giving up 31.5 ppg (against opponents that score two points less, on average), and that number soars to 36.5 ppg away from home.  Generally speaking, it's a real bad idea to lay points with bad defensive clubs in bowl games.  For example, teams that give up 23+ ppg have covered just 25% of Bowl games if laying more than a TD to a team that scores at least 25 ppg.  Grab the points with Central Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Tampa Bay.  The Buccaneers won (and covered) their fifth straight game, last week, when they bested Drew Brees & the Saints, 16-11, as a 2.5-point favorite.  Tampa's now 8-5, and has an excellent shot to make the Playoffs.  But they'll face their stiffest test of the season this week when they have to take on the 11-2 Cowboys, in Texas.  And Dallas should be in an ornery mood following its upset loss last week at New York.  We'll take Dallas, as home teams off an upset loss on the road have covered 73.4% over the past 37 years vs. winning teams off 3+ ATS wins, including 13-1 ATS if our home team is playing with revenge.  With Dallas, indeed, playing with revenge from a 10-6 loss at Tampa Bay last season, we'll lay the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New England Patriots.  These two teams met twice last season -- both times, here, in Denver.  And the Broncos got the better of Tom Brady in each instance.  In the regular season, the Broncos won 30-24, as a 3-point underdog.  Then, in last year's playoffs, Denver upset the Patriots once again, 20-18, also as a 3-point home underdog.  Fast forward to this Sunday, and New England is once again favored on the road.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the revenge-minded Patriots.  But consider that, since 1981, road teams playing with revenge from an upset loss in the previous year's Playoffs have gone an awful 18-37 ATS.  Even worse for New England: it falls into negative 29-63 and 57-113 ATS systems of mine based on its statistics through the first 13 games.  Finally, Denver's a super 45-24 ATS at home vs. foes that have a scoring margin of +5.5 ppg (or better).  Take Denver.  NFL High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Chargers + the points over Oakland.  These two division rivals met in Oakland earlier this season, and the Raiders won that game, 34-31, as a 3.5-point favorite.  We'll take the points with the Chargers this afternoon, as they fall into a super 57-25 ATS revenge system of mine, which plays on certain teams that lost earlier in the season to their opponent, provided they're not getting more than 3 points.  Moreover, the Raiders are a woeful 31-61-1 ATS when not getting more than 3 points, including 15-52-1 ATS vs. foes not off a straight-up win!  Finally, AFC West division home underdogs have been a very profitable 38-24-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take San Diego.  NFL Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Green Bay played its best game of the season last week when it blew out Seattle, 38-10, as a 3-point home underdog, while the Bears lost a 3-point heartbreaker at Detroit.  Now, to earn a playoff spot, the Packers will likely have to win their final three games — all against division opponents — and hope that Detroit also loses to either the Cowboys or Giants.  Of course, if the Packers lose to their Windy City rivals this weekend, they’ll be all but eliminated from the Playoff chase.  I’m going to take the points with the Bears, who will be playing this game with revenge from a loss at Green Bay earlier in the season.  And underdogs of more than 6 points, from Chicago’s division, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season have gone 29-6 ATS since 1993.  Even better:  NFC North division teams off a straight-up loss have gone 56-28 ATS vs. division rivals off a win.  Finally, Green Bay falls into a negative 32% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upset wins.  Take Chicago.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Buffalo.  I'm well aware of Cleveland's miserable record this season.  But it's hard to pass up double-digits this late in the season against a losing team like Buffalo.  Indeed, non-winning teams (at Game 5 forward) have been dreadful when favored by 9+ points, if they lost their previous game straight-up.  Since 1980, they've covered just 45 of 126 games.  Take the points with the Browns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  Last week, the Eagles dropped their fourth straight game (both SU and ATS) when they lost at home, 27-22, to division rival Washington.  The Eagles will finish up with 2 home games vs. their other two division rivals, so this non-division game is their lone road game of the final four weeks.  And when a team closes its schedule with 3 of its final four games at home, it generally gets beat pretty bad in its final road game of the season, as NFL teams in this situation have covered just 56 of 149 since 1980, including just 9 of 49 as underdogs (or PK) off an ATS loss.  Take Baltimore.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Colts were upset by their division rival, Houston, last Sunday.  Indy was favored by 6.5, but lost at home, 22-17.  I love Andrew Luck & Co. to bounce back on the road this Sunday, as they're 25-7 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 12-1, 92% ATS when getting more than 2 points!  And Minny's covered just 12 of 33 vs. foes off an upset loss.  Finally, .620 (or worse) NFL teams are 158-105 ATS since 1980 off an upset loss as a 6-point (or greater) favorite, if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take the Indianapolis Colts + the points.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Houston Texans.  Houston went into Jacksonville, and upset the Jaguars, 24-21, last month.  And Houston also upset another division rival -- Indianapolis -- last weekend.  But I look for Jacksonville to turn the tables on the Texans on Sunday, as the Texans fall into a negative 16-55 ATS system of mine which goes against home favorites in divisional games off an upset over another division rival the previous week on the road.  Even better:  the Jaguars have lost their last seven games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against them on the road.  But road underdogs on a 7-game (or worse) losing streak have actually been terrific wagers over the past 27 years, as they've cashed 54 of 79 (68.3%).  Take the points with the Jaguars.  AFC South Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Miami will start Matt Moore under center, as QB Ryan Tannehill is out with a knee injury.  Ironically, the last time Moore started a game was almost five years ago, in 2012, in a New Year's Day win over these same Jets.  Last week, Moore completed three of five passes for 47 yards, in relief of Tannehill.  And Miami upset the Arizona Cardinals, 26-23, as a home underdog.  Unfortunately, that upset win has triggered a negative 68-140 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain teams off home upset wins.  Meanwhile, the Jets went into San Francisco, and upset the 49ers last week, as a 3-point road dog.  And one of the things I love to do is play on home underdogs (or PK) off upset wins on the road, when matched up against an opponent also off a win.  Our home pups in this situation have gone 147-105 ATS since 1980.  Take New York.  AFC East Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over New Mexico.  These two teams know each other well.  They've played twice in the past four seasons, with each winning outright as an underdog on the other's home field.  So that bodes well for Texas San Antonio this afternoon, as this game will be played at New Mexico's stadium, in Albuquerque.  And I won't pass up the points with the Roadrunners, as they're a much better defensive club than New Mexico.  The Lobos are giving up a whopping 32.4 ppg (more than 5 points more than their opponents would otherwise average).  In contrast, Texas San Antonio has held its opponents to 2.5 ppg BELOW their offensive averages.  It's true that Texas San Antonio comes into this game with just a 6-6 record (compared to 8-4 for New Mexico).  But underdogs that didn't have a winning regular season have gone 37-20 ATS in the post-season vs. foes that did have a winning year.  Take Texas San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  At its core essence, sports gambling is a numbers game.  So, one of the primary goals is to get the best number.  This game opened at -8, and the line has come down to -6, so it's crossed the key NFL number of -7, and rests on a lesser key number (-6).  We'll pull the trigger on the Patriots right here, as New England is 82-37-4 ATS in the regular season since Sept. 14, 2003 when not laying 7+ points, including 18-5 ATS in the last four weeks of the season.  Take the Patriots.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints against Tampa Bay.  The Bucs won and covered their fourth straight game last week -- with their fourth straight upset win, no less -- in a 28-21 win at San Diego (as a 3-point dog).  Meanwhile, New Orleans was upset as a 6.5-point favorite, at home, vs. Detroit.  We'll take New Orleans this afternoon, as division underdogs of less than 6 points, off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 6 points, have cashed 76.4% over the past 37 years vs. foes off an upset win.  Additionally, the Saints fall into 102-40, 146-94 and 149-65 ATS Systems of mine.  Take New Orleans.  NFC South Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Last week, the Bills lost by two touchdowns to the 10-2 Oakland Raiders, as a 3-point underdog, but played better than the final score would indicate.  The Bills amassed 382 yards on offense, while Oakland got just 17 more yards.  But 2 turnovers by Buffalo were the difference in the ball game.  The Bills are still in the Playoff hunt, with a 6-6 record, and three of their remaining four games at home.  I love Buffalo as a home underdog, as home dogs off a double-digit loss and double-digit pointspread defeat, that gave up 37 or more points in their previous game, have gone 59-24 ATS vs. an opponent off a double-digit win.  Even better:  the Bills are a super 39-13 ATS at home off a straight-up and against-the-spread loss, if their opponent is off a win, including 28-5 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Steelers have lost their last eight road games, straight-up, off back to back wins, including 0-7 ATS their last seven.  Take Buffalo + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Cincinnati.  There's no denying that the Browns are an awful football club, with 12 losses to open this season, and six straight pointspread defeats since October 23, when these two teams last met.  That being said, I'm going to step in and grab the points with the home underdog Browns.  The key factor for me is that Cleveland had its Bye week last week, so it's very well rested.  And Home Dogs off a Bye have been money in the bank when getting 5.5 points, as they're 36-13 ATS.  Take the Browns.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Chicago.  The Bears have covered three straight games, including a 26-6 upset win, at home, vs. the San Francisco 49ers last week.  But I expect the Bears to come back down to earth this afternoon.  After all, they're starting a rookie QB in Matt Barkley, who won't have very many weapons on hand.  Chicago will be without WR Alshon Jeffery once again as he finishes up his 4-game suspension, as well as WR Eddie Royal, who has a toe injury.  And WR Marquess Wilson (groin) is also questionable to play.  The Lions lost to the Bears earlier this season on the road, but Detroit's a terrific 25-11 ATS at home when playing with same-season revenge.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over San Diego.  The Panthers had their worst game of the season last week, when they were blown out, 40-7, at Seattle.  Of course, that came as no surprise to us, as we had a huge play on the Seahawks as a touchdown favorite in that game.  But we'll switch gears, and take Carolina back at home this afternoon.  Indeed, NFL home teams not favored by 2+ points, off a road loss in which they gave up 40+ points, are 83-49-4 ATS their last 136.  Moreover, the Panthers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home off an ATS defeat on the road.  Take Carolina.  NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Chiefs and Raiders to go 'under' the total.  NFL Division games go 'under' the total more often than not.  And especially toward the end of the season, in games with relatively high over/under lines.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 10 forward, NFL division games, with lines greater than 46 points, have gone 'under' 62.1% of the time!  These two teams met in Week 6, and KC held the Raiders to their lowest offensive output of the season, in a 26-10 victory.  The Raiders managed to get less than 300 yards on offense, and were completely shut down by KC's defense.  Of course, since then, the Raiders have won six straight, and have averaged over 32 ppg, with all six games going 'over' the total.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here.  But only one of Oakland's last six opponents -- Denver -- has (like Kansas City) a top 10-ranked defense.  Additionally, Oakland has gone 'under' in 20 of 25 road games following back to back games in which 50+ points were scored!  Take the 'under' on Thursday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the KC Chiefs over the Oakland Raiders.  Oakland's 10-2, on the heels of a 6-game win streak, but comes into this road game following a 3-game Home stand.  Unfortunately for Jack Del Rio's crew, road teams off a win (and off 3 straight home games) are a soft 74-98 ATS since 1980, including 11-20 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off back to back wins.  Additionally, home teams off an upset win on the road are 133-86 ATS vs. .750 (or better) foes since 1980.  Take KC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Carolina.  We played on the Panthers last week, and bettors either pushed or won on Carolina, as they lost 35-32 to the Raiders, as a +3 or +3.5-point underdog.  Seattle wasn't as kind to its backers in Vegas last week, as they were upset, 14-5, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as a 5-point road favorite.  I love the Seahawks to bounce back at home this week, as they'll be out for revenge against the foe which knocked them out of last year's Playoffs.  And Carolina didn't just defeat Seattle once last season -- they also upset them here, in Seattle, 27-23, as a 7-point favorite.  But the Seahawks are 18-9 ATS their last 27 when playing with revenge, including 4-0 ATS off an upset loss and 10-3 ATS at home.  And NFL teams, playing with revenge from a playoff defeat, are an awesome 14-0 ATS at home vs. losing teams that didn't fail to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Take Seattle.  Perfect 10 Club play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over the Washington Redskins.  The Cardinals gave away their first game of the season, at home, to the New England Patriots (without Tom Brady + Rob Gronkowski), and that loss set the tone for the season.  The Cardinals have yet to play up to their potential, have a 4-6-1 record, and own just one victory away from home this season.  Indeed, they've lost their last five games against the spread, including a 38-19 loss at Atlanta last week.  But even with all of these depressing stats, we'll lay the points with Arizona on Sunday.  Actually, the fact that it's failed to cover its last five games has triggered a 95-47 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 5+ pointspread defeats.  And the fact that it lost in blowout fashion last week has put Arizona into terrific 72-23 and 81-33 ATS systems of mine.  Finally, Arizona is a superb 49-25 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 22-4 ATS if the Cardinals didn't cover either of their two previous game, and the pointspread in the current game was 5 points or less.  Take the Cardinals.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.