10-07-18 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (94-71) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 3-0 victory over the Braves in the second game of this NLDS.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have also won 37 of their last 51 games after an off-day. Additionally, the Dodgers have won 15 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Buehler who is 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander did not allow an earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work last Monday in the Dodgers’ NL West tie-breaker showdown with the Rockies. LA has won 7 of their last 10 games with Buehler on the hill looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces an ice-cold Braves lineup that is scoring only 1.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .187 batting average along with a .231 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .458 over that span — and they have lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Atlanta (90-74) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have lost 11 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Newcomb who is 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The left-hander has struggled at home where his ERA rises to a 5.12 mark with a 1.44 WHIP in fourteen starts. Atlanta has lost 4 straight home games with Newcomb on the hill. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Dodgers are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over the last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .904 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are priced in the -170 range which is well above my -150 price threshold regarding taking money-line favorites in MLB (or the NHL and soccer, for that matter). But with the -1.5 Run-Line price being about even, the risk-reward cost-benefit analysis sides with Los Angeles being a solid investment opportunity with the Run-Line. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-18 |
Dodgers v. Braves OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (94-71) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 3-0 victory over the Braves in the second game of this NLDS.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have surrendered a run so far in this series — but that will likely change with this game being played back in Atlanta. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 12 games after not shutting out their last opponent — and they have played 4 straight Overs after shutting out their opponents in two straight games. The Dodgers have only given up two combined runs in their last four games — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in four straight games. They give the ball to Buehler who is 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.45 mark along with a 1.12 WHIP. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Buehler pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta (90-74) has played 24 of their last 35 home games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. The Braves have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after being shutout in two straight games. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off-day. They return home for the first time since September 23rd — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. The Braves have played 6 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 18 games in the playoffs, Atlanta has seen 13 of these contests finish Over the Total. They counter with Newcomb who is 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The left-hander has struggled at home where his ERA rises to a 5.12 mark with a 1.44 WHIP in fourteen starts. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Newcomb facing a team with a winning record. It is not likely he will get bailed out by the Atlanta bullpen as they have a 4.24 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in their last seven games. The Dodgers are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over the last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .904 over that span. LA has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Under might be tempting after the Braves failed to score in these first two games but expect this to be the highest-scoring game in this series. 25* MLB National League Divisional Series Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-18 |
Brewers +1.5 v. Rockies |
Top |
6-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 4:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (955) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (956) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (98-67) looks to close this best-of-five series out this afternoon after seizing a 2-0 lead with their 4-0 shutout victory over the Rockies on Friday in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Milwaukee is on fire with a ten game winning streak. They have also either won or lost by just one run in 27 of their last 32 contests — so I am overjoyed with the fact that the price of the valuable +1.5 Run-Line is below my -150 price threshold for this game. The Brewers have won 16 of their last 21 games after a victory — and they have also won 5 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Milwaukee has also won 5 straight games after an off-day. Furthermore, the Brewers have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also won 5 straight games on the road. They give the ball to Miley who is 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective in the road where he has a 2.50 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in nine starts. Miley has also been solid when pitching at Coors Field where he holds a respectable 3.89 ERA in thirteen career stars/fourteen career appearances. Milwaukee has won 6 of their last 7 road games with Miley on the mound. He will be supported by a hot bullpen that has a 1.62 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP in their last seven games. Colorado (92-74) is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .212 batting average along with a .279 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .887 over that span. The Rockies have only scored six runs over their last four games while never plating more than two runners over that span. Colorado has then lost 9 of their last 14 games after failing to score more than four runs in four straight games. They also have lost 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day. And in their last 12 home games with the Total set at a lower (for Coors Field) 9 to 9.5, the Rockies have lost 8 of these games. Colorado has lost 10 of their last 12 games in the playoffs which includes them dropping four straight playoff games at home. They counter with Marquez who is 14-11 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Marquez pitched great in LA on Monday in the NL West tie-breaker with the Dodgers — but he returns home where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.74 mark with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .279. The Rockies have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Marquez pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. The Colorado bullpen struggles at home as well with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. The Brewers are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .276 batting average along with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .749 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: This is a strong value play — the Rockies can win this game outright with Miley on the hill. The opportunity to invest in the +1.5 Run-Line is too good to pass up. 25* MLB National League Divisional Series Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Milwaukee Brewers (955) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (956) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-18 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-119 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (953) and the Boston Red Sox (954) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and David Price. THE SITUATION: Boston (109-54) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-4 score over the Yankees.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is now 6-0-2 in Boston’s last 8 games at home in Fenway Park. They give the ball to Price who is 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.89 mark when pitching at night. The Over is also 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 home games with Price facing the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers are scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .279 batting average along with a .347 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .853 OPS over that span. Additionally, NYY has played 4 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Boston bullpen is also struggling as they have a 6.75 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP over their last seven games. New York (101-63) has played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees have also played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Tanaka who is 12-6 with a 3.75 RRA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.92 mark for his twenty-one starts at night. Tanaka struggled in his two starts in Fenway this year where he was saddled with a 6.52 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310. This is Tanaka’s first start since September 26th — and the Yankees have played 4 straight Overs when Tanaka is pitching with at least nine days between starts. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .300 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .902.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Boston O/U TBS-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (953) and the Boston Red Sox (954) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-18 |
Yankees v. Red Sox -105 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (954) versus the New York Yankees (953) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Masahiro Tanaka. THE SITUATION: Boston (109-54) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-4 score over the Yankees.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York (101-63) has now lost 8 of their last 9 road games as a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. Rookie manager Aaron Boone has resorted to using his bullpen for 6 innings of that game yesterday after having his bullpen pitch 5 innings on Wednesday in the AL Wildcard Game versus the A’s. The Yankees have lost 6 of their last 9 games when their bullpen has pitched at least 5 innings in two straight games. Furthermore, New York has lost 13 of their last 16 playoff games on the road — and this includes them losing four of their last five road games in the ALDS. And in their last 9 games in Fenway Park, the Yankees have lost 7 of these contests. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 12-6 with a 3.75 RRA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.92 mark for his twenty-one starts at night. Tanaka struggled in his two starts in Fenway this year where he was saddled with a 6.52 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310. Furthermore, New York has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Tanaka facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Red Sox team that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .300 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .902 over that span. Boston has won 45 of their last 64 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Red Sox have been dominant when playing at home — they have won 45 of their last 62 games at Fenway this season while also winning 21 of their last 31 home games in the playoffs. This is Boston’s eight straight game at home — and they have won 13 of their last 14 home games when they are playing at least their seventh straight contest at home. They counter with Price who is 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.98 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in sixteen starts. Price has been outstanding in the second-half of the season where he owns a 6-1 record with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in eleven starts. The Red Sox have won 21 of their last 27 home games with Price on the hill — and they have also won 7 of their last 8 home games with Price facing a team with a winning record. Boston has also won 4 of their last 5 games at Fenway Park with Price facing the Yankees. Price faces a Bronx Bombers team that has lost 11 of the last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The oddsmakers have the Red Sox just a small money-line favorite in this game with perhaps the notion that this Yankees team is too good to fall behind by an 0-2 mark in this series. Boston has been the better team this season — and they have home field advantage and the edge at starting pitcher. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (954) versus the New York Yankees (953) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-18 |
Indians +1.5 v. Astros |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-145 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 4:37 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (952) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Houston (104-59) won the opening game of this series yesterday afternoon with their 7-2 victory over the Indians. While the Astros opened as a money-line favorite for Game Two of this ALDS series, they have bet up to money line favorites in the -160 price range.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Cleveland (91-72) has won 9 straight games in the playoffs when trailing in the series. The Indians have also won 5 of their last 6 second games to a new series. Cleveland’s bats have grown a little cold as they have scored only four runs in their last two games and eight runs over their last three contests. However, the Indians have won 20 of their last 25 games after failing to score more than four runs in their last three games — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than two runs in each of their last two games. They give the ball to Carrasco who is 17-10 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in thirty starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.96 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in sixteen starts. Over his last five starts, Carrasco has a 2.61 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. He takes the mound again for the first time since Sunday — and the Indians have won 20 of their last 27 games when Carrasco is pitching with five days of rest. He faces an Astros lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .220 batting average along with a .263 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .675 over that span. Houston has lost 13 of their last 19 playoff games when leading in the series — and this includes them losing five of their last eight playoff games when enjoying a lead which comprises their World Series run of last year. The Astros have also lost 9 of their last 15 games with the Total set at 7. They counter with Cole who is 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander began his tenure with Houston in prime form by posting a 2.52 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average through the All-Star Break. Since that time, he has seen those numbers rise to a 3.50 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 as perhaps he began to tire while opposing American League teams began to get a book on the former Pittsburgh hurler. He faces an Indians team that has won 20 of their last 29 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: We will take heavy favorites minus the -1.5 Run-Line as we did last night with the Dodgers. We had the Astros yesterday — and their easy win has compelled many bettors to ride them again. That action has lowered the Indians +1.5 Run-Line opportunity to below my -150 price threshold — and that is where the value is with Carrasco on the hill for them. 10* MLB Cleveland-Houston Run-Line TBS-TV Special with the Cleveland Indians (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (952) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-18 |
Braves v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (911) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (93-71) won the opening game of this series last night with their 6-0 win over the Braves.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 5 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also won 8 straight home games against teams with a winning record — and they have now won 7 of their last 9 home games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Kershaw who is 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.58 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in thirteen starts. Los Angeles has won a decisive 40 of their last 51 games at home with Kershaw on the hill. Kershaw has a reputation of pitching poorly in the playoffs — but he was good for most of the Dodgers’ playoff run last year with four Quality Starts in his six postseason appearances with a 3.82 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179. In his three starts at home in the playoffs last year, Kershaw owned as dominant 1.69 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP. Much has been said about Kershaw not pitching the opening game of this series, but there were a couple of benefits in that decision. Besides that setting up Kershaw being able to pitch a decisive fifth game of this series, it also gave the Dodgers’ long-time ace an extra day of rest for this start. Kershaw sees his ERA drop to a 2.48 mark this season when pitching on five days of rest while averaging 9.2 strikeouts per 9 innings. He faces a slumping Braves team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .529 over that span. Atlanta has lost 4 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Braves have lost 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. They counter with Sanchez who is 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the veteran with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.81 moving forward. The right-hander also sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.22 and 1.15 marks when pitching at night. The Braves have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Sanchez looking to stop a losing streak. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .305 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .920 over that span. Los Angeles has won 24 of their last 33 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers priced higher than -150, the money-line play is not an option for me. But given the substantial advantages that Los Angeles has for this contest, laying the -1.5 Run-Line remains a strong option. 25* MLB NLDS Playoff Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (911) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-18 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:32 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (905) and the Boston Red Sox (906) listing both starting pitchers J.A. Happ and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: New York (101-62) reached the American League Divisional Series with their 7-2 victory over the A’s on Wednesday in the AL Wildcard Game. Boston (108-54) takes the field again after their 10-2 win over the Yankees last Sunday in their last game of the regular season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in Boston’s last 7 games after an off-day — and the Over is 12-3-2 in their last 17 opening games of a new series. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Sale who is 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The left-hander has only pitched 17 innings since dealing with a shoulder injury — and he has experienced a decrease in velocity since returning to the mound. The Boston coaching staff feel this velocity drop was due to a mechanical error that they have since corrected but this remains in doubt until he takes the hill. The Red Sox have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Sale facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees lineup that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .280 batting average with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .906 during that span. New York has seen the Over go 13-6-2 in their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitches. The Yankees have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a victory. New York has also played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Yankees have played 6 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Happ who is 17-6 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in thirty-one starts. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .288 batting average along with a .377 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 881 over that span. Furthermore, the Over is 27-11-2 in Boston’s last 40 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total stabilizing in the 7.5 range, expect at least eight combined runs to be scored. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Boston TBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (905) and the Boston Red Sox (906) listing both starting pitchers J.A. Happ and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-18 |
Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8 |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (909) and the Milwaukee Brewers (910) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Jhoulys Chacin. Milwaukee (97-67) won the opening game of this best-of-five series yesterday by a 3-2 score in 10 innings over the Rockies yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers entered the 9th inning with a 2-0 lead before seeing their bullpen blow that save. Milwaukee has then played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a blown save in their last game. The Brewers won their previous game this week on Monday when they traveled to Chicago to defeat the Cubs in the NL Central tie-breaker game by a 3-1 score. Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total after winning their last two games by two runs or less. The Brewers have also played 23 of their last 37 games Over the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. They give the ball to Chacin who is pitching on short rest after he pitched 5 2/3 innings in that game on Monday. The right-hander has a 15-8 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-five starts — but he has struggled at home with a 3.79 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in thirteen starts. Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Chacin facing a team with a winning record. Colorado (92-73) counters with Anderson who is 7-8 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty-two starts. He sees his ERA rise to a 5.02 mark in his fifteen starts on the road. Since the All-Star Break, the left-hander has an ERA of 6.06 with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273. The Rockies have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with Anderson pitching against a team with a winning record. Colorado has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Anderson pitching as an underdog. He faces a Brewers team that has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitches. The Rockies’ bullpen will likely get plenty of work in this game. But the Colorado bullpen has already logged-in 14 1/3 innings of work in their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings in their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a high-scoring game this afternoon. 10* MLB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (909) and the Milwaukee Brewers (910) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Jhoulys Chacin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-18 |
Indians v. Astros -144 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 2:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (908) versus the Cleveland Indians (907) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber. THE SITUATION: Houston (103-59) enters the postseason having won twenty-one of their last twenty-seven games despite losing in their last game on Sunday by a 4-0 score in Baltimore. Cleveland (91-71) begins their playoff run coming off a 2-1 win in Kansas City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 6 straight games after a loss — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day. The Astros return home for the first time since September 23rd — and they have won 9 of their last 11 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 16 of their last 21 home games in the playoffs. While the Red Sox and Yankees get most of the national attention, the reigning World Series Champions have an impressive run differential of +263 which far surpasses their +196 run differential mark from their championship run last season. They give the ball to Verlander who is 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in thirty-four starts. He has been even nastier at home where he has a 0.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in nineteen home starts as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average on the road. Verlander raised his level of play in September where he had a 3-0 mark with a 1.09 ERA. The reigning AL Cy Young award winner was 4-1 in the postseason last year with a 2.21 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 while striking out 38 batters and walking only 8 in 36 2/3 innings of work. He comes off 6 shutout innings last Saturday at Baltimore — and the Astros have won 4 straight games with Verlander looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces an Indians team that has lost 12 of their last 17 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Cleveland has lost 8 of their last 11 games after a victory — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 gamers after not allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, the Indians have lost 4 of the last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And Cleveland has lost 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs. They counter with their ace Kluber who was 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in the regular season. But while the right-hander had a 2.14 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in seventeen starts at home, those numbers rose to a solid but unspectacular 3.80 ERA on the road with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250. The Indians have lost 5 of their last 7 games with Kluber facing a team with a winning record. He faces an Astros team that has won 4 of the last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.
FINAL TAKE: Kluber is a great pitcher — but he is not nearly dominant when pitching on the road. Verlander gives the Astros a big edge this afternoon. 25* MLB Friday Afternoon Special Feature with the money-line on the Houston Astros (908) versus the Cleveland Indians (907) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-72) enters the postseason having lost four of their last five games after their 3-1 loss in Philadelphia on Sunday. Los Angeles (92-71) has won four straight games after they won their 163rd game tie-breaker on Monday with their 5-2 win over Colorado.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atlanta has played 19 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs in their last game. The Braves have only scored one run in their last two games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in two straight games. But Atlanta has not allowed more than four runs in their last eight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. Additionally, the Braves have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set no higher than 7 — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Foltynewicz who is 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 2.48 mark. Atlanta has played 3 straight road games Under the Total with Foltynewicz pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They face a Dodgers team that they defeated back in Atlanta by a 4-1 score as a money-line underdog in their last meeting back on July 29th. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when avenging a loss as a road favorite. The Under is 11-5-1 in the Dodgers’ last 17 games after an off-day. The Under is also 17-5-1 in LA’s last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 playoff games at home. They counter with Ryu who is 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. After coming back from an injury this summer, the left-hander sported a 1.88 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .156. In his nine starts at home, Ryu has a nearly unhittable 1.15 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. He faces this slumping Braves lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .205 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .548 during the span. Atlanta has played 4 straight road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: I suspect Atlanta will struggle to score in their first postseason game with their new generation of players. And don’t underestimate the impact of the sun setting in LA which notoriously places shadows on the field for the first-half of these late afternoon west coast games. 25* MLB Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Rockies v. Brewers -136 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 5:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (902) versus the Colorado Rockies (901) (do not list the starting pitchers — I will explain below). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (96-67) clinched the top seed for the National League playoffs with their 3-1 win over the Cubs in Chicago on Monday in that tie-breaker game to determine the winner of the NL Central. Colorado (92-72) survived the NL Wildcard game on Tuesday by defeating the Cubs in 13 innings on Tuesday by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 4 straight games after enjoying an off-day. They return home where they have won 49 of their last 73 games this season — and they have also won 20 of their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Brewers have also won 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. This team will be looking to avenge a 5-4 loss at home to the Rockies back on August 5th — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. Manager Craig Counsell will be using this opening game as a reliever contest — he has (finally) tapped Brandon Woodruff to open this contest. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 42 1/3 innings of work that includes four starts in his nineteen appearances. Woodruff did see his ERA drop to a 3.38 mark when pitching at home — and he will likely have a green light to pitch a handful of innings as long as he is effective. The Brewers have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Woodruff making the start. One of the reasons that Counsell has opted to deploy the trendy bullpen route for this game is because this Rockies team pounds left-handed pitching which makes Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez less appealing options to start this game. But Colorado scores only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .248 batting average along with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .647. The Rockies have endured a challenging week which saw them travel from Washington D.C. to Los Angeles Sunday night back to Chicago on Monday night. The bus ride an hour north to Milwaukee after Tuesday’s game was forgiving — but don’t be surprised if this team suffers an emotional letdown after surviving that elimination game given all their travel this week. As it is, the Rockies have lost 8 of their last 10 games in the playoffs. They counter with Senzatela who is 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 90 1/3 innings. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander as he both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.50 and 4.43 moving forward. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .296 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .834 over that span. Milwaukee has won 16 of their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Brewers have also won 35 of their last 51 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 straight games against right-handed starters overall.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has a distinct situational edge in this opening game of this National League Divisional Series. While I almost always advise listing the starting pitchers, I am moving away requiring that condition as I adapt to more MLB managers relying on their bullpens as opposed to a conventional starting pitcher. Woodruff should pitch more than 1 inning — so his influence on this game is noteworthy. However, the value of handicapping 1-inning pitchers is limited (like in last night’s A’s contest with the Yankees). The reasons to like the Brewers this afternoon go far beyond the pitching matchup — and I do not want us to get burned if Counsell (or one of these crafty managers being sheepish on disclosing their “opening” pitcher) decides to change course with another opening pitcher at the last moment. 20* MLB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (902) versus the Colorado Rockies (901) (do not list the starting pitchers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-18 |
A's v. Yankees -1.5 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
110 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (940) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (939) (do not list the starting pitchers — I will explain below). THE SITUATION: Oakland (97-65) begins the postseason coming off a 5-4 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels on Sunday. New York (100-62) looks to rebound from a 10-2 loss in Boston on Sunday to close out their regular season. It will all be on the line for both teams in this single-elimination showdown of the American League Wildcard Playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The A’s have lost four of their last seven contests — and they have lost 40 of their last 63 games after a loss by just one run. Oakland has played six straight games against AL West rivals — and they have lost 21 of their last 27 road games after playing at least six straight games against divisional rivals. Additionally, the A’s have 43 of their last 64 road games as a money-line underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games in the Bronx against the Yankees. Furthermore, Oakland has also lost 11 of their last 15 games in the playoffs which includes them losing six of their last seven games in the playoffs on the road. Manager Bob Melvin has decided to rely on his bullpen for this single elimination with Liam Hendriks pitching the opening inning. The right-hander has a 2.08 ERA in his eight starts in these bullpen games this season — but that spans only 8 2/3 innings of work. Don’t let those nice numbers derived from a staggeringly low sample size fool you: Melvin is resorting to his bullpen because he lacks credible options for a traditional starting pitcher. Injuries have devastated what was never an above average group even at full strength. This is a strategy of last resort. Hendriks has a road ERA of 7.45 with a 1.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .325 — albeit in just 9 2/3 innings of work. The sample size for Hendriks’ road appearances this season should also be taken with a grain of a salt — but it is not an encouraging set of circumstances that the Oakland’s A’s first inning pitcher has yet to pitch even 10 innings in a hostile environment this season. Hendriks has pitched 178 2/3 innings on the road in his career; he has an ugly 6.45 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .336 over that span. Oakland has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Hendriks starting with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. Hendriks and the other members of the A’s bullpen will be facing a Yankees team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .278 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .882. New York has bounced-back to win 41 of their last 56 games are a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least six runs. Furthermore, the Yankees have won 30 of their last 39 games after allowing at least eight runs in their last game while also winning 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 10 runs in their last contest. Additionally, New York has won 66 of their last 100 games at home when favored in the -125 to -175 price range — and this includes them winning fifteen of their last twenty-one home games when priced in that range. They give the ball to Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has struggled in the second-half of this season — but he might have found his mojo again given his 2.04 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts. The Yankees have won 22 of their last 26 home games with Severino making the start — and this includes them winning sixteen of their last twenty-one home games with Severino facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: With the Yankees priced in the -185 range, they are well above my -150 price threshold which is my maximum price point in MLB. But with New York priced as a small money-line underdog when laying the -1.5 Run-Line, that is a worthwhile opportunity given the Yankees’ likely chance to win this game decisively at home. Do not list Hendricks nor Severino as the necessary starting pitchers as a condition for your wager either. While I identified some negative data on Liam Hendriks, we are not relying on his 1 inning of work as a primary argument for this play. Even if there is only a small chance that the A’s make a change to another starting pitcher for this game, Hendriks’ absence does not change our Yankees minus the -1.5 Run-Line play. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Yankees (940) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (939) (not listing the starting pitchers as a condition for this wager). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-18 |
A's v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (939) and the New York Yankees (940) (do not list the starting pitchers — I will explain below). THE SITUATION: Oakland (97-65) begins the postseason coming off a 5-4 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels on Sunday. New York (100-62) looks to rebound from a 10-2 loss in Boston on Sunday to close out their regular season. It will all be on the line for both teams in this single-elimination showdown of the American League Wildcard Playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Now this team stays on the road where the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games — and the Over is 6-2-1 in Oakland’s last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The A’s have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when playing in the playoffs. Manager Bob Melvin has decided to rely on his bullpen for this single elimination with Liam Hendriks pitching the opening inning. The right-hander has a 2.08 ERA in his eight starts in these bullpen games this season — but that spans only 8 2/3 innings of work. Don’t let those nice numbers derived from a staggeringly low sample size fool you: Melvin is resorting to his bullpen because he lacks credible options for a traditional starting pitcher. Injuries have devastated what was never an above average group even at full strength. This is a strategy of last resort. Hendriks has a road ERA of 7.45 with a 1.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .325 — albeit in just 9 2/3 innings of work. The sample size for Hendriks’ road appearances this season should also be taken with a grain of a salt — but it is not an encouraging set of circumstances that the Oakland’s A’s first inning pitcher has yet to pitch even 10 innings in a hostile environment this season. Hendriks has pitched 178 2/3 innings on the road in his career; he has an ugly 6.45 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .336 over that span. Granted, the A’s have a good bullpen — but Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total this season with Hendriks making the start where he does not complete at least 4 innings of work. And while Melvin has the benefit of using his starting pitchers in pen as well, his choices are not particularly attractive which is why he is in this predicament, to begin with (and he even left starter Mike Fiers off the roster). The A’s bullpen has pitched a combined 20 innings over their last three games — and they have played 29 of their last 48 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged-in at least 13 innings over their last three starts. These pitchers will be facing a Yankees team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .278 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .882. New York returns home to Yankee Stadium for the first time since September 23rd — and they have seen the Over go 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Bronx Bombers have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Severino has struggled since the All-Star Break as he has been saddled with a 5.57 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in twelve starts. A loss of some of the bite on his fastball has made the effectiveness of his cutter decline. The right-hander has been better as of late by not allowing more than two earned runs in three straight starts. But the Yankees have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total with Severino pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight starts. New York has also played 6 straight home games Over the Total with Severino on the hill. Remember that Severino got shelled for three runs in just 1/2 innings of work when he started at home against the Twins in last year’s AL Wildcard Playoff game. He is facing a feisty A’s team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while also scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Furthermore, Oakland has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 44-19-4 in their last 67 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.
FINAL TAKE: While the first three postseason games have been low-scoring contests, expect this contest to be the highest-scoring playoff game we have witnessed so far in this nascent postseason. Do not list Hendricks nor Severino as the necessary starting pitchers as a condition for your wager either. While I identified some negative data on Liam Hendriks, we are not relying on his 1 inning of work as a primary argument for this play. Even if there is only a small chance that the A’s make a change to another starting pitcher for this game, Hendriks’ absence does not change our Over play. 25* MLB Playoff Wildcard Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (939) and the New York Yankees (940) (not listing the starting pitchers as a condition for this wager). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-18 |
Rockies v. Cubs OVER 7 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (937) and the Chicago Cubs (938) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Chicago (91-72) lost their opportunity to be the top seed in the National League playoffs yesterday with their 3-1 loss at home to Milwaukee in the tie-breaker game to determine the winner of the National League Central. Colorado (91-72) lost their tie-breaker game yesterday with the Dodgers yesterday with their 5-2 loss in Los Angeles. These Monday losers now play to keep their season alive in this single elimination wildcard playoff game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Colorado was held hitless for the first 5 2/3 innings of their game yesterday before finally managing four base hits — but they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a game where they had no more than four hits. The Over is still 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 playoff games. And in their last 38 road games priced in the +/- 125 price range, the Rockies have played 23 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Freeland who is 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in thirty-three starts. But the sabermetrics indicate those numbers are overvaluing the left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.35 and 4.22 moving forward. Colorado has also played 8 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with Freeland pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. Manager Bud Black does not have a bevy of great options at his disposal if and when he goes to his relievers given the Rockies’ bullpen ERA of 4.62 along with a 1.35 WHIP this season. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival as a home favorite. Additionally, the Cubs have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams that did not score more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Lester who is 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Lester comes off a strong outing where he did not allow an earned run in 6 innings of work against the Pirates — but the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Lester looking to follow up a Quality Start. Chicago has also played 22 of their last 32 games Over the Total int he second half of the season with Lester on the hill. He will face a Rockies lineup that is still scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .294 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .995 during that span even after yesterday's tough day at the plate. Lastly, the Cubs are looking to avenge two straight upset losses at home to the Rockies back in early May where they were big money line favorites priced higher than -160 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge from two upset losses were money-line home favorites priced at least at -150.
FINAL TAKE: With the all-or-nothing stakes of this single elimination contest, expect a higher scoring game even with both managers willing to use their other starting pitchers in this wildcard game. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (937) and the Chicago Cubs (938) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-18 |
Rockies v. Cubs -129 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-129 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (938) versus the Colorado Rockies (937) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: Chicago (91-72) lost their opportunity to be the top seed in the National League playoffs yesterday with their 3-1 loss at home to Milwaukee in the tie-breaker game to determine the winner of the National League Central. Colorado (91-72) lost their tie-breaker game yesterday with the Dodgers yesterday with their 5-2 loss in Los Angeles. These Monday losers now play to keep their season alive in this single elimination wildcard playoff game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has rebounded to win 35 of their 51 games after a loss — and they have won 21 of the last 29 games after a loss by two runs or less. The Cubs have also won 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. It will certainly help to be playing this game at home in Wrigley Field where they have won 39 of their last 62 games with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range — and this includes them winning nine of their last fourteen games under those conditions. They give the ball to Lester who is 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The left-hander was struggling and was considered overachieving given his peripheral numbers. But the crafty veteran has stepped up as of last as he owns a 1.71 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP over his last eight starts spanning 47 1/3 innings of work — and he boasts a 1.00 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP over his last three starts where he has allowed only two earned runs. The Cubs have won 10 of their last 11 games when Lester is pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight starts. Chicago has also won 38 of their last 51 home games with Lester on the hill — and they have also won 27 of their last 34 home games with Lester pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Lester will not be intimidated by the moment given his vast playoff experience — in his 148 innings of playoff experience, the lefty has a 2.55 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Lester also enjoys a 2.25 ERA in five starts this season against the Rockies. Colorado has lost 5 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers while scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .225 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .648 against left-handed starters. The Rockies bats were cold yesterday as they were held hitless for the 5 2/3 innings that started that game. Colorado has lost 8 of their last 9 games in the playoffs. They pin their postseason hopes on Freeland who is 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in thirty-three starts. But the sabermetrics indicate those numbers are overvaluing the left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.35 and 4.22 moving forward. The Rockies have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Freeland on the hill with the Total set at 7 to 7.5. He faces a Cubs team that scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers which has helped them win 41 of their last 59 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Colorado bullpen has a 4.62 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP this season — so things may not get better for this team after Freeland is relieved. Additionally, the Cubs are playing with double revenge from two straight losses to the Rockies where they lost at home despite being priced at -160 and -210 prices way back to begin the month of May. But Chicago has won 18 of their last 21 games when playing with double revenge from suffering two straight upset losses where they lost to their opponent despite being a money-line favorite priced at least at -150.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs retain a significant situational edge in this game as they get to stay home for the ninth straight game while the Rockies have to travel from the west coast to Chicago for this showdown after getting on a plane to fly to Los Angeles from Washington on Sunday. Chicago also has a big edge in playoff experience as well as having a crafty manager well-versed in overseeing playoff baseball in Joe Maddon. On the other hand, Colorado manager Bud Black will be managing his first MLB playoff game tonight. 25* MLB Playoff Wildcard Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (938) versus the Colorado Rockies (937) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-18 |
Rockies +1.5 v. Dodgers |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 4:09 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (953) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: These two teams need a 163rd game to determine the winner of the National League West. Colorado (91-71) has won nine of their last ten games after they ripped Washington by a 12-0 score yesterday. Los Angeles (91-71) has won six of their last eight contests with their 15-0 victory in San Francisco yesterday. The loser of this game goes on the road in the National League Wildcard game tomorrow while the winner will host Atlanta in a National League Divisional Series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado is on-fire right now — and they have won 38 of their last 56 games after a win. The Rockies have also won 5 of their last 6 games adder not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Colorado has also won 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Marquez who is 14-10 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has been much better away from Coors Field as he enjoys a 2.91 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in sixteen starts. The Rockies have won 6 of their last 7 road games with Marquez facing a team with a winning record. Marquez has a 6-2 record with a 2.16 ERA over his last twelve starts. And in his three starts versus the Dodgers this season, Marquez is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in 21 innings. Los Angeles is only 44-37 at home this season — they were actually better on the road where they have a 47-34 record. That home mark matches the Rockies 44-37 record when on the road this year. The Dodgers have lost 16 of their last 26 games after winning at least three straight games — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning three straight games against NL West foes. Additionally, Los Angeles has lost 12 of their last 19 home games with the Total set at 7 — and they have lost 23 of their last 40 home games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The rookie has been outstanding as of late with a 1.70 ERA over his last eleven starts which helps explain why this Total is set at a low 7 — but Buehler has not been nearly as effective during day games. While Buehler has a 2.13 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in seventeen starts at night, those numbers rise to a 4.91 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in his six appearances in day games. The Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 6 home games with Buehler pitching as a favorite priced in the -125 to -175 price range. He faces a hot-hitting Rockies team that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .322 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.043 in those games. Colorado has won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 23 of their last 31 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Rockies clubbed five home runs yesterday, they are supported by an empirical situational angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. Marquez comes off a start where he did not allow an earned run in 7 innings of work against the Phillies —
|
10-01-18 |
Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7 |
Top |
2-5 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 4:09 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: These two teams need a 163rd game to determine the winner of the National League West. Colorado (91-71) has won nine of their last ten games after they ripped Washington by a 12-0 score yesterday. Los Angeles (91-71) has won six of their last eight contests with their 15-0 victory in San Francisco yesterday. The loser of this game goes on the road in the National League Wildcard game tomorrow while the winner will host Atlanta in a National League Divisional Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles is swinging hot bats right now — over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .327 batting average along with a .397 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .939 over that span. The Dodgers have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run against an NL West rival in their last game — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not allowing more that two runs in their last contest. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory — and Los Angeles has played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs. And in their last 19 games after scoring at least nine runs, the Dodgers have played 14 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The rookie has been outstanding as of late with a 1.70 ERA over his last eleven starts which helps explain why this Total is set at a low 7 — but Buehler has not been nearly as effective during day games. While Buehler has a 2.13 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in seventeen starts at night, those numbers rise to a 4.91 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in his six appearances in day games. He faces a hot-hitting Rockies team that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .322 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.043 in those games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 4 games in the playoffs. They counter with Marquez who is 14-10 with a 3.76 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Like Buehler, the right-hander has not been as effective during games where he has a 5.16 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in eleven day starts as compared to his 3.11 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 during night games. Colorado has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Marquez pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Rockies’ bullpen might be a weak-link for them as they have a rough 4.63 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP this season.
FINAL TAKE: While both teams will move to another playoff game after this one, there is still plenty at stake since the winner will have a much more favorable positioning in the playoffs moving forward. Both these starting pitchers may have been pitching great down the stretch but both will also be making their playoff debuts with their starts — so nerves may be an issue for at least one of them. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-18 |
Indians v. Royals UNDER 8.5 |
|
14-6 |
Loss |
-129 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (925) and the Kansas City Royals (926) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Ian Kennedy. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (57-102) has won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night over the Indians by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland (89-70) has lost two of their last three games after that loss last night. The Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games on the road — and the Under is 21-10-3 in the Indians’ last 34 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 12-8 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-one starts. Over his last five starts, Clevinger has a 1.82 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where they have a 2.99 ERA along with a .211 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 3.14 ERA and a .237 opponent’s batting average at home. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games with Clevinger on the hill — and the Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Kansas City with Clevinger on the hill. Kansas City (57-102) has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored at least three runs. The Royals have only allowed one run in each of their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Kennedy who is 3-8 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has a 2-1 record with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts. Kennedy has also been more effective at home where he has a 4.42 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in ten starts as compared to his 4.76 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .272 on the road. The Royals have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with Kennedy on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Under go 21-8-2 in their last 31 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With both these starting pitchers ending this season on good runs, expect a lower scoring game. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (925) and the Kansas City Royals (926) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Ian Kennedy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-18 |
Dodgers -114 v. Diamondbacks |
Top |
2-7 |
Loss |
-114 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (912) listing both starting pitchers Ross Stripling and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Arizona (80-78) snapped a four-game losing streak last night with their 4-3 victory over the Dodgers via a game-winning home run in the 9th inning in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE LOS ANGELES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Dodgers have bounced-back to win 8 of their last 9 games are a loss. Los Angeles is in the thick of the National League West pennant race still with just a 1/2 game lead over Colorado — so they have plenty at stake for this contest. They are playing good baseball down the stretch as they have won ten of their last thirteen games despite last night’s loss. The Dodgers have still won 15 of their last 19 games against fellow NL West rivals. LA has also been good road warriors who have won 5 of their last 7 games away from home as well as 15 of their last 21 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Stripling who is 8-5 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The Dodgers have won 5 of their last 7 road games with Stripling on the hill. Stripling has only pitched 3 1/3 innings in each of his last two starts — but LA has a good bullpen to back him up if he is given another short leach tonight. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 3.67 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP on the road this season — and they also enjoy a 2.49 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP over their last seven games. Stripling and the Dodgers’ bullpen should pitch well against this Diamondbacks team that is hitting just 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .215 batting average along with a .245 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .631 over that span. Arizona (80-78) has lost 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 7 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Diamondbacks have lost 6 straight games after a victory. Arizona is also below .500 at home with a 39-41 mark at Chase Field — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games at home. This team was a big disappointment in the second-half of the season with the injury to J.D. Gonzalez derailing the postseason aspirations for this team. They have lost eight of their last ten contests even after last night’s win. They give the ball to Greinke who is making his last start of the season after posting a 14-11 mark with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving with his both SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.59 and 3.46 moving forward. Arizona has lost 4 of their last 5 home games with Greinke on the hill — and they have also lost 11 of their last 16 games with the right-hander pitching after a victory in their last game. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .266 batting average along with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .830 over that span. Lastly, Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks had high expectations entering the season but their inability to benefit from a home field advantage has played a big part in their middling results. With the Dodgers just a small favorite in this game given the starting pitching matchup that I consider overestimated, we are being offered strong value in Los Angeles tonight. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (912) listing both starting pitchers Ross Stripling and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-18 |
Rangers v. Angels -145 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (976) versus the Texas Rangers (975) listing both starting pitchers Matt Shoemaker and Yovani Gallardo. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (76-81) snapped their five-game losing streak last night with their 5-1 win over the Rangers in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles belted four home runs to pull out that game in 11 innings last night — and they have then won 6 of their last 7 games are clubbing at least four home runs in their last game. The Angels have struggled against the better teams in the league — but they have feasted on the bottom of the standings as they have won 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has also won 8 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 50 games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range, the Angels have won 36 of these contests. They give the ball to Shoemaker who is 2-2 with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in five starts this season after a long stint on the disabled list from a forearm injury. Shoemaker got rocked for five runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work in his last start on Thursday against her A’s — and he should be very motivated to redeem himself from that poor performance as he looks to leave the Angels with a good impression entering the offseason. The sabermetrics indicate that he should be seeing better results as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.99 and 3.71 moving forward. Los Angeles has won 10 of their last 12 games with Shoemaker pitching at home — and they have also won 11 of their last 13 games with Shoemaker pitching at night. Manager Mike Scioscia has been giving the veteran a quick hook if he gets into trouble — and he can rely on a strong Angels’ bullpen that has a 3.56 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP when pitching at home this year. Shoemaker should pitch well against this Rangers team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .203 batting average along with a .254 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .572 over that span. Texas has lost 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 9 of their last 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Rangers’ bullpen has been worked hard as of late — the Texas relievers have pitched nine innings over their last two games while logging 13 1/3 innings over their last three games. Texas has lost 32 of their last 47 games when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings in their previous two games — and they have also lost 7 of their last 10 games when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in three straight games. Additionally, the Rangers have lost 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have lost 21 of their last 32 road games when priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games in Anaheim against the Angels. They counter with Gallardo who is 8-6 with a 6.59 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in sixteen starts and nineteen appearances this season. Gallardo has been even worse on the road where he sees his ERA rise to an 8.57 mark along with a 1.88 WHIP. Texas has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Gallardo on the hill. And while Gallardo was enjoying tremendous run support to begin the season, the Rangers have scored only ten combined runs in his last seven starts.
FINAL TAKE: Shoemaker should pitch better tonight than in his last start — but even if he struggles, the Angels should still overwhelm this Rangers team playing out the string. 25* MLB American League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (976) versus the Texas Rangers (975) listing both starting pitchers Matt Shoemaker and Yovani Gallardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-18 |
Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Matt Koch. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (88-69) won the opening game of this series last night against the Diamondbacks by a 7-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have now played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.74 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his rookie season. The right-hander has a 1.58 ERA with a 0.86 WHIO in his last ten starts along with a 2.08 ERA in his last five starts. The Dodgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total with Buehler facing a team with a winning record. He should have another strong outing against this Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .193 batting average along with a .214 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .573 over that span. Arizona (79-78) saw their bullpen blow a save last night — and they have played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after blowing a save in their last game. The Diamondbacks are playing their eighth straight game at home tonight — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after playing at least their last five previous games at home. Arizona has also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against fellow NL West opponents. They counter with Koch who is 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP this season. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 9 home games with Koch on the mound. He faces a Dodgers team that has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect another low scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Matt Koch. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-18 |
Yankees v. Rays +1.5 |
|
9-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (970) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (969) listing both starting pitchers Jacob Faria and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: New York (96-60) won the opening game of this series last night by a 4-1 score which eliminated the Rays from the American League wildcard playoff race.
REASONS TO TAKE TAMPA BAY PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Rays are not likely to be deflated from being officially the playoff race since their chances had become very low that could sneak into the second wildcard spot over the last few weeks. Tampa Bay has won 8 straight games after a loss — and they have also won 8 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Rays have won 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has won 6 of their last 7 games at home when a big underdog priced in the +151 to +200 price range. They give the ball to Faria who comes out of the bullpen to make the start while auditioning for a potential spot in next year’s starting rotation. The right-hander has a 4-3 record with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.67 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .210. The Rays have won 6 of their last 8 games with Faria making the start — and they have also won 11 of their last 17 games with Faria making the start at night. He should fare well against this Yankees team that is hitting only .218 over their last seven games with a .314 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .738 over that span. New York also suffered a big blow to their offense yesterday with their star shortstop Didi Gregorius suffering what might be a season-ending injury. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have also lost 19 of their last 26 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Severino who is 18-8 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP this season. Severino has struggled in the second-half this season but did hold the Red Sox scoreless in 7 innings in his last start. But that game was in Yankee Stadium — and Severino sees his ERA rise to a 4.01 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP along with a .260 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have also lost 5 of their last 7 games in Tampa Bay. Lastly, the Yankees fall into an empirical “play-against” angle that has been 69% effective over the last five seasons. Severino has issued only one walk in his last two starts — but road favorites using a starting pitcher who has not walked more than one batter in two straight starts while having a team batting average of .240 or lower in their last twenty games have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 74 of the last 107 situations (priced in the +130 to -255 range) where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: The Rays offer a solid investment opportunity straight-up as a home dog in this game — but with the price of the valuable +1.5 Run-Line being below my -150 price threshold, that is my preferred investment for this situation. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Tampa Bay ESPN Run-Line Special with the Tampa Bay Rays (970) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (969) listing both starting pitchers Jacob Faria and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-18 |
Phillies v. Braves -124 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (957) listing both starting pitchers Julio Teheran and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (85-68) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night with their 8-3 victory over the Phillies.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has won 6 of their last 7 games after a win. Atlanta has also won 11 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Teheran who is 9-8 with a 3.97 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander has raised his level of play as of late as he owns a 2.73 ERA in his last five starts. Teheran has also been more effective at home where he owns a 3.84 ERA in sixteen starts as compared to his 4.13 ERA when on the road. The Braves have won 8 of their last 10 home games with Teheran facing a team with a winning record — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Teheran facing the Phillies. Atlanta has also won 13 of their last 18 games with Teheran pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He should fare well against this Phillies team that has lost 20 of their last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have also lost 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Pivetta who is 7-13 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in thirty starts. The right-hander has not registered a win since August 7th while losing his last four starts. Pivetta has also struggled when on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.14 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.34 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .249 opponent’s batting average in seventeen starts at home. The Phillies have lost 8 of their last 11 road games with Pivetta facing a team with a winning record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 78-21 combined angle for this situation. He faces a Braves team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: With the Braves up six games in the NL East standings with just over a week to go, they look locked to make the National League playoffs. These are two teams moving in the opposite direction at this point of the season — but we are still getting the opportunity to take Atlanta at a nice price. 25* MLB National League East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (957) listing both starting pitchers Julio Teheran and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-18 |
Red Sox v. Indians -144 |
|
7-5 |
Loss |
-144 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (970) versus the Boston Red Sox (969) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Boston (104-49) clinched the AL East title last night with their 11-6 win in New York against the Yankees. Cleveland (85-67) looks to bounce-back from a 5-4 loss in Chicago to the White Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I would not be surprised if the Red Sox are all suffering from some sort of variation of what I call the “jager flu.” Jager is short for Jagermeister —and whatever the beverage of choice is for the Boston players, they probably had a bunch of it last night after finally clinching the AL East crown to close out that series with the Bronx Bombers in New York. As it is, the Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Boston has also lost 11 of their last 15 games played in Cleveland — and they have lost 4 straight games played on a Friday night. They give the ball to Sale who is 12-4 with a 1.92 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP this year. But the Red Sox have lost 7 of their last 10 games with Sale pitching against a team with a winning record — and they have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Sale facing a team with a winning record. Cleveland has bounced-back to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. The Indians have also won 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Bauer who comes off the disabled list with a 12-6 record along with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.87 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average in twelve starts. The Indians have won 16 of their last 21 home games with Bauer on the bump — and they have won six straight home games with Bauer facing a team with a winning record. Together, these trends produce our specific 59-17 combined angle for this situation. He should fare well against this Cleveland team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .301 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .679 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Manager Alex Cora may choose to rest some of his key regulars as a small reward for clinching the AL East title last night while knowing that a day off may offer these players a night of needed rest. With nothing more at stake for the Red Sox, expect Cleveland to win this game. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (970) versus the Boston Red Sox (969) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-18 |
Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 |
|
8-3 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Ivan Nova. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (87-66) has won two of their last three games with their 7-0 win over Cincinnati on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (77-74) has won five straight games after they defeated Kansas City by a 2-1 score on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NL Central opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Chacin who is 14-8 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.36 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in nineteen starts. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with Chacin facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Pittsburgh has played 20 of their last 26 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have also played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total in the month of September. Additionally, the Pirates have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 13-2-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 16 games at home which includes them playing seven straight home games Under the Total when facing a team with a winning record on the road. They counter with Nova who is 9-9 with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The right-hander has been better at home where he enjoys a 3.04 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Under is 13-2-1 in the Pirates’ last 16 home games with Nova facing a team with a winning record — and Pittsburgh has also played 10 of their last 11 home games with Nova pitching as an underdog. Furthermore, the Pirates have played 5 straight Unders with Nova pitching against Milwaukee. Together, these team trends produce our specific 146-36-8 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams that should see both their starting pitchers perform well. 20* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Ivan Nova. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-18 |
Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (84-68) has won six of their last seven games with their 3-2 victory over the Rockies last night in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, in the Dodgers’ last 11 home games against teams with a winning record, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he sports a 2.32 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .189 in ten starts. Los Angeles has played 5 straight home games Under the Total with Buehler on the hill. He should pitch well against this Rockies team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .240 batting average along with a .311 On-Base percentage and an OPS of .646 over that span. Colorado (82-69) has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Rockies have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less. The Under is also 18-6-4 in their last 28 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Colorado has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Anderson who is 6-9 with a 4.82 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander has struggled as of late but nine of his last thirteen starts have been at home at Coors Field. Anderson has been better on the road where he owns a 1.23 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 1.37 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts at home. Anderson’s last start was very encouraging as he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work at San Francisco. He faces Dodgers team that has seen the Under go 21-8-2 in their last 31 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 137-47-7 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have taken a 1 1/2 lead in the NL West title hunt — expect a low-scoring game between these two teams in the heat of the pennant race. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-18 |
Cubs +105 v. Diamondbacks |
Top |
0-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (959) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Robbie Ray. THE SITUATION: Chicago (89-62) has won two straight games — as well as five of their last six contests — after they defeated the Diamondbacks in the second game of this series last night with their 9-1 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago should build off their momentum in this final day of thirty straight games of baseball before they finally get a day off. The Cubs have won 9 of their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have won 4 straight games away from home against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Hamels who is 9-9 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The left-hander has been outstanding since being acquired by the Cubs as he has a 2.45 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in his last ten starts. Getting away from having to play his home games in Global Life Park in Arlington, Texas has liberated Hamels as he owns a 2.54 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in fifteen starts — and this includes a 1.82 ERA in five starts with the Cubs on the road where he has posted a 3-0 record. Hamels comes off a strong outing where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work against the Reds — and Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 games with Hamels pitching after a Quality Start in his last appearance. He faces a struggling Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .176 Batting Average along with a .221 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .577 over that span. Arizona (78-74) has lost 11 of their last 14 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Diamondbacks have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has lost 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the D-Backs have not scored more than four runs in their last seven games, they have then lost 21 of their last 32 games after not scoring more than four runs in at least four straight contests. They counter with Ray who is 5-2 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has struggled at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.37 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in ten starts. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 6 home games with Ray is on the hill — and they have lost 18 of their last 26 home games when priced as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range with Ray making the start. Chicago has won 21 of their last 31 games against left-handed starting pitchers which includes them winning five of their last six road games against left-handed starters. Lastly, the Cubs have won 41 of their last 59 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Together, these team trends produce our specific 160-50 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona is the money-line favorite with them pitching at home with Ray on the mound. But Ray is not as dominant when pitching at Chase Field — and the Diamondbacks are playing out the string having dropped six games behind in the race for the second wild-card spot in the National League. 25* MLB Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (959) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Robbie Ray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-18 |
Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees |
Top |
1-10 |
Loss |
-144 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (970) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Luis Severino. New York (92-58) won the opening game of this series last night with their 3-2 victory over the Red Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE BOSTON PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Red Sox (103-48) had the opportunity to clinch the American League East division title last night — and that remains all but inevitable despite losing yesterday. The champagne will still be on ice for this Boston team that can clinch the division tonight — and they have won 39 of their last 58 games after a loss while also winning 5 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Red Sox have won 21 of their last 31 games on the road. They give the ball to Price who is 15-6 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The left-hander has been quite good as of late as he boasts a 6-2 record with a 2.22 ERA in his last eleven starts. Boston has won 21 of their 28 games this season with Price making the start — and this includes them winning 7 of their last 9 games with Price pitching away from Fenway Park. He should pitch well against this Yankees team that is hitting only .222 batting over their last seven games. New York has lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a win — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Yankees have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Severino who is 17-8 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty starts. The right-hander has lost command of his fastball over the last two months which has decreased the effectiveness of his cutter. Over his last ten starts, Severino has a rough ERA of 6.35. He faces a Boston team that has won a decisive 41 of their last 56 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won 13 of their last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Lastly, because the Red Sox have not committed more than one error in thirty-seven straight games, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 72% effective since 1997. Price has a 0.59 WHIP over his last five starts — and road underdogs how have not committed more than one error in at least ten straight games while using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00 or less in his last five starts have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -110 to -165 price range) in 148 of these last 205 situations.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees are heavy money-line favorites in this game with Severino on the hill — but the right-hander has not been the same starting pitcher in the second-half of this season. With the valuable +1.5 Run-Line being priced below my -150 price threshold for this Red Sox team that could very easily clinch the AL East tonight, let’s attack. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with the Boston Red Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (970) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-18-18 |
White Sox v. Indians -1.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (922) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Chicago (59-90) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with an 8-4 loss in Baltimore. Cleveland (83-66) has lost three of their last four games after their 6-4 loss in Detroit on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Cleveland should bounce-back in this contest as they have won 9 of their last 12 games after a loss. Returning back home should help where the Indians have won 55 of their last 78 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Cleveland has also won 44 of their last 763 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Kluber who is 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in thirty starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he sports a 2.05 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .196 in sixteen starts. The Indians have won 31 of their last 42 home games with Kluber facing a team with a winning record. Kluber saw his last start skipped with manager Terry Francona giving his ace some rest before playoffs next month while positioning him for the prime spot in the rotation when the postseason begins. Kluber last took the mound back on September 10th — and Cleveland has won 5 of their last 6 games when Kluber was pitching with at least seven days of rest. He faces a White Sox team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .206 batting average along with a .272 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Chicago has lost 39 of their last 54 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have also lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The White Sox have lost 6 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 39 of their last 55 games after an off-day. Chicago has also lost 50 of their last 66 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Rodon who is 6-5 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in seventeen starts this year. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 3.45 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in nine starts as opposed to his 2.72 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home. The White Sox have lost 7 of their last 9 road games with Rodon facing a team with a wining record. Lastly, because Chicago is hitting only .246 this season, they fall into a historical “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 66% effective since 1997. Rodon is allowing only 4.41 hits per start — but road underdogs hitting below .260 with a starting pitcher that does not allow more than 5.5 hits per start now facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or lower have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (priced in the +110 to -155 price range) in 60 of the last 91 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: The Indians are priced well above my -150 price threshold to invest in them straight-up tonight. But with the Run-Line priced in the -120 range, Cleveland offers a nice proposition minus the -1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Indians (922) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-18 |
Rockies -131 v. Giants |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-131 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (911) with the money-line versus the Colorado Rockies (912) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Chris Stratton. THE SITUATION: Colorado (81-65) has won eight of their last eleven games after they defeating Arizona on Wednesday by a 5-4 score. San Francisco (68-79) has lost eleven straight games after their 2-1 loss to Atlanta on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado has won 31 of their last 46 games after a win — and they have won 22 of their last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Rockies have won 7 of their last 8 games on the road after scoring at least seven runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games on the road. They give the ball to Anderson who is 6-8 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in twenty-nine starts this year. The sabermetrics suggest he should be giving up at least a half run less per game given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 4.21 and 4.22 moving forward. The left-hander has been more effective away from Coors Field where he has a 1.24 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in thirteen starts on the road as compared to his 1.37 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average when at home. Colorado has won 4 of their last 5 road games with Anderson pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. He should fare well against this Giants team that is hitting only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .202 batting average along with a .255 On-Baser Percentage and an OPS of .547 over that span. San Francisco has lost 6 of their last 8 home games against teams using a left-handed starting pitcher — and they have lost 6 straight games against starting-pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. San Francisco has lost 13 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have 13 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. And while the Giants have not scored more than three runs in four straight games, they have then lost 12 of their last 15 games after failing to score more than three runs in four straight games. Furthermore, San Fran has lost 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record while also losing 5 straight games at home. They counter with Stratton who is 9-9 with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has a 1.54 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .299 as compared in eleven starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. The Giants have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Stratton pitching after a loss. He faces a hot-hitting Rockies lineup that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .297 batting average along with a .336 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .859 in those games. Lastly, Colorado has won 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants are in the tank at this point of the last few weeks of the season while Colorado is fighting for their playoff lives. Expect the Rockies to pile on the San Francisco losing streak. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year is with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (911) with the money-line versus the Colorado Rockies (912) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Chris Stratton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-18 |
Dodgers v. Cardinals +1.5 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler. Los Angeles (80-67) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-7 score in St. Louis over the Cardinals.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: St. Louis (81-66) has bounced-back to win 19 of their last 26 games after a loss —and they have won 17 of their last 23 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also won 20 of their last 29 games after a loss by at least two runs. And in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record, St. Louis has won 6 of these games. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 8-6 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.88 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP in ten starts as compared to his 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road. The Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also lost 13 of their last 18 second games to a new series. They counter with Beuhler who is 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander not been as effective when pitching on the road where he has a 4.07 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in nine starts on the road as compared to his 2.32 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP in ten starts at home. The Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Buehler after a loss. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because Buehler has a WHIP of 0.96 over his last five starts, St. Louis is supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 64% effective over the last five seasons. The Cardinals score 5.7 Runs-Per-Game — and National League teams that score at least 4.5 Runs-Per-Game now facing a National League team using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00 or less over their last five games have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced up to -130) while also covering the -1.5 Run-Line when priced up to -160) in 117 of the last 183 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are intriguing money-line underdogs in this spot — but with the price of the valuable +1.5 Run-Line being priced below my -150 threshold, my preferred play is to take advantage of the insurance offered by +1.5 Runs. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the St. Louis Cardinals (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-18 |
Braves v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the San Francisco Giants (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (81-64) has won four straight games after they won Game Two of their series with the Giants last night by a 4-1 score for the second straight day.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Atlanta has also seen the Under go 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Sanchez who is 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in eleven starts. Sanchez is also better during day games where he sports a 2.16 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in six starts. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Sanchez facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this Giants team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .220 batting average along with a .255 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .622 during that span. San Francisco (68-78) has played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Giants have lost nine straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Under is 7-1-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. San Fran has also played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Holland who is 7-8 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty-one starts this year. The left-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP in fourteen starts. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home with Holland on the hill. Together, these team trends produce our specific 72-12-3 combined angle for this situation. Holland has also been more effective on day games where he has a 2.54 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in eleven stats.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams for this afternoon getaway game. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the San Francisco Giants (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-10-18 |
Rangers v. Angels -128 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-128 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (924) versus the Texas Rangers (923) listing both starting pitchers Jaime Barria and Mike Minor. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (71-72) has won four straight games after their 1-0 win in Chicago over the White Sox yesterday. Texas (61-82) has lost four in a row with their 7-3 loss at Oakland yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 4 straight games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. And while the Angels have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games, they have then won 20 of their last 29 games after not allowing more than three runs in at least two straight games. Los Angeles has also won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record while also winning 5 straight games at home against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Barria who is 10-8 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in twenty-two starts. Barria has been outstanding as of late as he owns a 2.25 ERA over his last five starts. The right-hander has been a bit better at home where he has a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in eleven starts as compared to his 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .249. Barria has enjoyed pitching against the Rangers this year as he is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA against them this year. The Angels have won 6 of their last 8 games with Barria on the mound. He should fare well against this Rangers team that has lost 5 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. Texas has lost 7 of their last 9 games after a loss — and they have also lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Rangers’ bullpen has logged-in 9 innings of work in their last two games — and they have then lost 28 of their last 39 games after their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. They counter with Minor who is 11-7 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he is saddled with a 5.79 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP in eleven starts. Minor’s teams have lost 16 of their last 24 games when he is making the start in the month of September. He faces an Angels team that is scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .269 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .731 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams moving in the opposite direction right now — and Barria should outpitch Minor in this contest. 10* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (924) versus the Texas Rangers (923) listing both starting pitchers Jaime Barria and Mike Minor. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-18 |
Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: Houston (89-53) has won seven straight games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-3 score against the Red Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Houston has not allowed more than three runs in eight straight games, they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three runs in at least four straight games. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Keuchel who is 11-10 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 3.27 mark. Houston has played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Keuchel pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to -125 range. He faces a Red Sox team that is hitting only .249 over their last seven games with an OPS of .709 in those games with both stats far below their .268 batting average and .774 OPS for the season. Boston (97-46) has played 22 of their last 31 home games when playing with revenge from a loss in their last game with their opponents. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Porcello who is 16-7 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander should be seeing better results given his SIERA and xFIP that both project an ERA of 3.71 and 3.84 moving forward. Porcello has been more effective at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 on the road. Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with Porcello facing a team with a winning record. He faces an Astros team that has seen the Under go 11-3-2 in their last 16 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect playoff intensity for this nationally-televised game — and that should translate into a low-scoring game with two good starting pitchers on the mound. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-18 |
Marlins v. Pirates -143 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) versus the Miami Marlins (901) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Wei-Yin Chen. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (70-71) has won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 5-3 score over the Marlins.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh has won 8 of their last 12 games after winning four straight games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, while the Pirates have now allowed more than three runs during their four-game winning streak, they have then won 9 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. They give the ball to Nova who is 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.30 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in twelve starts. Pittsburgh has won 8 of their last 10 home games with Nova facing a team with a winning record. Nova also owns a 3.12 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in his ten starts during the day — and the Pirates have won 8 of their last 10 home games with Nova facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Marlins team that has lost 20 of their last 29 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Miami (56-85) has lost two of their last three games after surrendering the lead in the bottom of the 7th inning last night — and they have lost 13 of their last 17 games after blowing a save in their last game. The Marlins have not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than four runs in at least five straight contests. Miami has also lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Chen who is 6-9 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander has really struggled on the road where he sees his ERA skyrocket to a 9.35 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .335 in ten starts. Chen also has a 5.35 ERA in day games. The Marlins have lost 8 of their last 11 road games with Chen on the mound. He faces a Pirates team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Chen is a nightmare when he pitching on the road. The Pirates opened as -160 or so favorites but that money line has dropped to below my -150 price threshold — so let’s attack in this favorite situation behind Nova. 20* MLB Saturday Afternoon Matinee with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) versus the Miami Marlins (901) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Wei-Yin Chen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-18 |
Braves +1.5 v. Diamondbacks |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-150 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (963) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (964) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (77-63) snapped their three-game losing streak last night with their 7-6 victory in Arizona last night in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has won 9 of their last 13 games after a win — and they have also won 17 of their last 25 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Braves have also won 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Atlanta has won 17 of their last 28 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Gausman who is 14-14 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The right-hander has been outstanding since being liberated from Baltimore in his trade to Atlanta. Over his last ten starts, Gausman has a 2.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP — and he is 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA over his last five starts. Gausman has been more effective on the road all season where he owns a 3.63 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP in twelve starts. He allowed only one earned run in his last start (three runs total) against the Pirates — and his teams have won 5 of their last 7 games with Gausman pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in his last start. He faces a cold Diamondbacks lineup that is scoring 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .224 Batting Average with a .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .633 over that span. Arizona (75-65) has lost five of their last six games — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 games after dropping at least four of their last five contests. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have lost 18 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record while also losing 13 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road (Atlanta is 40-29 on the road). They counter with Corbin who is 10-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.25 mark in his fourteen starts at home. And while Corbin has allowed only two earned runs in his last two starts, Arizona has lost 6 of their last 8 games with Corbin pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight starts. He faces a Braves team that has won 9 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta offers us a nice investment opportunity as an underdog in this situation. With the price for the Braves with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line dropping to my -150 price threshold in a majority of spots, that is my preferred play given these parameters. 25* MLB National League Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Atlanta Braves (963) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (964) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-18 |
Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Jon Gray. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (76-64) begins their series having lost two of their last three games after their 7-3 loss to the Mets on Wednesday. Colorado (77-62) has won five straight games with their 5-3 win over the Giants on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Under is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a loss. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Kershaw who is 6-5 with a 2.40 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has a 1.98 ERA with 0.86 WHIP in his last ten starts — and he owns a 2.00 ERA over his last five starts. Kershaw has ben more effective on the road where he owns a 1.98 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP in nine starts. The Under is 26-9-2 in the Dodgers’ last 37 road games with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total with Kershaw squaring off against the Rockies. Colorado is hitting just .226 over their last seven games with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 during that span. The Rockies also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Colorado has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total are scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Additionally, the Under is 22-7-1 in the Rockies’ last 30 games at home with the Under also being 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Gray who is 11-7 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The sabermetrics indicate Gray should be seeing much better numbers than that with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.51 and 3.30 respectively. Over his last nine starts, Gray has fulfilled the promise of these analytics as he owns a 3.08 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP in those games. The right-hander has been even better at home at Coors Field where he owns a 2.43 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP over his last five starts. Colorado has played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Gray on the hill — and they have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Gray facing the Dodgers. He should continue to find success against this Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .218 batting average along with a .274 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .670 during those games.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitcher’s duel between Kershaw and Gray even at Coors Field (with the Total raised to the 9-9.5 range) between these two teams in the heat of the NL West title. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-18 |
Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 |
|
7-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (76-63) has lost three straight games after their 9-8 loss to Boston on Tuesday. Arizona (75-64) snapped their four-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 6-0 victory over San Diego.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss. The Under is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games when playing on the road. They give the ball to Sanchez who is 6-5 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twenty starts. The veteran right-hander has been even better when on the road where he has a 2.85 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 in ten starts. The Under is 4-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 6 road games with Sanchez on the hill. He faces a cold Diamondbacks’ lineup that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .197 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .260 and an opponent’s batting average of .588. Arizona has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams using starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The Diamondbacks had not scored more than five runs since August 18th before Tuesday’s six-run output. Before that game with the Padres, Arizona had scored only 14 combined runs in their previous eight games. The Diamondbacks have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. The Diamondbacks have also played 4 straight games Under the Total at home. They counter with Greinke who is 13-9 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.16 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in fourteen starts. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Greinke pitching at home. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .230 batting average along with a .295 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .690 over that span. Atlanta has played 7 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low scoring game between these two teams with offenses that are struggling. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-05-18 |
Yankees v. A's +1.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oakland A’s (974) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: New York (87-52) snapped their two-game losing streak last night with their 5-1 victory over the A’s in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OAKLAND PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Yankees have lost 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have also lost 26 of their last 44 road games after a victory by at least four runs. Additionally, New York has lost 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Severino who is 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-eight starts this season. The right-hander has struggled with command with his two-seam fastball this summer — and that has resulted in a 6.32 ERA over his last ten starts. Severino has not been as effective away from Yankee Stadium this year as he sees his ERA rise to a 3.77 along with a 1.22 WHIP in fourteen starts. Oakland (83-57) has bounced-back to win 19 of their last 26 games after a loss — and they have also won 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by at leas four runs. The A’s only managed two hits last night — but they have won 11 of their last 14 games after failing to bang out at least four hits in their last game and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Oakland has also won 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The A’s remain very tough at home where they have won 24 of their last 33 games. They counter with Fiers who is 10-6 with a 3.38 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has a 2.93 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP over his last ten starts. He also has been better at home with the A’s and previously with the Tigers this year where he has an ERA of 2.89. Fiers teams have won 6 of their last 7 home games when he is making the start with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. His teams have also won 9 of their last 11 games when he is pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Yankees team that is hitting only .214 batting average with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .699 over their last seven games. New York has also lost 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15. Lastly, because Oakland averages 4.8 Runs-Per-Game — and this helps place them into a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 66% effective since 1997. Home underdogs who score 4.4 to 4.9 Runs-Per-Game who have a batting average no better than .250 or their last twenty games facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or less have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 107 of the last 162 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s are live home dogs in the final game of this series. With the price of the valuable +1.5 Run-Line being below my -150 threshold, I consider that the much better investment opportunity. 25* MLB American League Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Oakland A’s (974) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-05-18 |
Rays -125 v. Blue Jays |
|
3-10 |
Loss |
-125 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (965) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (966) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Aaron Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (75-63) has won four straight games — as well as thirteen of their last fifteen contests — after their 4-0 win over the Blue Jays in the second game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 10 of their last 12 games after a win. Additionally, The Rays have not only won 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 19 of their last 29 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. Tampa Bay has also won 4 straight games on the road — and they have won 6 straight games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 1-4 with a 3.95 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in 86 2/3 innings of work. The sabermetrics are bullish on the right-hander which is one of the reasons why the Rays were excited to acquire him from the Pirates in the Chris Archer deal last month. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.49 and 3.51 moving forward. Glasnow has been more effective on the road where he has a 1.07 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .171 in 39 1/3 innings as compared to his 1.37 WHIP and .228 opponent’s batting average when at home. He should thrive against this Blue Jays lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .299 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .670 during that span. Toronto (62-76) has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 19 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Blue Jays have lost 7 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have also lost 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, Toronto has also lost 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Sanchez who is 3-5 with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has been a bit worse at home where he owns a 1.65 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .271 in nine starts as compared to his 1.60 WHIP and .271 opponent’s batting average of .271. The Blue Jays have lost 10 of their last 13 games with Sanchez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Rays’ team hitting the ball well as they are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .287 Batting Average with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .784 over that span. Toronto has won 13 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 — and they have also won 16 of their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams moving in opposite directions as the Blue Jays have lost seven of their last nine games while the Rays still have some hope of snagging the second American League Wild Card spot. 20* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (965) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (966) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Aaron Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-04-18 |
Angels v. Rangers -115 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (920) versus the Los Angeles Angels (919) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Andrew Heaney. THE SITUATION: Texas (60-78) saw their two-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 3-1 loss to the Angels in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas has won 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. The Rangers have also won 27 of their last 37 home games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range. They give the ball to Minor who is 10-7 with a 4.33 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in twenty-four starts. After a slow start, Minor has been much better over the summers months. Since June, Minor has a 3.21 ERA with 59 strikeouts and just 17 walks in 75 2/3 innings of work — and he was 3-1 with a 2.55 ERA in the month of August. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.30 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 as compared to his 5.79 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in eleven starts. Texas has won 4 straight home games with Minor facing a team with a losing record. Additionally, Minor has only allowed two combined earned runs over his last two starts — and his teams have won 22 of their last 29 games when he has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight starts. He should thrive again tonight against this Angels team that is hitting only .215 over their last seven games with a .288 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .588 over that span. Los Angeles (67-71) has lost 41 of their last 60 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Angels have also not only lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win but they have lost 17 of their last 22 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. This will be their sixth straight game on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 20 road games after playing at least five prior games on the road. Los Angeles has also lost 27 of their last 40 games on the road. They counter with Heaney who is 8-8 with a 4.09 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The lefty has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.94 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .266. The Angels have lost 8 of their last 9 road games with Heaney pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range.
FINAL TAKE: Minor should give the Rangers a significant edge over the Angels relying on Heaney pitching away from home. 25* MLB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (920) versus the Los Angeles Angels (919) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Andrew Heaney. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-18 |
Yankees v. A's -121 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (970) versus the New York Yankees (969) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and C.C. Sabathia. THE SITUATION: Oakland (81-56) has won two of their last three games after their 8-2 win over the Mariners yesterday. New York (86-50) saw their two-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 11-7 loss to Detroit.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland had scored seven runs in their two previous games before plating eight runners yesterday. The A’s have won 9 of their last 10 home games after scoring at least seven runs in their last two contests. Oakland has also won 30 of their last 42 home games when favored at least at the -110 price. They give the ball to Cahill who is 5-3 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander looks to rebound from a rough outing on the road where he allowed four runs (three earned) in just 3 1/3 innings of work in Houston. Cahill should be very focused to redeem himself from that outing — and returning home will help where he sports a 0.85 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in eight starts. His teams have won 12 of their last 14 games at home when he is making the start. Cahill also prefers pitching during the day where he has a 3.53 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in eight starts. New York has lost 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. The Yankees have also lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They counter with Sabathia who is 7-5 with a 3.36 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.25 and 4.31 moving forward. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 4.27 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in eleven starts. He faces an A’s team that has won 10 of their last 11 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, New York has lost their last 4 games in Oakland. Together, these team trends produce our specific 83-21 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s have been playing fantastic baseball during the second-half of the season — particularly at home. With Cahill pitching in his familiar confines, Oakland has the advantage over the Yankees with Sabathia pitching on the road. 20* MLB NY Yankees-Oakland ESPN Afternoon Special with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (970) versus the New York Yankees (969) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-18 |
Cardinals +1.5 v. Nationals |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (952) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (76-61) begins this series having lost two straight games after they lost to the Reds yesterday by a 6-4 score. Washington (68-69) has lost three of their last four games after they lost to Milwaukee yesterday by a 9-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: St. Louis has won 17 of their last 21 games after a loss — and they have also won 7 straight opening games to a new series. The Cardinals have also won 10 of their last 11 games on the road. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 8-6 with a 2.87 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The rookie enjoyed a phenomenal month of August where he was 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 32 innings while striking out 38 batters. The right-hander has also been more effective on the road where he has a 2.86 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP in twelve starts. St. Louis has won 4 of their last 5 road games with Flaherty on the hill. Flaherty also thrives in day games where he sports a 2.19 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in seven starts. Washington has lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs — and they have also lost 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road (Cardinals: 39-30 on the road). They counter with Scherzer who is 16-6 with a 2.22 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander is threatening to win yet another Cy Young Award this season — but there are some reasons for optimism that he will not pitch quite as well as those front-line numbers suggest. The sabermetrics indicate he should being giving up a half to almost a full run more per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.75 and 3.09 moving forward. Scherzer sees his ERA rise to a 2.37 mark when pitching at home — and his ERA is 2.27 with a 1.01 WHIP when pitching in day games. The Nationals have lost 6 of their last 9 home games with Scherzer starting while being favored in the -125 to -175 price range. He faces a Cardinals team that has won 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have also won 8 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, St. Louis is supported by an empirical Run-Line angle that has been 74% effective over the last five seasons. Scherzer has a 2.50 ERA over his last three starts — but National League home favorites using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or less who has an ERA of 2.50 or better over his last three starts have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -115 to +160 price range) in 130 of the last 176 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: Washington is playing out the string while dumping players left and right — they are 8 games behind the Braves in the NL East and 8 1/2 games behind in the NL Wildcard race. Scherzer is awesome — but so is Flaherty. With the valuable +1.5 Run-Line price below my -150 threshold, let’s attack. 10* MLB Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the St. Louis Cardinals (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (952) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (74-62) has won seven of their last eight games with their 3-2 win over the Diamondbacks last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And while Los Angeles has not allowed more than four runs in their last nine games, they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Dodgers have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Buehler who is 6-4 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.43 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP along with a .199 opponent’s batting average in nine starts (ten games). Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with Buehler pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a slumping Diamondbacks team that is scoring just 2.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .192 batting average along with a .226 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .536 over that span. Arizona (74-62) has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a loss. The Diamondbacks have also played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Arizona has also played their 7 games Under the Total against fellow NL West foes. They counter with Buchholz who is 7-2 with a 2.07 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he sports a 1.73 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in nine starts. The Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Buchholz pitching on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Expect another low-scoring game between two starting pitchers that are in the groove right now. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-18 |
Mets v. Giants -125 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (952) versus the New York Mets (951) listing both starting pitchers Derek Holland and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (68-68) has won five of their last six games with their 7-0 shutout win over the Mets last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also won 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Holland who is 7-8 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not allowed more than two earned runs in six of last seven starts. Holland has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239. The Giants have won 5 straight home games with Holland facing a team with a losing record. Holland has also thrived in day games where he sports a 2.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. His teams have won 21 of their last 28 day games with him pitching on the hill. He faces a Mets team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. New York (59-75) has lost four of their last five games — and they have lost a decisive 35 of their last 52 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have also lost 23 of their last 32 road games priced in the +/- 125 range. Furthermore, New York has lost 27 of their last 32 second games to a new series. They counter with Matz who is 5-11 with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 5.03 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in twelve starts. While he comes off a nice outing where he allowed only one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of work at home against Texas. The Mets have lost 5 of their last 7 games with Matz pitching after a Quality Start. Together, these team trends produce our specific 132-49 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants are playing good baseball right now while the Mets are playing out the string. Holland should outduel Matz in this showdown of southpaws. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (952) versus the New York Mets (951) listing both starting pitchers Derek Holland and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-18 |
Mariners v. A's UNDER 8 |
|
5-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Mike Fiers. THE SITUATION: Seattle (75-59) snapped their three-game losing streak last night with their 7-1 victory over the A’s.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have seen the Under go 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Leake who is 8-8 with a 4.03 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.78 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Mariners have played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Leake facing a team with a winning record. Oakland (80-55) has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the A’s have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Fiers who is 10-6 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has a nice 2.49 ERA at home in fifteen starts. He has been on fire over his last five starts where he owns a 1.38 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP spanning 26 innings of work. He has allowed only one earned run in his last two starts — and his teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when he has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight starts. Fiers’ teams have also played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total with him making a start at night. Lastly, in the last 9 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low scoring game between these two teams in the thick of the AL West playoff hunt. 10* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Mike Fiers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-18 |
Orioles v. Royals -123 |
Top |
2-9 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Brad Keller and Andrew Cashner. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (40-94) has won three straight games after they defeated the Blue Jays on Wednesday by a 10-5 score. Kansas City (42-91) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five games — with their 9-2 win over Detroit on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Break up the Orioles with this winning streak! But Baltimore has played their last seven games at home. Now this team goes on the road where they have lost 20 of their last 24 games in the second-half of the season — and they have also lost 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Furthermore, the Orioles have lost 12 of their last 14 games in Kansas City against the Royals. Baltimore has not responded well after off days as they have lost 15 of their last 16 games after having a day off. The Orioles have also lost 21 of their last 29 games after scoring at least five runs — and they have lost 40 of their last 53 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Baltimore has not committed an error in four straight games — and they have lost 27 of their last 36 games after not committing an error in at least two straight games. They give the ball to Cashner who is 4-12 with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he owns a 5.14 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in twelve starts. The Orioles have lost 6 straight road games with Cashner facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Royals offense that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .285 batting average along with a .329 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .851 over that span. Kansas City has also won 4 of their last 5 home games when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The Royals have won 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. KC has also won 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Royals are very reliable when they are fairly significant favorites as they have won 45 of their last 70 games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range. But the reason why this situation pops is the opportunity to back Keller who is 6-5 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 105 1/3 innings. The rookie right-hander has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 3.23 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 55 2/3 innings at home. Kansas City has won 5 of their last 7 games with Keller making the start.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams are battling to avoid the basement this season — but there can be very good betting situations even between two bad teams. Baltimore has been very bad on the road this season while the Royals play their best at home — and Kansas City has a big edge at starting pitcher tonight. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Brad Keller and Andrew Cashner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-18 |
Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: Chicago (78-54) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped last night with their 10-3 loss to the Mets yesterday. Atlanta (74-58) looks to rebound from an 8-5 loss to Tampa Bay yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Montgomery who is coming off the disabled list to return to their now six-man rotation. The left-hander has a 4-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 99 1/3 innings of work. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.96 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 54 2/3 innings of work both starting and out of the pen. Montgomery did not allow an earned run in his last start where he pitched 6 innings at Kansas City — and the Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games when Montgomery registered a Quality Start in his last start on the mound. He faces a Braves team that has seen the Under go 16-4-1 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta (74-58) has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have also played 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 10-8 with a 2.67 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.63 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in twelve home starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Atlanta.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams that are in the heat of the National League playoff race. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-18 |
Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 12:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (73-60) outlasted the Reds in the second game of this series by a 13-12 score in 10 innings last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have now played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total in the month of August — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL Central opponents. Additionally, the Over is 6-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 8 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Miley who is 2-2 with a 2.32 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics are screaming out for regression for this left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.97 and 4.56 moving forward this season. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miley making the start. He faces a Reds team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cincinnati (57-75) has also seen the Over go 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 52 day games, the Reds have played 31 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Reed who is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings of work since being called up from Triple-A earlier this month. Reed has logged-in 80 innings at the major league level in his career where he has not been as effective at home. The left-hander has a 7.05 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .358 in 37 innings at home as compared to his 5.44 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP on the road. Furthermore, Reed has been rocked for a 9.39 ERA with a 2.05 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings during day games as compared to his 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at night. Cincinnati has played 8 straight games Over the Total with Reed pitching as an underdog. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that was scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games before yesterday along with a .290 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .827. Lastly, Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: It should be another high-scoring affair between these two teams in this afternoon getaway game at the Great American Ballpark. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-29-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants +108 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (910) with the money-line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (67-67) has won four straight games with their 1-0 win over the Diamondbacks in the second game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Giants have won 4 straight games at home — and they have also won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. This is San Francisco’s sixth straight game at home — and they have won 20 of their last 27 home games after playing their previous five games at home at AT&T Park. And while San Fran shut out the Diamondbacks by a 2-0 score in the opening game of this series, they have then won 11 of their last 12 home games after not allowing no more than two runs in two straight games. They give the ball to Rodriguez who is 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in thirteen starts (15 games) this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.01 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .178 in eight starts (9 games). Rodriguez came off the disabled list to make his start back on August 24th — and the Giants have won 5 straight games with Rodriguez pitching with four days of rest. He should pitch well against this Arizona team (72-60) who are scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .229 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .618 during that span. The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five games — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Arizona has also lost 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a shutout loss to their opponent. They counter with Godley who is 13-7 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has struggled when on the road where he has a 5.45 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in fourteen starts. Arizona has lost 8 of their last 11 third games of a series with Godley on the hill. He faces a Giants team that has won 20 of their last 29 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks have been streaky all season — and they are in the middle of one of their bad spells right now. With the Giants having the advantage with the two starting pitchers, they offer a nice play as a small money-line underdog. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (910) with the money-line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-29-18 |
Brewers v. Reds +1.5 |
Top |
13-12 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Reds (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Matt Harvey and Freddy Peralta. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (57-75) snapped their five-game losing streak last night with their 9-7 victory over the Brewers in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Reds have now won 4 straight games at home — and they have won 6 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Harvey who is 6-7 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP — although his 6-5 record with a 4.14 ERA and 1.20 WHIP since joining with Cincinnati convinced the franchise to not trade him to a contender (like these Brewers) this month. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching at home where he owns a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in ten starts (eleven games) as compared to his 1.49 WHIP and .310 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts (fifteen games). The Reds have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Harvey on the hill — and Harvey’s teams have won an impressive 8 of their last 9 home games with him pitching as an underdog. He faces a Brewers team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee (73-60) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers’ bullpen pitched 6 2/3 innings last night — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after a game where their bullpen logged in at least 6 innings of work. Furthermore, Milwaukee has lost 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record — and they have also lost 13 of their last 19 games against fellow NL Central opponents. They counter with Peralta who is 6-4 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in thirteen starts. But while the right-hander has been better at home with a 2.81 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in five starts, his ERA rises to a 5.06 mark along with a 1.42 WHIP in eight starts on the road. The Brewers have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Peralta on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati is an intriguing underdog in this situation but my preferred play is to invest in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that price being below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Cincinnati Reds (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Matt Harvey and Freddy Peralta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (66-67) has won three straight games with their 2-0 shutout win over the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 18-6-3 the Giants’ last 27 games after a victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is 5-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been outstanding once again at home this year where he owns a 1.71 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in seven starts. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Giants’ last 8 home games with Bumgarner on the hill — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home with Bumgarner facing the Diamondbacks. He should continue this success tonight when facing this Arizona team (72-58) that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 games after a loss. And while Arizona has lost three of their last four games, they have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. The Diamondbacks have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Buchholz who is 7-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he sports a 1.97 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in eight starts. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Buchholz on the hill. He has benefited from a fairly easy stretch of opponents — and he will be facing a cold Giants team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .591 over that span. Lastly, the Under is 22-10-1 in the last 33 meetings between these two teams in San Francisco.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitchers’ duel between these two teams facing slumping lineups. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-18 |
Mets v. Cubs -127 |
|
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (956) versus the New York Mets (955) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Jacob DeGrom. THE SITUATION: Chicago (77-53) has won six straight games with their 7-4 win over the Mets in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 5 straight games after a win — and they have won 5 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cubs have won a decisive 41 of their last 53 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Hamels who is 9-9 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been liberated since being traded over to the Cubs from the Rangers — he is 4-0 with a 0.79 ERA in five starts since that trade. Hamels also seems to love pitching in Wrigley Field where he owns a 1.58 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP in 8 career starts spanning 57 innings of work. Hamels’ teams have won 22 of their last 28 games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range with him on the mound making the start. He faces a struggling Mets’ team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .226 batting average along with a .269 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .676 over that span. New York (58-73) has lost 15 of their last 22 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 36 of their last 52 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Mets have lost 31 of their last 46 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while New York has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then lost 17 of their last 22 games after playing two straight Overs. The Mets have also lost 21 of their last 30 games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with DeGrom who is 8-8 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has been outstanding this season — and he has allowed only one earned run over his last two starts. But the Mets have lost 7 of their last 8 games with DeGrom pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in two straight starts. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .308 batting average with a .364 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .900 in those games. The Cubs have won 5 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: DeGrom is having a great year — but Hamels should be able to match him while being backed by a much better team. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (956) versus the New York Mets (955) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Jacob DeGrom. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-18 |
Rockies -140 v. Angels |
Top |
7-10 |
Loss |
-140 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (914) versus the Colorado Rockies (913) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Odrisamer Despaigne. THE SITUATION: Colorado (71-59) has lost two of their last three games after their 12-3 loss to St. Louis yesterday. Los Angeles (63-68)has lost six straight games with their 3-1 loss to Houston yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado has bounced-back to win 4 straight games after a loss — and they have won 7 straight road games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Additionally, the Rockies have won 4 straight games on the road — and they have won 10 straight road games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range. They give the ball to Gray who is 10-7 with a 4.67 EEA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander was underperforming for the first-half of the season in relation to his peripheral numbers — and Colorado eventually sent him down to the minors for a spell. But since returning from the minor leagues, Gray is 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA in seven starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.34 and 3.11 moving forward. Additionally, Gray is getting great run support as his team is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over his last ten starts. Gray has also been a bit better away from Coors Field given his 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .247 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .263. The Rockies have won 4 straight road games with Gray on the hill. And while Gray comes off a strong outing where he allowed only two runs in 6 1/3 innings of work against the Padres — and Colorado has won 6 straight games with Gray following up a Quality Start. He should fare well against this Angels team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .274 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .650 over that span. Los Angeles has lost 5 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Angels have lost 5 straight games after a loss — and they have lost 5 straight games at home. Additionally, LA has lost 25 of their last 32 home games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Despaigne who is 2-2 with a 6.35 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings of work. Over his last two starts, the right-hander has allowed 8 runs in those 8 innings of work. He faces a Rockies team scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .280 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .795 over that span. Colorado has won 19 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have also won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado is in the thick of the NL West and NL Wildcard races while the Angels are playing out the string. Gray is undervalued right now given his mediocre ERA but he is pitching much better than what that 4.67 number suggests. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (914) versus the Colorado Rockies (913) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Odrisamer Despaigne. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-18 |
White Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (907) and the New York Yankees (908) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Masahiro Tanaka. THE SITUATION: Chicago (51-79) has won three straight games with their 7-2 win at Detroit yesterday. New York (83-47) has won eight of their last nine games after they defeated the Orioles in Baltimore yesterday by a 5-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-5-2 in the Yankees’ last 18 games after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 opening games to a new series Over the Total. Additionally, the Over is 24-11-2 in New York’s last 37 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 9-4 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.27 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in eight starts. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Tanaka on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting White Sox team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .799 over that span. Chicago has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The White Sox have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 games on the road for Chicago. They counter with Rodon who is 5-3 with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.71 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP but those numbers rise to a 3.65 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in his seven starts on the road. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Rodon pitching with four days of rest. He faces a Yankees’ lineup that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .751 over that span. Lastly, the Over is 8-2-2 in the Bronx Bombers’ last 12 games facing left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With the White Sox bats finally woken up, expect a high-scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (907) and the New York Yankees (908) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-18 |
Yankees v. Orioles OVER 8.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dylan Bundy. THE SITUATION: New York (82-47) has won four straight games — as well as seven of their last eight contests — with their 5-1 win over the Orioles yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-4-2 in the Yankees’ last 17 games after a win. New York won the second game of this series by a 10-3 score — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by at least four runs. They give the ball to Severino who is 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has struggled as of late as he has lost command of his fastball which has then has made his deceptive cutter less effective. Over his last six starts, Severino has a 7.26 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP. Even at top form, the right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.81 mark with a 1.23 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Yankees have played 8 straight road games Over the Total with Severino on the hill — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games in the second-half of the season with Severino making the start. He faces an Orioles team that has seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while Baltimore (37-93) has not hit a home run in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to hit a home run for at least two straight games. They counter with Bundy who is 7-12 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has been even worse at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.67 mark with a 1.41 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Orioles have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games with Bundy on the hill. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .281 batting average along with a .354 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .801 over that span. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 games between these two teams when playing in Baltimore.
FINAL TAKE: Something is definitely off with Severino right now — and those negative vibes have snowballed to impact his confidence. But he is backed by a hot-hitting lineup right now that should feast off of Bundy. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dylan Bundy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-18 |
Red Sox v. Rays +100 |
|
1-9 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Boston Red Sox (965) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (69-61) has won seven straight games with their 5-1 win over the Red Sox yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 17 of their last 22 games after a win by at least four runs. The Rays have also won 35 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 55 games at home, Tampa Bay has won a decisive 38 of these contests. They give the ball to Snell who is 15-5 with a 2.07 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The left-hander has been very tough at home where he sports a 1.02 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP in ten starts. The Rays have won 13 of their last 16 home gamers with Snell facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Red Sox team that has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Boston (90-41) is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .675 over their last seven games. The Red Sox have lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Boston has also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 road games with the number set at 7 or less. They counter with Eovaldi who is 5-5 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has struggled as of late wearing a Red Sox uniform after being acquired from the Rays as he has a 6.23 ERA over his last three starts while allowing 27 hits in just 13 innings of work. Eovaldi also sees his ERA rise to a 5.29 mark with a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280 in nine starts. Eovaldi has lost 6 of his last 7 starts on the road with the number posted in the 7 to 7.5 range. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .300 batting average along with a .385 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .828 over that span. Lastly, Tampa Bay has won 11 of their last 12 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: We are not going to get rich betting against the Red Sox this season — but they are cold right now and they are putting out a starting pitcher who is struggling as well. Tampa Bay is playing great baseball right now and they have their ace on the hill. 10* MLB Boston-Tampa Bay TBS-Special with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Boston Red Sox (965) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-78) rebounded from a 5-0 loss on Thursday to shutout the Braves on Friday with their 1-0 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have now seen the Under go 8-2-2 in their last 12 games at home. Miami is a heavy underdog in this game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 price range. They give the ball to Chen who is 4-9 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. But while the right-hander has been a disaster on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.34 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .335 in ten starts, he has been quite good at home where he sports a 2.05 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in ten starts at home. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Marlins’ last 11 home games with Chen on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Braves team that went into Friday night scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .243 batting average over their last seven games along with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .664 over that span. Atlanta (77-56) has played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has now played 15 of their last 23 games this month Under the Total. The Under is also now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Sanchez who is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of 1.09 in seventeen starts. The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.06 with a 1.08 WHOP buoyed by an opponent’s batting average of .203. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Braves’ last 5 road games with Sanchez on the hill — and Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Sanchez pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Marlins’ team that has seen the Under go 5-2-2 in their last 9 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Runs have been hard to come by in this series with just seven runs scored between these two teams in the first two games of this series. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-18 |
Royals v. Rays UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Tyler Gasnow. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (66-61) won the opening game of this series last night with their 6-3 win over the Royals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Tampa Bay’s bullpen did pitch for 7 innings last night — but they have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched for at least 7 innings. The Rays have not allowed more than three runs in four straight contests — and they have played 27 of their last 39 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in four straight games. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 74 2/3 innings between Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. The Rays have to be overjoyed with the right-hander so far as he posted a 3.37 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings of work. Glasnow has always had great potential as evidenced by the 24 strikeouts he has posted in a Tampa Bay uniform — but his control has been the concern. Glasnow has only issued six bases-on-balls since becoming a Ray. The sabermetrics are bullish as well with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.49 and 3.34 moving forward. He has been more effective at home this year where his ERA drops to a 2.77 mark — and his teams have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total in the month of August. He should fare well against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .234 batting average along with a .286 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .681 over that span. Kansas City (38-89) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Royals have lost their last seven games with the Rays — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when having lost at least five straight games to their opponent. They counter with Duffy who is 7-11 with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.68 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in fifteen starts. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Duffy on the hill. He faces a Tampa Bay team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Lastly, the Rays have played 6 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 — and the Under is 19-6-2 in their last 27 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 115-36-1 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is in the 7-7.5 range for these two light-hitting teams — and that is a testament to the talent of Glasnow that finally seems to be unleashed with his improved control. 10* MLB Thursday Night O/U First Pitch with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Tyler Gasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-18 |
Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
101 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (70-57) has won four of their last five games with their 5-2 win over the Dodgers in the second game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games after a victory. The Under is also 6-2-1 in St. Louis’ last 9 games on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 7-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.00 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in eleven starts. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Cardinals’ last 8 road games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Dodgers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (67-60) has seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 5-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 6 games at home. They counter with Buehler who is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in fifteen starts. The rookie right-hander has been tough at home where his ERA drops to a 2.77 mark along with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in eight starts. The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with Buehler on the hill. He faces a slumping Cardinals’ lineup that is hitting only .208 over their last seven games with a .278 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668 during that span. Lastly, the Under is 3-0-1 in St. Louis’ last 4 games when facing right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 55-11-4 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: In this battle of star rookie pitchers, expect both phenoms to rise to the occasion on national television and pitch very well. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-18 |
Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 |
|
4-10 |
Loss |
-104 |
4 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (973) and the Boston Red Sox (974) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Brian Johnson. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (73-52) has won nine of their last ten games after they won the second game of this series over the Red Sox by a 6-3 score last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Indians’ last 5 games after a win — and they have also played 36 of their last 54 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Carrasco who is 15-6 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-three starts this season. The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.14 and 3.12 respectively. Carrasco has also been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 2.55 along with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in twelve starts. The Under is 12-4-1 in Cleveland’s last 17 road games with Carrasco facing a team with a winning record. He faces a slumping Boston lineup that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .225 batting average along with a .276 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .624. The Under is also a decisive 17-4-2 in the Red Sox’s last 23 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston (88-39) has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss as a home favorite — and they were -150 money-line favorites at home last night with Nathan Eovaldi on the hill. The Under is also 11-4-2 in the Red Sox’s last 17 games at home. They counter with Johnson who is 4-3 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 79 innings of work between the bullpen and spot starts. 46 1/3 of these innings were at home where Johnson sees his WHIP drop to a 1.32 mark along with a .253 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.45 WHIP and .271 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Boston has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with Johnson on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has played 4 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Together, these team trends produce our specific 107-35-6 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is set at 9 for this contest which is a bit high for a game with Carrasco on the hill. Johnson should pitch fine before the Red Sox go to their strong bullpen — take the Under. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (973) and the Boston Red Sox (974) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Brian Johnson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-21-18 |
Padres v. Rockies -1.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Robbie Erlin. THE SITUATION: Colorado (68-56) has won four straight games — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 4-2 win in Atlanta on Sunday. San Diego (49-78) has lost six of their last seven games with their 4-3 loss to Arizona on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Padres are in the tank at this point of the season having gone just 12-30 in the second-half of the season. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 games after an off-day. The Padres have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Erlin who is 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP as a starter and out of the pen this year. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.55 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in 31 2/3 innings of work. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Erlin on the hill. He faces a Rockies team that has won 12 of their last 14 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has won 11 of their last 15 games are allowing no more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 25 of their last 38 games after a win by at least two runs. The Rockies have also won 20 of their last 27 home games. They counter with Anderson who is 6-5 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The lefty is better at home in Coors Field where he sports a 3.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twelve starts. Colorado has won 11 of their last 18 home games with Anderson pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He should fare well against this Padres team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .204 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .627. San Diego has lost 20 of their last 26 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Rockies are supported by an empirical situational angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 60% effective since 1997. Anderson has struggled over his last three starts with a 10.70 ERA (but his lone home start over that span saw him allow only one earned run in 6 innings of work against the Dodgers) — and National League home teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4.20 to 4.70 ERA who has an ERA of 7.50 or higher over his last three starts have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 170 of the last 284 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado is playing good baseball right now as they are in the thick of the NL West and wildcard races. They should take care of business against the reeling Padres playing out the string. With the Rockies priced in the -175 price range, let's invest in the -1.5 Run-Line to lower the asking price. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Blowout of the Month with the Colorado Rockies (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Robbie Erlin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-18 |
Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: These two teams have split the first four games of this series after New York (53-69) defeated Philadelphia (68-55) yesterday by a 3-1 score. This series travels south to Williamsport, Pennsylvania for ESPN’s second annual Little League Classic to be played at Bowman Field (with Major League dimensions).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York had been on-fire with their bats just a few days ago — but, alas, they have already begun to cool off after scoring 16 runs on Wednesday before plating 24 runners in the opening game of this series on Thursday which was Game One of the double-header that day. The Mets have a .330 batting average over their last five games — but they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after hitting at least .315 over their last five games. This regression is already taking place as they have just a .202 On-Base Percentage over their last three games — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not having better than a .260 On-Base Percentage over their last three contests. Additionally, New York has played a decisive 51 of their last 83 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Vargas who has been a disappointment this year with a 2-8 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in thirteen starts. But the right-hander has perhaps found his groove again after allowing only two runs in 6 innings of work in his last start against the Orioles. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games with Vargas on the hill — and Vargas’ teams have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total with him making the start for a night game. Vargas faces a Phillies team that has seen the Under go 40-19-2 in their last 61 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The Phillies have also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a loss by no more than two runs. They counter with Pivetta who is 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. While the Mets are the technical home team, this is an unfamiliar environment for Pivetta — yet he pitched 6 scoreless innings in his last start away from Citi Field in Arizona. The Under is 8-1-2 in New York’s last 11 games with Pivetta pitching after a loss — and the Phillies have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total with Pivetta pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Lastly, in the last 12 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: The first Little League Classic was also played in Williamsburg last August with the Pirates defeating the Cardinals by a 6-3 score with Ivan Nova defeating Mike Leake. Expect this contest to see fewer runs. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-18 |
Cubs +131 v. Pirates |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (955) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Chatwood and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Chicago (71-50) has won three straight games after winning their second-straight 1-0 victory over the Pirates in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 5 straight games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Cubs have also won 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have won 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a losing record. The Cubs opened as a small money-line favorite but with their expected starting pitcher Mike Montgomery scratched for Tyler Chatwood, the betting movement has made Chicago a clear money-line underdog in this game. Chatwood is 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA but what scares bettors off (as well as lost him a spot in the Cubs rotation) is his 1.80 WHIP. While Chatwood issues too many bases-on-balls, that is not enough reason for the Chicago to be the underdog in this situation. Part of the problem for Chatwood has been pitching at home where perhaps he puts too much pressure on himself. This was an issue when he pitched for the Rockies and he owns a 5.52 ERA with a 1.92 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 at home this year. But those numbers drop to a more respectable 4.35 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .237 when on the road. Furthermore, Chatwood enjoyed a nice 3.44 ERA with a still declining 1.53 WHIP in his seven road starts this year. The Cubs have won 4 straight games with Chatwood facing a team with a losing record. And manager Joe Maddon can always go to his outstanding bullpen which has a 2.68 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP on the road — and this bullpen has a 1.61 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in their last seven games. Chatwood and the Cubs’ pen should have success against this Pirates team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .252 batting average along with a low .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .650 during that span. Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight games after a loss. The Pirates have also lost 4 straight games at home — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 4-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in thirteen starts. The sabermetrics call for regression for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.28 and 4.31 moving forward. Musgrove has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 4.40 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in eight starts. Pittsburgh has lost 5 of their last 6 home games with Musgrove making the start. That is not a good sign when facing this Cubs team that has won 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs should be a coin flip — at worst — with Chatwood on the hill when facing this Pirates team they have defeated in 7 of their last 9 games in Pittsburgh. Great value here. 25* MLB National League Central Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (955) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Chatwood and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Diamondbacks -121 v. Padres |
|
9-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (913) versus the San Diego Padres (914) listing both starting pitchers Robbie Ray and Joey Lucchesi. THE SITUATION: Arizona (67-55) has won three of their last four games after winning the opening game of this series with their 5-1 victory over the Padres.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 27 of their last 37 games on the road — and they have won 7 straight games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Arizona takes care of business against the bottom teams in the league as they have won 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Ray who is 3-2 with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has struggled at home in Chase Field where he has a 7.18 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP in seven starts — but his numbers significantly improve when the road where he owns a 2.70 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in eight starts. The Diamondbacks have won 11 of their last 12 road games with Ray pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a cold Padres team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .217 batting average along with a .276 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. San Diego (48-76) has lost 23 of their last 31 games against left-handed starting pitchers — including losing their last four home games against lefty starters. The Padres have also lost 9 of their last 13 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. San Diego has lost 15 of their last 21 games after a loss — and they have also lost 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Padres have not scored more than three runs in four straight games — and they have lost 14 of their last 16 home games after failing to score more than four runs in at least four straight contests. San Diego has also lost 21 of their last 26 games at home. They counter with Lucchesi who is 6-6 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eighteen starts. The left-hander has not been as good at home in Petco Park where he has a 3.77 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in twelve starts. The Padres have lost 4 of their last 5 home games with Lucchesi facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona have been reliable road warriors this season — they should take advantage of this opportunity to earn another win against a Padres team playing out the string. 20* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (913) versus the San Diego Padres (914) listing both starting pitchers Robbie Ray and Joey Lucchesi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Astros v. A's UNDER 8 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Edwin Jackson. THE SITUATION: Houston (74-47) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 12-1 win over Colorado on Wednesday. Oakland (72-49) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with a 2-0 loss in Seattle.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an off-day — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also a decisive 14-3-2 in the Astros’ last 19 games on the road. They give the ball to Morton who is 12-3 with a 2.88 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.73 ERA in ten starts. Houston has played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Morton on the mound. He faces an A’s team that has played 18 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Oakland (72-49) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the A’s have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where less than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after an off day. Furthermore, Oakland has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total. They counter with Jackson who is 4-2 with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.80 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .159 in four starts. Jackson’s teams have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total at night. He should thrive against this slumping Houston team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .227 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 over that span. Lastly, the Under is 8-1-1 in the Astros’ last 10 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams with two wily veteran starting pitchers on the hill. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Edwin Jackson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (68-55) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-4 loss in Chicago against the Cubs on Wednesday. St. Louis (66-56) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped won Wednesday with their 5-4 loss to Washington yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an off-day — and the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games when facing an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Milwaukee has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. They give the ball to Peralta who is 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.17 mark along with a 1.50 WHIP in seven starts. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Peralta making the start. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .878. St. Louis has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. The Cardinals have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. St. Louis has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Flaherty who is 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nineteen starts. The rookie right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has an ERA of 3.53 with a 1.11 WHIP. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total with Flaherty pitching with five days of rest. He also faces a hot-hitting team as the Brewers are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .780.
FINAL TAKE: The number is generally at 8 in most locations for this game. Both with two lineups hitting the ball well facing young starting pitchers that have an ever-growing book being written on their strengths and weaknesses, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-18 |
Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (907) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Derek Holland and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (61-60) has won three straight games with their 2-1 win over the Dodgers last night in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have seen the Under go 15-4-3 in their last 22 games after a win. The Under is also 15-5-2 in San Francisco’s last 22 games on the road. They give the ball to Holland who is 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 22 starts (26 games). The lefty has been more effective on the road where he sports a 3.80 ERA in thirteen starts (14 games). The Giants have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Holland facing a team with a winning record — and Holland’s teams have played 7 straight games Under the Total as a big underdog priced at least at +150. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .239 batting average along with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .695 over that span. Los Angeles (64-57) has played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and this includes a 16-5-2 mark with the Under when playing at home against left-handed starters. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, the Dodgers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games at home. They see Ryu return to the mound after serving most of the season on the disabled list with a groin injury. Ryu was 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in six starts before suffering that calamity. In his two starts at home, the left-hander had not given an up an earned run while posting a 0.54 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of 0.71. Ryu was better at home last year as well where he enjoyed a 3.48 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP as opposed to his 4.04 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP on the road. The Dodgers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Ryu on the hill. He faces a Giants team with a .229 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .598 over their last seven games. Lastly, the Under is 9-2-2 in San Francisco’s last 13 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 108-29-10 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams sending out left-handed starting pitchers facing slumping respective lineups. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (907) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Derek Holland and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-18 |
Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. THE SITUATION: Boston (86-35) has won eleven of their last twelve games with their 2-1 win over the Phillies yesterday in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a victory — and the Under is 9-0-2 in their last 11 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Boston’s last 4 games on the road. They give the ball to Eovaldi who is 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a terrible outing where he got rocked for eight runs (six earned) while surrendering a season-high 10 hits in an exasperating outing against the anemic Orioles. Eovaldi began the start with a microscopic 0.43 ERA along with a 0.67 WHIP in his three previous starts with the latter two being in a Red Sox uniform after being acquired from the Twins. Eovaldi’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a cold Phillies lineup that is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .170 batting average, .247 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .507 over that span. The Under is 9-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Phillies (65-53) have seen the Under go 40-15-4 in their last 59 games after a loss. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Furthermore, the Phillies have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Velasquez who is 8-9 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-two starts.Over his last ten appearances, Velasquez has a sparkling 2.68 ERA. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Phillies have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Velasquez on the hill. he faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 15-5-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is now 6-0-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
FINAL TAKE: Eovaldi should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight — expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that tend to play Unders. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-18 |
Brewers v. Cubs -133 |
Top |
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (901) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Junior Guerra. THE SITUATION: Chicago (68-50) has lost two of their last three games with their 7-0 loss to the Brewers yesterday afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has been very reliable in bounce-back situations as they have won 42 of their last 60 games after a loss. The Cubs have also won 17 of their last 22 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, Chicago has still won 4 of the last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 8-9 with a 4.02 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has been more effective in day games where he enjoys a 3.74 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP in eight starts. Hendricks has also been better at home where he sports a 3.69 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Hendricks on the hill. Milwaukee (68-54) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. The Brewers have also lost 7 of their last 8 games after fellow NL Central opponents — and they have also still lost 4 of their last 5 games against the Cubs in Wrigley Field. They counter with Guerra who is 6-7 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The sabermetrics call for significant regression with both his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 4.37. And while the right-hander has thrived at home where he owns a 2.69 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in fourteen starts, both his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.97 and 1.44 marks when on the road. Milwaukee has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Guerra on the hill — and they have also lost their last 4 games with Guerra facing the Cubs.
FINAL TAKE: The Brewers pulled within 2 games behind Chicago in the NL Central race yesterday — but they are still struggling against divisional rivals. Hendricks should outpitch Guerra this afternoon. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (901) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Junior Guerra. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-18 |
Nationals v. Cardinals +100 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (956) versus the Washington Nationals (955) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Gio Gonzalez. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (64-55) has won six straight games — as well as eight of their last nine — with their 7-6 victory over the Nationals in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has won 5 straight games after a win — and they have won 7 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also won 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs. Furthermore, St. Louis has now won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gant who is 4-4 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.51 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .162. Washington (60-59) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have also lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gonzalez who is 7-8 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The left-handed sees his ERA rise to a 4.26 mark in twelve starts on the road. Washington has lost 6 straight road games with Gonzales on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Cardinals who are scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .864 over that span. Additionally, St. Louis has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have won 20 of their last 28 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 76-17 confined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has lost five of their last seven games as they continue to play inconsistently (and blow late leads). St. Louis is playing better baseball right now while still being a difficult team to play at home. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (956) versus the Washington Nationals (955) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-14-18 |
Rockies v. Astros UNDER 7 |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (977) and the Houston Astros (978) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Justin Verlander. THE SITUATION: Colorado (63-55) has won three straight games with their 4-3 win in Los Angeles over the Dodgers on Sunday. Houston (73-46) has lost four in a row after their 4-3 loss in Seattle on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win — and the Under is 3-1-2 in their last 6 games after an off-day. Additionally, Colorado has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog pried at least at +150 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Rockies have also played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total in the month of August. They give the ball to Marquez who is 9-9 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The sabermetrics indicate the right-hander should be seeing much better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.75 and 3.55 respectively. Marquez has also been more effective on the road away from Coors Field where he owns a 3.09 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in eleven starts. Additionally, the Under is 20-9-2 in Colorado’s last 31 games with Marquez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a cold Astros lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .208 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .600 over that span. Furthermore, Houston has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Astros have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Under is 11-5-3 in Houston’s last 19 games after an off-day. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Verlander who is 11-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in twenty-five starts. Houston has played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Verlander on the hill. The Rockies are scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .297 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .684. Lastly, the Under is 8-3-1 in Colorado’s last 12 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Together, these team trends produce our specific 135-43-9 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitcher’s duel between these two starting pitchers facing slumping lineups. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (977) and the Houston Astros (978) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-14-18 |
Pirates -118 v. Twins |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-118 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (975) versus the Minnesota Twins (976) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Jake Odorizzi. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (61-58) has lost two of their last three games after their 4-3 loss in San Francisco on Sunday. Minnesota (54-63) has lost four of their last five contests with their 4-2 loss in Detroit.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day. The Pirates have also won 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record — and they have also won 18 of their last 27 road games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Additionally, Pittsburgh has won 20 of their last 26 games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Taillon who is 9-8 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-three starts this season. The right-hander has been quietly enjoying an outstanding year — over his last thirteen starts he owns a 2.98 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP while not allowing more than three earned runs in any of those starts. Taillon has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.39 ERA in twelve starts. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 7 road games with Taillon on the hill. He faces a cold Twins team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .223 batting average along with a .267 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .602 over that span. Minnesota has lost 9 of their last 13 games after an off-day. The Twins have also lost 6 straight games in Interleague play — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Odorizzi who is 4-7 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander certainly does not make it easy on himself as his 28.6% Ground-Ball rate is the lowest in the Major Leagues for all starting pitchers. Odorizzi has not been as effective at home where he has an ERA of 5.13 along with a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in eleven starts. The Twins have lost 6 of their last 7 games with Odorizzi facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and Pittsburgh has also won 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Taillon is a hidden gem right now — he should pitch very well against a mediocre Twins team. 25* MLB Interleague Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (975) versus the Minnesota Twins (976) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Jake Odorizzi. Best of luck for us —Frank.
|
08-13-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Rangers OVER 9.5 |
|
3-5 |
Loss |
-122 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (915) and the Texas Rangers (916) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Bartolo Colon. THE SITUATION: Arizona (65-54) travels to Arlington after their 9-2 win in Cincinnati yesterday. Texas (52-68) has lost three of their last four games with their 7-2 loss in New York against the Yankees.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring at least eight runs in their last game — and they have now played 40 of their last 64 games Over the Total in the month of August. Arizona has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 28 road games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, in the Diamondbacks’ last 22 opening games to a new series, the Over is 15-6-1. They give the ball to Greinke who is 12-7 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.52 mark along with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .256. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Greinke facing a team with a losing record. He faces a hot-hitting Rangers team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Texas has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Rangers have seen the Over go 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Texas has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new series Over the Total. They counter with Colon who is 6-10 with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-one starts. Since June, the aging veteran has a rough ERA of 6.72. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where his ERA rises to a 5.65 mark along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .285. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 home games with Colon facing a team with a winning record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 134-57 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high scoring game between these two teams in the Texas heat. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (915) and the Texas Rangers (916) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Bartolo Colon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-18 |
Mets v. Yankees OVER 7 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: The Mets (49-66) has won three of their last four games after their 4-3 win in Miami yesterday. The Yankees (74-43) has won six of their last seven games with their 7-2 win over Texas on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 6-2-1 in the Mets’ last 9 games after a win — and the Mets’ have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series Over the Total. The Mets have also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when facing an American League opponent. They give the ball to DeGrom who is 6-7 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. While DeGrom has been outstanding this season, the sabermetrics indicate he should be giving up more than one run more per start given his SIERA of 2.94 and his xFIP of 2.78. And while DeGrom has been almost unhittable at home where he owns a 1.60 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in thirteen starts, he is closer to a mere mortal when on the road where he his ERA rises to a 2.02 mark along with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225. The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with DeGrom pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Yankees team that scores 5.7 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Over is 3-1-1 the Bronx Bombers’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games after a win — and they have played 29 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 opening games to a new series — and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Severino who is 15-5 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has struggled as of late with a 7.31 ERA over his last six starts with him struggling with command on his fastball. He comes off a solid outing last Wednesday where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work — but that was against the lowly White Sox. The Yankees have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Severino pitching on four days of rest. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Lastly, the Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Yankee Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: The number is posted at a low 7 with two of the best pitchers in baseball on the hill — but expect this to be a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-18 |
Nationals v. Cubs +1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Cubs (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Washington (60-57) won the second game of this series last night with their 9-4 victory over the Cubs.
REASONS TO TAKE CHICAGO PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Nationals have lost 16 of their last 23 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Washington has still lost three of their last five games — and they have lost 17 of their last 25 games on the road. The Nationals have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They are favored in this game because they give the ball to Scherzer who is 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The sabermetrics indicate those outstanding numbers are a bit of an overachievement as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.75 and 3.08 moving forward. The right-hander is not quite as effective on the road either as he has a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 in eleven starts as compared to his 0.87 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .180 when at home. He faces a Cubs team that has won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago (67-49) has won a decisive 41 of their last 59 games after a loss. The Cubs have also won 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least five runs. And Chicago has won 17 of their last 25 games at home in Wrigley Field. They give the ball to Hamels who is 7-9 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. We can ignore the lefty’s 6.41 ERA at home this year as he never grew comfortable pitching in Arlington for the Rangers. He is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in his two starts where a Cubbies uniform — and this will be his first start for his new team at Wrigley. Hamels has a sparkling 2.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP when on the road so he is not a pitcher that leans heavily on familiarity. Hamels also thrives in night games where he sports a 3.19 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. His teams have won 40 of their last 60 games with him starting at night.
FINAL TAKE: I like the Cubs as a money-line underdog in this situation — but with the price of the +1.5 Run-Line being below my -150 threshold, my preferred play for this situation is to invest in the valuable Run-Line with runs being in scarce demand with Scherzer on the hill. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Chicago Cubs (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-18 |
Mariners v. Astros OVER 8 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Erasmo Ramirez and Dallas Keuchel. THE SITUATION: Seattle (68-50) has won three straight games with their 3-2 victory over the Astros yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a one-run win over an AL West rival. This will be the seventh straight game over an AL West opponent — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least six straight games against divisional foes. And while Seattle has stranded four and five runners on base in their last two games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after stranding five or less runners in two straight games. The Mariners have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the month of August. They get Ramirez back after a long stint on the disabled list since April after pitching just 9 2/3 innings of work in April. The right-hander was 5-6 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP between work with the Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays — but while he had a 2.49 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP when pitching at home, those numbers exploded to a 6.04 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP when on the road. Ramirez’s teams have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with him on the hill. He faces an Astros team that scores 5.8 Runs-Per-Game during day games — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. Houston (73-45) lost by a 5-2 score in Game Two of this series — and they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses where they failed to score more than two runs. The Astros have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 fourth games of a series Over the Total. They counter with Keuchel who is 9-9 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The sabermetrics suggest he should see some regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.01 and 3.70 moving forward. The left-hander has also not been as effective at home where he has a 4.16 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP in eleven starts. The Over is 3-1-1 in Houston’s last 5 games with Keuchel facing a team with a winning record — and the Astros have also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Keuchel pitching as a big money-line favorite priced in the -175 to -250 range. Together, these team trends produce our specific 92-40-1 combined angle for this situation. He faces a Mariners team that is scoring a healthy 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .284 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .789 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: Ramirez is a middling starting pitcher who has struggled when pitching away from home. Expect a higher-scoring game between these two teams with the Astros looking to avoid being swept at home. 10* MLB Seattle-Houston TBS O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Erasmo Ramirez and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-18 |
Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Colorado (61-55) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 5-4 victory over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado should build off the momentum of last night’s results as they have won 19 of their last 26 games after a victory. The Rockies have also won 11 of their last 15 games against NL West opponents. And in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Colorado has won 10 of these contests. They give the ball to Freeland who is 10-7 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The left-hander has been been great at home where he sports a 2.18 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in ten starts. He comes off a strong outing at home in Coors Park where he allowed just two hits and no runs in 7 innings of work against the Pirates. The Rockies have won 5 straight home games with Freeland on the hill — and they have also won 16 of their last 18 games with Freeland making the start as a money-line underdog. Freeland faces a cold Dodgers lineup that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .228 batting average along with a .290 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .678. Los Angeles (64-53) has lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have also lost 6 of their last 8 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with Buehler who is 5-4 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in thirteen starts. The rookie right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.26 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP in five starts. Buehler has not fared well against the Rockies in his career against which he has a 5.71 ERA in 17 1/3 innings of work. He faces a Colorado team that scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .281 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .805. Lastly, because the Dodgers have a team batting average of just .244, they fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 76% effective over the last five seasons. The Rockies have a team bullpen ERA of 5.17 — and National League favorites with a team batting average no higher than .255 with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.05 or lower facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 47 of the last 62 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: While Colorado is intriguing as a money-line underdog, there is much more evidence to support taking the Rockies with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that price below my -150 money-line threshold. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the Colorado Rockies (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-18 |
Mets v. Marlins OVER 8 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Miami Marlins (908) listing both starting pitchers Corey Oswald and Dan Straily. THE SITUATION: New York (48-65) has won four of their last six games with their 6-2 victory over the Marlins in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have seen the over go 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a victory — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. New York has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 29 of their last 41 road games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Oswalt who is 1-2 with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 33 innings this year. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.94 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .277. The Mets have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Oswalt pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. Miami (47-70) has not scored more than two runs in four straight games. But the Marlins have not only played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in three straight contests. They counter with Straily who is 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.85 ERA in eight starts. The Over is a decisive 18-3-1 in Miami’s last 22 home games with Straily on the hill. He faces a Mets team that has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 130-39-2 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The rookie Oswalt is very unreliable when pitching on the road — and Straily has not been very good at home. Expect a higher scoring game. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Miami Marlins (908) listing both starting pitchers Corey Oswald and Dan Straily. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-18 |
Brewers -101 v. Braves |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (905) versus the Atlanta Braves (906) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (63-50) has won nine of their last twelve games after they defeated the Brewers by a 10-1 score in the opening game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE MILWAUKEE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Brewers (66-53) should bounce-back tonight as they have won 38 of their last 52 games in the second game of the series. Milwaukee has also won 18 of their last 26 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than one run in their last contest. Additionally, the Brewers have won 38 of their last 55 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while Milwaukee allowed eight runs in their previous game against the Padres, they have then won 7 straight games after allowing at least seven runs in two straight games. They give the ball to Miley who is 2-1 with a2.10 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in seven starts. Miley has been much better on the road where he owns a 1.96 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in four starts. The Brewers have won 3 of their last 4 road games with Miley on the mound — and they have won 4 of their last 6 games with Miley pitching at night. Atlanta has lost 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games against an opponent that scored two runs or less in their last game. They counter with Teheran who is 8-7 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-one starts. But the Braves have lost 18 of their last 26 games with Teheran pitching as a favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. He faces a Brewers team that has won 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Teheran is seeing a decline in his skills — and he has typically not been as good when pitching in Atlanta’s new Sun Trust Field. 10* MLB Milwaukee-Atlanta FS1 Special with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (905) versus the Atlanta Braves (906) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-18 |
Twins -126 v. Tigers |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (919) versus the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Francisco Liriano. THE SITUATION: Detroit (48-68) won the opening game of this series last night with their 5-3 victory over the Twins.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Tigers have lost a decisive 42 of their last 62 games after a win — and they have lost 8 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Detroit has also lost 10 of their last 14 second games to a new series. They give the ball to Liriano who is 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in seventeen starts this year. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where his ERA rises to a 5.08 mark with a 1.48 WHIP in five starts (six games). The Tigers have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Liriano facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Minnesota team that has won 7 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have also won 5 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have won 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Gibson who is 5-9 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.23 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in twelve starts. Minnesota has won 20 of their last 27 road games with Gibson facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this slumping Tigers lineup that is scoring only 1.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .168 batting average along with a .220 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .481 over that span. That is a good sign tonight for this Twins team that has won 4 of their last 5 games with Gibson facing Detroit.
FINAL TAKE: Gibson has been much better on the road this year — and he faces a Tigers’ lineup that is rather weak at this point of the season. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (919) versus the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Francisco Liriano. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-18 |
Nationals v. Cubs -113 |
|
9-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Tanner Roark. THE SITUATION: Chicago (67-48) has five of their last seven games with their 3-2 victory over the Nationals in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has now won 5 of their last 7 games at home in Wrigley Field. And while the Cubbies have not hit a home run in their last three games, they have then won 22 of their last 30 games after failing to hit a home run in at least two straight contests. Chicago has also won 15 of their last 20 second games of a new series. They give the ball to Lester who is 12-4 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The left-hander has struggled as of late (not to my surprise) — but he has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.41 ERA. The Cubs have won 17 of their last 22 home games with Lester facing a team with a winning record. Lester pitches well against the Nationals given his 2.79 ERA in six starts — and he faces a Washington team (59-57) that has lost 7 of their last 10 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Nationals have lost 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Washington has also lost 17 of their last 24 games on the road — and this includes them losing five of their last six road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Roark who is 6-12 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander does see his ERA rise to a 4.15 mark when pitching on the road. The Nationals have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Roark on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that has won 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 104-38 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has been an inconsistent disappointment all season — and the Cubs are trending up with significant postseason ambitions. Getting Chicago at Wrigley at this price in the -130 money-line range offers nice value. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Tanner Roark. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-18 |
A's -116 v. Angels |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-116 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Felix Pena. THE SITUATION: Oakland (68-47) has won seven of their last eight games with their 3-2 win over the Dodgers on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-58) has three straight games after they defeated the Tigers by a 6-0 score Wednesday afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has won 20 of their last 27 games after a victory — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the A’s have won 15 of their last 21 games on the road. They give the ball to Anderson who is 2-3 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 4.14 mark. But what is more encouraging is that Anderson has a low 2.96 ERA over his last five starts. Oakland has won 4 of their last 5 road games with Anderson on the hill. He faces an Angels team that has lost 17 of their last 24 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have also lost 18 of their last 27 games after a shutout victory. The Angels have also lost 19 of their last 26 games after an off day. Furthermore, Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Pena who is 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in ten games (eight starts). Pena has three starts on the road where he enjoys a 1.84 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP — but in his seven games (with five starts) at home, the right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 6.94 mark along with a 1.63 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .283. He faces an A’s team that has won 30 of their last 42 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and Oakland has also won 19 of their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has been one of the best teams in baseball in the second-half of this season — and Anderson has been pitching well as of late. 25* MLB American League West Game of the Month with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Felix Pena. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-18 |
Dodgers +101 v. Rockies |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (959) versus the Colorado Rockies (958) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Jon Gray. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (64-52) won the opening game of this series last night with their 8-5 victory over the Rockies.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 13 of their last 18 games after scoring at least eight runs in their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 20 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Dodgers have also won 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have won 20 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Total is set at 10.5 with this game being played at Coors Field — and Los Angeles has won 5 straight road games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They send out Maeda who is 7-7 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 21 games. The sabermetrics indicate the crafty right-hander should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.52 and 3.47 moving forward. Maeda has been more effective on the road where he has a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in nine games as compared to his 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 at home. The Dodgers have won 5 of their last 6 road games with Maeda pitching with the Total set in at least at 10. He faces a slumping Rockies team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .230 batting average along with a .290 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .656 over that span. Colorado (60-55) has lost seven of their last nine games — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. The Rockies have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They counter with Gray who is 9-7 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in ten starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251. Colorado has lost 15 of their last 24 games with Gray pitching as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range — and this includes them losing five of their last seven home games with Gray pitching as a favorite in that price range. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and they have won 20 of their last 29 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockies are slumping while the Dodgers are cruising —and it is not often we can get the chance to invest in LA as basically a pick em. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (959) versus the Colorado Rockies (958) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-08-18 |
Orioles v. Rays -1.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (971) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Stanek and Andrew Cashner. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (57-56) has won four of their last seven games after winning the opening game of this series over the Orioles by a 4-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 34 of their last 53 games after a victory. The Rays have also won 21 of their last 28 games at home. This is also Tampa Bay’s eighth straight game at home — and they have won 11 of their last 13 games after playing at least six straight games at home. They give the ball to Stanek to make this start — he is 1-3 with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 0.39 ERA with a .150 opponent’s batting average. He will give way to the bullpen after an inning or two (as usual) — and the Tampa Bay bullpen enjoys a 2.99 ERA along with a 1.10 WHIP at home this season. The combination of Stanek and the Rays’ bullpen should find success against this Orioles team that has lost 40 of their last 58 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have also lost 43 of their last 52 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore (34-79) has lost 9 straight games when attempting to avenge a loss by at least one run. The Orioles have also lost 40 of their last 51 games on the road — and they have lost 33 of their last 41 road games as an underdog in the +151 to +200 price range. They counter with Cashner who is 3-10 with a 5.05 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.40 mark with a 1.78 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .322. The Orioles have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Cashner on the hill. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 14 of their last 20 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Tampa Bay bullpen has logged in at least 5 innings in three straight games, they are supported by a historical angle that has been 74% effective since 1997. In the month of August, favorites with a bullpen that has pitched at least 4 innings in three straight games have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 31 of the last 42 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is an undervalued team this season — and the Orioles are in the tank. With the Rays’ priced in the -170 range, they are in intriguing money-line underdog minus the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line of the Month with the Tampa Bay Rays (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (971) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Stanek and Andrew Cashner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-08-18 |
Tigers v. Angels UNDER 9 |
|
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (965) and the Los Angeles Angels (966) listing both starting pitchers Blaine Hardy and Jaime Barria. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (57-58) has won the first two games of this series with their 11-5 victory over the Tigers yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels have seen the Under go 21-9-3 in their last 33 games after a win. Los Angeles has also played 53 of their last 87 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Barria who is 6-7 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in nine starts as compared to his 1.31 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. The Angels have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Barria facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Tigers team that is scoring only 1.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .189 batting average along with a .226 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .493 during that span. Detroit (47-67) has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Tigers have played 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total after a loss — and the Under is also 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 25 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Hardy who is 4-3 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.81 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP. The Tigers have played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Hardy on the hill. He faces an Angels team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests along with just a .226 batting average along with a .282 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .632 during that span. LA has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 167-75-4 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams with their cold bats facing two underrated starting pitchers. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (965) and the Los Angeles Angels (966) listing both starting pitchers Blaine Hardy and Jaime Barria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-08-18 |
Mariners v. Rangers +1.5 |
Top |
7-11 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 2:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Rangers (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Seattle Mariners (963) listing both starting pitchers Yovani Gallardo and Marco Gonzales. THE SITUATION: Texas (50-65) has won four of their last six games with their 11-4 victory over the Mariners last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Rangers have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also won 38 of their last 62 games in the month of August. They give the ball to Gallardo who is 6-1 with a 6.50 RRA and a 1.62 WHIP in eight starts (11 games) this year. The right-hander surrendered 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work against the Orioles in his last start — but he still sports a sparkling 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. The Rangers have won 6 straight home games with Gallardo facing a team with a winning record. He faces a slumping Mariners’ lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .239 batting average along with a .277 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .629. Seattle (65-49) has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mariners have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road. They counter with Gonzales who is 2-6 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The left-hander has not been as good on the road where he has a 3.80 ERA with a .259 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.12 ERA with a .252 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Rangers’ lineup that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .256 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .791 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has opened as a money-line favorite in the -150 price range for this afternoon contest. While the Rangers are intriguing as a money-line underdog play, I much prefer taking the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that price well below my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Getaway Game Run-Line of the Month with the Texas Rangers (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Seattle Mariners (963) listing both starting pitchers Yovani Gallardo and Marco Gonzales. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-18 |
Dodgers v. A's UNDER 8 |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (929) and the Oakland A’s (930) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Sean Manaea. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-51) enters this game coming off a 3-2 win over Houston on Sunday. Oakland (67-46) has won six straight games with their 6-0 win over Detroit on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an off day. Los Angeles has also played 7 off their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Hill who is 4-4 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in fourteen starts (15 games) this season. The left-hander has been better on the road where he owns a 3.09 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in seven starts. He has also only allowed one earned run in his last two starts — and the Dodgers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total with Hill on the mound after not allowing more than one earned runs in two straight starts. He faces an A’s team that has played 4 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Oakland (67-46) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The A’s have also played 7 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Manaea who is 10-7 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The lefty has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.25 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in eleven starts. Manaea comes off a strong start where he allowed only one earned run against Toronto — and the A’s have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total with Manaea following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces a Dodgers’ team that has seen the Under go 27-11-1 in their last 39 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Together, these team trends produce our specific 97-28-1 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitching duel between these two crafty left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (929) and the Oakland A’s (930) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Sean Manaea. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-18 |
Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-114 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (34-78) snapped their three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 9-6 win in Texas. Tampa Bay (56-56) has lost three straight games with their 8-7 loss to the White Sox on Sunday. After a travel day yesterday, these two teams begin their series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Baltimore has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, this is the Orioles’ seventh straight game on the road — and not only have they played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after playing at least their previous six games away from home but they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Cobb who is 3-14 with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.93 mark along with a 1.58 WHIP in thirteen starts. Cobb’s teams have played 11 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when they are priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .254 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .740 over that span — and all those numbers are above their season average. Tampa Bay has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Rays have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games. The Rays are big money-line favorites priced in the -160 range — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when priced at -150 or higher. Tampa Bay will be looking to avenge an 11-5 loss back on July 29th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. They counter with Glasnow who is 1-2 with a 4.27 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP this season. He will be making his first start for the Rays since being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline. The right-hander had an ugly 7.76 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) at home last season — and has not been as effective at home almost exclusively out of the bullpen this season where he has a 1.43 WHIP and a .232 opponent’s batting average in 38 1/3 innings as compared to his 1.40 WHIP and a .213 opponent’s batting average in 20 2/3 innings on the road. Glasgow’s teams have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with him making the start. He faces a hot-hitting Orioles lineup that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .303 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 over that span. The Over is also 13-3-2 in Baltimore’s last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 131-30-3 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The number for this game is in the relatively low 7.5 to 8 range — perhaps because of the respective offenses in this game along with some optimism regarding Glasnow’s prospects as a starting pitcher. But both these teams are hitting the ball well as of late — and Glasnow has yet to see significant improvement in his command which is why he was relegated to the bullpen this season by the Pirates before being traded to Tampa Bay. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-18 |
Astros v. Giants +1.5 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (970) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (969) listing both starting pitchers Dereck Rodriguez and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Houston (71-42) saw their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday with a 3-2 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers. San Francisco (57-56) has won five of their last seven games with tier 3-2 win in Arizona yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Astros have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. And while Houston has not allowed more than four runs in seven straight games, they have then lost 15 of their last 26 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least six straight games. The Astros also begin this series having lost 4 of their last 5 games in AT&T Park against the Giants. They give the ball to Morton who is 12-2 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.93 mark with a 1.24 WHIP in nine starts. Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Morton facing a team with winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Giants team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .285 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .776 over that span. San Francisco has won 16 of their last 21 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Giants have return home for the first time since July 29th — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games after playing at least their last seven days on the road. San Francisco has also won 5 opening games to a new series. The Giants will have revenge on their mind after losing to the Astros in the last meeting between these two teams back on May 23rd. San Francisco has won 8 of their last 9 home games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. They counter with Rodriguez who is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in ten starts (11 games) this season. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.41 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in five starts (6 games). San Francisco has won 4 of their last 5 home games with Rodriguez on the hill. He faces an Astros team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Houston has also lost 4 of their last 5 interleague games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Giants have not committed more than one error in ten straight games, they are supported by a historical specific to the Run-Line that has been 71% effected since 1997. Rodriguez has a 0.86 WHIP over his last five starts — and underdogs who have committed more than one error in at least ten straight games using a starting pitcher with a WHIP no higher than 1.00 over his last five starts have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 169 of the last 238 situations (when priced in the -115 to -160 price range) where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is playing good baseball right now and they host an Astros team without their star double-play combination in Jose Altuve and Carlos Correia who are both on the disabled list. While the Giants are intriguing as a straight-up underdog in this situation, I prefer taking the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that price below my -150 price threshold. 10* MLB Monday Late Show Run-Line Bailout with the San Francisco Giants (970) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (969) listing both starting pitchers Dereck Rodriguez and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-18 |
Yankees v. White Sox +1.5 |
Top |
7-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Covey and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: New York (68-42) blew a 4-1 lead in the 9th inning last night to lose to the Red Sox in 10 innings by a 5-4 score. Chicago (41-70) has won four straight games with their 8-7 win in Tampa Bay yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Yankees got swept in Fenway over the weekend — and they have now lost 5 straight games on the road. The New York bullpen has been saddled with a 7.06 ERA over their last five games — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games when their bullpen has an ERA of 7.00 or higher in their last five games. They give the ball to Lynn who is 7-8 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in twenty starts (21 appearances). This is Lynn’s second appearance for the Yankees since being acquired from Minnesota — but this will be his first start on the road in pinstripes where he sees his ERA rise to an ugly 7.08 ERA with a 1.77 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296 in eleven starts. Lynn’s teams have lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Lynn pitching as the favorite. He faces a White Sox team that has won 5 of their last 7 home games when facing right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 games against AL East opponents. The White Sox have also been dangerous home dogs who have won outright 26 of their last 48 home games as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Covey who is 4-7 with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has been over a run and a half better at home where he has a 4.18 ERA in six starts. Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 home games with Covey pitching as an underdog priced at +100 or higher. He faces a slumping Yankees team that is scoring only 4.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .623 over that span. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the White Sox are being outscored by -1.3 Runs-Per-Game, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 77% effective over the last five seasons. Lynn is making his first start since July 21st — and home underdogs who are being outscored by at least -1.0 Runs-Per-Game facing a starting pitcher who has not made a start in at least seven days have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 50 of the last 65 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: With the Yankees reeling, they are vulnerable against a White Sox team that is playing better baseball as of late. Chicago might pull the upset — but take the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with it priced below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Covey and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-18 |
Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5 |
|
0-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (959) and the Cleveland Indians (960) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Trevor Bauer. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (52-58) has won three straight games with their 6-5 win over the Royals yesterday. Cleveland (61-49) has won four of their last five games with their 4-3 win over the Angels.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Twins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Minnesota has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gibson who is 5-8 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.94 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in eleven starts. The Under is 14-5-1 in the Twins’ last 20 games on the road with Gibson on the hill. Cleveland (61-49) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory. The Indians have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Bauer who is 10-6 with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has been even better at home where he owns a 2.02 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in eleven starts. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Bauer on the hill. Cleveland has also played 4 straight games Under the Total with Bauer facing the Twins. Lastly, in the last 4 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total all 4 times. Together, these teams trends produce our specific 44-10-1 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (959) and the Cleveland Indians (960) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Trevor Bauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-05-18 |
Yankees v. Red Sox -106 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (928) versus the New York Yankees (927) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Masahiro Tanaka. THE SITUATION: Boston (78-34) looks to conclude a knockout four-game sweep of their arch-rivals after they secured their second-straight 4-1 victory yesterday over the Yankees in Game Three of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 31 of their last 42 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Red Sox have also won 39 of their last 58 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have won 25 of their last 34 games when priced as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. Boston has also won 7 straight fourth games of a series. They give the ball to Price who is 11-6 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has been better at home in Fenway Park where he enjoys a 3.31 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in nine starts. The Red Sox have won 6 straight home games with Price on the hill. And while Price was rocked by allowing 8 earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work in his last start against the Yankees on the first Sunday night in the month of July, that game took place in Yankee Stadium. Boston has won their last 4 games at home in Fenway Park with Price facing the Bronx Bombers. He faces a Yankees team without one of their key cogs in Aaron Judge who is on the disabled list with a wrist injury. New York’s offensive production is down a bit without Judge as they have seen their scoring average drop to 4.5 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .249 batting average along with a .318 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .723 over that span. New York (68-41) has also lost 3 of their last 4 games when playing with double-revenge from two straight losses to their opponent where they failed to score more than two runs. The Yankees have lost four in a row — all on the road. They also have lost 8 of their last 10 games when priced as an underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. They counter with Tanaka who is 9-2 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander’s ERA rises to a 4.00 mark in his eleven starts on the road. New York has lost 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. Boston scores a robust 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring a healthy 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .275 batting average along with a .388 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .784 over that span. The Red Sox have also won 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Together, these team trends produce our specific 137-46 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has all the momentum right now between these two teams. And while momentum in baseball typically only goes so far as the next day’s starting pitcher, Price will be very motivated to redeem himself from his embarrassing performance against the Yankees on the stage of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball less than five weeks ago. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (928) versus the New York Yankees (927) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-18 |
Braves -120 v. Mets |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (961) with the money-line versus the New York Mets (962) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Zack Wheeler. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (59-47) has won five straight games with their 2-1 win over the Mets in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Braves have won 4 straight games after a victory — and they have now won 24 of their last 33 games against fellow NL East opponents. Atlanta has also won 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They will be getting their first start from Gausman after they acquired him from the Orioles at the trade deadline. The right-hander is 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty-one starts — and he has been a bit more effective on the road with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He should see his numbers improve by pitching in the National League. He faces a Mets team that has lost 15 of their last 22 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they are scoring just 2.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .190 batting average along with a .247 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 557 over that span. New York (44-63) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 15 of their last 20 games after scoring two runs or less. The Mets have also lost 24 of their last 33 home games. They counter with Wheeler who is 5-6 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has not been as good at home where he has a 4.35 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in eleven starts as compared to his 3.81 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .222. New York has lost 6 of their last 7 home games with Wheeler facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Braves team that has won 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta is playing much better baseball than the Mets who are in the tank — and I expect Gausman to be inspired with his escape from Baltimore. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (961) with the money-line versus the New York Mets (962) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Zack Wheeler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-18 |
Cardinals v. Pirates -109 |
|
8-4 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (953) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Austin Gomber. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (57-53) has won four of their last six games after winning the opening game of this series last night with their 7-6 victory over the Cardinals.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh has won 11 of their last 14 games after a victory on their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Pirates have also won 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Nova who is 6-6 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been better at home where he owns a 3.15 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in nine starts as compared to his 5.40 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .290. Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 7 home games with Nova facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis (56-54) has lost 19 of their last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with their rookie starting pitcher Gomber who is 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 22 1/3 innings this season. While that is not much of a sample size, the sabermetrics call for immediate regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.75 and 4.78 moving forward. Gomber also sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.60 and 1.30 marks in his 10 innings of work on the road. He faces a Pirates team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 70-23 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates are playing good baseball right now — and they have a big edge in starting pitchers in this game. 20* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (953) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Austin Gomber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-18 |
White Sox v. Rays -138 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-138 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Chicago (39-70) has won their last two games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 3-2 score over Tampa Bay.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The White Sox have lost 8 of their last 11 games after a victory — and they have lost 20 of their last 26 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Chicago has also lost 49 of their last 61 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Rodon who is 3-3 with a 3.24 ERA and a WHIP of 1.06 in nine starts. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 4.45 ERA with 1.29 WHIP in five starts. The White Sox have lost 17 of their last 22 road games with Rodon facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while posting a .271 batting average with an On-Base Percentage of .324 and an OPS of .753. Tampa Bay (56-54) has won 10 of their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Rays had won their previous three games before last night — and they have won 9 of their last 11 home games after winning three of their last four contests. Tampa Bay has also won 21 of their last 27 games at home — and this includes them winning nine of their last twelve home games with the Total set at 7 or less. They counter with Snell who is coming off the disabled list with a 12-5 with a 2.27 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07 in twenty starts. The left-hander has been downright nasty at home where he owns a 0.87 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .178 in eight starts. The Rays have won 4 straight home games with Snell on the hill. He should fare well against this White Sox team that has lost 4 straight road games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay opened as a money-line favorite in the -160 range but has been bet down below my -150 threshold with some bettors likely enthralled with Rodon who has enjoyed three straight strong outings. But Rodon is not as good on the road — and Snell is one of the best pitchers in baseball. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-03-18 |
Blue Jays v. Mariners -1.5 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (928) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (927) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Ryan Borucki. THE SITUATION: Toronto (49-59) snapped a three-game losing streak yesterday with their 7-3 victory over the Mariners.
REASONS TO TAKE SEATTLE MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Mariners (63-46) have bounced-back to won 27 of their last 44 games after a loss. Seattle has also won 26 of their last 38 games at home — and they have won 21 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Gonzales who is 12-5 with a 3.37 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has been outstanding as of late as he owns a sparkling 1.57 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP over his last five starts with 31 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings of work. He has allowed just two earned runs in two straight starts — and the Mariners have won 9 straight games when Gonzales has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight games. Gonzales has also been more effective at home where he owns a 2.88 ERA in ten starts as compared to his 3.80 ERA when on the road. Seattle has won 6 straight home games with Gonzales on the hill. He should pitch very well against this Blue Jays team that has lost 25 of their last 32 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a win — and they have also lost 24 of their last 32 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. It was a bullpen outing in that win last night with Tyler Clippard getting a rare start after pitching just one inning — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 games after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 7 innings. The Blue Jays have also lost 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Borucki who is 0-2 with a 2.83 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP in six starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.45 and 4.26 moving forward. The lefty has struggled on the road where he sees his ERA skyrocket to a 4.80 ERA with a 1.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .308 in three starts. He faces a Mariners team that has won 14 of their last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Lastly, because Borucki has allowed only two combined earned runs over his last two starts, Toronto falls into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 56% effective over the last five seasons. The Blue Jays are scoring 4.5 Runs-Per-Game — and teams using a starting pitcher who has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight starts now facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA no higher than 3.50 have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -190 to +165 price range) in 62 of the last 110 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle is priced higher than my -150 money-line threshold — but with Gonzales being in such fine form (and being a bit underrated) facing an inconsistent Blue Jays team, taking the Mariners as a money-line underdog minus the -1.5 Run-Line is a strong play. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Year with the Seattle Mariners (928) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (927) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Ryan Borucki. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-03-18 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
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1-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: Boston (76-34) won the opening game of this series with their 15-7 victory over the Yankees.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox banged out 19 hits last night — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after clubbing at least 10 hits in their last game. Boston has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by at least eight runs. Furthermore, the Over is 7-3-1 in the Red Sox’s last 11 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Porcello who is 13-4 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in twenty-two starts this season. The right-hander struggled with allowing gopher balls last season with his ugly 1.68 Home Runs allowed per 9 innings of work and while that number has decreased this season, he has still allowed 15 homers so far this year — and that is a dangerous number when facing the Bronx Bombers. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has a 5.10 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP in ten starts. The Over is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 7 home games with Porcello on the hill. He faces a New York team (68-39) that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .296 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .835 over that span. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, the Over is 7-3-2 in New York’s last 12 games after a win. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after scoring at least five runs — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 3-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Severino who is 14-4 with a 2.94 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander is struggling with his command over his fastball as of late — he has a whopping 10.07 ERA with a 2.66 WHIP over his last three starts. Severino has not been as effective on the road either where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.59 and 1.21 marks. New York has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Severino on the hill — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Severino facing the Red Sox.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-02-18 |
Orioles v. Rangers -136 |
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8-17 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (972) versus the Baltimore Orioles (971) listing both starting pitchers Yovani Gallardo and Andrew Cashner. THE SITUATION: Texas (46-63) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last night with their 6-0 loss at Arizona. Baltimore (33-75) has won four of their last five games with their 7-5 win in New York against the Yankees.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas typically plays well in the August heat as they have won 34 of their last 57 games in the month of August. The Rangers have also won 6 of their last 9 home games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range. They give the ball to Gallardo who is 5-1 with a rough 6.26 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 41 2/3 innings of work. Gallardo has pitched much better as of late as he has not allowed an earned run in two straight starts which spans 11 1/3 innings. The right-hander has also been more effective at home where his ERA drops by about 1 1/2 runs along with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .222. Texas has won 4 straight home games with Gallardo on the hill — and they have won 5 straight games with Gallardo facing a team with a losing record. He faces an Orioles team that has lost 42 of their last 53 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has lost 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also lost 16 of their last 23 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Orioles have also lost 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They counter with Cashner who is 3-9 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in twenty starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.92 and 4.74 respectively. The right-hander has also been less effective on the road where he sees his WHIP rise to a 1.63 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .305 in nine starts. Baltimore has lost 4 straight road games with Cashner facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Rangers team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .271 batting average along with a .324 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .775.
FINAL TAKE: Gallardo is pitching better — he should lead the Rangers at home against this Orioles team that is officially in the tank. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (972) versus the Baltimore Orioles (971) listing both starting pitchers Yovani Gallardo and Andrew Cashner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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