08-01-23 |
Reds v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
|
9-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Justin Steele. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (59-49) has won two games in a row — and nine of their last 12 contests — after their 6-5 victory on the road against the Cubs in the opening game of this series. Chicago (53-53) had been on an eight-game winning streak but they have now lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 29 of their last 45 games Over the Total after winning their previous game by just one run — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by only one run against an NL Central rival. They have also played 42 of their last 67 games Over the Total after a win by two runs or less. And in their last 35 games after winning two or more games in a row, they have played 23 of these games Over the Total. They have also played 12 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. Lively gets the ball for Cincinnati holding a 4-6 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 games (11 starts). The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projection an ERA of 4.14 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in seven appearances — but those numbers rise to a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280 in six appearances (five starts) on the road. Lively also has a 4.20 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eight appearances at night — and the Reds have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Lively making the start in a night game. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .278 batting average, a .342 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .815 during that span. Chicago ranks fifth and fourth in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. They have also played 35 of their last 54 games at home Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Additionally, Chicago has played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have played 19 of their last 28 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They counter with Steele who has an 11-3 record with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.12 HIP in 19 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.74 moving forward. Perhaps the Regression Gods are already making their presence known since the left-hander had a 4.44 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in July. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.76 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in eight starts — but those numbers do rise in his 11 starts at home at Wrigley Field where he has a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .247. Steele gave up only one earned run in six innings on the road at St. Louis in his last start on Thursday — but the Cubs have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with Steele looking to follow up a start where he did not allow more than two earned runs. He faces a Reds lineup that is scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game again left-handed starting pitchers with a .277 batting average, a .351 on-base percentage, and a .796 OPS. Cincinnati ranked seventh in MLB last month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds have now beaten the Cubs in four straight games — all played at Wrigley Field. Chicago has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total at home when playing with revenge from two straight losses at home to their opponent. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Justin Steele. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-31-23 |
Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Comber. THE SITUATION: San Diego (52-54) has won three straight games after their 5-3 loss at home against Texas yesterday. Colorado (41-64) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 2-0 win against Oakland on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have held their last five opponents to three runs or less — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than three runs in four or more games in a row. San Diego has played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played five straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 11 or higher. Lugo gets the start looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been quite good since returning from a stint on the injured list last month. In his last seven starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings. He has also been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.38 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in eight starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in seven starts at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound following a victory in their last game. He faces a Rockies team that leaves way too many runners on base. While Colorado ranks sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers, they only rank 29th in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Rockies have fallen to ranking just 21st in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers — and they still rank 29th in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. This team has also traded away two of their best bats with C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk being shipped off to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Colorado has played 25 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after shutting out their previous opponent. The Rockies have also played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored. And in their last 9 games at home when listed as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Gomber who has an 8-8 record with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 21 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective lately as he has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less with three of those four starts being at home at Coors Field. Gomber has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP in his last six starts — and he has issued only two walks in his last seven starts! In his last four starts at home at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, he has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Gomber on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He will be supported by a defense that has not committed an error in two straight games — and the Rockies have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after not committing an error in two or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres rank 19th in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Gomber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-31-23 |
Guardians v. Astros -160 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (916) with the money-line versus the Cleveland Guardians (915) listing both starting pitchers J.P. France and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Houston (59-47) has lost three of their last four games after their 8-2 loss at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Cleveland (53-53) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 5-0 victory on the road in Chicago against the White Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won a decisive 70 of their last 105 games after losing their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by four or more runs. They have also won 11 of their last 16 games after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. They have also won 52 of their last 75 games after losing two of their last three games. They stay at home for this series where they have won 18 of their last 26 games at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. France gets the start looking to build on his 6-3 record with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective in night games where he enjoys a 2.60 ERA in 11 starts. He held Texas to one unearned run in his previous start last Tuesday — and the Astros have won 5 of their last 6 games when he is following up a start where he allowed one earned run or less. He faces a Guardians team that ranks 22nd and 20th in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Cleveland has lost 17 of their last 28 games after shutting out their previous opponent. The Guardians have also lost 29 of their last 40 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range — including four straight losses under those circumstances. They counter with Syndergaard who makes his first start with the club since he was acquired in a trade last week with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The right-hander struggled with the Dodgers given his 1-4 record along with a 7.16 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 12 starts. He got hit hard when pitching on the road where he was saddled with a 10.96 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .366 in six starts.
FINAL TAKE: Syndergaard’s teams have lost 20 of their last 26 games on the road with Syndergaard their starting pitcher as a money-line underdog. 8* MLB Monday Night Discounted Deal with money-line on the Houston Astros (916) with the money-line versus the Cleveland Guardians (915) listing both starting pitchers J.P. France and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-23 |
Yankees v. Orioles -121 |
|
3-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (63-401 has lost three of their last four games after their 8-3 loss at home against the Yankees last night. New York (55-49) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore has won 25 of their last 40 games after losing their last game — and they have won 22 of their last 31 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, Baltimore has won 31 of their last 45 home games when priced up to -150. Kremer gets the start looking to build on his 10-4 record along with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 21 starts this season. He has held three of his last four opponents to just one earned run including in his last start where he allowed one earned run in seven innings of work at Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Orioles have won 12 of their last 16 games with Kremer on the hill following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in 11 starts as opposed to his 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in ten starts on the road. Baltimore has won 15 of their last 21 games at home with Kremer as their starting pitcher. Kremer also has a 3.87 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 starts at night — and Baltimore has won 10 of their last 13 night games when Kremer was their starting pitcher. He faces a Yankees team that ranks 27th and 26th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. New York has lost 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have lost 12 of their last 19 road games when priced as a money-line underdog up to +150. They counter with Severino who has a 2-4 record this season with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in 11 starts. While the right-hander has a 5.19 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .280 in five starts at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 7.62 ERA, a 1.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .344 in six starts on the road. New York has lost 10 of their last 11 games with Severino as their starter and priced in the +/- 125 money-line range.
FINAL TAKE: The Orioles have won 9 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home in their previous encounter. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (964) versus the New York Yankees (9163) listing both starting pitchers Kremer and Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-23 |
Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9 |
|
3-9 |
Loss |
-126 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dean Kremer. THE SITUATION: New York (55-49) has won five of their last seven games after their 8-3 victory on the road against the Orioles last night. Baltimore (63-41) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They have also played 38 of their last 63 games Under the Total when played at night. Severino gets the start as he looks to improve on his 2-4 record along with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in 11 starts. The right-hander struggled in his initial starts after coming off the injured list from which he started the season — but in his last two starts, he has allowed only five earned runs while posting a 3.08 ERA in those 11 2/3 innings. The Yankees have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Baltimore has not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three or more games in a row. Kremer gets the start looking to build on his 10-4 record along with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 21 starts this season. He has held three of his last four opponents to just one earned run including in his last start where he allowed one earned run in seven innings of work at Philadelphia against the Phillies. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in 11 starts as opposed to his 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in ten starts on the road. Kremer also has a 3.87 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 starts at night — and Baltimore has won played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total with Kremer taking the ball in a night game.
FINAL TAKE: Kremer faces a Yankees team that ranks 27th and 26th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Orioles rank 27th in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dean Kremer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-23 |
Yankees v. Orioles -113 |
|
8-3 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (63-40) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 1-0 victory at home against the Yankees last night. New York (54-49) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore has won 22 of their last 30 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, they have won 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Orioles have won 29 of their last 48 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game — and they have won 20 of their last 29 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Wells gets the start looking to build on his 7-5 record along with a 3.65 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 appearances (19 starts) this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.26 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in ten starts as opposed to his 4.08 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in ten appearances on the road. Baltimore has won 9 of their last 14 games when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150 with Wells as their starting pitcher. He faces a Yankees team that ranks 29th in MLB since June 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. New York activated Aaron Judge from the injured list but he was rushed back given the dire straits the team is in. He went 0-for-1 last night and might get one of the next two days off to manage his return. The Yankees have lost 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a game where no more than two combined runs were scored. New York has also lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 12 of their last 18 road games when priced as a money-line underdog up to +150. They counter with Schmidt who has a 6-6 record this season with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 31 appearances. While the right-hander has a 4.01 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in 13 games (12 starts) at home, those numbers rise to a 4.85 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in eight starts on the road. New York has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Schmidt their starter as a money-line underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has won 31 of their last 44 home games when priced up to -150. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Baltimore Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-23 |
Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (52-52) was on a three-game winning streak before their 3-0 loss on the road against the White Sox in the second game of this series. Chicago (42-63) snapped a six-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games. They have played 32 of their last 47 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow AL Central rivals. And in their last 52 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, they have played 32 of those games Under the Total. Allen gets the start looking to build on his 4-3 record along with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts at home. He faces a White Sox line that ranks 29th and 28th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 30th in those categories since June 1st. Chicago is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .233 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .655 during that span. The White Sox have scored three runs or less in three of their last four games. They have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Chicago has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a game where three or more combined runs were scored. The White Sox have also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They counter with Clevinger who has been activated off the injured list for this start. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He has been better at home where he owns a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in five starts as compared to his 4.78 ERA and a .245 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland ranks 22nd and 21st in MLB this season since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-23 |
Reds v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (56-48) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-0 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-43) has lost three of their last four games after an 8-1 loss to Toronto on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played five straight Unders while not giving up more than three runs in those contests. But they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. Williamson gets the ball with a 2-2 record along with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.07 and 5.10 moving forward. He has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.95 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in five starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 win seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers lineup that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 batting average, a .375 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .877 during that span. Los Angeles ranks sixth and second this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. They have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by six or more runs. The Dodgers have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They counter with Miller who has a 6-1 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts as opposed to his 2.63 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 on the road. The Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank eighth in MLB since the beginning of May in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-23 |
Nationals v. Mets -180 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (954) versus the Washington Nationals (953) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and MacKenzie Gore. THE SITUATION: New York (48-54) has won two of their last six games after their 2-1 victory at home against the Nationals last night. Washington (43-60) had won two games in a row before that loss on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 11 of their last 16 games after a win by one run in their last game. Scherzer gets the start tonight looking to improve on his 8-4 record along with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.81 and 4.13 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.36 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in six starts as compared to his 5.16 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in 12 starts on the road. His teams have won 20 of their last 32 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He should have success against this Nationals team that ranks 29th in MLB since June 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington has lost 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by one run. They have also lost 10 of their last 15 games on the road when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. The Nationals counter with Gore who has a 6-7 record with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 20 starts. The left-hander has a 4.04 ERA in his nine starts at home — but that number rises to a 4.60 mark in his 11 starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has lost 17 of their last 26 games against fellow NL East rivals. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (954) versus the Washington Nationals (953) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and MacKenzie Gore. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-27-23 |
Nationals v. Mets UNDER 9 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the New York Mets (902) listing both starting pitchers Josiah Gray and Kodai Senga. THE SITUATION: Washington (43-59) has won five of their last six games after their 5-4 victory against Colorado yesterday. New York (47-54) has lost three of their last four games after their 3-1 loss on the road against the New York Yankees yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by just one run. They have also played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They give the ball to Gray who has a 7-8 record with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 4.57 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in eight starts — but those numbers improve in his 12 starts on the road where he has a 2.74 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241. Washington has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Gray pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. He should have success against this Mets team that ranks 27th and 23rd in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York has played 19 of their last 30 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. They return home to Citi Field where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Mets have also played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when listed as a money-line favorite priced at -150 or higher. They counter with Senga who has a 7-5 record with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he owns a 2.50 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.07 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in nine starts on the road. New York has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with Senga on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Nationals rank 29th in MLB since June 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the New York Mets (902) listing both starting pitchers Josiah Gray and Kodai Senga. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-23 |
Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 |
|
13-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Texas (59-43) has lost four of their last five games after their 4-3 loss on the road against the Astros last night. Houston (58-44) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a win by just one run. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a victory by just one run against a fellow AL West opponent. All three of Houston’s wins during their current winning streak have been by just one run — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by just one run. The Astros have also played 13 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Valdez gets the ball looking to build on his 8-6 record along with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 19 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.13 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 11 starts as compared to his 4.11 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eight starts. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home with Valdez on the mound priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. He faces a Rangers lineup that pounded left-handed pitching earlier in the season — but Texas ranks just 19th and 20th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since June 1st on the road against left-handed pitchers. The Rangers fall even further since July in those categories as they rank 24th and 23rd since the beginning of the month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against lefties. Texas has asked their bullpen to log in 9 1/3 innings of work in their last two games — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when their bullpen has pitched nine or more combined innings in their last two games. The Rangers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175. They counter with Heaney who has a 6-6 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 19 starts. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 4.97 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in 12 starts — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 3.99 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 36 of their last 54 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 8* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-23 |
Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -135 |
Top |
11-7 |
Loss |
-135 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Arizona (55-47) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory at home against the Cardinals last night. St. Louis (45-57) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona was trailing 1-0 going into the bottom of the eighth inning before they scored three times to take a two-run lead. Kevin Ginkel then came on in the top of the ninth to secure the victory by registering his third save of the season as he seems to have become manager Torey Lovullo’s trusted closer at this moment. The Diamondbacks have won 24 of their last 36 games after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. They have also won 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. Additionally, Arizona has won 31 of their last 54 games after winning their last game. They have won 23 of their last 34 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have won 28 of their last 40 games after losing four of their last five games. They complete this series this afternoon in this getaway game at home where they have won 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Gallen gets the start boasting an 11-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a sterling 1.48 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in ten starts as opposed to his 4.97 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 11 starts on the road. Arizona has won 20 of their last 25 games at home with Gallen on the mound. St. Louis has lost 14 of their last 22 games after blowing a save opportunity in their last game. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Cardinals have lost 27 of their last 44 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They complete their seven-game road trip in this afternoon getaway game having lost 9 of their last 14 games after playing six or more games in a row on the road. St. Louis has lost 15 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Flaherty who has a 7-6 record with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.70 and 4.41 moving forward. He has a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in eight starts at home — and those numbers rise to a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in his 11 starts on the road. The Cardinals have lost 17 of their last 28 games with Flaherty on the hill on the road as an underdog. Flaherty also has a rough 5.66 ERA in his nine-day starts this season.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks rank eighth and tenth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-25-23 |
Blue Jays v. Dodgers -132 |
|
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (929) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Chris Bassitt. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (57-42) has lost two games in a row after their 6-3 loss at home to the Blue Jays in the opening game of this series. Toronto (56-45) has won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has rebounded to win 28 of their last 41 games after losing their previous game. They have also won 29 of their last 37 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150 — and this includes 16 of these 22 situations this season. Urias gets the start looking to improve his disappointing 7-6 record with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 14 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be giving up at least one run fewer per game with both his SIERA and XFIP projecting an ERA of 4.07 and 4.25 moving forward. The left-hander has struggled mostly on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.88 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .309 in eight starts — but in his six starts at home, he has a 2.15 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179. Los Angeles has won 26 of their last 35 games at home with Urias on the hill pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. Toronto has lost 5 of their last 8 road games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175. They counter with Bassitt who has a 10-5 record with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 21 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.31 and 4.37 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.24 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .167 in ten starts — but in his 11 starts on the road, he has a 5.81 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in 11 starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 44 of their last 63 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. 8* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (929) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Chris Bassitt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-25-23 |
Reds v. Brewers -137 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-137 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (904) versus the Cincinnati Reds (903) listing both starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Andrew Abbott. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-45) has won two of their last three games — and eight of their last 13 contests — after their 3-2 victory in the opening game of this series. Cincinnati (55-47) had their five-game winning streak snapped in the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 13 of their 19 games this month — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by one run against an NL Central rival. The Brewers have also won 15 of their last 23 games at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range — and they have won 11 of their last 17 home games when priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Burnes gets the ball looking to improve his 9-5 record along with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 20 starts. The former Cy Young Award winner experienced a drop in his velocity earlier in the season — but his velocity is back, particularly with his cutter which is one of the best pitches in MLB when it looks like his four-seamer. In his four starts this month, he has a 1.33 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP with an outstanding net 27% K-BB rate in his 27 innings. The Brewers have won 13 of their last 15 games in July when Burnes is on the mound. The right-hander has been more effective all season at night when he has a 3.18 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in 13 starts. Cincinnati has lost 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by one run to a division rival — and they have lost 15 of their last 24 games after a loss by two runs or less. Additionally, the Reds have lost 14 of their last 22 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. And while they have played three straight Unders, they have then lost 5 of their last 6 games after playing three straight Unders. They counter with Abbott who has a 5-2 record with a 2.10 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.36 and 4.62 moving forward. The left-hander allowed only two runs in six innings of work against the Brewers two starts ago on July 15th — that start was at his home park at the Great American Ballpark where he enjoys a 1.60 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .118 in five starts. But in his four starts on the road, Abbott has a 2.86 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238.
FINAL TAKE: The Brewers have struggled with their bats most of the season — but since the beginning of June, they rank second and third in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (904) versus the Cincinnati Reds (903) listing both starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Andrew Abbott. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-24-23 |
Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -130 |
|
10-6 |
Loss |
-130 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Arizona (54-46) looks to end a four-game losing streak after their 7-3 loss at Cincinnati on Sunday. St. Louis (44-56) is on a three-game losing streak after their 7-3 loss in Chicago against the Cubs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has bounced back to win 28 of their last 39 games after losing four of their last five games — and they have won 11 of their last 14 games after losing four or more games in a row. After playing their last nine games on the road, they return home where they have won 9 of their last 14 home games when priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Nelson gets the start looking to improve his 6-5 record along with his 4.82 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has enjoyed better results since changing his pitch emphasis by throwing his changeup and leaning less on his four-seam fastball. He has held four of his last five opponents to two earned runs or less — posting a 3.60 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in those five starts. St. Louis has lost 10 of their last 12 games on the road after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also lost 11 of their last 17 games after losing three or more games in a row. And in their last 12 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range, they have lost 9 of these games. They counter with Wainwright who comes off the injured list tonight after dealing with right shoulder issues. He has a rough 3-4 record with a 7.66 ERA and a 1.99 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The 41-year-old has been even worse under the lights where he has a 9.23 ERA, a 2.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .369 in six starts at night this season.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis won the last meeting between these teams by a 14-5 score back on April 19th — and the Diamondbacks have won 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 10 or more runs. 8* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-24-23 |
Pirates v. Padres -1.5 |
Top |
8-4 |
Loss |
-125 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (957) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Quinn Priester. THE SITUATION: San Diego (48-52) was on a two-game winning streak before their 3-1 loss at Detroit yesterday. Pittsburgh (43-56) has lost two of their last three games after their 7-5 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego had won four of their last five games before their loss to the Tigers yesterday. The Padres have held their last six opponents to four runs or less — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than four runs in four or more games in a row. Darvish gets the start tonight looking to continue his recent good form. He has allowed only one earned run in his last two starts — posting a 0.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in those 12 innings while striking out 16 batters. He has a 7-6 record with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 17 starts this season — but the deeper sabermetrics indicate he has deserved better with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 3.77 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.83 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in eight starts as opposed to his 4.86 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine starts on the road. San Diego has won 16 of their last 23 games at home when Darvish is on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games when Darvish is on the hill after giving up one earned run or less in two straight starts. He should continue his good run tonight against this Pirates team that ranks last in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .215 batting average, a .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .634 in that span. The Pirates started well in April — but they have since cratered having lost 14 of their last 18 games this month. Pittsburgh has lost 27 of their last 38 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They continue their road trip having lost 17 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have lost 12 of their last 18 road games as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. They counter with Priester who is making his second-career MLB appearance. He got his hard in his MLB debut last Monday as he allowed seven runs in 5 1/3 innings at home against Cleveland. The Pirates are very high on the 22-year-old — but he only had a 4.31 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 87 2/3 innings at Triple-A this season. He faces a hot-hitting Padres lineup that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .759 OPS. San Diego ranks sixth and third this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. These two teams last played on June 29th when the Pirates completed a three-game sweep (all upsets wins at home) with a 5-4 win — but San Diego has won 12 of their last 14 games when looking to avenge three-straight upset losses to their opponent.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego is inconsistent — but when they win, it usually is by multiple runs. In fact, in their 30 games when priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 price threshold, all 17 of their victories have been by one run. They have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their last 16 games when priced above -150. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their 30 games this season priced as a money-pine underdog priced at +145 or higher with just two losses by just one run — and they have lost five of their last seven games (all by more than one run) under those circumstances. Let’s lower the investment price on the Padres by taking the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the San Diego Padres (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (957) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Quinn Priester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-23-23 |
Mets v. Red Sox -132 |
|
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Carlos Carrasco. THE SITUATION: Boston (52-47) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 8-6 victory at home against the Mets yesterday. New York (46-52) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mets have lost 31 of their last 52 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. New York has also lost 23 of their last 30 games as an underdog — and they have lost 14 of their last 19 road games as an underdog priced up to +150. Carrasco gets the start with his 3-3 record along with a 5.35 era and a 1.45 whip in 13 starts. Unfortunately for the Mets, the deeper sabermetrics suggest he has not been underperforming his underlying peripheral numbers given that his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.16 and 5.02 moving forward. New York has lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road with Carrasco their starting pitcher when priced as a money-line underdog. Boston has won 31 of their last 51 games after winning their last game — and they have won 17 of their last 24 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last contest. The Red Sox have also won 13 of their last 21 games at home when priced as the favorite in the -110 to -150 money-line range. Manager Alex Cora will be using this contest as a bullpen game — but he has good options available to him. Bernardino gets the start with his 1-0 record along with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 32 2/3 innings. Chris Murphy is lined up to get several innings tonight. He has a 0-0 record with a 1.69 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Those hurlers are both left-handers — and the Mets have lost 22 of their last 32 games against a left-handed starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: New York ranks 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers — and they fall to 26th in both those metrics since June 1st. 8* MLB Sunday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Carlos Carrasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-23-23 |
Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. THE SITUATION: Houston (55-44) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-1 loss on the road against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (28-73) has won three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game — including 12 of these last 18 circumstances this season. Houston completes their nine-game road trip today — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their previous seven games on the road. The Astros have also played 38 of their last 58 road games Under the Total when priced as a -125 or higher favorite. Brown gets the start with his 6-7 record along with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are promising with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.42 and 3.05 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.79 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in ten starts as compared to his 4.89 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in eight starts at home. Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total with Brown pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 1.89 ERA in their last five games — and the Astros have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last five games. Brown and the Houston pen face an A’s team that is only scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average. Oakland ranks 30th and 29th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in a victory against a divisional rival in their last game. The A’s have also played 14 of their last 23 games at home as an underdog priced from +150 to +200. They complete a ten-game home stand this afternoon — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing six or more games in a row at home. They counter with Medina who has a 3-7 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 13 games including nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate he should be giving about a run less per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.62 and 4.47 moving forward. Most of the damage against him has taken place on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.16 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 32 2/3 innings — he has a more respectable 4.41 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in 32 2/3 innings at home. Furthermore, the right-hander has made an adjustment recently that is generating better results. He has introduced a sinker into his arsenal which he is throwing in place of his four-seamer — and he is using his slider more to offset this new pitch. Medina has a 3.12 ERA in his last five appearances with 28 strikeouts in those 26 innings. He faces an Astros lineup missing the injured Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve — they are scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Games against right-handed starting pitchers with a .238 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .678.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB AL West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-23 |
Pirates v. Angels -178 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-178 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (980) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (979) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Ryan Borucki. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-48) has won four straight games after their 7-3 win at home against the Pirates last night. Pittsburgh (42-55) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is showing some signs of life with the trade deadline looming which is forcing an existential question on management regarding what to do with Ohtani who is eligible for free agency at the end o the season. The Angels have won 15 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They have also won 22 of their last 32 games at home when priced from -175 to -250. Detmers comes into this game with a 2-6 record along with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.79 and 3.91 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.63 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts as compared to his 5.71 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in seven starts on the road. Pittsburgh has lost 22 of their last 29 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also lost 24 of their last 33 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Bido was initially set to get the start tonight with his 1-1 record along with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in seven appearances (six starts) — but Burucki will serve as the opener before likely giving way to the right-hander. Burucki has a 4.63 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP this season coming out of the bullpen. Bido’s ERA goes up to 5.19 in his four starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: After a good start to the season, the Pirates rank last in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Satuday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (980) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (979) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Ryan Borucki. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-23 |
White Sox v. Twins -130 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Dylan Cease. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (51-48) has won six of their last eight games after their 9-4 victory against the White Sox in the opening game of this series last night. Chicago (41-58) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota struggles against good teams — they have just a 25-32 record against teams with a .500 or better record. But the Twins do feast on bad teams as they have a 27-17 record against teams with a losing record after last night’s victory. They have won 10 of their 16 games this month. They have also won 15 of their last 23 games at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. And in their last 39 games when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150, they have won 24 of these contests. Gray gets the start looking to get back on track after surrendering five and six earned runs in his last two starts. Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games when Gray is on the mound after allowing five or more earned runs in two straight games. He has a 4-4 record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts at home as compared to his 3.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in nine starts on the road. He should bounce back tonight against this White Sox team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .230 batting average, a .282 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .654. They rank 28th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Chicago continues to implode as they play their eighth straight game away from home. They have lost 10 of their 15 games this month — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games after playing their previous six games on the road. The White Sox have lost 21 of their last 35 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 30 of their last 47 games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. They counter with Cease who has a 4-3 record with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 4.04 ERA in ten starts — but his ERA rises to a 4.33 ERA in his ten starts on the road. He also has a 4.52 ERA in his 11 starts under the lights at night. Cease has struggled this month with a 4.96 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a .299 opponent’s batting average in his three starts in July.
FINAL TAKE: The Twins are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .882 during that span. After underwhelming with their bats most of the season, Minnesota ranks third in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Dylan Cease. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-23 |
Pirates v. Angels -174 |
|
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (930) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (929) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Johan Oviedo. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-48) has won three straight games after their 7-3 win against the New York Yankees on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (42-54) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 7-5 victory against Cleveland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is showing some signs of life with the trade deadline looming which is forcing an existential question on management regarding what to do with Ohtani who is eligible for free agency at the end o the season. The Angels have won 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also won 21 of their last 21 games at home when priced from -175 to -250. Ohtani comes into this game with a 7-5 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 18 starts. He has been dealing with a cracked fingernail and a blister on his throwing hand — but the reports indicate his hand has healed. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .172 in ten starts as compared to his 4.60 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in eight starts on the road. Los Angeles has won 9 of their last 12 home games with Ohtani on the mound priced as a money-line favorite from -150 to -200. Pittsburgh has lost 21 of their last 28 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also lost 23 of their last 32 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Oviedo gets the start tonight who has a 3-10 record along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 4.35 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in ten starts — but in his nine starts on the road, he has a 4.75 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in nine starts.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have lost 25 of their last 31 games as a money-line underdog with Oviedo as their starting pitcher. 8* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (930) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (929) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Johan Oviedo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-21-23 |
Royals v. Yankees -1.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (913) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Alec Marsh. THE SITUATION: New York (50-47) has lost four games in a row after their 7-3 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Wednesday. Kansas City (28-70) has lost five of their last seven games after their 3-0 loss at home against Detroit yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York is struggling right now — but returning home to Yankee Stadium should help after completing a six-game road trip. The Yankees have won 13 of their last 17 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games when priced from -175 to -200. New York has won 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games after winning four of their last five games. The Yankees miss the injured Aaron Judge who remains out with his toe injury — they have not scored more than three runs in their last three games. But New York has won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. Schmidt gets the start as he looks to win his fourth straight start and improve on his 5-6 record along with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 20 games (19 starts). The right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in 11 starts — and he has a 2.83 ERA in his last ten starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.93 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in 12 games (11 starts) as opposed to his 4.85 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .273 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. He should thrive against a Royals team that ranks last in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they also rank last in those categories this month. Kansas City has lost 29 of their last 37 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest — and they have lost 21 of their last 26 games after scoring one run or less in their last game. Additionally, the Royals have lost 12 straight games on the road where they scored one run or less in a loss to an AL Central rival. They only scored two runs in their previous game against the Tigers — and they have lost 14 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. On the road, they are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .225 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .631. They counter with Marsh who has lost all three of his starts since being promoted to the major leagues. The right-hander has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his 15 innings of work. He is walking too many batters by averaging 4.8 bases-on-balls per nine innings. He has also already served up five homers.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends mentioned above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying with this play. The Yankees may be struggling — but they are still taking care of business when priced as a big favorite. New York has won covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 12 of their 15 wins when priced higher than -150 (while getting upset five times in those situations. Kansas City has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 33 of their 49 games this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — they have lost by one run in these circumstances five times while pulling off the upset just 15 times. Let’s lower the investment price by taking advantage of the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Month with New York Yankees (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (913) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Alec Marsh. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-20-23 |
Cardinals v. Cubs -110 |
|
7-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (958) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (957) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: Chicago (45-50) has won two games in a row after their 8-3 victory against Washington yesterday. St. Louis (43-53) has lost won five games in a row after a 6-4 victory against Miami on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago preceded their victory against the Nationals on Wednesday with a dominant 17-3 win against them on Tuesday in their part of the high-scoring games in MLB two days ago. The Cubs have won 9 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row by four or more runs. And while their bullpen blew a 3-1 lead in the top of the eighth inning yesterday before they responded by scoring five runs in the bottom of that inning, Chicago has won 7 of their last 8 games after their bullpen blew a save in their last game. Stroman gets the ball tonight to build on his 10-6 record along with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 20 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.69 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a .167 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as opposed to his 3.11 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in ten starts on the road. The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 games with Stroman on the hill with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. St. Louis has not allowed four runs in four straight games — but they have then lost 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than four runs in four straight games. The Cardinals have also lost 14 of their last 21 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Matz who has an 0-7 record with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 76 innings of work as a starter or out of the bullpen. While the left-hander has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in 41 2/3 innings at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 6.03 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .324 in 34 1/3 innings on the road. St. Louis has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Matz on the mound when riding a winning streak of three or more games.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs rank 12th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with money-line on the Chicago Cubs (958) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (957) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-23 |
Twins v. Mariners -142 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-142 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (920) versus the Minnesota Twins (919) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Kenta Maeda. THE SITUATION: Seattle (47-47) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 10-3 loss at home to the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (49-47) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Twins have lost 9 of their last 11 games after losing four of their last five games. They have also lost 37 of their last 55 games on the road when listed as a money-line underdog — and they have lost 19 of their last 27 games when listed as a money-line underdog up to +150. Maeda gets the start looking to build off his 2-5 record with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander missed all of last season coming off Tommy John surgery — and in his last full season back two years ago, he struggled for the Twins when pitching away from Target Field. While Maeda had a 2.13 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in seven starts at home in 2021, those numbers skyrocketed in his 14 starts on the road where he had a 6.06 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .268. Minnesota has lost 6 straight games on the road with Maeda on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Seattle has won 41 of their last 71 games after a loss by four or more runs. They counter with Castillo who has a 6-7 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching at home where he has a 2.65 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in 12 starts as opposed to his 3.51 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in seven starts on the road. The Mariners have won 8 of their last 12 home games with Castillo their starting pitchers favored at -110 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home by six or more runs. 8* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (920) versus the Minnesota Twins (919) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Kenta Maeda. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-23 |
Tigers -143 v. Royals |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (917) versus the Kansas City Royals (918) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough. THE SITUATION: Detroit (42-52) has lost two of their last three games after their 11-10 loss on the road against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (28-68) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Detroit has bounced back to win 11 of their last 17 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their last contest — and they have won 24 of their last 39 games after a high-scoring game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Tigers have still won 8 of their last 12 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games overall when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. Rodriguez gets the start coming off a solid outing where he allowed two runs and three hits in five innings of work at Seattle on Friday in his second start since returning from the injured list. The lefty has a 5-5 record with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 13 starts — and he has been consistent when pitching on the road where he has a 2.70 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts. His teams have won 23 of their 31 road games when he is their starting pitcher when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Kansas City has lost 11 of their last 12 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games after scoring 10 or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Royals have lost 8 of their last 12 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their last contest. Kansas City took advantage of almost all their scoring opportunities last night as they only stranded three runners — but they have then lost 11 of their last 12 games after stranding three or fewer runners in their last contest. The Royals have still lost 29 of their last 42 games at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have lost 24 of their last 36 home games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Yarbrough who has returned from his extended time on the shelf after getting nailed in the head by a line drive in May. The left-hander has a 2-4 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 32 2/3 innings. But while he has a respectable 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .262 opponent’s batting average in his 17 2/3 innings on the road, he has been saddled with a 7.36 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in his 14 2/3 innings at home. His teams have lost 16 of his 25 starts at home when the Total is set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit ranks 14th and 13th respectively since June 1st on the road against left-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created — and they rank 11th and 9th in those analytics since the beginning of July. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (917) versus the Kansas City Royals (918) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-18-23 |
Tigers -140 v. Royals |
|
10-11 |
Loss |
-140 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (963) versus the Kansas City Royals (964) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Daniel Lynch. THE SITUATION: Detroit (42-51) has won three of their last four games after their 3-2 victory on the road against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (27-68) has lost three of their last four games as well as nine of their last 11 contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Detroit bounced back nicely after getting shutout by a 2-0 score at Seattle on Sunday — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. The Tigers have also won 6 of their last 8 games on the road when priced as a money-line favorite of -110 or higher. Skubal makes his third start of the season after two scoreless outings where he allowed just two hits. The left-hander missed the opening three months of the season as he recovered from elbow surgery. Manager A.J. Finch has been cautious with not overworking him in his return — but after getting extra days off from the All-Star break after last pitching on July 9th, Skubal should be up for more innings tonight. The underlying numbers look very good for the 27-year-old with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.39 and 2.46 moving forward. His velocity is up from last season when he enjoyed a 7-8 record with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts. The sabermetrics confirmed his strong campaign given his 3.58 SIERA and his 3.40 xFIP. He was also more effective on the road where he had a 3.31 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 11 starts as opposed to his more modest 3.81 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in ten starts. Detroit has won 3 of their 4 games when Skubal was pitching on the road as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should fare well against this Royals team that has lost 18 of their last 25 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has lost 45 of their last 66 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 36 of their last 47 games after losing two of their last three games. And while the Royals have not allowed more than four runs in three straight games, they have then lost 6 games in a row after not giving up more than four runs in three straight games. They counter with Lynch who has a 2-4 record with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.15 and 5.23 moving forward. The left-hander has pitched well on the road where he has a 2.52 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in four starts, those numbers rise to a 6.04 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in his four starts at home. The Royals have lost 4 of their last 5 games at home with Lynch pitching as a money-line underdog priced from +150 to +200.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers rank in the top half of the league at 13th and 12th this month on the road against left-handed pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. 8* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (963) versus the Kansas City Royals (964) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Daniel Lynch. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-18-23 |
Dodgers v. Orioles -117 |
Top |
10-3 |
Loss |
-117 |
4 h 10 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (974) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (973) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Michael Grove. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (57-36) was on an eight-game winning streak before their 6-4 loss at home to the Dodgers in the opening game of this Interleague series. Los Angeles (54-39) won for the seventh time in their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore had scored at least five runs in five straight games before only scoring the four runs last night. The Orioles have won 22 of their last 35 games after a loss — and they have won 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also won 21 of their last 32 games after winning five or six of their last seven contest. In their last 43 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150, they have won 31 of those games including 14 of their last 19 at home priced up to -150. They have a big pitching edge tonight with Wells on the mound. The right-hander has a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 18 games (17 starts). He has been a model of consistency by allowing two runs or less in eight straight starts since late May. He boasts a 2.83 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP during that span. Wells has also been more effective at home at Camden Yards where he has a 2.57 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in nine starts as opposed to his 3.88 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in his nine appearances on the road. Baltimore has won 5 of their last 7 games with Wells on the mound priced in the +/- 125 money-line price range. The Dodgers are slumping this month with their bats — they rank 17th and 19th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The injuries that have ravaged the Los Angeles pitching staff require manager Dave Roberts to turn to Grove tonight despite his 1-2 record, 6.89 ERA, and a 1.55 WHIP in 47 innings. He has allowed four earned runs in five of his last seven appearances. The right-hander has been solid at home where he has a 4.83 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in 31 2/3 innings including five starts in his seven appearances — but in his 15 1/3 innings on the road which includes three starts in his four games, he has an 11.15 ERA, a 2.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .427. Los Angeles has lost 13 of their last 21 games on the road as a money-line underdog — and they have lost 14 of their last 21 games as a dog priced up to +150. The Dodgers are only hitting .237 on the road with a .318 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .753.
FINAL TAKE: The Orioles rank ninth and seventh at home against right-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since June 1st. 25* MLB TBS-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (974) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (973) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Michael Grove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-17-23 |
Twins v. Mariners -122 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (916) versus the Minnesota Twins (915) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Seattle (46-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 2-0 win at home against Detroit yesterday. Minnesota (48-46) has won three games in a row after their 5-4 win at Oakland on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle failed to score more than four runs for the fifth straight game yesterday — but they have won 21 of their last 32 games after not scoring more than four runs in four or more games in a row. Gilbert gets the start tonight as he looks to build on his 7-5 record along with a 3.66 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 18 starts this season. The right-hander is pitching as well right now as at any point of the season with his fastball topping out at 97 miles per hour recently. In his last two starts, he has a 0.56 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP while allowing just one run in his 16 innings of work. The Mariners have won 18 of their last 24 games when Gilbert is on the mound after not allowing more than two earned runs in his last two starts. He faces a Twins lineup that ranks 25th and 22nd this season on the road against right-handed pitching in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. Minnesota has lost 14 of their last 23 games after winning three of their last four games. They have also lost 14 of their last 20 games on the road as an underdog priced up to +150. They counter with Gray who has a 4-3 record along with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.15 and 3.76 moving forward. Additionally, while the right-hander has a 1.19 WHIP in his ten starts at home, that number rises to a 1.38 WHIP run in his eight starts on the road with the primary problem being issuing more free passes. Gray is averaging 2.84 walks per nine innings at home — but he is walking 4.42 batters per nine innings on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners are hitting better this month — they rank 13th and 11th in MLB in July in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (916) versus the Minnesota Twins (915) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-17-23 |
Yankees v. Angels -131 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (912) versus the New York Yankees (911) listing both starting pitchers Griffin Canning and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (46-48) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 9-8 loss at home to Houston on Sunday. New York (50-44) has lost three of their last after their 8-7 loss in 11 innings at Colorado yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is imploding with seven losses in their last eight games — and they have lost 11 times in their last 13 contests. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon recently hit the injured list — and the pressure is mounting that the organization will have to trade Shohei Ohtani at the trade deadline looming in the next two weeks to secure some value for the impending free agent. But the Angels are hitting the baseball — they have scored at least five runs in four straight games while putting up 21 combined runs in their last two contests. Their bullpen let them down yesterday with the team entering the ninth inning with a 7-5 lead before the Astros scored four runs in the top of the inning. But Los Angeles has won 9 of their last 14 games after their relievers blew a save in their last game. They have won 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by just one run — and they have won 4 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored eight or more runs. Furthermore, while the Angels have played five straight games where 12 or more combined runs were scored, they have then won 9 of their last 14 games after playing four games in a row with 12 or more combined runs scored. They should get a good pitching effort from Canning tonight. The right-hand has a 6-4 record with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP but the deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.12 and 4.11 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he has a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .218 in six starts as opposed to his 1.25 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 12 games at home with Canning their starting pitcher. They host a Yankees team that is struggling as much as they are right now. New York misses Aaron Judge who remains out with a toe injury. In their last seven games, the Yankees are scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .224 batting average, a .294 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .648. They scored 15 runs over the weekend under new hitting coach Sean Casey — but those games were in Coors Field so perhaps that is not validation quite yet regarding the hire of a guy out of the MLB Network booth who has never coached MLB before (granted, Aaron Boone lacked coaching experience as well before management plucked him from ESPN to be their next skipper a few years ago). New York’s bullpen imploded yesterday to let Gerrit Cole down — they gave up four runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to blow a 3-1 lead before giving up another by allowing another three runs in extra innings to lose that game. The Yankees have lost 16 of their last 24 games after their bullpen gave up five or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after their bullpen allowed six or more runs in their last contest. They have also lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have lost 11 of their last 17 road games when priced as a money-line underdog up to +150. They counter with Severino who is 1-4 with a 7.38 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in what has been a nightmare of a season. The right-hander has experienced regression in each of his pitches in his arsenal — and it is only getting worse. Since the beginning of June, Severino has a 9.80 ERA and a 2.24 WHIP in his 30 1/3 innings. He has served up 15 home runs since the start of June. And it has been worse on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.27 ERA, a 2.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .360 in five starts as opposed to his 5.31 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in four starts at home. The Yankees have lost 9 of their last 10 games with Severino their starting pitcher and priced in the +/- 125 money-line range — and they have lost 21 of their last 29 road games with Severino on the hill priced in the +/- 125 money-line price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels may be without Trout — but they still have Ohtani swinging from the left side of the plate. Los Angeles ranks 11th in MLB this season at home against right-handed pitching in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (912) versus the New York Yankees (911) listing both starting pitchers Griffin Canning and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-16-23 |
Astros -115 v. Angels |
|
9-8 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (969) versus the Los Angeles Angels (970) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Tyler Anderson. THE SITUATION: Houston (51-42) has lost two of their last three games after their 13-12 loss on the road against the Angels in extra innings yesterday. Los Angeles (46-47) snapped a six-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston should bounce back tonight as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a division rival — and they have won a decisive 49 of their last 71 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing ten or more runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have won 7 of their last 10 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. They give the ball to Javier who has a 7-1 record with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been hit hard in his last two starts on the road where he allowed 14 combined runs while not getting out of the fifth inning in either contest. He was scratched from his last start to give him extended time off with the All-Star Break — so he should be fresh for his return to the mound. Despite those ugly outings at St. Louis and Texas which did elevate his ERA on the road to 5.47, his WHIP and opponent’s batting average of 1.22 and .243 in his nine starts on the road compare favorably to his 1.21 WHIP and a .252 opponent’s batting average in his eight starts at home. Javier posted a 2.84 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .186 in his 73 innings on the road last year, so he should right the proverbial ship in the second half. The Astros have won 7 of their last 9 games on the road with Javier as their starting pitcher. Los Angeles has lost 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory at home as an underdog — and they have lost 8 of their last 13 games after a win by just one run. The Angels have also lost 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set at 10 or higher. They counter with Anderson who has a 4-2 record with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 16 games (15 starts). The left-hander has struggled even more in night games when he has a 5.43 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts) as opposed to his 4.85 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five starts during the day. His teams have lost 10 of his last 14 starts at home with the Total set at 10 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss where their opponent scored 12 or more runs. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (969) versus the Los Angeles Angels (970) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Tyler Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-23 |
Astros v. Angels UNDER 8 |
|
12-13 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (919) and the Los Angeles Angels (920) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Reid Detmers. THE SITUATION: Houston (51-41) has won two of their last three games after their 7-5 victory on the road against the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (45-47) has lost six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 9 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Valdez gets the ball for the start tonight to build on his 7-6 record along with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander was more effective on the road last season when he had a 2.27 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in 17 starts as compared to his 3.54 ERA, a 1.26 WIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in 14 starts. This season, while his ERA of 3.23 in his six starts on the road is higher than his 2.13 ERA in 11 starts at home — but his opponent’s batting average of .213 on the road is lower than his .230 opponent’s batting average at home. Houston has played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Valdez on the hill priced as a money-line road favorite from -125 to -175. Los Angeles has given up seven or more runs in three straight games — but they have played 21 of their last 34 games Under the Total after allowing seven or more runs in three or more games in a row. The Angels have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total. They counter with Detmers who has a 2-6 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.70 and 3.85 moving forward. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.35 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in nine starts as opposed to his 5.71 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in seven starts on the road. The Angels have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total with Detmers on the hill priced as a money-line underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels are missing two of their best right-handed bats with both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon out with injuries. Since June 1st, Los Angeles ranks 28th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (919) and the Los Angeles Angels (920) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Reid Detmers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-23 |
Padres v. Phillies -113 |
|
4-9 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (904) versus the San Diego Padres (903) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (49-42) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 6-4 victory in the opening game of their doubleheader this afternoon. San Diego (44-48) was on a three-game winning streak before the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won 24 of their last 35 games when a money-line favorite priced up to -150 — and they have won 10 of their last 15 games at home when a money-line favorite priced up to -150. Walker gets the ball to build on his 10-3 record along with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.25 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 11 starts — but in his seven starts at home, he owns a sparkling 2.13 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .155. The Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 games at home with Walker on the mound. They have also won 8 of their last 9 games with Walker their starting pitcher when priced in the +/- 125 money-line range. San Diego went into today’s doubleheader having won six of their last seven games — but they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They counter with Weathers who has a 1-5 record with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 11 games (nine starts). In his last six appearances since May 14th, the lefty has been saddled with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in 22 innings. The Padres have lost 14 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 road games as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia ranks ninth and eighth in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (904) versus the San Diego Padres (903) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-14-23 |
Red Sox -126 v. Cubs |
|
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (977) versus the Chicago Cubs (978) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Kyle Hendricks. THE SITUATION: Boston (48-43) went into the All-Star Break on a five-game winning streak — and they have won eight of their last nine games — after their 4-3 win against Oakland on Sunday. Chicago (42-47) returns from the break having won four of their last six games after a 7-4 win in New York against the Yankees on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston should keep up their momentum as they have won 29 of their last 47 games after winning their previous game. They have also won 11 of their last 17 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Red Sox begin this road trip having won 26 of their last 42 games on the road when priced as a money-line favorite priced from -125 to -175. Bello gets the start looking to build on his 6-5 record along with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.87 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in five starts as opposed to his 3.14 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245. The Red Sox have won 4 of his 5 starts on the road this season. Bello faces a Cubs team that ranks 18th and 19th in MLB in weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago counters with Hendricks who has a 3-3 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.85 and 4.79 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.80 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in four starts as compared to his 2.53 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .186 in five starts.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has lost 19 of their last 29 games at home when priced in the +125 to -125 money-line range. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (977) versus the Chicago Cubs (978) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Kyle Hendricks. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-23 |
National League +100 v. American League |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the National League (948) versus the American League (947) in the All-Star Game. THE SITUATION: The National League is the road team this year with this game taking place at T-Mobile Park, the home of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The American League has won nine straight midsummer classics after beating the NL by a 3-2 score last year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I think the NL ends their losing streak for three reasons. First, the American League is missing more of their top stars than the National League. Granted, the NL would be better off if they have starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Clayton Kershaw in the mix — but Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson still has some good options in his pitching staff for this game. Houston Astros manager Dusty Baker will not have the services of Shane McClanahan, Kevin Gausman, Framber Valdez, and Shohei Ohtani (although Ohtani will hit). The AL is also missing three of their best sluggers in Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Yordan Alvarez. Second, the core of the NL team consists of eight players from the Atlanta Braves. With Ronald Acuna, Sean Murphy, and Orlando Arcia in the starting lineup and Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley coming off the bench, the best team in MLB is well-represented. The NL roster complements these players with stars like Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Luis Arraez, and rookie phenom Corbin Carrol. The core of the AL team consists of five players from the Texas Rangers, including four in the starting lineup. I love Marcus Siemien for the fantasy team — but I will take the Braves versus the Rangers, no offense to third basemen Josh Jung or catcher Jonah Heim.
Third, I think the NL pitchers compare favorably to the AL pitchers available for this game. Thomson will not have Bryce Elder nor Marcus Stroman either — but I consider that addition by subtraction. Elder has a 2.97 ERA — but I put more stock in the deeper sabermetrics with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.39 and 4.15 moving forward. Stroman has a 2.96 ERA — but his 4.02 SIERRA and 3.62 xFIP call for significant regression. Zac Gallen gets the start — he has a 3.05 ERA with a solid 3.53 SIERA and 3.45 xFIP marks. Alex Cobb is underrated with a 2.91 ERA backed by a 3.51 SIERA and 3.22 xFIP. Mitch Keller has a 3.31 ERA supported by a 3.66 SIERA and .3.56 xFIP. Justin Steele is also underrated with his 2.56 ERA backed by a 3.91 SIERA and a 3.83 xFIP. But perhaps the best-hidden gem at Thomson’s disposal is Kodai Senga. He struggled initially this season by allowing at least three earned runs in six straight starts. And while the first-year MLBer has a 3.31 ERA after pitching in Japan, he sports a 2.53 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 40 strikeouts in his last 32 innings spanning five starts. Corbin Burnes and Josiah Gray are also available starting pitchers — but I’m not as big a fan. The NL relievers consisting of Josh Hader, Devin Williams, Alexis Diaz, and Camilo Doval are all reliable. Gerrit Cole gets the start for the AL — but his 2.83 ERA is betrayed by his 3.85 SIERA and 3.87 xFIP. Nathan Eovaldi had a great start to the season and currently holds a 2.83 ERA. But in his last six starts, the Rangers’ right-hander has a 4.10 ERA with 17 walks in those 37 1/3 innings. He only walked 14 batters in his first 80 1/3 innings this season. Sonny Gray’s 2.89 ERA conflicts with his 4.04 SIERA and 3.76 xFIP. Admittedly, I have no qualms with Pablo Lopez, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby relative to their frontline numbers. But then there is Detroit’s representative in Michael Lorenzen who has a 4.03 ERA along with a 4.41 SIERA and 4.21 xFIP. Baker will not have Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase. And while closers Kenley Jensen, Felix Bautista, and Carlos Estevez are all good, I worry about Baltimore rookie Yennier Cano. After an outstanding start to the season, the Orioles’ rookie has allowed runs in three of his last five appearances while posting a 5.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in those 4 2/3 innings and averaging less than a strikeout per inning.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t put much weight in the American League’s recent dominance in this game — but the NL is probably fed up with their recent losing streak. 10* MLB All-Star Game Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the National League (948) versus the American League (947). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-23 |
Cardinals v. White Sox -123 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-123 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (928) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (927) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: Chicago (38-53) has lost four of their last five games after their 3-0 loss at home to the Cardinals on Saturday. St. Louis (37-52) has won two of their last three games with their victory yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Cardinals have lost 4 games in a row after winning their last game. They have also lost 7 of their last 8 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. They going into the All-Star Break having lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. Matz gets the start despite an 0-7 record with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.60 WhIP in 18 games which include ten starts. He has been more effective at home where he has a 3.38 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in 37 1/3 innings — but in his 29 innings on the road, he has been saddled with a 7.14 ERA, a 1.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .358. Chicago has won 12 of their last 17 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 8 games at home against teams with a losing record. They counter with Giolito who has a 6-5 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 4.71 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in nine starts — but in his nine starts at home, he has a 2.43 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .197.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have defeated the Cardinals in 4 of their last 5 games against them — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against St. Louis at Guaranteed Rate Field. 8* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (928) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (927) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-23 |
Reds v. Brewers OVER 9 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-113 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Wade Miley. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (50-40) has won six of their last seven games after their 8-5 win on the road against the Brewers yesterday. Milwaukee (48-42) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played a decisive 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. And in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record, they have played 9 of these games Over the Total. Lively gets the start coming off the injured list — he has a 4-4 record with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in nine appearances (seven starts). He has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.86 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 — but in his four games on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.43 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .298. He faces a Brewers lineup that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .276 batting average, a .366 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .814. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Miley who has a 5-2 record with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.05 and 4.95 moving forward. He has been less effective at home where he has a 3.94 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .268 in six starts as opposed to his 2.73 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .202 in six starts on the road. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games at home against teams with a winning record. He faces a Reds team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .849 OPS in those games. They are also scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .281 batting average, a .354 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .808 in those contests. Cincinnati has played 14 of their last 20g games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds have seen ten or more combined runs scored in four of their last five games as well as seven of their last ten contests. The Brewers have seen ten or more runs scored in five of their last six games as well as seven of their last nine contests. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between Cincinnati Reds (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-23 |
Mets v. Padres -154 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (960) versus the New York Mets (959) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and David Peterson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (41-47) was on a three-game winning streak before losing at home to the Mets by a 7-5 score. New York (42-46) has won six games in a row after taking the opening game of this three-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego has still won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Snell gets the start looking to continue to improve on his 5-7 record along with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 17 starts. In his last six starts since the beginning of June, the left-hander has a 4-1 record with a 0.75 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. The Padres have won 7 of their last 10 games in July with Snell on the mound. He faces a Mets team that ranks 25th and 26th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. New York has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have lost 5 of their last 7 games after winning six or more games in a row. They have also lost 13 of their last 19 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have lost 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Peterson who has a 2-6 record with a 6.61 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 10 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home — induing in his last two starts after a stint in the minor leagues where he has a 3.05 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in four starts. But in his six starts on the road, Peterson has a 9.21 ERA, a 1.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .350. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road with Peterson on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres have won 10 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. 8* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (960) versus the New York Mets (959) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and David Peterson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-23 |
Mariners v. Astros -111 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (970) versus the Seattle Mariners (969) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Bryan Woo. THE SITUATION: Houston (49-40) has lost two games in a row after their 10-1 loss at home to the Mariners. Seattle (44-43) has won six of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mariners have lost 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also lost 14 of their last 23 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Seattle has still lost 15 of their last 23 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record. Woo gets the start looking to build off his 1-1 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in six starts. But while the rookie right-hander has a 2.53 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a .220 opponent’s batting average in two starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.00 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in four starts on the road. The Mariners have still lost 15 of their last 24 games when attempting to upset their opponent when priced as a money-line underdog up to a +150 price range. Woo faces an Astros team that has still won 5 of their last 3 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston has won 58 of their last 87 games after losing their last game — and they have won 25 of their last 33 games after a loss by four or more runs. They have also won 47 of their last 71 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Houston has still won seven of their last ten games despite the injuries to Yordan Alvarez and now Jose Altuve — and they have won 16 of their last 25 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They counter with Valdez who has a 7-6 record with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 16 starts. The left-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.05 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in ten starts as opposed to his 3.23 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in six starts on the road. Houston has won 11 of their last 17 home games with Valdez their starting pitcher priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Houston has won 34 of their last 51 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. And in their last 53 opportunities to host the Mariners, the Astros have won 37 of those games.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has lost 22 of their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 8* MLB Seattle-Houston Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (970) versus the Seattle Mariners (969) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Bryan Woo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-23 |
Braves -148 v. Rays |
|
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (977) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (978) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Taj Bradley. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (59-28) won for the 11th time in their last 12 games with a 2-1 victory on the road against the Rays yesterday. Tampa Bay (57-34) has lost six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta is staking their claim as the best team in baseball with 19 wins in their last 21 games — and they have won 26 of their last 30 contests. They have won 41 of their last 56 games after winning their last game. The Braves have also won 11 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games in Interleague play. Strider gets the start looking to build on his 10-2 record with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he is underachieving given his SIERA and xFIP which project an ERA of 2.73 and 2.86 moving forward. And while he has a 3.93 ERA in his nine starts on the road, that mark improves to a 3.35 ERA in his eight starts on the road. The Braves have won 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have won 17 of their last 21 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Tampa Bay is mired in a slump right now — and they have lost 5 of their last 7games after losing five or more games in a row. They are scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .218 Batting Average and a .673 OPS during that span — and they have not scored more than one run in three of their last four games. They have lost 5 games in a row against right-handed starting pitchers. They counter with Bradley who has a 5-4 record with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 12 starts. But the rookie has hit a wall as he has given up 11 earned runs in his last two starts lasting only 7 1/3 innings. When the 22-year-old is not generating strikeouts, he is simply getting hit too hard. In his last start against Seattle on Sunday, he allowed 16 balls into play — and they averaged an exit velocity of 94.4 MPH off the bat. That exit velocity rate matches what Matt Olsen is generating this season — and he ranks sixth in MLB in batted ball average velocity rate. In his last two starts, Bradley has a 13.56 ERA and a 2.60 WHIP. He has given up 17 hits in those 7 1/3 innings including five home runs — and the strikeouts have dropped with only five punchouts in these two starts.
FINAL TAKE: Bradley faces the best lineup in baseball that ranks first and third in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank second in both those categories since June 1st. The Braves are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .287 Batting Average and a .926 OPS. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (977) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (978) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Taj Bradley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-23 |
Rockies v. Giants -155 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-155 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (910) versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Ross Stripling and Austin Gomber. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (47-40) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 2-0 win against Seattle on Wednesday. Colorado (33-55) has lost four games in a row after a 6-4 loss at Houston on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 18 of their last 25 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Giants are taking care of business against divisional rivals as they have won 11 of their last 13 games against teams from the NL West. Stripling gets the ball looking to improve on his 0-2 record along with a 6.51 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.23 and 4.00 moving forward. He faces a Rockies team that has lost 47 of their last 63 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 45 of their last 66 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 47 of their last 65 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Gomber who has a 6-7 record with a 6.64 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in his 17 starts this season. In his last three starts on the road, the left-hander has a 5.79 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 14 innings. He had a 5.98 ERA in his 53 innings on the road last season — and the Rockies have lost 12 of their last 16 road games with Gomber on the hill and priced at +150 or higher. Colorado has lost 42 of their last 54 road games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockies have lost 40 of their last 56 games against NL West opponents — and the Giants have won 11 of their last 13 games against teams from the NL West. 8* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (910) versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Ross Stripling and Austin Gomber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-23 |
Reds v. Brewers OVER 7.5 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Abbott and Corbin Burnes. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (49-39) has won five games in a row after their 5-4 win at Washington in ten innings yesterday. Milwaukee (47-41) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 6-5 win against the Chicago Cubs yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 35 of their last 52 games Over the Total after winning their previous game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati gives the ball to Abbott who has a 4-0 record with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in five starts. The left-hander is due for some major regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 4.27 moving forward. Now the rookie faces a Brewers team that ranks fourth and fifth in MLB since June in weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They counter with Burnes who has a 6-5 record with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts this year. The sabermetrics call for even more regression despite him already underachieving versus his 2.94 ERA and 0.97 WHIP last season. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.29 and 4.14 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either — he has a 4.27 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in eight starts at home as compared to his 3.76 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in nine starts on the road. Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Burnes their starting pitcher when priced up to -150.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank fifth in MLB since May in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Abbott and Corbin Burnes. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-23 |
Mariners v. Astros -103 |
|
10-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the Seattle Mariners (917) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Castillo. THE SITUATION: Houston (49-39) had their four-game winning streak snapped last night in a 5-1 loss at home to the Mariners. Seattle (43-43) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mariners have lost 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. They have also lost 14 of their last 22 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Seattle has still lost 15 of their last 22 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 20 road games against teams with a winning record. Castillo gets the start looking to build off his 5-6 record along with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.60 and 3.68 moving forward. His best work has been at home at T-Mobile Park where he has a 2.44 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of 1.07 in 11 starts — but in his six starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 4.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250. His teams have lost 26 of his last 37 starts on the road including all six of his road starts this season for Seattle. He faces an Astros team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston ranks 12th and 11th in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Astros have won 58 of their last 86 games after losing their last game — and they have won 25 of their last 32 games after a loss by four or more runs. They have also won 47 of their last 70 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Houston has still won seven of their last nine games despite the injuries to Yordan Alvarez and now Jose Altuve — and they have won 16 of their last 24 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They counter with Brown who has a 6-5 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 16 starts this season. The sabermetrics prefer the 25-year-old to Castillo with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.44 and 3.06 moving forward. The Astros have won 6 of their last 9 games with Brown on the mound looking to end a losing streak. Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 34 of their last 50 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. They have also beaten 42 of their last 61 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 52 opportunities to host the Mariners, the Astros have won 37 of those games.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle ranks 21st in MLB since June 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 13 of their last 19 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the Seattle Mariners (917) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Castillo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-23 |
Orioles v. Yankees +1.5 |
Top |
14-1 |
Loss |
-145 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Kyle Bradish. THE SITUATION: New York (48-39) won the first two games of this series before their 6-3 loss at home to the Orioles yesterday. Baltimore (50-35) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: New York had a 2-0 lead going into the sixth inning yesterday — but Nick Ramirez and Michael King gave up four runs in that inning to give Baltimore a lead that they would not relinquish. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 9 games after a blown save in their last game. They have also won 4 games in a row after losing their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after getting upset by an AL East rival in their last game. After struggling last month after losing Aaron Judge to his toe injury, the Bronx Bombers are playing better as of late. They have won five of their last seven games — and they are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game during that stretch with an OPS of .809. New York has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Yankees won 8 of their last 13 games at home as an underdog including five of their eight home games as a money-line dog this season. Severino gets the start looking to bounce back from allowing seven earned runs in four innings in St. Louis against the Cardinals on Saturday. He has a 1-3 record this season with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in eight starts. Most of the damage has taken place on the road where the right-hander has a 9.27 ERA, a 2.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .360 in five starts. But in his three starts at home, Severino has a 2.55 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182. In his career at Yankee Stadium, he is very comfortable sporting a 3.41 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in 335 innings. His previous start was at home against the explosive Texas Rangers and he pitched six scoreless innings against them. New York has won 10 of their last 13 games at home with Severino their starting pitcher. Now he faces a slumping Orioles team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .218 Batting Average, a .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .624 in those games. Baltimore has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost six of seven games before their win last night. But they have lost 44 of their last 59 games after upsetting a division rival in their last game including seven of their 11 contests under those circumstances this season. They counter with Bradish who has a 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.00 and 3.83 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.81 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts — but in his eight starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.46 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in eight starts. The Orioles have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road. They have also lost 12 of their 18 games against AL East rivals with Bradish on the hill. Baltimore has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Yankees have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Orioles have been upset in their last 4 games when priced as the money-line favorite. The Yankees have covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their last 24 games as a money-line underdog with 14 upset wins and another 4 losses by just one run. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line of the Month with the New York Yankees (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Kyle Bradish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-23 |
Cardinals v. Marlins -115 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Eury Perez and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Miami (51-37) has won three games in a row after their 10-9 victory at home against the Cardinals on Wednesday. St. Louis (35-51) has lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami has won eight of their last 111 games — and they have won 16 of their last 21 games after winning their last game. They have also won 4 straight games after scoring five or more runs — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Perez gets the start looking to redeem himself from a disastrous appearance in Atlanta when he gave up six runs in the first inning while oily registering one out before getting pulled. Even after that performance, the right-hander has a 5-2 record with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts. Pitching a Truist Park against the red-hot Braves is as tough an assignment as there is right now — but back at home, Perez has a 1.01 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .186 in five starts. He should pitch much better against this Cardinals team that has lost 9 of their last 13 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. St. Louis has lost six of their last eight games — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games after a loss. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. Flaherty gets the start tonight looking to build on his 5-5 record along with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander comes off six scoreless innings of work in his last start at home against the New York Yankees on Saturday — but even with that nice effort, he still has been saddled with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in his last 16 starts. The 27-year-old started the season strong by only allowing three runs in his first three starts, but it has been mostly downhill since. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Miami ranks eighth and seventh in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers since May 1st — and they rank fifth and sixth in those categories since the beginning of June. The Marlins have won 15 of their last 18 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 12 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 8* MLB St. Louis-Miami FS1-TV Special with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Eury Perez and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-23 |
Mariners v. Giants -165 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (930) versus the Seattle Mariners (929) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tommy Milone. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (46-40) has lost four games in a row after their 6-0 loss at home to the Mariners yesterday. Seattle (42-42) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 17 of their last 24 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. They have also won 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Cobb gets the start tonight looking to build on his 5-2 record along with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.43 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in six starts at home at Oracle Park as opposed to his 4.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .298 in nine starts on the road. San Francisco has won 7 of their last 9 home games with Cobb pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He should pitch well against this Mariners team that has lost 12 of their last 17 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has lost 7 of their last 9 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. They have also lost 14 of their last 20 games on the road. They counter with Milone who has only pitched 4 1/3 innings for the club back in April before getting called to make this spot start. In his 50 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season, the left-hander has a 4.47 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP — and his xFIP projects that ERA to rise to 6.19 given his peripheral numbers. He had a 5.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his 16 2/3 innings for the Mariners last season — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 6.32 and 6.53 respectively. He faces a Giants team that has won 6 of their last 8 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has won 4 of their last 5 games when avenging two straight upset losses to their opponent as a home favorite. 8* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (930) versus the Seattle Mariners (929) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tommy Milone. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-23 |
Royals v. Twins -1.5 |
|
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (930) versus the Seattle Mariners (929) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tommy Milone. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (46-40) has lost four games in a row after their 6-0 loss at home to the Mariners yesterday. Seattle (42-42) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 17 of their last 24 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. They have also won 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Cobb gets the start tonight looking to build on his 5-2 record along with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.43 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in six starts at home at Oracle Park as opposed to his 4.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .298 in nine starts on the road. San Francisco has won 7 of their last 9 home games with Cobb pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He should pitch well against this Mariners team that has lost 12 of their last 17 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has lost 7 of their last 9 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. They have also lost 14 of their last 20 games on the road. They counter with Milone who has only pitched 4 1/3 innings for the club back in April before getting called to make this spot start. In his 50 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season, the left-hander has a 4.47 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP — and his xFIP projects that ERA to rise to 6.19 given his peripheral numbers. He had a 5.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his 16 2/3 innings for the Mariners last season — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 6.32 and 6.53 respectively. He faces a Giants team that has won 6 of their last 8 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has won 4 of their last 5 games when avenging two straight upset losses to their opponent as a home favorite. 8* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (930) versus the Seattle Mariners (929) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tommy Milone. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-23 |
Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
|
9-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Luis Ortiz and Emmet Sheehan. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (39-45) has lost three games in a row after their 5-2 loss on the road against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (47-37) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 15-5-1 in the Dodgers' last 21 games after a win in their last game — and the Over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. The Over is also 6-2-1 in Los Angeles’ last 9 games at home. They give the ball to Sheehan to make his fourth start of the season since being called up from Double-A last month. He has a 2-0 record with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in his first three starts — but the deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.84 and 5.02 moving forward. He faces a Pirates team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh has only scored five combined runs in their last two games — but they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. They counter with Ortiz who has a 2-3 record with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in ten games (nine starts). The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.51 and 5.25 respectively. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks seventh and fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 8* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Luis Ortiz and Emmet Sheehan. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-23 |
Blue Jays v. White Sox +1.5 |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (970) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (969) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt. THE SITUATION: Chicago (37-49) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 8-7 victory at Oakland on Sunday. Toronto (45-40) has lost three games in a row after their 5-4 loss to Boson on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago has been an about .500 team after their dismal 7-20 start to the season in April. They have won 5 of their last 7 games after an off-day. They return home where they have won 10 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Giolito gets the start looking to build on his 6-5 record along with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he enjoys a 2.36 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.71 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in nine starts on the road. He comes off his best month of the season by posting a 2.32 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in five starts. Toronto has lost 26 of their last 42 games after a loss by one run. They have also lost 14 of their last 20 games after losing two or more in a row to a divisional rival. The Blue Jays were the money-line favorites in all three of their home games against the Red Sox over the weekend — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games after getting upset at home by an AL East rival. They have also lost 9 of their last 11 games after getting upset at home in two straight games to a divisional rival. They counter with Bassitt who has an 8-5 record with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.34 and 4.49 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.41 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .148 in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.89 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .294 in nine starts on the road. Toronto has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They have also lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. He faces a hot-hitting White Sox team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .278 Batting Average, a .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .795 during that span. Chicago has won 10 of their last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while the Blue Jays swept their three-game series in the last meeting between these teams in April, the White Sox have won 16 of their last 26 games when playing with at least double revenge.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking advantage of in this situation — but with the price of that option within my -150 price range in many spots, that is my preferred approach. Chicago has covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their last 14 games when priced as a straight-up underdog with upset victories in 7 times and 3 of their seven losses were by just by one run. Toronto has failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 14 of their last 19 games when priced as a straight-up money-line favorite with 10 upset losses and 4 of their nine wins by just one run. 10* MLB Run Line Rout with the Chicago White Sox (970) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (969) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-23 |
Rockies v. Astros -179 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (974) versus the Colorado Rockies (973) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Bielak and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: Houston (47-38) has won two games in a row and five of their last six contests with their 12-11 win at Texas yesterday. Colorado (33-53) has lost two straight games — and 19 of their last 26 contests — after a 14-9 loss at home to Detroit on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 26 of their last 38 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. And while their comeback win yesterday came after a 5-3 win against the Rangers on Sunday, they have then won 19 of their last 24 games after winning two in a row by two runs or less. The Astros return home where they have won 13 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Bielak gets the start looking to build off his 3-4 record along with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in nine appearances (eight starts). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.72 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in 19 1/3 innings. He faces a Rockies team that has lost 45 of their 61 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 43 of their last 64 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 games after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. They counter with Freeland who has a 4-8 record with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander comes off a rough month where he had a 6.49 ERA, a 1.67 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in five starts. Freeland has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.13 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .272 in ten starts — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 5.92 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .295. The Rockets have lost 40 of their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record. He faces an Astros team that has won 4 games in a row against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has lost 19 of their last 26 games against the Astros — and they have lost 37 of their last 50 games against them in Houston’s Minute Maid Park. 8* MLB Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (974) versus the Colorado Rockies (973) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Bielak and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-23 |
Phillies v. Rays -140 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-140 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (976) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (975) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (57-30) has lost two games in a row after their 7-6 loss at Seattle on Sunday. Philadelphia (44-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-4 loss at home to Washington on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay should rebound this afternoon as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game — and they have won 21 of their last 29 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They stay at home where they have won 52 of their last 70 games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record. Eflin gets the start looking to continue his breakout season with his 9-3 record along with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his good pitching as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.35 and 3.16 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he enjoys a 2.17 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in eight starts. Tampa Bay has won 27 of their last 34 games at home with Eflin on the hill with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Philadelphia has lost 32 of their last 55 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also lost 26 of their last 42 games on the road after losing two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have lost 15 of their last 21 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 42 of their last 62 road games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Nola who has a 7-5 record with a 4.51 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.40 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 — but in his ten starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 5.34 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245. He has a 4.91 ERA in his nine starts in the daytime.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay ranks fourth and second in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank fifth and third in those metrics since June 1st. The Rays have won 7 in a row against the Phillies — and they have won 5 straight games against Philadelphia when hosting them at Tropicana Field. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (976) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (975) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-23 |
Mariners v. Giants -128 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-128 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (920) versus the Seattle Mariners (919) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Bryan Woo. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (46-38) has lost four of their last five games after their 8-4 win in New York against the Mets on Sunday. Seattle (40-42) has lost two games in a row after their 7-6 win against Tampa Bay yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco struggled during their six-game road trip — but they still have a 35-22 record since the beginning of May. The Giants have won 9 of their last 12 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They return home where they have won 6 of their last 8 games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record. Manager Gabe Kapler gives the ball to his ace tonight in Webb who has a 7-7 record with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 17 starts. The underlying sabermetrics are very encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.24 and 3.07 moving forward. The right-hander has been even more effective at home at Oracle Park where he enjoys a 2.31 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in seven starts. San Francisco has won 25 of their last 32 games at home when priced at -110 or higher. Webb should pitch well against this Mariners team that ranks 24th and 23rd in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has lost 22 of their last 29 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They had lost five games in a row before their recent two-game winning streak — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games after a victory. Additionally, the Mariners have lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Woo who has a 1-1 record with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he has a 2.53 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in two starts — but the rookie has a 6.00 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in three starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has won 12 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (920) versus the Seattle Mariners (919) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Bryan Woo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-23 |
Angels v. Padres -185 |
|
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (918) versus the Los Angeles Angels (917) listing both starting pitchers Jaime Barria and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: San Diego (38-46) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 4-3 loss at Cincinnati yesterday. Los Angeles (45-41) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 5-2 win against Arizona on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Angels have lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 4 straight games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also lost 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Barria gets the start tonight as the sixth man in the Angels’ six-man starting rotation. He has a 2-3 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 17 appearances this season including five starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and 4.57 moving forward. His best work has been in day games when he has a 0.90 ERA in 10 innings — but in his 39 1/3 innings at night, his ERA rises to a 3.43 clip. San Diego returns home after a six-game road trip where they have won 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Padres counter with Snell who has a 4-7 record with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander once again needed the first month or so to get into a groove — and he enjoys a 0.86 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in his last seven starts. He has been more effective at home at Petco Park this season where he has a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in seven starts as opposed to his 1.27 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels have lost 5 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (918) versus the Los Angeles Angels (917) listing both starting pitchers Jaime Barria and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-23 |
Giants +126 v. Mets |
|
4-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (959) versus the New York Mets (960) listing both starting pitchers Ross Stripling and David Peterson. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (46-37) has lost three of their last four games after their 4-1 loss in New York to the Mets yesterday. New York (37-46) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco should bounce back tonight as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Giants have also won 16 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have won 60 of their last 89 road games against teams with a losing record. Stripling gets the start looking to improve his 0-2 record along with a 6.88 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 10 appearances including five starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.21 and 4.01 moving forward. He faces a Mets team that has lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 4 straight games after a win — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Mets have also lost 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have lost 30 of their last 42 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Peterson who has a 2-6 record with a 7.00 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in nine starts this season. He faces a Giants team that leads MLB in weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st. San Francisco has also won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have won 8 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they did not score more than one run. 8* MLB Giants-Mets ESPN Special with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (959) versus the New York Mets (960) listing both starting pitchers Ross Stripling and David Peterson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-23 |
Diamondbacks +106 v. Angels |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
106 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (929) versus the Los Angeles Angels (930) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Tyler Anderson. THE SITUATION: Arizona (49-34) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 6-2 win against the Angels last night. Los Angeles (44-40) has lost three games in a row and seven of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona should build off their momentum from taking the opening game of this series as they have won 16 of their last 23 games after winning their previous game. The Diamondbacks have also won 15 of their last 21 games after scoring five or more runs in their last contest — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have won 11 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They give the ball to Nelson who has a 4-4 record with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander can struggle at the hitter-friendly Chase Field where he has a 7.09 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in eight starts — but in his eight starts on the road this season, Nelson has a 3.07 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228. He faces an Angels team that ranks 20th and 22nd in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have lost 4 home games in a row against teams with a winning record. They counter with Anderson who has a 4-2 record with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in five starts as opposed to his 5.36 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in nine starts on the road. His teams have lost 10 of their last 14 games at home when he is the starting pitcher with the Total set from 10-10.5.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks have won 11 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (929) versus the Los Angeles Angels (930) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Tyler Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-23 |
Guardians v. Cubs -122 |
|
6-0 |
Loss |
-122 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (924) versus the Cleveland Guardians (923) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Tanner Bibee. THE SITUATION: Chicago (38-42) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 10-1 victory in the opening game of this Interleague series last night. Cleveland (39-42) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago probably deserves to have a better record than being four games under .500 at this point of the season. They rank ninth in MLB with a run differential of +32. They had won nine of 11 games before dropping the final game in London against St. Louis and then getting swept at home to Philadelphia. The Cubs have won 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last game. At home, they rank sixth in MLB with a run differential of +23 even after losing those three games to the Phillies earlier this week. Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games at home in Interleague play — and they have won 14 of their last 21 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Cubs have also won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Stroman gets the ball looking to build on his 9-5 record with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been particularly effective at home where he has a 2.25 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in eight starts as opposed to his 2.70 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in nine starts on the road. Chicago has won 6 of their last 9 games at night with Stroman making the start. He should pitch well against this Guardians team that scores only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .238 Batting Average, a .298 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .646. Cleveland has lost 14 of their last 20 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They rank 24th and 23rd in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Guardians have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after allowing eight or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 5 straight games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. Cleveland has lost five times this season where they allowed 10 or more runs in an ongoing series — and they have lost all 4 of their previous games this year when attempting to exact revenge against an opponent who scored 10 or more runs against them in their last game. While the Guardians have one more win than the Cubs this year, they rank just 20th in MLB with a -16 run differential. On the road, Cleveland has lost 15 of their last 20 games against teams with a losing record — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 road games in Interleague play. They have also lost 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Bibee who has a 4-2 record with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.34 and 4.49 moving forward. And while the right-hander enjoys a 2.38 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in six starts, those numbers rise to a 5.68 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .308 in five starts on the road. The Guardians have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Bibee on the hill as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs rank sixth in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. In their last seven games, Chicago is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game with a .267 Batting Average and an OPS of .453. The Cubs have won 8 of their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Guardians-Cubs Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (924) versus the Cleveland Guardians (923) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Tanner Bibee. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-23 |
Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-113 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the Texas Rangers (966) listing both starting pitchers Ronel Blanco and Jon Gray. THE SITUATION: Houston (44-37) has won three of their last four games after a 14-0 win at St. Louis yesterday. Texas (49-32) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 8-5 loss to Detroit yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They are scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total. Blanco gets the start tonight as he looks to build on his 1-0 record with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 35 innings this season. While he has a 3.79 ERA in 19 innings at home, his ERA rises to 5.63 in his 16 innings on the road. He has a very tough challenge pitching against this Rangers team that leads MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers this season (and also since May 1st). The Over is 11-5-2 in Texas’ last 18 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 5-2-2 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and the Over is 5-2-3 in their last 10 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Texas has played 12 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, the Over is 16-5-5 in their last 26 games at home. They counter with Gray who has a 6-3 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 14 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.39 respectively moving forward. And while Gray has a 1.99 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .180 in seven starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.79 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in his seven starts at home. Texas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Gray pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros rank ninth in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the Texas Rangers (966) listing both starting pitchers Ronel Blanco and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-23 |
Red Sox v. Blue Jays -135 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (964) versus the Boston Red Sox (964) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Toronto (45-37) has won two in a row — and six of their last eight contests — after their 2-1 victory against San Francisco yesterday. Boston (40-42) has lost five games in a row after their 2-0 loss to Miami on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto is playing better baseball as of late as they are finally beginning to meet their huge preseason expectations. The Blue Jays have won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 55 of their last 76 games at home at the Rogers Centre against teams with a losing record. Berrios gets the start looking to build on his 8-5 record along with a 1.22 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander struggled last season with a 5.23 ERA even though the deeper sabermetrics indicated he should have been giving up more than a run fewer per start. He started slowly this season by giving up 14 runs in his first two starts — but in his 14 starts since, he boasts a 2.74 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across 85 1/3 innings. He has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in six starts as opposed to his 4.30 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in ten starts on the road including those opening two clunkers back in April. Toronto has won 17 of their last 19 games at home with Berrios on the mound and is priced as a -110 or higher favorite. He should pitch well against this Red Sox team that ranks 28th in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox managed only four hits against the Marlins yesterday — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after failing to generate more than four base hits in their last game. Boston has lost 39 of their last 52 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. They have only scored four combined runs in their last four games while not topping two runs in any of these games — and they have then lost 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They have also lost 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Paxton who has a 3-1 record with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in eight starts. But while the left-hander has done his best work at home this season with a 1.69 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in three starts at Fenway Park, those numbers rise to a 4.10 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in eight starts on the road. The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 37 of their last 53 road games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 20 of their last 26 road games with the Total in the 9-10.5 range. Boston has also lost 20 of their last 28 games against the Blue Jays — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against them in Toronto. The Blue Jays rank eighth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers. In their last seven games, Toronto is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average and a .796 slugging percentage.
FINAL TAKE: The Blue Jays have lost their last four games against the Red Sox after an 11-5 loss in Fenway on May 24th. Toronto has won 10 of their last 15 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have won 5 straight games when avenging a loss where they allowed ten or more runs. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (964) versus the Boston Red Sox (964) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-23 |
Brewers v. Mets -181 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-181 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (904) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (903) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Adrian Houser. THE SITUATION: New York (36-44) has lost three of their last four games after their 5-2 loss to the Brewers in the third game of this series. Milwaukee (42-38) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONEY-LINE ON THE METS: The Brewers have lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning their previous game. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Houser gets the start looking to build on his 2-2 record along with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP as he returns to the starting rotation after making his last two appearances out of the bullpen for Milwaukee. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.85 and 4.62 moving forward. New York counters with Scherzer who has a 7-2 record with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.95 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in four starts as opposed to his 4.38 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in nine starts on the road. The Mets have won 8 of their last 11 games with Scherzer their starting pitcher while being priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: New York has won 8 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss as a home favorite. 8* MLB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (904) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (903) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Adrian Houser. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-23 |
Tigers v. Rangers OVER 9 |
|
2-10 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (959) and the Texas Rangers (960) listing both starting pitchers Joey Wentz and Dane Dunning. THE SITUATION: Detroit (34-44) has lost two of their last three games after their 8-3 loss on the road to the Rangers yesterday. Texas (48-31) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 16 of their last 23 games at home Over the Total after a win in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after a win by four or more runs. The Over is also 14-5-5 in their last 24 games at home — and the Over is 17-6-4 in their last 27 home games against teams with a losing record. Dunning gets the start looking to build off his 6-1 record along with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 17 appearances this season. The deeper sabermetrics are screaming for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.93 and 4.78 moving forward. The Over is 6-1-1 in Detroit’s last 8 games after losing their last game — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. They counter with Wentz who has a 1-8 record with a 6.72 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in 15 appearances this season. The left-hander has been even worse when pitching on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.48 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in six starts. He faces a Rangers team that ranks third and second in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 13-6-3 in Texas’s last 22 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 32-14-6 in the last 52 games between these two clubs. 8* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (959) and the Texas Rangers (960) listing both starting pitchers Joey Wentz and Dane Dunning. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-23 |
Reds v. Orioles OVER 9.5 |
Top |
11-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (42-38) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 3-1 victory in the second game of their series with the Orioles. Baltimore (48-30) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Cincinnati has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Weaver who has a 1-2 record with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where he has a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .323 in six starts as opposed to his 1.47 WHIP and a .295 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. He has been crushed this month with a 10.80 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .368 in his four starts in June. He faces an Orioles team that ranks sixth and fifth respectively in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank third in both those metrics since the beginning of June. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Orioles have played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gibson who has an 8-5 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.74 and 4.48 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in nine starts on the road. And in his four starts this month, Gibson has a 5.75 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank sixth in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-23 |
White Sox v. Angels -160 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (914) versus the Chicago White Sox (913) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Michael Kopech. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-37) has won two of their last three games after a 2-1 victory at home against the White Sox last night. Chicago (34-46) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles had won 11 of 14 games before enduring a three-game losing streak last week. They have now won 21 of their last 28 games at home against teams with a losing record — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. Ohtani gets the ball looking to build on his 6-3 record along with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 15 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.47 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .163 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.03 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in seven starts on the road. He should pitch well against this White Sox team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 6 of their last 7 games after losing their previous game. The White Sox have also lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They counter with Kopeck who has a 3-6 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.37 and 4.74 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in nine starts at home, those numbers rise to a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in six starts on the road. Chicago has lost 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. He faces an Angels team that has won 11 of their last 14 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have lost 22 of their last 30 games against the Angels — and they have lost 25 of their last 31 games against them when playing in Los Angeles. 8* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (914) versus the Chicago White Sox (913) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Michael Kopech. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-23 |
Twins v. Braves -144 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (924) versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Joe Ryan. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-27) has won three games in a row — and 11 in their last 12 contests — after their 4-1 win at home against the Twins in the opening game of this series. Minnesota (40-40) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta is flexing their muscles as perhaps the best team in baseball while being led by Ronald Acuna who is on his way to his first MVP season. They should continue to build off their momentum tonight as they have won 35 of their 50 games this season after winning their previous game — and they have won 38 of their last 54 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. They have also won 21 of their last 29 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Braves have won 37 of their last 52 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games in Interleague play. Atlanta has also won 42 of their last 62 home games against teams with a winning record. Elder gets the start looking to build on his 5-1 record with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts. The 24-year-old may not have the elite stuff that leads to ERA crowns — but his sinker is nasty that is generating ground balls in 57.1% of the batted balls he is allowing into play so he should continue to be a high-end starter for the Braves. In his eight starts at night, he has a 2.16 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Atlanta has won 9 of their last 13 home games with Elder on the mound and is priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Twins team that ranks 26th in MLB on the road against right-handed starting pitchers in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since May 1st. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 36 of their last 52 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Twins are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .218 Batting Average, a .288 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have lost 10 of their last 15 games after scoring no more than one run in their last game. They have not allowed more than four runs in six straight games — but Minnesota has lost 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games and they have lost 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games. They have lost 37 of their last 53 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games in Interleague play. They counter with Ryan who has an 8-4 record with a 2.98 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 15 starts. The 27-year-old right-hander is enjoying a breakout season and comes off a complete game shutout at home against Boston last Thursday — but Minnesota has lost 4 of their 6 games this season when Ryan is following up a start where he did not allow more than an earned run. The deeper sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.45 and 3.69 moving forward — and he does have a 3.45 ERA in his four starts this month so the Regression Gods seem to be making their impression known. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.70 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in seven starts — but he has been more hittable on the road where those numbers rise to a 3.26 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in eighth starts. The Twins have lost 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog priced up to +150. Minnesota has lost 10 of their last 13 games against the Braves.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta may have the best lineup in MLB — and they are scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .308 Batting Average, a .381 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .967. They have won 19 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 38 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Braves lead MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (924) versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Joe Ryan. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-23 |
Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 |
Top |
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Seattle (37-39) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss in Baltimore to the Orioles yesterday. Washington (30-47) has won two straight games after their 8-3 win at San Diego on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle should bounce back tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. They return home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Castillo gets the start looking to build on his 4-6 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been at his best at home where he owns a 2.03 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .169 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in six starts on the road. After experiencing a drop in the velocity of his fastball at the beginning of the season, he is now averaging 97 miles per hour with his four-seamer while topping out at 99 MPH at times which is right in line with his velocity at his peak last season. In his last six starts, Castillo has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in those 35 2/3 innings. Now he gets a tasty matchup against a Nationals team that ranks 27th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this month. They have lost 43 of their last 62 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Despite their two-game winning streak, Washington has still lost 15 of their last 20 games — and they have lost 37 of their last 52 games after a win. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row. They stay on the road where they have lost 8 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Williams counters for the Nationals with his 4-4 record with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.81 and 4.84 moving forward. In his four starts this month, he has a 4.71 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 which is right in line with those analytics. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .347 — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .291. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Williams on the mound with the Total set from 7-8.5. He faces a Mariners team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has won 40 of their last 55 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. While these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, the Mariners have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their 13 victories this season when priced above -150. Washington has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their 22 losses when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. Let’s lower the investment price by taking advantage of the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Month with the Seattle Mariners (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-23 |
White Sox v. Angels -127 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (956) versus the Chicago White Sox (955) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Dylan Cease. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (42-37) has lost four of their last five games after their 4-3 loss at Colorado yesterday. Chicago (34-45) has won two games in a row after their 4-1 win against Boston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles had won 11 of 14 games before their recent slide — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. They retune home where they have won 20 of their last 27 games at home against teams with a losing record — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Detmers gets the ball looking to build on his 1-5 record along with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish on the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.81 and 3.80 respectively moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.79 ERA in seven starts as opposed to his 4.31 ERA in six starts on the road. He should pitch well against this White Sox team that has lost 6 games in a row against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Chicago has lost 5 of their last 6 games after losing their previous game. The White Sox have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 11 of their last 14 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They counter with Cease who has a 3-3 record with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 16 starts. But while the right-hander has a 3.62 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in nine starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.50 ERA and a .236 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Chicago has lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. He faces an Angels team that has won 10 of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have lost 21 of their last 29 games against the Angels — and they have lost 24 of their last 30 games against them when playing in Los Angeles. 8* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (956) versus the Chicago White Sox (955) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Dylan Cease. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-23 |
Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Tony Gonsolin. THE SITUATION: Houston (41-36) has lost two games in a row and seven of their last nine contests after their 8-7 loss on the road to the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (43-33) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. Brown gets the start looking to build on his 3.78 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts. The rookie right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.46 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.12 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in seven starts at home. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Brown their starting pitcher with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Los Angeles has played 43 of their last 68 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Dodgers have also played 30 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a win by two runs or less. Gonsolin gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 4-2 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has been consistently outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .123 in his career 32 games (31 starts) in his career spanning 163 innings. Los Angeles has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with Gonsolin on the mound and favored up to the price of -150.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings between these two teams. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-23 |
Astros v. Dodgers -120 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Houston Astros (929) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Hunter Brown. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-33) has won four games in a row after their 8-7 victory at home against the Astros yesterday. Houston (41-36) has lost two games in a row and seven of their last nine contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is beginning to heat up — and they tend to keep building off their momentum when they start to get rolling like this when playing at home. The Dodgers have won 51 of their last 64 games at home after winning three or more games in a row — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games at home after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also won 49 of their last 70 games at home against teams with a winning record. This season, Los Angeles has won 15 of their last 19 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Gonsolin gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 4-2 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has been consistently outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .123 in his career 32 games (31 starts) in his career spanning 163 innings. The Dodgers have won 25 of those 31 career Gonsolin starts at Chavez Ravine. He should pitch well against this Astros team that has a .237 Batting Average with a .299 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .675 against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston ranks just 14th and 13th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank just 20th and 19th in those metrics since the beginning of June. The Astros have lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Houston has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by just one run. They have also lost 7 of their last 11 games when attempting to avenge a loss by one run. The Astros have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have lost 5 in a row on the road against teams with a winning record. They have lost 6 in a row overall to teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games in Interleague play. The counter with Brown who has a 6-4 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts. The 25-year-old right-hander started the season strong with a 2.37 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP in his five starts in April. But since the beginning of May, the rookie has struggled with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in his last nine starts. Brown is only inducing swinging strikes 10.7% of the time which is below the MLB average. The league seems to have caught up with his pitches after his great start.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers rank 5th and 3rd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 5th in both categories since the beginning of May. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Houston Astros (929) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Hunter Brown. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-23 |
Mets v. Phillies -163 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Carlos Carrasco. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (39-37) has lost three of their last four games after their 4-2 loss at home to the Mets yesterday. New York (35-41) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia should bounce back this afternoon as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games at home even after Saturday’s setback. The Phillies have still won 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Wheeler gets the start looking to build on his 6-4 record with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.93 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.00 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in eight starts on the road. In his four starts this month, Wheeler has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP with 22 strikeouts and only five walks in 23 innings. He should pitch well against this Mets team that has lost 10 of their last 14 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. New York has lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 6 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They counter with Carrrasco who has a 2-3 record with a 6.34 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in six starts this season. In his three starts this month, the 36-year-old right-hander has struggled with a 7.82 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP while walking eight batters and striking out only nine in his 12 2/3 innings. The Mets have lost 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog with Carrasco as their starting pitcher. New York has lost 21 of their last 23 games on the road. They have also lost 25 of their last 35 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers — and they have won 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 8* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Carlos Carrasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-23 |
Twins -148 v. Tigers |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-148 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (973) versus the Detroit Tigers (974) listing both starting pitchers Pablo Lopez and Reese Olson. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (39-38) has won three games in a row after their 4-1 victory on the road against the Tigers last night. Detroit (32-42) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Twins have won 6 of their last 9 road games when priced as a money-line favorite priced at -125 or higher. Lopez looks to build on his 3-4 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 15 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.40 and 3.53 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.72 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in seven starts as compared to his 5.94 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in eight starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with Lopez’s previous season with Miami where he had a 3.00 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 16 starts on the road as opposed to a 4.55 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in 16 starts at home. Lopez’s teams have won 6 of their last 9 road games with him making the start and priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Detroit has lost 7 of their last 9 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Tigers have also lost 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Olson who has an 0-2 record with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings since being called up to the major leagues this month. In his 9 1/3 innings at home, the right-hander has an 8.68 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have lost 13 of their last 20 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they scored no more than one run. 8* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (973) versus the Detroit Tigers (974) listing both starting pitchers Pablo Lopez and Reese Olson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-23 |
Brewers v. Guardians -112 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Guardians (976) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (975) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Bibee and Freddy Peralta. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (36-39) was on a four-game winning streak before their 7-1 loss to the Brewers last night. Milwaukee (39-36) has won five of their last seven games with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GUARDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland should bounce back this afternoon as they have won 8 of their last 11 games after losing their previous game. They have also won 23 of their last 34 games after a loss by six or more runs. Additionally, the Guardians have won 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. Cleveland has still won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record. Bibee gets the start tonight looking to build on his 3-2 record with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 10 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.57 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in five starts as opposed to his 5.68 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .308 in five starts on the road. Milwaukee has lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. The Brewers have also lost 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They counter with Peralta who has a 5-6 record with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been at his best at home where he owns a 3.75 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a .209 opponent’s batting average in nine starts — but those numbers rise to a 6.04 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in five starts on the road. Milwaukee is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Additionally, the Brewers have lost 6 of their last 7 games in Interleague play — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. The Guardians have won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cleveland is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .276 Batting Average, a .323 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .743 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Guardians have won 7 of their last 10 games when avenging an upset loss at home to their opponent — and they have won 10 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they scored no more than one run. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Cleveland Guardians (976) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (975) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Bibee and Freddy Peralta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-23 |
Angels v. Rockies UNDER 12 |
|
4-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (925) and the Colorado Rockies (926) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Sandoval and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (41-35) has lost two games in a row after their 2-0 loss on the road to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday. Colorado (29-48) has lost eight games in a row after their 5-3 loss at Cincinnati on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels got shutout in both their games against the Dodgers — so they have not scored a run in 18 straight innings. The Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after losing their last game — and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after an off day. They give the ball to Sandoval who has a 4-6 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 13 starts. The lefty has been less effective at home where he sports a 4.37 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .296 in six starts — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 3.79 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .215. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 3.31 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in 13 starts at home as opposed to his 2.54 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in 14 starts on the road. The Angels have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with Sandoval their starting pitcher and priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Rockies team that has played 6 straight Unders against left-handed starting pitchers — and Colorado has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when listed as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175 — and they have played 4 straight Unders with the Total set at 11 or higher. Colorado has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 opening games to a new series. After playing their last ten games on the road, they return home for the first time since June 11th — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total at Coors Field. They counter with Freeland who has a 4-8 record with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 15 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.19 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in eight starts as compared to his 5.92 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in seven starts on the road. Colorado has played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total with Sandoval their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels rank 21st and 19th in MLB since May 1st on the road against left-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. The Rockies rank 29th and 30th in MLB since May 1st at home against left-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. 8* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (925) and the Colorado Rockies (926) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Sandoval and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-23 |
Mets v. Phillies -109 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kodai Senga. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (38-26) has lost two games in a row after their 5-1 loss to Atlanta yesterday. New York (34-40) has lost four of their last five games after a 10-8 loss at Houston on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia had won six games in a row before their last two games to the juggernaut Braves — and they have still won 13 of their last 17 games. The Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They have been dominant at home where they have won 39 of their last 58 games at Citizens Bank Park. They have also won 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Walker gets the ball looking to build on his outstanding effort at Oakland where he held the A’s to just one earned in eight innings of work last Friday. Walker’s teams have won 13 of their last 14 games when he is following up a start where he allowed one earned run or less. For the season, the right-hander has a 7-3 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 15 starts. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.25 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in six starts as opposed to his 5.76 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in nine starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Mets team that has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 9 of their last 12 games after losing their last game. Additionally, the Mets have lost 7 of their last 8 road games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after an off day. They have also lost 20 of their last 27 games on the road. They counter with Senga who has a 6-4 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The 30-year-old fork-baller has thrived at home where he sports a 2.52 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .164 in seven starts — but he has been saddled with a 4.76 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in six starts on the road. He faces a Phillies team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 24 of their last 33 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog. 25* MLB National League East Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kodai Senga. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-23 |
Pirates v. Marlins -156 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
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At 6:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (956) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (955) listing both starting pitchers Braxton Garrett and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Miami (42-33) has lost two games in a row after their 6-3 loss to Toronto yesterday. Pittsburgh (34-39) has lost nine games in a row after an 8-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami was on a five-game winning streak before these last two losses — and they have still won 13 of their last 18 games. The Marlins should bounce back tonight as they have won 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have won 8 straight home games when priced as a money-line favorite from -150 to -200. Garrett gets the ball looking to build on his 3-2 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 13 starts. His numbers are skewed due to one blowup at home on May 3rd against Atlanta who scored 11 runs against him. In his last three starts at home, Garrett has a 3.53 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. Pittsburgh has lost 22 of their last 30 games after a loss — and they have lost 18 of their last 24 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They have also lost 15 of their last 22 games on the road with the Total set at 7 — and they have lost 29 of their last 35 road games in June. They counter with Keller who has an 8-3 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 15 starts. But while the right-hander has a 2.78 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home, those numbers rise to a 4.33 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in eight starts on the road. The Pirates have lost 41 of their last 57 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Marlins have won 7 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (956) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (955) listing both starting pitchers Braxton Garrett and Mitch Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-23 |
Padres v. Giants +115 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
115 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
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At 9:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the San Diego Padres (911) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Walker and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (41-32) has won nine straight games after their 4-3 win in the second game of this series. San Diego (35-38) has lost two straight games and four of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco is on-fire with 24 wins in their last 33 games — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games after winning their last contest. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games after winning five or more games in a row. The Giants have also won 25 of their last 37 games at home against teams with a losing record. Walker gets the start tonight looking to build on his 2-0 record with a 1.65 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.12 and 3.24 moving forward. Those numbers will work at the MLB level. In his 20 1/3 innings at Triple-A this year, he had a 0.89 ERA — but his xFIP of 2.71 during that span is also very respectable. He faces a Padres team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 13 of their last 20 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Darvish who has a 5-5 record with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 14 starts. The veteran right-hander’s best work has been at home where he owns a 3.64 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .235 opponent’s batting average in seven starts — but those numbers rise to a 6.19 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in six starts on the road. The Padres have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Darvish on the hill trying to end a losing streak for the team.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has won 20 of their last 28 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the San Diego Padres (911) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Walker and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-23 |
Dodgers v. Angels -137 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-137 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
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At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (930) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (929) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Brusdar Gaterol (a late pitching change). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Angels (41-34) have lost two of their last three games after their 2-0 loss to the Dodgers in the opening game of this series. The Los Angeles Dodgers (40-33) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Despite the loss last night, the Angels are rolling right now with 11 wins in their last 15 games — and management delivered a statement that they will not be trading Ohtani (who is raking at the plate this month) this summer. The Angels should bounce back tonight as they have won 4 straight games after a loss. They have also won 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They beat Kansas City by a 5-2 score in their previous game — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in two straight contests. They stay at home where they have won 5 of their last 7 games — and they have won 21 of their last 27 games at Angel Stadium of Anaheim when the Total is in the 7-8.5 range. Ohtani gets the start looking to build on his 6-2 record along with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 14 starts. The superstar right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.66 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .158 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.03 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in seven starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when he had a 1.82 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 14 home starts but a 2.92 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in 14 starts on the road. The Angels have won 23 of their last 34 games with Ohtani on the hill at home and favored at a -110 or higher price. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Dodgers are struggling with consistency being one of their issues as they have lost 6 in a row after winning their last game. They have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Another problem with this team is their bullpen whose 5.01 ERA is the second highest in MLB — and in their last seven games, the bullpen has a 7.37 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. Injuries in their starting rotation have also plagued this team which is why the organization called up Grove to pitch in this game. The right-hander has an 0-2 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in seven appearances (six starts) at the MLB level. The 26-year-old has been a disaster away from home with a 13.06 ERA, a 2.71 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .444 in his 10 1/3 innings on the road. Manager Dave Roberts has clarified that Grove will serve as a bulk reliever after Brusdar Graterol serves as the opener. This does not change our play on the Angels at all. This will be Graterol’s first time appearing as an opener this season. He has only pitched 6 1/3 innings this month with a 4.26 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .400. He has been more effective at home with a 1.12 WHIP and a .268 opponent’s batting average in 14 1/3 innings at home — but those numbers rise to a 1.34 WHIP and a .306 opponent’s batting average in 15 2/3 innings on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are slumping by scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 Batting Average, a .296 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .586 during that span. 20* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (930) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (929) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Brusdar Graterol. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-23 |
Rockies v. Reds -180 |
|
6-8 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (958) versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Noah Davis. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (38-35) has won nine straight games after their 5-4 victory against the Rockies yesterday. Colorado (29-46) has lost six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cincinnati is on fire with 12 wins in their last 14 games — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after winning their last game. They have also won 6 straight games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. Lively gets the ball looking to build on his 4-4 record along with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in eight games. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.83 and 3.96 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in four games as compared to his 4.43 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .298 on the road. Cincinnati has won 4 of their last 5 games at home. Colorado has lost 40 of their last 57 games after losing their last game. They have also lost 42 of their last 56 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Davis getting a call-up from Triple-A where he had a 6.31 ERA with a 6.32 xFIP this season. In his three starts for the Rockies earlier this year, the right-hander had a 6.17 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. The Rockies have lost 38 of their last 51 games on the road against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds have won 10 of their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 8* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (958) versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Noah Davis. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-23 |
Cubs v. Pirates +1.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-144 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (953) listing both starting pitchers Johan Oviedo and Marcus Stroman. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (34-37) has lost seven games in a row after their 8-0 loss at home to the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (34-38) has won six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Pittsburgh should bounce back with an inspired effort tonight after getting embarrassed last night. The Pirates have won 9 of their last 11 home games after a loss by eight or more runs — and they have won 26 of their last 40 home games after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. They have also still won 11 of their last 16 games at home against teams with a losing record. Oviedo gets the start tonight looking to build on his 3-6 record along with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.86 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in seven starts as compared to his 5.08 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts on the road. He should pitch well against a Cubs team that has lost 13 of their last 18 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 11 of their last 17 games after a win by eight or more runs — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games after a win by eight or more runs against an NL Central rival. The Cubs have also lost 15 of their last 21 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Chicago has lost 19 of their last 27 games on the road despite their win yesterday — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And in their last 12 road games when priced in the +/- 125 price range, they have lost 8 of those contests. They counter with Stroman who has an 8-4 record with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander is a prime candidate for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.62 moving forward. Stroman has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.25 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 2.72 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in seven starts on the road. Chicago has lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs’ offense is struggling without the injured Cody Bollinger in the middle of their lineup. While they rank 20th and 21st this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers, they fall to 26th and 27th in those metrics since May — and they are just 28th and 29th in those categories on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June. The Pirates are middle of the pack at 16th and 17th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching this month. While I think Pittsburgh are live dogs to pull the upset, I prefer investing in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line since that price is below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (953) listing both starting pitchers Johan Oviedo and Marcus Stroman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-23 |
Mets v. Astros -113 |
|
11-1 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (920) versus the New York Mets (919) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Houston (39-33) has lost four straight games after their 9-7 loss to Cincinnati yesterday. New York (33-38) has lost four of their last six games after an 8-7 loss to St. Louis on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston should bounce back with a strong effort as they have won 54 of their last 80 games after losing their previous game — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. The Astros have also won 7 of their last 8 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Brown gets the start looking to build on his 6-3 record along with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging that he can keep up those good numbers as his SIERA and xFIP protect an ERA of 3.50 and 3.17 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.21 ERA in six starts as camped to his 3.46 ERA in seven starts on the road. He should have success against a slumping Mets team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. They have also lost 18 of their last 24 games on the road. They counter with Scherzer who has a 5-2 record with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 11 starts. While the right-hander has been effective with a 2.98 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in four starts at home, he has struggled on the road with a 5.35 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in seven starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 7 games in a row against the Astros — and they have lost 8 in a row against them in Houston. 8* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (920) versus the New York Mets (919) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-18-23 |
White Sox v. Mariners -145 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Wilson and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Seattle (34-35) has lost two of their last three games after their 4-3 loss at home in extra innings to the White Sox yesterday. Chicago (31-41) had lost five of six games before picking up the win yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Manager Scott Servais called out his team last week as they continue to lack focus and discipline to extend winning streaks this season after making the playoffs last year. But Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games after losing their previous game. They have also won 48 of their last 75 games when priced up to -150. They stay at home to conclude this weekend's series where they have won 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a losing record. Wilson gets his ninth career start at the MLB level after posting a 4-3 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. The right-hander was outstanding out of the gate but then struggled in difficult starts against Texas and the New York Yankees before rebounding in his last outing against Miami. The 23-year-old right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.57 ERA and a .198 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home as compared to his 4.57 ERA and a .207 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. The Mariners have won 5 of his 6 starts when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a White Sox club that ranks 28th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this season — and they are just 27th and 26th in those categories since May 1st. Chicago is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. After a brutal 8-21 start, the White Sox had clawed themselves out of that hole to begin competing in the mediocre AL Central — but they have taken a step back again this week. Chicago has lost 21 of their last 31 games after winning their last game. The White Sox continue their six-game road trip with the fourth game away from home having lost 20 of their last 30 games on the road — and they have lost 17 of their last 23 games after playing their last three games on the road. They counter with Lynn who has a 4-7 record with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been a disaster in day games where he has been saddled with a 10.53 ERA, a 2.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .348 in four starts.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle ranks 14th this season in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they are ninth in that metric since May 1st. The Mariners are scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 57 of their last 84 games against teams with a losing record. 8* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Miller and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-17-23 |
Guardians v. Diamondbacks -102 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizonan Diamondbacks (930) versus the Cleveland Guardians (929) listing both starting pitchers Tommy Henry and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Arizona (42-28) snapped their three-game losing streak last night with a 5-1 victory against the Guardians in the opening game of this three-game series. Cleveland (32-37) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 20 of their last 28 games after winning their previous game. They have also won 16 of their last 21 games after scoring five or more runs in their last contest — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Diamondbacks have now won 13 of their last 18 games even after this losing streak — and they have won 9 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record. They have also won 24 of their last 33 games against teams with a losing record. Henry gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 3-1 record along with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 10 appearances (nine starts). The left-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in four starts — but he has been solid at home where enjoys a 3.60 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in six appearances. Cleveland has lost 13 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road in Interleague play. Manager Terry Francona counters with Bieber who has a 5-3 record with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.53 and 4.21 moving forward. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.89 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in six starts — but in his eight starts on the road, he has a 4.35 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 17 of their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizonan Diamondbacks (930) versus the Cleveland Guardians (929) listing both starting pitchers Tommy Henry and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-23 |
White Sox v. Mariners -128 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (970) versus the Chicago White Sox (969) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Michael Kopech. THE SITUATION: Seattle (33-34) has their two-game winning streak snapped in a 4-1 loss to Miami on Wednesday. Chicago (30-40) has lost four of their last five games after a 5-4 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Manager Scott Servais called out his team as they continue to lack focus and discipline to extend winning streaks this season after making the playoffs last year. But Seattle has won 8 of their last 11 games after an off day. They have also won 47 of their last 74 games when priced up to -150. They stay at home this weekend where they have won 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 27 of their last 36 home games against teams with a losing record. Woo gets his third career start at the MLB level after posting an 0-1 record with a 10.80 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his first two starts. The 23-year old right-hander probably deserved better considering that his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 2.90 and 2.55 in those two outings. His 11 strikeouts in his 6 2/3 innings represent 33% of the batters he has faced at the MLB level. In Double-A this season, he was seventh in the minor leagues with a 27.3% K-BB rate — and he posted a 2.05 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in those 44 innings. Pitching on the road against the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers who both rank in the top-six in weighted Runs Created did not do him any favors. Now he makes his professional debut at home at T-Mobile Park a White Sox club that ranks 28th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this season — and they are just 27th and 26th in those categories since May 1st. Chicago is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. After a brutal 8-21 start, the White Sox had clawed themselves out of that hole to begin competing in the mediocre AL Central — but they have taken a step back again this week. Their bullpen let them down last night with the Dodgers rallying from a 4-0 deficit in the sixth inning to tie the game before winning in extra innings. Chicago has lost 7 of their last 9 games after a one-run loss — and they have lost 8 of their last 13 games after a blown save. The White Sox continue their six-game road trip with the fourth game away from home having lost 19 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 games after playing their last three games on the road. They counter with Kopech who has a 3-5 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 13 starts. Admittedly, the right-hander has been much better in his last five starts after getting an extra day off to rework his mechanics. But he has also benefited from an easier work load with four of those starts against Kansas City, Cleveland, Detroit, and Miami who all have some of the weaker lineups in the league. He allowed four runs in 4 1/3 innings in a start on the road against the Los Angeles Angels during that stretch. The sabermetrics still call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.13 and 4.56 moving forward. And while he has a 3.83 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in eight starts, those numbers rise to a 4.34 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in five starts on the road. He did pitch five scoreless innings at home against the Marlins in his last start — but the White Sox have lost 5 in a row when Kopech is following up a start where he did not allow an earned run.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle ranks 12th this season weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they are eighth in that metric since May 1st. The Mariners are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 56 of their last 82 games against teams with a losing record. 10* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (970) versus the Chicago White Sox (969) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Michael Kopech. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-23 |
Guardians v. Diamondbacks -180 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizonan Diamondbacks (976) versus the Cleveland Guardians (975) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Touki Toussaint. THE SITUATION: Arizona (41-28) has lost three games in a row after their 5-4 loss to Philadelphia yesterday. Cleveland (32-36) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 8-6 win at San Diego yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has still won 12 of their last 17 games even after this losing streak — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row. They have also won 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 23 of their last 32 games against teams with a losing record. Gallen gets the start looking to build on his 7-2 record along with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.79 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in seven starts — but he has been almost unhittable at home where he enjoys a 0.96 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in seven starts. Cleveland has lost 16 of their last 23 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. The Guardians have also lost 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road in Interleague play. Manager Terry Francona had to replace his initially planned starting pitcher Triston McKenzie after the right-hander experienced right elbow pain. The team called up Toussaint to make his debut with the team after pitching in the minor leagues all season. The former Atlanta Braves prospect pitched for the Los Angeles Angels last year. In his 25 1/3 innings at the MLB level last year, he had a 4.62 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP — and both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.85 and 4.78.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 16 of their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Arizonan Diamondbacks (976) versus the Cleveland Guardians (975) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Touki Toussaint. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-23 |
Tigers v. Twins -194 |
|
8-4 |
Loss |
-194 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (912) versus the Detroit Tigers (911) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (35-35) has won four of their last five games after their 4-2 win against Milwaukee yesterday. Detroit (27-39) has lost 10 of their last 11 games after a 6-5 loss to Atlanta yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 26 of their last 39 games when priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. They give the ball to Gray who has a 4-1 record with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.71 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in seven starts as compared to his 3.00 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in six starts on the road. His teams have won 14 of their last 20 home games when he is starting and priced as a money-line favorite from -150 or higher. He should thrive against this Tigers team that ranks last in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Detroit’s struggle against right-handers is made worse with the injury of their left-handed slugger Riley Greene who is probably their best positional player. The Tigers have lost 6 straight road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has also lost 9 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They have also lost 6 straight games on the road — and they have lost 41 of their last 57 road games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, they have lost 5 of these games. They counter with Boyd who has a 3-5 record with a 5.55 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 12 starts. In his last three starts, he has been saddled with a 6.12 ERA. His teams have lost 20 of their last 29 road games with him on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Twins had been struggling against left-handed starting pitchers — but they rank 10th and 8th respectively in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers this month. 8* MLB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (912) versus the Detroit Tigers (911) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-23 |
Giants +1.5 v. Cardinals |
|
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 1:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Jordan Montgomery. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (35-32) has won three games in a row after their 11-3 win on the road against the Cardinals last night. St. Louis (27-41) has lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cardinals are a mess. After the Willson Contreras debacle where they temporarily removed their splashy free agent signing in the offseason from his catching responsibilities, St. Louis went on a mini-run by winning 11 of 14 games. But the bottom fell out again as the Cardinals have since lost 14 of their last 20 games including nine of their last 11 contests. They have only scored 13 combined runs during their four-game losing streak — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games after losing their previous game. St. Louis has also lost 4 straight games at home — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 games at home with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Montgomery gets sent out to the mound this afternoon to build on his 3-7 record along with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.09 and 3.89 moving forward. The left-hander has been less effective at home where he has a 4.68 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP in six starts, and an opponent’s batting average of .287 as compared to his 3.20 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in seven starts on the road.
|
06-11-23 |
Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-33) has lost three of their last four games — and six of their last eight — after a 3-1 loss on the road against the Yankees on Saturday. New York (38-28) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees lineup is slumping without Aaron Judge who is on the injured list with a toe injury. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 Batting Average, a .250 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661 during that span. They have not scored more than three runs in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They beat the Red Sox by a 3-2 score in Game One on Friday — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored more than three runs. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning their previous game. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Schmidt gets the ball looking to build on his 2-6 record with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.93 moving forward. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in five starts. Schmidt has a 3.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eight starts at night — and New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Schmidt as their starting pitcher in a night game. He faces a Mets team that has played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 Batting Average, a .307 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have not scored more than three runs in four straight games and in seven of their last eight contests. The Red Sox have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Bello who has a 3-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.77 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in three starts as compared to his 4.23 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. Boston has played 5 straight Unders on the road with Bello pitching with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Red Sox have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Boston ranks 23rd in MLB in both weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since May 1st. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
06-11-23 |
Twins v. Blue Jays -192 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 1:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (918) versus the Minnesota Twins (917) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Louie Varland. THE SITUATION: Toronto (36-30) has lost two games in a row after their 9-4 loss at home to the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (33-32) is on a two-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto should bounce back this afternoon as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Blue Jays have still won 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record. Gausman gets the ball as he looks to build on his 5-3 record along with his 2.63 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 13 starts. The sabermetrics indicate he is right on track with his excellent season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.72 and 2.52 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home with a 1.65 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in six starts. He should pitch well against this Twins team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 10 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Varland who has a 3-2 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in eight starts. But while the rookie right-hander has a 3.44 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in three starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.02 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in five starts on the road. Minnesota has lost 28 of their last 41 road games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (918) versus the Minnesota Twins (917) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Louie Varland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-23 |
Mariners v. Angels -111 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (924) versus the Seattle Mariners (923) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Luis Castillo. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (34-30) has won four games in a row after their 3-1 win at home against the Chicago White Sox yesterday. Seattle (30-31) has lost four of their last five games after their 10-3 loss at San Diego on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 17 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They stay at home for this weekend series where they are scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games at home. They have also won 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record. Ohtani gets the start looking to build on his 5-2 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for more of the same with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.31 and 3.30 which is pretty much on the money. The superstar right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.31 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .154 in six starts as opposed to his 4.50 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in six starts. Seattle has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 4 straight row games against teams with a winning record. The Mariners counter with Castillo who has a 4-3 record with a 2.55 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression by almost a run with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.28 and 3.27 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 1.89 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a .175 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home, those numbers rise to a 3.91 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in four starts on the road. He faces an Angels team that has won 18 of their last 25 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Ohtani should win this pitchers duel with Castillo with the Mariners scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .204 Batting Average, a .268 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .555 during that span. Seattle has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 10* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (924) versus the Seattle Mariners (923) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Luis Castillo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-23 |
White Sox v. Yankees -134 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-134 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (962) versus the Chicago White Sox (961) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Lucas Giolito. THE SITUATION: New York (36-25) has won two games in a row — and six of their last eight contests — after a 4-1 win in Los Angeles against the Dodgers Sunday night. Chicago (26-35) has won three games in a row after a 6-2 win at home against Detroit on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 8 of their last 10 games after winning their previous game — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. They return home for the first time since May 28th having won 39 of their last 51 games at Yankee Stadium against teams with a losing record. Schmidt gets the ball tonight looking to improve on his 2-5 record along with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be getting better results. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.79 and 3.78 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.68 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts as opposed to his 5.48 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305. Last season, Schmidt had a 2.49 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .186 in 25 1/3 innings at home as compared to his 3.62 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in 32 1/3 innings on the road. He faces a White Sox team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 18 of their last 26 games after winning their last contest. They have also lost 21 of their last 28 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. The White Sox send out Giolito who has a 4-4 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetics are not bullish with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.14 and 4.44 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.70 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in six starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.68 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, and a .292 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Chicago has lost 16 of their last 22 games on the road — and they are winless in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record. The Yankees have beaten 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have lost 11 of their last 15 games against the Yankees — and they have lost 36 of their last 52 games against New York in Yankee Stadium. 10* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Yankees (962) versus the Chicago White Sox (961) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Lucas Giolito. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-23 |
Twins v. Rays -161 |
|
0-7 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (960) versus the Minnesota Twins (959) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Louie Varland. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (43-19) is on a three-game winning streak after a 4-1 win at Boston on Monday. Minnesota (31-29) has lost two games in a row after their 2-1 loss to Cleveland on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay continues to roll this season — and they have won 29 of their last 42 games after winning their previous game. The Rays have also won 40 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Tampa Bay returns home for the first time since May 28th where they have won 41 of their last 54 games at Tropicana Field. Eflin gets the start tonight looking to build on his 7-1 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 10 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.19 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in six starts as opposed to his 5.09 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in four starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Twins team that has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And in their last 62 games on the road, the Twins have lost 42 of those games. They counter with Varland who has a 3-1 record with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in seven starts. But while the right-hander has a 3.44 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in three starts, those numbers rise to a 3.57 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in four starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Rays have won 34 of their last 50 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (960) versus the Minnesota Twins (959) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Louie Varland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-23 |
Royals v. Marlins -162 |
|
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (968) versus the Kansas City Royals (967) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Miami (33-28) has won four games in a row — and eight of their last ten contests — after their 9-6 win at home against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (18-42) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 5 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 6 straight games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. And in their last 7 games after winning their last game, they have then won their next 5 games. They stay at home where they have won 4 straight games and 9 of their last 11 at Loan DePot Park. Luzardo gets the ball looking to build on his 4-4 record along with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.66 and 3.86 moving forward. He should have success against a Royals team that has lost 13 of their last 18 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 20 of their last 29 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Kansas City has lost 10 of their last 14 games after a loss. On the road, Kansas City has lost 48 of their last 66 games. Greinke gets the ball for the Royals — he has a 1-5 record with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 12 starts. But while the right-hander has a 3.00 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in six starts, he has been saddled with a 5.52 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in six starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Marlins have won 11 of their last 12 games in Interleague play. 8* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (968) versus the Kansas City Royals (967) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-23 |
Royals v. Marlins -154 |
|
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (910) versus the Kansas City Royals (909) listing both starting pitchers Braxton Garrett and Carlos Hernandez. THE SITUATION: Miami (32-28) has won three games in a row — and seven of their last nine contests — after their 7-5 win against Oakland yesterday. Kansas City (18-41) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 2-0 win against Colorado yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 5 straight games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. And in their last 10 games at home, the Marlins have won 8 of these games. Garrett gets the ball looking to extend his four-game stretch where he has posted a 1.66 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP across 21 2/3 innings while striking out 26 batters during that span. The left-hander has a 1-2 record with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP this season with those numbers inflated from a disastrous start against Atlanta on May 3rd when he gave up 11 earned runs. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.58 and 3.32 moving forward. He should have success against a Royals team that has lost 12 of their last 17 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 19 of their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Kansas City has lost 26 of their last 36 games after a win. The Royals have also lost 35 of their last 51 games after scoring two runs or less — and they have lost 24 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. On the road, Kansas City has lost 47 of their last 65 games. Hernandez returns to the mound for the first time since June 2nd after suffering a thumb injury. He has an 0-3 record with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP and will be the opener before giving the ball to Mike Mayers who will be a bulk innings reliever tonight. The 31-year-old right-hander has a 1-0 record with a 1.35 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings — but his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.72 and 3.73 moving forward.
FINAL TAKE: The Marlins have won 10 of their last 11 games in Interleague play. 8* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (910) versus the Kansas City Royals (909) listing both starting pitchers Braxton Garrett and Carlos Hernandez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-23 |
Yankees v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Bobby Miller. THE SITUATION: New York (34-25) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 6-3 victory against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (35-23) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They give the ball to German who has a 3-3 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.11 and 4.8 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 3.19 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .155 in five starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.01 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in his five starts on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. New York has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They counter with Miller who is making his third career MLB start after posting a 2-0 record with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in his first two games. The sabermetrics indicate he is overachieving with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.70 and 3.34 moving forward. The Dodgers have played 4 straight Overs at home — and in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record, the game finished Over the Total 18 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 12-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-23 |
A's v. Marlins -197 |
|
1-12 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (928) versus the Oakland A’s (927) listing both starting pitchers Eury Perez and Luis Medina. THE SITUATION: Miami (30-28) has won two of their last three games after a 4-0 loss at home against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (12-47) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami has won five of their last seven games after last night’s victory. Perez gets the start looking to build on his 2-1 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in his first four starts since being called up from Triple-A to make his major league debut this season. The hard-throwing right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.79 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in two starts. The Marlins have won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Perez has a great opportunity for a great outing against this A’s team that has lost 40 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Oakland has lost 42 of their last 52 games after losing their previous game. Additionally, the A’s have lost 41 of their last 53 games on the road — and they have lost 44 of their last 57 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Mark Kotsay turns to Medina to take the mound for the A’s. The right-hander has an 0-4 record with a 6.83 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in five games (for starts) this season. While he has struggled with a 5.71 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 17 1/3 innings at home, those numbers are even worse on the road where he has been saddled with an 8.71 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a .289 opponent’s batting average in 10 1/3 innings on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s have lost 23 of their last 24 day games. 8* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (928) versus the Oakland A’s (927) listing both starting pitchers Eury Perez and Luis Medina. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-23 |
Blue Jays v. Mets -125 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
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At 7:45 PM ET on Friday (after a rain delay pushed back the original 7:10 PM ET start time), we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (974) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (973) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Chris Bassitt. THE SITUATION: New York (30-27) has won three games in a row after their 4-2 victory against Philadelphia yesterday. Toronto (30-27) has won four of their last five games after their 3-1 victory against Milwaukee on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 10 of their last 14 contests coming into this weekend's series. The Mets have won 7 of their last 9 games after a win. Verlander gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 2-2 record with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home for New York where has a 1.00 WHIP along with a .220 opponent’s batting average in two starts at home as compared to his 1.18 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in three starts on the road. Last year with the Houston Astros, the right-hander posted a 1.64 ERA in his 15 starts at home as opposed to a 1.86 ERA in 13 starts on the road. Verlanders’ teams have won 7 of their last 9 games at home when he is the starting pitcher and priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. The Mets have won 8 straight games at home — and they have won 29 of their last 41 home games when priced from -100 to -150. Verlander should pitch well against this Blue Jays team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Toronto has still lost 9 of their last 13 games. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by two or more runs. The Blue Jays have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. They counter with Bassitt who has a 5-4 record with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 11 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.68 and 4.79 moving forward — and the Regression Gods may have already made their presence known since Bassitt has given up 13 runs in his last two starts (but four of those runs were unearned). Bassitt has been most effective at home where he has a 2.16 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .127 in five starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.45 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in six starts on the road. Toronto has lost 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers and 49 of their last 68 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the money-line on the New York Mets (974) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (973) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Chris Bassitt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-02-23 |
A's v. Marlins -190 |
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0-4 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
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At 6:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (972) versus the Oakland A’s (971) listing both starting pitchers Edward Cabrera and Shintaro Fujinami. THE SITUATION: Miami (29-28) has lost two of their last three games after a 10-0 loss at home to San Diego yesterday. Oakland (12-46) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 4-2 loss at home to Atlanta on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami had won three straight games before they’re dropping two of their last three contests. They have bounced back to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have won 4 straight games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Cabrera gets the start tonight looking to build on his 3-4 record along with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 11 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.50 and 4.14 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.60 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in four starts as compared to his 5.91 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven road starts. The Marlins have won 5 of their last 7 games at home. Cabrera has a great opportunity for a great outing against this A’s team that has lost 39 of their last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Oakland has lost 41 of their last 51 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 20 of their last 27 games after an off day. Additionally, the A’s have lost 40 of their last 52 games on the road — and they have lost 43 of their last 56 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Mark Kotsay will open with Shintaro Fujinami tonight who has struggled as a traditional starter given his 2-5 record with a 12.00 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP. Hogan Harris will then serve as a build reliever despite a 10.13 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 5 1/3 innings across two appearances.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has won 4 of their last 5 games against the A’s entering this weekend's series. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (972) versus the Oakland A’s (971) listing both starting pitchers Edward Cabrera and Shintaro Fujinami. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-31-23 |
Yankees v. Mariners OVER 7.5 |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and George Kirby. THE SITUATION: New York (34-23) has won four games in a row after their 10-2 victory in the second game of this series. Seattle (28-27) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have scored 30 runs in their last three games — scoring 10 times in each of those contests. They have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Schmidt gets the start looking to build on his 2-5 record with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 11 starts. But while the right-hander has a 4.68 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts at home, those numbers rise to a 7.27 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .347 in four starts on the road. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning record. After a slow start to the season, the Mariners rank 11th and 8th this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss by eight or more runs. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs. They counter with Kirby who has a 5-4 record with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 10 starts. But while the right-hander has a 2.34 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in five starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in five starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees lineup that ranks 3rd and 2nd in MLB on the road against right-handed pitching this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 meetings — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games when playing in Seattle. 8* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and George Kirby. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-31-23 |
Angels v. White Sox -132 |
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12-5 |
Loss |
-132 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
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At 2:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (964) versus the Los Angeles Angels (963) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Jaime Barria. THE SITUATION: Chicago (23-34) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 7-3 victory at home against the Angels in the second game of their three-game series. Los Angeles (29-27) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago endured a disastrous start of the season which included a ten-game losing streak and a 7-21 record in late April. But the White Sox have since gone a respectable 16-13 to put them back into contention in the AL Central. In hindsight, injuries played a role in the slow start — but this team is getting healthier again including the return of their closer Liam Hendricks from cancer treatment. Chicago also played the most difficult schedule in April going by current records. In addition to these factors, the White Sox are simply playing better — and that is embodied no better than in the improvement of Lynn this month. Don’t look at his 5.83 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP that accompanies his 4-5 record in 11 starts. After some tweaks in his delivery, the veteran right-hander has a 1.89 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in his last three starts. The average velocity for the batted balls put into play against him has only been 86.9 Miles Per Hour — and he is generating swinging strikes in an impressive 10.6% of the pitches he has thrown over that span. Even with his subpar efforts to begin the season, both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.99 and 3.89 moving forward which is right in line with his 3.99 ERA last season. The White Sox have won 34 of their last 49 games in May with Lynn as their starting pitcher including nine of these last 11 circumstances. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Barria who has a 1-2 record with a 1.55 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 12 games spanning 29 innings this season. This is just his second start of the season after almost exclusively being used out of the bullpen. The sabermetrics call for regression for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.57 and 3.67 moving forward. And while he has a 0.60 ERA in 15 innings at home, his ERA rises to a 2.57 mark in his 14 innings on the road. The Angels have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road when Barria is their starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (964) versus the Los Angeles Angels (963) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Jaime Barria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-30-23 |
Royals v. Cardinals -173 |
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1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
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At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (926) versus the Kansas City Royals (925) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (24-32) has lost three of their last four games after their 7-0 loss to the Royals in the opening game of this series. Kansas City (17-38) has won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis should rebound with a strong effort after getting shutout last night. The Cardinals have won 7 of their last 8 games after losing their last game — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games a home at Busch Stadium. Mikolas gets the ball as he looks to conclude a strong month of May after generating a 2.40 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts to go along with a 2-0 record. Last season, the right-hander sported a 2.38 ERA along with a 0.83 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in his 14 starts at home. He should pitch well against this Royals team that ranks last in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has lost 11 of their last 16 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 11 of their last 15 games on the road. They counter with Greinke who has a 1-5 record with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts. The 37-year-old right-hander comes off a nice outing where he allowed only one run in five innings against Detroit last Wednesday. But that start was at home where he has a 3.00 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in six starts. But in his five starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 6.66 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .293 in five starts. Last season, Greinke had a 5.32 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .307 in 14 starts but a sterling 1.91 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in 12 starts at home — so his disparate home/road splits are nothing new. The Royals have lost 16 of their last 23 road games with Greinke on the mound as an underdog. He faces a Cardinals team that has won 4 of their last 5 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis was a money-line favorite priced in the -200 range yesterday — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home when favored at a -150 or higher price. 8* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (926) versus the Kansas City Royals (925) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-30-23 |
Guardians v. Orioles -131 |
|
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (914) versus the Cleveland Guardians (913) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Cal Quantrill. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (34-20) has lost three of their last four games after their 5-0 loss to the Guardians yesterday. Cleveland (24-29) has won three of their last four contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore has bounced back to win 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also won 11 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than two runs — and they have won 20 of their last 27 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games at home, the Orioles have won 4 of these contests. Gibson gets the start after pitching seven shutout innings in New York against the Yankees last Thursday. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.04 ERA and a .230 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.25 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in seven starts on the road. His teams have won 15 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. He faces a Guardians squad that has lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning two or more games in a row. The Guardians stay on the road where they have lost 7 of their last 9 games. They counter with Quantrill who has a 2-3 record with a 4.75 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of 1.35 in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.43 and a 5.46 moving forward. The right-hander has a 5.13 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in six starts at night. He faces an Orioles team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 20 of their last 27 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has won 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss at home when they were favored. 8* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (914) versus the Cleveland Guardians (913) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Cal Quantrill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-30-23 |
Padres v. Marlins -119 |
Top |
9-4 |
Loss |
-119 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
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At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Miami (28-26) has won three games in a row after their weekend sweep in Los Angeles against the Angels on Sunday. San Diego (24-29) has lost two games in a row after their 10-8 loss in New York against the Yankees on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami returns home after their ten-game road trip — and they have won 4 straight games at home. They have also won 4 straight games at home against teams with a losing record. And in their last 15 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, the Marlins have won 10 of these games. Alcantara gets the ball looking to improve on his 2-5 record along with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in ten starts. These are disappointing numbers for the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner who posted a 14-9 record with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 32 starts last season. Some regression was expected given the new rules outlawing the shift. Alcantara is a ground ball pitcher — and the Marlins ranked fifth in MLB last season in their use of the defensive shifts. Opposing hitters had a .207 batting average against Alcantara last year when Miami had the shift on. This season, opposing hitters have a Batting Average of Balls put Into Play (BABIP) against him of .287 — far above his career BABIP of .269. Even without the benefit of the shift anymore, Alcantara should see his BABIP drop, albeit perhaps not down to last year’s .269 (cutting the difference in half still helps). But the bigger issue is that Alcantara is leaving only 61.5% of runners on base — a big drop from his 73.5% career strand rate. This is a phenomenon that should improve for the 27-year-old. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.28 and 4.18 from his current peripheral numbers. He comes off a nice start at dangerous Coors Field where he allowed only two runs in six innings against Colorado last Wednesday. Alcantara is also a much better pitcher at home at Loan Depot Park where he has a 4.05 ERA along with an outstanding 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in five starts — as opposed to his 5.76 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in five starts on the road. Last year, Alcantara had a 1.64 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a .191 opponent's batting average in 16 home starts as compared to a 3.01 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 16 starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Padres team that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .213 Batting Average, a .306 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .678. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have an imbalanced lineup with little offensive production coming from the first base and catcher positions. They have failed to score more than three runs in 24 games this season — and they have lost 21 of those contests. San Diego has lost 8 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 21 of their last 31 games after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. The Padres have now lost 12 of their last 17 contests — and manager Bob Melvin tasks Weathers to end the losing streak. The lefty comes off a six-inning outing at Washington where he allowed five runs (four earned) last Wednesday. He has a 1-3 record with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in seven appearances including five starts. While his ERA at the spacious Petco Park is 3.27 in 11 innings, that mark rises to a 4.34 clip in his 18 2/3 innings on the road. His 5.40 SIERA and 5.29 xFIP call for regression by about 1 1/2 runs per game. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against the Marlins in Miami.
FINAL TAKE: Miami is heating up with their bats after scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .313 Batting Average, a .380 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .862 during that span. The Marlins rank 10th and 9th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers (with dudes like Jorge Soler absolutely raking against lefties). Miami has won 6 of their last 7 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-28-23 |
Phillies v. Braves -1.5 |
Top |
4-11 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
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At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dylan Covey. The SITUATION: Atlanta (31-21) has lost two games in a row and four of their last six after a 2-1 loss in the third game of their series with the Phillies. Philadelphia (25-27) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta should rebound with a strong effort to settle for a split in this series with their NL East rival. They have won 20 of their last 25 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have won 31 of their last 45 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have also won 51 of their last 78 games at home — and they have won 35 of their last 52 home games against teams with a losing record. Their ace gets the pitching assignment tonight as he looks to build off his 4-2 record along with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.52 and 2.62 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .176 in five starts as opposed to his 1.15 WHIP and .196 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. He should thrive against a Phillies team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .241 Batting Average, a .318 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .384 during that span. Philadelphia has still lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road gassed against teams with a winning record. The Phillies counter with Covey who is getting a tryout in the starting rotation after allowing only one run in five innings of work in relief at home against Arizona last Tuesday. The 31-year-old right-hander has a 0-0 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in his two games spanning nine innings this season. Philly claimed him off waivers after he was sent down by the Los Angeles Dodgers a week ago after a fill-in relief appearance. He has not pitched at the MLB level since 2020 when he had a 7.07 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 innings. In his 32 innings in Triple-A for the Dodgers before getting picked up by the Phillies, he had an underwhelming 4.22 ERA with 28 strikeouts by 18 bases-on-balls. He will be supported by a Philadelphia bullpen that has a 5.86 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP on the road this season.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 42 of their last 51 games when priced at -200 or higher — and they have won 8 of their last 9 home games when priced at -200 or higher with Strider their starting pitcher. While I do not endorse money-line favorites priced above my -150 threshold for featured 25*/20*/10* plays, let’s instead invest in the -1.5 Run-Line to lower the price to back the Braves tonight in a great situation for them. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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