08-12-19 |
Red Sox v. Indians +108 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
108 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (962) versus the Boston Red Sox (961) listing both starting pitchers Zach Plesac and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (70-47) has won five of their last six games as well — as nine of their last twelve contests — with their 7-3 victory in Minnesota against the Twins. Boston (62-57) has lost two straight games — as well as eleven of their last fourteen contests — after their 5-4 loss in 10 innings against the Angels yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland has quietly been one of the best teams in baseball since the All-Star break — they have won twenty-six of their last thirty-five games. The Indians return home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Cleveland has won 8 straight games at home with the Total set in the 10 to 10.5 range. They give the ball to Plesac who is 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander comes off a strong outing where he did not allow an earned run in 6 innings of work while striking out seven batters against the Rangers. Please has been his most effective at home where he owns a 2.97 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in seven starts. The Indians have won 5 straight home games with Plesac on the mound. Please has also thrived at night where he has a 2.10 ERA along with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in six starts. Cleveland has won 6 straight night games with Plesac making the start. While Plesac was not a highly touted prospect in the minor leagues, his increased velocity has helped him exceed expectations at the major league level. He should pitch another good game against this slumping Red Sox team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, this reeling Red Sox team has lost 8 straight games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Boston has lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have lost 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Red Sox have also lost 21 of their last 31 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Rodriguez who is 13-5 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-four starts this season. The left-hander has done his best pitching at home in Fenway Park where he owns a 3.89 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in twelve starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.46 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his twelve starts on the road. He faces an Indians team that has won 22 of their last 29 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning thirteen of their last sixteen games at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland has also won 35 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Indians have won 4 of their 5 encounters with the Red Sox — and they have also won 13 of their last 18 opportunities to host Boston in Progressive Field. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (962) versus the Boston Red Sox (961) listing both starting pitchers Zach Plesac and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-19 |
Cubs v. Reds -124 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-124 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (904) versus the Chicago Cubs (903) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (56-59) has won five of their last six games — as well as ten of their last fourteen contests — after their 10-1 win over the Cubs yesterday in Game Three of this four-game series. Chicago (63-54) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cincinnati has then won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Reds have also won 5 of their last 6 games at home. They give the ball to Castillo who is 11-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.22 ERA along with a 0.92 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .174 in fourteen starts. Cincinnati has won 4 of their last 5 games with Castillo pitching at home. And while Castillo comes off a strong outing where he struck out 13 batters in 7 innings of work at home while allowing just two runs in a win over the Angels. The Reds have won 4 of their last 5 games with Castillo looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Cubs team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 22 of their last 31 games on the road. The Cubs have also lost 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. Chicago has also lost 20 of their last 30 road games when it is at least their fourth straight game away from home. They counter with Lester who is 9-8 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The left-hander comes off a brutal start where he allowed eleven runs in just four innings of work in a game where manager Joe Maddon kept him in the game to delay as long as possible going to his bullpen. Since May 18th, Lester has a rough 5.98 ERA. The veteran also sees his ERA rise to a 4.81 mark in his ten starts on the road. The Cubs have lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Lester on the mound making the start. He faces a hot-hitting Reds team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .295 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .911 during that span. Cincinnati has also won 6 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have lost 10 of their last 13 games played against the Reds in the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (904) versus the Chicago Cubs (903) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-09-19 |
Pirates v. Cardinals -140 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (908) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Chris Archer. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (58-55) lost all five games on their recent road trip that ended on Wednesday with their 2-1 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels. Pittsburgh (48-66) has lost five straight games — as well as fifteen of their last seventeen contests — after their 8-3 loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Pirates have been reeling since the All-Star Break as they have lost twenty-one of their last twenty-five games since the Midseason Classic. Pittsburgh has lost 17 of their last 22 games after a loss — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Pirates have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after an off day. Additionally, Pittsburgh has lost 19 of their last 24 games after losing at least three straight games — and they have lost 24 of their last 34 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Now the Pirates go back on the road where they have lost 21 of their last 28 games — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has also lost 23 of their last 31 games against fellow NL Central opponents. They give the ball to Archer who is 3-8 with a 5.35 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander comes off a nice start where he allowed only one run at home against the Mets in 6 innings of work — but the Pirates have then lost 6 straight games with Archer looking to follow up a Quality Start. Archer pitches much better at home where he owns a 3.98 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers skyrocket to a 7.14 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP and .254 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. The Pirates have lost 11 of their last 14 road games with Archer on the mound. He faces a Cardinals team that has won 16 of their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. St. Louis has bounce-back to win 25 of their last 38 games after a loss by just one run. The Cardinals have also won 30 of their last 44 games after losing at least three in a row. St. Louis is struggling on offense as they have not scored more than three runs in five straight games. But the Cardinals have then won 27 of their last 40 games after failing to score more than four runs in their last three games — and they have also won 42 of their last 59 home games after failing to score more than three runs in three straight contests. Returning home again will help — St. Louis has won 33 of their last 45 games when favored up to a -150 price. The Cardinals have also won 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, St. Louis has won 7 of their last 8 games against NL Central rivals — and they have won 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new series. They counter with Hudson who is 10-6 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in twenty-two starts (twenty-three games). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.54 ERA. The Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Hudson on the hill. St. Louis has also won 8 straight games with Hudson facing a team with a losing record. He faces a slumping Pirates lineup that is hitting just .230 batting average over their last seven games along with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 during that span. Pittsburgh has also lost 8 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has won 20 of their last 28 meetings between these two teams — and this includes them winning five straight against the Pirates after completing a three-game sweep in Pittsburgh last month. The Pirates have lost 11 of their last 13 games when attempting to avenge at least two straight losses at home to their opponent. 25* MLB National League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (908) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Chris Archer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-19 |
Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (909) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: Arizona (57-57) has won three of their last four games with their 8-4 victory over the Phillies in the second game of this series. Philadelphia (59-54) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games on the road Over the Total after losing two of their last three contests. Additionally, not only has Philadelphia played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game but they have also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. The Philly bullpen let the team down yesterday by giving up six earned runs — and they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least five earned runs. Philadelphia has also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They give the ball to Vargas who is 6-5 with a 3.93 ERA along with a 1.25 WHIP in nineteen starts (twenty appearances). The left-hander is making his second start with his new team after being traded from the Mets at the trade deadline. The sabermetrics are troubling with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.02 and 5.08 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Vargas’ first start in a Phillies uniform was a success as he allowed only two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work — but that start was at his new home against the White Sox. Vargas has a 2.92 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in nine starts (ten games) as the home team — but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average in his ten starts on the road. Vargas’ teams have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with him making the start. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .281 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .867 over that span. Arizona has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Over is 5-1-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Gallen who will be making his first start with his new team since being acquired in a trade with Miami. The right-hander had a 1-3 record with the Marlins along with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in seven starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the 23-year-old either with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and a 4.46 moving forward this season. Gallen was not as effective at home when pitching for Miami either — despite Marlins Park being friendly to pitchers. Gallen had a 3.71 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP at home as compared to his filthy 1.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP when pitching on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (909) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-19 |
A's v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 |
|
11-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (975) and the Chicago Cubs (976) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Chicago (61-51) has won four straight games with their 6-5 win over the A’s in the opening game of this series. Oakland (64-49) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Chicago has played 27 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a narrow win by just one run — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home at Wrigley Field. They give their ball to Lester who is 9-7 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.95 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP in eleven starts as compared to his 4.81 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Lester pitching on grass. He faces an A’s team that has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the A’s have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Anderson who is 9-7 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.49 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 as opposed to his 4.65 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average of .286 at home. Not only has Oakland played 5 straight road games Under the Total with Anderson on the hill but they have also played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Anderson pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Cubs’ lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Under is also 8-1-1 in Chicago’s last 10 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a one-run loss to their opponent. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (975) and the Chicago Cubs (976) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-19 |
Angels v. Reds -135 |
Top |
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (974) versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Jose Suarez. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (53-58) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last ten contests with their 7-4 victory over the Angels in the opening game of this series. Los Angeles (56-58) has lost five straight games as well as nine of their last eleven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cincinnati may be five games under .500 but they are also just five games out of the second wild-card spot in the National League playoff race given their good play as of late. The Reds have won 5 of their last 6 games at home in the Great American Ballpark — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to DeSclafani who is 6-6 with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander had a 2.94 ERA over a nine-start span before giving up three runs in 5 innings of work in his last start against Atlanta. He still has not allowed more than three earned runs in six straight starts. DeSclafani has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.40 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251 in ten starts as compared to his 4.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road. Cincinnati has won 7 of their last 10 home games with DeSclafani pitching against a team with a losing record. The Reds have also won 5 of their last 7 games with DeSclafani facing an American League opponent. He faces a cold Angels lineup that struck out seventeen times last night. Los Angeles is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .204 batting average along with a .275 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .631 during that span. The Angels have also lost 4 straight road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, Los Angeles has lost 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Angels are just 27-32 on the road this season — and they have lost a decisive 46 of their last 66 road games against teams with a winning record a home. Furthermore, Los Angeles has lost 13 of their last 20 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 10 to 10.5. They counter with Suarez who is 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in nine starts. The left-handed rookie is not developing at the major league level as he was saddled with a 5.75 ERA in his five starts last month. Suarez has not been as effective on the road either where he has a 5.70 ERA in five starts along with a 1.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280. The Angels have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Suarez facing a team with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds have won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Year with the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (974) versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Jose Suarez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-19 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 10 |
Top |
4-7 |
Win
|
102 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the New York Yankees (974) listing both starting pitchers David Price and J.A. Happ. New York (71-39) has won four straight games after taking Game Three of their AL East series with the Red Sox by a 6-4 score in the second game of their double-header yesterday. Boston (59-54) has now lost seven straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. Additionally, Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the Red Sox have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. Additionally, Boston has played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 29 of their last 43 road games Over the Total when priced as the favorite of at least -110. They give the ball to Price who is 7-4 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty starts this season. The left-hander has allowed fewer runs at home in Fenway this year where he has a 3.46 ERA as opposed to his 4.13 ERA when he is pitching on the road. Price returns from paternity leave for this critical contest for the reeling Sox — but he has been part of the problem given his 6.52 ERA over his last four starts. And Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for Price — in his seven regular-season starts here since the start of the 2016 campaign, he has been saddled with an 8.59 ERA along with a 1.96 WHIP. Boston has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Price pitching in New York against the Yankees. He faces a hot-hitting Bronx Bombers team (despite being a M*A*S*H unit with their hitters) who are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .274 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .836 during that span. New York has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win by two runs or less — and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. The Yankees have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while the New York bullpen logged in 8 innings of work yesterday with them using reliever Chad Green as their opener, they have then played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total when their bullpen pitched at least 7 innings in their last game. Additionally, the Yankees have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Happ who is 8-6 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander is also returning from paternity leave but he has struggled in Yankee Stadium as well where he has a 5.64 ERA along with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in twelve starts as compared to his 4.62 ERA along with a nice 1.19 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average on the road. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Happ facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Red Sox team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 21-10-1 in their last 32 games against starting pitchers. And while Boston has played 29 of their last 43 games Over the Total with the number set at 10 or higher, the Yanks have played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the total set at 10 or more.
FINAL TAKE: New York has won the last four games of this series going back all the way to the idyllic last few days in July last Sunday night. Boston has played 29 of their last 46 games Over the Total when playing with at least double-revenge — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when having lost at least four straight games against their opponent. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the New York Yankees (974) listing both starting pitchers David Price and J.A. Happ. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-19 |
Mets -119 v. Pirates |
|
13-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (953) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: New York (54-56) has won eight of their last nine games with their 7-5 win over the Pirates yesterday. Pittsburgh (48-62) has lost eleven of their last thirteen games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 6 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have also won 4 straight games after allowing more than five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Syndergaard who is 7-5 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 3.78 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in ten starts as compared to his 4.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home. New York has won 7 of their last 9 road games with Syndergaard facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Pirates team that has lost 8 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 5 straight home games against right-handed starters. Pittsburgh has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Pirates have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 39 games after losing four or five of their last six games, Pittsburgh has lost 27 of these games. The Pirates stay at home where they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Musgrove who is 8-9 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in twenty-one starts (twenty-two games). The right-hander has not been as good at home where he owns a 4.52 ERA with a .249 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.92 ERA with a .245 opponent’s batting average on the road. And while he comes off a nice outing where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh has lost 16 of their last 21 games with Musgrove on the mound looking to follow up a Quality Start. Musgrove also struggles during day games where he has been saddled with a 5.22 ERA along with a 1.33 WHIP as opposing hitters enjoy a .283 batting average against him in six games.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Look for Syndergaard to be rejuvenated with his franchises’ decision to not deal him away at the trade deadline. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the New York Mets (953) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-19 |
Reds v. Braves UNDER 9 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (951) and the Atlanta Braves (952) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (66-46) has won four of their last five games after their 5-4 victory over the Reds in the second game of this series yesterday. Cincinnati (51-58) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. Cincinnati has played four straight games where neither team scored more than five runs — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where neither team plated more than five runners. The Reds have not committed an error in two straight games as well as in seven of their last eight contests — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 45-19-1 in Cincinnati’s last 55 games on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total with the number set at 8.5 to 10. They give the ball to Gray who is 6-6 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has been outstanding in his four starts since the All-Star Break where he has owns a 2.96 ERA while not allowing more than two earned runs in three of these starts. Gray has also pitched a bit better on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 3.16 mark while holding an opponent’s batting average of .201 in ten starts as opposed to his 3.75 ERA with a .236 opponent’s batting average at home. Gray’s teams have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total with him making the start — and the Reds have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Gray facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Braves lineup that has cooled off as of late as they are scoring only 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .257 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .801 in those games. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win. Atlanta stays at home where the Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games — and the Under is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Teheran who is 6-7 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The veteran right-hander comes off an outstanding month of July where he had a 1.48 ERA with 29 strikeouts and just 7 walks in 30 1/3 innings of work. Teheran has not allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts. He has done his best work at home this year where he owns a 2.26 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP in ten starts as compared to his 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in thirteen starts on the road. Teheran allowed only two earned runs in his last start in 6 2/3 innings at Washington on Tuesday — and the Braves have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total with Teheran pitching with just four days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is a decisive 35-16-1 in the Reds’ last 52 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. And in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 4 times. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (951) and the Atlanta Braves (952) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-03-19 |
Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
4-6 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (915) and the Baltimore Orioles (916) listing both starting pitchers Thomas Pannone and Dylan Bundy. THE SITUATION: Toronto (45-67) has won five straight games after winning the first two games of this series with their 5-2 victory over the Orioles last night. Baltimore (36-73) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning two straight games on the road against an AL East rival. And while Toronto has not allowed more than three runs in five straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games. The Blue Jays stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home — and they have also played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 10 to 10.5 range. Additionally, Toronto has played 21 of their last 30 games on the road Over the Total in the month of August. They give the ball to Pannone who is 2-4 with a 5.98 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings of work this season. The left-hander is getting the first shot to take over in the Blue Jays rotation for the recently traded Marcus Stroman. But while Pannone has a 4.50 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 7.89 ERA along with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 21 2/3 innings of work on the road. Toronto has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Pannone on the hill. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games at night Over the Total with Pannone making the start. He faces an Orioles team that has played 5 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 5-1-2 in their last 8 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and they have played 30 of their last 44 games Over the Total after losing two in a row. The Over is also 8-3-2 in the Orioles’ last 13 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Over is 11-5-2 in Baltimore’s last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against fellow AL East opponents. The Orioles have also played 38 of their last 62 games Over the Total when playing at night. They counter with Bundy who is 5-11 with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander is a gopher ball machine as he is allowing 2.1 Home Runs per 9 innings of work. Bundy has surrendered multiple home runs in seven of his starts this season. He also has fared worse at home in Camden Yards where he has a 6.16 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .299 in ten starts. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with Bundy facing a team with a losing record — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Bundy pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher. He faces a hot-hitting Blue Jays lineup that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .292 batting average along with a .366 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .943 during that span. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Orioles have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Bundy starting against the Blue Jays.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has now lost their last three meetings with the Blue Jays this season. The Orioles have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge on their mind. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (915) and the Baltimore Orioles (916) listing both starting pitchers Thomas Pannone and Dylan Bundy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-02-19 |
Angels v. Indians -1.5 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (967) listing just starting pitcher Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (63-45) has lost three of their last four games with their 7-1 loss to Houston yesterday. Los Angeles (56-54) has lost five of their last seven games after their 9-1 loss to Detroit on Wednesday. The Angels had originally announced Dillon Peters as the starter but have decided to use Taylor Cole as the opener before turning to Peters who will still serve as the bulk pitcher tonight. I love the Indians behind Clevinger tonight — so don’t list the Angels opener since, one way or another, Peters is getting the bulk of the action (and I don’t want to risk a last-minute change back to Peters — but if you mist list the Angels pitcher, list Cole).
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Cleveland has bounced-back to win 13 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Indians have also won 25 of their last 35 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. And in their last 14 games after allowing at least five runs, Cleveland has then won 10 of these games. The Indians stay at home at Progressive Field where they have still won 8 of their last 11 games. They have also won a decisive 16 of their last 20 games when priced as a favorite of at least -200. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander started the year strong in April before hitting disabled list for a few months — but he picked up right where he left off when returning to the starting rotation as he was 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 31 innings of work. The sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.96 and 2.39 moving forward. Clevinger comes off a strong effort where he allowed only one earned run in 7 innings of work at Kansas City — and the Indians have won 5 of their last 7 games with Clevinger following up a Quality Start. Clevinger has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 0.78 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .152 in four starts as opposed to his 5.47 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average on the road. Cleveland has won 9 of their last 11 games at home with Clevinger on the hill — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games with him facing the Angels. They also have won 6 of their last 7 games with Clevinger priced as a favorite above -150. He faces an Angels team that is hitting only .220 over their last seven games with a .299 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .719. Los Angeles has lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Angels have lost 12 of their last 15 games after loss by at least 8 runs. Los Angeles has also lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Angels go back on the road where they have lost 39 of their last 56 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Cole to open this game with his 1-1 record along with a 2.94 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 33 2/3 innings of work. Those numbers overrate the right-hander given the sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.32 and 3.97 moving forward. The bulk pitcher will be Peters who is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work which includes two starts in four appearances since being called up from Triple-A last month. The sabermetrics scream regression as well with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.09 and 5.44 moving forward. Peters was 2-2 with a 7.16 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in 27 2/3 innings of work which includes five starts for Miami last year. The left-hander has pitched well at home where he has a 2.77 ERA along with a 1.23 WHIP and .271 opponent’s batting average in 13 innings but those numbers skyrocket to an 11.05 ERA along with a .2.25 WHIP and .333 opponent’s batting average on the road in 14 2/3 innings which includes three starts. In his career 34 2/3 innings of work on the road which includes seven starts, Peters has been saddled with an 8.83 ERA along with a 2.11 WHIP. His teams have lost 6 of their last 7 games with him pitching with the Total set at 8.5 to 10. He faces a hot-hitting Indians lineup that has scored 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .265 batting average along with a .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .802. Cleveland has won 21 of their last 27 games against left-handed starting pitchers which includes them winning fourteen of their last seventeen games at home against lefty starters. The Indians have also won 20 of their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends mentioned above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, because the Indians have a bullpen WHIP of 1.23, the Angels fall into a historical “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 62% effective since 1997. Los Angeles has a slugging percentage of .442 this season — and American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .440 or higher with a bullpen WHIP in the 1.35 to 1.45 range (Angels bullpen: 1.38 WHIP) have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -135 to +165 range) in 76 of these last 123 situations where these conditions applied. With Cleveland priced above my -150 price threshold, lower the investment cost by taking the Indians minus the -1.5 Run-Line. The Indians have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their last 24 games while losing six of those games outright and winning just three of those games by one run (and the +300 units from those three wins is overwhelmed by the six money-line losses priced at -210, -175, -250, -170, -170, -170). 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Year with the Cleveland Indians (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (967) listing just starting pitcher Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-31-19 |
Cubs v. Cardinals +104 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (960) versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Kyle Hendricks. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (57-49) has won seven of their last nine games with their 2-1 victory over the Cubs. Chicago (56-50) has lost three of their last four contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has won 5 of their last 6 games after a win — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. And while the Cardinals have only scored three runs in each of their last three games, they have then won 10 straight home games after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. Furthermore, not only has St. Louis won 15 of their last 20 games in expected close contests where they were priced in the +/- 125 price range, they have also won 10 of their last 14 home games at Cardinals Busch Stadium when playing as the underdog. The Cardinals have also won 6 straight games against NL Central foes. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 7-10 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander has been outstanding in his three starts since the All-Star break as he has posted a 2.57 ERA in those 21 innings while striking out 12 batters and only walking three. Mikolas has also been much more effective at home where he owns a 2.15 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in ten starts as compared to his 6.75 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .326 opponent’s batting average on the road. St. Louis has won 13 of their last 18 home games with Mikolas on the mound — and they have won 8 of their last 10 home games with Mikolas facing a team with a winning record. Mikolas loves to face Chicago against whom he has a 3-1 record along with a 1.88 ERA in eight games which includes six starts. He faces a cold Cubs lineup that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .196 batting average along with a .256 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .616 during that span. Chicago has lost 16 of their last 23 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Chicago has lost 19 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 20 road games against NL Central rivals, the Cubs have lost 15 of these games. They counter with Hendricks who is 7-8 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in nineteen starts. But the sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.39 and 4.34 moving forward. And the right-hander does his best pitching at home where he has a 1.89 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 — but those numbers rise to a 4.91 ERA along with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in his ten starts on the road. Chicago has lost 4 straight road games with Hendricks on the mound. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games based on the strength of an OPS of .807 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has won 13 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning six of their last eight home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals have also won their last 4 opportunities to host the Cubs. 25* MLB ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (960) versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Kyle Hendricks. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-31-19 |
Astros v. Indians UNDER 10 |
|
4-10 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (967) and the Cleveland Indians (968) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Zack Plesac. THE SITUATION: Houston (69-39) won the opening game of this series last night with their 2-0 victory over the Indians. Cleveland (62-44) has lost their last two games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, Houston has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total as a money-line favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. Houston has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Urquidy who is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in four starts this season. The promising rookie has struck out 15 batters while surrendering only six hits in his last two starts. He also has a 2.79 ERA in his two starts on the road. While the sample size is small, the sabermetrics are very encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.29 and 2.93 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. He faces an Indians team that has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 35-15-1 in Cleveland’s last 51 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Indians have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a defeat by two runs or less. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, Cleveland has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 range — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Indians have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Zach Plesac who is 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been very tough at home at Progressive Field where he enjoys a 2.86 ERA along with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in five starts. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Plesac on the mound. He faces an Astros lineup that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Indians have played 15 of the last 17 games Under the Total when motivated to avenge a loss where they did not score more than one run. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (967) and the Cleveland Indians (968) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Zack Plesac. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-30-19 |
Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
101 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Chicago (56-49) begins this series coming off an 11-4 win at Milwaukee on Sunday. St. Louis (56-49) has lost their last two games after suffering a 6-2 loss at home to Houston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 8 straight games Under the Total after an off day. The Cubs stay on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games. Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Darvish who is 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has found his control finally as he has walked only two batters over his last three starts spanning 18 innings of work. Darvish has a 2.00 ERA over that span while striking out 21 batters. He has also been more effective on the road where he owns a 4.07 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in ten starts as compared to his 4.98 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Darvish facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 20 of their last 27 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 15-5-1 in St. Louis’ last 21 games after a loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games after failing to score more than two runs — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after an off day. They counter with Wainwright who is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been awful on the road where he has a 7.16 ERA along with a 1.61 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .299 — but he has been outstanding at home where he enjoys a 2.33 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average in nine starts. The Under is 6-2-1 in St. Louis’ last 9 home games with Wainwright on the hill — and the Under is 21-8-3 in their last 32 home games with Wainwright facing a team with a winning record. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 home games with Wainwright facing the Cubs. He faces a Chicago lineup that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 batting average along with a .238 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .596 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Cardinals’ Busch Stadium. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-30-19 |
Rays v. Red Sox -129 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-129 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (914) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (913) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-48) won the first three games in their weekend series with the Yankees — outscoring the Bronx Bombers by a 38-13 score in those games — before losing Game Four Sunday night by a 9-6 score despite being a money-line favorite priced in the -170 range. Tampa Bay (60-48) has won three of their last four games after their 10-9 win in Toronto on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 5 straight games after a loss — and they have 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss where they were a home favorite priced at least at -150. The Red Sox have also won 4 of their last 5 games after an off day — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Boston stays at home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games. They give then all to Price who is 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander is averaging 10.43 strikeouts per 9 innings while striking out 28% of the batters he has faced — both of those numbers are careers highs. Price comes off a solid effort where he allowed three earned runs in 6 innings of work at Tampa Bay — and the Red Sox have won a decisive 41 of their last 56 games with Price following up a Quality Start. Price has also been much more effective at home where he owns a 2.89 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in seven starts as compared to his 4.13 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average on the road. Boston has won 20 of their last 24 games at home with Price pitching when favored at a -110 or higher price. He faces a Rays team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has lost 5 of their last 7 games are allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Rays have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after an off day — and they have lost 15 of their last 19 games on the road after a day off. They stay on the road where they have lost 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also lost 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 10 or higher. Tampa Bay has also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Morton who is 12-3 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.52 and 3.23 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has been a bit more effective at home where he owns a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 as opposed to his 1.11 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts at home. The Rays have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Morton on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: Morton faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .337 batting average, .373 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.005 during that span. Look for Price to outpitch Morton at home in Fenway Park where he has been remarkably productive as of late. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (914) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (913) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-29-19 |
Blue Jays v. Royals -110 |
Top |
7-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (960) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (959) listing both starting pitchers Brad Keller and Thomas Pannone. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (40-67) snapped a three-game losing streak yesterday with their 9-6 win at Cleveland yesterday. Toronto (40-67) has lost three of their last four games with their 10-9 loss to Tampa Bay yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Kansas City has won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Royals return home where they have won 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 42 home games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range, Kansas City has won 26 of these contests. They give the ball to Keller who is 7-9 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in twenty-two starts this season. The 23-year-old right-hander has found his groove with a 1.33 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP over his last four starts. Keller does not strike out many batters — but his nasty sinker induces ground balls in 52.8% of the batted balls he allows into play. Opposing hitters are also generating fly balls in just 25.7% of the batted balls he allows into play which is why he is giving up only 0.68 Home Runs per 9 innings of work. Keller has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.29 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in eight starts as compared to his 4.39 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average of .272 when on the road. The Royals have won 7 of their last 8 home games with Keller facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Blue Jays team that is hitting just .211 over their last seven games along with a .279 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .684 in those games. Toronto has lost 34 of their last 50 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays have lost 13 of their last 16 games after a loss by just one run. Toronto has also lost a decisive 35 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 24 of their last 29 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. The Blue Jays bullpen has logged-in 13 1/3 innings of work over their last two games — and they have lost 37 of their last 45 games after their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Toronto goes back on the road after a six-game homestand — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 games after playing at least their last four games at home. The Blue Jays have also lost 14 of their last 21 road games with the Total set at least at 10. They counter with Pannone who is 2-4 with a 6.39 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 43 2/3 innings of work this season. The left-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.77 ERA along with a 1.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in 15 2/3 innings of work. Toronto has lost 4 of their last 5 games when Pannone is making the start on the road on grass away from the artificial turf at the Rogers Centre. He faces a Royals team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Pannone has made three starts this season as an opener — he has pitched 2 2/3, 2 1/3 and 4 1/3 innings in those appearances so the Blue Jays’ bullpen will likely be asked to pitch at least half this game tonight. Toronto’s pen has a 4.40 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP over their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City will be looking to avenge an 11-4 loss to the Blue Jays back on July 1st — and they have won 14 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. The Royals have also won 10 of their last 14 opportunities to host Toronto in Kauffman Stadium. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (960) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (959) listing both starting pitchers Brad Keller and Thomas Pannone. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-29-19 |
Braves v. Nationals -142 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (952) versus the Atlanta Braves (951) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Dallas Kuechel. THE SITUATION: Washington (56-49) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 11-4 win against the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday. Atlanta (62-44) has lost three of their last five games after their 9-4 loss at Philadelphia yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Washington has played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then won 13 of their last 20 games after playing their last two games Over the Total. The Nationals stay at home where they have won 14 of their last 20 games — and they have won 14 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Washington has also won 19 of their last 26 games against fellow NL East opponents — and they have won 9 of their last 11 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Corbin who is 8-5 with a 3.25 ERA and a WHIP of 1.15 in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.68 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in ten starts. The Nationals have won 6 straight home games with Corbin on the mound. He comes off six scoreless innings of work in his last start which was at home against the Rockies — and Washington has won 4 of their last 5 games with Corbin looking to follow up a Quality Start. Atlanta does not hit the ball well on the road — they have a .249 batting average with a .317 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .746 away from Sun Trust Field. The Braves have lost 13 of their last 19 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 road games when priced as an underdog in that +125 to +175 range. They counter with Keuchel who is 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in seven starts this season for Atlanta. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.37 and 3.94 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 4.24 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in four starts. Keuchel’s teams have lost 3 of their last 4 games on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. He faces a hot-hitting Nationals team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .281 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .850 over that span. Washington has won 5 of their last 7 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Betting on Atlanta when playing in Nationals Park where they have lost 33 of their last 47 games against Washington. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (952) versus the Atlanta Braves (951) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Dallas Kuechel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-28-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 |
Top |
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Boston won the third game of this series on Saturday with their 9-5 victory. New York has lost the first three games of this series — and they have lost four of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have now surrendered 59 runs in their last seven games. The Over is now 23-8-1 in their last 30 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Bronx Bombers have seen the Over go 42-13-2 of their last 57 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 25-5-1 in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to German who is 12-2 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in sixteen starts (seventeen games) this season. The right-hander has done his best work at home in Yankee Stadium where he owns a 2.13 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 — but those numbers rise to a 5.66 mark on the road with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in nine starts. The Over is 8-2-1 in New York’s last 11 road games with German on the hill — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games with German facing a team with a winning record. He faces a red hot Red Sox lineup that has scored 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .315 batting average along with a .391 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .957 during that span. Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers which includes them playing four of their last five games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher at home in Fenway Park. The Red Sox have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitcher with a WHIP no higher than 1.15. Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Sale who is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has not been as effective at home with the Green Monster in left-field where he has a 4.26 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts as compared to his 3.78 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 10-4-2 in Boston’s last 16 home games with Sale on the mound. Sales faces a New York team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .316 batting average along with a .371 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .937 over that span. The Yankees have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and the Over is also 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams when playing in Fenway Park. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-28-19 |
Pirates v. Mets -117 |
|
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
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At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (906) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Chris Archer. THE SITUATION: New York (49-55) has won three straight games — as well as five of their last seven games — with their 3-0 victory over the Pirates in the second game of this series. Pittsburgh (46-58) has lost seven straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. This team has also won 8 of their last 11 games after a game where neither team scored more than four runs. The Mets have also won 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have won 21 of their last 29 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Vargas who is 5-5 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in seventeen starts (eighteen games). The left-hander comes off an outstanding effort at home where he did not allow an earned run in six innings of work against the Padres — and New York has won 7 of their last 9 games with Vargas following up a Quality Start. Vargas has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.68 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP an opponent's batting average of .201 in seven starts (eight games) as opposed to his 5.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mets have won 5 straight games at home with Vargas on the hill. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .229 batting average along with a .286 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .623 over that span. Pittsburgh has not scored more than three runs in three straight games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. The Pirates have also lost 7 of their last 9 games after losing at least five straight games. Pittsburgh has also lost 5 straight games after dropping the first two games in a series. The Pirates have struggled on the road where they have lost 20 of their last 27 games — and they have lost 17 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Archer who is 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been a disaster when pitching on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.91 ERA along with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in eight starts. Pittsburgh has lost 10 of their last 13 games on the road with Archer on the hill. He faces a Mets team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have lost 26 of their last 37 games when playing with at least double-revenge. 20* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (906) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Chris Archer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-27-19 |
Cubs v. Brewers -121 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (960) versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (59-50) has won two straight games — as well as seven of their last ten contests — with their 3-2 comeback victory over the Cubs last night. Chicago (55-48) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 7 of their last 9 games after a one-run victory over a fellow NL Central rival. This victory came on the heels of their 5-4 victory over the Reds on Thursday — and not only have then won 21 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by no more than two runs but they have also won 8 straight games after winning their last two games by just one run. The Brewers have also won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And while Milwaukee managed only four hits last night, they have then won 13 of their last 16 games at home after having no more than four hits in their last game. The Brewers will be playing their fifth straight game at home tonight — and they have won 20 of their last 27 games after playing their last four games at home. Milwaukee has also won 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Anderson who is 5-2 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fifteen starts (eighteen games). The right-hander has not lost since June 21st — and he has not surrendered more than two runs in six straight starts. Anderson has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.81 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in nine starts (twelve games). The Brewers have won 26 of their last 43 home games with Anderson pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .223 batting average along with a .266 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .650 during that span. Chicago has lost 14 of their last 20 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while their bullpen blew a save last night by allowing two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning, they have then lost 11 of their last 12 games after blowing a save in their last game. The Cubs have lost 19 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 17 road games against NL Central foes. Chicago has also lost 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog. They counter with Lester who is 9-6 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander has struggled as of late having allowed at least four runs in six of his last twelve starts. Lester once had an ERA of 1.16 but his slide has corresponded with his sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.15 and 4.11 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Lester has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.95 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP — but he sees those numbers rise to a 5.09 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in eight starts on the road. Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Lester on the hill — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 road games with Lester pitching as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and they have won 8 of their last 10 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Brewers have also won 7 of their last 9 opportunities to host the Cubs in Miller Park. 25* MLB National League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (960) versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-27-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 |
|
5-9 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Boston (58-47) has won four of their last five games with their 10-5 victory over the Yankees last night. New York (66-37) has not only lost the first two games of this series by also four of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have now surrendered 50 runs in their last six games — and their bullpen has logged in 14 1/3 innings of work over their last three games. New York has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing three straight games where their bullpen pitched at least 4 innings. The Over is 22-8-1 in their last 30 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Bronx Bombers have played 41 of their last 54 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 24-5-1 in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.72 and 4.88 respectively moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. The left-hander has also struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.59 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and .299 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 2.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .214 opponent’s batting average at home. New York has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Sabathia on the hill. He faces a Red Sox lineup that has scored 8.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .313 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .979 during that span. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Red Sox have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by at least eight runs. Boston has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Rodriguez who is 12-4 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has not been as effective in day games where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.66 mark with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280. Boston has played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total with Rodriguez pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. Rodriguez comes off 7 scoreless innings of work at Tampa Bay in his last effort — but the Red Sox have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Rodriguez looking to follow up a Quality Start. New York is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .326 batting average along with a .384 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .945 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total wit the number set at 10 or higher — and Boston has played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total with the number set at 11 or higher. The Over is also 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams when playing in Fenway Park. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon FS1-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-19 |
Tigers v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Seattle Mariners (928) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Norris and Yusei Kikuchi. THE SITUATION: Seattle (43-63) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series by a 10-2 score. Detroit (30-68) has lost their last three games as well as nine of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 24-9-3 in the Mariners’ last 36 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. Furthermore, the Over is 33-16-2 in Seattle’s last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 27-13-3 in the Mariners’ last 43 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Kikuchi who is 4-7 with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has seen his numbers decline significantly in the grind of his first MLB season after coming over from Japan — and he has not been able to adapt to the book that teams have quickly written about his stuff. Over his last ten starts, Kikuchi is 1-6 with a 7.85 ERA. He also sees his ERA rise to a 5.79 mark in his ten starts at home. The Over is 8-1-1 in Seattle’s last 10 home games with Kikuchi on the hill — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Kikuchi facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Tigers team that loves to face left-handed pitching. Detroit scores only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game this season with a .232 batting average along with a .286 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .667 — but those hitting splits rise to a .259 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .774 against left-handed starting pitchers which translates into them scoring a healthy 5.4 Runs-Per-Game against those lefties. The Over is 12-4-1 in the Tigers’ last 17 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while Detroit has only scored four combined runs in their last three games, they have then played 31 of their last 46 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. The Over is also 10-2-1 in the Tigers’ last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Norris who is 2-8 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seventeen starts (twenty games). The left-hander comes off a rain-shortened start where he allowed only one run at home against Toronto — but Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when Norris is following up a start where he allowed only one earned run. Norris has a 4.62 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average at home — yet those numbers rise significantly to a 5.28 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in his ten starts (twelve games) on the road. The Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Norris on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle is swinging hot bats right now as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .277 with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .791 over that span. The Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams when playing in Safeco Park. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Seattle Mariners (928) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Norris and Yusei Kikuchi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 11 |
|
5-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (917) and the Boston Red Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Andrew Cashner. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-47) has won three of their last four games after their 19-3 pounding of the Yankees last night. New York (66-36) has now lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have surrendered 40 runs in their last five games — and their bullpen has logged in 10 1/3 innings of work over their last two games. New York has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after playing two games where their bullpen pitched at least 9 combined innings. The Over is 21-8-1 in their last 30 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Bronx Bombers have played 40 of their last 53 games on the road — and the Over is 23-5-1 in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-5 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in seventeen starts. But the left-hander has struggled on the road where he owns a 4.78 ERA along with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .314 in seven starts. The Yankees have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Paxton on the hill. Paxton has struggled as of late with his command having issued 20 walks in his last 44 innings of work — and that has translated into a 5.52 ERA over that span. That likely spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E against this Red Sox team that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .291 batting average along with a .342 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .880 over that span. The Over is also 13-6-1 in Boston’s last 20 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-8-1 in their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Red Sox have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by at least eight runs. Boston has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Cashner who is 9-5 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has seen his WHIP and opponent’s batting average rise to 1.33 and .263 marks at home as compared to his 1.18 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average on the road. This is his third start in a Red Sox uniform since being traded from Baltimore — and he has a 7.20 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in Fenway Park in 10 innings of work this year. Cashier also has a 6.19 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP in 16 innings of work against the Yankees this season. New York is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .323 batting average along with a .384 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .956 over that span. The Over is 21-8-1 in the Yanks’ last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 35-14-2 in their last 51 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total wit the number set at 10 or higher — and Boston has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the number set at 11 or higher. The Over is also 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Fenway Park. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (917) and the Boston Red Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Andrew Cashner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-25-19 |
Twins v. White Sox +1.5 |
Top |
10-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (960) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (959) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Chicago (45-54) begins this series having lost two straight games after their 2-0 loss to Miami yesterday. Minnesota (61-40) has lost two straight games — as well as seven of their last ten contests — with their 10-7 loss at home to the New York Yankees on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Twins have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Minnesota has been playing a number of high scoring games as of late — they have scored and allowed at least six runs in each of their last four games. The Twins have then lost 8 of their last 11 games after scoring and allowing at least six runs in their last three games — and they have lost 23 of their last 29 games after seeing at least 12 combined runs scored in four straight contests. Now after completing a disappointing nine-game homestand, Minnesota goes back on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after playing at least five straight games at home. They give the ball to Berrios who is 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twenty starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.38 and 4.46 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home in Target Field where he enjoys a 2.10 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in nine starts. But in his eleven starts on the road, Berrios owns a 3.72 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Berrios had a 3.03 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP at home but a 4.85 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road. The Twins have lost 25 of their last 37 road games with Berrios making the start. Berrios has also been not quite as successful under the lights given his 3.03 ERA and 1.22 WHIP instigated by opposing hitters owning a .259 batting average against him as opposed to his .210 opposing batting average during day games. Berrios may be also starting to tire in the grind of being in the regular rotation — he has not pitched more than 5 2/3 innings in three straight starts. He also comes off 113 pitches in his last effort at home against the A’s which was his highest pitch count of the season. Tellingly, Berrios carried a 4.15 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average in the second half of the season after boasting a 3.68 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in the first half. Minnesota has also lost 17 of their last 20 games on the road with Berrios pitching in the second half of the season. Chicago has bounced-back to won 16 of their last 26 games after losing three of the last four games. The White Sox have just a .221 On-Base Percentage over their last three games — but they have won 7 of their last 8 games after enduring a stretch where they did not have an On-Base Percentage higher than .260. The White Sox stay at home where they have won a decisive 15 of their last 20 home games against AL Central rivals. Chicago has also won 19 of their last 30 games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Giolito who is 11-4 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in nineteen starts. After losing his previous two starts, the right-hander showed better command with his fastball in his last effort at Tampa Bay where he allowed only one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. The White Sox have won 7 of their last 8 games with Giolito following up a Quality Start. Giolito owns an exceptional 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his breakout season this year. A shortened arm action in his delivery has helped him throw more strikes this season. Chicago has also won 6 of their last 7 games at home with Giolito on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox bullpen has been on fire as of late — they have not allowed an earned run in their last five games spanning 11 1/3 innings of work. That helps place Chicago into a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 70% effective since 1997. Giolito averages 7.1 strikeouts per start — and home underdogs using a starting pitcher who averages at least 5.0 strikeouts per start while having a bullpen that has an ERA of 1.50 or lower in their last five games have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 59 of these last 84 situations (when priced in the +215 to -130 money-line range). 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (960) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (959) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-24-19 |
Indians -126 v. Blue Jays |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (917) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (918) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Marcus Stroman. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (58-41) had won eight of their last nine games before losing the second game of this series last night in 10 innings by a 2-1 score against the Blue Jays. Toronto (38-64) snapped a two-game losing streak.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland has bounced-back to win 11 of their last 13 games after a loss — and they have won 25 of their last 32 games after a defeat by just one run. The Indians have also won 21 of their last 27 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have still won 7 of their last 8 games as road warriors. They give the ball to Bieber who is 9-3 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in twenty starts (twenty-one games). The sabermetrics indicate that he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.32 and 3.14 moving forward. Bieber is enjoying a breakout season because he is relying on his outstanding command to throw more pitches outside the strike zone. Bieber threw 48% of his pitches in the strike zone last year — and that mark has lowered to just 38.4% of pitches in the zone this season. Yet Bieber strike rate in 67.3% of his pitches last year has only lowered to a 65.2% mark this year as he has successfully coaxed opposing hitters to reach for these pitches outside the zone. Bieber is walking only 5.6% of the batters he has faced — and he owns an outstanding K%-BB% of 25.5%. The right-hander has been at his best on the road where he owns a 3.19 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .189 in nine starts (ten games) as compared to his 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average at home. The Indians have won 12 of their last 15 road games with Bieber on the hill — and they have also won 7 of their last 8 road games with Bieber facing a team with a losing record. He faces a slumping Blue Jays lineup that is hitting only .220 over their last seven games with a .292 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .674 over that span. Toronto has lost 13 of their last 18 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 37 of their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Blue Jays have also lost 8 of their last 10 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, Toronto has lost 30 of their last 42 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Jays’ bullpen has logged in 9 1/3 innings of work in their last two games, they have then lost a decisive 35 of their last 43 games when their bullpen pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. They counter with Stroman who is 6-10 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.41 and 4.07 moving forward. Stroman is not a strikeout pitcher — he has struck out only 19.1% of the batters he has faced this season. Instead, the right-hander induces ground balls in 57.1% of the batted balls he allows into play. That is problematic with this Blue Jays’ infield which is at the bottom rung in fielding metrics — and playing on astroturf at home does not help matters. Perhaps that is why Stroman sees his ERA rise to a 3.47 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP in eleven starts at home as compared to his 2.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road — and perhaps this is also why playoff contenders are eager to trade for him. Toronto has lost 16 of their last 24 home games at night with Stroman on the mound. He faces an Indians lineup that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .281 batting average along with a .342 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .798. Cleveland has also won 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Blue Jays have lost 5 of their last 7 games with Stroman pitching against the Indians. Cleveland has still won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams — and they have won 44 of the last 69 meetings between these two teams when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* MLB American League Road Warrior of the Year with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (917) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (918) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Marcus Stroman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-24-19 |
Orioles v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (923) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (924) listing both starting pitchers John Means and Taylor Clarke. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (31-68) has won two of their last three games after their 7-2 victory over the Diamondbacks in the second game of this series. Arizona (51-50) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-0-1 in the Orioles’ last 4 games after a win — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 3-0-2 in Baltimore’s last 5 road games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Means who is 8-5 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twenty appearances which include sixteen starts. The sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.86 and 5.35 respectively moving forward. Means has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.52 mark along with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eight games (six starts) as opposes to his 2.56 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average in twelve games (ten starts) at home. The Orioles have played 5 straight games Over the Total with Means on the mound. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last five contests with a .292 batting average along with a .380 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .871 in those games. The Over is 6-0-1 in Arizona’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 3-0-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 5 games at home in Chase Field. They counter with Clarke who is 2-3 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in ten starts (eleven games). The right-hander has been even worse at home where his ERA rises to a 7.56 mark along with a 1.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .309 in four starts. Additionally, Arizona has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Clarke making the start. The Orioles are hitting better as of late as they are averaging 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .296 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .873 in those game.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is now 4-1-3 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams when they are playing in Arizona. Expect another high scoring game. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (923) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (924) listing both starting pitchers John Means and Taylor Clarke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-23-19 |
Padres v. Mets +1.5 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Mets (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Chris Paddack. THE SITUATION: New York (45-54) has lost three of their last four games after suffering a 12-inning 3-2 loss in San Francisco on Sunday. San Diego (47-52) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 5-1 win in Chicago against the Cubs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Padres have lost 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least four runs — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. San Diego has also lost 5 straight opening games t a new series. They also have lost 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. The Padres stay on the road where they have lost 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. San Diego has also lost 5 of their last 6 road games when priced as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This is also a team that has lost a decisive 31 of their last 41 games in the month of July. They give the ball to Paddack who is 6-4 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.77 and 3.89 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Paddack’s great numbers this season are due in large measure to his pitching in the spacious Petco Park for his home games where he enjoys a 2.36 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .166. But in his nine starts on the road, the right-hander sees his numbers rise to a 3.00 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in nine starts. There are worrisome signs — most notably Paddack’s hard-hit rate of 44.6% for the balls he is allowing into play. That helps explain why he has allowed thirteen gopher balls while allowing 1.30 home runs per 9 innings of work. The Mets are averaging 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has won 8 of their last 13 games after a game where neither team scored more than three runs. The Mets return home where they have under-the-radar won 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Vargas who is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP this season in sixteen games (seventeen starts). The left-hander has been tough at home where he owns a 3.15 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in six starts (seven games) as opposed to his 5.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average of .246 on the road. New York has won 4 straight home games with Vargas facing a team with a losing record. And while Vargas comes off a solid start where he allowed three earned runs in 6 innings of work, the Mets have won 6 of their last 8 games with Vargas following up a Quality Start. He faces a Padres team that struggles against left-handed pitching. San Diego is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starters with a .231 batting average along with a .305 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .709 — and they have lost a decisive 42 of their last 57 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking for this play. Because the Padres’ bullpen has an ERA of 4.82 this season, they fall into a historical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 75% effective since 1997. National League road favorites with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher with an On-Base Percentage below .310 for the season (San Diego: .304 On-base Percentage) have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 63 of their last 84 situations (priced in the +115 to +160 range) where these conditions applied. The Mets have lost their last three games by just one run — so taking the +1.5 Run-Line is my preferred play with that price below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB National League Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the New York Mets (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Chris Paddack. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-22-19 |
Reds v. Brewers -111 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-111 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (906) versus the Cincinnati Reds (905) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (53-48) has won two straight games — as well as five of their last six contests — with their 7-4 win at Arizona yesterday. Cincinnati (44-53) has lost five of their last six games after their 3-1 loss to St. Louis on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee should continue to build off their recent momentum as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers have also won 28 of their last 38 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Milwaukee has won 15 of their last 22 home games when priced in the +125 to -125 price range — and they have won 17 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. And while the Brewers’ bullpen has been busy in their last two games by pitching 6 and 5 innings in each of their last two games, they have then won 13 of their last 14 games after their bullpen pitched at least 5 innings in two straight games. They give the ball to Anderson who is 5-2 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in fourteen starts (nineteen appearances). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.88 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in eight starts (eleven appearances). Milwaukee has won 14 of their last 23 home games with Anderson pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a Reds team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has lost 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Reds have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by just one run to an NL Central division rival. And while Cincinnati defeated the Cardinals on Saturday by a 3-2 score, they have then lost 9 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games where they did not score or allow more than three runs in two straight contests. The Reds go back on the road where they have lost 8 of their last 10 games — and they have lost 35 of their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Cincinnati has also lost 19 of their last 26 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They also have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gray who is 5-6 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in nineteen starts. Gray’s teams have lost 16 of their last 20 games on the road when he is pitching as a money-line underdog. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .873 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is motivated to avenge three straight losses that they suffered against the Reds in their four-game series over in the first week of July. The Brewers have won 14 of their last 17 games at home when playing with at least double revenge. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (906) versus the Cincinnati Reds (905) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-22-19 |
Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8.5 |
Top |
9-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (911) and the Tampa Bay Rays (912) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Jalen Beeks. THE SITUATION: Boston (54-46) has lost two of their last three games with their 5-0 loss at Baltimore yesterday. Tampa Bay (57-45) snapped a five-game losing streak yesterday with their 4-2 win against the Chicago White Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox were shut out for the first time in eighty-one games — and they had bashed at least one home run in eleven straight games before yesterday. Boston has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Red Sox stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 road games Over the Total when priced as the favorite at -125 or higher. The Over is also 13-3-1 in Boston’s last 17 games when playing on artificial turf. And in their last 51 opening games to a new series, the Over is 34-15-2. They give the ball to Rodriguez who is 11-4 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty starts. The left-hander has pitched his best at home where he owns a 3.84 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 4.91 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average in ten starts on the road. Rodriguez also has a 7.11 ERA in four career starts at Tropicana Field. The Red Sox have lady 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with Rodriguez on the hill. And while Rodriguez comes off a strong effort where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work at home against Toronto, Boston has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Rodriguez following up a Quality Start in his last effort. Furthermore, the Red Sox have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Rodriguez pitching at night. Tampa Bay has seen the Over go 8-2-3 in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Over is also 3-0-2 in the Rays’ last 5 opening games to a new series. They counter with Beeks who is 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been used exclusively as a bulk inning pitcher out of the bullpen — but he will be making his first official start in this game tonight. I am not sure I buy into the “opener” craze that teams like Tampa Bay have embraced (while conceding the opener can mess with the opposing team’s starting lineup when a pitcher throwing with the other hand comes in to pitch in the 2nd inning). That said, there is a reason that the Rays’ coaching staff has been reluctant to have Beeks open games until now. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.65 moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Because Beeks does not have much of a fastball, he needs all four of his pitches working to be effective. Beeks has not been as successful when pitching at home where he owns a 3.77 ERA along with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 31 innings of work as opposed to his 1.87 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in 33 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a Red Sox lineup that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 6-1 loss at home to Tampa Bay back on June 9th. The Red Sox have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they scored only one run. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total when facing off in Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (911) and the Tampa Bay Rays (912) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Jalen Beeks. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-21-19 |
Nationals v. Braves UNDER 11 |
|
1-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Tyson Ross and Kevin Gausman. THE SITUATION: Washington (52-45) has won two of their last three games with their 5-3 victory over the Braves last night. Atlanta (59-41) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 5 runs in their last game. This is the seventh straight game on the road for Washington — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games after playing their previous six games on the road. The Nationals have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record. They have called up Ross who is an ugly 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA in 14 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen. There is little to sugarcoat the 26-year-old numbers this year other to say that the sabermetrics do call for that ERA to cut in half moving forward. The Nationals have played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with Ross making the start in previous seasons as an underdog. The Total is set in the 11 range in large part because Ross is making the start. But he is still facing a slumping Braves lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .237 batting average along with a .311 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668 in those contests. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games after a loss — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Under is also 4-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 6 games at home. They counter with Gausman who is 2-5 with a 6.21 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in thirteen starts. The veteran right-hander has come off the disabled list after dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot that could have contributed to his poor start. Gausman looked good in a rehab start on Tuesday as he struck out ten batters in 7 innings of work while giving up only two runs. He should pitch closer to the form he displayed last season after being traded to the Braves from Baltimore where he had five wins with five Quality Starts in ten appearances with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. His teams have played 13 of their last 20 home games with him making the start as a money-line favorite priced at least -150. He faces a Nationals team that has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Nationals have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the month of July. Let's trust the team trends in this game — especially with the high total installed for this contest. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Tyson Ross and Kevin Gausman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-21-19 |
A's v. Twins UNDER 10.5 |
|
6-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (973) and the Minnesota Twins (974) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Mengden and Michael Pineda. THE SITUATION: Oakland (57-42) has won two straight games — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 5-4 victory yesterday. Minnesota (59-38) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Oakland stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. They give the ball to Mengden who is 5-1 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in seven starts (nine games). The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 1.11 WHIP along with a .238 opponent’s batting average in three starts (four games). The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Mengden pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher. Mengden has also been more effective for day games where he has a 3.68 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in three starts (four games). He faces a cold Twins lineup that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .253 batting average along with a .320 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .788 over that span. Minnesota has played 6 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have also played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 10 to 10.5. Minnesota has also played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Pineda who is 6-5 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander entered the season returning from Tommy John surgery — so the first half of the season was expected to be a work in progress. Hitting the disabled list in late May for knee tendinitis did not help matters. Over his last six starts, Pineda has a 2.60 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP while only allowed one earned run in five of those outings — and he has a 1.50 and a 0.94 WHIP while striking out 20 batters in 18 innings of work in his last three outings as things seem to be coming together for the 30-year-old. Remember, Pineda combined a 24.8% strikeout rate for the batters he faced from 2015 through 2017 before his elbow injury while inducing ground balls in 49.2% of the batted balls he allowed into play and walking only 5.2% of the batters he faced over that three-year period. Pineda’s velocity on his fastball has finally returned to what it was before his Tommy John surgery — so don’t be surprised if Pineda is dominant during the second half of this season for this powerful Twins lineup. He has done his best work at home this season where he enjoys a 3.98 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 4.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average on the road. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games with Pineda facing a team with a losing record. Pineda allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in his last outing against the Mets — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Twins’ last 5 games when he is following up a Quality Start. He faces a Minnesota team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota’s Target Field. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (973) and the Minnesota Twins (974) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Mengden and Michael Pineda. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-21-19 |
Rockies v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 |
Top |
8-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: New York (64-33) has won five straight games with their 11-5 victory over the Rockies yesterday. Colorado (46-52) has lost six straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after a win by at least four runs — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a victory. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Bronx Bombers last 9 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The New York bullpen is getting it done as of late after not surrendering an earned run again last night. The Yanks’ bullpen has a sparkling 0.43 ERA over their last five games with a 0.76 WHIP while giving up just one earned run over that span consisting of 21 innings of work. New York has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run — and they have played 40 of their last 58 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or better over their last five games. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-4 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in sixteen starts this season. The left-hander has allowed only five earned runs in three starts this month for a nifty 2.50 ERA. Paxton has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.22 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in nine starts. Paxton’s teams have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with him taking the mound in the month of July. He should fare well against this Rockies team that is scoring only 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .281 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .697. Colorado has played 6 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Rockies have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Colorado has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing at least four straight games. The Rockies stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, Colorado has played 22 of their last 30 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. And the Under is 28-11-3 in their last 42 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Marquez who is 8-5 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a bad outing in his last start against the Giants where he allowed 11 earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work at home. That start was at home in Coors Field where he is saddled with a 7.07 ERA along with a 1.70 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .336 — but he has been much better at home where enjoys a 3.33 ERA along with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in ten starts. The Under is 7-3-1 in Colorado’s last 11 road games with Marquez facing a team with a winning record. The sabermetrics are encouraging for Marquez with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 3.63 moving forward. The Rockies have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total with Marquez pitching after a loss.
FINAL TAKE: The Colorado bullpen has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over the last two days in the Bronx — but they have then played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings in their last two games. 25* MLB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-19 |
Nationals v. Braves UNDER 10 |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
101 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (59-40) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 4-3 victory over the Nationals. Washington (51-45) has now lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves were a small money-line underdog yesterday with Julio Teheran facing off against Patrick Corbin — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after delivering an upset victory as a home underdog. The Under is also now 6-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 9 games at home — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against NL East opponents. The Braves have also played 9 of their last 13 games in the month of July Under the Total. They give the ball to Soroka who is 10-1 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in sixteen starts. The rookie phenom has given up more than two runs only four times in those sixteen starts. The right-hander’s formula for success has been to limit gopher balls which is a tantalizing quality in this current home run obsessed era of launch angles. Soroka has given up only four home runs this year for a microscopic 0.38 Home Runs Allowed per 9 inning rate. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Soroka facing a team with a winning record — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total with him starting as the favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. He faces a Nationals team that has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Washington has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss. The Nationals have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of July — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow NL East opponents. This is Washington’s seventh straight game on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games after playing their previous four games Under the Total. The Nationals have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road overall. They counter with Sanchez who is 5-6 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. The veteran right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in fourteen of those starts — and he is 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his last five starts. The former Brave has a 3.00 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this year. And Sanchez has been a bit more effective on the road where he owns a 3.67 ERA with a .236 batting average in nine starts as opposed to his 3.76 ERA and .239 opponent’s batting average at home. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sanchez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Braves lineup that has cooled off significantly this month — they are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .244 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 693 in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Braves were interesting with Overs last month — but it is time to zig from that zag. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-19 |
Padres v. Cubs -134 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Joey Lucchesi. THE SITUATION: Chicago (53-44) has won three straight games — as well as six of their last seven contests — with their 6-5 victory over the Padres last night. San Diego (46-51) has lost two straight games — as well as six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago’s bullpen blew a 5-4 lead in the top of the eighth inning last night before they scored the winning run in the bottom half of that inning — and they have won 17 of their last 19 games after having a blown save. The Cubs have also won 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. Chicago has won 20 of their last 27 home games when priced as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range — and they have also won a decisive 53 of their last 71 home games against teams with a losing record. The Cubs have also won 16 of their last 20 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Chicago has won 11 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 10 or higher — and they have won 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 11 to 11.5 range. And in the last 7 games against teams with a losing record, the Cubs have won 6 of those contests. They give the ball to Quintana who is 7-7 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in eighteen starts (nineteen games). The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 4.20 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in nine starts as compared to his 4.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average on the road. Chicago has won 11 of the last 15 home games with Quintana facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Padres team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .229 batting average along with a .304 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .695 against left-handed starting pitchers. This team has also lost 41 of their last 56 road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
|
07-18-19 |
Mets v. Giants -111 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the New York Mets (911) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (47-49) has won five straight games — as well as twelve of their last fourteen contests — with their 11-8 victory at Colorado yesterday. New York (44-51) has won four games in a row themselves with their 14-4 win at Minnesota on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 13 of their last 19 games after scoring at least eight runs in their last contest. The Giants have also won 7 of their last 8 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. This team is crushing the baseball as of late having scored 115 runs over their last fourteen games (8.2 Runs-Per-Game) while scoring in double-digits in six of those contests. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, San Francisco returns home to begin this series — and they have won 9 of their last 12 opening games to a new series. The Giants have also won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is 5-7 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty starts. The left-hander has been outstanding as of late as he is 2-0 over his last four starts with a 1.86 ERA with 28 strikeouts over 20 innings of work. He also loves facing this Mets team — Bumgarner has a 5-0 record in his last five starts against New York with a 1.26 ERA in those starts. Bumgarner has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.62 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in eleven starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average on the road. San Francisco has won 4 straight games at home with Bumgarner on the hill. He faces a Mets team that has lost 9 of their last 13 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 14 of their last 17 games after a game where at least seventeen combined runs were scored. The Mets have also lost 10 of their last 12 opening games to a new series. This is the sixth straight game on the road for New York — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games after playing their last five games on the road. The Mets have also lost 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Syndergaard who is 7-4 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 4.68 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in eight starts. New York has lost 6 of their last 9 road games with Syndergaard pitching with the Mets’ priced in the +/- 125 range. The Giants have won 5 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers — and over their last seven games, they are scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .321 batting average along with a .376 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .937.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has lost the last two games between these team teams in their last series in June. The Giants have won 18 of their last 26 games when playing with at least double revenge. 25* MLB Thursday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the New York Mets (911) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-18-19 |
Brewers v. Diamondbacks -107 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (909) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Zach Davies. THE SITUATION: Arizona (49-47) has won six of their last eight games after their 19-4 victory at Texas on Wednesday. Milwaukee (50-47) has won their last two games after they defeated Atlanta by a 5-4 score yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONEY-LINE ON THE DIAMONDBACKS: Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after a victory by at least 10 tuns in their last game. The Diamondbacks have also won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 15 of their last 23 games after scoring at least eight runs in their last contest. Arizona returns home where they have won 4 straight games — and they have won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. The Diamondbacks have also won 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Kelly who is 7-9 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching at home in Chase Field where he owns a 3.04 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251 in eight starts as compared to his 4.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .258 opponent’s batting average on the road. Arizona has won 3 of their last 4 home games with Kelly pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a Brewers team that has lost 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 5 straight games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee has lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers have also lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. And in their last 10 opening games to a new series, Milwaukee has lost 8 of these contests. They counter with Davies who is 7-2 with a 2.89 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP in nineteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.27 and 5.00 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.37 WHIP and .285 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 1.30 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average. The Brewers have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road with Davies facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .282 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .842. The Diamondbacks have also won 6 of the last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (909) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-18-19 |
Astros v. Angels OVER 10 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (923) and the Los Angeles Angels (924) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Matt Harvey. THE SITUATION: Houston (60-37) won the third game of this series last night by an 11-2 score. Los Angeles (50-47) saw their five-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Astros last 5 games after a win — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a victory by at least six runs against a fellow AL West rival. Additionally, the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Miley who is 7-4 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.38 moving forward based on Miley’s peripheral numbers. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in eleven starts as compared to his outstanding 1.86 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average at home. The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 road games with Miley pitching priced in the +/- 125 range. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Miley pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher. He faces a hot-hitting Angels team that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .381 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .932 over that span. The Over is 22-8-1 in Los Angeles’ last 31 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 17-5-4 in the Angels’ last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is 4-0-1 in LA’s last 5 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Angels have played 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set at 10 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 6 straight games Over the Total in the fourth game of a series. They counter with Harvey who is 3-4 with a 6.88 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has made one start since his return from an extended stint on the disabled list with a back issue. Harvey has struggled at home where he has an 8.91 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in seven starts. The Angels have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Harvey on the hill. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .287 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .833 in those games. Houston has also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Angles Stadium — and the Over is also 7-2-2 in their last 11 meetings between these two teams. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (923) and the Los Angeles Angels (924) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Matt Harvey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-18-19 |
Rays v. Yankees UNDER 10 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (925) and the New York Yankees (926) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. THE SITUATION: This first game of today’s scheduled double-header is the same pitching matchup as was planned for yesterday game that was postponed due to weather. New York (60-33) has won two of their last three games with their 8-3 victory over the Rays in the second game of this series on Tuesday. Tampa Bay (56-41) had won three straight games before last night’s loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees clubbed two home runs en route to a six-run 8th inning to break open that game on Tuesday while ruining our Under that looked pretty good with the 3-2 score entering the bottom half of the 8th. New York had scored only 17 combined runs in their previous six games while not plating more than four runs in any of those games before Tuesday. The Yankees bullpen did not surrender an earned run in that game — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow at least one earned run. The Under is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to German who is 11-2 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen games). The right-hander went on the disabled list with a hip injury but is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his two starts since his return. German has been much better at home where he owns a 1.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in six starts (seven games) as opposed to his 4.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Yankees have played 6 straight games Under the Total with German pitching at home. Tampa Bay did not commit an error for the third straight game — they have committed only two errors in their last ten games. The Rays have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not committing an error for at least two straight games. Tampa Bay has also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as a road dog priced at least at +150. They counter with Chirinos who is 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in nineteen appearances. The right-hander had been used as a bulk inning middle reliever — but his ability to throw strikes has elevated him to a regular starter in the Rays’ rotation. Chirinos is walking only 5.3% of the batters he faces which combined with Tampa Bay’s outstanding defense to help suppress base runners when he is on the mound. He has made nine straight starts for his team with a 3.04 ERA in those efforts. Chirinos has also been a bit better on the road where he owns a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in nine appearances as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average at home. The Rays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Chirinos on the hill. He faces this cold Yankee lineup that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .250 batting average along with a .321 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .769 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams after Tuesday’s late Over result. Expect a return to a lower scoring game today — although I am downgrading yesterday’s 25* play to a 20* play given the sixteen-hour delay. 20* MLB Thursday Afternoon O/U Matinee with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (925) and the New York Yankees (926) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-17-19 |
Rays v. Yankees UNDER 10 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. THE SITUATION: New York (60-33) has won two of their last three games with their 8-3 victory over the Rays in the second game of this series. Tampa Bay (56-41) had won three straight games before last night’s loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees clubbed two home runs en route to a six-run 8th inning to break open that game last night while ruining our Under that looked pretty good with the 3-2 score entering the bottom half of the 8th. New York had scored only 17 combined runs in their previous six games while not plating more than four runs in any of those games before last night. The Yankees bullpen did not surrender an earned run last night to help keep them in the game — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow at least one earned run. The Under is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to German who is 11-2 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen games). The right-hander went on the disabled list with a hip injury but is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his two starts since his return. German has been much better at home where he owns a 1.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in six starts (seven games) as opposed to his 4.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Yankees have played 6 straight games Under the Total with German pitching at home. Tampa Bay did not commit an error for the third straight game — they have committed only two errors in their last ten games. The Rays have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not committing an error for at least two straight games. Tampa Bay has also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as a road dog priced at least at +150. They counter with Chirinos who is 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in nineteen appearances. The right-hander had been used as a bulk inning middle reliever — but his ability to throw strikes has elevated him to a regular starter in the Rays’ rotation. Chirinos is walking only 5.3% of the batters he faces which combined with Tampa Bay’s outstanding defense to help suppress base runners when he is on the mound. He has made nine straight starts for his team with a 3.04 ERA in those efforts. Chirinos has also been a bit better on the road where he owns a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in nine appearances as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average at home. The Rays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Chirinos on the hill. He faces this cold Yankee lineup that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .250 batting average along with a .321 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .769 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams after last night’s late Over result. Expect a return to a lower scoring game today. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-16-19 |
Mets v. Twins UNDER 10.5 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Stanek and C.C. Sabathia. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (56-40) has won six of their last seven games after their 5-4 victory over the Yankees last night that was catapulted by a three-run homer in the top of the 9th inning. New York (59-33) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Rays’ last 5 games after a win. Tampa Bay did not commit an error last night for their second straight game as well as the seventh time in their last nine contests — and they have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after not committing an error in the field in at least two straight games. The Under is also 18-7-2 in the Rays’ last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They will be using Stanek as their opener tonight. While the right-hander has a 3.14 ERA along with a 1.12 WHIP in 51 2/3 innings of work — he has been outstanding in this opener role where he sports a 1.98 ERA in twenty-six official starts. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with Stanek serving as the opener. Jalen Beeks will then come on to take on the bulk of the work tonight. The lefty has a 5-0 record with a 2.79 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP in 61 1/3 innings. Beeks has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.78 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings. Stanek and Beeks face a slumping Yankees lineup that has now failed to score more than four runs in six straight games. In fact, the Bronx Bombers have not scored nor allowed more than five runs in six straight contests — and they have then played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games after not scoring or allowing at least five runs. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average along with a .317 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .767. The Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, New York has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss. The Yankees have played six straight Unders — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing at least five straight Unders. The Under is also 3-0-1 in New York’s last 4 games at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Sabathia who is 5-4 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.34 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in seven starts. Sabathia has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record. This is the veteran’s first start since July 6th given the All-Star break — and New York has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total with Sabathia pitching with at least nine days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 22-7-2 in the Rays’ last 31 games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is also 3-1-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Stanek and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-16-19 |
Mets v. Twins -1.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (930) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (58-34) had won four of their last five games before suffering a 4-3 loss at Cleveland on Sunday. New York (42-51) has won their last two games after they defeated the Marlins in Miami on Sunday by a 6-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota has bounced-back to win 38 of their last 56 games after a loss. The Twins have also won 9 of their last 12 games after an off-day. Minnesota returns home where they have won 36 of their last 52 games — and they have also won 42 of their last 59 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Pineda who is 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander entered the season returning from Tommy John surgery — so the first half of the season was expected to be a work in progress. Hitting the disabled list in late May for knee tendinitis did not help matters. Over his last five starts, Pineda has a 2.83 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP — and he is 2-0 with a 1.50 and a 0.92 WHIP while striking out 17 batters in 12 innings of work in his last two outings as things seem to be coming together for the 30-year-old. Remember, Pineda combined a 24.8% strikeout rate for the batters he faced from 2015 through 2017 before his elbow injury while inducing ground balls in 49.2% of the batted balls he allowed into play and walking only 5.2% of the batters he faced over that three-year period. Pineda’s velocity on his fastball has finally returned to what it was before his Tommy John surgery — so don’t be surprised if Pineda is dominant during the second half of this season for this powerful Twins lineup. He has done his best work at home this season where he enjoys a 4.28 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251 in nine starts as compared to his 4.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average on the road. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games with Pineda facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mets’ team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .238 batting average along with a .295 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .691 over that span. New York has lost 9 of their last 112 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, the Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. New York has also lost 17 of their last 22 opening games to a new series. They stay on the road where they have lost 27 of their last 37 games — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Mets have also lost 24 of their last 35 games as a money-line underdog priced from +100 to +150. They counter with Matz who is 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in sixteen starts (eighteen games). The knuckle-balling lefty has been effective at home in Citi Field where he sports a 2.59 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 — but he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 7.07 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .306 in nine starts on the road. New York has lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road with Matz on the mound. And this Matz’s first appearance since coming out of the bullpen back on July 6th — and the Mets have lost 7 of their last 10 games with Matz making the start for the first time in at least nine days. He faces a hot-hitting Twins’ lineup that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .288 batting average .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .831 over that span. Minnesota crushes left-handed pitching as well as they score 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over the left-handed starting pitchers with a .297 batting average, .356 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .866. The Twins have won 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won a decisive 50 of their last 67 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: While these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, because Minnesota has a slugging percentage of .495 this season, they are supported by a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 64% effective since 1997. The Mets are hitting only .254 as a team this season — and and National League road underdogs with a team batting average below .250 facing an American League team with a slugging percentage of at least .450 have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -190 to +165 range) in 67 of the last 105 situations where these conditions applied. Minnesota was priced in the -140 range last night — but I suspected that overnight line would rise above my -150 price threshold in the morning. This is still a great situation — but lets lower the investment cost by laying the Run-Line. The Twins have had 25 games this season where they were priced higher than -150 — and they have won 14 of those games by more than one run. Only in two of those games has Minnesota won the game by just one-run — and bettors with the Twins straight-up with the money-line ate the big investment cost with the loss nine times. If (and when) Minnesota wins this game tonight, it will be highly likely to be by more than one run. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Year with the Minnesota Twins (930) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-19 |
Reds v. Cubs -123 |
Top |
6-3 |
Loss |
-123 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (954) versus the Cincinnati Reds (953) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Luis Castillo. THE SITUATION: Chicago (50-43) has won three straight games — as well as five of their last six games — with their 8-3 victory over Pittsburgh yesterday. Cincinnati (42-48) has lost four of their last five games with their 10-9 loss in Colorado yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Manager Joe Maddon has mentioned that his team looks refreshed after taking some days off for the All-Star Break. Chicago has scored eighteen runs in their last two games — and they have won 42 of their last 56 home games after scoring at least eight runs in their last two games. The Cubs have also won 13 of their last 16 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Chicago stays at home in Wrigley Park where they have won 4 straight games — and they have won 18 of their last 24 home games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. The Cubbies have also won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 7-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.65 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in seven starts as opposed to his 5.44 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cubs have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Hendricks on the hill — and they have won 16 of their last 18 home games with Hendricks pitching as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 range. He faces a Reds’ team that has just a .233 batting average on the road away from the Great American Ballpark along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .695. Cincinnati has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. Hendricks loves pitching against the Reds as he owns a 6-2 lifetime record against them with a 3.31 ERA in fifteen career starts. Hendricks is also 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts against Cincinnati. The Reds have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Cincy won their game on Saturday in Colorado by a 17-9 score — but they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last two games and they have lost 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least eight runs in two straight contests. The Reds stay on the road where they have lost 6 of their last 7 games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series. They counter with Castillo who is 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics call for significant regression given his SIERA and xFIP which projects an ERA of 4.23 and 3.79 moving forward given his deeper peripheral numbers. The biggest flaw on the 23-year-old right-hander is his penchant to issue walks — especially on the road. Castillo has issued 28 bases-on-balls in 42 innings away from home which translates into a troubling 6.0 walks per 9 innings rate. Castillo has a 1.40 WHIP in eight starts on the road which has led to his ERA rising to a 3.21 mark as opposed to his outstanding 1.69 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP in his ten starts at home. Cincinnati has lost their last 3 road games with Castillo pitching as the underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. And while Castillo did not allow an earned run in his last start back on July 4th where he pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings at home against Milwaukee, the Reds have then lost 6 of their last 7 games with Castillo following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces a Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .294 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .941 over that span. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 28 of their last 40 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has won 19 of their last 26 opportunities to host the Reds at Wrigley Field. 25* MLB Monday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (954) versus the Cincinnati Reds (953) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Luis Castillo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-19 |
Tigers v. Indians -1.5 |
Top |
6-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (966) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (965) listing both starting pitchers Adam Plutko and Daniel Norris. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (51-40) has won six of their last eight games after they defeated Minnesota yesterday by a 4-3 score. Detroit (29-59) snapped a five-game losing streak yesterday with their 12-8 win at Kansas City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Tigers’ offensive explosion yesterday does not bode well for them tonight. Detroit has lost an incredible 43 of their last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have lost 19 of their last 23 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last contest. Furthermore, not only have the Tigers lost 13 of their last 15 games after a game where at least seventeen combined runs were scored but they have lost 28 of their last 33 games after a game where at least fifteen combined runs were scored. Additionally, Detroit has lost 38 of their last 51 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Tigers have also lost 13 of their last 16 games against fellow AL Central opponents — and they have lost 6 straight opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Norris who is 2-8 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in fifteen starts (eighteen appearances). The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 5.01 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in nine starts (eleven games) as compared to his 4.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Norris suffered a 7.32 ERA on the road as compared to his more modest 4.38 ERA at home. Detroit has lost 9 of their last 12 road games with Norris on the hill — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Norris facing a team with a winning record. The Indians have found their bats with their lineup finally getting healthy — they have scored 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .280 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .891. Cleveland has won 9 of their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won their last six games at home against left-handed starting pitchers. The Indians have also won 9 of their last 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cleveland has won 5 of their last 6 games after a win. They stay at home where they have won a decisive 41 of their last 59 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. The Indians have also won 12 of their last 15 games against AL Central rivals — and they have won 8 of their last 11 opening games to a new series. They counter with Plutko who has been moved back into the starting rotation after spending some time in the bullpen. The right-hander has a 3-1 record with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings this season. The problem for Plutko mostly stems on the road where he has a 5.40 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .323. But in his 21 1/3 innings at home at Progressive Field Plutko has a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221. Plutko had a 1.15 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average pitching at home last year as opposed to his 1.53 WHIP and .323 opponent’s batting average on the road. Cleveland has won 4 of their last 5 home games with Plutko on the mound. This is a great opportunity to face a Tigers team that scores only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .229 batting average, .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .646. The Indians have Detroit’s number with seven straight victories in this series. The Tigers have lost 7 of their last 9 games when having lost at least five straight games to their opponent. Detroit has also lost 24 of their last 31 games against the Indians played in Cleveland.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends identified above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. Because the Tigers are scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game, Detroit falls into a historical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective since 1997. American League teams coming off a game where at least fifteen combined runs were scored who do not score more than 4.2 Runs-Per-Game and who are using a starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4.20 to 4.70 range have then lost 42 of the last 64 situations where these conditions applied. With Cleveland priced above my -150 price threshold, lower the investment cost by taking the Indians minus the -1.5 Run-Line. The Indians have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their last 13 games while losing three of those games outright and winning just two of those games by one run (and the +200 units from those wins is overwhelmed by the three money-line losses priced at -210, -175, and -250). 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Year with the Cleveland Indians (966) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (965) listing both starting pitchers Adam Plutko and Daniel Norris. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-15-19 |
Rays v. Yankees -140 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (962) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (961) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: New York (59-32) has on eighteen of their last twenty-three games with their 4-2 win over Toronto yesterday. Tampa Bay (55-40) has won five of their last six contests after they defeated the Orioles in Baltimore yesterday by a 4-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 36 of their last 52 games after a victory — and they have won 17 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Bronx Bombers have now won 11 of their last 13 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and they have won 52 of their last 68 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander has been much more effective at home where he owns a 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 4.78 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .314 opponent’s batting average on the road. New York has won 6 of their last 7 home games with Paxton on the hill. Tampa Bay had their bullpen pitch 7 innings yesterday — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 games after a game where their bullpen logged in at least 7 innings of work. The Rays have also lost 6 of their last 8 opening games to a new series. They counter with Snell is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in eighteen starts. But while the left-hander has a 3.17 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average at home he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 6.48 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. Tampa Bay has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Snell on the hill. Snell also struggles against the Yankees against whom he has a 3-6 career record in fifteen career starts with a 4.62 ERA. Snell is 0-2 against New York this year with a 5.29 ERA. Even worse, Snell is 1-5 in ten career starts against the Bronx Bombers in Yankee Stadium where he is saddled with a 6.34 ERA. The Rays have lost 8 of their 10 games played in Yankee Stadium with Snell making the start. New York has won 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have won 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Rays — and they have also won 35 of their last 52 opportunities to host Tampa Bay at home. New York has also won the last 14 opening games to a new series with the Rays. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Yankees (962) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (961) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-14-19 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox -103 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (930) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (929) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: Boston (50-41) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last night with their 11-2 loss to the Dodgers. Los Angeles (60-33) ended with their four-game losing streak with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Red Sox have also won a decisive 39 of their last 51 games in Interleague play. They send out Price who is 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in sixteen starts this season. The left-hander is in a good groove right now as he has not allowed more than two earned runs in nine of his last ten starts. Price has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in six starts. Boston has won 21 of their last 27 home games with Price on the mound — and he has won four of their last five home games with Price facing a team with a winning record. He faces a slumping Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .205 batting average, .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .614. They also struggle against left-handed pitching — they are scoring one run less than their season average against left-handed starting pitchers at 4.2 Runs-Per-Game along with .245 batting average, .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .740. Los Angeles has lost 5 of the last 6 games in Interleague play against left-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road against American League opponents. They counter with Ryu who is 10-2 with a 1.73 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in seventeen starts. The left-hander has been downright nasty at home where he owns a 0.85 ERA along with a 0.77 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .189 in nine starts — but those numbers rise to a 2.98 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .263 on the road. Los Angeles has lost 15 of their last 18 road games with Ryu on the hill — and they have also lost 10 of their last 11 road games with Ryu pitching when priced in the +/- 125 price range. The sabermetrics are screaming for regression as well with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.49 and 3.09 respectively moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Ryu does not do his best pitching at night either where his ERA rises to a 2.28 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP. Los Angles has lost 17 of their last 24 games at night with Ryu on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Boston is tearing the cover off the ball as of late as they are scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .305 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .895 during that span. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (930) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (929) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-14-19 |
Braves -127 v. Padres |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (913) versus the San Diego Padres (914) listing both starting pitchers Mike Soroka and Cal Quantrill. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (55-37) has won three straight games — as well as six of their last seven contests — with their 7-5 win in 10 innings over the Padres yesterday. San Diego (45-46) has lost the first two games of this series since the All-Star break.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win. Additionally, the Braves have won 26 of their last 36 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 18 of their last 24 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Atlanta has won 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Soroka who is 9-1 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has a filthy two-seamer that drops on hitters to help induce a ground ball rate of 57% on the balls he allows into play. Soroka has been more effective on the road where he owns a nasty 1.29 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .171 in eight starts. The Braves have won 9 of their last 11 games on the road with Soroka on the hill. Atlanta has also won 12 straight games with Soroka facing a team with a losing record. He faces a slumping Padres lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .225 batting average along with a .263 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .649 during that span. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Quantrill who is 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 41 innings of work. The 24-year-old right-hander has not been as effective at home in Petco Park where he owns a 4.98 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP along with a .295 opponent’s batting average in 21 2/3 innings consisting of four starts and six overall appearances as compared to his 4.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Padres have lost 4 straight games at home with Quantrill on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 20 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning nine of their last twelve games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have now won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. 25* MLB Road Warrior of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (913) versus the San Diego Padres (914) listing both starting pitchers Mike Soroka and Cal Quantrill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-14-19 |
Nationals +108 v. Phillies |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (901) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Jake Arrieta. THE SITUATION: Washington (48-42) has won four straight games — as well as twelve of their last fourteen contests — after winning the second game of this series yesterday by a 4-3 score. Philadelphia (47-44) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Washington has won 19 of their last 26 games after a win. The streaking Nationals have also won 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record. Max Scherzer was supposed to get the start this afternoon — but he went on the disabled list with a back sprain so it will be Sanchez who takes his turn in the rotation. The veteran right-hander has a 5-6 record with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in sixteen starts this season. Sanchez has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.56 ERA with a .234 batting average in eight starts as opposed to his 3.76 ERA and .239 opponent’s batting average at home. Washington has won 6 of their last 8 games with Sanchez on the hill with the Total set at 10 or higher. He faces a Phillies team that has lost 13 of their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 9 of their last 13 games after a loss. They have also lost 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games at home against teams with a winning record. They counter with Arrieta who is 8-7 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in eighteen starts. The veteran has been diagnosed with bone spurs in his throwing elbow which explains why he has a 6.63 ERA over his last seven starts along with a 7.71 ERA over his last three starts. Philadelphia has lost 8 of their last 11 games with Arrieta trying to stop a Philly losing streak. He faces a hot-hitting Nationals team that is hitting .280 over their last seven games with a .366 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .828 over that span. Washington has won 21 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning eleven of their last twelve games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Nationals have also won 4 straight games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has won 8 of their last 11 games in Philadelphia against the Phillies. With Arrieta struggling but still needed to persevere in this Philly rotation, expect the Nationals to keep their winning ways this afternoon. 10* MLB Washington-Philadelphia TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (901) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Jake Arrieta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-19 |
Astros v. Rangers +1.5 |
Top |
7-6 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Rangers (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (977) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Wade Miley. THE SITUATION: Texas (50-42) has won the first two games of this series after their 9-8 victory over the Astros last night. Houston (57-35) has lost two straight games after the All-Star break going into the break having won seven of their last eight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Texas has won 7 of their last 9 games after a win — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after an upset victory over a fellow AL West rival. The Rangers have also won 13 of their last 18 games at home after winning at least three of their last four games. Texas has won 8 of their last 9 home games — and they have won 17 of their last 27 home games as the underdog. They give the ball to Minor who is 8-4 with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eighteen starts this season. The veteran left-hander has enjoyed a career renaissance over the last twelve months or so by throwing fewer fastballs in lieu of more breaking balls and off-speed pitches. Throwing more junk has diminished the exit velocity from the batted balls from opposing hitters which is a big help when pitching in the hitter-friendly Global Life Park. Minor has a 2.34 ERA in nine starts at home as compared to his 2.73 ERA when pitching on the road. The Rangers have won 16 of their last 21 games with Minor on the mound after they have won at least three games. Minor’s teams have also won 32 of their last 56 games when is pitching as the underdog. Houston has lost 8 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 7 of their last 11 games after allowing at least nine runs in their last contest. Furthermore, while the Astros lost as a -200 money-line favorite yesterday with Gerrit Cole on the mound, they have then lost 10 of their last 16 games after suffering an upset loss against a divisional rival despite being a money-line favorite priced at least at -200. Houston has also lost 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 third games to a new series. They counter with Miley who is 7-4 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics for the left-hander call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.34 respectively moving forward. Miley thrives when pitching at home in the friendly pitcher’s environment that is Minute Maid Park — he enjoys a 1.86 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in eight starts. But in his ten starts on the road, Miley sees those numbers rise to a 4.56 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250. His pitching in Global Life Field tonight could get ugly. He allows 1.24 Home Runs per 9 innings of work while allowing opposing batters to establish hard contact in 36.9% of the batted balls he allows. Furthermore, Miley does not miss many bats — he only strikes out 7.6 batters per 9 innings. Miley is also taking the mound for the first time since July 3rd given the All-Star Break — and his teams have lost 4 of their last 5 games when he pitching with at least seven days between starts. He faces a Rangers team that scores 5.7 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Texas has won 8 of their last 10 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends identified above do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking for this play. Because the Rangers are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game, they are supported by an empirical angle that has been 66% effective over the last five seasons. Miley has an 0.89 WHIP over his last three starts — and teams who score at least 5.1 Runs-Per-Game using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00 or lower over his last three starts now facing an American League opponent with a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or lower have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 61 of the last 93 situations where these conditions applied. While taking the Rangers as a money-line underdog is tempting, I prefer talking the underdog with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line when that proposition is priced below the -150 threshold. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Texas Rangers (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (977) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-19 |
Giants v. Brewers OVER 9 |
|
4-5 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Milwaukee Brewers (962) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (42-48) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 10-7 victory last night in the opening game of this series. Milwaukee (47-45) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four contests. Additionally, San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while the Giants’ bullpen has pitched 14 combined innings over the last three games, they have then played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings over their salt three games. San Francisco has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is 5-7 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander does his best pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park where he has a 3.62 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .245 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers rise to a 4.60 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Over is 7-1-1 in the Giants’ last 9 road games with Bumgarner facing a team with a winning record. San Francisco has also played 6 of their last 8 games with Bumgarner facing the Brewers. Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Brewers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game —and the Over is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 17 games at home Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Davies who is 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.28 and 5.00 moving forward. Davies has never been much of a strikeout artist — he is striking out only 15.4% of the batters he is facing while possessing a low 2.1 Strikeout-to-Walk ratio. The right-hander has a hard-hit rate of 35.4% of the batted balls he is allowing into play with 24.7% of these being line drives. Those are ominous numbers for a pitcher who allows so many balls into play. Davies has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.51 ERA along with a 1.39 WHIP in eight starts. Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with Davies on the hill with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Davies faces a Giants team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .278 batting average along with a .323 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .879 over that span. 10* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Milwaukee Brewers (962) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-12-19 |
Reds v. Rockies -132 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (912) versus the Cincinnati Reds (911) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Colorado (44-45) limped into the All-Star Break having lost six straight games after their 5-3 loss in Arizona on Sunday. Cincinnati (41-46) returns from the break on a two-game losing streak after they lost to Cleveland by an 11-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado returns home which will help them get back to their winning ways tonight. The Rockies have won 15 of their last 20 home games against teams with a losing record. Colorado has also won 16 of their last 20 home games with the number set in the 12 to 12.5 range. They give the ball to Jon Gray who is 9-6 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eighteen starts (nineteen games). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.35 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in seven starts (eight games) as compared to his 4.29 ERA and 1.40 WHIP when pitching on the road. The Rockies have won 4 straight home games with Gray facing a team with a losing record. Colorado has also won 4 straight games with Gray pitching against the Reds. He will face a slumping Cincinnati team that was scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests going into the All-Star Break with a .234 batting average, .275 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .651 in those games. The Reds have lost 35 of their last 51 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincy has also lost 31 of their last 46 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Reds have lost 5 of their last 6 games after an off day. Cincinnati has also lost 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 22 of their last 29 road games after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Furthermore, the Reds have lost 4 straight games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Sonny Gray who is 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he sports a 3.44 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in ten starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.79 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP when he is pitching on the road. Cincinnati has lost 14 of their last 18 games on the road with Gray on the mound — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 games with Gray facing a team with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Sonny Gray faces a Rockies that crushes pitching at home in Coors Field — they are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .314 batting average along with a .376 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .911. Colorado has also won a decisive 35 of their last 52 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Friday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (912) versus the Cincinnati Reds (911) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-19 |
Astros v. Rangers OVER 11 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-111 |
18 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (951) and the Texas Rangers (952) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Houston (57-33) went into the All-Star Break having won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 11-10 victory over the Angels Sunday. Texas (48-42) has lost six of their last eight games but they did go into the break with a 4-1 win at Minnesota on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros have seen the Over go 7-3-2 in their last 12 games after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a game where at least 20 combined runs were scored. The Over is also 3-1-1 in Houston’s last five games after an off day. The Astros now go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 40 of their last 59 road games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against fellow AL West competition. Houston has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number set at 10 or higher. They have called up Valdez from Triple-A to make the start as he pitches on regular rest after pitching three innings for their farm team in Round Rock. The left-hander was sent down to the minors after two disastrous starts to end the month of June where he failed to get out of the 4th inning either time while surrendering eleven earned runs for a 15.64 ERA along with a 2.54 WHIP in those 6 1/3 combined innings. For the season, Valdez has a 3-4 record with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 45 1/3 innings — but he sees his ERA rise to a 5.09 mark along with a 1.58 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings on the road. Valdez has also preferred pitching during the day — in his 24 innings under the lights this year, he has a 6.38 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .272. Houston has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Valdez pitching at night. He faces a Rangers team that bashes the ball at home by averaging 5.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .262 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .801. Texas has played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games — and the Over is also 22-8-1 in their last 31 games after an off day. The Rangers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Texas returns home to Global Life Ballpark where they have played 35 of their last 54 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 10 to 10.5 range. They counter with Lynn who is 11-4 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has preferred pitching on the road where he has a 3.45 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in nine starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.37 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .275 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. Lynn’s teams have played 9 of their last 15 games Over the Total when he is pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Lynn faces a potent Astros lineup that was swinging hots bats going into the break. Over their last seven games, Houston was scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .295 batting average along with a .368 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .858 over that span. Expect a high scoring game in the summer heat in the heart of Texas. 10* MLB Houston-Texas ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (951) and the Texas Rangers (952) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-19 |
National League v. American League -110 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the American League (946) versus the National League (945) in the MLB All-Star Game. THE SITUATION: The 90th MLB All-Star Game will be hosted this season at the home of the Cleveland Indians in Progressive Field.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AMERICAN LEAGUE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The American League can make a strong claim to being the superior league right now. They have won four of the last six World Series after the Red Sox defeated the Dodgers last year. The AL has also won six straight All-Star Games after their 8-6 victory in ten innings last year in Washington. In fact, the AL is a dominant 24-6-1 in their last thirty-one Midseason Classics which makes me need a compelling reason to go against those recent team trends. With the American League’s ability to tap into the rosters of the Red Sox along with the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros, they have an advantage in overall talent from these elite teams as compared to the National League that relies on the Dodgers and then teams like the Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs and the Atlanta Braves that are not quite as dominant. I handicap this game similarly as to how I handicap every other baseball game — by paying most of my attention on pitching. The American League has the edge with starting pitchers in my mind. They have a core of three starting pitchers in Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Lucas Giolito who are, at least, as good as the National League’s core of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jacob DeGrom, and Clayton Kershaw. Missing from the NL roster is Max Scherzer who decided to not compete in this All-Star Game due to some soreness in his back. That deprives the NL of the likely best pitcher in baseball. The NL also lost Josh Hader coming out of the bullpen as he has chosen to pass on this event with back issues of his own. What a devastating loss of what would have likely been three innings of work from those two dominant pitchers. Sonny Gray and Brandon Woodruff replace Scherzer and Hader on the roster in what are significant downgrades. The AL replaced Mike Minor, Jake Odorizzi, and Charlie Morton with Shane Bieber, Jose Berrios, and Masahiro Tanaka — and I consider the Bieber and Berrios additions being upgrades over Minor and Odorizzi with the Morton/Tanaka switch being a slight loss overall. Interestingly, the NL only has three pitchers who specialize coming out of the bullpen on the roster in Will Smith, Kirby Yates, and Felipe Vazquez. I just don’t know about the Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts at times. The AL has five specialist relievers on their roster which gives them a bit more late-inning flexibility of pitchers accustomed to pitching in those moments.
FINAL TAKE: With the dominant recent results of the American League along with a roster edge in pitching, the AL once again offers money-line value. 20* MLB All-Star Game Fox-TV Special with money-line on the American League (946) versus the National League (945) in the MLB All-Star Game. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
Indians v. Reds UNDER 9 |
|
11-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (975) and the Cincinnati Reds (976) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Tyler Mahle. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (49-38) has won five games in a row after their 7-2 victory over the Reds yesterday. Cincinnati (41-45) had won three games in a row before that setback.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-1-1 in the Indians’ last 7 games after a win. Shane Bieber pitched eight innings yesterday allowing the two runs before the Cleveland bullpen closed things out in the 9th — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow more than one run. The Indians have now played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games in Interleague play. Furthermore, Cleveland has played 29 of their last 48 games Under the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Bauer who is 7-6 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.56 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in nine starts. The Under is a decisive 46-12-8 in the Indians’ last 66 games on the road with Bauer on the hill. Bauer also thrives in day games where he enjoys a 1.74 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of just .162. He faces a Reds team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. The Under is also 16-5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, the Under is 38-17-1 in the Reds’ last 56 games after a loss. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games at home — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Mahle who is 2-8 with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics for the right-hander are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.82 moving forward. Male has also been more effective at home where he owns a 3.24 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in six starts.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-2-1 in the Reds’ last 8 games with Mahle facing a team with a winning record. Expect a lower scoring game in this afternoon tilt. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (975) and the Cincinnati Reds (976) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Tyler Mahle. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Tampa Bay Rays (968) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (51-39) has won five of their last eight games after they defeated the Yankees in the third game of this series yesterday by a 4-3 score. New York (57-30) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the loss on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. They close out the first half of the regular season with the Over going a decisive 36-13-2 in their last 51 games on the road — and the Over is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Bronx Bombers have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when priced in the +125 to -125 price range. Additionally, New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games played in the day Over the Total. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-3 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has seen his productivity decline this year. His bases-on-balls are up — he is walking 9.9% of the batters he is facing as compared to his 6.5% walk rate last season. And his strikeouts are down — he is punching out 27.6% of the batters he has faced as compared to his elite 32.3% strikeout rate last season. Paxton has also struggled on the road where his ERA rise to a 5.12 mark along with a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in six starts. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Paxton on the hill. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has seen their bullpen blow saves in the last two games of this series — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after suffering two blown saves in a row. The Rays’ bullpen has a 6.82 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP over their last seven games. Tampa Bay has also played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total after playing a fellow AL East rival in their last three games. And the Over is 7-1-2 in the Rays’ last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Morton who is 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics predict regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.51 and 3.22 moving forward given his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.94 mark. The Rays have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Morton facing a team with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Morton pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees team that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .892 over that span. The Over is 35-12-2 in New York’s last 49 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers overall. The Yankees have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing on the artificial turf featured at Tropicana Field. Despite the profile of these two starting pitchers, expect a higher scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break TBS-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Tampa Bay Rays (968) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-19 |
A's -135 v. Mariners |
|
3-6 |
Loss |
-135 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (923) versus the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Marco Gonzales. THE SITUATION: Oakland (49-40) has won six of their last seven games with their 5-2 win over the Mariners last night. Seattle (38-54) has lost three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The A’s have also won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, Oakland has now won 18 of their last 23 games on the road — and they have won 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bassitt who is 5-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirteen starts. The 30-year old right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.52 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .203 in seven starts. The A’s have won 4 of their last 5 road games with Bassitt on the mound. He faces a slumping Mariners team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .203 batting average along with a .276 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .637. Seattle has lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mariners have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, Seattle has lost 27 of their last 40 games at home — and they have lost 21 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gonzales who is 9-7 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.14 and 5.30 moving forward. The left-hander has also struggled at home where he has a 6.00 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .303 opponent’s batting average in nine starts. The Mariners have lost 4 of their last 5 home games with Gonzales facing a team with a winning record. He faces an A’s team that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has won 20 of their last 28 road games against teams using a left-handed starting pitcher. The A’s have also won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 20* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (923) versus the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Marco Gonzales. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-19 |
Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 11 |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (919) and the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann. THE SITUATION: Boston (47-41) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-6 score. Detroit (28-55) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 6-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Porcello who is 5-7 with a 5.07 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander suffered through a terrible June where he had a 6.46 ERA. Over his last two starts which includes his disastrous 1/3 inning of work in London against the Yankees last Saturday, Porcello has a 15.71 ERA along with a 2.77 WHIP in 6 1/3 innings of work. Perhaps the warning signs regarding regression for the 30-year old were in the second half of last season where he had an ERA of 4.54. Gopher balls have always been a problem for Porcello. He allowed 1.27 home runs per 9 innings last year — and this year he is allowing 1.24 homers per 9 innings. But while Porcello struck out 8.9 batters per 9 innings last year, that number has dropped to 7.28 strikeouts per 9 innings. Porcello struck out 23.5% of the batters he faced last year but that number has dropped to 18.3% this season. Porcello has also seen his walk rate rise from 5.9% of the batters he faced last year to 7.2% of the batters he has faced this season. Overall, his K%-BB% mark of 11.1% is his lowest in a Red Sox uniform and a far cry from his career high mark of 17.6% from last year. Porcello has particularly struggled on the road (and his disaster in London was officially listed as a home game) where he has a 5.15 ERA along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in seven starts. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Porcello on the mound — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Porcello facing a team with a losing record. Porcello also struggles in day games where his ERA rises to a 6.23 mark along with a 1.68 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296. He faces a Tigers team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games (as compared to their 3.6 Runs-Per-Game scoring average) along with an improved .257 batting average along with a .311 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .718 over that span. Detroit has played 4 straight Overs this month — and the Over is also 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Zimmermann who is 0-5 with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when pitching at home in Comerica Park where his ERA rises to a 5.40 mark along with a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in four starts this season which included a long stint on the disabled list. Zimmermann does come off a nice performance where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work against Washington — but the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Zimmermann following up a Quality Start. Detroit has also played 17 of their last 24 day games Over the Total with Zimmermann on the mound. He faces a red-hot Red Sox team that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .338 batting average along with a .383 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .965 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. These two teams have now played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (919) and the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-19 |
Cubs v. White Sox +111 |
Top |
6-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (930) versus the Chicago Cubs (929) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (41-43) look to bounce-back from their 11-5 loss to Detroit on Thursday after getting yesterday off. The Cubs (46-42) snapped a four-game losing streak on Thursday with their 11-3 win at Pittsburgh.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The White Sox have still won five of their last seven games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Southsiders have also won 5 straight games after an off day. This improving White Sox team has won 13 of their last 19 games at home in Guaranteed Rate Field — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Giolito who is 11-2 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander comes off a strong outing where he did not allow an earned run in 5 innings of work at home against Minnesota — and the White Sox have won 6 of their last 7 games with Giolito looking to follow up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. Giolito has been the beneficiary of the White Sox’s great pitching coach Don Cooper who shortened the arm action of the former top prospect which has helped him throw more strikes. Giolito has three effective pitches that he is comfortable to mix around with his four-seam fastball, his slider, and his changeup. Giolito has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.70 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP in eight starts. The White Sox have won 6 straight games at home with Giolito on the hill. The White Sox have also won 6 of their last 8 games at night with Giolito on the hill. The Cubs have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Cubbies have lost 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 10 runs in their last contest. The Cubs stay on the road where they are just 17-26 this season. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Lester who is 7-6 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in sixteen starts. Lester does hit best pitching in Wrigleyville where he owns a 2.42 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in nine home starts — but those numbers rise significantly to a 5.67 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in seven starts on the road. The Cubs have lost 4 straight games on the road with Lester on the mound. He faces a hot-hitting White Sox team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last five contests with a .293 batting average along with a .323 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .821 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have won 7 of their last 9 home games when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The Cubs remain overvalued relative to their play on the field this year — while bettors have been slow to catch up to the improving play of this White Sox team. There is nice value with the home team as a small underdog in this one. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Saturday Fox-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (930) versus the Chicago Cubs (929) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-19 |
A's -147 v. Mariners |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (973) versus the Seattle Mariners (974) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Yusei Kikuchi. THE SITUATION: Oakland (47-40) has won five of their last six games with their 7-2 win over Minnesota yesterday. Seattle (38-52) has lost two straight as well as six of their last seven contests after their 5-4 loss to St. Louis yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland should build off their momentum tonight as they have won 16 of their last 21 games after a victory by at least four runs — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The A’s go back on the road where they are 22-22 this after winning 16 of their last 21 games away from home. Oakland has also won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Anderson who is 8-5 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in seventeen starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.46 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in nine starts. The A’s have won 4 straight road games with Anderson on the hill. The veteran also sports a 2.74 ERA at night with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in ten starts this year. Oakland has won 8 of their last 10 games at night with Anderson on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Mariners team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .199 batting average along with a .275 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .625 over that span. Seattle has lost 15 of their last 20 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Mariners have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 27 of their last 39 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. They stay at home where they have lost 21 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. Seattle has left five runners on base in their last two games — and they have lost 6 straight games after not leaving more than five baserunners in two straight games. The Mariners have also played two straight Unders — and they have then lost 7 of their last 8 games after playing at least two games that finished Under the Total. They counter with Kikuchi who is 4-5 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in eighteen starts this season. The left-hander is beginning to really struggle in his first year pitching in the United States after being signed from Japan in the offseason. Over his last three starts, Kikuchi has a 6.75 ERA with a 1.88 WHIP spanning 16 innings of work. Kikuchi has also been less effective at home where his ERA rises to a 5.49 mark in eight starts. Seattle has lost 5 of their last 7 games with Kikuchi facing a team with a winning record. He faces an underrated A’s lineup that has scored 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has won 6 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (973) versus the Seattle Mariners (974) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Yusei Kikuchi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-19 |
Rockies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks |
|
0-8 |
Loss |
-118 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (957) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Colorado (44-42) has lost three straight games after their 4-2 loss to Houston on Wednesday. Arizona (43-45) has also lost three games in a row after they lost in Los Angeles to the Dodgers on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Diamondbacks have lost 7 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Arizona returns home where they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Diamondbacks have also lost 17 of their last 26 home games at night. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, Arizona has lost 6 of these contests. They give the ball to Greinke who is 9-3 with a 2.90 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.74 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has an ERA of 3.40 along with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251 in eight starts. The Diamondbacks have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Greinke pitching on five days rest. Arizona has also lost 4 straight games with Greinke facing the Rockies. Colorado is swinging hot bats right now despite their recent losing streak — they are scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .311 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .859 over that span. The Rockies have won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Colorado has also won 9 of their last 13 opening games to a new series. They counter with Sensately who is 7-5 with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander is significantly better away from Coors Field as his ERA drops to a 3.92 mark pitching on the road. Sensately is 2-0 against Arizona this year with a 2.13 ERA in two starts. The Rockies have won 5 of their last 6 games with Sensately facing a team with a losing record. Colorado has also won 7 of their last 9 games with Sensately on the mound at night. The Diamondbacks have lost 6 of their last 8 home games when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The Rockies have won 6 straight games in Arizona after sweeping their three-game series at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks last month. Arizona has lost 23 of their last 36 games at home when playing with at least double revenge.
FINAL TAKE: While none of these team trends referenced takes into account the +1.5 Run-Line, because Colorado averages 1.29 Home Runs per game, they are supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. National League teams who average at least 1.25 Home Runs per game using a starting pitcher with a WHIP in the 1.55 to 1.65 range have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 52 of the last 77 situations where these conditions applied. With the valuable +1.5 Run-Line priced below my -150 threshold, I consider that betting option to be the superior investment with the Rockies. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Colorado Rockies (957) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-19 |
Phillies v. Braves OVER 10.5 |
Top |
6-12 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Zach Elfin and Mike Soroka. Atlanta (51-36) snapped their two-game losing streak yesterday with their 9-2 win over the Phillies. Philadelphia (45-41) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a victory by at least six runs — and they have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Over is 14-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 20 games are scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have been an offensive juggernaut when playing at home in SunTrust Park where they are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average along with a .348 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .840. The Over is 15-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 21 games at home — and the Over is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Soroka who is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in fourteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression for the rookie right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 3.75 respectively moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Soroka has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.28 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in six home starts as compared to his 1.29 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and .171 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 4-1-1 in Soroka’s last 6 starts — and the Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Soroka facing a fellow NL East opponent. He faces a Phillies team that has seen the Over go 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the first two games of this series have finished Under the Total, the Phillies have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. They give the ball to Eflin who is 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression — and this may be well underway already — with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.64 and 4.75 moving forward. Elfin had a 4.02 ERA in his last five starts in the month of June — and he has surrendered 19 base hits in his last two starts spanning only 11 innings. Eflin has not been as effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.62 along with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in nine starts. The Over is 3-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 5 road games with Eflin facing a team with a winning record — and Philly has played 11 of their last 14 Over the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range with Eflin on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 11-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Expect a high scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Zach Elfin and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-04-19 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
|
11-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (905) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jordan Lyles. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (42-43) has won the first three games of this series — as well as six of their last eight games — with their 6-5 victory over the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (45-42) has lost four straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have seen the Over go 24-9-2 in their last 35 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 19-5-2 in the Pirates’ last 26 games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when playing at home as an underdog. They give the ball to Lyles who is 5-4 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in thirteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.40 and 4.20 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Lyles has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.93 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in seven starts. Lyles struggles in day games as well where he has a 4.94 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total with Lyles pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when losing three straight games against a fellow NL Central rival. The Cubs have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. This is Chicago’s seventh straight game on the road — and they have played 37 of their last 59 games Over the Total when playing at least their fourth game on the road. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 11 of their last 17 road games Over the Total when favored at least with a -110 price — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Quintana who is 5-7 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander comes off a strong outing where he did not allow an earned run in Cincinnati — but the sabermetrics remain unconvinced. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.68 and 4.38 moving forward. The biggest issue for the veteran is his declining velocity — his fastball is topping out at 91.7 MPH which is his lowest since his rookie season. Quintana struck out only four Reds’ batters in his last start which was the twelfth time he has failed to punch out more than six batters. Quintana has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.26 ERA with a troubling 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .283 in eight starts. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with Quintana pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Quintana also struggles in day games where his ERA rises to a 5.36 mark along with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 in seven stats.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates are hitting the ball right now as they are averaging 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .316 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .933 during that span. The Over is 6-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 15-6-1 in their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (905) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jordan Lyles. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-19 |
Tigers v. White Sox -106 |
Top |
11-5 |
Loss |
-106 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (14) versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Reynaldo Lopez and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-42) has won five of their last six games after sweeping yesterday’s doubleheader with the Tigers by 7-5 and 9-6 scores. Detroit (27-54) has now lost three straight games as well as eleven of their last twelve contests. Lopez was scheduled to pitch against Boyd in the opening game of this series on Tuesday but rain postponed that game and both managers decided to push back the starters an extra day after both warmed up to take the mound.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The White Sox are now 24-18 at home in Guaranteed Rate Park — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games at home. Additionally, Chicago has also won 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Lopez who is 4-7 with a 6.12 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. Those are unappealing numbers but the worst of it for Lopez has been when he has been on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.59 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in eight starts. Lopez has been pitching better at home as of late after enduring a terrible start to the season. Over his last four starts at home at Guaranteed Rate Field, Lopez has a respectable 4.27 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP covering 25 1/3 innings of work. Lopez was very good at home last year where he enjoyed a 3.63 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 home games with Lopez pitching when priced in the +125 to -125 range. He has a great opportunity to pick up his fifth win of the season against this Tigers team that is scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests while hitting just .231 over that span with a .293 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .634. Detroit has lost a decisive 42 of their last 55 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Tigers have also lost 26 of their last 33 games after a loss — and they have lost 20 of their last 27 games after dropping the first two games in a series. Furthermore, Detroit has lost 54 of their last 72 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also lost 15 of their last 20 games against teams with a losing record. Detroit was a small favorite in this matchup because of Boyd who has a 3.72 ERA and a 1.09 WHP in seventeen starts which has resulted in a 5-6 record — but (unfortunately) the two-game sweep yesterday helped to alert bettors to the relative value offered by this improved White Sox team. Boyd has thrived at home where he owns a 3.36 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in nine starts. But the left-hander sees those numbers rise to a 4.17 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average on the road. Last year, Boyd endured a 5.89 ERA along with a 1.31 WHIP on the road. And while Boyd is pitching better this year after simplifying his approach to relying mostly on his fastball and slider, he remains a fly ball pitcher who is vulnerable to giving up gopher balls. Boyd surrendered a whopping ten home runs last month in five starts after only surrendering seven home runs in his first twelve starts of the season — so pitching in Guaranteed Rate Park will be a challenge since they allow the fifth-most home runs in MLB this season. Detroit has lost 21 of their last 29 road games with Boyd on the bump — and they have lost 7 straight games with Boyd pitching in Chicago against the White Sox.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago surge as of late in large part because they are hitting the ball better. Over their last seven games, the White Sox are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .283 batting average. Chicago has won 7 of their last 8 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (914) versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Reynaldo Lopez and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-19 |
Cardinals v. Mariners +1.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-143 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (980) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (979) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Seattle (38-51) snapped their four-game losing streak in the opening game of this series with their 5-4 victory over the Cardinals. St. Louis (41-42) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Seattle bullpen blew a 4-1 lead last night before the Mariners scored the winning run in the bottom of the 8th inning — and they have won 9 of their last 14 games after a game where they blew a save. Seattle has won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Leake who is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.00 ERA in seven starts as opposed to his 5.08 ERA on the road. Surrounding gopher balls has been the biggest problem for Leake this season as he allowed a league-leading 23 home runs this year. But 19 of those home runs came on the road — Leake has given up only four home runs at home in the spacious T-Mobile Park. The Mariners have won 8 of their last 9 home games with Leake facing a team with a losing record. Seattle has also won 28 of their last 38 home games with Leake pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. He should find success against the slumping Cardinals who are scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .229 batting average along with a .278 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .636 over that span. St. Louis has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 13 of their last 20 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Additionally, St. Louis has lost 4 straight games in Interleague play. They counter with Wainwright who is 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been effective at home where he owns a 2.68 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in eight starts — but he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 6.56 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 when on the road. The Cardinals have lost 4 straight road games with Wainwright on the hill — and they have also lost 5 of their last 7 games with Wainwright pitching in Interleague play. Furthermore, Wainwright has a 5.22 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in eleven starts — and St. Louis has lost 8 of their last 10 games at night with Wainwright on the mound. He faces a Mariners team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends referenced in this Report do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we will be taking in this contest. Because the Mariners average 1.71 Home Runs per game, they are supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 61% effective since 1997. Seattle has a bullpen WHIP of 1.45 — and home teams who average at least 1.5 Home Runs per game whose bullpen has a WHIP in the 1.45 to 1.55 range have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 114 of these last 187 situations. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Mariners (980) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (979) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-19 |
Angels v. Rangers +1.5 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-140 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Rangers (968) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (967) listing both starting pitchers Ariel Jurado and Jaime Barria. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-43) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 9-4 victory in the opening game of this series. Texas (46-39) has now lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Texas has bounced-back to win 9 of their last 13 games after a loss — and they have also won 13 of their last 17 games at home after a setback. Additionally, the Rangers have pulled the upset to win 15 of their last 24 games at home as the underdog. They give the ball to Jurado who is 5-3 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in eight starts and seventeen overall appearances. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.76 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in four starts and eight overall appearances. Texas has won 4 of their last 5 games with Jurado pitching with five days of rest. The Rangers have also won 3 of their las5 4 games with Jurado pitching at night. He should fare well against this Angels team that is hitting only .238 over their last seven games with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .692 over that span. Los Angeles has lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Angels were playing with heavy emotions in their first contest after the shocking death of Tyler Skaggs. An emotional letdown tonight is likely. As it is, Los Angeles has lost 22 of their last 30 games after an upset win over a divisional rival as an underdog. The Angels have also lost 10 of their last 14 games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They counter with Barria who was announced as the starter this afternoon after being called up from Triple-A with the decision to push Griffin Channing’s start back one day. Barria was sent down to the minor leagues after posting a 2-2 record along with a 5.55 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings this season. Barria was 10-9 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP last year — but his unsustainable 82.1% strand rate along with a low Batting Average for the Balls he allowed Into Play (BABIP) of .271 called for big regression this season. His SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.84 and 4.99 given his peripheral numbers from last year played a role in his not even making the team coming out of spring training. Barria has a 14.85 ERA along with a 2.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .457 in the 6 2/3 innings he has pitched on the road this season. That is an ominous sign when now facing this Rangers team that is hitting 5.8 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests along with a .268 batting average, .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .811 over that span. Texas has won 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while the Rangers have lost their last three games with the Angels, they have then won 9 of their last 14 games when playing with triple revenge.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends referenced above do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking in this game. Because the Rangers’ bullpen surrendered six runs last night, Texas is supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 66% effective over the last five seasons. American League teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4.20 to 4.70 range whose bullpen allowed at least six earned runs in their last game have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 33 of these last 50 situations where these conditions applied. While some bettors might find taking the Rangers as the money line underdog tempting, I find taking the +1.5 Run-Line when it is priced below the -150 threshold to be much more valuable. 10* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Texas Rangers (968) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (967) listing both starting pitchers Ariel Jurado and Jaime Barria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-19 |
Giants v. Padres OVER 8.5 |
|
10-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Matt Strahm. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (36-47) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 13-2 score. San Diego (42-41) has lost two straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-2-2 in the Giants’ last 9 games after a win — and the Over is 5-1-1 in San Francisco’s last 7 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. San Fran has also played 18 of their last 26 road games Over the Total when playing at night. They give the ball to Beede who is 1-3 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in nine appearances which include seven starts. The right-hander has really struggled on the road where he owns a 7.11 ERA with a 1.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in five starts (six appearances). The Giants have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Beede on the mound pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. He faces a hot-hitting Padres team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .273 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .872 over that span. The Over is 4-1-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 3-1-3 in their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have seen the Over go 10-2-4 in their last 16 games are a loss — and the Over is 10-4-3 in their last 17 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Diego’s last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Strahm who is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where his ERA rises to a 5.85 mark in six starts. The Padres have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Strahm on the mound. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .279 over that span with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .844.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Expect another high-scoring game between these two National League West opponents. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total the San Francisco Giants (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Matt Strahm. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-19 |
Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Trent Thornton. THE SITUATION: Boston (44-40) returns stateside after getting swept in their two-game series in London against the Yankees where they followed up a 17-13 loss on Saturday with a 12-8 loss on Sunday. Toronto (32-53) has won three of their last four games with their 11-4 win over Kansas City yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 10 runs in their last game to a fellow AL East rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 10 runs in two straight games. Furthermore, while the Red Sox bullpen surrendered ten runs on Sunday, they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen gave up at least four runs. The Over is also a decisive 41-16-2 in Boston’s last 59 games after an off day. They stay on the road where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home. They have also played 28 of their last 43 games when priced at -150 or higher. They give the ball to Price who is 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in six starts — but those numbers climb to a 3.60 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 on the road. And while Price comes off a solid outing where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work at home against the White Sox, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Price looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .307 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .930 over that span — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Blue Jays stay at home where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. Toronto has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Thornton who is 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective a home where his ERA rises to a 6.39 mark with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .272 in seven starts. The Blue Jays have played 4 straight games Over the Total at home with Thornton on the hill — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home with Thornton facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .328 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .924 in those games. Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between two teams when playing in Toronto. 20* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Trent Thornton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-19 |
Brewers v. Reds -103 |
|
8-6 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (954) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (953) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (38-43) has won two of their last three games with their 8-6 win over the Cubs yesterday. Milwaukee (45-39) has won three of their last four contests after their 2-1 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cincinnati has won 5 of their last 8 games after a victory. And while the Reds’ bullpen surrendered six runs in yesterday’s game, they have then won 6 of their last 7 games after their bullpen allowed at least four runs in their last game. Cincinnati returns home where they have won 6 of their last 7 games — and they have won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Mahle who is 2-8 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in fifteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.97 and 3.83 respectively. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.96 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in five starts as compared to his 5.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .281 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Reds have won 4 of their last 5 games at home with Mahle on the mound. He should have success tonight when facing this Brewers team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .234 batting average along with a .306 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .721 during that span. Milwaukee has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. The Brewers have also lost 5 of their last 7 games when facing an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Brewers have lost 6 straight opening games to a new series. And in their last 8 games with a Total set at 10 or higher, Milwaukee has lost 6 of those contests. They counter with Houser who is 2-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 33 2/3 innings of work. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.61 and 3.29 moving forward. The right-hander is making just his fourth start of the season as he takes over the struggling Jimmy Nelson’s spot in the rotation. Houser has a 1.08 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 in 14 1/3 innings of work — but those numbers take a significant bump up when on the road given his 3.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .300 opponent’s batting average in 19 1/3 innings of work. The Brewers have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Mahle to outpitch Houser in the Great American Ballpark. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (954) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (953) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-19 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
Top |
5-18 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Adbert Alzaolay and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Chicago (45-39) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-6 loss in Cincinnati yesterday. Pittsburgh (39-43) has lost two in a row after their 2-1 loss in Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less in their last game. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when facing an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 22 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Alzolay who is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his 8 2/3 innings of pitching this year after being called up from Triple-A. Obviously, we are dealing with a very small sample size — but there are some things to be worried about with the rookie. First, Alzolay has already issued six bases-on-balls in those 8 1/3 innings of work. Second, this will be his first time pitching in a hostile ballpark in his career at the major league level. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.30 and 5.44 based on his peripheral numbers — so I do not put much stock in his current ERA. Alzolay faces a hot-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .298 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .849 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in the Pirates’ last 21 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 9-3-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games at home Over the Total after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 7-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 9 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Pirates have only scored two runs in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in two straight contests. Pittsburgh returns home here the Over is 19-6-2 in their last 27 games. Additionally, the Pirates have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Williams who is 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has struggled with a 6.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average in four starts. Pittsburgh has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Williams pitching at home. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The last meeting between these two teams ended with the Cubs pulling a 2-0 loss in Wrigley Field back on April 11th. The Pirates have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one run. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Adbert Alzaolay and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-19 |
Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (913) and the New York Mets (914) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-34) has won six of their last eight games after they won Game Two of this series last night by a 5-4 score. New York (37-47) has lost seven straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by one run over a fellow NL East rival. The Over is also 10-3-1 in Atlanta’s last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 20 road games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5, the Braves have played 13 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Fried who is 9-3 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in sixteen starts (eighteen appearances). The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.50 mark along with a 1.52 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280 in eight starts (ten games). Atlanta has played 9 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total with Fried on the hill. Fried comes off a good effort where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work in Chicago against the Cubs (but his troubling walk rate as of late continued as he issued five bases on balls) — and the Over is 6-1-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games when Fried is looking to follow up a Quality Start. New York has played 16 of their last 24 games in the month of June Over the Total. The Mets have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when favored in the -100 to -150 price range — and this includes them playing nine of their last thirteen games at home Over the Total when favored up to the -150 price. New York has also played 34 of their last 50 games Over the Total when playing at night
|
06-30-19 |
Cardinals v. Padres -110 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Joey Lucchesi and Miles Mikolas. THE SITUATION: San Diego (41-40) has won four straight games after their 12-2 win over the Cardinals yesterday in the second game of this series. St. Louis (40-40) has lost five straight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego is on fire with their bats right now. They have scored 33 runs during their four-game winning streak with 42 base hits which includes a whopping 16 more runs over that span. The Padres have won 6 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. San Diego has also won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Lucchesi who is 6-4 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. The rookie has been pitching his best ball of the season as he owns a 3-1 record with a 3.38 ERA along with a 0.95 WHIP over his last five starts. The left-hander has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in nine starts. The Padres have won 7 of their last 10 games at home with Lucchesi making the start — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 home games with Lucchesi facing a team with a losing record. Lucchesi has had an extra couple days of rest to prepare for this start with his last effort being last Sunday — and San Diego has won 6 of their last 7 games with Lucchesi pitching with six days of rest. He faces a cold Cardinals lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .219 batting average along with a .277 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .598 over that span. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 7 road games when facing left-handed starting pitchers. That cause was made even worse for the Cards with Marcell Ozuna hitting the disabled list after suffering a broken right hand. Ozuna is the team’s best hitter with six more home runs and 26 more RBIs than any of his teammates. St. Louis has five of their last seven games — and they have then lost 12 of their last 18 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. The Cardinals have also lost 17 of their last 25 games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record. St. Louis has also lost 6 straight games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Mikolas who is 5-8 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been very tough when pitching at home in Busch Stadium where he owns a 2.48 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 — but those numbers explode to a 7.76 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .346 in seven starts on the road. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 6 road games with Mikolas on the mound. And while Mikolas allowed only one run in his last start which was at home against the Angels, St. Louis has lost 3 of their last 4 games when Mikolas is following up a start where he allowed only one earned run. The Padres are scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .275 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .902 in those games. San Diego has also won 5 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have lost 16 of their last 24 games when playing with at least double-revenge. St. Louis has also lost 6 of their last 7 meetings with the Padres which includes them losing four straight games in San Diego’s Petco Park. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Joey Lucchesi and Miles Mikolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-19 |
Rangers v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-6 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (921) and the Tampa Bay Rays (922) listing both starting pitchers Jesse Chavez and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Texas (46-37) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 5-2 loss to the Rays. Tampa Bay (47-36) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also played 15 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five contests. Additionally, the Texas bullpen has pitched only five combined innings in their last three games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when their bullpen has not logged more than 5 combined innings in their last three contests. The Rangers have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total in the month of June. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. Jesse Chavez takes the mound with his 3-2 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 51 2/3 innings of work. The veteran right-hander is making his first start of the season because he has allowed only one earned run in his last 14 1/3 innings of work while striking out 14 batters and walking just one over that span. Working mostly in long relief this season, Chavez has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.37 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .222 in 26 1/3 innings of work as compared to his 4.26 ERA along with a .271 opponent’s batting average at home. Chavez’s teams have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when he is making a start with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a slumping Rays’ team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .202 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .622 over that span. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Rays’ last 8 games after a win — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Tampa Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Rays’ last 9 games at home — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Snell who is 4-7 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander has really struggled as of late having not completed four complete innings in three straight starts. He is struggling with his curveball which has allowed hitters to sit on his fastball. But his velocity on his fastball is still good at 96 MPH and he has an effective changeup as a counter to it. His last two starts have been on the road against two of the best offenses in baseball against the Yankees and Twins — so maybe just returning home will help cure what ails him. Snell has gotten pounded on the road where he has a 6.48 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 — but he has been very good at home with a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average in seven starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.57 and 3.20 moving forward. Tampa Bay has played 21 of their last 35 games Under the Total with Snell on the hill after a win. He should find success against this Rangers team that is hitting only .228 against left-handed starting pitchers with a .307 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .693. Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (921) and the Tampa Bay Rays (922) listing both starting pitchers Jesse Chavez and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-19 |
A's v. Angels UNDER 9.5 |
|
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: Oakland (44-39) has won three of their last four games with their 7-2 victory over the Angels last night. Los Angeles (42-41) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Anderson who is 7-5 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander looks to bounce-back from a disappointing outing where he allowed 7 earned runs run in just 3 innings of work against Tampa Bay. The Under is 3-1-1 in Oakland’s last games with Anderson looking to redeem himself from an outing where he did not complete 4 full innings of work. Anderson has been more effective on the road where he owns a 4.02 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in eight starts. The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Anderson facing a team with a winning record. Oakland has also played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total with Anderson pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces an Angels’ team that is scoring 4.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Under is also 11-5-3 in LA’s last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the Angels are scoring only 4.5 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .249 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .708. The Under is 20-7-1 in Los Angeles’ last 28 games at home against left-handed starting pitchers. The Angels have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total overall. They counter with Skaggs who is 7-6 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander was saddled with an unusually low strand rate for the runners he left on base— but the Regression Gods have finally rescued him as of late as he is getting out of more innings unscathed to help lift his Left-On-Base rate to be closer to the MLB average. Over his last two starts, Skaggs has allowed only one earned run in 12 1/3 innings of work for a 0.75 ERA along with a 0.58 WHIP over that span. Both those starts were on the road — and now Skaggs returns home where he has been more effective with a 3.58 ERA along with an opponent’s batting average of .233 in five starts as compared to his 4.72 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .255 on the road. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with Skaggs on the hill — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total with Skaggs facing a team with a winning record. He faces an A’s team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .228 batting average along with a .281 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .725 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Skaggs on the mound facing the A’s. Oakland has seen the Under go 3-1-2 in their last 4 games with Anderson starting against Los Angeles. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-19 |
Cubs v. Reds -114 |
Top |
6-0 |
Loss |
-114 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (956) versus the Chicago Cubs (955) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (36-42) snapped a four-game losing streak last night by defeating the Cubs in the opening game of this series by a 6-3 score. Chicago (44-37) has now lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cincinnati has won 5 of their last 6 games after a victory — and they have also won 6 of their last 8 games after losing four of their last five games. Additionally, the Reds have won 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 5 straight games at home. They give the ball to Castillo who is 7-2 record with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has added a change-up this year which has helped him become more effective against left-handed hitters. Castillo has a deadly combination of attributes in that he is striking out 28.9% of the batters he is facing while inducing ground balls in 55.3% of the balls he is allowing into play. Castillo’s biggest flaw is that he is walking too many batters at a 13.0% clip of all the batters he faces. He issued five bases-on-balls in his last start on the road against Milwaukee. Castillo has a 1.40 WHIP when pitching on the road. But he has better control at home where his WHIP drops to a 0.97 mark which correlates with a 2.01 ERA and a .164 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. Cincinnati has won 14 of their last 20 home games with Castillo on the hill — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Castillo facing a team with a winning record. The Reds have also won 5 of their last 7 games with Castillo facing the Cubs. Chicago has lost 8 of their last 10 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have also lost 9 of their last 11 games away from home overall — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 19 road games, as an underdog priced at least at +100, Chicago has lost 15 of these contests. They counter with Quintana who is 4-7 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in sixteen games (fifteen starts). The lefty is mired in a big slump over his last nine starts where he has a 0-6 record with a 5.40 ERA. Quintana’s velocity is down to just 91.7 MPH on his fastball which is the lowest mark since his rookie season back in the idyllic days of 2012. The result has been that Quintana has not struck out more than six batters in eleven straight starts. Quintana has also been less effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.93 mark along with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 on seven starts (eight games). The Cubs have lost 4 straight road games with Quintana on the mound. Quintana has also been rocked with a 6.29 ERA along with a 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in six day starts.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Quintana facing the Reds. Cincy is currently scoring a healthy 5.1 Runs-Per-Game. 25* MLB National League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (956) versus the Chicago Cubs (955) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 11 |
Top |
17-13 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Boston Red Sox (966) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: New York (52-28) begins this series having won three straight games — as well as eleven of their last twelve contest — after their 8-7 victory over Toronto on Thursday. Boston (44-38) has lost three of their last five games after their 8-7 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Thursday. While the Red Sox are the technical home team who will bat last in this series, this game is being played on a neutral field at London Stadium in England.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by just one run. New York has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 35-14-2 in the Bronx Bombers’ last 51 games on the road. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in sixteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics for the right-hander calls for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.96 moving forward. Tanaka has not been as effective away from Yankee Stadium as he owns a 3.89 ERA on the road in six starts as compared to his 2.84 ERA at home. And while Tanaka comes off a nice outing where he allowed only two runs in 6 innings of work against the Astros — but the Over is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games when Tanaka is on the hill looking to follow up a Quality Start. The Over is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games with Tanaka facing the Red Sox. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitching. The Red Sox are swinging hot bats right now as they are scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .310 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .868 over that span. Additionally, the Over is 40-16-2 in Boston’s last 58 games after an off day — and the Over is 29-14-2 in their last 45 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total in contests with the Total set at 11 or higher. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Boston’s last 6 games against fellow AL East opponents. They counter with Porcello who is 5-7 with a 4.52 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander either with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.89 and 5.02 respectively moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Porcello has struggled away from Fenway Park where he has a 5.15 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.11 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when pitching in Fenway. The Red Sox have played 3 of their last 4 games with Porcello pitching with the Total set at 11 or higher. He faces a powerful Yankee lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .935.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Expect a high scoring game between these two teams swinging hot bats. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Boston Red Sox (966) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-19 |
Braves +128 v. Mets |
|
6-2 |
Win
|
128 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (903) versus the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Soroka and Jacob DeGrom. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (48-34) saw their two-game winning streak snapped yesterday with a 9-7 loss in Chicago to the Cubs. New York (37-45) has lost five straight games after their 6-3 loss in Philadelphia yesterday afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta still has the best record in baseball this month with an 18-7 mark. The Braves have bounced-back to win 5 straight games after a loss — and they have also won 10 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Atlanta has won 21 of their last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They stay on the road where they have won 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 7 to 7.5 — and they have won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Soroka who has been cleared to pitch tonight after seeing his start earlier this week pushed back due to some arm stiffness. The right-hander has an 8-1 record with a 2.07 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in thirteen starts. Soroka has been very tough on the road where he owns a 1.05 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .154 in seven starts. The Braves have won 8 of their last 10 road games with Soroka on the hill. Atlanta has also won 11 straight games with Soroka facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this Mets team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. New York has lost 4 straight games after a loss — and they have lost 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have also lost 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 straight opening games to a new series. New York returns home for the first time since June 16th — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. They counter with DeGrom who is 4-6 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.73 mark along with a 1.12 WHIP in seven starts. The Mets have lost 20 of their last 28 games with DeGrom on the mound — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games with DeGrom pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. The New York bullpen has been a disaster as of late with a 9.15 ERA along with a 2.14 WHIP over their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves may need to pull this game out late — but they offer too much value as a money-line dog to not invest in tonight. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (903) versus the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Soroka and Jacob DeGrom. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-19 |
Nationals -147 v. Tigers |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (927) versus the Detroit Tigers (928) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Daniel Norris. THE SITUATION: Washington (40-40) has won three straight games — as well as eight of their last ten contests — with their 8-5 win at Miami yesterday. Detroit (26-50) has lost seven straight games — as well as eleven of their last twelve contests — after their 3-1 loss to Texas yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This red-hot Washington team has won 6 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have also won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Washington stays on the road where they have won 6 of their last 7 games — and they have won 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 10 to 10.5. Additionally, the Nationals have won 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Washington sends out Sanchez who is 3-6 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in fourteen starts. The 35-year old has reinvented himself late in his career by adding a cutter into his arsenal to compensate for his declining velocity — and this has lowered his hard-hit rate by opposing batters. Sanchez has been outstanding as of late with a 3-0 record over his last five starts with a 2.45 ERA over that span. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.84 ERA with a .233 opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA and .244 opponent’s batting average at home. The Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 games with Sanchez pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a cold Tigers lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last five games. Detroit has lost 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. The Tigers have also lost 22 of their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has lost 12 of their last 14 home games after being on at least a three-game losing streak. The Tigers have also lost 23 of their last 29 games after a loss — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Detroit has been a disaster when playing at home in Comerica Park where they have dropped 20 of their last 22 games. The Tigers have also lost 26 of their last 33 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have lost 20 of their last 25 home games as the underdog. They counter with Norris who is 2-6 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in thirteen starts (sixteen appearances). The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.10 ERA as compared to his more modest 4.44 ERA on the road. Detroit has lost 16 of their last 21 home games with Norris on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Nationals team that has scored 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .268 batting average along with a .332 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .809 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has won 9 of their last 13 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. With the price on the Nationals below my -150 price threshold, let’s attack. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Road Warrior of the Year with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (927) versus the Detroit Tigers (928) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Daniel Norris. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-19 |
Mets v. Phillies OVER 10.5 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (905) and the Philadelphia Phillies (906) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (40-38) won the second game of this series last night by a 7-5 score. New York (37-42) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring last least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 7 home games with the Total set at 10, the Phillies have played 5 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Pivetta who is 4-2 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander suffered a disastrous start to the season which resulted in him being demoted to Triple-A. His prolific strikeout numbers made him a breakout candidate in some circles — and he enjoyed some good starts when recalled to the big leagues. But the inconsistent hurler has reverted back to form over his last two starts where he has surrendered 10 earned runs in 12 innings of work for a 7.50 ERA along with a 1.67 WHIP. Command has been the biggest stumbling block for Pivetta. And while his last two starts were on the road, Pivetta returns home where he owns a 5.85 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .308 as compared to his more modest 5.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average on the road. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Pivetta on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with Pivetta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Mets team that has scored 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .285 batting average along with a .347 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .876 over that span. The Over is 9-1-1 in New York’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 9-1-2 in the Mets’ last 12 games after a loss — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 8-2-1 in New York’s last 11 games on the road. They counter with Vargas who is 3-3 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in twelve starts (thirteen games). The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.27 and 5.30 moving forward. And while the left-hander has a nice 2.79 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 at home, those numbers rise significantly to a 4.65 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and a .268 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 7-2-2 in the Mets’ last 11 games on the road with Vargas on the hill. He faces a Philly team that has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total at home against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Phillies have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Pivetta facing the Mets. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Philly. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (905) and the Philadelphia Phillies (906) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-19 |
Rockies -134 v. Giants |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (903) versus the San Francisco Giants (904) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Jeff Samardzija. THE SITUATION: Colorado (41-38) looks to bounce-back from losing the second game of this series by a 4-2 score. San Francisco (34-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory behind the efforts of starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner — but they have still lost five of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Despite the loss on Tuesday, Colorado has won 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Rockies have also won 15 of their last 21 road games when priced in the -125 to -175 range as the favorite. They give the ball to Marquez who is 7-3 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. The right-hander with the devastating curveball should be seeing better results according to the sabermetrics. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.70 and 3.44 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Marquez also struggles at home in Coors Field where he has been saddled with a 5.70 ERA along with a 1.60 WHIP. But in his eight starts on the road, Marquez has a nice 3.02 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Marquez had a 4.74 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 at home but saw all those numbers significantly improve when getting away from Coors Field on the road where he had a 2.95 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .203. Marquez comes off a strong start on the road in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday when he allowed just two runs (one earned) in 8 innings of work. Colorado has won 11 of their last 13 games with Marquez pitching with four days of rest. The Rockies have also won 6 straight games with Marquez on the mound against teams with a losing record. Marquez also thrives in day games given his 3.06 ERA in day games with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in five starts. Colorado has won 5 straight games with Marquez pitching in an afternoon game. He should pitch well against this slumping Giants’ lineup that is hitting only .204 over their last seven games with a .261 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .635. San Francisco has lost 29 of their last 39 third games of a series. The Giants are playing their ninth straight game against a fellow NL West opponent — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least six games in a row against division foes. San Francisco is just 16-22 at home this year — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Giants have also lost a decisive 44 of their last 61 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Samardzija who is 4-6 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in fifteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the former Notre Dame wide receiver with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for a rise in ERA to respective 4.84 and 5.11 marks moving forward. The right-hander has seen his numbers decline over the last few seasons. He has lost three miles-per-hour on his fastball than what he was clocking back in 2017. Samardzija has not been as effective during day games where he has a 4.35 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in six starts as compared to his more modest 4.15 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average at night. Last year, Samardzija had an 8.10 ERA with a 2.10 WHIP in day games. Additionally, San Francisco has lost 4 straight games with Samardzija pitching at home in AT&T Park — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games at home with Samardzija facing a team with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have lost 6 of their last 8 games with Samardzija pitching against the Rockies. Look for Marquez have the upper hand this afternoon. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (903) versus the San Francisco Giants (904) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-19 |
A's v. Cardinals UNDER 9 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (977) and the St. Louis Cardinals (978) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Oakland (41-38) has lost two of their last three games with their 8-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. St. Louis (40-37) looks to rebound from their 6-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Oakland bullpen pitched 6 innings in that game on Sunday — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen logged in at least 6 innings of work. The A’s have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Bassitt who is 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching on the road where he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in five starts. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-1 in the A’s last 5 games with Bassitt pitching against a National League opponent. He should pitch well against this slumping Cardinals team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .225 batting average along with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .635. St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after an off day. St. Louis stays at home where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Flaherty who is 4-4 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he owns a 2.49 ERA along with a 0.83 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in eight starts as compared to his 6.68 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 on the road. These disparate home-road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 2.93 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP at home as opposed to his 3.67 ERA and 1.16 WHIP when on the road. St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Flaherty on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has played 5 straight road games Under the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. 10* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (977) and the St. Louis Cardinals (978) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-19 |
Rays v. Twins -101 |
Top |
4-9 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (970) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (969) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (50-27) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 6-1 loss at Kansas City. Tampa Bay (45-33) has won two of their last three games after they defeated the A’s in Oakland by an 8-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has bounced-back to win 22 of their last 28 games after a loss — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than one run against a fellow AL Central opponent. The Twins have also won 20 of their last 28 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 11 games after an off day, Minnesota has won 9 of these contests. They return home where they have won 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gibson who is 7-4 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fourteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics for the veteran right-hander are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.97 and 3.62 moving forward. Gibson has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.62 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in six starts as compared to his 4.68 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Twins have won 4 of their last 5 games at home with Gibson on the hill — and they have also won 6 straight games with Gibson pitching with five days of rest. He should pitch well against this Rays team that has scored only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .219 batting average along with a .272 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .602 during that span. Tampa Bay has lost 4 straight games after a win — and they have lost 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Rays’ bullpen pitched 8 innings on Sunday as they used Ryne Stanek as their opener. Tampa Bay has then lost 16 of their last 22 games when their bullpen logged in at least seven innings in their last game. The Rays have lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Tampa Bay has lost 5 of these contests. They counter with Snell who is 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander comes off a disastrous outing where he only registered one out in Yankee Stadium while allowing six earned runs before being pulled. From suffering a freak accident which broke his toe to his allowing 2.2 Home Runs per 9 innings, this has been a down year for the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. Snell has been effective at home where he has a 3.28 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .218. But in his eight starts on the road, Snell sees those numbers explode to a 5.40 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257. The Rays have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road with Snell on the hill. He faces another tough test against this Twins team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .292 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .852 in those games. Minnesota has won 8 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Rays have lost 4 of their last 5 meetings against the Twins. Look for Minnesota to continue their recent dominance against Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Tuesday Night Special Feature with the money-line with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (970) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (969) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-19 |
Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (907) and the San Francisco Giants (908) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Drew Pomeranz. THE SITUATION: Colorado (40-37) enters this game on a three-game losing streak after their 6-3 loss at Los Angeles against the Dodgers. San Francisco (33-43) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 loss at Arizona yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Colorado has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Gray who is 7-5 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in fifteen starts (sixteen games). The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 3.47 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in seven appearances (six starts). But in Gray’s nine starts on the road, he sees those numbers rise to a 4.67 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. Gray had a 5.34 ERA on the road last season. The Over is 5-1-1 in Colorado’s last 7 games on the road with Gray on the hill. He faces a Giants’ team that has seen the Over go 3-0-2 in their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 8-3-2 in the Giants’ last 13 home games. They counter with Pomeranz who is 2-7 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in thirteen starts. Pomeranz’s teams have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with him pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. Pomeranz faces a Rockies team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 15-5-1 in San Francisco’s last 21 games when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. Expect a higher scoring game. 10* MLB Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (907) and the San Francisco Giants (908) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Drew Pomeranz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-19 |
Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 |
Top |
8-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (909) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Aaron Sanchez. THE SITUATION: New York (49-28) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 9-4 loss to Houston. Toronto (29-49) has won three of their last four games with their 6-1 win at Boston yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York had been crushing teams as they had outscored their previous six opponents by a whopping 60 to 23 mark while clubbing 17 home runs in those contests. The Yankees did extend their streak of hitting at least one home run to 26 games yesterday in their loss. The Bronx Bombers have bounced back to win 8 straight games after a loss by at least four runs — and they have won 27 of their last 33 games after allowing at least nine runs in their last contest. New York stays at home where they have won 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 4-4 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in twelve starts. The left-hander has been outstanding at home in Yankee Stadium where he owns a 2.18 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in six starts. The Yankees have won 29 of their last 39 home games with Sabathia on the hill. New York has also won 5 of their last 6 games with Sabathia facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Blue Jays team that has lost 27 of their last 36 road games against teams using a left-handed starting pitcher. Toronto has also lost 18 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Blue Jays have lost 12 of their last 15 games after a win — and they have lost 5 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. But the Toronto bullpen has logged in 10 2/3 innings of work — and they have lost 26 of their last 32 games when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. The Blue Jays have also lost 10 of their last 11 opening games to a new series. They counter with Sanchez who is 3-9 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in sixteen stats. The right-hander has really struggled after suffering a finger injury that required him to leave early in a start on May 27th. Since that outing, Sanchez has allowed 23 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings of work for an 11.09 ERA along with a 2.04 WHIP. He has struck out only nine batters during that span after failing to strike out a single batter in his last effort against the Angels. Sanchez has particularly struggled on the road where he has a 6.08 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296 in nine starts. Toronto has lost 9 of their last 10 games on the road with Sanchez on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees lineup that has scored 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .844 in those games. The Blue Jays have lost 6 of their last 8 games when playing the Yankees in New York. They also have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Sanchez pitching against the Yankees.
FINAL TAKE: While none of these team trends take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game, because Sanchez averages 4.9 innings per start, the Blue Jays fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 71% effective since 1997. Toronto is hitting .260 this season — and road underdogs who are not hitting above .260 using a starting pitcher who does not average at least 5 innings per start now facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced at last at +100) in 45 of these last 56 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League East Run-Line of the Year with the New York Yankees (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (909) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Aaron Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-19 |
Angels v. Cardinals -130 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-130 |
19 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (980) versus the Los Angeles Angeles (979) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (40-36) has won the opening two games of this series with their 4-2 victory over the Angels on Saturday. The Cardinals have won five of their last seven games as well as seven of their last ten contests. Los Angeles (38-40) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis may be just 16-21 on the road this season but they play much better at home in Busch Stadium where they have now won 7 of their last 10 games. The Cardinals have also won 13 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range — and they have won 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, St. Louis has won 22 of their last 28 games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. The right-hander comes off an impressive effort in his last start where he pitches 6 scoreless innings against at home against a Miami team that had just seen his stuff in his previous outing. The Cardinals have won 12 of their last 17 games with Mikolas looking to follow up a Quality Start. Mikolas has been a much better pitcher at home this season where he enjoys a 2.55 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in eight starts. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 2.17 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average at home as opposed to his 3.53 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .264 when on the road. St. Louis has won 12 of their last 16 home games with Mikolas on the mound. They also have won 9 straight games with Mikolas pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. And with the Cardinals using a six-man starting rotation right now, Mikolas is pitching with five days of rest for this start — and St. Louis has won a decisive 16 of their last 20 games when he is pitching with five days of rest. Los Angeles has lost 13 of their last 16 games after dropping the first two games of a series. The Angels are now just 19-24 on the road this year — and they have lost 22 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Los Angeles has also lost 5 of their last 6 road games in Interleague play. They counter with Skaggs who is 6-6 with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander comes off an encouraging outing where he allowed only one earned run in 7 1/3 innings of work in Toronto. That was his first Quality Start in his last eight starts — and the Angels have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Skaggs looking to follow up a Quality Start. Skaggs stays on the road for this start where he will not have the luxury of facing that light-hitting Blue Jays’ lineup. Skaggs has been much worse on the road where he has a 5.27 ERA along with a .261 batting average in eight starts as compared to his more modest 3.58 ERA along with a .233 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels have lost 5 straight games against the Cardinals — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against them playing in St. Louis. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (980) versus the Los Angeles Angeles (979) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-19 |
Padres v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
|
10-11 |
Win
|
104 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (955) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Joey Lucchesi and Steven Brault. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (35-40) has won three straight games with their 6-3 win over the Padres on Saturday. San Diego (38-39) has lost two straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 21-6-2 in the Pirates’ last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 18-6-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 26 games at home — and the Over is 10-1-2 in their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Over is 11-3-2 in the Pirates’ last 16 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Brault who is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in twelve appearances this season which includes six starts. The left-hander has struggled in day games where he has a 5.85 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. Brault has also not been as effective at home where he has a 4.67 ERA as compared to his 4.25 ERA on the road. Last season, Brault was saddled with a 6.00 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP and .258 opponent’s batting average at home in PNC Park as opposed to his 3.44 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .232 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates last 4 home games with Brault on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Padres lineup that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .286 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .838 in those games. The Over is also 6-2-2 in San Diego’s last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Over is 3-0-1 in the Padres’ last 4 games after a loss — and the Over is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 4-1-1 in San Diego’s last 6 games on the road — and the Over is 18-6-3 in their last 27 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They counter with Lucchesi who is 6-4 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has thrived at home in the spacious confines of Petco Park where he enjoys a 2.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in nine starts — but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.88 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in his five starts on the road. The Padres have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Lucchesi on the hill. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .857 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-1-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. We had a big play on the Over in the opening game of this series that did not come through — but I expect to see some of that back in this situation. 10* MLB Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (955) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Joey Lucchesi and Steven Brault. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-19 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (32-43) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 11-5 win over the Diamondbacks. Arizona (38-39) has lost five straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants played their fourth straight game Over the Total last night — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Fran’s last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have now played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL East opponents. Furthermore, the Giants have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 14-6-2 in their last 22 road games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 17 road games as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, San Francisco has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Beede who is 1-2 with a 6.67 ERA with a 1.91 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings of work. The former first-round pick picked up his first win in MLB on Monday in Los Angeles against the Dodgers — but he still has a troubling 6.75 ERA when pitching on the road. Beede has also struggled in night games where he has a 7.97 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. The rookie has an uninspiring 32:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Beede on the mound as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Arizona has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least five runs. This team has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Godley who is 3-4 with a 6.52 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in fifteen appearances which include eleven starts. The right-hander has been clobbered when pitching at home in Chase Field where he has a 7.09 ERA in eight games which includes five starts. Godley also is saddled with a 7.33 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 in six starts (eleven appearances) at night. The seeds in Godley’s decline were evident last year where his Ground Ball rate declined by 6.5% while his walk rate of 4.09 Bases-on-Balls per 9 innings was over 1.0 Walk higher per 9 innings than in 2017. Godley will not pitch deep into this game — especially when considering that he had an ugly 9.20 ERA when going through the batting order for the third time last year. But the Arizona bullpen has struggled with a 7.22 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP in their last seven games. The Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Godley facing a team with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. These two teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total. Expect another higher-scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-19 |
Rays v. A's -107 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (920) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (919) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Yonny Chirinos. THE SITUATION: Oakland (40-37) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last night with a 5-3 loss to the Rays. Tampa Bay (44-32) had lost four games in a row before their victory last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has bounced-back to win 4 straight games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The A’s have also still won 4 of their last 5 games at home. They turn to Fiers who is 7-3 with a 4.38 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in sixteen starts this season. The right-hander has been on fire as of late in a good stretch that started with his no-hitter at home against Cincinnati back on May 7th. Starting with that triumph, Fiers has a 5-0 record in eight starts with a 2.45 ERA. Fiers has been much better at home all season where he owns a 3.28 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in eight starts. Over his last four starts at home, Fiers is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA. Oakland has won 11 of their last 14 home games with Fiers on the hill. He should thrive against this slumping Rays team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .211 batting average along with a .211 batting average, .262 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .609 over that stretch. Tampa Bay has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in the last game. The Rays’ bullpen was called on to pitch 7 innings last night — and they have then lost 15 of their last 21 games after a game where their bullpen logged in at least 7 innings of work. Tamp Bay gas lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Chirinos who is 703 with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in nine starts and fifteen appearances this season. The right-hander has been not quite as effective on the road where he has a 3.23 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP in four starts and seven total games. Considering that Chirinos had a 1.39 WHIP with a .278 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Rays have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Chironis pitching with four days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting A’s team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .274 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .871 over that span. FINAL TAKE: Oakland has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Look for the A’s to bounce-back with a win this afternoon. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the money-line on the Oakland A’s (920) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (919) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Yonny Chirinos. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-19 |
Mets v. Cubs -125 |
|
10-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the New York Mets (901) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Zack Wheeler. THE SITUATION: New York (36-40) had lost three of their last four games before defeating the Cubs in the second game of this series last night by a 5-4 score. Chicago (41-34) had won two straight games before suffering that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mets have lost 4 straight games after a loss — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have still lost 21 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. They give the ball to Wheeler who is 5-5 with a 4.94 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.55 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and a .296 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. New York has lost 5 of the last 6 games on the road with Wheeler on the mound — and they have lost 4 straight road games with Wheeler facing a team with a winning record. Wheeler has also struggled in day games where he has a 6.70 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP in seven starts. He faces a Cubs team that has won 4 of the last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has won 12 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. The Cubs have also won 24 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss by just one run. Chicago has won 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have won a decisive 46 of their last 62 home games against teams with a losing record. The Cubbies have also won 25 of their last 33 games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range. They counter with Quintana who is 4-6 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.98 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in seven starts. Chicago has won 21 of their last 30 home games with Quintana on the hill — and they have won 10 of their last 13 home games with Quintana facing a team with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 10 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams — and they have also lost 7 of their last 9 games against the Cubs when playing in Wrigley Field. Chicago should rebound with a win with Quintana out-pitching Wheeler. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the New York Mets (901) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Zack Wheeler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-19 |
White Sox v. Rangers -136 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-136 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (972) versus the Chicago White Sox (971) listing both starting pitchers Ariel Jurado and Reynaldo Lopez. THE SITUATION: Texas (40-35) begins this series looking to build off their 4-2 win over Cleveland last night. Chicago (35-37) has lost three of their last four games with their 7-3 defeat in Chicago to the Cubs on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas has won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Rangers stay at home where they have won 16 of their last 23 games — and they have won 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record. Texas has also won 21 of their last 31 games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They give the ball to Jurado who is 4-3 this season with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in fifteen appearances with six starts. The right-hander will be looking to redeem himself from a bad effort in Cincinnati where he allowed 7 runs in 3 innings of work. Jurado should be very focused for this start — and he does pitch much better at home where he has a 3.10 ERA along with a 1.38 WHIP in seven games with three starts. The Rangers have won 4 straight home games with Jurado on the hill. Jurado also pitches better at night where he has a 3.51 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP — and Texas has won 3 straight games at night with Jurado making the start. He should pitch well against this White Sox team that has lost 24 of their last 33 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Chicago has also lost 6 of their last 8 road games when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The White Sox stay on the road where they have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Chicago has also lost 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 10 or higher — and they have lost 6 straight road games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They counter with Lopez who is 4-7 with a 6.31 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where he owns a 7.28 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in six starts. The White Sox have lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Lopez on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Lopez will likely get rocked by a Rangers team that is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .266 batting average along with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .809. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (972) versus the Chicago White Sox (971) listing both starting pitchers Ariel Jurado and Reynaldo Lopez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-19 |
Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (955) and the Washington Nationals (956) listen both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (44-31) has won three of their last four games after their 7-2 win over the New York Mets on Wednesday. Washington (36-38) has won four in a row with their 7-4 win over Philadelphia yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals stay at home where the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Over is also 5-2-1 in Washington’s last 8 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Strasburg who is 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.74 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in his seven starts as compared to his 2.92 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .199 on the road. The Over is a decisive 38-13-2 in the Nationals’ last 53 home games with Strasburg on the hill — and the Over is also 20-6-1 in their last 27 home games with Strasburg facing a team with a winning record. Washington has also played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Strasburg on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .323 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .960 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is 13-3-1 in the Braves’ last 17 games after a win — and the Over is 21-5-2 in their last 28 games after an off day. Additionally, Atlanta has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Keuchel who is making his debut with this team after signing as a free agent midseason. The left-hander was 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP last year for the Astros. But Keuchel was not as effective on the road last year where he had a 1.34 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average in the pitcher-friendly Minute Maid Park. His first start of 2019 comes against a Nats team swing good bats right now as they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .264 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .833 in those games. The Over is 5-1-2 in the Nationals’ last 8 games when facing left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 4-1-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 18-7-1 in the last 26 games between these NL East rivals. With both teams hitting the ball well right now, expect another high-scoring game. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (955) and the Washington Nationals (956) listen both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-19 |
Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: San Diego (38-37) comes off a four-game sweep of the Brewers after their 8-7 victory on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (33-40) has won two of their last three games with their 8-7 win over Detroit on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-4-1 in the Padres’ last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games after an off day. The Padres have played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after a win. And while the San Diego bullpen did not allow a run in their last game against the Brewers, they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run. The Padres stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lauer who is 5-6 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has thrived in the spacious confirms of Petco Park where he has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 7.81 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in his six starts on the road. The Over is 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games on the road with Lauer on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .855 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Over is 14-4-2 in the Pirates’ last 20 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Over is 21-5-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Pirates have played 8 straight home games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Pittsburgh stays at home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen appearances) this year. The left-hander has particularly struggled at home where he has a 5.71 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in six starts. The Pirates have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Musgrove on the hill. He also faces a hot-hitting team right now with the Padres scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .331 batting average along with a .391 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .961 in those games. San Diego has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played in mid-May with the Pirates winning the last three games on the road despite being the underdog. The Padres have played 23 of their last 31 road games Over the Total when playing with at least double revenge after being upset as a home favorite in their last two games with their current opponent. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-19 |
Mets v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
|
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (951) and the Chicago Cubs (952) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-33) won the opening game of this series yesterday with a 7-4 victory over the Mets. New York (35-40) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 8 straight second games to a new series Over the Total. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 22 of their last 35 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Darvish who is 2-3 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in fifteen starts this year. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.89 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in seven starts. Darvish is allowing more ground balls — but his strikeouts are down and his bases-on-balls are up. He is walking a career-high 13% of the batters he has faced — and his K%-BB% ratio differential of 13% is the lowest of his career. He is also experiencing a career-high Home Run-to-Fly Ball ratio of 22.2% which makes him pitching this afternoon in Wrigley Field a dangerous proposition. Darvish has a 6.75 ERA in his four starts in afternoon games this year with a 2.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .308. The Cubs have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Darvish on the hill. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .278 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .807 over that span. New York has seen the Over go 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have now played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total — and the Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, New York has played a whopping 20 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as a big underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. They counter with Vargas who is 3-3 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in eleven starts (twelve appearances). The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.20 and 5.14 moving forward. Vargas has done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.79 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 — but those numbers rise to a 4.78 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in his six starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after last night’s game when playing in Wrigley Field. Expect another high scoring game this afternoon. 10* MLB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (951) and the Chicago Cubs (952) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-19 |
Angels v. Blue Jays OVER 10 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (917) and the Toronto Blue Jays (918) listing both starting pitchers Josh Suarez and Clayton Richard. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (38-37) has won the first three games of this series — and they have won seven of their last nine games — after their 11-6 victory over the Blue Jays last night. Toronto (26-48) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 10-4-1 in the Angels’ last 15 games after a win — and the Over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 6 games on the road, the Over is 4-1-1. They give Suarez his fourth start of the season to further his 2-1 record along with a 4.50 ER and a 1.25 WHIP in 16 innings of work. The deeper sabermetrics for the rookie are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.09 and 5.57 moving forward (albeit from a small sample size). The right-hander has not finished six full innings in his three starts this year — so the Angels’ bullpen will play a big role tonight. That group has a 4.97 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP over their last seven games. Suarez and the bullpen face a Blue Jays team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games. The Blue Jays have also seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games — and the Over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Richard who is 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA with a 1.77 WHIP in five starts in a season where he started the year on the disabled list. In three starts at home, Richard has seen his ERA rise to a 7.94 mark. The Toronto bullpen is not likely to offer much help either as they have a 7.22 ERA over their last seven games with a 1.78 WHIP over that span.
LAST TAKE: The Angels are also swinging good bats right now as they are scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .268 batting average along with a .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .851 over that span. The Over is 3-1-1 in LA’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (917) and the Toronto Blue Jays (918) listing both starting pitchers Josh Suarez and Clayton Richard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-19 |
Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
2-9 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (961) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Drew Pomeranz. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-25) won the second game of this series last night by a 9-0 score. The Dodgers have won four of their last six games. San Francisco (31-40) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE LOS ANGELES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Dodgers have won 11 of their last 16 games after a win — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. While the fact that the Dodgers have now won 25 of their last 31 home games when priced at least at -150 might compel most bettors to take their chances investing in the higher price, that would be the less profitable path this season. Los Angeles has been a home favorite priced above my -150 threshold 32 times this season after last night — and they have won 22 of those games by more than one run to produce a much better yield overall. We had the Dodgers on Monday minus the -1.5 Run-Line — and while their 3-2 loss was disappointing, it would have been a much worse loss if we invested on LA as a -230 favorite. They give the ball to Hill who is 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.03 WHIP along with a .226 opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 13 home games with Hill on the mound — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games with him facing a team with a winning record. Hill comes off a strong start where he allowed only three runs in 7 innings of work against the Cubs — and LA has won 19 of their last 26 home games with Hill following up a Quality Start. He should thrive against this Giants team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers while hitting just .214 against lefties with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .602. San Francisco has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower. The Giants have lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the San Fran bullpen surrendered six runs last night, they have then lost 16 of their last 24 games after their bullpen allowed at least five runs in their last contest. The Giants have lost 12 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range — and they have also lost a decisive 19 of their last 23 games as a big money-line underdog priced in the +200 to +330 range. They counter with Pomeranz who is 2-8 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in twelve starts. The left-hander has really struggled on the road where his ERA rises to an 8.87 mark along with him carrying a 1.93 WHIP and an opponent’s ERA of .316 in those six starts. He faces a Dodgers lineup that scores 5.5 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .279 batting average along with a .354 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .852. LA has won 6 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 13 of their last 17 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, because the Dodgers’ bullpen has a WHIP of 1.21 for the season, LA is supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 71% effective over the last five seasons. Pomeranz is averaging only 4 1/3 innings per start — and teams with a bullpen ERA of 1.25 or lower facing a team with a starting pitcher who does not average at least 5 innings per start have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -190 to +100 range) in 64 of the last 90 situations where these conditions applied. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (961) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Drew Pomeranz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-19 |
White Sox v. Cubs UNDER 7 |
Top |
3-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (979) and the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (35-36) won the opening game of this series last night with their 3-1 victory. The White Sox have won four of their last six games while the Cubs (39-33) has lost four of their last five contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. And while the White Sox have not committed an error in three straight games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after not committing an error in two straight contests. This team has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 46-21-3 in their last 70 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Giolito who is 10-1 with a 2.22 ERA and a WHIP of 0.95 in thirteen starts. The young phenom has allowed only one earned run over his last three starts for a minuscule 0.43 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP over 21 innings. The right-hander has been particularly effective on the road where he owns a 1.48 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .156 in six starts. The White Sox have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with Giolito on the hill — and this includes them playing their last 4 road games Under the Total with him on the hill. The White Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Giolito looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a low .223 batting average along with a .270 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .635.
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06-19-19 |
Mets v. Braves -140 |
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2-7 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
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At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (956) versus the New York Mets (955) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: New York (35-38) won the second game of this series yesterday with their 10-2 victory behind Jacob DeGrom. The Mets had lost four of their last five games before that victory. Atlanta (43-31) has still won ten of their last twelve games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has lost 4 of the last 5 games after a win. The Mets have also lost 21 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have lost 12 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record. New York has also 22 of their last 32 games after playing their last two games on the road. They give the ball to Matz who is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.25 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 — but he sees those numbers rise to a 5.79 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in seven starts on the road. The Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Matz on the mound. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 8.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .332 batting average along with a .392 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .969 over that span. Atlanta has won 6 straight games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Braves have still won 9 of their last 11 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Fried who is 7-3 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in fourteen starts (sixteen appearances). The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.54 ERA in seven starts along with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .240. Atlanta has won 6 straight games with Fried pitching with four days of rest. He faces a Mets team that lost 6 of their last 8 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves should find their bats again after being stymied by the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. Atlanta has won 6 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with money-line on the Atlanta Braves (956) versus the New York Mets (955) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-18-19 |
Mets v. Braves +116 |
Top |
10-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
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At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Julio Teheran and Jacob DeGrom. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (43-30) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 12-3 win over the Mets yesterday in the opening game of this series. New York (34-38) has lost two straight as well as four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta is a very intriguing money-line underdog as they are currently the hottest team in baseball. They are dogs in this game because they are facing the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner — but the Braves have scored at least five runs in ten of their last eleven games while outscoring their last two opponents by a whopping 27 to 4 margin. Atlanta has won 8 of their last 9 games after a win — and they have won 21 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have been very tough to beat at home in SunTrust Park where they have won 9 of their last 10 games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Teheran who is 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in fifteen starts. Over his last eight starts, the veteran right-hander has an outstanding 0.81 ERA — and he has not allowed a home run since April 30th. Teheran has been great at home where he owns a 1.85 ERA in six starts. Atlanta has won 6 straight home games with Teheran on the hill — and they have won 5 straight home games with Teheran facing a team with a losing record. Additionally, the Braves have pulled the upset in a whopping 14 of their last 16 games with Teheran pitching as the underdog — and this includes six straight wins with him pitching as a home dog. He faces a Mets team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least ten runs in their last game. The Mets have also lost 21 of their last 27 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with DeGrom who is 3-6 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has been not quite as effective on the road in seven starts where opponents are hitting .238 against him as opposed to his .227 opponent’s batting average at home. But his teammates rarely seem to provide him much run support as the Mets have lost 5 straight games on the road. New York has also lost 8 of their last 10 games with DeGrom pitching as the favorite. He does come off a strong outing where he allowed only two runs in 7 innings of work against the Cardinals — but the Mets have lost 4 straight games with DeGrom looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .350 batting average along with a .414 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.042 over that span. Atlanta is also scoring a robust 5.9 Runs-Per-Game at home this season with a .281 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .853. The Braves have won 10 of their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 6 of their last 7 games with DeGrom making the start against the Braves — and this includes them losing four straight games on the road in Atlanta. New York has also lost 5 of their last 7 games in SunTrust Park against the Braves. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Julio Teheran and Jacob DeGrom. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-17-19 |
Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-119 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (959) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Tyler Beede. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (48-24) closed out their four-game series with the Cubs last night by winning three of those four games with a 3-2 victory. San Francisco (30-39) saw their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday with a 5-3 loss at home to Milwaukee.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 11 of their last 15 games after a win — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. LA stays at home in Dodgers Stadium where they have won 39 of their last 51 games. While the fact that the Dodgers have now won 24 of their last 29 home games when priced at least at -150 might compel most bettors to take their chances investing in the higher price, that would be the less profitable path this season. Los Angeles has been a home favorite priced above my -150 threshold 30 times this season after last night — and they have won 21 of those games by more than one run to produce a much better yield overall. We had the Dodgers with the Run-Line last night — and, frankly, we should have seen a payout if not for manager Dave Roberts mismanaging things in the bottom of the 6th inning when his team had runners on second-and-third with no outs (for starters, he should have pinch hit for pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu when he was up with one out with two runners in scoring position — Ryu struck out instead). They send out Maeda who is 7-3 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been dominant at home where he owns a 1.69 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .145 in five starts. Los Angeles has won 5 straight home games with Maeda on the mound — and they have won 4 straight home games with Maeda facing the Giants. He should pitch well once again against this Giants team that has lost 25 of their last 35 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. San Francisco has lost 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Giants have lost a decisive 40 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, San Francisco has not won many games as a big underdog as they have lost 18 of their last 21 games as a money-line dog priced at least at +200 — and this includes them losing eleven of their last thirteen road games priced at +200 or higher. They counter with Beede who is 0-2 with an 8.06 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP in 22 1/3 innings of work. The rookie right-hander has pitched 15 1/3 of those innings on the road where he has been hit hard given his 8.80 ERA along with a 2.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .313. He faces a powerful Dodgers’ lineup that is scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .279 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .852. LA has won 40 of their last 53 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants are looking to avenge a 1-0 loss to the Dodgers back on June 9th — but they have lost 25 of their last 34 road games when playing with revenge from a one-run loss in their last meetings. That is not a good sign for a San Fran team that has lost 9 of their last 13 meetings with the Dodgers. Rather than paying the higher price on LA, the recent history makes it clear that the better investment is to lower the price by laying the -1.5 Run-Line. Lastly, because Maeda did not last five complete innings in his last start, the Dodgers are supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 72% effective over the last five seasons. LA has a bullpen WHIP of 1.22 — and teams with a bullpen WHIP of 1.25 or lower using a starting pitcher who did not finish the 5th inning in his last start have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 64 of these last 89 situations (when priced at +100 to -190). 10* MLB Monday Late Show Run-Line Bailout with the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (959) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Tyler Beede. Best of luck for us — Frank
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06-17-19 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
3-12 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
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At 7:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: New York (34-37) has lost three of their last four games with their 4-3 loss to St. Louis yesterday. Atlanta (42-30) has won nine of their last ten games after they crushed Philadelphia yesterday by a 15-1 score on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 10-1-1 in the Braves’ last 12 games after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta’s bullpen has pitched 9 1/3 combined innings over their last two games — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged in at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. The Over is also 12-3-1 in the Braves’ last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Soroka who is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in eleven starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish on the rookie right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.93 and 3.59 moving forward. Soroka opened the season with an unsustainable low Batting Average for the Balls he Allowed Into Play (BABIP) and Home Run to Fly Ball rate — and the that he is still leaving 77.6% of the runners left on base when retiring the side is well above the league average. But the right-hander has seen the Regression Gods already visit him a few times this month as he has a 4.12 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP over his last three starts while striking out only 14 batters in 19 2/3 innings of work. Soroka has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.03 mark along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in five starts as compared to his filthy 1.11 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .154 opponent’s batting average on the road. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Soroka facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, New York has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total in night games. They counter with Wheeler who is 5-4 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has a 5.48 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in seven starts. The Over is 7-3-2 in the Mets’ last 12 road games with Wheeler on the mound. The Over is also 6-0-2 in New York’s last 8 games with Wheeler pitching on five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 9.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .342 batting average along with a .402 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.056 over that span. Atlanta is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have scored at least nine runs twelve times this season. They face a pitcher in Wheeler who has already surrendered 13 home runs this season. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-19 |
Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (913) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Chicago (39-31) had lost four of their last five games before they eked out the third game of this series yesterday with their 2-1 victory over Los Angeles. The Dodgers (47-24) won the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cubs did not commit an error for the fourth straight game yesterday — but they have then lost 10 of their last 15 games after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Chicago remains a troubling 15-20 on the road this season. The Cubs have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, Chicago has lost 8 of their last 10 road games when an underdog priced at least at +150. They give the ball to Quintana who is 4-6 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP this season in thirteen games (fourteen appearances). The deeper sabermetrics are troubling for the left-hander. For starters, his hard-hit rate stands at 37.8% of the batted-balls he is allowing into play which is the highest of his career after last year’s high of 33.5%. Quintana has been at his best when he is not walking batters while inducing lightly hit fly balls. But he walked four batters in 4 2/3 innings of work in his last start. Quintana’s fly ball rate to his lowest since 2015 while his decision to trust his infield has led to a ground ball rate of the balls he is allowing into play of 47.3% which is the highest in his career. His strikeout rate of 20.8% of the batters he faces is also his lowest since 2015. The lefty is throwing first ball strikes while increasing the use of his sinker — but both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.41 and 4.14 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Quintana has done his best pitching at home in Wrigley Field where he enjoys a 2.98 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in seven starts — but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.13 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .281 when he is on the road. The Cubs have lost 9 of their last 12 road games with Quintana on the hill. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .280 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .856. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers have also won 13 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has won 9 of their last 11 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won 51 of their last 76 games after a loss — and they have won 37 of their last 51 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. LA has also still won an incredible 21 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 18 of their last 22 games after playing their last three games at home. While the fact that the Dodgers have won 23 of their last 28 home games when priced at least at -150 might compel most bettors to take their chances investing in the higher price, that would be the less profitable path this season. Los Angeles has been a home favorite priced above my -150 threshold 29 times this season — and they have won 21 of those games by more than one run to produce a much better yield overall. They count on Ryu tonight who is enjoying a sensational season with his 9-1 record along with a 1.36 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in thirteen starts. The issue for the left-hander has been more about durability than overall talent. Ryu enters this game with an eye-popping 77:5 strikeout to walk ratio in 80 innings of work. Led by one of the best changeups in baseball, Ryu has been nearly unhittable at home where he has a 1.01 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP and .172 opponent’s batting average in six starts. We have to expect some regression is inevitable with gaudy numbers like that — but remember that Ryu had a 1.97 ERA last year overall with 1.15 ERA at home along with a 0.90 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average so his spectacular 2019 did not come out of nowhere. The Dodgers have won 39 of their last 55 home games with Ryu on the hill including all six this season. LA has also won 5 straight home games with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. And in his last 26 starts when priced as a favorite at -150 or higher, the Dodgers have won 21 of those games. He faces a Cubs team that has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 7 of their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite to their opponent. The Cubs have still lost 9 of their last 12 games in Dodger Stadium against the men in blue. Rather than paying the higher price on LA, the recent history makes it clear that the better investment is to lower the price by laying the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (913) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-19 |
Rangers +1.5 v. Reds |
Top |
3-11 |
Loss |
-132 |
4 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Rangers (929) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (930) listing both starting pitchers Ariel Jurado and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Texas (38-32) has won the first two games of this series — as well as six of their last nine contests — after taking Game Two of this series yesterday by a 4-3 score. Cincinnati (30-38) has now lost six of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Texas has now won 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Rangers have now won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games in Interleague play. This team is big money-line underdogs due to the betting public’s lack of faith in Jurado despite his 4-2 record along with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 41 2/3 innings in fourteen appearances including five starts this season. The 23-year-old right-hander has rattled off four straight Quality Starts due in large part because he is inducing ground balls in 50.8% of the batted balls he is allowing into play. While not a phenom, Jurado has always been an intriguing prospect given his career 53% ground ball rate in the minor leagues allow with a sub-2.0 walks per 9 innings rate. Improved velocity this season has helped improve the effectiveness of his sinker. Jurado has also been more effective on the road where he has a 2.95 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in 21 1/3 innings which includes two starts as opposed to his 3.10 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average at home. Jurado comes off a solid start in Boston where he allowed three runs on just five hits in 6 innings of work. The Rangers have won 4 of their last 5 games with Jurado looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a slumping Reds lineup that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .199 batting average along with a .275 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .625 over that span. Cincinnati has lost 7 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Reds have also lost 7 of their last 10 third games in a series after losing the first two games. Additionally, Cincinnati has lost 4 straight games at home as well as 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 30 games played in the day, the Reds have lost 21 of these games. They counter with Gray who is 2-5 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where his ERA rises to a 4.09 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in seven starts in the Great American Ballpark as compared to his 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average on the road. Gray also sees his ERA rise to a 3.81 mark in his six starts during the day — and the Cincy has lost 4 of their last 6 day games with Gray on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers’ bats should keep them competitive in this game as they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .270 batting average along with a .338 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817. Texas has won 13 of their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. With the Reds being a money-line favorite priced in the -170 range, that lowers the price on the Rangers getting the valuable +1.5 Run-Line below my -150 price threshold. Let’s attack! 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Texas Rangers (929) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (930) listing both starting pitchers Ariel Jurado and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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