08-02-18 |
Padres v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (959) and the Chicago Cubs (960) listing both starting pitchers Robbie Erlin and Mike Montgomery. THE SITUATION: San Diego (42-68) has lost seven straight games after their 3-2 loss to the Giants on Tuesday. Chicago (62-45) has won two of their last three games after they defeated the Pirates in Pittsburgh by a 9-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after an off day — and the Over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games are a loss. Additionally, San Diego has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They turn to Erlin to make this start for Luis Perdomo — he is 1-3 with a 3.47 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP this season. The left-hander has a 2.37 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 at home in Petco Park — but he sees those numbers rise to a 5.40 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .298 when pitching on the road. The Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Erlin facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Chicago has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win. The Cubs have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total. They counter with Montgomery who is 3-4 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP this season. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 4.93 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .299. Montgomery’s sabermetrics also call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.57 and 4.49. He faces a Padres team that has seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is also 4-1-1 in San Diego’s last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a higher scoring game in the muggy Chicago heat in a game between two starting pitchers that toggle back and forth between the bullpen and the starting rotation. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (959) and the Chicago Cubs (960) listing both starting pitchers Robbie Erlin and Mike Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-01-18 |
Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
|
4-6 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (63-47) won the second game of this series last night with their 1-0 victory over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles (59-49) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Furthermore, while Los Angeles is hitting just .102 over their last three games (9 of 88), they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to have a team batting average of at least .200 over their last three games. The Dodgers have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Hill who is 4-4 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in thirteen starts (14 games). Hill has been outstanding since come off the disabled list dealing with blisters. The left-hander has a 2.55 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP over his last ten starts along with a 3-1 record with a 2.42 ERA over his last five starts. He comes off seven shutout innings of work in Atlanta in his last start — and his teams have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when he is following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. Milwaukee (63-47) has played 28 of their last 37 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Brewers also played 11 of their last 12 road games last August Under the Total. And in their last 19 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, Milwaukee has played 13 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Anderson who is 7-7 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in ten starts. The Under is 13-3-1 in the Brewers’ last 17 road games with Anderson on the mound. He should thrive against this struggling Dodgers’ lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .183 batting average along with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .584 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. Expect another low-scoring game. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-31-18 |
Astros v. Mariners +1.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (974) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Seattle (63-43) won the opening game of this series last night with a 2-0 victory over the Astros.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle is tough at home in Safeco Field where they have won 26 of their last 35 games — and they have also won 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They give the ball to Leake who is 8-6 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in eleven starts as compared to his 1.33 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average of .282 on the road. The Mariners have won 5 of their last 7 home games with Leake on the hill. He should fare well against depleted Astros’ lineup missing two key sluggers in Jose Altuve and Chris Correa. Over their last seven games, Houston (67-41) is scoring just 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .186 batting average along with a .258 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .572 over that span. The Astros have lost 5 straight games after a loss (for a five-game losing streak) — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, the Houston bullpen has struggled as of late — their bullpen has an ERA of 8.82 over their last five games and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games after enduring a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or worse over their last seven games. While help is on the way with yesterday’s swap of the banished Ken Giles to Toronto to Roberto Osuna, their likely new closer is not eligible to return from his 75-day suspension until Sunday. The Astros counter with Morton who is 11-2 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.91 mark along with a 1.25 WHIP in eight starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.38 and 3.20 moving forward. Houston has lost 4 straight games with Morton facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Mariners team that has won 20 of their last 26 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Astros have a team batting average of just .210 over their last fifteen games, they fall into an empirical angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 69% effective over the last five seasons. Houston’s bullpen has not allowed an earned run in their last two games — but favorites with a team batting average of .240 or less over their last fifteen games with a bullpen that has not allowed an earned run in two straight games have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the +135 to -190 price range) in 68 of these last 98 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: While I find Seattle a solid play with the money-line, I much prefer investing in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that price being under my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Month with the Seattle Mariners (974) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-31-18 |
Angels v. Rays UNDER 7.5 |
|
6-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (965) and the Tampa Bay Rays (966) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Ryne Stanek. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (54-53) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 8-5 loss to Seattle. Tampa Bay (53-53) has lost three in a row with their 11-5 loss in Baltimore on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels have seen the Under go 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an off day. Additionally, the Under is 7-2-1 in the Angels’ last 10 games on the road. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 8-6 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.11 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in ten starts. Skaggs comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work against the White Sox — and LA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Skaggs following up a Quality Start. He faces a Rays team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .294 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .683 over that span. The Under is 15-4-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 21 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rays have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an off day. The Under is also 25-9-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 36 games against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against winning teams. They counter with Stanek who is 1-3 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in bullpen work and spot starts that initiate their bullpen shifts in lieu of a traditional starting pitcher. .Stanek has a microscopic 0.45 ERA with a .157 opponent’s batting average at home — and the Under is 6-0-1 in the Rays’ last 8 home games with Stanek making the start. He faces an Angels team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP no higher than 1.15. — and he will be supported by a bullpen that has a 2.78 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP at home this year.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (965) and the Tampa Bay Rays (966) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Ryne Stanek. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-18 |
Brewers v. Dodgers -145 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-145 |
4 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Freddy Peralta. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (59-46) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 4-1 loss in Atlanta. Milwaukee (61-47) also saw their three-game winning streak yesterday with their 8-5 loss in San Francisco.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has bounced-back to win 17 of their last 21 games after a loss — and they have won 4 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Dodgers return home for the first time since July 15th — and they have won 16 of their last 21 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. LA has also won 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 27 of their last 39 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Maeda who is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in nineteen appearances (seventeen starts). Over his last ten starts, Maeda has a 2.72 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. The right-hander has been tough at home where he has an ERA of 2.74. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 12 home games with Maeda facing a team with a winning record. He should fare well against this Brewers team that has lost 9 of their last 12 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee (61-47) has lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers have also lost 10 of their last 14 games on the road. They counter with Peralta who is 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in eight starts. But the right-hander sees his WHIP rise to a 1.15 make on the road as compared to his 0.84 WHIP when at home. Furthermore, Milwaukee has lost 3 of their last 4 games with Peralta making the start this month. He faces a Dodgers’ lineup infused with Manny Machado who has won 6 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers opened as money-line favorites in the -165 range last night — but that price has dropped below my -150 threshold in enough locations where I am comfortable endorsing this play. 20* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Freddy Peralta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-18 |
Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 |
|
3-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the Atlanta Braves (902) listing both starting pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Miami (46-61) has won two straight games with their 5-0 win over Washington yesterday. Atlanta (55-47) snapped a four-game losing streak with Sean Newcomb’s near no-hitter 4-1 win over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 22-10-2 in the Marlins’ last 34 games after a win — and they have also played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a shutout win. Additionally, Miami has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 17 of their last 21 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. They give the ball to Chen who is 3-7 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he sees his ERA skyrocket to a 10.47 mark with a 2.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .359 in eight starts. The Marlins have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Chen on the hill. He faces a Braves team that has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Braves have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL East foes. They give the ball to Teheran who is 7-7 with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has an alarming 40.1% Hard-Hit Rate by opposing batters which helps explain why his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.68 and 4.72 moving forward. Teheran has not been as effective at home either where he has a 1.27 WHIP an d an opponent’s batting average of .214 in ten starts as compared to his 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206. The Braves have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Teheran facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Marlins team that has played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these pitchers should struggle in the muggy hot air in Hotlanta playing in a hitter’s ballpark. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the Atlanta Braves (902) listing both starting pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-18 |
Phillies v. Red Sox -139 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (916) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (915) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Boston (74-33) has won three straight games with their 3-0 win over the Twins yesterday. Philadelphia (58-47) has lost three in a row after their 4-0 loss to Cincinnati.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won a decisive 37 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Red Sox have also won 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 23 of their last 28 games in Interleague play. Additionally, Boston has won 23 of their last 31 games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Price who is 11-6 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.69 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .229 in eight starts as compared to his 4.50 ERA with a .254 opponent’s batting average on the road. He should fare well against this Phillies team that has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 8 of their last 11 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. The Phillies have also lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 17 games played in Boston. They counter with Nola who is 12-3 with a 2.42 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.86 mark. The sabermetrics also raise concerns as both Nola’s SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.50 and 3.53 moving forward. Philadelphia has lost 10 of their last 14 road games with Nola facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Getting the opportunity to invest in the Red Sox at home in Fenway Park when they are priced below -150 is uncommon (which it was was in most locations when I released this play Sunday night — the price has moved up this afternoon. While there are still -150s available, this is still a strong play even if you have to pay a price higher than that. Nola’s presence on the mound for the Phillies is why this price is lower — but he is not nearly as invincible on the road as he is when pitching at home in Philadelphia where his ERA is 1.99. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (916) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (915) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-18 |
Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (53-51) has won three of their last four games after winning the second game of this series yesterday by a 6-2 score over the Cubs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, St. Louis has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 36 games Over the Total as an underdog. They give the ball to Gant who is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in seven starts (and fourteen appearances). The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander has been overachieving as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.79 and 4.75 respectively moving forward. Gant is making his first start since July 21st (while pitching an inning of relief on Wednesday) — and the Cards have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Gant pitching with at least seven days between starts. He faces a Cubs team that has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Gant will likely not get much support from his bullpen in this game either as the St. Louis bullpen has a 5.47 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP over the last seven days. Chicago (60-44) has lost four of their last six games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Cubs have also played 7 of their last 8 third games of a series Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NL Central foes. They counter with Hendricks who is 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.70 mark along with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Hendricks facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these starting pitchers will likely give up their share of runs tonight. Look for a higher-scoring game on national television tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-18 |
Nationals v. Marlins +1.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami Marlins (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (907) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Richards and Gio Gonzalez. THE SITUATION: Miami (44-61) has lost four of their last five games after they lost the second game of this series last night to the Mets by a 9-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Miami was outhit by a whopping 16 to 3 margin last night — but they have then won 5 straight games after being outhit by at least 10 hits in their last game. The Marlins have also won 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 22 games after failing to score more than one run. Miami has also won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Miami has won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Richards who is 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has been much better at home where he owns a 3.62 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP in six starts. The Marlins have won 4 of their last 5 games with Richards pitching after a game where they allowed at least five runs in their last game. He faces a Nationals team that has lost 13 of their last 19 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington (52-51) has lost 12 of their last 16 games after a win — and they have also lost 12 of their last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have lost 8 of their last 10 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Gonzalez who is 6-7 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in twenty starts. The left-hander struggles on the road where his ERA rises to a 4.60 mark. Washington has lost 5 straight road games with Gonzalez on the hill — and they have also lost 13 of their last 17 road games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range with Gonzalez on the hill. Lastly, because the Marlins lost the opening game of this series by a 10-3 score, they are supported by a historical angle that has been 80% effective since 1997. Miami has a .244 team batting average this season — and National League teams with a batting average of .250 or less who have lost their last two games by at least six runs in both contests have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 44 of the last 55 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: The Marlins are a worthwhile investment as the money-line underdog — but with the Run-Line price below my -150 threshold, I much prefer investing in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami Marlins (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (907) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Richards and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-18 |
Mets v. Pirates +1.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jacob DeGrom. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (54-51) got back to their winning ways last night by winning the second game of this series over the Mets by a 5-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Pittsburgh had won eleven straight games before losing their previous two contests before last night. The Pirates have won 10 of their last 11 games after a win — and they have also won 9 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also won 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. They send out Williams who is 8-7 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to 4.06 and 1.20 marks in eleven starts. The Pirates have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Williams facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Mets team that has lost 11 of their last 16 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 25 of their last 35 games after allowing at least 5 runs. The Mets have also lost a decisive 41 of their last 56 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with DeGrom who is 5-5 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in twenty starts. The sabermetrics indicate he should be surrendering about a run more per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.97 and 2.79 moving forward. And while the right-hander has been absolutely nasty at home where he has a 1.66 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and .188 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts, those numbers do climb to a 1.79 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and a more manageable .216 opponent’s batting average when on the road. New York has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with DeGrom on the hill. DeGrom does come off a strong outing where he allowed only three runs (two earned) in 8 innings of work at home versus the Padres — but the Mets have lost 9 of their last 12 games with DeGrom looking to follow up a Quality Start. New York has also lost 4 of their last 5 games with DeGrom facing the Pirates. That is not a good sign when facing this hot Pirates team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .298 batting average along with a .348 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .873. Pittsburgh has also won 8 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Mets have a bullpen ERA of 4.73 this season, they fall into a historical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 76% effective since 1997. New York has a team On-Base Percentage of .305 this season — and National League road favorites with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher along with an On-Base Percentage no higher than .310 have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 55 of the last 72 situations (when priced in the +160 to +115 price range) when these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is a solid play as a money-line underdog in this game at home against a tanking Mets team — even with DeGrom on the hill. But with the Run-Line price below my -150 threshold, my preferred investment is to buy the valuable +1.5 Run-Line to offer some “DeGrom Insurance” in case he pitches a gem. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jacob DeGrom. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-18 |
Cubs +104 v. Cardinals |
Top |
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (901) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (902) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Miles Mikolas. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (51-51) won the opening game of this series last night with their 5-2 win over Chicago (60-43).
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has bounced-back to win a decisive 60 of their last 88 games after a loss. Additionally, the Cubs have won 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Quintana who is 9-6 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander faced this Cardinals team last Sunday and allowed only two earned runs in 7 innings of work to earn the victory. Quintana had been dealing with a sore shoulder but the All-Star Break may have been just what the doctor ordered as he got eleven days off before that start — and the five days of rest should serve him here. Quintana has been more effective away from Wrigley Field where he has a 3.06 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in eleven starts on the road as compared to his 5.02 ERA along with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 when pitching at home. The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 road games with Quintana facing a team with a winning record. St. Louis (52-51) has lost 7 straight games after a loss — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, St. Louis has lost 6 of their last 8 games at home. They counter with Mikolas who is 10-3 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in twenty starts. But the sabermetrics are calling for significant regression as both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.99 and 3.73 moving forward. Those analytics are eerily similar to his recent results. Over his last eight starts, Mikolas has an ERA of 3.80 along with a WHIP of 1.27. The book on the right-hander may explain why he has been losing some of his effectiveness after a strong opening to the season after he spent the last few seasons pitching in Japan. Mikolas also sees his ERA rise to a 3.23 mark in his nine starts during the day. His teams have also lost 4 straight games when he is pitching at home with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: These two starting pitchers seem to be moving in opposite directions as this season moves forward. That only fuels the advantage the Cubs already have in this game being the better overall team. 25* MLB FS1-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (901) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (902) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Miles Mikolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-27-18 |
Cubs +106 v. Cardinals |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (959) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (960) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Luke Weaver. THE SITUATION: Chicago (60-42) has won their last two games after their 7-6 win over Arizona yesterday. St. Louis (51-51) has lost four of their last six games with their 7-3 loss in Cincinnati on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 11 of their last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also won 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Cubs have also won 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They give the ball to Montgomery who is 3-3 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in ten starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 2.68 mark with a 0.94 WHIP in five starts. Chicago has also won 6 of their last opening games to a new series with Montgomery on the mound. He should fare well against this Cardinals team that has lost 11 of their last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis has lost 37 of their last 57 games after an off-day. The Cardinals have also lost 6 of their last 7 games at home. They counter with Weaver who is 5-9 with a 4.79 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has struggled at home where he owns a 5.32 ERA with a .265 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 4.43 ERA with a .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. St. Louis has lost 5 straight home games with Weaver pitching at night. He will likely struggle against this Cubs team that has won 11 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 20 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs are the small money-line underdog in this game — but they have the relative advantage with the starting pitchers while being the superior team. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (959) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (960) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Luke Weaver. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-27-18 |
Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (58-44) won the opening game of this series last night over Cincinnati (45-58) by a 9-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have won three straight games as well as five of their last seven contests — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win. Philadelphia has also played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Phillies have played 4 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Pivetta who is 6-8 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in twenty starts (21 games). The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.36 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP in nine starts. Pivetta has also taken a nose dive since his ERA peaked at a 3.23 mark back on May 21st. In his 48 2/3 innings since, Pivetta has 6.29 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP. And in his last four starts, Pivetta has been even worse with an 8.82 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Phillies’ last 4 games with Pivetta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Reds team that has seen the Over go 16-4-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-2-1 in Cincinnati’s last 11 games after a loss — and the Over is also 18-6-3 in the Reds’ last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 14-3-2 in Cincinnati’s last 19 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in nine starts. He has surrendered 14 home runs this season after giving up two bombs in his last start against the Pirates. The right-hander has been worse at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.57 mark along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in six starts. The Reds have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with DeSclafani on the hill. He faces a Phillies team that has scored 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .812. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Pivetta has been a disaster for the last two months while struggling on the road even during his encouraging start to the season.— and the Reds have been an Over machine as of late. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-18 |
Brewers v. Giants -105 |
|
7-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (911) listing both starting pitchers Dereck Rodriguez and Wade Miley. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (52-51) has lost three of their last four games with their 3-2 loss in Seattle yesterday. Milwaukee (58-46) enters this series coming off a 7-3 loss to Washington yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Brewers have lost 6 of their last 8 games after a loss. Milwaukee has also lost 6 straight games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 games played in San Francisco. They give the ball to Miley who is 1-1 with a 1.56 ERA along with a 1.33 WHIP in four starts. The lefty has only 11 strikeouts in his 17 1/3 innings this season while walking eleven batters. Those poor numbers provide some of the reasons why his sabermetrics call for significant regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.55 and 5.01 respectively moving forward. Miley has yet to allow an earned run in his two starts at home this year — but this is a starting pitcher with a 6.05 ERA along with a 1.77 WHIP when pitching on the road last year for the Orioles. San Francisco has bounced-back to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring two runs or less. They counter with Rodriguez who is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.28 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in four starts. The Giants have won 4 straight home games with Rodriguez on the hill. Rodriguez has also registered four straight Quality Starts — and that is good news when facing this Brewers team that has lost 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played their last five games on the road — so returning home where they are 31-19 this season. Miley’s 1.56 ERA looks nice — but that number is likely to explode sooner rather than later for the journeyman. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (911) listing both starting pitchers Dereck Rodriguez and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-18 |
Mets v. Pirates -146 |
Top |
12-6 |
Loss |
-146 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Nick Kingham and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (53-50) saw their eleven-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 4-0 loss in Cleveland. New York (42-57) has won two straight games after they defeated San Diego by a 6-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh has still won thirteen of their last sixteen games — and they have won 4 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Pirates return home where they have won 6 straight games — and they have won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, Pittsburgh has not allowed more than four runs in six straight games — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least six games. They give the ball to Kingham who is 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in ten starts. The rookie right-hander has been tough at home where he enjoys a 2.90 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 as compared to his 5.54 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 when on the road. Kingham has produced three straight Quality Starts that have resulted in Pirates’ victories. He has a sparkling 2.89 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP in the 18 2/3 innings over that span. He should thrive against this Mets’ team that has lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. New York has also lost 10 of their last 14 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have lost 23 of their last 31 games after a victory. And while they have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then lost 11 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Overs. Furthermore, New York has lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have also lost a decisive 40 of their last 54 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Matz who is 4-8 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in nineteen starts. The lefty has been less effective on the road where he owns a 1.40 WHIP with a .251 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as opposed to his 1.20 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Matz starting against a team with a winning record. New York has also lost 17 of their last 21 games with Matz pitching in the second-half of the season. Matz has lost three straight starts while being saddled with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over that span. That likely spells trouble when facing this hot Pirates’ lineup that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .315 batting average along with a .348 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .902 over that span. Pittsburgh has won 4 of their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates were overnight favorites in the -175 price range — but, as of 9 AM ET this morning, they are priced at or below -150 in about half the books I survey. Perhaps it is the hand injury to Sterling Marte combined with the Mets winning their last two games that has enticed some bettors into taking the underdog? With this situation dropping to my -150 money-line threshold guideline, let’s attack. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Nick Kingham and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-18 |
A's v. Rangers OVER 11.5 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Oakland A’s (969) and the Texas Rangers (970) listing both starting pitchers Edwin Jackson and Martin Perez. THE SITUATION: Oakland (59-43) has won six of their last seven games with their 13-10 win over the Rangers in Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 6-1-1 in the A’s last 8 games after a win — and the Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Oakland cranked four home runs last night — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where they nailed at least four homers. Additionally, the Over is 6-0-1 in the A’s last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Jackson who is 1-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in five starts. He does have a 1.24 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in his three road starts as compared to his 0.54 WHIP and .133 opponent’s batting average at home this year. The sabermetrics also indicate that Jackson has been pretty fortunate with his frontline numbers as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.48 and 4.46 moving forward. He faces a Rangers team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Texas (42-60) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss. The Rangers have dropped six of their last seven contests — and they have then played 16 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. Furthermore, Texas has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Perez who is 2-4 with an 8.05 ERA and a 2.08 WHIP in seven starts. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 10.05 ERA with a 2.30 WHIP and .400 opponent’s batting average in three starts. The Rangers have played 6 of their last 8 home games with Perez on the hill. He faces an A’s roster that has a cumulative .329 batting average against Perez in their respective careers. The Over is also 6-0-1 in Oakland’s last 7 road games against teams with a left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Global Life Park in Arlington has been the most hitter-friendly MLB stadium this season (even better than Coors Field). In the dog days of summer with the ball carrying and two suspect starting pitchers, expect another Over even with the number in the 11.5/12 range. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between Oakland A’s (969) and the Texas Rangers (970) listing both starting pitchers Edwin Jackson and Martin Perez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-18 |
Giants v. Mariners -139 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (976) versus the San Francisco Giants (975) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: Seattle (60-41) has lost two of their last three games with their 4-3 loss to the Giants in the opening game of this two-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco (52-50) has still lost four of their last six games — and they have lost 5 of the last 7 games after a win. The Giants have also lost 33 of their last 45 road games after a victory — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road overall. Holland gets the spot start for Jeff Samardzija who is still dealing with a sore shoulder. Holland has a 5-8 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP which includes 18 starts along with four bullpen appearances. The left-hander sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.13 and 1.47 marks when on the road this year. Furthermore, Holland’s teams have lost 22 of their last 33 road games with Holland pitching as an underdog. Seattle has won 21 of their last 31 games after a loss — and they have also lost 10 of their last 11 games after a loss by just one run. The Mariners have still won 24 of their last 33 games at home — and they have thirteen of their last seventeen home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Leake who is 8-6 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander does thrive during day games where he owns a 3.67 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in eight starts. He comes off a nice outing back on July 15th in Colorado where he allowed only two runs (one earned) in 6 innings of work. Seattle has won 6 of their last 8 games with Leake looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Giants team that is hitting only .237 batting average over their last seven games with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .659 over that span. San Francisco has lost 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: I considered the Mariners yesterday with the Run-Line before James Paxton was scratched from making the start with him not being ready to come off the disabled list. Then with the money-line price dropping to the -120 range with Roenis Elias making the spot start, I made the correct decision to pass on that side play. This afternoon’s play on the Mariners is much better — so let’s attack. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (976) versus the San Francisco Giants (975) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-23-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Cubs -104 |
|
7-1 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (960) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) listing both starting pitchers Luke Farrell and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Chicago (58-40) has won six of their last eight games after they closed out their five-game series with the Cardinals yesterday with a 7-2 victory. Arizona (54-46) snapped a three-game losing streak yesterday with a 6-1 win over Colorado.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 11 of their last 15 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Cubs have also won 16 of their last 21 games at home in Wrigley Field. They give Farrell a spot start tonight who is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP mostly pitching out of the bullpen. He does see his ERA and WHIP drop to a 2.25 and 1.25 mark when pitching at home. Manager Joe Maddon also has the benefit of a good bullpen that has a 3.34 ERA this season along with a sparkling 2.74 ERA in night games. Farrell should put the Cubs in a good position to win against this Diamondbacks team that has lost 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Diamondbacks have also lost 25 of their last 35 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Corbin who is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in twenty starts. Arizona has lost 10 of their last 14 road games with Corbin on the mound facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .314 batting average with a .401 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .851. Chicago has won 17 of their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Getting the opportunity to take the Cubs at home with a money-line price below -150 is enticing. While those conditions do not trigger an automatic play, there is enough evidence on the Arizona side of the equation to warrant an investment. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (960) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) listing both starting pitchers Luke Farrell and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-23-18 |
Braves v. Marlins +1.5 |
Top |
12-1 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Marlins (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (955) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urena and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (53-43) enters this series looking to rebound from a 6-2 loss in Washington yesterday. Miami (43-58) looks to bounce-back from a 6-4 loss in Tampa Bay yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Braves have lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta has also lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Newcomb who is 8-5 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.61 and 4.35 respectively. Newcomb has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.79 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in eleven starts. The Braves have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Newcomb pitching on the road. Miami has won 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Urena who is 2-9 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics for this right-hander indicate he is undervalued as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.93 and 3.86 moving forward. Urena has also been more effective at home where he has a 4.26 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .256 in twelve starts as compared to his 4.61 ERA and .263 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Marlins have won 4 straight games with Urena facing a team with a winning record. Lastly, because Urena is starting for the first time since July 15th, Miami is supported by an empirical angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 78% effective over the last five seasons. The Marlins are being outscored by -1.1 Runs-Per-Game this season — and home underdogs who are being outscored by at least -1.0 Runs-Per-Game using a starting pitcher who has played with at least seven days of rest have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 47 of the last 60 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: Miami is a fine play as a small money-line underdog. With the price of the Run-Line being less than my -150 threshold, my preferred play which will produce more long-term profits is to take the Marlins with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Miami Marlins (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (955) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urena and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-18 |
Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Chicago Cubs (910) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (50-48) won the second-game of their double-header with the Cubs yesterday with a 6-3 score that avenged a 7-2 loss to Chicago (57-40) in the afternoon. These NL Central rivals have split the first four games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have played 5 straight road games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record — and they have played 18 of their last 26 road games when a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.01 and 3.78 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.56 mark along with a 1.10 WHIP in ten starts. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total wit Mikolas facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .387 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817 over that span. Chicago has also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. Chicago has also played 6 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of the last 17 home games Over the Total as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They counter with Quintana who is 8-6 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression for Montgomery with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for an ERA of 4.63 and 4.38 moving forward. The left-hander has also not been as effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in seven starts. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Quintana on the mound facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals’ lineup that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .789 over that span. The Cardinals have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINA TAKE: Both these teams are swinging hot bats. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with overrated starting pitchers relative to their sabermetrics. 25* MLB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Chicago Cubs (910) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-18 |
Giants v. A's -132 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (982) versus the San Francisco Giants (981) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (51-48) won the opening game of this series last night over Oakland (55-43) by a 5-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has been on fire as they have won 21 of their last 28 games. They should rebound as they have won 7 straight games after a loss — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The A’s have also won 13 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Cahill who is 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in nine starts this season. Cahill is generating swinging strikes in 13.1% of his pitches which is a career high for the right-hander. Cahill has also been more effective at home where he sports a 0.64 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .175 in four starts. Cahill’s teams have won 8 of their last 10 games with home pitching at home. He faces a cold Giants lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .233 batting average along with a .299 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .629 over that span. San Francisco has lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Giants have also lost a decisive 32 of their last 44 road games after a victory. They counter with Bumgarner who is 3-3 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eight starts. The left-hander has seen his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.67 and 1.56 marks in his three starts on the road. His SIERA and xFIP also project an ERA of 4.43 and 4.30 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers so far this season. San Francisco has lost 10 of their last 12 road games with Bumgarner on the hill. The A’s have won 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s are playing great baseball over the last four or so weeks — and Cahill has been dominant when pitching at home. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (982) versus the San Francisco Giants (981) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-18 |
Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Chicago Cubs (962) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Mike Montgomery. THE SITUATION: Chicago (57-39) won the opening game of their double-header with St. Louis (49-48) by a 7-2 score this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: St. Louis has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have also played 8 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games when a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. St. Louis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gant who is 3-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The sabermetrics are calling for regression as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.48 and 4.51 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.69 mark along with a 1.30 WHIP. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .275 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .776 over that span. Chicago has also played 6 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total at home. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Montgomery who is 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP this season. The left-hander has struggled since entering the Cubs’ rotation as he has failed to register a Quality Start in four straight starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression for Montgomery with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for an Era of 4.55 and 4.52 moving forward. He has also not been as effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP along with a .308 opponent’s batting average. Chicago has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Montgomery on the mound. He faces a Cardinals’ lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .291 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817 over that span. The Cardinals have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINA TAKE: Both these teams are swinging hot bats. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with overrated starting pitchers. 25* MLB Saturday Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Chicago Cubs (962) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Mike Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-18 |
Twins -120 v. Royals |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (919) versus the Kansas City Royals (920) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (44-50) closed out the first-half of the regular season winning nine of their last eleven games with an 11-7 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. Kansas City (27-68) comes off a 10-1 loss in Chicago against the White Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 6 of their last 8 games after a win — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Twins have won 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Gibson who is 4-6 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in nineteen starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.84 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in nine starts. Minnesota has won 20 of their last 26 road games with Gibson facing a team with a winning record. Kansas City has lost a decisive 44 of their last 62 games after a loss — and they have also lost 11 of their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, the Royals have lost 22 of their last 27 home games as a money-line underdog of at least +100 — and they have lost 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Duffy who is 5-8 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in twenty starts. Duffy has pitched quite well on the road as of late where he has a sparkling 1.21 ERA since May 24th. But it is a different story when he is at home where he owns an ERA of 6.75 with a 1.63 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .291 in seven starts. Kansas City has lost 7 of their last 8 home games with Duffy on the hill. The sabermetrics are not encouraging either with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.76 and 4.96 moving forward. Lastly, Duffy faces a Twins team that has scored 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .316 batting average along with a .396 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .874 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota remains a bit undervalued with their overall Won/Loss record obscuring their recent improved play. Gibson has been quite good this year — especially on the road — while Duffy has struggled in Kauffman Stadium. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (919) versus the Kansas City Royals (920) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-18 |
Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 |
|
7-8 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Bundy and Sam Gaviglio. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (28-69) closed out the first-half of the regular season with a 6-5 win over Texas on Sunday. Toronto (43-52) has lost four of their last five games with their 5-2 loss in Boston.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles’ offense took a big hit during the break when they traded Manny Machado to the Dodgers. As it is, Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an off-day — and the Under is 17-6-3 in the Orioles’ last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Orioles have also played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bundy who is 6-9 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander does see his ERA drop to a 3.97 mark along with a 1.24 WHIP in eight starts on the road. The sabermetrics also predict better results with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.81 and 4.12 mark moving forward. Additionally, Baltimore has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Bundy pitching as a money-line underdog. Toronto (43-52) has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an off day — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after they allowed at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 18-7-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They counter with Gaviglio who is 2-3 with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.97 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in five starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Toronto’s last 5 home games with Gaviglio on the hill. His SIERA and xFIP also call for improved numbers with their baseline projection of his ERA dropping to 4.01 and 4.14 marks. Lastly, the Under is 2-0-2 in the Orioles’ last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: With Machado removed from the meager Orioles’ lineup, the days of them seeing Totals in the 8.5 to 9 range may be gone — even with their suspect pitching. Bundy remains solid — and Gaviglio has been outstanding when pitching at home. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Bundy and Sam Gaviglio. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-18 |
Cardinals v. Cubs -145 |
Top |
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (952) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Carlos Martinez. THE SITUATION: Chicago (53-38) closed out the first-half of the regular season winning their last three games after their 7-4 win in San Diego on Sunday. St. Louis (48-46) begins the second-half of the regular season coming off a 6-4 victory over the Reds in the first game under interim manager Mike Schildt after the organization fired Mike Matheny on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 8 of their last 11 games after a victory — and they have also won 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Cubs return home to Wrigley Field for the first time since July 8th — and they have won 36 of their last 52 home games after being on the rod for at least seven days. Chicago has also won a decisive 47 of their last 70 games at home — and this includes them winning four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 6-8 with a 3.92 ERA in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports an ERA of 3.18 along with a 0.97 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 4.70 ERA along with a 1.43 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cubs have won 11 of their last 13 home games as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range with Hendricks on the mound. Chicago has also won 7 of their last 10 opening games to a new season with Hendricks on the hill. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a win — and they have also lost 14 of their last 20 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And while the Cardinals have played their last three games Over the Total, they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight Overs. They counter with Martinez who is 6-5 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in sixteen starts this season. The right-hander had velocity issues that were negatively impacting him for much of the year but that seemed to be getting better in his last few starts. But Martinez the sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.57 and 4.60 moving forward. Martinez has consistently been not as effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.57 along with a 1.39 WHIP in seven starts as compared to his 2.68 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 8 road games with Martinez pitching as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: I am not surprised that the Cardinals won their first game after Matheny was sacked last Saturday — but his firing does not improve the quality of the roster at his disposal. While St. Louis is looking for their identity, the Cubs are looking to continue their improved play as they have a deeper playoff run on their minds. With the Cubbies possessing a significant edge in the starting pitching battle, let’s attack. 25* MLB ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (952) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Carlos Martinez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-18 |
National League v. American League -126 |
|
6-8 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the American League (946) versus the National League (945) in the MLB All-Star Game. THE SITUATION: The 89th MLB All-Star Game will be hosted this season in Nationals Park in Washington DC. The American League is the home team this year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AMERICAN LEAGUE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The American League can make a strong claim to being the superior league right now. They have won three of the last five World Series after the Astros defeated the Dodgers last year. The AL has also won five straight All-Star Games after their 2-1 victory in 10 innings last year in Miami. In fact, the AL is a dominant 23-6-1 in their last thirty Midseason Classics which makes me need a compelling reason to go against those recent team trends. I handicap this game similarly as to how I handicap every other baseball game — by paying most of my attentions on pitching. The American League has a big edge this year in my mind. The AL lost Corey Kluber with his right knee issues but he is replaced by Blake Snell who is enjoying a breakout season. The AL has eight starting pitchers on their roster capable of pitching one inning or more in this game, which I rank in terms of quality: Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, Luis Severino, Snell, Trevor Bauer, Jose Berrios, Charlie Morton, J.A. Happ. The National League lost two of their starting pitchers with Jon Lester and Miles Mikolas pitching on Sunday which would leave them unavailable to pitch on Tuesday. The NL still has two bonafide aces in Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom followed by Aaron Nola but there is a dropoff when then going to Zack Greinke (notoriously not as effective away from home), Patrick Corbin, Russ Stripling and Mike Foltynewicz. Scherzer should be great as the likely starter pitching in his home park but I give the edge to AL with that remaining starting pitcher depth before it goes to the respective handful of closers at both manager’s disposal.
FINAL TAKE: With the dominant recent results of the American League along with a roster edge in pitching, the AL offers money-line value especially when considering they are the technical home team which gives the advantage of the last at-bat. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with money-line on the American League (946) versus the National League (945) in the MLB All-Star Game. Best of luck for us — Frank.
HOME RUN DERBY BETTING REPORT: My Best Bet is on Byrce Harper who is the Bovada favorite with odds currently at +225. The value on Harper is not great — but they are not bad considering that I consider him the overwhelming favorite. Home field advantage is huge for Harper in this event. Not only is he extremely familiar and comfortable with Nationals Park in Washington but he will have the home fans rooting him on. He will be very motivated to put on a show tonight. And, he is the only competitor in the field who experience in previous Home Run Derbies. Frankly, he is not facing overwhelming competition in this event either. My Long Shot on a competitor in the bottom half of the Bovada betting favorites is Freddie Freeman at +750 odds. He faces Harper in the opening round — if he can get past him, his odds become pretty good. He is a veteran who has one of the purest hitting strokes in this event. He also is a left-handed batter — and the right-center field is 370 yards away which is seven feet closer than left-center. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-18 |
Cubs v. Padres OVER 8 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Eric Lauer. THE SITUATION: Chicago (54-38) has won five of their last seven games with their 11-6 victory over the Padres.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lester who is 11-2 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eighteen starts. The left-hander has an outstanding 1.98 ERA in nine starts at home — but he sees that mark rise by nearly a run to a 2.96 mark on the road. The sabermetrics are screaming out for regression with the veteran with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.67 and 4.68 marks moving forward. Lester’s velocity has dropped below 91 MPH which is his lowest mark in over ten years. His Hard-Hit Rate is 33.1% which is not only a career high but also higher than the MLB average which is in the 31% range. The Cubs have played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with Lester pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a Padres team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (40-58) has also lost five of their last six games — and they have then played 40 of their last 59 home games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Padres have also played 28 of their last 46 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Lauer who is 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in fifteen starts. The sabermetrics are also calling for regression for the rookie with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.71 and 4.53 respectively. San Diego has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Lauer on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and the Over is also 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games with Lauer facing a team from the NL Central. He faces a Cubs team that has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Lester is simply very overvalued right now. We want to try to take advantage of that when he is pitching away from Wrigley Field. While we can’t be zombies to take the Over (or against the Cubs) whenever Lester is on the mound right now, there is enough complementary evidence on the Padres’ ledger to take make a strong investment in the Over. 25* MLB Pre-All-Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Eric Lauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-18 |
Yankees v. Indians OVER 9 |
Top |
5-4 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (973) and the Cleveland Indians (974) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (51-42) has won two of their last three games with their 6-5 victory over the Yankees on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory. Additionally, Cleveland has now played five straight Overs — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Overs. Furthermore, the Indians have played 11 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9-9.5 range — and the Over is 17-4-1 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for Clevinger with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.03 and 3.94 moving forward. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.08 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Indians’ last 4 home games with Clevinger on the hill. These are not good signs when faces the Bronx Bombers who are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .293 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .843 over that span. New York (61-32) has seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 4-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games on the road. They counter with Sabathia who is 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in seventeen starts. His sabermetrics are also calling for regression with both his SIERA and FIP projecting ERAs of 4.38 and 4.51 moving forward. The left-hander sees his ERA rise to a 4.42 mark along with a 1.40 WHIP in seven starts on the road. Additionally, the Over is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with Sabathia facing a team from the AL Central. He faces an Indians team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average along with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .766. Cleveland has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: In this game between two teams swinging hot bats, expect a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (973) and the Cleveland Indians (974) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-18 |
Rays v. Twins -136 |
Top |
19-6 |
Loss |
-136 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (966) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (965) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Chris Archer. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-49) has won three straight games — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 11-8 victory over the Rays last night. Tampa Bay (48-46) has lost their last contests in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 7 of their last 8 games after a win — and they have also won 7 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Twins have also won 10 of their last 11 games at home. They give the ball to Berrios who is 9-7 with a 3.41 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.49 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in eleven starts. Minnesota has won 18 of their last 21 home games with Berrios on the mound. He should enjoy another great performance against this Rays team that has lost 15 of their last 18 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay (48-46) has lost 6 of their last 8 games against opponents that scored at least five runs in their last game. The Rays have also lost 17 of their last 22 games on the road — and this includes them losing eleven of their last thirteen road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Archer who is 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander typically struggles when away from home. In eight road starts this season, Archer has a 1.46 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .271 as opposed to his 1.27 WIP and .262 opponent’s batting average at home. Tampa Bay has lost 9 of their last 11 road games with Archer facing a team with a winning record. Archer faces a red-hot Minnesota offense that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .826 over that span. The Twins have won 8 of their last 9 home games when facing right-handed starting pitchers — and they are won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is playing great baseball right now approaching the All-Star Break. They also have a big edge in starting pitchers with Berrios pitching at home battling Archer who just came off the disabled list and who does his best pitching historically at home in Tropicana Field. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (966) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (965) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Chris Archer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-18 |
Phillies v. Marlins +1.5 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Marlins (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (905) listing both starting pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Jake Arrieta. THE SITUATION: Washington (52-40) enters this series coming off a 5-4 win at Baltimore yesterday. Miami (39-56) had yesterday off after they won their third game in their last four contests with their 5-4 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Miami has won 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Marlins have also won 9 of their last 11 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Chen who is 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has struggled on the road — but he has been quite good at home where he owns a 1.89 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and .200 opponent’s batting average in six starts. Miami has won 12 of their last 16 home games with Chen on the hill — and they have also won 18 of their last 26 home games with Chen pitching as the underdog. He should fare well against this Phillies team that has lost 5 of their last 6 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia will be playing in their third city in three days after closing out their series with the Mets in NYC on Wednesday. The Phillies have lost 35 of their last 55 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Arrieta who is 6-6 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has seen his strikeout rate decline significantly this season. After striking out 163 batters in 168 1/3 innings last year, he has only struck out 69 batters in 96 innings. He is only coaxing batters into missed swings in just 14% of his pitches as compared to the 17% MLB average. And when he has two strikes on a batter, he is only generating third strikes in 34.8% of the time which is tenth worse in MLB. Additionally, Arrieta is struggling on the road where he has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in eight starts. The Phillies have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Arrieta on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Marlins team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .314 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .838 over that span. Miami has also won 6 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, because Miami is looking to avenge a 6-0 loss to the Phillies back on May 2nd, they are supported by an empirical angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 73% effective over the last five seasons. Teams with a winning percentage in the 38-46% range avenging a shutout loss to their opponent who has a winning record have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 52 of the last 71 situations (when priced in the -130 to +160 price range) where these conditions apply.
FINAL TAKE: Taking the Marlins as the money-line underdog is a solid play for this situation. For me and my philosophy, with the Run-Line option being priced below -150, I consider the value of getting +1.5 Runs in baseball to be more important — so I am taking Miami plus the +1.5 Run-Line while being very happy if they win this game outright. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami Marlins (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (905) listing both starting pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Jake Arrieta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-18 |
Nationals v. Mets UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Washington (47-46) won the opening game of this series with their 5-4 win over the Mets yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have seen the Under go a decisive 50-24-5 in their last 79 games after a victory. Additionally, Washington has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range — and they have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range. The Under is also 47-19-6 in Washington’s last 72 road games which includes them playing four of their last five road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Roark who is 3-11 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective away from home as he sees his ERA drop to a 3.63 mark with a 1.23 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average in nine road starts as compared to his ugly 5.98 ERA along with a 1.52 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average at home. The Nationals have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Roark on the hill. Roark also usually pitches well against New York given his 3.19 ERA in nineteen career games with thirteen starts. He should fare well against this Mets team that is scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .167 batting average along with a .232 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .534. New York (37-54) has played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They get Syndergaard back after he spent the last seven weeks on the disabled list after posting a 4-1 record with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The right-hander has been better at home in Citi Field throughout his career where he owns a 2.68 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP as opposed to his 3.22 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP on the road. The Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games with Thor on the hill facing a team with a winning record. He should thrive in his return against this Nationals team that has played 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Total opened at 7.5 for this game but has jumped a full run in most spots. What looked like a solid Under play before that movement now becomes an outstanding opportunity with combined scores of 8 now cashing tickets. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-12-18 |
Nationals v. Mets +1.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
125 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Mets (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (955) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Washington (46-46) limps into this series having lost three of their last four games with their 2-0 loss at Pittsburgh. New York (37-53) enters this series coming off a 3-0 win over Philadelphia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Nationals are a bit overvalued right now. They have lost 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and this includes them losing seven of their last eight road games against teams with a losing record. Washington has also lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They give the ball to Scherzer who is 11-5 with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been a bit less effective on the road where he has a 0.98 WHIP and .193 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 0.92 WHIP and microscopic .166 opponent’s batting average at home. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.62 and 2.99 which is a bit more manageable for opponents. New York has won 11 of their last 16 games after playing their last three games against fellow NL East opponents. The Mets have also won 5 of their last 8 games straight-up as a money-line underdog priced at least at +150. They counter with Matz who is 4-6 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in seventeen starts. The lefty has been better at home with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in nine starts as compared to his 1.33 WHIP and .232 opponent’s batting average on the road. Additionally, the Mets have won 7 of their last 11 games with Matzo pitching at night — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games with Matz facing a fellow NL East opponents. The Nationals are hitting only .244 this season — and the Mets have won 8 of their last 9 games with Matz facing a team with a batting average no better than .250. He should fare well against this Washington team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Matz has only surrendered one earned run over his last two starts — and New York has won 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two earned runs in his last start. Furthermore, because the Mets have a low batting average of .144 over their last five games, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective over the last five seasons. Home underdogs with a batting average no better than .225 over their last five games but using a starting pitcher who has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight games have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 48 of the last 74 situations (when priced in the +215 to -130 range at +1.5 Runs) where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: The Nationals are big favorites priced in the -200 range. With the Mets still offering a nice return as a small underdog even when getting the valuable +1.5 Run-Line, let’s attack. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the New York Mets (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (955) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-11-18 |
Dodgers -138 v. Padres |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) versus the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Joey Lucchesi. THE SITUATION: San Diego (40-54) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 win over the Dodgers last night. While LA opened as a money-line favorite in the -160 range, that has been down in most locations to under -150.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles did not meet my minimum expectations as a -1.5 Run-Line play — but with their price dropping to under my -150 maximum threshold, they become a great play with the money-line. The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have also won 7 of their last 10 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also won 15 of their last 21 games on the road. They give the ball to Maeda who is 5-5 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander returns from paternity leave as a proud poppy — and he has been more effective on the road where he has a 1.23 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 1.27 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average in nine home starts. The Dodgers have won 22 of their last 32 games with Maeda on the mound as a favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. He should fare well against this Padres team that has lost 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (40-54) is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .210 batting average along with a .274 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .619 over that span. The Padres have lost 7 straight games after a win. Furthermore, San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lucchesi who is 4-4 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirteen starts. The lefty has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP jump to 3.56 and 1.26 marks in nine starts. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 7 games with Lucchesi pitching against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These money-line propositions are risk-reward calculations. I determined many years ago to enforce a self-imposed ban on taking favorites priced higher than -150 — and, in baseball, consider Run-Line plays in those instances. That requires diligence to continue to monitor line-movement — but that is a good thing since there are a host of good betting opportunities that illuminate themselves by observing a reacting to the betting public (often betting against their activity). With the Dodgers’ price dropping below my -150 threshold, let’s attack with a strong play given the value and strength of this play. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) versus the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Joey Lucchesi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-11-18 |
Reds v. Indians OVER 9 |
Top |
4-19 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (925) and the Cleveland Indians (926) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Carlos Carrasco. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (41-51) has won the opening two games of this series with their 7-4 victory over the Indians.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 9-2-1 in the Reds’ last 12 games after a win — and the Over is also 11-2-1 in their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 16-4-3 in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Mahle who is 7-6 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.53 WHIP and .273 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 1.24 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average in eight home starts. That is not a good sign when facing this Indians team that scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home while posting a .277 batting average with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 in those games. Cleveland (49-41) has seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Indians have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The first two games of this series have gone Over the Total — and Cleveland has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total after playing their last two games Over the Total. Additionally, the Over is 26-7-2 in the Indians’ last 35 games at home which includes the Over going 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Cleveland has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9 to 9.5 range. They counter with Carrasco who is 9-5 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.48 mark along with a 1.38 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Indians’ last 8 home games with Carrasco facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Reds team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .263 batting average along with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .742 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Carrasco has consistently seen his home/road splits favor his starts away from home. With Cincinnati hitting the ball well and the Indians a strong offensive club at home, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Interleague Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (925) and the Cleveland Indians (926) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Carlos Carrasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-18 |
Dodgers -149 v. Padres |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-149 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (959) versus the San Diego Padres (960) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Eric Lauer. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-41) has won six of their last eight games with their 8-2 win over the Padres in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has not allowed more than four runs in ten straight games — and they have then won 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least five straight games. The Dodgers have also won 15 of their last 20 games on the road — and this includes them winning 9 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Hill who is 2-3 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in ten starts. The left-hander was off his game to begin the season — but in his four starts since returning from the disabled list, Hill has found his form again with a 2.78 ERA along with an 0.97 WHIP. LA has won 5 of their last 6 road games with Hill facing a team with a losing record. He should pitch well against this Padres team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have lost 18 of their last 23 games against left-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (39-54) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Padres have also lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, San Diego has lost 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have lost 19 of their last 24 home games as an underdog. They counter with Lauer who is 4-5 with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA to a 5.06 mark along with an opponent’s batting average of .333 in six starts as compared to his 4.69 ERA with a .315 opponent’s batting average in eight road starts. The Padres have lost 4 of their last 5 home games with Lauer on the hill. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 16 of their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers opened as money-line favorites in the -160 range but that number has been bet down to the -150 range in enough locations so that I can endorse the favorite play without violating my -150 money-line threshold guideline. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (959) versus the San Diego Padres (960) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Eric Lauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-10-18 |
Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
3-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Garrett Richards. THE SITUATION: Seattle (57-34) enters this series coming off a 6-4 win over Colorado on Sunday. Los Angeles (46-45) enters this series after they defeated the Dodgers by a 4-3 score for ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 8 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an off day. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Leake who is 8-5 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.71 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in eight starts. Leake’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. He should fare well against this Angels team that has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .251 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .574 OPS over that span. The Angels have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after an off day — and the Under is 15-4-3 in their last 22 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Angels have not allowed more than four runs in each of their last six games — and they have then played 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least six straight contests. Additionally, not only has LA played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total but they have also played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Richards who is 5-4 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.31 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Angels have seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games with Richards on the hill facing a team with a winning record. He should also pitch well against this Mariners team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .240 batting average along with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .689 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: In this game between two slumping offenses, expect a low-scoring game with these two underrated starting pitchers on the hill. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Garrett Richards. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-18 |
Nationals v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Jefry Rodriguez and Ivan Nova. THE SITUATION: Washington (45-44) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 10-2 loss to Miami. Pittsburgh (41-48) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 4-1 win over the Phillies yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total in the month of July. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 23 of their last 32 home games Under the Total with the number posted in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Nova who is 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 2.77 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in six starts. The Pirates have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with Nova on the hill — and they have also seen the Under go 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games with Nova facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Nationals team that has played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington (45-44) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on the road after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Nationals have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Washington has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They counter with Rodriguez who is 0-0 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings of work this season after being called up from Triple-A. Manager Davey Martinez has described Rodriguez as having “electric stuff.” He benefits from facing a slumping Pirates lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .688 during that span. Martinez will also be able to call on his strong bullpen that has a 3.75 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP when pitching on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is listed in the 9/9.5 range mostly because of the uncertainty of Rodriguez — but I expect him to pitch pretty well before the Nationals turn to their bullpen. Nova should pitch well on national television as well. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Jefry Rodriguez and Ivan Nova. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-08-18 |
Dodgers -109 v. Angels |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (980) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (979) listing both starting pitchers Alex and Andrew Heaney. THE SITUATION: The Dodgers (48-40) have won five of their last six games with their 3-1 win over the Angels yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Dodgers had a huge month of the dog days of summer last year as well — they have now won 25 of their last 29 games in the month of July. The Dodgers have also won 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Dodgers have also won 20 of their last 27 games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Wood who is 5-5 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. After a slow start, the left-hander has been outstanding as of late — he owns a 2.19 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP over his last four starts. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Wood on the hill. He should fare well against this Angels team that is scoring 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .566 over that span. The Angels have a low batting average of just .158 over their last three games — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 home games after not posting a batting average better than .200 over their last three games. Furthermore, the Angels have lost 11 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they scored only one run. Additionally, the Angels have lost 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record overall. And this Angels team has lost 10 of their last 12 games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Heaney who is 4-6 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in fifteen starts. But the left-hander has not been reliable when his team has been off a loss as the Angels have lost their last 8 games when Heaney is starting after a team defeat. Additionally, the Angels have lost 5 of their last 6 home games with Heaney facing a team with a winning record. That is not a good sign when now facing this Dodgers team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .270 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .835 in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are much better team than the Angels — especially since May 16th when they began their current 32-14 hot streak. Wood was outstanding on the road last season where he had a 2.24 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in thirteen starts. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (980) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (979) listing both starting pitchers Alex and Andrew Heaney. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-08-18 |
Reds v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (957) and the Chicago Cubs (958) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Chicago (50-36) has won seven of their last eight games with their 8-7 win over the Reds yesterday where they rallied from a 7-4 deficit in the bottom of the 8th inning to score four runs and pull out that comeback victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. And the Cubs have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lester who is 11-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in seventeen starts. The sabermetrics for the left-hander are screaming “Regression” as both his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA to more than double to a 4.57 and 4.53 marks. Additionally, Chicago has played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with Lester — and they have also seen the Over go 8-1-2 in the last 11 games with Lester facing the Reds. He faces a red-hot Cincinnati lineup that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .283 batting average along with a .368 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .781. The Over is also 12-3-2 in the Reds’ last 17 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati (39-50) has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. The Over is also 8-2-1 in the Reds’ last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a blown save. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 5-1-1. They counter with Castillo who is 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 6.70 ERA along with a 1.53 WHIP in his ten starts on the road. The Reds have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Castillo. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .350 batting average along with a .432 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .983 over that span. Additionally, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Lester is extremely overvalued right now — and Castillo has been a nightmare when pitching away from the Great American Ballpark. Both these pitchers are facing lineups that are in the zone right now. Lastly, in the last 13 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 10 times. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Central Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (957) and the Chicago Cubs (958) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-18 |
Braves v. Brewers -120 |
|
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (956) versus the Atlanta Braves (955) listing both starting pitchers Junior Guerra and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (49-38) snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with their 5-1 victory over the Brewers.
REASONS TO TAKE MILWAUKEE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Braves have still lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Newcomb who is 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in seventeen starts. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 3.21 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.38 and 4.12 moving forward. Atlanta has lost 11 of their last 15 games with Newcomb facing a team with a winning record. Milwaukee (53-36) saw their five-game winning streak with their loss yesterday. The Brewers have bounced-back to win 16 of their last 23 games after a loss — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least four runs. Additionally, Milwaukee has won 16 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 37 of their last 52 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers have still won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Junior Guerra who is 5-5 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been even better at home where he owns a 2.67 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in ten starts. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 5 games with Guerra pitching with four days of rest. He should fare well against this Braves lineup that is hitting just .227 over their last seven games with a .292 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .672 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is the better team — and they have the edge in the starting pitcher battle with Guerra pitching at home. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (956) versus the Atlanta Braves (955) listing both starting pitchers Junior Guerra and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-18 |
Red Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5 |
|
15-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (923) and the Kansas City Royals (924) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Brad Keller. THE SITUATION: Boston (60-29) has won four straight games with their 10-5 win over the Royals in the opening game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have seen the Under go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in Boston’s last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Price who is looking to redeem himself from getting clobbered in Yankee Stadium last Sunday night. The left-hander has a 9-6 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in seventeen starts. Price had enjoyed a 2.72 ERA in his previous nine starts so he should get back to business tonight. The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Price facing a team with a losing record. He should pitch well against this Royals team that has played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City (25-62) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Royals have also played 21 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the number posted in the 9 to 9.5 range. They counter with Keller who is 2-3 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in six starts this season. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Keller facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Price should be motivated to redeem himself from his bad outing in New York — and the rookie Keller has pitched well this season. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (923) and the Kansas City Royals (924) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Brad Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-18 |
Red Sox v. Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
10-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jason Hammel. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-29) has won eight of their last ten games with their 3-0 win in Washington on Wednesday. Kansas City (25-61) has lost six in a row with their 3-2 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after an off-day — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox have also played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% overall. They give the ball to Sale who is 8-4 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in eighteen starts. The left-hander has been more effect on the road where he owns a 2.32 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .163 in eleven starts. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Sale facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this slumping Royals team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .261 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .584 during that span. Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an off-day. Additionally, Kansas City has played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run — and the Under is 24-11-2 in their last 37 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. The Royals have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They give the ball to Hammel who is 2-10 with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in seven starts this season. The sabermetrics do indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 5.03 — and his ERA also drops a full run to a 4.53 mark in his seven starts at home. The Under is 6-0-1 in KC’s last 7 home games with Hammel on the hill. He faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: While Hammel does not appear very encouraging for the Under, the sabermetrics are encouraging. Sale should dominate the Royals (which is why the Red Sox are remarkable road favorites priced at almost -400). 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jason Hammel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-18 |
Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Toronto Blue Jays (964) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Sam Gaviglio. THE SITUATION: New York (56-28) has won their last two games with their 6-2 win over the Braves on Wednesday. Toronto (40-46) has lost three of their last four games with their 6-3 loss to the Mets on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an off-day. Additionally, New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. The Yankees have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Gray who is 5-6 with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been a disaster in Yankee Stadium — but he does see his ERA drop to a 3.28 mark with a 1.14 WHIP in eight starts on the road. New York has played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Gray on the hill. Toronto (40-46) has played 15 of their last 20 home games after losing two of their last three games. The Blue Jays have also seen the Under go 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Gaviglio who is 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been very good at home where he sees his ERA drop to a 1.95 mark along with a 1.12 WHIP in four starts. Toronto has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Gaviglio on the hill. He faces a Yankees team that has played 11 of their 12 road games Under the Total against teams using a right-handed starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is set at a high 9.5 but Gray is a much better pitcher at home while Gaviglio has been quite good when pitching at home. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Toronto Blue Jays (964) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Sam Gaviglio. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-18 |
Angels v. Mariners -127 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (916) versus the Los Angeles Angels (915) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Jaime Barria. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (44-43) won the second game of this series last night by a 7-4 score. This three-game series concludes tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE SEATTLE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mariners (55-32) have bounced-back to win 16 of their last 22 games after a loss. Seattle has also won 20 of their last 26 games at home — and this includes them winning nine of their last twelve home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gonzales who is 8-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in seventeen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA in eight starts. The Mariners have won 4 straight home games with Gonzales making the start. He should fare well against this Angels team that has lost 10 of their last 11 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has lost 12 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have lost eight of their last nine road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Angels have also lost 4 of their last 5 games in Seattle. They counter with Barria who is 5-4 with 3.40 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been quite as effective on the road where he has a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in five starts as compared to 1.20 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average at home. LA has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Barria facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Mariners team that has won 36 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: I considered Seattle closely yesterday but decided to pass given the starting pitcher matchup of Mike Leake versus Garrett Richards. I don’t think the Mariners are being given enough respect by the betting public which means we are getting value with the money-line. The Gonzales versus Barria battle is favorable to Seattle tonight. 20* MLB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (916) versus the Los Angeles Angels (915) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Jaime Barria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-18 |
White Sox v. Astros -1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-145 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (911) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Houston (57-31) has won two straight games with their 5-4 win over the Rangers yesterday. Chicago (30-56) has lost five of their last seven contests after they lost in Cincinnati yesterday by a 7-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston has won a decisive 46 of their last 63 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They also have won 21 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games on the road against a divisional rival. They return home for the first time since June 27th to begin an important eleven-game homestand to take them into the All-Star Break. Look for this reigning World Series Champions to make a big run right now. As it is, they have won 7 of their last 8 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. And while the Astros are hitting only .189 over their last five games, they have won 12 of their last 15 games after failing to hit better than .225 over their last five contests. They give the ball to Verlander who is 9-4 with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 0.77 WHIP and .167 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 0.95 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average on the road. Verlander’s teams have won 48 of their last 55 home games with the Total set at 7-7.5. Chicago has lost 9 of their last 23 games after a loss — and they have also lost 29 of their last 43 games on the road. The White Sox were swept in a three-game series they hosted in April where they scored only two runs in the entire series — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games when playing with at least double-revenge where they did not score more than two runs in either game. They counter with Rodon who is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in five starts. The left-hander sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 5.94 and 1.38 marks in his three starts on the road. Chicago has lost 14 of their last 17 road games with Rodon pitching as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has a heavy money-line price over -300 which is double the -150 maximum threshold I am willing to invest in money-line favorites. The Astros have won 32 of their last 46 home games when priced at least at -200. The White Sox have lost 26 of their last 35 games when an underdog priced at least at +150. The better investment is to cut the Houston price in half by taking them minus the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (911) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-18 |
Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -140 |
Top |
8-4 |
Loss |
-140 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Milos Mikolas. THE SITUATION: Arizona (48-38) snapped a four-game losing streak yesterday with their 4-2 victory over the Cardinals. St. Louis (43-41) has lost five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 5 of their last 7 games after a victory. The Diamondbacks conclude a ten-game homestand in this contest — and Arizona has won 10 of their last 15 games after playing at least their last five games at home. They give the ball to Corbin who is 6-3 with a 3.14 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in seventeen starts. The left-hander has allowed only one earned run in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. The sabermetrics indicate that Corbin should be seeing even better numbers with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.85 and 2.62 moving forward. The Diamondbacks have also won 4 of their last 6 games with Corbin pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He should fare well against this Cardinals team that has lost 8 of their last 10 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 38 of their last 53 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. The Cardinals have also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Mikolas who is 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.99 in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he sports a 1.65 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 — but he sees these numbers rise to a 3.70 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The sabermetrics also call for regression for Mikolas in his first year back in MLB after pitching in Japan for years. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.77 and 3.55 respectively moving forward. Mikolas also has a .243 opponent’s batting average in night games as opposed to his .209 opponent’s batting average in day games — and the Cardinals have lost 6 of their last 9 night games with Mikolas on the mound this year. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has won 7 of their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: While the frontline numbers for both these starting pitchers are similar, the sabermetrics suggest there will be a widening divide between these two pitchers moving forward with Corbin enjoying the edge. Arizona should close out their homestand with a win. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Milos Mikolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-18 |
Angels v. Mariners -109 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (912) versus the Los Angeles Angels (911) listing both starting pitchers Wade LeBlanc and Andrew Heaney. THE SITUATION: Seattle (54-31) has won seven straight games with their 1-0 win over the Royals on Sunday, Los Angeles (43-42) has lost seven of their last nine games after they lost in Baltimore on Sunday by an 8-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle has won 5 of their last 7 games after an off-day. Additionally, the Mariners have won 22 of their last 29 games after a victory — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, Seattle has won 20 of their last 26 games at home — and this includes them winning six of their last eight home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to LeBlanc who is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in eleven starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.68 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in six starts. The Mariners have won 6 straight home games with LeBlanc facing a team with a winning record. He should fare well against this Angels team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .215 batting average along with a .276 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .618 during that span. Los Angeles has lost 8 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Angels have last 16 of their last 22 games after an off-day. Additionally, the Angels have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. LA has also lost 11 of their last 14 games on the road which includes them losing seven straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Heaney who is 4-5 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been great at home where he has a 2.18 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .201 batting average in seven starts but he sees all these numbers skyrocket to a 6.14 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in seven starts on the road. The Angels have lost 13 of their last 16 road games with Heaney on the hill — and this includes them losing five straight road games with Heaney facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners are only small money-line favorites given the good reputation of Heaney and the general distrust of LeBlanc. But the sabermetrics suggest this is a close matchup with Heaney’s SIERA and xFIP of 4.00 and 4.02 being only a little bit better than LeBlanc’s 4.20 and 4.31 marks. Heaney on the road with LeBlanc pitching home evens up this duel even more — and the Seattle are a better home team than the Angels are on the road. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (912) versus the Los Angeles Angels (911) listing both starting pitchers Wade LeBlanc and Andrew Heaney. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-18 |
Orioles v. Phillies -146 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (920) versus the Baltimore Orioles (919) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Alex Cobb. THE SITUATION: This game was originally scheduled to start at 7:05 PM ET but has been moved back ninety minutes due to weather. Philadelphia (45-37) has won four of their last five games — as well as thirteen of their last twenty games — with their 4-3 win over Washington in 13 innings on Sunday. Baltimore (24-59) snapped a seven-game losing streak on Sunday with their 8-2 loss to the Angels.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won 18 of their last 26 games after winning three of their last four contests. The Phillies have also won 5 of their last 6 games after an off day. Philadelphia stays at home where they have won 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also won 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 40%. They give the ball to Eflin who is 6-2 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander enjoyed an outstanding month of June where he enjoyed a 5-0 record in five starts with a 1.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Eflin has been better at home where he sports a 2.59 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in four starts. Eflin comes off an outing against the Yankees where he did not allow an earned run in 7 innings — and Philly has won 4 straight games with Eflin looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces an Orioles team that has lost 37 of their last 53 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Baltimore has lost 9 straight games after an off-day — and they have also lost 24 of their last 32 games after a loss. Additionally, the Orioles have lost a decisive 43 of their last 57 games on the road — and this includes them losing seven of their last nine road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Cobb who is 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.90 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .337 opponent’s batting average in nine starts. Baltimore has lost 5 of their last 7 games with Cobb facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Phillies team that has won 12 of their last 17 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies are a much better team and are being backed by a promising starting pitcher in Eflin who is in a good groove. 20* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (920) versus the Baltimore Orioles (919) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Alex Cobb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-18 |
Red Sox +1.5 v. Nationals |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (961) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (962) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-29) has lost two of their last three games with their 11-1 loss in New York against the Yankees. Washington (42-40) has lost five of their last six games with their 4-3 loss in 13 innings in Philadelphia yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston should bounce-back from the Home Run Derby that David Price sponsored last night — they have won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. The Red Sox have also won 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, Boston has scored 23 of their last 31 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Red Sox have also won 20 of their last 25 games in Interleague play — and this includes them winning five straight road games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Porcello who is 9-3 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 3.42 ERA in nine starts. Boston has won 9 of their last 13 road games with Porcello on the hill. The Red Sox have also won 11 of their last 12 games in Interleague play with Porcello on the hill. He should pitch well against this Nationals team that has lost 5 straight games with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington (42-40) has lost 7 of their last 8 opening games to a new series. Their bullpen logged-in 7 1/3 innings of work yesterday — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 games when their bullpen pitched at least 7 innings in their previous game. The Nationals return home after playing their last six games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 20 games after playing their last five games away from home. Washington has also lost 7 of their last 9 games in Interleague play. They counter with Scherzer who is 10-4 with a 2.04 ERA and a WHIP of 0.85 in seventeen starts. The sabermetrics do call for significant regression from the ace with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.71 and 3.82 moving forward. The Nationals have also lost 19 of their last 14 home games when priced as a favorite in the -125 to -175 price range — and they have lost 6 of their last 10 home games priced at home -150 or higher with Scherzer making the start. He faces a hot-hitting Red Sox team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .286 batting average along with a .341 On-Base-Percentage and an OPS of .858 over that span. Lastly, because Scherzer has an ERA of 2.25 over his last three starts, Washington falls into an empirical “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 73% effective over the last five seasons. National League home favorites with a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or lower who enjoys an ERA of 2.50 or less over their last three starts have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 117 of the last 160 situations (when priced at +115 to +160) when these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: Washington is priced high in this game with Scherzer on the mound — but that dynamic may be overrated. The Red Sox plus the valuable +1.5 Run-Line is priced reasonably for this situation. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Boston Red Sox (961) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (962) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 |
|
1-11 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-28) won the second game of this series last night with an 11-0 victory over the Yankees.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a win — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Boston has also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to Price who is 9-5 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in sixteen starts. Price has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last nine starts going back to May 3rd. The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Price on the mound. He should pitch well against this cold Yankees lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .205 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .625. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 11 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York (53-27) has played 7 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 9-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 12 home games. They counter with Severino who is 12-2 with a 2.10 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.83 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in nine starts. The Under is 6-0-1 in New York’s last 7 home games with Severino on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitcher’s duel between Price and Severino. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-18 |
White Sox v. Rangers -118 |
Top |
4-13 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (976) versus the Chicago White Sox (975) listing both starting pitchers Bartolo Colon and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Texas (37-46) has won ten of their last twelve games with their wit their 11-3 victory over the White Sox in the opening game of this series last night where they clubbed five home runs. Chicago (28-53) has lost their last two games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas has won 7 of their last 9 games after a victory. The Rangers have also won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Texas has not allowed more than three runs in each of their last three games — and they have then won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing three runs or less in three straight games. They give the ball to Colon who is 4-5 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in fourteen starts this season. While getting on the Colon train did not initially tickle my fancy in what otherwise looks like a strong situation, the ole man’s presence on the mound is why the Rangers are not priced in the -150 range. Yet the wily veteran’s sabermetrics actually call for immediate improvement with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.38 and 4.21 moving forward. Colon has also been more effective at home where he owns a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in six starts as compared to his 1.20 WHIP and .273 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. Colon’s teams have won 19 of their last 27 games when he is starting and priced as a favorite at -110 or higher — and this includes Texas winning their last three games in that situation. He faces a White Sox team that scores only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .231 batting average along with a .286 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .653. Chicago has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a loss. They also have lost 25 of the last 37 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, one of the other reasons I am willing to bet against this White Sox team despite their facing old man Colon is that their mediocre bullpen has logged in 14 2/3 innings in their last three games — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 games after their bullpen has pitched at least 13 innings over their last three games. Chicago has also lost 5 straight games in expected high-scoring games with the Total listed at 10 or higher. They counter with Rodon who is 1-2 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four starts. The left-hander’s SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.66 and 5.38 respectively. Rodon also sees his ERA rise to a 4.76 mark with a 1.32 WHIP in his two road starts this season. Last year, Rodon had an ERA of 4.70 on the road which was almost a full run higher than his 3.72 ERA at home. The White Sox have lost 6 straight road games with Rodon on the hill — and they have also lost 13 of their last 16 road games with Rodon pitching as an underdog. He faces a hot-hitting Rangers team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .281 batting average along with a .333 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .809 over that span. Lastly, Texas has won 5 of their last 6 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: It is not very often where the opportunity exists to bet against the White Sox on the road where they favorite is not a money-line favorite priced higher than -150. From that perspective, it is Colon on the mound that is ensuring the small price on a great situation. Let’s attack while backing a red-hot team that should score plenty of runs tonight. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (976) versus the Chicago White Sox (975) listing both starting pitchers Bartolo Colon and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-18 |
Tigers v. Blue Jays -1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 1:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toronto Blue Jays (966) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (965) listing both starting pitchers Sam Gaviglio and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Toronto (38-43) has won four of their last six games with their 3-2 victory over the Tigers in the opening game of this series last night. Detroit (36-47) has lost ten games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Tigers have lost 10 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 straight games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Detroit has also lost 7 of their last 8 games played on turf — and they have lost 11 of their last 13 games in Toronto. They give the ball to Boyd who is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.71 mark along with a 1.46 WHIP in eight starts. The Tigers have lost 10 of their last 12 road games with Boyd on the hill. The sabermetrics are not encouraging either as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.71 and 4.96 moving forward. Toronto has won 6 straight games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. The Blue Jays have also won 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have won a decisive 38 of their last 55 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They counter with Gaviglio who is 2-2 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in seven starts. His SIERA and xFIP call for immediate improvement by projecting his ERA to be closer to a 3.66 or 3.73 mark. The left-hander has also been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.31 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in three starts. He should fare well against this slumping Tigers team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .204 batting average along with a .219 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .550 over that span. Lastly, because Detroit has a low .153 batting average over their last three games, they fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 64% effective over the last five seasons. The Tigers have a .301 On-Base Percentage for the season — and American League road underdogs with an On-Base Percentage of .310 or lower who are hitting below .175 in their last three games now facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 30 of the last 47 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers are in the middle of a horrible slump while the Blue Jays are on fire playing at home. With the money-line price being higher than my -150 threshold, let’s take advantage of the nice price when taking advantage of the Run-Line as this is a game that Toronto should win by more than the one run against a lefty in Boyd who struggles on the road. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the Toronto Blue Jays (966) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (965) listing both starting pitchers Sam Gaviglio and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 |
|
1-8 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (917) and the New York Yankees (918) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Boston (55-27) has won four straight games with their 4-2 win over the Angels last night. New York (52-26) enter this game coming off a 3-0 loss in Philadelphia on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 opening games to a new series. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Rodriguez who is 9-2 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander has been better on the road where he sports a 3.57 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 4.08 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .271 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Under 14-5-2 in Boston’s last 21 road games with Rodriguez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees team that has played 8 straight home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an off-day — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Under is 12-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 16 games at home. They counter with Sabathia who is 4-3 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fourteen starts. The lefty has been tough at home where he owns a 2.74 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in eight starts. The Under is 14-6-1 in the Yankees’ last 21 home games with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring contest in this battle of these two AL East behemoths. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (917) and the New York Yankees (918) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-18 |
Nationals v. Phillies -115 |
Top |
17-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (902) versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Erick Fedde. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (43-36) won the opening game of this series last night by a 4-3 score. Washington (41-38) is mired in a terrible slump having lost three straight games as well as five of their last six and ten of their last thirteen contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY: Philadelphia has won 5 of their last 7 games after a victory. And while the Phillies have not scored more than four runs in each of their last four games, they have then won 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score more than four runs in four straight contests. Furthermore, Philly has won 13 of the last 21 home games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Pivetta who is 4-6 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has allowed only four earned runs over his last 12 2/3 innings while striking out 20 batters over that span. Pivetta has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.04 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in nine starts. The Phillies have won 10 of their last 13 home games with Pivetta on the hill. He should fare well against this Nationals team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .230 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and .653 OPS over that span. Washington (41-38) has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Nationals have also lost 6 straight games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games in Philadelphia. They counter with Fedde who is 0-3 with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in four starts this year after posting a mediocre 4.35 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP in 41 1/3 innings in Triple-A this season. The right-hander enjoyed his best start of the season in his last outing at home against these Phillies where he allowed three runs in 6 innings of work — but this is a tough assignment for him to make just his second start away from home this season against a team that will have a recent memory of his pitches. Washington has lost 3 of their 4 games with Fedde on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Phillies team that has won 7 of their last 10 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Pivetta has been very tough when pitching at home this season — and he should be very focused in this game after being rocked by the Nationals in Washington back on May 4th. He gets payback against a slumping Washington team tonight. 25* MLB National League East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (902) versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Erick Fedde. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-18 |
Angels v. Red Sox -120 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (968) versus the Los Angeles Angels (967) listing both starting pitchers Brian Johnson and Jaime Barria. THE SITUATION: Boston (54-27) has won three straight games — as well as five of their last six contests — with their 9-6 victory over the Angels in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won a decisive 36 of their last 53 games after a win — and they have also won 17 of their last 24 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Red Sox have won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Johnson in this spot start with Steven Wright being placed on the disabled list. The left-hander has a 1-2 record with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP mostly pitching out of the bullpen. The sabermetrics call for immediate improvements in those numbers with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.72 and 3.95 moving forward. Johnson will not pitch deep into this game — and the Red Sox bullpen has been one of the best in baseball. Boston’s pen has a 3.06 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP while seeing both numbers drop to a 2.35 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over their last seven games. The Red Sox have won their last 6 games with Johnson making the start. He should find success against this Angels team is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .214 batting average along with a .270 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .603. LA has lost 13 of their last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (41-40) has lost five straight games as well as twelve of their last sixteen contests. The Angels have also lost 4 straight games after dropping the first two games in a series. Furthermore, LA has lost 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Barria who is 5-3 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in ten starts. The lefty has not been quite as effective on the road where he has a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in four stars as compared to his 1.20 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average at home. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .311 batting average, .375 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .914 over that span. Boston has won 42 of their last 59 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: While the money-line price on the Red Sox has dropped from the -145 range to the -125 to -135 range probably because of Johnson on the hill. But I think Johnson should pitch pretty well in this spot before handing things off to the outstanding Boston bullpen. Even if he struggles, the Red Sox should still out-slug this slumping Angels lineup. 25* MLB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (968) versus the Los Angeles Angels (967) listing both starting pitchers Brian Johnson and Jaime Barria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-18 |
Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (957) and the Philadelphia Phillies listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Washington (41-37) has lost their last two games after losing in Tampa Bay by a 1-0 score on Tuesday. Philadelphia (42-36) snapped their three-games losing streak with their 3-0 win over the Yankees yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have now played 4 straight home games Under the Total. Philadelphia has not scored more than three runs in each of their last three games — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. They give the ball to Nola who is 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander enjoys a 1.86 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP in seven home starts. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 8 home games with Nola on the hill. He should pitch well against this Nationals team that is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .222 batting average along with a .301 On-Base Percentage along with a .645 OPS over that span. Additionally, Washington (41-37) has played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Nationals have been shutout in their last two games — and they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to knock out a home run in at least two straight games. Washington has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 41-17-6 in the Nationals’ last 64 games on the road. The Nationals have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Roark who is 3-8 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.88 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in eight starts. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Roark on the hill. He faces a Phillies team that has played 4 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams that are both swinging cold bats. 10* MLB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (957) and the Philadelphia Phillies listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-18 |
Rockies v. Giants -144 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco (910) versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (41-39) has won three straight games — as well as six of their last seven contests — with their 3-2 win over the Rockies in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have allowed only two runs in two straight games — and they have then won 8 straight home games after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. Furthermore, the Giants have won 19 of their last 26 games at home — and this includes them winning six of their last seven home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who will be making his fifth start of the season after going 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.14 WHIP after beginning the season on the disabled list. The lefty has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.29 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP in two starts. San Francisco has won 7 of their last 10 home games with Bumgarner facing a team with a losing record. He should pitch well against this Rockies team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 WHIP or less. Colorado (38-41) has lost three straight games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. The Rockies have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Freeland who is 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he is saddled with a 3.95 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in nine starts as compared to his 2.95 ERA and .231 opponent’s batting average when at home. Colorado has lost 5 of their last 7 games with Freeland facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Bumgarner should out-duel Freeland while being supported by a better team playing at home. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco (910) versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-18 |
Cubs v. Dodgers -135 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the Chicago Cubs (907) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Kyle Hendricks. THE SITUATION: Chicago (43-34) snapped their five-game losing streak last night with their 9-4 victory over Los Angeles (42-36).
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles had won four straight games before that loss.
|
06-27-18 |
Padres v. Rangers -113 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the San Diego Padres (925) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Clayton Richard. THE SITUATION: Texas (35-46) has lost two of their last three games with their 3-2 loss to the Padres in the second game of this series with the Padres.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas has still won 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Rangers have also won 12 of their last 17 home games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Minor who is 5-4 with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander is enjoying a strong month of June where has registered three Quality Starts with a 2.84 ERA. He comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in Minnesota — and Minor’s teams have won 24 of their 33 games when he comes off a start where he allowed only one earned run. Minor has also been more effective at home where he sports a 3.94 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in eight starts as compared to his 6.82 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 when on the road. He should fare well against this Padres team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contest. San Diego (36-46) has also lost 6 straight games against teams using a left-handed starting pitcher — and they have also lost 22 of their last 26 road games in Interleague play against left-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. San Diego has also lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road. They counter with Richard who is 7-6 with a 4.23 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 4.66 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eight starts. The Padres have lost 8 of their last 11 road games with Richard facing a team with a losing record. He faces a hot-hitting Rangers team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .262 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .714 over that span. Texas has also won 4 of their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Richard has been pitching better over the last couple of months which is why the money-line has been bet down for this game. Minor has also pitched well as of late — and the original Rangers’ price in the -130 is the more accurate representation of their odds tonight. This is a nice value play. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the San Diego Padres (925) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Clayton Richard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-18 |
Angels v. Red Sox -144 |
|
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (916) versus the Los Angeles Angels (915) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Andrew Heaney. THE SITUATION: Boston (53-27) has won four of their last five games after their 9-1 win over the Angels in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 24 of their last 32 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Red Sox have also won 13 of their last 18 games at home — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Porcello who is 9-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.03 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to his 1.16 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average on the road. Boston has won 5 of their last 7 home games with Porcello on the hill. He should fare against this Angels team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .264 opponent’s batting average and an OPS of .589 over that span. Los Angeles (41-39) has lost 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Angels have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. Los Angeles has also lost 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record overall. They counter with Heaney who is 4-5 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in thirteen starts. The lefty has struggled on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.13 mark along with a 1.32 WHIP in six starts. The Angels have lost 5 straight road games with Heaney on the hill. He has a big challenge when facing this Red Sox team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .303 batting average along with a .359 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .853 over the span.
FINAL TAKE: The left-hander Heaney will likely struggle in Fenway Park and its Green Monster where he has never pitched before. 20* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (916) versus the Los Angeles Angels (915) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Andrew Heaney. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-18 |
Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
9-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Ross Stripling and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (42-35) has won four straight games after winning Game One of this series last night by a 2-1 score. Chicago (42-34) has lost five straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: We had the Dodgers -1.5 runs last night and were stung by a 9th inning run by the Cubs to cover the spread in defeat. The fundamentals remain strong to invest once again in LA with the Run-Line the preferred option given that they are money-line favorites priced higher than -150 in most locations at this point of the afternoon. The Dodgers have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game. LA has also won 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Stripling who is 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.82 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP in five starts. The Dodgers have won 4 straight home games with Stripling on the hill. He should fare well against this Cubs team that has lost 6 straight road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 4 straight games after a loss. Additionally, not only have the Cubs lost 6 straight games on the road but they have lost 6 straight games in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. They counter with Lester who is 9-2 with a 2.10 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in fifteen starts. The sabermetrics are screaming for immediate regression with the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.55 and 4.53 moving forward. Lester has also not been as effective on the road where he owns a 2.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in eight starts. The Cubs have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Lester making the start in LA. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 39 of their last 51 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Lastly, because the Dodgers score 4.7 Runs-Per-Game, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 54% effective since 1997. Stripling is averaging 6.8 strikeouts per game — National League favorites who score at least 4.7 Runs-Per-Game with a starting pitcher who strikes out at least 5.0 haters per game now facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or lower (Cubs: 3.09 bullpen ERA) have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 110 of these last 203 situations (when priced in the +110 to +160 price range).
FINAL TAKE: The value play is to face Lester and the slumping Cubs by taking the Dodgers with the Run-Line proposition which is a nice money-line underdog situation. 10* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Ross Stripling and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-18 |
Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (907) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Duane Underwood. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (41-35) has won three games in a row after their 8-7 win in New York against the Mets. Chicago (42-33) has lost four in a row after their 8-6 loss in Cincinnati. The Dodgers opened as money-line favorites in the -135 price range but has been bet up and stabilized in the -160 range. While that is above my -150 threshold regarding endorsing money-line favorites, this situation does meet my standards regarding laying the -1.5 Run-Line — and we are getting great value with Los Angeles as money-line underdog in the +130 range.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cubs are struggling right now — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. Chicago has also lost 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cubs have also lost 5 straight games on the road. They have decided to call up Underwood from Triple-A to make his major league debut. I usually stay away from investing for or against rookies who lack sufficient sample sizes — but after a deep dive into Underwood’s history, I am comfortable in betting against him. The 23-year-old had a 4.43 ER in 138 innings in Double-A ball last year while continuing his reputation of being wildly inconsistent. In Triple-A this season, Underwood has a 3-7 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP which is not encouraging for him making his debut on the road against the reigning NL champions. Furthermore, the Cubs surrendered four earned runs in their loss yesterday — and they have then lost 11 of their last 17 games after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four earned runs. Chicago has also lost their last 5 games in LA against the Dodgers. Los Angeles has won 9 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They return home for the first time since June 17th — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Additionally, the Dodgers have won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 16 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Maeda who is 4-4 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home as he sees his ERA drop to a 3.41 mark in seven starts. LA has won 8 of their last 11 home games with Maeda facing a team with a winning record. He should fare well against this Dodgers team that the lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Dodgers score 4.7 Runs-Per-Game, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 69% effective over the last five seasons. Maeda is averaging 5.75 strikeouts per game — and in the first-half of the regular season, National League favorites who score at least 4.7 Runs-Per-Game with a starting pitcher who strikes out at least 5.0 haters per game now facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or lower (Cubs: 3.11 bullpen ERA) have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 46 of these last 67 situations (when priced in the +110 to +160 price range).
FINAL TAKE: I think this is a very challenging situation for an MLB debut for a starting pitcher with the “inconsistent” label. With the Cubs bullpen struggling (and their closer Brandon Morrow on the disabled list) and this team slumping overall, they should lose to this Dodgers team that is playing much better baseball after a slow start to the season. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Run-Line of the Year on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (907) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Duane Underwood. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-18 |
Nationals v. Rays -113 |
|
0-11 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (918) versus the Washington Nationals (917) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Gio Gonzalez. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (37-40) has won three straight games with their 7-6 win over the Yankees yesterday. Washington (41-35) begins this series coming off an 8-6 win over Philadelphia yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE TAMPA BAY WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Rays have won 15 of their last 21 games after winning at least two straight games — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games after winning at least three straight contests. Additionally, Tampa Bay has won 6 straight home games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Snell who is 9-4 with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 0.96 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP in six starts. The Rays have won 10 of their last 12 home games with Snell facing a team with a winning record. He should pitch well against this Nationals team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Washington has lost 5 straight games after a victory — and they have lost 5 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Washington has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Gonzalez who is 6-4 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander has been less effective on the road where he owns a 3.14 ERA along with a .255 opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to his 3.02 ERA and .238 opponent’s batting average at home. The Nationals have lost 5 of their last 7 games with Gonzalez facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Rays team that has lost 4 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Snell is almost unhittable when he is pitching at home — and the Nats have been inconsistent this season. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (918) versus the Washington Nationals (917) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-18 |
Phillies +110 v. Nationals |
Top |
6-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (957) versus the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Jefry Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (41-33) has won three straight games — as well as six of their last seven — with their 5-3 victory over the Nationals in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have won 23 of their last 32 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Phillies have won 4 straight games on the road — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Pivetta who is 4-6 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at missing bats this season as he has struck out 94 batters in 79 1/3 innings of work. That is one of the reasons why the sabermetrics are bullish on Pivetta: his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.25 and 3.29 moving forward. Philadelphia has won 8 of their last 10 games with Pivetta facing a team with a winning record. He should fare well against this Nationals team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Washington (40-35) has lost seven of their last nine games — and they have lost 5 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have also lost 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Rodriguez who is 0-0 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in just 9 2/3 innings of work. The 24-year-old made the big jump from AA just two weeks ago where he had a solid but unspectacular 3.31 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in 68 innings of work. This is a big stage for his third career MLB start — and he is a facing a red-hot Phillies’ lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .287 batting average along with a .383 On-Base Percentage and a .885 OPS. Philly has won 9 of their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is still a bit undervalued right now — and they have a big edge in starter pitchers tonight with the surging Pivetta in a breakout season facing a starting pitcher making just his third start ever above Double-A ball. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (957) versus the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Jefry Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-18 |
Blue Jays v. Angels -131 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-131 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (928) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (927) listing both starting pitchers Jaime Barria and Marcus Stroman. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (41-35) has won three straight games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angles have won 7 of their last 9 games after a win — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games after a game where neither team scored more than three runs. Additionally, the Angels have won 9 of the last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 6 straight home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Barria who is 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.12 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 1.23 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Toronto (34-41) has lost 10 of their last 11 games on the road. The Blue Jays have also lost 16 of their last 20 games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. Furthermore, while Toronto has lost four games with the Angels, they have lost 5 of their last 7 games when playing with at least triple revenge. They counter with Stroman who is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in seven starts. The Blue Jays have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Stroman on the hill. He faces an Angels team that has won 8 of their last 9 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Stroman is struggling this season — he should be out-pitched by the rookie Barria who is enjoying a nice rookie season. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (928) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (927) listing both starting pitchers Jaime Barria and Marcus Stroman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-18 |
Royals v. Astros -1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (923) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Ian Kennedy. THE SITUATION: Houston (50-27) has lost two of their last three games with their 1-0 loss to the Royals last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston has still won thirteen of their last sixteen games. They managed only two hits last night against Danny Duffy — but they have then won 25 of their last 33 games after failing to generate more than four hits in their last game. The Astros have also won 6 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. They give the ball to McCullers who is 8-3 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.37 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in six starts. Houston has won 11 of their last 16 home games with McCullers facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Royals team that is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .203 with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .559 over that span. Kansas City (23-52) snapped a nine-game losing streak with their victory last night — but they have lost 23 of their last 32 games after a win. The Royals have also lost 6 of their last 7 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, Kansas City has lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road. They counter with Kennedy who is 1-7 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.16 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .311 in six starts. The Royals have lost 5 straight road games with Kennedy on the hill — and they have also lost 10 of their last 11 night games with Kennedy on the mound. He faces a still hot-hitting Astros lineup that is hitting .281 over their last seven games with a .354 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .804 over that span. Furthermore, Houston has won 25 of their last 33 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, because Houston has not committed more than one error in their last 39 games, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 72% effective over the last five seasons. McCullers has a WHIP of 1.09 over his last ten starts — and home favorites who have not committed more than one error in at least ten straight games using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower over his last ten starts have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 47 of the last 65 situations (when priced in the +100 to -190) when these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (923) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Ian Kennedy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-18 |
Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (919) and the Tampa Bay Rays (920) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Wilmer Font. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (35-40) won the opening game of this series by a 2-1 score last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Tampa Bay has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They give the ball to Font who is 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP this season in 33 1/3 innings of work. Since entering the starting rotation, he has allowed only one earned run in 8 innings of work over two starts. He will be asked to pitch 3 to 4 innings before handing things off to the Tampa Bay bullpen that has a 2.83 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP at home this year. New York (50-23) is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Yankees have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, New York has played 11 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total on the road. They counter with Gray who is 5-4 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in fourteen starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where his ERA drops to a 2.93 mark along with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228. The Under is 5-1-1 in the Yanks’ last 7 road games with Gray on the hill. He faces a cold Rays lineup that is scoring only 1.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .581. Lastly, Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Handicapping the Rays pitching situation can be a bit trickier with their experiment with using bullpen relievers in modified roles as the starter two to four times a week. Font has pitched well in that role while Gray is a different pitcher away from Yankee Stadium. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Tampa Bay O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (919) and the Tampa Bay Rays (920) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Wilmer Font. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-18 |
Blue Jays v. Angels -145 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (978) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (977) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Marco Estrada. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (40-35) has won their last two games with their 8-5 win in the opening game of this series with the Blue Jays.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angels has won 6 of their last 8 games after a win. The Angels have also won 6 of their last 7 games at home. They give the ball to Heaney who is 3-5 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twelve starts this season. The left-hander has been very tough at home where he sports a 2.35 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and .179 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 5.13 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .268 opponent’s batting average on the road. LA has won 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with Heaney facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Blue Jays that have lost 8 straight road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto (34-40) has lost 13 of their last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Blue Jays have also lost 4 straight games on the road. They counter with Estrada who is 4-6 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 5.46 mark with a 1.55 WHIP and .303 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Toronto has also lost 5 of their last 6 games with Estrada facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Angels team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .269 batting average, .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .806 over that span. LA has won 7 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Heaney is very tough when he is pitching at home — he should outpitch Estrada while being supported by a better team. 20* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (978) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (977) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Marco Estrada. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-18 |
Marlins v. Rockies OVER 11 |
|
3-11 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Jon Gray. THE SITUATION: Miami (29-46) has lost three of their last four games with their 6-5 loss in San Francisco on Wednesday. Colorado (37-38) has won three in a row with their 6-4 win in New York over the Mets yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after an off-day. Miami has also played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They give the ball to Chen who is 2-3 with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in ten starts. The left-hander has been a disaster on the road where he sees his ERA rise to an 8.88 mark with a 1.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .340 in six starts. The Marlins have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Chen on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Rockies team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .305 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .883. Additionally, the Over is 6-2-1 in the Colorado’s last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rockies have seen the Over go 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after a victory. The Over is also 10-2-1 in Colorado’s last 13 games at home. They counter with Gray who is 6-7 with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander is struggling at home in Coors Field where he sees his ERA rise to a 6.45 mark along with a 1.59 WHIP and .301 opponent’s batting average in seven starts. Gray has an ERA of 7.36 over his last two starts. The Over is also 6-2-2 in the Rockies’ last 10 games when facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Marlins team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The number is high with this game being played in the hitter’s park of Coors Field. But with these two struggling pitchers and a surging Rockies lineup, this situation is worthy of investment. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-18 |
Dodgers -143 v. Mets |
|
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) versus the New York Mets (958) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Zack Wheeler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (38-35) has lost three of their last four games after their 4-0 loss in Chicago to the Cubs on Wednesday. New York (31-41) has lost three straight games with their 6-4 loss to the Rockies yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should bounce-back as they have won 8 of their last 9 games after a loss. The Dodgers have also won 6 straight games after an off-day. LA stays on the road where they have won 10 of their last 13 games. They give the ball to Wood who is 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in fourteen starts. The sabermetrics call for immediate improvement in those numbers with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.66 and 3.44 moving forward. The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 19 road games with Wood on the mound. He should fare well against this Mets team that has lost 6 of their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 16 of their last 21 games after a loss. The Mets have also lost 23 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 16 of their last 22 home games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Wheeler who is 2-5 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has a 5.14 ERA along with a 1.51 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average in six starts. New York has lost 6 straight home games with Wheeler on the hill. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 8 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won 9 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers started slow but have since won twenty-one of their last thirty games. They should defeat this struggling Mets team. 10* MLB Super Under Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) versus the New York Mets (958) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Zack Wheeler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-18 |
Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Tampa Bay Rays (966) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Ryne Stanek. THE SITUATION: New York (50-22) has won seven of their last eight games with their 4-2 win over Seattle yesterday. Tampa Bay (34-40) has lost five of their last seven contests with their 5-1 loss at Houston on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have seen the Under go 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after a win. Additionally, New York has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.20 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 1.22 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average at home. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record — and they have also played their last 4 games Under the Total with Sabathia starting in Tampa Bay. The veteran will be supported by a bullpen that is second in the AL with an ERA of 2.86. He faces a cold Rays lineup that is scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .191 batting average along with a .267 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .558 over that span. The Under is also 7-1-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 9 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rays return home for the first time since June 13th. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games after being on the road for at least seven days — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Additionally, The Under is 19-7-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 28 games after a loss — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. They counter with Stanek will pitch the first inning tonight with it being a “bullpen game” for the Rays. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run this month in 10 2/3 innings consisting of eight appearances. He should be followed by Ryan Yarbrough who is pitching his regular fifth turn in the make-shift rotation out of the pen where he usually pitches 4 to 5 innings. Yarbrough is 5-3 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season — and he has a 4.19 ERA with 1.08 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .229 when at home.
FINAL TAKE: The combination of Stanek and Yarbrough is solid for the Rays while Sabathia continues to cruise in the twilight of his career where he is thriving as a crafty lefty. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Tampa Bay Rays (966) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Ryne Stanek. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-18 |
Orioles v. Nationals UNDER 7 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Washington Nationals (920) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (21-51) won the second game of this series last night with their 3-0 shutout victory over the Nationals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a victory. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Gausman who is 3-6 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in fourteen starts. The sabermetrics call for immediate improvement in those numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.62 and 3.54 moving forward. The Orioles have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Gausman on the hill. He should fare well against this Nationals team that has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington (39-33) has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Nationals have seen the Under go 17-7-4 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in Interleague play. They counter with Scherzer who is 10-3 with a 2.06 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.95 ERA with a 0.71 WHIP and .144 opponents batting average in seven starts. He should pitch another gem against this Orioles team that has played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Expect those trends to continue tonight. 10* MLB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Washington Nationals (920) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-18 |
Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
101 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (967) and the Minnesota Twins (968) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (32-37) won the second game of this series yesterday by a 6-2 score over the Red Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Twins have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games at home. They give the ball to Lynn who is 4-5 with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander started slow but has been excellent as of late with a 3.20 ERA over this last eight starts. Lynn has also been much better at home where he sports a 3.13 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .216. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Lynn making the start. He should pitch well against this Red Sox team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Boston (49-25) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Red Sox have also played 13 of their last 19 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Price who is 8-4 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been very tough as of last as well as he boasts a 2.64 ERA over his last seven starts with a 1.04 WHIP with 47 strikeouts over those 44 1/3 innings of work. Price has also been better on the road where he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.59 and 1.13 marks. Boston has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total with Price on the hill and favored at least at a -110 price. He should pitch well against this Minnesota team that has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both these starting pitchers have pitched much better after slow starts in the month of April. With the Total set in the 8.5 range, expect a lower-scoring game. 10* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (967) and the Minnesota Twins (968) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-18 |
Cardinals v. Phillies -110 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (952) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (38-33) won the second game of this series yesterday by a 7-6 score as a small road underdog. This series concludes this afternoon in this getaway game.
REASONS TO TAKE PHILADELPHIA WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Phillies (38-33) has bounced-back by winning a decisive 35 of their last 52 games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by just one run. Philadelphia has also won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Phillies have also won 18 of their last 25 when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. They give the ball to Arrieta who is 5-5 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he enjoys a 1.69 ERA along with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 in six starts. Arrieta’s teams have won 3 of their last 4 home games when priced in the +/- 125 range. St. Louis has lost 7 of their last 10 games after a win — and they have also lost 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Wacha who is 8-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has sees his ERA rise to a 3.54 mark in his five starts away from home — and the Cardinals have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Wacha facing a team with a winning record. he faces a hot-hitting Phillies team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .268 batting average along with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .838 over that span. Philadelphia has also won 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have been very good coming off losses — and Arrieta should outpitch Wacha this afternoon. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (952) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-18 |
Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Angels |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Arizona Diamondbacks (927) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (928) listing both starting pitchers Matt Kock and Felix Pena. THE SITUATION: Arizona (40-32) has won eight of their last eleven games with their 7-4 win over the Angels last night. Los Angeles (38-35) has lost three straight games as well as seven o father last eight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Arizona has won 5 of their last 7 games are a victory — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have won 4 straight games on the road. Furthermore, Arizona has been dangerous underdogs who have won 15 of their last 21 games when priced in the +100 to +150 price range — and they have won 7 of their last 11 road games as a dog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They give the ball to Koch who is 5-3 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.93 ERA and .250 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA and .253 opponent’s batting average at home. The Diamondbacks have won their last 4 games with Koch on the hill. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Angels have played six straight Overs — and they have then lost 13 of their last 18 games after playing at least four straight games Over the Total. LA has also lost a decisive 14 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Pena making his first major league start of his career after pitching 2 2/3 innings in relief where he allowed three runs and five hits. The 28-year-old right-hander has been mediocre in Triple-A this season where he has a 1-2 record with a 3.51 ERA. He faces a hot-hitting Arizona lineup led by a Woke Paul Goldschmidt who is 27 of 69 (.426) over his last seventeen games while crushing seven homers with 18 RBIs over that span. The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average along with a .336 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .775 over that span. Arizona has won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The slumping Angels with an unproven rookie pitcher making his first Major League start in his career represent very shaky favorites. The Diamondbacks have been good as an underdog — and with them priced no higher than -150 with the advantageous +1.5 Run-Line, let’s attack. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Tuesday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with the Arizona Diamondbacks (927) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (928) listing both starting pitchers Matt Kock and Felix Pena. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-18 |
Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 7 |
|
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Boston (49-24) begins this series coming off a 9-3 win in Seattle on Sunday. Minnesota (31-37) enters this game after they lost in Cleveland to the Indians by a 4-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Boston has played 4 straight games Under the Total after an off-day. The Red Sox stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record overall. They give the ball to Sale who is 6-4 with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander has been even better on the road where he owns a 2.56 ERA along with a 0.87 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in nine starts. Boston has played 5 straight Unders on the road with Sale facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Twins team that has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota (31-37) has seen the Under go 5-1-1 in thinner last 7 games at home — and the Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Jose Berrios who is 7-5 with a 3.51 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.12 ERA with a 0.77 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in eight starts. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Twins’ last 8 home games with Berrios facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Red Sox team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a pitcher’s duel. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Angels -113 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (968) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (967) listen both starting pitchers Jaime Barria and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (38-34) looks to bounce-back from losing six of their last seven games after their bullpen let them down yesterday in a 6-5 upset loss in Oakland. They host an Arizona team (39-32) has lost two in a row with their 5-3 loss to the Mets yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has rebounded to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by just one run. The Angels have also won 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 4 straight games at home — and they have won 13 of their last 18 home games against teams in Interleague play. The Angels have also won 4 straight opening games of a new series. They give the ball to Barria who is 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA along with a 1.11 WHIP in eight starts this season. The rookie right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.14 ERA along with a 1.00 WHIP in four starts. LA has won 4 of their last 6 games with Barria pitching at night. He should fare well against this Diamondbacks team that has lost 7 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Arizona had only scored four runs in their last two games — and they have lost 13 of their last 19 games after scoring no more than three runs in two straight games. Now the Diamondbacks go back on the road for the first time since June 10th after playing their last seven games at home. Arizona has lost 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record. The Diamondbacks have also lost 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Greinke who is 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in fourteen starts this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 5.91 ERA along with a 1.40 WHIP and .296 opponent’s batting average in six starts. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road with Greinke on the hill. Lastly, he faces an Angels team that has won 7 of their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The rookie Barria should outpitch Greinke who usually is much more comfortable when he pitches at home. We have taken the Diamondbacks a few times in their recent home stretch — but this team has struggled on the road. 10* MLB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (968) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (967) listing both starting pitchers Jaime Barria and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-18 |
Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Chicago (40-27) snapped their three-game losing streak last night with their 6-3 victory over the Cardinals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have now seen the Under go 39-19-2 in their last 61 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the third game of a series. They give the ball to Quintana who is 6-4 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been very tough on the road where he owns a 2.68 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in seven starts. The Cubs have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with Quintana pitching as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 range — and they have also played 12 of their last 14 road games with Quintana pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Chicago has also played 10 straight road games Under the Total with Quintana pitching with five or six days of rest. Quintana has found a groove over his last three starts as he owns a 2.04 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP. He should pitch well against this Cardinals team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Under is also 16-5-1 in St. Louis’ last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Cardinals (36-32) has seen the Under go 13-6-3 in their last 22 games after a loss — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. St. Louis has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 17 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Flaherty who is 3-2 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in eight starts. The rookie phenom has been better at home where he owns a 0.96 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 1.25 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. He faces a slumping Cubs’ offense that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .221 batting average along with a .309 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .645. Lastly, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a pitcher’s duel tonight with these two starters facing two teams swinging cold bats. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-18 |
Nationals v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 |
|
6-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 1:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (927) and the Toronto Blue Jays (928) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Sam Gaviglio. THE SITUATION: Toronto (32-38) with the second game of this series yesterday by a 2-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays have seen the Under go 15-7-2 in their last 24 games after scoring two runs or less in the last game. Toronto has also seen the Under go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games at home — and they have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog. They send out Gaviglio who is 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander has been very tough at home where he enjoys a 0.54 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and .177 opponent’s batting average in two starts. Gaviglio’s teams have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog with him making the start. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .223 batting average along with a .287 On-Base Percentage and a .582 OPS over that span. Washington (37-30) has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when facing right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, the Nationals have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Washington has not clubbed a home run in the first two games in this series — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not hitting a home run in at least two straight games. The Nationals’ bullpen has surrendered only one run in their last five games for a 0.75 ERA — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or better over their last five games. They counter with Roark who is 3-7 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.45 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in seven starts. Washington has played 5 straight road games Under the Total with Roark on the hill. He should pitch well against this Blue Jays team that has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both starting pitchers should pitch well this afternoon. The personality of both teams strongly suggests another lower-scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (927) and the Toronto Blue Jays (928) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Sam Gaviglio. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-18 |
Mets v. Diamondbacks -142 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the New York Mets (909) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Seth Lugo. THE SITUATION: Arizona (38-30) has won seven of their last eight games with their 6-3 victory over the Mets in the opening game of this series yesterday. New York (28-37) is mired in a terrible losing streak having lost eleven of their last twelve games as well as eighteen of their last twenty-two contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Diamondbacks have also won 6 of their last 7 games at home. They give the ball to Godley who is 6-5 with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.93 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP in five starts. Arizona has won 6 of their last 9 home games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range with Godley on the hill. He faces a cold Mets’ lineup that is scoring only 1.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .137 batting average along with a .196 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .473 over that span. New York has lost 8 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 13 of their last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Mets have lost 9 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have lost 13 of their last 15 games after losing four of their last five games. New York has also lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road along with 22 of their last 30 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Lugo who is 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 45 2/3 innings. This will be his third of the start season but it occurs on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.45 mark along with a 1.09 WHIP. The Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Lugo making the start. He faces a red-hot Diamondbacks team that is scoring 8.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .292 batting average along with a .372 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .891 over that span. Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona is playing very good baseball again after enduring a bad stretch in May which coincided with a lengthy stretch of games on the road. My man, Paul Goldschmidt, is woke with his bat again. The Mets are a mess right now, especially with their bats. 20* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the New York Mets (909) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Seth Lugo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-18 |
Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Reynaldo Lopez. THE SITUATION: Detroit (33-37) begins this series coming off a 3-1 win over the Twins on Wednesday. Chicago (24-43) looks to bounce-back from a 5-2 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 6 straight home games Under the Total. They give the ball to Lopez who is 2-4 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.85 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .147 in five starts. The Under is 4-1-1 in the White Sox’s last 6 games with Lopez on the hill. He faces cold Tigers lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .278 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .642 over that span. Detroit has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Tigers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Detroit has also played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road. They counter with Fiers who is 5-3 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in five starts as compared to his 1.41 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Tigers’ last 4 games with Fiers on the mound. He faces a White Sox team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .188 batting average along with a .250 On-Base Percent and an OPS of .530 over that span. Lastly, the Under is 16-5-3 in Chicago’s last 24 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower scoring game featuring two suspect offense that mired in slumps. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Reynaldo Lopez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-18 |
Nationals -125 v. Blue Jays |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-125 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (927) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (928) listing both starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Aaron Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (37-28) enters this game coming off a 5-4 win in New York over the Yankees on Wednesday. Toronto (30-38) has lost three straight games with their 1-0 loss in Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONAL WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Washington has won a decisive 23 of their last 30 road games after a win by just one run — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs. The Nationals have also won 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 15 of their last 20 games on the road. Additionally, Washington has won 7 of their last 8 games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Gonzalez who is 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.43 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in six starts. The Nationals have won 13 of their last 19 road games with Gonzalez on the hill. He faces a Blue Jays team that has lost 17 of their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has lost 7 of their last 9 games after a loss — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. Additionally, the Blue Jays have lost 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Sanchez who is 3-5 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has a 1-3 mark with a 4.63 ERA over his last seven starts. Furthermore, the sabermetrics suggest things could be even worse for Sanchez with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.10 and 5.04 moving forward. In his seven home starts, Sanchez has a 1.55 WHIP — and the Blue Jays have lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Sanchez on the hill. Toronto has also lost 9 of their last 10 games with Sanchez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Washington team that has won 21 of the last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Nats have won 9 of their last 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has been a better team on the road this year with their 22-12 mark. With a significant edge in starting pitchers tonight, we are getting great value with the Nationals with them priced below our -150 money-line threshold. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Interleague Game of the Year with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (927) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (928) listing both starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Aaron Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-18 |
Rays v. Yankees -1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (966) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Tampa Bay Rays (965) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: New York (43-20) has lost two of their last three games with their 5-4 loss to Washington yesterday. Tampa Bay (32-35) has won three straight games with their 1-0 win over the Blue Jays as a small home underdog yesterday. The Rays travel to the Bronx to begin this four-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has bounced-back to win 37 of their last 52 games after a loss. The Yankees have been outstanding at home where they have 42 of their last 54 games — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record. The Yanks are outscoring their visitors by +1.4 Runs-Per-Game when playing in Yankee Stadium. They give the ball to their rookie Domingo German who is 0-4 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in six starts. The hard-throwing right-hander has 53 strikeouts in 47 1/3 innings of work which is one of the reasons why the sabermetrics are calling for significant improvements in the runs he allows moving forward. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.71 and 3.96 moving forward. He should pitch well against this Rays team that has lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has lost 21 of their last 24 games after upsetting a AL East rival as a home underdog. The Rays have also lost 4 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. And while they have only allowed one run in their last two games, they have lost 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. Additionally, Tampa Bay has lost 6 straight games on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Snell who is 8-3 with a 2.30 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in fourteen starts. Snell’s SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.48 and 3.47 moving forward. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 3.40 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in eight starts as compared to his 0.96 ERA and 0.94 WHIP when at home. Snell also struggles in New York against the Yankees where he has a 6.55 ERA — and the Rays have lost 6 straight games in Yankee Stadium with Snell making the start. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has lost 17 of their last 25 games with Snell pitching with four days of rest. He faces a New York team has that won 13 of their last 16 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, because the Yankees are scoring 5.4 Runs-Pe-Game, they are supported by an empirical angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 70% effective over the last five seasons. American League teams that score at least 5.1 Runs-Per-Game with a starting pitcher with an WHIP of 1.30 or lower now facing an American League starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or less have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line (priced in the +115 to +160 price range) in 33 of these last 47 situations where these conditions applied over the last five seasons.
FINAL TAKE: With the Yankees priced in the -160 range which is above my -150 threshold, the better risk/rewards investment is with the Run-Line. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Thursday FS1 Run-Line of the Year with the New York Yankees (966) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Tampa Bay Rays (965) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-18 |
Twins v. Tigers +1.5 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Tigers (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (919) listing both starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (29-34) won the opening game of this series yesterday by a 6-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE DETROIT PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Twins have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have lost 15 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Berrios who is 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in thirteen starts. But the right-hander has not been nearly as effective on the road where he has a 4.55 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 3.12 ERA with a 0.77 WHIP and .179 opponent’s batting average in eight home starts. Minnesota has lost 13 of their last 16 road games with Berrios on the hill. Detroit (31-37) has lost five of their last seven games — but they have won 10 of their last 14 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. The Tigers have also won 11 of their last 17 home games as an underdog priced at least at +125. They counter with Boyd who is 4-4 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in twelve starts. The left-hander has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 2.48 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and .186 opponent’s batting average in six starts. Detroit has won 5 straight home games with Boyd on the bump — and they have also won 5 straight home games with Boyd pitching as an underdog. He should fare well against this Twins team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Twins fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 70% effective over the last five seasons. Berrios has only issued one walk in each of his last two starts — and road favorites with a team batting not higher than .240 over their last twenty games (Minnesota: .236 batting average (676-160) in their last 20 games) using a starting pitcher who has not issued more than one walk in at least two straight starts have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 64 of the last 91 games when then priced in the +130 to -255 price range.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit is an intriguing money-line underdog in this situation given their success as home underdogs. But given the low price in taking the +1.5 Run-Line, the advantage that offers us make that the more prudent investment option. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Detroit Tigers (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (919) listing both starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-18 |
Pirates v. Diamondbacks -150 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-150 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Arizona (37-29) has won five straight games after their 13-8 victory over the Pirates in the second game of this series. Pittsburgh (32-35) has lost two straight as well as five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Surging Arizona has won 11 of their last 15 games after scoring at least eight runs in their last game — and they have won 7 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Diamondbacks have also won 5 straight games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Greinke who is 5-4 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.64 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average in seven starts. In fact, in his last eighteen starts at home going back to last season, Greinke is 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA. Greinke has only lost once in his last twenty-five starts at home. Arizona has won 21 of their last 27 home games with Greinke on the mound — and this includes them winning seventeen of their last nineteen home games with Greinke facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Pirates team that has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Pirates have also lost 17 of their last 23 games after dropping two of their last three games — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Taillon who is 3-5 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.13 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP in six starts. Pittsburgh has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Taillon on the mound. He faces a red-hot Arizona lineup that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .295 batting average along with a .361 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .852 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: I expected the money-line price on the Diamondbacks to rise this morning — but it is stabilizing in the -150 range in enough locations for this opportunity to still fit within my parameters. Let’s attack. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-18 |
Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Jhoulys Chacin. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (40-27) won the second game of this series yesterday with their 4-0 win over the Cubs. They host the final game of this series this afternoon in this getaway game.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago (38-26) has played 30 of their last 42 road games Under the Total after a shutout loss in their last game. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cubs have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Montgomery who is 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The left-hander has a microscopic 1.02 ERA in three spot starts this season for the injured Yu Darvish — and he has 1.35 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP on the road. He comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one run in 6 innings of work against the Pirates — and Chicago has played 4 straight games Under the Total when Montgomery is looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Brewers team that has seen the Under go 10-3-2 in their last 15 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee has not scored more than four runs in three straight games — and they have then played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after scoring no more than four runs in at least three straight games. The Under is also 19-6-1 in the Brewers’ last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Chacin who is 5-1 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in fourteen starts. Over his last eleven starts, Chacin sees his ERA drop to a 2.92 mark. In his five starts at home, Chacin has a 2.79 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average. Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Chacin on the mound. He faces a slumping Cubs offense that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .199 batting average along with a .276 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .568 over that span. Chicago has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams this afternoon. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Jhoulys Chacin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-18 |
Mets v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: New York (28-34) snapped their eight-game losing streak on Sunday with their 2-0 win over the Yankees. Atlanta (37-28) has lost three of their last four games with their 7-2 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less. The Mets have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Wheeler who is 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Three of Wheeler’s last four starts were registered as Quality Starts. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 45 games with Wheeler facing a fellow NL East opponent. Atlanta (37-28) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Braves have also played 5 straight games Under the Total at home. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 5-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six starts this season. The right-hander has an outstanding 0.97 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .167 in his last six starts. Foltynewicz has only given up two earned runs or less in twelve of his thirteen starts this season. The Under is 5-1-2 in Atlanta’s last 8 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. The Mets’ bats are ice-cold as they are scoring average 1.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .143 batting average along with .211 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .454 over that span. Lastly, New York has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With two starting pitchers performing very well right now along with the anemic Mets’ bats in this game, expect a low-scoring contest. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-18 |
Nationals v. Yankees UNDER 9 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (975) and the New York Yankees (976) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and C.C. Sabathia. THE SITUATION: Washington (36-27) has lost two of their last three games with their 2-0 loss to San Francisco on Sunday. New York (42-19) saw their four-game winning streak on Sunday with their 2-0 loss to the Mets.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an off day. Additionally, the Under is 37-14-6 in their last 57 road games — and this includes them playing fours straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They give the ball to Roark who is 3-6 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twelve starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.29 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in six starts. The Under is 16-5-1 in Washington’s last 22 road games with Roark facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees team scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .197 batting average along with a .277 On-Base Percentage and .671 OPS over that span. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an off day. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They counter with Sabathia who is 3-1 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in eleven starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in six starts. The Under is 13-6-1 in the Yankees’ last 20 home games with Sabathia on the hill. He faces a Nats team also struggling with their bats. They are hitting only .217 over their last seven games with a .277 On-Base Percentage and .613 OPS over that span. Lastly, Washington is scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With cold offenses facing two good starting pitchers that perform well in this situation, expect a low scoring game. 10* MLB Tuesday Night First Pitch with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (975) and the New York Yankees (976) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-18 |
Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and David Hess. THE SITUATION: Boston (45-22) won the opening game of this series last night with their 2-0 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Rodriguez who is 7-1 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in twelve starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 0.97 WHIP and .163 opponent’s batting average in four starts. Boston has seen the Under go 20-8-2 in their last 30 road games with Rodriguez on the mound — and this includes them playing six of their last eight road games Under the Total with Rodriguez facing a team with a losing record. Rodriguez faces an Orioles team that is scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .181 batting average along with a .257 On-Base Percentage and .523 OPS over that span. Baltimore (19-46) has also played 6 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Orioles have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Baltimore has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Hess who is 2-2 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in four starts. The right-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 3.00 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in two starts. The Orioles have played 5 straight games Under the Total with Hess on the hill. Lastly, he faces a Red Sox team that has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect both starting pitchers to have the upper hand in this contest. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and David Hess. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-18 |
Pirates v. Diamondbacks -143 |
Top |
5-9 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Arizona (35-29) swept the Rockies in Colorado over the weekend with their 8-3 win yesterday. The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last nine games — and they face a Pirates team (32-33) that has lost sixteen of their last twenty-two games despite their 7-1 win in Chicago yesterday over the Cubs.
REASONS TO TAKE ARIZONA WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Diamondbacks have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They return home for the first time since June 3rd — and they have won 5 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Arizona has also won 5 of their last 6 games at home at Chase Field. They send out Corbin who is 6-2 with a 2.87 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 0.78 WHOP and an opponent’s batting average of .171 in seven starts. The Diamondbacks have won 16 of their last 23 home games with Corbin on the hill. He should thrive against this slumping Pirates team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .210 batting average along with a .289 On-Base Percentage and .588 OPS over that span. Pittsburgh has lost 16 of their last 21 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Pirates have lost 6 straight games after a win — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in three starts this season. The sabermetrics call for significant regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.81 from the deeper peripheral numbers of these three starts. This the left-hander’s first start away from home this year after posting a 5.15 ERA with the Astros on the road last season. He faces a red-hot Arizona lineup led by the Woke Paul Goldschmidt who was 8 of 15 over the weekend while blasting four home runs and driving in seven runners. The Diamondbacks are scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .274 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .813 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: While Arizona opened as a -160 money-line favorite, that price has dropped below my -150 maximum threshold in most locations. Let’s attack. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-18 |
Blue Jays v. Rays +105 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (912) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (911) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Yarbrough and Sam Gaviglio. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (29-35) has lost nine of their last ten games after a 5-4 loss to the Mariners yesterday. Toronto (30-35) has won four straight games with their 13-3 victory over the Orioles yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Blue Jays have lost 10 of their last 13 games after a victory. Toronto has also lost 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 18 of their last 25 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. And in their last 6 games on the road, Toronto has lost 5 of these contests. They send out Gaviglio who is 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in four starts. The right-hander has struggled in his two starts on the road where he has a 5.25 ERA — and that is consistent with last year when he had a 5.40 ERA when pitching away from home. Tampa Bay is in the midst of a losing streak but five of those nine losses in their last ten games were by just one run to two first-place teams in their divisions in Seattle and Washington who have a combined 77-51 record. The Rays lead the Major League in one-run losses. But Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Yarbrough who is 4-2 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP this season. The left-hander usually pitches from the bullpen beginning in the second inning but he has lasted at least 5 innings in seven straight appearances. Yarbrough has a 1.02 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average at home this year — and the Rays have won 11 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record. Yarbrough should pitch well against this Blue Jays team that has lost 16 of their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them login six straight road games against left-handed starters.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is a bit undervalued given the bad breaks they have endured with all their one-run losses. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (912) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (911) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Yarbrough and Sam Gavigio. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-18 |
Yankees v. Mets UNDER 7 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
107 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (979) and the New York Mets (980) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Seth Lugo. THE SITUATION: The Yankees have won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests with their 4-3 win over the Mets in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory. And while their bullpen has not allowed an earned run in six straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after their bullpen has not surrendered an earned run in at least three straight games. They give the ball to Severino who is 9-1 with a 2.20 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP this season. Over his last ten starts, the right-hander has an ERA of 1.85 after allowing only one earned run in 8 innings of work at Detroit in his last start. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 9 games when Severino is looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Mets’ team that is scoring only 1.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .145 batting average along with a .222 On-Base Percentage and a .470 OPS over that span. The Mets have scored only eleven runs during their eight-game losing streak. They have 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by two or more runs. Additionally, the Mets have played 5 straight games Under the Total at home — and they have played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Lugo who is making a spot start out of the bullpen after pitching four scoreless innings in his last previous start this year. For the season, Lugo has a 1-1 record with a 2.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP — and he has been even better at home where he enjoys a 1.13 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP. The Mets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Lugo making the start. He faces a Yankees team that is hitting only .230 with a .303 On-Base Percentage and a .763 OPS over their last seven games. The Yankees have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Severino should continue his outstanding pitching tonight against the anemic Mets’ offense — while the Yankees are not hitting the ball great right now and Lugo is undervalued. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (979) and the New York Mets (980) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Seth Lugo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-18 |
Angels v. Twins UNDER 9 |
|
5-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (973) and the Minnesota Twins (974) listing both starting pitchers Nick Tropeano and Fernando Romero. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (37-28) has won six straight games with their 2-1 win over the Twins in the second game of the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels have seen the Under go 10-1-2 in their last 13 games after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Tropeano who is 3-3 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been much better on the road where he sports a 2.55 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in four starts. The Under is 5-1-1 in the Angels’ last 7 road games with Tropeano on the mound. He faces a Minnesota team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Additionally, the Twins have played 8 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota (27-34) has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 5-0-1 in the Twins’ last 6 games at home. They counter with Fernando Romero who is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in seven starts. The right-hander has been better at home where he sports a 2.70 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP in three starts. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games with Romero facing a team with a winning record. He faces an Angels team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. LA has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 17-6-3 in the Angels’ last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set at 9, this game should finish below that number. 20* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (973) and the Minnesota Twins (974) listing both starting pitchers Nick Tropeano and Fernando Romero. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-18 |
Yankees -150 v. Mets |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (929) versus the New York Mets (930) while listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: The Yankees (41-18) have won three straight games — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 4-1 win over the Mets in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Bronx Bombers have won 13 of their last 16 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Yankees have also won 16 of their last 21 games on the road — and this includes them winning six of their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 9 games in Interleague play, New York has won 8 of these games. They give the ball to German who is 0-4 with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics are for the 25-year hard-throwing right-hander are encouraging as both his SIERA and xFIP project that he should be allowing at least one run less per game given those respective 4.03 and 4.16 marks. He should fare well against this ice-cold Mets team that is scoring only 1.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .139 batting average, .223 On-Base Percentage and .439 OPS over that span. The Mets are also scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .215 batting average with a .289 On-Base Percentage and .618 OPS. The Mets have lost 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 — and they have lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have lost seven straight games — and they have also lost 18 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Matz who is 2-4 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eleven starts. He sees his ERA jump to a 4.75 mark in his six starts at home — and the left-hander had a 10.38 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP at home last year. The Mets have lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Matz facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees team that has won 20 of their last 28 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Matz consistently struggles at home in Citi Field — and German is undervalued. The Yankees are a much better team than the Mets and the money-line has stabilized this afternoon at my maximum -150 price range in most locations which makes this a strong play (even if you have to invest a little more). 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Saturday Fox-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Yankees (929) versus the New York Mets (930) while listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-18 |
Angels +108 v. Twins |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
108 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (917) versus the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-28) has won five games in a row with their 4-2 win over the Twins in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 4 straight games after a win. The Angels have also won 19 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have won 13 of their last 16 road games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. They have also won 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 4-4 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in twelve starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road with a 2.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in six starts — and LA has won 5 of their last 7 road games with Skaggs making the start. He faces a Twins team that has lost 4 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota (27-33) has lost 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Twins have also lost 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Gibson who is 1-3 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has struggled at home with a 5.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in six starts. Minnesota has lost 13 of their last 21 home games with Gibson pitching when priced in the +/- 125 price range. He will likely struggle against this Angels team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have won 15 of their last 21 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Gibson’s strong stretch over the last twelve months has consistently included him pitching much better on the road. The Angels are the better team with an edge at starting pitcher this afternoon in this situation. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (917) versus the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-18 |
Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 8 |
|
12-3 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (903) and the Philadelphia Phillies (904) listing both starting pitchers Brent Suter and Jake Arrieta. Milwaukee (38-225) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 12-4 victory over the Phillies.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have still played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Milwaukee has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total during the day. They give the ball to Suter who is 5-4 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.77 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in six starts. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Suter facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Philadelphia team (32-29) that is only scoring 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .193 batting average along with a .273 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .567 over that span. The Phillies has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a left-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Phillies have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total. They counter with Arrieta who is 5-3 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been sensational at home where he enjoys a 0.84 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .182. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 starts with Arrieta on the hill. He faces a Brewers team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and the Under is 44-14-1 in their last 59 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Despite yesterday’s scoring fest, both these teams are wishing cold bats. Expect a pitcher’s duel this afternoon. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon First Pitch with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (903) and the Philadelphia Phillies (904) listing both starting pitchers Brent Suter and Jake Arrieta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-08-18 |
Astros -1.5 v. Rangers |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
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100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (973) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (974) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Doug Fister. THE SITUATION: Houston (39-25) won the opening game of this series yesterday with their 5-2 victory over the Rangers.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston should build off the momentum from that win tonight as they have won a decisive 38 of their last 54 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Houston has also won 45 of their last 64 road games when priced as at least a -125 favorite. They give the ball to Verlander who is 7-2 with a 1.24 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The right-hander has been even better on the road where he owns a minuscule 0.44 ERA in six starts. The Astros have won 5 of their last 6 road games with Verlander on the hill. He faces a Texas team (27-38) that has lost 19 of their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The Rangers are scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .215 batting average along with a .308 On-Base Percentage and .698 OPS over that span. Texas has lost 31 of their last 46 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the Rangers have won two of their last three games, they have lost 15 of their last 21 games after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, Texas has lost 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have lost 6 straight home games as an underdog priced at least at +175. They counter with Fister who is 1-6 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eleven starts this year. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.39 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP and .312 opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Rangers have lost their last 5 games with Fister pitching on four days of rest. He is likely in more trouble tonight against this Astros team that has won 21 of their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Lastly, Texas falls into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective over the last five seasons. The Rangers have a slugging percentage of .389 this season — and American League home underdogs with a slugging percentage no better than .400 facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 0.80 or lower over his last three starts (Verlander: 0.72 WHIP over his last three starts) have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 70 of the last 108 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: Verlander has raised his game to another level since being traded to Houston from Detroit. He should outduel Fister who is getting crushed in Globe Life Park in Arlington. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League West Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (973) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (974) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Doug Fister. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-07-18 |
Tigers v. Red Sox -1.5 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Jalen Beeks and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Boston (43-19) has won four straight games — as well as seven of their last nine games — with their 7-1 victory over the Tigers in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston has on 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games are allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Red Sox have won a decisive 22 of their last 30 games at home in Fenway Park. They are pounding the ball at home by averaging 6.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .291 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .849. They called up rookie Jalen Beeks to make his major league debut in this game. The left-hander has been outstanding in Triple-A where he enjoyed a 2.56 ERA with 80 strikeouts in just 56 2/3 innings of work. He has a great chance for a memorable debut against this slumping Tigers team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests along with a .220 batting average, .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .624 per that span. Detroit (29-34) has lost 11 of their last 15 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Tigers have lost 22 of their last 32 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Detroit has also lost 39 of their last 54 games on the road including dropping six straight to teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Boyd who is 3-4 with a 3.23 ERA and a WHIP of 1.08 in eleven starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that those numbers are due for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.82 and 5.09 moving forward. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he owns a 4.23 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in five starts. The Tigers have lost 8 of their last 9 road games with Boyd on the hill. He faces a Red Sox team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, Detroit falls into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 62% effective over the last five seasons. Road underdogs with a batting average of .200 or lower over the last three games (Detroit: .191 batting average last three games) now facing a team with a slugging percentage over .440 in their last twenty games (Boston: .501 slugging percentage over their last 20 games) have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -160 to -115 price range) in 58 of the last 93 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: With Boston a pricy money-line favorite in the -190 range (and well above my -150 maximum threshold), the value is in taking the Red Sox minus the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Thursday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with the Boston Red Sox (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Jalen Beeks and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-07-18 |
White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 |
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2-7 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
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At 1:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (909) and the Minnesota Twins (910) listing both starting pitchers James Shields and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Chicago (20-39) has won the last two games of this series after defeating Minnesota (26-32) by a 5-2 score in the third game of this series. This four-game series concludes this afternoon in this getaway game.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the White Sox have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last two games on the road against a divisional rival. They give the ball to Shields who has a 1-6 record with a 4.48 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in twelve starts this season. Knock me down with a feather but Shields has an impressive 3.45 ERA over his last seven starts which has been attributed to the lowering of his arm angle when releasing the baseball. He has been more effective on the road with a 1.17 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average in four starts away from home. Chicago has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Shields pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Minnesota (26-32) has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with a double-revenge. The Twins have also played 6 straight home games Under the Total again teams with a winning record below 40% on the road. This is Minnesota’s eighth straight game at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing at least five straight games at home. And in their last 13 games when favored at a price of at least -150, the Twins have played 9 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Berrios who is 6-5 with a 3.86 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in twelve starts this season. The right-hander has been better at home where he owns a 3.35 ERA along with a 0.79 WHIP and .176 opponent’s batting average in seven starts. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Berrios pitching in the month of June. Lastly, the Under is 10-3-3 in the White Sox’s last 16 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The starting pitchers should have the upper hand in this afternoon tilt. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (909) and the Minnesota Twins (910) listing both starting pitchers James Shields and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-05-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 |
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3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
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At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Francisco Giants (912) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (30-30) won the opening game of this series last night by a 10-3 score over the Diamondbacks.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have seen the Over go 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a win — and the Over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least nine runs. And in their last 6 home games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range, the Giants have played 5 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is making his first start of the season after recovering from a broken left pinkie finger. The left-hander was 4-9 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP last year. Bumgarner was not quite as effective at home last year as he saw his ERA rise to a 3.40 mark. But the bigger concern for Bumgarner was that he began to lose some of his bite on his four-seam fastball last season. From 2013 to 2016, Bumgarner has a swinging strike rate of 11.9% on that pitch but that plummeted to a 7.3% mark last year which was even below the 7.7% MLB average for four-seamers. He saw his opposing hitter’s Isolated Power rate skyrocket to a .340 rate in the last two months of the season which is more than double than the .150 MLB average for this metric that identifies extra-base hits. In his last thirteen starts, Bumgarner had a 3.43 ERA and with a 1.10 WHIP with a 21.6% strikeout rate while seeing the velocity on his fastball drop to just 90.7 MPH. While those are still numbers not to sneeze at, they are all worse than what he experienced in his previous four seasons. He faces an Arizona team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .258 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817 over that span. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have seen the Over go 7-0-1 in their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Arizona (31-28) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total coming off a loss. The Diamondbacks have also played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And in their last 14 games with the Total set at 7.0 or lower, Arizona has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Corbin who is 5-2 with a 2.99 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in twelve starts this season. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.07 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP in five starts. The Diamondbacks have seen the Over go a decisive 41-19-2 in their last 62 road games with Corbin on the hill — and this includes them playing ten of their last twelve road games Over the Total with Corbin pitching with the Total set at 7 or less. He faces a Giants team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are hitting the ball well right now. The Total is set at a low 7 with Bumgarner back on the bump — but both Corbin and he are overvalued in this situation. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Francisco Giants (912) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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