09-08-21 |
Tigers v. Pirates OVER 9 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 6:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (928) listing both starting pitchers Matt Manning and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (50-89) has won two games in a two in a row after their 3-2 victory against the Tigers last night. Detroit (65-75) has lost the opening two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have now played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total this month — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games in Interleague play against losing teams. They give the ball to Keller who has a 4-10 record with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns an 8.31 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in eleven starts as opposed to his solid 3.63 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average .269 when pitching on the road. Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Keller on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Tigers team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .276 Batting Average, .348 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .853. The Over is 16-7-1 in Detroit’s last 24 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 20-9-2 in the Tigers’ last 31 in Interleague play on the road. Additionally, the Tigers have played 5 straight games with the Total set at 9-10.5 — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog. They counter with Matt Manning who has a 3-6 record with a 6.29 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. Although the rookie has pitched only 63 innings, he may be getting fatigued after not pitching last year with the minor leagues shut down because of COVID. In his last five starts, Manning has a 7.30 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings. In his six starts on the road, the right-hander has an 8.16 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .319. He faces a Pirates team scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .258 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .742. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two rust belt teams when playing in Pittsburgh. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (928) listing both starting pitchers Matt Manning and Mitch Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-21 |
Nationals v. Braves -1.5 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (953) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Paolo Espino. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (72-64) returns home after a seven-game road trip that ended with a 9-2 win at Colorado on Sunday. Washington (57-80) has won two of their last three games after a 4-3 victory against the New York Mets yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has won 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have also won 5 in a row after an off-day. And while they lost five of their seven games on their road trip, they have then won 22 of their last 32 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Atlanta returns home where they have won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Braves have also won 21 of their last 27 games when favored — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Fried who has an 11-7 record with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 23 starts. The left-hander started slow this season — but he has been outstanding as of late. In his last seven starts, Fried has a 1.76 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Fried has been a bit more effective at home where he owns a 3.11 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in 11 starts as compared to his 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259. In ten starts at night, Fried has a 3.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216. The Braves have won 35 of their last 50 games with Fried pitching under the lights. They have also won 20 of their last 26 games in the second half of the season with Fried on the mound. He faces a Nationals team that has lost 9 of their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Washington has lost 4 straight games after a win. This team has lost 42 of their last 59 games in a lost season where they sold Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the trade deadline. They go back on the road where they have lost 20 of their last 26 games — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. The Nationals have also lost 23 of their last 28 games against NL East rivals. They counter with Espino who has a 4-4 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 30 appearances which includes 14 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.28 and 4.50 moving forward. He has a 3.79 ERA in his 54 2/3 innings at home — but his ERA rises to a 4.60 mark in his 31 1/3 innings on the road. And since August, the right-hander has been saddled with a 6.57 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings. The Nationals have lost 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog with Espino pitching. Washington has lost four in a row against the Braves after getting swept at home in their last encounter on the weekend ending on August 15th. The Nationals have lost 9 of their last 10 games when playing an opponent that has beaten them at least four times in a row — and they have lost 14 of their last 17 games when attempting to avenge two straight losses to their opponent at home.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 14 of their 22 victories when priced at -155 or higher this season— and they have won 13 of these last 16 situations as they started playing better this summer. Washington has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 20 of their last 26 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — including 7 of these last 8 situations. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (953) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Paolo Espino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-05-21 |
Twins v. Rays -1.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (967) listing both starting pitchers Luis Patino and Griffin Jax. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (86-50) has won two straight games after their 11-4 victory at home against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (58-77) has lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay should keep rolling this afternoon having won 15 of their last 18 — and when they win, they usually do so by more than one run (detailed in the Final Take). The Rays have won 51 of their last 66 games after a win — and they have won 44 of their last 61 games after a victory by more than one run. Tampa Bay has also won 32 of their last 42 games after a win by four or more runs. The Rays have not allowed more than four runs in four straight games — and they have won 27 of their last 39 games after not allowing an opponent to score more than four runs in three straight games. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has won 38 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won 12 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They give the ball to Patino who has a 4-3 record with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 11 starts and 13 appearances overall. The right-hander has stepped up as of late in his last two starts against top-level teams in the Chicago White Sox and the Boston Red Sox. Patino allowed only three earned runs in those starts — he sported a 2.31 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in those 11 2/3 innings. Patino has a 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in 31 1/3 innings. The Rays have won 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set from 8.5-10 with Patino on the hill. He should thrive against this Twins team that is scoring only 2.8 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .198 Batting Average, .258 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .333 over that span. Minnesota has not scored more than four runs in six straight games — and they have then lost 10 of their last 11 games on the road after not scoring more than four runs in at least four games. The Twins have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road. They counter with Jax who has a 3-3 record with a 6.71 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP this season. He struggles on the road with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 28 innings. He was saddled with a 7.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in five starts last month. Now he faces this Rays team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-game in their last seven games with a .806 OPS.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 19 of their 28 victories this season when they were priced at -155 or higher — and after a middling 8-9 start in those situations, they have covered the last 11 times in those circumstances. Minnesota has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 12 of their 13 losses this season priced at +145 or higher — including not covering in 9 straight. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Year with the Tampa Bay Rays (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (967) listing both starting pitchers Luis Patino and Griffin Jax. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-21 |
Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-130 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Blue Jays (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (967) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Matt Harvey. THE SITUATION: Toronto (69-62) had their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 4-2 loss to the Orioles. Baltimore (41-90) ended a four-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Orioles have lost 5 of their last 7 games after a victory amidst a historically bad season. Baltimore is getting outscored by -1.8 Runs-Per-Game. They have lost 23 of their last 26 games — and they covered the +1.5 Run-Line just twice in those 23 losses. And while they pulled the upset last night with Toronto priced at a big -300 price, they have then lost 9 of their last 12 games after upsetting an AL East rival when priced at +130 or higher. Furthermore, they have lost 40 of their last 51 games on the road — and they have lost 47 of their last 58 games against teams with a winning record. The Orioles’ bullpen has a 9.53 ERA in their last seven games — they have allowed 18 earned runs in 17 innings. Baltimore has lost 29 of their last 31 games when their bullpen has been saddled with an ERA of 7.00 or worse in their last seven games. They give the ball to Harvey who has a 6-14 record with a 6.18 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP this season. The right-hander had a momentarily spell in July where he found his groove — but it went away as he returned to form in August where he had a 6.12 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in five starts. His teams have lost 17 of their last 25 road games priced at +150 or higher when he is making the start. He faces a Blue Jays team that scores 5.3 Runs-Per-Game at home. Toronto has won 10 of their last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays have won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has won 13 of their last 19 games at home when favored — and they have won 20 of their last 25 home games when priced in the -175 to -250 range. They counter with Matz who has a 10-7 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. The left-hander comes off an outstanding month — he sported a 1.30 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. He should thrive against this Orioles team that has lost 26 of their last 35 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Blue Jays have won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has won 7 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss at home where they priced as a -250 or higher money-line favorite. The Blue Jays have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 22 of their 27 victories when priced at -155 or higher this season. Baltimore has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 45 of their 56 losses when priced at +145 or higher this season. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line of the Month with the Toronto Blue Jays (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (967) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Matt Harvey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-21 |
Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (70-59) has lost four of their last six games after their 5-3 loss on the road to the Dodgers in Game One of this series last night. Los Angeles (82-49) has won two of their last three games and five of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers bashed four home runs last night against the Braves — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they hit four or more home runs. The Under is also 19-4-3 in Los Angeles’ last 26 games after a win — and the Under is 12-3-5 in their last 20 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 24-8-4 in the Dodgers’ last 36 games at home — and the Under is 11-4-2 in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 23 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Under is 16-5-2. Buehler gets the start tonight after he pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his last outing at San Diego last Wednesday. Los Angeles has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Buehler pitching on five or six days rest. The right-hander has a sparkling 13-2 record this season with a 2.02 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 26 starts. Since the All-Star break, Buehler has a 1.32 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in eight starts spanning 54 2/3 innings — and he has struck out 64 batters over that span. In 22 starts under the lights at night, Buehler has a WHIP of 0.88 while holding opposing batters to a .180 batting average. The Dodgers have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with Buehler pitching as a money-line favorite priced from -150 to -200. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .290 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .702 over that span. The Under is 3-1-2 in Atlanta’s last 6 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total. The Under is also 11-4-2 in Atlanta’s last 17 games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Morton who is 12-5 this season with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 26 starts. The right-hander will look to bounce-back from his last appearance last Tuesday when he allowed four runs in five innings against the Yankees. He gave up two home runs in that game — and that was the first time he surrendered multiple home runs in a game since June of 2019. Morton has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191. He has a 3.34 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at night. And in his last five starts, he boasts a 3.10 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. He should continue to pitch well against a Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .195 Batting Average, .262 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .623. Los Angeles has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 17-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games as a favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when hosting the Braves in Dodger Stadium. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-21 |
Cardinals v. Reds -1.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Reds (952) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (71-61) has lost two in a row after their 2-1 loss at Miami yesterday. St. Louis (66-63) has lost seven of their last twelve games after a 4-3 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Cincinnati managed only four hits yesterday in their loss to the Marlins — but they have then won 8 of their last 11 games after not scratching out more than four hits in their last game. The Reds have won 28 of their last 41 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series. After playing their last four games on the road, Cincinnati returns home where they have won 4 straight games. The Reds have also won 24 of their last 31 home games when favored — and they have won 10 of their last 11 home games when favored in the -175 to -250 price range. They give the ball to Castillo who has a 7-13 record with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 27 starts. After a disastrous start to the season, the right-hander has found his groove — in his 16 starts since the beginning of June, Castillo has a 2.74 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Castillo has been more effective at home at the Great American Ballpark where he has a 3.50 ERA in 13 starts — and he sports a 1.04 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in his last four starts at home. Cincinnati has won 9 of their 12 home games with Castillo pitching as a favorite priced in the -175 to -250 price range. He should pitch well against this Cardinals team that has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 in a row against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. St. Louis has lost 4 straight opening games to a new series. They continue their road trip having lost 13 of their last 19 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 19 of their last 28 road games as an underdog. They give the ball to Lester who has a 4-6 record with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in 21 starts. In his five starts in a Cardinals uniform since being traded by Washington, the left-hander has a 6.04 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .343. He has been hit very hard on the road this season with a 6.15 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and .329 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. His teams have lost 7 of their last 9 road games with him pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. He faces a Reds that scores 5.5 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have won 4 straight home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals upset the Reds in their last meeting on July 25th by a 10-6 score in Cincinnati — but Cincy has won 16 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. The Reds have still won 6 of their last 7 meetings between these two teams — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games when playing at the Great American Ballpark.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of their 18 victories this season when priced at -155 or higher — and St. Louis has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their 14 losses this season when priced at +145 or higher. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Cincinnati Reds (952) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-29-21 |
Rays v. Orioles OVER 10.5 |
Top |
12-8 |
Win
|
101 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the Baltimore Orioles (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Spenser Watkins. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (81-48) has won six in a row and ten of their last eleven after their 4-3 victory against the Orioles yesterday. Baltimore (40-68) has split out their last four games after enduring a nineteen-game losing streak.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 15-5-1 in the Rays’ last 21 games after a win — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a victory by two runs or less. Tampa Bay has not allowed more than four runs in six straight games — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in six games in a row. Additionally, the Rays have played 20 of their last 29 road games Over the Total as a road favorite priced at -110 or higher — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. They give the ball to Archer who has an 0-1 record with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP this season after recently returning from the 60-day disabled list from a hip injury. Archer did not pitch last season as he recovered from shoulder surgery — but his 6.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 11 road starts is cause for concern. The right-hander may be able to reinvent his once-bright career — but he probably needs a full offseason to work out the kinks. He has pitched only one time on the road this year where he surrendered four hits and three runs in two innings of work. His teams have played 35 of their last 52 road games Over the Total in the second half of the season. He faces an Orioles team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .285 Batting Average, .341 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .869. The Over is 19-7-1 in Baltimore’s last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore had a 3-0 lead going into the top of the seventh inning yesterday before their bullpen surrendered two runs apiece in the next two innings. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after blowing a save in their last game. The Over is 29-14-1 in their last 44 games at home — and the Over is 23-10-1 in the Orioles’ last 34 home games with the Total set from 9-10.5. The Over is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They counter with Spenser Watkins who has a 2-6 record with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in 10 games (nine starts) this season. The right-hander has been crushed as of late — he has been saddled with a 10.67 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his last six starts while allowing at least four earned runs in each of those appearances. Watkins has been less effective at home at Camden Yards where he has a 7.59 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .337. Baltimore has played 5 straight Overs this season when Watkins is pitching at home as a money-line underdog. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 27-10-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 39 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Rays have won the last eleven meetings between these two teams — Baltimore has played 37 of their last 55 games Over the Total when having lost at least five in a row to their opponents. The Over is 8-2-1 in those last 11 encounters between these two teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing in Baltimore. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the Baltimore Orioles (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Spenser Watkins. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-21 |
Yankees -148 v. A's |
Top |
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (921) versus the Oakland A’s (922) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Sean Manaea. THE SITUATION: New York (75-52) won their twelfth straight game after their 7-6 win on the road against the Athletics in the opening game of this series last night. Oakland (70-58) has lost five in a row and nine of their last eleven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York is as hot as any team in MLB right now — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Yankees have won 43 of their last 63 games after a win. Furthermore, New York has won 5 straight games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 8 road games when favored. And in their last 32 games against teams with a winning record, the Yankees have won 23 of these games. They give the ball to Cole who has a 12-6 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP this season. Since returning from COVID quarantine, the right-hander has allowed only one run in 11 2/3 innings in two starts for a 0.77 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP with 15 strikeouts. Cole also dominates when he is pitching at night — he has a 1.87 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 when pitching under the lights. His teams have won 39 of their last 53 games when he is pitching at night. Oakland has lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they are scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .212 Batting Average, .275 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .643. The A’s have lost 6 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They have lost 5 games in a row at home — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 home games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Manaea who is also slumping as of late. The lefty has an 8-8 record this season with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 25 starts — but in his last four starts, he has a 9.76 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. Workload could be an issue — his 138 1/3 innings this season overwhelm the 90 innings he has pitched in the previous two seasons combined. Manaea also has a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in his 13 home starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average on the road. Oakland has lost 5 of their last 7 home games when a money-line underdog priced at +125 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games during this hot streak with an OPS of .802 over that span. They have also won 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. I am agnostic about New York’s winning streak (except that I think momentum exists since it is positive energy) — this is enticing given the pitching matchup between two starters moving in the opposite direction. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (921) versus the Oakland A’s (922) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Sean Manaea. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-21 |
Rangers v. Indians OVER 9 |
Top |
6-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (967) and the Cleveland Indians (968) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Sam Hentges. THE SITUATION: Texas (44-82) has lost six of their last eight games after their 7-2 loss on the road against the Indians in the opening game of this series last night. Cleveland (62-62) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Over is 3-0-1 in the Rangers’ last 4 games on the road — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Texas has also played 18 of their last 26 road games Over the Total when a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They give the ball to Lyles who has a 6-10 record with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. The right-hander comes off one of his best outings of the season where he allowed just one run in seven innings of work at Boston last Saturday. His teams have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when he is following up a start where he allowed no more than one earned run. Lyles had been saddled with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his previous three starts. His ERA rises to a 5.40 mark in his 71 2/3 innings on the road — and the Rangers have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Lyles pitching with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. His teams have also played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total when he is making a start in August. He faces a Tribe team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .289 Batting Average, .341 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .845. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. They clubbed four home runs last night — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after hitting at least four homers in their last game. They have also played 29 of their last 48 games Over the Total after winning at least two of their last three games. They counter with Hentges who is 1-4 with a 7.52 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP this season. The lefty pitched four innings in his last start which is rare — he does not usually pitch more than one time through the order when he is used as a starting pitcher. He has a rough 8.75 ERA with a 2.07 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings at night. His teams have played his last 4 starts at night Over the Total. His teams have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when he is the starting pitcher in games with the Total set from 8.5 to 10.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have struggled at the plate most of the season — but they are hitting better as of late. They are scoring 4.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .287 Batting Average, .325 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .744 during that span. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (967) and the Cleveland Indians (968) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Sam Hentges. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-21 |
Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-3 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (79-47) has won 10 of their last 11 games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. San Diego (68-59) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 5-2-1 in Los Angeles’ last 8 road games against teams with a winning record. The Under is 13-5-2 in their last 20 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Buehler who has a 13-2 record with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 25 starts this season. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he owns a 2.07 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in ten starts. He has been extremely tough to hit since the beginning of June. In his last 15 starts consisting of 98 innings, he has a 1.74 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. The Dodgers have played 8 of their last 13 games in August with Buehler making the start. Buehler should have success against this slumping Padres team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 Batting Average with a .272 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .628. San Diego has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have played 5 straight Unders following a loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after giving up five or more runs in their last game. Furthermore, San Diego has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog. They counter with Snell who is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 23 starts. The left-hander’s inconsistency seems to coincide with his home/road splits. Snell is saddled with a 7.01 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .301 in his 13 starts on the road — but he enjoys a 2.68 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .175 in his 10 home starts at Petco Park. Snell has found a groove this month — he has a 2.45 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in four starts this month with 34 strikeouts in his 22 innings. Despite last night’s victory, Los Angeles is scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .221 Batting Average, .291 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .690.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .218 Batting Average. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-21 |
Dodgers -132 v. Padres |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) versus the San Diego Padres (962) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Pierce Johnson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (78-47) had their nine-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 7-2 loss to the New York Mets. San Diego (68-58) has lost five of their last six after a 7-4 loss to the Phillies on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Padres are a bit of a hot mess right now. After the bullpen surrendered seven runs on Sunday, manager Jayce Tingler fired pitching coach Larry Rothschild to once again fulfill the old adage regarding the inability of managers to be able to fire all the players. Bullpen coach Ben Fritz takes over as the pitching coach with the hopes that the shakeup and new voice will fix a struggling pitching staff. San Diego has lost 10 of their last 12 games after their bullpen allows at least six runs in their last game. The problem is not just the bullpen either as the starting pitchers are not going deep into games. The Padres’ bullpen has pitched at least four innings in eight straight games — and San Diego has lost 13 of their last 21 games when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in at least three straight games. Furthermore, the Padres have lost 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, San Diego has lost 21 of their last 29 home games as an underdog. Injuries have played a role with this struggling pitching staff that got Rothschild fired. Because You Darvish is on the shelf, Tingley is relying on a bullpen game tonight with Pierce Johnson serving as the opener. The right-hander has a 3-2 record with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 43 1/3 innings. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP of 3.23 and 3.49 moving forward. This will be his first start of the season — and beginning a game has a different dynamic to it than coming on in relief. He along with the struggling an overworked Padres’ bullpen that has a 5.02 ERA in their last seven games faces a Dodgers team that scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Los Angeles has a sparkling 15-4 record this month after the shot in the arm at the trading deadline where they brought in Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Danny Duffy. The Dodgers have won 4 straight games when rebounding from a loss — and they have won 42 of their last 59 games after an off-day. Los Angeles has also won 28 of their last 38 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they have won 7 of their last 8 games — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Urias who is coming off the injured list after dealing with a left calf issue. He has a 13-3 record for the season with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 24 starts. In his last nine starts since late June, Urias has stepped up with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 54 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.88 ERA. 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in 14 starts. The Dodgers have won 11 of their last 13 road games with Urias pitching as a road favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a San Diego lineup that is also slumping — they are saddled with a .226 Batting Average, 0.308 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .725 in their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have lost four in a row to the Padres with their last meeting being on June 23rd when San Diego when at home in Petco Park by a 5-3 score. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 6 games when playing a team that has beaten them at least four times in a row — and they have won 6 of their 9 games this season when playing with triple revenge. 25* MLB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) versus the San Diego Padres (962) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Pierce Johnson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-21 |
Angels v. Indians -114 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (974) versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Jose Suarez. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (60-61) has won five of their last eight games with their 5-1 victory against the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (62-63) has lost the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland has won 23 of their 31 home games this season as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. They give the ball to Quantrill who has a 3-2 record with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 33 games and 15 starts this season. The right-hander has found his groove this summer since joining the starting rotation. In his nine starts since the beginning of July, Quantrill has a 2.41 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He allowed eight hits and three runs in his last start in five innings at Minnesota on August 16th — and that was the first time in his last six starts where he allowed more than four base hits. He returns home where he sports a 2.81 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .234 this season in 57 2/3 innings. He should pitch well against this slumping Angels team that is hitting just .223 with a .286 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .668 in their last seven games. Los Angeles has only scored two runs in this series with no home runs. The Angels have lost 14 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than four runs in two straight games — and they have lost 15 of their last 23 games after not hitting a homer in at least two games in a row. Los Angeles only stranded two runners last night as well — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 games are stranding three runners or less in their last contest. Furthermore, the Angels have lost 5 of their last 7 road games as a money-line underdog. LA counters with Jose Suarez who has a 5-6 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 16 games and seven starts this season. The sabermetrics call for regression for the left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.21 and 4.13 moving forward. Suarez has a 4.79 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in his nine games and five starts under the lights at night — and the Angels have lost 13 of their last 15 games when he is the starting pitcher for a night game. Suarez does come off a nice outing where he allowed only two runs on the road against the Yankees last Monday — but he had been saddled with a 6.75 ERA in his previous four starts. Manager Joe Maddon has an overworked bullpen that will likely need to support him tonight. An LA starting pitcher has not completed four innings in their last three games — and the Angels have lost 9 of their last 14 games when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland won the opening game of this series by a 9-1 score on Friday — and the Angels have lost 18 of their last 26 games when playing with double revenge in two losses where they did not score more than two runs. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (974) versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Jose Suarez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-21-21 |
Diamondbacks v. Rockies -137 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (910) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: Colorado (56-66) has won four games in a row after their 9-4 victory against the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this series. Arizona (41-82) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado has won 10 of their last 12 games at home after a win by four or more runs — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Rockies are a much better team at home — they come off a three-game sweep at Coors Field against San Diego. They have won 38 of their last 53 games at home — and they have won 22 of their last 30 home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. They have won 14 of their last 18 home games when priced as a money-line favorite from -110 to -150. They have also won 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Freeland who has a 4-6 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 15 starts. The left-hander has been better under the lights where he owns a 3.90 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 11 starts. Freeland has been a much better pitcher this summer as he owns a 2.93 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts since the beginning of July. In his last five starts at home, Freeland has a 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The Rockies have won 5 of their last 7 home games with Freeland the starting pitcher. He should pitch well against this Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .218 Batting Average, .240 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .646. Arizona has lost 37 of their last 54 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks have lost 52 of their last 68 games after a loss. Arizona has now lost 41 of their last 52 games on the road — and they have lost 20 of their last 27 road games against teams with a losing record. The Diamondbacks have also lost 25 of their last 30 road games against fellow NL West rivals. Arizona has lost 19 of their last 27 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Gallen who has a 1-7 record with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 15 starts. Over his last seven starts since the start of July, Gallen has a 6.56 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. The right-hander sees his ERA jump to a 5.50 mark in his seven starts on the road — and the Diamondbacks have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Gallen on the mound. He will likely struggle against this Rockies team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .293 Batting Average, .337 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .835. Colorado also scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .289 Batting Average, .397 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .843. The Rockies have won 20 of their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 6 straight games at Coors Field against the Rockies. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Month with money-line on the Colorado Rockies (910) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-21 |
Braves -1.5 v. Marlins |
Top |
11-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (957) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (958) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (64-56) has won eight of their last nine games after a 2-0 win on the road against the Marlins last night. Miami (51-69) has lost the first two games of this series after losing the opener by a 12-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has won 13 of their last 16 games — and they have won 4 straight games after a victory. The Braves have also won 6 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. This is a team hit hard by injuries earlier in the season — and the season-ending knee injury could have put this team in the tank. Instead, they have kept plugging away — and management gave the group a vote of confidence by being aggressive at the trade deadline to acquire Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall to bolster the lineup and Richard Rodriguez to reinforce the bullpen. Atlanta has won a decisive 60 of their last 98 road games when favored — and they have won 6 in a row on the road against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Morton who has an 11-4 record with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 24 starts this season. In three starts this month, the veteran right-hander has a 2.00 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197. Morton has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.09 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .196 in 10 starts. His teams have won 13 of their last 14 road games when favored at -125 or higher with him making the start. He should thrive against this Marlins team that scores only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .239 Batting Average, .298 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .667. Miami has lost 20 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Marlins have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. Additionally, Miami has lost 18 of their last 24 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game — and they have lost 42 of their last 56 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Marlins managed only four base hits yesterday — and they have lost 12 of their last 16 games after not getting more than four hits in their last game. Miami has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. They counter with Luzardo who has a 4-5 record with a 7.52 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in 52 2/3 innings. The left-hander hander has a 9.20 ERA with a 1.91 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in his three starts in a Marlins uniform since they acquired him from Oakland. Luzardo has potential — but his command and proclivity to give up home runs are holding him back at this point. He has also been saddled with an 8.78 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .321 in 26 2/3 innings. He faces a Braves team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .840 slugging percentage. Atlanta also tears up left-handed pitching as they score 6.2 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .265 Batting Average, .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .812. The Braves have won 7 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost 20 of their last 29 games when avenging two straight losses to their opponent where they did not score more than two runs. Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their last 11 victories when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. The Marlins have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their last 21 losses when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line of the Year with the Atlanta Braves (957) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (958) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-21 |
Astros -1.5 v. Royals |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (929) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (930) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Daniel Lynch. THE SITUATION: Houston (70-48) has lost two games in a row after losing to the Royals by a 7-6 score last night. Kansas City (50-67) snapped a four-game losing streak before winning the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston has bounced back to win 8 of their last 12 games after a loss by just one run — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games when motivated to avenge a loss by just one run. The Astros have won 19 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Houston has still won 15 of their last 20 road games when favored. They give the ball to Valdez who is 8-3 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season. The left-hander comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one earned run in six innings of work against Colorado last Wednesday. The Astros have won 10 straight games when Valdez is following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in six starts as opposed to his 3.15 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in eight starts at home. Valdez also has a 2.95 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in his nine starts at night. He should pitch well against this Royals team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City had lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 15 of their last 22 home games after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Royals have lost 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 home games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Lynch who has a 2-3 record with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in seven starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 7.00 mark in four starts at home. And in his five starts at night, Lynch has a 7.71 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .273 Batting Average, .337 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .791.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 26 of their 32 victories this season when priced as a -155 or higher money-line favorite. Kansas City has not covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 17 of their 23 losses this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Run-Line Deal with the Houston Astros (929) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (930) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Daniel Lynch. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-16-21 |
Padres v. Rockies +1.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Colorado (52-66) has lost five of their last six games after their 5-2 loss at San Francisco yesterday. San Diego (67-53) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 8-2 win at Arizona yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado did upset the Giants on Saturday — and they have won 14 of their last 18 games at home after losing two of their last three games. They have also won 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And while the Rockies have not scored more than four runs in their last six games, they have then won 8 of their last 10 games at home after not scoring more than four runs in their last game. Now Colorado returns home where they have been much better this season — the last time they played at Coors Field, they scored 13 runs back on August 8th. The Rockies have won 35 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. They give the ball to Senzatela who has a 2-9 record with a 1.43 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander has produced a Quality Start in three of his last four efforts — so he should at least keep the Rockies in the game. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 11 starts as compared to his 5.80 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .335 opponent’s batting average on the road. In his last six starts at home, Senzatela has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The Rockies have won 10 of their last 12 home games in the second half of the season with Senzatela on the mound — and they have won 13 of their last 20 home games with Senzatela pitching as an underdog. He should pitch well against this Padres team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .243 Batting Average, .310 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .709 in their last seven games. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres did not commit an error over the weekend in their series with Arizona — but they have lost 12 of their last 18 road games after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Additionally, San Diego has lost 39 of their last 58 road games with the Total set at 11 or higher — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games when favored. They counter with Weathers who is 4-5 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 21 games this season which includes 15 starts. The left-hander has struggled as of late with a 10.80 ERA and a 2.31 WHIP in his last three starts. He also has a 5.01 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his 15 games and 11 starts under the lights at night. San Diego has lost 6 of their last 7 games in the second half of the season with Weathers making the start. He faces a Rockies team that scored 5.9 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .286 Batting Average, .344 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .832.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won 7 of their last 10 games against San Diego — and they have won 4 straight games at Coors Field against the Padres. While the money-line is an option, I prefer taking the added insurance of the +1.5 Run-Line with it priced below my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Colorado Rockies (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-21 |
Astros -125 v. Angels |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (923) versus the Los Angeles Angels (924) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Patrick Sandoval. THE SITUATION: Houston (68-46) has won three of their last four games with their 5-1 win against Colorado on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-58) comes off a 6-3 victory against Toronto yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 22 of their last 31 games after a win — and they have won 37 of their 55 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also won 50 of their last 68 games after an off day. They go on the road where they have won 6 of their last 8 grad games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 13 of their last 16 road games when favored. They give the ball to Greinke who has a 10-3 record with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 23 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .217 in 10 starts. Houston has won 7 of those 10 road starts this season — and they have won all 4 games when Greinke was starting as a road favorite. He should pitch well against this Angels team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 Batting Average, .309 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .629. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Angels had lost four of their last five games before their win against the Blue Jays. They have still lost 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Sandoval who has a 3-5 record with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 13 starts and 16 overall appearances. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.94 and 3.71 moving forward. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.26 ERA and 1.09 WHIP — but those numbers are not as good at home where he has a 3.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The Angels have lost 12 of their last 14 games this season with Sandoval pitching against an AL West rival.
FINAL TAKE: Houston is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .274 batting average, .338 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .791. 10* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Houston Astros (923) versus the Los Angeles Angels (924) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Patrick Sandoval. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-21 |
Marlins v. Padres OVER 8 |
Top |
7-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the San Diego Padres (902) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Miami (47-67) has lost five games in a row with their 6-5 loss on the road to the Padres yesterday. San Diego (66-49) has won four straight games as well as six of their last eight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing at least four games in a row. Miami has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Marlins have played 6 straight Overs on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. They give the ball to Alcantara who comes off his worst outing of the season where he was pummeled for seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work at Colorado on August 6th. For the season, the right-hander has a 6-10 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 23 starts. While I would typically expect a bounce-back performance after such a disappointing showing, my optimism is tempered by the deeper sabermetrics. Alcantara’s SIERA and xFIP both call for some regression at 4.09 and 3.89. Alcantara has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.58 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195 — but those numbers rise to a 4.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .267 opponent’s batten average in his 12 starts on the road. Miami has played 5 straight Overs with Alcantara facing a team from the NL West. He faces a hot-hitting Padres team even without an injured Fernando Tatis as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .293 Batting Average, .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .785. San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. San Diego has played 20 of their last 28 home games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5. range. They counter with Weathers who is 4-4 this season with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 69 2/3 innings. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.88 moving forward. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 5.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304. in 38 innings. His teams have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Weathers making the start. He faces a Marlins team that has played 4 straight road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in August — and San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in August. Lastly, the Over is 10-1-2 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams when playing in San Diego. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the San Diego Padres (902) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-10-21 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 |
Top |
7-8 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (71-41) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last nine with their 5-4 win at Milwaukee on Sunday. Arizona (35-78) has lost two in a row and seven of their last nine contests after a 2-0 loss at San Diego on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Diamondbacks are a hot mess. They have lost 43 of their last 52 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 21 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has lost 17 of their last 20 games after losing two in a row to a National League West rival. They managed only three hits on Sunday after scratching out just five hits in their loss on Saturday — and they have then lost 10 games in a row after not generating more than five hits in two straight games. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And in their last 10 games after an off day, the Diamondbacks have lost 8 of these games. They stay on the road where they have lost 44 of their last 55 games with the Total set from 7 to 8.5. They have also lost 10 of their last 11 games at San Francisco against the Giants. They give the ball to Gallen who has a 1-6 record with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The right-hander sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 5.10 and 1.40 marks in his six starts on the road. He has a 6.89 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his last three starts — and he comes off a season-high 109 pitches in his last outing at home against the Giants last Wednesday. Arizona has lost 8 of their last 9 games with Gallen pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 in a row with Gallen pitching with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. He will likely struggle against this Giants team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. They have won 39 of their last 55 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 22 of their last 32 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. San Francisco has won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after an off day. The Giants return home where they have won 39 of their last 54 home games when favored. They counter with Wood who has a 9-3 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 19 starts. The left-hander has had two subpar outings in a row but the deeper sabermetrics are still bullish with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.77 and 3.68 respectively. Wood has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 11 starts as compared to his 4.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .277 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. San Francisco has won 12 of their last 15 games when priced as a money line favorite at -110 or higher with Wood on the mound — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games at home with him pitching as a -110 or higher favorite. He should pitch well against this slumping Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .219 Batting Average, .286 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .590.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 34 of their last 44 losses when priced as a +145 or higher money-lien underdog this season. San Francisco has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of their 18 victories this season when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. With the Giants priced well above my -150 price threshold, let's lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Year with the San Francisco Giants (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-09-21 |
Marlins v. Padres -1.5 |
Top |
3-8 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (903) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Zach Thompson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (64-49) has won four of their last six games after their 2-0 win against Arizona yesterday. Miami (47-65) has lost three straight games — and nine of their last twelve — after a 13-8 loss at Colorado yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego has won 6 of their last 9 games after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. They have won 8 of their last 11 games after playing a low-scoring game where no more than two combined runs were scored. The Padres have won 30 of their last 43 games at home in Petco Park. They turn to Musgrove tonight who has a 7-7 record along with a 2.87 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 21 starts (22 games). Musgrove is enjoying a big year due to his increased use of his cutter and slider which account for over half his pitches. He deployed those two pitches just 30.6% of the time last year. The lefty did hit a rough patch in July, but he appears to have righted the ship. In his last three starts, Musgrove has only allowed three earned runs — he has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP with 20 strikeouts in those 19 innings. Musgrove sees his ERA lower to 2.52 mark in his 11 starts at home in Petco — and the Padres have won 6 of their 8 home games with Musgrove pitching with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. He should have success tonight against this Marlins team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .230 batting average, .291 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .674. Miami is 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage on the road against left-handed pitching. The Marlins have lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Miami has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also lost 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. The Marlins stay on the road where they have lost 37 of their last 53 games — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 road games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Thompson who is 2-4 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.22 and 4.17 moving forward. It has been a surprising season for the 27-year-old journeyman who was drafted in the fifth round in 2014. He is wildly overperforming his career 4.11 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in the minor leagues. The regression may already be coming with his velocity down 1.5 miles-per-hour in his last start. In his last three starts, he has a 3.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Miami has lost 7 of their 8 games this season with Thompson pitching as a money-line underdog. He faces a Padres team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .276 batting average, .340 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .766. San Diego has won 19 of their last 28 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Padres will be motivated tonight with the memory of losing their last two games to the Marlins in Miami on July 24th and 25th. San Diego has won 4 straight games when playing with double revenge.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 26 of their 32 victories this season when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. Miami has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their 20 losses this season when priced as a +145 or higher money-line underdog. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Year with the San Diego Padres (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (903) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Zach Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-08-21 |
White Sox -1.5 v. Cubs |
Top |
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (979) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zach Davies. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (65-46) has won the first two games in this series and four of their last six after their 4-0 viceroy over the Cubs yesterday. The Cubs (52-60) have lost three in a row and five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The White Sox have won 11 of their last 13 games on the road in August going back to last season. They have won a decisive 40 of their last 57 road games when favored — and they have won 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Cease who has an 8-6 record with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 22 starts this season. He comes off six shutout innings in his last outing against Kansas City where he struck out 11 batters last Tuesday. The sabermetrics are bullish on the right-hander with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.85 moving forward. The White Sox have won 4 of their last 5 road games with Cease pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Cubs team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .216 batting average, .284 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .660. The Cubs have lost 5 in a row at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have lost 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games after dropping the first two games of a series. The Cubs have lost 5 games in a row at home — and they have lost four in a row as a home underdog. They counter with Davies who has a 6-8 record with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 23 games this season. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.58 and 5.24 respectively. His teams have lost 8 of their last 11 games when he is starting in games with the Total set at 10 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 22 of their 28 victories this season when a money-line favorite priced at -155 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their 25 wins this year when a money-line favorited priced at -160 or higher (as they are tonight). The Cubs have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their last 7 losses when priced at +145 or higher since mid-June. With the White Sox priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Sunday Night Television Run-Line of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (979) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-07-21 |
Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 |
|
2-6 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Taylor Widener and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Arizona (35-76) won the opening game of this series last night by an 8-5 score. San Diego (62-49) has lost two straight and four of their last six.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks pulled off the upset last night priced in the +195 range — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after upsetting their last opponent priced at +130 or higher. Arizona has also played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games as a money-line underdog — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total as an underdog priced at +200 or higher. And in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 7-2-1 for the Diamondbacks. They give the ball to Taylor Widener who has a 1-1 record with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.46 in 9 starts this season. The right-hander has a 6.11 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his six starts under the lights at night this season — and Arizona has played 4 of those games Over the Total. He faces Padres team that has played 5 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has played 20 of their last 28 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Padres have played 6 straight Overs against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games. They counter with Darvish who has a 7-6 record with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander had a 2.44 ERA after the month of June — but he was saddled with a 7.36 ERA in his five starts in July. San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when priced at -200 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in San Diego. 10* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Taylor Widener and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-07-21 |
Rays -1.5 v. Orioles |
|
12-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (919) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (920) listing both starting pitchers Shane McClanahan and Spenser Watkins. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (66-44) has won six of their last eight games after their 10-6 victory over the Orioles in the opening game of this three-game series last night. Baltimore (38-70) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Orioles’ bullpen gave up eight runs in four innings of work for the second straight game to take the loss. Baltimore relievers have surrendered a whopping 22 earned runs in their last three games — and they have an 11.94 ERA in their last five games. This is creating a negative feedback loop for manager Brandon Hyde since he has to rely on tired arms when his starting pitchers need help. Baltimore has lost 11 of their last 12 games after their bullpen allowed at least six earned runs in their last game — and they have lost 19 of their last 20 games after being saddled with a bullpen ERA of 7.00 or worse in their last five games. The Orioles have lost 40 of their last 53 after a loss — and they have lost 27 of their last 36 games after losing three of their last four games. Baltimore has now lost 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. They give the ball to Watkins who has a 2-2 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in six games (five starts). The right-hander appears to be overachieving as his SIERA and xFIP both project an ERA of 5.42 and 5.49 moving forward. He faces a Rays team that has won 8 of their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Tampa Bay scores 5.5 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rays have won 39 of their last 52 games after a win — and they have won 22 of their last 29 games after winning their last game by four or more runs. Tampa Bay has won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Rays have won 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have won 14 of their last 17 road games in August. Tampa Bay has won 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. They give the ball to McClanahan who has a 5-4 record with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 16 starts. The lefty allowed only one run in six innings in his last start against the Red Sox. He induced 15 whiffs with each of his four pitches generating a swing-and-miss at least twice. McClanahan has not allowed more than three earned runs in nine straight starts — and he has a 2.57 ERA in his last four starts. The sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.34 moving forward. He has been a bit more effective on the road where he has an opponent’s batting average of .226 and a WHIP of 1.22 in seven starts as compared to his 1.33 WHIP and .254 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Rays have won 7 of their last 10 games when McClanahan is pitching after a win. Tampa Bay has won 4 in a row in Baltimore against the Orioles.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 35 of their 45 losses this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line of the Year with the Tampa Bay Rays (919) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (920) listing both starting pitchers Shane McClanahan and Spenser Watkins. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-06-21 |
Rays -144 v. Orioles |
|
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (963) versus the Baltimore Orioles (964) losing both starting pitchers Ryan Yarbrough and John Means. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (65-44) has won five of their last seven games after their 4-3 win against Seattle on Wednesday. Baltimore (38-69) has lost two straight and three of their last four games after a 10-3 loss in New York against the Yankees on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 38 of their last 51 games after a win. The Rays go back on the road where they have won 4 of their last 5 games — and they have won 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less, Tampa Bay has won 7 of these games. They give the ball to Yarbrough who has a 6-4 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 16 starts and 21 overall appearances. The left-hander has done his best pitching on the road where he has a 3.51 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in 10 games (eight starts) as opposed to his 5.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .272. The Rays have won 9 of their last 11 road games with Ray pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. He should pitch well against this Orioles team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 Batting Average, .275 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .662 over that span. Baltimore has lost 39 of their last 52 games after a loss — and they have lost 26 of their last 35 games after dropping three of their last four games. The Orioles return home after being on the road for seven straight games. They play their first game at home since July 28th — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Baltimore has lost 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. They have lost 38 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Means who has a 5-3 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 15 starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.11 and 4.15 moving forward. The left-hander sees his ERA rise to a 5.04 mark along with a 1.12 WHIP in his five starts at home. The Orioles have lost 7 of their last 9 games with Means pitching in August.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .802 OPS. They have won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (963) versus the Baltimore Orioles (964) losing both starting pitchers Ryan Yarbrough and John Means. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-04-21 |
Royals v. White Sox -1.5 |
Top |
9-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (973) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Carlos Hernandez. THE SITUATION: Chicago (63-44) has won three of their last four games with their 7-1 victory over the Royals last night. Kansas City (45-60) has lost four in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also won a decisive 50 of their last 68 home games when favored. The White Sox were big winners at the trade deadline as they addressed their two biggest needs at second base and in the bullpen. Chicago acquired Cesar Hernandez to be their new second baseman — and they added both Ryan Tepura and then Craig Kimbrell to bolster a pen that already had Liam Hendricks successfully closing games. They also recently got back slugger Eloy Jimenez back from the disabled list after he was out for the entire first half of the season. They send out Giolito for this contest. The right-hander has an 8-7 record with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 21 starts. Strangely, he has struggled against the Detroit Tigers this season as they have owned him with 16 runs scored in the 24 2/3 innings he has pitched against them in five starts. Take away the Tigers and Giolito has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in his 16 other starts. In his 10 starts at home. Giolito has a 3.14 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .197. And in his 11 starts at night, he has a 2.60 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191. He should have success against the Royals who are scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .182 batting average, .221 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. They are also just 27th in the MLB in a weighted On-Base Percentage of .279 on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has lost 36 of their last 51 games after a loss — and they have lost 22 of their last 27 games after losing at least three in a row. They have only scored two runs in their last three games — and they have lost 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than one run in two straight games. Additionally, the Royals have lost 37 of their last 51 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Carlos Hernandez who is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 34 1/3 innings this season. In his 11 innings on the road, the lefty has a 6.55 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. He faces a White Sox team that scores 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .260 batting average, .333 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .767 this season. Chicago has won 35 of their last 46 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 20 of their 26 victories this season when a money-line favorite priced at -155 or higher. The Royals have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 14 of their 20 losses this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (973) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Carlos Hernandez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-04-21 |
Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 2:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (952) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (951) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Steven Brault. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (64-44) had won six of their last seven games before dropping the second game of this series by an 8-5 score last night. Pittsburgh (41-66) had lost six of seven games before their victory last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Pittsburgh was trailing by a 4-0 score before scoring five runs in the top of the seventh inning — but they blew that lead in the bottom half of that inning with Milwaukee tying the score. A three-run top of the ninth inning salvaged the game for the Pirates — but they have lost 8 of their last 9 games after a blown save. Pittsburgh has lost 21 of their last 29 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Brault who makes his season debut this afternoon after being on the shelf all season with a left lat strain. The left-hander had a 1-3 record last season with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in ten starts (11 games). The sabermetrics were not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 5.07 and 4.85. Brault was more effective at home where he had a 2.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in six starts (seven appearances) — but those numbers declined to a 4.85 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and .235 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. Brault faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .265 batting average, .330 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .771. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. Additionally, the Brewers have won 26 of their last 35 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Milwaukee has won 30 of their last 44 games played in the daytime — and they have won 22 of their last 28 games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Peralta who has an 8-3 record with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 19 starts (20 games). The right-hander has almost been unhittable when pitching at home where he has a 1.91 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .107. He faced this Pirates team in Pittsburgh last Thursday where he pitched six scoreless innings while pounded the strike zone with 47 strikes in 68 pitches. The Brewers have won 5 straight games when Peralta is following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. Milwaukee has also won a decisive 23 of their last 26 home games when priced in the -250 to -330 price range.
FINAL TAKE: While the Brewers win rate when priced in this range is impressive, so is this: Milwaukee has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 14 of their last 18 victories when priced at -155 or higher. Losing 2.5 units per loss when investing in -250 favorites is simply too much — especially when the Brewers are covering the -1.5 Run-Line at a 78% rate when priced at -155 or higher. Even better: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 32 of their 36 losses this season when a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Milwaukee Brewers (952) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (951) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Steven Brault. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-03-21 |
Twins v. Reds OVER 9 |
|
7-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (925) and the Cincinnati Reds (926) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (44-62) has lost six of their last eight games after their 7-3 loss at St. Louis on Sunday. Cincinnati (56-50) has won five of their last six games with their 7-1 victory in New York against the Mets on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-1-1 in the Twins’ last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Minnesota stays on the road where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games — and the Over is 20-6-1 in their last 27 road games as an underdog. They give the ball to Maeda who has a 4-4 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The right-hander has been as good as ever at home where he owns a 2.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 — but those numbers rise to a 5.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in his 11 starts on the road. Maeda’s teams have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. He faces a Reds team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .293 batting average, .363 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .925. The Over is 4-1-2 in Cincinnati’s last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 4-0-3 in the Reds’ last 7 games after a game where they scored at least five runs. After playing their last seven games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. They counter with Mahle who has an 8-3 record with a 3.71 era and a 1.23 whip in 21 starts. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has an ERA of 6.07 and a WHIP of 1.48 with an opponent’s batting average of .269. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total with Mahle on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .258 batting average, .326 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .807 during that span. The Twins have played 4 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-2 in Minnesota’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (925) and the Cincinnati Reds (926) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-03-21 |
Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
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At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Blue Jays (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (915) listing both starting pitchers Hyun Jin Ryu and Zach Plesac. THE SITUATION: Toronto (54-49) had their four-game winning streak end yesterday afternoon in a 5-2 loss to the Indians. Cleveland (52-51) has won three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Toronto has bounced back to win 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Blue Jays are finally back playing in the Bell Centre in Toronto with Canada lifting COVID travel restrictions. They have won 6 of their last 8 games as the technical home team batting last per inning. They send out Ryu who has been one of their most consistent starting pitchers. The left-hander has a 10-5 record this season with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 20 starts. While the Rogers Centre lacks the familiarity as a true home field (and mound) for Ryu right now, he is not a starting pitcher who sees disparate home/road splits. His ERA and WHIP drop to 3.12 and 1.10 numbers in his 12 starts on the road this season — so the unfamiliarity should not be a factor. He should have success against this Indians team that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .226 batting average, .282 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 673. Cleveland has lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Indians have lost 5 straight games after a win — and they have lost 10 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Cleveland has lost 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have lost 18 of their last 25 games as an underdog. They counter with Plesac who is 6-3 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 4.02 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.59 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his six starts on the road. He faces a Blue Jays team scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game when hitting last in technical home games — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 14 of their 15 wins at home when priced at -155 or higher. Cleveland has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their last 13 losses this season priced when priced at +145 or higher. 10* MLB Run-Line Rout with the Toronto Blue Jays (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (915) listing both starting pitchers Hyun Jin Ryu and Zach Plesac. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-02-21 |
Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks |
|
11-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (957) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (958) listing both starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Taylor Widener. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (66-39) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests with their 5-3 win against Houston yesterday. Arizona (33-73) has lost two games in a row and four of their last six games after their 13-0 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco has won 17 of their last 25 games after a win — and they have won 23 of their last 32 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Giants have won 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have won 10 of their last 14 road games when favored. They give the ball to Sclafani who has a 10-5 record with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.50 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194. His teams have won 6 of their last 8 road games when priced as a favorite when he is pitching as a road favorite priced at -125 or higher. He should thrive against this Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .205 batting average, .291 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .646. Arizona has lost 40 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 41 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Arizona has lost 47 of their last 59 games after a loss. The Diamondbacks have also lost 19 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Arizona has lost 55 of their last 66 games when priced as an underdog — and they have lost 18 of their last 21 home games as a money-line underdog priced at +125 or higher. They counter with Taylor Widener who has a 1-1 record with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 8 starts this season. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.80 and 5.31 moving forward. In his two starts at home, Widener has a 7.45 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .349. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .254 batting average, .331 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .791. San Francisco has won 36 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 straight road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 11 of their 15 victories this season when priced at -155 or higher — and the Diamondbacks have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 29 of their 38 losses this season when a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the San Francisco Giants (957) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (958) listing both starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Taylor Widener. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-01-21 |
Twins v. Cardinals -152 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (928) versus the Minnesota Twins (927) listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Michael Pineda. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (52-52) has lost two of their last three games after their 8-1 loss to the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (44-61) has lost five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has bounced back to win 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. Additionally, the Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. St. Louis has won 9 of their last 12 games at home even after last night. They give the ball to Wainwright who is 8-6 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in 12 starts. St. Louis has won 5 of their last 7 home games with Wainwright pitching as a money-line favorite priced from -125 to -175. He should have more success against this Twins team that has lost 8 of their last 10 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they are without Josh Donaldson today with a hamstring injury. Minnesota has lost 5 straight games after a win. The Twins have also lost 5 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Minnesota has lost 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have lost 17 of their last 23 road games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Pineda who is 4-5 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The right-hander has a 3.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in ten starts — but in just four starts on the road, he has a 4.42 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260. His teams have lost 17 of their last 25 road games with Pineda pitching with the Total set at 8 to 8.5.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has won 6 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (928) versus the Minnesota Twins (927) listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Michael Pineda. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-31-21 |
Rockies v. Padres -1.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (60-46) has lost two of their last three games after their 9-4 loss to the Rockies last night. Colorado (45-59) had lost five of their last six games before the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego has bounced back to win 7 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an NL West rival. The Padres have won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least nine runs in their last contest. They have still won 27 of their last 38 games at home in Petco Park. They give the ball to Darvish who is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he owns a 2.79 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 12 starts. San Diego has won 10 of their last 11 home games with Darvish pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Rockies team that scores only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .213 batting average, .280 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .609. Colorado has lost 41 of their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost their last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rockies have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. Furthermore, Colorado has lost 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. They counter with Marquez who is 8-8 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts. The ground-ball-inducing right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in 8 starts as compared to his 3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .206 opponent’s batting average at home. The Rockies have lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Marquez pitching as a money-line underdog. Colorado has lost 40 of their last 52 games on the road — and they have lost 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 7 or lower. Marquez faces a Padres team that scores 4.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 18 of their last 26 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 26 of their 31 home games where they won the game priced as a money-line favorite priced at -155 or higher. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show Run-Line Bailout with San Diego Padres (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-30-21 |
Phillies v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
0-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (51-51) begins this series coming off an 11-8 victory against Washington yesterday. Pittsburgh (38-63) has lost four games in a row after a 12-0 loss to Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs in the opening game of a new series. They send out Velasquez who is 3-5 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 16 starts (20 games). The right-hander particularly struggles on the road where he has a 6.17 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 35 innings. The Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Velasquez pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Philadelphia has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total when favored. Velasquez faces a Pirates team that has played 7 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 18-7-2 in the Pirates’ last 27 games after a loss. Furthermore, the Over is 5-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 games at home. They counter with Crowe who is 2-5 with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 14 starts (15 games). The right-hander sees his WHIP rise to a 1.66 mark in his seven starts at home due in part to an opponent’s batting average of .281. His teams have played 7 straight Overs when Crowe is making a starting in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting better as of late — they have a .259 Batting Average with a .337 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .810 in their last seven games. The Phillies have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-29-21 |
Rockies v. Padres -1.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: San Diego (59-45) has lost three of their last four games after their 10-4 loss to Oakland yesterday. Colorado (44-58) has lost four of their last five games after their 8-7 loss at Los Angeles against the Angels yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego has won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six or more runs — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Padres have still won 26 of their last 36 games at home. They give the ball to Musgrove who is 6-7 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 19 starts (20 games). The left-hander sees his ERA drop to a 2.83 mark in his ten starts at home in Petco Park. San Diego has won 5 of their 7 games at home this season with Musgrove pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He should thrive against this Rockies team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game away from Coors Field with a .210 Batting Average, .278 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .601. Colorado has lost 28 of their last 33 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rockies have also lost 13 of their last 15 games after a loss by just one run — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Colorado has played three straight Overs — but they have lost 20 of their last 25 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They give the ball to Freeland who has a 1-5 record along with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 11 starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 5.10 mark in his six starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 18 of their last 22 games with Freeland pitching as a road dog.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their last 9 victories when priced higher than -150 — and Colorado has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 6 of their last 8 losses when priced as an underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the San Diego Padres (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-28-21 |
Braves v. Mets -125 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (906) versus the Atlanta Braves (905) listing both starting pitchers Tylor Megill and Max Fried. THE SITUATION: New York (53-46) has lost two of their last three games after their 12-5 loss to the Braves last night. Atlanta (50-51) has won two of their last three contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has bounced back to win 4 straight games after a loss. The Mets have also won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They have still won 25 of their last 37 games at home — and they have won 20 of their last 28 home games when favored. They give the ball to Megill who has a 1-0 record with a 2.10 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in six starts this season. He has pitched four of his games at home where he boasts a 1.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .164. He faces a Braves team without Ronald Acuna the rest of the season that scores only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .229 Batting Average, .307 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .704. Atlanta lost 6 straight games after a victory. The Braves have also lost 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. They counter with Max Fried who has a 7-6 record along with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 16 starts. The left-hander has pitched better at home where he owns a 3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 6.55 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .333 in his seven starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 8 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss at home of at least six runs. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Mets (906) versus the Atlanta Braves (905) listing both starting pitchers Tylor Megill and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-27-21 |
Yankees v. Rays -134 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-134 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Shane McClanahan and Jordan Montgomery. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (60-40) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 3-2 loss in Cleveland against the Indians. New York (51-47) has lost three of their last four games after a 5-4 loss in Boston.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after an off-day. The Rays return home where they have won 40 of their last 55 games at home against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to McClanahan who has a 4-3 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 14 starts. The sabermetrics call for continued improvement with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.56 and 3.52 moving forward. The left-hander has a 2.00 ERA in his last two starts at home. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 7 home games with McClanahan with him pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Yankees team that has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 road games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Montgomery who has a 3-5 record with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 19 starts. The left-hander pitches much better at home where he has a 3.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in nine starts — but those numbers worsen in his 10 starts on the road with a 4.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252. New York has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Montgomery pitching as an underdog. He faces a Rays team that has won 4 of their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 12 of their last 17 opportunities to host the Yankees. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Shane McClanahan and Jordan Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-21 |
Rockies v. Angels -145 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (918) versus the Colorado Rockies (917) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-49) has won three of their last four games after their 6-2 victory at Minnesota yesterday. Colorado (43-56) has lost two straight games after a 3-2 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They return home for the first time since July 18th after playing their last six games on the road. The Angels have won 4 of their last 5 home games after being on the road for at least a week. LA has won 17 of their last 25 games at home. Ohtani gets the nod tonight looking to build on his 4-1 record along with his 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts. He has 1.87 ERA in eight starts at home. The Angels have won 9 of their last 14 home games with Ohtani on the mound in his career. He faces a Rockies team that has lost 27 of their last 32 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 24 of their last 21 games on the road after a loss — and they have lost 12 of their last 14 games after a loss by just one run. They stay on the road where they have lost 41 of their last 53 games. They have also lost 40 of their last 51 road games as an underdog. They counter with German Marquez who is 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 20 starts. The left-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 13 starts. Those numbers rise to a 3.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in seven road starts. Colorado has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Marquez on the mound. He faces an Angels team that is scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .272 batting average, .330 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .810.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockies have lost 13 of their last 19 games as a money-line underdog — and Los Angeles has won 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record. 10* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (918) versus the Colorado Rockies (917) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-21 |
Tigers v. Twins -1.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Matt Manning. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (42-58) has lost two games in a row after their 6-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Detroit (47-54) has lost three straight games after a 6-1 loss in Kansas City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: It has been a disappointing season for Minnesota — but they have been playing better at home as of late. The Twins have won 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with losing records. Minnesota has also won 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They give the ball to Pineda who is 4-5 this season with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in nine starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in four starts on the road. Pineda’s teams have won 16 of their last 20 games when he is attempting to stop a losing streak. Detroit has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Tigers have lost 10 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. And Detroit has lost 19 of their last 28 games this season after losing three of their last four games. The Tigers were riding a seven-game winning streak before getting swept in their three-game series in Kansas City over the weekend. But all those seven games were at home — Detroit has lost 7 straight games on the road all by more than one run. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They counter with Matt Manning who is 2-3 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in six starts. The right-hander has a bright future — but he is struggling at the major league level in his rookie season. His ERA skyrockets to an 8.56 mark in his three starts on the road. The Tigers have lost all 3 road games that Manning has started this season. He faces a Twins team scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and Minnesota has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is looking to avenge a 7-0 loss in Detroit last Sunday that completed their getting swept by the Tigers in Comerica Park. The Twins have won 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from getting shutout in a loss. With Minnesota priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment cost by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. The Twins have been priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher twenty times this season — and only three times did they win by just one run. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Minnesota Twins (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Matt Manning. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-21 |
Reds v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (905) and the Chicago Cubs (906) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (51-48) begins this series coming off a 10-6 loss to St. Louis yesterday. Chicago (49-51) has won two of their last three games after a 5-1 win against Arizona on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Miley who has an 8-4 record with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.52 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in eight starts as compared to his more modest 2.91 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .266 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home in the Great American Ballpark. His teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when he is pitching on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He should thrive against this Cubs team that is scoring only 4.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average, .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661. The Under is also 25-12-2 in the Cubs’ last 39 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win. Additionally, the Cubs have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs. The Under is also 9-2-1 in Chicago’s last 12 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Hendricks who has a 12-4 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 20 starts this season. After a slow start where he was saddled with a 7.54 ERA, he has since settled in with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in his last 15 starts. In his last four starts at home at Wrigley Field, Hendricks has a 1.48 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The Cubs have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Hendricks on the hill. He faces a Reds team that scores 4.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .237 Batting Average, .321 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .675. Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing in Chicago — and these two teams have played their last 4 meetings Under the Total. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (905) and the Chicago Cubs (906) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-21 |
White Sox v. Brewers -148 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-148 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (980) versus the Chicago White Sox (979) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-41) has won five of their last seven games after their 6-1 victory against the White Sox last night. Chicago has lost three in a row including the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 26 of their last 33 games after a win — and they have won 23 of their last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers have also won 21 of their last 26 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 5 in a row against teams with a winning record. They send out Woodruff who is 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in 19 starts. Milwaukee has won 15 of their last 17 home games with Woodruff pitching at night. He should fare well against this White Sox team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .211 Batting Average, .276 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .675 in those games. Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have also lost 37 of their last 51 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 23 of their last 31 games on the road in Interleague play. Chicago has lost 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lance Lynn who is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 17 starts this season. While the right-hander has been almost unhittable at home with a 1.50 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .169 in 11 starts, those numbers rise to a 2.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in six starts on the road. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.82 and 3.97 moving forward this season. And while he has not allowed more than one earned run in four straight starts, his teams have lost 10 of their last 12 games when Lynn is pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in two straight starts.
FINAL TAKE: The Brewers are swinging hot bats as they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .271 batting average, .350 On-Baser Percentage, and an OPS of .779. Milwaukee has won 16 of their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (980) versus the Chicago White Sox (979) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-24-21 |
Cardinals v. Reds -1.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
112 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Reds (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jake Woodford. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (50-47) has won two of their last three games after their 6-5 victory over the Cardinals yesterday. St. Louis (49-49) had won five of their last six games before their loss last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Cincinnati has won 13 of their last 16 games at home — and they have won 24 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They send out Castillo who is 3-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The sabermetrics have been calling for regression after a disastrous start to the season. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 moving forward. Over his last seven starts, Castillo has a 1.41 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 44 2/3 innings. He has struck out 44 batters over that span. He should continue to pitch well against this Cardinals team that scores only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .220 Batting Average, .285 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .669. St. Louis has lost 12 of their last 15 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis has lost 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also lost 15 of their last 20 games on the road. They counter with Woodford making his third career start tonight. The right-hander has a 2-1 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 31 innings this season. His ERA rises to a 4.76 ERA in his 17 innings on the road. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.63 and 5.00 respectively moving forward.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .257 Batting Average, .331 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .779. The Reds have won 17 of their last 25 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. With Cincinnati priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Cincinnati Reds (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jake Woodford. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-23-21 |
Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
9-6 |
Loss |
-136 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Chi Chi Gonzalez. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (59-39) has lost four of their last five games after their 5-3 loss at home to San Francisco last night. Colorado (42-59) has won two of their last three games with their 6-3 win against Seattle on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won a decisive 44 of their last 64 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have won 60 of their last 79 games at home with the total set in the 9-10.5 range — and they have won all 10 games this season when the Total is at 9 or 9.5. They send out Price who has a 4-0 record with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings out of the bullpen and some spot starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.16 ERA in 16 2/3 innings. He should have success tonight against this Rockies team that is scoring only 2.8 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .205 Batting Average, .274 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .588. The Rockies have lost 11 of their last 15 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Rockies have also lost 6 straight games after an off-day. They have lost 41 of their last 52 road games as an underdog. They counter with Gonzalez who is 3-6 with a 5.99 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 85 2/3 innings this season. The right-hander has done his worst pitching on the road where he has a 6.66 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 42 innings. Colorado has lost 13 of their last 16 road games with Gonzalez pitching as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are without Mookie Betts tonight who is out with a hip injury — but they are still scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last five games. LA is priced way above my -150 price threshold — but the -1.5 Run-Line option is still below that ceiling. 10* MLB Friday Later Show Run-Line Bailout with the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Chi Chi Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-23-21 |
Pirates v. Giants -1.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Chad Kuhl. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (61-35) has won three of their last four games with their 5-3 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Dodgers last night. Pittsburgh (36-60) has lost four games in a row after a 6-4 loss at Arizona on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco was a +155 money-line underdog last night with their upset win against the Dodgers. The Giants have won 7 of their last 9 games after pulling off an upset victory against a divisional rival priced at +130 or higher. San Francisco has also won 15 of their last 20 games after a win — and they have won 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They return home where they have won 38 of their last 55 games — and they have won 30 of their last 43 home games with the total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Cueto who is 6-5 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has done his better pitching at home where he has a 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in eight starts as compared to his 5.09 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .321. The Giants have won 7 of their last 9 home games with Cueto pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He should pitch well against this Pirates team that scores only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 Batting Average, .293 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .652. Pittsburgh has lost 30 of their last 36 games after losing at least four games in a row. Additionally, the Pirates have lost 63 of their last 85 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Kuhl who has a 3-5 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetrics suggest those numbers are fortunate since both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.46 and 5.33 moving forward. The right-hander pitches better at home where he owns a 2.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in five starts — but his ERA rises to a 6.07 mark along with a 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 7 starts on the road. The Pirates have lost 20 of their last 25 road games with Kuhl pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is scoring 5.2 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .254 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .787. The Giants have won 22 of their last 30 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. With the price above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price with the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with San Francisco Giants (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Chad Kuhl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-21 |
Cubs v. Cardinals -122 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (906) versus the Chicago Cubs (905) listing both starting pitchers Kwang Hyun Kim and Adbert Alzolay. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (48-48) has won four of their last five games with their 3-2 victory in extra innings against the Cubs last night. Chicago (47-49) has lost three games in a row and 16 of their last 21 contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has won 8 of their last 13 games after a win by just one run — and they have won 4 of their last 5 gamers after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Kwang Hyun Kim who is 5-5 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 16 starts. He has allowed only one earned run in his four starts with a 0.38 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP spanning 24 innings of work. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.77 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222. St. Louis has won 9 of their last 11 games with Kim making the start in the second half of the season. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .217 batting average, .267 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .616 during that span. Chicago has lost 7 of their last 8 road games against left-hand starting pitchers. The Cubs have also lost 14 of their last 18 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They have lost 12 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Alzolay who is 4-9 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 16 starts. While the right-hander has a 4.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .205 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home, those numbers rise to a 4.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in eight starts on the road. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Alzolay pitching priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a Cardinals team that has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have lost 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (906) versus the Chicago Cubs (905) listing both starting pitchers Kwang Hyun Kim and Adbert Alzolay. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-21-21 |
Twins v. White Sox -149 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-149 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Michael Pineda. THE SITUATION: Chicago (58-37) has won four of their last five games with their 9-5 win against the Twins last night. Minnesota (40-55) has lost five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago rallied from a 5-4 deficit in the bottom of the eighth inning to win last night’s game. The White Sox should build off that momentum as they have won 10 of their last 13 games after a loss. Additionally, Chicago has won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 23 of their last 34 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have won a decisive 47 of their last 63 home games when favored — and they have won 21 of their last 29 home games played at night. They give the ball to Cease who is 7-5 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 19 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.74 and 3.92 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at night where he owns a 2.15 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .199 in nine starts. The White Sox have won 7 of their last 8 games at home with Cease pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Twins team that is scoring 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 Batting Average, .309 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .700. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have lost 12 of their last 13 games after a game where their bullpen surrendered at least five runs. Minnesota has also lost 8 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 17 of their last 25 games after losing at least four of their last five contests. Additionally, the Twins have lost 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with Pineda who is 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.26 and 4.29 moving forward. The Regression Gods may have already appeared since he has been saddled with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in his last four starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in three starts. He pitches for the first time since July 7th — and his teams have lost 10 of their last 14 games when he is pitching with at least seven days between starts. The Twins have lost 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have lost 24 of their last 33 road games as an underdog. Minnesota has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games in Chicago against the White Sox.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .800 OPS over that span. The White Sox have won 8 of their last 10 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Michael Pineda. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-21 |
Rangers v. Tigers OVER 8.5 |
|
0-14 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (969) and the Detroit Tigers (970) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Casey Mize. THE SITUATION: Texas (35-58) has lost five straight games after their 10-0 loss at Toronto yesterday. Detroit (43-51) has won three in a row after a 7-0 victory against Minnesota yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Texas has also played 13 of their last 16 opening games to a new series Over the Total. They give the ball to Gibson who is 6-1 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 4.16 and 3.89 moving forward this season. And while the right-hander has thrived at home where he has a 1.77 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .201, those numbers rise to a 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .222 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. Gibson’s teams have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total on the road with him making the start. The Over is 11-3-1 in the Rangers’ last 15 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Tigers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And while Detroit has not allowed more than four runs in three straight games, they have then played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. They counter with Casey Mize who is 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The sabermetrics call for regression with this right-hander as well. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.29 and 4.21 respectively moving forward. Mize has not been as effective at home either where he has a 4.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in 7 starts. Detroit has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9-10.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 5-2-1 in the Rangers’ last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (969) and the Detroit Tigers (970) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Casey Mize. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-18-21 |
Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 |
Top |
1-9 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-37) has lost five of their last seven games after a 3-1 loss to the Yankees in a rain-shortened six-inning game yesterday. New York (47-44) has won six of its last nine contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, Boston has played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 6 games on the road. Martin Perez makes the start with his 7-5 record along with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander struggles at home at Fenway Park with the Green Monster where he has a 5.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .326. But when Perez pitches on the road, he has a 2.04 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in 7 starts. His teams have played 9 straight Unders when he is pitching on the road priced in the +125 to -125 price range. He faces a depleted Yankees’ lineup hit by COVID that has Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela — and Luke Voit hit the disabled list earlier this week with a knee injury. New York is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .204 batting average, .287 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .627. New York has played two straight Unders — and they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Yankees bullpen got yesterday off with Gerrit Cole pitching all six innings — and they pitched only three innings on Friday. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when their bullpen has not pitched more than three innings in two straight games. They counter with Taillon who is 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been much better at home in Yankee Stadium where he has a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .223 opponent’s batting average in 10 starts as opposed to his 7.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .298 opponent’s batting average on the road. His teams have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when he is pitching as a favorite priced up to -150. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .238 batting average, .308 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .731. Boston has managed only five hits in each of their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not generating more than five base hits in two straight games. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has played 5 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams from the AL East — and the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Yankee Stadium. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-16-21 |
Cubs -145 v. Diamondbacks |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (915) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (916) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: Chicago (44-46) lost two of their last three games of the All-Star Break after a 6-0 loss to St. Louis last Sunday. Arizona (26-66) lost three of their last four games heading into the break coming off a 7-4 loss at Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. They begin the second half of the season on the road where they have won 4 of their last 5 games when favored. The Cubs have won 19 of their last 28 games when favored, in general — and they have won 4 straight games against opponents that are not winning more than 40% of their games. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 11-4 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander struggled in April where he was 1-3 with a 7.54 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP — but he has been lights out since. Since the beginning of May, Hendricks has a 2.73 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 82 1/3 innings of work while issuing just 12 bases on balls. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.62 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eight starts. The Cubs have won 4 straight road games with Hendricks pitching as a favorite. He should thrive against a Diamondbacks team that has scored only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .221 batting average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .645 during that span. Arizona has lost 18 of their last 23 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks have lost 5 of their last 6 games after an off-day. Arizona has also lost 13 of their last 17 opening games to a new series. The Diamondbacks have lost 20 of their last 26 games at home. They counter with Bumgarner who is returning to action after being on the disabled list since the beginning of June. The left-hander is 4-5 this season with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. I worry about his return to action after shoulder issues. I also am concerned about how effective he will be without the use of foreign substances. Bumgarner has struggled for a year and a half before suddenly seeing a significant bump in his spin rate which helped him earn that seven-inning no-hitter in May. As it is, he has struggled at home where he has a 7.15 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .301 in five starts. His teams have lost 7 of their last 9 home games with Bumgardner pitching as a money-line underdog priced at +125 to +175. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .276 batting average, .327 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .734 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 48 of their last 54 games as a money-line underdog. With the Cubs priced at or below my -150 price threshold, let’s attack. 25* MLB National League Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (915) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (916) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-21 |
American League v. National League -112 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-112 |
14 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the National League (949) versus the American League (950) in the All-Star Game. THE SITUATION: The National League is the home team this season with this game taking place at Coors Field, the home of the Colorado Rockies. The American League has won seven straight midsummer classics after beating the NL by a 4-3 score in 2019. The All-Star Game got canceled last year because of COVID.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The American League got hit pretty hard with opt-outs. Mike Trout was already out with an injury. Then they lost four players from the Houston Astros with nagging injuries to Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Michael Brantley compelling them to opt-out — and closer Ryan Pressly is on paternity league. Manager Kevin Cash will also not have the services of starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Yusei Kikuchi — Bieber is injured and Kikuchi just got removed from the COVID quarantine list so he can travel to Denver but he will not pitch. I think the NL has a significant edge in pitching. Shohei Ohtani is the AL’s starting pitcher. While he has a 1.87 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in eight starts at home, his ERA blows up to a 6.46 mark with a 1.27 WHIP in five starts on the road. He exerted a bunch of energy in the Home Run Derby on Monday night — and he has loads of pressure on him as the star attraction of this All-Star Game. Carlos Rodon probably deserves the starting assignment — but his best pitching was in April when he posted a 0.72 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in four starts. In his last three starts consisting of 16 innings, Rodon has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Lance Lynn could have gotten the starting nod as well — but while he has a 1.53 ERA and 0.85 WHIP at home, those marks rise to a 2.84 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road. Kyle Gibson has a 1.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home but a 2.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road. Nathan Eovaldi has a 3.94 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP on the road. Chris Bassitt has a 3.88 ERA on the road. Gerrit Cole has struggled over the last month with a significant reduction in his spin rate after the MLB crackdown on the use of foreign substances (although he was great in his last start in Houston on Saturday). The closers are shaky as well. Matt Barnes started on fire but has come back down to earth for the Red Sox. Gregory Soto is just OK for the Tigers. Aroldis Chapman is experiencing a big slump over the last month. The National League is missing key players to injury like Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna, and Jacob DeGrom — but their pitching staff is still in better shape (and they have capable replacements for Betts and Acuna like Manny Machado who was just added to the roster). Kevin Gausman and Brandon Woodruff are off the roster after pitching on Sunday — but Max Scherzer was a late addition who is enjoying a strong enough season where he will be starting in his fourth All-Star Game. Walker Buehler is a late addition — the Dodger hurler is a 2.44 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in seven starts on the road. Freddy Peralta is a late addition with his 2.88 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in eight road starts. Taijuan Walker is a solid late addition with his 2.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The core starting pitchers from the original roster include Zack Wheeler who has a 2.84 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight road starts. Corbin Burnes has a 1.98 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in six starts on the road. German Marquez pitches in his home stadium where he has a 3.06 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 12 home starts at Coors Field. I like the NL group of relievers as well with Craig Kimberly and Josh Hader elite and Mark Melancon, Alex Reyes, and Trevor Rogers all having good seasons.
FINAL TAKE: The National League has an inherent advantage by batting last as the home team. And while the motivation to win this game has returned to being only about pride and professionalism with home field in the World Series determined by regular-season record, the NL is likely fed up with their seven-game losing streak in the Midsummer Classic. 10* MLB All-Star Game Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the National League (949) versus the American League (950). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-11-21 |
Nationals v. Giants -1.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
109 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (909) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Erick Fedde. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (56-32) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight after their 10-4 win against the Nationals yesterday. Washington (42-46) has lost three straight games and eight of their last ten.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco should build off their momentum to close out the first half of the regular season before the All-Star Break. They have won 12 of their last 15 games after a win — and they have won 20 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Giants have won 37 of their last 51 home games when favored. They give the ball to Gausman who has an 8-3 record with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has a microscopic 0.60 WHIP in six home starts fueled by an opponent’s batting average of .124. San Francisco has won 7 of their last 9 games with Gausman pitching in a day game. He should fare well against this Nationals team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Fedde who is 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 4.65 mark in his six starts on the road. The Nationals have lost 6 of their last 9 games with Fedde pitching with the Total set from 7 to 8.5. He will likely struggle against a Giants team that has won 21 of their last 29 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .280 batting average, .364 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .825. Washington has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has not lost by a run in sixteen straight games when a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher. San Francisco has won by only one run in four of their last seventeen games when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. If we like the Giants in this game (and we do), then let’s lower the investment price. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Run-Line of the Year with San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (909) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Erick Fedde. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-10-21 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
1-22 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Caleb Smith. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (54-35) has lost four of their last five games after losing to the Diamondbacks by a 5-2 score in the opening game of this series. Arizona (26-64) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 42 of their last 60 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also won 40 of their last 51 games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. They send out Buehler who is 8-1 with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 17 starts. Buehler has been an effective stopper for the team as they have won 19 of their last 25 games with him mound looking to stop a losing streak. The Dodgers have also won 31 of their last 45 games with Buehler pitching as a home favorite. Break up Arizona! Their three wins in their last four games match the three wins they picked up in their previous 31 games. The Diamondbacks have lost 8 of their last 9 games after a win — and they have lost 4 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Arizona has also lost 20 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with Smith who is 2-5 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 70 1/3 innings. The deeper metrics are not as bullish on Smith who both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.28 and 4.84 moving forward. The Diamondbacks have lost 9 of their last 12 games with Smith pitching with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. Arizona has lost 46 of their last 52 games as an underdog — and they have lost 56 of their last 74 road games as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers priced in the -300 range, they are well beyond my -150 price threshold. LA has been priced above -150 58 times this season. They have lost 21 of these games straight-up. But while they have won 37 of those games, 29 of those victories were by more than one run. So, if the Dodgers are going to win, they are going to win by more than one run — a 78.3% clip — at a much lower price. Arizona has been a money line underdog priced at +145 or higher 39 times — and they have lost by more than one run in 24 of those occasions for a 61.5% clip. They pulled the upset six times and lost by one run another nine times. Let’s bank on Buehler. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break NL West Run-Line of the Year with Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Caleb Smith. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-10-21 |
Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-104 |
6 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: New York (95-42) won the opening game of this series last night with a 4-0 victory. Houston has a two-game losing streak after winning their previous six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. New York has also won 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total on the road after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, New York has won 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Cole gets the start with his 8-4 record along with a 2.91 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 17 starts. But the right-hander has struggled since MLB cracked down on the use of illegal substances. Cole’s spin rate is way down — and so are his numbers. In his last six starts since the start of June, Cole has a 5.00 ERA with only 38 strikeouts in 36 innings of work. And his teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when he is pitching in July. Houston has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Astros score 5.5 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average, a .386 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .813. Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Astros have played three straight Unders, they have played 6 straight Overs after playing at least three straight Unders. Houston has played 25 of their last 35 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Greinke who is 8-2 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home in Minute Maid Park where he has been saddled with a 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .296 opponent’s batting average. The Astros have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Greinke on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with Greinke pitching at night. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-09-21 |
Nationals v. Giants -146 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (910) versus the Washington Nationals (909) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Paolo Espino. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (54-32) has won four of their last six games after their 5-2 win against St. Louis on Wednesday. Washington (42-44) has lost six of their last eight games after a 9-8 loss in San Diego last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco had lost two straight games before their win on Wednesday. The Giants have won 16 of their last 20 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, San Francisco has won 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Giants host this series where they have won 35 of their last 52 games at home — and they have won 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They give the ball to Webb who is coming off the disabled list after being on the shelf since the end of May with a right shoulder strain. The right-hander has a 4-3 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in ten games (nine starts). Four of appearances (three starts) have been at home where Webb has a 1.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212. The Giants have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Webb pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. Washington has lost 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Espino who is 2-2 with a 2.48 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 40 innings. Espino has mostly pitched out of the bullpen — this will be his fifth start of the season. His ERA rises to a 3.65 mark in his 12 1/3 innings on the road. He faces a San Francisco team that has won 27 of their last 39 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has lost 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. 10* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (910) versus the Washington Nationals (909) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Paolo Espino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-09-21 |
Pirates v. Mets -1.5 |
|
4-13 |
Win
|
105 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Mets (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and J.T. Brubaker. THE SITUATION: New York (45-38) had won four of their last five games before their 5-0 loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (32-54) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 14-3 loss to Atlanta.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 13 of their last 21 games after being shut out in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 20 of their last 28 games — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games when favored at a -200 or higher price. Additionally, the Mets have won 23 of their last 32 games when favored — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning no more than 40% of their games. They give the ball to Walker who is 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .171 in seven starts as compared to his 3.30 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .213 opponent’s batting average on the road. New York has won 10 straight home games when priced as a -110 or higher favorite with Walker on the hill. He faces a Pirates team that is hitting only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .224 batting average, .262 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .624. Pittsburgh has lost 9 of their last 12 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by six or more runs. They have also lost 11 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. They counter with Brubaker who is 4-8 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander struggles on the road with a 4.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .253 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. The Pirates have lost 10 of their last 11 road games with Brubaker pitching as an underdog. The Mets have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has lost 40 of their last 55 games as an underdog. Since the Mets are priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price by taking New York minus the Run-Line. 10* MLB Run-Line Rout with the New York Mets (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and J.T. Brubaker. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 |
Top |
12-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (977) listing both starting pitchers Justus Sheffield and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Seattle (45-40) has won four of their last five games after their 4-1 win against the Rangers on Sunday. New York (42-41) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-2 victory at home against the Mets on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle has won 11 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. The Mariners have won 7 of their last 9 games at home —and they have pulled an upset in 10 of their last 14 home games as an underdog. Seattle has won 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They send out Sheffield who is 5-7 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. While those numbers are not great — the Mariners have won 12 of their last 17 home games with Sheffield on the mound. He faces a Yankees team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 5 of their last 7 games played after an off-day — and they have lost 5 openers to a new series. The Yankees have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. They counter with Taillon who is 3-4 with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home in Yankee Stadium where he has a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223. But his five starts on the road, he has been hammered for an ERA of 11.12, a 2.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .385. The Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Taillon on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Taking the Mariners as a money-line underdog is a viable option, but I prefer taking the valuable +1.5 Run-Line since it is priced at below my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Tuesday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with Seattle Mariners (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (977) listing both starting pitchers Justus Sheffield and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-05-21 |
White Sox v. Twins OVER 10 |
|
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (913) and the Minnesota Twins (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Bailey Ober. THE SITUATION: Chicago (49-34) has lost two games in a row after their 6-5 loss at Detroit yesterday. Minnesota (34-48) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 6-2 win at Kansas City yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Over the Total when favored. They give the ball to Cease who is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander thrives at home where he has a 1.81 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 6.08 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and a .270 opponent’s batting average in his eight starts on the road. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Cease on the hill. He faces a Twins team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by four or more runs. The Over is also 19-7-3 in the Twins’ last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and the Over is 20-5-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Bailey Ober pitches for Minnesota tonight — he is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in six starts. He has a 6.75 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .316 in his three starts at home. The Over is 20-8-2 in the Twins’ last 30 home games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total as an underdog. The White Sox have played 6 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has won the last four meetings between these two teams — and the Twins have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing with revenge against a team that has beaten them at least four times in a row. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (913) and the Minnesota Twins (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Bailey Ober. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-04-21 |
Mets v. Yankees OVER 7 |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-121 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers Corey Oswalt and Nestor Cortes. THE SITUATION: The Mets (43-36) won the opening game of today’s doubleheader by a 10-5 score. The Yankees (41-41) have lost three in a row and seven of their last eight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is now 36-17-4 in the Mets’ last 57 road games against teams with a winning record. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the second game of a doubleheader. They will use Corey Oswalt as their starting pitcher after he had a 4.85 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 13 innings last year. The right-hander has made two appearances this season with a 1.42 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He likely will not pitch more than one time around the Yankees’ order so the bullpen will be asked to pitch at least half this game. The Mets’ bullpen has a 5.06 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP when pitching on the road — and in their last seven games, they have posted a 6.48 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. The Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 second games of a doubleheader. The Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games when favored. They counter with Nestor Cortes who has a 1.02 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings this season. This will be his third career start. While the left-hander is pitching well, both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.97 and 3.09 moving forward. He is not like to pitch more than two or three innings either. The Yankees’ bullpen entered the day with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in the last seven days — and that was before they gave up six runs in the top of the seventh (and final) inning in Game One.
FINAL TAKE: It was Aroldis Chapman who blew the save earlier today as he entered the 7th inning with a 5-4 lead. Manager Aaron Boone is unlikely to call on him for the nightcap. The Mets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB NY Mets-NY Yankees ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers Corey Oswalt and Nestor Cortes. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-21 |
Twins v. Royals OVER 10 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (971) and the Kansas City Royals (972) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Brad Keller. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (33-48) has lost five games in a row after dropping Game Two of this series yesterday by a 6-3 score. Kansas City (35-47) has won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 20-8-1 in the Twins’ last 29 games after a loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total after losing at least two in a row. The Over is also 22-8-2 in Minnesota’s last 32 games on the road — and the Over is 22-9-4 in the Twins’ last 36 games when favored. They sen out Maeda who is 3-3 with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has struggled on the road with a 6.28 ERA in nine starts — and Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with Maeda on the hill. He faces a Royals team that is scoring 4.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .267 batting average, .326 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .758 (near-Murderer’s Row numbers in this age of the new baseball in the Year of the Pitcher). The Over is 5-2-4 in Kansas City’s last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 7-3-1 in the Royals’ last 11 games after a win. The Over is also 7-3-1 in Kansas City’s last 11 games at home against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Over is 12-5-4 in the Royals’ last 21 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. The Over is also 5-2-4 in KC’s last 11 games as an underdog. They counter with Keller who is 6-8 with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The right-hander has been rocked with a 7.97 ERA in his eight starts at home — and the Royals have played 5 of those 8 home games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests. The Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers overall. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Twins’ last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (971) and the Kansas City Royals (972) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Brad Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-21 |
Orioles v. Angels OVER 9.5 |
|
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Keegan Akin and Griffin Canning. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (27-54) has won three games in a row with their 5-2 win at Houston yesterday. Los Angeles (39-41) has won three of their last four games with their 11-8 win in New York against the Yankees yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Baltimore stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the number in the 9-10.5 range. They send out Akin who is 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in 38 innings consisting of 10 appearances with six starts. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 7.94 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .301 in 22 2/3 innings. The Orioles have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Akin on the hill. He faces an Angels team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .271 batting average, .335 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .790. The Over is 21-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 27 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a win. The Over is also 39-16-2 in the Angels’ last 57 games at home — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total with the Total set from 9-10.5. They counter with Griffin Canning who is 5-4 with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 12 starts (13 games). Six of his games (five starts) have been at home where sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 5.19 and 1.50 marks. The Angels have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Canning pitching on five or six days rest. He faces an Orioles team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .266 batting average, .340 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .747. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 5-2-1 in the Orioles’ last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 10* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Keegan Akin and Griffin Canning. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (33-43) has lost five games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Texas yesterday. Boston (47-31) has won three in a row after their weekend sweep of the New York Yankees that culminated in a 9-2 victory yesterday afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox got their bats out yesterday with four home runs — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after banging our four or more home runs in their last game. Boston has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where they scored at least eight runs. And in their last 11 games after winning two games in a row at home against AL East foes, they have played 10 of these games Over the Total. But the reason why the Total for this game has been bet up to 11 is due to the trials that Garrett Richards is experiencing without the benefit of his usual substances that help him grip the baseball. Without the ability to use sunscreen — something that Richards says he has been using since his rookie year — he cannot get the grip on his curveball. Richards has abandoned even using what has been his best pitch — and that leaves him as an unusable pitcher when he is dependent on his below-average four-seam fastball. Richards has a 4-5 record this season with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 15 starts. In his last three starts since the MLB has cracked down on foreign substances like suntan lotion, Richards has an ugly 9.82 ERA and a 2.55 WHIP. Even without these new circumstances, Richards was a starting pitcher I was looking to fade. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.02 and 4.79 moving forward. And he has struggled at Fenway Park with a 6.46 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP along with a .333 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in June with Richards starting. The Red Sox have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home with the Total set at 11 or higher. Kansas City scores 4.4 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 5-1-2 in their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have not hit a home run in four straight games — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not hitting a home run in two straight games. And while Kansas City has scored one run in their last two games, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in two straight games. They counter with Danny Duffy who is 4-3 with a 1.81 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in eight starts (nine games). The veteran left-hander’s great start was interrupted by a left flexor strain that put him on the shelf for six weeks. He is being eased back into the rotation — so no more than 50 or 60 pitches from him are expected tonight. Even without taking into account his injury which may impact his effectiveness moving forward, his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.65 and 3.84. The Royals bullpen will be asked to pitch at least half this game — and that group has a 6.60 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP in the last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Boston scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .266 batting average, .320 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .756. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-21 |
Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (44-29) has lost the first two games of this series with their 3-2 loss on the road last night. San Diego (44-32) has won six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss to an NL West rival — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by just one run. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing two in a row. They give the ball to Bauer who is 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is the poster child for spin rate — and seems to have been negatively impacted with MLB’s crackdown on foreign substances that help pitchers get more spin on the baseball. In his last four starts, Bauer has a seen his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.46 and 1.27 marks. While those are still solid numbers, they are not elite — and he is facing a good Padres’ lineup that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .274 batting average, .357 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .932. The Over is 13-6-1 in San Diego’s last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Perhaps the spin rate issue with Bauer is overstated — and he is simply experiencing good ole fashioned regression? His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.44 and 3.73 for the right-hander moving forward. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning at least six in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total when favored. They counter Musgrove who is 4-6 with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 14 games (13 starts). The sabermetrics call for an ERA of 3.97 and 3.00 moving forward. The left-hander changed his approach this season with an increased reliance on his cutter and slider at the expense of his four-seamer and sinker. But hitters adapt once the book gets written on his new approach — and the Dodgers have already faced him once this season on April 25th. His teams have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with him pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He only struck out two batters in his last performance on June 17th — and his teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Musgrove pitching with five or six days of rest. The Dodgers may not have Mookie Betts in their lineup tonight as he deals with an illness — but they are averaging 5.8 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 27-11-2 in LA’s last 40 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when motivated by at least double-revenge. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-21 |
A's v. Rangers UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-8 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Oakland (44-29) has lost two straight games after their 2-1 loss in New York against the Yankees yesterday. Texas (25-46) has lost six in a row after their 4-2 loss to Minnesota yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. And while Oakland had been on a seven-game winning streak before dropping their last two, they have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The A’s stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They give the ball to Montas who is 7-6 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.13 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in four starts. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Montas pitching with a Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.91 moving forward. He faces a Rangers team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .226 batting average, .282 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .649. The Under is 4-1-1 in Texas’ last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers have seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Texas has also played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Gibson who is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 0.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a .191 opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Rangers have played 4 of their 6 home games Under the Total with Gibson on the hill this season.
FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 range. Oakland has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing at night. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-21 |
Brewers v. Rockies -114 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (914) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (913) listing both starting pitchers Austin Gomber and Adrian Houser. THE SITUATION: Colorado (30-41) has won four games in a row with their 6-5 win against the Brewers last night. Milwaukee (38-32) has lost five in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado has won 14 of their last 18 games at home after a win. They have also won 21 of their last 29 games at home at Coors Field — and they have won 6 straight home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gomber who is 6-5 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 14 starts. Gomber has been outstanding at home where he owns a 0.96 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and .140 opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Rockies have won 6 of their last 8 home games with Gombert on the mound. Milwaukee has lost 4 in a row after a loss. They have also lost 13 of their last 17 road games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They counter with Houser who is 4-5 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has not been as effective on the road where his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.77 and 1.42 marks. He has allowed two and one earned run in less than 6 innings of work in his last two starts — but the Brewers have lost 7 of their last 10 games when Houser has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last two starts.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee was a -180 road favorite yesterday with Corbin Burnes on the hill — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they were road favorites priced at -150 or higher. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (914) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (913) listing both starting pitchers Austin Gomber and Adrian Houser. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-21 |
Phillies v. Dodgers -141 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-141 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (964) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (963) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Wheeler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (41-26) has won three games in a row along with seven of their last eight after defeating the Phillies in the second game of this series last night by a 5-3 score. Philadelphia (32-33) had won four in a row before dropping the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 29 of their last 35 games after a win by more than one run in their last game. The Dodgers’ bullpen did not allow a run last night to the Phillies after Julio Urias allowed three runs in the first six innings — and they have won 18 of their last 26 games after not allowing an earned run in their last game. Los Angeles has also won 16 of their last 19 games after winning three of their last four games. They send out Kershaw tonight who is 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 14 starts. The veteran left-hander could be producing even better numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.07 and 2.98 moving forward. Kershaw has been outstanding at home where he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .196 in seven starts. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11 home games with Kershaw pitching with the Total set at 7-7.5. He faces a Phillies team that has lost 6 straight road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has not scored more than three runs in their last two games — and they have lost 9 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than three runs in two straight games. They have lost 21 of their 32 games on the road this season — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set at 7 or less. They counter with Wheeler who is 4-3 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in 13 starts. While the right-hander is enjoying a career year, the sabermetrics do call for some regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.85 and 2.69 moving forward. And while Wheeler has a 1.70 ERA with a 0.69 WHIP and a .165 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home, those numbers rise to a 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .246 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season with Wheeler having a 2.38 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in seven home starts but a 3.86 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in four road starts. It is telling that the Phillies have lost 9 of their last 14 road games with Wheeler on the hill as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has lost 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and the Dodgers have won 48 of their last 66 games at home. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (964) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (963) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Wheeler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Phillies v. Marlins -136 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-136 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (912) with the money-line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (911) listing both starting pitchers Pablo Lopez and Spencer Howard. THE SITUATION: Miami (24-25) has won four of their last five games after their 4-2 victory over the Phillies in the third game of this series. Philadelphia (24-26) has lost six of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami has won six of their last eight games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Lopez who has a 1-3 record with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 0.61 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .168. in five starts as compared to his 5.13 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .304 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 2.56 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and .222 opponent’s batting average in five starts at home but a 4.91 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .240 opponent’s batting average on the road. Miami has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won a decisive 52 of their last 77 home games when favored. Lopez should find success against this Phillies team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .191 batting average, a .270 opponent’s batting average, and an OPS of .584. Philadelphia has lost 20 of their last 28 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 4 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Philadelphia lineup is missing Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto to short-term injuries while Didi Gregorius is on the 60-day DL. Those are three bats that this team was relying on to be in the middle of their lineup. They counter with Howard who is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in four appearances this season. The prized prospect has yet to put forth consistent performances at the major league level. Last year, he had a 1-2 record with a 5.92 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings. Control remains an issue — he has waled six batters in his 7 1/3 innings this season. Howard faces a Marlins team averaging a healthy 4.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Phillies have lost 21 of their last 27 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They have also lost 14 of their last 17 road games in day games.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has won 8 of their last 10 games when favored. They have a big starting pitcher edge in this one. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the money-line on the Miami Marlins (912) with the money-line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (911) listing both starting pitchers Pablo Lopez and Spencer Howard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-23-21 |
Cubs v. Cardinals -124 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (962) versus the Chicago Cubs (961) listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Zach Davies. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (26-19) has won three of their last four games with their 2-1 victory against the Cubs in Game Two of this series. Chicago (23-22) had their two-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has won 13 of the last 17 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. And while they have only scored five runs in their last two games, they have then won 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than three runs in two straight games. They give the ball to Wainwright who is 2-4 with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.00 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 4.22 moving forward. St. Louis has won 16 of their last 25 games with Wainwright starting against an NL Central opponent. The Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 5 straight home games when favored. And in their last 7 home games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5, St. Louis has won 6 of those games Wainwright should have success against this Cubs team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .218 batting average, .296 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .660. The Cubs have lost 4 in a row after not scoring more than one run in a loss to an NL Central foe. Chicago has not allowed more than four runs in seven straight games — but they have lost 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. They counter with Davies who is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has gotten hit hard on the road where he has an 8.59 ERA with a 2.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .344 in four starts. The Cubs have lost all 3 games on the road this season with Davies pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The sabermetrics confirm how disappointing Davies has been this season with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.84 and 5.72. He is walking 11.5% of the batters he is facing this season — and striking out only 12% of his batters. That is not good, Bob. Chicago has lost 13 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. And in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record, the Cubs have lost 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have won 5 of their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (962) versus the Chicago Cubs (961) listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-14-21 |
Cubs v. Tigers +1.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Detroit Tigers (928) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (927) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Jake Arrieta. THE SITUATION: Detroit (13-24) has won four games in a row with their 4-3 victory over Kansas City yesterday. Chicago (17-19) has lost three in a row after their 2-1 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE+1.5 RUN-LINE: Detroit is playing better baseball as of late — they are scoring 5. Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .300 batting average, .380 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .781 during that span. The Tigers have won 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record. Detroit has also won a decisive 47 of their last 66 home games against losing teams from the National League. Tarik Skubal has an 0-5 record with a 5.67 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP in 27 innings — but he has pitched better when at home. In 16 innings this season, the left-hander has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 as compared to his 9.00 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261. Skubal had a 3.27 ERA with a 0.64 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 on two starts at home last season. Skubal has a fastball that approaches 99 Miles Per Hour which gives him front of the rotation potential. His last start was at home against Miami last Friday where he allowed two runs in five innings and eight strikeouts. Skubal generated 14 whiffs on his pitches included seven from his fastball. He faces a Cubs’ lineup that scores only 3.5 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 batting average, .300 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .682. Chicago has lost three in a row by just one run — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after losing three in a row by two runs or less. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after losing at least two in a row by one run. Additionally, the Cubs have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. They counter with Arrieta who is 3-3 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in six starts. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.53 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in three starts. He has not pitched April 30th after dealing with a left thumb abrasion. Arrieta’s skills are declining — he was 4-4 with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in nine starts last year. His velocity was down in April — so it looks like he has developed a clear ceiling. The Cubs have lost 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. The Cubbies have also lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road. Chicago has also lost 5 of their last 7 games in Interleague play.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams not winning at least 40% of their games — and Detroit has won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Chicago has won eight of their seventeen games this season by just one run — including in their last four victories and five of their last six wins. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Tigers (928) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (927) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Jake Arrieta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-05-21 |
Blue Jays v. A's -130 |
|
9-4 |
Loss |
-130 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (978) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (977) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Robbie Ray. THE SITUATION: Oakland (19-12) has won three games in a row after winning the second game of this series yesterday by a 4-1 score. Toronto (14-14) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has won 14 of their last 17 games after a win — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Bassitt who is 2-2 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in six starts this season. The right-hander was 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 11 starts in the shortened season last year — and he enjoyed a 0.72 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in six home starts. The A’s have won 13 of their last 17 home games with Bassitt pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should fare well against this Toronto team that is scoring only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .209 batting average, .263 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .591. The Blue Jays have lost 7 of their last 10 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has also lost 4 of their last 5 games after losing the first two games of a series. They counter with Robbie Ray who is 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in four starts. The left-hander has not issued a walk in two straight starts after walking nine batters in 10 innings in his first two starts. Ray led the National League in bases-on-balls last season. He was 2-5 with a 6.62 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP in 51 2/3 innings between Arizona and Toronto. He was a disaster on the road with an 8.63 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, and .324 opponent’s batting average in 24 innings. His teams have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Ray pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. The Blue Jays have lost 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 road games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. Ray faces an A’s team that has won a decisive 48 of their last 63 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has won 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the money-line on the Oakland A’s (978) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (977) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Robbie Ray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-21 |
Mets v. Phillies -114 |
|
8-7 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (914) versus the New York Mets (913) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and David Peterson. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (13-14) looks to bounce-back from their 5-4 loss in the second game of this weekend series. New York (10-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has rebounded to win 5 straight games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Phillies have also won 22 of their last 32 games at home — and they have won 14 of their last 18 home games when favored. They give the ball to Eflin who is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.80 ERA along with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in three stars as compared to his 6.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .302 opponent’s batting average in three road starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Eflin had a 3.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .252 opponent’s batting average in 35 innings at home but a 5.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .280 opponent’s batting average in 24 innings on the road. The Phillies have won 11 of their last 15 home games with Eflin as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a Mets team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 4 straight games after a win. The Mets have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 38 of their last 53 road games as an underdog. They counter with Peterson who is 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in four starts. The left-hander has a 2.25 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of 171 in two starts — but those numbers skyrocket to an 11.05 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and a .344 opponent’s batting average in two road starts. The Mets have lost 4 of their last 6 road games with Peterson on the mound. He faces a Mets team that has won 5 of their last 6 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: New York has lost 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog — and Philadelphia has won 15 of their last 22 home games against teams with a losing record. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (914) versus the New York Mets (913) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and David Peterson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-21 |
Indians v. White Sox -1.5 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (919) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Zach Plesac. THE SITUATION: Chicago (15-11) has won three of their last four games after their 7-3 win in Game Two of this series. Cleveland (12-13) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago is warming up with seven victories in their last nine games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three of their last four games. And while the White Sox had only four hits yesterday, they have then won 15 of their last 21 games after failing to scratch out more than four hits in their last game. They have also won 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Giolito who is 1-2 with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics suggest he should be faring better — his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.46 and 3.20 moving forward based on his peripheral stats. The right-hander has been consistently good over the last two seasons with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 325 strikeouts and 85 walks in 249 innings entering the 2021 campaign. He has been more effective at home so far this season with a 2.63 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .163 in two starts. Chicago has won 17 of their last 26 games with Giolito with him pitching with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. He should have success against this Indians team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .196 batting average, .264 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .619. Cleveland has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Indians have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Cleveland has played their last four games Over the Total — but they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They counter with Plesac who is 1-3 with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander has a 4.12 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in three starts — but he sees those numbers rise to a 10.80 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, and a .406 opponent’s batting average in two starts so far on the road. Plesac was 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA in eight starts in the shortened season last year — but his SIERA and xFIP of 3.41 and 3.50 suggested he was overachieving. The Indians have lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Plesac pitching as an underdog. Cleveland has also lost 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record. Please faces this White Sox team that has won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Indians have lost 29 of their last 38 games as an underdog — and Chicago has won 21 of their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. Cleveland has lost eight of their thirteen games by more than one run — and the White Sox have won twelve of their fifteen games by more than one run. With Chicago priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Run-Line Deal with Chicago White Sox (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (919) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Zach Plesac. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-21 |
Padres v. Diamondbacks +1.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Arizona Diamondbacks (958) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (957) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Chris Paddack. THE SITUATION: Arizona (11-11) has won sox of their last last seven games after their doubleheader sweep of the Braves in Atlanta that culminated in their 7-0 victory in the second game on Sunday. San Diego (13-11) has won three of their last four games after their 8-7 victory in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Diamondbacks have also won 25 of their last 34 games after an off day. They return home where they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Kelly who has struggled with a 1-2 record with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in four starts. The sabermetrics suggest he has deserved better with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.86 moving forward. Furthermore, all four of Kelly’s starts have been on the road. The 32-year-old right-hander has a career ERA 3.33 mark along with a 1.15 WHIP in 108 innings at home. Kelly faces a Padres team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .231 batting average, a .314 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .667 this season. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory — and they have lost 5 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with Paddack who is 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in four starts. The right-hander allowed five runs in five innings of work in his last start at home against Milwaukee last Tuesday. But only one of those runs were earned runs — and the Padres have lost 12 of their last 17 games when Paddack is following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. Paddack had a 3.44 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 at home last season — but those numbers rose to a 6.85 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .333 in five starts on the road. San Diego has lost 6 of their last 9 road games with Paddack pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces an Arizona team scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres have lost 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and the Diamondbacks have won 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. While taking Arizona with the money-line is an option, with the +1.5 Run-Line price is below my -150 price threshold, I prefer the investment into the valuable +1.5 Runs. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the playing the Arizona Diamondbacks (958) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (957) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Chris Paddack. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-25-21 |
Padres v. Dodgers -117 |
Top |
8-7 |
Loss |
-117 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (964) versus the San Diego Padres (963) listing both starting pitchers Dustin May and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (15-6) won the third game of this series yesterday with their 5-4 victory against the Padres. San Diego (12-11) won the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should build off their momentum tonight — they have won 15 of their last 19 games after a victory by one run against an NL West rival. The Dodgers have also won 40 of their last 54 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. LA has won 7 of their 9 games at home this season. They give the ball to May who is 1-1 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in three starts so far this year. The right-hander was 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 12 games (10 starts) during the regular season last year. This may be a breakout season for him as he is not using his sinker as much deeper in the count. Instead, he is relying on his four-seam fastball, his curveball, or his cutter to punch out batters. May is striking out 33.8% of the batters he faces with his swinging strike rate up to 14.4%. Those are elite numbers. May was dominant at home last year with a 2.40 ERA, 1.076 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in six games (five starts) in the regular season last year. The Dodgers have won 5 of their last 6 home games with May on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a San Diego team that has lost 12 of their last 17 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Padres have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego counters with Musgrove who comes off a strong outing where he allowed two runs in 7 innings of work. But Musgrove’s teams have lost 9 of their last 13 games when he is following up a start where did not allow more than one earned run. The left-hander has been outstanding this season with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.54 WHIP in four starts that includes a no-hitter. But while Musgrove had a 2.41 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average at home playing for Pittsburgh last year, those numbers jumped to a 5.14 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .256 opponents batting average on the road. Musgrove’s teams have lost 15 of their last 20 games when he is pitching on the road as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .277 batting average, .329 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .833 this season. LA has won 40 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers have also won 49 of their last 68 against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has lost 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and Los Angeles has won 12 of their last 17 against teams with a winning record. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (964) versus the San Diego Padres (963) listing both starting pitchers Dustin May and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-21 |
Brewers v. Cubs -150 |
|
2-15 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (952) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (951) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Brett Anderson. THE SITUATION: Chicago (9-9) has won three games in a row with their 4-3 win against the New York Mets yesterday. Milwaukee (11-7) has won three in a row as well after their 4-2 win at San Diego on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 25 of their last 35 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in three starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from an ugly outing for Sunday Night Baseball against Atlanta where he surrendered seven runs on four innings of work. Hendricks had pitched well in his previous outing where he did not allow an earned run against these Brewers on April 7th. Hendricks was coming off an illness last weekend — and he tested negative for COVID. I am giving him a pass. The veteran right-hander has struck out 12 batters in 13 innings — so that looks good. He was 6-5 with a 2.88 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP last season — and he enjoyed a 1.85 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in six starts at home. The Cubs have won 18 of their last 24 games with Hendricks pitching as a favorite priced up to -150. He faces a Brewers team without Christian Yelich who is on the disabled list. Milwaukee has lost 7 of their last 10 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Brewers have also lost 19 of their last 28 games after an off day. They counter with Anderson who is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in three starts after pitching seven shutout innings at home against Pittsburgh last Saturday. The deeper metrics are troubling with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.47 and 4.08 moving forward. The left-hander was 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP last season with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.40 and 4.41. Anderson also got hit hard in day games last year where he was saddled with a 7.71 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in two starts. He faces a Cubs team that is crushing lefties — they are scoring 6.8 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .262 batting average, .341 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .828. Chicago has won 5 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15. Milwaukee has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago is looking to avenge a 7-0 loss to the Brewers on April 14th — and they have won 10 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from a shutout loss. 10* MLB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (952) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (951) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Brett Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-22-21 |
Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Dodgers (14-4) have won nine of their last eleven games after their 1-0 win at Seattle on Tuesday. San Diego (10-10) has lost three in a row after their 4-2 loss to Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won a whopping 43 of their last 58 games after a win — including 11 of their 13 games this season after a victory. The Dodgers return home where they have won 90 of their last 122 games when favored over the last three seasons. Los Angeles has also won 24 of their last 30 home games with the Total set at 7 to 7.5. They give the ball to Buehler who is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in three starts consisting of 18 innings. His strikeouts are down early along with his velocity — but his spin rate is up, perhaps a product of his new teammate (and Spin Doctor) Trevor Bauer. Buehler has relied mostly on his four-seam fastball but he should start relying more on his secondary pitches as the season moves forward. I have no worries about him at home where he had a 1.31 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .114 in four regular-season starts. Blisters held him back in the regular season during last year’s shortened season — but the 26-year-old is a starter I trust even after just three starts. He posted a 1.89 ERA in his four postseason starts last year en route to the Dodgers World Series Championship. Buehler has a career ERA of 2.39 with a 0.87 WHIP in his 197 innings at home. Los Angeles has won 17 of their last 22 home games with Buehler pitching as a favorite priced at -110 tor higher. The Dodgers have also won 27 of their last 34 games with Buehler pitching as a favorite priced higher than -150. He should fare well against this Padres team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .200 batting average, an on-base percentage of .288, and an OPS of .573. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Padres have only scored three runs in their last three games while failing to hit a home run in three straight games. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 10 games after not scoring more than two runs in three straight games — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games after going homerless in at least two straight contests. They counter with Ryan Weathers who is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings this season which involves four appearances including one start. Control is an issue for the 21-year-old — he has already issued four walks this season. While he has pitched two innings on the road this season (after not pitching in last year’s regular-season), this is his first professional start on the road. Tough assignment against the world champs who will have Mookie Betts play despite a nagging forearm issue. The Dodgers love playing under the lights — they are scoring 6.8 Runs-Per-Game in 11-night games with a .278 batting average, .358 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .852. LA has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and the Dodgers have won 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: While none of these team trends take the -1.5 Run-Line into account, consider this: the Padres have lost eight of their ten games this season by more than one run, and the Dodgers have won eleven of their fourteen games this season by more than one run. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-21-21 |
Twins v. A's +102 |
|
12-13 |
Win
|
102 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (962) versus the Minnesota Twins (961) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kenta Maeda. THE SITUATION: Oakland (11-7) has won ten games in a row with their doubleheader sweep against the Twins that concluded with a 1-0 victory last night. Minnesota (6-10) has lost three in a row along with eight of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has won 29 of their last 44 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 5 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Montas who is 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in three starts. The 28-year-old has deserved better given his SIERA and xFIP that assesses the deeper peripheral numbers to project an ERA for the right-hander of 3.82 and 4.12 moving forward. Montas needs his splitter working to be at his most effective — and he finally got that pitch going in his last start against Detroit where he pitched six scoreless innings on April 11th. Montas produces swinging whiffs on four of his six splitters that coaxed swings from the batter. Montas splitter was outstanding in 2019, but he struggled with the pitch last season in the COVID-shortened season. Montas was 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 11 starts (53 innings) — but he was better at home where he generated a 2.56 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in 31 2/3 innings. His SIERA and xFIP numbers last season were over a run lower as well with 4.40 and 4.36 marks. The A’s have won 11 of their last 13 home games with Montas pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or better. Oakland has also won 4 straight home games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Maeda who is 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in his first three starts. He comes off a middling effort at home to Boston where he allowed three runs (one earned) in 4 1/3 innings on April 14th. The 32-year-old right-hander’s SIERA and xFIP of 3.98 and 3.65 does suggest he is overachieving so far this season. Maeda had a 6-1 record with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 11 starts in his first year with the Twins last season — but he was extremely fortunate to have a batting average for the balls he allowed into play (BABIP) of .208 which is far below the MLB average that is usually in the .290 to .295 range. Maeda did his best work at home last year where he had a 1.91 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .109 in five starts — but he saw those numbers rise to a 3.48 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in his six starts on the road. His teams have lost 8 of their last 10 road games with him making the start with the total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Twins have lost 4 of their last 5 road games.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s have won seven straight games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they are scoring a healthy 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Twins are without everyday starters Andrelton Simmons and Max Kepler who are in COVID quarantine — and they are scoring just 1.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last five games with a .211 batting average, .276 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .533 over that span. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (962) versus the Minnesota Twins (961) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kenta Maeda. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-10-21 |
A's v. Astros -142 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-142 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the Oakland A’s (923) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Houston (6-2) lost the opening game of this series in a 6-2 loss to the A’s. Oakland (2-7) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has bounced back to win 10 of their last 14 games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Astros are playing just their third game at home in Minute Maid Park this season — and they have won 38 of their last 52 home games with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. They give the ball to Urquidy who allowed two runs in 4 1/3 innings of work in his first start of the season at Oakland last Sunday. The 25-year old right-hander was 1-1 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in five starts last year. The right-hander was more effective at home where he had a 2.08 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 as compared to his 3.24 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .210 opponent’s batting average on the road. He faces a slumping A’s team that is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game this season with a .170 batting average and an OPS of .514. Oakland has lost 7 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 7 of their last 8 games after a win — and they have lost 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have lost 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Montas was rocked for seven runs in 2 2/3 innings of work in his first start of the season in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. The 28-year old right-hander had a 3-5 record with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 11 starts last year — but while he had a 2.56 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in 31 2/3 innings at home, those numbers rose to a 10.13 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .330 in 21 1/3 innings of work on the road. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .290 batting average and an OPS of .890 this season. The A’s have lost 5 of their last 7 games with Montas on the mound as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. Oakland has also lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Houston was upset yesterday as a -175 money-line favorite — and they have won 20 of their last 30 games when avenging an upset loss where they were favored as at least a -150 money-line favorite. 10* MLB Oakland-Houston FS1-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the Oakland A’s (923) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-20 |
Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-112 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tony Gonsolin in Game Six of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (55-22) can win the World Series tonight after their 4-2 victory in Game Five on Sunday. Tampa Bay (51-28) looks to force a climactic seventh game. The Dodgers will be the designated home team for this game being played at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an off day. They send out Gonsolin who was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in eight starts (nine games) in the regular season. The deeper sabermetrics called for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.80. In this postseason, the right-hander has a 9.39 ERA along with a 1.70 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings — and his SIERA and xFIP of 5.94 and 7.10 agrees that he did not deserve much better results. He faces a Rays lineup that has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Gonsolin will be supported by a Los Angeles bullpen that has a 4.50 ERA in their last five games. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Snell who was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven regular season starts. The Rays have played 7 of their last 9 games with Snell on the mound Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Dodgers’ lineup that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when facing a left-handed starting pitcher in Interleague play.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played their last 3 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the series. This World Series has also seen 4 of the 5 games finish Over the Total. Look for those trends to continue. 10* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-20 |
Rays +126 v. Dodgers |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (961) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tony Gonsolin in Game Six of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (51-28) looks to force a climactic seventh game of the World Series tonight after losing Game Five on Sunday by a 4-2 score. Los Angeles (55-22) can win the World Series tonight. The Dodgers will be the designated home team for this game being played at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Expect this feisty Tampa Bay team to win this game as an underdog. The Rays have won 18 of their last 22 games after a loss. They also have won 14 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and this includes them winning their last five games after not scoring three or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, Tampa Bay has won 9 of their last 13 games after an off day. They also have won 14 of their last 20 games as an underdog. They give the ball to Snell who had a 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. The left-hander has a 2-2 record in these playoffs with a 3.33 ERA in 24 1/3 innings while striking out 28 batters. He last pitched in Game Two on Wednesday of last week — and the Rays have won 26 of their last 37 games when Snell is pitching with five or six days of rest. He faces a Dodgers team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers in Interleague play. Los Angeles counters with Gonsolin who was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in eight starts (nine games) in the regular season. The deeper sabermetrics called for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.80. In this postseason, the right-hander has a 9.39 ERA along with a 1.70 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings — and his SIERA and xFIP of 5.94 and 7.10 agrees that he did not deserve much better results. The Dodgers have lost 5 of their last 8 games with Gonsolin making the start as a favorite priced up to -150.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers team that committed two errors on the final play of Game Five worries me. This remains a franchise that has lost 7 of their last 10 World Series games. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series — and they have won 4 of their last 5 playoff games when facing elimination in the playoffs. Snell should outpitch Gonsolin to force a Game Seven on Wednesday. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (961) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-20 |
Dodgers v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (959) and the Tampa Bay Rays (960) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow in Game Five of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (51-27) evened this series at 2-2 last night with their comeback 8-7 victory in the bottom of the ninth inning against the Dodgers. Los Angeles (54-22) has lost two of their last three games. This game will be played on a neutral field in Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas. The Rays are the designated home team.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a blown save — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last contest. They send out Kershaw who was dominant in his last start in Game One of the World Series where he allowed only one run in 6 innings of work. Yet the Dodgers have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total with Kershaw following up a Quality Start where he did not allow more than one earned run. Tampa Bay has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total in Interleague play against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rays have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Glasnow who struggled in Game One by allowing six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. The right-hander has a 6.08 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work in this postseason. The Rays have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Glasnow pitching after a victory.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are averaging 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .281 batting average along with a .358 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .891. Los Angeles has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (959) and the Tampa Bay Rays (960) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-20 |
Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 |
Top |
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Tampa Bay Rays (958) in Game Four of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (54-21) took a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 6-2 victory over the Rays. Tampa Bay (50-27) has lost five of their last seven games. This game is being played on a neutral field at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Rays are the designated home team.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against an opponent who allowed at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total priced as the favorite at least at -150. They give the ball to Urias who was 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eleven regular-season appearances which included ten starts. The left-hander was not as effective on the road where his ERA rose to a 4.67 mark along with a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in four starts as compared to his 2.63 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .200 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home at Dodgers Stadium. Urias has been outstanding in this postseason — but I remain wary of his deeper sabermetrics with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.88 and 5.06 from his peripheral numbers in the regular season. Urias has a 0.56 ERA in 16 innings in these playoffs but his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.34 and 3.80 moving forward based only on his peripheral numbers in this postseason. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or higher. The Rays have also played 8 of their last 9 games in Interleague play Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay left only two runners on base yesterday — but they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing no more than three runners on base in their last game. The Rays have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Yarbrough who was 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 in 55 2/3 innings of regular-season work. His SIERA and xFIP during that time projected an ERA of 4.44 and 4.32 respectively. The lefty has a nice 3.37 ERA in 10 2/3 innings in these playoffs — but I have had the Over circled for this Game Four because of his SIERA and xFIP for those 10 2/3 innings project his ERA to blow up to a 5.32 and 6.26 level respectively moving forward.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Urias making the start as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Tampa Bay Rays (958). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-20 |
Dodgers v. Rays +1.5 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Walker Buehler in Game Three of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (50-26) evened the World Series at a game apiece with their 6-4 victory in Game Two on Wednesday. Los Angeles (53-21) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss. The World Series is being played on a neutral field at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Rays are the designated home team for Game Three.
REASONS TO TAKE TAMPA BAY MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Rays should build off their momentum as they have won 31 of their last 48 games after a win. Tampa Bay has also won 11 of their last 12 games after an off day. Additionally, the Rays have won 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have pulled the upset in 4 of their last 5 games in Interleague play as the dog. They give the ball to Morton who was 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in nine starts in the regular season. The sabermetrics projected that he was underachieving from those frontline numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.97 and 4.01 — and his postseason numbers have validated that assessment. Morton is 3-0 in these playoffs with a 0.57 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings of work with 17 strikeouts and just four walks. The right-hander has plenty of World Series experience with his 2017 run with the Houston Astros where he played an instrumental role in helping them win the title. His teams have won 6 of their last 7 playoff games when he is making the start. Tampa Bay has also won 9 of their last 12 games with Morton pitching as an underdog priced up to +150. Los Angeles has lost 11 of its last 17 games in the playoffs when the series is tied. They counter with Buehler who was 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in eight regular-season starts. The sabermetrics raised red flags with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.80 and 3.93. The right-hander has been tough so far in this postseason with his 1.89 ERA in 19 innings — but a high 1.37 WHIP is another red flag. Buehler also had a 6.19 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in four starts away from Dodgers Stadium in the regular season.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have lost 6 of their last 8 games in the World Series after Wednesday. I think this is a situation is closer to a pick ‘em — and with the Rays’ priced below my -150 threshold when getting the valuable +1.5 Run-Line, let’s attack with a solid 20* investment. 20* MLB LA Dodgers-Tampa Bay Fox-TV Run-Line Special with the Tampa Bay Rays (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-20 |
Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (953) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tony Gonsolin in Game Two of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-20) won the opening game of the World Series last night by an 8-3 score. Tampa Bay (49-26) has now won four of their last five games. The World Series will be played on a neutral field at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Dodgers are the designated home team for Game One.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles will send Gonsolin to the hill instead of Walker Buehler who was the starter in Game Six of the NLCS on Saturday. This allows Buehler to pitch on five days of rest rather than three while keeping him in line to make the start in a potential Game Seven. Gonsolin takes the hill with his 2-2 record with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in eight starts (nine games) in the regular season. But the sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.80 moving forward. Gonsolin’s postseason has seen his numbers decline as he has a 9.95 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP in 6 1/3 innings of work. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the playoffs as the favorite. The Over is also 6-2-3 in Los Angeles’ last 12 games in Interleague play. Tampa Bay has played 33 of their last 48 games Over the Total after allowing at least 8 runs in their last game. The Rays have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Snell who was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven starts in the regular season. The left-hander did see his ERA rise to a 3.72 mark in his six starts away from home in the regular season. In three playoff starts, Snell has a 4.50 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP. Tampa Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Snell pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .276 batting average over that span along with a .369 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .912. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (953) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-20 |
Rays v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
|
3-8 |
Win
|
102 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:11 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw in Game One of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (49-25) reached the World Series on Saturday with their 4-2 win over the Houston Astros in Game Seven of the ALCS. Los Angeles (52-20) joined them a day later on Sunday by defeating the Atlanta Braves in Game Seven of that series by a 4-3 score. The World Series will be played on a neutral field at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Dodgers are the designated home team for Game One.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an off day — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against an opponent that did not allow more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 6-2-2 in the last 10 opening games to a new series. The Dodgers’ bullpen pitched 8 innings on Sunday with Dustin May completing only 1 inning of work — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 7 innings. They give the ball to Kershaw who was 6-2 in ten regular-season starts with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. The left-hander has been dealing with back spasms that not only canceled his planned Game Two start in the NLCS but also kept him from starting Game Seven on Sunday. His 5.72 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP in his last two starts in these playoffs is concerning. His career 4.31 ERA in 177 1/3 innings of work in the postseason also raises alarms. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 23 games on the road Over the Total with Kershaw pitching after a victory. The Dodgers have also played 23 of their last 35 games Over the Total with Kershaw pitching at night. Kershaw faces a Rays team that has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total in interleague play against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rays have also played 9 of their last 12 games in Interleague play Over the Total again teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Glasnow who was 5-1 in eleven regular-season starts with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Glasnow has pitched 19 1/3 innings in four postseason starts in these playoffs. He has a 4.66 ERA in these games. The Rays have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .254 batting average along with a .339 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .844 over that span. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-20 |
Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers |
Top |
3-8 |
Loss |
-132 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:11 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw in Game One of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (49-25) reached the World Series on Saturday with their 4-2 win over the Houston Astros in Game Seven of the ALCS. Los Angeles (52-20) joined them a day later on Sunday by defeating the Atlanta Braves in Game Seven of that series by a 4-3 score. The World Series will be played on a neutral field at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Dodgers are the designated home team for Game One.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 20 of their last 28 games after a win by two runs or less — and they have won 36 of their last 53 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Rays have also won 9 of their last 11 games after an off day. Tampa Bay got by the Astros despite not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. But the Rays have then won 10 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. They give the ball to Glasnow who was 5-1 in eleven regular-season starts with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP — and he was more effective on the road where he had a 3.45 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in six starts. In four postseason starts spanning 19 1/3 innings this season, he has struck out 25 batters while walking only eight. Tampa Bay has won 16 of their last 20 games with Glasnow pitching after the team had a win. And while Glasnow last pitched on Wednesday of last week, the Rays have won 8 of their last 9 games with Glasnow pitching on five or six days of rest. Los Angeles has stranded ten runners in two straight games which is a disturbing sign for them — they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after stranding at least ten runners in two straight games. They give the ball to Kershaw who was 6-2 in ten regular-season starts with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. The left-hander has been dealing with back spasms that not only canceled his planned Game Two start in the NLCS but also kept him from starting Game Seven on Sunday. His 5.72 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP in his last two starts in these playoffs is concerning. His career 4.31 ERA in 177 1/3 innings of work in the postseason also raises alarms. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 4.54 ERA in their last seven games. And Kershaw faces a Rays team that has won 11 of their last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers enter the World Series having lost 5 of their last 6 games in the Fall Classic — and they have also lost 3 of their last 4 games in the World Series with Kershaw making the start.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has pulled the upset in 6 of their last 9 games when an underdog that is priced in the +125 to +175 price range. The Dodgers have won five of their last six games when priced higher than the -150 threshold — but two of those victories were just by one run. With the +1.5 Run-Line priced below my -150 price threshold, this is my preferred bet for this game. 25* MLB Tuesday Night Run-Line Special Feature with the Tampa Bay Rays (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-20 |
Braves v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) in Game Seven of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-20) forced a climactic seventh game in the NLCS last night with their 3-1 victory over the Braves. Atlanta (43-28) has lost the last two games in this series. The NLCS is being played in Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas with the Dodgers the designated home team batting last.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves give the ball to Anderson who was 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in six regular-season starts. He has pitched 15 2/3 innings of scoreless innings in his three postseason starts which are the sixth most in MLB history for a starting pitcher making his debut in the playoffs. We are approaching Christy Mathewson territory here — and I expect this streak to end tonight. The Dodgers now have a book on Anderson from which to develop a strategy. Anderson also showed some vulnerabilities by walking five batters in that start. Furthermore, the deeper sabermetrics show some red flags with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.82 and 3.45 moving forward from his regular-season peripheral numbers. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 6.68 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP in their last seven games. The Braves pen did not allow a run last night — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a game where they did not allow an earned run. Atlanta has not committed an error in four straight games either — but they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after not committing an error in two straight games. Additionally, the Braves have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. Los Angeles has now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs as the favorite. They counter with May who will be pitching on just one day of rest after pitching on Friday — so he will not pitch more than an inning or two. The right-hander had a 2.57 ERA in the regular season — but his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA to be 4.29 and 3.98 respectively moving forward. Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias will likely next be up as left-handers. Gonsolin had a 2.31 ERA during the regular season but I am wary of his SIERA and xFIP of 3.68 and 3.80. Urias had a 3.27 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in the regular season but those numbers rose to a 4.67 and 1.33 when pitching away from Dodgers Stadium. Urias also has a SIERA of 4.88 and an xFIP of 5.06. The LA bullpen has a 4.54 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP over their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles is also scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .263 batting average, .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .844. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-20 |
Braves v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:38 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Max Fried in Game Six of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-20) extended the NLCS to a sixth game last night with their 7-3 victory over the Braves. Atlanta (43-27) has lost two of their last three games. The NLCS is being played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Dodgers will be the designated home team for Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs. Atlanta has also played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range — and this includes them playing eleven of these last fifteen situations Over the Total. The Over is also 16-5-1 in the Braves’ last 22 games when they are the underdog. They give the ball to Fried who was 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. He allowed only one earned run in Game One of this series on Monday — but Atlanta has then played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when Fried is pitching after a game where did not allow more than one earned run. The Braves have also played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total with Fried on the hill with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers’ bullpen logged in seven innings of work last night as well — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched at least seven innings. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored. They counter with Buehler who had a 1-0 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in eight regular-season starts. Buehler has not allowed more than one earned run in two straight starts — but the Dodgers have then played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one earned run in two straight starts.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 straight playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the series. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) versus the Atlanta Braves (905) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-20 |
Braves v. Dodgers -140 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 4:38 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) versus the Atlanta Braves (905) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Max Fried in Game Six of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-20) extended the NLCS to a sixth game last night with their 7-3 victory over the Braves. Atlanta (43-27) has lost two of their last three games. The NLCS is being played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Dodgers will be the designated home team for Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE LOS ANGELES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Dodgers have won 38 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The last four games in this series have finished Over the Total — and Los Angeles has won 14 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight Overs. The Dodgers have also won 39 of their last 53 games with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. And in their last 55 day games, LA has won 43 of these contests. They give the ball to Buehler who allowed one run in 5 innings of work in Game One of this series. The right-hander had a 1-0 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in eight regular season starts. In his three postseason starts, Buehler has a 2.77 ERA spanning 13 innings. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season with Buehler on the hill. Atlanta has lost 3 of their last 4 playoff games when attempting to close out the series. Atlanta has also lost 13 of their last 21 games after playing two straight Overs. Additionally, the Braves have lost 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. And in their last 12 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, Atlanta has lost 9 of these games. They counter with Fried who was 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in eleven regular season starts. The lefty has a 2.65 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP in 17 postseason innings this year. But I remain concerned about his deeper sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.32 and 4.06 based off his regular season peripheral numbers. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 18 of their last 24 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 41 of their last 58 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is averaging 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .843. The Atlanta bullpen has a 6.25 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP in their last seven games. The Dodgers should force a climactic seventh game in the NLCS. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) versus the Atlanta Braves (905) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-20 |
Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9 |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Atlanta Braves (904) listing both starting pitchers Dustin May and A.J. Minter in Game Five of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (43-26) took a 3-1 lead in this series last night with their 10-2 victory over the Dodgers. Los Angeles (49-20) looks to stave off elimination tonight. This game is being played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas with the Braves the designated home team.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 19-8-5 in Atlanta’s last 32 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least eight runs in their last contest. The Braves have also played 5 straight games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 10.5 range. And in their last 21 games as an underdog, the Over is 15-5-1 for Atlanta. They give the ball to Minter to serve as their opener. He had a 1-1 record with a 0.83 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings during the regular season. But the sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.74 moving forward. He will be supported by a Braves’ bullpen that the Dodgers have started getting to — they have a 4.70 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP in their last seven games. Los Angeles is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .257 batting average along with a .363 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .811 during that span. The Over is 7-2-2 in the Dodgers’ last 11 games after a loss. Additionally, Los Angeles ha played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with May who was 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in ten starts (twelve games) in the regular season. His SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.29 and 3.98 moving forward. He will face a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .267 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .848. The LA bullpen has also been saddled with a 4.83 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP in their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 55 of their last 89 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were favored by at least a -150 price on the road. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Atlanta Braves (904) listing both starting pitchers Dustin May and A.J. Minter. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-20 |
Astros v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
7-4 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 6:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Tampa Bay Rays (902) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Blake Snell in Game Six of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (36-35) looks to build off the momentum of their 4-3 victory over the Rays last night. Tampa Bay (48-24) still holds a 3-2 lead in this series. This series is being played in San Diego’s Petco Park with the Rays being the designated home team for Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 7-2-1 in the Astros’ last 10 games after a win. And while Houston’ bullpen blew the save last night after allowing a tying run in the top of the 8th inning, they have then played 32 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a blown save. The Astros have not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in their last game. They also have played 4 straight games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They give the ball to Valdez pitching on full rest after allowing two runs in 6 innings of work in Game One of this series on Sunday. The left-hander had a 5-3 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in the regular season. The deeper sabermetrics validate those strong frontline numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.61 and 3.16 moving forward. The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Valdez pitching with the Total set at 7 to 8.5 — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Valdez pitching during day games. He faces a slumping Rays lineup leaving hordes of runners on base. Tampa Bay is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .174 batting average along with a .247 batting average and an OPS of .573 during that span. The Rays have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They are also hitting just .219 with a .298 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .703 against left-handed pitchers — and they have played 37 of their last 58 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 14-5-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 20 games after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less. The Rays are hitting only .175 over their last five games — and they have then played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not hitting better than .225 in their last five games. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has also played 5 straight games Under the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Snell who allowed one run in 5 innings in Game One of this series on Sunday. The left-hander had a 4-2 record with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. The Rays have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with Snell pitching as a favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 2.38 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP in their last seven games. He faces an Astros team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Tampa Bay has played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a one-run loss. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Tampa Bay Rays (902) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-15-20 |
Rays -131 v. Astros |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-131 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
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At 5:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (975) with the money-line versus the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers John Curtiss and Luis Garcia in Game Five of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (35-35) staved off elimination last night with their 4-3 victory over the Rays. Tampa Bay (48-23) still leads this series by a 3-1 margin. This series is being played in San Diego’s Petco Park with the Astros the designated home team.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Rays should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have won 32 of their last 44 games after a loss by two runs or less. Tampa Bay has not committed an error in five straight games — and they have won 21 of their last 30 games after not committing an error in two straight games. The Rays will need their strong defense with this game being a bullpen game. Curtiss will be the opener who was 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 25 innings of work. Tampa Bay is better prepared to handle the ALCS schedule in the bubble without days off since they have deployed the opener strategy with bulk work expected from their bullpen for two seasons now. Their bullpen has a 2.03 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in their last seven games. The Rays have won 22 of their last 31 games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range. Houston has lost 10 of their last 14 games coming off a victory. The Astros have also lost 13 of their last 19 games when an underdog is priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They counter with Garcia who was 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 12 1/3 innings of work in the regular season. This will be the 23-year old’s first appearance in a postseason game. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.05 and 5.22 moving forward based on his deeper peripheral numbers. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 4.71 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP in their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 37 of their last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Look for the Rays to close out this series today. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (975) with the money-line versus the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers John Curtiss and Luis Garcia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-14-20 |
Rays v. Astros UNDER 8.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
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At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (971) and the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Zack Greinke in Game Four of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (48-22) took a 3-0 lead in the ALCS with their 5-2 victory over the Astros yesterday. Houston (34-35) has lost four of their last five games. This series is being played on a neutral field at Petco Park in San Diego.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Tampa Bay has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored in the game. The Rays have also played 4 straight games Under the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Tampa Bay is getting great efforts out of their bullpen that has a 2.18 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP over the last seven days. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. The right-hander was more effective on the road with his 3.45 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP and .190 opponent’s batting average in six road starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish on Glasnow with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.75 moving forward from his deeper peripherals. Glasnow has been sharp in the postseason. He has an ERA of 4.05 given one mediocre outing — but his WHIP is 1.13 in 13 1/3 playoff innings while striking out 20 batters and walking only six. His last outing was on October 9th when he pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings in Game Five of the ALDS against the New York Yankees on just two days of rest. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss — and the Under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 11-5-2 in the Astros’ last eighteen games against right-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. They counter with Greinke who was 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twelve regular-season starts. He last pitched last Thursday when he pitched 4 2/3 innings against Oakland — and the Astros have played 8 straight games Under the Total with Greinke pitching on five or six days of rest. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Greinke on the mound looking to end a losing streak.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (971) and the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-14-20 |
Rays -138 v. Astros |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-138 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
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At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (971) versus the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Zack Greinke in Game Four of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (48-22) took a 3-0 lead in the ALCS with their 5-2 victory over the Astros yesterday. Houston (34-35) has lost four of their last five games. This series is being played on a neutral field at Petco Park in San Diego.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Rays have also won 36 of their last 52 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Tampa Bay has not allowed more than two runs in four straight games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than three runs in their last two contests. They are getting great efforts out of their bullpen that has a 2.18 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP over the last seven days. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. The right-hander was more effective on the road with his 3.45 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP and .190 opponent’s batting average in six road starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish on Glasnow with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.75 moving forward from his deeper peripherals. Glasnow has been sharp in the postseason. He has an ERA of 4.05 given one mediocre outing — but his WHIP is 1.13 in 13 1/3 playoff innings while striking out 20 batters and walking only six. His last outing was on October 9th when he pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings in Game Five of the ALDS against the New York Yankees on just two days of rest. Tampa Bay has won 13 straight games with Glasnow pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. Houston has now lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also have lost 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog. They counter with Greinke who was 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twelve starts during the regular season. The right-hander was not as effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.59 and 1.20 marks with his opponents hitting a .267 against him in six starts. Greinke has been dealing with arm soreness which may be limiting his effectiveness. He has not completed five innings of work in three straight starts. He allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Oakland on October 8th. In his 8 2/3 innings in the postseason this year, Greinke has a 5.19 ERA with only five strikeouts. He will be supported by a shaky bullpen that has a 4.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season — and those numbers rise to 4.78 and 1.52 marks in night games.
FINAL TAKE: The record was mixed in the NBA and NHL regarding how teams performed when facing playoff elimination. Some teams like the Denver Nuggets maintained their resolve. However, many teams saw the opportunity to escape the bubble required for those playoff games and gave only a half-hearted effort in their final game. I suspect this embattled Astros team that has been under the microscope all year for the cheating scandal will have one eye on the exit door tonight. They sleepwalked through the regular season. They also have lost 3 of their last 4 playoff games with Greinke pitching in an elimination game. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (971) versus the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-20 |
Astros v. Rays -118 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the Houston Astros (963) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers in Game Two of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (46-22) won the opening game of this series last night by a 2-1 score. Houston (34-33) has lost two of their last three games. This game is being played on a neutral field in Petco Park in San Diego with the Rays the designated the home team batting last.
REASONS TO TAKE TAMPA BAY WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Rays have won 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Tampa Bay has also won 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Rays have also won 14 of their last 18 games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They give the ball to Morton who was 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in nine regular-season starts. The right-hander was more effective away from home where he had a 3.18 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in four starts. Tampa Bay has won 4 of their last 5 games with Morton starting as the favorite priced in the +/- 125 range. The Rays have also won 32 of their last 43 games with Morton pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has won 4 of their last 5 playoff games with Morton on the mound — and they have won 18 of their last 27 games with Morton pitching in a day game. Houston has still won four of their last six games — but they have then lost 11 of their last 17 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Astros have also lost 11 of their last 14 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range. And in their last 20 games as an underdog, Houston has lost 14 of these contests. They counter with McCullers who was 3-3 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. But while the right-hander enjoyed a 1.42 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .159 at home, his numbers skyrocket to a 7.33 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296 in six starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have lost 20 of their last 23 games with McCullers pitching when priced in the +/- 125 range. 20* MLB Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the Houston Astros (963) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-11-20 |
Astros v. Rays -128 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (967) versus the Houston Astros (968) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Framber Valdez in Game One of their American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (45-22) has won three of their last four games after defeating the Yankees in Game Five of their ALDS on Friday by a 2-1 score. Houston (34-32) has reached the ALCS by winning five of their last six games with their 11-6 win over Oakland on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay should build off their momentum as they have won 22 of their last 29 games after winning three of their last four games. The Rays have also won 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 31 of their last 41 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Tampa Bay has also won 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than one run in their last game. Additionally, the Rays have won 8 of their last 10 games after an off-day. They did not use Snell as a reliever for Tyler Glasnow on Friday which gives him free rein to start this game six days after his last start on Monday. Tampa Bay has won 25 of their last 36 games with Snell pitching on five or six days of rest. He was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. His deeper sabermetrics expect more of the same with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.57 and 3.06 moving forward. Houston has lost 9 of their last 13 games after a win — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 games away from home after winning four or five of their last six games. The Astros have also 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, while Houston has played two straight Overs, they have then lost 10 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Overs. They counter with Valdez who is 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP during the regular season. But while he had an ERA of 3.52 at home with an opponent’s batting average of .211 in five starts, those numbers rose to a 3.60 ERA with a .260 opponent’s batting average on the road. He faces a Rays team that has won 10 of their last 14 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have lost 21 of their last 31 games on the road — and they have lost 18 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Houston has also lost 8 of their last 12 road games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. 10* MLB Houston-Tampa Bay TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (967) versus the Houston Astros (968) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-20 |
Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be Over the Total in the game between the playing the New York Yankees (933) and the Tampa Bay Rays (934) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow in Game Five of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (44-22) looks to rebound from their 5-1 loss to the Yankees yesterday in Game Four of this series. New York (37-29) has won four of their last six games after their win on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral field at San Diego’s Petco Park with the Rays the designed home team batting last tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees are crushing the baseball right now — they are averaging 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .865 over that span. New York has played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They also have played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one earned run in their last contest. And in their last 4 games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range, the Yankees have played all 4 games Over the Total. They give the ball to Cole who will be making his first-ever career start on just three days of rest after he pitched Game One of this series. While Cole was 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA in the regular season, his ERA rose to a 3.67 mark in his six starts on the road. The sabermetrics also call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.21 and 3.38 respectively. He also has a 3.45 ERA in his 13 innings of postseason work this year. Nothing wrong with an ERA expectation in the mid-3s — but it certainly changes the betting dynamic when looking at his frontline numbers or evaluating him from his spectacular 2019 season with the Houston Astros. And while the Yankees’ bullpen has had to pitch at least five innings in the last three games in this series, they have then played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged-in at least four innings in three straight games. Tampa Bay needed 6 1/3 inning from their bullpen yesterday — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where they pitched at least 6 innings. The Rays have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Glasnow who was 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in the regular season. He has a 4.91 ERA in his two playoff starts after allowing four runs on Tuesday in Game Two of this series. He is also pitching on just two days rest. Furthermore, the Rays have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Glasnow pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have still played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total even after yesterday’s game. Expect a high scoring game. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Tampa Bay TBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the playing the New York Yankees (933) and the Tampa Bay Rays (934) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-20 |
Yankees v. Rays +1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (934) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (933) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow in Game Five of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (44-22) looks to rebound from their 5-1 loss to the Yankees yesterday in Game Four of this series. New York (37-29) has won four of their last six games after their win on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral field at San Diego’s Petco Park with the Rays the designed home team batting last tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 14 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least four runs. The Rays have also won 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 37 of their last 55 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while they managed just three base hits yesterday, they have then won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than four base hits in their last game. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season. The tall right-hander registered 92 strikeouts in just 57 1/3 innings of work. The sabermetrics are bullish on Glasnow with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.75 moving forward. He was more effective away from home where he had a 3.45 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in six starts. Glasnow has punched out 18 batters in the 11 innings he has thrown in this postseason. The Rays have won 10 of their last 11 games with Glasnow making the start with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He will likely go through the Yankees’ batting order once before giving way to Blake Snell who was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. Snell has a 3.37 ERA in his 10 2/3 innings of work in these playoffs. New York has lost 7 of their last 8 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Yankees have also lost 11 of their last 16 games on the road after playing at least three straight games against an AL East rival. The Yankees counter with Cole who will be making his first-ever career start on just three days of rest after he pitched Game One of this series. While Cole was 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA in the regular season, his ERA rose to a 3.67 mark in his six starts on the road. The sabermetrics also call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.21 and 3.38 respectively. He also has a 3.45 ERA in his 13 innings of postseason work this year. Nothing wrong with an ERA expectation in the mid-3s — but it certainly changes the betting dynamic when looking at his frontline numbers or evaluating him from his spectacular 2019 season with the Houston Astros. The Rays have won 6 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have lost 3 straight playoff games when the series was tied. And Tampa Bay has won 11 of its last 15 games as an underdog. I think this game is closer to being a pick ‘em — so the ability to seize the valuable +1.5 Run-Line (with the home team!) at a price below my -150 threshold presents outstanding value. 25* MLB AL East Run-Line of the Year with the Tampa Bay Rays (934) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (933) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-20 |
Rays v. Yankees OVER 9 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (925) and the New York Yankees (926) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Thompson and Jordan Montgomery in Game Four of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (44-21) took a 2-1 lead in this best-of-five series yesterday with their 8-4 victory in Game Three of this series. New York (36-29) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs — and they have played 24 of their last 36 games after a game where they scored at least eight runs in their last game. Tampa Bay scored seven runs in their Game Two victory on Tuesday — and they have then played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. They turn to Thomson as their opener tonight who is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 26 1/3 innings of work this season — but he sees his ERA and WHIP skyrocket to an 8.49 and 1.80 marks with an opponent’s batting average of .340 in 11 2/3 innings away from home. Ryan Yarbrough will likely then be the bulk pitcher for the Rays in this game — he was 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 55 2/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for Yarbrough with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and 4.37 respectively moving forward. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .371 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .892 over that span. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees have now played five straight Overs — and not only have they then played 29 of their last 43 games away from home Over the Total after playing two straight Overs but they have also played 19 of their last 27 games on the road Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. The Bronx Bombers have also played 4 straight games Over the Total when favored. They counter with Montgomery who is 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in ten starts. But while the left-hander had a 3.71 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in six starts at home, those numbers jump to a 7.27 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in four road starts. New York has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Montgomery pitching when favored in the -125 to -175 price range.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is also swinging hot bats right now — they are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .258 batting average along with a .328 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .787 in those games. 25* MLB AL East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (925) and the New York Yankees (926) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Thompson and Jordan Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-20 |
Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
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At 9:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (919) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zach Davies in Game Two of the National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (46-17) has won seven straight games after their 5-1 victory over the Padres in the opening game of this NLDS yesterday. San Diego (39-25) had won two straight games after dropping the first game of their best-of-three wildcard series with St. Louis. This game will be played on a neutral field at Global Life Field in Arlington, Texas with the Dodgers the designated home team that will bat last.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 55 games after a victory — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while the Dodgers have played four straight Unders, they have then won 26 of their last 33 games after playing at least three straight Unders. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, LA has won 5 of these contests. They give the ball to Kershaw who is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in ten regular season starts. He did his better pitching away from Dodger Stadium this season where he enjoyed a 1.84 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .163 in seven starts. The left-hander was outstanding last Thursday in his start in the wildcard series against the Brewers where he allowed no runs and just three hits in 8 innings of work while striking out 13 batters and walking just one hitter. I am well aware of Kershaw’s struggles in the postseason — we have made a lot of money over the years betting against him (or taking Overs) with his career 4.63 playoff ERA. I think this is an instance where the lack of fans in the stadium is alleviating pressure Kershaw placed on himself when pitching with playoff urgency. His start last Thursday was not only the best start in playoff action in his career but it was also his best start at any time since May 23rd 2016 according his Game Score rating. Kershaw changed his offseason workout program to regain velocity on his fastball while also altering his routine between starts. I think he is primed for another outstanding outing pitching in the Dallas area where he grew up. Kershaw has not allowed more than an earned run in three straight starts — and not only have the Dodgers won 24 of their last 27 games when he was starting after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight games but LA has won 9 of their last 10 games when Kershaw was pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in at least two straight starts. San Diego has lost 21 of their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Padres have also lost 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least four runs. Additionally, San Diego has lost 21 of their last 30 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 straight games after failing to score more than a run in a loss to a divisional rival. Furthermore, the Padres have lost 32 of their last 47 games as an underdog — and they have lost 5 straight playoff games as a dog. They counter with Davies who is 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in twelve regular season starts. I am skeptical of the right-hander due to his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 4.32 and 4.14 moving forward. He struggled in his start last Thursday against the Cardinals in the playoffs where he allowed four earned runs in 2 innings of work. The Brewers may have created the blueprint as to how to handle him — lay off his sinker and other junk pitches that fall out of the strike zone. Patience at the plate is playoff baseball anyways. And the San Diego bullpen is a mess right now. With Mike Clevinger only able to pitch one inning yesterday, the Padres’ pen used eight pitchers for the third straight playoff game after “only” using seven bullpen pitchers in their opening playoff game to the Cardinals. Davies (and this overworked bullpen) faces a Dodgers team that has won 39 of their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. LA is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .255 batting average along with a .325 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .814.
FINAL TAKE: Of course, the team trends mentioned above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. This is the fourteenth straight game where the Dodgers were priced as a favorite above my -150 threshold (where I will not endorse a straight-up money-line play). LA has won ten of these games by more than one run while losing two of the games straight-up and winning just once by just one run. The value with the Dodgers is to lay the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (919) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-07-20 |
Marlins v. Braves OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
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At 2:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (917) and the Atlanta Braves (918) listing both starting pitchers Pablo Lopez and Ian Anderson in Game Two in the National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (38-25) has won three straight games after winning Game One of this series yesterday by a 9-5 score. Miami (33-30) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the loss. This game will be played at Minute Maid Park in Houston with the Braves the technical home team batting last.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 12-4-4 in the Braves’ last 20 games after a victory — and the Over is 17-6-5 in their last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta has also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Additionally, the Braves have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. And in their last 33 games as a favorite, the Over is 20-9-4. They give the ball to Anderson who is with 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in six starts. The deeper metrics are not as bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.82 and 3.45 moving forward. Miami has played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs. The Marlins have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least nine runs in their last game. Additionally, Miami has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. And in their last 7 second games to a new series, the Marlins have played 5 of these games Over the Total. The Miami bullpen surrendered four runs in the final three innings yesterday — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least three earned runs in their last game. They counter with Lopez who was 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. But while the right-hander had a 2.56 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP in five starts at home, those numbers rose to a 4.91 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP in six starts on the road. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last three starts — but the Marlins have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when Lopez is pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in his last two starts. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .272 batting average, .346 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .835. The Over is also 16-6-3 in Miami’s last 25 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has seen the Over go 17-7-3 in their last 27 games against NL East opponents — and the Over is 21-10-2 in Miami’s last 33 games against NL East divisional rivals. 25* MLB Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (917) and the Atlanta Braves (918). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-06-20 |
Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers |
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1-5 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
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At 9:38 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (911) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Walker Buehler in Game One of their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: San Diego (39-24) has won five of their last six games after sweeping St. Louis in two games in their NL wildcard round that culminated with their 4-0 victory over the Cardinals last Friday. Los Angeles (45-17) has won six games in a row after completing their two-game sweep over Milwaukee last Thursday with their 3-0 victory. This game will be played on a neutral site at Global Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Dodgers are the technical home team that will bat last.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego has won 10 of their last 14 games after a win — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They also have won 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Jayce Tingler turns to Clevinger to make the start after some encouraging bullpen outings as he recovers from the elbow strain that has kept him on the shelf since September 23rd which was his last start. The right-hander has a 3-2 record with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts this season. Los Angeles has lost 7 of their last 11 games after winning six games in a row. And while the Dodgers have not allowed more than two runs in three straight games — but they have then lost 12 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than two runs in three straight games. They counter with Buehler who is 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in eight starts. He allowed two runs in just 4 innings of work last Thursday when he started the opening game of their wildcard series against the Brewers. Buehler has a 1.31 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP and .114 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 6.19 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average in four starts away from Dodgers Stadium. He faces a hot-hitting Padres team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games along with a .271 batting average along with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .842 over that span. San Diego has won 21 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These teams played ten times during the regular season with the Dodgers winning the last two meetings on September 15th and 16th. The Padres have won 29 of their last 48 games when motivated by double-revenge. Rather than taking San Diego with the money-line, take the Padres plus the +1.5 Run-Line for some insurance with that option being priced below my -150 threshold. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Run-Line Deal with the San Diego Padres (911) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-06-20 |
Yankees v. Rays -122 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (904) versus the New York Yankees (903) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Deivi Garcia in Game Two of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (42-21) saw their six-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 9-3 loss to the Yankees in the opening game of their ALDS. New York (36-27) has won three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. This game will be played on a neutral field at San Diego’s Petco Park. The Rays are the technical home team who will bat last.
REASONS TO TAKE TAMPA BAY WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Rays should respond with a strong effort as they have won 13 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least four runs. And while the Tampa Bay bullpen gave up five earned runs yesterday, they have then won 5 of their last 6 games after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four earned runs. The Rays have also won 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And this remains a team that has won 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season. The tall right-hander registered 92 strikeouts in just 57 1/3 innings of work. The sabermetrics are bullish on Glasnow with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.75 moving forward. He was more effective away from home where he had a 3.45 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in six starts. He was very good in Game One of the AL Wildcard round where he allowed two runs in 6 innings of work against Milwaukee on September 30th. His teams have won 12 straight games when he was pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. The Yankees were favored yesterday with Gerrit Cole on the hill but are underdogs tonight — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games as a money-line underdog. New York has also lost 20 of their last 26 playoff games as an underdog. They counter with Deivi Garcia who is 3-2 with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in six starts spanning 34 1/3 innings. The rookie did his best pitching at home at Yankee Stadium where he had a 3.20 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 — but those numbers rise to a 7.36 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .290 opponent’s batting average of .290 in his 14 2/3 innings of work pitching on the road. He faces a Tampa Bay team that has won 32 of their last 45 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have lost 11 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range — and the Rays have won 12 of their last 15 games when priced in that +/- 125 range. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (904) versus the New York Yankees (903) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Deivi Garcia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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