10-02-20 |
Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (977) and the San Diego Padres (978) (action — do not list starting pitchers). THE SITUATION: San Diego (38-24) forced a climactic third game in this series yesterday with their 11-9 victory over the Cardinals. St. Louis (31-29) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday by a 7-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have now won four of their last five games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games at home Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. San Diego has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least eight runs — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a game where they allowed at least nine runs. Furthermore, the Under is 5-1-1 in the Padres last 7 games both against teams with a winning record and at home hosting a team with a winning record. Manager Jayce Tingler has not announced a starting pitcher — and it just doesn’t matter as this will be a bullpen game before it is over. Likely candidate one to start the game is Adrian Morejon with his 2-2 record along with a 4.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings consisting of nine appearances with four starts. Morejon sees his ERA rise to a 7.59 mark with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in his 10 2/3 innings at home. Both his SIERA and xFIP scream to fade this guy with those analytics projecting an ERA of 8.10 and 7.53 moving forward based on his deeper peripheral numbers. Garrett Richards is candidate two to start the 1st inning as was in the rotation to start the season before being moved to the bullpen in anticipation of the playoffs. Richards has a 2-2 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 51 1/3 innings this summer. His SIERA and xFIP assess he has been overachieving with their 4.55 and 4.46 ERA projections. Even worse, Richards has a 5.85 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in 20 innings at home. Tingler will have to rely on a tired bullpen sooner rather than later in this game. After using seven relievers in Game One, Tingler went to the mound to change pitchers eight times yesterday. Six of his relievers have pitched in both games. Overall, the San Diego bullpen has logged in 13 2/3 innings of work after the 6 innings they logged-in yesterday. The Padres have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched at least six innings. The San Diego bullpen already has a 4.66 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP for day games (and the lights will be off for most of this game on the west coast). St. Louis’ bullpen has pitched 15 innings over their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after having their bullpen pitch at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. The Cardinals have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Flaherty who is 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in nine starts this season. But while the right-hander has a 2.67 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 at home, he is burdened with a 9.45 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. St. Louis has played 10 of their last 12 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog — and the Over is 17-6-1 in their last 24 games in the playoffs on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have scored 21 runs with a minimum of five runners players over their last three games. San Diego has scored 32 run overs over their last five games with a minimum of four runs scored in each game. UPDATE: Craig Stammen has been named the opening starting pitcher for the Padres with his 5.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The Over remains strong — but let’s go with action rather than listing the starting pitchers, I don’t want anything messing this play up since the bet is, in part, against, all the available options for Tingler. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (977) and the San Diego Padres (978) (action — do not list starting pitchers given the uncertainty with the Padres and because it just doesn’t matter). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-20 |
White Sox v. A's +101 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
101 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (964) versus the Chicago White Sox (963) listen both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Dane Dunning in Game Three of their American League Wildcard Playoff Series. THE SITUATION: Oakland (37-25) evened this series at 1-1 yesterday with their 5-3 victory over the White Sox. Chicago (36-26) has now lost eight of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has now won 19 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. The A’s have not surrendered more than four runs in three straight games — and they have then won 26 of their last 35 home games after not allowing more than four runs in their last three games. And while Oakland only stranded three runners yesterday as they struggled with getting players on base after the 1st inning, they have then won 6 of their last 8 games after stranding five or fewer batters in their last game. Manager Bob Melvin has decided this morning to give the ball to Fiers to be his starter — and this gives the A’s a number of advantages. First, he wanted to avoid sending out another left-hander with Sean Manaea his consideration after the White Sox won their fifteenth straight game against a left-handed starting pitcher on Tuesday against their Jesus Luzardo. Fiers is 6-3 with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this season — but Oakland has won 16 of their last 20 home games with him making the start. The right-hander is also pitching on six days rest after scattering two runs in 5 innings of work in his last start on the road against the Dodgers last Friday. The A’s have won 14 of their last 16 home games with Fiers pitching with five or six days of rest. Fiers is nothing if not consistent — he has not allowed more than three earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The White Sox have lost 8 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. Melvin will have a quick hook as soon as Fiers gets into trouble — he can then turn to Manaea to face the lefties in the White Sox starting lineup. Manaea is 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season — but he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to a 3.91 and 0.95 WHIP in his 25 1/3 innings at home. Melvin can also turn to Frankie Montas for bulk inning work who has a has a 2.56 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in 31 2/3 innings of work when pitching at home this season. Chicago has now lost 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The White Sox have also lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog. They counter with Dunning who is 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in seven starts since being called up from their alternate training facility. But the book may be started to be written on the rookie who has been hit hard of nine runs (eight earned) along with nine hits in the seven innings of work he has completed in his last two starts. And while Dunning has a 3.72 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .162 at home, he sees his ERA rise to a 4.30 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in his three road starts.
FINAL TAKE: While the White Sox are playing in their first postseason since 2008, the A’s have plenty of recent experience in the playoffs but have yet to get over the hump to advance to the next round. This experience along with perhaps the best bullpen in baseball (their 3.53 bullpen ERA was the best in MLB in the regular season) should make the difference for them to finally win another playoff series. 25* MLB American League Wildcard Game of the Year with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (964) versus the Chicago White Sox (963) listen both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Dane Dunning. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-20 |
Yankees v. Indians +1.5 |
Top |
10-9 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (940) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (939) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka in Game Two of their American League Wildcard Playoff Series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (35-26) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing the opening game of this best-of-three series to the Yankees by a 12-3 score. New York (34-27) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: We had Cleveland last night — but the Bronx Bombers got to Shane Bieber early and often in that game. I remain wary of this Yankees team that is still only 13-18 away from Yankee Stadium where they are 21-9 this season. New York scores only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .226 batting average along with a .315 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .680. The Yankees have lost 15 of their last 22 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. This is also a team that has lost 12 of their last 17 road games in the playoffs. Furthermore, New York has lost 11 of their last 17 road games after a win by at least six runs. And this was the first time that Aaron Boone’s team has won a game against a team with a winning record in their last five games. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 3-3 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.07 and 4.19 moving forward. Tanaka does have four starts on the road where he has a 2.33 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP this season — but I am not dismissing the ugly 6.05 ERA he had in fifteen starts (sixteen games) on the road last year along with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287. The Yankees have lost 4 straight road games with Tanaka on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has won 5 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. While Cleveland has lost two of their last three games, they also have won seven of their last nine games overall — and they have won 8 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games. The Indians have also won 9 of their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series. Cleveland has still won 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Carrasco who is 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been lights out over his last six starts where he owns a 1.66 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: The Indians have won 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least ten runs. Lastly, while these team trends do not even take into account the +1.5 Run-Line I am advocating for with this play, because the Yankees’ bullpen has blow 39.5% of their save opportunities this season, Cleveland is supported by an empirical Run-Line angle that has been 67% effective over the last five seasons. New York averages 5.4 Runs-Per-Game — and teams who score at least 5.1 Runs-Per-Game but whose bullpen blow at least 38% of their save opportunities now facing an American League team using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 45 of these last 67 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the Cleveland Indians (940) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (939) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-20 |
Blue Jays v. Rays -130 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (944) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (943) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Hyun-Jin Ryu in Game Two of their American League Wildcard Playoff Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (41-20) has won five straight games as well as ten of their last twelve contests with their 3-1 victory yesterday in the opening game of this best-of-three series. Toronto (32-29) has two straight games as well as nine of their last fifteen games as they hope to stave off elimination this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 13 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Rays have also won a dominant 39 of their last 51 games at home in Tropicana Field — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set at 7 or lower. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven starts. The laptops love the right-hander — and the attraction starts with his 92 strikeouts to just 22 walks in 57 1/3 innings of work. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.04 and 2.75 moving forward. He should have success against a Blue Jays team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. He will also be supported by an outstanding bullpen that has a 2.27 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP at home. The foursome of Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbank, Chaz Roe, and Diego Castillo has combined for a 1.95 ERA with a 32% punch out rate. If the Rays get a lead, they are very tough to beat. Toronto has lost 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have lost 18 of their last 26 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Blue Jays have also lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 20 of their last 26 road games with the Total set from 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Ryu who is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in twelve starts. The lefty sees his ERA rise to a 3.16 mark in his seven starts on the road. The sabermetrics also call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting ERA of 3.67 and 3.32 moving forward. Ryu also has a sketchy track record in the playoffs in his time with the Dodgers when he was not burdened with the pressure of being the team’s ace. Ryu has a 5.12 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in eight starts spanning just 31 2/3 innings in the postseason.
FINAL TAKE: Ryu’s teams have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with him on the mound priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The Rays have won 9 of their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers. With the price for this game below my -150 threshold, let’s attack. 25* MLB TBS-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (944) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (943) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-20 |
White Sox v. A's -130 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (946) versus the Chicago White Sox (945) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Dallas Keuchel in Game Two of their American League Wildcard Playoff Series. THE SITUATION: Oakland (36-25) lost the opening game of this best-of-three series by a 4-1 score yesterday. Chicago (36-25) has still lost seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland should respond with a big effort this afternoon as they have won 42 of their last 58 games after a loss — and they have also won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring no more than one run in their last game. The A’s have still won 18 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Bassitt who is 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander did his best pitching at home in Oakland Coliseum where he has a 0.72 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in six starts. The A’s have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Bassitt pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. Oakland has also won 6 straight games in September with Bassitt on the bump. He comes off a strong outing where he pitched seven scoreless innings at home to Seattle last Friday — and the A’s have played 9 of their last 12 games with Bassitt following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces a White Sox team that is only scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .275 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .659 during that span. Chicago has lost 7 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, the White Sox have lost 4 straight games after a win. Furthermore, Chicago has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 6 straight games as an underdog. They counter with Keuchel who is 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .109. And while he allowed only one earned run in 20 innings this month, his SIERA and xFIP still project an ERA of 3.74 and 3.54 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 46 of their last 61 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 20* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (946) versus the Chicago White Sox (945) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-20 |
Yankees v. Indians -102 |
Top |
12-3 |
Loss |
-102 |
16 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (932) versus the New York Yankees (931) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito in Game One of their American League Wild Card Series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (35-25) enters the playoffs having won seven of their last eight games after their 8-6 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday. New York (33-27) has lost four of their last five games as well as seven of their last nine contests with their 5-0 loss to Miami on Sunday. The Indians will be the home team for this best-of-three series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland is peaking at the right time in this abbreviated season — and they have won 22 of their last 34 games after a victory. The Indians have also won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 8 runs in their last game. As the higher 4th seed in this bracket matchup, Cleveland hosts this series where they have won 8 of their last 10 home games when priced as a favorite up to -150. They give the ball to Bieber who is 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander had an incredible 122 strikeouts in his 77 1/3 innings — and he saw his ERA drop to a 1.23 mark in his four starts at home. He comes off five scoreless innings of work in his last start at home against the White Sox last Wednesday — and the Indians have won 10 of their last 12 games when Bieber is following a start where he did not allow an earned run. Cleveland has also won 9 of their last 11 games with Bieber pitching at night. New York has lost 18 of their last 27 games after a loss — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 games after a loss by at least four runs. The Yankees have also lost 10 of their last 13 road games after losing three of their last four games — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 road games in September. They counter with Cole who is 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twelve starts. But while the right-hander has a 2.09 ERA at home in six starts, his ERA on the road rose to a 3.67 mark. His teams have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Cole pitching with the Total set at 7 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: While the Yankees were 19-9 at Yankee Stadium during the regular season, they were just 12-18 on the road while scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game with a batting average of .220 along with a .311 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 661. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (932) versus the New York Yankees (931) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-20 |
White Sox v. A's UNDER 7.5 |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
105 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (937) and the Oakland A’s (938) listing both starting pitchers Luca Giolito and Jesus Luzardo in Game One of their American League Wildcard Playoff Series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (35-25) has lost seven of their last eight games after losing at home to the Cubs on Sunday by a 10-8 score. Oakland (36-24) has lost five of their last eight games after they ended the regular season with a 6-2 victory against Seattle. With the A’s as the 2nd seed in the AL, they will host for all the games in the best-of-three series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an off-day. Chicago averages only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game in their thirty road games this season with a .220 batting average along with a .311 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661. The Under is 7-3-1 in the White Sox’s last 11 games on the road — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games when favored. They give the ball to Giolito who is 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 2.79 along with a WHIP of 1.03 in five starts. Chicago has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Giolito pitching with the price in the +/- 125 range. Oakland has played 4 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. They also have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after an off-day. The A’s host this series where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and the Under is 21-6-1 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 16-5-1 in their last 22 games as an underdog. They counter with Luzardo who is 3-2 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 59 innings this season in twelve games with nine starts. The right-hander does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.40 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in 41 1/3 innings. Luzardo was impressive in last year’s Wildcard Playoff game where he allowed only one hit and no earned runs in three innings of relief work against Tampa Bay.
FINAL TAKE: Luzardo should pitch well against this White Sox team that is scoring only 4.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .286 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .640. Yet the A’s are scoring just 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 batting average along with a .306 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .704. 10* MLB Tuesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (937) and the Oakland A’s (938) listing both starting pitchers Luca Giolito and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-20 |
Twins v. Cubs -146 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-146 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (972) with the money-line versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Chicago (31-21) saw their five-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 8-1 loss to the Twins in Game Two of this series. Minnesota (32-22) had lost four of their last five games before yesterday’s victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has rebounded to win 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cubs have still won 5 of their last 7 games at home as the favorite — and they have won 19 of their last 26 home games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. Chicago has also won 24 of their last 33 games at Wrigley Field against American League teams. They give the ball to Darvish who is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in ten starts. Darvish has not allowed more than three earned runs in all ten starts this season. The right-hander has been very tough at home where he owns a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in eight starts as compared to his 1.15 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average on the road. Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 home games with Darvish pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games with Darvish pitching at night. He faces a slumping Twins team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a batting average of .211 along with a .290 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .721. Minnesota has lost 8 of their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have also lost 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Additionally, Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They counter with Berrios who is 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.67 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .168 in five starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.76 ERA with a 1.72 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .311 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Twins have lost 8 straight road games with Berrios pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (972) with the money-line versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-20 |
Twins v. White Sox -144 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-144 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jake Odorizzi. THE SITUATION: Chicago (32-16) has won six straight games as well as ten of their last eleven contests after their 6-2 victory over the Twins in the second game of this series. Minnesota (30-20) finds themselves trailing the White Sox by three games in AL Central after dropping the first two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 23 of their last 30 games after a win — and they have won 20 of their last 28 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. The White Sox have also won 14 of their last 16 games when playing at home. They give the ball to Giolito who is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper analytics indicate just how strong a season the right-hander is enjoying with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.40 and 3.19 respectively. Chicago has won 9 of their last 14 home games with Giolito on the hill pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should have success against this Twins team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has lost 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Twins have also lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Odorizzi who is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 10 innings of work before he hit the disabled list after suffering a chest contusion in early August. The right-hander was 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirty starts. The analytics were not as bullish with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.14 and 4.33 respectively. Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 11 road games with Odorizzi pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago is tearing the leather off the baseball right now as they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .311 batting average along with a .364 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .841 during that span. The White Sox have won 6 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jake Odorizzi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-20 |
Twins v. White Sox +1.5 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (960) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (959) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Chicago (30-16) has won four straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 5-2 win over Detroit yesterday. Minnesota (30-18) has won three straight games of their own with their 7-5 victory over Cleveland.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago is on fire having won twenty of their last twenty-five games while outscoring their opponents by a 164 to 79 margin in those games. They have won 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The White Sox have also won 12 of their last 13 games at home. They give the ball to Cease who is 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander is not being given a lot of respect because he has only struck out 30 batters in 46 innings. But he does also have a 1.72 ERA with a .163 opponent’s batting average in his three home starts this year. Chicago has won 9 of their 13 games with Cease pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. He faces a Twins team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. While Minnesota is 20-5 at home this season, they are just 10-13 on the road. The Twins have lost 6 of their last 9 games away from home — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. Minnesota has also lost 5 of their last 7 road games when favored. They counter with Berrios who is 4-3 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.75 ERA along with a 1.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .317 as compared to his 2.67 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .168 opponent’s batting average in five starts at home. The Twins have lost 12 of their last 18 road games with Berrios pitching with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. He faces a White Sox team that has won 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Chicago is averaging 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .294 batting average along with a .350 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .831 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox has lost their last two games against the Twins after losing by 3-2 score then an 8-1 score on the first two days of the month. Chicago has won 4 straight games when playing with double-revenge. The White Sox are also supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 65% effective since 1997. Teams playing with double-revenge with a winning percentage of 62% or better facing a team with a winning record have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 62 of the last 95 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB AL Central Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (960) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (959) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-29-20 |
Twins -148 v. Tigers |
|
2-8 |
Loss |
-148 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (961) versus the Detroit Tigers (962) listing both starting pitchers Randy Dobnak and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (20-12) has lost two straight games after their 6-3 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. Detroit (13-16) has won their last two games after they defeated the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday with their 7-6 victory. With this being the opening game of a doubleheader today, this game will only be seven innings.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota should respond with a strong effort as they have won 19 of their last 26 games after losing two of their last three games. They also have won 5 of their last 6 opening games to a doubleheader. Additionally, the Twins have won 45 of their last 63 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Dobnak who is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in six starts. The 25-year old right-hander has been rock solid on the road where he owns a 1.80 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP in four starts. Dobnak was 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings of work last season — and he had a 0.56 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in 16 innings on the road. He comes off a good effort last Saturday where he allowed only two runs in 5 innings of work at Kansas City. Dobnak has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start all season — and Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games with Dobnak starting after not allowing more than two earned runs in at least two straight games. He faces a Tigers team that has lost 39 of their last 54 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Detroit has lost 26 of their last 33 games at home after a win. The Tigers have also lost 40 of their last 53 opening games to a doubleheader. Additionally, Detroit has lost 9 of their last 10 home games with the total set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have lost 58 of their last 72 home games as an underdog. They counter with Boyd who is 0-4 with an 8.48 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in six starts. He does come off his best performance of the season where he allowed just two runs in 5 1/3 innings of work at Cleveland last Saturday. But Boyd returns home to Detroit where he has a 10.24 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP in two starts this season. Boyd gives up too many gopher balls — he has already surrendered eight this season in just 28 2/3 innings of work. The lefty is too predictable with just a fastball and slider and lacking a fairly reliable third pitch. After a strong start last year, he was exposed in the second half where he was saddled with a 5.51 ERA along with a 1.38 WHIP. The Tigers have lost 5 straight games in August with Boyd on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is averaging a healthy 5.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 20* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (961) versus the Detroit Tigers (962) listing both starting pitchers Randy Dobnak and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-28-20 |
Mariners v. Angels OVER 9 |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (927) and the Los Angeles Angels (928) listing both starting pitchers Nick Margevicius and Andrew Heaney. THE SITUATION: Seattle (13-20) has won five of their last six games with their 8-3 win at San Diego yesterday. Los Angeles (10-22) snapped a three-game losing streak in the second game of a doubleheader at Houston on Tuesday with a 12-5 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 22 of their last 31 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range — and the Over is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games on the road with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. They give the ball to Margevicius who is 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.02 WHIUP in three starts and six overall appearances spanning 19 2/3 innings. He last pitched a week last Friday when he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings of work against Texas — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Margevicius with five or six days of rest. The left-handed was just 2-6 last year with a 6.79 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in 57 innings of work — and he saw his ERA rise to a 7.03 ERA in his 24 1/3 innings on the road. He faces an Angels team that has played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Los Angeles has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Angels finally get back on the field after hurricanes and player strikes regarding the events in Wisconsin postponed their games since Tuesday. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Angels have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing at home. The Over is also 8-2-1 in LA’s last 11 games with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. They counter with Heaney who is 1-2 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in six starts this season. The lefty was 4-6 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP last season — and he was less effective at home where he owned a 4.92 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .281.
FINAL TAKE: Heaney faces a hot-hitting Mariners team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .276 batting average along with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .813. Seattle has played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (927) and the Los Angeles Angels (928) listing both starting pitchers Nick Margevicius and Andrew Heaney. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-28-20 |
Mets v. Yankees -123 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: The New York Yankees (16-11) looks to stop a five-game losing streak after losing by a 2-1 score to Atlanta on Wednesday. The New York Mets (13-16) snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday with a 5-4 victory over Miami. This is the first game of a double-header — so this will be a seven-inning game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York is dealing with some injuries with both Giancarlo Stanton and now Aaron Judge on the disabled list. But the Yankees have also faced tough competition during their losing streak with games against the Braves and Tampa Bay Rays. The Bronx Bombers have won 10 of their last 11 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Yankees have also won 48 of their last 62 games at home after a loss. The Yankees’ bullpen let them down in Atlanta as they allowed two runs in the bottom of the 6th inning in the second game of their double-header with the Braves to ruin their 1-0 lead. The Yankees have then won 36 of their last 44 games after a game where they blew a save. Additionally, the Yankees return home where they have won 36 of their last 51 home games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 49 of their last 72 home games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Yankees have also won 30 of their last 40 games when the favorite at a price no higher than -150. They give the ball to Montgomery who is 2-1 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in four starts. He comes off a solid outing against Boston where he allowed only one run in 3 2/3 innings of work before a rain delay ended his workday. The left-hander pitches better at home where he owns a 2-0 record with a 2.93 ERA along with a 0.91 WHIP in three starts. His last full season was back in 2017 before Tommy John surgery interrupted his 2018 campaign from which he returned late last season. In that 2017 season, Montgomery had a 3.43 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in fifteen starts as compared to his 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .241 opponent’s batting average in fourteen road starts. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 7 home games with Montgomery pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a Mets team scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game in their eleven games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have lost 6 of their last 7 games against left-handed starters — and they have also lost 8 of their last 11 road games against left-handed starters. The Mets have lost 36 of their last 51 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 9 straight games as an underdog priced up to +150. They counter with Wacha who is coming off the disabled list after a 1-2 record in his start with the Mets along with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. The right-hander was 6-7 with the Cardinals last year with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. He saw his ERA and WHIP rise to a 5.30 and 1.67 marks when pitching on the road where opposing hitters batted .299 against him.
FINAL TAKE: Wacha faces a Yankee team that is 10-4 at home this year while averaging 6.3 Runs-Per-Game along with a .271 batting average, .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .883. Even with their injuries, the Yankees still have plenty of punch in their lineup. 20* MLB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Yankees (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-23-20 |
Phillies v. Braves -105 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (978) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (977) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Zach Eflin. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (16-11) has won the opening two games of this series after their 6-5 victory over the Phillies yesterday. Philadelphia (9-14) has lost their last five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta won Friday’s game by an 11-2 score — and they have won 20 of their last 25 games after playing their last two games Over the Total. The Braves have also won 14 of their last 16 games as a money-line favorite priced at least at -110. Atlanta is a dominant 10-3 at home this season while scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average along with a .356 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .821. They give the ball to Tomlin who is 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 15 1/3 innings this season. Tomlin will serve as the opener who will not be asked to pitch through the Philly lineup more than twice. He will be supported by a Braves bullpen that has a 3.12 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP when pitching at home this season. Tomlin faces a Phillies team that has lost 9 of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 8 of their last 12 games after a loss. They give the ball to Eflin who is 0-1 with 5.14 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in three starts this season. Eflin was 10-13 last year with a 4.13 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in twenty-eight games (thirty-two games) — but he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.26 and 1.40 marks in fifteen starts (seventeen games) on the road. The Phillies have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Elfin pitching priced in the +/- 125 range.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has lost 12 of their last 16 games played in Atlanta’s Sun Trust Park against the Braves. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (978) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (977) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Zach Eflin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-16-20 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 10 |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (929) and the New York Yankees (930) listing both starting pitchers Chris Mazza and J.A. Happ. THE SITUATION: Boston (6-15) has lost six straight games after dropping the second game of this series yesterday by an 11-5 score. New York (14-6) has now won four straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a loss. Additionally, the Over is 3-0-1 in Boston’s last 4 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 5-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. They called up Mazza from their alternative training facility after he pitched 2 2/3 inning for the team early in the season. The right-hander was with the Mets last season where he was 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in nine appearances spanning 16 1/3 innings. Mazza won’t get much support from the Red Sox bullpen which has a 5.44 ERA along with a 1.55 WHIP this season. He faces this mighty Yankees lineup who is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game in their nine games at home with a Ted Williams-like .301 batting average (in this swing for the fences era) along with a .384 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .958. New York has seen the Over go 5-0-2 in their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 5-0-2 in New York’s last 7 games after a win. The Over is also 5-0-2 in the Yankees’ last 7 home games when favored — and the Over is 17-6-3 in their last 26 games when facing a team with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Happ who is 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP in two starts. He was roughed up in his last appearance where he allowed four runs in just 3 innings of work at Philadelphia. The left-hander was 12-8 last year with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP — but he was not as effective at home in Yankee Stadium where he was burdened with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in sixteen starts with opposing batters hitting .286 against him. The writing was on the wall for him when manager Aaron Boone barely used him in the postseason. He faces a Red Sox team that does hit lefties — they are averaging 5.4 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers while posting a .289 batting average along with a .330 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .800. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Sox have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total on the road when avenging a loss where they allowed at least six runs. And while Boston has now lost eight straight games to their arch-rivals in the Yankees, they have played 23 of their last 29 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from at least five straight losses to their opponent. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (929) and the New York Yankees (930) listing both starting pitchers Chris Mazza and J.A. Happ. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-20 |
White Sox -126 v. Tigers |
|
7-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (901) versus the Detroit Tigers (902) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Chicago (9-9) snapped a three-game losing streak last night by defeating the Tigers in the opening game of this series by an 8-4 score. Detroit (9-6) had been on a four-game winning streak before their loss last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Tigers began this series 13th in MLB in runs scored — but 28 of their runs this season came in a two-day stretch against the Pirates last Thursday and Friday. Despite their surprising start this season, Detroit has now a flat net run differential of 0 after yesterday’s game — and they have a -10 net run differential when removing that 48-hour period last week in Pittsburgh. The Tigers have lost 70 of their last 99 games after a loss. They also have lost 53 of their last 65 games at home — and they have lost 26 of their last 36 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Boyd who is 0-1 with a 9.20 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP this season. He comes off a disappointing start last Thursday in Pittsburgh where he allowed 7 runs in 4 2/3 innings of work but was bailed out by Detroit scoring 17 runs. Boyd was 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP last season where he enjoyed a spectacular start but struggled after the All-Star Break with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The left-hander is a fly ball pitcher who surrenders too many home runs, especially in the juiced ball era. I worry about his decline in effectiveness since he tends to be too predictable with only a fastball and slider. He needs a third pitch — and it appears opposing batters have figured him out. He faces a White Sox team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their three games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have won 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starters — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starters with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have also won 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have won 15 of their last 21 road games when favored. Additionally, Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They counter with Cease who is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He pitched 5 shutout innings in his last start last Thursday against Cleveland. Cease was hitting 100 MPH with his fastball last week which makes his curveball even more devastating since its spin mimics his four-seamer. The right-hander was more effective on the road last year where he had a 4.89 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in seven starts as compared to his 6.82 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, and .299 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The White Sox have won 6 of their last 9 games with Cease pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. He should find success against this Tigers team that has lost 46 of their last 55 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Cease had a 3.33 ERA in three starts against Detroit last season while Boyd has a 4-6 record with a 4.56 ERA in fourteen career starts against the White Sox. Chicago has now won 11 of their last 16 games against the Tigers. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (901) versus the Detroit Tigers (902) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-20 |
Braves v. Yankees -135 |
|
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (956) versus the Atlanta Braves (955) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Touki Toussaint. THE SITUATION: New York (10-6) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 4-3 loss at Tampa Bay on Sunday. Atlanta (11-7) got crushed by Philadelphia last night by a 13-8 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has bounced back to win 23 of their last 28 games after a loss — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. The Yankees had four tough games with a very good Rays team which accounts for three of their losses during their recent stretch. That lost series at home with the Phillies has meant that they have played just five games at home. But now after a six-game road stand, New York returns home where they have won 42 of their last 56 games — and they have won 41 of their last 51 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. The Yankees have won 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have won 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Montgomery who is 1-0 with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in two starts after a disappointing effort where he allowed five runs in 4 innings of work at Philadelphia last Thursday. Montgomery pitched well in his first start as well as in the spring (and summer) training sessions after recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2018. In his rookie year in 2017, the left-hander was 9-7 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in twenty-nine starts — and he had a 3.43 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in fifteen starts at home that year. New York has won 4 of their last 5 home games with Montgomery pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He should pitch well against a Braves team that struggles against left-handed pitching — they are scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game in their four games against lefty starters with a .175 batting average along with a .250 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .578 in those games. Atlanta has lost 20 of their last 29 road games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 5 straight games as an underdog. The Braves have also lost 6 of their last 8 opening games to a new series. They counter with Touissant who is 0-0 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in two starts this season. He comes off a better second start where he allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings of work at home against Toronto last Thursday. The right-hander was 4-0 with a 5.62 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in 41 2/3 innings last year — but he was saddled with a 7.45 ERA with a 1.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in 19 1/3 innings on the road. This is just his ninth career start — he has a 4.62 ERA as a starting pitcher. He faces a Bronx Bombers group that averages 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their five home games with a .291 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .931. New York has won 43 of their last 53 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees opened as a money-line favorite priced in the -170 range before dropping to the -140s (and below my -150 price threshold). Perhaps bettors are overreacting to the injury of Giancarlo Stanton? Four games with the Rays and over 2/3rds of their games on the road have skewed the market’s perceptions. The market was also trending for Susan Rice to be Joe Biden’s Vice Presidential choice late last night. Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 meetings with New York — expect another loss tonight. 10* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Yankees (956) versus the Atlanta Braves (955) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Touki Toussaint. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-20 |
Diamondbacks v. Rockies -125 |
|
12-8 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (914) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (913) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Robbie Ray. THE SITUATION: Colorado (11-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 5-3 loss at Seattle yesterday. Arizona (6-10) has lost two of their last three games with their 9-5 loss at San Diego yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have won 4 straight games after a loss — and they have lost 5 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Rockies have also won 7 straight games after winning two of their last three games. Furthermore, Colorado has won 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. They give the ball to Gray who is 0-1 with a 3.31 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP so far this season. He comes off allowing three runs in 6 innings of work against San Francisco last Wednesday. The right-hander was more effective at home where he had a 3.46 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP in thirteen games (12 starts) as opposed to his 4.22 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP in thirteen starts on the road. The Rockies have won 18 of their last 27 home games with Gray pitching with the Total set at 11 or higher. I do worry about Gray’s velocity drop this season (about two MPH lower than his optimal mark of 96 MPH — this is keeping me from grading this play higher) — but he faces a Diamondbacks team that has lost 10 of their last 14 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Arizona is averaging just 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their nine road games this season with a .185 batting average along with a .252 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .545. The Diamondbacks have lost 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series. Arizona has also lost 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog. They counter with Ray who is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP this season after getting crushed for 6 runs in 5 innings of work. Ray was less effective on the road last year where he had a 4.50 ERA in twenty starts as opposed to his 4.11 ERA in thirteen starts at home. The Diamondbacks have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Ray pitching with the Total set at 11 or higher. He faces a hot-hitting Rockies team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their seven home games this season with a .293 batting average, .347 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .808. Colorado has won 7 of their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. And the Rockies have won 5 of their last 6 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 6 of their last 8 games in Colorado against the Rockies. Reservations about Gray’s four-seam fastball velocity aside, the Rockies remain worthy of an investment (while I continue to monitor his velocity tonight and moving forward). 10* MLB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (914) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (913) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Robbie Ray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-20 |
Braves v. Phillies -140 |
|
8-13 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (902) versus the Atlanta Braves (901) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (4-6) looks to bounce back from getting swept in the double-header between these two teams yesterday. Atlanta (11-6) won the second and third games of this series yesterday by 5-2 and 8-0 scores.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has rebounded to win 21 of their last 29 home games after a loss by at least four runs. And while the Phillies’ bullpen surrendered four runs in that game, they have then won 15 of their last 19 home games after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four runs in their last game. Philadelphia is struggling to gets their bats going as they have a .190 batting average in their three games in this series. But they have then won 15 of their last 18 home games after not hitting better than .200 in their last three games. They give the ball to Nola who is 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP in two starts after allowing just one run in 6 innings of work at home against the Yankees last Wednesday. The right-hander was more effective at home last season where he had a 2.91 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in nineteen starts as compared to his 5.19 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .252 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Phillies have won 24 of their last 36 home games with Nola pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a Braves team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has lost 9 of their last 12 games after a win by at least 8 runs against an NL East rival. And while the Braves banged out 14 hits in the nightcap yesterday, they have then lost 7 of their last 8 games after generating at least 10 hits in their last game. Furthermore, Atlanta has lost 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog. They counter with Newcomb who is 0-1 with a 6.51 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in three starts. The left-hander comes off a lackluster effort at home where he allowed two runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Newcomb was 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP last season but he did his best working pitching out of the bullpen. Additionally, he was much better at home where he owned a 2.14 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .193 as opposed to his 4.78 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and .294 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Braves have lost 14 of their last 20 games with Newcomb pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. The Phillies do hit left-handed pitching quite well. They are averaging 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their four games against lefty starters so far this season with a .254 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .850. Philadelphia has won 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have won 15 of their last 20 games when avenging two straight losses at home to their opponent. 10* MLB Atlanta-Philadelphia FS1-TV Special with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (902) versus the Atlanta Braves (901) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-08-20 |
Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (6-9) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after losing the opening game of this series last night by a 7-2 score. Los Angeles (10-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 2-0-2 in the Giants’ last 4 games after a loss. This is San Francisco’s sixth straight game against an NL West rival — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing two in a row to a divisional foe. Furthermore, the Under is 5-0-2 in the Giants’ last 7 road games as an underdog — and San Fran has played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced at +250 or higher. They give the ball to Cueto who comes off a solid outing at Coors Field where he allowed only two earned runs in 5 innings of work on Tuesday. The right-hander has a 0-0 record with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in three starts this season. While he has been limited by Tommy John surgery over the last few seasons, the savvy veteran still has a few tricks up his sleeve. He also has consistently been more effective when pitching on the road. Since 2017, Cueto has a 3.82 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP in 106 innings on the road with 107 strikeouts. His teams have played 12 of their last 18 road games Under the Total with him pitching as a big underdog priced at least at +150. He faces a Dodgers’ lineup that is hitting just .232 in ten games against right-handed starting pitchers this season with a .288 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .762. The Under is 8-3-2 in Los Angeles’ last 13 games after a win — and the Under is 9-2-2 in their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 5-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite. They counter with Kershaw who threw 5 2/3 shutout innings in his first start of the season on Monday at Arizona. The left-hander was 16-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP last season — and he saw his ERA lower to a 2.89 mark in his sixteen starts at home. He should enjoy another strong outing against this Giants team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 batting average, .276 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .632 this season. The Under is also 4-0-1 in San Francisco’s last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Expect another lower-scoring game. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank
|
08-02-20 |
Astros -138 v. Angels |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (923) versus the Los Angeles Angels (924) listing both starting pitchers Josh James and Shohei Ohtani. THE SITUATION: Houston (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after a 5-4 loss in Loss Angeles to the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (3-6) snapped a three-game losing streak with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston should bounce-back with a strong effort this afternoon. The Astros have won 14 of their last 20 games after a loss. Additionally, Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have won 41 of their last 57 games against teams who do not have a winning percentage better than 40%. Furthermore, the Astros have won 23 of their last 34 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games on the road with the Over/Under in that range. They give the ball to James who allowed three runs in 3 innings of work in his first start of the season last Tuesday at home against Seattle. The right-hander was 5-1 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 61 1/3 innings of work. James did flash his dynamic strikeout abilities against the Mariners as he struck out five of their batters in just those 3 innings of work. James punched out a whopping 100 batters last season in just over those 61 innings with a spectacular 16.2% swinging-strike rate. He walked too many batters last season but he did drop that rate to 8.8% of the batters he faced in the second half of the season. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging for James with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.33 and 3.77 from his peripheral numbers last year. He was also more effective on the road where he sported a 2.73 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .121 in 29 2/3 innings of work as compared to his 6.54 ERA along with a 1.67 WHIP when pitching at home in Minute Maid Park. James also enjoyed a 2.20 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings during day games last season. While he is unlikely to pitch more than 5 innings in this game, he will be supported by a strong Astros bullpen that has a 2.56 ERA in 38 2/3 innings of work. Los Angeles has lost 17 of their last 21 games after a win — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Angels have lost 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. And LA has not only lost 6 of their last 8 games at home but they have lost 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. They counter with Ohtani who is intriguing to bettors given his dual abilities as a batter along with his 3.31 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in ten starts back in 2018 before he had Tommy John surgery. But Ohtani did not register an out in his first start on Monday in Oakland where he walked three and gave up three base hits which produced five runs. Rumors persisted last month that Ohtani was struggling with his control — we know about sixteen walks in three of his scrimmages. He threw only 15 strikes in his 30 pitches with his velocity down 4 MPH from his fastball speed in 2018. Ohtani looks a long way off — and his duties as a regular hitter in the Angels’ lineup is probably not helping his development as a pitcher. He faces an Astros team that has won 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: LA will likely be without the best player in baseball with Mike Trout on leave for the birth of a child. Houston has won 20 of their last 28 games against the Angels when playing in Anaheim. 20* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (923) versus the Los Angeles Angels (924) listing both starting pitchers Josh James and Shohei Ohtani. Best of luck for us — Frank (and don't miss out on his 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Run-Line of the Month where he furthers his 9 of 10 (90%) MLB Run-Line mark for the Red Sox-Yankees' showdown).
|
07-26-20 |
Giants v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Drew Smyly and Julio Urias. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-2) won the third game of this series yesterday when they defeated Los Angeles (2-1) by a 5-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have seen the Over go 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a victory — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 5-2-1 in San Francisco’s last 8 road games as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Manager Gabe Kapler has been cagey about his starting pitcher choices for this opening series but it appears that Smyly will get the ball to start this game. The left-hander was 4-7 between stints with Texas and Philadelphia last season while posting an ugly 6.24 ERA along with a 1.59 WHIP across 114 innings of work. Since Smyly has pitched an inning already this season, Kepler may be using him as an opener while relying on his bullpen for this contest. The Dodgers have pounded the Giants’ relievers so far in this series — the San Fran bullpen has a 7.05 ERA with a 1.89 WHIP in 15 1/3 innings of work while surrendering three home runs. Kapler has relied on his bullpen to throw 5 and 6 1/3 innings in each of their last two starts — and the Giants have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after their bullpen has logged-in at least 5 innings pitched in two straight games. Smyly and the San Fransisco bullpen will face a loaded Dodgers’ team buoyed with the addition of Mookie Betts to their lineup. Los Angeles has averaged 7.0 Runs-Per-Game in their first three games of the season with a .308 batting average along with a .393 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .898. The Dodgers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They counter with Urias who was 4-3 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 79 2/3 innings of work from bullpen action along with eight starts. The lefty was not as effective at home where he had a 3.07 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 as compared to his stellar 1.86 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and .157 opponent’s batting average in 38 2/3 innings on the road. Urias also had a 2.80 ERA in 64 1/3 innings when pitching at night as opposed to his 1.17 ERA during day games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Expect another higher-scoring game. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Drew Smyly and Julio Urias. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-24-20 |
Blue Jays v. Rays -133 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-133 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) has World Series aspirations after losing in the ALDS to Houston last year in five games after a strong 96-66 regular season campaign. Toronto (0-0) looks to improve on a dismal 67-95 mark last season.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay was outstanding at home at Tropicana Field last year where they had won 20 of their last 26 home games. They also won 14 of their last 18 games with the total set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they won 11 of their last 14 games against fellow AL East opponents. Furthermore, the Rays have won 9 of their last 11 opening games to a new series. Tampa Bay lost outfield Tommy Pham in the offseason but they hope to make up for his offense with the additions of Manuel Margot, Jose Martinez, and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo who banged 95 home runs in the Japanese League over the last three seasons. They give the ball to Morton who was 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-three starts last year. The right-hander did his best work at home where he enjoyed a 2.59 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 as compared to his 3.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238. Morton has become an ace even at 36-years old as he has decreased his reliance on his sinker to throw his dominant curveball more often while relying on his veteran savvy in place of the declining velocity with his never-elite fastball. The Rays have won 22 of their last 35 home games with Morton on the mound. Morton should have success against this Blue Jays team that has lost 9 of their last 13 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost a decisive 52 of their last 76 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Toronto is in a state of disarray as they await making a final decision regarding where they will play their home games in this abbreviated season after the Canadian government prohibited them to travel back-and-forth from the United States given COVID-19 concerns. This is a clear rebuilding season for the Blue Jays who await the promotion of their fireballing pitching prospect Nate Pearson. Toronto has lost 38 of their last 56 road games as an underdog. They also have lost 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Ryu will be making his first start for the team after he was signed in the offseason from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The left-hander was 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in twenty-nine starts last year. The deeper metrics were not nearly as bullish on Ryu as those frontline numbers suggest with both his ERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.77 and 3.32. Ryu was dominant at home last year where he sported a 1.93 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in fourteen starts — but those numbers rose to a 2.72 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253.
FINAL TAKE: Morton has thrived against the Blue Jays in his career with a 2.39 ERA in his six career starts. The Rays have won 15 of their last 21 games against Toronto as well. 25* MLB AL East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-24-20 |
Braves v. Mets -139 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (952) versus the Atlanta Braves (951) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) had the best record in MLB last year for teams that missed the playoffs with an 86-76 record. Atlanta (0-0) won the NL East with a 97-65 record but are looking to recover from a 13-2 loss in the decisive 5th game of the NLDS at home against St. Louis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York closed out last season winning 5 of their last 6 games at home. Additionally, the Mets have won 10 of their last 12 home games when favored — and they have won 36 of their last 58 home games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range. Additionally, New York has won 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to DeGrom who was 11-8 with a 2.43 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-two starts. DeGrom was outstanding in the second-half of the season where he owned a 1.44 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP with a 33% strikeout rate which propelled him to register ten Quality Starts in his last fourteen efforts. The right-hander was also more effective at home where he owned a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .189 in seventeen home starts as compared to his 1.06 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average in his fifteen starts on the road. The Mets have also won 20 of their last 30 home games with DeGrom pitching as a favorite up to a -150 price. He should have success against this Braves team that has lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has lost 4 straight games on the road as an underdog. They counter with Soroka who was 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in twenty-nine starts last year. The sabermetrics were not as bullish on the ground-ball pitcher as both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.28 and 3.85 given his peripheral numbers. Soroka had a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate which makes him very dependent on limiting quality contact — and he was very fortunate with where his batted balls went last season. He faces a Mets team that has won 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. New York has also won 38 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their las 5 home games against right-handed starters.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 5 of their last 6 games against NL East foes. The Braves have lost 6 of their last 7 games against NL East opponents. 10* MLB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (952) versus the Atlanta Braves (951) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-19 |
Nationals v. Astros -133 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-133 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (914) versus the Washington Nationals (913) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Washington (104-74) forced a climactic seventh game of the World Series tonight with their 7-2 victory over the Astros. Houston (117-62) gets to host the final game of the 2019 MLB season.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have won 8 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Astros have also won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Despite losing all three games at home this season, Houston has won 38 of their last 52 games at home in Minute Maid Park. It would be the Gambler’s Fallacy to think that the home team is “due” to win at least once in this World Series — but, on the other hand, it remains reasonable to conclude that the Astros retain the advantage when they are playing in front of their home crowd while getting to hit last per inning. They give the ball to Greinke who was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in thirty-three regular-season starts. The right-hander did his best pitching at night where he had a 2.78 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP in twenty regular-season starts. Greinke had a good outing in Game Three of the World Series on Friday where he allowed only one earned run in 4 2/3 innings for work. His teams have won 5 of their last 7 games with Greinke pitching with four days of rest — and they have also won 23 of their last 30 games with Greinke looking to stop a losing streak. Additionally, Greinke’s teams have won 8 of their last 10 games at home with him starting with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Houston has won 7 of their last 9 playoff games when the series is tied — and they have won 4 of their last 5 playoff games when facing elimination. Washington has lost 7 of their last 9 playoff games when the series is tied — and they have lost 4 of their last 6 opportunities to close out a playoff series with a victory. Scherzer has declared himself ready to pitch tonight after needing to be scratched just three days ago after waking up to severe neck pain Sunday morning. I have read some of the commentary from the medical community regarding how quick someone can achieve full health again after experiencing an injury like this: some doctors have claimed that quick turnarounds from what Scherzer experienced are possible. But “possible” is not the same thing as probable. I am not going to be surprised if Scherzer is not at full strength — especially given the back issues he has experienced for the last few months. The phenom had an 11-7 record in the regular season with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. Scherzer was not as effective in night games during the regular season — he had a 0.75 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in day games but those numbers rose to a 3.04 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in seventeen starts at night during the regular season. Additionally, Washington has lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games with Scherzer on the mound when they are facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have won 17 of their last 25 games when looking to avenge an upset loss as a home favorite. With all hands of deck — including Gerrit Cole on two days rest from his win on Sunday — Houston has a few more great players which should make the difference in this single elimination final game. 25* MLB World Series Game of the Year with money-line on the Houston Astros (914) versus the Washington Nationals (913) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-19 |
Nationals v. Astros OVER 7.5 |
Top |
6-2 |
Win
|
103 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Washington (104-74) forced a climactic seventh game of the World Series tonight with their 7-2 victory over the Astros. Houston (117-62) gets to host the final game of the 2019 MLB season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Washington has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. And while Stephen Strasburg pitching into the 9th inning last night, the Nationals have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen did not pitch more than one earned run. Moving forward, the Over is 8-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 10 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. Washington has also played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total when the series is tied. Scherzer has declared himself ready to pitch tonight after needing to be scratched just three days ago after waking up to severe neck pain Sunday morning. I have read some of the commentary from the medical community regarding how quick someone can achieve full health again after experiencing an injury like this: some doctors have claimed that quick turnarounds from what Scherzer experienced are possible. But “possible” is not the same thing as probable. I am not going to be surprised if Scherzer is not at full strength — especially given the back issues he has experienced for the last few months. The phenom had an 11-7 record in the regular season with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. Scherzer was not as effective in night games during the regular season — he had a 0.75 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in day games but those numbers rose to a 3.04 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in seventeen starts at night during the regular season. He takes the mound for the first time since last Tuesday — and the Nationals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when Scherzer is pitching with at least seven days between starts. The Over is 18-7-2 in Houston’s last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is also 10-3-1 in the Astros’ last 14 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, Houston has played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total in Interleague play against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games at home Over the Total. They counter with Greinke who was 18-5 in thirty-three regular-season starts with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. He saw his ERA rise to a 3.27 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in his fifteen starts at home in the regular season. His teams have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Greinke pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Greinke faces a Nationals team that has seen the Over go 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 meetings — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing in Houston. 25* MLB World Series Game Seven O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-19 |
Nationals v. Astros OVER 7 |
|
7-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (911) and the Houston Astros (912) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. THE SITUATION: Houston (117-61) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Sunday with their 7-1 victory in Game Five of the World Series. Washington (103-74) will try to become the first team in Major League Baseball history to win a World Series without winning a game at home.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Astros’ last 5 games after a win. And while Houston has held Washington to only one run in three straight games, they have then played 39 of their last 64 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. The Astros return home where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Houston has also played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in Interleague play. They give the ball to ver Verlander who may be showing the wear of a 36-year old who has logged-in 253 1/3 innings already this season. In his last four starts, Verlander is 0-3 with a 5.41 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. And while Verlander has enjoyed some spectacular moments in the playoffs throughout his career, he has struggled in the World Series with an 0-5 record along with a 5.73 ERA in six career starts. Houston has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Verlander pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. The Over is also 4-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is also 16-7-5 in Washington’s last 28 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Strasburg who was 18-6 in thirty-three regular-season starts with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. The right-hander was not as effective on the road where his ERA rose to a 3.39 mark along with a 1.11 WHIP in nineteen regular-season starts. Furthermore, Strasburg had a 3.67 ERA in his twenty starts at night. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games in Interleague play Over the Total with Strasburg on the mound. They also have played 29 of their last 45 games Over the Total with Strasburg pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Nationals have also played 4 straight games Over the Total with Strasburg pitching against the Astros.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 16-4-2 in Washington’s last 22 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 6-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 3* MLB Washington-Houston Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (911) and the Houston Astros (912) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-19 |
Nationals +1.5 v. Astros |
Top |
7-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Washington Nationals (911) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (912) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. THE SITUATION: Houston (117-61) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Sunday with their 7-1 victory in Game Five of the World Series. Washington (103-74) will try to become the first team in Major League Baseball history to win a World Series without winning a game at home.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: It was just five days ago that Washington was being coronated as the inevitable champions after winning the first two games of the World Series on the road in Houston. The Nationals have won 6 straight games on the road in the playoffs. Since May 24th, Washington has an 84-43 record which is very close to Houston’s 84-41 record since that time. The Nationals have bounced-back to win 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after a loss by at least six runs. Washington needs to get their bats going after scoring only one run in three straight games. The Nationals hit only .175 in their three games at home — but they have then won 35 of their last 52 games after failing to hit better than .200 in their last three games. Washington has also won 10 of their last 15 games after failing to score more than four runs in their last three games. The Nationals have also won 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Momentum lasts only as long as the next day’s starting pitcher — and no one has been better this month than Strasburg who is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 28 innings. The right-hander has a remarkable 40 strikeouts over that span with just two bases-on-balls. Furthermore, in his career 47 playoff innings, Strasburg has a 0.96 WHIP along with a 1.34 ERA that is the third-best in MLB history for pitchers who have pitched at least 40 innings of postseason baseball. Washington has won 45 of their last 60 games with Strasburg pitching on the road. The Nationals have also won 41 of their last 58 games with Strasburg facing a team with a winning record. Houston has lost 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than one run in three straight games. The Astros have lost 4 of their last 5 home games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. Houston has also lost 5 of their last 7 World Series games at home. They counter with Verlander who may be showing the wear of a 36-year old who has logged-in 253 1/3 innings already this season. Over his last four starts, Verlander is 0-3 with a 5.41 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. And while Verlander has enjoyed some spectacular moments in the playoffs throughout his career, he has struggled in the World Series with an 0-5 record along with a 5.73 ERA in six career starts. The Astros have lost 4 of their last 5 games in Interleague play with Verlander on the mound. He will be facing a Nationals team that has won 6 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss at home by at least six runs.
FINAL TAKE: Because the Astros average 1.75 Home Runs per game, they fall into a historical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 54% effective since 1997. American League teams that average at least 1.5 Home Runs per game that are using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 87 of these last 160 situations (when priced at +135 to -190 range). 5* MLB Playoff Run-Line of the Year with the Washington Nationals (911) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (912) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Astros v. Nationals +1.5 |
|
7-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Nationals (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (909) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ross and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Houston (116-61) evened the World Series at 2-2 last night with their 8-1 victory. Washington (103-73) had planned on using Max Scherzer tonight in a rematch of the pitching matchup in Game One of this series but his nagging neck issues have compelled manager Dave Martinez to scratch him tonight for Ross.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: It might be easy to write off Washington tonight with Scherzer out and Ross in — but it would be a grave mistake for the Astros to let up in their intensity. Remember that this Washington team has already beaten the odds twice in this series by defeating Cole and Justin Verlander as a big underdog in Houston in the first two games of this series. Since May 24th, the Nationals actually have a better record than the Astros with a 84-42 mark which is a game better than Houston’s 83-41 record. Washington has won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss —and they have won 21 of their last 30 games after a game where they lost by at least four runs. Additionally, the Nationals have won 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Washington has also won 27 of their last 37 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have still won 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. Ross is not offer promising regular season numbers given his 4-4 record along with a 5.48 ERA. But the Nationals have won 19 of their last 27 home games with Ross making the start — and this includes them winning five of their last seven home games with Ross facing a team with a winning record. Martinez will certainly have a quick hook for Ross if he gets into trouble — and he will have almost his entire pitching staff at his disposal tonight including Game Three starter Anibal Sanchez. Over their last seven games, the Washington bullpen has a 3.32 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. Cole was awesome in the regular season with a 20-5 record along with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in thirty-three starts. But Cole was hit hard in Game One of the World Series as he allowed five runs in 7 innings of work. Was it nerves? The toll of 242 innings of work for the season? The extended seven days between starts? Two of those reasons are not good signs for him tonight. He faces a Washington team that has won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 9 of their last 11 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Because the Astros average 1.74 Home Runs per game, they actually fall into a historical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 55% effective since 1997. American League teams that average at least 1.5 Home Runs per game that are using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 87 of these last 159 situations (when priced at +135 to -190 range). 10* MLB World Series Game Five Run-Line Special with the Washington Nationals (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (909) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ross and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Astros v. Nationals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
7-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Washington Nationals (910) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Joe Ross. THE SITUATION: Houston (116-61) evened the World Series at 2-2 last night with their 8-1 victory. Washington (103-73) had planned on using Max Scherzer tonight in a rematch of the pitching matchup in Game One of this series but his nagging neck issues have compelled manager Dave Martinez to scratch him tonight for Ross.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals managed only four base hits last night but they have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after not managing more than four base hits in their last game. Washington has also played 14 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after failing to score more than once in their last game — and the Over is 16-7-4 in their last 27 games after failing to score more than twice in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. Ross presents a problem given his 5.48 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 64 innings during the regular season. He particularly struggled at home where he had a 7.63 ERA in 30 2/3 innings of work with a 2.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .346. Martinez has trusted Ross to pitch only two innings in this postseason before tonight. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Ross making the start against an American League opponent — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Ross pitching after a game where they allowed at least five runs. Martinez will have to lean on his bullpen tonight — and that group has a 5.64 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP at home this year. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs Over the Total — and the Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last contest. Cole was hit hard in Game One of the World Series as he allowed five runs in 7 innings of work. Was it nerves? The toll of 242 innings of work for the season? The extended seven days between starts? Two of those reasons are not good signs for him tonight. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Cole pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. The Nationals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* MLB World Series Game Five O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Washington Nationals (910) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Joe Ross. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Astros v. Nationals OVER 8.5 |
|
8-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (907) and the Washington Nationals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Houston (115-61) won the first game of the World Series last night with their 4-1 victory over the Nationals. Washington (103-72) hosts Game Four tonight with a 2-1 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros and Nationals left a frustrating 10 and 12 runners on base respectively last night (ruining our Over play). Washington has played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Additionally, the Nationals have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They give the ball to Corbin who had a 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts in the regular season. The left-hander saw his numbers climb a bit when pitching at night where he had a 3.26 ERA along with a 1.24 WHIP in twenty-four starts. Corbin has struggled in his first postseason where he has a 6.91 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings of work in six appearances including two starts. The Over is 3-0-1 in Washington’s last 4 home games with Corbin on the hill. Houston sends out Urquidy who was 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 41 regular-season innings. He saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.12 and 1.32 marks on the road during the regular season. In his 4 1/3 innings in these playoffs, Urquidy has a 2.08 ERA — but his 1.85 WHIP due to six base hits allowed is a concern. Furthermore, he has only pitched 47 and 45 pitches in his previous two playoff appearances so the Astros will be leaning heavily on their bullpen that has a 4.07 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP in their last seven games. Washington is still scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .792 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total when playing in Washington. 20* MLB Houston-Washington Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (907) and the Washington Nationals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-19 |
Astros -118 v. Nationals |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (905) versus the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (103-71) took a 2-0 lead in the World Series on Wednesday with their 12-3 victory over the Astros. The Nationals have won eight straight games as well as eighteen of their last twenty contests. Houston (114-61) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I suspect this is a situation where the off day comes at a bad time for a Nationals team surging with confidence. It will have been hard for this team to not be aware of the deluge of stories declaring them already a historical team of the ages after defeating Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander on the road. Yet the oddsmakers still have them as a money-line underdog for this game — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 home games as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. When combining this possible sense of complacency with the history of failed postseason experiences when playing at home, this situation remains precarious. Momentum is only as strong as the next day’s starting pitcher — and that brings us to Sanchez. The veteran right-hander saved his career last season by developing a cutter which helped him earn an 11-8 record in thirty regular season starts with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. But Sanchez was not as effective at home where he had a 4.24 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in fifteen regular-season starts. Washington has lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Sanchez facing a team with a winning record. Houston has bounced-back to win 6 of their last 8 games after a loss. And I suspect the off day has helped A.J. Finch’s team focus on the task at hand again — and they have won 39 of their last 53 games after an off day. The Astros go on the road where they have won 10 of their last 14 games — and they have won 6 of their last 8 road games against National League teams with a winning record. They counter with Greinke who was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander did his best pitching at night during the regular season where he had a 2.78 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty starts. His teams have won 15 of their last 22 games when he was pitching at night. Greinke’s teams have also won 5 of their last 7 games on the road when he is on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: Greinke has also thrived when needing to stop a losing streak as his teams have won 22 of their last 29 games with him on the mound after a loss. Look for the Astros to make this a 2-1 series. 10* MLB Houston-Washington Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (905) versus the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-19 |
Astros v. Nationals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (103-71) took a 2-0 lead in the World Series on Wednesday with their 12-3 victory over the Astros. The Nationals have won eight straight games as well as eighteen of their last twenty contests. Houston (114-61) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Washington has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off day. Additionally, the Nationals have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games, Furthermore, Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games when facing an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. And while the Nationals have not allowed more than four runs in eight straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in four straight games. Washington returns home where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 4 straight games in Interleague play Over the Total at home. And in their last 24 home games when listed in the +/- 125 range, the Nationals have played 17 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Sanchez who was 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty regular-season starts. The right-hander was not as effective at home where he had a 4.24 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in fifteen regular-season starts. And while Sanchez comes off 7 2/3 innings of shutout ball in his last start way back on October 11th at St. Louis, Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Sanchez looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces an Astros team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston is hitting only .203 over their last five games — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after hitting no better than .225 over their last five games. The Astros’ bullpen surrendered eight runs (five earned) on Wednesday — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total when their bullpen allowed at least five earned runs in their last game. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Greinke who was 18-5 in the regular season with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in thirty-three starts. But the right-hander has struggled in this postseason where he has an 0-2 record with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 innings of work. Greinke’s teams have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .277 batting average along with a .338 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .808 during that span. Washington has played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. The Nationals have also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when leading in the playoff series. 25* MLB Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-19 |
Nationals v. Astros UNDER 7 |
|
12-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Houston Astros (904) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. THE SITUATION: Washington (102-71) won the opening game of the World Series last night by a 5-4 score. While the Nationals have won seven straight games, Houston (114-60) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It looked like both starting pitchers last night, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole, were a bit nervous pitching in their first World Series game. Nerves will likely not play a role for Verlander who starred for the Astros in their World Series championship two years ago. In his career, Verlander has a 14-9 record with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 168 2/3 innings of work which includes 28 starts in 29 game appearances. Verlander has a 3.70 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings of work while striking out 29 batters and walking just eight. Remember that Verlander had a bad outing in the fifth game of the ALDS against Tampa Bay when he was asked to start on just three days rest for the first time in his postseason career. He is pitching on his normal four days rest tonight — and Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss with Verlander looking to end that losing streak. The right-hander had a 21-6 record in thirty-four regular-season starts with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP — and he had a 2.34 ERA in seventeen starts at home. The Under is 14-5-1 in the Astros’ last 20 home games with Verlander on the mound — and Houston has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with Verlander facing a team with a winning record. The Astros have also played 13 of their last 17 home games with Verlander when priced as a favorite at -151 or higher. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in Houston’s last 9 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against a National League team with a winning record. Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games in Interleague play against on the road. The Nationals have also played 6 of their last 8 road games in the playoffs Under the Total — and the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Strasburg who is 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in thirty-three starts in the regular season. Strasburg has been outstanding in the playoffs — he has a 3-0 record in four starts in this postseason with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. For his career, Strasburg has a 1.10 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in seven games spanning 41 innings. The right-hander pitched allowed only one unearned run in 7 innings of work in his last start back on October 23rd against St. Louis — and the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nationals last 8 games with Strasburg looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a slumping Houston lineup who are scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .193 batting average along with a .289 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .621 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have still played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total when playing in Houston’s Minute Maid Park even after last night. 20* MLB Washington-Houston Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Houston Astros (904) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-19 |
Nationals v. Astros UNDER 7 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-125 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Washington (101-71) takes the field again after completing their four-game sweep of St. Louis with their 7-4 win on October 15th. Houston (114-59) has won four of their last five games after their 6-4 win over the Yankees on Saturday in the sixth game of the ALCS. The Astros host the first two games of the World Series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 6-2-2 in the Nationals’ last 10 opening games to a new series — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new playoff series. Washington has played two straight games that finished Over the Total — but they have then played 21 of their last 33 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Additionally, the Nationals have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total — and the Under is 39-14-4 in their last 57 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Washington has also played 25 of their last 37 road games Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They give the ball to Scherzer who was 11-7 in the regular season with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven regular-season starts. Scherzer was bothered by a sore back that kept him on the disabled list through the month of August but he has found his elite form again in this postseason. In 20 innings of work in these playoffs, Scherzer has a 1.80 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP while striking out 27 batters and walking just eight. He comes off 7 shutout innings in his last start against the Cardinals back on October 12th — and the Under is 5-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 7 games with Scherzer looking to follow up a Quality Start. Scherzer was also more effective on the road during the regular season with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twelve starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Washington’s last 5 road starts with Scherzer facing a team with a winning record. Houston is struggling with their bats as they are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .189 batting average along with a .279 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .618. The Astros have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home against teams from the National League. The Under is also 3-1-1 in Houston’s last 5 home games against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Cole who is 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in thirty-three starts in the regular season. The right-hander was more effective at home where he had a 0.79 WHIP and .175 opponent’s batting average in seventeen starts as opposed to his 1.02 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average on the road. Cole has a 0.40 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP in three starts in this postseason over a span of 22 2/3 innings of work. Cole has struck out 32 batters while walking eight in those three starts. He comes off seven shutout innings himself in his last start last Tuesday — and the Under is 4-1-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games with Scherzer following up a Quality Start.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Houston. Expect a pitcher’s duel tonight. 25* MLB World Series Game One O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Yankees v. Astros -125 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the New York Yankees as an action play (do not list the starting pitchers). THE SITUATION: New York (108-62) forced a sixth game in the American League Championship Series last night with their 4-1 victory. This series now returns to Houston (113-59) tonight for Game Six and, potentially, Game Seven tomorrow night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I think both these managers are making mistakes by going with the trendy opener rather than an established starting pitcher. While these managers may be overthinking things, let’s keep it simple on our end with a solid 20* play against this Yankees team that has lost 20 of their last 25 games on the road as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. New York has also lost 13 of their last 16 games on the road in the ALCS — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 road games in the playoffs. Manager Aaron Boone will (likely) use Chad Green as his opener — the right-hander is 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 69 innings this season. Green has an uninspiring 4.91 ERA in 3 2/3 innings in this series. J.A. Happ will also likely appear at some time tonight — probably as the second pitchers for the Yankees since he is a left-hander. I concede that one of the advantages of the opener strategy is to mess with opposing lineups that like to platoon based on lefty-righty splits. I am less enthralled with this approach against the Astros since their core lineup is stable and so good. Happ has a 4.91 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP this season. The Yankees bullpen has a 4.34 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP on the road. Perhaps Boone is making the most of a bad situation with his only realistic alternative being to start Happ (rather than to use Green first)? Fair enough — and it might have lowered the investment price on the Astros! Houston has won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have won 7 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. They return home where they have won 39 of their last 51 games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games in the playoffs. They will likely open with Brad Peacock who pitched the last inning for the Astros last night to retire the side with just eight pitches. He is a veteran who had a 7-6 record with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. Perhaps his opening the game takes some of the pressure off Jose Urquidy who will likely appear next. Urquidy had a 2-1 record with a 3.95 ERA in 41 innings of work — and he was more effective at home where he had a 3.80 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and .210 opponent’s batting average.
FINAL TAKE: Game Four was the critical game in this series for the Yankees. Their loss on Wednesday put them in a 3-1 hole which will be very difficult to overcome. Look for the Astros to advance to the World Series tonight. Don’t list the starting pitchers — we want the action nor matter what given this situation. I do not trust either manager to pull a fast one with a last-minute starting pitcher change. 20* MLB NY Yankees-Houston FS1-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the New York Yankees as an action play (do not list the starting pitchers). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-19 |
Astros -135 v. Yankees |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (921) with the money-line versus the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Houston (113-58) took a 3-1 lead in the American League Championship Series last night with their 8-3 victory. New York (107-62) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston should build off the momentum of their victory last night. The Astros have won 39 of their last 53 games after a win — and they have won 35 of their last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. This Houston team has also won 10 of their last 13 games on the road. They give the ball to Verlander who was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander was more effective on the road during the regular season where he had a 0.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .164 in seventeen starts as compared to his 0.84 WHIP and .180 opponent’s batting average at home. Verlander had one bad outing in this postseason when he was pitching on three days of rest — he still has a 3.11 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings in these playoffs. And in his career in the playoffs, Verlander has a 3.34 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in 161 2/3 innings of work. He comes off a strong outing in Game Two of this series where he allowed only two runs in 6 2/3 innings — and the Astros have won 10 of their last 14 games with Verlander looking to follow up a Quality Start. Furthermore, Houston has won 30 of their last 39 games with Verlander pitching on the road — and they have won 11 of their last 14 road games with Verlander facing a team with a winning record. And in their last 4 games with Verlander facing the Yankees, the Astros have won all 4 games. I took New York yesterday because I thought it was a must-win situation with this Verlander-Paxton being not as favorable a matchup. It is telling that the Yankees are rare home underdogs tonight — and they have lost 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. Paxton was 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-nine regular seasons starts. But the lefty has not fared as well in his debut in the postseason as he has a 5.14 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP in seven innings over two appearances.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have lost 6 of their 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Houston has won 40 of their last 52 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Houston-NY Yankees FS1-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (921) with the money-line versus the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-19 |
Astros v. Yankees UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Houston (113-58) took a 3-1 lead in the American League Championship Series last night with their 8-3 victory. New York (107-62) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is now 4-1-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games in the playoffs. Additionally, Houston has seen the Under go 11-5-1 in their last 17 games on the road. They give the ball to Verlander who was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander was more effective on the road during the regular season where he had a 0.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .164 in seventeen starts as compared to his 0.84 WHIP and .180 opponent’s batting average at home. Verlander had one bad outing in this postseason when he was pitching on three days of rest — he still has a 3.11 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings in these playoffs. And in his career in the playoffs, Verlander has a 3.34 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in 161 2/3 innings of work. He comes off a strong outing in Game Two of this series where he allowed only two runs in 6 2/3 innings — and the Astros have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total with Verlander looking to follow up a Quality Start. Houston has played 7 of their last 9 road games with Verlander facing a team with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 24 games Under the Total with Verlander pitching at night. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Verlander facing the Yankees. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. Additionally, the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against a team that scored at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Paxton who was 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-nine regular-season starts. The left-hander was much better at home in Yankee Stadium where he had a 3.35 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in fifteen starts as compared to his 4.33 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .274 opponent’s batting average on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are not swinging hot bats right now (a de-juiced baseball?). Houston is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .196 batting average, .265 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .618 over that span. The Yankees are hitting only .241 over their last seven games with a .760 OPS. 25* MLB American League Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
Astros v. Yankees -123 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-123 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (920) versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: New York (107-61) has lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss to the Astros on Tuesday. Game Four of the World Series was rained out yesterday. Houston (112-58) is up 2-1 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has bounced-back to win 22 of their last 26 games at home after a loss — and they have won 22 of their last 27 home games after losing two in a row. And while both these losses finished Under the Total, the Yankees have then won 30 of their last 40 games after playing two straight Unders. New York has still won 19 of their last 23 home games when priced as a favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. The Yankees have also won 9 of their last 12 playoff games at home. And in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, New York has won 8 of these games. They give the ball to Tanaka who had an 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP during the regular season. The right-hander was much better when pitching at home in Yankee Stadium where he had a 3.10 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in sixteen starts. Tanaka is pitching on his normal four days of rest with last night’s rainout — he comes off an outstanding outing last Saturday in the opening game of the ALCS where he allowed only one hit and zero runs in 6 innings of work. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 8 games with Tanaka pitching after a Quality Start in his last outing. New York has also won 8 of their last 10 games with Tanaka facing a team with a winning record — and they have won 19 of their last 26 home games with him facing a team with a winning record. The Yankees have also won 4 of their last 5 games against the Astros with Tanaka on the hill. He faces an Astros lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .272 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .633 over that span. Houston has lost 16 of their last 25 playoff games when leading in the series — and they have lost 9 of their last 23 games in the ALCS on the road. The Astros have also lost 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have lost 12 of their last 17 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Greinke who was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in thirty-three regular-season starts. Greinke has not enjoyed a ton of success in the playoffs in his career given his 3-6 record along with a 4.32 ERA in twelve postseason starts. He allowed three runs in 6 innings of work in Game One of this series as he was out-dueled by Tanaka — and he has a rough 8.38 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP in his two playoff starts this year. Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Greinke facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have won 42 of their last 55 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. And I usually find that postponed games work to the benefit of the home team rather than the visitors who stayed clamped up on the road. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Yankees (920) versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-19 |
Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Washington (100-71) took a 3-0 lead in the National League Championship Series last night with their 8-1 victory over the Cardinals. St. Louis (94-76) has lost five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-2-1 in the Nationals’ last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have played a decisive 31 of their last 48 home games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 6-1-1 in Washington’s last 8 games against an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals’ bullpen did not allow an earned run last night but they have then played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow a run in their last game. But this Washington bullpen has a 5.72 ERA along with a 1.55 WHIP at home this season along with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP this postseason. The Over is also 5-2-1 in the Nationals’ last 8 games at home. They give the ball to Corbin who was 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The left-hander has struggled in this postseason with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings which has included a couple of bullpen appearances. Corbin also sees his WHIP rise to a 1.24 mark in night games as compare to his 1.05 WHIP in nine day starts. Washington has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Corbin pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis has seen the Over go 43-20-4 in their last 67 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss. And while St. Louis has scored only two runs in this series, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in two straight games. Furthermore, the Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 road games in the playoffs. They counter with Hudson who is 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in thirty-three regular-season appearances. Hudson struggled in his last start back on March 7th in the Game Four of the NLDS where he allowed four runs (one earned) in 4 2/3 innings of work at home while allowing five hits and two walks. The right-hander now goes on the road where he has been less effective with a 4.13 ERA with a 1.61 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in sixteen games (fifteen starts). St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Hudson facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Nationals score 5.6 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have scored 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. With the Cardinals desperate to stave off elimination, expect a big scoring game. 25* MLB National League Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-19 |
Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 6.5 |
Top |
1-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:38 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Washington Nationals (910) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: Washington (99-71) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 3-1 win over the Cardinals. St. Louis (94-75) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals lost the opening game of this series by a 2-0 score. And while they have managed just four hits so far in this series, St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where three or fewer runs were scored by both teams. The Cardinals have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. And while they stranded only three runners on Saturday, they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after stranding three runners or less in their last game. Now the Cardinals go back on the road — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. The Over is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-three regular-season starts. But while the right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.13 mark in seventeen starts on the road along with a 1.15 WHIP. St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Flaherty pitching with the Total no higher than 7.5. Flaherty also sees his ERA rise to a 3.50 mark when pitching at night this year. He faces a Nationals team that has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington scores 5.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .273 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .830. The Nationals have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also played a decisive 53 of their last 80 home games Over the Total in night games. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against an opponent who did not score more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Strasburg who was 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.67 mark when pitching at night. The Over is also a decisive 41-16-3 in the Nationals’ last 60 home games with Strasburg on the mound — and the Over is 21-7-1 in their last 28 home games with Strasburg faces a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: I was surprised (and overjoyed) to see the Total drop to 6.5s in many spots for this game. The Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set at 7 or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total with the number set at 7 or lower. The Nationals have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set at 7 or lower. 25* MLB Monday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Washington Nationals (910) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-19 |
Yankees v. Astros -149 |
Top |
7-0 |
Loss |
-149 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (904) versus the New York Yankees (903) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Masahiro Tanaka. Houston (110-57) defeated Tampa Bay in the fifth game of their ALDS on Thursday with their 6-1 victory. New York (106-59) has won three straight games after they completed their three-game sweep of the Twins in their ALDS with their 5-1 win back last Monday. They host the first two games of this best-of-seven American League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 35 of their last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also won 38 of their last 52 games after an off day. They stay at home where they have won 40 of their last 52 games — and they have also won 9 of their last 13 games at home in the ALCS. They give the ball to Greinke who was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in thirty-three regular-season starts. The right-hander thrived under the lights where he had a 2.78 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP in twenty starts at night. Houston has won 4 of their last 5 home games with Greinke on the mound. He faces a Yankees team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has not been as good on the road as they are at home in Yankee Stadium. They have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also lost 10 of their last 13 road games in the playoffs. Additionally, New York has lost 12 of their last 15 road games in the ALCS. They counter with Tanaka who is 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in thirty-one starts (thirty-two games). The right-hander struggles on the road where his ERA skyrockets to a 6.05 mark with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in fifteen starts (sixteen games). Tanaka also has a 5.44 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts at night. The Yankees have lost 6 of their last 7 games with Tanaka pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: New York has lost 10 of their last 13 games when playing against the Astros on the road in Minute Maid Park. Houston opened as a money-line favorite in the -155 range which is beyond my -150 price threshold — but with the price dropping to the -145 to -150 range, let’s attack. 25* MLB Saturday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Houston Astros (904) versus the New York Yankees (903) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-19 |
Nationals v. Cardinals -126 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-126 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (902) versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (94-73) enters the NLCS with tons of momentum after winning Games Four and Five of the NLDS with the Braves that was finalized with their dominant 13-1 victory in Atlanta on Wednesday. Washington (97-71) comes off a dramatic 7-3 come-from-behind victory in Los Angeles against the Dodgers in Game Five of that series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis should build off their momentum as they have won 7 of their last 9 games are a win — and they have won 16 of their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also won 21 of their last 30 games at home — and they have won 25 of their last 36 games after being priced as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range. They give the ball to Mikolas who was 9-14 in the regular season with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander does his better pitching at home where he owns a 3.01 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .247 in fifteen starts. St. Louis has won 16 of their last 23 home games with Mikolas on the mound — and they have won 15 of their last 21 games with Mikolas facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .247 batting average along with a .316 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .704 with all those numbers being below their season average. Washington may be due for an emotional letdown after removing the jinx their franchise has endured from failing to advance out of the NLDS. The Nationals have lost 4 of their last 6 opening games to a new playoff series. They counter with Sanchez who is 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty starts. But this will be the Nationals’ third straight game on the road — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 road games with Sanchez pitching as a road underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. Sanchez’s teams have also lost 6 of their last 8 games when he is making the starting the playoffs. The Cardinals are scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .247 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .724 over that span with all those numbers better than their season average. St. Louis has won 16 of their last 22 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have won 7 of their last 9 games against the Nationals — and they have won a decisive 37 of their last 42 games at home when hosting St. Louis. Look for the Cardinals to take a 1-0 lead in this best-of-seven series. 25* MLB Friday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (902) versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-19 |
Rays v. Astros UNDER 7 |
|
1-6 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (951) and the Houston Astros (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (99-68) forced a decisive fifth-game in this series on Tuesday with their 4-1 victory over the Astros. This series returns to Houston (109-57) who gets to host the final game to determine who will play the Yankees in the ALCS.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where they did not allow more than two runs in their last game. Now Tampa Bay goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set at 7 or less. Furthermore, the Rays have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to come out a series. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in twelve regular-season starts. The right-hander was more effective on the road where he had a 0.55 ERA with a 0.67 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .142 in six starts. Glasnow also had a 1.56 ERA in seven starts at night during the regular season. He had great stuff in Game One of this series where he allowed two runs and two runs in 4 1/3 innings of work while striking out four batters. He is pitching with five days of rest — and the Under is 4-0-1 in the Rays’ last 5 games with Glasnow pitching with five days of rest. Tampa Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Glasnow on the hill — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Glasnow looking to follow up a start where he did not allow more than two earned runs. He faces a slumping Astros lineup that is hitting just .241 in this series with a .294 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .685 which is far below their season .848 OPS. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss. And while the Astros have only scored four combined runs over their last two games, they have then played 29 of their last 45 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three runs in two straight games. Furthermore, Houston has played 43 of their last 64 home games Under the Total when priced as a big favorite in the -250 to -330 range. They give the ball to Cole who is 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in thirty-three regulars season starts. The right-hander has been pitching his best as of late — he is 5-0 over his last five regular-season starts with a 1.00 ERA along with 60 strikeouts and just 5 bases-on-balls over those 36 innings. Cole registered 326 punch-outs this season before striking out 15 Rays in 7 2/3 innings while not allowing an earned run on Saturday in the second game of this series. Cole is pitching with four days of rest which was not uncommon for him during the regular season — and the Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Cole pitching on four days of rest. He faces a Rays team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .237 batting average along with a .303 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .734 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has lost the last two games in this series on the road despite being favored — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with double revenge. The Astros have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when looking to avenge two straight upset losses on the road as the favorite. 10* MLB Tampa Bay-Houston FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (951) and the Houston Astros (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-19 |
Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (915) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (916) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Washington (96-71) forced a decisive fifth game of this series on Monday with their 6-1 victory over the Dodgers. This series moves back to Los Angeles (108-58) for the final game to determine who will advance to the National League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 11-5-1 in the Nationals’ last 17 games after an off day — and they have played 24 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Washington has played 25 of the last 36 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and the Under is 37-18-4 in their last 59 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Nationals have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total in the playoffs. They give the ball to Strasburg who is 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander was dominant on Saturday in the second game of this series where he allowed one earned run in 6 innings of work — and the Under is 5-0-1 in Washington’s last 6 games with Strasburg is following up a Quality Start. The Nationals have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road with Strasburg on the hill — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games with Strasburg facing a team with a winning record. Additionally, Washington has played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Strasburg facing the Dodgers in Los Angeles. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Under is 19-8-1 in Los Angeles’ last 28 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Dodgers return home where the Under is 36-13-5 in their last 54 home games against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 12-2-2 in LA’s last 16 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Buehler who was 14-4 with a 3.26 era and a 1.04 whip in thirty regular-season starts. The right-hander was even better at home during the regular season where he enjoyed a 2.86 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in fourteen starts. The Under is 20-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 29 home games with Beuhler on the hill — and the Under is also 13-1-2 in their last 16 home games with Buehler facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Nationals team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 games between these two teams when playing in Los Angeles. 10* MLB Washington-LA Dodgers TBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (915) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (916) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-19 |
Cardinals -102 v. Braves |
Top |
13-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 5:02 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (913) versus the Atlanta Braves (914) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (93-73) forced a decisive fifth game of this series on Monday with their 5-4 victory in 10 innings over the Braves. Atlanta (99-67) returns home to host this climactic game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta was winning that game by a 4-3 score with two outs in the 8th inning before they allowed St. Louis to tie the game. The Braves earned the right to host Game Five with their better record than St. Louis — but home has been a house of horrors for this team in the playoffs as of late. Atlanta has lost 18 of their last 26 playoff games at home — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 playoff games at home when facing elimination. While their fans will be hopeful, they have also been conditioned to expect disappointment. That is a bad environment for a young team that has yet to learn how to win while having a superstar in Ronald Acuna who continues to make mental mistakes by running out base hits. The Braves have lost 5 straight fifth games in a series. Additionally, Atlanta has lost 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. And the Braves have lost 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Foltynewicz who is 8-6 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-one regular-season starts this season. The right-hander was a mess for most of the season before finally being sent down to the minors. He returned to the big leagues in August with improved velocity which helped him produce a 4-1 record with a 1.73 ERA. But he still has a rough 4.58 ERA along with a 1.31 WHIP in ten regular-season starts at home. Foltynewicz pitched 7 shutout innings in Game Two of this series on Friday — but Atlanta has still lost 12 of the last 17 home games with Foltynewicz on the mound facing a team with a winning record. The Cardinals will benefit from that recent experience against Foltynewicz in this rematch. St. Louis has won 6 of their last 8 games after a win — and they have won 15 of their last 21 games are scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also won 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a victory by just one run. Furthermore, St. Louis has won 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Flaherty who is 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-three regular-season starts. The right-hander may have been the best pitcher in baseball over the second half of the regular season where he enjoyed a 0.93 ERA with 130 strikeouts in 106 1/3 innings of work. Flaherty was solid but not spectacular in Game Two where he allowed three runs in 7 innings of work. The Cardinals have won 7 of their last 10 games with Flaherty pitching with four days of rest. He faces a slumping Braves lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .230 batting average along with a .299 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .664. Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has won 10 of their last 14 games played in Atlanta. Look for the Cardinals to find a way to win this game — or the Braves to find a way to lose it. 25* MLB NLDS Game of the Year with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (913) versus the Atlanta Braves (914) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-19 |
Astros -1.5 v. Rays |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-127 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Tampa Bay Rays (910) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Diego Castillo. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (98-68) kept their season alive yesterday after with their 10-3 victory over the Astros to make this a 2-1 series. Houston (109-56) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the loss but they can still close out this best-of-five series tonight with a victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston has bounced-back to win 8 of their last 10 games after a loss. They have also still won 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 7 to 7.5. Furthermore, the Astros have won a decisive 92 of their last 128 road games when priced at least a -125 favorite. Houston has also won 38 of their last 54 games when priced as a heavy favorite in the -175 to -250 price range. They give the ball to Verlander who is 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The right-hander has done his best pitching on the road where he has a 0.76 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .164 in seventeen starts as compared to his 0.84 WHIP and .180 WHIP in his seventeen starts at home. The Astros have won 23 of their last 29 road games with Verlander on the mound — and they have won 11 of their last 13 road games with Verlander facing a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay has still lost 8 of their last 10 games in the ALDS. The Rays have also lost 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home. And in their last 15 games as a big underdog priced at +200 or higher, Tampa Bay has lost 12 of these games. It will be a bullpen game for Tampa Bay with Castillo up first. The right-hander is 5-8 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 68 2/3 innings of work. Castillo has struggled as an opener as he is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in six starts while allowing 11 hits in 7 1/3 innings of work. The Rays’ bullpen has a 4.25 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP over their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have won nine of their last eleven games when favored at a price higher than -150 — and all nine of those victories were by more than 1 run. 10* MLB Houston-Tampa Bay FS1-TV Run-Line Special with the Houston Astros (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Tampa Bay Rays (910) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Diego Castillo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Yankees -142 v. Twins |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (907) versus the Minnesota Twins (908) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Jake Odorizzi. THE SITUATION: New York (105-59) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 8-2 victory over the Twins. Minnesota (101-63) has lost three games in a row as they look to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 30 of their last 40 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Yankees have also won 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. Additionally, New York has won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record —and they have won 36 of their last 52 games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Severino who is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 12 innings of work this year after coming back from a right-shoulder and lat injury from last season. The right-hander was spectacular in the first half of last season before those injuries began to develop — he had a rough 5.67 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP over his final fourteen starts last year. He seems to be back to his old form — and the Yankees have won 16 of their last 25 road games with Severino pitching as a favorite priced at least at -125. Minnesota has lost 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Twins have also lost 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Twins have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Minnesota has lost an incredible 22 of their last 26 games in the playoffs — and they have lost 10 of their last 11 playoff games at home. They counter with Odorizzi who is 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirty starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in fifteen starts as compared to his 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 when on the road. Odorizzi also has a 4.01 ERA in night games with a 1.28 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: The Twins have lost 11 of their last 12 games when trailing in a playoff series — and they have also lost 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs when facing elimination. Look for the Yankees to close out this series tonight. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Minnesota FS1-TV Special with the money-line on the New York Yankees (907) versus the Minnesota Twins (908) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Jake Odorizzi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Yankees v. Twins OVER 9 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (907) and the Minnesota Twins (908) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Jake Odorizzi. THE SITUATION: New York (105-59) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 8-2 victory over the Twins. Minnesota (101-63) has lost three games in a row as they look to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have scored eighteen runs in this series with their 10-4 victory in the opening game of this series. New York has then played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. The Yankees have also had their bullpen pitch 4 innings in three straight games totaling 15 1/2 innings overall — and they have then played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 4 innings in three straight contests. Now New York goes back on the road where they have played 27 of their last 41 road games Over the Total as a money-line favorite priced at least at -125. The Yankees have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Over is 5-2-1 in New York’s last 8 games in the ALDS — and the Over is 21-5-1 in the Yankees’ last 27 games against teams from the AL Central. They give the ball to Severino who is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 12 innings of work this year after coming back from a right-shoulder and lat injury from last season. Looking at the right-hander's numbers from last season, Severino was not as effective on the road where he had a 3.99 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average .257 as compared to his 2.74 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .217 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Yankees have played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road with Severino on the mound — and they have also played 32 of their last 49 games Over the Total with Severino pitching at night. Furthermore, New York has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Severino pitching against a team with a winning record. Minnesota has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams that did not allow more than two runs in their last game. The Twins return home for the first time since September 22nd — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. The Over is also 7-1-2 in Minnesota’s last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Odorizzi who is 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirty starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in fifteen starts as compared to his 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 when on the road. Odorizzi also has a 4.01 ERA in night games with a 1.28 WHIP. The Twins have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Odorizzi facing a team from the AL East.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and the Over is 18-7-2 in the last 27 meetings between these two teams when playing in Minnesota. 25* MLB ALDS Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (907) and the Minnesota Twins (908) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Jake Odorizzi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 8 |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-101 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Washington Nationals (904) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (108-57) took a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 10-4 victory over the Nationals. Washington (95-71) looks to stave off elimination tonight having lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have now played 22 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Los Angeles has also played 19 of their last 27 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Hill who is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The left-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in six starts as compared to his 1.28 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 8-2-2 in the Dodgers’ last 12 road games with Hill on the mound — and the Over is also 5-0-1 in Los Angeles’ last 6 road games with Hill facing a team with a winning record. Washington’s bullpen let them down yesterday as they allowed nine runs to the Dodgers — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least six runs. The Over is now 4-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 games at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Washington has also played 15 of their last 23 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games in the NLDS. They counter with Scherzer who is 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven starts during the regular season. But the ace right-hander has not been the same since coming off the disabled list with a back injury. In his seven regular-season starts since his return, Scherzer had a 4.74 ERA over 38 innings of work. Scherzer also entered this series with a surprising 4.00 ERA in his 27 innings of work at home in playoff games with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 which are all numbers much higher than what he usually produces. Scherzer allowed three earned runs in 5 innings of work in the NL Wildcard game last Tuesday before striking out the side in the 8th inning in Game Two of this series on Friday. I don’t love the idea of Scherzer pitching on short rest from that appearance given his recent back troubles. The Nationals have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Scherzer pitching after a loss. Washington has also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Scherzer on the mound pitching in the playoffs. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-2 in the Nationals’ last 6 games with Scherzer pitching against the Dodgers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total when playing in Washington. Expect another higher-scoring game. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Washington FS1-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Washington Nationals (904) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Braves v. Cardinals -115 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (902) versus the Atlanta Braves (901) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Dallas Keuchel. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (99-66) took a 2-1 lead in this series yesterday with their comeback 3-1 victory over the Cardinals. St. Louis (92-73) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after blowing their 1-0 lead with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis should have won Game Three of this series — and they have still won 20 of their last 29 games at home. The Cardinals have also won 20 of their last 31 home games in expected close games where they are priced in the +/- 125 range. They give the ball to Hudson who is 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in thirty-two starts (thirty-three games). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.75 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in seventeen starts. If he gets in trouble early, he will be relieved by Miles Mikolas who started the opening game of this series. Mikolas is 9-14 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in thirty-two starts this season — and he has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.01 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .247. St. Louis has won 6 of their last 7 games at home with Hudson making the start. The Cardinals have also won 12 straight games with Hudson pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. Atlanta has still lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record. The Braves have also lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And this team has still lost 4 of their last 5 games in the NLDS. They counter with Keuchel who is 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.74 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.01 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296 in nine starts on the road. Atlanta has lost 3 of their last 4 road games with Keuchel pitching as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have lost 7 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Look for the Cardinals to extend this series to a decisive fifth game. 20* MLB Atlanta-St. Louis TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (902) versus the Atlanta Braves (901) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Astros v. Rays +1.5 |
|
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (905) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Houston (109-55) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 3-1 victory over the Rays. Tampa Bay (97-68) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay will be looking to stave off elimination this afternoon — and they have won 6 straight games after losing the first two games of a series. The Rays return home for the first time since September 25th — and they have won 9 of their last 12 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Additionally, Tampa Bay has won 22 of their last 28 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Rays have won 21 of their last 28 games at home — and they have won 9 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Morton who is 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander has been particularly effective at home where he owns a 2.59 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194. Tampa Bay has won 7 straight home games with Morton facing a team with a winning record. Houston has lost 14 of their last 23 games when leading in a playoff series. They counter with Greinke who is 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.74 moving forward. Greinke is also not as effective in day games where he has a 3.19 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Astros have also lost 6 of their last 7 games played in Tampa Bay’s Tropicana Field.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking in this game, because the Rays are hitting only .186 over their last five games, they are supported by an empirical angle that has been 65% effective since 1997. Tampa Bay is hitting .253 this season — and home teams who are no hitting better than .265 on the season while hitting no better than .200 over their last five games now facing an American League team with a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or lower have then covered the Run-Line (at +1.5 when priced up to -130 or -1.5 when priced up to +160) in 59 of these last 91 situations where these conditions applied. 10* MLB Houston-Tampa Bay MLB Network Run-Line Special with the Tampa Bay Rays (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (905) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Dodgers -142 v. Nationals |
|
10-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) versus the Washington Nationals (956) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (95-70) evened this best-of-five series at 1 game apiece on Friday with their 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. The Nationals used Max Scherzer for an inning of relief in that game — so his planned start for Game Three will be pushed back until tomorrow with Sanchez taking the start instead. Los Angeles had won eight straight games before that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has rebounded to win 51 of their last 74 games after a loss. The Dodgers have also won 41 of their last 52 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have won 7 straight games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 9 of their last 11 games in the NLDS. They give the ball to Ryu who is 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in twenty-nine starts this year. Ryu has been an effective stopper to losing streaks as the Dodgers have won 7 straight games with Ryu pitching after a loss. He is in fine form after pitching 7 shutout innings in San Francisco in his final start of the season — and Los Angeles has won 20 of their last 26 games with Ryu looking to follow up a Quality Start. The Dodgers have also won 13 of their last 17 games with Ryu pitching with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. Washington counters with Sanchez who is 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.24 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in fifteen starts. The Nationals have lost 5 of their last 7 home games with Sanchez facing a team with a winning record. Washington will be facing the pressure from home fans who have been conditioned to expect failure in the postseason. The Nationals have never advanced from the NLDS — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 home games in the playoffs. Washington has also lost 5 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers will feel comfortable playing in Nationals Park as they have won 5 of their last 6 games in Washington. With the pitching change away from Scherzer, let’s pounce on Los Angeles behind Ryu. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Washington TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) versus the Washington Nationals (956) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
10-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) and the Washington Nationals (956) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (95-70) evened this best-of-five series at 1 game apiece on Friday with their 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. The Nationals used Max Scherzer for an inning of relief in that game — so his planned start for Game Three will be pushed back until tomorrow with Sanchez taking the start instead. Los Angeles had won eight straight games before that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-0-1 in the Nationals’ last 4 games against an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Washington has also played 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs Over the Total with the series tied. Sanchez is 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.24 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in fifteen starts. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-2-1 in Los Angeles’ last 8 games after an off day. Additionally, the Over is 21-9-1 in the Dodgers’ last 31 road games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 26 road games with the Total set at 8 to 8.5, Los Angeles has played 18 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Ryu who is 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in twenty-nine starts this year. But while the left-hander was nearly unhittable at home this year with a 1.93 ERA along with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .21 in fourteen starts, those numbers rose to a 2.72 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a very pedestrian opponent’s batting average of .253 in his fifteen stars on the road. Ryu also sees his ERA rise to a 3.11 mark during night games with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in twenty starts. Ryu does not have a glowing postseason history either givens 5.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 26 2/3 innings in the playoffs. The Dodgers have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Nationals team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .273 batting average and an On-Base Percentage of .343 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total when playing in Washington. Expect a higher scoring game with at least one of these offenses breaking out for a big game. 25* MLB NLDS Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) and the Washington Nationals (956) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Braves v. Cardinals +113 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (958) versus the Atlanta Braves (957) listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (98-66) evened this series at 1-1 with their 3-0 win against the Cardinals on Friday. St. Louis (92-72) had won two in a row before that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has rebounded to win 12 of their last 17 games after a loss. They return home to Busch Stadium where they have won 20 of their last 28 home games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Cardinals have won 9 of their last 13 home games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Wainwright who is 14-10 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The right-hander does his best pitching at home where his ERA drops to a 2.56 mark along with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in sixteen starts. Wainwright has also been nasty during day games where he owns a 1.61 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in eight starts. The veteran also has 89 innings of postseason experience where he has posted a 3.03 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP. St. Louis has won 15 of their last 21 home games with Wainwright pitching against a team with a winning record. The Cardinals have also won 4 of their last 5 games with Wainwright looking to stop a losing streak. And in their last 14 games against the Braves with Wainwright on the mound, St. Louis has won 10 of these games. He should have success against this Atlanta team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Braves have lost 4 straight games after an off day — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 4 straight games on the road against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Braves have lost 4 straight playoff games on the road — and they have lost 12 of their last 16 games in the NLDS. They counter with the rookie Soroka who has a 13-4 record with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.14 mark with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .247 in nine starts during the day. Atlanta has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Soroka on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have won 20 of their last 28 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Look for St. Louis to take a 2-1 lead in this series. 25* MLB Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (958) versus the Atlanta Braves (957) listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-19 |
Rays v. Astros -1.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Tampa Bay Rays (953) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Houston (108-55) won the opening game of this best-of-five series yesterday afternoon with their 6-2 victory. The Astros have won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests. Tampa Bay (97-67) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston should build off the momentum from their victory yesterday. The Astros have won 35 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 41 of their last 53 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, Houston has won 11 of their last 15 home games in the playoffs — and they have won 16 of their last 23 home games this season against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Cole who is 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in thirty-three starts this season. The right-hander has been pitching his best as of late — he is 5-0 over his last five starts with a 1.00 ERA along with 60 strikeouts and just 5 bases-on-balls over those 36 innings. Cole has registered 326 punch-outs this season. The Astros have won 26 of their last 30 home games with Cole on the mound — and they have also won 11 of their last 12 games with Cole facing a team with a winning record. He faces a slumping Rays lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .212 batting average along with a .276 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .675 over that span. Tampa Bay has lost 6 of their last 7 games as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. The Rays have also lost 7 of their last 10 games in the playoffs — and they have lost 4 straight games on the road in the ALDS. They counter with Snell who is 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner has taken a step or two back this year in a season marred with a toe and then shoulder injuries with the latter requiring surgery. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he owns a 5.82 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in twelve starts. Tampa Bay has lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Snell pitching with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. He faces a healthy Astros lineup that scores 6.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .284 batting average along with a .359 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .875. Houston has won 22 of their last 28 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we will be laying in this game — but because Snell is averaging only 4.7 innings per start, the Astros are supported by empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. Houston has a bullpen WHIP of 1.21 this season — and teams with a bullpen WHIP of 1.25 or lower now facing a starting pitcher who does not average at least 5 innings per start have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line (priced at +100 to -190) in 90 of these last 132 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB ALDS Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Tampa Bay Rays (953) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-19 |
Twins v. Yankees -1.5 |
Top |
4-10 |
Win
|
107 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: New York (103-59) enters the postseason having lost two straight games as well as four of their last five games after their 6-1 loss in Texas to the Rangers on Sunday. Minnesota (101-61) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 5-4 loss in Kansas City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has bounced-back to win 21 of their last 24 games at home after a loss. The Yankees have also won 24 of their last 31 games after failing to score at least two runs in their last game. They return home where they have won 52 of their last 69 games — and they have also won 7 of their last 9 home games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Paxton who is 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-nine starts this season. The left-hander left after just one inning of work in his last start with tightness in his glute — but he looks too good to go tonight after that precautionary measure. Paxton has been sensational since the start of August where he is 10-0 with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 61 innings with 69 strikeouts over that span. Paxton has also been more effective at home where he owns a 3.35 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in fifteen starts. The Yankees have won 5 straight games with Paxton pitching at home — and they have also won 5 of their last 6 home games with Paxton facing a team with a winning record. Minnesota has not had success in the playoffs in recent memory. They have lost 22 of their last 27 games in the playoffs while also losing 6 straight playoff games on the road. Additionally, the Twins have lost 17 of their last 24 games in the ALDS. And in their last 32 road games, as an underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range, Minnesota has lost 24 of these games. They counter with Berrios who is 14-8 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.84 mark on the road — and he has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262 when pitching at night. The Twins have lost 7 of their last 8 games with Berrios facing a team with a winning record — and they have lost 19 of their last 24 road games with Berrios facing a team with a winning record. Furthermore, Minnesota has lost 7 straight road games with Berrios pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +150 to +200 price range. He does face a Bronx Bombers lineup that is hitting just .209 over their last five games — but the Yankees have won 17 of their last 18 games after not hitting better than .225 over their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: New York owns the Twins in the postseason as they have won ten straight games against them in the playoffs along with thirteen of their last fifteen encounters in the playoffs. Lastly, while none of the team trends referenced above take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we will be laying in this game, the Yankees are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 63% effective over the last five seasons. American League teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower who have not hit better than .225 over their last five games have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 46 of these last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB Network Run-Line of the Year with the New York Yankees (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-19 |
Cardinals -117 v. Braves |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-117 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 4:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (919) versus the Atlanta Braves (920) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (92-71) rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the top of the 8th inning to tie the game before score another four runs in the top of the 9th inning to win the opening game of this series by a 7-6 score. Atlanta (97-66) has lost four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This was a disastrous result for this Braves team with a host of horrors and nightmares marring this franchise from past postseason failures. Ronald Acuna did not run out an extra-base hit under the false assumption that it was a home run — and that turned out to be a fatal error for this team who needed every run they could muster. Acuna was benched earlier in the season by manager Brian Snitker after making the exact same mistake. This team has not learned how to win games — and now they carry the burden of a fan base that will be expecting them to find yet another way to lose a playoff game. Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home. They also have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a defeat. Additionally, the Braves have lost 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Foltynewicz who is 8-6 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander was a mess for most of the season before finally being sent down to the minors. He returned to the big leagues in August with improved velocity which helped him produce a 4-1 record with a 1.73 ERA. But he still has a rough 4.58 ERA along with a 1.31 WHIP in ten starts at home. He also has a career 7.64 ERA in seven starts against the Cardinals with a 6.75 ERA in his two starts against them this season. Atlanta has lost 12 of their last 16 home games with Foltynewicz pitching against a team with a winning record. He will be supported by yet another shaky Braves bullpen who are wavering in confidence after allowing six runs in the last two innings last night. The Cardinals are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .253 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 during that span. St. Louis has won 6 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 15 of their last 20 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cardinals have won 12 of their last 16 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They have also won 18 of their last 25 games after a victory by just one run. St. Louis has now won 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have won 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Flaherty who is 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander may have been the best pitcher in baseball over the second half of the season where he enjoyed a 0.93 ERA with 130 strikeouts in 106 1/3 innings of work. He also enjoys a nasty 1.48 ERA during day games. Flaherty comes off a strong outing where he did not allow an earned run in 7 innings of work at home against the Cubs — and the Cardinals have won 10 of their last 15 games with Flaherty looking to follow up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces a slumping Braves lineup that is scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .250 batting average along with a .318 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .726. Atlanta has also lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta needed to win yesterday’s game with them using Dallas Keuchel with the knowledge that the Cards have Flaherty on deck for today. This team now faces the strong possibility that they travel to St. Louis down 2-0 in this best-of-five series. St. Louis has won 10 of their last 13 games in Atlanta against the Braves. Look for Atlanta to find a way to lose … yet again. 20* MLB St. Louis-Atlanta TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (919) versus the Atlanta Braves (920) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (917) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (918) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Washington (94-69) rallied from a 3-1 deficit with three runs in the 8th inning to defeat Milwaukee in the NL Wild Card Playoff game on Tuesday with their 4-3 victory. Los Angeles (106-56) has won seven games in a row with their 9-0 shutout win in San Francisco on Sunday. The Dodgers host the first two games of this best-of-five series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 10-4-1 in the Nationals’ last 15 games after an off day — and the Under is also 5-2-2 in their last 9 opening games to a new series. Now after playing their last nine games at home, Washington goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing their three previous games at home — and they have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total after playing at least their last four games at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They give the ball to Corbin who is 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts this season. The left-hander has pitched very well in Dodger Stadium — in eleven career starts, he has a 2.97 ERA in this building. The Under is also 5-1-1 in Washington’s last 7 road games with Corbin facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team that has not been as effective against left-handed pitching. LA averages just 4.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .242 batting average along with a .313 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .751 with all those numbers below their season averages overall. Los Angeles has only allowed two runs over their last four games with three shutouts (two straight) during that stretch. The Dodgers have played 32 of their last 51 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 34-13-5 in the Dodgers’ last 52 games at home against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Buehler who is 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in thirty starts this season. The right-hander has been particularly tough at home where he enjoys a 2.86 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in fourteen starts. The Under is 19-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 28 home games with Buehler on the mound — and the Under is 11-0-2 in LA’s last 13 home games with Buehler facing a team with a winning record. Buehler has a 2.92 ERA in his two previous starts against the Nationals this season.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (917) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (918) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Cardinals v. Braves -134 |
|
7-6 |
Loss |
-134 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 5:02 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (916) versus the St. Lois Cardinals (915) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Miles Mikolas. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (97-65) enters the postseason having lost three straight games — as well as five of their last six contests — after their 7-6 loss in New York to the Mets on Sunday. St. Louis (91-71) closed out their regular season on Sunday with a 9-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs. The Braves host the first two games of this best-of-five series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta was resting Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna, Jr. to close out the regular season with home-field advantage in the NL Divisional Series locked-in — they should have both players healthy and back on the field tonight. The Braves have won 17 of their last 24 games after losing three in a row. Atlanta has also won 36 of their last 52 games after allowing at least five runs — and they have won a decisive 50 of their last 72 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have also won 36 of their last 52 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Keuchel who is 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in nineteen starts this season since signing with Atlanta midseason. The left-hander has a 2.87 ERA over his last eight starts which has resulted in a 5-3 record. Keuchel has been much more effective at home where he owns 2.74 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in ten starts. Atlanta has won 5 of their last 7 home games with Keuchel on the hill. St. Louis has lost 9 of their last 13 games after a shutout victory — and they have also lost 10 of their last 13 games after a shutout victory against a fellow NL Central rival. The Cardinals have also lost 15 of their last 21 games after an off day. Additionally, St. Louis has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And the Cardinals do not have a good recent history in the playoffs as they have lost 6 of their last 7 games in postseason — and they have also lost 6 straight playoff games on the road. They counter with Mikolas who is 9-14 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in thirty-two starts this season. But the right-hander has not nearly been as effective on the road where he has a 5.40 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .297 in seventeen starts. Mikolas faces a Braves team that has won 20 of their last 29 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 13 of their last 17 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Look for the Braves to take a 1-0 lead in this series with a win tonight. 20* MLB St. Louis-Atlanta TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (916) versus the St. Lois Cardinals (915) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Miles Mikolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-19 |
Rays v. A's OVER 7 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-112 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the Oakland A’s (914) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Sean Manaea. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (96-66) has lost two straight games after their 8-3 loss in Toronto to the Blue Jays as a money-line favorite priced in the -220 range. Oakland (97-65) enters the postseason having lost two of their last three games after their 3-1 loss in Seattle on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after an upset loss to an AL East rival — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss to a divisional rival when they were priced at least at -150. This is Tampa Bay’s fourth game on the road — and they have played 33 of their last 55 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road. Furthermore, the Rays have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +100. They give the ball to their ace in Morton who is 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-three starts this season. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.59 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 — but those numbers all rise to a 3.59 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in his sixteen starts on the road. Even worse, over his last five starts on the road, Morton has a rough 7.52 ERA. Tampa Bay has played 4 straight road games Over the Total with Morton on the mound. Oakland enters this series not hitting the ball very well — they have only scored one run in each of their last two games while hitting just .170 over their last three contests. The A’s have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to hit better than .175 over their last three games — and they have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last two games. They host this game where the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Oakland has also played 4 of their last 5 playoffs games Over the Total. Manager Bob Melvin has tapped Sean Manaea to be his starting pitcher tonight after the talented left-hander returned from a twelve-month hiatus after recovering from a torn labrum to produce a 4-0 record with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP in five starts last month. Before his injury last year, Manaea had a 12-9 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. But he was less effective at home last season where he had a 3.86 ERA as opposed to his 3.27 ERA on the road. Even this season, Manaea’s 2.13 ERA in two starts at home in contrasted by his 0.53 ERA in three starts on the road. The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Manaea pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. He faces a Rays team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The last time these two teams played it was back on June 23rd when Tampa Bat won in Oakland by an 8-2 score. The Rays have then played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least six runs. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the Oakland A’s (914) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Sean Manaea. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-19 |
Rays v. A's -122 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-122 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (914) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (913) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Oakland (97-65) enters the postseason having lost two of their last three games after their 3-1 loss in Seattle on Sunday. Tampa Bay (96-66) has lost two straight games after their 8-3 loss in Toronto to the Blue Jays as a money-line favorite priced in the -220 range.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONEY-LINE ON THE A’S: Oakland has bounced-back to win 26 of their last 32 games after a loss — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the A’s have won 10 of their last 13 games after an off day. Now this team returns home where they have won a decisive 45 of their last 76 games — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Oakland has also won 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Bob Melvin has tapped Sean Manaea to be his starting pitcher tonight after the talented left-hander returned from a twelve-month hiatus after recovering from a torn labrum to produce a 4-0 record with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP in five starts last month. Before his injury last year, Manaea had a 12-9 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. The A’s have won 10 of their last 14 home games with Manaea pitching as a favorite priced at -110 to higher. He will then likely give way to Mike Fiers who had a 15-4 record this season with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in thirty-three starts. I like Fiers coming into this game since he had a 2.90 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .217 in his seventeen starts at home. The Rays enter this single-elimination game swinging cold bats as they are scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .233 batting average along with a .298 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .735. Tampa Bay has lost 16 of their last 24 games after a loss by at least four runs. This is also a team that has lost a decisive 66 of their last 97 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Rays have also lost 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs. They give the ball to their ace in Morton who is 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-three starts this season. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.59 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 — but those numbers all rise to a 3.59 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in his sixteen starts on the road. Even worse, over his last five starts on the road, Morton has a rough 7.52 ERA. Tampa Bay has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Morton making the start against a team with a winning record — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Morton pitching with the Total set at 7 to 7.5.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s have won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has also won 20 of their last 28 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (914) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (913) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-19 |
Brewers +1.5 v. Nationals |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (911) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (912) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (89-73) plays in this single-elimination game having lost three straight games over the weekend in Colorado that culminated in a 4-3 loss to the Rockies on Sunday. Washington (93-69) has won eight in a row after their 8-2 victory at home over Cleveland on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Don’t dismiss this Milwaukee team just because they were swept over the weekend in Colorado — they have won eighteen of twenty games before dropping those three games. The Brewers have won 10 of their last 14 games after losing at least three games in a row —and they have bounced-back to win 6 of their last 8 games after a loss. And while they lost the last two games of that series by just one run, they have then won 15 of their last 22 games after losing their last two games by two runs or less. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games on the road. They give the ball to Woodruff who is 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander was out for two months with an oblique injury and has only pitched twice in two two-inning stints since his return from the disabled list — but he did not allow an earned run in either appearance. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging for Woodruff with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.60 and 3.38 moving forward this season. Milwaukee has won 6 of their last 8 road games with Woodruff on the hill — and they have won 11 of their last 13 games with Woodruff pitching at night. He will not likely pitch more than a handful of innings before giving way to Jordan Lyles who was 12-8 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. Lyles has been fantastic for the Brewers after being traded over to them from the Pirates. In his eleven starts with Milwaukee, Lyles has a 2.45 ERA over 58 2/3 innings of work — and the Brewers won ten of those games. Lyles also enjoys a 3.23 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in his eighteen starts at night. Washington has been crushing the ball as of late having scored at least eight runs in three straight contests — but they have then lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least seven runs in three straight games. The Nationals enter this single-elimination playoff game burdened by the memory of past postseason failures. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 playoff games — and they have also lost 7 of their last 9 playoff games at home. They give the ball to Scherzer who is 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven starts this season. But the ace right-hander has not been the same since coming off the disabled list with a back injury. In his seven starts since his return, Scherzer has a 4.74 ERA over 38 innings of work. Scherzer also has a surprising 4.00 ERA in his 27 innings of work at home in playoff games with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 which are all numbers much higher than what he usually produces. Washington has lost 8 of their last 12 home games with Scherzer pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They also have lost 10 of their last 13 home games in the playoffs with Scherzer on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends identified above do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we will be taking with this play. Because the Nationals have a slugging percentage of .454 this season, they fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 62% effective over the last five seasons. National League teams with a slugging percentage of .430 or higher who come off a game where they scored at least eight runs have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 100 of the last 161 situations (when priced in the +135 to -190 price range) when these conditions applied. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Brewers (911) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (912) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-19 |
Brewers v. Nationals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the Washington Nationals (912) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (89-73) plays in this single-elimination game having lost three straight games over the weekend in Colorado that culminated in a 4-3 loss to the Rockies on Sunday. Washington (93-69) has won eight in a row after their 8-2 victory at home over Cleveland on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have been crushing the baseball during this winning streak — they have scored at least eight runs in their last three games. Over their last seven games, Washington is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .302 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .891. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Nationals’ last 4 games after a victory —and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. They stay at home to host this playoff game where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 to 7.5. The Over is also 7-3-1 in the Nats’ last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Scherzer who is 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven starts this season. But the ace right-hander has not been the same since coming off the disabled list with a back injury. In his seven starts since his return, Scherzer has a 4.74 ERA over 38 innings of work. Scherzer also has a surprising 4.00 ERA in his 27 innings of work at home in playoff games with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 which are all numbers much higher than what he usually produces. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Scherzer on the hill — and they have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with Scherzer pitching at night. Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new series Over the Total. They counter with Woodruff who is 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander was out for two months with an oblique injury and has only pitched twice in two two-inning stints since his return from the disabled list. Woodruff has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and .227 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers rise to a 4.41 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in his nine starts on the road. The Brewers have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Woodruff on the mound when facing a team with a winning record. Woodruff will not likely pitch more than a couple of innings before giving way to Jordan Lyles. He has a 12-8 record this season with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in twenty-eight starts — but his ERA rises to a 4.36 mark in his fourteen starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on August 18th in Washington where the Nationals won by a 16-8 score. Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a road loss by at least eight runs. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 encounters Over the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the Washington Nationals (912) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-19 |
Rockies +1.5 v. Giants |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (961) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Tim Melville and Jeff Samardzija. THE SITUATION: Colorado (68-89) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Giants in the opening game of this series last night by an 8-5 score. San Francisco (75-82) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado has won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also won 15 of their last 24 games after scoring at least eight runs in their last contest. The Rockies have also won 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Colorado has won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games against NL West foes. They give the ball to Melville who is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in six starts this season. The journeyman right-hander has been much better in his two starts on the road with a 2.13 ERA along with a 0.87 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .159. He faces a slumping Giants team that is hitting just .223 over their last seven games with a .283 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .614 during that span. San Francisco has lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Giants have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. San Francisco has struggled at home where they have lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record — and they have lost 17 of their last 23 home games with the Total set at 8.5 to 10. The Giants have also lost 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Samardzija who is 11-12 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The sabermetrics are bearish on the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 5.05 moving forward. The former Notre Dame tight end has not been as effective at home either where he owns a 3.81 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in fifteen starts. San Francisco has lost 10 of their last 12 home games with Samardzija on the hill — and they have lost 4 straight home games with Samardzija facing a team with a losing record. The Giants have also lost 5 of their last 7 home games with Samardzija facing the Rockies.
FINAL TAKE: None of the team trends identified above take into the account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking in this game. Because the Rockies’ bullpen has pitched a combined 16 2/3 innings over their last two games, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 73% effective over the last five seasons. National League teams with a starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4.70 to 5.20 range along with a bullpen that has pitched at least 9 combined innings over their last two games have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 85 of these last 117 situations (when priced in the -190 to +165 range). 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Colorado Rockies (961) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Tim Melville and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-25-19 |
Yankees v. Rays -142 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (970) versus the New York Yankees (969) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Jonathan Loaisiga. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (94-64) has won the first two games of this series as well as five of their last six contests with their 2-1 victory over the Yankees in the opening game of this series. New York (102-56) saw their two-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 20 of their last 27 games after a win — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game. The Rays have also won 11 of their last 14 games after playing a game where no more than three combined runs were scored. Tampa Bay will be playing their sixth straight game at home after a four-game homestand against Boston. The Rays have won 7 of their last 10 home games after winning their last two games against an AL East rival — and they have won 45 of their last 65 games after playing at least their last five games at home. Tampa Bay has also won 20 of their last 27 games at home. They give the ball to Morton who is 15-6 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.75 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .201 in sixteen starts. The Rays have won 6 straight home games with Morton facing a team with a winning record. He comes off a strong start where he allowed just two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work at home against the Red Sox — and Tampa Bay has won 5 straight games with Morton looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a slumping Yankees team that is hitting just .232 over their last seven games with a .282 On-Base Percentage and OPS of .743. New York has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have lost 19 of their last 23 road games as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 range. The Yankees have also lost 5 of their last 7 games played on astroturf. They have tapped Loaisiga to make his first start since May 8th. He is 2-1 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings this year. He will serve as the opener before J.A. Happ pitches the bulk of the innings. The left-hander is 12-8 this season with a 5.01 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in thirty starts — this will be his first appearance after the 1st inning this season as he will likely serve as a long reliever in the playoffs for the Yankees. The 36-year old has lost velocity on his fastball which has led to a dip in his strikeouts. He is only striking out 20.3% of the batters he has faced this year while averaging 7.71 batters per 9 innings which is a big decline from his 26.3% strikeout rate last year along with a 9.78 K/9 innings clip. Happ has allowed 1.96 Home Runs per 9 innings this year as compared to his 1.37 Home Runs per 9 innings he allowed last season.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight games — but they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than four runs in six straight games. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Tampa Bay ESPN Special with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (970) versus the New York Yankees (969) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Jonathan Loaisiga. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-19 |
Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (967) and the Toronto Blue Jays (968) listing both starting pitchers Gabriel Ynoa and Jacob Waguespack. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (52-106) won the second game of this series last night by an 11-4 score. Toronto (64-94) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Baltimore has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after scoring at least 10 runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Orioles have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total again teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams from the AL East. They give the ball to Ynoa who is 1-9 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 106 2/3 innings this season. The right-hander particularly struggled on the road with a 6.34 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in 49 2/3 innings of work in seventeen appearances which include six starts. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Ynoa on the mound. And while their bullpen has thrown 13 1/3 innings of work over their last two games, they have then played a decisive 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after their bullpen pitched at least 9 combined innings over their last two games. Ynoa has surrendered 27 gopher balls this season — and he faces a Blue Jays team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 9-1-1 in Toronto’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has pitched a whopping 11 and 8 innings apiece in their last two games — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when they have pitched at least 5 innings in two straight games. Furthermore, the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a win — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 5-0-1 in Toronto’s last 6 games at home — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Waguespack who is 4-5 with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in twelve starts (fifteen games). The right-hander has struggled at home where he owns a 5.96 ERA along with a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .308 in four starts (six games). The Over is 3-0-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 4 games with Waguespack pitching on astroturf. He faces a Baltimore team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Orioles have scored 26 combined runs over their last two games — and they are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Toronto is averaging 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games themselves. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (967) and the Toronto Blue Jays (968) listing both starting pitchers Gabriel Ynoa and Jacob Waguespack. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-19 |
Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Washington Nationals (908) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Washington (87-69) won the opening game of their doubleheader today with the Phillies by a 4-1 score. The Nationals have now won four of their last five games while Philadelphia (79-76) has five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 games on the road — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Nola who is 12-6 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The sabermetrics indicate that Nola is overachieving this season with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.14 and 3.83 respectively moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.99 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in fourteen starts as compared to his 2.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average at home. The Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Nola facing a team with a winning record. Washington has seen the Over go 5-2-2 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. The Nationals have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Over the Total in the month of September. They counter with Scherzer who is 10-7 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-six starts this season. Scherzer does not seem to be 100% right now as he has a 4.50 ERA since coming off the disabled list back on August 25th. The right-hander has been not quite as good at home as well where he has a 2.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .225 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as opposed to his 2.64 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 17-6-1 in Washington’s last 24 games with Scherzer pitching against fellow NL East opponents. The Nationals have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Scherzer pitching against the Phillies.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Washington Nationals (908) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-19 |
Rangers v. A's UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Mike Fiers. Texas (74-79) has lost five straight games after their 3-2 loss in Houston yesterday. Oakland (92-61) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 1-0 win over Kansas City on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an off day. Texas goes back on the road where the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season. The Rangers have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record overall, Texas has played 19 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Minor who is 13-9 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.63 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .218 in sixteen starts as compared to his 4.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .264 opponent’s batting average at home. The Under is 19-6-1 in the Rangers’ last 26 road games with Minor on the mound — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games with Minor pitching as an underdog. He faces an A’s lineup that is hitting just .235 over their last seven games with a meager .310 On-Base Percentage during that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in Oakland’s last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The A’s have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than four runs. Oakland defeated the Royals by a 2-1 score on Tuesday — and they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two straight games just one run. The A’s have also played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. They counter with Fiers who is 14-4 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The right-hander has been at his best at home where he owns a 3.15 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in sixteen starts. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Fiers pitching with the Total set at 8 to 8.5. They also have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total with Fiers pitching as a big favorite priced at -175 to -250. He faces a Rangers’ team that is hitting just .246 over their last seven games with a .307 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .697 during that span. The Under is 26-8-1 in Texas’ last 35 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s have won the last five meetings between these two teams — and the Rangers have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when looking to avenge at least four straight losses. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Mike Fiers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-18-19 |
Mets -144 v. Rockies |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (903) versus the Colorado Rockies (904) listing both starting pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Jeff Hoffman. THE SITUATION: New York (78-73) snapped a two-game losing streak yesterday with their 6-1 victory over the Rockies. Colorado (66-86) saw their four-game winning streak end with that defeat.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York should build off their momentum as they have won 22 of their last 31 games after a loss — and they have also won 17 of their last 24 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have also won 17 of their last 24 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. New York remains motivated to keep winning as they are still alive in the National League playoff race — they are four games out of the second wild-card spot with eleven games left in the season. The Mets have won 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record — and they have also won 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, New York has won 33 of their last 51 road games when priced at least at -125 as the favorite. They give the ball to Syndergaard who is 10-8 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. Thor should be happy this afternoon as he got his wish to not have Wilson Ramos serve as his backstop — he has a 5.20 ERA in his sixteen starts with Ramos calling his pitches. Syndergaard prefers Rene Rivera or Tomas Nido as his battery mate — and the proof is in the pudding as he owns a 2.20 ERA in his eleven combined starts with one of those catchers. The right-hander has been more effective during day games where he enjoys a 2.59 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and a nasty opponent’s batting average of just .184. Syndergaard has also been better on the road where he owns a 3.20 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.99 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average at home. The Mets have won 6 of their last 7 road games with Syndergaard when priced as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The faces a Rockies team that has lost 11 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 12 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have lost 14 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than one run in their last game. The Rockies have lost 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also lost 11 of their last 16 home games as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Hoffman who is 2-6 with a 7.03 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been crushed in afternoon affairs where he has a 1.96 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .329 in four starts. Hoffman also struggles at Coors Field where he has a 7.24 ERA along with a 1.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .328 in seven home starts. Colorado has lost 6 of their last 7 home games with Hoffman pitching as the underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .504 Slugging Percentage and an OPS of .804.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 14 of their last 20 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one run. With the Rockies not making the playoffs this season, look for Syndergaard to pitch well against an overmatched Hoffman. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Mets (903) versus the Colorado Rockies (904) listing both starting pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Jeff Hoffman. Best of luck for us — Frank (and follow Frank on Twitter at @FrankSawyer_HS where he has posted his Wednesday Worries which identifies two NFL side situations this weekend of which he is staying far, far away).
|
09-17-19 |
Padres v. Brewers -133 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (954) versus the San Diego Padres (953) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Chris Paddack. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (81-69) has won thirteen of their last sixteen games with their 5-1 win over the Padres in the opening game of this series. San Diego (68-82) has lost five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have won 19 of their last 24 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Brewers have won 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Woodruff who is coming off the disabled list after dealing with an oblique injury. The right-hander has an 11-3 record this season with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in twenty starts. Woodruff had been enjoying a breakout season this year with increased velocity and spin on his fastball which saw him strikeout 28.3% of the batters he faced. Woodruff has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.24 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in eleven starts. Milwaukee has won 12 of their last 13 home games with Woodruff on the hill — and they have won 10 straight home games with Woodruff pitching with the Total set at 8.5 to 10. Woodruff will be on a pitch count tonight with his first start off the DL — he will be followed up by Gio Gonzalez who is 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA in sixteen starts this year. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.25 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .209 in seven starts as opposed to his 1.44 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average when on the road. San Diego has lost 8 of their last 10 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Padres have also lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Paddack who will be making his last start of the season before San Diego shuts him down for the year. The rookie right-hander has a 9-7 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in twenty-five starts this season. He comes off a great start where he did not allow an earned run in 6 innings of work at home against the Cubs — but the Padres have then lost 5 of their last 6 games with Paddack looking to follow up a Quality Start. Despite that nice effort, Paddack has shown signs of tiring out this summer. After posting a sparkling 2.84 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP in the first half of the regular season, he saw those numbers decline to a 4.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP since the All-Star break. He has already pitched 45 2/3 more innings than he did last year between Class-A and Double-A. Paddack has also been more effective at home in spacious Petco Park where he enjoys a 3.06 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .188 — but in his fourteen starts on the road, those numbers increase to a 3.65 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Paddack on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has won 8 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (954) versus the San Diego Padres (953) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Chris Paddack. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-19 |
Nationals v. Cardinals +1.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (904) plus the points versus the Washington Nationals (903) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (83-66) has lost their last two games after their 7-6 loss to Milwaukee. Washington (82-66) snapped a two-game losing streak yesterday with a 7-0 win at home over Atlanta.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: St. Louis stranded only three runners yesterday while scoring six runs — and they have won 28 of their last 40 games after not leaving more than three runners on base in their last game. They have also bounced back to win 9 of their last 11 games after a loss. The Cardinals have also won 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. St. Louis stays at home where they have won 23 of their last 32 games — and they have also won 11 of their last 16 home games as the money-line underdog. They give the ball to Hudson who is 15-7 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in twenty-nine starts (30 appearances). The ground ball pitcher has been outstanding as of late with a 5-1 record over his last six starts along with a 1.41 ERA spanning those 38 1/3 innings where he has surrendered a mere 16 base hits. Hudson was saddled with a 1.56 WHIP in the first half of the season but he has a 1.25 WHIP after the All-Star break along with a 0.84 WHIP over those last six starts. Hudson has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.92 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in fifteen starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .270 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cardinals have won 5 straight home games with Hudson on the mound. And while he comes off a strong start where he allowed only two earned runs on the road at Coors Field against the Rockies in 6 innings of work — and St. Louis has won 11 of their last 14 games with Hudson following up a Quality Start. He faces a Nationals team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. This team has also lost 4 straight opening games to a new season. They counter with Strasburg who is 17-6 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in thirty starts. But while the right-hander has a 3.33 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 at home in thirteen starts, those numbers rise to a 3.61 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 on the road. He faces a Cardinals team that has won 20 of their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Nationals have also lost 5 of their last 6 games against St. Louis.
FINAL TAKE: I considered taking the Cardinals as the underdog but I remain concerned a bit in going against Strasburg who has a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts. But Washington’s bullpen has an ERA of 5.87 this season which helps to place the Nationals into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has 57% effective over the last five seasons. Teams with a bullpen ERA of 5.50 or higher using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.50 or lower over his last three starts have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 74 of these last 131 situations where these conditions applied. With the price of the +1.5 Run-Line below my -150 price threshold, let's invest in the insurance of getting +1.5 Runs with this very live dog. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the St. Louis Cardinals (904) plus the points versus the Washington Nationals (903) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he fortunately passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).
|
09-12-19 |
Yankees v. Tigers OVER 10.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 5:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (929) and the Detroit Tigers (930) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Spencer Turnbull. THE SITUATION: Detroit (43-100) has won three of their last five games after their 12-11 win over the Yankees in the opening game of this series on Tuesday. New York (95-51) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with that loss. Yesterday’s game was postponed due to weather so this pitching matchup represents the second game of their afternoon double-header.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is now a decisive 51-25-3 in the Yankees’ last 79 games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Additionally, New York has played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total when priced at least at -175 as the favorite. The Bronx Bombers have also played 35 of their last 56 games Over the Total with the number set at 10 or higher. They give the ball to Sabathia who comes off the disabled list to make this start — he is 5-8 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in twenty starts this year. The veteran left-hander has struggled in the second-half of the season with a 7.77 ERA in his six starts since the All-Star break. He has been particularly ineffective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 6.75 mark along with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .312. New York has played 4 straight games Over the Total with Sabathia pitching on the road. He will be followed up by Domingo German with manager Aaron Boone looking to limit the innings of both pitchers going into the postseason. The right-hander has a 17-4 record with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season — and he has struggled on the road with a 5.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 as opposed to his 2.35 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .197 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. They face a hot-hitting Tigers team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .320 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .720 over that span (which all compare favorably to their 3.7/.240/291/.680 splits for the entire season). Detroit has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home. And in their last 7 second games of a double-header, the Tigers have played 5 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Turnbull who is 3-14 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.92 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .281 in fourteen starts. Turnbull also has a 5.07 ERA in his twelve starts during the day with a 1.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296. The Over is 3-0-2 in Detroit’s last 5 games with Turnbull facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .264 batting average along with a .330 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .907.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams entering the opening game of this afternoon’s doubleheader. With bullpens strained a bit today (especially after last night’s scoring fest), except a high scoring second game in this double-header. 25* MLB American League Getaway Game Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (929) and the Detroit Tigers (930) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Spencer Turnbull. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-11-19 |
Reds v. Mariners UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Seattle Mariners (980) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Marco Gonzales. THE SITUATION: Seattle (59-86) snapped a six-game losing streak last night with their 4-3 win over the Reds. Cincinnati (67-78) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of the last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. And while Cincinnati has not scored more than four runs in each of their last three games, they have then played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in at least three straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight contests. The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 34-16-1 in their last 51 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Gray who is 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The veteran right-hander has allowed only 12 combined earned runs over his last twelve starts. Gray has only allowed one earned run over his last two starts — and Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Gray pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in two straight starts. Gray has also been more effective on the road where he has a 2.58 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .189 in thirteen starts as opposed to his 2.90 ERA with a .212 opponent’s batting average at home. The Reds have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when his team is pitching as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 range. He should thrive against this slumping Mariners lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .172 batting average, .241 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .564 over that span. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mariners are hitting just .161 over their last five games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not hitting better than .200 over their last five games. Furthermore, Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 4 games in Interleague play, the Mariners have played all 4 games Under the Total. They counter with Gonzales who is 14-11 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 4.32 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in fourteen starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Gonzales on the hill. He faces a Reds team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .234 batting average in those contests. Cincinnati has played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing at Seattle. Expect another lower scoring game. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Seattle Mariners (980) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Marco Gonzales. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-10-19 |
Pirates v. Giants OVER 8.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (909) and the San Francisco Giants (910) listing both starting pitchers Mitch Keller and Johnny Cueto. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (63-81) snapped a two-game losing streak yesterday with their 6-4 victory over the Giants in the opening game of this series. They scored four runs in the top of the 9th inning to pull out that win. San Francisco (69-75) has no lost two straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have seen the Over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a win — and the Over is a decisive 41-18-4 in their last 63 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Pittsburgh has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Keller who is 1-3 with an 8.18 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in eight starts this season. The 23-year old right-hander has shuttled back and forth between the majors and minors this season but the Pirates want to use these September games as an opportunity to audition for next year. He has done his best pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park where he owns a 4.76 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262 — but those numbers skyrocket in his four starts on the road where he has an 11.81 ERA with a 2.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .423. The Over is 3-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 4 games on the road with Keller on the hill. He faces a Giants team that has seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 5-2-1 in San Francisco’s last 8 games after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Giants are slumping with their bats as of late as they have not scored more than those four runs last night in three straight games. San Francisco is also hitting just .193 over their last five games — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after hitting no better than .200 in their last five games. The Giants have also played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight contests. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Francisco’s last 5 games at home — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Cueto who is making his season debut after recovering from Tommy John surgery which has kept him on the shelf for thirteen months. The 33-year old right-hander was 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in nine starts last year before suffering his elbow injury. The sabermetrics were not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.47 and 4.52 from his peripheral numbers. Cueto was not as effective at home either where he had a 5.19 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .333 in five starts as compared to his 1.33 ERA, 0.56 WHIP and .125 opponent’s batting average on the road. Those disparate home/road splits were consistent with his numbers two years ago with a deeper sample size as he had a 4.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average at home in twelve starts as compared to his 4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Over is 19-5-2 in the Giants’ last 26 home games with Cueto on the hill. The Pirates have played 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 14-6-2 in their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 9-3-3 in the last 15 games between these two teams played in San Francisco’s AT&T Park. Expect a higher-scoring game tonight. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (909) and the San Francisco Giants (910) listing both starting pitchers Mitch Keller and Johnny Cueto. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-10-19 |
Rays -130 v. Rangers |
|
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (917) versus the Texas Rangers (918) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Yarbrough and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (86-59) has won five straight games — as well as eleven of their last twelve contests — after their 8-3 win over Toronto on Sunday. Texas (72-73) has won four in a row with their 10-4 win at Baltimore on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 20 of their last 26 games after a victory — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Rays have also 5 of their last 7 games after an off day. Tampa Bay has been good road warriors who have won 37 of their last 52 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Yarbrough who is 11-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in 121 1/3 innings of work which includes ten starts. The left-hander has been entrusting to be a regular starting pitcher for this team that was previously using him as a bulk pitcher after using an opener. In his last six appearances which includes five starts, Yarbrough has a 2.25 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .195 — and his team has won five of these games. Yarbrough has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.42 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .174 in 67 innings which includes five starts. The Rays have won 6 of their last 7 games with Yarbrough making the start. Texas has lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Rangers have also lost 6 of their last 7 games after an off day. Texas returns home for the first time since September 1st — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Additionally, the Rangers have lost 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 40 of their last 59 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Lynn who is 14-10 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The right-hander is facing as of late — over his last six starts, he is 0-4 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Lynn has not been as effective at home either where he owns a 3.86 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in fourteen starts as opposed to his 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244. The Rangers have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Lynn facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won their last 4 games played in Arlington against the Rangers. Expect them to continue their playoff push tonight. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the on the Tampa Bay Rays (917) versus the Texas Rangers (918) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Yarbrough and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-04-19 |
Padres v. Diamondbacks -135 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Chris Paddack. THE SITUATION: Arizona (72-67) has won the first two games of this series — as well as eight of their last nine games — with their 2-1 victory over the Padres last night. San Diego (64-74) has lost five of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona remains alive in the National League playoff picture as they are just 3 1/2 games behind the Cubs for the second NL playoff wildcard spot. The Diamondbacks should build off their momentum as they have won 6 of their last 7 games after a win. They also have won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Arizona has now won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they are 11-6-1 in their last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Gallen who is 2-4 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twelve starts this season. Since being traded from Miami, the 24-year old right-hander has a 2.88 ERA in his five starts in a Diamondbacks uniform. Gallen has been more effective when pitching at home this year where he owns a 1.30 WHIP along with a .200 opponent’s batting average in six starts. His teams have won 4 of his last 5 starts including the last three when they were favored at a -110 or better price with him on the mound making the start. San Diego has lost 4 straight games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Padres have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Paddack who is 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in thirteen starts. The rookie left-hander had endured a 6.17 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break but found a glimpse of his first-half form in his last start at San Francisco where he allowed only one run in 7 innings of work. The sabermetrics have been calling for regression for months with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.99 and 4.22 respectively for Paddack moving forward. Paddack has not been as effective on the road either where he has a 3.93 ERA along with 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 as compared to his 3.40 ERA along with a sterling 0.88 WHIP and .192 opponent’s batting average in his ten starts in the spacious pitcher-friendly Petco Park. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road with Paddack on the mound. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks lineup that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .285 batting average along with a .336 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .856 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has won 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Chris Paddack. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-04-19 |
Mets v. Nationals OVER 10 |
|
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (901) and the Washington Nationals (902) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (78-59) rallied from a 10-4 deficit in the bottom of the 9th inning last night to pull out an 11-10 victory over the Mets. New York (70-68) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least five earned runs — and this includes them playing eleven of these last fifteen situations Over the Total. Additionally, New York has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring at least 10 runs in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a game where at least 20 combined runs were scored. They give the ball to Wheeler who is 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-six starts this season. The right-hander comes off a strong outing against the Phillies where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of work — but the Mets have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total with Wheeler coming off a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. Wheeler does see his WHIP rise to a 1.38 mark on the road due to an opponent’s batting average of .279 in fourteen starts. New York has seen the Over go 6-2-2 in their last 10 road games with Wheeler making the start. Wheeler also has a 5.27 ERA in twelve daytime starts. The Mets have also played 4 straight games Over the Total with Wheeler facing the Nationals. In his career, Wheeler is 4-10 with a 5.17 ERA in seventeen starts against Washington — and he is 0-2 with an ugly 7.94 ERA in four starts against them this season. He faces a hot lineup that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average and a .837 OPS during that span. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Washington’s last 6 home games — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games with the Total set at 10 or higher. The Over is also 5-0-2 in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Sanchez who is 8-6 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The sabermetrics are troubling for the veteran right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.25 and 5.06 moving forward. Sanchez has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.23 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in twelve starts. The Nationals have played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Sanchez pitching wit the Total set at 10 to 10.5. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .276 batting average along with a .338 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .818. The Over is also 7-2-1 in New York’s last 10 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Expect a high scoring afternoon affair. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (901) and the Washington Nationals (902) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-19 |
Angels v. A's -1.5 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
106 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oakland A’s (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Jaime Barria. THE SITUATION: Oakland (78-58) has lost two straight games after blowing two late leads against the Yankees over the weekend culminating in a 5-4 loss in New York on Sunday. Los Angeles (65-73) has lost three of their last four games — as well as eight of their last ten contests — with their 4-3 loss to Boston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Oakland has won 22 of the last 28 games after a loss — and they have won 20 of their last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The A’s have also won 8 of their last 10 games after an off day. Oakland returns home where they have won 19 of their last 26 games — and they have won a decisive 45 of their last 62 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Fiers who is 13-3 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander is unbeaten in his last twenty starts with his last loss occurring way back on May 1st. Fiers has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.92 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in fifteen starts. The A’s have won 26 of their last 32 home games with Fiers making the start. He faces a slumping Angels lineup that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .211 batting average along with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .675 over that span. Los Angeles has also lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Angels have lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. And while the LA bullpen did not allow an earned run on Sunday, they have then lost 15 of their last 21 games after a game where their bullpen did not surrender an earned run. They counter with Barria who is 4-7 with a 6.10 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 62 innings of work. The left-hander has been a disaster when pitching on the road where he has an 8.24 ERA with a 1.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .309 in 39 1/3 innings consisting of nine games which include seven starts. The Angels have lost 4 straight games on the road with Barria on the hill. He faces an A’s team that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .283 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .857. Oakland has won 22 of their last 30 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 25 of their last 34 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s have won the last three games in this series after the last meeting at the end of June — and the Angels have lost 28 of their last 32 games when playing with at least double-revenge. Lastly, because Oakland has a slugging percentage of .447 this season, the Angels fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 51% effective over the last five seasons. LA is hitting .252 this season — and American League road underdogs with a batting average no better than .260 now facing an American League team with a slugging percentage of .440 or higher have then failed to ver the +1.5 Run-Line in 103 of the last 201 situations (priced in the -160 to +115 range). 25* MLB American League West Run-Line of the Year with the Oakland A’s (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Jaime Barria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-19 |
Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (977) and the Milwaukee Brewers (978) listing both starting pitchers Dereck Rodriguez and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (77-60) has won four of their last five games as well as ten of their last twelve contests with their 3-1 victory over the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (66-71) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win. St. Louis has also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. And while the Cardinals have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after they did not score more than four runs in at least three straight games. St. Louis has played a decisive 31 of their last 44 games at home Under the Total — and this includes them playing nine of their last ten home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 8-7 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The right-hander has been outstanding since the All-Star break with a 0.98 ERA in 55 1/3 innings of work after going 4-1 in the month of August where he enjoyed a 0.71 ERA while striking out 47 batters in 38 innings. Flaherty comes off a strong outing where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work at Milwaukee — and the Under is 15-5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 21 games with Flaherty looking to follow up a Quality Start. Flaherty has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.67 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in thirteen starts. St. Louis has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Flaherty on the hill. He faces a slumping Giants lineup that is scoring just 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .233 batting average, .267 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .629. The Under is also 5-2-1 in San Francisco’s last 8 games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or higher. The Under is 12-4-2 in the Giants’ last 18 games after a loss — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the Giants’ last 9 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Giants have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog priced at +200 or higher. They counter with Rodriguez who is 5-7 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 80 1/3 innings of work. Rodriguez has been a disaster at home in AT&T Park where he has been saddled with a 6.27 ERA along with a 1.58 WHIP — but in his 47 1/3 innings on the road, the right-hander has a 4.94 ERA along with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .255. The Under is 13-6-1 in San Francisco’s last 20 games with Rodriguez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals offense that is not tearing the cover off the ball right now: they are scoring only 4.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .247 batting average along with a .308 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .713.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 36-16-2 in the Cardinals last 54 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (977) and the Milwaukee Brewers (978) listing both starting pitchers Dereck Rodriguez and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-19 |
Mets -106 v. Phillies |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-106 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (963) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (964) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Zach Eflin. THE SITUATION: New York (69-66) has won two straight games with their 6-3 victory over the Phillies in the second game of this series. Philadelphia (69-65) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 21 of their last 28 games after a win — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have also won 4 straight games on the road — and they have won 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Stroman who is 7-12 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-six starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road in his work with the Blue Jays and now the Mets — he has a 2.91 ERA along with a 1.28 WHP in eleven starts on the road as compared to his 3.59 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at home. His teams have won 4 of their last 5 games when he is making the start. Philadelphia has lost 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also lost 7 of their last 10 home games as the underdog. They counter with Eflin who is 8-11 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty-two starts (26 appearances overall). The sabermetrics are not encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 4.84 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.60 ERA in ten starts (12 games) as opposed to his 4.41 ERA on the road. The Phillies have lost 4 of their last 5 home games with Eflin on the hill. Philly has also lost 11 of their last 12 games with Eflin facing a team with a winning record. Eflin does come off a nice start on the road where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work — but he had an ugly 0-4 mark with an 8.42 ERA in his previous ten appearances before that triumph. Philadelphia has then lost 5 of their last 6 games with Eflin looking to follow up a Quality Start. Eflin also has a 6.00 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have had great success as of late against right-handed starting pitchers as they have won 22 of their last 28 games against righties — and this includes them winning thirteen of their last sixteen games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (963) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (964) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Zach Eflin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-19 |
Reds v. Cardinals -125 |
|
6-10 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 1:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (902) versus the Cincinnati Reds (901) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Trevor Bauer. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (73-59) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 4-1 loss at Milwaukee. Cincinnati (63-70) had won three in a row themselves before a 4-3 loss at Miami on Thursday. This opening game of today’s double-header is a makeup from last night’s rainout.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This was almost a play for us last night before I decided there was just not enough evidence to support playing against Trevor Bauer. Delaying this matchup until this afternoon tilts things in favor of endorsing the play. Bauer is now pitching on five days rest — and his teams have lost 11 of their last 17 games when Bauer is pitching with five or six days of rest. Bauer has a 10-11 record with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-nine starts this year pitching for Cleveland and now the Reds — but his ERA rises to a 4.80 clip when he pitches during day games. Bauer also sees his WHIP and opponent’s batting average rise to a 1.34 and .249 mark in his fifteen starts on the road as compared to his 1.19 WHIP and .210 opponent’s batting average at home. Cincinnati has lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have also lost 24 of their last 33 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range. Furthermore, the Reds have lost 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Bauer facing a red-hot Cardinals lineup that has scored 7.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .305 batting average along with a .399 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .937 over that span. St. Louis is dominant at home where they have won 16 of their last 21 games — and they have won 13 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Hudson who is 13-6 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in twenty-six starts (27 games). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.97 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Cardinals have won 7 of their last 8 home games with Hudson on the mound — and they have won 11 straight games with Hudson facing a team with a losing record. And while Hudson comes off a six shutout innings of work at home in his last start versus Colorado — and St. Louis has won 10 of their last 12 games with Hudson looking to follow up a Quality Start. He should pitch well against this Reds team that has lost 7 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has also lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has won a decisive 35 of their last 52 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Cards have also won their last 4 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (902) versus the Cincinnati Reds (901) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Trevor Bauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-19 |
Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-8 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (963) and the San Francisco Giants (964) listing both starting pitchers Dinelson Lamet and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Diego (62-71) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-3 score. San Francisco (65-68) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win. Additionally, the Under is 4-0-1 in San Diego’s last 5 games on the road against teams with a losing record. And in their last 25 road games in the season half of the season, the Padres have played 19 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Lamet who is 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has seen the velocity on his fastball approach 96 miles per hour which has helped him generate swinging strikes in 13.8% of his pitches. The sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.01 and 3.84 moving forward based off his deeper peripheral numbers. Over his last seven starts, Lamet has a 2-0 record with a 3.75 ERA. He also has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.12 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts. San Diego has played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total with Lamet pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. He faces a Giants team that scores only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .228 batting average along with a .289 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .651. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Giants’ last 10 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is also 13-5-1 in San Francisco’s last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the Under is 13-3-2 in the Giants’ last 18 games after a loss. The Under is also 15-6-3 in San Fran’s last 24 home games against teams with a losing record. And in the Giants’ last 10 games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Bumgarner who is 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The lefty has been on fire over his last twelve starts as he enjoys a 5-1 record with a 2.96 ERA over that span. The veteran also loves facing the Padres against which he sports a 3.47 ERA in 35 games (34 starts). Bumgarner has been much better at home where he owns a 2.95 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in fifteen starts. The Under is 5-1-2 in San Francisco’s last 8 home games with Bumgarner facing a team with a losing record. The Giants have also played 12 of their last 14 home games with Bumgarner facing a fellow NL West foe. The Padres are scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .185 batting average along with a .255 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .573.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (963) and the San Francisco Giants (964) listing both starting pitchers Dinelson Lamet and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-19 |
Mets v. Phillies -142 |
Top |
11-5 |
Loss |
-142 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (954) versus the New York Mets (953) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (69-63) has won five of their last eight games with their 12-3 victory over Pittsburgh on Wednesday. New York (67-66) has lost six straight games after their 4-1 loss to the Cubs yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won a decisive 42 of their last 65 games after scoring at least eight runs in their last game. They also have won 9 of their last 10 games after scoring at least twelve runs in their last contest — and they have won 18 of their last 24 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record — and they have won 6 straight games against teams with a winning record overall. They give the ball to Nola who is 12-4 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander endured a slow start of the season but he has been in top form this summer. Since the start of July, Nola has a 6-2 record with a 2.61 ERA along with a 1.02 WHIP in 72 1/3 innings of work while striking out 74 batters. Nola comes off a solid start where he allowed three runs in 7 innings of work at Miami — and the Phillies have won 28 of their last 39 games with Nola looking to follow up a Quality Start. Nola has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.94 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in sixteen starts. Philadelphia has won 30 of their last 41 home games with Nola on the hill. The Phillies have also won 4 of their last 5 home games with Nola facing a team with a winning record. And in their last 9 games with Nola pitching with the Total set at 9 or 9.5, Philadelphia has won all 9 games. He should pitch another great game against this slumping Mets team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .220 batting average along with a .265 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .625 over that span. New York has lost 4 straight games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Mets have also lost 25 of their last 37 games after losing at least three in a row. Now after playing their last nine games at home, New York goes back on the road where they have lost 21 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, New York has lost 8 of their last 10 games after playing at least seven straight games at home. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Mets have lost all 6 games. They counter with Wheeler who is 9-7 with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-five stats. The right-hander is struggling as of late with a 6.75 ERA along with a 1.75 WHIP over his last three starts. Wheeler has not been as effective on the road either as he owns a 4.58 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in thirteen road starts. New York has lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Wheeler facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Phillies team that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .282 batting average, .373 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .887. Philadelphia has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Nola facing a team the Mets. New York has lost their last 6 games in Philadelphia against the Phillies. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (954) versus the New York Mets (953) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-19 |
Braves -135 v. Blue Jays |
Top |
9-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (975) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (976) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Jacob Waguespack. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (80-54) has lost two straight games with their 3-1 loss to the Blue Jays in the opening game of this series. Toronto (54-80) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has bounced-back to win 17 of their last 25 games after a loss — and they have won 19 of their last 27 road games after a loss by two runs or less in their last contest. The Braves have also won 17 of their last 26 games after losing two in the row. Additionally, Atlanta has won 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have still won 20 of their last 28 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have won 13 of their last 15 road games as a favorite priced in the -125 to -175 price range. They give the ball to Foltynewicz who is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed only one run in 7 innings of work where he allowed only two hits on the road against the Mets. For the season, the right-hander has a 4-5 record with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. Folty dealt with elbow soreness in the spring which impacted his velocity — and he endured a disastrous first half of the season that eventually prompted the Braves to send him down to the minors. In his four starts since being promoted back to the big leagues, Foltynewicz’s velocity has improved — and he has a 3.91 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 23 innings of work. Foltynewicz has been more effective on the road this year where he has a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in seven starts as opposed to his 1.50 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. Atlanta has won 4 straight road games with Foltynewicz on the hill. The Braves have also won 4 of their last 5 games with Foltynewicz looking to follow up a Quality Start. He should have success against this Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .223 batting average along with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .676. Toronto has lost 27 of their last 43 home games against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher. The Blue Jays have lost 40 of their last 58 games after a win — and they have lost 18 of their last 23 games after a victory by two runs or less. And while the Toronto bullpen pitched 7 innings last night, they have then lost 22 of their last 28 games after a game where their bullpen logged in at least 7 innings of work in their last game. The Blue Jays have still lost 16 of their last 21 games in Interleague play — and they have lost eight of their last ten games at home against teams from the National League. Toronto has also lost 39 of their last 58 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Waguespack who is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 52 innings of work. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.74 and 4.91 moving forward. Waguespack has not been as effective at home either where he owns a 5.21 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP as compared to his 2.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have won 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (975) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (976) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Jacob Waguespack. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-19 |
Pirates v. Phillies -144 |
|
3-12 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (976) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (975) listing both starting pitchers Vincent Velasquez and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (56-76) has won four of their last five games with their 5-4 win over the Phillies last night. Philadelphia (68-63) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have won 23 of their last 31 games after a loss by just one run. The Phillies have still won 11 of their last 16 games at home with the Total set at 10 or 10.5. They give the ball to Velasquez who is 5-7 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 92 1/3 innings of work. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.22 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 32 innings of work. Philadelphia has won 8 of their last 11 games at home with Velasquez on the mound — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games with Velasquez facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this Pirates team that has lost 20 of their last 28 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh has lost 9 of their last 12 games after a win — and they have lost 12 of their last 17 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Pirates have lost 26 of their last 36 games on the road — and they have lost 24 of their last 31 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Keller who is 1-2 with a 7.24 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in six starts. The rookie has particularly struggled on the road where he has a 9.75 ERA along with a 2.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .400 in three starts. He faces a hot-hitting Phillies team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .250 batting average along with a .347 On-Base Percentage and OPS of .787 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won 22 of their last 29 games when avenging a loss by just one run. The Phillies have also won 36 of their last 52 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite to their opponent. The Pirates have lost 5 of their last 6 games in Philadelphia. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (976) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (975) listing both starting pitchers Vincent Velasquez and Mitch Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-19 |
Cardinals v. Brewers -126 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-126 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Miles Mikolas. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (67-63) has lost two straight games after suffering a 12-2 loss to the Cardinals in the opening game of this series. St. Louis (71-58) has won five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has been reliable when looking to rebound from a losing streak. The Brewers have won 22 of their last 28 games at home after a loss by at least four runs. Milwaukee was the money-line favorite last night as well with Gio Gonzalez pitching against Adam Wainwright — and they have bounced-back to win 23 of their last 30 games after suffering an upset loss to an NL Central opponent. Furthermore, the Brewers have won 20 of their last 25 home games after losing at least two in a row — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. And while Milwaukee has not scored more than four runs in their last three games, they have then won 28 of their last 30 games after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games. They give the ball to Houser who is 6-5 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 82 innings this season. The right-hander has quickly emerged as the ace of the Brewers staff as he allowed one run in four of his last five starters since being moved into the rotation. St. Louis has lost 18 of their last 28 games after a victory by at least four runs — and they have lost 22 of their last 33 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. And while the Cardinals have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then lost 21 of their last 30 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Furthermore, St. Louis has lost 21 of their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Mikolas who is 7-13 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander thrives at home where he owns a 2.80 ERA along with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 — but those numbers rise to a 6.54 ERA along with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in thirteen starts. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Mikolas on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has won 6 of their last 7 home games when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Miles Mikolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-19 |
Cardinals v. Brewers -132 |
|
12-2 |
Loss |
-132 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (958) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (957) listing both starting pitchers Gip Gonzalez and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (67-63) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 5-2 loss to Arizona. St. Louis (71-58) has won four straight games with their 11-4 win over Colorado yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee stays at home for this important NL Central series where they have still won a decisive 72 of their last 114 home games when priced as the favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. The Brewers have also won 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 22 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Gonzalez who is 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twelve starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.07 WHIP and .180 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 1.41 WHIP and .271 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Milwaukee has won 9 of their last 10 home games with Gonzales on the hill. St. Louis has lost 18 of their last 27 games after a victory by at least four runs — and they have also lost 22 of their last 32 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. And while the Cardinals bullpen has a 1.10 ERA over their last five games, they have then lost 14 of their last 16 games when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower over their last five games. Now St. Louis goes back not he road where they have lost 21 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Wainwright who is 9-9 with a 4.51 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in twenty-four starts this season. The right-hander has a 4.91 ERA since the All-Star break. Wainwright has also done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .247 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers skyrocket to a 6.64 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 in twelve starts on the road. The Cardinals have lost 7 straight road games with Wainwright facing a team with a winning record. Wainwright faces a hot-hitting Brewers lineup that is hitting .266 over their last seven games with a .356 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .807 during that span. Milwaukee has also won 6 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games in Milwaukee against the Brewers. 10* MLB St. Louis-Milwaukee ESPN Special with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (958) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (957) listing both starting pitchers Gip Gonzalez and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-19 |
Royals v. Indians UNDER 9 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Zach Plesac. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (45-83) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 8-1 loss in Baltimore against the Orioles. Cleveland (74-54) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 2-0 loss in New York to the Mets.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, Kansas City has lost 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. The Royals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an off day. And in their last 7 games on the road, Kansas City has played 5 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Junis who is 8-11 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander will be looking to complete at least 6 innings of work for the ninth straight start tonight. Junis has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.89 ERA along with a 1.33 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as opposed to his 5.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .275 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Royals have played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Junis pitching against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has also played 22 of their last 33 games with Junis pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces an Indians team that is scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .244 batting average along with a .310 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .728. Cleveland has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Indians return home to Progressive Field for the first time since August 14th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. Cleveland has also played 19 of their last 25 home games Under the Total when favored in the -125 to -175 price range. They counter with Plesac who is 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 3.25 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP in eight starts as compared to his 3.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Plesac pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -110 to -150 range. He should have success facing this Royals team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .214 batting average along with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .550 during that span. Kansas City has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since July 28th when the Royals upset the Indians at home by a 9-6 score despite being a +160 priced underdog. Cleveland has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Cleveland. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Zach Plesac. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-21-19 |
Brewers v. Cardinals -102 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-102 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (910) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (909) listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Adrian Houser. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (67-57) has won three straight games as well as nine of their last eleven contests with their 9-4 victory in the second game of this series. Milwaukee (64-62) lost three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has won 6 of their last 8 games after a win. They also have won 17 of their last 21 games against NL Central opponents. Additionally, the Cardinals have won 6 straight games at home — and they have won 20 of their last 27 home games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Wainwright who is 9-8 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The veteran right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.19 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as opposed to his 6.64 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .294 opponent’s batting average on the road. St. Louis has won a decisive 47 of their last 67 home games with Wainwright on the hill — and they have won 9 of their last 11 home games with Wainwright pitching with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. The Cardinals have also won 12 of their last 16 home games with Wainwright facing the Brewers. He faces a Milwaukee team that has lost 12 of their last 17 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Brewers have lost 15 of their last 22 games after allowing more than five runs in their last game. Milwaukee has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Houser who is 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. The right-hander has done his best pitching out of the bullpen where he owns a 1.47 ERA. But in his ten starts this year, Houser has a 0-5 record with a 5.28 ERA. Houser has also struggled on the road where he has a 4.24 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP. The Brewers have lost 4 straight games on the road with Houser on the mound — and they have also lost 7 of their last 8 road games with Houser facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cards team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has lost 5 straight games in St. Louis against the Cardinals — and they have lost 13 of their last 17 games when looking to avenge two straight losses on the road against their opponent. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (910) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (909) listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Adrian Houser. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-21-19 |
Marlins v. Braves OVER 9.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-102 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (75-62) has won three straight games with their 5-1 victory over the Marlins last night. Miami (45-79) has lost four straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs. The Over is also 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Atlanta has not allowed more than three runs in three straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. Furthermore, while the Braves have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. They give the ball to Teheran who is 7-8 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-six starts this season. The sabermetrics are screaming that Teheran is high on the list of regression candidates for the rest of the season relative to those baseline numbers. Opposing hitters are generating a Hard-Hit Rate of 38.9% which is the highest in his career. The right-hander then adds to many walks to this volatile situation — he issues a base-on-balls to 11.0% of the batters he faces while averaging 4.29 walks per 9 innings of work. Unfortunately for Teheran, he is not much of a strikeout pitcher to help him get out of jams — he only strikes out 21.3% of the batters he faces. He also does not induce ground balls as only 39.8% of the batted balls he allows into play are grounders. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.13 and 5.27 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers like this. Teheran is not quite as effective a home either where he has a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.26 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. Atlanta has played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with Teheran on the hill — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Teheran facing a team with a losing record. The Braves have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Teheran facing the Marlins. The Over is 10-3-2 in Miami’s last 15 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 10-3-2 in the Marlins’ last 15 games after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games after a loss to a divisional rival where they scored just one run. The Over is also 6-0-2 in Miami’s last 8 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Marlins have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the month of August — and the Over is 6-1-2 in Miami’s last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Smith who is 8-6 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twenty starts. The lefty has a concerning Hard-Hit rate of 41.7% that is a bit more manageable when pitching in the spacious Marlins Park for his home games. Smith has a 3.32 ERA in ten starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 3.95 ERA when he is on the road. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.08 and 4.34 moving forward. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Smith pitching on five days of rest — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 5 games with Smith facing a team with a winning record. After throwing 106 pitches in his last game (which only got him through 5 innings), the Marlins will be keeping a short lease on their young hurler as they build for the future. Expect the Miami bullpen to get plenty of action in this game with their 5.15 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season — and that group has a 12.34 ERA with a 2.49 WHIP in their last seven games. Atlanta hits left-handed pitching hard — they average 5.6 Runs-Per-Game with a .812 OPS against left-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Expect another higher-scoring game tonight. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-20-19 |
Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10 |
|
7-8 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Alex Young. THE SITUATION: Arizona (63-63) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-3 score. Colorado (57-68) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 16 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total after a victory — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a win. The Under is also 6-1-1 in Arizona’s last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. This series began after the Diamondbacks’ hosted the Giants over the weekend — and Arizona has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after winning at least two straight games against NL West rivals. The Under is also 4-0-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 6 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Young who is 4-3 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in eight starts (nine games). The left-hander has been a bit more effective at home where he owns a 1.10 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in four starts. Arizona has also played 4 straight games Under the Total with Young facing a fellow opponent from the NL West. He faces a Rockies team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Under is also 12-3-2 in Colorado’s last 17 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rockies have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 13-6-2 in Colorado’s last 21 games against NL West foes. And in their last 30 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range, the Rockies have played 20 of these games Under the Total — and this includes them playing fifteen of their last twenty-two games Under the Total as a road underdog priced in that range. They counter with Freeland who is 3-10 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in nineteen starts. While the lefty has a mediocre 4.86 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in nine starts, those numbers explode to a 9.25 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP and .337 opponent’s batting average in ten starts at home in Coors Field. The Under is 8-3-1 in Colorado’s last 12 road games with Freeland on the mound. The Rockies have also played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with Freeland pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has seen the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams — and these two teams have now played four straight games Under the Total when playing in Arizona’s Chase Field. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Alex Young. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-20-19 |
White Sox v. Twins -1.5 |
Top |
4-14 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (969) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Reynaldo Lopez. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (76-49) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last night with their 6-4 loss to the White Sox in the opening game of this series. Chicago (56-68) had lost three of their last four games before pulling the upset last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota has bounced-back to win 36 of their last 52 games after a loss — and they have won 37 of their last 53 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Twins have won 42 of their last 59 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 38 of their last 56 games against fellow AL Central opponents. Minnesota has also still won 48 of their last 71 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Pineda who is 8-5 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in twenty-two starts this season. This will be his second start since a stint on the disabled list dealing with a triceps injury in his throwing arm. Pineda struggled earlier in the season as he returned to the mound after missing last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The right-hander has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last fifteen starts. Over his last ten starts, Pineda has a 2.95 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in 58 innings of work where he struck out 56 batters. Pineda has also been more effective at home where he owns a 1.14 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .249 in eleven starts. The Twins have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Pineda on the hill. He should pitch well against this White Sox team that has lost 19 of their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago is scoring just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .639 over that span. The White Sox have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a win — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also lost 7 of their last 11 games after pulling off an upset win over a divisional rival. They counter with Lopez who is 7-10 with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 5.57 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 in twelve starts. The White Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Lopez on the mound when priced in the +125 to +175 price range. Lopez is also 0-2 in his three career starts on the road in Minnesota’s Target Field with a 5.40 ERA. He faces a hot-hitting Twins’ team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .302 batting average along with a .323 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .900 over that span. The Twins have won a decisive 42 of their last 57 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have lost 11 of their last 15 games against the Twins — and they have also lost 7 of their last 8 games in Minnesota. The Twins have been money-line favorites priced above the -150 threshold forty-one times this season. Only four times have then won the game by just one run — they have won 22 of those games by more than one run while losing outright in 15 of those games. I don’t love the losses (but I feel good with Pineda on the hill) — but I would much rather lower the price on Minnesota than risk the big money-line loss. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Minnesota Twins (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (969) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Reynaldo Lopez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-19 |
Nationals -115 v. Pirates |
|
13-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (901) with the money-line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ross and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Washington (67-56) has won six of their last seven games with their 16-8 victory over Milwaukee yesterday. Pittsburgh (51-72) has lost their last two games after their 7-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Washington has won 4 of their last 5 games after a victory — and they have won 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Nationals have won 20 of their last 28 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Washington has also won 16 of their last 21 opening games to a new series. Furthermore, the Nationals have won 25 of their last 32 games against teams with a losing record — and they have lost 12 of their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Ross who is 3-3 with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in 42 2/3 innings of work this season. The right-hander has been outstanding as of late as he owns a 3-0 record with a 0.50 ERA in his last three starts as he takes Max Scherzer’s spot in the rotation. Ross has also been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.86 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in 25 2/3 innings of work. Washington has won 10 of their last 14 games with Ross looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Pirates team that has lost 8 of their last 9 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Pittsburgh has lost 20 of their last 26 games after a loss — and they have also lost 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Pirates have also lost 4 straight games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game. This Pittsburgh team is in the tank as they have lost twenty-seven of their thirty-four games after the All-Star break. They have not scored more than four runs in four straight games — and they have lost 15 of their last 19 games after failing to score at least five runs in four straight contests. The Pirates return home after playing last night’s game in Williamsburg for the Little League Classic. Pittsburgh has lost 13 of their last 16 games at home — and they have lost 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Williams who is 5-5 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been less effective at home where he has a 6.11 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .299 in eight starts. The Pirates have lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Williams facing a team with a winning record. He faces a red-hot Nationals lineup that is scoring 9.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .323 batting average along with a .393 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.032 OPS during that span.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has won 16 of their last 23 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (901) with the money-line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ross and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-19 |
Padres v. Phillies -115 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (952) versus the San Diego Padres (951) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Joey Lucchesi. THE SITUATION: San Diego (57-65) has won two of their last three games after winning the second game of this series yesterday by a 5-3 score. Philadelphia (64-59) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has responded to win 17 of their last 24 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Phillies have still won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Vargas who is 6-6 this season with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-one starts (twenty-two games) this season. The lefty is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA in his three starts with Philly after being traded over from the New York Mets. Vargas has been more effective at home this year where he has a 2.93 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in ten starts (eleven games). His teams have won 39 of their last 57 home games when he is making the start when priced as the favorite in the -100 to -150 range. Vargas also has a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in six starts in day games — and his teams have won 11 of their last 17 games when he is making an afternoon start. He faces a Padres team that has lost 45 of their last 60 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them losing twelve of these last fourteen situations. San Diego has lost 10 of their last 12 games after a win. The Padres have also lost 13 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lucchesi who is 7-7 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The lefty has a 5.23 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP in his six starts since the All-Star break — and San Diego has lost all six games. Lucchesi does his best pitching at home in the spacious Petco Park where he enjoys a 2.91 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 6.15 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in his ten starts on the road. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road with Lucchesi on the mound — and they have also lost 5 straight games with Lucchesi facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Phillies team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .269 batting average along with a .329 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .804 during that span. Philadelphia has won 33 of their last 47 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres are playing out the string a bit demoralized with the likely season-ending injury to their rookie phenom, Fernando Tatis. San Diego has lost 14 of their last 20 games in Philadelphia. The Phillies have won 36 of their last 51 games when avenging an upset loss where they were home favorites (as they were yesterday). 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (952) versus the San Diego Padres (951) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Joey Lucchesi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-19 |
Astros v. A's +1.5 |
Top |
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oakland A’s (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Rogelio Armenteros. THE SITUATION: Oakland (70-52) has won three straight games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 3-2 score. Houston (78-45) has lost four straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Oakland pulled off the upset last night as a +170 priced underdog since they were battling Justin Verlander — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after an upset victory as a home underdog against a fellow AL West rival. The A’s have also won 10 of their last 12 third games of a series. Oakland has been dominant when playing at home in the Coliseum — they have won 71 of their last 105 games at home going back to last season. The A’s have also won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 9 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They give the ball to Bassitt who is 8-5 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in eight starts. Oakland has won 5 of their last 7 home games with Bassitt pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Bassitt also thrives in day games where he has a 2.81 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198. He faces an Astros team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston has lost 8 of their last 11 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Astros have also lost 4 straight games on the road. And while this is Houston’s ninth game on their ten-game road trip — they have lost 11 of their last 17 road games when it is at least their sixth game in a row. Given a hamstring injury that has caused Gerrit Cole to miss a start, the Astros recalled Armenteros from Round Rock in Triple-A to make this start. The 25-year old right-hander has struggled in the minors where he has a 5-6 record along with a 5.06 ERA. He has pitched 14 innings in the majors this season where he sports a 1-0 record with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP — but regression is highly likely in this start on the road. The sabermetrics for those 14 innings of work project that Armenteros will likely see the runs he allows double moving forward given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 3.80 and 4.07. Oakland has won 20 of their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s won the opening game of this series on Thursday by a 7-6 score. Houston has lost 7 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge two straight losses by just one run to their opponent. While the A’s as a money-line underdog is intriguing, with the price of them getting the valuable +1.5 Run-Line being under my -150 threshold, I prefer investing in the Run-Line for this situation. 25* MLB FS1-TV Run-Line of the Year with the Oakland A’s (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Rogelio Armenteros. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-16-19 |
Padres v. Phillies -110 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (954) versus the San Diego Padres (953) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Chris Paddack. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (63-58) comes off a three-game sweep over the Cubs after their 7-5 victory yesterday. San Diego (56-64) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 7-2 victory over Tampa Bay.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won 16 of their last 23 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Phillies have also won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Velasquez who is 4-7 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in fifteen starts (twenty-five games) this season. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 4.05 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in eight appearances which included five starts. The Phillies have won 7 of their last 10 home games with Vasquez on the hill — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with Velasquez facing a team with a winning record. San Diego has lost 9 of their last 11 games after a victory — and they have lost 12 of their last 16 games after a win by at least four runs. Furthermore, the Padres have lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. San Diego goes back on the road where they have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. This team has also lost 9 of their last 12 opening games to a new series. They counter with Paddack who is 7-5 with a 3.26 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in twenty starts. The sabermetrics for the rookie call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP of 3.96 and 4.13 moving forward. Paddack has also done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.53 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and .168 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers rise to a 3.95 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in eleven starts on the road. San Diego has lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road with Paddack on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is scoring a healthy 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. They have also won 13 of their last 18 opportunities to host the Padres. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (954) versus the San Diego Padres (953) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Chris Paddack. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-14-19 |
Cubs v. Phillies -114 |
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1-11 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (956) versus the Chicago Cubs (955) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Cole Hamels. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-58) snapped a two-game losing streak last night with their 4-2 victory over the Cubs in the opening game of this series. Chicago (64-55) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won 35 of their last 51 games at home after losing two of their last three games. The Phillies have also won 22 of their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Philly has also won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Nola who is 10-3 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in fifteen starts. The Phillies have won 29 of their last 40 home games with Nola on the mound — and they have also won 13 of their last 18 home games with Nola making the start against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Philly has won 12 of their last 13 games with Nola pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He should pitch well against this Cubs team that has lost 19 of their last 28 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 23 of their last 33 games on the road. The Cubs have also lost 5 of their last 7 games away from Wrigley Field against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Chicago has lost 21 of their last 30 games as a money-line underdog priced at least at +100. And while this is the Cubs’ sixth straight game on the road, they have lost 21 of their last 32 games when playing at least their fourth straight game away from home. They counter with Hamels who is 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-handed has been done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.35 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .219 — but those numbers rise to a 3.93 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .268 in ten starts.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has had great success at home in Citizens Bank Park where they have won 32 of their last 46 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Cubs-Phillies ESPN Special with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (956) versus the Chicago Cubs (955) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Cole Hamels. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-14-19 |
Rays +103 v. Padres |
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2-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
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At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (973) versus the San Diego Padres (974) listing both starting pitchers Jalen Beeks and Cal Quantrill. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (71-50) has won five straight games after defeating the Padres in the second game of their series last night by a 7-5 score. San Diego (55-64) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Rays have also won 10 of their last 11 games on the road. They give the ball to Beeks who is 5-1 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 80 innings of work. The left-hander usually serves as a bulk inning pitcher with an opener beginning the game but with Tampa Bay using five relievers last night, he will be asked to serve as a traditional starter in this matchup. Beeks has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.96 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in 41 1/3 innings of work as opposed to his 5.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .294 opponent’s batting average at home. He faces a Padres team that scores only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .234 batting average along with a .316 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .712. San Diego has lost 44 of their last 64 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have also lost 13 of their last 19 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. San Diego has lost 13 of their last 18 games at home in Petco Park — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Quantrill who is 5-3 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in eleven starts (sixteen games). The sabermetrics are troubling with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.55 and 4.47 moving forward. The right-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he owns a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in seven starts (nine games) as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 7 games at home with Quantrill on the hill. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and they have won 6 straight road games against teams using a right-handed starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: While San Diego has lost the first two games of this series, they have then lost 13 of their last 18 games when playing with at least double-revenge. Tampa Bay has won 9 straight games in this Interleague series. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (973) versus the San Diego Padres (974) listing both starting pitchers Jalen Beeks and Cal Quantrill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-13-19 |
Red Sox v. Indians +101 |
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7-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (916) versus the Boston Red Sox (915) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (72-47) has won six of their last seven games with their 6-5 win over the Red Sox last night. Boston (62-59) has lost three straight games as well as twelve of their last fifteen contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland has quietly been one of the best teams in baseball since the All-Star break — they have now twenty-seven of their last thirty-six games in the second half of the season. The Indians should build off the momentum from their victory last night as they have won 20 of their last 27 games after a win — and they have won 12 of their last 16 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Cleveland has won 19 of their last 26 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 7-2 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has been almost unhittable when pitching at home where he sports a 0.92 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .150 in five starts. The Indians have won 10 of their last 12 games with Clevinger pitching at home. And while Clevinger comes off an outstanding effort where he allowed just two runs in 7 innings of work at Minnesota, the Indians have won 4 straight games with Clevinger following up a Quality Start. He faces a Red Sox team that has lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have also lost 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has lost 9 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 10 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Red Sox have lost 9 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 6 straight games on the road. Additionally, Boston has lost 22 of their last 33 games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Sale who is 6-11 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The left-hander has done his best pitching at home where he enjoys a 4.22 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 — but those numbers rise to a 4.61 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. The Red Sox have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road with Sale facing a team with a winning record. He faces an Indians team that has won 14 of their last 17 home games against left-handed starting pitchers Cleveland has also won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Indians have now won 5 of their 6 encounters with the Red Sox — and they have also won 14 of their last 19 opportunities to host Boston in Progressive Field. 20* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (916) versus the Boston Red Sox (915) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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