07-16-22 |
Braves v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (957) and the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Paolo Espino. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (55-37) won their second-straight game — and 9th in their last 12 — with their 8-4 victory in the second game of this four-game series yesterday. Washington (30-62) has lost eight games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after scoring at least eight runs in their last game. Atlanta has also played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Braves have played 24 of their last 34 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. They give the ball to Fried who has a 9-3 record along with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 18 starts. In his last eight starts, the left-hander enjoys a 1.93 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Fried has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.27 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182 in six starts as compared to his 2.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and opponent’s batting average of .259. Atlanta has played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Fried pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. He faces a cold Nationals lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .237 batting average, .312 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .691 during that span. Washington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Nationals have not scored more than four runs during their eight-game losing streak — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in at least six straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home. They counter with Espino who has an 0-2 record along with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 52 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 24 2/3 innings as opposed to his 3.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in July with Espino on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta is not swinging great bats right now — they are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .238 batting average, .289 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .724. The Braves have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (957) and the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Paolo Espino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-22 |
White Sox v. Twins -128 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-128 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (928) versus the Chicago White Sox (927) listing both starting pitchers Devin Smeltzer and Michael Kopech. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (49-42) has lost five of their last seven games after their 12-2 loss at home to the White Sox last night. Chicago (44-45) has won three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: We did have the White Sox with the +1.5 Run-Line last night backing Johnny Cueto — but Chicago has then lost 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory against a divisional rival in their last game. And while the White Sox had 17 base hits yesterday, they have then lost 5 of their last 7 games after generating at least 17 base hits in their last game. Kopech gets the ball for the White Sox with his 2-6 record along with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.70 and 4.88 moving forward. The Regression Gods may already be making their presence known since Kopech has been saddled with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his last eight starts since the beginning of June. He has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in seven starts as compared to his 3.22 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .150 in nine starts at home. Kopeck also has a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his ten starts at night — and Chicago has lost 7 of their last 10 night games with Kopech on the mound. He faces a Twins team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .278 batting average, .341 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .847 during that span. Minnesota has won 20 of their last 28 games after a loss — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by eight or more runs. Additionally, the Twins have won 10 of their last 11 games after allowing at least nine runs in their last game — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. They have also won 6 of their last 7 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Minnesota has still won 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 16 of their last 23 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Smeltzer who has a 4-2 record with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 11 starts. He should have something to prove tonight after getting rocked for seven runs in 3 1/3 innings at Toronto in his last start on Saturday. In his previous three starts, Smeltzer had a 2.00 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP across 18 innings. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.10 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in five starts as opposed to his 5.76 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305. He faces a White Sox team that has lost 14 of their last 20 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won 7 straight games when playing with revenge at home from a loss by six or more runs to their opponent. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with money-line on the Minnesota Twins (928) versus the Chicago White Sox (927) listing both starting pitchers Devin Smeltzer and Michael Kopech. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-22 |
White Sox +1.5 v. Twins |
Top |
12-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Chicago (43-45) has won two straight games and four of their last five after their 2-1 victory at Cleveland yesterday. Minnesota (49-41) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 win against Milwaukee on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago their road trip with this four-game series in Minnesota having won 12 of their last 17 games after winning their two previous games on the road against divisional opponents. They have also won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. The White Sox have been a disappointment when considering that they entered the season with aspirations of making a deep run in the playoffs. Injuries have not helped their cause. But the most surprising aspect to this team has been their play at home where they are just 19-25 at Guaranteed Rate Field this season. Chicago has been a solid team on the road with a 24-20 record this season which is a pace that teams who typically win 90 or more games enjoy (which is where sports books projected future season win total). The White Sox have won 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have won 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Furthermore, Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record. They send out Cueto who has a 3-4 record with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts). The right-hander has been hot this month with a 1.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in two starts. He has been more effective on the road where he sports a 1.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts as opposed to his 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in six games (five starts). His teams have pulled off 6 straight upsets on the road when he is starting as an underdog priced up to +150. Minnesota has lost 17 of their last 22 games after winning their last contest. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing two runs or less in their last game. They turn to Gray who has a 4-2 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 12 starts this season. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.84 and 3.81 moving forward. The Regression Gods may already be making their presence known this month since Gray has been saddled with a 7.45 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in two starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to a 0.86 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average in five starts. He faces a White Six team that has won 20 of their last 29 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have been the money-line underdog 35 times — and they have covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 19 of those games with 13 upset wins and 6 one-runs losses where they covered the +1.5 Run-Line. The Twins have been the money-line favorite 51 times this season — they have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 32 of those games with 23 upset losses and another 9 one-run wins where they did not cover the -1.5 Run-Line. With the investment price of the variable +1.5 Run-Line not higher than my -150 price threshold, let’s invest and attack. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Chicago White Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-22 |
Reds v. Yankees -1.5 |
|
6-7 |
Loss |
-150 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (926) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (925) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Mike Minor. THE SITUATION: New York (61-26) has lost three games in a row after their 4-3 loss at home to the Reds last night. Cincinnati (33-54) has won five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York looked like they were cruising to a victory and a -1.5 Run-Line cover last night — but then Clay Holmes allowed four runs in the top of the ninth inning in taking his first loss of the season. Holmes’ velocity was fine last night — and the Yankees still have a 2.85 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season. The New York bullpen has converted 30 of their 42 save opportunities for a 71.4% conversion rate — and they have saved 16 of their 21 save chances at home for a 76.5% conversion rate. If we get to the Yankees’ bullpen again tonight with a multiple-run lead, we should be fine (even after losing our 25* play on New York minus the -1.5 Run-Line last night). New York has bounced back to win 20 of their last 27 games after a loss — and they have won 15 of their last 17 games after losing two of their last three games. The Bronx Bombers have still won 34 of their 44 games at home this season. The Yankees have also won 17 of their last 19 games at home when priced as a favorite at -200 or higher. They have won 13 of their last 17 games in Interleague play — and they are blasting National League pitching this season by scoring 8.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .321 batting average, .400 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .998 in their six interleague games this year. Severino gets the ball tonight with his 5-3 record with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 15 starts. In his last two starts, the right-hander has allowed only two runs in 12 innings for a 1.50 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. In his eight starts at home this year, Severino’s ERA drops to a 2.62 mark. The Yankees have won 37 of their last 51 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher including six of those eight circumstances this season. Cincinnati has won six of their last eight games — but they have then lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning five or six of their last seven. The Reds are still only scoring 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .226 batting average, .278 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .613. They have lost 38 of their last 57 games on the road. They have also lost 40 of their last 56 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Minor who has a 1-6 record with a 6.63 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in seven starts. The left-hander has been even worse on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.94 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .340 in two starts. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees team that is still scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .317 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .941 in that span.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. New York has played 55 games this season when they were priced as a money-line favorite higher than my -150 price threshold — and they have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 27 of those games with now 16 upset losses and 12 wins by just one run. The Yankees went through a stretch where I did not consider them reliable laying the -1.5 Run-Line — but in their last 11 games when priced above my -150 price threshold, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 6 times with only one victory by just one run. Cincinnati has played 41 games priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — they have lost 23 of these games by more than one run with only five losses by one run. In their last 14 games when priced as a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher, they have lost and not covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 8 of those games — and none of their losses have been by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on the Yankees by taking the -1.5 Run-Line option. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Yankees (926) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (925) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Mike Minor. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-12-22 |
Reds v. Yankees -1.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-138 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (975) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Graham Ashcroft. THE SITUATION: New York (61-25) has lost two games in a row after their 11-6 loss at Boston on Sunday night. Cincinnati (32-54) has won four games in a row with their 10-5 victory against Tampa Bay on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has bounced back to win 19 of their last 26 games after a loss — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Yankees have won 4 straight games after allowing at least eight runs in their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Furthermore, New York has won 26 of their last 34 games after an off day — including ten of those eleven circumstances this season. Now after being on the road for their last ten games, they return home to play at Yankee Stadium for the first time since June 29th. The Bronx Bombers have won 34 of their 43 games at home this season — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games at home after being on the road for at least seven days. The Yankees have also won 17 of their last 18 games at home when priced as a favorite at -200 or higher. They have won 13 of their last 16 games in Interleague play — and they are blasting National League pitching this season by scoring 9.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .328 batting average, .405 on-base percentage, and an OPS of 1.047 in their five interleague games this year. Cole gets the call on the mound tonight with the motivation to redeem himself from allowing five runs in six innings of work in his last start at Boston on Thursday. The ace right-hander has an 8-2 record with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics are bullish with month his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.98 and 2.95 moving forward. Cole comes back home to Yankee Stadium where he enjoys a 2.31 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .196 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 in his nine starts on the road. It is not common for Cole to be on the hill in games when the oddsmakers install the Total at 8.5 or higher — and his teams have won 16 of their last 20 games when he is the starter with the Total set from 8.5-10. Cincinnati has won five of their last seven games — but they have then lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven. The Reds go back on the road where they are only scoring 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .226 batting average, .278 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616. They have lost 38 of their last 56 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 16 games on the road when priced as a money-line underdog from +175 to +250. They have also lost 40 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Ashcraft who has a 4-2 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in nine starts. The rookie right-hander has been at his best at home where he sports a 2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in five starts — but in his four starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 6.98 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .291 batting average, .365 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .884 in that span.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. New York has played 54 games this season when they were priced as a money-line favorite higher than my -150 price threshold — and they have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 27 of those games with 15 upset losses and 12 wins by just one run. The Yankees went through a stretch where I did not consider them reliable laying the -1.5 Run-Line — but in their last 10 games when priced above my -150 price threshold, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 6 times with only one victory by just one run. Cincinnati has played 40 games priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — they have lost 23 of these games by more than one run with only five losses by one run. In their last 13 games when priced as a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher, they have lost and not covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 8 of those games — and none of their losses have been by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on the Yankees by taking the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Month with the New York Yankees (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (975) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Graham Ashcroft. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-22 |
Padres v. Rockies +1.5 |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (908) plus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urena and Sean Manaea. THE SITUATION: Colorado (38-48) has won three of their last four games after their 3-2 victory at Arizona yesterday. San Diego (49-38) has lost 10 of their last 14 games after their 12-0 loss to San Francisco yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado has won 18 of their last 27 games at home after winning their last game by two runs or less. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, they return home to Coors Field for the first time since July 3rd — and they have won 25 of their last 35 home games after playing their last seven games on the road. The Rockies have won 7 of their last 9 games at home while winning three straight series against the Padres, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and then the Diamondbacks. They have won 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams with a winning record. They have also won 7 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set at 11 our higher. At Coors Field, they are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .280 batting average, .343 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .799. Urena takes the hill for Colorado after he surprised everyone by holding the Dodgers to just one run and five hits in Dodger Stadium in his last start on Wednesday. He has a 0-0 record with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP this season. His teams have won 4 of their last 6 games when he is the starting pitcher with the Total set at 10 or higher. I am not going to oversell Urena in this spot — and we are taking the +1.5 Run-Line for a reason — but he will be supported by a Rockies’ bullpen that has a 3.64 ERA in their last seven games. He has a good chance for at least a solid effort against this Padres team that is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .213 batting average, .287 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .579. Arizona has lost 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 games after losing by eight or more runs to a divisional rival. Now they go back on the road where they have lost 7 of their last 9 games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Manaea who has a 3-4 record with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP this season. The lefty only induced four swinging strikes in his last start on Monday while failing to get out of the fourth inning. Something is not right with Manaea as he has been saddled with a 6.53 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in his last four starts. His teams have won just three times in their last eight games on the road when he is the starting pitcher with the Total set at 10 or higher. Colorado has confirmed that their first-base slugger C.J. Cron is back in the starting lineup tonight after being out the last two days with a wrist injury. The Rockies are scoring 5.2 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .279 batting average, .333 on-base percentage, and an OPS of 762. The Padres have lost 5 straight games to the Rockies — and they have lost 36 of their last 52 games against them at Coors Field.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not even take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are getting for this play. Colorado has covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 11 of their last 18 games when priced as a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher — including seven outright upsets. San Diego has failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 12 of their last 18 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher — including seven upset losses. Let’s invest in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that proposition under my -150 price threshold. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Colorado Rockies (908) plus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urena and Sean Manaea. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-22 |
Twins v. Rangers -105 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Dane Dunning and Dylan Bundy. THE SITUATION: Texas (39-43) has won two games in a row with their 9-7 victory against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (47-40) has lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas has won 12 of their last 16 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 4 straight games at home against teams with a winning record — and they have won 5 in a row at home with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Dunning takes the hill with a 1-6 record along with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics are bullish for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.03 and 3.92 moving forward. Dunning has been much more effective at home with a 2.83 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .209 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home as opposed to his 5.52 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in his nine starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when he had a 3.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .255 opponent’s batting average in 14 games (13 starts at home) but a 6.39 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and .299 opponent’s batting average in 13 games (12 starts) on the road. The Rangers have won 9 of their last 13 games at home with Dunning on the hill when favored at a -110 or higher price. The Twins have lost 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Twins have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 5 straight road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 16 of their last 25 games as an underdog priced up to +150. They counter with Bundy who has a 4-4 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 14 starts. But while the right-hander sports a 2.10 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in five starts at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in nine starts on the road. His teams have lost 9 of their last 10 games when he is the starting pitcher with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers should get to Bundy this afternoon as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .261 batting average, .327 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .805 during that span. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Dane Dunning and Dylan Bundy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-22 |
Nationals v. Braves -1.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (905) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Wright and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-35) has won four games in their last five games after their 12-2 victory against the Nationals in the first game of their three-game series. Washington (30-56) has lost two straight games and eight of their last nine contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has won 19 of their last 26 games after a win — and they have won 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 16 of their last 21 games at home at Truist Park. Manager Brian Snitker gives the ball to Kyle Wright who has a 9-4 record this season with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he has a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in ten starts as opposed to his 1.28 WHIP and .243 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The Braves have won all 6 of their games this season with Wright pitching at home with the Total set from 8-10.5. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 batting average, .256 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .537. Washington has lost 23 of their last 32 games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 39 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record overall. They counter with Corbin who has a 4-10 record with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The left-hander has only allowed one run in each of his last two starts — but both of those starts were at home where he has a 4.56 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276. In his seven starts on the road, Corbin has a 7.39 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .352. The Nationals have lost 29 of their last 37 games with Corbin on the hill with them listed as the money-line underdog. He faces a Braves team that crushes left-handed pitching — especially when Ronald Acuna is healthy and in the lineup. Atlanta scores 5.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-hand starting pitchers with a .264 batting average, .333 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .819 this season. The Braves have won 39 of their last 58 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 9 of their last 11 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line are laying for this game — but when Atlanta wins, they usually win by more than one run. The Braves have been priced as a money-line favorite higher than -150 in 34 games this season. They have been upset in 12 of those games — but in their 22 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run -Line 18 times. Even better, in their last 17 games when priced above my -150 threshold, while they have been upset five times, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in all 12 of those victories. Washington has played 40 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — and they have won 21 of those games outright. But in their 19 losses, they have not covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 15 of those setbacks. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 20* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (905) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Wright and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-22 |
Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (963) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Keegan Thompson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-29) has won four straight games — and eight of their last ten — after their 5-3 win against the Cubs last night Chicago (34-49) had won two games in a row before their setback yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 35 of their last 51 games after winning their last game — and they have won 51 of their last 76 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won has won 55 of their last 73 games at home at Dodgers Stadium. Anderson gets the ball for Los Angeles tonight to further his 9-1 record along with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 84 1/3 innings in 15 games which include 13 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.74 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in seven games (six starts) as compared to his 3.46 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .247 opponent’s batting average on the road. He allowed only one earned run in 6 1/3 innings at home against San Diego last Saturday. His teams have won 13 of their last 17 games when he is following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Thompson who has a 7-3 record with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 71 1/3 innings which includes ten starts in his 18 appearances. He pitches best at home where he owns a 2.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a .222 opponent’s batting average — but in his 25 innings in seven games and five starts on the road, he has a 5.40 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .280. The Cubs have lost 7 straight games against Los Angeles.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line are laying for this game — but when the Dodgers win, they usually win by more than one run. Los Angeles has been priced as a money-line favorite higher than -150 in 63 games this season. They have been upset in 21 of those games — but in their 42 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run -Line 37 times. Chicago has played 24 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — and they have won 11 of those games outright. But in their 13 losses, they have lost by more than one run in 11 of those setbacks. Let’s lower the investment price on the Dodgers by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Dodgers (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (963) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Keegan Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-22 |
Angels v. Orioles -128 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (966) versus the Los Angeles Angels (965) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Reid Detmers. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (40-44) has won five games in a row after their 4-1 win against the Orioles yesterday. Los Angeles (38-46) has lost five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Don’t look now — but Baltimore is playing pretty good baseball. Since the beginning of June, they have a 19-14 record. They are holding their own against their tough AL East divisional rivals against which they have a 15-19 record this season — and they are now 25-25 against the rest of the league as they continue to improve under manager Brandon Hyde. The Orioles have won 7 of their last 9 games after a win. They have won 5 straight games at home — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. They turn to Wells who has a 7-4 record with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 16 starts this season. Wells has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.20 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in six starts as opposed to his 3.64 ERA and .226 opponent’s batting average in ten starts on the road. The right-hander has only allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts — and Baltimore has won 5 of their last 6 games with Wells pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight starts. He faces a slumping Angels lineup that has scored only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .146 batting average, .216 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .448. Los Angeles has lost 21 of their last 28 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Angels have lost 23 of their last 32 games after a loss — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Los Angeles is a train wreck that has gone 11-23 since the beginning of June. They have already struck out 75 times in their six games this month after striking out eight times last night. They are rudderless without manager Joe Maddon — and now interim manager Phil Nevin is out after getting suspended in their bench-clearing brawl. The inmates are running the asylum. The Angels have lost 17 of their last 22 games on the road — and they have lost 12 of their last 13 games against AL East teams. They counter with Detmers who has a 2-3 record with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 12 starts. The left-hander has pitched well at home with a 3.86 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and .156 opponent’s batting average in seven starts — but he has a 6.86 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and .282 opponent’s batting average in his five starts on the road this season.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has won 5 of their last 7 games at home against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (966) versus the Los Angeles Angels (965) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Reid Detmers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-22 |
Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (915) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Mark Leiter, Jr. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-29) has won three straight games — and seven of their last nine — after their 2-1 win against Colorado yesterday. Chicago (34-48) has won two in a row and six of their last eight after their 2-1 victory at Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 5 straight games after a victory by one run — and they have also won 42 of their last 53 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won 23 of their last 26 home games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Los Angeles has won 54 of their last 72 games at home at Dodgers Stadium. Gonsolin gets the ball with his 10-0 record along with a 1.54 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been nearly unhittable at home where he owns a 0.88 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .124 in seven starts as compared to his 2.21 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .186 on the road. The Dodgers have won 16 of their last 18 home games priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher with Gonsolin on the hill. Chicago has lost 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than one run in their last game. And while the Cubs’ bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game, they have then lost 20 of their last 29 games when their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Chicago has lost 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Leiter, Jr. who has a 2-2 record along with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings. The right-hander has struggled on the road with a 7.94 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .283 in 11 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old last pitched in MLB in 2018 before Tommy John surgery kept him out of the 2019 and 2020 seasons. He pitched in the minor leagues for Detroit last season. These two teams last played on May 8th when the Dodgers won in Wrigley Field by a 7-1 score. The Cubs have lost 16 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss at home by six or more runs. Chicago has lost 6 straight games against Los Angeles.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line are laying for this game — but when the Dodgers win, they usually win by more than one run. Los Angeles has been priced as a money-line favorite higher than -150 in 62 games this season. They have been upset in 21 of those games — but in their 41 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run -Line 36 times. Chicago has played 23 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — and they have won 11 of those games outright. But in their 12 losses, they have lost by more than one run in 10 of those setbacks. Let’s lower the investment price on the Dodgers by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Dodgers (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (15) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Mark Leiter, Jr. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-22 |
Angels v. Orioles -101 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (920) versus the Los Angeles Angels (919) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Chase Silseth. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (39-44) has won four games in a row after their 2-1 win against Texas yesterday. Los Angeles (38-45) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 5-2 win at Miami on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Don’t look now — but Baltimore is playing pretty good baseball. Since the beginning of June, they have an 18-14 record. They are holding their own against their tough AL East divisional rivals against which they have a 15-19 record this season — and they are 24-25 against the rest of the league as they continue to improve under manager Brandon Hyde. The Orioles have won 6 of their last 8 games after a win. They have won 4 straight games at home — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. They turn to Lyles who has a 4-7 record with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 16 starts this season. The right-hander has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts — and he sports a 3.20 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in those starts. The sabermetrics do indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.36 and 4.28 moving forward. Lyles is most effective at home at Camden Yards where he owns a 2.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in six starts as compared to his 5.89 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .279 opponent’s batting average on the road. He faces a slumping Angels lineup that has scored only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .157 batting average, .221 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .502. Los Angeles has lost 20 of their last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They did win for the first time this month — but they have failed then lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning their previous game. They have lost 8 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And while they have not allowed more than two runs in their last two games, they have then lost 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. Los Angeles is a train wreck that has gone 11-22 since the beginning of June. They have already struck out 67 times in their five games this month. They are rudderless without manager Joe Maddon — and now interim manager Phil Nevin is out after getting suspended in their bench-clearing brawl. The inmates are running the asylum. The Angels have lost 16 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have lost 11 of their last 12 games against AL East teams. They counter with Silseth who has a 1-2 record along with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in four starts. Los Angeles has lost in 4 straight of his starts this season.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has won 6 of their last 7 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (920) versus the Los Angeles Angels (919) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Chase Silseth. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-22 |
Royals v. Astros -1.5 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-133 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (973) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Brad Keller. THE SITUATION: Houston (53-27) won for the eighth straight time last hight with their 9-7 victory against the Royals in the second game of this series. Kansas City (29-50) has lost seven of their last ten games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston has won 17 of their last 21 games after winning their last game by more than one run — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the Astros won Game One of this series by a 7-6 score, they have then won 12 of their last 14 home games after winning their last two by no more than two runs. They have now won 43 of their last 62 games at home — and they have won 25 of their last 34 home games when prices as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. Houston has also won 28 of their last 38 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Javier who has a 6-3 record this season with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 15 games which includes 11 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.83 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .148 in 39 1/3 innings — but he has a 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .207 opponent’s batting average in 30 1/3 innings on the road. The Astros have won 12 of their last 16 games at home with Javier on the hill. He faces a Royals team that scores only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .239 batting average, .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .669. Kansas City has lost 36 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have lost 23 of their last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after playing a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Kansas City has played three straight Overs — and they have lost 22 of their last 31 games after playing at least three straight Overs in a row. They have also lost 17 of their last 26 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Keller who has a 3-9 record with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.59 and 4.28 respectively moving forward. The Regression Gods may have already arrived for the right-hander as he has a 2-7 record in his last ten starts with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. And while Keller did not allow a run in six innings in his last start at Detroit on Friday, the Royals have lost 10 of their last 12 games with Keller on the mound following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. Keller faces an Astros team that has won 35 of their last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 35 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Kansas City has lost 6 of their last 7 games against the Astros — and they have lost 4 in a row against them in Houston.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. The Astros have been priced as a money-line favorite higher than -150 in 33 of their games. They have been upset in 10 of these contests — and in their 23 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 15 times. Houston has been a more reliable favorite in these circumstances lately — in their last 11 games priced above -150, they have lost only twice while covering the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their 9 wins. The Royals have been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher 29 times. They have pulled nine upsets — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 16 of their 20 losses under those circumstances. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Houston Astros (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (973) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Brad Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-22 |
Angels v. Marlins -130 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (928) versus the Los Angeles Angels (927) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Miami (38-40) has won five straight games after their 3-2 win at Washington yesterday. Los Angeles (37-44) is on a three-game losing streak after their 4-2 loss at Houston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami is playing some sneaky good baseball as of late. It starts at home where they have won 7 of their last 9 games. They have also won 11 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 7 straight games at home against teams with a losing record. Alcantara takes the mound with his 8-3 record along with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander has pitched at least seven innings in ten straight starts with three complete games during that span which is an unheard of accomplishment in modern MLB. He has been spectacular at home where he owns a 1.80 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in eight starts. Alcantara last pitched on Wednesday last week — and the Marlins have won 6 of their last 7 games this season with Alcantara pitching with five or six days of rest. He faces a cold Angels lineup that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .173 batting average, .253 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .580. Los Angeles has lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Angels have lost 27 of their last 37 games — and they have lost 22 of their last 30 games after losing their last game. Los Angeles has also lost 12 of their last 16 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have lost 12 of their last 14 games after an off day. Furthermore, the Angels have lost 15 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games in Interleague play. They counter with Syndergaard who has a 5-6 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Thor has pitched his best at home where he owns a 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a .213 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 6.53 ERA. 1.60 WHIP, and .306 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.29 and 4.21 moving forward. His teams have lost 10 of their last 12 road games with him the starting pitcher priced as an underdog at +125 to +175.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has won 5 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (928) versus the Los Angeles Angels (927) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-22 |
Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-29) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 4-2 loss at home to San Diego yesterday. Colorado (35-44) has won two straight games after their 6-5 victory against Arizona on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has bounced back to win 35 of their last 51 games after a loss. They have also won 41 of their last 52 games after after not scoring more than two runs in their last game including 11 of those 15 circumstances this season. The Dodgers have also won 26 of their last 29 games at home after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. Los Angeles has won 51 of their last 69 games at home. They give the ball to Urias who has a 6-6 record with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 15 starts. The left-hander comes off a month where he had a 2.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and .167 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Urias does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 in six starts as compared to his 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .220 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. The Dodgers have won 14 of their last 20 home games with Urias pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He should pitch well against this Rockies team that has lost 7 of their last 10 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 15 of their last 20 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .236 batting average, .293 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .631. They counter with Freeland who has a 4-5 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP this season. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.72 and 4.73 respectively. The Rockies have lost 11 of their last 14 road games with Freeland pitching as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. He faces a Dodgers club that has won 37 of their last 52 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends identified above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line — but when the Dodgers win, they usually win by more than one run. Los Angeles has been priced as a money-line favorite higher than -150 in 59 games this season. They have been upset in 21 of those games — but in their 38 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run -Line 34 times. Colorado has played 28 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — and they have won 10 of those games outright. But in their 18 losses, they have lost by more than one run in 15 of those setbacks. Let’s lower the investment price on the Dodgers by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-22 |
Cardinals v. Phillies -128 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (41-38) looks to rebound from their 7-6 loss at home to the Cardinals yesterday. St. Louis (44-36) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won 12 of their last 15 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have won 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record. Wheeler sports a 6-4 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He thrives at home where he owns a 1.85 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in eight starts as compared to his 4.45 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .280 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. He faces a Cardinals team that has lost 19 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last game. They have still lost 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They counter with Wainwright who has a 6-5 record along with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics due call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.01 and 3.73 moving forward. The right-hander does his best work at home where he owns a 2.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in seven starts — but in his eight starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.83 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .272. He faces a Phillies team that has won 14 of their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has lost 9 of their last 13 games against the Phillies — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games against them in Philadelphia. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-22 |
Diamondbacks v. Rockies +1.5 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: Colorado (34-44) has won three of their last five games after their 11-7 victory in the second game of this series. Arizona (35-43) has lost two of their last three games and seven of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado is a solid team when playing at home at Coors Field where they have a 22-21 record this season. They are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .281 Batting Average, .343 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .799 — and now they have Kris Bryant back in the lineup since being out since April 25th with an injury. The Rockies have won 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set at 11 or higher. Colorado has also won 37 of their last 53 home games against teams with a losing record. Kuhl gets the ball with his 5-5 record along with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander comes off a complete game shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday — and his teams have won 9 of their last 14 games when he is looking to follow up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. Kuhl does his best pitching at home where he sports a 2.48 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in six starts as compared to his 4.39 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and .264 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. He should have success against this Diamondbacks team that has lost 13 of their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Arizona has scored nine and seven runs in their last two games — but they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. They have also lost 8 of their last 10 games against the Rockies at Coors Field. They counter with Gallen who has a 4-2 record along with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding when pitching at home where he owns a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197 — but those numbers rise to a 1.24 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.74 and 3.90 moving forward.
FINAL TAKE: I think the Rockies pull the upset this afternoon — but with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line being priced in the -150 price range, I prefer investing for that insurance. Colorado would have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 14 losses if getting +1.5 Runs. Arizona has failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their last 25 victories. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Colorado Rockies (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-22 |
Royals v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 12:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (913) and the Detroit Tigers (914) listing both starting pitchers Brady Singer and Tarik Skubal. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (28-48) has lost five of their last seven games after their 4-3 loss on the road against the Tigers yesterday. Detroit (30-46) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have not scored more than three runs in three straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in their last three contests. Kansas City has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after allowing four runs or less in three straight games. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Royals have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Singer who has a 3-3 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 54 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.55 and 3.58 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in 18 2/3 innings as compared to his 4.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264. Kansas City has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when Singer is their starting pitcher in day games. The Tigers have seen the Under go 26-10-2 in their last 38 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a win by one run. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 46-22-4 in their last 72 games at home with the Total set at 7-8.5. The Under is also 19-8-2 in the Tigers’ last 29 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. They counter with Skubal who has a 5-6 record along with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts. The sabermetrics are supportive with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.33 and 3.19 moving forward. The left-hander has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .235 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home as compared to his 4.50 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .252 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Skubal pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Royals team that has played 36 of their last 53 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 games between these teams when played in Detroit. 10* MLB Kansas City-Detroit Peacock O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (913) and the Detroit Tigers (914) listing both starting pitchers Brady Singer and Tarik Skubal. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-22 |
Rangers v. Mets -125 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (980) versus the Texas Rangers (979) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Martin Perez. THE SITUATION: New York (48-29) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 4-3 victory over the Rangers in Game One of this series. Texas (36-39) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 16 of their last 20 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then won 21 of their last 26 home games after not scoring more than four runs in three straight contests. The Mets have won 14 of their last 18 games at home. They have also won 22 of their last 29 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Williams gets the start today with a 1-4 record this season along with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 42 innings. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 opponent’s batting average in 20 innings as opposed to his 4.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .271 opponent’s batting average in 24 innings on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season for Williams with the Pirates and then the Mets (after a midseason trade) when he had a 2.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and .242 opponent’s batting average in 51 innings at home but a 6.75 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .337 opponent’s batting average in 40 innings on the road. His teams have won 10 straight home games with Williams on the mound. He faces a Rangers team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .226 batting average, .279 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .656. Texas has lost 35 of their last 46 games on the road after losing two games in a row. They have also lost 28 of their last 40 road games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. Furthermore, the Rangers have lost 16 of their last 21 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 road games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Perez who has a 6-2 record along with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.83 and 3.66 moving forward. The regression may be already happening since he has allowed at least four runs in two of his last four starts — he has a 4.13 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in those four outings.
FINAL TAKE: New York has won 12 of their last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (980) versus the Texas Rangers (979) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Martin Perez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-01-22 |
White Sox v. Giants -142 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-142 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (930) versus the Chicago White Sox (929) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (40-34) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-2 loss to Detroit on Wednesday. Chicago (35-39) has lost six of their last eight games after a 4-1 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 8 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have won 6 straight games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They have also won 43 of their last 61 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 33 games after an off day, they have won 24 of these contests. They give the ball to Cobb who has a disappointing 3-3 record along with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP this season. The sabermetrics indicate the right-hander has been very unfortunate with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.95 and 2.70 moving forward. San Francisco has won 41 of their last 59 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 50 of their last 73 games at home against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Giants have won 9 of their last 12 games in Interleague play. Chicago has lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 6 of their last 7 games after an off day. They stay on the road where they have lost 27 of their last 39 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 road games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lynn making just his fourth start of the season after being on the 60-day injured list after getting right knee surgery. The right-hander has yet to find his mojo as he has a 6.19 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while giving up at least three earned runs in each of his starts. Lynn was 11-6 with the White Sox last year with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP —but he has always been a likely candidate to get a visit from the Regression Gods with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.72 and 3.82 from his peripheral numbers last year.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has lost 7 of their last 9 road games with Lynn pitching as a money-line underdog. 10* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (930) versus the Chicago White Sox (929) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-01-22 |
Diamondbacks v. Rockies -112 |
|
9-3 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (910) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: Colorado (33-43) had their two-game winning streak end with an 8-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday. Arizona (34-42) has lost six of their last eight games after their 4-0 loss to San Diego on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado is a solid team when playing at home at Coors Field where they have a 21-20 record this season. They are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .282 Batting Average, .344 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .800 — and now they have Kris Bryant back in the lineup since being out since April 25th with an injury. The Rockies have won 25 of their last 36 games at home when favored up to a -150 price — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set at 11 or higher. Senzatela gets the ball with his 3-4 record along with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in 12 starts. The groundball pitcher does usually pitch better at home where he has a 3.52 ERA in eight starts this season as compared to his 6.86 ERA in four starts on the road. Last year, Senzatela had a 3.97 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts at home as opposed to his 5.05 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 13 starts on the road. Colorado has won 9 of their last 11 home games with Senzatela pitching priced in the +/- 125 money-line range. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has lost 37 of their last 47 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after getting shut out in their last game to an NL West rival. They counter with Kelly who has a 6-5 record along with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he has a 3.40 ERA in nine starts — but his ERA rises to 4.06 in his six starts on the road. This is consistent with last season where Kelly had a 3.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244 at home but a 5.18 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .291 opponent’s batting average on the road. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging either with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.29 and 4.06 moving forward. Arizona has lost 16 of their last 24 games with Kelly pitching against an NL West rival — including four of his five starts this season. The Diamondbacks have lost 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 11 or higher. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won 18 of their last 27 games at home with Senzatela pitching against a divisional rival. Arizona is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .204 Batting Average, .280 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .648 — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (910) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-22 |
Twins +1.5 v. Guardians |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-35) has lost two of their last three games after their 7-6 loss to the Guardians yesterday in 10 innings yesterday. Cleveland (38-34) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota scored three runs in the top of the 10th inning yesterday — but their bullpen blew the save by allowing four runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to take the loss. The Twins have won 16 of their last 21 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 11 games after blowing a save in their last game. Minnesota has still won 6 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Archer who has a 2-3 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in seven starts as compared to his 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in seven starts at home. He has been outstanding this month with a 2-1 record along with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in five starts. While Archer does not pitch deep into games and usually does not pitch around the batting order more than twice, he will be supported by a Twins bullpen that has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in the last seven days. His teams have won 6 of their last 9 games with him pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games when he is the starting pitcher for a day game. He faces a Cleveland team that ranks 18th in MLB in the weighted Runs Created metric when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers and 20th in weighted On-Base Percentage when at home against right-handed pitching. In their last seven games, the Guardians are scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .227 Batting Average, .272 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .586. Cleveland has lost 5 of their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Guardians had lost five straight games before winning two of their last three games in the middle three games of this five-game series. But Cleveland has still lost 5 of their last 7 games at home. They counter with Bieber who has a 3-4 record along with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been most effective on the road where he has a 2.51 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in nine starts — but in his five starts at home, he has a 4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Bieber had a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .211 opponent’s batting average in nine starts but a 3.51 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Twins lineup that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .812 during that span. Minnesota has still beaten the Guardians in 6 of their last 8 meetings.
FINAL TAKE: All of the Twins last five losses have been only one run — and four straight Cleveland victories as well as five of their last six games have been by just one run. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month is with the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-22 |
Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-118 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Andre Pallante. THE SITUATION: Miami (33-40) has lost two in a row and four of their last five after their 5-3 loss on the road against the Cardinals. St. Louis (43-34) has won two in a row and three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have allowed five or more runs in four of their last five games. They have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range overall. They give the ball to Alcantara who has a 7-3 record along with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.55 and 3.45 moving forward. Alcantara does his best pitching at home where he has a 1.80 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in eight starts — but on the road, those numbers do rise to a 2.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in seven starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Alcantara had a 2.41 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 16 starts at home but a 4.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .247 in 17 starts on the road. He faces a Cardinals team that has seen the Over go 20-9-1 in their last 30 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 5-1-1 in St. Louis’ last 7 games after a win — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Pallante who has a 2-3 record with a 2.03 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 48 2/3 innings this season. The sabermetrics are screaming “regression” for the 23-year-old rookie with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.11 and 4.03 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective on the road where he has a 1.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 20 2/3 innings — but in his 28 innings at home, while his 2.57 ERA seems fine, the concern is with his 1.46 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 5-1-1 in the Marlins’ last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Andre Pallante. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-22 |
Tigers v. Giants -1.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (982) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (981) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Tarik Skubal. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (39-33) has lost four of their last five games after their 10-3 loss to Colorado on Sunday. Detroit (28-44) has lost four of its last six games after an 11-7 loss at Arizona on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco has won 7 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have won 42 of their last 60 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 32 games after an off day, they have won 23 of these contests. Furthermore, the Giants have won 27 of their last 38 games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Rodon who has a 6-4 record along with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been his most effective at home where he has a 2.18 ERA and .193 opponent’s batting average in six starts as opposed to his 3.06 ERA and .209 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. His teams have won 23 of their last 35 games when he is the starting pitcher and favored by at least a -110 money-line price. He faces a Tigers team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Detroit has lost 7 of its last 9 games after a loss. And after their bullpen gave up six runs on Sunday to blow a 3-2 lead in the top of the fourth inning, the Tigers have lost 5 straight games after their bullpen blew a save in their last game. Detroit is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .213 batting average, .261 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .577. They have lost 22 of their last 31 games on the road. They counter with Skubal who has a 5-5 record with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 14 starts. But while the lefty has a 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .235 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home, he has a 4.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in six starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Skubal had a 3.56 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .243 opponent’s batting average in 18 games (16 starts) at home but a 5.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .248 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. The Tigers have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Skubal pitching as a money-line underdog. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 4 straight home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this game. San Francisco has played 24 games this season when priced above my -150 threshold. While they have been upset in 11 of these games — in their 13 victories in those circumstances, 12 of those wins were by more than one run. Detroit has been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher 30 times this season — and while they have pulled the upset 9 times, in their 21 losses, 15 of those setbacks have been by more than one run. If the Giants win, they should win by more than one run. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the San Francisco Giants (982) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (981) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Tarik Skubal. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-22 |
Marlins v. Cardinals -137 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (956) versus the Miami Marlins (955) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Braxton Garrett. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (42-34) has won two of their last three games with their 9-0 victory against the Marlins in the first game of this three-game series. Miami (33-39) has lost three of its last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has won 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. The Cardinals have also won 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 20 games when priced up to -150 as a money-line favorite, St. Louis has won 16 of these games. Hudson gets the start with his 5-4 record that goes along with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in six starts as opposed to his 4.57 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .252 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Cardinals have won 15 of their last 18 games when he is the starting pitcher and favored up to -150. He faces a Marlins team that has lost 37 of their last 52 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Miami has lost 17 of their last 20 road games after losing two of their last three games. They have also lost 17 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Marlins have lost 4 of these games. They counter with Braxton who has a 1-2 record along with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in four starts this season. The left-hander has pitched 24 2/3 innings in his short MLB career on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.47 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .397 as compared to his more modest 4.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .276 opponent’s batting average in 34 2/3 career innings at home. Miami has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Garrett pitching as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has won 20 of their last 27 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 12 of their last 15 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (956) versus the Miami Marlins (955) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Braxton Garrett. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-22 |
Dodgers v. Braves +111 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (954) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (953) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (42-31) has won five of their last seven games — and 20 of their last 26 — after their 5-3 victory against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (44-26) had been on a four-game winning streak before the setback.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This red-hot Atlanta team has won 15 of their last 18 games after a victory — and they have won 12 of their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 11 of their last 13 games at home. They give the ball to Strider who will have something to prove after giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings of work in his last start against San Francisco on Tuesday. Not only was that the worst start of the season for the rookie, but those six runs matched the six runs he had allowed in his previous eight appearances for the Braves spanning over 30 innings. The fireballer has a 3-2 record this season with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 47 2/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 2.72 moving forward. Atlanta has won 3 of his 4 starts this season. Los Angeles has lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Gonsolin who has a 9-0 record with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in 13 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.75 and 3.74 moving forward. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he has a 0.81 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and .118 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in his seven starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Gonsolin had a 2.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in seven starts at home but a 3.86 ERA and 144 WHIP in eight games and six starts on the road. The Dodgers have lost 7 of their last 8 road games with Gonsolin on the mound and favored up to a -150 price. Los Angeles has also lost 6 of their last 7 games in Atlanta against the Braves.
FINAL TAKE: Ronald Acuna is getting the day off after leaving yesterday’s game when fouled a ball off his foot — but he should be available for pinch-hitting duty if necessary. The Dodgers are still without Mookie Betts who is on the Injured List with a rib injury. Atlanta has won 11 of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (954) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (953) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-22 |
Cubs v. Cardinals -1.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (902) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (901) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Adrian Sampson. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (40-33) has lost two straight games and four of their last six after their 3-0 shutout loss to the Cubs last night. Chicago (27-44) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: St. Louis has won 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games after losing four of their last five games. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. The Cardinals have still won 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have also won 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. The give the ball to Mikolas who has a 5-5 record with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 0.87 WHIP and a .192 opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to his 1.08 WHIP and .225 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cardinals have won 4 of their 5 starts at home this season with Mikolas pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110. St. Louis has also won 23 of their last 31 games during the day with Mikolas on the mound. He faces a Cubs team that has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. Additionally, the Cubs have lost 9 of their last 12 games after shutting out a divisional rival — and they have lost 17 of their last 25 games after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Chicago has still lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They counter with Adrian Sampson who has not allowed an earned run in the 5 2/3 innings he has pitched in the majors this season. The right-hander got called up from Triple-A to pitch this afternoon after posting a 1-2 record with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP last year. The deeper sabermetics projected an ERA of 4.29 and 4.67 given his peripheral numbers. And while he had a 2.08 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and .197 opponent’s batting average in 17 1/3 innings at home, those numbers rose to a 3.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a .261 opponent’s batting average in 18 innings on the road. The Cubs have lost 7 of their last 9 road games with Sampson on the hill priced as a +150 to +200 money-line underdog. St. Louis has won 7 of their last 10 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has still lost 10 of their last 14 games against the Cardinals.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has won 6 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a loss where they did not score more than one run. These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game — but the the +1.5/-1.5 Run-Line ATS records support this play. The Cardinals have been priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 threshold 20 times. St. Louis has been upset eight times — but in their 12 victories, 9 of them have been by more than one run. The Cubs have been priced as a +145 or higher underdog 20 times. They have pulled off upsets 9 times — but in their 11 losses, 9 of them have been by more than one run. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the St. Louis Cardinals (902) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (901) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Adrian Sampson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-22 |
Reds v. Giants -1.5 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (959) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Graham Ashcraft. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (38-31) has lost two in a row and four of their last five games with their 7-6 loss at Atlanta yesterday. Cincinnati (23-46) lost for the seventh-straight time with a 10-5 loss at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco has bounced-back to win 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 30 of their last 47 games after losing two games in a row. Now after a seven-game road trip, they return home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games. The Giants have also won 37 of their last 54 games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. They give the ball to Cobb who has a 3-2 record along with a disappointing 5.62 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. The sabermetrics suggest he is not getting the results he deserves with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.92 and 2.64 moving forward. He should pitch better tonight against a Reds team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .213 Batting Average, .267 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .587 this season. Cincinnati has lost 34 of their last 45 games after a loss this season. Additionally, they have lost 6 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 14 of their last 17 games after giving up at least five runs in their last game. On the road, the Reds have lost 35 of their last 51 games. They have also lost 41 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Ashcraft who has a 3-1 record with a 3.51 ERA and a 1 .17 WHIP in six starts. The sabermetrics suggest he has been fairly fortunate to put up those numbers as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.14 and 3.91 moving forward. In two starts on the road, he has only last nine innings while getting saddled with a 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds have been a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher 29 times this season. They have pulled off the upset 8 times — and in their 21 losses, only 5 have been only one won which means they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 16 times. San Francisco has been priced as a money-line favorite above the -150 threshold 20 times this season. While they have been upset in 10 of those games, in their 10 victories, 9 of them have been by more than one run. If the Giants win, then it should be by more than one run. 10* MLB Friday Late Show Run-Line Bailout San Francisco Giants (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (959) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Graham Ashcraft. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-22 |
Orioles v. White Sox OVER 8.5 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Johnny Cueto. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (31-39) has won four of their last six games after their 7-0 victory against the Nationals yesterday. Chicago (33-34) looks to bounce back from a 9-5 loss to Toronto yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 6 straight Overs — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games as an underdog. The Over is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They give the ball to Kremer who has a 1-1 record along with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in three starts this season. The sabermetrics indicate he has likely been overachieving given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 4.65 and 4.53 moving forward. Kremer was 0-7 last year with a 7.55 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in 13 starts. He faces a White Sox team this is scoring 6.6 Runs Per-Game in their last seven games with a .308 Batting Average, .372 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .852. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Over is 5-0-1 in the White Sox’s last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has played 7 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight Overs with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They counter with Cueto who has a 1-3 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 42 2/3 innings. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.13 and 4.09 moving forward. And in his 17 2/3 innings at home for the White Sox, he has a 5.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 as compared to his 1.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 5 straight Overs on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or higher. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Johnny Cueto. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-22 |
Tigers v. Red Sox -132 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (966) versus the Detroit Tigers (965) listing both starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Tarik Skubal. THE SITUATION: Boston (38-31) is starting to heat up with seven wins in their last nine games after their 5-4 victory against the Tigers in the second game of their series. Detroit (26-42) has lost eight of their last ten games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 10 of their last 14 games after winning their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 11 of their last 13 games when favored. They give the ball to Wacha who has a 5-1 record along with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 11 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he has a 1.03 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in five starts. His teams have won 6 of their last 8 games with him on the mound and are favored up to a -150 price. He faces a Tigers team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Detroit has lost 6 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Tigers have also lost 20 of their last 27 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. They counter with Skull who has a 5-4 record along with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 13 starts. The lefty has done his best pitching at home where he has a 3.13 ERA and .235 opponent’s batting average in eight starts — but in five road starts, his ERA and opponent’s batting average inch up to 3.14 and .248 marks. That is certainly not a dramatic jump — but while he had a 3.56 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .243 batting average in 16 starts (18 games) at home last year, those numbers rose to a 5.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .248 opponent’s batting average in 13 road starts which fills out the sample size a bit. Detroit has lost 7 of their last 10 road games with Skull starting as an underdog priced from +100 to +150. The Tigers have lost 6 of their last 7 games at Fenway Park against the Red Sox.
FINAL TAKE: Boston leads MLB in weighted Runs Scored and with a weighted On-Base Percentage of .382 when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers. They have won 8 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (966) versus the Detroit Tigers (965) listing both starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Tarik Skubal. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-22 |
Mets v. Astros -125 |
|
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Houston (41-25) has won four of their last five games with their 4-3 win against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. New York (45-24) has won four of their last five games after a 6-0 win against Miami yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 11 of their last 14 games after a win by two runs or less. They have also won 40 of their last 58 opening games to a new series. And in their last 24 games at home when favored, they have won 17 times. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Jose Urquidy who has a 5-3 record along with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.78 ERA in four starts as compared to his 6.28 ERA in eight starts on the road. Last season, Urquidy had a 3.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in ten home starts as opposed to his 3.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and .229 opponent’s batting average in ten starts on the road. The Astros have won 11 of their last 16 games at home with Urquidy their starting pitcher and priced as a -110 or higher favorite. He faces a Mets team that is hitting only .229 in their last seven games with a .300 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .649. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Additionally, New York has lost 7 of their last 9 Interleague games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 35 of their last 51 games as an underdog. They counter with Williams who has a 1-3 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 35 2/3 innings this season. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 — but those numbers rise to a 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in 20 innings. In his 40 innings on the road last year between his time with Pittsburgh and then the Mets after getting dealt to New York, Williams had a 6.75 ERA with a 1.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .337.
FINAL TAKE: Williams teams have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road with him their starting pitcher and listed as a money-line underdog. Houston is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-22 |
White Sox v. Astros -142 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (920) versus the Chicago White Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Michael Kopech. THE SITUATION: Houston (40-25) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 7-0 loss to the White Sox yesterday. Chicago (31-32) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has rebounded to win 16 of their last 24 games after a loss — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by four or more runs. They have also won 8 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. The Astros have won 16 of their last 22 games at home — and they have won 30 of their last 42 games when favored. Manager Dusty Baker turns to Javier tonight who has a 3-3 record to go along with his 3.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 50 2/3 innings which includes eight starts and four bullpen appearances. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.98 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in 27 1/3 innings of work. Chicago has lost 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game by four or more runs. They have lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 42 of their last 57 road games as an underdog. They counter with Kopech who has a 2-2 record with a 1.92 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 11 starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.36 and 4.50 moving forward. And while he has an ERA of 1.57 with a 0.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of 0.86 in six starts, those numbers rise to a 2.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in five starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has won 22 of their last 30 games against right-handed staring pitchers. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (920) versus the Chicago White Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Michael Kopech. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-22 |
Marlins v. Mets -129 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-129 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 1:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (908) versus the Miami Marlins (907) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Sandy Alcantara. THE SITUATION: New York (43-23) has won three straight games and five of their last six after their 3-2 victory against the Marlins yesterday. Miami (28-34) has lost three in a row and five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 21 of their last 29 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total at 7-8.5. The Mets have also won 40 of their last 58 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bassitt who is 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.58 and 3.70 moving forward. He has struggled on the road where he has a 5.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 — but in his seven starts at home, he has a 3.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216. His teams have won 18 of their last 22 games when he is the starting pitcher and priced in the -125 to -175 price range. He faces a slumping Marlins team that is hitting only .198 in their last seven games with a .240 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .573. The Marlins have lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 40 of their last 53 games on the road as a money-line underdog. They counter with Alcantara who has a 6-2 record along with a 1.68 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been nearly unhittable at home where he has a 1.36 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .187 — but on the road those numbers rise to a 2.11 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in six starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.65 and 3.57. The Marlins have lost 14 of their last 18 games with Alcantara their starting pitcher with the Total set at 7 or less. He faces a Mets team that has won 28 of their last 40 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: New York has won 36 of their last 51 games when favored — including 24 of their 33 games when favored this season. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (908) versus the Miami Marlins (907) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Sandy Alcantara. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-22 |
White Sox v. Astros -1.5 |
|
7-0 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (973) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Johnny Cueto. THE SITUATION: Houston (40-24) has won three straight games and four of their last five after their 13-3 victory in the opening game of this series last night. Chicago (30-32) had been on a three-game winning streak before the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston beat Texas by a 9-2 score in their previous game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games by at least four runs. They have also won 19 of their last 24 games after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. The Astros have won 16 of their last 22 games at home. They have also won 30 of their last 42 games when favored. They give the ball to Verlander who has an 8-2 record with a 1.94 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP this season. In five starts at home, the right-hander has a 1.65 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .197. Houston has won 5 straight games at home when Verlander is pitching in a day game — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home when Verlander is pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a White Sox team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Chicago has lost 8 of their last 10 games after losing by at least eight runs in their last game. They have also lost 42 of their last 57 road games as an underdog. Additionally, the White Sox have lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Cueto who has an 0-3 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in six games (five starts). The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.07 and 4.04 moving forward. He faces a hot-hitting Astros team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .273 Batting Average, .341 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .837 during that span. Houston has won 22 of their last 30 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this situation. Houston has played 27 games this season priced as a money-line favorite higher than -150 — and they have only covered the -1.5 Run-Line 11 times with 7 wins by only one run and 9 upset losses. But after a slow start in those circumstances, the Astros have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 10 of those last 19 situations with 3 wins by one run and 6 upset losses — and in their last 8 games priced higher than -150, they have 5 victories all by more than one run. Chicago has lost 6 of their last 9 games by more than one run when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 10* MLB Run-Line Rout with the Houston Astros (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (973) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Johnny Cueto. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-22 |
Giants v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 |
|
7-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (36-27) has won six of their last seven games with their 2-0 victory in the opening game of this series. Pittsburgh (25-38) has lost ten of their last 11 games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have not allowed more than three runs in seven straight games — and they have held six of those opponents to two runs or less. The Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a win — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. San Francisco has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when favored. They give the ball to Wood who has a 4-5 record with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.36 and 3.03 moving forward. He left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .230 opponent’s batting average of .230 in six starts as compared to his 4.40 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .298 batting average in six starts at home. He faces a cold Pirates lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .167 Batting Average, .224 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. The Under is 12-4-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 20 games against a left-handed starting pitchers. The Pirates have scored one run or less in three of their last four games — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Quintana who has a 1-4 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 12 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in seven starts as compare to his 4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .260 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. The Pirates have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with Quintana their starting pitcher this season. Quintana also has a nice 3.16 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his six starts in the daytime. He faces a slumping Giants team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .207 Batting Average, .304 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .674 in those contests. San Francisco has played 5 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Pittsburgh has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-22 |
Guardians v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (932) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (931) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zach Plesac. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (39-23) has won two straight games after their 4-1 victory against the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday. Cleveland (32-27) has won four in a row after their 4-2 victory in Colorado yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Dodgers have won 39 of their last 48 home games when on a two-game or better winning streak. They have also won 15 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than one run in their last game. Los Angeles has not scored more than four runs in five straight games — but they have won 17 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than four runs in at leas three straight games. The Dodgers have not allowed more than four runs in four straight contests — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Los Angeles has also won 47 of their last 62 games at home. Kershaw takes the mound for them tonight making his second start after a stint on the injured list with a back issue. He allowed two runs in four innings of work at San Francisco last Saturday — but his four strikeouts were encouraging. The left-hander has a 4-1 record with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP in six starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics validate his effectiveness as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.81 and 2.74 moving forward. He was more effective at home last season where he had a 3.09 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in 11 starts as opposed to his 4.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in 11 starts on the road. The Dodgers have won 6 of their last 7 home games with Kershaw their starting pitcher with the Total set at 8-8.5 — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games in Interleague play with Kershaw on the mound. The Guardians have lost 4 in a row against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Cleveland has lost 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least four games in a row. They have still lost 13 of their last 17 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They have also lost 19 of their last 29 games in Interleague play as an underdog. They counter with Plesac who has a 2-4 record with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 11 starts. His ERA at home is 3.34 in his six starts at home — but his ERA on the road explodes to a 6.49 mark. This is consistent with his numbers last season when he had a 4.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .240 but a 5.18 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .256 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. The Guardians have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Plesac pitching as an underdog priced at +150 or higher — and they have lost 9 of their 10 Interleague games with Plesac their starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends listed above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. The Dodgers have been priced above my -150 price threshold 45 times this season. While they have been upset in 16 of these games, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 26 of their 29 victories when priced above -150. In their last 19 games priced above -150, they have lost eight times — but they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their 11 victories. Cleveland lost six of their last 10 games when priced at +145 or higher — and only one of those losses where by only one run. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers (932) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (931) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zach Plesac. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-22 |
Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
108 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (982) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (981) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: The Dodgers (37-23) have lost three in a row after their 2-0 loss to the Angels on Sunday. The Angels (29-33) have lost two of their last three games after a 4-1 loss at home to the New York Mets on Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE:
|
06-12-22 |
Mets v. Angels OVER 8.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980) listing both starting pitchers Taijaun Walker and Patrick Sandoval. THE SITUATION: The New York Mets (39-22) have lost three of their last four games after their 11-6 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels in the second game of this series. Los Angeles (29-32) has now won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five or more runs in their last game. New York has played three straight Overs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing three or more straight Overs. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. The Mets are dealing with a tired bullpen that has pitched nine innings in the last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched nine or more innings in their last two games. New York’s receivers surrendered six runs last night — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when their bullpen allowed four or more earned runs in their last game. Walker gets the ball for them tonight. He has a 3-2 record with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 9 starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.58 moving forward. His ERA on the road rises to a 3.41 mark -- and that coincides with the disparate home/road splits he was saddled with last season. While Walker had a 3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 16 games (15 starts) at home, those numbers rose to a 5.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 14 starts on the road. The Mets have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Walker the starting pitcher and priced up to +150. Walker’s teams have also played 7 straight Over when he is the starting pitcher in Interleague play. Walker faces an Angels team that ranks sixth in baseball in both weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created (wRC) when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles got Mike Trout back in the lineup last night — and he bashed two home runs to lead the scoring attack. The Angels banged out five home runs last night — and they have played 3 of their 4 games this season Over the Total after hitting four or more home runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 18 of their last 25 games at home Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. This team has played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total in June. They counter with Sandoval who has a 3-1 record along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The left-hander is walking too many batters — and both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.31 and 4.08 moving forward. His ERA bumps up to 3.00 in five starts at home this season. Last season, Sandoval had a 3-6 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 77 innings — but in his 48 1/3 innings at home, those numbers rose to a 3.91 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The Angels have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Sandoval pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets are hitting right now — they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 Batting Average and a .754 OPS over that span. New York has played 4 straight Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-22 |
Pirates v. Braves -1.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Wright and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (33-27) has won ten straight games after their 10-4 victory against the Pirates in the third game of this series yesterday. Pittsburgh (24-33) has lost five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The defending World Series champions are heating up with the temperature in Hotlanta — and they have won eight of their ten games during their winning streak by more than one run. Atlanta has won 6 straight games at home — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games when favored. They give the ball to Wright who has a 6-3 record along with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 11 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 0.92 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .173. He should fare well against this slumping Pirates team that is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .210 Batting Average, .255 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .594. Pittsburgh has lost 9 of their last 12 games after losing the first three games of a new series. The four runs they scored yesterday was the first time they scored more than three runs in their last seven games — but they have still lost 9 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than four runs in five straight contests. The Pirates have lost a decisive 67 of their last 91 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 4 in a row as an underdog. They counter with Quintana who has a 1-3 record with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 11 starts. But while he has a 2.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .248, those numbers rise to a 3.72 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in four starts on the road. He faces a Braves team that pulverizes left-handed pitching — they are scoring 6.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .271 Batting Average, .343 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .847 against lefties. Atlanta has won 6 straight home games against left-handed starting pitchers. They are also scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. Atlanta has played 21 games when priced as a money-line favorite priced higher than -150. They have 14 of these games with ten of those wins by more than one run — but they are heating up with seven straight wins priced over -150 with six of those wins by more than one run. Pittsburgh has played 29 games this season as an underdog priced at +145 or higher. They have 18 of these games — but only one time was that loss by just one run. If Atlanta wins, they should win by multiple runs. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Braves (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Wright and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-22 |
Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Phillies (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (29-29) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 7-5 victory against the Diamondbacks in Game One of this series last night. Arizona (28-32) has lost five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The firing of manager Joe Girardi was the wake-up call this talented team needed as they have won all seven of their games since his sacking at the beginning of the month. Philadelphia has won 6 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 22 of their last 32 games after winning at least three in a row. The Phillies have also won 5 in a row at home. Interim manager Rob Thomson gives the ball to Wheeler who has a 4-3 record along with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts. The sabermetrics are bullish on the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.07 and 3.03 moving forward. Wheeler struggled to find his velocity to begin the season after the abbreviated three-week spring training — but in his last seven starts, the right-hander has a 1.61 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in those 44 2/3 innings. In his six starts at home, Wheeler has a 1.73 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .202. He should thrive against this Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .195 Batting Average, .266 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .611. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks have also lost 41 of their last 51 road games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. Bumgarner is on the mound for Arizona with a 2-5 record along with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.78 and 4.81 moving forward. He has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. His ERA on the road rises to 4.16 in six starts. The Diamondbacks have lost 16 of their last 23 road games with Bumgarner pitching as an underdog — and they have lost 8 straight road games with Bumgarner pitching with the Total set at 8-8.5. He faces a tough assignment against this Phillies team that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .289 Batting Average, .363 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 962. Philadelphia scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Arizona has also lost 4 in a row against the Phillies when playing in Philadelphia.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. Philadelphia has played 26 games as an underdog priced at +145 or higher. They have pulled the upset 11 times — but nine of their twelve losses have been by more than one run. In their last seven games as a dog priced at +145 or higher, they have only one upset win — and five of their six losses have been by more than one run. The Phillies have played ten games priced as a money-line favorite priced above -150 — they have won seven of those games all by more than one run. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Phillies (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-22 |
Rockies v. Giants -1.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (29-24) has won two of their last three games after their 5-1 victory at Miami on Sunday. Colorado (23-21) has lost four in a row and nine of their last 12 games with their 8-7 loss at home to Atlanta on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco is only five games over .500 — but they have a net run differential of +0.5 Runs-Per-Game. They have won 42 of their last 60 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have won 22 of their last 30 games after an off day. They return home to Oracle Park where they have won 45 of their last 62 home games against teams with a losing record. Manager Gabe Kapler gives the ball to Carlos Rodon who has a 4-4 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are very encouraging on the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting a 3.25 and 3.30 ERA respectively moving forward. Rodon has 70 strikeouts in 55 innings. Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Rodon is clicking on all cylinders with an organization in the Giants that consistently coaches up its pitching staff. Rodon has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205. His teams have won 10 of their last 15 home games with Rodon pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should thrive against a Rockies team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games after left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Rockies have lost 8 straight games after an off day — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 opening games to a new series. Now Colorado goes back on the road where they have lost 15 of their 22 games this season — and they have lost all 7 road games when they are an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They are scoring just 3.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .242 Batting Average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .638. The lineup misses Kris Bryant who will likely remain on the Injured List through the All-Star break. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Marquez who has a 1-5 record along with a 6.71 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in 10 starts. That ERA is the highest in MLB for qualified starting pitchers. He has already served up 18 homers in his 55 innings. It has been even worse on the road where he has a 6.89 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in three starts. What is concerning for the ground-ball pitcher is that why had a 3.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in 18 starts last year, those numbers sky-rocketed to a 5.38 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in 14 starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Marquez on the mound as a money-line underdog. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has also lost 22 of their last 28 games against San Francisco.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. Scoring is down — and so are my investments in Run-Line favorites with teams like the Yankees and Astros not doing well covering these spreads. The Giants have played 13 games where they were favored at a price higher than my -150 threshold — while they have lost six of those games (not so good), all seven of their wins have been by more than one run (that’s good). Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog of +145 or higher 12 times this season — they have only have two upset wins in those games but all ten of their losses have been by multiple runs. This is when we want to invest in Run-Lines: San Francisco should win — and when they win (and the Rockies lose), it is usually by more than one run. So, let’s lower the investment price with the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-22 |
White Sox v. Rays -114 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-114 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (978) versus the Chicago White Sox (977) listing both starting pitchers Drew Rasmussen and Dylan Cease. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (31-21) has won three games in a row and five of their last seven after their 6-3 victory against the White Sox in the opening game of this series. Chicago (23-27) has lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has now won 37 of their last 54 games at home against teams with a losing record. They have also won 29 of their last 38 games with the Total set at 7 or lower. They give the ball to Rasmussen who has a 5-2 record this season with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 10 starts. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.10 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’’s batting average of .194. The Rays have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Rasmussen pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this White Sox team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 5 in a row against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Chicago is racked with injuries right now that is contributing to their disappointing start. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after losing at least three straight games. And while they have not scored more than three runs in three straight games, they have then lost 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than three runs in their last game. They counter with Cease who has a 4-2 record with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 10 starts. But while he has a 1.10 WHIP and a .192 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home, those numbers rise to a 1.48 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average in his four starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in 16 starts at home but a 4.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in 16 starts on the road. Chicago has lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Cease pitching as an underdog priced up to +150. The White Sox have lost 4 straight road games — and they have lost 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games in Tampa Bay — and the Rays have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (978) versus the Chicago White Sox (977) listing both starting pitchers Drew Rasmussen and Dylan Cease. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-22 |
Diamondbacks v. Pirates +106 |
Top |
8-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers J.T. Brubaker and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (22-27) has won three in a row and five of their last seven after their 8-4 upset win in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Arizona (25-27) has lost five of their last seven games after their 6-0 shutout loss at home against Atlanta on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: If you need more evidence that this Pittsburgh team is finally on the right path — how about them coming off a three-game sweep in Los Angeles against the Dodgers? The excellent farm system of the Pirates’ organization is finally starting to pay off. Pittsburgh has one of the better closers in the game right now in David Bednar — and they have only committed one error in their last four games after going the last two games in LA with a fielding mistake. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 9 games after not committing an error in two straight games. Now after completing their six-game road trip, they return home where they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. The starting pitching staff remains an issue — but J.T. Brubaker is a fine starting pitcher who has a 4.15 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 10 starts despite an 0-4 record. In four starts at home this season, his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.86 and 1.33 marks. Last season in 11 starts at home, Brubaker had a 3.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231. He had a 5.36 ERA last season — but that number dropped to a 3.86 ERA when playing teams with a losing record. Brubaker always had potential if he could stop serving up gopher balls, Last year, he allowed 2.06 home runs per nine innings. This season, that home run rate has plummeted to a 0.94 clip per nine innings. The Pirates have won 3 of his 4 starts at home this season — and they have won 3 of his 4 starts when he is pitching with five or six days of rest. He should have success against this slumping Diamondbacks lineup that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .229 Batting Average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .647. Arizona has lost 18 of their last 22 games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have lost 31 of their last 36 road games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Now after playing their last nine games at home, they go back on the road where they have lost 6 of their last 7 games when favored. The Diamondbacks should not have lost 110 games last year given their roster — but this is still a mediocre team at best in the beginnings of a long rebuild. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last seven games at home. They have also lost 50 of their last 60 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games this season with the Total set at 8-8.5. They counter with Merrill Kelly who has a 3-3 record with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.24 and 4.08 moving forward. In his four starts on the road, his ERA rises to a 5.40 mark. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 3.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts at home but a 5.18 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .291 opponent’s batting average on the road. After a jump in velocity that carried over from spring training, the speed on his four-seamer has dipped again — and he has been saddled with 9.00 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP in his last four starts. He has surrendered at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts — and he has only 13 strikeouts in those 17 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 16 road games with Kelly pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 5 in a row against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers J.T. Brubaker and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-22 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Nationals |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (956) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Erick Fedde. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (29-13) has won seven of their last eight games with their 9-4 victory on the road against the Nationals in the second game of their three-game series. Washington (14-30) has lost seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles should continue their momentum this afternoon. They have won 37 of their last 53 games after a win — and they have won 42 of their last 60 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have won 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. They give the ball to Urias who has a 3-3 record with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. The left-hander has a 2.63 ERA in five starts on the road. Last season, Urias was 20-3 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP — and he saw those baseline numbers improve to a 2.71 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 18 starts. The Dodgers have won 27 of their last 35 road games with Urias pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Nationals team scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. Washington has lost 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They have also lost 39 of their last 52 games at home — and they have lost 11 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Fedde who has a 2-3 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in eight starts. In four starts home, he has been saddled with a 6.88 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .309. Last year, Fedde had a 5.50 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP when pitching at home. He faces a red hot Dodgers lineup that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. Washington has lost 25 of their last 33 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Los Angeles has won 47 of their last 57 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. The Dodgers have played 28 games this season when priced above my -150 threshold (where I no longer consider the favorite or underdog straight up). Los Angeles has won 20 of these games by more than one run. They have lost six of these games outright — and only two of these games resulted in a one-run victory for them which would not cover the -1.5 Run-Line spread. Washington has played 21 games this year as an underdog priced at +145 or higher. They have pulled upsets in eight of those games — but they have lost 12 of them while only one time did they lose by just one run. Lower the investment price on the Dodgers by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Run-Line Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (956) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Erick Fedde. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-22 |
Braves v. Brewers -149 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (22-13) has won two of their last three games after their 7-3 victory at Miami on Sunday. Atlanta (16-19) has lost two of their last three games after a 7-3 loss at home to San Diego yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee should continue their momentum tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also won 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new series. They return home where they are 10-4 this season while scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game. The Brewers have won 10 of their last 14 games at home when priced as a -110 or higher money-line favorite — and they have won 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Peralta who has a 2-1 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in six starts. The 25-year-old offers a good example regarding the need to parse past the frontline numbers. He is one of many starting pitchers who struggled out of the gate due to the abbreviated spring training. In his last four starts, Peralta has a 2.08 ERA with 28 strikeouts and only five walks in 21 2/3 innings of work. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.03 and 3.10 respectively. The right-hander comes off a strong season last year where he posted similar numbers. In 144 1/3 innings of work, Peralta posted a 10-5 record with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP — and he enjoyed a 2.88 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .158 in 16 games (15 starts) at home last year. Milwaukee has won 10 of their last 15 games at home with Peralta pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He should pitch well against this Braves team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Atlanta has just a .216 Batting Average with a .273 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .653. Atlanta is just 6-8 on the road this season — and they have lost 16 of their last 23 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while the Braves have played six straight Overs, they have then lost 7 of their last 10 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They counter with Ian Anderson who has a 3-1 record with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in six starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not as bullish on Anderson’s start — his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.92 and 4.55 moving forward. In 24 starts last year, Anderson had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 which is pretty accurate measure of what he is doing now. Looking under the hood, there are some troubling signs for the right-hander. After striking out 29.2% of the batters he faced last year, that number dropped to 23.8% last year. Now this year, Anderson is only striking out 17.1% of the batters he has faced. And he continues to walk too many batters with 12.4% of the batters has faced getting a base-on-balls. Now he faces a Brewers team that scores 5.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 12 of their last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee opened as a money-line favorite in the -140 range — but with the news that Ronald Acuna remains out with an injury, the price has been slowly rising. I have a personal guideline to not endorse money-line favorites in MLB (and the NHL) if priced over -150 because I don’t like the expectation of needing to win these plays more than 60% of the time to break a profit. I find it to be helpful as to how to navigate a daily card. But I need to have deadlines as well. If it is late afternoon and I am still seeing -150 or lower prices, then I am comfortable in endorsing even if the price at some of the shops has moved higher than -150. I have no idea what the price will be when the game starts. If you end up having to invest more than -150, I still recommend the play. It’s a guideline, not a mandate sent down by the Gods from Mount Olympus. These two teams last played on May 8th when Atlanta won by a 9-2 score. The Brewers have won 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by six or more runs. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-22 |
Astros -143 v. Nationals |
|
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (975) versus the Washington Nationals (976) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Josiah Gray. THE SITUATION: Houston (21-11) has won nine straight games after their 5-0 victory at Minnesota yesterday. Washington (11-22) has lost three of their last four games and six of their last eight after their 4-1 loss at home to the New York Mets yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has shut out three straight opponents to extend their winning streak to nine games — and that is a harbinger for good things tonight. The Astros have won 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in three straight games. They have won 12 of their last 13 games after a win — and they have won 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have won 7 of their last 9 games — and they have won 5 straight road games when favored. Furthermore, Houston has won 20 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Framber Valdez makes the start with his 1-2 record along with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are good with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.23 and 3.35 respectively. The left-hander has thrived when pitching on the road so far this season where he has a 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .133 in four starts. This continues a trend from last season as he had a 2.88 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 11 starts on the road as opposed to his 3.45 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 11 starts at home. The Astros have won 11 of their last 16 games with Valdez pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. He should fare well against this Nationals team that has lost 24 of their last 33 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Washington has a 4-13 record at home so far this season. They are scoring only 2.5 Runs-Per-Game with a .198 batting average, .256 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 551. The Nationals have lost 41 of their last 56 games at home — and they have lost 11 of their last 13 home games as an underdog. Washington has also lost 18 of their last 25 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Gray who is 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in six starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.15 and 4.23 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home as he has been saddled with a 5.40 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .300 in three starts. Last season, Gray had a 6.23 ERA,1.36 WHIP, and .253 opponent’s batting average in 43 1/3 innings at home as compared to his 4.28 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .214 opponent’s batting average in 27 1/3 innings on the road. The Nationals have lost 8 of their last 9 home games with Gray pitching as a money-line underdog. Washington has also lost 20 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels have won 7 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (975) versus the Washington Nationals (976) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Josiah Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-22 |
Marlins v. Padres -125 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (912) versus the Miami Marlins (911) listing both starting pitchers You Darvish and Sandy Alcantara. THE SITUATION: San Diego (17-9) won their seventh game in their last nine with their 2-1 victory in their opening game of this series yesterday. Miami (12-13) has lost five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego is playing like the team that was expected to compete with the Dodgers for the NL West and National League crown last season. They have won 4 straight games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They have won 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have won 4 straight home games when favored. Manager Bob Melvin gives the ball to Darvish tonight who has a 2-1 record with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander has registered four Quality Starts in five starts this season — but one ugly start where he allowed nine earned runs in 1 2/3 innings continues to mar his early numbers. Darvish deserves the benefit of the doubt considering the abbreviated spring training which has wreaked havoc on many quality starting pitchers this season. Darvish had a 3.38 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 starts at home — and he has a 0.71 ERA with a 0.63 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .116 in his first two starts at home in Petco Park this season. San Diego has won 19 of their last 29 home games with Darvish pitching as a money-line priced at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against a Marlins team that is scoring only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Miami has also lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. Miami has now lost 41 of their last 53 games on the road as a money-line underdog — and they have lost 13 of their last 20 road games with the Total set at 7 or lower. They counter with Alcantara who has a 2-1 record with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander was 9-15 last season with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 33 starts. But while he sported a 2.41 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 16 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 4.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .247 in 17 starts on the road. This season, those disparate home/road splits are continuing — while he has a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 batting average but his WHIP rises to a 1.55 mark with a .250 opponent’s batting average in his first two starts on the road. Miami has lost 13 of their last 15 games with Alcantara on the mound with the Total set at 7 or lower with six straight losses on the road with the Total set at 7. San Diego is scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 7of their last 9 games against right-handed starters.
FINAL TAKE: The Marlins have lost 7 of their last 9 games in San Diego against the Padres. San Diego has won 9 of their last 11 games when favored. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (912) versus the Miami Marlins (911) listing both starting pitchers You Darvish and Sandy Alcantara. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-22 |
Phillies v. Mets -115 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (910) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (909) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: New York (15-6) has won four of their last five games after their 3-0 victory against the Phillies last night. Philadelphia (10-11) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Five New York pitchers combined to no-hit Philadelphia last night. The Mets have won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. This team looks rejuvenated under veteran manager Buck Showalter — and they are getting the production they expected last year when they signed Francisco Lindor to a huge contract as a free agent. And they are getting great pitching. Showalter turns to Walker tonight who is making just his second appearance this year after going in the injured list with a bout of bursitis in his right shoulder. The right-hander pitched a four-inning simulated game on Monday where he threw 64 pitches. With everything fine from that effort, he will have an 80 to 85 pitch limit tonight. He looked good in his first game of the year against these Phillies against which he struck out four batters in two scoreless innings on April 11th. Walker had a 7-11 record last season with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 159 innings. Walker struggles on the road where he had 5.82 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 14 starts. But back at home at Citi Field, Walker enjoyed a 3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 15 starts (16 games). The Mets have won 12 of their last 15 games when Walker is the starting pitcher priced as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. And if he gets in trouble, Showalter can turn to his red-hot bullpen that has a 1.73 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 26 innings at home. The Phillies have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 40 of their last 57 home games when favored. Philadelphia has lost 19 of their last 28 games after playing a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. They are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road where they have a 2-6 record this season — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games on the road. They counter with Gibson who has a 2-1 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in four starts. His best work has been at home where he owns a 1.42 ERA and a 0.55 WHIP in two starts — but his two worst starts have been on the road where he has a 5.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .275. These disparate home/road splits corroborate his splits from last year where he had a 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .206 opponent’s batting average in 14 games (13 starts) at home but a 4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in 17 starts on the road. Gibson did have a 3.71 ERA last season — but his SIERA and xFIP called for regression with those sabermetrics projecting ERAs of 4.40 and 4.14 respectively. The Phillies have lost 16 of their last 20 road games with Gibson pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And while Gibson also had a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 22 games (21 starts) at night — as opposed to his 2.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts in the afternoon — Philly has lost 13 of their last 15 road games at night with Gibson on the hill. The Mets have won 13 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers including five straight winners at home. They are scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game this season against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Bryce Harper has been playing at designated hitter for the Phillies — but he is not at full strength as he is bothered with an elbow. The Mets have won 10 of their 12 games this season when priced as a favorite up to my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Mets (910) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (909) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-07-22 |
Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (977) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (978) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Diego (0-0) looks to improve from a 79-83 record last season. Arizona (0-0) was 52-110 last year.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres are favored for this Opening Day contest — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when favored going back to last season. They have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when the favorite. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the number in the 9-10.5 range — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the number in the 9-10.5 range. First-year manager Bob Melvin gives the ball to Yu Darvish who had an 8-11 record with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. The 35-year-old right-hander enjoyed a great first half of the season — but he was saddled with a 6.16 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP to close the year while he dealt with hip and back issues. The best-case scenario is the offseason has allowed him to heal and regain his early-season form. Maybe … but he is giving up too many gopher balls in the second half of his career. He surrendered 1.52 home runs per nine innings last season. He also did his best work at home in the spacious Petco Park where he had a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 starts. But in his 13 starts on the road, Darvish had a 5.54 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244. The Padres have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with Darvish pitching and priced as a money-line favorite of -125 or higher. The Diamondbacks ended last season with the Over going 15-5-1 in their last twenty-one games against right-handed starting pitchers, and the over was 4-1-1 in their last six games when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers.
Arizona has seen the Over go 22-8-1 in their last 31 games when the oddsmakers install them as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games at home when the dog. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games with the Total set from 9 to 10.5 — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games at home. They counter with Bumgarner who was 7-10 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The good news for the 32-year-old lefty is that his velocity was up in spring training. But that was the same story we heard last year — and his strikeout rate of 20.2% was still below the league average. This is a pitcher on the decline — and the underlying numbers validate his front-line numbers as his SIERA and xFIP both projected an ERA of 4.57 and 4.85 last year. His numbers were slightly worse when pitching at home last year where he had a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.13 WHIP and .233 opponent’s batting average in 14 starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have played 8 straight games at home Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Over was 3-0-1 in Arizona’s last 4 games against teams from the NL West — and San Diego has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against divisional rivals. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (977) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (978) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-21 |
Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5 |
|
7-0 |
Loss |
-113 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (961) and the Houston Astros (962) listing both starting pitchers and Max Fried and Luis Garcia in Game Six of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (104-73) kept their season alive on Sunday with their victory against the Braves in Game Five. Atlanta (98-78) holds a 3-2 lead in the series and can win the MLB title tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 28-13-2 in the Astros’ last 43 games after a win — and the Over is 21-8-2 in their last 31 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Houston’s last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Astros return home where the Over is 14-6-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Garcia who had an 11-8 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in the regular season. But the right-hander has struggled in his last five starts with an 8.50 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. The Over is 3-0-1 in Atlanta’s last 4 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves go back on the road where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Fried who had a 14-7 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 28 regular season starts. The lefty was better at home where he had a 2.94 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in 14 starts — but those numbers rose to a 3.14 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 14 starts on the road. Fried has struggled in these playoffs. In his last two starts, he has a 10.24 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP spanning 9 2/3 innings. He faces an Astros team that is fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 6 of their last 9 playoff games where they could close out the series Over the Total. 10* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (961) and the Houston Astros (962) listing both starting pitchers and Max Fried and Luis Garcia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-21 |
Braves v. Astros -120 |
Top |
7-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Atlanta Braves (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Max Fried in Game Six of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (104-73) kept their season alive on Sunday with their victory against the Braves in Game Five. Atlanta (98-78) holds a 3-2 lead in the series and can win the MLB title tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston demonstrated their resolve by overcoming a first-inning grand slam on the road in Game Five to outscore the Braves by a 9-1 margin the rest of the way. The Astros have won 13 of their last 19 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Houston has also won 59 of their last 81 games after an off day — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 9 playoff games at Minute Maid Park. They have also won 28 of their last 40 home games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Garcia who had an 11-8 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in the regular season. The right-hander was more effective at home where he had a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 15 games (13 starts) as compared to his 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252. The Astros have won 8 of their last 10 home games with Garcia pitching with the Total set from 7 to 8.5. Atlanta blew their chance to win the World Series at home — and now they go on the road where they have lost 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. The Braves have lost 7 of their last 9 games in Interleague play on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games against American League teams as an underdog. They counter with Fried who had a 14-7 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 28 regular season starts. The lefty was better at home where he had a 2.94 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in 14 starts — but those numbers rose to a 3.14 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 14 starts on the road. Fried has struggled in these playoffs. In his last two starts, he has a 10.24 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP spanning 9 2/3 innings. The Braves have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Fried pitching as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. He faces an Astros team that has won 6 of their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has won 9 of their last 13 playoff games when trailing in the series — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games when facing elimination. Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 9 playoff games with the opportunity to close out a playoff series. 25* MLB Tuesday Television Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Atlanta Braves (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Max Fried in Game Six of the World Series. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-21 |
Astros -114 v. Braves |
Top |
9-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (959) versus the Atlanta Braves (960) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Tucker Davidson in Game Five of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (103-73) finds themselves on the brink of elimination after losing last night by a 3-2 score. Atlanta (98-77) has won four of their last five games to take a 3-1 lead in the World Series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Don’t count Houston out just yet — and win tonight takes the World Series back to Minute Maid Park for the final two games. The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games after a loss by just one run. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Framber Valdez tonight who had an 11-6 record in the regular season with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 22 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he had a 2.88 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 11 starts. In his last start on the road in the playoffs, Valdez pitched eight innings of one-run ball to clinch the ALCS at Boston on October 20th. In his last three starts away from home, Valdez has a 0.83 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP spanning 21 2/3 innings. Houston has won 5 of their last 7 road games with Valdez pitching as the favorite — and they have won 12 of his last 18 starts at night. Atlanta will be relying on yet another bullpen game tonight. Manager Brian Snitker will use Tucker Davidson for the first time since June 15th as his opener — this will be just his sixth career MLB start. He had a 3.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 innings in the regular season — but he sported a 5.14 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 14 innings at home. I thought this was the case last night — but I now highly suspect that Davidson is disguising a Drew Smyly bulk-inning outing after he allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings in the team’s bullpen game in Game Four of the NLCS against the Dodgers. The lefty had an 11-4 record in the regular season but with a 4.48 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 29 games (23 starts). In his 39 innings including the playoffs since the beginning of August, Smyly has a 4.85 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Despite winning three of the first four games in this series, the Braves have lost 10 of their last 14 games in Interleague play as an underdog. They have also lost 11 of their last 14 home games against American League teams.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 8 opportunities in the playoffs to close out the series — and Houston has won 8 of their last 12 playoff games when trailing in the series. The Astros have won 19 of their last 30 games when playing with double-revenge against their opponent. And while Houston has scored only two runs in the last two days in the World Series, they have won 13 of their last 21 games when avenging two losses to their opponent where they did not score more than two runs. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (959) versus the Atlanta Braves (960) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Tucker Davidson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-21 |
Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Dylan Lee. THE SITUATION: Houston (103-71) has lost two of the first three games in the World Series after their 2-0 loss last night. Atlanta (97-77) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 4-0-1 in the Astros' last 5 games after a loss — and the Over is 11-5-2 in their last 18 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Greinke who allowed two runs and walked three batters in 1 1/3 innings in his last appearance which was a starting assignment in Game Four of the ALCS on October 19th. The veteran was 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in the regular season. A midseason decline in form was worsened after suffering a bout with COVID in August. In his last six starts, Greinke has an 11.21 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. And in his career 105 1/3 innings in the playoffs, the right-hander has a 4.10 ERA. Atlanta has played 26 of their last 37 home games in Interleague play against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Over is also 6-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 8 games in Interleague play at home. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in the Braves last 5 games after a win — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Manager Brian Snitker has run out of reliable starting pitchers due to injuries — so tonight is a bullpen game (in Game Four of the World Series …). He gives the ball to Dylan Lee whose 2 2/3 innings in this postseason match his career 2 2/3 innings at the major league level in his rookie season this year. Lee is probably disguising a Drew Smyly bulk-inning outing after he allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings in the team’s bullpen game in Game Four of the NLCS against the Dodgers. The lefty had an 11-4 record in the regular season but with a 4.48 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 29 games (23 starts). In his 39 innings including the playoffs since the beginning of August, Smyly has a 4.85 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The Over is 6-0-10 in Houston’s last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog. 20* MLB Houston-Atlanta Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Dylan Lee. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-21 |
Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-101 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Houston (103-71) evened the World Series at 1-1 with their 7-2 victory on Wednesday. Atlanta (96-77) had been on a two-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is 21-7-2 in their last 30 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 11-4-2 in their last 17 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off day. They go on the road where they have played 5 straight Overs — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Garcia who has an 11-8 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 30 regular season appearances (28 starts). The right-hander comes off 5 2/3 scoreless innings in his last start in Game Six of the ALCS last Friday. But that start was at home where he had a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in the regular season. On the road, Garcia’s numbers jump to a 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in 15 regular season starts. The Astros have played 10 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Keep in mind that Garcia had been rocked with a 16.60 ERA and a 2.65 WHIP in his previous three starts while allowing at least five earned runs in each appearance. He faces a Braves team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .273 batting average. Atlanta has played 26 of their last 35 home games in Interleague play against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Over is also 6-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 8 games in Interleague play at home. Manager Brian Snitker counters with Anderson who had a 9-5 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 24 regular season starts. There has been a steady decline in his performances as the season has moved on — he has a 3.72 ERA in his last eight starts since the beginning of September. He did allow only one earned run in four innings in his last appearance in Game Six of the NLCS on Saturday. The Braves have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Anderson following an effort where he allowed one earned run or less — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when he is pitching on five or six days of rest. Atlanta has also played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Anderson pitchers at home.
FINAL TAKE: Houston is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and the Over is 7-2-2 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The weather may drop into the high-40s tonight and it may be rainy. That is a two-way straight since the yucky conditions impact the pitchers as much as the hitters. If the Total was 10 or higher, I would worry a little more about the weather. At 8.5, I’m fine. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-21 |
Braves v. Astros -108 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (954) versus the Atlanta Braves (953) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Max Fried. THE SITUATION: Houston (102-71) had their three-game winning streak snapped last night by losing Game One of the World Series by a 6-2 score. Atlanta (96-76) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston should rebound tonight to even this series. The Astros have won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have still won 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home when favored — and they have won 35 of their last 51 home games against teams with a winning record. Dusty Baker turns to Urquidy tonight as he looks to bounce back from allowing six runs (five earned) in 1 2/3 innings in his last start in Game Three of the ALCS on October 18th. The right-hander had an 8-3 record in the regular season with a 3.62 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts. He was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 3.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 10 starts. In his 12 starts at night, Urquidy had a 2.89 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .193 — so he should pitch better tonight. Houston has won 11 of their last 16 home games with Urquidy making the start at home — and they have won seven of his ten starts at home this season. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs even after last night. Atlanta has lost 16 of their last 23 games in Interleague play — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against American League teams when the money-line underdog. Additionally, the Braves have lost 5 of their last 8 playoff games on the road. They counter with Fried who had a 14-7 record in 28 regular season starts along with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He was not as effective on the road where he had a 3.14 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 14 starts as opposed to his 2.94 ERA and .219 opponent’s batting average at home during the regular season. The Braves have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Fried pitching as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. The left-hander got hit hard in his last start when he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings in Game Five of the NLCS last Wednesday. He faces an Astros team that ranks fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Houston has also won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has still won 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 10 playoff games when trailing in the series. 20* MLB World Series Game Two Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (954) versus the Atlanta Braves (953) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-21 |
Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (953) and the Houston Astros (954)listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Jose Urquidy. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (96-76) took a 1-0 lead in the World Series with their 6-2 victory against the Astros last night. Houston (102-71) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Atlanta has now won three of their last four games — and they have played 45 of their last 80 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. The Braves have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total in the 7-8.5 range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. Atlanta pitches Fried who had a 14-7 record in 28 regular season starts along with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He was not as effective on the road where he had a 3.14 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 14 starts as opposed to his 2.94 ERA and .219 opponent’s batting average at home during the regular season. The left-hander got hit hard in his last start when he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings in Game Five of the NLCS last Wednesday. He faces an Astros team that has played 6 straight Overs against left-handed starting pitchers. Houston has played 4 straight Overs after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. After the Astros bullpen logged in seven innings last night, they have pitched 10 1/3 innings in their last two games — and they have then palled 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched at least nine combined innings in their last two games. Dusty Baker turns to Urquidy tonight as he looks to bounce back from allowing six runs (five earned) in 1 2/3 innings in his last start in Game Three of the ALCS on October 18th. The right-hander had an 8-3 record in the regular season with a 3.62 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts. In his last six starts, Urquidy has a 5.27 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Houston has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total with Urquidy pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces an Atlanta team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (953) and the Houston Astros (954)listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Jose Urquidy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-21 |
Braves v. Astros -129 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-129 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (952) versus the Atlanta Braves (951) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Houston (102-70) won the final three games in the American League Championship Series culminating in a 5-0 win against Boston on Friday to win the series in six games. Atlanta (95-76) defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in six games in the National League Championship Series after their 4-2 win on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston should build off the momentum they established in defeating the Red Sox. The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games after a win — and they have won 45 of their last 67 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Houston has also won 59 of their last 79 games after at least one day off between games. The Astros host the first two games in this series at Minute Maid Park where they have won 43 of their last 62 games when favored. Houston has also won 6 of their last 7 playoff games when favored — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Dusty Baker taps Valdez as his starting pitcher. The left-hander had an 11-6 record in the regular season with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 22 starts. He will have plenty of confidence tonight after pitching eight innings where he allowed only one run in his last start last Wednesday in Boston. The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games with Valdez pitching when favored up to a price of -150. Houston has also won 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs with Valdez the starting pitcher. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs. Atlanta has lost 16 of their last 22 games in Interleague play — and they have lost 4 straight games against American League teams when the money-line underdog. Additionally, the Braves have lost 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. They counter with Morton who had a 14-6 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 33 starts in the regular season. Morton has not been as effective in these playoffs — he has an 0-1 record with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings. Atlanta has lost all 4 games this season with Morton starting on the road when they are listed as a money-line underdog. The Braves have also lost 10 of their last 13 games with Morton facing an American League team — and they have lost 5 of their 6 games this season with Morton starting in an interleague game.
FINAL TAKE: Houston is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .287 Batting Average, .348 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .806. The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 straight games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 20* MLB World Series Game One Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (952) versus the Atlanta Braves (951) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-21 |
Dodgers -144 v. Braves |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-144 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (923) versus the Atlanta Braves (922) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (112-61) pulled within a 3-2 margin in this series on Thursday with their 11-2 victory against the Braves at home. Atlanta (94-76) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Two things happened within the last 12 or so hours that put this 25* side opportunity into play. First, Max Scherzer was pulled as the Dodgers starting pitcher with his continued arm issues. I don’t know how to assess the “dead arm” he claimed to have on Sunday (that, hopefully, is a Tomorrow Problem). Second, with Buehler being tapped as the starting pitcher on three days rest, the money-line price has dropped below my -150 price threshold. I’m not as worried about the short rest — he pitched on three days rest against San Francisco in the NLDS on October 12th where he allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander had a 16-4 record with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 33 starts in the regular season. He had a 2.47 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average in 27 starts at night. He has a reliable 3.32 ERA in 13 starts in the postseason. He has a 3.37 ERA in his two starts against Atlanta this season including his 3 2/3 innings against them on Tuesday. Buehler did have seven days off after pitching on three days rest and his start in Game Three of the NLCS. He has thrown just 8 innings since October 8th. The Dodgers should build off the momentum they established on Thursday when they banged five home runs. They have won 4 of their last 5 games after hitting at least five home runs in their last game. They have won 36 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 10 runs in their last contest. They have also won 38 of their last 56 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they have won 8 of their last 11 games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. Atlanta has lost 7 of their last 11 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least ten runs in their last game — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least eight runs. They counter with Anderson who has a 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 24 regular season starts. After giving up two runs in 3 innings last Sunday where he allowed three hits and walked three batters, he now has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP in his last nine starts this season. He has a 7.40 ERA in 7 1/3 innings against the Dodgers this year. LA also has a bullpen edge tonight — especially coming off the day of rest. The Dodgers have a 3.08 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season — and they have a 2.57 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in their last seven games. The Braves bullpen has a 4.36 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in their last seven games — and they have a 3.94 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP for the year.
FINAL TAKE: While the Dodgers are dealing with a long list of injuries, they still have superstars like Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Cody Bellinger leading a core of players with tons of deep postseason experience. Atlanta has Freddie Freeman and then younger talent and retreads. It matters. The Braves have lost 5 of their last 7 close-out games in the playoffs. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 6 potential elimination games in the playoffs (including all three this season). 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (923) versus the Atlanta Braves (922) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-21 |
Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (922) and the Houston Astros (921) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Garcia. THE SITUATION: Boston (98-74) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Five in the American League Championship Series by a 9-1 score on Wednesday. Houston (101-70) has won four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros have scored 18 runs in their last two games. The Over is 21-5-2 in Houston’s last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 15-5-2 in their last 22 games after not allowing more than one run in their last game. They return home to Minute Maid Park where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total in the playoffs. The Astros have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They have also played 4 straight Overs with the number set in the 9-10.5 range. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Garcia after he was bombed for five runs in just one inning in his start on Saturday. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games despite only scoring three runs in their last two games. Boston is not going to go down without a fight. They have played 7 straight Overs after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off day. They go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Manager Alex Cora has had to lean heavily on his bullpen given his faltering starting pitchers. The Red Sox pen has pitched 3 2/3 and 4 innings in their last two games — and they have allowed four and seven earned runs in those games. Eovaldi pitched out of the bullpen on Tuesday — and in his 24 pitches, he got crushed for four runs. He is pitching on short rest because Cora is out of options. In theory, Eovaldi’s outing on Tuesday was on his normal bullpen workout day between starts. In practice, the mental and physical stress of pitching in the playoffs is much more grueling than a mere bullpen session to work out some kinks. And that appearance was at home at Fenway Park where he had a 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in 19 regular season starts. Now Eovaldi pitches on the road where he was saddled with a 4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in 13 regular season starts. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with Eovlaid pitching as an underdog. He faces a hot-hitting Astros team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .271 Batting Average and a .341 On-Base Percentage in their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 straight Overs when playing each other. Given the starting pitchers for this game, expect another higher-scoring game. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (922) and the Houston Astros (921) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Garcia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-21 |
Red Sox v. Astros -105 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: Houston (101-70) took a 3-2 lead in the American League Championship Series with their 9-1 win against the Red Sox on Wednesday. Boston (98-74) looks to stave off elimination tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has all the momentum in this series after winning the last two games on the road at Fenway Park by a combined 18-3 run margin. They usually feed off this positive energy. The Astros have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after a win by at least eight runs. Houston has plated nine runners in two straight games. They have won 12 of their last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 18 of their last 26 games after scoring at least eight runs in two straight contests. The Astros return home to Minute Maid Park where they have won 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 15 of their last 23 home games when priced in the +/- 125 range. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Garcia after he was bombed for five runs in just one inning in his start on Saturday. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he had a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 15 appearances (13 starts) in the regular season — as compared to his 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .252 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts on the road. Garcia’s start on Saturday was during the day — and he had a 4.24 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in seven regular-season afternoon appearances (six starts). Under the lights, Garcia pitched better with a 3.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 23 games pitched at night (22 starts). Baker will have a quick hook for Garcia if he struggles — and he has the benefit of a rested bullpen that has only pitched one inning in the last two days with the off-day and Framber Valdez’s eight innings on Wednesday. The Astros bullpen has a 3.59 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP at home this year. Boston has lost 13 of their last 18 games after losing two in a row by four or more runs — and they have lost 4 of their last 6 games after losing their last two games by at least six runs. Manager Alex Cora has had to lean heavily on his bullpen given his faltering starting pitchers. The Red Sox pen has pitched 3 2/3 and 4 innings in their last two games — and they have allowed four and seven earned runs in those games. Boston has lost 38 of their last 60 games after their bullpen allowed at least four earned runs in their last game including losing 13 of those 21 circumstances this season. Eovaldi pitched out of the bullpen on Tuesday — and in his 24 pitches, he got crushed for four runs. He is pitching on short rest because Cora is out of options. In theory, Eovaldi’s outing on Tuesday was on his normal bullpen workout day between starts. In practice, the mental and physical stress of pitching in the playoffs is much more grueling than a mere bullpen session to work out some kinks. And that appearance was at home at Fenway Park where he had a 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in 19 regular season starts. Now Eovaldi pitches on the road where he was saddled with a 4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in 13 regular season starts. Boston has lost 6 of their last 9 road games with Eovaldi pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. He faces a hot-hitting Astros team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .271 Batting Average and a .341 On-Base Percentage in their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has lost 5 of their last 7 games at Minute Maid Park in Houston. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-21 |
Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
|
2-11 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Joe Kelly. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (94-75) took a 3-1 lead in the National League Championship Series last night in their 9-2 victory on the road against the Dodgers. Los Angeles (111-61) looks to stave off elimination tonight in defense of their World Series championship last season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We have been riding the Overs all week — but I hope that has more to do with being on the winning side than it is hacking with the Over. I expect a lower-scoring game tonight for several reasons. It starts with the Braves Max Fried who had a 14-7 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in the regular season. He allowed only two runs in six innings in Game One of the NLCS last weekend. Fried is pitching great — he has a 0.77 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in his last five appearances including this postseason. In those 22 innings, he has walked only one batter! He is not going to give any freebies to this slumping Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .232 Batting Average, .311 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658 over that span. Los Angeles misses Max Muncy — and now they are without Justin Turner who suffered a pulled injury yesterday. Atlanta has played 8 straight Unders with Fried pitching as an underdog priced up to +150. The Braves have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. And while Atlanta has played three straight Overs in this series, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. They have played 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total in the playoffs. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss at home where they were priced as a -200 or higher favorite. Manager Dave Roberts has decided to use Joe Kelly as his opener in a game that was already slotted to be a bullpen game. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.66 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .133 in 23 2/3 innings as compared to his 3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .218 opponent’s batting average in 20 1/3 innings on the road. He should get the Dodgers off to a good start in a game where Roberts will be aggressive to use everyone pitcher at his disposal to keep this series alive.
FINAL TAKE: A wildcard for me is that this is a twilight afternoon game in Los Angeles to accommodate the east coast prime-time audience — and that means shadows in the eye-sight line for the batters for a stretch in the middle of this game out west. The Under is 19-9-1 in the Dodgers’ last 29 games at home in the playoffs. 10* MLB Atlanta-LA Dodgers TBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Joe Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-21 |
Braves v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
Top |
9-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (917) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (918) (action if you can, but being required to list Jesse Chavez and Julio Urias — or whoever — is fine). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (93-75) blew a 5-2 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning by giving up four runs in a 6-5 loss to the Dodgers. Los Angeles (111-60) still trails 2-1 in the National League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves had won five straight games before their loss yesterday. Atlanta has played 43 of their last 68 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Manager Brian Snitker has a pitching problem for this game — the result of a long season where they have lost several starting pitchers to injury. Snitker initially decided on Huascar Ynoa to pitch tonight — but he has been scratched after experiencing shoulder inflammation late this afternoon. It looks like Snitker will use Jesse Chavez as his opener — he comes off giving up two hits and walking a batter as the final pitcher for the Braves in that disastrous 8th inning last night. Luke Jackson gave up four runs to begin the inning. Both pitchers may be lacking in confidence. The Atlanta hitters need to assume that they need to score plenty of runs tonight given this being a bullpen game — but they get to play with reckless abandon. The Braves have scored five runs in three of their last four games. They are heavy underdogs tonight — and they have played 41 of their last 61 games when a money-line underdog priced at +200 or higher. Los Angeles has stranded ten runners in two straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after stranding ten or more runners in two straight games. Furthermore, the Dodgers have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Dave Roberts gives the ball to Urias who had a 20-3 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 32 starts in the regular season. The left-hander allowed two runs in an inning of relief on Sunday in Game Two of this series. While Roberts can tell himself he just used Urias’ normal bullpen session between starts for that inning of work, pitching in the playoffs is more stressful than just the regular bullpen session a couple of days after a previous start. Urias has not been as effective at home either where he has a 3.27 ERA in 14 starts in the regular season as opposed to his 2.71 ERA in 18 starts on the road. Urias also sees his ERA rise to a 3.38 mark in his 37 1/3 innings in the playoffs. Los Angeles has played 5 straight Overs with Urias their starting pitcher in October. The Dodgers have also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total with Urias pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when trailing in a playoff series including all four occasions this season. Atlanta has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when leading in a playoff series including all three this season. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (917) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (918) (action if you can, but being required to list Jesse Chavez and Julio Urias — or whoever — is fine). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-21 |
Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 |
|
9-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Houston (100-70) evened the American League Championship Series at 2-2 with their dramatic 9-2 victory against the Red Sox last night. Boston (98-73) has still won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After both teams blew scoring opportunities for most of the game, the Astros finally broke through with seven runs in the top of the ninth inning to even this series. While I am not just an auto-Over zombie for this series, I do expect another high-scoring game given the respective starting pitchers confronting two teams swinging hot bats. The Over is 20-7-2 in Houston’s last 29 games after a win — and the over is 20-5-2 in their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is now 10-3-2 in Houston’s last 14 games on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. The Astros have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9-10.5 range. Manager Dusty Baker turns to his Game One starter in Valdez who gave up three runs (two earned) in only 2 2/3 innings last Friday. The left-hander had an 11-6 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in the regular season. But in his last seven starts including the playoffs, Valdez has a 4.66 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Furthermore, in his three postseason appearances this year, Valdez has a 7.50 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. Houston has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Valdez pitching after a win in their previous game. Baker will likely give him a quick hook when he gets into trouble tonight — but the Houston bullpen has a 4.49 ERA and 1.38 WHIP when pitching on the road this season. Baker has used his relievers to pitch 6 1/3, 8 innings, and 7 2/3 innings in the last three games in this series — and Houston has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitches at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Valdez faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .311 Batting Average, .374 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .955. Boston has played 6 straight Overs after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They stay at home at Fenway Park for the final time in this series where the Over is 18-5-1 in their last 24 home games — and the Over is 23-8-4 in their last 35 home games in the playoffs. Boston has also played 34 of their last 50 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Manager Alex Cora counters with Sale who allowed only one run in 2 2/3 innings of work in Game One on Friday — but he allowed five base hits and walked a batter. The left-hander has a 5-1 record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine regular-season starts. But in his last four outings, Sale has a 9.00 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP. And in his career 22 2/3 innings in the playoffs, Sale has an 8.74 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP over nine appearances including six starts. The Red Sox have played all 6 of his playoff starts Over the Total. Boston has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Sale pitching when favored from a -125 to -175 price. The Boston bullpen has a 4.34 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at home this year.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros are scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 8-2-1 in Houston’s last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 20* MLB Houston-Boston FS1-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-21 |
Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 |
Top |
9-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: Houston (99-70) trails 2-1 in the American League Championship Series after their 12-3 loss to the Red Sox last night. Boston (98-72) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is now 9-3-2 in Houston’s last 14 games on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 120 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. The Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9-10.5 range. Consistently winning MLB Totals bets requires assessing the competing starting pitchers. Manager Dusty Baker turns to Greinke to make just his fourth appearance since the beginning of September. The veteran right-hander has been recovering from a difficult bout with COVID. For the season, he has an 11-6 record with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. His decline this season began before testing positive for COVID. After posting a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 before the All-Star Game, he has since had a 5.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 since the All-Star Break. In his last five appearances, Greinke has an 11.04 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. And in his lone appearance against the Red Sox this season, he gave up four runs and seven hits in just three innings. The Astros have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Greinke pitching in games when they are priced in the +/- 125 range. Baker will likely give him a quick hook when he gets into trouble tonight — but the Houston bullpen has a 4.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in their last seven games. The Astros pen also has a 4.62 ERA and 1.39 WHIP when pitching on the road this season. Baker has used his relievers to pitch 6 1/3 and 8 innings in the last two games in this series — and Houston has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitches at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Greinke faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .324 Batting Average, .370 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .950. The Over is 13-2-1 in Boston’s last 16 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total after a win by six or more runs. They have also played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after scoring at least ten runs in their last game. They stay at home at Fenway Park where the Over is 17-5-1 in their last 22 home games — and the Over is 22-8-4 in their last 33 home games in the playoffs. Boston has also played 33 of their last 49 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Manager Alex Cora counters with Pivetta who has a 9-8 record with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 31 games (30 starts) this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 — but those numbers rise to a 5.40 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in his 15 starts at home in Fenway Park. Pivetta has a 4.91 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP since the All-Star Break. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Pivetta pitching when favored in the -125 to -175 price range. The Boston bullpen has a 4.21 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home this year.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 7-2-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-21 |
Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
3-12 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Boston Red Sox (910) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Houston (99-69) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 9-5 loss at home to the Red Sox. Boston (97-72) has won four of their last five games to even this ALCS at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 19-5-2 in the Astros’ last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 8-3-2 in Houston’s last 14 games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9-10.5 range. They give the ball to Urquidy who has an 8-3 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 — but those numbers rise to a 3.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in ten starts. In his last five starts, Urquidy has a 4.44 ERA. There is a reason he has not pitched since October 3rd with manager Dusty Baker looking elsewhere for his starting pitching and bullpen options. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .318 Batting Average, .371 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .924. Boston has played 5 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after allowing at least five runs in their last game They return home to Fenway Park where the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games — and the Over is 21-8-4 in their last 33 home games in the playoffs. Boston has also played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They counter with Rodriguez who has a 13-8 record with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 32 games (31 starts). The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.95 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .273 opponent’s batting average on the road. In his last eight starts, Rodriguez has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .293 Batting Average, .360 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .851. Houston has played 4 straight Overs against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Monday TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Boston Red Sox (910) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-21 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (110-59) lost the opening game of this best-of-seven series in the National League Championship Series with their 2-1 loss to the Braves on Saturday. Atlanta (92-74) has won six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LIKNE: Los Angeles has still won 22 of their last 28 games — and 19 of those 22 victories were by more than one run. The Dodgers have still won 30 of their last 40 games after playing a game where neither side scored more than three runs. Los Angeles has not allowed more than four runs in nine straight games — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least six games. And while the Dodgers have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then won 50 of their last 67 games after playing two straight Unders. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 44 of their last 58 games when favored — and they have won 39 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Dave Roberts gave Scherzer an extra day of rest after he got the save in Game Five of the NLDS with a 13-pitch ninth inning on Thursday. The right-hander had a 15-4 record with a 2.46 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP in the regular season with the Dodgers and Washington Nationals. Since being acquired by Los Angeles, Scherzer posted a 7-0 record with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in 11 regular season starts. In his three appearances in this postseason, Scherzer has a 1.46 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in 12 1/3 innings. His teams have won 13 of their last 14 games on the road as a money-line favorite priced at -125 or higher when he is making the start. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .236 Batting Average, .297 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .688. Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have lost 4 of their last 6 games in the playoffs as an underdog. And in their last 7 home games in the NLCS, the Braves have lost 5 of these games. They counter with Anderson who has a 9-5 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 24 starts. He has regressed a in the second half of the season a bit with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in his last eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics have been calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 moving forward. Anderson did pitch five scoreless innings in his last start on Monday in the NLDS against Milwaukee — but Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 games with Anderson following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. The Braves have also lost 5 of their last 7 games with Anderson pitching as a money-line underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. They have covered the -1.5 Run-Line spread in 18 of their last 21 victories when favored at a -155 or higher price including nine of these last ten situations. 25* MLB Sunday TBS-TV Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-16-21 |
Dodgers +100 v. Braves |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) versus the Atlanta Braves (906) (action — do not list the starting pitchers). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (110-58) begins their series having win 22 of their last 27 games after defeating San Francisco in the fifth game of their NDLS with a 2-1 win on Thursday. Atlanta (91-74) has won five of their last six games after dispatching of the Milwaukee Brewers in four games in their NLDS with their 5-4 victory on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 30 of their last 39 games after playing a game where neither side scored more than three runs. The Dodgers have not allowed more than two runs in four straight games — and they have won 22 of their last 27 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Manager Dave Roberts finally communicated late this afternoon that he is pushing Max Scherzer back to Sunday after he threw 13 pitches to close out the ninth inning on Thursday. Corey Knebel will be the opener with Tony Gonsolin a likely bulk inning pitcher. Knebel was effective as the opener in Game Five of the Giants series — he did not allow a run in his inning of work while punching out one batter. Gonsolin is a quality pitcher who was in the Dodgers rotation when healthy this season. He has a 4-1 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has not pitched in two weeks — if he does not have his stuff, then Roberts will lift him immediately. Even if this is a bullpen game, Los Angeles is in good hands. Their bullpen has a 1.86 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP in their last seven games — and they posted a 2.98 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. The Dodgers have won 8 of their last 11 road games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games road games against winning teams. Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Fried who had a 14-7 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 28 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.76 and 3.45 marks moving forward. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 4 straight road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have lost 5 of their last 6 home games in the NLCS — and they have lost 16 of their last 23 opening games in a new playoff series. In a pick ‘em game given the price from the books, let’s take the better team. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) versus the Atlanta Braves (906) (action — do not list the starting pitchers just in case Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts changes his mind about who will pitch in the first inning). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-21 |
Red Sox v. Astros -110 |
|
9-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (904) versus the Boston Red Sox (903) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: Houston (99-68) took the opening game of this seven-game ALCS series by a 5-4 score last night. Boston (96-72) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. They have won 45 of their last 66 games at home at Minute Maid Park — and they have won 39 of their last 56 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Garcia who has an 11-8 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 30 games (28 starts) this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 15 games (13 starts). The Astros have won 8 of their last 9 home games with Garcia pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a Red Sox team that has only a .245 Batting Average on the road with a .307 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .732. Boston has lost 14 of their last 19 road games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Eovaldi who has an 11-9 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. The right-hander does his best pitching at home where he owns a 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in 19 starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in 13 starts on the road. The Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Eovaldi pitching as an underdog priced up to +150. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .313 Batting Average, .377 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .920.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has won 6 straight games when favored. 10* MLB Boston-Houston Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (904) versus the Boston Red Sox (903) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-21 |
Red Sox v. Astros -130 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (902) with the money-line versus the Boston Red Sox (901) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Houston (98-68) reached the ALCS with their 10-1 win at Chicago against the White Sox to end that series in four games. Boston (96-71) reached the American League Championship Series with their 6-5 victory against Tampa Bay on Monday to close out that ALDS in four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston scored at least six runs in seven straight games — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after scoring at least six runs in six straight games. They host the first two games of this best-of-five series where they have won 44 of their last 65 games — and they have won 38 of their last 55 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Valdez who has an 11-6 record this season with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Houston has won 5 of their last 7 home games with Valdez pitching when priced as a money-line favorited priced up to -150. The Red Sox give the ball to Sale who had a 5-1 record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts in the regular season. The left-hander got rocked in his start against the Rays as he gave up five runs in one inning of work last Friday. In his last three starts, Sale has a 10.84 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP. All three of those starts were on the road where Sale has been less effective this season. While Sale has a 2.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in nine starts at home, those numbers rise to a 4.61 ERA and 146 WHIP in his three regular starts on the road. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .311 Batting Average, .375 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .913.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has lost 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and Houston has won 5 straight games when favored. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Astros (902) with the money-line versus the Boston Red Sox (901) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-21 |
Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Boston (96-71) reached the American League Championship Series with their 6-5 victory against Tampa Bay on Monday to close out that ALDS in four games. Houston (98-68) reached the ALCS with their 10-1 win at Chicago against the White Sox to end that series in four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Boston’s bullpen has pitched at least four innings in their last three games, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in three straight games. Additionally, Boston has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Sale who had a 5-1 record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts in the regular season. The left-hander got rocked in his start against the Rays as he gave up five runs in one inning of work last Friday. In his last three starts, Sale has a 10.84 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP. All three of those starts were on the road where Sale has been less effective this season. While Sale has a 2.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in nine starts at home, those numbers rise to a 4.61 ERA and 146 WHIP in his three regular starts on the road. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .311 Batting Average, .375 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .913. Houston has scored at least six runs in seven straight games. The Over is 18-7-2 in The Astros’ last 27 games after a win — and the Over is 17-5-2 in their last 24 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 9-2-2 in their last 13 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They host this game at Minute Maid Park where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston has played 40 of their last 59 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Valdez who has an 11-6 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 22 starts. The lefty has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.45 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 11 starts. In his last six starts, Valdez has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in six starts.
FINAL TAKE: Valdez faces a hot-hitting Red Sox team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .317 Batting Average, .375 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 913 in their last seven games. 25* MLB Friday Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-21 |
Dodgers v. Giants -110 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (972) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (971). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (109-57) returns home to host the final game of this National League Divisional Series. Los Angeles (109-58) evened this best-of-five series at 2-2 with their 7-2 victory at home on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has bounced back to win 38 of their last 55 games after a loss. They have also won 19 of their last 24 games after an off day. They get the advantage of hosting this climactic final game of this series where they have won 53 of their last 81 games at home with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Gabe Kapler gets to use his ace in Logan Webb tonight. The right-hander had an 11-3 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in the regular season. He pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings with ten strikeouts in Game One of this series — and the Giants have won 11 of their last 12 games when he is following up an outing where he did not allow more than one earned run. When pitching at home at Oracle Park this season, he has a 1.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts) in the regular season. San Francisco has won 13 straight home games with Webb their starting pitcher. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 14 of their last 21 games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. Manager Dave Roberts has chosen to use Corey Knebel as their opener before turning to Julio Urias — but that might be a dangerous move in a crucial game tonight. Knebel has opened four times this season — but while he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season, those numbers rise to a 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP when he is on the road. Urias has a 20-6 record this season with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. I do take note that both his SIERA and xFIP project regression with 3.64 and 3.73 marks moving forward.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have lost 8 of their last 11 games in San Francisco against the Giants at Oracle Park. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-San Francisco TBS-TV Special with the San Francisco Giants (972) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (971) (action — don’t list the starting pitchers just in case Roberts changes his mind about using Urias in the first inning). Best of luck — Frank.
|
10-14-21 |
Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (971) and the San Francisco Giants (972) listing both starting pitchers Corey Knebel and Logan Webb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (109-58) evened this best-of-five series at 2-2 with their 7-2 victory at home on Tuesday. San Francisco (109-57) returns home to host the final game of this National League Divisional Series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have held the Giants to two runs or less in the last three games of this series after their opening game 4-0 shutout loss (against Webb). Not only has Los Angeles played 38 of their last 62 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game, but they have also played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Dodgers have also played 15 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an off day. The day of rest will help the Los Angeles bullpen be ready for this game — a showdown in which manager Dave Roberts will use every healthy starting pitcher at his disposal in this single-elimination contest. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 3.11 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP this season — and they have a 2.66 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP in their last seven games. Roberts has made a surprise decision this afternoon to use Corey Knebel as an opener before turning to Urias as his bulk pitcher. It is a crafty move to keep Giants’ manager Gabe Kapler from stacking his lineup with right-handed batters. Knebel is a good reliever — he has a 2.45 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP this season. Urias should then get the ball after holding the Giants to just one run in five innings on Saturday in Game Two of this series. The left-hander had a 20-6 record in the regular season with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 32 starts. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.71 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 regular season starts. Additionally, in his last 12 starts since the beginning of August, Urias has a 1.77 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. In his six starts against San Francisco this season, Urias has a 3.15 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. And in his carer 32 1/3 innings in the playoffs, Urias has a 3.06 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He should pitch well tonight. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .197 Batting Average, .251 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .574. San Francisco has not scored more than four runs in four straight games. They are hitting just .208 in their last five games — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a five-game stretch where they did not have a batting average over .225. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 15 games after an off day, they have played 11 of their games Under the Total. San Francisco’s bullpen has a 3.07 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP this season — and they have posted a 2.92 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP against NL West foes. They counter with Webb who has an 11-3 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in the regular season. He pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings with ten strikeouts in Game One of this series. When pitching at home at Oracle Park this season, he has a 1.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts) in the regular season. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has been shut out twice in this series — they really miss the injured Max Muncy. Both managers will suspect runs will be hard to come by tonight — and they will manage accordingly. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* MLB National League West Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (971) and the San Francisco Giants (972) listing both starting pitchers Corey Knebel and Logan Webb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-21 |
Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5 |
|
10-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 2:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (973) and the Chicago White Sox (974) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Houston (97-68) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 12-6 loss to the White Sox. Chicago (94-71) ended their three-game losing streak with the victory to win their first game in this best-of-five series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 18 of their last 27 games on the road Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Over is now 7-3-2 in Houston’s last 12 games on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. Additionally, the Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when the Total is in the 7-8.5 range. They have played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total in the NLDS. Furthermore, Houston has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total as an underdog overall — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. After yesterday’s rainout, manager Dusty Baker gets to bypass Jose Urquidy to go back to McCullers who did not allow an earned run in 6 2/3 innings in Game One of this series on Thursday. But Houston has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when McCullers is following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. The right-hander has a 13-5 record this season with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 28 starts — but he has been less effective in day games where he has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 11 starts. The sabermetrics don’t love McCullers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.01 and 3.69 moving forward. The Astros’ bullpen is a weakness, particularly with their middle relief. Houston was second in MLB with 97 bullpen meltdowns in the regular season. In their last seven games, the Astros’ pen has a 5.06 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP — so don’t give up on the Over this afternoon! The White Sox are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .289 Batting Average and a .348 On-Base Percentage. Chicago has played 15 of their last 24 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. They counter with Rodon who had a 13-5 record in the regular season with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 24 starts. Take his solid September numbers with a grain of salt — he has been dealing with arm soreness that lowered his velocity in those appearances. There is a reason that manager Tony LaRussa has not pitched earlier in this series (including their elimination game on Sunday). This could be hit-or-miss — and I suspect it is the latter for a pitcher whose 132 2/3 innings this season are the most he has thrown in a year since 2016 in the salad days of the Hillary versus Trump Presidential campaign. The lefty’s ERA rises to 3.40 in his eight starts in the day. And while the White Sox’s bullpen is supposed to be a strength on paper, that group has a 4.73 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in their last seven games. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total when an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Over the Total in potential close-out games. 25* MLB ALDS Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (973) and the Chicago White Sox (974) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-21 |
Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:37 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (957) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Alex Wood. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (108-57) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 9-2 victory on the road at Oracle Park. San Francisco (108-56) had won two in a row before the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The reigning World Series champions are on a roll with nine wins in their last ten games and 20 victories in their last 24 games. 17 of their last 20 wins have been by more than one run including their last seven victories. Los Angeles has won 51 of their last 73 games after a win — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 36 of their last 52 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They return home to Dodger Stadium where they have won 39 of their last 51 games — and they have won 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. They have also won 8 of their last 10 home games in the NLDS. Manager Dave Roberts gives the ball to Scherzer who had a 15-4 record with a 2.46 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in the regular season. The right-hander had a 7-0 record in 11 regular-season starts since being acquired by the Dodgers with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. Scherzer did not have his best stuff on the NL Wildcard Playoff game against St. Louis — but he only allowed one run in his 4 1/3 innings of work on Wednesday. Look for him to bounce back with a strong effort. His teams have won 21 of their 25 games this season when priced as a -110 or better favorite. His teams have also won all 10 of his starts against division rivals this season. He faces a suddenly cold Giants lineup that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .231 Batting Average, .292 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. San Francisco has lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Manager Gabe Kapler counters with Wood who has a 10-4 record with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 26 starts. He has done his best pitching at home where he has a 3.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 15 starts — but those numbers all rise to a 4.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in 11 starts on the road. In his last 11 starts after the All-Star Break, Wood has a 4.07 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. In his 17 innings over two starts against the Dodgers, he is 0-2 this season with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He also has a mediocre 4.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in his career 19 appearances in the postseason. The Giants have lost 6 of their last 8 games with Wood pitching as an underdog. He faces a red-hot Dodgers lineup that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .274 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .858. And against left-handed starting pitchers, Los Angeles scores 5.3 Runs-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles led MLB with a +269 run differential this season. They have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 43 of their 53 victories this season when priced at -200 or higher — and this includes them covering the -1.5 Run-Line in eight straight and 11 of these last 13 circumstances. San Francisco has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their 7 losses this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. The Giants have also failed to cover the point +1.5 Run-Line in 11 of their 16 games this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +115 or higher. 10* MLB Monday Late Show Run-Line Bailout with the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (957) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Alex Wood. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-21 |
Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (955) and the Boston Red Sox (956) listing both starting pitchers Collin McHugh and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (101-64) has lost three of their last four games after their 6-4 loss at Fenway Park last night in 13 innings. Boston (95-71) has won six of their last seven games to take a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both bullpens were taxed last night — so there will be mostly tired pitchers taking the mound tonight. The Rays used eight relievers last night after Drew Rasmussen pitched only two innings making the start. Manager Kevin Cash will use Collin McHugh as his opener to pitch probably not more than two innings if he can last that long. The right-hander has a 6-1 record with a 1.55 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 37 limited appearances which include seven opening assignments like this. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.87 and 3.06 moving forward. McHugh has pitched 20 1/3 innings in the postseason but has been saddled with a 4.87 ERA. Luis Patino will likely follow him up since he did not pitch last night. He has a 5-3 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in mixed work in the pen and some spot starts. The right-hander has a 5.77 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 34 1/3 innings on the road — and he has a 5.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in nine games. In four innings of previous playoff experience, he has a 6.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. They face a Red Sox team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .298 Batting Average, .370 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .893. Boston scores 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .280 Batting Average, .345 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .826. The Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has played 30 of their last 48 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. The Rays have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the playoffs as a money-line underdog. The Over is also 7-2-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 8 road games in the ALDS. The Over is 7-3-1 in Boston’s last 11 games after a win — and the Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Red Sox used six relievers last night to pitch 8 innings after the bullpen was called on to pitch 8 and 6 1/3 innings in the first two games in this series. Boston has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after their bullpen pitched at least four innings in three straight games. Additionally, the Over is 15-5-1 in the Red Sox’s last 21 games at home — and the Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. The Over is also 20-8-4 in their last 32 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Rodriguez who was knocked out in just 1 2/3 innings where he gave up two runs in Game One of this series on Thursday. The left-hander has a 5.25 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 22 1/3 innings against the Rays this season. He also now has a 14.85 ERA and a 2.40 WHIP in nine games including two starts in the postseason. He is pitching on three days rest at home at Fenway Park where he has a 5.95 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP with opposing hitters posting a .282 batting average in 13 starts this year. Boston has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Tampa Bay scores 5.6 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 26-11-2 in the last 39 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 games when these two teams are playing at Fenway Park. Lastly, the Rays have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (955) and the Boston Red Sox (956) listing both starting pitchers Collin McHugh and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-21 |
Brewers v. Braves OVER 8 |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-101 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 1:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Atlanta Braves (952) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (96-68) has lost five of their last six games after their 3-0 loss at home to the Braves on Saturday. Atlanta (89-74) has won three of their last four games after evening this NLDS at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after being shut out in their last game. Milwaukee has not scored more than three runs in four straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not scoring more than three runs in at least four straight games. And while the Brewers have not allowed more than three runs in the first two games in this season, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off day — and they have played 5 of their last 6 third games of a series Over the Total. Furthermore, the Brewers have played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the Total in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Peralta who has a 10-5 record with a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season. In his last eight starts since the beginning of August, the right-hander has been saddled with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He has not pitched since September 26th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when Peralta is pitching with at least seven days between starts. Milwaukee has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Peralta pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a Braves team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game at home. Atlanta lost the opening game of this series — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than three runs were scored by both teams. The Braves have only allowed two runs in their last three games — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in three straight games. Additionally, Atlanta has played 13 of their last 16 home games Over the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. And while the Braves are only hitting .220 in their last five games (159 at-bats, 35 hits), they have then played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after not hitting better than .225 in their last five games. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games in the NLDS. They counter with Anderson who has a 9-5 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 24 starts. In his seven starts in day games, Anderson’s ERA and WHIP rise to 3.86 and 1.49 marks. In his five starts last month, he had a 4.39 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He faces a Brewers squad that scores 4.8 Runs-Per-Game on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* MLB Monday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Atlanta Braves (952) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-21 |
Astros v. White Sox -117 |
Top |
6-12 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (934) versus the Houston Astros (933) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Luis Garcia. THE SITUATION: Chicago (93-71) has lost three games in a row after their 9-4 loss in Houston against the Astros on Friday. Houston (97-67) has won four games in a row after taking a 2-0 lead in this best-of-five series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 12 of their last 17 games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have also won 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day. They return home where they have a 53-28 record this season at Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. They have also won 12 of their last 16 home games when priced in the +/- 125 range. Furthermore, the White Sox have won 6 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have won 7 of their last 9 playoff games when favored. Manager Tony LaRussa taps Cease as his starting pitcher. The right-hander had a 13-7 record in the regular season with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 32 starts. The right-hander was more effective at home where he owned a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 16 starts as compared to his 4.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241. Chicago has won 16 of their last 24 games with Cease pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. Houston has lost 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs in potential close-out situations. The Astros have lost 4 straight games on the road — and they have lost 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And in their last 53 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range, they have lost 33 of these contests. Manager Dusty Baker counters with Garcia who has an 11-8 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 30 appearances (28 starts). The right-hander does his best pitching at home in Minute Maid Park where he owns a 2.39 ERA,1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 — but those numbers rise to a 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in 15 starts. The Astros have lost 6 of their last 8 games with Garcia pitching on the road priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a White Sox team that scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 games in Chicago against the White Sox — and the White Sox have won 22 of their last 32 home games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* MLB Divisional Series Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (934) versus the Houston Astros (933) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Luis Garcia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-21 |
Rays v. Red Sox -117 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (932) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (931) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Drew Rasmussen. THE SITUATION: Boston (94-71) evened this best-of-five series at 1-1 with their 14-6 victory on the road on Friday. Tampa Bay (101-63) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 9 of their last 12 games after a win — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 10 games — and they have won 36 of their last 52 home games when favored. The Red Sox have also won 4 straight playoff games at home — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games in the postseason under manager Alex Cora. He gives the ball to Eovaldi who has an 11-9 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home in Fenway Park where he owns a 3.47 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in 19 starts. Boston has won 7 of their last 9 home games with Eovaldi pitching when listed in the +/- 125 range. Eovaldi owns a 2.39 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP in four starts against the Rays this season. Tampa Bay has lost 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. They counter with Rasmussen who has a 4-1 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 76 innings this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 3.67 mark moving forward. The right-hander started the season with Milwaukee before being traded to the Rays — and this will be his first appearance in a playoff game. In day games this season, Rasmussen has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: I am skeptical of Rasmussen making his postseason debut at Fenway Park against the offensive juggernaut that is this Boston team. The Red Sox score 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .280 Batting Average, .361 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .859. 10* MLB Tampa Bay-Boston MLB Network Special with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (932) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (931) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Drew Rasmussen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-21 |
Dodgers -107 v. Giants |
Top |
9-2 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (927) versus the San Francisco Giants (928) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Kevin Gausman. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (107-57) looks to rebound from losing the opening game of this best-of-five series last night by a 4-0 score. San Francisco (108-55) has won nine of their last ten games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles entered the postseason on an eight-game winning streak — and they have still won 42 of their last 54 games. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by four or more runs. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to a divisional rival where they did not score more than one run. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11 games after getting shutout in their last game including winning four of their five games after getting shutout this season. Los Angeles has won 49 of their last 67 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have not allowed more than four runs in four straight games, they have then won 28 of their last 26 games after not allowing more than four runs in four straight games. The Dodgers have still won 19 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 8 of their last 11 games in the playoffs. Manager Dave Roberts gives the ball to Urias who has a 20-3 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 32 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.71 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 18 starts as compared to his 3.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home. The Dodgers have won 15 of their last 17 road games with Urias pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. In his last 11 starts since the start of August, Urias has a 1.77 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He also has plenty of postseason experience with 16 appearances in the playoffs with two starts in 27 1/3 innings. He has a 6-2 record in the postseason with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. San Francisco has lost 4 of their last 6 games after an upset victory as a home underdog against NL West opponent. The Giants counter with Gausman who has a 14-6 record with a 2.81 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 33 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.44 ERA in 14 starts as opposed to his 2.33 ERA on the road. Gausman has not been the same pitching since the All-Star Break where he has a 4.42 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in his last 15 starts. San Francisco has lost 10 of these last 15 starts with Gausman on the mound. His teams have also lost 11 of their last 17 games with Gausman the starting pitcher in games where his team is the money-line underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 12 games when avenging a shutout loss against their opponent including four of five of these situations this season. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (927) versus the San Francisco Giants (928) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Kevin Gausman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-21 |
Braves v. Brewers UNDER 7 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (919) and the Milwaukee Bucks (920) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Corbin Burnes. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (88-73) has won eight of their last nine games in the regular season after a 5-0 win against the New York Mets on Sunday. Milwaukee (95-67) has lost four in a row after their 10-3 loss at Los Angeles against the Dodgers to close the regular season on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta goes on the road where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Braves have also played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Morton who has a 14-6 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 33 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.06 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in 15 starts as opposed to his 3.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 at home. Atlanta has played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Morton pitching with the Total set at 7 or lower. In his last ten starts since the beginning of August, Morton has a 2.71 ERA and an 0.88 WHIP. He faces a Brewers team scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .237 Batting Average, .296 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .667. Milwaukee’s bullpen was rocked for five earned runs on Sunday — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when their bullpen allowed five or more runs in their last game. The Brewers have allowed eight runs in two straight games — but they have played 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after allowing at least eight runs in two straight games. Milwaukee has played three straight Overs — and they have 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing three straight Overs. They counter with Burnes who has an 11-5 record with a 2.43 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 28 starts. The right-hander is outstanding in day games where he has a 1.53 ERA in ten starts. In his last ten starts, Burnes has a 2.36 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 8 games with Burnes pitching with the Total set at 7. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta is scoring only .238 with a .309 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .736.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 4 straight Unders in the playoffs — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the NLDS when playing at home. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road Under the Total. 10* MLB Friday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (919) and the Milwaukee Bucks (920) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Corbin Burnes. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-21 |
White Sox v. Astros -130 |
|
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (912) versus the Chicago White Sox (911) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Houston (95-67) won three of their last four games to close out the regular season with a 7-6 victory against Oakland on Sunday. Chicago (93-69) has their six-game winning streak snapped with a 5-2 loss to Detroit on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 39 of their last 58 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also won 55 of their last 73 games after an off-day. Houston hosts this series where they had a 51-30 win at Minute Maid Park. The Astros have won 39 of their last 58 home games when favored — and they have won 36 of their last 53 home games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games in the ALDS — and they have reached the American League Championship Series in four straight seasons. Manager Dusty Baker taps McCullers to start Game One. The right-hander had a 13-5 record in the regular season with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 28 starts. He comes into the postseason pitching well with a 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in five starts. In two starts against the White Sox in the regular season, McCullers has a 2-0 record with a 2.08 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .103. And in 44 2/3 innings in the postseason, he has a 3.43 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182. Chicago was below .500 with a 40-41 record on the road this season. They have lost 25 of their last 35 road games when an underdog priced up to +150 — and this includes them losing 16 of those 23 circumstances this season. The White Sox have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road in the playoffs. They counter with Lynn who has an 11-6 record with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 28 starts. The right-hander has a 4.10 ERA in his last nine starts since the beginning of August. He got hit hard by allowing six runs in four innings in his lone start against the Astros this season. Lynn has a sketchy record in the playoffs — he has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings. He faces a Houston team that led MLB in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and strikeout rate. Don’t underestimate that last metric since the Astros success at making contact makes a big difference in the postseason. Houston scores 5.3 Runs-Per-Game at home.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox may be without Jose Abreu who has been battling flu-like symptoms the last few days. If he plays, he does not appear to be 100%. Chicago has lost 15 of their last 21 games against the Astros including 4 straight losses at Houston. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (912) versus the Chicago White Sox (911) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-21 |
Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (939) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (940) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (90-72) lost their final two games of the regular season with a 3-2 setback against the Chicago Cubs. Los Angeles (106-56) enters the playoffs having won seven straight games after beating Milwaukee by a 10-3 score on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning at least seven games in a row. Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts gives the ball to their new ace in Scherzer who has a 15-4 record with a 2.46 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. The right-hander has a 7-0 record in 11 starts since being acquired by the Dodgers with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. Scherzer has allowed five earned runs in two straight starts — but those two outings came after five straight starts where he did not allow an earned run. Scherzer is a wily veteran with a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 112 innings in the postseason. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 3.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season. His teams have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when he is facing a team from NL Central. His teams have also played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with him starting with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .230 Batting Average, .302 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .729. St. Louis has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by one run. And while the Cardinals got upset twice in a row last week at home against the Cubs, they have then played 4 straight Unders after getting upset two in a row at home against a divisional rival. They counter with Wainwright who has a 17-7 record with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. He faces a Dodgers’ lineup without their cleanup hitter, Max Muncy, who is out with an elbow injury.
FINAL TAKE: Two final factors compel me to take the Under tonight. First, with this being a single-elimination game, every pitcher will be available to pitch out of the bullpen. Second, with this game being played as the sun sets in Los Angeles, there will be shadows that will impact the sightline of the hitters. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (939) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (940) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-21 |
Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (940) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (939) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (106-56) enters the playoffs having won seven straight games after beating Milwaukee by a 10-3 score on Sunday. St. Louis (90-72) lost their final two games of the regular season with a 3-2 setback against the Chicago Cubs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: It may appear dangerous to spot a Cardinals team +1.5 runs after they won 17-straight games in a row last month — but hot streaks in September do not correlate with playoff success. There has never been a team that won 12 or more games in a row in the regular season after August 31st who then reached the World Series. Besides, while St. Louis finished the season on a 22-7 run since the start of September, Los Angeles also won at a .700+ clip over that span with a 23-9 mark. The Cardinals have lost 6 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 playoff games on the road. They send out Wainwright who has a 17-7 record with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.13 and 3.87 moving forward. The right-hander was more effective at home where he owned a 2.74 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 19 starts — but his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.14 marks in his 13 starts on the road. In his last four starts, Wainwright has a 3.68 ERA. He last pitched last Tuesday against the Brewers — and the Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 6 games with Wainwright pitching with seven or more days of rest. St. Louis has lost 10 of their last 15 games with Wainwright pitching in the playoffs. He faces a red-hot Dodgers lineup that has scored at least eight runs in five straight games. Los Angeles has won 12 of their last 17 games after scoring at least six runs in five straight games — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. The Dodgers are scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .285 Batting Average, .368 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .987. Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 53 home games when favored. Additionally, the Dodgers have won 38 of their last 47 games this season when priced at -200 or higher — and they have won 83 of their last 103 games going back to last season when priced at -200 or higher. They counter with Scherzer who has a 15-4 record with a 2.46 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. The right-hander has a 7-0 record in 11 starts since being acquired by the Dodgers with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. His teams have won 20 of their 24 games this season when priced as a -110 or better favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles led MLB with a +269 run differential this season. They have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 42 of their 52 victories this season when priced at -200 or higher — and this includes them covering the -1.5 Run-Line in seven straight and eleven of these last twelve circumstances. St. Louis has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 11 of their 16 losses this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (940) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (939) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-21 |
Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (938) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (937) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Boston (92-70) also clinched a playoff spot on Sunday with their 7-5 victory at Washington. New York (92-70) clinched a wildcard spot on Sunday with their 1-0 win against Tampa Bay.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston has won 8 of their last 10 games after a victory — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Boston earned the right to host this single-elimination playoff game by winning the regular-season series with the Yankees, 10-9. The Red Sox have a 49-32 record at home in Fenway Park this season — and they have won 10 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Yankees have won the last six meetings between these two teams after sweeping the Red Sox in Boston on the last weekend in September — but Boston has won 6 of their last 9 games when motivated with double-revenge after losing two straight games at home against their opponent. They give the ball to Eovaldi who has an 11-9 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in 19 starts as opposed to his 4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 on the road. Eovaldi has only allowed more than three earned runs once in his last ten starts — but that was against the Bronx Bombers on September 24th so he will have some extra to prove in this game. The Red Sox have won 6 of their last 8 home games with Eovaldi pitching when priced in the +/- 125 range. New York is only scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .222 Batting Average, .272 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .668. The Yankees have only scored three combined runs in their last two games — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than two runs in two straight games. This is New York’s tenth straight game against an AL East opponent — and they have lost 14 of their last 20 games after playing at least six in a row to divisional opponents. They give the ball to Cole who looks to rebound from a subpar effort where he allows five runs in six innings at Toronto last Wednesday. For the season, the right-hander has a 16-8 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP — but he has been saddled with a 5.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in five starts. This continues a disturbing trend for the Yankees’ ace who, after a great start to the season, has a 4.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 since the All-Star Break. Has his 181 1/3 innings this season after a pandemic-shortened campaign last year produced fatigue late in the season? Are the after-effects from his bout with COVID impacting his performances? Has his recent hamstring injury held him back? Perhaps the league’s crackdown on foreign substances has thrown off his elite stuff despite his spin rates creeping back up to his early-season levels? I don’t know, but I am skeptical he can simply flip the switch in the playoffs after posting a 7.64 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his last three starts despite the Yankees playing for their playoff lives the last few weeks. Against the Red Sox in four starts this year, Cole has a 4.91 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279. He faces a Boston team that scores 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home in Fenway Park with a .280 Batting Average, .344 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .824.
FINAL TAKE: Four of the Red Sox’s last ten losses have been by just one run — and eight of the Yankees’ last 19 victories have been by just one run. I lean to Boston to win this game at home after New York swept them a week and a half ago — but with the Run-Line price within my -150 price threshold, my preferred bet is to invest in the +1.5 Run-Line for some insurance. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Boston Red Sox (938) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (937) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-21 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 |
Top |
2-6 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (937) and the Boston Red Sox (938) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: New York (92-70) clinched a wildcard spot on Sunday with their 1-0 win against Tampa Bay. Boston (92-70) also clinched a playoff spot on Sunday with their 7-5 victory at Washington.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 10-4-1 in the Yankees’ last 15 games after an off-day. They go on the road where they have play 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total on the road. They give the ball to Cole who looks to rebound from a subpar effort where he allows five runs in six innings at Toronto last Wednesday. For the season, the right-hander has a 16-8 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP — but he has been saddled with a 5.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in five starts. This continues a disturbing trend for the Yankees’ ace who, after a great start to the season, has a 4.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 since the All-Star Break. Has his 181 1/3 innings this season after a pandemic-shortened campaign last year produced fatigue late in the season? Are the after-effects from his bout with COVID impacting his performances? Has his recent hamstring injury held him back? Perhaps the league’s crackdown on foreign substances has thrown off his elite stuff despite his spin rates creeping back up to his early-season levels? I don’t know, but I am skeptical he can simply flip the switch in the playoffs after posting a 7.64 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his last three starts despite the Yankees playing for their playoff lives the last few weeks. Against the Red Sox in four starts this year, Cole has a 4.91 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Cole pitching when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. He faces a Boston team that scores 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home in Fenway Park with a .280 Batting Average, .344 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .824. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Red Sox’s last 8 games after a win — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Boston hosts this game in Fenway Park where the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games — and the Over is 18-8-4 in their last 32 playoff games at home. They counter with Eovaldi who has an 11-9 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts this season. The right-hander got crushed at home against the Yankees two starts ago on September 24th when he allowed seven runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work. The Boston bullpen is not great — they have a 4.00 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP this season. The Red Sox have played 12 of their last 19 games at home Over the Total with Eovaldi on the mound — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with Eovaldi pitching with the Total set at 8-8.5.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have played 4 straight appearances in the Wild Card playoff game Over the Total. Expect a wild one between these bitter rivals. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (937) and the Boston Red Sox (938) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-21 |
Angels v. Mariners -1.5 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (971) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Reid Detmers. THE SITUATION: Seattle (90-71) has won eleven of their last thirteen games after their 6-4 victory against the Angels in the second game of this series. Los Angeles (76-85) has lost eleven of their last fifteen games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle needs this win — and then either a Red Sox or Yankees loss — to force a play-in game tomorrow to determine the wild card recipients in the American League. Nine of their wins were by more than two runs — and one of their one-run victories was when they were priced as an underdog. The Mariners are playing inspired baseball right now. They have won 8 of their last 10 games after a victory — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games when favored. Furthermore, the Mariners have won 10 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Anderson takes the ball with his 7-10 record with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 30 starts. This will be a special start for the left-hander who will have something to prove against this Angels team after they rocked him for nine runs in just two innings back on September 25th. Anderson pitched two days later after that short stint and only allowed one run in four innings while throwing 40 of his 45 pitches for strikes. Now he gets his revenge against the Angels at home where he has been more effective with a 3.11 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 13 starts as opposed to his 5.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .268 on the road. Anderson also has a 3.61 ERA in his 10 starts in day games. He faces an Angels team that scores only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in the day — and they score just 4.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Seattle has won 6 of their last 7 games with Anderson pitching in expected lower-scoring games with the Total at 7 or 7.5. The Angels are just playing out the string in a lost season. They have lost 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 15 of their last 20 games against AL West rivals. Manager Joe Maddon had the team call up Detmers from Triple-A to give an audition tryout before the offseason. The left-hander has struggled with a 1-3 record in the majors this season with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in 19 innings. He has nine walks during that span — and his ERA and WHIP rise to 7.11 and 2.19 marks on the road with opposing hitters batting .350 against him. The Mariners have won 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has only been a money-line favorite priced higher than -150 4 times all season — and they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 3 of those circumstances. The Angels have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 17 of their 19 losses priced at +145 or higher including failing to cover the Run-Line in these last 10 situations. 20* MLB Run-Line Rout with the Seattle Mariners (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (971) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Reid Detmers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-21 |
Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (923) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Matt Manning. THE SITUATION: Chicago (92-68) has won five games in a row after their 8-1 win against the Tigers in the opening game of this final weekend series of the regular season. Detroit (76-84) has lost five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago has clinched the American League Central title — but they are playing with a sense of urgency with home-field advantage still at stake in their upcoming ALDS showdown with the Houston Astros next week. The White Sox are one game behind the Astros — so a loss clinches the home-field edge for the Astros. Chicago has won 41 of their last 57 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. The White Sox have also won a decisive 62 of their last 89 home games when favored. And while Chicago has given up only one run in three straight games — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games after not giving up more than one run in at least two in a row. Manager Tony LaRussa gives the ball to Giolito who has an 11-9 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in eight straight starts going back to August 9th. Since the All-Star Break, Giolito has a 2.71 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 12 starts — and he had a 2.35 ERA in his three starts in September. He did not give up an earned run in his last start at Cleveland on September 26th — and Chicago has won 7 of their last 10 games when Giolito is following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces a Tigers team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has lost 15 of their last 21 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they did not score more than one run. And while the Tigers lost by an 8-7 score in their previous meeting with the White Sox on September 27th, they have lost 49 of their last 62 games when playing with double-revenge from losses where they allowed at least eight runs in both contests. Detroit has also lost 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They counter with Manning who has a 4-7 record with a 6.16 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 17 starts. The rookie right-hander is fading down the stretch with an 8.41 ERA and 1.71 WHI in five starts last month. Manning is also saddled with a 7.67 ERA in his seven starts on the road. The Tigers have lost 5 of their last 7 games with Manning pitching on the road as an underdog. Chicago has won 5 in a row against right-handed starting pitchers. The White Sox have also won 20 of their last 26 opportunities to host Detroit.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 35 of their 43 victories this season when priced at -155 or higher — and this includes them covering the -1.5 Run-Line in nineteen of these last twenty-three circumstances. The Tigers have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 32 of their 39 losses this year priced at +145 or higher — and this includes them failing to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in eighteen of these last twenty-two situations. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Chicago White Sox (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (923) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Matt Manning. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-21 |
Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (973) and the Chicago White Sox (974) listing both starting pitchers Wily Peralta and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Detroit (76-83) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 10-7 win at Minnesota yesterday. Chicago (91-68) has won four in a row with their 6-1 win against Cincinnati on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 18-7-2 in the Tigers’ last 27 games after a win — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Detroit stays out the road to close out their season where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 road games as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced at +200 or higher. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager A.J. Hinch gives the ball to Peralta who has a 4-4 record with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 18 games (17 starts) this season. The right-hander will be motivated to close out a strong second half of the season. He had a 1.75 ERA in his five starts last month — and has not allowed more than two earned runs in six straight starts. His teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight games. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 11 games (10) starts as opposed to his 1.41 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average when pitchman at home. He faces a White Sox team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox stay at home where they have played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total when favored at a -150 price or higher — and they have played 13 of their last 20 home games Under the Total when favored at a -200 price or higher. Furthermore, Chicago has played 4 straight Unders with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Lynn who has a 10-6 record with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 27 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in 16 starts. Chicago has played 11 of their 14 home games Under the Total with Lynn making the start this season. He will want to stay in the groove to build momentum for the playoffs next week. He faces a Tigers team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 20-8-3 in their last 31 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against American League Central rivals — and the White Sox have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at Guaranteed Rate Field. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (973) and the Chicago White Sox (974) listing both starting pitchers Wily Peralta and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-21 |
Yankees v. Blue Jays -140 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-140 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Robbie Ray and Corey Kluber. THE SITUATION: Toronto (88-70) has won three of their last four games after their 6-5 win against the Yankees in the second game of their series last night. New York (90-68) had their seven-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto has won 22 of their last 31 games as they make a furious push to take a wildcard spot in the American League playoffs. The Blue Jays are two games behind the Yankees, one game behind the Boston Red Sox, and a half-game behind the Seattle Mariners for the two spots entering the day. Toronto’s gotta have it — but they send out their ace in Ray (more on that below). The Blue Jays have won 10 of their last 15 games after a win by just one run. Toronto has also won 12 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Blue Jays have now won 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Ray has a 13-6 record with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 31 starts. The lefty has a 2.28 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in 16 starts at home. Ray has made his case for the American League Cy Young Award with his 2.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 since the All-Star Break. Toronto has won 8 of their last 10 games with Ray pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. New York has lost 12 of their last 18 games on the road after a loss by two runs or less. Furthermore, the Yankees have lost 13 of their last 18 road games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have lost 15 of their last 23 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They counter with Kluber who has a 5-3 record with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 15 starts. In his five starts since his return from the disabled list, he has a 5.72 ERA. In his five starts on the road, he has a 5.00 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .250 as compared to his 2.75 ERA and .231 batting average in eight starts at home. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.29 respectively. The Yankees have lost 9 of their last 13 games with Kluber pitching as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Blue Jays.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have won 9 of their last 12 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays have also won 7 of their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Robbie Ray and Corey Kluber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-21 |
Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
9-11 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (963) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (101-56) has won four of their last five games — and seven of their last nine — after their 2-1 victory against the Padres in the opening game of this series. San Diego (78-79) has lost four in a row and nine of their last ten games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 37 of their last 53 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Dodgers have only allowed one run in their last two games — and they have won 4 straight games after not allowing more than one run in two straight games. LA is still in a dog fight with San Francisco for first place in the NL West and the top seed in the National League playoffs — so they need to win this game trailing the Giants by two games. The Dodgers have won 40 of their last 53 games at home against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Scherzer who has a 15-4 record with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in 29 starts this season. The right-hander will likely have a chip on his shoulder tonight after allowing five runs in five innings of work in a start on the road at Colorado. Scherzer had not allowed an earned run in five straight starts before that outing. In his last ten starts, Scherzer has a 1.43 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. Scherzer started the season with Washington before the Dodgers picked him up at the trade deadline — and his teams have won 19 of their 23 games this season when he is pitching in games when they are a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. The Padres have lost 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. San Diego's descent in the second half of the season now has them below .500 despite entering the year as the expected main rival to LA to win the National League title. The Padres have lost 21 of their last 29 games after a loss — and they have lost 16 of their last 25 games after a loss by just one run. San Diego has also lost 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Padres have lost 20 of their last 27 games on the road — and they have lost 21 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Weathers who has a 4-7 record with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP this season. The left-hander has an 8.73 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .346 since the All-Star Break. San Diego has lost 8 of their last 9 games with Weathers the starting pitcher in the second half of the season. Los Angeles has won 36 of their last 52 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 60 of their 82 victories this season when priced at -155 or higher — and they have covered the 1.5 Run-Line in nine of these last eleven situations. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Run-Line Bailout with Los Angeles Dodgers (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (963) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-21 |
Phillies v. Braves -137 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (957) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (84-72) has won four straight and eight of their last nine games after their 2-1 victory in the opening game of their series with the Phillies last night. Philadelphia (81-76) has lost two in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has won 6 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Braves have won 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 24 of their last 33 games against NL East opponents. They give the ball to Fried who has a 13-7 record with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 27 starts. The left-hander has been a bit more effective at home where he owns a 3.09 ERA and a .224 opponent's batting average in 13 starts as compared to his 3.14 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .235 on the road. Fried has been spectacular in the second half of the season. In his last ten starts since the beginning of August, Fried has a 1.48 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 67 innings. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 16 games with Fried pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. He faces a Phillies team that has lost 4 straight road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 27 of their last 40 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 15 of their last 22 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The Phillies have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 4 straight road games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Nola who has a 9-8 record with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 31 starts. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 3.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 — but those rise to a 5.32 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in 17 starts on the road. Nola has struggled in his five starts this month with a 6.58 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .260. The Phillies have lost 21 of their last 32 games in September with Nola making the start.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has lost 8 of their last 11 games played at Truist Park in Atlanta. The Phillies trail the Braves in the NL East title race by 3 1/2 games with just five to play — so a loss tonight all-but eliminates them from the playoff race. The writing has been on the wall for Philly for a while now. 25* MLB National League East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (957) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-21 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (913) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Luke Weaver. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (102-54) has won three straight games — and five of their last six contests — after their 6-2 win at Colorado on Sunday. Arizona (50-106) has lost six of their last eight games after their 3-0 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco had a 2-1 lead after five innings on Sunday before their bullpen allowed the tying run in the bottom of the seventh. The Giants won the game with four runs in the top of the ninth inning. San Francisco has won 18 of their last 24 games after blowing a save in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have won 43 of their last 61 games after a win — and they have won 44 of their last 58 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. San Francisco has also won 20 of their last 27 games after an off day. The Giants are two games ahead in the NL West — but they have plenty to play for still since finishing in second place in the division relegates them to single-elimination wild-card playoff games. San Francisco won the first two games of their series with the Rockies by 7-2 scores. They have won 15 of their last 19 games after winning two games in a row by at least four runs — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after winning three games in a row by at least four runs. They give the ball to Webb who has a 10-3 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 25 games (24 starts). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in 11 games (10 starts). The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging for Webb with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.10 and 2.85 respectively. The Giants have won all 10 games Webb has started at home this year. He faces a cold-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .225 Batting Average, .290 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .665. Arizona has lost 42 of their last 53 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of their last 14 games after getting shut out in their last game. Furthermore, they have lost 26 of their last 28 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game -- and they have lost 25 of their last 29 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have lost 50 of their last 61 games on the road. They counter with Weaver who has a 3-6 record with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 12 starts. While the right-hander has a 2.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188, those numbers skyrocket to a 7.94 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .299 in his five starts on the road. Arizona has lost 7 of their last 10 road games with Weaver pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Weaver also has a 5.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in seven starts at night. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. San Francisco has won 40 of their last 53 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 23 of their 32 victories when priced at -155 or higher this season — and they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 19 of these last 24 situations. Arizona has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 47 of their 62 losses when priced at +145 or higher including 25 of these last 30 circumstances. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the San Francisco Giants (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (913) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Luke Weaver. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-21 |
Yankees v. Red Sox +108 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (920) versus the New York Yankees (919) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Boston (88-65) has won seven games in a row with their 12-5 victory against the New York Mets on Wednesday. New York (86-67) has won three straight games after their 7-3 victory against on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: These American League East rivals are in a heated battle for the wild card spots for the playoffs — and Boston has the upper hand with a two-game lead over the Yankees along with a three-game lead over Toronto and a four-game over Seattle who is sticking around in the final ten days of the season. The Red Sox are rolling right now — and they have won 36 of their last 56 games after winning at least two in a row. Boston has also won 6 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 12 runs n their last contest. The Red Sox have also won 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. Boston stays at home at Fenway Park where they have won 36 of their last 52 games — and they have won 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Eovaldi gets the ball with his 10-8 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in 18 starts. Boston has won 6 of their 8 games at home this season with Eovaldi pitching when priced in the +/- 125 range. Eovaldi has thrived over his last seven starts where he has not allowed more than three runs — he has a 2.27 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in those seven starts since August 11th. He will be supposed by a bullpen that has a 1.99 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in their last seven games. He faces a Yankees team that does not hit right-handed pitching as well as lefties. They are scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .232 Batting Average, .312 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .711. New York has lost 12 of their last 17 games against right-handed staring pitchers — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Now after playing their last six games at home in Yankee Stadium, they go back on the road where they have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set from 9-10.5. New has lost 6 games in a row to teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games against fellow AL East foes. The Yankees are the favorite because they have Gerrit Cole on the mound — he has a 15-8 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has taken a step back in his four starts this month with a 4.64 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277. Workload may be an issue — Cole has pitched 169 1/3 innings this year after the shortened season last year limited him to 73 innings. He faces a hot-hitting Red Sox team that is scoring 8.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .310 Batting Average, .378 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .947. Boston scores 5.9 Runs-Per-Game at home at Fenway Park with a .281 Batting Average, .346 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .831.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has only been an underdog at home 8 times this season — and they have pulled the upset 5 times. The Yankees have lost 7 of their last 8 games played at Fenway Park. 25* MLB American League East Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (920) versus the New York Yankees (919) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-21 |
Mets v. Red Sox -1.5 |
Top |
5-12 |
Win
|
111 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (928) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (927) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Taijuan Walker. THE SITUATION: Boston (87-65) has won six in a row after winning the opening game of this two-game series last night by a 6-3 score. New York (73-78) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston has won 5 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Everything has become crucial for the Red Sox with them currently holding the first wild card spot in the American League playoff race — but they are just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Blue Jays and 2 games up on the Yankees with a weekend series with New York looming. Boston has won 36 of their last 52 games at home when the money-line favorite — and they have won 5 straight games with the Total set at 9-10.5. Additionally, the Red Sox have won 23 of their last 32 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 12 of their last 16 games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Sale who has a 4-0 record with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in six starts after spending most of the year on the disabled list. Sale has five starts at home in Fenway Park where he owns a 2.25 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He has also sports a 2.11 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in four starts at night under the lights. He will be supported by a red hot bullpen that has a 1.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in their last seven games. He faces a cold Mets’ lineup that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .229 Batting Average, .291 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .650. New York struggles against left-handed pitching — they score just 3.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .236 Batting Average, .299 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .664 against left-handed pitchers. The Mets have lost 39 of their last 55 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York is playing out the string out of the playoff hunt. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 10 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record. New York has lost 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set from 9-10.5 — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 road games in Interleague play. They counter with Walker who has a 7-10 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 28 (27 starts). The right-hander has done his best pitching at home in Citi Field where he has a 3.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 — but he is saddled with a 5.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in 13 starts on the road. Walker has lost steam this month — he has a 7.63 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in three September starts. He faces a hot-hitting Red Sox lineup that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .286 Batting Average, .352 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .882. Boston scores 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home in Fenway with a .280 Batting Average, .345 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .826. They have won 18 of their last 26 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 22 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. The Red Sox have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their 22 victories this season when priced at -155 or higher — and they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 12 of these last 14 circumstances. Boston has also covered the -1.5 Run-Line in all 4 of Sale’s starts at home this season when priced at -150 or higher. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Year with the Boston Red Sox (928) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (927) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Taijuan Walker. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-21 |
Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11 |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Colorado Rockies (958) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Antonio Senzatela. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (96-54) has won two in a row and eight of their last nine after their 8-5 win at Cincinnati on Sunday. Colorado (70-79) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 3-0 loss at Washington.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than three combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Under is 19-8-1 in Colorado’s last 28 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in their last contest. They return home after playing their last nine games on the road. The Rockies have played 21 of their last 31 home games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a money-line underdog. The Under is also a decisive 37-18-3 in their last 58 home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. Colorado sends out Senzatela who has a 4-9 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 25 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding as of late with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in this last six starts including seven shutout innings in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on August 29th. Senzatela thrives at home with his ground ball rate of 51.8% — keeping the ball out of the thin high-altitude air in Denver. He has a 3.89 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP at home in 13 starts as compared to his 4.27 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 12 starts on the road. The Rockies have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Senzatela pitching with the Total set at 11-11.5. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 34-16-6 in Los Angeles’ last 56 games after a win. Furthermore, the Dodgers have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders after allowing five or more runs in their last game. LA has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an off day. They stay on the road where the Under is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 11 or higher. They counter with Urias who is 18-3 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 29 starts. The lefty has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in 16 starts. Since the All-Star Break, Urias has a sparkling 1.89 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts. He faces a slumping Rockies’ offense that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 Batting Average, .303 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .709. Colorado has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers will be looking to avenge a 5-0 upset loss at home to the Rockies on August 29th — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss including playing 3 of 4 Unders those circumstances this season. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Colorado Rockies (958) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Antonio Senzatela. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-21 |
Phillies v. Mets OVER 8 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
5 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (963) and the New York Mets (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (76-72) has won three straight games after their 4-3 victory in the opening game of this series last night. New York (72-77) has lost five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 9-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 10 games after a win — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after winning at least three games in a row. Furthermore, the Phillies have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 15-6-1 in their last 21 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Gibson who is 10-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP between his work with the Rangers and the Phillies. His ERA is 4.85 since he was traded to Philadelphia which is not a surprise since he is a ground ball pitcher playing in front of an inferior defensive team now with the Phillies. The deeper sabermetrics have been screaming for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projection an ERA of 4.54 and 4.25. Since the All-Star Break, Gibson has a 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP — and he has been saddled with a 0-2 record with a 9.00 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in three starts. The right-hander has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 15 starts. His teams have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when he is pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Mets team that has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Hill who has a 6-7 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP this season between pitchman for Tampa Bay and now the Mets. He has been less effective at home where his ERA rises to a 4.30 mark. In his last six starts at home, Hill has a 5.79 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. The sabermetrics also call for regression with Hill given his 4.43 SIERA and 4.67 xFIP. He faces a hot-hitting Phillies’ team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .277 Batting Average, .346 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .848 during that span. The Over is 11-4-2 in Philly’s last 17 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams’ bullpens are struggling right now. Philadelphia’s pen has a 6.11 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in their last seven games and the Mets’ bullpen has a 6.83 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in their last seven games. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (963) and the New York Mets (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-18-21 |
Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the New York Mets (908) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Carlos Carrasco. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (75-72) has won three straight games after their 4-3 victory in the opening game of this series last night. New York (72-76) has lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 8-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 10 games after a win — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after winning at least three games in a row. Furthermore, the Phillies have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 14-6-1 in their last 21 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Nola who has a 7-8 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 29 starts. He has not been as effective on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.56 mark along with a 1.24 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in 16 starts as compared to his 3.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and opponent’s batting average of .221 at home. Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with Nola their starting pitcher and favored up to a -150 price. Nola has struggled this month with a 7.53 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in three starts. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .775 OPS. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Carrasco who has a 1-2 record with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in nine starts. His ERA in six home games skyrockets to a 6.66 mark. His teams have played 30 of their last 43 home games Over the Total after a loss with Carrasco on the hill. His teams have also played 40 of their last 62 games Over the Total with Carrasco pitching at night.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .272 Batting Average, .347 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .826 over that span. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Saturday Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the New York Mets (908) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Carlos Carrasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-21 |
Cubs v. Brewers -1.5 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Zach Davies. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (89-57) had won five in a row before dropping their last two games in Detroit this week after a 4-1 loss on Wednesday. Chicago (66-81) has lost two in a row and five of their last six after a 17-8 loss at Pittsburgh on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Milwaukee returns home after a quick five-game road trip. The Brewers have won 7 of their last 9 games after an off day. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 8 of their last 10 home games when favored. Additionally, Milwaukee has won 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record. The Brewers usually take care of business against the bad teams in the league — they have won 43 of their last 59 games against teams with a losing record. They have also won 17 of their last 21 games when priced at -200 or higher. They give the ball to Houser who is 9-6 on the season with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 25 appearances. He has not allowed an earned run in his 15 innings this month over two starts. Since the All-Star Break, Houser has a 2.21 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .151 in eight games (seven starts). Houser has also done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in 13 games (11 starts). he will be supposed by a red-hot bullpen that has a 0.86 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in their last seven games. Milwaukee has won 7 of their last 9 games with Houser pitching in the second half of the season. He should thrive against this Cubs team that has only scored 4.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .227 Batting Average, .285 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .676. Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 36 of their last 53 games after a loss. And in their last 36 games on the road, the Cubs have lost 25 of these games. They counter with Davies who has a 6-11 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander may be tired as his mediocre numbers are fading fast. In his last eight starts since the beginning of August, Davies has an 8.73 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Chicago has lost 9 of their last 13 games with Davies pitching in the second half of the season. He will likely struggle against this Brewers team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 40 of their last 56 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have lost 26 of their last 33 games against teams with winning records — and they have lost 39 of their last 52 games as a money-line underdog. The Cubs have lost nine in a row to Milwaukee — with seven of these losses by more than one run — after a 17-4 loss at home on August 12th. Chicago has lost 9 of their last 11 games when avenging a loss at home by at least six runs — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against opponents that have beaten them at least five times in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Brewers have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 23 of their 30 victories this season when priced at -155 or higher — and this includes them covering the -1.5 Run-Line in 15 of these last 19 situations. The Cubs have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their last 13 losses when priced at +145 or higher. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line of the Year with the Milwaukee Brewers (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-21 |
Astros -1.5 v. Rangers |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-132 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (923) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (924) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles. THE SITUATION: Houston (84-59) has won five of their last seven games after their 15-1 victory against the Rangers in the opening game of this series. Texas (53-90) has still won six of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston should build off the momentum of their easy win last night. The Astros have won 16 of their last 20 games on the road after scoring at least eight runs in their last game. Houston clubbed five home runs last night — and they have then won 5 of their last 6 games after hitting at least four homers in their last game. The Astros have won 21 of their last 31 games on the road when favored — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. They give the ball to Greinke who has an 11-5 record with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 27 starts. The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road with a 2.89 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in 13 starts. Houston has won 5 of their last 7 road games with Greinke pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Rangers team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Texas has lost 49 of their last 71 games after a loss — and they have lost 38 of their last 55 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game. They have also lost 17 of their last 25 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after winning six or seven of their last eight. The Rangers have lost 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 home games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Lyles who has an 8-11 record with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP this season. The right-hander comes off a rare strong outing where he only gave up one earned run in seven innings of work at Arizona last Tuesday. But Lyles was saddled with a 7.60 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .329 in his six starts in August. The Rangers have lost 12 of their last 17 games with Lyles pitching on at least seven days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Astros team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .319 Batting Average, .394 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .935 during that span. Houston has won their last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 35 of their 44 victories when priced at -155 or higher — and they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 20 of these last 24 circumstances. The Rangers have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 37 of their 45 losses this season when priced at +145 or higher — including 29 of these last 32 circumstances. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (923) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (924) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-10-21 |
Royals +119 v. Twins |
Top |
6-4 |
Win
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119 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (917) versus the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Lynch and Griffin Jax. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (63-77) has won three of their last five games after their 6-0 win at Baltimore yesterday. Minnesota (62-78) had their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 4-1 loss at Cleveland.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Kansas City has been playing better baseball as of late — and they have won 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Royals have won 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Additionally, Kansas City has pulled offsets in 6 of their last 8 games when an underdog — and they have won 4 of their last 5 road games as a money-line underdog. The Royals have also won 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Lynch who has a 4-4 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 11 starts this season. After a slow start to the season, Lynch had rattled off seven straight starts where he posted a 2.23 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. But Lynch was hit hard in his last outing against the Chicago White Sox where he gave up six runs in 2 2/3 innings last Saturday. The left-hander has only pitched 51 innings this season so I do not he is tiring at this point of the year. Look for Lynch to redeem himself with a strong outing tonight. The Royals have won 6 of their 8 games in the second half of the season with Lynch making the start. Lynch’s ERA drops to a 3.47 mark in his five starts on the road — and Kansas City has won 3 of their 4 games with him pitching as a money-line underdog. He should pitch well against this Twins team that is scoring 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .234 Batting Average, .293 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .703. Minnesota has lost 16 of their last 21 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 home games against left-handed starters. The Twins have not scored more than three runs in their last three games — and they have lost 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than three runs in their last three games. And while Minnesota has not allowed more than four runs in their last three games, they have then lost 9 of their last 12 games after not giving up more than four runs in three straight games. Additionally, the Twins have lost 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with losing records. They counter with Jax who has a 3-3 record with a 6.79 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The right-hander has struggled all season but it has been worse as of late. In his six starts since the start of August, Jax has a 7.10 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .264 Batting Average, .318 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 752 (significantly better than their 4.2 scoring average, .244 Batting Average, .299 On-Base Percentage, and .683 OPS for the season). The Royals have won 11 of their last 15 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB American League Central Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (917) versus the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Lynch and Griffin Jax. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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