06-15-19 |
Mariners v. A's OVER 9 |
Top |
2-11 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Seattle (30-43) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-2 score over Oakland (35-35) in Oakland Alameda County Coliseum.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is also 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They stay on the road where the Over is a decisive 34-16-1 in their last 51 games — and the Over is also 11-3-1 in Seattle’s last 15 road games against teams with a losing record. And while the A’s are 18-14 at home this year, the Mariners have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the month of June — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow AL West foes. They will be using an opening tonight with Bautista taking the hill with his 5.40 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Bautista had a 12.46 ERA with a 3.00 WHIP in 4 1/3 innings of work last season. Let’s put it this way: although Bautista has appeared in only eight games in his major league career since debuting last year, he has allowed at least one run in six of those contests. So when Wade LeBlanc enters this game in the second inning, there is a good chance that the A’s will already have runs on the board. The left-hander has a 3-2 record this year with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in six starts/eight appearances this season. LeBlanc was not quite as effective on the road last year where he had a 1.24 WHIP with a .255 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 1.12 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average at home. LeBlanc has struggled under the lights this year with a 6.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average in three starts/four appearances at night. Bautista and then LeBlanc will be facing an A’s team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Seattle bullpen will not offer much support either was LeBlanc is pulled. The Mariners’ pen has a 6.32 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP on the road — and they have a 7.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in their last seven games. Oakland has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The A’s have also played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9 to 9.5 range. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AL West foes. They counter with Montas who is 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirteen starts. The 26-year old is enjoying a breakout season — but the sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.55 respectively moving forward based off his deeper peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.54 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average at home as opposed to his 3.44 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average on the road. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Montas pitching with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. Montas last pitched on June 9th — and Oakland has played 7 straight games Over the Total when he is starting with five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Mariners lineup that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .265 batting average, .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .850 over that span. The Over is also 33-16-2 in Seattle’s last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 14 contests Over the Total. Expect another higher scoring game between these two clubs. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-15-19 |
Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 |
|
8-14 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (34-36) won the opening game of this series last night by a 16-12 score that required 12 innings. The Padres snapped a five-game losing streak with that victory. Colorado (36-33) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-2-1 in San Diego’s last 7 games after a win — and the Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 6-1-2 in their last 9 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Padres have also played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Lauer who is 5-5 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in five stats. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.69 and 4.72 moving forward this season. The left-hander has been quite good at home in Petco Park where he has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers skyrocket to a 6.84 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average of .263 in five starts on the road. Coors Field has been a house of horrors for Lauer as well — he has a 21.00 ERA with a 3.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .429 in two appearances covering 6 innings in his career pitching in that thin air against the Rockies. The Over is 4-0-2 in Colorado’s last 6 games on the road with Lauer on the hill. He faces a Rockies team that is scoring 6.5 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .302 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .896. Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total after allowing at least nine runs in their last game. The Rockies have played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Marquez who is 6-3 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander struggles at home where he has a 5.06 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in eight starts as camped to his 3.33 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Marquez had a nice 2.95 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average on the road but a 4.74 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average at home in Coors Field. Colorado has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Marquez on the mound facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Padres team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. San Diego has seen the Over go 11-4-2 in their last 17 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-19 |
Mariners +1.5 v. A's |
|
9-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (927) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Chris Bassitt. THE SITUATION: Seattle (29-43) begins this series coming off a 10-5 loss at Minnesota yesterday. Oakland (35-34) comes off a 6-2 victory in Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The A’s have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Oakland returns home where they have lost 5 straight games. They give the ball to Bassitt who is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting a rise in his ERA to 4.39 and 4.51 moving forward based off his deeper peripheral numbers. Bassett has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.18 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in four starts as compared to his 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .185 opponent’s batting average on the road. The A’s have lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Bassitt on the hill facing a team with a losing record. He faces a hot-hitting Mariners team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .252 batting average along with a .332 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .795 over that span. Seattle started the season winning thirteen of their first fifteen games before crashing back to Earth. Their loss on Thursday was the result of their bullpen surrendering nine runs after the game was tied at 1-1 in the bottom of the 6th inning. The Mariners have been resilient as they have bounced-back to won 4 straight games after a loss — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Seattle has won 17 of their last 25 games after a game where their bullpen surrendered at least four runs. They counter with Gonzales who is 6-6 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander opened the season 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA — but he suffered a disastrous month of May. Things may have turned around for Gonzales as he allowed only two hits in 5 2/3 innings on the road against the Angels in his last start. Gonzales has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.02 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in seven starts as compared to his 6.53 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .312 opponent’s batting average at home. That start against the Angels was back on June 7th — and the Mariners have won 4 of their last 5 games with Gonzales pitching with six days of rest. Seattle has also won 6 of their last 9 road games with Gonzales pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. He faces a slumping A’s lineup that is hitting only .229 over their last seven games with a .281 On-Base Percentage an OPS of .692 in that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners are heavy underdogs in this game with their price in the +170 range. With their +1.5 Run-Line price below my -150 threshold, I much prefer that investment with the very valuable +1.5 Run-Line in MLB. Seattle is also supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 67% effective over the last five seasons. American League teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP in the 1.30 to 1.40 range coming off a game where their bullpen allowed at least five runs have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 58 of these last 87 situations where these conditions applied. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Seattle Mariners (927) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Chris Bassitt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-14-19 |
Phillies v. Braves -132 |
Top |
8-9 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (908) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (40-29) has won seven straight games after their 6-5 win over Pittsburgh last night. Philadelphia (38-30) has lost three of their last four games after losing at home to Arizona on Wednesday by a 2-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This streaking Atlanta team has won 23 of their last 31 games after a victory. The Braves have also won 5 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 6 straight games — and they have won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Fried who is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in thirteen starts (fifteen appearances). The left-hander has been most effective when pitching at home in Suntrust Park where he owns a 2.75 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in six starts as opposed to his 4.75 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .301 opponent’s batting average in seven starts (and nine appearances) on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where Fried’s late-season call-up resulted in a 2.40 ERA, 1.27 WHOP and .200 opponent’s batting average in 15 innings at home but a 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average in 18 2/3 innings on the road. Fried’s improvement this season has in part come from his addition of a slider that has given him a third effective pitch. He is also inducing ground balls in 54.8% of the batted balls he is allowing into play. Bases-on-balls has been Fried’s biggest Achilles’ heel in the minor leagues but he has seen an improvement in his control this season. He has issued two walks or less in eight of his last nine starts this year. Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games with Fried facing a team with a winning record. He should have success facing this Phillies team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games after a game where no more than two combined runs were scored. The Phillies managed only three hits on Wednesday against the Diamondbacks — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 road games after not generating more than four base hits in their last game. They go on the road where they have lost 5 of their last 7 games — and they have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Philly has lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Pivetta who is 4-1 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in seven starts. The right-hander entered the season with high expectations but he struggled with an 8.35 ERA in his first five starts which prompted him to be demoted to the minors. While Pivetta started striking out more batters in Triple-A which was enough for the Phillies to recall him to the majors again, control remains an issue as he walked 20 Triple-A batters in 37 innings. Pivetta has allowed only one run in his two starts back in the bigs — but he is making only his second start away from home this season. Pivetta struggled on the road last year where he had a 5.33 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .276 as compared to his 4.34 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .249 opponent’s batting average at home in Citizen’s Bank Park. Pivetta also issued 3.34 Walks per 9 innings on the road last year. Philadelphia has lost 5 straight games on the road with Pivetta on the mound. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .279 batting average along with a .363 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .894 over that span. Atlanta has won 7 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have also won 13 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta begins this NL East weekend showdown one game ahead of the Phillies in first place in the division. Philadelphia has lost 5 straight games against the Braves in Suntrust Park. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break NL East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (908) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-13-19 |
Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 |
|
6-9 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Colorado Rockies (958) listing both starting pitchers Matt Strahm and Jon Gray. THE SITUATION: Colorado enters this season coming off a 10-1 loss at home to the Cubs yesterday. San Diego (33-35) has lost four in a row after they lost in San Francisco to the Giants yesterday by a 4-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have seen the Under go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a loss — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in their last game. Colorado has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Gray who is 5-5 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander is very comfortable pitching at home in Coors Field where he has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in five starts — and he has a 1.88 ERA in his last four home starts. He finds success in the thin air because he does a great job of inducing ground balls — his Ground Ball rate is at 48% this season. The Rockies have played 5 straight home games Under the Total with Gray on the hill — and they have played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total with Gray pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher. Gray also loves pitching against the Padres. In his seventeen career starts against San Diego, Gray is 9-3 with a 2.70 ERA. Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Gray facing San Diego. Gray should have another great performance tonight against this Padres team that is scoring just 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting just .211 over that span with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .617. San Diego has played 7 straight games Under the Total after suffering three straight losses. The Under is also 15-5-4 in the Padres’ last 24 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games — and the Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games on the road again teams with a winning record. They counter with Strahm who is 2-5 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in eleven starts. The left-hander is coming off the disabled list after serving the minimum number of days after being struck in the ribcage with a line drive — so he should be good-to-go. Strahm has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.73 ERA in six starts with an opponent’s batting average of .248 as compared to his 5.60 ERA and a .260 batting average at home. Strahm had a 1.67 ERA on the road last year which was better than his 2.48 ERA when pitching at home in Petco Park. The Under is 7-1-2 in the Padres’ last 10 road games with Strahm on the hill. He faces a Rockies’ team that has seen their bats cool off as of late. Colorado is only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .240 batting average along with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .662 over that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games when they are facing left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Colorado’s Coors Field. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Colorado Rockies (958) listing both starting pitchers Matt Strahm and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-13-19 |
Cardinals v. Mets -143 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-143 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Ne York Mets (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: New York has won three of their last four games after their 10-4 win in Yankee Stadium on Tuesday against the Yankees. St. Louis (33-33) has lost four of their last six games with their 9-0 loss in Miami yesterday.
THE SITUATION: The Cardinals managed only three hits against the Marlins yesterday — and they have then lost 9 of their last 11 games after failing to manage more than four base hits in their last game. St. Louis has struggled when playing away from Busch Stadium as they have lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road. The Cardinals have also lost 19 of their last 26 road games against teams with winning percentage over 60% at home. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 4-3 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in six starts. The right-hander is giving up too many gopher balls as he is allowing 1.58 Home Runs per 9 innings this season. Flaherty is also struggling on the road where he sees his numbers rise to a 6.67 ERA along with a 1.69 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .291 in six starts. St. Louis has lost 8 of their last 10 road games with Flaherty on the hill — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Flaherty facing a team with a losing record. He faces a hot-hitting Mets team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .274 batting average, .333 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .842 over that span. New York has won 11 of their last 12 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mets are 19-11 at home this season as they won 13 of their last 16 games at home. They also have won 17 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. Perhaps the hitters will finally start giving some run support to Jacob DeGrom. The right-hander won the National League Cy Young Award winner last year despite just a 10-9 record. DeGrom won the award because he posted a 1.70 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP in 32 starts with 28 of those starts qualifying as a Quality Start. DeGrom was almost unhittable at home in Citi Field last year where he had a 1.54 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .180. This season, DeGrom has a 3-6 record with a 3.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in thirteen starts. DeGrom has registered eleven Quality Starts this year — and he has not allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last four starts. The Mets usually step up for their ace when he is facing the Cardinals as they have won 4 of their last 5 home games with DeGrom pitching against St. Louis. DeGrom faces a slumping Cards’ lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting just .210 batting average along with a .269 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .599 over that span. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games played at Citi Field against the Mets. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Ne York Mets (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-11-19 |
Pirates v. Braves OVER 9.5 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (37-29) have won four games in a row after winning the opening game of this series yesterday with their 13-7 victory over the Pirates. Pittsburgh (30-35) has lost four straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has seen the Over go 21-8-1 in their last 30 games after scoring at least five runs — and the Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Over is 7-3-1 in the Pirates’ last 11 games on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Archer who is 3-5 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in ten starts. Archer faced off against the Braves with Foltynewicz on the hill in his last start back on June 6th where he led his team to a 6-1 win — back that game was in Pittsburgh. The inconsistent right-hander has been a house of horrors on the road where he sees his ERA and WHIP skyrocket to 7.98 and 1.57 marks in three starts. The Pirates have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Archer pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .259 batting average along with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .846 over that span. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 5-1-1 in the Braves’ last 7 games after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta won their previous game on Sunday with a 7-6 win over Miami — and they have played a decisive 24 of their last 29 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where they scored and allowed at least six runs. Additionally, the Over is 5-0-1 in the Marlins’ last 6 games at home — and the Over is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 1-5 with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has really struggled at home in Suntrust Park where he sees his ERA rise to a 7.18 mark while posting a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in five starts. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Braves’ last 6 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. While Foltynewicz had seen his results improve with an uptick in velocity of his fastball, he has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts for a 6.55 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP. He faces a better-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .267 batting average, .310 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .776.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has seen the Over go 12-5-1 in their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-11-19 |
Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 9 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. THE SITUATION: Toronto (23-42) begins this series having lost four straight games after their 8-2 loss on Sunday to Arizona. Baltimore (20-45) has lost four of their last five games with their 4-0 loss in Houston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays’ offense is struggling after getting shutout once and plating only four runners in their three-game series with the Diamondbacks over the weekend. They generated only one base-hit in their sixteen at-bats with Runners In Scoring Position over those three games — and they are hitting just .161 over their last 112 at-bats with RISP. Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set at 9 to 9.5. The Blue Jays have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 range. Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Thornton who is 1-4 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The rookie is striking out 24.8% of the batters he has faced — and he is averaging a robust 9.8 batters per 9 innings of work. Walks have been his biggest weakness — but the right-hander has been much better on the road where he has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in six starts as compared to his 6.39 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Thornton on the hill. Thornton should pitch well against this Orioles lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .217 over that span with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Orioles have played five straight games where neither team scored more than four runs — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where neither team scored more than four runs. Baltimore returns home to Charm City where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Orioles have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Means who is 5-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHP in ten starts (fourteen appearances). The right-hander has maintained a 2.77 ERA in his last ten appearances since April 14th. The left-hander has been remarkably consistent as he has not allowed more than three earned runs in nine of his ten starts including his last six starts. Means has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.53 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in five starts (seven appearances) as compared to his 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Orioles have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Means on the mound — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Means pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over that span with a .214 batting average, .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .642 over that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in Toronto’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 35-15-1 in their last 51 meetings — and this includes the Under going 14-6-1 in the last 21 contests between these AL East rivals when playing in Camden Yards. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-19 |
Nationals -148 v. Padres |
|
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (963) versus the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Luis Perdomo. THE SITUATION: Washington (29-35) has won five of their last seven games with their 4-1 win over the Padres yesterday. San Diego (33-32) has lost five of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Washington has won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Nationals have also won a decisive 40 of their last 62 games on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. They give the ball to Strasburg who is 6-3 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in thirteen starts. The sabermetrics suggest that the right-hand should be seeing even better numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.30 and 3.18 moving forward. Strasburg has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.18 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in seven starts as compared to his 3.96 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Strasburg had a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average on the road but a 5.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average at home. Strasburg has been dominant in his day game starts where he owns a 2.09 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .188. The former San Diego State star will be fired up to pitch in his former home — he has a 3-1 record with a 3.12 ERA in his four previous career starts at Petco Park. Washington has won 38 of their last 51 games on the road with Strasburg on the hill — and they have also won 16 of their last 21 road games with Strasburg facing a team wit ha winning record. He faces a Padres team that has lost 5 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 30 of their last 42 home games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. The Padres have also lost 31 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Perdomo who is 0-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander pitched an inning last night so he may not be called on to pitch more than an inning or two as an opener in what will be his first start of the season. Perdomo was 1-6 last year with a 7.05 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP — and he really struggled at home for the Padres where he was saddled with a 12.63 ERA along with a 2.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .420. San Diego has lost 6 straight home games with Perdomo on the mound. He faces a Washington team that won 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Nats have also won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres bullpen will likely be required to pitch the majority of the team’s innings today — but they have an uninspiring 4.88 ERA over their last seven games. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (963) versus the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Luis Perdomo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-08-19 |
Cardinals v. Cubs +101 |
|
4-9 |
Win
|
101 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (908) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Chicago (35-27) has won four of their last five games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 3-1 score. St. Louis (31-30) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 15 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cubs have won 21 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 29 home games when listed in the +/- 125 price range, Chicago has won 20 of these contests. They send out Lester who is 4-4 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in eleven starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.76 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in six starts as compared to his 4.97 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the road. The Cubs have won a decisive 40 of their last 55 home games with Lester on the hill. Chicago has also won 5 of their last 6 home games with Lester facing the Cardinals. Lester comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one run in 7 innings of work at home against the Angels — and the Cubs have won 12 of their last 17 games when Lester is following up a Quality Start. He faces a slumping Cardinals lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .228 batting average along with a .278 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666. St. Louis managed only four hits yesterday — and they have then lost 8 of their last 9 games after not generating more than four hits in their last game. The Cardinals have now lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Flaherty who is 4-3 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander thrives at home where he has a 2.25 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .188 — but he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 6.20 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in five starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Flaherty had a 2.93 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP at home but a 3.67 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP on the road. St. Louis has lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with Flaherty on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have lost 20 of their last 26 games against the Cubs in Wrigley Field. 10* MLB St. Louis-Chicago Cubs Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (908) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-19 |
A's v. Angels -120 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (926) versus the Oakland A’s (925) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Fiers. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (30-22) has won six of their last nine games with their 10-9 win over the A’s last night. Oakland (30-31) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Both bullpens blew saves last night before LA scored the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning to break a 9-9 tie. The Angels have won 4 of their last 5 games after a game where their bullpen blew the save. Los Angeles has also won 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 4-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in ten starts. The left-hander has been much better at home where he owns a 2.26 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in four starts as compared to his 6.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .275 opponent’s batting average on the road. Los Angeles has won 11 of their last 16 home games with Skaggs on the hill against teams with a losing record. LA has also won 4 of their last 5 games with Skaggs pitching in the month of June. He faces a cold A’s lineup that is scoring 4.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .297 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .745 over that span. Oakland has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 7 of their last 11 games after blowing a save in their last contest. The A’s have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road to a fellow AL West rival — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Oakland has lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range — and they have lost 40 of their last 57 road games after playing their last three games against an AL West foe. They counter with Fiers who is 4-3 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been solid at home where he has a 3.60 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .196 opponent’s batting average including a no-hitter in a night we were on him and the A’s — but he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 6.37 ERA on the road with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in six starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Fiers had a 2.81 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average at home but a 4.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average on the road. Oakland has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road with Fiers on the hill. And while he comes off a strong start at home where he allowed only two runs in 6 2/3 innings of work against the Astros, the A’s have lost 4 straight games with Fiers following up a Quality Start. Los Angeles is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .278 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .823. The Angels have won 14 of their last 20 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has lost 19 of their last 27 games against the Angels when playing in Anaheim in Angels’ Stadium. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (926) versus the Oakland A’s (925) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Fiers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-19 |
Twins +109 v. Indians |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
109 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (921) versus the Cleveland Indians (922) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Trevor Bauer. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (31-30) have won three of their last four games after taking the first two games of this series after they rallied from a four-run deficit to defeat Minnesota (40-20) by a 9-7 score last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Indians have then lost 3 of their last 4 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. Cleveland has also lost 8 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while the Indians’ bullpen pitched 7 2/3 innings yesterday with Tyler Clippard serving as the opening in a bullpen game after Carlos Carrasco was scratched with the news of his health condition, they have then lost 4 straight games after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 6 innings in their last game. They give the ball to Bauer who is 4-5 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in thirteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander who is 0-4 in his last six starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.25 and 4.50 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 5.60 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in six starts as opposed to his 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the road. Cleveland has lost 4 of their last 5 home games with Bauer on the mound. He faces a strong Twins lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .287 batting average, .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .873 in those games. Minnesota has won 37 of their last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning nine of their last twelve games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have bounced-back to win 21 of their last 28 games after a loss. They also have won 9 of their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. This team has won 12 of their last 16 games on the road. Minnesota has also won 15 of their last 21 games in expected close contests where they are priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Berrios who is 7-2 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twelve starts this season. The right-hander has been a bit better on the road where he has a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in six starts on the road as compared to his 1.16 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average at home. The Twins have won 4 straight road games with Berrios on the mound. He comes off a strong outing where he allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings of work at Tampa Bay — and Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games with Berrios following up a Quality Start. The Twins have also won 4 of their last 5 games with Berrios facing the Indians. He faces a Cleveland team scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers while sporting a .227 batting average, .304 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .664 in those games. The Indians have lost 7 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota may have lost the first two games of this series but they have then won 7 of their last 8 games when motivated by at least double revenge. 25* MLB American League Central Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (921) versus the Cleveland Indians (922) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Trevor Bauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-19 |
Marlins v. Brewers OVER 8 |
|
1-5 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Milwaukee Brewers (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Freddy Peralta. THE SITUATION: Miami (23-36) has won the first two games of this series as part of a four-game winning streak after they defeated Milwaukee (34-28) by an 8-3 score yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have banged out 24 runs in the first two games of this series. Miami has then played 23 of their last 33 road games Over the Total after a win. The Marlins have also seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games on the road — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Miami has played 33 of their last 53 road games as a big underdog priced in the +150 to +200 price range. They give the ball to Smith who is 3-3 with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in eleven starts. The left-hander is a fly ball pitcher who thrives at home in the spacious Marlins Park where he owns a 1.84 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .176 in five starts. But in his six starts on the road, Smith sees his ERA rise to a 4.26 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200. Smith has already surrendered 10 homers this season. The Over is 3-0-1 in Miami’s last 4 games on the road with Smith on the hill. Smith also has struggled in day games where he has an 8.00 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP in two starts this year. He faces a Brewers team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .280 batting average along with a .317 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .830 over that span. Milwaukee has played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Brewers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They also have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Peralta who is 2-2 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. The right-hander has struggled as a starter in his brief MLB career where he has a 5.16 ERA as compared to his 2.12 ERA when he is coming out of the bullpen. Peralta has also not been as effective at home where he owns a 6.98 ERA along with a 1.81 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in 19 1/3 innings as compared to his 4.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average in 18 2/3 innings on the road. Milwaukee has played 6 straight home games Over the Total with Peralta on the hill. The Brewers have also played 8 straight Overs with Peralta pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a hot-hitting Marlins team that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .296 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .846 during that span. The Over is 5-2-1 in Miami’s last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Marlins have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is now 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams when playing in Milwaukee. Expect a high scoring game in this afternoon Getaway Game. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon O/U Matinee with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Milwaukee Brewers (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Freddy Peralta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-19 |
Braves v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
|
4-7 |
Win
|
103 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (955) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (33-27) has won three straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night with their 12-5 victory over the Pirates. Pittsburgh (28-31) has now lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the Atlanta bullpen has logged in nine combined innings in their last two games, they have then played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after having their bullpen pitch at least 9 combined innings over their last two games. Additionally, the Braves have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Gausman who is 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has been less effective on the road where he has a 1.54 WHIP along with a .275 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 1.26 WHIP and .241 opponent’s batting average at home. The Over is 4-0-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road with Gausman on the hill. He faces a Pittsburgh team that has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Pirates have also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Pittsburgh is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .356 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .801 over that span. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have seen the Over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while Pittsburgh has also lost six of their last eight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Pirates have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 3-6 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twelve games (eleven starts). The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 6.41 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in five starts as compared to his 3.29 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .196. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with his numbers with the Pirates last year where he had a 3.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average at home but a 4.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. Pittsburgh has played 4 straight home games Over the Total at home with Musgrove on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Expect a higher scoring game between these two teams tonight. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (955) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-19 |
Phillies v. Padres -145 |
|
9-6 |
Loss |
-145 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (914) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (913) listing both starting pitchers Chris Paddack and Jerad Eickhoff. THE SITUATION: San Diego (31-29) won the opening game of this series last night by an 8-2 score. Philadelphia (33-27) has now lost five straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego has won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Padres have also won 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Paddack who is 4-3 with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in ten starts this season. The 23-year old rookie has been terrific this season by averaging 9.9 strikeouts per 9 innings while sporting an impressive 5.2 Strikeout-to-Walk ratio. The right-hander has been more impressive at home where he owns a 1.42 ERA with a 0.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .139 in five starts as compared to his 3.65 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 when on the road. He should thrive against this Philadelphia team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .256 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .611 over that span. The Phillies have lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Philadelphia has lost 4 straight games after a loss. The Phillies have also lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have lost 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Eickhoff who is 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in seven starts. The right-hander did not allow a home run in his first 30 innings this season — but he has surrendered 10 homers over his last four starts spanning 18 1/3 innings. Eickhoff’s velocity on his fastball is below 89 miles per hour which is a very troubling sign for a fly ball pitcher. Over his last four starts, he has a rough 8.19 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP. Eickhoff has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 4.24 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 as compared to his 4.02 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in five starts at home. The Phillies have lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road with Eickhoff on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has received more bad news today with the announcement that Andrew McCutchen will miss the rest of the season with the knee injury he suffered in last night’s game. The Phillies have lost 6 of their last 7 games played in San Diego. 20* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (914) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (913) listing both starting pitchers Chris Paddack and Jerad Eickhoff. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-19 |
Red Sox v. Yankees -125 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (972) versus the Boston Red Sox (971) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: New York (37-19) has won ten of their last twelve games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 4-1 score. Boston (29-28) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 20 of their last 28 games after a win — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. The Yankees have also won 22 of their last 28 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. New York has now won 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 20 games when the favorite priced from -100 to -150, the Bronx Bombers have won 17 of these games. They give the ball to German who is 9-1 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in eleven appearances (ten starts). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 1.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in four starts (and five appearances). The Yankees have won 6 of their last 8 home games with German on the hill — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games with German facing a team with a winning record. Boston has lost 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring one more than one run in their last game. The Red Sox bullpen did not allow an earned run yesterday — but they have lost 14 of their last 22 games after a game where their bullpen was unscathed. Despite last night’s effort, the Boston bullpen still has a 6.57 ERA with a 1.99 WHIP over their last seven games. The Red Sox have lost their last 4 second games to a new series. Additionally, Boston has lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with winning record. They counter with Porcello who is 4-4 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.76 mark along with a 1.52 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .297. Porcello struggles with giving up gopher balls which is a scary proposition against the Bronx Bombers in Yankee Stadium. He allowed 1.27 Home Runs per 9 innings last year — and that mark has risen to a 1.42 Home Runs per 9 innings mark this season. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with Porcello’s SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.95 and 5.27 respectively. He faces a Yankees team that has won 36 of their last 54 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has now lost 11 of their last 16 games in Yankee Stadium against the Pinstripes. The Red Sox have also lost 6 of their last 9 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they did not score more than one run. 10* MLB Boston-NY Yankees Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the New York Yankees (972) versus the Boston Red Sox (971) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-19 |
Angels v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-29) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-3 score. Seattle (24-35) has lost three straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Angels have played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 4-4 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander does his best pitching at home where he sports a 2.28 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 — but he sees those numbers rise to a 6.56 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in five starts. He will be supported by a bullpen that has been rocked with a 5.25 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP over their last seven games. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing the Mariners — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing this team in Seattle. Skaggs faces a Mariners team that has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has also seen the Over go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 29-14-1 in the Mariners’ last 44 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Additionally, the Over is 12-3-1 in the Mariners’ last 16 games at home — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Over is 15-5-1 in Seattle’s last 21 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Leake who is 3-6 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.44 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .300 in four starts at T-Mobile Park as opposed to his 1.36 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Leake had a 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .274 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Leake facing a team with a losing record. Seattle has also played 5 straight games Over the Total with Leake facing the Angels. Leake will be supported by a tired bullpen that has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over their last two games. The Mariners have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings over their last two games. This bullpen has a 4.86 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP when pitching at home. The Angels are scoring a robust 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820 over that span. Additionally, LA has played 5 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least six runs. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-19 |
Indians v. White Sox UNDER 10 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. THE SITUATION: Chicago (26-29) ha won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 10-4 score. Cleveland (28-27) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss. Cleveland has now played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bauer who is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.40 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in six starts. The Under is a decisive 45-11-7 in the Indians’ last 63 road games with Bauer on the hill. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 road games in Chicago facing the White Sox. Bauer will be supported by an elite Indians’ bullpen that has a 3.15 ERA on the road with a 1.21 WHIP. Bauer faces a White Sox lineup that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season while posting a .249 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .694 in those games. Chicago has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 15-7-1 in the White Sox’s last 23 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least six runs over an AL Central rival. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 Games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total after scoring at least 8 runs in their last contest. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Covey who is 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in five starts and seven appearances this season. The right-hander has been effective when pitching at home where he sees is ERA and WHIP plummet to 2.61 and 1.16 marks — and his opponents are hitting just .189 when he pitching at home in Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has played 5 straight games Under the Total with Covey pitching on four days of rest between starts — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Covey making the start against the Indians. Covey’s bullpen enters this game with a 2.37 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in night games this season. Cleveland is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .224 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668. The Indians have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With Bauer struggling this month and bettors not giving much respect to Covey, the Total has been set in the 10 range for this contest. Bauer has allowed at least four runs in his last three starts — but all those efforts were at home where he has a history of not always being as effective. Bauer has still amassed 88 strikeouts in 76 innings of work — and he is facing a White Sox team that strikes out 30% of the time against elite starting pitchers like Bauer with similar profiles. Covey is not a strikeout pitcher and gets into trouble when issuing too many bases-on-balls — but the ground ball pitcher has better control when pitching at home. 10s or higher is too high for this matchup especially with two of the weaker lineups in the league. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-19 |
Mets v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (969) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jason Vargas. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (37-19) has won five of their last six games after winning the third game of this series last night by a 9-8 score. New York (27-28) has lost two of their last three games as they close out this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have been dominant at home where they have won 39 of their last 53 games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. LA has also won 18 of their last 22 after playing their last two games at home. The Dodgers have won 24 of their last 29 games when favored by at least a -150 price. They give the ball to Ryu who is 7-1 with a 1.65 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in ten starts. The left-hander has been almost unhittable at home where he owns a 1.22 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP and .177 opponent’s batting average in five starts. His disparate home-road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 1.15 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average on the road. Los Angeles has won 22 of their last 28 home games with Ryu pitching against teams with a losing record. The Dodgers have also won 5 of their last 6 games against the Mets with Ryu on the hill. New York has lost 15 of their last 21 road games after being on the road for at least their previous two games. The Mets have lost 18 of their last 23 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Furthermore, New York has lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Vargas who is 1-2 with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in seven starts (eight games). The left-hander has been solid at home where he owns a 3.94 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 — but he sees those numbers explode to a 6.75 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 when he is pitching on the road. The Mets have lost 7 of their last 10 games with Vargas pitching with four days of rest. Vargas faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .325 batting average along with a .399 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .967 over that span. LA is also scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .281 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .852. The Dodgers have also won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have now lost 8 of their last 11 games in LA against the Dodgers. With the Dodgers priced in the high -200s for this game, the straight-up side play is well beyond my -150 price threshold. And while the team trends mentioned in this Report do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we will be laying, the Run-Line is supported by a historical angle that has been 71% effective since 1997. The Mets average 1.33 Home Runs per game — but road underdogs who average at least 1.25 Home Runs per game coming off a game where at least 17 combined runs were scored have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 50 of these last 71 situations (when priced in the +110 to +155 price range). 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Los Angeles Dodgers (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (969) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jason Vargas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-19 |
Cubs v. Astros +101 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (928) versus the Chicago Cubs (927) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks. THE SITUATION: Houston (37-19) has won the first two games of this series — as well as four of their last five games — with their 9-6 win over the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (30-23) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won a decisive 48 of their last 68 games after a win. Additionally, the Astros have won 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Houston has also won 18 of their last 20 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. The Astros are tough at home where they are 22-7 this season — and they have won 36 of their last 51 home games in Minute Maid Park. Houston has also won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They give the ball to Miley who is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The left-hander comes off a strong start at home where he held the Red Sox to just one run in 6 innings of work while punching out eight batters. The Astros have won 5 straight games with Miley pitching after a Quality Start in his last outing. Miley has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.15 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in five starts as opposed to his 4.36 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .281 opponent’s batting average on the road. Houston has won five straight games with Miley on the mound. Say this about Miley: he is remarkably consistent about keeping his team competitive in his starts. He did not allow more than three earned runs in any of 16 starts with Milwaukee last year and he has only allowed more than three runs just once in his eleven starts for Houston this season. Miley has also been very tough under the lights as he owns a 2.15 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in five starts. His teams have won 18 of their last 23 night games with Miley making the start. Chicago has lost 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Additionally, the Cubs have lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Chicago has lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Hendricks who is 4-4 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 3.84 moving forward. Hendricks has thrived at home in Wrigley Field where he owns a 1.29 ERA with 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 — but those numbers rise to a 6.00 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Hendricks pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Chicago has also lost 6 of their last 9 games with Hendricks pitching against an American League team. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .289 batting average along with a .364 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .818.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have lost 9 of their last 13 games when playing the Astros in Houston. 25* MLB ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Houston Astros (928) versus the Chicago Cubs (927) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-19 |
Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (26-29) has won three of their last four games after winning the third game of this series last night by an 11-6 score. Pittsburgh (26-27) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. The Reds host this Getaway Game this afternoon to close out this four-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also seen the Over go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And the Over is now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They give the ball to Brault who will serve as the opener this afternoon with his 1-1 record along with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings of work. The left-hander has been even less effective on the road where he has a 9.00 ERA with 2.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .353 in 12 innings — and he has an 11.88 ERA with a 2.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .378 during the day this season. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 4 road games with Brault on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Reds lineup that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .340 batting average along with a .399 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .988 over that span. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Cincy’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates’ bullpen will be called on to log in plenty of innings after Brault this afternoon — but that group has an ERA of 5.85 over their last seven games with a WHIP of 1.67. Cincinnati has played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Reds have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 2-2- with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.68 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in four starts as compared to his 4.55 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP on the road. Tony Disco had a 5.02 ERA at home in the Great American Ballpark last year as competed to his more modest 4.78 ERA when on the road. The Over is 4-0-2 in Cincinnati’s last 6 home games with DeSclafani on the hill — and the Reds have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with him facing the Pirates. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 6.58 ERA over their last seven games. Pittsburgh is also swinging hot bats as they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .292 batting average with a .332 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams in this afternoon Getaway Game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-19 |
Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-18) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-5 score over New York (26-27).
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets bullpen surrendered seven runs in their last loss yesterday on Memorial Day. New York has then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four runs. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Mets have played 18 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. They give the ball to Matz who is 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bearish on the left-handed knuckleballer with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.06 and 4.00 moving forward. Matz has been very good at home where he owns a 1.50 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 — but those numbers rise to a 6.10 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Matz had a 3.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 at home but a 4.46 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 5-2-1 in New York’s last 8 road games with Matz facing a team with a winning record. The Over is also 9-2-1 in the Mets’ last 12 games when Matz is pitching on four days rest. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .306 batting average along with a .392 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .898 over that span. Los Angeles is also scoring a healthy 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .277 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .837. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers banged out 17 hits yesterday — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after producing at least 17 hits in their last game. They counter with Hill who is 1-1 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving as his SIERA and xFIP project a rise in his ERA to 3.28 and 3.29 respectively based on his peripheral numbers. The left-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 3.27 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in two starts. Last year, Hill had a 3.69 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 at home with all those numbers improving to a 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .193 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with Hill pitching on the road. And while Hill comes off a nice outing where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work at Tampa Bay, the Over is 16-4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 21 games with Hill following up a Quality Start. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average, .314 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .822 in those games. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 7 of their last 8 meetings in Los Angeles Over the Total. Expect another high-scoring game. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-19 |
Nationals v. Braves -118 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-118 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Washington Nationals (957) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (30-24) has won four of their last five games after their 4-3 win in St. Louis on Sunday. Washington (22-32) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 3-2 loss at home to Miami.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has played their last seven games on the road as they return home for the first time since May 19th. The Braves have won 4 of their last 5 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 8 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Braves have won 5 straight games against fellow NL East foes — and they have won 33 of their last 53 night games in the month of May. They give the ball to Fried who is 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in ten starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.08 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in five starts. Fried also enjoys a 3-0 record in his last three starts with a 2.65 ERA in 17 innings of work. Atlanta has won 5 straight games with Fried pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the +/- 125 price range. Fried faces a light-hitting Nationals team that is hitting only .235 batting average on the road with a .301 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .688. Washington has lost 7 of their last 8 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Washington has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have also lost 6 straight games after winning three of their last four games. The Nats’ bullpen did not allow an earned run in that game yesterday — and they have then lost 14 of their last 16 games after a game when their bullpen did not allow an earned run. Washington goes back on the road where they have lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record. The Nationals have also lost 21 of their last 31 games when playing at night. They counter with Strasburg who is 4-3 with a 3.25 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.29 and 1.02 marks. Washington has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Strasburg making the start against Atlanta. He faces a Braves team that scores 5.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .266 batting average along with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .812. Atlanta has also won 10 of their last 14 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Look for the Braves to defeat Strasburg once again led by a much better group of hitters than what the Nationals currently possess. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Washington Nationals (957) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-19 |
Indians v. Red Sox -1.5 |
Top |
5-12 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (915) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jefry Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Boston (28-25) enters this series coming off a 4-1 win in Houston yesterday. Cleveland (26-26) has lost six of their last seven games after losing at home to Tampa Bay yesterday by a 6-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has not scored more than four runs in their last three games — and they have won 16 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than four runs in three strong contests. Now the Red Sox return back home after playing their last seven games on the road. Boston has won 7 of their last 8 home games when favored in the -151 to -200 price range. The Red Sox have also won 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They give the ball to Porcello who is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one run in 6 innings of work in Toronto. Boston has won 4 straight games with Porcello looking to follow up a Quality Start. After a slow start, the former Cy Young Award winner has found his form as he has a 3-1 record along with a 2.72 ERA over his last six starts. Porcello has also been more effective at home where he owns a 3.41 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in five starts as compared to his 5.76 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .297 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Porcello had a 1.07 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average at home but a 1.27 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average on the road. He should thrive against this Indians team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .193 batting average along with a .294 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .626 over that span. Cleveland is also scoring just 3.5 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .213 batting average, 0.287 On-Base Percentage, and .653 OPS this season. The Indians have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Indians have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have lost 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new series. They counter with Rodriguez who is 1-4 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in six starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.14 and 4.96 moving forward. Rodriguez has also been less effective in day games where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.24 and 1.47 marks. Cleveland has lost 3 of their last 4 games with Rodriguez starting in the month of May. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .271 batting average along with a .339 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .828 over that span. Boston has also won 6 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With the money-line price for the Red Sox over my -150 threshold, I would only consider taking Boston minus the -1.5 Run-Line. While the above team trends do not take into account the -1.5 runs we will be laying, the Red Sox are supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 63% effective over the last five seasons. Boston is scoring 5.2 Runs-Per-Game — and American League teams that average at least 4.9 Runs-Per-Game have covered the 1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the +115 to +160 range) in 45 of the last 71 games when playing on a Monday. 25* MLB ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Boston Red Sox (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (915) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jefry Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-19 |
Braves v. Cardinals -149 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-149 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (962) versus the Atlanta Braves (961) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (26-25) rallied from a 3-2 deficit by scoring four runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to pull out a 6-3 victory yesterday. The loss snapped the Atlanta (29-24) three-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis’ bullpen blew a 2-1 lead in the top of the 7th inning in the game — but the Cardinals have then won 18 of their last 25 games after a game where they a save was blown. This team has been tough to beat at home where they have won 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. St. Louis has also won 28 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. And in their last 19 games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range, the Cardinals have now 15 of these games. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 4-3 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an improvement in his ERA to 4.10 and 3.93 marks respectively based on his current peripheral numbers. Flaherty has not allowed more than three runs in each of his last five starts. The right-hander has also been more effective at home where he owns a 2.48 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in five starts as compared to his ugly 6.20 ERA on the road along with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 2.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home as compared to his 3.67 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP on the road. Flaherty also enjoys a 2.51 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in five starts at night this season. St. Louis has won 4 of their last 5 games with Flaherty pitching at night. He faces a slumping Braves lineup that is hitting only .232 over their last seven games with a .288 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .702 over that span. Atlanta ends their seven-game road trip tonight — and they ave last 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least their previous five games on the road. The Braves have also lost 11 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Atlanta has also lost 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Teheran who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in eleven starts. The sabermetrics call for regression for Teheran with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.61 and 4.59 moving forward this season. The right-hander has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.46 ERA in seven starts as compared to his 2.35 ERA when pitching at home. The Braves have lost 3 of their last 4 road games with Teheran pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals conclude their five-game homestand tonight — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after playing at least their previous three games at home. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (962) versus the Atlanta Braves (961) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-19 |
Yankees v. Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: New York (34-17) has won seven straight games in a row after sweeping yesterday’s double-header — winning Game One by a 7-3 score before winning the nightcap by a 6-5 score. Kansas City (17-34) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road. New York has seen the Over go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Yankees have now seen the Over go 33-11-3 in their last 47 games on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Additionally, New York has played 10 straight games Over the Total on the road as a favorite priced at -125 or higher. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total in the third game of a series. They give the ball to German who is 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.91 and 3.82 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road either as he has a 1.69 ERA with a .177 opponent’s batting average at home but a 3.45 ERA with a .193 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where German had a 5.20 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average at home with all those numbers rising to a 5.98 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 6-0-1 in New York’s last 7 games on the road with German on the hill. And while the Yankees’ bullpen has pitched 14 innings over their last three games, New York has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Royals’ last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has seen the Over go 21-10-3 in their last 34 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 12-5-3 in the Royals’ last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-2 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Duffy who is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.88 and 4.25 moving forward. The left-hander has been less effective at home as well where he owns a 4.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in three starts as compared to his 2.13 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average of .239 on the road. Duffy struggled at home last year as well where he was saddled with a 6.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .276 opponent’s batting average of .276 as compared to his 3.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average at home. The Royals have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Duffy on the hill. And while he comes off a strong effort where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in Los Angeles against the Angels, KC has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when Duffy is pitching after an outing where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces the Bronx Bombers’ offensive juggernaut that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with .301 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .951 over that span. The Yankees are scoring 6.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-0-1 in New York’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams when playing in Kansas City. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-25-19 |
Yankees -144 v. Royals |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (931) versus the Kansas City Royals (932) listing both starting pitchers Chad Green and Jakob Junis. THE SITUATION: New York (33-17) has now won six straight games — as well as ten of their last eleven contests — with their 7-3 victory in the opening game of their double-header today after seeing yesterday’s game postponed due to weather. Kansas City (17-33) has now lost six of their last seven games. Chad Green was set to be the opener in yesterday’s game but will open tonight’s nightcap instead.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees have also won 18 of their last 23 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. They give the ball to Green who is 0-2 with a 12.41 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in 12 1/3 innings of work this season. The right-hander was one of best middle relievers in baseball last year where he enjoyed an 8-3 record along with a 2.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He struck out 94 batters in 75 2/3 innings of work. Green was more effective on the road last season where he owned a 2.35 ERA with a .222 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.65 ERA and .237 opponent’s batting average when at home. He will be supported by a New York bullpen that had a 3.41 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games (entering the day). The Yankees have won 6 straight games on the road — and they have also won 37 of their last 52 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Bronx Bombers have also won 37 of their last 54 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games when favored priced at -100 to -150 range. Kansas City has lost 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have lost 5 straight home games with the Total set at 10 or higher. The Royals have also lost 22 of their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have lost 47 of their last 57 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall. They counter with Lopez who is 0-5 with a 6.04 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in nine starts. Only two of those starts were technical Quality Starts — and he has been less effective at home with a 6.64 ERA along with a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in four starts. The Royals have lost 5 straight games with Lopez facing a team with a winning record. Kansas City has also lost 6 of their last 7 games with Lopez pitching after a loss. Lopez faces a Yankees team that is now 16-7 on the road while beginning the day averaging 6.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .269 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .827 in those road games. New York has also begun the day scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .286 batting average along with a .361 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .907 over that span. The Yankees have won 21 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have 48 of their last 63 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees swept the three-game series between these two teams in April. Kansas City has lost 20 of their last 27 games when playing with at least double-revenge. New York has also won 7 of their last 9 games with the Royals when playing in Kansas City. With Lopez being a bit overvalued when pitching at home and the Yankees still not priced over my -150 threshold for this nightcap, I comfortable relying on Green and the Yankees’ bullpen. Lets attack. 20* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the New York Yankees (931) versus the Kansas City Royals (932) listing both starting pitchers Chad Green and Jakob Junis. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-19 |
Red Sox v. Astros -126 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Brad Peacock and David Price. THE SITUATION: Houston (34-18) won the opening game of this series over Boston (27-24) last night by a 4-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston should build off their momentum as they have won 46 of their last 65 games after a victory — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a win by just one run. And while the Astros managed only four hits last night, they have then won 28 of their last 37 games after a win by at least four runs. Houston is tough to defeat at home in Minute Maid Park where they are 19-6 this season with an average winning margin of +1.7 Runs-Per-Game. The Astros have won 35 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won eight of their last eleven home games against teams with a winning record. Houston has also won 5 of their last 7 home games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range. Additionally, the Astros have won 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give then ball to Peacock who is 5-2 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.89 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in four starts. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he owned a 3.44 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average at home but a 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average on the road. Houston has won 6 of their last 7 home games with Peacock on the hill. Boston’s bullpen pitched two scoreless innings last night in relief of Chris Sale — but they have lost 12 of their last 19 games after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run. This is the Red Sox’s sixth road game in a row — and they have lost 10 of their last 16 games after playing at least their last four games on the road. Boston has also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games when priced in the +/- 125 price range, the Red Sox have lost 6 of these games. They counter with Price who is 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in seven starts this year. Only two of those starts have been at home where Price enjoys a 1.38 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .159. But in his five starts on the road, the left-hander sees his ERA rise to a 4.18 mark along with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252. Price was more effective at home in Fenway Park last year as well where he had a 2.98 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .213 opponent’s batting average but a 4.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .249 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Price pitching on grass — and they have lost 3 straight games with Price pitching at night. The veteran’s decline in velocity betrays his high-profile performances in the postseason last year — increasing his perceived value by the betting public. He faces an Astros lineup that scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .290 batting average along with a .366 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .870.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has won 23 of their last 32 games against teams using a left-handed starting pitcher. The Astros have also won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the money-line on the Houston Astros (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Brad Peacock and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-25-19 |
Mariners v. A's -119 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (918) versus the Seattle Mariners (917) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Yusei Kikuchi. THE SITUATION: Oakland (26-25) has won seven straight games after their 6-2 victory last night with their 6-2 victory. Seattle (23-30) ha lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has won 5 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The A’s have also won 4 straight games against teams with losing record. And in their last 53 home games against teams with a losing record on the road, Oakland has won 40 of these contests. They send out Fiers who is 3-3 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in eleven starts. Fiers has been much better as of late (and we benefited from his no-hitter back on May 7th against the Reds). Over his last five starts, Fiers has a 2.53 with a 0.81 WHIP — and he enjoys a 1.80 ERA along with a 0.70 WHIP over his last three starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.62 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 as compared to his 6.37 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .274 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. The A’s have won 9 of their last 11 home games with Fiers on the hill — and they have also won four of their last five home games with Fiers facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mariners team that has lost 5 road games in a row against right-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has lost 21 of their last 27 games after a loss as they have plummeted in the standings after a fast start to the season — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least four runs. The Mariners have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Seattle has lost 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their last contest. And in their last 24 games after losing four or five of their last six games, the Mariners have lost 19 of these contests. They counter with Kikuchi who is 3-1 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in eleven starts. The deeper sabermetrics for the Japanese left-hander calls for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.29 and 4.20 moving forward this season. Kikuchi has also not been quite as effective on the road where he has a 3.57 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in six starts as compared to his 3.24 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average at home. Seattle has lost 15 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Kikuchi faces a hot-hitting A’s team that is scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .285 batting average along with a .342 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .727 over that span. Kikuchi no longer holds the advantage of unfamiliarity against Oakland either as this will be the third time their hitters have faced the import. Kikuchi faces the A’s lineup back on May 13th where he allowed three home runs in 6 innings of work.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has won a decisive 35 of their last 51 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning seven straight home games against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (918) versus the Seattle Mariners (917) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Yusei Kikuchi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-19 |
Yankees -136 v. Royals |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (915) versus the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers J.A. Happ and Jakob Junis. THE SITUATION: New York (32-17) has won five straight games — as well as nine of their last ten contests — with their 6-5 win on Thursday. Kansas City (17-32) has lost five of their last seven games after a 10-3 loss in St. Louis on Wednesday. This afternoon game is a make-up from last night’s game that was postponed. Chad Green was set to be the opener in that game but Happ takes his spot today with him pitching with his normal four days of rest.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 19 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees have also won a decisive 52 of their last 67 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. New York has also won 17 of their last 22 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. The Bronx Bombers enjoyed a 5-1 lead entering the bottom of the eighth inning before their bullpen allowed four runs which tied the game. New York won the game by scoring in the top of the ninth — and they have won 19 of their last 22 games after a game where their bullpen blew a save. Happ is 3-3 this season in ten starts with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 4.09 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in four starts as compared to his 5.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .277 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Happ had a 2.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .204 batting average on the road as compared to his 4.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average when at home. He was outstanding after being traded from the Blue Jays to the Yankees as he posted a 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in eleven starts for the Bronx Bombers. New York has won 4 straight games with Happ making the start on the road. Happ should have success facing this Royals team that has lost 25 of their last 35 games against left-handed starting pitchers. He will be supported by a New York bullpen that has a 3.41 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games even with their disappointing effort yesterday. The Yankees have won 5 straight games on the road — and they have also won 36 of their last 51 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Bronx Bombers have also won 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games when favored priced at -100 to -150 range. Kansas City (17-32) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least six runs. And while the Royals had won their two previous games before losing on Wednesday, they have lost 8 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. KC returns home where they have lost 4 of their last 5 games — and they have lost 4 straight home games with the Total set at 10 or higher. The Royals have also lost 21 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have lost 46 of their last 56 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall. They counter with Junis who is 3-5 with a 5.69 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 6.08 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in five starts as compared to his 5.34 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average of .279. Kansas City has lost 13 of their last 18 games with Junis facing a team with a winning record — and they have lost seven of their last ten home games in that situation. Junis faces a Yankees team that is 15-7 on the road while scoring 6.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .269 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .827 in those games. New York has also scored 7.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .286 batting average along with a .361 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .907 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees swept the three-game series between these two teams in April. Kansas City has lost 19 of their last 26 games when playing with at least double-revenge. New York has also won 6 of their last 8 games with the Royals when playing in Kansas City. 25* MLB American League Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (915) versus the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers J.A. Happ and Jakob Junis. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-19 |
Nationals v. Mets +1.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 12:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Mets (902) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: New York (23-25) looks to sweep this four-game series this afternoon after winning Game Three of this series yesterday by a 6-1 score. Washington (19-30) has lost four straight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win. The Mets have also won 11 of their last 17 games after winning three straight games against a fellow NL East rival. New York has now won 6 straight games at home in Citi Field — and they have won 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Matz who is 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in eight starts. The left-hander knuckleballer has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.50 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .169 in three starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where Matz had a 3.59 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 at home as compared to his 4.46 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. New York has won 5 straight games at home with Matz on the hill. He faces a Nationals team that is hitting only .230 on the road with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .678. Washington has lost 9 of their last 13 games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have also lost 14 of their last 21 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Washington has lost 4 straight games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 35 games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range, the Nationals have lost 22 of these contests. They counter with Strasburg who is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when pitching on the road. While Strasburg has a 3.21 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP at home, he sees those numbers rise to a 3.45 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP in five starts on the road. Perhaps the bigger problem for Strasburg is that he has not pitched 7 full innings in seven of his ten starts this season. While that is not really a slight on him, it does likely mean that the Nationals bullpen who will be asked to pitch at least 2 innings this afternoon. The Washington bullpen is last in MLB with a 6.89 ERA — and that group has a 10.25 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP over their last seven games. Strasburg and this bullpen will be facing a Mets team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game at home while hitting .253 with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .768. New York has won 5 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has lost 6 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they scored no more than one run. And because they have an On-Base Percentage of .307 for the season, the Nationals fall into a historical “play-against” angle that has been 75% effective since 1997. Road favorites with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher with an On-Base Percentage no higher than .310 have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line (when that prop is priced in the -160 to +115 price range) in 59 of these last 79 situations where these conditions applied. With the Mets’ +1.5 Run-Line priced below my -150 threshold, taking the valuable +1.5 Run-Line (especially against the bad Nats’ bullpen) is the preferable play to taking the Mets as a money-line dog. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the New York Mets (902) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-19 |
Dodgers -118 v. Rays |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-118 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (979) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (980) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Ryan Stanek (as their opener). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (32-17) has won the first two games of this series — as well as six of their last seven games — with their 7-3 victory over the Rays in the opening game of this two-game series. Tampa Bay (27-18) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. The Dodgers have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight games — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games on the road. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won 20 of their last 29 games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range — and this includes them covering the point spread in eight of the last twelve situations where they were playing on the road. They give the ball to Hill who is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in four starts this season after starting the season on the disabled list. The left-hander has been better on the road where he has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in two starts. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .193 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to his 3.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average at home. The Dodgers have won 6 straight road games with Hill on the mound. The veteran comes off a strong effort where he allowed only two hits and no runs while striking out 10 batters on the road in Cincinnati. Los Angeles has won 17 of their last 22 games with Hill following up a Quality Start. He faces a Rays team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .224 batting average along with a .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .644. Tampa Bay has lost 4 of their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rays have lost 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 15 of their last 21 home games in Interleague play when playing a team with a winning record. They counter with Stanek as their “opener” for this contest. Handicapping these increasingly prevalent MLB games where openers are employed is a pain in the proverbial arse — but, the challenge represents an opportunity to find more of an edge against the books (and the betting public in the market that helps set the final line). Stanek is 0-1 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season that needs to be taken with a grain of salt since he will only pitch 1 or 2 innings before being taken out. With these openers, I want to look for red flags regarding that pitcher surrendering a handful of runs rather than being satisfied that the individual in question will pitch an inning or two of scoreless ball. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that Stanek is overachieving given his SIERA and xFIP of 4.03 and 4.38 moving forward. The Rays have lost 7 of their last 11 games with Stanek opening as a money-line underdog priced at +100 to +150. While the initial reports this week suggested that Jalen Beeks would then pitch the middle innings tonight, the fact that the lefty pitched 3 innings last night likely removes that possibility. Instead, I suspect that it will Yonny Chirinos to then take over with his 5-1 record along with a 3.26 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He has pitched 4 2/3 and 4 innings in his last two appearances that were also following up Stanek opening the game. But Chirinos’ SIERA and XFIP project an ERA of 4.24 and 4.34 moving forward. With Stanek and Chirinos both right-handed pitchers, we can put some stock in the Dodgers’ numbers against righties since that will likely consist of at least 5 innings of this game. Led by Cody Bellinger’s career year swinging from the left side of the plate, Los Angeles is clobbering right-handed pitching by averaging 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers (which is roughly applicable for this situation) along with a .261 batting average, .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .815. The Dodgers have won 36 of their last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while both Stanek and Chirinos have WHIPs of 1.07 and 0.91 this season, LA has won 41 of their last 57 games against teams using starting pitchers with a WHIP no higher than 1.15 (and I consider this situation applicable). The Rays’ bullpen is also struggling as of late as they have a 5.35 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP over their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Frankly, successful handicapping consists of discerning what data is relevant and what data is irrelevant as evidence for the unique situation at hand. The emerging tactic of baseball managers to use openers pitching just one or two innings presents a new challenge for those of us that attempt to find value in the battle between starting pitchers. In this instance, the three-headed monster of Stanek, Chirinos, and then the rest of the Rays’ bullpen looks overvalued — and they are facing one of the best teams in baseball in the Dodgers who are not often favored below my -150 money-line price threshold. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (979) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (980) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Ryan Stanek (as their opener). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-19 |
Diamondbacks v. Padres -129 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (954) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: San Diego (25-24) has won the first two games of this series with their 3-2 win over the Diamondbacks yesterday. Arizona (25-24) has now lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego has now 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Padres have also won 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. And in their last 17 games played in the afternoon, San Diego has won 12 of these contests. They give the ball to Lauer who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in nine starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that the left-hander should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.62 and 4.70 moving forward. Lauer has also been much better at home in Petco Park where he owns a 3.04 ERA with a 1.35 WIP in five starts as compared to his 8.24 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP when pitching on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Lauer had a 3.99 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP at home but a 4.73 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP on the road. Lauer has also been quite good in his three day starts this season where he has compiled a 2.70 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .233. The Padres have won 4 of their last 5 games with Lauer facing a team with a winning record. He should fare well against this slumping Diamondbacks team that has is batting only .227 over their last seven games with a .306 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .729. Arizona has lost 5 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more two runs in their last game. Arizona has now lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have also lost 15 of their last 21 third games of a series. They counter with Kelly who is 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in nine starts. The 30-year old rookie right-hander has been tough at home where he has a 2.64 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in five starts — but he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 6.53 ERA with a 1.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 on the road. The sabermetrics are not bullish either with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting regression with his ERA rising to 4.85 and 4.76 marks respectively moving forward. Kelly will be supported by a bullpen that has been rocked on the road with a 4.83 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP this season. The Padres have won 9 of their last 13 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has now lost 6 of their last 7 meetings with San Diego. Look for Lauer to outpitch Kelly this afternoon. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (954) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-19 |
Phillies v. Cubs -126 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (901) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Zach Eflin. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (28-19) has won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 5-4 score. Chicago (27-18) has lost four of the last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has rebounded to win 35 of their last 52 games after a loss. The Cubs have been tough to beat at home in Wrigley Field where they have won 11 of their last 15 games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Chicago has also won 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 17 of their last 23 games when priced as a favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Quintana who is 4-3 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in eight games (nine starts). The deeper sabermetrics suggest that the left-hander is producing numbers that are commensurate of peripheral figures. Quintana has a SIERA projecting an ERA of 3.88 moving forward while his xFIP projects some improvement with it projecting an ERA of 3.55. Quintana has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.36 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in four starts. The Cubs have won 20 of their last 27 home games with Quintana on the hill — and this includes them winning five of these last seven home games with Quintana facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Phillies team that is scoring just 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .222 batting average along with a .303 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .676 over that span. Philadelphia has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Philly has won four straight games with three of those contests decided by just one run with the fourth game resolved by a two-run margin. The Phillies have then lost 36 of their last 54 games after winning three straight games by no more than two runs in each contest. Philadelphia has lost 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range — and they have lost 27 of their last 39 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. The Phillies have also lost a decisive 47 of their last 76 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Eflin who is 5-4 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are bearish with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.19 and 4.44 moving forward. The left-hander has been very good at home where he owns a 2.25 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and .233 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Eflin had a 3.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .237 opponent’s batting average at home but a 5.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .288 opponent’s batting average on the road. Philly has lost 9 of their last 11 road games with Eflin on the hill — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Eflin facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Eflin faces a Cubs lineup that is averaging 5.6 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Look for Quintana to out-pitch Eflin. 10* MLB Phillies-Cubs ESPN Special with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (901) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Zach Eflin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-19 |
Mariners v. Rangers -136 |
|
9-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (966) versus the Seattle Mariners (965) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Mike Leake. THE SITUATION: Texas (21-23) has won four of their last five games with their 5-4 win over the Cardinals yesterday. Seattle (23-26) begins this series coming off a 7-4 win over Minnesota on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas has won three straight games — and they have won 8 of their last 11 home games after winning at least three straight contests. The Rangers have also won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won a decisive 30 of their last 41 home games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range. They give the ball to Minor who is 4-3 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander’s career resurgence actually began last year with his velocity steadily increasing all summer. He also dropped his bases-on-balls last year as he walked batters in just 5.9% of the batters he faced — and while his walk rate has increased to an 8.1% mark so far this season, he has also increased his strikeout mark to 23.9% as compared to his 20.6% clip last year. Minor has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.88 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 in four starts as compared to his 3.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average on the road. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with his numbers last year where he had a 3.45 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .216 at home as opposed to his 5.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Rangers have won 6 of their last 7 home games with Minor facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mariners team that is scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers along with a .220 batting average along with a .304 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .696. Seattle has lost 7 of their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 23 of their last 31 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The Mariners started 18-11 this season — but they have lost fifteen of their last twenty games which is the worst mark in MLB over that span. Seattle has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they have lost 4 straight games — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Leake who is 3-4 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not as optimistic regarding the right-hander’s prospects moving forward with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and 4.53 moving forward. Leake also sees his ERA rise to a 4.15 mark in his five starts on the road. The Mariners have lost 10 of their last 16 road games with Leake pitching as the underdog. Leake also comes off an effort at home against Oakland where he gave up three runs (one earned) in 6 2/3 innings of work last Tuesday. He had been blasted with an 0-4 record along with a 4.89 ERA in his previous four starts — and the A’s have lost 4 straight games with Leake pitching with five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Rangers lineup that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .361 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .909 over that span. Texas is 14-8 at home while scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Texas has won the last two games (on the road) against the Mariners with their last meeting back on April 28th resulting in a 14-1 victory. Seattle has then lost 6 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss where they scored only one run — and they have lost 5 of the last 6 games when playing with revenge from two straight losses at home to their opponent. 20* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (966) versus the Seattle Mariners (965) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-19 |
Cubs v. Nationals OVER 9.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday. we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. THE SITUATION: Washington (18-26) has won three of the last four games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. Chicago (26-16) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have seen the Over go 15-7-1 in their last 23 third games of a series. The Over is a decisive 30-14-3 in their last 47 games at home — and the Over is also 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Washington has also played 36 of their last 57 home games Over the Total when playing at night. They give the ball to Hellickson who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 8.04 and 1.79 marks — and his opponents are hitting .299 when he is pitching in Washington. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Hellickson had a 4.50 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .260 at home as compared to his 3.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average when he was pitching on the road. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 home games with Hellickson on the hill — and Washington has played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Hellickson pitching when priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .274 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .833. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Cubs have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road with the number set in that 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Hendricks who is 3-4 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not nearly as encouraging as those frontline numbers with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.13 and 3.86 respectively moving forward. And while the right-hander has been outstanding at home in Wrigley Field where he has a 0.62 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .180, those numbers skyrocket to a 5.91 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .330 on the road in four starts.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-19 |
Royals v. Angels UNDER 9 |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (925) and the Los Angeles Angels (926) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (22-23) has won the first two games of this series with their 6-3 victory over the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (15-31) has lost four straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels have seen the Under go a decisive 49-23-5 in their last 77 games after a win — and the Under is 37-18-5 in their last 60 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games against teams who are not more than 40% of their games on the road. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 4-3 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in seven starts this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.19 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in two starts. Skaggs was 8-10 last year with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP — but the deeper sabermetrics were bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.79. Skaggs was dominant over his first nineteen starts last season before three separate stints on the disabled list slowed down his campaign. Over those first nineteen starts, Skaggs had a 2.62 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP while registering eleven Quality Starts. His increased reliance on his change-up resulted in a 25.5% strikeout rate over that span presented great promise for what he could accomplish this season. With him making just his third start at home this season, he is an undervalued commodity this afternoon. The Angels have played 4 straight games Under the Total with Skaggs on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games in the afternoon with Skaggs making the start. He faces a Royals team that is scoring 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with just a .243 batting average along with a .301 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .606 over that span. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range — and the Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Duffy who is 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in four starts this season. His one start on the road was successful as he surrendered only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work in Houston. While that is not nearly enough of a sample size to trust, the left-hander was much more effective on the road last season where he had a 3.94 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .256 as compared to his 6.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .276 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Royals’ last 5 road games with Duffy facing a team with a losing record. Duffy had shoulder issues that saw his ERA rise to a 4.88 ERA — but he still has averaged a 3.47 ERA over the last four seasons. He seems to be in better form again this season. He faces an Angels team that has seen the Under go 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is also 5-0-2 in Los Angeles’ last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Angels score only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed pitching while posting a .230 batting average along with a .293 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .693.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is also 3-0-1 in the last 4 contests between these two teams when playing in LA. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (925) and the Los Angeles Angels (926) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-19 |
Twins -129 v. Mariners |
|
18-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (977) versus the Seattle Mariners (978) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Wade LeBlanc. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (29-15) has won four straight games with their 7-1 victory over the Mariners in the second game of this series. Seattle (22-25) has lost six of their last eight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 6 of their last 8 games after a win. The Twins have also won 5 straight games on the road — and they have won 12 straight road games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Berrios who is 6-2 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been a bit more effective on the road with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in four starts as compared to his 1.12 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average at home. Minnesota has won 7 of their last 8 games with Berrios on the hill when favored at least at a -110 price. The Twins have also won 6 of their last 9 road games with Berrios pitching as a favorite priced at least at -125. He faces a Mariners team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .196 batting average along with a .257 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 over that span. Seattle has lost 22 of their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Mariners have lost 17 of their last 22 games after a loss — and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also lost 6 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Mariners are just 9-13 at home this year — and they have lost 12 of their last 16 home games. They counter with LeBlanc who is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in three starts. He is coming off the disabled list after dealing with an oblique injury. The lefty was not as effective at home last year where he had a 3.95 ERA as opposed to his 3.49 ERA when on the road. In his two home starts this season, LeBlanc has a 5.40 ERA with a 1.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .326. LeBlanc’s teams have lost 10 of their last 14 games when he is pitching at home as an underdog priced at least at +125. He faces a Twins team that has won 40 of their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Twins have a powerful offense that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .284 batting average along with a .333 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .858. Minnesota is also scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .289 batting average, .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .864. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (977) versus the Seattle Mariners (978) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Wade LeBlanc. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-19 |
Cubs +129 v. Nationals |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (957) versus the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: Chicago (26-16) has won four of their last five games with their 14-6 win over Washington (18-26) in the first game of this series last night. The Nationals have lost fifteen of their last twenty-two games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 10 of their last 13 games after a victory. The Cubs have also won 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Chicago has won 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Lester who is 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in seven starts this year. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns an 0.89 WHIP with a .164 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 1.32 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average at home. Lester’s disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 2.87 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP on the road as compared to his 3.71 ERA and 1.37 WHIP when pitching at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have won 18 of their last 22 road games with Lester facing a team with a losing record. Chicago has also won 16 of their last 20 games with Lester pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Lester has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts spanning 19 2/3 innings of work while striking out 20 batters during that span. The Cubs have won 13 of their last 15 games when Lester is on the mound after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight games. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests while hitting just .226 with a .283 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .628 over that span. Washington (18-26) has lost 9 of their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Nationals have lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 15 of their last 22 home games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Washington has also lost 17 of their last 25 games played at night. Furthermore, the Nationals have lost 11 of their last 17 home games when priced at least as a -110 favorite. They also have lost 20 of their last 32 games wit hate Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Strasburg who is 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been less effective at home where he has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .237 as compared in four starts as opposed to his 3.5 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .188 opponent’s batting average on the road. Strasburg had a 5.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average on the road. Washington has lost 3 of their last 4 home games with Strasburg on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that has won 20 of their last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .279 batting average along with a .352 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .849. While both these starting pitchers are performing quite well right now, the Cubs superior offense should make the difference in this game which makes them an intriguing underdog tonight. 25* MLB Saturday Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (957) versus the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-17-19 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks -140 |
|
0-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (912) versus the San Francisco Giants (911) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Jeff Samardzija. THE SITUATION: Arizona (24-20) begins this series having won two of their last three games with their 4-1 win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday. San Francisco (18-24) has also won two of their last three games with their 4-3 victory over Toronto on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last game — and they have won 5 straight games after scoring at least ten runs in their last contest. The Diamondbacks have also won 5 straight games after an off-day — and they have won 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new series. Arizona has allowed only five and three bases runners stranded in each of their last two games — and they have then won 4 of their last 5 games after not stranding more than five base runners in two straight games. This team has also won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 5 of their last 8 games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range — and they have won 40 of their last 65 games at home with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Kelly who is 3-4 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in eight starts. The 30-year old right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.20 ERA along with a 1.11 WHIP and .258 opponent’s batting average in four starts. He should thrive against this Giants team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .222 batting average along with a .284 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .665. San Francisco has lost 4 straight games after a win — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games after an off day. The Giants have also lost 36 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. San Fran has also lost 28 of their last 41 games on the road. They counter with Samardzija who is 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts. But while the right-hander has a 2.61 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average at home, those numbers rise to a 4.43 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average in his four starts on the road. The Giants have lost 9 of their last 12 games with Samardzija pitching on the road — and they have also lost 4 of the last 5 games with Samardzija pitching in Chase Field against the Diamondbacks.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona is one of the best power hitting teams in MLB as they lead the league with 64 home runs this season along with 102 doubles — and those numbers far surpass the 41 homers with 78 doubles that the Giants have produced. 10* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (912) versus the San Francisco Giants (911) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-17-19 |
Dodgers -124 v. Reds |
Top |
6-0 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) versus the Cincinnati Reds (906) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (29-16) has won three straight games — and seven of their last nine contests — with their 2-0 victory against San Diego on Wednesday. Cincinnati (20-24) has won their last two games with their 4-2 win over the Cubs on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 17 of their last 25 games after a victory — and they have won 22 of their last 28 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Dodgers have won 23 of their last 30 games are not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than one run in their last game. And Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 59 games after an off day. The Dodgers’ bullpen has not allowed an earned run in three straight contests — and they have then won 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing an earned run in their last game while also winning 19 of their last 28 games after not giving up an earned run in three straight games. They give the ball to Hill who is 0-1 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in three starts this season after starting the season on the disabled list with a knee injury. Hill allowed three runs after the first four batters in his last start which was at home against the Nationals — but he settled down to complete 5 innings without giving up any more runs. The left-hander tends to give up runs in the first-inning before settling down — but he did conclude last season by not allowing a run in the first inning in three of his last four starts on the road. Hill was 11-5 last year with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP while being more effective on the road with a 3.63 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193. When the 39-year old is healthy (and not dealing with blisters), he is a nasty customer for opposing hitters. The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 18 road games with Hill on the mound favored by at least a -125 price. He faces a Cincinnati team that has lost 9 of their last 13 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Reds have also lost 21 of their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cincinnati has lost 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Reds have also lost 18 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have also lost 15 of their last 21 games when priced in the +/- 125 range. Cincinnati stays at home in the Great American Ballpark where they have lost 4 of their last 5 games as the underdog. They counter with DeSclafani who is 2-1 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.80 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP in three starts. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 5.02 ERA with a .267 opponent’s batting average at home which was both a bit worse than his 4.78 ERA and .265 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. DeSclafani entered this season with a mandate to improve his location, especially against left-handed hitters. He had a 19.8% Fly Ball-to-Home Run ratio last year which translated into 24 home runs allowed in 115 innings of work. Tony Disco has surrendered 7 home runs in 41 innings of work so giving up the long ball remains an issue — and the Great American Ballpark has a short right field fence (370 feet in right-center to 325 feet down the line) which explains why he tends to be not as effective in that environment. Cincinnati has lost 4 of their last 5 games at home with DeSclafani on the hill. He faces a powerful Dodgers lineup that is scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .264 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .825. Los Angeles has also won 20 of their last 29 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers swept the three-game series these teams had in mid-April. The Reds have lost a decisive 50 of their last 71 games when playing with at least double-revenge. 25* MLB Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) versus the Cincinnati Reds (906) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-19 |
Cardinals v. Braves -110 |
|
2-10 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (957) while listing both starting pitchers Julio Teheran and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (22-21) has won four of their last five games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 4-0 score. St. Louis (23-20) has now lost four of their last five contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has now won 18 of their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Braves have also won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 third games to a series. They give the ball to Teheran who is 2-4 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been very tough as of late as he has allowed only one earned run in his last two starts spanning 12 innings of work. Both of those starts were on the road — now Teheran returns home to Sun Trust Field where he has a 3.00 ERA. Atlanta has won 5 of their last 7 games at home with Teheran on the hill — and they have won 10 of their last 13 home games with Teheran facing a team with a winning record. The veteran displayed glimpses of a strong 2019 season last year when he closed out his 2018 campaign by generating a 2.97 ERA with a .197 Batting Average for the Balls he allowed Into Play (BABIP) over his last ten starts. Over that span, he saw his Fly Ball-to-Home Run rate drop to just 8% in those final ten starts. He faces a Cardinals team that has lost 8 of their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis is just 9-11 on the road this year — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games away from home. The Cardinals have also lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Wainwright who is 3-3 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.45 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in four starts but he sees those numbers explode to a 5.91 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in his four starts on the road. St. Louis has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Wainwright pitching after a game where they did not score more than two runs. He faces a Braves lineup that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Teheran to out-pitch Wainwright as Atlanta wins this final game of this series. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (957) while listing both starting pitchers Julio Teheran and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-19 |
A's v. Mariners OVER 9 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (973) and the Seattle Mariners (974) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Mike Leake. THE SITUATION: Seattle (21-23) won the opening game of this series over Oakland (19-24) with their 6-5 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 10-2-2 in the Mariners’ last 14 games after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also seen the Over go 6-0-1 in their last 7 games at home. They give the ball to Leake who is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where has a 4.76 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .333 in three starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and .273 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .274 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Leake pitching against a team with a losing record. He faces an A’s team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game on the road. The Over is also 15-5-1 in Oakland’s last 21 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The A’s have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 27 of their last 38 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where the Over is 20-7-1 — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They counter with Anderson who is 4-2 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in eight starts. The left-hander has seen his ERA rise to a 4.30 mark in his four starts on the road. Anderson struggled on the road last year where he was saddled with a 6.06 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .335. The Over is 5-2-1 in the A’s last 8 road games with Anderson facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mariners team that has played 14 of their last 16 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has also seen the Over go 15-4-2 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Expect both starting pitchers to surrender their share of runs in this one. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (973) and the Seattle Mariners (974) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-19 |
Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (24-18) has lost two straight games after their 4-1 loss in Chicago last night against the Cubs. Philadelphia (23-16) has won two straight games with their 6-1 victory in Kansas City yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 11 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Nola who is 3-0 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home this season given his 3.77 ERA in five starts. Nola had a 2.34 ERA at home last year. After a slow start, Nola has looked like the pitcher who concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-three starts. Over his last four starts, Nola has a 2.25 ERA while striking out 26 batters in 24 innings of work over that span. The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total with Nola pitching as a favorite priced at least at -150. The Under is also 18-5-2 in Philadelphia’s last 25 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. He faces a Brewers team that is hitting just .218 on the road with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 — and their slugger, Ryan Braun, is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury. Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss. The Brewers gave up more than three runs for the first time in nine games last night — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. And while Milwaukee’s bullpen has thrown 13 1/3 innings over their last three games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after their pen combined to throw at least 13 innings in their last three games. The Brewers stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Milwaukee has also played 27 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The counter with Peralta who is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in six games. After Peralta was used after an opener in his last outing against Washington where he allowed only three hits and no runs in 5 innings of work, manager Craig Counsell will have him start in the first inning tonight. He has been better on the road where he has a 0.97 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Peralta pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. The Under is 15-5-1 in the Phillies’ last 21 games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 17games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting only .225 over their last seven games with a .312 On-Batting Average and an OPS of .638 over that span. Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* MLB Monday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-13-19 |
Angels v. Twins -138 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-138 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (910) versus the Los Angeles Angels (909) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (25-14) has lost two of their last three games with their 5-3 loss to Detroit yesterday. Los Angeles (19-21) comes off a 5-1 loss at Baltimore yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 43 of their last 62 games at home. The Twins have also won 22 of their last 29 games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Berrios who is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns 1.98 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Berrios had a 3.03 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .200 opponent’s batting average at home as opposed to his 4.85 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average on the road. Minnesota has won a decisive 24 of their last 29 home games with Berrios on the hill. He faces an Angels team that is hitting just .227 on the road with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .669. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 39 of their last 57 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Angels stay on the road where they have lost 19 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Los Angeles has also lost 23 of their last 32 road games as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. They counter with Skaggs who is 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in six starts. But while the left-hander has a 2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average at home, his numbers rise to a 6.38 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and .311 opponent’s batting average in his four starts on the road. The Angels have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Skaggs on the hill. He faces a Twins team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .306 batting average, .375 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .927 during that span. Minnesota has won 4 of their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have also won 37 of their last 52 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has lost 7 of their last 10 meetings with the Twins. Look for Berrios to out-pitch Skaggs as he picks up another win at home. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (910) versus the Los Angeles Angels (909) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-19 |
Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (963) and the Chicago Cubs (964) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Chicago (23-14) has won four of their last five games after their 2-1 victory over Milwaukee (24-17) in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Chicago has also played 4 straight games Under the Total at home in Wrigley Field — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when facing a team with a winning record. They give the ball to Lester who is 2-1 with a 1.41 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in six starts this season. The left-hander has a 0.69 ERA in three starts at home this year. The Cubs have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Lester facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Brewers team that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .216 batting average along with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .691. Milwaukee has also played 6 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Brewers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the third game of a series. Furthermore, the Under is 17-5-1 in Milwaukee’s last 23 games on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 34 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Chacin who is 3-3- with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander was more effective on the road last year where he had a 3.33 ERA along with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 as compared to his 3.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average at home — and the sample sizes this season are still small enough that I give credence to last year’s numbers. Chacin’s road efforts are further confirmed by the Brewers’ team trends as they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total with him making the start on the road. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .229 batting average along with a .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .715 at home at Wrigley Field.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing in Wrigley Field. Expect another low-scoring game tonight. 10* MLB Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (963) and the Chicago Cubs (964) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-19 |
Nationals v. Dodgers -130 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-130 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) versus the Washington Nationals (913) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (26-15) won the opening game of this series last night with their 5-0 victory over Washington (15-23).
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 15 of their last 22 games after a victory — and they have won 22 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than two runs which includes ten straight victories. This team has also won 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. The Dodgers stay at home for the fifth straight game — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after playing at least four straight games at home. Los Angeles has won 35 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won 15 of their last 19 home games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They send out Buehler who is 4-0 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.18 in seven starts this season. The right-hander comes off a very encouraging outing where he hit 99 MPH on his fastball for the first time this season while striking out eight batters in 7 innings of work again the Braves. Buehler has been more effective at home this year where he has a 4.41 ERA but with a low 0.92 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213. Last year, Buehler was filthy at home with a 1.93 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .173. The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 17 home games with Buehler starting as the favorite priced at least at -110. Los Angeles has also won 10 of their last 11 games with Buehler pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .215 batting average along with a .262 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .584 over that span. Washington has lost 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Nationals have also lost 5 straight road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington has lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Washington has also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Scherzer who has a 1-4 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eight starts. At 34-years old, this fastball pitcher entered the season as a likely candidate to endure some regression as he needs to begin relying more on his secondary pitches. In three starts on the road, Scherzer has a 5.66 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .325. The Nationals have lost 4 straight games with Scherzer facing a team with a winning record. And while the three-time Cy Young Award winner comes off a strong start where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work at Milwaukee, Washington has lost 5 straight games with Scherzer looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Dodgers team that is 16-5 at home where they pound the baseball for 6.0 Runs-Per-Game along with a .278 batting average along with a .358 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .853.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Expect the Los Angeles offense to make the difference in this likely pitchers’ duel. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) versus the Washington Nationals (913) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-19 |
Padres v. Rockies -120 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Joey Lucchesi. THE SITUATION: Colorado (18-20) won the opening game of this series last night with their 12-2 victory over San Diego (21-18).
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado has won 13 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 10 runs in their last game against a fellow NL West rival. The Rockies have also lost 5 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Their victory over the Padres last night followed up a 12-11 win over the Giants in their previous game. Colorado has won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 10 runs in two straight games. The Rockies have seen at least fourteen combined runs scored in four straight games — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after playing four games where at least twelve runs were scored. They stay at home where they have won 8 of their last 12 home games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Gray who is 3-3 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has given up fewer runs at home where he has a 3.75 ERA in two starts as compared to his 4.40 ERA. Colorado has won 8 of their last 11 home games with Gray on the hill — and they have won 13 of their last 19 home games with Gray facing a team with a winning record. The Rockies have also won 4 straight games with Gray facing the Padres. San Diego (21-18) has lost 17 of their last 26 games after allowing at least ten runs in their last game. The Padres have scored only five combined runs over their last two games — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring no more than three runs in two straight games. Additionally, San Diego has lost 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 10 to 10.5 point range. They counter with Lucchesi who is 3-2 with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in seven starts this season. But while the right-hander enjoys a 2.89 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average in his five starts at home in the spacious Petco Park, he sees that number rise to an ugly 12.38 ERA with a 2.38 WHIP and .410 opponent’s batting average in two starts on the road. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road with Lucchesi on the hill — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games with him facing the Rockies. He faces a Colorado team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Rockies are swinging hot bats given their recent explosion of runs. Over their last seven games, they are scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .310 batting average along with a .373 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .920 over that span. Colorado also scores 5.9 Runs-Per-Game a home in Coors Field with a .284 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .857 this year.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockies have won all three meetings with the Padres this year with the last two victories being by at least six runs. San Diego has then lost 6 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge two straight losses by at least six runs. 20* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Joey Lucchesi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-19 |
Braves v. Diamondbacks +114 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Kevin Gausman. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (19-20) won the opening game of this series last night over Arizona (22-17) by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after a contest where no more than three combined runs were scored. The Diamondbacks are underdogs in this game because they are sending out their 30-year old rookie right-hander who is 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in seven starts. Kelly has been much better at home where he owns a 2.95 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in three starts as opposed to his 6.53 ERA with a 1.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286. He comes off a disappointing outing where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 4 innings of work at Tampa Bay on Monday. Kelly should be focused to redeem himself tonight after failing to complete five full innings of work — and he is facing a slumping Braves’ lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .253 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .600 over that span. Arizona is tough to beat at home even as underdogs as they have won 13 of their last 20 home games as a money-line dog. The Diamondbacks have also won 14 of their last 21 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing one run or less in their last contest. The Braves have also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Atlanta is now playing their ninth game in a row on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after playing at least their last four games on the road. The Braves have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gausman who is 1-3 with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in seven starts. The right-hander has struggled in his last four starts where he has surrendered fourteen earned runs in 16 innings of work. Gausman has also struggled on the road where he has a 7.15 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .337 in three starts as compared to his 4.01 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and .171 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. Gausman’s teams have lost 4 of their last 5 games on road with him making the start — and his teams have lost 19 of their last 28 road games with him pitching as a favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: Despite winning last night, Atlanta has only won once in their last five meetings with the Diamondbacks. Arizona offers a very intriguing opportunity as a home underdog. 25* MLB National League Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Kevin Gausman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-19 |
Braves v. Diamondbacks -130 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) versus the Atlanta Braves (950) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Arizona (22-16) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series by a 3-2 score in 10 innings. Atlanta (18-20) has now lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 8 of their last 10 games after a victory — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Diamondbacks have also won 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 15 of their last 23 night games. They send out Greinke who is 5-1 with a 3.42 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.53 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in three starts. Greinke was better at home last year as well where he sported a 2.55 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and .208 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .254 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Diamondbacks have won 4 straight home games with Greinke on the hill — and they have won 17 of their last 21 home games with Greinke facing a team with a losing record. Greinke comes off a solid start where he allowed three runs in 6 innings of work in Colorado — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games when Greinke is following up a Quality Start. Arizona has also won 4 of their last 5 games with Greinke facing the Braves. Atlanta has lost 8 of tighter last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. This Braves team is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .220 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .632 over that span. Atlanta has lost 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have also lost 4 straight games on the road — and they have lost 4 straight games on the road against teams with a winning record. Atlanta has also lost 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Teheran who is 2-4 with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in eight starts this year. The right-hander has been hit hard on the road with a 5.74 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP in five starts as compared to his 3.00 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP in three home starts. Teheran did not allow an earned run in his last start which was on the road at Miami — but the Braves have lost 4 straight games with Teheran following up a Quality Start. Atlanta has also lost 25 of their last 34 games with Teheran pitching after a start where he did not allow an earned run.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona is scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game in night games this season. They have also blasted the Braves bullpen for fourteen hits, eleven runs along with 10 bases-on-balls in 10 innings of work this season. 20* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) versus the Atlanta Braves (950) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-10-19 |
Padres +1.5 v. Rockies |
Top |
2-12 |
Loss |
-130 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (857) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (858) listen both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (21-17) enters this series having won three of their last four games with their 3-2 win over the New York Mets on Wednesday. Colorado (17-20) had lost three of their last four games before they defeated San Francisco yesterday by a 12-11 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego left only three runners on base in their victory over the Mets — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after not leaving more than three runners on base in their last game. The Padres have also won 13 of their last 16 games after an off day — and they have won 15 of their last 22 opening games to a new series. Additionally, San Diego has won 9 of their last 13 road games even as a money-line underdog. The Padres are an impressive 11-6 away from Petco Field this season. They give the ball to Lauer who is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in seven starts this season. The left-hander has been a bit more effective on the road this year where he has a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in three starts as compared to his 1.38 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. San Diego has won 4 of their last 5 road games with Lauer on the hill — and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games with Lauer making the start in the opening game of a new series. He faces a Rockies team that has lost 6 of their last 7 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 4 straight games after a victory by two runs or less. The Rockies have also 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games after scoring at least 12 runs in their last contest. Colorado has allowed at least six runs in each of their last six games with their opponents clubbing at least ten runs in four of those contests. The Rockies have lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least seven runs in two straight games. They counter with Marquez who is 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been outstanding away from Coors Field where he enjoys a 1.55 ERA with a 0.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .125 — but he has been saddled with a 5.87 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Marquez had a 2.95 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .203 on the road but a 4.74 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 when pitching at home. Colorado has lost 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 home games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road. Marquez will be supported by a shaky Rockies’ bullpen as of late as that group has a 7.16 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP over their last seven games. The Colorado bullpen also has a 5.62 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP when pitching at home. Marquez and the Rockies’ bullpen faces a Padres team buoyed by the Manny Machado offseason acquisition that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .269 batting average along with a .318 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .818 over that span. San Diego has also won 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won the last four meetings between these two teams after sweeping a two-game series in April. The Padres have won 15 of their last 23 games when playing with double-revenge. San Diego is a live dog in this situation — but I love taking the very valuable +1.5 Run-Line in these situations when that proposition is priced at no higher than -150 (as it is in this situation). 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the San Diego Padres (857) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (858) listen both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-09-19 |
Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 7 |
|
6-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Washington (14-22) enters this series on a four-game losing streak after their 7-3 loss in Milwaukee yesterday. Los Angeles (25-14) has won three straight games after their 9-4 win over the Braves last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 15-7-1 in the Nationals’ last 23 games after a loss. The Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Corbin who is 2-1 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in seven starts. Corbin has been hit hard as of late as he has surrendered nine earned runs in his last two starts. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road this year where he has a 4.00 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in three starts as compared to his 3.51 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .204 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. Corbin’s teams have played 5 straight games Over the Total with him making the start against teams with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles scores a healthy 6.3 Runs-Per-Game when playing at home with a .282 batting average along with a .362 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .864. The Dodgers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Over is 3-0-1 in Los Angeles’ last 4 games at home. They counter with Hill who is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in two starts this season after starting the year on the disabled list. Hill was less effective at home last year where he had a 3.69 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 as compared to his 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .193 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Dodgers have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Hill on the mound against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has also played 19 of their last 25 games Over the Total with Hill pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring 5.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Furthermore, Washington has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set in the 7 range with this being an expected pitching duel, expect a higher scoring game. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-19 |
Reds v. A's UNDER 8.5 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Oakland A’s (980) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Brett Anderson. THE SITUATION: Oakland (16-21) won the opening game of this series last night with their 2-0 victory over Cincinnati (15-21) with Mike Fiers pitching a no-hitter.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Cincinnati has also played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 37-13-3 in the Reds’ last 53 games on the road — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Reds have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing at night. They give the ball to Gray who is 0-4 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.06 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .136 in three starts as compared to his 4.76 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a .262 opponent’s batting average. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Gray was pitching for the Yankees as he had a 3.17 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 as compared to his 6.98 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and .318 opponent’s batting average when pitching at Yankee Stadium. Gray’s teams have played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging for Gray with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.59 and 3.33 moving forward. He faces an A’s team that is scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .231 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .680. Oakland has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The A’s have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total in the month of May — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games on the road. The Under is also 8-1-1 in Oakland’s last 10 home games in Interleague play. They counter with Anderson who is 4-2 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in seven starts. Anderson sees his ERA drop to a 3.21 mark in his three starts at home. Last season, the left-hander had a 2.01 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 at home as compared to his 6.06 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .335 when pitching on the road. He faces a Reds team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .194 batting average, .246 On-Base Percentage, and .596 OPS this season.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Expect another low-scoring game with this Reds team that was no-hit last night. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Oakland A’s (980) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Brett Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-07-19 |
Reds v. A's -124 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (930) versus the Cincinnati Reds (929) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Tyler Mahle. THE SITUATION: Oakland (15-21) has lost two straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 5-3 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Cincinnati (15-20) has won two of their last three games with their 12-4 win over San Francisco yesterday. The A’s host this three-game Interleague series.
REASONS TO TAKE OAKLAND WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The A’s return home for the first time since April 24th where they are 10-6 this season. Oakland has won a decisive 42 of their last 61 games at home — and they have also won 19 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the A’s have won 28 of their last 40 home games after losing three of their last four games. Oakland has also won 7 of their last 9 home games in Interleague play — and they have won 5 of their last 6 Interleague games against teams with a losing record. They send out Fiers who is 2-3 with a 6.81 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 5.40 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .268 in four starts as compared to his ugly 8.20 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and .325 opponent’s batting average in four road starts. Fiers enjoyed a dominant 2.81 ERA at home for the A’s last year along with a 1.16 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average which was far better than his 4.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average on the road. Fiers struggled during a three-start stretch in April but has shown more of his 2018 form in his last two starts where he has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. Oakland has won 17 of their last 21 home games with Fiers on the hill — and this includes them winning eight of these last ten situations. Fiers should fare well against this Reds team that is just 7-13 on the road while scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game while batting .202 with a .259 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .617. Cincinnati has lost 4 straight games after a win — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Now the Reds go back on the road where they have lost 37 of their last 51 games going back to last season. They also have lost 24 of their last 35 road games when listed in the +/- 125 money-line price range. Cincinnati has lost 4 straight games in Interleague play against teams with a losing record. They counter with Mahle who is 0-4 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in six starts this season. Five of his starts have been on the road where he has been saddled with a 4.50 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304. Mahle had a 1.69 WHIP with a .291 opponent’s batting average on the road last year as compared to his 1.49 WHIP and .275 opponent’s batting average when pitchman at home. The Reds have lost 7 straight games on the road with Mahle making the start.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s are a bit undervalued right now after playing their last nine games on the road. They usually step up to support Fiers who is as close to an ace as this team has. 20* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (930) versus the Cincinnati Reds (929) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Tyler Mahle. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-05-19 |
Cardinals v. Cubs -120 |
|
5-13 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (914) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (913) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Chicago (18-12) has won the first two games of this series with their 6-5 victory over St. Louis (20-13) last night. The Cubs host the final game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE CHICAGO WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Cubbies have won six games in a row — and they able won 17 of their last 24 games after a victory by just one run over a Central Division rival. Chicago has also won 7 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Furthermore, the Cubs have won 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after giving up at least five runs in their last game. Chicago is 9-4 so far at home in Wrigley Field this season — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home. They also have won 19 of their last 28 home games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They give the ball to Quintana who is 3-1 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in five starts this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.29 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .163 in two starts as compared to his 5.03 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296. The Cubs have won a decisive 20 of their last 27 home games with Quintana on the hill — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 home games with Quintana pitching at home. Quintana takes the hill again for the first time since last Sunday — and Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 games when he is pitching with six days of rest. He should fare well against this Cardinals team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting just .240 batting average along with a .311 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .637 in those games. St. Louis has lost three straight games — and while they are 12-4 at home this season, they are just 8-9 away from home. The Cardinals has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. This is St. Louis’ seventh straight game on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after playing their last three games on the road. They counter with Wainwright who is 3-2 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in six starts. The right-hander has a 3.00 ERA in three starts at home — but he sees that number rise to a 4.41 mark on the road. He faces a stiff test against this Cubs team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .256 batting average along with a .336 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .847 over that span. Chicago has won 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have won 5 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have lost 5 of their last 6 games when playing the Cubs in Wrigley Field. Look for Quintana to out-pitch Wainwright tonight. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (914) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (913) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-19 |
Twins v. Yankees OVER 8.5 |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Jake Odorizzi and J.A. Happ. THE SITUATION: New York (18-13) won the opening game of this series last night with their 6-3 victory over Minnesota (19-11).
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, while New York has allowed just three runs in three straight games, they have then played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in three straight contests. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall. They give the ball to Happ who is 1-2 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in six starts this season. The left-hander has been outstanding when pitching away from Yankee Stadium this year with his 1.96 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in three starts — but he has been hit hard with an 8.16 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .328 in three starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where Happ had a 2.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .204 opponent’s batting average at home but a 4.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average when on the road in his stints with Toronto and the Yankees. New York has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Happ on the hill. He faces a Minnesota team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road this season with a .272 batting average along with a .322 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .841. The Twins have also played 5 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Odorizzi who is 3-2 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP this year. The right-hander has been tough at home where he has a 0.96 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .167 in three starts — but he has been crushed with a 7.36 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .268 in his two road starts. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Odorizzi on the hill. Odorizzi is not reliable to pitch the third time through a lineup — last year, he suffered from an 11.44 ERA after pitching through the lineup twice. The Twins’ bullpen will most likely play a major role in this game — and that group has a 5.40 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP on the road this season. He faces a Bronx Bombers team that is banging out 6.2 Runs-Per-Game in day games this season despite all their injuries along with a .281 batting average, .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .864. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing in Yankee Stadium. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon O/U Matinee with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Jake Odorizzi and J.A. Happ. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-19 |
Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 9 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (957) and the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (20-10) has won five straight games with their 5-1 victory over the Nationals yesterday. Washington (12-17) has now lost their last three games as they host this afternoon Getaway Game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. St. Louis has also seen the Over go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They give the ball to Hudson who is 2-1 with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in five starts this season. Two of these starts were on the road where he currently sees his ERA and WHIP rise to unseemly 9.35 and 2.42 marks — and opponents are hitting .366 against him on the road. Hudson pitched 27 1/3 innings late last season in his September call-up — but while he did not allow an earned run in 14 1/3 innings at home, he had a 5.54 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP in his 13 innings on the road. The Over is also 13-6-1 in the Cards’ last 20 games on the road. He now faces a Nationals team that is scoring a healthy 5.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 35-17-2 in the Nationals’ last 54 games at home — and the Over is also 16-5-2 in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Strasburg who is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in six starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.74 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .233 as compared to his 2.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Strasburg had a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 but those numbers skyrocketed to a 5.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 when pitching at home. The Over is 37-12-2 in the Nationals’ last 51 games at home with Strasburg on the hill. Strasburg does come off a strong effort where he allowed only two earned runs in 7 innings of work last Saturday against San Diego — but Washington has then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Strasburg looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starters while posting a .275 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .806 against right-handers. The Over is 11-5-1 in St. Louis’ last 17 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a higher scoring game between two of the best offenses in the National League. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon O/U Matinee with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (957) and the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-19 |
Rockies v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Milwaukee Brewers (958) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Jhoulys Chacin. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (16-14) won the opening game of this series yesterday with their 5-1 victory over Colorado (13-16).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 15-7-1 in the Brewers’ last 23 games after a win. This team may be without the reigning National League Most Valuable Player who is listed as questionable after he tweaked his back yesterday in the win. Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home. They give the ball to Chacin who is 2-3 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in six starts this year. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.50 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in four starts — but those numbers improve in his two starts at home where he owns a 4.35 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .216. Those home numbers are similar to his 3.79 ERA at home with a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242. The Brewers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Chacin pitching at home. He should fare well against this Rockies team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .209 batting average along with a .254 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .613. Colorado has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. Colorado has seen the Under go 35-14-2 in their last 51 games after a loss — and the Under is 21-6-3 in their last 30 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Under is also 23-9-3 in the Rockies’ last 35 games on the road — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Marquez who is 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.05 WHIp in six starts this season. The right-hander has been filthy when pitching away from home as he has surrendered only one earned run on the road which has translated into a 0.41 ERA along with a 0.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .063 on three starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where Marquez had a 4.74 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 at home but a 2.95 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .203 on the road. The Under is 18-7-4 in Colorado’s last 29 road games with Marquez on the hill. The Rockies have also played 5 straight games Under the Total with Marquez facing the Brewers. He faces a Milwaukee team that is hitting only .225 over their last seven games with a .292 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .757.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 19 of their last 26 meetings Under the Total — and this includes them playing 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Milwaukee. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Milwaukee Brewers (958) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Jhoulys Chacin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-19 |
Indians v. Astros -107 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (978) versus the Cleveland Indians (977) listen both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Carlos Carrasco. THE SITUATION: Houston (16-11) won the third game of this series yesterday by a 4-3 score over Cleveland (15-11).
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won a decisive 58 of their last 75 games after a victory — and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games after a win by two runs or less. The Astros have also won 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Houston is 9-3 at home this season — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Miley who is 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in five starts this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.31 ERA along with a 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .167 in two starts as compared to his 4.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average in three starts on the road. Miley’s teams have won 14 of their last 19 games with Miley pitching at night. Miley’s teams have also won 14 of their last 21 games when he is pitching as a money-line priced in the -110 to -150 price range. He faces an Indians team that has lost 14 of their last 20 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game on the road while hitting just .201 batting average along with a .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .619. They counter with Carrasco who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in five starts this year. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 9.00 ERA with a 1.92 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .365 in three starts as opposed to his 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s average of .229 in his first two home starts. The Indians have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Carrasco on the hill — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Carrasco pitching against a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Miley is an underrated starting pitcher who had a 2.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP for the Brewers last year — and he did not allow more than three earned runs in any of sixteen starts last season. The better Astros offense should make the difference tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Houston Astros (978) versus the Cleveland Indians (977) listen both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Carlos Carrasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Rockies v. Braves UNDER 9 |
Top |
8-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. THE SITUATION: Colorado (11-14) enters this series having won eight of their last ten games with their 9-1 victory over Washington on Wednesday. Atlanta (12-11) has lost two of their last three games after a 4-2 loss at Cincinnati yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Under is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after an off day. Now this team goes on the road where the Under is 22-6-3 in their last 31 games. They give the ball to Senzatela who is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in two starts this season — and he has pitched at least 6 innings in both those starts. The 24-year old right-hander was 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP last season — but he was more effective away from Coors Field where he saw his ERA and WHIP drop to 4.01 and 1.11 marks while posting an impressive .220 opponent’s batting average. In his one start on the road this year, Senzatela allowed only 1 earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work at San Diego. Colorado has played 8 straight road games Under the Total with Senzatela on the hill. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss. Now the Braves return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Fried who has been outstanding so far this season with a 3-0 record along with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in four starts. Two of those starts were at home where he sported a 0.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average when on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where the left-hander had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 15 innings at home as compared to his 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 18 2/3 innings on the road. I pay close attention to sample sizes — but I feel comfortable with Fried’s career 2.80 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 34 2/3 innings of work when pitching at his Sun Trust Field in Atlanta. Fried faces a Rockies team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .199 batting average along with a .242 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .558 this year. The Under is 40-19-2 in Colorado’s last 61 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 19-7-2 in their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockies are looking to avenge a 7-1 loss at home as a small money-line favorite against the Braves back on April 9th. Colorado has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss at home. Lastly, these two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in Atlanta Under the Total. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-19 |
Yankees -108 v. Angels |
|
5-11 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (913) versus the Los Angeles Angels (914) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Trevor Cahill. THE SITUATION: New York (14-10) has won six games in a row after they won Game Three of this series last night by a 6-5 score over Los Angels (9-16).
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONEY-LINE ON THE YANKEES: The Bronx Bombers are a M*A*S*H unit right now with their lineup ravaged with injuries — and this is why the price on them remains low tonight despite their winning streak. Yet despite missing Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and a host of other sluggers, the Yankees are still scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last five games. New York is also averaging 6.4 Runs-Per-Game when playing on the road with a .261 batting average, .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .847 which are all gaudy numbers in the modern MLB where batters are encouraged to swing for the fences. The Yankees have won 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also won 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. New York has also won 7 of their last 10 games on the road. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander had a 12-6 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 27 starts last year — and he was more effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.47 and 0.98 marks while limiting hitters to a .212 opponent’s batting average. Tanaka’s deeper sabermetrics were also very encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.50 and 3.42 based off his 2018 peripheral numbers. This is just Tanaka’s second start on the road this year after an encouraging first start away from home in Houston where he allowed only one earned run and just three hits in 6 innings of work. The Yankees have won 16 of their last 21 road games with Tanaka on the hill. Los Angeles has lost three straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests. The Angels have lost 7 of their last 8 games after suffering a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Los Angeles has also lost 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have lost 20 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road (and the Bronx Bombers are 6-3 on the road). They counter with Cahill who is 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP after allowing 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work in his last start at home against Seattle. The right-hander had a 7-4 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP last season — but his SIERA and xFIP of 4.06 and 3.80 suggested that he overachieved. The Angels have lost 14 of their last 20 games when priced in the +/- 125 price range — and Cahill’s teams have lost four of their last five games when priced in the +/- 125 price range.
FINAL TAKE: Tanaka’s consistent reliability when pitching away from Yankee Stadium — I trust the limited starting pitchers’ sample sizes in this game as they complement the data from last year with these two starting pitchers also pitching for their current teams. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Yankees (913) versus the Los Angeles Angels (914) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Trevor Cahill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-19 |
Braves v. Indians OVER 8 |
Top |
11-5 |
Win
|
101 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (10-10) snapped a four-game losing streak yesterday by defeating Cleveland (12-8) by an 8-7 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a win. The Atlanta bullpen has been busy as of late as they have pitched 15 combined innings over their last three games — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after pitching at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. They send out Fried who is 2-0 with an 0.92 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP so far this season. While those numbers look great, the fact that the left-hander is striking out only 5.5 batters per 9 innings of work is of concern. Both his SIERA and xFIP project significant regression with those numbers projecting an ERA of 4.15 and 3.80 moving forward. Fried was more effective at home last year where he had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.287 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 — but those numbers rose to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 when pitching on the road. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Fried on the hill. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Over is 22-7-2 in the Braves’ last 31 games against teams with a winning record. Fried faces an Indians team that scores 5.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Cleveland (12-8) has played 4 of their last 5 games in Interleague play Over the Total. The Indians’ bullpen has been roughed up as of late after they blew the save yesterday by surrendering 6 runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. Cleveland’s pen has an 8.25 ERA over their last five games — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games when their bullpen has a 6.50 ERA or worse over their last five contests. They counter with Bieber who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP so far this season. But his SIERA and xFIP project a decline in those numbers as they project an ERA of 3.78 and 3.99 respectively moving forward. Bieber was not as effective when pitching at home last year where he had a 5.88 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .328 as compared to his 3.56 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 when on the road. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Bieber on the bump after a game where they allowed at least five runs. Cleveland has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They face a hot Braves lineup that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last five games with a .261 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .353 and an OPS of .819. Atlanta also scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 15-3-4 in the Indians’ last 22 home games when facing left-handed starting pitchers. The sample size regarding the number of starts a pitcher has made with his team is an important factor before I feel comfortable investing in April baseball action. With both these pitchers with their same team from last year — and with both with a growing set of 2019 data that says they are overachieving relative to their frontline ERA and WHIP numbers — let’s attack this early season opportunity. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-19 |
Giants v. Pirates -131 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) versus the San Francisco Giants (955) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-6) won the opening game of this series last night with their 4-1 victory over the Giants (8-13).
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh has won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. The Pirates have also won 5 straight games at home — and they have won 21 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the toad. They give the ball to their ace in Taillon who is 0-2 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in four starts this season. The right-hander comes off a start where he allowed three runs in 6 innings of work at Washington. This is Taillon’s just second start at home this year after allowing only one earned run in 7 innings of work against St. Louis. I am comfortable looking at Taillon’s numbers last year since he was wearing a Pirates’ uniform (as opposed to many of the starting pitchers in MLB who moved teams in the offseason). Taillon had a 14-10 record last year with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP — and he had a 1.13 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .242 at home as compared to his 1.21 WHIP and .249 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 6 home games with Taillon on the hill. He should thrive against this Giants team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game while batting .190 with a .249 On-Base Percentage and an opponent’s OPS of .560 this season when facing right-handed pitchers. San Francisco has lost 20 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Giants have lost 24 of their last 33 games after a loss — and they have also lost 24 of their last 31 games on the road. They counter with Holland who is 1-2 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season after allowing four earned runs in 6 innings of work in his last start against the Rockies. I am comfortable using Holland’s numbers last year as well since he was the San Fran rotation where he finished with a 7-9 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. But the left-handed saw those numbers rise to a 3.63 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP when he was pitching on the road. The Giants have lost 4 straight road games with Holland facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Pirates team that has won 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: It has been a slow start to our MLB campaign as I have just not trusted the data regarding the slate of starting pitching — or, when I do find the sample size data large enough and relevant, the evidence was conflicted. This is a strong play that has finally popped. 25* MLB Saturday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) versus the San Francisco Giants (955) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-09-19 |
Rangers v. Diamondbacks -143 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (926) versus the Texas Rangers (925) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Mike Minor. Arizona (5-5) begins this Interleague series looking to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to Boston on Sunday. Texas (5-5) has lost their last three games after they lost to the Angels in Los Angeles by a 7-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has bounced-back to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. The Diamondbacks have also won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 16 of their last 23 home games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Greinke who is 1-1 with a 9.31 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in two starts this season. This will be the veteran right-hander’s first start at home this year. Greinke was 15-11 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP last season while being more effective at home with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP along with a .208 opponent’s batting average at home. The Diamondbacks have won a decisive 25 of their last 37 home games with Greinke on the hill. He should fare well against this Rangers team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .223 batting average along with a .240 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .689 over that span. They have also lost 7 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Texas has lost 21 of their last 28 games on the road. The Rangers have also lost 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Minor who is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in two starts this season. I am comfortable betting against Minor in this spot because he made 28 starts for the Rangers last year — so there is a sufficient sample size from which to evaluate data. The left-hander was 12-8 last year with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP — but his ERA and WHIP rose to 5.14 and 1.21 marks when pitching on the road. Furthermore, Minor’s teams have lost 9 straight games when he was making the start on the road in Interleave play. He is facing a Diamondbacks lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their three home games this season. Arizona also enjoys a .309 batting average with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .859 against left-handed pitching this season.
FINAL TAKE: Greinke’s early numbers don’t bother me — he should pitch his best game of the season in his first start at Chase Field tonight. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (926) versus the Texas Rangers (925) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Mike Minor. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-08-19 |
Braves v. Rockies UNDER 11 |
|
8-6 |
Loss |
-125 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (957) and the Colorado Rockies (958). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (5-4) enters this series coming off a 4-3 victory over Miami yesterday. Colorado (3-7) has lost three straight games after their 12-6 loss last night to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total. Atlanta has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They send out Teheran who is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in two starts this season. The right-hander was 9-9 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP last season. Teheran has been more effective when pitching away from the news Sun Trust Park in Atlanta — he had a 3.96 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 at home last year but all those numbers improved to a 3.92 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .185 when he was pitching on the road. The Braves have played 4 straight games Under the Total with Teheran pitching with four days rest. Atlanta has also played 5 straight games Under the Total with Teheran facing the Rockies. Colorado is struggling with their bats early on this season. They are scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .216 batting average along with a .277 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .601. The Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. Colorado has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 42-19-1 in the Rockies’ last 62 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Freeland who is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in two starts so far this season. Freeland has a 17-7 record last year with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The left-hander was more effective at home in Coors Field where he enjoyed a 2.40 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponents’ batting average of just .228. Colorado has played 26 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with Freeland on the hill — and they have played fifteen of their last seventeen home games with him facing a team with a winning record. The Braves are scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road this year with a .221 batting average along with a .333 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .691. Atlanta has also played 6 straight road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is set in the 10.5 to 11 range with this game being played in the hitter-friendly Coors Field — but this should be a lower scoring game. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (957) and the Colorado Rockies (958). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-19 |
Angels v. Mariners -118 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (972) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels (971) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Trevor Cahill. Seattle (6-1) won the opening game of this series last night by a 6-3 score. They send out Gonzales who is 2-0 so far this season with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in two starts due to the Mariners early March start in Japan. Los Angeles (1-4) counters with Cahill who lost his first start of the year in Oakland where he allowed four earned runs in 6 innings of work.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle has won 5 of their last 6 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Mariners have also won 7 of their last 8 games at home going back to last season. Gonzales was 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP last season — but he was outstanding in his first 21 starts before it looks like he began to tire. His 166 2/3 innings last year were just 43 innings less than the number of innings he had pitched in the last three seasons combined. Gonzales added a cutter and increased his reliance on his curveball to see better results — and his Walk Rate dropped to just 4.7%. Gonzales was more effective at home last year where he had a 3.63 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are also bullish on the 27-year old left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.81 and 3.59 respectively given his deeper peripherals. Seattle has won 9 of their last 10 second games to a new series with Gonzales on the hill. He should pitch well against this Angels team that has lost 15 of their last 22 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has lost 7 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have lost 38 of their last 55 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They stay on the road where they have lost 9 of their last 10 games — and they have lost 13 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Cahill was 7-4 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP last year for the Oakland A’s — but his ERA skyrocketed to a 6.41 mark with a 1.58 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of 2.85 when he pitched on the road. He faces a red-hot Mariners lineup that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game so far this season. Seattle has also won 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both the Mariners and Gonzales are a bit undervalued at this money-line price that is in the -120 range. Let’s attack. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Seattle Mariners (972) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels (971) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Trevor Cahill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-19 |
Braves v. Phillies -142 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (964) versus the Atlanta Braves (963) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Kyle Wright. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-0) has won the opening two games of this series with their 8-6 victory over the Braves yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss going back to last season. They also have lost 17 of their last 22 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have also lost 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They send out Wright who is in their starting rotation to begin the season only because of the pair of injuries to regular starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman. Wright did not have a good spring training as he was hit hard for a 7.02 ERA in 16 2/3 innings of work. Wright produced an unspectacular 3.70 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP in 109 1/3 innings of work in Double-A last year before showing promise with a 2-1 record along with a 2.51 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in the 28 2/3 innings he pitched when he was promoted to Triple-A. He will be facing a Phillies team that has won 4 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has also lost 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Philadelphia has won 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. They counter with Jake Arrieta who was 10-11 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP last year. While there are concerns regarding the veterans declining strikeout rate in each of the last four seasons, he remains a solid starting pitcher who will eat up innings. Arrieta was good at home last year where he had a 3.64 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 as compared to his 4.25 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .269 when pitching on the road. He should pitch well against this Braves team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Phillies have won 4 straight games at home — and they have also won 14 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they are only two games in their Bryce Harper era.
FINAL TAKE: With the Phillies priced just below the -150 range, this is a good situation to bet-against a young starting pitcher in Wright who does not appear ready for this moment. Philadelphia is a significant threat to win the NL East with the Harper signing. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (964) versus the Atlanta Braves (963) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Kyle Wright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Red Sox +145 v. Dodgers |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
145 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (909) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (118-57) seized a 3-1 lead in the World Series last night with their come-from-behind 9-6 victory over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: While the Dodgers got a reprieve late Friday night when they survived the 18-inning marathon in Game Three, last night’s blown lead looks likely to demoralize Los Angeles (100-78) with the very uphill task of having to win three straight games against this Red Sox machine that has now won 118 games this season as well as seven of their last eight in these playoffs. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And while their bullpen allowed eight of the nine runs they surrendered last night, the Dodgers have then lost 9 of their last 13 games after a game where their bullpen allowed at least six earned runs. Los Angeles is also getting used to losing in the World Series as they have now lost 7 of their last 11 games in the Fall Classic going back to last year. They put their faith in their ace Kershaw who only pitched 4 innings while giving up 5 earned runs in his Game One start against the Red Sox in the World Series. The lefty has a 4.60 ERA in the playoffs in his career — and he will be facing a Red Sox team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs. Boston has now won 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also won 11 of their last 18 road games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. The Red Sox have also won 19 of their last 24 games in Interleague play — and they have won 23 of their last 22 games on the road in a National League park. Furthermore, Boston has won 15 of their last 18 games in the World Series — and this includes them winning seven of their last nine games in the Fall Classic on the road. They give the ball to Price who has a 1.42 ERA along with 0.79 WHIP in his last three appearances in these playoffs spanning 12 2/3 innings — and he has struck out 14 batters over that span. Boston has won 26 of their last 34 games with Price on the hill coming off a Quality Start in his last starting opportunity.
FINAL TAKE: I think the heart, resolve and will of this Boston team ensures that they win the World Series tonight. With Kershaw on the hill, I think the entire stadium will be waiting for something bad to happen once again to this Dodgers team with a mountain of postseason disappointments with Kershaw on the hill. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (909) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-102 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (118-57) seized a 3-1 lead in the World Series last night with their come-from-behind 9-6 victory over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while Boston has just a .219 batting average over their last five games in these playoffs, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a five-game span where they did not have better than a .225 batting average clip. This team is still scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs even after that recent slide. They give the ball to Price who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in thirty regular season starts. The left-hander was much better at home in Fenway Park where he had a 2.98 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 — but those numbers spike to a 4.31 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .249 when pitching on the road. Price also had a 3.89 ERA in his twenty-one regular season starts at night. Additionally, many of Price’s notorious struggles in the playoffs have been on the road given his career 6.02 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273. Los Angeles (100-78) had their bullpen surrender 8 runs in just three innings of work after that group logged-in eleven innings in Friday night’s 18 inning marathon. The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 36 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Los Angeles has also now played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against American League teams with a winning record. They counter with their ace Kershaw who only pitched 4 innings while giving up 5 earned runs in his Game One start against the Red Sox in the World Series. The lefty has a 4.60 ERA in the playoffs in his career — and the Dodgers have played 7 of their last 11 games in the playoffs Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers playing with desperation — but also a tired bullpen — expect another high-scoring game. Price is pitching on short rest — and the Boston bullpen will be looking forward to (at least) one day off tomorrow. 25* MLB Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
Red Sox +1.5 v. Dodgers |
Top |
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (907) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-77) survived last night’s marathon contest that needed 18 innings to resolve before they scored to pull out a 3-2 victory. They are now down 2-1 in this series but avoided tonight’s game being a potential elimination game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston had now won six straight games in these playoffs before losing last night. The Red Sox have bounced-back to win 34 of their last 50 games after a loss. They also have won 11 of their last 12 fourth games of a series. And they have won 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Recovering from last night’s physical and mental exhaustion will be a challenge for both teams tonight. Boston has won 14 of their last 17 games in the World Series which helps give them institutional knowledge regarding how to handle this situation. Their bullpen logged in 12 1/3 innings last night — but they have won 35 of their last 46 games after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 9 innings. Furthermore, the Red Sox have won 18 of their last 23 games against National League opponents. And perhaps most stunning, this Boston team has pulled the upset to win 12 of their last 18 games on the road when priced as an underdog at least at +150. After indications were that manager Alex Cora was going to tap Drew Pomeranz as tonight’s starting pitcher, he made the wise decision to instead give the ball to Rodriguez despite him pitching 1/3 of an inning last night. I just don’t see that as a big deal — and David Price was quite effective making a start after making an appearance out of the bullpen the night before in their last series against the Astros. Rodriguez enjoyed a solid season with a 13-5 record with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The left-hander was more effective on the road where he had a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 as compared to his 1.32 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 11 road games with Rodriguez on the hill. He should fare well against this slumping Dodgers’ team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs with a .208 batting average along with a .297 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Los Angeles may also get psyched out with a facing another left-hander starting pitcher since it will likely compel manager Dave Roberts to bench his left-handed bats of Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, and last night’s hero Max Muncy. The Dodgers have still lost 4 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Hill who was 11-5 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP during the regular season. The veteran left-hander was not as effective at home where he saw his ERA rise to a 3.69 mark with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 as compared to his 3.63 ERA when on the road with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193. The Red Sox have won 5 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The value of the Run-Line was in full display last night as it bought us insurance for the Dodgers’ eventual one-run victory. Like with Game Three, I consider this game a toss-up. With the price of the Run-Line under my -150 price threshold even after the pitching change to Rodriguez, what was likely a pass on the side play with Pomeranz now becomes a strong play on the Red Sox with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Saturday Night Run-Line Special Feature with the Boston Red Sox (907) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-18 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (905) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Boston (117-56) seized a 2-0 lead in the World Series on Wednesday with their 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. The series moves to Los Angeles for potentially three-weekend games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles (99-77) has seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a loss — and they have also played 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and the Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against National League teams with a winning record. The Under is also 8-1-2 in LA’s last 11 home games in the playoffs. They send out Buehler who was 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts in the regular season. The rookie right-hander has been very tough at home where he sported a 2.12 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 in eleven home starts. The Under is 11-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 13 home games with Buehler on the hill. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Buehler pitching and favored with at least a -150 price. Boston has seen the Under go 13-5-2 in their last 20 games against an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games in Interleague play — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the World Series. They give the ball to Porcello who was 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three regular season starts. The right-hander saw his ERA improve to a 3.86 mark in eighteen starts. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Porcello facing a team with a winning record. Porcello is making his first start since October 17th — and Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when Porcello is starting with at least eight days of rest between starts. Much has been made about the Dodgers now getting to get their trio of left-handed batters in Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson into the lineup now that the Red Sox are not sending a left-handed starting pitcher out on the hill. While those three sluggers combined to club 85 home runs this season, Los Angeles is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season with a .249 batting average along with a .326 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .757 which are numbers not significantly better than their 4.8 Runs-Per-Game scoring margin for the season along with a .248 batting average, .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .749. The Under is 4-0-2 in the Dodgers’ last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With this game being played in the National League park, there will not be a designated hitter in either lineup. That is a small factor that will help this game finish below the number. 10* MLB Boston-LA Dodgers Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (905) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-18 |
Red Sox +1.5 v. Dodgers |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Boston (117-56) seized a 2-0 lead in the World Series on Wednesday with their 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. The series moves to Los Angeles for potentially three-weekend games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston has now won six straight games in these playoffs — and they have also won 5 straight games on the road. The Red Sox have also won 22 of their last 30 road games in Interleague play — and they have won nine of their last ten road games against National League teams with a winning record. Boston has also won 14 of their last 16 games in the World Series. They give the ball to Porcello who was 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three regular season starts. The right-hander saw his ERA improve to a 3.86 mark in eighteen starts. The Red Sox have won 4 of the last 5 games on the road with Porcello on the hill. Boston has also won 15 of their last 16 games with Porcello on the hill in Interleague play. Much has been made about the Dodgers now getting to get their trio of left-handed batters in Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson into the lineup now that the Red Sox are not sending a left-handed starting pitcher out on the hill. While those three sluggers combined to club 85 home runs this season, Los Angeles (99-77) is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season with a .249 batting average along with a .326 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .757 which are numbers not significantly better than their 4.8 Runs-Per-Game scoring margin for the season along with a .248 batting average, .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .749. The Dodgers have now lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Dodgers have also lost 5 straight games after an off-day. And in their last 5 games in the World Series going back to last year, this team has lost 4 of these contests. They will be placing their hopes on Buehler who was 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts in the regular season. But the rookie right-hander is 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA along with a 2.08 WHIP in three starts this postseason. He has not managed a Quality Start in those three starts either as he did not complete 5 innings of work one good outing in the NLCS against the Brewers. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Boston has won a decisive 46 of their last 64 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: I have been patiently watching the money-line movement on this game. I am seeing the prices drop to -150 for the Red Sox plus the +1.5 Run-Line in enough betting locations to make me comfortable in endorsing this play. I definitely find Boston plus the +1.5 Run-Line the best side option tonight — the issue has been whether or not the price matches my -150 threshold guideline. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Year with the Boston Red Sox (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox -136 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (904) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: Boston (116-56) won Game One of the World Series last night by an 8-4 score over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 42 of their last 59 games are a victory — and they have also won 31 of their last 52 games after scoring at least eight runs in their last game. The Red Sox have now won 47 of their last 66 games at home in Fenway Park. They also have won 17 of their last 21 games against National League opponents. Additionally, Boston has won 13 of their last 15 games in the World Series including seven of their last eight World Series games at home. They turn to Price tonight who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty starts during the regular season. The veteran left-hander comes off a strong outing in Houston last Thursday when he pitched six scoreless innings in the Red Sox ALCS clinching fifth game. Boston has won 25 of their last 33 games with Price looking to follow up a Quality Start. Price has also been more effective at home where he had a 2.98 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in sixteen starts. The Red Sox have won 21 of their last 27 home games with Price on the hill — and this includes them winning eight of their last ten home games with Price facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team (99-76) that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams using a left-handed starting pitcher. This will be Los Angeles’ fourth-game in a row on the road in these playoffs — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Dodgers have also lost 25 of their last 41 road games as a money-line underdog when pried in the +100 to +150 price range. They counter with Ryu who was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen regular season starts. But the left-hander was not nearly as effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.23 marks. Ryu was hit hard for seven hits and five earned runs in his last start which was in Milwaukee last Friday where he did only pitch 3 innings. He faces this Red Sox team tonight that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and this is Ryu’s first ever start in Fenway Park with its menacing Green Monster an inviting target for right-handed batters. As it is, the Dodgers have lost 12 of their last 14 road games with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. Ryu faces this Red Sox team that has won 14 of their last 17 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and Boston has also won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHOP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Boston scored early and often against Clayton Kershaw last night with the Dodgers struggling to adjust to the nuances of Fenway Park. Expect the Red Sox to be too much for Los Angeles again tonight with Price pitching at home give them a significant advantage over Ryu. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Boston Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (904) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. THE SITUATION: Boston (116-56) won Game One of the World Series last night by an 8-4 score over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now won five straight games in these playoffs — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games. Boston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games home in Fenway Park — and they have also played 16 of their last 25 home games Over the Total when the Total is set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They turn to Price tonight who was outstanding last Thursday when he helped the Red Sox close out the ALCS in Houston by pitching six scoreless innings in the win. But while Price’s postseason struggles were perhaps a bit overblown, he still has underachieved in the playoffs when compared to his regular season performances given his 5.04 ERA in 85 2/3 innings of work which includes a 5.11 ERA this postseason even after last Friday’s strong effort. Price had a 3.58 ERA in thirty regular season starts but he did see his ERA rise to a 3.90 mark in his twenty-one starts at night. Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Price pitching after a start where he did not allow more than one earned run — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Price following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces this Dodgers’ team that has now seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (99-76) has also now played 7 of their last road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 7 games in Interleague play. And in their last 16 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range, Los Angeles has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Ryu who was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen regular season starts. But the left-hander was not nearly as effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.23 marks. Ryu was hit hard for seven hits and five earned runs in his last start which was in Milwaukee last Friday where he did only pitch 3 innings. He faces this Red Sox team tonight that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and this is Ryu’s first ever start in Fenway Park with its menacing Green Monster an inviting target for right-handed batters. The Over is 8-1-2 in Boston’s last 11 home games in their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 34-16-2 in their last games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers will be playing with desperation in this game after losing last night and not wanting to return to LA down 0-2 in this series. The Total was a run lower at 7.5 yesterday with the Clayton Kershaw-Chris Sale showdown — yet expect another higher-scoring game between these two left-handed starting pitchers in Fenway Park. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
110 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) and the Boston Red Sox (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Boston (115-56) reached the World Series by disposing of the Astros in just five games with their 4-1 victory in Houston last Thursday. Los Angeles (99-75) survived a seven-game series with the Brewers with their 5-1 victory in Milwaukee on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 27 of their last 40 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs. Los Angeles has also seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They stay on the road to start the World Series where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Dodgers have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They give the ball to Kershaw who is 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six starts in the regular season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective when pitching away from Dodgers Stadium given his 2.90 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in thirteen road starts during the regular season as compared to his 2.58 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 at home. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record. Kershaw saw his ERA rise to a 3.89 mark in the month of September where he allowed eight earned runs in two disappointing starts — and he has a similar 3.86 ERA in his four postseason appearances along with a 1.29 WHIP. Kershaw did allow only one earned run in 7 innings of work in his last start in Game Five of the NLCS — but the Dodgers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when Kershaw is following a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Over go 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 33-16-2 in their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Boston is also scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Over is 35-16-2 in their last 53 games after an off-day — and the Over is also 13-3-2 in their last 18 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox host the first two games in the World Series at Fenway Park where the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 games — and the Over is also 17-7-4 in their last 28 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Sale who is 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in twenty-seven starts in the regular season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he has a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 in twelve starts as compared to his microscopic 0.77 WHIP and .166 opponent’s batting average on the road. Sale also sees his ERA rise to a 2.32 ERA in eighteen starts at night. Sale has underperformed in the playoffs as well. He has a 4.70 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP in two starts in this postseason while owning a 6.75 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in five career playoff appearances. The Over is 3-0-2 in the Red Sox’s last 5 home games with Sale on the mound — and Boston has played 13 of their last 20 home games Over the Total with Sale pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. The Red Sox have also played 4 straight games Over the Total with Sale facing a team with a winning record. Lastly, he faces a Dodgers team that has played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This will be Kershaw’s first start at Fenway Park in his career. Two left-handed starting pitchers in Fenway Park with the Green Monster lurching in left-field? And both starting pitchers have a history of underachieving in the postseason? Let’s take the Over in this opening game. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Boston Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) and the Boston Red Sox (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-23-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox -147 |
Top |
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (902) versus the Los Angels Dodgers (90) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (115-56) reached the World Series by disposing of the Astros in just five games with their 4-1 victory in Houston last Thursday. Los Angeles (99-75) survived a seven-game series with the Brewers with their 5-1 victory in Milwaukee on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 42 of their last 59 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. They earned home field advantage in this series by having the best record in MLB during the regular season — and they have won a decisive 46 of their last 55 games at home in Fenway Park. The Red Sox have also won 6 of their last 7 games at home in World Series games. And Boston has won 46 of their last 60 games against National League teams — including winning sixteen of their last twenty games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Sale who has not pitched in nine days after dealing with a stomach ailment that caused him to miss a start. The left-hander seems completely fine now and has pitched well in his last bullpen session. Sale was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in twenty-seven starts durian the regular season. The Red Sox have won 6 of their 8 games at home with Sale on the hill — and they have won 4 straight games with Sale pitching with at least nine days of rest. He faces cold Dodgers lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .223 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .619 over that span. Los Angeles has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory as they have struggled to maintain momentum in this postseason. The Dodgers have also lost 25 of their last 41 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They counter with Kershaw who is 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six starts in the regular season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective when pitching away from Dodgers Stadium given his 2.90 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in thirteen road starts during the regular season as compared to his 2.58 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 at home. Kershaw saw his ERA rise to a 3.89 mark in the month of September where he allowed eight earned runs in two disappointing starts — and he has a similar 3.86 ERA in his four postseason appearances along with a 1.29 WHIP. He faces a Red Sox team that has won 13 of their last 16 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Boston is also scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests.
FINAL TAKE: Kershaw has never pitched in Fenway Park in his career — so he will be experiencing the Green Monster in left-field for the first time tonight. Boston has been the best team in MLB this season — they should take a 1-0 lead in this series tonight behind their ace in Sale. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (902) versus the Los Angels Dodgers (90) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-20-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Milwaukee Brewers (962) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Jhoulys Chacin. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (102-70) forced a climactic seventh game of the National League Championship Series with their 7-2 victory over the Dodgers last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles (98-75) has seen the Over go 5-1-3 in their last 9 games when facing an opponent that did not allow more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is also 3-1-3 in their last 7 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also played 6 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games on the road in the playoffs. They put their faith in their rookie right-hander Buehler who has enjoyed a fantastic season with 7-5 record with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. But Buehler has been exposed in his last two starts in these playoffs as he has allowed nine earned runs over 12 innings of work. Buehler has not been as effective on the road either where his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.45 and 1.12 marks. LA has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Buehler pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Milwaukee (102-70) has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Brewers give the ball to Chacin in this climatic game who was 15-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-four starts in the regular season. The right-hander was not as effective at home where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.79 and 1.30 marks in thirteen starts. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Chacin facing a team that did not score more than two runs in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The three games played in Milwaukee have seen a combined 27 runs scored in this series — with a seven runs being the minimum combined score in those three contests. This series saw lower scoring games when they were being played in Los Angeles in twilight games where the setting sun created sight line problems for the batters. With the pressure of the decisive seventh game of this series tonight weighing on the pitching for both teams, expect another higher-scoring game. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Milwaukee O/U Special with Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Milwaukee Brewers (962) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Jhoulys Chacin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-20-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers -103 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (962) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (102-70) forced a climactic seventh game of the National League Championship Series with their 7-2 victory over the Dodgers last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I like the chemistry of this team a bit more than what seems to bond the Dodgers. Not only has Milwaukee won 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also won a decisive 35 of their last 52 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Brewers have also won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They give the ball to Chacin who has been outstanding in the postseason. Including Milwaukee’s tie-breaker game on October 1st against the Cubs that gave the opportunity to host this seventh game as the top seed in the National League, Chacin has allowed only one earned run in 16 innings of work in his three postseason starts — he owns a 0.56 ERA with an 0.88 WHIP in those three starts. The Brewers have also won 6 of their last 8 home games with Chacin facing a team with a winning record. Manager Craig Counsell also has the luxury of a rested Josh Hader coming out of the bullpen tonight. The fireballing lefty has not allowed an earned run in his last seven appearances which has spanned 9 innings. He has only allowed five base bits over that span while striking out 15 batters. Los Angeles (98-75) has lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road in NLCS — and the Dodgers have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. I worry about the chemistry of this team with the apparent emotional team leaders being in a rental in Manny Machado and Yusiel Puig who has been erratic and inconsistent throughout his career. This team acted like they won the series won they took Game Five on Tuesday — but now this group risks being eliminated once again in the playoffs tonight. They put their faith in their rookie right-hander Buehler who has enjoyed a fantastic season with 7-5 record with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. But Buehler has been exposed in his last two starts in these playoffs as he has allowed nine earned runs over 12 innings of work. Buehler has not been as effective on the road either where his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.45 and 1.12 marks. The Dodgers have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Buehler facing a team with a winning record — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Buehler looking to stop a losing streak. Buehler faces a powerful Milwaukee offense that has won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have lost 20 of their last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The home field and the home crowd should really help the Brewers play the role of spoiler and advance to the World Series. 25* MLB Saturday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (962) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
109 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Milwaukee Brewers (958) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Wade Miley. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (98-74) took a 3-2 lead in the National League Championship Series on Wednesday with their 5-2 victory over the Brewers in the fifth game of this series. This series returns to Milwaukee for sixth and potential seventh game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have seen the Over go 5-2-3 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in the last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Ryu who did not last 5 innings in Game Two of this series where he allowed two runs and six hits. While the left-hander had a 7-3 record with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP during the regular season, he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.20 marks in his six starts on the road. And while he had a microscopic 1.02 ERA at home, that mark rose to a 2.23 ERA in his twelve starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Ryu pitching after a victory. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 13 of their last 19 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee (101-70) has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 4-1-1 in the Brewers’ last 6 games against an opponent that did not allow more than two runs in their last game. And while Milwaukee has not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. They counter with Miley who is 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in sixteen regular season starts. The left-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 2.67 and 1.35 marks in seven starts — and his opponent’s batting average at home was a subpar .270 at home. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total with Miley on the mound — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games with Miley pitching after a loss. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The first two games of this series saw eleven and seven combined runs scored. With this being a potential elimination game, expect a higher scoring game than the three previous games played in Los Angeles. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Milwaukee O/U FS1-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Milwaukee Brewers (958) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers +101 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
101 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (958) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (98-74) took a 3-2 lead in the National League Championship Series on Wednesday with their 5-2 victory over the Brewers in the fifth game of this series. This series returns to Milwaukee for sixth and potential seventh game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Don’t count out this Brewers team (101-70) that won twelve straight games after winning the opening game of this series. Milwaukee’s two-game losing streak is the first time that they have lost two straight games since September 15th and 16th. The Brewers have won 8 of their last 9 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games after a loss. Additionally, Milwaukee has won 8 straight games after an off-day — and they have won a decisive 40 of their last 58 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Brewers need to get their offense going as they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games. Milwaukee has won 16 of their last 22 games after failing to score more than four runs in three straight games. They return home where they have won 52 of their last 77 games — and they have also won five of their last seven home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Miley who had a 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in the regular season. The left-hander was outstanding in Game Two of this series in this exact situation at home dueling against Ryu as he pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings to get that win. Miley has not allowed an earned run in his 13 innings of work against the Dodgers this season which includes a 0.77 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .136. The Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Miley on the mound. Miley sees his ERA drop to a 2.24 mark at home this year — and Milwaukee has won 10 of their last 14 games with Miley pitching at night. Los Angeles has lost 12 of their last 16 games on the road in the NLCS. They counter with Ryu who did not last 5 innings in Game Two of this series where he allowed two runs and six hits. While the left-hander had a 7-3 record with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP during the regular season, he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.20 marks in his six starts on the road. And while he had a microscopic 1.02 ERA at home, that mark rose to a 2.23 ERA in his twelve starts on the road. The Dodgers have lost 11 of their last 13 road games with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles has also lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Ryu pitching when priced in the +/- 125 price range. He faces a Brewers team that has won 22 of their last 32 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and Milwaukee has also won 5 of their last 6 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Look for this underrated Brewers team to extend this series to a climactic seventh game. They have the edge in the starting pitcher battle tonight — and Josh Hader is available again to pitch an inning or two out of the bullpen. 25* MLB Friday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (958) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros -1.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (956) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Boston Red Sox (955) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and David Price. THE SITUATION: Boston (114-56) was the beneficiary of a bad call from umpire Joe West last night which took away a home run in their 8-6 victory over the Astros in the fourth game of the American League Championship Series to take a 3-1 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON MINUS THE RUN-LINE: While the Red Sox led MLB with their remarkable 108 wins in the regular season, don’t sleep on the reigning World Series champions who quietly won 103 games. The Astros (107-62) led MLB with a +263 run differential which was swamped their +196 run differential last year. Their +459 run differential over the last two regular seasons is the best two-year run in MLB since the ’98-99 Yankees. Who knows how many more wins Houston would have accrued in the regular season if not for the injuries to Jose Altuve, Carlos Correia, and George Springer? They have dugs themselves a big hole in this series — but I do expect them to take extend this series to a sixth game back in Boston on Saturday. The Astros have won 7 of their last 9 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. This team has also won 9 of their last 13 games when playing with triple revenge against their opponent. Houston has now played six straight Overs after last night’s high-scoring affair. Not only have the Astros won 36 of their last 49 games after playing at least three straight Overs but they have also won 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least five straight Overs. They remain at home for perhaps the last time this season. They have still won 13 of their last 18 games at home while also winning 10 of their last 13 home games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Verlander who was 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in thirty-four regular season starts. The right-hander was even better at home where he had a 0.84 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .193 in nineteen starts. Houston has won 4 straight games at home with Verlander making the start. Verlander has been outstanding for the Astros in the playoffs where he owns a 6-1 record with a 2.43 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 48 innings while striking out 51 batters. Houston has won 6 of their last 7 games in the playoffs with Verlander on the mound — and his teams have won 4 of their last 5 games when he is making the start in a game where his team faces potential elimination in the playoffs. Boston has scored eight runs in two straight games — but they have then lost 18 of their last 31 games after scoring at least eight runs in two straight games. The Red Sox have also lost 3 of their last 4 games on the road as a big underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. Manager Dave Roberts has little choice to counter with Price tonight despite having him warm up in the bullpen in both the 8th and 9th innings to potentially relieve a very shaky Craig Kimbrel last night. Price is already pitching on three days rest for this start — so this is far from optimal conditions for the left-hander. For the season, Price was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP — but he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.31 and 1.22 marks in four starts on the road during the regular season. Price has a well-documented history of struggles in the playoffs. For his career, he has a 2-3 record in the playoffs with a 5.42 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP in 79 2/3 innings. In this postseason, Price is 0-1 with a 9.95 ERA with a 2.21 WHIP in two starts. His teams have lost 10 of their last 11 games that he is making the start in the playoffs. He faces an angry Astros team that has won 12 of their last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With the Astros a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold, I am only considering a Run-Line play for this situation. With Verlander on the hill and this Boston team already satisfied that they will be returning home to Fenway Park with the opportunity to win this series with just one more victory, I expect Houston to secure the victory by more than one run. 25* MLB American League Playoff Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (956) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Boston Red Sox (955) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros -140 |
|
8-6 |
Loss |
-140 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:39 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (914) versus the Boston Red Sox (913) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: Boston (112-56) took a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 5-2 victory over the Astros in the American League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 10 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss at home by at least six runs. The Astros have also won 7 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 7 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. And while all four of these games have finished Over the Total so far in this series, Houston has won 26 of their last 34 games after playing at least four straight Overs. Additionally, the Astros have still won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 19 of their last 26 home games in the playoffs. They send out Morton who is 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The Astros have won 24 of their last 36 games at home with Morton on the mound. And despite yesterday’s win, Boston has lost 11 of their last 17 games on the month of October. The Red Sox have also lost 4 of their last 6 games on the road as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander is not as effective on the road where he has a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average at home. Porcello also has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in his twenty-six starts at night. Boston has lost 4 of their last 6 road games with Porcello pitching as a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: Roberto Osuna let the Astros down coming out of the bullpen yesterday — but this remains a powerful Houston team who won 103 games during the regular season despite being without the services of Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correia for much of the season due to injuries. Look for the Astros to even this series at two games apiece tonight. 10* MLB Boston-Houston TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (914) versus the Boston Red Sox (913) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:39 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Boston (112-56) took a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 5-2 victory over the Astros in the American League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Houston (107-60) has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least six runs. Additionally, the Astros have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least six runs. Houston has now seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games at home — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total at home when priced as a favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. Furthermore, the Over is 14-2-1 in the Astros’ last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They give the ball to Morton who is 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander does see his ERA rise to a 3.21 mark in his sixteen starts at home. Morton has a 4.03 ERA in his six appearances in the playoffs in his career which includes five starts. Morton has struggled against the Red Sox this season with a 6.97 ERA with a 1.84 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings of work. He faces a Boston team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in these playoffs — and they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Boston has scored fifteen runs in the last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. The Red Sox have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander is not as effective on the road where he has a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average at home. Porcello also has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in his twenty-six starts at night. He did allow only one earned run in 5 innings of work in his last start against the Yankees in Game Four of the ALDS — but Boston has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when he is following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs with a .262 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .824. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Astros against this Red Sox team playing with proverbial house money with their opportunity to seize a 3-1 lead in this series with two potential games still to be played back home at Fenway Park. That is a recipe for a high-scoring game. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-18 |
Brewers +1.5 v. Dodgers |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-130 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (911) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (96-74) evened this series at two games apiece late last night with their 2-1 win in 13 innings over the Brewers in the National League Championship Series. That game lasted over 5 hours and both these teams will be playing this pivotal fifth game victory with less than a fifteen-hour turnaround from the end of last night’s game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Despite their loss, last night, Milwaukee (101-68) continues to prove themselves feisty as they have won thirteen of their last fifteen games — and their two losses were just by one run over that stretch. The Brewers have won 15 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss where just one run was scored. Milwaukee has also won 19 of their last 26 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Brewers have won 7 of the last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Miley who is 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.50 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in nine starts as compared to his 2.67 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 at home. Miley has not allowed an earned run in his two starts in the playoffs which have spanned 10 1/3 innings of work while registering a 0.50 WHIP during that span. He also has held the Dodgers scoreless in his 13 innings of work against them this season while posting a 0.76 WHIP during that span. Milwaukee has won 8 of their last 9 games with Miley pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight starts. The Brewers have also won 4 straight road games with Miley making the start. Miley faces a Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .208 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .632 during that span. Los Angeles has lost 19 of their last 31 games in the NLCS — and they have also lost 10 of their last 13 games when tied in a playoff series. They count on their ace Kershaw this afternoon who looks to bounce-back from allowing five runs (four earned) in 3 innings of work in Game One of this series on Friday. The left-hander had a 9-5 mark during the regular season with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six starts. He saw his ERA rise to a 3.89 mark in September which included two starts where he allowed eight earned runs in what were important situations for his team. The Dodgers have lost 7 of their last 11 games with Kershaw pitching as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. They also have lost 5 of their last 8 games in the NLCS with Kershaw on the mound. The Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: This will be a gut check moment for both teams after the grueling game last night. All hands will be on deck for this critical contest. I expect another close game — with Milwaukee having a great chance of winning this game outright. With Kershaw on the hill, the Dodgers are big money-line favorites that have bet up to being money-line favorites in the -170 range — and that makes the Brewers plus the +1.5 Run-Line below my -150 price threshold. Let’s attack. 25* MLB Wednesday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with the Milwaukee Brewers (911) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-18 |
Brewers v. Dodgers -137 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (909) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Gio Gonzalez. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (101-68) seized a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 4-0 win over the Dodgers in Game Three of the National League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles (96-74) has won 20 of their last 29 games when avenging a shutout loss to their opponents. The Dodgers have also won 5 of their last 6 games when trailing in a playoff series. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have won 7 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won 9 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Hill who is 11-5 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in twenty-four starts this season. After a slow start to the season, the left-hander raised his level of play in the second-half of the season as he put up a 3.03 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in thirteen starts after the All-Star Break. Hill has been reliable in the playoffs for the Dodgers as well. Since 2016, Hill has logged in 35 innings in the playoffs for Los Angeles where he has produced a 3.09 ERA while striking out 44 batters. The Dodgers have won 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs with Hill on the mound. Milwaukee has lost 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total in the 7 to 7.5 range. They counter with Gonzalez who is 10-11 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The left-hander saw his ERA rise to a 4.83 mark in his sixteen starts on the road. His teams have lost 11 of their last 16 games with Gonzalez pitching on the road — and they have also lost 9 of their last 11 road games at night with Gonzalez making the start. Furthermore, Gonzalez’s teams have lost 7 of their last 8 road games in the second half of the season. Additionally, Gonzalez has not pitched well in the playoffs in his career given his 4.76 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP in seven starts.
FINAL TAKE: Look for the Dodgers to bounce-back tonight to even this series at two games apiece. 25* MLB Tuesday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (909) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 |
|
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 5:09 PM ET On Tuesday, we will be playing the Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (907) and the Houston Astros (908) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dallas Kuechel. THE SITUATION: Boston (112-56) evened this series at a game apiece on Sunday with their 7-5 victory over the Astros in the second game of the American League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox has seen the Over go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 20-6-2 in their last 28 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 34-16-2 in Boston’s last 52 games after an off-day. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 22 games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range, the Red Sox have played 15 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Eovaldi who is 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander has struggled all season with Tampa Bay and then the Red Sox (after being acquired at the trade deadline) when pitching away from home as he has a 5.14 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in thirteen starts on the road. Eovaldi also struggles in night games where he has a 5.11 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in twelve starts (thirteen appearances). Boston has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Eovaldi on the hill — and the Over is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games with Eovaldi facing a team with a winning record. Houston (107-60) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off-day. They return home for the first time since October 6th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Astros have also played 7 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Houston has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. They counter with Keuchel who is 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-four starts. He does see his ERA rise to a 3.90 mark when he pitches at home. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games with Keuchel pitching against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Expect another high-scoring game. 10* MLB Boston-Houston O/U TBS-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (907) and the Houston Astros (908) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dallas Kuechel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros -121 |
Top |
8-2 |
Loss |
-121 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 5:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (908) versus the Boston Red Sox (907) while listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: Boston (112-56) evened this series at a game apiece on Sunday with their 7-5 victory over the Astros in the second game of the American League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston (107-60) has bounced-back to win 10 of their last 11 games are a loss. While the Red Sox led MLB with their remarkable 108 wins in the regular season, don’t sleep on the reigning World Series champions who quietly won 103 games. The Astros led MLB with a +263 run differential which was swamped their +196 run differential last year. Their +459 run differential over the last two regular seasons is the best two-year run in MLB since the ’98-99 Yankees. This is a dominant team — and they have won 5 straight games after an off-day. Houston returns home for the first time since October 6th — and they have won 10 of their last 12 home games after being on the road for a least seven days. The Astros have also won 13 of their last 16 games at home. And while Houston has played three straight games Over the Total, they have then won a decisive 36 of their last 47 games Over the Total after playing their last three games Over the Total. They give the ball to Kuechel who is 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-four starts during the regular season. The left-hander was more effective at home where he owned a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in sixteen starts as compared to his 1.34 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 when on the road. Keuchel has been reliable in the postseason as he owns a 4-2 record with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in nine games which includes eight starts. He allowed two earned runs in 5 innings of work in his last start last Monday in the ALDS against the Indians — and Houston has won 4 straight games when Keuchel is pitching with at least seven days of rest. The Astros have also won 12 of their last 18 games in the second-half of the season with Keuchel on the hill — and they have won 21 of their last 33 games with Keuchel pitching as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. He faces a Red Sox team that has lost 8 of their last 13 games in the playoffs. Boston’s offense is not quite as potent against left-handed pitching either. For the season, the Red Sox have a .268 batting average with a .336 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .773 but all those numbers decline to a .258 batting average with a .316 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .738 when facing left-handed starting pitcher. Boston counters with Eovaldi who is 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander has struggled all season with Tampa Bay and then the Red Sox (after being acquired at the trade deadline) when pitching away from home as he has a 5.14 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in thirteen starts on the road. Eovaldi also struggles in night games where he has a 5.11 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in twelve starts (thirteen appearances). His teams have lost 10 of their last 14 games with Eovaldi pitching at night. Eovaldi’s teams have also lost 6 of their last 7 road games with him making the start as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range — and his teams have also lost 11 of their last 15 games when he is making the start on the road with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. And in his last 7 starts against teams with a winning record, his teams have lost 5 of these contests. Eovaldi faces this Astros team that has won 44 of their last 64 home games against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: The clouds aligned for this situation with the Astros returning home coming off a loss to face Eovaldi who is his least effective throughout his career in road games at night. I am happy that Houston is priced below my -150 price threshold limit. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (908) versus the Boston Red Sox (907) while listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-18 |
Brewers +1.5 v. Dodgers |
|
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:39 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-3) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 4-4 victory over the Brewers in the second game of the National League Championship Series. This series moves to Los Angeles for the next three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Milwaukee (100-68) has bounced-back to win 18 of the last 24 games after a loss. They also have won 10 of their last 15 games when looking to avenge a loss by just one run. They go on the road where they have won 6 straight games against teams with a winning record at home. The Brewers have also won 13 of their last 22 road games as a big underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They give the ball to Chacin who is 15-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The right-hander has been better on the road this year where he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.41 and 1.10 marks along with an opponent’s batting average of .211. Milwaukee has won 15 of their last 22 road games with Chacin on the hill. Chacin boasts a 5-4 record with a 2.78 ERA over his last ten starts — and he has only allowed two combined earned runs over his last three starts that have all consisted of at least 5 innings of work. The Brewers have won 8 of their last 12 games when Chacin is pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in at least two straight starts. Chacin will be supported the outstanding Brewers bullpen that has a 2.73 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP over their last seven games — even after their pen allowed the four runs that cost them Game Two. Manager Craig Counsel will have Josh Hader available to pitch in this game after he logged in three scoreless in their opening game win in this series. The fireballing left-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last five appearances spanning 7 1/3 innings of work where he allowed only three hits and no walks while striking out eleven batters. Milwaukee faces a Dodgers team that is hitting only .232 over their last seven games. Los Angeles averages 4.9 Runs-Per-Game this season with a .249 batting average along with a .329 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .757 — but those numbers drop at home to them scoring 4.5 Runs-Per-Game with a .241 batting average along with a .316 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .741. The Dodgers have lost 9 of their last 12 games in the playoffs when the series is tied. They counter with Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The rookie right-hander did struggle in his last start in the playoffs against Atlanta where he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings of work. Buehler also sees his ERA rise to a 4.91 mark when pitching in day games. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 21 of their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. LA is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .292 batting average along with a .363 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .826 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has a reasonable chance to win this game outright tonight — but with the +1.5 Run-Line price below my -150 price threshold, that is the prudent investment for the Side play tonight. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Brewers (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-18 |
Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:39 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-3) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 4-4 victory over the Brewers in the second game of the National League Championship Series. This series moves to Los Angeles for the next three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a victory by two runs or less. Now they return home to Los Angeles for the first time since October 5th — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.12 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 in eleven starts (twelve appearances). The Under is 10-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 12 home games with Buehler on the hill. He will be supported by a hot bullpen that has a 1.99 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP over their last seven games. Milwaukee (100-68) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have now played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Brewers have played 39 of their last 58 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. They counter with Chacin who is 15-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The right-hander has been better on the road this year where he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.41 and 1.10 marks along with an opponent’s batting average of .211. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Chacin on the hill. Chacin will be supported the outstanding Brewers bullpen that has a 2.73 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP over their last seven games — even after their pen allowed the four runs that cost them Game Two. Manager Craig Counsel will have Josh Hader available to pitch in this game after he logged in three scoreless in their opening game win in this series. The fireballing left-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last five appearances spanning 7 1/3 innings of work where he allowed only three hits and no walks while striking out eleven batters.
FINAL TAKE: To accommodate the prime-time programming for the east coast, this game will be played in the late afternoon in Los Angeles — and that means shadows which can challenge the sight-lines for the batters. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-18 |
Astros v. Red Sox OVER 8 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (951) and the Boston Red Sox (952) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and David Price. THE SITUATION: Houston (107-59) won the opening game of the American League Championship Series last night by a 7-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros scored eleven runs in their 11-3 win over the Indians last Monday to close out the ALDS to begin the week. Houston has played 21 of their last 26 road games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in each of their last two games. The Astros have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They send out Cole who is 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has been a bit less effective on the road where he has a 1.10 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .206 in seventeen starts as compared to his 0.97 WHIP and a .188 opponent’s batting average at home. Cole also saw his numbers decline in the second-half of the season where he had a 3.50 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP after the All-Star Break. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Cole pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Cole facing a team with a winning record. Cole faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Over go 37-16-2 in their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Boston (111-56) has seen the Over go 15-5-2 in their last 22 games after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-1-2 in the Red Sox’s last 10 games at home. The Red Sox counter with Price who has often struggled in the playoffs given his 5.28 ERA in 75 innings of postseason work in his career. Boston has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Price pitching as the underdog. The Red Sox have also played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total overall.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (951) and the Boston Red Sox (952) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-18 |
Astros v. Red Sox +1.5 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (952) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (951) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Houston (107-59) won the opening game of the American League Championship Series last night by a 7-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston led the majors with 111 wins for a reason — so they should be discounted so quickly. This is a team that has won 20 of their last 23 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. The Red Sox have rebounded to win in 33 of their last 49 games after a loss. Boston has also won 7 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Red Sox have won 41 of their last 59 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Boston has also won a decisive 45 of their last 64 games at home in Fenway Park. The Red Sox are probably underdogs because of the trepidation regarding Price who has some high-profile bad efforts in the playoffs which were magnified after he pitched only 1 2/3 innings where he allowed three runs in Game Two of the ALDS against the Yankees. Price was outstanding during the second-half of the season where he had a 6-1 record with 11 starts with a 2.25 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP. The left-hander also has a 2.98 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in sixteen starts at home. Boston has won 20 of their last 26 home games with Price on the hill — and this includes them winning seven of their last nine home games with Price facing a team with a winning record. The Red Sox have also won 16 of their last 23 night games with Price on the hill. Houston (107-59) has lost 8 of their last 11 games on the road in the ALCS. They counter with Cole who is 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has been a bit less effective on the road where he has a 1.10 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .206 in seventeen starts as compared to his 0.97 WHIP and a .188 opponent’s batting average at home. Cole also saw his numbers decline in the second-half of the season where he had a 3.50 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP after the All-Star Break. Lastly, because the Astros’ bullpen has an ERA of 2.06 over their last ten games, Houston falls into an empirical “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 72% effective over the last five seasons. The Astros have not committed more than one error in eleven straight games — but road favorites who have not committed more than one error in ten straight games with a bullpen ERA of 2.50 or lower in their last ten games have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 105 of the last 146 situations (priced in the +160 to -115 price range) where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: I liked Boston to win this game tonight — and with the betting action pushing the Astros’ money-line price up, our Run-Line price drops below my -150 price threshold. There will be times where I will like money-line price after laying -1.5 Runs in these playoffs, but let’s buy the +1.5 Run-Line for some insurance tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night Run-Line Special Feature with the Boston Red Sox (952) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (951) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Wade Miley. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (99-67) took a 1-0 lead in the NDLS last night with their 6-5 victory over the Dodgers. Both these teams see a quick turnaround for this afternoon game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles (95-72) has now lost two of their last three games — and they are being given no favors in having to rebound quickly for this afternoon game after last night’s loss. They are staring the prospect of leaving Milwaukee down 0-2 in this series in less than a twenty-four period. As it is, the Dodgers have lost 11 of their last 14 games on the road in the NLDS. They give the ball to Ryu who is 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.58 mark along with a 1.23 WHIP. Ryu has not been quite as good in day games either where he has a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in three starts as compared to his 0.88 WHIP and .186 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts at night. Los Angeles has lost 11 of their last 12 road games with Ryu on the hill — and they have also lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Ryu pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a Brewers team that has won 20 of their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have also won 4 straight home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee has won twelve straight games as well as twenty-three of their last twenty-nine contests. The Brewers have won 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record. Manager Craig Counsel leaned heavily on his lefty fireballer Josh Hader who dominated with 3 innings of work last night — Counsel has indicated that Hader will not be available this afternoon. But Counsel has the benefit of a slew of good arms (and his starting pitchers) to use out the bullpen for this game. Milwaukee’s bullpen has a 3.03 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP at home this season — and their pen has a 2.02 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP over their last seven games. Counsel has relied on his bullpen to pitch 11 1/3 innings over their last two games while also pitching 15 1/3 innings in their last three contests. The Brewers have won 29 of their last 38 games when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings over their last two games — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games when they bullpen has pitched at least 4 innings in three straight games. They look for Miley to give them 3 to 5 innings of work to start the game — the left-hander has a 5-2 record with a 2.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in sixteen starts. Miley has thrived in afternoon games where he has a 1.16 WHIP with a .226 opponent’s batting average in three starts as opposed to his 1.23 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average at night. Miley comes off a strong outing where he gave up only three hits and no earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work in the NLDS against Colorado last Sunday. The Brewers have won 8 straight games with Miley pitching with five days of rest — and they have also won 4 straight home games with Miley on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: This game opened as basically a pick ‘em with both teams small money-line favorites — but the betting action has moved the Dodgers to be priced as the favorite in the -130 range. Perhaps that is a reaction to Hader not being available to pitch in this game — and that is an overreaction since the Brewers have plenty of good arms available to Counsel. Milwaukee has a great chance to win this game to take the 2-0 lead in this series after defeating Clayton Kershaw last night — but the best value is to invest in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that being priced below my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Saturday Afternoon Run-Line Special with the Milwaukee Brewers (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
102 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
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At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) and the Milwaukee Brewers (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (95-72) has won seven of their last eight games after dispatching of the Braves in four games in the NLDS with their 6-2 win in Atlanta on Monday. Milwaukee (99-67) has won eleven straight games after they swept the Rockies in three games with their 6-0 win in Colorado on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers shutout the Rockies in the last two games of that series — and they have not allowed more than two runs in each of their last five games. But Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last five contests. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 7.5 range. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .288 batting average along with a .394 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .957 over that span. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers have also played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. LA stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set at 7 or less. The Dodgers have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They give the ball to Kershaw who is 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The left-hander has not been quite as good on the road where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 2.90 and 1.07 marks in thirteen starts. His opponent’s batting average of .243 on the road is much higher than his .211 mark at home. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Kershaw on the mound. And while he pitched 8 shutout innings in his last start in Game Two of the NLDS against the Braves, the Dodgers have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Kershaw pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in his last start. He faces Brewers team that is hitting the ball well. Milwaukee is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .300 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .829 over that span. Lastly, the Brewers are looking to avenge a 21-5 loss in LA to the Dodgers the last time these two teams played back on August 2nd — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by at least eight runs.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set in the low 7/7.5 range for this opening game, expect an Over between these two teams swinging hot bats. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) and the Milwaukee Brewers (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-18 |
Dodgers -150 v. Brewers |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-150 |
6 h 59 m |
Show
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At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (95-72) has won seven of their last eight games after dispatching of the Braves in four games in the NLDS with their 6-2 win in Atlanta on Monday. Milwaukee (99-67) has won eleven straight games after they swept the Rockies in three games with their 6-0 win in Colorado on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should respond well to the days off as they have won 37 of their last 52 games after an off-day. The Dodgers have also won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They send out their ace in Kershaw who was 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six regular season starts. Kershaw has an earned reputation of struggling in the playoffs given some high-profile blowups that were in such stark contrast to his outstanding regular season campaigns. But the left-hander has been consistently quite good in the postseason going back to the 2016 playoffs. In his last ten playoff appearances that included eight starts, Kershaw has a 3.02 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP with 47 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings of work. While that ERA is above his career 2.39 mark, his WHIP is lower than his career 1.00 WHIP mark. Certainly, a higher playoff ERA is understandable given that Kershaw is facing elite teams. Kershaw also shines when pitching with more rest — and pitching on three days of rest did play a role in some of his poor playoff performances in the past. Kershaw had a 2.48 ERA while averaging 9.2 strikeouts per 9 innings when pitching with at least five days of rest. That was the case in Game Two of the NLDS when Kershaw was pitching of five days of rest — and he pitched 8 shutout innings in his win over Atlanta. That effort was a week ago so Kershaw should be rested and prepared for another outstanding effort. As it is, the Dodgers have won 36 of their last 51 road games with Kershaw on the hill. Los Angeles has also won 5 of their last 7 games in Milwaukee with Kershaw making the start. The Brewers have lost 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 7 or less. Craig Counsel made the difficult decision to tap Gonzalez to open the NLCS despite him not be used in the NDLS. Counsel is trying to mix-and-match his starters to maximize his team’s chances to win — and that tells you something about how he feels about his team facing Kershaw. Gonzalez was 10-11 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP this season for Washington and then Milwaukee. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the left-hander given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 4.73 and 4.44 moving forward. Gonzalez was not as effective at home where he had a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in sixteen starts as compared to his 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .254. Gonzalez also has a 4.44 ERA at night as opposed to his 3.86 ERA for day games. His teams have lost 15 of their last 22 games when he is pitching with his team on at least a three-game winning streak. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .288 batting average along with a .394 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .957 over that span. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Kershaw gives the Dodgers a big edge in this game — and this LA team has a significant advantage in playoff experience after their World Series appearance last year while this Brewers team failed to make the playoffs. 25* MLB National League Playoffs Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-09-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees -123 |
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4-3 |
Loss |
-123 |
5 h 46 m |
Show
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At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: Boston (110-55) seized a 2-1 lead in this ALDS last night with their 16-1 beatdown against the Yankees. The Red Sox have the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York (102-64) should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight as they have won 43 of their last 58 games after a loss — and they have won 41 of their last 53 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Yankees have won 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least nine runs — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least six runs. The Bronx Bombers have also won 9 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least ten runs. The Yankees have still won 7 of their last 9 home games when pried in the -100 to -150 price range — and they have also won 7 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The crafty left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.12 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in fifteen starts. New York has won 13 of their last 16 home games with Sabathia on the hill pitching as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range — and they have also won 19 of their last 26 games looking to stop a losing streak with Sabathia making the start. Boston may suffer a letdown after their easy win yesterday as they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory of at least ten runs against an AL East rival. The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. They counter with Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.27 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 at home. Porcello also tends to struggle in night games where he has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Porcello pitching as a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The best thing about losing by 15 runs is that the next game offers a blank slate on the scoreboard. Look for the Yankees to force a climactic fifth game in this American League Divisional Series. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Yankees (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-09-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
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At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and C.C. Sabathia. THE SITUATION: Boston (110-55) seized a 2-1 lead in this ALDS last night with their 16-1 beatdown against the Yankees. The Red Sox have the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least ten rounds. Furthermore, Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.27 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 at home. Porcello also tends to struggle in night games where he has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The Red Sox have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with Porcello pitching after a victory on their last game. He faces a Yankees team that has played 7 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. New York (102-64) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. The Yankees have also played 19 of their last 28 home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total. Aaron Boone has issues with his bullpen after the logged in 6 innings last night after he used his bullpen for 4 innings in each of the first two games of this series. New York has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 6 innings — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after having their bullpen pitch at least 4 innings in three straight games. They counter with Sabathia who is 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The Yankees have played 5 straight games Over the Total when Sabathia is pitching after a game where they allowed at least five runs. He faces a hot-hitting Red Sox lineup that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .384 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .897 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters in Yankee Stadium Over the Total. With the Bronx Bombers facing the possible end of their season tonight, expect another high-scoring game. 25* MLB Red Sox-Yankees’ O/U A-List Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-08-18 |
Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees |
|
16-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (913) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: New York (102-65) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 6-2 victory over the Red Sox in Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston (109-55) has won a decisive 40 of their last 58 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Red Sox have also won 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. And while this Boston team is not a big money-line underdog very often, they have pulled the upset and won straight-up in 11 of their last 17 road games as a money-line dog priced at least at +150. They give the ball to Eovaldi who is 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander was mostly effective after being traded to the Red Sox as he posted a 3.33 ERA in his 54 innings wearing a Boston uniform. The former Yankee will not likely be intimidated pitching in Yankee Stadium — and he owns a 2.11 ERA in his three starts against New York this season. His teams have won 28 of their last 46 games when he is starting with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. New York has lost 8 straight third games of a series. The Yankees have also lost 20 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Severino has pitched better as of late — but he still was saddled with a 5.59 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .291 after the All-Star Break. The right-hander has not been as effective in night games where he has a 3.69 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in twenty-two starts as compared to his 2.76 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 during day games. Severino faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .362 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .862 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees are at a high -180 price range for this game at home with Severino on the hill — and that makes the Red Sox price with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line fall below my -150 price threshold. This is a solid value play on a team that won 108 games in the regular season who can certainly pull the upset. Take the plus +1.5 Run-Line for some insurance. 10* MLB Boston-NY Yankees Run-Line Special with the Boston Red Sox (913) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-08-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
16-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: New York (102-65) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 6-2 victory over the Red Sox in Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. New York has also played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 9 straight games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts this season. The right-hander did not allow an earned run when he pitched the first 4 innings of the Yanks’ AL Wild Card playoff game against the A’s — but New York has played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total when Severino comes off a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. The Over is also 18-7-1 in the Yankees’ last 26 home games with Severino on the hill — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Severino facing the Red Sox. Boston (109-55) is still scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .362 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .862 over that span. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 18-6-2 in Boston’s last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after an off-day. Furthermore, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Eovaldi who is 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 5.14 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in thirteen road starts. Eovaldi also has a 5.11 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 at night. The Over is 4-1-1 in Boston’s last 6 games with Eovaldi facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Bronx Bombers team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting a .274 batting average with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .866 during that span. The Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two teams in a pivotal third game of this American League Divisional Series. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-08-18 |
Dodgers -141 v. Braves |
Top |
6-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
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At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (919) versus the Atlanta Braves (920) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (91-74) kept their season alive last night by defeating the Dodgers by a 6-5 score to force a fourth game this afternoon in this best-of-five series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Braves also snapped a four-game losing streak yesterday — but they have then lost 14 of their last 19 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta has still lost 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Braves have also lost 20 of their last 28 games in the playoffs. They turn back to Foltynewicz who was shelled for four runs in just 2 innings of work on Thursday in the opening game of this series while surrendering two home runs in that outing. The right-hander is 13-10 this season with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP — but he sees his ERA rise to a 3.19 mark when pitching at home. I am not a believer in Foltynewicz with the sabermetrics screaming that he is overachieving. His SIERA and xFIP both project an ERA of 3.77 moving forward. Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .290 batting average along with a .361 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .944. Los Angeles (94-72) has won 25 of their last 34 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers should bounce-back to end this series today as they have won 9 of their last 11 games after a loss. LA has also won 5 straight games after allowing at least five runs. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won 15 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Hill who has an 11-5 record with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.63 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in thirteen starts. Los Angeles has won 6 of their last 8 road games with Hill on the mound. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .196 batting average along with a .252 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .514 during that span. They finally scored runs last night after being shutout in the opening two games of this series — but they still managed only four base hits while benefitting from Walker Buehler’s adrenaline contributing to him being wild in the 2nd inning. Atlanta has lost 5 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 of their last games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: I am overjoyed that the price on the Dodgers is below my -150 price threshold. Attack! 25* MLB NLDS Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (919) versus the Atlanta Braves (920) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-08-18 |
Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 |
Top |
11-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
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At 1:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Houston (105-59) has taken a 2-0 lead in this ALDS with their 3-1 victory over the Indians in the second game of this series on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Indians return home for the first time since September 23rd in this must-win elimination game. Cleveland has seen the Over go 4-0-2 in their last 6 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Indians have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Over is 8-3-2 in Cleveland’s last 13 games after a loss — and the Over is 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.14 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in seventeen starts. The Indians have seen the Over go 10-4-2 in their last 16 home games with Clevinger on the hill. The Cleveland bullpen is struggling as of late as well. Over their last five games, the Indians’ bullpen has an ERA of 8.82 — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of at least 6.50 over their last five games. Houston (105-59) has played 14 of their last 18 playoff games Over the Total in the ALDS. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Keuchel who is 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The lefty has not been as effective on the road where he sees his WHIP rise to a 1.34 mark with a .273 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP with a .253 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Over is 3-1-2 in Houston’s last 6 road games with Keuchel on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Over go 12-3-4 in their last 19 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be playing with a sense of desperation with their season on the line. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB American League Divisional Series Playoff Total with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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