05-28-23 |
Pirates v. Mariners -134 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (929) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Luis Ortiz. THE SITUATION: Seattle (27-25) has won five of their last six games after their 5-0 victory against the Pirates in the second game of this series on Saturday. Pittsburgh (26-25) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle has now won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set from 8 to 8.5. Gonzales gets the ball as he looks to build on his six innings of work where he allowed only two runs at home against Oakland last Tuesday. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.30 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in four starts as opposed to his ugly 7.17 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .330 in five starts on the road. The Mariners have won 9 of their last 14 home games with Gonzales pitching with the Total set from 8.5 to 10 range. He should pitch well against this Pirates team that has lost 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Pittsburgh has lost 11 of their last 16 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Ortiz who has a 1-2 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in three starts since getting called up from Triple-A. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.52 and 5.13 moving forward. His lone start on the road this season resulted in him allowing three runs in three innings while walking four batters and giving up seven hits at Detroit. The Pirates have lost 37 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners have won 9 of their last 12 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 8* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (929) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Luis Ortiz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-23 |
Marlins v. Angels -195 |
|
8-5 |
Loss |
-195 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (980) versus the Miami Marlins (979) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Edward Cabrera. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (28-24) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with a 6-2 loss in the opening game of their series with the Marlins. Miami (26-26) has won two of their last three games to end a four-game losing streak.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should respond with a big effort tonight as they have won 14 of their last 23 games after losing their last game — and they have won 4 of their last 6 games after losing their previous game by four or more runs. Manager Phil Nevin turns to Ohtani tonight who comes off an outstanding effort where he allowed only one hit and two runs in six innings of work at home against Minnesota last Sunday. The superstar right-hander has had some clunkers this month — but those have mostly been on the road. Ohtani sports a 2.45 ERA along with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .131 in five starts at home as compared to his 3.81 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .156 in five starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Marlins team that has lost 39 of their last 57 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Miami is second-to-last in drawing walks which has played a large role in their scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game which is last in MLB. Their 7-6 loss to the Rockies on Thursday was just the fourth time in 19 games they were on the losing end of a game decided by one run. Their near .500 record coming from these narrow victories masks a bottom-five run differential in the league. The Marlins have lost 4 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 24 road games in interleague play. Manager Skip Schumaker taps Cabrera to take the mound after he allowed three runs in six innings in his last start at Colorado on Monday. While the right-hander has a 3.60 ERA along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in four starts at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 6.15 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in six starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels have won 16 of their last 21 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (980) versus the Miami Marlins (979) listing both starting pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Edward Cabrera. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-23 |
Reds v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (22-29) has won two of their last three games after their 9-0 victory in the opening game of this three-game series. Chicago (22-28) has lost two straight games and four of their last six contests with that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road. Williamson gets the ball to make his third career professional start after carrying an 0-0 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his first two starts. After a promising first start on the road against Colorado, the left-hander gave up for earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work against St. Louis on Sunday. He issued four walks in that effort which continued his problems of command that manifested in his minor league stints. In Triple-A last season, he had a 1.63 WHIP while averaging 5.3 walks per nine innings. In his 34 innings in Triple-A this season, he continued that 5.3 bases-on-balls per nine-inning rate while posting a 1.88 WHIP. He faces a Cubs team that scores 6.3 Runs-Per-Game this season against left-handed pitchers with a .303 Batting Average, a .367 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .859. With the recently called-up Christopher Morel on fire and Seiya Suzuki finally heating up, Chicago has two red-hot hitters on the right side of the plate — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 10 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by four or more runs. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games at home at Wrigley Field — and the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the Total in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Taillon who has an 0-3 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.73 in seven starts. The right-hander is amidst a terrible slump having allowed 19 earned runs in just 12 2/3 innings in his last four starts. He has only struck out 11 batters during that span while issuing six walks. And while Taillon has a 7.80 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in four road starts, those numbers are even worse at home where has been saddled with an 8.49 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .340 in three starts. Taillon’s teams have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when he is pitching in May.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 Batting Average, a .350 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .771. These two teams have played 4 straight Overs against each other. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-23 |
Marlins v. Angels -133 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-133 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (926) versus the Miami Marlins (925) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (28-23) has won four games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 7-3 win against Boston on Wednesday. Miami (25-26) has lost four of their last five games after their 7-6 loss in Colorado to the Rockies on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last contest — and they have won 7 straight opening games to a new series. Manager Phil Levin turns to Detmers tonight who follows up an outing where he struck out 12 batters in 5 2/3 innings at home against Minnesota last Friday. The left-hander only gave up two hits but the Twins still scored three runs. That has been the story of the 23-year-old’s season — he has an 0-3 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in eight starts but his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.68 and 3.80 from his deeper numbers. Detmers has been pretty unfortunate when it comes to battle balls given the Batting Average for Balls put Into Play (BABIP) against him at .351 — well above the MLB average in the .290 range. He has also stranded only 60.9% of the runners he has left on base which is about 11% below league averages. The Regression Gods will soon arrive to offer help with more batted balls being hit at his defense — and that will lead to fewer baserunners and runners that score. Last season, Detmers had a 7-6 record with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP — and his SIERA and xFIP stood at 4.12 and 4.20 so there is an argument that he is pitching better this season, especially with his increased velocity that has carried over from spring training. In his 13 starts at home last year, Detmers had a 3.22 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a .193 opponent’s batting average. He should pitch well against this Marlins team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 39 of their last 52 road games against left-handed starters. Miami is second-to-last in drawing walks which have played a large role in their scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game which is last in MLB. Their loss to the Rockies yesterday was just the fourth time in 19 games they were on the losing end of a game decided by one run. Their near .500 record coming from these narrow victories masks a bottom-five run differential in the league. The Marlins have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 23 road games in interleague play. Manager Skip Schumaker taps Luzardo to take the mound after he gave up six runs in five innings of work in his last start at San Francisco on Sunday. The left-hander has a 3-3 record with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.37 — and the sabermetrics suggest he has been overperforming given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.89 and 4.13. And while the 25-year-old has a 2.57 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in six starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.91 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .319 in four starts on the road. Miami has lost 14 of their last 19 road games with Luzardo on the hill — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 road games with Luzardo pitching as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels rake against left-handed pitching especially when playing at home at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. They rank fifth in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when at home against lefties this season. Los Angeles has also won 11 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (926) versus the Miami Marlins (925) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-23 |
Phillies v. Braves -146 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-146 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (904) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing both starting pitchers Jared Schuster and Taijuan Walker. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (31-19) has won two games in a row after their 8-5 win in the opening game of this series on Thursday. Philadelphia (23-27) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta should continue their momentum as they have won 49 of their last 69 games after a win in their last contest. They have won 60 of their last 89 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have won 56 of their last 80 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Shuster gets the start tonight as he looks to build off his six innings where he allowed only one hit and one run at home against Seattle. While he has a 1-2 record with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in four starts, he has been better at home where he has a 4.50 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .189. The Braves have won 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Philadelphia has lost 10 of their last 13 games after a loss — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Walker who has a 3-2 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in ten starts. And while he has a 3.60 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in four starts at home, those numbers rise to a 7.43 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .294 in six starts on the road. The Phillies have lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have won 44 of their last 63 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (904) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing both starting pitchers Jared Schuster and Taijuan Walker. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-23 |
Orioles v. Yankees -131 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-131 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (968) versus the Baltimore Orioles (967) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: New York (30-21) was on a five-game losing streak before losing the second game of their series with the Orioles by a 9-6 score. Baltimore (32-17) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The New York bullpen blew up by allowing eight runs in the top of the seventh inning to blow the potential save. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They have also won 9 of their last 13 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They give the ball to Schmidt who has a 2-4 record with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing much better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.82 and 3.90 moving forward. New York has won 37 of their last 54 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Baltimore has lost 35 of their last 46 games after a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. And while the Orioles have played four straight Overs, they have then lost 17 of their last 25 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. They counter with Gibson who has a 5-3 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 10 starts. He has struggled on the road where he has a 5.09 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .307 in six starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.80 and 4.54 moving forward.
FINAL TAKE: The Orioles have lost 7 of their last 11 games with Gibson pitching while being priced in the +/- 125 range — and the Yankees have won 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Yankees (968) versus the Baltimore Orioles (967) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-23 |
Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Bryce Elder. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (31-19) has won the first two games in this series after their 8-1 victory on the road on Tuesday. Atlanta (29-19) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have scored 16 runs in the first two games in this series — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. Los Angeles has also played 4 straight Overs when playing on the road. Gonsolin gets his sixth start of the season after posting a 2-1 record with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP this year. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.80 and 4.81 moving forward. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against a right-handed starting pitcher. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after losing their last game. The Over is also 18-7-1 in the Braves last 26 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Elder who has a 3-0 record with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 2.17 ERA along with a 1.24 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in five starts. Elder is also a prime regression candidate with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.65 moving forward. Atlanta has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 19-5-2 in their last 26 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 16 of their last 21 games on the road Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 8* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Bryce Elder. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-23 |
Blue Jays v. Rays -110 |
Top |
20-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (965) listing both starting pitchers Taj Bradley and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (35-14) has won three of their last four games after their 6-4 victory in the opening game of their series with the Blue Jays last night. Toronto (25-23) has lost five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay continues to be the class of the league as they continue to play great baseball after their fantastic start to the season. The Rays have won 39 of their last 57 games after winning their previous game. They have won 40 of their last 52 games at home including 22 of their 26 games at Tropicana Field this season. They have also won 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. Manager Kevin Cash turns to Bradley to make his fifth start of the season. The rookie has a 3-0 record with a 3.54 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He was sent back down to the minors after his first three starts with some injured pitchers returning to the rotation — and that was an opportunity to get accustomed to pitching on five days rest to prepare for an eventual return to the majors. The 22-year-old right-hander struggled in those starts but it looks like he was experimenting with some different pitches. He maintained his great form in his return to the majors last Thursday as he allowed only three hits and two runs in five innings on the road against the Mets. The underlying metrics look great with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.84 and 3.17 moving forward. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are lost 7 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Toronto is getting pummeled by their AL East rivals. After losing three of four at home to the New York Yankees, they then got swept at home in a three-game series against Baltimore. Now here comes the best team in baseball in the Rays — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games after getting upset in their previous game to a divisional rival. Toronto has also lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs. Additionally, they have lost 13 of their last 16 games against division opponents — and they have lost 5 straight to teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays were favored last night with Chris Bassitt facing a cadre of Tampa Bay relievers. Berrios gets the start tonight after allowing three runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last start against the New York Yankees on Thursday. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in nine starts. Berrios has been up and down this season with admittedly some great outings. But he has allowed four or more runs in three of his starts — and they were all on the road. While the 28-year-old has a 2.22 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a .220 opponent’s batting average in four home starts, those numbers rise to a 6.67 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a .296 batting average in his five starts on the road. These disparate home-road splits are consistent with last season when he had a 4.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 16 starts at home but a 6.36 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in 16 starts on the road. The Blue Jays have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 38 of their last 56 games in Tampa Bay against the Rays.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game this season — and they have won 28 of their last 40 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (965) listing both starting pitchers Taj Bradley and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-23 |
Cubs v. Astros -165 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the Chicago Cubs (923) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Justin Steele. THE SITUATION: Houston (22-19) has won five of their last six games after their 6-4 win against the Cubs in the opening game of this series last night. Chicago (19-22) has lost six of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 44 of their last 61 games after a win by two runs or less. And while the Astros closed out their weekend series with the White Sox with a 4-3 victory — they have won 19 of their last 24 games after winning their last two games by two runs or less. They give the ball to Javier who has a 3-1 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in six starts. In three starts at home, the right-hander’s ERA drops to 3.32. Javier was more effective at home last season where he had a 2.26 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a .154 opponent’s batting average in 75 2/3 innings as compared to his 2.84 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a .186 opponent’s batting average in 73 innings on the road. Houston has won 14 of their last 20 home games with Javier pitching and priced as a favorite at -110 or higher. Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They have also lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road after losing four or five of their last six games. They counter with Steele who has a 6-0 record with a 1.82 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in eight starts this year. The left-hander’s ERA does rise to 2.37 in three starts on the road. Last season, while Steele had a 2.78 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 14 home starts, those numbers rose to a 3.78 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in ten starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has won 11 of their last 16 games in Interleague play — and the Cubs have lost 12 of their last 16 road games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. 8* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the Chicago Cubs (923) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Justin Steele. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-23 |
Brewers v. Giants -162 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (906) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Colin Rea. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-17) has won three games in a row after their 6-4 win the in the opening game of this three-game series. Milwaukee (18-140 has lost five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco should build off their momentum as they have won 6 of their last 7 games after winning their previous game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row. They have also won 6 of their last 7 games at home. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, they have won 5 of those games. They give the ball to Cobb who has a 1-1 record with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in six starts this season. The right-hander has been even more effective at home where he boasts a 1.83 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in three starts. His excellence at home for the Giants has continued from last season when he sports a 2.68 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 16 starts at home. Milwaukee has lost 4 straight games after a loss — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after losing two games in a row. They have also lost 4 straight games on the road. They counter with Rea who has a 0-2 record with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in four starts. The Brewers have lost 4 games in a row against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Brewers have lost 4 in a row in San Francisco against the Giants. 8* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (906) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Colin Rea. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-23 |
Cardinals v. Dodgers -131 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (909) listing both starting pitchers Dustin May and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-13) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 6-2 loss at Pittsburgh yesterday. St. Louis (10-16) ended their three-game losing streak with a 6-0 win at San Francisco on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 28 of their last 39 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They return home for the first time scene April 19th after playing their last seven games on the road. They have won 92 of their last 128 games at home at Dodger Stadium. May has a 2-1 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP this season. He was not striking out batters earlier in the season but comes off a season-high six punch outs in his last start in Chicago against the Cubs. The right-hander has a 3.11 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in his career 286 2/3 innings which explains why he is widely considered a likely breakout candidate after missing most of last season with an injury. He faces a Cardinals team that has lost 15 of their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis has lost 7 of their last 9 games following a win. Additionally, they have lost 12 of their last 15 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They stay on the road where they have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They counter with Flaherty who has a 2-2 record with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. But while the right-hander has a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .121 in two starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in his three road starts this season.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 66 of their last 93 games again right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 81 of their last 118 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 8* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (909) listing both starting pitchers Dustin May and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-23 |
Tigers v. Brewers -164 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-164 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (978) versus the Detroit Tigers (977) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Spencer Turnbull. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (15-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 4-2 loss to the Tigers in the opening game of this series. Detroit (8-13) snapped a four-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has rebounded to win 7 of their last 8 games after losing their previous game. They have also won 20 of their last 27 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They send out Lauer tonight who has a 3-1 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in four starts this season. One bad start against St. Louis where he allowed six runs in four innings has skewed the lefty’s early numbers. In 29 starts last year, Lauer had an 11-7 record with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP — and he thrived at home where he sported a 2.56 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206. He should pitch well against this Tigers team roast has lost 5 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Detroit counters with Turnbull who has a 1-3 record with a 7.85 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in four starts as he returns to action after missing all of last season after going under the knife for Tommy John surgery. The Tigers have lost 12 of their last 16 games on the road. They have lost 38 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Brewers have won 5 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (978) versus the Detroit Tigers (977) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Spencer Turnbull. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-24-23 |
White Sox v. Blue Jays -152 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (910) versus the Chicago White Sox (909) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Toronto (13-9) has won two of their last three games after their 5-1 win in New York against the Yankees on Sunday. Chicago (7-15) has lost four in a row — and six of their last seven — after their 4-1 loss at Tampa Bay yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto should continue their momentum as they have won 6 of their last 8 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They return home for the first time since April 16th having won 7 of their last 9 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Blue Jays have also won 40 of their last 57 home games with the Total set from 9 to 10.5. They give the ball to Bassitt who has a 2-2 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in four starts. After a bad opening start on the road at St. Louis where he gave up nine runs in 3 1/3 innings, he has since won two of his next three starts with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. He comes off 6 1/3 scoreless innings at Houston in his recent outing last Tuesday — and his teams have won 22 of their last 30 games when he is pitching with five or six days of rest. The White Sox have lost 4 straight road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 9 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They counter with Lynn who has an 0-2 record with a 7.59 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP so far this season. The right-hander was more effective at home last year where he had a 1.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in nine starts — but those numbers rose to a 1.21 WHIP and a .259 batting average in 12 starts on the road. His teams have lost 21 of their last 28 games on the road with him on the mound as the starter with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has won 6 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (910) versus the Chicago White Sox (909) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-23 |
Cardinals v. Mariners -155 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (929) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Miles Mikolas. THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 5-2 victory against the Cardinals in the opening game of their series last night. St. Louis (8-12) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle has won 44 of their last 65 games against teams with a losing record. Castillo gets his fourth start of the season tonight as he builds on his 2-0 record along with a 0.73 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP. The right-hander was more effective at home last season with Cincinnati and then with the Mariners after being traded for his final 11 starts of the year. In his 12 home starts last season, Castillo had a 2.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .161 as opposed to his 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in 13 starts on the road. He should continue to have success against this Cardinals team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis counters with Mikolas who has an 0-1 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP this season. While the right-hander had a 2.38 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in 14 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 4.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in his 19 games (18 starts) on the road.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. 8* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (929) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Miles Mikolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-23 |
Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Michael Grove. THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-5) has won three of their last four games with their 8-2 victory against the Dodgers in the opening game of this series last night. Los Angeles (7-7) has lost five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and the Over is 7-3-2 in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Taillon gets the ball after posting a disappointing 0-2 record with a 7.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in his first two games in a Chicago uniform. In his 32 starts last season with the New York Yankees, while the right-hander had a 3.47 ERA in 16 starts at home, that number bumped up to a 4.36 ERA in his 16 starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also played 4 straight Overs after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Grove who has been saddled with an 0-1 record along with a 14.73 ERA and a 2.32 WHIP in his first two starts of the season. In his 19 2/3 innings pitching at home at Dodger Stadium last year, the right-hander had a 5.03 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .294.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 4-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 6 games against teams with a winning record. 8* MLB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Michael Grove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-09-23 |
Padres v. Braves OVER 9 |
|
10-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (961) and the Atlanta Braves (962) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Dylan Dodd. THE SITUATION: San Diego (5-4) has won five of their last seven games after their 4-1 victory in the third game of this four-game series. Atlanta (6-3) has lost the last two games in this four-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have played 17 of their last 22 games on the road Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Over is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games on the road. They give the ball to Lugo who made his first start in three seasons last Sunday. The right-handed only gave up one run in seven innings of work against Colorado. Yet I remain skeptical. While he had a 3.41 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 31 2/3 innings at home last season, those numbers rose to a 3.78 ERA and a .242 opponent’s batting average in 33 1/3 innings on the road. In his last nine starts on the road with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range, Lugo’s teams have played 6 of those games Over the Total. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last contests. They counter with Dodd who only allowed one earned run in five innings at St. Louis in his Major League debut on Tuesday. The 24-year-old left-hander is in the Braves rotation only because of injuries to Max Fried and Kyle Wright — or he would probably be getting more seasoning in Triple-A. He spent the majority of his time in Double-A last year — and while he posted a 3.11 ERA in those 46 1/3 innings, his xFIP projected an ERA of 3.87.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have paled 4 of their last 6 games against each other Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing in Atlanta. The Braves have played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* MLB Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (961) and the Atlanta Braves (962) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Dylan Dodd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-08-23 |
Blue Jays v. Angels -115 |
|
5-9 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (924) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (923) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-2) had won four of their last five games before blowing a 3-1 lead in their 4-3 loss to the Blue Jays in the opening game of this series last night. Toronto (5-3) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has still won 6 of their last 7 games at home at Angel Stadium of Anaheim going back to last season. Anderson comes off a strong outing to begin the season as he did not allow a run in six innings of work at Oakland last Saturday. The left-hander had a 15-5 record with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 28 starts and 30 games last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his 24 games (22 starts) at night last season, Anderson registered a 2.54 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214. He should pitch well against a Blue Jays team that has lost 8 of their last 12 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has lost 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Berrios who got hammered for eight runs and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings of work in his first start at Kansas City on Monday. Those eight runs matched the most earned runs he allowed in a start last season — and he has now given up six or more earned runs seven times in his last 28 starts. Despite signing a big contract in the offseason last year (or perhaps, because of …), Berrios was a major disappointment in his first season with Toronto as his 12-7 record came along with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 32 starts. In his 16 starts away from home at the Rogers Centre, he had a 6.36 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and .303 opponent’s batting average.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 8 of their last 12 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 8* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (924) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (923) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-08-23 |
Rangers v. Cubs -115 |
|
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (928) versus the Texas Rangers (927) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Martin Perez. THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-3) has won two games in a row after their 2-0 victory in the opening game of this three-game series last night. Texas (4-3) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago should continue to build some early-season momentum this afternoon as they have won 8 of their last 10 games after winning their previous game. They have also won 6 of their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. The Cubs have also won 8 of their last 10 games at home at Wrigley Field. Steele gets the start as he follows up a strong debut to the season where he pitched six scoreless innings at home against Milwaukee while allowing only three hits. Steele’s best pitch is his slider — and he doubled down on the pitch against the Brewers which helped him punch out eight batters. The 27-year-old left-hander had a 4-7 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 24 starts last season. Steele was more effective at home where he sported a 2.78 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 14 starts as compared to his 3.78 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 on the road. He faces a Rangers team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Texas has lost 21 of their last 29 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 13 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. The Rangers have also lost 35 of their last 50 games on the road when priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Perez who gave up only earned run in 5 2/3 innings in his season debut at home against Philadelphia on Sunday. The left-hander’s velocity on his fastball was down two miles per hour from his 92.7 MPH average last season. That is only one cause for concern for the 31-year-old who benefited greatly from the mush-ball from last season which helped take potential home runs into flyouts. Perez boasted a 12-8 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 32 starts last year. But the deeper sabermetrics call for significant regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 3.80 from his underlying statistics. The Cubs have won 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have lost 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a losing record — and Chicago has won 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (928) versus the Texas Rangers (927) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Martin Perez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-07-23 |
Blue Jays v. Angels -125 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (964) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (963) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Sandoval and Chris Bassitt. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 4-3 win at Seattle on Wednesday. Toronto (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 6-3 win at Kansas City yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should keep their winning streak going as they have won 8 of their last 11 games after a victory. They have also won 6 games in a row at home at Angel Stadium of Anaheim going back to last season. Sandoval comes off a strong outing to begin the season as he allowed only one run and four base runners in five innings of work at Oakland last Saturday. The left-hander had a 6-9 record with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 27 starts last season. In his 14 starts at night last season, Sandoval registered a 2.54 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244. He should pitch well against a Blue Jays team that has lost 8 of their last 11 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has lost 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Bassitt who got hammered for nine runs and ten hits in 3 1/3 innings of work in his first start at St. Louis. The right-hander’s velocity was down in Spring Training which probably explains why he got hit so hard in his opening start with the Blue Jays. In 20 starts at night for the New York Mets last year, he had a 4.00 ERA.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 4 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 8* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (964) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (963) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Sandoval and Chris Bassitt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-07-23 |
Cardinals v. Brewers -145 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (954) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (953) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (5-1) has won five games in a row after their 7-6 win against the New York Mets on Wednesday. St. Louis (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 5-2 loss to Atlanta on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 4 straight games after winning their previous game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. Woodruff takes the mound tonight after allowing only one earned run in six innings of work in his previous start in Chicago against the Cubs last Saturday. The right-hander posted a 13-4 record last season with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 27 starts. Woodruff did his best work at home where he boasted a 2.06 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.10 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in 14 starts on the road. The Brewers have won 19 of their last 27 home games when priced as a favorite at -110 or higher with Woodruff as their starting pitcher. He should pitch well against this Cardinals team that has lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last 6 games at home. St. Louis has lost 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Flaherty who did not allow an earned run in five innings of work in his first start of the season on Sunday against Toronto. But the right-hander struggled with his command as he issued seven walks and hit a batter. While he did not allow a base hit, his velocity was down 2.5 miles per hour across the board. Flaherty had a 2-1 record with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his 36 injuries last year. But while he had a 3.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 at home, those numbers rose to a 4.80 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in his 15 innings on the road. The Cardinals have lost 14 of their last 22 road games with Flaherty their starting pitcher and priced as the money-line underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Brewers have won 17 of their last 22 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (954) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (953) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-07-23 |
A's v. Rays -1.5 |
|
5-9 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (961) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Ken Waldichuk. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-0) is the last remaining unbeaten team this season with six straight victories to start the season after a 7-2 victory at Washington on Wednesday. Oakland (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 6-4 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay should continue to feed off the moment they have established this season. The Rays have won 4 straight games after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have won 4 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their previous game. They have won 6 of their last 7 games after an off day. Eflin makes his second start for his new team after holding Detroit to just one run in five innings of work last Saturday. Eflin was a solid starting pitcher for Philadelphia last season where he posted a 3-5 record along with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. What the Rays’ were intrigued by was his underlying metrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.81 last year. The right-hander is now pitching behind a significantly better defensive group of players than what he had with the Phillies. Tampa Bay has a great track record in getting more out of their pitching staff — and it was a big statement that the frugal organization signed him to a three-year deal. He should thrive against this A’s lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .201 batting average and an OPS of .622 this season. The Rays have won 36 of their last 53 games at home — and they have won 30 of their last 41 games against teams with a winning percentage of .400 or lower. Oakland has lost 7 of their last 9 games after losing their previous game. They have also lost 19 of their last 26 games after an off day. The A’s have also lost 38 of their last 56 games on the road. They counter with Waldichuk who gave up six runs and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings of work at home against the Los Angeles Angels in his first start on Sunday. The 25-year-old left-hander had a 2-2 record with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in seven starts last season. But while Waldichuk enjoyed a 3.63 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .186 in three starts at the pitcher-friendly Ring Central Coliseum, those numbers exploded to a 6.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in four starts on the road. Now he faces a hot-hitting Rays team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .284 batting average and an OPS of 888 this season. Waldichuk lacks a pitch to punch out right-handed batters — and Tampa Bay ranked fourth in MLB last season in weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers last year while also ranking ninth in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against lefties. The Rays have won 14 of their last 17 games against left-hand starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is priced above my -150 threshold so I won’t consider the money-line play. But I do like the value with the Rays minus the -1.5 Run-Line that lowers the investment price. Tampa Bay has won all six of their games by four or more runs (while being priced above -150 in each of their contests) — and three of the A’s four losses have been by more than one run. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Rays (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (961) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Ken Waldichuk. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-22 |
Phillies v. Astros -140 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:03 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Zack Wheeler. THE SITUATION: Houston (116-58) took a 3-2 lead in the World Series with their 3-2 victory on the road against the Phillies on Thursday. Philadelphia (98-80) has lost three of their last four games to reach the brink of elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has been the best team in baseball since the All-Star Game — and they have won 13 of their last 15 games with a 10-2 mark in the postseason. The Astros have won 38 of their last 52 games after winning a game by two runs or less. They have won 30 of their last 42 games after a game where they did not score more nor allow more than three runs. They have won 44 of their last 59 games after not allowing more than two runs — and they have won 30 of their last 40 games after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. They return home where they have won 43 of their last 59 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games in the playoffs. Houston has also won 15 of their last 19 home games when listed as a money-line favorite priced from -100 to -150. Furthermore, the Astros have won 49 of their last 66 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 11 of their last 14 playoff games when leading in the series including all five of those circumstances this postseason. Valdez gets the start after allowing only one earned run in his last two starts in these playoffs. He has a 2-0 record this postseason with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in three starts. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his excellent form with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.18 and 2.24. With 62 2/3 innings in his 12 career postseason appearances, he should be ready for this moment. Houston has won 9 of their last 10 games with Valdez as their starting pitcher following two straight starts when he did not allow more than one earned run. The Astros have also won 20 of their last 25 games with Valdez pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. The Phillies are hitting only .202 in their last seven games (including getting no-hit in Game Four) with a .208 On-Base Percentage. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games in Interleague play against left-handed starting pitchers. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and they have lost 10 of their last 16 games after playing three straight Unders. They have also lost 21 of their last 29 road games in Interleague play. Philly needed the day off after their bullpen pitched at least four innings of each of the three games played at Citizens Bank Field — but they have lost 7 of their last 11 games after a three-game stretch where their bullpen pitched at least four innings in each game. Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies despite a big drop in his velocity in his last start on Saturday in Game Two of the World Series. He got hit hard for five runs (four earned) in five innings. A velocity drop in a World Series game is a major red flag since he was pumping with adrenalin. The team fears that his loss of velocity is a result of perhaps coming back too soon from his arm injury in September. As it is, his xFIP of 3.72 in this postseason is below his standards. In his 29 regular season starts, Wheeler had a 12-7 record with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He was very tough to beat at home where he had a 1.85 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 in 16 starts. But in his 13 starts on the road, he had a 3.84 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253. Philadelphia has lost 4 of their last 6 games with Wheeler pitching in Interleague play. Houston has won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a regular season WHIP of 1.10 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have lost 5 of their last 7 games when avenging two straight losses to their opponent where they did not score more than two runs. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Zack Wheeler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-22 |
Astros v. Phillies OVER 7.5 |
|
0-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:03 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (957) and the Philadelphia Phillies (958) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers, Jr. and Ranger Suarez. THE SITUATION: Houston (114-57) evened the World Series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 5-2 victory at home against the Phillies. Philadelphia (97-78) returns home to host the next three games of this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Last night’s game was postponed because of rain which allowed Phillies’ manager Rob Thomson to bypass using Noah Syndergaard and go back to Suarez as his Game Three starting pitcher. Philadelphia has played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. They have also played 4 straight Overs after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Phillies return home to Citizens Bank Park having played 7 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total. The Over is also 15-7-1 in their last 23 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. Suarez had a 10-7 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 29 starts in the regular season. But the deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.11 and 3.82 moving forward. The left-hander was more effective on the road where he sports a 3.20 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 16 starts — but in his 13 starts at home, he owns a 4.27 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a .272 opponent’s batting average. The Phillies have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Suarez pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a Houston lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB since September 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage on the road against left-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB since September 1st in weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. The Astros have won ten of their last eleven games — and they have scored at least five runs in four straight games. The Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games in Interleague play on the road against teams with a winning record. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Lance McCullers who had a 4-2 record in the regular season with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.50 moving forward. He did his best pitching at home in the regular season where he had a 1.50 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .178 in five starts — but in his three starts on the road, he had a 3.57 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .268. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 8th and 10th this season in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in Philadelphia Over the Total. 20* MLB Houston-Philadelphia Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (957) and the Philadelphia Phillies (958) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers, Jr. and Ranger Suarez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-22 |
Padres v. Phillies OVER 8 |
|
6-10 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Bailey Falter. THE SITUATION: San Diego (95-77) looks to rebound from their 4-2 loss on the road to the Phillies yesterday. Philadelphia (94-77) took a 2-1 series lead in this best-of-seven National League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 4-0-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games after not scoring more than two runs in their previous game. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after losing their previous game. Furthermore, the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games on the road — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Bob Melvin turns to Clevinger who had a 7-7 record in the regular season with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. While he thrived at home with a 2.88 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204, those numbers skyrocket to a 5.46 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 on the road. The deeper sabermetrics also call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.49 and 4.76 moving forward. The Padres have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with Clevinger on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a Phillies team that has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia pounds right-handed pitching at home. Since June 1st — and since September 1st — the Phillies rank 1st and 2nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at Citizens Bank Park against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has won four of their last five games — and they have played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. They have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total — and the Over is 18-8-1 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record. The Over is also 12-4-2 in their last 18 home games in the postseason. They counter with Falter who had a 6-4 record in the regular season with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. The lefty struggled at home where he was saddled with a 5.49 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .293 in 39 1/3 innings. Manager Rob Thomson will likely give him a short leash before turning to Noah Syndergaard. Thor had a 10-10 record in the regular season with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. But the right-hander’s SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.39 and 4.29 moving forward. Thomson rolled the dice last night by pitching Jose Alvarado one inning and then Serathony Dominguez two innings to secure the victory. While Alvarado can probably offer an inning tonight, it may be risky to ask much more from him — or much of anything from Dominguez — which will leave their bullpen without their top two arms. The Padres usually thrive against left-handed pitching. San Diego ranks 6th and 8th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since the start of the season on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank 5th in those metrics since September 1st.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 11-3-1 in the Padres’ last 15 games against left-handed starting pitchers (even after yesterday’s game that just could not get to seven combined runs) — and the Over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Bailey Falter. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-22 |
Padres v. Phillies OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (971) and the Philadelphia Phillies (972) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Ranger Suarez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (95-76) evened this best-of-seven series with their 8-5 victory in Game Two of the National League Championship Series on Wednesday. Philadelphia (93-77) had won three-straight games before this loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have won five of their last seven contests — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Bob Melvin turns to Musgrove tonight who had a 14-5 record in the regular season along with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 30 starts. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.45 and 3.47 from his regular season numbers. And despite two great starts in the postseason, his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.27 and 3.63 moving forward. In his 19 2/3 career innings in the playoffs, he has a 3.66 ERA — and his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.84 and 3.83 moving forward. Even including his seven shutout innings on the road against the Mets on October 9th in the NL Wildcard Series, he still has a 3.86 ERA in his last seven starts on the road. The Padres have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Musgrove on the mound priced in the +/- 125 range. He allowed six earned runs in six innings in his lone start against the Phillies this season. Philadelphia pounds right-handed pitching at home. Since June 1st — and since September 1st — the Phillies rank 1st and 2nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at Citizens Bank Park against right-handed starting pitchers. They have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. They have played 5 straight home games Over the Total — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record. The Over is also 12-3-2 in their last 17 home games in the postseason. They counter with Suarez who had a 10-7 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 29 regular season starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.11 and 3.82 moving forward. He demonstrated nerves in his first playoff appearance on October 11th where he walked five batters in 3 1/3 innings before being pulled. He has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.27 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .272 in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.20 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 on the road. The Phillies have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with Suarez as their starting pitcher. He faces a Padres team that thrives against left-handed pitching. San Diego ranks 6th and 8th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since the start of the season on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank 5th in those metrics since September 1st.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 12-3-1 in the Padres’ last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (971) and the Philadelphia Phillies (972) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Ranger Suarez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-22 |
Yankees v. Astros -133 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the New York Yankees (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Houston (110-56) has won six games in a row after their 4-2 victory against the Yankees in the opening game of the ALCS. New York (102-66) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston was priced in the -155 range when I went to bed last night after writing the Reports for Thursday Night Football. The price has dropped since then with the Astros now priced under my -150 price threshold. Let’s attack. Houston has won 41 of their last 58 games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range — and they have won 41 of their last 56 games at home. They have won 44 of their last 64 games after a victory — and they have won 36 of their last 49 games after winning their last game by two runs or less. And while the Astros have played three straight Unders, they have then won 26 of their last 33 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Valdez gets the start after posting a 17-6 record in the regular season with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 31 starts. He set a Major League record with 25 Quality Starts in the regular season — so he will, at worst, keep Houston in the game before handing the ball over to the bullpen where the Astros have a distinct edge. The left-hander led MLB in ground-ball rate which will likely stymie this Yankees team that is too reliant on home runs. In his last seven starts at home including his start against Houston in the ALDS, he has a 2.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. The Astros have won 18 of their last 23 games when Valdez is pitching as a money-line favorite priced from -100 to -150 including seven of those eight games this season. He faces a cold Yankees lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .175 batting average, a .214 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .609 during that span. New York is hitting just .223 against left-handed pitchers with a .312 on-base percentage with an OPS of .703. They have lost 7 of their last 10 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has now lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games in the ALCS. I consider the Yankees’ bullpen to be a time bomb ready to explode. Aroldis Chapman has been ineffective which cost him his closer role — and after missing a mandatory team meeting, he is in the doghouse. Manager Aaron Boone has lost Michael King, Chad Green, and now Scott Effross to season-ending injuries. Clay Holmes has been outstanding for most of the season (outside an August slump) — but he just got a cortisone shot in his shoulder before the ALDS. Boone is relying heavily on him along with Jonathan Loaisiga (who struggled in the first half) and Wandy Peralta who is now being elevated to a role he did not have in the regular season. None of these three relievers have significant late-inning experience in the postseason. Severino gets the start with his 7-3 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 19 starts. He allowed three runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings on October 15th in Game Three of the ALDS against Cleveland. In his career 38 innings in the postseason, the right-hander has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP with 18 bases-on-balls. The Astros’ bullpen has a 0.77 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP in these playoffs with only two runs allowed in 23 1/3 innings with 29 strikeouts and only six walks. They have one of the best closers in the game in Ryan Pressly — and manager Dusty Baker has two emergency blanket pitchers in Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy coming from the starting rotation who can pitch multiple innings.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t like these circumstances for the Yankees — going from two rainouts with Cleveland to no off day to start the ALCS on the road in Houston. I suspect that before they know what hit them, they are down 0-2 in this series to a team that has owned them. New York lost the 2015 Wildcard Game along with the playoff series in 2017 and 2019 to the Astros. They have lost 5 in a row at Minute Maid Park — and Houston has won 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the New York Yankees (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-22 |
Yankees v. Guardians +1.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Guardians (918) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (917). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (96-71) has won six of their last seven games after their come-from-behind 6-5 win against the Yankees last night. New York (100-65) trails 2-1 in this best-of-five series tonight and must win to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GUARDIANS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: As Philadelphia and San Diego have demonstrated in this round of the playoffs, full-season records mean nothing in these short series. Starting pitching, the bullpen, and momentum — these intangibles all take on heightened importance. That said, Cleveland has been as good as any team in MLB with a 28-7 record since September 5th. They have won 20 of their last 27 games after winning their last game — and they have won 20 of their last 30 games after a victory by only one run. They have also won 8 of their last 10 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They stay at home for Game Four where they have won 16 of their last 21 games — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games in the ALDS. Manager Terry Francona turns to Quantrill who has a 15-5 record this season with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 32 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in 19 starts as compared to his 3.53 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a .282 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Cleveland has won 16 of their last 21 games with Quantrill on the hill in the second half of the season — and they have won 15 of their last 20 games at home with Quantrill their starting pitcher. Additionally, the Guardians have pulled off 9 upsets in their last 12 games with Quantrill pitching as a money-line underdog. He faces a reeling Yankees team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Quantrill will also be supported by perhaps the best bullpen in baseball with several outstanding pitchers. Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.75 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP at home this year — and in their last seven games, their bullpen has a 0.63 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP. New York has lost four of their last five games including the last two games in this series. They have lost 12 of their last 18 games after losing four of their last five games. Additionally, they have lost 17 of their last 22 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 4 in a row in the playoffs on the road. They counter with Cole who has a 13-8 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 33 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he enjoys a 3.20 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 16 starts — but in his 17 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.81 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 17 starts. Of concern for Cole has a 4.02 ERA since the All-Star Break — and he has allowed four earned runs in three of his last five starts. He faces a Guardians group that has won 6 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have lost 20 of their last 32 games when attempting to avenge a one-run loss. These team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line I am recommending for this play. I’m fine with anyone opting to take Cleveland with the money-line — but I always invest in the insurance offered by the +1.5 Run-Line if the price is no higher than -150. While two of the Guardians’ last seven losses have been by one run, four of the last twelve Yankees’ victories have been by only one run. Additionally, in New York’s last 38 games when priced above my -150 price threshold, they have only covered the -1.5 Run-Line 16 times with 17 straight-up losses and 5 one-run wins where they failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Divisional Series Run-Line of the Year with the Cleveland Guardians (918) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (917). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-22 |
Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 |
Top |
3-8 |
Win
|
108 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 2:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (102-63) looks to force a decisive fifth game in this best-of-five National League Divisional Series after their 9-1 loss on the road against the Phillies yesterday. Philadelphia (91-76) can advance to the NL Championship Series with a victory today.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by eight or more runs against an NL East rival. Atlanta has also played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game including four of these last five circumstances. And while the Braves have not hit a home run in their last two games, they have then played 7 straight Overs after not hitting a home run in two straight games. Additionally, the Over is 19-5-2 in their last 26 games on the road — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They have also played 19 of their last 29 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They give the ball to Morton who has a 9-6 record with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 31 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.05 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 16 starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.72 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in 15 starts on the road. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Morton on the mound priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. The veteran has faded in the second half of the season with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in his last six starts. The Braves have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when Morton is tasked to end a team losing streak. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 1st and 2nd in MLB since both July 1st and September 1st in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Philadelphia has played 4 straight Overs at home against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset victory as a home underdog — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a win by four or more runs. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Phillies have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 11-3-2 in their last 16 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Syndergaard who has a 10-10 record with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 25 games (23 starts). The sabermetrics call for regression with Syndergaard’s SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.39 and 4.29 moving forward. Thor has been clobbered in his two daytime starts this year with a 7.20 ERA, a 1.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .364. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when avenging a loss to their opponent where they did not score more than one run. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Philadelphia. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-22 |
Dodgers -118 v. Padres |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (112-52) has lost four of their last six games after their 5-3 loss at home to the Padres on Wednesday. San Diego (92-75) evened this best-of-five series at 1-1 with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Dodgers have rebounded to win 50 of their last 70 games. They have also won 50 of their last 72 games after an off day. They now go on the road for the next two games where they have won 40 of their last 58 games — and they have won 21 of their last 26 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Gonsolin gets the start with a 16-1 record along with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 24 starts. He has pitched only two innings since August 23rd after dealing with a right forearm strain — and he will be limited to a 75-pitch count. Manager Dave Roberts is calling his number given his great regular season along with a 2-0 record along with a 0.71 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP in two starts with 14 strikeouts and only one walk. The Dodgers have won 11 of their last 12 games with Gonsolin on the mound after a loss. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games on the road with Gonsolin on the mound — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games with Gonsolin pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. The Dodgers bullpen has a 2.35 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP on the road this year — and Roberts will also have starting pitchers like Andrew Heaney at his disposal. Los Angeles has won 29 of their last 39 games when priced no higher than -150. The Padres have underachieved with their bats all season -- even after picking up Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. They rank 25th and 20th in MLB since September 1st in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a victory — and they have 4 of their last 5 games coming off an upset victory priced at +130 or higher against an NL West rival. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They return home to Petco Park where they are only scoring 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .230 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .665. The Padres have lost 21 of their last 32 home games as an underdog — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games at home in the postseason. Furthermore, they have lost 10 of their last 12 games in the NLDS — and they have lost 4 straight home games in the NLDS. They counter with Snell who has an 8-10 record along with a 1.20 WHIP in 34 starts this season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he owns a 3.56 ERA and a .227 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts as compared to his 3.06 ERA and .198 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts on the road. San Diego has lost 10 of their last 15 home games with Snell their starting pitcher. In his three starts against Los Angeles this season, Snell has an 0-1 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. The Padres have lost 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog with Snell on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers own San Diego with 41 victories in their last 58 games against them — and they have 4 of their last games against them at Petco Park. 25* MLB NL West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-22 |
Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7 |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (933) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (934) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: San Diego (91-75) lost the opening game of the NL Divisional Series in a 5-3 loss to the Dodgers. Los Angeles (112-51) looks to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-five series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Despite the loss yesterday, the Padres are finally starting to score runs to meet the potential of their offense after trading for Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. San Diego ranks 6th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage on the road against left-handed pitchers — but they only rank 23rd in MLB in weighted Runs Created on the road against lefties for the season. But the Regression Gods may have already paid a visit to this team -- since September with them scoring more of these runners they are getting on base. Since September 1st, the Padres rank 5th on the road against left-handed pitching in weighted on-base percentage — and they also rank 5th on the road against left-handed starting pitching in weighted Runs Created during that span. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Over the Total with the Total set no higher than 7. Additionally, San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in October — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the postseason. And while the Dodgers score 5.2 Runs-Per-Game, the Padres have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who score 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. Darvish gets the start with his 16-8 record along with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 30 starts. He does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.60 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 — but those numbers rise to a 3.50 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in his 17 starts on the road. San Diego has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Darvish on the mound with the Total set no higher than 7. Darvish also has a career 4.50 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP in eight playoff starts. He faces a Dodgers team that struggled with their bats since September with their huge lead over their National League competition. But Los Angeles still led MLB in both weighed on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers in the regular season — and they ranked 3rd and 1st in those metrics since July 1st. The Over is 7-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games in the playoffs. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 or less. They counter with Kershaw who has a 12-3 record with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 22 starts. The veteran southpaw has not been quite as filthy at home this season where he has a 2.39 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a .221 opponent’s batting average in 11 starts as opposed to his 2.17 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191 on the road. Kershaw was effective in the 2020 postseason — but he remains a future Hall of Fame whose playoff performances have been the lone blemish on his resume. He has a career record of 12-12 in the postseason with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Kershaw pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -175 to -250.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Dodgers Stadium. With the Total set just at 7, expect at least one of these pitchers to struggle against these potent lineups. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (933) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (934) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-22 |
Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 9:37 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (923) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (111-51) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 6-1 win against Colorado to close out their regular season. San Diego (91-74) advanced to the National League Divisional Series with their 6-0 win at New York against the Mets on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 14 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also won 40 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They host the first two games of this best-of-five series at Dodger Stadium where they have won 41 of their last 52 games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 home games in the NLDS. Furthermore, this dominant team has won 69 of their last 101 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Dave Roberts gives the ball to Urias who has a 17-7 record with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 31 starts. The left-hander has been very tough when pitching at home where he has a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in 14 starts as compared to his 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 on the road. In his 13 starts since the All-Star Break, Urias has a 1.29 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179. The Dodgers have won 29 of their last 34 games with Urias on the mound in the second half of the season. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Padres have also lost 4 straight games in the NLDS — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road in the NLDS. They counter with Clevinger who has a 7-7 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 23 games (22 starts). The right-hander has been effective when pitching at home at the spacious Petco Park with a 2.88 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in nine starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.46 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 on the road. The Padres have lost 4 straight games when Clevinger is their starting pitcher when priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. Los Angeles has won 53 of their last 71 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 117 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 37 of those games — and in their 80 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 67 times. San Diego has only been priced as a money-line underdog of +145 or higher 11 times this season. While they have pulled five upsets, under those circumstances, all six of their losses have been by more than one run. Lastly, the Dodgers have owned the Padres this season with 14 victories in 19 games — and they covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of those wins. 25* MLB NL West Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (923) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-22 |
Padres v. Mets -131 |
Top |
6-0 |
Loss |
-131 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: New York (102-62) forced a decisive final game in this best-of-three Wildcard Playoff series with their 7-3 victory against the Padres yesterday. San Diego (90-74) has lost two of three and five of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mets have won 44 of their last 64 games at home at Citi Field — and they have won 12 of their last 16 games at home against teams with a winning record. They turn to Bassitt tonight to keep their season alive. The right-hander has a 15-9 record this year with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 30 starts. Bassitt has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.95 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 16 starts as opposed to his 4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 on the road. In his 13 starts since the All-Star Break, Bassitt sports a 2.94 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. The Padres have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. They counter with Musgrove who has a 10-7 record with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.86 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 16 starts as compared to his 3.01 ERA and .229 opponent’s batting average of .229. Since the All-Star Break, Musgrove’s numbers have declined with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.23 along with an opponent’s batting average of .254. His teams have lost 18 of their last 26 games when Musgrove is their starting pitcher priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 18 of their last 25 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 38 of their last 53 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Mets (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-22 |
Padres v. Mets -145 |
Top |
7-1 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (940) versus the San Diego Padres (939) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: New York (101-61) ended the season on a three-game winning streak after their 9-2 victory against Washington on Wednesday. San Diego (89-73) comes off an 8-1 loss to San Francisco on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 20 of their last 27 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They host this best-of-three series at Citi Field where they have won 43 of their last 62 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against winning teams. Additionally, they have won 20 of their last 29 games when priced as a -100 to -150 money-line favorite. The oddsmakers have installed the over/under at a rare 6 for this game, the Mets have won 33 of their last 45 games when the Total is set at 6.5 or lower. Scherzer gets the ball for manager Buck Showalter. The right-hander has an 11-5 record with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 23 starts. He has been very tough when pitching at home where he owns a 1.67 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in ten starts. The Mets have won 5 of their last 6 games at home with Scherzer on the mound when priced up to -150 as the favorite. He faces a underachieving Padres’ lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. On the road against right-handed starting pitchers since September 1st, San Diego ranks a middling 12th and 14th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. The Padres have lost 10 of their last 13 playoff games — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. They have also lost 38 of their last 54 road games with the Total set at 6.5 or less. They counter with Darvish who has a 16-8 record with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 30 starts. And while the right-hander has a 2.60 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a .188 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts at home, those numbers rise to a 3.50 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a .222 opponent’s batting average on the road. San Diego has lost 13 of their last 19 road games with Darvish their starting pitcher as an underdog priced up to +150. In seven career postseason starts, he has a 2-5 record with a 5.18 ERA.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets rank 7th in MLB since September 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York has won 38 of their last 52 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 18 of their last 24 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB American League Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Mets (940) versus the San Diego Padres (939) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-22 |
Yankees +100 v. Rangers |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (969) versus the Texas Rangers (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Glenn Otto. THE SITUATION: New York (99-62) split their two games with the Rangers yesterday after winning Game One by a 5-4 score before losing the nightcap by a 3-2 score. Texas (67-94) snapped a seven-game losing streak with the win last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York plays the final game of the regular season having won 20 of their last 28 games. They are locked into the second seed in the American League with a bye in the Wildcard round — but manager Aaron Boone will still want to get his good relievers work since they are getting the weekend off. Winning this game gets the team to the century mark as well which is a nice accomplishment. New York has won 4 straight games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Yankees have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have won 41 of their last 58 games against teams with a losing record. German gets the ball this afternoon — and he will want to pitch well to make his case for how he will be used in the postseason. The right-hander has a 2-4 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 14 games (13 starts). He has been more effective on the road with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in seven games on the road as compared to his 3.78 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in seven starts at home. He should pitch well against this Rangers lineup that has lost 17 of their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Texas is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .173 batting average, a .226 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .556 during that span. The Rangers have still lost 27 of their last 36 games — and they have lost 20 of their last 28 games after a victory in their last game. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games at home. They counter with Otto who has a 6-10 record with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 26 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 4.06 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .233 — but those numbers rise to a 5.63 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 opponent’s batting average in 11 starts at home. He faces a Yankees team that has won 10 of their last 14 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Texas has lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Yankees (969) versus the Texas Rangers (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Glenn Otto. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-22 |
Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-112 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (80-74) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-9 loss on the road against the Red Sox in the second game of this series. Boston (73-81) snapped their six-game losing streak with last night’s win.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have allowed at least six runs in four straight games — and they have scored at least six runs in four of their last five contests. The first two games of this series have both seen 22 combined runs after Baltimore won Game One by a 14-8 score. The Orioles have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least seven runs in their last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in two straight games. And in their last 7 games after playing two straight games where at least 15 combined runs were scored, they have then played 6 of those games Over the Total. They have played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against division opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Kremer gets the ball tonight with an 8-5 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 20 games (19 starts). The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.28 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 when pitching at home, those numbers rise to a 3.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in 10 starts on the road. Baltimore has played 3 of their last 4 road games Over the Total with Kremer pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Boston has played 5 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games at home Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. They have played 4 straight games at home Over the Total — and they have played 25 of their last 36 home games Over the Total in September. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Hill who has a 7-7 record with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 24 starts. The veteran lefty seems to be wearing down as the season closes since he has allowed four or five runs in four of his last five starts. In his last five starts, he has a 5.96 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305. He has been less effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.87 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .293 in 10 starts as opposed to his 3.80 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .240 opponent’s batting average in his 14 starts on the road. Boston has played 11 of their last 17 games at home Over the Total with Hill priced as a -110 or higher favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Manager Brandon Hyde is going with a right-handed dominant starting lineup tonight against Hill — and Baltimore is scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .306 batting average, a .354 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .900. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-22 |
Rays v. Guardians -147 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-147 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Guardians (966) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (965) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Corey Kluber. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (86-67) has won seven-straight games after their 10-4 win at Texas on Sunday. Tampa Bay (84-69) has lost two in a row — and five of their last seven — after a 7-1 loss to Toronto on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GUARDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in MLB with 18 wins in their last 21 games to seize control of the AL Central division. The Guardians have won 14 of their last 17 games after winning their last game — and they have won 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Cleveland has also won 6 straight games after an off day. Furthermore, the Guardians have won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Bieber who has a 12-8 record with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 29 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding in the second half of the season with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in his last 12 starts. He also has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in 11 starts as opposed to his 1.07 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average on the road. Cleveland has won 8 of their last 10 home games with Bieber on the mound priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. He faces a cold Rays lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .226 batting average, a .310 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .645 during that span. Tampa Bay has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 8 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Kluber who has a 10-9 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 29 starts. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he sports a 3.71 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in 15 starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .283 in 14 starts on the road. Since the All-Star Break, Kluber has a 5.18 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .295 opponent’s batting average. Tampa Bay has lost 10 of their last 15 road games with Kluber priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 batting average, a .333 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .790 during that span. The Guardians have won 13 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Cleveland Guardians (966) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (965) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Corey Kluber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-22 |
Astros v. Orioles UNDER 7.5 |
|
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the Baltimore Orioles (966) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Dean Kremer. THE SITUATION: Houston (99-52) had their four-game winning streak snapped after a 2-0 loss against the Orioles in the opening game of this four-game series. Baltimore (78-71) has won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have only allowed six combined runs in their last five games -- and they have not allowed more than two runs in any of those games. They have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 37-14-5 in their last 56 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games on the road — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total when priced as a favorite up to -150. Additionally, the Under is 13-5-3 in their last 21 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Urquidy who has a 13-7 record with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 27 starts. The right-hander sports a 3.75 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in his ten starts after the All-Star Break. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.87 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts as opposed to his 4.04 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home. The Astros have played 10 of their last 15 road games with Urquidy pitching as a road favorite priced up to -150. He faces an Orioles team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .212 batting average, a .294 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .610. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after a victory. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They counter with Kremer who has a 7-5 record with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 19 games (18 starts). He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 as compared to his 3.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in ten starts on the road. He also thrives at night where he has a 2.65 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 12 games (11 starts). The Orioles have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total with Kremer their starting pitcher in a night game. The Under is 12-2-3 in the Astros’ last 17 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston is scoring only 4.3 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers. They rank 23rd and 20th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the Baltimore Orioles (966) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Dean Kremer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-22 |
Guardians v. White Sox -123 |
|
8-2 |
Loss |
-123 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Cleveland Guardians (971) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Triston McKenzie. THE SITUATION: Chicago (76-72) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 10-7 loss to the Guardians in 11 innings last night. Cleveland (81-67) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This is a must-win game for Chicago after losing the opening game of this three-game series. The White Sox are now five-games behind the Guardians in the American League Central — but winning the final two games of this series would pull them within three games with 16 games left on their schedule after Thursday. Chicago was priced as a -175 money-line favorite last night — and they have bounced-back to win 6 of their last 9 games after getting upset by a divisional rival when priced at -150 or higher in their last game. The White Sox have won 6 in a row after losing their previous game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. With manager Tony La Russa on medical leave, the team has been playing well as of late — they have still won 13 of their last 19 games even after last night’s loss. The bullpen let the team down last night by blowing a 3-1 lead in the top of the seventh inning before allowing seven runs in extra innings. But the team gets Lynn on the hill tonight who is in a great groove right now. He has a 7-5 record with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 18 starts. Since the All-Star Break, he has a 2.13 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in 11 starts. Lynn has struck out 84 batters and walked only seven in those 72 2/3 innings. The sabermetrics have been calling for improvement from his baseline season numbers — his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.16 and 3.31 moving forward. In his eight starts at home, he has a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .217 as compared to a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in ten starts on the road. Chicago has won 23 of their last 33 games at home with Lynn on the mound. They have also won 8 of their last 11 games with Lynn looking to end a team’s losing streak. Cleveland has lost 9 of their last 12 games after upsetting their last opponent in a divisional matchup when priced as a +130 or higher money-line underdog. And while they have scored 21 combined runs in their last two games, they have then lost 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least eight runs in two straight games. They counter with McKenzie with a 10-11 record with a 3.08 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 28 games (27 starts). The sabermetrics are calling for some regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.74 and 3.93 moving forward. He has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.94 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 11 starts — but in his 17 games (16 starts) on the road, those numbers do rise to a 3.18 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204. Even more concerning are his numbers at night where he has a 4.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in 13 starts. Cleveland has lost 11 of their last 18 games with McKenzie on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have beaten the Guardians in 4 of their last 5 meetings against them. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Cleveland Guardians (971) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Triston McKenzie. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-22 |
Red Sox v. Reds +1.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-150 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Reds (928) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Boston Red Sox (927) listing both starting pitchers Nick Lodolo and Brayan Bello. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (58-89) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 3-0 victory at St. Louis on Sunday. Boston (71-75) has won two of their last three games after their 13-3 win against Kansas City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Cincinnati has won 6 of their last 7 games after shutting out their last opponent. The Reds have won 7 of their last 9 games in Interleague play — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home against American League squads. Lodolo gets the start with his 4-6 record along with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.15 and 3.29 moving forward. In his ten starts since the All-Star Break, the 7th pick in the 2018 draft has a 2.95 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213. In his ten starts at home, the 24-year-old has a 2.77 ERA. Cincinnati has won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Lodolo on the hill with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range — and they have won 4 in a row with Lodolo pitching at home as an underdog. He faces a Red Sox team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Boston has lost 6 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 10 runs in their last game. They have lost 6 of their last 8 games after an off day. Furthermore, the Red Sox have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Bello who has a 1-6 record with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 10 games including eight starts. While he has a 4.13 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and a .293 opponent’s batting average at home, those numbers rise to a 7.07 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .315 in his 14 innings on the road. Boston has lost 7 of their last 8 games with Bello on the bump.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not even take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking in this game. In the Reds’ last 6 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher, they have covered the +1.5 Run-Line 5 times with two upset wins. The Red Sox are looking to next season being out of the playoff race. They have been priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 threshold 23 times this season. While they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 11 of those games, they have been upset in 7 of those games with 5 of their wins being by just one run. Taking Cincinnati with the money-line is fine — but since the price with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line is in my -150 price range in many locations, that is my preferred investment strategy for this situation. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Run-Line Deal with the Cincinnati Reds (928) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Boston Red Sox (927) listing both starting pitchers Nick Lodolo and Brayan Bello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-22 |
Yankees v. Brewers +1.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (930) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (929) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (76-67) had their three-game winning streak snapped in their 4-1 loss at St. Louis on Wednesday. New York (87-56) has won four in a row after their 5-3 victory at Boston on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Yankees have steadied the ship after a listless August — but they have lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning two in a row against a divisional rival. But New York’s bullpen has logged in 16 innings in their last three games with at least four innings pitched in each of those games — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in three straight games. The Yankees stay on the road where they have lost 13 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Additionally, New York has lost 6 of their last 8 games in Interleague play — and they have lost 5 in a row on the road against National League teams. They give the ball to Montas who has a 5-12 record with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home for the Yankees and previously with Oakland before being traded over at the trade deadline. Montas has a 3.11 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 batting average in 15 home starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in his 11 starts on the road. In his nine starts since the All-Star Break, he has a 5.28 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292. His teams have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Montas’ teams have also lost 10 of their last 12 games when he is pitching and priced in the +/- 125 range. Milwaukee has won 13 of their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Brewers were upset in their game on the road against the Cardinals with Corbin Burnes on the hill — and they have won 18 of their last 28 games after an upset loss to an NL Central rival. They have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than one run in a loss to a divisional rival. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after an off day. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams from the American League — and they have won 6 straight home games in Interleague play. They counter with Houser who has a 6-9 record with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games (18 starts). The right-hander has a 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a .223 opponent’s batting average in his nine games at home as opposed to his 6.14 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .285 on the road. In his two starts this month, Houser has a 2-0 record with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP. The Brewers have won 9 of their last 14 games with Houser on the hill priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150.
FINAL TAKE: These are all reasons to take Milwaukee as an underdog with the money-line (which is fine) — but with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line priced at -150 in many locations, that is my preferred option to take advantage of this situation. The Yankees have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their last 12 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Milwaukee Brewers (930) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (929) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-22 |
Orioles v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 |
|
6-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (927) and the Washington Nationals (928) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (74-67) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory against the Nationals last night. Washington (49-93) has lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a victory in their last game. Baltimore has not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and not only have they played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games but they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against opponents with a winning percentage no better than 40%. Wells gets the ball with a 7-6 record with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 21 starts. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 11 starts as compared to his 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 at home. He faces a Nationals team that has lost 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington lost their previous game on Sunday in Philadelphia by a 7-5 score — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in interleague play. They counter with Corbin who has a 6-18 record with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in 28 starts. No, endorsing Corbin with an Under play is not my “I’m being held hostage” code — the underlying metrics are better than expected and he has pitched much better as of late. Avoiding this left-hander on the road is the most important thing — those numbers explode to a 7.83 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .363 in 14 starts on the road. The deeper sabermetrics have been screaming for regression for most of the year as his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.32 and 4.17 moving forward. The Regression Gods may have already made their presence felt as Corbin has a 3.24 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in his last four starts. Washington has played 7 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore is scoring only 3.5 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .217 batting average, a .280 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .610 during that span. The Orioles have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (927) and the Washington Nationals (928) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-22 |
Padres v. Mariners OVER 7 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (983) and the Seattle Mariners (984) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Logan Gilbert. THE SITUATION: San Diego (77-64) has lost two games in a row after their 11-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday. Seattle (984) has won two games in a row after their 8-7 win against Atlanta on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an off day. San Diego goes back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs — and they have played 6 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Padres have played 5 straight Overs with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And in their last 67 games in Interleague play, the Over is 43-20-4. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total in September including seven of their eight games this month. Darvish gets the start tonight with his 13-7 record along with a 3.31 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 26 starts. But while the right-hander has a 2.45 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in 12 starts at home, those numbers rise to a 4.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 14 starts on the road. San Diego has played 4 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Darvish pitching as a money-line underdog priced from up to +150. Seattle has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Over is also 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after an off day. The Over is also 12-3-1 in the Mariners last 16 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gilbert who has a 12-5 record along with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 28 starts. The right-hander has a 2.95 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in 16 starts on the road — but in his 12 starts at home, those numbers rise to a 3.60 ERA and a .269 opponent’s batting average. Gilbert has not allowed an earned run in two straight starts — but Seattle has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Gilbert on the mound following two straight starts where he did not allow more than two earned runs.
FINAL TAKE: The last times these two teams played was on July 4th and 5th when Seattle upset San Diego at Petco Park in both games. The Padres have played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total when they are playing with double revenge from two upset losses at home. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (983) and the Seattle Mariners (984) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Logan Gilbert. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-10-22 |
Angels v. Astros -125 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (928) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels (927) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Shohei Ohtani. THE SITUATION: Houston (89-49) has won eight of their last ten games after a 4-3 victory against Texas on Friday. Los Angeles (60-78) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: We have endured two straight losses with Houston minus the -1.5 Run-Line — and they won their last two games by just one run. I take each day’s MLB card with a blank slate — and the evidence remains strong to take the Astros tonight given the pitching matchup (and the price is below my -150 threshold with Ohtani on the hill so we can bypass the Run-Line hurdle). Houston has won 8 off their last 11 games after a victory. And while the Astros have played four straight Unders, they have then won 23 of their last 27 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Astros have won 45 of their last 62 games at home — and they have won 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. They send out Urquidy who has a 13-5 record with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 25 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding since the All-Star Break with a 2.45 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .108 in eight starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .217 in 11 starts as compared to his 3.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 on the road. Houston has won 17 of their last 25 games with Urquidy pitching at home. Los Angeles has lost 15 of their last 21 games after a loss by just one run. The Angels have lost 37 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Ohtani who has an 11-8 record along with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 23 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he enjoys a 2.19 ERA and 0.99 WHIP — but those numbers do rise to a more manageable 3.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his 11 starts on the road. Los Angeles has lost 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog with Ohtani their starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has won 42 of their last 62 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Astros (928) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels (927) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Shohei Ohtani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-22 |
Angels v. Astros -1.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers, Jr. and Michael Lorenzen. THE SITUATION: Houston (88-49) has won seven of their last nine games after a 4-3 victory against Texas on Wednesday. Los Angeles (60-77) comes off a 5-4 loss to Detroit on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston has won 7 off their last 10 games after a victory. And while the Astros have played three straight Unders, they have then won 22 of their last 26 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Astros have won 44 of their last 61 games at home — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. They send out McCullers who has a 2-1 record with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in four starts. The right-hander began his season about a month ago after being out with a flexor tendon injury. He was 13-5 last year with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 28 starts. He has been more effective at home this year with 1.18 WHIP and .171 opponent’s batting average without yet giving out an earned run in his two starts as compared to his 4.22 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .295 opponent’s batting average in his two starts on the road. Los Angeles has lost 14 of their last 20 games after a loss by just one run — and they have also lost 17 of their last 21 games after an off day. The Angels have lost 36 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lorenzen who has a 6-6 record with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 13 starts this year. The right-hander returns to the mound after being on the 60-day injured list with a right shoulder strain. He has been solid at home where he has a 2.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a .199 opponent’s batting average in seven starts — but he has been saddled with a 7.52 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .297 in six starts on the road. The Angels have lost 4 straight games on the road with Lorenzen pitching as a money-line underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game — but when Houston wins, they are usually winning by more than one run lately (despite losing our play on the Astros on Wednesday). After a slow start in covering the -1.5 Run-Line early in the season, they have only been upset 5 times in their last 20 games when priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 price threshold — and they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of those 15 victories (even after Wednesday’s frustrating loss with the Run-Line). The Angels have not been as reliable as a +1.5 Run-Line underdog as the Rangers. Los Angeles has been a money-line underdog 29 times this season. They have pulled off an upset victory in 8 of those occasions — but they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their 21 losses. 10* MLB Run-Line Rout with the Houston Astros (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers, Jr. and Michael Lorenzen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-22 |
Twins v. Yankees -139 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-139 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (912) versus the Minnesota Twins (911) listing both starting pitchers Nestor Cortes, Jr. and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: New York (83-54) has won four games in a row after their doubleheader sweep on Wednesday where they followed up a 5-4 victory in extra innings in the afternoon with a 7-1 win in the nightcap. Minnesota (68-67) has lost three games in a row and six of their last seven.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 33 of their last 42 games at home after a victory — and they have won 37 of their last 46 games at home after winning three or more in a row. Additionally, the Yankees have won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 39 of their last 50 games at home after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. The Bronx Bombers have now won 45 of their last 62 games at home at Yankee Stadium — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games at home when priced up to -150 as the money-line favorite. They activated Cortes for this game who has been out with a left groin strain. The left-hander has a 9-4 record with a 2.68 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 23 starts. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .225 on the road. The Yankees have won 9 of their last 11 home games this season with Cortes on the mound. He faces a slumping Twins lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, 283 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .618 during that span. Minnesota has lost 20 of their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of .115 or lower — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have lost 9 of their last 11 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. Furthermore, they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. Minnesota has lost 13 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gray who has a 7-4 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he sports a 2.97 ERA and a .220 batting average in 12 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.27 ERA and a .225 opponents’ batting average in nine starts on the road. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.81 and 3.78 moving forward. The Twins have lost 8 of their last 11 games with Gray pitching in September. He faces a Yankees team that has won 4 in a row against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: New York owns Minnesota with 9 wins in their last 10 games against them including the last four — and the Twins have lost 7 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge with four or more straight losses to their opponent. 20* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the money-line on the New York Yankees (912) versus the Minnesota Twins (911) listing both starting pitchers Nestor Cortes, Jr. and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-22 |
Rangers v. Astros -1.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-130 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (975) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Cole Ragans. THE SITUATION: Houston (87-49) had won five of six games before their 4-3 loss to the Rangers last night. Texas (59-76) snapped a nine-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston has rebounded to win 40 of their last 57 games after a loss. The Astros were heavy money-line favorites priced in the -245 range — and they have won 11 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival when they were priced at -200 or higher. They have won 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by just one run. And while they have played two straight Unders in this series, they have then won 37 of their last 47 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. The Astros have won 43 of their last 60 games at home — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. They send out Javier who has an 8-9 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 25 appearances, including 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.52 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .153 in 13 games (10 starts) as opposed to his more modest 3.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 on the road. Houston has won 8 of their last 12 home games with Javier on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Rangers team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average, .279 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .298 during that span. Texas beat Framber Valdez last night — but they have lost 6 in a row against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers have lost 14 of their last 20 games after winning their last game. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. And in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record, Texas has lost 19 of these games. They counter with Ragans who has an 0-2 record with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in four starts since being called up from Triple-A to make his major league debut. The sabermetrics are not good from this small sample size with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 6.21 and 6.10 moving forward. He has been hit hard with a 6.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. The Astros have won 39 of their last 53 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Houston ranks fifth in MLB in weighted Runs Created when playing at home against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game — but when Houston wins, they are usually winning by more than one run lately. After a slow start in covering the -1.5 Run-Line early in the season, they have only been upset 5 times in their last 19 games when priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 price threshold — and they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of those 14 victories. Texas has been a pretty reliable underdog when priced at +145 or higher especially with the +1.5 Run-Line — but they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 6 of their 9 losses during their recent losing streak regardless of how they were priced as they play out the string this month in another lost season. 10* MLB Run-Line Rout with the Houston Astros (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (975) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Cole Ragans. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-22 |
Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7 |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Arizona (65-69) has won nine of their last 11 games after their 5-0 victory against the Padres last night. San Diego (74-62) has lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have not allowed more than one run in four of their last five games. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shutting out their opponent in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. In their last 13 games on the road, they have played nine of these games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 7 or less. Arizona has played 8 straight Unders against NL West opponents. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Kelly takes the mound with a 12-5 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 27 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.74 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 12 starts as compared to his 2.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a .240 batting average at home. In his last eight starts, Kelly has a 1.99 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195. The Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Kelly pitching as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175. He faces a slumping Padres lineup that is scoring only. 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .201 batting average, .291 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .618 during that span. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego lost their game on Sunday night to the Dodgers by a 9-4 score — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by four or more runs. They have played 5 games in a row Under the Total at home at Petco Park. They counter with Musgrove who has a 9-6 record with a 3.01 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he enjoys a 2.75 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.24 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a .233 opponent's batting average on the road. San Diego has played 5 of their 8 games Under the Total this season with Musgrove on the mound with the Total set at 7 or fewer.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in San Diego. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-05-22 |
Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-104 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (959) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Logan Webb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (92-41) has won two games in a row after their 9-4 victory against San Diego last night to conclude their weekend series with the Padres. San Francisco (64-68) has won three in a row after their 5-3 victory against Philadelphia yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 39 of their last 51 games after winning their previous game — and they have won 24 of their last 28 games after winning their last two games at home against an NL West rival. The Dodgers have won 66 of their last 85 games at home — and they have won 40 of their last 53 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Heaney who takes the hill after his start on Friday was scratched. The left-hander has a 2-1 record with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting not much regression with an ERA of 2.47 and 2.85 moving forward. He has been outstanding at home where he enjoys a 1.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .163 in five starts. His teams have won 10 of their last 12 games at home with him pitching as a money-line favorite priced from -175 to -250. San Francisco has lost 21 of their last 29 games on the road — and they have lost 22 of their last 27 road games as an underdog. The Giants have also lost 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Webb who has an 11-8 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 27 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.59 and 3.37 moving forward. The right-hander sports a 2.79 ERA in his 15 starts at home — but his ERA rises to 3.12 in his 12 starts on the road. San Francisco has lost 11 of their last 17 road games with Webb pitching as a money-line underdog. They have also lost 8 of their last 10 games with Webb pitching against an NL West rival. The Giants have lost 8 in a row against the Dodgers heading into this series — and they have lost 22 of their last 34 games when playing with double-revenge.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 97 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 30 of those games — and in their 67 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 58 times. Washington has been priced as a +145 money-line underdog only 13 times this season. They pulled off the upset 5 times — and in all 8 losses, they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 26 times. We last played the Dodgers minus the -1.5 Run-Line on July 27th when they beat Washington by a 7-1 score with Heaney their starting pitcher. Beginning with that triumph, Los Angeles has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 17 of their last 26 games when priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 threshold with just four wins by just one run. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (959) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Logan Webb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-04-22 |
Padres v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 |
|
4-9 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Caleb Ferguson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (74-60) had their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 12-1 loss to the Dodgers. Los Angeles (91-41) ended their three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres managed only two base hits last night — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games on the road Over the Total after playing a game where they did not get more than four hits. And while San Diego has won six of their last eight games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Furthermore, the Padres have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams from the NL West. They give the ball to Clevinger who has a 5-5 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 16 games (15 starts) this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.30 and 4.48 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he enjoys a 2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 — but in his 11 games (ten starts) on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.98 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228. The Padres have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total with Clevinger on the hill. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Clevinger looking to stop a losing streak. The Dodgers have played 4 straight Over the Total at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 9-3-1 in Los Angeles’ last 13 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. Additionally, the Dodgers have played 4 straight Overs at home — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Manager Dave Roberts will use Caleb Ferguson as his opener tonight before turning to Ryan Pepiot as the bulk pitcher. Ferguson has a 1-0 record with a 1.85 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings — but this will be his first start of the season. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.71 and 3.85 moving forward. Pepiot has a 2-0 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in seven starts. He has an ominous 5.00 SIERA and 5.42 xFIP. His ERA rises to 4.66 in his three starts at home. And in his three starts last month, the right-hander had a 5.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .351. The Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when playing at Dodger Stadium. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Caleb Ferguson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-22 |
Orioles v. Guardians UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (961) and the Cleveland Guardians (962) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (68-61) has won four of their last six games with their 4-0 victory on the road against the Guardians. Cleveland (68-60) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 4 straight Unders after winning their last game. Baltimore has now played seven straight Unders — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row. They have played 7 straight Unders when on the road — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Bradish gets the start with his 2-5 record along with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.00 and 3.95 moving forward. The Regression Gods may have already made their presence felt for Bradish as he enjoyed a 3.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in five starts in August. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 4.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in seven starts as compared to his 6.29 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .330 at home. He faces a slumping Guardians team that is scoring just 2.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .226 batting average, .266 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .594 during that span. Cleveland has played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 20-8-2 in their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Guardians have been shut out twice in their last three games. They have not allowed more than four runs in 12 straight contests — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. Cleveland has played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 17-4-1 in their last 22 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Bieber who has an 8-7 record with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander comes off a great August where had a 1.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a .215 opponent’s batting average in five starts. He has been a bit more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in nine starts as compared to his 1.12 WHIP on the road. The Guardians have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Bieber pitching at home priced as a money-line favorite priced from -150 to -200
|
08-31-22 |
Red Sox v. Twins -116 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-116 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (920) versus the Boston Red Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (67-61) has won five games in a row after their 10-5 victory against the Red Sox in the second game of this series yesterday. Boston (62-68) has lost three straight games and seven of their last nine contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 7 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 12 of their last 18 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also won 4 games in a row after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Twins have won 5 games in a row at home — and they have won 19 of their last 26 home games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Ryan who has a 10-6 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander got COVID in mid-May — and he struggled with his velocity when he turned to the mound three weeks later. But the 26-year-old rookie has regained his touch this month with a 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts. He comes off six shutout innings in his last start against San Francisco on Friday — and Minnesota has won 6 of their last 9 games when Ryan is following up a start in which he did not allow more than two earned runs. He thrives at home at Target Field where he has a 2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 12 starts as opposed to his 5.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 on the road. The Twins have won 8 of their last 11 games at home with Ryan on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Red Sox team that has lost 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston ranks 27th in MLB since July 1st in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created when on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have lost 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game — and they have also lost 24 of their last 36 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after allowing at least ten runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Boston has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Wacha who has a 9-1 record with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 16 starts on the road. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that the right-hander is excelling on borrowed time with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.26 and 4.09 moving forward. He has been most effective at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.79 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182 — but in his eight starts on the road, he has a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230.
FINAL TAKE: The Twins looked to be fading fast in the AL Central race at this time last week — but after a weekend sweep against San Francisco and now taking the first game of this series with Byron Buxton and Tyler Mahle set to return from the injured list soon — there is new enthusiasm from this team. Boston has gone just 19-35 since the beginning of July — and now President Sam Kennedy is denying speculation that he is prepared to clean house in the offseason. Minnesota is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (920) versus the Boston Red Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-22 |
Rockies v. Braves -1.5 |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-145 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Wright and Ryan Feltner. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (79-51) has lost three games in a row after their 3-2 loss to the Rockies last night. Colorado (56-74) has won two games in a row which ended a four-game losing streak.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has bounced back to win 42 of their last 58 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have still won 36 of their last 53 games at home — and they have won 20 of their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record. Wright gets the start tonight for the Braves with his 16-5 record along with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander is consistent — in his six starts since the All-Star Break, he has a 5-1 record with a 3.11 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229. He has been more effective at home with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in 14 starts as compared to his 1.18 WHIP and .a 236 opponent's batting average when on the road. Atlanta has won 9 straight home games with Wright on the mound priced as a -150 or higher money-line favorite. They have also won 13 of their last 15 games with Wright looking to end a two-game or longer losing streak. He should pitch well against this Rockies team that has lost 8 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Colorado is scoring just 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Rockies have lost 10 of their last 13 games after a win. They have also lost 41 of their last 57 games on the road. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, they have lost 6 of these contests. They counter with Feltner who has a 2-5 record with a 5.87 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts). In his five starts this month, he has a 6.29 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281. While the right-hander has a 5.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237, he has been saddled with a 6.19 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .308 in seven starts on the road. Colorado has lost 7 straight games on the road with Feltner their starting pitcher. He faces a Braves team that has won 20 of their last 28 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play -- but when the Braves win as a big favorite, they usually win by multiple runs. In Atlanta’s last 51 games when priced above my -150 threshold, they have been upset 12 times — but in their 39 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 31 of those circumstances. Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher 56 times this season — and while they have pulled the upset in 18 of those games, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 28 of their 38 losses in those situations.10* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Braves (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Wright and Ryan Feltner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-22 |
Red Sox v. Twins -123 |
|
5-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Boston Red Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Kutter Crawford. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (66-61) has won four games in a row after their 4-2 victory against the Red Sox in the opening game of their series yesterday. Boston (62-67) has lost two straight games and six of their last eight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games after winning their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Twins have won 4 games in a row at home — and they have won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Archer who has a 2-7 record this season with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander has been effective at home where he has a 3.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in 11 starts as opposed to his 4.87 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 on the road. He should pitch well against this Red Sox team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has lost 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game. They have also lost 11 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Crawford who has a 3-5 record with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 73 innings this season. The right-hander has pitched his best at home where he owns a 4.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 — but in his 33 innings on the road which includes five starts in his 11 appearances, he has been saddled with a 6.27 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304. In his five starts this month, Crawford has a 7.46 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .340. Boston has lost 7 of their last 10 games with Crawford on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Twins have won 4 games in a row against teams with a losing record. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Boston Red Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Kutter Crawford. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-29-22 |
Padres v. Giants -125 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-125 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (61-65) looks to end a four-game losing streak after an 8-3 loss at Minnesota yesterday. San Diego (70-59) has lost three of their last five games after their 15-7 loss at Kansas City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco is playing their way out of the NL wildcard race as they are now 6 1/2 games behind the Padres for the final spot in the playoffs. They have not scored more than three runs in five straight games — but they have won 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than three runs in four straight games. After playing their last eight games on the road, they return home where they have won 5 of their last 7 contests with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Rodon takes the mound tonight as he looks to build on his 12-6 record along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 25 starts. The sabermetrics are bullish on the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.90 and 2.99 moving forward. In his last five starts, he has a 1.44 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP. He has been outstanding at home this year at Oracle Park where he enjoys a 1.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in 11 starts. In his last five starts at home, he has a 1.22 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He should pitch another great game against this Padres team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. San Diego has also lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. They are averaging only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they struggle against left-handed starting pitchers. The Padres score only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .248 batting average, a .312 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .678. This team was slumping with their bats after scoring three runs or less in eight games over a nine-game span before scoring 24 runs over the weekend against the Royals. And while they are hitting .342 in those three games, they have then lost 10 of their last 13 games after hitting .333 or better during their last three games. They counter with Clevinger who has a 4-5 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander’s velocity is down this season — and his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.28 and 4.47 moving forward. The Regression Gods have already made their presence felt with Clevinger as he has a 4.05 ERA in his last nine starts since the beginning of July. He has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in six starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.02 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 on the road. The Padres have lost 8 of their last 12 games with Clevinger on the mound as an underdog priced put to +150.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has won 5 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with money-line on the San Francisco Giants (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-22 |
Braves v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (961) and the St. Louis Cardinals (962) listing both starting pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (79-49) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with a 6-5 loss on the road against the Cardinals yesterday. St. Louis (73-54) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-3-1 in the Braves' last 11 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a victory by two runs or less. They have also played 5 straight Overs after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is 12-3-2 in their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Odorizzi gets the start for Atlanta with a 5-5 record along with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 16 starts between the Braves and Houston this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.61 moving forward. He faces a Cardinals team that is hitting .277 in their last seven games with a .338 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .812 during that span. St. Louis has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, they have played 5 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Wainwright who has a 9-9 record along with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 25 starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.09 and 3.91 moving forward. St. Louis has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total with Wainwright on the mound. Atlanta is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .271 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .766. The Over is 9-4-4 in the Braves last 17 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 8-2-4 in their last 14 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by one run on the road. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (961) and the St. Louis Cardinals (962) listing both starting pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-22 |
Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Phillies (956) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (955) listing both starting pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Roansy Contreras. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (72-55) has won six straight games after their 6-0 shutout win against the Pirates yesterday. Pittsburgh (47-79) has lost seven straight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Philadelphia got Bryce Harper back on Friday after he was out for two months from surgery on his left thumb. The Phillies have won five of their last six games by more than one run. They have also won 35 of their last 51 games after winning their last game. Philly has won 6 straight games at home — and they have won 9 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Furthermore, the Phillies have won 11 of their last 12 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. They give the ball to Syndergaard who has an 8-8 record this year with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 19 starts. After being acquired from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline, the right-hander allowed four runs in five innings against Washington in the first start with his new team. Pitching coach Caleb Cotham then advised Syndergaard to start throwing his slider harder — from 83 MPH to 88 MPH. The results have been positive as Syndergaard has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last three starts this month. He faces a slumping Pirates team that is scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .186 batting average, .242 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .560 during that span. Pittsburgh has lost six of their last seven games by at least three runs. The Pirates have lost 36 of their last 51 games after a loss. Additionally, they have lost 22 of their last 30 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 5 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 42 road games after losing six or seven of their last eight games they have lost 34 of those contests. They counter with Contreras who has a 3-4 record this year with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 14 games. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.49 and 4.55 moving forward. The rookie right-hander has been solid at home where he owns a 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 — but in his seven games (five starts) on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.94 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263. The Pirates have lost 7 of their 8 games with Contreras on the mound as a money-line underdog. He faces a Phillies lineup that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .291 batting average, .349 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .826 during that span. Philadelphia has won 37 of their last 55 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Phillies win, it is usually by more than one run. Philadelphia has played 38 games this season priced above my -150 price threshold — and while they have been upset eight times, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 25 of their 30 victories under these circumstances. Pittsburgh has lost 12 games in a row when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — and while they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their 12 losses. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Philadelphia Phillies (956) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (955) listing both starting pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Roansy Contreras. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-22 |
Rockies v. Mets -1.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Loss |
-145 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Mets (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Chad Kuhl. THE SITUATION: New York (80-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 3-1 victory against the Rockies last night. Colorado (54-72) has lost two in a row — and eight of their last 11 — after their loss to Jacob DeGrom last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 23 of their last 31 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they have only scored five runs in their last two games, they have then won 14 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Mets have won 37 of their last 51 home games when priced at -110 or higher. They have also won 28 of their last 36 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They give the ball to Bassitt who has an 11-7 record with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has thrived at home where he enjoys a 2.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .218 in 12 starts as opposed to his 4.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 on the road. New York has won 18 of their last 26 home games when Bassitt is on the bump when favored at -110 or higher. They have also won 11 in a row when Bassitt is favored at -200 or higher. He faces a Rockies team that scores only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 batting average, a .287 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .634. Colorado has lost 65 of their last 89 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 20 of their last 25 road games as an underdog priced at +250 or higher. They counter with Kuhl who has a 6-7 record with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander returns to the mound after being on the injured list with a right flexor strain. He was struggling before hitting the DL while also working on some adjustments to his delivery. In his last six starts since the start of July, Kohl has been saddled with a 10.17 ERA and a 2.18 WHIP. And while he has a 4.17 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in his nine starts at home, he has been roughed up with a 6.08 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and a .288 opponent’s batting average in his 11 starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 26 of their last 34 road games with Kuhl pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Mets win, it is usually by more than one run. New York has played 38 games this season priced above my -150 price threshold — and while they have been upset 10 times, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 21 of their 28 victories under these circumstances. Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher 52 times this season — and while they have pulled the upset in 16 of those games, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 27 of their 36 losses in those situations. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the New York Mets (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Chad Kuhl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-22 |
Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
6-12 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (957) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Adrian Houser. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (85-37) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 10-1 victory against the Brewers in the second game of this series. Milwaukee (65-57) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Dodgers should continue to build off the momentum of their big victory against the Brewers’ ace starting pitcher Corbin Burnes last night as they have won 47 of their last 64 games after a victory — and they have won 41 of their last 54 games after holding their last opponent to two runs or less. Los Angeles has now won 63 of their last 81 games at home — and they have won 42 of their last 55 home games against teams with a winning record. Heaney gets the ball to redeem himself from his worst start of the season last Thursday in Milwaukee against these Brewers when he gave up three home runs and five total runs in just 4 2/3 innings. The left-hander did strike out ten Milwaukee batters so he just needs to correct a few pitches tonight in this rematch. For the season, Heaney has a 1-1 record with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in eight starts. The sabermetrics call for some regression — but with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.70 and 2.99 moving forward, his prospects moving forward should be quite good. He returns home to Dodger Stadium where he has been almost unhittable with a 0.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in four starts as opposed to his 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .234 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. His teams have won 9 of their last 11 home games when he is the starting pitcher priced as a money-line favorite in the -175 to -250 range. And while Heaney is not pitching deep into games, he will be supported by a strong bullpen that has a 2.11 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in the last seven games — and they recently got back fireballer Brusdar Graterol back from the injured list. Heaney should thrive against a Brewers team that struggles against left-handed pitching. Milwaukee is averaging just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .215 batting average, .287 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .644. Since July 1st, the Brewers rank 26th in weighted on-base percentage on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank 28th since July 1st in weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Milwaukee has lost 6 of their last 8 games after losing their last game by six or more runs — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They have also lost 11 of their last 17 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed their opponent to score 10 or more runs. The Brewers have lost 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Houser who comes off the injured list to pitch for the first time since June with a right flexor strain. The right-hander has a 4-8 record with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 15 starts this season — and his ERA could be much worse with nine of the runs he allowed being unearned. He has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.63 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .247 — but in his eight starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 5.89 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .295. Milwaukee has lost 8 of their last 9 games with Hauser pitching with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 39 of their last 52 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 61 of their last 83 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles is hitting .281 in their last seven games with an on-base percentage of .347 during that span. The Dodgers lead MLB since July 1st in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 91 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 29 of those games — and in their 62 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 54 times. Milwaukee has been priced as a +145 or higher money-line underdog just 6 times this year. They have pulled off the upset just once — and in their 5 losses, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line under those circumstances 4 times. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (957) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Adrian Houser. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-22 |
Marlins v. A's UNDER 7 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 3:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. THE SITUATION: Miami (54-69) has won two games in a row after their 5-3 victory against the A’s in the second game of their series. Oakland (45-79) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Before Tuesday night’s game, the Marlins had not scored more than four runs in 23 straight games — and they did not score more than three runs in 21 of those games. The Under is 21-8-2 in Miami’s last 31 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Marlins have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Luzardo who has a 3-5 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.32 and 3.15 moving forward. He comes off an impressive start in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday when he allowed only one run in 6 1/3 innings against the commanding MLB leader in runs scored. Miami has played 4 straight Unders this season when Luzardo is on the mound following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. In his last four starts this month since coming back from a forearm injury that kept him on the shelf since May, Luzardo has a 2.76 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .188. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .128 in six starts as opposed to his 4.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .253 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. Luzardo also sports a 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .154 in four starts. He faces an A’s team that has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. At home, the A’s are scoring only 2.8 Runs-Per-Game while posting a .205 batting average, .268 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .585. The Under is 28-13-1 in their last 42 games at home. They counter with Irvin who has a 6-11 record this season with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 22 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in 12 starts as compared to his 4.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .270 on the road. Oakland has played 13 of their last 20 home games Under the Total with Irvin pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He pitches against a listless Marlins lineup that is hitting just .188 in their last seven games with a .261 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .607 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: Since June 1st, Miami ranks 28th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage on the road against left-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 29th in MLB since June 1st in weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. Oakland ranks 29th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st — and they rank 27th in weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-22 |
Braves -1.5 v. Pirates |
|
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and J.T. Brubaker. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (76-48) has won four of their last five games — and 12 of their last 14 contests — after their 2-1 victory against the Pirates last night. Pittsburgh (47-75) has lost three in a row and nine of their last 11 contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has won 36 of their last 52 games after winning their previous game — and they have won 41 of their last 58 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have won 7 straight games on the road — and they have won 16 of their last 21 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Manager Brian Snitker gives the ball to Fried who has an 11-4 record along with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 23 starts. The left-hander was on the injured list with a concussion — but he returned to action on Thursday and held the New York Mets to just two runs in seven innings of work. Fried has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in nine starts as opposed to his more modest 1.15 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in his 14 starts at home. Atlanta has won 18 of their last 22 road games with Fried on the hill priced as a -125 money-line favorite. He should thrive tonight against this Pirates team that has lost 5 straight home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 40 of their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Pittsburgh ranks 26th in MLB since June 1st in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh has lost 19 of their last 26 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 32 of their last 42 games after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Pirates have lost 4 straight games after not scoring our than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games at home. They counter with Brubaker who has a 3-10 record along with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 23 starts. The right-hander comes off one of his best efforts of the season where he did not allow an earned run in seven innings of work at home against Boston on Thursday. But the Pirates have lost 11 of their last 13 games with Brubaker on the bump following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. Brubaker has a 3.88 ERA with a .256 opponent’s batting average in 14 starts on the road — but in his nine starts at home, he has a 4.66 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .272. Pittsburgh has lost 29 of their last 38 games with Brubaker their starting pitcher as a money-line underdog. He faces a tough challenge against this Braves team that ranks 6th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since June 1st — and they rank 7th in weighted- Runs Created since June 1st when playing on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has won 35 of their last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 52 of their last 73 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play -- but when the Braves win as a big favorite, they usually win by multiple runs. In Atlanta’s last 47 games when priced above my -150 threshold, they have been upset 11 times — but in their 36 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 28 of those circumstances. Pittsburgh has been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher 71 times this year. While they have pulled off the upset in 24 of those games, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 37 of their 47 losses in those situations. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and J.T. Brubaker. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-21-22 |
Brewers v. Cubs +141 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Cubs (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff. THE SITUATION: Chicago (52-67) has won five straight games after taking the second game of this NL Central series by a 6-5 score yesterday. Milwaukee (63-56) has lost five of their last seven games (PLEASE NOTE: I accidentally entered this Report for the Cubs as a money-line play (which is fine), but I do prefer and endorse the Cubs plus the +1.5 Run-Line since that price is below my -150 price threshold -- FYI).
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cubs are playing feisty baseball this month despite being out of the playoff picture. They have won 14 of their last 17 games after a victory by one run — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than five runs in their last contest. The first two games in this series have finished Over the Total — and Chicago has won 15 of their last 21 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They have also won 24 of their last 35 games at home after winning four or five of their last six games. The Cubbies have won 9 of their last 11 games at home at Wrigley Field — and they have beaten 7 of their last 10 opponents with winning records. Steele gets the ball with a 4-7 record along with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts. He is incorporating a change up into his arsenal — and in his late eight starts, he sports a 1.67 ERA with 50 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 43 innings. He does his best work at home where he enjoys a 3.03 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.04 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260. He faces a slumping Brewers lineup that is scoring just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .165 batting average, .252 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .577 during that span. Milwaukee has lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring five runs in their last contest — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Brewers have now lost four games in a row to the Cubs with the last three losses by just one run — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when avenging three or more straight losses to their opponent by two runs or less. Milwaukee has lost 8 of their last 9 games on the road. Furthermore, the Brewers have lost 6 straight games on the road against teams with a losing record. They counter with Woodruff who has a 9-3 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.51 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in eight starts — but in his ten starts on the road, he has a 4.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266. Milwaukee has lost 10 of their last 16 road games with Woodruff on the hill with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. The Cubs are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 7 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends above do not even take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking for this play. Six of the last 12 losses for the Cubs have been by just one run. Three of the Brewers last 4 victories — along with 7 of their last 14 wins — have been by just one run. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Cubs (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-20-22 |
Nationals v. Padres -1.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-130 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Josiah Gray. THE SITUATION: San Diego (66-56) has lost two in a row — and four of their last five games — after their 6-3 loss to the Nationals on Friday. Washington (41-80) has won the first two games of this series despite being huge +275 and +265 money-line underdogs in both games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego has won 7 of their last 10 games when avenging an upset loss at home when they were priced at -200 or higher. They have also won 8 of their last 11 games when playing with double revenge from two straight upset losses at home to their opponent. The Padres have still won 7 of their last 10 games at home. They give the ball to Musgrove who has an 8-6 record along with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has taken a step back from June 16th when he has 8-0 with a 1.59 ERA. Take away two bad starts against Colorado and he is still putting up outstanding numbers. He has been more effective at home at Petco Park where he enjoys a 2.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in ten starts as compared to his 3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227. He should pitch well against this Nationals team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. with a .248 batting average, .281 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .653 during that span. Washington has lost 38 of their last 54 games after a win — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in each of their last three games, they have then lost 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. The Nationals have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 19 of their last 28 road games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. They counter with Gray who has a 7-8 record with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander has slumped in his last eight starts as he has been saddled with a 6.49 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He has done his best pitching during the day where he sports a 2.66 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in nine starts — but he has a 6.38 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 13 starts at night. He faces a Padres team that has won 7 of their last 9 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. When San Diego does not beat their opponents as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold, they usually win by more than one run. In their 45 games this season priced above -150, the Padres have been upset 14 times — but in their 31 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 25 times. Washington has been priced as a +145 or higher money-line underdog 72 times this season. And while the Nationals have pulled off 22 times, under those circumstances, they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 43 of their 50 losses. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego Padres (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Josiah Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-22 |
Marlins v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Tyler Anderson. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-66) has lost five of their last seven games after their 10-3 loss to San Diego on Wednesday. Los Angeles (81-36) has lost two of their last three games after a 5-3 loss at Milwaukee on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have seen the Under go 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Miami goes back on the road where they have played 6 straight Unders — and the Under is 18-6-2 in their last 26 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Under is also 7-1-2 in the Marlins’ last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Luzardo who has a 3-5 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.34 and 3.18 moving forward. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .115 in five starts as opposed to his 4.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a .253 opponent’s batting average at home. Miami has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when Luzardo is on the mound following up a loss. He faces a slumping Dodgers lineup that is hitting only .216 in their last seven games with a .305 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .741 during that span. Los Angeles has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Under is also 8-2-2 in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Anderson who has a 13-2 record with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 22 games (20 starts). The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.30 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in ten games (nine starts) as compared to his more modest 3.29 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 on the road. The Dodgers have played 6 of their 9 home games this season Under the Total with Anderson their starting pitcher. Since the All-Star Break, Anderson has a 2.32 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in five starts.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has been an Under Machine this month with 12 Unders in their 13 games. They are scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .219 batting average, .294 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .665 during that span. While we should not simply be Under Zombies for the Marlins right now (and there needs to be sufficient Under evidence for their opponent), the Under is 14-3-1 in Miami’s last 18 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Since June 1st, the Marlins are second-to-last in MLB on the road against left-handed starting pitchers in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created. 10* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Tyler Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-22 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants -140 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-140 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (956) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (955) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (59-58) had been on a five-game winning streak before losing the third-game of this series last night by a 3-2 score despite being a -220 money-line favorite. Arizona (54-63) had lost two games in a row before their victory yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has rebounded to win 4 of their last 5 games after getting upset by a divisional rival when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. The Giants’ bullpen wasted a strong effort from Carlos Rodon yesterday who left the game after six innings with a 2-1 lead — but San Francisco has won 27 of their last 39 games after blowing a save in their last game. The Giants have won 4 straight games at home when bouncing-back from a loss against a team that is not the Los Angeles Dodgers. That is the rub for San Fran — they tend to struggle against good teams but they are flat-track bullies. They have won a decisive 60 of their last 89 games at home against teams with a losing record — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games this season against teams with a losing record. San Francisco has also won 5 of their last 6 games at home. And while they have only allowed five combined runs in their last three games which have all finished Under the Total, they have then won 22 of their last 30 games after playing an Under in their last game. Webb gets the ball with an 11-5 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 24 starts. In his 14 starts since the beginning of June, the right-hander has a 2.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP — and he has allowed only two earned runs in his 15 innings in his last two starts. When pitching in his 13 starts at home, he has a 2.71 ERA — and the Giants have won 23 of their last 27 games at home with Webb on the mound. He should thrive against this Diamondbacks team that scores only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .222 batting average, .291 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .684. Arizona has lost 63 of their last 78 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 24 of their 36 road games with the Total in that 7-8.5 range this season. The Diamondbacks have lost 25 of their last 36 games after coming off an upset victory in their previous game. And while Arizona has only scored five combined runs in their last three games, they have then lost 16 of their last 25 games after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games. They counter with Gallen who comes off seven shutout innings in Colorado where he allowed only two hits. For the season, the right-hander has an 8-2 record with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 22 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.63 and 3.66 moving forward. In his previous five starts on the road before the strong outing against the Rockies, Gallen has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 26 innings. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of their last 17 road games with Gallen the starting pitcher with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. San Francisco has a solid .259 batting average in their last seven games with a .340 on-base percentage and a nice .809 OPS during that span. They have won 5 of their last 6 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have won 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss at home when they were priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (956) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (955) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-22 |
Tigers v. Guardians -1.5 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Guardians (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (923) listing both starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Daniel Norris. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (62-55) has lost two games in a row after their 4-3 loss to the Tigers yesterday. Detroit (45-74) has won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GUARDIANS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Cleveland has rebounded to win 6 of their last 8 games after losing their previous game — and they have won 15 of their last 19 games after losing by one run to a divisional rival. The Guardians have still won 21 of their last 30 games at home when priced as a -110 or higher money-line favorite — and they have won 27 of their last 33 home games when priced as the money-line favorite from -150 to -200. Additionally, Cleveland has won 4 of their last 5 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games against teams from the AL Central. They give the ball to Quantrill who has a 9-5 record along with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run in two straight starts against two teams with good offenses in Houston and Toronto — he has allowed only four hits and issued one walk in those 13 innings. Quantrill has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in 12 starts as compared to his 4.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in ten starts on the road. The Guardians have won 15 of their last 18 home games with Quantrill on the hill when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He should thrive against this dismal Detroit lineup that is last in MLB since June 1st in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing on the road against a right-handed starting pitcher. The Tigers had been on an eight-game losing streak before winning their last two games. They have still lost 9 of their last 11 games after winning their previous game by just one run. Detroit won Game Two of this series in the nightcap of the doubleheader on Monday by a 7-5 score — but they have won 5 of their last 6 games after winning two straight games by two runs or less. The Tigers have lost 41 of their last 59 games on the road. They are scoring just 2.8 Runs-Per-Game away from Comerica Park with a .214 batting average, .263 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .577 in those games. They counter with Norris who they signed to a minor league contract in late July after he was released by the Chicago Cubs. The left-hander did pitch 4 2/3 scoreless innings for Detroit against the Chicago White Sox on Friday — but his teams have lost 13 of their last 15 games when deploying Norris as their starting pitcher after a game where he did not allow more than one earned run. Norris pitched for the Tigers and Milwaukee Brewers last year but was saddled with a 2-3 record along with a 6.16 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in those 57 innings. In his 25 2/3 innings on the road, he saw those numbers rise to a 6.66 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .287. He faces a Guardians team that has won 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when Cleveland wins as a big favorite, it is usually by more than one run. The Guardians have been priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 threshold 22 times this season. While they have been upset in six of those games, they have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 11 of their 16 victories. Detroit has been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher in 56 games this year. They have pulled the upset 14 times — but in their 42 losses, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 33 times. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Guardians (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (923) listing both starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Daniel Norris. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-16-22 |
Astros v. White Sox UNDER 7 |
|
3-4 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (975) and the Chicago White Sox (976) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease. THE SITUATION: Houston (75-42) had their four-game winning streak snapped last night in a 4-2 upset loss on the road to the White Sox in the first game of this series. Chicago (60-56) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros has seen the Under go 46-22-6 in their last 74 games after a loss — and the Under is also 35-11-2 in their last 48 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They are only scoring 4.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 batting average, .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .709. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 20 road games Under the Total when favored on the road as a -125 to -175 money-line favorite. Houston has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Verlander gets the ball tonight with his 15-3 record along with a 1.85 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he enjoys a 1.58 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .147 in 11 starts as compared to his 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a .235 opponent’s batting average at home. The Astros have played 10 of their last 11 games on the road with Verlander on the mound — and they have played 7 straight Unders this season with Verlander pitching as a money-line favorite priced from -125 to -175. He faces a White Sox team that is scoring only 3.5 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. Chicago ranks 26th this season in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 23rd in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 9-2-1 in the White Sox’s last 12 games after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Chicago has not allowed more than four runs in four straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in four straight games. The Under is 6-2-1 in the White Sox’s last 9 games at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They counter with Cease who has a 12-5 record with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has not allowed more than one earned run in 14 straight starts — and he owns a 0.66 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP during that span. He has been a bit more effective at home where he sports a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in 12 starts as compared to a 1.24 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average in 11 starts on the road. He faces an Astros team that has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston ranks 17th in MLB since June 1st in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (975) and the Chicago White Sox (976) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-22 |
Yankees -120 v. Red Sox |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (977) versus the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: New York (72-42) looks to win this three-game series tonight after taking Game Two by a 3-2 score yesterday. Boston (56-59) has lost five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has been lethargic in the dog days of summer having lost eight of their last nine games before taking yesterday’s game. Double-digit leads over their other AL East rivals may have lulled the Bronx Bombers into a sense of complacency. But the Yankees have won 44 of their last 64 games after winning their last game. They have won 41 of their last 63 games on the road — and they have won 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a losing record. The opportunity to beat Boston on national television should have this team focused tonight — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games against AL East rivals. Taillon gets the ball with his 11-2 record along with a 3.95 era and a 1.14 whip in 22 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.86 moving forward. The right-hander last pitched on Tuesday — and New York has won 22 of their last 29 road games when Taillon is pitching on five or six days of rest. He should have success against this Red Sox team that has lost 16 of their last 23 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has been an even worse tailspin than the Yankees — and they are on the outside-looking-in regarding the playoff picture. The Red Sox have lost 24 of their last 35 games since July 4th — and that was one of the reasons why management traded away their catcher Christian Vazquez at the trade deadline. Boston has lost 16 of their last 23 games after losing their last game. The BoSox are struggling to score runs as they have not scored more than four runs in four straight contests. The Red Sox have lost 10 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 games at home after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, Boston has lost 8 of their last 9 home games after not scoring more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They have lost 14 of their last 21 games at home when listed as a money-line underdog. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games against AL East rivals. They counter with Wacha who comes off the disabled list to pitch after being out since July 31st with shoulder inflammation. The right-hander has a 6-1 record with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics have been screaming for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.56 and 4.30 moving forward. His teams have lost 5 of their last 8 games in August when he is on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have won 13 of their last 19 games against the Red Sox. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Boston ESPN Special with the money-line on the New York Yankees (977) versus the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-22 |
Brewers v. Cardinals -137 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (960) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (959) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Aaron Ashby. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (62-51) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-2 loss at home to the Brewers yesterday. Milwaukee (61-51) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has still won nine of their last twelve games even after their loss yesterday — and they have won 4 straight games after a loss. The Cardinals have also won 9 of their last 13 games after losing by just one run — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. St. Louis has still won 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have beaten 5 of their last 6 opponents with winning records. Mikolas gets the ball with his 8-9 record along with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 23 stars. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.48 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and .203 batting average in 11 starts as opposed to his 4.59 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .273 on the road. The Cardinals have won 7 of their last 8 home games with Mikolas on the mound when favored at -110 or higher. The Brewers are scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .206 batting average, .290 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .652 during that span. Milwaukee has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have still lost seven of their last ten games — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Brewers have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Ashby who has a 2-10 record with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings this in 21 games which includes 15 starts. The left-hander has a 3.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .189 in 30 innings at home — but on the road, he has been saddled with a 4.72 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 batting average, .336 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .823 during that span. The Cardinals have won 27 of their last 37 games against left-handed starting pitchers — including four straight wins at home against left-handed starters. They have also won 21 of their last 31 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 20* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (960) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (959) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Aaron Ashby. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-22 |
A's v. Astros -1.5 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (971) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Cole Irvin. THE SITUATION: Houston (74-41) has won three in a row after their 8-0 shutout victory against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (41-73) has lost seven games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston has won seven of their last ten games — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than one run in a victory against a divisional rival. They have also won 37 of their last 51 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. The Astros have now won 37 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won 12 of their last 17 games at home with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. Javier gets the ball with his 6-8 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 21 games with 17 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.60 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in 11 games (nine starts) as opposed to his 3.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 on the road. The Astros have won 13 of their last 18 home games with Javier pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should thrive against this A’s team that is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .214 batting average, .287 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .582 during that span. Oakland has lost 5 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 9 of their last 11 games after losing by six or more runs to a divisional rival — and they have lost 19 of their last 25 games after not scoring more than one run in a loss to an AL West foe. They have also lost 9 of their last 12 games after dropping the first two games in a series. The A’s have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They counter with Irvin who has a 6-9 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 20 starts. It was a bit of a surprise that Oakland did not trade him at the deadline — but perhaps teams were scared off by the deeper metrics given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 4.32 and 4.21 moving forward. The left-hander has been most effective at home where he sports a 1.66 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in eleven starts — but he has been saddled with a 4.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his nine starts on the road. The A’s have lost 7 of their 9 games on the road this season with Irvin on the hill. He faces an Astros team that has won 36 of their last 52 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game — but when Houston wins, they are usually winning by more than one run lately. After a slow start in covering the -1.5 Run-Line early in the season, they have only been upset twice in their last nine games when priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 price threshold — and they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in all 7 of their victories. Oakland has pulled off upsets in 14 of their last 38 games when priced as a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher — but they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 19 of their 24 losses. 10* MLB Run-Line Rout with the Houston Astros (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (971) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Cole Irvin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-22 |
Padres v. Nationals OVER 8.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (64-51) has won three straight games after their 10-5 victory against the Nationals in the opening game of this series. Washington (37-77) has lost two in a row and eight of their last nine contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have scored a combined 23 runs in their last two games as their lineup becomes accustomed to the additions of Juan Soto and Josh Bell. They have played 4 straight Overs after winning their last game. The Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 5-1-2 in their last 8 games on the road. Darvish gets the ball for San Diego with his 10-5 record along with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 21 starts. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.47 and 3.62 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.17 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .172 in his ten stars at home, those numbers rise to a 4.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in his 11 starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Darvish had a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 home starts but a 5.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. The Padres have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Darvish on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. He faces a Nationals’ team that is hitting the ball surprisingly well even after trading away Soto and Bell to them. Since August 3rd after that trade was completed, Washington ranks 10th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created — and the Over is 6-1-2 in those eight games. The Nationals have played The Over is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games after a loss - and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher. They counter with Sanchez who has an 0-5 record this season with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander probably should be out of the league at this point — but the Nationals want him to eat innings the rest of the way while they conduct their soft tank to better position themselves for draft position. When he last pitched two years ago, he was saddled with a 6.62 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in 11 starts which helps explain why he did not pitch in the majors last season. The sabermetrics project an ERA of 5.13 and 5.37 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers. He has already allowed eight home runs in his 25 innings of work this year — and he surrendered 11 home runs in 53 innings back in 2020. The Nationals have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in August with Sanchez on the mound — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when he is pitching as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-22 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: New York (71-41) has lost two straight games — and seven of their last eight — after their 4-3 loss in Seattle to the Mariners on Wednesday. Boston (55-58) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 4-3 win against Baltimore last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The slumping Yankees had scored nine runs in two straight games before getting shutout by a 1-0 score to the Mariners on Tuesday and then losing by one-run again on Wednesday. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by one run. They continue their road trip where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when the Total is in the 9-10.5 range — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 16 games against divisional rivals, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. Manager Aaron Boone gives the ball to German who has a 1-2 record with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in four starts this season. After missing all of 2020 because of domestic abuse charges, he returned last season to generate a 4-5 record with a 4.58 ERA in 98 1/3 innings. His season was delayed this year due to a shoulder injury. Giving up gopher balls has always been an issue for the right-hander — and he has already served up four home runs in his 17 innings this year. German looked good in his rehab starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.68 ERA in his three starts on the road since his return to the mound. He has only pitched 106 innings from 2019 which was his best full season despite a 4.03 ERA. He has a career 4.56 ERA while allowing 1.68 home runs per nine innings. In his 25 career innings at Fenway Park, he has a 4.68 ERA. The Yankees have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total with German their starting pitcher at night. He faces a Red Sox team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total playing at home in Fenway Park. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against AL East rivals. They counter with Eovaldi who has a 5-3 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The right-hander missed about five weeks prior to the All-Star Break earlier this summer with back inflammation — and since his return, his velocity is down. While he did pitch surprisingly well two starts ago in Houston against the Astros recently, he still has a 7.29 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in his four starts the second half of the season. He has pitched better on the road where he owns a 2.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts — but in his seven starts at home, he has been saddled with a 6.81 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and an opponents batting average .320 in seven starts at home. The Red Sox have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Eovaldi pitching with the Total in the 9-10.5 range. He faces a Yankees’ lineup that ranks 3rd and 2nd on the road against right-handed starting pitchers in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Bronx Bombers have scored 14 runs in each of their last two games against Boston. These two teams have played 7 straight Overs — and they have played 5 straight Overs when playing in Fenway Park. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-22 |
White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (913) and the Kansas City Royals (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Chicago (56-55) has lost three of their last five games after their 8-3 loss on the road against the Royals last night. Kansas City (46-66) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have not scored more than three runs in six of their last seven contests. They are scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .211 batting average, .261 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .586 during that span. Chicago has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Cease gets the ball for manager Tony LaRussa. The right-hander has a 12-4 record this season with a 1.98 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. In his last 13 starts since the end of May, Cease has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his starts. He has been particularly tough on the road where he owns a 1.33 ERA in ten starts as opposed to his 2.50 ERA in 12 starts at home. The White Sox have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road when priced as a -125 or higher money-line favorite. And in his 14 starts during the day, Cease has a 1.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .184. He should continue to have success against this Royals’ team that scores only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .248 batting average, .304 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .687 against righties. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after scoring eight or more runs in their last contest. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in the first three games of this series, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three runs in three straight games. The Royals have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Greinke who has a 3-7 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 18 starts. The veteran right-hander has seen an uptick in his velocity returning from the injured list from a flexor strain. In his last five starts, he has a 3.80 ERA. Greinke has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 as compared to his 7.16 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .321 on the road. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total with Greinke on the starting pitcher. He faces a White Sox team that has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 20-6-1 in their last 27 meetings — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing in Kansas City. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (913) and the Kansas City Royals (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-22 |
White Sox -128 v. Royals |
Top |
3-8 |
Loss |
-128 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Kris Bubic. THE SITUATION: Chicago (56-54) has won two of their last three games after their 3-2 victory against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (45-66) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: While Chicago has been a disappointment so far this season, they are still very much alive in the American League playoff race. They have been riddled with injuries all season — but manager Tony LaRussa has finally been able to pencil in his expected opening day lineup this month. Not surprisingly, the White Sox are playing better baseball — they have won seven of their last eleven games and have not lost a series since their July 4th series with Minnesota. Chicago’s struggles have mostly been at home where they have a 25-29 record this season. But the White Sox have won 13 of their last 21 games on the road with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have won 13 of their last 17 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Chicago has also won 5 of their last 7 games against AL Central rivals. Cueto gets the start with his 4-5 record along with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 14 starts (15 appearances). The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in seven starts as compared to his 3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 at home. His teams have won 7 of their last 10 road games when he is on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He should have success against this Royals team that scores only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers. Since the beginning of June when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers, Kansas City ranks 20th in weighted on-base percentage and 22nd in weighted Runs Created. The Royals have lost 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. After trading away Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, and Carlos Santana last month, this team has fully embraced rebuilding by playing their prospects for the rest of the season. Kansas City has lost 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 17 of their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Bubic who has a 2-6 record along with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 17 games (18 appearances). The left-hander struggles with control — he is averaging 5.03 walks per nine innings when pitching at home. He has been less effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.86 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in ten starts as opposed to his 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. Bubic has been pitching better as of late by not allowing more than three earned runs in seven starts — but the Royals have lost 5 of those 7 games still.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox rake left-handed pitching — since June 1st when playing on the road against left-handed pitchers, Chicago ranks 3rd in weighted on-base percentage and 2nd in weighted Runs Created. They have won 14 of their last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Kris Bubic. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-09-22 |
Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Phillies (902) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (901) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Braxton Garrett. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (60-48) has won five straight games — and ten of their last eleven — after their 13-1 victory against Washington on Sunday. Miami (49-59) comes off a 3-0 victory in Chicago against the Cubs on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Philadelphia has won 27 of their last 38 games after winning their last game. They have won 20 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Phillies have won 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Philadelphia has won 5 straight games at home — and they have won 8 in a row against teams with a losing record. Wheeler gets the ball for them tonight with his 10-5 record along with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 20 starts. Since getting through the first month of the season when he was still working on getting his velocity up after the shortened spring training, he has a 9-2 record with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in his last 16 starts since the start of May. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.58 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in ten starts as opposed to his 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and .252 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Phillies have won 7 of their last 8 home games with Wheeler pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -200 or higher. He faces a slumping Marlins team that is scoring only 1.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .205 batting average, .251 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .561 — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Miami has still lost seven of their last nine games — and they have lost 6 in a row after winning their last game. They have lost 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. Additionally, they have lost 27 of their last 38 games after an off day. They stay on the road where they have lost 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 6 in a row against teams with winning records. They counter with Garrett who has a 2-5 record along with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 11 starts. But while the left-hander has a 3.20 ERA in four starts at home, his ERA rises to a 4.23 ERA in his seven starts on the road. Garrett does show promise with some strong starts as of late — but he still has been saddled with a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts when pitching on the road. He faces a Phillies lineup that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .299 batting average, .352 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .936.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. Philadelphia has been priced as a -150 money-line favorite 28 times this season. While they have been upset seven times, in their 21 victories, under those circumstances, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 18 times. Miami has pulled off two upsets in their last 14 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their 12 losses in those situations. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Phillies (902) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (901) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Braxton Garrett. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-22 |
Padres v. Dodgers -130 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (73-33) won their seventh straight game — and 10th in their last 11 contests — with their 8-3 victory against the Padres in the second game of this series. San Diego (61-48) has lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is rolling now — and they have won 40 of their last 53 games after winning their last contest. They have also won 26 of their last 35 games after a win by four or more runs. Additionally, the Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11 games after winning two in a row against a divisional rival — and they have won 47 of their last 58 games at home after winning three or more games in a row. LA is crushing the baseball right now — they have scored 16 runs in the first two games in this series while plating 48 runners in their last seven contests. They have won 17 of their last 22 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last game. They have won 56 of their last 73 games at home at Dodger Stadium — and they have won 40 of their last 53 home games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 9 of their last 11 home games when priced as a money-line favorite no higher than -150 — and they have won 18 of their last 19 home games against NL West rivals. Anderson gets the start with his 12-1 record along with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 18 starts (20 appearances). The left-hander has been outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.59 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in nine games (eight starts) as opposed to his 3.17 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .235 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Dodgers have won 7 of his 8 starts at home this season — and Anderson’s teams have won 12 of their last 14 games when he is on the mound looking to extend a winning streak. He faces a Padres team that does not hit left-handed pitching very well — especially with Fernando Tatis yet to play this season. San Diego scores only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .244 batting average, .312 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .674. Since the beginning of June, the Padres rank 16th on the road in weighted on-base percentage and 17th on the road in weighted Runs Created. The Padres have lost 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 straight road games against left-handed starters. They made big moves at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader — but they still can’t beat the Dodgers. San Diego has now lost 7 of their 9 games against their NL West rivals — and they have lost 42 of their last 59 games against them in Dodger Stadium. The Padres have lost 5 straight games after dropping the first two games in a new series. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Darvish who has a 10-4 record along with a 3.30 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts. But while the right-hander thrives at home with a 2.17 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .172 in ten starts, those numbers rise to a 4.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Darvish had a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 home starts but a 5.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Darvish pitching with the Total set from 8.5-10 — and they have lost 13 of their 20 games in the second half of the season with him making the start.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .294 batting average, .337 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .827 in those contests. They have won 37 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 39 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-22 |
Red Sox -140 v. Royals |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-140 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Daniel Lynch. THE SITUATION: Boston (54-54) has won four of their last six games after their 7-4 victory against the Royals in the second game of this four-game series yesterday. Kansas City (42-65) has lost eight of their last 11 games after their loss last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston is playing better baseball after rallying around each other after management traded catcher Christian Vazquez at the trade deadline. The Red Sox have won 24 of their last 35 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have won 16 of their last 25 games on the road with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Eovaldi gets the ball with his 5-3 record with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 16 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.45 and 3.46 moving forward. He has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in nine starts as opposed to his 6.81 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in his seven starts at home. Boston has won 25 of their last 34 road games with Eovaldi on the mound as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a slumping Royals lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .229 batting average, .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .677 during that span. Kansas City has lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Since the beginning of June, they rank 20th and 22nd at home against right-handed pitching in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created. The Royals have lost 8 of their last 11 games after losing their last game. Kansas City has lost 15 of their last 20 home games when priced as a money-line underdog at +125 or higher. They counter with Lynch who has a 4-7 record with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 16 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.94 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in ten starts — but in his six starts at home, he has been saddled with a 5.97 ERA and .287 opponent’s batting average. The Royals have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Lynch pitching as a money-line underdog. Boston scores 5.0 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .263 batting average. The Red Sox have won 13 of their last 18 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 8 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has lost 35 of their last 51 games against AL East opponents — and Boston has won 10 of their last 13 games against teams from the AL Central. The Red Sox have won 16 of their last 21 games against the Royals — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games against them when playing in Kansas City. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Daniel Lynch. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-05-22 |
Reds v. Brewers -1.5 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (907) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Robert Dugger. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-48) has lost four games in a row after their 5-4 loss at Pittsburgh yesterday. Cincinnati (42-62) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 3-0 loss at Miami on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Milwaukee returns home for the first time since July 27th for this NL Central series — and they have won 4 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Brewers have won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 36 of their last 53 home games against teams with a losing record. Lauer gets the start tonight with his 7-3 record along with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander experienced a drop in velocity in June — but he has his zip back on his four-seamer after completing five starts in July where he posted a 2.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .202. He has been more effective at home this season where he enjoys a 2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in eight starts, as opposed to his 4.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 11, starts on the road. Lauer had a 3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in 66 1/3 innings last year at home at American Family Field. Milwaukee has won 8 of their last 11 games at night with Lauer on the mound. Cincinnati has not scored more than three runs in four straight games — and they have lost 20 of their last 25 games after not scoring more than three runs in three straight games. They stay on the road where they have lost 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. They are scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .225 batting average, .277 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .608. They have lost 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals. They counter with Dugger who has a 0-0 record this season with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 12 innings this season between Tampa Bay and then the Reds after he was scooped up off the waiver wire. Cincinnati left the right-hander off their 40-man roster last month — but after their moves at the trade deadline, the ranking Reds decided to give him an audition at the major league level. In 25 2/3 innings last year which included four starts for Seattle, Dugger had an 0-2 record with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. In his 14 2/3 innings on the road, he was saddled with a 10.43 ERA, 2.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .387. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .284 batting average, .370 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .884 during that span. Milwaukee has won 5 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. The Brewers have played 44 games this season priced as a money-line favorite priced higher than -150. They have been upset 18 times under those circumstances — but in their 26 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 19 times. Cincinnati has been a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher in 43 games this season. They have pulled the upset 13 times this year — but in their 30 losses in those circumstances, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 25 of those games. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Brewers (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (907) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Robert Dugger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-22 |
Blue Jays -122 v. Twins |
|
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (969) versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Alek Manoah and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Toronto (58-46) had their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 3-2 loss at Tampa Bay. Minnesota (55-49) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 victory against Detroit yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto has bounced-back to win 4 straight games after losing their previous game — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after a loss to a divisional rival. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Manoah takes the ball for the Blue Jays with an 11-5 record along with a 2.43 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts. He has a 2.37 ERA in his ten starts on the road as opposed to his 2.48 ERA at home. Toronto has won 5 of their last 7 road games with Manoah on the mound when priced up to -150 as a money-line favorite. He faces a Twins team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games at home against a right-handed starting pitcher. Minnesota has lost 22 of their last 28 games after winning their last game. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gray who has a 6-3 record with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.76 and 3.73 moving forward. He has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .192 — but he sees those numbers rise to a 3.96 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in eight starts at home. In his last five starts last month, Gray was saddled with a 5.92 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277. He faces a Blue Jays team that has won 10 of their last 12 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto will be looking to avenge an 8-6 upset loss at home to the Twins on June 5th — and the Blue Jays have won 13 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (969) versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Alek Manoah and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-03-22 |
Rockies v. Padres -1.5 |
|
1-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (911) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Chad Kuhl. THE SITUATION: San Diego (60-46) has won four games in a row — and six of their last eight — after their 3-2 victory against the Rockies yesterday in the second game of their doubleheader last night. Colorado (46-60) has lost four games in a row and six of their last seven after losing the first game of the doubleheader by a 13-5 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Both Juan Soto and Josh Bell are expected to make their debuts for San Diego tonight after the blockbuster trade with Washington yesterday. Soto gets most of the attention with the 24-year-old superstar having 21 home runs and 46 RBIs so far this season — but don’t sleep on Bell. The first baseman has 14 homers with 57 RBIs while hitting .301 this season. This combo immediately makes the Padres’ lineup significantly better with Manny Machado — and watch out when Fernando Tatis finally makes his debut with the club after being out all season with an injury. San Diego has won 4 straight games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Snell gets the ball with a 3-5 record along with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.89 and 3.86 moving forward. The Regression Gods may already have made their appearance for the left-hander after his five starts last month where he posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.32 WHIP while striking out 40 batters in 25 2/3 innings. A shoulder injury in his throwing arm did set him back earlier in the season. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 4.09 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in six starts as compared to his 4.82 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in six starts on the road. His teams have won 18 of their last 26 games at home when he is starting with the Total set at 8-8.5. He faces a slumping Rockies team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .244 batting average, .266 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .628. Colorado has lost 4 of their last 5 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after losing at least two games in a row on the road to a divisional rival. And while the Rockies have lost the first three games of this series, they have then lost 15 of their last 21 games when playing with triple revenge. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than two runs. Additionally, Colorado has lost 35 of their last 51 games on the road — and they have lost 4 straight against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games at Petco Park in San Diego against the Padres. They counter with Kuhl who has a 6-6 record along with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 19 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even worse numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.03 and 4.95 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home at Coors Field where he has a 4.17 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 — but in his ten starts on the road, he has a 5.03 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279. The Rockies have lost 9 of their last 13 road games with Kuhl their starting pitcher as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. Even without the additions of Soto and Bell, the Padres were heating on with their bats lately — they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .262 batting average, .341 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .830 during that span. They have won 4 in a row against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when San Diego wins, it is usually by more than one run. The Padres have played 33 games this season priced above my -150 price threshold — and while they have been upset 10 times, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 17 of their 23 victories under these circumstances. Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher 42 times this season — and while they have pulled the upset in 12 of those games, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 22 of their 30 losses in those situations. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego Padres (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (911) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Chad Kuhl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-03-22 |
A's v. Angels UNDER 7 |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (927) and the Los Angeles Angels (928) listing both starting pitchers James Kaprielian and Shohei Ohtani. THE SITUATION: Oakland (39-66) has lost three straight games after their 3-1 loss to the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (44-59) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. Kaprielian takes the mound with his 2-5 record along with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 4.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in nine starts as compared to his 4.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 at home. In his five starts last month, Kaprielian was outstanding with a 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182. He faces a slumping Angels lineup (without an injured Mike Trout) that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .220 batting average, .296 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .650 during that span. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 25-9-3 in their last 37 games after a victory. Additionally, the Angels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. The Under is also 10-2-2 in their last 14 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. They counter with Ohtani who has a 9-6 record along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics confirm just how dominant the right-hander has been on the mound with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.34 and 2.30 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .201 in nine starts as compared to his 3.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 on the road. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total with Ohtani on the mound when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces an A’s team that has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 encounters in Los Angeles at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (927) and the Los Angeles Angels (928) listing both starting pitchers James Kaprielian and Shohei Ohtani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-02-22 |
Diamondbacks v. Guardians -130 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-130 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Guardians (982) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (981) listing both starting pitchers Triston McKenzie and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (53-49) has won two games in a row — and five of their last seven — after taking the opening game of this series last night by a 6-5 score. Arizona (45-57) has lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GUARDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland has won 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They have won 6 of their last 7 games in Interleague play. They have also won 4 straight games at home — and they have won 19 of their 25 games this season at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. McKenzie gets the start with his 7-7 record along with a 3.24 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 18 starts (19 games). He comes off a great month where he sported a 1.54 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .165 in five July starts. He has been more effective at home where owns a 2.89 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182 win six starts as opposed to his 3.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209. The Guardians have won 5 of their 6 games at home this season with McKenzie on the mound. He faces a slumping Diamondbacks team that is hitting only .207 in their last seven games with a .280 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .646 during that span. Arizona has lost 24 of their last 34 games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while they ended their weekend series on Sunday with a 1-0 loss in Atlanta against the Braves, they have then lost 7 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row by only one run. They stay on the road where they have lost 21 of their last 31 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Gallen who has a 5-2 record along with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 19 starts. The sabermetrics do call for about a half-run of regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.70 and 3.78 moving forward. In his 11 starts at night, the right-hander has a 4.39 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has been most effective at home where he enjoys a 3.23 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in 11 starts -- but those numbers to rise on the road where he has a 3.24 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .217. The Diamondbacks have lost 17 of their last 25 road games with Gallen their starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Cleveland Guardians (982) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (981) listing both starting pitchers Triston McKenzie and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-01-22 |
Mets -1.5 v. Nationals |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Mets (903) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (904) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: New York (64-37) has won six straight games after their 9-3 victory at Miami against the Marlins yesterday. Washington (35-68) has lost three of their last four games after their 5-0 loss to St. Louis yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 5 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have won 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. They give the ball to Scherzer who has been outstanding this season with a 6-2 record to go along with a 2.09 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been reliable on the road where he sports a 2.08 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in seven starts. And in his ten starts at night, he has a 1.97 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .189. Washington has lost 42 of their last 60 games after a loss. They have also lost 58 of their last 80 games at home — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games at home with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Nationals have also lost 36 of their last 52 games against teams not winning more than 60% of their games. They counter with Corbin who has been a disaster with a 4-14 record along with a 6.49 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. In his 13 starts at night, Corbin has a 7.07 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .342. He faces a Yankees lineup that has won 16 of their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Bronx Bombers have won 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Since June 1st, New York leads MLB in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. Washington has been a +145 or higher money-line underdog 51 times this season. They have pulled off upsets in 17 of those games — but in their 34 losses in those games, they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 28 times. New York has been priced as a money-line favorite higher than -150 in 28 games this season. While they have been upset outright in 7 of those games, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their 21 victories. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Mets (903) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (904) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-31-22 |
Cubs v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-59) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-4 loss to the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (50-51) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs had won six straight games before dropping two of three. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after losing their last game. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Sampson takes the mound for the Cubs with his 0-1 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 39 1/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 10 2/3 innings which includes two starts as opposed to his 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .254 opponent’s batting average at home at Wrigley Field. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sampson on the hill priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He faces a slumping Giants lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .220 batting average, .270 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .624 in those games. San Francisco ranks 27th in MLB since June 1st in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 24th in weighted Runs Scored at home against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and the Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Rodon who has an 8-6 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 20 starts. The deeper sabermetrics validate his outstanding season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.12 and 3.14 moving forward. The lefty has a 2.05 ERA in his eight starts at home as opposed to his 3.88 ERA on the road. His teams have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when he is the starting pitcher priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Cubs team scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, .274 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .666 during that span. Since June 1st against left-handed starting pitchers, Chicago ranks 20th in weighted on-base percentage on the road and 23rd in weighted Runs Created. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 encounters against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at Oracle Park. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-22 |
Phillies -145 v. Pirates |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (53-47) has won three straight games after their 4-2 victory against the Pirates in the second game of this four-game series. Pittsburgh (40-60) has lost five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Phillies have won 21 of their last 31 games after winning their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after winning at least two games in a row. The Philly bullpen did not give up an earned run last night — and Philadelphia has won 28 of their last 42 games after their bullpen did not give up an earned run in their last contest. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, after winning the opening game of this series by an 8-7 score, they have won 5 of their last 7 games after winning their two previous games by no more than two runs. After a slow start to the season that got manager Joe Girardi fired, the Phillies have a 31-18 record since the beginning of June. They have won 19 of their last 29 games on the road — and they have won 5 straight games on the road. They give the ball to Suarez who has a 7-5 record with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 17 starts. After a slow start to the season, the left-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts spanning 10 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.54 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 when pitching at home. Philadelphia has won 6 straight games on the road with Suarez on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .187 batting average, .249 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .549 during that span. They rank 25th in MLB at home against left-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created. Pittsburgh has lost 8 of their last 10 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Pirates have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They have lost 40 of their last 51 games after losing the first two games of a series — and they have lost 27 of their last 30 games after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games at home. They counter with Keller who has a 3-7 record along with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games which include 17 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where has a 4.66 ERA and a .277 opponent’s batting average in nine games and eight starts at home as compared to his more modest 4.44 ERA and .271 opponent’s batting average on the road. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 8 home games with Keller on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have a .277 batting average in their last seven games — and they have won 23 of their last 34 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has also won 6 of their last 7 games against the Pirates. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Mitch Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-22 |
Royals v. Yankees -1.5 |
|
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 2:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (915) listing both starting pitchers Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Heasley. THE SITUATION: New York (68-33) has won two games in a row after their 11-5 victory against the Royals last night. Kansas City (39-61) has lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 43 of their last 60 games after winning their previous contest. They have won 20 of their last 22 games at home after scoring at least nine runs in their last game — and they have won 47 of their last 61 games at home after winning two games in a row. The Bronx Bombers have also won 40 of their last 52 games at home in Yankee Stadium. Cortes takes the mound with his 8-3 record along with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 18 starts. The left-hander has thrived in day games where he owns a 1.90 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .168 in eight starts. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.90 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .168 in eight starts as compared to his 2.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 on the road. The Yankees have won 7 of their last 8 games at home with Cortes on the hill as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. Kansas City had been shut out in three straight games before scoring five runs last night — they are scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. They have lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Royals have lost 6 of their last 7 games after losing their previous contest — and they have lost 12 of their last 18 games after allowing at least nine runs in their last contest. They have also dropped 5 straight games on the road. They counter with Heasley who has a 1-5 record with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 11 starts. The right-hander has been less effective in day games where he has a 5.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in five starts. The Royals have lost 4 of their 5 games during the day with Heasley on the hill. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road with Heasley their starting pitcher. He faces this Yankees lineup led by Most Valuable Player candidate Aaron Judge hitting from the left side that has won 42 of their last 62 home games against right-handed starting pitching.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying with this play — but when Atlanta wins, they usually do so by more than one run. In the last 45 games when the Braves have been priced above my -150 threshold, they have been upset 14 times — and in their 31 victories, 22 of them have been by more than one run. In the last 36 games when Kansas City has been priced as a money-line underdog of +145 or higher, they have pulled off the upset 11 times — but in their 25 losses, 20 of them have been by more than one run. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Yankees (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (915) listing both starting pitchers Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Heasley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-22 |
Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (957) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Wright and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (59-41) has lost three of their last four games after a 7-2 loss at Philadelphia on Wednesday. Arizona (45-53) has won three in a row and six of their last seven games after their 5-3 win against San Francisco on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has bounced back to win 52 of their last 70 games after losing their last game — and they have won 18 of their last 22 games at home after a loss by four or more runs. They have won 41 of their last 56 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 10 games after losing three of their last four games, they have won 9 of these contests. They return home where they have won 20 of their last 27 games — and they have won 17 of their last 22 games at home against teams with a losing record. They turn to Wright who has a 12-4 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where owns a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in 12 starts as compared to his 1.26 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Atlanta has won 8 straight games at home with Wright on the mound when priced as a -150 money-line or higher favorite. They have also won 12 straight games with Wright on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. He should have success against this Diamondbacks team that scores only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .215 batting average, .291 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .667. Arizona has lost 14 of their last 21 games after winning their last game by more than one run. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they have lost 50 of their last 65 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 38 of their last 45 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +175 to +250 price range. They counter with Bumgarner who has a 6-9 record with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 20 starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.61 and 4.70 moving forward. The veteran left-hander has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 3.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241 — but those numbers rise to a 4.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in nine starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have lost 11 of their last 13 road games with Bumgarner on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. He faces a Braves team that scores 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 12 of their last 15 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. And while Arizona is looking to avenge a 6-0 loss at home to the Braves back on June 1st, they have lost 35 of their last 48 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying with this play — but when Atlanta wins, they usually do so by more than one run. In the last 33 games when the Braves have been priced above my -150 threshold, they have been upset 10 times — and in their 23 victories, 18 of them have been by more than one run. Arizona has been priced as a money-line underdog of +145 or higher 37 times this season. They have pulled off the upset 14 times — but in their 23 losses, 19 of them have been by more than one run. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Braves (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (957) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Wright and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-22 |
Guardians v. Rays -109 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Cleveland Guardians (967) listing both starting pitchers Jeffrey Springs and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (53-46) has lost five of their last six games after their 3-0 shutout loss at Baltimore yesterday. Cleveland (50-48) has lost four of their last six contests after their 4-2 loss at Boston on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after suffering a shutout loss to a fellow American League East rival. And while the Rays only scratched out four hits against the Orioles, they have then won 27 of their last 39 games after not generating more than four base hits in their last game. Tampa Bay has also won 39 of their last 58 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, they return home to Tropicana Field for the first time since July 17th — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home after being on the road for at least a week. The Rays have won 6 straight games at home against teams with a winning record — and they have won 15 of their last 19 home games after losing three of their last four games. And in their last 60 games at home priced as a money-line favorite up to -150, they have won 41 of these contests. They have also beaten 12 of their last 13 opponents with winning records. Injuries have hit this team hard with over 1000 combined games lost to injury already this season. While they miss their young phenom at shortstop in Wander Franco who is out with a hand injury, most of their injuries have been with their pitching staff. But Tampa Bay continues to be resilient and rely on their top-notch development system. One of the players who they have found off the scrap heap to develop into another positive contributor is Springs who takes the ball for manager Kevin Cash tonight. The coaching staff has helped rely on his change up more this season to great success. The left-hander has a 3-2 record with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 68 1/3 innings between stints in the bullpen and as a starter. The deeper sabermetrics do not expect him to continue to suppress runs to that degree — but with his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 3.26 moving forward, the numbers underneath the hood validate his outstanding pitching. He has been outstanding at home where he has a 1.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in 30 2/3 innings at home in ten appearances which includes five starts. After a stint on the injured list from lower leg tightness, he allowed only one earned run in 4 2/3 innings in his return start on Sunday at Kansas City. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games with Springs their starting pitcher when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They have also won 8 of their last 11 games when Springs is their starting pitcher looking to attend a team losing streak. He faces a Guardians lineup that has just a .247 batting average, .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .672. Most of their best hitters hit on the left-side of the plate. Since June 1st, Cleveland ranks 29th in MLB in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 6 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Guardians have also lost 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games with the total set in the 7-7.5 range. They counter with Bieber who has a 4-6 record with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 18 starts. The velocity on his four-seam fastball is down 1.7 miles-per-hour this season — and after striking out at an elite-level 33.1% of opposing hitters last season, he is only striking out 24.3% of hitters this year. In his three starts this month, Bieber has a 5.23 ERA. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in seven starts — but his WHIP and an opponent’s batting average rise to 1.22 and .253 marks in his 11 starts on the road. Cleveland has lost 6 of their last 9 games with Bieber pitching as an underdog priced up to +150. He faces a Rays team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has lost 19 of their last 26 games against the Rays — and they have lost 7 in a row against them in Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Cleveland Guardians (967) listing both starting pitchers Jeffrey Springs and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-22 |
Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. THE SITUATION: Seattle (54-45) has won three games in a row after their 4-2 win against Texas yesterday. Houston (64-35) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss at Oakland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after upsetting a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row against an AL West opponent. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Mariners have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Gilbert gets the start with his 10-4 record along with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.19 ERA and a .248 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Gilbert starting on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Houston has played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. And while the Astros have scored only five runs in their last two games, they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three runs in two straight games. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 18 of their last 27 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Urquidy who has a 9-4 record along with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 as opposed to his 4.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 on the road. The Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Urquidy on the mound after losing their last game. He faces a Mariners team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* MLB Thursday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-27-22 |
Nationals v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
1-7 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (953) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (64-32) has lost the first two games of this series after their 8-3 loss at home to the Nationals last night. Washington (34-65) has won three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles was on an eight-game winning streak before the lowly Nationals took the first two games against them in this series. The Dodgers still have a 17-4 record this month — and their last seven victories have all been by more than one run. Los Angeles has bounced back to win 37 of their last 53 games after losing their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. Los Angeles has still won 53 of their last 70 games at home — and they have won 50 of their last 63 games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. Heaney gets the start tonight after a lengthy stay on the injured list due to a shoulder injury. The former Yankee was outstanding early in the season with his new team wearing Dodger blue as he posted a 1-0 record with a 0.59 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in three starts. He struck out 23 batters and walked only four in 15 1/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics confirm he should continue to see great numbers from that sample size with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.40 and 2.65 moving forward. He faces a Nationals team that has lost 19 of their last 26 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Washington has lost 24 of their last 32 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have lost 17 of their last 22 games even after yesterday’s victory — and they have lost 36 of their last 55 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road. They counter with Corbin who has a 4-13 record along with a dismal 6.02 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 20 starts. And while the left-hander has a 4.94 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .285 in 11 starts, he has been saddled with a 7.38 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .349 batting average in nine starts on the road. Washington has lost 14 of their last 16 games with Corbin on the mound as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 71 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 25 of those games — and in their 46 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 41 times. Washington has been priced as a +145 money-line underdog 49 times this season. They pulled off the upset 17 times — and in their 32 losses, they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 26 times. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (953) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-22 |
Astros v. A's UNDER 7 |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-125 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Houston (64-33) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 7-5 loss to the A’s last night. Oakland (36-63) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 40-19-6 in the Astros’ last 65 games after a loss — and the Under is 29-14-1 in their last 44 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 33-16-4 in Houston’s last 53 games on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. Garcia gets the ball with his 8-5 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics confirm his good season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.53 and 3.58 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in .193 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in nine starts at home. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Garcia their starting pitcher on the road priced at -110 or higher. He faces an A’s team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight Unders against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while the A’s have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. At home, Oakland is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .202 batting average, .264 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .580. Montas takes the mound for the A’s to further his 3-9 record despite a 3.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 2.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 batting average in 11 starts as compared to his 5.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 when pitching on the road. Oakland has played 10 of their 11 games Under the Total with Montas pitching at home — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total with Montas their starting pitcher with the Total set at 7 or less. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AL West — and the Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional foes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Oakland. Lastly, Houston has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-22 |
Nationals v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-143 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Paolo Espino. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (64-30) has won eight-straight games after their 7-4 victory against San Francisco yesterday. Washington (32-65) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 4-3 victory at Arizona on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has a 17-2 record this month — and their last seven victories have all been by more than one run. The Dodgers have won 45 of their last 62 games after winning their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least two in a row against division opponents. Los Angeles has won 53 of their last 68 games at home — and they have won 50 of their last 61 games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. And while the last time the Dodgers played the Nationals, they lost by a 1-0 score in Washington on May 25th — but they have then won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. They give the ball to Gonsolin who has an 11-0 record with a 2.02 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.13 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .130 in eight starts as opposed to his 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204. The Dodgers have won 11 straight games at home when Gonsolin is their starting pitcher priced at -150 or higher as the money-line favorite. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .217 batting average, .275 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .600 during that span. Washington has lost 37 of their last 52 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Nationals have lost 17 of their last 20 games even after yesterday’s victory. Washington has lost 36 of their last 51 games after winning their last game. The Nationals have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 7-8.5. They have also lost 46 of their last 60 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Espino who has an 0-3 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 58 innings this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 4.32 moving forward. The Nationals have lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a money-line underdog with Espino on the mound. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .869 during that span. Los Angeles has won 41 of their last 52 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 69 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 23 of those games — and in their 46 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 41 times. Washington has been priced as a +145 money-line underdog 47 times this season. They pulled off the upset 15 times — and in their 32 loss, they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 26 times. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Paolo Espino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-24-22 |
Padres v. Mets -125 |
|
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (914) versus the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: New York (58-37) had won four in a row — but they have dropped three in a row after a 2-1 loss at home to the Padres yesterday. San Diego (54-42) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 27 of their last 35 games after losing their last game. They have also won 20 of their last 29 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. And while the Mets have only scored two combined runs in their last two games, they have then won 10 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than runs in two straight games. They have still won 17 of their last 26 games at home. Carrasco gets the ball with his 10-4 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 18 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.57 and 3.48 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.59 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in ten starts as compared to his 5.23 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .289 on the road. The Mets have won 6 of their 8 games this season at home with Carrasco on the hill when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Padres team that has lost 9 of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 10 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 10 of their last 15 games on the road. They counter with Musgrove who has an 8-2 record with a 2.42 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander has been very tough to hit at home in the spacious Petco Park where he sports a 2.20 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .193 — but those numbers rise to a 2.59 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in his nine starts on the road. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.40 and 3.28 moving forward. The Regression Gods may have already arrived for Musgrove as he has been saddled with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in four starts. He got tagged for five runs in five innings of work in his last appearance on the mound in Colorado on July 13th. San Diego has lost 3 of their last 4 games when Musgrove was pitching with at least seven days between starts. The Padres have also lost 6 of their last 9 games in July with Musgrove on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 13 of their last 14 games when avenging an upset loss at home to their opponent. 10* MLB San Diego-NY Mets ESPN Special with the money-line on the New York Mets (914) versus the San Diego Padres (913) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-23-22 |
Padres v. Mets -146 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-146 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (958) versus the San Diego Padres (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: New York (58-36) had won four in a row — but they have dropped their last two after a 4-1 loss at home to the Padres last night. San Diego (53-42) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 27 of their last 34 games after losing their last game — and they have won 19 of their last 24 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also won 20 of their last 26 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. And while the Mets have only scored three combined runs in their last two games, they have then won 10 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than runs in two straight games. They have still won 17 of their last 25 games at home. Bassitt gets the ball with his 7-6 record along with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.55 and 3.59 mark moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.12 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in nine starts as compared to his 4.67 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241. His teams have won 31 of their last 42 games with him on the mound and are priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Padres team that has lost 9 of their last 12 games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 10 of their last 14 games on the road. They counter with Snell who has a 1-5 record with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 10 starts. The left-hander has been hit particularly hard on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.87 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in five starts as opposed to his 4.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP at home at the spacious Petco Park. The Padres have lost 11 of their last 14 road games with Snell on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a Mets team that has won 8 of their last 10 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 15 of their last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 13 straight games when avenging an upset loss at home to their opponent. 20* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (958) versus the San Diego Padres (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-22 |
Giants v. Dodgers -139 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) versus the San Francisco Giants (913) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Logan Webb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (61-30) has won six straight games — and 16 of their last 18 games — after their 9-6 victory at home against the Giants last night. San Francisco (48-44) had won three in a row before last night’s loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 42 of their last 59 games after winning their last game. The Dodgers have also won 56 of their last 82 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They have won 31 of their last 44 games at home at Dodger Stadium when priced as a favorite at -110 or higher. They give the ball to Anderson who has a 10-1 record along with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 17 games which includes 15 starts this season. He has thrived at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in eight games (seven starts) as compared tp his 3.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 on the road. The left-hander has a 2-0 record in his three starts this month with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP after pitching six scoreless innings in his last appearance on the road at St. Louis last Thursday — and his teams have won 7 of their last 8 games when he is on the mound following up a start where he did not an earned run. He should pitch very well against this Giants team that has lost 12 of their last 17 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP no higher than 1.15. San Francisco has also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road as a money-line underdog. They counter with Webb who has a 9-3 record with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander owns a 2.43 ERA in 11 starts at home — but his ERA rises to a 3.35 ERA in eight starts on the road. These disparate home-road splits are consistent with last season when Webb has a 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 at home but a 4.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .253 opponent’s batting average on the road. San Francisco has lost 8 of their last 11 road games with Webb on the hill pitching as a money-line underdog priced up to +150.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 40 of their last 52 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) versus the San Francisco Giants (913) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Logan Webb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-22 |
Angels v. Braves -141 |
|
1-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (928) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels (927) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Shohei Ohtani. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (56-38) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 7-3 loss at Washington on Sunday. Los Angeles (39-53) has lost three in a row and eight of their last nine contests with a 7-1 loss at home to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has won 50 of their last 67 games after a loss — and they have won 39 of their last 53 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They return home where they have won 19 of their last 26 games at home. They give the ball to Morton who has a 5-4 record with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.60 and 3.70 moving forward. Perhaps the Regression Gods have already sprinkled their magic dust on the right-hander — since the beginning of June, Morton has a 3.44 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in eight starts. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 4.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 on the road. The Braves have won 7 of their 9 games this season with Morton the starting pitcher priced as a -110 or higher favorite. He faces an Angels team with the injured Mike Trout that has lost 25 of their last 34 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 7 games in a row on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has lost 29 of their last 39 games after a loss — and they have lost 28 of their last 39 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. They have also lost 14 of their last 16 games after an off-day. They go back on the road where they have lost 20 of their last 26 games on the road. They have also lost 37 of their last 52 games against winning teams. They counter with Ohtani who has a 9-4 record with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-handed phenom has a 2.05 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and .184 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home — but those numbers do rise to a 2.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts on the road. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road with Ohtani pitching as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 11 of their last 15 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (928) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels (927) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Shohei Ohtani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-22 |
Giants v. Dodgers -120 |
|
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 10:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (952) versus the San Francisco Giants (951) listing both starting pitchers Mitch White and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (60-30) has won five straight games — and 15 of their last 17 games — after their 7-1 win at Los Angeles against the Angels on Saturday. San Francisco (48-43) has won three in a row after their 9-5 victory against Milwaukee on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 41 of their last 58 games after winning their last game — and they have won 18 of their last 27 games after a victory by four or more runs. The Dodgers have also won 55 of their last 81 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 39 of their last 55 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 20 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. They return home where they have won 30 of their last 43 games when priced as a favorite at -110 or higher. They give the ball to White who has a 1-2 record along with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 13 games which includes eight starts this season. In his 20 innings at home consisting of three starts and six appearances, he has been more effective with a 3.60 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .224 as opposed to his 4.68 ERA and .247 opponent’s batting average in 25 innings on the road. He faces a Giants team that has lost 11 of their last 15 games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco has lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also lost 12 of their last 16 games on the road as a money-line underdog. They counter with Rodon who has an 8-5 record with a 2.66 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.67 and 3.55 moving forward. The left-hander has been outstanding at home with a 2.05 ERA in eight starts — but his ERA rises to a 3.10 mark in his ten stars on the road. His teams going back to his time with the Chicago White Sox have lost 7 of their last 9 games with him on the mound as an underdog. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 37 of their last 51 home games against left-handed starting pitchers
|
07-19-22 |
American League v. National League -110 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the National League (946) versus the American League (945) in the All-Star Game. THE SITUATION: The National League is the home team this season with this game taking place at Dodger Stadium, the home of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The American League has won eight straight midsummer classics after beating the NL by a 5-2 score last year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I give the National League the edge with the pitching staff that is at the disposal for manager Brian Snitker of the Atlanta Braves. Even with Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodon not available and replaced by other hurlers, the National League remains loaded with big arms. I love the wall that Snitker can build with three Dodger starting pitchers who are comfortable and thriving in Dodger Stadium this season. Clayton Kershaw is the NL’s starting pitcher — he takes a 2.05 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in five home starts this season (held back by injury). In his 199 career starts at Dodger Stadium, the future Hall of Fame has a 2.20 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP — and he will have the big-time support of his home fans tonight. Snitker can then turn to Tony Gonsolin who may be on track to win the NL Cy Young Award this season. The right-hander has a 1.13 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .130 in eight starts at home this year. Snitker can then tap Tyler Anderson who has a 2.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in eight games (seven starts) at Dodger Stadium. Snitker can then turn to Miami’s Sandy Alcantara who has a 1.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .207 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. San Diego’s Joe Musgrove has a 2.59 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .245 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo has a 2.09 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .188 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. If Miles Mikolas is the weak link among the available starting pitchers for Snitker, the veteran right-hander still has a 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .230 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. Depending on how long Snitker keeps Kershaw in the game (two innings?), that core of starting pitchers covers the National League through six or seven innings. He can then tap one of the five relievers at his disposal headlined by the New York Mets’ Edwin Diaz who is enjoying a career year. The American League will not have starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole available to them tonight — and that hurts them more than the NL losses given the depth of what is left for manager Dusty Baker. I have no quibbles with Shane McClanahan and Alek Manoah — but I think there are some weak links that the NL will take advantage of tonight. The New York Yankees’ Nestor Cortes started the season strong — but he has been saddled with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his last eight starts as opponents started getting a book on his funky windups and throwing angles. The left-hander does his best work at home at Yankee Stadium where he has a 1.90 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .168 in eight starts — but he has a more modest 3.35 ERA and .245 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. The dismal Oakland A’s had to have someone represent their team — and it is their starting pitcher Paul Blackburn despite his 3.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and .241 opponent’s batting average this season. The right-hander has a 4.44 ERA in his ten starts at night. Even Shohei Ohtani does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.05 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and .184 opponent’s batting average in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 2.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .216 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Furthermore, the American League will be without one of the best players in the game in Mike Trout along with a perennial All-Star in second baseman Jose Altuve due to injuries. The National League will miss Bryce Harper, Nolan Arenado, Sterling Matte, and Jazz Chisholm — but those losses are not as impactful, in my opinion, given the replacements at Snitker’s disposal.
FINAL TAKE: The National League has an inherent advantage by batting last as the home team. And while the motivation to win this game has returned to being only about pride and professionalism with home field in the World Series determined by regular season record, the NL is likely fed up with their seven-game losing streak in the Midsummer Classic. 10* MLB All-Star Game Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the National League (946) versus the American League (945). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-22 |
Mets -134 v. Cubs |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-134 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (907) versus the Chicago Cubs (908) listing both starting pitchers David Peterson and Adrian Sampson. THE SITUATION: New York (58-34) won their fourth straight game yesterday with their 4-3 victory against the Cubs. Chicago (34-57) has lost nine games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least four games in a row. They have also won 4 straight games on the road — and they have won 20 of their last 29 road games when priced as a -110 money-line favorite or higher. Peterson gets the start with his 5-2 record along with a 3.48 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 14 games (12 starts). The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.84 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in eight games (six starts) as compared to his 4.30 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .265. The Mets have won 4 of his road starts this season. He should pitch well against this Cubs team that has lost 11 of their last 16 games at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 36 of their last 52 games after losing their last game. The Cubs have lost 36 of their last 52 games after losing their last game. And while they have not scored more than three runs in five straight games, they have then lost 10 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. Chicago has lost 41 of their last 58 games at home at Wrigley Field — and they have lost 18 of their last 25 home games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They have also lost 22 of their last 27 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They counter with Sampson who has a 0-1 record along with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 27 innings. He has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .258 opponent’s batting average in 16 1/3 innings in four appearances at home which included two starts as opposed to his 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 on the road. The Cubs have lost 8 of their last 11 games at home with Sampson their starting pitcher and priced as a money-line underdog up to +150.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 6 of their last 7 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (907) versus the Chicago Cubs (908) listing both starting pitchers David Peterson and Adrian Sampson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-22 |
White Sox -114 v. Twins |
|
11-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (925) versus the Minnesota Twins (926) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Chris Archer. THE SITUATION: Chicago (45-46) had won four games in a row before their 6-3 loss to the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (50-43) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago may be underachieving with their overall record — but manager Tony LaRussa’s team has been tough on the road where they have won 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set at 7-8.5. The White Sox have also won 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. Cease gets the ball with his 8-4 record along with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 18 starts. Over his last eight starts, the right-hander has a 0.61 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP while allowing only three earned runs. And in his eight starts on the road, Cease has a 1.52 ERA. He faces a Twins team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has lost 18 of their last 23 games after a win. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games at home. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Archer who comes off the injured list after dealing with left hip tightness. He has a 2-3 record with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.03 and 4.98 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in seven starts as compared to his 2.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 21 of their last 31 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (925) versus the Minnesota Twins (926) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Chris Archer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-16-22 |
Mets -1.5 v. Cubs |
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4-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New York Mets (981) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (982) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Drew Smyly. THE SITUATION: New York (57-34) won their third straight game this afternoon with their 2-1 win against the Cubs in 11 innings in the first game of their doubleheader. Chicago (34-56) has lost eight games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 8 of their last 11 games in the second game of a doubleheader. The Mets have also won 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Scherzer goes to the mound in tonight’s nightcap to further his 6-1 record along with a 2.15 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in ten starts. The veteran right-hander has been spectacular since returning to action after missing time with an oblique injury. In his two starts since his return, he has allowed only one earned run while posting an 0.69 ERA and a 0.34 WHIP in 13 innings. Scherzer has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.95 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in six starts as compared to his 2.45 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in four home starts. His teams have won 15 of heir last 19 road games with Scherzer on the hill and priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. He should be poised to have a great game against this Cubs team that began the day scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .198 batting average, .238 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .564 during that span. Chicago has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have lost 6 in a row in the second game of a doubleheader — and they have lost 29 of their last 38 home games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They have also lost 39 of their last 56 games at home at Wrigley Field. And in their last 28 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games, Chicago has lost 22 of these games. They counter with Smyly who has a 2-5 record along with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 10 starts. The left-hander has not been as effective at home with the Cubs this season where he has a 4.86 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in four starts as compared to his 4.18 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP on the road. Smyly’s teams have lost 10 of their last 14 home games with him on the mound pitching with the Total set at 8-8.5. He faces a Mets team that has won 14 of their last 17 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 15 of their last 21 games against left-handed staring pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. The Mets have been a money-line favorite priced higher than -150 in 25 games this season. They have won and covered the point spread in 15 of these contests — and they have only failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in victory four times. The Cubs have been priced as a money-line underdog priced at +145 in 27 games this season. They have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 13 of those contests — and they have only covered the +1.5 Run-Line in a loss three times. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Mets (981) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (982) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Drew Smyly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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