04-28-24 |
Royals v. Tigers -150 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (962) versus the Kansas City Royals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Detroit (15-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 6-5 victory against the Royals in the second game of their three-game series on Saturday. Kansas City (17-11) had won four games in a row before the loss. REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Royals had a 3-1 lead going into the bottom of the seventh inning yesterday — but their bullpen surrounded five runs in that inning to blow that save opportunity. Kansas City has lost 27 of their last 36 games after their bullpen blew a save. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after a one-run loss to an AL Central rival — and they have lost 18 of their last 20 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 32 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range, they have lost 25 of those games. Wacha gets the ball this afternoon looking to build on his 1-2 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in five starts. He has been more effective at home where he has a 1.59 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in two starts as opposed to his 5.29 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his three starts on the road. Granted, the sample size is still small — but it is consistent with his numbers last season with San Diego. In his 14 starts in the spacious Petco Park, he enjoyed a 2.62 ERA — that mark rose to a 4.14 ERA in his 10 starts on the road. Wacha’s teams have lost 5 of their last 7 road games when he is the starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. Furthermore, while he had a 3.22 ERA in his 24 starts last year, both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.43 and 4.47. I am leaning in to expected ERA (xERA) more this season as I am impressed with Statcast’s incorporation of hard-hit rate and exit velocity — and Wacha’s xERA last season was 4.27. He faces one of the biggest breakout stars in the game in Skubal. The left-hander comes off six shutout innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. He has a 3-0 record this season with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings. He has punched out 35 batters while only issuing five bases-on-balls — and he is striking out 31.2% of the batters he has faced. This start continues the great run he was on last year coming back from a midseason injury. Since the beginning of September through this month, Skubal has a 7-0 record with a 1.35 ERA. Last season, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in 15 starts — and those numbers were validated by a 2.77 SIERA and a 2.56 xFIP along with an xERA of 2.30. In his eight starts at home last year, he sported a 1.37 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and a .171 opponent batting average. This season, Skubal has a 2.56 SIERA and a 2.54 xFIP — and his xERA is 2.13. We can live with regression to those numbers from his current 1.82 ERA. The Tigers have won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Skubal pitching with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He should thrive once again against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .595. FINAL TAKE: Manager A.J. Hinch makes sure his team is ready to play against divisional foes as Detroit has won 43 of their last 64 games against AL Central rivals. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (962) versus the Kansas City Royals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-24 |
Diamondbacks v. Mariners -142 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (929) listing both starting pitchers George Kirby and Slade Cecconi. THE SITUATION: Seattle (14-12) has won four of their last five games — and eight of their last ten contests — after their 6-1 victory against the Diamondbacks in Game One of this series last night. Arizona (12-15) has lost two straight games and six of their last nine contests. REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle has won 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also won 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. Kirby gets the ball making his sixth start of the season. In his 31 starts last season, the right-hander was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 2.70 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in 15 starts as compared to his 3.98 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in his 16 starts on the road. He got crushed for eight runs in 3 2/3 innings in a start at home against Cleveland back on April 3rd — but he has allowed only two earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his other two starts at Safeco Park this season. The Mariners have won 17 of their 27 games at home when Kirby is on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Arizona continues their ten-game road trip with the ninth game away from home — and they have lost 14 of their last 22 games after playing at least seven straight games on the road. The Diamondbacks have also lost 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog. They counter with Cecconi who gave up only two runs in six innings of work in his first start of the season at San Francisco on Sunday. He is taking the spot of Merrill Kelly in the starting rotation. In 27 innings at the MLB level last year, he had a 0-1 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. But the deeper sabermetrics were not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.35 and 4.58 — and his expected ERA (xERA) that takes into account hard-hit rates and exit velocities (a stat I am going to start privileging) raised to 4.77. He was more effective at home as well where he enjoyed a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in 15 2/3 innings as opposed to his 1.32 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average in 11 1/3 innings on the road. FINAL TAKE: The Mariners have won 10 of their last 16 games when priced as the money-line favorite at -110 or higher. 8* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (929) listing both starting pitchers George Kirby and Slade Cecconi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-24 |
Rangers v. Braves OVER 10 |
|
6-4 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (929) and the Atlanta Braves (14-5) listing both starting pitchers Michael Lorenzen and Darius Vines. THE SITUATION: Texas (11-11) has lost two games in a row after dropping the second game of this series by a 5-2 score yesterday. Atlanta (14-5) has won six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Lorenzen makes his second start for them after tossing five shutout innings against Detroit on Monday. The 32-year-old right-hander had a 9-9 record pitching for both the Tigers and Philadelphia with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 29 games (25 starts). The deeper sabermetrics indicate he probably overachieved since both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.87 and 4.68. and while he had a 3.77 ERA in 16 appearances in home games, his ERA rose to a 4.70 clip in his 13 games on the road. His teams have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with him as their starting pitcher as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. He now faces a hot-hitting Braves team that leads MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Atlanta has played 35 of their last 56 home games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They counter with Vines who only allowed one run in 4 2/3 innings of work in his first start of the season at Houston on Monday. He had a 1-0 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in his 20 1/3 innings at the MLB level last season — but both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 5.09 and 5.58 given his underlying peripheral numbers. Even with his 2.36 ERA in 34 1/3 innings in Triple-A last year, his xFIP rose to a 4.96 mark. The Braves have played 22 of their last 33 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite in the -150 to -200 range — and they have played 17 of their last 22 home games Over the Total in April.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves are scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game this season — and the Rangers have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against National League teams scoring 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (929) and the Atlanta Braves (14-5) listing both starting pitchers Michael Lorenzen and Darius Vines. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-14-24 |
Padres v. Dodgers -140 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) versus the San Diego Padres (957) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 5-2 victory against the Padres yesterday. San Diego (8-9) had won two games in a row before that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Dodgers have now won 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also won 50 of their last 68 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Paxton makes his third start of the season after a great start with his new club. He has a 2-0 record with a 1.64 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Last year with Boston, the left-hander had a 7-5 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 19 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should have seen better results. Both his SIERA and his xFIP projected an ERA of 4.11 and 3.98. His teams have won 6 of their last 8 games when he is on the mound with the Total set from 7-8.5. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 6 games after losing two of their last three games. They counter with Darvish who has a 0-1 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in his first four starts. The right-hander took a step back last year — and his numbers away from Petco Park were the most alarming. He had a 4.36 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 13 starts at home — but those numbers rose to a 4.80 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in his 11 starts on the road. He also had a 4.78 ERA in his seven starts for day games — and the Padres have lost 13 of their last 20 day games with Darvish as their starting pitcher. San Diego has also lost 13 of their last 16 games with Darvish on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road with Darvish pitching as an underdog priced up to +150.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 45 of their last 63 games against teams winning 46-49% of their games. 8* MLB San Diego-LA Dodgers ESPN Special with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) versus the San Diego Padres (957) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-23 |
Rangers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen in Game Five of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (102-76) took a 3-1 series lead with their 11-7 victory on the road last night. Arizona (94-84) looks to keep their season alive and force a Game Six back in Texas on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Even without Adolis Garcia who is out the rest of the World Series, the Rangers exploded for five runs in the second inning and another five runs in the third inning to quickly take control of Game Four. Texas has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game where at least 17 combined runs were scored. The Rangers have not committed an error in six straight games — and they have played 23 of their last 35 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games without committing an error. Texas committed only 57 errors in the regular season which is the second-fewest in the league Eovaldi gets the ball tonight after giving up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander had one bad inning where he gave up three runs with the Diamondbacks getting a couple of seeing-eye ground ball base hits before Corbin Carroll broke things open with a triple. Look for Eovaldi to bounce back with a strong effort — he has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in five starts in these playoffs. The underlying sabermetrics are very encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP from those five starts projecting an ERA of 2.72 and 2.63 moving forward. Eovaldi has plenty of big-game experience in the postseason going back to his time with the Boston Red Sox. He has a 10-1 career record in the postseason with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.10 ERA as a starter. In three starts on the road in these playoffs, he has a 2.84 ERA — and he posted a 3.56 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 13 road starts in the regular season. He faces this Diamondbacks team that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Arizona has played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after allowing nine or more runs — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing ten or more runs in their last game. They have also played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Diamondbacks have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Five of the runs allowed last night were unearned runs coming from a Christian Walker error in a rare fielding misstep for this team that led MLB with only 56 errors in the regular season. They counter with Gallen who gave up three earned runs in five innings of work in Game One of this series. The right-hander has struggled with command in the postseason — but four of his five starts have been on the road where he had a 4.43 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 18 starts on the road in the regular season. But in his 16 starts at home in the regular season, he enjoyed a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230. While he averaged 2.42 bases-on-balls per nine innings on the road in the regular season, his command was much better at home where only walked 1.59 batters per nine innings. Arizona has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with Gallen on the mound priced in the +/- 125 range. They have also played 24 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range. The Rangers will miss Garcia’s scorching hot bat — he had a .323 batting average, a .382 on-base percentage, and a 1.108 OPS in these playoffs with eight home runs and 22 RBIs.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 10 or more runs. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Rangers -139 |
|
9-1 |
Loss |
-139 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:03 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (944) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (943) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Merrill Kelly in Game Two of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (100-75) has won three games in a row after their comeback 6-5 victory in 11 innings in the opening of the World Series last night. Arizona (93-82) had won two games in a row before suffering that loss in Game One.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas seized the early momentum in this series by scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning before winning on a walk-off home run by Adolis Garcia in the 11th inning. The Rangers have won a decisive 62 of their last 99 games after winning their last game — and they have won 22 of their last 31 games after a win by two runs or less. They stay at home tonight where they have won 28 of their last 43 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Montgomery gets the start tonight. The left-hander has a 3-0 record with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in five appearances (four starts) in these playoffs. He faces a Diamondbacks team that struggles against left-handed pitching. Arizona ranked 25th and 26th in MLB in the regular season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank just 27th in those categories since September 1st through the end of the regular season. The Diamondbacks have lost 51 of their last 82 games after a loss by only one run. They counter with Kelly who had a 12-8 record in the regular season with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 2.59 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .183 — but in his 15 starts on the road in the regular season, those numbers rose to a 4.07 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers ranked second in MLB in the regular season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 10* MLB World Series Fox-TV Game Two Special with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (944) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (943) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-27-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Rangers -150 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:03 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (942) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (941) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen in Game One of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (99-75) has won two games in a row after rallying from their 3-2 deficit in the ALCS after their 11-4 win at Houston on Monday. Arizona (93-81) has won four of their last five games after their 4-2 win at Philadelphia to win the NLCS in Game Seven of that series on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas has won 8 of their last 10 games after winning their previous game by six or more runs. They have also won 21 of their last 27 games after scoring ten or more runs in their last contest. The Rangers return home where they have won 43 of their last 69 games when priced as a -110 favorite or higher. They are scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .272 batting average, a .344 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .838. Eovaldi gets the ball after allowing only two earned runs in his 6 1/3 innings of work at Houston last Sunday. The right-hander has been outstanding with a 4-0 record to go along with a 2.42 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in four starts. He has 28 strikeouts and just four walks in his 26 innings of work in these playoffs. Texas has won 10 of the last 12 games at home with Eovaldi at home priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. His teams have also won 10 of their last 11 games in October when he is on the mound. He faces a Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .236 batting average, a .294 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .641. Arizona has lost 26 of their last 43 games after winning their last game by two runs or less. And while the Diamondbacks have played three straight Unders, they have then lost 15 of their last 23 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Gallen gets the start after giving up four runs in six innings in his last start at home against Philadelphia on Saturday. The right-hander was more effective at home in the regular season where he had a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 16 starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.43 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 18 starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 14 road games with Gallen on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers rank second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (942) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (941) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Phillies -152 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-152 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line with the Philadelphia Phillies (938) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (937) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Seven of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (98-76) has lost three of their last four games after their 5-1 loss at home to the Diamondbacks yesterday. Arizona (92-81) forced a climactic Game Seven with their win last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has still won 10 of their last 14 playoff games when they can close out the series — and they have won 5 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied. They have also won 22 of their last 30 home games when priced as the money-line favorite in the -150 to -200 range — and they have won 25 of their last 37 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Suarez gets the ball after pitching 5 1/3 innings of scoreless ball in his start in Game Three last Thursday. The left-hander has a 3-0 record with a 0.94 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in eight games including six starts in his career in the postseason. In 14 regular season starts at night, he had a 3.84 ERA — and the Phillies have won 28 of their last 41 games at night with Suarez on the mound. He faces a Diamondbacks team that struggles against left-handed pitchers. They rank 25th and 26th this season on the road against left-handed pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created — and they fall to 26th and 27th in those categories since July 1st. In their last seven games, Arizona is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .226 batting average, a .291 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .678. They counter with Pfaadt who has thrown 10 scoreless innings in his last two starts at home in the postseason — but he did get hit hard for seven hits and three runs in just 2 2/3 innings the last time he pitched on the road against Milwaukee earlier this month in the NL Wildcard Playoffs. He faces the Phillies that rank fifth and sixth in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won 17 of their last 26 games when avenging an upset as a home favorite to their current opponent. 8* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line with the Philadelphia Phillies (938) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (937) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-23 |
Rangers v. Astros -124 |
Top |
11-4 |
Loss |
-124 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:03 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (934) versus the Texas Rangers (933) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer in Game Seven of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (96-76) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 9-2 loss at home to the Rangers in Game Six last night. Texas (98-75) staved off elimination to force this decisive Game Seven tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 17 of their last 26 games after a loss by six or more runs — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Astros have also won 31 of their last 45 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Furthermore, they have won 6 of their last 8 playoff games when they can close out the series despite last night’s loss. Javier gets the start after posting a 1.69 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .111 in his two previous starts this postseason. The right-hander has a remarkable 1.85 ERA along with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 34 career innings in his playoff career. He has struck out 49 batters in the postseason. Javier struggled in the regular season with a 10-5 record along with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 31 starts — but he was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 3.71 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 starts. But now his velocity is back up — and he is pitching as well as he has at any time in his career. The Astros have won 19 of their last 27 home games with Javier on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They have won 9 straight games with Javier pitching with the total set in the 9-9.5 range. And they have won 6 straight playoff games with Javier their starting pitcher. The last five games in this series have finished Over the Total — but Texas has lost 18 of their last 30 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. The Rangers turn to Scherzer despite his giving up five runs in four innings in his previous start in his series last Wednesday. The right-hander made his first start since September 12th when he went on the injured list with a shoulder strain. He has not built his arm strength after only one rehab appearance before that outing. If this was the regular season, this would probably be his third and final rehabilitation appearance. Even if he was back to 100%, he was less effective on the road this season. While he posted a 3.09 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP in 12 regular season starts, those numbers rose to a 4.31 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts on the road. Scherzer’s teams have lost 7 of their last nine games in the playoffs when he is the starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: It is interesting that the road team has won all six games in this series — but I think that trend ends tonight. The reigning World Series champions will find a way to win this game tonight — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss at home by six or more runs. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (934) versus the Texas Rangers (933) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-23 |
Phillies -122 v. Diamondbacks |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-122 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (913) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Cristopher Sanchez and Joe Mantiply in Game Four of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (97-74) had their four-game winning streak snapped last night in a 2-1 loss on the road to the Diamondbacks. Arizona (90-80) trails 2-1 in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONEY-LINE ON THE PHILLIES: Philadelphia took a 1-0 lead in the top of the seventh inning — but their bullpen gave the game away by allowing a run in the bottom of the seventh inning before losing the game in the bottom of the ninth. The Phillies have bounced back to win 16 of their last 23 games after their relievers blew a save in their last game. They have only allowed two runs in the last two games of this series — and they have won 21 of their last 31 games after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. Philadelphia has won 18 of their last 27 road games when priced as the money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Sanchez gets the start tonight after posting a 3-5 record along with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 19 appearances and 99 1/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.33 and 3.09 moving forward. He also had a 2.08 ERA along with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in his six games (five starts) on the road. The Phillies have won 8 of their last 12 games with Sanchez their starting pitcher priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Arizona has lost 14 of their last 21 games after a win by one run or less. And while they have not scored more than three runs in this series, they have then lost 9 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than three runs in three straight games. They counter with Mantiply who has a 2-2 record with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 39 innings. He is not expected to pitch more than an inning with this being a bullpen game for the Diamondbacks. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.37 ERA along with a 1.46 WHIP in the last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a loss by just one run. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Phillies (913) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Cristopher Sanchez and Joe Mantiply. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-23 |
Phillies -118 v. Diamondbacks |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 5:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Three of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (97-73) has won four games in a row after their 10-0 victory at home against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Arizona (89-80) has lost two games in a row to fall behind in this series by an 0-2 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia is playing with tons of momentum — they have won 21 of their last 28 games in October. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games after shutting out their last opponent. They have held the Diamondbacks to just three runs in this series — and they have won 21 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. Furthermore, the Phillies have won 32 of their last 53 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. Suarez gets the start after posting a 4-6 record along with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 22 regular season starts. The left-hander had a 5.45 ERA in his 12 starts at home — but he enjoyed a 2.75 ERA in 10 starts on the road in the regular season. Philadelphia has won 18 of their last 28 games on the road with Suarez on the mound — and they have won 10 of their last 14 road games with Suarez pitching priced in the +/- 125 range. Suarez has been dynamite in this postseason with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP in two starts — and he has a 1.16 ERA along with a 0.86 WHIP in his seven career playoff appearances which includes five starts. He faces a slumping Diamondbacks lineup that is hitting only .226 in their last seven games with a .299 on-base percentage during that span. Arizona ranks just 12th and 15th this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks have only four base hits in each of the first two games of this series — and they have lost 25 of their last 32 games after failing to get more than five hits in two straight games. They have not scored more than four runs in four straight games — and they have lost 17 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. The Arizona bullpen gave up six runs on Tuesday — and they have lost 6 games in a row after their bullpen allowed six or more runs in their last game. They counter with Pfaadt who had a 3-9 record with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 regular season appearances. In his ten starts at home, he was saddled with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .314. In his two postseason starts this year, he has a 3.86 ERA — but he also has a 1.43 WHIP and a .321 opponent’s batting average in those two starts. He gave up 22 homers in the regular season at a 2.06 home runs per nine innings rate which is very concerning against this Phillies team bashing home runs right now.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by eight or more runs — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road by ten or more runs. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-23 |
Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer in Game Three of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (93-75) finds themselves trailing by an 0-2 deficit in the ALCS after a 5-4 loss at home to the Rangers on Monday. Texas (97-72) has won seven games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss by one run — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. After losing Game One by a 2-0 score, the Astros have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. Houston has not scored more than four runs in their last three games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight games. The Astros are only hitting .173 in their last three games — but they have then played 7 straight Overs after not hitting above .200 in their last three contests. Javier gets the start after pitching five scoreless innings at Minnesota in his last start last Tuesday in the ALDS. The right-hander’s velocity was up in that start — but he also walked five batters in that effort. Javier was solid at home this year where he had a 3.71 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 regular season starts — but those numbers rose to a 5.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 18 starts on the road. Houston has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Javier on the mound as the money-line underdog. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. Texas is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .274 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and a .843 OPS. The Rangers have played 44 of their last 68 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. They have played 37 of their last 61 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have played 36 of their last 58 home games Over the Total against fellow AL West rivals. And while Texas has not allowed more than four runs in three straight games, they have then played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They counter with Scherzer who is making his first start in 36 games after suffering a muscle strain in his right shoulder. Only three pitchers have taken the mound in the playoffs with a longer duration between starts in the history of MLB. Two of those circumstances took place this century — and those two starters have up four and three runs apiece while combining for a 5.63 ERA. Scherzer threw 68 pitches in his lone simulated game. If this was the regular season, the 39-year-old would probably throw two more simulated games to build up his strength and endurance. Even if he is effective tonight, he is not likely to pitch deep into the game. By the way, Scherzer’s strikeout rate is his lowest since 2013 while his walk rate is his highest since 2013. In his 12 career starts in a League Championship Series, 10 of those games finished Over the Total. His teams have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total this season when he is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. He faces an Astros team that ranks fourth and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they led MLB in those categories since July 1st.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total when playing with revenge for a loss by one run. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Phillies -155 |
|
0-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (972) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (971) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Merrill Kelly in Game Two of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (96-73) has now won seven of their last eight games after taking the opening game of the NLCS with a 5-3 victory. Arizona (89-79) had their five-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY LINE: Philadelphia has now won 62 of their last 91 games after a win by two runs or less. The Phillies have only allowed six combined runs in their last two games — and they have won 20 of their last 29 games after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. Nola gets the start tonight after posting a 12-9 record with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 32 regular-season starts. He was more effective at home where he posted a 3.29 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in 14 starts. Philadelphia has won 12 of their last 15 home games with Nola on the mound when priced as a -110 or higher money-line favorite. In his two starts this postseason, Nola has allowed only two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings for a 1.46 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. Arizona counters with Kelly who had a 12-8 record along with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts in the regular season. While the right-hander had a 2.59 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in 15 starts, those numbers rose to a 4.07 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in 15 starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have lost 17 of their last 25 road games with Kelly on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have won 20 of their last 27 games in October. 8* MLB Arizona-Philadelphia TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (972) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (971) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Phillies -159 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (968) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (967) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen in Game One of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (95-73) has won six of their last seven games after beating Atlanta in four games in that NLDS with a 3-1 victory on the road on Thursday. Arizona (89-78) has won five games in a row after their 4-2 victory in Los Angeles to complete their three-game sweep of the Dodgers in that NLDS on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY LINE: Philadelphia has won 61 of their last 90 games after a win by two runs or less. After dropping Game Two of the NLDS to Atlanta, they won the final two games of that series — and they have won 6 straight games after winning two games in a row against an NL East rival. The Phillies have only allowed three combined runs in their last two games — and they have won 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. Wheeler gets the start after posting a 13-6 record in the regular season with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 32 starts in the regular season. Philadelphia won 9 of their 12 home games with Wheeler on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Arizona has lost 15 of their last 18 games after an upset loss to an NL West rival. They beat the Dodgers by identical 4-2 scores in the final two games of that series — but they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row by two runs or less. They have not allowed more than two runs in their last three games — but they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in three or more games in a row. They counter with Gallen who has a 17-9 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 34 starts. He was more effective at home in the regular season with a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 16 starts — but those rose to a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 18 starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have lost 8 of their last 9 games on the road with Gallen on the mound as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have won 6 straight opening games in a new playoff series. 8* MLB Arizona-Philadelphia TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (968) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (967) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-23 |
Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Three of their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-64) looks to stave off elimination after falling behind 0-2 in this best-of-five series in a 4-2 loss at home to the Diamondbacks on Monday. Arizona (88-78) returns home on a four-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after an upset loss to an NL West rival. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. Now they go on the road where they have played 25 of their last 33 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Los Angeles has also played 21 of their last 31 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They turn to Lynn tonight who has a 13-11 record along with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 32 starts. He has been more effective since being traded over to the Dodgers from the Chicago White Sox — but he still has a 6.07 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 16 starts on the road. Lynn’s teams have played 5 straight Overs when he is pitching on the road when priced in the +/- 125 range. Arizona has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after two straight upset wins against an NL West rival priced at +130 or higher. They have also played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row. They counter with Pfaadt who has a 3-9 record along with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 appearances in the regular season. In his start in Game One of the Wildcard round against Miami, he gave up three runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .314 in ten starts as opposed to his 5.04 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in nine appearances on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks 2nd and 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 2nd in both those categories since July 1st.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when trailing in a playoff series. 8* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-23 |
Dodgers -121 v. Diamondbacks |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-121 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Three of their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-64) looks to stave off elimination after falling behind 0-2 in this best-of-five series in a 4-2 loss at home to the Diamondbacks on Monday. Arizona (88-78) returns home on a four-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have won 46 of their last 64 games after losing their last contest — and they have won 12 of their last 17 games after a loss to an NL West rival. They have also won 12 of their last 17 games after losing two games in a row. And while the Dodgers have lost four of their last six games, they have then won 16 of their last 23 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They have also won 15 of their last 23 games after an off day. They go back on the road where they have won 22 of their last 32 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They have won 45 of their last 69 games when listed as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. They turn to Lynn tonight who has a 13-11 record along with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 32 starts. While the right-hander has been inconsistent this season with some outstanding efforts tempered by several clunkers, the deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.33 and 4.50 moving forward. He has been more effective since being traded over to the Dodgers from the Chicago White Sox — he has a 3.38 ERA in his last four starts this season while averaging six innings per appearance. He faces a Diamondbacks team that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB since July in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they rank 25th and 23rd in those categories since September 1st. Arizona is only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, a .317 on-base percentage, and a .703 OPS during that span. The Diamondbacks have not given up more than two runs in three straight games — but they have lost 6 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in three straight games. They have also lost 24 of their last 39 games after a win by two runs or less. Furthermore, while Arizona has been a money-line underdog of +145 and +175 in the first two games in this series, they have then lost 16 of their last 25 games after two straight upset wins against a divisional rival priced at +130 or higher. They counter with Pfaadt who has a 3-9 record along with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 appearances in the regular season. In his start in Game One of the Wildcard round against Miami, he gave up three runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .314 in ten starts as opposed to his 5.04 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in nine appearances on the road. Arizona has lost 5 of their 7 games with Pfaadt pitching against an NL West rival. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks 2nd and 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 2nd in both those categories since July 1st.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 18 of their last 22 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games when motivated with double revenge with two straight losses to their opponent. The Dodgers had won five games in a row against Arizona before this series began. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-23 |
Orioles v. Rangers OVER 9 |
|
1-7 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:03 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (925) and the Texas Rangers (926) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Nathan Eovaldi in Game Three of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (101-63) has lost three games in a row after their 11-8 loss at home against the Rangers on Sunday. Texas (94-72) has won four straight games as they look to sweep this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored and allowed eight or more runs. They have also played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after an off day. They go back on the road where they have played 45 of their last 76 games Over the Total — including 11 of their last 15 contests away from home. They have also played 31 of their last 51 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They send out Kremer who had a 13-5 record in 32 starts in the regular season with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and 4.34 moving forward. While he had a 1.26 WHIP and a .240 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 1.39 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 13 starts. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Kremer on the mound pitching as a money-line underdog. And while he pitched 5 1/3 scoreless innings in his last outing against Boston on September 28th, the Orioles have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Kremer following an effort where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they are third in the league in those categories since the beginning of September. Texas has played 47 of their last 77 home games Over the Total including four of their last five in front of their home fans. They have also played 37 of their last 60 games at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Additionally, they have played 39 of their last 61 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. They counter with Eovaldi who had a 12-5 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 25 starts. The deeper sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.96 moving forward. The right-hander did look good against Tampa Bay last week in the Wildcard Playoffs by holding the Rays to just one run in 6 2/3 innings — but his teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when Eovaldi is following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned. His teams have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Eovaldi on the mound with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: While the Orioles rank 13th and 12th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitching — and they have risen to seventh in both those categories since the beginning of September. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (925) and the Texas Rangers (926) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-23 |
Orioles v. Rangers -133 |
Top |
1-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:03 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dean Kremer in Game Three of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (94-72) has won four straight games after their 11-8 victory on the road against the Orioles on Sunday. Baltimore (101-63) has lost three games in a row as they look to stave off elimination tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas should build off their momentum as they have won 57 of their 93 games after a victory this season including winning 8 of their last 11 games after a win. They have also won 24 of their last 33 games after scoring nine or more runs in their last game. And in their last 17 games after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored, they have won 12 of those contests. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 8 contests. Eovaldi gets the start after putting up a 12-5 record in 25 regular season starts along with a 3.63 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He was more effective at home where he had a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. His teams have won 23 of their last 34 games when he is pitching at home priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Baltimore has lost 50 of their last 73 games after losing three or more games in a row. They have also lost 15 of their last 22 games after a game where both teams scored and allowed eight or more runs. And in their last 34 games when 17 or more combined runs were scored, the Orioles have lost 25 of those games. They have also lost 9 of their last 11 games in October. They counter with Kremer who had a 13-5 record in 32 starts in the regular season with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and 4.34 moving forward. While he had a 1.26 WHIP and a .240 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 1.39 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 13 starts. Baltimore has lost 8 of their last 13 road games with Kremer on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers rank second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they are third in the league in those categories since the beginning of September. 25* MLB Divisional Series Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dean Kremer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-149 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen in Game Two in their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-63) has lost two of their last three games after their 11-2 loss to the Diamondbacks in the opening game of their best-of-five series. Arizona (87-78) has won three games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has rebounded to win 46 of their last 63 games after losing their last game — and they have won 25 of their last 30 games after a loss by four or more runs. They have also won 17 of their last 20 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 48 of their last 59 home games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Miller gets the start tonight with his 11-4 record along with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 22 regular season starts. The Dodgers have won 10 of their last 15 games with Miller on the mound. Arizona has lost 15 of their last 17 games on the road after an upset loss to an NL West rival. And while the Diamondbacks have not allowed more than three runs in their last three games, they have then lost 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They counter with Gallen who has a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 34 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 — but in his 18 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245. In his last seven starts in the regular season, the right-hander had a 4.93 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 18 of their last 21 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss to their opponent. 8* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen in Game Two in their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Arizona (87-78) has won three games after taking the opening game of this best-of-five series with their 11-2 victory on Saturday. Los Angeles (100-63) has lost two of their last three games to fall behind 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 37 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a fellow NL West rival priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 34 of their last 51 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers scratched out only four base hits yesterday — but they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not getting more than four hits in their last game. They are only hitting .197 in their last three games — but they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not hitting higher than .200 in their last three contests. Miller gets the start tonight with his 11-4 record along with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts. The rookie sees his ERA rise to a 4.55 mark in his 10 starts at home as opposed to his 3.09 ERA in 12 starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Dodgers have also played 41 of their last 66 games Over the Total when priced as the money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Arizona has played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after an off day. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when on the road. The Diamondbacks have scored 22 combined runs in their last three games while plating at least five runs in each of those contests. They counter with Gallen who has a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 34 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 — but in his 18 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245. In his last seven starts in the regular season, the right-hander had a 4.93 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Arizona has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with Gallen on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175 range. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the playoff series. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -180 |
|
11-2 |
Loss |
-180 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-62) closed out the regular season winning four of their last six games after a 5-2 win at San Francisco last Sunday. Arizona (86-78) completed their two-game sweep of the Brewers with a 5-2 win in Milwaukee on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONEY-LINE WITH THE DODGERS: Los Angeles has won 7 of their last 10 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. The Dodgers have held their last three opponents to two runs apiece in each of those games — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in two or more games in a row — and they have won 38 of their last 46 home games after not allowing more than two runs in two or more games in a row. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 35 of their last 50 home games when priced at -150 or higher. Kershaw gets the ball for Game One after registering a 13-5 record in the regular sedans with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 24 starts. The left-hander has been outstanding at home this season where he enjoys a 1.58 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .180 in ten starts. The Dodgers have won 8 of his 10 starts at home this season — and they have won 24 of their last 33 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He should have great success against this Diamondbacks team that ranks just 25th and 26th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they fall to 27th in both those categories since the beginning of September. Arizona has lost 5 straight games after holding their last opponent to two runs or less. And while they are only hitting .197 in their last five games, they have then lost 8 of their last 12 games after not hitting better than .200 in their last five contests. Kelly gets the nod tonight after sporting a 12-8 record in the regular season with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.12 and 3.84 moving forward. And in his 15 starts on the road, the right-hander has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of their last 18 road games with Kelly on the hill listed as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost their last five games against Los Angeles this season — and they have lost 20 of their last 31 games when attempting to snap a five-game losing streak to their opponent. 8* MLB Arizona-LA Dodgers TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-23 |
Blue Jays v. Twins -125 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jose Berrios in Game Two in this American League Wildcard series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (88-75) took the opening game of this best-of-three series with a 3-1 victory on Tuesday. Toronto (89-74) has lost five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota is a better team than their record suggests. They outscored their opponents in the regular season by +119 runs — a +0.7 net run differential — which typically translates into 93 wins on a 162-game schedule. They had a 19-27 record in games decided by one run which suggests where they had some bad breaks. But they have now won 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 4 straight games after not scoring more than three runs in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. The Twins have now won 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have won 45 of their last 68 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Gray gets the ball this afternoon with his 8-8 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 32 starts. In his last seven starts this season, the right-hander has a 1.54 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP. In his four career starts in the postseason, Gray has a 2.95 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Minnesota has won 21 of their last 33 home games with Gray on the hill when priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that has lost 14 of their last 30 games against American League teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.40 or lower. Toronto has now lost 14 of their last 22 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Berrios who has a 11-12 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 4.01 moving forward. Perhaps the Regression Gods have already made their presence felt for the veteran right-hander since he has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts — and he has allowed four or more runs in five of his last nine starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 15 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.97 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in his 17 starts on the road. Berrios’ teams have lost 21 of their last 29 games when he is on the mound against a team that outscores their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. He faces a Minnesota team that ranks third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank third and second in those respective metrics since July 1st.
FINAL TAKE: The Twins got a monkey off their backs yesterday by snapping their 18-game losing streak in the postseason. Now they are one win away from advancing to the American League Divisional Series — and they are playing a Blue Jays team with their own shaken psyche issues as they have now lost 5 of their last 6 games in the Wildcard round of the American League playoffs. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-23 |
Rangers v. Rays -141 |
|
7-1 |
Loss |
-141 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (952) versus the Texas Rangers (951) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Nathan Eovaldi in Game Two of their American League Wildcard series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (99-64) looks to bounce back from their 4-0 shutout loss at home to the Rangers. Texas (91-72) has won two of their last three games and now has the opportunity to close out this best-of-three series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay is usually a fundamentally sound team — but they committed four costly errors yesterday afternoon (the exact number they committed in their 13-0 start to the season, by the way). They have won 6 of their last 7 games after committing three or more errors in their last game. Additionally, the Rays have won 40 of their 63 games this season after a loss — and they have won 17 of their last 23 games after a loss by four or more runs. They have still won 50 of their last 75 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 — and they have won 30 of their last 45 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Eflin gets the start this afternoon with his 16-8 record along with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 31 starts. In his last eight starts, he has a 2.98 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP with 55 strikeouts in 45 1/3 innings of work. His ERA drops to a 3.30 mark in 18 starts at home — and Tampa Bay has won 33 of their last 44 games at home with Eflin on the hill with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also won 12 of their last 15 games with Eflin on the mound priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. He faces a Rangers team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .186 batting average, a .285 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .588 during that span. Texas’ bullpen did not allow an earned run yesterday — but they have lost 20 of their last 33 games on the road after a game when their bullpen did not allow an earned run. And while the Rangers have played six straight Unders, they have then lost 6 of their last 8 games after playing five or more Unders in a row. They have also lost 13 of their last 21 games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175. Eovaldi gets the ball this afternoon with his 12-5 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 25 starts. The right-hander has not been the same pitcher since coming back from a forearm injury with his throwing hand. In his six starts last month after his return from the injured list, he was saddled with a 9.30 ERA along with a 1.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .313. His teams have also lost 33 of their last 55 road games with him on the mound pitching as a money-line underdog up to a +150 price. He faces a Rays that were swinging hot bats before yesterday — and they are still scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .304 batting average, a .349 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .814 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have lost 8 of their last 12 games when attempting to close out a playoff series. The Rays have won 16 of their last 24 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. Texas has won the last four games against them after their three-game series sweep the last time they played in mid-July — and Tampa Bay has won 11 of their last 14 games when playing with quadruple revenge. 10* MLB Texas-Tampa Bay ABC-TV Special with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (952) versus the Texas Rangers (951) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-23 |
Marlins v. Phillies -142 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (946) versus the Miami Marlins (945) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (90-72) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 9-1 victory at New York against the Mets on Sunday. Miami (84-77) had their three-game winning streak end in a 3-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The defending National League champions have plenty of postseason experience — and they have won 15 of their last 23 games in October. They have won 4 straight openers in a new playoff series. They have also won 18 of their last 28 games after losing three of their last four contests. As the top wildcard team in the National League, they earned the right to host his best-of-three series — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, Philadelphia has won 28 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. The money-line price on the Phillies has dropped below my -150 price threshold to endorse them tonight — and they have won 21 of their last 32 home games when priced up to -150. Wheeler gets the ball tonight with a 13-6 record this season along with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 32 starts. In his six career starts in the postseason, the veteran right-hander has a 2.78 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. Philadelphia has won 11 of their last 14 home games with Wheeler their starting pitcher with the Total set from 7-7.5. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 24th in both those categories since July. Miami has lost 8 of their last 12 games after getting shut out in their last game — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than three combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Marlins have lost 44 of their last 65 games after an off day. They counter with Luzardo who has a 10-9 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 31 starts. The left-hander has pitched only three innings in the postseason in his career. He did his best work at home this year where he had a 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .216 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 4.48 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in 12 starts on the road. Miami has lost 15 of their last 21 road games with Luzardo on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces this Phillies lineup that ranks 5th and 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they have risen to 2nd and 3rd in the league since July in those categories.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will motivated to avenge a 5-4 loss at home to the Marlins as a -160 money-line favorite on September 10th — and they have won 16 of their last 25 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 25* MLB NL East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (946) versus the Miami Marlins (945) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Brewers -163 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-163 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (950) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (949) listing both starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Pfaadt in Game One of their National League Wildcard series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (92-70) has won four of their last five games after their 4-0 win at home against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. Arizona (84-78) has lost four games in a row after an 8-1 loss to Houston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 11 of their last 15 games after a shutout victory in their last game — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after a shutout win against an NL Central rival. By winning the division, they earned the right to host this best-of-three series where they have won 36 of their last 54 home games when priced as a money-line favorite priced from -175 to -250. Burnes gets the start with his 10-8 record along with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 32 starts. The Brewers have won 22 of their last 32 home games with Burnes on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Arizona has only scored three runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than four runs in five straight games. The Diamondbacks have lost 17 of their last 19 games after failing to score more than two runs in four straight games. They have lost five of their last seven games — and they have lost 19 of their last 29 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. They counter with Pfaadt who has a 3-9 record with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 games (18 starts). The right-hander has pitched better in the second half of the season — but the deeper sabermetrics do not indicate he is more than an average pitcher right now. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.28 and 4.46 moving forward. Pfaadt has a 6.10 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP in ten starts at night — and Arizona has lost 7 of their last 10 games when he is on the mound in a night contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks are hitting only .149 in their last five games with only 22 base hits in their last 148 at-bats — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games after a five-game stretch where they did not hit better than .150. 8* MLB Arizona-Milwaukee ESPN2 Special with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (950) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (949) listing both starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-23 |
Rangers v. Rays -143 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-143 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 3:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (944) versus the Texas Rangers (943) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Jordan Montgomery. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (99-63) closed out the regular season by winning four of their last five games after a 12-8 win at Toronto on Sunday. Texas (90-72) lost three of their last four games after a 1-0 loss at Seattle on Sunday which cost them the AL West crown.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Rays are swinging hot bats heading into the postseason as they are scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .320 batting average, a .367 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .878 during that span. Tampa Bay has won 17 of their last 2 games after scoring nine or more runs in their last game. They scored seven runs on Saturday — and they have won 12 of their last 15 games after scoring seven or more runs in two straight games. They host this best-of-three series at Tropicana Field where they have won 16 of their last 24 games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. And in their last 24 home games after winning three of their last four games, they have won 19 of these contests. Glasnow gets the start with his 10-7 record along with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 21 starts this season. The Rays have won 10 of their last 15 home games with Glasnow on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Texas is slumping at just the wrong time as they are scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .189 batting average, a .288 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .63 during that span. The Rangers are hitting only .158 in their last three games — and they have lost 29 of their last 42 games after not hitting better than .175 in their last three games including losing four of those last five situations. They have also lost 13 of their last 20 games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175. They counter with Montgomery who has a 10-11 record with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts between St. Louis and then Texas this year. The left-hander has only pitched 2 2/3 innings in the postseason in his career. Montgomery’s teams have lost 11 of their last 12 games when he is on the mound after a loss in their last game. His teams have also lost 12 of their last 15 games when he is starting on the road. He faces a Rays team that has won 25 of their last 36 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Texas swept a three-game series between these teams the last time they played in mid-July. Tampa Bay has won 22 of their last 30 games when playing with double revenge — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games when motivated by triple revenge against their opponent. 10* MLB Texas-Tampa Bay ABC-TV Special with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (944) versus the Texas Rangers (943) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Jordan Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-23 |
Rangers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 |
Top |
0-8 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. THE SITUATION: Texas (89-70) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Mariners. Seattle (86-73) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The stakes remain urgent for both teams — the Rangers are two games ahead of Houston for first place in the AL West while the Mariners are one game behind those Astros for the final American League wildcard spot. There are still scenarios where both teams could find themselves on the outside looking in after the regular season concludes this weekend. Texas managed only three base hits last night — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where they did not have more than four hits. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two games in a row. On the road, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total. Eovaldi gets the ball with his 12-4 record along with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.95 moving forward. He is struggling this month in his five starts with a 7.41 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .309. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs after a game that finished Under the Total — and the Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games after scoring no more than three runs in their last game. The Mariners have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while Seattle has not scored more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 31 of their last 48 games Over the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Woo who has a 4-5 record along with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 starts. In his four starts this month, the rookie right-hander has a 5.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He faces a Rangers offense that ranks 10th and 8th this season in weighted On-Base Created and weighted Runs Created this season — and they rank 8th and 6th in those metrics since August 1st and 5th and 4th in those categories this month. Despite scoring at least five runs in six of their last nine games, Texas is hitting only .218 in their last five games — but they have played 16 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not hitting better than .225 in their last five contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total in September — and the Mariners have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total this month. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-23 |
Padres v. Giants -104 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the San Diego Padres (911) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Matt Waldron. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (78-80) got eliminated from the National League wildcard race last night with their 4-0 loss at home to the Padres. San Diego (78-80) remains barely alive in the NL postseason hunt with ten wins in their last 12 games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: These two teams have the same record — but the Giants would lose the tie-breaker with the Chicago Cubs so they were eliminated with their loss last night. The Padres are 4 1/2 games behind the Cubs for the final wildcard spot with four games left to play — so they are barely hanging on and would need plenty of help with both Cincinnati and Miami still ahead of them chasing Chicago. San Francisco has lost three of their last four games — but they have the opportunity to screw their rivals tonight which offers them some consolation. They have not scored more than two runs in four straight games — but they have then won 26 of their last 35 games after failing to score more than two runs in four or more games in a row. The Giants have also won 9 of their last 12 games at home. Manaea gets the start with his 7-6 record with a 4.51 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 36 appearances including nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for better numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 4.12 moving forward. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.51 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 51 1/3 innings as opposed to his 5.37 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in 60 1/3 innings on the road. San Diego has lost 28 of their last 45 games after a victory by four or more runs. They have not allowed more than two runs in three straight games — but they have lost 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than three runs in three straight games. The Padres have also lost 24 of their last 36 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Waldron who has a 1-3 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in seven games including five starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a .235 opponent’s batting average in 25 innings — but those numbers rise to a 5.23 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in 10 1/3 innings on the road.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has lost 36 of their last 55 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range — and San Francisco has won 24 of their last 37 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the San Diego Padres (911) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Matt Waldron. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-23 |
Astros v. Mariners -113 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (976) versus the Houston Astros (975) listing both starting pitchers George Kirby and Cristian Javier. THE SITUATION: Seattle (84-72) has lost four games in a row after their 5-1 loss at home to the Astros. Houston (86-71) snapped a three-game losing streak with their victory last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle has won 7 straight games after an upset loss to an AL West rival — and they have won 16 of their last 19 games after an upset loss at home to a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Mariners have won 5 of their last 7 games after losing three or more in a row against divisional rivals — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games after losing four or more games in a row. They have still won 50 of their last 82 games at home when priced in the -100 to -150 range. Kirby gets the start with his 11-10 record along with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 29 starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he owns a 3.10 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.98 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in 16 starts on the road. Seattle has won 7 of their last 8 home games with Kirby on the mound priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Houston has lost 4 straight games after winning their previous game. They have also lost 5 of their last 8 games after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Javier who has a 9-4 record along with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest things could be even worse with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.75 and 5.17 moving forward. The right-hander has been solid still at home where he owns a 3.71 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in 13 starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.40 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in his 16 starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners rank sixth and fourth since August 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (976) versus the Houston Astros (975) listing both starting pitchers George Kirby and Cristian Javier. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-23 |
Cubs v. Braves -135 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Justin Steele. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (100-56) has won three of their last four games after their 8-5 victory at Washington on Sunday. Chicago (82-74) is on a three-game winning streak after a 4-3 win at home against Colorado on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has nothing to play for this week having clinched the top seed in the National League playoffs — but they should be motivated to bring their A-Game against a Cubs team that has beaten them twice in a row. We need to be careful this week about starting lineups with it being the final week of the regular season — and Ronald Acuna and company are confirmed to be on the lineup card tonight. The Braves have won 69 of their last 111 games after winning their last contest. They have also won 23 of their last 35 games at home with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Elder gets the ball tonight with his 12-4 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander has allowed four earned runs in two straight starts — so he will want to right his ship tonight with his next start likely to be in the postseason. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.26 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 16 starts as opposed to his 4.05 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s average of .256 in 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 12 of their 16 home games this season with Elder on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that ranks 21st in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs on the road against right-handed pitchers. Cody Bellinger has carried them this summer — but he is currently mired in a 5 of 32 slump with a .156 batting average in his last nine games. Chicago currently is tied with Arizona for the second and third spots in the NL wildcard race — but the pressure remains on them being only one game ahead of Miami who is still very much in contention. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring four runs or less in their last game. They have also lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have also lost 10 of their last 13 games on the road against NL East rivals. They counter with Steele who has a 16-5 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.63 and 3.35 moving forward. Perhaps the pressure of reaching the postseason or NL Cy Young Award possibilities have gotten into the left-hander’s head as he has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts for a 12.00 ERA along with a 1.89 WHIP. He faces a Braves team that has won 22 of their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta ranks fourth and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. The Braves lead MLB in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage — and they should be motivated to maintain their pace to break an MLB record for home runs in a single season.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta got upset in two straight games as the road favorite at Wrigley Field in the last two meetings between these teams on August 5th and 6th — but the Braves have won 10 of their last 13 opportunities for double-revenge from upset losses as a road favorite. 25* MLB Tuesday TBS-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Justin Steele. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-23 |
Mets v. Phillies -153 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (958) versus the New York Mets (957) listing both starting pitchers Taijaun Walker and Tylor Megill. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (84-69) has won two games in a row — and five of their last seven — after their 5-4 win at home against the Mets in the opening game of this series. New York (71-82) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won a decisive 57 of their last 75 games after a win by two runs or less. They have also won 21 of their last 33 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Walker takes the mound with his 15-5 record along with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 29 starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.59 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in 15 starts as opposed to his 5.26 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in 14 starts on the road. The Phillies have won 18 of their last 21 home games with Walker on the hill with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. New York has lost 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a loss by two runs or less. They have also lost 29 of their last 39 road games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Megill who has an 8-8 record along with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in 23 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.25 and 5.06 moving forward. And while he has a 3.41 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in 12 starts as compared to his 7.09 ERA, a 2.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .332 in his 11 starts on the road. The Mets have lost 4 straight road games with Megill their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog up to +150.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies rank third and fourth in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (958) versus the New York Mets (957) listing both starting pitchers Taijaun Walker and Tylor Megill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-23 |
Blue Jays v. Rays -147 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-147 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (965) assisting both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Chris Bassitt. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (94-60) has won two of their last three games after their 5-4 win against the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Toronto (85-68) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 5-3 loss in New York against the Yankees on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 16 of their last 21 games after a win by just one run. And while the Rays have stranded a whopping 11 runners in two straight games, they have then won 6 of their last 7 games after stranding 10 or more runners in two straight games. Tampa Bay has won 49 of their last 71 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 22 of their last 34 home games when priced in the -125 to -175 range. Additionally, the Rays have won 41 of their last 61 games at home against AL East rivals. Glasnow gets the ball tonight with his 9-6 record along with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 19 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.10 and 2.82 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.81 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .164 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in ten starts on the road. Tampa Bay has won 10 of their last 14 home games with Glasnow on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a slumping Blue Jays lineup that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .192 batting average, a .263 on-base percentage, and an opponent’s batting average of .598 during that span. Toronto has lost 3 of their last 4 games after a loss. They are fighting for an AL wild-card spot because they struggle against the best teams in the league. They have lost 11 of their last 18 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 54% to 62% of their games. The Rays are outscoring their opponents by +1.3 net Runs-Per-Game — and the Blue Jays have lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +1.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has a slugging percentage of .442 as well — and Toronto has lost 14 of their last 20 games against American League teams with a slugging percentage of .440 or higher. Furthermore, in their 43 games against the rugged AL East, the Blue Jays have lost 26 of these games. Toronto has also lost 7 of their last 11 road games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175. They counter with Bassitt who has a 14-8 record along with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 31 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.44 moving forward. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he owns a 3.08 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .144 in 16 starts — but in his 15 starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 4.64 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281.
FINAL TAKE: The Rays rank 10th and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (965) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Chris Bassitt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-23 |
Pirates v. Cubs -167 |
|
13-7 |
Loss |
-167 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (960) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Chicago (79-72) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 14-1 victory against the Pirates last night. Pittsburgh (70-81) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games after a win by eight or more runs against an NL Central rival. They have also won 10 of their last 15 games after a game where they scored 15 or more combined runs in their last game. They stay at home at Wrigley Field where they have won 12 of their last 17 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Steele gets the ball with his 16-4 record along with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 28 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.18 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in 17 starts as compared to his 3.55 ERA and a .244 opponent’s batting average in 11 starts on the road. The Cubs have won 10 of their last 13 home games with Steele on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Pirates team that ranks 27th in MLB since May in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. Pittsburgh has not scored more than three runs in three straight games — and they have lost 12 of their last 17 games after failing to score four or more runs in three straight games. And while the Pirates' bullpen gave up 12 of the runs last night, they have then lost 12 of their last 18 games after their bullpen allowed four or more runs in their last game. They have also lost 29 of their last 45 road games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. They counter with Keller who has a 12-9 record along with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander has been effective at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in 14 starts — but in his 16 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 5.15 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275. The Pirates have lost 14 of their last 21 games on the road with Keller on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He faces a Cubs team that ranks third and fourth in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have lost three straight games against the Cubs with Chicago scoring at least 10 runs in all three games — and Pittsburgh has lost 10 of their last 15 games when playing with at least double-revenge against their opponent who scored eight or more runs in both of those losses. 8* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (960) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Mitch Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-23 |
Phillies v. Braves -132 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-132 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (952) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (951) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (97-54) snapped out of their four-game losing streak last night with a 9-3 victory at home against the Phillies. Philadelphia (82-69) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Getting Ronald Acuna back in the lineup last night jumpstarted the Atlanta attack as they had 13 base hits while scoring those nine runs — and Acuna went three-for-five with two home runs and a stolen base. Acuna is set to lead off this afternoon's game. The Braves have won 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six or more runs — and they have won 17 of their last 22 games after scoring nine or more runs in their last contest. The Braves have also won 29 of their last 38 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They finished this series at home where they have won 23 of their last 34 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Pitching has been a problem for the Braves — so getting Spencer Strider in his turn in their starting rotation helped. Now Elder gets his next start to build on his 12-4 record along with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 29 starts. In his last six starts, the right-hander has a 2.97 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings with 29 strikeouts and only 12 walks. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in 15 starts as opposed to his 4.05 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in his 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 19 home games with Elder on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a slumping Phillies lineup that is hitting only .239 in their last seven games with a .301 on-base percentage and an OPS of .738 during that span. Philadelphia plays their sixth straight game on the road — and they have lost 23 of their last 37 games after playing four or more games on the road. The Phillies bullpen gave up six runs last night — and they have then lost 7 of their last 11 games after a game where their bullpen allowed five or more runs. They have also lost 8 of their last 13 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. And in their last 16 games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175, they have lost 10 of those contests. They counter with Nola who has a 12-9 record along with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 30 starts. The veteran right-hander is slumping this month with an 8.56 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .315 in his last three starts. And while he enjoys a 3.44 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in 13 starts, those numbers rise to a 5.58 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in his 17 starts on the road. Philly has lost 13 of their last 20 games on the road with Nola on the mound priced as a money-line underdog. The Braves lead MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they also lead MLB in those categories since July 1st.
FINAL: TAKE: The Phillies have lost 19 of their last 31 games including five of their last eight when playing with revenge from a loss to an NL West rival on the road by six or more runs. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (952) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (951) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-23 |
Phillies v. Braves -1.5 |
Top |
3-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing Spencer Strider and Cristopher Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (96-54) looks to end a four-game losing streak after their 7-1 loss at home to the Phillies in the opening game of this series. Philadelphia (82-68) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has lost a bit of their edge as they prepare for their postseason run in a few weeks — but tonight is probably the night they decide enough is enough. They only managed four base hits last night against the Phillies Zack Wheeler — but they have then won 9 of their last 11 games after not getting more than four hits in their last contest. The Braves have won 28 of their last 37 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have lost five of their last seven contests, they have then won 10 games in a row after losing five or six of their last seven games. Atlanta has still won 25 of their last 35 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite in the -175 to -250 range. Their ace Strider gets the ball tonight with his 17-5 record along with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicates his ERA should lower with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.82 and 2.83 moving forward. He struggled in two starts while dealing with an illness — but he rebounded in his most recent start by allowing only one earned run and four hits in seven innings at Philadelphia last Wednesday. He has been more effective at home where he has a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 14 starts as opposed to his 1.14 WHIP and .208 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 11 of his 14 home starts this season. Philadelphia banged out five home runs last night — but they have lost 5 of their last 8 games after hitting four or more homers in their last game. The Phillies play their fifth straight game on the road — and they have lost 22 of their last 36 games after playing four or more games on the road. They have lost 5 straight games as an underdog priced at +150 or higher — and they have lost 19 of their last 30 games on the road as an underdog priced at +150. Sanchez gets the start for Philadelphia with his 2-4 record along with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 16 starts. He makes just his fifth start of the season on the road after giving up four runs in 7 1/3 innings at home against the Braves last Wednesday. In his last seven starts since the beginning of August, Sanchez has a 4.28 ERA. The Phillies have lost 4 of their 5 games this season with Sanchez pitching against an NL East rival. The Braves crush left-handed pitching — they are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against lefties with a .288 batting average, a .348 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .855. Atlanta leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitching.
FINAL: TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 74 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 50 times with 14 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 52 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 37 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. Philadelphia has only been a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher 10 times this season — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 7 times with two upset wins and only one loss by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Tuesday TBS-TV Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing Spencer Strider and Cristopher Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-23 |
Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 |
|
7-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Yusei Kikuchi and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Toronto (83-67) has won three games in a row after their 3-2 victory against Boston on Sunday. New York (76-74) was on a three-game winning streak before a 3-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Toronto has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a day off. Additionally, the Blue Jays have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in their last game. Furthermore, Toronto has played 38 of their last 54 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Kikuchi gets the call tonight with his 9-6 record along with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate those numbers should continue with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.94 and 3.87 moving forward. The left-hander’s ERA drops to 3.74 in his 15 starts on the road as opposed to his 3.87 ERA in 15 starts at home. The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Kikuchi as their starting pitcher. New York has played 41 of their last 71 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in their last game. The Yankees have also played 41 of their last 72 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Schmidt who has a 9-8 record with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 30 games (29 starts). The sabermetrics call for better numbers ahead with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 4.25 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.94 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in 16 games (15 starts) as opposed to his 5.27 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in 14 starts on the road. The Yankees have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with Schmidt on the hill with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Schmidt faces a Blue Jays team hitting only .171 in their last five games — and Toronto has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not hitting higher than .200 in their last five contests. 8* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Yusei Kikuchi and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-23 |
Cubs -123 v. Diamondbacks |
|
4-6 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Greene and David Peterson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (76-72) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 8-2 loss at Detroit on Thursday. New York (68-78) has won three games in a row after their 11-1 win against Arizona yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have palled 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. They have also played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a loss by six or more runs. Their relievers were responsible for allowing seven of those runs — but they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed five or more runs. Greene gets the ball with his 4-6 record along with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 18 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 4.15 moving forward. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.57 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 11 starts as opposed to his 5.94 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in seven starts at home. New York has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after scoring eight or more runs in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring nine or more runs in their last contest. the Mets stay at home where they have played 44 of their last 70 games Under the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 50 games at home Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. They counter with Peterson who has a 3-8 record with a 5.34 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 24 games with 18 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 3.76 moving forward. He has thrived at home where he owns a 3.18 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in 45 1/3 innings as compared to his 7.35 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .327 in 49 innings on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams winning 51% to 54% of their games. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Greene and David Peterson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-23 |
Phillies v. Cardinals +1.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Thompson and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (65-81) has won two games in a row after their 1-0 win at Baltimore on Wednesday. Philadelphia (79-67) has lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Atlanta on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cardinals are out of the playoff hunt but they are playing good baseball with four victories in their last six games and seven wins in their last ten games. They have won 44 of their last 67 games in September. Thompson gets the ball with a 5-5 record along with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 22 games which includes six starts. The left-hander has been quite effective since late July — in his last 37 innings, he has a 3.41 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP with 40 strikeouts. Those recent numbers come close to matching his season-long sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.61 moving forward. He has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.53 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in 20 2/3 innings — but in his 30 1/3 innings at home, he owns a 2.37 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252. He faces a slumping Phillies team that is hitting only .225 in their last seven games with a .315 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .726. Philadelphia has a .324 on-base percentage this season — and the Cardinals have won 5 of their last 7 games with Thompson their starting pitcher facing a National League team with an on-base percentage of .325 or lower. The Phillies have lost four of their last five games — and they have lost 19 of their last 32 games after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road after playing seven straight games at home — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games after playing six or more games in a row. They counter with Nola who has a 12-9 record along with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 29 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.44 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 — but in his 16 starts on the road, he has a 5.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259. He has been rocked in his two starts this month as he owns an 11.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in those nine innings. The Phillies have lost 25 of their last 40 games in September with Nola on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: The above team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are grabbing for this situation. The Cardinals have covered +1.5 Run-Line in 38 of their last 58 games as a money-line underdog with 27 upset wins and 11 losses by one run. Philadelphia has failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 17 of their last 26 games when priced as a money-line favorite above -110 to -150 with 12 upset losses and five one-run losses. 25* MLB National League Run-Line Underdog of the Month with St. Louis Cardinals (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Thompson and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-23 |
Reds v. Mets UNDER 8 |
|
5-3 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Greene and David Peterson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (76-72) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 8-2 loss at Detroit on Thursday. New York (68-78) has won three games in a row after their 11-1 win against Arizona yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have palled 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. They have also played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a loss by six or more runs. Their relievers were responsible for allowing seven of those runs — but they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed five or more runs. Greene gets the ball with his 4-6 record along with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 18 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 4.15 moving forward. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.57 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 11 starts as opposed to his 5.94 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in seven starts at home. New York has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after scoring eight or more runs in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring nine or more runs in their last contest. the Mets stay at home where they have played 44 of their last 70 games Under the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 50 games at home Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. They counter with Peterson who has a 3-8 record with a 5.34 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 24 games with 18 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 3.76 moving forward. He has thrived at home where he owns a 3.18 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in 45 1/3 innings as compared to his 7.35 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .327 in 49 innings on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams winning 51% to 54% of their games. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Greene and David Peterson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-23 |
Cardinals v. Orioles OVER 9 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 6:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (927) and the Baltimore Orioles (928) listing both starting pitchers Drew Rom and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (64-81) has won three of their last five games after their 5-2 victory on the road against the Orioles in the second game of this series. Baltimore (91-53) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. St. Louis has also played 9 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. Rom gets his fifth career start after posting a 0-2 record with a 7.79 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP in his first four starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he is earning those ugly numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 6.80 and 6.22 moving forward. In his three starts on the road, Rom is saddled with an 8.53 ERA with a 2.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .357. He faces an Orioles team that crushes left-handed pitching. Baltimore ranks seventh and eighth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitchers — and they rank second in those categories this month. The Orioles have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in their last game. They have still played 4 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 30 of their last 51 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They counter with Gibson who has a 14-8 record with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 29 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.69 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in 12 starts as compared to his 4.74 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in 17 starts on the road. Baltimore has played 20 of their last 24 games Over the Total at home in September with Gibson on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis ranks fifth and eighth in MLB this season on the road against right-handed pitching in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created — and they rank sixth in those categories since May 1st. 8* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (927) and the Baltimore Orioles (928) listing both starting pitchers Drew Rom and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-23 |
Guardians v. Giants UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (69-77) has snapped a three-game losing streak after their 3-1 victory on the road against the Giants in the second game of this series. San Francisco (74-71) was on a four-game winning streak before that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They managed only four base hits in the victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they had less than five base hits. Cleveland has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing four straight games where they did not score more than four runs. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. Allen gets the ball with his 7-7 record along with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander remains steady in the second half of the season with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in his last seven starts since the beginning of August. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.36 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in 11 starts at home. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Allen their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. Allen has thrived in day games as well with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as compared to his 4.18 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in 15 starts at night. He faces a Giants team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .240 batting average, a .300 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .682. San Francisco ranks 27th and 23rd in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 29th and 28th in the league in those categories since July 1st. The Giants have played 23 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They are only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 home games Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They counter with Harrison who has a 1-1 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in his first four starts at the MLB level. The rookie has not allowed more than three earned runs in three of his four starts — he gave up six runs in San Diego in the outlier. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.66 and 3.93 moving forward. In his two starts at home, Harrison has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190. He faces a slumping Guardians team that is scoring 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616 during that span. Against left-handed pitching, Cleveland is scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .242 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .677. The Guardians rank 26th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they remain 25th and 26th in MLB since August 1st in those categories.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-23 |
Padres v. Dodgers -148 |
|
2-11 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) versus the San Diego Padres (961) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (87-56) has lost two of their last three games after their 11-8 loss at home to the Padres last night. San Diego (68-77) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 9 of their last 12 games after losing their last game — and they have won 15 of their last 18 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers have also won 15 of their last 20 games at home — and they have won 26 of their last 35 home games when priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. Lynn gets the ball with his 10-11 record along with a 6.09 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP of 4.20 and 4.32 moving forward. His good peripheral numbers are why the Dodgers traded for him from the Chicago White Sox — and he had posted a 3.57 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in his first six starts with Los Angeles last month before giving up seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start at Miami. Lynn’s teams have won 20 of their last 30 home games when he is on the mound priced as the money-line favorite. San Diego has lost 8 of their last 10 games after winning their last game. The Padres have also lost 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have lost 19 of their last 27 road games as an underdog. They counter with Wacha who has an 11-3 record along with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 20 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.53 and 4.60 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.55 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in his 12 starts at home, those numbers rise to a 3.65 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in his eight starts on the road. The Padres have lost 14 of their last 20 road games with Wacha on the mound as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks fifth and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank fifth and third in those categories since July 1st.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 15 of their last 18 games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent as a home favorite. 8* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) versus the San Diego Padres (961) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-23 |
Rays v. Twins -117 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) with the money-line versus the Tampa Bay Rays (967) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Zack Littell. Minnesota (75-59) has lost two straight games after their 7-4 loss at home to the Rays in the opening game of this series last night. Tampa Bay (89-56) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota had won four of their previous five games before this recent losing streak. They have won 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. The Twins have won 28 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also won 43 of their last 65 home games when proved as a money-line favorite up to -150. Ryan gets the ball with his 10-9 record along with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 25 starts. The deeper sabermetics suggest he should be seeing even better numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.47 and 3.83 moving forward. The right-hander missed three weeks last month with a groin injury — and he has been quite good since returning. In those three starts since his return from the shelf, he has a 2.40 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He made some adjustments since his return by relying on his slider and splitfinger more while seeing more movement on his splitter. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.77 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in 12 starts as opposed to his 4.67 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .256 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. Minnesota has won 17 of their last 28 home games with Ryan on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Tampa Bay has lost 17 of their last 25 road games after winning four of their last five games. The Rays have not committed a turnover in their last two games — and they have lost 18 of their last 28 games after not committing an error in two or more games in a row. They have also lost 14 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. They counter with Littell who has a 3-5 record with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 24 games which includes 11 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .269 batting average in 36 1/3 innings — but those numbers rise to a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 35 innings on the road. Tampa Bay has lost 5 of their last 7 games when Littell is their starting pitcher at night.
FINAL TAKE: The Twins rank third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they have improved to second in those respective categories since the beginning of July. 10* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (967) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Zack Littell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-23 |
Pirates v. Braves -1.5 |
|
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (91-48) snapped a three game losing streak after their 8-5 win at home against St. Louis. Pittsburgh (65-75) has won two of their last three games after their 5-4 win against Milwaukee on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta got back to their winning ways last night — and they have still won seven of their last ten games. The Braves have won a decisive 63 of their last 90 games after winning their last game. They banged five home runs last night — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after a game where they hit five or more homers. They have also won 31 of their last 41 games after losing three of their last four contests. They have a 45-24 record this season — and they have won 14 of their last 19 games at home. Atlanta has also won 24 of their last 33 home games when priced as a favorite at -150 or higher. Elder gets the start with his 11-4 record along with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 27 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.02 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 14 starts as opposed to his 3.84 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 13 starts on the road. He faces a Pirates team that scores only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed pitching with a .230 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and a .686 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh ranks 22nd in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitching — and they fall to 23rd in both those categories since June 1st. The Pirates have lost 19 of their last 28 games after beating an NL Central rival in their last game by one run — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They counter with Keller who has an 11-8 record with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 28 starts. While the right-hander has a 3.18 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 13 starts at home, those numbers rise to a 4.62 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in 15 starts on the road. Now he faces this Braves team that leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 69 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 46 times with 13 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 47 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 33 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Braves (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Bryce elder. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-23 |
Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 |
|
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (903) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-48) has lost three games in a row after their 11-6 loss at home to the Cardinals in the third game of this series last night. St. Louis (61-78) has won three games in a row and five of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: While losing Run-Line plays with Atlanta the last two days have been frustrating, I'm not chasing them tonight. I remain steadfast: if we can lower the investment price on the team with the best record in MLB to under -150 and absorb those losses with their 65%+ winning percentage, then it is a long-term profitable situation as long as Atlanta is not winning their games by just one run (and they are not still — see my Final Take). I do have to like the pitching and team matchup to give the Run-Line a go — and this remains a good spot for the Braves. Atlanta has rebounded to win 5 of their last 8 games after a loss. They were on a six-game winning streak before dropping their last three contests — and they have won 13 of their last 15 games at home after losing their last game by four or more runs. They have also won 11 of their last 17 games after losing three of their last four games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 10 or more runs. They still have a 44-24 record this season — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games at home. Atlanta has also won 14 of their last 20 home games when priced as a favorite in the -250 to -330 range. Fried gets the start with a 6-1 record along with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 11 starts. In his starts since returning from the injured list, the left-hander has a 2.55 ERA — and he has 24 strikeouts in his last three starts over 18 2/3 innings. The Braves have won 37 of their last 55 home games with Fried on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Cardinals team that ranks 22nd and 23rd in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. St. Louis has lost 17 of their last 22 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also lost 5 of their last 8 games on the road. They counter with Wainwright who has a 3-10 record with a 8.10 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP in 18 starts. He is playing out the string with his long-time franchise despite getting roughed up for a 10.89 ERA and a 2.23 WHIP in his five August starts. Now he faces an angry Braves team that leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. Atlanta has won 10 straight games when playing with double-revenge from getting upset by their opponent in two straight games despite being priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher in both games.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 68 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 45 times with 13 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 46 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 32 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 8* MLB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (903) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-23 |
Orioles -140 v. Angels |
|
10-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Patrick Sandoval. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (87-51) has won four straight games — and 13 of their last 17 contests — after their 5-4 victory on the road against the Angels last night. Los Angeles (64-75) has lost five straight games and eight of their last nine contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore has won 9 of their last 12 games after winning their last game. They also have won 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have won 17 of their last 20 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They have also won 33 of their last 49 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Gibson gets the start with a 13-8 record along with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 28 starts. He has struggled lately — but the deeper sabermetrics still are stable with both his SIERA and xFIP protecting an ERA of 4.35 and 4.09 moving forward. He faces a reeling Angels team that ranks 27th and 28th in MLB since August 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. Los Angeles has lost 9 of their last 11 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 6 straight games at home. They counter with Sandoval who has a 7-11 record along with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 24 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.89 and 4.49 moving forward. He has been less effective at home where he owns a 4.45 ERA and a .272 opponent’s batting average in 10 starts as opposed to his 3.97 ERA and .227 opponent’s batting average in 14 starts on the road. The Angles have lost 7 of their last 8 home games with Sandoval on the hill with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces an Orioles team that ranks fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels have lost the first two games of this series — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 games when playing with double-revenge. 8* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Patrick Sandoval. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-23 |
Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 |
Top |
11-6 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (963) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dakota Hudson. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-47) has lost two games in a row after their 10-6 loss at home to the Cardinals in the second game of this series last night. St. Louis (60-78) has won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has rebounded to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. They were on a six-game winning streak before dropping their last two contests — and they have won 13 of their last 14 games at home after losing their last game by four or more runs. They have also won 44 of their last 62 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They still have a 44-23 record this season — and they have won 13 of their last 17 games at home. Atlanta has also won 14 of their last 19 home games when priced as a favorite in the -250 to -330 range. Their ace gets the ball tonight on a personal four-game winning streak after allowing four runs in six innings on the road against the Dodgers in an 8-6 victory last Thursday — he had only given up one earned run in his last three starts combined. He sported a 5-1 record in August with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings with 46 strikeouts and only 13 bases-on-balls. For the season, the right-hander has a 16-4 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 27 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.76 and 2.87 moving forward. He also has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in 13 starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 16 games at home with Strider on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at -200 or higher. He faces a Cardinals lineup that is hitting only .237 in their last seven games with a .304 on-base percentage. 204 batting average even after yesterday’s scoring outburst. St. Louis ranks 21st and 22nd in MLB since August 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 6 games after winning their previous game — and they have lost 17 of their last 21 games after a victory by four or more runs. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They counter with Hudson who has a 5-1 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 56 innings which includes seven starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.08 and 4.93 moving forward. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he owns a 3.43 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 39 1/3 innings — but those numbers rise to a 5.40 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in 16 2/3 innings on the road. He only has three Quality Starts in his last six starts overall — and now he faces this Braves team that leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 67 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 45 times with 12 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 45 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 32 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. The Cardinals have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their 9 games this season when priced as a money-line dog at +145 or higher — and none of those three +1.5 Run-Line covers were from losses by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (963) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dakota Hudson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-23 |
Giants v. Cubs -140 |
|
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (954) versus the San Francisco Giants (953) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Wicks and Alex Wood. THE SITUATION: Chicago (75-64) has won three straight games — and six of their last eight — after their 11-8 victory against the Giants in the second game of their series last night. San Francisco (70-69) has lost five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last game — and they have won 32 of their last 53 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Cubs have won 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have won 22 of their last 35 games at Wrigley Field after winning at least three of their last four games. Rookie left-hander Wicks gets his third start of the season (and career) after winning his first two starts with a 1.80 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 10 innings. Wicks punched out 12 batters in that span with both those starts on the road — so this will be his debut at home in front of the Wrigleyville faithful. The deeper sabermetrics, of course, call for some regression from a sub-2.00 ERA — but his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.65 and 3.55 moving forward from his first two MLB starts. That number falls right in line with his numbers in the minors this season as he posted a 3.55 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in 91 1/3 innings across Triple-A and Double-A this season with 99 strikeouts and just 32 walks. And while I am usually hesitant to back rookie pitchers with small sample sizes, I like the matchup against this slumping Giants team that struggles against left-handed pitching. San Francisco ranks 27th in MLB this season in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they have fallen to last in MLB in both those categories since the beginning of July. In their last seven games, the Giants are scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .198 batting average, a .265 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .601. They have lost 8 of their last 12 games after losing their last game. San Francisco has also lost 11 of their last 14 games on the road — including five in a row — and they have lost 10 of their last 12 road games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. Wood gets the ball this afternoon with his 5-4 record along with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 80 2/3 innings between 11 starts and 13 appearances out of the bullpen. The metrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.05 and 5.25 moving forward. And while he has a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in 40 2/3 innings at home, those numbers rise to a 1.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in 40 innings on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have won 37 of their last 59 games in the second half of the season — and they are scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with an OPS of .789 during that span. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (954) versus the San Francisco Giants (953) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Wicks and Alex Wood. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-05-23 |
Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 |
|
10-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Michael Soroka and Miles Mikolas. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-46) saw their six-game winning streak snapped with a 3-1 loss in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Sunday. St. Louis (59-78) ended their two-game losing streak with a 6-4 win against Pittsburgh on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has rebounded to win 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have won 11 of their last 14 games after a game where neither team scored more than three runs. The Braves have managed only five base hits in each of their last two games — but they have then won 11 of their last 17 games after playing two games in a row where they did not have more than five hits. Atlanta has held their last three opponents to three runs or less — and they have won 18 of their last 27 games after playing three games in a row where they did not allow more than four runs. Furthermore, the Braves have won 15 of their last 20 games after a day off — and they have won 44 of their last 61 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They return home after a long road trip where they have a 44-22 record this season — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games at home. Atlanta has also won 24 of their last 32 home games when priced as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. They called up Soroka to make this start — the right-hander has a 2-1 record with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings earlier this summer before being sent down to the minors. I have been skeptical about Soroka returning to the hill after two Tommy John surgeries that kept him on the shelf since 2020 — but there are three reasons to feel optimistic about him. First, while he pitched only nine innings at home at Truist Park, he struck out 10 batters in nine innings without walking anyone. Second, he pitched quite well back in Triple-A for the Gwinnett team as he registered a 2.77 ERA in 26 innings with 34 strikeouts and only eight bases-on-balls. Third, he faces a slumping Cardinals lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .204 batting average, a .282 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .652 during that span. St. Louis ranks 21st and 22nd in MLB since August 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning their previous game. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 26 of their last 39 games on the road when priced as a money-line underdog from +150 to +200. St. Louis has lost all three of their games against Atlanta after getting swept in early April — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games when playing with triple revenge. They counter with Mikolas who has a 6-10 record with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 29 starts. In his last 17 starts since June 1st, the right-hander has a 5.32 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. The Cardinals have lost their last four games on the road when Mikolas is on the mound as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. He faces a Braves team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .302 batting average, a .348 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .890 during that span. Atlanta leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 66 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 45 times with 11 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 44 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 32 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. The Cardinals have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their 8 games this season when priced as a money-line dog at +145 or higher — and none of those three +1.5 Run-Line covers were from losses by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Michael Soroka and Miles Mikolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-03-23 |
Yankees v. Astros -132 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-132 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the New York Yankees (923) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Michael King. THE SITUATION: Houston (77-60) has lost two games in a row after dropping the second game of this series by a 5-4 score on Saturday. New York (67-69) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 13 of their last 20 games after losing their previous game — and they have won 14 of their last 23 games after losing two games in a row. Javier gets the ball tonight with a 9-2 record but a disappointing 4.66 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 25 starts. Most of the right-hander’s problems have been on the road where he has a 5.51 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 15 starts — but he remains reliable at home where he owns a 3.40 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 10 starts. The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Javier on the mound pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Yankees team that ranks 25th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitching — and they have fallen to 27th in both those categories since July 1st. New York has lost 17 of their last 26 games after a win by two runs or less — and they have lost 20 of their last 29 games after winning two or more games in a row. They counter with King who has a 3-5 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 73 innings. General manager Brian Cashman must have told lame-duck manager Aaron Boone to experiment with King in the starting rotation for the rest of the season in one of his last acts before he fires the Yankees’ skipper. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.34 and 3.51 — and that does not take into account the drop in effectiveness relievers tend to experience when being stretched out as a starter since they cannot rely simply on throwing their hardest for 10 to 20 pitches.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have won 17 of their last 25 games when playing with double-revenge against their opponent. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the New York Yankees (923) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Michael King. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-01-23 |
Yankees v. Astros -163 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-163 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the New York Yankees (923) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Houston (77-58) has won five straight games after their 7-4 win at Boston on Wednesday. New York (65-69) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-3 loss at Detroit on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has averaged 10.3 Runs-Per-Game in their current five-game winning streak. They have won 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games after scoring six or more runs in their last contest. They return home where they have won 20 of their last 30 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Verlander gets the start with his 10-6 record along with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander hander has been more effective at home this season where he owns a 2.27 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in 11 starts as opposed to his 4.02 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in ten starts on the road. Verlander’s teams have won 16 of their last 22 games when playing at home when he is on the mound with the Total set from 7 to 8.5. He faces a Yankees team that ranks 25th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitching — and they have fallen to 27th in both those categories since July 1st. New York has lost 9 of their last 12 games after losing their previous game. They have also lost 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 road games when priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. They counter with Rodon who has a 1-4 record with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in eight starts. The left-hander has been even worse on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in three starts as compared to his 4.94 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in five starts at home. Rodon’s teams have lost 7 straight games on the road when he is on the mound priced as a money-line underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros rank fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching — and they have risen to third and second in those categories since July 1st. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (924) versus the New York Yankees (923) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-30-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
|
0-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Pfaadt and Ryan Pepiot. THE SITUATION: Arizona (69-64) has lost three of their last four games after their 9-1 loss on the road against the Dodgers last night. Los Angeles (82-49) has won three in a row and six of their last seven with the victory in the second game of this series yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have scored 23 combined runs in their last three games with seven runs or more in each contest — and they have posted a .372 on-base percentage in those three games. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring seven or more runs in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring seven or more runs in three or more games in a row. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after posting a .393 on-base percentage in their last three games. Additionally, the Dodgers have played 30 of their last 40 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played six straight Overs — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing four or more Overs in a row. Furthermore, the Dodgers have played 36 of their last 55 games Over the Total when favored in the -125 to -175 price range — and they have played 31 of their last 49 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Pepiot gets his first start in an injury-plagued season after pitching nine innings out of the bullpen this month. I don’t put much weight into his 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP this year. In his 36 1/3 innings last year with the Dodgers, the right-hander had a 3.47 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP — and the deeper sabermetrics called for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.96 and 5.31. In his 22 1/3 innings in Triple-A this season, while he posted a 3.97 ERA, his xFIP (no SIERA data for the minor leagues) rose to 4.65. He is not expected to pitch more than five innings tonight — and Los Angeles has logged-in 15 combined innings in their last three games. The Dodgers have played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched 13 or more innings in their last three games. Arizona is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .262 batting average, a .349 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .762 which are all marks higher than their season average. The Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. They counter with Pfaadt who has a 1-6 record with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. The right-hander has pitched better as of late with only 10 earned runs allowed in his 29 2/3 innings in five starts this month. He is throwing his sweeper more and registering more strikes — but concerns remain because his sweeper is his only effective pitch according to the sabermetrics. His lack of an effective arsenal beyond that one pitch likely imposes a low-ceiling on his potential. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.59 and 4.68 this season. In 61 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year, while he had a 2.63 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, his xFIP rose to a 4.42 mark. And even in his 60 2/3 innings at Triple-A this season, his 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP are betrayed by an xFIP of 4.82. The sabermetrics are consistently suggesting that this is a 4.42 to 4.82 ERA pitcher — and that is an ominous proposition when pitching against a red-hot Dodgers lineup. In his previous start against this team, he allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .344 batting average, a .415 on-base percentage, and a .987 OPS during that span. The Dodgers rank fifth and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank sixth and fifth in those categories this month. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Pfaadt and Ryan Pepiot. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-30-23 |
Reds v. Giants -156 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-156 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (906) versus the Cincinnati Reds (905) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Hunter Greene. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (69-63) has won three games in a row after their 6-1 win at home against the Reds yesterday. Cincinnati (68-66) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 25 of their last 37 games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also won 14 of their last 22 games at home. Webb gets the ball this afternoon with his 9-10 record along with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.22 and 2.99 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.48 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.63 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .272 in 14 starts on the road. The Giants have won 42 of their last 58 games with Webb on the hill favored at a -110 or higher money-line price. He faces a slumping Reds lineup that ranks just 18th and 19th in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitching. Cincinnati is only hitting .146 in their last five games — and they have lost 27 of their last 34 games after failing to hit better than .200 in their last five games. They only scratched out one hit last night against the Giants’ Alex Cobb — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after failing to generate more than four base hits in their last game. And while the Reds have played three straight Unders, they have then lost 11 of their last 17 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They counter with Greene who has a 2-6 record with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 16 starts. He has not been sharp after returning from the 60-day injured list this month. He has a 0-2 record with a 17.55 ERA and a 3.45 WHIP in his two appearances. The Reds have lost 20 of their last 25 games with Greene on the mound their starting pitcher with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: While the Giants may rank 27th and 21st in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers, they have improved to 10th and 11th rankings in those categories this month. 8* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (906) versus the Cincinnati Reds (905) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Hunter Greene. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-29-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -168 |
|
1-9 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (81-49) has won five of their last six games after their 7-4 victory at home against the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this NL Wes series. Arizona (69-63) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has been dominant as of late with 18 wins in their last 21 games — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after winning their last game. The Dodgers have also won 32 of their last 43 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, they have won 13 of their last 14 games at home — and they have won 28 of their last 41 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Kershaw gets the ball with his 11-4 record along with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 19 starts. The left-hander continues to be very tough to hit at home where he owns a 1.72 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in eight starts — as opposed to his 3.13 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in 11 starts on the road. The Dodgers have won 22 of their last 31 games at home with Kershaw on the mound — including six of his eight starts at home this season. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 21st and 22nd in MLB this season on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank just 26th in both those categories since July 1st. Arizona has lost 8 of their last 12 games after losing their previous game. They have also lost 16 of their last 24 games on the road. They have also lost 22 of their last 33 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. They counter with Kelly who has a 10-5 record with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.70 moving forward. He has done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.96 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in 12 starts — but while his ERA on the road only inches up to 2.98 in 11 starts, his WHIP and opponent’s batting average rise to 1.20 and .242 in those 11 games. Arizona has lost 8 of their last 12 games in August when Kelly is their starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers rank seventh and fifth in MLB this season at home against right-handed pitching. 8* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-29-23 |
Padres v. Cardinals UNDER 9 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-112 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (62-70) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-1 victory on the road against the Cardinals. St. Louis (56-76) has lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have scored only four combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than two runs in any of those four games. The Cards have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 40 of their last 55 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in four straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing three straight games where they did not score more than two runs. And in their last 7 games at home, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. Thompson gets the start tonight with his 3-5 record along with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 35 innings. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.43 and 3.08 moving forward. The left-hander has been getting excellent results since adding a slider/cutter pitch to his arsenal which is generating swinging strikes. Since he debuted the pitch on July 19th, Thompson has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP while striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings. He has been much better at home this season where he has a 1.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 19 1/3 innings as opposed to his 6.89 ERA, a 1.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in 15 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a slumping Padres offense that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .310 on-base percentage, and a .680 OPS during that span. San Diego has 36 of their last 60 games Under the Total after winning their last game — including four of their last six contests. They have also played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Padres have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 36-46% of their games. They counter with Lugo who has a 5-6 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts consisting of six-inning efforts apiece. Furthermore, Lugo has held six of his last seven opponents to less than three earned runs — he sports a 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP during those seven starts with 43 strikeouts in those 40 1/3 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in ten starts at home. The Padres have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Lugo on the hill with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .169 batting average, a .246 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-23 |
A's v. Mariners -1.5 |
Top |
0-7 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (919) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Kyle Muller. THE SITUATION: Seattle (74-56) has won three straight games — as well as 11 of their last 12 — after their 3-2 victory against Kansas City on Sunday. Oakland (38-93) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle has been one of the best teams in baseball this month having won 19 of their last 23 games. They have overtaken Texas for first place in the AL West during this surge. This resurgence for a group that spent half the season underachieving after making the playoffs last year can be attributed mostly to the scorching-hot play of Juan Rodriguez. The sophomore put up underwhelming numbers (for him) in the first few months of the season — despite the underlying data which were pretty much in line with his spectacular rookie season. But the Regression Gods have made their presence felt recently as Rodriguez boasts a .386 batting average in the last 30 days with a .431 on-base percentage and an OPS of 1.054 over that span. In the last 30 days, he has blasted six home runs while driving in 29 runners and stealing 11 bases. Rodriguez is carrying this team — and 13 of their last 19 victories have been by more than one run. Seattle has won 15 of their last 17 games after winning their last game. They have also won 52 of their last 82 games after a victory by two runs or less. They have won 36 of their last 55 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while the Mariners have not committed an error in their last two games, they have then won 29 of their last 44 games after playing two games in a row without committing an error. Seattle stays at home where they have won 11 of their last 15 games — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. Woo gets his second start since returning from the injured list after dealing with forearm inflammation. The right-hander allowed only one run in four innings of work in Chicago against the White Sox last Tuesday. He looks ready to pitch at least five innings tonight. For the season, he has a 1-3 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.99 and 4.13 moving forward. And while he has been saddled with an 11.25 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a .324 opponent’s batting average in his two starts for day games, he has a 3.53 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in his 10 starts at night. Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games with Woo pitching on five or six days of rest. He faces an A’s team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game against fellow AL West opponents with a .196 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .581. Oakland has lost 28 of their last 34 games against division rivals. They have lost 70 of their last 92 games after losing their previous game. They have scored only three combined runs in their last two games — and they have then lost 26 of their last 30 games after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. The A’s stay on the road where they have lost 11 of their last 14 games — and they have lost 27 of their last 30 games on the road when priced as a +200 or higher money-line underdog. Muller gets the ball tonight with his 1-4 record with a 7.28 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in 13 appearances including 11 starts. And while he has a 5.25 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in his eight games at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 10.41 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .357 in his five starts on the road. He faces this Mariners lineup that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .318 batting average, a .393 on-base percentage, and a .951 OPS during that span.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. I did take pause with this situation when considering that Seattle has only covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their 34 games this season when priced above my -150 threshold (with six one-run wins and 13 upset losses). But the Mariners have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 4 of their last 6 games when priced above -150 with just one-run and one upset loss in those six games. When Seattle has been priced at -200 or higher this season (as they are in this contest), they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their 14 games (with three losses and three one-run wins). And they are playing the worst team in baseball who have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 7 of their last 10 games when priced at +145 or higher. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line of the Month is with the Seattle Mariners (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (919) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Kyle Muller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-23 |
Angels v. Phillies -128 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (922) versus the Los Angeles Angels (921) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Lucas Giolito. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (72-58) has won three straight games — and five of their last six contests — after their 3-0 win against St. Louis on Sunday. Los Angeles (63-68) has lost five of their last seven games after their 3-2 loss in New York against the Mets yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has not allowed more than two runs in three straight games — and they have won 14 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than three runs in two or more games in a row. The Phillies stay at home where they have won 11 of their last 15 games — and they have won 18 of their last 28 games at home when priced up to -150 as a money-line favorite. Walker gets the start with his 13-5 record along with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 25 starts. The right-hander has been much more effective at home where he owns a 3.14 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.98 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in 12 starts on the road. Philadelphia has won 17 of their last 20 home games with Walker on the mound with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. He faces this slumping Angels team that ranks 24th and 23rd in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has lost 11 of their last 15 games after losing their last game. They have also lost 10 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than three runs in their last contest. They counter with Giolito who has a 7-10 record with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 26 starts. In his four starts this month, the right-hander has a 7.06 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271. With the White Sox and now the Angels, he has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.53 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a .178 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts — but he has been saddled with a 6.14 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .339 in 14 starts on the road. His teams have lost 13 of their last 17 road games with when he is on the mound priced as a money-line underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia ranks fourth and fifth in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (922) versus the Los Angeles Angels (921) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Lucas Giolito. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-23 |
Braves -116 v. Giants |
|
5-8 |
Loss |
-116 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (959) versus the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (84-44) has won four straight games after their 7-3 victory on the road against the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (66-63) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has won 26 of their last 38 games after a win by four or more runs. They won the opening game of this series by a 5-1 score on Friday — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by four or more runs. And in their last 23 games after winning four or more games in a row, the Braves have won 17 of those contests. Shuster gets the start with his 4-2 record along with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in nine starts. Atlanta has won 5 of their 7 games this season when the left-hander is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. San Francisco has lost 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than four runs in their last game. They have lost 29 of their last 48 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last five games at home, they have lost 4 of these contests. They counter with Beck who has a 3-2 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 67 1/3 innings. This will be his first start of the season — and the metrics call for regression even before the typical drop in effectiveness when a pitcher attempts to stretch out for more than one inning. His SIERA and xFIP projects an ERA of 4.03 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.33 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in 35 1/3 innings as opposed to his 2.25 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in 32 innings.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves score 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .273 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .502. Atlanta ranks first and second in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created this season on the road against right-handed pitching — and they rank second in both those categories since June. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (959) versus the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-23 |
Braves v. Giants OVER 9 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (84-44) has won four straight games after their 7-3 victory on the road against the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (66-63) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 31 of their last 49 games on the road Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in three or more games in a row — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Additionally, in their last 27 games on the road in August, Atlanta has played 19 of these games Over the Total. Shuster gets his tenth start of the season carrying a 4-2 record along with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 6.18 and 6.19 moving forward. And while the left-hander has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in five starts at home, those numbers rise to a 6.27 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in four starts on the road. He faces a Giants lineup that has a .267 batting average in their last seven games with a .322 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .731 during that span which compares favorably versus their .239 batting average, a .306 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .694 for the season. San Francisco ranks eighth and sixth this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Braves scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total against National League teams scoring 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Beck who has a 3-2 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 67 1/3 innings. This will be his first start of the season — and the metrics call for regression even before the typical drop in effectiveness when a pitcher attempts to stretch out for more than one inning. His SIERA and xFIP projects an ERA of 4.03 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.33 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in 35 1/3 innings as opposed to his 2.25 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in 32 innings.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves score 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .273 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .502. Atlanta ranks first and second in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created this season on the road against right-handed pitching — and they rank second in both those categories since June. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-23 |
Yankees v. Rays -127 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-127 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (78-51) has four games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 5-3 victory against Colorado on Thursday. New York (61-66) has lost 10 of their last 11 games after their 6-5 loss to Washington yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay hit rock bottom on July 29th when their record fell to 62-44 — only four games above .500 since their blazing 14-0 start to the season. But the Rays have since gone 15-7 with nine victories in their last 12 games. They have won 13 of their last 17 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they have won their last two games by two runs or less in their last two contests, they have then won 13 of their last 21 games after winning their last two games by less than three runs. Tampa Bay has won 41 of their last 61 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 12 of their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. Eflin gets the ball coming off six innings of one-run ball in his last start in Los Angeles against the Angels last Saturday. The right-hander has a 13-7 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 24 starts. In his four starts this month, he has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.44 and 3.27 moving forward. And while he allowed six runs in just three innings in his last start at home against Cleveland on August 13th, he still owns a 3.05 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 14 starts at home as opposed to his 4.37 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in ten starts on the road. Tampa Bay has won 11 of Eflin’s 14 starts at home this season — and they have won 30 of their last 40 home games with him on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Yankees lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .201 batting average, a .268 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .674. New York ranks just 25th and 24th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Manager Aaron Boone is a lame duck working his last five weeks with the team before finally getting fired with the hot seat now moving towards general manager Brian Cashman. The Yankees are now five games under .500 after enduring a nine-game losing streak during this recent slump — that was the first time since 1982 that the Bronx Bombers lost nine games in a row. New York has lost 10 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while they only hit .166 in their last five games, they have then lost 11 of their last 33 games on the road when not hitting higher than .225 in their last five games. The Yankees have lost 19 of their last 30 games on the road when price as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Cole who has a 10-4 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 26 starts. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.75 moving forward. He has struggled this month with a 5.25 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .247 opponent’s batting average in four starts. New York has lost 8 of their last 10 games in August — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with Cole pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Cole faces a Rays lineup that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .345 batting average, a .399 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .964. Tampa Bay has a .458 on-base percentage in their last five games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after posting an on-base percentage of .375 or higher in their last five contests. Tampa Bay still ranks eighth and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank sixth and third in those categories this month. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-23 |
Reds v. Diamondbacks -160 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (904) versus the Cincinnati Reds (903) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Brandon Williamson. THE SITUATION: Arizona (66-61) has won four games in a row after their 6-3 victory at home against Texas on Tuesday. Cincinnati (67-61) has won three games in a row after their doubleheader sweep in Los Angeles against the Angels yesterday that culminated with a 7-3 win last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring six or more runs in their last contest. The Diamondbacks stay at home where they have won 4 games in a row — and they have won 10 of their last 13 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Kelly gets the start for Arizona with his 10-5 record with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 11 starts as opposed to his 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 11 starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have won 9 of their last 13 home games with Kelly on the hill when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Cincinnati has lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. The Reds have also lost 13 of their last 19 games against teams winning 51-54% of their games. They counter with Williamson who has a 4-3 record with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.70 and 4.69 moving forward. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 4.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in nine starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.79 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in eight starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks have lost their last three games after getting swept in Cincinnati a month ago — but Arizona has won 9 of their last 11 games when avenging three straight losses to their opponent. 8* MLB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (904) versus the Cincinnati Reds (903) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Brandon Williamson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-23 |
Red Sox v. Astros -105 |
|
7-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (966) versus the Boston Red Sox (965) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Houston (72-55) has won two games in a row after their 7-3 victory at home against the Red Sox last night. Boston (66-60) has lost two games in a row after riding a three-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 7 of their last 11 games after winning their last game. They have also won 24 of their last 35 home games with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Astros play their sixth straight game at home having won a decisive 63 of their last 88 games after playing their previous five or more games in a row at Minute Maid Park. Urquidy gets the start looking to regain the form he had last season in helping Houston win the World Series. In a season marred by injury, he has a 2-3 record with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in nine games (eight starts). In his last two appearances, he has a 1.27 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP in seven innings including a five-inning start where he allowed only one run on August 13th. He pitched two innings of relief to close out a game in his last appearance — he has ten strikeouts in his last seven innings. Remember, he posted a 13-8 record with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 164 1/3 innings and 28 starts last year. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.35 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .268 in five appearances as opposed to his 6.23 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in four starts on the road. Houston has won 18 of their last 25 home games with Urquidy on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Boston has lost the first two games in this series — and they have lost 13 of their last 20 games when playing with double-revenge. They play their ninth straight game on the road having lost 18 of their last 23 games after playing five or more games in a row. They are scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road while posting a .240 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .706. They have lost 33 of their last 42 games in the second-half of the season against teams winning 54-62% of their games. Houston scores 4.9 Runs-Per-Game — and the Red Sox have lost 15 of their last 17 games against AL teams who score 4.9 Runs-Per-Game. Boston counters with Sale who has a 5-3 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts. The left-hander’s velocity was down in his last start which is of concern as he gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings at Washington last Thursday. While he has a 3.69 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in six starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.20 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in seven starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros are scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .285 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and an .872 OPS. Houston crushes left-handed pitching as well — they are scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .275 batting average, a .345 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .834 against lefties. Furthermore, the Astros rank third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers — and they rank third and second in those categories since July 1st. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Houston Astros (966) versus the Boston Red Sox (965) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-23 |
Mets v. Braves -193 |
|
0-7 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the New York Mets (957) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (81-44) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 3-2 victory against the Mets last night. New York (59-68) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta was leading 3-0 in this game before giving up a two-run homer in the sixth inning — and, unfortunately, did not score another run to cover the -1.5 Run-Line we were laying in that game. The Braves offense is slumping as of late — but I do like the pitching matchup, let's go with the money-line with this contest priced in the -200 range but with just an 8* play to lower the investment risk. Atlanta has won 55 of their last 80 games after winning their previous contest. They have also won 11 of their last 16 games at home with the Total set at 10 or higher. The Braves have now won 26 of their last 34 games against fellow NL East rivals. Morton gets the start tonight with his 12-10 record along with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 24 starts. He has been pitching well this month with a 2.93 ERA and a .196 opponent batting average in three starts. The veteran right-hand has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in 12 starts as opposed to this 1.57 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 13 of their last 21 home games with Morton on the mound priced as a money-line favorite in the -150 to -200 price range. New York has lost 24 of their last 32 games on the road as an underdog including 10 of their last 11 games on the road as a dog priced from +175 to +250. They counter with Quintana who has a 1-4 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in six starts since beginning his season last month after recovering from ring surgery. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.28 and 5.08 moving forward. And while the left-hander has a 2.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in two starts at home, he has been less effective on the road where he has a 3.28 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in four starts. Quintana’s teams have lost 17 of their last 25 games on the road when he is on the hill pitching as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Quintana faces a Braves team that ranks first and second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the New York Mets (957) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-23 |
Marlins v. Padres -162 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-162 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (908) versus the Miami Marlins (907) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: San Diego (60-66) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 6-2 victory at home against the Marlins last night. Miami (64-62) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Marlins have lost 7 of their last 10 games after losing their previous game. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, Miami has lost 17 of their last 21 games on the road. Luzardo gets the ball with his 8-8 record along with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 25 starts. The lefty has been at his best at home where he owns a 3.69 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 15 starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.89 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .288 in ten starts on the road. Miami has lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road with Luzardo pitching with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He faces a Padres lineup that crushes left-handed pitching. San Diego ranks fourth and second since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching — and they rank fifth in both those categories since July 1st. The Padres have won 23 of their last 36 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. They counter with Snell who has a 10-8 record along with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 25 starts. The lefty has been more effective at home where he has a 1.21 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .190 in 13 starts as opposed to his 1.33 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .199 in 12 starts on the road. San Diego has won 9 of their last 12 home games with Snell on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Marlins rank 27th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (908) versus the Miami Marlins (907) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-23 |
Mets v. Braves -1.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Tylor Megill. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (80-44) has lost two games in a row after their 10-4 loss at home to the Mets last night. New York (59-67) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta should bounce back tonight as they have won 20 of their last 24 games at home after a loss by four or more runs. They were heavy favorites priced in the -220 for that game yesterday — and they have won 16 of their last 23 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival priced at -150 or higher. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six or more runs to a divisional rival — and they have won 5 of the last 6 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game. Additionally, the Braves have won 14 of their last 16 games when avenging an upset loss at home when they were priced at -200 or higher. And while Atlanta has lost their last two games against the Mets after beating them by a 21-3 score on August 12th, they have won 44 of their last 64 games when playing with double-revenge. They have won 10 of their last 15 games at home with the Total set at 10 or higher — and they have won 5 straight home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. The Braves have also won 25 of their last 33 games against fellow NL East rivals. Elder gets the start with his 9-4 record along with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.12 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.86 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 11 starts on the road. And in his last two home starts, the right-hander has allowed only one earned run — good for a 0.64 ERA with a 0.57 WHIP in those 14 innings. He faces a Mets team that may be experiencing a dead cat bounce but who remains eight games under .500. New York has lost 14 of their last 23 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also lost 24 of their last 31 games on the road as an underdog including 9 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog priced from +175 to +250. They counter with Megill who has a 7-6 record along with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 18 starts. While the right-hander has been solid at home with a 3.49 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in nine starts, those numbers skyrocket to an 8.20 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .357 in nine starts on the road. New York is winless in their 5 road games this season with Megill on the mound pitching as the underdog. In his last six starts, he has been saddled with an 8.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. Now he faces a Braves team that ranks first and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB in those categories since the beginning of July.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 60 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 40 times with 11 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 38 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 27 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Mets covered the +1.5 Run-Line last night for the first time in their last seven games when priced as a money-line dog priced at +145 or higher — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their 11 games this season under those circumstances. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Tylor Megill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-21-23 |
Marlins v. Padres -185 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (958) versus the Miami Marlins (957) listing both starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Johnny Cueto. THE SITUATION: San Diego (59-66) has lost two straight games after their 8-1 loss in the second game of their doubleheader against Arizona on Saturday. Miami (64-61) has lost two straight games — and four of their last five — after their 3-1 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers in the second game of their doubleheader on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego has won 5 of their last 6 games after getting upset by an NL West rival -- and they have won 16 of their last 25 games after scoring one run in their last game. They have also won 11 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row at home against a divisional rival. And in their last 37 games after an off-day (with Saturday’s doubleheader scheduled in advance of Hurricane Hilary’s arrival yesterday), they have won 26 of those contests. Wacha gets the start with his 9-2 record along with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander has been very effective at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in nine starts. After being on the injured list for six weeks, he returned last Tuesday to pitch five scoreless innings at home against Baltimore. San Diego has won 17 of their last 23 home games with Wacha on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Marlins team that ranks 24th and 25th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 25th and 26th in those categories since July 1st. Miami has only scored two combined runs in their last two games after their identical 3-1 loss to the Dodgers in the opening game of their doubleheader on Saturday — and they have lost 14 of their last 20 games after failing to score or allow more than three runs in their last two games. The Marlins have also lost 14 of their last 20 road games when priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. They counter Weathers tonight to get a spot start with Johnny Cueto going on the injured list. The left-hander has a 1-7 record with a 6.89 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 13 games with ten starts this season. In his lone appearance for Miami after getting acquired from San Diego, he got rocked for six runs in 3 2/3 innings. His teams have lost 10 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season when he is their starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: With this pitching confirmation, let’s attack with this Padres lineup that crushes left-handed pitching. San Diego ranks fourth and second since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching — and they rank fifth in both those categories since July 1st. 8* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (958) versus the Miami Marlins (957) listing both starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Johnny Cueto. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-21-23 |
Giants v. Phillies -131 |
|
4-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (952) versus the San Francisco Giants (951) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Scott Alexander. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (67-57) has lost five of their last seven games after their 4-3 loss against Washington on the road in Williamsport in the Little League Classic last night. San Francisco (65-59) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-3 win against Atlanta on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: If there was any silver lining in Philadelphia’s loss last night, it was that we lowered the investment cost by taking them minus -1.5 Run-Line. Zack Wheeler gave up a few soft base hits in the first inning that got him into trouble — and the Nationals scored all four of their runs in that opening inning. This team has still gone on a 42-25 winning run since June 2nd when Wheeler got roughed up for seven runs by Washington. Look for the Phillies to bounce back tonight as they have won 6 of their last 8 games after a loss. They have also won 5 of their last 6 games after losing to an NL East rival by just one run — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games after getting upset by a divisional rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has won 13 of their last 17 games after getting upset by an NL East rival despite being listed as a money-line favorite priced higher than -150. The Phillies have won 34 of their last 47 games after losing five or six of their last seven games — including 13 of their 17 games this season under those circumstances. They return home where they have won 6 of their last 9 games — and they have won 15 of their last 24 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Philadelphia has also won 13 of their last 21 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Nola gets the ball with his 10-8 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 25 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate the right-hander should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projection an ERA of 3.83 and 3.80 moving forward. The biggest problem for him has been when he is on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .251 in 15 starts — but he has a Nola-like 3.59 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in his ten starts at home. The Phillies have won 5 of their 7 home games this season with Nola on the hill with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. He faces a slumping Giants’ lineup that is scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .237 batting average, a .283 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .639. San Francisco ranks 28th and 29th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Giants have bullpen issues after blowing two eighth-inning leads on Saturday and Sunday against the Braves — and they have lost 4 of their last 6 games after blowing saves in two straight games. They have also lost 4 in a row after winning their last game. They go back on the road where they have lost 12 of their last 14 games. They counter with Alexander to serve as an opener tonight with his 6-2 record along with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 43 2/3 innings. The left-hander has a 3.57 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings — but those numbers rise to a 4.50 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 26 innings on the road. He will likely be followed up with Sean Manaea (maybe manager Gabe Kapler squeezes in a right-hander between these lefties) who has been serving as a bulk reliever in situations like this. Manaea has a 4-3 record along with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 81 innings. The left-hander has a 3.64 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 42 innings — but those numbers rise to a 6.23 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 39 innings on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies will likely be swinging at left-handed pitching for at least half of this game tonight. They rank fifth and ninth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers — and they rise to second and fourth in MLB in those categories since July 1st. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (952) versus the San Francisco Giants (951) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Scott Alexander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-20-23 |
Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-135 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Phillies (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (910) in the Little League Classic listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (67-56) has won two of their last three games after their 12-3 victory on the road against the Nationals yesterday. Washington (56-68) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback. The Little League Classic is being played on a neutral field at the Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Connecticut.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Philadelphia has scored 28 combined runs in their last three games with at least seven runs in each of those contests. The Phillies have won 19 of their last 22 games after scoring seven or more runs in two straight games — and they have won 38 of their last 56 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last contest. All three of those games finished Over the Total — and Philadelphia has won 17 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. The Phillies have also won 17 of their last 22 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Wheeler gets the ball tonight with his 9-5 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.52 and 3.54 moving forward. The right-hander has ripped off seven straight Quality Starts — posting a 2.76 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in those 45 2/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and just seven walks in those seven starts. Philadelphia has won 11 of their last 13 games with Wheeler on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. He has a 3.24 ERA in his 13 starts on the road as opposed to his 4.07 ERA in 11 starts at home — and the Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 road games with Wheeler on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. He faces a Nationals team that ranks 24th and 25th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Washington has lost 19 of their last 25 games after losing their previous game by eight or more runs — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss at home by eight or more runs. The Nationals have still won six of their last eight games — but they have lost 10 of their last 14 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. And while they have allowed seven or more runs in three straight games, they have then lost 6 of their last 9 games after allowing seven or more runs. They counter with Williams who has a 5-7 record with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.85 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 — but those numbers rise to a 5.52 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in 13 starts on the road. While Williams is pitching for the technical home team tonight — I conclude that his better success at home relates to sleeping in his own bed, his familiarity with that mound, and performing in front of his home fans rather than pitching at the beginning of an inning. Washington has lost 5 of their last 6 games batting last with Williams their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog from +175 to +250. He faces this hot-hitting Phillies team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .265 batting average, a .343 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .847 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. Philadelphia has not been reliable laying the -1.5 Run-Line when priced as a money-line favorite above -150 — until recently. Since August 5th, the Phillies have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in five of their last seven situations when priced above my -150 threshold — and their two failures were straight-up losses (rather than one-run victories). Lastly, the five previous Little League Classic contests were all decided by three or more runs. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Philadelphia Phillies (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (910) in the Little League Classic listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-20-23 |
Orioles v. A's OVER 8 |
|
12-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and J.P. Sears. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (76-47) has won two straight games after their 7-2 victory on the road against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (34-89) has lost seven of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Bradish gets the start with his 7-6 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 20 seats. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.02 and 3.82 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.18 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .202, those numbers rise to a 3.97 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in 13 starts on the road. And while Bradish has allowed only two earned runs in his last two starts, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when Bradish is on the hill following up two straight starts where he did not allow more than two earned runs. And while the A’s may be last in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching, they do rise up the table to 18th in weighted On-Base Percentage and 11th in weighted Runs Created since July 1st at home against right-handers. Oakland has lost both games in this series by five or more runs — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by four or more runs. The A’s have also played 31 of their last 54 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs. They have also played 32 of their last 50 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five games. They counter with Sears who has a 2-9 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 24 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.49 and 5.07 moving forward. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.75 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 14 starts on the road. The A’s have played 5 straight Overs at home with Sears pitching as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore ranks second in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching. 8* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and J.P. Sears. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-23 |
Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8 |
Top |
10-3 |
Loss |
-119 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Seattle (67-55) has won four straight games after their 2-0 win on the road against the Astros yesterday. Houston (70-53) had won two games in a row before their loss last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have won all four of these games by two runs or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning three games in a row by two runs or less. Granted, Julio Rodriguez is tearing it up right now — he is 13 of 17 in his last three games — so taking an Under against a left-handed starting pitcher gave me pause. But the Mariners have stranded at least 10 baserunners in four straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more games in a row where they left 10 or more runners on base. Gilbert gets the ball tonight with his 10-5 record with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.65 moving forward. He has been outstanding since the beginning of July boasting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last eight starts with 50 strikeouts in those 49 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.51 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 11 starts at home. Houston has played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after getting shutout by an AL West rival. Furthermore, the Astros have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where two or fewer combined runs were scored. They counter with Valdez who has a 9-8 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 23 starts. The sabermetrics indicate he is meeting expectations given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.29 moving forward. He returns home to Minute Maid Park for the first time since he pitched a no-hitter against Cleveland on August 1st in an effort where he only walked one batter. He has thrived at home where he owns a 2.44 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.43 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in ten starts on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home with Valdez on the mound priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros struggle against home against right-handed pitching -- they rank 25th and 22nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted handed pitching. And since July 1st, Houston ranks 27th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted-handed pitching. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Padres -153 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Brandon Pfaadt. THE SITUATION: San Diego (58-64) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 3-1 loss at home to the Diamondbacks yesterday. Arizona (62-60) has won three games in a row and five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego has bounced back to win 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss at home against a divisional rival. They have also won 15 of their last 24 games after failing to score more than one run in their last game. And while they only managed three hits last night, they have then won 14 of their last 19 games after getting less than five hits in their last game. Lugo gets the starting assignment tonight with his 4-6 record along with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.83 and 3.62 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective under the lights as he owns a 2.80 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in nine starts at night as opposed to his 5.51 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .297 in nine starts in the day. San Diego has won 12 of their last 17 games at home with Lugo on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that has dropped to just 19th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Arizona has lost 18 of their last 21 games on the road after an upset victory against an NL West rival. They have also lost 18 of their last 28 games after a win by two runs or less. They counter with Pfaadt who has an 0-6 record with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 11 starts. The rookie right-hander has been a disaster under the lights where he has an 8.53 ERA, a 1.79 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .358 in four starts at night.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres have won 14 of their last 22 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home to their opponent. 8* MLB Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-23 |
Giants v. Braves -1.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (903) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Alex Cobb. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (78-42) has won three games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 2-0 victory against the New York Yankees on Wednesday. San Francisco (64-57) has lost six of their last eight games after their 6-1 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta is a juggernaut right now — and all six of their victories in their last seven games have been by more than one run. They only managed three hits in their win against the Yankees on Wednesday -- but they have then won 8 of their last 10 games after not scratching out more than four hits in their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, they have won 53 of their last 77 games after winning their last contest — including winning nine of their last 13 games after a win during this current hot streak. They have also won 13 of their last 18 games after a day off. They stay at home where they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games at home. The Braves have also won 27 of their last 36 games when priced as a money-line favorite (more on that in the Final Take regarding their success in covering the -1.5 Run-Line). While Atlanta’s Achilles’ heel is their starting rotation that has been hit hard by the injury bug, their ace goes tonight. Strider has a 13-4 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.77 and 2.87 moving forward. He has been more effective at home at Truist Park where he has a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.24 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road. The Braves have won 7 of their last 8 games at home with Strider on the hill with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They have also won 12 of their last 13 games this season with Strider pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -175 to -250 range. And in their last 12 games with Strider looking to extend a winning streak, Atlanta has won 11 of these contests. He faces a cold Giants’ lineup that is scoring 2.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .216 batting average, a .275 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .602. San Francisco ranks 26th and 27th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They have lost 30 of their last 48 games after scoring less than two runs in their last game including seven of their last eight games after scoring one run or less. San Francisco goes back on the road where they have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The Giants have also lost 62 of their last 87 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +200 or higher — and they have lost four of these last five situations. They counter with Cobb who has a 6-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander is struggling as of late after giving up six home runs in his three starts this month. He has a 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .328 during that span. He has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.25 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in ten starts — but in his 12 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a .304 opponent’s batting average. The Giants have lost 10 of their last 15 games on the road with Cobb on the hill. He faces this Braves Murderer’s Row that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .291 batting average, a .378 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .910 during that span. The Braves lead the MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage while ranking second in MLB Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they lead MLB since July 1st in both those categories.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 66 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 39 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 35 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 26 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Giants have been priced as a money-line underdog only nine times this season — and they have covered the +1.5 Run-Line five times (with four upset wins and a single one-run loss). While San Francisco’s numbers are not evidence to support this play, I mention it because their four multiple run loss in those nine games (in a small sample size) is not enough of a red flag to dismiss the overwhelming evidence supporting the Braves in this situation. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (903) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Alex Cobb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-16-23 |
Orioles v. Padres UNDER 8 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (929) and the San Diego Padres (930) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (74-46) had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 10-3 loss on the road against the Padres last night. San Diego (57-63) ended a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six or more runs. They have also played 35 of their last 54 road games Under the Total when listed as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. Kremer gets the ball tonight with his 11-4 record along with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander has been more outstanding in his two starts this month as he boasts a 2.92 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .182 in 11 innings. Kremer has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.70 ERA in 10 starts as compared to his 5.09 ERA in 14 starts at home. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total with Kremer on the hill as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Padres team that has disappointed by ranking 17th and 19th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. San Diego has played 33 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win this season — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by six or more runs. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 10 or more runs in their last game. The Padres have also played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total at home at Petco Park. They counter with Snell who has a 9-8 record this season with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 24 starts. In his last eight starts, the left-hander has a 1.47 ERA. He has been a bit more effective at home where he owns a 1.24 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.28 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with Snell on the mound as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 price range — including four of their last five games Under the Total under these circumstances. 8* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (929) and the San Diego Padres (930) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-16-23 |
Phillies v. Blue Jays -132 |
|
9-4 |
Loss |
-132 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (924) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (923) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Toronto (67-54) has won two games in a row after their 2-1 victory at home against the Phillies yesterday. Philadelphia (65-55) has lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto has won 30 of their last 48 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also won 11 of their last 16 games after playing a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored. The Blue Jays have also won 24 of their last 36 games in Interleague play. Gausman gets the start tonight looking to build on his 9-6 record along with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish on him with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.05 and 2.91 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.71 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 11 starts as compared to his 3.38 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 12 starts on the road. In his last seven starts, Gausman has a 2.90 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in those 40 1/3 innings. His teams have won 10 of their last 13 games in August when he is on the mound. He will be supported by a loaded Toronto bullpen that just got their closer Jordan Romano back from injury (he recorded the save last night) after adding Jordan Hicks from St. Louis at the trade deadline. The Blue Jays bullpen has a 1.25 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP in their last seven games. He faces a Phillies team that ranks 27th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Philadelphia has only scored two combined runs in their last three games — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. They got shut out in their previous game at Minnesota by a 3-0 score — and they have lost 7 straight games after playing two straight games where no more than three combined runs were scored. Additionally, the Phillies have lost 24 of their last 35 games on the road after losing two games in a row — and they have lost 7 of their last 11 road games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175. They counter with Nola who has a 9-8 record with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 24 starts this season. While the right-hander has been effective at home where he owns a 3.59 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in ten starts, those numbers rise to a 5.15 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in 14 starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has lost 13 of their last 19 road games with Nola on the mound as an underdog. 10* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (924) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (923) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-23 |
Tigers v. Twins -177 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (958) versus the Detroit Tigers (957) listing both starting pitchers Bailey Ober and Alex Faldo. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (62-58) has won two games in a row — and seven of their last 11 games — after their 3-0 victory at Philadelphia on Sunday. Detroit (53-65) has lost two of their last three games after a 6-3 loss at Boston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Detroit had won three games in a row before losing their last two games in their series against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. They have lost 17 of their last 24 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Tigers have also lost 16 of their last 19 games on the road after an off day. Additionally, Detroit has lost 16 of their last 23 road games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175. Faedo gets the ball with his 2-4 record along with a 5.80 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 40 1/3 innings this season. The right-hander has done his best pitching during day games where he has a 3.32 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .171 — but in his 18 2/3 innings at night, those numbers skyrocket to an 8.68 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average .263. He faces a Twins team that ranks fourth and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they rank fourth and third in those categories since July 1st. Minnesota has won 21 of their last 33 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They return home where they have won 12 of their last 17 games — and they have won 10 of their last 15 home games when priced in the -150 to -200 price range. They counter with Ober who has a 6-6 record along with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.03 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in 14 starts as compared to his 3.88 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in eight starts on the road. The Twins have won 5 of their last 7 games in August with Ober on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers are last in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they remain last in both those categories since June 1st. 8* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (958) versus the Detroit Tigers (957) listing both starting pitchers Bailey Ober and Alex Faldo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-23 |
Yankees v. Braves -1.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (971) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (76-42) has won four of their last five games — as well as six of their last eight contests — after their 11-3 victory against the Yankees in the opening game of this series last night. New York (60-59) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has lost 7 games in a row after allowing ten or more runs — and they have lost 6 straight games after a loss by eight or more runs. The Yankees have also lost 7 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss where their opponent scored ten or more runs. New York has also lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games. Severino continues to go to the mound for this team given the recent injuries to Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes — but he has been a disaster. The right-hander holds a 2-7 record with an 8.06 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in 14 appearances this season. He has been even worse on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.89 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .373 in his eight games (seven starts) on the road. The Yankees have lost 8 of their last 9 games with Severino starting on the road as an underdog. He faces a red-hot Braves lineup that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .335 batting average, a .446 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .966. The Braves lead the MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage while ranking second in MLB Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they lead MLB since July 1st in both those categories. Atlanta has won 51 of their last 75 games after winning their last game — and they have won 31 of their last 44 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Braves scored ten or more runs now 16 times this season — and they have won 12 of their 15 prior games after scoring ten or more runs this season. They have also won 19 of their last 25 home games when priced as the favorite in the -175 to -250 price range. They counter with Elder who has an 8-4 record with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching at home where he enjoys a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 starts. Atlanta has won 11 of their last 16 games at home with Elder on the hill pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed pitchers with a .229 batting average, a .229 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .695. New York ranks 24th and 22nd in MLB this seasoning weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs-Created on the road against right-handed pitching.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 64 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 37 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 33 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 24 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Yankees have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their last 8 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher with just one of those three covers being via a one-run loss. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (971) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-23 |
Orioles v. Padres UNDER 8.5 |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the San Diego Padres (916) listing both starting pitchers Grayson Rodriguez and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (73-45) has won three of their last four games after their 5-3 win at Seattle on Sunday. San Diego (56-62) has lost six of their last seven contests after their 5-4 loss at Arizona yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles are slumping with just 17 base hits in their three-game series in Seattle over the weekend. They had just a .167 batting average in that series — and they have played 28 of their last 43 games Under the Total after not hitting better than .200 in their last three games. Baltimore stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 34 of their last 53 road games Under the Total as an underdog listed in the +125 to +175 price range. Rodriguez gets the start with his 2-3 record along with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.20 and 3.88 moving forward. Since being called back up from Triple-A after struggling in his first stint with the Orioles in the spring, he sports a 2.66 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings with 20 strikeouts and just eight walks. The right-hander has also been more effective on the road where he has a 4.89 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in seven starts as compared to his 6.69 ERA, a 1.79 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .308 in eight starts at home. He faces a slumping Padres lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .231 batting average, a .288 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .658 during that span. San Diego ranks just 22nd and 16th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. They have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. They have also played 34 of their last 54 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Additionally, the Padres have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total against teams winning 54-62% of their games. They counter with Darvish who has an 8-7 record along with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 21 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results given his SIERA and xFIP of 4.05 and 3.94. In his last three starts, he has a 0.95 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. The right-hander has been better at home at Petco Park where he has a 4.06 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 11 starts as compared to his 4.34 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in his ten starts on the road. San Diego has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Darvish on the hill priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Orioles are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .204 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .625 during that span. Baltimore ranks just 23rd in MLB since June 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. 10* MLB Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the San Diego Padres (916) listing both starting pitchers Grayson Rodriguez and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-23 |
Yankees v. Braves -180 |
|
3-11 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (912) versus the New York Yankees (911) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (75-42) had won three games in a row before their 7-6 loss in New York against the Mets last night. New York (60-58) has lost three of their last four games after their 8-7 loss at Miami yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has won 11 of their last 14 games after a loss by just one run — and they have won 30 of their last 43 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they have won 18 of their last 27 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range — and they have won 29 of their last 41 home games when listed as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Fried gets the start with his 3-1 record along with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in seven starts in an injury-plagued season. The sabermetrics look good for the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.07 and 2.88 moving forward. He thrives in August with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 145 1/3 career innings. The Braves won 21 of their 24 games in August when Fried is their starting pitcher. New York has lost 12 of their last 18 games after allowing eight or more runs in the last game. The Yankees bullpen gave up five earned runs yesterday — and they have lost 17 of their last 26 games after their bullpen allowed five or more earned runs. They stay on the road where they have lost 13 of their last 18 road games after losing five or six of their last seven games. They counter with Schmidt who has an 8-6 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 24 games (23 starts). The right-hander has been better at home where he owns a 3.97 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 14 games — but those numbers rise to a 4.56 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in ten starts on the road. He last pitched on Tuesday — and the Yankees have lost 7 of their last 10 games with Schmidt pitching on five or six days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves lead the MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage while ranking second in MLB Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they lead MLB since July 1st in both those categories. 8* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (912) versus the New York Yankees (911) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-23 |
Braves -129 v. Mets |
|
6-7 |
Loss |
-129 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (953) versus the New York Mets (954) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Kodai Senga. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (75-41) has won five of their last six games after their doubleheader sweep on the road against the Mets yesterday. New York (52-65) has lost three games in a row as well as ten of their last 12 contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta crushed the Mets in the opener by a 21-6 score before shutting them out in the nightcap by a 6-0 margin. The Braves have now won 25 of their last 31 games against fellow NL East rivals. They have also won 29 of their last 43 games on the road when priced as the favorite at -125 or higher. The reason why they are priced in just the -130 range is because Chirinos takes the mound tonight. The right-hander has struggled with a 5-4 record with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 76 1/3 innings this season — but he has an 8.56 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP for Atlanta since they acquired him from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline. I am comfortable taking my chances on him at night backed by the juggernaut that is this Braves team. Most of his struggles have been at home where he has been saddled with a 6.25 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .333 in 31 2/3 innings — but he has a solid 3.83 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 44 2/3 innings on the road. Chirinos gets to face a slumping Mets lineup that New York ranks 26th and 21st in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York has lost 23 of their last 35 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, they have lost 22 of their last 30 games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. They counter with Senga who has an 8-6 record with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 21 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics do call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 3.79 moving forward. He faces this Braves lineup that leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right—handed pitching — and they lead MLB in those categories since June 1st as well.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 27 of their last 38 games when playing with revenge from two straight losses by six or more runs to their opponent. 8* MLB Atlanta-NY Mets ESPN Special with money-line on the Atlanta Braves (953) versus the New York Mets (954) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Kodai Senga. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-23 |
Reds v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (980) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Andre Jackson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (61-58) lost for the third time in their last four games with their 4-2 setback in the opening game of their doubleheader today with the Pirates. Pittsburgh (54-64) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates had allowed at least five runs in five straight games before holding the Reds to just two runs this afternoon. Pittsburgh has still played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total in the month of August — including eight of their 12 games this year. The Pirates have played 18 of their last 28 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season — and they have played 30 of their last 43 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has played 31 of their last 50 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Jackson gets the start for the nightcap with his 0-0 record with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in four relief appearances over 9 2/3 innings for the Pirates after picking him from the Dodgers this season. In his 17 2/3 innings for Los Angeles, the right-hander posted a 6.62 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He faces a Reds’ team that ranks fifth and seventh in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitching. Cincinnati has played 33 of their last 59 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 40 of their last 69 games Over the Total at night. Furthermore, the Reds have played 30 of their last 51 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Weaver who has a 2-4 record with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been even worse at night where he has a 7.24 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Weaver on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (980) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Andre Jackson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-23 |
Rangers v. Giants UNDER 8 |
|
9-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (931) and the San Francisco Giants (932) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb. THE SITUATION: Texas (69-47) has won nine of their last ten games after their 2-1 win on the road against the Giants last night. San Francisco (62-54) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. San Francisco has also played 24 of their last 35 games at home Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Cobb gets the start with his 6-3 record along with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.46 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in 12 starts on the road. The Giants have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with Cobb on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games at home Under the Total in the second half of the season with Cobb getting the ball as their starting pitcher. Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory by just one run. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced at +100 or higher. They counter with Heaney who has a 9-6 record along with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 22 starts. The left-hander has been better on the road where he has a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in eight starts as compared to his 1.38 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average at home. He faces a Giants team that ranks 27th and 25th in MLB this season in weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 8 of their 10 games this month Under the Total — and San Francisco has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 8* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (931) and the San Francisco Giants (932) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-23 |
Braves -1.5 v. Mets |
Top |
6-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Jose Quintana. Atlanta (74-41) has won straight games — and four of their last five — after taking the opening game of their doubleheader with the Mets this afternoon by a 21-3 score. New York (52-63) has lost two in a row — and nine of their last ten — with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Braves crushed the Mets’ bullpen this afternoon to the tune of 16 runs in the 4 1/3 innings that New York used relievers — and some of those guys may need to be called on tonight. Atlanta has now won 24 of their last 30 games against fellow NL East rivals. They have won 19 of their last 25 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 28 of their last 42 games on the road when priced as the favorite at -125 or higher. The Braves have also won 25 of their last 34 games when priced as a -200 or higher favorite — and the number looks even better when taking the Run-Line that we are taking into account (I am saving that for the Final Take). Strider gets the start with his 12-4 record along with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.67 and 2.78 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.69 ERA in 11 starts as opposed to his 4.16 ERA in 12 starts at home. Atlanta has won 7 of their last 8 road games with Strider on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Mets lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .215 batting average, a .303 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .657. New York ranks 26th and 20th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have lost 22 of their last 34 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, they have lost 31 of their last 39 games as a money-line underdog — and they are winless in their last 5 games at home priced as a money-line dog in the +150 to +200 range. They counter with Quintana who has an 0-3 record along with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in his four starts this season that was delayed as he recovered from rib surgery. The sabermetrics indicate he has been fortunate with those frontline numbers given his SIERA and xFIP of 5.01 and 4.95. The left-hander had a 2.93 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP last year for the Pirates and Cardinals — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.02 and 3.72 which contributes to the case that he is not to be trusted. Now he faces a red-hot Braves lineup licking their shops after entering the day scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .315 batting average, a .378 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .858 during that span all before plating 21 runners in Game One. And Atlanta crushes left-handed pitching as they lead MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank second in those categories since July 1st.
FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 62 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 35 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 31 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 22 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Mets have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 6 of the 8 occasions they have been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 (losing all eight times) — and they have lost by more than one run in 4 straight games when priced as a +145 or higher money-line dog. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-23 |
Angels v. Astros -162 |
|
3-11 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (964) versus the Los Angeles Angels (963) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Reid Detmers. THE SITUATION: Houston (66-50) had their three-game winning streak end in a 5-4 loss at Baltimore yesterday. Los Angeles (58-58) has won two games in a row after their 4-1 win against San Francisco yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Angels have won a decisive 73 of their last 108 games after losing their previous contest — including nine of their last ten games after a loss in their last game. They return home where they have won 20 of their last 28 home games with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Verlander gets the start with his 6-6 record along with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home this season between his stints with the New York Mets and now back with the Astros. He enjoys a 2.28 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in nine home starts as opposed to his 4.11 ERA along with a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in eight starts on the road. Additionally, in his 15 starts at home at Minute Maid Park when pitching for Houston last season, he enjoyed a 1.64 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .201. His teams have won 18 of their last 26 home games when he is their starting pitcher and priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces an Angels lineup that has dropped to 18th and 17th in the league since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitching as they continue to await the return of Mike Trout from the injured list. Los Angeles had dropped seven games in a row before winning their last two games. But the Angels have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring less than five runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they have lost 10 of their last 15 games — and they have lost 14 of their last 22 road games priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Detmers who has a 2-8 record along with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 20 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 4.36 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 — but in his eight starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 5.49 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250. The Angels have lost 8 of their last 9 road games with Detmers on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros rank 8th and 7th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Houston Astros (964) versus the Los Angeles Angels (963) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Reid Detmers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-10-23 |
Cardinals v. Rays -172 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-172 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (916) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (915) listing both starting pitchers Zack Littell and Matthew Liberatore. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (69-47) had their two-game winning streak snapped last night in a 6-4 loss at home to the Cardinals. St. Louis (50-65) had lost two games in a row before that victory on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss. They complete this three-game series tonight at Tropicana Field where they have won 36 of their last 54 games at home priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 40 of their last 52 home games when priced as a money-line favorite from -150 to -200. Additionally, the Rays have won 18 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Littell gets the start for this injury-depleted pitching staff for Tampa Bay. The right-hander has a 2-2 record with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP this season after starting the year with Boston before getting picked up by the Rays. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.73 and 3.55 moving forward. St. Louis has not allowed more than four runs in their last four games — but they have then lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. The Cardinals have also lost 41 of their last 59 road games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They counter with Liberatore who has a 1-4 record with a 6.93 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in 10 games and nine starts this season. The left-hander has been barely acceptable when pitching at home where he has a 4.44 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in six appearances — and those numbers skyrocket when he is pitching on the road where he has been saddled with an 11.88 ERA, a 2.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .350 in four starts. St. Louis has lost all 4 of his road starts this season. Frankly, Liberatore would probably be back in the minors working on his skills if not for the Cardinals trading away Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline. Now all St. Louis wants is innings of work as the 23-year-old auditions of next season. FINAL TAKE: The Rays rank fourth and second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. 8* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (916) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (915) listing both starting pitchers Zack Littell and Matthew Liberatore. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-09-23 |
Dodgers -132 v. Diamondbacks |
|
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (66-46) has won three straight games — and seven of their last eight — after their 5-4 victory on the road against the Diamondbacks last night. Arizona (57-57) has lost seven games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is clicking on all cylinders right now — and they should continue building momentum for the postseason tonight. The Dodgers have won 21 of their last 30 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They are feasting on NL West rivals right now after winning three of four over the weekend against San Diego — and they have won 31 of their last 43 games after winning three or more games in a row against division rivals. Los Angeles has also won a decisive 61 of their last 96 games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Miller gets the start looking to build on his 6-2 record along with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.00 and 3.94 moving forward. And while he has struggled at home with a 5.85 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in six starts on the road, he has been very reliable on the road where he owns a 2.61 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in six starts on the road. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 6 games on the road with Miller on the mound. He faces a Diamondbacks team that ranks just 26th and 27th in MLB since July in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Arizona has not scored more than four runs in 11 straight games — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games after not scoring more than four runs in four or more games in a row. They have lost 19 of their last 24 games after losing six or more games in a row. The Diamondbacks have also lost 15 of their last 23 games at home when listed as a money-line underdog. They counter with Kelly who has a 9-5 record along with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 19 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.06 and 3.83 moving forward. The right-hander has a 2.77 ERA in his nine starts on the road — but that mark rises to a 3.60 clip in his ten starts at home. In his last three starts at home, he has a 3.71 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP which is a few clicks below his season numbers and inching closer to those SIERA/xFIP metrics. Arizona has lost 17 of their last 25 games at home with Kelly pitching as a money-line underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers rank first and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB in both categories since the beginning of July. 8* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-09-23 |
Giants v. Angels UNDER 8 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Walker and Shohei Ohtani. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (65-52) has lost three of their last four games after their 7-5 loss on the road against the Angels in the second game of their three-game series. Los Angeles (57-58) snapped a seven-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing their last game. And while they have played three straight games that finished Over the Total, they have then played 24 of their last 37 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Despite this mini-run of Overs, San Francisco has still played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Manager Gabe Kepler is deploying a modified bullpen game tonight that has become in vogue given the new extra inning rules that have all but eliminated the threat of long games where a bevy of relievers would need to be used (and, thus, saved for that possibility). Walker serves as the opener with the expectation that he will pitch through the order for up to three innings. The 27-year-old right-hander has been effective with a 4-1 record with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 28 games which includes seven opening assignments. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 (along with a 2.65 ERA) in 17 innings as compared to his 1.43 WHIP and a .271 opponent’s batting average in 22 1/3 innings at home. He got called up to the majors in mid-June after posting a 0.89 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings while registering 23 strikeouts to just eight walks. In his last five appearances for the Giants, he has allowed only one earned run for a 1.04 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Kapler will then likely turn to either Tristan Beck and/or Sean Manaea to get to his late-inning relievers. Beck is another 27-year-old right-hander who has a 2.72 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 56 1/3 innings pitching out of the bullpen this season. In his last six appearances, he has a 0.60 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP with 12 strikeouts and only three walks in 11 1/3 innings. Manaea struggled earlier in the season — but the veteran left-hander has found his groove as of late in this role by not allowing an earned run in his last four appearances with a 0.52 WHIP, eight strikeouts, and only one walk in 7 2/3 innings. Los Angeles is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .241 batting average, a .274 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .676 during that span. Since May 1st, the Angels rank just 16th and 18th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they are dealing with injuries now including Mike Trout who remains on the shelf. They had scored only seven combined runs in their previous three games before matching that number last night. Los Angeles has played 43 of their last 70 games Under the Total after winning their last game including four of these last five situations. And while the Angels have played two Overs in a row, they have then played 36 of their last 58 games Under the Total after playing two Unders in a row. They have also played 18 of their last 26 home games Under the Total when a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. It’s Ohtani’s turn to do double-duty by taking the mound to build on his 9-5 record along with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 21 starts. Since the organization decided to keep him at the trade deadline and go all-in by adding players to make a playoff run, the right-hander has not allowed a run in his last two starts. In those 13 innings, he has also posted an elite 0.62 WHIP while striking out 12 batters. He has been at his best at home where he sports a 2.97 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in 12 starts as opposed to his 3.81 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in nine road starts. The Angels have played 26 of their last 38 home games Under the Total with Ohtani on the hill pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants rank just 27th and 29th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. In their last seven games, San Francisco is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .219 batting average, a .289 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .615. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Walker and Shohei Ohtani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-08-23 |
Padres v. Mariners -111 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the San Diego Padres (929) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Nick Martinez. THE SITUATION: Seattle (60-52) is on a five-game winning streak after their 3-2 victory in Los Angeles against the Angeles on Sunday. San Diego (55-58) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-7 loss at home to the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mariners were underachieving in the first half of the season — but after posting a nice 17-9 record in July, they started this month with a 5-1 mark. Seattle has now won seven of their last eight and ten of their last 12 contests. They did trade closer Paul Sewald at the trade deadline — but they felt comfortable making that move since they had Andres Munoz waiting in the wings to assume those fireman responsibilities. Munoz has converted all three of his save opportunities since Sewald was shipped to Arizona while allowing just one run in those three appearances. The hard-throwing right-hander with a 100-miles-per-hour four-seamer and wipeout slider (52% whiff rate) has struck out seven batters in those three innings of work. Their victory over the Angels on Sunday was preceded by a 3-2 victory against them on Saturday. The Mariners have won 13 of their last 18 games after winning two games in a row by one run — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row by just one run against an AL West rival. They have also won 16 of their last 24 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home to T-Mobile Park where they have won 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Gilbert gets the ball with a 9-5 record along with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 22 starts. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his good numbers given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 3.82 and 3.79 moving forward. In his six starts since the beginning of July, he has a 3.05 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He has been more effective when pitching at night where he has a 3.45 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in ten starts as opposed to his 4.37 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in 12 starts on the road. Seattle has won 20 of their last 28 games with Gilbert on the mound listed in the +/- 125 money-line price range. San Diego resisted the temptation to punt on their season by trading away players like Josh Hader or Blake Snell at the trade deadline — but they have lost three of their last four games to fall three games under .500. The Padres have lost 23 of their last 34 games on the road after allowing eight or more runs. The Dodgers scored eight runs against them in their six-run loss on Sunday Night Baseball — and San Diego has lost 11 of their last 18 games after allowing seven or more runs in two straight games. They go back on the road where they have lost 19 of their last 25 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 13 of their last 19 games as a road underdog. They counter with Martinez who has a 5-4 record with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 48 appearances including five spot starts. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.94 and 3.91 moving forward. He has been effective at home at Petco Park where he has a 2.57 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in 49 innings — but in his 31 2/3 innings on the road, the right-hander has a 5.40 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .285. Martinez’s teams have lost 19 of their last 25 road games when he is starting with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners rank 12th and ninth in MLB since July in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. In their last seven games, they are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .262 batting average, a .335 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .801. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the San Diego Padres (929) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Nick Martinez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-08-23 |
Cardinals v. Rays -164 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (926) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (925) listing both starting pitchers Zack Eflin and Miles Mikolas. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (68-46) has won five of their last seven games after their 10-6 on the road against Detroit on Sunday. St. Louis (49-64) has lost three of their last four games after a 1-0 loss at home against Colorado on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 8 of their last 12 games after allowing ten or more runs in their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games after a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. They return home where they have won 35 of their last 52 games at home priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Eflin gets the start building on his 12-6 record along with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 21 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.35 and 3.16 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.60 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in 12 starts as opposed to his 4.71 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in nine starts on the road. His teams have won 29 of their last 38 games at home with Eflin on the hill with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. St. Louis has lost 15 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games after a game where no more than three combined runs were scored. The Cardinals go back on the road where they have lost 15 of their last 23 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Mikolas who has a 6-7 record with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 24 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.71 and 4.64 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of a rough .275 in 12 starts — but those numbers rise when on the road where he has a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in 12 starts on the road. St. Louis has lost 6 of their last 9 games on the road with Mikolas on the mound priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175.
FINAL TAKE: The Rays rank ninth and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. 8* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (926) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (925) listing both starting pitchers Zack Eflin and Miles MIkolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-23 |
Royals v. Red Sox -183 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing money-line on the Boston Red Sox (966) versus the Kansas City Royals (965) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Cole Ragans. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-54) has lost four games in a row after their 13-1 loss against Toronto on Sunday. Kansas City (36-77) has lost two games in a row after their 8-4 loss in Philadelphia yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has rebounded to win 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by six or more runs — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing ten or more runs. They have also won 13 of their last 18 games after losing four or more games in a row. They stay at home for this series with the Royals having won 21 of their last 30 home games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Bello gets the ball with an 8-6 record along with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.29 ERA and a .239 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as opposed to his 4.37 ERA and .261 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Red Sox have won 6 of their last 7 games at home with Bello on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Kansas City has lost 51 of their last 75 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 46 of their last 60 games after losing two of their last three games. They stay on the road where they have lost 15 of their last 21 road games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They counter with Ragans who has a 3-3 record this season pitching for Texas and now the Royals after they acquired him in the Aroldis Chapman trade. The left-hander has a 3-3 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP this season. He has been more effective at home where he has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 23 innings — but those numbers rise to a 6.57 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in his 12 1/3 innings on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Royals have lost 24 of their last 30 road games as a money-line underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. 8* MLB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (966) versus the Kansas City Royals (965) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Cole Ragans. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-07-23 |
Marlins v. Reds +1.5 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ER on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Reds (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (955) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Eury Perez. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (59-55) has lost six straight games after their 6-3 loss at home to Washington on Sunday. Miami (58-55) has lost four games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after a 6-0 loss at Texas yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Miami has lost 5 of their last 7 games after getting shutout in their previous contest. They have also lost 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by six or more runs. And in their last 8 games after losing four or more games in a row, they have lost 5 of those games. They are favored tonight because they have called back up their rookie phenom Eury Perez. The right-hander spent most of the last month in Double-A ball resting his arm to extend his season with the organization very mindful about managing his innings. He made two abbreviated starts in the minors — and the plan for him now is to make ten more starts for the rest of the season. He has a 5-3 record with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 11 starts — but the sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.76 and 3.89 moving forward. Perez did his best work at home where he enjoyed a 1.10 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in six starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.35 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .247 in his five starts on the road. The Marlins have lost 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 10 or higher. Cincinnati has won 10 of their last 13 games at home after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They counter with Williamson who has a 3-2 record along with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts. In his last six starts since the beginning of July, he has a 3.60 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has been effective at home where he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in seven starts as opposed to his 5.40 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in seven starts on the road. In his three starts at home last month, the left-hander posted a 2.65 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. He faces a slumping Marlins lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .251 batting average and a .311 on-base percentage. They are scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed pitchers — and they have lost 41 of their last 57 games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: While I think the Reds are in a good position to pull the upset in this one (they have a 28-28 record this season priced as a money-line underdog up to +150), I prefer the valuable +1.5 Run-Line option since it is priced below my -150 threshold. In Cincinnati’s 55 losses this season, they covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 21 of them given their 21 losses by just one run. Five of Miami’s last ten victories have been by just one run. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal is with the Cincinnati Reds (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (955) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Eury Perez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-23 |
Dodgers -108 v. Padres |
|
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) versus the San Diego Padres (910) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (63-46) had their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday in an 8-3 loss on the road to the Padres. San Diego (55-56) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has rebounded to win 31 of their 45 games this season following a loss — and they have won 16 of their 21 games this year after losing by four or more runs. They have also won 17 of their last 24 games after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. The Dodgers have won 37 of their last 58 games on the road with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range — and they have won 15 of their last 24 games on the road when priced in the +/- 125 range. Los Angeles has also won 47 of their last 60 games in August. Lynn gets the start looking to follow up his solid debut with the Dodgers by alloying only three runs and five hits in seven innings of work against Oakland on Tuesday. His 7-9 record with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP is not appealing at first glance. But the Dodgers traded for him because the numbers under the hood look good — his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.90 and 4.05 moving forward. His frontline numbers are hurt by a handful of brutal outings — but the right-hander has also registered starts where he punched out 16 and 11 batters respectively, so his ceiling is high. He faces a Padres team that ranks 22nd and 16th in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 18 of their last 29 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also lost 7 of their last 8 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Furthermore, the Padres have lost 16 of their last 24 games as a money-line underdog — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games a home when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Hill who had a 7-10 record with Pittsburgh with a 7-10 record along with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 22 starts with the Pirates. The soft-throwing left-hander was not as effective at home where he had a 4.83 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 14 starts — but his numbers on the road were not inspiring either given his 4.64 ERA and .262 opponent’s batting average. His WHIP is a flat 1.48 at home and on the road. His teams have lost 6 of their last 8 games when he is making the start in August.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .261 batting average and an .813 OPS in their last seven games. Los Angeles ranks 11th and 12th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) versus the San Diego Padres (910) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-23 |
Dodgers v. Padres OVER 9.5 |
|
8-2 |
Win
|
105 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
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FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 8/6:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers versus the San Diego Padres listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Rich Hill. Los Angeles (63-46) had their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday in an 8-3 loss on the road to the Padres. The Dodgers have played 28 of their last 41 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. They have also played 17 of their last 23 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. San Diego (55-56) has won six of their last eight games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Padres are playing their sixth straight game against an NL West rival tonight — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing three or more divisional rivals in a row. Take the Over listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on an 11 of 18 (61%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after a 1-1 split in the last 24 hours — losing their 25* MLB play on the Arizona/Minnesota Under but rebounding early this morning with Sweden plus the +0.5 goal-line in the Women’s World Cup! Now Frank furthers his 7 of 9 (78%) MLB run with featured plays with tonight’s LA Dodgers-San Diego money-line side winner on ESPN at 7:05 PM ET! CA$H-IN Frank’s Sunday Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!
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08-05-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Twins UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
1-12 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. THE SITUATION: Arizona (57-54) has won lost four straight games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (57-54) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Arizona has scored no more than four runs in eight straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing five straight games where they did not allow more than four runs. They have played 19 of their last 29 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total in Interleague play. Nelson gets the start with his 6-5 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home at Chase Field where he has been saddled with a 8.01 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .356 in ten starts — but he has thrived away from that hitter’s ballpark as he sports a 2.67 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 12 starts on the road. In his last five starts on the road, he owns a 1.87 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP while holding three of his opponents to just one run. The Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Nelson pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Twins lineup that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 batting average, a .283 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .660 during that span. Minnesota has scored three runs or less in four of their last five games — but they have held four straight opponents to three runs or less with three of those opponents only scoring two runs. The Twins have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Maeda who has a 2-6 record along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Those frontline numbers are skewed by one disastrous start at home against the New York Yankees when he gave up ten runs in three innings of work. He went on the injured list after that effort with a tricep injury that kept him on the shelf for two months. Since his return to the mound in June, he has been outstanding with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts. His velocity is back up which has helped him strike out 51 batters in 37 2/3 innings — and he has struck out at least seven batters in four of his last five starts. Maeda has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts — but take away that disaster against the Yankees, he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in three home starts this season. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with Maeda on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: While Arizona ranks ninth and tenth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season — but they have dropped to 17th and 18th in those categories since the beginning of July. The Diamondbacks are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .195 batting average, a .243 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .523 during that span. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-05-23 |
Mets v. Orioles -170 |
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3-7 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (976) versus the New York Mets (975) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Tylor Megill. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (68-42) has won five of their last six games after their 10-3 win against the Orioles last night. New York (50-59) has lost four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore has won 4 of their 6 games this season after winning their last game by six or more runs. They have also won 24 of their last 39 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while the Orioles have not allowed more than four runs in six straight games, they have then won 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than four runs in four or more games in a row. Baltimore has also won 24 of their last 35 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Gibson gets the start with his 10-6 record along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 23 starts this season. He has been in good form lately with a 3.00 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP in his last three starts. The Orioles have won 5 of their last 6 games with Gibson on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. New York has lost 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by six or more runs. They have also lost 9 of their last 10 games after allowing nine or more runs. And in their last 17 games after losing four or five of their last six games, they have lost 12 of these games. They stay on the road where they have lost 21 of their last 26 games as a money-line underdog. They have also lost 21 of their last 30 road games in August. They counter with Megill who is getting called up from the minors to get the start after the Mets traded away Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. He was demoted to Triple-A after posting a 6-4 record but with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he deserved those unappealing numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.39 and 5.19 moving forward. He was solid when pitching at home where he has a 2.79 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts — but he has been saddled with a 7.99 ERA, a 2.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .345 in eight starts.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 4 games in a row with Megill on the mound pitching as a road underdog. 8* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (976) versus the New York Mets (976) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Tylor Megill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-04-23 |
Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8.5 |
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10-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) and the San Diego Padres (910) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-45) has won three games in a row after their 8-2 victory against Oakland on Thursday. San Diego (54-55) has won two games in a row — and five of their last six contests — after their 11-1 win at Colorado on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have beaten their last three opponents by at least four runs — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total after winning three in a row by at least four runs in each contest. And while they have scored at least seven runs in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring five or more runs in three straight games. Los Angeles has also played 32 of their last 50 games on the road Under the Total as a money-line underdog. Miller takes the mound with a 6-2 record this season along with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.94 and 3.88 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.63 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in five starts as opposed to his 5.85 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in six starts at home. He faces a Padres team that ranks 22nd and 16th in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. San Diego has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by four or more runs. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after scoring eight or more runs in their last game. The Padres have also played 34 of their last 53 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Darvish who has an 8-7 record with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 19 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.97 and 3.82 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.24 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in ten starts as compared to his 4.86 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in nine starts on the road. The Padres have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Darvish pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has lost five games in a row against the Dodgers while scoring just two runs in those two contests. The Padres have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from at least two straight losses while not scoring more than two runs in either game. 8* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) and the San Diego Padres (910) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-04-23 |
Mets v. Orioles -141 |
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3-10 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (924) versus the New York Mets (923) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and David Peterson. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (67-42) has won four of their last five games after their 6-1 win at Toronto yesterday. New York (50-58) has lost four of their last five games after their 9-2 loss at Kansas City on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore has won 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. They have not allowed more than four runs in five straight games — and they have won 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than four runs in four or more games in a row. The Orioles have also won 32 of their last 46 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Kremer gets the start with a 10-4 record with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 22 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.32 and 4.35 moving forward. He pitched very well last month with a 2-0 record along with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in five starts in July. Baltimore has won 16 of their last 22 games at home with Kremer their starting pitcher — and they have won 11 of their last 14 games with him on the mound at night. He faces a Mets team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by six or more runs. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after allowing nine or more runs. And in their last 16 games after losing four or five of their last six games, they have lost 11 of these games. They stay on the road where they have lost 20 of their last 25 games as a money-line underdog. They have also lost 21 of their last 30 road games in August. They counter with Peterson who has a 3-7 record with a 5.92 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in 17 games which includes 11 starts. The left-hander has been good at home where he owns a 2.67 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in 27 innings — but in his 35 1/3 innings on the road, those numbers skyrocket to an 8.41 ERA, a 1.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .336. The Mets have lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road with Peterson on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .280 batting average. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (924) versus the New York Mets (923) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and David Peterson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-03-23 |
Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 |
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5-3 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
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At 9:38 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Los Angeles Angels (966) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Shohei Ohtani. THE SITUATION: Seattle (56-52) has won three of their last four games after their 6-3 victory against Boston yesterday. Los Angeles (56-53) has lost four of their last six games after a 12-5 loss at Atlanta on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while they have played three straight Overs, they have then polled 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Woo takes the mound with a 1-3 record along with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.89 and 4.09 moving forward. And while he has been saddled with a 5.85 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in four starts at home, those numbers improve to a 4.34 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in his six starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored. They return home where they have played 17 of their last 27 home games Under the Total as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. They counter with Ohtani coming off an outstanding complete-game one-hit shutout against Detroit in his last start. For the season, the right-hander has a 9-5 record with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.15 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.81 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in nine starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels have played 26 of their last 38 home games Under the Total with Ohtani on the hill priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. 8* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Los Angeles Angels (966) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Shohei Ohtani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-02-23 |
A's v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
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1-10 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Hogan Harris and Tony Gonsolin. THE SITUATION: Oakland (30-78) has lost two games in a row — and five of their last seven — after a 7-3 loss on the road against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (60-45) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games on the road Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Additionally, Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They have also played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +250 price range. Harris gets his sixth start and 13th appearance in a season where he has a 2-5 record along with a 6.07 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. While the left-hander has a 5.35 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 33 2/3 innings when pitching at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 7.15 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 22 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks sixth and fifth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 28 of their last 43 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Dodgers only have a .153 batting average in their last three games — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a three-game stretch where they are not hitting over .200. They stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher — and they have played 5 straight Overs when priced as a -250 to -330 money-line favorite at home. Furthermore, the Dodgers have played 24 of their last 37 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total in Interleague play. Gonsolin gets the start with a 5-4 record along with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.91 and 5.08 moving forward. The Regression Gods have already been doing their thing with the right-hander as he has been saddled with a 6.13 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in his nine starts since the beginning of June. Gonsolin has not been as effective at home this season either where he has a 4.91 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in eight starts as opposed to his 3.49 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in eight starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Gonsolin on the hill priced as a -150 or higher money-line favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Despite their bad record, the A’s have been middle of the pack with their hitting on the road against right-handed pitchers — they rank 18th and 17th this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created in away games against right-handed pitching. And since the beginning of June, Oakland ranks 13th and 12th in MLB on the road against right-handed pitching in those categories. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Hogan Harris and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-02-23 |
Reds v. Cubs OVER 10.5 |
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6-16 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (907) and the Chicago Cubs (908) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Drew Smiley. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (59-50) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 20-9 loss on the road against the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (54-53) has won nine of their last 11 games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 15 or more runs in their last game. They have also played 19 of their last 30 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They give the ball to Williamson who has a 3-2 record with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression for the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.26 and 5.23 moving forward. Williamson has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in seven starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.56 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in six starts on the road. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .305 batting average, a .373 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .919 during that span. Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Cubs have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 10-10.5 range. They counter with Smyly who has an 8-7 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 21 games this season. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.59 and 4.73 moving forward. And while the lefty has a 3.26 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in 11 games on the road, those numbers rise to a 5.94 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in 10 games at home. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total with Smyly on the mound priced at -110 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank third and fifth in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (907) and the Chicago Cubs (908) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Drew Smyly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-01-23 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants +105 |
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3-4 |
Win
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105 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
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At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (960) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (58-49) had won two straight games before their 4-3 loss at home to the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this series. Arizona (57-50) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 11 of their last 18 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. They have also won 20 of their last 33 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also won 18 of their last 26 home games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Cobb gets the start looking to build on his 6-3 record along with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.09 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.63 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in 11 starts on the road. Arizona has only scored ten combined runs in their last four games while playing all four of those games Under the Total. The Diamondbacks have lost 4 of their last 5 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 games after a win by just one run. They counter with Gallen who has an 11-5 record with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he enjoys a 1.96 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 — but those numbers rise to a 4.97 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 11 starts on the road. Arizona has lost 7 of their last 11 games on the road with Gallen on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have been upset in two games in a row to the Diamondbacks with both games being played in San Francisco — but they have won 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge two straight upset losses as a home favorite to their opponent. 8* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (960) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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