06-05-18 |
White Sox v. Twins -164 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (932) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (931) listing both starting pitchers Fernando Romero and Reynaldo Lopez. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (25-30) has won three straight games after their 7-5 win over Cleveland on Sunday. Chicago (18-38) has won two of their last three games with their 6-1 win over the Brewers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota is swinging red-hot bats right now. They are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and a .814 OPS during that span. The Twins have scored seven runs in each of their last three games — and they have won 12 of their last 15 games after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. Minnesota has also won 6 of their last 8 games at home. And in their last 13 games against fellow AL Central opponents, the Twins have won 9 of these games. They give the ball to Romero who is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in six starts this season. The 23-year-old right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.53 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and .194 opponent’s batting average in two starts. He also owns a 0.84 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in two-day starts. He faces a White Sox lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .229 batting average along with a .283 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .691 during that span. Chicago has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a win — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The White Sox have also lost a decisive 43 of their last 58 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Lopez who is 1-4 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 6.00 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in six starts. Chicago has lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Lopez on the hill. Lastly, because Lopez got rocked for seven runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work in his last start, the Twins are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective over the last five seasons. Minnesota has a scorching .592 slugging percentage over their last five games — and home favorites with a slugging percentage of at least .480 over their last five games now facing a starting pitcher that allowed at least seven runs in his last start have covered the -1.5 Run-Line (with that price in the -190 to +175 price range) in 35 of the last 54 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: With the Twins an expensive favorite priced higher than -150, investing in them straight-up violated my informal rule in taking money-line favorites that pricy. But the underlying fundamentals for the Minnesota side of this equation is strong enough to lower the investment price by taking the Twins minus the -1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Tuesday Afternoon Run-Line Rout with the Minnesota Twins (932) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (931) listing both starting pitchers Fernando Romero and Reynaldo Lopez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (29-30) has won four straight games with their 6-1 win over Philadelphia yesterday. Arizona (31-27) has won five of their last six games with their 6-1 win in Miami yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played their last three games Under the Total — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 7.5 range. And in their last 11 opening games to a new series, the Over is 7-2-2. They give the ball to Holland who is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 5.75 ERA in four starts this season. Holland has seen 4 of his last 5 starts against NL West teams finish Over the Total. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .815 OPS over that span. Arizona has played 6 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. They have also seen the Over go 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And while the Diamondbacks have not allowed more than two runs in their last three games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Now Arizona goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Godley who is 5-4 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.81 ERA with a 1.90 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Godley on the mound. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 4.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .341 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .751.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams hitting the ball well right now, expect a high scoring game featuring two vulnerable starting pitchers. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-18 |
Reds v. Padres OVER 7.5 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (913) and the San Diego Padres (914) listen both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Tyson Ross. THE SITUATION: San Diego (26-34) won the second game of this series yesterday over the Reds by an 8-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a victory — and they have also seen the Over go 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after allowing two runs in their last game. San Diego has also played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Ross who is 4-3 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.68 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP in five starts — he has also has been less effective in day games where he owns a 4.32 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in five starts. He faces a Cincinnati team (21-38) that is scoring 4.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a healthy .291 batting average along with a .352 On-Base Percentage and .786 OPS over that span. The Reds have played their last three games Over the Total — and they have then played 15 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after playing their last three games Over the Total. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road overall — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Castillo who is 4-5 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in twelve starts this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 6.49 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in seven starts on the road. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Castillo on the hill. He faces a Padres team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. San Diego has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is installed a low 7.5 for this game which typically anticipates a starting pitcher’s duel — but both Castillo and Ross are overvalued in this situation given the home/road splits. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (913) and the San Diego Padres (914) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Tyson Ross. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-18 |
Indians -145 v. Twins |
|
1-7 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (969) versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (23-30) snapped their three-game losing streak last night in the second game of this series with a 7-4 victory. Cleveland (30-26) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland should bounce-back this afternoon as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Indians have also won 15 of their last 20 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bauer who is 4-3 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 1.97 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Bauer struck out 13 batters in his last start on Sunday — and Cleveland has won 9 of their last 12 games with Bauer pitching on five days of rest. The Twins have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Minnesota has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lynn who is 3-4 with a 5.94 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander has got rocked in his two previous day starts as he has a 10.29 ERA with a 2.43 WHIP. Lynn did pitch well in his last two starts while benefiting from facing two weak offenses in the Royals and Tigers. But now he faces a significant upgrade in offensive firepower with this Indians team that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .312 batting average along with a .358 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .928 over that span. Cleveland has won 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lynn’s teams have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland should bounce-back with a win this afternoon. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (969) versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-18 |
Phillies v. Giants OVER 8 |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-102 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (913) and the San Francisco Giants (914) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Chris Stratton. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (31-23) has won two of their last three games with their 2-1 win in Los Angeles over the Dodgers yesterday. San Francisco (26-30) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 7-4 win in Colorado over the Rockies.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 6-0-1 in the Giants’ last 7 games after a victory — and the Over is also 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 5-1-2 in San Francisco’s last 8 games at home. They give the ball to Stratton who is 6-3 with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.65 ERA along with a 2.00 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Stratton facing a team with a winning record. Additionally, the Over is 4-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total after allowing no more than one run in their last game. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their game. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in Philly’s last 5 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Pivetta who is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 5.82 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average in four starts. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with Pivetta pitching after a victory. He faces a Giants’ team that has seen the Over go 6-2-3 in their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total installed at moderately low 8, expect this final score to finish above that number. 10* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (913) and the San Francisco Giants (914) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Chris Stratton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-18 |
Pirates v. Cardinals -126 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-126 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (906) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: St Louis (29-24) has won four of their last six games with their 10-8 victory over the Pirates yesterday after rallying from an 8-5 deficit in the 9th inning to pullout that victory. Pittsburgh (29-26) has lost five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis allowed four runs in the 8th inning of that game to blow their 5-4 lead before they embarked on their 9th inning comeback. The Cardinals have won 5 of their last 8 games after their bullpen blew a save in their last game — and they have also won 4 of their last 6 games after their bullpen allowed at least four runs in their last game. Furthermore, St. Louis has won 3 of their last 4 games after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. The Cardinals host Game Two tonight where they have won 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also won 30 of their last 42 second games to a new series. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 6-0 with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 1.53 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and .214 opponent’s batting average in four starts. St. Louis has won 4 of their last 5 games with Mikolas facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Pirates team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less — and they have lost 12 of their last 17 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh has lost 22 of their last 30 road games after losing three of their last four contests — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Pirates have lost 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Taillon who is 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 5.47 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and .290 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight road games with Taillon on the hill. He faces a Cardinals team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams who play better much better at home which gives the Cardinals the edge tonight. Mikolas should outpitch Taillon. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (906) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-18 |
Brewers -134 v. White Sox |
|
3-8 |
Loss |
-134 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (929) versus the Chicago White Sox (930) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Hector Santiago. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (36-21) has won five of their last six games — as well as eight of their last ten contests — with their 3-2 win over the Cardinals on Wednesday. Chicago (16-37) has lost four straight games — as well as six of their last seven — with their 9-1 loss in Cleveland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have also won 7 of their last 10 games after an off-day. Now the Brewers go back on the road where they have won 10 of the last 13 road games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Anderson who is 4-3 with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander has been much better on the road where he has a 2.19 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .169 opponent’s batting average in four starts which is not far superior to his 2.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average away from home last year. Milwaukee has won 6 of their last 7 road games with Anderson on the hill. He should pitch well against this slumping White Sox team that is hitting only .227 with an On-Base Percentage of .273 and an OPS of .685 over their last seven games. Chicago has lost 21 of their last 26 games after dropping five or six of their last seven games. They also have lost a decisive 50 of their last 68 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They return home where they have lost 18 of their last 26 games. They counter with Santiago who is 1-2 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in five starts this season. The left-hander has a 5.95 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP in two home starts this year. The White Sox have lost 11 of their last 15 home games with Santiago on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .364 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .797.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox are a mess this year — and a strong Brewers team has a significant edge with Anderson facing off against Santiago. 20* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (929) versus the Chicago White Sox (930) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Hector Santiago. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-18 |
Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) and the St. Louis Cardinals (954) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (29-26) snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with their 2-1 win over the Cubs. St. Louis (29-24) has lost two of their last three games with their 3-2 loss in Milwaukee yesterday. The Cardinals return home to host this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have lost five of their last seven games — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 road games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. And in their last 30 road games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, they have played 21 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Williams who is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.14 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .170 opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Pirates have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Williams on the mound. He faces a Cardinals teams that are scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .239 batting average, .285 On-Base Percentage and .661 OPS over that span. The Under is 5-1-1 in St. Louis’ last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Cardinals have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis (29-24) has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games are a loss. The Cardinals have also seen the Under go 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. St. Louis has also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Flaherty who is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in five starts this season. Flaherty will be making just his second start at home this year after allowing only one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of work against the Phillies earlier this season. In three career starts at home, the right-hander has a 0.89 WHIP and .080 opponent’s batting average. Furthermore, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. He faces a cold-hitting Pirates team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .237 batting average, .266 On-Base Percentage and .656 OPS over that span. The Under is 4-1-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 — and the Under is 33-16-5 in their last 54 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both starting pitchers should dominate against two lineups that are struggling to score points. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) and the St. Louis Cardinals (954) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-18 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (32-22) won the third game of this series on Tuesday with a 7-6 victory over the Mets. The series concludes with a fourth game tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total. They also have played 7 of their last 10 fourth games to a series. They give the ball to Teheran who is 4-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home in the hitter-friendly Sun Trust Park where he has a 5.54 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 3.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .178 opponent’s batting average on the road. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Teheran pitching on grass. Teheran faces a New York team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .290 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .810 over that span. The Mets have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. New York (26-26) saw their bullpen surrender all six runs yesterday — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen gave up at least five runs. Additionally, the Mets have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Vargas who is 1-3 with a 10.62 ERA and a 2.16 WHIP in five starts this season. The left-hander has been a disaster in three road starts where he has a 15.19 ERA with a 2.63 WHIP and .404 opponent’s batting average. Vargas had an 18-11 record with a 4.16 ERA and 1.33 WHIP last year with the Royals — but those numbers were propped up very fortunate BABIP and Left-On-Base rates in the first-half of the season. His ugly 6.38 ERA over the second-half of the season took place after those metrics finally regressed back to the mean. Vargas faces an Atlanta team that scores 6.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .286 batting average, .360 On-Base Percentage and an .818 On-Base Percentage. The Braves also score 5.5 Runs-Per-Game at home — and the Over is 21-8-2 in their last 31 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. Lastly, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games with Vargas making the start.
FINAL TAKE: Vargas has been a mess for almost an entire calendar year while Teheran typically sees home/road splits that favor his being away from the new Sun Trust Park. Expect the hitters to enjoy the advantage for both teams tonight. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-18 |
Astros v. Yankees -1.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
110 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 6:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dallas Keuchel. THE SITUATION: New York (34-17) looks to conclude this series tonight after their 6-5 win over the Astros yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 19 of their last 28 games after a win. This Yankees team has also won 40 of their last 52 games at home — and they have won 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They give the ball to Severino who is 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has been outstanding in six home starts where he boasts a 1.64 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and .178 opponent’s batting average. The Yankees have won 12 of their last 14 home games with Severino facing a team with a winning record. Houston (35-21) has lost three of their last four games — and they have now lost 4 of their last 5 games in Yankee Stadium. The Astros have also lost 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They counter with Keuchel who is 3-6 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eleven starts. The left-hander has not been as effective in six road starts where he has a 1.24 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.10 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average at home. Houston has lost 5 of their last 7 games with Keuchel facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees team that has lost 9 of their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Yankees average 5.7 Runs-Per-Game, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 62% effective over the last five seasons. American League favorites with score at least 5.1 Runs-Per-Game using a starting pitcher with a WHIP no higher than 1.30 facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or lower have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -190 to +175 price range) in 53 of the last 85 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: 10* MLB Astros-Yankees’ Run-Line ESPN Special with the New York Yankees (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-18 |
Reds v. Diamondbacks -109 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) versus the Cincinnati Reds (959) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Luis Castillo. THE SITUATION: Arizona (27-26) had been on a terrible slide losing fifteen of their last seventeen games before returning home yesterday where they defeated the Reds in the opening game of this series by a 12-5 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona should build off yesterday’s game as they have won 34 of their last 51 games after a win by at least four runs. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have won 24 of their last 34 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also won 26 of their last 41 games after winning their last game by at least eight runs. Arizona had been on the road for their previous nine games before finally returning back home yesterday to being this series with the Reds. The Diamondbacks have won 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Godley who is 4-4 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander has pitched six of his last nine starts on the road — as well as his last two — where he has a 5.81 ERA with a 1.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286. But in his four starts at home this season. Golden has a 2.92 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244. He looks to bounce-back from a rough outing last Thursday where he allowed eight runs (six earned) in just 3 1/3 innings of work in Milwaukee — but Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 games with Godley pitching on five days of rest. He should pitch much better against this Reds team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati (19-36) has lost three of their last four games — and they have then lost 29 of their last 34 road games after dropping three of their last four games. The Reds have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They counter with Castillo who is 4-4 with a 5.34 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last five starts. But four of those starts were at home. In his six starts on the road this year, Castillo has a 6.37 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average. Cincinnati has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Castillo facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The money-line price on the Diamondbacks has dropped but this may be an overreaction to Arizona’s recent slide which has much to do with scheduling. Godley is being undervalued back at home with Castillo perhaps overvalued on the road. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) versus the Cincinnati Reds (959) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Luis Castillo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-18 |
Twins -133 v. Royals |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-133 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (22-27) snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with an 8-5 win in Kansas City in the opening game of this series. The Royals (18-36) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games against fellow AL Central opponents. The Twins have also won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% at home. They give the ball to Gibson who is 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.61 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and .129 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 5.76 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and .320 opponent’s batting average when at home. Minnesota has won a decisive 19 of their last 22 road games with Gibson facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Kansas City team that has lost 23 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Royals have also lost 15 of their last 17 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a loss. The Royals have also lost 29 of their last 27 games at home. And in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record, Kansas City has lost 9 of these contests. They counter with Duffy who is 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The left-hander has been even worse at home where he has been saddled with a 6.98 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP and .304 opponent’s batting average in four starts. The Royals have lost 5 straight games at home with Duffy on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Gibson was significantly better on the road last year as well. Duffy has lost the effective he demonstrated last season. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-18 |
Diamondbacks v. A's -127 |
Top |
7-1 |
Loss |
-127 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (980) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Oakland (26-24) has won five of their last seven games with their 4-3 win over the Mariners yesterday. Arizona (25-24) is reeling having lost seven straight games as well as thirteen of their last fourteen contests with their 9-2 loss in Milwaukee on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has won 10 of their last 14 games against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. The A’s have also won 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range with eight of those wins being at home. They give the ball to Manaea who is 5-4 with a 2.71 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in ten starts so far in what appears to be his breakout season. The left-hander has been outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 1.78 ERA with a 0.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .137 in four starts. Oakland has won 5 of their last 7 home games with Manaea facing a team with a winning record. He should fare very well against this slumping Arizona team that has is scoring only 1.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .160 batting average, .228 On-Base Percentage and .505 Slugging Percentage over that span. The Diamondbacks have lost 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Arizona has lost 13 of their last 16 games after a loss. And while they have not scored more than two runs in four straight games, they have then lost 9 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than two runs in at least two straight games. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have lost 7 straight games on the road — and they have also lost 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Corbin who is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in ten starts this season. But while the lefty has a 2.03 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP and .144 opponent’s batting average in six home starts, those numbers rise to a 3.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have lost 9 of their last 11 road games with Corbin facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams moving in opposite directions with the A’s having an advantage with Manaea pitching at home. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (980) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-18 |
Royals v. Cardinals UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 1:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (975) and the St. Louis Cardinals (976) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-33) won the second game of this series last night by a 5-1 score. This three-game series concludes this afternoon in this getaway game in St. Louis (26-20).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They give the ball to Junes who is 5-3 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.70 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average at home. Junis also is performing better in day games where he has a 2.75 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in three starts which all finished Under the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Junis pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Cardinals team that has seen the Under go 11-4-3 in their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. St. Louis has seen the Under go 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after a loss — and the Under is also 20-7-2 in their last 29 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 9-3-2 in the Cardinals’ last 14 home games. They counter with Wacha who is 5-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts this season — and he has not allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.38 ERA in six starts as compared to his 4.60 ERA in three starts on the road. Last year, Wacha enjoyed a 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.97 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Wacha facing a team with a losing record. Wacha was also more effective during day games last year where he sported a 3.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.64 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .275 opponent’s batting average in night games.
FINAL TAKE: Expect both starting pitchers to see success in this afternoon midweek contest. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (975) and the St. Louis Cardinals (976) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-18 |
Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
|
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) while listing both starting pitchers Chad Bettis and Brock Stewart. THE SITUATION: Colorado (26-22) has won three of their last five games with their 2-1 victory last night in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total off a victory — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, Colorado has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Bettis who is 4-1 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective away from Coors Field where he has a 6.89 ERA and 1.66 WHIP as he sees those numbers drop to a 1.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his six starts on the road. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games on the road. He should fare well against this Dodgers team that has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (20-27) has seen the Under go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Dodgers have also played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they scored only one run. They counter with Stewart who will be making the start for Rich Hill who was placed on the disabled list this week. Stewart is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 5 2/3 innings of work with the Dodgers so far this season. Stewart has 68 innings pitched in the majors with 28 of these innings at home where he has a 1.55 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 as compared to his 6.46 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .324 opponent’s batting average when on the road for those remaining 40 innings. LA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home. And Stewart will be facing a Rockies team that has seen the Under go 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The respective personalities of these two teams suggest they tend to play situations like this under the number. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) while listing both starting pitchers Chad Bettis and Brock Stewart. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Brewers -137 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (910) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Matt Koch. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (29-19) has won four of their last five games with their 4-2 victory in the opening game of this series. Arizona (25-22) has lost five straight games as well as eleven of their last twelve contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Diamondbacks are reeling as they have lost 5 straight games after a loss — and they have also lost 4 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has lost 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Koch who is 2-2 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in eight starts this season. But while the right-hander has a 3.46 ERA in six starts at home, his road starts have presented difficulties given his ERA of 5.14. That is not a good sign for this Diamondbacks team that has lost 5 straight games on the road. He faces a Milwaukee team that has won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Brewers have also won 7 of their last 10 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee has won 9 of their last 12 home games overall — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Chacin who is 3-1 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander has been much better after two rough starts to begin the season where he endured a 6.59 ERA. Over his last seven starts, Chacin has a 3-0 record with a 2.58 ERA. He has excelled at home where he sports a 2.04 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in three starts. The Brewers have won 5 of their last 6 games with Chacin on the hill. He faces a slumping Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .164 batting average along with a .229 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .483.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams are moving in opposite directions right now — and the Brewers have the starting pitcher edge with Chacin pitching at home. 20* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (910) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Matt Koch. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-18 |
Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 7 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jake Faria. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-15) has won four of their last five games after their 5-0 win over Baltimore on Sunday. Tampa Bay (22-23) hosts this series after seeing their six-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 5-2 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Sale who is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in ten starts this season. The left-hander has been a bit more effective on the road where he has a 0.83 WHIP and a .182 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 1.09 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average at home. The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sale on the hill. He should pitch better against this Tampa Bay team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .253 batting average, .322 On-Base Percentage and .694 OPS. Furthermore, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Ray’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 3-1-2 in their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a loss. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Faria who is 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander is struggling on the road with an 8.14 ERA and 1.56 WHIP but he has been much better at home where he sports a 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in four starts. The Under is 5-0-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 home games with Faria facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Boston team that sees their team batting average drop to a .253 mark with a .307 On-Base Percentage and .725 OPS when on the road. The Red Sox have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Under is 5-1-1.
FINAL TAKE: Faria usually pitches much better at home — this could end up being a pitching duel with Sale who is a bit more effective away from Fenway Park and it’s Green Monster. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jake Faria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-18 |
Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (927) and the Houston Astros (928) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (22-22) won the second game of this series yesterday with their 5-4 victory over the Astros. The series concludes tonight in Houston for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston (29-18) has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total played at night. They give then ball to McCullers who is 5-2 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home as compared to his 4.36 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with McCullers facing a team with a losing record. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Under go 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland stranded three baserunners last night — and they have then played 16 of their last 26 games Under the Total after stranded three or fewer runners in their last game. The Indians have also played a decisive 47 of their last 38 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Carrasco who is 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been very tough on the road where he sports a 2.78 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 5.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Indians’ last 16 road games with Carrasco on the mound. He faces an Astros team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 19-7-1 in Houston’s last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: Expect a pitcher’s duel between Carrasco and McCullers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (927) and the Houston Astros (928) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-18 |
Tigers v. Mariners -1.5 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (978) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (977) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Mike Fiers. THE SITUATION: Seattle (25-19) won the second game of this series last night with their 5-4 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Mariners snapped a two-game losing streak with that win last night — and they have then won 10 of their last 13 games after dropping two of their last three games. Seattle’s bullpen did not allow an earned run last night — and they have then won 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing an earned run in their last contest. Additionally, the Mariners have won 7 of the last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they have won 17 of their last 26 games played at night. They give the ball to Paxton who is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. Over his last three starts, the left-hander has a 1.23 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP with a 27:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22 innings of work. Paxton also thrives at night where he has a 2.25 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in five starts this year. Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games at night with Paxton on the mound. He should fare well against this Tigers team that has lost 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Detroit (20-24) has not hit a home run in three straight games — and they have lost 27 of their last 37 games after failing to hit a home run in at least two straight games. The Tigers have also lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have lost 21 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Fires who is 4-2 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in seven starts so far with the Tigers. His SIERA and xFIP suggest he is overvalued with those sabermetrics predicting a 4.47 and 4.74 ERA respectively moving forward. Furthermore, Fires’ teams have lost 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Mariners team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Tigers have a team batting average of .259, they fall into an empirical “play-against” angle that has been 60% effective over the last five seasons. Road teams with a team batting average no better than .260 facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.60 or lower on a Saturday have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 90 of the last 151 situations where these conditions applied.
CONCLUSION: With Seattle a big money-line favorite priced in the -260 range, the better value play is to reduce the investment price by laying the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Month is with the Seattle Mariners (978) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (977) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Mike Fiers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-18 |
Brewers +1.5 v. Twins |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (929) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (930) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Brent Suter. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (26-18) has won five of their last seven games with their 8-2 win in Arizona yesterday. Minnesota (18-25) has lost three of their last four contests with their 7-05 loss to St. Louis on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Milwaukee has stranded three and five baserunners over their last two games — and they have then won 12 of their last 17 games after stranding less than five runners in two straight games. The Brewers have also won 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Suter who is 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in seven starts this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 4.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 5.82 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .308 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last season where Suter had a 2.86 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP on the road as compared to his 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .264 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Brewers have also won 5 of their last 6 games with Suter facing a team that scored at least five runs in their last game. Minnesota (18-25) has lost 5 straight games after an off day. They stay at home where they have lost 5 of their last 7 games — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Gibson who is 1-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in eight starts this season. But the right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.27 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and .322 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 2.61 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .129 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Last year, Gibson had a 5.72 ERA along with a 1.66 WHIP and .313 opponent’s batting average at home versus a 4.34 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Twins have lost 5 of their last 7 home games with Gibson facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Brewers team that has won 19 of their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: While Gibson has improved going back to his last eight starts last season, he has consistently not been as good when at home. The Brewers can easily win this game but with them priced below the -150 threshold when getting the valuable +1.5 runs, the Run-Line play offers more value. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Milwaukee Brewers (929) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (930) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Brent Suter. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-18 |
Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Dan Straily and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Miami (16-26) begins this series coming off a 7-0 loss to the Dodgers yesterday. Atlanta (26-16) comes off a 5-1 win over the Cubs on Wednesday and stay home to host this NL East series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins managed only four hits in their last game — and they have played 9 straight games Over the Total after not managing at least five hits in their last contest. Miami has also played 28 of their last 40 games Over the Total on the road after a loss by at least four goals. Additionally, the Marlins have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as a road dog priced at least at +150 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Straily who is 1-0 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in three starts this season. Last year, the right-hander had a 4.95 ERA with a .259 opponent’s batting average on the road which was worse than their 3.57 ERA and .254 opponent’s batting average at home. The Over is 3-1-1 in Miami’s last 5 road games with Straily on the mound. The Over is 8-1-3 in the Marlins’ last 12 games with Straily facing a fellow NL East opponent. He faces a Braves team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game who have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Atlanta has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored priced at -110 or higher. The Braves have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Newcomb who is 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in eight starts this season. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 6.10 ERA along with a 1.74 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average in two starts as compared to his 1.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .164 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Newcomb had a 3.89 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average on the road but he saw those numbers rise to a 4.57 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .278 opponent’s batting average when at home. He faces an improving Marlins lineup that is scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: Both these starting pitchers will likely struggle tonight in the hitter-friendly Sun Trust Park in Atlanta. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Dan Straily and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-18 |
Padres v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (903) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) listing both starting pitchers Tyson Ross and Ivan Nova. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (26-17) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have won eight of their last nine games — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Pittsburgh has also played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total in the second game of a series. The Pirates have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Nova who is 2-3 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.26 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 5.46 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .306 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Pittsburgh has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with Nova pitching at home. He faces a Padres team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (17-28) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-1-1 in the Padres’ last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They counter with Ross who is 2-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight starts this season. The left-hander has been better on the road in four starts where he has a 1.06 WHIP and .184 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.25 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average at home. Ross’ teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road.
CONCLUSION: The sabermetrics for both these starting pitchers suggest they are undervalued given the Ross and Nova’s respective xFIP’s of 3.38 and 3.85. The value is with the Under. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (903) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) listing both starting pitchers Tyson Ross and Ivan Nova. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-18 |
Rockies +130 v. Giants |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
130 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (959) versus the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Chad Bettis and Jeff Samardzija. THE SITUATION: Colorado (23-20) takes the field again after an off-day following their 4-0 shutout loss in San Diego to the Padres on Tuesday. San Francisco (22-22) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 6-3 loss to Cincinnati.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Giants have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. San Francisco has also lost 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Samardzija who is 1-2 with an 8.31 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP in five starts this season after starting the year on the disabled list with a pectoral injury. The right-hander has been pummeled at home in AT&T Park where he has been saddled with an 8.31 ERA along with a 2.19 WHIP and .342 opponent’s batting average. He allowed a career-high 1.3 Home Runs per 9 innings pitched last year — and he has already surrendered five homers in the 23 21/3 innings he has thrown this year for a rough 1.93 Home Runs per 9 innings rate. He has also issued 15 walks for a terrible 13.6% wake rate after posting a career-low 3.8% walk rate last season. The Giants have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Samardzija facing a team with a winning record — and they have also lost 9 of their last 13 home games with Samardzija facing a team with a winning record. The Giants have also lost 4 of the last 5 games with Samardzija facing the Rockies. He will likely struggle again against this Rockies team that has won 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has won 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day. The Rockies have also won 6 of their last 7 games on the road to bolster their 16-9 mark away from Coors Field this season. And while they only stranded three runners on Tuesday against the Padres, they have then won 14 of their last 15 games after not leaving more than three runners on base in their last game. They counter with Bettis who is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has been very good when away from Coors as he has a 1.35 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and .197 opponent’s batting average in five road starts. Colorado has won 4 of their last 5 road games with Bettis on the bump. Lastly, the Rockies are live dogs tonight who have won 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog priced at +100 or higher.
CONCLUSION: Bettis should outpitch the struggling Samardzija for this Rockies team that plays much better on the road. 25* MLB Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (959) versus the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Chad Bettis and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-18 |
Tigers v. Mariners OVER 8 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (967) and the Seattle Mariners (968) listing both starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Marco Gonzales. THE SITUATION: Detroit (19-23) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 6-0 loss to the Indians. Seattle (24-18) enter this game coming off a 5-1 win over the Rangers yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners are swing hot bats right now as they are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .281 batting average along with a .341 On-Base Percentage and .779 OPS over that span. Seattle has played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They stay at home where the Over is 27-9-1 in their last 37 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Mariners have also played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total at home as a favorite priced in the -175 to -250 range. They give the ball to Gonzales who is 3-3 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in eight starts this season. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 7.07 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .333 opponent’s batting average in three starts. Seattle has played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Gonzales on the mound. He faces this Tigers team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers while posting a .314 batting average with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an .840 OPS. Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 4-1-1 in the Tigers’ last 6 games against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Boyd who is 2-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in seven starts this season. The lefty has struggled on the road where he has a 4.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .186 opponent’s batting average in four home starts. Boyd faced this Mariners team in his last start where he allowed three earned runs in 6 innings of work — but the Tigers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Boyd looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Mariners team that has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.
CONCLUSION: Both lineups should be comfortable tonight — expect plenty of runs. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (967) and the Seattle Mariners (968) listing both starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Marco Gonzales. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-18 |
Padres v. Pirates -137 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) versus the San Diego Padres (953) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Eric Lauer. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (25-17) has won seven of their last eight games with their 3-2 win over the White Sox on Wednesday. San Diego (17-27) has won three of their last four games with a 4-0 win over the Rockies on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 6 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They also have lost 25 of their last 33 games after winning three of their last four games. The Pirates have also won 6 straight games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They stay at home where they have won 19 of their last 26 games. They give the ball to Kuhl who is 4-2 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home this year where he has a 3.52 ERA and .256 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to a 4.84 ERA and .273 opponent’s batting average on the road. Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 6 home games with Kuhl on the mound. San Diego has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a win — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games after an off day. They counter with their rookie Lauer who is 1-2 with an 8.27 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in four starts this season. The 22-year old left-hander has been rocked in his first two career starts on the road where he has been saddled with a 10.13 ERA and a 2.38 WHIP. That is not a good sign for this Padres team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record. Lauer faces a Pirates team that has won 4 of their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
CONCLUSION: Kuhl should outpitch Lauer behind a better team with home-field advantage. 20* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) versus the San Diego Padres (953) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Eric Lauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-18 |
A's v. Red Sox OVER 8 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Oakland (21-21) won the second game of this series last night with their 5-3 victory in Boston.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Oakland has also played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total as a big underdog priced in the +175 to +200 price range. They send out Cahill who is coming off the 10-day disabled list exactly ten days after going on the DL — and his teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total when he was pitching with at least ten days between starts. The right-hander has a 1-1 record with a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts — but he has a 4.91 ERA in two starts on the road while not yet allowing an earned run in his two starts at home. Last year, Cahill had an awful 7.07 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and .320 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road in his stints with Kansas City and San Diego. The Over is 3-0-1 in Cahill’s last 4 road starts. He faces a strong hitting team in Fenway Park as Boston is scoring 6.5 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .287 batting average along with a .804 OPS. The Over is 9-3-1 in the Red Sox’s last 13 home games against teams against a right-handed starting pitcher. Boston (28-14) has played 12 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Red Sox have also played 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Sale who is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home with the Green Monster looming in left-field with his 1.06 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 0.83 WHIP and .182 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Sale had a 2.17 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average on the road with those numbers all rising to a 3.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average at home. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Sale on the hill. Lastly, the Over is 26-8-2 in the A’s last 36 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
CONCLUSION: The Red Sox should pound Cahill while Sale should give up a few runs on his end of things. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-18 |
Rangers v. Mariners -127 |
|
8-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (970) versus the Texas Rangers (969) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Mike Minor. THE SITUATION: Texas (16-26) has lost six of their last nine games with their 6-1 loss at Houston last night for their second straight loss to the Astros over the last two days by that exact same score. Seattle (23-17) hosts this series after winning their one-off last night in Minnesota which they won by a 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE SEATTLE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mariners have won 6 straight games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. Seattle returns home for the first time since May 6th — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after playing at least five straight road games. The Mariners have also won 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Leake who is 4-3 with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has pitched better as of late as he has a 3.66 ERA in 12 1/3 innings over his last two starts. He should continue to pitch well against this Rangers team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Texas (16-26) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Rangers have also lost 12 of their last 13 games after losing their last two games by at least four runs. Texas has also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They counter with Minor who is 3-2 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in seven starts this season. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .311 opponent’s batting average in two stats. These two teams last met on April 22nd where the Rangers won by a 7-4 score — and Seattle has won 16 of their last 22 games when playing with revenge.
CONCLUSION: The Mariners are the better team and have the edge in starting pitching tonight making them worth their price. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (970) versus the Texas Rangers (969) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Mike Minor. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-18 |
Cardinals v. Twins -114 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (980) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (979) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (17-20) has lost two straight games after suffering a 1-0 loss to Seattle in a one-off contest. St. Louis (22-16) has lost two in a row after falling in San Diego to the Padres on Sunday by a 5-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Cardinals begin this series in pretty rough shape. They are hitting only .224 over their last five games — and they have lost 17 of their last 24 games after posting no better than a .225 batting average over their last five games. Their bullpen has been overworked as of late as well as they have logged in 11 2/3 innings over their last two games as well as 15 2/3 innings in their last three games. St. Louis has lost 6 straight games after requiring their bullpen to pitch at least 9 innings in their last two games — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after their bullpen pitched at least 13 innings in their last three games. The Cardinals have also lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have also lost 7 of their last 10 road games in Interleague play. They called up their young phenom in Flaherty who is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in two starts this season. Walks have been a big concern for the right-hander ever since he was promoted to Triple-A last June after posting a great 4.6% walk rate in Double-A. That walk rate rose to a 7.1% rate in Triple-A then skyrocketed to an ugly 10.6% mark in his 21 1/3 innings with the Cardinals last September. Flaherty has walked 12.2% of his batters in his two MLB starts this year — so this remains an issue. St. Louis has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Flaherty making the start. He faces a Twins team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 8 games after a game where no more than two combined runs were scored. The Twins have also won 14 of their last 17 games in Interleague play. They counter with Berrios who is 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has been much better at home where he has a 3.74 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and .210 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 5.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. Minnesota has won 10 of their last 12 games with Berrios pitching at home. Lastly, the Cardinals have lost 35 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
CONCLUSION: Berrios was similar to Flaherty to start the 2017 season in that he had mastered the minor leagues but was still struggling in making the jump to the big league. A year later, Berrios is comfortable and confident after his 14-8 campaign last year with a 3.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Twins have the edge in this nationally televised game. 10* MLB St. Louis-Minnesota FS1 Special with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (980) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (979) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-18 |
Rockies -103 v. Padres |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-103 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 3:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (951) versus the San Diego Padres (952) while listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Jordan Lyles. THE SITUATION: Colorado (23-19) won the opening game of this series yesterday with their 6-4 victory. The Rockies have won two of their last three games while the Padres have lost five of their last eight games to set up this afternoon tilt.
REASONS TO TAKE COLORADO WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Rockies should build off their momentum as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 21 of their last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Colorado has also won 6 straight games on the road. They give the ball to Marquez who is 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in eight starts this season. The left-hander has been much better away from Coors Field as he sports a 1.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. The Rockies have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Marquez on the mound. San Diego (16-27) has lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Padres have also lost 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lyles who is 0-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings of work consisting of 14 appearances with just one start. The sabermetrics call for regression given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 3.93 and 4.45 moving forward. Lyles started 2017 with the Padres before moving to Colorado and returning to San Diego in the offseason. The journeyman has seen his team lose their last four games when he is making the start.
CONCLUSION: Colorado is the better team and Marquez is the better starting pitcher — making this a nice value situation with the Rockies just a small money-line favorite. 10* MLB Tuesday Afternoon Matinee with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (951) versus the San Diego Padres (952) while listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Jordan Lyles. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-18 |
Astros v. Angels +1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Angels (914) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (913) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Lance McCullers. THE SITUATION: Houston (26-16) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 6-1 win over the Rangers yesterday. Los Angeles (24-16) enters this series coming off a 2-1 win over the Twins.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Astros have not allowed more than three runs in seven straight games — but they have then lost 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing at least four runs in six straight games. Houston has also lost 5 of their last 8 games when a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to McCullers who is 5-1 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.67 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where McCullers had a 5.14 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 3.04 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average at home. Houston has lost 4 straight opening games to a new series with McCullers on the mound. McCullers last pitched on May 8th — and the Astros have lost 18 of their last 29 games when he is pitching with five or six days of rest. The Angels have won 7 of their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 22 of their last 29 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They counter with Heaney who is 1-2 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts this year. The left-hander’s sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.69 and 3.34 moving forward. He should keep the Angels close at home where they have won 5 of their last 7 games. Lastly, because Heaney is averaging 5.8 strikeouts per start, Los Angeles is supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 66% effective since 1997. The Angels have a .260 team batting average — and American League teams with a batting average no better than .260 using a starting pitcher who strikes out at least five batters per start have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 364 of the last 556 situations where these conditions applied.
CONCLUSION: McCullers remains overvalued when pitching away from Minute Maid Park. With the Run-Line listed in the -150 range for the Angels as a dog, it is worth the price. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Angels (914) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (913) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-18 |
Mariners v. Twins OVER 9.5 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (915) and the Minnesota Twins (916) listing both starting pitchers Wade LeBlanc and Jake Odorizzi. THE SITUATION: Seattle (22-17) enters this game coming off a 5-4 loss in Detroit yesterday. Minnesota (17-19) returns home after a 2-1 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road. The Over is also 11-5-2 in Seattle’s last 18 games on the road against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to LeBlanc who is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in one start and 22 2/3 innings of work overall. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.94 and 4.47 moving forward. The left-hander struggled on the road last year with a 5.04 ERA along with a 1.35 WHIP. LeBlanc’s teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when he is making the start on grass. He faces a Twins team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss. They have also played 4 straight Overs after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They return home for the first time since May 2nd — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. They counter with Odorizzi who is 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 1.41 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in three home starts as compared to his 1.26 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. With a SIERA and xFIP of 4.96 and 5.18 respectively, the sabermetrics predict regression. He faces a Mariners team that has seen the Over go 20-7-2 in their last 29 games against right-handed starting pitchers — including five of their last six road games against right-handed starters.
CONCLUSION: With two subpar starting pitchers, expect a higher-scoring game between these two teams that tends to see Overs in situations like this. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (915) and the Minnesota Twins (916) listing both starting pitchers Wade LeBlanc and Jake Odorizzi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-18 |
Rays v. Royals -103 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (908) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (907) listing both starting pitchers Eric Skoglund and Ryan Yarbrough. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (16-22) has lost six of their last seven games with their 17-1 loss in Baltimore yesterday. Kansas City (13-27) has lost four of their last five games after suffering an 11-2 loss in Cleveland yesterday. The Royals return home to host this three-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE KANSAS CITY WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Royals should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. Kansas City has also won 5 of their last 6 games at home in Kauffman Stadium. They give the ball to Skoglund who is 1-2 with a rough 6.34 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in six starts this season. The sabermetrics call for significant improvement as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.32 and 4.63 moving forward given his peripheral numbers so far this season. He should fare well against this Rays team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Tampa Bay has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. Additionally, not only have the Rays lost 11 of their last 13 games after scoring two runs in their last game but they have lost 7 straight games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. Tampa Bay has also lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They give another spot start to Yarbrough who is 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in two starts and nine appearances spanning 29 1/3 innings of work. But he faces a hot-hitting Royals team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while posting a .307 batting average with a .351 On-Base Percentage and a .793 OPS over that span. Kansas City has also won 6 of their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: While Skoglund is not an ace, he is undervalued right now and will be supported by a hot offense that should play better back at home. 10* MLB Tampa Bay-Kansas City ESPN Special with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (908) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (907) listing both starting pitchers Eric Skoglund and Ryan Yarbrough. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-18 |
Nationals v. Diamondbacks -119 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-119 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Diamondbacks (964) versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Jeremy Hellickson. THE SITUATION: Washington (23-18) has won the first three games of this series — as well as twelve of their last fourteen games — with their 3-1 victory over the Diamondbacks. Arizona has dropped four in a row as well as their four encounters with the Nationals.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has only scored three runs in this series which is a big reason all three games in this series have finished Under the Total — but the Diamondbacks have then won 6 of their last 8 games after playing at least three straight Unders. The silver lining for this team is that their bullpen has not allowed an earned run in the last two games — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games when their bullpen is unscathed for at least two days. And while the Nationals are now 13-8 on the road this year, Arizona has still won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They turn to Godley who is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has been much better at home where he sees his ERA drop to a 1.96 mark with a 1.09 WHIP. Last year, Godley had a 1.03 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 1.25 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Diamondbacks have won 7 of their last 8 home games with Godley on the hill. Arizona has also won 16 of their last 20 home games when playing with double-revenge — and they have won 15 of their last 21 games against opponents who have beaten them at least four times in a row. Washington has lost 12 of their last 18 games after allowing no more than one run in at least two straight games. And while the Nats have not allowed more than two runs in five straight games, they have then lost 9 of their last 12 game safer allowing three runs or less in five straight games. This is Washington’s seventh game in a row on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after playing at least five in a row on the road. They counter with Hellickson who is 1-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run in two straight starts — but his sabermetrics suggests that he should be performing closer to ERA levels of 3.80 and 3.60 according to his SIERA and xFIP. He had a 5.43 ERA last year in his stints with the Phillies and the Orioles. Furthermore, Hellickson’s teams have lost 14 of their last 20 games after allowing one or less earned run in two straight starts.
CONCLUSION: Although Washington is streaking, momentum only lasts as long as the next starting pitcher. The Diamondbacks are a good team that wants to avoid being swept after losing their first series of the year with yesterday’s loss. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Arizona Diamondbacks (964) versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Jeremy Hellickson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-18 |
Giants v. Pirates -149 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-149 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) versus the San Francisco Giants (955) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (23-16) has won five straight games with their 6-5 victory over the Giants last night. San Francisco (19-21) has now dropped six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh should continue to build off their momentum — they have won 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Pirates have also won 16 of their last 21 games at home. They give the ball to Nova who is 2-2 with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.38 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average in two starts as compared to his 5.46 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .306 opponent’s batting average in six road starts. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last season where Nova had a 2.80 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .270 opponent’s batting average at home but a 5.02 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average on the road. Pittsburgh has won 6 straight home games with Nova facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Giants team that has lost 6 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco has lost 5 straight games after a loss — and they have also lost a decisive 37 of their last 54 games on the road. They counter with Holland who is 1-4 with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in seven starts this season. The left-hander has been worse on the road where he has a 1.35 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 1.12 WHIP and .196 opponent’s batting average at home. Holland was torched on the road last year with White Sox where he had a 7.17 ERA with a 1.75 WHIP and .309 opponent’s batting average. The Giants have lost 4 straight road games with Holland on the hill. Lastly, the Pirates have won 5 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: These two teams are moving in the opposite directions — and the Pirates have a big edge with Nova on the bump. 20* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) versus the San Francisco Giants (955) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-18 |
Braves -139 v. Marlins |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (951) versus the Miami Marlins (952) listing both starting pitchers Sean Newcomb and Jose Urena. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (23-15) has won four of their last five games with their 10-5 win over the Marlins yesterday. Miami (14-25) has now lost five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has won 6 of their last 8 games after a victory. The Braves have also won 9 of their last 10 games on the road. They send out Newcomb who is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.78 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and .182 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 6.10 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average in two starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where Newcomb had a 3.89 ERA and .229 opponent’s batting average on the road but a 4.5 ERA and .278 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Braves have won 4 of their last 5 road games with Newcomb on the hill. He should fare well against this Marlins team that has lost 5 of their last 6 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Miami has lost 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Marlins have also lost 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Urena who is 0-5 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 1.29 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in six starts versus his 1.26 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average in two starts at home. Last year, Urena had a 1.39 WHIP and .271 opponent’s batting average at home versus a 1.14 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average at home. Miami has lost 23 of their last 31 home games with Urena on the hill including losing six straight home games with Urena facing a team with a winning record.
CONCLUSION: These two teams are moving in opposite directions — and the Braves have the pitching edge this afternoon. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (951) versus the Miami Marlins (952) listing both starting pitchers Sean Newcomb and Jose Urena. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-18 |
Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 11 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (909) and the Colorado Rockies (910) listing both starting pitchers Brent Suter and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (23-16) pulled out an 11-10 victory in 10 innings last night. The Brewers had planned to use Chase Anderson as their starting pitcher tonight but his illness has them using Suter a day earlier than planned.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 36-15-1 in Milwaukee’s last 52 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers have also played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee has also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total as the underdog. Suter is 2-2 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been better on the road where he has a 3.52 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .241 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 5.82 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .308 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. The Brewers have played their last 5 games Under the Total with Suter facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Rockies team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Colorado (21-18) has seen the Under go 37-15-1 in their last 53 games after a loss — and the Under is also 15-6-1 in their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Rockies have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home at Coors Field. They counter with Freeland who is 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been better in his two starts at home where he enjoys a 2.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Colorado has played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total with Freeland on the hill. Lastly, in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Colorado, the game finished Under the Total 7 times.
CONCLUSION: Despite the pitching change to Suter, this game should be another low-scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (909) and the Colorado Rockies (910) listing both starting pitchers Brent Suter and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-12-18 |
Giants v. Pirates -129 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) versus the San Francisco Giants (905) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Jeff Samardzija. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (22-16) has now won four games in a row with their 11-2 last night in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE PITTSBURGH WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Pirates have now won 6 straight games at home — and they have won 10 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Kuhl tonight who is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in seven starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .273 opponent’s batting average in four road starts. Pittsburgh has won 8 of their last 10 home games with Kuhl on the hill. He should fare well against this Giants team that has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco (19-20) has lost 5 straight games against teams with a winning record They also have lost 7 of their last 9 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Samardzija who is 1-2 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in four starts this season after starting the year on the disabled list with a pectoral injury. Last year, the right-hander had a 4.81 ERA on the road which was much higher than his 3.97 ERA when at home. He allowed a career-high 1.3 Home Runs per 9 innings pitched last year — and he has already surrendered three homers in the 17 2/3 innings he has thrown this year. He has also issued 13 walks after posting a career-high 3.8% walk rate last season. The Giants have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Samardzija facing a team with a winning record. Lastly, the Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: Pittsburgh is playing better baseball right now and has the starting pitcher edge tonight. 25* MLB National League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) versus the San Francisco Giants (905) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-18 |
Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (902) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Troy Scribner. THE SITUATION: Washington (22-18) has won the first two games of this series — as well as five of their last six contests — with their 3-1 win over the Diamondbacks yesterday. Game Three goes this afternoon as a nationally televised affair on Fox Sports 1.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL. The Nationals have seen the Under go 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a victory. And while Washington has not allowed more than two runs in four straight games, they have then seen the Under go 17-6-3 in their last 26 games after allowing two runs or less in three straight games. They give the ball to Strasburg who is 4-3 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has seen his ERA drop to a 2.66 mark in three starts on the road and that is consistent with last season where he had a 2.26 ERA on the road versus a 2.75 ERA at home. The Nationals have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Strasburg on the mound. He should fare very well against this struggling Arizona (24-14) lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .191 batting average, .265 On-Base Percentage and a .592 OPS over that span. The Diamondbacks have played 5 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The Under is 4-0-1 in Arizona’s last 5 games after a loss — and the Under is now 18-7-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 27 games at home. They counter with Troy Scribner who was called up from Triple-A to make this start. The right-hander pitched 23 1/3 innings in the big leagues last year where he had a 2-1 record with a 4.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP — and he was a bit more effective at home where he made four starts for Arizona posting a 4.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .175. He faces a Washington team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .219 batting average, .299 On-Base Percentage and .663 OPS over that span. Lastly, the Under is 24-11-3 in the Nationals’ last 38 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher . Together, these team trends produce our specific 141-59-16 combined angle for this situation.
CONCLUSION: Expect another low-scoring between these two teams wielding cold bats. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (902) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Troy Scribner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-18 |
Twins v. Angels OVER 7.5 |
|
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (15-18) saw their five-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 7-4 loss in the opening game of this series. Los Angeles (23-14) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine entering Game Two of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Twins have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Over is 10-1-1 in Minnesota’s last 12 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. They send out Lynn who is 1-3 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in six starts this season. The transition to the American League has been tough on the right-hander — and he has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with an 8.24 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .321. Lynn has seen his last 4 starts on the road finish Over the Total. He faces an Angels team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 second games to a series Over the Total. The Angels have also played 12 of their last 15 home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Los Angeles has also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total when a favorite priced in the -125 to -175 price range. They counter with Skaggs who is 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in seven starts this season. The lefty has not been as good at home where he has a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three starts as compared to his 1.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in four road starts. The Angels have played 5 of their last 7 home games with Skaggs on the hill Over the Total. And in the Twins’ last 6 road games against left-handed starting pitchers, the Over is 4-1-1. Together, these team trends produce our specific 94-33-2 combined angle for this situation.
CONCLUSION: The Total opened at 8.5 but has dropped to 7.5 in most spots which makes this Over play offer us some nice value. 20* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-18 |
Royals v. Indians -1.5 |
|
10-9 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (971) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Jason Hammel. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (18-18) snapped their four-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 6-2 win in Milwaukee. Kansas City (12-25) has lost their last two games after their 11-6 loss in Baltimore last night.
REASONS TO TAKE CLEVELAND MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Indians return home where they have won 7 of their last 9 games. Cleveland has also won 38 of their last 53 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They give the ball to Bauer who is 2-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in seven starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.91 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .173 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 3.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .188 opponent’s batting average in three starts on the road. The Indians have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Bauer on the hill. He should fare well against this Royals team that has lost 6 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has lost 15 of their last 20 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Royals have also lost 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Kansas City has also lost 10 of their last 14 games on the road. They counter with Hammel who is 0-4 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has a 3.86 ERA at home this year but he sees that mark escalate to a 5.47 ERA in four starts on the road. Last year, Hammel had a 5.67 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and .304 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to a 4.94 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .264 opponent’s batting average at home. The Royals have lost 6 straight road games with Hammel on the hill. Lastly, while these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we will be laying in this game, the Indians are supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 75% effective since 1997. Cleveland scores 4.6 Runs-Per-Game — and teams that score 4.4 to 4.9 Runs-Per-Game coming off a win by at least four runs now facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4.70 to 5.70 range have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line (when that proposition is priced in the -120 to +115 price range) in 33 of the last 44 situations where these conditions applied since 1997.
CONCLUSION: Rather than risking the heavy money-line price in the -240 range, lower that cost by taking the Indians with -1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Run-Line Rout with the Cleveland Indians (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (971) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Jason Hammel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-18 |
Mets v. Phillies -149 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-149 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (952) versus the New York Mets (952) while listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Steven Matzo. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (22-15) comes off a 6-3 win over the Giants yesterday to complete that four-game sweep where they scored 32 runs. New York (18-17) has lost two straight as well as eight of their last nine games after their 2-1 loss in Cincinnati on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won 13 of their last 17 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Phillies have also won 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Arrieta who is 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in six starts. The right-hander has been more effective in his new home in Philly as he has a 1.50 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP and .133 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.96 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average in three starts on the road.
|
05-10-18 |
Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (907) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Washington (20-18) snapped their two-game losing streak yesterday with a 2-1 win in San Diego. Arizona (24-12) looks to bounce-back from a 6-3 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and the Under is 23-11-2 in their last 36 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 6-1-1 in Washington’s last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They give the ball to Roark who is 2-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has been better on the road with a 3.15 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .171 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 4.26 ERA and .241 opponent’s batting average on the road versus a 5.04 ERA and .265 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Nationals’ last 9 road games with Roark on the mound. He should pitch well against this Diamondbacks team that has played 7 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Arizona has seen the Under go 15-5-2 in their last 22 games at home. And while the Diamondbacks have not committed an error in two straight games — as well as six of their last seven — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after not committing an error in two straight games. They counter with Greinke who is 3-2 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has been very tough at home where he enjoys a 1.85 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 7.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .324 opponent’ batting average. These splits are consistent with last season where he had a 2.87 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average at home versus a 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Greinke on the hill. Together, these team trends produce our specific 77-24-7 combined angle for this situation.
CONCLUSION: Expect a pitcher’s duel. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Washington Nationals (907) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-18 |
Astros v. A's +1.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oakland A’s (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Lance McCullers. THE SITUATION: Oakland (18-17) looks to bounce-back from their 16-2 loss to the Astros in the opening game of this series yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OAKLAND PLUS THE 1.5 RUN-LINE: The A’s have bounced-back to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. Oakland has also won 5 of their last 6 games last home — and they have won 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They give the ball to Manaea who has been outstanding this season with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP behind a 4-3 record in seven starts this season. The left-hander has a no-hitter this year while seemingly fully recovered from an illness last summer that cost him 20 pounds in what resulted in a disappointing sophomore season. Manaea has been very tough at home where he has a 0.73 ERA and 0.41 WHIP in three starts — and his disparate home/road splits are consistent from last year where he had a 4.19 ERA and .265 opponent’s batting average at home versus a 4.50 ERA and .271 opponent’s batting average on the road. The A’s have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Manaea facing a team with a winning record. Houston (22-15) has lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Astros have also lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with McCullers who is 4-1 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven starts this year. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in four starts. McCullers was not quite as good on the road last year either as he had a 5.14 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average on the road versus his 3.04 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average when at home. Lastly, Houston has lost 5 of their last 7 games with McCullers pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. Lastly, because Manaea is averaging 6.0 strikeouts per start, the A’s are supported by a historical Run-Line angle that has been 67% effective since 1997. Oakland has a .251 batting average this season — and American League teams not hitting better than .260 for the season using a starting pitcher who is striking out at least 5.0 batters per start have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 317 of the last 469 situations where these conditions applied.
CONCLUSION: With the A’s a money-line underdog in the +130 range which places their +1.5 Run-Line price in the -130 range, I recommend investing in the +1.5 Run-Line for insurance in this contest. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Oakland A’s (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-18 |
Cubs v. Cardinals +100 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (914) versus the Chicago Cubs (913) listing both starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (19-12) looks to sweep this series tonight after rallying from 4-0 and 6-2 deficits yesterday to pull out an 8-6 victory in 10 innings. These teams are streaking in opposite directions as the Cardinals have won four straight games while the Cubs have lost four in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE ST. LOUIS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have also won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. St. Louis has also won 6 straight games at home. They give the ball to Wacha who is 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in six starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.38 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in four starts. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 3.41 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at home versus a 4.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road. The Cardinals have won 39 of their last 58 games at home with Wacha on the hill including winning four of their last five home games when facing a team with winning record. Chicago (16-14) has lost 9 of their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cubs have also lost 6 of their last 8 games in a series after losing the first two games. They counted with Lester who is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in six starts this year. The left-hander has not been as good on the road where he has a 3.31 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .226 as opposed to his 2.16 ERA and .222 opponent’s batting average at home. Lester had a 4.41 ERA and .265 opponent’s batting average on the road last year as compared to his 4.27 ERA and .254 opponent’s batting average at home. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Lastly, the Cardinals have won 13 of their last 16 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: The starting pitcher matchup is more decisive than the money-line is pricing this situation. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (914) versus the Chicago Cubs (913) listing both starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-18 |
Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -135 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Ross Stripling. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-15) has lost five of the last six games after a 4-2 loss in San Francisco yesterday. They travel to Arizona (19-8) to face a Diamondbacks team that had won three straight before losing in Washington yesterday by a 3-1 score.
THE REASONS TO TAKE ARIZONA WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Diamondbacks have bounced-back to win 7 straight games after a loss. Arizona returns home where they have won 7 of their last 9 games. They give the ball to Greinke who is 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander has been much better at home in two starts so far this year where he has a 1.42 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and .178 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 7.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .324 opponent’s batting average in three road starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year as he had a 2.87 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average at home versus a 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Diamondbacks have won 22 of their last 30 home games with Greinke on the mound. Los Angeles (12-15) has lost 27 of their last 40 games after a loss. They also have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They turn to Ross Stripling to make his first start of the season after pitching 14 1/3 innings out of the pen. Last year, Stripling had a 5.56 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to his 2.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .230 opponent’s batting average at home. The Dodgers have lost 5 of their last 7 games when Stripling is making a spot start. LA will likely turn to their bullpen early tonight — and that group has an ERA of 7.59 along with a 1.83 WHIP over the last seven days.
CONCLUSION: Greinke offers us nice value at home against a slumping Dodgers team using a pitcher more comfortable coming out of the bullpen. 25* MLB National League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Ross Stripling. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-18 |
Yankees v. Angels OVER 9 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: New York (17-9) has won eight straight games after their 11-1 win over the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (16-11) has now dropped three straight games.
THE REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: The Angels have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. LA has also played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Skaggs has an 8.00 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP and .325 opponent’s batting average in two starts at home as compared to his outstanding 0.49 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .179 WHIP in three starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where the left-hander had a 4.78 ERA and .282 opponent’s batting average at home versus his 4.32 ERA and .264 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Angles have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Skaggs on the hill — and the Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has seen the Over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least 5 runs in their last game — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road. Sabathia has been good in his first four starts — but he faces an Angels team that has seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-18 |
Yankees -106 v. Angels |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: New York (17-9) has won eight straight games after their 11-1 win over the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (16-11) has now dropped three straight games.
THE REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York should build off their momentum as they have won 6 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees are also getting great production from their bullpen that has a 1.56 ERA over their last five games — and NY has won 36 of their last 50 games when their bullpen as an ERA of 2.00 or better in their last five games. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in four starts this season. The left-hander makes his second start on the road where he had a 3.18 ERA last year as compared to his 4.20 ERA when at home. The Yankees have won 14 of their last 19 games with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. New York is 6-4 on the road — and the Angels have lost 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Skaggs has an 8.00 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP and .325 opponent’s batting average in two starts at home as compared to his outstanding 0.49 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .179 WHIP in three starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where the left-hander had a 4.78 ERA and .282 opponent’s batting average at home versus his 4.32 ERA and .264 opponent’s batting average when on the road. LA has lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Skaggs facing a team with a winning record.
CONCLUSION: The Yankees have the momentum and the edge at starting pitcher making them a great value at this price tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night Baseball ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-18 |
Nationals v. Giants UNDER 7 |
Top |
15-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija. Washington (10-14) has lost four straight games after their 4-3 loss in Game Two of this series against the Giants. The Nationals are swinging cold bats right now as they are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .211 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and a .589 OPS over that span. These cold bats have helped Washington play four straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Nationals have not committed an error in the field in five straight games — and they have then played 39 of their last 63 games Under the Total after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Washington has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing as a road favorite with double-revenge on their minds. They send out Scherzer who is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander was more effective on the road last year where he enjoyed a 1.82 ERA along with a 0.81 WHIP and .156 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .200 opponent’s batting average when at home. Scherzer was also better in day games where he sported a 1.90 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and .140 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average at night. Washington has seen the Under go a decisive 31-14-6 in their last 51 games on the road. The Nationals have also seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with Scherzer on the mound on the road. He should fare well against this San Fran team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Under is also 15-5-1 in the Giants’ last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (11-12) has won three straight games while hammering home runs in seven straight contests — but they will be facing a starting pitcher in Max Scherzer who has only allowed two homers this season. Despite this home runs, the Giants are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games which is only a slight tick above the 3.2 Runs-Per-Game rate for the season. They are also hitting only .235 with a .292 On-Base Percentage and a .716 OPS over these last seven contests. The Under is 35-16-4 in their last 55 games after a win — and they have also played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win by just one run. San Fran has also only played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Jeff Samardzija who did not allow an earned run in 5 innings of work in his first start of the season on Friday on Los Angeles against the Angels. The right-hander started the season on the Disabled List with a pectoral injury but looked very good in that start. Last season, Samardzija was more effective at home where he owned a 3.97 ERA and .251 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.81 ERA and .258 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Samardzija struggled with giving up too many home runs last year — particularly in hitter’s parks like Colorado and Arizona. But he also struck out batters 24.2% of the time while only issuing walks in a career-low 3.8% of his batters faced. Those peripherals help explain why both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.63 and 3.60 off this 2017 numbers. Samardzija was also better during day games where hewed a 1.08 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.17 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average at night. The Giants have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total with Samardzija pitching as an underdog. San Fran has also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total with Samardzija pitching with four days of rest. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-18 |
Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Wood. Los Angeles (9-10) has won five of their last six games with their 4-0 shutout win over the Nationals yesterday. The Dodgers have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a victory — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two earned runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total. They give the ball to Wood who is 0-2 with a 3.91 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP this season. Wood has four starts under his belt which is the minimum sample size I need to begin considering the statistics from starting pitchers in a new season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 5.40 ERA in two starts at home as compared to his 2.38 ERA in two starts on the road. Admittedly, this is thin evidence — but it strengthens significantly when compared to his 2017 numbers where he had a 3.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average at home which was all higher numbers than his 2.24 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. The Dodgers have played 8 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Wood on the mound. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total with Wood pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -175 to -200 price range. Additionally, the Over is 5-2-2 in the Nationals’ last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Washington (10-11) has still seen the Over go 6-2-2 in their last 10 games on the road even after yesterday’s Under. The Nationals’ bullpen is struggling as they have an ERA of 10.38 ERA over their last five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 7.00 or worse in their last five games. They counter with Jeremy Hellickson who is making just his second start of the season after allowing two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work in his first start of the season in New York against the Mets. Hellickson was 8-11 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.26 WHIP last season between stints with the Phillies and Orioles. I am not typically enthusiastic to put much weight into starting pitcher numbers from the previous season when that pitcher was playing for another team — but I would lean to Hellickson being aligned with Overs since he is not a very good pitcher at this point in his career. With the Total set at 8 for this game, the oddsmakers are certainly counting on an outstanding effort from Wood — so Hellickson’s side of the equation is not overvaluing the Over play that I like. Furthermore, Hellickson was worse in night games last year where he was saddled with a 5.99 ERA along with a 1.31 WHIP. This Over gains enough evidence to be worthy of investment when considering that the Dodgers are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while having played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 78-22-4 combined angle for this situation. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Wood. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-18 |
Rangers v. Astros -1.5 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-139 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (978) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (977) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Bartolo Colon. Houston (10-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 6-5 loss to the Rangers yesterday. But the Astros have bounced-back to win 36 of their last 51 games after a loss. They also have won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest, Houston has won 23 of these games. The Astros have also won 37 of their last 55 games at home in Minute Maid Park. They give the ball to Verlander who has picked up right where he left off since joining the team last fall and helping to lead them to a World Series Championship. After pitching 7 shutout innings in Minnesota in his last start, Verlander has a 2-0 record this season with a 1.45 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP this season. The right-hander has led his team to 12 wins in his last 13 starts when pitching at home. He should fare well against this Rangers team that has lost 10 of their last 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Texas has also lost 14 of their last 20 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Texas (5-11) snapped their five-game losing streak yesterday — but they have lost 6 straight games after a victory. The Rangers have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 22 games after allowing at least five runs, Texas has lost 17 of those games. They counter with Bartolo Colon who is 0-0 with 1.64 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in three appearances including one start that has encompassed 11 innings of work. The 45-year old had a rough 6.81 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP and .331 opponent’s batting average in stints with Minnesota and Atlanta last season. He allowed home runs at a 1.8 HRs per 9 inning rate last season. These are all bad signs for this Rangers team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. With the Astros priced at a sky-high money-line price well in the -300s, the much better value play is with Houston minus the -1.5 Run-Line. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Astros (978) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (977) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Bartolo Colon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-18 |
A's v. Dodgers -117 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (928) versus the Oakland A’s (927) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Sean Manaea. Los Angeles (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 2-1 win on Sunday in San Francisco against the Giants. The Dodgers have won 41 of their last 59 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Los Angeles has also won 21 of their last 28 games after an off day. The Dodgers return home for the first time since April 1st — and they have won 10 of their last 13 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Los Angeles has also won a decisive 60 of their last 84 games at home — so getting the opportunity to invest in them when they are priced below -150 is a nice situation. They have struggled with their bats to start the season but I can attribute that mostly to the small sample size. They give the ball to Ryu who looks to redeem himself from a rough opening start back on April 2nd when he allowed three earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work in Arizona. The left-hander was more effective at home last year where he had a strong 3.48 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.04 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Dodgers have won 17 of their last 22 home games with Ryu on the hill. He should fare well against this Oakland team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The A’s have also lost 8 of their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Oakland (4-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 6-1 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels on Sunday to close out that three-game series. The A’s stay on the road where they have lost 26 of their last 34 road games after playing at least three straight games against AL West rivals. Oakland has also lost 52 of their last 73 road games as an underdog. And in their last 30 games in Interleague play, the A’s have lost 21 of these games. They give the ball to Sean Manaea who is 1-1 with a 1.15 ERA and a 0.51 WHIP this season in his first two starts of the year. Manaea was 12-10 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.40 WHIP last year in a season where he lost 20 pounds due to a midseason illness — he was saddled with a 5.23 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with just a 15% strikeout rate in the second-half of the season. The left-hander’s deeper peripheral numbers suggest he was fortunate as both his SIERA and xFIP from last season projected an ERA of 4.51 and 4.53 for him. Manaea saw his 4.19 ERA along with a .265 opponent’s batting average at home rise to a 4.50 ERA and .271 opponent’s batting average when he was pitching on the road. Lastly, the A’s have lost 11 of their last 14 road games with Manaea facing a team with a losing record. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (928) versus the Oakland A’s (927) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Sean Manaea. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-09-18 |
Padres v. Rockies |
|
7-6 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (962) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (961) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Clayton Richard. San Diego (2-8) has lost two straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 4-1 loss in Houston yesterday. The Padres have then lost 10 of their last 13 games after a loss. San Diego has also lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. Furthermore, this Padres team has lost an incredible 61 of their last 90 games when playing on the road. They give the ball to Richard who is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in two starts this season. Last year, the left-hander was not as effective on the road where he was saddled with a 5.34 ERA along with a 1.56 WHIP and .315 opponent’s batting average as compared to his more modest 4.30 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .301 opponent’s batting average when at home. San Diego has lost 9 of their last 12 games with Richard on the mound. He faces a Rockies team that has won 20 of their last 29 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Run-Line Rout with the Colorado Rockies minus the 1.5-Run Line. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.
|
04-08-18 |
Mets v. Nationals -1.5 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Nationals (914) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (913) listing both starting pitchers Matt Harvey and Tanner Roark. New York (6-1) has won four straight games with their 3-2 win over the Nationals yesterday. The Mets have pulled upsets in the first two games of this series despite being an underdog priced and +145 and +140. But New York has then lost 8 of their last 12 games after winning two straight games as an underdog priced at +130 or higher. The Mets have also lost 4 of their last third games to a new series. Additionally, New York has lost 13 of their last 18 games on the road. They give the ball to Harvey who is pitched very well in his first start of the season by allowing only one hit and zero earned runs against the Phillies. But that start was at home. Harvey was a disaster when pitching on the road last year where he was saddled with a 7.14 ERA along with a 2.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .345. Harvey has not been the same pitcher since suffering from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome as his velocity has declined and he has regressed in every statistical measurement. Most concerning was that opposing batters had a well-hit rate of .221 which was the third worst in the majors for pitchers who made at least 15 starts last season. Harvey also walked batters at a rough 4.0/9 innings rate. The Mets have lost 23 of their last 32 road games with Harvey on the hill.
Washington (4-4) has now lost four games in a row — but they have won 24 of their last 31 games after a loss by two runs or less in their last game. The Nationals have also won 3 of their last 4 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, this team has won 17 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss by just one run. The Nats managed to score only two runs on Friday as well — but they have won 11 of their last 17 games after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. Washington needs to get their bats going as they are hitting only .169 over their last three games. The Nationals have won 27 of their last 39 games after failing to hit better than .200 over a three-game span. They counter with Tanner Roark who allowed only one earned run in 7 innings of work in his first start of the year in Atlanta. The right-hander was 13-11 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP last year but the deeper peripheral numbers suggested he was a bit unlucky with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.31 and 4.15. Roark has a career 3.38 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP when pitching at home — and the Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Roark on the hill. He faces a Mets team that has lost 10 of their last 14 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, while none of these team trends take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we will be laying in this game, the Nationals offensive struggles help to place the Mets into a contrarian “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 73% effective over the last five seasons. The Mets have not allowed more than two runs in four straight games — and road teams that have not allowed more than two runs in four straight games now facing a team that has not scored more than two runs in two straight games have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 41 of these last 55 situations where these conditions applied. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Nationals (914) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (913) listing both starting pitchers Matt Harvey and Tanner Roark. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-06-18 |
Braves v. Rockies -145 |
|
8-3 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (902) versus the Atlanta Braves (901) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Brandon McCarthy. Colorado (4-3) opened as a money-line favorite priced as high as -170 for their home opener but that price has been bet down to the -140s — and that makes the Rockies a worthwhile investment at that price (while following my rule to not endorse money-line favorites priced higher than -150). Colorado has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 3-1 win in San Diego yesterday. The Rockies have then won 19 of their last 28 games after allowing no more than one run in their last game. They also have won 13 of their last 16 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. They give the ball to Marquez who allowed one unearned run in 5 innings of work in his first start at Arizona last week. The 23-year old right-hander had an 11-7 record with a 4.39 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in his rookie season. He was a bit better at home with a 1.26 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.49 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average when on the road. He should continue to see his stuff improve which includes a 95 MPH fastball that contrasts nicely with a curveball that dips to just 81 MPH. Marquez was also very tough in day games where he enjoyed a 3.41 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.97 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .285 opponent’s batting average at night. Colorado has won 9 of their last 11 games with Marquez pitching at home. The Rockies have also won 11 of their last 16 games with Marquez facing a team with a winning record. He should fare well against this Atlanta team that has lost 6 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Atlanta (4-2) comes off a 7-1 win at home over Washington on Wednesday. The Braves have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Brandon McCarthy who scattered two runs for his new team in 5 innings of work in his first start of the year against the Phillies. The veteran right-hander had a 6-4 exceed with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 16 starts with the Dodgers last season — but he was not as effective when on the road where he was saddled with a 4.67 ERA along with a 1.44 WHIP and .293 opponent’s batting average. Coors Field has been a House of Horrors for McCarthy as he owns a 7.94 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP in three starts along with 17 innings of work at this stadium. That is not a good sign for a Braves team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road. Lastly, Atlanta has lost 12 of their last 14 games in Colorado. 10* MLB Friday Afternoon Matinee with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (902) versus the Atlanta Braves (901) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Brandon McCarthy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-01-18 |
Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
0-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Chris Stratton and Rich Hill. Los Angeles (1-2) finally scored their first runs of the season yesterday with their 5-0 win over the Giants after losing two consecutive games by a 1-0 in their opening two games of the season. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games after a win — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Hill tonight who was 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP last season. The left-hander with one of the nastiest curveballs in the majors was outstanding at home last season where he enjoyed a 2.77 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .179 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .233 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Los Angeles has played 37 of their last 57 home games with Hill on the mound. The Dodgers have also played 50 of their last 77 games Under the Total with Hill pitching at night. And in LA’s last 43 games when favorited at a -150 price or higher with Hill making the start, they have played 29 of these games Under the Total. He should fare well against this Giants team that has only produced 19 base hits and just two runs in their first three games this season. San Francisco has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. And in the Giants’ last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower, they played all 4 games Under the Total.
San Francisco (2-1) has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. The Giants have also seen the Under go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Chris Stratton who was 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP last season. The former 20th pick in the 2012 draft had an opponent’s batting average of .250 on the road last year which was much better than his .282 opponent’s batting average when at home. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when on the road. He should also pitch well against this struggling Dodgers’ lineup that has managed to scrape together just eleven base hits in their first three games. 10* MLB Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Chris Stratton and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Yu Darvish. Houston (111-68) blew their first chance to win the World Series last night with their 3-1 loss to the Dodgers. The Astros have then played 25 of their last 35 road games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Houston has also played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after scoring and allowing no more than three runs in their last contest. You may see some stats today about the dearth of Astros’ runs in this postseason — but remember that this team scored seven runs in Game Two of this series in LA to defeat the Dodgers and they are averaging 5.9 Runs-Per-Game away from home for the year which includes the playoffs. They give the ball to McCullers who was 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. But while the right-hander thrived at home during the regular season with a 3.04 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in nine starts, those numbers rose to a 5.14 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in thirteen regular season starts. And the Astros bullpen has a 6.12 ERA in their last seven games so there is little relief on the way if and when McCullers falters.
Los Angeles (114-62) has played 22 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Manager Dave Roberts really has little choice than give the ball to Darkish to start this game despite his getting shelled in Game Three of this series where he allowed four runs and six hits in just 1 2/3 innings of work. Darvish is at the epicenter of Slick Ball Gate with him being very dependent on a slider that was not dropping as much as he usually coaxes out of the baseball when getting hammered last Friday night. Even if the Slick Ball issues are rationalizations for poor pitching performances (I think it is real because I give credence to testimony from the likes of Justin Verlander and others), the fact is that the feel of the ball is now in Darvish’s head which will likely have a negative impact on his efforts tonight. As it is, Darkish has not been as effective at home as on the road this year. For the regular season between the Dodgers and Rangers, the right-hander has a 10-12 record with a 3.86 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. At home during the regular season, Darkish had a 5.25 ERA with a .246 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.44 ERA and .206 opponent’s batting average on the road. With the Dodgers during the regular season, Darkish had a 4.84 ERA in four starts with a 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in five starts. This will be Darvish’s first start at home for the Dodgers in this postseason. For his career, Darkish has a subpar 4.74 ERA in 24 2/3 innings of work in the playoffs. I do expect a short leash to be on Darkish tonight with Alex Wood the first likely candidate to replace him being on three days rest from a great start on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw will certainly take the mound as well — but he has never pitched well on short rest and is coming off that home outing where he allowed six earned runs. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 4.07 ERA in their last seven games. Lastly, you may see some stats today about the dearth of Astros’ runs in this postseason — but remember that this team scored seven runs in Game Two of this series in LA to defeat the Dodgers and they are averaging 5.9 Runs-Per-Game away from home for the year which includes the playoffs. 20* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-17 |
Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (913) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Yu Darvish. Los Angeles (114-62) evened this series at 3-3 last night with their 3-1 victory over the Astros to force a climactic Game Seven tonight. I have been line watching again this morning with the Dodgers opening as a money-line favorite in the -145 range with that then being bet up to the -155 to -160 range as of this writing. I see Los Angeles as a slight favorite in this game given home field advantage — but when taking the Astros plus the +1.5 Run-Line is around the same price as taking the Dodgers straight-up, then this becomes an easy Run-Line play for me with this Houston team that has a good chance of winning this game outright. Manager Dave Roberts really has little choice than give the ball to Darkish to start this game despite his getting shelled in Game Three of this series where he allowed four runs and six hits in just 1 2/3 innings of work. Darvish is at the epicenter of Slick Ball Gate with him being very dependent on a slider that was not dropping as much as he usually coaxes out of the baseball when getting hammered last Friday night. Even if the Slick Ball issues are rationalizations for poor pitching performances (I think it is real because I give credence to testimony from the likes of Justin Verlander and others), the fact is that the feel of the ball is now in Darvish’s head which will likely have a negative impact on his efforts tonight. As it is, Darkish has not been as effective at home as on the road this year. For the regular season between the Dodgers and Rangers, the right-hander has a 10-12 record with a 3.86 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. At home during the regular season, Darkish had a 5.25 ERA with a .246 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.44 ERA and .206 opponent’s batting average on the road. With the Dodgers during the regular season, Darkish had a 4.84 ERA in four starts with a 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in five starts. This will be Darvish’s first start at home for the Dodgers in this postseason — and his teams have lost 10 of their last 16 games when he is making the start at home. For his career, Darkish has a subpar 4.74 ERA in 24 2/3 innings of work in the playoffs. I do expect a short leash to be on Darkish tonight with Alex Wood the first likely candidate to replace him being on three days rest from a great start on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw will certainly take the mound as well — but he has never pitched well on short rest and is coming off that home outing where he allowed six earned runs. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 4.07 ERA in their last seven games. Finally, while I did not put too much weight in the Dodgers’ eleven-game losing streak in August, I did think it could impact their confidence in pressure-filled moments in these playoffs. Los Angeles blew leads in Game Two and Game Five of this series. Now in front of their home fans after staving off elimination last night by defeating Verlander, the Dodgers may have celebrated a day early. They will likely experience some very anxious moments tonight in the face of failing in this moment where they are now expected to win — as evidenced by this moving money-line.
Houston (111-68) is certainly disappointed in blowing their chance to win the World Series with Justin Verlander on the mound last night — but they get a second chance with a blank slate tonight with the knowledge that they came back to win Game Two of this series in LA. The Astros have proven themselves resilient by winning 44 of their last 66 games after a loss. Houston has also won 16 of their last 21 road games after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They give the ball to Lance McCullers who is so ready for this moment that he began warming up last night after the game to get himself acclimated for his moment. The right-hander has always oozed with talent — his biggest problem has been lowering his walk rate to help harness his enormous potential. McCullers has been outstanding in these playoffs by posting a 1-0 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings of work. It was a telling moment when after he earned the four-inning save in Game Seven against the Yankees, manager A.J. Hinch moved him up in the rotation ahead of Charlie Morton who has also pitched quite well this postseason. This Astros team can very well win this game outright. Like Game Five of this wild series, lets happily buy the insurance of the +1.5 Run-Line which is an undervalued commodity in baseball when we are afforded the opportunity to invest at -150 or lower. 25* MLB World Series Game Seven A-List Run-Line Special with the Houston Astros (913) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Rich Hill. I have spent the last day getting into the weeds regarding “Slick-Ball Gate” to see if there is something to this that is helping to generate more higher scoring games — like the Astros’ 13-12 home run fest on Sunday. And despite a Buster Olney tweet about the aggregate batting average against sliders in this World Series being lower than it was during the regular season, I have concluded that there is something going on here. That tweet from the ESPN baseball “expert” speaks volumes about the limitations of quantitative analytics (and the need for pundits to understand what statistics say and do not say). Just looking at one of the World Series baseballs versus the ones used during the regular season illustrates the difference. Verlander claims that even signing the baseballs illuminates a significant difference in how the ink is absorbed — or with these slick World Series balls — or smears. Verlander compared it to writing on carbon paper. Not only are the balls slicker but the seams on the ball are not raised. Olney probably was never a pitcher as a child. I was. Raised laces was essential for my ability to get spin on my breaking balls. Now, not all sliders are created equal (mine certainly wasn’t) — which is one of the reasons why Olney’s stat about the batting average against sliders in the World Series does not communicate nearly as much as he thinks it does. Some pitchers are still finding success in the World Series — like Alex Wood and Charlie Morton in Game Four (when we had the Over). But Wood and Morton do not throw sliders. And for the pitchers that do rely on sliders, even if “Slick Ball Gate” is not a rationalization for poor pitching in the Fall Classic, it is having a psychological effect at the very least. Wood and Morton are likely to see significant time on the mound if there is a Game Seven — but for Game Six, this shapes up to be another high scoring affair even with Verlander on the mound for the Astros. The veteran right-hander is not likely to pitch a complete game — and the Houston bullpen has been a disaster with a 7.58 ERA in this World Series. Verlander allowed three earned runs in 6 innings of work in his Game Two start — and the Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Verlander looking to follow up a Quality Start. Additionally, the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games after an of day. The Over is also 3-1-1 in Houston’s last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against an opponent that allowed at least four runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against National League teams. And in their last 39 road games priced in the +/- 125 range, the Astros have played 26 of these games Over the Total. They face a Dodgers team scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower, the Over is 3-1-1.
Los Angeles (113-62) was favored on Sunday with Clayton Kershaw having the ball — and they have then played 36 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss on the road where they were the favorite. The Over is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games at home. They counter with Rich Hill who had a 12-8 record with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP during the regular season. Hill allowed only one earned run in Game Two in 4 innings of work. In his 29 career innings in the postseason, the left-hander sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.72 and 1.41 marks. Hill has not pitched into the 6th inning in any of his three starts in these playoffs — so that means the Dodgers’ bullpen that has a 5.32 ERA in the World Series will have to pitch at least four innings most likely. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Hill pitching at home. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Lastly, Houston has played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers +102 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
102 |
30 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) versus the Houston Astros (911) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Justin Verlander. Houston (111-67) showed plenty of resolve to rally from an early four-run deficit and kept fighting last night to pull out an epic 13-12 victory in extra innings. Now they are on the brink of winning this World Series with their ace Verlander on the hill who has incredible numbers in potential close out games in the playoffs. That has helped make this game a virtual toss up with this — and created outstanding value on the Dodgers. Verlander showed he was hittable in Game Two of this series when he allowed three runs in 6 innings of work where he left the game with the Astros trailing. Two different left-handed batters hit home runs off him. And only one of Verlander’s seventeen sliders that he threw in that outing coaxed a swing-and-miss from a Dodgers’ batter. Verlander should be good but I do not think he will be unhittable. And manager A.J. Finch lacks reliable alternatives in his bullpen that has a 7.58 ERA in this World Series. Finch has benched his closer Ken Giles from complete ineffectiveness. Game Seven will be a different story with Dallas Kuechel and every other starting pitcher available to pitch — but I do not like the pitching situation for the Astros on Tuesday after Verlander at all. Keep in mind that Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road in these playoffs. And in their last 9 trips to Los Angeles, they have lost 7 of their games with the Dodgers.
Los Angeles (113-62) returns home where they have won 52 of their last 71 games. The Dodgers have also won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 54 games after scoring at least five runs. And in their last 27 games after an off day, the Dodgers have won 21 of these contests. They give the ball to Rich Hill who out-pitched Verlander in Game Two by allowing only one earned run while striking out seven batters in that outing. I think Hill being a journeyman for so long before he found greatness late in his career will help his perspective in handling the pressure of this moment. He has a 2.77 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in 13 innings with 19Ks in this postseason. Hill was also outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.77 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .179 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 games at home with Hill on the mound. 25* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) versus the Houston Astros (911) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-17 |
Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 7 |
|
12-13 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) and the Houston Astros (910) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. Los Angeles (18-4) looks to build off their 6-2 victory over the Astros last night that evened this series at 2-2. The Under is then 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a victory — and the Under is 4-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 6-1-1 in LA’s last 8 playoff games on the road. They give the ball to their ace Kershaw who is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA and an 0.82 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings of work in these playoffs. The Under is 20-7-2 in the Dodgers’ last 29 road games with Kershaw starting against teams with a winning record. He faces cold Astros team that is hitting just .227 with a .289 On-Base Percentage and .713 OPS over their last seven games. Additionally, the Under is 5-1-1 in Houston’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Houston (110-67) has now seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games at home. The Astros have also played 33 of their last 56 games Under the Total when playing at least their third game in a row at home. They counter with Dallas Keuchel who will be looking to avenge his Game One loss to Kershaw. For the season, the left-hander had a 14-5 record with a 2.90 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP this season. Keuchel was outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.26 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.53 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. In his 38 innings in his career in the playoffs, Keuchel has a 2.84 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. Houston has played 10 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total with Keuchel on the hill. He faces a Dodgers’ team that is hitting just .220 over their last seven games with a .301 On-Base Percentage and a .724 OPS. Lastly, the Under is 19-7-2 in Los Angeles’ last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) and the Houston Astros (910) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-17 |
Dodgers v. Astros +1.5 |
Top |
12-13 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. I had been debating what my side play would be in this potential Game Five situation since the end of Game One — and this internal conversation continued after the Dodgers’ 6-2 victory to even this series at 2-2 and through my early morning finishing up my early NFL plays for the day. I was considering this situation a toss up. After a short break to help focus my attention on this play, it (finally) hit me that the strong value play with this game was with the Astros plus the +1.5 Run-Line which is priced reasonably (as I define as no higher than -150) given the high value that is being placed on Kershaw. The left-hander was outstanding in Game One of this series and has been quite good all postseasn. But Kershaw does have that 4.21 ERA in 113 1/3 innings in the playoffs — and this will be just his second start in these playoffs away from home. Kershaw was not been quite as effective on the road in the regular season where he had a 0.98 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts as compared to his 0.92 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in nineteen starts at home. He is facing an Astros team that has won 23 of their last 31 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Dodgers have still lost 4 of their last 6 road games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. And in their last 38 road games after a win by at least four runs, Los Angeles has lost 22 of these games.
Houston (110-67) has rebounded to win 44 of their last 64 games after a loss. The Astros have also won 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 48 games after a loss by at least four runs, Houston ash won 34 of these games. The Astros managed only two base hits last night — but they have then won 21 of their last 28 games after failing to scratch out more than four hits in their last game. This remains a team that has won 19 of their last 26 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 8 playoff games at home. They counter with Dallas Keuchel who will be looking to avenge his Game One loss to Kershaw. For the season, the left-hander had a 14-5 record with a 2.90 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP this season. Keuchel was outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.26 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.53 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. In his 38 innings in his career in the playoffs, Keuchel has a 2.84 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. The Astros have won 17 of their last 23 home games with Keuchel pitching against a team with a winning record. Furthermore, the Dodgers have lost 21 of their last 31 road games in Interleague play (with a Designated Hitter) against a left-handed starting pitcher. Lastly, because the Astros have a slugging percentage of .461, they are supported by a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 83% effective since 1997. Kershaw has not issued a walk in either of his last two starts — but American League home underdogs with a slugging percentage of .450 or higher facing a starting pitcher who has not issued a base-on-balls in at least two straight starts have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line (when then priced in the -130 to +110 price range) in 38 of the last 46 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB World Series Game Five A-List Run-Line Special with the Houston Astros (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-17 |
Dodgers v. Astros -132 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-132 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (907) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Alex Wood. Los Angeles (112-61) finds themselves down 2-1 in this series — with second starts from Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander still pending — after their 5-3 loss to the Astros yesterday. Winning Game Three was very important for this team given the pitching matchups coming up after the Dodgers blew a 3-1 lead in the second game of this series. They should have had an advantage with Yu Darvish on the mound but he was not sharp at all after giving up four runs in just 1 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, Darvish may have been reacting to the mood of the locker room. Remember, this team suffered the longest losing streak in MLB this season by losing eleven straight after the NL West title was in hand — so this looks like a team that may crave the drama of self-destruction. Losing this game would unleash those inner demons. As it is, the Dodgers have lost 18 of their last 24 games after a loss. They have also lost 17 of their last 27 games after losing two straight contests. Additionally, LA has now lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And in their last 53 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range, the Dodgers have lost 33 of these games. They give the ball to Wood who was 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP this season. But while the left-hander was lights out with a 1.67 ERA along with a 0.89 WHIP and .174 opponent’s batting average in 15 games (thirteen starts) prior to the All-Star Break, those numbers rose to a 3.89 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average in twelve regular season starts after the break. He faces a suddenly resurgent offense that has led their team to win 23 of their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Houston (110-66) has all the momentum right now — and they have won 22 of their last 30 games after a victory. The Astros have also won 19 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Houston has won 21 of their last 28 games at home — and they have won 16 of their last 21 playoff games at home. They give the ball to Morton who is 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander was much better at home during the regular season where he had a 3.34 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts as compared to his 4.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. Morton was outstanding in his last start (and only start at home this postseason) where he allowed zero runs and just two hits in 5 innings of work in the decisive Game Seven of the ALCS against the Yankees. The Astros have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Morton on the mound against a team with a winning record. Morton is also much better under the lights as he sports a 3.35 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP at night this year. Houston has won 30 of their last 42 games with Morton making the start at night. He faces a cold-hitting Dodgers team that has a low .216 batting average along with a .318 On-Base Percentage and .745 OPS over their last seven games. 20* MLB Dodgers-Astros Game Four Special with the money-line on the money-line on the Houston Astros (907) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Alex Wood. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-17 |
Dodgers v. Astros OVER 8.5 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the Houston Astros (907) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Alex Wood. Houston (110-66) has seen their bats wake up with the sense or urgency that filled them in the 8th inning of Game Two of this series when they were facing Kenley Jansen with a 3-1 deficit. Since those dire moments, the Astros have scored eleven runs in their twelve frames at bat which includes the remaining four innings in their 7-6 victory on Wednesday as well as their 5-3 win over the Dodgers last night in Game Three of this series. The Over is now 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Over is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Morton who is 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has a 6.23 career ERA with a 1.54 WHIP in his three career starts in the postseason — so there is a good chance he will be feeling some nerves in his first appearance in the World Series. And remember, this Astros bullpen has been unreliable — to say the least. In these playoffs, the Houston bullpen has a 4.50 ERA.
Los Angeles (112-61) has seen the Over go 9-3-2 in their last 14 games after a loss. The Over is also 10-4-2 in the Dodgers’ last 16 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Over is 4-1-1 for LA. They counter with Alex Wood who was 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP this season. But while the left-hander was lights out with a 1.67 ERA along with a 0.89 WHIP and .174 opponent’s batting average in 15 games (thirteen starts) prior to the All-Star Break, those numbers rose to a 3.89 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average in twelve regular season starts after the break. The Dodgers have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Wood pitching after a loss. The Astros have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. And manager Dave Roberts has exhausted his bullpen over the last two games after using eight relievers in Game Two and another five relievers last night. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the Houston Astros (907) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Alex Wood. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-17 |
Dodgers +122 v. Astros |
|
3-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) versus the Houston Astros (905) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Houston (109-66) rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the 8th inning to pull out a thrilling 8-7 victory in 11 innings. Now this team returns home with the World Series tied at 1-1 — but the Astros have lost 4 of their last 5 third games to a series. Houston has also lost 17 of their last 25 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to McCullers who was 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP during the regular season. The Astros lost 8 of their last 9 games with McCullers on the mound making the start. Furthermore, while both bullpens looked shaky in the second game of this series on Wednesday, Houston has been experiencing trouble with their bullpen all postseason given their playoff ERA of 4.91.
Los Angeles (112-60) have rebounded to win 4 straight games after a loss — and they have won a decisive 48 of their last 60 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also won 21 of their last 26 games after an off day. Furthermore, LA has won 5 of their last 6 games on the road. And this team has still won ten of their last twelve games — and they have then won 65 of their last 85 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They give the ball to Darvish who is 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander was been more effective on the road during the regular season where he had a 2.44 ERA with a .206 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 5.25 ERA along with a .246 opponent’s batting average at home with Texas and then the Dodgers after being traded to LA. The Dodgers have won 4 straight games on the road with Darvish on the hill. With Houston moving to a -130 or so money-line favorite in what I consider a coin flip situation (at worst, for LA), the clear value remains with the Dodgers with the better starting pitcher tonight along with the better bullpen. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) versus the Houston Astros (905) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-17 |
Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) and the Houston Astros (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Los Angeles (112-60) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 7-6 win in extra innings in what became a game for the ages in World Series history. The Dodgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after an off day. Now they go on the road where the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games away from home. They give the ball to Darvish who is 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander was been more effective on the road during the regular season where he had a 2.44 ERA with a .206 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 5.25 ERA along with a .246 opponent’s batting average at home with Texas and then the Dodgers after being traded to LA. The right-hander has been outstanding in this postseason where he has a 2–0 record with a 1.59 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in two starts. Darvish’s teams have played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price-range. He faces an Astros team that is hitting just .201 over their last seven games with a .280 On-Base Percentage and .638 OPS over that span. Houston has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Houston (109-66) has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home in Minute Maid Park. The Astros have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when hosting the Dodgers. It is telling that manager A.J. Hinch has decided to tap Lance McCullers over Charlie Morton who was the starter in Game Seven of the ALCS against the Yankees last Saturday. McCullers pitched four scoreless innings in that game to earn the save while allowing only one hit and no earned runs. During the regular season, McCullers was 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander was more effective at home where he owned a 3.04 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 5.14 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Astros have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with McCullers the starting pitcher with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. McCullers has been money this postseason given his 2.08 ERA along with an 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings that includes two starts along with that bullpen stint last week. He faces a Dodgers’ team that its hitting just .233 over their last seven games. Lastly, the Under is 5-0-1 in Los Angeles’ last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) and the Houston Astros (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers -105 |
|
7-6 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) versus the Houston Astros (903) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Justin Verlander. Houston (108-65) lost the opening game of the World Series last night with their 3-1 loss to the Dodgers. The Astros have struggled on the road this postseason. They looked overwhelmed by the atmosphere in the Bronx against the Yankees losing all three games there. After last night, Houston has lost 5 of their last 6 games away from home — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road in the playoffs. The Astros have also lost 7 of their last 8 games in LA against the Dodgers. And in their last 5 games against National League opponents with a winning record, Houston has lost 4 of these games. They send out Verlander who has been awesome with this team since being acquired from the Tigers — and he is enjoying a historic postseason run with four wins in all four of his appearances. But the veteran right-hander does typically pitch better at home. In his fifteen regular season starts at home for Detroit and Houston, Verlander had a 2.45 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers rose to a 4.16 ERA ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average when on the road. And the home plate umpire Paul Nauert is typically hitter-friendly when calling balls and strikes. Furthermore, if and when Verlander gives way to the Astros’ bullpen, the Dodgers will then seize a distinct advantage on their home field. Houston’s pen has struggled with a 4.84 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in the playoffs. On the road this season, the Astros have a 4.92 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. Verlander and this pen are facing a hot-hitting LA team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs with a .270 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and .832 OPS. The Dodgers have won 38 of their last 56 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Los Angeles (112-59) has now won 8 of their 9 playoff games this postseason. The Dodgers now won a decisive 68 of their last 87 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Dodgers have also won 60 of their last 76 games after a win. And in their last 38 home games after a game where they allowed one run or less, LA has won 32 of these games. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 55 games at home, Los Angeles has won 41 of these contests. Even more regarding the Dodgers’ momentum, they have not allowed more than three runs in seven straight games — and they have then won 30 of their last 37 games after not allowing more than four earned runs in at least three straight games. LA has also won 6 straight home games against American League teams. They give the ball to Hill tonight who is 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.09 WHIP during the regular season. The left-hander was particularly effective at home during the regular season where he enjoyed a 2.77 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP and .179 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 4.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .233 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road. Hill will be making his first start since October 15th when he allowed only one earned run in 5 innings of work at home against the Cubs in the NLCS. The Dodgers have won 4 straight home games against teams with Hill facing a team with a winning record. He faces a cold Astros lineup that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .173 batting average along with a .253 On-Base Percentage and .548 OPS over that span. Additionally, the Astros have lost 9 of their last 13 games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Dodgers’ bullpen has not allowed an earned run in the last seven games while posting a microscopic 0.26 WHIP over that span — giving that group a big advantage over the Astros. 20* MLB Astros-Yankees Game Two Special with the money-line on the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) versus the Houston Astros (903) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
7-6 |
Loss |
-112 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Rich Hill. Los Angeles (112-59) won the opening game of this series last night by a 3-1 score. The Dodgers have then seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a win — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after not allowing more than two earned runs in their last game. And in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road, Los Angeles has played 10 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Hill tonight who is 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.09 WHIP during the regular season. The left-hander was particularly effective at home during the regular season where he enjoyed a 2.77 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP and .179 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 4.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .233 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road. Hill will be making his first start since October 15th when he allowed only one earned run in 5 innings of work at home against the Cubs in the NLCS. Hill’s teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when he is pitching with at least nine days of rest. He faces a cold Astros lineup that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .173 batting average along with a .253 On-Base Percentage and .548 OPS over that span. Additionally, the Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Houston (108-66) has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. The Astros stranded two baserunners last night — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. The Under is also 7-2-1 in Houston’s last 10 road games against National League opponents. They counter with Justin Verlander who is a perfect 9-0 with 1.23 ERA in eight starts with one postseason appearance out of the bullpen for them since being acquired from the Tigers. In these playoffs, the right-hander has a 1.46 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings of work. Verlander’s teams have played 27 of their last 37 games Under the Total in the second-half of the season. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is 19-6-2 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7 |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (902) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw. Los Angeles (111-59) takes the field again since they eliminated the Cubs in five games last Thursday in their 11-1 victory. The Dodgers have then played 19 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. Los Angeles has not allowed more than three runs in six straight games — but they have then played 40 of their last 62 games Over the Total after allowing no more than three runs in at least five straight games. Furthermore, the Dodgers have seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on their home field. They give the ball to Kershaw who was 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.95 WHIP during the regular season. But the left-hander is not quite the same pitcher in the postseason where he has a 4.40 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 106 1/3 innings. In these playoffs, Kershaw has a 3.63 ERA which is pretty good (and better than his previous playoff stints) but I expect him to surrender runs in this game. In fourteen starts at home during the regular season, the left-hander had a 2.58 ERA which was a bit higher than his filthy 2.03 ERA in thirteen starts on the road. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 home games with Kershaw on the mound. He faces a Astros team that has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
Houston (108-65) reached the World Series with their 4-0 win over the Cubs on Saturday. The Astros have then played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a victory. Houston has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 15-5-2 in their last 22 games after an off-day for the Astros. Now the Astros go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total away from home. The Over is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games against National League teams without the Designated Hitter. They give the ball to Dallas Keuchel who is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The left-hander was outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.26 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts — but those numbers jumped to 3.53 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in his twelve starts on the road. Keuchel does have a 2-1 record in the postseason with a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in three starts — but two of those starts were at home. In his one start away from home in the playoffs, Keuchel was rocked for four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work in New York in his last start last Wednesday while giving up seven base hits and issuing a walk. The Astros have then seen the Over go 4-0-2 in their last 6 games with Keuchel pitching with at least five days of rest. Houston has also played 4 straight games Over the Total with Keuchel facing a National League team. Lastly, while the Over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 home games when facing a left-handed pitcher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (902) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
130 |
7 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (902) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (901) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. With the money-line listed for this game in the -170 range, I will be following my self-imposed guideline to not endorse a favorite (or underdog for that matter) in those situations and instead consider the Run-Line plays with that price in the +/- 150 range for both sides. Houston (108-65) reached the World Series with their 4-0 win over the Cubs on Saturday. But that game was at home — and the Astros have struggled on the road this postseason. They looked overwhelmed by the atmosphere in the Bronx against the Yankees losing all three games there. Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 games away from home — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road in the playoffs. The Astros have also lost 6 of their last 7 games in LA against the Dodgers. They send out Keuchel who is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP during the regular season. The left-hander was outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.26 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts — but those numbers jumped to 3.53 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in his twelve starts on the road. Keuchel does have a 2-1 record in the postseason with a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in three starts — but two of those starts were at home. In his one start away from home in the playoffs, Keuchel was rocked for four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work in New York in his last start while giving up seven base hits and issuing a walk. Now he faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a batting average of .264 along with a .373 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .832. Los Angeles has won a decisive 37 of their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Dodgers have also won 35 of their last 51 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Los Angeles (111-59) has won seven of their eight playoff games this postseason with their 11-1 win in Chicago over the Cubs on Thursday. The Dodgers should build off their momentum in this opening game of the World Series. Los Angeles has won a decisive 67 of their last 86 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Dodgers have also won 59 of their last 75 games after a win. And in their last 37 home games after a game where they allowed one run or less, LA has won 31 of these games. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 54 games at home, Los Angeles has won 40 of these contests. They give the ball to Clayton Kershaw who is 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP this season. Kershaw’s peripheral numbers are better at home where he produced a 0.92 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in fourteen regular season starts as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Dodgers have won 41 of their last 53 home games with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record. Kershaw was outstanding in his last start where he allowed just one earned run and just three hits in Chicago against the Cubs — and LA has won 42 of their last 54 games with Kershaw looking to follow up a Quality Start. The Dodgers have also won 35 of their last 42 games with Kershaw pitching with the Total set at just 7 or even lower. And remember, he is supported by a red hot bullpen that has a 1.04 ERA with a 0.39 WHIP (!) over their last seven games. Kershaw faces an Astros team that is scoring just 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .187 batting average along with a .269 On-Base Percentage and .563 OPS over that span. Lastly, the Dodgers have won 41 of their last 59 games when a money-line favorite priced at least at -150 with Kershaw on the mound. Rather than paying that high price, instead take the Dodgers priced as the underdog when laying -1.5 runs. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (902) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (901) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-17 |
Yankees v. Astros OVER 8 |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-112 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Charlie Morton. Houston (107-65) uncorked their bats last night by scoring seven runs (one run too many for us) in their 7-1 win over the Yankees to force a climactic seventh game. I expect the pressure of the moment to impact the pitchers more than the hitters in what should be a much more competitive game than last night. Both bullpens have been shaky in this series with the typically reliable David Robertson getting hit hard by the Astros yesterday. Houston has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a victory. And in their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game, Houston has played 4 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Morton who was shelled for seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work in Game Three of this series on Monday. Morton has not fared well in his postseason experiences as he is now saddled with a 7.24 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP in just 13 2/3 innings of work spanning three playoff starts. And while he is pitching on his normal four days of rest, the Astros have seen the Over go 5-2-2 in their last 9 games with Morton pitching on four days of rest. The Houston bullpen has been ineffective as well as they have a 5.40 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP over their last seven games. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Over. Best of luck for us -- Frank. TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.
|
10-21-17 |
Yankees v. Astros -127 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and C.C. Sabathia. Houston (107-65) made possible this decisive Game Seven last night with their 7-1 victory over the Yankees. The Astros will have momentum on their side tonight after that decisive victory. Houston has won 20 of their last 27 games after a win. The Astros have also won 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 19 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest, Houston has won 14 of these games. Home field has been a huge factor in this series as well — and it gives the Astros more of an edge than the money-line price is suggesting given their 53-33 record in Minute Maid Park. Houston has won 19 of their last 26 games at home — and they have won 6 straight home games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Astros have won 6 straight home games in the ALCS. They give the ball to Morton who is 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP this season. He appears to be the weak link for this team tonight after he was shelled for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings or work on Monday in Game Three of this series. But that game was in Yankee Stadium where Morton had a 4.17 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average in nine starts during the regular season. Back at home, Morton saw those numbers improve to a 3.34 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in sixteen regular season starts at home. Furthermore, Morton pitches better at night — and the Astros have won 29 of their last 41 night games with Morton on the mound.
New York (98-76) has been outstanding at home all season — but this young ball club has been a different team on the road where they are just 41-46 for the season. They saw their three-game winning streak snapped last night — but they have then lost 19 of their last 27 road games after winning three of there lsat four games. They have lost 6 of their last 7 road games this season — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 playoff games away from home. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record over 60% at home, the Yankees have lost 5 of these games. Additionally, this team has lost 5 straight games in Houston. They give the ball to C.C. Sabathia who is 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. But while the left-hander had a 1.23 WHIP and .243 opponent’s batting average in thirteen regular season starts at home, those numbers rose to a 1.32 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. Furthermore, while the veteran has been very good in three postseason starts this season, he does still carry a mediocre 4.24 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 123 career playoff innings. Lastly, this Astros team crushes left-handed pitching as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game against lefty starters this year with a .282 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and .812 OPS. 25* MLB Yankees-Astros Game Seven A-List Special with money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-17 |
Yankees v. Astros -126 |
|
1-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (914) with the money-line versus the New York Yankees (913) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Luis Severino. New York (98-75) flexed their muscles at home by winning all three games there this week culminating in their 5-0 shutout victory on Wednesday. But while the Yankees are now an impressive 57-30 at home, they are a much different team away from home given their 41-45 record on the road. Expect a big letdown now as these Bronx Bombers have lost 18 of their last 26 road games after winning at least three straight games. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. The Yankees have also lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road in the playoffs. And in their last 4 games in Houston, New York has lost all 4 games. They give the ball to Severino who is 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled in these playoffs with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in just 11 1/3 innings despite making three starts. He faces a Houston team that has won 21 of their last 26 home games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Furthermore, the Astros have won a decisive 44 of their last 64 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Houston (106-65) has bounced-back to win 18 of their last 24 games after being shutout in their last game. The Astros have also won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They return home where they are 52-33 this season — and they ave won 13 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Houston has also won 4 straight home games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Verlander tonight who has been outstanding for them since being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. In his five regular season starts wearing an Astros uniform, Verlander had a 5-0 record with a 1.06 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP. In his two regular season starts in Houston, Verlander had a 0.64 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 0.93 WHIP. The right-hander has been outstanding in the postseason with a 3-0 record along with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with 16 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings of work. In his 116 innings in his career in the playoffs, Verlander has a 10-5 record with a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. The Astros have won 4 straight home games with Verlander making the start. And in Kate Upton’s fiance’s last 60 home games with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range, his teams have won a decisive 46 of these contests. He faces a Yankees lineup that is hitting only .227 with a .301 On-Base Percentage and .688 OPS over their last seven games. Lastly, New York has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. 20* MLB Yankees-Astros Fox Sports 1 Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (914) with the money-line versus the New York Yankees (913) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-17 |
Yankees v. Astros UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-7 |
Loss |
-122 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Justin Verlander. Houston (106-65) returns home having lost all three games in Yankee Stadium after their 5-0 loss on Wednesday. The Astros have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Houston has not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in at least four straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 15-5-1 in the Astros’ last 21 home ames against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Verlander tonight who has been outstanding for them since being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. In his five regular season starts wearing an Astros uniform, Verlander had a 5-0 record with a 1.06 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP. In his two regular season starts in Houston, Verlander had a 0.64 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 0.93 WHIP. The right-hander has been outstanding in the postseason with a 3-0 record along with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with 16 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings of work. In his 116 innings in his career in the playoffs, Verlander has a 10-5 record with a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Verlander comes off a complete game where he allowed only one earned run against the Yankees in Game Two of this series — and not only am I not worried about the carry over from the pitch count from that effort with him pitching on his normal four days of rest but his teams have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when he is following up a start where he allowed one earned run or less. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their 7 games Under the Total with Verlander on the mound for them. He faces a Yankees lineup that is hitting only .227 with a .301 On-Base Percentage and .688 OPS over their last seven games. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in New York’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
New York (98-75) has seen the Under go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a win — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games after an off day. Now New York goes back on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They give the ball to Severino who is 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road with a 2.24 ERA in fifteen regular season starts as compared to his 3.71 ERA an sixteen starts at home. He faces a Houston team that is scoring just 2.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .207 Batting Average along with an On-Base Percentage of .277 and an OPS of .577. The Astros have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, Houston has payed 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB American League Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-17 |
Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 7 |
|
11-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) and the Chicago Cubs (912) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Jose Quintana. Los Angeles (110-59) looks to bounce-back from their 3-2 loss in Game Four of this series last night. The Dodgers have now played straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. These two teams have also now played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when battling in Wrigley Field. Los Angeles turns to their ace Kershaw who is 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP this season. The left-hander has a better ERA on the road with a 2.03 mark in thirteen regular season starts as compared to his 2.58 ERA in fourteen home starts. Kershaw was good in Game One of this series where he allowed two earned runs whole striking out four run 5 innings of work. The Under is a decisive 20-6-1 in their last 27 games with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record. The Dodgers have also played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total with Kershaw looking to stop a team losing streak. And in the last 12 games against the Cubs, the Under is 9-2-1 for Kershaw when he makes the start. He faces this Chicago team that is still struggling to score runs. Over their last seven games, the Cubs are scoring just 2.6 Runs-Per-Game with a .169 batting average along with a .230 On-Base Percentage and .498 OPS. Furthermore, the Under is 5-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Chicago (96-75) has now seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Cubs have also played 5 straight games Under the Total at home in Wrigley Field. And in their last 4 home games in the NLCS going back to last season, Chicago has played all 4 games Under the Total. They counter with Jose Quintana who is 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season between stints with the White Sox and then the Cubs. The left-hander has been tough in his three postseason appearances (two starts) in these playoffs where ehe has a 1.59 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP in 11 1/3 innings of work. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 4 games with Quintana facing a team with a winning record. Quintana’s teams have also played thirty-three of their last forty nine games with Quintana pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Lastly, the Under is 18-6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) and the Chicago Cubs (912) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-17 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Cubs |
Top |
11-1 |
Win
|
105 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (911) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Clayton Kershaw. Chicago (96-75) staved off elimination last night with their 3-2 victory over the Dodgers. And while Joe Maddon needed to exhaust his closer Wade Davis to eke out that game, the 48 pitches he threw last night will likely make him unavailable to pitch which is not a good sign for this team. Even with Davis’ good work of late, the Chicago bullpen still has a 5.40 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP over their last seven games. The Cubs still have to win three straight games to survive this series — and they have lost 4 straight games after a victory. Chicago has also lost 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Cubs have lost 8 of these games. They give the ball to Quintana who is 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this season. The left-hander has struggled in Wrigley Field since moving a few miles north after being traded to the Cubs from the White Sox this season. In eight starts as a Cub in Wrigley, Quintana has a 4.76 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.54 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road in a Cubs’ uniform.
Los Angeles (110-59) has still won eight of their last nine games as well as twelve of their last fourteen contests — and they have won a decisive 63 of their last 81 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Dodgers have also won 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They turn to their ace Kershaw who is 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP this season. The left-hander has a better ERA on the road with a 2.03 mark in thirteen regular season starts as compared to his 2.58 ERA in fourteen home starts. The Dodgers have won 23 of their last 31 road games with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record. Kershaw was good in Game One of this series where he allowed two earned runs whole striking out four run 5 innings of work. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last 5 games against Chicago with Kershaw on the hill. He faces this Chicago team that is still struggling to score runs. Over their last seven games, the Cubs are scoring just 2.6 Runs-Per-Game with a .169 batting average along with a .230 On-Base Percentage and .498 OPS. Chicago has lost 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Given the apparent mismatch between these two starting pitchers, the Dodgers are money-line favorites in the -160 range. Los Angeles has won 41 of their last 49 games with Kershaw pitching as a money-line favorite of at least -150. Lastly, because the Dodgers managed only four hits last night, they are supported by a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 64% effective since 1997. Los Angeles averages 4.1 Bases-on-Balls per game — and road favorites who average at least 4.0 Bases-on-Balls per game and who come off a game where they did not manage more than four hits have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the +115 to +160 price range) in 77 of the last 121 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (911) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-17 |
Dodgers +105 v. Cubs |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:01 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (967) versus the Chicago Cubs (968) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta. Los Angeles (110-58) looks to get out their brooms tonight and sweep this series after their 6-1 victory over the Cubs last night. The Dodgers have won eight straight games as well as twelve of their last thirteen contests — and they have won a decisive 41 of their last 54 games after winning at least three straight contests. Los Angeles has also won 59 of their last 74 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won all 6 straight of their games in these playoffs — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record on the road. They send out Wood who is 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.24 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts. The Dodgers have won 8 of their last 10 road games with Wood on the mound. He should thrive against this cold Cubs lineup that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .174 batting average with a .245 On-Base Percentage and .522 OPS over that span. Furthermore, the Cubs have lost 7 of their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Chicago (95-75) has now lost 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Cubs have also lost 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 8 home games in the NLCS, Chicago has lost 6 of these games. They counter with Jake Arrieta who is 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. But the Cubs have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Arrieta facing the Dodgers. He faces Dodgers team that is swinging good bats right now. Over their last seven games, Los Angeles is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .273 batting average along with a .383 On-Base Percentage and an .846 OPS over that span. 10* MLB Dodgers-Cubs TBS Special with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (967) versus the Chicago Cubs (968) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-17 |
Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 9:01 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (967) and the Chicago Cubs (968) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta. Chicago (95-75) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after their 6-1 loss to the Dodgers last night. The Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Chicago has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, not only have the Cubs played 4 straight home games Under the Total but they have also played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total at home when a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. I was a little surprised to the see the Total listed at 9.5 (as of this writing) when it opened — but Chicago has played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Arrieta who is 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in ten starts. Arrieta has been good in the playoffs throughout his career given his 3.33 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP in 46 innings of work. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 games with Arrieta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team that has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Los Angeles (110-58) has seen the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a victory. The Dodgers have also played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Alex Wood who is making his start this postseason. He seems to not be given much respect from the oddsmakers and the betting public with this Total in the 9 range. The left-handed enjoyed a breakout season where he posted a 16-3 record with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been outstanding on the road where he owns a 2.24 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .203 in thirteen starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average in fourteen games (twelve starts) at home. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Wood facing a team with a winning record. He should thrive against this cold Cubs lineup that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .174 batting average with a .245 On-Base Percentage and .522 OPS over that span. Furthermore, the Under is 4-0-1 in Chicago’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB National League Playoffs Total of the Year with Los Angeles Dodgers (967) and the Chicago Cubs (968) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-17 |
Astros v. Yankees -101 |
|
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (970) versus the Houston Astros (969) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Dallas Keuchel. New York (97-75) rallied from a 4-0 deficit last night to pull out a 6-4 victory to even this series at 2-2. The Yankees should build off the momentum they have seized in this series. New York has won 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees have also won 29 of their last 40 home games after a win by at least two runs. The Bronx Bombers have been tough to beat at home all season. They have won all 5 of their last playoff games at home. New York has won 21 of their last 28 games at home. Furthermore, the Yankees have won an incredible 42 of their last 59 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They give the ball to Tanaka who has a 13-12 record with an unappealing 4.74 ERA along with a 1.24 WHIP for the year. The right-hander has been much better at home this season where he enjoys a 3.22 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in fifteen starts. Tanaka pitches well in the postseason as well as he sports a 2.00 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP in 16 playoff innings. The veteran was awesome in Game Three of the ALDS where he allowed no earned runs in 7 innings of work in the Yankees 1-0 victory over the Indians. New York has won 16 of their last 21 home games with Tanaka facing a team with a winning record.
Houston (106-64) has now lost 7 of their last 9 games in the American League Championship Series. The Astros have also lost 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. Remember, this talented team lacks significant playoff experience — so they are learning how to win in the postseason on the fly. They give the ball to Dallas Keuchel who is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. But while the left-hander has been dominant at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts, those numbers rise to a 3.53 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. 20* MLB Astros-Yankees Fox Sports 1 Afternoon Special with the money-line on the New York Yankees (970) versus the Houston Astros (969) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-17 |
Astros v. Yankees OVER 7.5 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
PLEASE NOTE: The Play is the Under for this contest -- I accidentally hit the wrong tab (again) when inputting this play and I do not have the ability to easily correct this clerical error. I apologize for any inconvenience. Thanks, Frank. At 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (969) and the New York Yankees (970) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka. Houston (106-64) looks to bounce-back from their 6-4 loss to the Yankees that evened this series at 2-2. The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Houston has not scored more than four runs in their last four games — and they have scored only combined nine runs in those last four games. The Astros have then played a decisive 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total after scoring four runs or less in each of their last four games. They give the ball to Kuechel this afternoon who is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The left-hander raises his level of play in the postseason. In 26 2/3 innings in the playoffs, Kuechel has a 1.69 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP — and this includes an 0.71 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP in his 12 2/3 innings of work this postseason. Houston has played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Keuchel facing a team with a winning record. He faces a New York team that is hitting just .211 over their last seven games with a .292 On-Base Percentage and .655 OPS. The Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Keuchel loves pitching against the Yankees against whom he sports a 1.89 ERA in eight career starts.
New York (97-75) has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Tanaka who has a 13-12 record with an unappealing 4.74 ERA along with a 1.24 WHIP for the year. The right-hander has been much better at home this season where he enjoys a 3.22 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in fifteen starts. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 10 home games with Tanaka on the mound. Tanaka pitches well in the postseason as well as he sports a 2.00 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP in 16 playoff innings. The veteran was awesome in Game Three of the ALDS where he allowed no earned runs in 7 innings of work in the Yankees 1-0 victory over the Indians. He should fare well against this Astros team that is hitting just .238 over their last seven games with a .318 On-Base Percentage and a .677 OPS. Lastly, Houston has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (969) and the New York Yankees (970) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-17 |
Dodgers +101 v. Cubs |
Top |
6-1 |
Win
|
101 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the Chicago Cubs (964) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Los Angeles (109-58) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Sunday with their 4-1 victory over the Cubs. The Dodgers are on fire having won seven straight games along with eleven of their last twelve contests. Some bettors might think that Los Angeles is due for a loss having won so many games in a row — with this logic being similar to bettors betting on red after seeing black one too many times in a row at a roulette table. That thinking would quickly bankrupt you if applied to this 2017 Dodgers team. Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 53 games after winning at least three straight games. The Dodgers have also won 62 of their last 80 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 58 of their last 73 games after a victory. And in their last 26 games after an off day, the Dodgers have won 20 of these contests. Furthermore, LA has won 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have won 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Darvish who is 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander made nine starts with the Dodgers after being traded to them from the Rangers — and he was more effective when the road. Dervish was 3-1 in five road starts with LA with a 2.30 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. He should thrive against this Cubs offense that is struggling to hit — over their last seven games, they are scoring just 2.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .162 batting average along with a .235 On-Base Percentage and .492 OPS.
Chicago (95-74) returns home for this must-win situation down 0-2 in this series. It is difficult to repeat as champions in all sports with that initial passion and drive to reach the mountaintop just not as strong the second time around. The fact that this team has now lost 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% could be a harbinger for things to come. The Cubs have also lost 7 of their lat 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — so Wrigley Field has not been a safe haven as low late. Furthermore, this Chicago team has lost 5 of their last 7 home games in the NLCS going back to last year and beyond. They counter with Kyle Hendricks who is 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.20 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home as compared to his 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road. And while Hendricks was outstanding in last year’s playoff run, he has not been quite as dominant this postseason given his 3.27 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP in 11 innings spanning two starts. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, this Cubs’ bullpen has really struggled as of late with a 7.03 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP over their last seven games. The Chicago bullpen has a mediocre 4.03 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP at home this year. On the other hand, the Dodgers’ bullpen has a 1.71 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP in their last seven games — and they have a superior 3.95 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP on the road when compared to the Cubs’ pen at home. 25* MLB National League Playoffs Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the Chicago Cubs (964) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-17 |
Astros v. Yankees -138 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 5:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (966) versus the Houston Astros (965) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Lance McCullers. New York (96-75) won Game Three of this series last night with their 8-1 victory over the Astros. The Yankees look to even this series at 2-2 this afternoon — and they have now won 4 straight home games in the playoffs. New York has also won 20 of their last 28 home games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. The Yankees have also won 25 of their last 33 home games with the Total in the 8 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Gray who is 10-12 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home this season between his time with the Yankees and A’s given his 1.16 WHIP and .214 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 1.27 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. Gray will be supported by the superior bullpen in this series. The Yankees’ pen has a 2.55 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP in their last seven games — and that group compiled a 3.10 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP at home this year.
Houston (106-63) has now lost 6 of their last 8 games in the American League Championship Series. The Astros have also lost 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs away from home. They give the ball to McCullers who is making his first start this postseason. McCullers had a 7-4 record with a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season that was shortened due to injuries. But while the right-hander had a 3.04 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home, those numbers exploded to a 5.14 ERA along with a 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Astros have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with McCullers on the mound. Houston has also lost 6 of their last 7 games with McCullers pitching in the second-half of the season. He faces a New York team that has won 42 of their last 61 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 20* MLB Astros-Yankees’ Fox Sports 1 Special with the money-line on the New York Yankees (966) versus the Houston Astros (965) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-17 |
Astros v. Yankees OVER 8.5 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 5:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Sonny Gray. Houston (106-63) looks to bounce-back from their 8-1 loss to the Yankees last night. The Astros have now played 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road Over the Total. Houston has also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total in the road going back to the regular season. They give the ball to McCullers who is making his first start this postseason. McCullers had a 7-4 record with a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season that was shortened due to injuries. But while the right-hander had a 3.04 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home, those numbers exploded to a 5.14 ERA along with a 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Astros have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with McCullers on the mound.
New York (96-75) has scored 24 runs in their four playoff games at home this season. The Yankees have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Over is 20-8-3 in New York’s last 31 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall. They give the ball to Gray who is 10-12 with a 3.35 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP this season between pitching with Oakland and then New York after that midseason trade. Gray does have a troubling 5.65 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP in his five starts as a Yankee at home. He faces this Astros team that has scored 6.1 Runs-Per-Game when on the road. Lastly, in the last 8 meetings between these two teams in the Bronx, the game finished Over the Total 6 times. 10* MLB Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-17 |
Astros v. Yankees -131 |
Top |
1-8 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (910) versus the Houston Astros (909) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Charlie Morton. New York (95-75) returns home to the Bronx in a desperate situation down 0-2 in this series after their 2-1 loss to the Astros on Saturday. The Yankees have rebounded to win 18 of their last 24 games after a loss — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. And while New York has now lost four straight games to the Astros going back to the regular season, they have then won 22 of their last 33 games when playing with at least double-revenge against their opponents. Being back in Yankee Stadium with their energetic crowd will help. New York has won 40 of their last 57 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Yankees have also won 24 of their last 32 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They have the right starting pitcher on the mound tonight in Sabathia with which they have won 10 of the last 12 games when needing to stop a losing streak. Sabathia is 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season — and he has been more effective at home where he has a 1.23 WHIP and .243 opponent’s batting average in thirteen regular season starts as compared to his 1.32 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in fourteen regular season starts on the road. The Yankees ave won 13 of their last 16 home games with Sabathia on the mound.
Houston (106-62) is a franchise that has still lost 5 of their last 7 games in the Championship Series — so they may begin to feel the pressure of the moment as they get closer to reaching the World Series. They counter with Charlie Morton who is 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .247 WHIP in nine regular season starts as compared to his 3.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts at home. He faces a New York team that clobbers the ball at home. The Yankees are scorn 5.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .265 batting average along with a .342 On-Base Percentage and .803 OPS. Additionally, New York has won 19 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Finally, if this game goes to the bullpens, the Yankees should have the edge. The Astros’ pen has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP over their last seven games while the Yankees have a 2.39 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP over their last seven. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Yankees (910) versus the Houston Astros (909) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-17 |
Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:38 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Rich Hill. The money-line quickly moved to place the Dodgers as money-line favorites in the -155 range — and that is a Black Hole area for us as I don’t like taking money-line favorites (or the accompanying dog) nor Run-Line Dogs (or the accompanying Run-Line Favorite) when the price is above -150 that betting favorite. I think there is a strong side play out there that I will release before game-time if I see enough line movement to have it fit into my self-imposed guidelines. If that line-movement does not occur, I will still release this opinion as a free play by 7 PM ET (FYI) -- UPDATE: I missed the 30 minute deadline at this site -- I liked the Cubs +1.5 Run-Line but it still priced at -155 across the board. The Over remains a solid investment tonight. Chicago (95-73) looks to bounce-back from their 5-2 loss to the Dodgers in the opening game of this series. The Over is then 13-6-1 in the Cubs’ last 20 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 3-1-2 in Chicago’s last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They give the ball to Lester who is 13-8 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has been saddled with a 4.41 ERA along with a 1.38 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 4.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .254 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts at home. The Cubs have played 7 straight road games Over the Total with Lester pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. And while Lester was strong in his previous start in the postseason where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work against the Nationals (Lester later had a lengthy bullpen stint in Game Four of that series), Chicago has played 24 of their last 31 road games Over the Total when Lester is looking to follow up a start where he allowed only one earned run. He faces a hot-hitting Los Angeles team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .358 On-Base Percentage and .771 OPS over that span. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Keep in mind that if Lester gets in trouble in this game, the Cubs’ bullpen has a 6.49 ERA along with a 1.67 WHIP in their last seven games.
Los Angeles (108-58) has played a decisive 37 of their last 64 games Over the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And while the Dodgers’ bullpen held the Cubs scoreless last night, they have then played 41 of their last 70 games Over the Total after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning. They counter with Rich Hill who is 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP this season. In 20 postseason innings, Hill has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Additionally, the Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Hill on the mound. Lastly, the Cubs have seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-17 |
Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7 |
|
2-5 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Clayton Kershaw. Los Angeles (107-58) reached the NLCS with their 3-1 in in Arizona on Monday. The Dodgers did not allow an earned run from their bullpen in that game — and they have played 41 of their last 70 games after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run. Los Angeles stranded ten runners in that contest — and they have played 47 of their last 74 games Over the Total after stranding at least ten runners in their last game. They give the ball to Kershaw who is 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.58 mark in fourteen starts this year. Of more concern is the regression that Kershaw sees in the postseason. Overall, Kershaw has a 5-7 record with a 4.63 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 95 1/3 innings of work. He has allowed four earned in the 6 1/3 innings that he started in these playoffs against the Diamondbacks which sent a big signal to me that he is simply not over his postseason problems. He faces a veteran and confidence Cubs team that hits lefties very well. Chicago averages 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .271 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and .789 OPS.
Chicago (95-72) enters this series after surviving a 9-8 victory over Washington in the climactic Game Five of their series on Thursday. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Kershaw facing a team that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 12-5-1 in the Cubs last 18 games against an opponent that allowed two runs or less in their last contest. Now Chicago goes back on the road where the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cubs have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total in the playoffs. They counter with Jose Quintana who is 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this season. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .282 batting average along with a .364 On-Base Percentage and .793 OPS over that span. Lastly, the Dodgers have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 3* MLB Cubs-Dodgers’ TBS O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-17 |
Yankees v. Astros -130 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (906) versus the New York Yankees (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Luis Severino. Houston (105-62) won the opening game of this series last night with a 2-1 win (that including a two-out home run from the Yankees to break up that shutout that ruined our big Run-Line play). The Astros should off this momentum this afternoon as they have won five of their last six games — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games after a victory — and they have won 13 of their last 17 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, Houston has won 14 of their last 16 games at home — and that includes winning 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Verlander who is 15-8 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been outstanding for the Astros this season with his 5-0 record in five regular season starts along with a 1.06 ERA and 0.65 WHIP along with a superb 43:5 strikeout to walk ratio. In two regular season starts at home, Verlander had an 0.64 ERA with a 0.50 WHIP and 0.93 WHIP in two starts at home in Minutemaid Park. Verlander’s teams have won 13 of their last 15 games when coming off a win. Kate Upton’s fiance was very good in Game One of the ALDS against the Red Sox when he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work — and the Astros have won 5 straight games with Verlander on the mound looking to follow up a Quality Start. He should thrive against this Yankees team that is hitting just .205 with a .291 On-Base Percentage and a .651 OPS over their last seven games.
New York (95-74) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last night — and they have lost 17 of their last 25 games on the road after winning three of their last four games. The Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road overall. And in their last 7 road games in the playoffs, New York has lost 6 of these contests. The New York bullpen has not allowed an earned run in two straight games — but they have then lost 29 of their last 43 games after playing two straight games where they did not allow an earned run. The Yankees have also now lost 6 straight games in the American League Championship Series. They give the ball to their young fireballer Luis Severino who was 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in thirty-one starts in the regular season. But the right-hander has struggled in his two previous postseason starts in these playoffs with a 7.36 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 7 1/3 innings of work. He faces a Houston team that is hitting a crisp .292 with a .353 On-Base Percentage over their last seven games. Lastly, the Astros have won 21 of their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 20* MLB NY Yankees-Houston Game Two Fox-TV Special with the money-line on the Houston Astros (906) versus the New York Yankees (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-17 |
Yankees v. Astros UNDER 8 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
105 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
Please note: this play is on the Over. I initially mishit the play selection entry and lack the ability to correct this clerical error. I apologize for this error on my part. Thanks, Frank. At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Dallas Keuchel. Houston (104-62) closed out the Red Sox in four games in the American League Divisional Series with their 5-4 win in Boston on Monday. The Astros have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Houston has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after an off day. They give the ball to Kuechel who is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The Over is then 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games with Keuchel on the hill. He faces a Yankees’ team that has seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
New York (95-73) has won three straight games with their 5-2 win in Cleveland on Wednesday. The Yankees have not allowed more than three runs over those last three games — and they have then played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total after allowing three runs or less in each of their last three games. New York stays on the road where the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Over is also 12-5-2 in the Yankees’ last 19 road games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.48 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and .292 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 3.22 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home. New York has played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Tanaka on the hill. He faces this hot-hitting Houston team that is scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .289 batting average along with a .354 On-Base Percentage and .793 OPS over that span. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-17 |
Yankees v. Astros -1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (902) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (901) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka. New York (95-73) picked themselves off the mat falling 0-2 in their series with the Indians to win three straight games to advance to the American League Championship Series with their 5-2 victory on Wednesday. Expect a big letdown from this team now — and manager Joe Girardi may decide to save some of his bullpen arms if this one gets out of hand early. Certainly, this will be the least urgent game for the Yankees since Game One of the ALDS. As it is, New York has lost 17 of their last 25 road games after winning at least three straight games. The Yankees have also lost 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs on the road. And in their last 5 games in the ALCS, New York has lost all 5 contests. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.48 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and .292 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 3.22 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Tanaka facing a team with a winning record. Furthermore, New York has lost 4 straight games with Tanaka making the start agains the Astros. That is not a good sign when now this hot-hitting Houston team that is scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .289 batting average along with a .354 On-Base Percentage and .793 OPS over that span. Additionally, the Astros have won a decisive 42 of their last 62 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Houston (104-62) has won four of their last five games after dispatching of the Red Sox in four games in the ALDS with their 5-4 victory on Monday. The Astros have then won 18 of their last 24 games after a victory — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Houston has won 13 of their last 16 games at home. They give the ball to Dallas Keuchel who is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been very tough at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA along with an 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Astros have won 36 of their last 52 home games with Keuchel on the hill. He faces cold Yankees’ lineup that is hitting just .206 with their last seven games with a .287 On-Base Percentage and a .652 OPS over that span. Lastly, because Houston has a slugging percentage of .467, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective over the last five seasons. The Astros bullpen averages pitching 3.4 innings per game — and teams with a slugging percentage of at least .440 with a bullpen that averages at least 3.2 innings per game now facing an American League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 70 of the last 108 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (902) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (901) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-17 |
Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 |
|
9-8 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (959) and the Washington Nationals (960) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Gio Gonzalez. Chicago (94-72) has only scored eight runs in this series after being shutout last night by a 5-0 score. The Cubs have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after a lost. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. And in their last 40 games when priced in the +/- 125 range, the Cubs have played 27 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road this year where he enjoys a 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. The Cubs have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total with Hendricks on the hill. Hendricks was outstanding in Game One of this series as he held the Nationals scoreless in 7 innings of work where he scattered just two hits. Chicago has then played 5 straight games Under the Total with Hendricks looking to follow up a Quality Start — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Hendricks following a start where he allowed only one earned run. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .210 batting average along with a .290 On-Base Percentage and .640 OPS over that span. The Under is also 6-0-2 in the Nats’ last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Washington (99-67) has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last two games. The Nationals have also played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. Furthermore, Washington has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total as an underdog. They counter with Gio Gonzalez who is 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP — and his ERA drops to a 2.76 ERA in his fifteen starts at home. The Nationals have seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with Gonzalez pitching with four days of rest. And remember that manager Dusty Baker can turn back to Max Scherzer to pitch an inning or two in this game. The Washington pitching staff will face this Cubs team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .193 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and a .580 OPS over that span. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (959) and the Washington Nationals (960) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-17 |
Cubs -105 v. Nationals |
Top |
9-8 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (959) versus the Washington Nationals (960) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Gio Gonzalez. In this winner-take-all single elimination contest, expect the reigning World Series Champions to bounce-back with a victory tonight. Washington (99-67) forced a climactic fifth game in this series last night with their 5-0 shutout victory. But in a one-game playoff, I have much more faith in the managerial skill of Joe Maddon over Dusty Baker who has seen his teams lose 8 of the 12 elimination games that he has managed in his career even after yesterday. Furthermore, with all the drama and emotion surrounding Stephen Strasburg-Gate, this is a team primed for an emotional letdown after surviving that elimination game on the road yesterday. The Nationals return home where they have lost 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home — so there will be a nervous energy in Washington with fans perhaps expecting bad things to happen. And while the Nationals have not allowed more than three runs in any game in this series, they have then lost 17 of their last 24 games after not allowing more than three runs in at least four straight games. They give the ball to Gonzales how is 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 1.20 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 1.16 WHIP and .208 opponent’s batting average in seventeen starts on the road. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 games with Gonzalez pitching on four days of rest. Gonzalez also has mediocre numbers in the playoffs given his 4.24 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts in 23 1/3 innings of work. And in their last 5 games with Gonzalez facing a team these Cubs, the Nationals have lost 4 of these games.
Chicago (94-72) should be calm in this contest given their experience from last year where they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Indians in the World Series. As it is, the Cubs have won 30 of their last 41 games after a loss. Chicago has also won 5 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cubs have not hit a home run in the last two games of this series — but they have then won 25 of their last 36 road games after failing to hit a home run for two straight games. This is a great road team that has won a decisive 70 of their last 105 road games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range over the last two seasons. Chicago has also won 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road this year where he enjoys a 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. Hendricks has a proven track record in the postseason where he sports a 1.98 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in eight playoff starts spanning 41 innings of work. Furthermore, the Cubs have won 8 of their last 10 games with Hendricks on the hill after a game where they did not score more than two earned runs in their last game. 25* MLB Cubs-Nationals Game Five *A-List* Special with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (959) versus the Washington Nationals (960) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-17 |
Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5 |
|
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Corey Kluber. Cleveland (104-62) looks to bounce-back from their 7-3 loss to the Yankees on Monday which evened this series at 2-2. The Indians have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Cleveland has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Kluber who is looking to redeem himself from a rough performance when he allowed six earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work in Game One of this series. The right-hander had an 18-4 record with a 2.25 ERA and 0.87 WHIP this season. Kluber has been very tough at home where he had 1.81 ERA along with a 0.81 WHIP and .197 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts at home as opposed to his 2.83 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and .210 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Indians have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with Kluber on the hill. He faces a cold Yankees team that is hitting only .206 over their last seven games with a .291 On-Base Percentage and .660 OPS over that span.
New York (94-73) has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory. The Yankees have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They counter with C.C. Sabathia who is 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. The veteran lefty has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.18 ERA in fourteen starts as compared to his 4.20 ERA in thirteen starts at home. The Under is 8-3-1 in New York’s last 21 road games against teams with a winning record. He faces an Indians team that is hitting just .179 with a .291 On-Base Percentage and .596 OPS over his last seven games. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Corey Kluber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-17 |
Yankees +1.5 v. Indians |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (915) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Corey Kluber. I hate this situation for Cleveland (104-62). After winning the first two games of this series after eking out the second game of this series at home by a 9-8 score in 13 innings. The Indians then lost both games played in New York and now return home for this climactic fifth game with the entire city fully aware that they have lost six straight winner-take-all games in the MLB Playoffs. Furthermore, a loss by Cleveland tonight will make the Indians team the first team in MLB history to blow a playoff series with at least a two-game lead at one — with the nightmare of losing last year’s World Series on the mind of everyone in that stadium tonight. Additionally, the Indians have also lost sixteen of their nineteen games when they have the opportunity to clinch a playoff series. They are swinging very cold bats right now as they have a .170 batting average with just 18 hits over the last three games spanning 31 innings. Cleveland has then lost 30 of their last 46 games when not hitting better than .175 over their last three games. The Indians have also lost 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs with the memories of their World Series collapse looming. Cleveland has also lost 4 of their last 5 Game Fives. They give the ball to their ace Kluber who is 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP this season. But Kluber’s confidence may be shaky after he allowed six earned runs in 2 2/3 innings of work in Game One of this series. Furthermore, not only has Cleveland lost 24 of their last 43 games with Kluber looking to stop a losing streak but they have also lost 5 of their last 7 games with Kluber pitching after a game where they allowed at least five earned runs.
New York (94-73) will be playing with tons of confidence and very little pressure since this young team was considered a year away. The experience and leadership of manager Joe Girardi offers them a big psychological advantage in this game. The Yankees have won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. New York has also won 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 games on the road with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range, the Yankees have won 10 of these contests. Furthermore, this New York team has won an incredible 15 of their last 28 games straight-up when a big money-line underdog priced in the +175 to +250 range. They give the ball to their veteran leader C.C. Sabathia who is 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. His 112 2/3 innings of postseason work in his career will have him prepared for this moment. Sabathia was solid in the opening game of this series when he allowed two earned runs on just three hits in 5 2/3 innings of work. Girardi also has the benefit of two super relievers in David Robertson and Aroldis Chapman as well as his entire starting staff for this contest. Sabathia has had a better ERA on the road where he had a 3.18 ERA in fourteen start as compared to his 4.20 ERA in thirteen starts when at home. The Yankees have won 11 of their last 15 games with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record. Lastly, while the Yankees are hitting just .208 over their last five games, that helps support them with a 65% effective specific to the Run-Line over the last five seasons. Cleveland is hitting .260 this season — and American League road underdogs with a batting average no better than .265 for the season but hitting less than .225 over their last five games now facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or less (Cleveland bullpen: 2.84 ERA) have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 85 of the last 133 situations where these conditions applied. The Yankees could pull the upset tonight but take the advantage of the +1.5 Run-Line with them reasonably priced. 25* MLB Divisional Playoffs Run-Line of the Year with the New York Yankees (915) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Corey Kluber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-17 |
Nationals v. Cubs -114 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-114 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (918)versus the Washington Nationals (917) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Stephen Strasburg. As I have suspected since Game Four of this series was rained out yesterday, Washington (98-47) will be going with Strasburg on the mound after all. At this point, who knows what is going on behind the scenes. Strasburg claimed to be wheezing after a morning run yesterday and declared himself unable to pitch both yesterday and today even with his normal four days of rest. There is talk about mold in the Nationals’ hotel room impacting the health of the team. Yet it was only the delicate flower Strasburg who declared himself out for this afternoon’s game. Manager Dusty Baker covered for him in press conferences. It now looks like someone got to Strasburg (my guess is that it was his agent Scott Boras) as he declared this morning that he could pitch if needed — and now he will be taking the hill tonight. Well, how much confidence should we have in a starting pitcher who was reluctant to take the challenge? And if he is under the weather, isn’t that a Wednesday afternoon decision rather than a Tuesday morning declaration? The good news is that Strasburg pitching tonight has lowered the money-line on the Cubs to the -115 to -125 range — so lets attack that money-line with the Cubs. The Nationals have lost four of their last five games after their deflating loss last night. It might be tough for this team to get off the mat now after blowing the great pitching performance by Max Scherzer who gave up just one base hit before being pulled — and now add in this Strasburg mess. The Nationals have now lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record. Washington has also lost 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs which has to be wearing on this team’s confidence. Strasburg is 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.06 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 0.97 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts at home. Boy, will the pressure be on this snowflake today.
Chicago (94-71) is hot — they have won six of their last eight games after their 2-1 comeback victory on Monday. The Cubs have then won 17 of their last 24 games after a victory. Chicago has won 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 home games in the Divisional Playoffs, the Cubs have won all 5 games. As they showed on Monday by scoring two runs after the 6th inning after being inspired by Bill Murray’s rendition of “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” (BTW, how did I never know Mad Men’s Freddie Rumsen was Bill Murray’s brother?), the Cubs have a significant advantage at home in the playoffs. They give the ball to Arrieta who is well rested having not pitched since September 26th. This is not a worry for me as the veteran has made seven starts in the postseason including playing a key role in their successful World Series run last year. For the year, the right-hander has a 14-10 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. Arrieta has been even better at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 3.87 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .251 opponent’s batting average in twenty starts on the road. The Cubs have won 5 of their last 7 home games against with Arrieta facing a team with a winning record. He should continue to stymie this Nationals team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .237 batting average along with a .310 On-Base Percentage and .682 OPS over that span. 20* Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (918) versus the Washington Nationals (917) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-17 |
Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -101 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-101 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
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At 10:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Yu Darvish. Arizona (94-71) finds themselves on the brink of elimination after losing the first two games of this series after their 8-5 loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Look for the Diamondbacks to pick themselves off the mat as they have won 4 straight games after dropping the first two games in a series. Arizona has also won 17 of their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while the first two games of this series have finished Over the Total, the Diamondbacks have then won 12 of their last 14 games after playing two straight games Over the Total. This team returns home where they have won 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Greinke who is 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP this season. I look for Greinke to outduel Darvish tonight. He will have something to prove after getting shelled for four runs in 3 2/3 innings last Wednesday in the NL Wildcard game versus Colorado. Greinke has a huge edge in playoff experience with his 62 innings in his career far surpassing Darvish’s 11 2/3 of postseason work. Greinke finished the regular season at home with a 2.87 ERA along with a 0.96 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts. Furthermore, Arizona has won 16 of the 19 home games that Darvish has taken the mound this season. He should bring it against this Los Angeles team that has lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Dodgers have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Los Angeles (106-58) may experience trouble closing this series out with the memory of their big losing streak in the month of August. This Diamondbacks team had their number during the regular season — the Dodgers have lost 6 of their last 8 games against Arizona even after winning the first two games in this series. Los Angeles has lost 13 of their last 18 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also lost 28 of their last 40 road games after losing two straight games at home. LA has also lost 6 straight road games after playing at least four straight games against fellow NL West rivals. Furthermore, the Dodgers have lost 9 of their last 13 third games to a series. And in their last 70 games that are priced in the +/- 125 price range, Los Angeles has lost 41 of these near toss ups. They send out Yu Darvish who is 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season. He is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his 11 2/3 innings of work in the postseason in his career. He faces a desperate Diamondbacks team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 20* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-09-17 |
Nationals -107 v. Cubs |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 4:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (905) versus the Chicago Cubs (906) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jose Quintana. Washington (98-66) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 6-3 win over the Cubbies. The Nationals have then won 5 of their last 7 games after an off-day. Washington has also been capable road warriors this season as they have won 36 of their last 53 road games against teams with a winning record. The Nationals have also won 12 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. They send out Max Scherzer — and it is Scherzer we are trusting in his duel with Quintana. The right-hander has been tough again this season with his 16-6 record along with a 2.51 ERA and 0.90 WHIP this season. He has been even better when on the road where he enjoys a 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .156 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts. The Nationals have won 6 of their last 8 road games with Scherzer facing a team with a winning record. Scherzer is pitching great right now as he enjoys a 1.65 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP over his last three starts with a 22:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those 16 1/3 innings of work. He should fare well against this Cubs team that is hitting just .211 over their last seven games with a .278 On-Base Percentage and .631 OPS.
Chicago (93-71) saw their bullpen let them down on Saturday as they surrendered five runs in the 8th inning for that 6-3 loss. The Cubs have then lost 9 of their last 13 games after a game where their bullpen gave up at least four runs. Chicago returns home to Wrigley Field where they have lost 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Jose Quintana who I expect to get out-pitched this afternoon. For the season, the left-hander has a 4.15 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP. This will be his first game ever in the postseason after spending most of his career with the White Sox — and this puts him at a significant disadvantage in playoff experience relative to Scherzer who has 74 2/3 playoff innings under his belt. Quintana has not been as effective at home at Wrigley Field for the Cubs this year where he has a 4.76 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and 238 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 2.54 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Quintana’s teams have lost 5 of their last 6 home games when a money-line underdog priced at least at +100. He faces a Washington team that has won 4 of their last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. And in the Nationals last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower, they have won 5 of these games. 25* MLB Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (905) versus the Chicago Cubs (906) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-09-17 |
Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Boston Red Sox (910) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Rick Porcello. Boston (94-71) staved off elimination on Sunday with their 10-3 victory over the Astros to make this a 2-1 series entering Game Four this afternoon. The oddsmakers have set this Total in the 10-10.5 range given that at least ten runs have been scored in all three of these games in this series. Still, lets go with the Over when considering that these two teams have played 23 of their last 32 meetings Over the Total which includes eight of the last ten games played in Fenway Park going Over the Total. Boston has played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total at home after scoring at least ten runs in their last game. The Red Sox have also played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total, in general. Furthermore, Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They give the ball to Porcello who I joked yesterday had fallen so out of favor with this team that they chose to rely on Doug Fister in their elimination game yesterday. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner struggled with an 11-17 record with a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been even less effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.43 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .306 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Porcello on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Houston team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .303 batting average along with a .371 On-Base Percentage and an .837 OPS. The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Houston (103-62) saw their bullpen give up seven runs in defeat yesterday. The Astros have then played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after their bullpen allowed at least six runs in their last game. Houston has now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Astros have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road. And in their last 51 games when priced in the +/- 125 price range, Houston has played 32 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Charlie Morton who is 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has 4.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 3.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts at home. The Astros have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Morton on the mound after a game where they allowed at least five runs in their last game. Lastly, the Red Sox have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Houston-Boston Afternoon O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Boston Red Sox (910) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-09-17 |
Astros -113 v. Red Sox |
|
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
Take the Houston Astros with the money-line versus the Boston Red Sox listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Rick Porcello. Houston (103-62) looks to bounce-back from their 10-3 loss to the Red Sox yesterday in Game Three of this series. The Astros have rebounded to win 41 of their last 59 games after a loss. Houston has also won 7 of their last 9 games on the road. Boston (94-71) has still lost 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Red Sox have lost 5 of these games. Take Boston with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports split out on Sunday going 3-3 in All-Sports — WINNING with the Bengals, the Seahawks and their 5* MLB Under play with the Indians-Yankees while losing with the Astros, the Cowboys (ugh!) and the Texans (deflating Houston injuries!) — which keeps them on a SENSATIONAL 64% WINNING STREAK over their last 146 plays in All-Sports (94-52)! Frank was 1-2 in MLB action but remains on a SCORCHING HOT 18 of 23 (78%) MLB run and plans on a BUSY MONDAY in the MLB Playoffs! It all starts at 1:00 PM ET with the Houston-Boston O/U winner on Fox Sports 1! WATCH & WIN — then CA$H IT IN!
Frank CA$HED the Kansas City-Houston Over last night with his lone NFL Totals play yesterday to continue their 11 of 15 (73%) NFL TOTALS TEAR! Frank prepares for Monday Night Football on a RED HOT 32 of 46 (70%) NFL run that has continued his SENSATIONAL 68% NFL MARK over his last 74 NFL plays (50-24) — and now he UNLEASHES his 5* NFC North Total of the Month for tonight’s Minnesota-Chicago clash on ESPN! DON’T MISS OUT!
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10-08-17 |
Indians -104 v. Yankees |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-104 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (953) versus the New York Yankees (954) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. Cleveland (104-60) looks to close out this series tonight after taking a 2-0 lead with their 9-8 victory over the Yankees on Friday. The Indians have won a decisive 45 of their last 55 games after a victory. Cleveland has also won 42 of their last 54 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game, the Indians have won 4 of these games. Now they go on the road where they have won 10 of the last 12 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And in their last 9 games after an off day, Cleveland has won 8 of these games. They give the ball to Carrasco who is 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .210 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home. The Indians have won 36 of their last 52 road games with Carrasco on the hill — and this includes four straight winners on the road with Carrasco facing a team with a winning record.
New York (92-73) has lost 9 of their last 13 games after an off day. The Yankees have also now lost 7 of their last 8 games in a playoff contest. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Bronx Bombers have lost all 4 games. They counter with Masahiro Tanaka who is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander will be challenged against this Indians team that has won a decisive 40 of their last 53 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Look for the Indians to get out the brooms and sweep this series tonight. 10* MLB Indians-Yankees’ Fox Sports 1 Special with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (953) versus the New York Yankees (954) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-08-17 |
Indians v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (953) and the New York Yankees (954) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. New York (92-73) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after falling behind by a 2-0 margin in this series on Friday with their 9-8 loss to the Indians. The Yankees have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss. New York has also valued 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Now New York returns home to Yankee Stadium where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Yanks have also played 7 of their last 9 games in the playoffs at home Under the Total. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has been much better at home where he owns a 3.22 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 6.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .292 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 9 home games with Tanaka on the hill. He should pitch well against this Cleveland team that is hitting just .220 over their last seven games with a mediocre .324 On-Base Percentage and a .703 OPS over that span. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
Cleveland (104-60) has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. The Indians have also played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. And in their last 15 games after a game where at least fifteen combined runs were scored, Cleveland has played 13 of these games Under the Total. Now they go on the road where the Under is a decisive 39-18-7 in their last 64 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Indians have also played 6 of their last 7 playoff games on the road Under the Total. They counter with Carlos Carrasco who is 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .210 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home. Cleveland has played 13 of their last 15 road games Under the Total with Carrasco pitching as a money-line favorite priced no higher than -150. He should thrive against this Yankees team that is hitting just .219 over their last seven games with a .219 batting average along with a .292 On-Base Percentage and .687 OPS. 25* MLB Divisional Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (953) and the New York Yankees (954) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-08-17 |
Astros -128 v. Red Sox |
|
3-10 |
Loss |
-128 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 2:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (951) versus the Boston Red Sox (952) listing both starting pitchers Brad Peacock and Doug Fister. Houston (103-61) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 8-2 victory over the Red Sox. The Astros have then won 18 of their last 23 games after a victory — and they have won 21 of their last 27 games on the road after a win by at least four runs. Houston has also won 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. And in their last 8 games on the road, Houston has won 7 of these contests. And after wining Game One of this series by an identical 8-2 score, the Astros have then won 22 of their last 29 games on the road after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. They give the ball to Peacock who is 13-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.88 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seventeen games (twelve starts) as compared to his 3.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in seventeen games (nine starts) at home. The Astros have won 5 of their last 6 road games with Peacock facing a team with a winning record. He should fare well against this Boston team that is scoring just 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .239 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and .658 OPS over that span. The Red Sox have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Boston (93-71) has lost five of their last six games — and they have lost 8 straight games in October going back to their previous preseason appearances. The Red Sox have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Boston has lost 5 of their last 7 games at home. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Red Sox have lost 5 of these games. They counter with Doug Fister (my god, how far has Rick Porcello dropped?) who is 5-9 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been even worse at home where he has been saddled with a 4.94 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average in ten games (nine starts) as compared to his 4.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average in eight games (six starts) on the road. Fister’s teams have lost 14 of their last 18 games at home in the second-half of the season. He faces a hot-hitting Houston offense that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .309 batting average along with a .375 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .867. Lastly, the Astros have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 20* MLB Houston-Boston Fox Sports 1 Afternoon Special with the Houston Astros (951) versus the Boston Red Sox (952) listing both starting pitchers Brad Peacock and Doug Fister. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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