Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-16-17 | Capitals v. Penguins | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Washington Capitals. After winning five straight games, the Pens took to the road last Wednesday for a 3-game road trip. It started in D.C., against these Capitals, and the Pens lost, 5-2. They then followed up that defeat with two more -- at Ottawa (4-1) and at Detroit (6-3). But the Pens are back home tonight at the Igloo, where they're 18-2-2 this season. Even better: Pittsburgh is a sensational 11-1 at home off a road loss by 2+ goals, and 7-1 after surrendering 5+ goals. It also will enjoy an advantage conferred by the schedule, as Washington played last night, and will also be playing its 3rd game in four nights. Take Pittsburgh. NHL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Pittsburgh. This is a very difficult situation for the Steelers, who will be playing their first road game after three straight home games. And NFL road underdogs have gone 0-11 ATS since 1981 off a home playoff win, if they also were at home in their two games previous to that. Even worse for the Steelers: they blew out Kansas City 43-14 in early October. But the Chiefs are a super 20-10 ATS at home their last 30 when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-0 ATS vs. .715 (or worse) foes off a win. Take Kansas City. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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01-15-17 | Wild v. Blackhawks -124 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Blackhawks over the Minnesota Wild. The Blackhawks are in a familiar place - atop the Central Division where they've spent a good deal of time over the past eight years or so. And they were cruising right along last week having won four games in a row. But the cruise came to a brutal halt on Friday night in DC as the 'Hawks visited the Caps and promptly got throttled, 6-0 - Chicago's worst loss this season. How they respond tonight coming home after that will say a lot about whether this team is capable of making a run at its fourth Stanley Cup since 2010. And there's no team they'd rather soundly defeat coming off of that ugly loss than their current Division Rivals, the Wild. Minnesota has had Chicago's number lately, winning five straight meetings since the 'Hawks swept the Wild in the 2015 post-season. But the Wild's defense has struggled a bit of late, allowing 16 goals in four straight games before righting the ship a bit - but they gave up four again last night (although they beat the Stars). Since that Blackhawks loss was on Friday, they will be playing on one day of rest, and they are 8-1 in their last nine in that situation. The Wild is just 4-12 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago. Take the 'Hawks. NHL High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 154 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Dallas/Green Bay game. (Analysis to follow.) |
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01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -4 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 154 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Green Bay Packers. (Analysis to follow.) |
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01-14-17 | Oregon State +25.5 v. Oregon | Top | 43-85 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Oregon. Like many bitter rivalries, the underdog in this series has done very well when catching a lot of points. Indeed, since 1990, the dog has gone 8-3-1 when the line was more than 11 points. That bodes well for the Beavers. As does the fact that they're 10-2 ATS as a dog of +21 or more points since 1995. It's true that Oregon State has lost its last four games, including the two most recent by double-digits. But this rough patch has set up the Beavers in a super 89-32 ATS system of mine which plays on certain double-digit dogs off back to back losses, when playing a foe off back to back wins. We'll grab the points with Oregon State, and look for a relatively close ball game on Saturday night. NCAA Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots OVER 44.5 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 134 h 25 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Houston Texans to go 'over' the total. The Houston Texans score just 18.00 ppg, and give up just 20.11 (for 38.11 combined points per game). The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game. But NFL underdogs have gone 'over' in 24 of 32 Playoff games, if their games, on average, generated less than 39.3 ppg. And teams that average less than 20 points on offense have gone 'over' in seven straight playoff games. Additionally, six of the last eight meetings between these two franchises have gone 'over' the total. And New England has gone 'over' in 77 of its last 126 games, including 7-2-1 'under' at home in the playoffs. Take the 'over.' NFL Total of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-14-17 | Maryland v. Illinois -3 | Top | 62-56 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Maryland. These two teams met in late December, and the illini were mauled by Maryland, 84-59. They also lost the meeting previous to that (also at Maryland), by an almost identical score, 81-55. But you know what they say about "paybacks!" This game, of course, will be at the State Farm Center, and Illinois is 9-1 at home this season (4-3 ATS), and outscoring its foes by almost 16 ppg. The Illini blew out Michigan here in their last game, 85-69, and are a super 44-26 ATS at home off a home win, and 20-8 ATS following a game in which they scored 80+ points. The Illini also fall into a 95-36 ATS system of mine that plays on certain home teams off upset wins. Take Illinois minus the points. Big 10 Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-14-17 | Western Kentucky +14.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 76-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Middle Tennessee St. The Hilltoppers are off back to back SU/ATS losses, while Middle Tenn is off 4 wins, including a 69-57 win on Thursday vs. Marshall (as a 9-point favorite). But Western Kentucky has always done well off back to back losses, when playing a foe off a SU/ATS win, as it's cashed 63% over the past 27 years. And Middle Tenn is a money-burning 17-28 ATS off a double-digit win when playing an opponent off back to back losses. Take the Hilltoppers + the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 131 h 44 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Seattle Seahawks. Atlanta lost a 26-24 heartbreaker to the Seahawks earlier this year, when Steven Hauschka kicked the game-winner with 1:57 left to cap a 4th quarter rally which saw Seattle outscore the Falcons, 9-0, in the final frame. But NFL teams, with a win percentage between .600 and .750, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, have cashed 45 of 65 Playoff games, including a perfect 14-0 ATS if they lost by 3 points or less in that earlier game. Also, Seattle falls into negative 27-75 and 38-88 ATS systems of mine, based on its relatively poor offensive stats. To wit: Atlanta's offense has been 11.39 ppg better than Seattle's this season! And home teams with a much better offense (at least +3.0 ppg) have covered 62% in the Playoffs when not laying more than 7 points. Take Atlanta. NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-14-17 | Florida State v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Florida State. The Seminoles come into this afternoon's game off a nice win over Duke, and they're 16-1 on the season. Yet they've been installed as a big underdog vs. the Tar Heels, who are 15-3. The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with FSU. But be careful, as .910 (or better) teams are 0 for 11 ATS as underdogs of more than 5 points in conference games, at Game 16 forward, if they also owned a better record in conference play (by at least 10 percentage points). Faithful followers will recognize that we mined this angle for a nice win earlier this week on West Virginia over Baylor. We'll come right back with it on this Saturday afternoon. Take the Tar Heels minus the points. ACC Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-14-17 | VCU v. Davidson +1.5 | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats over VCU. Speaking of cold teams, the Wildcats are currently on a 5-game ATS losing streak, and are just 8-7 on the season (compared to VCU, which is 14-3 SU). But this lack of success has triggered a 91-45 ATS angle of mine which plays on certain inferior teams in competitively priced games. And Davidson's always been terrific in Conference "win situation" games, as it's 31-11 ATS when the line ranged from +3 to -3 points. Even better: it's 43-24 ATS in Conference games off a SU loss. Take the Wildcats. |
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01-14-17 | New Mexico +3 v. Colorado State | Top | 84-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State. The Rams are on a 2-game win streak, but they've been awful at home off back to back wins, with just 1 ATS win in their last 13 games! New Mexico, meanwhile, is on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak. But that won't deter me, as I generally like playing on 'cold' teams (as one can often get better pointspread value). New Mexico falls into a 363-230 ATS system of mine that tends to play on under-performing teams, so we'll take the points with the Lobos. |
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01-14-17 | Nebraska v. Michigan -8.5 | Top | 85-91 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Nebraska. John Beilein's men are off back to back losses, including an upset at the hands of Illinois on Wednesday. But the Wolves typically rebound well off defeats, as they're 62-38-1 ATS off a loss, dating back to 2008. Additionally, Michigan falls into a 110-50 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off an upset defeat, while Nebraska is a wallet-busting 0-15 ATS away from home vs. foes off an upset loss, when priced from +2 to +10 points. Take Michigan. |
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01-14-17 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 76-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Notre Dame. This is a great match-up in Blacksburg between the 15-2 Fighting Irish and 13-3 Hokies. We'll back the homestanding team, as it is 18-2 SU and 14-2 ATS at home since 2016, including a perfect 11-0 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes! More bad news for Notre Dame: it upset the Miami-Fla Hurricanes, 67-62, in its last game. But the Irish are a poor 6-11 ATS off a pointspread win, and also fall into a negative 35-81 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams off upset wins on the road. Take Virginia Tech. |
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01-13-17 | Jets -147 v. Coyotes | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -147 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Arizona Coyotes. Nobody would've bet on the Coyotes making the playoffs this season, but it's unlikely many would also have predicted they'd be as bad as this. With just 12 wins and 30 points at roughly the half-way point, Arizona is threatening to challenge the franchise low 56 points it put up just two seasons ago. They did manage to beat a very bad Islanders team last time out, but it took a shootout to do it and it was the Coyotes' first win in 10 games going back to the middle of December. Their biggest problem this season has been their defense, as the Coyotes lead the league with an average of 34 shots-against per game, and their 3.18 goals-against is bested only by the Avalanche (3.31). And that shots-against number is no better when they've been playing here at the Gila River Arena (34.1). It's virtually impossible for the offense to make up for that liability, especially when you consider the list of walking wounded on Arizona's front lines. No fewer than six offensive regulars are either questionable, out indefinitely, or on the I-R for the Coyotes at this time. The Jets are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-1 in the last six going back two years to January 2015. Take Winnipeg. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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01-13-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -7 | Top | 110-105 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz downed Houston, 115-109, earlier this season, so James Harden & Co. will be seeking to avenge that defeat. And Houston should be in a nasty mood tonight, as its 9-game win streak was snapped on Wednesday by the Timberwolves. We had a huge play on Minnesota in that game, so we weren't surprised that it pulled the upset. But we'll back Houston on this Friday, as it falls into a 100% perfect ATS system of mine. What we want to do is play on a revenge-minded favorite against a .555 (or better) foe, if our revenger is off an upset loss, and has a much better record than its opponent (by at least 14.2 percentage points). Since 1992, our revengers have gone 20-0 SU/ATS in the regular season, and have covered by an average of 9.37 ppg. Moreover, Memphis is a woeful 1-10 straight-up and 2-9 ATS their last 11 vs. revenge-minded foes that owned a win percentage greater than .400. Take Houston. NBA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Atlanta. Last year, the Hawks knocked out the Celtics from the Playoffs, so I look for Boston to avenge that series loss tonight. And Boston falls into a 97-69 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with revenge from playoff ousters. Even better: Atlanta comes into this game off four straight road wins (both SU and ATS), and seven straight wins, overall (6-1 ATS). But NBA teams have gone 8-29-1 ATS their last 38 following four straight road covers, including 1-13 ATS at home! Take Boston. NBA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-13-17 | Blue Jackets -125 v. Lightning | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Columbus Blue Jackets over Tampa Bay. We played on Tampa Bay last night against Buffalo, and got the $$$ with a 4-2 Lightning victory. Goalie Ben Bishop returned from injury to stop 24 of 26 Sabres shots, and the Lightning snapped a 4-game losing streak. But they're going to have to face a much tougher team tonight, in Columbus. And Ben Bishop will likely not be on the ice for the 2nd of back to back games. Columbus has dominated this series so far this season, with two blowout wins by scores of 5-3 and 5-1, and 38 shots on goal in each game. The Blue Jackets have dropped three of four games since their 16-game win streak, but Sergei Bobrovsky wasn't in goal for two of those three losses. He'll be back between the pipes tonight after being bit by the flu bug earlier this week, and we'll take Columbus on Friday night. |
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01-13-17 | Islanders v. Panthers OVER 5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Florida/New York game. These two team met on Wednesday, and the Panthers won, a low-scoring contest, 2-1. Coincidentally, that was the 3rd straight 2-1 suffered by the Islanders. I look for a much higher-scoring game tonight, though, as New York had gone 'over' in six straight (and 9 of 10) immediately prior to their last three games. New York has also gone 'over' the total 92 of 156 games on the road when the line was 5 goals or less. Take the 'over.' |
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01-12-17 | UCLA v. Colorado +7 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 11 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes + the points over UCLA. UCLA has been winning on the court, but it's been losing lately in Las Vegas, as it's 0-5 ATS its last five. The Buffs, on the other hand, have not been winning on the court, as they have lost their last three games, all against Pac-12 Conference foes. But each of those defeats was on the road. This will be Colorado's first home game this season in league play. And we'll grab the points with Tad Boyle's men, as they're a super 32-14 ATS at home off back to back losses when playing an opponent off an ATS defeat. Even worse for UCLA: it's 0-9 ATS away from home in the regular season if it lost against the spread in its last two lined games. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-12-17 | Purdue v. Iowa +5.5 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Purdue. These two teams met in West Lafayette on Dec. 28, and the Boilers had an easy time of it, with a 22-point win over the Hawkeyes. But Iowa's a terrific 75% at home over the past 27 seasons when catching 3+ points, and playing with revenge from a loss by 20+ points. And Purdue's a horrid 0-12 ATS away from home when priced as a favorite of 6.5 points or less against a foe playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat. Take Iowa. |
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01-12-17 | Ducks v. Avalanche OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Anaheim/Colorado game. Center Ryan Getzlaf has been upgraded to 'probable' for tonight's game, which was all I needed to pull the trigger on this play. I look for a high-scoring game, especially as the Avalanche gave up just one goal in their last game -- a 2-1 win vs. the Islanders. But Colorado has gone 'over' 74% in the past 3 seasons after giving up less than 2 goals in its previous game. And they've gone 'over' 71% the past two seasons off a win. Moreover, the Avs have gone 'under' in 3 straight overall, but they've played 'overs' 96 of 165 if their previous three went 'under.' This will be high-scoring. Take the 'over.' NHL Total of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-12-17 | Quinnipiac v. Siena -8 | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Siena Saints minus the points over Quinnipiac. it's true that the Saints haven't covered the spread since November 30, but they fall into 27-6, 120-68 and 158-94 ATS systems of mine, based on this very lack of success. It's also true that Quinnipiac has covered eight of 12 games this season. But Siena's a super 82-50-3 ATS since 1990 vs. foes with a .565 (or better) ATS win percentage. In its six home games this season, Siena's gone 5-1 SU and has held its foes to under 40% FG shooting. When these two teams met here last season, the Saints held the Bobcats to 65 points, on 34% FG shooting. Two years ago here, it was a similar story, as Siena blew out Quinnipiac, 88-67, and held it to 36% FG shooting. I look for Siena to once again shut down the Bobcats tonight. Lay the points. MAAC Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-12-17 | Sabres v. Lightning -162 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Buffalo Sabres. Some teams have goals during the regular season, like to win a division or reach a certain number of victories. But right now the Lightning's main objective for the remainder of the season is simple - stay close enough in the playoff hunt until they can get their star players back from the many health issues that have enveloped the team this season. Tonight could be a big step in that direction. LW Brian Boyle, out since the end of the year with a lower body injury, has been deemed ready to go and will play tonight. And #1 goalie Ben Bishop, who has also been on the sidelines for a prolonged period (since December 20) - also with a lower body injury - has been cleared to play and could be back between the pipes. Those would be two huge returns for the Bolts, but they still know that they have to get by without their #1 star, Steven Stamkos, until sometime in March. The Sabres beat up on a floundering Flyers team in their last game, but that may not bode well for them tonight as they are 20-41 in their last 61 games following a victory, and 3-14 off back to back wins. The Sabres are also 1-8 in the last nine meetings and 1-4 in the last five trips to Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Tampa is 25-7 at home following a game in which it gave up more than 3 goals. Take the Bolts. NHL Roadkill Play. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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01-12-17 | Drexel +10.5 v. Northeastern | Top | 75-92 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Drexel Dragons + the points over Northeastern. These two Colonial Athletic Ass'n rivals met just 10 days ago in Philly, and Northeastern eked out a 75-70 win, as a 4.5-point favorite. We'll take Drexel in this re-match, as the Dragons are a super 30-11 ATS in the regular season when playing on the road with revenge from a home loss, including 9-0 ATS their last nine when priced from +8 to +13 points. Take Drexel. |
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01-11-17 | Rockets v. Wolves +4 | Top | 105-119 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves over the Houston Rockets. Mike D'Antoni's men are on a 9-game win streak, yet find themselves favored by a small number at Minnesota, which has not even won a third of its games this season! The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on Houston, but that's generally going to be the wrong move. Indeed, I have a system which is 33-8 ATS that goes against certain teams on 9-game (or greater) win streaks that are not favored by a lot of points. Coincidentally, the last time this angle popped was back on December 17, when Houston was also on a 9-game win streak -- and also playing these Timberwolves. The Rockets were favored by 2.5 in that game, but failed to cover the spread in overtime, in a 111-109 victory. But the Rockets were actually fortunate just to get to overtime, as Minnesota blew a big 9-point lead with a minute left. I look for Minny to finish the deal this time. Take the T-Wolves + the points. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-11-17 | North Dakota State +1 v. South Dakota | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the North Dakota State Bison over the South Dakota Jackrabbits. South Dakota State is 12-7 straight-up, and 12-3-1 ATS on the season and its SU/ATS success has set it up in a negative 44-98 ATS "contrarian" system of mine which fades certain with strong records. Tonight, it will face a Bison squad which it defeated, 72-58, in the last meeting. But North Dakota State had won eight of the previous nine games between the schools prior to that loss. And North Dakota State has cashed 75% on the road since 2006 when playing with revenge against a foe off back-to-back wins. Meanwhile, South Dakota has covered a paltry 28% off a SU/ATS win when playing a revenge-minded foe. Take the Bison. Below the Radar Rout! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-11-17 | Knicks -2 v. 76ers | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks over the Philly 76ers. The Sixers are 10-25 on the season, and come into this game off four straight ATS wins (and 3 straight-up wins) in their last four games. But I love fading poor teams off wins. And will take New York tonight, as Philly is a money-burning 18-28 ATS off a SU/ATS wins when playing a foe off a SU/ATS loss. Also, .320 (or worse) NBA teams, off 4 ATS wins, have covered just 37% of division games over the past 27 seasons, including 0-10 ATS since 2012. Take New York. NBA Division Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-10-17 | Stars v. Ducks -155 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Ducks over the Dallas Stars. The Stars defeated Anaheim twice in Dallas earlier this season, by scores of 6-2 and 4-2. But we'll jump on the Ducks here at the Pond, as Anaheim is 56-23 at home when playing with double revenge. Meanwhile, Dallas will be playing for the 2nd time in two nights (after defeating L.A. last night, 6-4), and for the third time in four nights. And Dallas is a woeful 4-13 when playing for the third time in four nights, and 1-7 off a win by more than a goal. Take Anaheim. NHL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-10-17 | Flyers -108 v. Sabres | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Flyers over the Buffalo Sabres. All of a sudden the Sabres find themselves pretty thin, especially on the defensive side of the ice. D Dmitry Kulikov has been out with a back injury for the past five games and probably won't play tonight. Then Josh Gorges had to miss the last game on Saturday with a hip injury despite skating with the team in the pre-game practice (he was a late scratch). Finally, during that game - a 4-3 victory over the Jets - in perhaps the most ironic injury to the Sabres blue line, Jake McCabe leveled a huge hit on the the Jets' Patrik Laine, in which Laine was essentially knocked out cold. But the hit also caused a cut and perhaps some other injury to McCabe as well, and now it is questionable whether he will play tonight. Buffalo is hurting on the front line too, with an on-going groin injury to LW Tyler Innes, season-ending surgery to C Johan Larsson, and a case of the flu bug that has kept C/LW William Carrier out, and will also sideline #1 goalie Robin Lehner today (so Anders Nilsson will start). The Flyers are 14-5 in the last 19 meetings and 5-0 in their last five vs. teams from the Atlantic Division. Meanwhile, the Sabres are 19-41 in their last 60 games following a win and they're also 9-21 in their last 30 games when playing on two days rest. Take Philly. NHL Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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01-10-17 | Baylor v. West Virginia -5.5 | Top | 68-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Baylor. Scott Drew's Bears are 15-0 on the season (and 3-0 in Big 12 play), but have been installed as a big underdog in Morgantown against the Mountaineers, who are 13-2 overall, and 2-1 in league play. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the #1 ranked team in the country -- especially as a dog -- but I wouldn't do that if I were you. Consider that, at Game 16 forward, .910 (or better) teams are 0 for 10 ATS as underdogs of more than 5 points in conference games, if they also owned a better record in conference play (by at least 10 percentage points). Moreover, WVU is 30-6 SU and 24-12 ATS in its last 36 lined home games. Take the Mountaineers. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-10-17 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +12 | Top | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Kentucky. The Wildcats check into this game off back to back blowout wins over Texas A&M (100-58) and Arkansas (97-71). But Kentucky's an awful 5-29-1 ATS off back to back wins by 20+ points, if it was priced from -3.5 to -27 points, and didn't have a losing ATS record, including 0-8 ATS on the road. Additionally, Vandy falls into 121-54 and 149-99 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home underdogs in conference games against top-level teams. Take the Commodores. Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +6 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 209 h 3 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Jan. 9, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide. (Analysis to follow.) |
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01-09-17 | Flames v. Jets -130 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Calgary Flames. Two teams that are treading water in the Western Conference meet tonight in Winnipeg. For the Flames, right wing Troy Brouwer was their own version of an Iron Man, having played in 309 consecutive games. That is until his own teammate - Kris Versteeg - hit him in the hand with a shot, breaking his pinkie finger. A broken pinkie may not sound like much, but Brouwer has now missed six games and will not be playing tonight either. The Flames have had major struggles scoring goals on the road this season. At home, the Flames are averaging 3.10 goals per game (8th best in the league), however when playing away from Calgary, they are scoring at a rate of just 2.24 per game (25th). The home team is 6-0 in the last six meetings of these two and 17-5-1 in the last 23. Last month, the Flames blew out the Jets, 6-2, but Winnipeg has gone 4-0 the past 2 years when playing with revenge from a loss by 4+ goals. Take the Jets. NHL High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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01-09-17 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Coastal Carolina -2 | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Arkansas Little Rock, as Coastal Carolina falls into a 94-36 ATS 'momentum' system of mine following its upset win on Saturday, 80-65, at home vs. Arkansas State. Overall, that was Coastal Carolina's 2nd straight upset win. And it's cashed 64.2% since 1991 off a win, if it wasn't favored by more than five points. Take Coastal Carolina minus the points. NCAA Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-09-17 | Troy State v. Georgia State -6 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over the Troy State Trojans. Georgia State has dropped six of its last seven vs. the pointspread, while Troy State has covered its last six (though it's 0-2 straight-up to start Sun Belt Conference play). But we'll lay the points with the relatively 'cold' Panthers, as Troy falls into a negative 45-102 ATS system of mine based on its ATS win streak. Additionally, the Panthers are a solid 58% ATS since 2009 as a favorite of more than 4 points, including 22-11 ATS when matched up against an opponent off back to back losses. Take Georgia State. Below the Radar Blowout! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-08-17 | Warriors -10 v. Kings | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Sacramento. The Warriors blew a huge lead on Friday, at home, to the Memphis Grizzlies. I look for them to bounce back on Sunday, and take out their frustrations on the Sacramento Kings. For technical support, consider that rested road favorites of more than nine points, off an upset loss as a favorite of -8 (or more) points, have cashed 69.69% since 1991. Take Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-08-17 | Cavs -9 v. Suns | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Suns upset Dallas, 102-95, on Thursday, and that was their second straight win, overall. We'll fade Phoenix as a home underdog on Sunday, as losing teams, off back to back wins, including an upset win in their last game, are an awful 34.09% ATS since 1991 as home dogs of more than +7 points. Take Cleveland. |
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01-08-17 | Rockets -1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 129-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over Toronto. The Raptors went into the Toyota Center earlier this season, and upset Houston, 115-102, as a 4-point underdog. But since then, Houston has gone 20-3, with its only losses to the Spurs, Grizzlies and Jazz. Currently, Houston is riding a 7-game win streak, and it will have the added benefit of having Saturday off (while the Raptors had to play an overtime game at Chicago). And even though Toronto was able to defeat the Rockets earlier this season, it's still only won just that one game out of the seven games it has played vs. the other five best teams in the league (Warriors, Spurs, Cavaliers, Rockets and a healthy Clippers squad). The problem for the Raptors is their defense, as they've given up an average of 119.1 ppg in their games against the league's Elite teams. Take Houston. |
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01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 82 h 53 m | Show |
At 4:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over New York. Interestingly, these two teams have met seven times since 2008. In the five regular season meetings, the home team covered all five, but in the two Playoff games, it was the road team (and both times, the New York Giants) that got the cash. Still, I’m going to back the homestanding Packers in this game. The Giants are in a horrid situation, as they will be playing their third straight road game, after having to play Philly and Washington away from home in the final two weeks of the regular season. Unfortunately for New York, teams that ended their regular season with back-to-back road games have been awful on the road in their initial playoff game. Since 1984, they’ve gone 3-14 straight-up, and have covered just four of those 17 games. That’s one reason I’m going to fade New York. Another is that it upset Washington, as a 9.5-point underdog. And teams off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog in their final regular season game have covered just one of eight Playoff games over the past 30 years. Finally, Green Bay is 87-57-4 in Aaron Rodgers’ career starts, including 26-8-1 ATS when priced between -3.5 and -6.5 points. And while it’s easy to focus on the fact that the Eli Manning and the Giants upset the Packers in the Playoffs in 2012, Green Bay has still gone 8-4- ATS in the Playoffs with Rodgers, including 7-1-1, 88% ATS vs. a foe off a pointspread win. Take Green Bay. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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01-08-17 | Rutgers +9.5 v. Iowa | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Iowa. Rutgers has dropped its last four games -- both straight-up and ATS -- and this losing streak has set up Rutgers in a terrific 63-27 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 4 SU/ATS losses. Even worse for the Hawkeyes: they're 0-10-1 ATS their last 11 as a favorite of less than 20 points. Take Rutgers. Big 10 Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 78 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins. Earlier this year, Miami upset Pittsburgh, 30-15, as a 7-point underdog. We had a huge play on Miami in that game, so the result didn't surprise us. But we'll lay the points with Pittsburgh here, in this revenge spot. The Dolphins, of course, are down to their 2nd string QB after Ryan Tannehill sustained ACL and MCL sprains last month vs. Arizona. Miami's offense wasn't very good to begin with (it only scores 22.7 ppg). Certainly, that's problematic. But even more so because Miami's defense is below average, and gives up 23.7 ppg. So, it won't be able to keep this game within reach should Miami's offense falter. For technical support, consider that, since 1980, NFL favorites of -8 or more points, playing with revenge, have gone 15-0 ATS if their opponent's offensive scoring average was less than 23.7 ppg. Also, Pittsburgh has cashed its last 5 Playoff games when playing with revenge, while Miami has gone 0-9 SU/ATS in the Playoffs as a dog of more than 2 points vs. .600 (or better) foes. Take the Steelers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-17 | Nevada v. New Mexico -1 | Top | 105-104 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
At 11:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos minus the points over Nevada. These two teams met in the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals last March, and the Lobos were upset, 64-62, as a 4-point favorite. I look for New Mexico to avenge that defeat, as it falls into an 82-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with revenge from a Tourney loss the previous season. Also, the Wolf Pack have cashed just 18 of 52 on the road off a SU/ATS win, if they're playing a team off a loss (including 0-for-3 vs. foes with revenge from a Tourney defeat). Take New Mexico. Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-17 | Colorado +12.5 v. Arizona | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes + the points over Arizona. Arizona has won eight straight games to move to 14-2 on the season, but this will be a much closer game than most would anticipate. The Wildcats fall into a negative 227-360 ATS System of mine based on their recent play, while Colorado falls into several of its best team trends after losing its two previous games. The Buffaloes are 39-25 ATS in conference play off back to back SU/ATS losses. And they're 17-5-1 ATS off an upset defeat (including 7-0-1 ATS since Jan. 18, 2014). Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-17 | Lions +9.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 6-26 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Seattle. Detroit has failed to cover its last three games. But NFL teams off 3 ATS losses to end the regular season have cashed 65.5% in the Playoffs the past 37 years! With the pointspread up significantly from the opener, we'll grab the points with Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-17 | Texas Tech v. Kansas -10 | Top | 68-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders upset West Virginia, 77-76, earlier this week, as a 2-point home underdog. But off that win, the Red Raiders fall into a negative 77-161 ATS system of mine. Additionally, Texas Tech is a dreadful 21-43 ATS as underdogs of +9 or more points in the regular season vs. opponents off a SU win, including 0-16 ATS if the Red Raiders' ATS win percentage was greater than .550. Take Kansas. Big 12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-17 | Charlotte +11.5 v. Marshall | Top | 93-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers + the points over Marshall. Charlotte falls into a 307-178 ATS system of mine. Also, Marshall comes into this game on a 3-game win streak after defeating Old Dominion, 90-86, on Thursday. But the Thundering Herd are a dreadful 17-36 ATS off 3+ wins since 2000, including 0-5 ATS as as double-digit favorite. Take Charlotte + the points. |
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01-07-17 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +2.5 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans over Fresno State. The Bulldogs are 10-5, and come into this game off back to back wins. Meanwhile, the Spartans also have a winning record, at 7-6, but are off back to back losses. But we'll take the home dog this afternoon, as Fresno falls into negative 130-197 and 55-100 ATS systems of mine based on its recent play. Also, the Bulldogs have covered just 51 of their last 81 games off a conference win. Finally, winning Mountain West teams off back to back losses have cashed 67.2% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins since 2001. Take San Jose State. Mountain West Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-17 | South Florida +21.5 v. SMU | Top | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on South Florida + the points over SMU. The Bulls are a huge underdog tonight, and that bodes well for them, as they're 45-25 ATS away from home in the regular season when catching double-digits. And they're also 12-1-1 ATS off back to back double-digit losses. Take the Bulls. |
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01-07-17 | UTEP +1 v. Southern Miss | Top | 65-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners over Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles snapped their nine-game losing streak on Thursday with a 77-59 win vs. Texas San Antonio. The Miners, meanwhile, still have their losing streak intact, as it reached 11 games on Thursday when they lost by 20 at Louisiana Tech. But we'll take UTEP on Saturday, as it falls into a super 72.2% ATS system of mine, which plays on .175 (or worse) teams on the road (at Game 15 forward) that are not getting 5+ points. Take the Miners. |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 46 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Oakland Raiders. The Texans were 9-7 on the season, and outscored by 49 points over the course of the season (-3.06 ppg), yet are the decided favorite against the 12-4 Raiders, who outscored their foes by 31 points this season (+1.94 ppg). Obviously, it's because of Oakland's quarterback situation. But the Texans shouldn't have to apologize for not having to face Derek Carr. After all, last season, the Texans had to go into the Playoffs with Bobby Hoyer as their starting QB. And he doomed Houston by throwing four interceptions. And this season, they've been without J.J. Watt, their best player, since Week 3, when he suffered a herniated disk in his back. So, even though the Texans have a relative scoring margin of -5.0 ppg compared to Oakland, we'll lay the points on Saturday. And that's because teams favored by 3 or more points, off a loss in their last regular season game, have gone 8-0, 100% ATS in the Playoffs since 1980 if they owned a relative scoring margin of -1.38 ppg (or worse) to their foe. Additionally, the Texans lost, 27-20, at home to Oakland in November. But Houston falls into a 34-15 ATS revenge system of mine. Finally, Houston's performed very well in the role of a favorite, as it's cashed 14 of its last 19. Lay the points. NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-17 | Wild v. Kings -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Kings over the Minnesota Wild. The Wild went on a franchise record 12-game winning streak before a showdown with the equally streaking Blue Jackets on New Year's Eve in which the Jackets got the better of them. The reset meant that Minnesota had to start over, but the Wild almost lost its first start back on Thursday night, falling behind the Sharks 4-2 in the third before rallying with three unanswered goals. That's a sign that things might not be back on track as in the last nine games of the winning streak, the Wild only had one game that was decided by a single goal. More important is the decline in play over their last three of goalie Devan Dubnyk. Dubnyk, who looked like a sure Vezina Trophy finalist early on has now allowed four goals in each of his last three games. The Kings, meanwhile, lost badly at home to Detroit as huge favorites in their last one. But they went with Jeff Zatkoff in goal instead of Peter Budaj who has gotten the lion's share of the work since Jonathan Quick went down with an injury (Zatkoff also was in goal in the Kings' 6-3 loss at Minnesota earlier this season). The reliable Budaj should be back between the pipes this afternoon as L.A. tries to redeem itself. The Kings are 5-0 in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record and the home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings. L.A. is also 12-6 when playing with revenge from a loss in which it gave up 5+ goals. Take the Kings. NHL Game of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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01-07-17 | Creighton v. Providence +4.5 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Providence Friars + the points over Creighton. Providence has won 13 straight home games, and 55 of its last 66, but finds itself installed as a home dog vs. Creighton. We'll grab the points with the Friars, as they fall into a 216-139 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with strong home courts against .900 (or better) teams off a win. Providence is also a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS at home vs. Creighton since the Blue Jays joined the Big East Conference. Take the Friars. |
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01-06-17 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -13.5 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Memphis. The Warriors are 31-5 on the season, and they're far superior to any other team in the league right now. So, it's somewhat difficult for them to bring their best game each night, since they will win most games in their sleep. That, more than anything else, is the reason why the Warriors have been under .500 this year against the spread. So, one of the keys, if you're going to bet on Golden State in the regular season, is to find games that you know it will give its best effort. Tonight will surely be one of those games, as Memphis handed the Warriors one of its five losses earlier this season when it won by 21, 110-89, on Beale Street. We'll take the Warriors in this re-match, as we note that Golden State is 11-1 ATS when playing with revenge in the regular season vs. a .376 (or better) foe (with its only ATS defeat by a half-point). Take Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-06-17 | Maple Leafs -110 v. Devils | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the New Jersey Devils. The Maple Leafs may have lost their last game on Tuesday night, but in some ways, it was a moral victory for a team that clearly is on the rise in this league. The Leafs fell to the Caps in overtime by a crazy 6-5 margin, but they arguably outplayed a very good team for most of the game, leading 4-2 after two periods and chasing one of the best goalies - Braden Holtby - after the first. The Caps staged a furious comeback in the third period before winning it OT, but the young guns on this Toronto club made a pretty bold statement on the road. With a few additional pieces, this Leafs team could be a powerhouse in the not-too-distant future. Prior to the bad beat in DC, the Leafs were on a roll, winning five straight, and they'll get some class relief tonight in New Jersey against a Devils team that's just 16-23 on the season. The Devils are all of a sudden very thin on the blue line as #1 defenseman Andy Greene left the last game with an eye injury and likely won't be available. He will join veteran D John Moore who has been place on I-R with a concussion. The Devils are 1-7 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Take Toronto. NHL Road Warrior. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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01-06-17 | 76ers v. Celtics -12 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia. The 76ers come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins (against Denver and Minnesota). But faithful followers know I love to go against bad teams off wins. And that's especially the case when they're off back to back wins. And Philly falls into a negative 87-173 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off back to back upset wins. Boston's also 9-2 ATS off back to back wins when matched up against an opponent off two upset wins. Take the Celtics. |
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01-06-17 | Cavs -12.5 v. Nets | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Brooklyn. Both teams are banged up right now. Cleveland could once again be without PG Kyrie Irving, while Nets guard Jeremy Lin remains sidelined, as well. But even without Irving in the fold, the talent gap between these clubs is large. Indeed, they met a couple of weeks ago in Cleveland, and the Cavs opened up a 46-point lead in that game before winning by a mere 20. Cleveland should be motivated, as it comes in off a loss to Chicago. And rested teams have cashed 79% since 1990 if they're off a loss, and playing an unrested foe with a win percentage at least 47 percentage points worse (at Game 16 forward). Take Cleveland. |
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01-05-17 | Wild v. Sharks -130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over Minnesota. The Wild's 12-game win streak ended with a 4-2 home loss to the (even hotter) Columbus Blue Jackets. And that was the 2nd straight game (and third in the last four) that the Wild surrendered 4 goals. The Wild had gone nine straight games without allowing even three goals, so the fact that its defense has given up 4 goals in three of four games must be cause for concern. And, for our purposes, it's worth noting that Minnesota is 4-11 off back to back games in which it allowed 4+ goals. San Jose comes into tonight's game off back-to-back losses to their rival, the LA Kings (after having won eight of their previous nine games to that point). But I look for San Jose to bounce back at home, and hand Minnesota its second straight defeat, as Minny is 24-35 off a loss, while the Sharks are 27-15 off back to back losses. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-17 | Pacific +3 v. San Diego | Top | 56-53 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Pacific Tigers + the points over San Diego. The Toreros are 8-2 ATS this season, but have only been an underdog in one of their previous 10 lined games. And that was when they were favored by just one points vs. Fullerton St. So this will be the most points San Diego has laid this season, and the most it has laid since November 27, 2015 (35 games ago). Needless to say, the Toreros have been awful as a favorite, and especially in league play, where they've gone 3-15 ATS their last 18, including 0-11 ATS if their season pointspread win percentage was greater than .460. Take the points with Pacific. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-17 | SE Missouri State +13 v. Tennessee State | Top | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks + the points over Tennessee State. SEMO has gotten off to a slow 6-10 start, but just played its best game of the season, when it won 81-48, as a 3-point home underdog vs. Eastern Kentucky. And that big win has set SEMO up in a 'momentum' system of mine which is 124-44 ATS since 1990. That angle plays on certain double-digit underdogs off double-digit wins. Also, SEMO plays this game with revenge from a 6-point loss to the Tigers last season. And the Redhawks are 45-22 ATS when getting more than 8 points, and playing with revenge. Take the points with Southeast Missouri St. |
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01-05-17 | Southern Utah v. Northern Colorado -10.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears minus the points over Southern Utah. The Bears are on a roll. Last week, they went into Sacramento State and Portland State, and pulled off back to back upset wins over the Hornets and Vikings. Now, they're back home to take on the Thunderbirds. And Northern Colorado falls into a 34-10 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back upset wins. Overall, the Bears have cashed four straight games (and six of seven), and they should find it easy to score against a Thunderbird squad which is surrendering 83.6 ppg (against foes that average 73.4). Northern Colorado has been dominant at home this season, as it's not lost a game yet (either SU or ATS), and it's outscoring foes by over 20 ppg. The Bears have also dominated the Thunderbirds with six straight wins in the series, and four ATS wins of the last five. Lay it. NCAA Below the Radar Rout. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-17 | Sabres v. Blackhawks -190 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Blackhawks over the Buffalo Sabres. We're so used to seeing the Blackhawks atop the Central Division of the NHL and so far this season has been no different. But the 'Hawks come into this game having lost five of their last six and in danger of being overtaken by the very good - and somewhat surprising - Minnesota Wild. Chicago can't really blame its recent troubles on health issues either, as with the exception of forwards Marcus Kruger and Marian Hossa, the team is pretty much 100%. And Hossa is practicing now and very close to a return (there's a chance he'll be able to play tonight). If the Blackhawks wanted a recipe for getting out of their current slump, they likely couldn't have picked a better opponent than the Sabres. Buffalo comes in having shocked the Rangers in New York in its last contest on Tuesday night. And unlike the 'Hawks, this team is pretty banged up right now so it's hard to imagine them pulling off two-in-row on the road in two of the most difficult venues to visit in the NHL. United Center may be a tough place for most NHL teams, but for the Sabres it's downright impossible as they are 0-6 in the last six trips here going back to 2009. Chicago is also 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. Take the 'Hawks. |
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01-05-17 | UTEP +16 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 44-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs won their conference opener on Sunday with a 79-55 victory at Southern Miss. Unfortunately for La Tech, it's 0-7 ATS following a conference win away from home. Texas El Paso, meanwhile, is mired in a 10-game losing streak, so it's been installed as a double-digit underdog tonight. This will be the most points the Miners have received this year, and we'll happily take them, as UTEP is 41-20 ATS since 1990 as an underdog of +8 or more points when playing away from home against an opponent off a win. Finally, UTEP falls into one of my favorites systems, which is 94-35 ATS since 1990, which plays on certain teams off a loss vs. a foe off a win. Take the Miners + the points. C-USA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-17 | Youngstown State +12.5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 70-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Youngstown State Penguins + the points over Northern Kentucky, as YSU falls into a 307-177 ATS system of mine. Both Youngstown and Northern Kentucky dropped their games over the weekend, as the Penguins fell by 13, at home, to Green Bay, while the Norse lost at Oakland, 76-65. Tonight, the Norse have been installed as a big favorite, but they're a poor 25% ATS the past 3 seasons when favored off a loss, while the Penguins are a solid 31-18 ATS when getting more than 10 points from a conference foe. Take Youngstown. |
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01-05-17 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals -127 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Caps come into this game on a 3-game win streak. Of course, that pales in comparison to Columbus' current 16-game streak, but only four teams in the league have a better record than the Caps. These two teams met here at the Verizon Center back on November 20. And the Blue Jackets scored two goals in the 3rd period to overtake the Caps, 3-2. That loss marked the first time in 115 games that the Capitals lost in regulation after taking a lead into the 3rd period. I look for the Caps to avenge that defeat as they're 39-18 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and 47-22 at home when the over/under line was 5 goals or less. Take Washington. |
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01-04-17 | Long Beach State +5 v. UC-Irvine | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Long Beach State 49ers + the points over Cal Irvine, as The Beach falls into a 360-225 ATS system of mine. The 49ers and Anteaters open up Big West Conference play tonight, and this is a re-match of a Tourney game won by the 49ers, 77-72, last March. It's true that Long Beach State lost by 26 at Eastern Michigan last Thursday, but point guard Justin Bibbins missed that game with a sprained ankle. I expect him to return tonight, as the Long Beach St. medical staff indicated he was healing quickly. And Long Beach State is a super 59-37 ATS away from home off a double-digit loss. Also, home favorites (like Cal Irvine) have only covered 30 of 78 Big West Conference openers in the past 26 seasons. Take the points with Long Beach State. Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-04-17 | Oregon v. Washington +8.5 | Top | 83-61 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over Oregon. This is a tough spot for the Ducks, who just defeated two previously undefeated teams (UCLA and USC) in back to back games at home. Now, however, the Ducks must take to the road to face the Washington Huskies. Of course, it's not a common event to win back to back games against opponents with 10-0 (or better) records. The last time it occurred was in 2004, when Kentucky handed 12-0 Vanderbilt and 13-0 Mississippi State losses. Then, after those two wins, Kentucky played an 8-5 Georgia team, and was upset 65-57, as a 17-point favorite! Don't be surprised if the Ducks lose outright tonight, as they fall into a negative 39% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off wins over previously unbeaten foes. And Oregon's covered just one of the previous seven games in this series. Also, the Huskies are a super 13-1 ATS as home dogs priced from +2.5 to +15 points vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take the points with Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-04-17 | Louisville v. Notre Dame +1.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Louisville. Both of these teams come into this game with identical 12-2 records, and we'll grab the points with the Irish, as teams that were at least 10 games over .500 have covered 61% as home underdogs over the past 27 years, if their opponent was off an ATS win. Take the Irish. |
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01-04-17 | Canadiens v. Stars -118 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Montreal Canadiens. Kari Lehtonen will be back in goal tonight, after getting Dallas' last game (and the last five days) off. The Stars did lose their last game, 3-1, with Antti Niemi in net, which snapped Dallas' 3-game win streak (all Lehtonen starts). So, Lehtonen has not only won his last three starts, but he's also stopped 95 of the last 100 shots (.950 SV%) that he has faced. He'll face an unrested Montreal team off an overtime win last night in Nashville. Unfortunately, Montreal's 53-81 off an overtime win. And Dallas is 11-1 off a home loss by 2+ goals. Take the Stars. NHL Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-04-17 | Villanova v. Butler +2 | Top | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs over the Villanova Wildcats. Villanova won the title last season, and is off to a 14-0 start this year. But they should taste defeat at Hinkle Fieldhouse tonight. Butler is 12-2 SU (with its two losses coming by a combined 5 points) and 8-4 ATS. And teams on long win streaks -- like Villanova -- that have won 14+ games in a row have been dreadful in the regular season when not favored by 3+ points, and matched up against foes that didn't have a losing ATS record. Since 1990, our "streaking" teams have cashed just 23 of 67 games. Take Butler. |
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01-03-17 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3 | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over West Virginia. Texas Tech is 11-2 on the season, but has been installed as a home dog vs. WVU, which is 12-1. We'll take the points with the Red Raiders, who fall into a 68.9% ATS system of mine which plays on "power" home underdogs with win percentages of .810 or better. Also, WVU falls into a negative 50-84 ATS system of mine that fades .895 (or better) road favorites off a win by more than 17 points. Even worse for the Mountaineers: they're a poor 28-42 ATS on the road off a conference win if they're playing a winning opponent. Take the Red Raiders. Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-03-17 | Kansas State v. Kansas -12.5 | Top | 88-90 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over the Kansas State Wildcats. Both of these clubs enter tonight's game with 12-1 records. But their records have diverged when playing each other over the past 18 seasons. Unlike many rivalries, this has been a completely one-sided affair, with Kansas holding the upper hand. Dating back to 1999, the Jayhawks are 38-5 straight-up vs. K-State, and 31-11-1 ATS, including a perfect 11-0 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in a road game their previous time out. Meanwhile, Kansas State comes into the game off a win against Texas. But it's 0-7 ATS its last seven off a conference win. Take Kansas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-03-17 | Pacers v. Pistons -4.5 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over the Indiana Pacers. Detroit lost to the Pacers less than three weeks ago, 105-90, so it plays this game with revenge. And the Pistons fall into 88-44, 148-100 and 83-36 ATS revenge systems of mine. They're also 31-17 ATS as a home favorite, and 16-4 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, the Pacers have the worst road record in the league relative to their home record, as they've gone 13-5 (.722) at home compared to 4-13 (.235) on the road. Indiana's also dropped six of its last seven road games (both SU and ATS). This will be a blowout. Lay the points. NBA PAYBACK PAYDAY. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-03-17 | Devils v. Hurricanes -163 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -163 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the New Jersey Devils. Carolina has been virtually unbeatable at home, of late, as it is on an 11-game streak of securing at least a point (10-0-1), with its lone loss coming outside of regulation vs. the Capitals on December 16. The 'Canes also play with revenge from two losses suffered earlier this year to the Devils. And Carolina's 6-2 when playing with double revenge. Meanwhile, the Devils had to play last night (and won 3-0 vs. Boston). But this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. That doesn't bode well, as New Jersey's a poor 11-22 when playing its 3rd game in four nights (minus 12 games on the moneyline), and 2-8 off a home win by 3+ goals. Take Carolina. NHL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-02-17 | Auburn +3 v. Oklahoma | Top | 19-35 | Loss | -105 | 162 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Monday, January 2nd, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers over Oklahoma, as Auburn falls into several of my best Bowl systems, with records of 85-34, 71-31, 44-15 and 60-35 ATS. There are several reasons why I love Auburn in this game, but perhaps the most important is Auburn's stellar defense. It's allowed just 15.6 ppg against opponents that average 28.1 ppg! In contrast, Oklahoma has allowed 29.7 ppg (against opponents that average 32.9 ppg). Thus, Auburn's defense has held its foes to 55.5% of their point production while Oklahoma's stop unit has only held its foes to 90.2% of their offensive production. That's a huge difference. Indeed, College Bowl teams have cashed 77% over the past 20 seasons if their defense surrendered, on average, at least 10 less points than their foe, and they weren't favored by 6+ points in the game (including a perfect 12-0-1 ATS the last 12). Even worse for the Sooners: Big 12 Conference teams have covered just 6 of their last 29 Bowl games vs. SEC Conference foes, including 0-8 ATS since 2007 if the Big 12 Conference team's defense gave up 25+ ppg! Take Auburn. NCAA Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-02-17 | Troy State v. South Alabama -1.5 | Top | 75-76 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars over Troy State. This will be the Sun Belt Conference opener for both squads. Troy State defeated Chicago State, 83-65, as a 10.5-point favorite in its last game, while South Alabama was roasted, 92-58, as a 13-point underdog at Ole Miss. That defeat was the Jaguars' fourth in five games, and it also extended the Jaguars' ATS losing streak to 5 straight games. But I look for the Jaguars to bounce back off that 34-point loss, as NCAA teams have covered 66.1% of the time over the past 27 seasons in their conference openers if they lost their previous game by more than 20 points, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win. Additionally, the Jaguars fall into 194-121 and 101-44 ATS systems of mine based on their recent play. Lay the points with South Alabama. NCAA Hoops High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-02-17 | Iowa v. Florida -3 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Big 10 was thought by many to be the best conference in College Football this season, but its member schools have not played well in the post-season. They've gone 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS, with its two best teams -- Michigan and Ohio State -- both suffering upset losses. The Big 10 has also underperformed vs. the SEC in Bowl games, and especially in this price range. Since 1989, the Big 10 has gone 9-18 SU/ATS when priced from PK to +4 in the Bowls vs. the SEC. It's true that the Iowa Hawkeyes are on a 3-game win streak, while the Gators have dropped their last two (including a 54-16 loss to #1 Alabama in the SEC Title Game). And that may lead many bettors to plunk down money on Iowa at the betting window. But in the post-season, teams off 3+ wins have actually cashed just 18 of 49 games vs. opponents off back to back losses (and just one of eight (12%) against foes with a great defense which gives up less than 18 ppg)! And Florida's also an awesome 63.3% over the past 21 seasons vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take Florida. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-17 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Green Bay Packers. For the Detroit Lions franchise, which hasn't won a division title since 1993, this is the biggest regular season game in more than a generation. Unless the Redskins lose to the Giants earlier in the day, the loser of this game will miss the Playoffs, while the winner will claim the division crown. Certainly, the Packers are playing better football. They've won five straight, including road wins at Chicago and Philadelphia. But the Eagles are 6-9, while Chicago is 3-12. And the Packers' only other road win this season came against the 3-12 Jaguars. Detroit, though, has a winning record, at 9-6. And the Packers have lost all four road games this season vs. opponents with a .466 (or better) record (Vikings, Falcons, Titans, Redskins). And Green Bay's lost those four games by an average of 11 ppg. It's true that Detroit lost its last two games -- 17-6 at New York, and 42-21 at Dallas. But those two games were on the road. At home, in Ford Field, the Lions have been dominant, and come into this contest on a 6-game home win streak (4-1-1 ATS). And winning home teams, off back to back road losses, have covered 64 of 98 dating back to 1981. Also, Detroit falls into a 31-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off losses, in which they gave up 40+ points. Before surrendering 42 to Dallas, the Lions' defense had not given up 21+ points in eight consecutive games. It should rise to the occasion again, here, at home, in this critical game. Take Detroit + the points. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-17 | Cardinals v. Rams +6 | Top | 44-6 | Loss | -105 | 83 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Arizona. We played on the Cardinals as an 8-point underdog last week, and they rewarded us with an outright win at Seattle. But off that division upset, I look for a letdown on Sunday at Los Angeles. And that's because .401 (or better) teams off an upset win the previous week as a 6-point (or greater) underdog generally do poorly against the spread. And especially if they're favored against an opponent off a loss, as they're 86-43 ATS since 1980. Even worse for the Cardinals: teams favored on the road in their final game of the regular season, off an upset win, are 0-10 ATS since 1990 vs. an opponent off an ATS loss. Finally, the Rams fall into a 71-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses. Take Los Angeles. NFC West Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-17 | UTEP +2.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 55-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the UTEP Miners + the points over Texas San Antonio. It's true that UTEP has lost nine straight games headed into this afternoon's contest with the Roadrunners. And Texas San Antonio has been installed as a very short favorite. Thus, the knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the small number with UTSA. But consider that teams on losing streaks of 9+ games have covered 61% on the road since 1990, if they weren't getting more than 5 points (and 78% if they also weren't on a pointspread win streak). The Roadrunners, meanwhile, have won the first two games of their 3-game home stand, but they're a woeful 1-11 ATS off a home win since February 2014. Take Texas El Paso. Below the Radar Blowout. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 31 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Dallas. We played on Dallas last Monday in its 42-21 win vs. Detroit. But we'll switch gears, and go against the Cowboys in this, their final road game of the season. Dallas has a 13-2 record, so this game is meaningless with respect to Playoff positioning. The Cowboys have earned the #1 seed, and will enjoy home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. But since 1990, NFL teams with a win percentage of .750 or better, have been horrid on the road in their final regular season game. They've gone 9-21 straight-up and 7-22-1 ATS, including 1-7 ATS if our road team's W/L percentage was more than 40 percentage points greater than its opponent's W/L percentage. Moreover, the Cowboys fall into a negative 15-52 ATS system of mine based on their high-scoring win last week. Finally, road underdogs have covered just 21% over the past 36 seasons in their final game of the season, if they were working off a short week, due to playing on the previous Monday night. Take Philly. NFC East Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at quarterback for New York, and he had his best game of the season back in Week 2 vs. the Bills, when he threw for 374 yards in a 37-31 victory. Meanwhile, E.J. Manuel will start under center for Buffalo, rather than Tyrod Taylor, as the Bills couldn’t risk a serious injury to Taylor, which would trigger a guaranteed 27.5 million dollar payment for next season. Last week, we had a big play on New England over the Jets, and were rewarded with a 41-3 blowout win. But we’ll jump on the Jets this week, as home underdogs (or PK) off a loss by 23 or more points have gone 183-114 ATS since 1980 if they’re playing an opponent with a win percentage better than .400, including 57-23 ATS if that opponent lost its game the previous week. Finally, the underdog in this rivalry has gone 42-25 ATS, including 31-12 ATS if it had a worse won/loss record. Take New York. NFL Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson +3 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Ohio State. At this stage of the season, it's not surprising when both teams have solid defenses. And that's the case this evening. Ohio State gives up just 14.2 ppg, while Clemson gives up a few more, but still a very respectable 18.4 ppg. In Bowl games, it's dangerous to lay points in games between two very good defensive teams, as favorites -- not playing on their home field -- have covered just 31% of the time over the past 19 seasons in games between teams that each give up less than 18.5 ppg. Additionally, Clemson's a perfect 9-0 ATS its last nine games away from home when playing an opponent which gives up less than 17.5 ppg. Take the Tigers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -2.5 | Top | 116-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks, as Chicago falls into an 83-34 ATS revenge system of mine (the same system which applied to our play on Atlanta last night). These two teams met 15 days ago, and the Bucks handed the Bulls their worst defeat of the season -- a 95-69 beatdown, in which the Bulls shot a season-low 30.4% from the floor. And that was the 2nd defeat handed Chicago by Milwaukee in two nights, as the Bucks also won by double-digits at the Bradley Center the previous night. But you know what they say about 'paybacks,' and I fully expect the Bulls to come out tonight with great motivation to get the win, as they're 27-9 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if they also lost the meeting before that in the season. Take Chicago. NBA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-16 | NC State v. Miami (Fla) -5.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over NC State. This is a great match-up, as both teams come into the game on six-game win streaks. For the season, Miami is 10-2, while the Wolfpack is a half-game better, at 11-2. In Vegas, though, Miami is trending in the opposite direction, as it's lost its last seven games against the spread. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the ice cold Hurricanes, especially since NC State has covered its last four games. But the opposite generally holds true. Indeed, since 1990, college teams on a 7-game (or worse) ATS losing streak have covered a solid 60% of the time vs. foes on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak (and 91% when not installed as an underdog). Take Miami. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-16 | Nebraska-Omaha +7.5 v. North Dakota State | Top | 70-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Omaha Mavericks + the points over North Dakota State. The Mavericks had their best win of the season -- and one of their best in school history -- back on December 3, when they went into Carver-Hawkeye Arena and upset Iowa, 98-89, as an 11-point underdog. Since then, though, they've failed to cover the spread, and Thursday's 17-point loss at South Dakota was their fifth straight ATS defeat. I look for the Mavericks to break back into the ATS win column on this Saturday, as their losing streak has triggered a 95-35 ATS system of mine. And it's not like North Dakota State has been doing any better this season against the spread (even though they did cover their most recent game). The Bison have covered just two of their nine games, themselves. And they're also 0-9 ATS in the regular season the past two years off a pointspread win. Finally, Nebraska-Omaha is a sensational 86% ATS over the past five seasons as an underdog off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take the Mavericks + the points. NCAA Road Warrior. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-16 | Marist v. Iona -13 | Top | 80-93 | Push | 0 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over the Marist Red Foxes. Iona is in a super situation on Saturday, as it suffered upset losses in its two previous games. And those two defeats have triggered several of my favorite systems, with records of 54-12, 126-70 and 75-32 ATS. Meanwhile, Marist is on a 5-game losing streak, itself, and has covered just two of its six games this season. Even worse: it's covered just 33% on the road over the past 15 seasons vs. a foe off an upset loss, including just 10% vs. foes with a W/L percentage of .616 or worse. Finally, Iona is 76.4% ATS over the past 15 seasons off an upset loss when matched up against an opponent off back to back losses, including a perfect 8-0 ATS if the Gaels W/L percentage was .421 (or better). Take Iona. NCAA Basketball Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-16 | Capitals -175 v. Devils | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the New Jersey Devils. These two teams met on Thursday, and the Devils won in Washington, 2-1, in overtime. We'll take the Caps in the re-match, as Washington is 20-6 off an overtime defeat, and 20-7 on the road when playing with revenge. Meanwhile, the Devils are a poor 25-44 (-16 games on the moneyline) against division rivals. Keith Kinkaid will once again get the start for the Devils. And, although he stifled Washington on Thursday, he had a 1-2 record, .904 saves pct., and a 3.28 GAA in his three other December starts. The Caps will get to him tonight. Take Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-16 | Kentucky +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 18-33 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
At 11 am, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Georgia Tech. The Wildcats opened the season with three straight pointspread defeats. But they got into the win column in Vegas with a 17-10 victory, as a 2-point favorite, vs. South Carolina in Week 4. And that started a terrific run through the end of the season which saw them go 7-1 ATS vs. Division 1 schools, with their only pointspread defeat by a mere half-point vs. Georgia. I definitely won't step in front of Kentucky, as an underdog, here. And especially since they stunned Louisville as a 28.5-point underdog in their last game. For technical support, consider that teams that won outright as underdogs of more than 14 points in their final regular season game have cashed 73.3% in the Bowls over the past 19 seasons (including Southern Miss, two weeks ago, in this season's New Orleans Bowl). Take Kentucky. |
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12-31-16 | LSU v. Louisville +3 | Top | 29-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 11 am, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over LSU. It's true that Lamar Jackson & Co. stumbled badly down the stretch. Louisville lost its last two games -- 36-10 at Houston, and 41-38, at home, vs. rival Kentucky. We had one of our biggest plays of the season on Houston +17.5 against Louisville, so that game didn't really surprise me. But even though we didn't play the game, the Cardinals' loss to Kentucky, as a 28.5-favorite, certainly did raise my eyebrows. However, if there's one thing I've learned about College Bowl games, it is that teams that stumble down the stretch often bounce back in the Bowls. Indeed, Bowl underdogs off back to back upset losses have covered 64.7% over the past 37 years. Take Louisville. Even better, underdogs of +3 or more points, off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 21+ points, have covered 84.6% in Bowl games over the past 13 seasons vs. foes off a SU/ATS win (including 2-0 already this season with North Texas and South Carolina getting the $$$). Take Louisville. |
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12-30-16 | Arizona v. California -2.5 | Top | 67-62 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
At 11 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears minus the points over Arizona, as California falls into a 76-23 ATS System of mine. That angle fades certain .827 (or better) teams (like Arizona) on the road off a double-digit win, if they're facing an opponent with a strong home court which lost its previous game. And the Bears did lose a rare game at home their last time out, as they fell, 56-52, to Virginia nine days ago. But off that tough loss, I expect California to bounce back, as it had won 27 home games in a row before that setback. California is 9-1 ATS at home its last 10 vs. Pac-12 foes, while Arizona is 6-10 ATS on the road in conference play. Take Cal minus the points. NCAA Roadkill Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-30-16 | Florida State v. Michigan -7 | Top | 33-32 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Florida State. (Analysis to follow.) |
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12-30-16 | Pistons v. Hawks -3 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Detroit. Earlier this month, the Hawks played two horrid, back-to-back games. On Dec. 2, they lost, 121-85 to these Pistons. And, then, the next night, they were blown out, 128-84, by Toronto. Atlanta avenged that 44-point loss to the Raptors with an upset win two weeks ago. And, now, they'll get a chance to make amends for that 36-point loss to Detroit. I will lay the points with the Hawks, as they fall into an 82-34 ATS 'revenge' system of mine. Also, Atlanta's 38-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. Take the Hawks. NBA Roadkill play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-30-16 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over Chicago. The 'Canes lost at Pittsburgh, 3-2, in their last game, even though they fired 46 shots on net. But now they are back home, where they've won 9 of their last 10 games, with the only loss coming outside of regulation. We'll take the homestanding Hurricanes on Friday, as they're 7-1 at home this season vs. winning teams, and are 4-2 at home vs. Chicago (winning by an average of 1.8 goals per game). Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-30-16 | South Alabama +14 v. Air Force | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over Air Force. (Analysis to follow.) |
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12-30-16 | Nebraska +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Tennessee. The line has reached double-digits (due to Nebraska's QB issues), but we'll still pull the trigger on the underdog Huskers, as it's tough to turn down this amount of points in a bowl game. And especially when our team has the vastly superior defense (Nebraska gives up 22.7 ppg against opponents that averaged 28.2; Tennessee 29.2 ppg against opponents that averaged 26.6). Indeed, Nebraska falls into 28-5 and 34-8 ATS systems of mine that play on certain underdogs with good defenses. Take the Cornhuskers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-30-16 | North Carolina +3 v. Stanford | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Stanford. (Analysis to follow.) |
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12-29-16 | Mavs v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks. To say that the Lakers will desperately want to win tonight's game is an understatement. After all, the Mavericks have won 11 straight in this series, including an upset win over Los Angeles last month, when the Lakers lost 109-97, as a 4-point favorite. But you know what they say about 'paybacks,' and the Lakers fall into a fantastic revenge system of mine which is 82-33 ATS since 1990. Even better: NBA revenge-minded teams are a solid 56-30 ATS this season off a loss, including 17-5 ATS if they were upset in the season's previous meeting. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-29-16 | Bruins -142 v. Sabres | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Buffalo Sabres. How do you know that the balance of power has somewhat shifted in the East? How about when the Buffalo Sabres start winning games in Detroit? They just did exactly that in their last game on Tuesday - their second win in the Motor City in their last three games there (and they hadn't won in the previous eight trips prior to that). Of course, Detroit is a shell of its former self and has actually fallen to last place in the division, so it's not clear how significant that victory was at this point. The Sabres come home tonight before heading back on the road for three more games after that, and they'll likely have a tougher time than they did against the Wings, facing a Bruins team that is 5-1 in its last six games vs. teams from its own division (the Atlantic). The Bruins have been treading water - right around .500 - most of the season, so they have to feel pretty good about their current third place standing in the Atlantic (and glad that they're not in the much tougher Metropolitan). The Sabres are pretty banged up right now, including #1 C Ryan O'Reilly who is expected to miss two-to-three weeks as the result of an appendectomy. Boston is 5-0 in the last five trips to Buffalo. Take the Bruins. NHL Road Warrior. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-16-17 | Capitals v. Penguins | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 14 m | Show |
01-15-17 | Wild v. Blackhawks -124 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 154 h 40 m | Show |
01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -4 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 154 h 39 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Oregon State +25.5 v. Oregon | Top | 43-85 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots OVER 44.5 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 134 h 25 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Maryland v. Illinois -3 | Top | 62-56 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Western Kentucky +14.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 76-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 131 h 44 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Florida State v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
01-14-17 | VCU v. Davidson +1.5 | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
01-14-17 | New Mexico +3 v. Colorado State | Top | 84-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Nebraska v. Michigan -8.5 | Top | 85-91 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 76-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
01-13-17 | Jets -147 v. Coyotes | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -147 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
01-13-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -7 | Top | 110-105 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
01-13-17 | Blue Jackets -125 v. Lightning | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
01-13-17 | Islanders v. Panthers OVER 5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
01-12-17 | UCLA v. Colorado +7 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
01-12-17 | Purdue v. Iowa +5.5 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
01-12-17 | Ducks v. Avalanche OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
01-12-17 | Quinnipiac v. Siena -8 | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
01-12-17 | Sabres v. Lightning -162 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
01-12-17 | Drexel +10.5 v. Northeastern | Top | 75-92 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
01-11-17 | Rockets v. Wolves +4 | Top | 105-119 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
01-11-17 | North Dakota State +1 v. South Dakota | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
01-11-17 | Knicks -2 v. 76ers | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
01-10-17 | Stars v. Ducks -155 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
01-10-17 | Flyers -108 v. Sabres | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
01-10-17 | Baylor v. West Virginia -5.5 | Top | 68-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
01-10-17 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +12 | Top | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
01-09-17 | Clemson +6 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 209 h 3 m | Show |
01-09-17 | Flames v. Jets -130 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
01-09-17 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Coastal Carolina -2 | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
01-09-17 | Troy State v. Georgia State -6 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Warriors -10 v. Kings | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Cavs -9 v. Suns | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Rockets -1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 129-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 82 h 53 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Rutgers +9.5 v. Iowa | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 78 h 15 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Nevada v. New Mexico -1 | Top | 105-104 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Colorado +12.5 v. Arizona | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Lions +9.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 6-26 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Texas Tech v. Kansas -10 | Top | 68-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Charlotte +11.5 v. Marshall | Top | 93-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +2.5 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
01-07-17 | South Florida +21.5 v. SMU | Top | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
01-07-17 | UTEP +1 v. Southern Miss | Top | 65-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 46 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Wild v. Kings -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Creighton v. Providence +4.5 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
01-06-17 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -13.5 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
01-06-17 | Maple Leafs -110 v. Devils | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
01-06-17 | 76ers v. Celtics -12 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
01-06-17 | Cavs -12.5 v. Nets | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
01-05-17 | Wild v. Sharks -130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
01-05-17 | Pacific +3 v. San Diego | Top | 56-53 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
01-05-17 | SE Missouri State +13 v. Tennessee State | Top | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
01-05-17 | Southern Utah v. Northern Colorado -10.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
01-05-17 | Sabres v. Blackhawks -190 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
01-05-17 | UTEP +16 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 44-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
01-05-17 | Youngstown State +12.5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 70-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
01-05-17 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals -127 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
01-04-17 | Long Beach State +5 v. UC-Irvine | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
01-04-17 | Oregon v. Washington +8.5 | Top | 83-61 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
01-04-17 | Louisville v. Notre Dame +1.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
01-04-17 | Canadiens v. Stars -118 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
01-04-17 | Villanova v. Butler +2 | Top | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
01-03-17 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3 | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
01-03-17 | Kansas State v. Kansas -12.5 | Top | 88-90 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
01-03-17 | Pacers v. Pistons -4.5 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
01-03-17 | Devils v. Hurricanes -163 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -163 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
01-02-17 | Auburn +3 v. Oklahoma | Top | 19-35 | Loss | -105 | 162 h 30 m | Show |
01-02-17 | Troy State v. South Alabama -1.5 | Top | 75-76 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
01-02-17 | Iowa v. Florida -3 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
01-01-17 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 1 m | Show |
01-01-17 | Cardinals v. Rams +6 | Top | 44-6 | Loss | -105 | 83 h 54 m | Show |
01-01-17 | UTEP +2.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 55-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 31 m | Show |
01-01-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show |
12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson +3 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
12-31-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -2.5 | Top | 116-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
12-31-16 | NC State v. Miami (Fla) -5.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
12-31-16 | Nebraska-Omaha +7.5 v. North Dakota State | Top | 70-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
12-31-16 | Marist v. Iona -13 | Top | 80-93 | Push | 0 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
12-31-16 | Capitals -175 v. Devils | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
12-31-16 | Kentucky +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 18-33 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
12-31-16 | LSU v. Louisville +3 | Top | 29-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
12-30-16 | Arizona v. California -2.5 | Top | 67-62 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
12-30-16 | Florida State v. Michigan -7 | Top | 33-32 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
12-30-16 | Pistons v. Hawks -3 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
12-30-16 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
12-30-16 | South Alabama +14 v. Air Force | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
12-30-16 | Nebraska +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
12-30-16 | North Carolina +3 v. Stanford | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
12-29-16 | Mavs v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
12-29-16 | Bruins -142 v. Sabres | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |