Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-22-17 | Nationals v. Astros -170 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -170 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Washington Nationals. The Astros have been dominant in interleague play, with a 38-16 record over their last 54. We'll back Charlie Morton this evening, as he's pitched very well since coming off the disabled list last month. He's 5-2 in his eight starts, with a 3.26 ERA. And he's limited opposing hitters to a .192 batting average. Even better: in three interleague starts, his ERA is a sparkling 0.95. And he's 10-3 in his 16 nighttime starts. Take Houston. |
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08-22-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays -195 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto. This is a rematch of a game played five days ago at Rogers Centre, won by Toronto, 5-3. Blue Jays' rookie Chris Rowley went five innings in that game, while Rays starter Chris Archer went seven. And, even though the Blue Jays won, it was Archer who pitched decidedly better. Rowley allowed nine baserunners (including five walks) in his five innings, while Archer struck out 10 Jays, and only allowed five men to reach base in his seven innings. I look for Archer to have much better fortune tonight, as the Blue Jays are 0-5 this season when priced from +175 to +250. Take Tampa Bay. |
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08-21-17 | Giants +1.5 v. Browns | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -115 | 135 h 17 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the NY Giants over the Cleveland Browns. New York was upset in Week 1, 20-12, by the Pittsburgh Steelers, as a 4-point home favorite, while Cleveland knocked off New Orleans, 20-14, as a 3-point home favorite. But I look for the Giants to bounce back on this Monday, at Cleveland, as road teams have cashed 68.3% since 1983 off a loss in their home opener by 7+ points, provided they were favored by 3+ points in that home opener. Additionally, the Giants fall into a 26-5 ATS NFL Preseason system of mine which goes against certain teams (like Cleveland) off wins, and also a 92-47 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road teams, off losses, not favored by 3+ points. Take New York. NFL Preseason Monday Night Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-21-17 | A's v. Orioles -152 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Oakland Athletics. The O's just lost a series to the A's in Oakland and now they hope to turn the tables at home. They were thinking of giving Sunday's start to LH Wade Miley, but decided to have Chris Tillman get a spot start instead and so Miley will go tonight against Oakland. That could be a good move for Miley as the A's have a .233 team batting average vs. lefties this season -- worst in the American League. The O's may not be the best team in the league right now - perhaps far from it - but they've been the most potent in the second half of the season. Since the break, the Orioles lead all AL teams with 193 runs scored. But that's not the only reason to like them at home vs. Oakland. The A's have just 20 wins on the road this season (vs. 39 losses), the lowest such total in the entire Majors. And against teams with left-handed starters, their road win percentage is even worse at 12-45 in their last 57. The Orioles are 11 games over .500 here at Camden Yards (36-25) and they are 20-8 in their last 28 home games vs. teams with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the O's. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-20-17 | Marlins v. Mets -160 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins. The Mets have won nine of Jake deGrom's last 12 starts. But two of their three losses were at the hands of very good teams (LA Dodgers, NY Yankees). This afternoon, the Mets won't be playing a top-level squad, as Miami is below .500 on the season. Andrew Conley will get the start for the Marlins, but he's struggled of late, with a 5.94 ERA over his last three outings. Miami's also a horrid 50-101 (minus 40 games on the moneyline) on the road in daytime affairs. Take New York. |
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08-20-17 | Mariners v. Rays -137 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Seattle. The Rays have dropped four in a row, and eight of their last nine, while Seattle's on a 4-game win streak. But the Rays have a distinct advantage on the mound this afternoon. Seattle's Yovani Gallardo's ERA over his last three starts is an ugly 9.45, while his ERA in all starts is 6.41. The Rays have won each of Blake Snell's last three starts (by a combined score of 15-8), and Snell's ERA in his four daytime starts this season is 1.80. Take Tampa Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-20-17 | Dodgers v. Tigers +141 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 141 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the LA Dodgers. It's true that the Dodgers are easily the best team in baseball. But we'll fade them this afternoon in Detroit, as Justin Verlander has excelled in his interleague starts in his career, including a 19-3 record for the Tigers in his home interleague starts. Verlander's also 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA at home this season, while Kenta Maeda has a 4.44 ERA in his 10 road starts. Take Detroit. |
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08-19-17 | Bears +3 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 89 h 8 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Arizona. The Bears were upset, 24-17, by Denver at home last week, while Arizona defeated Oakland, 20-10. But even though Chicago lost, it did outgain the Broncos, but were thwarted by two turnovers (while Denver had none). We'll grab the points with Chicago, as road underdogs have covered 58% in the Preseason off a SU/ATS loss vs. foes off a SU/ATS win over the past 34 years. Take the Bears. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-17 | Diamondbacks -141 v. Twins | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -141 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Minnesota Twins. With Clayton Kershaw still on the shelf for a prolonged period of time and Max Scherzer suffering from a neck injury, D-Backs ace RH Zack Greinke has snuck his way into the NL Cy Young picture. Unlike Kershaw and Scherzer, Greinke doesn't lead the lead in any significant pitching category, but he is 14-5 with a 3.01 ERA. And with a few starts like the last one, he just might start looking like the best pitcher in the league. He's actually had quite a few starts in Minneapolis, the last one being in 2014 when he didn't allow an ER over six strong innings with six strikeouts and one walk -- a pretty typical Greinke outing. His team will have the added benefit of a DH in this series and that's a plus for the Diamondbacks who have a pretty potent lineup even in NL games. Young RH Jose Berrios was great for the Twins early on, but he's really struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 7.04 ERA in his last three starts. Heading into Saturday, the D-Backs are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. AL Central teams and 11-4 in their last 15 inter-league contests. Even better: Minny is an awful 98-183 (minus 46 games on the moneyline) as a home dog priced from +125 to +175, while Greinke's teams are 48-19 (+19 games on the moneyline) as a favorite with him on the hill. Take Arizona. MLB Road Warrior Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-17 | Packers v. Redskins -3 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -125 | 87 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins minus the points over Green Bay. The Packers blew out Philly, 24-9, at home last week, while Washington lost to Baltimore on the road by 20 points, 23-3. However, now, it's Washington which is the home team. And NFL teams have covered 63.1% of the time at home off a SU/ATS loss in Week 1, if their opponent was off a SU/ATS home win in its Preseason opener. Take Washington. |
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08-19-17 | Chiefs +1.5 v. Bengals | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 86 h 19 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs were upset as a 4-point favorite last week, 27-17, by the San Francisco 49ers, while Cincy downed Tampa Bay, 23-12. The Bengals, though, are generally a poor bet in the Preseason off a win, and especially when they're priced as an underdog of less than three points (or PK), as they're 2-11, 15% ATS. And teams off upset losses -- like Kansas City -- are generally good bets, as they've covered 58% of the time, provided they're not laying more than three points. So, off its upset loss, we'll take Kansas City at Cincy in Week 2. Indeed, one of the things I love to do in the Preseason is take teams on the road that lost their home opener by 7+ points as a 3-point (or greater) favorite. These teams have covered 69% of the time since 1983. Even better: away teams off double-digit losses are a 59% play in the preseason vs. foes off double-digit wins. Additionally, the Chiefs fall into 25-2, 66-36, 20-2 and 120-81 ATS Preseason systems of mine. Finally, Kansas City and Cincy have met five times in the Preseason since 1983, and the Bengals have yet to win, or cover the pointspread. Take Kansas City. Preseason Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-17 | Panthers v. Titans -3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 82 h 17 m | Show |
At 3 pm, on the NFL Network, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Carolina. The Titans only scored three points in Week 1 vs. the Jets. That's the bad news. But the good news is that they only gave up seven points. In contrast, the Panthers won, but also gave up 17 points to the Texans. One of the things I like to do is take losing teams off losses in the Preseason, if their defensive average is more than 7 points better than their opponent's, and their opponent is also off a win. Since 1983, our teams with the better defense have covered 82.6% of the time when not laying more than 5 points. Take Tennessee. |
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08-18-17 | Blue Jays v. Cubs -170 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Toronto Blue Jays. You could certainly argue that RHP Jake Arrieta is having his worst season since he joined the Cubs back in the second half of 2013. His 3.73 ERA and 1.20 WHIP are the highest they've been during that span and his HR rate has soared to 1.2 per nine IP this year. Yet despite all of this, you still can't deny that Arrieta is a winner and a big game pitcher who the Cubs will rely on heavily come October (assuming they make the post-season). There's something else that he does well, and that's pitch in these afternoon games at Wrigley. Arrieta has a career 3.26 ERA in 76 day games (74 starts) vs. 3.83 under the lights. Moreover, his teams are 74-36 as a favorite with him on the mound. His opposing starter this afternoon will be LHP J.A. Happ. With a record of 6-8, Happ won't come anywhere near the 20 wins he had in his breakout 2016 campaign, but that is no doubt due more to the steep decline in the Jays' run production this season than anything else. That offense will be even more muted today with the lack of the DH in this inter-league match-up. Finally, Happ's teams are 22-44 as an underdog in his starts. Take the Cubs. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-17-17 | Nationals v. Padres -109 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Washington Nationals. The Nats will be without one of baseball's best players, Bryce Harper, tonight, and that's a big advantage for the Padres. San Diego, of course, needs all the help it can get, as it's 12 games under .500 on the season. But the Padres come into tonight's home game off a 3-game sweep of the Phillies, and are starting to play better baseball. Jhoulys Chacin has been one of the team's bright spots this season, as he's 11-8, including 7-2 at home with a 1.86 ERA. He's also in good form, as his ERA is 3.00 in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by Edwin Jackson, who has been horrid vs. the Padres in his career. He's 0-6 in 10 starts (his teams are 1-9), with an ERA of 6.98 and a WHIP of 1.79. It just doesn't get uglier than that. Even worse: in his career, Jackson has struggled in games competitely-priced with odds between +125 and -125, as he's 57-87 (minus 32 games on the moneyline). In stark contrast, Chacin is 10-2 his last 12 in games with those price points! Take San Diego. MLB Mound Mismatch Massacre! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-17 | Rays v. Blue Jays -137 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. On July 4, after he had logged six starts, 24 year old RHP Jacob Faria looked like one of the best Rookie Starters of the season in either League, going 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA. But not so fast. In his last five starts, Faria has gone 1-3 and he's seen his ERA rise more than a run to 3.19. He will try to reverse the trend tonight in Toronto against the Jays and RH Marcus Stroman. But Stroman is having his best season, with a 10-6 record and 3.00 ERA through his first 24 starts. One more victory, and Stroman will equal his season high of 11 in his rookie season of 2014. And his accomplishments are made all that more impressive when you consider that this is probably the worst Jays team he's pitched for. Stroman has thrived at home this season, with a 2.61 ERA in 12 starts here at Rogers Centre. He's already faced the Rays twice in 2017 with pretty dominating results, going 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13 2/3 innings. Even with their victory on Tuesday, the Rays are 3-6 in the last nine meetings. Finally, the Blue Jays are 13-6 (68%) as a favorite behind Stroman this season (compared to 1-4 when he's been an underdog). Take Toronto. MLB Roadkill Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-15-17 | Tigers -111 v. Rangers | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -111 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Texas Rangers. Apparently all Tigers RHP Justin Verlander needed to return to his Cy Young form was about three months of work to get warmed up. Verlander was pretty putrid through the month of June and that may have been the main reason that he remained in Detroit when the non-waiver trade deadline came and went at then end of July. But since around the All Star break, Verlander has looked like the Verlander of old and he seems to be getting better with each successive start right now. After going 1-3 with a 3.82 ERA in six July starts (pretty good numbers compared to April through June), Verlander has now gone 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his first two August starts with 16 strikeouts and three walks in 15 innings. He'll look to keep it going tonight against the Rangers in Arlington, Texas, a place where Verlander has had some pretty good success in the past. In six starts at Rangers Ballpark covering just under 37 innings, Verlander is 4-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three while Rangers RHP A.J. Griffin is 1-2 with a 6.57 ERA over that same span. Despite their win on Monday, the Rangers are still just 6-13 in their last 19 games vs. teams with a losing record. Take the Tigers. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-14-17 | Orioles -115 v. Mariners | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Seattle Mariners. Orioles' RHP Kevin Gausman is getting the reputation as a second-half pitcher. Last year, the hard-throwing starter went 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 15 starts prior to the All-Star Game, while after the break, he went 8-6 with a 3.15 ERA in the same number of starts. And this season, Gausman is following suit, and his preference for the second half is even stronger. In 19 starts prior to the break, Gausman went 5-7 with a 5.85 ERA, and so far since the second half started he is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA in six starts. Although he's still looking for his first win of August, Gausman went 4-0 in the month of July and his ERA has been steady this month despite not getting the "W" in his first two August starts. That's Gausman's story at Safeco Field as well, as he is 0-2 here despite a very nice 3.20 ERA in three starts covering just under 20 innings. The Mariners are 4-11 in their last 15 home games vs. teams with a RH starter. Take the Orioles. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-13-17 | Astros -137 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. If you heard at the beginning of the season that Dallas Keuchel would be 9-2 with a 2.87 ERA after 14 starts, you would say that the 2015 Cy Young winner is back to his old form at roughly the mid-way point of the season. But actually, Keuchel's 9-2 and 2.87 were arrived at in a much different fashion. The veteran LH was actually 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his first 11 starts as of June 2 and then he proceeded to go on the DL for a neck injury. When he came off the DL almost two months later, Kuechel was a different pitcher - not in a good way - and so he has added two losses and more than a run to his ERA in the three starts since the end of July. Keuchel looks to get back on track against his cross-state rivals and RHP Andrew Cashner. In his first season with the Rangers, Cashner has lowered his ERA by more than 2 1/2 runs from its 2016 level, but his K:BB ratio of 1.28 is one of the worst of any starter in the game and it's a small miracle that he's managed to win seven times in 18 starts. Heading into Sunday, the road team is 6-3 in the last nine meetings. Additionally, Houston's 56-27 this season vs. righties (compared to 15-18 vs. lefties). Take the 'Stros. MLB Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-12-17 | Mets v. Phillies -131 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. In a season that's been like a dark cloud for the most part, there haven't been too many rays of sunshine for the Philadelphia Phillies. But one player who has not only met expectations but appears to have exceeded them up to this point is RHP Aaron Nola. After a successful rookie campaign in which he went 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 13 starts, Nola took a step backwards in 2016 and his first two months of 2017 looked like it would be a repeat of last year. But since June started, Nola has really turned things around. He went 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA that month, followed by 3-1 and 1.32 in five July starts. So far, he is following that up with a strong August - 2.77 ERA in two starts - although he is still looking for his first win of the month. That should come tonight against a Mets team that just traded away one of their few power bats as OF Jay Bruce was shipped off to Cleveland. LHP Steven Matz has really struggled this season, going 2-5 with a 5.77 ERA in 11 starts and he has never faced the Phils before. Nola and the Phils beat the Mets in New York on April 20, 6-4. Take Philadelphia. |
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08-12-17 | Reds v. Brewers -139 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. These two teams played a barnburner last night, won by the Reds 11-10. Tonight's game will no doubt be lower scoring, as Brent Suter takes the mound for the Brewers. This season, Suter's got a 2.45 ERA at home, with a 1.03 WHIP. Even better: Cincy's struggled vs. southpaws this season, as it's an awful 7-21, with a runs per game average of 3.8. Finally, Reds starter Scott Feldman's in poor form, as his ERA over his last three outings is a dreadful 6.23. Look for Milwaukee to snap its six-game losing streak this evening. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-12-17 | Indians v. Rays -135 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Cleveland Indians. The Indians just cut a deal to acquire slugging OF Jay Bruce from the Mets, and that trade could put their offense into the elite category in the league. That is, if the rest of it was healthy. Unfortunately, however, that is not the case right now as the Tribe has three regulars - Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Jason Kipnis - either on the DL or out of action this weekend due to injury. And add to that the loss of possibly the best LH set-up man in the game - Andrew Miller - and you have enough holes right now that it's hard to imagine a player like Bruce making up the difference. And the healthy Cleveland hitters have to face one of the AL's best tonight in Tampa RH Chris Archer, who is having another strong season, especially since the break. In the first half, Archer had a 3.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 19 starts, but since then he has posted a 3.19 ERA in five starts with a 1.13 WHIP and a 12.2 strikeout rate. He has quality starts in seven of his last eight and in his last three home starts, he has allowed two ER in 13 innings with 18 Ks and three BBs. Take the Rays. |
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08-11-17 | Astros -118 v. Rangers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. The latest installment of the battle for bragging rights in the Lone Star State kicks off tonight. About a month ago, you would have said that this would be a no-contest as the Astros were flying high and the Rangers were in a free fall. But fast forward to now, and it's the 'Stros who are reeling lately, having just been swept by the lowly White Sox, bringing their record to 2-7 in their last nine games. The Rangers haven't exactly been setting the world on fire either, but the bar is set considerably lower for them right now. Houston will send RHP Charlie Morton out to the mound to go opposite the Rangers' only ace left on the team after they traded Yu Darvish - LHP Cole Hamels. On the surface, the pitching match-up may sound like a mis-match, but it's actually Morton who has the better numbers recently. In his last three starts, Morton is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA while Hamels is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA over the same span. The Rangers are 0-5 in Hamels' last five starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-11-17 | Twins v. Tigers -118 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -118 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:10, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Minnesota Twins. Since RHP Anibal Sanchez won the ERA title in 2013, his ERA has moved in the wrong direction in each successive season. It sits at an unsightly 6.62 coming into this, his 10th start of the season. Yet somehow, Sanchez has managed a winning record for his club (3-2). And if Verlander or Zimmermann (or both) get traded away, the Tigers will be relying on Sanchez even more. The good news for tonight is that the Tigers have won each of his last four outings against this Minnesota club going back to last August. Opposing Sanchez and the Tigers on the mound will be RHP Kyle Gibson. It's not been a pretty season for the veteran as Gibson is 6-9 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 19 starts so far. The only positive thing you can say about Gibson is that he's been better on the road. But at 3-3 with a 5.31 ERA in eight road starts, that hardly instills confidence. The Twins are giving him an extra day of rest to see if that helps as they gave last night's start to 26-year-old rookie Dietrich Enns. It's unlikely the extra time will do much good for Gibson. Take Detroit. |
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08-10-17 | Angels v. Mariners -192 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -192 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Angels. If the Mariners don't make the 2017 post-season (and right now it doesn't appear they will), there will be plenty of players at whom to point the finger. One member of the M's who is very safe from taking any blame for the season is LHP James Paxton. Paxton is on a run of historic proportions, having won every start - seven - since the beginning of July. He'll look to make it eight in a row against Mike Trout and the Angels tonight. The streak actually began in Anaheim on July 2 when Paxton notched his sixth victory of the season in a 6-3 win in which he allowed just one L.A. run on two hits in 6 1/3 innings. Not only have the M's and Paxton won those seven starts in a row, but most of the games haven't been particularly close, with Seattle out-scoring its opponents by a total of 38-11 during this time. The Angels are 4-9 in their last 13 road games and 1-6 in their last seven road games vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-10-17 | Astros -182 v. White Sox | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -182 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Chicago White Sox. Where would the Astros be this season without Brad Peacock? The RHP has been arguably the biggest surprise in the American League, logging an incredible 10-1 record in 25 games (12 starts) with a 3.20 ERA. The 'Stros would likely still be in first place without him, but Peacock has ensured that they will run away with their division and he can certainly be credited should they finish with the top seed in the A.L. He will try for victory #11 tonight in Chicago - his first start ever at Guaranteed Rate Field and just his second career start against the White Sox. His first time against this team was very good as Peacock allowed just two runs in 6 2/3 innings in an easy 8-2 victory back in 2014. In addition to being one of the hottest teams in the league in general, the 'Stros have been red-hot on the road as they are 38-17 in their last 55 away from Houston. The White Sox will go for an unlikely three-game sweep tonight but it will not be easy as they are just 23-29 at home this season. The Astros' offense will get a much-needed boost tonight from the return of OF George Springer from his DL stint (quad). Take Houston. |
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08-10-17 | Mets -153 v. Phillies | Top | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. For only the second time this season, Mets RHP Jacob deGrom has lost back-to-back starts coming into this outing tonight (his 23rd of the season). But in the first of these last two starts, on July 29 in Seattle, deGrom had a quality outing and pitched well enough to win (6 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks, 1 BB) but got virtually no run support. The second one was just last Sunday night, and it happened to be against the best team in baseball - the Dodgers - so we can certainly give him a mulligan in that one. If there's one thing that can get him back on track, it's a start against the Phillies. In nine starts against the Phils, deGrom is 5-0 with a 2.34 ERA in just under 58 innings. Even more amazing is the fact that the Mets have never lost a deGrom start against Philadelphia (9-0) and they have out-scored the Phils 50-22 in those nine. RHP Vince Velasquez will get his 15th start of the season for the Phils and after a very successful sophomore season in which he went 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 24 starts, expectations were high coming into 2017. But the 25-year-old has fallen flat this season with virtually all of his stats heading in the wrong direction. The Mets are 49-21 in the last 70 meetings. Take New York. |
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08-09-17 | Marlins v. Nationals -166 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Miami Marlins. Southpaw veteran Gio Gonzalez will return from the Paternity List tonight to face the Marlins at home. Gonzalez and his wife welcomed their second child the other day, so he no doubt wants nothing more than to come back to win one for his new child, as well as help his team solidify a post-season berth. Gonzalez is enjoying one of his best seasons ever as he has gone 9-5 with a 2.66 ERA in his first 22 starts. Right before he went on leave, Gonzalez had the best start of his 2017 campaign, allowing just one hit in eight innings of work against this very same Marlins team in South Florida. In fact, Gonzalez has logged three starts against the Fish this year and he has done very well in those, having gone 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA with 20 strikeouts and seven walks in 21 innings. Those recent outings just add to the dominance that tonight's starter and the Nats have had over Miami as Washington is 8-3 in Gonzalez's last 11 starts vs. the Marlins. Miami is also 4-9 in its last 13 road games against teams with a winning record, as well as 1-4 in its last five starts vs. teams with a LH starter. Finally, Gonzalez's teams are 12-2 when he's had 7+ days of rest. Take the Nationals. MLB Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-08-17 | Mariners -115 v. A's | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics. The A's will send RHP Kendall Graveman to the mound for just his 10th start of the season. The right-hander will make his second start since returning from the disabled list with shoulder issues. Graveman was roughed up pretty good in his first outing off the DL, allowing seven runs on eight hits in just two innings last Thursday in San Francisco against a very bad Giants team. He obviously hopes to do better tonight at home against the division rival Mariners, but Graveman has not fared well vs. the M's in his career, going 1-3 with a 4.82 ERA in eight appearances (six starts) covering just over 37 innings against them. His biggest problem tonight might just be run support (or lack thereof). That's because LHP Ariel Miranda will go to the hill for the Mariners and the A's hitters have some of the worst numbers vs. southpaws in the entire American League. Oakland's lineup has hit just .236 with a .306 OBP and .683 OPS vs. left-handers so far this season. Seattle is 13-4 in its last 17 games vs. the A's at Oakland's Coliseum. Take the Mariners. MLB Road Warrior Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-07-17 | Cubs -183 v. Giants | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the San Francisco Giants. Cubs RHP Jake Arrieta is settling down and starting to pitch like he did the last two seasons, and that could be bad news for the rest of the Division. After going 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA in five June starts, Arrieta proceeded to log a 3-1 record with a 2.25 ERA in five starts last month, and his August is off to a very nice start as well. Last Wednesday, Arrieta threw seven innings of two run (one earned), three-hit ball with eight strikeouts but took a tough-luck loss against the Diamondbacks, 3-1. Arrieta has had more than a couple of those and tonight he'll try to avenge that latest one by going into San Francisco to face a Giants team that is just 3-13 in its last 16 during game one of a series. The Giants will go with LHP Matt Moore, who is having just as bad a season as his club is. Moore is just 3-11 with a 5.80 ERA in 22 starts coming into tonight and he has only won two of 11 starts here at home. Moore is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in his only other start vs. the Cubs. Finally, Jake Arrieta's led his team to wins in 34 of 44 road starts when priced as the favorite. Take Chicago. MLB ELITE INFO. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-06-17 | Padres v. Pirates -173 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the San Diego Padres. The Pirates staged a furious come-from-behind rally on Friday night to take the first game of this series, but couldn't duplicate that on Saturday as the Padres evened things up with a 5-2 victory. For the rubber game, Pittsburgh sends Jameson Taillon to the mound today and starts don't get much worse than the last two that the Bucs sophomore has had coming into this afternoon. And one of those was against a team that is arguably worse than the Padres (San Fran). However, those were nighttime starts. But Taillon has done much better in games under the sun than under the lights. In eight day games, Taillon is 5-1 with a 3.08 ERA, compared to 6-8 with a 4.27 ERA in 25 nighttime starts. On the other side of that coin is San Diego. The Padres have been pretty putrid in day games. Their record in these situations is 46-86 (minus 32 games on the moneyline). RH Clayton Richard will get his 23rd start with the Pads tonight. It hasn't been pretty for the 33-year-old this season as Richard leads the league with 12 losses, 175 hits allowed, and 80 ERs. Even worse: with Richard on the hill, the Padres are 0-7 this year in games where they were an underdog priced from +125 to +175. Take the Pirates. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-05-17 | Nationals v. Cubs -150 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Washington Nationals. In what could be an NLDS preview, the Nats visit Wrigley Field for a three-game weekend set. Game one went to the visitors on Friday afternoon as Tanner Roark continued his second-half surge for the Nats and the trio of Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, and Sean Doolittle gave DC what it's been lacking for so long -- an air-tight bullpen for the final two-plus innings of a game. This afternoon, however will be more about the starters and the big question is which version of Edwin Jackson will show up? The Nats veteran RH used to call Wrigley his home (2013-2015), but his numbers here don't inspire confidence today. In 43 games (31 starts), Jackson is 10-19 with an ugly 5.76 ERA here on the North Side. The Cubs will go with RH John Lackey. Lackey, who posted a quality start in his last outing over the Brewers, heads to the mound for the 21st time this season. The Cubs need the big veteran for the drive and he's not been disappointing, finishing July with a 3-0 record and a 3.27 ERA in four starts. Take the Cubs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-04-17 | Padres v. Pirates -170 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the San Diego Padres. Tonight will be a bit of a chance for revenge for Pirates RHP Ivan Nova. Nova got knocked around pretty good in his last start last Saturday in San Diego by the same Padres lineup. In just five innings of work, Nova allowed four runs on eight hits and took the loss in a 4-2 game as a result. That outing capped off a month of July that wasn't very kind to Nova as he went 2-3 with a 6.28 ERA in his five starts - easily his worst month of the season so far. But only one of those five starts was here at home and Nova has done by far his best work at PNC Park. In nine starts here coming into tonight, Nova is 7-2 with a 2.83 ERA vs. just 3-6 and 4.42 in 12 starts elsewhere. The home team will go with RH Travis Wood, who will get his second start in a San Diego uniform after being dealt to the Padres from the Royals in exchange for Ryan Buchter, Trevor Cahill, and Brandon Maurer. The Pirates are 4-1 in their last five home games vs. a southpaw starter, and Ivan Nova's teams have gone 57-26 when favored with him on the hill. Take Pittsburgh. |
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08-04-17 | Mariners -141 v. Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Kansas City Royals. James Paxton took home AL Pitcher of the Month honors for July and rightfully so. The big Seattle LH was spectacular, going 6-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in six starts last month. And now he gets to start off August with an outing against a team that he’s done very well against in the past (and has yet to face this season). In three career starts against the Royals, Paxton is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA with 13 strikeouts and one walk in just over 16 innings. Kansas City will go with RHP Jason Hammel who signed a free agent contract with the Royals back in February. The veteran RH has struggled at home this season, having gone 3-4 with a 4.68 ERA in 13 starts at Kauffman Stadium and in his career he is 3-6 with a 4.81 ERA in 17 appearances (15 starts) here. The Royals are 2-5 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter. Finally, the Mariners are 29-9 when priced from -125 to -175 on the road. Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-04-17 | Dodgers v. Mets +116 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers will bring out their prize from the trade deadline as RHP Darvish gets his first start with Los Angeles since being acquired on Monday afternoon for a trio of minor league prospects. The problem is that Darvish really hasn't been that reliable this season. So far, in 22 starts covering 137 innings, Darvish is just 6-9 with a 4.01 ERA, although anyone will concede that he has been pitching for a team that is far inferior to the red-hot Dodgers. But the other problem for Darvish and his new team tonight is that they will be facing one of the NL's best starters in RH Jacob deGrom. Against any other starter on this team, Darvish and the Boys in Blue would be huge favorites, but not so with deGrom going to the mound for his 22nd start. Striking out 10 last time out, deGrom became the first Mets pitcher to record eight double-digit strikeout games in a season since David Cone in 1992. He is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA in 10 starts at CitiField this season, while the Dodgers are 15-27 on the road when priced between +125 and -125. Take New York. |
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08-03-17 | Mariners v. Royals -128 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Seattle Mariners. Coming out of the All Star break, the Royals were one of the hottest teams in the American League, winning nine straight games between July 19 and 28. That hot streak put the Royals seven games over .500 and just two games behind the division-leading Indians. On July 24, they were only 1 1/2 games behind and so the Royals decided to make a move and acquired RH starter Trevor Cahill and closer Brandon Maurer from the Padres for Travis Wood and a minor league player in hopes that they could catch the Tribe. Tonight, Cahill will make his second start with the Royals and first at Kauffman Stadium. He allowed five runs on eight hits -- two home runs -- in four innings against the Red Sox in his last start, but that was at Fenway and he definitely gets some class relief in start #2 against the Mariners. Seattle hit just .235 as a team in the month of July. The Mariners are 1-4 in the last five meetings with KC, while KC is 12-3 at home after not scoring 4+ runs in any of their three previous games. Take the Royals. |
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08-03-17 | Rays v. Astros -150 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Tampa Bay. The Astros are off back to back losses, but are 26-11 off a loss this season. Even better: they're 16-5 their last 21 off a shutout loss, and also 13-1 behind starter Collin McHugh when priced -150 or higher. Take the Astros. |
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08-03-17 | Yankees v. Indians -133 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. At the eleventh hour (literally) of the trade deadline, the Yankees finally got their pitcher. Oakland sent RH Sonny Gray to the Bronx Bombers in exchange for some money and two of the Yankees minor league players in a deal that the Yanks are hoping will seal the AL East Pennant for them. But if Gray could hand-pick a situation that he wouldn't want to face in his first start in pinstripes, it might just be the one he's facing this evening. That's because he will be going into Cleveland to face the defending AL Champion Indians and their ace, RH Corey Kluber. In four starts at Progressive Field, Gray is 2-2 with a 5.87 ERA in 23 innings. And Kluber has been a Yankee-killer. In five starts vs. New York, the Cleveland ace is 3-1 with a sparkling 1.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 40 strikeouts and five walks in 33 innings. The Indians are 8-1 in Kluber's last nine starts during game one of a series, and 12-1 off 3+ losses. Take the Tribe. MLB GAME OF THE WEEK! As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-03-17 | Reds v. Pirates -156 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Cincinnati. The Pirates will try to avoid a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Reds tonight. Chad Kuhl will get the start for Pittsburgh, while Sal Romano starts for Cincy. The Buccos are a solid 18-9 when priced from -125 to -175 on the moneyline, while Cincy's a poor 55-101 (minus 21 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175. Take Pittsburgh. |
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08-02-17 | A's v. Giants -126 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -126 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Oakland Athletics. The two starters in this game - RH Daniel Gossett of the A's and LH Matt Moore of the Giants - have eerily similar numbers this season, and unfortunately for them that's not a good thing. But where as the 24-year-old Gossett has been pretty consistently bad throughout the season, Moore did most of his damage early on and has been much improved lately. Moore has compiled a 4.19 ERA in his last three starts covering just over 19 innings, compared with 6.04 over his 18 previous outings. And Moore has pitched much better at home this season than he has on the road as the 28-year-old has posted a 4.68 ERA in 10 starts at AT&T Park vs. a 7.23 ERA in 11 starts elsewhere. Gossett struggled against the Twins on July 28, giving up five runs (four earned) in 3 2/3 innings in a loss that dropped his record to 2-6 on the season. The Athletics are 6-19 in their last 25 inter-league games. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-02-17 | Phillies v. Angels -184 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies traded away both offense and pitching at the deadline. And with Jeremy Hellickson having moved on to the Orioles, RHP Jake Thompson will get a chance to move back into the rotation. After starting in all 10 of his games in his rookie season of 2016, Thompson had taken on a bullpen role this season, starting just once in his five appearances. Now he'll get another shot at the rotation. He pitched five scoreless innings Friday in his start against the Braves but Thompson has struggled in the Minors this season. In 18 starts for AAA Lehigh Valley, Thompson was 4-11 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 94 innings. The Angels will go with RH JC Ramirez for his 21st start of the season. Ramirez used to play for the Phillies after being traded from the Mariners in 2009. He's found new life here in Anaheim and has rewarded his new team with some pretty good numbers since last season. Heading into Wednesday, the Phillies are 0-10 in the last 10 meetings. Take the Halos. |
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08-02-17 | Rays v. Astros -200 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -200 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. It seems a bit odd that the Astros are being universally named as one of the big "losers" coming out of the non-waiver trade deadline. They almost certainly will win their division comfortably and have about a 10-game lead over the next best teams in the A.L. Still, they are being compared with the Dodgers and Yankees in terms of deadline deals with most people feeling they fell short. LH Dallas Keuchel makes his second start back from his DL stint tonight. His initial return was bad - to the tune of three runs on six hits in just three innings in Detroit. He should be able to bounce back off of that start tonight at home against a Tampa team that his hitting just .238 this season versus lefties. The Rays will go with rookie RH Austin Pruitt, who will make his second start in place of injured pitcher Jake Odorizzi. On Friday, Pruitt allowed five runs in five innings against the Yankees and he's facing arguably a better offense tonight in start #2. The Astros are an awesome 38-9 as a home favorite priced from -175 to -250 (and 17-2 their last 19 in this situation with Keuchel on the hill). Take Houston. |
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08-01-17 | Rays +102 v. Astros | Top | 6-4 | Win | 102 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Houston. The Rays lost a slugfest last night, 14-7, in Game 1 of this 3-game series. Game 2, however, will likely be much lower scoring, especially with ace Chris Archer on the hill. It's true that Archer has not won any of his last three starts. But he only gave up six earned runs in those three games (2.84 ERA). And the Rays are 5-2 in his seven career starts vs. Houston, while his ERA was 1.68 in those seven games. Take the Rays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-01-17 | Indians v. Red Sox -154 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Cleveland Indians. The non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone and the Boston Red Sox have to feel pretty good about their moves even if it appears they are taking a back seat to the Yankees The Sox upgraded both their offense and pitching with the additions of IF Eduardo Rodriguez and RP Addison Reed and those trades should allow them to at least keep pace with the Yankees despite their acquisitions. And the Yankees still don't have anyone in their rotation the caliber of LHP Chris Sale, who will get his 22nd start tonight (and his 10th at home). Sale leads the league in wins (13), ERA (2.37) and K:BB ratio (7.81) and if you think those numbers are good, you should check out what he's done here at Fenway in his first season with the Sox. Sale is 6-1 with a 2.07 ERA in nine starts covering just over 65 innings here so far. In a nutshell, Sale looks like a Cy Young pitcher who will lead his team deep into the post-season. The Sox are 5-0 in Sale's last five starts vs. teams from the AL Central. And Sale's given up 0 runs in his last three starts, and four of his last five. Take Boston. |
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08-01-17 | Reds v. Pirates -166 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -166 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Cincinnati Reds. There was a whirlwind of trade activity all around them, but the Pittsburgh Pirates decided that the best course of action at the deadline was basically no action. They did acquire reliever Joaquin Benoit from the Phillies and sent reliever Tony Watson to the Dodgers for some low-A prospects, but you have to dig pretty far down the news feeds to find those deals. Mediocrity sucks but at least fans in Pittsburgh can go to the games knowing that they're still going to see Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gerrit Cole on the field. Tonight it will be RHP Jameson Taillon going for his 15th start of the season. Taillon suffered the worst start of his career last time out in San Francisco as he allowed 10 runs (nine earned) on nine hits in just three innings. His fastball was not working for him that day (obviously), but he should be able to bounce back tonight against a Reds team that is just 4-17 in its last 21 road games vs. teams with a losing record. The Reds are also 1-9 in RHP Homer Bailey's last 10 starts vs. teams from NL Central. Take the Pirates. |
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07-31-17 | Blue Jays -157 v. White Sox | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -157 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Chicago White Sox. Midway through the month of June, the Blue Jays were flirting with a .500 record and just five games out in the AL East. It looked - based on those numbers - like the Jays might be buyers at the deadline, rather than sellers. But here we are at the deadline and now it appears Toronto is testing the waters with some veterans. The name most mentioned is LHP Francisco Liriano, who would seem to have no further future with the Jays after his 3-year contract is up this season. Tonight, however it will be RHP Marco Estrada taking the ball for the 22nd time and Estrada will try to get back on track on the road in Chicago. The veteran from Mexico has struggled through much of the season and is just 4-7 with a 5.43 ERA. Speaking of struggling, we've run out of words for White Sox RH James Shields. The right-hander has dropped to 1-3 since coming off the DL and the White Sox are 1-6 over his seven starts since June 18. Shields has a 7.94 ERA and .405 OBP allowed over his last 34 innings. And his teams are 10-28 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) his last 38 in an underdog role. Take Toronto. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-30-17 | Pirates -166 v. Padres | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the San Diego Padres. The Buccos dropped Games 1 + 2 of this 3-game set, so they'll look to win this afternoon to avoid a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Padres. Gerrit Cole will get the start for Pittsburgh, and he's 3-1 in his career vs. San Diego, with a 1.52 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Cole's also given up 2 runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. And his ERA over his last three outings is a super 2.37. In stark contrast, Garrett Richards has led the Padres to losses in six of his last seven starts, and he's only given up 2 runs or less in two of those seven games (7.77 ERA). With San Diego a miserable 46-84 (minus 30 games on the moneyline) in its last 130 daytime games, and the Pirates 17-9 in Gerrit Cole's last 26 daytime starts, we'll take the Pirates on this Sunday afternoon. MLB Road Warrior. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-29-17 | Pirates -124 v. Padres | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -124 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the San Diego Padres. There's good news and bad news when it comes to the 2017 San Diego Padres. The bad news is pretty much the same as it is most years - they're not a very good team. The good news is that - right now anyway - the Padres are not the worst team in the NL or even in the West Division. Currently, that latter title belongs to the Giants but it's likely little comfort to the Pads who, barring a miracle, will finish the season with their seventh straight losing campaign. They face the Pirates tonight for the second time in a three-game set. He's only had two starts here, but it seems that Pirates RH Ivan Nova loves pitching at Petco Park perhaps more than anywhere. That's because in those two outings, Nova has allowed just one run on eight hits with 15 strikeouts and two walks in 12 1/3 innings (a 0.73 ERA). Nova was roughed up in his last start to the tune of seven runs on nine hits in five innings but we'll give him a mulligan on that one as it was at Coors Field against the Rockies. The Pirates are 5-0 in Nova's last five starts with five days of rest. Take Pittsburgh. |
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07-29-17 | Orioles -115 v. Rangers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Texas Rangers. Kevin Gausman's season is starting to (finally) take a turn upwards, as his ERA is 5.79, but it's 0.75 over his last two games. He looks for this third straight strong performance tonight in Arlington, and is mound opponent will be Austin Bibens-Dirkx. Biben-Dirkx has an ERA of 7.45 at home this season, but is back in the rotation due to the injury suffered by Tyson Ross. In his only experience vs. Baltimore this season, he was shelled in a relief appearance on July 18 when he was responsible for two runs in 2 1-3 innings (but also gave up a grand slam to Chris Davis). Baltimore is a solid 74-42 (+19 games on the moneyline) as a favorite, and we'll take the Orioles on Saturday night. MLB Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-29-17 | Diamondbacks -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over St. Louis. Last night, we played on the Cardinals in Game 1 of this series, and got the cash in a 1-0 St. Louis victory. But we'll switch gears and play on the D-Backs behind Zach Greinke in Game 2, as St. Looey is an awful 7-21 its last 28 as a home underdog. Even worse for the Cardinals: Mike Leake's career ERA vs. Arizona is 4.92, while Greinke's 12-5 vs. St. Louis with a 3.27 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. And Greinke's given up 2 earned runs or less in seven of his eight career starts at St. Louis. Take Arizona. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-29-17 | Royals v. Red Sox -136 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Kansas City Royals. Sitting in second place in the AL West and only 1 1/2 games behind the Indians, the Royals believe they have a realistic shot at a post-season berth. Last week, KC pulled off a minor trade with the San Diego Padres, acquiring RH starter Trevor Cahill in a three-for-three deal with San Diego. Cahill will get his first Royals start tonight, and it's in a pretty tough spot. Not only does the veteran go to the American League where there is a designated hitter to deal with, but he also has to pitch his first game with his new team in Fenway Park - one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the Majors. The Red Sox made a trade with the NL West as well last week, acquiring 3B Eduardo Nunez from the Giants, thereby plugging the biggest hole in their lineup with a more-than-adequate glove and bat. The Sox probably aren't done as they are rumored to be going after pitching, but for tonight it will LH Eduardo Rodriguez going to the mound for his 13th start. The Royals are hitting just .248 vs. southpaws this season. Take Boston. |
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07-28-17 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Robbie Ray caught fire in the first half of the season and was so effective that he was voted to the All Star game for the first time in his career. The Arizona RH had a string of five starts between May 20 and June 11 that were as good as anything any starter had done in the Majors this season. But in his six starts since then, Ray has looked much more human, having gone 2-2 while allowing 18 runs (17 earned) in 34 2/3 innings (an ERA of right around 4.50) while his walk rate has soared as well. Perhaps the workload is getting to the 25-year-old strikeout artist? He'll look for some answers tonight in St. Louis while Cards RHP Michael Wacha will be more than happy to repeat his performance two starts ago in Queens against the Mets. Wacha threw his first-ever complete-game shutout in that one, but despite that success on the road, Wacha has done by far his best work at home this season. In 11 starts here at Busch, Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA (vs. 1-3 and 5.49 in seven starts elsewhere). Take the Cards. |
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07-28-17 | Angels v. Blue Jays -160 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Los Angeles Angels. The Jays come into this game having won four straight, including the last two in dramatic ninth-inning come-from-behind victories over the Oakland A's. Now another under-achieving AL West club comes into town in the form of the Angels of Anaheim. 25-year-old rookie RH Parker Bridwell will get his eighth start of the season for the Halos tonight. He's pitched well, but this will arguably be the toughest test of his young career being the first time he's set foot in Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Jays will go with last year's 20-game winner in LHP JA Happ. Happ won't win anywhere near 20 this season, and his ERA is about a run higher, but there are some things to like, such as the fact that his strikeout and walk rates are both improved over 2016's numbers. The Angels lineup could have trouble giving young Bridwell run support as they are hitting just .241 vs. southpaws this season. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-27-17 | A's v. Blue Jays -180 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Oakland Athletics. There have been quite a few MLB players who have had quietly good seasons this year, but none more-so than Blue Jays RHP Marcus Stroman. After a disappointing 2016 campaign in which he went 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA in 32 starts, expectations were somewhat muted for 2017. But Stroman has gone 9-5 with a 2.98 ERA in 20 starts heading into today's game and hardly anyone has noticed (except us, of course, as we have been riding him over his last several games). There are a couple of reasons for this. First, the focus for the Blue Jays is almost always on the offense and the pitchers on this team have taken a back seat to guys like Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista. Second - and perhaps more importantly - the Jays have really stunk it up this season, limping their way to a 47-54 record and last place standing in the AL East. But despite their disappointing play, the Jays will look to finish the season on a high note and Stroman will look to improve even more on a July that has resulted in a very nice 1.37 ERA in four starts. The A's are 1-11 in the last 12 meetings in Toronto. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-26-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -178 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Atlanta Braves. At first blush, Arizona LHP Patrick Corbin's numbers don't jump off the page at you. Corbin is 7-9 with a 4.43 ERA in 20 starts coming into this afternoon's game. But those are actually an improvement over Corbin's 2016 numbers as he went 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA in 36 games (24 starts) for the D-Backs. Corbin is 1-2 in the month of July with a 3.13 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 23 innings and in nine starts since June 2, he has dropped his ERA a full run from 5.43 to its current number. The Braves will turn to RHP Aaron Blair for his first Major League start of 2017. Blair was just 2-7 with an ugly 7.59 ERA in 15 starts last year after - somewhat ironically - the D-Backs traded him to the Braves after the 2015 season. The second-year RHP has posted a 4.86 ERA in 18 starts for Triple-A Gwinnett in 2017 so expectations should be tempered today here at Chase Field. Heading into Wednesday, the Diamondbacks are 39-18 in their last 57 home games. Even better: the D-Backs are 8-1 this season when priced from -175 to -250. Take Arizona. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-26-17 | Red Sox -212 v. Mariners | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Seattle. The BoSox dropped last night's game in 13 innings when Seattle scored two runs in the final frame to come from behind for a 6-5 win. But I love Boston to bounce back on this Wednesday afternoon with its ace on the hill. Chris Sale has been spectacular this season. He's 12-4 with a 2.48 ERA. But over his last five starts, his ERA is 1.32, and his WHIP is 0.85. And he's struck out 54 in his last 34 innings pitched. This afternoon, he'll have a huge advantage over his mound opponent, Andrew Moore. A rookie, Moore has had just five starts this season. And his last two have been poor (10.00 ERA; 1.77 WHIP). It's true the price is high for Boston, but it's been fantastic as a favorite priced at -200 or higher, as it's 10-1 this season, and 26-6 (+13 games on the moneyline) the last three years. Meanwhile, Seattle's 3-7 as a home dog its last 10, and 61-80 (minus 25 games on the moneyline) its last 141 vs. lefty starters. Take Boston. Mound Mismatch Massacre! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-25-17 | Royals v. Tigers -141 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -141 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Kansas City Royals. We were 2-1 yesterday with our lone loser being Detroit, in extra innings. We will come right back with the Tigers tonight. Like last night's game, tonight's affair is a pitching rematch from five days ago. That game was also won by Danny Duffy and the Royals, 16-4 (in Kansas City). Detroit's Michael Fulmer gave up 8 runs (5 earned) in a career-low 2 2-3 innings in that game, which halted Fulmer's personal 4-game win streak. In those 4 prior starts, Fulmer gave up just 8 runs in 30 2-3 innings (2.34 ERA), and struck out 16 against just 24 baserunners (0.78 WHIP). I look for Fulmer to bounce back on this Tuesday, as he rarely has two poor performances in a row. Indeed, he leads the American League with 16 quality starts this season, and has only had back-to-back non-quality starts once in his past 35 starts. The Tigers are 11-1 with him on the mound when priced as a home favorite between -125 and -175. And Detroit's 20-12 (+7 games on the moneyline) off an upset loss to a division rival, while KC is 3-6 off an upset win over a division foe. Take Detroit. AL Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-24-17 | Red Sox v. Mariners -147 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have gone to a six-man rotation in the month of July and that's a bit strange to say the least. But it's not nearly as strange as the fact that five of the six are left-handed pitchers. And while Brian Johnson and tonight's starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, are hardly household names, the other three - Drew Pomeranz, David Price, and Chris Sale - are pretty darn good. But this certainly explains why the Red Sox may be very interested in acquiring Sonny Gray (from the A's) or some other veteran RHP that can help them down the stretch. Rodriguez goes for 12th start of the season and although he really doesn't have great stuff, the 24-year-old teases the Sox every now and then with a strong start that is enough to keep them plugging him in there. And while Rodriguez's career seems to be stuck in neutral, Seattle's southpaw James Paxton appears to be on the verge of a big breakout. When healthy, Paxton has shown that he can be one of the more dominating left-handers in the league, as evidenced by his 3.05 ERA and 10.2 K's per nine IP. Seattle's 19-11 when priced from -125 to -175 this season. Take the Mariners. |
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07-24-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -191 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Atlanta Braves. The D-Backs probably felt good about starting the 2nd half with a three game series in Atlanta against the Braves last week. But their optimism was quickly dashed as the Braves put a three-game sweep on Arizona. Now the home team has a chance for some revenge as the Braves come into the desert for a three-game set. The Braves didn't have to face D-Backs RH ace Zack Greinke in that previous series, but they have to start out with him tonight. The Diamondbacks will also have the added benefit of some additional offense from newly-acquired OF J.D. Martinez, who they received from the Tigers in exchange for three minor league players. Greinke admittedly didn't have his best stuff in his last start, as he threw 104 pitches in five innings against the Reds. It was the first time he failed to go more than five since June 26. Look for an improvement tonight back home where Greinke is an incredible 9-0 with a 2.41 ERA in 11 starts. Greinke's teams are also 42-10 at home when priced from -175 to -250. Take the D-Backs. |
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07-24-17 | Royals v. Tigers -141 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -141 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over Kansas City. This is a rematch of a game played five days ago when KC and Jason Hammel downed Detroit and Justin Verlander 4-3. I look for Detroit and Verlander to gain a measure of revenge this evening. The Tigers busted out for 9 runs in yesterday's win, and are 35-12 after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game. Verlander's ERA over his last three starts is a solid 2.37, while his career ERA in his 44 starts vs. KC is 3.18. In contrast, Hammel's career ERA in his 8 starts vs. Detroit is an ugly 7.25 with a 1.91 WHIP. Take the Tigers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-17 | A's v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets and Oakland Athletics 'under' the total. It's no secret how many talented, young starting pitchers have come through the Mets organization in the last five years. But what New York probably didn't count on were the multitude of injuries that these hurlers would have to endure. The Mets might have preferred that RHP Rafael Montero develop himself as an effective bullpen option for the team. However the talented Dominican has essentially been forced into a starting role due to the injuries to Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Robert Gsellman. Montero has been a work in progress, with a tendency to walk far too many batters in his previous three seasons in the Majors. But Montero may finally have his control problems in check. Over his last three starts, he is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA, 18 strikeouts and five walks in 18 innings. And Montero has only issued a total of eight free passes since the end of May. Both of Montero's July starts have gone 'under' the total, as have 10 of his last 12 starts, overall. Take the 'under.' MLB Total of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-17 | Braves v. Dodgers -240 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta. The Dodgers were the hottest team in baseball before dropping their last two games. But, notwithstanding those two defeats, they're still the hottest team, as they're 31-6 their last 37. Southpaw Rich Hill has been a big part of the Dodgers' success as he has an 0.95 ERA over his last three starts. Additionally, he's 3-0 in his career vs. Atlanta, with a 1.93 ERA, while Julio Teheran is 0-6 vs. LA with a 6.47 ERA. Finally, the Dodgers are 53-14 (+26 games on the moneyline) as a favorite priced at -150 or better. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-17 | Brewers -118 v. Phillies | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia. The Brew Crew have dropped six straight, but I look for them to bounce back on this Saturday evening in the City of Brotherly Love. Milwaukee is a solid 19-6 as a favorite this season (+11 games on the moneyline), while Philly is a poor 17-40 at night, and 23-50 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) as an underdog. Take the Brewers. |
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07-22-17 | A's -102 v. Mets | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the New York Mets. Sean Manaea has been solid for Oakland this season, as his ERA is 3.68, and his WHIP is 1.20. Even better: over his last three starts, those numbers are 2.95 and 1.17. He'll match up against Zach Wheeler this evening at Citi Field. Wheeler has been dismal at home, with a 2-5 record, 5.52 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. And against the A's in his career, Wheeler's ERA is an awful 9.39, with a 1.95 WHIP. Take the Oakland A's. |
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07-22-17 | Rangers v. Rays -192 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -192 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Texas Rangers. Don't look now, but here come the Tampa Bay Rays. Heading into the weekend, the Rays are five games over .500 and sitting in second place in the AL East, just 3 1/2 games behind the Boston Red Sox. Were it not for this unlikely position in the standings, the Rays might very well be shopping ace RH Chris Archer to contending teams before the deadline. And Archer would likely return big value for the Rays as he is a relatively young strikeout artist with a very team-friendly contract that still has a couple of years left. But instead Archer will now almost certainly spend the next couple of months trying to get his Rays a Division Crown - or at least a Wild Card. He led the league in losses last season, but has improved in almost every category in 2017 and was an All Star for only the second time in his career. Archer has a strikeout rate of almost 11 per nine innings and he's already beaten the Rangers this season, back on May 31 in Arlington. The Rangers are 2-7 in RHP Andrew Cashner's last nine road starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-17 | Blue Jays +115 v. Indians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Cleveland. We've played on Marcus Stroman several times this season (as he's been the Jays' best starter), and will once again take him in an underdog role. His ERA is 1.45 over his last three starts, and he'll match up against Danny Salazar, who is coming off the DL. Even worse: Salazar is a poor 4-8 with a 6.16 ERA over his last 20 appearances (dating back to last season). And the Indians are an awful 1-6 vs. losing teams this season with Salazar on the hill. Take the Blue Jays. |
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07-22-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -160 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals. If the Cubs are going to compete with the Dodgers and Nationals for a second-straight NL Crown and trip to the World Series, they're going to need LHP Jon Lester to step up in the final two-plus months. To say 2017 has been a disappointment for the former Red Sox veteran would be an understatement as Lester is 6-6 with a 4.07 ERA in a league-leading 20 starts. Some pitchers might be happy with those numbers, but not Lester. Still, there are some reasons for optimism as he steps to the mound to face division-rival St. Louis. First, Lester has pitched much better at home than on the road, with a 3.73 ERA and 1.23 WHIP here vs. just 4.47 and 1.37 elsewhere. Second, he's pitched well against the Cards in the past, and the Cubs are 4-2 in Lester's last six outings vs. them. And Lester is a very good second half pitcher winning almost 2/3 of his decisions after the break (72-37, .661) with a post-All Star ERA of 3.36 (vs. 3.57 pre-break). He got 2017's second half off to a strong start with seven, three-hit innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Take Chicago. |
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07-21-17 | Pirates v. Rockies -134 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -134 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Two hot NL teams meet in Denver for a three-game series that kicks off tonight. The Pirates are on a five game win streak and the Rockies four, with the Pirates taking two of three from the Cardinals before sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee while Colorado beat the Mets in NY before heading home to sweep the Padres over three games. But whereas Pittsburgh squeaked by in its five victories (4-3, 4-2, 4-3, 3-2, 4-2), the Rockies have been a scoring machine. The tallies in their last four have been 13-4, 9-6, 9-7, and 18-4. With that kind of production, the Rox are probably sorry they had the day off yesterday. Rookie RH Jeff Hoffman will move into injured Tyler Chatwood’s spot and start on regular rest tonight. His numbers at home (6.44 ERA, 12 BBs, 20 Ks) are considerably worse than on the road, but with the numbers that the Colorado bats have been putting on the board lately, that will hardly matter. It's one of the main reasons he has the best win percentage on the team (6-1). The Rox are 20-7 in their last 27 games after a day off. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-21-17 | White Sox v. Royals -175 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Chicago White Sox. It's going to be a decidedly different White Sox team on the field most nights the rest of the season as the South-siders made two big trades in the past week, the latest being a seven-player deal that sent Todd Frazier and David Robertson to the Yanks. And it's still 10 days until the non-waiver deadline. Frazier was one of the only pure power bats in this lineup, and although the Sox immediately called up #1 prospect Yoan Moncada, the Cuban will likely need time in the Majors before he can be productive. Veteran RH Ian Kennedy gets tonight's start for the Royals, and over his last three starts, Kennedy has an ERA of 2.83, throwing at least six innings in each of those. He has also struck out seven batters in two of those and walked a total of just four. The one thing you can say about Kennedy (and it's proving itself again in 2017) is that he gets better as the season progresses. Check out these career ERA's by month (starting with May): 4.43, 4.37, 4.15, 3.42, and 3.22. His 2017 monthly ERA since May is 11.03, 4.08, and 2.79 so far in July. The Sox are 4-10 in their last 14 meetings in KC. Take the Royals. |
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07-21-17 | Tigers v. Twins -132 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -132 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have definitely come down to earth from their pre-All Star high when they led the AL Central race for what seemed like most of the first three months. But they're still capable of playing some very good ball, and they've done just that since the break, having just taken two of three from the Yankees here at home. Before that, they lost a series to the Astros, but managed to take a game - never an easy feat these days. The pitcher in that lone victory in the Houston series was RH Ervin Santana, who goes to the mound for his 20th start of the season tonight. Santana was an All Star for the first time in 10 years, and deservedly so. He is 11-6 with a 2.99 ERA and he leads the league in complete games with four and shutouts with three. The Tigers will go with RHP Anibal Sanchez, whose midsummer resurgence as a starter hit a rough patch in his last start. In that one, he allowed three homers for five runs over six innings vs.Toronto. He gave up eight runs over three innings in relief at Target Field this year. Take Minny. |
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07-20-17 | Padres v. Giants -200 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -200 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. If you want to sum up the Giants horrendous 2017 season to date, just consider this: Madison Bumgarner does not have a win in the first half of the season for the first time in his career since he became a full time starter in 2010. Of course, that wouldn't be the case had the ace LH not injured himself in a dirt bike riding accident on April 20. In many ways, Bumgarner is lucky that the injury wasn't worse, and he can take his time getting back to being the dominating pitcher that he was as his team clearly isn't going anywhere this season. The good news is that in his return from the DL last Saturday, Mad-bum was solid, throwing 102 pitches in seven innings while allowing three runs on just four hits. That return start was also against the Padres (in San Diego) and there's every reason to think that Bumgarner can improve off of that tonight at AT&T Park. Despite Mad-bum being win-less on the season, the Giants are 5-2 in his last seven home starts. Take San Fran. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-17 | Tigers -116 v. Royals | Top | 4-16 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Kansas City Royals. How often have we seen a pitcher come out of nowhere to win a Rookie of the Year Award, only to have a major regression in his sophomore campaign? Detroit RHP Michael Fulmer certainly fit the bill as he was not that highly touted coming into his first MLB season last year despite being the Mets' first round draft pick in 2011. But Fulmer pitched well enough to take home the top Rookie honors (and finish 10th in the Cy Young voting). He was certainly primed for a let-down coming into the 2017 season. But instead of being a disappointment, Fulmer has taken his game to the next level this season. The 24-year-old is 10-6 with a 3.06 ERA (the exact same number as last year), while lowering his WHIP to 1.07 and - more importantly - putting up the best walk rate in the league (0.5 per 9 IP). He also has thrown quality starts in all but two of his 18 outings. He's already beaten the Royals this season (at home) and now he'll try to do it again on the road. The Royals came into Wednesday's game struggling, having won just two of their past nine. Take Detroit. |
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07-20-17 | Blue Jays +112 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-6 | Win | 112 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. Admittedly, both pitchers (Toronto's Francisco Liriano and Boston's Doug Fister) have had their struggles this season. But it's hard to make a case for Fister, given that he's favored, as his teams are an awful 2-8 his last 10 starts at home when they've been installed as the favorite. Even worse: Fister's teams are 6-18 in his second half starts the past three years, while Liriano's teams are 23-10. Take Toronto in this underdog role. |
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07-19-17 | Cardinals v. Mets -168 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the St. Louis Cardinals. With their woeful performance and extremely poor standing in their own division, it's entirely possible that the Mets could move veteran players at the deadline in exchange for prospects. Lucas Duda is a name that's been kicked around recently. One name that won't be going anywhere is ace RH Jacob deGrom. deGrom is stamping himself as one of the top three or four RH pitchers in the League. deGrom is 10-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 18 starts, and those numbers would be even better were it not for back-to-back ugly starts at the end of May and beginning of June (15 runs on 18 hits in just eight combined innings). Since that first start last month, deGrom has been on fire, winning six straight starts while posting a 1.53 ERA in 47 innings. One of those was two starts ago against this Cards team, a 6-5 Mets victory in St. Louis in which deGrom allowed four runs on eight hits in seven innings, but didn't walk anyone. He's back home tonight, where he's done his best work this season, going 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA in nine starts (vs. 5-1 and 4.63 in the same number on the road). The Mets are 4-0 in deGrom's last four home starts. Take New York. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-19-17 | Rays v. A's -112 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Tampa Bay Rays. Rumors continue to circulate that RHP Sonny Gray will be moving to a contending team before the trade deadline. And if the Oakland ace is trying to make his case that he could help someone get deep into the post-season - and why wouldn't he want to make that case - then he's been doing a pretty good job lately. After stumbling his way to a 2-3 record with a 4.84 ERA in his first 10 starts through June 20, Gray has really turned it around in his last four trips to the hill. The 27-year-old is 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA in those last four starts, lowering his ERA on the season more than a run to 3.72. He'll try to keep it up with his second start of the season against the Rays. On June 10, in the first game of a double-header, Gray struck out 10 Tampa hitters while issuing just one walk in a strong no-decision. His defense let him down in that one as he allowed five runs, but only one was earned. Gray is a very good daytime pitcher, as he has a 19-10 record (.655) with a 2.99 ERA in 40 early starts (vs. 24-25 and 3.72 in 72 night games). The Athletics are 11-5 in Gray's last 16 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-18-17 | Nationals v. Angels -124 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -124 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Washington Nationals. This will be Edwin Jackson's first start of the 2017 season, as he will be replacing Joe Ross in the Nats' rotation. Ross tore his ulnar collateral ligament, and will miss the rest of this season. Thus, Jackson (who hurled for the Nationals five seasons ago) will be Washington's fifth starter. For the last month, he's been with AAA Syracuse. And, although he pitched well, he was poor with the Baltimore Orioles earlier this season when he appeared in three games as a reliever, and allowed seven runs (four earned) in those three relief appearances. Understandably, the Nationals have been installed as an underdog vs. Jesse Chavez and the Angels tonight. Chavez has been solid at home this season (3.35 ERA; 1.09 WHIP), and the Angels also have the added benefit of not playing on Monday (while Washington was in Cincinnati for an afternoon game). Anaheim is 127-92 (+28 games on the moneyline) when playing with a day off, while Washington's an awful 32-61 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) as an underdog. Take the Angels. MLB Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-18-17 | Blue Jays -107 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. We played on the Jays last night in Game 1 of this 4-game series, and will come right back with them in this 2nd game, tonight. J.A. Happ will get the start for Toronto, and he's looking to rebound from his last start -- an utter disaster, as his Jays fell 19-1 to Houston. I believe he will do just that, as his teams are 8-4 in his 12 starts vs. Boston, and his career ERA in those games is 3.69. Brian Johnson started once already this season vs. Toronto, and was ineffective (7.20 ERA; 2.00 WHIP). Happ's ERA on the road this season is 2.90, and his teams are 15-4 in his 2nd half road starts the past 2 seasons. Take Toronto. MLB Road Warrior. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-18-17 | Brewers v. Pirates -150 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Milwaukee Brewers. Brewer fans may not be all that used to having their team in first place after the break, but they have seen this movie before and it almost never has a happy ending. Milwaukee is famous for its second half swoons and since it's unlikely that the front office will go out to acquire new talent, the fans are nothing more than cautiously optimistic at this point. The Crew lost to the woeful Phillies on Sunday in the final game of what should've been a three-game sweep and now the road gets tougher as they head to Pittsburgh for a four-game set. Last night, the Buccos took Game 1 by a 4-2 score. Tonight, RHP Ivan Nova will go for the Bucs in game two and Nova is having an outstanding campaign in his second season in Pittsburgh. He doesn't get many strikeouts, but Nova does just about everything else very well as he is one of the most efficient hurlers in the game with a walk rate of just 1.1 and two complete games already to his credit. After starting out the season pretty well, Brewers RHP Junior Guerra has really struggled recently, going 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA in his last three starts. Take the Pirates. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-17 | Padres v. Rockies -165 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over San Diego. Luis Perdomo has found no success vs. the Colorado Rockies in his career. He's 0-2 in three starts (the Padres have lost all three games), with a 5.82 ERA. Even worse: all three starts were at home at Petco, so this will be his first career start at Coors Field. German Marquez has actually fared well here at Coors this season, as he's 3-2 with a respectable 4.66 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Finally, the Padres are an awful 17-50 as a road underdog priced from +150 to +200, while Marquez is 5-1 as a favorite. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-17 | Phillies v. Marlins -150 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Philadelphia Phillies. It's been a rough season for Marlins RHP Tom Koehler. Koehler got knocked around pretty good in the first six weeks of the season, as he posted a 1-4 record with a 7.04 ERA through May 16. It turned out he was trying to pitch through some shoulder bursitis and so Miami finally put Koehler on the DL and he missed the rest of May and all of June before returning. Unfortunately, two July starts fresh out of a minor league rehab stint didn't bring better results for the veteran. But to be fair, Koehler has faced some pretty good offensive lineups in his last four starts - the Cards (twice), Brewers, and Astros. A home start against the pathetic Phillies may be just what the doctor ordered. This will be Koehler's first time facing the Phils this season, however in five starts against them in 2016, Koehler went 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 33 innings. The Phillies are 14-44 in their last 58 road games. Take the Marlins. |
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07-17-17 | Blue Jays +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 106 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Boston. Marcus Stroman will get the start tonight for the Blue Jays, and he's been the Jays' best starter this season. He's 9-5 on the season, with a 3.28 ERA. And over his last three starts, his ERA is a microscopic 1.37. In contrast, Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled over his last three outings (4.58 ERA), and also vs. the Blue Jays in his career (1-3, 6.58 ERA). Take Toronto. |
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07-16-17 | New York Yankees - Game #2 v. Boston Red Sox - Game #2 -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, in the 2nd game of a double-header, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. Early on, the Yankees were probably hoping that they could go into the second half contending for a playoff spot (at least a wild card) without having to make deadline trades in exchange for their prospects. After all, they were a first place team through much of the first half. But there's already bad news for them as they limped into the All Star Break, losing series to the Astros, Blue Jays, and Brewers. The news gets worse too as they just learned that RHP Michael Pineda has a turn UCL and needs Tommy John surgery. And the Yanks lost their first game of the second half on Friday when their normally reliable closer - Aroldis Chapman - didn't retire a batter and allowed two runs in the ninth to take the loss. These teams are going to be exhausted having to play a double header today after a marathon of a game on Saturday. LH David Price seems to be building his arm strength since coming back from injury and he will start the second game of the twin bill in prime time. He has revenge on his mind after losing to the Yanks in the Bronx last month. Take the Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-16-17 | Giants -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. The Chicago Cubs got the trade season going last week, and rumors continue to swirl around other teams, including the Giants. Specifically, the Giants would no doubt love to trade some of their veteran pitching in exchange for some talented young bats, especially outfielders. There likely isn't a GM - of a contending team - that doesn't think that Jeff Samardzija's incredible metrics - a league leading 1.1 walk rate and ridiculous 9.07 K:BB ratio - could help his team, despite his record and ERA. And therein lies the enigma that is the 2017 version of Samardzija. Even with those incredible metrics, the veteran RHP is just 4-10 with an ugly 4.58 ERA in his 18 starts. No doubt Samardzija would like to increase his chances of getting moved to a contender with a strong start to the second half, and this outing against the Padres might just improve his chances. Samardzija is 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 career games (11 starts) against San Diego and he is 3-1 with a 2.04 ERA in six games (five starts) here at Petco Park. Take San Fran. |
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07-16-17 | Twins v. Astros -188 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. After scoring 19 runs in their last game before the break and 10 more in the first game coming back on Friday, the Astros' offense took the night off on Saturday, plating just two in a 4-2 loss here to the Twins. This is nothing more than a minor lull as the 'Stros have the strongest hitting lineup in the Majors by far, however their pitching could use an upgrade. With the trade deadline around the corner, don't be surprised if Houston goes after a starter and one of the pitchers on the bubble right now were the 'Stros to get somebody is RH Mike Fiers. Fiers gets his 18th start of the season today and he would like to solidify his position in the Houston rotation. And he may just be able to do that as he is 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA in eight games (seven starts) covering 43 innings against Minny. One starter the Astros won't be trying to acquire is Twins' RH Kyle Gibson. Gibson is having another sub-par campaign, having gone 5-7 with an ugly 6.31 ERA in 16 starts. Despite Saturday's loss, the 'Stros are 7-1 in the last eight meetings. Take Houston. |
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07-15-17 | Indians -185 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -185 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Oakland A's. Corey Kluber was an All Star for the second straight season (the second time in his career) and deservedly so. The Indians' veteran RH doesn't always get the credit he deserves at the mid-way point (he wasn't an All Star in 2014 when he won the Cy Young) so it was good to see him recognized for his body of work in the first half. Kluber didn't pitch in the game on Tuesday because he was the starter last Sunday (even though he only threw five innings in that one). Even though he's lowered his ERA with his two July starts, the month hasn't been kind to Kluber as he has only had two bad beats (to the Padres and Tigers) to show for his efforts. He'll try to get things going in the second half with his 15th start of the season tonight. Kluber has been on fire since June 1, having gone 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 82 strikeouts in eight starts covering 56 innings. A's rookie RH Paul Blackburn may be 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA in his two MLB starts, but he's only struck out four in 13 2/3 innings. Despite their 5-0 loss on Friday, the Tribe is still 9-3 in its last 12 road games. And Kluber has shut down the A's in his last two starts vs. them, as he's allowed 0 earned runs over 13 innings, with 17 strikeouts (and just 7 hits). Finally, the A's have won just 20 of 64 as dogs of +150 or more, including just 2 of 11 this season. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-15-17 | Phillies v. Brewers -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies. Many people thought - at the beginning of the season - that what the Brewers would be focused on right about now would be which veteran players they could move at the trade deadline to contending teams for prospects that they could build around. Instead however, what the Brew Crew is going to spend the rest of July doing is trying to hold on to their first-place standing in the NL Central, which grew to 3 1/2 games before the break. Their division rival Cubs have already made a move, acquiring LHP Jose Quintana from the White Sox, and now the Brewers need to find a way to keep winning with the group that got them to this point. And one of the big parts of that current group is RHP Jimmy Nelson. Nelson was one of the big break-out stories of the first half, as the 28-year-old pretty much developed into an ace before our eyes, going 8-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 18 starts. Most importantly, Nelson led the league in walks last season with 86, but this season he is on a pace to cut that number in half despite likely reaching close to 200 innings. His K:BB ratio sits at a career-best 4.37 (up from 1.63 in 2016). The Phillies are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings with the Crew. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-15-17 | Cubs -135 v. Orioles | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Baltimore Orioles. Chicago Cubs RHP Jake Arrieta comes back to pitch at Camden Yards for the first time since the Orioles traded him and Pedro Stroop to Chicago in exchange for Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman in 2013. No doubt that trade still haunts the O's, especially right now as they head into the second half with what can only be described as a rotation that is a work-in-progress. Of course, Arrieta hasn't been nearly as effective this season as he has in the past and this is arguably his worst campaign since joining the Cubs. But Arrieta is a strong second half performer, having gone 31-17 (.646) with a 3.19 ERA in 70 career games (64 starts) after the break (compared to 51-36 = .586 with a 3.94 ERA in 115 pre-break starts). The O's will go with LHP Wade Miley, who started out the season very strong, going 2-3 with a 2.82 ERA in his first 11 starts through June 1. But Miley has regressed significantly since then, having lost four of his next six decisions while watching his ERA rise all the way to almost five runs (4.97). He certainly looks like he could use the extra time off that the All Break has afforded him, but there is little reason to believe that Miley will flourish in the second half given that he has an unsightly WHIP of 1.75 and a K:BB ratio of just 1.57. Take the Cubbies. |
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07-14-17 | Mariners -160 v. White Sox | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Chicago White Sox. Mariners LHP James Paxton started out the season as one of the hottest starters in the AL, not allowing a run in his first three starts and going 3-0 with a 1.39 ERA in five starts through the first month of the season. But injuries slowed Paxton in May and although he was able to return before the end of that month, Paxton didn't quite look the same throughout June. Paxton was getting it together however in his two July starts before the break, going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in victories over the Angels and A's. The time between the All Star game and end of the month is always interesting as teams wishing to make trades before the deadline begin to get serious. And it's the White Sox who have made the first significant move this season, sending veteran LHP Jose Quintana to the Cubs in exchange for four prospects including talented OF Eloy Jimenez. They will send RHP James Shields to the mound tonight for his eighth start of the season. The veteran teased the Sox early on with a solid month of April, but has regressed significantly over his past four starts, including a 1-1 record and 9.00 ERA over his last three. Shields hasn't pitched since a July 4 Chicago loss in Oakland and he has never performed well off of significant rest of six days or more (8-19 with a 4.95 ERA). Take the M's. Mound Mismatch Massacre of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-17 | Rockies v. Mets -152 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Colorado Rockies. Mets RHP Jacob deGrom had a first half that was probably worthy of an All Star nod as the veteran went 9-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 111 innings, which is one of the best strikeout rates in the NL. But it was OF Michael Conforto who was the lone selection from the Mets and deGrom instead got to take some time off. He's clearly now established himself as the ace of this staff especially with the injury to Noah Syndergaard which continues to keep the hard-throwing teammate on the shelf in the second half of the season. So it's been deGrom who has become not only the best starter on the Mets, but also the de-facto leader of the staff, and he'll definitely have something to prove in the remaining 2 1/2 months, even if the Mets don't seem to be going anywhere. He gets start number 18 tonight and it will be at home where he has done his best work this season, going 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA in eight starts (vs. a 4.63 ERA in nine starts elsewhere). He's also been pretty spectacular in his career vs. the Rockies, going 2-0 with a sparkling 0.95 ERA in four starts covering just over 28 innings against them. The Rox are 3-11 in their last 14 meetings at CitiField. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-09-17 | Angels v. Rangers -178 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -178 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Los Angeles Angels. If the Rangers are going to compete for an AL Wild Card spot in the second half of the season (you can all but forget about a division crown), then they will need Yu Darvish to pitch like the ace that's he's been in the past (especially before his surgery). So far he hasn't done that, as Darvish is just 6-7 with a 3.56 ERA in 18 starts. His 9.6 K rate may seem very good, but it's actually the worst number of his career so far. Somehow, Darvish made the AL All Star roster with those numbers. But because he will pitch today, the veteran RH will not be available to take the mound next Tuesday in Miami. He's hoping that a final first-half start against the Angels will set him up for a solid second half as Darvish is 9-2 with a 3.45 ERA in 15 career starts vs. L.A. And those nine wins are the most against any opponent in the Majors. The Rangers are also 8-1 in Darvish's last nine starts vs. the Halos. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-09-17 | Brewers v. Yankees -147 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Milwaukee. The Pinstripes came back in the 9th inning to stun Milwaukee yesterday, and I look for them to make it two in a row on Sunday. Masahiro Tanaka has surely had an up-and-down season, as he won five straight decisions earlier in the year, then lost six straight decisions, and now has won his last two decisions. And he's given up just 3 earned runs over his last 21 innings pitched. The Yankees are 18-5 behind Tanaka at home, while the Brewers have won just 19 of Jimmy Nelson's 50 games as an underdog. Take New York. |
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07-08-17 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -168 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -168 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Cincinnati Reds. The NL West is shaping up to be the best division in the Majors. The AL East might be much more competitive from top to bottom, but the top three teams in the NL West are the cream of any division in baseball and that division is the only one that will be able to boast three clubs with 50 or more wins at the All Star Break. Whether or not the Rockies will be able to sustain their success remains to be seen, but the Diamondbacks have sent a strong message that they're probably going to be around come September, especially given their strong rotation. There are more accomplished starters on the roster than RH Taijuan Walker, and he doesn't lead the staff in Wins, ERA, WHIP, or really any other major pitching category. But when Walker goes to the hill for his new (as of 2017) team, the D-Backs win games, and that might just be the most important category of all. Arizona is 10-3 in Walker's starts this season, and that includes a 5-1 record in his six starts here at Chase Field. This will be Walker's first career start against the Reds, who will send rookie RH Luis Castillo to the mound for the fourth start of his MLB career. Castillo throws very hard (100 mph) but hasn't honed his skill to the Major League level yet. Heading into Saturday, the Reds are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings. And they're also a poor 106-193 (minus 48 games on the moneyline) their last 299 as an underdog. Take the D-Backs. MLB High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-08-17 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the San Francisco/Miami game. Jeff Samardzija and Chris O'Grady will hook up this evening in San Francisco. Samardzija has been pitching well (3.26 ERA; 0.93 WHIP), and the Giants have gone 'under' in six straight games. San Francisco is also 24-14 'under' at home this season, while Samardzija has held the Marlins to 5 runs in his last four starts (26 1-3 innings) vs. Miami. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-08-17 | Padres v. Phillies -152 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -152 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over San Diego. It's true that the Phillies are the worst team in the National League, with just 28 wins on the season. But we'll back Philly this afternoon, with Aaron Nola on the hill. Nola's won his last 3 starts, with a 1.27 ERA and an 0.93 WHIP. Jhoulys Chacin's been horrid on the road this season (9.33 ERA in 8 starts; 1.99 WHIP). Take Philadelphia. |
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07-08-17 | Astros v. Blue Jays -115 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Houston. It's been a disappointing season for the Blue Jays, but Marcus Stroman has been their best pitcher. The Jays have won 8 of his last 11 starts, including five of his last six at home. In his lone home start vs. Houston in the past two season (also against Michael Fiers), Stroman shut down the Astros (1 earned run in 6 1-3 innings; 8 strikeouts, 0 walks). Take Toronto. |
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07-07-17 | Marlins -109 v. Giants | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the San Francisco Giants. If someone had asked you back on April 1 who the best pitcher for the Marlins would be in the first half of the season, you likely would have been surprised to hear the answer was Dan Straily. But that's exactly the case heading into the All-Star break. Straily has logged a career-best 3.51 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 95 innings while opponents are hitting just .215 off him. But most important is the fact that he finally seems to have found his control. He always had a problem throwing strikes consistently, but this season for the first time, Straily has gotten his walk rate below 3.4 (2.7) and that has resulted in a career-best K:BB ratio of 3.24. To say it's been a rough season for Giants' LHP Matt Moore would be an understatement. Moore is 3-8 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.62 WHIP and the Giants are just 5-12 in his 17 starts. And "tonight" may be the most key word there. When Moore has pitched in day games, he's actually pretty good (2-3 with a 3.67 ERA in eight starts). But under the lights, it's a different story all-together. In nine night starts this season, Moore is 1-5 with an ugly 8.02 ERA and unfortunately that's the situation he's faced with here. The Giants are also 4-10 in their last 14 home games, and 7-20 in Moore's last 27 nighttime starts. Take the Marlins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-07-17 | Orioles -113 v. Twins | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over Minnesota. Kevin Gausman comes into this game off back to back shutout wins, and his ERA over his last three starts is a solid 1.50. Tonight, he'll face Twins rookie Felix Jorge, who comes into tonight's game off his first career victory in his major league debut. Jorge had pitched for Double-A Chattanooga this season, and was somewhat successful (3.26 ERA), but not dominant. He's projected to be a 4th starter at the major league level, as his fastball tops out at 95 mph, and he's yet to develop an overpowering 2nd pitch. Even though he got the win in his debut, he still put 8 runners on base in 5 innings (1.60 WHIP), and I expect him to struggle this evening. Take Baltimore. |
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07-07-17 | Angels v. Rangers -154 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Los Angeles Angels. In the "who would have seen that coming?" department, RHP Ricky Nolasco of the Angels comes into this start off of two shutout outings in a row. After blanking the Dodgers on five hits over 6 1/3 innings on June 26, Nolasco came back in his next start and threw a complete game, three-hit shutout over the Mariners last Saturday at home. Prior to that pair of 4-0 victories, Nolasco had lost six straight outings while the Angels had lost his last 10 in a row going back to the end of April. So it's hard to imagine that the veteran has all of a sudden figured things out right before the All Star break. But tonight will be a real test for him as the Rangers have plated 39 runs in their last six games and Nolasco is 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three career starts covering 17 innings against them. Rangers RHP Cole Hamels hopes to continue the hot run he had at the end of his last start. Hamels allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings in an 10-4 win over the White Sox on Saturday and he retired the last 19 batters he faced. He also has a career 2.93 ERA vs. Anaheim. The Angels did beat the Twins on Wednesday night but, unfortunately, they are 2-7 in their last nine games following a victory. Take Texas. |
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07-06-17 | A's v. Mariners -142 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -142 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics. Two first-year MLB RH rookies go to the mound to face each other in Seattle tonight as Oakland's Paul Blackburn will go opposite Sam Gaviglio of the Mariners. But there's a significant difference between the two of them. Although Blackburn hasn't allowed a run in his debut season and Gaviglio has a 3.48 ERA, Gaviglio has faced nine different teams, while Blackburn has only pitched against the Atlanta Braves so far (minus Freddy Freeman). So although Blackburn has the better ERA, Gaviglio by far has the edge in experience, and it's interesting to note that the only NL team he's faced is the one with perhaps the best lineup - the Washington Nationals. And Gaviglio held Harper, Murphy, Turner, and company to just a single earned run on six hits in six innings in that one on May 24. Perhaps most important for tonight is the fact that he put together another solid outing in his last start, allowing three earned runs over five hits in 6 1/3 innings against the Angels. Gaviglio's ERA in his five home starts this season is 2.00, while the Athletics are 10-25 in their last 35 road games. Take the Mariners. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-05-17 | Rays v. Cubs -152 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Tampa Bay Rays. It may seem strange that not one starting pitcher from the defending Champion Chicago Cubs is on the NL All Star roster. But it makes more sense when you look at the first-half stats for Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and tonight's starter - John Lackey. The veteran RH has struggled the most out of those aforementioned starters, as Lackey is having one of his toughest campaigns in a long time (5-9 with a 5.24 ERA in 16 starts). Perhaps an inter-league home start against the Rays and an inexperienced southpaw who's had his own struggles this season - Blake Snell - will help turn things around before next week's break. Lackey has flourished in his career in inter-league games, posting a very nice 3.29 ERA in 49 appearances (48 starts) in inter-league action. And at home, in interleague starts, Lackey's teams have gone 22-6. One of the more unlikely All-Stars selected to either squad this year is the Ray's Corey Dickerson, who secured a spot as the AL DH. Of course that means that Dickerson will not start in this series at Wrigley unless he plays the outfield. The Rays are 0-4 in Snell's last four starts and 1-5 in his last six on the road. Take the Cubs. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-04-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers -118 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Boston Red Sox. The BoSox won their fifth straight game last night -- a 7-5 victory over Texas in extra innings -- but will have to face a much more difficult pitcher in this game. Yu Darvish gets the call for the Rangers, and his ERA is 3.03 on the season (with a 1.08 WHIP). Those numbers greatly compare to David Price's pedestrian 4.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Even worse, on the road, Price's ERA balloons to 5.32, with a 1.40 WHIP. The Rangers are 35-17 at home when priced as a favorite of -150 or less. Take the Rangers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-22-17 | Nationals v. Astros -170 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -170 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
08-22-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays -195 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
08-21-17 | Giants +1.5 v. Browns | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -115 | 135 h 17 m | Show |
08-21-17 | A's v. Orioles -152 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
08-20-17 | Marlins v. Mets -160 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
08-20-17 | Mariners v. Rays -137 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
08-20-17 | Dodgers v. Tigers +141 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 141 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
08-19-17 | Bears +3 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 89 h 8 m | Show |
08-19-17 | Diamondbacks -141 v. Twins | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -141 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
08-19-17 | Packers v. Redskins -3 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -125 | 87 h 38 m | Show |
08-19-17 | Chiefs +1.5 v. Bengals | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 86 h 19 m | Show |
08-19-17 | Panthers v. Titans -3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 82 h 17 m | Show |
08-18-17 | Blue Jays v. Cubs -170 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
08-17-17 | Nationals v. Padres -109 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
08-16-17 | Rays v. Blue Jays -137 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
08-15-17 | Tigers -111 v. Rangers | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -111 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
08-14-17 | Orioles -115 v. Mariners | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
08-13-17 | Astros -137 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
08-12-17 | Mets v. Phillies -131 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
08-12-17 | Reds v. Brewers -139 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
08-12-17 | Indians v. Rays -135 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
08-11-17 | Astros -118 v. Rangers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
08-11-17 | Twins v. Tigers -118 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -118 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
08-10-17 | Angels v. Mariners -192 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -192 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
08-10-17 | Astros -182 v. White Sox | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -182 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
08-10-17 | Mets -153 v. Phillies | Top | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
08-09-17 | Marlins v. Nationals -166 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
08-08-17 | Mariners -115 v. A's | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
08-07-17 | Cubs -183 v. Giants | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
08-06-17 | Padres v. Pirates -173 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
08-05-17 | Nationals v. Cubs -150 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
08-04-17 | Padres v. Pirates -170 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
08-04-17 | Mariners -141 v. Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
08-04-17 | Dodgers v. Mets +116 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
08-03-17 | Mariners v. Royals -128 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
08-03-17 | Rays v. Astros -150 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
08-03-17 | Yankees v. Indians -133 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
08-03-17 | Reds v. Pirates -156 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
08-02-17 | A's v. Giants -126 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -126 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
08-02-17 | Phillies v. Angels -184 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
08-02-17 | Rays v. Astros -200 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -200 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
08-01-17 | Rays +102 v. Astros | Top | 6-4 | Win | 102 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
08-01-17 | Indians v. Red Sox -154 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
08-01-17 | Reds v. Pirates -166 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -166 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
07-31-17 | Blue Jays -157 v. White Sox | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -157 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
07-30-17 | Pirates -166 v. Padres | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
07-29-17 | Pirates -124 v. Padres | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -124 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
07-29-17 | Orioles -115 v. Rangers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
07-29-17 | Diamondbacks -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
07-29-17 | Royals v. Red Sox -136 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
07-28-17 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
07-28-17 | Angels v. Blue Jays -160 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
07-27-17 | A's v. Blue Jays -180 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
07-26-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -178 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
07-26-17 | Red Sox -212 v. Mariners | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
07-25-17 | Royals v. Tigers -141 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -141 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
07-24-17 | Red Sox v. Mariners -147 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
07-24-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -191 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
07-24-17 | Royals v. Tigers -141 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -141 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
07-23-17 | A's v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
07-22-17 | Braves v. Dodgers -240 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
07-22-17 | Brewers -118 v. Phillies | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
07-22-17 | A's -102 v. Mets | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
07-22-17 | Rangers v. Rays -192 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -192 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
07-22-17 | Blue Jays +115 v. Indians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
07-22-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -160 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
07-21-17 | Pirates v. Rockies -134 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -134 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
07-21-17 | White Sox v. Royals -175 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
07-21-17 | Tigers v. Twins -132 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -132 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
07-20-17 | Padres v. Giants -200 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -200 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
07-20-17 | Tigers -116 v. Royals | Top | 4-16 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
07-20-17 | Blue Jays +112 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-6 | Win | 112 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
07-19-17 | Cardinals v. Mets -168 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
07-19-17 | Rays v. A's -112 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
07-18-17 | Nationals v. Angels -124 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -124 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
07-18-17 | Blue Jays -107 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
07-18-17 | Brewers v. Pirates -150 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
07-17-17 | Padres v. Rockies -165 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
07-17-17 | Phillies v. Marlins -150 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
07-17-17 | Blue Jays +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 106 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
07-16-17 | New York Yankees - Game #2 v. Boston Red Sox - Game #2 -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
07-16-17 | Giants -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
07-16-17 | Twins v. Astros -188 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
07-15-17 | Indians -185 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -185 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
07-15-17 | Phillies v. Brewers -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
07-15-17 | Cubs -135 v. Orioles | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
07-14-17 | Mariners -160 v. White Sox | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
07-14-17 | Rockies v. Mets -152 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
07-09-17 | Angels v. Rangers -178 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -178 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
07-09-17 | Brewers v. Yankees -147 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
07-08-17 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -168 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -168 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
07-08-17 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
07-08-17 | Padres v. Phillies -152 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -152 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
07-08-17 | Astros v. Blue Jays -115 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
07-07-17 | Marlins -109 v. Giants | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
07-07-17 | Orioles -113 v. Twins | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
07-07-17 | Angels v. Rangers -154 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
07-06-17 | A's v. Mariners -142 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -142 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
07-05-17 | Rays v. Cubs -152 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
07-04-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers -118 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 58 m | Show |