Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-25-19 | A's -197 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Angels. A's starter Frankie Montas was setting the league on fire in the first half of the season. Through his first 15 starts, the 26-year-old RHP was 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 90 innings and seemed poised for an All Star selection in what appeared to be a breakout campaign. Then came news of a positive test for PEDs and Montas quickly went from hero to goat with an 80-game suspension. He's served his time now and Montas is back to make his first start since June 20 tonight in Anaheim. If he's 75% of what he was back in June, this should be Montas' time to shine to show the league that he's the real deal, and ready for the Post-season. Right after the All Star break, Angels LHP Andrew Heaney looked like he was going to finally break out and realize the potential which so many have predicted. July and August were solid for the 28-year-old but September has been a disaster (1-3 with a 9.31 ERA in four starts) so far. Oakland is 7-2 in Montas' last nine road starts vs. losing teams. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-19 | Cubs -188 v. Pirates | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -188 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cubs have been all but eliminated from post-season contention with a losing streak which has now reached 7 games. Their stretch run couldn't have gone any worse, and it was wholly unexpected for the team that -- only three years ago -- was on top of the baseball world. And the future doesn't look all that bright for a team which has many of its best players already into their prime, and whose minor league system has been depleted through trades. But even this Cubs team can win this one tonight in Pittsburgh. Veteran LHP Jon Lester will go to the hill for the 31st time this season. Lester has been a Pirates slayer through most of his career, going 12-6 with a 3.18 ERA in 22 starts covering just over 124 innings against Pittsburgh. And here at PNC Park, Lester is 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 10 career starts (58 1/3 innings). It also doesn't hurt his chances that the Bucs are going with 24-year-old rookie RHP Dario Agrazal, who is 4-5 with a 5.08 ERA in 14 games (13 starts). Take the Cubs. |
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09-25-19 | Cardinals -113 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Cardinals over Arizona. The Cards gave up a run in the bottom of the 9th last night, which tied the game at 1-run apiece, and then proceeded to lose in extra innings, 3-2. We'll take St. Louis to bounce back on Wednesay afternoon, as it's 18-7 this season on the road when favored -150 or less. Michael Wacha will get the start today, and he's given up just 10 runs over his last eight games (2.52 ERA). The Cards are a solid 16-3 behind Wacha when he's not allowed 2+ earned runs in either of his two previous starts. Take the Cardinals. |
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09-24-19 | A's -205 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -205 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Angels. It's looking pretty good for the Oakland A's to once again make the post-season when hardly anyone gave them a shot six months ago. The A's playoff probability is 97% heading into the week and they have series with the Angels and Mariners to close things out, so they are in the driver's seat. You can add Homer Bailey's name to the long list of veteran pitchers who have seen their careers rejuvenated in Oakland. The 33-year-old RH was 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA last season in Cincy, and then 7-6 with a 4.80 number in 18 starts with KC, before getting shipped off to the East Bay. Since donning the green and gold, Bailey has gone 6-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 12 starts, and he's coming off one of his best starts in a long time. Last Wednesday, Bailey threw seven innings of three-hit shutout ball against the Royals with 11 strikeouts and one walk. Anything close to that tonight should get him another victory and solidify his spot in the post-season rotation. Finally, we note that Bailey is 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA in six starts here at home this season. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-24-19 | Marlins v. Mets -250 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over Miami. The Mets lost last night, 8-4. And their post-season chances are now hanging by a thread. Tonight, they'll face Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara, who has a dismal 1-8 record over his last 15 starts. Even worse for Miami: it's 18-54 (minus 21 games on the money line) on the division road its last 70. New York will hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, who has dominated the Marlins in his career. He's made 10 starts vs. Miami, and owns a 7-1 record, with a 1.83 ERA and an 0.91 WHIP. Take New York. |
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09-24-19 | Cubs -185 v. Pirates | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -185 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's do or die right now for the Chicago Cubs who are four games behind in the race for the final NL Wild Card with six games to go. If there can be any good news for a team that has lost six games in a row it is that they will be starting a three-game series against the Pirates. If there has been a more lopsided series lately than the Cubs and Pirates, it's hard to imagine what it might look like. In the last five meetings between these two clubs, Chicago is 5-0 and has out-scored Pittsburgh by an absurd total of 56-16. On top of that ridiculous stat, you have RHP Kyle Hendricks going to the mound for the Cubs. And the veteran has been pretty dominant against the Bucs this season. In three 2019 starts vs. the Pirates, Hendricks is 1-1 with a sparkling 2.25 ERA a 1.00 WHIP in 16 innings. Meanwhile, the Pirates have imploded in the second half as they are 8-22 in their last 30 home games. Finally, the Cubs are 5-1 in Hendrick's last six starts and 4-0 in his last four vs. teams with a losing record. Take the Cubbies. |
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09-23-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -190 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. Add Blake Snell's name to the long list of Cy Young winners who come back the year after they win the award to lay a big fat egg. Of course, injuries have played a significant part in the southpaw's disappointing numbers this season -- 6-7 with a 4.19 ERA in 21 starts. Snell was shut down in July in order to have surgery on his ailing elbow. Fortunately, the surgery was of the arthroscopic variety and Snell appears fully recovered less than two months later. In his first start back on Sept. 17, Snell was limited to two innings, but was perfect over that period. Tonight he will go a little bit longer, but likely not more than four frames. If the 26-year-old can get back to a full workload in time for the playoffs and then contribute to success for his team, all will be forgotten regarding his 2019 struggles. Now eliminated from any playoff contention, the Red Sox will go with veteran RHP Jhoulys Chacin who is an ugly 3-11 with a 5.66 ERA in 23 games (22 starts). The Rays are 18-4 in Snell's last 22 home starts vs. winning teams. Take Tampa Bay. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-19 | Panthers +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Arizona. The Cardinals have been installed as a home favorite, notwithstanding the fact that they're winless on the season, and have covered just five of their last 18 games as a home favorite. Yes, it's true that Carolina's #1 QB, Cam Newton, is sidelined with a foot injury. But I don't view this entirely as a negative, as Newton was hampering his team with his horrible play. In the first two games, he was 50-for-89 for 572 yards, but 0 touchdowns, and one interception. On the ground, Newton was even worse, as he had 5 carries for minus-2 yards, and two fumbles. His QB rating is 26.9, which ranks #29 in the league! So, Ron Rivera's club will turn to Kyle Allen, a second-year QB out of the University of Houston. Allen made one start last season, and was impressive in a 33-14 road victory over New Orleans. Allen completed 16 of 27 passes for 228 yards, and accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing). That experience in front of a hostile crowd will stand him in good stead on Sunday, and I expect him to play extremely well. The Panthers fall into several of my favorite NFL systems, with records of 135-63, 156-70, 107-43, 153-74, 63-25 and 40-19 ATS since 1980. And the Panthers are also 39-18 ATS as a road underdog vs. foes that don't have a winning record, including 26-9 ATS vs. non-division opponents. Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -142 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals go for a rare, four-game sweep this afternoon in Chicago. And if the Cards are feeling sad about this series ending, they only have to wait a few days as they will get the Cubs again at home in the final series of the season next week. But for today's game, the Cards have to get by the pitcher who has been arguably the best starter on the team over the past month or so. In his last four starts, RHP Yu Darvish has allowed five earned runs on 16 hits in 26 innings with 41 strikeouts and only five walks. The key for Darvish this afternoon just might be that this is an early game. In nine starts during the day this season, Darvish is 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA, as opposed to 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 21 starts under the lights. The Cards will go with RHP Miles Mikolas who has taken quite a big step backwards after his breakout season of 2018. Mikolas is 9-14 with a 4.29 ERA in 31 starts after going 18-4 and 2.83 in 32 starts last year. Despite their defeat yesterday, the Cubs are still 21-8 in the last 29 home meetings with the Cards. Take Chicago. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -118 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals. It's been a strange season for Cubs LHP Jose Quintana. Despite his highest seasonal ERA (4.38) and one of the worst WHIPs of his career (1.34), Quintana has tied his career mark of 13 victories and has notched his highest win percentage ever (.619). And in outings when he doesn't have his best stuff and leaves early with a no-decision, the Cubs often win anyway. That was the case in Quintana's last start -- one of the worst of the season for him -- when the Cubs blew out the Pirates 16-6 despite him lasting less than three innings. Quintana has some solid career numbers against the Cards. In 10 starts against them he is 5-3 with a 3.81 ERA in 52 innings. This season, Quintana is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts vs. St. Louis. In the month of June, the Cubs lost all of Quintana's first five starts. But since the last start of that month, the club has been on a tear when he takes the mound, winning an incredible 11 of Quintana's last 14 starts. And they are 9-0 in his last nine starts vs. teams from within Chicago's division. NL Central Game of the Year on the Cubs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-19 | Southern Miss v. Alabama -38.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 33 h 60 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Southern Mississippi. The Crimson Tide come into this Saturday game off 3 wins, but back to back point spread defeats in their last two games. However, the good news for Alabama fans is that it is 13-1 ATS in the regular season since 1996 off back to back wins, if they lost against the point spread in each game. And their only ATS loss over this 14-game stretch was by a mere point (65-31 vs. Arkansas, as a 35-point favorite, in 2018). Additionally, the Golden Eagles are an awful 1-7 ATS as an underdog of 28+ points. And Alabama also falls into a super 63-21 ATS system of mine which plays on certain big favorites to blow out their opponent. Lay the points with Alabama. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -120 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals. This afternoon's start was supposed to belong to Jose Quintana, but the Cubs decided to push the veteran southpaw to Saturday. Instead, they will go this afternoon with 27-year-old journeyman RH Alec Mills. Mills was a 22nd round draft pick of the Royals in 2012 and spent a very short stint in Kansas City in 2016 before being traded to the Cubs in 2017. Mills came up with the Cubs in 2018 and pitched well, albeit in a very limited role. And this season it's more of the same as Mills didn't make an appearance until after the All Star Game, but he's been very effective as both a starter an reliever so far. He will make his first start since July 22 this afternoon and it just happens to be in a bit of a "do-or-die" situation, as the Cubs have fallen four games behind the division leading Cardinals (and one game behind Milwaukee in the Wild Card race). Mills has only made four starts in his career, but he has a 4.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and very solid 4.80 K:BB ratio leading off games. Meanwhile, the Cards are just 6-21 in the last 27 meetings in Chicago. Take the Cubs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane -4.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Houston. Tulane is off to its best start since 2013 (when it also began the season with a 2-1 record). And the Green Wave's lone defeat this season was on the road, at #8 Auburn, 24-6. In its other two games -- both at home -- the Green Wave thrashed Florida International, 42-14, as a 3-point favorite, and also demolished Missouri St., 58-6. This game will also be played in New Orleans, at Yulman Stadium, where Tulane has won 10 of its last 14 games (7-4 ATS). Faithful followers know I love playing on teams that can score, and especially when they're matched up against woeful defensive clubs. Tulane is averaging 35.3 ppg, while Houston is surrendering 32.3 ppg, so I fully expect Willie Fritz's men to light up the scoreboard tonight. Tulane is a super 7-0-1 ATS at home off a win by 28+ points. And it's 25-12 ATS when priced between -3 and -7.5 points at home, or on a neutral field. The favorite in this rivalry has gone 16-2 straight-up, and 14-4 ATS when priced at -3 or higher. Lay the points with Tulane. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-19 | Giants v. Red Sox -170 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the San Francisco Giants. If someone had told you that at the end of the regular season there would be a pitcher on the Red Sox staff that would be leading all others with close to 20 wins, an ERA in the mid-3's and better than a strikeout per inning and that pitcher was a left-hander, you would assume it would be Chris Sale. But in fact all of those things are true but we're talking about Eduardo Rodriguez. The 26-year-old southpaw broke out last season with 13 wins and a 3.82 ERA in 27 appearances (23 starts), but he's gone one better in 2019. Rodriguez is 17-5 with a 3.64 ERA in 31 starts covering just over 185 innings. He might not reach 20 victories, but he has a great shot at logging 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career (he has 189 coming into tonight). Start number 32 will be an inter-league game and E-Rod has done very well in those throughout his career. In 16 starts vs. the NL, he is 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 96 innings. More impressive, the Red Sox are 15-1 in Rodriguez's last 16 inter-league starts. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-19 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -170 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Miami Marlins. Having lost last night to this same Marlins club, the Arizona Diamondbacks are now "running on fumes" as far as their chances for the post-season are concerned. Arizona is now six games behind in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot -- with three other teams in front of them. So tonight is a "must-win" along with some help the D-Backs will need from some other teams as well. It's times like this when you want a veteran on the mound and RHP Mike Leake is certainly that. He may only be 11-11 on the season (and 2-3 with Arizona), but Leake knows how to win in pressure situations. And the fact that he's facing the lowly Marlins, who are just 53-98 on the season, doesn't hurt. Leake's overall numbers may not be pretty, but in his last three starts he is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings. In his career, Leake has faced the Marlins eight times and he is 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA in just over 49 innings against them. Despite their win last night, the Marlins are still just 1-5 in the last six meetings in Arizona. Take the D-Backs. MLB Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-19 | Phillies +173 v. Braves | Top | 5-4 | Win | 173 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. There's no question it's been a dreadful season for Phillies starter/reliever Vince Velasquez. The 27-year-old RHP is 6-7 with 4.95 ERA in 30 games, including 20 starts, covering a total of 103 2/3 innings. With six victories, Velasquez is just three away from his career best of nine, but it is unlikely he will get there. But despite the dismal numbers, the Phillies -- for whatever reason -- seem to show up when Velasquez takes the mound, which may be the only reason that -- with their backs against the wall -- the Phils keep putting the veteran out there every five days. In June, the Phillies lost the last six games in which Velasquez pitched (three starts and three as a reliever). But since the beginning of July, the Phils have been winning at a 73% rate when Velasquez -- now a full-time starter -- has taken the mound. The Phillies are 8-3 in his last 11 starts going back to the end of June. And in eight of those games they plated at least six runs. The Phillies are also 18-11 this season off of back-to-back losses. Take Philadelphia as a big underdog on Tuesday. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-16-19 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -207 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Miami Marlins. Each of Arizona LHP Robbie Ray's last two starts were cut short due to a lingering blister issue. And unfortunately for the 27-year-old strikeout artist, both of those outings were somewhat ugly, especially the last one when he lasted just 2/3 of an inning (five runs on five hits). The news coming out of Arizona is that there is no more blister concern. And if there is one opponent which can help get Ray back on track, it is likely the Marlins. He only has a career record of 2-3 against the Fish, but Ray owns a 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts covering just under 30 innings as well. Ray has a 12-8 record and 4.30 ERA along with 208 strikeouts in 157 innings this season. Meanwhile, Miami's .245 team batting average vs. southpaws this season is the second-worst such number in the National League (Chicago - .240). Finally, the Marlins are 1-6 in their last seven road games vs. teams with a left-handed starter. Take the Diamondbacks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City. The Chiefs opened up their season with a 40-26 win at Jacksonville, while Oakland upset Denver this past Monday night. One of the things I love to do is go against teams that scored a lot of points in Week 1. Indeed, since 1980, the majority of NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in Week 1 have scored less than 23 in Week 2. So, it's not really a surprise that NFL teams have cashed just 28% in Week 2 as favorites of more than 4 points, if they scored more than 38 points in Week 1. Last season, for example, the Saints scored 40 in Week 1, and were favored by 10 points vs. Cleveland in Week 2, but scored just 21, in a 3-point win, and failed to cover the point spread. I look for KC's offense to be held in check by Jon Gruden's men. Take Oakland + the points. NFL High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals -140 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers were doing pretty well recently, despite losing reigning MVP Christian Yelich to a season-ending knee injury. In fact, the Brew Crew had won seven games in a row between September 6th and 12th. But the loss of Yelich should eventually be the Brewers' undoing this season. The two teams split the first two games of this series, with the Cards winning 10-0 on Friday, before the Brewers came back last night, 5-2. The Cards will turn to RH Michael Wacha in the series finale. Wacha has struggled through much of the season, but has been pitching better since early August. After his first start last month, Wacha was sporting a 5.54 ERA. But since then, Wacha has allowed just nine earned runs over six starts covering 26 2/3 innings, lowering that ERA by more than half-a-run to 4.97. He allowed two runs in four innings in his last start, but it was in Denver against the Rockies, so it was much better than it first seems. The Cards are 8-2 in Wacha's last 10 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. And they're 41-17 this season (+19 games on the money line) when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, including 24-9 at home. Meanwhile, Milwaukee's a poor 13-23 this year as a road underdog of +150 or less, including 0-4 behind RHP Chase Anderson. Take St. Louis. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-19 | Vikings +3 v. Packers | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 57 h 15 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Green Bay. The Packers opened their 2019 campaign with an impressive 10-3 upset win at defending NFC North division champ, Chicago. On Sunday, the Packers will try to move to 2-0 within the division, as it tackles its other big rival, Minnesota. Unfortunately, the Packers have gone 0-6 with one Tie after a straight-up win since Dec. 17, 2017. And they're 0-6-1 ATS off their last seven point spread victories. Yikes! Green Bay also has gone 0-5-1 straight-up, and 1-5 ATS vs. the Vikings since 2016 when not favored by 6+ points. And single-digit home favorites have covered just 41% in Week 2 off an upset victory in Week 1. Take Minnesota. NFL Division Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-19 | Northern Illinois v. Nebraska -13.5 | Top | 8-44 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Northern Illinois. The Cornhuskers have yet to break into the point spread win column this year, as they're 0-2 ATS with losses to Colorado and South Alabama, while the Huskies are 2-0 ATS with point spread victories vs. Illinois State and Utah. Last week, Nebraska was favored by 4 points on the road, but fell to the Buffaloes in overtime, 34-31. It actually played a great first half, and broke out to a 17-0 lead. QB Adrian Martinez was key in that first stanza, as he was 9-of-9 for 180 yards, and also ran for 45 yards on six carries. Unfortunately, he fumbled the ball three times in that game -- and lost two of them -- which was a big part of the Cornhuskers' undoing. I like Nebraska to rebound this evening, as in Game 3 of the season, College Football home favorites have covered 65% of the time off an upset loss, if they were winless ATS on the season, and their foe was perfect ATS. That bodes well for Nebraska tonight. As does the fact that it has covered 69.7% since 1980 off a SU/ATS loss the previous week, if its opponent was off a point spread win (including a perfect 8-0 ATS when priced from -9 to -18.5 points). Lay the points with Nebraska. NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-19 | Western Kentucky v. Louisville -8 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Western Kentucky. This game will be played at a neutral site -- Nissan Stadium, in Nashville, Tennessee. Last week, we played on Western Kentucky as a touchdown underdog at Florida International, and were rewarded with a 20-14 upset victory. The Hilltoppers will now try to make it two-upsets-in-a-row tonight, and snap a 10-game losing streak to Louisville in the process. Last year, it started off well enough for WKU, as it broke out to a 14-0 lead. But it couldn't finish the job, and fell 20-17, as a 23.5-point underdog. The point spread is much lower in this game, so there's much less margin for error for the Hilltoppers. The Cardinals are 1-1 on the season, including a 35-17 defeat in Week 1 vs. Notre Dame. But Louisville was only outgained by 40 yards (423-383) in that game, and the Irish are ranked #7 in the country. Louisville did bounce back last Saturday with a 42-0 whitewash of Eastern Kentucky. And NCAA teams are 335-252-6 ATS away from home in the regular season off a shutout win, if matched up against an unrested foe. Lay the points with Scott Satterfield's Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-19 | Akron +2 v. Central Michigan | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips over Central Michigan. Last week, we played on Akron as an 8-point home underdog vs. UAB, but the Zips fell behind big in the 3rd quarter, and were unable to catch up -- eventually losing, 31-20. That also lowered Akron's record to 0-2 on the season. The Zips, though, will catch a break this week, and won't have to face the Chippewas' quarterback, Quinten Dormady, who is out with a knee injury. Dormady is 32-of-49 for 321 passing yards, and has thrown for 3 touchdowns (136.5 QB rating), so his absence looms large. Central Michigan was blown out last week, 61-0, by Wisconsin, as a 34-point underdog. And that doesn't bode well for CMU, as teams off defeats by more than 60 points have covered just 38.2% over the last 32 seasons. And home favorites that failed to cover the spread by 27+ points in their previous game have covered just 39.2% over the last 40 seasons as home favorites vs. foes off back to back losses. Take Akron. MAC Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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09-13-19 | Rays -132 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Angels. Until Blake Snell comes back from his injury -- he was scheduled to pitch for Durham on Thursday -- there's no question who the ace of the Rays' staff is. Veteran RHP Charlie Morton has been just what the doctor ordered this season for Tampa. For those who thought that Morton's numbers would fall off dramatically when he left Houston, they will need to think again. Morton's numbers in 2019 are every bit as good as they were in his two seasons with the 'Stros -- maybe better -- and one more victory would tie his career high of 15. His start tonight will also give him more than 30 for the first time in his career and he's already broken his career high in innings (176 1/3) and strikeouts (219). Start number 31 comes against an Angels team he has faced eight time already in his career with a 3-1 record to show for it. And talk about consistency. Morton has 15 starts both at home and on the road and he has an identical 7-3 record in both cases. The Rays are 12-4 in the last 16 meetings with the Angels. Take Tampa Bay. MLB Elite Info. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over North Carolina. Interestingly, these two ACC Carolina rivals have not played since 2015. The Tar Heels won (and covered) that game, which was the fourth straight meeting won, and fifth straight meeting covered, by the home team. The Tar Heels are 2-0 after upsetting Miami-Fla last week, and South Carolina in Week 1. Mack Brown's men will now play their first true road game of the season. Unfortunately, NCAA teams off back to back upset wins to start a season have cashed just 37% since 1980. Even worse: undefeated teams have cashed just 28% since 2001 in Game 3 of the season, if they are off an upset win, and now playing their first road game of the year. With North Carolina entering this game on a 7-game road losing streak, we'll lay the small number with Wake Forest. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-19 | Dodgers -213 v. Orioles | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Baltimore Orioles. The last time we saw veteran southpaw Rich Hill take the mound for the Dodgers was on June 19 in Los Angeles against the Giants. Hill was on a roll when he took the mound that day, but he had to leave after just one inning with a flexor strain and has not pitched for the Dodgers since. He'll make his return tonight in Baltimore against the Orioles and the Dodgers are certainly hoping they can add him to the combination of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler, and Clayton Kershaw in the rotation for the post-season. But first things first. Hill isn't expected to go too long tonight, but he probably couldn't have hand-picked a better spot to make his return in as he will face an Orioles team which is just 47-98 on the season. Despite the fact that Hill has only made 10 starts on the season, his numbers are pretty impressive -- 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 53 innings. And the Dodgers are 7-3 in those 10 starts. The Orioles are 5-17 in their last 22 inter-league home games. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-19 | Cubs -137 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the San Diego Padres. It's been a weird season for Cubs veteran RHP Yu Darvish. Darvish's overall numbers do not inspire a high level of confidence -- 5-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 28 starts and leading the league in both HRs allowed and hit-by-pitches. But Darvish is also a strikeout machine and he's only allowed 125 hits in 157 1/3 innings pitched. While the Cubs' struggles on the road this season have been well documented by now, those struggles have not extended to Darvish. In 15 starts away from the North Side of Chicago, Darvish is 3-3 with a 3.30 ERA vs. 2-3 and 5.14 in 13 starts at Wrigley Field. And this afternoon's game isn't just on the road, but it happens to be at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. The daytime aspect of this start is important as well. In 48 career afternoon outings, Darvish is 18-13 (.581) with a 3.13 ERA. In 119 starts under the lights, he is 44-38 (.537) with a 3.77 ERA. The Pads will go with RHP Dinelson Lamet (2-4; 3.95 in 11 starts) and they are a horrid 0-9 in his last nine starts here at home. Take the Cubs. |
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09-12-19 | Yankees -197 v. Tigers | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Minnesota Twins. For almost seven innings on Tuesday night there was a good old pitchers' duel going on at Target Field between starters Jose Berrios and Anibal Sanchez. The Twins finally broke it open in the seventh and eighth innings and took a 5-0 victory into their locker room when all was said and done. We, of course, were happy with that result, as we had Minnesota, and won for the 17th time in our last 18 baseball releases. Tonight, though, we will switch gears and take Washington (which is our choice at 18-1 odds to win the World Series). In Game 2 of this series, RH Stephen Strasburg goes in his 30th start of the season. The 30-year-old is having arguably the best season of his career. His 16 wins is already a career-high, he has a 4.72 K:BB ratio, and he is on track to break his career season strikeout mark of 242 (he has 222 coming into tonight). And as far as this match-up is concerned, Strasburg is an inter-league machine, going 11-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 21 starts against the AL covering 131 2/3 innings. The Nationals are also 8-0 in Strasburg's last eight inter-league starts and 5-0 in his last five vs. AL Central teams. Take Washington. |
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09-11-19 | Nationals -138 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Minnesota Twins. For almost seven innings on Tuesday night there was a good old pitchers' duel going on at Target Field between starters Jose Berrios and Anibal Sanchez. The Twins finally broke it open in the seventh and eighth innings and took a 5-0 victory into their locker room when all was said and done. We, of course, were happy with that result, as we had Minnesota, and won for the 17th time in our last 18 baseball releases. Tonight, though, we will switch gears and take Washington (which is our choice at 18-1 odds to win the World Series). In Game 2 of this series, RH Stephen Strasburg goes in his 30th start of the season. The 30-year-old is having arguably the best season of his career. His 16 wins is already a career-high, he has a 4.72 K:BB ratio, and he is on track to break his career season strikeout mark of 242 (he has 222 coming into tonight). And as far as this match-up is concerned, Strasburg is an inter-league machine, going 11-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 21 starts against the AL covering 131 2/3 innings. The Nationals are also 8-0 in Strasburg's last eight inter-league starts and 5-0 in his last five vs. AL Central teams. Take Washington. |
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09-11-19 | Diamondbacks -101 v. Mets | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the New York Mets. The D-Backs and Mets are battling for an NL Wild Card spot and are separated in that regard by just a half-game, so this game is critical for both teams. Diamondbacks RH starter Robbie Ray is having another good season. The 27-year-old is putting up an ERA around four runs, double-digit wins, and is racking up a ton of strikeouts in the process. Ray hasn't reached the level of the elite strikeout pitchers in the league, but that day may be coming soon as the D-Backs fire-baller enters his prime. Ray was putting up those big strikeout numbers again in his last start in Cincinnati against the Reds when he had to leave the game after just 4 1/3 innings due to a blister on his throwing hand. He had a successful bullpen session the other day so Ray should be good to go tonight against the Mets in a very important game. The D-Backs are 8-0 in Ray's last eight road starts vs. teams with a winning record, while the Mets are 1-7 in their last eight games vs. teams with a left-handed starter. Take Arizona. |
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09-10-19 | Nationals v. Twins -145 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Washington Nationals. Tonight, the Nationals will visit Minneapolis for the first time since 2008 and play a game at Target Field for the first time ever (Target opened in 2010). This is a series that is critical to both teams as the Twins try to stay ahead of the pesky Indians in the AL Central and the Nationals try to secure an NL Wild Card position (I actually like the Nationals to win the World Series, and recently released them at 18-1 odds to win the title). The first of the three games will feature RHPs Anibal Sanchez of the Nats and Jose Berrios of the Twins. Berrios has had a bit of a rough patch lately, but three of his last four starts have been on the road and he is back home tonight for this -- his 29th start of the season. Berrios has a 3.62 ERA at Target Field (12 starts) and a 3.90 ERA elsewhere (16 starts). The home team has been very dominant in this series, taking nine of the last 10 meetings going back to June of 2007. The Twins are also 5-1 in their last 6 inter-league home games vs.teams with a right-handed starter. Take Minnesota. MLB Elite Info Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-19 | Cubs -134 v. Padres | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the San Diego Padres. The Cubs need their players to step up in the final month of the season -- none more-so than veteran RHP Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has had a winning record in each of the previous five seasons he's been in the league (including 14 victories in 2018). But so far in 2019, the 29-year-old is just 9-9 even though he has a solid 3.39 ERA in his 26 starts. Hendricks gave up just one earned run over six innings last Monday vs. the Mariners. And that bodes well for him tonight, as the Cubs are 17-6 in Hendricks' last 23 starts following a Quality Start in his last outing. More good news is that, in four previous starts here at Petco Park, Hendricks is 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 25 innings. And overall, Hendricks is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA in nine starts vs. the Pads covering just over 57 innings. In general, the Cubs do very well in San Diego, having won eight of the last 11 meetings here going back to May of 2015. Finally, the Padres are 4-11 in their last 15 home games vs. teams with a winning record. Take Chicago. MLB Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -217 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Arizona Diamondbacks. After winning the first game of their critical three-game series against the Phillies on Friday, the Mets proceeded to lose big on Saturday and Sunday. So now New York finds itself four games behind in the race for the NL Wild Card (catching the Braves atop the Division is out of the question at this point). The Mets are up to their tricks of 2018 when ace Jacob deGrom takes the mound. Namely, they don't give him much run support even when he pitches lights out -- which is most of the time. Perhaps a start outside of the Division against the Diamondbacks will light a fire under the offense tonight. The good news is that in three previous starts against Arizona, deGrom has not only pitched very well -- a 1.74 ERA in 20 2/3 innings -- but he is 2-0. His third start against them was this past June and the Mets lost that one by one run, so this a revenge situation for deGrom and the team tonight. The D-Backs will go with RHP Merrill Kelly (10-13; 4.69) and they are 1-5 in Kelly's last six road starts. Take the Mets. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 86 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Pittsburgh. These two teams met last season, and we had a huge play on the Steelers as a 3-point home underdog. Pittsburgh played without Le'Veon Bell but still won that game, 17-10. But that game was in the Steel City. This Sunday night's game is in Foxborough, where the Patriots have never lost to Pittsburgh with Tom Brady at QB (Pittsburgh did win in 2008, but Matt Cassel was New England's QB that day). With Brady under center, New England has gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS vs. the Steelers. Even better: Bill Belichick's Patriots have cashed 76.4% ATS when playing with revenge from an upset defeat, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -8.5 points. And defending Super Bowl champs have cashed 85% since 1983 in Week 1 when they opened the season at home, and weren't favored by 6.5 (or more) points. Take New England. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -223 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. Originally signed as a 16-year-old, Julio Urias was considered by some to perhaps be the heir-apparent to the veteran aces of the Dodgers staff (Kershaw, Greinke, Hill, etc.). He made his Major League debut at age 19 and now the young RHP has more MLB experience under his belt than almost any other 23-year-old out there. But Urias hasn't become the full-time starter that many envisioned as major shoulder surgery last season derailed his advancement significantly. But that doesn't mean Urias hasn't found an important role on the L.A. staff. The young Mexican has become a very effective middle reliever and short-stint "opener" for the Dodgers. In his last 12 appearances going back to June 20, the Dodgers are 9-3, and three of those appearances have been starts lasting three innings, and they are 3-0 in those. Despite their loss last night, the Dodgers are still 50-16 in their last 66 home games. Take Los Angeles. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers -6 | Top | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 155 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Indianapolis. The Chargers were a darling among bettors last season, and were widely touted, at the end of the regular season, to reach the Super Bowl from the AFC. I wasn't as optimistic, as it's virtually impossible to win an NFL Championship as a Wild Card team. Indeed, I had a big play against the Chargers when they went into New England in the quarter-finals, and was rewarded with an easy 41-28 win. This season, I believe the Chargers will be one of the league's top teams again. Unfortunately, they reside in a division with the equally-talented Kansas City Chiefs, so they might be a Wild Card entry once again. Here, though, in the opening game of the season, they are a decided favorite vs. an Andrew Luck-less Colts team which will now be hard-pressed to earn a 2nd consecutive AFC South division title. The Chargers have run roughshod over AFC South division foes over the years, as they're 29-5-1 ATS since 2002, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Colts. And, going back further, one finds that the Chargers are 19-7 ATS vs. the Colts since 1981. It's true that Los Angeles has stumbled out of the gate with losses in Week 1 each of the previous three seasons. But they were road underdogs in two of those three games. For this contest, they're a touchdown favorite. And NFL teams favored between 6 and 7 points in Week 1, that won a Playoff game the previous season, have gone 12-0 straight-up since 2006, and 30-4 straight-up since 1981. The Chargers also fall into several of my best Week 1 angles that are 57-28, 75-36 and 72-44 ATS since 1980. Lay the points with Philip Rivers & Co. NFL Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-19 | Indians -162 v. Twins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins. Mike Clevinger has been the Indians' best starter this season and the team will likely go into the post-season with the 28-year-old RH as the leader of its rotation. Clevinger has been on quite a roll since June, allowing more than two runs on just two occasions in his last 12 starts going back to his July 3 outing against the Royals. And in eight of those 12 starts, Clevinger has allowed one run or less. Not surprisingly, the Tribe has gone 9-3 in those dozen outings. More importantly for this afternoon is the fact that Clevinger has faced the first-place Twins on two occasions this season and has given up just three earned runs on seven hits in 12 innings combined in those two starts. The road team is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these teams going back to June 6 of this season, and they are also 6-0 in his last six road starts. Finally, the Indians are 23-6 in Clevinger's last 29 starts vs. teams from the AL Central. Take Cleveland. MLB Road Warrior Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-19 | Nationals -121 v. Braves | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves. The Nats came into this series in Atlanta hoping -- and needing -- at least two victories out of the four games. That's not going to happen now as the Braves have taken each of the first three games coming into this afternoon's finale. Today will feature each of these two teams' aces as RHPs Mike Soroka of the Braves and Max Scherzer of the Nationals take the hill. Scherzer hasn't won a game since his first start in July -- five starts ago. But the good news is that , despite the fact that he hasn't been racking up the individual stats, Scherzer's team has been winning the lion's share of his starts. In fact the Nationals are 10-1 in Scherzer's last 11 outings. Certainly, Soroka's had a great season -- one which should get him some Cy Young consideration. But he's done much better on the road (6-1; 1.44 ERA in 14 starts) than he has at home (5-2; 4.02 in 11). And the Nats are 38-16 in Scherzer's last 54 road starts. Take Washington. 5* MLB Game of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns -5 | Top | 43-13 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 22 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Tennessee. The Cleveland Browns enter 2019 on an 11-season losing streak. Since 2008, they've gone 45-130-1 straight-up, and 76-95-5 ATS! The good news, though, for those on Lake Erie is that head coach Hue Jackson was fired midway through last season. Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator for the season's final eight games. And then he was named head coach 13 days after the season ended (ex-Tampa Bay offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, will take over as OC for the Browns). This season, most observers believe the Browns will battle it out with Pittsburgh for the AFC Central division title (both teams are projected to win nine games), and I actually would give the edge to Cleveland in that race. Notwithstanding Cleveland's poor history since 2008, it's still hard to make a case for Tennessee away from home. Indeed, the Titans have routinely burned money on the road since 2013, as they're 15-29-1 ATS outside The Volunteer State, including 0-2 ATS vs. these Browns. Meanwhile, Cleveland falls into several strong angles of mine, with records of 66-33, 61-21, 83-47, 81-47 and 65-26 ATS. A lot of folks are still in a "wait-and-see" mode with Cleveland, after it added Odell Beckham, Jr. in the offseason to a young, and talented corps of offensive players (e.g., Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb). I'm not waiting. I'm "all in" right now. Lay the points with Cleveland. NFL Game of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +3 | Top | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 129 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams. Last year, the Rams were my preseason pick (at 10-1 odds) to win the Super Bowl. I also had the New England Patriots at 5-2 odds to win the AFC. So, I came very close to being perfect on my preseason predictions. This year, I went with the Saints (at 10-1 odds) as my preseason Super Bowl pick. One reason I ultimately decided to not go with the Rams this season is that the loser of the Super Bowl has often struggled the following season. We saw that last season with Atlanta, which had a losing record the year after it lost the Super Bowl, in overtime, to New England. Another reason is that the Rams have a somewhat difficult non-division schedule this season, as they have to play road games at Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Atlanta and this game vs. the Panthers. Last season, they had a relatively easy non-division road schedule, including games against the Raiders, Lions and Broncos. The Panthers are 23-11 ATS at home vs. non-division foes (including 12-2 ATS when not favored by 3+ points), and they're also 6-2 ATS their last eight as a home underdog. And they're 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 meetings vs. the Rams. Finally, the Rams fall into negative 2-22 and 6-30 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams in competitively-priced games. Take Carolina. NFL High Roller! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 40-26 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Kansas City. Two years ago, the Jaguars reached the AFC Championship game, and led New England with less than 3 minutes to go before succumbing to defeat, 24-20. Last season, RB Leonard Fournette went down early with an injury, and the Jaguars' season unraveled from there. This season, Fournette is healthy, and the Jaguars will also have a better signal caller, as Nick Foles has taken over the reins at QB. The defense ranked #4 last season in scoring defense, and will once again be fierce, as most of last year's starters are returning. And the Jaguars also drafted Josh Allen, who was the 2018 Defensive Player of the Year in College Football. These two teams met last season at Arrowhead Stadium. Yes, Kansas City won that home game, 30-14. But it was not a good day for QB Patrick Mahomes. He was 22 of 38 for 313 yards, and failed to complete a touchdown pass. He also threw two interceptions, and had the lowest passer rating of his career in that game. Jacksonville allowed an average of just 195 passing yards per game last season, and I expect it to once again have success vs. Mahomes. Meanwhile, with Foles and Fournette on the field, Jacksonville should be able to move the ball very well vs. KC's lackluster defense. Take the home underdog Jaguars. NFL Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-19 | Minnesota v. Fresno State +3.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs + the points over Minnesota. These two teams met last season in Minneapolis, and the Gophers survived to win 21-14, after a trick play went awry in the game's final moments. The Bulldogs were on Minnesota's 4-yard line and attempted to tie the score with a halfback pass to their tight end, who was stationed in the back of the end zone. Unfortunately, Josh Hokit didn't get enough on his throw, and it was intercepted by Minny's Antoine Winfield, Jr. We will play on the Bulldogs as a home underdog in this revenge game, as Big 10 teams have been dreadful as non-conference single-digit road favorites vs. revenge-minded foes. Since 1984 they've covered just 36% of the time. Take Fresno + the points. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-07-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -230 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -230 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers' pipeline runs deep -- both with offensive players and pitchers. One of those pitchers who arrived -- before rosters expanded -- is 25-year-old RH Tony Gonsolin. Gonsolin is proof of just how deep that pipeline is. Just a ninth round draft pick in the 2016 amateur draft, Gonsolin has been outstanding in his rookie campaign. In six appearances -- five starts -- Gonsolin is 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 28 innings. Start number six will come tonight against a team he has yet to face. That shouldn't matter too much as Gonsolin will be pitching once again in his home park where he has been dominant. In two starts here at Dodger Stadium, Gonsolin is 2-0 with an incredible 0.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 11 innings. The Giants will go with a RH rookie of their own as 26 year-old Tyler Beede goes to the mound for the 21st time this season (19th start). Things haven't gone as smoothly for Beede who is 3-9 with a 5.61 ERA in 96 1/3 innings. The Giants are also 0-8 in Beede's last eight starts. Take L.A. |
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09-07-19 | Tigers v. A's -270 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Detroit. Oakland blew a 4-0 lead last night, and lost, 5-4, in 11 innings. But that was a rare victory for Detroit this season. Indeed, it's an awful 33-82 (minus 25 games on the money line) as an underdog this season. Meanwhile, the A's have been spectacular as a home favorite, as it's gone 71-30 (+26 games on the money line, including 39-13 (+16 games on the money line), when priced -150 or higher. Jordan Zimmermann will get the start for Detroit, and he's 1-9 in his 10 decisions this season. And Detroit's won just 2 of his last 17 starts! That doesn't bode well against the A's Chris Bassitt, who is 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Take Oakland. |
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09-07-19 | Nevada v. Oregon -23 | Top | 6-77 | Win | 100 | 135 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Nevada. Last week, Oregon lost, 27-21, to Auburn, while Nevada upset Purdue, 34-31, as an 11-point underdog. I love the Ducks to bounce back on Saturday, as College Football teams favored by more than 15 points have covered 66.1% of non-conference games since 1980, if they were off a loss to a non-conference foe, and their current opponent was off a SU/ATS win. Take the Ducks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +4.5 | Top | 45-38 | Loss | -105 | 135 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over LSU. This is the first match-up of this College Football season which features two teams ranked among the Top 10. LSU is ranked #6, while Texas is #9 in both the AP and the Coaches Poll. This will be just the 6th time since 1994 that the Longhorns have been installed as a home underdog vs. a non-conference foe. And Texas was a perfect 5-0 ATS in those five other games. The Longhorns opened their season with a 45-14 blowout win over Louisiana Tech, as a 19-point favorite. That also bodes well for Texas on Saturday night, as home underdogs have cashed 61% since 1980 off a SU/ATS win by 20+ points to open the season. Finally, Longhorns head coach Tom Herman has gone 13-2-1 ATS as an underdog in his stints with Houston and Texas, including 6-0-1 ATS when priced as an underdog of +7 or less points. Take Texas. |
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09-07-19 | Indians v. Twins -155 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians. Twins' RHP Jake Odorizzi has already set a personal high for victories, having won 14 times this season in 27 starts heading into his outing this evening. None of those 27 has been any more important to the Twins than this one as Minnesota hopes to put away the pesky Indians and take home its first Division Title since 2010. The Twins lost a tough one in extra innings on Friday, and now they must re-group and come out firing. And firing is something this offense can definitely do. The Twins have already set the Major League record for home runs in a season, having passed the 267 number that the Yankees set the record with in 2018 -- and we still have an entire month to go. There's no doubt that Odorizzi -- and other Twins starters -- have enjoyed the benefits of that offensive output. But Odorizzi has pitched very well regardless with a 3.61 ERA that is the second-best number he's put up in his eight seasons in the Majors. Despite its win on Friday, the Tribe is just 1-6 in its last seven games vs. winning teams. Take the Twins. |
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09-07-19 | Wyoming v. Texas State +7.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 18 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over Wyoming. Last week, the Cowboys shocked Missouri, 37-31, as a 15.5-point home underdog. Unfortunately, that sets them up for a big letdown on the road this week. Indeed, since 1984, teams off an upset win to kick off a season have covered just 19.04% in Week 2, if they were matched up against a non-conference foe off a SU/ATS loss. That doesn't bode well for Wyoming in San Marcos on Saturday night. Nor does the fact that Wyoming has covered just 23% as a non-conference road favorite (or PK) over the last 35 seasons. Take Texas State + the points. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-19 | Western Kentucky +7.5 v. Florida International | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 39 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Florida International. Both of these teams lost their season openers. The Panthers were trounced, 42-14, at Tulane, as a 3-point underdog. In contrast, the Hilltoppers were favored by 10 points last week against Central Arkansas. But they were upset, 35-28. And that continued a long-term trend in Western Kentucky games where the underdog has cashed 72 of 112 games (64.2% ATS). Even better: if the underdog was playing an opponent which wasn't off a win, then our 72-40 stat improves to 35-9 ATS, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +7 to +11.5 points. Take the Hilltoppers + the points. |
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09-07-19 | Vanderbilt +7.5 v. Purdue | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Purdue. We played against Vanderbilt last week, and were rewarded with a 30-6 Georgia win (and cover). But this Saturday, we'll take the points with Derek Mason's men. Purdue also lost last Saturday. But unlike Vandy, which was a 23-point underdog, Purdue was favored by double-digits. Yet, it was upset, 34-31, by a Nevada team which only returned 11 starters from last season. Turnovers were Purdue's major problem last week, as it coughed up the ball five times! But even though that's unlikely to happen again this week, I still don't believe the Boilermakers will bounce back. Indeed, dating back to 2005, College teams off an upset loss, as a favorite of -6 (or more) points in Week 1, have covered just 27.5 percent in Week 2 (including 21.8% vs. non-conference foes). Meanwhile, SEC teams, off a loss to a conference rival, have covered 62% since 1983 as underdogs of +3 (or more) points in non-conference games. Take the points with Vandy. NCAA High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-19 | UAB v. Akron +9 | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Akron Zips + the points over UAB. Akron was blown out, 42-3, at Illinois last weekend, while UAB hung on to defeat Alabama State, 24-19. The Zips look to bounce back off that loss and the good news is that they're back at InfoCision Stadium to play their home opener. Since 1980, home underdogs of less than 14 points have cashed 65 percent if they scored less than 7 points in their season opener! Also, UAB has been awful as a single-digit road favorite, as it's cashed just 4 of 19 games. I look for Akron to pull the upset in new head coach Tom Arth's first game at home. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +111 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 111 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. After a first half in which he went 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 18 starts, Brewers RHP Zach Davies has struggled since. But if the 26-year-old can have a strong month of September to help his team get to the playoffs, then all of those struggles will be forgotten. And that's what Davies did last season, when he posted his best ERA of 2018 (3.91) over five starts in the final month. His first start of this September is huge as the Cubs are in town for a 4-game set and they already drew first blood, beating the Brew Crew on Thursday, 10-5. Last season, Davies compiled a very strong 2.16 ERA in three starts vs. Chicago. This evening, the Cubs will go with LHP Cole Hamels in his 24th start of the season. Although he's been great at Wrigley (3-1 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 starts), Hamels has struggled in 2019 on the road. In 11 starts away from home, he is 4-4 with a 5.16 ERA. These two teams also met last weekend, and Davies blanked the Cubs over 4 2/3 innings last Saturday in Chicago. Finally, in Davies' career, when working on an extra day or two of rest, his teams have gone 27-18 (+11 games on the money line). Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -258 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. After a rare loss on Tuesday, the Astros got a day off yesterday before playing eight straight against Division Opponents (four each against the Mariners and A's). Game 1 of the Mariners series kicks off tonight with Wade Miley going to the hill for the 'Stros. You can say what you want about the dominance of Houston's "big three" -- Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and recently-acquired Zack Greinke. But when they needed a veteran LH in their rotation after not re-signing Dallas Keuchel, the Houston front office turned to Miley for a very affordable 1-year contract ($4.5 M). Miley has paid off big, proving more valuable to his team than many other southpaws out there making three times as much money. In 28 starts, Miley is 13-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, making him perhaps the biggest veteran value in baseball this season. The Astros are also 20-8 in his starts. This will be his fifth Houston start against the M's and he is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA against them coming in. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-04-19 | White Sox v. Indians -280 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox. It's hard to imagine anyone other than one of the Houston Astros aces -- Verlander or Cole -- winning the AL Cy Young at this point, but the Indians' RH starter Shane Bieber has to at least be part of the conversation. The 24-year-old is only in his second season and he already has an All Star MVP trophy to his credit. But most impressively, Bieber has stepped up in the wake of the losses of Corey Kluber (injury), Carlos Carrasco (cancer), and Trevor Bauer (trade) to become the ace of the Cleveland staff, and the youngster hasn't let the pressure get to him. Bieber is 12-7 with 3.27 ERA in 29 appearances (including 28 starts) and he leads the league with three complete games (two of those are shutouts). Bieber has been on a tear lately, allowing two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts going back to July 24. Despite their victory on Tuesday, the White Sox are just 15-29 in the last 44 meetings. The Tribe is also 11-3 in Bieber's last 14 starts following a team loss in its previous game. Take Cleveland. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-04-19 | Mets +109 v. Nationals | Top | 8-4 | Win | 109 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals. There are comebacks and then there is the comeback that the Nats had on Tuesday night. Down 10-4 after the Mets scored five runs in the top of the ninth, the Nats responded in the bottom of the inning with seven runs, including the clincher -- a dramatic three-run, walk-off homer by catcher Kurt Suzuki. No matter what happens today, it won't match the drama of last night, and that will be fine with the Mets as long as they can avoid another meltdown. RHP Zack Wheeler will take his nine wins to the mound in the series finale this afternoon. Throughout his career -- all of which has been with the Mets -- Wheeler has consistently pitched better on the road than he has at home. In 64 career road starts, Wheeler is 24-15 (.615) with a 3.48 ERA vs. 18-22 (.450) with a 4.29 number in 57 starts in Queens. The Nats will go with veteran RH Anibal Sanchez. Despite a successful season overall, the Nats are 0-4 in Sanchez's last four home starts vs. teams with a winning record. And, notwithstanding yesterday's loss, the Mets are still 7-2 in the last nine meetings. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-03-19 | Mets v. Nationals -129 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Mets. The Mets won Round 1 of this three-game series on Labor Day and it wasn't close. Noah Syndergaard bounced back and threw seven innings of shutout ball on the way to a 7-3 Mets victory in the Nation's capital. We had New York yesterday (part of a 3-0 Baseball sweep), but will switch gears and take the home team this evening. Tonight's Game 2 features a marquee pitching match-up that many will want to see. The top two starters in the League last season based on the NL Cy Young results will go to the mound as RH Jacob deGrom gets start number 28 for the Mets opposite RH Max Scherzer, who goes to the hill for the 23rd time for the Nationals. Scherzer made his first start back from a rare trip to the IL last time and was limited to 90 pitches in 4 1/3 innings against the Orioles in a game the Nats won easily 8-4. He didn't have his best stuff in that start last Wednesday but I expect to see a much-improved performance today in a game which means a lot more than Scherzer's last start. In fact, the Nats are now 9-1 in Scherzer's last 10 starts overall while the Mets are 1-4 in deGrom's last five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Nationals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-02-19 | Mariners v. Cubs -275 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Seattle Mariners. There is quite a bit of hype surrounding Justus Sheffield. The 23-year-old southpaw was the first round draft pick of the Indians in 2014 when he was just 18 years old. He didn't last long in Cleveland, getting shipped to the Yankees and then from New York to Seattle last year in the deal that sent James Paxton to the Bronx. Despite appearing in three games last season and three more so far in 2019, it appears that Sheffield is still a work in progress. Even his numbers in AAA before he got the call-up to the Mariners indicated that Sheffield wasn't ready for the prime time. And in his three appearances in the bigs (including two starts), Sheffield is 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in just over 11 innings. But regardless, the M's will put him back on the mound this afternoon in his first start at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will go with veteran RH Kyle Hendricks who is 9-9 with a 3.47 ERA in 25 starts, which pretty much mirrors the successful campaign he had in 2018. The Cubs are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a LH starter, and we'll lay the big price on Monday. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-02-19 | Giants v. Cardinals -173 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Francisco Giants. The Cards are the only team that veteran RHP Adam Wainwright has pitched for in his 15 years in the league. With his 1-year, $2 Million contract set to expire at the end of this season, it seems unlikely that Wainwright will be back in a Cardinals uniform. So no doubt, the veteran -- who has a World Series Ring from his second year in the Majors -- wants to go out on a high note and help his team make the post-season one last time before he departs. And one more victory would give Wainwright at least 10 for the 10th time in his stellar career as he currently sits at 9-9 with a 4.52 ERA in 25 starts. Wainwright has had a lot of success against the Giants in his career, as he owns a very nice 3.31 ERA in his 16 games (14 starts) vs. San Francisco. Even better: in 138 afternoon games (107 starts) in his career, Wainwright is 59-31 (.656) with a 3.37 ERA. Take the Cards. |
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09-02-19 | Mets -110 v. Nationals | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals. Noah Syndergaard's last start on August 28 is one he'd rather just forget. The big 27-year-old RH took the mound at home against the Cubs on that day and proceeded to give up 10 runs (nine earned) on nine hits in just three innings -- quite possibly the worst start of his now five-season MLB career. Syndergaard will look to get back on the winning track this afternoon in DC in his 27th start of 2019. It will be his fifth start of the season against the Nats and that's not a bad thing as the man they call Thor is 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with 24 strikeouts and five walks in 27 innings vs. them. And in two starts in 2019 at Nationals Park, Syndergaard is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 14 innings. Thanks in large part to that disastrous start last time out, Syndergaard's ERA on the road this season is more than a run better than it is at Citi Field (3.49 vs. 4.73). Finally, the Mets are 9-4 in Syndergaard's last 13 starts overall, 4-0 in his last four vs. NL East teams, and 6-1 in his last seven vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Mets. |
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09-01-19 | Red Sox -104 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Los Angeles Angels. After a strong bounce-back season in 2018 in which he won 16 games in 30 starts with a 3.58 ERA, veteran LHP David Price has taken a bit of a step backwards this season. But despite just seven victories and a 4.36 ERA in 21 starts covering 105 1/3 innings, there are some things to like about Price's campaign so far. The 33-year-old is punching out hitters at a higher rate this season than ever before (10.8 K rate) and he's kept his walk and home run rates down at the same level they were last season (1.3 and 2.6 respectively). So now that Price is healthy, I expect him to have a strong final month of the regular season, even if it won't help the Red Sox get to the post-season -- which seems unlikely at this point. In fact, September is Price's strongest month as he is 28-9 (.757) with a 3.03 ERA in 62 games (52 starts) in the final month throughout his career. The Red Sox are also 16-5 in Price's last 21 starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take Boston. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-19 | Dodgers -141 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -141 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Heading into last Sunday's marquee match-up against the Yankees in prime-time, Dodgers' LH ace Clayton Kershaw was a perfect four-for-four in his August starts, taking his record to 13-2 on the season. Despite pitching very well in that start against the Yankees -- three runs on four hits in seven innings with 12 strikeouts and no walks -- Kershaw took his first loss since the end of June. We actually played against Kershaw in that interleague game, and cashed a big play on the Yankees +158. But we will back Kershaw tonight on the road vs. the Dodgers' division rivals, Arizona. For his career, Kershaw has done well against the D-Backs, going 16-9 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 32 starts covering just under 201 innings. Los Angeles is 8-3 in Kershaw's last 11 starts vs. Arizona, and it is also 57-16 in Kershaw's last 73 starts vs. division rivals. Take the Dodgers. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-19 | Georgia -21.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Vanderbilt. The Commodores have been an SEC doormat for much of their existence, and have lost each of their last five seasons. They've gone 0-5 ATS their last five as a home underdog, and I look for them to get blown out tonight by a Georgia team which surely will want to redeem itself following its poor showing in the NCAA Football Playoffs last year against Texas. The Bulldogs are 20-8 ATS their last 28, while College Football teams have cashed 64% in Game 1 of the season (including 8-0 ATS their last eight) when favored away from home by more than seven points vs. conference foes. Take Georgia. NCAA Football Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-19 | Mets v. Phillies -100 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. Five starts into his Philadelphia career, veteran southpaw Jason Vargas has yet to win his first game in a Phillies uniform. The good news is that the 36-year-old has been pitching well and the Phils have won two of his starts so far, including his last one against the Pirates last Monday. Vargas gets his first start as a Phillie against his former team this afternoon. Vargas pitched for the Mets in 2007, and also the last two seasons, before he was traded to Philadelphia at the end of July. The Mets will counter with LHP Steven Matz. In his fifth year in the Majors -- all with the Mets -- Matz is 8-8 with a 4.06 ERA in just under 129 innings. But the most telling statistic for this afternoon is Matz's record at Citizens Bank Park. In six starts here covering 22 innings, Matz is 0-4 with an ugly 8.18 ERA and 2.09 WHIP. The Phils got crushed on Friday by an 11-5 final score, which was a nice win for us, as we had our MLB Division Underdog of the Week on the Mets. However, we'll switch gears and take the home team this afternoon, as it is 19-9 in its last 28 after allowing five runs or more in its previous game. Finally, the Mets are 1-6 in Matz's last seven road starts. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-19 | Toledo +12 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets + the points over Kentucky. The Rockets have won every single season this decade. They're 79-37 straight-up since 2010, and will go for their 10th straight winning year in 2019. One of Toledo's best point spread categories over this time is on the road, where it's gone 31-20 ATS. That bodes well this afternoon vs. a Kentucky team, which has tallied just three winning seasons among its last nine. And the Wildcats have gone just 23-32 ATS at home in this stretch, including 0-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2017, and also 0-7 ATS its last seven vs. non-conference foes, dating back to November 28, 2015. The Mid-American Conference has cashed 37 of 65 on the road vs. SEC Conference foes, and the Wildcats are ripe for an upset, as they graduated all-SEC running back Benny Snell, who was drafted in the 4th round by the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as linebacker Josh Allen, who was the National Defensive Player of the Year last season, and drafted in the 1st round by Jacksonville. Take the points with Toledo as a big underdog. NCAA Football High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-30-19 | Colorado State +13.5 v. Colorado | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Colorado. This rivalry has been controlled by Colorado over the last four years, as it's gone 4-0 straight-up, and 3-0-1 ATS, including a 45-13 win to open its season last year. But I love Colorado State to avenge that defeat, as it falls into 127-61, 35-13 and 80-48 ATS revenge systems of mine. Even better: the underdog is 19-11-1 ATS in this series, including 7-0 ATS priced from +7.5 to +17.5 when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. Also, the Rams are 25-13-1 ATS as a non-conference underdog of +12 or more points. Take the points in this rivalry game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-30-19 | Mets +128 v. Phillies | Top | 11-5 | Win | 128 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. It's now or never for the Mets. The New York team from the NL has lost six straight, having been swept by both the Braves and Cubs and now the Mets are a whopping 13 games out of first place and five games behind in the race for the final Wild Card spot. To say that this weekend series against the Phillies is their biggest of the season would be an understatement. Game 1 will feature RHP Zack Wheeler whose season mirrors somewhat that of his team. The 29-year-old is 9-7 with a 4.46 ERA in 25 starts covering just over 155 innings. The good news for tonight is that Wheeler does very well against the Phillies and really enjoys pitching at Citizens Bank Park. In 14 career starts against tonight's opponent, Wheeler is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA. And in six starts here in Philadelphia, he is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 38 innings. The Mets are 12-2 in their last 14 road games vs. right-handed starters and 5-2 in their last seven road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Take New York as the road underdog tonight. MLB Division Underdog of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-19 | Rams v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 28 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams. Houston was shutout, 34-0, last week by its Lone Star state rival, Dallas. I love the Texans to bounce back off that blowout loss, as teams have covered 70.8% in the preseason after failing to cover the point spread by more than 32 points in their previous game (including 89% off a shutout loss). Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-19 | Titans +3 v. Bears | Top | 19-15 | Win | 100 | 63 h 28 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Chicago. The Titans were embarrassed at home last week, 18-6, by the Pittsburgh Steelers. But off that awful offensive performance, we'll grab the points with the road team on Thursday. For technical support, consider that road underdogs off a home loss where they scored less than 7 points have covered 71% since 1983 in the preseason when matched up against a foe off a straight-up win. Take Tennessee. |
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08-29-19 | Giants +2.5 v. Patriots | Top | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 63 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants over New England. Both of these teams come into this game with 3-0 records. But we'll take the road underdog in this final preseason game, as underdogs have cashed 64.2% since 1997 in the preseason if they won their three previous games straight-up (including 79% if their opponent was also off back to back wins). Take New York. |
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08-29-19 | Cubs v. Mets -183 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -183 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Chicago Cubs. Jacob deGrom had one of the most amazing seasons in 2018. Despite getting little run support and barely finishing with a record over .500 (10-9), the Mets' RH ace had some of the best numbers of any starter in recent memory (a 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 269 strikeouts in 217 innings). In the end, deGrom was recognized for his incredible performance and was voted the NL Cy Young for the first time in his career. He's having another great campaign so far in 2019, notwithstanding his (once again) pedestrian 8-7 W/L record. Sure, the ERA is 2.56 instead of that eye-popping number last season, but he leads the league with 207 strikeouts and is among the league leaders in most other pitching categories. He'll get start number 27 tonight and it will come against a Cubs team against which he's had modest success. Jon Lester will start for Chicago and, after a successful July in which he went 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in four starts, he has really struggled this month. In five August starts, Lester is 1-3 with an 8.51 ERA and 2.01 WHIP. Additionally, the Cubs are 8-20 as a road underdog this year, including 2-6 behind Lester. Take the Mets. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-29-19 | UCLA +2.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 13 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Cincinnati. This is a big revenge game for the Bruins, who were walloped, 26-17, as a two-touchdown favorite by the Bearcats last season. That was Chip Kelly's debut as the UCLA coach, following the departure of Jim Mora. And it was a harbinger of things to come, as UCLA finished the 2018 campaign with just three victories. The reality last season was that Kelly was missing a lot of pieces on offense. UCLA's star quarterback, Josh Rosen, had just been drafted into the NFL. And the Bruins also had graduated their top two receivers, and three all-conference linemen. More important to me than its 3-9 record last season was the fact that UCLA improved toward the end of the year, as it gained experience playing under Kelly. Indeed, the Bruins went 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, including a 34-27 upset win over rival Southern Cal. This season, however, most of UCLA's key personnel will be back, as it returns 19 starters (9 offense; 10 defense). In contrast, the Bearcats are returning just 14 players (7 offense, 7 defense). That bodes well for UCLA. As does the fact that the Bruins are an awesome 70-45 ATS in regular season non-conference games. Take UCLA + the points. NCAA Football Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-19 | A's -188 v. Royals | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Kansas City Royals. If the Oakland A's make the 2019 post-season, they will have done it with one of the largest and most varied collection of starting pitchers in recent memory. The A's have used no fewer than 13 different players as starters or openers this season, and you wouldn't think that would be a formula for success. But here we are almost in September, and Oakland is 20 games over .500 and right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. One of those somewhat anonymous starters for the A's this season is 30-year-old RH Chris Bassitt. In 22 starts, Bassitt is 9-5 with a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in just over 125 innings. Start number 23 will come against a Royals team which Bassitt has not faced so far this season. And KC has been the worst offensive team in the entire league this month. In 23 August games, the Royals are batting .219 and have plated a league-worst 88 runs. The A's are 16-6 in the last 22 meetings with the Royals, and we'll take them on the road this afternoon. Take Oakland. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-28-19 | Rays +190 v. Astros | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Houston Astros. If this series is a playoff preview, then the Rays will have to do better than last night. The 'Stros embarrassed their visitors on Tuesday, handing the Rays a 15-1 beat-down here at Minute Maid Park. If anyone can get them out of their funk, perhaps it's LHP Ryan Yarbrough who's been doing it pretty much all season for the Rays. Most people didn't even know who Yarbrough was when he won 16 games and finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting for the Rays in 2018, and perhaps not many more do now. But nobody can deny the impact that the 27-year-old southpaw has had on his team this season, especially in the wake of the serious elbow injury to ace Blake Snell. All Yarbrough has done is go 11-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 22 games -- eight starts -- covering just over 109 innings so far. But the most impressive stat -- and most relevant to tonight -- is the fact that the Rays are 6-0 in Yarbrough's last six road starts. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-28-19 | Orioles v. Nationals -390 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Baltimore Orioles. In the Washington-Baltimore corridor they call it "The Battle of the Beltways" and round one went to the Orioles on Tuesday night. Who would have thought that of all the teams that could stop the offensive juggernaut that has been the Washington Nationals over the past 10 days it would be the Orioles? However they came into DC last night and shut down Turner, Rendon, and Soto in a 2-0 upset. But tonight they will have another problem to deal with and that problem is Max Scherzer. For only the second time since he joined the Nats, Scherzer had to go on the IL recently with a neck/back issue. But as you might expect with a player as intense as Scherzer, his stay on the shelf was short-lived and the veteran RH came back on August 22 with a shortened start (four innings) in a game the Nats won easily. He should be ready to go for a longer workload tonight as the Nats prepare for what appears to be an almost certain post-season run. Despite their win on Tuesday, the O's are just 3-8 in the last 11 meetings with the Nats. Take Washington. |
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08-28-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -134 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's been a rough season for the Phillies veteran RH Vince Velasquez. Once thought of as a potential ace in 2016 when he posted eight wins with a 4.12 ERA and a 10.4 strikeout rate, things have gone downhill for the 27-year-old in the two plus seasons since then. So far in 2019, Velasquez is 5-7 with a 4.93 ERA in 27 games including 17 starts coming into tonight. But if there's a silver lining to his cloud -- at least for tonight -- it might be the fact that Velasquez has pitched substantially better at home this season than he has on the road. Velasquez's ERA is more than a full run better here at Citizens Bank Park this season than it is when he pitches elsewhere (4.22 vs. 5.31). And the Phils are 8-3 in Velasquez's last 11 home starts. The other major positive for him tonight is the fact that he will be facing a Pirates team that is currently 20 games under .500. And as bad as Velasquez has been, RHP Mitch Keller -- who will get his seventh start of the season tonight -- has been even worse (1-2 with a 7.24 ERA). Take the Phillies. |
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08-27-19 | Dodgers -176 v. Padres | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over San Diego. Walker Buehler will get the start for L.A. tonight, and he's absolutely dominated the Padres in his career. He's made 3 starts (including one against his mound opponent, Cal Quantrill, earlier this month), and has given up just 2 runs over 22 innings (0.82 ERA). He's also struck out 31 batters in those 22 innings, while allowing just nine hits and three walks (0.54 WHIP). San Diego's a horrid 23-46 (minus 18 games on the money line) as a home underdog, while Los Angeles is 63-26 (plus 17 games on the money line) as a favorite priced -150 or higher. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-19 | Rays +171 v. Astros | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Houston Astros. This pitching match-up between RHs Charlie Morton of the Rays and Justin Verlander of the Astros has so many interesting angles to it. First, there's the fact that these two aces facing each other is something we could see in October in the post-season. Then there's the fact that Morton and Verlander were teammates in Houston the past two seasons and have a World Series ring together (2017). Finally, there's the irony that there's more pressure on Verlander as the favorite tonight because the Astros have lost each of the veteran Cy Young winner's last three starts at odds of -471, -187, and -518. We'll take Morton tonight in an underdog role, as he is enjoying another great campaign, with a 13-5 record and 2.85 ERA in 27 starts, covering 161 innings. The Rays are also 11-3 in their last 14 road games and 10-4 in Morton's last 14 road starts. Take Tampa Bay. |
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08-27-19 | Indians -148 v. Tigers | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers. Cleveland's sitting 3 1/2 games behind the first place Twins, and also just got the bad news that All Star 3B Jose Ramirez will be lost for the remainder of the year (hamate bone). So these intra-division series against losing teams are extremely important. And with starters Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco still down and out, the remaining starts from RHP Adam Plutko are also critical. Plutko goes to the mound for the 15th time this season (14th start) tonight in Detroit. He already has a win here as back on June 14, the 27-year-old threw six quality innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits with six strikeouts and one walk in a 13-4 Indians blow-out. That was his third victory of the season and he's added two more since then -- both in August. RHP Spencer Turnbull goes for the Tigers, and despite a decent ERA of 4.05, Turnbull has an ugly 3-12 record and Detroit is just 6-17 in his 23 starts (including 0-11 his last 11). Meanwhile, the Tribe is 11-4 in Plutko's last 15 starts. Take Cleveland. MLB Elite Info. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-19 | Braves -170 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Toronto Blue Jays. For this game, please only list Atlanta's starter, Mike Soroka (and not Toronto's starter). There's no question that young Braves RHP Soroka will get some serious consideration for NL Rookie of the Year. But with the recent injury to Max Scherzer, and Hyun-Jin Ryu actually losing his last start, Soroka just might also garner some backing for the Cy Young award. After all, the second year player -- who is just 22 years old -- is 10-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 23 starts covering just under 142 innings. And Soroka's HR rate of 0.5 per nine innings is the best in the league. (Some would argue that's the most important stat for a starting pitcher.) He'll get his third inter-league start of the season as the Braves will travel north of the border for the first time since last June. And it will be a "homecoming" of sorts, as Soroka is Canadian (though from western Canada). Soroka threw quality starts in each of his previous two inter-league outings against the Tigers and Twins. More importantly, Soroka has been an absolute beast on the road this season. In 10 starts in Atlanta, he is 4-2 with a 3.90 ERA. However, in 13 starts away, Soroka is an incredible 6-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Take the Braves. |
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08-26-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -124 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -124 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers were looking for a three-game home sweep of the D-Backs on Sunday, having easily won the first two games. But it didn't happen and now the Crew faces the most critical stretch of the season with the next 12 games coming against the Cubs (7), Astros (2), and Cards (3). But the good news is that nine of those 13 games are here at home, starting with the next three days. LHP Gio Gonzalez helped the Brewers win their Division and get to the NLCS last season and now the team is hoping he will do it again. It's almost September, and that's a good time of year for the 33-year-old southpaw who is 29-16 (.644) with a 3.42 ERA in 58 career games (55 starts) the last month of the season. And even though he is 3-4 in 11 career starts vs. the Cards, Gonzalez does own a very nice 3.11 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in just under 67 innings against them. The other good news is that the home team is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings of these two clubs. Take the Brewers. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -127 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Pittsburgh Pirates. There have been plenty of highs and lows for the Phillies this season. Certainly one of the lows was the just-concluded weekend series in Miami. At the worst, one would have expected the Phils to take two of three from the Fish with a sweep being a distinct possibility. But instead, Philly left south Florida with just one victory and now find itself 5 1/2 and 11 1/2 games behind the surging Nats and Braves, respectively. The good news is it's back home to face a Pirates team that isn't much -- if any -- better than the Marlins right now -- and one which it has dominated recently. LHP Jason Vargas will go in his fifth start for the Phils. Still looking for his first Philly victory, Vargas has pitched well for the most part, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 23 innings so far. (That's better than he did with the Mets before he was traded here.) Vargas is also 2-0 in six career appearances (three starts) vs. the Bucs, while Pittsburgh is 12-22 (-8 games on the money line) in its last 34 games vs. LH starters. Take the Phillies. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-25-19 | Yankees +163 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 163 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Dodgers. If you look up the term "breakout season" in the dictionary, you will likely see a picture of 2019's Domingo German. It hasn't always been pretty for the Yankees 27-year-old RH from the Dominican, but one thing you can't deny -- German knows how to win games. Despite an ERA slightly north of 4.00, German has a stellar 16-3 record in 22 games (21 starts), and the Yankees are 17-4 in his starts. And German's 16 wins are the most by any pitcher in the League. He'll go for no. 17 tonight on National TV in this rubber match in L.A. The Dodgers will counter with LHP Clayton Kershaw. Like German, Kershaw has had a very good, but injury-shortened, season, going 13-2 in 22 starts covering 143 innings. Kershaw's undefeated home record looks eerily similar to the one teammate Hyun-Jin Ryu had before Ryu took the mound here on Friday night. But the Yanks knew how to handle the southpaw Ryu and his spotless home ledger. Indeed, the Yanks are hitting .277 with a .496 SLG % vs. southpaws this season, and they're 25-14, +6 games on the money line vs. lefties. They'll look to do the same to Kershaw and his 9-0 Chavez Ravine record tonight. Take New York. MLB High Roller Winner. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-25-19 | Giants v. A's -142 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the San Francisco Giants. The Oakland A's are at it again -- taking veteran starters who appear to be washed-up and resurrecting their careers. One of the latest reclamation projects is LHP Brett Anderson. The oft-injured 31-year-old was little more than an afterthought when he signed with the A's in March of 2018 after two sign-and-release stints with the Cubs and Jays the year prior. And in fact Anderson pitched like an afterthought through most of last season, going 4-5 with a 4.48 ERA in just 17 big-league starts. But this season, it's starting to click once again for Anderson who is 10-9 with a 4.06 ERA in 25 starts. And those 25 starts represent something we haven't seen from Anderson very often -- an injury-free season. Start number 26 will come this afternoon against a team which Anderson is very familiar with from his two seasons with the Dodgers (2015-2016). The As are 15-10 in Anderson's starts this season and they are 36-17 in their last 53 home games, and 85-41, +28 games on the money line, their last 126 as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Giants are 2-5 in their last seven inter-league games vs. winning teams. Take Oakland. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-24-19 | Braves v. Mets -106 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. With all of the bad pitching going around the league these days (both starters and relievers), it's good to see an old fashioned extra-innings pitching duel for a change. The Braves and Mets played just such a game on Friday night, with the Braves finally prevailing in extra innings. They will reload tonight and again it will be with a couple of pretty good pitchers going to the mound in the Mets' RH Zach Wheeler and the Braves' LH Max Fried. Wheeler has been pretty consistent all season, although he's lowered his ERA more than a half-run since the middle of June (from a high of 4.94 to its current 4.40). But Wheeler has definitely preferred pitching here at Citi Field this season, as in 11 home starts, he is 5-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 70 2/3 innings vs. 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA in just under 79 innings on the road. The Mets are 10-2 (+7 games on the money line) in Wheeler's last 12 starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher. And they are 18-7 (+12 games on the money line) in his last 25 second-half starts. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-24-19 | Tigers v. Twins -300 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. After being mired in mediocre pitching numbers for years -- a roughly .500 record with ERAs around five runs -- Twins RH Kyle Gibson is finally having a productive campaign in his seventh season. Gibson is 11-6 (.647) with a 4.40 ERA and a career-best 2.96 K:BB ratio in 26 games (25 starts) covering 139 innings. Although Gibson's ERA is higher here at home than it is on the road, the 31-year-old has a substantially better record at Target Field (7-3) than he does when pitching elsewhere (4-3). The Tigers will go with the well-traveled RH Edwin Jackson. The 17-year veteran is in his second stint with the Tigers (he pitched for Detroit in 2009) and it's pretty clear at this point that the 35-year-old's best years are well behind him. In 11 games (eight starts) in 2019 with Toronto and Detroit, Jackson is 3-6 with an 8.46 ERA in just under 45 innings. The Twins are 22-5 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 27 as a favorite of -200 or more. Take Minnesota. |
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08-24-19 | Phillies -118 v. Marlins | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. After a promising 2018 campaign -- his third in the Majors -- in which he won 11 of 24 starts, expectations were pretty high for Phillies' RHP Zach Eflin coming into 2019. So far it's been a lost season for the 25-year-old who has managed a record of just 7-11 with a 4.57 ERA in 25 appearances (21 starts). But Eflin also knows that if he turns it around the rest of the way and helps his team get to the post-season, it will erase everything he's done up to this point. Tonight would be a great time to get started with that turnaround as Eflin faces the 46-81 Marlins for the fourth time this season. After a disastrous July (0-4 with an 11.88 ERA) Eflin was relegated to the bullpen to start August and has responded nicely. Eflin's pitched better this month and deserves another starting shot especially in light of the recent news that Jake Arrieta has been lost for the season (elbow). The Marlins won a shootout here in Miami last night, but they are still just 19-42 in their last 61 games vs. NL East opponents. Take the Phillies. |
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08-24-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -144 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Yankees. The Dodgers were blown out, 10-2, last night. And that was the first time all season they lost at home with Hyun Jin Ryu on the mound. Today, they'll look to bounce back with Tony Gonsolin getting the start opposite CC Sabathia. And we'll go against the Yankee southpaw, as Sabathia has an 11.92 ERA in his last three starts (all New York losses). Even worse for New York: it's 4-17 its last 21 as road underdogs of +150 or less, while the Dodgers are 13-1 in daytime home games, and 51-17 overall at home this season. Take the Dodgers. |
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08-23-19 | Tigers v. Twins -200 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -200 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. If the Twins are going to make a deep run in the post-season -- whether it's as a Division Champ or a Wild Card -- they will need their aces to step up. That includes RHP Jose Berrios. The 25-year-old Puerto Rican has been getting knocked around a bit in the month of August (0-1 with a 8.44 ERA in three starts). If something is going to help Berrios bounce back, then it might just be a start at home against the Tigers. In eight career games vs. Detroit (seven starts), Berrios is 4-1 in 36 innings -- although the ERA is quite high. One of those victories was earlier this season -- April 14 to be exact -- when he threw 6 2/3 quality innings, allowing just two runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and one walk in a 6-4 Twins win. And in 11 home starts this season, Berrios is 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA in just under 72 innings. The Tigers are 2-6 in the last eight meetings at Target Field and 4-12 in the last 16 meetings overall. Take the Twins against Drew VerHagen (6.67 ERA; 1.82 WHIP) and the Tigers tonight. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-23-19 | Royals v. Indians -168 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. The Indians return home after a rain-shortened loss last night in the third game of their series in Queens. They not only get TO step down in class by facing the Royals this weekend, but they also get to use a DH once again. Game 1 will feature RHPs Jakob Junis (KC) and rookie Zach Plesac. Plesac's debut season has been a success so far as the 24-year-old is 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 15 starts. He certainly shouldn't mind facing the Royals for the fourth time this season. In his three previous starts vs. KC (the most he's had against any team), Plesac is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in just under 16 innings. After a promising rookie campaign in 2017, Junis has really struggled last year and now in 2019. He went 9-12 with a 4.37 ERA in 30 starts last year and so far this season, the 26-year-old is 8-11 with a 4.78 ERA in just under 151 innings. And in five starts vs. Cleveland in 2019, Junis is 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 29 innings. Finally, the Royals are 8-25 in the last 33 meetings in Cleveland. Take the Tribe. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-19 | Rockies v. Cardinals -132 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Colorado Rockies. There's no question that Cards' RH Miles Mikolas has taken a big step backwards from his breakout season of a year ago. For one thing, Mikolas' W/L ledger of 2019 (7-13) is almost the inverse of what he did in 2018 (18-4). And his ERA is 4.30 compared to the 2.83 stat he posted last year. But despite his numbers, the Cards know that Mikolas can still contribute to their final month and playoff push, and they will keep putting him out on the mound every five or six days. Two of his three starts this month have been on the road where Mikolas has had most of his struggles this season. He's back home for start number 26 and in his last six starts here at Busch Stadium, Mikolas has been brilliant. Over that span, he has allowed just nine runs (seven earned) in 37 2/3 innings while the Cards are 4-2 in those. That's an ERA of just 1.67 over that span, which includes Mikolas' only complete game of the season, a 7-0 shutout of the Pirates on July 15. The Rox are also a poor 17-39 in the last 56 games vs. St. Louis, and 6-21 in their last 27 road games. Take the Cardinals. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Dolphins | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Miami Dolphins. The Jaguars come into this game with the worst offense, thus far, in the Preseason. The Jaguars have only mustered 10 points thru two games, while they have given up 53. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Jacksonville tonight as a small underdog vs. Miami, especially given that the Dolphins are 2-0 ATS. But consider that, since 1992, NFL teams that have scored less than 14 points in their two previous preseason games have covered the spread 69% of the time (and 80.7% if their opponent wasn't undefeated in the preseason). And 0-2 teams have covered 70% since 1983 as an underdog (or PK) vs. teams that were undefeated ATS. Take Jacksonville. NFL Preseason Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-19 | Redskins -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins over the Atlanta Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons are 0-3 SU/ATS this preseason, and come into tonight's game installed as a home underdog vs. Washington, which is 0-2 SU/ATS. We'll lay the points with the Redskins, as NFL teams (like Atlanta) have been poor in their fourth preseason game, if they were 0-3 SU/ATS in their first three games. Indeed, since 1993, they've covered just 29.7% of the time, including just 13% ATS if their opponent was off back-to-back losses itself. Take Washington. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-19 | Panthers +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over the New England Patriots. The defending Super Bowl Champs come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins over Detroit and Tennessee. But off those two victories, we'll fade New England tonight, as defending Super Bowl Champs have covered the spread just one of 11 preseason games since 1983 off back to back wins when the line was 6 points or less. And road teams (like Carolina) off upset home losses in Week 2 have covered 70% since 1983 vs. foes off upset wins. Take the Panthers + the points. NFL Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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08-22-19 | Indians +130 v. Mets | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Mets. When the Indians look back on the 2019 regular season -- especially if they don't win the AL Central -- the game from last night will be one they wish they could have back. Late Wednesday, the Tribe took a 3-2 lead in the top of the 10th inning and then put normally reliable closer Brad Hand on the mound in the bottom of the inning for what seemed like a sure save. But Hand gave it up and the Mets walked off in front of their delirious home crowd. Now Cleveland reloads with rookie RH Aaron Civale set to make his fifth start of the season. The 24-year-old has made the most of his opportunity to join the Cleveland rotation in the wake of all the pitching injuries the team has endured. Civale has done little wrong so far, posting a 1.50 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 3.67 K:BB ratio in 24 innings. The Mets will go with veteran RH Noah Syndergaard in his 25th start of the season. For whatever reason, most of Syndergaard's struggles have come here at home this season, where he has a 4.23 ERA in 12 starts (vs. 3.49 on the road). Take Cleveland in an underdog role. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-21-19 | Brewers +101 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 101 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. After two part-time seasons in the Brewers bullpen -- with a two-year gap in between -- RHP Adrian Houser was not on anyone's radar coming into 2019. But after being more-or-less forced into action as a starter due to their numerous injuries, Houser is now an important part of Milwaukee's team as it prepares for a prolonged fight for the post-season down the stretch. The 26-year-old is 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 27 games -- including 10 starts -- coming into tonight. His ability to start games as well as fill in when needed in long relief should prove valuable over the final six weeks. The Cards will go with veteran RHP Adam Wainwright, who is having a so-so season at 9-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 23 starts so far. The Brewers look to salvage the last game of this three-game series and they are 7-2 in their last nine in the third game of a series after losing each of the first two. Meanwhile, despite their back-to-back victories over the Crew, the Cards are still just 2-5 in their last seven vs. teams with a winning record. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-21-19 | Nationals -145 v. Pirates | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Pittsburgh Pirates. If the Nats' management thought that the three relief pitchers they picked up at the trade deadline -- Strickland, Elias, Hudson -- would mean the end of their bullpen woes, then they better think again. Washington's pen once again ruined a great start -- this time from Stephen Strasburg -- as the Pirates scored four runs in the 8th inning to beat the Nats, 4-1, on Tuesday. Of course, if the Nats' offense had put up anywhere close to the number of runs they'd been producing lately, then four runs wouldn't have mattered. In their previous three games, DC plated a total of 43 runs -- a club record -- before falling flat last night. They'll reload for tonight as LHP Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the 26th time this season -- his first with Washington. Corbin has been a welcome addition to the rotation, going 9-5 with a 3.34 ERA, including a complete game shutout back on May 25. In his only other start vs. the Bucs this season, Corbin threw seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball with 11 strikeouts and one walk back on April 12. Take the Nats. |
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08-21-19 | Mariners v. Rays -285 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. When Charlie Morton left one of the best teams in baseball -- the Astros -- after the best season of his career and joined the Rays via free agency, there were probably only two people who thought he could improve on 2018: Morton and his Agent. But sure enough, 26 starts into the season and Morton is 13-5 (only two wins away from his 2018 total) with a career-best (and league-leading) 2.77 ERA in 156 innings. Start number 27 will come this afternoon at home against a Mariners team that is almost 20 games under .500 (54-73). Although his record at Tropicana Field is only .500 (6-6), Morton has a sparkling 2.86 ERA here in 15 starts covering just over 94 innings. And so far this season, Morton is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 12 starts at his new home. He also won his only other start against the Mariners this season and he's 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 afternoon starts coming into today. Despite their victory here last night, the M's are just 8-26 in their last 34 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Lay the big price with Tampa. |
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08-20-19 | Brewers -109 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. There was little the Brewers' bats could do against the Cards' pitching Monday night as three St. Louis hurlers combined on a one-hitter in a 3-0 shutout. This is a huge series for both teams, but it's the Brew Crew who are feeling the pressure, now three games behind in the three-way NL Central race. Milwaukee will send LHP Gio Gonzalez to the mound for the 12th time this season. It is hoping that the veteran southpaw can recreate the magic he displayed after he came to the Brewers at the end of last August. In his five 2018 starts after the trade from the Nationals, Gonzalez went 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in just over 25 innings. Re-signed as a free agent after being released by the Yankees at the end of April, Gonzalez has been solid so far with a 2-1 record and 3.81 ERA in his 11 starts. His only other start against the Cards as a member of the Brewers -- last September -- resulted in a lopsided 12-4 Milwaukee victory. The Brew Crew is 7-1 in Gio's last eight starts vs. winning teams and 4-1 in his last five on the road. Take Milwaukee. MLB Road Warrior of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos -1 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -125 | 160 h 1 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers opened their preseason last weekend with a 17-9 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, while Denver was upset, 22-14, as a 2-point favorite at Seattle. Unfortunately for San Francisco, since 1983, teams that opened the Preseason with a win have gone 0-8-1 ATS in their next game if they played on Monday Night Football away from home, and were matched up against an opponent off a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, the Broncos are a stupendous 12-0 SU/ATS in the Preseason off an upset loss since 2002 (and 19-2-1 ATS since 1983). Lay the points with Denver. NFL Preseason Monday Night Football Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-19 | Brewers +120 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwakee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. After scoring just one run in on Friday night in DC, the Brewers exploded and plated 23 in the final two games of the series. They come into this critical series in St. Louis hoping they can continue their production at the plate. Two young righthanders with very similar numbers will face each other tonight in this NL Central Match-up. The Home team sends Dakota Hudson and his 11-6 record and 3.85 ERA to the mound while the Crew comes in with Zach Davies who is 8-5 with a 3.74 ERA in his 23 starts. In four previous career starts here, Davies has no record, but he has a solid 3.68 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just four walks in 22 innings. On the other side, Hudson has five appearances against the Brewers -- including two starts -- and he is 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA in just over 11 innings. The Brewers are 19-13 (+14 games on the money line (+43.75% ROI)) as a road underdog with Davies starting in his career. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-25-19 | A's -197 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
09-25-19 | Cubs -188 v. Pirates | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -188 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
09-25-19 | Cardinals -113 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
09-24-19 | A's -205 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -205 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
09-24-19 | Marlins v. Mets -250 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
09-24-19 | Cubs -185 v. Pirates | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -185 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
09-23-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -190 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Panthers +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 57 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -142 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
09-21-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -118 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
09-21-19 | Southern Miss v. Alabama -38.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 33 h 60 m | Show |
09-20-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -120 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane -4.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
09-19-19 | Giants v. Red Sox -170 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
09-18-19 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -170 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
09-17-19 | Phillies +173 v. Braves | Top | 5-4 | Win | 173 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
09-16-19 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -207 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals -140 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Vikings +3 v. Packers | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 57 h 15 m | Show |
09-14-19 | Northern Illinois v. Nebraska -13.5 | Top | 8-44 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show |
09-14-19 | Western Kentucky v. Louisville -8 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
09-14-19 | Akron +2 v. Central Michigan | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
09-13-19 | Rays -132 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
09-12-19 | Dodgers -213 v. Orioles | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
09-12-19 | Cubs -137 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
09-12-19 | Yankees -197 v. Tigers | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
09-11-19 | Nationals -138 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
09-11-19 | Diamondbacks -101 v. Mets | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
09-10-19 | Nationals v. Twins -145 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
09-09-19 | Cubs -134 v. Padres | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
09-09-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -217 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 86 h 14 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -223 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers -6 | Top | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 155 h 24 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Indians -162 v. Twins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Nationals -121 v. Braves | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns -5 | Top | 43-13 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 22 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +3 | Top | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 129 h 19 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 40-26 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 56 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Minnesota v. Fresno State +3.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -230 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -230 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Tigers v. A's -270 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Nevada v. Oregon -23 | Top | 6-77 | Win | 100 | 135 h 2 m | Show |
09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +4.5 | Top | 45-38 | Loss | -105 | 135 h 47 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Indians v. Twins -155 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Wyoming v. Texas State +7.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 18 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Western Kentucky +7.5 v. Florida International | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 39 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Vanderbilt +7.5 v. Purdue | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
09-07-19 | UAB v. Akron +9 | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
09-06-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +111 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 111 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -258 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
09-04-19 | White Sox v. Indians -280 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
09-04-19 | Mets +109 v. Nationals | Top | 8-4 | Win | 109 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
09-03-19 | Mets v. Nationals -129 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
09-02-19 | Mariners v. Cubs -275 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
09-02-19 | Giants v. Cardinals -173 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
09-02-19 | Mets -110 v. Nationals | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
09-01-19 | Red Sox -104 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
08-31-19 | Dodgers -141 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -141 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
08-31-19 | Georgia -21.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
08-31-19 | Mets v. Phillies -100 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
08-31-19 | Toledo +12 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
08-30-19 | Colorado State +13.5 v. Colorado | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
08-30-19 | Mets +128 v. Phillies | Top | 11-5 | Win | 128 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
08-29-19 | Rams v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 28 m | Show |
08-29-19 | Titans +3 v. Bears | Top | 19-15 | Win | 100 | 63 h 28 m | Show |
08-29-19 | Giants +2.5 v. Patriots | Top | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 63 h 59 m | Show |
08-29-19 | Cubs v. Mets -183 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -183 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
08-29-19 | UCLA +2.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 13 m | Show |
08-29-19 | A's -188 v. Royals | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
08-28-19 | Rays +190 v. Astros | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
08-28-19 | Orioles v. Nationals -390 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
08-28-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -134 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
08-27-19 | Dodgers -176 v. Padres | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
08-27-19 | Rays +171 v. Astros | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
08-27-19 | Indians -148 v. Tigers | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
08-27-19 | Braves -170 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
08-26-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -124 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -124 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -127 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
08-25-19 | Yankees +163 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 163 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
08-25-19 | Giants v. A's -142 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
08-24-19 | Braves v. Mets -106 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
08-24-19 | Tigers v. Twins -300 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
08-24-19 | Phillies -118 v. Marlins | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
08-24-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -144 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
08-23-19 | Tigers v. Twins -200 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -200 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
08-23-19 | Royals v. Indians -168 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
08-22-19 | Rockies v. Cardinals -132 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
08-22-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Dolphins | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
08-22-19 | Redskins -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
08-22-19 | Panthers +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
08-22-19 | Indians +130 v. Mets | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
08-21-19 | Brewers +101 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 101 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
08-21-19 | Nationals -145 v. Pirates | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
08-21-19 | Mariners v. Rays -285 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
08-20-19 | Brewers -109 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos -1 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -125 | 160 h 1 m | Show |
08-19-19 | Brewers +120 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |