Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-20 | Browns v. Bengals UNDER 51 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cleveland/Cincinnati game. The Cleveland Browns have played three road games this season, and have scored 6, 7 and 49 in those three games. Of course, that 49-point game was vs. the Cowboys, who are giving up 36.3 ppg, so that Browns effort must be taken with a grain of salt. Still, even with that 49-point outburst, the Browns are only averaging 20.66 ppg on the road (compared to 33.66 at home). Likewise, the Bengals have played much better defense at home this season, as they've given up just 20.5 ppg at home (compared to 29 ppg on the road). We'll look for a low-scoring game here in Cincinnati on Sunday, as the 'under' falls into 60-25 and 125-74 Totals systems of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45.5 | Top | 3-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Washington game. The Cowboys' defense has given up 39, 38, 49, 34 and 38 points in their last five games. But those five opponents all had better quarterbacks than does this Washington club. Indeed, Washington has scored just 17, 10 and 19 points over its last three games. And, outside of its first game vs. Philadelphia, where it benefited from three turnovers, it hasn't scored more than 20 points all season. I fully expect Dallas' defense to play a terrific game on Sunday, especially since it will be "stepping down in class" by playing Washington. And, for technical support, consider that teams whose games average 64+ points have gone under the total 57% when the O/U line 45 or less points. Take the UNDER. |
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10-25-20 | Steelers v. Titans -1 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans over Pittsburgh. The Steelers will be the 2nd undefeated team that the Titans have welcomed to Nashville over the past 12 days. Back on October 13, the Titans trounced the then-undefeated Bills, 42-16. Last week, the Titans also scored 42 points, so we won't step in front of this freight train here, at home. Indeed, over the last 18 years, teams off back to back 40-point outings have cashed 84% when not favored by 5+ points, if their opponent was off a SU win. And Tennessee is 20-9 ATS off back to back 30-point games. Take the Titans. Finally, the Steelers are an awful 21-44 ATS when they owned a winning record, and were playing a non-division foe on the road, but not getting more than 2 points. Take Tennessee. |
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10-25-20 | Packers v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Green Bay. The Packers looked like gangbusters through their first four games. But they laid an egg last week at Tampa Bay, and lost 38-10. Now, they'll try to rebound at Houston, which owns just one win on the season. Last week, the Texans lost a brutal game in overtime at Tennessee, 42-36. We'll fade Green Bay as, road teams have covered just 33% over the last 41 seasons after being upset on the road by 27+ points. Take Houston. |
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10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets +10.5 | Top | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Buffalo. It goes without saying that double-digit home underdogs are bad teams. Actually, really, really bad teams. But it's also true that double-digit underdogs have been one of the more reliable point spread plays in modern NFL history. Dating back to 1980, they've gone 109-89-2 (55% ATS). Last week, we saw the Eagles (+10.5) almost upset the Baltimore Ravens. And earlier this month, the Redskins covered as a 14.5-point home underdog -- also against Baltimore. This will be the 3rd double-digit home dog of 2020, and we'll take the points with the pitiful Jets, who are 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS on the season. But winless ATS teams, at Game 7 forward, have covered 64% since 1980 when installed as an underdog. Take New York + the points. |
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10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Notre Dame. Last week, the Panthers dropped their 3rd straight contest (and 2nd straight on the road), 31-19, at Miami. But they'll be back home at Heinz Field to welcome the Fighting Irish to the Steel City. This will be Notre Dame's first road game after starting the season with four straight home games. And that doesn't bode well for Brian Kelly's men, as road favorites off 3+ home games, have covered just 27.9% over the past 26 years, if they were off a win, and playing a conference foe off a loss, if that foe was off back to back road games. It's true that the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS their last five games. But this ATS losing streak has created point spread value. And Pitt falls into a 112-70 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on a 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. Additionally, the Panthers fall into an 84-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses. And they're 14-1-1 ATS off back to back losses when matched up against winning teams. Take Pitt. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-20 | Alabama v. Tennessee +22 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Alabama. Last week, the Crimson Tide won the most-anticipated game of the season, with a 41-24 victory over Georgia. But after winning that "Battle of Unbeatens," we will look for a letdown, and fade the Tide today. Indeed, over the past 41 years, at Game 5 forward, after a team won a competitively-priced match-up (with a point spread less than 10) of undefeated teams, such teams have cashed just 35.1% as road favorites vs. .500 (or better foes). Even worse, if its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our 35.1% stat moves to 15.7% ATS. With Tennessee off a blowout loss last week, we'll grab the points with the home underdog. |
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10-24-20 | Houston -14.5 v. Navy | Top | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Navy. The Middies won and covered for the 2nd straight game last weekend when they went into East Carolina to defeat the Pirates, 27-23, as a 3-point road favorite. The Cougars dropped their game last week, as they fell at home, 43-26, as a 3-point home underdog to BYU (which defeated Navy, 55-3, earlier this season). Houston plays this game with revenge from a 15-point defeat at home last season to the Midshipmen. The good news for Dana Holgorsen's men is that they're 20-11-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 16 points (or PK). And they're 50-28-1 ATS, overall, when playing with revenge. Navy also falls into negative 77-126 and 64-113 ATS systems of mine that play against certain teams off conference wins. Finally, the Midshipmen are an awful 3-27 SU and 8-21-1 ATS as home underdogs of more than 7 points, and 11-27 ATS at home off back to back wins. Lay the points with Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-20 | Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest +11 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Virginia Tech. We played on the Hokies last weekend, and were rewarded with a 40-14 blowout win over Boston College. The Hokies are now 2-0 ATS at home, but 0-2 ATS away from Blacksburg. That doesn't bode well for them on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem. After all, the Demon Deacons are 3-0 ATS at home this season (and 0-1 ATS on the road). Wake Forest has also been piling up the points, as it's scored 42, 66, and 40 in its last three games. Faithful followers know I love to play on home underdogs that can score, and especially if they're good teams. And Wake certainly fits the bill. Indeed, over the past 41 years, home underdogs off back-to-back wins, that average at least 40 points on offense, have covered 65% when getting more than 6 points. Grab the points with the Demon Deacons. |
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10-24-20 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma State -2.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Iowa State. The Cowboys went into Lawrence three weeks ago and demolished Kansas, 47-7 to move to 3-0 on the season. Last week, their scheduled game was scrapped due to Baylor's rash of positive COVID-19 tests, so they've had a lot of time to rest and prepare for this game. Okie State's defense has been solid, as it's yet to surrender 14 points in a game. And the Cowboys also fall into 109-45, 275-189 and 133-96 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 133-96 ATS angle. What we want to do is play on any rested home team in conference games off a double-digit conference road win. That bodes well for the Cowboys in Stillwater, on Saturday. As does the fact that they're 22-6 ATS after scoring 47+ points, if they weren't favored by more than 3 points in their current game. Take the Cowboys. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-20 | Oklahoma v. TCU +7 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma. The Sooners finally covered the point spread in a Big 12 Conference game. But it took an overtime session to put them over the top, 53-45, as a 3-point favorite vs. Texas. The Sooners have covered just five of their last 18 conference games, including one of seven on an opponent's home field. That doesn't bode well for Lincoln Riley's troops on Saturday. Nor does the fact that TCU has covered 14 of 22 as an underdog here in Fort Worth, including a perfect 5-0 if the Horned Frogs owned a losing record. The Horned Frogs had last week off following their upset home loss to Kansas State, as an 11-point favorite. And they're 17-4 ATS at home when playing with rest, including 7-0 ATS off a loss. Finally, over the past 41 seasons, rested home underdogs have cashed 71% off a straight-up loss as a favorite of 9 (or more) points. Take TCU + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total. When looking at who has the upper hand in the starting pitching match-up tonight, we're probably splitting hairs. The Dodgers' Walker Buehler has a 1.89 ERA in four playoff starts covering 19 innings while the Rays' Charlie Morton has an even more ridiculous 0.57 ERA in his three post-season starts so far (one against the Yankees and two vs. the Astros). Now put these two together on the same night in a pitchers' park such as Globe Life Field and the runs could truly be scarce. There have been a lot of interesting stats in this postseason, but perhaps none more mind-boggling than the fact that the Rays are in this World Series despite only batting .213 as a team in 16 playoff games. But when you look at the number of their games that have gone under the total, those numbers start to make more sense. In Tampa's last six games following a victory, the under is 5-1 and in its last seven vs. a RH starter, the under is 6-1. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have gone 'under' in nine of Buehler's last 10 starts, while 15 of Morton's last 19 starts (including the last five in a row) have gone 'under.' This will be a low-scoring contest. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-21-20 | Rays +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 140 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers took Game 1 behind some solid starting pitching from LH ace Clayton Kershaw and a bunch of timely hitting by just about everyone in the lineup. That's the good news for L.A. The not-so-good news is that Tampa has its LH ace -- Blake Snell -- ready to go tonight while Los Angeles has...Tony Gonsolin. Advantage Tampa. Snell will be making his first-ever World Series start. But he will be up to the task, as the former Cy Young Award Winner went 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 3.50 K:BB ratio in 11 regular season starts, covering 50 innings. And while those numbers may not match his 2018 Cy Young campaign, Snell definitely showed that he's back. In his career, Snell is 8-4 with a 2.07 ERA in 16 inter-league starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -169 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Tampa Bay Rays. The World Series is set as the Rays and Dodgers prepare to face for their first-ever post-season clash. This finals will look more like traditional seven-game series than the Championship Series did as it will follow a 2-3-2 format with one-day breaks after Games 2 and 5. Game 1 will start with RH Tyler Glasnow opposite LH Clayton Kershaw. After a very strong regular season, Glasnow has struggled a bit in the playoffs. Over four starts, Glasnow has a winning record at 2-1, but his ERA is a bit ugly at 4.66. In 13 1/3 innings, he's allowed 11 hits and seven walks, for a WHIP of 1.35. And Glasnow will have his hands full with a very good Dodgers line-up. This will be his first-ever start vs. L.A. However, in three previous relief appearances vs. the Dodgers, Glasnow has allowed six runs in four innings with five hits and four walks -- a 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kershaw has started twice against the Rays in his career, and won each start (1.88 career ERA; 0.83 WHIP). Last season, he struck out eight Rays over 6 1-3 innings, and allowed just seven baserunners and two runs. The Dodgers are 121-46 (+28 games on the moneyline) as a favorite priced -150 (or higher). And Tampa is a pedestrian 11-10 this season (minus 5 games on the moneyline) vs. lefty starters. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys are 2-3 this season, but have yet to cover the point spread in any of their five games. And, to make matters worse, they'll be without QB Dak Prescott for the rest of the season after he sustained a severe ankle injury in last week's 37-34 win over the NY Giants. But if there's good news for Mike McCarthy's team, it's that they have a veteran backup QB in Andy Dalton. And they play in the worst division in football, so they still should make the Playoffs -- even if they end up with a losing record. Tonight, they'll welcome the 3-2 Arizona Cardinals to AT&T Stadium. But Arizona's 3-2 record has largely come against the dregs of the league, as two of its three wins were against the 1-4 Washington Football Team and the 0-5 NY Jets. We'll take Dallas as NFL teams on 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have gone 98-49 ATS against non-division foes, provided our team wasn't favored by 3 or more points. Even better: this will be Arizona's 3rd straight road game, while Dallas hasn't had to travel in over 3 weeks, as this will be the Cowboys' 3rd straight home game. Since 1980, NFL teams playing their 3rd straight on the road have covered just 9 of 30 games vs. foes playing their 3rd straight at home! Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 55.5 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals to go Under the total. The Cowboys' defense has been a sieve thus far, as it's given up 36 points per game. They've now played their last four games 'over' the total, which has led to an overwhelming majority of the tickets being written on the 'over,' and this number jumping a couple of points from the opener. Certainly, as can be seen by the betting data, the knee-jerk reaction is to play a Cowboys game to go 'over' the total. But consider that NFL teams that give up more than 28 ppg on defense, and have played their previous 4 games 'over' the total, have actually gone UNDER the total 72.5% of the time (29-11). And teams playing on Monday Night Football have gone 9-0 UNDER if the line was at least 50 points, and none of their three previous games went under the total. Take the Cowboys and Cardinals UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Kansas City. Last Tuesday, we played against Josh Allen & Co., and were rewarded with a blowout win by underdog Tennessee, 42-16. But off that blowout loss -- a game Buffalo failed to cover by 29 points -- we'll take the Bills to bounce back on Monday. Indeed, NFL teams have gone 98-52-5 ATS in non-division games after failing to cover the point spread by more than 24 points, provided they weren't favored by more than 3 points. That bodes well for Buffy this evening. As does the fact that the Bills are 29-15 ATS at home off a straight-up loss, when the Bills owned a winning record. Finally, defending Super Bowl champs are 0-8 ATS as road favorites of -4 (or more) points vs. winning opponents, if their opponent failed to cover the spread by 7+ points in its previous game. Take the Bills + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams. Last week, the Niners were embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins, 43-17, as an 8-point favorite. It's not often that an NFL team -- much less, a defending Conference champion -- fails to cover the point spread by 34 points. But that's exactly what San Francisco did last week. We'll look for San Francisco to bounce back on Sunday night, as .350 (or better) home underdogs have covered 62% since 1980 off an upset loss by more than 10 points. Take the Niners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Braves +122 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. A few days ago, it didn't appear that either of the League Championships would go to seven games. But here we are with the Braves and Dodgers about to play the ultimate rubber game, while the Astros and Rays did the same last night. I think it's safe to say that no post-season starter has been as hot as Braves rookie RH Ian Anderson. Most people had never even heard of the 22-year-old at the start of the season, but now Anderson is on the biggest stage which baseball has, with a chance to get the Braves into the World Series. Anderson's numbers of late have been mind-boggling. In three post-season starts, covering 15 2/3 innings, Anderson has yet to allow a run. He's surrendered just six hits, with 22 strikeouts, while going 2-0. He did issue five bases on balls against the Dodgers in Game 2 of this series, but it didn't matter as Anderson allowed just one hit over four innings. If the Dodgers can't do what no other team has yet been able to -- solve Anderson and his fastball/change-up combination -- then they will once again fall short of winning their first title since 1988. Take the Braves as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers 'under' the total. This series has featured strong pitching, for the most part, but that's not the entire story. It's also been a showcase for great defense, as we saw again on Saturday in Game 6 when Mookie Betts made a leaping catch at the top of the wall against Marcell Ozuna. That superb defensive play in the fifth inning preserve the Dodgers lead and helped force this seventh game. The pitching should be on display again tonight when rookie Ian Anderson take the mound for Atlanta. The 22-year-old has yet to allow a run in 15 2/3 post-season innings, so the Braves will try to ride those numbers to their first World Series since 1999. Perhaps the best news for the Dodgers in Game 6 was the performance by veteran reliever Kenley Jansen, who pitched a perfect ninth inning to seal the deal for Los Angeles. Dodgers relievers have now allowed just two runs in 10 innings in the last two games. It will be an "all hands on deck" game for the Dodgers, who have yet to announce a starter (but we will take the 'under' regardless of which pitcher takes the mound in the 1st inning for L.A.) Manager Dave Roberts has expressed that Tony Gonsolin will work several innings. But he'll be joined by guys like Julio Urias, Brusdar Graterol, and perhaps even Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers have gone 'under' 74-55 when they've faced an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or better. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Green Bay Packers. The Bucs lost their last game as a road favorite at Chicago, and will look to bounce back against the undefeated Packers. We'll take Tom Brady & Co. as, Brady's teams have gone 12-0 ATS as an underdog (or PK) off a loss. Also, over the last 41 years, winning teams have covered 64% as home underdogs off an upset loss as a road favorite the previous week. Take Tampa Bay. |
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10-18-20 | Jets +10 v. Dolphins | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -124 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami. On the surface, we have two teams going in opposite directions. The Jets are 0-5 SU and ATS, and have lost each of their games by 9+ points. Meanwhile, the Dolphins come into this game off an impressive 43-17 upset of San Francisco, and have covered three of their last four games. However, Miami was an underdog in each of its five games this year, and now it's laying more than a touchdown. That doesn't bode well for Miami, as it's covered just 36 of 105 at home when not getting more than 3 points! And when laying more than 5 points, Miami's covered just 2 of its last 24 at home! Even better: winless teams, off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, have covered 60% over the last 41 years as road underdogs of more than 8 points. Take New York + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Ravens v. Eagles +10 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Baltimore. The Eagles return home on Sunday after back-to-back road games vs. the 49ers and Steelers. Philly will welcome the Ravens, who blew out Cincy last week, 27-3. Baltimore's been installed as a huge road favorite, but the number is inflated, per my models. One of the things I love to do is play on big home underdogs off back to back road games, and especially if they're playing an opponent off a home game, provided that opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss. Since 1980, our big home dogs (of more than 9 points) have covered 86.2% of the time (25-4 ATS). That bodes well for Philadelphia on Sunday. As does the fact that the Ravens have covered just nine of their last 33 road games off a win by more than 18 points. Take the Eagles + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Texans +4 v. Titans | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Tennessee Titans. The Texans kicked off the Romeo Crennel era with an easy 16-point win, 30-14, over Jacksonville. They'll try to make it two-division-wins-in-a-row on Sunday when they visit Nashville to take on the Titans. Houston will have a scheduling advantage for this game, as Tennessee was forced to play this past Tuesday, so the Titans will be playing with two days less rest. Even worse for Tennessee: it's a nightmarish 8-38 ATS at home when favored by more than three points vs. an opponent off a SU win, including 0-6 ATS if the Titans were off an upset win. And it's 5-21 ATS off an upset win, when it wasn't getting 4+ points in its current game. Finally, Tennessee has covered just seven of its last 23 vs. Houston, including 1-7 ATS when the Texans were playing with revenge. Grab the points with Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Bears v. Panthers -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over Chicago. The Bears upset Tom Brady and the Bucs, 20-19, as a 3.5-point home underdog 10 days ago, and are 4-1 on the season. Meanwhile, the Panthers are a surprising 3-2 on the heels of a 3-game SU/ATS win streak. And all three wins were of the upset variety. This will be the first time this season that Carolina wasn't an underdog. Oftentimes, I will avoid playing on such teams that are unaccustomed to laying points. But I will make an exception here, given that it's a short number. Additionally, .666 (or better) NFL teams (like Chicago) have cashed just 39% over the past 41 years as a road underdog (or PK) off an upset win as a 3.5-point (or greater) home underdog. Finally, the Bears are a horrible 2-12 ATS off an upset win, including 0-7 ATS on the road. In contrast, the Panthers are 18-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 9-0 ATS their last nine. Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Bengals +8 v. Colts | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Indianapolis. The Bengals have won just once, but have been extremely competitive this season, as they've lost just one of their five games by more than five points. But that was last week's 27-3 defeat at Baltimore, which ranks among the four best teams in the NFL. This week, the Bengals will take on the Colts who have sprinted out to a 3-2 record. But two of Indianapolis' three wins were against 1-4 Minnesota (28-11) and 0-5 New York Jets (36-7). So, Indianapolis' scoring margin of +7.6 should be taken with a grain (or, maybe, boulder) of salt. I expect the Bengals to once again be competitive, as they fall into several of my very best systems that play on certain teams off blowout losses. Those angles have records of 113-36, 133-57 and 148-68 ATS. Even better: NFL road teams that scored 3 or less points the previous week have gone 80-42-3 ATS vs. .650 (or worse) foes, if our road team wasn't getting 10+ points! And the Bengals are 24-7 ATS on the road as an underdog vs. .650 (or worse) opponents. Take the Bengals + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Falcons +4 v. Vikings | Top | 40-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Minnesota. The Falcons are winless on the season, and will have a new coach (Raheem Morris) following the dismissal of Dan Quinn. They hope to do what the previously-winless Houston Texans did last week following the firing of Bill O'Brien, and win their first game for their new head coach. Atlanta will be in Minnesota to take on the equally-disappointing (1-4) Minnesota Vikings. And, when it comes to betting on bad NFL teams, I would much rather take points than lay points with such clubs. Indeed, NFL home favorites with a .200 (or worse) win percentage (at Game 4 forward), have covered just 110 of 245 games, including a soft 61-90 ATS vs. non-division foes. Additionally, Atlanta falls into 158-76 and 110-61 ATS systems of mine that play on certain bad teams. Take the Falcons + the points. |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns to go 'under' the total. The posted total for this game is the biggest number in the history of the series. Indeed, until this game, the highest over/under number for this rivalry was 47.5. Last season, these two teams played extremely low-scoring games (21-7, 20-13) that each went 'under' the total. But this year -- so far -- the two teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs. Pittsburgh's last three games have gone 'over' the number (26-21, 28-21, 38-29), while Cleveland's last four have gone 'over' (35-30, 34-20, 49-38, 32-23). However, since 1980, NFL games with over/under lines less than 56 have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time (86-58-6) if both teams played their two previous games 'over,' and each of those games generated more than 47 points. Additionally, the Steelers have gone 'under' 8 straight times after playing a game with 50+ points scored, while Cleveland is 13-4 'under' after a game that produced 50+ points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-20 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech -12 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Boston College. After blowing out the NC State Wolfpack, 45-24, in Blacksburg to open the 2020 season, the Hokies had back-to-back point spread setbacks on the road, including a 56-45 loss at North Carolina last week. But Justin Fuente's men are at home tonight, so that bodes well for them to rebound with a win and cover. And they'll no doubt be intent on avenging the last two seasons' losses to the Eagles. Also in the Hokies' favor: they're starting to get back many players who missed their earlier games due to the coronavirus. One such player is QB Hendon Hooker, who will make his first start of the season tonight (after seeing action in the 2nd half last week in Chapel Hill). The Hokies are 61-33-1 ATS against opponents off a win, if the Hokies had a losing point spread record. And they're also 12-3 ATS off a loss, if they were playing with double revenge. Take Virginia Tech minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-20 | North Carolina v. Florida State +13.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over North Carolina. Last Saturday, the Seminoles lost their 3rd straight game to a Bowl subdivision team. But if there was a silver lining, it was that Florida State covered the point spread for the first time this season. A key personnel change last week was the insertion of redshirt sophomore QB Jordan Travis into the starting lineup. The Louisville transfer played well, and will be back under center to start this ACC Conference game. Tonight, they'll welcome the #5-ranked Tar Heels to Tallahassee. And this is brand new territory for North Carolina as none of its players were alive the last time it was ranked among the Top 5. It played just one other road game this season, and it was a struggle, as the Heels won by just four points, 26-22, as a 14.5-point road favorite at Boston College. North Carolina is a money-burning 17-32-1 ATS on the conference road off a SU/ATS win, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Florida St. is 40-20 ATS off a road defeat. The Seminoles also fall into 100-35 and 82-22 ATS systems of mine. Take Florida State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-20 | Braves +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a bullpen game on Friday that was won by the Dodgers, we're back to the top of the rotations for both of these teams. And while RH starter Walker Buehler has been very good for L.A., LH Max Fried has been on another level for Atlanta. After a regular season in which he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, Fried has continued to be one of the MVPs for the Braves in the post-season. Even though he stumbled in a start vs. the Marlins, the Braves have still won all three of his 2020 playoff outings coming into this afternoon, including Game 1 of this series opposite Buehler. In that start, the 26-year-old Atlanta ace did everything except register the victory, allowing just one run on four hits in six innings with nine strikeouts. The Braves won that one with four runs in the top of the ninth. Dating back to the 2019 All-Star Break, the Braves are 23-3 in Fried's last 26 starts, including a perfect 4-0 as an underdog! Fried goes on regular (4 days) rest this afternoon, and he is a stellar 13-4 (.765) in 23 starts in those situations. Take the Braves as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +5.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A/M. The Aggies stunned the Florida Gators in College Station last Saturday when they won outright, 41-38, as a 5.5-point home underdog. But off that big upset win, we'll fade Jimbo Fisher's men on the SEC road this Saturday. They'll be in Starkville to take on the Bulldogs, who will play with revenge from a 49-30 defeat last season to the Aggies. Last week, Mississippi State lost to Kentucky, 24-2, as a 3-point underdog. Turnovers were once again the culprit, as Miss State lost the ball six times to Kentucky. And, for the season, Miss State has committed 14 turnovers to its opponents' five. The number one goal, then, for Mike Leach's troops on Saturday will be to "hold onto the damn ball." Texas A/M is a poor 37-55-1 ATS on the road off a home win, while revenge-minded home underdogs are a super 102-62-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off an upset home win. Take Mississippi State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-20 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3 | Top | 49-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida. To say that the Tigers have "revenge" would be a massive understatement. Indeed, the Tigers have lost the last 13 meetings to UCF, including regular and post-season meetings in both 2017 and 2018. After not playing at all last season, they've been champing at the bit to avenge those losses, and will finally get the chance this afternoon. We will fade the favored Knights, who come into this game off a bad upset loss to Tulsa. Central Florida was favored by 20.5 points in that game, but fell by eight, 34-26. Unfortunately for UCF, College Football teams off an upset loss where they were favored by 18+ points, have rebounded to cover just 48 of 132 games when they were favored by 25 points or less. Like the Knights, the Tigers also come into this game off a loss, 30-27, as a 1.5-point road underdog at SMU. The good news, though, for Memphis is that it's 38-21 ATS off a loss, if it wasn't an underdog of 3+ points in that defeat. Take Memphis + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-20 | Texas State +3.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over South Alabama. The Jaguars were big underdogs in each of their first three games, and went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. But here, South Alabama will be a favorite for the first time this season. Unfortunately, the Jaguars have been horrid as a favorite over the years. Indeed, South Alabama is 1-12-1 ATS its last 14 when laying 2 or more points (and 3-17-1 ATS when not getting more than 5 points). That doesn't bode well for South Alabama on Saturday. Nor does the fact that Sun Belt favorites of 6 or less points are an awful 71-109-2 ATS at home, or on neutral fields. Finally, the Bobcats fall into 99-34, 160-82 and 397-285 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in conference games that lost SU the previous week. Take Texas State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total. After Thursday night's bullpen game, the question for tonight is, "who's going to be left to pitch after the starters are done?" Everyone knows that the days of Bob Gibson are over. And most starters today would be lucky to get six innings in. So even if Blake Snell (3.24 ERA; 1.20 WHIP) and Framber Valdez (3.57 ERA; 1.11 WHIP) pitch well tonight, they likely will leave the game with at least three or four more innings to go. That's when the managerial strategy will be more difficult. These two teams used a total of 11 relievers on Thursday, so 24 hours later it will be very interesting to see how they handle things when the two starters come out. One thing's for certain -- the offenses may have a field day tonight in light of the situation. The over was 9-5 in Snell's 14 starts (regular season plus playoffs) this season, while Houston has gone 'over' the total 60-37 vs. a starting AL pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +6.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
At 6 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over SMU. We played on the Mustangs in their last game, and were rewarded with a 30-27 victory against the Memphis Tigers. But that was a massive emotional game for SMU, as they were at home, and playing with revenge from six straight defeats to the Tigers. Here, the shoe is on the other foot, as it's Tulane which is at home, and playing with revenge from five straight losses to SMU. The Mustangs are a horrid 8-24 ATS their last 32 road conference games after a home conference win, including 0-10 ATS if SMU owned a win percentage of .666 (or better). And Tulane falls into a 36-4 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home (or neutral-sited) underdogs off a loss against opponents off a win. Take Tulane. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves +201 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 201 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yesterday, we had our 5* Baseball Game of the Year on the Dodgers. And, for faithful followers, it wasn't much of a surprise, given I tabbed the Dodgers as my preseason pick (at 4-1 odds) to win the World Series. But just because I picked Los Angeles to win the World Series doesn't mean I will blindly take them every game (although I did take my preseason NHL pick -- the Tampa Bay Lightning -- in all 22 of their Playoff games this past season, and that worked out perfectly). But my confidence level on the Lightning was off the charts, and I don't have the same level of confidence with this Dodgers club. Certainly, they're the best team. But the Braves, Tampa Bay Rays and, yes, even the 35-35 Houston Astros, are good enough to win the World Series. If you're the Braves, you have no choice but to act like Wednesday's Game 3 never happened. And for those who saw the first inning, it was likely something which will not be seen again, as LA set an MLB post-season record by scoring 11 runs in the top of the 1st inning to put the game out of reach soon after the National Anthem had concluded. So, a case of amnesia is really the only way for Atlanta to plow forward. And tonight it will go with another one of its "young guns" in 22-year-old RHP Bryse Wilson. In his three seasons in the Majors, Wilson has split his pitching time almost evenly between starting and relieving but he has done by far his best work as a starter. In seven starts covering 30 2/3 innings, Wilson is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA (vs. 9.75 in eight relief appearances). Despite their big win on Wednesday, the Dodgers are still just 1-4 in their last five games vs. NL East teams. And Kershaw's post-season record is pedestrian-at-best (11-11, 4.23 ERA, 34 appearances), including a 3-5 record, with a 4.61 ERA, in 13 National League Championship Series appearances. Atlanta has enough offensive talent to win on any day, and surely against an injury-hampered Kershaw. We'll take the Braves as a massive underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros +132 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 132 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. After starting two pitchers with a combined nine post-season starts between them in Games 1 and 2 of this series (McCullers Jr. and Urquidy), the Astros will turn to a veteran pitcher with double that number. 36-year-old Zack Greinke has 18 career post-season starts and, although his playoff numbers don't exactly jump off the page at you, there's nobody Houston would rather have on the hill being down 3-0 in this series. Greinke is a 200+ game winner with a career ERA of 3.37. And although his best years may be behind him, the veteran just knows how to win. The Rays will go with RHP Tyler Glasnow who started the Game 5 victory against the Yankees last Friday. But with no off days in these series, Glasnow will be going on four days of rest and he is 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA in 17 starts with four days off (vs. 9-4, with a 3.27 ERA, in 21 starts with five days off). The Astros are also 10-4 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their two previous games. Take Houston as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers come into tonight's Sun Belt Conference game off a 52-23 upset win over Arkansas St. But off that upset win, we will fade Coastal Carolina tonight, as Sun Belt teams are an awful 8-30 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points in conference games, if they're off an upset win, and their opponent is also off a straight-up win. Even worse, the Chanticleers fall into negative 27-77 and 111-200 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins. Finally, Coastal Carolina has covered just 30.7% of the time as an underdog of more than 7 points, while the Cajuns are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS their last nine when priced from -6 to -14 points. Take Lafayette. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves took a 2-0 series lead over the Dodgers on Tuesday behind the other-worldly pitching of their rookie, Ian Anderson. That's the headline. But the rest of the story is that L.A. came back from a 7-0 deficit and had the winning run 90 feet away in the bottom of the ninth. And that ability to finally put some significant runs on the board could set the tone going forward. The Dodgers will put LHP Julio Urias on the mound tonight and you could argue that the 23-year-old Mexican has been their most effective playoff pitcher so far. In two appearances (one vs. the Brewers and one vs. the Padres) Urias has yet to allow an earned run in eight innings, surrendering just four hits with 11 strikeouts and one walk. The Braves' RHP Kyle Wright has also not allowed a run so far in the playoffs, although his one appearance was against the Marlins so this will be a much tougher spot for the 25-year-old. And in the regular season, Wright was 2-4, with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Even worse, his career ERA is 6.22, with a 1.66 WHIP. So, his six scoreless innings vs. Miami last week were somewhat of an anomaly when you look at his entire career, or even just his 2020 season. The Dodgers are 14-5 in their last 19 games following a loss, and 100% perfect (4-0) this season off back-to-back losses. Meanwhile, the Braves under-performed on offense vs. lefty starters this season, as they averaged just 4.5 runs, and hit just .238 (compared to 5.9 runs per game, and .269 vs. righty starters). Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-20 | Rays v. Astros +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. Game 2 of the ALCS was another close pitching duel for the most part, but once again the Rays were victorious. The relief pitching of the Rays came through, even though Nick Anderson loaded the bases with Astros in the ninth inning for a little drama. With their backs against the wall, the 'Stros will turn to 25-year-old Jose Urquidy for Game 3 tonight. The Mexican RH missed over a month of the regular season with an injury. But once he was activated on September 5, Urquidy was very effective, posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over five starts covering just under 30 innings. If he can keep the 'Stros in this series tonight then they know they have veteran Zack Greinke waiting in the wings for Game 4. Once again the 'Stros are a slight underdog in this game, but that's okay as they are 8-2 in their last 10 post-season games as a dog. Houston will be the home team tonight and Tampa is also 1-6 in the last seven meetings as the visitors. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills. The Titans had 0 new infections today, so the NFL has given the green light for this rare Tuesday night game. Tennessee comes into this game with a 3-0 record after not playing last week due to the outbreak of infections. It will be missing several key players, including WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, so I expect a heavy dose of RB Derrick Henry tonight. Because of its hampered roster, the undefeated Titans have been installed as a home underdog vs. the similarly-unbeated Bills. We'll grab the points with Tennessee, as rested home underdogs, with a .636 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 75 percent over the past 25 years. Even better: Tennessee is playing with revenge from a loss to the Bills last season. And revenge-minded home underdogs have cashed 70% over the last 41 seasons vs. non-division foes, if our home dog had a winning record both in the previous and current seasons. Take Tennessee + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-20 | Astros +123 v. Rays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. If Game 1 was any indication, this is going to be one heck of a series. The Rays took a 2-1 victory Sunday night in a game that was dominated by pitching. After an outstanding performance by LH Framber Valdez, the 'Stros will turn to RH Lance McCullers this afternoon, With the Rays having used normal #2 starter Tyler Glasnow on Friday against New York, they will turn to veteran RH Charlie Morton today. After back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2018 and 2019, Morton struggled through much of this shortened 2020 season, going just 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.4 WHIP in nine starts covering 38 innings. Morton has post-season experience with the club the Rays are facing today. Unfortunately, Morton has struggled against his former team, with a 4-6 record, and a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts, covering 57 1/3 innings. The other problem for Morton is that, although for his career he is 74-55 (.574) with a 3.78 ERA under the lights, he is just 19-34 (.358) with a 4.84 number in daytime starts. Meanwhile, the Astros are 85-43 (+13 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Miami. After covering the point spread in Game 1, the Lakers have failed to cover the spread in each of the four next games. On Sunday, the Lakers will attempt (for the 2nd time) to win their 17th NBA championship. In Game 5, Anthony Davis re-aggravated a heel injury, but he swears he will be fine for Game 6. One of the things I love to do when betting on the NBA is play on .710 (or better) teams off an upset playoff loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite, provided they don't trail in a 7-game series. Since 1990, these teams have rebounded to cash 61% ATS. Even better: the Lakers are a solid 16-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points. Meanwhile, LeBron James' teams are 22-11 ATS in the Playoffs as a favorite following a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. And Miami's 4-9 ATS in the Playoffs when playing on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak. Lay the points in Game 6 with the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 54 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys game. The New York Giants have scored 9, 9, 13, and 16 points in their four games this season. And three of the four have gone 'under' the total, with the lone game (NYG/SF) going 'over' the total by a single point. But because of the propensity of the Cowboys to play high-scoring games (three of Dallas' four games have gone 'over'), the number for this game is the highest on a New York Giants game in almost two years, and the 2nd-highest in over 12 years. We'll play on this game to go 'under,' as in the past 41 years, teams that have given up more than 31 points in each of their three previous games have gone 'under' the total 62.1% of the time. And the 'under' also falls into 32-15, 69-43, 86-44, 61-28 and 84-41 Totals systems of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns -1 | Top | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts come into Cleveland off three straight wins and covers, on the heels of a staunch defense which has allowed just 29 points combined in those three games. But those three victories included home games against the 0-4 Jets and 1-3 Vikings. This will be a much more difficult test for the Colts, given that Cleveland has scored 35, 34 and 49 points in its last three outings. We'll play against the Colts, as unrested NFL road teams off 3 straight covers are a dreadful 0-13-1 ATS vs. .750 (or better) foes off a SU/ATS win. And NFL home teams have cashed 78% since 1980 after scoring 80+ points in their two previous games, provided that they are not laying more than four points. And home teams have also cashed 64.8% since 2001 after scoring more than 48 points in their previous game. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-20 | Dolphins v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 43-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Miami. We played against the 49ers last Sunday, and cashed the Philadelphia Eagles as our Sunday Night Football Game of the Month. The Niners were 8-point favorites in that game, but lost, 25-20. If there was a silver lining for the 49ers, it's that they outgained the Eagles in yardage, 417 to 267. But three turnovers by 2nd-string QB, Nick Mullens, doomed them. San Francisco, though, will get its #1 QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, back for this game (he missed last week with an ankle injury). The Niners are a fantastic 60-23 ATS off an upset loss, if they were favored by 3+ points in that defeat, including 29-5 ATS vs. foes off an ATS defeat. San Francisco is 8-2-1 ATS its last 11 vs. the Dolphins, including 4-0 ATS when favored by 3+ points. Take the 49ers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-20 | Cardinals v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Arizona. The Cardinals come into this game off back to back upset losses, after starting the season with wins over the 49ers and Redskins. They'll look to get back on the winning track vs. the winless NY Jets. Unfortunately, .500 (or better) teams off back-to-back upset losses, have cashed just 18 of 68 road games when not getting more than 2 points. Yikes! The Flyboys are 26-9 ATS at home off a home loss, including 11-1 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +10 points. Take the New York Jets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Carolina Panthers. Atlanta's 0-4 on the season, with losses to Seattle, Dallas, Chicago and Green Bay (all good teams), while Carolina is 2-2 on the season, but has played the much easier schedule, with games vs. Las Vegas (L), Tampa Bay (L), LA Chargers (W) and Arizona (W). We'll take the Falcons to break into the win column, as winless teams, with an 0-4 (or worse) record, have cashed 65% over the last 29 years when not getting 3+ points against foes off a straight-up win. Additionally, teams (like Carolina) off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 56 of 140 games when matched up against opponents off back-to-back losses. Take the Falcons. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-20 | Mississippi State +3 v. Kentucky | Top | 2-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Kentucky. The Bulldogs opened their season with an impressive 44-34 upset win (as a 14.5-point underdog) at LSU -- a game in which QB K.J. Costello threw for an SEC-record 623 yards (and five touchdowns). Understandably, the Bulldogs suffered a letdown last week when they fell at home to Arkansas, as a 16.5-point favorite. But off that upset defeat, we'll grab the points with Miss State against the Wildcats, who are 0-2 SU/ATS this season. Kentucky's never been reliable as a home favorite vs. SEC rivals, as they've covered just 13 of 35. And Mississippi State also falls into a 99-50 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses, if they were favored by 13+ points in that upset defeat. Finally, SEC Conference teams have gone 122-85 ATS away from home off an upset loss. Take the Bulldogs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-20 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky +7 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Marshall. Three weeks ago, we played on Marshall as a home underdog vs. Appalachian State, and were rewarded with a 17-7 upset victory. The Thundering Herd didn't play either of the last two weekends, but are back in action tonight, at Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers finally got into the win column last Saturday with a three-point win at Middle Tennessee, though they failed to cover the 7-point spread. For the season, WKU is 0-3 ATS. But we'll take the points with the Hilltoppers tonight, as home underdogs (or PK) off an ATS loss have covered the spread 83% of the time over the last 41 years vs. undefeated conference foes off an upset win. Moreover, Marshall is 22-38 ATS as a road favorite, including 0-6 ATS off an upset win. Take Western Kentucky. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia -7 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over North Carolina State. Last week, Virginia fell to #1-ranked Clemson, 41-23, while the Wolfpack upset then-No. 24-ranked-Pittsburgh, 30-29, as a 14-point underdog. They'll now look to avoid a letdown. But they'll be playing their 3rd straight road game. And the Cavaliers have not lost at home in their last nine at Charlottesville. We'll play against the Wolfpack, as NCAA teams off upset wins as a double-digit underdog, have covered just 30.7% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss. Even better: when playing without rest, NC State has covered just six of its last 37 on the road in competitively-priced games with a point spread less than 8 points, including 0 for its last 9. Finally, the Cavs fall into 81-21 and 99-34 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off double-digit road losses. Lay the points with UVa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
At 9 pm, in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. We stayed away from Game 4, and it went right down to the wire, with Tyler Herro draining a 3-pointer at the buzzer to cover the 7.5-point spread for Miami. We'll step in and take the points in this "do-or-die" game for Miami, as it falls into a 59-33 ATS NBA system of mine. What we want to do is play on any .576 (or better) team in the Playoffs if they were off a loss, and an underdog of +7 (or more) points. Since 1990, these teams have gone 77-49-2, 61.1% ATS, including 10-4 ATS in the NBA Finals. Even better: Erik Spoelstra's men are 32-11-1 ATS off a loss, including 5-0 ATS when getting 6 or more points. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-20 | Braves v. Marlins +130 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Atlanta Braves. It's not surprising that the Braves are up 2-0 on the Marlins in this series. They are heavily favored to advance to the NL Championship. This is why they feel confident in putting Kyle Wright on the mound today to start Game 3. Wright is a third-year pitcher with a career record of 2-7 and an ERA of 6.22 through 19 appearances (12 starts). Wright did slightly better in 2002, going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts but he got knocked around pretty good in two consecutive starts against the Marlins. In those two starts, Wright allowed eight runs on nine hits in seven innings and the Braves were out-scored by a combined 16-2. Miami will give 22-year-old rookie RHP Sixto Sanchez his second shot at playoff action as he gets the ball this afternoon. Sanchez went 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA in seven starts in 2020 and he held the Cubs scoreless over five innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card series. Atlanta is 0-5 in Wright's last five starts vs. winning teams. Take Miami. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-07-20 | Padres +210 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. In this much-anticipated match-up of NL West power houses, the Dodgers drew first blood on Tuesday, taking a 5-1 victory at Globe Life Field. Tonight for Game 2, L.A. will use its best lefthanded weapon of the past 30+ years as Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for his 27th playoff start. But the post-season hasn't always been kind to the veteran southpaw as Kershaw actually has a losing record in the playoffs (10-11) and his 4.22 ERA is almost two runs higher than the 2.43 number he's put up during the regular season. Sure Kershaw has had a lot of success in his career against the Pads (2.03 career ERA), but he's never faced them in the post-season and it's safe to say this is the best San Diego lineup he's seen since he came into the league 12 years ago. Meanwhile, Zach Davies has had similar success vs. the Dodgers, as his career ERA vs. L.A. is 2.37, with a 1.05 WHIP. This an advantageous situation for the Padres who are 11-4 in their last 15 games in double-revenge situations. Take San Diego as a big underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees -120 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. After getting blown out in Game 1 on Monday, the Rays needed to come back strong on Tuesday against the resurgent New York offense and pitching. That's exactly what Tampa did, taking Game 2 by a 7-5 final. Tonight is the Yanks opportunity to grab the lead back in what promises to be a close and tough three-of-five series. Veteran RH Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound for New York and he'll be looking to atone for a sub-par performance in the Wild Card Series against Cleveland (4 IP; 6 ER). The poor start against the Tribe notwithstanding, Tanaka has been a beast in the post-season throughout his career. In nine lifetime playoff starts, the 31-year-old is 5-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 50 innings. Perhaps more important is that Tanaka has faced the Rays 21 times (all starts) and he is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP against them in just over 130 innings. And Tanaka should enjoy his first career start in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-07-20 | A's +110 v. Astros | Top | 9-7 | Win | 110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. The Astros were not only the last American League Team to make it into the post-season (they locked down their spot with just two days to go in the regular season). They were also the only AL club to make it in with a losing record. So, naturally, people were thinking "last in, first out," and you can hardly blame them. But here we are, two games into the second round, and Houston has yet to lose a game (4-0). And the 'Stros are just one win away from a most unlikely appearance in the LCS. The A's haven't had much of an answer through two games but you know they will pull out all the stops this afternoon. So, it's fitting that they'll send their top rookie pitcher to the mound in LH Jesus Luzardo. The just-turned-23-year-old had a forgettable start in the Wild Card series against the White Sox, so he's looking for a little redemption this afternoon in a must-win situation. Luzardo is unbeaten in six daytime games (three starts) going 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA in 26 innings. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-20 | Astros v. A's -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. The Astros drew first blood in this series, taking Game 1 against the A's on Monday, putting up ten runs in the process. Houston is now 3-0 in the playoffs and a season that's been the weirdest in history just keeps getting weirder. LHP Sean Manaea may not have been the A's best starter over the course of the season as evidenced by his 4-3 record and 4.50 ERA in 11 starts. But he was their best starter in the second half of the short campaign. After a disastrous beginning which saw Manaea to 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA after four starts covering 15 innings the 28-year-old southpaw really settled down. Through his last seven starts, Manaea didn't allow more than three ER (allowing just one four times) and he cut that 9.00 ERA in half. Most important is that the A's went 6-1 in those. He didn't get a start in the Wild Card series so this is Manaea's first action in 13 days, but he has some serious redemption on his mind nonetheless. His only previous playoff start was an ugly loss to the Rays last season. The A's are 15-3 in Manaea's last 18 daytime starts. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total. The Wild Card round is over and now we move on to the Division Series which will be a best-of-five format. They say timing is everything and certainly the Yankees are proving that. In the regular season, the offense for New York's AL squad could barely hit the broad side of a barn, batting just .247. But in their two games in the first round -- in which they made quick work of the Indians -- the Yanks batted .307 with a 1.06 OPS, the best such offensive numbers for any of the 16 MLB teams. Now the question is -- can they keep that up? They likely don't need to bat .307 tonight with their RH ace Gerrit Cole going to the mound. Cole pitched the first game in the Cleveland series, and with a 3-of-5 format the Yanks might get to use him twice in this one and that could be huge for them. He is a post-season machine, going 7-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 11 career playoff starts. And he's be pitching with an extra day of rest tonight. Likewise, Rays southpaw Blake Snell will be pitching with extra rest following his 5 2-3 scoreless innings in last week's 3-1 win over Toronto. In Snell's last three starts, he's given up just 4 runs in 16 2-3 innings (2.16 ERA; 0.90 WHIP), and all three of those games went 'under' the total. Even better: 27 of the last 46 meetings between the Yankees + Rays have gone 'under,' and I look for a relatively-low scoring game tonight. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over San Francisco. Both of these teams are ravaged by injuries, with the latest being 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who sustained an ankle injury. The 49ers, though, have survived better than the Eagles, as the 49ers are 2-1, while Philly is 0-2-1 after tying the Bengals last Sunday. Curiously, the Eagles have been favored by 5.5, 2 and 5.5 points in their first three, but have yet to break through with a win. Still, we will take Philly on this Sunday night, as we note that winless NFL teams are 100-61-4 ATS if they were not an underdog in their previous game. Even better: the Eagles are 114-79 ATS their last 193 as a road underdog, while the 49ers have gone 0-13-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. a foe not off a win. Take Philadelphia. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat +9.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers have won the first two games by double-digits to take a commanding 2-games-to-none series lead. Since no NBA team has ever successfully come back from a 3-0 series deficit, tonight's game is a "virtual must-win" for Miami. We'll grab the points with the Heat, as .605 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 60% in the Playoffs over the last 31 years off back to back double-digit defeats. Even better: the Heat are an awesome 48-24-2 ATS off back to back losses, including 34-8 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win. |
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10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears +3 | Top | 19-11 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Indianapolis Colts. The Bears have been installed as a home underdog this afternoon, notwithstanding the fact that they're 3-0 on the season. And one of the things I love to do is play on really good teams (that are at least 3 games over .500) as home underdogs (or PK) vs. .500 or better opponents that are off a win. Since 1980, our strong home pups are 100-69 ATS. Even better, the Bears are a super 45-25 ATS as home underdog of +3 or more points, while Indy is an awful 16-29-4 ATS when laying 3+ on the road. Take Nick Foles & Co. + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-20 | Giants +13.5 v. Rams | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Los Angeles Rams. Last week, we played against the Rams, and took Buffalo as a small home favorite. The Bills rewarded us with a last-second win, 35-32, which lowered L.A.'s record to 2-1 this season. Los Angeles will now take on the 0-3 Giants, and the biggest difference between the two teams is on the offensive side of the ball. LA is averaging 29.67 ppg, while New York has only scored 38 points this season, for a 12.67 ppg. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the offensively-challenged Giants. But consider that NFL underdogs of +8 (or more) points have cashed 61.4% if they average 17 ppg less than their opponent. And 0-3 teams have gone 25-10 ATS on the road vs. foes off a SU loss. Finally, New York's 78-47-3 ATS on the road vs. NFC Conference foes, including 11-1 ATS their last 12. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-03-20 | Southern Miss +1.5 v. North Texas | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles + the points over North Texas. The Eagles were thrashed last week, 66-24, by the Tulane Green Wave, as a 3.5-point underdog. And that was the 3rd straight point spread loss by Southern Miss to start the season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against Southern Miss after last week's debacle, where they failed to cover the spread by 38.5 points. But consider that teams that are winless ATS, at Game 3 forward, that failed to cover the spread by 35+ points in their previous game, have cashed 60% ATS over the last 41 years. That bodes well for the Golden Eagles tonight. As does the fact that Conference USA underdogs are 63-31-4 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses, when matched up against a conference foe off a loss. Moreover, North Texas is a miserable 16-34 ATS in conference games when the pointspread was between +6.5 and -6.5 points. Finally, the Mean Green fall into negative 285-395 and 90-196 ATS systems of mine that go against certain home favorites off straight-up losses. Take the Golden Eagles + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-03-20 | Navy v. Air Force +7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Air Force + the points over Navy. We played on the Midshipmen in their last game, a 27-24 upset win over Tulane (after trailing 24-0 at halftime). Now, Navy will travel to Fort Collins to take on its military rival, who will be playing its first game of the season today. Like many rivalries, this has been an underdog-oriented series. Since 1992, the underdog has gone 19-8 ATS, including 6-1 ATS at home. Additionally, the Falcons are 18-8-1 ATS their last 27 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS at home. And they're 88-63-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes. Finally, Navy has covered just 14 of 41 off an upset win when playing a non-conference foe, including 4-15 ATS its last 19 as a favorite. Take Air Force + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-03-20 | Virginia Tech v. Duke +13 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils have started this season 0-3 -- its worst start in the 13-year tenure of coach David Cutcliffe -- with three double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Boston College and Virginia. But Cutcliffe believes his team is "close" to breaking through with a win, as he's been heartened by how his team has looked in practice. The Blue Devils have been at their best when dressed up as an underdog, as they're 30-15-1 ATS their last 46, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +14.5 points. Take Duke. |
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10-03-20 | Texas A&M +18.5 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies + the points over Alabama. The Aggies will look to snap their 7-game losing streak to the Crimson Tide when these two SEC Conference rivals meet in Tuscaloosa, on Saturday afternoon. In Texas A/M's first game, it edged Vanderbilt, 17-12, as a 31.5-point favorite, while Alabama comes into this game off a 38-19 win at Missouri, as a 28.5-point favorite. We'll take the Aggies as a double-digit underdog, as SEC Conference teams have gone 145-81 ATS in the regular season against .500 (or better) SEC Conference rivals, if our 'play-on' team was off a SU win, but an ATS loss. Additionally, the Aggies fall into 52-21, 41-14 and 32-6 ATS systems of mine. Take the Aggies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-03-20 | Memphis v. SMU +1 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis. The Mustangs are 3-0, and have been scoring a lot of points this season. They tallied 50 last week vs. SF Austin, and 65 the previous week at North Texas. For the season, they're averaging 48.67 ppg. As faithful followers know, I love playing on NCAA teams that can score. And NCAA home underdogs off back to back games where they scored 48+ points, have cashed 69.2% since 1980, including 76.1% when playing with revenge. With SMU, indeed, playing with revenge from a 54-48 loss to Memphis last year, our 76.1% tightener is satisfied. Take SMU. |
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10-03-20 | TCU v. Texas -11 | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over the TCU Horned Frogs. Texas lost last season, 37-21, to TCU, so it will be out for revenge this afternoon, in Austin. The Longhorns' offense has been quite impressive this season, as it's averaging 61 ppg, on 582.5 ypg of total offense. One of the things I like to do is play on revenge-minded teams that can score. Since 1980, NCAA teams that average 55 ppg have cashed 78.7% when favored, and playing with revenge. Even better: TCU is a horrible 16-42-1 ATS vs. .600 (or better) revenge-minded opponents. Lay the points with the Longhorns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-20 | Heat +10 v. Lakers | Top | 114-124 | Push | 0 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. This NBA Finals match-up had the potential to be a fascinating series. Unfortunately, the Heat sustained injuries in Game 1, and now will be hard-pressed to upset the Lakers. But I love Miami + the points in this Game 2, as the adjusted point spread has more-than-compensated for the concomitant loss of talent. And one of the things I love to do when betting NBA playoffs is to take a team in Game 2 when it's getting significantly more (or laying significantly less) points in Game 2 than it did in Game 1. Sometimes this happens due to injuries (like in this game), while other times, the line gets adjusted off an unexpected result in Game 1. But what I've found is that it generally pays (87% since 1990) to play on the team getting a better number in Game 2 than in Game 1. Likewise, teams off a loss in Game 1 have gone 48-31 ATS in Game 2 when they were an underdog of more than nine points. This will be a competitive game tonight. Take Miami + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU -24 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Louisiana Tech. Both of these teams enter today's game with identical 2-0 records. But the Cougars have played the much more difficult schedule. BYU opened its season with a 55-3 blowout of Navy. And then it followed that up with a 48-7 trouncing of Troy State last week. We played on BYU in last Saturday's victory, and we'll come right back with it tonight, as it's outscored its opponents by 46.5 points per game. And that bodes well for it here, as teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 44+ points per game have covered 63% since 1980 when they were at home or on a neutral field. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 0-11 ATS when priced between +23 and +31.5 against non-conference foes. Take Brigham Young. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-20 | Cardinals +113 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Diego Padres. Expectations were sky-high for Cards' RHP Jack Flaherty heading into the season, with some believing that the 24-year-old would be right in the middle of the Cy Young discussions. But after a breakout 2019 campaign in which he finished fourth in the voting for the aforementioned pitching honor, Flaherty laid a big egg in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. In nine starts, Flaherty went 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA. And although his strikeout rate remained basically unchanged, his walk rate increased dramatically to a career-worst 3.6 per nine IP. But all of that -- or a great chunk of it anyway -- will be forgotten if Flaherty can lead his team to victory tonight in the Wild Card finale. Flaherty didn't face San Diego in 2020, but last season he threw five shutout innings in his only start against the Pads (his second overall start of 2019). The Cards are 18-11 this season (+10 games on the moneyline), and 101-78 (+16 games on the moneyline) their last 179 off a loss, while the Padres are 75-94 (minus 18 games on the moneyline) off a win, and 40-49 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) at home, when priced from +125 to -125. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the New York Jets/Denver Broncos game. Through the season's first three weeks, the games have gone 'over' in 29 of the 48 games, with overall scoring up this year over last. Neither of these teams has shown a propensity to stop their opponent's offense. The Broncos have allowed 70 points over their first three games (and would have allowed much more, but for Titans' kicker Stephen Gostkowski missing several FGs and XPs in Week 1). Meanwhile, the Jets have given up 27, 31 and 36 in their first three games. This over/under is the 2nd-lowest number of the 64 games scheduled thus far. And, by my math, it's too low. Indeed, the 'over' falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 72% since 1996. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 37-28 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Denver. In this match-up of winless teams, we'll take the homestanding New York Jets minus the points. It's true that the Jets are 0-3 ATS, while Denver is 2-1 ATS. But winless SU/ATS teams have cashed 65% over the last 40 years, at Game 3 forward, if they were matched up against a losing team with a .500 (or better) ATS record. And on Thursday Night Football, teams that have yet to win a game have cashed 70% at home (and 81% if they weren't favored by more than 5 points). Take the New York Jets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals. The 5th-seeded Cards pulled off a mild upset over the 4th-seeded Padres on Wednesday, taking a 7-4 win and now are just one win away from advancing to the quarterfinals. With Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger not eligible to play this round, the Padres will go with RHP and former Milwaukee Brewer Zach Davies. The Brewers are also a playoff team, but Davies must be thrilled to be in San Diego, where it would appear there will be lots of post-season games in his future if he can negotiate a long-term contract at some point. The 27-year-old followed up a solid 2019 campaign with an ever better 2020, going 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA in a full load of 12 starts covering just over 69 innings. One reason it would be wise for him to stay in San Diego is his record at Petco Park. In nine starts here, Davies is 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 53 innings. Davies' teams are also 6-1 in his last seven starts as a favorite, priced from -125 to -175. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | White Sox -105 v. A's | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Oakland. The White Sox will start rookie Dane Dunning, while Oakland will hand the ball to Michael Fiers. Also under consideration for the A's was southpaw Sean Manaea who, in my opinion, is a better pitcher than Fiers. But the A's were concerned about Chicago's 15-0 record this season vs. lefty starters, so they opted for the righty, Fiers, instead. I believe that was a mistake. Fiers' ERA this season is 4.58, but at home, it balloons to 5.81. Dunning's ERA is a nice 3.97, with a solid WHIP of 1.11. And in his lone daytime start this season, he threw five scoreless innings vs. the Royals, in a 5-2 ChiSox win. The bottom line is that, regardless of the starter, the A's are a less potent offensive team. Oakland's hitting just .223 on the season, compared to .260 for Chicago. And its runs per game is 0.6 less (but 1.1 runs per game in daytime affairs). Take the White Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | Reds +125 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Atlanta Braves. Game 1 of this series went 13 innings before the Braves finally got a run across the plate in a 1-0 victory. The Braves used their ace on Wednesday and LHP Max Fried was spectacular, throwing seven six-hit innings with 5 K's an 0 walks. But there's a pretty big drop off from Fried to rookie Ian Anderson. More importantly is that Anderson isn't a southpaw. The Reds simply can't hit lefties as evidenced by what happened Wednesday and so we can expect their offense -- which isn't bad -- to at least score some runs. They led with their ace, Trevor Bauer, in Game 1, but not far behind Bauer is RHP Luis Castillo who will get the call this afternoon. Castillo followed up his 15-win All Star 2019 with just a 4-6 record this season but his 3.21 ERA and 3.71 K:BB ratio were both improvements. The Braves are 1-5 in their last six playoff games as a favorite. Take Cincy. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians +118 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. Yesterday, the Yankees drew first blood with a 12-3 blowout win over Cleveland. Still, New York is a wallet-busting 13-18 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) on the road this season. And it also has won just three of its previous nine games, while the Indians have won seven of their previous nine. I love Cleveland to bounce back this evening against the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has made four starts on the road this season, and the Yankees lost each of those four games -- by a combined score of 22-3! Yet, the Yankees have been installed as a road favorite in this game. I'm not buying it. Take the Indians as a home underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-20 | White Sox v. A's -120 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox drew first blood Tuesday, taking a 4-1 decision from the A's to go one win away from advancing in the AL playoffs. Tonight it will be on 31-year-old RH Chris Bassitt to keep the series alive for the A's and force a deciding third game. Bassitt just might be the least-known starter with ace-like numbers in the league. In 11 starts this season, Bassitt is 5-2 and his 2.29 ERA puts him third in the AL in that category. Bassitt has never pitched in the playoffs before but he should be up to the task. Through his career Bassitt has done his best work here at home. In 38 games (32 starts) at the Coliseum, Bassitt has a 2.63 ERA, a number that is two runs better than when he's pitching elsewhere. And in four previous starts vs. the Sox, Bassitt is 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA in 23 2/3 innings. This is a good month for Bassitt as the A's are 6-0 in his last six September outings and they are also 6-0 in his last six starts after he allowed one run or less in his last. Take Oakland. |
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09-30-20 | Astros v. Twins -142 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -142 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. We played on the Astros yesterday as a huge underdog, and they surprised the Twins in Game 1 of this series by scoring three runs in the 9th, and are now sitting in the catbird seat, needing only one more victory to advance. The Twins could have something to say about that this afternoon as they send veteran RH Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios had some pedestrian numbers on the regular season (5-4 with a 4.00 ERA in 12 starts) but he has a way of stepping up in big situations and none is bigger than facing elimination. Incredibly, with the defeat on Tuesday, the Twins have now lost 17 post-season games in a row and if that doesn't motivate a team then nothing will. These two teams didn't play in the 2020 regular season, but prior to Tuesday's game, their last meeting was on May 2, 2019 -- a game won by Berrios after he pitched seven stellar innings, allowing two runs with five K's and no walks. This game will be played at Target Field and the Twins are 23-8 (+11 games on the moneyline) in their last 31 home contests. And unlike yesterday's game, where manager Dusty Baker could hand the ball to a gamer like Zack Greinke, his starting pitcher options today are not nearly as good. Notwithstanding yesterday's win, the Astros are 4-12 this season in the underdog role (minus 7 games on the moneyline), Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-20 | Reds v. Braves -120 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are in the playoffs. As strange as that sounds, it's true -- even if their 2020 post-season is a short-lived one. The first round is after all a best-of-three series and nobody would be surprised if the Braves move on in two games. But being here is still something for the Reds and their fans to be proud of. Game 1 features a couple of strikeout artists in RH Trevor Bauer (CIN) and LH Max Fried. The Braves would probably be smart to go with lefty starters in Games 1 and 2, if possible. The Reds simply could not hit southpaw pitching this season, batting a paltry .200 against them with a .291 OBP (worst in the NL). Only the Cubs' .196 BA vs. LHP kept Cincy out of the cellar in that category. And Fried isn't just any southpaw -- he's one of the best in the game. In 11 starts this season, the 26-year-old went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 56 innings. The Braves are 16-2 (+14 games on the moneyline) in their last 18 immediately after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Take Atlanta. |
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09-29-20 | Blue Jays +176 v. Rays | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays are the biggest underdog on today's card, and I think the number is a bit out-of-whack. Yes, Matt Shoemaker is not in the same class as Tampa Bay's Blake Snell. But it's a team game, and the Blue Jays outscored Tampa 48-44 in their 10 games this season. In Snell's last start vs. Toronto (August 24), the Blue Jays won 6-4. And Toronto's won three of Snell's five starts vs. it over the last two seasons. The Blue Jays were 12-8 (+5 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties this season. And Shoemaker's 4-0 with a 2.56 career ERA vs. the Rays. Take the underdog Blue Jays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-20 | White Sox -119 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Oakland A's. The White Sox will hand the ball to their big right-hander, Lucas Giolito, on this Tuesday afternoon. Certainly, it was an up-and-down season for Giolito. The high point was no doubt his no-hitter vs. Pittsburgh in late August. And, at the time, that was his second straight game he struck out 13 batters. But Giolito wasn't as effective after that, and he had a 4.07 ERA over his last five starts. Still, he possesses a ton of talent, and has been installed as a favorite on the road today. The ChiSox are 23-9 their last 32 as a road favorite. And they're a jaw-dropping 14-0 this season vs. lefty starters. Finally, Giolito has led Chicago to wins in 24 of his last 36 road starts -- and he was an underdog in most of those. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-20 | Astros +159 v. Twins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 159 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. There's no doubt which team, and which pitcher has had the better 2020 season. And that's Minnesota and Kenta Maeda. But Houston should not be discounted. Yet, that's exactly what the bettors are doing. As of this writing, the price is up 20 cents from the opening odds, and 67% of the bets are going on Minnesota. It's hard for me to pass up Houston and Greinke at this price. After all, Houston's 29-6 (+18 games on the moneyline) when playing with rest. And Greinke's 8-5 as an underdog of +150 or less. And, of course, Minnesota's lost an MLB-record 16 straight playoff games since 2004. So, yes, it's true that Maeda's Twins were 8-3 in his 11 starts this season, and he led the league with a 0.75 WHIP. But it's also true that, in his only start vs. Houston in his career, he was bombed for 5 runs in 5 1-3 innings (a 14-0 Astros win). Take the underdog Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-28-20 | Lightning -165 v. Stars | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. Game 5 of this Stanley Cup Finals was one for the ages. With their backs against the wall, the Stars somehow managed to survive yet again despite being out-shot and out-played by the Lightning. And once they were able to get the game into overtime, they seemed to be energized to a different level. Dallas prevailed 9:23 into the second overtime period on the second goal of the game by Corey Perry to stay alive and take this series to a sixth game. Like he has done much of these Playoffs, the Stars' goalie Anton Khodobin kept them in the game and you have to wonder if he has it in him to do it again. While this is a 3-2 series, the games really haven't been that close. The Bolts have out-shot the Stars in all five of the games, and they hold a cumulative advantage in that category of 175 to 135. Tampa is 64-25 (+25 games on the moneyline) in its last 56 immediately following a loss. Look for the Lightning to wrap up their second Stanley Cup Championship tonight. Take the Bolts. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-20 | Lions +6 v. Cardinals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona. The Lions are 0-2 (so, what else is new?) to start the year -- the 7th time in 15 seasons they've started 0-2. But they've been able to move the ball, as they've scored 21+ points in both games (vs. Chicago and Green Bay). And 0-2 SU/ATS teams have cashed 60% in Week 3 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Even better: Detroit is 37-11 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 12 points, while Arizona is 8-18 ATS at home vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .140. Finally, since 1980, road teams off back to back SU/ATS division losses have cashed 60% vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders. Last week, the Patriots went into a difficult Seattle venue, and lost to the Seahawks, 35-30, as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Raiders christened their new Allegiant Stadium with a 34-24 comeback win over New Orleans. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they will have to face an ornery Patriots team which will not want to fall to 1-2. And New England is an awesome 10-0 SU and ATS off a straight-up loss when playing an .833 (or better) opponent off a win. Finally, NFL road underdogs off back to back wins, in which they tallied more than 30 points, have cashed just 31.4% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss. Take the Patriots. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -1 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Rams. This line opened at -3, and has come way down -- to the point where I want to now step in and take the home team. I had no interest in laying 3 points, but the value now squarely rests on the Bills. Indeed, Buffalo falls into a great system of mine which is 74-33 ATS since 1981 which plays on certain winning teams not laying more than 1 points. Yes, Buffalo failed to cover the spread last week in its win over the Dolphins. But it still won, and is 2-0 on the season. And the Bills also are 50-22 ATS at home off a point spread loss, if they're playing a foe off a SU win. Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-0, following their upset win last week vs. Philly. Unfortunately, winning teams are a soft 256-332 ATS on the road off upset wins, provided they weren't laying more than six points. Take the Bills at home. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Troy v. BYU -14 | Top | 7-48 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Troy. Both of these teams come into tonight's affair off blowout wins on the road. The Trojans trounced Middle Tennessee St. in Murfreesboro, 47-14, while the Cougars annihilated Navy, 55-3, in Annapolis. One difference, though, between the teams. BYU has had the last 19 days off, while Troy played last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the Cougars, as rested NCAA home favorites, of less than 40 points, are 128-76 ATS in non-conference home games, if they own a win percentage greater than .750. Take the Cougars. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Stars v. Lightning -155 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. We cashed again last night on Tampa Bay (we've now played on the Lightning in each of their last 20 games), and won't get off them tonight, given that they might hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. Indeed, I released the Lightning as my NHL futures pick a year ago, prior to the season, at 7-1 odds, and it was one of my two favorite futures bets in the past 20 years (along with Virginia (2019) in NCAA basketball, at 22-1 odds). Game 5 of the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals will have an interesting wrinkle, as it will be played with no rest after a grueling, overtime Game 4 that went late into Friday night. When the smoke cleared, it was the Bolts who emerged with a 5-4 victory and a 3-1 series lead, needing just one more to clinch their second-ever Stanley Cup. Last night's defeat was painful for the Stars, who had three separate leads in the game (1-0, 2-0, and 3-2) but simply couldn't put the incredibly pesky Bolts away. And the penalty which set up Tampa's game-winning goal was questionable, too. It's not known as of this writing whether the Lightning will rest goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to go with back-up Curtis McElhinney, but we're not going to let that possibility interfere with our selection as the Bolts have consistently shown that they can win without key players on the ice this entire post-season. This will be the second back-to-back game for Tampa in these playoffs, and it won the first one 7-1 over Boston. During the regular season, Tampa was 8-3 in 11 games with no off-day. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Florida State +11.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-52 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Miami-Fla. Miami defeated Louisville, 47-34, last Saturday. But it gave up over 500 yards to Louisville, which outgained Miami, 506 to 485. The Hurricanes, though, benefited from three Louisvlle turnovers, and that was the Cardinals' undoing. Meanwhile, the Seminoles had last week off to lick their wounds following a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 12. There's no doubt that Florida State will be enormously motivated to bounce back today, especially given that it's playing with revenge from a 17-point defeat to these Hurricanes last season. We'll grab the double-digit with Florida State, as rested, revenge-minded teams, off a season-opening loss, have cashed 66% since 1980 vs. unrested foes. Even better: the underdog in this rivalry has gone 26-12-1 ATS over the last 40 years. Take Florida State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Cubs v. White Sox -150 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Chicago Cubs. By now, most baseball followers know that the Nationals traded their #1 pitching prospect, RH Lucas Giolito, to the White Sox for OF Adam Eaton. But what they may not know is that the Nats included another talented righthander in that deal. That pitcher was former (2016) first round draft pick Dane Dunning. The 25-year-old is making his MLB debut this season for the Sox and it has to be at least a little bit painful for the Nats to not only see Giolito doing so well, but also now Dunning developing nicely for Chicago. The former Florida Gator will get his seventh start tonight and it will be first vs. the Sox cross-town rivals. Dunning has done by far his best work in his new home ballpark, going 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA in three starts covering 16 1/3 innings here at Guaranteed Rate Field (vs. 1-0 and 4.30 on the road). The Cubs will go with LHP Jon Lester and the White Sox are an incredible 13-0 in their last 13 games vs. southpaw starters. Take the Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Astros -194 v. Rangers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -194 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. The Astros will turn to Lance McCullers tonight, and he's been spectacular over his last two starts. McCullers faced this Rangers team on Sept. 16, and threw seven scoreless innings (2 hits, 0 BB, 8 K), and he followed that up with 6 2-3 innings of shutout baseball at Seattle. He'll match up against veteran RHP Kyle Gibson tonight, and Gibson has a horrid 5.87 ERA in 11 starts (7.18 ERA at home). In his last outing, Gibson was bombed for 7 earned runs in 4 innings at the Angels. Houston is 101-44 (+21 games on the moneyline) as a favorite of -125 (or more) on the road, while Texas is a wallet-busting 43-79 (-8 games on the moneyline) as a home dog, priced from +150 to +200. Take Houston. |
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09-26-20 | Marlins v. Yankees -185 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Miami Marlins. The Yankees are no strangers to finding a kid somewhere down south and signing him as a 16-year-old before anyone else can grab him. A case in point is now-21-year-old Deivi Garcia. The Yanks signed Garcia out of the Dominican Republic five years ago and this season the RHP is making his debut in pinstripes. For the most part, it's been a successful coming-out party as Garcia is 2-2 in five starts so far. The 4.88 ERA may seem a bit high, but Garcia also has a K:BB ratio above 5:1 as he has punched out 26 hitters and walked just 5 in 27 1/3 innings of work. Garcia had back-to-back strong seven-inning outings against a very good Blue Jays lineup but then threw in a bit of a clunker against the Red Sox in his last. But that was Garcia's first start at Fenway Park, and Fenway can be difficult for pitchers who have never thrown there. The Marlins just punched their post-season ticket with their win over this Yankee club yesterday, so a letdown could be in order this afternoon. Take the Yanks. |
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09-25-20 | Lightning -152 v. Stars | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. As if the Lightning's fortunes couldn't get any better, they got captain Steven Stamkos back on the ice for the first time in seven months and as if that wasn't enough, Stamkos scored on his first shot of the game. But it would also be his only shot as Stamkos didn't play in the final seven minutes of the first period and then didn't play the rest of the game, having apparently re-aggravated his injury. But it didn't matter much as the rest of the Bolts players stepped up in his absence and Tampa cruised to a 5-2 victory to take a 2-1 series lead heading into tonight's crucial Game 4. It was Tampa's most complete game of the series as the Bolts out-shot the Stars by 32-24 and out-played them on both ends of the ice, knocking Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin out after two periods. It's unclear whether Stamkos will suit up tonight, but the truth is that it may not matter if the Bolts continue to play like they have. Tampa is 46-21 in its last 67 after a win by more than two goals, while Dallas is 8-12 this season off back to back losses. Take the Bolts. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-20 | Padres -148 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -148 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco. The Padres will hand the ball to RHP Dinelson Lamet tonight, while the Giants will start southpaw Tyler Anderson (3-3, 4.53 ERA). Lamet's been consistently brilliant this season. He's made 11 starts, and has a 2.07 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. And, most importantly, the Padres win when he starts, as they've won his last six outings, and nine of his 11 this season. In those 11 starts, he's given up 1 earned run or less in eight of them, while he gave up 2 runs once, and 3 runs twice. He's in great form, as he has had 32 strikeouts against just four walks and 11 hits in his last three games (20 2/3 innings), for an 0.87 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 8:1 K/BB ratio. And his numbers have been solid against the Giants, as he has a career 2.70 ERA vs. SF. Meanwhile, Tyler Anderson's teams have won just 12 of his 39 starts vs. division rivals. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-20 | A's v. Dodgers -200 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Oakland Athletics. The future of the NL West may someday belong to the San Diego Padres, but for now it's the Dodgers who reign supreme. Los Angeles has clinched its eighth straight Division Crown and it will also finish with the League's best record in this shortened season. But nobody knows better than the Dodgers that those eight pennants have resulted in zero World Series rings and it's now been more than 30 years since they have won it all. If they're going to do it this year, they're going to need to stay as healthy as possible. That's been problematic for young RH ace Walker Buehler. But the good news is that it's been a blister problem that has sidelined the 26-year-old and those are normally very manageable. Buehler gets his first start since September 8 tonight and no doubt he will be carefully watched. He's been a beast in inter-league games, going 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA in eight starts covering just under 43 innings vs. teams from the American League. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-20 | Lakers -6 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver. The Nuggets got back into the series with a blowout win over Los Angeles on Tuesday. We stayed away from that Game, but will jump back into the fray tonight, and play on the Los Angeles Lakers. Since 1990, #3-seeded NBA teams are a poor 37-57-3 ATS after upsetting their opponent in the previous playoff game. Even better: LeBron James teams are a jaw-dropping 21-0 straight-up, and 17-4 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs vs. foes off back to back ATS wins. Lay the points with the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-20 | Astros -125 v. Rangers | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Houston's magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to 2. So, if the Astros win tonight, and the Angels lose, Houston would qualify for the playoffs. We'll play on Houston, which is now 100-43 (+22 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite of -125 (or more). Meanwhile, Texas is 14-31 (minus 10 games on the moneyline) as an underdog. Take the Astros. |
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09-24-20 | White Sox +113 v. Indians | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians. With a long-sought post-season spot now secured, it seems that the White Sox are going to be cautious with some of their veteran starters. And none more-so than the southpaw leader of the rotation, Dallas Keuchel. The former Astros-Braves veteran appears to be on some type of a pitch count, having not allowed a run in his last three starts, but also only having thrown a total of 14 innings in those (5 IP, 5 IP and 4IP in his last one). That last start was a gem as he held the Reds scoreless while the Sox beat them and ace Trevor Bauer 4-0 in what would be a no-decision for Keuchel. This shows how confident the Sox are in their bullpen right now and rightly so. Chicago relievers are 16-8 with a 3.69 ERA on the season so far. The Indians batting order has struggled mightily against LHP this season, hitting just .227 against them (fourth-worst in the AL). Chicago is 19-8 in its last 27 games vs. teams from the AL Central. Take the White Sox. |
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Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-25-20 | Browns v. Bengals UNDER 51 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45.5 | Top | 3-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Steelers v. Titans -1 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Packers v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets +10.5 | Top | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Alabama v. Tennessee +22 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Houston -14.5 v. Navy | Top | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest +11 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma State -2.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Oklahoma v. TCU +7 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
10-21-20 | Rays +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 140 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -169 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 55.5 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Braves +122 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Jets +10 v. Dolphins | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -124 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Ravens v. Eagles +10 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Texans +4 v. Titans | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Bears v. Panthers -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Bengals +8 v. Colts | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Falcons +4 v. Vikings | Top | 40-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech -12 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
10-17-20 | North Carolina v. Florida State +13.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Braves +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +5.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3 | Top | 49-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Texas State +3.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +6.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves +201 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 201 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros +132 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 132 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
10-13-20 | Rays v. Astros +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
10-12-20 | Astros +123 v. Rays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 54 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns -1 | Top | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Dolphins v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 43-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Cardinals v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
10-10-20 | Mississippi State +3 v. Kentucky | Top | 2-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
10-10-20 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky +7 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia -7 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
10-08-20 | Braves v. Marlins +130 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10-07-20 | Padres +210 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees -120 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
10-07-20 | A's +110 v. Astros | Top | 9-7 | Win | 110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10-06-20 | Astros v. A's -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat +9.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears +3 | Top | 19-11 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Giants +13.5 v. Rams | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Southern Miss +1.5 v. North Texas | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Navy v. Air Force +7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Virginia Tech v. Duke +13 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Texas A&M +18.5 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Memphis v. SMU +1 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
10-03-20 | TCU v. Texas -11 | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
10-02-20 | Heat +10 v. Lakers | Top | 114-124 | Push | 0 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU -24 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
10-02-20 | Cardinals +113 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 37-28 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10-01-20 | White Sox -105 v. A's | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Reds +125 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians +118 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
09-30-20 | White Sox v. A's -120 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
09-30-20 | Astros v. Twins -142 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -142 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
09-30-20 | Reds v. Braves -120 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
09-29-20 | Blue Jays +176 v. Rays | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
09-29-20 | White Sox -119 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
09-29-20 | Astros +159 v. Twins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 159 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
09-28-20 | Lightning -165 v. Stars | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Lions +6 v. Cardinals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -1 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Troy v. BYU -14 | Top | 7-48 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Stars v. Lightning -155 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Florida State +11.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-52 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Cubs v. White Sox -150 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Astros -194 v. Rangers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -194 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Marlins v. Yankees -185 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
09-25-20 | Lightning -152 v. Stars | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
09-25-20 | Padres -148 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -148 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
09-24-20 | A's v. Dodgers -200 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
09-24-20 | Lakers -6 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
09-24-20 | Astros -125 v. Rangers | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
09-24-20 | White Sox +113 v. Indians | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |