Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-15-16 | South Alabama v. Arkansas State -5 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 40 h 10 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves minus the points over South Alabama. In its last game, South Alabama pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season-to-date, with a 42-24 win, as a 19-point underdog, over then-Top 25-ranked San Diego State. But off that monumental upset victory, we'll fade the Jaguars on the road, on Saturday, as they fall into a negative 35-108 ATS system of mine. Additionally, teams off wins by 14+ points, as 14-point (or greater) underdogs, have covered just 32.1% over the past 11 seasons. Finally, the Jags are a poor 0-6 ATS off an ATS win in their previous game, while the Red Wolves are 11-0 ATS since 2005 when priced from -3.5 to -10.5 points vs. a foe off a straight-up win. Take Arkansas State. Below the Radar Rout! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | New Mexico State v. Idaho -4 | Top | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 38 h 11 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals minus the points over New Mexico State. We've gone against the Aggies a couple of times this season, with the last being their road game at Troy State, back on Sept. 24. That game was a blowout from the get-go, as Troy State walloped New Mexico State, 52-6. The Aggies did bounce back to win their next game, 37-31, as a 5.5-point home underdog vs. Louisiana Lafayette. Unfortunately, that upset win has triggered several of my best systems that all go against the Aggies as a road underdog on Saturday. Those angles have records of 103-38, 23-5 and 99-55 ATS. Last year, the Aggies survived to defeat the Vandals, 55-48, at home. But New Mexico State's an awful 0-8 ATS off a home game, if they're matched up against a revenge-minded foe, and the Aggies are not getting 7+ points. The revenger is also 9-3 ATS in this series since 2002. Take Idaho. Conference Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | Blue Jays -130 v. Indians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Indians. In one season, LHP JA Happ went from a 32-year-old journeyman pitcher to a 20-game winner who will most likely finish in the top three in the AL Cy Young balloting. Those who were criticizing the Jays for signing Happ to a 3-year, $36 Million contract last November - and there were plenty of them out there - are having a big helping of crow right about now as Happ leads his team into the ALCS as arguably their #1 hurler. He'll need to be at his best as the Tribe hit lefties very well this season, their 777 runs being the second most scored vs. southpaws in the AL during the regular season (Boston - 878). And Happ was at his best in his only regular season start vs. Cleveland as he threw seven strong innings and his offense supported him very nicely en route to an easy 17-1 victory back on July 3. If Happ can leave the game with any sort of lead (it doesn't have to be 16 runs), then the Toronto bullpen will likely finish things off for him. The Jays relievers have been second-to-none in the post-season, with a 1.29 ERA in five games, with opponents batting just .106 against them so far. Finally, Cleveland's won just 3 of its last 14 as an underdog. Take Toronto. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-15-16 | Nebraska v. Indiana +3 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 54 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Nebraska. Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 5-0 record following its 31-16 home win vs. Illinois. We played against Nebraska in that game, and got the $$$ with the Illini, who were catching 20.5 points in that game. One reason is that I'm of the mindset that the 'Huskers are overrated by being ranked among the nation's Top 10. Indeed, its best win this season was at home, 35-32, vs. Oregon, as a 3-point favorite. At the time, it was impressive (even if Nebraska only "pushed" against the spread), but Oregon has since lost all 3 of its games (both SU and ATS), and failed to cover those games by 16, 21, and 39 points! Nebraska did have last week off, but a week of rest has actually not served undefeated teams (with records of 5-0 or better) well, as they've cashed just 23% on the road in the regular season when not getting 3+ points. Nebraska's also a poor 8-25-1 ATS away from home off a double-digit conference home win. Take the points with the Hoosiers. Underdog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | Wake Forest +21.5 v. Florida State | Top | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 47 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Florida State. The Seminoles bounced back from their last-second loss to North Carolina with an upset win at Miami. But off that upset win, I expect a letdown vs. a good Wake Forest team. The Demon Deacons are 5-1 this season (their best start since 2006), yet are catching more than 20 points in this game. And .714 (or better) teams are 18-1 ATS as double-digit dogs since 1995 against conference foes off an upset win over another conference foe (with the only ATS loss by a mere half-point). Florida State was already significantly banged-up going into last week's game, but suffered more casualties vs. the Hurricanes, with QB Deondre Francois (shoulder) and star DB Nate Andrews (pectoral) among the wounded. Francois is listed as probable, but Andrews was lost for the season. Admittedly, the Deacs also suffered a key injury last week (QB Kendall Hinton), but the drop-off between Hinton and back-up John Wolford is not significant. And, outside of that injury, the Deacs are relatively healthy. Wake's defense against the run has been strong this season (3.4 ypr against foes that average 4.0 ypr), and it will make things difficult for FSU's Dalvin Cook. Take Wake Forest. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | Iowa -11 v. Purdue | Top | 49-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over the Purdue Boilermakers. The Boilers upset Illinois as a 9-point underdog last week, 34-31. But they were blown out by Maryland, 50-7, in their only other Big 10 tilt this season. And, notwithstanding Purdue's big win last week, it's hard to find much to love about the Boilers' defense. After all, it allowed Maryland to run for 400 yards on 46 carries (8.69 ypr). And then it allowed Illinois to run for 315 yards on 46 carries (6.84 ypr). To put these numbers in perspective, Maryland has rushed for 5.41 ypr in its other games this season, while Illinois has rushed for 5.21 ypr in its other games. Thus, Purdue allowed its two Big 10 foes to get 3.28 and 1.63 ypr more than they have otherwise gained this season. Iowa prefers to run the football, and I expect its backs to have a field day against Purdue's soft run defense. Purdue's an awful 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS its last 16 as home underdogs! And it also falls into negative 69-154, 89-162, 6-54 and 62-142 ATS systems of mine. Take Iowa. High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals 'under' the total. Big games need big game pitchers, and there's possibly none better than Max Scherzer who will get the start tonight as the Nats try to advance to their first League Championship Series. The veteran RH hasn't had his best stuff in recent starts, but he has a way of stepping up when there's a lot on the line, and you can't have more on the line than the Nats do tonight at home. Opposite Scherzer will be LHP Rich Hill, who will go on just three days' rest. Run support has been an issue for Hill since he joined the team at the end of July and that issue continued in his start in game #2 of the NLDS last Sunday when the Dodgers plated just two runs. Don't expect that to change much back here at Nationals Park, so if Hill is to be victorious, he will likely have to hold the Nats to no more than one run while he's in the game. Whichever starter leaves with the lead tonight is the likely winner because both the Nats and Dodgers bullpens have been very, very good. In fact they are the top two bullpens in the NL post-season as the Nats' relievers sport a 1.02 ERA and the Dodgers' come in at 2.81. The under is 9-3 in Scherzer's last 12 home starts. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants +116 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Chicago Cubs. The Giants were able to stave off elimination last night thanks to yet another great performance from their ace, Madison Bumgarner. Tonight, they'll try to do it again and send this series back to Chicago for game five. And they'll go with the other southpaw in their playoff rotation as Matt Moore makes his first post-season start since three years ago as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Moore came to San Francisco at the trade deadline and although his overall results since heading west have been mixed, Moore has really enjoyed pitching at his new home ballpark recently. in his last four starts here at AT&T Park, Moore is 4-0 while allowing five runs in 26 innings for a 1.73 ERA. The Cubs will go with a veteran starter who certainly is no stranger to the post-season. RHP John Lackey will attempt to pull off the rare feat of winning World Series rings with three different teams as he previously reached the pinnacle with the Angels in 2002 and the Red Sox in 2013. But Lackey has struggled on the road all year, winning just four of 13 starts away from Wrigley with a 4.37 ERA (vs. 2.62 at home). Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-16 | Nationals v. Dodgers -235 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Washington Nationals. The Dodgers will take a calculated risk today, down two games to one in this series and facing elimination with one more loss. The risk is sending out Clayton Kershaw on short rest with the season on the line. And it's a risk that is probably worth taking because Kershaw has done well starting on three days' rest in his postseason career. He's done it three times, lasted at least six innings each start, and has compiled a 1.89 ERA in those outings. The goal, of course, is to force a fifth and deciding game back in DC, and Kershaw gives Los Angeles the best opportunity to do so. The other option would have been to start rookie Julio Urias, but then the Dodgers would be second-guessed, much like Buck Showalter was in the Orioles' Wild Card loss for not using Zach Britton. Despite the loss on Monday, the Dodgers are still 44-17 in their last 61 home games while the Nats are just 3-8 in the last 11 meetings. Take the Dodgers. MLB High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-16 | Cubs v. Giants -128 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Chicago Cubs. Not too surprisingly, the Cubs took a 2-0 lead in this series at home after Saturday night's victory and now it shifts to the west coast. The historical contrast between these two teams couldn't be more dramatic. The Cubs haven't won the World Series since 1908 while the Giants have won three of the last six. If you're down to your last hope as the Giants are tonight, then there isn't anyone you would rather have going to the mound than tonight's starter LH Madison Bumgarner. Simply put, Mad-Bum is without question the most dominant post-season performer of the decade, and he showed why in yet another complete-game playoff outing in the NL Wild Card game against the Mets last Wednesday. That road victory improved Mad-Bum's already gaudy playoff numbers to 8-3 with a 1.94 ERA in 15 games including 13 starts (with three complete-game shutouts). After beginning his post-season career in similar fashion with a shutout of the Pirates last October, Cubs RH ace Jake Arrieta had two poor outings (one each in the NLDS and NLCS) to finish up his 2015 campaign. Could Arrieta be another David Price/Clayton Kershaw (great in the regular season; not so good otherwise)? We will find out. Take the Giants. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-16 | Indians v. Red Sox -140 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Cleveland Indians. The Red Sox forgot to pack something when they traveled to Cleveland for games one and two of the ALDS: Their MLB-best offense. In the two games on Thursday and Friday, Boston's potent line-up that averaged a league-best 5.4 runs per game over the course of the season only managed a total of four runs (including a big, fat goose-egg in game two). So like a caged animal with nowhere to go, the Bosox are awfully dangerous this evening as they try to get back into this series. It isn't the prettiest of pitching match-ups, that's for sure, as RHPs Josh Tomlin and Clay Buchholz go to the hill. Tomlin is a soft-tosser and his off-speed stuff has gotten him in plenty of trouble at Fenway Park in the past as he is 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in three starts covering just under 19 innings here prior to today. Tomlin had a disastrous month of August in which he went 0-5 with a 11.86 ERA in his six starts. It's important to note that although he turned things around on paper in September (2-1 with a 1.69 ERA), his four starts last month were two each against the Royals and White Sox. So it's safe to say that today will be his toughest test by far since that unsightly month of August. And the fact that Cleveland's 1-9 its last 10 games as a road underdog certainly doesn't help matters. Take the Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Bills v. Rams +1 | Top | 30-19 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams over the Buffalo Bills. The Rams are 3-1 on the season (1 game better than the 2-2 Bills), yet find themselves in an underdog (or PK'em) role this afternoon. However, since 1980, home teams off back to back wins, are 84.3% in non-division games, if they are priced as an underdog (or PK), and also own a better W/L percentage than their foe. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the San Diego/Oakland game. This play falls into one of my best Totals systems, with a record of 44-11 since 1980. Additionally, the Chargers scored 34 points in a 1-point loss to New Orleans last week. And San Diego's gone 'under' the total in 15 straight games since December 16, 2012 if it scored at least 30 points, and gave up at least 14 points in its previous game. Take the 'under.' |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Chargers + the points over Oakland. The Chargers are 1-3 on the season, while Oakland is 3-1 following its upset win at Baltimore. However, 1-3 teams are 90.3% ATS in Game 5 vs. division rivals off a win, if priced from +9 to -4 points. Take San Diego. |
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10-09-16 | Falcons v. Broncos -4 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons. Last week, Atlanta won its 3rd straight game as an underdog, with a blowout win over the Carolina Panthers. And that followed upset wins over the Saints and Raiders. Meanwhile, Denver is 4-0 on the season, and comes into this game off a 20-point win at Tampa Bay. I look for Atlanta's streak to come to an end at Mile High Stadium, in Denver, as the Broncos -- at least from my perspective -- are the league's best team. Denver's outscoring its opposition by 11 points per game, and is giving up just 16 ppg. Additionally, NFL teams with a 3-0 or 4-0 record have been sensational at home in non-division games, including 28-4 ATS when not laying 7 or more points. But the clincher for me is that teams off 3 straight upset wins have covered just 31% of their non-division games over the past 37 years. Take Denver minus the points. NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals 'under' the total. The pitching match-up in game one of this series got all of the attention - and deservedly so, with a total of four Cy Young awards and one MVP between Kershaw and Scherzer. But don't sell tonight's billing short either as LHP Rich Hill of the Dodgers goes opposite RH Tanner Roark. Roark earned this game two start with a second half in which posted a 2.60 ERA in 15 starts to catch Scherzer and win the ERA title on the team. But if there was a problem for the 30-year-old down the stretch it was run support (or lack thereof). In the month of August, the Nats scored 39 runs in Roark's six starts, or an average of better than six runs per start. But in September, the bats went cold when Roark was out on the mound, resulting in a total of just 13 runs being scored in his six starts. Not surprisingly, Roark went just 2-3 for the month despite an ERA under three runs. Rich Hill can certainly appreciate Roark's dilemma. In his six starts since coming to Los Angeles from Oakland, the Dodgers have plated a total of just 17 runs. And Hill's ERA over that time of 1.83 makes Roark's look inflated. The under is 9-3-1 in Roark's last 13 starts against teams with a winning record. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Lions were upset by the Chicago Bears, on the road last week, to fall to 1-3 on the season. But all three of Detroit's losses have been close (1, 7, and 3-point defeats). Meanwhile, Philly comes into this game with a 3-0 record, including back to back upset wins its last two games over Chicago & Pittsburgh. And all 3 of Philly's wins have been by double-digits (by an average of 21.67 ppg). But off those two upset wins, we'll fade the Eagles as a road favorite in Detroit. Indeed, since 1980, home teams off a road loss are an awesome 37-14 ATS against non-division foes off back to back upset wins. That's one reason I favor Detroit. Another is that undefeated teams, with a 3-0 record, and a scoring margin better than 14 ppg, are a dismal 8-22 ATS since 1981. Take Detroit. NFL Underdog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Jets +9 v. Steelers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers rebounded off their 31-point loss at Philly to soundly defeat Kansas City, 43-14, at home last week. For the season, Pitt is 3-1 straight-up and ATS. The Jets are the mirror opposite, as they're 1-3 SU and ATS, after falling by 10 points to Seattle at home last Sunday. We'll take the points with the Flyboys, as they fall into a super bounce-back system of mine. What we want to do is play on any road underdog of +3 or more points, off a home loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a home win, provided their opponent didn't fail to cover the spread in its previous game, and has a winning ATS record on the season. Since 1980, our road dogs have covered 62% of the time in this situation. Even better: New York is a super 67-49 ATS as a road underdog (or PK) against opponents off a win. Take New York. NFL Road Warrior. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-16 | Notre Dame v. NC State -2.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 62 h 49 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on North Carolina State minus the points over Notre Dame, as North Carolina State falls into a super 96-44 ATS system of mine. That system is based, in large part, on the Fighting Irish's sieve-like defense. This is Greg Hudson's first year as Notre Dame defensive coordinator (following a 3-year stint at Purdue). To say that the season has not gone as planned would be a massive understatement. Indeed, if you toss out Notre Dame's game against Nevada (the weakest foe among the Irish's five opponents), then Notre Dame has given up an average of 39.25 points per game! And, for the season, the Irish defense is giving up more than 12 ppg than NC State's defense. That doesn't bode well for the Irish on Saturday, given that the Wolfpack has covered 80% as home favorites the past 37 years vs. foes with defensive averages greater than 31.5 ppg, and 69% vs. foes with defenses that gave up more than 12 ppg than NC State's defense. Take the Wolfpack minus the points. NCAA Football High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Clemson. Last week, Clemson won the biggest game of the college season-to-date, when it upset Louisville 42-36, at home, in a match-up of Top 5 teams. Off that win, I look for a letdown on the road on this Friday. Boston College falls into 120-64, 98-39 and 154-84 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine following its back-to-back 30-point wins. Additionally, unbeaten teams, like Clemson, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are an awful 35.4% ATS since 1980 as road favorites of -3 (or more) points, if they're off an upset win. Finally, double-digit favorites are a poor 27.9% ATS off an upset conference win, if they're matched up against a .600 (or better) conference foe since 1980. Take Boston College. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays 'under' the total. After barely being able to put anyone across the plate in the Wild Card game on Tuesday night, the Blue Jays didn't waste much time in game one of the ALDS. Toronto came into Arlington last night and proceeded to put up seven runs in the first four innings on its way to smoking the Rangers in a 10-1 blow-out. So Texas' backs are against the proverbial wall this afternoon as the Rangers turn to RH Yu Darvish in game two. The good news is that in seven starts against Toronto, Darvish is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in just under 48 innings. And Darvish has been dominant in his career in day games, going 13-6 with a 2.74 ERA in 28 day-time starts. The Jays will turn to LHP JA Happ who has had a great season, going 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA. He also has a career ERA of 3.07 vs. Texas. The Blue Jays have gone 'under' in 46 of 70 games this year on grass, and 18 of 24 as a road underdog. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -138 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Toronto Blue Jays. The only thing worse than losing a one-game playoff, is needing extra innings, having to use multiple starters (and relievers), and suffering an injury to a key player in victory. This is exactly what happened to the Blue Jays when they beat the Orioles on Tuesday night on a walk-off, three-run homer by Edwin Encarnacion. The injured player is their closer, young Roberto Osuna, who says he was removed from the tie game only because of fatigue, but it sure didn't seem like that when he came out and he likely won't be available tonight in ALDS Game one. The Rangers will go with LHP Cole Hamels who not only is their ace this season, but also has a ton of post-season experience. And he's a winner in October-November as well, with a 7-5 record and 3.03 ERA over 15 playoff starts, including a 2.70 ERA in his only two starts as a member of Rangers' post-season team last year. The Jays have chosen Marco Estrada for the start in Game 1 today. And although he's been very solid lately, the Jays are 1-4 in his last five starts on five days of rest. Meanwhile, the Rangers have won 24 of Hamels' 32 starts this season. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-16 | Orioles +140 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles have made it into the post-season for the third time in five years, and there's no doubt they're a dangerous team led by a powerful lineup of big bats and the best ninth-inning stopper in the game (Zach Britton). They will now take that offensive power and relief talent into Canada for one game that will determine their entire season. And if they win and advance to the ALDS, a lot of people will be second-guessing Toronto's choice of starters. The Jays are going with RHP Marcus Stroman tonight instead of LHP Francisco Liriano. Those are the two choices they're facing with JA Happ, Aaron Sanchez, and Marco Estrada unavailable (and RA Dickey seemingly out of the rotation). Why will there be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking if Toronto is sent packing? Well, for one, Stroman is a losing pitcher (9-10) with a 4.37 ERA and who had gone 0-5 in the month of September. Second, if that vaunted O's lineup has one weakness, it's southpaw pitching as Baltimore batted a league-low .234 vs. lefties this season. The Jays lost three of Stroman's four starts vs. the Birds in 2016 and the O's just took two of three here at the end of September. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the San Diego Chargers. New Orleans fell to 0-3 on the young season with a home loss on Monday night to Atlanta. But San Diego’s not exactly doing much better, as its only win came against the 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. We’ll grab the points with New Orleans on Sunday, as it falls into a system of mine which is 15-0-1 ATS since 1986. What we want to do is play on road underdogs of more than 3 points, if they’re 0-3 on the season, and matched up against an opponent with a losing record. Moreover, San Diego is a dreadful 53-72 ATS at home off a pointspread defeat, including 0-7 ATS since 2014. Take New Orleans. NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always….Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Orioles -133 v. Yankees | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the New York Yankees. It seems like it's never easy for the Baltimore Orioles. If they had won their game yesterday here in the Bronx, the O's would already be with a Wild Card slot and could be going for home field in the one-game playoff today. But they blew a seventh-inning lead and so instead they're in a win-or-go golfing situation where they also have to hope for some help from other games. The good news is that the Yanks will send rookie RH Luis Cessa to the mound for this ninth start today (17th appearance). Cessa's ERA here at Yankee Stadium is almost two runs higher than it is on the road (5.12 vs. 3.27) in the same number of starts (four). Of course, O's RHP Kevin Gausman's road numbers are considerably worse than those back in Baltimore, but he's making the most important start of his career and we think he'll be up to the task. And he's 2-0 with a 2.64 ERA in five daytime games this season (vs. 6-12 and 2.88 in 24 under the lights). The Yankees are 2-6 in their last eight games vs. a right-handed starter. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Mets v. Phillies -145 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. The Mets locked up a Wild Card spot - their second consecutive post-season appearance - and as a result, they will rest Noah Syndergaard today so that the ace is available for the one-game playoff at home. That means rookie RH Gabriel Ynoa will get just his third start of the season today (he also has seven relief appearances) and when you look at the youngster's numbers you notice that he's allowed 21 hits in less than 14 innings with six walks. That's an indication that the 23-year-old Dominican hasn't learned how to mix his pitches yet as he's obviously been grooving too many fastballs - something you can't do at this level. If the Mets are successful in their one-game playoff, don't expect to see Ynoa get any starts from here out. The Phillies will send out RHP Jerad Eickhoff for their finale and no doubt the second-year starter would love to add a 12th victory to his 2016 ledger. That's no small task on this team and it sets Eickhoff up nicely for perhaps a breakout campaign with the team next year. In six career starts vs. the Mets, Eickhoff has never allowed more than three runs and he owns five quality starts against them. Take the Phillies. MLB Roadkill. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Titans v. Texans OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 25 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Houston/Tennessee game, as it falls into 74-37, 97-68 and 81-53 Totals systems of mine. Both of these teams have had identical combined scores for their two previous games, as each team combined (with its opponent) to score 27 points last week, and 31 points two weeks ago. But off those two low-scoring games, I look for a very high-scoring game in Houston, on Sunday. Indeed, games between two teams that each failed to score more than 10 points in their previous game, with over/under lines greater than 40, have gone 'over' the total 76.7% of the time since December 1996. We saw an example of this last week, when we had our top play on the 'over' 41.5 in the Buccaneers/Rams game (after the Bucs (7 points) and Rams (9 points) failed to score more than 10 points in their previous game). I look for another high-scoring game on this Sunday, especially given that Tennessee has gone 'over' the total 85 of 143 times after scoring 13 or less points. Take the 'over.' NFL Total of the Month. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Browns +8 v. Redskins | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Washington Redskins. The Browns are winless on the season, with an 0-3 record, while Washington is 1-2, following its first win of the season last week, at New York. Unfortunately for the 'Skins, they're in an awful situation at home vs. Cleveland on this Sunday. Since 1986, NFL home teams, favored by more than 3 points, with a losing record, are an awful 0-15-1 ATS when matched up against 0-3 opponents. Additionally, the Redskins fall into negative 4-24 and 21-58 ATS systems of mine that go against certain losing teams early in the season, as well as a negative system (33% ATS) which fades certain big favorites with porous defenses (Washington surrenders 30.66 ppg). Take the Browns + the points. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons. Last week, Atlanta went into New Orleans and upset the Saints, 45-32, as a 3-point underdog. Meanwhile, Carolina was upset at home, 22-10, by the Minnesota Vikings. I look for the Panthers to bounce back on this Sunday, and get a road win in Atlanta. One of the reasons I want to go against the Falcons is that they just scored 45 points. Unfortunately, teams off upset wins in which they scored 40 or more points have burned money when they’ve been installed as an underdog of +2 or more points the following week. Since 1980, they’ve covered just 24.5% of the time. That doesn’t bode well for the Falcons on Sunday. Moreover, teams that won 83% or more of their games the previous season have covered 67.3% of the time off an upset home loss since 1981. Finally, NFC South division home teams have covered just 36.1% of their games off a straight-up win since 2002. Take Carolina. NFL Road Warrior. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Wyoming +6 v. Colorado State | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Colorado State. Last week, Wyoming was upset, 27-24, as a 6-point favorite by Eastern Michigan. That was the Cowboys' 3rd straight ATS defeat. Meanwhile, Colorado State covered its 3rd straight in a 7-point loss at Minnesota (as a 17-point underdog). I look for Wyoming to bounce back off its upset loss, as it falls into several of my best "bounce-back" systems, with records of 83-31, 88-27 and 121-42 ATS. Additionally, teams off 3 straight ATS losses have covered 70.4 % vs. Conference foes off a loss, if that foe is also off 3 straight ATS wins. Moreover, Wyoming has cashed 62% as a road underdog off an upset loss since 1980, and has also cashed 76.1% the last 22 years on the road when playing with revenge against a foe off a loss. Finally, Colorado State has been horrid as a favorite vs. revengers that don't have either a winning record or a winning ATS record, as it's covered just 18 of 51. Take Wyoming + the points. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Blue Jays -111 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. J.A. Happ is 20-4 on the season, and has a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts. But his season would be for naught if the Blue Jays can't get into the MLB Playoffs as a wild card. Thus, tonight's game is his most important start of the season, given that Toronto and Detroit are tied in the loss column for the final playoff berth. Toronto has dropped three straight, including a 5-3 loss last night to open this 3-game series. And it's scored just 5 runs combined in its last three games. But the Jays are an awesome 20-7 after scoring 3 runs or less in two straight games, and also a perfect 8-0 on the road after scoring 3 runs or less in three straight games. And they're also 3-0 this year vs. Boston when Happ has started. Boston will hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez, and Boston is an awful 1-7 at home this season with Roridguez on the hill. That, of course, isn't much of a surprise since Rodriguez' home ERA is a dismal 6.10. He's also 1-3 in his career vs. the Jays, with a 6.85 ERA. Take the Blue Jays. MLB High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Middle Tennessee State -16 v. North Texas | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders minus the points over North Texas. Last week, the Mean Green upset Rice, 42-35, as a 7-point underdog. But off that upset win, I look for a big letdown here, at home, as a double-digit underdog. Indeed, North Texas falls into negative 6-54 and 61-142 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins. Moreover, the Mean Green have been horrid off upset wins. Since 2005, they're 0-17 straight-up, and 4-13 ATS following an outright win as an underdog (and 1-10 ATS in conference games)! Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has been at its best as a road favorite, as it's 21-4 SU and 17-7-1 ATS the past 12 seasons. And it's also cashed 7 straight as a favorite of -11+ points vs. foes off a win. Take the Blue Raiders minus the points. Conference USA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Wisconsin v. Michigan -10.5 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Wisconsin. The Wolverines have been installed as a big favorite over Wisconsin, and it may look tempting to grab the points with the undefeated Badgers. After all, they've already won outright as underdogs vs. LSU and Michigan State. Unfortunately for Wisky, unbeaten teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record have been awful away from home when getting 8+ points. Since 1980, they've covered just 39% of the time (and just 23% if they're playing away from home in back to back games). Even worse: Michigan is averaging 52 ppg on offense (more than 21 ppg better than Wisconsin), and home favorites that average 50+ points have covered 59.2% since 1980, including 64% if they average more than 21 ppg than their opponent. Finally, Jim Harbaugh's teams have gone 26-10 ATS when favored by more than 3 points. Lay the points with Jim Harbaugh's men. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Illinois +20 v. Nebraska | Top | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Nebraska, as Illinois falls into 64-25 and 57-26 ATS systems of mine. Nebraska comes into this game ranked among the Top 15. The 'Huskers have a 4-0 record, and are also 3-0-1 ATS after defeating Northwestern last week, 24-13, as an 8-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Illini were blown out, 34-10, at home by Western Michigan, as a 3-point underdog in their previous game. But I look for Illinois to bounce back on Saturday. One of the things I like to do is play on double-digit conference road underdogs following a 20-point SU and 20-point ATS blowout loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win, which also has a winning ATS record on the season. Dating back to 1980, our underdogs in this situation have cashed 65% of the time. Additionally, the Illini had last week off, and they've been super when playing with rest. Since 1980, they've cashed 78% as road underdogs in Big 10 games following a week off. Finally, Nebraska is a wallet-busting 5-19-2 ATS since 1980 when playing a rested opponent, if Nebraska, itself, is unrested. Take Illinois. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Oregon State v. Colorado -19 | Top | 6-47 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Oregon State. Colorado is off to a terrific 3-1 start this season. And its only loss was 45-28, at #4-ranked Michigan two weeks ago. But the Buffs covered the spread in that game (they're 4-0 ATS this year), and actually led the Wolverines, 21-7, after the first quarter, and 28-24 early in the 3rd quarter. Unfortunately, Colorado's QB, Sefo Liufau, sustained an injury after throwing his 3rd TD pass to give the Buffaloes that 28-24 lead, and was replaced by freshman QB Steven Montez two series later. The Buffs never scored again in that Michigan game, but Montez threw for 333 yards and three TDs last week at Oregon (and ran for 135 yards and a 4th TD), in Colorado's 41-38 upset of the Ducks (as a 13.5-point underdog). It's unclear who will start this week under center for Colorado, as Liufau is not fully healthy. But Montez was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week, so, regardless which QB is on the field, we're going to back the Buffaloes. For technical support, consider that double-digit home favorites with a winning SU/ATS record, that won outright as double-digit road underdogs in their previous game, have covered 78.1% since 1985 vs. conference foes! Finally, Oregon State has covered just 3 of its last 14 games off a pointspread win. And it's also 3-13 ATS its last 16 conference games. Take the Buffaloes minus the points. NCAA Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Mets -184 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. Veteran RH Bartolo Colon goes for his 15th win of the season this afternoon and if he gets it, it would be the ninth time he's reached that milestone and certainly not many starters can say that. And the 43-year-old probably couldn't ask for a better match-up in which to get that milestone. Colon has two wins already against the Phillies this season which brings his career total victories over them to an even 10 (in 18 starts). Colon has not eclipsed 100 pitches in a start since August, so he should be plenty strong heading into his final start of the regular season. The disappointment for Colon would be the fact that this start in all likelihood takes Colon out of the running for the starting assignment in the Wild Card game should the Mets hang on and get to the post-season. For the Phillies, this will be a bullpen game as RH reliever Phil Klein gets his second spot start of the season and just the fourth of his career. Klein and his 12.15 ERA on the season get the opportunity today because the Phils have decided to shut down Jake Thompson. With their win on Friday, the Mets are 42-17 in the last 59 meetings. Colon has a .633 career win percentage in day games (81-47) vs. .568 in night games. Take the Mets. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Florida -10.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Vanderbilt, as Florida falls into 157-73 and 166-80 ATS systems of mine. Last week, Vanderbilt went into Western Kentucky, and upset the Hilltoppers, 31-30, as 9.5-point underdogs. That upset win, though, sets up the Commodores in several negative systems of mine, including one with a negative 68-154 ATS record since 1980. And this spot against the Gators will be especially difficult, as I expect Florida to be in an ornery mood after blowing a 21-3 halftime lead in Knoxville last week. Florida has been solid over the years on the road in SEC Conference games. Dating back to 1982, it has covered over 60% of the time (67-44-1 ATS). And Vandy has been awful at home vs. foes off a loss, as the Commodores have covered just 32 of 81 games. Finally, over the last 36 seasons, SEC Conference teams have covered just 28% of the time as home underdogs following an upset win over a non-conference foe. With Vandy on a 12-game losing streak at home to the Gators (4-8 ATS), we'll fade the Commodores and take Florida minus the points. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 46 h 3 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Stanford, as Washington falls into 183-113 and 87-29 ATS systems of mine. Last week, Stanford came back in the game's final minutes to defeat UCLA, 22-13, while Washington downed Arizona, 35-28. That was Stanford's 15th win in its last 16 games (and 7th straight Pac-12 road win). But I think the Cardinal's streak ends here, in Seattle. Statistically, the biggest difference between these two teams is on offense. The Huskies are averaging a whopping 45.75 ppg, while Stanford's offense has only generated 25.0 ppg. And faithful followers know I love playing on College teams that can score. Washington also plays this game with revenge from a 31-14 loss at Stanford last season. And revenge-minded home teams have cashed 75% of the time since 1981 if they average more than 20.5 ppg on offense than does their opponent, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS win. Look for Chris Petersen's men to hand Stanford its first loss of the season. Take the Huskies! NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-16 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves 'under' the total. The Braves prepare to play their final weekend at Turner Field as they will move to SunTrust Park in Cobb County next season and unfortunately the only positive vibes surrounding these last few games of 2016 is in fact that good riddance they'll say to their old ballpark. There hasn't been much to celebrate this season, that's for sure, but RHP Josh Collmenter, who gets his final start of the season is likely happy to have a job. Collmenter has provided the Braves with exactly what they wanted when they acquired him from the Cubs to fill a void in their injury-depleted rotation. The veteran, who had spent most of this season in the Diamondbacks' bullpen, has won both of his starts and looks to make it three in a row tonight. For the Phillies (who also have little to celebrate as the season winds down), RHP Jeremy Hellickson makes his final start of the season, and likely his last with the Phillies. Hellickson is set to be a free agent and given his strong performance in 2016, he will likely be offered multi-year contracts from other teams. Take the 'under.' NL Total of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-16 | Cubs v. Pirates -105 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Chicago Cubs. With literally nothing left to play for (they've locked up home field and won over 100 games), the Cubs will start to rest some of their regular starters in preparation for the long post-season road to the World Series. Tonight, they will give LHP Rob Zastryzny his first MLB start. Zastryzny has pitched out of the bullpen exclusively for Chicago this season with seven bullpen appearances and he was a combined 10-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 24 games (23 starts) at Triple-A and Double-A as well. Expect to see just a small sampling of Zastryzny and a lot of the rest of the Cubs relievers tonight as Arrieta, Lackey, Lester and Company get the evening off. For the Pirates, RHP Ivan Nova will attempt to close his up-and-down season on a high note. After stinking things up in the Bronx, Nova came to Pittsburgh and immediately became one of their top starters, going 7-1 with an ERA around 2.5 in his first eight starts with the Pirates. But he's cooled off in his last two and no doubt would like to show the Pirates (and the rest of the league) that he deserves a starting job next year (Nova will be a Free Agent at the end of the season). Pittsburgh's won 20 of 29 vs. lefty starters this season. Take the Pirates. Mound Mismatch Massacre. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-28-16 | Dodgers -167 v. Padres | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -167 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. In a script that appropriately enough seemed to come straight out of Hollywood, on Sunday the Dodgers won their fourth-straight NL West Crown. Not only did the pennant-clinching win take place in front of a sold-out Dodger Stadium crowd of over 50,000, but it also came on the same night that legendary announcer Vin Scully called his last game at Chavez Ravine (Scully will not work any post-season games). Now the Dodgers will finish up the regular season here in San Diego followed by games in San Francisco as they attempt to secure home field in the NLDS against the Nationals. With the recent returns of Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, and Scott Kazmir, it remains to be seen whether rookie RHP Jose de Leon will remain in the rotation, however the youngster has an important start in front of him tonight. De Leon's first career victory was against the Padres in his MLB debut at home, and he'll look to duplicate that tonight at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Dodgers are 43-20 in the last 63 meetings and 7-3 in the last 10 in San Diego. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-16 | Rays v. White Sox -166 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. At the All-Star Break, it looked like White Sox LHP Chris Sale was a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young with a whopping 14 wins in 18 starts and a 3.38 ERA. At that point, a 20-win season seemed like a given for the southpaw ace. But here we are with just one week to go, and Sale has just 16 victories to his credit. Although his ERA has been better in the second half, Sale has only managed two wins (with six losses) in his 12 post-break starts. He won't get to 20 wins, but if he can win tonight and then perhaps get a chance on closing day (Sunday), Sale could at least reach 18 for the first time in his career. Tonight he has a great chance to pick up victory number 17 as the Rays visit Chicago for the first time this season. Sale faced them in St. Pete back on April 15 and had his best start of the season - and his only complete-game shutout, his first of a league-leading six complete games in 2016. The Rays will turn to RHP Alex Cobb who has now had four starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, although he was able to go slightly longer in his pitch counts in starts 1-3, Cobb suffered a major regression in his last outing as he allowed seven runs on nine hits in just 1 1/3 innings. Heading into Monday, the home team is 6-3 in the last nine meetings. Take the Sox. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-16 | Mets v. Marlins +110 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the New York Mets. The tragic and untimely death of their superstar pitcher - Jose Fernandez - has put a dark cloud over an otherwise mostly successful season for the Marlins (they've already improved on their 2015 campaign). After the cancellation of their game against the Braves on Sunday, the Marlins will try to get back to the business of baseball tonight with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. It will be up to the players, and especially LHP Adam Conley to help the home fans heal today and perhaps a win over their Division Rivals from New York - as meaningless as that may seem in the scheme of things - will help fill Marlins Park with some positive feelings. Conley will go to the hill for the 25th time tonight opposite a starter who is old enough to be Fernandez's father in RHP Bartolo Colon. Conley will need to keep his emotions in check, and the Mets will have to play like their post-season life depends on it - which it does. Conley has faced the Mets three times in his career (twice in 2016) and he has thrown quality starts in each of those, allowing just two earned runs in a combined 19 innings. The Marlins are 10-2 in Conley's last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Miami. MLB Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-16 | Rangers v. A's -104 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have recently locked up their second straight AL West Crown - and fourth in the last seven seasons, and now they're trying to secure home-field advantage as well. Despite their overall success, the Rangers will have some decisions to make regarding their post-season rotation, including what they're going to do with today's starter - RH Colby Lewis. Coming into tonight, Lewis has had two almost-identical starts since returning from the DL about two weeks ago, and unfortunately that's not a good thing as neither of them was very good. Lewis has allowed six earned runs in 10 2/3 innings since coming back from a strained lat muscle, and he's also given up seven walks and four homers in those two outings. For the A's, another glimpse of the future of their pitching appears to be bright as rookie RH Jharel Cotton has looked very impressive in his three starts so far. The former 20th-round draft choice of the LA Dodgers has allowed just three ER on 11 hits in 18 innings with 11 strikeouts and just two walks. Texas is 4-9 in their last 13 road games vs. teams with a losing home record. Take the A's. Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 41.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs and Los Angeles Rams to go ‘over’ the total. The Rams’ offense has been missing in action so far this season. After getting shut out, 28-0, by San Francisco in its opener, it only mustered 9 points last week, though it still managed to defeat Seattle, 9-3. If there’s a silver lining in this week’s matchup vs. Tampa Bay, it’s that the Bucs only scored 7, themselves, last week, in a 40-7 blowout loss at Arizona. Given that both offenses couldn’t score 10 points last week, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the ‘under’ in this contest. But that likely would be the wrong move. Indeed, since 1980, in matchups between two teams that each failed to score 10 points in their previous game, the ‘over’ has cashed 57.3%. Even better: if our over/under line was 38 points or higher, then our stat improves to 62%. I look for a high-scoring game on Sunday. Take the ‘over.’ Total of the Month. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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09-25-16 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total. The Red Sox enter the last week of the regular season having locked up a playoff spot and in position to win their second AL East in the last four seasons (2013). When you add 2007 to that you realize that the last two times the Sox have won the East, they've hoisted the World Series trophy come November. And things couldn't be setting up any better for the Sox after they swept the Orioles over four games in Baltimore early in the week then traveled south for a weekend series against the Rays. They'll finish up the season next weekend back at Fenway after a trip to the Bronx. Saturday night, the Sox made it 10 wins in a row and now they go for their second series sweep in a row against RHP Jake Odorizzi. Boston will turn to LHP Eduardo Rodriguez who hopes to perform better than the last time he pitched here back on June 27. That one was Rodriguez's worst start of the season as he allowed nine runs on 11 hits in just 2 2/3 innings. Rodriguez has faced the Rays three times in his career, and each time he did, the runs were plentiful. The two teams have plated 47 total runs in those three meetings. The over is 9-2 in the Rays' last 11 home games. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-16 | Vikings v. Panthers -7 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Minnesota. In their last game, the Vikings upset division rival Green Bay, so I look for a letdown on this Sunday. Minnesota falls into negative 30-75 and 73-139 ATS systems based on that upset win over a division foe. And it's also 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS on the road as an underdog after defeating the Packers in their previous game. Even worse: the Vikes are 5-18 ATS off an outright win as a home dog in their previous game, including 1-11 ATS if their ATS win percentage is .500 (or better). Finally, the Panthers are a super 22-8-1 ATS at home their last 31, including 9-1 ATS vs. winning teams, and 11-1 ATS vs. foes off a pointspread victory. Take Carolina to blow out Minnesota. NFL Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | California v. Arizona State -3.5 | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over the California Golden Bears, as Arizona State falls into 102-38, 107-35, and 82-25 ATS systems of mine. Last week, California upset the Texas Longhorns, 50-43, as a 7.5-point home underdog. But off that upset win, I expect a major letdown, on the road on Saturday night, in Temple. Indeed, the Bears have covered just 16 of 42 off upset wins, including an awful 3 of 19 when playing a competitively-priced game with a pointspread less than 7 points (and 1-9 ATS on the road). That doesn't bode well for California on Saturday. And neither does the fact that the Bears have given up 39.67 ppg this season. California gave up 31 to a horrible Hawaii team in its opener (a 51-31 win, but 1.5-point ATS loss), and then gave up 45 points in a 5-point loss (but 1/2 point cover) to San Diego State in its second game. For technical support, consider that teams off upset wins, that surrender 38.5+ points per game, are a horrid 25.6% ATS over the past 36 seasons vs. conference foes off straight-up wins (including 0-13 ATS if our play-against team (here, California) gave up more than 14 points in its upset win, and also covered the spread 2 games back)! Since 1984, Arizona State is 11-0 ATS as home favorites vs. conference foes that pulled an upset the previous week! Take the Sun Devils. Pac-12 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Stanford v. UCLA +3 | Top | 22-13 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over the Stanford Cardinal. UCLA comes into this game 2-1 straight-up, but 0-3 ATS, while Stanford is perfect SU and ATS this season. The knee jerk reaction might be to play against UCLA here, but consider the following: Since 1981, at Game 4 forward, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 72.4 percent of the time if they were winless ATS, not favored by 7+ points, and their opponent was 100% perfect ATS! Even better: UCLA has dominated as home underdogs (or PK), and when matched up against foes not off a loss, the Bruins have gone 29-11-1 ATS since 1981. Look for the Bruins to upset the Cardinal on Saturday night. Pac-12 Dog of Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -2 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over South Carolina. Last week, the Gamecocks moved to 2-1 SU/ATS this season with a 20-15 win over East Carolina, while the Wildcats defeated the New Mexico State Aggies, 62-42, to notch their first win of the season. I look for Kentucky to make it two straight on this Saturday evening, as they fall into 123-54 and 338-236 ATS systems of mine based on their blowout win. Additionally, single-digit home favorites off a win the previous week, in which they scored 60+ points, have cashed a staggering 74% of the time since 1980 vs. unrested conference foes. Finally, Kentucky is a terrific 79% ATS since 1980 as a home favorite off a SU win, if its foe has a winning pointspread record. Take the Wildcats. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -8 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Oklahoma State, as Baylor falls into 58-24, 97-51 and 94-44 ATS systems of mine. Baylor comes into this game with a 3-0 record, but has yet to cover the pointspread. It should break through with an ATS win this week. Indeed, since 1980, undefeated teams, with a 3-0 (or better) record, have covered 75% of the time as a favorite of less than 16 points, if they were winless ATS on the season. That bodes very well for the Bears on Saturday. Additionally, the Bears are a superb 25-3 straight-up and 21-7 ATS at home the past 6 seasons, while the Cowboys are an awful 1-13 ATS as road underdogs, priced from +7.5 to +11.5, against Big 12 foes. Take Baylor. Big 12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Braves v. Marlins -142 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Atlanta Braves. By almost any measure, 2016 has been a very disappointing season for LHP Wei-Yin Chen. Signed in the off-season by the Marlins to a 2-year contract worth $28 Million, Chen has only managed five wins in his 20 starts with a 5.04 ERA. Injuries have no-doubt played a huge part in Chen's struggles in his first season in South Florida, as the 31-year-old missed almost two months with a sprained elbow. But there is some reason for optimism heading into next season. In his first start back from the DL last Monday, Chen looked very good, as he allowed just four hits in 4 1/3 innings with three strikeouts and no walks here at home against the Nationals (although he did give up three runs). He was on a pitch count in that one and will likely be again tonight as he faces the Braves for the fourth time this season. After losing Chen's first three starts here at Marlins Park (his first three outings of the season), the Marlins have gone 7-0 in Chen's last seven home starts (going back to April 20) coming into tonight. Take the Fish. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | New Mexico State v. Troy -20 | Top | 6-52 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over New Mexico State. The Trojans stunned Southern Mississippi, 37-31, last week, as 9.5-point road underdogs. Off that big upset win, I look for Troy St. to blow out New Mexico State on Saturday. One of the things I love to do is play on home favorites of a touchdown (or more), if they're off an away upset win as a dog of more than 7 points. Such teams are 95-55 ATS since 1980! That's one reason I favor Troy. Another is that New Mexico State has covered just 25% of the time since 1999 off a loss, if it's playing on the road vs. .666 (or better) foes. Lay the points with the Trojans. Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Georgia Southern v. Western Michigan -7 | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Georgia Southern. This is an interesting match-up between two undefeated teams that both have 3-0 records. But the Broncos have played the MUCH TOUGHER schedule, as they have defeated two Big 10 opponents (Northwestern, Illinois) on the road, while the Eagles' best win was against South Alabama. We played on Georgia Southern in that 24-9 victory (as a 13.5-point favorite) over South Alabama, but that was a GREAT situational spot for the Eagles, as South Alabama was ripe for a letdown following its upset win (as a 28-point underdog) vs. Mississippi St. But in Georgia Southern's other two games (vs. Savannah State and Louisiana Monroe), it failed to cover the spread by an average of 13.5 ppg. And its average pointspread differential on the season is a poor -8.5 ppg. In contrast, W. Michigan has covered by an average of 12.5 ppg, and falls into a 143-79 ATS 'momentum' system of mine. Finally, the Broncos play this game with revenge from a 43-17 loss in Statesboro last year, and Sun Belt Conference teams (like Georgia Southern) are an awful 36% ATS the past 17 seasons vs. non-conference foes that play with revenge from a double-digit loss. Lay the points with the Broncos. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Penn State v. Michigan -17 | Top | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Penn St. The Wolverines are scoring a whopping 53 ppg, while Penn State is surrendering 27.33 ppg. Those two facts portend a Michigan blowout on Saturday afternoon, as teams that average 48.34+ ppg are 65.4% ATS at home vs. foes that give up more than 25.5 ppg (at Game 3 forward). Even worse for the Nittany Lions: they've struggled vs. elite competition since 1996, as they're 18-43-1 ATS vs. foes that outscore their opponents by 13.8+ ppg, including 0-13 ATS as dogs of +6 or more if the Nittany Lions are off a win. Take Michigan. |
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09-24-16 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina -6.5 | Top | 36-37 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Pittsburgh. After losing its opener, as a 3.5-point underdog to Georgia, the Tar Heels have ripped off 2 straight blowout wins: 48-23 vs. Illinois, and 56-28 vs. James Madison. I look for UNC to make it 3 in a row vs. a Pitt team which has given up an average of 42 ppg in its two FBS games this season (and 30.33 ppg, overall), as the Panthers fall into negative 73-143 and 63-123 ATS systems of mine. More bad news for Pitt: it has covered just 27% of the time on the road the past 36 seasons, if its defensive scoring average was greater than 30 ppg. Take North Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Colorado State v. Minnesota -17 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Colorado State. These two teams met last season at Colorado State, and the Gophers won, 23-20, in overtime. I look for Minny to win back to back seasons vs. the Rams, as Colorado State is a dreadful 5-26 SU and 8-23 ATS since 1986 on the road vs. .400 (or better) non-conference foes, including 0-5 ATS with revenge. Additionally, Minnesota falls into 177-78, 290-193 and 192-107 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine, based on its 30-point win in its last game vs. Indiana State. Lay the points with Minnesota. |
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09-23-16 | Rangers -149 v. A's | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Oakland Athletics. Rangers LH ace Cole Hamels will attempt to shake the AL West curse that he seems to have been cast on him recently when he faces the A's in Oakland tonight for his 31st start of the season. Hamels' last four starts have all been against Division opponents and over that span the normally reliable southpaw has allowed 21 runs on 25 hits in just 18 innings (a 10.50 ERA). Prior to that, in starts against the Indians, Rays, Tigers, Rockies, Orioles, Royals, and White Sox, Hamels was brilliant. The good news about those last four vs. AL West opponents is that although Hamels got roughed up in all but one of them, the Rangers managed to win three, and so now they are 5-1 in Hamels' last six outings and 15-4 in his last 19 going back to early June. One of the differences between this game and Hamels last start (which also happened to be against the A's) is that tonight he will be pitching in Oakland - a place he's been quite fond of in his two career starts there. Hamels is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in just under 13 innings at the Coliseum. Texas is 16-6 in Hamels' last 22 road starts. Take the Rangers. MLB Road Warrior. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-16 | Royals v. Indians -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. The Indians are closing in on their first Division Crown in ten seasons, and what will make this title especially sweet for them is how they have persevered in the second half despite some major pitching injuries. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar were instrumental in getting Cleveland into the lead before the All Star Break, but now both aces have been shut down for the remainder of the season (Salazar is hoping to come back for the playoffs). That's meant that pitchers like RH Mike Clevinger - who goes to the mound for his ninth start of the season tonight - have had to step up and fill in for some pretty good stars. And the rookie has done just done that, having posted a 2.92 ERA in his last nine appearances - which includes four starts - covering 24 2/3 innings. For the Royals, LHP Jason Vargas was on a big league mound last Saturday for the first time in 14 months, after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He allowed a run on two hits over three innings vs. the White Sox and he'll likely be on a strict pitch count again tonight. The Indians are second in runs scored vs. southpaws this season with 206 and their .272 BA vs. lefties is fourth-best in the A.L. as well. Finally, the Royals are an awful 6-23 as a road underdog priced from +125 to +175 this year, while the Tribe is 24-8 as a home favorite priced from -125 to -175. Take Cleveland. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-16 | Red Sox v. Orioles -104 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Boston Red Sox. The great thing about being a starting pitcher in a pennant race is that you can effectively erase the poor performances you had earlier in a season if you can pitch well enough to win games down the stretch against your Division Rivals. Such is the 2016 story of the Orioles' RH Ubaldo Jimenez. Saying that Jimenez didn't pitch well in the first half would be a huge understatement as the veteran went 5-9 with a 7.38 ERA in 18 games including 17 starts before the All-Star Break. He lost his starting job in early August, making three more appearances out of the bullpen before being re-inserted on August 25. Now he has that chance to make everyone forget about that disastrous first-half if he can win games like the one tonight against the first-place Red Sox. So far, Jimenez has made the most of his second chance as a starter in 2016, as the O's have gone 4-1 in his last five starts including his first complete game of the season in his first start of September in Tampa. RH Clay Buchholz gets the start tonight and like Jimenez, he is trying to show that he belongs in the rotation after being demoted earlier. But Buchholz has a career 5.10 ERA in 10 appearances at Camden Yards. And Baltimore's 9-0 in Jimenez's last nine home starts vs. division rivals. Take Baltimore. MLB Roadkill. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-16 | Nationals v. Marlins -153 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Washington Nationals. The Nats road to their third division crown in the last five years has take a slight detour lately. First, no sooner had they figured they would likely go 3-0 this weekend in Atlanta, thus almost sealing the deal in the NL East, the worst team in the NL decided to play some serious ball and the Braves took two of three. Now DC has to come to South Florida and face a starter who has absolutely owned it. The Marlins might shut down RH ace Jose Fernandez once they've been eliminated from the Wild Card Race (which could be soon), but for tonight at least, the Marlins' RH ace will try to add one more victory over the Nats this season. So far, he's been unstoppable as he is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA vs. them in 2016 and on top of that, he will be pitching on an extra day's rest. Tanner Roark comes into this start for the Nats looking for a career-best 16th win but it could be difficult as he's already faced the Fish four times in 2016, and the veteran RHP is just 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in just under 22 innings. Miami is 32-5 in Fernandez's last 37 home starts. Take the Marlins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-16 | Giants v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. The Marquee match-up of what many people consider to be the two best left-handers in the game is taking place for the third time this season (and first since April 15) with the Dodgers having won both of the earlier Mad-Bum vs. Kershaw games. The L.A. ace returned to action recently from a bulging disk and in his first start in more than two months on September 9, Kershaw definitely had some cobwebs he needed to shake off. However in his second start back, last Wednesday in inter-league action in the Bronx, Kershaw was brilliant, holding the Yankees to one hit in five innings with five strikeouts and no walks. Despite the fact that this is a very important series, the Dodgers likely won't take chances with their ace and Kershaw may only go five or six innings tonight. And there-in lies perhaps the biggest difference between these two teams right now. L.A. can rely on its bullpen, as their relievers have posted a league-best 2.24 ERA this month. The same can't be said of the Giants, who have had all sorts of problems holding down leads late in games, having gone to a closer-by-committee after relieving Santiago Casilla of the role. L.A. has won Kershaw's last five starts vs. the Giants. Take the Dodgers. MLB Roadkill. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-16 | Bucs v. Cardinals -6.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 89 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as the Cardinals fall into 49-23, 35-15, 146-71 and 116-60 ATS systems of mine. Bruce Arians was none too pleased following his team's putrid performance last Sunday night vs. New England, and went so far as to name specific individuals at his post-game press conference. Certainly, there was a lot of blame to go around. Idiotic penalties, poor defense on 3rd downs, and poor execution on the potential game-winning field goal were just some of the things to draw Arians' ire. But I have the utmost confidence Arizona will straighten those things out going into this 2nd game of the season. And if history is any guide, Arizona should blow out Tampa Bay, as .650 (or worse) teams off upset losses as 7-point (or greater) favorites have rebounded to go 68.8% ATS vs. foes off a win. Additionally, Arizona is 30-10 ATS at home in the regular season if it lost at home the previous game. Take the Cardinals. NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-16 | Marlins v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total. The Marlins felt they were in a position in late July to make a legitimate run for the post-season in the second half. And why not? As recently as July 27 the Marlins were sitting nine games over .500 and ahead of the Mets in the wild card race. And so they decided to get pitching help before the trade deadline. But they didn't have a lot to offer and didn't want to completely mortgage their future past this season, so Miami decided the would go for a mid-level starter rather than trying to land a star. They settled on Andrew Cashner from the Padres, shipping Carter Capps, Jarred Cosart and two minor leaguers to San Diego for the veteran RH. It hasn't worked out. Cashner has been awful since coming to South Florida, going 1-4 with a 6.13 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts. And as if his performances aren't bad enough without excuses, Cashner appeared to be suffering from a blister on his pitching hand in his last start, another disastrous outing as he lasted just two innings, allowing seven runs against the lowly Braves in Atlanta. The over is 7-1-1 in Miami's last nine road games. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-16 | Chiefs v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 88 h 49 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over Kansas City. When these two teams last met, in last season's Playoffs, the Chiefs whitewashed Houston, 30-0, as a 3-point favorite. Of course, if Houston had Brock Osweiler, Lamar Miller and Will Fuller (as they do now), the result surely would not have been so lopsided. We had a big play on the Chiefs in that game, but we'll switch gears and take the Texans to avenge that defeat. Since 1981, home teams have cashed 92% of the time if they previously met their opponent in the Playoffs, and lost that game, in blowout fashion, by 28+ points. Additionally, the Texans are a super 12-3 ATS as a favorite since 2014. Take Houston. NFL Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-16 | Dolphins +7 v. Patriots | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 87 h 7 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the New England Patriots. Kudos, of course, to Bill Belichick for going into Arizona minus his star QB and TE, and getting the upset victory. But off that win, we'll fade the Patriots on Sunday as a home favorite vs. Miami. Indeed, New England falls into a negative 42-89 ATS "letdown" system of mine based on its upset win over Arizona. That angle fades certain favorites that won straight-up as 6-point (or greater) underdogs the previous week. Even worse: NFL teams that won outright in Week 1 as underdogs of +5 or more points have burned $$$ in Week 2 when matched up against foes off a SU loss, as they've covered just 4 of 20 games since 1986. Take Miami + the points. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-16 | Ravens v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 59 h 50 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Baltimore Ravens. Last week, the Ravens bested Buffalo, 13-7, while Cleveland lost on the road to the Eagles, 29-10. Certainly, the Browns are a mess, but Baltimore’s win sort of obscured the fact that they only scored 13 points at home. And I’m not comfortable laying almost a touchdown in the NFL with a team that is hard-pressed to score points. Indeed, since 1980, favorites of -2.5 points or more are a horrid 12-36 ATS vs. opponents off a SU/ATS loss if our favored team didn’t score 14 or more points in its opening game. Even worse: notwithstanding last week’s cover, the Ravens are still a wallet-busting 1-10-2 ATS as a favorite since November 2014. Take the Browns. Underdog Shocker. Good luck as always…Al McMordie. |
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09-17-16 | Ohio State v. Oklahoma +3 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -125 | 117 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners over Ohio State. The Sooners stumbled out of the gate when they lost outright as a double-digit favorite in Week 1 to the Houston Cougars. But this is a team which went 11-2 last season, and opened this year ranked in the Top 5. The cupboard is far from bare for coach Bob Stoops. If Oklahoma hadn't lost to Houston it would have opened as the betting favorite for this game. But I believe that's created value for Oklahoma in this situation, and the Sooners fall into 61-15 and 127-63 ATS systems of mine. And one of the things I also love to do is play on "Power Home Dogs" in non-conference games -- that is, teams that won more than 75% of their games the previous season (and who don't have a losing record in the current season). Since 1980, these teams have cashed a whopping 75% of the time against opponents that have winning SU and ATS records. With the Buckeyes coming into this game a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS, we'll fade Urban Meyer's crew and take the Sooners on Saturday. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-16 | New Mexico State v. Kentucky -18.5 | Top | 42-62 | Win | 100 | 110 h 8 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over New Mexico State. Last week, the Aggies upset their cross-state rival, New Mexico, as double-digit HOME underdogs. But off that big, emotional win, I look for a letdown, as the Aggies will have to travel 1500 miles to play a road game against a non-conference foe. And, generally speaking, double-digit dogs off upset wins as double-digit underdogs have been money-burners over the past 36 years against non-conference foes. That doesn't bode well for Doug Martin's men in Lexington, on Saturday. And neither does the fact that the Aggies' best running back, Larry Rose III, missed their first two games, and his playing status is in doubt for this week, as well, as he is recovering from a hernia. It's true that Mark Stoops' squad has yet to win this season, or cover the spread. However, winless teams are an awesome 82% over the past 36 years when favored by 16+ points in non-conference games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win! Additionally, the Wildcats fall into an 80-33 ATS system of mine that also plays on certain double-digit favorites off an ATS loss. Take Kentucky. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-16 | Colorado v. Michigan -20 | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 111 h 43 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Colorado. The renaissance has happened in Ann Arbor faster than even Michigan's most diehard fans could have envisioned. Coach Jim Harbaugh was hired following the 2014 season, so with little more than 1 season under his belt at the Big House, he has his Wolves ranked in the Top 4 in the Country. The QB position was supposed to be one of the question marks for this season, but Wilton Speight was just named Big 10 Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 312 yards and four TDs against UCF last Saturday. Through 2 games, Speight has completed 70% of his passes for 457 yards, seven TDs, and just one interception. And he's ranked 7th nationally in QB efficiency. Surprisingly, he's tied (with John Navarre) for the most TDs in school history thru the first two games of the season! Michigan's also racked up 114 points in its two victories, and that's the most points a Michigan team has scored in the first two weeks in over 100 years! Overall, the Wolverines are 4th in the country in scoring offense, and have shown tremendous balance between rushing (425 yards) and passing (534 yards), which is always good to see. This week, they'll welcome Big 12 member Colorado to Ann Arbor, and I fully expect another blowout, as Michigan falls into a 142-78 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams that have scored a lot of points. Of course, it must be acknowledged that Colorado comes into this game off impressive 44-7 and 56-7 wins over Colorado St. and Idaho St. But neither of those games were played at the opponent's field. And the Buffaloes have been awful at an opponent's venue over the past 11 seasons, as they've won just 8 of 58 and have covered just 18 of those 58 games (including 0-13 ATS after scoring more than 31 points in their previous game). Lay the points with Michigan. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-16 | Florida State v. Louisville +2.5 | Top | 20-63 | Win | 100 | 109 h 46 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals over the Florida State Seminoles. These two teams met last season, and the Seminoles won, 41-21, as 6.5-point favorites. Overall, Florida State is 2-0 vs. the Cards since they began play as ACC Conference rivals, and 9-1 SU and 5-5 ATS dating back to 1981. Last week, Louisville erupted for 62 points at Syracuse, and that followed a 70-point outburst in Week 1 vs. Charlotte. Not surprisingly, the Cardinals lead all of college football with 754 yards per game, and 66 points per game. And Louisville's offense is quite balanced, as it ranks #3 in rushing (343 ypg), and #6 in passing (411 ypg). Faithful followers know that I absolutely LOVE playing on College Football teams that can score, and especially when they're installed as an underdog. Indeed, consider that teams (like Florida State) playing away from home against a revenge-minded foe which scored 122+ points in its previous two games are 0-13 ATS since 1980! And they've failed to cover by an average of 13.1 ppg. I used this angle twice last season, and easily won both times, including Oklahoma State's upset of then-#5-ranked TCU, 49-29, as 6.5-point underdogs. The Seminoles come into this game as the #2 team in the country. But for all of their storied success, they've struggled greatly against teams that can score. Dating back to 2006, the Seminoles are a pedestrian 15-14 SU vs. foes that average more than 35 ppg (even though they were favored in 21 of those 29 games), and a horrid 7-21-1 ATS. And they're 0-7-1 ATS their last 8 vs. foes that score more than 7.9 ppg than the Seminoles. Take Louisville. NCAA Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-16 | Akron v. Marshall -17.5 | Top | 65-38 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Akron, as Marshall falls into 170-74 and 61-15 ATS systems of mine, based on its 62-0 win last week against Morgan St, as well as a 65% ATS system (since 1980), which plays on home teams in non-conference games off wins by 60+ points. Indeed, last week, there were 3 teams at home (Michigan, Ohio St., Miami-Fla) that were off wins by 60+ points (and involved in non-conference games), and all 3 covered the spread. Even though Akron was in a great situational spot last week vs. Wisconsin, given that the Badgers were ripe for a letdown following their upset win over LSU, the Zips failed to capitalize, and were blown out 54-10. Akron QB Thomas Woodson was awful, and completed just 9 of 19 passes for a meager 108 yards. And the Zips' defense was massacred for the 2nd straight game. Admittedly, giving up 586 yards of offense to the Badgers can be excused, somewhat, since Wisky is a Top 10 team. But Akron also surrendered 386 yards and 24 points to the VMI Keydets (the same VMI team that only scored 17 points the next week vs. Morehead St). So, it seems as if Akron has been unable to find replacements for its 7 defensive starters from last season lost to graduation (including MAC Defensive Player of the Year Jatavis Brown). With Marshall having covered 71% of its non-conference home games since 1999, and Akron an awful 9-22 ATS as double-digit road dogs vs. foes off a win, we'll lay the points with Doc Holliday's men on Saturday. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-16 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners 'under' the total. After he came virtually out of nowhere to win 30 games and post an ERA right around three runs the past two seasons combined, to say the Astros' RH Collin McHugh has taken a step backwards would be quite an understatement. It's been more like a leap. In 29 starts, McHugh is 10-10 with an ugly ERA and WHIP of 4.86 and 1.49 respectively. Perhaps a start against the team that he had arguably his best outing of the season against will help McHugh end his regular season on a high note. On July 17 in this same ballpark, McHugh threw six shutout innings against the Mariners, allowing just four hits while striking out 10. But he may have a run support problem tonight. On Wednesday, two of the 'Stros most consistent hitters, superstar 2B Jose Altuve and 3B/SS Alex Bregman left the game early with apparent muscle injuries (Altuve to his oblique and Bregman to his leg). They have all but been ruled out for this game as of this writing, and the rest of the Houston lineup will have its hands full with RH Felix Hernandez who goes to the mound for his 22nd start of the season. The under is 5-1 in McHugh's last six starts after the team scored five or more runs in its previous game, and 59-26 in Seattle's last 85 after not allowing 3+ runs in any of its previous 3 games. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-16 | Blue Jays -165 v. Angels | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Los Angeles Angels. On August 17, Jays LHP JA Happ won his 17th game with an ERA just barely over 3.0 and looked like he would be the first to 20 wins and probably the AL Cy Young favorite at that point. However, in his four starts since then, Happ has struggled a bit, winning just one more game while seeing his ERA rise to 3.33. And Boston ace Rick Porcello has passed him in the win column, becoming the first to reach the 20 mark while becoming the clear favorite now for that Cy Young hardware. But Happ has other things on his mind as he no doubt is more concerned with helping his team get back to the ALCS than he is with personal accolades. And he has a huge chance to help his team tonight against the Angels and rookie RH Daniel Wright who gets his second start with Anaheim and just the fourth in his MLB career. Wright is auditioning for a job with the Halos next season, and as bad as this team's minor league pipeline is, he just might find himself on the roster come Spring despite an 0-2 record and 7.50 ERA in his 18 innings coming in. But tonight should belong to the Jays who are 21-6 in Happ's last 27 starts and 8-1 in his last nine vs. teams with a losing record. Take Toronto. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-16 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals 'under' the total. Jake Arrieta and Adam Wainwright may be considered the "marquee" pitchers on these teams, but it's arguably been LH Jon Lester and RH Carlos Martinez who have been the best - and most consistent - for their respective clubs, especially in the second half. Those two will face off this afternoon in a game that even the Cardinals would have to admit means much more to the home team than it does to the visitors from Chicago. Since the All-Star break, these two starters have a combined record of 13-1 (in 20 starts) and while Lester's ERA is considerably lower over that span than Martinez at 1.65, the latter has won his last four decisions (five starts), while allowing just seven earned runs in 34 innings (a 1.85 ERA). So there are few starters hotter than the 24-year-old Cardinal right now and while any game against the Cubs is a tough one, the Cards are hoping to improve their Wild Card chances with a win this afternoon. Both of these aces are also outstanding in day games with career 3.12 and 2.92 ERAs under daytime conditions respectively (vs. 3.62 and 3.58 under the lights). The under is 6-0 in Lester's last six and 8-1 in the Cards last nine vs. a LH starter. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-13-16 | Rangers v. Astros -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Texas. If the Houston Astros are going to win enough games in the final three weeks to clinch a playoff spot, they're going to have to do it with a depleted starting rotation. But the losses of regular starters Lance McCullers and Dallas Keuchel - both possibly for the rest of the season - will mean opportunities for some other arms on the roster. One of those is veteran RH, and former Washington National, Brad Peacock, who will go to the mound for his second start of the season this evening. Peacock has pitched well this season, albeit in limited action, with a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Tonight, he will work on an extra 2 days' of rest, and his teams have gone 7-1 in his last 8 games on extra rest. The Rangers will send RH AJ Griffin out for his 21st start, and despite some pretty ugly numbers, Griffin has gone 7-4 and the team has gone 13-7 in his outings thanks to some strong run support. Unfortunately, one cannot assume such run support will continue. For the season, his ERA on the road is a dismal 5.52, and his ERA vs. division rivals is 6.25. The recent trend for Griffin is also bad, as he has a 6.32 ERA over his last 3 starts. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-16 | Steelers v. Redskins +2.5 | Top | 38-16 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Back in the 1970s and 1980s, it was an almost automatic play to take a home underdog on Monday Night Football. Indeed, in the 1980s, home dogs were 37-15 ATS on Monday Nights. But things changed in the 1990s, and over the past 26 seasons, Monday Night home underdogs have burned money, going 64-71 ATS. All of this is fairly common knowledge. But what isn’t common knowledge is how well home underdogs have done in their season openers. Even since 1990, when home underdogs have gone 64-71, if one only played home dogs on Monday in their season opener, one would have gone 10-4 ATS. And dating back to 1980, that number improves to 14-4 ATS. But that’s not the best part. If one eliminates division rivalries, and only took home dogs in non-division games, then our 14-4 stat zooms to a perfect 7-0 ATS. That’s one reason I favor the Redskins in this game. Another is that the Steelers have never been a reliable road favorite. Since 1980, they’re 51-77 ATS as road faves, including 6-12 ATS their last 18. In contrast, the Steelers have made money as road underdogs, as home underdogs, and as home favorites, and they’re 252-205 ATS combined those other situations. Last season, the Redskins were 5-1 as home underdogs, and we’ll grab the points with Jay Gruden’s men. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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09-12-16 | Mets v. Nationals -135 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Mets. Attendance at Nats games hasn't been great lately, which is a bit strange since they are a first-place team with plenty of stars on the roster. Tonight will be no exception as the Redskins kick off their NFL season at home with a Monday Night match-up against the Steelers (about 10 miles from Nationals Park). There could be almost as many Mets fans in the stands here tonight as Nats fans especially when you consider they're one of the hottest teams in the Majors recently. Of course, most of those wins have come against the likes of the Marlins, Reds, and Braves (although they did take two of three from the Nats in Queens recently too). Tonight, they will come into DC where they have won just two of six this season. RH Rafael Montero will get his third start of the season for New York and although the Mets won both of his previous ones, Montero walked 10 batters in a combined 9 1/3 innings in those and he'll have to do better than that tonight to have a chance against this DC lineup. Washington's 45-19 this season vs. division rivals, and Mat Latos has a career 2.92 ERA vs. the Mets (Montero's career ERA vs. the Nats is 9.00). Take the Nationals. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over the New England Patriots. Last year, New England went 12-4 in the regular season, but fell to the Broncos at Mile High in the Playoffs. They'll be without their QB, Tom Brady, for this game, as he serves his suspension, so it's no surprise they're a substantial underdog at Arizona. I have several Opening Week systems I rely on, and two of my very best (25-4 ATS; 62-24 ATS) point to the Cardinals in this situation. And, certainly, I have no qualms about laying points with the Cardinals, who are 34-15 SU and 31-17-1 ATS their last 49 regular season games. Even better: early in the NFL season, home teams priced from -3 to -6.5 points have been 33-5 SU and 30-8 ATS in games projected to be high-scoring, with O/U lines at 46+ points. Look for the Cardinals to blow out New England. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-11-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +104 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants. Zach Greinke will start for the D-Backs this afternoon, and his first season in Arizona has continued a fantastic long-term trend. Greinke is simply the best in baseball when pitching at home, and especially as a favorite. In his career, he's now 97-37 as a home favorite (+41 games on the moneyline). With that as a backdrop, it's tough to make a case for the San Francisco Giants on Sunday. Matt Moore will be on the hill for San Fran, but the Giants are 4-9 in his 13 road starts, and his ERA is 4.61 away from home. Even worse: Greinke excels against San Francisco, as he's 9-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his career. Take Arizona this afternoon. MLB Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-11-16 | Bengals -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -107 | 62 h 3 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Jets. Last year, the Jets went 10-6, but they narrowly missed the playoffs, as Pittsburgh won the tie-breaker to snag the final playoff spot. This season, the Jets will open up as a home underdog in Week 1. Unfortunately for the Flyboys, home dogs are a dismal 10-20 ATS in Week 1 vs. non-division foes, if they had a .550 (or better) win percentage the previous season. Even worse: Cincy has been champing at the bit to get out on the field in a meaningful game since losing to the Steelers in the Playoffs (Cincy's 7th straight Playoff loss under coach Marvin Lewis). And the Bengals were a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road last year. Finally, Cincy falls into a 52-25 ATS Opening Week NFL system of mine, which plays on certain teams that had a winning record the previous year. Take the Bengals. NFL Road Warrior. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | Virginia Tech v. Tennessee -11.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 90 h 9 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Virginia Tech. This game will be played at Bristol Motor Speedway, 110 miles from Knoxville. And there should be 150,000 (mostly Tennessee) fans in attendance, which will shatter the current record for attendance at a college football game (115,109 (Notre Dame at Michigan, 2013)). Neither the Hokies nor the Volunteers were especially impressive last week. Tennessee trailed Appalachian State 13-3 at halftime, before putting the Mountaineers away, in overtime, 20-13. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech overcame four fumbles to get by Liberty, 36-13. I look for the Volunteers to blow out the Hokies, as Tennessee falls into 27-9, 29-7, 37-13 and 33-11 ATS systems of mine. Additionally, Tennessee is a solid 42-24-2 ATS off a pointspread defeat when playing away from home. It's true that SEC Conference teams were gawd-awful last week (4-8 ATS in non-conference games), but SEC teams have gone 147-88 ATS away from home against .500 (or better) teams in the regular season, if our SEC team was off a win, but an ATS loss. Look for Tennessee to win impressively in the "Battle at Bristol." Lay the points. Non-Conference Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | Giants -163 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants have fallen 4 1/2 games behind the Dodgers in the race for the NL West title, a position they've been pretty used to the last three seasons. But the chances of them winning another World Series as a Wild Card team this season (like they did in 2014) are very slim. If the Giants are going to catch L.A., they will need their starting rotation to step up in the last three weeks, and no one's performance will be more critical than RHP Johnny Cueto. Cueto has been outstanding in his first season in San Francisco, having posted a 14-5 record with a 2.92 ERA and league-leading four complete games in his 28 starts. And Cueto has been just as effective on the road this season as he has in his own pitcher-friendly venue, as he is 8-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 15 road starts (vs. 6-3 and 2.88 in 13 at AT&T Park. Tonight presents a great chance for Cueto to get victory number 15 on the season as the Giants have dominated this series lately, taking 11 of the last 13 meetings vs. the D-Backs. They're also 31-10 in the last 41 meetings in Arizona. Take San Francisco. MLB Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | UTEP +29.5 v. Texas | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 0 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Texas. Perhaps no team had a more important victory for its program in Week 1 than did Texas, which avenged a 38-3 loss to Notre Dame in the previous season, by winning a thrilling game, 50-47, in overtime. But even though the Longhorns were mightily impressive last week, we're going to fade them as big favorites this Saturday vs. the Miners. Indeed, since 1980, home teams off an upset win as a home dog (of at least 2.5 points) in Week 1, have burned money in Week 2 a whopping 80% of the time. And Texas has covered just 35.7% of the time over the past 36 years off an upset win, if their opponent is also off a win. Take UTEP + the points. |
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09-10-16 | Georgia Southern -12.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 69 h 59 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles minus the points over South Alabama. Last week, the Jaguars pulled the biggest upset when they stunned Mississippi St., 21-20, as a 27.5-point underdog. Can the Jaguars make it two in a row? Not likely. Consider that Sun Belt Conference underdogs of more than 3 points, are an awful 5-21 ATS off an upset win, if they're matched up against a conference rival also off a win, including 0-7 ATS at home. Additionally, the Jaguars fall into negative 20-66 and 61-140 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins. Take Georgia Southern. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Fla) -24 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Florida Atlantic. Last week, Miami scored 70 points in its 70-3 blowout win over Florida A&M, while the Owls won 38-30 over Southern Illinois. And that offensive explosion by Miami has triggered several of my best systems, with records of 12-0, 83-26, 152-71 and 332-229 ATS since 1980. Let's take a look at our 12-0 angle. It hasn't lost in 36 years, and it simply plays on home favorites, priced from -20 to -40 points in Week 2, after scoring 63+ points in their season opener. That bodes very well for the Hurricanes on Saturday. And so does the fact that Miami annihilated the Owls, 44-20, last season, as Florida Atlantic is an awful 9-20 ATS when playing with revenge (including 1-8 ATS off a SU win). Take Miami to rout the Owls. NCAA Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | Akron +24 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-54 | Loss | -106 | 85 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips + the points over Wisconsin. Last week, the Badgers were a 12.5-point underdog, but stunned then-5th-ranked LSU, 16-14, at Lambeau Field. Wisconsin was unranked entering the game, but now sits at #10 in the AP Poll. Unfortunately for the Badgers, favorites that won as a 6-point (or greater) underdog in their season opener have only covered 24.3% of the time in non-conference games the past 36 years! And teams that won outright as a double-digit dog, but scored 17 points or less in the victory, have gone just 57-86 ATS their next game. These two teams have met twice in the previous 13 years. Wisky was favored similarly in both of those games (-24.5 in 2003; -26.5 in 2008), and each time, the Badgers failed to win by more than 21. Take the points with Akron. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | Wake Forest +5 v. Duke | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 85 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Duke. It's true that Wake Forest struggled last week in its 7-3 win over Tulane. But don't expect the Deacs to have a poor offensive showing this Saturday against the Blue Devils. Indeed, Wake Forest has scored at least 21 points in each of the past 9 seasons vs. Duke (the only opponent against which Wake Forest has done that). Last week, Duke took care of business vs. an out-manned NC Central team, as the Dukies won 49-6 against the Eagles. But this will be a much more difficult test for David Cutcliffe's crew, especially as it will have to play this season with a redshirt freshman (Daniel Jones) at quarterback. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, their senior QB, Thomas Sirk, reinjured his Achilles tendon last month, after initially tearing it in February. Sirk led the Devils in rushing (803 yards) AND passing (2625) last season, and accounted for 24 touchdowns. Overall, the Devils returned just 11 starters (Wake returned 16), and also lost to graduation their best player on defense, Jeremy Cash. Cash recorded at least 100 tackles in each of the past 3 seasons, including a staggering 18 tackles for loss last year, and will be suiting up for the Carolina Panthers this fall. Wake Forest falls into 53-19 and 27-9 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in Week 2, and we'll grab the points with the road underdog on Saturday. ACC Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. Last night, the Jays dropped their 4th straight game, which placed them 2 games behind the division-leading Red Sox. With just 22 games left, the Jays certainly have their backs against the wall, as the Orioles and Tigers now sit just 1 game back in the loss column. This afternoon, the Jays will hand the ball to J.A. Happ, who has led them to victory in 20 of 27 starts this season (and 17 of 22 when installed as a favorite). Happ's ERA at home has been especially good (3.05 ERA), and he's also been strong against Boston in his career (3.86 ERA). Meanwhile, his mound counterpart this afternoon, Eduardo Rodriguez, has struggled in his career vs. the Blue Jays, with an ERA north of 8 runs per game. And in his lone start this season, Rodriguez gave up 5 runs in 5 2-3 innings in a loss at Fenway. Both pitchers will be working today on an extra day of rest. Unfortunately for Boston, Rodriguez has only won 25% of his starts this season with extra rest, while Happ has led the Jays to victory in 70% of his starts this season with extra rest. Take Toronto. Mound Mismatch Massacre! |
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09-10-16 | Central Michigan v. Oklahoma State -21 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -102 | 82 h 54 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Central Michigan. The Cowboys returned 10 offensive starters from last season's team which averaged over 39 points per game. And Okie State picked up where it left off last season by busting out for 61 points last week vs. Southeastern Louisiana. And when the Cowboys get rolling offensively, they tend to keep it going, as they're 34-7 ATS after scoring 50+ points in their previous game, including 8-0 ATS since November 17, 2012. This week, Mike Gundy's men will welcome the Chippewas to Stillwater following the Chips' 49-3 victory last Thursday against the Presbyterian Blue Hose. However, I expect it to be a rude welcome, as Mid-American Conference teams have been huge money-burners when playing away from home vs. the Big 12, as they’re 4-41 SU and 13-28 ATS the past 21 years. Take Oklahoma St. High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | NC State v. East Carolina +5 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 62 h 60 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over NC State. Both of these teams opened their 2016 campaign with blowout victories. NC State walloped William & Mary, 48-14, while East Carolina crushed Western Carolina, 52-7. The Wolfpack have been installed as a road favorite, but they've been dreadful over the years when favored on the road. Since 2002, NC State has covered just 5 of 20 times as road chalk. Meanwhile, East Carolina has been at its best as underdogs in the regular season vs. non-conference foes. Since 1985, the Pirates are 72-46 ATS including a perfect 8-0 ATS since 2013. Finally, East Carolina falls into 96-39 and 60-12 ATS systems of mine. Take the Pirates + the points. |
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09-09-16 | Mets v. Braves +110 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. Atlanta RH ace Julio Teheran missed about three weeks starting at the beginning of August due to a lat muscle strain. When he first came back on August 19, Teheran had some obvious rust and he struggled for two starts. But in his last two since then on August 30 against the Padres and September 4 in Philadelphia Teheran has looked like the dominant starter that he was for most of the first half. More importantly, Teheran received some solid run support and won both of those while allowing just two runs on 11 hits in 13 innings. The Mets pitching injuries continue, so they will have to turn to rookie RH Robert Gsellman for his third start of the season. This will be just Gsellman's second road start and despite the Braves poor season, this may be a very tough spot for the rookie as the Mets are just 2-5 in the last seven meetings with the Braves. And though there aren't many pretty numbers for Atlanta this season, the Braves are 7-2 in their last nine games vs. teams with a RH starter as well as 5-2 in their last seven games following a loss. Take Atlanta. ELITE INFO. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 108 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos over the Carolina Panthers. Last year, the Carolina Panthers had a dream season. They won 17 of their 19 games, with their only losses in Week 15 vs. Atlanta and in the Super Bowl vs. these Broncos. The Panthers were favored in their final 12 games of last season, including by 4.5 points on a neutral field vs. the Broncos, so it’s not really a surprise that they’re favored on the road in this game, given that Denver has quarterback issues following the retirement of Peyton Manning. But the Broncos have always been a strong home team — they’ve won 33 of their last 39 in Denver. And they’re a fantastic 40-15 ATS at home since 1981 when not laying more than 2 points. That all bodes very well for the Broncos, but this is the clincher: since 1985, teams playing with revenge from a Playoff upset loss are an awful 0-9 ATS early in the season, in Games 1, 2 or 3, when playing on the road. Take Denver + the points. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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09-07-16 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks 'under' the total. Things could be looking up for the Dodgers. Way up as a matter of fact. They have a four-game lead in the West now, Yasiel Puig is back with the team (and acting in a responsible manner), and Rich Hill is apparently over his blister issues. But the biggest news of all is that they're scheduled to get the best pitcher in baseball back this weekend as Clayton Kershaw prepares to make his return just in time for the final three-week push. Tonight, however, it will be RHP Brock Stewart getting the fourth start of his career. Stewart came into his start against the Cubs last Sunday with an 11.25 ERA but pitched the game of his life, holding one of the top offenses in baseball SCORELESS over five innings. The Dodgers won that one 1-0 in a no-decision for the 24-year-old, so he will be seeking his first-ever MLB win tonight in what could be his last start of the season. And I think he will pitch very well. I also like D-Backs LH Robbie Ray to have a solid game, as his road numbers (3.94 ERA; 1.31 WHIP) are much better than his home numbers. Finally, L.A. is 58-39 'under' as a home favorite this year, including 12-2 'under' when priced between -125 and -150. Take the Dodgers and D-Backs 'under.' |
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09-07-16 | Giants v. Rockies -116 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Francisco Giants. If the Rockies job in the last six weeks of the season is to play the role of "Spoiler" then they're doing a pretty darn good job so far. Since the middle of August, Colorado has taken two of three series from the Cubs, Dodgers, and twice from the Nationals. Then to begin this series, they blanked the Giants, 6-0 on Monday behind a brilliant performance (complete game) by starter Chad Bettis. They'll try to make it up to the Dodgers for taking two of three from them last week by taking the second of three against San Francisco tonight. And with their next 10 games all coming against the Padres and Diamondbacks, a Wild Card spot is still not entirely out of the question. Tonight it will be LH veteran Jorge De La Rosa getting his 22nd start of the season (he also has three relief appearances). De La Rosa will try to match last year's total with his ninth win and he will be going opposite a rookie in RHP Albert Suarez who will be making his first start against the Rox and first at Coors Field (he pitched here in long relief back in April). He's 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in eight games (five starts) on the road this season. Take Colorado. MLB Elite Info. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-16 | Astros v. Indians -184 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over Houston. Cleveland dropped the first two games of this series, but I look for it to win tonight behind RH Carlos Carrasco. He's been brilliant over his last 3 outings (1.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and has dominated Houston in his career (2.13 ERA; 0.86 WHIP). With the Indians at 18-6 when playing with revenge from 2 straight home losses, we'll take the Tribe tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates -124 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis. Yes, the Buccos have dropped eight straight games, while St. Looey has won 3 in a row. But Pittsburgh has the much better pitcher on the hill tonight. Jameson Taillon has a superb 3.36 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and even though he lost 2 of his last 3 starts, he gave up just 3 runs in 14 innings in those 2 games combined. Meanwhile, Mike Leake's ERA on the road this year is a dismal 4.55, and his teams have gone 12-15 vs. Pittsburgh in his 27 starts. After scoring 12 + 9 runs over the first two games of this series, I look for the Cards to get shut down tonight, as they're a poor 21-35 (minus 26 games on the moneyline) after scoring 9+ in back to back games. Take Pittsburgh. |
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Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-15-16 | South Alabama v. Arkansas State -5 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 40 h 10 m | Show |
10-15-16 | New Mexico State v. Idaho -4 | Top | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 38 h 11 m | Show |
10-15-16 | Blue Jays -130 v. Indians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
10-15-16 | Nebraska v. Indiana +3 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 54 m | Show |
10-15-16 | Wake Forest +21.5 v. Florida State | Top | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 47 m | Show |
10-15-16 | Iowa -11 v. Purdue | Top | 49-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
10-13-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants +116 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
10-11-16 | Nationals v. Dodgers -235 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
10-10-16 | Cubs v. Giants -128 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10-10-16 | Indians v. Red Sox -140 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Bills v. Rams +1 | Top | 30-19 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Falcons v. Broncos -4 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 58 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Jets +9 v. Steelers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
10-08-16 | Notre Dame v. NC State -2.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 62 h 49 m | Show |
10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 60 m | Show |
10-07-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
10-06-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -138 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
10-04-16 | Orioles +140 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Orioles -133 v. Yankees | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Mets v. Phillies -145 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Titans v. Texans OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 25 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Browns +8 v. Redskins | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Wyoming +6 v. Colorado State | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Blue Jays -111 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Middle Tennessee State -16 v. North Texas | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Wisconsin v. Michigan -10.5 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 14 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Illinois +20 v. Nebraska | Top | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Oregon State v. Colorado -19 | Top | 6-47 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Mets -184 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Florida -10.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 46 h 3 m | Show |
09-29-16 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
09-29-16 | Cubs v. Pirates -105 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
09-28-16 | Dodgers -167 v. Padres | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -167 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
09-27-16 | Rays v. White Sox -166 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
09-26-16 | Mets v. Marlins +110 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Rangers v. A's -104 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 41.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Vikings v. Panthers -7 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
09-24-16 | California v. Arizona State -3.5 | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Stanford v. UCLA +3 | Top | 22-13 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
09-24-16 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -2 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -8 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Braves v. Marlins -142 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
09-24-16 | New Mexico State v. Troy -20 | Top | 6-52 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Georgia Southern v. Western Michigan -7 | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Penn State v. Michigan -17 | Top | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina -6.5 | Top | 36-37 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Colorado State v. Minnesota -17 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
09-23-16 | Rangers -149 v. A's | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
09-22-16 | Royals v. Indians -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
09-21-16 | Red Sox v. Orioles -104 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
09-20-16 | Nationals v. Marlins -153 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
09-19-16 | Giants v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Bucs v. Cardinals -6.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 89 h 24 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Marlins v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Chiefs v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 88 h 49 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Dolphins +7 v. Patriots | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 87 h 7 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Ravens v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 59 h 50 m | Show |
09-17-16 | Ohio State v. Oklahoma +3 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -125 | 117 h 40 m | Show |
09-17-16 | New Mexico State v. Kentucky -18.5 | Top | 42-62 | Win | 100 | 110 h 8 m | Show |
09-17-16 | Colorado v. Michigan -20 | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 111 h 43 m | Show |
09-17-16 | Florida State v. Louisville +2.5 | Top | 20-63 | Win | 100 | 109 h 46 m | Show |
09-17-16 | Akron v. Marshall -17.5 | Top | 65-38 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
09-16-16 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
09-15-16 | Blue Jays -165 v. Angels | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
09-14-16 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
09-13-16 | Rangers v. Astros -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
09-12-16 | Steelers v. Redskins +2.5 | Top | 38-16 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
09-12-16 | Mets v. Nationals -135 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Patriots v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 7 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +104 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Bengals -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -107 | 62 h 3 m | Show |
09-10-16 | Virginia Tech v. Tennessee -11.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 90 h 9 m | Show |
09-10-16 | Giants -163 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
09-10-16 | UTEP +29.5 v. Texas | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 0 m | Show |
09-10-16 | Georgia Southern -12.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 69 h 59 m | Show |
09-10-16 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Fla) -24 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show |
09-10-16 | Akron +24 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-54 | Loss | -106 | 85 h 25 m | Show |
09-10-16 | Wake Forest +5 v. Duke | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 85 h 21 m | Show |
09-10-16 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
09-10-16 | Central Michigan v. Oklahoma State -21 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -102 | 82 h 54 m | Show |
09-10-16 | NC State v. East Carolina +5 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 62 h 60 m | Show |
09-09-16 | Mets v. Braves +110 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 108 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
09-07-16 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
09-07-16 | Giants v. Rockies -116 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
09-07-16 | Astros v. Indians -184 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
09-07-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates -124 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |