Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #710 @New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the New Orleans Pelicans at home over the Memphis Grizzlies. New Orleans is coming off back to back losses but it's understandable considering they faced the Clippers and Thunder. Now they'll be dialed in and focused for a very winnable game against a very short-handed Memphis team that already beat the Pelicans earlier this season. The Grizzlies are down to just 9 players on their bench and have some major minute guys out for their 3rd straight game. Role players step up for a game, sometimes two but there is a reason for them being role players and not starters. With their injuries the Grizz have turned to center Marc Gasol to carry the load and he's done so with 44 combined points his last two games. He won't have a big game here with Anthony Davis defending him or rotating over as the help defender in the low post. Not to mention the Grizzlies last two wins have come against the Magic and Lakers who obviously aren't the league's elite teams. New Olreans is 6-1 SU their last seven at home with the lone loss coming via the Clippers. The Pelicans should exploit a Grizzlies defense that is allowing opponents to shoot over 47% their last five games. Lay the points! |
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks UNDER 44 | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 30 m | Show |
#375/376 – Under 44.5 – Carolina @ Seattle, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET – Seattle’s offensive performance last week was an epic fail to say the least. They scored just 5 points against a middle of the pack Tampa defense. They were held to under 250 total yards as their offensive line continues its poor showing. We have the Seattle OL rated as one of the worst in the NFL. They will have problems again this week against a very solid Carolina defensive line who is 3rd in the NFL with 32 sacks. Russell Wilson will be running for his life again this week after getting sacked 6 times last Sunday @ TB. The Panther defense has only allowed one of their last five opponents to top 20 points and that was last week vs a potent Oakland team. The Raiders scored 35 points, however one of those TD’s was a pick 6 AND Oakland only tallied 356 total yards on 5.2 YPP which are both well below their season averages. We don’t expect Carolina to do much against a Seattle defense that ranks #1 in scoring allowing just 17 PPG on the season. This defense has given up 18 points or fewer in 7 of their 11 games this season. Seattle’s defense tends to ramp it up late in the year as 12 of their last 14 December games have finished UNDER the number. Low scoring affair here as we side with the UNDER. |
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12-04-16 | Florida State -10 v. George Washington | Top | 67-48 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida State -10 over George Washington, Sunday at 5:00 PM ET The scheduling situation heavily favors FSU here. GW played yesterday. They took on a bad South Florida team (ranked 237th) at home and trailed most of the game. The Colonials were down 2 with just a few seconds left and made a scrambling 3-pointer at the buzzer to win by 1. They had 3 players play 32+ minutes and only went 7 deep. Now just 24 hours after that win they must take the court again vs a very solid Florida State team that has been off since beating Minnesota on Monday. It was a game the Noles led by 18 in the second half and won by 8. Unlike GW, they are well rested for this one. Florida State’s only loss this season came by just 3 points to a solid Temple team on a neutral court. The Seminoles are better offensively (25th in eFG% - GW is 146th in the same category) and better defensively (48th in defensive eFG% - GW is 260th in the same category). GW is 5-3 on the year including a home loss by 6 to Penn State – the 13th rated team in the Big Ten. We like Florida State to win this one easily. |
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12-03-16 | Virginia Tech +11 v. Clemson | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Hokies (+) over Clemson Tigers, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET |
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12-03-16 | Wolves v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 125-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #704 @Charlotte Hornets (-6) vs Minnesota TWolves, 7PM ET - Today we play ON the Charlotte Hornets over the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. These same two teams just met a few weeks back with the Hornets winning by 7-points on the road as a 2-point chalk. Now they are laying just 6-point at home which is not a big enough of an adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Wolves are off a game last night in New York in which 4 of five starters played 30+ minutes so fatigue becomes a factor. Minnesota has been over-valued by Vegas all season long, hence the 6-13 ATS record overall and 2-8 SU road record. Charlotte has the much better efficiency differential ratings as they are top 10 in the NBA while the Wolves are 16th in the league in the same category. Minny is just 1-8 ATS their last nine versus teams with winning records and the Hornets have covered 5 of the last six meetings. We'll lay the points with Charlotte at home today. |
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12-03-16 | Wichita State -11 v. Colorado State | Top | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Wichita State -11 over Colorado State, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET Wichita comes in at 6-2 with their 2 setbacks coming on a neutral court against two of the nation’s best (Louisville & Michigan State). Both games were tight in the 2nd with WSU having a shot to win. Louisville extended the margin late winning by 10 while the Spartans topped the Shockers by 5. Wichita has played a tough schedule and have some big wins over solid teams. They topped LSU by 25 and Tulsa by 27. They are rested and ready here after getting back from their tourney in the Bahamas last Friday, they have since only played Southern Nazarene earlier this week. In that game, a 30 point win, head coach Gregg Marshall spread out the minutes with 11 players playing at last 10 minutes. Colorado State played a huge rivalry game on Wednesday of this week upsetting Colorado. This inexperienced team – lost all 5 starters – has played a very easy schedule besides that CU win. They only other team they played ranked inside the top 140 was Stanford and that was a loss. This is a shaky shooting CSU team (290th in eFG% & 313th in 3 point FG%) that will be playing one of the top defenses in the nation. Wichita ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency. They also turn teams over at a rate of almost 23% which is bad news for a CSU team that turns the ball over themselves over 20%. Wichita is the MUCH better team and catching Colorado State in a bad spot. Lay it. |
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12-01-16 | Panthers v. Red Wings +105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Red Wings Money Line (+) over Florida Panthers, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET: Game #62 |
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11-30-16 | Pacers v. Blazers OVER 209 | Top | 109-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
OVER 209 Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trailblazers - 10PM ET We will play OVER in the Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trailblazers game. These are two of the fastest paced teams in the league (Portland 7th, Indiana 9th) in terms of possessions per game and that's a solid base for our OVER wager. The Blazers average 109.7PPG on the season which is the third highest scoring average in the NBA. Indiana is 'average' or 15th in the league at 103.5PPG. Indiana isn't as efficient offensively as the Blazers but the Pacers will get their opportunities against a Portland defense that is LAST in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, allowing 1.141 points per possession. Indiana recently played a Nets team that is very similar to Portland in terms of pace and DEFF and that game ended with 215 total points and Indiana put up 118 of those without Paul George who is out tonight too. Portland has scored or allowed 111+ points in 11 of their last twelve games and in their last three contests they've combined with their opponents to total 244, 223 and 262 total points! When playing with 2 days rest this year the Pacers totaled 223 points in a game while the Blazers totaled 231 in a game in the same scheduling situation. Remember the league average for points scored in a game is 207 so asking these two teams to score a few more points isn't a stretch. Last season in two meetings these two combined for 213 and 234 total points. The play here is OVER! |
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11-30-16 | Purdue v. Louisville -6 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Louisville -6 over Purdue, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET – We’re catching Louisville at home after their first loss of the season which is a good spot in our opinion. They’ve had off since last Friday when the Cards blew a 22 point lead and lost by 3 to Baylor in the championship game in the Bahamas. That loss was definitely not a bad one as the Bears are no stiff as they had already beaten Michigan State by 15 and a very good Oregon team by 17. The other games in that tourney the Cards beat two top 100 teams with wins over Old Dominion and a very good Wichita State team (won by 10). This is Louisville’s first home game since Nov 17. They are 3-0 here with all wins coming by at least 30 points. Purdue has played only one top 100 team this year and lost that game at home to Villanova. This will be their first true road game against a team that is 67-8 at the Yum Center since the start of the 2013 season. They are also facing a Louisville team that is 21-4 their first game following a loss. Purdue has solid shooting numbers on the season but they’ve faced an easy schedule with only one defense ranking in the top 80 in defensive efficiency. Now they face a Cardinal defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 4th in eFG% allowed. The Boilers have struggled with turnovers this year coughing it up on over 21% of their possessions (258th nationally) and that’s bad match facing Louisville’s constant pressure defense. The Cards are rested and motivated after losing last Friday. Purdue is solid, but walking into a hornet’s nest in their first road game. Lay it. |
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11-29-16 | Pistons +135 v. Hornets | Top | 112-89 | Win | 135 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DETROIT PISTONS We like the Pistons plus the points over the Hornets on Tuesday and expect an outright win by the Pistons. Let's start with scheduling first in our analysis. This is a bad spot for Charlotte as they are coming off a game last night and this will be their 4th game in just a five day span. Not to mention the Hornets are off a win last night on the road in Memphis which will have them a little 'fat' for tonight's contest. Historically speaking teams playing their 4th game in five nights have won just 35% of the time the past two years. Detroit meanwhile comes into this game with several days rest AND are off a blowout loss in their previous game at Oklahoma City which will have them focused tonight. Don't be frightened off of this bet by the Pistons current road record of 1-8 SU as 5 of those eight losses have come against some of the best teams in the league. Charlotte is not in that category yet and they are in a bad spot here. Good spot to play on the Pistons! |
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11-28-16 | Celtics -5 v. Heat | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS - We like the spot to play on the Boston Celtics minus the points at the Miami Heat. The 7-6 Celtics have gotten off to a slow start this season after going 48-34 a season ago. But a lot of that is due to a couple injuries to Al Horford and Jae Crowder who have missed 9 and 8 games each respectively. With those two back in the lineup the Celtics are starting to look like a better version of last year's squad that had the 8th best point differential in the NBA away from home. Boston has ripped off 3 straight road wins and 4 of their last five with the lone loss coming by a point in New Orleans. Even with their injuries the C's are 10th in the NBA in road point differential of +.2PPG. Miami on the other hand is just 2-6 SU at home this year and are clearly in a rebuilding phase with a younger roster. The Heat are 19th in the NBA in home efficiency differential and their lone two wins have come against the Bucks and Kings who have a combined losing record of 14-18. Boston is solid in this role as a small chalk with a 4-1 ATS record this year and are 5-2 SU this season when coming off a loss (to the Spurs). Celts have covered 5 of the last six on this court and will notch an 8+ point win here tonight. |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Broncos are the play here minus a short number at home. The Chiefs have won with smoke and mirrors all season long and might be the most overrated team in the league at 7-3. Kansas City has been outgained by 7 of their last nine opponents. Consider this, the Chiefs starting QB, Alex Smith is averaging just 6.88 yards per passing attempt which is BELOW Rams QB Case Keenum! The drastic difference between these two teams is defensively where the Broncos rank as one of the very best in the league and are now healthy on that side of the football. Conversely the Chiefs are in the bottom half of the NFL in most defensive categories. Denver is off a bye week (15-5 ATS off a bye last 20) and well rested leading up to this contest and have dominated this rivalry for the past several years. The Broncos have won 8 of the last ten meetings overall and covered 5 of the last seven. A recent comparison you can make on this game is this: KC went to (4-6) Carolina just two weeks ago and was +3.5 points which is the same number as today's game in Denver against a superior Broncos team. The Chiefs will be exposed today for exactly what they are which is an average team. Lay it! |
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11-27-16 | Stanford v. Seton Hall -3.5 | Top | 66-52 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -3.5 over Stanford, Sunday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU We used this talented Seton Hall team @ Iowa and they picked up an easy cover and a 9 point win as an underdog. They return 4 starters from a team that was 25-9 a year ago. They are 4-1 on the season with their only loss coming 81-76 to Florida on a “neutral site” in Kissimmee, Florida. Stanford is 5-1 and their lone loss was in this tourney as well but came by double digits to Miami FL. Stanford was just 15-15 a year ago and lost two key senior starters off that team. We have a shooting mismatch in this game. Seton Hall is one of the better shooting teams in the nation with a 56% eFG percentage which is 27th nationally. They are solid both inside and outside the arc. The Pirates have 91, 91, 90, 82, and 76 points in their 5 games. They are facing a Stanford team that has scored 67 or less in 4 straight games and scored under 60 in 2 games already this season. The Cardinal are a poor shooting team with an eFG% of 47% which ranks them 273rd in the nation. This is a small number and we don’t foresee Stanford keeping up offensively in this one. We’ll take Seton Hall. |
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11-25-16 | Clippers v. Pistons UNDER 200 | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
We will play UNDER in the LA Clippers @ Detroit Pistons game tonight. The league average total points scored per game in the NBA this season is 207.4PPG. Quite frankly we're surprised the number on this game is higher than 200 total points for several key reasons. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play as the Clippers average 96.7 possessions per game (16th) while the Pistons average 94.4PPP which is 23rd slowest. Defensively both are two of the best in the league when it comes to points per possession as the Pistons allow just 1.022 points per possession (4th best) and the Clippers give up just 1.004PPP which is 2nd best in the NBA. These same two teams met on Nov 7th in L.A. and that game had the Clippers winning 114-82 but combined they totaled just 158 field goal attempts which is well below the league average of 171 per game. The Clippers shot well above their season average of 47% by hitting over 53% of their FG attempts overall and over 52% from beyond the arc (39% on the season). What's surprising about the Clippers shooting so well against the Pistons in the last encounter too is the fact Detroit is 2nd in the NBA in Opponent FG% against allowing just 42.7% (BTW...The Clippers are 1st). With two rested teams anxious to 'D' it up this sets up as an EASY UNDER! |
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11-25-16 | Texas A&M v. Virginia Tech +2.5 | Top | 68-65 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +2.5 over Texas A&M, Friday at 5:30 PM ET We look for Va Tech to be a surprise team in the ACC this year. Buzz Williams took over this program in 2015 and went just 11-22. Last year they improved to 20-15 and this year they’ve started the year with a perfect 4-0 record. Yesterday they creamed a solid New Mexico team 92-72 with 4 players reaching double digit points. They also played 8 guys more than 10 minutes so they should be fairly fresh here. This team returns the majority of their key players from last year’s 20 win season. Seven of their top nine from last year’s rotation return and this team is very good offensively. They’ve reached at least 80 points in every game this year and currently rank 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG%, and 7th in turnover %. They face a very young Texas A&M team that lost four senior starters from last year’s NCAA tourney team. They have 7 underclassmen in their rotation. The Aggies also played yesterday beating Cal State Northridge. A&M has already lost a game at home to USC this year as they are feeling their way through this early campaign with so many new faces in the line up. The Ags are a poor 3-point shooting team (31%) and only hit 62% of their FT’s. While Texas A&M was very good last year, they are in a bit of a rebuilding mode early this season while the veteran Virginia Tech team is already hitting on all cylinders. Take Tech on Friday. |
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11-23-16 | Blackhawks +140 v. Sharks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Blackhawks Money Line (+) over San Jose Sharks, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET: Game #71 |
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11-23-16 | Raptors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors plus the points over the Houston Rockets. We like good teams off losses which is the case with the Raptors tonight in Houston. Toronto is just 1-4 SU their last five games and are coming off a loss against the Clippers but they step down in talent tonight when facing the Rockets. In their last four losses the Raptors have been beaten by the 3 best teams in the league in the Clippers, Warriors and Cavaliers. When they played in Cleveland they were +5.5 points and are now catching 4 from a Rockets team that isn't nearly as good as the Cavs. Toronto is one of just 10 teams in the league that have a positive point differential on the road (+1.3PPG) this season which is slightly lower than their season numbers a year ago of +2.5PPG which was 5th best. In other words this team plays well on the road! Houston is 4-1 SU at home this but not one of those four wins have come against teams with above .500 records on the road. Last year these two teams played a pair of tight games and considering the circumstances we like a more hungry Toronto team to get a road victory. |
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11-22-16 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 220.5 | Top | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA 10* #507/508 OVER 221 Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Lakers, 10:35PM ET - Yes, it's a big number but we'll still play 'OVER' in the Thunder vs. Lakers game. These two teams are two of the fastest paced teams in the league this season with the Lakers 5th at 99.8 possessions per game and OKC 6th at 99.5PPP. That tells us both want to get out and run, play transition offense and push tempo. These two teams recently played Brooklyn who is the fastest paced team in the league (similar to both of these) and those game resulted in 229 total points and 243 total points. The Lakers have scored more than 107 points themselves in 4 of their last five games and in 2 of those contests they put up 125 and 126 points. In their last four games the Lakers defense (or lack of) has allowed 125, 118, 116 and 118. The Thunder and Westbrook can easily put up 120 in tonight's contest as they've scored 105 or more in 5 of their last six games. Based on offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency ratings our predictive models suggests a total of 226 or more tonight. |
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11-21-16 | Celtics -113 v. Wolves | Top | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS - We like the Boston Celtics minus the point at Minnesota tonight. The Celtics just need to win this game and the T'Wolves continue to be very over-rated by the oddsmakers (4-8 ATS) so we feel they'll get it done rather easily. Boston has played one of the toughest schedules to date and are still a respectable 7-6 SU on the season. The T'Wolves on the other hand have played one of the easiest schedules to date and are just 4-8 SU. Boston was one of the better road teams in the NBA last year when it comes to efficiency ratings and had an overall average point differential of .9PPG which was 8th best in the league. Looking at Minny's home schedule we see wins over Philadelphia and the Lakers who were the two worst teams in the NBA a season ago and one other victory over Memphis who is just 4-10 this year. Not impressed! Boston on the other hand is 4-1 ATS as a favorite less than 6-points this season and take care of the teams they're supposed to. Take the Celtics! |
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11-20-16 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 42.5 | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
#471/472 – Over 42.5, Philadelphia @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET We took Seattle OVER the total last week @ New England and cashed in and we’re coming right back with it again this week. As we mentioned last week, Seattle’s defense is starting to get a big worn down. They’ve faced 293 offensive plays now over the last 4 games or an average of 73 per game. After their game vs Buffalo two weeks ago a number of defensive players noted that they didn’t have much left in the tank. Then they traveled to the east coast last week and played in another high scoring game vs New England. The last 3 weeks Seattle games have totaled 45, 55, and 56 points. While the defense has tired during this stretch, the offense is playing very well. Russell Wilson is now finally healthy and it’s showed with Seattle scoring 31 points each of the last 2 games. Philly’s defense has been up and down this year. They played very well at home vs Atlanta last week but coming into that one they allowed 24 or more points in 4 of their previous 5 games. The Eagle offense has scored at least 20 points in every game this year and it they get to that, this game should definitely go OVER. This is a low number in this situation. The weather is calling for possible light rain but very light winds which is key. This one goes OVER this number. |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars +6 v. Lions | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
#453 – Jacksonville +6.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Detroit is 5-4 but not nearly as good as their record in our opinion. They are getting outgained by an average of 30 YPG and their point differential is -1 despite their winning record. There are 17 teams in the NFL that have a better point differential that the Lions. This team is overvalued right now. While they should be favored over Jacksonville, laying 6.5 is too much. When Detroit wins, it’s close. Their 5 wins have come by margins of 1, 3, 3, 4, and 6 in OT. The Lions have been outgained in 5 of their last 6 games and this team simply isn’t good enough on either side of the ball to beat teams handily. Jacksonville has a worse record, but their numbers are better than Detroit’s. The Jags average 343 YPG offensively to Detroit’s 337. On defense there is a bigger gap with Jax allowing only 327 YPG (8th in the NFL) on just 5 YPP (5th in the NFL) while the Lions allow 367 (23rd) on 6 YPP (25th). Jacksonville has had a number of close losses this year including by 4 to GB, 3 to Houston, 5 to KC, and 2 to Baltimore. We think they keep this one close and have a shot to win outright. Getting nearly a full TD is definitely worth grabbing Jacksonville in this game. |
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11-19-16 | Warriors v. Bucks OVER 216 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
OVER 216 Warriors @ Bucks, 8:35PM ET - Let me ask you a question, not about gambling, but everyday life. When your spouse goes shopping do you want them to look for the best value or pay a premium price? Easy answer right. VALUE! Well in tonight's NBA card there is one wager that is offering us tremendous value and that's OVER in the Golden State Warriors versus Milwaukee Bucks game. Vegas opened that Total at 223.5 in most places and a few had as high as 225.5 which is DRASTICALLY higher than the current number which is hovering around 216. The league average points scored per game is 207 and now we're asking these two teams to score 10 more points than normal and one (GST) of the two is the highest scoring team in the league at 116PPG and the most efficient offensively at 1.153 points per possession. Golden State is coming off a game last night in Boston but they spread their minutes out so fatigue shouldn't be a factor here. Not to mention, in their two other games this year when playing the second night of a back to back they've averaged 220 total points. The Bucks had last night off and are 4-0 over this year when playing with 1 day rest and those contests have totaled an average of 218 points. Milwaukee had three straight game to start November where they scored 117 plus points, then had a 'grinder' in Dallas followed by three more games of 100+ before an ugly game on Thursday in Miami where they managed just 73 points. After that horrendous offensive showing they'll be extra motivated to play well here against one of the league's premier teams. Golden State has scored 116+ in 5 of their last six and should get to that number here meaning the Bucks just need to top 100 points which is highly likely. BET OVER! |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma -3 v. West Virginia | Top | 56-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
#341: ASA 10* TOP Oklahoma Sooners (-) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ 8 ET: Huge game in Big 12 action and we like the value here with Oklahoma only laying a small number since they're on the road for this one. The Sooners welcomed back RB Perine last week after he had missed most of the action the past 4 weeks. Perine and Mixon both had over 100 yards of rushing last week and that is a huge 1-2 punch to have when you also have Mayfield throwing for big plays all over the field. The Oklahoma quarterback had 300 yards of passing last week as he connected on 80% of his throws. The OU offense is going to provide a match-up issue for West Virginia just as it has in other recent meetings. The Sooners have defeated the Mountaineers each of the past 4 seasons and the last 3 meetings have been won by an average of 13.7 points per game with not a single victory by less than 9 points. Oklahoma has a bye week on deck so they're fully focused on remaining perfect in Big 12 action this week. West Virginia has the tougher scheduling situation as they keep going back and forth each week. They were in Texas to face the Red Raiders, then back home in Morgantown, then in Oklahoma to face the Cowboys, then back home to Morgantown, then in Texas again to face the Longhorns, and now back home again. So this is 6 straight weeks of nothing but travel for the Mountaineers and next week they head to Iowa to face the Cyclones before coming back home for their regular season finale. Even though West Virginia is 8-1 on the season, they faced a weaker non-conference schedule than the Sooners did. The only tough non-conference game that the Mountaineers had was a tight win over BYU where they were outgained by the Cougars. In their only tough conference game, West Virginia lost badly to Oklahoma State! As for the Sooners, though they are 8-2 on the season, their two losses were to Ohio State and Houston. The Buckeyes, of course, are one of the top teams in the country and the Cougars proved how good they are with not only beating OU but then rising up to beat Louisville soundly on Thursday! Oklahoma's 8 wins this season have all come by at least 5 points and we're comfortable laying the short number on the road here as OU is 12-1 SU (and 9-4 ATS) in road games the past 3 seasons combined. The Mountaineers were outgained by 153 yards at Texas last week and were very fortunate to get the win. West Virginia also turned the ball over 4 times against the Longhorns but Texas' mistakes helped West Virginia. The Mounties are unlikely to benefit from those types of mistakes this week as they have 8 turnovers in the past 3 weeks and the Sooners have a total of only 4 turnovers in the past 5 weeks. Ever since the loss to Ohio State the Sooners have looked like a team on a mission and we see that "mission" continuing to be executed Saturday night in Morgantown. Lay the short number with Oklahoma as a TOP PLAY in this one Saturday. |
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11-17-16 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 200 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Play UNDER 200 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat game. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:35PM ET. If we make some comparisons to similar foes that each team has recently played we get a pretty good idea of what to expect tonight in terms of the Over/Under. First off the Bucks have recently played at Dallas and at Detroit who are both very similar to Miami in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and pace of play. In those games against the Mavs and Pistons the Bucks and their respective opponent in each combined for 161 total points in OT (Dallas) and 181 total points (Detroit). Both of which are well below tonight's set number by Vegas. On the flip side the Heat recently played the Bulls who have very similar numbers to the Bucks in those same three categories (OEFF, DEFF and pace) mentioned previously. The Heat and Bulls combined for 193 total points in Miami. Both teams are in the top 10 in DEFF allowing 1.05 points per possession and both are in the bottom half of the league in possessions per game. The league average total points scored in an NBA game right now is 207.4PPG and based on our math model and predictive suggestions these two teams will combine for well under that average and below the 200 number set by Vegas. The Under in this series on this court is 13-4 the last 17 meetings and that betting trend should continue here. |
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11-16-16 | Warriors -6 v. Raptors | Top | 127-121 | Push | 0 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - The Toronto Raptors are in a tough scheduling situation tonight as they come off a HUGE game last night against their biggest rival in the East and defending NBA Champs Cleveland Cavaliers and now must face the best team in the West, Golden State. Besides being the second of a back-to-back this is the Raptors 4th game in just six days. Meanwhile the Warriors come into this game on 2 days rest. The Warriors seem to be jelling as a team right now with four straight double-digit wins where they've scored 116+ in all four contests. Golden State does it with offense as they are the most efficient team in the league and shoot over 50% from the field overall, 37.5% from the 3-point line. A good comparison for tonight is the Warriors game on the road in Portland a few weeks back when they were favored by 5-points and won by 23. Toronto already has 2 home losses this year so they're clearly not invincible on their own court. Off that emotionally and physically draining affair last night in Cleveland we doubt they have much in their tanks tonight. Last season as a 6-point or less road chalk the Warriors were 8-2-2 ATS. Lay it with Golden State. |
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11-15-16 | Hornets +1 v. Wolves | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
PLAY ON: CHARLOTTE HORNETS - In our opinion the Minnesota Timberwolves continue to be one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA. The young Wolves are going to be great value as a 'dog' this season and have a bright future but they're not there yet. Consider this: The Wolves were just favored by a point at home against a Lakers team that was one of the worst in the league last year. Now they are favored here against a Charlotte team that made the playoffs last year as a 6th seed. Minnesota faces a Charlotte team that is coming off 2 straight losses to the two best teams in the East, Toronto and Cleveland. This Hornets team was 18-23 SU on the road last year and were 10th in the league in road point differential. This season they've gotten off to a perfect 3-0 road start and we predict a 4-0 record after tonight. Again, Minnesota is improved but let's not forget they were 14-27 SU at home last year with the 27th worst differential of -3.8PPG. The Wolves have also played a weak schedule to date and have just a 3-6 record to show for it. Charlotte has covered 4 of the last five meeting with the Timberwolves and will get another win and cover here. |
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11-15-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -6 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
PLAY ON: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS - We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers at home over the visiting Toronto Raptors. We like the value with the Cavs here at minus six as they were just 2.5 point favorites in Toronto a few weeks back and should be favored by 10 here. These two teams met last year in the playoffs which saw the home team win 5 of the six meetings. The Cavs three home playoff wins came by 31, 19 and 38 points so it's not like the Raptors were even competitive on this court. Cleveland has not cashed in for their backers in their last five home games so don't be surprised if they make a statement tonight against a Raptors team that is more than likely the second best team in the East. Cavs get focused when good teams come to town as they are 7-1-1 ATS their last nine at home against teams with winning road records. The Raptors on the flip side are just 2-5 ATS their last seven road games against teams with winning home records. Cleveland had an average point differential of +8.2PPG last regular season which was the 4th best number in the NBA and asking them to cover this short number doesn't seem like too much to ask. Lay it! |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (pick-em) over NY Giants, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Giants have terrible rush attack. They’ve won three in a row but they haven’t been impressive in doing so. Despite winning their last 3 games, NY has been outgained by 210 combined yards in those games. Last week in a win vs Philly, they were outgained by 140 yards as the Eagles blew a number of opportunities and should have won the game. The Giants run game is THE WORST in the NFL averaging only 68 YPG on the ground and have rushed for only 38, 36, and 56 yards in their last 3 games. They are averaging 340 YPG and giving up 371 YPG (-31 YPG differential) which tells us that this team is worse than their 5-3 record. Cincy is off a bye so they are rested, prepared, and fairly healthy. The Bengals are 3-4-1 on the year but still in the thick of the AFC North race which is led by Baltimore at 5-4. They’ve played one of the league’s toughest schedules with their losses coming @ New England, @ Dallas, @ Pittsburgh, and at home vs Denver. QB Andy Dalton has been solid with a QB rating of 100+ in 4 of his last 5 games throwing 7 TD’s and 1 interception during that span. One of his key weapons, TE Eifert, is now back from injury and had over 100 yards receiving in their last game. Cincy has a MUCH more balanced attack with the 7th best rushing attack in the NFL. The Bengals have played a tougher schedule but still have better numbers than NY putting up 395 YPG offensively while allowing 378 (+17 YPG differential). Let’s also not forget that this is the same Cincinnati team that won the AFC North last year. The Bengals are the better team in our opinion and with them coming off a bye week this sets up nicely. |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks v. Patriots OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
ASA's 10* SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 48 - Seattle @ New England, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET Seattle’s defensive stats are very good, but this team (defense) is running out of gas. This will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks and over the last 3 games this defense has faced more on field minutes than any other team in the NFL at 244. You could see the fatigue on Monday night when Seattle faced Buffalo at home and gave up 25 points on over 400 total yards. The Bills had chances to put more points up on Monday. They scored 17 points on their first 3 drives but missed a FG, threw an interception inside the Seattle 30, and were stopped on downs inside the Seattle 10. After last week’s game Seattle LB KJ Wright stated after the Buffalo game that “Our bodies are on empty”, which is not a good sign now traveling across the country on a short week. Now facing a rested New England team who is off a bye we can expect a lot of points from the Pats. Since Brady came back into the line up, the Patriots have averaged 34 PPG. After a lull a few weeks ago, it looks like Seattle QB Wilson and the offense as a whole is playing better. They’ve put up 51 points in their last two games and they’ll have to score to keep up here. No conservative game plans in this game and we anticipate a high scoring game. Take the OVER. |
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11-12-16 | California v. Washington State -14.5 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over California Golden Bears Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #184 |
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11-11-16 | Pacers -5 v. 76ers | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
#701 Indiana Pacers (-5) @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET. This is a quick home-and-home turnaround as these same two teams just met on Wednesday in Indiana. The Pacers won an ugly overtime game 122-115 as a -11.5 point favorite. Granted Indiana hasn't won a road game this year but the 76ers haven't won a home game either. Indiana is the better team here and after a close, sloppy win they'll be focused here against an over-matched Sixers club. The Pacers are far superior offensively with the 11th most efficient offense in the NBA averaging 1.078 points per possession. By comparison the 76ers are LAST in the league averaging just .951 points per possession. Defensively the Pacers aren't great in terms of defensive efficiency and rank a few spots below Philly but it's marginable. Philadelphia has the worst point differential in the NBA at a negative -12.7PPG and have lost 3 of their five home games by more than tonight's spread. The 76ers guards are HORRIBLE and the Pacers will exploit them on the perimeter with Teague, Ellis and Paul George. Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings. Lay the points! |
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11-10-16 | Stars v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total - Dallas Stars @ Calgary Flames, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #19 |
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11-09-16 | Pistons -4 v. Suns | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
Detroit Pistons (-4) over @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - The Detroit Pistons are coming off an embarrassing 32-point loss to the Clippers and will bounce back here against a travel weary Phoenix Suns team. Detroit is a profitable 8-3 ATS their last eleven when coming off a straight up loss and they've covered 4 straight on this floor. Phoenix is just 7-9 ATS their last sixteen games when playing the second night of a back-to-back, 0-1 already this season. The Suns are coming off a hard fought close game in Portland last night and we don't see them duplicating that effort against the Pistons tonight. The big advantage the Pistons have here is defensively as they rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings while the Suns are 8th worst. Not to mention the Pistons are actually slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings too. Detroit has an overall point differential of +2PPG on the season while the Suns are a negative or -7PPG. Let's not forget this Phoenix team won just 14 games at home last season so getting the Pistons to win this game by a few buckets is not too much to ask. Lay the points. |
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11-08-16 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Memphis -3 over Denver, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET This is a very important game for the 3-4 Memphis Grizzlies. They’ve been at home for a majority of the early season and after this game they will be on the road for 6 of their next 7 games. They are off back to back home losses to two of the better teams in the West, Portland & LA Clippers. They catch a 4-4 Denver team in a great spot for a potential letdown here. The Nuggets will be playing their 5th straight road game here and 6 of their last 7 have been away from home. This ends a long road trip as Denver heads home after this to play 6 of their next 7 at home. Denver is off a big upset win @ Boston in their most recent game which sets this up nicely. Memphis is laying just 3.5 points here in an early season “must win” spot against a team that was 33-49 last year. For comparison, Memphis was just favored by 1.5 here against a Portland team that was the 5th seed in the West last season and was not in the same tough road situation that Denver is currently in. The value and urgency is with the host here and we’ll lay the 3.5 with Memphis. |
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11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points - Buffalo @ Seattle, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Seahawk defense ranks #1 in the NFL in PPG allowed at just 15.6. The only two teams that have topped 20 points against this stop unit are New Orleans & Atlanta who rank #1 and #2 in the NFL in total offense. In their other 5 games, the Seattle defense is giving up just 12 PPG. The last 2 games combined (vs Arizona & New Orleans) they’ve allowed just 2 TD’s and one came on a short field (37 yard drive) after a turnover. Buffalo’s offense has averaged 26 PPG yet they are doing so on just 333 YPG which ranks them 25th in the NFL in total offense. Thus, their scoring numbers are a bit skewed. Because they don’t have a great passing QB, the Bills rely heavily on the run to set up the pass. Their run play percentage ranks 3rd in the NFL. Problem is, Seattle gives up just 87 YPG rushing on just 3.4 YPC. The Buffalo offense will struggle tonight. Seattle’s offense has problems of its own. Russell Wilson is banged up and you can tell he is not 100%. They’ve scored just ONE offensive TD in the last two games and that includes a game vs a terrible New Orleans defense that gave up almost 500 yards to a bad SF offense yesterday. These two offenses are in the bottom 3rd of the league in 3rd down conversion percentage which stops drives and leads to punts. That is very conducive to a low scoring game. We like the UNDER on Monday Night. |
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11-07-16 | Pacers v. Hornets -3 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Tonight we play on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over the visiting Indiana Pacers. Charlotte continues to be one of those teams in the NBA that quietly fly under the radar but have shaped themselves into a pretty solid team. The Hornets are 4-1 SU this year and have won 33 of their last 46 home games. Charlotte had a +6.4PPG home point differential last season which was 7th best in the NBA. Indiana was just 19-22 SU on the road last year, with a negative differential of -.6 PPG. They've picked up where they left off last year as they stand 0-3 SU away from home this season (average loss margin 14.6PPG) and the losses have come against Brooklyn, Chicago and Milwaukee. All three of those teams are ranked lower in our power ratings than Charlotte. Charlotte beat the Pacers in all three meetings a year ago and clearly have a matchup advantage in this series. The Hornets have covered 4 straight at home over the Pacers and 8 of the last nine meetings overall. Lay the short number with Charlotte. |
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11-06-16 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
ASA's 10* AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +1 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET Even though they are now at home, the travel schedule for the Raiders has to catch up with them and we think this is the spot. They’ve already played FIVE long travel/east coast games including games @ Jacksonville & @ Tampa the last 2 weeks. They stayed in Florida between those two games so they were gone for a full week and a half or so. Those long trips so far this season should result in weary legs in their first game back. Oakland is 5-0 on the road this year, however at home they are just 1-2 and their one win was by 3 points. We still feel their 6-2 record is a bit of a “farce” as they’ve outgained only ONE opponent all season long. Despite winning 6 of their 8 games, the Raiders point differential is just +12 which actually rates LAST in the AFC West and 14th overall in the NFL. Denver is also 6-2 but they’ve outgained every opponent with the exception of Atlanta & San Diego. The Broncos point differential is +58 on the season which is 2nd best in the AFC behind New England. We have a HUGE defensive edge here with Denver in this game which is huge especially when getting points. The Broncos is 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing a full 110 fewer YPG than Oakland who ranks 31st in that category. Denver has dominated this series winning 8 of the last 9 with the Raiders only win coming by 3 points. We like Denver to win this game outright. |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers OVER 52.5 | Top | 41-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NFC TOTAL SMASH GAME OF THE WEEK ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 52.5 Points - New Orleans @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET These two defenses are terrible. They rank last (SF) and 2nd to last (N.O.) in scoring defense allowing 30.7 & 31.3 PPG respectively. The Saints offense hasn’t had huge outputs the last two weeks (24 & 20 points) but that’s because they played two of the top defenses in the NFL (KC & Seattle). The Chiefs are 8th in the league in scoring defense and Seattle is 2nd. Before last week, the Saints had topped 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games and we’d have to expect them to do the same here vs a SF defense that has given up 33 or more in 5 of their last 6. The Niners offense has struggled but with 2 weeks off we think Chip Kelly will have some new wrinkles to get them moving against a Saint defense that has allowed 27 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Another key factor here will be pace of play. We expect a large number of offensive plays in this one as SF is #1 in pace this year running a play every 23.95 seconds and New Orleans is 4th in pace averaging a play every 26.05 seconds. This one has all the makings of a high scoring game and we’ll take the OVER. |
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11-06-16 | Eagles +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
ASA's NFC EAST GAME OF THE WEEK ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re siding with the better team here getting points. This line insinuates that these two teams would be dead even (or very close to that) on a neutral field. We have Philly rated as the better team so the line value is with the Eagles in our opinion. The Eagles are just 4-3 but have the top point differential in the entire NFC and 2nd best in the NFL at +62. The Giants are also 4-3 but they are -8 in point differential. Last week, the Eagles led @ Dallas, whom many consider to be the top team in the NFC, for nearly the entire 2nd half including holding a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. Dallas scored a TD late to push the game into OT where the Cowboys won 29-23. Expect Philly to bounce back with a big effort here after that tough loss. The Giants are 1-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and 2-1 SU with their wins coming by 3 over New Orleans and by 4 over Baltimore. New York is historically one of the worst home teams in the NFL with a 24-31-1 ATS record at home since October of 2009. This is simply a bad match up for the Giants. They can’t run the ball at all (dead last in the NFL at 70 YPG) and they are facing a Philly pass defense that ranks as the most efficient in the NFL (Football Outsiders). We look for a New York offense, that has already been held to 17 points or less four times this year, to struggle with this Eagle defense. Philadelphia has won 5 of the last 6 in this series and we’ll call for them to win again. |
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11-05-16 | Iowa v. Penn State -6 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #406 |
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11-05-16 | Wolves v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 92-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
ASA #703 @Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) over Minnesota Timberwolves - 6PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder minus the points at home over the Minnesota T'Wolves. This is a great spot to play on the Thunder as they are coming off an embarrassing TV loss to the Warriors a few nights back and will take out their frustrations on the Wolves. Minnesota is somewhat of a media darling with their young budding superstars of Wiggins and Towns which makes them over-valued right now. In their two road games they were favored at Memphis and a 1-point dog at the Kings. Now they are catching just 5.5 points at OKC with the Thunder off a loss? In fact, the Thunder were -8.5 at home against the Suns and -8 at home against the Lakers this season and are now laying less than that in this situation against a Wolves team that isn't any better than those two teams. The Thunder have covered 5 straight when coming off a double digit loss and 6 of their last eight off any loss. A focused OKC team and Russell Westbrook get a huge home win here. |
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11-04-16 | Clippers -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 99-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: L.A. CLIPPERS - We will play the LA Clippers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Clippers come into this game off an upset home loss which should have them more focused than normal. Conversely the Grizzlies come into this game off an OT win over the New Orleans Pelicans and may be a little 'relaxed'. The Clippers have played a tough schedule early on with quality wins over Portland and Utah while the Grizzlies have played a soft schedule against Minnesota (twice), New York, Washington and New Orleans. None of those aforementioned teams made the playoffs last season and combined had a record of 161 and 249. Last regular season the Clippers had the 6th best road differential in the NBA and a road record of 24-17 SU. Memphis was 20th in the league in home court differential last year and the Clippers have won 4 of the last five meetings. With L.A. coming off a HORRIBLE shooting night we expect a bounce back here, especially considering they face the Spurs tomorrow night and can't afford to go into that contest off 2 straight losses. Memphis was a home dog to the T'Wolves this year and were +3.5 points at home to the Wizards and the Clippers are far superior to both of those teams and laying just a few more points here. Take the Clippers! |
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11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ATLANTA FALCONS (minus) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tonight we play on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Earlier this season the Falcons hosted the Bucs and lost 31-24 as a -2.5 point favorite. That was the first game of the season and considering how these two teams have played since then the oddsmakers have only adjusted the Falcons as 1.5 points better? Now we get the Falcons playing with same season revenge laying a short number against an inferior team. Atlanta has the #1 ranked offense in the NFL in terms of Total yards and they've accomplished that after facing Denver, Seattle and Green Bay who rank in the top 7 in the NFL in Total defense. Now the Dirty Birds face a Bucs defense that just gave up over 600 yards of offense to the Raiders last Sunday. Tampa Bay allows 5.9 yards per play which is 25th in the league and an average of 379 yards per game which is 26th worst. What makes those numbers even worse is the fact the Bucs have faced 3 of the six worst offenses in the league! Not to mention the Bucs defense will be tired here following a short week coming off a game where they were on the field for 83 plays (league average 64.3). Tampa doesn't have an offense capable of trading points with the Falcons either as they are in the bottom half of the league in Total O, 27th in yards per play and average 21.7PPG which is 19th in the NFL. Atlanta does not have a great history as a chalk but they are coming off 4 close games against good teams: Denver, Seattle, San Diego and Green Bay after beating three lesser teams by 7, 13 and 15 points. Tampa is 0-5 ATS their last five at home and have failed to cover the spread in those games by an average of 10PPG. Lay the points on the road with Atlanta. |
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11-03-16 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 212 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
We play OVER in the Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday evening. The league average right now is 207.4PPG and the line on this game isn’t posted high enough in relationship to that number. The Buck and Pacers both prefer to play much faster than most teams in the NBA right now with the Pacers ranking 8th in pace of play (99.9 possessions per game) and Bucks just a few spots below them at 13th (98.2PPP). Indiana is shooting 45.9% on the season which is 8th best in the NBA while the Bucks are 15th in shooting at 44.1%. Neither team is great defensively either as both rank in the bottom 13 of the league in defensive efficiency rankings allowing more than 1.084 points per possession. We also like the fact that both teams are capable of getting to the rim and score easy baskets in the lane. Milwaukee is 2nd in the league in points in the paint at 53.5PPG while the Pacers are 7th at 48PPG. The Bucks have scored or allowed 107+ points in 3 of four games this year while the Pacers have scored or allowed 115+ in 3 of their four games. This sets up to be a HIGH SCORING GAME! |
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11-01-16 | Bucks v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON #714 New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) over Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET - Tonight we like the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points at home over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Pelicans have gotten off to an 0-3 start but let's not lose site of the fact that two of those losses have come against the Spurs and Warriors who were 2 of the 3 best teams in the NBA a year ago. After losing 11 of its first 12 games a season ago you can bet the Pelicans are already feeling the heat and will play with a higher sense of urgency than normal in game #4 this season. New Orleans big man Anthony Davis has gotten off to a fantastic start to the season by averaging 37.7PPG and Milwaukee doesn't have anyone on the roster that can stop him. The Bucks have given up an average of 52 points per game in the paint this season which is the second most in the NBA. Milwaukee has gotten off to a 1-2 start to the season and are going through an adjustment period as head coach Jason Kidd continues to juggle his lineup. The Bucks were one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA last season and don't look as if they've gotten any better this season. The Pelicans have covered 5 of the last six meetings with the Bucks in the Big Easy and 8 of the last eleven meetings overall. We don't feel the oddsmakers have adjusted this number enough considering the Pelicans were just a -1.5 point favorite at home over Denver who is better than this Milwaukee team. Lay it! |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 40 Points - Minnesota @ Chicago, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Two division opponents who know each other very well lends to the UNDER here. Here we have two very solid defenses and two inept offenses for the most part. Minnesota ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and YPP defense. Surprisingly to most, Chicago’s defense has been solid this year ranking 13th in total defense and 10th in YPP defense. Offensively, these teams are among the worst in the NFL. Chicago ranks dead last in scoring putting up just 15.9 PPG. They have topped 17 points only once all season and that was against a bad Indy defense. Even in that game they only reached 23. The Minnesota offense ranks only ahead of San Francisco averaging less than 300 YPG of total offense. The Vikings average 21.5 PPG which is 20th in the NFL, however if their defense has a lot to do with that. In fact, if you subtract their 4 defensive/special teams TD’s this year they are averaging only 17.5 PPG. Because neither of these teams like the up tempo, fast paced game, they average very few offensive plays per game. Chicago averages only 59 plays per game (30th in the NFL) and Minnesota just 64 (18th in the NFL). A slower paced game with low numbers of offensive plays obviously normally leads to lower scoring games. These two have gone UNDER the number in 7 of their last 9 meetings and we see another low scoring affair tonight. Take the UNDER. |
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10-30-16 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 32-33 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta -3 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET With Green Bay’s injuries in the defensive backfield, this become a very bad match up for them. The Packers will be down their 3 top corners on Sunday which will make it awfully tough to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company. The two CB’s who will be starting for the Packers on Sunday will be two guys who normally wouldn’t even see the field if the injuries hadn’t occurred. Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic this year. They lead the NFL in scoring (32.7 PPG), total offense (433 YPG), and yards per play offense (6.8). They are coming off consecutive losses so the Falcons will be playing with urgency here at home. They’ve played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL to date already playing 4 road games against the likes of Seattle, Denver, and Oakland. We’re not sure the Green Bay offense can keep up in this one. They rank near the bottom of the NFL (21st in total offense) and they have very little running game with Lacy & Starks both injured. WR Ty Montgomery who has been filling in at RB at times was sick for much of the week as well. He should play but practiced little this week. We have a team in Atlanta that averages over 30 PPG against a tough schedule vs Green Bay, a team that has topped 30 only once all season and they have faced the 31st toughest schedule so far this year. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games and this simply isn’t the Green Bay team of old. Atlanta is the better team and at home here. We’ll lay the low number. |
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10-30-16 | Patriots -6 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
ASA's 10* AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET As we stated last week we thought Buffalo was a bit over rated and their recent solid play (heading into last week) was a product of their opponents. They had beaten this New England team who had a rookie QB starting, then topped the LA Rams who have very little offense, and then beat San Fran who is obviously just a bad team in general. Last week we jumped on Miami +2.5 at home over Buffalo and were rewarded with a nice win. What looked like a close game, really shouldn’t have been. The Fins dominated outgained Buffalo by nearly 200 yards a full 2 YPP. Now they have to face an angry New England team that has their 16-0 loss to Buffalo just a few weeks ago at the forefront. You can bet Brady & Company, even though he didn’t play in the first game, have been waiting patiently for this one. Belichick is a master in revenge games especially in division play where he is a near perfect 18-3 ATS his last 21 in that situation. Despite their earlier loss this season, the Pats have absolutely dominated Buffalo with a 30-3 SU record the last 33 meetings. Since Brady has returned, New England is 3-0 SU & ATS winning all 3 by double digits. Since he’s come back Brady has been lights out completing 75% of his passes for over 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s (no interceptions). The Bills offense was being carried by RB LeSean McCoy during their winning streak and with him being limited to just 8 carries last week, they gained only 267 total yards on just 4.7 YPP. McCoy is doubtful this week and even if he plays, he’ll be ineffective with a bad hamstring. With this line sitting under a TD, we really like New England in this spot. |
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10-29-16 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -8 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin Badgers (-) over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #172 |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
We will play on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday evening. Jacksonville was expected to be an explosive offensive team this year considering the wealth of talent on that side of the football they have but it just hasn't been the case. The Jags are 29th in the league in offensive efficiency, 24th in scoring at 19.5PPG (down from 23.5 last year) and average just 324 total yards of 'O' per game which is 27th in the NFL and a full 24 less yards than a season ago. While the Jags have gotten worse offensively, the Titans have gotten better. The Titans are 14th in the league in yards per game, 3rd in rushing yards per game and average more points than they did a year ago. Defensively these two team are very similar with Jacksonville ranking 9th overall in Total 'D' and the Titans ranking 10th in that same category. The biggest advantage for the Titans we feel is the running game tonight. When you can control the football and convert on 3rd downs you're going to have a much better shot at winning the game. The Titans have DeMarco Murray who is 3rd in the league in total rushing yards and leads a Tennessee offense that runs for 143YPG at a 4.9 yard per carry average. Conversely the Jags are one of the worst rushing teams in the league averaging just 76.6YPG at 3.7 yards per attempt. Tennessee converts 46.24% of their 3rd down attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Jacksonville is last in the league in converting 3rd downs at just 27.63%. The short week and travel will certainly hurt a Jags team that is just 5-27 SU their last 32 on the road. The home team has won 4 in a row in this series and backing the home team with the short number is the way to go here. |
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10-26-16 | Heat v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 108-96 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #702 Orlando Magic (-) over Miami Heat - 7PM ET - We will play on the Orlando Magic at home over the visiting Miami Heat. The Heat had 13 more wins than the Magic a season ago and were better statistically in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ratings but offseason moves and hiring's may have flipped where these teams end up at the end of the season. In fact, a telling number that supports our thinking is the win totals posted by Vegas on these two teams as the Heat's regular season number is 34.5 while the Magic is 37.5. The Magic made some major upgrades in the offseason including the hiring of Frank Vogel as the new coach. Vogel will have a HUGE impact on this young roster and could be the difference maker for this franchise. Orlando traded for Serge Ibaka, brought in Bismack Biyombo via free agency (won't play tonight) and added veteran forward Jeff Green. Orlando's starting lineup is simply better than the Heat and we predict it shows tonight. Nikola Vucevic is back in the middle after averaging 18.2PPG, 8.9RPG and 1.1BLKPG, young rising star Aaron Gordon is on the wing along with Ibaka while the backcourt will be manned by Evan Fournier (15.4PPG, 2.7APG) and Elfrid Payton (10.7PPG, 6.4 APG). Miami on the flip side is now expecting role players to step up and be major contributors and we don't think they will. D-Wade is gone from Miami and he had a phenomenal season a year ago (played in 75 games which was his most since the 2010-11 season) leading the Heat and scoring and second in assists per game. Now Miami turns to Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow to carry the load and we think it's going to be a long year for the Heat starting with a loss tonight. Orlando was 23-18 SU at home last season with a +2.3 point differential. Miami was 20-21 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -2.1PPG. The home team has won and covered 4 of the last five and we expect a double digit win here by Orlando! |
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10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos UNDER 40.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 40.5 Points - Houston @ Denver Two bottom eight offenses vs to top eight defenses lead us the under tonight. The Texans offense is rank dead last in the NFL in efficiency according to Football Outsiders. Denver isn’t much better ranked 23rd in the same category. Houston averages just 18 PPG which ranks them right near the bottom of the league. Last week they scored 26 in their overtime win vs Indy. Let’s not forget that the Colt defense is one of the worst in the NFL AND that Houston had just 9 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. They scored 2 TD’s late to send the game to OT and picked up the 26-23 win. A very deceiving final to say the least. They struggled to score against a bad Indy defense so how will they do tonight on the road against a top 5 defense in Denver? Probably not good. We don’t expect the Denver offense to do any better. They have scored just 16 & 13 points the last two weeks vs lower tier defenses (Atlanta & San Diego). However, the Bronco defense held those two high scoring teams to just 21 and 23 points respectively. With two below average QB’s at the helm tonight (Osweiler & Siemian), we don’t expect many explosive plays in the passing game. UNDER is the play tonight. |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +6.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Falcons are obviously much improved this year but this is an absolute terrible situation for them. If there was ever a game they wouldn’t show up or take at least a little lightly this would be it. The Falcons have played a ridiculously tough schedule over the last 3 weeks. They beat Carolina (division rival) at home, then traveled to Denver to get a win, and finally they went back to the west coast last week and lost a tight one @ Seattle. On top of that, they host Green Bay next weekend. In hindsight, while impressive, the Falcons 3 game stretch isn’t quite what we thought. Their win over Carolina looked great but the Panthers now only have one win on the season. They beat Denver which was solid, but Denver has since lost to this San Diego team as well. The Chargers are much better than their 2-4 record. They’ve led in the 4th quarter of every game this year and their loss margins have been by 6 in OT, 4, 3, and 1 point. Add to that the fact that the Bolts beat Denver last Thursday so they’ve had a full 10 days to rest and get ready for this road game. On the other hand, Atlanta is now home but they’ve been on the road 4 of the previous 5 weeks so they have to be a bit leg weary. This game is a late 4:05 PM ET start which also benefits San Diego going west to east. The Chargers are 2-1 ATS as a road underdog this year and 20-9 ATS their last 29 in that situation. We’ll call for a tight game and wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Chargers win outright here. |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Fins are home for the 3rd straight week while Buffalo is playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Miami finally got healthy on their offensive line last week and it showed with a 30-15 win over Pittsburgh. Beating one of the AFC favorites that handily was impressive and while QB Roethlisberger was injured, it was late in the game when Miami was in full control. The Dolphins put together an impressive offensive game with 474 total yards while holding the potent Pitt offense to just 297 yards. Most wouldn’t know it but Miami’s offense is putting up 6 YPP which is the 5th best mark in the NFL. Buffalo is 4-2 on the season but they’ve been outgained in 4 of those 6 games. They’ve been getting it done on the ground with LeSean McCoy rolling up 290 yards rushing and 3 TD’s the last 2 games. Problem is, McCoy is now injured with a bad hammy and may not play here. Even if he does, he’s not 100% and his explosiveness will be limited. That takes the biggest threat away from the Bills offense. Buffalo has won 4 straight but we are not yet overly impressed. They beat Arizona at home but were outgained and the Cards had a whopping 5 turnovers. Then they beat New England with the Pats playing a rookie QB. Then it was the “offenseless” Rams a game Buffalo was again outgained but benefitted from a pick 6. Last week at home vs San Fran who lost RB Hyde which was their top threat for an already poor offense. Now the Bills have a huge game with New England on deck and we think they are ripe for the picking. Miami wins this one. |
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10-22-16 | Arkansas +10.5 v. Auburn | Top | 3-56 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Razorbacks (+) over Auburn Tigers Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #401 |
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10-17-16 | Jets +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON: NY JETS (+) over Arizona Cardinals - Monday, 8:25PM ET - The value lies with the Jets on Monday night when they travel to Phoenix to take on the Cardinals and we'll grab the points. New York is off three straight losses and are in desperation mode at 1-4 SU on the year while the Cards got a little reprieve after a win over the 49ers last week. The Jets have faced the tougher schedule to date after facing: Steelers, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs and Bengals who have a combined 17-11 record. Arizona has faced: 49ers, Rams, Bills, Bucs and Pats (without Brady @ home and loss) who are 15-14 on the year. The Cards will go back to starting QB Carson Palmer tonight but is that necessarily a good thing? Palmer has struggled throwing the football this year and currently sits 26th in the NFL among starting quarterbacks in QBR rating at 51.2. Palmer has thrown just 6 TD's to 5 INT' on the year. Yes, the Jets secondary has been torched this season but they've also faced 2 QB's that are top 7 in total passing yards (Dalton and Roethlisberger) and Russell Wilson who has a 97.2 QBR and is 12th in completion percentage. What the Jets do REALLY well defensively is stop the run. Arizona's RB David Johnson (5th in the league in rushing) will have a hard time finding room to run against the Jet's defensive front. Turnovers have killed the Jets this season but Arizona isn't much better at taking care of the football. The Jets average 2.6 giveaways per game but the Cards average 2.0. The Cardinals are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 at home when laying a TD or more. Grab the points with the Jets. |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -2.5 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET This line on this game is a steal with a way better Texans team at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are off a loss last Sunday (4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss) while the Colts are off a come from behind win. Indy trailed the Bears late last week before pulling out a win and were outgained by 126 total yards in that game. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL ranking 30th in the league in yards allowed per game at 410.6YPG. Houston on the other hand ranks 6th in total D allowing 110 less yards per game than the Colts do. Indianapolis allows 6.5 yards per play overall defensively which is 31st in the league while the Texans allow just 4.9YPPL which is 7th best in the NFL. The Titans have outgained 4 of their five opponents this season and their two losses have come to the Vikings and Patriots who are a combined 9-1. Houston’s foes this year have a combined record of 15-10 while the Colts have wins over the Chargers and Bears and their opponents on the season have a 10-17 overall record. Even without JJ Watt the Texans defense will get to Luck as the Colts O-line is again one of the worst in the NFL (allowing 4 sacks per game – last in the league). After facing a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league the Texans find plenty of opportunities here. |
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10-15-16 | Tulsa +21.5 v. Houston | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Houston Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #159 |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 44 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Tonight we play UNDER in the Broncos @ Chargers game. The Chargers are 8th in total offense this year averaging 373YPG and second in scoring at 30.4PPG. So why wouldn't we like 'over' in this contest with a potent offense like the Chargers? It's because San Diego's offensive numbers are really misleading as they've played the 3 worst defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed per game as Oakland, New Orleans and Indy all give up over 410YPG. Tonight the Chargers face a Denver 'D' that allows just 301YPG and 17.4PPG and it's going to be tough moving the ball here. The Broncos just faced a Falcons offense that is the best in the NFL and held them to 23 points so they should contain a Chargers 'O' here. Denver learned last week they must protect starting QB Trevor Siemian as rookie Paxton Lynch just isn't ready for the NFL yet. That means a heavy dose of the running game and a ball control offense in this game. The Broncos are 21st in the league in plays per game at 62.8 while the Chargers are 26th at 61.6. Less plays means less scoring opportunities and a lower scoring game. The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the last seven meetings overall in this series and 5 of the last six on this field. Our math model projects 42 or less points tonight. |
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10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants +115 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants Money Line (+) vs Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 8:35 PM ET |
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10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Tonight we play OVER in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers game. Can you name all the teams in the NFL that average more plays per game than these two teams? ZERO! TBay averages 71 plays per game while the Panthers average 70.5. More plays and faster paced offense clearly leads to more scoring opportunities. Both teams have several key injuries to their running backs but that won't change their offensive philosophies as they both prefer to throw the football. Tampa Bay is 1st in the NFL in passing attempts per game at 44.2 while the Panthers are 7th at 39.2. Obviously Panthers starting QB Cam Newton is out for this game but we like the value it gives us on the number. Backup QB Derek Anderson played offensive series against Atlanta and went 17 of 23 for 172 yards with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. Breaking down those series he led the Panthers on drives of 9 plays for 94 yards and a TD. 11 plays 75 yards and a TD. Threw a pick 6 (which helps over bettors) and threw another INT on his last series. With Anderson running the offense the Panthers averaged 7.4 yards per play which would be better than everyone in the NFL. The Bucs offense is averaging below 20PPG but they've faced three defenses that rank in the top half of the league in points allowed per game defensively. After allowing just 19.5PPG last season the Panthers defense is giving up a whopping 29.5PPG this year which is 5th worst in the NFL. Speaking of defense...or lack of defense, the Bucs are giving up 32PPG which is 2nd to last in the league, allow 5.5 yards per play (19th) and 1 point for every 11.1 yards gained by an opponent which is 31st in the NFL. Tampa Bay QB Winston has 23 INT's since the start of last season which is the 3rd most in that time (Bortles 24, Fitzpatrick 25) which could lead to a few short scoring opportunities for the Panthers. Last year in two meetings these same two teams combined for 48 and 60 total points and Bucs on 5-2 'over' streak while Panthers 'over' in 4 of last five at home. Bet here is OVER! |
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10-09-16 | Giants v. Packers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 - NY Giants @ Green Bay, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET People continue to view Green Bay as a high scoring juggernaut on offense. The fact is, this is not nearly the same offense they put on the field 2 years ago when the put up 30 PPG. Last year they struggled mightily on offense scoring just 23 PPG a full TD down from the year before. This year while they are scoring 25 PPG, their offense is again struggling. They are averaging only 293 YPG which is 29th in the NFL ahead of only Minnesota, San Fran, and the LA Rams. On a yards per play basis, the Pack are putting up only 5.1 YPP which is 25th in the league. Even when the tallied 34 points in their most recent game vs Detroit, the Packers totaled only 325 yards. On the other side, the Giants offense is scoring just 18 PPG on the year (27th in the NFL) and has been held to 20 points or less in 3 of their 4 games. The only time they topped 20 points was a 27 point output against Washington who ranks 29th in the NFL in total defense. Three of their four games have come against poor defenses (New Orleans & Dallas along with Washington) and their scoring numbers are still poor. We think they’ll struggle against a decent Green Bay defense coming off a bye week. This is the highest total thus far on the season for Green Bay and the second highest for New York, only behind their game vs New Orleans (54 points) which ended 16-13. We like UNDER in this one. |
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10-09-16 | Titans +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +3.5 over Miami, Sunday 1:00 PM ET Both of these teams are just 1-3 but Tennessee is showing signs of being a much improved team while the Dolphins could easily be 0-4. The Titans have been outgained by 13 total yards on the season. Their running game is among the best in the NFL averaging 127 YPG (4th in the NFL) on 4.7 YPC (3rd in the NFL). Their offensive line is massive improved and ranks as one of the top 10 O-Lines in the NFL (Football Outsiders). That’s bad news for a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in rush defense allowing 130 YPG on the ground (29th in the NFL). The Titans have shown signs of life even in their losses. They had an undefeated Minnesota team down 10-0 at half and held the Vikings without an offensive TD but somehow lost. They outgained Oakland in a 17-10 loss. Last week they were tied with @ Houston 20-20 in the 2nd half in a close loss. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been outgained by every team they’ve faced this season including their lone win in OT at home against a bad Cleveland team. Miami has been outgained by 188 yards on the season and this team should probably actually be winless. The Fins have been horrendous as a home favorite going just 13-43 ATS their last 56 in that situation. Also tough to lay points with a Miami team that has topped 20 points only 3 times in their last 14 games. We think Tennessee has a great shot to win this one outright. Take the points. |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions UNDER 46 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points - Philadelphia @ Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Philly defense has allowed a TOTAL of 27 points this season in 10 games! That includes holding an extremely potent Pittsburgh offense to just 3 points and 251 total yards in their most recent game. The Eagle defense has allowed just 2 offensive TD’s so far this season. They face a struggling Detroit offense that has scored a total of 4 offensive TD’s in their last 3 games. The Lions are “averaging” 23.8 PPG mostly due to the fact they put up 39 in their opening game against a bad Indy defense that ranks 30th allowing 31 PPG. Detroit’s last 3 games have come against defenses ranked 19th, 17th, and 14th yet they still only put up 4 offensive TD’s in those games. Now they face the #1 defense in the NFL. Philly’s offense has looked very good but they still have a rookie QB and we look for them to be conservative on the road. The Eagles are the slowest paced offense in the NFL averaging a snap every 31.5 seconds. New head coach Doug Peterson tries to “shorten” the game, not make mistakes, and let his defense win it. The Detroit defense gave up some points to Green Bay & Indy, however in their other two games they held Tennessee to 16 and Chicago to 17. This total is set at 46 which is basically the same total the oddsmakers set when Philly hosted Pitt in their most recent game. The Steelers offense is far superior to the Lions and we think this is set too high. Take the UNDER here. |
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10-08-16 | Washington State +6.5 v. Stanford | Top | 42-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #407 |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ARIZONA CARDINALS: This might be your last shot to get great value with the Cardinals who were picked by many experts (not ASA) to represent the NFC this year in the Super Bowl. It has obviously been a disappointing start to the season for the Cardinals (1-3) after going 13-3 in the regular season a year ago in winning the NFC West. So this week we get them as a small favorite on the road with the line being lower than normal because they will be without starting QB Carson Palmer. But is that necessarily a bad thing? After throwing 35 TD to just 11INT's a year ago, Palmer has not looked good so far this year with just 6 TD's to 5 INT's while completing just 58.5% of his passing attempts. Granted, QB Drew Stanton looked awful in his short relief appearance last week against the Rams but now he's gotten extra reps all week with an opportunity to prepare for the starting job. But we don't expect Stanton to be put in a position to carry the Cardinals this week, he'll just have to manage the game and hand the ball off to RB David Johnson. Johnson leads the NFL in all-purpose yards and is 7th in rushing yards (300yds) at 4.7 yards per carry. That is significant here as the Niners are 22nd worst in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowing 4.3 yards per carry and LAST in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed per game at 140+. Another key factor in this matchup is the loss of LB NaVorro Bowman for the 49ers who has 236 tackles the past two seasons. Arizona is 7th in the NFL in total offense compared to San Fran's 30th overall rankings, are better defensively (8th total D versus SF #26th) and backed into a corner this early in the season. Let's not forget this Cards team was 7-1 SU last year on the road and are 12-2 ATS their last fourteen roadies against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona also has some impressive backing when coming off a spread loss and it all adds up to a win here even without their starting QB. Lay it! |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4.5 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Vikes sit at 3-0 on the season despite scoring only 3 offensive TD’s the entire season. While we understand their defense is very good, this team needs to start putting some offensive numbers up or they will start losing some games. We think their first loss comes tonight. The Giants have a big edge offensively. They are averaging 6.5 yards per play while the Vikes are averaging just 4.8 yards per play. New York is off a home loss vs Washington and this team has the best road spread record in the NFL since the start of the 2007 season at 44-30-2 ATS. The Giants will have some extra motivation tonight as well after getting whipped by Minny last year 49-17. The game wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the score would indicate. The Vikings outgained the Giants by just 5 yards in the game despite running 11 more offensive plays. Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions while Minny did not have a turnover. Due to the turnovers Minnesota scored on a pick 6 and had TD drives of 4 yards and 18 yards. The game snowballed out of control and NY just couldn’t get back into it. Let’s face it, Minnesota is 3-0 but they’ve been outgained by an average of 30 YPG this season. They average only 265 YPG on offense (last in the NFL) and with Adrian Peterson out along with starting LT Kalil, we don’t look for them to light up a Giant defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in total defense. The Giants are 2-1 but they have a +57 YPG differential on the season. They are far superior offensively, as we’ve stated, and while Minny’s defense is better, it’s not by a wide margin. We’ll call for the Giants to win a close game tonight. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4 | Top | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4 over KC, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Steelers will be in a foul mood here after getting embarrassed at Philly last week. The potent Pitt offense was only able to put up 3 points in that game. Expect a much better effort this week at home on Sunday Night. We are not sold on KC. They’re games have gone as follows…A come from WAY behind (down 24-3) overtime win at home against a middle of the pack San Diego team, a 7-point loss @ Houston, and a home win over the Jets last week helped by New York’s EIGHT, yes EIGHT turnovers. The struggling KC offense has scored only 22 points the last 2 weeks (subtracting defensive TD). They’ve scored a total of ONE offensive TD the last 2 games. We think it will be for them to keep up with the Steelers offense that will come out angry this week. Not only are the Steelers coming off a terrible effort last week, they also remember last year’s trip to KC where they lost 23-13 in QB Landry Jones first start of his career (Big Ben was injured). Pitt RB Le’veon Bell ran for 117 yards in that game and he is back from suspension this week. Steelers are 13-6 ATS at home when coming off an outright loss. We expect the Steeler to win this game at home and when they win at home, they usually control the game. Of Pittsburgh’s last 17 home wins, 15 have come by at least a TD. The Pitt offense rolls this week and the Chiefs can’t keep up. Lay it with the Steelers. |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks v. Jets +1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +1.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a terrible match up for Seattle in our opinion. First of all, you have an angry Jets team that was smoked last Sunday @ KC. The Chiefs won 24-3 but only scored 10 points on offense and were basically given the game by Jet QB Fitzpatrick who threw 6 interceptions. NY had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game. Expect a big bounce back at home this week. Seattle won a home game against a tired SF team that had played on the east coast a week earlier. QB Russell Wilson came into the game banged up and then injured his ankle. Even if he plays here he will not be at 100%. That’s a key in this game as we expect the Jets defensive line to control the line of scrimmage. Seattle’s offensive line is bad. They have 4 new starters from last year and they are already banged up on the line. With Wilson’s mobility compromised, this could be a long day for the Seattle offense. Similar to when they traveled to LA to face the Rams a few weeks ago, who also have a solid defensive line, and lost 9-3. If Wilson doesn’t play, which he may not, the Seahawks will go with rookie Trevon Boykin. Long travel to the east coast and an early start time don’t favor the Hawks here. This is a huge game for the Jets who are 1-2 on the season. Seattle has played the Dolphins, Rams, and Niners so far which is lower level NFL competition. They lost one of those games and struggled to get by Miami at home. New York has played Cincy, Buffalo, and KC, two of which were playoff teams last year. Anytime we get a potential mismatch in the trenches with an underdog, we have to take a long look. Take the Jets. |
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10-02-16 | Browns v. Redskins OVER 47 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Cleveland @ Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We look for a shootout here. After a terrible offensive showing in week 1 vs Philly, the Browns offense has played well the last 2 weeks. In hindsight, we understand the 10 spot vs the Eagle defense as they have been dominant allowing only 17 points in 2 games since. Cleveland actually outgained Baltimore & Miami each of the last 2 weeks and scored 44 points combined putting up 817 yards on the process. We really like the way the Washington offense is playing as well. They’ve scored 23 & 29 points the last 2 weeks and they’ve actually had chances to put up quite a bit more. They’ve left quite a few points on the field. To give you an idea, the Skins have punted only 4 times in the last 2 games. So we have two offenses that are playing well vs two bad defenses. Both stop units are allowing over 400 YPG and they sit at or over 6 YPP allowed. Cleveland has allowed 29, 25, and 30 points. Washington has allowed 38, 27, and 27 points. This number is set too low. Take the OVER. |
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10-01-16 | Utah v. California -2.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California (-) over Utah, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET: Game #184 |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 46 | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points - Miami @ Cincinnati, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET Cincy has struggled to put points on the board this year but they have put up solid yardage. They have scored 16, 17, and 23 points, however against defenses not named Denver, the Bengals have averaged almost 400 YPG (397 to be exact). They are obviously moving the ball averaging over 6 YPP so the points will come in due time. That starts tonight vs a Miami defense that has looked shaky the last 2 weeks. The Fins have allowed 31 & 24 points each of the last 2 weeks vs teams with big inexperience at the QB position. Last week Cleveland rookie QB Cody Kessler put up 24 points and 244 yards passing in his first ever start. A week earlier, the Pats Jimmy Garoppolo put up 31 points and 233 yards passing in his 2nd start ever. Both teams eclipsed 400 yards of total offense on Miami’s defense. We look for Cincy to do the same. Offensively, Miami has actually looked very good since their tough outing to start the season @ Seattle. In the last 2 games they’ve topped 400 yards in each and scored 24 & 30 points. The Bengal defense has been a disappointment this year allowed 22 or more points in all 3 games. Both offenses are ranked in the top 5 in the NFL in pace averaging one snap every 25 seconds. This line has risen from 44 to 46.5 and we agree with the move. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +1 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Jags are now 0-2 and backed into a must win corner. We felt they would be improved this year and their stats in the first two games were actually solid. They outgained Green Bay and had a chance to win late but lost a tight one. After that emotional setback, Jacksonville had to travel cross country to San Diego last Sunday. They laid an egg getting whipped 38-14. However they did outgain San Diego with some offensive movement late in the game but 3 turnovers and a flat as a pancake showing did them in. We expect them to play much better this week and they get one of their top offensive weapons back at RB Ivory is expected to make his season debut. Baltimore is 2-0 and this game isn’t nearly as important to them. Let’s face it. The Ravens are undefeated but have played two of the worst teams in the NFL and have not looked dominant in either game. They topped Buffalo 13-7 at home and then had to come from behind to win @ Cleveland last week. The Browns just out to a 20-2 lead in the first quarter and then proceeded to lay an egg and score zippo the rest of the way and Baltimore won 25-20. The Ravens are on the road for the 2nd straight week and since 2012 this team has just a 9-16 record away from home. Jags are the play here. |
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09-25-16 | Vikings v. Panthers -7 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We swallowed the point last week with the Panthers over the 49ers and it turned out pretty well for us with Carolina winning 46-27 as a 13-point chalk. The Panthers dominated that game with +10 first downs, 430 yards of total O and a +12 minute time of possession edge. Now the Panthers should be focused on a Minnesota team that is 2-0 and the defending NFC North Champs. But we're not sold on the Vikings and have found some holes or chinks in their armor. They stand 2-0 with wins over the Tennessee Titans who had just 3 wins last year and a Green Bay team that is just 6-8 SU their last 14 games dating back to last season. In two games this year the Vikings have less than 100 total yards of rushing and are now without RB Adrian Peterson for the year. Minnesota was outgained in the opener by the Titans and barely outgained the Packers last week in their grand opening of their new stadium. Carolina has one of the best offenses in the NFL and have way too many great statistical rankings to list here (OK, we'll give a few: #2 in 3rd down conversions, 1st scoring 33PPG, 5th points per play, 3rd yards per game at 431). While the Vikings are one dimensional offensively right now and over-rated defensively based on the fact they've benefitted from 6 turnovers in the first two games of the season. In terms of 'O' the Vikes are 28th worst in yards per game at 292, 26th in yards per play, last in rushing and 17th in scoring offense at 21PPG. Carolina has won 14 straight home games and are 11-5 their last 16 as a home chalk. Lay the points with the Panthers. |
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09-25-16 | Lions v. Packers OVER 47 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Detroit @ Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Being located in Wisconsin we obviously pay extra attention to the Packers and after two horrible offensive showings we expect a breakout game for Rodgers and company on Sunday against a banged up Lions defense. On the other side of the ball we expect the Lions to put up points too in what sets up to be a high scoring shootout. Green Bay's pass defense has been suspect at best and will be tested here by the Lions and QB Stafford who is completing 67% of his pass attempts (8th best in the NFL) for 285 yards per game (7th best). The Packers have allowed 277 yards passing per game which is 20th worst in the league. In contrast to Stafford, Aaron Rodgers is completing just 57% of his pass attempts which is 29th worst in the NFL for 189.5 yards per game (31st) which is clearly and aberration. The Lions are 5th overall in the NFL at 6.3 yards per play while the Packers are 30th at 4.5YPPL, again the Packers number is not the norm. Detroit is without their three starting linebackers which will provide opportunities for short underneath routes to the tightends and running backs out of the backfield. Both of these teams played in low scoring games last week after the Packers/Jags combined for 50 points in week #1 while the Lions/Colts combined for 74 points. These two NFC North rivals will revert back to how they played in week #1 in what should be a shootout. |
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09-24-16 | Washington -12 v. Arizona | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -112 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington (-) over Arizona, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET |
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09-21-16 | Pirates -117 v. Brewers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA Wednesday MLB 10* TOP Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (-) @ Milwaukee @ 8 PM ET: The Pirates post-season chances certainly are slim but, until they're officially eliminated, Pittsburgh is proving they're not going to quit. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 8 games and their lineup has been particularly hot in their last 6 games as Pittsburgh has gone 5-1. During this red hot stretch the Bucs have averaged scoring 8.5 runs per game while pounding out an average of 11.2 hits per contest. The Brewers have been going the opposite direction as Milwaukee has lost 6 of their past 11 games. The BrewCrew lineup has been held to 3 runs or less in 6 of these 11 games and will likely again be without Ryan Braun tonight as he and his wife just welcomed their 2nd child to the family. Milwaukee will have Jimmy Nelson toeing the rubber this evening and he is 3-11 with a 5.57 ERA in his last 19 starts! Chad Kuhl gets the start for the Pirates tonight and he has been stellar on the road this season. Pittsburgh is 5-1 in Kuhl's 6 road starts and he has compiled a 2.80 ERA while holding hitters to a .211 batting average away from home. Milwaukee has been held to 8 hits or less in 9 of their last 10 games. The Pirates have pounded out at least 11 hits in 5 of their last 6 games. The Brewers are 39-66 against right-handed starters this season. The Pirates are on a 138-87 run against teams with a losing record. The low price on the money line makes Pittsburgh a very attractive small road fave. Bet the Pirates Wednesday for a TOP play! |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET We’ll gladly fade the rookie QB Carson Wentz making the first road start of his career AND on Monday Night! Wentz looked solid last week in the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field. And let’s not forget they were facing the hapless Cleveland Browns who some experts predict will be the worst NFL team in years. We were actually on Cleveland last week and if they can’t show up and play well (they didn’t) against an average team with a rookie QB, we agree the Browns are now officially in big trouble. Back to this game…Chicago battled Houston, a playoff team from last year, fairly well last week on the road. The Bears led entering the 4th quarter before falling 23-14. That loss makes this a huge home game for them especially with another road game on deck @ Dallas next week. Despite the loss last week, head coach John Fox has proven he can turn teams around quickly and we expect Chicago to be much improved. Fox took over Carolina in 2002 and went 7-9 his first year followed up by 11-5 in year 2. He then took over Denver in 2011 and went just 8-8 but followed that up with a 13-3 mark in his second season. It’s now his 2nd season in Chicago. Versus a rookie coach and rookie QB we look for Fox and the Bears to pick up a must win at home on Monday night. Lay it. |
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09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 43 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43, Green Bay @ Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET More often than not if we’re zeroing in on a total in a division game, we lean UNDER. Long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games. Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent. That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams. Entering this season, the overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span. We rate BOTH of these defenses ahead of their offenses at this point and yes that includes Green Bay. Truth be told, the Packers offense was pretty average last year putting up just 23 PPG and we consider them a work in progress early in the season. Jordy Nelson returns but he’ll take awhile to get back into top form. Last week the Packer offense didn’t even reach 300 yards of total offense vs Jacksonville. Now they face a Minnesota defense that is very solid and the strength of the Viking team. Minnesota put up 25 points last week but 14 of those were from the defense. They only scored 1 offensive TD. They move to Bradford at QB this week but he’s only been with the team for 2 weeks so don’t expect any offensive explosions vs this solid Green Bay defense. We like the UNDER as the Packers & Vikings open the brand new US Bank stadium. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 94 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -13 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re not into laying huge numbers in the NFL very often, however if there was ever a spot to do it, this is it and we will. The Panthers obviously have Super Bowl aspirations and with their opening week loss @ Denver, they can’t afford to lose this one. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this game as well having played on their opener on Thursday. San Fran, on the other hand, had to play on Monday night and looked very good in their 28-0 win. Now on a short week they have to travel to the east coast to face one of the top teams in the NFL. We saw a similar situation last year when the Niners opened on Monday night with a home win over Minnesota and then had to travel to Pittsburgh in week 2. The result of that game? Steelers 43, Niners 18. The San Francisco defense looked good shutting down the Rams horrendous offense. It will be a different story this week facing a Carolina offense that led the league in scoring last year at 31 PPG. Offensively, the Niners have one of the weakest passing attacks in the NFL behind QB Gabbert. They must run the ball well to be successful. They did just that vs the Rams but now face a rested and angry Carolina defense that didn’t play well in week 1 with Denver running the ball very well. That’s the same Panther defense that allowed only 86 YPG rushing last year (4th in the NFL) so you can bet they’ll be ready here. If SF gets down big, which we predict they will, they have very little “come back” ability. This game has 28-7 or 35-10 written all over it. Carolina in a blowout. |
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09-18-16 | Saints +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +4.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re surprised to see the Giants as such a hefty favorite here. We were on the GMen last week vs the Cowboys and got a push, however we weren’t fairly underwhelmed with their performance. They were playing a Dallas team starting a rookie QB and needed a late TD (6:00 minutes remaining) to get a 1-point win. On top of that the Giants had fewer first downs and less yardage. Not very impressive. Now off an important division win we can see this one as not being quite as important as it is to the Saints. That’s because New Orleans lost at home 35-34 to the Raiders who scored late and went for 2 to get the win. The Saints blew a 14 point 3rd quarter lead but had more first downs and outgained Oakland. Drew Brees was fantastic throwing for 423 yards and 4 TD’s. We expect him to have a huge day against a New York defense that allowed rookie Dak Prescott to throw for 227 yards last week. This one is probably going to be a shootout with the total set a 53. Even if New Orleans gets behind, they are not out of this one with their potent offense. Their “back door ability” if they do get behind has to be taken into account as well. The Giants haven’t had a great home field advantage as they’ve won only 4 of their last 13 games here. We look for this one to go to the wire and we’ll grab the generous points. |
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09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Rotation #174 - 10* TOP Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET: Oklahoma State certainly struggled last week hosting Central Michigan and, as a 20 point favorite, that certainly should not have happened. However, even with a game not played well, the Cowboys still should have won the game by a 27-24 count. Oklahoma State had the ball and was running the clock out when an intentional grounding penalty on fourth down resulted and the referees ended up making a mistake as they allowed the Chippewas to have down (ball was around midfield) even though the clock was at zero. By rule, the game truly should have already been over. However, the fact is that a mistake was made and, Central Michigan ended up with an unbelievable win when they completed a hail mary pass that was short of the end zone but then was lateraled for the game-winning touchdown. The Cowboys know they gave a poor effort last week but they also know they didn't deserve to lose the game. Coach Mike Gundy is in his 12th year with Oklahoma State and, as such, he is veteran presence for a team that also came into this season with plenty of returning talent. OSU returned 16 starters from last year and also returned a total of 38 players that were on the two-deep bowl roster. This type of experienced team is going to come out fighting hard this week after what happened last week. It is a mature group both physically and mentally and the Cowboys won 10 games last year and are catching Pittsburgh at the perfect time too. The Panthers are off of an in-state rivalry win over Penn State and now are traveling to face a talented Big 12 team. Pitt hasn't had to travel to face a Big 12 school in over 10 years and this is truly a tough travel spot considering the Panthers have their ACC opener on deck. While it is true that Oklahoma State also has their conference opener on deck, the Cowboys scheduling spot is much easier as they are playing their 3rd straight home game to open up the season. The Cowboys have a bit of an "us against the world" attitude this week and they have resolved to put last week's loss behind them by coming out with an "A game" effort that should leave no doubt on the scoreboard. Even with last week's loss, Oklahoma State is on a 27-14 ATS run as a home favorite against FBS schools. The Panthers season opener this year was against an FCS school so Pittsburgh is getting their first truly tough test on the road this week. The Panthers relied heavily on their ground game to get past Penn State last week but Oklahoma State is allowing only 2.1 yards per carry so far this season. In terms of the aerial attacks of these two teams there truly is no comparison as the Cowboys were 7th in the nation last year with 353 passing yards per game while Pitt was 99th with only 190.6 yards per game through the air. The Panthers will want to control the trenches and get their ground game going but the Cowboys have been strong against the run as noted above and also are going to be extremely physical in this game at the line of scrimmage because this team is extremely fired up after taking the ultimate unthinkable loss last week. Pitt is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Look for home domination in Stillwater, OK Saturday afternoon. |
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09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills OVER 40 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 40 Points, NY Jets @ Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS This total opened 42 and has been pushed down to 40. Now we feel the value is on the OVER and we’ll grab it. Last year’s two totals in this AFC East match up were 41.5 and 41. Both went under hitting 39 each time, however a lot of points were left on the field. The Jets lost both games 22-17 but had the ball deep in Buffalo territory in both games only to come up short. In the first game last year, the Jets actually threw 3 interception in their final 3 possessions. Buffalo struggled offensively last week @ Baltimore scoring just 7 points but they only ran 48 plays (Baltimore ran 66). We expect them to put more on the board this week as they have scored at least 20 in 9 straight games vs the Jets. New York looked solid offensively last week vs a very good Cincy defense putting up 22 points on 5.2 YPP. Weather looks perfect and we like both to get to 20 here pushing this OVER the total. |
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09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets -1 over Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS Both teams are 0-1 so the desperation will be alive for each. With that being said, if both bring their “A” games, the Jets are simply the better team. The Bills offense looked horrendous against a decent but not great Baltimore defense. Buffalo had only 160 total yards on just 3.3 yards per play. They crossed midfield only TWICE the enter game. Now they face a Jets defense that ranked 5th in the NFL last season and looked very solid against a potent Bengal offense last week. Meanwhile the Jets offense looked solid scoring 22 points on 5.2 YPP vs a very good Cincy defense. The Bengals kicked a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining to pick up the 23-22 win. The flyboys scored on 3 of their 5 first half possessions and had a 22 yard FG blocked on one of this first half drives. The Jets will have a little extra motivation here as well as they lost both meetings last year by the same exact 22-17 score. A closer look reveals that New York actually outplayed Buffalo and turnovers were the difference (as they are in most NFL games). In the two games combined, the Jets had 30 first downs (to 31 for Buffalo), 618 yards (to 575 for Buffalo), 5.4 yards per play (to 4.2 YPPG for Buffalo), and a whopping 7 turnovers for the Jets (just 1 for Buffalo). Even with that turnover disparity, the Jets had the ball deep in Buffalo territory late the game with a chance to win. In BOTH games. Where the line sits we basically have to pick the winner and we think that will be the better team – J-E-T-S! |
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09-13-16 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA Tuesday MLB Top 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners @ 10:05 ET: Seattle will be facing the Angels Alex Meyer and the 6'9 right-hander has struggled in his limited big league appearances to date. This truly should not come as a big surprise as Meyer compiled a 4.79 ERA and was hammered with a .281 batting average against at the AAA level in the minor leagues last year. Meyer also has not built up a lot of stamina yet for pitching deep at the MLB level and this should help our cause here as the Angels bullpen has been getting extra work over the past week plus with many extended efforts due to short outings from the starters. Meyer only lasted 3 and 1 / 3 innings in his start last week and has already given up 11 walks and 13 hits (including 3 homers) in his 9 and 1 / 3 innings at the MLB level. Facing the red hot lineup of the Mariners is a tough draw for the big righty as Seattle has surged back into the Wild Card race thanks to 6 straight wins! The M's have won 8 of their last 11 games with production at the plate leading the way. The Mariners have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 11 games. Also, Seattle has averaged 11 hits per game in their last 13 games. The Mariners won't be the only lineup pounding out hits tonight. This is not a good match-up for Seattle's Taijuan Walker as no matter how much he wants payback for his ugly start against the Angels last week, it has been proven they are a "match-up issue" for him. In his last two starts against Los Angeles (both within the last 6 weeks), Walker has been rocked for 12 runs (11 earned) in only 4 and 2 / 3 innings of work while giving up 4 homers and only striking out 1 batter. Will the third time against the Angels be "the charm" for Walker? It is highly unlikely when you take a look at the other 4 starts he has made since July 1st that were not against the Angels. Walker has given up 15 earned runs in 22 innings over those four other starts. He just doesn't "have it" right now and the Angels rank 7th out of 30 MLB teams with a .263 batting average against righties this season. The Mariners are right in front of LA at the #6 spot with a .264 batting average versus right-handers this year. As you can see, we have every reason to expect a high-scoring game to erupt in Anaheim tonight. The over is 13-6 this season in games where Seattle is on the road and priced between -100 and -125. Bet the OVER! |
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09-12-16 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5, LA Rams @ San Francisco, Monday at 10:20 PM ET We like UNDER in the LA Rams versus the SF 49ers on Monday night. Last year in the two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals they combined to score 33 and 35 points with the later coming in OT. Vegas had Totals on those two contests of 41 and 39 respectively and now have a much higher number here in the season opener. The Niners had the lowest scoring offense in the NFL last year at just 14.9PPG while the Rams ranked slightly better at 17.5PPG which was 4th worst. Neither team has 'big play' capability in the passing game as they lack playmakers at the wideouts and neither team has a starting QB to get them the ball. No two teams in the NFL have worst QB situations than these two clubs as the Rams are forced to start Case Keenum (47.7QBR) while the 49ers counter with Blaine Gabbert (42.2QBR) or the other guy who I won't even mention. Los Angeles (St Louis) had the worst passing game in the NFL last year at just 175YPG while the 49ers were 29th at 203.4YPG. L.A. will rely heavily on running back Todd Gurley and their defense to win games this season. Niners head coach Chip Kelly didn't produce in Philly with his vaunted college offense and it won't translate here in San Francisco, especially early on. Both defenses were better 'efficiency' wise compared to their Net Yards allowed seasonal stats last year and we expect both D-units to dominate on Monday night. 12 of the Rams 16 games last season ended with less points than tonight's Total. If you take out overtime, the 49ers and their opponents scored less than the Total on this game in 11 of their 16 games last year. The Rams are on 6-1 'under' run dating back to last year and the offense is worse than it was a season ago. The Under has cashed in 18 of the 49ers last twenty three home games. Points will be hard to come by in this one....bet UNDER! |
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09-12-16 | Steelers -3 v. Redskins | Top | 38-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Washington, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET The Redskins won the terrible NFC East by default last year despite getting outgained by an average of 28 YPG which ranked them 23rd in the NFL in that category. The NFC Least was terrible in 2015 with the 3 other teams (Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles) combining for a 17-31 record. Somebody had to win it, right? That was the Skins who had, by far, the worst point differential of all the NFL playoff teams at +9 for the entire season. There were 13 teams that had better point differentials than Washington and 22 teams that had better YPG differential. They didn’t beat a winning team all last season. While this was a playoff team last year by definition, they really weren’t good enough to be in the post-season and that was proven when wildcard team GB went into Washington and smoked the Skins 35-18 to quickly knock them out. The Steelers are the MUCH better team here. They were +45 YPG better than Washington offensively last year, +95 better in overall point differential and gave up 17 fewer YPG. Pitt is far superior at QB with Roethlisberger vs Cousins and they also have the top WR in the NFL in Antonio Brown. While RB Bell is out in this game, his back up DeAngelo Williams rushed for almost 1,000 yards last year so very little drop off there. While Washington really didn’t deserve their post-season berth last year, the Steelers beat Cincy on the road and then outplayed eventual Super Bowl Champion Denver on the road in a 23-16 loss outgaining the Broncs by 72 yards. Pitt put up almost 400 yards on a Bronco defense that allowed just 283 on the season. Now this potent Steeler offense faces a Washington D that finished 28th in YPG allowed last year. We’ll gladly lay the 3 points in this spot and take Pittsburgh. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England +6.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We realize Brady will be in street clothes watching this one and because of that this spread is set too high. Give Belichick nearly a full TD and ample time to prepare and we have a very dangerous dog here. Belichick took over as the Pats head coach in 2000 and New England has been an underdog 67 times in that span. They are 44-22-1 ATS in those games. If they are getting 6 points or more (they are currently +6) his Patriot team is 12-4 ATS (75%) with 7 of those being outright wins. You can bet Belichick will have a great game plan going into this one. Brady’s replacement, Jimmy Garappolo, looked solid in the pre-season and as long as he doesn’t make huge mistakes, New England has a chance to win this one outright. He has the top TE combo in the NFL as targets with Marcellus Bennett teaming up with Gronk (he is ? here) this year. Arizona looked absolutely terrible in the pre-season and the scary part is, even in game 3 when the starters played extensively, they were whipped by Houston and the starters only put up 10 points in the first half. QB Carson Palmer threw 2 picks and didn’t look good. The starting defense gave up 31 points in the first half of that game @ Houston. Arizona is the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year but we think they might be a bit over valued entering the season. Laying nearly a TD to New England is too high. The Pats will keep this close |
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09-11-16 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5, San Diego @ Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET It’s always smart to at least take a look at the UNDER in a divisional game in the NFL. You don’t always have to use the situation, however long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games. Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent. That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams. The overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span. This AFC West rivalry has been a strong play to the UNDER. The last 23 meeting have resulted in 15 UNDERS & 8 OVERS. The last 4 meetings have all gone UNDER with an average point total of just 30. Only 5 of the last 23 games between these two have gotten to 50 pts or higher. On top of that, KC has gone UNDER in 35 of their last 56 home games and vs the AFC West the Chiefs are 40-23 to the UNDER their last 63. We also expect a slower paced game as the Chiefs were 31st in the NFL in offensive pace last year and San Diego was middle of the pack. This number is currently in the mid-40’s and too high. Take the UNDER. |
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09-10-16 | California v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 0 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Game #392 - 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (-) vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET: After opening up at an 8 this line was down to a 7 by Thursday afternoon. The situation here is truly ideal for a San Diego State blowout and that is what makes the drop to a 7 add even more value in this spot. The fact is that the betting markets have had trouble with the Aztecs in the past and we feel this line is also well off the mark. San Diego State was "only" 7-6 ATS last season but 5 of those ATS wins beat the spread by at least 20 points. This looks like another spot where the Aztecs are very undervalued. Adding even more to this selection is the fact that California is still an over-valued team. They are off of a bye week because they were a week ahead of most everyone else with their late August game against Hawaii "down under" in Australia. That game is helping to give us value here because the Golden Bears did win that game by a big margin but it hides the fact that Cal defense did give up nearly 500 yards in that game. That was against the same Hawaii team that then went to Michigan and got rolled 63 to 6. The point is that the Cal early season win masked some major concerns with this team. The Golden Bears (with star QB Jared Goff now in the NFL with the Rams) are a team that is likely to struggle against a top rate defense like San Diego State has. With Rocky Long at the helm, the Aztecs are extremely well coached. San Diego State allowed only 287.3 yards per game last season which ranked them 5th in the nation. Many look at this game as a scheduling edge for Cal since they are coming off of a bye week. However, traveling to Australia to play inferior competition and then immediately having a two week break while trying to stay game ready isn't exactly an ideal situation. The Aztecs are truly in the ideal situation here as they have been home the entire time, hosted an outclassed New Hampshire team last week (31-0 win) so they were able to "work the rust off" after the off-season, and now they get a shot at revenge. Last year the Aztecs and coach Long were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 2 of their season when they lost 35 to 7 at Cal. Now San Diego State gets an opportunity for revenge at home and the Aztecs loss to Cal last year was their worst loss since all the way back in September of 2013 when they lost big at Ohio State. There is no doubt that coach Long will have his troops ready for this one and we expect running back Donnel Pumphrey to run wild in this one as he faces a Cal defense that was ripped for 248 yards (6.5 yards per carry) by the Rainbow Warriors. Cal ranked 109th on defense last year allowing 453.7 yards per game and that weakness is still here plus the offense only returned 3 starters from last season. Look for the home team to make it 8 in a row in this series on the West Coast. We'll lay the points with San Diego State in late night action Saturday. |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 106 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DENVER BRONCOS: It's the Super Bowl rematch as the Panthers and Broncos square off Thursday night in Denver. Let's first talk about the last meeting and the importance it has on this game and how it will impact the outcome. In the Super Bowl the Broncos defense was absolutely dominating and they essentially won the game themselves. On the other side of the football Denver had less than 200 yards of total offense, just 11 first downs but still won the game by 14-points. Why? Because the defense sacked Newton six times, forced 4 turnovers, 1 for a TD and 1 that directly led to a touchdown. Yes, the Denver D lost a few key players but our NFL insiders tells us they won't miss a beat, still have the best D-line and secondary in the NFL. Some experts feel this Denver defense might be one of the best overall units they've seen in years. In other words we don't expect a change on that side of the football for Denver so what about the offense? Former Broncos QB Peyton Manning was just 13 of 23 (56.6 percent) for 141 yards in the Super Bowl. He threw no touchdowns and one interception for a 56.6 passer rating, which ranks as the fourth-worst in Super Bowl history for winning quarterbacks. We're pretty confident young QB Trevor Siemian, who has had a great training camp, can manage this offense with the returning talent on the roster. Not to mention the Panthers start two rookie CB's which has only happened one other time since 1991. The Panthers were one of the league's best offenses statistically last year with QB Newton, RB Stewart and TE Olson but let's not forget they played the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL last season. Denver has 18 of the 22 overall starters from last year's team, are playing at home and getting points. In direct comparison, the Panthers were -4.5-point favorites last year on a neutral field and are now laying nearly the same number in Denver? Denver is 16-3 SU their last nineteen at home and have been a home dog of 3-point or less just three times in that span (3-0 SU/ATS). Carolina is 0-4 ATS their last four road games and while this is a revenge game the value clearly lies with Denver. Take the home team! |
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09-04-16 | Notre Dame v. Texas +4.5 | Top | 47-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Tonight we play on Texas plus the points over Notre Dame. Last year when these same two teams met the Irish were 8.5-point chalks at home and they destroyed the Longhorns 38-3 in racking up 527 total yards of offense while allowing just 163. That was last year in South Bend and the circumstances are much different this year with the game in Texas AND with the Longhorns returning 79% of their offense and defense from last year’s squad. Texas is loaded with talent and are expected to be much better this season in coach Charlie Strong’s third season. Our predictors expect them to be at least 3-points per game better offensively and the same defensively. This is the best O line in the Charlie Strong era, and it should be able to wear down a smallish (and lacking depth) d-front of the Irish as the game goes on. Strong realized he need to improve his offense so he brought in assistant coach Sterlin Gilbert and he’s been tasked with installing the same offense that has powered Baylor to two Big 12 titles in three years. You can expect success on the ground here with the power run game as tailbacks D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren run behind a solid O-line which should put the Longhorns in plenty of 3rd and short and take pressure off freshman QB Buechele. Yes, Notre Dame has talent offensively, especially at QB with Zaire and Kizer, along with RB’s Folston and Adams, but they lack playmakers at the wideout positions and there is some chemistry issues with the rotating QB’s. Texas is at home playing with revenge in their season opener and getting value here as they should be a slight favorite according to our early season power ratings. Grab the points with Texas. |
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09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 19 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Game #183 - 10* TOP Clemson Tigers -7 @ Auburn Tigers @ 9 ET: Clemson was perfect last season until coming up just short against Alabama in the Championship Game. Although they lost 7 starters from last year's defense, this was similar to the situation going into the prior season as well - Clemson last 8 starters on defense heading into 2015. Of course 2015 was still a huge success and similar results should be expected in 2016. The defensive system continues to thrive at Clemson and the offense returns 8 starters including star QB Deshaun Watson. Under coach Dabo Swinney Clemson has gone 3-0 ATS in their 3 meetings with Auburn. Though Auburn is an SEC team they only went 2-6 both SU and ATS in conference action last season. Auburn will be trying to stop a Clemson offense that ranked among the top teams in the nation last year and Watson is such a huge threat both through the air and on the ground. The Auburn defense overall was ranked 13th in the SEC and now has its 3rd defensive coordinator in the last three years. Additionally, there is concern at the linebacker position as Auburn plays a 4-3 defense and lost all 3 of their starting linebackers from last season's team. We just don't see the Auburn defense (ranked 71st in the nation for yardage allowed) as being able to slow down Clemson much at all. The dynamic offensive attack of Clemson will prove to be too much here and Auburn doesn't have the offense to keep up. Auburn only has 6 returning starters on offense and the team was ranked 94th in the nation in yards per game on that side of the ball. We expect an early season road rout here and we're laying the points with Clemson Saturday night. |
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08-27-16 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
ASA Saturday TOP 10* MLB Total of the Year: OVER 9.5 in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8 ET: The Indians hammered the Rangers, including their AL-worst bullpen, in yesterday's 12-1 blowout win. Yes, despite having the best record in the American League, Texas has the highest bullpen ERA of any team in the AL. How do they win so many games then? It's about clutch hitting and solid starting pitching for the Rangers. The concern for Texas today is that they certainly are unlikely to get solid starting pitching here. AJ Griffin gets the start for the Rangers and he has been getting hit hard for two months straight now. Dating back to early July Griffin has been hammered to the tune of 57 hits in 47 and 1/3 innings. The Texas right-hander has a 6.44 ERA over his last 8 starts. The over is 5-1 in Griffin's home starts this season. Carlos Carrasco will be toeing the rubber for the Indians this evening at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Even though he is off of a strong start that came at Oakland and the A's have been one of the weakest lineups in baseball this season. Note that in his last visit to Texas, Carrasco was rocked for 5 earned runs. Also, in his 5 starts prior to the strong start against the Athletics, the Indians right-hander had compiled a 6.23 ERA as he allowed at least 3 earned runs in every single start and also allowed at least one home run in each of the 5 starts. The over is 12-4-2 in the last 18 games between these clubs as this continues to be a very high-scoring series. The over is 7-3 this season when Texas is off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. Also, the over is 22-13 this season in Rangers home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. We're grabbing the OVER in Texas as our MLB Total of the Year going Saturday evening. Best of luck, ASA. |
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08-27-16 | Giants -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants -2.5 over NY Jets, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - NFLX Game of the Year Let’s face it, the Giants offense has looked terrible this pre-season. They’ve scored only 10 points and were shutout in their most recent game @ Buffalo. They’ve already turned the ball over 8 times! Eli Manning has thrown only 9 passes during the pre-season and didn’t even suit up for their first game vs Miami. The Giants were embarrassed 21-0 in their most recent game in Buffalo. It was actually worse than it looked as NYG had only 7 first downs and 166 total yards. They were a woeful 1 of 11 on 3rd downs. This 0-2 team needs a win and needs to look good in this game vs cross-town rival Jets. Look for a big bounce back as new head coach McAdoo wants to win this game after their poor performance thus far. He got his team’s attention this week in practice and the urgency and tempo was much better according to starting QB Manning. The Giants will be ready on Saturday night. Offensive coordinator summed up the importance of this game vs the Jets. “It is very important for us,” he said this week. “It's no mystery, it was very disappointing in a lot of areas the last time we were out.” The Jets are 1-1 on the pre-season and have been outgained by just over 100 yards. Their main concern in this game is to get their running game going. In their most recent game vs Washington the Jets only ran the ball 9 times. Expect a heavy dose of the run here which is playing right into the Giants hands. As poor as they’ve looked offensively, the Giants run defense has been solid. They allowed only 3.3 YPC in their opener vs Miami and last week Buffalo only had 70 yards rushing on 1.9 YPC. This one sets up nicely for the Giants. We like the motivated team to get their first pre-season win. |
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08-27-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Bears | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -1.5 over Chicago, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET Both teams are 0-2 coming into this one but they each arrived at their record in completely different ways. In their 2 losses, the Bears have been outgained by 260 total yards, outscored by 23 points, and out “first downed” by 16. Their starting offense has scored a total of 11 points in 2 games. The Chiefs are also 0-2 but they’ve outgained their opponents by 140 yards, been outscored by just 2 points (both 1 point losses), and they are +7 in first downs. KC has blown 2 fourth quarter leads including a home loss to Seattle which came on a Seahawks hail mary pass as time ran out. The Bears offense has struggled this pre-season partly due to their banged up and inconsistent offensive line. That won’t change here against a KC defense that is aggressive and averaged almost 3 sacks per game last year (7th in the NFL). While Chicago has scored only 11 points with their starters, KC’s starting QB Alex Smith has led his team on 5 drives this pre-season and they have scored points on 4 of them. He’s 12 of 16 for 173 yards and has led the Chiefs on TD drives to open each of their 2 games this season. With starters expected to play into the 2nd half for both teams, we give a big edge to Kansas City who simply has the better team. The extra motivation of getting their first win after two down to the wire losses only helps here. Lay the small number with the CHIEFS! |
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08-20-16 | Astros v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
ASA Saturday MLB TOP 10* OVER 9 / 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros @ 7 ET: There were 9 homers hit in yesterday's game and we are expecting another slug-fest in Baltimore Saturday evening. The Astros have now won 5 of their last 8 road games and Houston has averaged 7.6 runs per game in these 8 contests away from home. The Orioles have reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 8 games and have averaged 6.1 runs per game in these 8 games. Baltimore will have Chris Tillman on the mound and, though he has pitched well this season, he is currently having some issues with his shoulder. Tillman enters this start having allowed a homer in each of his last 3 starts. In his start prior to these 3 (and also his most recent home start) Tillman was rocked for 6 earned runs in an outing in which he only lasted 5 innings. The way the ball is flying right now at Camden Yards it is likely to be a tough evening for him as well as the Astros Mike Fiers. The over is 8-2 in Fiers 10 road starts this season and he has a 6.40 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in those 10 outings. The Astros right-hander comes into this start having allowed 5 homers in his last two starts. In Astros road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is on a 26-11 run! The over is 27-18 in Orioles games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. 5 of the O's last 6 games have gone over the total and 5 straight Astros games have gone over the total. Both bullpens also had extra work in yesterday's slug-fest and that further strengthens this play tonight. We'll grab the over in Baltimore for a TOP 10* Saturday! |
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08-17-16 | Brewers v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Wednesday MLB 10* TOP Chicago Cubs Run Line -1.5 runs -130 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8 ET: The Cubs swept the Brewers in yesterday's double-header and Milwaukee had to use 10 and 2 / 3 innings of bullpen work to get through the two games. That doesn't bode well for the Brewers today because their starting pitcher, Jimmy Nelson, has not gone longer than 5 innings in any of his last 5 starts. Of course another big concern for Milwaukee tonight is the simple fact that Nelson is in awful current form. He has given up 21 earned runs in the 18 innings he's logged over his last 4 starts. Of course the Cubs are a huge favorite tonight as a result but, by taking them on the run line, we can lay a moderate price on a Cubbies team that should win this in an absolute blowout. The Brewers have lost 11 of Nelson's last 13 starts and 10 of those 11 losses have been by a multiple run margin including 9 of the 11 by at least 3 runs. The Cubs will have Jon Lester toeing the rubber this evening and he has been phenomenal in his home starts this season. The Cubbies are 9-2 in his 11 home starts this season and Lester has compiled a 2.07 ERA in those outings. The Cubs have won 17 of Lester's starts this season and 12 of the 17 wins have come by at least 2 runs. Overall, the Cubs have been hot and 8 of their last 9 wins have come by at least 2 runs. We'll "lay it" and grab the small money odds with the Cubs tonight on the run line for a TOP PLAY at -1.5 runs -130 Wednesday. |
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08-03-16 | Hamilton -4.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-37 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
We love the spot to play on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats minus the 4-points @ the Winnipeg Blue Bombers tonight. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats look to remain unbeaten on the road this season and we feel they'll do so over a mediocre Winnipeg team that has been decimated by injuries. Hamilton comes into this game off a bye and they are playing with same season revenge as they lost to Winnipeg on July 7th 24-28, despite outgaining the Blue Bombers by 70-yards. Winnipeg starting QB at the time Drew Willy had a great game by going 32 of 42 for 279 yards and a TD. The problem for the Blue Bombers is that Willy will not be the pivot in this game as he's out with an injury which means Matt Nichols gets the start. Nichols had a decent start against Edmonton in his last game but now he faces a Ticats defense that is playing lights out right now with 8 forced fumbles (second in CFL) and a league-high 20 sacks. Hamilton’s front seven, meanwhile, has been the best in the league through the first part of the season with all four of the starters on the defensive line having registered at least two sacks. Another negative for the Blue Bombers offense is that they are playing without their top two receivers in Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler making it that much more difficult for their offense. Hamilton's offense is in good hands with QB Jeremiah Masoli who is coming off a record breaking performance against Edmonton where he threw for 391 yards on 31 of 38 passing with 3 TD's and 0 INT's. Masoli will look to make amends against the Blue Bombers after a 29 of 39 for 367 yards but 2 crucial INT's in the first meeting. Hamilton is 23-9 ATS their last 32 road games and they've won 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Blue Bombers. Lay the points with Hamilton tonight. |
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08-03-16 | Rangers -102 v. Orioles | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
ASA MLB 10* TOP Texas Rangers Money Line -105 @ Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - The Rangers are looking to bounce back after yesterday's 5-1 loss and they certainly have the right guy on the mound to get the job done. Cole Hamels gets the start for Texas and the southpaw is poised to get them right back into the win column. The Rangers had won 7 of their last 9 games before yesterday's loss. Texas has won 9 of the last 10 starts that Hamels has made. The Rangers ace left-hander has had only 2 sub-par outings in his last 10 starts. In the other 8 starts he has allowed a TOTAL of only 6 earned runs. The Orioles have been struggling in recent match-ups with left-handed pitching and Hamels has held Baltimore to 6 earned runs while striking out 24 in his last 21 and 1 / 3 innings against them. Hamels is 8-1 in his road starts this season and the Orioles Kevin Gausman is unlikely to be able to match him here in terms of putting up zeroes on the scoreboard. Gausman has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Rangers. He comes into this start off of an ugly outing at Toronto where he gave up 3 homers! The O's right-hander is 2-8 on the season and have totaled just 20 hits in their last 3 games against a left-handed starter. This is a mismatch with Hamels over Gausman and line value is being offered since Texas is on the road. The Orioles have won 2 straight but they lost 5 in a row prior to that. The Rangers are 24-14 in their games against teams with a winning record this season and we expect another big win in a bounce back spot here. We'll grab the Rangers on the money line for a Top Play Wednesday evening. |
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ASA ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks UNDER 44 | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 30 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Florida State -10 v. George Washington | Top | 67-48 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Virginia Tech +11 v. Clemson | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Wolves v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 125-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Wichita State -11 v. Colorado State | Top | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
12-01-16 | Panthers v. Red Wings +105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Pacers v. Blazers OVER 209 | Top | 109-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Purdue v. Louisville -6 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
11-29-16 | Pistons +135 v. Hornets | Top | 112-89 | Win | 135 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
11-28-16 | Celtics -5 v. Heat | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Stanford v. Seton Hall -3.5 | Top | 66-52 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
11-25-16 | Clippers v. Pistons UNDER 200 | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
11-25-16 | Texas A&M v. Virginia Tech +2.5 | Top | 68-65 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
11-23-16 | Blackhawks +140 v. Sharks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
11-23-16 | Raptors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
11-22-16 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 220.5 | Top | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
11-21-16 | Celtics -113 v. Wolves | Top | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
11-20-16 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 42.5 | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
11-20-16 | Jaguars +6 v. Lions | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
11-19-16 | Warriors v. Bucks OVER 216 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
11-19-16 | Oklahoma -3 v. West Virginia | Top | 56-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
11-17-16 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 200 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
11-16-16 | Warriors -6 v. Raptors | Top | 127-121 | Push | 0 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
11-15-16 | Hornets +1 v. Wolves | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
11-15-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -6 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
11-13-16 | Seahawks v. Patriots OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
11-12-16 | California v. Washington State -14.5 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
11-11-16 | Pacers -5 v. 76ers | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
11-10-16 | Stars v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
11-09-16 | Pistons -4 v. Suns | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
11-08-16 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
11-07-16 | Pacers v. Hornets -3 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers OVER 52.5 | Top | 41-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Eagles +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Iowa v. Penn State -6 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Wolves v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 92-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
11-04-16 | Clippers -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 99-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
11-03-16 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 212 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
11-01-16 | Bucks v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 32-33 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Patriots -6 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
10-29-16 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -8 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
10-26-16 | Heat v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 108-96 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos UNDER 40.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
10-22-16 | Arkansas +10.5 v. Auburn | Top | 3-56 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
10-17-16 | Jets +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
10-15-16 | Tulsa +21.5 v. Houston | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 44 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants +115 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Giants v. Packers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Titans +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions UNDER 46 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
10-08-16 | Washington State +6.5 v. Stanford | Top | 42-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
10-03-16 | Giants +4.5 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4 | Top | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Seahawks v. Jets +1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Browns v. Redskins OVER 47 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Utah v. California -2.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 46 m | Show |
09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 46 | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Vikings v. Panthers -7 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Lions v. Packers OVER 47 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Washington -12 v. Arizona | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -112 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
09-21-16 | Pirates -117 v. Brewers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 43 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 94 h 53 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Saints +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills OVER 40 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
09-13-16 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
09-12-16 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 42 m | Show |
09-12-16 | Steelers -3 v. Redskins | Top | 38-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
09-10-16 | California v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 0 m | Show |
09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 106 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
09-04-16 | Notre Dame v. Texas +4.5 | Top | 47-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 19 m | Show |
08-27-16 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
08-27-16 | Giants -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
08-27-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Bears | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
08-20-16 | Astros v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
08-17-16 | Brewers v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
08-03-16 | Hamilton -4.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-37 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
08-03-16 | Rangers -102 v. Orioles | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 6 m | Show |